Sample records for projected precipitation patterns

  1. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Combined Precipitation Dataset (United States)

    Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Arkin, Philip; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Gruber, Arnold; Janowiak, John; McNab, Alan; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo


    The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has released the GPCP Version 1 Combined Precipitation Data Set, a global, monthly precipitation dataset covering the period July 1987 through December 1995. The primary product in the dataset is a merged analysis incorporating precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit -satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The dataset also contains the individual input fields, a combination of the microwave and infrared satellite estimates, and error estimates for each field. The data are provided on 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude global grids. Preliminary analyses show general agreement with prior studies of global precipitation and extends prior studies of El Nino-Southern Oscillation precipitation patterns. At the regional scale there are systematic differences with standard climatologies.

  2. Precipitation patterns during channel flow (United States)

    Jamtveit, B.; Hawkins, C.; Benning, L. G.; Meier, D.; Hammer, O.; Angheluta, L.


    Mineral precipitation during channelized fluid flow is widespread in a wide variety of geological systems. It is also a common and costly phenomenon in many industrial processes that involve fluid flow in pipelines. It is often referred to as scale formation and encountered in a large number of industries, including paper production, chemical manufacturing, cement operations, food processing, as well as non-renewable (i.e. oil and gas) and renewable (i.e. geothermal) energy production. We have studied the incipient stages of growth of amorphous silica on steel plates emplaced into the central areas of the ca. 1 meter in diameter sized pipelines used at the hydrothermal power plant at Hellisheidi, Iceland (with a capacity of ca 300 MW electricity and 100 MW hot water). Silica precipitation takes place over a period of ca. 2 months at approximately 120°C and a flow rate around 1 m/s. The growth produces asymmetric ca. 1mm high dendritic structures ';leaning' towards the incoming fluid flow. A novel phase-field model combined with the lattice Boltzmann method is introduced to study how the growth morphologies vary under different hydrodynamic conditions, including non-laminar systems with turbulent mixing. The model accurately predicts the observed morphologies and is directly relevant for understanding the more general problem of precipitation influenced by turbulent mixing during flow in channels with rough walls and even for porous flow. Reference: Hawkins, C., Angheluta, L., Hammer, Ø., and Jamtveit, B., Precipitation dendrites in channel flow. Europhysics Letters, 102, 54001

  3. Projections of precipitation, air temperature and potential ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Precipitation and air temperature records from 6 sites in Rwanda in the period from 1964 to 2010 are used for past/present climate assessment. Future climate projections (2010-2099) based on 3 general circulation models and 2 emission scenarios (A2 and B1) are used for climate projections. Precipitation, air temperature ...

  4. Probability Distribution and Projected Trends of Daily Precipitation in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAO; Li-Ge; ZHONG; Jun; SU; Bu-Da; ZHAI; Jian-Qing; Macro; GEMMER


    Based on observed daily precipitation data of 540 stations and 3,839 gridded data from the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-Climate Limited-area Modeling(CCLM)for 1961–2000,the simulation ability of CCLM on daily precipitation in China is examined,and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern is revealed.By applying the probability distribution and extreme value theory to the projected daily precipitation(2011–2050)under SRES A1B scenario with CCLM,trends of daily precipitation series and daily precipitation extremes are analyzed.Results show that except for the western Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China,distribution patterns of the kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other;their spatial correlation coefcients are above 0.75.The CCLM can well capture the distribution characteristics of daily precipitation over China.It is projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region,central-eastern Northeast China and Inner Mongolia,the kurtosis and skewness will increase significantly,and precipitation extremes will increase during 2011–2050.The projected increase of maximum daily rainfall and longest non-precipitation period during flood season in the aforementioned regions,also show increasing trends of droughts and floods in the next 40 years.

  5. Isotopic composition of precipitation in the Mediterranean Basin in relation to air circulation patterns and climate. Final report of a coordinated research project 2000-2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The IAEA has operated the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) since 1961. There has been an increased need for GNIP data following the recognition of the role of precipitation stable isotopes in better simulating the hydrologic cycle in climate models. The isotopic composition of precipitation is closely related to rain formation conditions, i.e. with the temperature of formation, the origin of air masses, and the degree and mechanism of rainout. Over the last twenty years, use of GNIP data in climate model has indicated a need for a much more refined, process-based understanding of isotope variations in the hydrological cycle. This coordinated research project (CRP) was initiated with the aim of collecting new data on higher spatial density and temporal frequency to improve our knowledge of environmental isotope variations in atmospheric waters. The Mediterranean region was chosen for this study so that climatic and meteorological conditions, which govern the rain formation process, and their variations along east-west and north-south directions, could be investigated. In addition, the first steps of the hydrological cycle, that is evaporation from seawater and condensation of atmospheric vapour could also be studied. The IAEA invited scientists from institutes in Mediterranean countries who have already been involved in studies related to the isotopic composition of precipitation to take part in this CRP, which was initiated in 2000. This publication is a summary of the results achieved in the CRP. The overall achievements are presented as the executive summary, and the detailed findings are presented in each contribution. These results were presented in the final research coordination meeting, held in Vienna from 15 to 19 March 2004. The results of this CRP are relevant to the Member State scientists conducting hydrological research. In addition, the results would contribute to the IAEA programme on water resources, in particular to its activities

  6. Patterning of alloy precipitation through external pressure (United States)

    Franklin, Jack A.

    Due to the nature of their microstructure, alloyed components have the benefit of meeting specific design goals across a wide range of electrical, thermal, and mechanical properties. In general by selecting the correct alloy system and applying a proper heat treatment it is possible to create a metallic sample whose properties achieve a unique set of design requirements. This dissertation presents an innovative processing technique intended to control both the location of formation and the growth rates of precipitates within metallic alloys in order to create multiple patterned areas of unique microstructure within a single sample. Specific experimental results for the Al-Cu alloy system will be shown. The control over precipitation is achieved by altering the conventional heat treatment process with an external surface load applied to selected locations during the quench and anneal. It is shown that the applied pressures affect both the rate and directionality of the atomic diffusion in regions close to the loaded surfaces. The control over growth rates is achieved by altering the enthalpic energy required for successful diffusion between lattice sites. Changes in the local chemical free energy required to direct the diffusion of atoms are established by introducing a non-uniform elastic strain energy field within the samples created by the patterned surface pressures. Either diffusion rates or atomic mobility can be selected as the dominating control process by varying the quench rate; with slower quenches having greater control over the mobility of the alloying elements. Results have shown control of Al2Cu precipitation over 100 microns on mechanically polished surfaces. Further experimental considerations presented will address consistency across sample ensembles. This includes repeatable pressure loading conditions and the chemical interaction between any furnace environments and both the alloy sample and metallic pressure loading devices.

  7. Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change (United States)

    Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Pohl, Benjamin; Robson, Jon; Dong, Buwen


    The impact of the increase of greenhouse gases on Sahelian precipitation is very uncertain in both its spatial pattern and magnitude. In particular, the relative importance of internal variability versus external forcings depends on the time horizon considered in the climate projection. In this study we address the respective roles of the internal climate variability versus external forcings on Sahelian precipitation by using the data from the CESM Large Ensemble Project, which consists of a 40 member ensemble performed with the CESM1-CAM5 coupled model for the period 1920-2100. We show that CESM1-CAM5 is able to simulate the mean and interannual variability of Sahel precipitation, and is representative of a CMIP5 ensemble of simulations (i.e. it simulates the same pattern of precipitation change along with equivalent magnitude and seasonal cycle changes as the CMIP5 ensemble mean). However, CESM1-CAM5 underestimates the long-term decadal variability in Sahel precipitation. For short-term (2010-2049) and mid-term (2030-2069) projections the simulated internal variability component is able to obscure the projected impact of the external forcing. For long-term (2060-2099) projections external forcing induced change becomes stronger than simulated internal variability. Precipitation changes are found to be more robust over the central Sahel than over the western Sahel, where climate change effects struggle to emerge. Ten (thirty) members are needed to separate the 10 year averaged forced response from climate internal variability response in the western Sahel for a long-term (short-term) horizon. Over the central Sahel two members (ten members) are needed for a long-term (short-term) horizon.

  8. Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests (United States)

    Otto, Friederike E. L.; Jones, Richard G.; Halladay, Kate; Allen, Myles R.


    Tropical rainforests in Africa are one of the most under-researched regions in the world, but research in the Amazonian rainforest suggests potential vulnerability to climate change. Using the large ensemble of Atmosphere-only general circulation model (AGCM) simulations within the weather@home project, statistics of precipitation in the dry season of the Congo Basin rainforest are analysed. By validating the model simulation against observations, we could identify a good model performance for the June, July, August (JJA) dry season, but this result does need to be taken with caution as observed data are of poor quality. Additional validation methods have been used to investigate the applicability of probabilistic event attribution analysis from large model ensembles to a tropical region, in this case the Congo Basin. These methods corroborate the confidence in the model, leading us to believe the attribution result to be robust. That is, that there are no significant changes in the risk of low precipitation extremes during this dry season (JJA) precipitation in the Congo Basin. Results for the December, January, February dry season are less clear. The study highlights that attribution analysis has the potential to provide valuable scientific evidence of recent or anticipated climatological changes, especially in regions with sparse observational data and unclear projections of future changes. However, the strong influence of sea surface temperature teleconnection patterns on tropical precipitation provides more challenges in the set up of attribution studies than midlatitude rainfall. PMID:23878330

  9. A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling Future Climate Scenarios: Quantifying and Projecting Patterns of Evapotranspiration and Precipitation in the Salton Sea Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael E. Kjelland


    Full Text Available The need for improved quantitative precipitation forecasts and realistic assessments of the regional impacts of natural climate variability and climate change has generated increased interest in regional (i.e., systems-scale climate simulation. The Salton Sea Stochastic Simulation Model (S4M was developed to assist planners and residents of the Salton Sea (SS transboundary watershed (USA and Mexico in making sound policy decisions regarding complex water-related issues. In order to develop the S4M with a higher degree of climate forecasting resolution, an in-depth analysis was conducted regarding precipitation and evapotranspiration for the semiarid region of the watershed. Weather station data were compiled for both precipitation and evapotranspiration from 1980 to 2004. Several logistic regression models were developed for determining the relationships among precipitation events, that is, duration and volume, and evapotranspiration levels. These data were then used to develop a stochastic weather generator for S4M. Analyses revealed that the cumulative effects and changes of ±10 percent in SS inflows can have significant effects on sea elevation and salinity. The aforementioned technique maintains the relationships between the historic frequency distributions of both precipitation and evapotranspiration, and not as separate unconnected and constrained variables.

  10. Diabetic Ketoacidosis: Pattern of Precipitating Causes

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    Ashraf Uddin Ahmed


    Full Text Available Background: Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA is one of the most common acute complications of diabetes mellitus (DM. DKA is a recognised presenting feature of type 1 DM, but it commonly complicates previously diagnosed diabetic patients of all types, specially if they get infection or discontinue treatment. Objective: To describe the precipitating causes of DKA. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was done from September to November, 2010 in Bangladesh Institute of Research & Rehabilitation in Diabetes, Endocrine and Metabolic Disorders (BIRDEM. Diagnosed DKA cases were evaluated clinically and by laboratory investigations for identification of precipitating causes. Results: Out of 50 patients, 28 were female. Mean age was 38.3 years. Forty patients (80% were known diabetics and 10 (20% were detected diabetic first time during this admission. Severe DKA cases were less common. Infection (20, 40% was the commonest precipitating cause followed by noncompliance (14, 28%. In 7 (14% cases no cause could be identified. Other less common causes included acute myocardial infarction, acute pancreatitis, stroke and surgery. Conclusion: Infection and noncompliance were the major precipitants of DKA. So, it is assumed that many DKA cases might be prevented by proper counselling regarding adherence to medication and sick days’ management.

  11. A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns. (United States)

    Richardson, Douglas; Fowler, Hayley J; Kilsby, Christopher G; Neal, Robert


    Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI-based drought months. The new weather-pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification-based analyses in the UK.

  12. High-resolution projections of mean and extreme precipitations over China through PRECIS under RCPs (United States)

    Zhu, Jinxin; Huang, Gordon; Wang, Xiuquan; Cheng, Guanhui; Wu, Yinghui


    The impact of global warming on the characteristics of mean and extreme precipitations over China is investigated by using the Providing REgional Climate Impacts for Studies (PRECIS) model. The PRECIS model was driven by the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 with Earth System components and coupling (HadGEM2-ES). The results of both models are analyzed in terms of mean precipitation and indices of precipitation extremes (R95p, R99p, SDII, WDF, and CWD) over China at the resolution of 25 km under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios for the baseline period (1976-2005) and two future periods (2036-2065 and 2070-2099). With improved resolution, the PRECIS model is able to better represent the fine-scale physical process than HadGEM2-ES. It can provide reliable spatial patterns of precipitation and its related extremes with high correlations to observations. Moreover, there is a notable improvement in temporal patterns simulation through the PRECIS model. The PRECIS model better reproduces the regional annual cycle and frequencies of daily precipitation intensity than its driving GCM. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, both the HadGEM2-ES and the precis project increasing annual precipitation over the entire country for two future periods. Precipitation increase in winter is greater than the increase in summer. The results suggest that increased radiative forcing from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5 would further intensify the magnitude of projected precipitation changes by both PRECIS and HadGEM2-ES. For example, some parts of south China with decreased precipitation under RCP4.5 would expect even less precipitation under RCP8.5; regions (northwest, northcentral and northeast China) with increased precipitation under RCP4.5 would expect more precipitation under RCP8.5. Apart from the projected increase in annual total precipitation, the results also suggest that there will be an increase in the days with precipitation higher than

  13. Changes in precipitation extremes projected by a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akio Kitoh


    Full Text Available High-resolution modeling is necessary to project weather and climate extremes and their future changes under global warming. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is able to reproduce climate fields as well as regional-scale phenomena such as monsoonal rainfall, tropical and extratropical cyclones, and heavy precipitation. This 20-km mesh model is applied to project future changes in weather and climate extremes at the end of the 21st century with four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST changes: one with the mean SST changes by the 28 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-8.5 scenario, and the other three obtained from a cluster analysis, in which tropical SST anomalies derived from the 28 CMIP5 models were grouped. Here we focus on future changes in regional precipitation and its extremes. Various precipitation indices averaged over the Twenty-two regional land domains are calculated. Heavy precipitation indices (maximum 5-day precipitation total and maximum 1-day precipitation total increase in all regional domains, even where mean precipitation decrease (Southern Africa, South Europe/Mediterranean, Central America. South Asia is the domain of the largest extreme precipitation increase. In some domains, different SST patterns result in large precipitation changes, possibly related to changes in large-scale circulations in the tropical Pacific.

  14. Identifying Patterns in Extreme Precipitation Risk and the Related Impacts (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.


    Extreme precipitation can harm human life and assets through flooding, hail, landslides, or debris flows. Flood risk assessments typically concentrate on river or mountain torrent channels, using water depth, flow velocity, and/or sediment deposition to quantify the risk. In addition, extreme events with high recurrence intervals are often the main focus. However, damages from short-term and localized convective showers often occur away from watercourses. Also, damages from more frequent small scale extremes, although usually less disastrous, can accumulate to considerable financial burdens. Extreme convective precipitation is expected to intensify in a warmer climate, and vulnerability patterns might change in tandem with changes in the character of precipitation and flood types. This has consequences for adaptation planners who want to establish effective protection measures and reduce the cost from natural hazards. Here we merge hydrological and exposure data to identify patterns of risk under varying synoptic conditions. Exposure is calculated from a database of 76k damage claims reported to the national disaster fund in 480 municipalities in south eastern Austria from 1990-2015. Hydrological data comprise sub-daily precipitation (59 gauges) and streamflow (62 gauges) observations. We use synoptic circulation types to identify typical precipitation patterns. They indicate the character of precipitation even if a gauge is not in close proximity, facilitating potential future research with regional climate model data. Results show that more claims are reported under synoptic conditions favouring convective precipitation (on average 1.5-3 times more than on other days). For agrarian municipalities, convective precipitation damages are among the costliest after long low-intensity precipitation events. In contrast, Alpine communities are particularly vulnerable to convective high-intensity rainfall. In addition to possible observational error, uncertainty is present

  15. Altered Precipitation and Flow Patterns in the Dunajec River Basin

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    Mariola Kędra


    Full Text Available This study analyzes changes in long-term patterns of precipitation and river flow, as well as changes in their variability over the most recent 60 years (1956–2015. The study area is situated in the mountain basin of the Dunajec River, encompassing streams draining the Tatra Mountains in southern Poland. The focus of the study was to evaluate how regional warming translates into precipitation changes in the studied mountain region, and how changes in climate affect sub-regional hydrology. Monthly time series of precipitation measured at several sites were compared for two 30-year periods (1986–2015 versus 1956–1985. The significance of the difference between the periods in question was evaluated by means of the Wilcoxon signed rank test with the Bonferroni correction. The identified shifts in precipitation for 6 months are statistically significant and largely consistent with the revealed changes in river flow patterns. Moreover, significant differences in precipitation variability were noted in the study area, resulting in a significant decrease in the repeatability of precipitation over the most recent 30 years (1986–2015. Changes in the variability of the river flow studied were less visible in this particular mountain region (while significant for two months; however, the overall repeatability of river flow decreased significantly at the same rate as for precipitation.

  16. Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events over Portland, OR (United States)

    Aragon, C.; Loikith, P. C.; Lintner, B. R.; Pike, M.


    Extreme precipitation events can have profound impacts on human life and infrastructure, with broad implications across a range of stakeholders. Changes to extreme precipitation events are a projected outcome of climate change that warrants further study, especially at regional- to local-scales. While global climate models are generally capable of simulating mean climate at global-to-regional scales with reasonable skill, resiliency and adaptation decisions are made at local-scales where most state-of-the-art climate models are limited by coarse resolution. Characterization of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events at local-scales can provide climatic information without this scale limitation, thus facilitating stakeholder decision-making. This research will use synoptic climatology as a tool by which to characterize the key large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in the Portland, Oregon metro region. Composite analysis of meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation days, and associated watershed-specific flooding, is employed to enhance understanding of the climatic drivers behind such events. The self-organizing maps approach is then used to characterize the within-composite variability of the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events, allowing us to better understand the different types of meteorological conditions that lead to high-impact precipitation events and associated hydrologic impacts. A more comprehensive understanding of the meteorological drivers of extremes will aid in evaluation of the ability of climate models to capture key patterns associated with extreme precipitation over Portland and to better interpret projections of future climate at impact-relevant scales.

  17. Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) - Daily, Version 1.2 (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) comprises a total of 27 products. The Version 1.2 Daily product covers the period October 1998 to the present,...

  18. Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) - Pentad, Version 2.2 (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) comprises a total of 27 products. The Version 2.2 Pentad product covers the period January 1979 to the present,...

  19. Assessment of CLIGEN precipitation and storm pattern generation under four precipitation depth categories in China (United States)

    CLIGEN (CLImate GENerator) is a widely used stochastic weather generator to simulate continuous daily precipitation and storm pattern information for hydrological and soil erosion models. Although CLIGEN has been tested in several regions in the world, thoroughly assessment before applying it to Chi...

  20. Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections Analyzed with Climate Signal Maps: Seasonal and Extreme Precipitation for Germany

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    Susanne Pfeifer


    Full Text Available Climate signal maps can be used to identify regions where robust climate changes can be derived from an ensemble of climate change simulations. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Climate signal maps do not show all information available from the model ensemble, but give a condensed view in order to be useful for non-climate scientists who have to assess climate change impact during the course of their work. Three different ensembles of regional climate projections have been analyzed regarding changes of seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (defined as the number of days exceeding the 95th percentile threshold of daily precipitation for Germany, using climate signal maps. Although the models used and the scenario assumptions differ for the three ensembles (representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5 vs. RCP8.5 vs. A1B, some similarities in the projections of future seasonal and extreme precipitation can be seen. For the winter season, both mean and extreme precipitation are projected to increase. The strength, robustness and regional pattern of this increase, however, depends on the ensemble. For summer, a robust decrease of mean precipitation can be detected only for small regions in southwestern Germany and only from two of the three ensembles, whereas none of them projects a robust increase of summer extreme precipitation.

  1. Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions. (United States)

    Polade, Suraj D; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R; Dettinger, Michael D; Pierce, David W


    In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California's more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events.

  2. Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of Precipitation over Central Asia by CMIP5 Models (United States)

    Yu, X.; Zhao, Y.


    Future changes in the annual cycle of the precipitation in central Asia (CA) were estimated based on the historical and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiments from 25 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observations, the historical (1979-1999) experiments showed that most models can capture the migration of rainfall centers, but remarkable discrepancies exist in the location and intensity of rainfall centers between simulations and observations. Considering the skill scores of precipitation and pattern correlations of circulations, which are closely related to the precipitation for each month, for the 25 models, the four best models (e.g., CanESM2, CMCC-CMS, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR) with relatively good performance were selected. The four models' ensemble mean indicated that the migration and location of the precipitation centers were better reproduced, except the intensity of the centers was overestimated, compared with the result that only considered precipitation. Based on the four best models' ensemble mean under RCP8.5 scenarios, precipitation was projected to increase dramatically over most of the CA region in the boreal cold seasons (November, December, January, February, March, April and May) with the maximum in December in the end of twenty-first century (2079-2099), and several positive centers were located in the Pamirs Plateau and the Tianshan Mountains. By contrast, the precipitation changes were weak in the boreal warm seasons (June, July, August, September and October), with a wet center located in the northern Himalayas. Furthermore, there remain some uncertainties in the projected precipitation regions and periods obtained by comparing models' ensemble results of this paper and the results of previous studies. These uncertainties should be investigated in future work.

  3. Interaction of valleys and circulation patterns (CPs on spatial precipitation patterns in southern Germany

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    M. Liu


    Full Text Available Topography exerts influence on the spatial precipitation distribution over different scales, known typically at the large scale as the orographic effect, and at the small scale as the wind-drift rainfall (WDR effect. At the intermediate scale (1~10 km, which is characterized by secondary mountain valleys, topography also demonstrates some effect on the precipitation pattern. This paper investigates such intermediate-scale topographic effects on precipitation patterns, focusing on narrow-steep valleys in the complex terrain of southern Germany, based on the daily observations over a 48 yr period (1960~2007 from a high-density rain-gauge network covering two sub-areas, Baden-Wuerttemberg (BW and Bavaria (BY. Precipitation data at the valley and non-valley stations are compared under consideration of the daily general circulation patterns (CPs classified by a fuzzy rule-based algorithm. Scatter plots of precipitation against elevation demonstrate a different behavior of valley stations comparing to non-valley stations. A detailed study of the precipitation time series for selected station triplets, each consisting of a valley station, a mountain station and an open station have been investigated by statistical analysis with the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS test supplemented by the One-way analysis of variance (One-way ANOVA and a graphical comparison of the mean precipitation amounts. The results show an interaction of valley orientation and the direction of the CPs at the intermediate scale, i.e. when the valley is shielded from the CP which carries the precipitation, the precipitation amount within the valley is comparable to that on the mountain crest, and both larger than the precipitation at the open station. When the valley is open to the CP, the precipitation within the valley is similar to the open station but much less than that on the mountain. Such phenomenon where the precipitation is "blind" to the valleys at the intermediate scale

  4. The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present) (United States)

    Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Xie, Ping-Ping; Janowiak, John; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David


    The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version 2 Monthly Precipitation Analysis is described. This globally complete, monthly analysis of surface precipitation at 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees latitude-longitude resolution is available from January 1979 to the present. It is a merged analysis that incorporates precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit-satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The merging approach utilizes the higher accuracy of the low-orbit microwave observations to calibrate, or adjust, the more frequent geosynchronous infrared observations. The data set is extended back into the premicrowave era (before 1987) by using infrared-only observations calibrated to the microwave-based analysis of the later years. The combined satellite-based product is adjusted by the raingauge analysis. This monthly analysis is the foundation for the GPCP suite of products including those at finer temporal resolution, satellite estimate, and error estimates for each field. The 23-year GPCP climatology is characterized, along with time and space variations of precipitation.

  5. From the clouds to the ground - snow precipitation patterns vs. snow accumulation patterns (United States)

    Gerber, Franziska; Besic, Nikola; Mott, Rebecca; Gabella, Marco; Germann, Urs; Bühler, Yves; Marty, Mauro; Berne, Alexis; Lehning, Michael


    Knowledge about snow distribution and snow accumulation patterns is important and valuable for different applications such as the prediction of seasonal water resources or avalanche forecasting. Furthermore, accumulated snow on the ground is an important ground truth for validating meteorological and climatological model predictions of precipitation in high mountains and polar regions. Snow accumulation patterns are determined by many different processes from ice crystal nucleation in clouds to snow redistribution by wind and avalanches. In between, snow precipitation undergoes different dynamical and microphysical processes, such as ice crystal growth, aggregation and riming, which determine the growth of individual particles and thereby influence the intensity and structure of the snowfall event. In alpine terrain the interaction of different processes and the topography (e.g. lifting condensation and low level cloud formation, which may result in a seeder-feeder effect) may lead to orographic enhancement of precipitation. Furthermore, the redistribution of snow particles in the air by wind results in preferential deposition of precipitation. Even though orographic enhancement is addressed in numerous studies, the relative importance of micro-physical and dynamically induced mechanisms on local snowfall amounts and especially snow accumulation patterns is hardly known. To better understand the relative importance of different processes on snow precipitation and accumulation we analyze snowfall and snow accumulation between January and March 2016 in Davos (Switzerland). We compare MeteoSwiss operational weather radar measurements on Weissfluhgipfel to a spatially continuous snow accumulation map derived from airborne digital sensing (ADS) snow height for the area of Dischma valley in the vicinity of the weather radar. Additionally, we include snow height measurements from automatic snow stations close to the weather radar. Large-scale radar snow accumulation

  6. Evaluating IPCC AR4 cool-season precipitation simulations and projections for impacts assessment over North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McAfee, Stephanie A. [The University of Arizona, Department of Geosciences, Tucson, AZ (United States); The Wilderness Society, Anchorage, AK (United States); Russell, Joellen L.; Goodman, Paul J. [The University of Arizona, Department of Geosciences, Tucson, AZ (United States)


    General circulation models (GCMs) have demonstrated success in simulating global climate, and they are critical tools for producing regional climate projections consistent with global changes in radiative forcing. GCM output is currently being used in a variety of ways for regional impacts projection. However, more work is required to assess model bias and evaluate whether assumptions about the independence of model projections and error are valid. This is particularly important where models do not display offsetting errors. Comparing simulated 300-hPa zonal winds and precipitation for the late 20th century with reanalysis and gridded precipitation data shows statistically significant and physically plausible associations between positive precipitation biases across all models and a marked increase in zonal wind speed around 30 N, as well as distortions in rain shadow patterns. Over the western United States, GCMs project drier conditions to the south and increasing precipitation to the north. There is a high degree of agreement between models, and many studies have made strong statements about implications for water resources and about ecosystem change on that basis. However, since one of the mechanisms driving changes in winter precipitation patterns appears to be associated with a source of error in simulating mean precipitation in the present, it suggests that greater caution should be used in interpreting impacts related to precipitation projections in this region and that standard assumptions underlying bias correction methods should be scrutinized. (orig.)

  7. Characteristics of Spatial Structural Patterns and Temporal Variability of Annual Precipitation in Ningxia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    [Objective] The aim was to study the characteristics of the spatial structural patterns and temporal variability of annual precipitation in Ningxia.[Method] Using rotated empirical orthogonal function,the precipitation concentration index,wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall rank statistic method,the characteristics of precipitation on the spatial-temporal variability and trend were analyzed by the monthly precipitation series in Ningxia during 1951-2008.[Result] In Ningxia,the spatial structural patterns of a...

  8. The Signature of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Antarctic Precipitation. (United States)

    Marshall, Gareth J; Thompson, David W J; van den Broeke, Michiel R


    We provide the first comprehensive analysis of the relationships between large-scale patterns of Southern Hemisphere climate variability and the detailed structure of Antarctic precipitation. We examine linkages between the high spatial resolution precipitation from a regional atmospheric model and four patterns of large-scale Southern Hemisphere climate variability: the southern baroclinic annular mode, the southern annular mode, and the two Pacific-South American teleconnection patterns. Variations in all four patterns influence the spatial configuration of precipitation over Antarctica, consistent with their signatures in high-latitude meridional moisture fluxes. They impact not only the mean but also the incidence of extreme precipitation events. Current coupled-climate models are able to reproduce all four patterns of atmospheric variability but struggle to correctly replicate their regional impacts on Antarctic climate. Thus, linking these patterns directly to Antarctic precipitation variability may allow a better estimate of future changes in precipitation than using model output alone.

  9. Identification of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation in the US northeast (United States)

    Agel, Laurie; Barlow, Mathew; Feldstein, Steven B.; Gutowski, William J.


    Patterns of daily large-scale circulation associated with Northeast US extreme precipitation are identified using both k-means clustering (KMC) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) applied to tropopause height. The tropopause height provides a compact representation of the upper-tropospheric potential vorticity, which is closely related to the overall evolution and intensity of weather systems. Extreme precipitation is defined as the top 1% of daily wet-day observations at 35 Northeast stations, 1979-2008. KMC is applied on extreme precipitation days only, while the SOM algorithm is applied to all days in order to place the extreme results into the overall context of patterns for all days. Six tropopause patterns are identified through KMC for extreme day precipitation: a summertime tropopause ridge, a summertime shallow trough/ridge, a summertime shallow eastern US trough, a deeper wintertime eastern US trough, and two versions of a deep cold-weather trough located across the east-central US. Thirty SOM patterns for all days are identified. Results for all days show that 6 SOM patterns account for almost half of the extreme days, although extreme precipitation occurs in all SOM patterns. The same SOM patterns associated with extreme precipitation also routinely produce non-extreme precipitation; however, on extreme precipitation days the troughs, on average, are deeper and the downstream ridges more pronounced. Analysis of other fields associated with the large-scale patterns show various degrees of anomalously strong moisture transport preceding, and upward motion during, extreme precipitation events.

  10. Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation inferred from streamflow observations across the Sierra Nevada mountain range (United States)

    Henn, Brian; Clark, Martyn P.; Kavetski, Dmitri; Newman, Andrew J.; Hughes, Mimi; McGurk, Bruce; Lundquist, Jessica D.


    Given uncertainty in precipitation gauge-based gridded datasets over complex terrain, we use multiple streamflow observations as an additional source of information about precipitation, in order to identify spatial and temporal differences between a gridded precipitation dataset and precipitation inferred from streamflow. We test whether gridded datasets capture across-crest and regional spatial patterns of variability, as well as year-to-year variability and trends in precipitation, in comparison to precipitation inferred from streamflow. We use a Bayesian model calibration routine with multiple lumped hydrologic model structures to infer the most likely basin-mean, water-year total precipitation for 56 basins with long-term (>30 year) streamflow records in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California. We compare basin-mean precipitation derived from this approach with basin-mean precipitation from a precipitation gauge-based, 1/16° gridded dataset that has been used to simulate and evaluate trends in Western United States streamflow and snowpack over the 20th century. We find that the long-term average spatial patterns differ: in particular, there is less precipitation in the gridded dataset in higher-elevation basins whose aspect faces prevailing cool-season winds, as compared to precipitation inferred from streamflow. In a few years and basins, there is less gridded precipitation than there is observed streamflow. Lower-elevation, southern, and east-of-crest basins show better agreement between gridded and inferred precipitation. Implied actual evapotranspiration (calculated as precipitation minus streamflow) then also varies between the streamflow-based estimates and the gridded dataset. Absolute uncertainty in precipitation inferred from streamflow is substantial, but the signal of basin-to-basin and year-to-year differences are likely more robust. The findings suggest that considering streamflow when spatially distributing precipitation in complex terrain

  11. Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Climate Data Record (CDR), Version 2.3 (Monthly) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) consists of monthly satellite-gauge and associated precipitation error estimates and covers the period January...

  12. The Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with Short-Term Extratropical Climate Fluctuations (United States)

    Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.


    Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2x79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg. x 2.5 deg. lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg. x l deg. grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some

  13. Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extreme Hourly Precipitation Patterns in Hainan Island, South China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjie Chen


    Full Text Available To analyze extreme precipitation patterns in Hainan Island, hourly precipitation datasets from 18 stations, for the period from 1967 to 2012, were investigated. Two precipitation concentration indices (PCI and 11 extreme precipitation indices (EPI were chosen. PCI1 indicated a moderate seasonality in yearly precipitation and PCI2 showed that at least 80% of the total precipitation fell in 20% of the rainiest hours. Furthermore, the spatial variations of PCI1 and PCI2 differed. Linear regression indicated increasing trends in 11 of the calculated EPI. Principal component analysis found that the first recalculated principal component represented the 11 EPI. The recalculated principal component revealed an increasing trend in precipitation extremes for the whole island (except the interior section. Trend stability analysis of several of EPI suggested that the southern parts of Hainan Island, and especially the city of Sanya, should receive more attention to establish the drainage facilities necessary to prevent waterlogging.

  14. Mapping Precipitation Patterns from the Stable Isotopic Composition of Surface Waters: Olympic Peninsula, Washington State (United States)

    Anders, A. M.; Brandon, M. T.


    Available data indicate that large and persistent precipitation gradients are tied to topography at scales down to a few kilometers, but precipitation patterns in the majority of mountain ranges are poorly constrained at scales less than tens of kilometers. A lack of knowledge of precipitation patterns hampers efforts to understand the processes of orographic precipitation and identify the relationships between geomorphic evolution and climate. A new method for mapping precipitation using the stable isotopic composition of surface waters is tested in the Olympic Mountains of Washington State. Measured δD and δ18O of 97 samples of surface water are linearly related and nearly inseparable from the global meteoric water line. A linear orographic precipitation model extended to include in effects of isotopic fractionation via Rayleigh distillation predicts precipitation patterns and isotopic composition of surface water. Seven parameters relating to the climate and isotopic composition of source water are used. A constrained random search identifies the best-fitting parameter set. Confidence intervals for parameter values are defined and precipitation patterns are determined. Average errors for the best-fitting model are 4.8 permil in δD. The difference between the best fitting model and other models within the 95% confidence interval was less than 20%. An independent high-resolution precipitation climatology documents precipitation gradients similar in shape and magnitude to the model derived from surface water isotopic composition. This technique could be extended to other mountain ranges, providing an economical and fast assessment of precipitation patterns requiring minimal field work.

  15. Patterns of Precipitation and Streamflow Responses to Moisture Fluxes during Atmospheric Rivers (United States)

    Henn, B. M.; Wilson, A. M.; Asgari Lamjiri, M.; Ralph, M.


    Precipitation from landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) have been shown to dominate the hydroclimate of many parts of the world. ARs are associated with saturated, neutrally-stable profiles in the lower atmosphere, in which forced ascent by topography induces precipitation. Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation over complex terrain during AR-driven precipitation is critical for accurate forcing of distributed hydrologic models and streamflow forecasts. Past studies using radar wind profilers and radiosondes have demonstrated predictability of precipitation rates based on upslope water vapor flux over coastal terrain, with certain levels of moisture flux exhibiting the greatest influence on precipitation. Additionally, these relationships have been extended to show that streamflow in turn responds predictably to upslope vapor flux. However, past studies have focused on individual pairs of profilers and precipitation gauges; the question of how orographic precipitation in ARs is distributed spatially over complex terrain, at different topographic scales, is less well known. Here, we examine profiles of atmospheric moisture transport from radiosondes and wind profilers, against a relatively dense network of precipitation gauges, as well as stream gauges, to assess relationships between upslope moisture flux and the spatial response of precipitation and streamflow. We focus on California's Russian River watershed in the 2016-2017 cool season, when regular radiosonde launches were made at two locations during an active sequence of landfalling ARs. We examine how atmospheric water vapor flux results in precipitation patterns across gauges with different topographic relationships to the prevailing moisture-bearing winds, and conduct a similar comparison of runoff volume response from several unimpaired watersheds in the upper Russian watershed, taking into account antecedent soil moisture conditions that influence runoff generation. Finally

  16. Precipitation patterns control the distribution and export of large wood at the catchment scale


    Il Seo, Jung; Nakamura, Futoshi; Chun, Kun Woo; Kim, Suk Woo; Grant, Gordon E.


    Large wood (LW) plays an important role in river ecosystems, but LW-laden floods may cause serious damage to human lives and property. The relationship between precipitation patterns and variations in LW distribution and export at the watershed scale is poorly understood. To explore these linkages, we examined differences in LW distribution as a function of channel morphologies in six watersheds located in southern and northern Japan and analysed the impacts of different precipitation pattern...

  17. Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models (United States)

    Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.


    Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

  18. Comparison of TRMM and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Precipitation Analyses (United States)

    Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Curtis, Scott


    This paper describes recent results of using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (launched in November 1997) information as the key calibration tool in a merged analysis on a 1 x 1' latitude/longitude monthly scale based on multiple satellite sources and raingauge analyses. The TRMM-based product is compared with the community-based Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) results. The long-term GPCP analysis is compared to the new TRMM-based analysis which uses the most accurate TRMM information to calibrate the estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and geosynchronous IR observations and merges those estimates together with the TRMM and gauge information to produce accurate rainfall estimates with the increased sampling provided by the combined satellite information. The comparison with TRMM results on a month-to-month basis should clarify the strengths and weaknesses of the long-term GPCP product in the tropics and point to how to improve the monitoring analysis. Preliminary results from the TRMM merged satellite analysis indicates fairly close agreement with the GPCP estimates. The GPCP analysis is done at 2.5 degree latitude/longitude resolution and interpolated to a 1 degree grid for comparison with the TRMM analysis. As expected the same features are evident in both panels, but there are subtle differences in the magnitudes. Focusing on the Pacific Ocean Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) one can see the TRMM-based estimates having higher peak values and lower values in the ITCZ periphery. These attributes also show up in the statistics, where GPCP>TRMM at low values (below 10 mm/d) and TRMM>GPCP at high values (greater than 15 mm/d). The area in the Indian Ocean which shows consistently higher values of TRMM over GPCP needs to be examined carefully to determine if the lack of geosynchronous data has led to a difference in the two analyses. By the time of the meeting over a year of TRMM products will be available for

  19. North-South precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales (United States)

    Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Diaz, Henry F.; Meko, D.M.


    The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25??to 55??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both timescales, two leading EOFs describe 1) a north-south seesaw of precipitation pivoting near 40??N and 2) variations in precipitation near 40??N, respectively. The amount of overall precipitation variability is only about 10% of the mean and is largely determined by precipitation variations around 40??-45??N and most consistently influenced by nearby circulation patterns; in this sense, domain-average precipitation is closely related to the second EOF. The central latitude and latitudinal spread of precipitation distributions are strongly influenced by precipitation

  20. Impact of Precipitation Patterns on Biomass and Species Richness of Annuals in a Dry Steppe (United States)

    Yan, Hong; Liang, Cunzhu; Li, Zhiyong; Liu, Zhongling; Miao, Bailing; He, Chunguang; Sheng, Lianxi


    Annuals are an important component part of plant communities in arid and semiarid grassland ecosystems. Although it is well known that precipitation has a significant impact on productivity and species richness of community or perennials, nevertheless, due to lack of measurements, especially long-term experiment data, there is little information on how quantity and patterns of precipitation affect similar attributes of annuals. This study addresses this knowledge gap by analyzing how quantity and temporal patterns of precipitation affect aboveground biomass, interannual variation aboveground biomass, relative aboveground biomass, and species richness of annuals using a 29-year dataset from a dry steppe site at the Inner Mongolia Grassland Ecosystem Research Station. Results showed that aboveground biomass and relative aboveground biomass of annuals increased with increasing precipitation. The coefficient of variation in aboveground biomass of annuals decreased significantly with increasing annual and growing-season precipitation. Species richness of annuals increased significantly with increasing annual precipitation and growing-season precipitation. Overall, this study highlights the importance of precipitation for aboveground biomass and species richness of annuals. PMID:25906187

  1. Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests (United States)

    Hussain, Mubasher; Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan; Mustafa, Muhammad Raza Ul; Mahmood, Rashid; Jia, Shaofeng


    We present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most suitable GCMs (i.e. ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, and GFDL-ESM2M) and their mean ensemble (B3MMM) was used to project the future precipitation over the RRB. Historical (1976-2005) and future (2011-2100) precipitation ensembles of B3MMM were used to perturb the stochastically generated future precipitation over 25 rainfall stations in the river basin. The B3MMM exhibited a significant increase in precipitation during 2080s, up to 12 and 8% increase in annual precipitation over upper and lower RRB, respectively, under RCP8.5, and up to 7% increase in annual precipitation under RCP4.5. On the seasonal scale, Mann-Kendal trend test estimated statistically significant positive trend in the future precipitation during all seasons; except September to November when we only noted significant positive trend for the lower RRB under RCP4.5. Overall, at the end of the twenty-first century, an increase in annual precipitation is noteworthy in the whole RRB, with 7 and 10% increase in annual precipitation under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, respectively.

  2. Pattern formation and self-organization in a simple precipitation system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Volford, Andras; Izsak, F.; Ripzam, Matyas; Lagzi, Istvan

    Various types of pattern formation and self-organization phenomena can be observed in biological, chemical, and geochemical systems due to the interaction of reaction with diffusion. The appearance of static precipitation patterns was reported first by Liesegang in 1896. Traveling waves and

  3. Does the precipitation redistribution of the canopy sense in the moisture pattern of the forest litter? (United States)

    Zagyvai-Kiss, Katalin Anita; Kalicz, Péter; Csáfordi, Péter; Kucsara, Mihály; Gribovszki, Zoltán


    Precipitation is trapped and temporarily stored by the surfaces of forest crown (canopy interception) and forest litter (litter interception). The stemflow and throughfall reach the litter, thus theoretically the litter moisture content depends on these parts of precipitation. Nowadays the moisture pattern of the forest floor, both spatial and temporal scale, have growing respect for the forestry. The transition to the continuous cover forestry induce much higher variability compared to the even aged, more-less homogeneous, monocultural stands. The gap cutting is one of the key methods in the Hungarian forestry. There is an active discussion among the forest professionals how to determine the optimal gap size to maintain the optimal conditions for the seedlings. Among the open questions is how to modify surrounding trees the moisture pattern of the forest floor in the gap? In the early steps of a multidisciplinary project we processed some available data, to estimate the spatial dependency between the water content of forest litter and the spatial pattern of the canopy represented by the tree trunk. The maximum water content depends on dry weight of litter, thus we also analysed that parameter. Data were measured in three different forest ecosystems: a middle age beech (Fagus sylvatica), a sessile oak (Quercus petraea) and a spruce (Picea abies) stand. The study site (Hidegvíz Valley Research Cathcment) is located in Sopron Hills at the eastern border of the Alps. Litter samples were collected under each stand (occasionally 10-10 pieces from 40?40 cm area) and locations of the samples and neighbouring trees were mapped. We determined dry weight and the water content of litter in laboratory. The relationship between water content and the distance of tree trunks in case of spruce and oak stands were not significant and in case of the beech stand was weakly significant. Climate change effects can influence significantly forest floor moisture content, therefore this

  4. Downscaling atmospheric patterns to multi-site precipitation amounts in southern Scandinavia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gelati, Emiliano; Christensen, O.B.; Rasmussen, P.F.


    A non-homogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) is applied for downscaling atmospheric synoptic patterns to winter multi-site daily precipitation amounts. The implemented NHMM assumes precipitation to be conditional on a hidden weather state that follows a Markov chain, whose transition probabilities...... depend on current atmospheric information. The gridded atmospheric fields are summarized through the singular value decomposition (SVD) technique. SVD is applied to geopotential height and relative humidity at several pressure levels, to identify their principal spatial patterns co...... products of bivariate distributions. Conditional on the weather state, precipitation amounts are modelled separately at each gauge as independent gamma-distributed random variables. This modelling approach is applied to 51 precipitation gauges in Denmark and southern Sweden for the period 1981...

  5. Projection of extreme precipitation in the context of climate change ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tion, maximum 1-day precipitation and simple daily intensity to do ... The study area spans far and wide. It reaches .... design flood, and it is also an important purpose to study the ..... bridge University Press, Cambridge. Jinshan Zhang, Xingju ...

  6. Projections of the Ganges-Brahmaputra precipitation: downscaled from GCM predictors (United States)

    Pervez, Md Shahriar; Henebry, Geoffrey M.


    Downscaling Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate is critical for impact studies. Downscaling enables use of GCM experiments for regional scale impact studies by generating regionally specific forecasts connecting global scale predictions and regional scale dynamics. We employed the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to downscale 21st century precipitation for two data-sparse hydrologically challenging river basins in South Asia—the Ganges and the Brahmaputra. We used CGCM3.1 by Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis version 3.1 predictors in downscaling the precipitation. Downscaling was performed on the basis of established relationships between historical Global Summary of Day observed precipitation records from 43 stations and National Center for Environmental Prediction re-analysis large scale atmospheric predictors. Although the selection of predictors was challenging during the set-up of SDSM, they were found to be indicative of important physical forcings in the basins. The precipitation of both basins was largely influenced by geopotential height: the Ganges precipitation was modulated by the U component of the wind and specific humidity at 500 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels; whereas, the Brahmaputra precipitation was modulated by the V component of the wind at 850 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels. The evaluation of the SDSM performance indicated that model accuracy for reproducing precipitation at the monthly scale was acceptable, but at the daily scale the model inadequately simulated some daily extreme precipitation events. Therefore, while the downscaled precipitation may not be the suitable input to analyze future extreme flooding or drought events, it could be adequate for analysis of future freshwater availability. Analysis of the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation projection with respect to observed precipitation reveals that the precipitation regime in each basin may be significantly impacted by climate change

  7. Organic influences on inorganic patterns of diffusion-controlled precipitation in gels (United States)

    Barge, Laura M.; Nealson, Kenneth H.; Petruska, John


    The well-known AgNO 3/K 2CrO 4 reaction-diffusion system produces periodic bands of silver chromate precipitate in gelatin, but only randomly oriented crystals in agarose gel. We show that comparable bands can be produced in agarose gel by adding small amounts of simple organic acids (e.g., acetic acid, N-acetyl glycine, and N-acetyl alanine) that suppress crystal growth and promote formation of rounded particles of precipitate. These results indicate that α-carboxyl groups of amino acids or short peptides in gelatin under mildly acidic conditions can induce periodic band patterns in diffusion-controlled silver chromate precipitates.

  8. Characterization of flood and precipitation events in Southwestern Germany and stochastic simulation of extreme precipitation (Project FLORIS-SV) (United States)

    Florian, Ehmele; Michael, Kunz


    Several major flood events occurred in Germany in the past 15-20 years especially in the eastern parts along the rivers Elbe and Danube. Examples include the major floods of 2002 and 2013 with an estimated loss of about 2 billion Euros each. The last major flood events in the State of Baden-Württemberg in southwest Germany occurred in the years 1978 and 1993/1994 along the rivers Rhine and Neckar with an estimated total loss of about 150 million Euros (converted) each. Flood hazard originates from a combination of different meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic processes. Currently there is no defined methodology available for evaluating and quantifying the flood hazard and related risk for larger areas or whole river catchments instead of single gauges. In order to estimate the probable maximum loss for higher return periods (e.g. 200 years, PML200), a stochastic model approach is designed since observational data are limited in time and space. In our approach, precipitation is linearly composed of three elements: background precipitation, orographically-induces precipitation, and a convectively-driven part. We use linear theory of orographic precipitation formation for the stochastic precipitation model (SPM), which is based on fundamental statistics of relevant atmospheric variables. For an adequate number of historic flood events, the corresponding atmospheric conditions and parameters are determined in order to calculate a probability density function (pdf) for each variable. This method involves all theoretically possible scenarios which may not have happened, yet. This work is part of the FLORIS-SV (FLOod RISk Sparkassen Versicherung) project and establishes the first step of a complete modelling chain of the flood risk. On the basis of the generated stochastic precipitation event set, hydrological and hydraulic simulations will be performed to estimate discharge and water level. The resulting stochastic flood event set will be used to quantify the

  9. Influence of altered precipitation pattern on greenhouse gas emissions and soil enzyme activities in Pannonian soils (United States)

    Forstner, Stefan Johannes; Michel, Kerstin; Berthold, Helene; Baumgarten, Andreas; Wanek, Wolfgang; Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Sophie; Kitzler, Barbara


    Precipitation patterns are likely to be altered due to climate change. Recent models predict a reduction of mean precipitation during summer accompanied by a change in short-term precipitation variability for central Europe. Correspondingly, the risk for summer drought is likely to increase. This may especially be valid for regions which already have the potential for rare, but strong precipitation events like eastern Austria. Given that these projections hold true, soils in this area will receive water irregularly in few, heavy rainfall events and be subjected to long-lasting dry periods in between. This pattern of drying/rewetting can alter soil greenhouse gas fluxes, creating a potential feedback mechanism for climate change. Microorganisms are the key players in most soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) transformation processes including greenhouse gas exchange. A conceptual model proposed by Schimel and colleagues (2007) links microbial stress-response physiology to ecosystem-scale biogeochemical processes: In order to cope with decreasing soil water potential, microbes modify resource allocation patterns from growth to survival. However, it remains unclear how microbial resource acquisition via extracellular enzymes and microbial-controlled greenhouse gas fluxes respond to water stress induced by soil drying/rewetting. We designed a laboratory experiment to test for effects of multiple drying/rewetting cycles on soil greenhouse gas fluxes (CO2, CH4, N2O, NO), microbial biomass and extracellular enzyme activity. Three soils representing the main soil types of eastern Austria were collected in June 2012 at the Lysimeter Research Station of the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES) in Vienna. Soils were sieved to 2mm, filled in steel cylinders and equilibrated for one week at 50% water holding capacity (WHC) for each soil. Then soils were separated into two groups: One group received water several times per week (C=control), the other group received

  10. Emerging European winter precipitation pattern linked to atmospheric circulation changes over the North Atlantic region in recent decades (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Parfitt, Rhys; Brands, Swen; Joyce, Terrence M.


    Dominant European winter precipitation patterns over the past century, along with their associated extratropical North Atlantic circulation changes, are evaluated using cluster analysis. Contrary to the four regimes traditionally identified based on daily wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns, five distinct seasonal precipitation regimes are detected here. Recurrent precipitation patterns in each regime are linked to changes in atmospheric blocking, storm track, and sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic region. Multidecadal variability in the frequency of the precipitation patterns reveals more (fewer) winters with wet conditions in northern (southern) Europe in recent decades and an emerging distinct pattern of enhanced wintertime precipitation over the northern British Isles. This pattern has become unusually common since the 1980s and is associated with changes in moisture transport and more frequent atmospheric river events. The observed precipitation changes post-1950 coincide with changes in storm track activity over the central/eastern North Atlantic toward the northern British Isles.

  11. Conditional Stochastic Models in Reduced Space: Towards Efficient Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Patterns (United States)

    Dodov, B.


    Stochastic simulation of realistic and statistically robust patterns of Tropical Cyclone (TC) induced precipitation is a challenging task. It is even more challenging in a catastrophe modeling context, where tens of thousands of typhoon seasons need to be simulated in order to provide a complete view of flood risk. Ultimately, one could run a coupled global climate model and regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, but this approach is not feasible in the catastrophe modeling context and, most importantly, may not provide TC track patterns consistent with observations. Rather, we propose to leverage NWP output for the observed TC precipitation patterns (in terms of downscaled reanalysis 1979-2015) collected on a Lagrangian frame along the historical TC tracks and reduced to the leading spatial principal components of the data. The reduced data from all TCs is then grouped according to timing, storm evolution stage (developing, mature, dissipating, ETC transitioning) and central pressure and used to build a dictionary of stationary (within a group) and non-stationary (for transitions between groups) covariance models. Provided that the stochastic storm tracks with all the parameters describing the TC evolution are already simulated, a sequence of conditional samples from the covariance models chosen according to the TC characteristics at a given moment in time are concatenated, producing a continuous non-stationary precipitation pattern in a Lagrangian framework. The simulated precipitation for each event is finally distributed along the stochastic TC track and blended with a non-TC background precipitation using a data assimilation technique. The proposed framework provides means of efficient simulation (10000 seasons simulated in a couple of days) and robust typhoon precipitation patterns consistent with observed regional climate and visually undistinguishable from high resolution NWP output. The framework is used to simulate a catalog of 10000 typhoon

  12. Floridian heatwaves and extreme precipitation: future climate projections (United States)

    Raghavendra, Ajay; Dai, Aiguo; Milrad, Shawn M.; Cloutier-Bisbee, Shealynn R.


    Observational analysis and climate modeling efforts concur that the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves will increase as the Earth's mean climate shifts towards warmer temperatures. While the impacts and mechanisms of heatwaves have been well explored, extreme temperatures over Florida are generally understudied. This paper sheds light on Floridian heatwaves by exploring 13 years of daily data from surface observations and high-resolution WRF climate simulations for the same timeframe. The characteristics of the current and future heatwaves under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario for 2070-2099 were then investigated. Results show a tripling in the frequency, and greater than a sixfold increase in the mean duration of heatwaves over Florida when the current standard of heatwaves was used. The intensity of heatwaves also increased by 4-6 °C due to the combined effects of rising mean temperatures and a 1-2 °C increase attributed to the flattening of the temperature distribution. Since Florida's atmospheric boundary layer is rich in moisture and heatwaves could further increase the moisture content in the lower troposphere, the relationship between heatwaves and extreme precipitation was also explored in both the current and future climate. As expected, rainfall during a heatwave event was anomalously low, but it quickly recovered to normal within 3 days after the passage of a heatwave. Finally, the late 21st-century climate could witness a slight decrease in the mean precipitation over Florida, accompanied by heavier heatwave-associated extreme precipitation events over central and southern Florida.

  13. The influence of the circulation on surface temperature and precipitation patterns over Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. D. Jones


    Full Text Available The atmospheric circulation clearly has an important influence on variations in surface temperature and precipitation. In this study we illustrate the spatial patterns of variation that occur for the principal circulation patterns across Europe in the standard four seasons. We use an existing classification scheme of surface pressure patterns, with the aim of considering whether the patterns of influence of specific weather types have changed over the course of the 20th century. We consider whether the long-term warming across Europe is associated with more favourable weather types or related to warming within some of the weather types. The results indicate that the latter is occurring, but not all circulation types show warming. The study also illustrates that certain circulation types can lead to marked differences in temperature and/or precipitation for relatively closely positioned sites when the sites are located in areas of high relief or near coasts.

  14. Projected Response of Low-Level Convergence and Associated Precipitation to Greenhouse Warming (United States)

    Weller, Evan; Jakob, Christian; Reeder, Michael J.


    The parameterization of convection in climate models is a large source of uncertainty in projecting future precipitation changes. Here an objective method to identify organized low-level convergence lines has been used to better understand how atmospheric convection is organized and projected to change, as low-level convergence plays an important role in the processes leading to precipitation. The frequency and strength of convergence lines over both ocean and land in current climate simulations is too low compared to reanalysis data. Projections show a further reduction in the frequency and strength of convergence lines over the midlatitudes. In the tropics, the largest changes in frequency are generally associated with shifts in major low-latitude convergence zones, consistent with changes in the precipitation. Further, examining convergence lines when in the presence or absence of precipitation results in large spatial contrasts, providing a better understanding of regional changes in terms of thermodynamic and dynamic effects.

  15. Effect of precipitation pattern on leaching of preservative from treated wood and implications for accelerated testing (United States)

    Stan Lebow


    There is a need to develop improved accelerated test methods for evaluating the leaching of wood preservatives from treated wood exposed to precipitation. In this study the effects of rate of rainfall and length of intervals between rainfall events on leaching was evaluated by exposing specimens to varying patterns of simulated rainfall under controlled laboratory...

  16. Extreme precipitation patterns and reductions of terrestrial ecosystem production across biomes (United States)

    Yongguang Zhang; M. Susan Moran; Mark A. Nearing; Guillermo E. Ponce Campos; Alfredo R. Huete; Anthony R. Buda; David D. Bosch; Stacey A. Gunter; Stanley G. Kitchen; W. Henry McNab; Jack A. Morgan; Mitchel P. McClaran; Diane S. Montoya; Debra P.C. Peters; Patrick J. Starks


    Precipitation regimes are predicted to shift to more extreme patterns that are characterized by more heavy rainfall events and longer dry intervals, yet their ecological impacts on vegetation production remain uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. This in situ study investigated the effects of these climatic conditions on aboveground net primary...

  17. Precipitation Pattern Controls on the Dynamics and Subsequent Export of Large Wood from River Catchments (United States)

    Seo, J.; Nakamura, F.; Chun, K.; Grant, G. E.


    In-stream large wood (LW) has a critical impact on the geomorphic and ecological character in river catchments, yet relatively little is known about variations in its dynamics and subsequent export in relation to different precipitation patterns and intensities. To understand these variations we used the annual volume of LW removed from 42 reservoirs in Japan and daily precipitation at or near the reservoir sites. Daily precipitation data were transformed into effective precipitation to evaluate trends in both current and antecedent precipitation, and these data were then used to explain basin variation in LW export. Model selection with generalized linear mixed models revealed that the precipitation pattern and intensity controlling LW export in small, intermediate, and large watersheds differed with latitude along the Japanese archipelago. LW export in small watersheds was well explained by effective precipitation greater than 120 mm, and showed little latitudinal variation. In contrast, LW export in intermediate and large watersheds was well explained by daily precipitation greater than 40 mm and 60 mm, respectively, and varied with latitude. In small watersheds with narrow channels and low stream discharges, mass movements (such as landslides and debris flows) are major factors in the production and transport of LW. Thus LW export in small watersheds appears to be regulated by the effective precipitation required to initiate mass movements, and shows little latitudinal change. In intermediate and large watersheds with wide channels and high stream discharges, heavy rainfall and subsequent floods regulate buoyant depth influencing the initiation of LW mobility, and thus control the amount of LW exported. In southern and central Japan, intense rainfall accompanying typhoons or localized torrential downpours lead to geomorphic disturbances, which produce massive amounts of LW delivery into channels. However, these pieces are constantly removed by high streamflows

  18. How consistent are precipitation patterns predicted by GCMs in the absence of cloud radiative effects? (United States)

    Popke, Dagmar; Bony, Sandrine; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn


    Model simulations with state-of-the-art general circulation models reveal a strong disagreement concerning the simulated regional precipitation patterns and their changes with warming. The deviating precipitation response even persists when reducing the model experiment complexity to aquaplanet simulation with forced sea surface temperatures (Stevens and Bony, 2013). To assess feedbacks between clouds and radiation on precipitation responses we analyze data from 5 models performing the aquaplanet simulations of the Clouds On Off Klima Intercomparison Experiment (COOKIE), where the interaction of clouds and radiation is inhibited. Although cloud radiative effects are then disabled, the precipitation patterns among models are as diverse as with cloud radiative effects switched on. Disentangling differing model responses in such simplified experiments thus appears to be key to better understanding the simulated regional precipitation in more standard configurations. By analyzing the local moisture and moist static energy budgets in the COOKIE experiments we investigate likely causes for the disagreement among models. References Stevens, B. & S. Bony: What Are Climate Models Missing?, Science, 2013, 340, 1053-1054

  19. Combined Effects of Synoptic-Scale Teleconnection Patterns on Summer Precipitation in Southern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Wang


    Full Text Available Using ERA-Interim daily reanalysis and precipitation data, the combined effects of East Asia-Pacific (EAP and Silk Road (SR teleconnection patterns on summer precipitation in Southern China were investigated on synoptic to sub-monthly timescales. Combined EAP and SR patterns lead to more persistent and extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV and exhibit an obvious zonal advance between the South Asia High (SAH and Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH prior to its onset. During typical combined events, an overlap between the SAH and WPSH remains in a favorable position for Persistent Extreme Precipitation (PEP. Furthermore, SR-induced acceleration of the westerly jet stream and extra positive vorticity advection provide persistent upper-level divergence for YRV precipitation. An anomalous EAP-related cyclone/anticyclone pair over East Asia induces enhanced low-level southwesterlies to the northern anticyclone flank and northerlies from the mid-latitudes, advecting anomalously abundant moisture toward the YRV, resulting in clear moisture convergence. Moreover, the strong ascent of warmer/moister air along a quasi-stationary front may be crucial for PEP. During decay, the SAH and WPSH diverge from each other and retreat to their normal positions, and the strong ascent of warmer/moister air rapidly weakens to dissipation, terminating PEP in the YRV.

  20. Precipitation extremes in the Iberian Peninsula: an overview of the CLIPE project (United States)

    Santos, João A.; Gonçalves, Paulo M.; Rodrigues, Tiago; Carvalho, Maria J.; Rocha, Alfredo


    The main aims of the project "Climate change of precipitation extreme episodes in the Iberian Peninsula and its forcing mechanisms - CLIPE" are 1) to diagnose the climate change signal in the precipitation extremes over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and 2) to identify the underlying physical mechanisms. For the first purpose, a multi-model ensemble of 25 Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations, from the ENSEMBLES project, is used. These experiments were generated by 15 RCMs, driven by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) under both historic conditions (1951-2000) and SRES A1B scenario (2001-2100). In this project, daily precipitation and mean sea level pressure, for the periods 1961-1990 (recent past) and 2021-2100 (future), are used. Using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) on a daily basis, a precipitation extreme is defined by the pair of threshold values (Dmin, Imin), where Dmin is the minimum number of consecutive days with daily SPI above the Imin value. For both past and future climates, a precipitation extreme of a specific type is then characterised by two variables: the number of episodes with a specific duration in days and the number of episodes with a specific mean intensity (SPI/duration). Climate change is also assessed by changes in their Probability Density Functions (PDFs), estimated at sectors representative of different precipitation regimes. Lastly, for the second objective of this project, links between precipitation and Circulation Weather Regimes (CWRs) are explored for both past and future climates. Acknowledgments: this work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project CLIPE (PTDC/AAC-CLI/111733/2009).

  1. Precipitation patterns and moisture fluxes in a sandy, tropical environment with a shallow water table (United States)

    Minihane, M. R.; Freyberg, D. L.


    Identifying the dominant mechanisms controlling recharge in shallow sandy soils in tropical climates has received relatively little attention. Given the expansion of coastal fill using marine sands and the growth of coastal populations throughout the tropics, there is a need to better understand the nature of water balances in these settings. We use time series of field observations at a coastal landfill in Singapore coupled with numerical modeling using the Richards' equation to examine the impact of precipitation patterns on soil moisture dynamics, including percolation past the root zone and recharge, in such an environment. A threshold in total precipitation event depth, much more so than peak precipitation intensity, is the strongest event control on recharge. However, shallow antecedent moisture, and therefore the timing between events along with the seasonal depth to water table, also play significant roles in determining recharge amounts. For example, at our field site, precipitation events of less than 3 mm per event yield little to no direct recharge, but for larger events, moisture content changes below the root zone are linearly correlated to the product of the average antecedent moisture content and the total event precipitation. Therefore, water resources planners need to consider identifying threshold precipitation volumes, along with the multiple time scales that capture variability in event antecedent conditions and storm frequency in assessing the role of recharge in coastal water balances in tropical settings.

  2. Precipitation isotopes link regional climate patterns to water supply in a tropical mountain forest, eastern Puerto Rico (United States)

    Scholl, Martha A.; Murphy, Sheila F.


    Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico have abundant rainfall and stream discharge and provide much of the water supply for the densely populated metropolitan areas nearby. Projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics as a result of global warming suggest that water availability will be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. It is essential to understand the relative importance of different weather systems to water supply to determine how changes in rainfall patterns, interacting with geology and vegetation, will affect the water balance. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, stable isotope signatures of precipitation from different weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Precipitation stable isotope values in the Luquillo Mountains had a large range, from fog/cloud water with δ2H, δ18O values as high as +12 ‰, -0.73 ‰ to tropical storm rain with values as low as -127 ‰, -16.8 ‰. Temporal isotope values exhibit a reverse seasonality from those observed in higher latitude continental watersheds, with higher isotopic values in the winter and lower values in the summer. Despite the higher volume of convective and low-pressure system rainfall, stable isotope analyses indicated that under the current rainfall regime, frequent trade -wind orographic showers contribute much of the groundwater recharge and stream base flow. Analysis of rain events using 20 years of 15 -minute resolution data at a mountain station (643 m) showed an increasing trend in rainfall amount, in agreement with increased precipitable water in the atmosphere, but differing from climate model projections of drying in the region. The mean intensity of rain events also showed an increasing trend. The determination of recharge sources from stable isotope tracers indicates that water supply

  3. Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses (United States)

    Zischg, Andreas Paul; Felder, Guido; Weingartner, Rolf; Quinn, Niall; Coxon, Gemma; Neal, Jeffrey; Freer, Jim; Bates, Paul


    The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below selected uncertainty factors in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum precipitation scenarios created by Monte Carlo simulations. For each rainfall pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard component, the other components of flood risk, exposure, and vulnerability contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF. Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation patterns and the spatial organization of the settlements within the river basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses.

  4. Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme precipitation in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Hundecha, Y.; Lawrence, D.


    Information on extreme precipitation for future climate is needed to assess the changes in the frequency and intensity of flooding. The primary source of information in climate change impact studies is climate model projections. However, due to the coarse resolution and biases of these models......), three are bias correction (BC) methods, and one is a perfect prognosis method. The eight methods are used to downscale precipitation output from 15 regional climate models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES project for 11 catchments in Europe. The overall results point to an increase in extreme precipitation...... that at least 30% and up to approximately half of the total variance is derived from the SDMs. This study illustrates the large variability in the expected changes in extreme precipitation and highlights the need for considering an ensemble of both SDMs and climate models. Recommendations are provided...

  5. "Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation (United States)

    Taylor, Patrick C.; Baker, Noel C.


    Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

  6. Altered precipitation patterns and simulated nitrogen deposition effects on phenology of common plant species in a Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow (United States)

    The interactive effects of five seasonal precipitation distribution patterns and two levels of N deposition (ambient and doubled) on phenological traits of six dominant plant species were studied in an alpine meadow of the Tibetan Plateau for two consecutive years. Seasonal precipitation patterns i...

  7. Projected changes in precipitation intensity and frequency over complex topography: a multi-model perspective (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Keller, Denise; Liniger, Mark; Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph; Appenzeller, Christof


    Fundamental changes in the hydrological cycle are expected in a future warmer climate. This is of particular relevance for the Alpine region, as a source and reservoir of several major rivers in Europe and being prone to extreme events such as floodings. For this region, climate change assessments based on the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) project a significant decrease in summer mean precipitation under the A1B emission scenario by the mid-to-end of this century, while winter mean precipitation is expected to slightly rise. From an impact perspective, projected changes in seasonal means, however, are often insufficient to adequately address the multifaceted challenges of climate change adaptation. In this study, we revisit the full matrix of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections regarding changes in frequency and intensity, precipitation-type (convective versus stratiform) and temporal structure (wet/dry spells and transition probabilities) over Switzerland and surroundings. As proxies for raintype changes, we rely on the model parameterized convective and large-scale precipitation components. Part of the analysis involves a Bayesian multi-model combination algorithm to infer changes from the multi-model ensemble. The analysis suggests a summer drying that evolves altitude-specific: over low-land regions it is associated with wet-day frequency decreases of convective and large-scale precipitation, while over elevated regions it is primarily associated with a decline in large-scale precipitation only. As a consequence, almost all the models project an increase in the convective fraction at elevated Alpine altitudes. The decrease in the number of wet days during summer is accompanied by decreases (increases) in multi-day wet (dry) spells. This shift in multi-day episodes also lowers the likelihood of short dry spell occurrence in all of the models. For spring and autumn the combined multi-model projections indicate higher mean precipitation intensity north of the

  8. Studies of some phenomena in control engineering projects - With application to precipitation processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stoele-Hansen, Kjell


    This thesis deals with the life-cycle of a control engineering project and some phenomena encountered in such projects. Different types of control strategies are discussed and an attempt is made to classify them into categories. Some case projects are presented and forms the basis for discussing the individual`s role in a change project. Further conditions for successful implementation of new control strategies are discussed in general, but also conditions for successful implementation of new control strategies at a process section of a nickel work. Procedures for implementing new control strategies are treated and some remarks are made about operation of control strategies. An introduction is given to the modelling of precipitation in pH systems and different model formulations are discused. The modelling of pH controlled precipitations is discussed in general. A variety of dynamic models, ranging from complex to simple, are proposed and discussed. A rigorous dynamic nonlinear mechanistic model of a precipitation reactor is developed. It is based on the theory of reaction invariants and variants. The model is verified against real process data. The dynamics and characteristics of the precipitation reactor are analysed and some remarks are made with respect to controllability. A new strategy for pH control is proposed. A new model based strategy for controlling the precipitation reactions is also proposed. 93 refs., 63 figs., 10 tabs.

  9. Projections of Future Precipitation Extremes Over Europe: A Multimodel Assessment of Climate Simulations (United States)

    Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph


    Projections of precipitation and its extremes over the European continent are analyzed in an extensive multimodel ensemble of 12 and 50 km resolution EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced by RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) aerosol and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. A systematic intercomparison with ENSEMBLES RCMs is carried out, such that in total information is provided for an unprecedentedly large data set of 100 RCM simulations. An evaluation finds very reasonable skill for the EURO-CORDEX models in simulating temporal and geographical variations of (mean and heavy) precipitation at both horizontal resolutions. Heavy and extreme precipitation events are projected to intensify across most of Europe throughout the whole year. All considered models agree on a distinct intensification of extremes by often more than +20% in winter and fall and over central and northern Europe. A reduction of rainy days and mean precipitation in summer is simulated by a large majority of models in the Mediterranean area, but intermodel spread between the simulations is large. In central Europe and France during summer, models project decreases in precipitation but more intense heavy and extreme rainfalls. Comparison to previous RCM projections from ENSEMBLES reveals consistency but slight differences in summer, where reductions in southern European precipitation are not as pronounced as previously projected. The projected changes of the European hydrological cycle may have substantial impact on environmental and anthropogenic systems. In particular, the simulations indicate a rising probability of summertime drought in southern Europe and more frequent and intense heavy rainfall across all of Europe.

  10. 21st Century Changes in Precipitation Extremes Based on Resolved Atmospheric Patterns (United States)

    Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.; O'Gorman, P. A.; Monier, E.


    Global warming is expected to alter the frequency and/or magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Such changes could have substantial ecological, economic, and sociological consequences. However, climate models in general do not correctly reproduce the frequency distribution of precipitation, especially at the regional scale. In this study, a validated analogue method is employed to diagnose the potential future shifts in the probability of extreme precipitation over the United States under global warming. The method is based on the use of the resolved large-scale meteorological conditions (i.e. flow features, moisture supply) to detect the occurrence of extreme precipitation. The CMIP5 multi-model projections have been compiled for two radiative forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). We further analyze the accompanying circulation features and their changes that may be responsible for shifts in extreme precipitation in response to changed climate. The application of such analogue method to detect other types of hazard events, i.e. landslides is also explored. The results from this study may guide hazardous weather watches and help society develop adaptive strategies for preventing catastrophic losses.

  11. Preliminary Studies on Summer Precipitation Patterns in China%我国夏季降水类型初探

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)



    [Objective]Study on the spatial distribution of summer precipitation patterns and interannnal and interdacadal variability.[Method]The summer precipitation patterns were obtained from standard field of summer precipitation data for 160 observation stations in China during 1951-2000 by the utilization of empirical orthogonal function(EOF),and characteristics of interannual and interdecadal variability were analyzed.[Result]The summer precipitation mainly distributes in eastern part of China;The Ist,2nd and 3rd EOF modes of spatial distribution are especially remarkable as well consistent with the results of previous reports about three rainfall patterns from analysis on the percentages of precipitation anomaly of summer.[Conclusion]There exists interannnal and interdecadal variability for summer precipitation in China.

  12. Projected precipitation changes in South America: a dynamical downscaling within CLARIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensson, Anna A. [Centra de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera, CONICET/UBA, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Menendez, Claudio G. [Centra de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera, CONICET/UBA, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Dept. de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Ruscica, Romina; Alexander, Peter [Dept. de Fisica, FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Samuelsson, Patrick; Willen, Ulrika [Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden)


    Responses of precipitation seasonal means and extremes over South America in a downscaling of a climate change scenario are assessed with the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA). The anthropogenic warming under A1B scenario influences more on the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme events like heavy precipitation and dry spells than on the mean seasonal precipitation. The risk of extreme precipitation increases in the La Plata Basin with a factor of 1.5-2.5 during all seasons and in the northwestern part of the continent with a factor 1.5-3 in summer, while it decreases in central and northeastern Brazil during winter and spring. The maximum amount of 5-days precipitation increases by up to 50% in La Plata Basin, indicating risks of flooding. Over central Brazil and the Bolivian lowland, where present 5-days precipitation is higher, the increases are similar in magnitude and could cause less impacts. In southern Amazonia, northeastern Brazil and the Amazon basin, the maximum number of consecutive dry days increases and mean winter and spring precipitation decreases, indicating a longer dry season. In the La Plata Basin, there is no clear pattern of change for the dry spell duration. (orig.)

  13. Multi-model Projection of July-August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO2 Doubling. Part Ⅰ:Precipitation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Hongmei; FENG Lei; ZHOU Tianjun


    Potential changes in precipitation extremes in July-August over China in response to CO2 doubling are analyzed based on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and the 1% per year CO2 increase experiment (to doubling) (lpctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). Evaluation of the models' performance in simulating the mean state shows that the majority of models fairly reproduce the broad spatial pattern of observed precipitation. However, all the models underestimate extreme precipitation by ~50%. The spread among the models over the Tibetan Plateau is ~2-3 times larger than that over the other areas.Models with higher resolution generally perform better than those with lower resolutions in terms of spatial pattern and precipitation amount. Under the lpctto2x scenario, the ratio between the absolute value of MME extreme precipitation change and model spread is larger than that of total precipitation, indicating a relatively robust change of extremes. The change of extreme precipitation is more homogeneous than the total precipitation. Analysis on the output of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) indicates that the spatially consistent increase of surface temperature and water vapor content contribute to the large increase of extreme precipitation over contiguous China,which follows the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Whereas, the meridionally tri-polar pattern of mean precipitation change over eastern China is dominated by the change of water vapor convergence, which is determined by the response of monsoon circulation to global warming.

  14. Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in East Asia Simulated by the MRI CGCM2

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Akio KITOH; Masahiro HOSAKA; Yukimasa ADACHI; Kenji KAMIGUCHI


    Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21st century and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-member ensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model (MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios. It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while both the frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a few percent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the rest of the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases, suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. South China is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitation intensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warming and an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone,which may be related with an El Ni(n)o-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease in summer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipit ation contrast more in the future.

  15. Predictable patterns of the Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP CFS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liang, Jianyin [CMA Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, Guangzhou, Guangdong (China); Yang, Song; Kumar, Arun [NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua [George Mason University, Department of Climate Dynamics, Fairfax, VA (United States); Zhang, Zuqiang [CMA National Climate Center, Beijing (China)


    The predictable patterns of the Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS) are depicted by applying a maximized signal-to-noise empirical orthogonal function analysis. The CFS captures the two most dominant modes of observed climate patterns. The first most dominant mode is characterized by the climate features of the onset years of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with strong precipitation signals over the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific oceans, Southeast Asia, and tropical Asian monsoon regions including the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea. The second most dominant mode is characterized by the climate features of the decay years of ENSO, with weakening signals over the western-central Pacific and strengthening signals over the Indian Ocean. The CFS is capable of predicting the most dominant modes several months in advance. It is also highly skillful in capturing the air-sea interaction processes associated with the precipitation features, as demonstrated in sea surface temperature and wind patterns. (orig.)

  16. An objective daily Weather Type classification for Iberia since 1850; patterns, trends, variability and impact in precipitation (United States)

    Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.; Lorenzo, M. N.; Vaquero, J. M.; Gallego, M. C.; Valente, M. A.; Gimeno, L.


    In recent years a large number of automated classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns have been published covering the entire European continent or specific sub-regions (Huth et al., 2008). This generalized use of objective classifications results from their relatively straightforward computation but crucially from their capacity to provide simple description of typical synoptic conditions as well as their climatic and environmental impact. For this purpose, the vast majority of authors has employed the Reanalyses datasets, namely from either NCEP/NCAR or ECMWF projects. However, both these widely used datasets suffer from important caveats, namely their restricted temporal coverage, that is limited to the last six decades (NCEP/NCAR since 1948 and ECMWF since 1958). This limitation has been partially mitigated by the recent availability of continuous daily mean sea level pressure obtained within the European project EMULATE, that extended the historic records over the extra-tropical Atlantic and Europe (70°-25° N by 70° W-50° E), for the period 1850 to the present (Ansell, T. J. et al. 2006). Here we have used the extended EMULATE dataset to construct an automated version of the Lamb Weather type (WTs) classification scheme (Jones et al 1993) adapted for the center of the Iberian Peninsula. We have identified 10 basic WTs (Cyclonic, Anticyclonic and 8 directional types) following a similar methodology to that previously adopted by Trigo and DaCamara, 2000 (for Portugal) and Lorenzo et al. 2008 (for Galicia, northwestern Iberia). We have evaluated trends of monthly/seasonal frequency of each WT for the entire period and several shorter periods. Finally, we use the long-term precipitation time series from Lisbon (recently digitized) and Cadiz (southern Spain) to evaluate, the impact of each WT on the precipitation regime. It is shown that the Anticyclonic (A) type, although being the most frequent class in winter, gives a rather small contribution to

  17. Impacts of the EA and SCA patterns on the 20th century NAO-winter precipitation relationship in Europe (United States)

    Comas-Bru, Laia; McDermott, Frank


    precipitation gradient is accentuated by the occurrence of a positive EA during positive NAO winters, drier conditions than normal are found in the southern UK. This is consistent, for example, with the severe winter drought of 1976, when computed NAO and EA indices were both positive (0.97 and 1.87, respectively), illustrating the modulating effect of NAO/EA combinations on winter precipitation patterns in the southern UK. References: Compo GP et al. 2011. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137 (654), 1-28. Mitchell TD, Jones PD. 2005. An improved method for constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 693-712.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Precipitation is the major atmospheric source of surface water, thus, in order to build appropriate adaptation strategies for various economic sections related to water resources it is essential to provide projections for precipitation tendencies as exact as possible. Extreme precipitation events are especially important from this point of view since they may result in different environmental, economical, and/or even human health damages. Excessive precipitation for instance may induce floods, flash-floods, landslides, traffic accidents. On the other hand, lack of precipitation is not favorable either: long dry periods affect agricultural production quite negatively, and hence, food safety can be threatened. Several precipitation-related indices (i.e., describing drought or intensity, exceeding different percentile-based or absolute threshold values are analyzed for the Carpathian region for 1961–2100. For this purpose 11 completed regional climate model simulations are used from the ENSEMBLES database. Before the thorough analysis, a percentile-based bias correction method was applied to the raw data, for which the homogenized daily gridded CarpatClim database (1961–2010 served as a reference. Absolute and relative seasonal mean changes of climate indices are calculated for two future time periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100 and for three subregions within the entire Carpathian region, namely, for Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. According to our results, longer dry periods are estimated for the summer season, mainly in the southern parts of the domain, while precipitation intensity is likely to increase. Heavy precipitation days and high percentile values are projected to increase, especially, in winter and autumn.

  19. Mean annual precipitation explains spatiotemporal patterns of Cenozoic mammal beta diversity and latitudinal diversity gradients in North America.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle Fraser

    Full Text Available Spatial diversity patterns are thought to be driven by climate-mediated processes. However, temporal patterns of community composition remain poorly studied. We provide two complementary analyses of North American mammal diversity, using (i a paleontological dataset (2077 localities with 2493 taxon occurrences spanning 21 discrete subdivisions of the Cenozoic based on North American Land Mammal Ages (36 Ma--present, and (ii climate space model predictions for 744 extant mammals under eight scenarios of future climate change. Spatial variation in fossil mammal community structure (β diversity is highest at intermediate values of continental mean annual precipitation (MAP estimated from paleosols (∼ 450 mm/year and declines under both wetter and drier conditions, reflecting diversity patterns of modern mammals. Latitudinal gradients in community change (latitudinal turnover gradients, aka LTGs increase in strength through the Cenozoic, but also show a cyclical pattern that is significantly explained by MAP. In general, LTGs are weakest when continental MAP is highest, similar to modern tropical ecosystems in which latitudinal diversity gradients are weak or undetectable. Projections under modeled climate change show no substantial change in β diversity or LTG strength for North American mammals. Our results suggest that similar climate-mediated mechanisms might drive spatial and temporal patterns of community composition in both fossil and extant mammals. We also provide empirical evidence that the ecological processes on which climate space models are based are insufficient for accurately forecasting long-term mammalian response to anthropogenic climate change and inclusion of historical parameters may be essential.

  20. Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns (United States)

    Toreti, A.; Xoplaki, E.; Maraun, D.; Kuglitsch, F. G.; Wanner, H.; Luterbacher, J.


    We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October-March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950-2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions

  1. Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Toreti


    Full Text Available We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series. Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous

  2. Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin, China: Changing properties and causes (United States)

    Xiao, M.


    Under the background of climate change, extensive attentions have been paid on the increased extreme precipitation from the public and government. To analyze the influences of large-scale climate indices on the precipitation extremes, the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin have been investigated using the Bayesian hierarchical method. The seasonal maximum one-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) was used to represent the seasonal precipitation extremes. Results indicated that spring Rx1day was affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a positive ENSO event in the same year tends to decrease the spring Rx1day in the northern part of Poyang Lake Basin while increase the spring Rx1day in southeastern Poyang Lake Basin, a positive NAO events in the same year tends to increase the spring Rx1day in the southwest and northwest part of Poyang Lake basin while decrease the spring Rx1day in the eastern part of Poyang Lake basin; summer Rx1day was affected by Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), positive IOD events in the same year tend to increase the summer Rx1day of northern Poyang Lake basin while decrease summer Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin; autumn Rx1day was affected by ENSO, positive ENSO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the autumn Rx1day in the west part of Poyang Lake basin; winter Rx1day was mainly affected by the NAO, positive NAO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin, while positive NAO events in the previous year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day in the central and northeast part of Poyang Lake basin. It is considered that the region with the negative vertical velocity is dominated by more precipitation and vice versa. Furthermore, field patterns of 500 hPa vertical velocity anomalies related to each climate index have further corroborated the influences of climate indices on the seasonal Rx1day, and

  3. pH and its frequency distribution patterns of Acid Precipitation in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitamura, Moritsugu; Katou, Takunori; Sekiguchi, Kyoichi


    The pH data was collected at the 29 stations in Phase-I study of Acid Precipitation Survey over Japan by Japan Environment Agency in terms of frequency distribution patterns. This study was undertaken from April 1984 to March 1988, which was the first survey of acid precipitation over Japan with identical sampling procedures and subsequent chemical analyses. While the annual mean pH at each station ranged from 4.4 to 5.5, the monthly mean varied more widely, from 4.0 to 7.1. Its frequency distribution pattern was obtained for each station, and further grouped into four classes: class I; a mode at the rank of pH 4.5∼4.9, class II; bimodes above and below this pH region, class III; a mode at a higher pH region, class IV; a mode at a lower pH region. The bimodal pattern was suggestive of precipitation with and without incorporation of significant amounts of basic aerosol of anthropogenic origin during descent of rain droplet. The patterns of the stations were also classified on a basis of summer-winter difference into another four classes. Winter pH values were appreciably lower than summer pHs in western parts of Japan and on Japan Sea coast, we attribute the winter pH to probable contribution of acidic pollutants transported by strong winter monsoon from Eurasian Continent. At most stations in northern and eastern Japan, the pH was higher in winter months reflecting more incorporation of basic materials, e.g., NH 4 + and Ca 2+ . (author)

  4. Impact of deforestation on local precipitation patterns over the Da River basin, Vietnam (United States)

    Anghileri, Daniela; Spartà, Daniele; Castelletti, Andrea; Boschetti, Mirco


    Change in land cover, e.g. from forest to bare soil, might severely impact the hydrological cycle at the river basin scale by altering the balance between rainfall and evaporation, ultimately affecting streamflow dynamics. These changes generally occur over decades, but they might be much more rapid in developing countries, where economic growth and growing population may cause abrupt changes in landscape and ecosystem. Detecting, analysing and modelling these changes is an essential step to design mitigation strategies and adaptation plans, balancing economic development and ecosystem protection. In this work we investigate the impact of land cover changes on the water cycle in the Da River basin, Vietnam. More precisely, the objective is to evaluate the interlink between deforestation and precipitation. The case study is particularly interesting because Vietnam is one of the world fastest growing economies and natural resources have been considerably exploited to support after-war development. Vietnam has the second highest rate of deforestation of primary forests in the world, second to only Nigeria (FAO 2005), with associated problems like abrupt change in run-off, erosion, sediment transport and flash floods. We performed land cover evaluation by combining literature information and Remote Sensing techniques, using Landsat images. We then analysed time series of precipitation observed on the period 1960-2011 in several stations located in the catchment area. We used multiple trend detection techniques, both state-of-the-art (e.g., Linear regression and Mann-Kendall) and novel trend detection techniques (Moving Average on Shifting Horizon), to investigate trends in seasonal pattern of precipitation. Results suggest that deforestation may induce a negative trend in the precipitation volume. The effect is mainly recognizable at the beginning and at the end of the monsoon season, when the local mechanisms of precipitation formation prevail over the large scale

  5. Effect of boreal spring precipitation anomaly pattern change in the late 1990s over tropical Pacific on the atmospheric teleconnection (United States)

    Guo, Yuanyuan; Wen, Zhiping; Chen, Ruidan; Li, Xiuzhen; Yang, Xiu-Qun


    Observational evidence showed that the leading mode of precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific during boreal spring experienced a pronounced interdecadal change around the late 1990s, characterized by a precipitation pattern shift from an eastern Pacific (EP) type to a central Pacific (CP) type. The distinct impacts of such a precipitation pattern shift on the extratropical atmospheric teleconnection were examined. An apparent poleward teleconnection extending from the tropics to the North Atlantic region was observed after 1998, while, there was no significant teleconnection before 1998. To understand why only the CP-type precipitation mode is associated with a striking atmospheric teleconnection after 1998, diagnostic analyses with the Eliassen-Palm flux and Rossby wave source (RWS) based on the barotropic vorticity equation were performed. The results show that for the EP-type precipitation mode, no significant RWS anomalies appeared over the subtropical Pacific due to the opposite effect of the vortex stretching and absolute vorticity advection processes. For the CP-type precipitation mode, however, there are both significant vorticity forcing source over the subtropical CP and clear poleward-propagation of Rossby wave. The spatial distribution of the CP-type precipitation pattern tends to excite a conspicuous anomalous southerly and a well-organized negative vorticity center over the subtropical CP where both the mean absolute vorticity gradient and mean divergence flow are large, hence, the interaction between the heating-induced anomalous circulation and the basic state made the generation of Rossby waves conceivable and effective. Such corresponding teleconnection responses to the prescribed heating were also examined by using a Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM). It turned out that significant poleward teleconnection pattern is only caused by the CP-type precipitation mode, rather than by the EP-type precipitation mode. Further sensitive experiments

  6. Evolution patterns of El Niño and characteristics of typhoon precipitation over East Asia (United States)

    Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Jong-Suk; Son, Chan-Young; Yoon, Sun-Kwon


    Many studies have been conducted on the characteristics of the activity of a tropical cyclone (TC) in the Pacific region regarding the effect of El Niño. Also, recent research has shown that change in the abnormal pattern of sea surface temperature (SST), which is higher than usual in the northwest Pacific region, has progressed considerably, and specifically, that there has been an increase in the frequency of the occurrence of the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño, which has a higher temperature characteristic than usual in the CP region. Consequently, this study conducted a comparative analysis of changes in TC genesis, TC track, and TC intensity focusing on typhoons that affected the Korean peninsula according to three evolutionary patterns (prolonged, abrupt, and symmetric-decay) of the abnormal SST in the CP region. As a result of the analysis, for the years of prolonged-decay and symmetric-decay, precipitation from typhoons during the summer on the Korean peninsula was found to rise markedly compared with usual levels. In the case of the years of abrupt-decay, a reducing pattern of precipitation during the summer appeared throughout the Korean peninsula, and an analysis showed a statistically significant change in the Han River basin and some parts of the southern basin. Such a change should show the obviously changing characteristics of local rainfall owing to change in the air circulation pattern, which is subsequent to change in the activity characteristic of typhoons according to the evolution pattern of the surface of the Pacific. The results are expected to be utilized in the future as basic information for reducing damage by typhoons and establishing realistic solutions concerning the management of water resources in a changing change. Keywords: Evolution patterns of CP El Niño, Tropical cyclone, Summer rainfall

  7. Trends of precipitation characteristics in the Czech Republic over 1961–2012, their spatial patterns and links to temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan

    (2017) ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA16-04676S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation * trend analysis * spatial pattern * temperature * the North Atlantic Oscillation * the Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016

  8. Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Aloysius


    Full Text Available Despite their global significance, the impacts of climate change on water resources and associated ecosystem services in the Congo River basin (CRB have been understudied. Of particular need for decision makers is the availability of spatial and temporal variability of runoff projections. Here, with the aid of a spatially explicit hydrological model forced with precipitation and temperature projections from 25 global climate models (GCMs under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we explore the variability in modeled runoff in the near future (2016–2035 and mid-century (2046–2065. We find that total runoff from the CRB is projected to increase by 5 % [−9 %; 20 %] (mean – min and max – across model ensembles over the next two decades and by 7 % [−12 %; 24 %] by mid-century. Projected changes in runoff from subwatersheds distributed within the CRB vary in magnitude and sign. Over the equatorial region and in parts of northern and southwestern CRB, most models project an overall increase in precipitation and, subsequently, runoff. A simulated decrease in precipitation leads to a decline in runoff from headwater regions located in the northeastern and southeastern CRB. Climate model selection plays an important role in future projections for both magnitude and direction of change. The multimodel ensemble approach reveals that precipitation and runoff changes under business-as-usual and avoided greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5 vs. RCP4.5 are relatively similar in the near term but deviate in the midterm, which underscores the need for rapid action on climate change adaptation. Our assessment demonstrates the need to include uncertainties in climate model and emission scenario selection during decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

  9. Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin (United States)

    Aloysius, Noel; Saiers, James


    Despite their global significance, the impacts of climate change on water resources and associated ecosystem services in the Congo River basin (CRB) have been understudied. Of particular need for decision makers is the availability of spatial and temporal variability of runoff projections. Here, with the aid of a spatially explicit hydrological model forced with precipitation and temperature projections from 25 global climate models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we explore the variability in modeled runoff in the near future (2016-2035) and mid-century (2046-2065). We find that total runoff from the CRB is projected to increase by 5 % [-9 %; 20 %] (mean - min and max - across model ensembles) over the next two decades and by 7 % [-12 %; 24 %] by mid-century. Projected changes in runoff from subwatersheds distributed within the CRB vary in magnitude and sign. Over the equatorial region and in parts of northern and southwestern CRB, most models project an overall increase in precipitation and, subsequently, runoff. A simulated decrease in precipitation leads to a decline in runoff from headwater regions located in the northeastern and southeastern CRB. Climate model selection plays an important role in future projections for both magnitude and direction of change. The multimodel ensemble approach reveals that precipitation and runoff changes under business-as-usual and avoided greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5 vs. RCP4.5) are relatively similar in the near term but deviate in the midterm, which underscores the need for rapid action on climate change adaptation. Our assessment demonstrates the need to include uncertainties in climate model and emission scenario selection during decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

  10. Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme precipitation in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Hundecha, Y.; Lawrence, D.

    impact studies. Four methods are based on change factors and four are bias correction methods. The change factor methods perturb the observations according to changes in precipitation properties estimated from the Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The bias correction methods correct the output from...... the RCMs. The eight methods are used to downscale precipitation output from fifteen RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project for eleven catchments in Europe. The performance of the bias correction methods depends on the catchment, but in all cases they represent an improvement compared to RCM output. The overall...... results point to an increase in extreme precipitation in all the catchments in winter and in most catchments in summer. For each catchment, the results tend to agree on the direction of the change but differ in the magnitude. These differences can be mainly explained due to differences in the RCMs....

  11. Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia (United States)

    Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk


    Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

  12. Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN over Peninsular Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Syafrina


    Full Text Available A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF. New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081–2100. The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10–40 years.

  13. Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia (United States)

    Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.


    A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

  14. Indirect downscaling of global circulation model data based on atmospheric circulation and temperature for projections of future precipitation in hourly resolution (United States)

    Beck, F.; Bárdossy, A.


    Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.

  15. Changes in rainfall patterns in Mediterranean ecosystems: the MIND project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Papale D


    Full Text Available Will Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems be affected by the expected changes in precipitation regimes? If so, by how much and in which direction? These questions are at the basis of the research performed in context of the EU MIND project, whose key objectives were: i to investigate the potential effects of increasing drought on Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems at the process, ecosystem and regional scales and ii to assess ecosystem vulnerability to changes in rainfall patterns. A network of experimental study sites has been created in Portugal, Spain, France and Italy, where field manipulations alter the amount of water available to the ecosystem. The most up-to-date methods of ecophysiology, micrometeorology, soil ecology and remote sensing have been used to elucidate the mechanisms that regulate the response of vegetation and soil to changes in water availability. This information is providing the basis for the implementation and validation of simulation models capable of predicting the drought response of Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems, and their vulnerability to future climate change, on a larger scale. The out-coming results are elucidating how water availability affects plant ecophysiological processes, the dynamics of soil carbon and the overall exchange of mass and energy between the land and the atmosphere. This paper focuses on some of the important, yet preliminary, results on C and energy fluxes that have been obtained at the large scale troughfall manipulation experiment (Tolfa, Italy, in a forest dominated by Arbutus unedo L.

  16. Patterns of precipitation and soil moisture extremes in Texas, US: A complex network analysis (United States)

    Sun, Alexander Y.; Xia, Youlong; Caldwell, Todd G.; Hao, Zengchao


    Understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of extreme precipitation not only improves prediction skills, but also helps to prioritize hazard mitigation efforts. This study seeks to enhance the understanding of spatiotemporal covariation patterns embedded in precipitation (P) and soil moisture (SM) by using an event-based, complex-network-theoretic approach. Events concurrences are quantified using a nonparametric event synchronization measure, and spatial patterns of hydroclimate variables are analyzed by using several network measures and a community detection algorithm. SM-P coupling is examined using a directional event coincidence analysis measure that takes the order of event occurrences into account. The complex network approach is demonstrated for Texas, US, a region possessing a rich set of hydroclimate features and is frequented by catastrophic flooding. Gridded daily observed P data and simulated SM data are used to create complex networks of P and SM extremes. The uncovered high degree centrality regions and community structures are qualitatively in agreement with the overall existing knowledge of hydroclimate extremes in the study region. Our analyses provide new visual insights on the propagation, connectivity, and synchronicity of P extremes, as well as the SM-P coupling, in this flood-prone region, and can be readily used as a basis for event-driven predictive analytics for other regions.

  17. Projecting changes in regional temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States


    Justin T. Schoof; Scott M. Robeson


    Regional and local climate extremes, and their impacts, result from the multifaceted interplay between large-scale climate forcing, local environmental factors (physiography), and societal vulnerability. In this paper, we review historical and projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States, with a focus on strengths and weaknesses of (1) commonly used definitions for extremes such as thresholds and percentiles, (2) statistical approaches to quantifying change...

  18. Record dry summer in 2015 challenges precipitation projections in Central Europe (United States)

    Orth, René; Zscheischler, Jakob; Seneviratne, Sonia I.


    Central Europe was characterized by a humid-temperate climate in the 20th century. Climate change projections suggest that climate in this area will shift towards warmer temperatures by the end of the 21st century, while projected precipitation changes are highly uncertain. Here we show that the 2015 summer rainfall was the lowest on record since 1901 in Central Europe, and that climate models that perform best in the three driest years of the historical time period 1901-2015 project stronger drying trends in the 21st century than models that perform best in the remaining years. Analyses of precipitation and derived soil moisture reveal that the 2015 event was drier than both the recent 2003 or 2010 extreme summers in Central Europe. Additionally there are large anomalies in satellite-derived vegetation greenness. In terms of precipitation and temperature anomalies, the 2015 summer in Central Europe is found to lie between historical climate in the region and that characteristic of the Mediterranean area. Even though the models best capturing past droughts are not necessarily generally more reliable in the future, the 2015 drought event illustrates that potential future drying trends have severe implications and could be stronger than commonly assumed from the entire IPCC AR5 model ensemble.

  19. Serotonin projection patterns to the cochlear nucleus. (United States)

    Thompson, A M; Thompson, G C


    dorsal cochlear nucleus, we concluded that the serotoninergic projection pattern to the cochlear nucleus is divergent and non-specific. Double-labeled fiber segments were also present, but sparse, in the superior olive, localized mainly in periolivary regions; this indicated that the divergence of dorsal and median raphe neurons that extends throughout regions of the cochlear nucleus also extended well beyond the cochlear nucleus to include at least the superior olivary complex as well.

  20. Possible teleconnections between East and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in projected future climate change (United States)

    Woo, Sumin; Singh, Gyan Prakash; Oh, Jai-Ho; Lee, Kyoung-Min


    The present paper examined the teleconnections between two huge Asian summer monsoon components (South and East Asia) during three time slices in future: near-(2010-2039), mid-(2040-2069) and far-(2070-2100) futures under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For this purpose, a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model is used and integrated at 40 km horizontal resolution. To get more insight into the relationships between the two Asian monsoon components, we have studied the spatial displaying correlation coefficients (CCs) pattern of precipitation over the entire Asian monsoon region with that of South Asia and three regions of East Asia (North China, Korea-Japan and Southern China) separately during the same three time slices. The possible factors responsible for these teleconnections are explored by using mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and wind fields at 850 hPa. The CC pattern of precipitation over South Asia shows an in-phase relationship with North China and an out-of-phase relationship with Korea-Japan, while precipitation variations over Korea-Japan and Southern China exhibit an out-of-phase relationship with South Asia. The CCs analysis between the two Asian blocks during different time slices shows the strongest CCs during the near and far future with the RCP8.5 scenario. The CC pattern of precipitation over Korea-Japan and Southern China with the wind (at 850 hPa) and MSLP fields indicate that the major parts of the moisture over Korea-Japan gets transported from the west Pacific along the western limb of NPSH, while the moisture over Southern China comes from the Bay of Bengal and South China Seas for good monsoon activity.

  1. Recent Trends of the Tropical Hydrological Cycle Inferred from Global Precipitation Climatology Project and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project data (United States)

    Zhou, Y. P.; Xu, Kuan-Man; Sud, Y. C.; Betts, A. K.


    Scores of modeling studies have shown that increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere impact the global hydrologic cycle; however, disagreements on regional scales are large, and thus the simulated trends of such impacts, even for regions as large as the tropics, remain uncertain. The present investigation attempts to examine such trends in the observations using satellite data products comprising Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud and radiation. Specifically, evolving trends of the tropical hydrological cycle over the last 20-30 years were identified and analyzed. The results show (1) intensification of tropical precipitation in the rising regions of the Walker and Hadley circulations and weakening over the sinking regions of the associated overturning circulation; (2) poleward shift of the subtropical dry zones (up to 2deg/decade in June-July-August (JJA) in the Northern Hemisphere and 0.3-0.7deg/decade in June-July-August and September-October-November in the Southern Hemisphere) consistent with an overall broadening of the Hadley circulation; and (3) significant poleward migration (0.9-1.7deg/decade) of cloud boundaries of Hadley cell and plausible narrowing of the high cloudiness in the Intertropical Convergence Zone region in some seasons. These results support findings of some of the previous studies that showed strengthening of the tropical hydrological cycle and expansion of the Hadley cell that are potentially related to the recent global warming trends.

  2. Geographic patterns of networks derived from extreme precipitation over the Indian subcontinent (United States)

    Stolbova, Veronika; Bookhagen, Bodo; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Juergen


    Complex networks (CN) and event synchronization (ES) methods have been applied to study a number of climate phenomena such as Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), South-American Monsoon, and African Monsoon. These methods proved to be powerful tools to infer interdependencies in climate dynamics between geographical sites, spatial structures, and key regions of the considered climate phenomenon. Here, we use these methods to study the spatial temporal variability of the extreme rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, in order to filter the data by coarse-graining the network, and to identify geographic patterns that are signature features (spatial signatures) of the ISM. We find four main geographic patterns of networks derived from extreme precipitation over the Indian subcontinent using up-to-date satellite-derived, and high temporal and spatial resolution rain-gauge interpolated daily rainfall datasets. In order to prove that our results are also relevant for other climatic variables like pressure and temperature, we use re-analysis data provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). We find that two of the patterns revealed from the CN extreme rainfall analysis coincide with those obtained for the pressure and temperature fields, and all four above mentioned patterns can be explained by topography, winds, and monsoon circulation. CN and ES enable to select the most informative regions for the ISM, providing realistic description of the ISM dynamics with fewer data, and also help to infer geographic pattern that are spatial signatures of the ISM. These patterns deserve a special attention for the meteorologists and can be used as markers of the ISM variability.

  3. Soil response to long-term projections of extreme temperature and precipitation in the southern La Plata Basin (United States)

    Pántano, Vanesa C.; Penalba, Olga C.


    Projected changes were estimated considering the main variables which take part in soil-atmosphere interaction. The analysis was focused on the potential impact of these changes on soil hydric condition under extreme precipitation and evapotranspiration, using the combination of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and observational data. The region of study is the southern La Plata Basin that covers part of Argentine territory, where rainfed agriculture production is one of the most important economic activities. Monthly precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures were used from high quality-controlled observed data from 46 meteorological stations and the ensemble of seven CMIP5 GCMs in two periods: 1970-2005 and 2065-2100. Projected changes in monthly effective temperature and precipitation were analysed. These changes were combined with observed series for each probabilistic interval. The result was used as input variables for the water balance model in order to obtain consequent soil hydric condition (deficit or excess). Effective temperature and precipitation are expected to increase according to the projections of GCMs, with few exceptions. The analysis revealed increase (decrease) in the prevalence of evapotranspiration over precipitation, during spring (winter). Projections for autumn months show precipitation higher than potential evapotranspiration more frequently. Under dry extremes, the analysis revealed higher projected deficit conditions, impacting on crop development. On the other hand, under wet extremes, excess would reach higher values only in particular months. During December, projected increase in temperatures reduces the impact of extreme high precipitation but favours deficit conditions, affecting flower-fructification stage of summer crops.

  4. A 50-year precipitation analysis over Europe at 5.5km within the UERRA project (United States)

    Bazile, Eric; Abida, Rachid; Soci, Cornel; Verrelle, Antoine; Szczypta, Camille; Le Moigne, Patrick


    The UERRA project is a 4-year project (2014-2017) financed by the European Union under its 7th Framework Programme SPACE. One of its main objectives is to provide a 50-year reanalysis dataset of surface essential climate variables (ECV) at 5.5km grid at European scale, together with, as much as possible, uncertainty estimates. One of the ECV is the precipitation and this variable is of essential interest in weather forecasting, climate study and to "drive" hydrological model for water management, or agrometeorology. After a brief description of the method used for the precipitation analysis (Soci et al. 2016)during this project, the preliminary results will be presented. The estimation of uncertainties will be also discussed associated with the problem of the evolution of the observation density network and its impact on the long term series. Additional information about the UERRA project can be found at The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union, Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-SPACE-2013-1) under grant agreement no 607193.

  5. Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) (United States)

    Adler, Robert; Gu, Guojun; Huffman, George


    A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a

  6. Regional climate projections for the MENA-CORDEX domain: analysis of projected temperature and precipitation changes (United States)

    Hänsler, Andreas; Weber, Torsten; Eggert, Bastian; Saeed, Fahad; Jacob, Daniela


    Within the CORDEX initiative a multi-model suite of regionalized climate change information will be made available for several regions of the world. The German Climate Service Center (CSC) is taking part in this initiative by applying the regional climate model REMO to downscale global climate projections of different coupled general circulation models (GCMs) for several CORDEX domains. Also for the MENA-CORDEX domain, a set of regional climate change projections has been established at the CSC by downscaling CMIP5 projections of the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with the regional model REMO for the time period from 1950 to 2100 to a horizontal resolution of 0.44 degree. In this study we investigate projected changes in future climate conditions over the domain towards the end of the 21st century. Focus in the analysis is given to projected changes in the temperature and rainfall characteristics and their differences for the two scenarios will be highlighted.

  7. Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces (United States)

    Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.


    The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban

  8. Data Qualification Report: Precipitation and Surface Geology Data for Use on the Yucca Mountain Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    C. Wilson


    The unqualified data addressed in this qualification report have been cited in an Analysis Model Report (AMR) to support the Site Recommendation in determining the suitability of Yucca Mountain as a repository for high-level radioactive waste. The unqualified data include precipitation volumes and surface geology maps The precipitation data consist of daily precipitation volumes measured at Yucca Mountain. The surface geology data include identification of the types and surface expressions of geologic units and associated structural features such as faults. These data were directly used in AMR U0010, Simulation of Net Infiltration for Modern and Potential Future Climates, ANL-NBS-HS-000032 (Hevesi et al. 2000), to estimate net infiltration into Yucca Mountain. This report evaluates the unqualified data within the context of supporting studies of this type for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). The purpose of this report is to identify data that can be cited as qualified for use in technical products to support the YMP Site Recommendation and that may also be used to support the License Application. The qualified data may either be retained in the original Data Tracking Number (DTN) or placed in new DTNs generated as a result of the evaluation. The appropriateness and limitations (if any) of the data with respect to intended use are addressed in this report. In accordance with Attachment 1 of procedure AP-3.15Q, Rev. 02, Managing Technical Product Inputs, it has been determined that the unqualified precipitation and surface geology data are not used in the direct calculation of Principal Factors for postclosure safety or disruptive events. References to tables, figures, and sections from Hevesi et al. (2000) are based on Rev. 00 of that document

  9. Precipitation projections under GCMs perspective and Turkish Water Foundation (TWF) statistical downscaling model procedures (United States)

    Dabanlı, İsmail; Şen, Zekai


    The statistical climate downscaling model by the Turkish Water Foundation (TWF) is further developed and applied to a set of monthly precipitation records. The model is structured by two phases as spatial (regional) and temporal downscaling of global circulation model (GCM) scenarios. The TWF model takes into consideration the regional dependence function (RDF) for spatial structure and Markov whitening process (MWP) for temporal characteristics of the records to set projections. The impact of climate change on monthly precipitations is studied by downscaling Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) A2 and B2 emission scenarios from Max Plank Institute (EH40PYC) and Hadley Center (HadCM3). The main purposes are to explain the TWF statistical climate downscaling model procedures and to expose the validation tests, which are rewarded in same specifications as "very good" for all stations except one (Suhut) station in the Akarcay basin that is in the west central part of Turkey. Eventhough, the validation score is just a bit lower at the Suhut station, the results are "satisfactory." It is, therefore, possible to say that the TWF model has reasonably acceptable skill for highly accurate estimation regarding standard deviation ratio (SDR), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS) criteria. Based on the validated model, precipitation predictions are generated from 2011 to 2100 by using 30-year reference observation period (1981-2010). Precipitation arithmetic average and standard deviation have less than 5% error for EH40PYC and HadCM3 SRES (A2 and B2) scenarios.

  10. Stochastic characterization of regional circulation patterns for climate model diagnosis and estimation of local precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zorita, E.; Hughes, J.P.


    Two statistical approaches for linking large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and daily local rainfall are described and applied to several GCM (general circulation model) climate simulations. The ultimate objective is to simulate local precipitation associated with alternative climates. The index stations are located near the West and East North American coasts. The first method is based on CART analysis (Classification and Regression trees). It finds the classification of observed daily SLR (sea level pressure) fields in weather types that are most strongly associated with the presence/absence of rainfall in a set of index stations. The best results were obtained for winter rainfall for the West Coast, where a set of physically reasonable weather types could be identified, whereas for the East Coast the rainfall process seemed to be spatially less coherent. The GCM simulations were validated against observations in terms of probability of occurrence and survival time of these weather states. Some discrepancies werefound but there was no systematic bias, indicating that this behavior depends on the particular dynamics of each model. This classification method was then used for the generation of daily rainfall time series from the daily SLP fields from historical observation and from the GCM simulations. Whereas the mean rainfall and probability distributions were rather well replicated, the simulated dry periods were in all cases shorter than in the rainfall observations. The second rainfall generator is based on the analog method and uses information on the evolution of the SLP field in several previous days. It was found to perform reasonably well, although some downward bias in the simulated rainfall persistence was still present. Rainfall changes in a 2xCO 2 climate were investigated by applying both methods to the output of a greenhouse-gas experiment. The simulated precipitation changes were small. (orig.)


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika Miklos


    Full Text Available Projected precipitation changes in Central/Eastern Europe on the basis of ENSEMBLE simulations. For building appropriate local/national adaptation and mitigation strategies, detailed analysis of regional climate change is essential. In order to estimate the climate change for the 21st century, both global and regional models may be used. However, due to the coarse horizontal resolution, global climate models are not appropriate to describe regional scale climate processes. On the other hand, regional climate models (RCMs provide more realistic regional climate scenarios. A wide range of RCM experiments was accomplished in the frame of the ENSEMBLES project funded by the EU FP6 program, which was one of the largest climate change research project ever completed. All the RCM experiments used 25 km horizontal resolution and the A1B emission scenario, according to which CO2 concentration by 2100 is estimated to exceed 700 ppm, i.e., more than twice of the preindustrial level.The 25 km spatial resolution is fine enough to estimate the future hydrology-related conditions in different parts of Europe, from which we separated and analyzed simulated climate data sets for the Central/Eastern European region. Precipitation is an especially important climatological variable because of agricultural aspects and flood-related natural hazards, which may seriously affect all the countries in the evaluated region. On the basis of our results, different RCM simulations generally project drier summers and wetter winters (compared to the recent decades. The southern countries are more likely to suffer more intense warming, especially, in summer, and also, more intense drought events due to the stronger Mediterranean impact.

  12. Accounting for dynamics of mean precipitation in drought projections: A case study of Brazil for the 2050 and 2070 periods. (United States)

    Mpelasoka, Freddie; Awange, Joseph L; Goncalves, Rodrigo Mikosz


    Changes in drought around the globe are among the most daunting potential effects of climate change. However, changes in droughts are often not well distinguished from changes in aridity levels. As drought constitutes conditions of aridity, the projected declines in mean precipitation tend to override changes in drought. This results in projections of more dire changes in drought than ever. The overestimate of changes can be attributed to the use of 'static' normal precipitation in the derivation of drought events. The failure in distinguishing drought from aridity is a conceptual problem of concern, particularly to drought policymakers. Given that the key objective of drought policies is to determine drought conditions, which are rare and so protracted that they are beyond the scope of normal risk management, for interventions. The main objective of this Case Study of Brazil is to demonstrate the differences between projections of changes in drought based on 'static' and '30-year dynamic' precipitation normal conditions. First we demonstrate that the 'static' based projections suggest 4-fold changes in the probability of drought-year occurrences against changes by the dynamic normal precipitation. The 'static-normal mean precipitation' based projections tend to be monotonically increasing in magnitude, and were arguably considered unrealistic. Based on the '30-year dynamic' normal precipitation conditions, the 13-member GCM ensemble median projection estimates of changes for 2050 under rcp4.5 1 and rcp8.5 2 suggest: (i) Significant differences between changes associated with rcp4.5 and rcp8.5, and are more noticeable for droughts at long than short timescales in the 2070; (ii) Overall, the results demonstrate more realistic projections of changes in drought characteristics over Brazil than previous projections based on 'static' normal precipitation conditions. However, the uncertainty of response of droughts to climate change in CMIP5 simulations is still large

  13. Data Qualification Report: Precipitation Chloride Data for Use on the Yucca Mountain Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    C. Wilson


    The data covered by this qualification report have been cited in analysis/model reports (AMRs) to support the Site Recommendation in determining the suitability of Yucca Mountain as a repository for high level nuclear waste. Those analyses cited both qualified and unqualified hydrochemical data. This report evaluates unqualified precipitation chloride data based on the pedigree of the data and within the context of supporting analyses on the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). The following AMRs use the unqualified chloride data considered in this report: (1) AMR S0040, ''Geochemical and Isotopic Constraints on Groundwater Flow Directions, Mixing and Recharge at Yucca Mountain'' (ANL-NBS-HS-000021) (Kwicklis 2000)--an analysis of groundwater recharge rates, flow directions and velocities, and mixing proportions of water from different source areas based on groundwater geochemical and isotopic data. (2) AMR U0085, ''Analysis of Geochemical Data for the Unsaturated Zone'' (ANL-NBS-HS-000017) (Fabryka-Martin 2000)--identifies fluid geochemical parameters for the unsaturated zone, local precipitation, and surface water; discusses the occurrence and origins of fracture minerals; and presents a thermal history of the unsaturated zone. These data are being evaluated for inclusion in technical products to include AMRs and Process Modeling Reports (PMRs) that support the Site Recommendation and that may also be used to support the License Application. A finding that the precipitation chloride data are qualified means that the data are adequate for generalized use and can be appropriately used in a wide variety of applications, so long as consideration is given to limitations on the accuracy, precision and representativeness of the data for an intended use in a technical product

  14. Spatial Pattern and Scale Influence Invader Demographic Response to Simulated Precipitation Change in an Annual Grassland Community.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meghan J Skaer Thomason

    Full Text Available It is important to predict which invasive species will benefit from future changes in climate, and thereby identify those invaders that need particular attention and prioritization of management efforts. Because establishment, persistence, and spread determine invasion success, this prediction requires detailed demographic information. Explicit study of the impact of pattern on demographic response is particularly important for species that are naturally patchy, such as the invasive grass, Aegilops triuncialis. In the northern California Coast Range, where climate change may increase or decrease mean annual rainfall, we conducted a field experiment to understand the interaction of climate change and local-scale patterning on the demography of A. triuncialis. We manipulated precipitation (reduced, ambient, or augmented, seed density, and seeding pattern. Demographic and environmental data were collected for three years following initial seeding. Pattern and scale figure prominently in the demographic response of A. triuncialis to precipitation manipulation. Pattern interacts with precipitation and seeding density in its influence on per-plant seed output. Although per-plot seed production was highest when seeds were not aggregated, per-plant seed output was higher in aggregated patches. Results suggest aggregation of invasive A. triuncialis reduces the detrimental impact of interspecific competition in its invaded community, and that interspecific competition per se has a stronger impact than intraspecific competition.

  15. A new pattern of the moisture transport for precipitation related to the drastic decline in Arctic sea ice extent (United States)

    Gimeno-Sotelo, Luis; Nieto, Raquel; Vázquez, Marta; Gimeno, Luis


    In this study we use the term moisture transport for precipitation for a target region as the moisture coming to this region from its major moisture sources resulting in precipitation over the target region (MTP). We have identified changes in the pattern of moisture transport for precipitation over the Arctic region, the Arctic Ocean, and its 13 main subdomains concurrent with the major sea ice decline that occurred in 2003. The pattern consists of a general decrease in moisture transport in summer and enhanced moisture transport in autumn and early winter, with different contributions depending on the moisture source and ocean subregion. The pattern is statistically significant and consistent with changes in the vertically integrated moisture fluxes and frequency of circulation types. The results of this paper also reveal that the assumed and partially documented enhanced poleward moisture transport from lower latitudes as a consequence of increased moisture from climate change seems to be less simple and constant than typically recognised in relation to enhanced Arctic precipitation throughout the year in the present climate.

  16. Spatiotemporal Patterns of Precipitation-Modulated Landslide Deformation From Independent Component Analysis of InSAR Time Series (United States)

    Cohen-Waeber, J.; Bürgmann, R.; Chaussard, E.; Giannico, C.; Ferretti, A.


    Long-term landslide deformation is disruptive and costly in urbanized environments. We rely on TerraSAR-X satellite images (2009-2014) and an improved data processing algorithm (SqueeSAR™) to produce an exceptionally dense Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar ground deformation time series for the San Francisco East Bay Hills. Independent and principal component analyses of the time series reveal four distinct spatial and temporal surface deformation patterns in the area around Blakemont landslide, which we relate to different geomechanical processes. Two components of time-dependent landslide deformation isolate continuous motion and motion driven by precipitation-modulated pore pressure changes controlled by annual seasonal cycles and multiyear drought conditions. Two components capturing more widespread seasonal deformation separate precipitation-modulated soil swelling from annual cycles that may be related to groundwater level changes and thermal expansion of buildings. High-resolution characterization of landslide response to precipitation is a first step toward improved hazard forecasting.

  17. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)


    ;'state-of-the-art'' of present climate modeling. First, various criteria were computed making it possible to evaluate the models' skills in simulating late twentieth century precipitation over continental areas as well as their divergence in projecting climate change conditions. Despite the relatively poor skill of most of the climate models in simulating present-day large scale precipitation patterns, we identified two types of models: the climate models with moderate-to-normal (i.e., close to observations) precipitation amplitudes over the Amazonian basin; and the climate models with a low precipitation in that region and too high a precipitation on the equatorial Pacific coast. Under SRES A2 greenhouse gas forcing, the neural network simulates an increase in precipitation over the La Plata basin coherent with the mean model ensemble projection. Over the Amazonian basin, a decrease in precipitation is projected. (orig.)

  18. Variability modes of precipitation along a Central Mediterranean area and their relations with ENSO, NAO, and other climatic patterns (United States)

    Kalimeris, Anastasios; Ranieri, Ezio; Founda, Dimitra; Norrant, Caroline


    This study analyses a century-long set of precipitation time series in the Central Mediterranean (encompassing the Greek Ionian and the Italian Puglia regions) and investigates the statistically significant modes of the interannual precipitation variability using efficient methods of spectral decomposition. The statistical relations and the possible physical couplings between the detected modes and the global or hemispheric patterns of climatic variability (the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO, the East Atlantic or EA, the Scandinavian or SCAND, and others) were examined in the time-frequency domain and low-order synchronization events were sought. Significant modes of precipitation variability were detected in the Taranto Gulf and the southern part of the Greek Ionian region at the sub-decadal scales (mostly driven by the SCAND pattern) and particularly at the decadal and quasi-decadal scales, where strong relations found with the ENSO activity (under complex implications of EA and NAO) prior to the 1930s or after the early-1970s. The precipitation variations in the Adriatic stations of Puglia are dominated by significant bi-decadal modes which found to be coherent with the ENSO activity and also weakly related with the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature intrinsic variability. Additionally, important discontinuities characterize the evolution of precipitation in certain stations of the Taranto Gulf and the Greek Ionian region during the early-1960s and particularly during the early-1970s, followed by significant reductions in the mean annual precipitation. These discontinuities seem to be associated with regional effects of NAO and SCAND, probably combined with the impact of the 1970s climatic shift in the Pacific and the ENSO variability.

  19. Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets (United States)

    Adler, R.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G.; Bolvin, D.; Nelkin, E.


    This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe

  20. Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes (United States)

    Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.


    Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.

  1. Impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C on precipitation patterns in China by regional climate model (COSMO-CLM) (United States)

    Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zhai, Jianqing; Huang, Jinlong; Wang, Yanjun; Wen, Shanshan; Zeng, Xiaofan; Su, Buda


    Regional precipitation patterns may change in a warmer climate, thereby increasing flood and drought risks. In this paper, annual, annual maximum, intense, heavy, moderate, light, and trace precipitation are employed as indicators to assess changes in precipitation patterns under two scenarios in which the global mean temperature increases by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The results show that annual precipitation in China will be approximately 2.5% higher under 1.5 °C warming relative to the present-day baseline (1980-2009), although it will decrease by approximately 4.0% under an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. This trend is spatially consistent for regions with annual precipitation of 400-800 mm, which has experienced a drying trend during the past half century; thus, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may mitigate these drying conditions. The annual maximum precipitation continues to increase from present day levels to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Relative to the baseline period, the frequency of trace and light precipitation days exhibits a negative trend, while that of moderate, heavy, and intense precipitation days has a positive trend under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. For the 2.0 °C warming world, the frequency of days is projected to decrease for all precipitation categories, although the intensity of intense precipitation increases. Spatially, a decrease in the number of precipitation days is expected to continue in central and northern China, where a drying trend has persisted over the past half century. Southeastern China, which already suffers greatly from flooding, is expected to face more heavy and intense precipitation with an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. Meanwhile, the intensity of intense precipitation is expected to increase in northern China, and the contribution of light and moderate precipitation to the annual

  2. The impact of spatial resolution on resolving spatial precipitation patterns in the Himalayas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonekamp, P.N.J.; Collier, S.E.; Immerzeel, W.W.


    Frequently used gridded meteorological datasets poorly represent precipitation in the Himalaya due to their relatively low spatial resolution and the associated coarse representation of the complex topography. Dynamical downscaling using high-resolution atmospheric models may improve the accuracy

  3. The impact of spatial resolution on resolving spatial precipitation patterns in the Himalayas


    Bonekamp, P.N.J.; Collier, S.E.; Immerzeel, W.W.


    Frequently used gridded meteorological datasets poorly represent precipitation in the Himalaya due to their relatively low spatial resolution and the associated coarse representation of the complex topography. Dynamical downscaling using high-resolution atmospheric models may improve the accuracy and quality of the precipitation fields, as simulations at higher spatial resolution are more capable of resolving the interaction between the topography and the atmosphere. However, most physics par...

  4. Plant Water Use Strategy in Response to Spatial and Temporal Variation in Precipitation Patterns in China: A Stable Isotope Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Zhao


    Full Text Available Spatial and temporal variation in precipitation patterns can directly alter the survival and growth of plants, yet in China there is no comprehensive and systematic strategy for plant use based on the effects of precipitation patterns. Here, we examined information from 93 published papers (368 plant species on plant xylem water stable isotopes (δD and δ18O in China. The results showed that: (1 The slope of the local meteoric water line (LMWL gradually increased from inland areas to the coast, as a result of continental and seasonal effects. The correlation between δD and δ18O in plant stem water is also well fitted and the correlation coefficients range from 0.78 to 0.89. With respect to the soil water line, the δ18O values in relation to depth (0–100 cm varied over time; (2 Plants’ main water sources are largely affected by precipitation patterns. In general, plants prioritize the use of stable and continuous water sources, while they have a more variable water uptake strategy under drought conditions; (3 There are no spatial and temporal variations in the contribution of the main water source (p > 0.05 because plants maintain growth by shifting their use of water sources when resources are unreliable.

  5. Local short-duration precipitation extremes in Sweden: observations, forecasts and projections (United States)

    Olsson, Jonas; Berg, Peter; Simonsson, Lennart


    Local short-duration precipitation extremes (LSPEs) are a key driver of hydrological hazards, notably in steep catchments with thin soils and in urban environments. The triggered floodings, landslides, etc., have large consequences for society in terms of both economy and health. Accurate estimations of LSPEs on both climatological time-scales (past, present, future) and in real-time is thus of great importance for improved hydrological predictions as well as design of constructions and infrastructure affected by hydrological fluxes. Analysis of LSPEs is, however, associated with various limitations and uncertainties. These are to a large degree associated with the small-scale nature of the meteorological processes behind LSPEs and the associated requirements on observation sensors as well as model descriptions. Some examples of causes for the limitations involved are given in the following. - Observations: High-resolution data sets available for LSPE analyses are often limited to either relatively long series from one or a few stations or relatively short series from larger station networks. Radar data have excellent resolutions in both time and space but the estimated local precipitation intensity is still highly uncertain. New and promising techniques (e.g. microwave links) are still in their infancy. - Weather forecasts (short-range): Although forecasts with the required spatial resolution for potential generation of LSPEs (around 2-4 km) are becoming operationally available, the actual forecast precision of LSPEs is largely unknown. Forecasted LSPEs may be displaced in time or, more critically, in space which strongly affects the possibility to assess hydrological risk. - Climate projections: The spatial resolution of the current RCM generation (around 25 km) is not sufficient for proper description of LSPEs. Statistical post-processing (i.e. downscaling) is required which adds substantial uncertainty to the final result. Ensemble generation of sufficiently

  6. Data of groundwater from boreholes, river water and precipitation for the Horonobe Underground Research Laboratory project. 2011-2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amano, Yuki; Yamamoto, Yoichi; Nanjyo, Isao; Murakami, Hiroaki; Yokota, Hideharu; Yamazaki, Masanori; Iwatsuki, Teruki [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Geological Isolation Research and Development Directorate, Horonobe, Hokkaido (Japan); Kunimaru, Takanori [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Geological Isolation Research and Development Directorate, Mizunami, Gifu (Japan); Oyama, Takahiro [Central Research Inst. of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo (Japan)


    In the Horonobe Underground Research Laboratory (URL) Project, groundwater from boreholes, river water and precipitation have been analyzed for the environmental monitoring since the fiscal year 2001. This report shows the data set of water chemistry since the fiscal year 2001 to the fiscal year 2010. (author)

  7. A dynamical characterization of the uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change in the semi-arid tropics (United States)

    Giannini, A.


    The uncertainty in CMIP multi-model ensembles of regional precipitation change in tropical regions is well known: taken at face value, models do not agree on the direction of precipitation change. Consequently, in adaptation discourse, either projections are discounted, e.g., by giving more relevance to temperature projections, or outcomes are grossly misrepresented, e.g., in extrapolating recent drought into the long-term future. That this is an unsatisfactory state of affairs, given the dominant role of precipitation in shaping climate-sensitive human endeavors in the tropics, is an understatement.Here I will provide a dynamical characterization of the uncertainty in regional precipitation projections that exploits the CMIP multi-model ensembles. This characterization is based on decomposing the moisture budget and relating its terms to the influence of the oceans, specifically to the roles of moisture supply and stabilization of the vertical profile. I will discuss some preliminary findings highlighting the relevance of lessons learned from seasonal-to-interannual prediction. One such lesson is to go beyond the projection taken at face value, and understand physical processes, specifically, the role of the oceans, in order to be able to make qualitative arguments, in addition to quantitative predictions. One other lesson is to abandon the search for the "best model" and exploit the multi-model ensemble to characterize "emergent constraints".

  8. Data of groundwater from boreholes, river water and precipitation for the Horonobe Underground Research Laboratory project. 2011-2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amano, Yuki; Yamamoto, Yoichi; Nanjyo, Isao; Murakami, Hiroaki; Yokota, Hideharu; Yamazaki, Masanori; Iwatsuki, Teruki; Kunimaru, Takanori; Oyama, Takahiro


    In the Horonobe Underground Research Laboratory (URL) Project, groundwater from boreholes, river water and precipitation have been analyzed for the environmental monitoring since the fiscal year 2001. This report shows the data set of water chemistry since the fiscal year 2001 to the fiscal year 2010. (author)

  9. Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Lei [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Qian, Yun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhang, Yaocun [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Zhao, Chun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Leung, L. Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Huang, Anning [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Xiao, Chuliang [Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MI USA


    This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation, the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.

  10. Insights into changes in precipitation patterns in Brazil from oxygen isotope ratios on speleothems (United States)

    Cruz, F.; Mathias, V.; Stephen, B. J.; Wang, X.; Cheng, H.; Werner, M.; Edwards, R. L.; Karmann, I.; Auler, A. S.


    Variations in tropical precipitation on millennial and orbital time scales can reflect a Hadley-cell-related anti- phasing between the Northern and Southern hemispheres due to the influence of insolation on the global summer monsoons. A new δ18O speleothem record from northeastern Brazil shows that insolation- driven changes in monsoon intensity are capable of producing a similar, zonally oriented anti-phasing within the same hemisphere. Comparison of our speleothem record with other precipitation-sensitive proxies from the central Andes and southeastern Brazil shows that precipitation in Northeastern Brazil has been out of phase with insolation and rainfall in the rest of tropical South America south of the equator since the Last Glacial Maximum. Northeastern Brazil experienced humid conditions when summer insolation was reduced and arid conditions when insolation was high. While previous interpretations of past climate change in NE South America have commonly invoked meridional displacements in ITCZ location as the main mechanism for changes in precipitation on millennial time scales, our results suggest that remote monsoon forcing is responsible for much of the observed precipitation changes on orbital time scales during the Holocene. These results demonstrate that orbitally driven out-of-phase relationships in precipitation are not limited to interhemispheric anti-phasing as demonstrated previously, but may well occur within the same hemisphere. Speleothem records also indicate contrasting climatic conditions around the Last Glacial Maximum in Brazil, characterized by marked dry and wet climates in the Nordeste and in southeastern Brazil, respectively. It is likely, however, that these regional differences primarily reflect more distant extratropical teleconnections from the Atlantic Ocean and high northern latitude changes during glacial conditions.

  11. Simulation and spatiotemporal pattern of air temperature and precipitation in Eastern Central Asia using RegCM. (United States)

    Meng, Xianyong; Long, Aihua; Wu, Yiping; Yin, Gang; Wang, Hao; Ji, Xiaonan


    Central Asia is a region that has a large land mass, yet meteorological stations in this area are relatively scarce. To address this data issues, in this study, we selected two reanalysis datasets (the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR) and downscaled them to 40 × 40 km using RegCM. Then three gridded datasets (the CRU, APHRO, and WM) that were extrapolated from the observations of Central Asian meteorological stations to evaluate the performance of RegCM and analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and air temperature. We found that since the 1960s, the air temperature in Xinjiang shows an increasing trend and the distribution of precipitation in the Tianshan area is quite complex. The precipitation is increasing in the south of the Tianshan Mountains (Southern Xinjiang, SX) and decreasing in the mountainous areas. The CRU and WM data indicate that precipitation in the north of the Tianshan Mountains (Northern Xinjiang, NX) is increasing, while the APHRO data show an opposite trend. The downscaled results from RegCM are generally consistent with the extrapolated gridded datasets in terms of the spatiotemporal patterns. We believe that our results can provide useful information in developing a regional climate model in Central Asia where meteorological stations are scarce.

  12. Spatial patterns of sea surface temperature influences on East African precipitation as revealed by empirical orthogonal teleconnections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim eAppelhans


    Full Text Available East Africa is characterized by a rather dry annual precipitation climatology with two distinct rainy seasons. In order to investigate sea surface temperature driven precipitation anomalies for the region we use the algorithm of empirical orthogonal teleconnection analysis as a data mining tool. We investigate the entire East African domain as well as 5 smaller sub-regions mainly located in areas of mountainous terrain. In searching for influential sea surface temperature patterns we do not focus any particular season or oceanic region. Furthermore, we investigate different time lags from zero to twelve months. The strongest influence is identified for the immediate (i.e. non-lagged influences of the Indian Ocean in close vicinity to the East African coast. None of the most important modes are located in the tropical Pacific Ocean, though the region is sometimes coupled with the Indian Ocean basin. Furthermore, we identify a region in the southern Indian Ocean around the Kerguelen Plateau which has not yet been reported in the literature with regard to precipitation modulation in East Africa. Finally, it is observed that not all regions in East Africa are equally influenced by the identified patterns.

  13. Stabilization and destabilization effects of the electric field on stochastic precipitate pattern

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lagzi, István; Izsak, F.


    Stabilization and destabilization effects of an applied electric field on the Liesegang pattern formation in low concentration gradient were studied with numerical model simulations. In the absence of an electric field pattern formation exhibits increasingly stochastic behaviour as the initial

  14. Circulation pattern-based assessment of projected climate change for a catchment in Spain (United States)

    Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Jódar, Jorge; Carrera, Jesús


    We present an approach for evaluating catchment-scale hydro-meteorological impacts of projected climate change based on the atmospheric circulation patterns (ACPs) of a region. Our approach is motivated by the conjecture that GCMs are especially good at simulating the atmospheric circulation patterns that control moisture transport, and which can be expected to change in response to global warming. In support of this, we show (for the late 20th century) that GCMs provide much better simulations of ACPs than those of precipitation amount for the Upper Guadiana Basin in central Spain. For the same period, four of the twenty GCMs participating in the most recent (5th) IPCC Assessment provide quite accurate representations of the spatial patterns of mean sea level pressure, the frequency distribution of ACP type, the 'number of rainy days per month', and the daily 'probability of rain' (they also reproduce the trend of 'wet day amount', though not the actual magnitudes). A consequent analysis of projected trends and changes in hydro-climatic ACPology between the late 20th and 21st Centuries indicates that (1) actual changes appear to be occurring faster than predicted by the models, and (2) for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) the expected decline in precipitation volume is associated mainly with a few specific ACPs (primarily directional flows from the Atlantic Ocean and Cantabric Sea), and with decreasing probability of rain (linked to increasing temperatures) rather than wet day amount. Our approach is a potentially more insightful alternative for catchment-scale climate impacts assessments than the common approach of statistical downscaling and bias correction.

  15. Changing Precipitation Patterns or Waning Glaciers? Identifying Water Supply Vulnerabilities to Climate Change in the Bolivian Andes (United States)

    Guido, Z. S.; McIntosh, J. C.; Papuga, S. A.


    The Bolivian Andes have become an iconic example for the impacts of climate change. Glaciers are rapidly melting and some have already completely disappeared. More than 75 percent of the water consumed by 2 million people living on the flanks of the Bolivian Andes comes from mountains and it is often cited that the dwindling ice threatens the water supply of the expanding and destitute population living in the twin cities of La Paz and El Alto. However, the wet and the warm seasons and the cold and dry seasons coincide, causing high precipitation and ice melt—and therefore high streamflows—to occur only in the austral summer (October-March); during the austral winter, cold conditions limit glacier melt. This suggests that reductions in the water supply could be influenced more by changing precipitation amounts than continued glacial mass-wasting. We hypothesize that precipitation is the principal component of groundwater recharge for the aquifers at the base of the central Cordillera Real. Oxygen and hydrogen isotopes from rivers partially fed by glaciers, groundwater, and glacial melt water can help determine the relative contribution of precipitation and glacial melt to important water supplies. During the dry season in August 2010, we sampled 23 sites that follow the flow path of water in the Condiriri watershed, beginning in the glacial headwaters and ending several kilometers upriver from Lake Titicaca. We collected five samples at the toe of the Pequeño Alpamayo glacier and four samples from three tributary rivers that drain glaciated headwaters, which include meltwater from the Pequeño Alpamayo glacier. W also collected 14 water samples from shallow and deep wells in rural communities within 40 kilometers of the glaciers. If the isotopic values of groundwater are similar to rain values, as we suspect, precipitation is likely the largest contributor to groundwater resources in the region and will suggest that changing precipitation patterns present the

  16. Weather Type classification over Chile; patterns, trends, and impact in precipitation and temperature (United States)

    Frias, T.; Trigo, R. M.; Garreaud, R.


    The Andes Cordillera induces considerable disturbances on the structure and evolution of the pressure systems that influences South America. Different weather types for southern South America are derived from the daily maps of geopotential height at 850hPa corresponding to a 42 year period, spanning from 1958 to 2000. Here we have used the ECWMF ERA-40 reanalysis dataset to construct an automated version of the Lamb Weather type (WTs) classification scheme (Jones et al., 1993) developed for the UK. We have identified 8 basic WTs (Cyclonic, Anticyclonic and 6 main directional types) following a similar methodology to that previously adopted by Trigo and DaCamara, 2000 (for Iberia). This classification was applied to two regions of study (CLnorth and CLsouth) which differ 20° in latitude, so that the vast Chile territory could be covered. Then were assessed the impact of the occurrence of this weather types in precipitation in Chile, as well as in the distribution of precipitation and temperature fields (reanalysis data) in southern half of South America. The results allow to conclude that the precipitation in central region of Chile is largely linked with the class occurrence (concerning CLnorth) of cyclonic circulation and of West quadrant (SW, W and NW), despite of it's relatively low frequency. In CLsouth, for its part, it is verified that the most frequent circulation is from the west quadrant, although the associated amount of rainfall is lower than in CLnorth. There was also a general decrease of precipitation at local weather stations chosen in the considered period of study, particularly in austral winter.

  17. Evaluation of spatial and spatiotemporal estimation methods in simulation of precipitation variability patterns (United States)

    Bayat, Bardia; Zahraie, Banafsheh; Taghavi, Farahnaz; Nasseri, Mohsen


    Identification of spatial and spatiotemporal precipitation variations plays an important role in different hydrological applications such as missing data estimation. In this paper, the results of Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) and ordinary kriging (OK) are compared for modeling spatial and spatiotemporal variations of annual precipitation with and without incorporating elevation variations. The study area of this research is Namak Lake watershed located in the central part of Iran with an area of approximately 90,000 km2. The BME and OK methods have been used to model the spatial and spatiotemporal variations of precipitation in this watershed, and their performances have been evaluated using cross-validation statistics. The results of the case study have shown the superiority of BME over OK in both spatial and spatiotemporal modes. The results have shown that BME estimates are less biased and more accurate than OK. The improvements in the BME estimates are mostly related to incorporating hard and soft data in the estimation process, which resulted in more detailed and reliable results. Estimation error variance for BME results is less than OK estimations in the study area in both spatial and spatiotemporal modes.

  18. Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Climate Data Record (CDR), Version 1.3 (Daily) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The GPCP Daily analysis is a companion to the GPCP Monthly analysis, and provides globally complete precipitation estimates at a spatial resolution of one degree...

  19. Changes in seasonal and diurnal precipitation types during summer over South Korea in the late twenty-first century (2081-2100) projected by the RegCM4.0 based on four RCP scenarios (United States)

    Oh, Seok-Geun; Suh, Myoung-Seok


    Changes in seasonal and diurnal precipitation types over South Korea during summer in the late twenty-first century (2081-2100) were projected under four RCP scenarios using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.0) with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km. Two boundary conditions, ERA-Interim and HadGEM2-AO, were used to drive the RegCM4.0 (jointly named RG4_ERA and RG4_HG2, respectively). In general, the RegCM4.0 reproduces the spatial distribution of summer precipitation over Northeast Asia for the current climate (1989-2008) reasonably well. The RG4_HG2 shows larger dry biases over South Korea, when compared with observations, than does the RG4_ERA. These strong dry biases result from the underestimation of convective precipitation (CPR) and are particularly noticeable in late afternoons during July and August. It is related to the performance of HadGEM2-AO which simulated southwesterly winds weakly in that time. However, interestingly, the RG4_HG2 simulates similar increases in the contribution of CPR to total precipitation after mid-July, resulting in comparable performance in the reproduction of heavy precipitation. In the late twenty-first century, a significant increase (decrease) in CPR (NCPR) is generally projected over South Korea, and particularly under the RCP8.5. During June, the total precipitation is affected primarily by changes in NCPR under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0. After mid-July, increasing total precipitation is primarily caused by the distinct increases in CPR in the late afternoons; this pattern is particularly noticeable under RCP8.5, which is associated with more destabilized atmospheric conditions during July and August. Light and heavy precipitation are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under RCP8.5.

  20. Impact of Altered Precipitation Patterns on Plant Productivity and Soil Respiration in a Northern Great Plains Grassland (United States)

    Haase, L.; Flanagan, L. B.


    Precipitation patterns are expected to shift towards larger but fewer rain events, with longer intermittent dry periods, associated with climate change. The larger rain events may compensate for and help to mitigate climate change effects on key ecosystem functions such as plant productivity and soil respiration in semi-arid grasslands. We experimentally manipulated the amount and frequency of simulated precipitation added to trenched, treatment plots that were covered by rain shelters, and measured the response in plant productivity and soil respiration in a native, grassland ecosystem near Lethbridge, Alberta. We compared the observed responses to the predictions of a conceptual ecosystem response model developed by Knapp et al. 2008 (BioScience 58: 811-821). Two experiments were conducted during 14 weeks of the growing season from May-August. The first experiment (normal amount) applied total growing season precipitation of 180 mm (climate normal), and the second experiment (reduced amount) applied total precipitation of 90 mm. In both experiments, precipitation was applied at two frequencies, 1 rain event every week (normal frequency) and 1 rain event every two weeks (reduced frequency). In the normal amount experiment, the average rain event was 12.8 mm for the normal frequency treatment and 25.8 mm for the reduced frequency treatment. In the reduced amount experiment, the average rain event was 6.4 mm for the normal frequency treatment and 12.8 mm for the reduced frequency treatment. We hypothesized that larger but fewer rain events would result in increased plant productivity and soil respiration for both experiments. Plant greenness values calculated from digital photographs were used as a proxy for plant productivity, and showed significantly higher values for the normal vs. reduced amount experiment. Soil respiration rate also showed significantly higher values for the normal vs. reduced amount experiment. No significant treatment effect could be detected

  1. Spatial Pattern of Copper Phosphate Precipitation Involves in Copper Accumulation and Resistance of Unsaturated Pseudomonas putida CZ1 Biofilm. (United States)

    Chen, Guangcun; Lin, Huirong; Chen, Xincai


    Bacterial biofilms are spatially structured communities that contain bacterial cells with a wide range of physiological states. The spatial distribution and speciation of copper in unsaturated Pseudomonas putida CZ1 biofilms that accumulated 147.0 mg copper per g dry weight were determined by transmission electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive X-ray analysis, and micro-X-ray fluorescence microscopy coupled with micro-X-ray absorption near edge structure (micro-XANES) analysis. It was found that copper was mainly precipitated in a 75 μm thick layer as copper phosphate in the middle of the biofilm, while there were two living cell layers in the air-biofilm and biofilm-medium interfaces, respectively, distinguished from the copper precipitation layer by two interfaces. The X-ray absorption fine structure analysis of biofilm revealed that species resembling Cu₃(PO₄)₂ predominated in biofilm, followed by Cu-Citrate- and Cu-Glutathione-like species. Further analysis by micro-XANES revealed that 94.4% of copper were Cu₃(PO₄)₂-like species in the layer next to the air interface, whereas the copper species of the layer next to the medium interface were composed by 75.4% Cu₃(PO₄)₂, 10.9% Cu-Citrate-like species, and 11.2% Cu-Glutathione-like species. Thereby, it was suggested that copper was initially acquired by cells in the biofilm-air interface as a citrate complex, and then transported out and bound by out membranes of cells, released from the copper-bound membranes, and finally precipitated with phosphate in the extracellular matrix of the biofilm. These results revealed a clear spatial pattern of copper precipitation in unsaturated biofilm, which was responsible for the high copper tolerance and accumulation of the biofilm.

  2. Microbial decomposition of dead grassland roots and its influence on the carbon cycle under changing precipitation patterns (United States)

    Becerra, C.; Schimel, J.


    Soil is the largest reservoir of organic carbon in terrestrial ecosystems and as such, represents a potential sink for carbon dioxide.The decomposition products of dead roots buried in the soil is a contributor to soil organic carbon. However, changing precipitation patterns may affect its fate by influencing the microbial community responsible for decomposing dead roots. To assess the impact of changing precipitation patterns, we constructed microcosms with grassland soil collected from the UCSB Sedgwick Reserve, an active and long-term research site, and dead roots from greenhouse-grown grass, Bromus diandrus. Microcosms were wetted continuously, every seven days, or every twenty days. Sets of microcosms were periodically deconstructed to assess the soil versus the roots-associated microbial community and its function. Differences in respiration rates of microcosms continuously wetted or wetted every 7 days versus microcosms wetted every 20 days existed for the first 70 days. After which, no differences in respiration rates were seen with microcosms containing roots and the no roots control. Relatedly, after a 70% roots mass loss by day 50, there was no difference in the respiration rate of microcosms containing roots and the no roots control. More than half of the roots mass loss had occurred by 30 days. By the end of the incubation period, the roots mass loss in continuously wet and 7-day wetted microcosms were over 80% compared to 67% for the microcosms wetted every 20 days. Microbial biomass in the soil were constant over time and showed no difference in treatment except with the no roots control during the first half of the incubation period. Hydrolytic enzyme activities (β-1,4-glucosidase; α-1,4-glucosidase; β-1,4-xylosidase; β-1,4-cellobiosidase) on the roots versus the soil attached to the roots were over an order greater and decreased faster with the exception of N-acetyl-glucosaminidase and acid phosphatase. Oxidative enzyme activities (phenol

  3. Summer transport patterns affecting the Mohave Power Project emission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farber, R.J.; Hoffer, T.E.; Green, M.C.; Walsh, P.A. [Southern California Edison, Rosemead, CA (United States)


    The Mohave Power Project (MPP) is an isolated 1580-MW coal-fired electric generating plant located in Laughlin, NV. Laughlin is a small desert gambling town situated in the lower Colorado River Valley near the junction of three states: Nevada, California, and Arizona. The location of the MPP is approximately 155 km southwest of the western end of the Grand Canyon National Park and about 240 km southwest from the Grand Canyon Village. This paper describes the summer transport patterns of the MPP emittants using illustrated examples from the Project MOHAVE (measurements of Haze and Visual Effects) 1992 summer intensive study. The intensive study lasted 50 days from mid-July through August and encompassed the major meteorological patterns associated with southwestern US summer meteorology. The MPP emittants were transported towards the Grand Canyon (north to the northeast) during more than 80% of the total hours. Airflow as from the south most of the time due to a combination of the semi-permanent thermal low, differential heating between the Gulf of California and lower Colorado River Valley, and upslope heating of the southern and western slopes of the nearby Colorado Plateau. 14 refs., 12 figs., 2 tabs.

  4. Spatio-temporal trend analysis of projected precipitation data over Rwanda (United States)

    Muhire, I.; Tesfamichael, S. G.; Ahmed, F.; Minani, E.


    This study applied a number of statistical techniques aimed at quantifying the magnitude of projected mean rainfall and number of rainy days over Rwanda on monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales for the period 2015-2050. The datasets for this period were generated by BCM2.0 for the SRES emission scenario SRB1, CO2 concentration for the baseline scenario (2011-2030) using the stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG). It was observed that on average, there will be a steady decline in mean rainfall. Save for the short rainy season, a positive trend in mean rainfall is expected over the south-west, the north-east region, and the northern highlands. The other regions (central, south-east, and western regions) are likely to experience a decline in mean rainfall. The number of rainy days is expected to decrease in the central plateau and the south-eastern lowlands, while the south-west, the north-west, and north-east regions are expected to have a pattern of increased number of rainy days. This decline in mean rainfall and rainy days over a large part of Rwanda is an indicator of just how much the country is bound to experience reduced water supply for various uses (e.g., agriculture, domestic activities, and industrial activities).

  5. Palaeo-precipitation is a major determinant of palm species richness patterns across Madagascar: a tropical biodiversity hotspot (United States)

    Rakotoarinivo, Mijoro; Blach-Overgaard, Anne; Baker, William J.; Dransfield, John; Moat, Justin; Svenning, Jens-Christian


    The distribution of rainforest in many regions across the Earth was strongly affected by Pleistocene ice ages. However, the extent to which these dynamics are still important for modern-day biodiversity patterns within tropical biodiversity hotspots has not been assessed. We employ a comprehensive dataset of Madagascan palms (Arecaceae) and climate reconstructions from the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 000 years ago) to assess the relative role of modern environment and LGM climate in explaining geographical species richness patterns in this major tropical biodiversity hotspot. We found that palaeoclimate exerted a strong influence on palm species richness patterns, with richness peaking in areas with higher LGM precipitation relative to present-day even after controlling for modern environment, in particular in northeastern Madagascar, consistent with the persistence of tropical rainforest during the LGM primarily in this region. Our results provide evidence that diversity patterns in the World's most biodiverse regions may be shaped by long-term climate history as well as contemporary environment. PMID:23427173

  6. Ion Exchange Technology Development in Support of the Urine Processor Assembly Precipitation Prevention Project for the International Space Station (United States)

    Mitchell, Julie L.; Broyan, James L.; Pickering, Karen D.; Adam, Niklas; Casteel, Michael; Callahan, Michael; Carrier, Chris


    In support of the Urine Processor Assembly Precipitation Prevention Project (UPA PPP), multiple technologies were explored to prevent CaSO4 2H2O (gypsum) precipitation during the on-orbit distillation process. Gypsum precipitation currently limits the water recovery rate onboard the International Space Station (ISS) to 70% versus the planned 85% target water recovery rate. Due to its ability to remove calcium cations in pretreated augmented urine (PTAU), ion exchange was selected as one of the technologies for further development by the PPP team. A total of 13 ion exchange resins were evaluated in various equilibrium and dynamic column tests with solutions of dissolved gypsum, urine ersatz, PTAU, and PTAU brine at 85% water recovery. While initial evaluations indicated that the Purolite SST60 resin had the highest calcium capacity in PTAU (0.30 meq/mL average), later tests showed that the Dowex G26 and Amberlite FPC12H resins had the highest capacity (0.5 meq/mL average). Testing at the Marshall Spaceflight Center (MSFC) integrates the ion exchange technology with a UPA ground article under flight-like pulsed flow conditions with PTAU. To date, no gypsum precipitation has taken place in any of the initial evaluations.

  7. Short-Term Effects of Changing Precipitation Patterns on Shrub-Steppe Grasslands: Seasonal Watering Is More Important than Frequency of Watering Events. (United States)

    Densmore-McCulloch, Justine A; Thompson, Donald L; Fraser, Lauchlan H


    Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns. Droughts may become longer and more frequent, and the timing and intensity of precipitation may change. We tested how shifting precipitation patterns, both seasonally and by frequency of events, affects soil nitrogen availability, plant biomass and diversity in a shrub-steppe temperate grassland along a natural productivity gradient in Lac du Bois Grasslands Protected Area near Kamloops, British Columbia, Canada. We manipulated seasonal watering patterns by either exclusively watering in the spring or the fall. To simulate spring precipitation we restricted precipitation inputs in the fall, then added 50% more water than the long term average in the spring, and vice-versa for the fall precipitation treatment. Overall, the amount of precipitation remained roughly the same. We manipulated the frequency of rainfall events by either applying water weekly (frequent) or monthly (intensive). After 2 years, changes in the seasonality of watering had greater effects on plant biomass and diversity than changes in the frequency of watering. Fall watering reduced biomass and increased species diversity, while spring watering had little effect. The reduction in biomass in fall watered treatments was due to a decline in grasses, but not forbs. Plant available N, measured by Plant Root Simulator (PRS)-probes, increased from spring to summer to fall, and was higher in fall watered treatments compared to spring watered treatments when measured in the fall. The only effect observed due to frequency of watering events was greater extractable soil N in monthly applied treatments compared to weekly watering treatments. Understanding the effects of changing precipitation patterns on grasslands will allow improved grassland conservation and management in the face of global climatic change, and here we show that if precipitation is more abundant in the fall, compared to the spring, grassland primary productivity will likely be

  8. Fluoride pollution of atmospheric precipitation and its relationship with air circulation and weather patterns (Wielkopolski National Park, Poland). (United States)

    Walna, Barbara; Kurzyca, Iwona; Bednorz, Ewa; Kolendowicz, Leszek


    A 2-year study (2010-2011) of fluorides in atmospheric precipitation in the open area and in throughfall in Wielkopolski National Park (west-central Poland) showed their high concentrations, reaching a maximum value of 2 mg/l under the tree crowns. These high values indicate substantial deposition of up to 52 mg/m(2)/year. In 2011, over 51% of open area precipitation was characterized by fluoride concentration higher than 0.10 mg/l, and in throughfall such concentrations were found in more than 86% of events. In 2010, a strong connection was evident between fluoride and acid-forming ions, and in 2011, a correlation between phosphate and nitrite ions was seen. Analysis of available data on F(-) concentrations in the air did not show an unequivocal effect on F(-) concentrations in precipitation. To find reasons for and source areas of high fluoride pollution, the cases of extreme fluoride concentration in rainwater were related to atmospheric circulation and weather patterns. Weather conditions on days of extreme pollution were determined by movement of weather fronts over western Poland, or by small cyclonic centers with meteorological fronts. Macroscale air advection over the sampling site originated in the western quadrant (NW, W, and SW), particularly in the middle layers of the troposphere (2,500-5,000 m a.s.l.). Such directions indicate western Poland and Germany as possible sources of the pollution. At the same time in the lower troposphere, air inflow was frequently from the north, showing short distance transport from local emitters, and from the agglomeration of Poznań.

  9. Response of precipitation extremes to idealized global warming in an aqua-planet climate model: Towards robust projection across different horizontal resolutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, F.; Collins, W.D.; Wehner, M.F.; Williamson, D.L.; Olson, J.G.


    Current climate models produce quite heterogeneous projections for the responses of precipitation extremes to future climate change. To help understand the range of projections from multimodel ensembles, a series of idealized 'aquaplanet' Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) runs have been performed with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM3. These runs have been analysed to identify the effects of horizontal resolution on precipitation extreme projections under two simple global warming scenarios. We adopt the aquaplanet framework for our simulations to remove any sensitivity to the spatial resolution of external inputs and to focus on the roles of model physics and dynamics. Results show that a uniform increase of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase of low-to-high latitude SST gradient both lead to increase of precipitation and precipitation extremes for most latitudes. The perturbed SSTs generally have stronger impacts on precipitation extremes than on mean precipitation. Horizontal model resolution strongly affects the global warming signals in the extreme precipitation in tropical and subtropical regions but not in high latitude regions. This study illustrates that the effects of horizontal resolution have to be taken into account to develop more robust projections of precipitation extremes.

  10. Influence of the Anomalous Patterns of the Mascarene and Australian Highs on Precipitation during the Prerainy Season in South China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Han


    Full Text Available The authors investigate the features of precipitation during the prerainy season in South China (PSCPRS and the atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH, which is expected to influence the PSCPRS significantly. The Morlet wavelet method revealed that the PSCPRS has significant interannual variability, especially in its quasi-biennial oscillation. The PSCPRS exhibits a significant monsoonal precipitation pattern. Using singular value decomposition (SVD and composite analysis, the anomalous characteristics of SH atmospheric circulations and their impacts on the PSCPRS are studied. The results reveal that eastward movements or extensions of the Mascarene high (MH and Australian high (AH, which have quasi-baroclinic geopotential height structures in the lower and middle troposphere, are the most significant factors affecting the PSCPRS. Their impacts on the PSCPRS anomalies are further studied using the index east of the MH (IEMH and index east of the AH (IEAH. The IEMH and IEAH have notable significant positive correlations with the PSCPRS. When either the IEMH or IEAH is stronger (weaker, more (less rainfall occurs during the prerainy season in South China.

  11. Spatio-Temporal Variability of Summer Precipitation in Mexico under the Influence of the MJO, with Emphasis on the Bimodal Pattern (United States)

    Perdigón, J.; Romero-Centeno, R.; Barrett, B.; Ordoñez-Perez, P.


    In many regions of Mexico, precipitation occurs in a very well defined annual cycle with peaks in May-June and September-October and a relative minimum in the middle of the rainy season known as the midsummer drought (MSD). The MJO is the most important mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics, and, although some studies have shown its evident influence on summer precipitation in Mexico, its role in modulating the bimodal pattern of the summer precipitation cycle is still an open question. The spatio-temporal variability of summer precipitation in Mexico is analyzed through composite analysis according to the phases of the MJO, using the very high resolution CHIRPS precipitation data base and gridded data from the CFSR reanalysis to analyzing the MJO influence on the atmospheric circulation over Mexico and its adjacent basins. In general, during MJO phases 8-2 (4-6) rainfall is above-normal (below-normal), although, in some cases, the summer rainfall patterns during the same phase present considerable differences. The atmospheric circulation shows low (high) troposphere southwesterly (northeasterly) wind anomalies in southern Mexico under wetter conditions compared with climatological patterns, while the inverse pattern is observed under drier conditions. Composite anomalies of several variables also agreed well with those rainfall anomalies. Finally, a MJO complete cycle that reinforces (weakens) the bimodal pattern of summer rainfall in Mexico was found.

  12. Seasonal precipitation patterns along pathways of South American low-level jets and aerial rivers (United States)

    Poveda, Germán.; Jaramillo, Liliana; Vallejo, Luisa F.


    We study the seasonal dynamics of the eastern Pacific (CHOCO) and Caribbean low-level jets (LLJ), and aerial rivers (AR) acting on tropical and subtropical South America. Using the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979-2012), we show that the convergence of both LLJs over the eastern Pacific-western Colombia contributes to the explanation of the region's world-record rainfall. Diverse variables involved in the transport and storage of moisture permit the identification of an AR over northern South America involving a midtropospheric easterly jet that connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans across the Andes, with stronger activity in April to August. Other major seasonal AR pathways constitute part of a large gyre originating over the tropical North Atlantic, veering to the southeast over the eastern Andes and reaching regions of northern Argentina and southeastern Brazil. We illustrate the distribution of average seasonal precipitation along the LLJs and AR pathways with data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (1998-2011), combined with considerations of CAPE, topography, and land cover. In addition, the theory of the biotic pump of atmospheric moisture (BiPAM) is tested at seasonal time scales, and found to hold in 8 out of 12 ARs, and 22 out of 32 forest-covered tracks (64% in distance) along the ARs. Deviations from BiPAM's predictions of rainfall distribution are explained by the effects of topography, orography, and land cover types different from forests. Our results lend a strong observational support to the BiPAM theory at seasonal time scales over South American forested flat lands.

  13. Historical and projected trends in temperature and precipitation extremes in Australia in observations and CMIP5


    Alexander, Lisa V.; Arblaster, Julie M.


    This study expands previous work on climate extremes in Australia by investigating the simulation of a large number of extremes indices in the CMIP5 multi-model dataset and comparing them to multiple observational datasets over a century of observed data using consistent methods. We calculate 24 indices representing extremes of temperature and precipitation from 1911 to 2010 over Australia and show that there have been significant observed trends in temperature extremes associated with warmin...

  14. Soil respiration patterns and rates at three Taiwanese forest plantations: dependence on elevation, temperature, precipitation, and litterfall. (United States)

    Huang, Yu-Hsuan; Hung, Chih-Yu; Lin, I-Rhy; Kume, Tomonori; Menyailo, Oleg V; Cheng, Chih-Hsin


    Soil respiration contributes to a large quantity of carbon emissions in the forest ecosystem. In this study, the soil respiration rates at three Taiwanese forest plantations (two lowland and one mid-elevation) were investigated. We aimed to determine how soil respiration varies between lowland and mid-elevation forest plantations and identify the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors affecting soil respiration. The results showed that the temporal patterns of soil respiration rates were mainly influenced by soil temperature and soil water content, and a combined soil temperature and soil water content model explained 54-80% of the variation. However, these two factors affected soil respiration differently. Soil temperature positively contributed to soil respiration, but a bidirectional relationship between soil respiration and soil water content was revealed. Higher soil moisture content resulted in higher soil respiration rates at the lowland plantations but led to adverse effects at the mid-elevation plantation. The annual soil respiration rates were estimated as 14.3-20.0 Mg C ha -1  year -1 at the lowland plantations and 7.0-12.2 Mg C ha -1  year -1 at the mid-elevation plantation. When assembled with the findings of previous studies, the annual soil respiration rates increased with the mean annual temperature and litterfall but decreased with elevation and the mean annual precipitation. A conceptual model of the biotic and abiotic factors affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of the soil respiration rate was developed. Three determinant factors were proposed: (i) elevation, (ii) stand characteristics, and (iii) soil temperature and soil moisture. The results indicated that changes in temperature and precipitation significantly affect soil respiration. Because of the high variability of soil respiration, more studies and data syntheses are required to accurately predict soil respiration in Taiwanese forests.

  15. Temporal and Spatial Pattern of Changes of Extreme Precipitation in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin (YRB) during 1960 to 2012 (United States)

    Wu, Y.; Wu, S.; Wen, J.; Xu, M.; Tan, J.


    The Yangtze River is the longest river in China, with its river basin covering an area of 1.8 million sq km, encompassing about one fifth of China's total territory, one third of the nation's total population, and one quarter of its total arable land. Flooding resulted from extreme precipitation has always been a major problem for the middle and lower part of the YRB, particularly during the monsoon season of eastern China from May to August. Meanwhile, the relatively dense population and large cities in this region make the floods more deadly and costly. In this study we aim to establish the temporal and spatial patterns of changes in extreme precipitation in the middle and lower YRB using daily precipitation data from 71 stations in the area from 1960 to 2012. It is hoped that this study will provide useful information for better flood control. In this study, we defined and examined three major indices. Extreme precipitation frequency is defined as number of days per year with precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile for the base period of 1961 - 1990. Extreme precipitation amount is defined as the total amount of precipitation from these days. Extreme precipitation intensity is defined as the amount divided by frequency. We used non-parametric Thiel-Sen method to estimate the rate of change at each station, and Mann-Kendall test for the significance of the trend. Using Thiessen polygons, we also calculated the area-weighted mean of station trends to get the total trend for the entire study area. Abrupt changes in the time series was detected by using Mann-Kendall test and the Moving-t test methods. Our results show that there is an increasing trend of for the frequency, amount, and intensity of extreme precipitation in the study region. Of the three indicators, the extreme precipitation amount increased most, and its abrupt change point happened in1987. Between the period before and after 1987, the mean annual amount, intensity and frequency of extreme

  16. The influence of large-scale climatic patterns on precipitation, temperature, and discharge in Czech river basins

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šípek, Václav


    Roč. 61, č. 4 (2013), s. 278-285 ISSN 0042-790X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300600901 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : macro-scale climatic patterns * cidlina river * Blanice river * hydrometeorology Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 1.231, year: 2013

  17. Atmospheric Circulation Patterns over East Asia and Their Connection with Summer Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in Eastern China during 1961-2013 (United States)

    Li, Shuping; Hou, Wei; Feng, Guolin


    Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Chinese observational data during 1961-2013, atmospheric circulation patterns over East Asia in summer and their connection with precipitation and surface air temperature in eastern China as well as associated external forcing are investigated. Three patterns of the atmospheric circulation are identified, all with quasi-barotropic structures: (1) the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) pattern, (2) the Baikal Lake/Okhotsk Sea (BLOS) pattern, and (3) the eastern China/northern Okhotsk Sea (ECNOS) pattern. The positive EAP pattern significantly increases precipitation over the Yangtze River valley and favors cooling north of the Yangtze River and warming south of the Yangtze River in summer. The warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean suppress convection over the northwestern subtropical Pacific through the Ekman divergence induced by a Kelvin wave and excite the EAP pattern. The positive BLOS pattern is associated with below-average precipitation south of the Yangtze River and robust cooling over northeastern China. This pattern is triggered by anomalous spring sea ice concentration in the northern Barents Sea. The anomalous sea ice concentration contributes to a Rossby wave activity flux originating from the Greenland Sea, which propagates eastward to North Pacific. The positive ECNOS pattern leads to below-average precipitation and significant warming over northeastern China in summer. The reduced soil moisture associated with the earlier spring snowmelt enhances surface warming over Mongolia and northeastern China and the later spring snowmelt leads to surface cooling over Far East in summer, both of which are responsible for the formation of the ECNOS pattern.

  18. Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns (United States)

    Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew


    In recent years, because the frequency and severity of floods have increased across Canada, it is important to understand the characteristics of Canadian heavy precipitation. Long-term precipitation data of 463 gauging stations of Canada were analyzed using non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), Poisson distribution and generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Time-varying covariates that represent large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NP) were incorporated to parameters of GEV, Poisson and GP distributions. Results show that GEV distributions tend to under-estimate annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP) of western and eastern coastal regions of Canada, compared to GP distributions. Poisson regressions show that temporal clusters of heavy precipitation events in Canada are related to large-scale climate patterns. By modeling AMP time series with non-stationary GEV and heavy precipitation with non-stationary GP distributions, it is evident that AMP and heavy precipitation of Canada show strong non-stationarities (abrupt and slowly varying changes) likely because of the influence of large-scale climate patterns. AMP in southwestern coastal regions, southern Canadian Prairies and the Great Lakes tend to be higher in El Niño than in La Niña years, while AMP of other regions of Canada tends to be lower in El Niño than in La Niña years. The influence of ENSO on heavy precipitation was spatially consistent but stronger than on AMP. The effect of PDO, NAO and NP on extreme precipitation is also statistically significant at some stations across Canada.

  19. Characteristic precipitation patterns of El Niño/La Niña in time-variable gravity fields by GRACE


    Morishita, Yu; Heki, Kosuke


    El Niño and La Niña are known to bring about characteristic patterns of anomalous precipitation in various regions of the world. We extracted temporary and regional gravity changes from monthly gravity fields recovered by the GRACE satellites, and converted them to the changes in surface mass, possibly ground or subsurface water in land area. Such mass changes in the 2006-2007 El Niño and 2005-2006 La Niña episodes agreed well with precipitation anomaly patterns inferred from meteorological r...

  20. Practice Patterns and Projections for the US Pediatric Otolaryngology Workforce. (United States)

    Bell, Jason R; Ruch-Ross, Holly; Hotaling, Andrew J


    This study represents up-to-date information on the current status of and future projections for the pediatric otolaryngology workforce. To provide an update on the practice patterns of and projections for the US pediatric otolaryngology workforce. An online survey was sent to all 172 members of the American Academy of Pediatrics Section on Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery and fielded from May 29, 2014, to September 17, 2014. Current status of and perceived trends in the pediatric otolaryngology workforce. Eighty-four (48.8%) of the 172 members responded to the survey. Not all respondents answered all questions, and so totals and percentages might not reflect a total of 84 for any given response. The demographics and practice characteristics of the responding pediatric otolaryngologists were similar to those noted in a 1997 workforce survey. Fifty-four percent of respondents (n = 38) planned to continue full-time work over the next 5 years, and 47% (n = 31) believed that the number of patients in their practice was increasing. The proportion of those who believed that the need for pediatric otolaryngologists in their community was increasing (31%; n = 21) or decreasing (13%; n = 9) remained relatively constant from the 1997 survey (34% and 12%, respectively). Forty-nine percent (n = 35) reported believing that the number of pediatric otolaryngologists being trained was appropriate and that the need in their community was stable. Eighty-three percent (n = 55) reported believing that employment opportunities for pediatric otolaryngologists in the United States would be plentiful in the near future. The overall state of the pediatric otolaryngology workforce appears stable. The perceived current and future needs for pediatric otolaryngologists appear to be met by the current number of trainees. Employment opportunities appear promising for future pediatric otolaryngologists based on our respondents' opinions. This represents up

  1. Uncertainty in projected point precipitation extremes for hydrological impact analysis of climate change (United States)

    Van Uytven, Els; Willems, Patrick


    Current trends in the hydro-meteorological variables indicate the potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes. Therefore, they trigger an increased importance climate adaptation strategies in water management. The impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological and hydrological extremes is, however, highly uncertain. This is due to uncertainties introduced by the climate models, the internal variability inherent to the climate system, the greenhouse gas scenarios and the statistical downscaling methods. In view of the need to define sustainable climate adaptation strategies, there is a need to assess these uncertainties. This is commonly done by means of ensemble approaches. Because more and more climate models and statistical downscaling methods become available, there is a need to facilitate the climate impact and uncertainty analysis. A Climate Perturbation Tool has been developed for that purpose, which combines a set of statistical downscaling methods including weather typing, weather generator, transfer function and advanced perturbation based approaches. By use of an interactive interface, climate impact modelers can apply these statistical downscaling methods in a semi-automatic way to an ensemble of climate model runs. The tool is applicable to any region, but has been demonstrated so far to cases in Belgium, Suriname, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Time series representing future local-scale precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) conditions were obtained, starting from time series of historical observations. Uncertainties on the future meteorological conditions are represented in two different ways: through an ensemble of time series, and a reduced set of synthetic scenarios. The both aim to span the full uncertainty range as assessed from the ensemble of climate model runs and downscaling methods. For Belgium, for instance, use was made of 100-year time series of 10-minutes precipitation observations and daily

  2. Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble (United States)

    Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo; Zhou, Botao; Shi, Ying; Wu, Jie; Zhang, Yongxiang


    Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over mainland China are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed: TXx and TNn (the annual maximum and minimum of daily maximum and minimum surface temperature), RX5day (the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and CDD (maximum annual number of consecutive dry days). After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.

  3. Greenhouse gas scenario sensitivity and uncertainties in precipitation projections for central Belgium (United States)

    Van Uytven, E.; Willems, P.


    Climate change impact assessment on meteorological variables involves large uncertainties as a result of incomplete knowledge on the future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate model physics, next to the inherent internal variability of the climate system. Given that the alteration in greenhouse gas concentrations is the driver for the change, one expects the impacts to be highly dependent on the considered greenhouse gas scenario (GHS). In this study, we denote this behavior as GHS sensitivity. Due to the climate model related uncertainties, this sensitivity is, at local scale, not always that strong as expected. This paper aims to study the GHS sensitivity and its contributing role to climate scenarios for a case study in Belgium. An ensemble of 160 CMIP5 climate model runs is considered and climate change signals are studied for precipitation accumulation, daily precipitation intensities and wet day frequencies. This was done for the different seasons of the year and the scenario periods 2011-2040, 2031-2060, 2051-2081 and 2071-2100. By means of variance decomposition, the total variance in the climate change signals was separated in the contribution of the differences in GHSs and the other model-related uncertainty sources. These contributions were found dependent on the variable and season. Following the time of emergence concept, the GHS uncertainty contribution is found dependent on the time horizon and increases over time. For the most distinct time horizon (2071-2100), the climate model uncertainty accounts for the largest uncertainty contribution. The GHS differences explain up to 18% of the total variance in the climate change signals. The results point further at the importance of the climate model ensemble design, specifically the ensemble size and the combination of climate models, whereupon climate scenarios are based. The numerical noise, introduced at scales smaller than the skillful scale, e.g. at local scale, was not considered in this study.

  4. Precipitation thresholds and drought-induced tree die-off: insights from patterns of Pinus edulis mortality along an environmental stress gradient. (United States)

    Clifford, Michael J; Royer, Patrick D; Cobb, Neil S; Breshears, David D; Ford, Paulette L


    Recent regional tree die-off events appear to have been triggered by a combination of drought and heat - referred to as 'global-change-type drought'. To complement experiments focused on resolving mechanisms of drought-induced tree mortality, an evaluation of how patterns of tree die-off relate to highly spatially variable precipitation is needed. Here, we explore precipitation relationships with a die-off event of pinyon pine (Pinus edulis Engelm.) in southwestern North America during the 2002-2003 global-change-type drought. Pinyon die-off and its relationship with precipitation was quantified spatially along a precipitation gradient in north-central New Mexico with standard field plot measurements of die-off combined with canopy cover derived from normalized burn ratio (NBR) from Landsat imagery. Pinyon die-off patterns revealed threshold responses to precipitation (cumulative 2002-2003) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), with little to no mortality (< 10%) above 600 mm and below warm season VPD of c. 1.7 kPa. [Correction added after online publication 17 June 2013; in the preceding sentence, the word 'below' has been inserted.] Our results refine how precipitation patterns within a region influence pinyon die-off, revealing a precipitation and VPD threshold for tree mortality and its uncertainty band where other factors probably come into play - a response type that influences stand demography and landscape heterogeneity and is of general interest, yet has not been documented. © 2013 No claim to US Government works. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  5. Dietary patterns associated with colon and rectal cancer: Results from the Dietary Patterns and Cancer (DIETSCAN) Project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dixon, L.B.; Balder, H.F.; Virtanen, M.J.; Rashidkhani, B.; Männistö, S.; Krogh, V.; Brandt, P.A. van den; Hartman, A.M.; Pietinen, P.; Tan, F.; Virtamo, J.; Wolk, A.; Goldbohm, R.A.


    Background: An analysis of dietary patterns or combinations of foods may provide insight regarding the influence of diet on the risk of colon and rectal cancer. Objective: A primary aim of the Dietary Patterns and Cancer (DIETSCAN) Project was to develop and apply a common methodologic approach to

  6. The Impact of Global Warming on Precipitation Patterns in Ilorin and the Hydrological Balance of the Awun Basin (United States)

    Ayanshola, Ayanniyi; Olofintoye, Oluwatosin; Obadofin, Ebenezer


    This study presents the impact of global warming on precipitation patterns in Ilorin, Nigeria, and its implications on the hydrological balance of the Awun basin under the prevailing climate conditions. The study analyzes 39 years of rainfall and temperature data of relevant stations within the study areas. Simulated data from the Coupled Global Climate model for historical and future datasets were investigated under the A2 emission scenario. Statistical regression and a Mann-Kendall analysis were performed to determine the nature of the trends in the hydrological variables and their significance levels, while a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to estimate the water balance and derive the stream flow and yield of the Awun basin. The study revealed that while minimum and maximum temperatures in Ilorin are increasing, rainfall is generally decreasing. The assessment of the trends in the water balance parameters in the basin indicates that there is no improvement in the water yield as the population increases. This may result in major stresses to the water supply in the near future.

  7. Adaptive pixel-to-pixel projection intensity adjustment for measuring a shiny surface using orthogonal color fringe pattern projection (United States)

    Chen, Chao; Gao, Nan; Wang, Xiangjun; Zhang, Zonghua


    Three-dimensional (3D) shape measurement based on fringe pattern projection techniques has been commonly used in various fields. One of the remaining challenges in fringe pattern projection is that camera sensor saturation may occur if there is a large range of reflectivity variation across the surface that causes measurement errors. To overcome this problem, a novel fringe pattern projection method is proposed to avoid image saturation and maintain high-intensity modulation for measuring shiny surfaces by adaptively adjusting the pixel-to-pixel projection intensity according to the surface reflectivity. First, three sets of orthogonal color fringe patterns and a sequence of uniform gray-level patterns with different gray levels are projected onto a measured surface by a projector. The patterns are deformed with respect to the object surface and captured by a camera from a different viewpoint. Subsequently, the optimal projection intensity at each pixel is determined by fusing different gray levels and transforming the camera pixel coordinate system into the projector pixel coordinate system. Finally, the adapted fringe patterns are created and used for 3D shape measurement. Experimental results on a flat checkerboard and shiny objects demonstrate that the proposed method can measure shiny surfaces with high accuracy.

  8. Projection of Korean Probable Maximum Precipitation under Future Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okjeong Lee


    Full Text Available According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, air temperature and humidity of the future are expected to gradually increase over the current. In this study, future PMPs are estimated by using future dew point temperature projection data which are obtained from RCM data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. First, bias included in future dew point temperature projection data which is provided on a daily basis is corrected through a quantile-mapping method. Next, using a scale-invariance technique, 12-hour duration 100-year return period dew point temperatures which are essential input data for PMPs estimation are estimated from bias-corrected future dew point temperature data. After estimating future PMPs, it can be shown that PMPs in all future climate change scenarios (AR5 RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 are very likely to increase.

  9. Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections. (United States)

    Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L


    The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. American Crystallographic Association Project: numerical ratings of powder diffraction patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, G.S.; Snyder, R.L.


    At present, nearly 30,000 powder diffraction patterns are available as references. It is proposed that the patterns in this file as well as new patterns submitted for publication be given quantitative quality factors. A simple-to-use figure of merit, F/sub N/, covering both accuracy of d-values and completeness of a pattern was derived. This figure of merit provides the user with a means of rapid evaluation of powder patterns in much the same way that the R-factor does for single-crystal structure determinations. The present F/sub N/ ranking scheme is shown to be superior to de Wolff's M 20 ranking scheme. It is recommended that the latter be discontinued. Guidelines are given on the use and implementation of F/sub N/ rating of powder diffraction patterns

  11. Two millennia of torrential activity reconstructed from alpine lake sediments: towards regional patterns of extreme precipitation changes (United States)

    Wilhelm, B.; Arnaud, F.; Giguet-Covex, C.; Sabatier, P.; Crouzet, C.; Delannoy, J. J.


    In mountain areas extreme precipitation events trigger torrential floods, characterized by a sudden and intense rise of discharge causing large human and economic losses. Their frequency and/or intensity are expected to increase in the context of global warming. However, the relationship between such events and climate changes remains difficult to assess. Long-term geological records of intense events could enable to extend documented records beyond the observational data for a better understanding of local to regional flood hazard patterns in relation to past climatic changes and hence improving predictive models. In this context, lake sediment records appear a relevant archive as they are continuous records in which the identification of high-energy sediment layers allows to reconstruct flood calendar. In addition, the flood intensity can be reconstructed from the coarse fraction of each flood layer. Frequency and intensity of past torrential floods were thus reconstructed from four high-elevation lake records of the French Alps, in the framework of Pygmalion research program. Studied sites were selected along a north-south transect over this region to investigate the flooding responses to different climatic influences (westerlies in the north and Mediterranean influences in the south). High-resolution geochemical and sedimentological analyses were undertaken for an exhaustive identification of flood layers and several dating methods (short-lived radionuclides, 14C, correlation with historic events, paleomagnetism) were combined to reduce age uncertainties as much as possible. Over the entire French Alps, the torrential-flood frequency increases at a secular timescale during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1300-1900 AD). This increase seems in agreement with a regional high wetness, already described in the literature, possibly related to an increase in cyclonic activity. Superimposed to this secular trend, a pluri-decadal variability appears at

  12. Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China (United States)

    Yang, Jun; Pei, Ying; Zhang, Yanwei; Ge, Quansheng


    This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.

  13. Building Project Management Communities: Exploring the Contribution of Patterns Supported by Web 2.0 Technologies (United States)

    Burd, Elizabeth L.; Hatch, Andrew; Ashurst, Colin; Jessop, Alan


    This article describes an approach whereby patterns are used to describe management issues and solutions to be used during the project management of team-based software development. The work describes how web 2.0 technologies have been employed to support the use and development of such patterns. To evaluate the success of patterns and the…

  14. Adaptive fringe-pattern projection for image saturation avoidance in 3D surface-shape measurement. (United States)

    Li, Dong; Kofman, Jonathan


    In fringe-projection 3D surface-shape measurement, image saturation results in incorrect intensities in captured images of fringe patterns, leading to phase and measurement errors. An adaptive fringe-pattern projection (AFPP) method was developed to adapt the maximum input gray level in projected fringe patterns to the local reflectivity of an object surface being measured. The AFPP method demonstrated improved 3D measurement accuracy by avoiding image saturation in highly-reflective surface regions while maintaining high intensity modulation across the entire surface. The AFPP method can avoid image saturation and handle varying surface reflectivity, using only two prior rounds of fringe-pattern projection and image capture to generate the adapted fringe patterns.

  15. Changing pattern of landslide risk in Europe - The SafeLand project (United States)

    Nadim, F.; Kalsnes, B.


    The need to protect people and property with a changing pattern of landslide hazard and risk caused by climate change and changes in demography, and the reality for societies in Europe to live with the risk associated with natural hazards, were the motives for the project SafeLand: "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies." SafeLand is a large, integrating research project under the European Commission's 7th Framework Programme (FP7). The project started on 1 May 2009 and will end on 30 April 2012. It involves 27 partners from 12 European countries, and has international collaborators and advisers from China, India, USA, Japan and Hong Kong. SafeLand also involves 25 End-Users from 11 countries. SafeLand is coordinated by the International Centre for Geohazards (ICG) at Norwegian Geotechnical Institute in Norway. Further information on the SafeLand project can be found at its web site Main results achieved in SafeLand include: - Various guidelines related to landslide triggering processes and run-out modelling. - Development and testing of several empirical methods for predicting the characteristics of threshold rainfall events for triggering of precipitation-induced landslides, and development of an empirical model for assessing the changes in landslide frequency (hazard) as a function of changes in the demography and population density. - Guideline for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment and zoning. - New methodologies for physical and societal vulnerability assessment. - Identification of landslide hazard and risk hotspots for Europe. The results show clearly where areas with the largest landslide risk are located in Europe and the objective approach allows a ranking of the countries by exposed area and population. - Different regional and local climate model simulations over selected regions of Europe at spatial resolutions of 10x10 km and 2.8x2.8 km

  16. Patterns of LGM precipitation in the U.S. Rocky Mountains: results from regional application of a glacier mass/energy balance and flow model (United States)

    Leonard, E. M.; Laabs, B. J.; Refsnider, K. A.; Plummer, M. A.; Jacobsen, R. E.; Wollenberg, J. A.


    region supports the results of GCM simulations of western U.S. precipitation distribution during the LGM, and suggests that this approach provides a practical means of testing such hypotheses about large-scale paleoclimate patterns. Finally, we note that most GCM results indicate greater LGM temperature depression in the northern and eastern portions of the study region than in its southern and western portions - which would necessitate LGM precipitation differences even greater than those determined based on an assumed uniform temperature depression.

  17. Quantification of Linkages between Large-Scale Climate Patterns and Annual Precipitation for the Colorado River Basin (United States)

    Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.


    Precipitation is regarded as one of the key variables driving various hydrologic processes and the future precipitation information can be useful to better understand the long-term climate dynamics. In this paper, a simple, robust, and parsimonious precipitation forecast model, Support Vector Machine (SVM) is proposed which uses large-scale climate information and predict annual precipitation 1-year in advance. SVM’s are a novel class of neural networks (NNs) which are based on the statistical learning theory. The SVM’s has three main advantages over the traditional NNs: 1) better generalization ability, 2) the architecture and weights of SVM’s are guaranteed to be unique and globally optimum, and 3) SVM’s are trained more rapidly than the corresponding NN. With these advantages, an application of SVM incorporating large-scale climate information is developed and applied to seventeen climate divisions encompassing the Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) for a period of 1900-2007 are used to generate annual precipitation estimates with 1-year lead time. The results from the present study indicate that long-term precipitation predictions for the Upper Colorado River Basin can be successfully obtained using a combination of NAO and ENSO indices whereas coupling PDO and AMO results in improved precipitation predictions for the Lower Colorado River Basin. Precipitation predictions from the SVM model are found to be better when compared with the predictions obtained from feed-forward back propagation Artificial Neural Network and Multivariate Linear Regression models. The overall results of this study revealed that the annual precipitation of the Colorado River Basin was significantly influenced by oceanic-atmospheric oscillations and the proposed SVM

  18. Precipitation composition and wet deposition temporal pattern in Central Serbia for the period from 1998 to 2004. (United States)

    Golobocanin, D; Zujić, A; Milenković, A; Miljević, N


    Bulk samples collected on a daily basis at three principal meteorological stations in central Serbia were analyzed on chloride (Cl(-)), nitrate (NO(3)(-)), sulfate (SO(4)(2-)), sodium (Na(+)), ammonium (NH(4)(+)), potassium (K(+)), calcium (Ca(2+)), and magnesium (Mg(2+)) in addition to precipitation amount, pH and conductivity measurements over the period 1998-2004. The data were subjected to variety of analyses (linear regression, principal component analysis, time series analysis) to characterize precipitation chemistry in the study area. The most abundant ion was SO(2-)(4) with annual volume weighted mean concentration of 242 microeq L(-1). Neutralization of precipitation acidity occurs both as a result of the dissolution of alkaline compounds containing Ca(2+), Mg(2+), and K(+) as well as the absorption of ammonia. The ratio of SO(4)(2-)/NO(3)(-) was above 5, which indicated that the combustion process of low-grade domestic lignite for electricity generation from coal-fired thermal power plants was the main source of pollution in the investigated area. A considerable mean annual bulk wet deposition of SO(4)-S determined by precipitation amount and concentrations of sulfate in the precipitation was calculated to be 12-35 kg ha(-1).

  19. The impact of ageing and changing utilization patterns on future cardiovascular drug expenditure: a pharmacoepidemiological projection approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kildemoes, Helle Wallach; Andersen, Morten; Støvring, Henrik


    To develop a method for projecting the impact of ageing and changing drug utilization patterns on future drug expenditure.......To develop a method for projecting the impact of ageing and changing drug utilization patterns on future drug expenditure....

  20. Central European projects could alter oil movement patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deffarges, E.H.; Howard, D.J.; Treat, J.E.


    This paper reports that several oil transportation projects are set to transform the flows of oil in Central Europe, with potentially important implications for crude oil and product prices in the region. These projects are spurred by the desires of the newly opened economies of Central Europe to diversify their sources of oil supplies away from the U.S.S.R. and by expectations of economic growth in this region. Today, Central European countries (Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Romania, and Bulgaria) rely heavily on Soviet crude supplies. Of the 1.7 million b/d of crude oil consumed by these six countries, about 55% is imported from the U.S.S.R. This is down significantly from the more than 75% import dependence in the mid-1980s. This dependency on U.S.S.R. crude - for countries that either have a history of indigenous production (Romania) or access to Middle East or North African supplies (Yugoslavia) - testifies to more than 40 years of centrally planned economics in which Moscow provided the energy and raw materials and Central European countries delivered finished goods. Since the end of World War II, the pipeline flow of crude oil and products from Western to Central Europe has been almost nonexistent. In fact, the Western European crude and product pipeline network itself is a rather poorly integrated system, with only limited interconnections between northern and southern networks and no real competition across the major flow routes

  1. EMSP Project 70070: Reactivity of Primary Soil Minerals and Secondary Precipitates Beneath Leaking Hanford Waste Tanks - Final Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagy, Kathryn L.


    Since the late 1950s, leaks from 67 single-shell tanks at the Hanford Site have released about 1 million curies to the underlying sediments. The radioactive material was contained in water-based solutions generally characterized as having high pH values (basic solutions), high nitrate and nitrite concentrations, and high aluminum concentrations. The solutions were also hot, in some cases at or near boiling, as well as complex and highly variable in composition reflecting solutions obtained from multiple methods of reprocessing spent nuclear fuel. In order to understand the observed and probable distribution of radionuclides in the ground at Hanford, major reactions that likely occurred between the leaked fluids and the sediment minerals were investigated in laboratory experiments simulating environmental conditions. Reactions involving the dissolution of quartz and biotite and the simultaneous formation of new minerals were quantified at controlled pH values and temperature. Result s show that the dissolution of quartz and formation of new zeolite-like minerals could have altered the flow path of ground water and contaminant plumes and provided an uptake mechanism for positively-charged soluble radionuclides, such as cesium. The dissolution of biotite, a layered-iron-aluminum-silicate mineral, provided iron in a reduced form that could have reacted with negatively-charged soluble chromium, a toxic component of the wastes, to cause its reduction and precipitation as a new reduced-chromium mineral. The quantity of iron released in the experiments is sufficient to explain observations of reductions in dissolved chromium concentration in a plume beneath one Hanford tank. Fundamental data obtained in the project are the rates of the reactions at variable temperatures and pHs. Fundamental data were also obtained on aspects of the surface reactivity of clay or layered-silicate minerals, a small proportion of the total mass of the sediment minerals, but a large proportion

  2. Spatial-temporal patterns of retinal waves underlying activity-dependent refinement of retinofugal projections. (United States)

    Stafford, Ben K; Sher, Alexander; Litke, Alan M; Feldheim, David A


    During development, retinal axons project coarsely within their visual targets before refining to form organized synaptic connections. Spontaneous retinal activity, in the form of acetylcholine-driven retinal waves, is proposed to be necessary for establishing these projection patterns. In particular, both axonal terminations of retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) and the size of receptive fields of target neurons are larger in mice that lack the beta2 subunit of the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (beta2KO). Here, using a large-scale, high-density multielectrode array to record activity from hundreds of RGCs simultaneously, we present analysis of early postnatal retinal activity from both wild-type (WT) and beta2KO retinas. We find that beta2KO retinas have correlated patterns of activity, but many aspects of these patterns differ from those of WT retina. Quantitative analysis suggests that wave directionality, coupled with short-range correlated bursting patterns of RGCs, work together to refine retinofugal projections.

  3. Human amplified changes in precipitation-runoff patterns in large river basins of the Midwestern United States (United States)

    Kelly, Sara A.; Takbiri, Zeinab; Belmont, Patrick; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi


    Complete transformations of land cover from prairie, wetlands, and hardwood forests to row crop agriculture and urban centers are thought to have caused profound changes in hydrology in the Upper Midwestern US since the 1800s. In this study, we investigate four large (23 000-69 000 km2) Midwest river basins that span climate and land use gradients to understand how climate and agricultural drainage have influenced basin hydrology over the last 79 years. We use daily, monthly, and annual flow metrics to document streamflow changes and discuss those changes in the context of precipitation and land use changes. Since 1935, flow, precipitation, artificial drainage extent, and corn and soybean acreage have increased across the region. In extensively drained basins, we observe 2 to 4 fold increases in low flows and 1.5 to 3 fold increases in high and extreme flows. Using a water budget, we determined that the storage term has decreased in intensively drained and cultivated basins by 30-200 % since 1975, but increased by roughly 30 % in the less agricultural basin. Storage has generally decreased during spring and summer months and increased during fall and winter months in all watersheds. Thus, the loss of storage and enhanced hydrologic connectivity and efficiency imparted by artificial agricultural drainage appear to have amplified the streamflow response to precipitation increases in the Midwest. Future increases in precipitation are likely to further intensify drainage practices and increase streamflows. Increased streamflow has implications for flood risk, channel adjustment, and sediment and nutrient transport and presents unique challenges for agriculture and water resource management in the Midwest. Better documentation of existing and future drain tile and ditch installation is needed to further understand the role of climate versus drainage across multiple spatial and temporal scales.

  4. Seasonal cycle of precipitation over major river basins in South and Southeast Asia: A review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections (United States)

    Lucarini, Valerio


    We review the skill of thirty coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in terms of reproducing properties of the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the major river basins of South and Southeast Asia (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong) for the historical period (1961-2000). We also present how these models represent the impact of climate change by the end of century (2061-2100) under the extreme scenario RCP8.5. First, we assess the models' ability to reproduce the observed timings of the monsoon onset and the rate of rapid fractional accumulation (RFA) slope — a measure of seasonality within the active monsoon period. Secondly, we apply a threshold-independent seasonality index (SI) — a multiplicative measure of precipitation (P) and extent of its concentration relative to uniform distribution (relative entropy — RE). We apply SI distinctly over the monsoonal precipitation regime (MPR), westerly precipitation regime (WPR) and annual precipitation. For the present climate, neither any single model nor the multi-model mean performs best in all chosen metrics. Models show overall a modest skill in suggesting right timings of the monsoon onset while the RFA slope is generally underestimated. One third of the models fail to capture the monsoon signal over the Indus basin. Mostly, the estimates for SI during WPR are higher than observed for all basins. When looking at MPR, the models typically simulate an SI higher (lower) than observed for the Ganges and Brahmaputra (Indus and Mekong) basins, following the pattern of overestimation (underestimation) of precipitation. Most of the models are biased negative (positive) for RE estimates over the Brahmaputra and Mekong (Indus and Ganges) basins, implying the extent of precipitation concentration for MPR and number of dry days within WPR lower (higher) than observed for these basins. Such skill of the CMIP5 models in representing the present-day monsoonal

  5. Enhanced precipitation variability decreases grass- and increases shrub-productivity (United States)

    Gherardi, Laureano A.; Sala, Osvaldo E.


    Although projections of precipitation change indicate increases in variability, most studies of impacts of climate change on ecosystems focused on effects of changes in amount of precipitation, overlooking precipitation variability effects, especially at the interannual scale. Here, we present results from a 6-y field experiment, where we applied sequences of wet and dry years, increasing interannual precipitation coefficient of variation while maintaining a precipitation amount constant. Increased precipitation variability significantly reduced ecosystem primary production. Dominant plant-functional types showed opposite responses: perennial-grass productivity decreased by 81%, whereas shrub productivity increased by 67%. This pattern was explained by different nonlinear responses to precipitation. Grass productivity presented a saturating response to precipitation where dry years had a larger negative effect than the positive effects of wet years. In contrast, shrubs showed an increasing response to precipitation that resulted in an increase in average productivity with increasing precipitation variability. In addition, the effects of precipitation variation increased through time. We argue that the differential responses of grasses and shrubs to precipitation variability and the amplification of this phenomenon through time result from contrasting root distributions of grasses and shrubs and competitive interactions among plant types, confirmed by structural equation analysis. Under drought conditions, grasses reduce their abundance and their ability to absorb water that then is transferred to deep soil layers that are exclusively explored by shrubs. Our work addresses an understudied dimension of climate change that might lead to widespread shrub encroachment reducing the provisioning of ecosystem services to society. PMID:26417095

  6. Bias correction of daily precipitation projected by the CORDEX-Africa ensemble for a sparsely gauged region in West Africa with regionalized distribution parameters (United States)

    Lorenz, Manuel; Bliefernicht, Jan; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald


    Reliable estimates of future climatic conditions are indispensable for the sustainable planning of agricultural activities in West Africa. Precipitation time series of regional climate models (RCMs) typically exhibit a bias in the distribution of both rainfall intensities and wet day frequencies. Furthermore, the annual and monthly sums of precipitation may remarkably vary from the observations in this region. As West Africa experiences a distinct rainy season, sowing dates are oftentimes planned based on the beginning of this rainfall period. A biased representation of the annual cycle of precipitation in the uncorrected RCMs can therefore lead to crop failure. The precipitation ensemble, obtained from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment CORDEX-Africa, was bias-corrected for the study region in West Africa (extending approximately 343,358 km2) which covers large parts of Burkina Faso, Ghana and Benin. In oder to debias the RCM precipitation simulations, a Quantile-Mapping method was applied to the historical period 1950-2005. For the RCM future projections (2006-2100), the Double-Quantile-Mapping procedure was chosen. This method makes use of the shift in the distribution function of the future precipitation values which allows to incorporate the climate change signal of the RCM projections into the bias correction. As large areas of the study region are ungauged, the assignment of the information from the nearest station to the ungauged location would lead to sharp changes in the estimated statistics from one location to another. Thus, the distribution parameters needed for the Quantile-Mapping were estimated by Kriging the distribution parameters of the available measurement stations. This way it is possible to obtain reasonable estimates of the expected distribution of precipitation at ungauged locations. The presentation will illustrate some aspects and trade-offs in the distribution parameter interpolation as well as an analysis of the uncertainties of the

  7. Stable isotope (2H, 17O, 18O) and hydro chemical patterns of precipitation collected in weekly resolution at Hannover, Germany (United States)

    Koeniger, Paul; Himmelsbach, Thomas


    Long-term observations of stable isotopes (δ18O and δ2H) in precipitation were initiated in May 2008 at the Federal Institute of Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) in Hannover, Germany. In 2014 all precipitation samples were re-analyzed because a purchase of a new laser spectrometer (Picarro L2140-i) now allowed measurements of δ17O and a calculation of the 17O-excess parameter. Starting in October 2015 a routine analysis of hydro chemical parameters was added whenever enough sample aliquot was available (major ions, trace elements). A discussion of the stable isotope data of the seven year series of weekly precipitation samples (n = 370) will be presented. Beneath general patterns (seasonality and trends) we also focus on importance of amount weighing procedures, corrections for minor rain amounts, aspects of sample storage and re-analyzes, as well as impacts through changes in analytical equipment (IRMS, CRD spectroscopy) which is visible from the data. For stable isotopes a Thermo Fisher delta plus IRMS (Gasbench and H-Device) was used until 2011 and from 2012 on a Picarro L2120-i water vapor analyzer with long-term accuracies for quality check samples better than 0.2‰ and 0.8‰ for δ18O and δ2H, respectively.

  8. [Principles and methodology for ecological rehabilitation and security pattern design in key project construction]. (United States)

    Chen, Li-Ding; Lu, Yi-He; Tian, Hui-Ying; Shi, Qian


    Global ecological security becomes increasingly important with the intensive human activities. The function of ecological security is influenced by human activities, and in return, the efficiency of human activities will also be affected by the patterns of regional ecological security. Since the 1990s, China has initiated the construction of key projects "Yangtze Three Gorges Dam", "Qinghai-Tibet Railway", "West-to-East Gas Pipeline", "West-to-East Electricity Transmission" and "South-to-North Water Transfer" , etc. The interaction between these projects and regional ecological security has particularly attracted the attention of Chinese government. It is not only important for the regional environmental protection, but also of significance for the smoothly implementation of various projects aimed to develop an ecological rehabilitation system and to design a regional ecological security pattern. This paper made a systematic analysis on the types and characteristics of key project construction and their effects on the environment, and on the basis of this, brought forward the basic principles and methodology for ecological rehabilitation and security pattern design in this construction. It was considered that the following issues should be addressed in the implementation of a key project: 1) analysis and evaluation of current regional ecological environment, 2) evaluation of anthropogenic disturbances and their ecological risk, 3) regional ecological rehabilitation and security pattern design, 4) scenario analysis of environmental benefits of regional ecological security pattern, 5) re-optimization of regional ecological system framework, and 6) establishment of regional ecosystem management plan.

  9. Spatial patterns and temporal trends in mercury concentrations, precipitation depths, and mercury wet deposition in the North American Great Lakes region, 2002–2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risch, Martin R.; Gay, David A.; Fowler, Kathleen K.; Keeler, Gerard J.; Backus, Sean M.; Blanchard, Pierrette; Barres, James A.; Dvonch, J. Timothy


    Annual and weekly mercury (Hg) concentrations, precipitation depths, and Hg wet deposition in the Great Lakes region were analyzed by using data from 5 monitoring networks in the USA and Canada for a 2002–2008 study period. High-resolution maps of calculated annual data, 7-year mean data, and net interannual change for the study period were prepared to assess spatial patterns. Areas with 7-year mean annual Hg concentrations higher than the 12 ng per liter water-quality criterion were mapped in 4 states. Temporal trends in measured weekly data were determined statistically. Monitoring sites with significant 7-year trends in weekly Hg wet deposition were spatially separated and were not sites with trends in weekly Hg concentration. During 2002–2008, Hg wet deposition was found to be unchanged in the Great Lakes region and its subregions. Any small decreases in Hg concentration apparently were offset by increases in precipitation. - Highlights: ► Data from 5 Hg and precipitation networks in the USA and Canada were combined for the first time. ► High-resolution maps and statistical trends tests were used for spatial and temporal data analysis. ► Some 7-year mean annual Hg concentrations exceeded a 12 ng per liter water-quality criterion. ► Small, localized decreases in Hg concentration were offset by increases in precipitation. ► Hg wet deposition was unchanged in the Great Lakes region and its subregions during 2002–2008. - Analysis of monitoring data from 5 networks in the USA and Canada determined that mercury wet deposition was unchanged in the North American Great Lakes region during 2002–2008.

  10. Soil biogeochemical and fungal patterns across a precipitation gradient in the lowland tropical rainforests of French Guiana (United States)

    Soong, J.; Verbruggen, E.; Janssens, I.


    The Guyafor network contains over 12 pristine tropical rainforest long-term research sites throughout French Guiana, with a focus on vegetation and environmental monitoring at regular intervals. However, biogeochemical and belowground insights are needed to complete the picture of ecosystem functioning in these lowland tropical rainforests, which are critical to Earth's water and energy balance. Improving our biogeochemical understanding of these ecosystems is needed to improve Earth System Models, which poorly represent tropical systems. In July 2015 we sampled soils and litter from 12 of the Guyafor permanent plots in French Guiana spanning a mean annual precipitation gradient of over 2000 mm per year. We measured soil texture, pH, C, N and available P stocks in the top 30 cm, and fungal biodiversity using ITS DNA sequencing and characterized soil organic matter (SOM) C, N and P distribution among physically defined SOM fractions. We also measured litter layer standing stocks and CNP stoichiometry. We found significant stocks of SOM in the top 30 cm of the soil varying by a factor of 4 in the top 30 cm of soil with a negative correlation of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and soil C and N with available P. Available P was also a strong predictor of fungal community composition. Furthermore there is evidence for precipitation and mineralogical influences on leaf litter and SOM dynamics highlighting the importance of heterogeneity in tropical soil substrates and sub-climates in better understanding the biogeochemistry of tropical ecosystems.

  11. Evaluation of effects of changes in canal management and precipitation patterns on salinity in Biscayne Bay, Florida, using an integrated surface-water/groundwater model (United States)

    Lohmann, Melinda A.; Swain, Eric D.; Wang, John D.; Dixon, Joann


    Biscayne National Park, located in Biscayne Bay in southeast Florida, is one of the largest marine parks in the country and sustains a large natural marine fishery where numerous threatened and endangered species reproduce. In recent years, the bay has experienced hypersaline conditions (salinity greater than 35 practical salinity units) of increasing magnitude and duration. Hypersalinity events were particularly pronounced during April to August 2004 in nearshore areas along the southern and middle parts of the bay. Prolonged hypersaline conditions can cause degradation of water quality and permanent damage to, or loss of, brackish nursery habitats for multiple species of fish and crustaceans as well as damage to certain types of seagrasses that are not tolerant of extreme changes in salinity. To evaluate the factors that contribute to hypersalinity events and to test the effects of possible changes in precipitation patterns and canal flows into Biscayne Bay on salinity in the bay, the U.S. Geological Survey constructed a coupled surface-water/groundwater numerical flow model. The model is designed to account for freshwater flows into Biscayne Bay through the canal system, leakage of salty bay water into the underlying Biscayne aquifer, discharge of fresh and salty groundwater from the Biscayne aquifer into the bay, direct effects of precipitation on bay salinity, indirect effects of precipitation on recharge to the Biscayne aquifer, direct effects of evapotranspiration (ET) on bay salinity, indirect effects of ET on recharge to the Biscayne aquifer, and maintenance of mass balance of both water and solute. The model was constructed using the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density Dependent System (FTLOADDS) simulator, version 3.3, which couples the two-dimensional, surface-water flow and solute-transport simulator SWIFT2D with the density-dependent, groundwater flow an solute-transport simulator SEAWAT. The model was calibrated by a trial

  12. Comparing the two Greek archipelagos plant species diversity and endemism patterns highlight the importance of isolation and precipitation as biodiversity drivers. (United States)

    Iliadou, Eleni; Kallimanis, Athanasios S; Dimopoulos, Panayotis; Panitsa, Maria


    Greece has two island archipelagos, the Aegean and the Ionian, which host a rich array of plants and wildlife, particularly endemic and threatened plant species. Despite the long history of island biogeographic studies in the Aegean, similar studies in the Ionian remain limited, with the two island archipelagos rarely being compared. The Aegean and Ionian archipelagos share many features, especially regarding total plant diversity, but exhibit different patterns of endemism. For instance, when considering similarly sized islands, those in the Ionian host as many as, if not more, species compared to the Aegean. In contrast, the Ionian Islands are poor in endemics (particularly narrow range endemics, such as single island or regional endemics) and threatened taxa, compared to the Aegean Islands. In the Ionian, endemics only persist on the largest islands, and form a very small proportion of the species pool, compared to the Aegean archipelago. The lack of endemism might be attributed to the more recent separation of the Ionian Islands from the mainland and the shorter distance separating them from the mainland. In addition, the Ionian Islands receive higher levels of precipitation and are typically covered by denser and higher vegetation than the Aegean Islands. These conditions favour greater total species richness, but tend to lead to higher numbers of common species compared to threatened and endemic taxa. This study demonstrates that both isolation and precipitation serve as biodiversity drivers, influencing plant species diversity and endemism patterns, of the two Greek archipelagos.

  13. Patterns of patient safety culture: a complexity and arts-informed project of knowledge translation. (United States)

    Mitchell, Gail J; Tregunno, Deborah; Gray, Julia; Ginsberg, Liane


    The purpose of this paper is to describe patterns of patient safety culture that emerged from an innovative collaboration among health services researchers and fine arts colleagues. The group engaged in an arts-informed knowledge translation project to produce a dramatic expression of patient safety culture research for inclusion in a symposium. Scholars have called for a deeper understanding of the complex interrelationships among structure, process and outcomes relating to patient safety. Four patterns of patient safety culture--blinding familiarity, unyielding determination, illusion of control and dismissive urgency--are described with respect to how they informed creation of an arts-informed project for knowledge translation.

  14. Demonstration of a tunable two-frequency projected fringe pattern with acousto-optic deflectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dupont, S.; Kastelik, J. C.


    We report on a fringe projector for three-dimensional shape measurement. The developed instrument is able to project a two-frequency fringe pattern, each frequency is independently controlled by electronics. Moreover, each phase of the two fringe patterns is also independently adjusted. The projection system is based on the use of a pair of custom large bandwidth (40 MHz) and high efficiency (60%) TeO 2 deflectors. The developed instrument offers the combined advantages of a static two-frequency fringe projector and of a tunable single frequency fringe projector

  15. Graphene crystal growth by thermal precipitation of focused ion beam induced deposition of carbon precursor via patterned-iron thin layers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rius Gemma


    Full Text Available Recently, relevant advances on graphene as a building block of integrated circuits (ICs have been demonstrated. Graphene growth and device fabrication related processing has been steadily and intensively powered due to commercial interest; however, there are many challenges associated with the incorporation of graphene into commercial applications which includes challenges associated with the synthesis of this material. Specifically, the controlled deposition of single layer large single crystal graphene on arbitrary supports, is particularly challenging. Previously, we have reported the first demonstration of the transformation of focused ion beam induced deposition of carbon (FIBID-C into patterned graphitic layers by metal-assisted thermal treatment (Ni foils. In this present work, we continue exploiting the FIBID-C approach as a route for graphene deposition. Here, thin patterned Fe layers are used for the catalysis of graphenization and graphitization. We demonstrate the formation of high quality single and few layer graphene, which evidences, the possibility of using Fe as a catalyst for graphene deposition. The mechanism is understood as the minute precipitation of atomic carbon after supersaturation of some iron carbides formed under a high temperature treatment. As a consequence of the complete wetting of FIBID-C and patterned Fe layers, which enable graphene growth, the as-deposited patterns do not preserve their original shape after the thermal treatment

  16. WPA Precipitation Tabulations (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hourly precipitation data tabulated under the Work Projects Administration (WPA), a New Deal program created to reduce unemployment during the Great Depression....

  17. A nonlinear dynamics approach for incorporating wind-speed patterns into wind-power project evaluation. (United States)

    Huffaker, Ray; Bittelli, Marco


    Wind-energy production may be expanded beyond regions with high-average wind speeds (such as the Midwest U.S.A.) to sites with lower-average speeds (such as the Southeast U.S.A.) by locating favorable regional matches between natural wind-speed and energy-demand patterns. A critical component of wind-power evaluation is to incorporate wind-speed dynamics reflecting documented diurnal and seasonal behavioral patterns. Conventional probabilistic approaches remove patterns from wind-speed data. These patterns must be restored synthetically before they can be matched with energy-demand patterns. How to accurately restore wind-speed patterns is a vexing problem spurring an expanding line of papers. We propose a paradigm shift in wind power evaluation that employs signal-detection and nonlinear-dynamics techniques to empirically diagnose whether synthetic pattern restoration can be avoided altogether. If the complex behavior of observed wind-speed records is due to nonlinear, low-dimensional, and deterministic system dynamics, then nonlinear dynamics techniques can reconstruct wind-speed dynamics from observed wind-speed data without recourse to conventional probabilistic approaches. In the first study of its kind, we test a nonlinear dynamics approach in an application to Sugarland Wind-the first utility-scale wind project proposed in Florida, USA. We find empirical evidence of a low-dimensional and nonlinear wind-speed attractor characterized by strong temporal patterns that match up well with regular daily and seasonal electricity demand patterns.

  18. Runoff Trends Analysis and Future Projections of Hydrological Patterns in Small Forested Catchments

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lamačová, Anna; Hruška, Jakub; Krám, Pavel; Stuchlik, E.; Farda, Aleš; Chuman, T.; Fottová, Daniela


    Roč. 9, č. 4 (2014), s. 169-181 ISSN 1801-5395 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * flow pattern * headwater catchments * hydrological modelling Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.659, year: 2014

  19. Characterizing recent and projecting future potential patterns of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the Southern Rocky Mountains (United States)

    Liang, Lu; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Chen, Yanlei; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Gong, Peng


    The recent widespread mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak in the Southern Rocky Mountains presents an opportunity to investigate the relative influence of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical drivers that have shaped the spatiotemporal patterns of the outbreak. The aim of this study was to quantify the landscape-level drivers that explained the dynamic patterns of MPB mortality, and simulate areas with future potential MPB mortality under projected climate-change scenarios in Grand County, Colorado, USA. The outbreak patterns of MPB were characterized by analysis of a decade-long Landsat time-series stack, aided by automatic attribution of change detected by the Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery algorithm (LandTrendr). The annual area of new MPB mortality was then related to a suite of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical predictor variables under a general linear model (GLM) framework. Data from years 2001–2005 were used to train the model and data from years 2006–2011 were retained for validation. After stepwise removal of non-significant predictors, the remaining predictors in the GLM indicated that neighborhood mortality, winter mean temperature anomaly, and residential housing density were positively associated with MPB mortality, whereas summer precipitation was negatively related. The final model had an average area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic plot value of 0.72 in predicting the annual area of new mortality for the independent validation years, and the mean deviation from the base maps in the MPB mortality areal estimates was around 5%. The extent of MPB mortality will likely expand under two climate-change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) in Grand County, which implies that the impacts of MPB outbreaks on vegetation composition and structure, and ecosystem functioning are likely to increase in the future.

  20. Soil respiration patterns and rates at three Taiwanese forest plantations: dependence on elevation, temperature, precipitation, and litterfall


    Huang, Yu-Hsuan; Hung, Chih-Yu; Lin, I-Rhy; Kume, Tomonori; Menyailo, Oleg V.; Cheng, Chih-Hsin


    Background Soil respiration contributes to a large quantity of carbon emissions in the forest ecosystem. In this study, the soil respiration rates at three Taiwanese forest plantations (two lowland and one mid-elevation) were investigated. We aimed to determine how soil respiration varies between lowland and mid-elevation forest plantations and identify the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors affecting soil respiration. Results The results showed that the temporal patterns of so...

  1. Contrasting response of coexisting plant’s water-use patterns to experimental precipitation manipulation in an alpine grassland community of Qinghai Lake watershed, China (United States)

    Li, Xiao-Yan; He, Bin; Liu, Jinzhao; Jiang, Zhiyun; Zhang, Cicheng


    Understanding species-specific changes in water-use patterns under recent climate scenarios is necessary to predict accurately the responses of seasonally dry ecosystems to future climate. In this study, we conducted a precipitation manipulation experiment to investigate the changes in water-use patterns of two coexisting species (Achnatherum splendens and Allium tanguticum) to alterations in soil water content (SWC) resulting from increased and decreased rainfall treatments. The results showed that the leaf water potential (Ψ) of A. splendens and A. tanguticum responded to changes in shallow and middle SWC at both the control and treatment plots. However, A. splendens proportionally extracted water from the shallow soil layer (0–10cm) when it was available but shifted to absorbing deep soil water (30–60 cm) during drought. By contrast, the A. tanguticum did not differ significantly in uptake depth between treatment and control plots but entirely depended on water from shallow soil layers. The flexible water-use patterns of A.splendens may be a key factor facilitating its dominance and it better acclimates the recent climate change in the alpine grassland community around Qinghai Lake. PMID:29677195

  2. Empirically derived dietary patterns and health-related quality of life in the SUN project.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Ruano

    Full Text Available The analysis of dietary patterns has become a valuable tool to examine diet-disease relationships but little is known about their effects on quality of life. Our aim was to ascertain the association between major dietary patterns and mental and physical quality of life after 4 years of follow-up.This analysis included 11,128 participants from the "Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra" (SUN cohort. Dietary habits were assessed using a validated food-frequency questionnaire. Factor analysis was used to derive dietary patterns. Quality of life was measured with the validated Spanish version of the SF-36 Health Survey.Two major dietary patterns were identified, the 'Western' dietary pattern (rich in red meats, processed pastries and fast-food and the "Mediterranean" dietary pattern (high in fruits, vegetables and olive oil. After controlling for confounders, the Western dietary pattern was associated with quality of life in all domains. The magnitude of these differences between the subjects in the highest (quintile 5 and the lowest quintile of adherence to the Western pattern ranged from -0.8 (for mental health to -3.5 (for vitality. On the contrary, the Mediterranean dietary pattern was associated with better quality of life domains: differences ranged from +1.3 (for physical functioning to +3.4 (for vitality when comparing extreme quintiles of adherence. Additional sensitivity analyses did not change the reported differences.Whereas baseline adherence to a Western dietary pattern was inversely associated with self-perceived quality of life after 4 years of follow-up, baseline adherence to a Mediterranean dietary pattern was directly associated with better scores in quality of life four years later in the SUN Project.

  3. Empirically derived dietary patterns and health-related quality of life in the SUN project. (United States)

    Ruano, Cristina; Henriquez, Patricia; Martínez-González, Miguel Ángel; Bes-Rastrollo, Maira; Ruiz-Canela, Miguel; Sánchez-Villegas, Almudena


    The analysis of dietary patterns has become a valuable tool to examine diet-disease relationships but little is known about their effects on quality of life. Our aim was to ascertain the association between major dietary patterns and mental and physical quality of life after 4 years of follow-up. This analysis included 11,128 participants from the "Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra" (SUN) cohort. Dietary habits were assessed using a validated food-frequency questionnaire. Factor analysis was used to derive dietary patterns. Quality of life was measured with the validated Spanish version of the SF-36 Health Survey. Two major dietary patterns were identified, the 'Western' dietary pattern (rich in red meats, processed pastries and fast-food) and the "Mediterranean" dietary pattern (high in fruits, vegetables and olive oil). After controlling for confounders, the Western dietary pattern was associated with quality of life in all domains. The magnitude of these differences between the subjects in the highest (quintile 5) and the lowest quintile of adherence to the Western pattern ranged from -0.8 (for mental health) to -3.5 (for vitality). On the contrary, the Mediterranean dietary pattern was associated with better quality of life domains: differences ranged from +1.3 (for physical functioning) to +3.4 (for vitality) when comparing extreme quintiles of adherence. Additional sensitivity analyses did not change the reported differences. Whereas baseline adherence to a Western dietary pattern was inversely associated with self-perceived quality of life after 4 years of follow-up, baseline adherence to a Mediterranean dietary pattern was directly associated with better scores in quality of life four years later in the SUN Project.

  4. Variation of Oriental Oak (Quercus variabilis Leaf δ13C across Temperate and Subtropical China: Spatial Patterns and Sensitivity to Precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baoming Du


    Full Text Available The concentration of the carbon-13 isotope (leaf δ13C in leaves is negatively correlated with the mean annual precipitation (MAP atlarge geographical scales. In this paper, we explain the spatial pattern of leaf δ13C variation for deciduous oriental oak (Quercus variabilis Bl. across temperate and subtropical biomes and its sensitivity to climate factors such as MAP. There was a 6‰ variation in the leaf δ13C values of oak with a significant positive correlation with latitude and negative correlations with the mean annual temperature (MAT and MAP. There was no correlation between leaf δ13C and altitude or longitude. Stepwise multiple regression analyses showed that leaf δ13C decreased 0.3‰ per 100 mm increase in MAP. MAP alone could account for 68% of the observed variation in leaf δ13C. These results can be used to improve predictions for plant responses to climate change and particularly lower rainfall.

  5. The grating projection system: a laser light pattern projection technique for long distance illumination based on the Talbot effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castagner, J L; Jones, A R


    Inspired by the Talbot effect, a grating projection system was designed. Periodic patterns were produced from a projection of a diffraction grating illuminated by a spherical wave of monochromatic coherent light. The diffracted light was collimated by a lens, the focal distance of which was at the centre of the incident spherical wave. Experiments demonstrated that the diffracted orders were also spherical waves centred on the same transverse plane as the incident light. The periodic illumination observed at different locations along the optic axis was proven to be the result of interference between the diffracted orders. It was demonstrated that this system could be used to measure velocities up to 20 m s -1 of particles crossing the fringes at distances up to 3 m

  6. Short-term dissolved organic carbon dynamics reflect water management and precipitation patterns in a subtropical estuary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Regier


    Full Text Available Estuaries significantly impact the global carbon cycle by regulating the exchange of organic matter, primarily in the form of dissolved organic carbon (DOC, between terrestrial and marine carbon pools. Estuarine DOC dynamics are complex as tides and other hydrological and climatic drivers can affect carbon fluxes on short and long time scales. While estuarine and coastal DOC dynamics have been well studied, variations on short time scales are less well constrained. Recent advancements in sonde technology enable autonomous in situ collection of high frequency DOC data using fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM as a proxy, dramatically improving our capacity to characterize rapid changes in DOC, even in remote ecosystems. This study utilizes high-frequency fDOM measurements to untangle rapid and complex hydrologic drivers of DOC in the Shark River estuary, the main drainage of Everglades National Park, Florida. Non-conservative mixing of fDOM along the salinity gradient suggested mangrove inputs accounted for 6% of the total DOC pool. Average changes in fDOM concentrations through individual tidal cycles ranged from less than 10% to greater than 50% and multi-day trends greater than 100% change in fDOM concentration were observed. Salinity and water level both inversely correlated to fDOM at sub-hourly and daily resolutions, while freshwater controls via precipitation and water management were observed at diel to monthly time-scales. In particular, the role of water management in rapidly shifting estuarine salinity gradients and DOC export regimes at sub-weekly time-scales was evident. Additionally, sub-hourly spikes in ebb-tide fDOM indicated rapid exchange of DOC between mangrove sediments and the river channel. DOC fluxes calculated from high-resolution fDOM measurements were compared to monthly DOC measurements with high-resolution fluxes considerably improving accuracy of fluxes (thereby constraining carbon budgets. This study provides

  7. Spatio-temporal patterns of the effects of precipitation variability and land use/cover changes on long-term changes in sediment yield in the Loess Plateau, China (United States)

    Gao, Guangyao; Zhang, Jianjun; Liu, Yu; Ning, Zheng; Fu, Bojie; Sivapalan, Murugesu


    Within China's Loess Plateau there have been concerted revegetation efforts and engineering measures since the 1950s aimed at reducing soil erosion and land degradation. As a result, annual streamflow, sediment yield, and sediment concentration have all decreased considerably. Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC) was the dominant factor, contributing over 70 % of the sediment load reduction, whereas the contribution of precipitation was less than 30 %. In this study, we use 50-year time series data (1961-2011), showing decreasing trends in the annual sediment loads of 15 catchments, to generate spatio-temporal patterns in the effects of LUCC and precipitation variability on sediment yield. The space-time variability of sediment yield was expressed notionally as a product of two factors representing (i) the effect of precipitation and (ii) the fraction of treated land surface area. Under minimal LUCC, the square root of annual sediment yield varied linearly with precipitation, with the precipitation-sediment load relationship showing coherent spatial patterns amongst the catchments. As the LUCC increased and took effect, the changes in sediment yield pattern depended more on engineering measures and vegetation restoration campaign, and the within-year rainfall patterns (especially storm events) also played an important role. The effect of LUCC is expressed in terms of a sediment coefficient, i.e., the ratio of annual sediment yield to annual precipitation. Sediment coefficients showed a steady decrease over the study period, following a linear decreasing function of the fraction of treated land surface area. In this way, the study has brought out the separate roles of precipitation variability and LUCC in controlling spatio-temporal patterns of sediment yield at catchment scale.

  8. Acceleration and Counteraction of Changes in Vegetation Seasonality and Patterns using CMIP5 Projections from Different ESMs. (United States)

    Chavaillaz, Y.; Joussaume, S.; De Noblet-Decoudre, N.


    Most climatological studies characterize future climate change as the evolution between a fixed current baseline and the future. Considering the pace of future climate change is however of major importance, since it may strongly influence how we experience climate hazards. To complement previous work related to the pace of temperature and precipitation changes, we propose here to study how fast vegetation seasonality and patterns of climate change evolve in different future configurations according to CMIP5 simulations of several Earth system models. The pace is defined as the difference in relevant metrics between two successive 20-year periods, i.e. with a continually moving baseline. Shifts of vegetation groups and changes in the characteristics of the seasonal cycle are considered. Both accelerate in close relationship with the warming rate regardless of the selected scenario, but they balance each other out, especially for trees in northern mid- and high-latitudes. Efforts are nevertheless strongly needed to harmonize the representation of vegetation in new versions of model inter-comparison projects, in order to properly conduct multi-model analyses related to vegetation changes.

  9. Multiresolution comparison of precipitation datasets for large-scale models (United States)

    Chun, K. P.; Sapriza Azuri, G.; Davison, B.; DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.


    Gridded precipitation datasets are crucial for driving large-scale models which are related to weather forecast and climate research. However, the quality of precipitation products is usually validated individually. Comparisons between gridded precipitation products along with ground observations provide another avenue for investigating how the precipitation uncertainty would affect the performance of large-scale models. In this study, using data from a set of precipitation gauges over British Columbia and Alberta, we evaluate several widely used North America gridded products including the Canadian Gridded Precipitation Anomalies (CANGRD), the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, the Water and Global Change (WATCH) project, the thin plate spline smoothing algorithms (ANUSPLIN) and Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA). Based on verification criteria for various temporal and spatial scales, results provide an assessment of possible applications for various precipitation datasets. For long-term climate variation studies (~100 years), CANGRD, NCEP, WATCH and ANUSPLIN have different comparative advantages in terms of their resolution and accuracy. For synoptic and mesoscale precipitation patterns, CaPA provides appealing performance of spatial coherence. In addition to the products comparison, various downscaling methods are also surveyed to explore new verification and bias-reduction methods for improving gridded precipitation outputs for large-scale models.

  10. Future projections of extreme precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves for climate adaptation planning in New York State

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur T. DeGaetano


    One-hundred-year recurrence interval precipitation amounts exhibit a median increase of between 5 and 10% across the state in the 2010–2039 period regardless of greenhouse gas concentration. By the 2040–2069 period, the median increase is on the order of 10–20% for the high concentration case (RCP 8.5, but remains below 10% if concentrations are lower (RCP 4.5. At the end of the century, all downscaling method climate model combinations indicate increases, with a median change of between 20 and 30% in the case of high concentrations.

  11. Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods to estimate changes in hourly extreme precipitation using RCM projections from ENSEMBLES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Rosbjerg, Dan


    change method for extreme events, a weather generator combined with a disaggregation method and a climate analogue method. All three methods rely on different assumptions and use different outputs from the regional climate models (RCMs). The results of the three methods point towards an increase...... in extreme precipitation but the magnitude of the change varies depending on the RCM used and the spatial location. In general, a similar mean change is obtained for the three methods. This adds confidence in the results as each method uses different information from the RCMs. The results of this study...

  12. Future Projections of Air Temperature and Precipitation for the CORDEX-MENA Domain by Using RegCM4.3.5 (United States)

    Ozturk, Tugba; Turp, M. Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, M. Levent


    In this study, the projected changes for the periods of 2016 - 2035, 2046 - 2065, and 2081 - 2100 in the seasonal averages of air temperature and precipitation variables with respect to the reference period of 1981 - 2000 were examined for the Middle East and North Africa region. In this context, Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was run by using two different global climate models. MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and HadGEM2 of the Met Office Hadley Centre were dynamically downscaled to 50 km for the CORDEX-MENA domain. The projections were realized according to the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change).

  13. Long-term patterns of air temperatures, daily temperature range, precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in the USA Great Plains: Part I. Spatial trends (United States)

    Kukal, M.; Irmak, S.


    Due to their substantial spatio-temporal behavior, long-term quantification and analyses of important hydrological variables are essential for practical applications in water resources planning, evaluating the water use of agricultural crop production and quantifying crop evapotranspiration patterns and irrigation management vs. hydrologic balance relationships. Observed data at over 800 sites across the Great Plains of USA, comprising of 9 states and 2,307,410 km2 of surface area, which is about 30% of the terrestrial area of the USA, were used to quantify and map large-scale and long-term (1968-2013) spatial trends of air temperatures, daily temperature range (DTR), precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and aridity index (AI) at monthly, growing season and annual time steps. Air temperatures had a strong north to south increasing trend, with annual average varying from -1 to 24 °C, and growing season average temperature varying from 8 to 30 °C. DTR gradually decreased from western to eastern parts of the region, with a regional annual and growing season averages of 14.25 °C and 14.79 °C, respectively. Precipitation had a gradual shift towards higher magnitudes from west to east, with the average annual and growing season (May-September) precipitation ranging from 163 to 1486 mm and from 98 to 746 mm, respectively. ETo had a southwest-northeast decreasing trend, with regional annual and growing season averages of 1297 mm and 823 mm, respectively. AI increased from west to east, indicating higher humidity (less arid) towards the east, with regional annual and growing season averages of 0.49 and 0.44, respectively. The spatial datasets and maps for these important climate variables can serve as valuable background for climate change and hydrologic studies in the Great Plains region. Through identification of priority areas from the developed maps, efforts of the concerned personnel and agencies and resources can be diverted towards development

  14. Spatio-temporal patterns of the effects of precipitation variability and land use/cover changes on long-term changes in sediment yield in the Loess Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Gao


    Full Text Available Within China's Loess Plateau there have been concerted revegetation efforts and engineering measures since the 1950s aimed at reducing soil erosion and land degradation. As a result, annual streamflow, sediment yield, and sediment concentration have all decreased considerably. Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC was the dominant factor, contributing over 70 % of the sediment load reduction, whereas the contribution of precipitation was less than 30 %. In this study, we use 50-year time series data (1961–2011, showing decreasing trends in the annual sediment loads of 15 catchments, to generate spatio-temporal patterns in the effects of LUCC and precipitation variability on sediment yield. The space–time variability of sediment yield was expressed notionally as a product of two factors representing (i the effect of precipitation and (ii the fraction of treated land surface area. Under minimal LUCC, the square root of annual sediment yield varied linearly with precipitation, with the precipitation–sediment load relationship showing coherent spatial patterns amongst the catchments. As the LUCC increased and took effect, the changes in sediment yield pattern depended more on engineering measures and vegetation restoration campaign, and the within-year rainfall patterns (especially storm events also played an important role. The effect of LUCC is expressed in terms of a sediment coefficient, i.e., the ratio of annual sediment yield to annual precipitation. Sediment coefficients showed a steady decrease over the study period, following a linear decreasing function of the fraction of treated land surface area. In this way, the study has brought out the separate roles of precipitation variability and LUCC in controlling spatio-temporal patterns of sediment yield at catchment scale.

  15. Disruptive Innovation Patterns Driven by Mega-Projects: A Sustainable Development Pattern Case of China’s High-Speed Rail

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bingxiu Gui


    Full Text Available Sustainable development of mega-projects has drawn many concerns around the world. The theory of disruptive innovation in mega-projects is a typical sustainable development pattern but still lacks systematic understanding. This article takes China’s high-speed rail (CHSR project as an example to analyze the disruptive innovation pattern of mega-projects. First, this paper systematically traces the theories of disruptive innovation and summarizes the connotations of disruptive innovation. Simultaneously, from the historical development of several typical mega-projects in China, this paper summarizes the connotations of mega-projects. Based on two connotations, this paper summarizes the theoretical basis of disruptive innovation in mega-projects. Second, this paper takes the CHSR project as a case to analyze its innovation pattern from the analysis of the development process, operation mechanism and influence in sustainability; the disruptive innovation pattern is put forward afterward. Third, the discussion is drawn from the perspectives of the characteristics, scope of application and innovation environment of the disruptive innovation of CHSR. Last, the conclusions of this article are summarized.

  16. Variable resolution pattern generation for the Associative Memory of the ATLAS FTK project

    CERN Document Server

    Annovi, A; The ATLAS collaboration; Faulkner, G; Giannetti, P; Jiang, Z; Luongo, C; Pandini, C; Shochet, M; Tompkins, L; Volpi, G


    The Associative Memory (AM) chip is special device that allows to find coincidence patterns, or just patterns, between the incoming data in up to 8 parallel streams. The latest AM chip has been designed to receive silicon clusters generated in 8 layers of the ATLAS silicon detector sensor, to perform parallel track pattern matching at high rate and it will be the core of the FTK project. Data going through each of the busses are compared with a bank of patterns and AM chip looks for matches in each line, like commercial content addressable memory (CAM). The high density of hits expected in the ATLAS inner detector from 2015 put a challenge in the capability of the AM chip in rejecting random coincidences, requiring either an extremely high number of high precision patterns, with increasing costs and complexity of the system, or more flexible solutions. For this reason in the most recent prototype of the AM chip ternary cells have been added in the logic, allowing “don’t care” (DC) bits in the match. Hav...

  17. Climate change projections of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration for the Middle East and Northern Africa until 2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Terink, W.; Immerzeel, W.W.; Droogers, P.


    The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region can be considered as the most water-scarce region of the world. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects strong changes in climate across MENA, further exacerbating pressure on available water resources. The objective of this study is to

  18. Analysis of precipitation teleconnections in CMIP models as a measure of model fidelity in simulating precipitation (United States)

    Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J.; Meyerson, J.


    The accurate representation of precipitation is a recurring issue in global climate models, especially in the tropics. Poor skill in modeling the variability and climate teleconnections associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also persisted in the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) campaigns. Observed ENSO precipitation teleconnections provide a standard by which we can judge a given model's ability to reproduce precipitation and dynamic feedback processes originating in the tropical Pacific. Using CMIP3 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs as a baseline, we compare precipitation teleconnections between models and observations, and we evaluate these results against available CMIP5 historical and AMIP runs. Using AMIP simulations restricts evaluation to the atmospheric response, as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in AMIP are prescribed by observations. We use a rank correlation between ENSO SST indices and precipitation to define teleconnections, since this method is robust to outliers and appropriate for non-Gaussian data. Spatial correlations of the modeled and observed teleconnections are then evaluated. We look at these correlations in regions of strong precipitation teleconnections, including equatorial S. America, the "horseshoe" region in the western tropical Pacific, and southern N. America. For each region and season, we create a "normalized projection" of a given model's teleconnection pattern onto that of the observations, a metric that assesses the quality of regional pattern simulations while rewarding signals of correct sign over the region. Comparing this to an area-averaged (i.e., more generous) metric suggests models do better when restrictions on exact spatial dependence are loosened and conservation constraints apply. Model fidelity in regional measures remains far from perfect, suggesting intrinsic issues with the models' regional sensitivities in moist processes.

  19. Patterns in professional growth of science teachers involved in a team-based PD project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Birgitte Lund

    and learning and subsequent discussion of this material. Repeated interviews were analyzed using an adapted version of the interconnected model of teachers’ professional growth. The results show various ways of experimenting with new approaches to be important for three of the teachers while a novice teacher...... the participants refer to. Conclusion is that there are professional growth patterns, especially a pattern involving experimenting, which have a forward-pointing potential to be used to inform school based PD. The results implicate that the same PD project can frame experimenting into practice in various tempi...... and with differentiated facilitation aligned to the individual teacher’s current needs and that external support of science resource teachers can be an integrated part of school based PD....

  20. Simplified absolute phase retrieval of dual-frequency fringe patterns in fringe projection profilometry (United States)

    Lu, Jin; Mo, Rong; Sun, Huibin; Chang, Zhiyong; Zhao, Xiaxia


    In fringe projection profilometry, a simplified method is proposed to recover absolute phase maps of two-frequency fringe patterns by using a unique mapping rule. The mapping rule is designed from the rounded phase values to the fringe order of each pixel. Absolute phase can be recovered by the fringe order maps. Unlike the existing techniques, where the lowest frequency of dual- or multiple-frequency fringe patterns must be single, the presented method breaks the limitation and simplifies the procedure of phase unwrapping. Additionally, due to many issues including ambient light, shadow, sharp edges, step height boundaries and surface reflectivity variations, a novel framework of automatically identifying and removing invalid phase values is also proposed. Simulations and experiments have been carried out to validate the performances of the proposed method.

  1. Winter Precipitation in North America and the Pacific-North America Pattern in GEOS-S2Sv2 Seasonal Hindcast (United States)

    Li, Zhao; Molod, Andrea; Schubert, Siegfried


    Reliable prediction of precipitation remains one of the most pivotal and complex challenges in seasonal forecasting. Previous studies show that various large-scale climate modes, such as ENSO, PNA and NAO play significant role in winter precipitation variability over the Northern America. The influences are most pronounced in years of strong indices of such climate modes. This study evaluates model bias, predictability and forecast skills of monthly winter precipitation in GEOS5-S2S 2.0 retrospective forecast from 1981 to 2016, with emphasis on the forecast skill of precipitation over North America during the extreme events of ENSO, PNA and NAO by applying EOF and composite analysis.

  2. Implementation of visitor pattern in processing a syntax tree in Qlab project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đenić Aleksandar


    Full Text Available Qlab is an open-source project that supports various mathematical calculations, specialized for academic use. It has been developed at the Faculty of Mathematics, University of Belgrade, and is supported by Microsoft Serbia. In this paper we present some of Qlab’s successfully implemented core solutions. More precisely, in our approach we use a specialized Visitor pattern to optimize the management of syntax tree commands that our parser sends to our engine. This allows the processing of a larger scale of tree implementation using the Visitor interface.

  3. Precipitation and measurements of precipitation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmidt, F.H.; Bruin, H.A.R. de; Attmannspacher, W.; Harrold, T.W.; Kraijenhoff van de Leur, D.A.


    In Western Europe, precipitation is normal phenomenon; it is of importance to all aspects of society, particularly to agriculture, in cattle breeding and, of course, it is a subject of hydrological research. Precipitation is an essential part in the hydrological cycle. How disastrous local

  4. Stord Orographic Precipitation Experiment (STOPEX: an overview of phase I

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sandvik


    Full Text Available STOPEX (Stord Orographic Precipitation Experiment is a research project of the Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway, dedicated to the investigation of orographic effects on fine scale precipitation patterns by a combination of numerical modelling and tailored measurement campaigns. Between 24 September and 16 November 2005 the first field campaign STOPEX I has been performed at and around the island of Stord at the west coast of Norway, about 50 km south of Bergen. 12 rain gauges and 3 autonomous weather stations have been installed to measure the variability of precipitation and the corresponding meteorological conditions. This paper gives an overview of the projects motivation, a description of the campaign and a presentation of the precipitation measurements performed. In addition, the extreme precipitation event around 14 November with precipitation amounts up to 240 mm in less than 24 h, is described and briefly discussed. In this context preliminary results of corresponding MM5 simulations are presented, that indicate the problems as well as potential improvement strategies with respect to modelling of fine scale orographic precipitation.

  5. Precipitous Birth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Yee


    Full Text Available Audience: This scenario was developed to educate emergency medicine residents on the management of a precipitous birth in the emergency department (ED. The case is also appropriate for teaching of medical students and advanced practice providers, as well as reviewing the principles of crisis resource management, teamwork, and communication. Introduction: Patients with precipitous birth require providers to manage two patients simultaneously with limited time and resources. Crisis resource management skills will be tested once baby is delivered, and the neonate will require assessment for potential neonatal resuscitation. Objectives: At the conclusion of the simulation session, learners will be able to manage women who have precipitous deliveries, as well as perform neonatal assessment and management. Method: This session was conducted using high-fidelity simulation, followed by a debriefing session and lecture on precipitous birth management and neonatal evaluation.

  6. TCA precipitation. (United States)

    Koontz, Laura


    Trichloroacetic acid (TCA) precipitation of proteins is commonly used to concentrate protein samples or remove contaminants, including salts and detergents, prior to downstream applications such as SDS-PAGE or 2D-gels. TCA precipitation denatures the protein, so it should not be used if the protein must remain in its folded state (e.g., if you want to measure a biochemical activity of the protein). © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.


    McKenzie, T.R.


    A process is given for improving the precipitation of strontium from an aqueous phosphoric-acid-containing solution with nickel or cobalt ferrocyanide by simultaneously precipitating strontium or calcium phosphate. This is accomplished by adding to the ferrocyanide-containing solution calcium or strontium nitrate in a quantity to yield a concentration of from 0.004 to 0.03 and adjusting the pH of the solution to a value of above 8.

  8. The INCOMPASS project field and modelling campaign: Interaction of Convective Organization and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea (United States)

    Turner, Andrew; Bhat, Ganapati; Evans, Jonathan; Madan, Ranju; Marsham, John; Martin, Gill; Mitra, Ashis; Mrudula, Gm; Parker, Douglas; Pattnaik, Sandeep; Rajagopal, En; Taylor, Christopher; Tripathi, Sachchida


    The INCOMPASS project uses data from a field and aircraft measurement campaign during the 2016 monsoon onset to better understand and predict monsoon rainfall. The monsoon supplies the majority of water in South Asia, however modelling and forecasting the monsoon from days to the season ahead is limited by large model errors that develop quickly. Likely problems lie in physical parametrizations such as convection, the boundary layer and land surface. At the same time, lack of detailed observations prevents more thorough understanding of monsoon circulation and its interaction with the land surface; a process governed by boundary layer and convective cloud dynamics. From May to July 2016, INCOMPASS used a modified BAe-146 jet aircraft operated by the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM), for the first project of this scale in India. The India and UK team flew around 100 hours of science sorties from bases in northern and southern India. Flights from Lucknow in the northern plains took measurements to the west and southeast to allow sampling of the complete contrast from dry desert air to the humid environment over the north Bay of Bengal. These routes were repeated in the pre-monsoon and monsoon phases, measuring contrasting surface and boundary layer structures. In addition, flights from the southern base in Bengaluru measured contrasts from the Arabian Sea, across the intense rains of the Western Ghats mountains, over the rain shadow in southeast India and over the southern Bay of Bengal. Flight planning was performed with the aid of forecasts from a new UK Met Office 4km limited area model. INCOMPASS also installed a network of surface flux towers, as well as operating a cloud-base ceilometer and performing intensive radiosonde launches from a supersite in Kanpur. Here we will outline preliminary results from the field campaign including new observations of the surface, boundary layer structure and atmospheric profiles from aircraft data. We

  9. Multimodel GCM-RCM Ensemble-Based Projections of Temperature and Precipitation over West Africa for the Early 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Diallo


    Full Text Available Reliable climate change scenarios are critical for West Africa, whose economy relies mostly on agriculture and, in this regard, multimodel ensembles are believed to provide the most robust climate change information. Toward this end, we analyze and intercompare the performance of a set of four regional climate models (RCMs driven by two global climate models (GCMs (for a total of 4 different GCM-RCM pairs in simulating present day and future climate over West Africa. The results show that the individual RCM members as well as their ensemble employing the same driving fields exhibit different biases and show mixed results in terms of outperforming the GCM simulation of seasonal temperature and precipitation, indicating a substantial sensitivity of RCMs to regional and local processes. These biases are reduced and GCM simulations improved upon by averaging all four RCM simulations, suggesting that multi-model RCM ensembles based on different driving GCMs help to compensate systematic errors from both the nested and the driving models. This confirms the importance of the multi-model approach for improving robustness of climate change projections. Illustrative examples of such ensemble reveal that the western Sahel undergoes substantial drying in future climate projections mostly due to a decrease in peak monsoon rainfall.

  10. Encoding information into precipitation structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martens, Kirsten; Bena, Ioana; Droz, Michel; Rácz, Zoltan


    Material design at submicron scales would be profoundly affected if the formation of precipitation patterns could be easily controlled. It would allow the direct building of bulk structures, in contrast to traditional techniques which consist of removing material in order to create patterns. Here, we discuss an extension of our recent proposal of using electrical currents to control precipitation bands which emerge in the wake of reaction fronts in A + + B – → C reaction–diffusion processes. Our main result, based on simulating the reaction–diffusion–precipitation equations, is that the dynamics of the charged agents can be guided by an appropriately designed time-dependent electric current so that, in addition to the control of the band spacing, the width of the precipitation bands can also be tuned. This makes straightforward the encoding of information into precipitation patterns and, as an amusing example, we demonstrate the feasibility by showing how to encode a musical rhythm

  11. Computer-Assisted Classification Patterns in Autoimmune Diagnostics: The AIDA Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amel Benammar Elgaaied


    Full Text Available Antinuclear antibodies (ANAs are significant biomarkers in the diagnosis of autoimmune diseases in humans, done by mean of Indirect ImmunoFluorescence (IIF method, and performed by analyzing patterns and fluorescence intensity. This paper introduces the AIDA Project (autoimmunity: diagnosis assisted by computer developed in the framework of an Italy-Tunisia cross-border cooperation and its preliminary results. A database of interpreted IIF images is being collected through the exchange of images and double reporting and a Gold Standard database, containing around 1000 double reported images, has been settled. The Gold Standard database is used for optimization of a CAD (Computer Aided Detection solution and for the assessment of its added value, in order to be applied along with an Immunologist as a second Reader in detection of autoantibodies. This CAD system is able to identify on IIF images the fluorescence intensity and the fluorescence pattern. Preliminary results show that CAD, used as second Reader, appeared to perform better than Junior Immunologists and hence may significantly improve their efficacy; compared with two Junior Immunologists, the CAD system showed higher Intensity Accuracy (85,5% versus 66,0% and 66,0%, higher Patterns Accuracy (79,3% versus 48,0% and 66,2%, and higher Mean Class Accuracy (79,4% versus 56,7% and 64.2%.

  12. Computer-Assisted Classification Patterns in Autoimmune Diagnostics: The AIDA Project. (United States)

    Benammar Elgaaied, Amel; Cascio, Donato; Bruno, Salvatore; Ciaccio, Maria Cristina; Cipolla, Marco; Fauci, Alessandro; Morgante, Rossella; Taormina, Vincenzo; Gorgi, Yousr; Marrakchi Triki, Raja; Ben Ahmed, Melika; Louzir, Hechmi; Yalaoui, Sadok; Imene, Sfar; Issaoui, Yassine; Abidi, Ahmed; Ammar, Myriam; Bedhiafi, Walid; Ben Fraj, Oussama; Bouhaha, Rym; Hamdi, Khouloud; Soumaya, Koudhi; Neili, Bilel; Asma, Gati; Lucchese, Mariano; Catanzaro, Maria; Barbara, Vincenza; Brusca, Ignazio; Fregapane, Maria; Amato, Gaetano; Friscia, Giuseppe; Neila, Trai; Turkia, Souayeh; Youssra, Haouami; Rekik, Raja; Bouokez, Hayet; Vasile Simone, Maria; Fauci, Francesco; Raso, Giuseppe


    Antinuclear antibodies (ANAs) are significant biomarkers in the diagnosis of autoimmune diseases in humans, done by mean of Indirect ImmunoFluorescence (IIF) method, and performed by analyzing patterns and fluorescence intensity. This paper introduces the AIDA Project (autoimmunity: diagnosis assisted by computer) developed in the framework of an Italy-Tunisia cross-border cooperation and its preliminary results. A database of interpreted IIF images is being collected through the exchange of images and double reporting and a Gold Standard database, containing around 1000 double reported images, has been settled. The Gold Standard database is used for optimization of a CAD (Computer Aided Detection) solution and for the assessment of its added value, in order to be applied along with an Immunologist as a second Reader in detection of autoantibodies. This CAD system is able to identify on IIF images the fluorescence intensity and the fluorescence pattern. Preliminary results show that CAD, used as second Reader, appeared to perform better than Junior Immunologists and hence may significantly improve their efficacy; compared with two Junior Immunologists, the CAD system showed higher Intensity Accuracy (85,5% versus 66,0% and 66,0%), higher Patterns Accuracy (79,3% versus 48,0% and 66,2%), and higher Mean Class Accuracy (79,4% versus 56,7% and 64.2%).

  13. Computer-Assisted Classification Patterns in Autoimmune Diagnostics: The AIDA Project (United States)

    Benammar Elgaaied, Amel; Cascio, Donato; Bruno, Salvatore; Ciaccio, Maria Cristina; Cipolla, Marco; Fauci, Alessandro; Morgante, Rossella; Taormina, Vincenzo; Gorgi, Yousr; Marrakchi Triki, Raja; Ben Ahmed, Melika; Louzir, Hechmi; Yalaoui, Sadok; Imene, Sfar; Issaoui, Yassine; Abidi, Ahmed; Ammar, Myriam; Bedhiafi, Walid; Ben Fraj, Oussama; Bouhaha, Rym; Hamdi, Khouloud; Soumaya, Koudhi; Neili, Bilel; Asma, Gati; Lucchese, Mariano; Catanzaro, Maria; Barbara, Vincenza; Brusca, Ignazio; Fregapane, Maria; Amato, Gaetano; Friscia, Giuseppe; Neila, Trai; Turkia, Souayeh; Youssra, Haouami; Rekik, Raja; Bouokez, Hayet; Vasile Simone, Maria; Fauci, Francesco; Raso, Giuseppe


    Antinuclear antibodies (ANAs) are significant biomarkers in the diagnosis of autoimmune diseases in humans, done by mean of Indirect ImmunoFluorescence (IIF) method, and performed by analyzing patterns and fluorescence intensity. This paper introduces the AIDA Project (autoimmunity: diagnosis assisted by computer) developed in the framework of an Italy-Tunisia cross-border cooperation and its preliminary results. A database of interpreted IIF images is being collected through the exchange of images and double reporting and a Gold Standard database, containing around 1000 double reported images, has been settled. The Gold Standard database is used for optimization of a CAD (Computer Aided Detection) solution and for the assessment of its added value, in order to be applied along with an Immunologist as a second Reader in detection of autoantibodies. This CAD system is able to identify on IIF images the fluorescence intensity and the fluorescence pattern. Preliminary results show that CAD, used as second Reader, appeared to perform better than Junior Immunologists and hence may significantly improve their efficacy; compared with two Junior Immunologists, the CAD system showed higher Intensity Accuracy (85,5% versus 66,0% and 66,0%), higher Patterns Accuracy (79,3% versus 48,0% and 66,2%), and higher Mean Class Accuracy (79,4% versus 56,7% and 64.2%). PMID:27042658

  14. Evaluation of radar-derived precipitation estimates using runoff simulation : report for the NFR Energy Norway funded project 'Utilisation of weather radar data in atmospheric and hydrological models'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abdella, Yisak; Engeland, Kolbjoern; Lepioufle, Jean-Marie


    This report presents the results from the project called 'Utilisation of weather radar data in atmospheric and hydrological models' funded by NFR and Energy Norway. Three precipitation products (radar-derived, interpolated and combination of the two) were generated as input for hydrological models. All the three products were evaluated by comparing the simulated and observed runoff at catchments. In order to expose any bias in the precipitation inputs, no precipitation correction factors were applied. Three criteria were used to measure the performance: Nash, correlation coefficient, and bias. The results shows that the simulations with the combined precipitation input give the best performance. We also see that the radar-derived precipitation estimates give reasonable runoff simulation even without a region specific parameters for the Z-R relationship. All the three products resulted in an underestimation of the estimated runoff, revealing a systematic bias in measurements (e.g. catch deficit, orographic effects, Z-R relationships) that can be improved. There is an important potential of using radar-derived precipitation for simulation of runoff, especially in catchments without precipitation gauges inside.(Author)

  15. Energy availabilities for state and local development: projected energy patterns for 1980 and 1985

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogt, D. P.; Rice, P. L.; Pai, V. P.


    This report presents projections of the supply, demand, and net imports of seven fuel types and four final consuming sectors for BEAs, states, census regions, and the nation for 1980 and 1985. The data are formatted to present regional energy availability from primary extraction, as well as from regional transformation processes. As constructed, the tables depict energy balances between availability and use for each of the specific fuels. The objective of the program is to provide a consistent base of historic and projected energy information within a standard format. Such a framework should aid regional policymakers in their consideration of regional growth issues that may be influenced by the regional energy system. This basic data must be supplemented by region-specific information which only the local policy analyst can bring to bear in his assessment of the energy conditions which characterize each region. The energy data, coupled with specific knowledge of projected economic growth and employment patterns, can assist EDA in developing its grant-in-aid investment strategy.

  16. Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York (United States)

    Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Kinney, Patrick L.


    Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

  17. Are diet and physical activity patterns related to cigarette smoking in adolescents? Findings from Project EAT. (United States)

    Larson, Nicole I; Story, Mary; Perry, Cheryl L; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Hannan, Peter J


    An inadequate diet and physical inactivity may compound the many deleterious effects of smoking on health. Some research indicates that smoking behavior is related to other health behaviors, but little research has examined how smoking may be related to dietary intake of key nutrients, consumption of fast food, sedentary lifestyle, or weight status. The purpose of this study was to describe smoking frequency among adolescents and its relationship to physical activity and dietary patterns. The research study employed a cross-sectional, population-based design. Adolescents self-reported cigarette smoking, physical activity, and eating behaviors on the Project EAT (Eating Among Teens) survey and reported dietary intake on a food frequency questionnaire completed in school classrooms. The sample included 4746 middle school and high school students from Minneapolis-St. Paul public schools. Mixed-model regression, which was controlled for sex, race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status, grade level (middle school or high school), and school, was used to examine the association of smoking with diet and physical activity patterns. Overall, reported smoking frequency was inversely related to participating in team sports, eating regular meals, and consuming healthful foods and nutrients. Smoking frequency was directly related to frequency of fast-food and soft drink consumption. Adolescents who smoke cigarettes may be less likely to engage in health-promoting lifestyle behaviors. Interventions are needed to prevent smoking and the unhealthy dietary practices and physical activity behaviors that may be associated with it.

  18. Precipitation Matters (United States)

    McDuffie, Thomas


    Although weather, including its role in the water cycle, is included in most elementary science programs, any further examination of raindrops and snowflakes is rare. Together rain and snow make up most of the precipitation that replenishes Earth's life-sustaining fresh water supply. When viewed individually, raindrops and snowflakes are quite…

  19. Exposure to predicted precipitation patterns decreases population size and alters community structure of cyanobacteria in biological soil crusts from the Chihuahuan Desert. (United States)

    Fernandes, Vanessa M C; Machado de Lima, Náthali Maria; Roush, Daniel; Rudgers, Jennifer; Collins, Scott L; Garcia-Pichel, Ferran


    Cyanobacteria typically colonize the surface of arid soils, building biological soil crust (biocrusts) that provide a variety of ecosystem benefits, ranging from fertilization to stabilization against erosion. We investigated how future scenarios in precipitation anticipated for the Northern Chihuahuan Desert affected abundance and composition of biocrust cyanobacteria in two grassland ecosystems. Scenarios included a decrease in precipitation and a delay of monsoon rainfall. After three years, both treatments negatively affected cyanobacteria, although the effects of monsoon delay were milder than those of decreased precipitation. Mature biocrusts in black grama grassland suffered severe losses in cyanobacterial biomass and diversity, but compositionally simpler biocrusts in blue grama-dominated grassland maintained biomass, only suffering diversity losses. This could be partially explained by the differential sensitivity of cyanobacterial taxa: nitrogen-fixing Scytonema spp. were the most sensitive, followed by phylotypes in the Microcoleus steenstrupii complex. Microcoleus vaginatus was the least affected in all cases, but is known to be very sensitive to warming. We predict that altered precipitation will tend to prevent biocrusts from reaching successional maturity, selecting for M. vaginatus over competing M. steenstrupii, among pioneer biocrust-formers. A shift towards heat-sensitive M. vaginatus could ultimately destabilize biocrusts when precipitation changes are combined with global warming. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Invasion of Old World Phragmites australis in the New World: precipitation and temperature patterns combined with human influences redesign the invasive niche

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Wen-Yong; Lambertini, Carla; Li, Xiu-Zhen


    niches. We suggest that an increase in precipitation in the 20(th) century, global warming and human-made habitats have shaped the invasive niches of the two lineages in the New World. However, as the invasions are on-going and human and natural disturbances occur concomitantly, the future distribution....... australis (Haplotype M and Med) in both their native and introduced ranges using environmental niche models (ENMs) to assess (i) whether a niche shift accompanied the invasions in the New World; (ii) the role of biologically relevant climatic variables and human influence in the process of invasion...... for temperature fluctuations and increased precipitation. The introduced Med lineage has enlarged its original subtropical niche to the tropics-subtropics, invading regions with a high annual mean temperature (> c. 10 °C) and high precipitation in the driest period. Human influence is an important factor for both...

  1. Validation of the space fields and the median zonal of the temperature of the air in surface and of the precipitation in Colombia, simulated by the pattern CCM3 and the data of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal; Leon Aristizabal Gloria Esperanza; Eslava Ramirez, Jesus Antonio


    This work presents an analysis of the basic fields of the surface temperature and the precipitation for the national territory, from two sources of information: the data originated by the national meteorological network and the generated ones at world-wide level by means of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis project for the assimilation of data coming from diverse world-wide networks. With them reference scenes are constructed to validate the CCM3 model which is used like tool for the projection of the climatic change in Colombia

  2. Towards improving the reliability of future regional climate projections: A bias-correction method applied to precipitation over the west coast of Norway (United States)

    Valved, A.; Barstad, I.; Sobolowski, S.


    distribution to that of the observations and adds back the climate signal found in the model run. This bias-correction methodology is applied to the output of a four-member ensemble of a high resolution AGCM (30 km over Norway) plus a control simulation. Point observations from the Bergen area for the control period are used to build "ground truth" pdfs. After the bias-correction method is applied the future climate simulations (2031-2060) are compared to a 30-year control period (1961-1990). The results indicate that this method may lead to more reliable local scale projections for future precipitation change.

  3. 3D-shape of objects with straight line-motion by simultaneous projection of color coded patterns (United States)

    Flores, Jorge L.; Ayubi, Gaston A.; Di Martino, J. Matías; Castillo, Oscar E.; Ferrari, Jose A.


    In this work, we propose a novel technique to retrieve the 3D shape of dynamic objects by the simultaneous projection of a fringe pattern and a homogeneous light pattern which are both coded in two of the color channels of a RGB image. The fringe pattern, red channel, is used to retrieve the phase by phase-shift algorithms with arbitrary phase-step, while the homogeneous pattern, blue channel, is used to match pixels from the test object in consecutive images, which are acquired at different positions, and thus, to determine the speed of the object. The proposed method successfully overcomes the standard requirement of projecting fringes of two different frequencies; one frequency to extract object information and the other one to retrieve the phase. Validation experiments are presented.

  4. Projection of the change in future extremes over Japan using a cloud-resolving model: (2) Precipitation Extremes and the results of the NHM-1km experiments (United States)

    Kanada, S.; Nakano, M.; Nakamura, M.; Hayashi, S.; Kato, T.; Kurihara, K.; Sasaki, H.; Uchiyama, T.; Aranami, K.; Honda, Y.; Kitoh, A.


    In order to study changes in the regional climate in the vicinity of Japan during the summer rainy season due to global warming, experiments by a semi-cloud resolving non-hydrostatic model with a horizontal resolution of 5km (NHM-5km) have been conducted from June to October by nesting within the results of the 10-year time-integrated experiments using a hydrostatic atmospheric general circulation model with a horizontal grid of 20 km (AGCM-20km: TL959L60) for the present and future up to the year 2100. A non-hydrostatic model developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (JMA-NHM; Saito et al. 2001, 2006) was adopted. Detailed descriptions of the NHM-5km are shown by the poster of Nakano et al. Our results show that rainy days over most of the Japanese Islands will decrease in June and July and increase in August and September in the future climate. Especially, remarkable increases in intense precipitations such as larger than 150 - 300 mm/day are projected from the present to future climate. The 90th percentiles of regional largest values among maximum daily precipitations (R-MDPs) grow 156 to 207 mm/day in the present and future climates, respectively. It is well-known that the horizontal distribution of precipitation, especially the heavy rainfall in the vicinity of Japan, much depends on the topography. Therefore, higher resolution experiments by a cloud-resolving model with a horizontal resolution of 1km (NHM-1km) are one-way nested within the results of NHM-5km. The basic frame and design of the NHM-1km is the same as those of the NHM-5km, but the topography is finer and no cumulus parameterization is used in the NHM-1km experiments. The NHM-1km, which treats the convection and cloud microphysics explicitly, can represent not only horizontal distributions of rainfall in detail but also the 3-dimensional structures of meso-beta-scale convective systems (MCSs). Because of the limitation of computation resources, only heavy rainfall events that rank in top

  5. Change In Course Pattern Of The Teesta River: After Effect Of An Engineering Project (United States)

    Ashrafi, Z. M.; Shuvo, S. D.; Mahmud, M. S.


    Bangladesh is blessed by rivers that contribute to country's agriculture, landscape development and water supply. Due to nature of the river's flow and morphology, several engineering project have been initiated to enhance its utility, Teesta barrage was one of them. After two decades of its construction in Northern Bangladesh, several study identified major impacts on local ecosystem due to hindrance in water flow. However, how Teesta River evolved in last 25 years after the barrage construction, has not been quantified yet. This study quantifies the downstream evolution of Teesta River in after-construction period (1990-2015). Time series earth observation satellite (Landsat) data and geo-spatial techniques have been utilized to understand the changes in course pattern. Besides, sinuosity index has been used to quantify it. Analysis shows that the river is becoming more braided with the rise of numerous `Char' areas (islands); as well as bifurcation of the main channel, creating newer channels increasingly. Statistically significant changes in Sinuosity Index (SI) of the Teesta river has found in post construction period. In some locations SI increased which indicate that the river is becoming more and more winding than straight it used to be around 1990. It is also found that the river is shifting towards the east where the number of human settlement is higher. The rate of shifting has accelerated during the 2000s. There are places where the course has moved about 3 kilometers from its earlier course. Therefore, higher number of human settlements are in threat of river bank erosion in recent years. River bank management should be developed considering the pattern of course change so that rural settlement can save from destructive river bank erosion.

  6. The Dietary Patterns Methods Project: Synthesis of Findings across Cohorts and Relevance to Dietary Guidance1234 (United States)

    Liese, Angela D; Krebs-Smith, Susan M; Subar, Amy F; George, Stephanie M; Harmon, Brook E; Neuhouser, Marian L; Boushey, Carol J; Schap, TusaRebecca E; Reedy, Jill


    The Dietary Patterns Methods Project (DPMP) was initiated in 2012 to strengthen research evidence on dietary indices, dietary patterns, and health for upcoming revisions of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, given that the lack of consistent methodology has impeded development of consistent and reliable conclusions. DPMP investigators developed research questions and a standardized approach to index-based dietary analysis. This article presents a synthesis of findings across the cohorts. Standardized analyses were conducted in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study, the Multiethnic Cohort, and the Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study (WHI-OS). Healthy Eating Index 2010, Alternative Healthy Eating Index 2010 (AHEI-2010), alternate Mediterranean Diet, and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) scores were examined across cohorts for correlations between pairs of indices; concordant classifications into index score quintiles; associations with all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer mortality with the use of Cox proportional hazards models; and dietary intake of foods and nutrients corresponding to index quintiles. Across all cohorts in women and men, there was a high degree of correlation and consistent classifications between index pairs. Higher diet quality (top quintile) was significantly and consistently associated with an 11–28% reduced risk of death due to all causes, CVD, and cancer compared with the lowest quintile, independent of known confounders. This was true for all diet index–mortality associations, with the exception of AHEI-2010 and cancer mortality in WHI-OS women. In all cohorts, survival benefit was greater with a higher-quality diet, and relatively small intake differences distinguished the index quintiles. The reductions in mortality risk started at relatively lower levels of diet quality. Higher scores on each of the indices, signifying higher diet quality, were associated with marked reductions in mortality

  7. Precipitation Sedimentation and Advection in GFS (United States)

    Sun, R.; Tallapragada, V.


    Zhao and Carr microphysics scheme as implemented in the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) predicts only the total cloud condensate (cloud water or ice). The precipitation generated in the column fall to the ground instantly. This mean precipitation sedimentation and advection are not considered. As resolution increases the lack of the two physical processes creates problems. The slowly falling precipitation (snow) falls to the wrong surface grid box, which may have led to the observed spotty-precipitation pattern. To solve the problem two prognositic variables, snow and rain, are added. Addition of the two precipitation variable allows their advection. The corresponding sedimentation process are also added. In this study we examine the effect of precipitation advection and sedimentation on the precipitation pattern, associated precipitation skills and clouds.

  8. Patterns of contribution to citizen science biodiversity projects increase understanding of volunteers' recording behaviour. (United States)

    Boakes, Elizabeth H; Gliozzo, Gianfranco; Seymour, Valentine; Harvey, Martin; Smith, Chloë; Roy, David B; Haklay, Muki


    The often opportunistic nature of biological recording via citizen science leads to taxonomic, spatial and temporal biases which add uncertainty to biodiversity estimates. However, such biases may also give valuable insight into volunteers' recording behaviour. Using Greater London as a case-study we examined the composition of three citizen science datasets - from Greenspace Information for Greater London CIC, iSpot and iRecord - with respect to recorder contribution and spatial and taxonomic biases, i.e. when, where and what volunteers record. We found most volunteers contributed few records and were active for just one day. Each dataset had its own taxonomic and spatial signature suggesting that volunteers' personal recording preferences may attract them towards particular schemes. There were also patterns across datasets: species' abundance and ease of identification were positively associated with number of records, as was plant height. We found clear hotspots of recording activity, the 10 most popular sites containing open water. We note that biases are accrued as part of the recording process (e.g. species' detectability) as well as from volunteer preferences. An increased understanding of volunteer behaviour gained from analysing the composition of records could thus enhance the fit between volunteers' interests and the needs of scientific projects.

  9. Warming patterns in regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomez-Navarro, J.J.; Montavez, J.P.; Jimenez-Guerrero, P.; Jerez, S. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Garcia-Valero, J.A. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Delegacion Territorial en Murcia (ES). Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET); Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain). Dept. de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera


    A set of four regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula has been performed. Simulations were driven by two General Circulation Models (consisting of two versions of the same atmospheric model coupled to two different ocean models) under two different SRES scenario. The XXI century has been simulated following a full-transient approach with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5. An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOF) is applied to the monthly mean series of daily maximum and minimum 2-metre temperature to extract the warming signal. The first EOF is able to capture the spatial structure of the warming. The obtained warming patterns are fairly dependent on the month, but hardly change with the tested scenarios and GCM versions. Their shapes are related to geographical parameters, such as distance to the sea and orography. The main differences among simulations mostly concern the temporal evolution of the warming. The temperature trend is stronger for maximum temperatures and depends on the scenario and the driving GCM. This asymmetry, as well as the different warming rates in summer and winter, leads to a continentalization of the climate over the IP. (orig.)

  10. Castration modulates singing patterns and electrophysiological properties of RA projection neurons in adult male zebra finches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Songhua Wang


    Full Text Available Castration can change levels of plasma testosterone. Androgens such as testosterone play an important role in stabilizing birdsong. The robust nucleus of the arcopallium (RA is an important premotor nucleus critical for singing. In this study, we investigated the effect of castration on singing patterns and electrophysiological properties of projection neurons (PNs in the RA of adult male zebra finches. Adult male zebra finches were castrated and the changes in bird song assessed. We also recorded the electrophysiological changes from RA PNs using patch clamp recording. We found that the plasma levels of testosterone were significantly decreased, song syllable’s entropy was increased and the similarity of motif was decreased after castration. Spontaneous and evoked firing rates, membrane time constants, and membrane capacitance of RA PNs in the castration group were lower than those of the control and the sham groups. Afterhyperpolarization AHP time to peak of spontaneous action potential (AP was prolonged after castration.These findings suggest that castration decreases song stereotypy and excitability of RA PNs in male zebra finches.

  11. Vegetation growth patterns on six rock-covered UMTRA Project disposal cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    This study assessed vegetation growth patterns, the potential impacts of vegetation growth on disposal cell cover integrity, and possible measures that could be taken to monitor and/or control plant growth, where necessary, on six Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project rock-covered disposal cells. A large-scale invasion of volunteer plants was observed on the Shiprock and Burrell disposal cells. Plant growth at the South Clive, Green River, and Tuba City disposal cells was sparse except for the south rock apron and south slope of the Tuba City disposal cell, where windblown sand had filled up part of the rock cover and plant growth was observed. The rock-covered topslope of the Collins Ranch disposal cell was intentionally covered with topsoil and vegetated. Plant roots growing on the disposal cells are changing the characteristics of the cover by drying out the radon barrier, encouraging the establishment of soil-building processes in the bedding and radon barrier layers, creating channels in the radon barrier, and facilitating ecological succession, which could lead to the establishment of additional deep-rooted plants on the disposal cells. If left unchecked, plant roots would reach the tailings at the Burrell and Collins Ranch disposal cells within a few years, likely resulting in the transport of contaminants out of the cells

  12. Tests of Micro-Pattern Gaseous Detectors for active target time projection chambers in nuclear physics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pancin, J., E-mail: [GANIL, CEA/DSM-CNRS/IN2P3, Bvd H. Becquerel, Caen (France); Damoy, S.; Perez Loureiro, D. [GANIL, CEA/DSM-CNRS/IN2P3, Bvd H. Becquerel, Caen (France); Chambert, V.; Dorangeville, F. [IPNO, CNRS/IN2P3, Orsay (France); Druillole, F. [CEA, DSM/Irfu/SEDI, Gif-Sur-Yvette (France); Grinyer, G.F. [GANIL, CEA/DSM-CNRS/IN2P3, Bvd H. Becquerel, Caen (France); Lermitage, A.; Maroni, A.; Noël, G. [IPNO, CNRS/IN2P3, Orsay (France); Porte, C.; Roger, T. [GANIL, CEA/DSM-CNRS/IN2P3, Bvd H. Becquerel, Caen (France); Rosier, P. [IPNO, CNRS/IN2P3, Orsay (France); Suen, L. [GANIL, CEA/DSM-CNRS/IN2P3, Bvd H. Becquerel, Caen (France)


    Active target detection systems, where the gas used as the detection medium is also a target for nuclear reactions, have been used for a wide variety of nuclear physics applications since the eighties. Improvements in Micro-Pattern Gaseous Detectors (MPGDs) and in micro-electronics achieved in the last decade permit the development of a new generation of active targets with higher granularity pad planes that allow spatial and time information to be determined with unprecedented accuracy. A novel active target and time projection chamber (ACTAR TPC), that will be used to study reactions and decays of exotic nuclei at facilities such as SPIRAL2, is presently under development and will be based on MPGD technology. Several MPGDs (Micromegas and Thick GEM) coupled to a 2×2 mm{sup 2} pixelated pad plane have been tested and their performances have been determined with different gases over a wide range of pressures. Of particular interest for nuclear physics experiments are the angular and energy resolutions. The angular resolution has been determined to be better than 1° FWHM for short traces of about 4 cm in length and the energy resolution deduced from the particle range was found to be better than 5% for 5.5 MeV α particles. These performances have been compared to Geant4 simulations. These experimental results validate the use of these detectors for several applications in nuclear physics.

  13. Tests of Micro-Pattern Gaseous Detectors for active target time projection chambers in nuclear physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pancin, J.; Damoy, S.; Perez Loureiro, D.; Chambert, V.; Dorangeville, F.; Druillole, F.; Grinyer, G.F.; Lermitage, A.; Maroni, A.; Noël, G.; Porte, C.; Roger, T.; Rosier, P.; Suen, L.


    Active target detection systems, where the gas used as the detection medium is also a target for nuclear reactions, have been used for a wide variety of nuclear physics applications since the eighties. Improvements in Micro-Pattern Gaseous Detectors (MPGDs) and in micro-electronics achieved in the last decade permit the development of a new generation of active targets with higher granularity pad planes that allow spatial and time information to be determined with unprecedented accuracy. A novel active target and time projection chamber (ACTAR TPC), that will be used to study reactions and decays of exotic nuclei at facilities such as SPIRAL2, is presently under development and will be based on MPGD technology. Several MPGDs (Micromegas and Thick GEM) coupled to a 2×2 mm 2 pixelated pad plane have been tested and their performances have been determined with different gases over a wide range of pressures. Of particular interest for nuclear physics experiments are the angular and energy resolutions. The angular resolution has been determined to be better than 1° FWHM for short traces of about 4 cm in length and the energy resolution deduced from the particle range was found to be better than 5% for 5.5 MeV α particles. These performances have been compared to Geant4 simulations. These experimental results validate the use of these detectors for several applications in nuclear physics

  14. Implications of a decrease in the precipitation area for the past and the future (United States)

    Benestad, Rasmus E.


    The total area with 24 hrs precipitation has shrunk by 7% between 50°S–50°N over the period 1998–2016, according to the satellite-based Tropical Rain Measurement Mission data. A decrease in the daily precipitation area is an indication of profound changes in the hydrological cycle, where the global rate of precipitation is balanced by the global rate of evaporation. This decrease was accompanied by increases in total precipitation, evaporation, and wet-day mean precipitation. If these trends are real, then they suggest increased drought frequencies and more intense rainfall. Satellite records, however, may be inhomogeneous because they are synthesised from a number of individual missions with improved technology over time. A linear dependency was also found between the global mean temperature and the 50°S–50°N daily precipitation area with a slope value of ‑17 × 106 km 2/°C. This dependency was used with climate model simulations to make future projections which suggested a continued decrease that will strengthen in the future. The precipitation area evolves differently when the precipitation is accumulated over short and long time scales, however, and there has been a slight increase in the monthly precipitation area while the daily precipitation area decreased. An increase on monthly scale may indicate more pronounced variations in the rainfall patterns due to migrating rain-producing phenomena.

  15. Characteristics of autumn-winter extreme precipitation on the Norwegian west coast identified by cluster analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heikkilae, U. [Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Uni Bjerknes Centre, Bergen (Norway); Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), Lucas Heights, NSW (Australia); Sorteberg, A. [University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute, Bergen (Norway); University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)


    Extremely high autumn and winter precipitation events on the European west coast are often driven by low-pressure systems in the North Atlantic. Climate projections suggest the number and intensity of these events is likely to increase far more than the mean precipitation. In this study we investigate the autumn-winter extreme precipitation on the Norwegian west coast and the connection between its spatial distribution and sea level pressure (SLP) patterns using the k-means cluster analysis. We use three relatively high resolved downscalings of one global coupled model: the Arpege global atmospheric model (stretched grid with 35-km horizontal resolution over Norway) and the WRF-downscaled Arpege model (30 and 10-km) for the 30-year periods of 1961-1990 and 2021-2050. The cluster analysis finds three main SLP patterns responsible for extreme precipitation in different parts of the country. The SLP patterns found are similar to the NAO positive pattern known to strengthen the westerly flow towards European coast. We then apply the method to investigate future change in extreme precipitation. We find an increase in the number of days with extreme precipitation of 15, 39 and 35% in the two simulations (Arpege 35-km and WRF 30 and 10-km, respectively). We do not find evidence of a significant change in the frequency of weather patterns between the present and the future periods. Rather, it is the probability of a given weather pattern to cause extreme precipitation which is increased in the future, probably due to higher temperatures and an increased moisture content of the air. The WRF model predicts the increase in this probability caused by the most important SLP patterns to be >50%. The Arpege model does not predict such a significant change because the general increase in extreme precipitation predicted is smaller, probably due to its coarser resolution over ocean which leads to smoother representation of the low pressure systems. (orig.)

  16. Assessing changes in extreme convective precipitation from a damage perspective (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.


    Projected increases in high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to which, not only are extreme events rare, but such small scale events are likely to be underreported where they don't coincide with the observation network. Rather than focus solely on the convective precipitation, understanding the characteristics of these extremes which drive damage may be more effective to assess future risks. Two sources of data are used in this study. First, sub-daily precipitation observations over the Southern Alps enable an examination of seasonal and regional patterns in high-intensity convective precipitation and their relationship with weather types. Secondly, reports of private loss and damage on a household scale are used to identify which events are most damaging, or what conditions potentially enhance the vulnerability to these extremes.This study explores the potential added value from including recorded loss and damage data to understand the risks from summertime convective precipitation events. By relating precipitation generating weather types to the severity of damage we hope to develop a mechanism to assess future risks. A further benefit would be to identify from damage reports the likely occurrence of precipitation extremes where no direct observations are available and use this information to validate remotely sensed observations.

  17. System and technique for retrieving depth information about a surface by projecting a composite image of modulated light patterns (United States)

    Hassebrook, Laurence G. (Inventor); Lau, Daniel L. (Inventor); Guan, Chun (Inventor)


    A technique, associated system and program code, for retrieving depth information about at least one surface of an object, such as an anatomical feature. Core features include: projecting a composite image comprising a plurality of modulated structured light patterns, at the anatomical feature; capturing an image reflected from the surface; and recovering pattern information from the reflected image, for each of the modulated structured light patterns. Pattern information is preferably recovered for each modulated structured light pattern used to create the composite, by performing a demodulation of the reflected image. Reconstruction of the surface can be accomplished by using depth information from the recovered patterns to produce a depth map/mapping thereof. Each signal waveform used for the modulation of a respective structured light pattern, is distinct from each of the other signal waveforms used for the modulation of other structured light patterns of a composite image; these signal waveforms may be selected from suitable types in any combination of distinct signal waveforms, provided the waveforms used are uncorrelated with respect to each other. The depth map/mapping to be utilized in a host of applications, for example: displaying a 3-D view of the object; virtual reality user-interaction interface with a computerized device; face--or other animal feature or inanimate object--recognition and comparison techniques for security or identification purposes; and 3-D video teleconferencing/telecollaboration.

  18. Teale Precipitation (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — California Spatial Information System (CaSIL) is a project designed to improve access to geo-spatial and geo-spatial related data information throughout the state of...

  19. On the use of model-based microphysics-lightning relationships for constraining passive-microwave precipitation retrieval from space using lightning data: Application to case studies of the EU FLASH project (United States)

    Formenton, Marco; Casella, Daniele; Dietrich, Stefano; di Paola, Francesco; Mugnai, Alberto; Sanò, Paolo


    Within the FLASH project, we use the 1.5-dimensional Explicit Microphysics Thunderstorm Model (EMTM) to generate quantitative relationships between the microphysical and electrification properties of thunderstorms, that are then utilized as classification criteria within our Bayesian precipitation retrieval algorithm so as to help cloud profile selection by means of lightning data. In this paper, we describe the rationale of this approach and discuss the results of its application to some storms that occurred over central Italy during autumn 2008 and that have been considered within the FLASH project.

  20. High-speed scanning stroboscopic fringe-pattern projection technology for three-dimensional shape precision measurement. (United States)

    Yang, Guowei; Sun, Changku; Wang, Peng; Xu, Yixin


    A high-speed scanning stroboscopic fringe-pattern projection system is designed. A high-speed rotating polygon mirror and a line-structured laser cooperate to produce stable and unambiguous stroboscopic fringe patterns. The system combines the rapidity of the grating projection with the high accuracy of the line-structured laser light source. The fringe patterns have fast frame rate, great density, high precision, and high brightness, with convenience and accuracy in adjusting brightness, frequency, linewidth, and the amount of phase shift. The characteristics and the stability of this system are verified by experiments. Experimental results show that the finest linewidth can reach 40 μm and that the minimum fringe cycle is 80 μm. Circuit modulation makes the light source system flexibly adjustable, easy to control in real time, and convenient to project various fringe patterns. Combined with different light intensity adjustment algorithms and 3D computation models, the 3D topography with high accuracy can be obtained for objects measured under different environments or objects with different sizes, morphologies, and optical properties. The proposed system shows a broad application prospect for fast 3D shape precision measurements, particularly in the industrial field of 3D online detection for precision devices.

  1. Acidity of Scandinavian precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrett, E; Bordin, G


    Data on the pH of the total monthly precipitation at stations of a Swedish network for sampling and chemical analysis of precipitation and atmospheric aerosols during the year July 1953 to June 1954 are presented and discussed, together with the pH data from the first two months of operation of a large pan-Scandinavian net. It is found that well-defined regions of acidity and alkalinity relative to the pH of water in equilibrium with atmospheric carbon dioxide exist, and that these regions persist to such an extent that the monthly deviations from the pattern of the annual mean pH at stations unaffected by local pollution show persistently high acidity, while inland northern stations show equally persistent alkalinity. Some possible reasons for the observed distributions are considered.

  2. Invasion of Old World Phragmites australis in the New World: precipitation and temperature patterns combined with human influences redesign the invasive niche. (United States)

    Guo, Wen-Yong; Lambertini, Carla; Li, Xiu-Zhen; Meyerson, Laura A; Brix, Hans


    After its introduction into North America, Euro-Asian Phragmites australis became an aggressive invasive wetland grass along the Atlantic coast of North America. Its distribution range has since expanded to the middle, south and southwest of North America, where invasive P. australis has replaced millions of hectares of native plants in inland and tidal wetlands. Another P. australis invasion from the Mediterranean region is simultaneously occurring in the Gulf region of the United States and some countries in South America. Here, we analysed the occurrence records of the two Old World invasive lineages of P. australis (Haplotype M and Med) in both their native and introduced ranges using environmental niche models (ENMs) to assess (i) whether a niche shift accompanied the invasions in the New World; (ii) the role of biologically relevant climatic variables and human influence in the process of invasion; and (iii) the current potential distribution of these two lineages. We detected local niche shifts along the East Coast of North America and the Gulf Coast of the United States for Haplotype M and around the Mississippi Delta and Florida of the United States for Med. The new niche of the introduced Haplotype M accounts for temperature fluctuations and increased precipitation. The introduced Med lineage has enlarged its original subtropical niche to the tropics-subtropics, invading regions with a high annual mean temperature (> ca. 10 °C) and high precipitation in the driest period. Human influence is an important factor for both niches. We suggest that an increase in precipitation in the 20th century, global warming and human-made habitats have shaped the invasive niches of the two lineages in the New World. However, as the invasions are ongoing and human and natural disturbances occur concomitantly, the future distribution ranges of the two lineages may diverge from the potential distribution ranges detected in this study. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. STAMMEX high resolution gridded daily precipitation dataset over Germany: a new potential for regional precipitation climate research (United States)

    Zolina, Olga; Simmer, Clemens; Kapala, Alice; Mächel, Hermann; Gulev, Sergey; Groisman, Pavel


    We present new high resolution precipitation daily grids developed at Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn and German Weather Service (DWD) under the STAMMEX project (Spatial and Temporal Scales and Mechanisms of Extreme Precipitation Events over Central Europe). Daily precipitation grids have been developed from the daily-observing precipitation network of DWD, which runs one of the World's densest rain gauge networks comprising more than 7500 stations. Several quality-controlled daily gridded products with homogenized sampling were developed covering the periods 1931-onwards (with 0.5 degree resolution), 1951-onwards (0.25 degree and 0.5 degree), and 1971-2000 (0.1 degree). Different methods were tested to select the best gridding methodology that minimizes errors of integral grid estimates over hilly terrain. Besides daily precipitation values with uncertainty estimates (which include standard estimates of the kriging uncertainty as well as error estimates derived by a bootstrapping algorithm), the STAMMEX data sets include a variety of statistics that characterize temporal and spatial dynamics of the precipitation distribution (quantiles, extremes, wet/dry spells, etc.). Comparisons with existing continental-scale daily precipitation grids (e.g., CRU, ECA E-OBS, GCOS) which include considerably less observations compared to those used in STAMMEX, demonstrate the added value of high-resolution grids for extreme rainfall analyses. These data exhibit spatial variability pattern and trends in precipitation extremes, which are missed or incorrectly reproduced over Central Europe from coarser resolution grids based on sparser networks. The STAMMEX dataset can be used for high-quality climate diagnostics of precipitation variability, as a reference for reanalyses and remotely-sensed precipitation products (including the upcoming Global Precipitation Mission products), and for input into regional climate and operational weather forecast models. We will present

  4. CMIP5 model simulations of Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation: current climate and future changes (United States)

    Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Ballard, Tristan; Sun, Ge; Jeuland, Marc


    Kiremt-season (June-September) precipitation provides a significant water supply for Ethiopia, particularly in the central and northern regions. The response of Kiremt-season precipitation to climate change is thus of great concern to water resource managers. However, the complex processes that control Kiremt-season precipitation challenge the capability of general circulation models (GCMs) to accurately simulate precipitation amount and variability. This in turn raises questions about their utility for predicting future changes. This study assesses the impact of climate change on Kiremt-season precipitation using state-of-the-art GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Compared to models with a coarse resolution, high-resolution models (horizontal resolution <2°) can more accurately simulate precipitation, most likely due to their ability to capture precipitation induced by topography. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, these high-resolution models project an increase in precipitation over central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia, but a decrease in precipitation over the southern part of the country. Such a dipole pattern is attributable to the intensification of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) in a warmer climate, which influences Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation mainly by modulating atmospheric vertical motion. Diagnosis of the omega equation demonstrates that an intensified NASH increases (decreases) the advection of warm air and positive vorticity into the central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley (southern part of the country), enhancing upward motion over the northern Rift Valley but decreasing elsewhere. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the high-resolution models project an intensification of the NASH by 15 (3 × 105 m2 s-2) geopotential meters (stream function) at the 850-hPa level, contributing to the projected precipitation change over Ethiopia. The

  5. How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble (United States)

    Yettella, Vineel; Kay, Jennifer E.


    The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics.

  6. Alternative Work Patterns: Implications for Worklife Education and Training. Worker Education and Training Policies Project. (United States)

    Shore, Jane

    This monograph explores the major categories of alternative work patterns, e.g., flexitime, permanent part-time employment, job sharing, the compressed work week, and reduced work time. Advantages and disadvantages of each type are discussed, and new insight is offered into an unexplored dimension of the major types of alternative work patterns:…

  7. Sources of uncertainty in future changes in local precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowell, David P. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)


    This study considers the large uncertainty in projected changes in local precipitation. It aims to map, and begin to understand, the relative roles of uncertain modelling and natural variability, using 20-year mean data from four perturbed physics or multi-model ensembles. The largest - 280-member - ensemble illustrates a rich pattern in the varying contribution of modelling uncertainty, with similar features found using a CMIP3 ensemble (despite its limited sample size, which restricts it value in this context). The contribution of modelling uncertainty to the total uncertainty in local precipitation change is found to be highest in the deep tropics, particularly over South America, Africa, the east and central Pacific, and the Atlantic. In the moist maritime tropics, the highly uncertain modelling of sea-surface temperature changes is transmitted to a large uncertain modelling of local rainfall changes. Over tropical land and summer mid-latitude continents (and to a lesser extent, the tropical oceans), uncertain modelling of atmospheric processes, land surface processes and the terrestrial carbon cycle all appear to play an additional substantial role in driving the uncertainty of local rainfall changes. In polar regions, inter-model variability of anomalous sea ice drives an uncertain precipitation response, particularly in winter. In all these regions, there is therefore the potential to reduce the uncertainty of local precipitation changes through targeted model improvements and observational constraints. In contrast, over much of the arid subtropical and mid-latitude oceans, over Australia, and over the Sahara in winter, internal atmospheric variability dominates the uncertainty in projected precipitation changes. Here, model improvements and observational constraints will have little impact on the uncertainty of time means shorter than at least 20 years. Last, a supplementary application of the metric developed here is that it can be interpreted as a measure

  8. Analysis of Students' Participation Patterns and Learning Presence in a Wiki-Based Project (United States)

    Roussinos, Dimitrios; Jimoyiannis, Athanassios


    The educational applications of wikis are becoming very popular among instructors and researchers and they have captured their attention and imagination. This paper reports on the investigation of a wiki project designed to support university students' collaborative authoring and learning. The design framework of the wiki-based project is outlined…

  9. Predictability of Precipitation Over the Conterminous U.S. Based on the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble (United States)

    Jiang, Mingkai; Felzer, Benjamin S.; Sahagian, Dork


    Characterizing precipitation seasonality and variability in the face of future uncertainty is important for a well-informed climate change adaptation strategy. Using the Colwell index of predictability and monthly normalized precipitation data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensembles, this study identifies spatial hotspots of changes in precipitation predictability in the United States under various climate scenarios. Over the historic period (1950–2005), the recurrent pattern of precipitation is highly predictable in the East and along the coastal Northwest, and is less so in the arid Southwest. Comparing the future (2040–2095) to the historic period, larger changes in precipitation predictability are observed under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 than those under RCP 4.5. Finally, there are region-specific hotspots of future changes in precipitation predictability, and these hotspots often coincide with regions of little projected change in total precipitation, with exceptions along the wetter East and parts of the drier central West. Therefore, decision-makers are advised to not rely on future total precipitation as an indicator of water resources. Changes in precipitation predictability and the subsequent changes on seasonality and variability are equally, if not more, important factors to be included in future regional environmental assessment. PMID:27425819

  10. Biochemical acclimation, stomatal limitation and precipitation patterns underlie decreases in photosynthetic stimulation of soybean (Glycine max) at elevated [CO₂] and temperatures under fully open air field conditions. (United States)

    Rosenthal, David M; Ruiz-Vera, Ursula M; Siebers, Matthew H; Gray, Sharon B; Bernacchi, Carl J; Ort, Donald R


    The net effect of elevated [CO2] and temperature on photosynthetic acclimation and plant productivity is poorly resolved. We assessed the effects of canopy warming and fully open air [CO2] enrichment on (1) the acclimation of two biochemical parameters that frequently limit photosynthesis (A), the maximum carboxylation capacity of Rubisco (Vc,max) and the maximum potential linear electron flux through photosystem II (Jmax), (2) the associated responses of leaf structural and chemical properties related to A, as well as (3) the stomatal limitation (l) imposed on A, for soybean over two growing seasons in a conventionally managed agricultural field in Illinois, USA. Acclimation to elevated [CO2] was consistent over two growing seasons with respect to Vc,max and Jmax. However, elevated temperature significantly decreased Jmax contributing to lower photosynthetic stimulation by elevated CO2. Large seasonal differences in precipitation altered soil moisture availability modulating the complex effects of elevated temperature and CO2 on biochemical and structural properties related to A. Elevated temperature also reduced the benefit of elevated [CO2] by eliminating decreases in stomatal limitation at elevated [CO2]. These results highlight the critical importance of considering multiple environmental factors (i.e. temperature, moisture, [CO2]) when trying to predict plant productivity in the context of climate change. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Diversity of dietary patterns observed in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slimani, N.; Fahey, M.; Welch, A.A.


    differences were observed across centres, the countries participating in EPIC are characterised by specific dietary patterns. Overall, Italy and Greece have a dietary pattern characterised by plant foods (except potatoes) and a lower consumption of animal and processed foods, compared with the other EPIC...... countries. France and particularly Spain have more heterogeneous dietary patterns, with a relatively high consumption of both plant foods and animal products. Apart from characteristics specific to vegetarian groups, the UK 'health-conscious' group shares with the UK general population a relatively high...... consumption of tea, sauces, cakes, soft drinks (women), margarine and butter. In contrast, the diet in the Nordic countries, The Netherlands, Germany and the UK general population is relatively high in potatoes and animal, processed and sweetened/refined foods, with proportions varying across countries...

  12. Spatial patterns of carbon, biodiversity, deforestation threat, and REDD+ projects in Indonesia. (United States)

    Murray, Josil P; Grenyer, Richard; Wunder, Sven; Raes, Niels; Jones, Julia P G


    There are concerns that Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) may fail to deliver potential biodiversity cobenefits if it is focused on high carbon areas. We explored the spatial overlaps between carbon stocks, biodiversity, projected deforestation threats, and the location of REDD+ projects in Indonesia, a tropical country at the forefront of REDD+ development. For biodiversity, we assembled data on the distribution of terrestrial vertebrates (ranges of amphibians, mammals, birds, reptiles) and plants (species distribution models for 8 families). We then investigated congruence between different measures of biodiversity richness and carbon stocks at the national and subnational scales. Finally, we mapped active REDD+ projects and investigated the carbon density and potential biodiversity richness and modeled deforestation pressures within these forests relative to protected areas and unprotected forests. There was little internal overlap among the different hotspots (richest 10% of cells) of species richness. There was also no consistent spatial congruence between carbon stocks and the biodiversity measures: a weak negative correlation at the national scale masked highly variable and nonlinear relationships island by island. Current REDD+ projects were preferentially located in areas with higher total species richness and threatened species richness but lower carbon densities than protected areas and unprotected forests. Although a quarter of the total area of these REDD+ projects is under relatively high deforestation pressure, the majority of the REDD+ area is not. In Indonesia at least, first-generation REDD+ projects are located where they are likely to deliver biodiversity benefits. However, if REDD+ is to deliver additional gains for climate and biodiversity, projects will need to focus on forests with the highest threat to deforestation, which will have cost implications for future REDD+ implementation. © 2015 The Authors

  13. Diversity of dietary patterns observed in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slimani, N.; Fahey, M.; Welch, A.A.


    countries. France and particularly Spain have more heterogeneous dietary patterns, with a relatively high consumption of both plant foods and animal products. Apart from characteristics specific to vegetarian groups, the UK 'health-conscious' group shares with the UK general population a relatively high....../centres. In these countries, consumption of vegetables and fruit is similar to, or below, the overall EPIC means, and is low for legumes and vegetable oils. Overall, dietary patterns were similar for men and women, although there were large gender differences for certain food groups. CONCLUSIONS: There are considerable...

  14. Diversity of dietary patterns observed in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slimani, N.; Fahey, M.; Welch, A.A.; Wirfalt, E.; Stripp, C.; Bergstrom, E.; Linseisen, J.; Schulze, M.B.; Bamia, C.; Chloptsios, Y.; Veglia, F.; Panico, S.; Bueno de Mesquita, B.; Ocké, M.C.; Brustadt, M.; Lund, E.; Gonzalez, C.A.; Barcos, A.; Berglund, G.; Winkvist, A.; Mulligan, A.; Appleby, P.; Overvad, K.; Tjonneland, A.; Clavel-Chapelon, F.; Kesse, E.; Ferrari, P.; Staveren, van W.A.; Riboli, E.


    Objective: To describe the diversity in dietary patterns existing across centres/regions participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Design and setting: Single 24-hour dietary recall measurements were obtained by means of standardised face-to-face

  15. Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate (United States)

    Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.


    Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations

  16. Cortical projection patterns of magnocellular basal nucleus subdivisions as revealed by anterogradely transported Phaseolus vulgaris leucoagglutinin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luiten, P.G.M.; Gaykema, R.P.A.; Traber, J.; Spencer Jr., D.G.


    The present paper deals with a detailed analysis of cortical projections from the magnocellular basal nucleus (MBN) and horizontal limb of the diagonal band of Broca (HDB) in the rat. The MBN and HDB were injected iontophoretically with the anterograde tracer Phaseolus vulgaris leucoagglutinin

  17. Sensitivity Analysis of Snow Patterns in Swiss Ski Resorts to Shifts in Temperature, Precipitation and Humidity Under Condition of Climate Change (United States)

    Uhlmann, B.; Goyette, S.; Beniston, M.


    The value of snow as a resource has considerably increased in Swiss mountain regions, in particular in the context of winter tourism. In the perspective of a warming climate, it is thus important to quantify the potential changes in snow amount and duration that could have large repercussions on the economy of ski resorts. Because of the fine spatial variability of snow, the use of a Surface Energy Balance Model (SEBM) is adequate to simulate local snow cover evolution. A perturbation method has been developed to generate plausible future meteorological input data required for SEBM simulations in order to assess the changes in snow cover patterns. Current and future snow depths have also been simulated within the ski areas themselves. The results show a large decrease of the snow depths and duration, even at high elevation in a warmer climate and emphasize the sensitivity of snow to topographical characteristics of the resorts. The study highlights the fact that not only the altitude of a domain but also its exposure, localization inland and slope gradients need to be taken into account when evaluating current and future snow depths. This method enables a precise assessment of the snow pattern over a small area.

  18. Patterns of alcohol consumption in 10 European countries participating in the EPIC project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sieri, S.; Agudo, A.; Kesse, E.


    , are characterised by widely differing drinking habits and frequencies of alcohol-related diseases. Methods: We collected a single standardised 24-hour dietary recall per subject from a random sample of the EPIC cohort (36 900 persons initially and 35 955 after exclusion of subjects under 35 and over 74 years of age......). This provided detailed information on the distribution of alcohol consumption during the day in relation to main meals, and was used to determine weekly consumption patterns. The crude and adjusted (by age, day of week and season) means of total ethanol consumption and consumption according to type of beverage...... were stratified by centre and sex. Results: Sex was a strong determinant of drinking patterns in all 10 countries. The highest total alcohol consumption was observed in the Spanish centres (San Sebastian, 41.4 g day−1) for men and in Danish centres (Copenhagen, 20.9 g day−1) for women. The lowest total...

  19. Neural network based pattern matching and spike detection tools and services--in the CARMEN neuroinformatics project. (United States)

    Fletcher, Martyn; Liang, Bojian; Smith, Leslie; Knowles, Alastair; Jackson, Tom; Jessop, Mark; Austin, Jim


    In the study of information flow in the nervous system, component processes can be investigated using a range of electrophysiological and imaging techniques. Although data is difficult and expensive to produce, it is rarely shared and collaboratively exploited. The Code Analysis, Repository and Modelling for e-Neuroscience (CARMEN) project addresses this challenge through the provision of a virtual neuroscience laboratory: an infrastructure for sharing data, tools and services. Central to the CARMEN concept are federated CARMEN nodes, which provide: data and metadata storage, new, thirdparty and legacy services, and tools. In this paper, we describe the CARMEN project as well as the node infrastructure and an associated thick client tool for pattern visualisation and searching, the Signal Data Explorer (SDE). We also discuss new spike detection methods, which are central to the services provided by CARMEN. The SDE is a client application which can be used to explore data in the CARMEN repository, providing data visualization, signal processing and a pattern matching capability. It performs extremely fast pattern matching and can be used to search for complex conditions composed of many different patterns across the large datasets that are typical in neuroinformatics. Searches can also be constrained by specifying text based metadata filters. Spike detection services which use wavelet and morphology techniques are discussed, and have been shown to outperform traditional thresholding and template based systems. A number of different spike detection and sorting techniques will be deployed as services within the CARMEN infrastructure, to allow users to benchmark their performance against a wide range of reference datasets.

  20. Fundamental remote science research program. Part 2: Status report of the mathematical pattern recognition and image analysis project (United States)

    Heydorn, R. P.


    The Mathematical Pattern Recognition and Image Analysis (MPRIA) Project is concerned with basic research problems related to the study of he Earth from remotely sensed measurements of its surface characteristics. The program goal is to better understand how to analyze the digital image that represents the spatial, spectral, and temporal arrangement of these measurements for purposing of making selected inferences about the Earth. This report summarizes the progress that has been made toward this program goal by each of the principal investigators in the MPRIA Program.

  1. Structural sensitivity of x-ray Bragg projection ptychography to domain patterns in epitaxial thin films

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hruszkewycz, S. O.; Zhang, Q.; Holt, M. V.; Highland, M. J.


    Bragg projection ptychography (BPP) is a coherent diffraction imaging technique capable of mapping the spatial distribution of the Bragg structure factor in nanostructured thin films. Here, we show that, because these images are projections, the structural sensitivity of the resulting images depends on the film thickness and the aspect ratio and orientation of the features of interest and that image interpretation depends on these factors. Lastly, we model changes in contrast in the BPP reconstructions of simulated PbTiO_3 ferroelectric thin films with meandering 180° stripe domains as a function of film thickness, discuss their origin, and comment on the implication of these factors on the design of BPP experiments of general nanostructured films.

  2. Differential regulation of microtubule severing by APC underlies distinct patterns of projection neuron and interneuron migration (United States)

    Eom, Tae-Yeon; Stanco, Amelia; Guo, Jiami; Wilkins, Gary; Deslauriers, Danielle; Yan, Jessica; Monckton, Chase; Blair, Josh; Oon, Eesim; Perez, Abby; Salas, Eduardo; Oh, Adrianna; Ghukasyan, Vladimir; Snider, William D.; Rubenstein, John L. R.; Anton, E. S.


    Coordinated migration of distinct classes of neurons to appropriate positions leads to the formation of functional neuronal circuitry in the cerebral cortex. Two major classes of cortical neurons, interneurons and projection neurons, utilize distinctly different modes (radial vs. tangential) and routes of migration to arrive at their final positions in the cerebral cortex. Here, we show that adenomatous polyposis coli (APC) modulates microtubule (MT) severing in interneurons to facilitate tangential mode of interneuron migration, but not the glial-guided, radial migration of projection neurons. APC regulates the stability and activity of the MT severing protein p60-katanin in interneurons to promote the rapid remodeling of neuronal processes necessary for interneuron migration. These findings reveal how severing and restructuring of MTs facilitate distinct modes of neuronal migration necessary for laminar organization of neurons in the developing cerebral cortex. PMID:25535916

  3. Descending brain neurons in larval lamprey: Spinal projection patterns and initiation of locomotion (United States)

    Shaw, Albert C.; Jackson, Adam W.; Holmes, Tamra; Thurman, Suzie; Davis, G.R.; McClellan, Andrew D.


    In larval lamprey, partial lesions were made in the rostral spinal cord to determine which spinal tracts are important for descending activation of locomotion and to identify descending brain neurons that project in these tracts. In whole animals and in vitro brain/spinal cord preparations, brain-initiated spinal locomotor activity was present when the lateral or intermediate spinal tracts were spared but usually was abolished when the medial tracts were spared. We previously showed that descending brain neurons are located in eleven cell groups, including reticulospinal (RS) neurons in the mesenecephalic reticular nucleus (MRN) as well as the anterior (ARRN), middle (MRRN), and posterior (PRRN) rhombencephalic reticular nuclei. Other descending brain neurons are located in the diencephalic (Di) as well as the anterolateral (ALV), dorsolateral (DLV), and posterolateral (PLV) vagal groups. In the present study, the Mauthner and auxillary Mauthner cells, most neurons in the Di, ALV, DLV, and PLV cell groups, and some neurons in the ARRN and PRRN had crossed descending axons. The majority of neurons projecting in medial spinal tracts included large identified Müller cells and neurons in the Di, MRN, ALV, and DLV. Axons of individual descending brain neurons usually did not switch spinal tracts, have branches in multiple tracts, or cross the midline within the rostral cord. Most neurons that projected in the lateral/intermediate spinal tracts were in the ARRN, MRRN, and PRRN. Thus, output neurons of the locomotor command system are distributed in several reticular nuclei, whose neurons project in relatively wide areas of the cord. PMID:20510243

  4. The Impact of PMIS Training: Patterns of Benefit Realization in Project Management Information Systems Training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew McCarty


    Full Text Available The benefits of project, program, and portfolio management software toolsets can be enhanced through training. Little is known about the realization of positive, beneficial outcomes and Project Management Information System (PMIS training. This research seeks to improve understanding of project management software toolset training practices and outcomes. This study examines the prevalence, effectiveness, and impact-per-hour efficiency of training in real-world organizations. We further explore relationships between individual and organizational characteristics and training outcomes. Formulae for estimating training costs are derived using regression modeling. Surveys were collected from 1,021 active professionals and analyzed using quantitative methods. Research participants were practitioners recruited by eight different companies, industry groups, and professional organizations within the PMIS community. The findings of this research indicate significant differences in utilization, efficacy, and efficiency of PMIS training in practice. The outcomes and methodologies of this study are being incorporated into ongoing research that focuses on improving PMIS training delivery, evaluation, and planning. The outcomes of this research may result in more effective, efficient, and economical PMIS training that is better tailored to the unique needs of each organization.

  5. Dietary indexes, food patterns and incidence of metabolic syndrome in a Mediterranean cohort: The SUN project. (United States)

    Pimenta, Adriano M; Toledo, Estefanía; Rodriguez-Diez, Maria C; Gea, Alfredo; Lopez-Iracheta, Roberto; Shivappa, Nitin; Hébert, James R; Martinez-Gonzalez, Miguel A


    We prospectively assessed the association between adherence to several a priori defined healthy food patterns and risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS). We assessed 6851 participants of a Spanish dynamic prospective cohort of university graduates, initially free of any MetS-specific definition criteria, and followed-up for a median of 8.3 years. We calculated the adherence to thirteen different a priori defined food patterns or dietary indexes. MetS was classified according to the updated harmonizing criteria. We estimated multivariable-adjusted Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) of metabolic syndrome and their 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI), using Poisson regression models. The cumulative incidence of MetS was 5.0%. Moderate adherence to the Pro-Vegetarian Diet (PVEG) was significantly associated with a lower risk for developing MetS (IRR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.59-0.97). Among women, an inverse association with the PVEG was significant not only for a moderate adherence (IRR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.36-0.82), but also for higher adherence (IRR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.43-0.93). A higher adherence to the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet showed an inverse association with the MetS among participants, but only if they had low alcohol intake (RR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.20-0.85). Our findings support the adoption of a PVEG dietary pattern for the reduction of MetS risk. The same statement can be applied in relation to the DASH diet, insofar a limited consumption of alcoholic beverages is also maintained. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  6. Exploratory Cluster Analysis to Identify Patterns of Chronic Kidney Disease in the 500 Cities Project. (United States)

    Liu, Shelley H; Li, Yan; Liu, Bian


    Chronic kidney disease is a leading cause of death in the United States. We used cluster analysis to explore patterns of chronic kidney disease in 500 of the largest US cities. After adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics, we found that unhealthy behaviors, prevention measures, and health outcomes related to chronic kidney disease differ between cities in Utah and those in the rest of the United States. Cluster analysis can be useful for identifying geographic regions that may have important policy implications for preventing chronic kidney disease.

  7. Evaluation of CMIP5 continental precipitation simulations relative to satellite-based gauge-adjusted observations (United States)

    Mehran, A.; AghaKouchak, A.; Phillips, T. J.


    The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, quantifying model pattern discrepancies, and biases for both entire distributions and their upper tails. The results of the volumetric hit index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas but that their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain subcontinental regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, and central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multimodel ensemble mean and median also are superior to that of the individual CMIP5 models. However, at high quantiles of reference data (75th and 90th percentiles), all climate models display low skill in simulating precipitation, except over North America, the Amazon, and Central Africa. Analyses of total bias (B) in CMIP5 simulations reveal that most models overestimate precipitation over regions of complex topography (e.g., western North and South America and southern Africa and Asia), while underestimating it over arid regions. Also, while most climate model simulations show low biases over Europe, intermodel variations in bias over Australia and Amazonia are considerable. The quantile bias analyses indicate that CMIP5 simulations are even more biased at high quantiles of precipitation. It is found that a simple mean field bias removal improves the overall B and VHI values but does not make a significant improvement at high quantiles of precipitation.

  8. Comparison of past and future Mediterranean high and low extremes of precipitation and river flow projected using different statistical downscaling methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Quintana-Seguí


    Full Text Available The extremes of precipitation and river flow obtained using three different statistical downscaling methods applied to the same regional climate simulation have been compared. The methods compared are the anomaly method, quantile mapping and a weather typing. The hydrological model used in the study is distributed and it is applied to the Mediterranean basins of France. The study shows that both quantile mapping and weather typing methods are able to reproduce the high and low precipitation extremes in the region of interest. The study also shows that when the hydrological model is forced with these downscaled data, there are important differences in the outputs. This shows that the model amplifies the differences and that the downscaling of other atmospheric variables might be very relevant when simulating river discharges. In terms of river flow, the method of the anomalies, which is very simple, performs better than expected. The methods produce qualitatively similar future scenarios of the extremes of river flow. However, quantitatively, there are still significant differences between them for each individual gauging station. According to these scenarios, it is expected that in the middle of the 21st century (2035–2064, the monthly low flows will have diminished almost everywhere in the region of our study by as much as 20 %. Regarding high flows, there will be important increases in the area of the Cévennes, which is already seriously affected by flash-floods. For some gauging stations in this area, the frequency of what was a 10-yr return flood at the end of the 20th century is expected to increase, with such return floods then occurring every two years in the middle of the 21st century. Similarly, the 10-yr return floods at that time are expected to carry 100 % more water than the 10-yr return floods experienced at the end of the 20th century. In the northern part of the Rhône basin, these extremes will be reduced.

  9. Global Precipitation Analyses at Time Scales of Monthly to 3-Hourly (United States)

    Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)


    Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

  10. Nurses experience of aromatherapy use with dementia patients experiencing disturbed sleep patterns. An action research project. (United States)

    Johannessen, Berit


    The purpose of this study was to gain an insight into nurses' experiences of incorporating aromatherapy into the care of residents suffering from dementia, anxiety and disturbed sleep patterns. Twenty-four residents and twelve nurses from four nursing homes participated in an action research study. The use of lavender augustofolia essential oil diffused nightly was perceived as an effective care modality reducing insomnia and anxiety in this patient cohort. Nurses experienced some negative attitudes among colleagues because they considered aromatherapy as not evidence based. Nurses require greater access to evidence based use of Aromatherapy. Further research is needed to study how smell can enhance dementia care. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Inkjet printing-based volumetric display projecting multiple full-colour 2D patterns (United States)

    Hirayama, Ryuji; Suzuki, Tomotaka; Shimobaba, Tomoyoshi; Shiraki, Atsushi; Naruse, Makoto; Nakayama, Hirotaka; Kakue, Takashi; Ito, Tomoyoshi


    In this study, a method to construct a full-colour volumetric display is presented using a commercially available inkjet printer. Photoreactive luminescence materials are minutely and automatically printed as the volume elements, and volumetric displays are constructed with high resolution using easy-to-fabricate means that exploit inkjet printing technologies. The results experimentally demonstrate the first prototype of an inkjet printing-based volumetric display composed of multiple layers of transparent films that yield a full-colour three-dimensional (3D) image. Moreover, we propose a design algorithm with 3D structures that provide multiple different 2D full-colour patterns when viewed from different directions and experimentally demonstrate prototypes. It is considered that these types of 3D volumetric structures and their fabrication methods based on widely deployed existing printing technologies can be utilised as novel information display devices and systems, including digital signage, media art, entertainment and security.

  12. Spatial patterns of carbon, biodiversity, deforestation threat, and REDD+ projects in Indonesia (United States)

    Murray, Josil P; Grenyer, Richard; Wunder, Sven; Raes, Niels; Jones, Julia PG


    There are concerns that Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) may fail to deliver potential biodiversity cobenefits if it is focused on high carbon areas. We explored the spatial overlaps between carbon stocks, biodiversity, projected deforestation threats, and the location of REDD+ projects in Indonesia, a tropical country at the forefront of REDD+ development. For biodiversity, we assembled data on the distribution of terrestrial vertebrates (ranges of amphibians, mammals, birds, reptiles) and plants (species distribution models for 8 families). We then investigated congruence between different measures of biodiversity richness and carbon stocks at the national and subnational scales. Finally, we mapped active REDD+ projects and investigated the carbon density and potential biodiversity richness and modeled deforestation pressures within these forests relative to protected areas and unprotected forests. There was little internal overlap among the different hotspots (richest 10% of cells) of species richness. There was also no consistent spatial congruence between carbon stocks and the biodiversity measures: a weak negative correlation at the national scale masked highly variable and nonlinear relationships island by island. Current REDD+ projects were preferentially located in areas with higher total species richness and threatened species richness but lower carbon densities than protected areas and unprotected forests. Although a quarter of the total area of these REDD+ projects is under relatively high deforestation pressure, the majority of the REDD+ area is not. In Indonesia at least, first-generation REDD+ projects are located where they are likely to deliver biodiversity benefits. However, if REDD+ is to deliver additional gains for climate and biodiversity, projects will need to focus on forests with the highest threat to deforestation, which will have cost implications for future REDD+ implementation. Los Patrones Espaciales

  13. Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to precipitation extremes: A synthesis of grassland precipitation manipulation experiments. (United States)

    Wilcox, Kevin R; Shi, Zheng; Gherardi, Laureano A; Lemoine, Nathan P; Koerner, Sally E; Hoover, David L; Bork, Edward; Byrne, Kerry M; Cahill, James; Collins, Scott L; Evans, Sarah; Gilgen, Anna K; Holub, Petr; Jiang, Lifen; Knapp, Alan K; LeCain, Daniel; Liang, Junyi; Garcia-Palacios, Pablo; Peñuelas, Josep; Pockman, William T; Smith, Melinda D; Sun, Shanghua; White, Shannon R; Yahdjian, Laura; Zhu, Kai; Luo, Yiqi


    Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitation changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. We used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. This highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change

  14. Beyond ectomycorrhizal bipartite networks: projected networks demonstrate contrasted patterns between early- and late-successional plants in Corsica.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrien eTaudiere


    Full Text Available The ectomycorrhizal (ECM symbiosis connects mutualistic plants and fungal species into bipartite networks. While links between one focal ECM plant and its fungal symbionts have been widely documented, systemic views of ECM networks are lacking, in particular, concerning the ability of fungal species to mediate indirect ecological interactions between ECM plant species (projected-ECM networks. We assembled a large dataset of plant-fungi associations at the species level and at the scale of Corsica using molecular data and unambiguously host-assigned records to: (i examine the correlation between the number of fungal symbionts of a plant species and the average specialization of these fungal species, (ii explore the structure of the plant-plant projected network and (iii compare plant association patterns in regard to their position along the ecological succession. Our analysis reveals no trade-off between specialization of plants and specialization of their partners and a saturation of the plant projected network. Moreover, there is a significantly lower-than-expected sharing of partners between early- and late-successional plant species, with fewer fungal partners for early-successional ones and similar average specialization of symbionts of early- and late-successional plants. Our work paves the way for ecological readings of Mediterranean landscapes that include the astonishing diversity of below-ground interactions.

  15. Validation of EURO-CORDEX regional climate models in reproducing the variability of precipitation extremes in Romania (United States)

    Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Busuioc, Aristita


    EURO-CORDEX is the European branch of the international CORDEX initiative that aims to provide improved regional climate change projections for Europe. The main objective of this paper is to document the performance of the individual models in reproducing the variability of precipitation extremes in Romania. Here three EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) ensemble (scenario RCP4.5) are analysed and inter-compared: DMI-HIRHAM5, KNMI-RACMO2.2 and MPI-REMO. Compared to previous studies, when the RCM validation regarding the Romanian climate has mainly been made on mean state and at station scale, a more quantitative approach of precipitation extremes is proposed. In this respect, to have a more reliable comparison with observation, a high resolution daily precipitation gridded data set was used as observational reference (CLIMHYDEX project). The comparison between the RCM outputs and observed grid point values has been made by calculating three extremes precipitation indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI), for the 1976-2005 period: R10MM, annual count of days when precipitation ≥10mm; RX5DAY, annual maximum 5-day precipitation and R95P%, precipitation fraction of annual total precipitation due to daily precipitation > 95th percentile. The RCMs capability to reproduce the mean state for these variables, as well as the main modes of their spatial variability (given by the first three EOF patterns), are analysed. The investigation confirms the ability of RCMs to simulate the main features of the precipitation extreme variability over Romania, but some deficiencies in reproducing of their regional characteristics were found (for example, overestimation of the mea state, especially over the extra Carpathian regions). This work has been realised within the research project "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania" (CLIMHYDEX), code PN II-ID-2011-2-0073, financed by the Romanian

  16. On brain activity mapping: insights and lessons from Brain Decoding Project to map memory patterns in the hippocampus. (United States)

    Tsien, Joe Z; Li, Meng; Osan, Remus; Chen, Guifen; Lin, Longnian; Wang, Phillip Lei; Frey, Sabine; Frey, Julietta; Zhu, Dajiang; Liu, Tianming; Zhao, Fang; Kuang, Hui


    The BRAIN project recently announced by the president Obama is the reflection of unrelenting human quest for cracking the brain code, the patterns of neuronal activity that define who we are and what we are. While the Brain Activity Mapping proposal has rightly emphasized on the need to develop new technologies for measuring every spike from every neuron, it might be helpful to consider both the theoretical and experimental aspects that would accelerate our search for the organizing principles of the brain code. Here we share several insights and lessons from the similar proposal, namely, Brain Decoding Project that we initiated since 2007. We provide a specific example in our initial mapping of real-time memory traces from one part of the memory circuit, namely, the CA1 region of the mouse hippocampus. We show how innovative behavioral tasks and appropriate mathematical analyses of large datasets can play equally, if not more, important roles in uncovering the specific-to-general feature-coding cell assembly mechanism by which episodic memory, semantic knowledge, and imagination are generated and organized. Our own experiences suggest that the bottleneck of the Brain Project is not only at merely developing additional new technologies, but also the lack of efficient avenues to disseminate cutting edge platforms and decoding expertise to neuroscience community. Therefore, we propose that in order to harness unique insights and extensive knowledge from various investigators working in diverse neuroscience subfields, ranging from perception and emotion to memory and social behaviors, the BRAIN project should create a set of International and National Brain Decoding Centers at which cutting-edge recording technologies and expertise on analyzing large datasets analyses can be made readily available to the entire community of neuroscientists who can apply and schedule to perform cutting-edge research.

  17. Statistical and dynamical downscaling assessments of precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hertig, Elke; Seubert, Stefanie; Jacobeit, Jucundus [Augsburg Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Geography; Paxian, Andreas; Vogt, Gernot; Paeth, Heiko [Wuerzburg Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Geography and Geology


    Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean area have been defined by different percentile-based indices of extreme precipitation for autumn and winter: the number of events exceeding the 95{sup th} percentile of daily precipitation, percentage, total amount, and mean daily intensity of precipitation from these events. Results from statistical downscaling applying canonical correlation analysis as well as from dynamical downscaling using the regional climate model REMO are mapped for the 1961-1990 baseline period as well as for the magnitude of change for the future time slice 2021-2050 in relation to the former period. Direct output of the coupled global circulation model ECHAM5 is used as an additional source of information. A qualitative comparison of the two different downscaling techniques indicates that under the present climate both the dynamical and the statistical techniques have skill to reproduce extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean area. A good representation of the frequency of extreme precipitation events arises from the statistical downscaling approach, whereas the intensity of such events is adequately modelled by the dynamical downscaling. Concerning the change of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean area until the mid-21{sup st} century, it is projected that the frequency of extreme precipitation events will decrease in most parts of the Mediterranean area in autumn and winter. The change of the mean intensity of such events shows a rather heterogeneous pattern with intensity increases in winter most likely at topographical elevations exposed to the West, where the uplift of humid air profits by the increase of atmospheric moisture under climate change conditions. For the precipitation total from events exceeding the 95{sup th} percentile of daily precipitation, widespread decreases are indicated in autumn, whereas in winter increases occur over the western part of the Iberian Peninsula and southern France, and reductions over

  18. Usage Patterns of Electric Bicycles: An Analysis of the WeBike Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Gorenflo


    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of data collected through the Waterloo WeBike project: a field trial in which over 30 sensor-equipped electric bicycles (e-bikes were given to members of the University of Waterloo for personal use. Our dataset includes e-bike trips and battery charging sessions spanning nearly three years, from summer 2014 until spring 2017. We also conducted three surveys both before and during the trial. Our main findings were that the primary purpose of the e-bikes in our trial was for commuting, with most trips lasting less than 20 minutes and most trips taking place in the summer months. Our battery charging analysis revealed no evidence of range anxiety, and our analysis of survey results showed little correlation between anticipated and actual use. Furthermore, when asked about their opinions about various modes of transportation, our participants rated regular bicycles higher than e-bikes even after becoming familiar with e-bikes through the field trial. Based on our analysis, we draw several conclusions, including the fact that the general population in Canada is still unaware of e-bikes and their potential. Moreover, e-bike manufacturers should target sales to nonbike users, such as seniors, rather than trying to displace sales of regular bicycles.

  19. Spatial patterns of malaria in a land reform colonization project, Juruena municipality, Mato Grosso, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Souza-Santos Reinaldo


    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Brazil, 99% of malaria cases are concentrated in the Amazon, and malaria's spatial distribution is commonly associated with socio-environmental conditions on a fine landscape scale. In this study, the spatial patterns of malaria and its determinants in a rural settlement of the Brazilian agricultural reform programme called "Vale do Amanhecer" in the northern Mato Grosso state were analysed. Methods In a fine-scaled, exploratory ecological study, geocoded notification forms corresponding to malaria cases from 2005 were compared with spectral indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and the third component of the Tasseled Cap Transformation (TC_3 and thematic layers, derived from the visual interpretation of multispectral TM-Landsat 5 imagery and the application of GIS distance operators. Results Of a total of 336 malaria cases, 102 (30.36% were caused by Plasmodium falciparum and 174 (51.79% by Plasmodium vivax. Of all the cases, 37.6% (133 cases were from residents of a unique road. In total, 276 cases were reported for the southern part of the settlement, where the population density is higher, with notification rates higher than 10 cases per household. The local landscape mostly consists of open areas (38.79 km². Training forest occupied 27.34 km² and midsize vegetation 7.01 km². Most domiciles with more than five notified malaria cases were located near areas with high NDVI values. Most domiciles (41.78% and malaria cases (44.94% were concentrated in areas with intermediate values of the TC_3, a spectral index representing surface and vegetation humidity. Conclusions Environmental factors and their alteration are associated with the occurrence and spatial distribution of malaria cases in rural settlements.

  20. Modeling winter precipitation over the Juneau Icefield, Alaska, using a linear model of orographic precipitation (United States)

    Roth, Aurora; Hock, Regine; Schuler, Thomas V.; Bieniek, Peter A.; Pelto, Mauri; Aschwanden, Andy


    Assessing and modeling precipitation in mountainous areas remains a major challenge in glacier mass balance modeling. Observations are typically scarce and reanalysis data and similar climate products are too coarse to accurately capture orographic effects. Here we use the linear theory of orographic precipitation model (LT model) to downscale winter precipitation from a regional climate model over the Juneau Icefield, one of the largest ice masses in North America (>4000 km2), for the period 1979-2013. The LT model is physically-based yet computationally efficient, combining airflow dynamics and simple cloud microphysics. The resulting 1 km resolution precipitation fields show substantially reduced precipitation on the northeastern portion of the icefield compared to the southwestern side, a pattern that is not well captured in the coarse resolution (20 km) WRF data. Net snow accumulation derived from the LT model precipitation agrees well with point observations across the icefield. To investigate the robustness of the LT model results, we perform a series of sensitivity experiments varying hydrometeor fall speeds, the horizontal resolution of the underlying grid, and the source of the meteorological forcing data. The resulting normalized spatial precipitation pattern is similar for all sensitivity experiments, but local precipitation amounts vary strongly, with greatest sensitivity to variations in snow fall speed. Results indicate that the LT model has great potential to provide improved spatial patterns of winter precipitation for glacier mass balance modeling purposes in complex terrain, but ground observations are necessary to constrain model parameters to match total amounts.

  1. Modelled Precipitation Over Greenland (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set includes the annual total precipitation from 1985 to 1999 and monthly total precipitation from January 1985 to December 1999. The data is derived from...

  2. Precipitation trends over the Korean peninsula: typhoon-induced changes and a typology for characterizing climate-related risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jong-Suk; Jain, Shaleen


    Typhoons originating in the west Pacific are major contributors to climate-related risk over the Korean peninsula. The current perspective regarding improved characterization of climatic risk and the projected increases in the intensity, frequency, duration, and power dissipation of typhoons during the 21st century in the western North Pacific region motivated a reappraisal of historical trends in precipitation. In this study, trends in the magnitude and frequency of seasonal precipitation in the five major river basins in Korea are analyzed on the basis of a separation analysis, with recognition of moisture sources (typhoon and non-typhoon). Over the 1966-2007 period, typhoons accounted for 21-26% of seasonal precipitation, with the largest values in the Nakdong River Basin. Typhoon-related precipitation events have increased significantly over portions of Han, Nakdong, and Geum River Basins. Alongside broad patterns toward increases in the magnitude and frequency of precipitation, distinct patterns of trends in the upper and lower quartiles (corresponding to changes in extreme events) are evident. A trend typology-spatially resolved characterization of the combination of shifts in the upper and lower tails of the precipitation distribution-shows that a number of sub-basins have undergone significant changes in one or both of the tails of the precipitation distribution. This broader characterization of trends illuminates the relative role of causal climatic factors and an identification of 'hot spots' likely to experience high exposure to typhoon-related climatic extremes in the future.

  3. Projectables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Troels A.; Merritt, Timothy R.


    CNC cutting machines have become essential tools for designers and architects enabling rapid prototyping, model-building and production of high quality components. Designers often cut from new materials, discarding the irregularly shaped remains. We introduce ProjecTables, a visual augmented...... reality system for interactive packing of model parts onto sheet materials. ProjecTables enables designers to (re)use scrap materials for CNC cutting that would have been previously thrown away, at the same time supporting aesthetic choices related to wood grain, avoiding surface blemishes, and other...... relevant material properties. We conducted evaluations of ProjecTables with design students from Aarhus School of Architecture, demonstrating that participants could quickly and easily place and orient model parts reducing material waste. Contextual interviews and ideation sessions led to a deeper...

  4. Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate. (United States)

    Pendergrass, Angeline G; Knutti, Reto; Lehner, Flavio; Deser, Clara; Sanderson, Benjamin M


    Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle's response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climate models increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21 st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3-4% K -1 globally, 4-5% K -1 over land and 2-4% K -1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. We show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.

  5. Seasonal precipitation extreme indices in mainland Portugal: trends and variability in the period 1941-2007 (United States)

    Santo, Fátima E.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; de Lima, M. Isabel P.; Trigo, Ricardo M.


    Changes in the precipitation regimes are expected to be accompanied by variations in the occurrence of extreme events, which in turn could be related to low frequency variability. The impact on the society and environment requires that the regional specificities are understood. For mainland Portugal, this work reports the results of the analysis of trends in selected precipitation indices calculated from daily precipitation data from 57 meteorological stations, recorded in the period 1941-2007; additionally we have also investigated the correlations between these indices and several modes of low frequency variability over the area. We focus on exploring regional differences and seasonal variations in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events. The precipitation indices were assessed at the seasonal scale and calculated at both the station and regional scales. Results sometimes highlight marked changes in seasonal precipitation and show that: i) trends in spring and autumn have opposite signals: statistically significant drying trends in the spring are accompanied by a reduction in precipitation extremes; in autumn, wetting trends are detected for all precipitation indices, although overall they are not significant at the 5% level; ii) there seems to be a tendency for a reduction in the duration of the rainy season; iii) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the mode of variability that has the highest influence on precipitation extremes over mainland Portugal, particularly in the winter and autumn, and is one of the most important teleconnection patterns in all seasons. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) through project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

  6. Rheology of tetraphenylborate precipitate slurry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goren, I.D.; Martin, H.D.; McLain, M.A.


    The rheological properties of tetraphenylborate precipitate slurry were determined. This nonradioactive slurry simulates the radioactive tetraphenylborate precipitate generated at the Savannah River Plant by the In-Tank Precipitation Process. The data obtained in this study was applied in the design of slurry pumps, transfer pumps, transfer lines, and vessel agitation for the Defense Waste Processing Facility and other High Level Waste treatment projects. The precipitate slurry behaves as a Bingham plastic. The yield stress is directly proportional to the concentration of insoluble solids over the range of concentrations studied. The consistency is also a linear function of insoluble solids over the same concentration range. Neither the yield stress nor the consistency was observed to be affected by the presence of the soluble solids. Temperature effects on flow properties of the slurry were also examined: the yield stress is inversely proportional to temperature, but the consistency of the slurry is independent of temperature. No significant time-dependent effects were found. 4 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

  7. Cerium oxalate precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, T.P.


    Cerium, a nonradioactive, common stand-in for plutonium in development work, has been used to simulate several plutonium precipitation processes at the Savannah River Laboratory. There are similarities between the plutonium trifluoride and the cerium oxalate precipitations in particle size and extent of plating, but not particle morphology. The equilibrium solubility, precipitation kinetics, particle size, extent of plating, and dissolution characteristics of cerium oxalate have been investigated. Interpretations of particle size and plating based on precipitation kinetics (i.e., nucleation and crystal growth) are presented. 16 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs

  8. Comparison of meal patterns across five European countries using standardized 24-h recall (GloboDiet) data from the EFCOVAL project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Park, Min Kyung; Freisling, Heinz; Huseinovic, Ena; Winkvist, Anna; Huybrechts, Inge; Crispim, Sandra Patricia; Vries, de Jeanne H.M.; Geelen, Anouk; Niekerk, Maryse; Rossum, van Caroline; Slimani, Nadia


    Purpose: To examine meal patterns in terms of frequency and circadian timing of eating in five European countries participating in the EFCOVAL project. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 559 men and women, aged 44–65 years, were recruited in Belgium, the Czech Republic, France (Southern part),

  9. A Multimethod Approach towards Assessing Urban Flood Patterns and Its Associated Vulnerabilities in Singapore


    Winston T. L. Chow; Brendan D. Cheong; Beatrice H. Ho


    We investigated flooding patterns in the urbanised city-state of Singapore through a multimethod approach combining station precipitation data with archival newspaper and governmental records; changes in flash floods frequencies or reported impacts of floods towards Singapore society were documented. We subsequently discussed potential flooding impacts in the context of urban vulnerability, based on future urbanisation and forecasted precipitation projections for Singapore. We find that, desp...

  10. Future Precipitation Extremes in China Under Climate Change and Their Possible Mechanisms by Regional Climate Model and Earth System Model Simulations (United States)

    Qin, P.; Xie, Z.


    Future precipitation extremes in China for the mid and end of 21st century were detected with six simulations using the regional climate model RegCM4 (RCM) and 17 global climate models (GCM) participated in the coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Prior to understanding the future changes in precipitation extremes, we overviewed the performance of precipitation extremes simulated by the CMIP5s and RCMs, and found both CMIP5s and RCMs could capture the temporal and spatial pattern of the historical precipitation extremes in China. In the mid-future period 2039-2058 (MF) and far-future 2079-2098 (FF), more wet precipitation extremes will occur in most area of China relative to the present period 1982-2001 (RF). We quantified the rates of the changes in precipitation extremes in China with the changes in air surface temperature (T2M) for the MF and FF period. Changes in precipitation extremes R95p were found around 5% K-1 for the MF period and 10% K-1 for the FF period, and changes in maximum 5 day precipitation (Rx5day) were detected around 4% K-1 for the MF period and 7% K-1 for the FF period, respectively. Finally, the possible physical mechanisms behind the changes in precipitation extremes in China were also discussed through the changes in specific humidity and vertical wind.

  11. A Global Precipitation Perspective on Persistent Extratropical Flow Anomalies (United States)

    Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.


    Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2 x 79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg x 1 deg grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some

  12. Deforestation and Rice: Using Methods in Modeling and Remote Sensing to Project Patterns of Forest Change in Eastern Madagascar (United States)

    Armstrong, A. H.; Fatoyinbo, T. E.; Fischer, R.; Huth, A.; Shugart, H. H.


    In the species rich tropics, forest conservation is often eclipsed by anthropogenic disturbance, resulting in a heightened need for an accurate assessment of biomass and the gaining of predictive capability before these ecosystems disappear. The combination of multi-temporal remote sensing data, field data and forest growth modeling to quantify carbon stocks and flux is therefore of great importance. In this study, we utilize these methods to (1) improve forest biomass and carbon flux estimates for the study region in Eastern Madagascar, and (2) initialize an individual-based growth model that incorporates the anthropogenic factors causing deforestation to project ecosystem response to future environmental change. Recent studies have shown that there is a direct correlation between the international rice market and rates of deforestation in tropical countries such as Madagascar (see Minten et al., 2006). Further, although law protects the remaining forest areas, dictatorships and recent political unrest have lead to poor or non-existent enforcement of precious wood and forest protection over the past 35 years. Our approach combined multi-temporal remote sensing analysis and ecological modeling using a theoretical and mathematical approach to assess biomass change and to understand how tree growth and life history (growth response patterns) relate to past and present economic variability in Madagascar forests of the eastern Toamasina region. We measured rates of change of deforestation with respect to politics and the price of rice by classifying and comparing biomass using 30m Landsat during 5 political regime time periods (1985-1992, 1993-1996, 1997-2001, 2002-2008, 2009 to present). Forest biomass estimations were calibrated using forest inventory data collected over 3 growing seasons over the study region (130 small circular plots in primary forest). This information was then built into the previously parameterized (Armstrong et al., in prep and Fischer et al in

  13. Low interannual precipitation has a greater negative effect than seedling herbivory on the population dynamics of a short-lived shrub, Schiedea obovata. (United States)

    Bialic-Murphy, Lalasia; Gaoue, Orou G


    Climate projections forecast more extreme interannual climate variability over time, with an increase in the severity and duration of extreme drought and rainfall events. Based on bioclimatic envelope models, it is projected that changing precipitation patterns will drastically alter the spatial distributions and density of plants and be a primary driver of biodiversity loss. However, many other underlying mechanisms can impact plant vital rates (i.e., survival, growth, and reproduction) and population dynamics. In this study, we developed a size-dependent integral projection model (IPM) to evaluate how interannual precipitation and mollusk herbivory influence the dynamics of a Hawaii endemic short-lived shrub, Schiedea obovata (Caryophyllaceae). Assessing how wet season precipitation effects population dynamics it critical, as it is the timeframe when most of the foliar growth occurs, plants flower and fruit, and seedlings establish. Temporal variation in wet season precipitation had a greater effect than mollusk herbivory on S . obovata population growth rate λ, and the impact of interannual precipitation on vital rates shifted across plant ontogeny. Furthermore, wet season precipitation influenced multiple vital rates in contrasting ways and the effect of precipitation on the survival of larger vegetative and reproductively mature individuals contributed the most to variation in the population growth rate. Among all combination of wet season precipitation and herbivory intensities, the only scenario that led to a growing population was when high wet precipitation was associated with low herbivory. Our study highlights the importance of evaluating how abiotic factors and plant-consumer interactions influence an organism across its life cycle to fully understand the underpinning mechanisms that structure its spatial and temporal distribution and abundance. Our results also illustrate that for short-lived species, like S. obovata , seedling herbivory can have


    Moore, R.L.


    An lmprovement in the separation of protactinium from aqueous nitric acid solutions is described. 1t covers the use of lead dioxide and tin dioxide as carrier precipitates for the protactinium. In carrying out the process, divalent lead or divalent tin is addcd to the solution and oxidized, causing formation of a carrier precipitate of lead dioxide or stannic oxide, respectively.

  15. Global Precipitation Measurement Poster (United States)

    Azarbarzin, Art


    This poster presents an overview of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) constellation of satellites which are designed to measure the Earth's precipitation. It includes the schedule of launches for the various satellites in the constellation, and the coverage of the constellation, It also reviews the mission capabilities, and the mission science objectives.

  16. Exploring Patterns of Soil Organic Matter Decomposition with Students and the Public Through the Global Decomposition Project (GDP) (United States)

    Wood, J. H.; Natali, S.


    The Global Decomposition Project (GDP) is a program designed to introduce and educate students and the general public about soil organic matter and decomposition through a standardized protocol for collecting, reporting, and sharing data. This easy-to-use hands-on activity focuses on questions such as "How do environmental conditions control decomposition of organic matter in soil?" and "Why do some areas accumulate organic matter and others do not?" Soil organic matter is important to local ecosystems because it affects soil structure, regulates soil moisture and temperature, and provides energy and nutrients to soil organisms. It is also important globally because it stores a large amount of carbon, and when microbes "eat", or decompose organic matter they release greenhouse gasses such as carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, which affects the earth's climate. The protocol describes a commonly used method to measure decomposition using a paper made of cellulose, a component of plant cell walls. Participants can receive pre-made cellulose decomposition bags, or make decomposition bags using instructions in the protocol and easily obtained materials (e.g., window screen and lignin-free paper). Individual results will be shared with all participants and the broader public through an online database. We will present decomposition bag results from a research site in Alaskan tundra, as well as from a middle-school-student led experiment in California. The GDP demonstrates how scientific methods can be extended to educate broader audiences, while at the same time, data collected by students and the public can provide new insight into global patterns of soil decomposition. The GDP provides a pathway for scientists and educators to interact and reach meaningful education and research goals.

  17. Precipitation Dynamical Downscaling Over the Great Plains (United States)

    Hu, Xiao-Ming; Xue, Ming; McPherson, Renee A.; Martin, Elinor; Rosendahl, Derek H.; Qiao, Lei


    Detailed, regional climate projections, particularly for precipitation, are critical for many applications. Accurate precipitation downscaling in the United States Great Plains remains a great challenge for most Regional Climate Models, particularly for warm months. Most previous dynamic downscaling simulations significantly underestimate warm-season precipitation in the region. This study aims to achieve a better precipitation downscaling in the Great Plains with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. To this end, WRF simulations with different physics schemes and nudging strategies are first conducted for a representative warm season. Results show that different cumulus schemes lead to more pronounced difference in simulated precipitation than other tested physics schemes. Simply choosing different physics schemes is not enough to alleviate the dry bias over the southern Great Plains, which is related to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the central and western parts of continental U.S. in the simulations. Spectral nudging emerges as an effective solution for alleviating the precipitation bias. Spectral nudging ensures that large and synoptic-scale circulations are faithfully reproduced while still allowing WRF to develop small-scale dynamics, thus effectively suppressing the large-scale circulation anomaly in the downscaling. As a result, a better precipitation downscaling is achieved. With the carefully validated configurations, WRF downscaling is conducted for 1980-2015. The downscaling captures well the spatial distribution of monthly climatology precipitation and the monthly/yearly variability, showing improvement over at least two previously published precipitation downscaling studies. With the improved precipitation downscaling, a better hydrological simulation over the trans-state Oologah watershed is also achieved.

  18. Identifying external influences on global precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marvel, K.; Bonfils, C.


    Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle (“thermodynamic” changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt (“dynamic” changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities.

  19. Determination of the Projected Atomic Potential by Deconvolution of the Auto-Correlation Function of TEM Electron Nano-Diffraction Patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liberato De Caro


    Full Text Available We present a novel method to determine the projected atomic potential of a specimen directly from transmission electron microscopy coherent electron nano-diffraction patterns, overcoming common limitations encountered so far due to the dynamical nature of electron-matter interaction. The projected potential is obtained by deconvolution of the inverse Fourier transform of experimental diffraction patterns rescaled in intensity by using theoretical values of the kinematical atomic scattering factors. This novelty enables the compensation of dynamical effects typical of transmission electron microscopy (TEM experiments on standard specimens with thicknesses up to a few tens of nm. The projected atomic potentials so obtained are averaged on sample regions illuminated by nano-sized electron probes and are in good quantitative agreement with theoretical expectations. Contrary to lens-based microscopy, here the spatial resolution in the retrieved projected atomic potential profiles is related to the finer lattice spacing measured in the electron diffraction pattern. The method has been successfully applied to experimental nano-diffraction data of crystalline centrosymmetric and non-centrosymmetric specimens achieving a resolution of 65 pm.

  20. Three-dimensional shape profiling by out-of-focus projection of colored pulse width modulation fringe patterns. (United States)

    Silva, Adriana; Flores, Jorge L; Muñoz, Antonio; Ayubi, Gastón A; Ferrari, José A


    Three-dimensional (3D) shape profiling by sinusoidal phase-shifting methods is affected by the non-linearity of the projector. To overcome this problem, the defocusing technique has become an important alternative to generate sinusoidal fringe patterns. The precision of this method depends on the binary pattern used and on the defocusing applied. To improve the defocusing technique, we propose the implementation of a color-based binary fringe patterns. The proposed technique involves the generation of colored pulse width modulation (PWM) fringe patterns, which are generated with different frequencies at the carrier signal. From an adequate selection of these frequencies, the colored PWM fringe patterns will lead to amplitude harmonics lower than the conventional PWM fringe patterns. Hence, the defocusing can decrease, and the 3D shape profiling can be more accurate. Numerical simulations and experimental results are presented as validation.

  1. Precipitation Nowcast using Deep Recurrent Neural Network (United States)

    Akbari Asanjan, A.; Yang, T.; Gao, X.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.


    An accurate precipitation nowcast (0-6 hours) with a fine temporal and spatial resolution has always been an important prerequisite for flood warning, streamflow prediction and risk management. Most of the popular approaches used for forecasting precipitation can be categorized into two groups. One type of precipitation forecast relies on numerical modeling of the physical dynamics of atmosphere and another is based on empirical and statistical regression models derived by local hydrologists or meteorologists. Given the recent advances in artificial intelligence, in this study a powerful Deep Recurrent Neural Network, termed as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, is creatively used to extract the patterns and forecast the spatial and temporal variability of Cloud Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) observed from GOES satellite. Then, a 0-6 hours precipitation nowcast is produced using a Precipitation Estimation from Remote Sensing Information using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN) algorithm, in which the CTBT nowcast is used as the PERSIANN algorithm's raw inputs. Two case studies over the continental U.S. have been conducted that demonstrate the improvement of proposed approach as compared to a classical Feed Forward Neural Network and a couple simple regression models. The advantages and disadvantages of the proposed method are summarized with regard to its capability of pattern recognition through time, handling of vanishing gradient during model learning, and working with sparse data. The studies show that the LSTM model performs better than other methods, and it is able to learn the temporal evolution of the precipitation events through over 1000 time lags. The uniqueness of PERSIANN's algorithm enables an alternative precipitation nowcast approach as demonstrated in this study, in which the CTBT prediction is produced and used as the inputs for generating precipitation nowcast.

  2. Co- and multimorbidity patterns in primary care based on episodes of care: results from the German CONTENT project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosemann Thomas


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Due to technological progress and improvements in medical care and health policy the average age of patients in primary care is continuously growing. In equal measure, an increasing proportion of mostly elderly primary care patients presents with multiple coexisting medical conditions. To properly assess the current situation of co- and multimorbidity, valid scientific data based on an appropriate data structure are indispensable. CONTENT (CONTinuous morbidity registration Epidemiologic NeTwork is an ambitious project in Germany to establish a system for adequate record keeping and analysis in primary care based on episodes of care. An episode is defined as health problem from its first presentation by a patient to a doctor until the completion of the last encounter for it. The study aims to describe co- and multimorbidity as well as health care utilization based on episodes of care for the study population of the first participating general practices. Methods The analyses were based on a total of 39,699 patients in a yearly contact group (YCG out of 17 general practices in Germany for which data entry based on episodes of care using the International Classification of Primary Care (ICPC was performed between 1.1.2006 and 31.12.2006. In order to model the relationship between the explanatory variables (age, gender, number of chronic conditions and the response variables of interest (number of different prescriptions, number of referrals, number of encounters that were applied to measure health care utilization, we used multiple linear regression. Results In comparison to gender, patients' age had a manifestly stronger impact on the number of different prescriptions, the number of referrals and number of encounters. In comparison to age (β = 0.043, p Conclusion Documentation in primary care on the basis of episodes of care facilitates an insight to concurrently existing health problems and related medical procedures

  3. Congo Basin precipitation: Assessing seasonality, regional interactions, and sources of moisture (United States)

    Dyer, Ellen L. E.; Jones, Dylan B. A.; Nusbaumer, Jesse; Li, Harry; Collins, Owen; Vettoretti, Guido; Noone, David


    Precipitation in the Congo Basin was examined using a version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM) with water tagging capability. Using regionally defined water tracers, or tags, the moisture contribution from different source regions to Congo Basin precipitation was investigated. We found that the Indian Ocean and evaporation from the Congo Basin were the dominant moisture sources and that the Atlantic Ocean was a comparatively small source of moisture. In both rainy seasons the southwestern Indian Ocean contributed about 21% of the moisture, while the recycling ratio for moisture from the Congo Basin was about 25%. Near the surface, a great deal of moisture is transported from the Atlantic into the Congo Basin, but much of this moisture is recirculated back over the Atlantic in the lower troposphere. Although the southwestern Indian Ocean is a major source of Indian Ocean moisture, it is not associated with the bulk of the variability in precipitation over the Congo Basin. In wet years, more of the precipitation in the Congo Basin is derived from Indian Ocean moisture, but the spatial distribution of the dominant sources is shifted, reflecting changes in the midtropospheric circulation over the Indian Ocean. During wet years there is increased transport of moisture from the equatorial and eastern Indian Ocean. Our results suggest that reliably capturing the linkages between the large-scale circulation patterns over the Indian Ocean and the local circulation over the Congo Basin is critical for future projections of Congo Basin precipitation.

  4. Precipitates in irradiated Zircaloy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, H.M.


    Precipitates in high-burnup (>20 MWd/kg U) Zircaloy spent-fuel cladding discharged from commercial boiling- and pressurized-water reactors have been characterized by TEM-HVEM. Three classes of primary precipitates were observed in the irradiated Zircaloys: Zr 3 O (2 to 6 nm), cubic-ZrO 2 (greater than or equal to 10 nm), and delta-hydride (35 to 100 nm). The former two precipitations appears to be irradiation induced in nature. Zr(Fe/sub x/Cr/sub 1-x/) 2 and Zr 2 (Fe/sub x/Ni/sub 1-x/) intermetallics, which are the primary precipitates in unirradiated Zircaloys, were largely dissolved after the high burnup. It seems, therefore, that the influence of the size and distribution of the intermetallics on the corrosion behavior may be quite different for the irradiated Zircaloys

  5. Variability in warm-season atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns over subtropical South America: relationships between the South Atlantic convergence zone and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin (United States)

    Mattingly, Kyle S.; Mote, Thomas L.


    Warm-season precipitation variability over subtropical South America is characterized by an inverse relationship between the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and precipitation over the central and western La Plata basin of southeastern South America. This study extends the analysis of this "South American Seesaw" precipitation dipole to relationships between the SACZ and large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems (LLCSs) over the La Plata basin. By classifying SACZ events into distinct continental and oceanic categories and building a logistic regression model that relates LLCS activity across the region to continental and oceanic SACZ precipitation, a detailed account of spatial variability in the out-of-phase coupling between the SACZ and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin is provided. Enhanced precipitation in the continental SACZ is found to result in increased LLCS activity over northern, northeastern, and western sections of the La Plata basin, in association with poleward atmospheric moisture flux from the Amazon basin toward these regions, and a decrease in the probability of LLCS occurrence over the southeastern La Plata basin. Increased oceanic SACZ precipitation, however, was strongly related to reduced atmospheric moisture and decreased probability of LLCS occurrence over nearly the entire La Plata basin. These results suggest that continental SACZ activity and large-scale organized convection over the northern and eastern sections of the La Plata basin are closely tied to atmospheric moisture transport from the Amazon basin, while the warm coastal Brazil Current may also play an important role as an evaporative moisture source for LLCSs over the central and western La Plata basin.

  6. Examine Precipitation Extremes in Terms of Storm Properties (United States)

    Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.; Chen, L.; Gautam, M. R.; Acharya, K.


    The increasing potential of the extreme precipitation is of significant societal concern. Changes in precipitation extremes have been mostly examined using extreme precipitation indices or Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) analyses, which often fail to reveal the characteristics of an integrated precipitation event. In this study, we will examine the precipitation extremes in terms of storm properties including storm duration, storm intensity, total storm precipitation, and within storm pattern. Single storm event will be identified and storm properties will be determined based on the hourly precipitation time series in the selected locations in southwest United States. Three types of extreme precipitation event will be recognized using the criteria as (1) longest storm duration; (2) Highest storm intensity; and (3) largest total precipitation over a storm. The trend and variation of extreme precipitation events will be discussed for each criterion. Based on the comparisons of the characteristics of extreme precipitation events identified using different criteria, we will provide guidelines for choosing proper criteria for extreme precipitation analysis in specific location.

  7. Rain use efficiency across a precipitation gradient on the Tibetan Plateau (United States)

    Rain use efficiency (RUE), commonly described as the ratio of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) to mean annual precipitation (MAP), is a critical indicator for predicting potential responses of grassland ecosystems to changing precipitation regimes. However, current understanding on patterns...

  8. Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine (United States)

    Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena


    The aim of study is to analyze the parameters of precipitation extremes and inequality over Ukraine in recent climate epoch and their possible changes in the future. Data of observations from 28 hydrometeorological stations over Ukraine and output of GFDL-CM3 model (CMIP5) for XXI century were used in the study. The methods of concentration index (J. Martin-Vide, 2004) for the study of precipitation inequality while the extreme precipitation indices recommended by the ETCCDI - for the frequency of events. Results. Precipitation inequality on the annual and seasonal scales was studied using estimated CI series for 1951-2005. It was found that annual CI ranges vary from 0.58 to 0.64. They increase southward from the north-west (forest zone) and the north-east (forest steppe zone) of Ukraine. CI maxima are located in the coastal regions of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Annual CI spatial distribution indicates that the contribution of extreme precipitation into annual totals is most significant at the boundary zone between steppe and marine regions. At the same time precipitation pattern at the foothill of Carpathian Mountains is more homogenous. The CI minima (0.54) are typical for the winter season in foothill of Ukrainian Carpathians. The CI maxima reach 0.71 in spring at the steppe zone closed to the Black Sea coast. It should be noted that the greatest ranges of CI maximum and CI minimum deviation are typical for spring. It is associated with patterns of cyclone trajectories in that season. The most territory is characterized by tendency to decrease the contribution of extreme precipitation into the total amount (CI linear trends are predominantly negative in all seasons). Decadal and interdecadal variability of precipitation inequality associated with global processes in ocean-atmosphere system are also studied. It was shown that precipitation inequality over Ukraine on 10 - 15 % stronger in negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and in positive phase

  9. Reconstructing Hydrologic Variability in Southwestern North America Using Speleothem Proxies and Precipitation Isotopes from California (United States)

    McCabe-Glynn, Staryl

    Precipitation in southwestern North America has exhibited significant natural variability over the past few thousand years. This variability has been attributed to sea surface temperature regimes in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and to the attendant shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. In particular, decadal variability in the North Pacific has influenced precipitation in this region during the twentieth century, but links to earlier droughts and pluvials are unclear. Here I assess these links using delta18 O measurements from a speleothem from southern California that spans AD 854-- 2007. I show that variations in the oxygen isotopes of the speleothem correlate to sea surface temperatures in the Kuroshio Extension region of the North Pacific, which affect the atmospheric trajectory and isotopic composition of moisture reaching the study site. Interpreting our speleothem data as a record of sea surface temperatures in the Kuroshio Extension, I find a strong 22-year periodicity, suggesting a persistent solar influence on North Pacific decadal variability. A comparison with tree-ring records of precipitation during the past millennium shows that some droughts occurred during periods of warmth in the Kuroshio Extension, similar to the instrumental record. However, other droughts did not and instead were likely influenced by other factors. The carbon isotope record indicates drier conditions are associated with higher delta13C values and may be a suitable proxy for reconstructing past drought variability. More research is needed to determine the controls on trace element concentrations. Finally, I find a significant increase in sea surface temperature variability over the past 150 years, which may reflect an influence of greenhouse gas concentrations on variability in the North Pacific. While drought is a common feature of climate in this region, most climate models also project extreme precipitation events to increase in frequency and severity because the

  10. Obesity and subcutaneous fat patterning in relation to survival of postmenopausal breast cancer patients participating in the DOM-project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    den Tonkelaar, I.; de Waard van de Spek, FB; Seidell, J C; Fracheboud, J


    The effect of obesity and fat distribution on survival of breast cancer patients was studied prospectively in 241 women with a natural menopause who participated in a breast cancer screening project, the DOM-project in Utrecht, The Netherlands. Mean follow-up time was 9.1 years and endpoint of

  11. The impacts of changing transport and precipitation on pollutant distributions in a future climate (United States)

    Fang, Yuanyuan; Fiore, Arlene M.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Held, Isaac; Chen, Gang; Vecchi, Gabriel; Levy, Hiram


    Air pollution (ozone and particulate matter in surface air) is strongly linked to synoptic weather and thus is likely sensitive to climate change. In order to isolate the responses of air pollutant transport and wet removal to a warming climate, we examine a simple carbon monoxide-like (CO) tracer (COt) and a soluble version (SAt), both with the 2001 CO emissions, in simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory chemistry-climate model (AM3) for present (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100) climates. In 2081-2100, projected reductions in lower-tropospheric ventilation and wet deposition exacerbate surface air pollution as evidenced by higher surface COt and SAt concentrations. However, the average horizontal general circulation patterns in 2081-2100 are similar to 1981-2000, so the spatial distribution of COt changes little. Precipitation is an important factor controlling soluble pollutant wet removal, but the total global precipitation change alone does not necessarily indicate the sign of the soluble pollutant response to climate change. Over certain latitudinal bands, however, the annual wet deposition change can be explained mainly by the simulated changes in large-scale (LS) precipitation. In regions such as North America, differences in the seasonality of LS precipitation and tracer burdens contribute to an apparent inconsistency of changes in annual wet deposition versus annual precipitation. As a step toward an ultimate goal of developing a simple index that can be applied to infer changes in soluble pollutants directly from changes in precipitation fields as projected by physical climate models, we explore here a "Diagnosed Precipitation Impact" (DPI) index. This index captures the sign and magnitude (within 50%) of the relative annual mean changes in the global wet deposition of the soluble pollutant. DPI can only be usefully applied in climate models in which LS precipitation dominates wet deposition and horizontal transport patterns change

  12. An Innovative Metric to Evaluate Satellite Precipitation's Spatial Distribution (United States)

    Liu, H.; Chu, W.; Gao, X.; Sorooshian, S.


    Thanks to its capability to cover the mountains, where ground measurement instruments cannot reach, satellites provide a good means of estimating precipitation over mountainous regions. In regions with complex terrains, accurate information on high-resolution spatial distribution of precipitation is critical for many important issues, such as flood/landslide warning, reservoir operation, water system planning, etc. Therefore, in order to be useful in many practical applications, satellite precipitation products should possess high quality in characterizing spatial distribution. However, most existing validation metrics, which are based on point/grid comparison using simple statistics, cannot effectively measure satellite's skill of capturing the spatial patterns of precipitation fields. This deficiency results from the fact that point/grid-wised comparison does not take into account of the spatial coherence of precipitation fields. Furth more, another weakness of many metrics is that they can barely provide information on why satellite products perform well or poor. Motivated by our recent findings of the consistent spatial patterns of the precipitation field over the western U.S., we developed a new metric utilizing EOF analysis and Shannon entropy. The metric can be derived through two steps: 1) capture the dominant spatial patterns of precipitation fields from both satellite products and reference data through EOF analysis, and 2) compute the similarities between the corresponding dominant patterns using mutual information measurement defined with Shannon entropy. Instead of individual point/grid, the new metric treat the entire precipitation field simultaneously, naturally taking advantage of spatial dependence. Since the dominant spatial patterns are shaped by physical processes, the new metric can shed light on why satellite product can or cannot capture the spatial patterns. For demonstration, a experiment was carried out to evaluate a satellite

  13. Centrifugal precipitation chromatography (United States)

    Ito, Yoichiro; Lin, Qi


    Centrifugal precipitation chromatography separates analytes according their solubility in ammonium sulfate (AS) solution and other precipitants. The separation column is made from a pair of long spiral channels partitioned with a semipermeable membrane. In a typical separation, concentrated ammonium sulfate is eluted through one channel while water is eluted through the other channel in the opposite direction. The countercurrent process forms an exponential AS concentration gradient through the water channel. Consequently, protein samples injected into the water channel is subjected to a steadily increasing AS concentration and at the critical AS concentration they are precipitated and deposited in the channel bed by the centrifugal force. Then the chromatographic separation is started by gradually reducing the AS concentration in the AS channel which lowers the AS gradient concentration in the water channel. This results in dissolution of deposited proteins which are again precipitated at an advanced critical point as they move through the channel. Consequently, proteins repeat precipitation and dissolution through a long channel and finally eluted out from the column in the order of their solubility in the AS solution. The present method has been successfully applied to a number of analytes including human serum proteins, recombinant ketosteroid isomerase, carotenoid cleavage enzymes, plasmid DNA, polysaccharide, polymerized pigments, PEG-protein conjugates, etc. The method is capable to single out the target species of proteins by affinity ligand or immunoaffinity separation. PMID:19541553

  14. Elimination of ammonium from waste water by means of chemical precipitation. Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehnke, B.; Schulze-Rettmer, R.


    In the course of this research project, a process for precipitating ammonium salts contained in waste water was developed. The precipitate can be used as fertilizer. The purification process was tested in a pilot plant. (EF) [de

  15. Ammonia induced precipitation of cobalt hydroxide: observation of turbostratic disorder (United States)

    Ramesh, T. N.; Rajamathi, Michael; Kamath, P. Vishnu


    Cobalt hydroxide freshly precipitated from aqueous solutions of Co salts using ammonia, is a layered phase having a 9.17 Å interlayer spacing. DIFFaX simulations of the PXRD pattern reveal that it is turbostratically disordered.

  16. The Effect of Hurricanes on Annual Precipitation in Maryland and the Connection to Global Climate Change (United States)

    Liu, Jackie; Liu, Zhong


    Precipitation is a vital aspect of our lives droughts, floods and other related disasters that involve precipitation can cause costly damage in the economic system and general society. Purpose of this project is to determine what, if any effect do hurricanes have on annual precipitation in Maryland Research will be conducted on Marylands terrain, climatology, annual precipitation, and precipitation contributed from hurricanes Possible connections to climate change

  17. Individual Neurons Confined to Distinct Antennal-Lobe Tracts in the Heliothine Moth: Morphological Characteristics and Global Projection Patterns (United States)

    Ian, Elena; Zhao, Xin C.; Lande, Andreas; Berg, Bente G.


    To explore fundamental principles characterizing chemosensory information processing, we have identified antennal-lobe projection neurons in the heliothine moth, including several neuron types not previously described. Generally, odor information is conveyed from the primary olfactory center of the moth brain, the antennal lobe, to higher brain centers via projection neuron axons passing along several parallel pathways, of which the medial, mediolateral, and lateral antennal-lobe tract are considered the classical ones. Recent data have revealed the projections of the individual tracts more in detail demonstrating three main target regions in the protocerebrum; the calyces are innervated mainly by the medial tract, the superior intermediate protocerebrum by the lateral tract exclusively, and the lateral horn by all tracts. In the present study, we have identified, via iontophoretic intracellular staining combined with confocal microscopy, individual projection neurons confined to the tracts mentioned above, plus two additional ones. Further, using the visualization software AMIRA, we reconstructed the stained neurons and registered the models into a standard brain atlas, which allowed us to compare the termination areas of individual projection neurons both across and within distinct tracts. The data demonstrate a morphological diversity of the projection neurons within distinct tracts. Comparison of the output areas of the neurons confined to the three main tracts in the lateral horn showed overlapping terminal regions for the medial and mediolateral tracts; the lateral tract neurons, on the contrary, targeted mostly other output areas in the protocerebrum. PMID:27822181

  18. Transient bedrock channel evolution across a precipitation gradient: A case study from Kohala, Hawaii. (United States)

    Gasparini, N. M.; Han, J.; Johnson, J. P.; Menking, J. A.


    This study uses observations from the Kohala Peninsula, on the Big Island of Hawaii, and numerical modeling, to explore how precipitation gradients may affect fluvial bedrock incision and channel morphology. Orographic precipitation patterns result in over 4 m/yr of rainfall on the wet side of the peninsula and less than 0.5 m/yr on the dry side. These precipitation patterns likely strongly contribute to the observed channel morphology. Further, the region is subsiding, leading to prolonged transient channel evolution. We explore changes in a number of channel morphologic parameters with watershed averaged precipitation rate. We use PRISM precipitation data and data from isohyets developed from historic rain gauge data. Not surprisingly, valley depth, measured from a 10 meter DEM, increases with spatially averaged precipitation rate. We also find that channel profile form varies with precipitation rate, with drier channels exhibiting a straight to slightly concave channel form and wetter channels exhibiting a convex to concave channel form. The precipitation value at which this transition in channel profile form occurs depends on the precipitation data-set used, highlighting the need for more accurate measurements of precipitation in settings with extreme precipitation patterns similar to our study area. The downstream pattern in precipitation is likely significant in the development of the convex-concave profile form. Numerical modeling results support that precipitation patterns such as those observed on the wet-side of the Kohala Peninsula may contribute to the convex-concave profile form. However, we emphasize that while precipitation patterns may contribute to the channel form, these channel features are transient and not expected to be sustained in steady-state landscapes. We also emphasize that it is fluvial discharge, as driven by precipitation, rather than precipitation alone, that drives the processes shaping the channel form. Because fluvial discharge is

  19. Understanding the effect of an excessive cold tongue bias on projecting the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models (United States)

    Ying, Jun; Huang, Ping; Lian, Tao; Tan, Hongjian


    An excessive cold tongue is a common bias among current climate models, and considered an important source of bias in projections of tropical Pacific climate change under global warming. Specifically, the excessive cold tongue bias is closely related to the tropical Pacific SST warming (TPSW) pattern. In this study, we reveal that two processes are the critical mechanisms by which the excessive cold tongue bias influences the projection of the TPSW pattern, based on 32 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP5). On the one hand, by assuming that the shortwave (SW) radiation to SST feedback is linearly correlated to the cold tongue SST, the excessive cold tongue bias can induce an overly weak negative SW-SST feedback in the central Pacific, which can lead to a positive SST warming bias in the central to western Pacific (around 150°E-140°W). Moreover, the overly weak local atmospheric dynamics response to SST is a key process of the overly weak SW-SST feedback, compared with the cloud response to atmospheric dynamics and the SW radiation response to cloud. On the other hand, the overly strong ocean zonal overturning circulation associated with the excessive cold tongue bias results in an overestimation of the ocean dynamical thermostat effect, with enhanced ocean stratification under global warming, leading to a negative SST warming bias in the central and eastern Pacific (around 170°W-120°W). These two processes jointly form a positive SST warming bias in the western Pacific, contributing to a La Niña-like warming bias. Therefore, we suggest a more realistic climatological cold tongue SST is needed for a more reliable projection of the TPSW pattern.

  20. Future changes of precipitation characteristics in China (United States)

    Wu, S.; Wu, Y.; Wen, J.


    Global warming has the potential to alter the hydrological cycle, with significant impacts on the human society, the environment and ecosystems. This study provides a detailed assessment of potential changes in precipitation characteristics in China using a suite of 12 high-resolution CMIP5 climate models under a medium and a high Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We examine future changes over the entire distribution of precipitation, and identify any shift in the shape and/or scale of the distribution. In addition, we use extreme-value theory to evaluate the change in probability and magnitude for extreme precipitation events. Overall, China is going to experience an increase in total precipitation (by 8% under RCP4.5 and 12% under RCP8.5). This increase is uneven spatially, with more increase in the west and less increase in the east. Precipitation frequency is projected to increase in the west and decrease in the east. Under RCP4.5, the overall precipitation frequency for the entire China remains largely unchanged (0.08%). However, RCP8.5 projects a more significant decrease in frequency for large part of China, resulting in an overall decrease of 2.08%. Precipitation intensity is likely increase more uniformly, with an overall increase of 11% for RCP4.5 and 19% for RCP8.5. Precipitation increases for all parts of the distribution, but the increase is more for higher quantiles, i.e. strong events. The relative contribution of small quantiles is likely to decrease, whereas contribution from heavy events is likely to increase. Extreme precipitation increase at much higher rates than average precipitation, and high rates of increase are expected for more extreme events. 1-year events are likely to increase by 15%, but 20-year events are going to increase by 21% under RCP4.5, 26% and 40% respectively under RCP8.5. The increase of extreme events is likely to be more spatially uniform.

  1. Numerical simulations of significant orographic precipitation in Madeira island (United States)

    Couto, Flavio Tiago; Ducrocq, Véronique; Salgado, Rui; Costa, Maria João


    High-resolution simulations of high precipitation events with the MESO-NH model are presented, and also used to verify that increasing horizontal resolution in zones of complex orography, such as in Madeira island, improve the simulation of the spatial distribution and total precipitation. The simulations succeeded in reproducing the general structure of the cloudy systems over the ocean in the four periods considered of significant accumulated precipitation. The accumulated precipitation over the Madeira was better represented with the 0.5 km horizontal resolution and occurred under four distinct synoptic situations. Different spatial patterns of the rainfall distribution over the Madeira have been identified.

  2. Satellite precipitation estimation over the Tibetan Plateau (United States)

    Porcu, F.; Gjoka, U.


    discussed. Relevant characteristics of precipitation fields are derived and analyzed, such as diurnal cycle, precipitation frequency, maximum rainrate distribution and dry areas detection. Interannual variability of precipitation pattern and intensity is also discussed.

  3. Human health implications of extreme precipitation events and water quality in California, USA: a canonical correlation analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Gershunov, PhD


    identify and quantify associations between precipitation and faecal bacteria. Findings: We found that the temporal evolutions of the leading canonical correlation patterns for precipitation and the faecal bacteria indicators were highly correlated. By looking at the Pearson correlation between precipitation and faecal bacteria canonical correlation patterns and the corresponding original time-series, we observed that the spatial pattern for all variables was strongest in southern California, and that it was mainly related to atmospheric river extreme precipitation events. Specific cases, such as peaks in precipitation and faecal pollution associated with an intense atmospheric river during January 7–12, 2005, were examined in detail. Overall, we found that precipitation over southern California explained over half of the weekly variability in faecal pollution in regional coastal waters. Interpretation: The associations between precipitation and water quality will be used to identify mechanisms of faecal pollutant delivery to coastal recreational waters via storm runoff and to track sources of pollution common in the region, such as sewage outfalls and homeless encampments near rivers and streams. This work should help to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather and delineate measures, such as an early warning system, that improve the response and resilience of human populations and ecosystems to a varying and changing climate. These results will also be used in the context of down-scaled climate change projections to estimate effects of future precipitation regime changes on coastal water quality and related health impacts. Funding: University of California Office of the President via Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives.

  4. Age Stereotypes and Self-Views Revisited: Patterns of Internalization and Projection Processes Across the Life Span. (United States)

    Kornadt, Anna E; Voss, Peggy; Rothermund, Klaus


    We investigated processes of age stereotype internalization into the self and projection of self-views onto age stereotypes from a life-span perspective, taking age-related differences in the relevance of life domains into account. Age stereotypes and self-views in eight life domains were assessed in a sample of N = 593 persons aged 30-80 years (T1) at two time points that were separated by a 4-year time interval. We estimated cross-lagged projection and internalization effects in multigroup structural equation models. Internalization and projection effects were contingent on age group and life domain: Internalization effects were strongest in the young and middle-aged groups and emerged in the domains family, personality, work, and leisure. Projection effects in different domains were most pronounced for older participants. Our findings suggest that the internalization of age stereotypes is triggered by domain-specific expectations of impending age-related changes and transitions during certain phases of the life span. Projection processes, however, seem to occur in response to changes that have already been experienced by the individual. Our study demonstrates the dynamic interrelation of age stereotypes and self-views across the life course and highlights the importance of a differentiated, life-span perspective for the understanding of these mechanisms. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail:

  5. Mechanisms and Attribution of Changes in Austral Summer Precipitation Related to the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (United States)

    Zilli, Marcia Terezinha

    Austral summer (DJF) precipitation over tropical South America (SA) is characterized by the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). The increase in atmospheric temperature and water vapor content over the SA during the last decades of the 20 th century could affect the duration and amplitude of the SAMS and the intensity of the SACZ. This research examines the spatial variability of precipitation trends over SE Brazil, focusing on the SACZ. More specifically, this study investigates trends in precipitation over Southeastern Brazil (SE Brazil) and examines changes in the position and intensity of the SACZ. SE Brazil is the most densely populated region in the country with a large portion of this population living in urban centers. The SACZ is important for agriculture and water supply for millions of people. One of the main goals of this research is to identify mechanisms associated with the observed changes in the characteristics of the SACZ during the last three decades of the 20th century, and examine the relative contribution of natural and anthropogenic forcing to precipitation trends. The first chapter investigates the pattern of spatial variability of precipitation trends over the coastal region of SE Brazil. This study shows that over the southern portion of the study area, precipitation is increasing due to the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Over the northern portion of the area, while the intensity of extreme events is increasing, the number of precipitating days is decreasing. This spatial pattern of precipitation trends suggests a poleward shift of the SACZ, which is investigated in the second chapter. Chapter 2 focuses on the underlying mechanisms associated with changes in precipitation intensity related to the position of the SACZ. Decadal variations in the mean state of the atmosphere suggest that the observed changes in precipitation over SE Brazil are associated with a

  6. Precipitation Reconstruction (PREC) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The PREC data set is an analysis of monthly precipitation constructed on a 2.5(o)lat/lon grid over the global for the period from 1948 to the present. The land...

  7. Final Results from A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Richard Stockton College of NJ and the FAA (United States)

    Trout, Joseph; Manson, J. Russell; King, David; Decicco, Nicolas; Prince, Alyssa; di Mercurio, Alexis; Rios, Manual


    Wake Vortex Turbulence is the turbulence generated by an aircraft in flight. This turbulence is created by vortices at the tips of the wing that may decay slowly and persist for several minutes after creation. These vortices and turbulence are hazardous to other aircraft in the vicinity. The strength, formation and lifetime of the turbulence and vortices are effected by many things including the weather. Here we present the final results of the pilot project to investigation of low level wind fields generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and an analysis of historical data. The findings from the historical data and the data simulations were used as inputs for the computational fluid dynamics model (OpenFoam) to show that the vortices could be simulated using OpenFoam. Presented here are the updated results from a research grant, ``A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Stockton University and the FAA''.

  8. Application of physical scaling towards downscaling climate model precipitation data (United States)

    Gaur, Abhishek; Simonovic, Slobodan P.


    Physical scaling (SP) method downscales climate model data to local or regional scales taking into consideration physical characteristics of the area under analysis. In this study, multiple SP method based models are tested for their effectiveness towards downscaling North American regional reanalysis (NARR) daily precipitation data. Model performance is compared with two state-of-the-art downscaling methods: statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and generalized linear modeling (GLM). The downscaled precipitation is evaluated with reference to recorded precipitation at 57 gauging stations located within the study region. The spatial and temporal robustness of the downscaling methods is evaluated using seven precipitation based indices. Results indicate that SP method-based models perform best in downscaling precipitation followed by GLM, followed by the SDSM model. Best performing models are thereafter used to downscale future precipitations made by three global circulation models (GCMs) following two emission scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 over the twenty-first century. The downscaled future precipitation projections indicate an increase in mean and maximum precipitation intensity as well as a decrease in the total number of dry days. Further an increase in the frequency of short (1-day), moderately long (2-4 day), and long (more than 5-day) precipitation events is projected.

  9. Promoting Art through Technology, Education and Research of Natural Sciences (PATTERNS) across Wyoming, A Wyoming NSF EPSCoR Funded Project (United States)

    Gellis, B. S.; McElroy, B. J.


    PATTERNS across Wyoming is a science and art project that promotes new and innovative approaches to STEM education and outreach, helping to re-contextualize how educators think about creative knowledge, and how to reach diverse audiences through informal education. The convergence of art, science and STEM outreach efforts is vital to increasing the presence of art in geosciences, developing multidisciplinary student research opportunities, expanding creative STEM thinking, and generating creative approaches of visualizing scientific data. A major goal of this project is to train art students to think critically about the value of scientific and artistic inquiry. PATTERNS across Wyoming makes science tangible to Wyoming citizens through K-14 art classrooms, and promotes novel maker-based art explorations centered around Wyoming's geosciences. The first PATTERNS across Wyoming scientific learning module (SIM) is a fish-tank sized flume that recreates natural patterns in sand as a result of fluid flow and sediment transport. It will help promotes the understanding of river systems found across Wyoming (e.g. Green, Yellowstone, Snake). This SIM, and the student artwork inspired by it, will help to visualize environmental-water changes in the central Rocky Mountains and will provide the essential inspiration and tools for Wyoming art students to design biological-driven creative explorations. Each art class will receive different fluvial system conditions, allowing for greater understanding of river system interactions. Artwork will return to the University of Wyoming for a STE{A}M Exhibition inspired by Wyoming's varying fluvial systems. It is our hope that new generations of science and art critical thinkers will not only explore questions of `why' and `how' scientific phenomena occur, but also `how' to better predict, conserve and study invaluable artifacts, and visualize conditions which allow for better control of scientific outcomes and public understanding.

  10. Statistical evaluation of the performance of gridded monthly precipitation products from reanalysis data, satellite estimates, and merged analyses over China (United States)

    Deng, Xueliang; Nie, Suping; Deng, Weitao; Cao, Weihua


    In this study, we compared the following four different gridded monthly precipitation products: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction version 2 (NCEP-2) reanalysis data, the satellite-based Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH) data, the merged satellite-gauge Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, and the merged satellite-gauge-model data from the Beijing Climate Center Merged Estimation of Precipitation (BMEP). We evaluated the performances of these products using monthly precipitation observations spanning the period of January 2003 to December 2013 from a dense, national, rain gauge network in China. Our assessment involved several statistical techniques, including spatial pattern, temporal variation, bias, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and correlation coefficient (CC) analysis. The results show that NCEP-2, GPCP, and BMEP generally overestimate monthly precipitation at the national scale and CMORPH underestimates it. However, all of the datasets successfully characterized the northwest to southeast increase in the monthly precipitation over China. Because they include precipitation gauge information from the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) network, GPCP and BMEP have much smaller biases, lower RMSEs, and higher CCs than NCEP-2 and CMORPH. When the seasonal and regional variations are considered, NCEP-2 has a larger error over southern China during the summer. CMORPH poorly reproduces the magnitude of the precipitation over southeastern China and the temporal correlation over western and northwestern China during all seasons. BMEP has a lower RMSE and higher CC than GPCP over eastern and southern China, where the station network is dense. In contrast, BMEP has a lower CC than GPCP over western and northwestern China, where the gauge network is relatively sparse.

  11. Associations of key diet-quality indexes with mortality in the Multiethnic Cohort: the Dietary Patterns Methods Project. (United States)

    Harmon, Brook E; Boushey, Carol J; Shvetsov, Yurii B; Ettienne, Reynolette; Reedy, Jill; Wilkens, Lynne R; Le Marchand, Loic; Henderson, Brian E; Kolonel, Laurence N


    Healthy dietary patterns have been linked positively with health and longevity. However, prospective studies in diverse populations in the United States addressing dietary patterns and mortality are limited. We assessed the ability of the following 4 diet-quality indexes [the Healthy Eating Index-2010 (HEI-2010), the Alternative HEI-2010 (AHEI-2010), the alternate Mediterranean diet score (aMED), and the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH)] to predict the reduction in risk of mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer. White, African American, Native Hawaiian, Japanese American, and Latino adults (n = 215,782) from the Multiethnic Cohort completed a quantitative food-frequency questionnaire. Scores for each dietary index were computed and divided into quintiles for men and women. Mortality was documented over 13-18 y of follow-up. HRs and 95% CIs were computed by using adjusted Cox models. High HEI-2010, AHEI-2010, aMED, and DASH scores were all inversely associated with risk of mortality from all causes, CVD, and cancer in both men and women (P-trend dietary pattern that achieves a high diet-quality index score is associated with lower risk of mortality from all causes, CVD, and cancer in adult men and women. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  12. Detection of the relationship between peak temperature and extreme precipitation (United States)

    Yu, Y.; Liu, J.; Zhiyong, Y.


    Under the background of climate change and human activities, the characteristics and pattern of precipitation have changed significantly in many regions. As the political and cultural center of China, the structure and character of precipitation in Jingjinji District has varied dramatically in recent years. In this paper, the daily precipitation data throughout the period 1960-2013 are selected for analyzing the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation. The results indicate that the frequency and intensity of precipitation presents an increasing trend. Based on the precipitation data, the maximum, minimum and mean precipitation in different temporal and spatial scales is calculated respectively. The temporal and spatial variation of temperature is obtained by using statistical methods. The relationship between temperature and precipitation in different range is analyzed. The curve relates daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing at the low-medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. The relationship between extreme precipitation is stronger in downtown than that in suburbs.

  13. Beyond Precipitation: Physiographic Gradients Dictate the Relative Importance of Environmental Drivers on Savanna Vegetation (United States)

    Campo-Bescós, Miguel A.; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Kaplan, David A.; Southworth, Jane; Zhu, Likai; Waylen, Peter R.


    Background Understanding the drivers of large-scale vegetation change is critical to managing landscapes and key to predicting how projected climate and land use changes will affect regional vegetation patterns. This study aimed to improve our understanding of the role, magnitude and spatial distribution of the key environmental factors driving vegetation change in southern African savanna, and how they vary across physiographic gradients. Methodology/Principal Findings We applied Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA), a multivariate times series dimension reduction technique to ten years of monthly remote sensing data (MODIS-derived normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) and a suite of environmental covariates: precipitation, mean and maximum temperature, soil moisture, relative humidity, fire and potential evapotranspiration. Monthly NDVI was described by cyclic seasonal variation with distinct spatiotemporal patterns in different physiographic regions. Results support existing work emphasizing the importance of precipitation, soil moisture and fire on NDVI, but also reveal overlooked effects of temperature and evapotranspiration, particularly in regions with higher mean annual precipitation. Critically, spatial distributions of the weights of environmental covariates point to a transition in the importance of precipitation and soil moisture (strongest in grass-dominated regions with precipitation950 mm). Conclusions/Significance We quantified the combined spatiotemporal effects of an available suite of environmental drivers on NDVI across a large and diverse savanna region. The analysis supports known drivers of savanna vegetation but also uncovers important roles of temperature and evapotranspiration. Results highlight the utility of applying the DFA approach to remote sensing products for regional analyses of landscape change in the context of global environmental change. With the dramatic increase in global change research, this methodology augurs well for

  14. Developing a Framework for Seamless Prediction of Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States. (United States)

    Rosendahl, D. H.; Ćwik, P.; Martin, E. R.; Basara, J. B.; Brooks, H. E.; Furtado, J. C.; Homeyer, C. R.; Lazrus, H.; Mcpherson, R. A.; Mullens, E.; Richman, M. B.; Robinson-Cook, A.


    Extreme precipitation events cause significant damage to homes, businesses, infrastructure, and agriculture, as well as many injures and fatalities as a result of fast-moving water or waterborne diseases. In the USA, these natural hazard events claimed the lives of more than 300 people during 2015 - 2016 alone, with total damage reaching $24.4 billion. Prior studies of extreme precipitation events have focused on the sub-daily to sub-weekly timeframes. However, many decisions for planning, preparing and resilience-building require sub-seasonal to seasonal timeframes (S2S; 14 to 90 days), but adequate forecasting tools for prediction do not exist. Therefore, the goal of this newly funded project is an enhancement in understanding of the large-scale forcing and dynamics of S2S extreme precipitation events in the United States, and improved capability for modeling and predicting such events. Here, we describe the project goals, objectives, and research activities that will take place over the next 5 years. In this project, a unique team of scientists and stakeholders will identify and understand weather and climate processes connected with the prediction of S2S extreme precipitation events by answering these research questions: 1) What are the synoptic patterns associated with, and characteristic of, S2S extreme precipitation evens in the contiguous U.S.? 2) What role, if any, do large-scale modes of climate variability play in modulating these events? 3) How predictable are S2S extreme precipitation events across temporal scales? 4) How do we create an informative prediction of S2S extreme precipitation events for policymaking and planing? This project will use observational data, high-resolution radar composites, dynamical climate models and workshops that engage stakeholders (water resource managers, emergency managers and tribal environmental professionals) in co-production of knowledge. The overarching result of this project will be predictive models to reduce of

  15. Relação do padrão sazonal da vegetação com a precipitação na região de cerrado da Amazônia Legal, usando índices espectrais de vegetação Relationship between vegetation seasonal pattern and precipitation in the cerrado region by spectral vegetation indexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Alberto Bustamante Becerra


    from 1969 to 2005. The results of the precipitation analysis show that the study areas exhibited a high seasonality with a dry season from May to September. The analysis of the VI showed that the seasonal dynamic of the savanna formations and the converted areas were similar. The seasonal pattern of these LULC types follows the precipitation pattern, when the lowest VI values were recorded in August of 2004. Differently of these LULC types, forest formations do not fitted to the precipitation pattern, this LULC type keep similar VI values along year with light decrease in September of 2004.

  16. Enhancing the Effectiveness of Carbon Dioxide Flooding by Managing Asphaltene Precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deo, M.D.


    The objective of this project was to identify conditions at which carbon dioxide induced precipitation occurred in crude oils. Establishing compositions of the relevant liquid and solid phases was planned. Other goals of the project were to determine if precipitation occurred in cores and to implement thermodynamic and compositional models to examine the phenomenon. Exploring kinetics of precipitation was also one of the project goals. Crude oil from the Rangely Field (eastern Colorado) was used as a prototype.

  17. Magnetite precipitation and characterisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joyce, A.; Garside, J.; Ivens, R.


    Magnetite (Fe 3 O 4 ) precipitation was investigated as a possible alternative treatment process to the conventional ferric hydroxide for removal of actinides from radioactive effluents. This offered the possibility of improved dewatering of filtered residues. Whilst a poor quality magnetite could be produced from deoxygenated ferrous/ferric solutions, all attempts to prepare magnetite from effluent simulates were unsuccessful. The failure was attributed to the presence of high nitrate and other interfering ions. (author)

  18. Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon by dynamic downscaling: Moisture budget analysis (United States)

    Jung, Chun-Yong; Shin, Ho-Jeong; Jang, Chan Joo; Kim, Hyung-Jin


    The summer monsoon considerably affects water resource and natural hazards including flood and drought in East Asia, one of the world's most densely populated area. In this study, we investigate future changes in summer precipitation over East Asia induced by global warming through dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecast model. We have selected a global model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 based on an objective evaluation for East Asian summer monsoon and applied its climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario to a pseudo global warming method. Unlike the previous studies that focused on a qualitative description of projected precipitation changes over East Asia, this study tried to identify the physical causes of the precipitation changes by analyzing a local moisture budget. Projected changes in precipitation over the eastern foothills area of Tibetan Plateau including Sichuan Basin and Yangtze River displayed a contrasting pattern: a decrease in its northern area and an increase in its southern area. A local moisture budget analysis indicated the precipitation increase over the southern area can be mainly attributed to an increase in horizontal wind convergence and surface evaporation. On the other hand, the precipitation decrease over the northern area can be largely explained by horizontal advection of dry air from the northern continent and by divergent wind flow. Regional changes in future precipitation in East Asia are likely to be attributed to different mechanisms which can be better resolved by regional dynamical downscaling.

  19. Mediterranean Alcohol-Drinking Pattern and the Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease and Cardiovascular Mortality: The SUN Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aitor Hernandez-Hernandez


    Full Text Available Background: We assessed the still unclear effect of the overall alcohol-drinking pattern, beyond the amount of alcohol consumed, on the incidence of cardiovascular clinical disease (CVD. Methods: We followed 14,651 participants during up to 14 years. We built a score assessing simultaneously seven dimensions of alcohol consumption to capture the conformity to a traditional Mediterranean alcohol-drinking pattern (MADP. It positively scored moderate alcohol intake, alcohol intake spread out over the week, low spirit consumption, preference for wine, red wine consumption, wine consumed during meals and avoidance of binge drinking. Results: During 142,177 person-years of follow-up, 127 incident cases of CVD (myocardial infarction, stroke or cardiovascular mortality were identified. Compared with the category of better conformity with the MADP, the low-adherence group exhibited a non-significantly higher risk (HR of total CVD ((95% CI = 1.55 (0.58–4.16. This direct association with a departure from the traditional MADP was even stronger for cardiovascular mortality (HR (95% CI = 3.35 (0.77–14.5. Nevertheless, all these associations were statistically non-significant. Conclusion: Better conformity with the MADP seemed to be associated with lower cardiovascular risk in most point estimates; however, no significant results were found and more powered studies are needed to clarify the role of the MADP on CVD.

  20. Pattern of Corticospinal Projections Defined by Brain Mapping During Resective Epilepsy Surgery in a Patient with Congenital Hemiparesis and Intractable Epilepsy. (United States)

    Yang, Chen-Ya; Chen, Hsin-Hung; Chen, Chien; Chiu, Jan-Wei; Chou, Chen-Liang; Yang, Tsui-Fen


    Congenital or early-onset brain structural lesions often cause contralateral hemiparesis, cognitive deficits, developmental delays, and seizures. Seizure is the most debilitating condition, as it greatly impairs quality of life in both the affected individuals and their caregivers and prevents them from active social participation. A 34-year-old man with hemiparesis and early-onset seizures since childhood owing to a congenital brain lesion developed intractable seizures in the last 2 years and was subsequently admitted for resective epileptic surgery. During the operation, we employed an innovative intraoperative neurophysiologic monitoring technique. In contrast to routine application for transcranial stimulation, we recorded compound muscle action potentials over the bilateral limb muscles simultaneously, instead of over the contralateral muscles only, to determine the patterns of the corticospinal projections. Transcranial stimulation over the bilateral hemispheres was applied before craniotomy, and direct cortical stimulation over the lesioned hemisphere was applied after craniotomy. By integrating both approaches, we could first identify the pattern of corticospinal projections before craniotomy and then accurately define the noneloquent area, which guided the resection to successfully accomplish the surgical goal. This technique is simple because no patient participation is required. We believe that it has the potential to replace conventional preoperative functional magnetic resonance imaging and transcranial magnetic stimulation in resective epilepsy surgery, particularly for young patients. Not only can it improve the safety of surgical procedures, but also it can help predict functional outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Atmospheric forcing in the occurrence of precipitation extremes in Iberia: comparison between the eastern and western sectors (United States)

    Santos, J. A.; Mendes, A. R.


    The occurrence of severe precipitation deficits in the Iberian Peninsula has major socio-economic and environmental impacts. Several previous studies emphasized the leading role of the large-scale atmospheric flow in the occurrence of long periods with significant precipitation lacks. However, due to the high complexity of the Iberian orography, the sensitivity of the local rain-generating mechanisms to large-scale anomalies is remarkably different from region to region. A principal component analysis of the annual precipitation amounts recorded at a network of meteorological stations over the entire peninsula for the period 1961-1998 corroborates this heterogeneity. With particular significance is the contrast between the western and eastern sectors of the peninsula. In fact, taking into account earlier studies, precipitation in western Iberia is strongly related to large-scale atmospheric patterns over the North Atlantic. On the contrary, precipitation over eastern Iberia is much less associated with these large-scale forcing patterns, but much more linked to local/regional mechanisms. In order to test these hypotheses, eight meteorological stations, four in the western half (Porto, Bragança, Lisboa and Beja) and four in the eastern half (Barcelona, Valencia, Tortosa and Zaragoza) of Iberia are selected taking into account, firstly, the geographical location, and secondly the quality and homogeneity of the respective time series. A set of extremely wet/dry seasons was subsequently chosen for each weather station separately, taking into account the 90th percentile of the respective empirical distributions. The analysis of the different atmospheric fields (precipitation rates, convective precipitation, precipitable water, specific humidity, relative humidity, surface temperature, sea surface pressure, geopotential heights, wind components and vorticity at different isobaric levels) is undertaken by using data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction

  2. Precipitation in partially stabilized zirconia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bansal, G.K.


    Transmission electron microscopy was used to study the substructure of partially stabilized ZrO 2 (PSZ) samples, i.e., 2-phase systems containing both cubic and monoclinic modifications of zirconia, after various heat treatments. Monoclinic ZrO 2 exists as (1) isolated grains within the polycrystalline aggregate (a grain- boundary phase) and (2) small plate-like particles within cubic grains. These intragranular precipitates are believed to contribute to the useful properties of PSZ via a form of precipitation hardening. These precipitates initially form as tetragonal ZrO 2 , with a habit plane parallel to the brace 100 brace matrix planes. The orientation relations between the tetragonal precipitates and the cubic matrix are brace 100 brace/sub matrix/ 2 parallel brace 100 brace /sub precipitate/ or (001)/sub precipitate/ and broken bracket 100 broken bracket/sub matrix/ 2 parallel broken bracket 100 broken bracket/sub precipitate/ or [001]/sub precipitate/. (U.S.)

  3. Hourly Precipitation Data (HPD) Publication (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hourly Precipitation Data (HPD) Publication is archived and available from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). This publication contains hourly precipitation...

  4. Few multiyear precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship. (United States)

    Estiarte, Marc; Vicca, Sara; Peñuelas, Josep; Bahn, Michael; Beier, Claus; Emmett, Bridget A; Fay, Philip A; Hanson, Paul J; Hasibeder, Roland; Kigel, Jaime; Kröel-Dulay, Gyorgy; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Lellei-Kovács, Eszter; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Ogaya, Romà; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Reinsch, Sabine; Sala, Osvaldo E; Schmidt, Inger Kappel; Sternberg, Marcelo; Tielbörger, Katja; Tietema, Albert; Janssens, Ivan A


    Well-defined productivity-precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity-precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation-reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effects of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation-manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity-precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. The majority of experiments (72%) showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation-reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with

  5. Precipitation Indices Low Countries (United States)

    van Engelen, A. F. V.; Ynsen, F.; Buisman, J.; van der Schrier, G.


    Since 1995, KNMI published a series of books(1), presenting an annual reconstruction of weather and climate in the Low Countries, covering the period AD 763-present, or roughly, the last millennium. The reconstructions are based on the interpretation of documentary sources predominantly and comparison with other proxies and instrumental observations. The series also comprises a number of classifications. Amongst them annual classifications for winter and summer temperature and for winter and summer dryness-wetness. The classification of temperature have been reworked into peer reviewed (2) series (AD 1000-present) of seasonal temperatures and temperature indices, the so called LCT (Low Countries Temperature) series, now incorporated in the Millennium databases. Recently we started a study to convert the dryness-wetness classifications into a series of precipitation; the so called LCP (Low Countries Precipitation) series. A brief outline is given here of the applied methodology and preliminary results. The WMO definition for meteorological drought has been followed being that a period is called wet respectively dry when the amount of precipitation is considerable more respectively less than usual (normal). To gain a more quantitative insight for four locations, geographically spread over the Low Countries area (De Bilt, Vlissingen, Maastricht and Uccle), we analysed the statistics of daily precipitation series, covering the period 1900-present. This brought us to the following definition, valid for the Low Countries: A period is considered as (very) dry respectively (very) wet if over a continuous period of at least 60 days (~two months) cq 90 days (~three months) on at least two out of the four locations 50% less resp. 50% more than the normal amount for the location (based on the 1961-1990 normal period) has been measured. This results into the following classification into five drought classes hat could be applied to non instrumental observations: Very wet period


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sobol' Il'ya Stanislavovich


    Full Text Available Presently, effective regulations employed in the Russian Federation recommend the use of the methods developed by E.G. Kachuchin, G.S. Zolotarev, I.A. Pecherkin, etc. for the projection of patterns of reorganization of coastlines of water reservoirs. One of these methods, developed by E.G. Kachugin, belongs to the group of power methods based on the hypothesis that the amplitudes of destruction of the coast are proportionate to the total wave energy alongside the coastline. The Kachugin method was reworked into a computer-based two-dimensional engineering model of reorganization of the abrasion shore. The model generates alternative projections. It simulates the processes of washout and accumulation of soil in the coastal area and solves the problem of predicting the potential profile of the shore within a pre-set time period or until the abrasion is smoothed away in the course of formation of coastal shallows. The model testing has proven its efficiency in solving the engineering problems of projecting the line of reservoir abrasion shores with a high degree of reliability.

  7. Ion irradiation-induced precipitation of Cr23C6 at dislocation loops in austenitic steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin, Shuoxue; Guo, Liping; Luo, Fengfeng; Yao, Zhongwen; Ma, Shuli; Tang, Rui


    The irradiation-induced precipitates in argon ion-irradiated austenitic stainless steel at 550 °C were examined via transmission electron microscopy. The selected-area electron diffraction patterns of precipitates indicated unambiguously that the precipitates were Cr 23 C 6 carbides. It was observed directly for the first time that irradiation-induced Cr 23 C 6 precipitates formed at dislocation loops in austenitic stainless steel, and coarsened with increasing irradiation dose.

  8. A global gridded dataset of daily precipitation going back to 1950, ideal for analysing precipitation extremes (United States)

    Contractor, S.; Donat, M.; Alexander, L. V.


    Reliable observations of precipitation are necessary to determine past changes in precipitation and validate models, allowing for reliable future projections. Existing gauge based gridded datasets of daily precipitation and satellite based observations contain artefacts and have a short length of record, making them unsuitable to analyse precipitation extremes. The largest limiting factor for the gauge based datasets is a dense and reliable station network. Currently, there are two major data archives of global in situ daily rainfall data, first is Global Historical Station Network (GHCN-Daily) hosted by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the other by Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) part of the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD). We combine the two data archives and use automated quality control techniques to create a reliable long term network of raw station data, which we then interpolate using block kriging to create a global gridded dataset of daily precipitation going back to 1950. We compare our interpolated dataset with existing global gridded data of daily precipitation: NOAA Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) Global V1.0 and GPCC Full Data Daily Version 1.0, as well as various regional datasets. We find that our raw station density is much higher than other datasets. To avoid artefacts due to station network variability, we provide multiple versions of our dataset based on various completeness criteria, as well as provide the standard deviation, kriging error and number of stations for each grid cell and timestep to encourage responsible use of our dataset. Despite our efforts to increase the raw data density, the in situ station network remains sparse in India after the 1960s and in Africa throughout the timespan of the dataset. Our dataset would allow for more reliable global analyses of rainfall including its extremes and pave the way for better global precipitation observations with lower and more transparent uncertainties.

  9. Ammonia-Oxidizing Archaea Are More Resistant Than Denitrifiers to Seasonal Precipitation Changes in an Acidic Subtropical Forest Soil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Chen


    Full Text Available Seasonal precipitation changes are increasingly severe in subtropical areas. However, the responses of soil nitrogen (N cycle and its associated functional microorganisms to such precipitation changes remain unclear. In this study, two projected precipitation patterns were manipulated: intensifying the dry-season drought (DD and extending the dry-season duration (ED but increasing the wet-season storms following the DD and ED treatment period. The effects of these two contrasting precipitation patterns on soil net N transformation rates and functional gene abundances were quantitatively assessed through a resistance index. Results showed that the resistance index of functional microbial abundance (-0.03 ± 0.08 was much lower than that of the net N transformation rate (0.55 ± 0.02 throughout the experiment, indicating that microbial abundance was more responsive to precipitation changes compared with the N transformation rate. Spring drought under the ED treatment significantly increased the abundances of both nitrifying (amoA and denitrifying genes (nirK, nirS, and nosZ, while changes in these gene abundances overlapped largely with control treatment during droughts in the dry season. Interestingly, the resistance index of the ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA amoA abundance was significantly higher than that of the denitrifying gene abundances, suggesting that AOA were more resistant to the precipitation changes. This was attributed to the stronger environmental adaptability and higher resource utilization efficiency of the AOA community, as indicated by the lack of correlations between AOA gene abundance and environmental factors [i.e., soil water content, ammonium (NH4+ and dissolved organic carbon concentrations] during the experiment.

  10. Characterization of increased persistence and intensity of precipitation in the northeastern United States (United States)

    Guilbert, Justin; Betts, Alan K.; Rizzo, Donna M.; Beckage, Brian; Bomblies, Arne


    We present evidence of increasing persistence in daily precipitation in the northeastern United States that suggests that global circulation changes are affecting regional precipitation patterns. Meteorological data from 222 stations in 10 northeastern states are analyzed using Markov chain parameter estimates to demonstrate that a significant mode of precipitation variability is the persistence of precipitation events. We find that the largest region-wide trend in wet persistence (i.e., the probability of precipitation in 1 day and given precipitation in the preceding day) occurs in June (+0.9% probability per decade over all stations). We also find that the study region is experiencing an increase in the magnitude of high-intensity precipitation events. The largest increases in the 95th percentile of daily precipitation occurred in April with a trend of +0.7 mm/d/decade. We discuss the implications of the observed precipitation signals for watershed hydrology and flood risk.

  11. Spatial variations of summer precipitation trends in South Korea, 1973-2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Heejun; Kwon, Won-Tae


    We have investigated the spatial patterns of trends in summer precipitation amount, intensity, and heavy precipitation for South Korea between 1973 and 2005. All stations show increasing trends in precipitation amount during the summer months, with the highest percentage of significant increase in June precipitation for the northern and central western part of South Korea. There is a significant increase in August precipitation for stations in the southeastern part of South Korea. Only a few stations exhibited significant upward trends in September precipitation. There is a weak to moderate spatial autocorrelation with the highest Moran's I value in June precipitation amount and August precipitation intensity. The number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 50 and 30 mm during the summer has increased at all stations. Observed trends are likely to be associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature anomalies, and orography, but detailed causes of these trends need further investigation

  12. Using GRACE to constrain precipitation amount over cold mountainous basins (United States)

    Behrangi, Ali; Gardner, Alex S.; Reager, John T.; Fisher, Joshua B.


    Despite the importance for hydrology and climate-change studies, current quantitative knowledge on the amount and distribution of precipitation in mountainous and high-elevation regions is limited due to instrumental and retrieval shortcomings. Here by focusing on two large endorheic basins in High Mountain Asia, we show that satellite gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)) can be used to provide an independent estimate of monthly accumulated precipitation using mass balance equation. Results showed that the GRACE-based precipitation estimate has the highest agreement with most of the commonly used precipitation products in summer, but it deviates from them in cold months, when the other products are expected to have larger errors. It was found that most of the products capture about or less than 50% of the total precipitation estimated using GRACE in winter. Overall, Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) showed better agreement with GRACE estimate than other products. Yet on average GRACE showed 30% more annual precipitation than GPCP in the study basins. In basins of appropriate size with an absence of dense ground measurements, as is a typical case in cold mountainous regions, we find GRACE can be a viable alternative to constrain monthly and seasonal precipitation estimates from other remotely sensed precipitation products that show large bias.


    Fries, B.A.


    A plutonium separatory ore concentration procedure involving the use of a fluoride type of carrier is presented. An improvement is given in the derivation step in the process for plutonium recovery by carrier precipitation of plutonium values from solution with a lanthanum fluoride carrier precipitate and subsequent derivation from the resulting plutonium bearing carrier precipitate of an aqueous acidic plutonium-containing solution. The carrier precipitate is contacted with a concentrated aqueous solution of potassium carbonate to effect dissolution therein of at least a part of the precipitate, including the plutonium values. Any remaining precipitate is separated from the resulting solution and dissolves in an aqueous solution containing at least 20% by weight of potassium carbonate. The reacting solutions are combined, and an alkali metal hydroxide added to a concentration of at least 2N to precipitate lanthanum hydroxide concomitantly carrying plutonium values.

  14. Precipitation-generated oscillations in open cellular cloud fields. (United States)

    Feingold, Graham; Koren, Ilan; Wang, Hailong; Xue, Huiwen; Brewer, Wm Alan


    Cloud fields adopt many different patterns that can have a profound effect on the amount of sunlight reflected back to space, with important implications for the Earth's climate. These cloud patterns can be observed in satellite images of the Earth and often exhibit distinct cell-like structures associated with organized convection at scales of tens of kilometres. Recent evidence has shown that atmospheric aerosol particles-through their influence on precipitation formation-help to determine whether cloud fields take on closed (more reflective) or open (less reflective) cellular patterns. The physical mechanisms controlling the formation and evolution of these cells, however, are still poorly understood, limiting our ability to simulate realistically the effects of clouds on global reflectance. Here we use satellite imagery and numerical models to show how precipitating clouds produce an open cellular cloud pattern that oscillates between different, weakly stable states. The oscillations are a result of precipitation causing downward motion and outflow from clouds that were previously positively buoyant. The evaporating precipitation drives air down to the Earth's surface, where it diverges and collides with the outflows of neighbouring precipitating cells. These colliding outflows form surface convergence zones and new cloud formation. In turn, the newly formed clouds produce precipitation and new colliding outflow patterns that are displaced from the previous ones. As successive cycles of this kind unfold, convergence zones alternate with divergence zones and new cloud patterns emerge to replace old ones. The result is an oscillating, self-organized system with a characteristic cell size and precipitation frequency.

  15. The World Spatiotemporal Analytics and Mapping Project (WSTAMP): Discovering, Exploring, and Mapping Spatiotemporal Patterns Across Heterogenous Space-Time Data (United States)

    Morton, A.; Stewart, R.; Held, E.; Piburn, J.; Allen, M. R.; McManamay, R.; Sanyal, J.; Sorokine, A.; Bhaduri, B. L.


    Spatiotemporal (ST) analytics applied to major spatio-temporal data sources from major vendors such as USGS, NOAA, World Bank and World Health Organization have tremendous value in shedding light on the evolution of physical, cultural, and geopolitical landscapes on a local and global level. Especially powerful is the integration of these physical and cultural datasets across multiple and disparate formats, facilitating new interdisciplinary analytics and insights. Realizing this potential first requires an ST data model that addresses challenges in properly merging data from multiple authors, with evolving ontological perspectives, semantical differences, changing attributes, and content that is textual, numeric, categorical, and hierarchical. Equally challenging is the development of analytical and visualization approaches that provide a serious exploration of this integrated data while remaining accessible to practitioners with varied backgrounds. The WSTAMP project at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has yielded two major results in addressing these challenges: 1) development of the WSTAMP database, a significant advance in ST data modeling that integrates 16000+ attributes covering 200+ countries for over 50 years from over 30 major sources and 2) a novel online ST exploratory and analysis tool providing an array of modern statistical and visualization techniques for analyzing these data temporally, spatially, and spatiotemporally under a standard analytic workflow. We report on these advances, provide an illustrative case study, and inform how others may freely access the tool.

  16. Quantitative precipitation climatology over the Himalayas by using Precipitation Radar on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and a dense network of rain-gauges (United States)

    Yatagai, A.


    Quantified grid observation data at a reasonable resolution are indispensable for environmental monitoring as well as for predicting future change of mountain environment. However quantified datasets have not been available for the Himalayan region. Hence we evaluate climatological precipitation data around the Himalayas by using Precipitation Radar (PR) data acquired by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) over 10 years of observation. To validate and adjust these patterns, we used a dense network of rain gauges collected by the Asian Precipitation—Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE Water Resources) project ( We used more than 2600 stations which have more than 10-year monthly precipitation over the Himalayan region (75E-105E, 20-36N) including country data of Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Pakistan, India, Myanmar, and China. The region we studied is so topographically complicated that horizontal patterns are not uniform. Therefore, every path data of PR2A25 (near-surface rain) was averaged in a 0.05-degree grid and a 10-year monthly average was computed (hereafter we call PR). On the other hand, for rain-gauge, we first computed cell averages if each 0.05-degree grid cell has 10 years observation or more. Here we refer to the 0.05-degree rain-gauge climatology data as RG data. On the basis of comparisons between the RG and PR composite values, we defined the parameters of the regressions to correct the monthly climatology value based on the rain gauge observations. Compared with the RG, the PR systematically underestimated precipitation by 28-38% in summer (July-September). Significant correlation between TRMM/PR and rain-gauge data was found for all months, but the correlation is relatively low in winter. The relationship is investigated for different elevation zones, and the PR was found to underestimate RG data in most zones, except for certain zones in

  17. Precipitation response to the current ENSO variability in a warming world (United States)

    Bonfils, C.; Santer, B. D.; Phillips, T. J.; Marvel, K.; Leung, L.


    The major triggers of past and recent droughts include large modes of variability, such as ENSO, as well as specific and persistent patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs; Hoerling and Kumar, 2003, Shin et al. 2010, Schubert et al. 2009). However, alternative drought initiators are also anticipated in response to increasing greenhouse gases, potentially changing the relative contribution of ocean variability as drought initiator. They include the intensification of the current zonal wet-dry patterns (the thermodynamic mechanism, Held and Soden, 2006), a latitudinal redistribution of global precipitation (the dynamical mechanism, Seager et al. 2007, Seidel et al. 2008, Scheff and Frierson 2008) and a reduction of local soil moisture and precipitation recycling (the land-atmosphere argument). Our ultimate goal is to investigate whether the relative contribution of those mechanisms change over time in response to global warming. In this study, we first perform an EOF analysis of the 1900-1999 time series of observed global SST field and identify a simple ENSO-like (ENSOL) mode of SST variability. We show that this mode is well spatially and temporally correlated with observed worldwide regional precipitation and drought variability. We then develop concise metrics to examine the fidelity with which the CMIP5 coupled global climate models (CGCMs) capture this particular ENSO-like mode in the current climate, and their ability to replicate the observed teleconnections with precipitation. Based on the CMIP5 model projections of future climate change, we finally analyze the potential temporal variations in ENSOL to be anticipated under further global warming, as well as their associated teleconnections with precipitation (pattern, amplitude, and total response). Overall, our approach allows us to determine what will be the effect of the current ENSO-like variability (i.e., as measured with instrumental observations) on precipitation in a warming world. This

  18. A novel electrostatic precipitator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Minkang; Wang, Liqian; Lin, Zhigui


    ESP (Electrostatic Precipitation) has been widely used in the mining, building materials, metallurgy and power industries. Dust particles or other harmful particles from the airstream can be precipitated by ESP with great collecting efficiency. Because of its' large size, high cost and energy consumption, the scope of application of ESP has been limited to a certain extent. By means of the theory of electrostatics and fluid dynamics, a corona assembly with a self-cleaning function and a threshold voltage automatic tracking technology has been developed and used in ESP. It is indicated that compared with conventional ESP, the electric field length has been reduced to 1/10 of the original, the current density on the collecting electrode increased 3-5 times at the maximum, the approach speed of dust particles in the electric field towards the collecting electrode is 4 times that in conventional ESP and the electric field wind speed may be enhanced by 2-3 times the original. Under the premise of ESP having a high efficiency of dust removal, equipment volume may be actually reduced to 1/5 to 1/10 of the original volume and energy consumption may be reduced by more than 50%.

  19. Dietary patterns and cardiovascular risk factors in adolescents and young adults: the Northern Ireland Young Hearts Project. (United States)

    McCourt, Hannah J; Draffin, Claire R; Woodside, Jayne V; Cardwell, Chris R; Young, Ian S; Hunter, Steven J; Murray, Liam J; Boreham, Colin A; Gallagher, Alison M; Neville, Charlotte E; McKinley, Michelle C


    Dietary pattern (DP) analysis allows examination of the combined effects of nutrients and foods on the markers of CVD. Very few studies have examined these relationships during adolescence or young adulthood. Traditional CVD risk biomarkers were analysed in 12-15-year-olds (n 487; Young Hearts (YH)1) and again in the same individuals at 20-25 years of age (n 487; YH3). Based on 7 d diet histories, in the present study, DP analysis was performed using a posteriori principal component analysis for the YH3 cohort and the a priori Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) was calculated for both YH1 and YH3 cohorts. In the a posteriori DP analysis, YH3 participants adhering most closely to the 'healthy' DP were found to have lower pulse wave velocity (PWV) and homocysteine concentrations, the 'sweet tooth' DP were found to have increased LDL concentrations, and decreased HDL concentrations, [corrected] the 'drinker/social' DP were found to have lower LDL and homocysteine concentrations, but exhibited a trend towards a higher TAG concentration, and finally the 'Western' DP were found to have elevated homocysteine and HDL concentrations. In the a priori dietary score analysis, YH3 participants adhering most closely to the Mediterranean diet were found to exhibit a trend towards a lower PWV. MDS did not track between YH1 and YH3, and nor was there a longitudinal relationship between the change in the MDS and the change in CVD risk biomarkers. In conclusion, cross-sectional analysis revealed that some associations between DP and CVD risk biomarkers were already evident in the young adult population, namely the association between the healthy DP (and the MDS) and PWV; however, no longitudinal associations were observed between these relatively short time periods.

  20. Patterns of active and passive smoking, and associated factors, in the South-east Anatolian Project (SEAP region in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ceylan Ali


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Smoking is an important health threat in Turkey. This study aimed to determine the frequency of and main factors associated with smoking in persons of 15 years and over, and the frequency of passive smoking in homes in the South-east Anatolian Project (SEAP Region in Turkey. Methods A cross sectional design was employed. The sample waschosen by the State Institute of Statistics using a stratified cluster probability sampling method. 1126 houses representing the SEAP Region were visited. Questionnaires about tobacco smoking and related factors were applied to 2166 women and 1906 men (of 15 years old and above in their homes. Face-to-face interview methods were employed. Participants were classified as current, ex, and non-smokers. The presence of a regular daily smoker in a house was used as an indication of passive smoking. The chi-square andlogistic regressionanalysis methods were used for the statistical analysis. Results The prevalence of smoking, in those of 15 years and over, was 11.8% in women and 49.7% in men. The prevalence of current smokers was higher in urban (34.5 % than in rural (22.8 % regions. The mean of total cigarette consumption was 6.5 packs/year in women and 17.9 packs/year in men. There was at least one current smoker in 70.1% of the houses. Conclusion Smoking is a serious problem in the South-eastern Anatolian Region. Male gender, middle age, a high level of education and urban residency were most strongly associated with smoking.

  1. Regionalization of precipitation characteristics in Iran's Lake Urmia basin (United States)

    Fazel, Nasim; Berndtsson, Ronny; Uvo, Cintia Bertacchi; Madani, Kaveh; Kløve, Bjørn


    Lake Urmia in northwest Iran, once one of the largest hypersaline lakes in the world, has shrunk by almost 90% in area and 80% in volume during the last four decades. To improve the understanding of regional differences in water availability throughout the region and to refine the existing information on precipitation variability, this study investigated the spatial pattern of precipitation for the Lake Urmia basin. Daily rainfall time series from 122 precipitation stations with different record lengths were used to extract 15 statistical descriptors comprising 25th percentile, 75th percentile, and coefficient of variation for annual and seasonal total precipitation. Principal component analysis in association with cluster analysis identified three main homogeneous precipitation groups in the lake basin. The first sub-region (group 1) includes stations located in the center and southeast; the second sub-region (group 2) covers mostly northern and northeastern part of the basin, and the third sub-region (group 3) covers the western and southern edges of the basin. Results of principal component (PC) and clustering analyses showed that seasonal precipitation variation is the most important feature controlling the spatial pattern of precipitation in the lake basin. The 25th and 75th percentiles of winter and autumn are the most important variables controlling the spatial pattern of the first rotated principal component explaining about 32% of the total variance. Summer and spring precipitation variations are the most important variables in the second and third rotated principal components, respectively. Seasonal variation in precipitation amount and seasonality are explained by topography and influenced by the lake and westerly winds that are related to the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Despite using incomplete time series with different lengths, the identified sub-regions are physically meaningful.

  2. Climate Drivers of Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in the Source Region of Yangtze River (United States)

    Du, Y.; Berndtsson, R.; An, D.; Yuan, F.


    Variability of precipitation regime has significant influence on the environment sustainability in the source region of Yangtze River, especially when the vegetation degradation and biodiversity reduction have already occurred. Understanding the linkage between variability of local precipitation and global teleconnection patterns is essential for water resources management. Based on physical reasoning, indices of the climate drivers can provide a practical way of predicting precipitation. Due to high seasonal variability of precipitation, climate drivers of the seasonal precipitation also varies. However, few reports have gone through the teleconnections between large scale patterns with seasonal precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River. The objectives of this study are therefore (1) assessment of temporal trend and spatial variability of precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River; (2) identification of climate indices with strong influence on seasonal precipitation anomalies; (3) prediction of seasonal precipitation based on revealed climate indices. Principal component analysis and Spearman rank correlation were used to detect significant relationships. A feed-forward artificial neural network(ANN) was developed to predict seasonal precipitation using significant correlated climate indices. Different influencing climate indices were revealed for precipitation in each season, with significant level and lag times. Significant influencing factors were selected to be the predictors for ANN model. With correlation coefficients between observed and simulated precipitation over 0.5, the results were eligible to predict the precipitation of spring, summer and winter using teleconnections, which can improve integrated water resources management in the source region of Yangtze River.

  3. Predicting Precipitation in Darwin: An Experiment with Markov Chains (United States)

    Boncek, John; Harden, Sig


    As teachers of first-year college mathematics and science students, the authors are constantly on the lookout for simple classroom exercises that improve their students' analytical and computational skills. In this article, the authors outline a project entitled "Predicting Precipitation in Darwin." In this project, students: (1) analyze…

  4. Pareto-Optimal Estimates of California Precipitation Change (United States)

    Langenbrunner, Baird; Neelin, J. David


    In seeking constraints on global climate model projections under global warming, one commonly finds that different subsets of models perform well under different objective functions, and these trade-offs are difficult to weigh. Here a multiobjective approach is applied to a large set of subensembles generated from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 ensemble. We use observations and reanalyses to constrain tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, upper level zonal winds in the midlatitude Pacific, and California precipitation. An evolutionary algorithm identifies the set of Pareto-optimal subensembles across these three measures, and these subensembles are used to constrain end-of-century California wet season precipitation change. This methodology narrows the range of projections throughout California, increasing confidence in estimates of positive mean precipitation change. Finally, we show how this technique complements and generalizes emergent constraint approaches for restricting uncertainty in end-of-century projections within multimodel ensembles using multiple criteria for observational constraints.

  5. Temporal variation of extreme precipitation events in Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Egidijus Rimkus


    Full Text Available Heavy precipitation events in Lithuania for the period 1961-2008 were analysed. The spatial distribution and dynamics of precipitation extremes were investigated. Positive tendencies and in some cases statistically significant trends were determined for the whole of Lithuania. Atmospheric circulation processes were derived using Hess & Brezowski's classification of macrocirculation forms. More than one third of heavy precipitation events (37% were observed when the atmospheric circulation was zonal. The location of the central part of a cyclone (WZ weather condition subtype over Lithuania is the most common synoptic situation (27% during heavy precipitation events. Climatic projections according to outputs of the CCLM model are also presented in this research. The analysis shows that the recurrence of heavy precipitation events in the 21st century will increase significantly (by up to 22% in Lithuania.

  6. Optimization of precipitation conditions of thorium oxalate precipitate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pazukhin, Eh.M.; Smirnova, E.A.; Krivokhatskij, A.S.; Pazukhina, Yu.L.; Kiselev, P.P.


    Thorium precipitation in the form of difficultly soluble oxalate has been investigated. The equation binding the concentration of metal with the nitric acid in the initial solution and quantity of a precipitator necessary for minimization of desired product losses is derived. The graphical solution of this equation for a case, when the oxalic acid with 0.78 mol/l concentration is the precipitator, is presented

  7. Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation and drought in Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. S. Martins


    Full Text Available The spatial variability of precipitation and drought are investigated for Portugal using monthly precipitation from 74 stations and minimum and maximum temperature from 27 stations, covering the common period of 1941–2006. Seasonal precipitation and the corresponding percentages in the year, as well as the precipitation concentration index (PCI, was computed for all 74 stations and then used as an input matrix for an R-mode principal component analysis to identify the precipitation patterns. The standardized precipitation index at 3 and 12 month time scales were computed for all stations, whereas the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI and the modified PDSI for Mediterranean conditions (MedPDSI were computed for the stations with temperature data. The spatial patterns of drought over Portugal were identified by applying the S-mode principal component analysis coupled with varimax rotation to the drought indices matrices. The result revealed two distinct sub-regions in the country relative to both precipitation regimes and drought variability. The analysis of time variability of the PC scores of all drought indices allowed verifying that there is no linear trend indicating drought aggravation or decrease. In addition, the analysis shows that results for SPI-3, SPI-12, PDSI and MedPDSI are coherent among them.

  8. Alcohol Consumption Patterns among Adolescents are Related to Family Structure and Exposure to Drunkenness within the Family: Results from the SEYLE Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Rüütel


    Full Text Available There is expedient evidence showing that differences in adolescent alcohol consumption and other risk-behaviour depend on both family structure and family member drunkenness exposure. Data were obtained among adolescents (N = 12,115, mean age 14.9 ± 0.89 in Austria, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Romania, Slovenia and Spain within the European Union’s 7th Framework Programme funded project, ‘Saving and Empowering Young Lives in Europe (SEYLE’. The current study reveals how adolescents’ alcohol consumption patterns are related to their family structure and having seen their family member drunk. The results revealed statistically significant differences in adolescent alcohol consumption depending on whether the adolescent lives in a family with both birth parents, in a single-parent family or in a family with one birth parent and one step-parent. The study also revealed that the abstaining from alcohol percentage among adolescents was greater in families with both birth parents compared to other family types. The study also showed that the more often adolescents see their family member drunk the more they drink themselves. There is no difference in adolescent drinking patterns whether they see their family member drunk once a month or once a week. This study gives an insight on which subgroups of adolescents are at heightened risk of alcohol abuse and that decrease of family member drunkenness may have positive effects on the drinking habits of their children.

  9. Experimental droughts: Are precipitation variability and methodological trends hindering our understanding of ecological sensitivities to drought? (United States)

    Hoover, D. L.; Wilcox, K.; Young, K. E.


    Droughts are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, which may have dramatic and prolonged effects on ecosystem structure and function. There are currently hundreds of published, ongoing, and new drought experiments worldwide aimed to assess ecosystem sensitivities to drought and identify the mechanisms governing ecological resistance and resilience. However, to date, the results from these experiments have varied widely, and thus patterns of drought sensitivities have been difficult to discern. This lack of consensus at the field scale, limits the abilities of experiments to help improve land surface models, which often fail to realistically simulate ecological responses to extreme events. This is unfortunate because models offer an alternative, yet complementary approach to increase the spatial and temporal assessment of ecological sensitivities to drought that are not possible in the field due to logistical and financial constraints. Here we examined 89 published drought experiments, along with their associated historical precipitation records to (1) identify where and how drought experiments have been imposed, (2) determine the extremity of drought treatments in the context of historical climate, and (3) assess the influence of precipitation variability on drought experiments. We found an overall bias in drought experiments towards short-term, extreme experiments in water-limited ecosystems. When placed in the context of local historical precipitation, most experimental droughts were extreme, with 61% below the 5th, and 43% below the 1st percentile. Furthermore, we found that interannual precipitation variability had a large and potentially underappreciated effect on drought experiments due to the co-varying nature of control and drought treatments. Thus detecting ecological effects in experimental droughts is strongly influenced by the interaction between drought treatment magnitude, precipitation variability, and key

  10. The new record of daily precipitation in Lisbon since 1864: diagnosis and impacts of an exceptional precipitation episode (United States)

    Fragoso, M.; Trigo, R. M.; Zêzere, J. L.; Valente, M. A.


    On 18 February 2008 the city of Lisbon had its rainiest day on record, i.e. since the establishment of the D. Luís Observatory in 1853 (continuous observations of meteorological variables are only available since 1864). Fortunately a Portuguese funded project (SIGN) allowed to digitize all the data between 1864 and 1941, allowing a proper comparison with previous extreme events and also to compute more significant return periods. We can now state that a new absolute maximum of daily precipitation at this station occurred last 18 February, when 118.4 mm were registered, surpassing the previous maximum of 110.7 mm (observed on 5 December 1876). Interestingly, these record breaking characteristics were confined to the city of Lisbon, not being observed in rural and suburban neighborhoods, where the anterior maxima recorded in 26 November 1967 or 18 November 1983 were not achieved. In fact, this extreme event was relatively uncharacteristic when compared with typical extreme precipitation events in southern Portugal (Fragoso and Tildes Gomes, 2008). These extreme episodes tend to occur preferably in fall (late September until early December) and covering a wider area. In this work we present an extensive analysis of the large-scale and synoptic atmospheric circulation environment leading to this extreme rainstorm as well as the consequences, namely floods and landslides that produced relevant socio-economic impacts (including 4 casualties). This will be achieved through the characterization of the extreme precipitation episode, describing its temporal structure and the geographic incidence of the event and also assessing statistically the exceptionality of the daily rainfall. The study of the atmospheric context of the episode will be performed with Satellite and radar data, complemented by several large-scale fields obtained from the NCAR/NCEP Reanalyses dataset, including sea level pressure, 500 hPa Geopotential height, precipitation rate, CAPE index. FRAGOSO, M

  11. Acid precipitation literature review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seip, H M; Andersen, B; Andersson, G; Hov, Oe; Kucera, V; Moseholm, L


    There is an increasing number of publications on acid deposition and related phenomena. Interest in these topics has also been reflected in a considerable number of meetings and conferences in this field. The largest of these in 1985 was the ''International Symposium on Acidic Precipitation'' (Muskoka, Ontario). Most work so far has been carried out in North America and Europe. There is, however, an increasing interest in obtaining a better picture of sensitive areas and possible acidification in other parts of the world. Anthropogenic SO/sub 2/ emissions have been estimated to be (in TgSyr/sup -1/): 2.4 (Africa), 4.1 (South America), 0.7 (Ocenia), and 18.3 (Asia). The largest increase during the last decade has been in Asia. Based on Studies of precipitation in remote areas it has been suggested that the natural background concentration for sulphate in many areas should be about 6 1/sup -1/. A new study of sulphate and nitrate in Greenland snow showed that both ions increased by a factor of about 2 from 1895 to 1978. The concentrations of SO/sub 2/ at Norwegian rural sites show a decreasing trend since late 1970s, while concentrations of sulphate in air show no clear trend. More reliable models for transformation, transport and deposition of chemicals are being developed, including three-dimensional grid models to describe episodes of elevated pollution levels lasting for a few days. Model calculations indicate that control of hydrocarbon (HC) emissions is much more efficient in reducing the ozone level in southern Scandinavia in episodes influenced by long-range transported pollutants than NO/sub x/ control of combined NO/sub x/ and HC control. 36 refs. (EG).

  12. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.


    Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

  13. Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis (United States)

    Totz, Sonja; Tziperman, Eli; Coumou, Dim; Pfeiffer, Karl; Cohen, Judah


    The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.

  14. Variability of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation during the Holocene and possible forcing mechanisms (United States)

    Lu, Fuzhi; Ma, Chunmei; Zhu, Cheng; Lu, Huayu; Zhang, Xiaojian; Huang, Kangyou; Guo, Tianhong; Li, Kaifeng; Li, Lan; Li, Bing; Zhang, Wenqing


    Projecting how the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall will change with global warming is essential for human sustainability. Reconstructing Holocene climate can provide critical insight into its forcing and future variability. However, quantitative reconstructions of Holocene summer precipitation are lacking for tropical and subtropical China, which is the core region of the EASM influence. Here we present high-resolution annual and summer rainfall reconstructions covering the whole Holocene based on the pollen record at Xinjie site from the lower Yangtze region. Summer rainfall was less seasonal and 30% higher than modern values at 10-6 cal kyr BP and gradually declined thereafter, which broadly followed the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Over the last two millennia, however, the summer rainfall has deviated from the downward trend of summer insolation. We argue that greenhouse gas forcing might have offset summer insolation forcing and contributed to the late Holocene rainfall anomaly, which is supported by the TraCE-21 ka transient simulation. Besides, tropical sea-surface temperatures could modulate summer rainfall by affecting evaporation of seawater. The rainfall pattern concurs with stalagmite and other proxy records from southern China but differs from mid-Holocene rainfall maximum recorded in arid/semiarid northern China. Summer rainfall in northern China was strongly suppressed by high-northern-latitude ice volume forcing during the early Holocene in spite of high summer insolation. In addition, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation might be responsible for droughts of northern China and floods of southern China during the late Holocene. Furthermore, quantitative rainfall reconstructions indicate that the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations underestimate the magnitude of Holocene precipitation changes. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal variability of the Holocene EASM precipitation and potential forcing

  15. Radar adjusted data versus modelled precipitation: a case study over Cyprus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Casaioli


    Full Text Available In the framework of the European VOLTAIRE project (Fifth Framework Programme, simulations of relatively heavy precipitation events, which occurred over the island of Cyprus, by means of numerical atmospheric models were performed. One of the aims of the project was indeed the comparison of modelled rainfall fields with multi-sensor observations. Thus, for the 5 March 2003 event, the 24-h accumulated precipitation BOlogna Limited Area Model (BOLAM forecast was compared with the available observations reconstructed from ground-based radar data and estimated by rain gauge data. Since radar data may be affected by errors depending on the distance from the radar, these data could be range-adjusted by using other sensors. In this case, the Precipitation Radar aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM satellite was used to adjust the ground-based radar data with a two-parameter scheme. Thus, in this work, two observational fields were employed: the rain gauge gridded analysis and the observational analysis obtained by merging the range-adjusted radar and rain gauge fields. In order to verify the modelled precipitation, both non-parametric skill scores and the contiguous rain area (CRA analysis were applied. Skill score results show some differences when using the two observational fields. CRA results are instead quite in agreement, showing that in general a 0.27° eastward shift optimizes the forecast with respect to the two observational analyses. This result is also supported by a subjective inspection of the shifted forecast field, whose gross features agree with the analysis pattern more than the non-shifted forecast one. However, some open questions, especially regarding the effect of other range adjustment techniques, remain open and need to be addressed in future works.

  16. Factors controlling stable isotope composition of European precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rozanski, K.; Sonntag, C.; Muennich, K.O.


    The seasonal and spatial variations of stable isotope ratios in present day European precipitation are simulated with a simple multibox model of the mean west-east horizontal transport of the atmospheric water vapour across the European continent. Isotope fractionation during the formation of precipitation leads to an increasing depletion of heavy isotopes in the residual air moisture as it moves towards the centre of the continent. This isotopic depletion is partly compensated, particularly in summer, by evapotranspiration, which is assumed to transfer soil water into the atmosphere without isotope fractionation. The model estimates are based on horizontal water vapour flux data, varying seasonally between 88 and 130 kg m -1 s -1 for the Atlantic coast region, and on the monthly precipitation, evapotranspiration and surface air temperature data available for various locations in Europe. Both continental and seasonal temperature effects observed in the stable isotope composition of European precipitation are fairly well reproduced by the model. The calculations show that the isotopic composition of local precipitation is primarily controlled by regional scale processes, i.e. by the water vapour transport patterns into the continent, and by the average precipitation-evapotranspiration history of the air masses precipitating at a given place. Local parameters such as the surface and/or cloud base temperature or the amount of precipitation modify the isotope ratios only slightly. Implications of the model predictions for the interpretation of stable isotope ratios in earlier periods as they are preserved in ice cores and in groundwater are also discussed. (Auth.)

  17. Microsphere formation in droplets using antisolvent vapour precipitation technique


    Chew, Sean Jun Liang


    In previous studies, the antisolvent vapour precipitation method has been proven to produce uniformly sized lactose microspheres (1.0 µm) from a single droplet (1.2 mm diameter) at atmospheric pressure. These types of particles have potential applications in the pharmaceutical industry, especially due to their high dissolution rate. This project looked into the possibility of using antisolvent vapour precipitation to produce microspheres from finely atomised droplets. Microspheres in the sub-...

  18. Two-stage precipitation of plutonium trifluoride

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luerkens, D.W.


    Plutonium trifluoride was precipitated using a two-stage precipitation system. A series of precipitation experiments identified the significant process variables affecting precipitate characteristics. A mathematical precipitation model was developed which was based on the formation of plutonium fluoride complexes. The precipitation model relates all process variables, in a single equation, to a single parameter that can be used to control particle characteristics

  19. Pattern transition between periodic Liesegang pattern and crystal growth regime in reaction-diffusion systems (United States)

    Lagzi, István; Ueyama, Daishin


    The pattern transition between periodic precipitation pattern formation (Liesegang phenomenon) and pure crystal growth regimes is investigated in silver nitrate and potassium dichromate system in mixed agarose-gelatin gel. Morphologically different patterns were found depending on the quality of the gel, and transition between these typical patterns can be controlled by the concentration of gelatin in mixed gel. Effect of temperature and hydrodynamic force on precipitation pattern structure was also investigated.

  20. Effective Assimilation of Global Precipitation (United States)

    Lien, G.; Kalnay, E.; Miyoshi, T.; Huffman, G. J.


    Assimilating precipitation observations by modifying the moisture and sometimes temperature profiles has been shown successful in forcing the model precipitation to be close to the observed precipitation, but only while the assimilation is taking place. After the forecast start, the model tends to "forget" the assimilation changes and lose their extra skill after few forecast hours. This suggests that this approach is not an efficient way to modify the potential vorticity field, since this is the variable that the model would remember. In this study, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method is used to effectively change the potential vorticity field by allowing ensemble members with better precipitation to receive higher weights. In addition to using an EnKF, two other changes in the precipitation assimilation process are proposed to solve the problems related to the highly non-Gaussian nature of the precipitation variable: a) transform precipitation into a Gaussian distribution based on its climatological distribution, and b) only assimilate precipitation at the location where some ensemble members have positive precipitation. The idea is first tested by the observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using SPEEDY, a simplified but realistic general circulation model. When the global precipitation is assimilated in addition to conventional rawinsonde observations, both the analyses and the medium range forecasts are significantly improved as compared to only having rawinsonde observations. The improvement is much reduced when only modifying the moisture field with the same approach, which shows the importance of the error covariance between precipitation and all other model variables. The effect of precipitation assimilation is larger in the Southern Hemisphere than that in the Northern Hemisphere because the Northern Hemisphere analyses are already accurate as a result of denser rawinsonde stations. Assimilation of precipitation using a more comprehensive

  1. Electrical operation of electrostatic precipitators

    CERN Document Server

    Parker, Ken


    The electrostatic precipitator remains on of the most cost effective means of controlling the emission of particulates from most industrial processes. This book will be of interest to both users and suppliers of electrostatic precipitators as well as advanced students on environmental based courses. The author identifies the physical and engineering basis for the development of electrical equipment for electrostatic precipitators and thoroughly explores the technological factors which optimize the efficiency of the precipitator and hence minimize emissions, as well as future developments in th

  2. Patterns of Peeragogy


    Corneli, Joseph; Danoff, Charles Jeffrey; Pierce, Charlotte; Ricaurte, Paola; MacDonald, Lisa Snow


    We describe nine design patterns that we have developed in our work on the Peeragogy project, in which we aim to help design the future of learning, inside and outside of institutions, drawing on the principles of free/libre/open source software and open culture. We use these patterns to build an “emergent roadmap” for the project. Our use of design patterns has some novel features that will be relevant to others working in projects with emergent structure.

  3. Future weather types and their influence on mean and extreme climate indices for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulf Riediger


    occurrence of warm south-westerlies and a decrease in cold easterlies. Thereby, an increase of extensive areal rainfall events is simulated for specific weather types. Otherwise, warmer and drier summers are projected by the RCM ensemble. Here, a few weather patterns are relevant for very hot conditions with the total number of very hot days where the mean daily temperature greater than 25 °C increases. Thereby, anticyclonic weather patterns are most relevant for non precipitation events and particulary, the number of days with anticyclonic westerlies is expected to double in the future.

  4. Improving precipitation measurement (United States)

    Strangeways, Ian


    Although rainfall has been measured for centuries scientifically and in isolated brief episodes over millennia for agriculture, it is still not measured adequately even today for climatology, water resources, and other precise applications. This paper outlines the history of raingauges, their errors, and describes the field testing over 3 years of a first guess design for an aerodynamic rain collector proposed by Folland in 1988. Although shown to have aerodynamic advantage over a standard 5 gauge, the new rain collector was found to suffer from outsplash in heavy rain. To study this problem, and to derive general basic design rules for aerodynamic gauges, its performance was investigated in turbulent, real-world conditions rather than in the controlled and simplified environment of a wind tunnel or mathematical model as in the past. To do this, video records were made using thread tracers to indicate the path of the wind, giving new insight into the complex flow of natural wind around and within raingauges. A new design resulted, and 2 years of field testing have shown that the new gauge has good aerodynamic and evaporative characteristics and minimal outsplash, offering the potential for improved precipitation measurement.

  5. CEOS precipitation constellation (United States)

    Neeck, Steven P.; Oki, Riko


    The outcomes of the 19th Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS) Plenary held in London in November 2005, recognized that the CEOS Implementation Plan for Space-Based Observations for Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) should: - identify the supply of space-based observations required to satisfy the requirements expressed by the 10-year implementation plan for GEOSS; and - propose an innovative process whereby the many disparate types of Earth observing programs funded by CEOS Member agencies might contribute to the supply of the required observations. The CEOS Task Force charged with drafting the CEOS Implementation Plan for Space-Based Observations for GEOSS focused its early efforts on the creation of a 'new planning process' which would satisfy the various criteria demanded by member space agencies, and which would hopefully encourage a new phase of specificity and focus in the multi-lateral co-operation efforts undertaken by space agencies under the CEOS umbrella - resulting in improved engagement of all CEOS Members and real implementation results. The CEOS Constellations is the title given to this new process, and four pilot studies have been initiated in order to pioneer and test the concept. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) were selected as the lead agencies for the study of the development of a CEOS Precipitation Constellation with the support of other CEOS space agency and user community participants. The goals, approach, and anticipated outcomes for the study will be discussed.

  6. Precipitation in the Solar System (United States)

    McIntosh, Gordon


    As an astronomy instructor, I am always looking for commonly observed Earthly experiences to help my students and me understand and appreciate similar occurrences elsewhere in the solar system. Recently I wrote a short TPT article on frost. This paper is on the related phenomena of precipitation. Precipitation, so common on most of the Earth's…

  7. Pareto-optimal estimates that constrain mean California precipitation change (United States)

    Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J. D.


    Global climate model (GCM) projections of greenhouse gas-induced precipitation change can exhibit notable uncertainty at the regional scale, particularly in regions where the mean change is small compared to internal variability. This is especially true for California, which is located in a transition zone between robust precipitation increases to the north and decreases to the south, and where GCMs from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) archive show no consensus on mean change (in either magnitude or sign) across the central and southern parts of the state. With the goal of constraining this uncertainty, we apply a multiobjective approach to a large set of subensembles (subsets of models from the full CMIP5 ensemble). These constraints are based on subensemble performance in three fields important to California precipitation: tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, upper-level zonal winds in the midlatitude Pacific, and precipitation over the state. An evolutionary algorithm is used to sort through and identify the set of Pareto-optimal subensembles across these three measures in the historical climatology, and we use this information to constrain end-of-century California wet season precipitation change. This technique narrows the range of projections throughout the state and increases confidence in estimates of positive mean change. Furthermore, these methods complement and generalize emergent constraint approaches that aim to restrict uncertainty in end-of-century projections, and they have applications to even broader aspects of uncertainty quantification, including parameter sensitivity and model calibration.

  8. Project Paleonao: How know the pattern of the rains. Spanish and Portuguese researchers reconstruct the climatic evolution of the North; Proyecto paleonao: como conocer el patron de las lluvias

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayala, A.


    NAO, the effect of the North Atlantic oscillation, is the difference of air pressure between Iceland and the Azores, and that which governs climate variation every twelve months. To study and understand this phenomenon, which determines the arrival or not of the rains and influence on marine and terrestrial ecosystems are It launched the Paleonao Project. Based on historical weather records, its researchers use sensors natural lakes to collect data. is the case of the Penalara glacial lagoon, whose sediments they allow to know the evolution of the climate since thousands of years and to observe long-term trends of what will eventually passing in terms of precipitation and temperature changes. (Author)

  9. Evaluation of high intensity precipitation from 16 Regional climate models over a meso-scale catchment in the Midlands Regions of England (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; He, Y.; Cloke, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Freer, J.; Wilson, M.; McGregor, G.


    Local flooding events are often triggered by high-intensity rain-fall events, and it is important that these can be correctly modelled by Regional Climate Models (RCMs) if the results are to be used in climate impact assessment. In this study, daily precipitation from 16 RCMs was compared with observations over a meso-scale catchment in the Midlands Region of England. The RCM data was provided from the European research project ENSEMBLES and the precipitation data from the UK MetOffice. The RCMs were all driven by reanalysis data from the ERA40 dataset over the time period 1961-2000. The ENSEMBLES data is on the spatial scale of 25 x 25 km and it was disaggregated onto a 5 x 5 km grid over the catchment and compared with interpolated observational data with the same resolution. The mean precipitation was generally underestimated by the ENSEMBLES data, and the maximum and persistence of high intensity rainfall was even more underestimated. The inter-annual variability was not fully captured by the RCMs, and there was a systematic underestimation of precipitation during the autumn months. The spatial pattern in the modelled precipitation data was too smooth in comparison with the observed data, especially in the high altitudes in the western part of the catchment where the high precipitation usually occurs. The RCM outputs cannot reproduce the current high intensity precipitation events that are needed to sufficiently model extreme flood events. The results point out the discrepancy between climate model output and the high intensity precipitation input needs for hydrological impact modelling.

  10. Composition of atmospheric precipitation in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emanuelsson, A; Eriksson, E; Egner, H


    Preliminary charts are presented based on two years of data, to demonstrate the geographic distribution over Sweden of the annual amounts of Na, Cl, K, Ca, NH/sub 3//sup -n/, and NO/sub 3//sup -n/ brought to the surface of the earth by precipitation. The ratios of these total amounts to the total amounts of Na deposited during the same time interval are shown to possess systematic geographic distribution patterns. Comparisons are made between these ratios and the corresponding quantities in sea water. The investigation is now being resumed to provide additional data from a larger number of stations and for longer time periods.

  11. Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula and its association with Atmospheric Rivers (United States)

    Ramos, Alexandre M.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Ricardo M.


    , Minho, Tagus and Duero) is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins (Ebro, Guadiana and Guadalquivir) the impact of ARs is reduced. In addition, meteorological large scale influence associated with ARs was also analyzed. The anomalies between the extended winter (ONDJFM) long term mean and the composite for the persistent ARs time steps were computed for the IVT and SLP fields. Negative SLP anomalies are found centered in Ireland with slight positive anomalies of SLP located over northern Africa. It was found that the ARs hitting the IP are strongly correlated with the EA pattern, while the influence of other patterns such as the NAO or SCAND is weak. Main results presented are currently in print (Ramos et al., 2015) Ramos et al (2014), A ranking of high-resolution daily precipitation extreme events for the Iberian Peninsula. Atmospheric Science Letters, doi: 10.1002/asl2.507. Ramos et al. (2015), Daily precipitation extreme events in the Iberian Peninsula and its association with Atmospheric Rivers. Journal Hydrometeorology, in press. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010). A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

  12. Kinetics of cadmium hydroxide precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patterson, J.W.; Marani, D.; Luo, B.; Swenson, P.


    This paper presents some preliminary results on the kinetics of Cd(OH)/sub 2/ precipitation, both in the absence and the presence of citric acid as an inhibiting agent. Batch and continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) precipitation studies are performed by mixing equal volumes of NaOH and Cd(NO/sub 3/)/sub 2/ solutions, in order to avoid localized supersaturation conditions. The rate of metal removal from the soluble phase is calculated from the mass balance for the CSTR precipitation tests. In addition, precipitation kinetics are studied in terms of nucleation and crystal growth rates, by means of a particle counter that allows a population balance analysis for the precipitation reactor at steady state conditions

  13. Isotopes in Greenland Precipitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Anne-Katrine

    Greenland ice cores offer a unique opportunity to investigate the climate system behaviour. The objective of this PhD project is to investigate isotope modelling of present- day conditions and conduct model-data comparison using Greenland ice cores. Thus this thesis investigates how the integration...... of model and data can be used to improve the understanding of climate changes. This is done through analysis of isotope modelling, observations and ice core measurements. This dissertation comprises three projects: (1) Modelling the isotopic response to changes in Arctic sea surface conditions, (2......) Constructing a new Greenland database of observations and present-day ice core measurements, and (3) Performance test of isotope-enabled CAM5 for Greenland. The recent decades of rapid Arctic sea ice decline are used as a basis for an observational-based model experiment using the isotope-enabled CAM model 3...

  14. Validation of Satellite Precipitation Products Using Local Rain Gauges to Support Water Assessment in Cochabamba, Bolivia (United States)

    Saavedra, O.


    The metropolitan region of Cochabamba has been struggling for a consistent water supply master plan for years. The limited precipitation intensities and growing water demand have led to severe water conflicts since 2000 when the fight for water had international visibility. A new dam has just placed into operation, located at the mountain range north of the city, which is the hope to fulfill partially water demand in the region. Looking for feasible water sources and projects are essential to fulfill demand. However, the limited monitoring network composed by conventional rain gauges are not enough to come up with the proper aerial precipitation patterns. This study explores the capabilities of GSMaP-GPM satellite products combined with local rain gauge network to obtain an enhanced product with spatial and temporal resolution. A simple methodology based on penalty factors is proposed to adjust GSMaP-GPM intensities on grid-by-grid basis. The distance of an evaluated grid to the surrounding rain gauges was taken into account. The final correcting factors were obtained by iteration, at this particular case of study four iterations were enough to reduce the relative error. A distributed hydrological model was forced with the enhanced precipitation product to simulate the inflow to the new operating dam. Once the model parameters were calibrated and validated, forecast simulations were run. For the short term, the precipitation trend was projected using exponential equation. As for the long term projection, precipitation and temperature from the hadGEM2 and MIROC global circulation model outputs were used where the last one was found in closer agreement of predictions in the past. Overall, we found out that the amount of 1000 l/s for water supply to the region should be possible to fulfill till 2030. Beyond this year, the intake of two neighboring basins should be constructed to increase the stored volume. This is study was found particularly useful to forecast river

  15. The South-to-North Water Diversion Project: effect of the water diversion pattern on transmission of Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum in China. (United States)

    Liang, You-Sheng; Wang, Wei; Li, Hong-Jun; Shen, Xue-Hui; Xu, Yong-Liang; Dai, Jian-Rong


    The South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) is the largest national water conservancy project in China. However, the Eastern Route Project (ERP) of SNWDP will refer to the habitats of Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum. The present study was aimed at investigating the effects of some factors relating to the water diversion pattern on the spread north of O. hupensis and transmission of S. japonicum. Marked snails were attached to the floating debris, and then placed on the water surface, the passage of snails through water pumps was observed. Some marked living adult snails were placed under water in the 5 spots, 15, 30, 60, 90 and 120 days later, their survival and transfer under water were investigated. 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 and 128 juvenile snails, with a male: female ratio of about 1, were caged, 1 year later, their reproductions were calculated. The snails attached on the floating debris at 100-, 50- and 20-cm-distance from the inlet pipe of the big pump (with a diameter of 80 cm), could be absorbed into the pumps, with passing rates of 2.45%, 3.93% and 43.46%, respectively, compared with 72.07% and 91.00% for the snails at 20 cm and 10 cm-distance from the inlet pipe of the small pump (with a diameter of 20 cm). A total of 36,600 marked living snails were put into 5 ponds and ditches, with the water depths of 1-1.6 m, 15-120 days later, no marked ones were found along the ponds and ditches or in the straw packages. The juvenile snails did not reproduce until their density reached up to 8 snails (ratio of male: female of 1)/0.16 m2. During the construction of ERP of SNWDP, the risk of northward spread of schistosomiasis japonica will be decreased or eliminated as long as long-term reliable interventions for snail control are implemented.

  16. Precipitation and Evaporation Trends in Texas (United States)

    Dixon, R. W.


    Texas is a large land area with at least three different climate types. As such it is expected that the results of climate change will not be homogenous. This paper presents results of a study of long trends in Texas precipitation and evaporation using data from the US Historical Climatology Network and the Texas Water Development Board. It shows that the long term trends of these variables is not homogenous and exhibits great variability in both spatial extent and magnitude. This variability must be considered in planning for future water supply or other mitigation projects.

  17. Spatio-temporal pattern of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province, East China: Potential effect of the Yangtze River - Huaihe River Water Transfer Project. (United States)

    Cao, Zhi-Guo; Li, Si; Zhao, Ya-E; Wang, Tian-Ping; Bergquist, Robert; Huang, Yin-Yin; Gao, Feng-Hua; Hu, Yi; Zhang, Zhi-Jie


    Anhui Province has been one of typical epidemic areas of schistosomiasis in East China as a wide range of large lake and marshland regions provide an ideal environment for growth and reproduction of the intermediate snail host. With the completion of the Yangtze River-Huaihe River Water Transfer Project (YHWTP), launched by the end of 2016, the epidemic areas are expected to expand and controlling schistosomiasis remains a challenge. Based on annual surveillance data at the county level in Anhui for the period 2006-2015, spatial and temporal cluster analyses were conducted to assess the pattern of risk through spatial (Local Moran's I and flexible scan statistic) and space-time scan statistic (Kulldorff). It was found that schistosomiasis sero-prevalence was dramatically reduced and maintained at a low level. Cluster results showed that spatial extent of schistosomiasis contracted, but snail distribution remained geographically stable across the study area. Clusters, both for schistosomiasis and snail presence, were common along the Yangtze River. Considering the effect of the ongoing YHWTP on the potential spread of schistosomiasis, Zongyang County and Anqing, which will be transected by the new water-transfer route, should be given a priority for strengthened surveillance and control. Attention should also be paid to Guichi since it is close to one of the planned inlets of the YHWTP. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Investigation of Varied Strontium-Transuranic Precipitation Chemistries for Crossflow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nash, C.A.


    Precipitation chemistries for strontium and transuranic (TRU) removal have been tested for crossflow filterability and lanthanide removal with simulants of Hanford tank 241-AN-107 supernate. This is the initial work indicating the usefulness of a strontium and permanganate precipitation process as applied to the Hanford River Protection Project. Precipitations with both ferric and ferrous iron were shown to be at least two orders of magnitude less filterable than a 0.1 gpm/ft target average flux that was desired at the time. A precipitate from a strontium nitrate strike alone was found to filter easily and to make the desired average flux. Other chemistries tested included precipitant of lanthanum(III), nickel (II), calcium (II), and a redox chemistry using sodium permanganate. Of these chemistries a strontium and permanganate strike including calcium provided the highest filter flux compared to the other chemistries. It showed the most promise in lanthanide removal as well. This work provides a promising direction for further work to achieve both acceptable filterability and decontamination for Envelope C wastes to be treated by the Hanford River Protection Project. The work reported here was originally intended to satisfy needs for crossflow filter testing of a strontium and ferric precipitation method for treating Envelope C using a 241-AN-107 simulant

  19. Investigation of Varied Strontium-Transuranic Precipitation Chemistries for Crossflow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nash, C.A.


    Precipitation chemistries for strontium and transuranic (TRU) removal have been tested for crossflow filterability and lanthanide removal with simulants of Hanford tank 241-AN-107 supernate. This is the initial work indicating the usefulness of a strontium and permanganate precipitation process as applied to the Hanford River Protection Project. Precipitations with both ferric and ferrous iron were shown to be at least two orders of magnitude less filterable than a 0.1 gpm/ft target average flux that was desired at the time. A precipitate from a strontium nitrate strike alone was found to filter easily and to make the desired average flux. Other chemistries tested included precipitant of lanthanum(III), nickel (II), calcium (II), and a redox chemistry using sodium permanganate. Of these chemistries a strontium and permanganate strike including calcium provided the highest filter flux compared to the other chemistries. It showed the most promise in lanthanide removal as well. This work provides a promising direction for further work to achieve both acceptable filterability and decontamination for Envelope C wastes to be treated by the Hanford River Protection Project. The work reported here was originally intended to satisfy needs for crossflow filter testing of a strontium and ferric precipitation method for treating Envelope C using a 241-AN-107 simulant.

  20. Extreme Precipitation and Runoff under Changing Climate in Southern Maine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan, Eugene [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Jared, Alissa [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Mahat, Vinod [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Picel, Mark [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Verner, Duane [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wall, Thomas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Moges, Edom M. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States); Demissie, Yonas K. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States); Pierce, Julia [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)


    The quantification of extreme precipitation events is vitally important for designing and engineering water and flood sensitive infrastructure. Since this kind of infrastructure is usually built to last much longer than 10, 50, or even 100 years, there is great need for statistically sound estimates of the intensity of 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year rainstorms and associated floods. The recent assessment indicated that the intensity of the most extreme precipitation events (or the heaviest 1% of all daily events) have increased in every region of the contiguous states since the 1950s (Melillo et al. 2014). The maximum change in precipitation intensity of extreme events occurred in the northeast region reaching 71%. The precipitation extremes can be characterized using intensity-duration-frequency analysis (IDF). However, the current IDFs in this region were developed around the assumption that climate condition remains stationary over the next 50 or 100 years. To better characterize the potential flood risk, this project will (1) develop precipitation IDFs on the basis of both historical observations and future climate projections from dynamic downscaling with Argonne National Laboratory’s (Argonne’s) regional climate model and (2) develop runoff IDFs using precipitation IDFs for the Casco Bay Watershed. IDF development also considers non-stationary distribution models and snowmelt effects that are not incorporated in the current IDFs.

  1. Evaluation of satellite-retrieved extreme precipitation using gauge observations (United States)

    Lockhoff, M.; Zolina, O.; Simmer, C.; Schulz, J.


    Precipitation extremes have already been intensively studied employing rain gauge datasets. Their main advantage is that they represent a direct measurement with a relatively high temporal coverage. Their main limitation however is their poor spatial coverage and thus a low representativeness in many parts of the world. In contrast, satellites can provide global coverage and there are meanwhile data sets available that are on one hand long enough to be used for extreme value analysis and that have on the other hand the necessary spatial and temporal resolution to capture extremes. However, satellite observations provide only an indirect mean to determine precipitation and there are many potential observational and methodological weaknesses in particular over land surfaces that may constitute doubts concerning their usability for the analysis of precipitation extremes. By comparing basic climatological metrics of precipitation (totals, intensities, number of wet days) as well as respective characteristics of PDFs, absolute and relative extremes of satellite and observational data this paper aims at assessing to which extent satellite products are suitable for analysing extreme precipitation events. In a first step the assessment focuses on Europe taking into consideration various satellite products available, e.g. data sets provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). First results indicate that satellite-based estimates do not only represent the monthly averaged precipitation very similar to rain gauge estimates but they also capture the day-to-day occurrence fairly well. Larger differences can be found though when looking at the corresponding intensities.

  2. Characterization and structure of precipitates in 6xxx Aluminium Alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmestad, Randi; Bjørge, Ruben; Ehlers, Flemming J H; Torsæter, Malin; Marioara, Calin D; Andersen, Sigmund J


    Solute atom nanoscale precipitates are responsible for the favourable mechanical properties of heat treatable aluminium alloys such as Al-Mg-Si (6xxx). The shape, structure and strengthening properties of age-hardening precipitates depend on alloy composition and thermo-mechanical history. We seek an improved understanding of the physics related to nucleation and precipitation on the atomistic level in these alloys. Once these mechanisms are sufficiently well described and understood, the hope is that 'alloy design' simulations can assist tailoring of materials with desired properties. In pure Al-Mg-Si we have determined the structure of nearly all the known metastable precipitate phases, by combining advanced TEM techniques (such as high resolution TEM and nano-beam diffraction) with atom probe tomography and density functional theory. We are now studying effects of additions /substitutions of Cu, Ag and/or Ge that promote formation of more disordered precipitates, employing aberration corrected high angle annular dark field scanning TEM. We find that all metastable precipitates contain variations of a widely spaced 'Si/Ge network'. In spite of disorder or defects, this network is surprisingly well ordered, with hexagonal projected sub-cell dimensions a = b ≅ 0.4 nm and c (along the fully coherent precipitate main growth direction) equal to 0.405 nm or a multiple of it.

  3. Connecting Satellite-Based Precipitation Estimates to Users (United States)

    Huffman, George J.; Bolvin, David T.; Nelkin, Eric


    Beginning in 1997, the Merged Precipitation Group at NASA Goddard has distributed gridded global precipitation products built by combining satellite and surface gauge data. This started with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), then the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), and recently the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG). This 20+-year (and on-going) activity has yielded an important set of insights and lessons learned for making state-of-the-art precipitation data accessible to the diverse communities of users. Merged-data products critically depend on the input sensors and the retrieval algorithms providing accurate, reliable estimates, but it is also important to provide ancillary information that helps users determine suitability for their application. We typically provide fields of estimated random error, and recently reintroduced the quality index concept at user request. Also at user request we have added a (diagnostic) field of estimated precipitation phase. Over time, increasingly more ancillary fields have been introduced for intermediate products that give expert users insight into the detailed performance of the combination algorithm, such as individual merged microwave and microwave-calibrated infrared estimates, the contributing microwave sensor types, and the relative influence of the infrared estimate.

  4. Pattern classification

    CERN Document Server

    Duda, Richard O; Stork, David G


    The first edition, published in 1973, has become a classic reference in the field. Now with the second edition, readers will find information on key new topics such as neural networks and statistical pattern recognition, the theory of machine learning, and the theory of invariances. Also included are worked examples, comparisons between different methods, extensive graphics, expanded exercises and computer project topics. An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available from the Wiley editorial department.

  5. On the Precipitation and Precipitation Change in Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerd Wendler


    Full Text Available Alaska observes very large differences in precipitation throughout the state; southeast Alaska experiences consistently wet conditions, while northern Arctic Alaska observes very dry conditions. The maximum mean annual precipitation of 5727 mm is observed in the southeastern panhandle at Little Port Arthur, while the minimum of 92 mm occurs on the North Slope at Kuparuk. Besides explaining these large differences due to geographic and orographic location, we discuss the changes in precipitation with time. Analyzing the 18 first-order National Weather Service stations, we found that the total average precipitation in the state increased by 17% over the last 67 years. The observed changes in precipitation are furthermore discussed as a function of the observed temperature increase of 2.1 °C, the mean temperature change of the 18 stations over the same period. This observed warming of Alaska is about three times the magnitude of the mean global warming and allows the air to hold more water vapor. Furthermore, we discuss the effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, which has a strong influence on both the temperature and precipitation in Alaska.

  6. future changes in seasonal-mean precipitation over west africa

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    a Approximate radiative forcing levels were defined as ±5% of the stated level in Wm-2 relative to the pre-industrial levels. Radiative ... MESSAGE is Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact. GCAM is Global Change ... the general pattern of the observed precipitation described ...

  7. Detection of trends in precipitation extremes in Zhejiang, east China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tian, Ye; Xu, YuePing; Booij, Martijn J.; Lin, Shengji; Zhang, Qingqing; Lou, Zhanghua


    Extreme weather exerts a huge impact on human beings and it is of vital importance to study the regular pattern of meteorological and hydrological factors. In this paper, a selection of seven extreme indices is used to analyze the trend of precipitation extremes of 18 meteorological stations located

  8. Extreme Precipitation in Poland in the Years 1951-2010 (United States)

    Malinowska, Miroslawa


    The characteristics of extreme precipitation, including the dominant trends, were analysed for eight stations located in different parts of Poland for the period 1951-2010. Five indices enabling the assessment of the intensity and frequency of both extremely dry and wet conditions were applied. The indices included the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10), maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5d), simple daily intensity index (SDII), and the fraction of annual total precipitation due to events exceeding the 95th percentile calculated for the period 1961-1990. Annual trends were calculated using standard linear regression method, while the fit of the model was assessed with the F-test at the 95% confidence level. The analysed changes in extreme precipitation showed mixed patterns. A significant positive trend in the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10) was observed in central Poland, while a significant negative one, in south-eastern Poland. Based on the analysis of maximum 5-day precipitation totals (R5d), statistically significant positive trends in north-western, western and eastern parts of the country were detected, while the negative trends were found in the central and northeastern parts. Daily precipitation, expressed as single daily intensity index (SDII), increased over time in northern and central Poland. In southern Poland, the variation of SDII index showed non-significant negative tendencies. Finally, the fraction of annual total precipitation due to the events exceeding the 1961-1990 95th percentile increased at one station only, namely, in Warsaw. The indicator which refers to dry conditions, i.e. maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) displayed negative trends throughout the surveyed area, with the exception of Szczecin that is a representative of north-western Poland.

  9. Dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to greenhouse gases and aerosols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Tang


    Full Text Available Atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases affect cloud properties, radiative balance and, thus, the hydrological cycle. Observations show that precipitation has decreased in the Mediterranean since the beginning of the 20th century, and many studies have investigated possible mechanisms. So far, however, the effects of aerosol forcing on Mediterranean precipitation remain largely unknown. Here we compare the modeled dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to individual forcing agents in a set of global climate models (GCMs. Our analyses show that both greenhouse gases and aerosols can cause drying in the Mediterranean and that precipitation is more sensitive to black carbon (BC forcing than to well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs or sulfate aerosol. In addition to local heating, BC appears to reduce precipitation by causing an enhanced positive sea level pressure (SLP pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation, characterized by higher SLP at midlatitudes and lower SLP at high latitudes. WMGHGs cause a similar SLP change, and both are associated with a northward diversion of the jet stream and storm tracks, reducing precipitation in the Mediterranean while increasing precipitation in northern Europe. Though the applied forcings were much larger, if forcings are scaled to those of the historical period of 1901–2010, roughly one-third (31±17 % of the precipitation decrease would be attributable to global BC forcing with the remainder largely attributable to WMGHGs, whereas global scattering sulfate aerosols would have negligible impacts. Aerosol–cloud interactions appear to have minimal impacts on Mediterranean precipitation in these models, at least in part because many simulations did not fully include such processes; these merit further study. The findings from this study suggest that future BC and WMGHG emissions may significantly affect regional water resources, agricultural practices, ecosystems and

  10. Verification of high resolution simulation of precipitation and wind in Portugal (United States)

    Menezes, Isilda; Pereira, Mário; Moreira, Demerval; Carvalheiro, Luís; Bugalho, Lourdes; Corte-Real, João


    Demand of energy and freshwater continues to grow as the global population and demands increase. Precipitation feed the freshwater ecosystems which provides a wealth of goods and services for society and river flow to sustain native species and natural ecosystem functions. The adoption of the wind and hydro-electric power supplies will sustain energy demands/services without restricting the economic growth and accelerated policies scenarios. However, the international meteorological observation network is not sufficiently dense to directly support high resolution climatic research. In this sense, coupled global and regional atmospheric models constitute the most appropriate physical and numerical tool for weather forecasting and downscaling in high resolution grids with the capacity to solve problems resulting from the lack of observed data and measuring errors. Thus, this study aims to calibrate and validate of the WRF regional model from precipitation and wind fields simulation, in high spatial resolution grid cover in Portugal. The simulations were performed in two-way nesting with three grids of increasing resolution (60 km, 20 km and 5 km) and the model performance assessed for the summer and winter months (January and July), using input variables from two different reanalyses and forecasted databases (ERA-Interim and NCEP-FNL) and different forcing schemes. The verification procedure included: (i) the use of several statistics error estimators, correlation based measures and relative errors descriptors; and, (ii) an observed dataset composed by time series of hourly precipitation, wind speed and direction provided by the Portuguese meteorological institute for a comprehensive set of weather stations. Main results suggested the good ability of the WRF to: (i) reproduce the spatial patterns of the mean and total observed fields; (ii) with relatively small values of bias and other errors; and, (iii) and good temporal correlation. These findings are in good

  11. Precipitation of lithium in germanium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masaik, M.; Furgolle, B.


    The precipitation of Lithium in Germanium was studied. Taking account of the interactions Ga LI, LiO, we calculated the oxygen content in germanium samples from the resistivity measurements. (authors)

  12. Environmental Radioactivity, Temperature, and Precipitation. (United States)

    Riland, Carson A.


    Reports that environmental radioactivity levels vary with temperature and precipitation and these effects are due to radon. Discusses the measurement of this environmental radioactivity and the theory behind it. (JRH)

  13. Aluminum precipitation from Hanford DSSF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgen, D.; Frazier, P.; Staton, G.


    A series of pilot scale tests using simulated Double Shell Slurry Feed (DSSF) showed that well-settled aluminum precipitate can be produced in Hanford double shell tank (DST) high level waste by slow neutralization with carbon dioxide. This pretreatment could provide an early grout feed and free tank space, as well as facilitate downstream processes such as ion exchange by providing a less caustic feed. A total of eight test runs were completed using a 10-ft tall 3-in i.d. glass column. The 10-ft height corresponds to about one third of the vertical height of a DST, hence providing a reasonable basis for extrapolating the observed precipitate settling and compaction to the actual waste tank environment. Four runs (three with a simplified simulant and one with a chemically complete simulant) produced well settled precipitates averaging 1.5 to 2 feet high. Aluminum gel rather than settled precipitate resulted from one test where neutralization was too rapid

  14. Hourly and Daily Precipitation Data (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Precipitation reports submitted on many form types, including tabular and autographic charts. Reports are almost exclusively from the US Cooperative Observer Network.

  15. Evaluation of Coupled Precipitator Two

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stone, M.E.


    The offline testing of the Coupled Precipitator Two (CP-2) has been completed. The tests were conducted and are documented. The tests were conducted at an offline test rack near the Drain Tube Test Stand facility in 672-T

  16. Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010 (United States)

    Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.


    In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

  17. BOOK REVIEW: ADRENALINE JUNKIES AND TEMPLATE ZOMBIES Understanding Patterns of Project Behavior by Tom Demarco, Peter Hruschka, Tim Lister, Steve McMenamin, James Robertson, Suzanne Robertson

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Today, armed forces are in continuous transformation. As new technologies are developed and new principles of war are introduced, the ministries of defenses and armed forces have to adapt to this changing environment. Almost every day, military officials start new projects to handle the technological and cultural transformations in the military. Project management became an integral part of defense development and management. Today, all high or middle level military officials are either a project sponsor overseeing a project, or a project manager executing a project, or a member of project team helping the project to become a reality. As a result, project management skills became an essential part of skillset that a military official need to successfully execute his/her duties.

  18. Exploring temporal and spatial variability of precipitation of Weizhou Island, South China Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shulin Deng


    New hydrological insights: (1 Rainfall amounts had a non-homogeneous temporal distribution during periods of 1961–1990, 1981–2010 and 1961–2010 on Weizhou Island. (2 Large scale atmospheric circulation may be the major atmospheric driving force of precipitation changes. (3 Precipitation has a cyclical nature on Weizhou Island. (4 Precipitation pattern on Weizhou Island is also affected by oceanic climate. The results provide a scientific basis for water resource management on Weizhou Island.

  19. Intercomparison of spaceborne precipitation radars and its applications in examining precipitation-topography relationships in the Tibetan Plateau (United States)

    Tang, G.; Gao, J.; Long, D.


    TRMM PR data. The Level-3 precipitation products, i.e., GPM IMERG and GSMaP, can reproduce the general pattern on how precipitation varies with elevation but misrepresent some important details.

  20. Effect of urbanization on the winter precipitation distribution in Beijing area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    According to the urbanization extent of Beijing area, and with 1980 as a turning point, the duration from 1961 to 2000 is divided into two periods: one is defined as the slow urbanization period from 1961 to 1980, and other one as the fast urbanization period from 1981 to 2000. Based on the 40-year’s precipi-tation data of 14 standard weather stations in Beijing area, the effect of urbanization on precipitation distribution is studied. It is found that there has been a noticeable and systematic change of winter precipitation distribution pattern between these two periods in Beijing area: in the slow urbanization period, the precipitation in the southern part of Beijing is more than that in the northern part; but in the fast urbanization period, the precipitation distribution pattern is reverse, i.e. the precipitation in the southern part is less than that in the northern part; But in other seasons, the precipitation distribution pattern did not change remarkably in general. The possible cause resulting in the change of winter precipitation distribution pattern, might be that with urban area extension, the effects of "urban heat island" and "urban dry island" become more and more intensified, and increase hydrometeors evapo-ration below precipitable cloud, and then cause less precipitation received on the ground surface in the downtown and the southern part. It is also noteworthy to further research why the precipitation distri-bution pattern does not change systematically in other seasons except winter after intense urbaniza-tion in Beijing area.

  1. Trust growth model of engineering project partnership pattern%工程项目伙伴关系模式的信任增长模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)



    将信任分为初步交易型、深度交易型和义利共生型,运用博弈论分析不同信任的产生机制,并建立工程项目伙伴关系模式的信任增长模型.研究结果表明:企业之间共同的追求目标、价值观和文化理念是信任产生和不断增长的源泉.随着信任程度的加深,业主、监理单位和承包商各自获得的总体效益呈渐进上升趋势,参与工程建设的各方才能够形成战略型的永久伙伴关系.%The trust was divided into preliminary transaction, depth transaction and the righteousness favorable par agenesis. The generation mechanism of different trusts with the game theory was analyzed, and the trust growth model of engineering project partnership pattern was suggested. It is suggested that the common goal, values and cultural idea of different enterprises are the source of the trust origin and growth. With trust degree increasing, the total benefit that the owner, the construction supervision unit and the contractor obtain goes up gradually and the strategy permanent partnership between the participations of the engineering construction can be formed.

  2. Enhanced interannual precipitation variability increases plant functional diversity that in turn ameliorates negative impact on productivity. (United States)

    Gherardi, Laureano A; Sala, Osvaldo E


    Although precipitation interannual variability is projected to increase due to climate change, effects of changes in precipitation variance have received considerable less attention than effects of changes in the mean state of climate. Interannual precipitation variability effects on functional diversity and its consequences for ecosystem functioning are assessed here using a 6-year rainfall manipulation experiment. Five precipitation treatments were switched annually resulting in increased levels of precipitation variability while maintaining average precipitation constant. Functional diversity showed a positive response to increased variability due to increased evenness. Dominant grasses decreased and rare plant functional types increased in abundance because grasses showed a hump-shaped response to precipitation with a maximum around modal precipitation, whereas rare species peaked at high precipitation values. Increased functional diversity ameliorated negative effects of precipitation variability on primary production. Rare species buffered the effect of precipitation variability on the variability in total productivity because their variance decreases with increasing precipitation variance. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  3. Development of precipitator of fluid film type

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Yupu


    The precipitator of fluid film type is developed for the determination of fuel element cladding failure of water-cooled reactor. It integrates the scrubber, precipitator and detector. The jet of element cooling water automatically circulates carrier gas and the flow water film transfers precipitates onto the surface of centre electrode. Three different types are designed. On the special test loop, the uranium sample pellets of simulating cladding failure is measured. The sensitivity of precipitators, saturated precipitation voltage, incremental speed of signal, speed of driving out precipitates and the contents of the precipitates are determined. The test shows that the precipitators are highly sensitive, reliable, cheap and easy to operate

  4. Projected hydrological changes in the North Carolina piedmont using bias-corrected North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuri Kim


    New hydrological insights for the region: Evapotranspiration (ET and water yield (WY with projected CO2, precipitation, and temperature during 2044–2070 were affected by each climate factor separately and synergistically. Increasing CO2 to 600 ppm only scenario resulted in an ET decrease (5–17% which led to WY increase (17–36%. With projected temperature increases (1–5 °C only scenarios, ET was projected to increase noticeably (12–112% especially in winter and spring. The amount of projected ET increase was reduced by a CO2 increase to 600 ppm due to decreased stomatal conductance. Projected WY varied due to the high variability of future precipitation patterns (−54% to 33% but generally increased when solely precipitation projections were applied. However, WY with combined effects of CO2, precipitation, and temperature did not show significant changes compared with the historical WY. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate interactions of precipitation, temperature, and CO2 to simulate future water availability in the North Carolina Piedmont.

  5. How well do the GCMs/RCMs capture the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in the Southwestern United States? (United States)

    Jiang, Peng; Gautam, Mahesh R.; Zhu, Jianting; Yu, Zhongbo


    SummaryMulti-scale temporal variability of precipitation has an established relationship with floods and droughts. In this paper, we present the diagnostics on the ability of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Bias Corrected and Downscaled (BCSD) World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) projections and 10 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that participated in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to represent multi-scale temporal variability determined from the observed station data. Four regions (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Tucson, and Cimarron) in the Southwest United States are selected as they represent four different precipitation regions classified by clustering method. We investigate how storm properties and seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal precipitation variabilities differed between GCMs/RCMs and observed records in these regions. We find that current GCMs/RCMs tend to simulate longer storm duration and lower storm intensity compared to those from observed records. Most GCMs/RCMs fail to produce the high-intensity summer storms caused by local convective heat transport associated with the summer monsoon. Both inter-annual and decadal bands are present in the GCM/RCM-simulated precipitation time series; however, these do not line up to the patterns of large-scale ocean oscillations such as El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results show that the studied GCMs/RCMs can capture long-term monthly mean as the examined data is bias-corrected and downscaled, but fail to simulate the multi-scale precipitation variability including flood generating extreme events, which suggests their inadequacy for studies on floods and droughts that are strongly associated with multi-scale temporal precipitation variability.

  6. Winter precipitation over the Iberian peninsula and its relationship to circulation indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Rodríguez-Puebla


    Full Text Available Winter precipitation variability over the Iberian peninsula was investigated by obtaining the spatial and temporal patterns. Empirical Orthogonal Functions were used to describe the variance distribution and to compress the precipitation data into a few modes. The corresponding spatial patterns divide the peninsula into climatic regions according to precipitation variations. The associated time series were related to large scale circulation indices and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies by using lag cross-correlation and cross-spectrum. The major findings are: the most influential indices for winter precipitation were the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern; coherent oscillations were detected at about eight years between precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation and some dynamic consequences of the circulation on precipitation over the Iberian peninsula were examined during drought and wet spells. In the end statistical methods have been proposed to downscale seasonal precipitation prediction. Keywords: Winter precipitation, circulation indices, Iberian peninsula climate, climate variations, precipitation trend

  7. Functional Connectivity of Precipitation Networks in the Brazilian Rainforest-Savanna Transition Zone (United States)

    Adera, S.; Larsen, L.; Levy, M. C.; Thompson, S. E.


    In the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone, vegetation change has the potential to significantly affect precipitation patterns. Deforestation, in particular, can affect precipitation patterns by increasing land surface albedo, increasing aerosol loading to the atmosphere, changing land surface roughness, and reducing transpiration. Understanding land surface-precipitation couplings in this region is important not only for sustaining Amazon and Cerrado ecosystems, but also for cattle ranching and agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water management. Simulations suggest complex, scale-dependent interactions between precipitation and land cover. For example, the size and distribution of deforested patches has been found to affect precipitation patterns. We take an empirical approach to ask: (1) what are the dominant spatial and temporal length scales of precipitation coupling in the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone? (2) How do these length scales change over time? (3) How does the connectivity of precipitation change over time? The answers to these questions will help address fundamental questions about the impacts of deforestation on precipitation. We use rain gauge data from 1100 rain gauges intermittently covering the period 1980 - 2013, a period of intensive land cover change in the region. The dominant spatial and temporal length scales of precipitation coupling are resolved using transfer entropy, a metric from information theory. Connectivity of the emergent network of couplings is quantified using network statistics. Analyses using transfer entropy and network statistics reveal the spatial and temporal interdependencies of rainfall events occurring in different parts of the study domain.

  8. Synoptic Drivers of Precipitation in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic (United States)

    Cohen, L.; Hudson, S.; Graham, R.; Renwick, J. A.


    Precipitation in the Arctic has been shown to be increasing in recent decades, from both observational and modelling studies, with largest trends seen in autumn and winter. This trend is attributed to a combination of the warming atmosphere and reduced sea ice extent. The seasonality of precipitation in the Arctic is important as it largely determines whether the precipitation falls as snow or rain. This study assesses the spatial and temporal variability of the synoptic drivers of precipitation in the Atlantic (European) sector of the Arctic. This region of the Arctic is of particular interest as it has the largest inter-annual variability in sea ice extent and is the primary pathway for moisture transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes. This study uses the ECMWF ERA-I reanalysis total precipitation to compare to long-term precipitation observations from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard to show that the reanalysis captures the synoptic variability of precipitation well and that most precipitation in this region is synoptically driven. The annual variability of precipitation in the Atlantic Arctic shows strong regionality. In the Svalbard and Barents Sea region, most of the annual total precipitation occurs during autumn and winter (Oct-Mar) (>60% of annual total), while the high-Arctic (> 80N) and Kara Sea receives most of the annual precipitation ( 60% of annual total) during summer (July-Sept). Using a synoptic classification developed for this region, this study shows that winter precipitation is driven by winter cyclone occurrence, with strong correlations to the AO and NAO indices. High precipitation over Svalbard is also strongly correlated with the Scandinavian blocking pattern, which produces a southerly flow in the Greenland Sea/Svalbard area. An increasing occurrence of these synoptic patterns are seen for winter months (Nov and Jan), which may explain much of the observed winter increase in precipitation.

  9. Precipitation reconstruction for the Czech Lands, AD 1501-2010

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dobrovolný, Petr; Brázdil, Rudolf; Trnka, Miroslav; Kotyza, O.; Valášek, H.


    Roč. 35, č. 1 (2015), s. 1-14 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-04291S; GA ČR GA13-19831S Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : documentary evidence * instrumental data * precipitation * reconstruction * Czech Lands Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.609, year: 2015


    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sokol, Zbyněk


    Roč. 50, č. 1 (2006), s. 105-120 ISSN 0039-3169 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IBS3042101 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : precipitation forecast * regression * statistical postprocessing * MOS Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.603, year: 2006

  11. future changes in seasonal-mean precipitation over west africa

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    agriculture is the main source of economic livelihood in ... surface wind direction distinguishes the rainy season from the dry ... The model has a horizontal grid ... MESSAGE is Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact ... Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis [18-19].

  12. The effect of acid precipitation on tree growth in eastern North America (United States)

    Charles V. Cogbill


    Detailed study of the history of forest tree growth by tree-ring analysis is used to assess the effect of acid precipitation. The pattern and historical trends of acid precipitation deposition are compared with growth trends from mature forest stands in New Hampshire and Tennessee. No clear indication of a regional, synchronized decrease in tree growth was found. The...

  13. Detecting the effect of urban land use on extreme precipitation in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahimpour Golroudbary, Vahid; Zeng, Y.; Mannaerts, C.M.; Su, Z.


    A notable increase in heavy precipitation has been observed over the Netherlands in recent decades. The aim of this study was to assess the influences of urban land use on these extreme precipitation patterns. Significant differences between an earlier multi-decadal period and a recent period were

  14. Systematic front distortion and presence of consecutive fronts in a precipitation system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Volford, A.; Izsak, F.; Ripszam, M.; Lagzi, I.


    A new simple reaction-diffusion system is presented focusing on pattern formation phenomena as consecutive precipitation fronts and distortion of the precipitation front.The chemical system investigated here is based on the amphoteric property of aluminum hydroxide and exhibits two unique phenomena.

  15. Satellite-Based Precipitation Datasets (United States)

    Munchak, S. J.; Huffman, G. J.


    Of the possible sources of precipitation data, those based on satellites provide the greatest spatial coverage. There is a wide selection of datasets, algorithms, and versions from which to choose, which can be confusing to non-specialists wishing to use the data. The International Precipitation Working Group (IPWG) maintains tables of the major publicly available, long-term, quasi-global precipitation data sets ( ipwg/data/datasets.html), and this talk briefly reviews the various categories. As examples, NASA provides two sets of quasi-global precipitation data sets: the older Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and current Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG). Both provide near-real-time and post-real-time products that are uniformly gridded in space and time. The TMPA products are 3-hourly 0.25°x0.25° on the latitude band 50°N-S for about 16 years, while the IMERG products are half-hourly 0.1°x0.1° on 60°N-S for over 3 years (with plans to go to 16+ years in Spring 2018). In addition to the precipitation estimates, each data set provides fields of other variables, such as the satellite sensor providing estimates and estimated random error. The discussion concludes with advice about determining suitability for use, the necessity of being clear about product names and versions, and the need for continued support for satellite- and surface-based observation.

  16. A two-component generalized extreme value distribution for precipitation frequency analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rulfová, Zuzana; Buishand, A.; Roth, M.; Kyselý, Jan


    Roč. 534, March (2016), s. 659-668 ISSN 0022-1694 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * two-component extreme value distribution * regional frequency analysis * convective precipitation * stratiform precipitation * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.483, year: 2016

  17. Fine-scale precipitation and mechanical properties of thin slab processed titanium-niobium bearing high strength steels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jia, Z. [Center for Structural and Functional Materials, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, P.O. Box 44130, Lafayette, LA 70503 (United States); Misra, R.D.K., E-mail: [Center for Structural and Functional Materials, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, P.O. Box 44130, Lafayette, LA 70503 (United States); O' Malley, R. [Nucor Steel Decatur, LLC, 4301 Iverson Blvd., Trinity, AL 35673 (United States); Jansto, S.J. [CBMM-Reference Metals Company, 1000 Old Pond Road, Bridgeville, PA 15017 (United States)


    Highlights: {yields} Precipitation and mechanical behavior of Ti-Nb and Ti-Nb-Mo-V steels were elucidated. {yields} Distribution of precipitates was analyzed with microscopy and diffraction pattern. {yields} During austenite-ferrite transformation, interface precipitation of NbC was observed. {yields} Epitaxial precipitation of NbC on TiC surface results in mixed precipitates Ti(Nb)C. - Abstract: We describe here the precipitation behavior and mechanical properties of 560 MPa Ti-Nb and 770 MPa Ti-Nb-Mo-V steels. The precipitation characteristics were analyzed in terms of chemistry and size distribution of precipitates, with particular focus on the crystallography of precipitates through an analysis of electron diffraction patterns. In addition to pure carbides (NbC, TiC, Mo{sub 2}C, and VC), Nb containing titanium-rich carbides were also observed. These precipitates were of a size range of 4-20 nm. The mechanism of formation of these Ti-rich niobium containing carbides is postulated to involve epitaxial nucleation of NbC on previously precipitated TiC. Interface precipitation of NbC was an interesting observation in compact strip processing which is characterized by an orientation relationship of [0 0 1]{sub NbC}//[0 0 1]{sub {alpha}-Fe}, implying that the precipitation of NbC occurred during austenite-ferrite transformation.

  18. Fine-scale precipitation and mechanical properties of thin slab processed titanium-niobium bearing high strength steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jia, Z.; Misra, R.D.K.; O'Malley, R.; Jansto, S.J.


    Highlights: → Precipitation and mechanical behavior of Ti-Nb and Ti-Nb-Mo-V steels were elucidated. → Distribution of precipitates was analyzed with microscopy and diffraction pattern. → During austenite-ferrite transformation, interface precipitation of NbC was observed. → Epitaxial precipitation of NbC on TiC surface results in mixed precipitates Ti(Nb)C. - Abstract: We describe here the precipitation behavior and mechanical properties of 560 MPa Ti-Nb and 770 MPa Ti-Nb-Mo-V steels. The precipitation characteristics were analyzed in terms of chemistry and size distribution of precipitates, with particular focus on the crystallography of precipitates through an analysis of electron diffraction patterns. In addition to pure carbides (NbC, TiC, Mo 2 C, and VC), Nb containing titanium-rich carbides were also observed. These precipitates were of a size range of 4-20 nm. The mechanism of formation of these Ti-rich niobium containing carbides is postulated to involve epitaxial nucleation of NbC on previously precipitated TiC. Interface precipitation of NbC was an interesting observation in compact strip processing which is characterized by an orientation relationship of [0 0 1] NbC //[0 0 1] α-Fe , implying that the precipitation of NbC occurred during austenite-ferrite transformation.

  19. Projection of future climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Olivier; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Vial, Jessica; Brun, Eric; Cattiaux, Julien; Chauvin, Fabrice; Salas y Melia