Study on Top-Down Estimation Method of Software Project Planning

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHANG Jun-guang; L(U) Ting-jie; ZHAO Yu-mei

2006-01-01

This paper studies a new software project planning method under some actual project data in order to make software project plans more effective. From the perspective of system theory, our new method regards a software project plan as an associative unit for study. During a top-down estimation of a software project, Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) method and analogy method are combined to estimate its size, then effort estimation and specific schedules are obtained according to distributions of the phase effort. This allows a set of practical and feasible planning methods to be constructed. Actual data indicate that this set of methods can lead to effective software project planning.

Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of nonlinear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...

Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arndt, Channing; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

2002-01-01

We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of non-linear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints...

How Agile Methods Conquers General Project Management - The Project Half Double Initiative

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tordrup Heeager, Lise; Svejvig, Per; Schlichter, Bjarne Rerup

2016-01-01

Increased complexity in projects has forced new project management initiatives. In software development several agile methods have emerged and methods such as Scrum are today highly implemented in practice. General project management practice has been inspired by agile software development...

Predicting Software Projects Cost Estimation Based on Mining Historical Data

OpenAIRE

Najadat, Hassan; Alsmadi, Izzat; Shboul, Yazan

2012-01-01

In this research, a hybrid cost estimation model is proposed to produce a realistic prediction model that takes into consideration software project, product, process, and environmental elements. A cost estimation dataset is built from a large number of open source projects. Those projects are divided into three domains: communication, finance, and game projects. Several data mining techniques are used to classify software projects in terms of their development complexity. Data mining techniqu...

The financial burden of emergency general surgery: National estimates 2010 to 2060.

Science.gov (United States)

Ogola, Gerald O; Gale, Stephen C; Haider, Adil; Shafi, Shahid

2015-09-01

Adoption of the acute care surgery model has led to increasing volumes of emergency general surgery (EGS) patients at trauma centers. However, the financial burden of EGS services on trauma centers is unknown. This study estimates the current and future costs associated with EGS hospitalization nationwide. We applied the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma's DRG International Classification of Diseases-9th Rev. criteria for defining EGS to the 2010 National Inpatient Sample (NIS) data and identified adult EGS patients. Cost of hospitalization was obtained by converting reported charges to cost using the 2010 all-payer inpatient cost-to-charge ratio for all hospitals in the NIS database. Cost was modeled via a log-gamma model in a generalized linear mixed model to account for potential correlation in cost within states and hospitals in the NIS database. Patients' characteristics and hospital factors were included in the model as fixed effects, while state and hospital were included as random effects. The national incidence of EGS was calculated from NIS data, and the US Census Bureau population projections were used to estimate incidence for 2010 to 2060. Nationwide costs were obtained by multiplying projected incidences by estimated costs and reported in year 2010 US dollar value. Nationwide, there were 2,640,725 adult EGS hospitalizations in 2010. The national average adjusted cost per EGS hospitalization was $10,744 (95% confidence interval [CI], $10,615-$10,874); applying these cost data to the national EGS hospitalizations gave a total estimated cost of $28.37 billion (95% CI, $28.03-$28.72 billion). Older age groups accounted for greater proportions of the cost ($8.03 billion for age ≥ 75 years, compared with $1.08 billion for age 18-24 years). As the US population continues to both grow and age, EGS costs are projected to increase by 45% to $41.20 billion (95% CI, $40.70-$41.7 billion) by 2060. EGS constitutes a significant portion of US health

A Project Management Approach to Using Simulation for Cost Estimation on Large, Complex Software Development Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Mizell, Carolyn; Malone, Linda

2007-01-01

It is very difficult for project managers to develop accurate cost and schedule estimates for large, complex software development projects. None of the approaches or tools available today can estimate the true cost of software with any high degree of accuracy early in a project. This paper provides an approach that utilizes a software development process simulation model that considers and conveys the level of uncertainty that exists when developing an initial estimate. A NASA project will be analyzed using simulation and data from the Software Engineering Laboratory to show the benefits of such an approach.

Kinetic parameter estimation from attenuated SPECT projection measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reutter, B.W.; Gullberg, G.T.

1998-01-01

Conventional analysis of dynamically acquired nuclear medicine data involves fitting kinetic models to time-activity curves generated from regions of interest defined on a temporal sequence of reconstructed images. However, images reconstructed from the inconsistent projections of a time-varying distribution of radiopharmaceutical acquired by a rotating SPECT system can contain artifacts that lead to biases in the estimated kinetic parameters. To overcome this problem the authors investigated the estimation of kinetic parameters directly from projection data by modeling the data acquisition process. To accomplish this it was necessary to parametrize the spatial and temporal distribution of the radiopharmaceutical within the SPECT field of view. In a simulated transverse slice, kinetic parameters were estimated for simple one compartment models for three myocardial regions of interest, as well as for the liver. Myocardial uptake and washout parameters estimated by conventional analysis of noiseless simulated data had biases ranging between 1--63%. Parameters estimated directly from the noiseless projection data were unbiased as expected, since the model used for fitting was faithful to the simulation. Predicted uncertainties (standard deviations) of the parameters obtained for 500,000 detected events ranged between 2--31% for the myocardial uptake parameters and 2--23% for the myocardial washout parameters

Kinetic parameter estimation from SPECT cone-beam projection measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huesman, Ronald H.; Reutter, Bryan W.; Zeng, G. Larry; Gullberg, Grant T.

1998-01-01

Kinetic parameters are commonly estimated from dynamically acquired nuclear medicine data by first reconstructing a dynamic sequence of images and subsequently fitting the parameters to time-activity curves generated from regions of interest overlaid upon the image sequence. Biased estimates can result from images reconstructed using inconsistent projections of a time-varying distribution of radiopharmaceutical acquired by a rotating SPECT system. If the SPECT data are acquired using cone-beam collimators wherein the gantry rotates so that the focal point of the collimators always remains in a plane, additional biases can arise from images reconstructed using insufficient, as well as truncated, projection samples. To overcome these problems we have investigated the estimation of kinetic parameters directly from SPECT cone-beam projection data by modelling the data acquisition process. To accomplish this it was necessary to parametrize the spatial and temporal distribution of the radiopharmaceutical within the SPECT field of view. In a simulated chest image volume, kinetic parameters were estimated for simple one-compartment models for four myocardial regions of interest. Myocardial uptake and washout parameters estimated by conventional analysis of noiseless simulated cone-beam data had biases ranging between 3-26% and 0-28%, respectively. Parameters estimated directly from the noiseless projection data were unbiased as expected, since the model used for fitting was faithful to the simulation. Statistical uncertainties of parameter estimates for 10 000 000 events ranged between 0.2-9% for the uptake parameters and between 0.3-6% for the washout parameters. (author)

The generalized back projection theorem for cone beam reconstruction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peyrin, F.C.

1985-01-01

The use of cone beam scanners raises the problem of three dimensional reconstruction from divergent projections. After a survey on bidimensional analytical reconstruction methods we examine their application to the 3D problem. Finally, it is shown that the back projection theorem can be generalized to cone beam projections. This allows to state a new inversion formula suitable for both the 4 π parallel and divergent geometries. It leads to the generalization of the ''rho-filtered back projection'' algorithm which is outlined

A Generalized Autocovariance Least-Squares Method for Covariance Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Åkesson, Bernt Magnus; Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

2007-01-01

A generalization of the autocovariance least- squares method for estimating noise covariances is presented. The method can estimate mutually correlated system and sensor noise and can be used with both the predicting and the filtering form of the Kalman filter.......A generalization of the autocovariance least- squares method for estimating noise covariances is presented. The method can estimate mutually correlated system and sensor noise and can be used with both the predicting and the filtering form of the Kalman filter....

Methodology for cost estimate in projects for nuclear power plants decommissioning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salij, L.M.

2008-01-01

The conceptual approaches to cost estimating of nuclear power plants units decommissioning projects were determined. The international experience and national legislative and regulatory basis were analyzed. The possible decommissioning project cost classification was given. It was shown the role of project costs of nuclear power plant units decommissioning as the most important criterion for the main project decisions. The technical and economic estimation of deductions to common-branch fund of decommissioning projects financing was substantiated

Generalized shrunken type-GM estimator and its application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, C Z; Du, Y L

2014-01-01

The parameter estimation problem in linear model is considered when multicollinearity and outliers exist simultaneously. A class of new robust biased estimator, Generalized Shrunken Type-GM Estimation, with their calculated methods are established by combination of GM estimator and biased estimator include Ridge estimate, Principal components estimate and Liu estimate and so on. A numerical example shows that the most attractive advantage of these new estimators is that they can not only overcome the multicollinearity of coefficient matrix and outliers but also have the ability to control the influence of leverage points

Generalized shrunken type-GM estimator and its application

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, C. Z.; Du, Y. L.

2014-03-01

The parameter estimation problem in linear model is considered when multicollinearity and outliers exist simultaneously. A class of new robust biased estimator, Generalized Shrunken Type-GM Estimation, with their calculated methods are established by combination of GM estimator and biased estimator include Ridge estimate, Principal components estimate and Liu estimate and so on. A numerical example shows that the most attractive advantage of these new estimators is that they can not only overcome the multicollinearity of coefficient matrix and outliers but also have the ability to control the influence of leverage points.

Estimating design costs for first-of-a-kind projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banerjee, Bakul; Fermilab

2006-01-01

Modern scientific facilities are often outcomes of projects that are first-of-a-kind, that is, minimal historical data are available for project costs and schedules. However, at Fermilab, there was an opportunity to execute two similar projects consecutively. In this paper, a comparative study of the design costs for these two projects is presented using earned value methodology. This study provides some insights into how to estimate the cost of a replicated project

IMPROVING PROJECT SCHEDULE ESTIMATES USING HISTORICAL DATA AND SIMULATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P.H. Meyer

2012-01-01

Full Text Available

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Many projects are not completed on time or within the original budget. This is caused by uncertainty in project variables as well as the occurrence of risk events. A study was done to determine ways of measuring the risk in development projects executed by a mining company in South Africa. The main objective of the study was to determine whether historical project data would provide a more accurate means of estimating the total project duration. Original estimates and actual completion times for tasks of a number of projects were analysed and compared. The results of the study indicated that a more accurate total duration for a project could be obtained by making use of historical project data. The accuracy of estimates could be improved further by building a comprehensive project schedule database within a specific industry.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Verskeie projekte word nie binne die oorspronklike skedule of begroting voltooi nie. Dit word dikwels veroorsaak deur onsekerheid oor projekveranderlikes en die voorkoms van risiko’s. 'n Studie is gedoen om 'n metode te ontwikkel om risiko te meet vir ontwikkelingsprojekte van 'n mynmaatskappy in Suid Afrika. Die hoofdoel van die studie was om te bepaal of historiese projekdata gebruik kon word om 'n akkurater tydsduur vir 'n projek te beraam. Die geraamde tydsduur van take vir 'n aantal projekte is ontleed en vergelyk met die werklike tydsduur. Die resultate van die studie het getoon dat 'n akkurater totale tydsduur vir die projek verkry kon word deur gebruik te maak van historiese projekdata. Die akkuraatheid kan verder verbeter word deur 'n databasis van projekskedules vir 'n bepaalde industrie te ontwikkel en by datum te hou.

ESTIMATION CRITERIA OF INVESTMENT INNOVATIVE PROJECTS IN HEALTHCARE SPHERE

OpenAIRE

Vadim A. Lomazov; Elena V. Nesterova

2013-01-01

The problem of evaluating investment projects in the health sector, implemented on a public-private partnership, is considered. As part of the procedure for constructing estimates is suggested to reveal medical, social, economic, scientific and innovative components of the project as a separate component of the project to be used as the analytic hierarchy subcriteria.

Thresholding projection estimators in functional linear models

OpenAIRE

Cardot, Hervé; Johannes, Jan

2010-01-01

We consider the problem of estimating the regression function in functional linear regression models by proposing a new type of projection estimators which combine dimension reduction and thresholding. The introduction of a threshold rule allows to get consistency under broad assumptions as well as minimax rates of convergence under additional regularity hypotheses. We also consider the particular case of Sobolev spaces generated by the trigonometric basis which permits to get easily mean squ...

An estimation method of the direct benefit of a waterlogging control project applicable to the changing environment

Science.gov (United States)

Zengmei, L.; Guanghua, Q.; Zishen, C.

2015-05-01

The direct benefit of a waterlogging control project is reflected by the reduction or avoidance of waterlogging loss. Before and after the construction of a waterlogging control project, the disaster-inducing environment in the waterlogging-prone zone is generally different. In addition, the category, quantity and spatial distribution of the disaster-bearing bodies are also changed more or less. Therefore, under the changing environment, the direct benefit of a waterlogging control project should be the reduction of waterlogging losses compared to conditions with no control project. Moreover, the waterlogging losses with or without the project should be the mathematical expectations of the waterlogging losses when rainstorms of all frequencies meet various water levels in the drainage-accepting zone. So an estimation model of the direct benefit of waterlogging control is proposed. Firstly, on the basis of a Copula function, the joint distribution of the rainstorms and the water levels are established, so as to obtain their joint probability density function. Secondly, according to the two-dimensional joint probability density distribution, the dimensional domain of integration is determined, which is then divided into small domains so as to calculate the probability for each of the small domains and the difference between the average waterlogging loss with and without a waterlogging control project, called the regional benefit of waterlogging control project, under the condition that rainstorms in the waterlogging-prone zone meet the water level in the drainage-accepting zone. Finally, it calculates the weighted mean of the project benefit of all small domains, with probability as the weight, and gets the benefit of the waterlogging control project. Taking the estimation of benefit of a waterlogging control project in Yangshan County, Guangdong Province, as an example, the paper briefly explains the procedures in waterlogging control project benefit estimation. The

ESTIMATION CRITERIA OF INVESTMENT INNOVATIVE PROJECTS IN HEALTHCARE SPHERE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vadim A. Lomazov

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The problem of evaluating investment projects in the health sector, implemented on a public-private partnership, is considered. As part of the procedure for constructing estimates is suggested to reveal medical, social, economic, scientific and innovative components of the project as a separate component of the project to be used as the analytic hierarchy subcriteria.

Discriminating Projections for Estimating Face Age in Wild Images

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tokola, Ryan A [ORNL; Bolme, David S [ORNL; Ricanek, Karl [ORNL; Barstow, Del R [ORNL; Boehnen, Chris Bensing [ORNL

2014-01-01

We introduce a novel approach to estimating the age of a human from a single uncontrolled image. Current face age estimation algorithms work well in highly controlled images, and some are robust to changes in illumination, but it is usually assumed that images are close to frontal. This bias is clearly seen in the datasets that are commonly used to evaluate age estimation, which either entirely or mostly consist of frontal images. Using pose-specific projections, our algorithm maps image features into a pose-insensitive latent space that is discriminative with respect to age. Age estimation is then performed using a multi-class SVM. We show that our approach outperforms other published results on the Images of Groups dataset, which is the only age-related dataset with a non-trivial number of off-axis face images, and that we are competitive with recent age estimation algorithms on the mostly-frontal FG-NET dataset. We also experimentally demonstrate that our feature projections introduce insensitivity to pose.

Project cost estimation techniques used by most emerging building ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Keywords: Cost estimation, estimation methods, emerging contractors, tender. Dr Solly Matshonisa .... historical cost data (data from cost accounting records and/ ..... emerging contractors in tendering. Table 13: Use of project risk management versus responsibility: expected. Internal document analysis. Checklist analysis.

Software project estimation the fundamentals for providing high quality information to decision makers

CERN Document Server

Abran, Alain

2015-01-01

Software projects are often late and over-budget and this leads to major problems for software customers. Clearly, there is a serious issue in estimating a realistic, software project budget. Furthermore, generic estimation models cannot be trusted to provide credible estimates for projects as complex as software projects. This book presents a number of examples using data collected over the years from various organizations building software. It also presents an overview of the non-for-profit organization, which collects data on software projects, the International Software Benchmarking Stan

Adaptive generalized function projective lag synchronization of different chaotic systems with fully uncertain parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Xiangjun; Lu Hongtao

2011-01-01

Highlights: → Adaptive generalized function projective lag synchronization (AGFPLS) is proposed. → Two uncertain chaos systems are lag synchronized up to a scaling function matrix. → The synchronization speed is sensitively influenced by the control gains. → The AGFPLS scheme is robust against noise perturbation. - Abstract: In this paper, a novel projective synchronization scheme called adaptive generalized function projective lag synchronization (AGFPLS) is proposed. In the AGFPLS method, the states of two different chaotic systems with fully uncertain parameters are asymptotically lag synchronized up to a desired scaling function matrix. By means of the Lyapunov stability theory, an adaptive controller with corresponding parameter update rule is designed for achieving AGFPLS between two diverse chaotic systems and estimating the unknown parameters. This technique is employed to realize AGFPLS between uncertain Lue chaotic system and uncertain Liu chaotic system, and between Chen hyperchaotic system and Lorenz hyperchaotic system with fully uncertain parameters, respectively. Furthermore, AGFPLS between two different uncertain chaotic systems can still be achieved effectively with the existence of noise perturbation. The corresponding numerical simulations are performed to demonstrate the validity and robustness of the presented synchronization method.

Early cost estimating for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ibrahim Mahamid

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to develop early cost estimating models for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques, based on 131 sets of data collected in the West Bank in Palestine. As the cost estimates are required at early stages of a project, considerations were given to the fact that the input data for the required regression model could be easily extracted from sketches or scope definition of the project. 11 regression models are developed to estimate the total cost of road construction project in US dollar; 5 of them include bid quantities as input variables and 6 include road length and road width. The coefficient of determination r2 for the developed models is ranging from 0.92 to 0.98 which indicate that the predicted values from a forecast models fit with the real-life data. The values of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of the developed regression models are ranging from 13% to 31%, the results compare favorably with past researches which have shown that the estimate accuracy in the early stages of a project is between ±25% and ±50%.

Cost Estimation for Cross-organizational ERP Projects: Research Perspectives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Daneva, Maia; Bieman, J.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

There are many methods for estimating size, effort, schedule and other cost aspects of IS projects, but only one specifically developed for Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) [67] and none for simultaneous, interdependent ERP projects in a cross-organizational context. The objective of this paper is

Generalized projective synchronization of two coupled complex networks of different sizes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Ke-Zan; He En; Zeng Zhao-Rong; Chi, K. Tse

2013-01-01

We investigate a new generalized projective synchronization between two complex dynamical networks of different sizes. To the best of our knowledge, most of the current studies on projective synchronization have dealt with coupled networks of the same size. By generalized projective synchronization, we mean that the states of the nodes in each network can realize complete synchronization, and the states of a pair of nodes from both networks can achieve projective synchronization. Using the stability theory of the dynamical system, several sufficient conditions for guaranteeing the existence of the generalized projective synchronization under feedback control and adaptive control are obtained. As an example, we use Chua's circuits to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach

The cluster bootstrap consistency in generalized estimating equations

KAUST Repository

Cheng, Guang

2013-03-01

The cluster bootstrap resamples clusters or subjects instead of individual observations in order to preserve the dependence within each cluster or subject. In this paper, we provide a theoretical justification of using the cluster bootstrap for the inferences of the generalized estimating equations (GEE) for clustered/longitudinal data. Under the general exchangeable bootstrap weights, we show that the cluster bootstrap yields a consistent approximation of the distribution of the regression estimate, and a consistent approximation of the confidence sets. We also show that a computationally more efficient one-step version of the cluster bootstrap provides asymptotically equivalent inference. © 2012.

Using fuzzy logic to improve the project time and cost estimation based on Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farhad Habibi

2018-09-01

Full Text Available Among different factors, correct scheduling is one of the vital elements for project management success. There are several ways to schedule projects including the Critical Path Method (CPM and Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT. Due to problems in estimating dura-tions of activities, these methods cannot accurately and completely model actual projects. The use of fuzzy theory is a basic way to improve scheduling and deal with such problems. Fuzzy theory approximates project scheduling models to reality by taking into account uncertainties in decision parameters and expert experience and mental models. This paper provides a step-by-step approach for accurate estimation of time and cost of projects using the Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT and expert views as fuzzy numbers. The proposed method included several steps. In the first step, the necessary information for project time and cost is estimated using the Critical Path Method (CPM and the Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT. The second step considers the duration and cost of the project activities as the trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, and then, the time and cost of the project are recalculated. The duration and cost of activities are estimated using the questionnaires as well as weighing the expert opinions, averaging and defuzzification based on a step-by-step algorithm. The calculating procedures for evaluating these methods are applied in a real project; and the obtained results are explained.

On the projective curvature tensor of generalized Sasakian-space ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

space-forms under some conditions regarding projective curvature tensor. All the results obtained in this paper are in the form of necessary and sufficient conditions. Keywords: Generalized Sasakian-space-forms; projectively flat; ...

Reliance on and Reliability of the Engineer’s Estimate in Heavy Civil Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George Okere

2017-06-01

Full Text Available To the contractor, the engineer’s estimate is the target number to aim for, and the basis for a contractor to evaluate the accuracy of their estimate. To the owner, the engineer’s estimate is the basis for funding, evaluation of bids, and for predicting project costs. As such the engineer’s estimate is the benchmark. This research sought to investigate the reliance on, and the reliability of the engineer’s estimate in heavy civil cost estimate. The research objective was to characterize the engineer’s estimate and allow owners and contractors re-evaluate or affirm their reliance on the engineer’s estimate. A literature review was conducted to understand the reliance on the engineer’s estimate, and secondary data from Washington State Department of Transportation was used to investigate the reliability of the engineer’s estimate. The findings show the need for practitioners to re-evaluate their reliance on the engineer’s estimate. The empirical data showed that, within various contexts, the engineer’s estimate fell outside the expected accuracy range of the low bids or the cost to complete projects. The study recommends direct tracking of costs by project owners while projects are under construction, the use of a second estimate to improve the accuracy of their estimates, and use of the cost estimating practices found in highly reputable construction companies.

Probabilistic cost estimating of nuclear power plant construction projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finch, W.C.; Perry, L.W.; Postula, F.D.

1978-01-01

This paper shows how to identify and isolate cost accounts by developing probability trees down to component levels as justified by value and cost uncertainty. Examples are given of the procedure for assessing uncertainty in all areas contributing to cost: design, factory equipment pricing, and field labor and materials. The method of combining these individual uncertainties is presented so that the cost risk can be developed for components, systems and the total plant construction project. Formats which enable management to use the probabilistic cost estimate information for business planning and risk control are illustrated. Topics considered include code estimate performance, cost allocation, uncertainty encoding, probabilistic cost distributions, and interpretation. Effective cost control of nuclear power plant construction projects requires insight into areas of greatest cost uncertainty and a knowledge of the factors which can cause costs to vary from the single value estimates. It is concluded that probabilistic cost estimating can provide the necessary assessment of uncertainties both as to the cause and the consequences

Solid Waste Operations Complex W-113: Project cost estimate. Preliminary design report. Volume IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

This document contains Volume IV of the Preliminary Design Report for the Solid Waste Operations Complex W-113 which is the Project Cost Estimate and construction schedule. The estimate was developed based upon Title 1 material take-offs, budgetary equipment quotes and Raytheon historical in-house data. The W-113 project cost estimate and project construction schedule were integrated together to provide a resource loaded project network

Design management of general contractor under nuclear power project EPC mode

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Su Shaojian

2013-01-01

Design management has not yet formed a theoretical system recognized, general contractor design managers under nuclear power project EPC Mode lack the clear theory basis. This paper aims to discuss Design management from the angle of general contractor under nuclear power project EPC mode, Gives the concept of design management Clearly, by Combining the characteristics of nuclear power project, Gives the specific content and meaning of the design management of nuclear power project. (authors)

Approaches in estimation of external cost for fuel cycles in the ExternE project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Afanas'ev, A.A.; Maksimenko, B.N.

1998-01-01

The purposes, content and main results of studies realized within the frameworks of the International Project ExternE which is the first comprehensive attempt to develop general approach to estimation of external cost for different fuel cycles based on utilization of nuclear and fossil fuels, as well as on renewable power sources are discussed. The external cost of a fuel cycle is treated as social and environmental expenditures which are not taken into account by energy producers and consumers, i.e. these are expenditures not included into commercial cost nowadays. The conclusion on applicability of the approach suggested for estimation of population health hazards and environmental impacts connected with electric power generation growth (expressed in money or some other form) is made

Methods for cost estimation in software project management

Science.gov (United States)

Briciu, C. V.; Filip, I.; Indries, I. I.

2016-02-01

The speed in which the processes used in software development field have changed makes it very difficult the task of forecasting the overall costs for a software project. By many researchers, this task has been considered unachievable, but there is a group of scientist for which this task can be solved using the already known mathematical methods (e.g. multiple linear regressions) and the new techniques as genetic programming and neural networks. The paper presents a solution for building a model for the cost estimation models in the software project management using genetic algorithms starting from the PROMISE datasets related COCOMO 81 model. In the first part of the paper, a summary of the major achievements in the research area of finding a model for estimating the overall project costs is presented together with the description of the existing software development process models. In the last part, a basic proposal of a mathematical model of a genetic programming is proposed including here the description of the chosen fitness function and chromosome representation. The perspective of model described it linked with the current reality of the software development considering as basis the software product life cycle and the current challenges and innovations in the software development area. Based on the author's experiences and the analysis of the existing models and product lifecycle it was concluded that estimation models should be adapted with the new technologies and emerging systems and they depend largely by the chosen software development method.

Generalized projective synchronization of chaotic systems via adaptive learning control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yun-Ping, Sun; Jun-Min, Li; Hui-Lin, Wang; Jiang-An, Wang

2010-01-01

In this paper, a learning control approach is applied to the generalized projective synchronisation (GPS) of different chaotic systems with unknown periodically time-varying parameters. Using the Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional stability theory, a differential-difference mixed parametric learning law and an adaptive learning control law are constructed to make the states of two different chaotic systems asymptotically synchronised. The scheme is successfully applied to the generalized projective synchronisation between the Lorenz system and Chen system. Moreover, numerical simulations results are used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme. (general)

SEffEst: Effort estimation in software projects using fuzzy logic and neural networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Israel

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Academia and practitioners confirm that software project effort prediction is crucial for an accurate software project management. However, software development effort estimation is uncertain by nature. Literature has developed methods to improve estimation correctness, using artificial intelligence techniques in many cases. Following this path, this paper presents SEffEst, a framework based on fuzzy logic and neural networks designed to increase effort estimation accuracy on software development projects. Trained using ISBSG data, SEffEst presents remarkable results in terms of prediction accuracy.

78 FR 61227 - Public Assistance Cost Estimating Format for Large Projects

Science.gov (United States)

2013-10-03

... equipment. The base cost (construction costs) plus nonconstruction costs equal the total eligible cost... included the estimated base cost plus the estimated nonconstruction costs. Under the traditional method... total cost of completing the project. This ``forward- pricing'' methodology provides an estimate of the...

Cost estimation using ministerial regulation of public work no. 11/2013 in construction projects

Science.gov (United States)

Arumsari, Putri; Juliastuti; Khalifah Al'farisi, Muhammad

2017-12-01

One of the first tasks in starting a construction project is to estimate the total cost of building a project. In Indonesia there are several standards that are used to calculate the cost estimation of a project. One of the standards used in based on the Ministerial Regulation of Public Work No. 11/2013. However in a construction project, contractor often has their own cost estimation based on their own calculation. This research aimed to compare the construction project total cost using calculation based on the Ministerial Regulation of Public Work No. 11/2013 against the contractor’s calculation. Two projects were used as case study to compare the results. The projects were a 4 storey building located in Pantai Indah Kapuk area (West Jakarta) and a warehouse located in Sentul (West Java) which was built by 2 different contractors. The cost estimation from both contractors’ calculation were compared to the one based on the Ministerial Regulation of Public Work No. 11/2013. It is found that there were differences between the two calculation around 1.80 % - 3.03% in total cost, in which the cost estimation based on Ministerial Regulation was higher than the contractors’ calculations.

Using linear time-invariant system theory to estimate kinetic parameters directly from projection measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zeng, G.L.; Gullberg, G.T.

1995-01-01

It is common practice to estimate kinetic parameters from dynamically acquired tomographic data by first reconstructing a dynamic sequence of three-dimensional reconstructions and then fitting the parameters to time activity curves generated from the time-varying reconstructed images. However, in SPECT, the pharmaceutical distribution can change during the acquisition of a complete tomographic data set, which can bias the estimated kinetic parameters. It is hypothesized that more accurate estimates of the kinetic parameters can be obtained by fitting to the projection measurements instead of the reconstructed time sequence. Estimation from projections requires the knowledge of their relationship between the tissue regions of interest or voxels with particular kinetic parameters and the project measurements, which results in a complicated nonlinear estimation problem with a series of exponential factors with multiplicative coefficients. A technique is presented in this paper where the exponential decay parameters are estimated separately using linear time-invariant system theory. Once the exponential factors are known, the coefficients of the exponentials can be estimated using linear estimation techniques. Computer simulations demonstrate that estimation of the kinetic parameters directly from the projections is more accurate than the estimation from the reconstructed images

A case-based reasoning approach for estimating the costs of pump station projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamed M. Marzouk

2011-10-01

Full Text Available The effective estimation of costs is crucial to the success of construction projects. Cost estimates are used to evaluate, approve and/or fund projects. Organizations use some form of classification system to identify the various types of estimates that may be prepared during the lifecycle of a project. This research presents a parametric-cost model for pump station projects. Fourteen factors have been identified as important to the influence of the cost of pump station projects. A data set that consists of forty-four pump station projects (fifteen water and twenty-nine waste water are collected to build a Case-Based Reasoning (CBR library and to test its performance. The results obtained from the CBR tool are processed and adopted to improve the accuracy of the results. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the development of the effectiveness of the tool.

The demand for refined petroleum products in Iran: Estimation and projection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kianian, A.M.

1990-01-01

The estimation and projection of the demand for refined petroleum products of the OPEC states, are important for the world petroleum market from both the demand and supply sides. In this context, this study forms an econometric model to estimte the demand for the total and four major refined petroleum products (RPPs) in Iran and project their future trends into the year 2000. The fact that Iran has the largest domestic demand for RPPs among all the OPEC members has motivated some research primarily to study the structure of the demand for such products. None, however, has utilized econometric models to estimate or project the demand for RPPs. The first section of this study discusses the structure of the Iranian energy market. Next, the demand functions for gasoline, kerosine, gas oil, fuel oil, and the total RPPs in Iran are estimated. The third section puts together the demand functions to form a model used to project the demand for RPPs up to the year 2000 under an historical scenario. Finally, some condlusions are offered. 7 tabs

Estimating large complex projects Estimando proyectos grandes y complejos

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cliff Schexnayder

2007-08-01

Full Text Available Managing large capital construction projects requires the coordination of a multitude of human, organizational, technical, and natural resources. Quite often, the engineering and construction complexities of such projects are overshadowed by economic, societal, and political challenges. The ramifications and effects, which result from differences between early project cost estimates and the bid price or the final project cost, are significant. Over the time span between the initiation of a project and the completion of construction many factors influence a project's final costs. This time span is normally several years in duration but for highly complex and technologically challenging projects, project duration can easily exceed a decade. Over that period, changes to the project scope often occur. The subject here is a presentation of strategies that support realistic cost estimating. Through literature review and interviews with transportation agencies in the U.S. and internationally the authors developed a database of the factors that are the root causes of cost estimation problemsGestionar proyectos de construcción de grandes capitales requiere de la coordinación de una multitud de recursos humanos, organizacionales, técnicos y naturales. Frecuentemente, las complejidades del diseño y construcción de esos grandes proyectos son tapadas por sus desafíos económicos, políticos y sociales. Las ramificaciones y efectos que resultan de las diferencias entre la estimación de costo inicial, el costo de la propuesta adjudicada y el costo final del proyecto son significativas. Hay numerosos factores que inciden en el costo final del proyecto entre su inicio y finalización. La duración es generalmente de varios años y puede incluso superar la década para aquellos especialmente complejos y desafiantes. En ese período de tiempo, cambios en los alcances del proyecto cambian frecuentemente. El tópico del presente artículo es mostrar

Comparison of additive (absolute) risk projection models and multiplicative (relative) risk projection models in estimating radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

1990-01-01

Lifetime cancer risk estimates depend on risk projection models. While the increasing lengths of follow-up observation periods of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bring about changes in cancer risk estimates, the validity of the two risk projection models, the additive risk projection model (AR) and multiplicative risk projection model (MR), comes into question. This paper compares the lifetime risk or loss of life-expectancy between the two projection models on the basis of BEIR-III report or recently published RERF report. With Japanese cancer statistics the estimates of MR were greater than those of AR, but a reversal of these results was seen when the cancer hazard function for India was used. When we investigated the validity of the two projection models using epidemiological human data and animal data, the results suggested that MR was superior to AR with respect to temporal change, but there was little evidence to support its validity. (author)

Estimation of group means when adjusting for covariates in generalized linear models.

Science.gov (United States)

Qu, Yongming; Luo, Junxiang

2015-01-01

Generalized linear models are commonly used to analyze categorical data such as binary, count, and ordinal outcomes. Adjusting for important prognostic factors or baseline covariates in generalized linear models may improve the estimation efficiency. The model-based mean for a treatment group produced by most software packages estimates the response at the mean covariate, not the mean response for this treatment group for the studied population. Although this is not an issue for linear models, the model-based group mean estimates in generalized linear models could be seriously biased for the true group means. We propose a new method to estimate the group mean consistently with the corresponding variance estimation. Simulation showed the proposed method produces an unbiased estimator for the group means and provided the correct coverage probability. The proposed method was applied to analyze hypoglycemia data from clinical trials in diabetes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk Consideration and Cost Estimation in Construction Projects Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudius A. Peleskei

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Construction projects usually involve high investments. It is, therefore, a risky adventure for companies as actual costs of construction projects nearly always exceed the planed scenario. This is due to the various risks and the large uncertainty existing within this industry. Determination and quantification of risks and their impact on project costs within the construction industry is described to be one of the most difficult areas. This paper analyses how the cost of construction projects can be estimated using Monte Carlo Simulation. It investigates if the different cost elements in a construction project follow a specific probability distribution. The research examines the effect of correlation between different project costs on the result of the Monte Carlo Simulation. The paper finds out that Monte Carlo Simulation can be a helpful tool for risk managers and can be used for cost estimation of construction projects. The research has shown that cost distributions are positively skewed and cost elements seem to have some interdependent relationships.

Effort estimation for enterprise resource planning implementation projects using social choice - a comparative study

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, Stefan; Mitlöhner, Johann

2010-08-01

ERP implementation projects have received enormous attention in the last years, due to their importance for organisations, as well as the costs and risks involved. The estimation of effort and costs associated with new projects therefore is an important topic. Unfortunately, there is still a lack of models that can cope with the special characteristics of these projects. As the main focus lies in adapting and customising a complex system, and even changing the organisation, traditional models like COCOMO can not easily be applied. In this article, we will apply effort estimation based on social choice in this context. Social choice deals with aggregating the preferences of a number of voters into a collective preference, and we will apply this idea by substituting the voters by project attributes. Therefore, instead of supplying numeric values for various project attributes, a new project only needs to be placed into rankings per attribute, necessitating only ordinal values, and the resulting aggregate ranking can be used to derive an estimation. We will describe the estimation process using a data set of 39 projects, and compare the results to other approaches proposed in the literature.

Trends in diabetes incidence from 1992 to 2015 and projections for 2024: A Portuguese General Practitioner's Network study.

Science.gov (United States)

de Sousa-Uva, Mafalda; Antunes, L; Nunes, B; Rodrigues, A P; Simões, J A; Ribeiro, R T; Boavida, J M; Matias-Dias, C

2016-10-01

Diabetes is known as a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Portugal is known as the European country with the highest prevalence of this disease. While diabetes prevalence data is updated annually in Portugal, the General Practitioner's (GP) Sentinel Network represents the only data source on diabetes incidence. This study describes the trends in Diabetes incidence, between 1992 and 2015, and estimate projections for the future incidence rates in Portugal until 2024. An ecological time-series study was conducted using data from GP Sentinel Network between 1992 and 2015. Family doctors reported all new cases of Diabetes in their patients' lists. Annual trends were estimated through Poisson regression models as well as the future incidence rates (until 2024), sex and age group stratified. Incidence rate projections were adjusted to the distribution of the resident Portuguese population given Statistics Portugal projections. The average increase in Diabetes incidence rate was in total 4.29% (CI95% 3.80-4.80) per year under study. Until 1998-2000, the annual incidence rate was higher in women, and from 1998-2000 to 2013-2015 turn out to be higher in men. The incidence rate projected for 2022-2024 was 972.77/10(5) inhabitants in total, and 846.74/10(5) and 1114.42/10(5), respectively, in women and men. This is the first study in Portugal to estimate diabetes incidence rate projections. The disturbing reported projections seem realistic if things continue as in the past. Actually, effective public health policies will need to be undertaken to minimize this alarming future scenario. Copyright © 2016 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust estimators based on generalization of trimmed mean

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Adam, Lukáš; Bejda, P.

(2018) ISSN 0361-0918 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Breakdown point * Estimators * Geometric median * Location * Trimmed mean Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.457, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/MTR/adam-0481224.pdf

Improvement of image quality using interpolated projection data estimation method in SPECT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takaki, Akihiro; Soma, Tsutomu; Murase, Kenya; Kojima, Akihiro; Asao, Kimie; Kamada, Shinya; Matsumoto, Masanori

2009-01-01

General data acquisition for single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) is performed in 90 or 60 directions, with a coarse pitch of approximately 4-6 deg for a rotation of 360 deg or 180 deg, using a gamma camera. No data between adjacent projections will be sampled under these circumstances. The aim of the study was to develop a method to improve SPECT image quality by generating lacking projection data through interpolation of data obtained with a coarse pitch such as 6 deg. The projection data set at each individual degree in 360 directions was generated by a weighted average interpolation method from the projection data acquired with a coarse sampling angle (interpolated projection data estimation processing method, IPDE method). The IPDE method was applied to the numerical digital phantom data, actual phantom data and clinical brain data with Tc-99m ethyle cysteinate dimer (ECD). All SPECT images were reconstructed by the filtered back-projection method and compared with the original SPECT images. The results confirmed that streak artifacts decreased by apparently increasing a sampling number in SPECT after interpolation and also improved signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio of the root mean square uncertainty value. Furthermore, the normalized mean square error values, compared with standard images, had similar ones after interpolation. Moreover, the contrast and concentration ratios increased their effects after interpolation. These results indicate that effective improvement of image quality can be expected with interpolation. Thus, image quality and the ability to depict images can be improved while maintaining the present acquisition time and image quality. In addition, this can be achieved more effectively than at present even if the acquisition time is reduced. (author)

Generalized synchronization-based multiparameter estimation in modulated time-delayed systems

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Dibakar; Bhattacharyya, Bidyut K.

2011-09-01

We propose a nonlinear active observer based generalized synchronization scheme for multiparameter estimation in time-delayed systems with periodic time delay. A sufficient condition for parameter estimation is derived using Krasovskii-Lyapunov theory. The suggested tool proves to be globally and asymptotically stable by means of Krasovskii-Lyapunov method. With this effective method, parameter identification and generalized synchronization of modulated time-delayed systems with all the system parameters unknown, can be achieved simultaneously. We restrict our study for multiple parameter estimation in modulated time-delayed systems with single state variable only. Theoretical proof and numerical simulation demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed technique. The block diagram of electronic circuit for multiple time delay system shows that the method is easily applicable in practical communication problems.

Bayes estimation of the general hazard rate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarhan, A.

1999-01-01

In reliability theory and life testing models, the life time distributions are often specified by choosing a relevant hazard rate function. Here a general hazard rate function h(t)=a+bt c-1 , where c, a, b are constants greater than zero, is considered. The parameter c is assumed to be known. The Bayes estimators of (a,b) based on the data of type II/item-censored testing without replacement are obtained. A large simulation study using Monte Carlo Method is done to compare the performance of Bayes with regression estimators of (a,b). The criterion for comparison is made based on the Bayes risk associated with the respective estimator. Also, the influence of the number of failed items on the accuracy of the estimators (Bayes and regression) is investigated. Estimations for the parameters (a,b) of the linearly increasing hazard rate model h(t)=a+bt, where a, b are greater than zero, can be obtained as the special case, letting c=2

Robust-BD Estimation and Inference for General Partially Linear Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chunming Zhang

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The classical quadratic loss for the partially linear model (PLM and the likelihood function for the generalized PLM are not resistant to outliers. This inspires us to propose a class of “robust-Bregman divergence (BD” estimators of both the parametric and nonparametric components in the general partially linear model (GPLM, which allows the distribution of the response variable to be partially specified, without being fully known. Using the local-polynomial function estimation method, we propose a computationally-efficient procedure for obtaining “robust-BD” estimators and establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the “robust-BD” estimator of the parametric component β o . For inference procedures of β o in the GPLM, we show that the Wald-type test statistic W n constructed from the “robust-BD” estimators is asymptotically distribution free under the null, whereas the likelihood ratio-type test statistic Λ n is not. This provides an insight into the distinction from the asymptotic equivalence (Fan and Huang 2005 between W n and Λ n in the PLM constructed from profile least-squares estimators using the non-robust quadratic loss. Numerical examples illustrate the computational effectiveness of the proposed “robust-BD” estimators and robust Wald-type test in the appearance of outlying observations.

Generalized projective synchronization of a unified chaotic system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yan Jianping; Li Changpin

2005-01-01

In the present paper, a simple but efficient control technique of the generalized projective synchronization is applied to a unified chaotic system. Numerical simulations show that this method works very well, which can also be applied to other chaotic systems

Specifying general activity clusters for ERP projects aimed at effort prediction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssens, G.; Kusters, R.J.; Heemstra, F.J.; Gunasekaran, A.; Shea, T.

2010-01-01

ERP implementation projects affect large parts of an implementing organization and lead to changes in the way an organization performs its tasks. The costs needed for the effort to implement these systems are hard to estimate. Research indicates that the size of an ERP project can be a useful

PMP Estimations at Sparsely Controlled Andinian Basins and Climate Change Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Lagos Zúñiga, M. A.; Vargas, X.

2012-12-01

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimation implies an extensive review of hydrometeorological data and understandig of precipitation formation processes. There exists different methodology processes that apply for their estimations and all of them require a good spatial and temporal representation of storms. The estimation of hydrometeorological PMP on sparsely controlled basins is a difficult task, specially if the studied area has an important orographic effect due to mountains and the mixed precipitation occurrence in the most several storms time period, the main task of this study is to propose and estimate PMP in a sparsely controlled basin, affected by abrupt topography and mixed hidrology basin; also analyzing statystic uncertainties estimations and possible climate changes effects in its estimation. In this study the PMP estimation under statistical and hydrometeorological aproaches (watershed-based and traditional depth area duration analysis) was done in a semi arid zone at Puclaro dam in north Chile. Due to the lack of good spatial meteorological representation at the study zone, we propose a methodology to consider the orographic effects of Los Andes due to orographic effects patterns based in a RCM PRECIS-DGF and annual isoyetal maps. Estimations were validated with precipitation patterns for given winters, considering snow route and rainfall gauges at the preferencial wind direction, finding good results. The estimations are also compared with the highest areal storms in USA, Australia, India and China and with frequency analysis in local rain gauge stations in order to decide about the most adequate approach for the study zone. Climate change projections were evaluated with ECHAM5 GCM model, due to its good quality representation in the seasonality and the magnitude of meteorological variables. Temperature projections, for 2040-2065 period, show that there would be a rise in the catchment contributing area that would lead to an increase of the

A general framework and review of scatter correction methods in cone beam CT. Part 2: Scatter estimation approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruehrnschopf and, Ernst-Peter; Klingenbeck, Klaus

2011-01-01

The main components of scatter correction procedures are scatter estimation and a scatter compensation algorithm. This paper completes a previous paper where a general framework for scatter compensation was presented under the prerequisite that a scatter estimation method is already available. In the current paper, the authors give a systematic review of the variety of scatter estimation approaches. Scatter estimation methods are based on measurements, mathematical-physical models, or combinations of both. For completeness they present an overview of measurement-based methods, but the main topic is the theoretically more demanding models, as analytical, Monte-Carlo, and hybrid models. Further classifications are 3D image-based and 2D projection-based approaches. The authors present a system-theoretic framework, which allows to proceed top-down from a general 3D formulation, by successive approximations, to efficient 2D approaches. A widely useful method is the beam-scatter-kernel superposition approach. Together with the review of standard methods, the authors discuss their limitations and how to take into account the issues of object dependency, spatial variance, deformation of scatter kernels, external and internal absorbers. Open questions for further investigations are indicated. Finally, the authors refer on some special issues and applications, such as bow-tie filter, offset detector, truncated data, and dual-source CT.

A General Model for Estimating Macroevolutionary Landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Boucher, Florian C; Démery, Vincent; Conti, Elena; Harmon, Luke J; Uyeda, Josef

2018-03-01

The evolution of quantitative characters over long timescales is often studied using stochastic diffusion models. The current toolbox available to students of macroevolution is however limited to two main models: Brownian motion and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, plus some of their extensions. Here, we present a very general model for inferring the dynamics of quantitative characters evolving under both random diffusion and deterministic forces of any possible shape and strength, which can accommodate interesting evolutionary scenarios like directional trends, disruptive selection, or macroevolutionary landscapes with multiple peaks. This model is based on a general partial differential equation widely used in statistical mechanics: the Fokker-Planck equation, also known in population genetics as the Kolmogorov forward equation. We thus call the model FPK, for Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov. We first explain how this model can be used to describe macroevolutionary landscapes over which quantitative traits evolve and, more importantly, we detail how it can be fitted to empirical data. Using simulations, we show that the model has good behavior both in terms of discrimination from alternative models and in terms of parameter inference. We provide R code to fit the model to empirical data using either maximum-likelihood or Bayesian estimation, and illustrate the use of this code with two empirical examples of body mass evolution in mammals. FPK should greatly expand the set of macroevolutionary scenarios that can be studied since it opens the way to estimating macroevolutionary landscapes of any conceivable shape. [Adaptation; bounds; diffusion; FPK model; macroevolution; maximum-likelihood estimation; MCMC methods; phylogenetic comparative data; selection.].

Promoting mobility and reducing length of stay in hospitalized general medicine patients: A quality-improvement project.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoyer, Erik H; Friedman, Michael; Lavezza, Annette; Wagner-Kosmakos, Kathleen; Lewis-Cherry, Robin; Skolnik, Judy L; Byers, Sherrie P; Atanelov, Levan; Colantuoni, Elizabeth; Brotman, Daniel J; Needham, Dale M

2016-05-01

To determine whether a multidisciplinary mobility promotion quality-improvement (QI) project would increase patient mobility and reduce hospital length of stay (LOS). Implemented using a structured QI model, the project took place between March 1, 2013 and March 1, 2014 on 2 general medicine units in a large academic medical center. There were 3352 patients admitted during the QI project period. The Johns Hopkins Highest Level of Mobility (JH-HLM) scale, an 8-point ordinal scale ranging from bed rest (score = 1) to ambulating ≥250 feet (score = 8), was used to quantify mobility. Changes in JH-HLM scores were compared for the first 4 months of the project (ramp-up phase) versus 4 months after project completion (post-QI phase) using generalized estimating equations. We compared the relative change in median LOS for the project months versus 12 months prior among the QI units, using multivariable linear regression analysis adjusting for 7 demographic and clinically relevant variables. Comparing the ramp-up versus post-QI phases, patients reaching JH-HLM's ambulation status increased from 43% to 70% (P mobility scores between admission and discharge increased from 32% to 45% (P 7 days), were associated with a significantly greater adjusted median reduction in LOS of 1.11 (95% CI: -1.53 to -0.65, P mobility was not associated with an increase in injurious falls compared to 12 months prior on the QI units (P = 0.73). Active prevention of a decline in physical function that commonly occurs during hospitalization may be achieved with a structured QI approach. In an adult medicine population, our QI project was associated with improved mobility, and this may have contributed to a reduction in LOS, particularly for more complex patients with longer expected hospital stay. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2016. © 2016 Society of Hospital Medicine. © 2016 Society of Hospital Medicine.

Wideband DOA Estimation through Projection Matrix Interpolation

OpenAIRE

Selva, J.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a method to reduce the complexity of the deterministic maximum likelihood (DML) estimator in the wideband direction-of-arrival (WDOA) problem, which is based on interpolating the array projection matrix in the temporal frequency variable. It is shown that an accurate interpolator like Chebyshev's is able to produce DML cost functions comprising just a few narrowband-like summands. Actually, the number of such summands is far smaller (roughly by factor ten in the numerical ...

Implications of applying solar industry best practice resource estimation on project financing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pacudan, Romeo

2016-01-01

Solar resource estimation risk is one of the main solar PV project risks that influences lender’s decision in providing financing and in determining the cost of capital. More recently, a number of measures have emerged to mitigate this risk. The study focuses on solar industry’s best practice energy resource estimation and assesses its financing implications to the 27 MWp solar PV project study in Brunei Darussalam. The best practice in resource estimation uses multiple data sources through the measure-correlate-predict (MCP) technique as compared with the standard practice that rely solely on modelled data source. The best practice case generates resource data with lower uncertainty and yields superior high-confidence energy production estimate than the standard practice case. Using project financial parameters in Brunei Darussalam for project financing and adopting the international debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR) benchmark rates, the best practice case yields DSCRs that surpass the target rates while those of standard practice case stay below the reference rates. The best practice case could also accommodate higher debt share and have lower levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) while the standard practice case would require a lower debt share but having a higher LCOE. - Highlights: •Best practice solar energy resource estimation uses multiple datasets. •Multiple datasets are combined through measure-correlate-predict technique. •Correlated data have lower uncertainty and yields superior high-confidence energy production. •Best practice case yields debt-service coverage ratios (DSCRs) that surpass the benchmark rates. •Best practice case accommodates high debt share and have low levelized cost of electricity.

Laser projection using generalized phase contrast

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Glückstad, Jesper; Palima, Darwin; Rodrigo, Peter John

2007-01-01

is introduced. An arbitrary phase shift filter eliminates the need for high-frequency modulation and conjugate phase encoding. This lowers device performance requirements and allows practical implementation with currently available dynamic spatial light modulators. (c) 2007 Optical Society of America.......We demonstrate experimental laser projection of a gray-level photographic image with 74% light efficiency using the generalized phase contrast (GPC) method. In contrast with a previously proposed technique [Alonzo et al., New J. Phys. 9, 132 (2007)], a new approach to image construction via GPC...

Generalized algorithm for X-ray projections generation in cone-beam tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qin Zhongyuan; Mu Xuanqin; Wang Ping; Cai Yuanlong; Hou Chuanjian

2002-01-01

In order to get rid of random factors in the measurement so as to support proceeding 3D reconstruction, a general approach is presented to obtain the X-ray projections in cone-beam tomography. The phantom is firstly discretized into cubic volume through inverse transformation then a generalized projection procedure is proposed to the digitized result without concerning what the phantom exactly is. In the second step, line integrals are calculated to obtain the projection of each X-ray through accumulation of tri-linear interpolation. Considering projection angles, a rotation matrix is proposed to the X-ray source and the detector plane so projections in arbitrary angles can be got. In this approach the algorithm is easy to be extended and irregular objects can also be processed. The algorithm is implemented in Visual C++ and experiments are done using different models. Satisfactory results are obtained. It makes good preparation for the proceeding reconstruction

Kernel and wavelet density estimators on manifolds and more general metric spaces

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cleanthous, G.; Georgiadis, Athanasios; Kerkyacharian, G.

We consider the problem of estimating the density of observations taking values in classical or nonclassical spaces such as manifolds and more general metric spaces. Our setting is quite general but also sufficiently rich in allowing the development of smooth functional calculus with well localized...... spectral kernels, Besov regularity spaces, and wavelet type systems. Kernel and both linear and nonlinear wavelet density estimators are introduced and studied. Convergence rates for these estimators are established, which are analogous to the existing results in the classical setting of real...

Integrating Portfolio Management and Simulation Concepts in the ERP Project Estimation Practice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Daneva, Maia; Paech, B.; Rolland, C

2008-01-01

This paper presents a two-site case study on requirements-based effort estimation practices in enterprise resource planning projects. Specifically, the case study investigated the question of how to handle qualitative data and highly volatile values of project context characteristics. We counterpart

Doubly robust estimation of generalized partial linear models for longitudinal data with dropouts.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Huiming; Fu, Bo; Qin, Guoyou; Zhu, Zhongyi

2017-12-01

We develop a doubly robust estimation of generalized partial linear models for longitudinal data with dropouts. Our method extends the highly efficient aggregate unbiased estimating function approach proposed in Qu et al. (2010) to a doubly robust one in the sense that under missing at random (MAR), our estimator is consistent when either the linear conditional mean condition is satisfied or a model for the dropout process is correctly specified. We begin with a generalized linear model for the marginal mean, and then move forward to a generalized partial linear model, allowing for nonparametric covariate effect by using the regression spline smoothing approximation. We establish the asymptotic theory for the proposed method and use simulation studies to compare its finite sample performance with that of Qu's method, the complete-case generalized estimating equation (GEE) and the inverse-probability weighted GEE. The proposed method is finally illustrated using data from a longitudinal cohort study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Sparse Adaptive Channel Estimation Based on lp-Norm-Penalized Affine Projection Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yingsong Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We propose an lp-norm-penalized affine projection algorithm (LP-APA for broadband multipath adaptive channel estimations. The proposed LP-APA is realized by incorporating an lp-norm into the cost function of the conventional affine projection algorithm (APA to exploit the sparsity property of the broadband wireless multipath channel, by which the convergence speed and steady-state performance of the APA are significantly improved. The implementation of the LP-APA is equivalent to adding a zero attractor to its iterations. The simulation results, which are obtained from a sparse channel estimation, demonstrate that the proposed LP-APA can efficiently improve channel estimation performance in terms of both the convergence speed and steady-state performance when the channel is exactly sparse.

Asymptotic theory of generalized estimating equations based on jack-knife pseudo-observations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Overgaard, Morten; Parner, Erik Thorlund; Pedersen, Jan

2017-01-01

A general asymptotic theory of estimates from estimating functions based on jack-knife pseudo-observations is established by requiring that the underlying estimator can be expressed as a smooth functional of the empirical distribution. Using results in p-variation norms, the theory is applied...

Working covariance model selection for generalized estimating equations.

Science.gov (United States)

Carey, Vincent J; Wang, You-Gan

2011-11-20

We investigate methods for data-based selection of working covariance models in the analysis of correlated data with generalized estimating equations. We study two selection criteria: Gaussian pseudolikelihood and a geodesic distance based on discrepancy between model-sensitive and model-robust regression parameter covariance estimators. The Gaussian pseudolikelihood is found in simulation to be reasonably sensitive for several response distributions and noncanonical mean-variance relations for longitudinal data. Application is also made to a clinical dataset. Assessment of adequacy of both correlation and variance models for longitudinal data should be routine in applications, and we describe open-source software supporting this practice. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A New 4D Hyperchaotic System and Its Generalized Function Projective Synchronization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuan Gao

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A new four-dimensional hyperchaotic system is investigated. Numerical and analytical studies are carried out on its basic dynamical properties, such as equilibrium point, Lyapunov exponents, Poincaré maps, and chaotic dynamical behaviors. We verify the realizability of the new system via an electronic circuit by using Multisim software. Furthermore, a generalized function projective synchronization scheme of two different hyperchaotic systems with uncertain parameters is proposed, which includes some existing projective synchronization schemes, such as generalized projection synchronization and function projective synchronization. Based on the Lyapunov stability theory, a controller with parameters update laws is designed to realize synchronization. Using this controller, we realize the synchronization between Chen hyperchaotic system and the new system to verify the validity and feasibility of our method.

Estimating pediatric general anesthesia exposure: Quantifying duration and risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Bartels, Devan Darby; McCann, Mary Ellen; Davidson, Andrew J; Polaner, David M; Whitlock, Elizabeth L; Bateman, Brian T

2018-05-02

Understanding the duration of pediatric general anesthesia exposure in contemporary practice is important for identifying groups at risk for long general anesthesia exposures and designing trials examining associations between general anesthesia exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes. We performed a retrospective cohort analysis to estimate pediatric general anesthesia exposure duration during 2010-2015 using the National Anesthesia Clinical Outcomes Registry. A total of 1 548 021 pediatric general anesthetics were included. Median general anesthesia duration was 57 minutes (IQR: 28-86) with 90th percentile 145 minutes. Children aged 3 hours. High ASA physical status and care at a university hospital were associated with longer exposure times. While the vast majority (94%) of children undergoing general anesthesia are exposed for risk for longer exposures. These findings may help guide the design of future trials aimed at understanding neurodevelopmental impact of prolonged exposure in these high-risk groups. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Explicit estimating equations for semiparametric generalized linear latent variable models

KAUST Repository

Ma, Yanyuan

2010-07-05

We study generalized linear latent variable models without requiring a distributional assumption of the latent variables. Using a geometric approach, we derive consistent semiparametric estimators. We demonstrate that these models have a property which is similar to that of a sufficient complete statistic, which enables us to simplify the estimating procedure and explicitly to formulate the semiparametric estimating equations. We further show that the explicit estimators have the usual root n consistency and asymptotic normality. We explain the computational implementation of our method and illustrate the numerical performance of the estimators in finite sample situations via extensive simulation studies. The advantage of our estimators over the existing likelihood approach is also shown via numerical comparison. We employ the method to analyse a real data example from economics. © 2010 Royal Statistical Society.

Efficient semiparametric estimation in generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data

KAUST Repository

Cheng, Guang

2014-02-01

We consider efficient estimation of the Euclidean parameters in a generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data when multiple covariates need to be modeled nonparametrically, and propose an estimation procedure based on a spline approximation of the nonparametric part of the model and the generalized estimating equations (GEE). Although the model in consideration is natural and useful in many practical applications, the literature on this model is very limited because of challenges in dealing with dependent data for nonparametric additive models. We show that the proposed estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal even if the covariance structure is misspecified. An explicit consistent estimate of the asymptotic variance is also provided. Moreover, we derive the semiparametric efficiency score and information bound under general moment conditions. By showing that our estimators achieve the semiparametric information bound, we effectively establish their efficiency in a stronger sense than what is typically considered for GEE. The derivation of our asymptotic results relies heavily on the empirical processes tools that we develop for the longitudinal/clustered data. Numerical results are used to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. © 2014 ISI/BS.

Exploratory shaft liner corrosion estimate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duncan, D.R.

1985-10-01

An estimate of expected corrosion degradation during the 100-year design life of the Exploratory Shaft (ES) is presented. The basis for the estimate is a brief literature survey of corrosion data, in addition to data taken by the Basalt Waste Isolation Project. The scope of the study is expected corrosion environment of the ES, the corrosion modes of general corrosion, pitting and crevice corrosion, dissimilar metal corrosion, and environmentally assisted cracking. The expected internal and external environment of the shaft liner is described in detail and estimated effects of each corrosion mode are given. The maximum amount of general corrosion degradation was estimated to be 70 mils at the exterior and 48 mils at the interior, at the shaft bottom. Corrosion at welds or mechanical joints could be significant, dependent on design. After a final determination of corrosion allowance has been established by the project it will be added to the design criteria. 10 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs

The SKI-project External events - Phase 2. Estimation of fire frequencies per plant and per building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poern, K.

1996-08-01

The Swedish-Finnish handbook for initiating event frequencies, I-Book, does not contain any fire frequencies. This matter of fact is not defensible considering the substantial risk contribution caused by fires. In the PSAs performed hitherto the initiating fire frequencies have been determined from case to case. Because data are usually very scarce in these areas it is very important to develop unique definitions, to systematically utilize both international and national experiences and to establish an appropriate statistical estimation method. It is also important to present the accumulated experience such that it can be used for different purposes, not only within PSA but also in the concrete fire preventive work. During phase 1 of the project External Events an inventory was made of existing methods for probabilistic fire analysis in general. During phase 2 of the project it was decided to initialize the work on a complementary handbook, called X-Book, in order to encompass the frequencies of system external events, i.e. initiating events that are caused by events occurring outside the system boundaries. In Version 1 of the X-Book the attention is mainly focussed on the estimation of initiating fire frequencies, per plant and per building. This estimation is basically founded on reports that the power companies have collected for this specific purpose. This report describes the statistical model and method that have been used in the estimation process. The methodological results achieved may, possibly after some modification, be applicable also to other types of system external events

Working with Climate Projections to Estimate Disease Burden: Perspectives from Public Health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathryn C. Conlon

2016-08-01

Full Text Available There is interest among agencies and public health practitioners in the United States (USA to estimate the future burden of climate-related health outcomes. Calculating disease burden projections can be especially daunting, given the complexities of climate modeling and the multiple pathways by which climate influences public health. Interdisciplinary coordination between public health practitioners and climate scientists is necessary for scientifically derived estimates. We describe a unique partnership of state and regional climate scientists and public health practitioners assembled by the Florida Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE program. We provide a background on climate modeling and projections that has been developed specifically for public health practitioners, describe methodologies for combining climate and health data to project disease burden, and demonstrate three examples of this process used in Florida.

A general exact method for synthesizing parallel-beam projections from cone-beam projections via filtered backprojection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Liang; Chen Zhiqiang; Xing Yuxiang; Zhang Li; Kang Kejun; Wang Ge

2006-01-01

In recent years, image reconstruction methods for cone-beam computed tomography (CT) have been extensively studied. However, few of these studies discussed computing parallel-beam projections from cone-beam projections. In this paper, we focus on the exact synthesis of complete or incomplete parallel-beam projections from cone-beam projections. First, an extended central slice theorem is described to establish a relationship between the Radon space and the Fourier space. Then, data sufficiency conditions are proposed for computing parallel-beam projection data from cone-beam data. Using these results, a general filtered backprojection algorithm is formulated that can exactly synthesize parallel-beam projection data from cone-beam projection data. As an example, we prove that parallel-beam projections can be exactly synthesized in an angular range in the case of circular cone-beam scanning. Interestingly, this angular range is larger than that derived in the Feldkamp reconstruction framework. Numerical experiments are performed in the circular scanning case to verify our method

The Process to Estimate Economical Benefits of Six Sigma Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Kosina

2013-07-01

Full Text Available This paper seeks to define the process for the continuous evaluation of the financial benefits during Six Sigma project life time. The financial criteria are critical success factors of a Six Sigma project. The process has been developed as part of the six sigma project monitoring in order to estimate proper allocation of the resources taking in account the expected project benefits as well as evaluationof real achievements. The evaluation of the finacial benefits based on the quality costs is not sufficient in the real life and has to be accomplished with key financial performance indicators of the business to visualize the results. The evaluation based on the savings seems to be too difficult especially for green belts. The early involvement of the finance department in the project definition as well as ongoing evaluation is key. The defined process has been applied to real business enviroment.

An Estimator of Heavy Tail Index through the Generalized Jackknife Methodology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weiqi Liu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In practice, sometimes the data can be divided into several blocks but only a few of the largest observations within each block are available to estimate the heavy tail index. To address this problem, we propose a new class of estimators through the Generalized Jackknife methodology based on Qi’s estimator (2010. These estimators are proved to be asymptotically normal under suitable conditions. Compared to Hill’s estimator and Qi’s estimator, our new estimator has better asymptotic efficiency in terms of the minimum mean squared error, for a wide range of the second order shape parameters. For the finite samples, our new estimator still compares favorably to Hill’s estimator and Qi’s estimator, providing stable sample paths as a function of the number of dividing the sample into blocks, smaller estimation bias, and MSE.

The analysis of projected fission track lengths

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laslett, G.M.; Galbraith, R.F.; Green, P.F.

1994-01-01

This article deals with the question of how features of the thermal history can be estimated from projected track length measurements, i.e. lengths of the remaining parts of tracks that have intersected a surface, projected onto that surface. The appropriate mathematical theory is described and used to provide a sound basis both for understanding the nature of projected length measurements and for analysing observed data. The estimation of thermal history parameters corresponding to the current temperature, the maximum palaeotemperature and the time since cooling, is studied using laboratory data and simulations. In general the information contained in projected track lengths and angles is fairly limited, compared, for example, with that from a much smaller number of confined tracks, though we identify some circumstances when such measurements may be useful. Also it is not straightforward to extract the information and simple ad hoc estimation methods are generally inadequate. (author)

Generalized Schmidt decomposability and its relation to projective norms in multipartite entanglement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sokoli, Florian; Alber, Gernot

2014-01-01

Projective norms are capable of measuring entanglement of multipartite quantum states. However, typically, the explicit computation of these distance-based geometric entanglement monotones is very difficult even for finite dimensional systems. Motivated by the significance of Schmidt decompositions for our quantitative understanding of bipartite quantum entanglement, a generalization of this concept to multipartite scenarios is proposed, in the sense that generalized Schmidt decomposability of a multipartite pure state implies that its projective norm can be calculated in a simple way analogous to the bipartite case. Thus, this concept of generalized Schmidt decomposability of multipartite quantum states is linked in a natural way to projective norms as entanglement monotones. Therefore, it may not only be a convenient tool for calculations, but may also shed new light onto the intricate features of multipartite entanglement in an analogous way as the ‘classical’ Schmidt decomposition does for bipartite quantum systems. (paper)

Projective and hybrid projective synchronization for the Lorenz-Stenflo system with estimation of unknown parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mukherjee, Payel; Banerjee, Santo

2010-01-01

In this work, in the first phase, we study the phenomenon of projective synchronization in the Lorenz-Stenflo system. Synchronization is then investigated for the same system with unknown parameters. We show analytically that synchronization is possible for some proper choice of the nonlinear controller by using a suitable Lyapunov function. With the help of this result, it is also possible to estimate the values of the unknown system parameters. In the second phase as an extension of our analysis, we investigate the new hybrid projective synchronization for the same system. All our analyses are well supported with numerical evidence.

Bulk material management mode of general contractors in nuclear power project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Jinyong; Zhao Xiaobo

2011-01-01

The paper introduces the characteristics of bulk material management mode in construction project, and the advantages and disadvantages of bulk material management mode of general contractors in nuclear power project. In combination with the bulk material management mode of China Nuclear Power Engineering Co., Ltd, some improvement measures have been put forward as well. (authors)

The generalized correlation method for estimation of time delay in power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kostic, Lj.

1981-01-01

The generalized correlation estimation is developed for determining time delay between signals received at two spatially separated sensors in the presence of uncorrelated noise in a power plant. This estimator can be realized as a pair of receiver prefilters followed by a cross correlator. The time argument at which the correlator achieves a maximum is the delay estimate. (author)

Generalized allometric regression to estimate biomass of Populus in short-rotation coppice

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ben Brahim, Mohammed; Gavaland, Andre; Cabanettes, Alain [INRA Centre de Toulouse, Castanet-Tolosane Cedex (France). Unite Agroforesterie et Foret Paysanne

2000-07-01

Data from four different stands were combined to establish a single generalized allometric equation to estimate above-ground biomass of individual Populus trees grown on short-rotation coppice. The generalized model was performed using diameter at breast height, the mean diameter and the mean height of each site as dependent variables and then compared with the stand-specific regressions using F-test. Results showed that this single regression estimates tree biomass well at each stand and does not introduce bias with increasing diameter.

Reliance on and Reliability of the Engineer’s Estimate in Heavy Civil Projects

OpenAIRE

Okere, George

2017-01-01

To the contractor, the engineer’s estimate is the target number to aim for, and the basis for a contractor to evaluate the accuracy of their estimate. To the owner, the engineer’s estimate is the basis for funding, evaluation of bids, and for predicting project costs. As such the engineer’s estimate is the benchmark. This research sought to investigate the reliance on, and the reliability of the engineer’s estimate in heavy civil cost estimate. The research objective was to characterize the e...

Definition of the generalized criterion of estimation of ecological purity of textile products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gintibidze, N.; Valishvili, T.

2009-01-01

One of actual problems is the estimation of hygienic and ecological properties of fabrics on the basis of the data on the properties of initial fiber. In the present article, the definition of generalized criterion of the estimation of ecological purity of textile products is discussed. The estimation is based on the International Standard EKO-TEX-100, regulating the contents of inorganic and organic compounds in textile production. The determination of all listed substances is made according to appropriate techniques for each parameter. The quantity of substances is determined and compared with norms. The judgement about ecological purity is made by separate parameters. There is no uniform parameter which could estimate the degree of ecological purity of textile products. For calculating the generalized criterion of estimation of ecological purity of textile products, it is offered to estimate each criterion by the points corresponding to each factor. The textile product is recognized as ecologically pure (environment friendly) if the total estimate is more than 1. (author)

Project cost estimation techniques used by most emerging building ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

consisted of five distinct types of contractors, general builders, civil engineers, electricians ... Mmboswobeni Watson Ladzani, Department of Business Management, University of South .... final cost of a proposed project for a given work scope. Thus, by .... Since the test statistic does not exceed the critical region, the null.

Estimation of the 3D positioning of anatomic structures from radiographic projection and volume knowledge

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bifulco, P; Cesarelli, M; Roccasalva Firenze, M; Verso, E; Sansone, M; Bracale, M [University of Naples, Federico II, Electronic Engineering Department, Bioengineering Unit, Via Claudio, 21 - 80125 Naples (Italy)

1999-12-31

The aim of this study is to develop a method to estimate the 3D positioning of an anatomic structure using the knowledge of its volume (provided by CT or MRI) combined with a single radiographic projection. This method could be applied in stereotactic surgery or in the study of 3D body joints kinematics. The knowledge of the 3D anatomical structure, available from CT (or in future MRI) is used to estimate the orientation of the projection that better match the actual 2D available projection. For this purpose it was necessary to develop an algorithm to simulate the radiographic projections. The radiographic image formation process has been simulated utilizing the geometrical characteristics of a real radiographic device and the volumetric anatomical data of the patient, obtained by 3D diagnostic CT images. The position of the patient volume respect to the radiological device is estimated comparing the actual radiographic projection with those simulated, maximising a similarity index. To assess the estimation, the 3D positioning of a segmented vertebra has been used as a test volume. The assessment has been carried out only by means of simulation. Estimation errors have been statistically evaluated. Conditions of mispositioning and noise have been also considered. The results relative to the simulation show the feasibility of the method. From the analysis of the errors emerges that the searching procedure results robust respect to the addition of white Gaussian noise. (authors) 13 fers., 4 figs., 1 tabs.

Estimation of the 3D positioning of anatomic structures from radiographic projection and volume knowledge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bifulco, P.; Cesarelli, M.; Roccasalva Firenze, M.; Verso, E.; Sansone, M.; Bracale, M.

1998-01-01

The aim of this study is to develop a method to estimate the 3D positioning of an anatomic structure using the knowledge of its volume (provided by CT or MRI) combined with a single radiographic projection. This method could be applied in stereotactic surgery or in the study of 3D body joints kinematics. The knowledge of the 3D anatomical structure, available from CT (or in future MRI) is used to estimate the orientation of the projection that better match the actual 2D available projection. For this purpose it was necessary to develop an algorithm to simulate the radiographic projections. The radiographic image formation process has been simulated utilizing the geometrical characteristics of a real radiographic device and the volumetric anatomical data of the patient, obtained by 3D diagnostic CT images. The position of the patient volume respect to the radiological device is estimated comparing the actual radiographic projection with those simulated, maximising a similarity index. To assess the estimation, the 3D positioning of a segmented vertebra has been used as a test volume. The assessment has been carried out only by means of simulation. Estimation errors have been statistically evaluated. Conditions of mispositioning and noise have been also considered. The results relative to the simulation show the feasibility of the method. From the analysis of the errors emerges that the searching procedure results robust respect to the addition of white Gaussian noise. (authors)

Structures of generalized 3-circular projections for symmetric norms

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Generalized bi-circular projection has been studied by many authors (see the subse- quent paragraph and references at the end of this paper). In particular, Botelho [4] and. Botelho and Jamison [5–8] extensively investigated the structures of GBPs for different. Banach spaces whose isometry group has concrete description ...

A projection-based approach to general-form Tikhonov regularization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kilmer, Misha E.; Hansen, Per Christian; Espanol, Malena I.

2007-01-01

We present a projection-based iterative algorithm for computing general-form Tikhonov regularized solutions to the problem minx| Ax-b |2^2+lambda2| Lx |2^2, where the regularization matrix L is not the identity. Our algorithm is designed for the common case where lambda is not known a priori...

The influence of population characteristics on variation in general practice based morbidity estimations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

van den Dungen C

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background General practice based registration networks (GPRNs provide information on morbidity rates in the population. Morbidity rate estimates from different GPRNs, however, reveal considerable, unexplained differences. We studied the range and variation in morbidity estimates, as well as the extent to which the differences in morbidity rates between general practices and networks change if socio-demographic characteristics of the listed patient populations are taken into account. Methods The variation in incidence and prevalence rates of thirteen diseases among six Dutch GPRNs and the influence of age, gender, socio economic status (SES, urbanization level, and ethnicity are analyzed using multilevel logistic regression analysis. Results are expressed in median odds ratios (MOR. Results We observed large differences in morbidity rate estimates both on the level of general practices as on the level of networks. The differences in SES, urbanization level and ethnicity distribution among the networks' practice populations are substantial. The variation in morbidity rate estimates among networks did not decrease after adjusting for these socio-demographic characteristics. Conclusion Socio-demographic characteristics of populations do not explain the differences in morbidity estimations among GPRNs.

Admissible Estimators in the General Multivariate Linear Model with Respect to Inequality Restricted Parameter Set

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shangli Zhang

2009-01-01

Full Text Available By using the methods of linear algebra and matrix inequality theory, we obtain the characterization of admissible estimators in the general multivariate linear model with respect to inequality restricted parameter set. In the classes of homogeneous and general linear estimators, the necessary and suffcient conditions that the estimators of regression coeffcient function are admissible are established.

Estimation and variable selection for generalized additive partial linear models

KAUST Repository

Wang, Li

2011-08-01

We study generalized additive partial linear models, proposing the use of polynomial spline smoothing for estimation of nonparametric functions, and deriving quasi-likelihood based estimators for the linear parameters. We establish asymptotic normality for the estimators of the parametric components. The procedure avoids solving large systems of equations as in kernel-based procedures and thus results in gains in computational simplicity. We further develop a class of variable selection procedures for the linear parameters by employing a nonconcave penalized quasi-likelihood, which is shown to have an asymptotic oracle property. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical example are presented for illustration. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2011.

Fast computation of statistical uncertainty for spatiotemporal distributions estimated directly from dynamic cone beam SPECT projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reutter, Bryan W.; Gullberg, Grant T.; Huesman, Ronald H.

2001-01-01

The estimation of time-activity curves and kinetic model parameters directly from projection data is potentially useful for clinical dynamic single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) studies, particularly in those clinics that have only single-detector systems and thus are not able to perform rapid tomographic acquisitions. Because the radiopharmaceutical distribution changes while the SPECT gantry rotates, projections at different angles come from different tracer distributions. A dynamic image sequence reconstructed from the inconsistent projections acquired by a slowly rotating gantry can contain artifacts that lead to biases in kinetic parameters estimated from time-activity curves generated by overlaying regions of interest on the images. If cone beam collimators are used and the focal point of the collimators always remains in a particular transaxial plane, additional artifacts can arise in other planes reconstructed using insufficient projection samples [1]. If the projection samples truncate the patient's body, this can result in additional image artifacts. To overcome these sources of bias in conventional image based dynamic data analysis, we and others have been investigating the estimation of time-activity curves and kinetic model parameters directly from dynamic SPECT projection data by modeling the spatial and temporal distribution of the radiopharmaceutical throughout the projected field of view [2-8]. In our previous work we developed a computationally efficient method for fully four-dimensional (4-D) direct estimation of spatiotemporal distributions from dynamic SPECT projection data [5], which extended Formiconi's least squares algorithm for reconstructing temporally static distributions [9]. In addition, we studied the biases that result from modeling various orders temporal continuity and using various time samplings [5]. the present work, we address computational issues associated with evaluating the statistical uncertainty of

General projective relativity and the vector-tensor gravitational field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arcidiacono, G.

1986-01-01

In the general projective relativity, the induced 4-dimensional metric is symmetric in three cases, and we obtain the vector-tensor, the scalar-tensor, and the scalar-vector-tensor theories of gravitation. In this work we examine the vector-tensor theory, similar to the Veblen's theory, but with a different physical interpretation

Estimating unbiased economies of scale of HIV prevention projects: a case study of Avahan.

Science.gov (United States)

Lépine, Aurélia; Vassall, Anna; Chandrashekar, Sudha; Blanc, Elodie; Le Nestour, Alexis

2015-04-01

Governments and donors are investing considerable resources on HIV prevention in order to scale up these services rapidly. Given the current economic climate, providers of HIV prevention services increasingly need to demonstrate that these investments offer good 'value for money'. One of the primary routes to achieve efficiency is to take advantage of economies of scale (a reduction in the average cost of a health service as provision scales-up), yet empirical evidence on economies of scale is scarce. Methodologically, the estimation of economies of scale is hampered by several statistical issues preventing causal inference and thus making the estimation of economies of scale complex. In order to estimate unbiased economies of scale when scaling up HIV prevention services, we apply our analysis to one of the few HIV prevention programmes globally delivered at a large scale: the Indian Avahan initiative. We costed the project by collecting data from the 138 Avahan NGOs and the supporting partners in the first four years of its scale-up, between 2004 and 2007. We develop a parsimonious empirical model and apply a system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and fixed-effects Instrumental Variable (IV) estimators to estimate unbiased economies of scale. At the programme level, we find that, after controlling for the endogeneity of scale, the scale-up of Avahan has generated high economies of scale. Our findings suggest that average cost reductions per person reached are achievable when scaling-up HIV prevention in low and middle income countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Generalized projective synchronization via the state observer and its application in secure communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Di; Li Juan-Juan

2010-01-01

Based on the improved state observer and the pole placement technique, by adding a constant which extends the scope of use of the original system, a new design method of generalized projective synchronization is proposed. With this method, by changing the projective synchronization scale factor, one can achieve not only complete synchronization, but also anti-synchronization, as well as arbitrary percentage of projective synchronization, so that the system may attain arbitrary synchronization in a relatively short period of time, which makes this study more meaningful. By numerical simulation, and choosing appropriate scale factor, the results of repeated experiments verify that this method is highly effective and satisfactory. Finally, based on this method and the relevant feedback concept, a novel secure communication project is designed. Numerical simulation verifies that this secure communication project is very valid, and moreover, the experimental result has been greatly improved in decryption time. (general)

A generally applicable lightweight method for calculating a value structure for tools and services in bioinformatics infrastructure projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Mayer, Gerhard; Quast, Christian; Felden, Janine; Lange, Matthias; Prinz, Manuel; Pühler, Alfred; Lawerenz, Chris; Scholz, Uwe; Glöckner, Frank Oliver; Müller, Wolfgang; Marcus, Katrin; Eisenacher, Martin

2017-10-30

Sustainable noncommercial bioinformatics infrastructures are a prerequisite to use and take advantage of the potential of big data analysis for research and economy. Consequently, funders, universities and institutes as well as users ask for a transparent value model for the tools and services offered. In this article, a generally applicable lightweight method is described by which bioinformatics infrastructure projects can estimate the value of tools and services offered without determining exactly the total costs of ownership. Five representative scenarios for value estimation from a rough estimation to a detailed breakdown of costs are presented. To account for the diversity in bioinformatics applications and services, the notion of service-specific 'service provision units' is introduced together with the factors influencing them and the main underlying assumptions for these 'value influencing factors'. Special attention is given on how to handle personnel costs and indirect costs such as electricity. Four examples are presented for the calculation of the value of tools and services provided by the German Network for Bioinformatics Infrastructure (de.NBI): one for tool usage, one for (Web-based) database analyses, one for consulting services and one for bioinformatics training events. Finally, from the discussed values, the costs of direct funding and the costs of payment of services by funded projects are calculated and compared. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Project Parameter Estimation on the Basis of an Erp Database

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Relich Marcin

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, more and more enterprises are using Enterprise Resource Planning (EPR systems that can also be used to plan and control the development of new products. In order to obtain a project schedule, certain parameters (e.g. duration have to be specified in an ERP system. These parameters can be defined by the employees according to their knowledge, or can be estimated on the basis of data from previously completed projects. This paper investigates using an ERP database to identify those variables that have a significant influence on the duration of a project phase. In the paper, a model of knowledge discovery from an ERP database is proposed. The presented method contains four stages of the knowledge discovery process such as data selection, data transformation, data mining and interpretation of patterns in the context of new product development. Among data mining techniques, a fuzzy neural system is chosen to seek relationships on the basis of data from completed projects stored in an ERP system.

Efficient semiparametric estimation in generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data

KAUST Repository

Cheng, Guang; Zhou, Lan; Huang, Jianhua Z.

2014-01-01

We consider efficient estimation of the Euclidean parameters in a generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data when multiple covariates need to be modeled nonparametrically, and propose an estimation procedure based

Non-parametric estimation of the availability in a general repairable system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gamiz, M.L.; Roman, Y.

2008-01-01

This work deals with repairable systems with unknown failure and repair time distributions. We focus on the estimation of the instantaneous availability, that is, the probability that the system is functioning at a given time, which we consider as the most significant measure for evaluating the effectiveness of a repairable system. The estimation of the availability function is not, in general, an easy task, i.e., analytical techniques are difficult to apply. We propose a smooth estimation of the availability based on kernel estimator of the cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of the failure and repair times, for which the bandwidth parameters are obtained by bootstrap procedures. The consistency properties of the availability estimator are established by using techniques based on the Laplace transform

Non-parametric estimation of the availability in a general repairable system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gamiz, M.L. [Departamento de Estadistica e I.O., Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, Granada 18071 (Spain)], E-mail: mgamiz@ugr.es; Roman, Y. [Departamento de Estadistica e I.O., Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, Granada 18071 (Spain)

2008-08-15

This work deals with repairable systems with unknown failure and repair time distributions. We focus on the estimation of the instantaneous availability, that is, the probability that the system is functioning at a given time, which we consider as the most significant measure for evaluating the effectiveness of a repairable system. The estimation of the availability function is not, in general, an easy task, i.e., analytical techniques are difficult to apply. We propose a smooth estimation of the availability based on kernel estimator of the cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of the failure and repair times, for which the bandwidth parameters are obtained by bootstrap procedures. The consistency properties of the availability estimator are established by using techniques based on the Laplace transform.

Prediction of Monte Carlo errors by a theory generalized to treat track-length estimators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Booth, T.E.; Amster, H.J.

1978-01-01

Present theories for predicting expected Monte Carlo errors in neutron transport calculations apply to estimates of flux-weighted integrals sampled directly by scoring individual collisions. To treat track-length estimators, the recent theory of Amster and Djomehri is generalized to allow the score distribution functions to depend on the coordinates of two successive collisions. It has long been known that the expected track length in a region of phase space equals the expected flux integrated over that region, but that the expected statistical error of the Monte Carlo estimate of the track length is different from that of the flux integral obtained by sampling the sum of the reciprocals of the cross sections for all collisions in the region. These conclusions are shown to be implied by the generalized theory, which provides explicit equations for the expected values and errors of both types of estimators. Sampling expected contributions to the track-length estimator is also treated. Other general properties of the errors for both estimators are derived from the equations and physically interpreted. The actual values of these errors are then obtained and interpreted for a simple specific example

Estimating the parameters of a generalized lambda distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fournier, B.; Rupin, N.; Najjar, D.; Iost, A.; Rupin, N.; Bigerelle, M.; Wilcox, R.; Fournier, B.

2007-01-01

The method of moments is a popular technique for estimating the parameters of a generalized lambda distribution (GLD), but published results suggest that the percentile method gives superior results. However, the percentile method cannot be implemented in an automatic fashion, and automatic methods, like the starship method, can lead to prohibitive execution time with large sample sizes. A new estimation method is proposed that is automatic (it does not require the use of special tables or graphs), and it reduces the computational time. Based partly on the usual percentile method, this new method also requires choosing which quantile u to use when fitting a GLD to data. The choice for u is studied and it is found that the best choice depends on the final goal of the modeling process. The sampling distribution of the new estimator is studied and compared to the sampling distribution of estimators that have been proposed. Naturally, all estimators are biased and here it is found that the bias becomes negligible with sample sizes n ≥ 2 * 10(3). The.025 and.975 quantiles of the sampling distribution are investigated, and the difference between these quantiles is found to decrease proportionally to 1/root n.. The same results hold for the moment and percentile estimates. Finally, the influence of the sample size is studied when a normal distribution is modeled by a GLD. Both bounded and unbounded GLDs are used and the bounded GLD turns out to be the most accurate. Indeed it is shown that, up to n = 10(6), bounded GLD modeling cannot be rejected by usual goodness-of-fit tests. (authors)

General Aviation in Nebraska: Nebraska SATS Project Background Paper No. 1

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Russell; Wachal, Jocelyn

2000-01-01

The Nebraska SATS project is a state-level component of NASA's Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS). During the next several years the project will examine several different factors affecting SATS implementation in Nebraska. These include economic and taxation issues, public policy issues, airport planning processes, information dissemination strategies, and systemic change factors. This background paper profiles the general aviation system in Nebraska. It is written to provide information about the "context" within which SATS will be pursued. The primary focus is thus on describing and providing background information about the current situation. A secondary focus is on drawing general conclusions about the ability of the current system to incorporate the types of changes implied by SATS. First, some brief information on the U.S. aviation system is provided. The next two sections profile the current general aviation aircraft and pilot base. Nebraska's system of general aviation airports is then described. Within this section of the paper, information is provided on the different types of general aviation airports in Nebraska, airport activity levels and current infrastructure. The fourth major section of the background paper looks at Nebraska's local airport authorities. These special purpose local governments oversee the majority of the general aviation airports in the state. Among the items examined are total expenditures, capital expenditures and planning activities. Next, the paper provides background information on the Nebraska Department of Aeronautics (NDA) and recent Federal funding for general aviation in Nebraska. The final section presents summary conclusions.

Generalized least squares and empirical Bayes estimation in regional partial duration series index-flood modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

1997-01-01

parameters is inferred from regional data using generalized least squares (GLS) regression. Two different Bayesian T-year event estimators are introduced: a linear estimator that requires only some moments of the prior distributions to be specified and a parametric estimator that is based on specified......A regional estimation procedure that combines the index-flood concept with an empirical Bayes method for inferring regional information is introduced. The model is based on the partial duration series approach with generalized Pareto (GP) distributed exceedances. The prior information of the model...

Controlling general projective synchronization of fractional order Rossler systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shao Shiquan

2009-01-01

This paper proposed a method to achieve general projective synchronization of two fractional order Rossler systems. First, we construct the fractional order Rossler system's corresponding approximation integer order system. Then, a control method based on a partially linear decomposition and negative feedback of state errors was utilized on the integer order system. Numerical simulations show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Generalized projective synchronization between Lorenz system and Chen's system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Guohui

2007-01-01

On the basis of active backstepping design, this paper presents the generalized projective synchronization between two different chaotic systems: Lorenz system and Chen's system. The proposed method combines backstepping methods and active control without having to calculate the Lyapunov exponents and the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix, which makes it simple and convenient. Numerical simulations show that this method works very well

Some Convergence Strategies for the Alternating Generalized Projection Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maricarmen Andrade

2013-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper we extend the application of the alternating projection algorithm to solve the problem of finding a point in the intersection of $n$ sets ($n\\geq2$, which are not all of them convex sets. Here we term such method as alternating generalized projection (AGP method. In particular, we are interested in addressing the problem of avoiding the so-called trap points, which may prevent an algorithm to obtain a feasible solution in two or more sets not all convex. Some strategies that allow us to reach the feasible solution are established and conjectured. Finally, we present simple numerical results that illustrate the efficiency of the iterative methods considered.

A technique for estimating 4D-CBCT using prior knowledge and limited-angle projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, You; Yin, Fang-Fang; Ren, Lei; Segars, W. Paul

2013-01-01

Purpose: To develop a technique to estimate onboard 4D-CBCT using prior information and limited-angle projections for potential 4D target verification of lung radiotherapy.Methods: Each phase of onboard 4D-CBCT is considered as a deformation from one selected phase (prior volume) of the planning 4D-CT. The deformation field maps (DFMs) are solved using a motion modeling and free-form deformation (MM-FD) technique. In the MM-FD technique, the DFMs are estimated using a motion model which is extracted from planning 4D-CT based on principal component analysis (PCA). The motion model parameters are optimized by matching the digitally reconstructed radiographs of the deformed volumes to the limited-angle onboard projections (data fidelity constraint). Afterward, the estimated DFMs are fine-tuned using a FD model based on data fidelity constraint and deformation energy minimization. The 4D digital extended-cardiac-torso phantom was used to evaluate the MM-FD technique. A lung patient with a 30 mm diameter lesion was simulated with various anatomical and respirational changes from planning 4D-CT to onboard volume, including changes of respiration amplitude, lesion size and lesion average-position, and phase shift between lesion and body respiratory cycle. The lesions were contoured in both the estimated and “ground-truth” onboard 4D-CBCT for comparison. 3D volume percentage-difference (VPD) and center-of-mass shift (COMS) were calculated to evaluate the estimation accuracy of three techniques: MM-FD, MM-only, and FD-only. Different onboard projection acquisition scenarios and projection noise levels were simulated to investigate their effects on the estimation accuracy.Results: For all simulated patient and projection acquisition scenarios, the mean VPD (±S.D.)/COMS (±S.D.) between lesions in prior images and “ground-truth” onboard images were 136.11% (±42.76%)/15.5 mm (±3.9 mm). Using orthogonal-view 15°-each scan angle, the mean VPD/COMS between the lesion

The USL NASA PC R and D project: General specifications of objectives

Science.gov (United States)

Dominick, Wayne D. (Editor)

1984-01-01

Given here are the general specifications of the objectives of the University of Southwestern Louisiana Data Base Management System (USL/DBMS) NASA PC R and D Project, a project initiated to address future R and D issues related to PC-based processing environments acquired pursuant to the NASA contract work; namely, the IBM PC/XT systems.

A General Model for Cost Estimation in an Exchange

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benzion Barlev

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Current Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP state that the cost of an asset acquired for cash is the fair value (FV of the amount surrendered, and that of an asset acquired in a non-monetary exchange is the FV of the asset surrendered or, if it is more “clearly evident,” the FV of the acquired asset. The measurement method prescribed for a non-monetary exchange ignores valuable information about the “less clearly evident” asset. Thus, we suggest that the FV in any exchange be measured by the weighted average of the exchanged assets’ FV estimations, where the weights are the inverse of the variances’ estimations. This alternative valuation process accounts for the uncertainty involved in estimating the FV of each of the asset in the exchange. The proposed method suits all types of exchanges: monetary and non-monetary. In a monetary transaction, the weighted average equals the cash paid because the variance of its FV is nil.

A recurrent neural network based on projection operator for extended general variational inequalities.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Qingshan; Cao, Jinde

2010-06-01

Based on the projection operator, a recurrent neural network is proposed for solving extended general variational inequalities (EGVIs). Sufficient conditions are provided to ensure the global convergence of the proposed neural network based on Lyapunov methods. Compared with the existing neural networks for variational inequalities, the proposed neural network is a modified version of the general projection neural network existing in the literature and capable of solving the EGVI problems. In addition, simulation results on numerical examples show the effectiveness and performance of the proposed neural network.

Disease prevalence estimations based on contact registrations in general practice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoogenveen, Rudolf; Westert, Gert; Dijkgraaf, Marcel; Schellevis, François; de Bakker, Dinny

2002-01-01

This paper describes how to estimate the prevalence of chronic diseases in a population using data from contact registrations in general practice with a limited time length. Instead of using only total numbers of observed patients adjusted for the length of the observation period, we propose the use

GENERAL ALGORITHMIC SCHEMA OF THE PROCESS OF THE CHILL AUXILIARIES PROJECTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. N. Chichko

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The general algorithmic diagram of systematization of the existing approaches to the process of projection is offered and the foundation of computer system of the chill mold arming construction is laid.

Estimating customer electricity savings from projects installed by the U.S. ESCO industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carvallo, Juan Pablo [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Larsen, Peter H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Goldman, Charles A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2014-11-25

The U.S. energy service company (ESCO) industry has a well-established track record of delivering substantial energy and dollar savings in the public and institutional facilities sector, typically through the use of energy savings performance contracts (ESPC) (Larsen et al. 2012; Goldman et al. 2005; Hopper et al. 2005, Stuart et al. 2013). This ~$6.4 billion industry, which is expected to grow significantly over the next five years, may play an important role in achieving demand-side energy efficiency under local/state/federal environmental policy goals. To date, there has been little or no research in the public domain to estimate electricity savings for the entire U.S. ESCO industry. Estimating these savings levels is a foundational step in order to determine total avoided greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from demand-side energy efficiency measures installed by U.S. ESCOs. We introduce a method to estimate the total amount of electricity saved by projects implemented by the U.S. ESCO industry using the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) /National Association of Energy Service Companies (NAESCO) database of projects and LBNL’s biennial industry survey. We report two metrics: incremental electricity savings and savings from ESCO projects that are active in a given year (e.g., 2012). Overall, we estimate that in 2012 active U.S. ESCO industry projects generated about 34 TWh of electricity savings—15 TWh of these electricity savings were for MUSH market customers who did not rely on utility customer-funded energy efficiency programs (see Figure 1). This analysis shows that almost two-thirds of 2012 electricity savings in municipal, local and state government facilities, universities/colleges, K-12 schools, and healthcare facilities (i.e., the so-called “MUSH” market) were not supported by a utility customer-funded energy efficiency program.

Development and Assessment of Service Learning Projects in General Biology

Science.gov (United States)

Felzien, Lisa; Salem, Laura

2008-01-01

Service learning involves providing service to the community while requiring students to meet learning goals in a specific course. A service learning project was implemented in a general biology course at Rockhurst University to involve students in promoting scientific education in conjunction with community partner educators. Students were…

The estimation of patients' views on organizational aspects of a general dental practice by general dental practitioners: a survey study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Truin Gert-Jan

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Considering the changes in dental healthcare, such as the increasing assertiveness of patients, the introduction of new dental professionals, and regulated competition, it becomes more important that general dental practitioners (GDPs take patients' views into account. The aim of the study was to compare patients' views on organizational aspects of general dental practices with those of GDPs and with GDPs' estimation of patients' views. Methods In a survey study, patients and GDPs provided their views on organizational aspects of a general dental practice. In a second, separate survey, GDPs were invited to estimate patients' views on 22 organizational aspects of a general dental practice. Results For 4 of the 22 aspects, patients and GDPs had the same views, and GDPs estimated patients' views reasonably well: 'Dutch-speaking GDP', 'guarantee on treatment', 'treatment by the same GDP', and 'reminder of routine oral examination'. For 2 aspects ('quality assessment' and 'accessibility for disabled patients' patients and GDPs had the same standards, although the GDPs underestimated the patients' standards. Patients had higher standards than GDPs for 7 aspects and lower standards than GDPs for 8 aspects. Conclusion On most aspects GDPs and patient have different views, except for social desirable aspects. Given the increasing assertiveness of patients, it is startling the GDP's estimated only half of the patients' views correctly. The findings of the study can assist GDPs in adapting their organizational services to better meet the preferences of their patients and to improve the communication towards patients.

General criteria for the project of nuclear fuel reprocessing plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1979-01-01

Recommendations are presented establishing the general criteria for the project of nuclear fuel reprocessing plants to be licensed according to the legislation in effect. They apply to all the plant's systems, components and structures which are important to operation safety and to the public's health and safety. (F.E.) [pt

Generalized equations for estimating DXA percent fat of diverse young women and men: The Tiger Study

Science.gov (United States)

Popular generalized equations for estimating percent body fat (BF%) developed with cross-sectional data are biased when applied to racially/ethnically diverse populations. We developed accurate anthropometric models to estimate dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry BF% (DXA-BF%) that can be generalized t...

Polarization Smoothing Generalized MUSIC Algorithm with Polarization Sensitive Array for Low Angle Estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Jun; Nie, Zaiping

2018-05-12

Direction of Arrival (DOA) estimation of low-altitude targets is difficult due to the multipath coherent interference from the ground reflection image of the targets, especially for very high frequency (VHF) radars, which have antennae that are severely restricted in terms of aperture and height. The polarization smoothing generalized multiple signal classification (MUSIC) algorithm, which combines polarization smoothing and generalized MUSIC algorithm for polarization sensitive arrays (PSAs), was proposed to solve this problem in this paper. Firstly, the polarization smoothing pre-processing was exploited to eliminate the coherence between the direct and the specular signals. Secondly, we constructed the generalized MUSIC algorithm for low angle estimation. Finally, based on the geometry information of the symmetry multipath model, the proposed algorithm was introduced to convert the two-dimensional searching into one-dimensional searching, thus reducing the computational burden. Numerical results were provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, showing that the proposed algorithm has significantly improved angle estimation performance in the low-angle area compared with the available methods, especially when the grazing angle is near zero.

Estimation and model selection of semiparametric multivariate survival functions under general censorship.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xiaohong; Fan, Yanqin; Pouzo, Demian; Ying, Zhiliang

2010-07-01

We study estimation and model selection of semiparametric models of multivariate survival functions for censored data, which are characterized by possibly misspecified parametric copulas and nonparametric marginal survivals. We obtain the consistency and root- n asymptotic normality of a two-step copula estimator to the pseudo-true copula parameter value according to KLIC, and provide a simple consistent estimator of its asymptotic variance, allowing for a first-step nonparametric estimation of the marginal survivals. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio statistic for comparing multiple semiparametric multivariate survival functions subject to copula misspecification and general censorship. An empirical application is provided.

Applying a Weighted Maximum Likelihood Latent Trait Estimator to the Generalized Partial Credit Model

Science.gov (United States)

Penfield, Randall D.; Bergeron, Jennifer M.

2005-01-01

This article applies a weighted maximum likelihood (WML) latent trait estimator to the generalized partial credit model (GPCM). The relevant equations required to obtain the WML estimator using the Newton-Raphson algorithm are presented, and a simulation study is described that compared the properties of the WML estimator to those of the maximum…

Wildlife Loss Estimates and Summary of Previous Mitigation Related to Hydroelectric Projects in Montana, Volume Three, Hungry Horse Project.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Casey, Daniel

1984-10-01

This assessment addresses the impacts to the wildlife populations and wildlife habitats due to the Hungry Horse Dam project on the South Fork of the Flathead River and previous mitigation of theses losses. In order to develop and focus mitigation efforts, it was first necessary to estimate wildlife and wildlife hatitat losses attributable to the construction and operation of the project. The purpose of this report was to document the best available information concerning the degree of impacts to target wildlife species. Indirect benefits to wildlife species not listed will be identified during the development of alternative mitigation measures. Wildlife species incurring positive impacts attributable to the project were identified.

National data analysis of general radiography projection method in medical imaging

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Jung Su; Seo, Deok Nam; Choi, In Seok [Dept. of Bio-Convergence Engineering, Korea University Graduate School, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); and others

2014-09-15

According to database of medical institutions of health insurance review and assessment service in 2013, 1,118 hospitals and clinics have department of radiology in Korea. And there are CT, fluoroscopic and general radiographic equipment in those hospitals. Above all, general radiographic equipment is the most commonly used in the radiology department. And most of the general radiographic equipment are changing the digital radiography system from the film-screen types of the radiography system nowadays. However, most of the digital radiography department are used the film-screen types of the radiography system. Therefore, in this study, we confirmed present conditions of technical items for general radiography used in hospital and research on general radiographic techniques in domestic medical institutions. We analyzed 26 radiography projection method including chest, skull, spine and pelvis which are generally used in the radiography department.

Correlation Dimension Estimation for Classification

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Jiřina, Marcel; Jiřina jr., M.

2006-01-01

Roč. 1, č. 3 (2006), s. 547-557 ISSN 1895-8648 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0567 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : correlation dimension * probability density estimation * classification * UCI MLR Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics

The great environmental restoration cost estimating shootout: A blind test of three DOE cost estimating groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klemen, Paul

1992-01-01

The cost of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Restoration (ER) Program has increased steadily over the last three years and, in the process, has drawn increasing scrutiny from Congress, the public, and government agencies such as the Office of Management and Budget and the General Accounting Office. Programmatic costs have been reviewed by many groups from within the DOE as well as from outside agencies. While cost may appear to be a universally applicable barometer of project conditions, it is actually a single dimensional manifestation of a complex set of conditions. As such, variations in cost estimates can be caused by a variety of underlying factors such as changes in scope, schedule, performing organization, economic conditions, or regulatory environment. This paper will examine the subject of cost estimates by evaluating three different cost estimates prepared for a single project including two estimates prepared by project proponents and another estimate prepared by a review team. The paper identifies the reasons for cost growth as measured by the different estimates and evaluates the ability of review estimates to measure the validity of costs. The comparative technique used to test the three cost estimates will identify the reasons for changes in the estimated cost, over time, and evaluate the ability of an independent review to correctly identify the reasons for cost growth and evaluate the reasonableness of the cost proposed by the project proponents. Recommendations are made for improved cost estimates and improved cost estimate reviews. Conclusions are reached regarding the differences in estimate results that can be attributed to differences in estimating techniques, the implications of these differences for decision makers, and circumstances that are unique to environmental cost estimating. (author)

Rational Choice of the Investment Project Using Interval Estimates of the Initial Parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kotsyuba Oleksiy S.

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The article is dedicated to the development of instruments to support decision-making on the problem of choosing the best investment project in a situation when initial quantitative parameters of the considered investment alternatives are described by interval estimates. In terms of managing the risk caused by interval uncertainty of the initial data, the study is limited to the component (aspect of risk measure as a degree of possibility of discrepancy between the resulting economic indicator (criterion and its normative level (the norm. An important hypothesis used as a basis for the proposed in the work formalization of the problem under consideration is the presence – for some or all of the projects from which the choice is made – of risk of poor rate of return in terms of net present (current value. Based upon relevant developments within the framework of the fuzzy-set methodology and interval analysis, there formulated a model for choosing an optimal investment project from the set of alternative options for the interval formulation of the problem. In this case it is assumed that indicators of economic attractiveness (performance of the compared directions of real investment are described either by interval estimates or possibility distribution functions. With the help of the estimated conditional example there implemented an approbation of the proposed model, which demonstrated its practical viability.

An efficient estimator for Gibbs random fields

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Janžura, Martin

2014-01-01

Roč. 50, č. 6 (2014), s. 883-895 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Gibbs random field * efficient estimator * empirical estimator Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.541, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/SI/janzura-0441325.pdf

General methods for modified projective synchronization of hyperchaotic systems with known or unknown parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Yang; Fang, Jian-an

2008-03-01

This work is concerned with the general methods for modified projective synchronization of hyperchaotic systems. A systematic method of active control is developed to synchronize two hyperchaotic systems with known parameters. Moreover, by combining the adaptive control and linear feedback methods, general sufficient conditions for the modified projective synchronization of identical or different chaotic systems with fully unknown or partially unknown parameters are presented. Meanwhile, the speed of parameters identification can be regulated by adjusting adaptive gain matrix. Numerical simulations verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

R&P: the multiple meaning of a research project in general practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Visentin, Giorgio

2005-08-01

Rischio e Prevenzione (Risk and Prevention) is a research project that is becoming the paradigm of the Italian research on General Practice. It started from a survey showing that treatment and control of cardiovascular risk is still far from optimal even in very high-risk patients. A group of general practitioners, coordinated by Istituto Mario Negri, wrote the protocol of the study with various proposals: Creating a research network. Building research infrastructure with good research capacity. Building a 'therapeutic alliance' with the patient while presenting the research, not only obtaining their signature for a 'bureaucratic' informed consent. Having the 'Collaborative Group' as the 'sponsor' of a research even if the funds are coming from Pharmaceutical Industry. It is a randomised controlled trial (RCT) carried out in primary care with the normal patient of our daily work, so transferability is very possible. The way to enroll the patients and the request to specify the reason for not joining the project of the outcome study are a kind of participatory research. The outcome study can become a model for implementing new strategy on cardiovascular risk. A specific questionnaire will enquire the different point of view of the patient and of the general practitioner/researcher. The result of this project will help us understand the phenomenon of the poor compliance of the high-risk patients. First results during enrollment allow some optimism.

Comparing avian and bat fatality rate estimates among North American wind energy projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smallwood, Shawn

2011-07-01

Full text: Wind energy development has expanded rapidly, and so have concerns over bird and bat impacts caused by wind turbines. To assess and compare impacts due to collisions, investigators use a common metric, fatalities/MW/year, but estimates of fatality rates have come from various wind turbine models, tower heights, environments, fatality search methods, and analytical methods. To improve comparability and asses large-scale impacts, I applied a common set of assumptions and methods to data in fatality monitoring reports to estimate fatality rates of birds and bats at 71 wind projects across North America (52 outside the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area, APWRA). The data were from wind turbines of 27 sizes (range 0.04-3.00 MW) and 28 tower heights (range 18.5-90 m), and searched at 40 periodic intervals (range 1-90 days) and out to 20 distances from turbines (range 30-126 m). Estimates spanned the years 1982 to 2010, and involved 1-1,345 turbines per unique combination of project, turbine size, tower height, and search methodology. I adjusted fatality rates for search detection rates averaged from 425 detection trials, and for scavenger removal rates based on 413 removal trials. I also adjusted fatality rates for turbine tower height and maximum search radius, based on logistic functions fit to cumulative counts of carcasses that were detected at 1-m distance intervals from the turbine. For each tower height, I estimated the distance at which cumulative carcass counts reached an asymptote, and for each project I calculated the proportion of fatalities likely not found due to the maximum search radius being short of the model-predicted distance asymptote. I used the same estimator in all cases. I estimated mean fatalities/MW/year among North American wind projects at 12.6 bats (80% CI: 8.1-17.1) and 11.1 birds (80% CI: 9.5-12.7), including 1.6 raptors (80% CI: 1.3-2.0), and excluding the Altamont Pass I estimated fatality rates at 17.2 bats (80% CI: 9

An Example of an Improvable Rao-Blackwell Improvement, Inefficient Maximum Likelihood Estimator, and Unbiased Generalized Bayes Estimator.

Science.gov (United States)

Galili, Tal; Meilijson, Isaac

2016-01-02

The Rao-Blackwell theorem offers a procedure for converting a crude unbiased estimator of a parameter θ into a "better" one, in fact unique and optimal if the improvement is based on a minimal sufficient statistic that is complete. In contrast, behind every minimal sufficient statistic that is not complete, there is an improvable Rao-Blackwell improvement. This is illustrated via a simple example based on the uniform distribution, in which a rather natural Rao-Blackwell improvement is uniformly improvable. Furthermore, in this example the maximum likelihood estimator is inefficient, and an unbiased generalized Bayes estimator performs exceptionally well. Counterexamples of this sort can be useful didactic tools for explaining the true nature of a methodology and possible consequences when some of the assumptions are violated. [Received December 2014. Revised September 2015.].

Emergency general surgery: definition and estimated burden of disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Shafi, Shahid; Aboutanos, Michel B; Agarwal, Suresh; Brown, Carlos V R; Crandall, Marie; Feliciano, David V; Guillamondegui, Oscar; Haider, Adil; Inaba, Kenji; Osler, Turner M; Ross, Steven; Rozycki, Grace S; Tominaga, Gail T

2013-04-01

Acute care surgery encompasses trauma, surgical critical care, and emergency general surgery (EGS). While the first two components are well defined, the scope of EGS practice remains unclear. This article describes the work of the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma to define EGS. A total of 621 unique International Classification of Diseases-9th Rev. (ICD-9) diagnosis codes were identified using billing data (calendar year 2011) from seven large academic medical centers that practice EGS. A modified Delphi methodology was used by the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma Committee on Severity Assessment and Patient Outcomes to review these codes and achieve consensus on the definition of primary EGS diagnosis codes. National Inpatient Sample data from 2009 were used to develop a national estimate of EGS burden of disease. Several unique ICD-9 codes were identified as primary EGS diagnoses. These encompass a wide spectrum of general surgery practice, including upper and lower gastrointestinal tract, hepatobiliary and pancreatic disease, soft tissue infections, and hernias. National Inpatient Sample estimates revealed over 4 million inpatient encounters nationally in 2009 for EGS diseases. This article provides the first list of ICD-9 diagnoses codes that define the scope of EGS based on current clinical practices. These findings have wide implications for EGS workforce training, access to care, and research.

Projection-based circular constrained state estimation and fusion over long-haul links

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Qiang [ORNL; Rao, Nageswara S. [ORNL

2017-07-01

In this paper, we consider a scenario where sensors are deployed over a large geographical area for tracking a target with circular nonlinear constraints on its motion dynamics. The sensor state estimates are sent over long-haul networks to a remote fusion center for fusion. We are interested in different ways to incorporate the constraints into the estimation and fusion process in the presence of communication loss. In particular, we consider closed-form projection-based solutions, including rules for fusing the estimates and for incorporating the constraints, which jointly can guarantee timely fusion often required in realtime systems. We test the performance of these methods in the long-haul tracking environment using a simple example.

Via generalized function projective synchronization in nonlinear Schrödinger equation for secure communication

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, L. W.; Du, J. G.; Yin, J. L.

2018-05-01

This paper proposes a novel secured communication scheme in a chaotic system by applying generalized function projective synchronization of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation. This phenomenal approach guarantees a secured and convenient communication. Our study applied the Melnikov theorem with an active control strategy to suppress chaos in the system. The transmitted information signal is modulated into the parameter of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation in the transmitter and it is assumed that the parameter of the receiver system is unknown. Based on the Lyapunov stability theory and the adaptive control technique, the controllers are designed to make two identical nonlinear Schrödinger equation with the unknown parameter asymptotically synchronized. The numerical simulation results of our study confirmed the validity, effectiveness and the feasibility of the proposed novel synchronization method and error estimate for a secure communication. The Chaos masking signals of the information communication scheme, further guaranteed a safer and secured information communicated via this approach.

Catalog of Investment Projects in Bulgaria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-10-15

This catalog includes information about 129 potential investment projects in Bulgaria and was developed by a team of experts from InvestBulgaria Agency in cooperation with municipalities and private companies. The document presents in brief general facts about the regions in Bulgaria. Projects are divided into the following categories: Tourism, Manufacturing, Urban Planning, Real Estate, Environment and renewable energy sources, Commerce, and Innovative and creative projects. The catalog provides detailed information about each project such as: status of the project, location, ownership, infrastructure, estimated value, contact information, etc.

Improving value of travel time savings estimation for more effective transportation project evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-01

Estimates of value of time (VOT) and value of travel time savings (VTTS) are critical elements in benefitcost : analyses of transportation projects and in developing congestion pricing policies. In addition, : differences in VTTS among various modes ...

Application of generalized estimating equations to a study in vitro of radiation sensitivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cologne, J.B.; Carter, R.L.; Fujita, Shoichiro; Ban, Sadayuki.

1993-08-01

We describes an application of the generalized estimating equation (GEE) method (Liang K-Y, Zeger SL: Longitudinal data analysis using generalized linear models. Biometrika 73:13-22, 1986) for regression analyses of correlated Poisson data. As an alternative to the use of an arbitrarily chosen working correlation matrix, we demonstrate the use of GEE with a reasonable model for the true covariance structure among repeated observations within individuals. We show that, under such a split-plot design with large clusters, the asymptotic relative efficiency of GEE with simple (independence or exchangeable) working correlation matrices is rather low. We also illustrate the use of GEE with an empirically estimated model for overdispersion in a large study of radiation sensitivity where cluster size is small and a simple working correlation structure is sufficient. We conclude by summarizing issues and needs for further work concerning efficiency of the GEE parameter estimates in practice. (author)

WE-EF-207-04: An Inter-Projection Sensor Fusion (IPSF) Approach to Estimate Missing Projection Signal in Synchronized Moving Grid (SMOG) System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, H; Kong, V; Jin, J; Ren, L; Zhang, Y; Giles, W

2015-01-01

Purpose: A synchronized moving grid (SMOG) has been proposed to reduce scatter and lag artifacts in cone beam computed tomography (CBCT). However, information is missing in each projection because certain areas are blocked by the grid. A previous solution to this issue is acquiring 2 complimentary projections at each position, which increases scanning time. This study reports our first Result using an inter-projection sensor fusion (IPSF) method to estimate missing projection in our prototype SMOG-based CBCT system. Methods: An in-house SMOG assembling with a 1:1 grid of 3 mm gap has been installed in a CBCT benchtop. The grid moves back and forth in a 3-mm amplitude and up-to 20-Hz frequency. A control program in LabView synchronizes the grid motion with the platform rotation and x-ray firing so that the grid patterns for any two neighboring projections are complimentary. A Catphan was scanned with 360 projections. After scatter correction, the IPSF algorithm was applied to estimate missing signal for each projection using the information from the 2 neighboring projections. Feldkamp-Davis-Kress (FDK) algorithm was applied to reconstruct CBCT images. The CBCTs were compared to those reconstructed using normal projections without applying the SMOG system. Results: The SMOG-IPSF method may reduce image dose by half due to the blocked radiation by the grid. The method almost completely removed scatter related artifacts, such as the cupping artifacts. The evaluation of line pair patterns in the CatPhan suggested that the spatial resolution degradation was minimal. Conclusion: The SMOG-IPSF is promising in reducing scatter artifacts and improving image quality while reducing radiation dose

WE-EF-207-04: An Inter-Projection Sensor Fusion (IPSF) Approach to Estimate Missing Projection Signal in Synchronized Moving Grid (SMOG) System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, H; Kong, V; Jin, J [Georgia Regents University Cancer Center, Augusta, GA (Georgia); Ren, L; Zhang, Y; Giles, W [Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States)

2015-06-15

Purpose: A synchronized moving grid (SMOG) has been proposed to reduce scatter and lag artifacts in cone beam computed tomography (CBCT). However, information is missing in each projection because certain areas are blocked by the grid. A previous solution to this issue is acquiring 2 complimentary projections at each position, which increases scanning time. This study reports our first Result using an inter-projection sensor fusion (IPSF) method to estimate missing projection in our prototype SMOG-based CBCT system. Methods: An in-house SMOG assembling with a 1:1 grid of 3 mm gap has been installed in a CBCT benchtop. The grid moves back and forth in a 3-mm amplitude and up-to 20-Hz frequency. A control program in LabView synchronizes the grid motion with the platform rotation and x-ray firing so that the grid patterns for any two neighboring projections are complimentary. A Catphan was scanned with 360 projections. After scatter correction, the IPSF algorithm was applied to estimate missing signal for each projection using the information from the 2 neighboring projections. Feldkamp-Davis-Kress (FDK) algorithm was applied to reconstruct CBCT images. The CBCTs were compared to those reconstructed using normal projections without applying the SMOG system. Results: The SMOG-IPSF method may reduce image dose by half due to the blocked radiation by the grid. The method almost completely removed scatter related artifacts, such as the cupping artifacts. The evaluation of line pair patterns in the CatPhan suggested that the spatial resolution degradation was minimal. Conclusion: The SMOG-IPSF is promising in reducing scatter artifacts and improving image quality while reducing radiation dose.

The international Chernobyl project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

This article summarizes the official report of the International Advisory Committee at the conference of the International Chernobyl Project held in Vienna, May 1991. More details will be found in the actual report, ''The International Chernobyl Project: An Overview'' (INI22:066284/5). Measurements and assessments carried out under the project provided general corroboration of the levels of surface cesium-137 contamination reported in the official maps. The project also concluded that the official procedures for estimating radiation doses to the population were scientifically sound, although they generally resulted in overestimates of two- to threefold. The project could find no marked increase in the incidence of leukemia or cancer, but reported absorbed thyroid doses in children might lead to a statistically detectable rise in the incidence of thyroid tumors. Significant non-radiation-related health disorders were found, and the accident had substantial psychological consequences in terms of anxiety and stress. The project concluded that the protective measures taken were too extreme, and that population relocation and foodstuff restrictions should have been less extensive

A Novel Method Based on Oblique Projection Technology for Mixed Sources Estimation

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Weijian Si

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Reducing the computational complexity of the near-field sources and far-field sources localization algorithms has been considered as a serious problem in the field of array signal processing. A novel algorithm caring for mixed sources location estimation based on oblique projection is proposed in this paper. The sources are estimated at two different stages and the sensor noise power is estimated and eliminated from the covariance which improve the accuracy of the estimation of mixed sources. Using the idea of compress, the range information of near-field sources is obtained by searching the partial area instead of the whole Fresnel area which can reduce the processing time. Compared with the traditional algorithms, the proposed algorithm has the lower computation complexity and has the ability to solve the two closed-spaced sources with high resolution and accuracy. The duplication of range estimation is also avoided. Finally, simulation results are provided to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.

Project management under uncertainty beyond beta: The generalized bicubic distribution

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José García Pérez

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The beta distribution has traditionally been employed in the PERT methodology and generally used for modeling bounded continuous random variables based on expert’s judgment. The impossibility of estimating four parameters from the three values provided by the expert when the beta distribution is assumed to be the underlying distribution has been widely debated. This paper presents the generalized bicubic distribution as a good alternative to the beta distribution since, when the variance depends on the mode, the generalized bicubic distribution approximates the kurtosis of the Gaussian distribution better than the beta distribution. In addition, this distribution presents good properties in the PERT methodology in relation to moderation and conservatism criteria. Two empirical applications are presented to demonstrate the adequateness of this new distribution.

Breaking projective chaos synchronization secure communication using filtering and generalized synchronization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez, G.; Li Shujun; Montoya, F.; Pastor, G.; Romera, M.

2005-01-01

This paper describes the security weaknesses of a recently proposed secure communication method based on chaotic masking using projective synchronization of two chaotic systems. We show that the system is insecure and how to break it in two different ways, by high-pass filtering and by generalized synchronization

Estimation of the Cartographic Projection and~its Application in Geoinformatics-habilitation thesis presentation

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Tomáš Bayer

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Modern techniques for the map analysis allow for the creation of full or partial geometric reconstruction of its content. The projection is described by the set of estimated constant values: transformed pole position, standard parallel latitude, longitude of the central meridian, and a constant parameter. Analogously the analyzed map is represented by its constant values: auxiliary sphere radius, origin shifts, and angle of rotation. Several new methods denoted as M6-M9 for the estimation of an unknown map projection and its parameters differing in the number of determined parameters, reliability, robustness, and convergence have been developed. However, their computational demands are similar. Instead of directly measuring the dissimilarity of two projections, the analyzed map in an unknown projection and the image of the sphere in the well-known (i.e., analyzed projection are compared. Several distance functions for the similarity measurements based on the location as well as shape similarity approaches are proposed. An unconstrained global optimization problem poorly scaled, with large residuals, for the vector of unknown parameters is solved by the hybrid BFGS method. To avoid a slower convergence rate for small residual problems, it has the ability to switch between first- and second-order methods. Such an analysis is beneficial and interesting for historic, old, or current maps without information about the projection. Its importance is primarily referred to refinement of spatial georeference for the medium- and small-scale maps, analysis of the knowledge about the former world, analysis of the incorrectly/inaccurately drawn regions, and appropriate cataloging of maps. The proposed algorithms have been implemented in the new version of the detectproj software.

Using Intelligent Techniques in Construction Project Cost Estimation: 10-Year Survey

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Abdelrahman Osman Elfaki

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Cost estimation is the most important preliminary process in any construction project. Therefore, construction cost estimation has the lion’s share of the research effort in construction management. In this paper, we have analysed and studied proposals for construction cost estimation for the last 10 years. To implement this survey, we have proposed and applied a methodology that consists of two parts. The first part concerns data collection, for which we have chosen special journals as sources for the surveyed proposals. The second part concerns the analysis of the proposals. To analyse each proposal, the following four questions have been set. Which intelligent technique is used? How have data been collected? How are the results validated? And which construction cost estimation factors have been used? From the results of this survey, two main contributions have been produced. The first contribution is the defining of the research gap in this area, which has not been fully covered by previous proposals of construction cost estimation. The second contribution of this survey is the proposal and highlighting of future directions for forthcoming proposals, aimed ultimately at finding the optimal construction cost estimation. Moreover, we consider the second part of our methodology as one of our contributions in this paper. This methodology has been proposed as a standard benchmark for construction cost estimation proposals.

Robust Parameter and Signal Estimation in Induction Motors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Børsting, H.

This thesis deals with theories and methods for robust parameter and signal estimation in induction motors. The project originates in industrial interests concerning sensor-less control of electrical drives. During the work, some general problems concerning estimation of signals and parameters...... in nonlinear systems, have been exposed. The main objectives of this project are: - analysis and application of theories and methods for robust estimation of parameters in a model structure, obtained from knowledge of the physics of the induction motor. - analysis and application of theories and methods...... for robust estimation of the rotor speed and driving torque of the induction motor based only on measurements of stator voltages and currents. Only contimuous-time models have been used, which means that physical related signals and parameters are estimated directly and not indirectly by some discrete...

Project Documentation as a Risk for Public Projects

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Vladěna Štěpánková

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose of the article: The paper presents the different methodologies used for creating documentation and focuses on public projects and their requirements for this documentation. Since documentation is also incorporated in the overall planning of the project and its duration is estimated using expert qualified estimate, can any change in this documentation lead to project delays, or increase its cost as a result of consuming administration, and therefore the documentation is seen as a risk, which may threaten the project as a public contract by which a company trying to achieve and obtains it, and generally any project. Methodology/methods: There are used methods of obtaining information in this paper. These are mainly structured interviews in combination with a brainstorming, furthermore also been used questionnaire for companies dealing with public procurement. As a data processing program was used MS Excel and basic statistical methods based on regression analysis. Scientific aim: The article deals with the construction market in the Czech Republic and examines the impact of changes in project documentation of public projects on their turnover. Findings: In this paper we summarize the advantages and disadvantages of having project documentation. In the case of public contracts and changes in legislation it is necessary to focus on creating documentation in advance, follow the new requirements and try to reach them in the shortest possible time. Conclusions: The paper concludes with recommendations on how to proceed, if these changes and how to reduce costs, which may cause the risk of documentation.

A bias correction for covariance estimators to improve inference with generalized estimating equations that use an unstructured correlation matrix.

Science.gov (United States)

Westgate, Philip M

2013-07-20

Generalized estimating equations (GEEs) are routinely used for the marginal analysis of correlated data. The efficiency of GEE depends on how closely the working covariance structure resembles the true structure, and therefore accurate modeling of the working correlation of the data is important. A popular approach is the use of an unstructured working correlation matrix, as it is not as restrictive as simpler structures such as exchangeable and AR-1 and thus can theoretically improve efficiency. However, because of the potential for having to estimate a large number of correlation parameters, variances of regression parameter estimates can be larger than theoretically expected when utilizing the unstructured working correlation matrix. Therefore, standard error estimates can be negatively biased. To account for this additional finite-sample variability, we derive a bias correction that can be applied to typical estimators of the covariance matrix of parameter estimates. Via simulation and in application to a longitudinal study, we show that our proposed correction improves standard error estimation and statistical inference. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Speculative resources of uranium. A review of International Uranium Resources Evaluation Project (IUREP) estimates 1982-1983

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

On a country by country basis the International Uranium Resources Evaluation Project (IUREP) estimates 1982-1983 are reviewed. Information provided includes exploration work, airborne survey, radiometric survey, gamma-ray spectrometric survey, estimate of speculative resources, uranium occurrences, uranium deposits, uranium mineralization, agreements for uranium exploration, feasibilities studies, geological classification of resources, proposed revised resource range, production estimate of uranium

Rock mass mechanical property estimations for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, M.; Hardy, M.P.; Bauer, S.J.

1993-06-01

Rock mass mechanical properties are important in the design of drifts and ramps. These properties are used in evaluations of the impacts of thermomechanical loading of potential host rock within the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project. Representative intact rock and joint mechanical properties were selected for welded and nonwelded tuffs from the currently available data sources. Rock mass qualities were then estimated using both the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (Q) and Geomechanics Rating (RMR) systems. Rock mass mechanical properties were developed based on estimates of rock mass quality, the current knowledge of intact properties, and fracture/joint characteristics. Empirical relationships developed to correlate the rock mass quality indices and the rock mass mechanical properties were then used to estimate the range of rock mass mechanical properties

Cost Estimating for Decommissioning of a Plutonium Facility--Lessons Learned From The Rocky Flats Building 771 Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stevens, J. L.; Titus, R.; Sanford, P. C.

2002-01-01

The Rocky Flats Closure Site is implementing an aggressive approach in an attempt to complete Site closure by 2006. The replanning effort to meet this goal required that the life-cycle decommissioning effort for the Site and for the major individual facilities be reexamined in detail. As part of the overall effort, the cost estimate for the Building 771 decommissioning project was revised to incorporate both actual cost data from a recently-completed similar project and detailed planning for all activities. This paper provides a brief overview of the replanning process and the original estimate, and then discusses the modifications to that estimate to reflect new data, methods, and planning rigor. It provides the new work breakdown structure and discusses the reasons for the final arrangement chosen. It follows with the process used to assign scope, cost, and schedule elements within the new structure, and development of the new code of accounts. Finally, it describes the project control methodology used to track the project, and provides lessons learned on cost tracking in the decommissioning environment

Religious affiliation at time of death - Global estimates and projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Skirbekk, Vegard; Todd, Megan; Stonawski, Marcin

2018-03-01

Religious affiliation influences societal practices regarding death and dying, including palliative care, religiously acceptable health service procedures, funeral rites and beliefs about an afterlife. We aimed to estimate and project religious affiliation at the time of death globally, as this information has been lacking. We compiled data on demographic information and religious affiliation from more than 2500 surveys, registers and censuses covering 198 nations/territories. We present estimates of religious affiliation at the time of death as of 2010, projections up to and including 2060, taking into account trends in mortality, religious conversion, intergenerational transmission of religion, differential fertility, and gross migration flows, by age and sex. We find that Christianity continues to be the most common religion at death, although its share will fall from 37% to 31% of global deaths between 2010 and 2060. The share of individuals identifying as Muslim at the time of death increases from 21% to 24%. The share of religiously unaffiliated will peak at 17% in 2035 followed by a slight decline thereafter. In specific regions, such as Europe, the unaffiliated share will continue to rises from 14% to 21% throughout the period. Religious affiliation at the time of death is changing globally, with distinct regional patterns. This could affect spatial variation in healthcare and social customs relating to death and dying.

Fisher classifier and its probability of error estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Chittineni, C. B.

1979-01-01

Computationally efficient expressions are derived for estimating the probability of error using the leave-one-out method. The optimal threshold for the classification of patterns projected onto Fisher's direction is derived. A simple generalization of the Fisher classifier to multiple classes is presented. Computational expressions are developed for estimating the probability of error of the multiclass Fisher classifier.

A guide to developing resource selection functions from telemetry data using generalized estimating equations and generalized linear mixed models

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Nicola Koper

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Resource selection functions (RSF are often developed using satellite (ARGOS or Global Positioning System (GPS telemetry datasets, which provide a large amount of highly correlated data. We discuss and compare the use of generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMM and generalized estimating equations (GEE for using this type of data to develop RSFs. GLMMs directly model differences among caribou, while GEEs depend on an adjustment of the standard error to compensate for correlation of data points within individuals. Empirical standard errors, rather than model-based standard errors, must be used with either GLMMs or GEEs when developing RSFs. There are several important differences between these approaches; in particular, GLMMs are best for producing parameter estimates that predict how management might influence individuals, while GEEs are best for predicting how management might influence populations. As the interpretation, value, and statistical significance of both types of parameter estimates differ, it is important that users select the appropriate analytical method. We also outline the use of k-fold cross validation to assess fit of these models. Both GLMMs and GEEs hold promise for developing RSFs as long as they are used appropriately.

Estimation of Truck Trips on Large-Scale Irrigation Project: A Combinatory Input-Output Commodity-Based Approach

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Ackchai Sirikijpanichkul

2015-01-01

Full Text Available For the agricultural-based countries, the requirement on transportation infrastructure should not only be limited to accommodate general traffic but also the transportation of crop and agricultural products during the harvest seasons. Most of the past researches focus on the development of truck trip estimation techniques for urban, statewide, or nationwide freight movement but neglect the importance of rural freight movement which contributes to pavement deterioration on rural roads especially during harvest seasons. Recently, the Thai Government initiated a plan to construct a network of reservoirs within the northeastern region, aiming at improving existing irrigation system particularly in the areas where a more effective irrigation system is needed. It is expected to bring in new opportunities on expanding the cultivation areas, increasing the economy of scale and enlarging the extent market of area. As a consequence, its effects on truck trip generation needed to be investigated to assure the service quality of related transportation infrastructure. This paper proposes a combinatory input-output commodity-based approach to estimate truck trips on rural highway infrastructure network. The large-scale irrigation project for the northeastern of Thailand is demonstrated as a case study.

Estimation of unknown nuclear masses by means of the generalized mass relations. Pt. 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popa, S.M.

1980-01-01

A survey of the estimations of the unknown nuclear masses by means of the generalized mass relations is presented. One discusses the new hypotheses supplementing the original general Garvey-Kelson scheme, reviewing the generalized mass relations and formulae, according to the present status of this new formalism. A critical discussions is given of the reliability of these new Garvey-Kelson type extrapolation procedures. (author)

Camera-pose estimation via projective Newton optimization on the manifold.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarkis, Michel; Diepold, Klaus

2012-04-01

Determining the pose of a moving camera is an important task in computer vision. In this paper, we derive a projective Newton algorithm on the manifold to refine the pose estimate of a camera. The main idea is to benefit from the fact that the 3-D rigid motion is described by the special Euclidean group, which is a Riemannian manifold. The latter is equipped with a tangent space defined by the corresponding Lie algebra. This enables us to compute the optimization direction, i.e., the gradient and the Hessian, at each iteration of the projective Newton scheme on the tangent space of the manifold. Then, the motion is updated by projecting back the variables on the manifold itself. We also derive another version of the algorithm that employs homeomorphic parameterization to the special Euclidean group. We test the algorithm on several simulated and real image data sets. Compared with the standard Newton minimization scheme, we are now able to obtain the full numerical formula of the Hessian with a 60% decrease in computational complexity. Compared with Levenberg-Marquardt, the results obtained are more accurate while having a rather similar complexity.

A New Pose Estimation Algorithm Using a Perspective-Ray-Based Scaled Orthographic Projection with Iteration.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pengfei Sun

Full Text Available Pose estimation aims at measuring the position and orientation of a calibrated camera using known image features. The pinhole model is the dominant camera model in this field. However, the imaging precision of this model is not accurate enough for an advanced pose estimation algorithm. In this paper, a new camera model, called incident ray tracking model, is introduced. More importantly, an advanced pose estimation algorithm based on the perspective ray in the new camera model, is proposed. The perspective ray, determined by two positioning points, is an abstract mathematical equivalent of the incident ray. In the proposed pose estimation algorithm, called perspective-ray-based scaled orthographic projection with iteration (PRSOI, an approximate ray-based projection is calculated by a linear system and refined by iteration. Experiments on the PRSOI have been conducted, and the results demonstrate that it is of high accuracy in the six degrees of freedom (DOF motion. And it outperforms three other state-of-the-art algorithms in terms of accuracy during the contrast experiment.

A multivariate family-based association test using generalized estimating equations : FBAT-GEE

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lange, C; Silverman, SK; Xu, [No Value; Weiss, ST; Laird, NM

In this paper we propose a multivariate extension of family-based association tests based on generalized estimating equations. The test can be applied to multiple phenotypes and to phenotypic data obtained in longitudinal studies without making any distributional assumptions for the phenotypic

[Doctoral thesis projects for medical students? Retrospective estimation of the fraction of successfully completed medical doctoral thesis projects at Witten/Herdecke University].

Science.gov (United States)

Scharfenberg, Janna; Schaper, Katharina; Krummenauer, Frank

2014-01-01

The German "Dr med" plays a specific role in doctoral thesis settings since students may start the underlying doctoral project during their studies at medical school. If a Medical Faculty principally encourages this approach, then it should support the students in performing the respective projects as efficiently as possible. Consequently, it must be ensured that students are able to implement and complete a doctoral project in parallel to their studies. As a characteristic efficiency feature of these "Dr med" initiatives, the proportion of doctoral projects successfully completed shortly after graduating from medical school is proposed and illustrated. The proposed characteristic can be estimated by the time period between the state examination (date of completion of the qualifying medical examination) and the doctoral examination. Completion of the doctoral project "during their medical studies" was then characterised by a doctoral examination no later than 12 months after the qualifying medical state examination. To illustrate the estimation and interpretation of this characteristic, it was retrospectively estimated on the basis of the full sample of all doctorates successfully completed between July 2009 and June 2012 at the Department of Human Medicine at the Faculty of Health of the University of Witten/Herdecke. During the period of investigation defined, a total number of 56 doctoral examinations were documented, 30 % of which were completed within 12 months after the qualifying medical state examination (95% confidence interval 19 to 44 %). The median duration between state and doctoral examination was 27 months. The proportion of doctoral projects completed parallel to the medical studies increased during the investigation period from 14 % in the first year (July 2009 till June 2010) to 40 % in the third year (July 2011 till June 2012). Only about a third of all "Dr med" projects at the Witten/Herdecke Faculty of Health were completed during or close to

Time of Arrival Estimation in Probability-Controlled Generalized CDMA Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hagit Messer

2007-11-01

Full Text Available In recent years, more and more wireless communications systems are required to provide also a positioning measurement. In code division multiple access (CDMA communication systems, the positioning accuracy is significantly degraded by the multiple access interference (MAI caused by other users in the system. This MAI is commonly managed by a power control mechanism, and yet, MAI has a major effect on positioning accuracy. Probability control is a recently introduced interference management mechanism. In this mechanism, a user with excess power chooses not to transmit some of its symbols. The information in the nontransmitted symbols is recovered by an error-correcting code (ECC, while all other users receive a more reliable data during these quiet periods. Previous research had shown that the implementation of a probability control mechanism can significantly reduce the MAI. In this paper, we show that probability control also improves the positioning accuracy. We focus on time-of-arrival (TOA based positioning systems. We analyze the TOA estimation performance in a generalized CDMA system, in which the probability control mechanism is employed, where the transmitted signal is noncontinuous with a symbol transmission probability smaller than 1. The accuracy of the TOA estimation is determined using appropriate modifications of the Cramer-Rao bound on the delay estimation. Keeping the average transmission power constant, we show that the TOA accuracy of each user does not depend on its transmission probability, while being a nondecreasing function of the transmission probability of any other user. Therefore, a generalized, noncontinuous CDMA system with a probability control mechanism can always achieve better positioning performance, for all users in the network, than a conventional, continuous, CDMA system.

32 CFR 37.560 - Must I be able to estimate project expenditures precisely in order to justify use of a fixed...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Must I be able to estimate project expenditures... I be able to estimate project expenditures precisely in order to justify use of a fixed-support TIA... purposes of this illustration, let that minimum recipient cost sharing be 40% of the total project costs...

Chronic disease prevalence from Italian administrative databases in the VALORE project: a validation through comparison of population estimates with general practice databases and national survey

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Administrative databases are widely available and have been extensively used to provide estimates of chronic disease prevalence for the purpose of surveillance of both geographical and temporal trends. There are, however, other sources of data available, such as medical records from primary care and national surveys. In this paper we compare disease prevalence estimates obtained from these three different data sources. Methods Data from general practitioners (GP) and administrative transactions for health services were collected from five Italian regions (Veneto, Emilia Romagna, Tuscany, Marche and Sicily) belonging to all the three macroareas of the country (North, Center, South). Crude prevalence estimates were calculated by data source and region for diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). For diabetes and COPD, prevalence estimates were also obtained from a national health survey. When necessary, estimates were adjusted for completeness of data ascertainment. Results Crude prevalence estimates of diabetes in administrative databases (range: from 4.8% to 7.1%) were lower than corresponding GP (6.2%-8.5%) and survey-based estimates (5.1%-7.5%). Geographical trends were similar in the three sources and estimates based on treatment were the same, while estimates adjusted for completeness of ascertainment (6.1%-8.8%) were slightly higher. For ischaemic heart disease administrative and GP data sources were fairly consistent, with prevalence ranging from 3.7% to 4.7% and from 3.3% to 4.9%, respectively. In the case of heart failure administrative estimates were consistently higher than GPs’ estimates in all five regions, the highest difference being 1.4% vs 1.1%. For COPD the estimates from administrative data, ranging from 3.1% to 5.2%, fell into the confidence interval of the Survey estimates in four regions, but failed to detect the higher prevalence in the most Southern region (4.0% in

A Framework of Combining Case-Based Reasoning with a Work Breakdown Structure for Estimating the Cost of Online Course Production Projects

Science.gov (United States)

He, Wu

2014-01-01

Currently, a work breakdown structure (WBS) approach is used as the most common cost estimation approach for online course production projects. To improve the practice of cost estimation, this paper proposes a novel framework to estimate the cost for online course production projects using a case-based reasoning (CBR) technique and a WBS. A…

Generalized dislocated lag function projective synchronization of fractional order chaotic systems with fully uncertain parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Cong; Zhang, Hong-li; Fan, Wen-hui

2017-01-01

In this paper, we propose a new method to improve the safety of secure communication. This method uses the generalized dislocated lag projective synchronization and function projective synchronization to form a new generalized dislocated lag function projective synchronization. Moreover, this paper takes the examples of fractional order Chen system and Lü system with uncertain parameters as illustration. As the parameters of the two systems are uncertain, the nonlinear controller and parameter update algorithms are designed based on the fractional stability theory and adaptive control method. Moreover, this synchronization form and method of control are applied to secure communication via chaotic masking modulation. Many information signals can be recovered and validated. Finally, simulations are used to show the validity and feasibility of the proposed scheme.

Developing a generalized allometric equation for aboveground biomass estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Q.; Balamuta, J. J.; Greenberg, J. A.; Li, B.; Man, A.; Xu, Z.

2015-12-01

A key potential uncertainty in estimating carbon stocks across multiple scales stems from the use of empirically calibrated allometric equations, which estimate aboveground biomass (AGB) from plant characteristics such as diameter at breast height (DBH) and/or height (H). The equations themselves contain significant and, at times, poorly characterized errors. Species-specific equations may be missing. Plant responses to their local biophysical environment may lead to spatially varying allometric relationships. The structural predictor may be difficult or impossible to measure accurately, particularly when derived from remote sensing data. All of these issues may lead to significant and spatially varying uncertainties in the estimation of AGB that are unexplored in the literature. We sought to quantify the errors in predicting AGB at the tree and plot level for vegetation plots in California. To accomplish this, we derived a generalized allometric equation (GAE) which we used to model the AGB on a full set of tree information such as DBH, H, taxonomy, and biophysical environment. The GAE was derived using published allometric equations in the GlobAllomeTree database. The equations were sparse in details about the error since authors provide the coefficient of determination (R2) and the sample size. A more realistic simulation of tree AGB should also contain the noise that was not captured by the allometric equation. We derived an empirically corrected variance estimate for the amount of noise to represent the errors in the real biomass. Also, we accounted for the hierarchical relationship between different species by treating each taxonomic level as a covariate nested within a higher taxonomic level (e.g. species contribution of each different covariate in estimating the AGB of trees. Lastly, we applied the GAE to an existing vegetation plot database - Forest Inventory and Analysis database - to derive per-tree and per-plot AGB estimations, their errors, and how

THE IMPROVEMENT OF ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE FOR EFFECTIVENESS OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS ON WASTE UTILIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V.V. Krivorotov

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The main tendencies of the waste products formation and recycling in the Russian Federation and in the Sverdlovsk region have been analyzed and the principal factors restraining the inclusion of anthropogenic formations into the economic circulation have been revealed in the work. A technical approach to the estimation of both ecological and economic integral efficiency of the recycling projects that, in autors, opinion, secures higher objectivity of this estimation as well as the validity of the made decisions on their realization.

European project for developing general guidelines for harmonising internal dose assessment procedures (IDEAS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andrasi, A.; Bailey, M.; Puncher, M.; Berkovski, V.; Eric Blanchardon, E.; Jourdain, J.-R.; Carlo-Maria Castellani, C.-M.; Doerfel, H.; Christian Hurtgen, Ch.; Le Guen, B.

2003-01-01

Several international intercomparison exercises on intake and internal dose assessments from monitoring data led to the conclusion that the results calculated by different participants varied significantly mainly because of the wide variety of methods and assumptions applied in the assessment procedure. Based on these experiences the need for harmonisation of the procedures has been formulated as an EU research project under the 5 th Framework Programme (2001-2005), with the aim of developing general guidelines for standardising assessments of intakes and internal doses. In the IDEAS project eight institutions from seven European countries are participating using inputs also from internal dosimetry professionals from across Europe to ensure broad consensus in the outcome of the project. The IDEAS project is explained

Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benjamin, Serge; Descures, Sylvain; Du Pasquier, Louis; Francois, Patrice; Buonarotti, Stefano; Mariotti, Giovanni; Tarakonov, Jurij; Daniska, Vladimir; Bergh, Niklas; Carroll, Simon; AaSTRoeM, Annika; Cato, Anna; De La Gardie, Fredrik; Haenggi, Hannes; Rodriguez, Jose; Laird, Alastair; Ridpath, Andy; La Guardia, Thomas; O'Sullivan, Patrick; ); Weber, Inge; )

2017-01-01

The cost estimation process of decommissioning nuclear facilities has continued to evolve in recent years, with a general trend towards demonstrating greater levels of detail in the estimate and more explicit consideration of uncertainties, the latter of which may have an impact on decommissioning project costs. The 2012 report on the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC) of Nuclear Installations, a joint recommendation by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the European Commission, proposes a standardised structure of cost items for decommissioning projects that can be used either directly for the production of cost estimates or for mapping of cost items for benchmarking purposes. The ISDC, however, provides only limited guidance on the treatment of uncertainty when preparing cost estimates. Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities, prepared jointly by the NEA and IAEA, is intended to complement the ISDC, assisting cost estimators and reviewers in systematically addressing uncertainties in decommissioning cost estimates. Based on experiences gained in participating countries and projects, the report describes how uncertainty and risks can be analysed and incorporated in decommissioning cost estimates, while presenting the outcomes in a transparent manner

Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, Robert; Gu, Guojun; Huffman, George

2012-01-01

A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a

Statistical analysis of latent generalized correlation matrix estimation in transelliptical distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Fang; Liu, Han

2017-02-01

Correlation matrix plays a key role in many multivariate methods (e.g., graphical model estimation and factor analysis). The current state-of-the-art in estimating large correlation matrices focuses on the use of Pearson's sample correlation matrix. Although Pearson's sample correlation matrix enjoys various good properties under Gaussian models, its not an effective estimator when facing heavy-tail distributions with possible outliers. As a robust alternative, Han and Liu (2013b) advocated the use of a transformed version of the Kendall's tau sample correlation matrix in estimating high dimensional latent generalized correlation matrix under the transelliptical distribution family (or elliptical copula). The transelliptical family assumes that after unspecified marginal monotone transformations, the data follow an elliptical distribution. In this paper, we study the theoretical properties of the Kendall's tau sample correlation matrix and its transformed version proposed in Han and Liu (2013b) for estimating the population Kendall's tau correlation matrix and the latent Pearson's correlation matrix under both spectral and restricted spectral norms. With regard to the spectral norm, we highlight the role of "effective rank" in quantifying the rate of convergence. With regard to the restricted spectral norm, we for the first time present a "sign subgaussian condition" which is sufficient to guarantee that the rank-based correlation matrix estimator attains the optimal rate of convergence. In both cases, we do not need any moment condition.

A Computer-Based Laboratory Project for the Study of Stimulus Generalization and Peak Shift

Science.gov (United States)

Derenne, Adam; Loshek, Eevett

2009-01-01

This paper describes materials designed for classroom projects on stimulus generalization and peak shift. A computer program (originally written in QuickBASIC) is used for data collection and a Microsoft Excel file with macros organizes the raw data on a spreadsheet and creates generalization gradients. The program is designed for use with human…

Software project management in a changing world

CERN Document Server

Ruhe, Günther

2014-01-01

By bringing together various current direc­tions, Software Project Management in a Changing World focuses on how people and organizations can make their processes more change-adaptive. The selected chapters closely correspond to the project management knowledge areas introduced by the Project Management Body of Knowledge, including its extension for managing software projects. The contributions are grouped into four parts, preceded by a general introduction. Part I "Fundamentals" provides in-depth insights into fundamental topics including resource allocation, cost estimation and risk manage

Projection-based Bayesian recursive estimation of ARX model with uniform innovations

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kárný, Miroslav; Pavelková, Lenka

2007-01-01

Roč. 56, 9/10 (2007), s. 646-655 ISSN 0167-6911 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET100750401; GA MŠk 2C06001; GA MDS 1F43A/003/120 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : ARX model * Bayesian recursive estimation * Uniform distribution Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 1.634, year: 2007 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sysconle.2007.03.005

EQPlanar: a maximum-likelihood method for accurate organ activity estimation from whole body planar projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, N; Frey, E C; He, B; Wahl, R L

2011-01-01

Optimizing targeted radionuclide therapy requires patient-specific estimation of organ doses. The organ doses are estimated from quantitative nuclear medicine imaging studies, many of which involve planar whole body scans. We have previously developed the quantitative planar (QPlanar) processing method and demonstrated its ability to provide more accurate activity estimates than conventional geometric-mean-based planar (CPlanar) processing methods using physical phantom and simulation studies. The QPlanar method uses the maximum likelihood-expectation maximization algorithm, 3D organ volume of interests (VOIs), and rigorous models of physical image degrading factors to estimate organ activities. However, the QPlanar method requires alignment between the 3D organ VOIs and the 2D planar projections and assumes uniform activity distribution in each VOI. This makes application to patients challenging. As a result, in this paper we propose an extended QPlanar (EQPlanar) method that provides independent-organ rigid registration and includes multiple background regions. We have validated this method using both Monte Carlo simulation and patient data. In the simulation study, we evaluated the precision and accuracy of the method in comparison to the original QPlanar method. For the patient studies, we compared organ activity estimates at 24 h after injection with those from conventional geometric mean-based planar quantification using a 24 h post-injection quantitative SPECT reconstruction as the gold standard. We also compared the goodness of fit of the measured and estimated projections obtained from the EQPlanar method to those from the original method at four other time points where gold standard data were not available. In the simulation study, more accurate activity estimates were provided by the EQPlanar method for all the organs at all the time points compared with the QPlanar method. Based on the patient data, we concluded that the EQPlanar method provided a

Estimation of the shape parameter of a generalized Pareto distribution based on a transformation to Pareto distributed variables

OpenAIRE

van Zyl, J. Martin

2012-01-01

Random variables of the generalized Pareto distribution, can be transformed to that of the Pareto distribution. Explicit expressions exist for the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the Pareto distribution. The performance of the estimation of the shape parameter of generalized Pareto distributed using transformed observations, based on the probability weighted method is tested. It was found to improve the performance of the probability weighted estimator and performs good wit...

Channel Selection and Feature Projection for Cognitive Load Estimation Using Ambulatory EEG

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tian Lan

2007-01-01

Full Text Available We present an ambulatory cognitive state classification system to assess the subject's mental load based on EEG measurements. The ambulatory cognitive state estimator is utilized in the context of a real-time augmented cognition (AugCog system that aims to enhance the cognitive performance of a human user through computer-mediated assistance based on assessments of cognitive states using physiological signals including, but not limited to, EEG. This paper focuses particularly on the offline channel selection and feature projection phases of the design and aims to present mutual-information-based techniques that use a simple sample estimator for this quantity. Analyses conducted on data collected from 3 subjects performing 2 tasks (n-back/Larson at 2 difficulty levels (low/high demonstrate that the proposed mutual-information-based dimensionality reduction scheme can achieve up to 94% cognitive load estimation accuracy.

Estimating asbestos abatement projects: Excellence or 'You said I missed what'?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frawley, R.F.

1992-01-01

Between 1900 and 1980, 30 million tons of asbestos were put in place. Because of the known health hazards and increasing federal, state, and local regulations, building owners are now facing the problem of asbestos abatement. There are 4 basic approaches to dealing with asbestos: (1) removal, (2) enclosure, (3) encapsulation, (4) deferred action in conjunction with a well defined operations and maintenance program. Once the full extent of the problem is determined, the decision can be made on which action or combination of actions to take and begin estimating the cost of the asbestos abatement project. There are no high-tech methods of asbestos removal. It is hot, wet, labor intensive work, the ways of removal are archaic. Removal means man power and man hours, labor is a big ticket item, and is an important factor in cost estimating. Become very familiar with the scope of the project and be sure to fully understand the depth of the asbestos problem. The products, supplies, tools, and in some cases, the machines are all disposable items. If one overlooks something or underestimates the time involved for removal, not only will one be way off on material, the labor costs will soar. Be very observant on walk throughs, notice everything. Be sure to get clear, accurate test results on material to be removed. Once all this is done, one can make a good take off with confidence. Finally, when in doubt always remember the 11th commandment of asbestos abatement cost-estimating 'If thou can't figure it out hor-ellipsis thou best figure it in.'

Threshold Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Akaike Information Criterion for Accurate Reliability Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Seunghoon; Lim, Woochul; Cho, Su-gil; Park, Sanghyun; Lee, Tae Hee [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Minuk; Choi, Jong-su; Hong, Sup [Korea Research Insitute of Ships and Ocean Engineering, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-02-15

In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF.

Threshold Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Akaike Information Criterion for Accurate Reliability Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Seunghoon; Lim, Woochul; Cho, Su-gil; Park, Sanghyun; Lee, Tae Hee; Lee, Minuk; Choi, Jong-su; Hong, Sup

2015-01-01

In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF

General presentation of projects mechanisms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

This guide provides recommendations and tools to implement projects mechanisms, in the framework of the kyoto protocol. It precises the place of the projects mechanisms in the display of tools involved in the climatic change fight policies, at the national as international scale. It recalls the main characteristics and the rules of utilization and illustrates the corresponding interests. (A.L.B.)

Application of the Generalized Nonlinear Complementary Relationship for Estimating Evaporation in North China

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, M.; Wu, B.

2017-12-01

As an important part of the coupled Eco-Hydrological processes, evaporation is the bond for exchange of energy and heat between the surface and the atmosphere. However, the estimation of evaporation remains a challenge compared with other main hydrological factors in water cycle. The complementary relationship which proposed by Bouchet (1963) has laid the foundation for various approaches to estimate evaporation from land surfaces, the essence of the principle is a relationship between three types of evaporation in the environment. It can simply implemented with routine meteorological data without the need for resistance parameters of the vegetation and bare land, which are difficult to observed and complicated to estimate in most surface flux models. On this basis the generalized nonlinear formulation was proposed by Brutsaert (2015). The daily evaporation can be estimated once the potential evaporation (Epo) and apparent potential evaporation (Epa) are known. The new formulation has a strong physical basis and can be expected to perform better under natural water stress conditions, nevertheless, the model has not been widely validated over different climate types and underlying surface patterns. In this study, we attempted to apply the generalized nonlinear complementary relationship in North China, three flux stations in North China are used for testing the universality and accuracy of this model against observed evaporation over different vegetation types, including Guantao Site, Miyun Site and Huailai Site. Guantao Site has double-cropping systems and crop rotations with summer maize and winter wheat; the other two sites are dominated by spring maize. Detailed measurements of meteorological factors at certain heights above ground surface from automatic weather stations offered necessary parameters for daily evaporation estimation. Using the Bowen ratio, the surface energy measured by the eddy covariance systems at the flux stations is adjusted on a daily scale

The Data-Constrained Generalized Maximum Entropy Estimator of the GLM: Asymptotic Theory and Inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicholas Scott Cardell

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Maximum entropy methods of parameter estimation are appealing because they impose no additional structure on the data, other than that explicitly assumed by the analyst. In this paper we prove that the data constrained GME estimator of the general linear model is consistent and asymptotically normal. The approach we take in establishing the asymptotic properties concomitantly identifies a new computationally efficient method for calculating GME estimates. Formulae are developed to compute asymptotic variances and to perform Wald, likelihood ratio, and Lagrangian multiplier statistical tests on model parameters. Monte Carlo simulations are provided to assess the performance of the GME estimator in both large and small sample situations. Furthermore, we extend our results to maximum cross-entropy estimators and indicate a variant of the GME estimator that is unbiased. Finally, we discuss the relationship of GME estimators to Bayesian estimators, pointing out the conditions under which an unbiased GME estimator would be efficient.

Carbon Footprint Estimation Tool for Residential Buildings for Non-Specialized Users: OERCO2 Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaime Solís-Guzmán

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Existing tools for environmental certification of buildings are failing in their ability to reach the general public and to create social awareness, since they require not only specialized knowledge regarding construction and energy sources, but also environmental knowledge. In this paper, an open-source online tool for the estimation of the carbon footprint of residential buildings by non-specialized users is presented as a product from the OERCO2 Erasmus + project. The internal calculations, data management and operation of this tool are extensively explained. The ten most common building typologies built in the last decade in Spain are analysed by using the OERCO2 tool, and the order of magnitude of the results is analysed by comparing them to the ranges determined by other authors. The OERCO2 tool proves itself to be reliable, with its results falling within the defined logical value ranges. Moreover, the major simplification of the interface allows non-specialized users to evaluate the sustainability of buildings. Further research is oriented towards its inclusion in other environmental certification tools and in Building Information Modeling (BIM environments.

Why Don't They Just Give Us Money? Project Cost Estimating and Cost Reporting

Science.gov (United States)

Comstock, Douglas A.; Van Wychen, Kristin; Zimmerman, Mary Beth

2015-01-01

Successful projects require an integrated approach to managing cost, schedule, and risk. This is especially true for complex, multi-year projects involving multiple organizations. To explore solutions and leverage valuable lessons learned, NASA's Virtual Project Management Challenge will kick off a three-part series examining some of the challenges faced by project and program managers when it comes to managing these important elements. In this first session of the series, we will look at cost management, with an emphasis on the critical roles of cost estimating and cost reporting. By taking a proactive approach to both of these activities, project managers can better control life cycle costs, maintain stakeholder confidence, and protect other current and future projects in the organization's portfolio. Speakers will be Doug Comstock, Director of NASA's Cost Analysis Division, Kristin Van Wychen, Senior Analyst in the GAO Acquisition and Sourcing Management Team, and Mary Beth Zimmerman, Branch Chief for NASA's Portfolio Analysis Branch, Strategic Investments Division. Moderator Ramien Pierre is from NASA's Academy for Program/Project and Engineering Leadership (APPEL).

Accounting for the inaccuracies in demand forecasts and construction cost estimations in transport project evaluation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

2014-01-01

For decades researchers have claimedthat particularly demand forecasts and construction cost estimations are assigned with/affected by a large degree of uncertainty. Massively, articles,research documents and reports agree that there exists a tendencytowards underestimating the costs...... in demand and cost estimations and hence the evaluation of transport infrastructure projects. Currently, research within this area is scarce and scattered with no commonagreement on how to embed and operationalise the huge amount of empiricaldata that exist within the frame of Optimism Bias. Therefore...... convertingdeterministic benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) into stochasticinterval results. A new data collection (2009–2013) forms the empirical basis for any risk simulation embeddedwithin the so-calledUP database (UNITE project database),revealing the inaccuracy of both construction costs and demandforecasts. Accordingly...

Global Dynamical Systems Involving Generalized -Projection Operators and Set-Valued Perturbation in Banach Spaces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yun-zhi Zou

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A new class of generalized dynamical systems involving generalized f-projection operators is introduced and studied in Banach spaces. By using the fixed-point theorem due to Nadler, the equilibrium points set of this class of generalized global dynamical systems is proved to be nonempty and closed under some suitable conditions. Moreover, the solutions set of the systems with set-valued perturbation is showed to be continuous with respect to the initial value.

Balancing uncertainty of context in ERP project estimation: an approach and a case study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Daneva, Maia

2010-01-01

The increasing demand for Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) solutions as well as the high rates of troubled ERP implementations and outright cancellations calls for developing effort estimation practices to systematically deal with uncertainties in ERP projects. This paper describes an approach -

Combined equations for estimating global solar radiation: Projection of radiation field over Japan under global warming conditions by statistical downscaling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

2008-01-01

For this study, we developed a new statistical model to estimate the daily accumulated global solar radiation on the earth's surface and used the model to generate a high-resolution climate change scenario of the radiation field in Japan. The statistical model mainly relies on precipitable water vapor calculated from air temperature and relative humidity on the surface to estimate seasonal changes in global solar radiation. On the other hand, to estimate daily radiation fluctuations, the model uses either a diurnal temperature range or relative humidity. The diurnal temperature range, calculated from the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, and relative humidity is a general output of most climate models, and pertinent observation data are comparatively easy to access. The statistical model performed well when estimating the monthly mean value, daily fluctuation statistics, and regional differences in the radiation field in Japan. To project the change in the radiation field for the years 2081 to 2100, we applied the statistical model to the climate change scenario of a high-resolution Regional Climate Model with a 20-km mesh size (RCM20) developed at the Meteorological Research Institute based on the Special Report for Emission Scenario (SRES)-A2. The projected change shows the following tendency: global solar radiation will increase in the warm season and decrease in the cool season in many areas of Japan, indicating that global warming may cause changes in the radiation field in Japan. The generated climate change scenario for the radiation field is linked to long-term and short-term changes in air temperature and relative humidity obtained from the RCM20 and, consequently, is expected to complement the RCM20 datasets for an impact assessment study in the agricultural sector

A generalized adjoint framework for sensitivity and global error estimation in time-dependent nuclear reactor simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stripling, H.F.; Anitescu, M.; Adams, M.L.

2013-01-01

variable. We apply the framework to two problems: a simple pendulum problem with known solution, which serves to verify our global error estimation procedure, and a 1D model of a traveling wave reactor. We then emphasize the utility of the framework by adding heat transfer physics to the reactor problem and showing that no reformulation of the adjoint framework is required for application to the new physics. We conclude that the abstraction of the adjoint approach into a general framework will facilitate multiphysics reactor modeling in large-scale software projects.

Comparing CMIP-3 and CMIP-5 climate projections on flooding estimation of Devils Lake of North Dakota, USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gehendra Kharel

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Background Water level fluctuations in endorheic lakes are highly susceptible to even slight changes in climate and land use. Devils Lake (DL in North Dakota, USA is an endorheic system that has undergone multi-decade flooding driven by changes in regional climate. Flooding mitigation strategies have centered on the release of lake water to a nearby river system through artificial outlets, resulting in legal challenges and environmental concerns related to water quality, downstream flooding, species migration, stakeholder opposition, and transboundary water conflicts between the US and Canada. Despite these drawbacks, running outlets would result in low overspill risks in the next 30 years. Methods In this study we evaluated the efficacy of this outlet-based mitigation strategy under scenarios based on the latest IPCC future climate projections. We used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP-5 weather patterns from 17 general circulation models (GCMs obtained under four representative concentration pathways (RCP scenarios and downscaled to the DL region. Then, we simulated the changes in lake water levels using the soil and water assessment tool based hydrological model of the watershed. We estimated the probability of future flood risks under those scenarios and compared those with previously estimated overspill risks under the CMIP-3 climate. Results The CMIP-5 ensemble projected a mean annual temperature of 5.78 °C and mean daily precipitation of 1.42 mm/day; both are higher than the existing CMIP-3 future estimates of 4.98 °C and 1.40 mm/day, respectively. The increased precipitation and higher temperature resulted in a significant increase of DL’s overspill risks: 24.4–47.1% without release from outlets and 3.5–14.4% even if the outlets are operated at their combined full 17 m3/s capacity. Discussion The modeled increases in overspill risks indicate a greater frequency of water releases through the artificial outlets. Future

Source localization using recursively applied and projected (RAP) MUSIC

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mosher, J.C. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Leahy, R.M. [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Signal and Image Processing Inst.

1998-03-01

A new method for source localization is described that is based on a modification of the well known multiple signal classification (MUSIC) algorithm. In classical MUSIC, the array manifold vector is projected onto an estimate of the signal subspace, but errors in the estimate can make location of multiple sources difficult. Recursively applied and projected (RAP) MUSIC uses each successively located source to form an intermediate array gain matrix, and projects both the array manifold and the signal subspace estimate into its orthogonal complement. The MUSIC projection is then performed in this reduced subspace. Using the metric of principal angles, the authors describe a general form of the RAP-MUSIC algorithm for the case of diversely polarized sources. Through a uniform linear array simulation, the authors demonstrate the improved Monte Carlo performance of RAP-MUSIC relative to MUSIC and two other sequential subspace methods, S and IES-MUSIC.

ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS AND RELIABILITY FUNCTION OF EXPONENTIATED EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION: BAYESIAN APPROACH UNDER GENERAL ENTROPY LOSS FUNCTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanjay Kumar Singh

2011-06-01

Full Text Available In this Paper we propose Bayes estimators of the parameters of Exponentiated Exponential distribution and Reliability functions under General Entropy loss function for Type II censored sample. The proposed estimators have been compared with the corresponding Bayes estimators obtained under Squared Error loss function and maximum likelihood estimators for their simulated risks (average loss over sample space.

Anthropogenic Heat Flux Estimation from Space: Results of the second phase of the URBANFLUXES Project

Science.gov (United States)

Chrysoulakis, Nektarios; Marconcini, Mattia; Gastellu-Etchegorry, Jean-Philippe; Grimmond, Sue; Feigenwinter, Christian; Lindberg, Fredrik; Del Frate, Fabio; Klostermann, Judith; Mitraka, Zina; Esch, Thomas; Landier, Lucas; Gabey, Andy; Parlow, Eberhard; Olofson, Frans

2017-04-01

The H2020-Space project URBANFLUXES (URBan ANthrpogenic heat FLUX from Earth observation Satellites) investigates the potential of Copernicus Sentinels to retrieve anthropogenic heat flux, as a key component of the Urban Energy Budget (UEB). URBANFLUXES advances the current knowledge of the impacts of UEB fluxes on urban heat island and consequently on energy consumption in cities. In URBANFLUXES, the anthropogenic heat flux is estimated as a residual of UEB. Therefore, the rest UEB components, namely, the net all-wave radiation, the net change in heat storage and the turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes are independently estimated from Earth Observation (EO), whereas the advection term is included in the error of the anthropogenic heat flux estimation from the UEB closure. The Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) model is employed to improve the estimation of the net all-wave radiation balance, whereas the Element Surface Temperature Method (ESTM), adjusted to satellite observations is used to improve the estimation the estimation of the net change in heat storage. Furthermore the estimation of the turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes is based on the Aerodynamic Resistance Method (ARM). Based on these outcomes, QF is estimated by regressing the sum of the turbulent heat fluxes versus the available energy. In-situ flux measurements are used to evaluate URBANFLUXES outcomes, whereas uncertainties are specified and analyzed. URBANFLUXES is expected to prepare the ground for further innovative exploitation of EO in scientific activities (climate variability studies at local and regional scales) and future and emerging applications (sustainable urban planning, mitigation technologies) to benefit climate change mitigation/adaptation. This study presents the results of the second phase of the project and detailed information on URBANFLUXES is available at: http://urbanfluxes.eu

Highway project cost estimating and management.

Science.gov (United States)

2009-02-01

"This report provides detailed information about the project objectives, deliverables, and findings. The project team : thoroughly reviewed the Montana Department of Transportation (MDT) structure, operations, and current procedures as : related to M...

General practitioners in Styria - who is willing to take part in research projects and why? : A survey by the Institute of General Practice and Health Services Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Poggenburg, Stephanie; Reinisch, Manuel; Höfler, Reinhild; Stigler, Florian; Avian, Alexander; Siebenhofer, Andrea

2017-11-01

Increasing recognition of general practice is reflected in the growing number of university institutes devoted to the subject and Health Services Research (HSR) is flourishing as a result. In May 2015 the Institute of General Practice and Evidence-based Health Services Research, Medical University of Graz, initiated a survey of Styrian GPs. The aim of the survey was to determine the willingness to take part in HSR projects, to collect sociodemographic data from GPs who were interested and to identify factors affecting participation in research projects. Of the 1015 GPs who received the questionnaire, 142 (14%) responded and 135 (13%) were included in the analysis. Overall 106 (10%) GPs indicated their willingness to take part in research projects. Factors inhibiting participation were lack of time, administrative workload, and lack of assistance. Overall, 10% of Styrian GPs were willing to participate in research projects. Knowledge about the circumstances under which family doctors are prepared to participate in HSR projects will help in the planning of future projects.

Development of Risk Uncertainty Factors from Historical NASA Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Amer, Tahani R.

2011-01-01

NASA is a good investment of federal funds and strives to provide the best value to the nation. NASA has consistently budgeted to unrealistic cost estimates, which are evident in the cost growth in many of its programs. In this investigation, NASA has been using available uncertainty factors from the Aerospace Corporation, Air Force, and Booz Allen Hamilton to develop projects risk posture. NASA has no insight into the developmental of these factors and, as demonstrated here, this can lead to unrealistic risks in many NASA Programs and projects (P/p). The primary contribution of this project is the development of NASA missions uncertainty factors, from actual historical NASA projects, to aid cost-estimating as well as for independent reviews which provide NASA senior management with information and analysis to determine the appropriate decision regarding P/p. In general terms, this research project advances programmatic analysis for NASA projects.

Mechanism design of reverse auction on concession period and generalized quality for PPP projects

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Xianjia WANG; Shiwei WU

2017-01-01

Reverse auctions of PPP projects usually require the bid to specify several characteristics of quality and the concession period to be fulfilled.This paper sets up a summary function of generalized quality,which contributes to reducing the dimensions of information.Thus,the multidimensional reverse auction model of a PPP project can be replaced by a two-dimensional direct mechanism based on the concession period and the generalized quality.Based on the theory of the revelation principle,the feasibility conditions,equilibrium solution and generalized quality requirements of such a mechanism,considering the influence of a variable investment structure are described.Moreover,two feasible multidimensional reverse auctions for implementing such a direct mechanism:Adjusting the scoring function and establishing a special reverse auction rule are built.The analysis shows that in these types of reverse auctions,optimal allocation can be achieved,the social benefit under the incomplete information will be maximized,and the private sector with the highest integrated management level wins the bid.In such a direct mechanism,the investment and financial pressure of the public sector can be reduced.

Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015-2020.

Science.gov (United States)

Vardanjani, Hossein Molavi; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Bagheri-Lankarani, Kamran; Hadipour, Maryam

2018-01-01

Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020. Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR) reports for 2003-2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited-time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs). In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions. Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051-18807), 20964 (15835-28268), and 14485 (11188-19293), respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150-134744) was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55-59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898) was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262-41638). A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors.

A Generalized Estimating Equations Approach to Model Heterogeneity and Time Dependence in Capture-Recapture Studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akanda Md. Abdus Salam

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities and time dependence are fundamentally important for estimating the closed animal population parameters in capture-recapture studies. A generalized estimating equations (GEE approach accounts for linear correlation among capture-recapture occasions, and individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities in a closed population capture-recapture individual heterogeneity and time variation model. The estimated capture probabilities are used to estimate animal population parameters. Two real data sets are used for illustrative purposes. A simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of the GEE estimator. A Quasi-Likelihood Information Criterion (QIC is applied for the selection of the best fitting model. This approach performs well when the estimated population parameters depend on the individual heterogeneity and the nature of linear correlation among capture-recapture occasions.

A generalization of the Friedrichs angle and the method of alternating projections

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Badea, C.; Grivaux, S.; Müller, Vladimír

2010-01-01

Roč. 348, 1-2 (2010), s. 53-56 ISSN 1631-073X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA201/06/0128 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : Hilbert space * Neumann -Halperin method Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.399, year: 2010 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1631073X09004002

Generalized projective synchronization of chaotic nonlinear gyros coupled with dead-zone input

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hung, M.-L.; Yan, J.-J.; Liao, T.-L.

2008-01-01

This paper addresses the synchronization problem of drive-response chaotic gyros coupled with dead-zone nonlinear input. Using the sliding mode control technique, a novel control law is established which guarantees generalized projective synchronization even when the dead-zone nonlinearity is present. Numerical simulations are presented to verify that the synchronization can be achieved by using the proposed synchronization scheme

Developing milk industry estimates for dose reconstruction projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, D.M.; Darwin, R.F.

1991-01-01

One of the most important contributors to radiation doses from hanford during the 1944-1947 period was radioactive iodine. Consumption of milk from cows that ate vegetation contaminated with iodine is likely the dominant pathway of human exposure. To estimate the doses people could have received from this pathway, it is necessary to reconstruct the amount of milk consumed by people living near Hanford, the source of the milk, and the type of feed that the milk cows ate. This task is challenging because the dairy industry has undergone radical changes since the end of World War 2, and records that document the impact of these changes on the study area are scarce. Similar problems are faced by researchers on most dose reconstruction efforts. The purpose of this work is to document and evaluate the methods used on the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project to reconstruct the milk industry and to present preliminary results

Estimating and Forecasting Generalized Fractional Long Memory Stochastic Volatility Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shelton Peiris

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This paper considers a flexible class of time series models generated by Gegenbauer polynomials incorporating the long memory in stochastic volatility (SV components in order to develop the General Long Memory SV (GLMSV model. We examine the corresponding statistical properties of this model, discuss the spectral likelihood estimation and investigate the finite sample properties via Monte Carlo experiments. We provide empirical evidence by applying the GLMSV model to three exchange rate return series and conjecture that the results of out-of-sample forecasts adequately confirm the use of GLMSV model in certain financial applications.

Generalized Projective Synchronization between Two Complex Networks with Time-Varying Coupling Delay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mei, Sun; Chang-Yan, Zeng; Li-Xin, Tian

2009-01-01

Generalized projective synchronization (GPS) between two complex networks with time-varying coupling delay is investigated. Based on the Lyapunov stability theory, a nonlinear controller and adaptive updated laws are designed. Feasibility of the proposed scheme is proven in theory. Moreover, two numerical examples are presented, using the energy resource system and Lü's system [Physica A 382 (2007) 672] as the nodes of the networks. GPS between two energy resource complex networks with time-varying coupling delay is achieved. This study can widen the application range of the generalized synchronization methods and will be instructive for the demand–supply of energy resource in some regions of China

Generalized Projective Synchronization between Two Complex Networks with Time-Varying Coupling Delay

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Mei; Zeng, Chang-Yan; Tian, Li-Xin

2009-01-01

Generalized projective synchronization (GPS) between two complex networks with time-varying coupling delay is investigated. Based on the Lyapunov stability theory, a nonlinear controller and adaptive updated laws are designed. Feasibility of the proposed scheme is proven in theory. Moreover, two numerical examples are presented, using the energy resource system and Lü's system [Physica A 382 (2007) 672] as the nodes of the networks. GPS between two energy resource complex networks with time-varying coupling delay is achieved. This study can widen the application range of the generalized synchronization methods and will be instructive for the demand-supply of energy resource in some regions of China.

On the K(a)hler-Ricci Flow on Projective Manifolds of General Type

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Gang TIAN; Zhou ZHANG

2006-01-01

This note concerns the global existence and convergence of the solution for K(a)hler-Ricci flow equation when the canonical class, Kx, is numerically effective and big.We clarify some known results regarding this flow on projective manifolds of general type and also show some new observations and refined results.

Projecting meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of income elasticities

OpenAIRE

Zhou, De; Yu, Xiaohua; Abler, David; Chen, Danhong

2014-01-01

There are many projections for China’s food demand, and the projection results differ significantly from each other. Different values for income elasticities could be a major reason. This study projects meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of the income elasticity estimates using a collection of 143 and 240 income elasticity estimates for cereals and meat products, respectively, from 36 primary studies. We find that income elasticities for most cereals (general cereals, ...

Implementing Generalized Additive Models to Estimate the Expected Value of Sample Information in a Microsimulation Model: Results of Three Case Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Rabideau, Dustin J; Pei, Pamela P; Walensky, Rochelle P; Zheng, Amy; Parker, Robert A

2018-02-01

The expected value of sample information (EVSI) can help prioritize research but its application is hampered by computational infeasibility, especially for complex models. We investigated an approach by Strong and colleagues to estimate EVSI by applying generalized additive models (GAM) to results generated from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). For 3 potential HIV prevention and treatment strategies, we estimated life expectancy and lifetime costs using the Cost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model, a complex patient-level microsimulation model of HIV progression. We fitted a GAM-a flexible regression model that estimates the functional form as part of the model fitting process-to the incremental net monetary benefits obtained from the CEPAC PSA. For each case study, we calculated the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) using both the conventional nested Monte Carlo approach and the GAM approach. EVSI was calculated using the GAM approach. For all 3 case studies, the GAM approach consistently gave similar estimates of EVPPI compared with the conventional approach. The EVSI behaved as expected: it increased and converged to EVPPI for larger sample sizes. For each case study, generating the PSA results for the GAM approach required 3 to 4 days on a shared cluster, after which EVPPI and EVSI across a range of sample sizes were evaluated in minutes. The conventional approach required approximately 5 weeks for the EVPPI calculation alone. Estimating EVSI using the GAM approach with results from a PSA dramatically reduced the time required to conduct a computationally intense project, which would otherwise have been impractical. Using the GAM approach, we can efficiently provide policy makers with EVSI estimates, even for complex patient-level microsimulation models.

Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback.

Science.gov (United States)

Rammig, Anja; Jupp, Tim; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tietjen, Britta; Heinke, Jens; Ostberg, Sebastian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Cramer, Wolfgang; Cox, Peter

2010-08-01

*Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. *We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL). *Our probabilistic assessment of biomass change suggests a likely shift towards increasing biomass compared with nonweighted results. Biomass estimates range between a gain of 6.2 and a loss of 2.7 kg carbon m(-2) for the Amazon region, depending on the strength of CO(2) fertilization. *The uncertainty associated with the long-term effect of CO(2) is much larger than that associated with precipitation change. This underlines the importance of reducing uncertainties in the direct effects of CO(2) on tropical ecosystems.

Modified generalized method of moments for a robust estimation of polytomous logistic model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoshan Wang

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE method, typically used for polytomous logistic regression, is prone to bias due to both misclassification in outcome and contamination in the design matrix. Hence, robust estimators are needed. In this study, we propose such a method for nominal response data with continuous covariates. A generalized method of weighted moments (GMWM approach is developed for dealing with contaminated polytomous response data. In this approach, distances are calculated based on individual sample moments. And Huber weights are applied to those observations with large distances. Mellow-type weights are also used to downplay leverage points. We describe theoretical properties of the proposed approach. Simulations suggest that the GMWM performs very well in correcting contamination-caused biases. An empirical application of the GMWM estimator on data from a survey demonstrates its usefulness.

A posteriori error estimates for axisymmetric and nonlinear problems

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Křížek, Michal; Němec, J.; Vejchodský, Tomáš

2001-01-01

Roč. 15, - (2001), s. 219-236 ISSN 1019-7168 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/01/1200; GA MŠk ME 148 Keywords : weigted Sobolev spaces%a posteriori error estimates%finite elements Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.886, year: 2001

Chaos control and generalized projective synchronization of heavy symmetric chaotic gyroscope systems via Gaussian radial basis adaptive variable structure control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farivar, Faezeh; Aliyari Shoorehdeli, Mahdi; Nekoui, Mohammad Ali; Teshnehlab, Mohammad

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► A systematic procedure for GPS of unknown heavy chaotic gyroscope systems. ► Proposed methods are based on Lyapunov stability theory. ► Without calculating Lyapunov exponents and Eigen values of the Jacobian matrix. ► Capable to extend for a variety of chaotic systems. ► Useful for practical applications in the future. - Abstract: This paper proposes the chaos control and the generalized projective synchronization methods for heavy symmetric gyroscope systems via Gaussian radial basis adaptive variable structure control. Because of the nonlinear terms of the gyroscope system, the system exhibits chaotic motions. Occasionally, the extreme sensitivity to initial states in a system operating in chaotic mode can be very destructive to the system because of unpredictable behavior. In order to improve the performance of a dynamic system or avoid the chaotic phenomena, it is necessary to control a chaotic system with a periodic motion beneficial for working with a particular condition. As chaotic signals are usually broadband and noise like, synchronized chaotic systems can be used as cipher generators for secure communication. This paper presents chaos synchronization of two identical chaotic motions of symmetric gyroscopes. In this paper, the switching surfaces are adopted to ensure the stability of the error dynamics in variable structure control. Using the neural variable structure control technique, control laws are established which guarantees the chaos control and the generalized projective synchronization of unknown gyroscope systems. In the neural variable structure control, Gaussian radial basis functions are utilized to on-line estimate the system dynamic functions. Also, the adaptation laws of the on-line estimator are derived in the sense of Lyapunov function. Thus, the unknown gyro systems can be guaranteed to be asymptotically stable. Also, the proposed method can achieve the control objectives. Numerical simulations are presented to

Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

Science.gov (United States)

Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

1976-01-01

A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

Estimating return levels from maxima of non-stationary random sequences using the Generalized PWM method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Ribereau

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Since the pioneering work of Landwehr et al. (1979, Hosking et al. (1985 and their collaborators, the Probability Weighted Moments (PWM method has been very popular, simple and efficient to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV distribution when modeling the distribution of maxima (e.g., annual maxima of precipitations in the Identically and Independently Distributed (IID context. When the IID assumption is not satisfied, a flexible alternative, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE approach offers an elegant way to handle non-stationarities by letting the GEV parameters to be time dependent. Despite its qualities, the MLE applied to the GEV distribution does not always provide accurate return level estimates, especially for small sample sizes or heavy tails. These drawbacks are particularly true in some non-stationary situations. To reduce these negative effects, we propose to extend the PWM method to a more general framework that enables us to model temporal covariates and provide accurate GEV-based return levels. Theoretical properties of our estimators are discussed. Small and moderate sample sizes simulations in a non-stationary context are analyzed and two brief applications to annual maxima of CO₂ and seasonal maxima of cumulated daily precipitations are presented.

A secure communication scheme based generalized function projective synchronization of a new 5D hyperchaotic system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Xiangjun; Fu, Zhengye; Kurths, Jürgen

2015-01-01

In this paper, a new five-dimensional hyperchaotic system is proposed based on the Lü hyperchaotic system. Some of its basic dynamical properties, such as equilibria, Lyapunov exponents, bifurcations and various attractors are investigated. Furthermore, a new secure communication scheme based on generalized function projective synchronization (GFPS) of this hyperchaotic system with an uncertain parameter is presented. The communication scheme is composed of the modulation, the chaotic receiver, the chaotic transmitter and the demodulation. The modulation mechanism is to modulate the message signal into the system parameter. Then the chaotic signals are sent to the receiver via a public channel. In the receiver end, by designing the controllers and the parameter update rule, GFPS between the transmitter and receiver systems is achieved and the unknown parameter is estimated simultaneously. The message signal can be finally recovered by the identified parameter and the corresponding demodulation method. There is no any limitation on the message size. Numerical simulations are performed to show the validity and feasibility of the presented secure communication scheme. (paper)

A new estimation technique of sovereign default risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehmet Ali Soytaş

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Using the fixed-point theorem, sovereign default models are solved by numerical value function iteration and calibration methods, which due to their computational constraints, greatly limits the models' quantitative performance and foregoes its country-specific quantitative projection ability. By applying the Hotz-Miller estimation technique (Hotz and Miller, 1993- often used in applied microeconometrics literature- to dynamic general equilibrium models of sovereign default, one can estimate the ex-ante default probability of economies, given the structural parameter values obtained from country-specific business-cycle statistics and relevant literature. Thus, with this technique we offer an alternative solution method to dynamic general equilibrium models of sovereign default to improve upon their quantitative inference ability.

Distributed Dynamic State Estimator, Generator Parameter Estimation and Stability Monitoring Demonstration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meliopoulos, Sakis [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States); Cokkinides, George [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States); Fardanesh, Bruce [New York Power Authority, NY (United States); Hedrington, Clinton [U.S. Virgin Islands Water and Power Authority (WAPA), St. Croix (U.S. Virgin Islands)

2013-12-31

This is the final report for this project that was performed in the period: October1, 2009 to June 30, 2013. In this project, a fully distributed high-fidelity dynamic state estimator (DSE) that continuously tracks the real time dynamic model of a wide area system with update rates better than 60 times per second is achieved. The proposed technology is based on GPS-synchronized measurements but also utilizes data from all available Intelligent Electronic Devices in the system (numerical relays, digital fault recorders, digital meters, etc.). The distributed state estimator provides the real time model of the system not only the voltage phasors. The proposed system provides the infrastructure for a variety of applications and two very important applications (a) a high fidelity generating unit parameters estimation and (b) an energy function based transient stability monitoring of a wide area electric power system with predictive capability. Also the dynamic distributed state estimation results are stored (the storage scheme includes data and coincidental model) enabling an automatic reconstruction and “play back” of a system wide disturbance. This approach enables complete play back capability with fidelity equal to that of real time with the advantage of “playing back” at a user selected speed. The proposed technologies were developed and tested in the lab during the first 18 months of the project and then demonstrated on two actual systems, the USVI Water and Power Administration system and the New York Power Authority’s Blenheim-Gilboa pumped hydro plant in the last 18 months of the project. The four main thrusts of this project, mentioned above, are extremely important to the industry. The DSE with the achieved update rates (more than 60 times per second) provides a superior solution to the “grid visibility” question. The generator parameter identification method fills an important and practical need of the industry. The “energy function” based

Generalized Hurst exponent estimates differentiate EEG signals of healthy and epileptic patients

Science.gov (United States)

Lahmiri, Salim

2018-01-01

The aim of our current study is to check whether multifractal patterns of the electroencephalographic (EEG) signals of normal and epileptic patients are statistically similar or different. In this regard, the generalized Hurst exponent (GHE) method is used for robust estimation of the multifractals in each type of EEG signals, and three powerful statistical tests are performed to check existence of differences between estimated GHEs from healthy control subjects and epileptic patients. The obtained results show that multifractals exist in both types of EEG signals. Particularly, it was found that the degree of fractal is more pronounced in short variations of normal EEG signals than in short variations of EEG signals with seizure free intervals. In contrary, it is more pronounced in long variations of EEG signals with seizure free intervals than in normal EEG signals. Importantly, both parametric and nonparametric statistical tests show strong evidence that estimated GHEs of normal EEG signals are statistically and significantly different from those with seizure free intervals. Therefore, GHEs can be efficiently used to distinguish between healthy and patients suffering from epilepsy.

Adaptive generalized matrix projective lag synchronization between two different complex networks with non-identical nodes and different dimensions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dai Hao; Jia Li-Xin; Zhang Yan-Bin

2012-01-01

The adaptive generalized matrix projective lag synchronization between two different complex networks with non-identical nodes and different dimensions is investigated in this paper. Based on Lyapunov stability theory and Barbalat's lemma, generalized matrix projective lag synchronization criteria are derived by using the adaptive control method. Furthermore, each network can be undirected or directed, connected or disconnected, and nodes in either network may have identical or different dynamics. The proposed strategy is applicable to almost all kinds of complex networks. In addition, numerical simulation results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of this method, showing that the synchronization speed is sensitively influenced by the adaptive law strength, the network size, and the network topological structure. (general)

Abelian projection on the torus for general gauge groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ford, C.; Tok, T.; Wipf, A.

1999-01-01

We consider Yang-Mills theories with general gauge groups G and twists of the four-torus. We find consistent boundary conditions for gauge fields in all instanton sectors. An extended abelian projection with respect to the Polyakov loop operator is presented, where A 0 is independent of time and in the Cartan subalgebra. Fundamental domains for the gauge fixed A 0 are constructed for arbitrary gauge groups. In the sectors with non-vanishing instanton number such gauge fixings are necessarily singular. The singularities can be restricted to Dirac strings joining magnetically charged defects. The magnetic charges of these monopoles take their values in the co-root lattice of the gauge group. We relate the magnetic charges of the defects and the windings of suitable Higgs fields about these defects to the instanton number

Transportation Infrastructure: Managing the Costs of Large-Dollar Highway Projects

Science.gov (United States)

1997-02-01

The General Accounting Office (GAO) was requested to assess the effectiveness of the Federal Highway Administration's (FHWA's) oversight of the costs of large-dollar highway and bridge projects (those with a total estimated cost of over $100 million)...

On the generalization of linear least mean squares estimation to quantum systems with non-commutative outputs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amini, Nina H. [Stanford University, Edward L. Ginzton Laboratory, Stanford, CA (United States); CNRS, Laboratoire des Signaux et Systemes (L2S) CentraleSupelec, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Miao, Zibo; Pan, Yu; James, Matthew R. [Australian National University, ARC Centre for Quantum Computation and Communication Technology, Research School of Engineering, Canberra, ACT (Australia); Mabuchi, Hideo [Stanford University, Edward L. Ginzton Laboratory, Stanford, CA (United States)

2015-12-15

The purpose of this paper is to study the problem of generalizing the Belavkin-Kalman filter to the case where the classical measurement signal is replaced by a fully quantum non-commutative output signal. We formulate a least mean squares estimation problem that involves a non-commutative system as the filter processing the non-commutative output signal. We solve this estimation problem within the framework of non-commutative probability. Also, we find the necessary and sufficient conditions which make these non-commutative estimators physically realizable. These conditions are restrictive in practice. (orig.)

Improving incidence estimation in practice-based sentinel surveillance networks using spatial variation in general practitioner density

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cécile Souty

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In surveillance networks based on voluntary participation of health-care professionals, there is little choice regarding the selection of participants’ characteristics. External information about participants, for example local physician density, can help reduce bias in incidence estimates reported by the surveillance network. Methods There is an inverse association between the number of reported influenza-like illness (ILI cases and local general practitioners (GP density. We formulated and compared estimates of ILI incidence using this relationship. To compare estimates, we simulated epidemics using a spatially explicit disease model and their observation by surveillance networks with different characteristics: random, maximum coverage, largest cities, etc. Results In the French practice-based surveillance network – the “Sentinelles” network – GPs reported 3.6% (95% CI [3;4] less ILI cases as local GP density increased by 1 GP per 10,000 inhabitants. Incidence estimates varied markedly depending on scenarios for participant selection in surveillance. Yet accounting for change in GP density for participants allowed reducing bias. Applied on data from the Sentinelles network, changes in overall incidence ranged between 1.6 and 9.9%. Conclusions Local GP density is a simple measure that provides a way to reduce bias in estimating disease incidence in general practice. It can contribute to improving disease monitoring when it is not possible to choose the characteristics of participants.

Generalized estimators of avian abundance from count survey data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Royle, J. A.

2004-01-01

Full Text Available I consider modeling avian abundance from spatially referenced bird count data collected according to common protocols such as capture-recapture, multiple observer, removal sampling and simple point counts. Small sample sizes and large numbers of parameters have motivated many analyses that disregard the spatial indexing of the data, and thus do not provide an adequate treatment of spatial structure. I describe a general framework for modeling spatially replicated data that regards local abundance as a random process, motivated by the view that the set of spatially referenced local populations (at the sample locations constitute a metapopulation. Under this view, attention can be focused on developing a model for the variation in local abundance independent of the sampling protocol being considered. The metapopulation model structure, when combined with the data generating model, define a simple hierarchical model that can be analyzed using conventional methods. The proposed modeling framework is completely general in the sense that broad classes of metapopulation models may be considered, site level covariates on detection and abundance may be considered, and estimates of abundance and related quantities may be obtained for sample locations, groups of locations, unsampled locations. Two brief examples are given, the first involving simple point counts, and the second based on temporary removal counts. Extension of these models to open systems is briefly discussed.

Implicit Knowledge of General Upper Secondary School in a Bridge-building Project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Annette; Andreasen, Karen Egedal

2016-01-01

Bridge-building activities are practiced widely in the education systems of Europe. They are meant to bridge transitions between lower and upper secondary school and form a mandatory part of the youth guidance system in Denmark. By giving pupils the opportunity to experience the different...... educational context of upper secondary school, bridge-building activities are meant to facilitate their decision-making on educational paths, but also to attract more and new groups of pupils. However, the premises of the inherent differences of educational contexts and of pupils’ lacking knowledge of upper...... secondary education can be questioned. In this ethnographic case study of a bridge-building project in a rural area in Denmark, we analyse the implicit knowledge of the general upper secondary school, as it is practiced in a bridge-building project, and how it is experienced by the pupils on the background...

A Note on the Large Sample Properties of Estimators Based on Generalized Linear Models for Correlated Pseudo-observations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, Martin; Martinussen, Torben

2016-01-01

Pseudo-values have proven very useful in censored data analysis in complex settings such as multi-state models. It was originally suggested by Andersen et al., Biometrika, 90, 2003, 335 who also suggested to estimate standard errors using classical generalized estimating equation results. These r......Pseudo-values have proven very useful in censored data analysis in complex settings such as multi-state models. It was originally suggested by Andersen et al., Biometrika, 90, 2003, 335 who also suggested to estimate standard errors using classical generalized estimating equation results....... These results were studied more formally in Graw et al., Lifetime Data Anal., 15, 2009, 241 that derived some key results based on a second-order von Mises expansion. However, results concerning large sample properties of estimates based on regression models for pseudo-values still seem unclear. In this paper......, we study these large sample properties in the simple setting of survival probabilities and show that the estimating function can be written as a U-statistic of second order giving rise to an additional term that does not vanish asymptotically. We further show that previously advocated standard error...

Constructing Predictive Estimates for Worker Exposure to Radioactivity During Decommissioning: Analysis of Completed Decommissioning Projects - Master Thesis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dettmers, Dana Lee; Eide, Steven Arvid

2002-10-01

An analysis of completed decommissioning projects is used to construct predictive estimates for worker exposure to radioactivity during decommissioning activities. The preferred organizational method for the completed decommissioning project data is to divide the data by type of facility, whether decommissioning was performed on part of the facility or the complete facility, and the level of radiation within the facility prior to decommissioning (low, medium, or high). Additional data analysis shows that there is not a downward trend in worker exposure data over time. Also, the use of a standard estimate for worker exposure to radioactivity may be a best estimate for low complete storage, high partial storage, and medium reactor facilities; a conservative estimate for some low level of facility radiation facilities (reactor complete, research complete, pits/ponds, other), medium partial process facilities, and high complete research facilities; and an underestimate for the remaining facilities. Limited data are available to compare different decommissioning alternatives, so the available data are reported and no conclusions can been drawn. It is recommended that all DOE sites and the NRC use a similar method to document worker hours, worker exposure to radiation (person-rem), and standard industrial accidents, injuries, and deaths for all completed decommissioning activities.

An Introduction to Generalized Estimating Equations and an Application to Assess Selectivity Effects in a Longitudinal Study on Very Old Individuals

Science.gov (United States)

Ghisletta, Paolo; Spini, Dario

2004-01-01

Correlated data are very common in the social sciences. Most common applications include longitudinal and hierarchically organized (or clustered) data. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) are a convenient and general approach to the analysis of several kinds of correlated data. The main advantage of GEE resides in the unbiased estimation of…

Fast Conceptual Cost Estimating of Aerospace Projects Using Historical Information

Science.gov (United States)

Butts, Glenn

2007-01-01

Accurate estimates can be created in less than a minute by applying powerful techniques and algorithms to create an Excel-based parametric cost model. In five easy steps you will learn how to normalize your company 's historical cost data to the new project parameters. This paper provides a complete, easy-to-understand, step by step how-to guide. Such a guide does not seem to currently exist. Over 2,000 hours of research, data collection, and trial and error, and thousands of lines of Excel Visual Basic Application (VBA) code were invested in developing these methods. While VBA is not required to use this information, it increases the power and aesthetics of the model. Implementing all of the steps described, while not required, will increase the accuracy of the results.

Multivariate phase type distributions - Applications and parameter estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Meisch, David

The best known univariate probability distribution is the normal distribution. It is used throughout the literature in a broad field of applications. In cases where it is not sensible to use the normal distribution alternative distributions are at hand and well understood, many of these belonging...... and statistical inference, is the multivariate normal distribution. Unfortunately only little is known about the general class of multivariate phase type distribution. Considering the results concerning parameter estimation and inference theory of univariate phase type distributions, the class of multivariate...... projects and depend on reliable cost estimates. The Successive Principle is a group analysis method primarily used for analyzing medium to large projects in relation to cost or duration. We believe that the mathematical modeling used in the Successive Principle can be improved. We suggested a novel...

Modified Dual Second-order Generalized Integrator FLL for Frequency Estimation Under Various Grid Abnormalities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kalpeshkumar Rohitbhai Patil

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Proper synchronization of Distributed Generator with grid and its performance in grid-connected mode relies on fast and precise estimation of phase and amplitude of the fundamental component of grid voltage. However, the accuracy with which the frequency is estimated is dependent on the type of grid voltage abnormalities and structure of the phase-locked loop or frequency locked loop control schemes. Among various control schemes, second-order generalized integrator based frequency- locked loop (SOGI-FLL is reported to have the most promising performance. It tracks the frequency of grid voltage accurately even when grid voltage is characterized by sag, swell, harmonics, imbalance, frequency variations etc. However, estimated frequency contains low frequency oscillations in case when sensed grid-voltage has a dc offset. This paper presents a modified dual second-order generalized integrator frequency-locked loop (MDSOGI-FLL for three-phase systems to cope with the non-ideal three-phase grid voltages having all type of abnormalities including the dc offset. The complexity in control scheme is almost the same as the standard dual SOGI-FLL, but the performance is enhanced. Simulation results show that the proposed MDSOGI-FLL is effective under all abnormal grid voltage conditions. The results are validated experimentally to justify the superior performance of MDSOGI-FLL under adverse conditions.

Estimation of Externalities for Juragua Nuclear Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mora, H. R.; Carbonell, L. T.

2002-01-01

Estimation of externalities allows taking into account environmental impacts due to any activity in total costs calculation. In the present work, the external costs of electricity generation from nuclear energy were calculated considering three scenarios: normal operation (routine releases), accident situation and solid waste disposal. A comparison between these results and those obtained for electricity generation from fossil fuels was made. IAEA proposals of Simplified methodologies were used for externality calculations. The Juragua project was selected as a study case; it is based in two energetic blocks both PWR, VVER 440/318 type with a plant capacity of 417 MWe each. Four impact ways were considered for all scenarios: (1) Inhalation of radionuclides in the air, (2) External irradiation from radionuclides immersed in clouds, (3) External irradiation from deposited radionuclides and (4) Ingestion of radionuclides in agricultural products. Besides, two impact categories (local and regional) for all scenarios were considered. The total cost of externalities was 0.01425 c/kWh, value smaller than the one obtained for electricity generation from fossil fuel (0.256 c/kWh). For the normal operation scenario, the external cost calculated was 0.00112 c/kWh, for accident situation 0.01103 c/kWh, and for the solid wastes management scenario 0.0021 c/kWh. The high value obtained for solid waste disposal scenario is due to repository placement features. (author)

Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015–2020

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hossein Molavi Vardanjani

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020. Materials and Methods: Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR reports for 2003–2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited–time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs. In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions. Results: Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051–18807, 20964 (15835–28268, and 14485 (11188–19293, respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150–134744 was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55–59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898 was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262–41638. Conclusion: A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors.

Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015–2020

Science.gov (United States)

Vardanjani, Hossein Molavi; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Bagheri-Lankarani, Kamran; Hadipour, Maryam

2018-01-01

Background: Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020. Materials and Methods: Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR) reports for 2003–2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited–time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs). In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions. Results: Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051–18807), 20964 (15835–28268), and 14485 (11188–19293), respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150–134744) was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55–59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898) was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262–41638). Conclusion: A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors. PMID:29456991

Estimating morbidity rates from electronic medical records in general practice: evaluation of a grouping system.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Biermans, M.C.J.; Verheij, R.A.; Bakker, D.H. de; Zielhuis, G.A.; Vries Robbé, P.F. de

2008-01-01

Objectives: In this study, we evaluated the internal validity of EPICON, an application for grouping ICPCcoded diagnoses from electronic medical records into episodes of care. These episodes are used to estimate morbidity rates in general practice. Methods: Morbidity rates based on EPICON were

Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project: Cost Reduction and Productivity Improvement Program Project Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-11-01

The purpose of the Cost Reduction/Productivity Improvement Program Plan is to formalize and improve upon existing efforts to control costs which have been underway since project inception. This program plan has been coordinated with the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) and the DOE Field Office, Albuquerque (AL). It incorporates prior Uranium Mill Tallings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Office guidance issued on the subject. The opportunities for reducing cosh and improving productivity are endless. The CR/PIP has these primary objectives: Improve productivity and quality; heighten the general cost consciousness of project participants, at all levels of their organizations; identify and implement specific innovative employee ideas that extend beyond what is required through existing processes and procedures; emphasize efforts that create additional value for the money spent by maintaining the project Total Estimated Cost (TEC) at the lowest possible level

Generalized Jackknife Estimators of Weighted Average Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cattaneo, Matias D.; Crump, Richard K.; Jansson, Michael

With the aim of improving the quality of asymptotic distributional approximations for nonlinear functionals of nonparametric estimators, this paper revisits the large-sample properties of an important member of that class, namely a kernel-based weighted average derivative estimator. Asymptotic...

Project management: importance for diagnostic laboratories.

Science.gov (United States)

Croxatto, A; Greub, G

2017-07-01

The need for diagnostic laboratories to improve both quality and productivity alongside personnel shortages incite laboratory managers to constantly optimize laboratory workflows, organization, and technology. These continuous modifications of the laboratories should be conducted using efficient project and change management approaches to maximize the opportunities for successful completion of the project. This review aims at presenting a general overview of project management with an emphasis on selected critical aspects. Conventional project management tools and models, such as HERMES, described in the literature, associated personal experience, and educational courses on management have been used to illustrate this review. This review presents general guidelines of project management and highlights their importance for microbiology diagnostic laboratories. As an example, some critical aspects of project management will be illustrated with a project of automation, as experienced at the laboratories of bacteriology and hygiene of the University Hospital of Lausanne. It is important to define clearly beforehand the objective of a project, its perimeter, its costs, and its time frame including precise duration estimates of each step. Then, a project management plan including explanations and descriptions on how to manage, execute, and control the project is necessary to continuously monitor the progression of a project to achieve its defined goals. Moreover, a thorough risk analysis with contingency and mitigation measures should be performed at each phase of a project to minimize the impact of project failures. The increasing complexities of modern laboratories mean clinical microbiologists must use several management tools including project and change management to improve the outcome of major projects and activities. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Using Copulas in the Estimation of the Economic Project Value in the Mining Industry, Including Geological Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Krysa, Zbigniew; Pactwa, Katarzyna; Wozniak, Justyna; Dudek, Michal

2017-12-01

Geological variability is one of the main factors that has an influence on the viability of mining investment projects and on the technical risk of geology projects. In the current scenario, analyses of economic viability of new extraction fields have been performed for the KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. underground copper mine at Fore Sudetic Monocline with the assumption of constant averaged content of useful elements. Research presented in this article is aimed at verifying the value of production from copper and silver ore for the same economic background with the use of variable cash flows resulting from the local variability of useful elements. Furthermore, the ore economic model is investigated for a significant difference in model value estimated with the use of linear correlation between useful elements content and the height of mine face, and the approach in which model parameters correlation is based upon the copula best matched information capacity criterion. The use of copula allows the simulation to take into account the multi variable dependencies at the same time, thereby giving a better reflection of the dependency structure, which linear correlation does not take into account. Calculation results of the economic model used for deposit value estimation indicate that the correlation between copper and silver estimated with the use of copula generates higher variation of possible project value, as compared to modelling correlation based upon linear correlation. Average deposit value remains unchanged.

Quality improvement training for core medical and general practice trainees: a pilot study of project participation, completion and journal publication.

Science.gov (United States)

McNab, Duncan; McKay, John; Bowie, Paul

2015-11-01

Small-scale quality improvement projects are expected to make a significant contribution towards improving the quality of healthcare. Enabling doctors-in-training to design and lead quality improvement projects is important preparation for independent practice. Participation is mandatory in speciality training curricula. However, provision of training and ongoing support in quality improvement methods and practice is variable. We aimed to design and deliver a quality improvement training package to core medical and general practice specialty trainees and evaluate impact in terms of project participation, completion and publication in a healthcare journal. A quality improvement training package was developed and delivered to core medical trainees and general practice specialty trainees in the west of Scotland encompassing a 1-day workshop and mentoring during completion of a quality improvement project over 3 months. A mixed methods evaluation was undertaken and data collected via questionnaire surveys, knowledge assessment, and formative assessment of project proposals, completed quality improvement projects and publication success. Twenty-three participants attended the training day with 20 submitting a project proposal (87%). Ten completed quality improvement projects (43%), eight were judged as satisfactory (35%), and four were submitted and accepted for journal publication (17%). Knowledge and confidence in aspects of quality improvement improved during the pilot, while early feedback on project proposals was valued (85.7%). This small study reports modest success in training core medical trainees and general practice specialty trainees in quality improvement. Many gained knowledge of, confidence in and experience of quality improvement, while journal publication was shown to be possible. The development of educational resources to aid quality improvement project completion and mentoring support is necessary if expectations for quality improvement are to be

COST AND TIME ESTIMATES DURING THE SUPPLIER SELECTION OF AN INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR LEGAL AREA: A CASE STUDY COMPARING TRADITIONAL AND AGILE PROJECT APPROACHES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vieira, G. L. S.

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Considering a direct correlation between projects requirements details levels and their performance, this paper aims to evaluate whether the adoption of more extensive and detailed cost, time and scope estimation processes based on both practices, traditional and agile, and executed concurrently with the supplier selection stage, could guarantee greater accuracy in these estimates, thus increasing project success rates. Based on a case study for the information system project implementation into the legal area of a large Brazilian company, five suppliers had their proposals analyzed and compared in terms of the costs and deadlines involved, as well as the project management processes used in theirs estimates. From the obtained results, it was possible to observe that not all companies follow, at least during the prospecting phase, their service proposals described management processes, according to the theory. Another important finding was that the proposals involving, at least partially, agile approach concepts, were more likely to justify their estimates. These proposals still presented lower values, whenever compared to those less adherents to the theoretical concepts, as those based on traditional concepts.

Key Aspects of the Federal Direct Loan Program's Cost Estimates: Department of Education. Report to Congressional Requesters.

Science.gov (United States)

Calbom, Linda M.; Ashby, Cornelia M.

Because of concerns about the Department of Education's reliance on estimates to project costs of the William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan Program (FDLP) and a lack of historical information on which to base those estimates, Congress asked the General Accounting Office (GAO) to review how the department develops its cost estimates for the program,…

Drinking-water hydropower installation at Schattdorf - Preliminary project; Trinkwasserkraftwerk Oberfeld Haldi bei Schattdorf. Programm Kleinwasserkraftwerke. Vorprojekt 2009

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gasser, M.

2009-09-15

This preliminary project report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) describes the project for the construction of a small hydropower installation near Schattdorf, Switzerland. The location of the Faetsch springs and the ownership of the various land parcels involved are described. The general water supply project for Oberfeld-Haldi and the various springs and reservoirs involved are also discussed. The works necessary for the realisation of the hydropower project are described and discussed. Cost estimates are presented and the application for cost-covering remuneration of the scheme is noted. Estimates of energy production are presented and discussed, as is the economic viability of the project. Environmental aspects of the project are also discussed.

General guidelines for the Assessment of Internal Dose from Monitoring Data (Project IDEAS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doerfel, H.; Andrasi, A.; Bailey, M.; Blanchardon, E.; Berkovski, V.; Castellani, C. M.; Hurtgen, C.; Jourdain, J. R.; LeGuen, B.; Puncher, M.

2004-01-01

In recent major international intercomparison exercises on intake and internal dose assessments from monitoring data the results calculated by different participants varied significantly. This was mainly due to the broad variety of methods and assumptions applied in the assessment procedure. Based on these experiences the need for harmonisation of the procedures has been formulated within an EU research project under the 5th Framework Programme. The aim of the project, IDEAS, is to develop general guidelines for standardising assessments of intakes and internal doses. The IDEAS project started in October 2001 and will end in March 2005. Eight institutions from seven European countries are participating. Inputs from internal dosimetry professionals from across Europe are also being used to ensure a broad consensus in the outcome of the project. The IDEAS project is closely related to some goals of the work of Committee 2 of the ICRP and since 2003 there has been close cooperation between the two groups. To ensure that the guidelines are applicable to a wide range of practical situations, the first step has been to compile a database of well-documented cases of internal contamination. In parallel, an improved version of an existing software package has been developed and distributed to the partners for further use. A large number of cases from the database have been evaluated independently by partners in the project using the same software and the results have been reviewed. Based on these evaluations guidelines are being drafted and will be discussed with dosimetry professionals from around the world by means of a virtual workshop on the Internet early in 2004. The guidelines will be revised and refined on the basis of the experiences and discussions of this virtual workshop and the outcome of an intercomparison exercise organised as part of the project. This will be open to all internal dosimetry professionals. (Author) 10 refs

Feasibility of estimating generalized extreme-value distribution of floods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferreira de Queiroz, Manoel Moises

2004-01-01

Flood frequency analysis by generalized extreme-value probability distribution (GEV) has found increased application in recent years, given its flexibility in dealing with the three asymptotic forms of extreme distribution derived from different initial probability distributions. Estimation of higher quantiles of floods is usually accomplished by extrapolating one of the three inverse forms of GEV distribution fitted to the experimental data for return periods much higher than those actually observed. This paper studies the feasibility of fitting GEV distribution by moments of linear combinations of higher order statistics (LH moments) using synthetic annual flood series with varying characteristics and lengths. As the hydrologic events in nature such as daily discharge occur with finite values, their annual maximums are expected to follow the asymptotic form of the limited GEV distribution. Synthetic annual flood series were thus obtained from the stochastic sequences of 365 daily discharges generated by Monte Carlo simulation on the basis of limited probability distribution underlying the limited GEV distribution. The results show that parameter estimation by LH moments of this distribution, fitted to annual flood samples of less than 100-year length derived from initial limited distribution, may indicate any form of extreme-value distribution, not just the limited form as expected, and with large uncertainty in fitted parameters. A frequency analysis, on the basis of GEV distribution and LH moments, of annual flood series of lengths varying between 13 and 73 years observed at 88 gauge stations on Parana River in Brazil, indicated all the three forms of GEV distribution.(Author)

Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

Science.gov (United States)

Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

2013-12-01

In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example

Optimal capacity and buffer size estimation under Generalized Markov Fluids Models and QoS parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bavio, José; Marrón, Beatriz

2014-01-01

Quality of service (QoS) for internet traffic management requires good traffic models and good estimation of sharing network resource. A link of a network processes all traffic and it is designed with certain capacity C and buffer size B. A Generalized Markov Fluid model (GMFM), introduced by Marrón (2011), is assumed for the sources because describes in a versatile way the traffic, allows estimation based on traffic traces, and also consistent effective bandwidth estimation can be done. QoS, interpreted as buffer overflow probability, can be estimated for GMFM through the effective bandwidth estimation and solving the optimization problem presented in Courcoubetis (2002), the so call inf-sup formulas. In this work we implement a code to solve the inf-sup problem and other optimization related with it, that allow us to do traffic engineering in links of data networks to calculate both, minimum capacity required when QoS and buffer size are given or minimum buffer size required when QoS and capacity are given

Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme rainfall projections

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

Climate Models (RCMs) and General Circulation Models (GCMs). These multi-model ensembles provide the information needed to estimate probabilistic climate change projections. Several probabilistic methods have been suggested. One common assumption in most of these methods is that the climate models...... are independent. The effects of this assumption on the uncertainty quantification of extreme rainfall projections are addressed in this study. First, the interdependency of the 95% quantile of wet days in the ENSEMBLES RCMs is estimated. For this statistic and the region studied, the RCMs cannot be assumed...

Heavy Metals Contaminated Soil Project, Resource Recovery Project, and Dynamic Underground Stripping Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-02-01

The Department of Energy (DOE) established the Office of Technology Development (EM-50) (OTD) as an element of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) in November, 1989. OTD has begun to search out, develop, test and demonstrate technologies that can now or in the future be applied to the enormous remediation problem now facing the DOE and the United States public in general. Technology demonstration projects have been designed to attack a separate problem as defined by DOE. The Heavy Metals Contaminated Soil Project was conceived to test and demonstrate off-the-shelf technologies (dominantly from the mining industry) that can be brought to bear on the problem of radionuclide and heavy metal contamination in soils and sediments. The Resource Recovery Project is tasked with identifying, developing, testing, and evaluating new and innovative technologies for the remediation of metal contaminated surface and groundwater. An innovative twist on this project is the stated goal of recovering the metals, formerly disposed of as a waste, for reuse and resale, thereby transforming them into a usable resource. Finally, the Dynamic Underground Stripping Project was developed to demonstrate and remediate underground spills of hydrocarbons from formations that are (1) too deep for excavation, and/or (2) require in-situ remediation efforts of long duration. This project has already been shown effective in reducing the time for remediation by conventional methods from an estimated 200 years at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to less than one year. The savings in time and dollars from this technology alone can be immeasurable

A study of the planned value estimation method for developing earned value management system in the nuclear power plant construction project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, S.H.; Moon, B.S., E-mail: gustblast@khnp.co.kr, E-mail: moonbs@khnp.co.kr [Korea Hydro & Nuclear power co.,Ltd., Central Research Inst., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, J.H., E-mail: ljh@kkprotech.com [Kong Kwan Protech Co.,Ltd., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2014-07-01

The Earned Value Management System (EVMS) is a project management technique for measuring project performance and progress, and then forward projection through the integrated management and control of cost and schedule. This research reviewed the concept of the EVMS method, and proposes two Planned Value estimation methods for the potential application to succeeding NPP construction projects by using the historical data from the proceeding NPP projects. This paper is to introduce the solution for the problems caused by the absence of relevant management system incorporating schedule and cost, which has arisen as repeated issues in NPP construction project management. (author)

A study of the planned value estimation method for developing earned value management system in the nuclear power plant construction project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, S.H.; Moon, B.S.; Lee, J.H.

2014-01-01

The Earned Value Management System (EVMS) is a project management technique for measuring project performance and progress, and then forward projection through the integrated management and control of cost and schedule. This research reviewed the concept of the EVMS method, and proposes two Planned Value estimation methods for the potential application to succeeding NPP construction projects by using the historical data from the proceeding NPP projects. This paper is to introduce the solution for the problems caused by the absence of relevant management system incorporating schedule and cost, which has arisen as repeated issues in NPP construction project management. (author)

Phase 1 of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-08-01

The work described in this report was prompted by the public's concern about potential effect from the radioactive materials released from the Hanford Site. The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project was established to estimate radiation dose the public might have received from the Hanford Site since 1944, when facilities began operating. Phase 1 of the HEDR Project is a ''pilot'' or ''demonstration'' phase. The objectives of this initial phase were to determine whether enough historical information could be found or reconstructed to be used for dose estimation and develop and test conceptual and computational models for calculating credible dose estimates. Preliminary estimates of radiation doses were produced in Phase 1 because they are needed to achieve these objectives. The reader is cautioned that the dose estimates provided in this and other Phase 1 HEDR reports are preliminary. As the HEDR Project continues, the dose estimates will change for at least three reasons: more complete input information for models will be developed; the models themselves will be refined; and the size and shape of the geographic study area will change. This is one of three draft reports that summarize the first phase of the four-phased HEDR Project. This, the Summary Report, is directed to readers who want a general understanding of the Phase 1 work and preliminary dose estimates. The two other reports -- the Air Pathway Report and the Columbia River Pathway Report -- are for readers who understand the radiation dose assessment process and want to see more technical detail. Detailed descriptions of the dose reconstruction process are available in more than 20 supporting reports listed in Appendix A. 32 refs., 46 figs

General aspects of the project organization - the suppliers' view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bogen, J.

1975-01-01

One of the major aims in the economic management of a nuclear power project is the completion of the project on scheduled time, at preditermined cost and technical performance in accordance with pre-established goals. The achievement of these goals depends, to the major extent, on the adequacy and accuracy of the project plan. The highest possibilities to save money, minimize delivery time, secure good performance are given during the periode of project planning. During project implementation the project management only should direct his activities for the realization of the pre-elaborated project plan. (orig./FW) [de

Scientific projection paper for genetics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grahn, D.

1980-01-01

This Projection Paper is in two parts. The first is a general discussion of current knowledge and the present basis of radiation protection policy, the rather dismal prospects in the foreseeable future of getting realistic estimates of the human impact of radiation-induced mutation, and some general remarks about radiation standards and research strategy. The second part deals with specific research projects that might increase basic knowledge and narrow the gap between what is needed and what is known. We should emphasize at the outset that, of all environmental hazards, radiation is one whose genetic effects are best understood. There is good information on the dose-response curve, on the effects of dose rate and fractionation, and on the differential sensitivity of different ages, sexes and cell stages. This includes a great deal of knowledge of one organism closely related to man, the mouse. This information has been the basis for risk assessment and for safety standards that are widely accepted as solidly based

A bottom-up approach to estimating cost elements of REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Merger Eduard

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Several previous global REDD+ cost studies have been conducted, demonstrating that payments for maintaining forest carbon stocks have significant potential to be a cost-effective mechanism for climate change mitigation. These studies have mostly followed highly aggregated top-down approaches without estimating the full range of REDD+ costs elements, thus underestimating the actual costs of REDD+. Based on three REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania, representing an area of 327,825 ha, this study explicitly adopts a bottom-up approach to data assessment. By estimating opportunity, implementation, transaction and institutional costs of REDD+ we develop a practical and replicable methodological framework to consistently assess REDD+ cost elements. Results Based on historical land use change patterns, current region-specific economic conditions and carbon stocks, project-specific opportunity costs ranged between US$ -7.8 and 28.8 tCOxxxx for deforestation and forest degradation drivers such as agriculture, fuel wood production, unsustainable timber extraction and pasture expansion. The mean opportunity costs for the three projects ranged between US$ 10.1 – 12.5 tCO2. Implementation costs comprised between 89% and 95% of total project costs (excluding opportunity costs ranging between US$ 4.5 - 12.2 tCO2 for a period of 30 years. Transaction costs for measurement, reporting, verification (MRV, and other carbon market related compliance costs comprised a minor share, between US$ 0.21 - 1.46 tCO2. Similarly, the institutional costs comprised around 1% of total REDD+ costs in a range of US$ 0.06 – 0.11 tCO2. Conclusions The use of bottom-up approaches to estimate REDD+ economics by considering regional variations in economic conditions and carbon stocks has been shown to be an appropriate approach to provide policy and decision-makers robust economic information on REDD+. The assessment of opportunity costs is a crucial first step to

A bottom-up approach to estimating cost elements of REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Several previous global REDD+ cost studies have been conducted, demonstrating that payments for maintaining forest carbon stocks have significant potential to be a cost-effective mechanism for climate change mitigation. These studies have mostly followed highly aggregated top-down approaches without estimating the full range of REDD+ costs elements, thus underestimating the actual costs of REDD+. Based on three REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania, representing an area of 327,825 ha, this study explicitly adopts a bottom-up approach to data assessment. By estimating opportunity, implementation, transaction and institutional costs of REDD+ we develop a practical and replicable methodological framework to consistently assess REDD+ cost elements. Results Based on historical land use change patterns, current region-specific economic conditions and carbon stocks, project-specific opportunity costs ranged between US$ -7.8 and 28.8 tCOxxxx for deforestation and forest degradation drivers such as agriculture, fuel wood production, unsustainable timber extraction and pasture expansion. The mean opportunity costs for the three projects ranged between US$ 10.1 – 12.5 tCO2. Implementation costs comprised between 89% and 95% of total project costs (excluding opportunity costs) ranging between US$ 4.5 - 12.2 tCO2 for a period of 30 years. Transaction costs for measurement, reporting, verification (MRV), and other carbon market related compliance costs comprised a minor share, between US$ 0.21 - 1.46 tCO2. Similarly, the institutional costs comprised around 1% of total REDD+ costs in a range of US$ 0.06 – 0.11 tCO2. Conclusions The use of bottom-up approaches to estimate REDD+ economics by considering regional variations in economic conditions and carbon stocks has been shown to be an appropriate approach to provide policy and decision-makers robust economic information on REDD+. The assessment of opportunity costs is a crucial first step to provide information on the

A covariance correction that accounts for correlation estimation to improve finite-sample inference with generalized estimating equations: A study on its applicability with structured correlation matrices.

Science.gov (United States)

Westgate, Philip M

2016-01-01

When generalized estimating equations (GEE) incorporate an unstructured working correlation matrix, the variances of regression parameter estimates can inflate due to the estimation of the correlation parameters. In previous work, an approximation for this inflation that results in a corrected version of the sandwich formula for the covariance matrix of regression parameter estimates was derived. Use of this correction for correlation structure selection also reduces the over-selection of the unstructured working correlation matrix. In this manuscript, we conduct a simulation study to demonstrate that an increase in variances of regression parameter estimates can occur when GEE incorporates structured working correlation matrices as well. Correspondingly, we show the ability of the corrected version of the sandwich formula to improve the validity of inference and correlation structure selection. We also study the relative influences of two popular corrections to a different source of bias in the empirical sandwich covariance estimator.

Smooth Approximation l 0-Norm Constrained Affine Projection Algorithm and Its Applications in Sparse Channel Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

We propose a smooth approximation l 0-norm constrained affine projection algorithm (SL0-APA) to improve the convergence speed and the steady-state error of affine projection algorithm (APA) for sparse channel estimation. The proposed algorithm ensures improved performance in terms of the convergence speed and the steady-state error via the combination of a smooth approximation l 0-norm (SL0) penalty on the coefficients into the standard APA cost function, which gives rise to a zero attractor that promotes the sparsity of the channel taps in the channel estimation and hence accelerates the convergence speed and reduces the steady-state error when the channel is sparse. The simulation results demonstrate that our proposed SL0-APA is superior to the standard APA and its sparsity-aware algorithms in terms of both the convergence speed and the steady-state behavior in a designated sparse channel. Furthermore, SL0-APA is shown to have smaller steady-state error than the previously proposed sparsity-aware algorithms when the number of nonzero taps in the sparse channel increases. PMID:24790588

On the estimation of the degree of regression polynomial

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toeroek, Cs.

1997-01-01

The mathematical functions most commonly used to model curvature in plots are polynomials. Generally, the higher the degree of the polynomial, the more complex is the trend that its graph can represent. We propose a new statistical-graphical approach based on the discrete projective transformation (DPT) to estimating the degree of polynomial that adequately describes the trend in the plot

Critical analysis of the Hanford spent nuclear fuel project activity based cost estimate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Warren, R.N.

1998-09-29

In 1997, the SNFP developed a baseline change request (BCR) and submitted it to DOE-RL for approval. The schedule was formally evaluated to have a 19% probability of success [Williams, 1998]. In December 1997, DOE-RL Manager John Wagoner approved the BCR contingent upon a subsequent independent review of the new baseline. The SNFP took several actions during the first quarter of 1998 to prepare for the independent review. The project developed the Estimating Requirements and Implementation Guide [DESH, 1998] and trained cost account managers (CAMS) and other personnel involved in the estimating process in activity-based cost (ABC) estimating techniques. The SNFP then applied ABC estimating techniques to develop the basis for the December Baseline (DB) and documented that basis in Basis of Estimate (BOE) books. These BOEs were provided to DOE in April 1998. DOE commissioned Professional Analysis, Inc. (PAI) to perform a critical analysis (CA) of the DB. PAI`s review formally began on April 13. PAI performed the CA, provided three sets of findings to the SNFP contractor, and initiated reconciliation meetings. During the course of PAI`s review, DOE directed the SNFP to develop a new baseline with a higher probability of success. The contractor transmitted the new baseline, which is referred to as the High Probability Baseline (HPB), to DOE on April 15, 1998 [Williams, 1998]. The HPB was estimated to approach a 90% confidence level on the start of fuel movement [Williams, 1998]. This high probability resulted in an increased cost and a schedule extension. To implement the new baseline, the contractor initiated 26 BCRs with supporting BOES. PAI`s scope was revised on April 28 to add reviewing the HPB and the associated BCRs and BOES.

Cost Estimating Handbook for Environmental Restoration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

Environmental restoration (ER) projects have presented the DOE and cost estimators with a number of properties that are not comparable to the normal estimating climate within DOE. These properties include: An entirely new set of specialized expressions and terminology. A higher than normal exposure to cost and schedule risk, as compared to most other DOE projects, due to changing regulations, public involvement, resource shortages, and scope of work. A higher than normal percentage of indirect costs to the total estimated cost due primarily to record keeping, special training, liability, and indemnification. More than one estimate for a project, particularly in the assessment phase, in order to provide input into the evaluation of alternatives for the cleanup action. While some aspects of existing guidance for cost estimators will be applicable to environmental restoration projects, some components of the present guidelines will have to be modified to reflect the unique elements of these projects. The purpose of this Handbook is to assist cost estimators in the preparation of environmental restoration estimates for Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) projects undertaken by DOE. The DOE has, in recent years, seen a significant increase in the number, size, and frequency of environmental restoration projects that must be costed by the various DOE offices. The coming years will show the EM program to be the largest non-weapons program undertaken by DOE. These projects create new and unique estimating requirements since historical cost and estimating precedents are meager at best. It is anticipated that this Handbook will enhance the quality of cost data within DOE in several ways by providing: The basis for accurate, consistent, and traceable baselines. Sound methodologies, guidelines, and estimating formats. Sources of cost data/databases and estimating tools and techniques available at DOE cost professionals

A General Method to Estimate Earthquake Moment and Magnitude using Regional Phase Amplitudes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pasyanos, M E

2009-11-19

This paper presents a general method of estimating earthquake magnitude using regional phase amplitudes, called regional M{sub o} or regional M{sub w}. Conceptually, this method uses an earthquake source model along with an attenuation model and geometrical spreading which accounts for the propagation to utilize regional phase amplitudes of any phase and frequency. Amplitudes are corrected to yield a source term from which one can estimate the seismic moment. Moment magnitudes can then be reliably determined with sets of observed phase amplitudes rather than predetermined ones, and afterwards averaged to robustly determine this parameter. We first examine in detail several events to demonstrate the methodology. We then look at various ensembles of phases and frequencies, and compare results to existing regional methods. We find regional M{sub o} to be a stable estimator of earthquake size that has several advantages over other methods. Because of its versatility, it is applicable to many more events, particularly smaller events. We make moment estimates for earthquakes ranging from magnitude 2 to as large as 7. Even with diverse input amplitude sources, we find magnitude estimates to be more robust than typical magnitudes and existing regional methods and might be tuned further to improve upon them. The method yields a more meaningful quantity of seismic moment, which can be recast as M{sub w}. Lastly, it is applied here to the Middle East region using an existing calibration model, but it would be easy to transport to any region with suitable attenuation calibration.

Parameter Estimation of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor Using Orthogonal Projection and Recursive Least Squares Combinatorial Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iman Yousefi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents parameter estimation of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor (PMSM using a combinatorial algorithm. Nonlinear fourth-order space state model of PMSM is selected. This model is rewritten to the linear regression form without linearization. Noise is imposed to the system in order to provide a real condition, and then combinatorial Orthogonal Projection Algorithm and Recursive Least Squares (OPA&RLS method is applied in the linear regression form to the system. Results of this method are compared to the Orthogonal Projection Algorithm (OPA and Recursive Least Squares (RLS methods to validate the feasibility of the proposed method. Simulation results validate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm.

34 CFR 350.10 - What are the general requirements for Disability and Rehabilitation Research Projects?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... more of the following types of activities, as specified in §§ 350.13-350.19: (1) Research. (2... 34 Education 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What are the general requirements for Disability and Rehabilitation Research Projects? 350.10 Section 350.10 Education Regulations of the Offices of the Department of...

Cost estimates for nuclear power in the UK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harris, Grant; Heptonstall, Phil; Gross, Robert; Handley, David

2013-01-01

Current UK Government support for nuclear power has in part been informed by cost estimates that suggest that electricity from new nuclear power stations will be competitive with alternative low carbon generation options. The evidence and analysis presented in this paper suggests that the capital cost estimates for nuclear power that are being used to inform these projections rely on costs escalating over the pre-construction and construction phase of the new build programme at a level significantly below those that have been experienced by past US and European programmes. This paper applies observed construction time and cost escalation rates to the published estimates of capital costs for new nuclear plant in the UK and calculates the potential impact on levelised cost per unit of electricity produced. The results suggest that levelised cost may turn out to be significantly higher than expected which in turn has important implications for policy, both in general terms of the potential costs to consumers and more specifically for negotiations around the level of policy support and contractual arrangements offered to individual projects through the proposed contract for difference strike price. -- Highlights: •Nuclear power projects costs can rise substantially during the construction period. •Pre-construction and construction time can be much longer than anticipated. •Adjusting estimates for observed experience increases levelised costs significantly. •Higher costs suggest that more policy support than envisaged may be required

Dynamic analysis of a new chaotic system with fractional order and its generalized projective synchronization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niu Yu-Jun; Wang Xing-Yuan; Nian Fu-Zhong; Wang Ming-Jun

2010-01-01

Based on the stability theory of the fractional order system, the dynamic behaviours of a new fractional order system are investigated theoretically. The lowest order we found to have chaos in the new three-dimensional system is 2.46, and the period routes to chaos in the new fractional order system are also found. The effectiveness of our analysis results is further verified by numerical simulations and positive largest Lyapunov exponent. Furthermore, a nonlinear feedback controller is designed to achieve the generalized projective synchronization of the fractional order chaotic system, and its validity is proved by Laplace transformation theory. (general)

Generalized Projective Synchronization between Two Different Neural Networks with Mixed Time Delays

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuefei Wu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The generalized projective synchronization (GPS between two different neural networks with nonlinear coupling and mixed time delays is considered. Several kinds of nonlinear feedback controllers are designed to achieve GPS between two different such neural networks. Some results for GPS of these neural networks are proved theoretically by using the Lyapunov stability theory and the LaSalle invariance principle. Moreover, by comparison, we determine an optimal nonlinear controller from several ones and provide an adaptive update law for it. Computer simulations are provided to show the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed methods.

Cost estimating for large nuclear projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duggal, A.; Hunt, M.

2004-01-01

In today's market, the generation of electricity is a very competitive business, which is constantly under the watchful eye of the media and public. Nuclear power faces a lot of competition from other sources such as hydro, coal and gas. Controlling costs, monitoring costs, feedback, industry knowledge and up to date cost estimating tools are essential for a nuclear company to compete on a long term basis. This paper reviews the terminology and estimating principles used for the construction of new nuclear plants, lifetime operating costs, and the costs associated with refurbishment work. (author)

Best-Estimates in Bond Markets with Reinvestment Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne MacKay

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The concept of best-estimate, prescribed by regulators to value insurance liabilities for accounting and solvency purposes, has recently been discussed extensively in the industry and related academic literature. To differentiate hedgeable and non-hedgeable risks in a general case, recent literature defines best-estimates using orthogonal projections of a claim on the space of replicable payoffs. In this paper, we apply this concept of best-estimate to long-maturity claims in a market with reinvestment risk, since in this case the total liability cannot easily be separated into hedgeable and non-hedgeable parts. We assume that a limited number of short-maturity bonds are traded, and derive the best-estimate price of bonds with longer maturities, thus obtaining a best-estimate yield curve. We therefore use the multifactor Vasiˇcek model and derive within this framework closed-form expressions for the best-estimate prices of long-term bonds.

Conditions, factors and criteria for successful project implementation: generalization of experience of project management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Feraru Galina Sergeevna

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The article addresses issues characterizing features of project management contributing to their competitive advantage; shows the factors and criteria of success of projects and the main reasons for their failures, making the failed efforts of developers to create projects.

Waste Management Project Contingency Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edward L. Parsons, Jr.

1999-01-01

The purpose of this report is to provide the office of Waste Management (WM) with recommended contingency calculation procedures for typical WM projects. Typical projects were defined as conventional construction-type activities that use innovative elements when necessary to meet the project objectives. Projects involve treatment, storage, and disposal of low level, mixed low level, hazardous, transuranic, and high level waste. Cost contingencies are an essential part of Total Cost Management. A contingency is an amount added to a cost estimate to compensate for unexpected expenses resulting from incomplete design, unforeseen and unpredictable conditions, or uncertainties in the project scope (DOE 1994, AACE 1998). Contingency allowances are expressed as percentages of estimated cost and improve cost estimates by accounting for uncertainties. The contingency allowance is large at the beginning of a project because there are more uncertainties, but as a project develops, the allowance shrinks to adjust for costs already incurred. Ideally, the total estimated cost remains the same throughout a project. Project contingency reflects the degree of uncertainty caused by lack of project definition, and process contingency reflects the degree of uncertainty caused by use of new technology. Different cost estimation methods were reviewed and compared with respect to terminology, accuracy, and Cost Guide standards. The Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE) methods for cost estimation were selected to represent best industry practice. AACE methodology for contingency analysis can be readily applied to WM Projects, accounts for uncertainties associated with different stages of a project, and considers both project and process contingencies and the stage of technical readiness. As recommended, AACE contingency allowances taper off linearly as a project nears completion

Inventory of past DOE land disturbance, Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and estimated general reclamation costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-04-01

Since 1976, DOE preliminary investigations for a high level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, have caused widespread disturbances of the landscape. This report addresses the areal extent of those disturbances that have accrued up to June 1988, and identifies expected associated reclamation costs. It was first necessary to identify disturbances, next to classify them for reclamation purposes, and, then, to assign general reclamation costs. The purposes of the analysis were: (1) to establish the amount of disturbance that already exists in the area of Yucca Mountain in order to identify alterations of the landscape that comprise the existing baseline conditions; (2) to identify estimated general reclamation costs for repair of the disturbances; (3) to provide information needed to establish disturbance models, and eventually environmental impact models, that can be applied to future DOE activities during Site Characterization and later phases of repository development, if they occur, and (4) to provide indicators of the needs for reclamation of future disturbances created by DOE's Site Characterization program. Disturbances were estimated using measurements from June 1988, large scale color aerial photography. Two reconnaissance site visits were also conducted. The identified disturbance totals by type are displayed in tabular form in the appendices. 84 refs., 2 figs., 9 tabs

Unsupervised Learning and Generalization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Lars Kai; Larsen, Jan

1996-01-01

The concept of generalization is defined for a general class of unsupervised learning machines. The generalization error is a straightforward extension of the corresponding concept for supervised learning, and may be estimated empirically using a test set or by statistical means-in close analogy ...... with supervised learning. The empirical and analytical estimates are compared for principal component analysis and for K-means clustering based density estimation......The concept of generalization is defined for a general class of unsupervised learning machines. The generalization error is a straightforward extension of the corresponding concept for supervised learning, and may be estimated empirically using a test set or by statistical means-in close analogy...

Complementarity based a posteriori error estimates and their properties

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Vejchodský, Tomáš

2012-01-01

Roč. 82, č. 10 (2012), s. 2033-2046 ISSN 0378-4754 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA102/07/0496; GA AV ČR IAA100760702 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : error majorant * a posteriori error estimates * method of hypercircle Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.836, year: 2012 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475411001509

Pareto-Optimal Estimates of California Precipitation Change

Science.gov (United States)

Langenbrunner, Baird; Neelin, J. David

2017-12-01

In seeking constraints on global climate model projections under global warming, one commonly finds that different subsets of models perform well under different objective functions, and these trade-offs are difficult to weigh. Here a multiobjective approach is applied to a large set of subensembles generated from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 ensemble. We use observations and reanalyses to constrain tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, upper level zonal winds in the midlatitude Pacific, and California precipitation. An evolutionary algorithm identifies the set of Pareto-optimal subensembles across these three measures, and these subensembles are used to constrain end-of-century California wet season precipitation change. This methodology narrows the range of projections throughout California, increasing confidence in estimates of positive mean precipitation change. Finally, we show how this technique complements and generalizes emergent constraint approaches for restricting uncertainty in end-of-century projections within multimodel ensembles using multiple criteria for observational constraints.

A Projection free method for Generalized Eigenvalue Problem with a nonsmooth Regularizer.

Science.gov (United States)

Hwang, Seong Jae; Collins, Maxwell D; Ravi, Sathya N; Ithapu, Vamsi K; Adluru, Nagesh; Johnson, Sterling C; Singh, Vikas

2015-12-01

Eigenvalue problems are ubiquitous in computer vision, covering a very broad spectrum of applications ranging from estimation problems in multi-view geometry to image segmentation. Few other linear algebra problems have a more mature set of numerical routines available and many computer vision libraries leverage such tools extensively. However, the ability to call the underlying solver only as a "black box" can often become restrictive. Many 'human in the loop' settings in vision frequently exploit supervision from an expert, to the extent that the user can be considered a subroutine in the overall system. In other cases, there is additional domain knowledge, side or even partial information that one may want to incorporate within the formulation. In general, regularizing a (generalized) eigenvalue problem with such side information remains difficult. Motivated by these needs, this paper presents an optimization scheme to solve generalized eigenvalue problems (GEP) involving a (nonsmooth) regularizer. We start from an alternative formulation of GEP where the feasibility set of the model involves the Stiefel manifold. The core of this paper presents an end to end stochastic optimization scheme for the resultant problem. We show how this general algorithm enables improved statistical analysis of brain imaging data where the regularizer is derived from other 'views' of the disease pathology, involving clinical measurements and other image-derived representations.

General guidelines for the assessment of internal dose from monitoring data: Progress of the IDEAS project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doerfel, H.; Andrasi, A.; Bailey, M.; Blanchardon, E.; Cruz-Suarez, R.; Berkovski, V.; Castellani, C. M.; Hurtgenv, C.; Leguen, B.; Malatova, I.; Marsh, J.; Stather, J.; Zeger, J.

2007-01-01

In recent major international intercomparison exercises on intake and internal dose assessments from monitoring data, the results calculated by different participants varied significantly. Based on this experience the need for harmonisation of the procedures has been formulated within an EU 5. Framework Programme research project. The aim of the project, IDEAS, is to develop general guidelines for standardising assessments of intakes and internal doses. The IDEAS project started in October 2001 and ended in June 2005. The project is closely related to some goals of the work of Committee 2 of the ICRP and since 2003 there has been close cooperation between the two groups. To ensure that the guidelines are applicable to a wide range of practical situations, the first step was to compile a database of well-documented cases of internal contamination. In parallel, an improved version of an existing software package was developed and distributed to the partners for further use. A large number of cases from the database was evaluated independently by the partners and the results reviewed. Based on these evaluations, guidelines were drafted and discussed with dosimetry professionals from around the world by means of a virtual workshop on the Internet early in 2004. The guidelines have been revised and refined on the basis of the experiences and discussions in this virtual workshop. The general philosophy of the Guidelines is presented here, focusing on the principles of harmonisation, optimisation and proportionality. Finally, the proposed Levels of Task to structure the approach of internal dose evaluation are reported. (authors)

On the rate of convergence of the alternating projection method in finite dimensional spaces

Science.gov (United States)

Galántai, A.

2005-10-01

Using the results of Smith, Solmon, and Wagner [K. Smith, D. Solomon, S. Wagner, Practical and mathematical aspects of the problem of reconstructing objects from radiographs, Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. 83 (1977) 1227-1270] and Nelson and Neumann [S. Nelson, M. Neumann, Generalizations of the projection method with application to SOR theory for Hermitian positive semidefinite linear systems, Numer. Math. 51 (1987) 123-141] we derive new estimates for the speed of the alternating projection method and its relaxed version in . These estimates can be computed in at most O(m3) arithmetic operations unlike the estimates in papers mentioned above that require spectral information. The new and old estimates are equivalent in many practical cases. In cases when the new estimates are weaker, the numerical testing indicates that they approximate the original bounds in papers mentioned above quite well.

Image Denoising via Bayesian Estimation of Statistical Parameter Using Generalized Gamma Density Prior in Gaussian Noise Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kittisuwan, Pichid

2015-03-01

The application of image processing in industry has shown remarkable success over the last decade, for example, in security and telecommunication systems. The denoising of natural image corrupted by Gaussian noise is a classical problem in image processing. So, image denoising is an indispensable step during image processing. This paper is concerned with dual-tree complex wavelet-based image denoising using Bayesian techniques. One of the cruxes of the Bayesian image denoising algorithms is to estimate the statistical parameter of the image. Here, we employ maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation to calculate local observed variance with generalized Gamma density prior for local observed variance and Laplacian or Gaussian distribution for noisy wavelet coefficients. Evidently, our selection of prior distribution is motivated by efficient and flexible properties of generalized Gamma density. The experimental results show that the proposed method yields good denoising results.

Estimate of spin polarization for PEP using generalized transformation matrices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chao, A.W.

1978-04-01

The spin polarization for PEP has been estimated before by using simplified models. The main difficulty in the previous estimates is that the strength of depolarization effects caused by various electromagnetic field errors could not be specified accurately. To overcome this difficulty, a matrix formalism for depolarization calculation was developed recently. One basic ingredient of this theory is to represent an electron by an 8-dimensional state vector, X = (x,x',y,y',z,δ,α,β) where the first six coordinates are the usual transverse and longitudinal canonical coordinates, while α and β are the two components of the electron's spin vector perpendicular to the equilibrium direction of polarization /cflx n/. The degree of depolarization is specified by 1/2(α 2 + β 2 ). The state vector X will be transformed by an 8 x 8 matrix as the electron passes through a beam-line element such as a bending magnet or an rf cavity. From any position s, one multiplies successively the 8 x 8 matrices around one revolution of the storage ring to obtain the total transformation T(s). Any impulse perturbation ΔX to the electron's state vector occurring at s will be transformed repeatedly by T(s) as the electron circulates around the storage ring. Another basic ingredient is to decompose ΔX into 8 eigenstate components with eigenvectors determined from T(s). Six of these eigenstate components corresponding to the space states will be damped out by the usual radiation damping. The projections of ΔX onto the remaining two spin eigenstates are directly related to the loss of polarization due to the impulse perturbation ΔX. Depolarization effects can thus be calculated directly once all perturbations are specified. 7 refs., 4 figs

General-purpose heat source project and space nuclear safety and fuels program. Progress report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maraman, W.J.

1979-12-01

This formal monthly report covers the studies related to the use of 238 PuO 2 in radioisotopic power systems carried out for the Advanced Nuclear Systems and Projects Division of the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory. The two programs involved are general-purpose heat source development and space nuclear safety and fuels. Most of the studies discussed hear are of a continuing nature. Results and conclusions described may change as the work continues

General aspects of project organization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Staebler, K.

1975-01-01

For power plant construction and errection the Federal Republic of Germany has a very well experienced industry with remarkable results in the past time. The 'bottle-neck' is not so much the design and manufacturing, it is also not in the area of sub-suppliers but it is more the personal for mounting and commissioning of the plant. In the report are only touched the various problems of project organization by the point of view of the utility. (orig./FW) [de

Hybrid dislocated control and general hybrid projective dislocated synchronization for the modified Lue chaotic system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Yuhua; Zhou Wuneng; Fang Jianan

2009-01-01

This paper introduces a modified Lue chaotic system, and some basic dynamical properties are studied. Based on these properties, we present hybrid dislocated control method for stabilizing chaos to unstable equilibrium and limit cycle. In addition, based on the Lyapunov stability theorem, general hybrid projective dislocated synchronization (GHPDS) is proposed, which includes complete dislocated synchronization, dislocated anti-synchronization and projective dislocated synchronization as its special item. The drive and response systems discussed in this paper can be strictly different dynamical systems (including different dimensional systems). As examples, the modified Lue chaotic system, Chen chaotic system and hyperchaotic Chen system are discussed. Numerical simulations are given to show the effectiveness of these methods.

Hybrid dislocated control and general hybrid projective dislocated synchronization for the modified Lue chaotic system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu Yuhua [College of Information Science and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620 (China) and Department of Maths, Yunyang Teacher' s College, Hubei 442000 (China)], E-mail: yuhuaxu2004@163.com; Zhou Wuneng [College of Information Science and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620 (China)], E-mail: wnzhou@163.com; Fang Jianan [College of Information Science and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620 (China)

2009-11-15

This paper introduces a modified Lue chaotic system, and some basic dynamical properties are studied. Based on these properties, we present hybrid dislocated control method for stabilizing chaos to unstable equilibrium and limit cycle. In addition, based on the Lyapunov stability theorem, general hybrid projective dislocated synchronization (GHPDS) is proposed, which includes complete dislocated synchronization, dislocated anti-synchronization and projective dislocated synchronization as its special item. The drive and response systems discussed in this paper can be strictly different dynamical systems (including different dimensional systems). As examples, the modified Lue chaotic system, Chen chaotic system and hyperchaotic Chen system are discussed. Numerical simulations are given to show the effectiveness of these methods.

Inferring category characteristics from sample characteristics: inductive reasoning and social projection.

Science.gov (United States)

Krueger, J; Clement, R W

1996-03-01

Inductive reasoning involves generalization from sample observations to categories. This research examined the conditions under which generalizations go beyond the boundaries of the sampled categories. In Experiment 1, participants sampled colored chips from urns. When categorization was not salient, participants revised their estimates of the probability of a particular color even in urns they had not sampled. As categorization became more salient, generalization became limited to the sampled urn. In Experiment 2 the salience of categorization in social induction was varied. When social categorization was not salient, participants projected their own responses to test items to members of a laboratory group even when they themselves did not belong to this group. When salience increased, projection decreased among nonmembers but not among members. In Experiment 3 these results were replicated in a field setting.

The international Chernobyl project: Assessment of radiological consequences and evaluation of protective measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-08-01

This brochure gives a brief account of the findings of the International Chernobyl Project. Further details will be found in the report ''The International Chernobyl Project: An Overview'' (INI22:066284/5) and in the Technical Report (INI23:011339). Measurements and assessments carried out under the project provided general corroboration of the levels of surface cesium-137 contamination reported in the official maps. The project also concluded that the official procedures for estimating radiation doses to the population were scientifically sound, although they generally resulted in overestimates of two- to threefold. The project could find no marked increase in the incidence of leukemia or cancer, but reported absorbed thyroid doses in children might lead to a statistically detectable rise in the incidence of thyroid tumors. Significant non-radiation-related health disorders were found, and the accident had substantial psychological consequences in terms of anxiety and stress

General guidance and procedures for estimating and reporting national GHG emissions for agriculture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rypdal, K.

2002-01-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture account for a large share of total GHG emissions in most countries. Methane from ruminants, animal manure and rice fields, and nitrous oxide from agricultural soils are among the most important sources. In general, these emission estimates also are more uncertain than most other parts of the GHG emission inventory. IPCC has developed guidelines for estimating and reporting emissions of GHG. These guidelines shall be followed to secure complete, consistent, accurate and transparent reporting of emissions. However, the recommended methodologies are tiered, and choice of methods shall preferably reflect national circumstances, the national importance of a source, and different resources to prepare inventories. A country may also apply a national methodology given that it is well documented and not in conflict with good practice. Emission data reported under the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change are subject to external control, and the methodologies are reviewed by experts on agricultural inventories. (au)

General chemistry: expanding the learning outcomes and promoting interdisciplinary connections through the use of a semester-long project.

Science.gov (United States)

Wenzel, Thomas J

2006-01-01

The laboratory component of a first-semester general chemistry course for science majors is described. The laboratory involves a semester-long project undertaken in a small-group format. Students are asked to examine whether plants grown in soil contaminated with lead take up more lead than those grown in uncontaminated soil. They are also asked to examine whether the acidity of the rainwater affects the amount of lead taken up by the plants. Groups are then given considerable independence in the design and implementation of the experiment. Once the seeds are planted, which takes about 4 wk into the term, several shorter experiments are integrated in before it is time to harvest and analyze the plants. The use of a project and small working groups allows for the development of a broader range of learning outcomes than occurs in a "traditional" general chemistry laboratory. The nature of these outcomes and some of the student responses to the laboratory experience are described. This particular project also works well at demonstrating the connections among chemistry, biology, geology, and environmental studies.

THE LICK AGN MONITORING PROJECT: RECALIBRATING SINGLE-EPOCH VIRIAL BLACK HOLE MASS ESTIMATES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Daeseong; Woo, Jong-Hak [Astronomy Program, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Treu, Tommaso; Bennert, Vardha N. [Department of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States); Barth, Aaron J.; Walsh, Jonelle [Department of Physics and Astronomy, 4129 Frederick Reines Hall, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-4575 (United States); Bentz, Misty C. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Georgia State University Atlanta, GA 30303 (United States); Canalizo, Gabriela [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Riverside, 900 University Ave., Riverside, CA 92521 (United States); Filippenko, Alexei V. [Department of Astronomy, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3411 (United States); Gates, Elinor [Lick Observatory, P.O. Box 85, Mount Hamilton, CA 95140 (United States); Greene, Jenny E. [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States); Malkan, Matthew A., E-mail: woo@astro.snu.ac.kr [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90024 (United States)

2012-03-01

We investigate the calibration and uncertainties of black hole (BH) mass estimates based on the single-epoch (SE) method, using homogeneous and high-quality multi-epoch spectra obtained by the Lick Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN) Monitoring Project for nine local Seyfert 1 galaxies with BH masses <10{sup 8} M{sub Sun }. By decomposing the spectra into their AGNs and stellar components, we study the variability of the SE H{beta} line width (full width at half-maximum intensity, FWHM{sub H{beta}} or dispersion, {sigma}{sub H{beta}}) and of the AGN continuum luminosity at 5100 A (L{sub 5100}). From the distribution of the 'virial products' ({proportional_to} FWHM{sub H{beta}}{sup 2} L{sup 0.5}{sub 5100} or {sigma}{sub H{beta}}{sup 2} L{sup 0.5}{sub 5100}) measured from SE spectra, we estimate the uncertainty due to the combined variability as {approx}0.05 dex (12%). This is subdominant with respect to the total uncertainty in SE mass estimates, which is dominated by uncertainties in the size-luminosity relation and virial coefficient, and is estimated to be {approx}0.46 dex (factor of {approx}3). By comparing the H{beta} line profile of the SE, mean, and root-mean-square (rms) spectra, we find that the H{beta} line is broader in the mean (and SE) spectra than in the rms spectra by {approx}0.1 dex (25%) for our sample with FWHM{sub H{beta}} <3000 km s{sup -1}. This result is at variance with larger mass BHs where the difference is typically found to be much less than 0.1 dex. To correct for this systematic difference of the H{beta} line profile, we introduce a line-width dependent virial factor, resulting in a recalibration of SE BH mass estimators for low-mass AGNs.

Cost estimate of high-level radioactive waste containers for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Russell, E.W.; Clarke, W. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Domian, H.A. [Babcock and Wilcox Co., Lynchburg, VA (United States); Madson, A.A. [Kaiser Engineers California Corp., Oakland, CA (United States)

1991-08-01

This report summarizes the bottoms-up cost estimates for fabrication of high-level radioactive waste disposal containers based on the Site Characterization Plan Conceptual Design (SCP-CD). These estimates were acquired by Babcock and Wilcox (B&S) under sub-contract to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). The estimates were obtained for two leading container candidate materials (Alloy 825 and CDA 715), and from other three vendors who were selected from a list of twenty solicited. Three types of container designs were analyzed that represent containers for spent fuel, and for vitrified high-level waste (HLW). The container internal structures were assumed to be AISI-304 stainless steel in all cases, with an annual production rate of 750 containers. Subjective techniques were used for estimating QA/QC costs based on vendor experience and the specifications derived for the LLNL-YMP Quality Assurance program. In addition, an independent QA/QC analysis is reported which was prepared by Kasier Engineering. Based on the cost estimates developed, LLNL recommends that values of $825K and $62K be used for the 1991 TSLCC for the spent fuel and HLW containers, respectively. These numbers represent the most conservative among the three vendors, and are for the high-nickel anstenitic steel (Alloy 825). 6 refs., 7 figs.

Cost estimate of high-level radioactive waste containers for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, E.W.; Clarke, W.; Domian, H.A.; Madson, A.A.

1991-08-01

This report summarizes the bottoms-up cost estimates for fabrication of high-level radioactive waste disposal containers based on the Site Characterization Plan Conceptual Design (SCP-CD). These estimates were acquired by Babcock and Wilcox (B ampersand S) under sub-contract to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). The estimates were obtained for two leading container candidate materials (Alloy 825 and CDA 715), and from other three vendors who were selected from a list of twenty solicited. Three types of container designs were analyzed that represent containers for spent fuel, and for vitrified high-level waste (HLW). The container internal structures were assumed to be AISI-304 stainless steel in all cases, with an annual production rate of 750 containers. Subjective techniques were used for estimating QA/QC costs based on vendor experience and the specifications derived for the LLNL-YMP Quality Assurance program. In addition, an independent QA/QC analysis is reported which was prepared by Kasier Engineering. Based on the cost estimates developed, LLNL recommends that values of $825K and $62K be used for the 1991 TSLCC for the spent fuel and HLW containers, respectively. These numbers represent the most conservative among the three vendors, and are for the high-nickel anstenitic steel (Alloy 825). 6 refs., 7 figs

Cancer risk estimation from the A-bomb survivors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pierce, D.A.; Vaeth, M.

1989-10-01

Generalizations regarding radiogenic cancer risks from the A-bomb survivor data of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation involve a large number of well-identified uncertainties and approximations. These include extrapolation to low doses and dose rates, projections in time, sampling variation, the quality of the data, extrapolation to other populations, and the use of simplifying conventions. This paper discusses some of these issues, with emphasis on the first three. Results are given regarding the maximum 'linear-quadratic' curvature consistent with these data, taking into account uncertainties in individual exposure estimates. Discussion is given regarding use of relative risk models and projection of lifetime risks, emphasizing results for those who were old enough at exposure to have been followed up for a major part of their lives by now, and stressing the speculative aspects of conclusions about those exposed as children. Combining these results, and brief discussion of other uncertainties itemized above, comment is made on the evolution of risk estimates over the past 15 years. (author)

WHE-PAGER Project: A new initiative in estimating global building inventory and its seismic vulnerability

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, K.A.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Wald, D.J.; Greene, M.; Comartin, Craig

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake’s Response (PAGER) Project and the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute’s World Housing Encyclopedia (WHE) are creating a global database of building stocks and their earthquake vulnerability. The WHE already represents a growing, community-developed public database of global housing and its detailed structural characteristics. It currently contains more than 135 reports on particular housing types in 40 countries. The WHE-PAGER effort extends the WHE in several ways: (1) by addressing non-residential construction; (2) by quantifying the prevalence of each building type in both rural and urban areas; (3) by addressing day and night occupancy patterns, (4) by adding quantitative vulnerability estimates from judgment or statistical observation; and (5) by analytically deriving alternative vulnerability estimates using in part laboratory testing.

CONTAMINATED SOIL VOLUME ESTIMATE TRACKING METHODOLOGY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durham, L.A.; Johnson, R.L.; Rieman, C.; Kenna, T.; Pilon, R.

2003-01-01

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is conducting a cleanup of radiologically contaminated properties under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). The largest cost element for most of the FUSRAP sites is the transportation and disposal of contaminated soil. Project managers and engineers need an estimate of the volume of contaminated soil to determine project costs and schedule. Once excavation activities begin and additional remedial action data are collected, the actual quantity of contaminated soil often deviates from the original estimate, resulting in cost and schedule impacts to the project. The project costs and schedule need to be frequently updated by tracking the actual quantities of excavated soil and contaminated soil remaining during the life of a remedial action project. A soil volume estimate tracking methodology was developed to provide a mechanism for project managers and engineers to create better project controls of costs and schedule. For the FUSRAP Linde site, an estimate of the initial volume of in situ soil above the specified cleanup guidelines was calculated on the basis of discrete soil sample data and other relevant data using indicator geostatistical techniques combined with Bayesian analysis. During the remedial action, updated volume estimates of remaining in situ soils requiring excavation were calculated on a periodic basis. In addition to taking into account the volume of soil that had been excavated, the updated volume estimates incorporated both new gamma walkover surveys and discrete sample data collected as part of the remedial action. A civil survey company provided periodic estimates of actual in situ excavated soil volumes. By using the results from the civil survey of actual in situ volumes excavated and the updated estimate of the remaining volume of contaminated soil requiring excavation, the USACE Buffalo District was able to forecast and update project costs and schedule. The soil volume

On Estimation of the A-norm of the Error in CG and PCG

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Strakoš, Zdeněk; Tichý, Petr

2003-01-01

Roč. 3, - (2003), s. 553-554 ISSN 1617-7061. [GAMM. Padua, 24.03.2003-28.03.2003] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/02/0595 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1030915 Keywords : preconditioned conjugate gradient * error estimates * stopping criteria Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics

Estimation of the transboundary economic impacts of the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kahsay, T.N.; Kuik, O.J.; Brouwer, R.; van der Zaag, P.

2015-01-01

Employing a multi-region multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling framework, this study estimates the direct and indirect economic impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Eastern Nile economies. The study contributes to the existing literature by evaluating the

The never ending road: improving, adapting and refining a needs-based model to estimate future general practitioner requirements in two Australian states.

Science.gov (United States)

Laurence, Caroline O; Heywood, Troy; Bell, Janice; Atkinson, Kaye; Karnon, Jonathan

2018-03-27

Health workforce planning models have been developed to estimate the future health workforce requirements for a population whom they serve and have been used to inform policy decisions. To adapt and further develop a need-based GP workforce simulation model to incorporate current and estimated geographic distribution of patients and GPs. A need-based simulation model that estimates the supply of GPs and levels of services required in South Australia (SA) was adapted and applied to the Western Australian (WA) workforce. The main outcome measure was the differences in the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) GPs supplied and required from 2013 to 2033. The base scenario estimated a shortage of GPs in WA from 2019 onwards with a shortage of 493 FTE GPs in 2033, while for SA, estimates showed an oversupply over the projection period. The WA urban and rural models estimated an urban shortage of GPs over this period. A reduced international medical graduate recruitment scenario resulted in estimated shortfalls of GPs by 2033 for WA and SA. The WA-specific scenarios of lower population projections and registrar work value resulted in a reduced shortage of FTE GPs in 2033, while unfilled training places increased the shortfall of FTE GPs in 2033. The simulation model incorporates contextual differences to its structure that allows within and cross jurisdictional comparisons of workforce estimations. It also provides greater insights into the drivers of supply and demand and the impact of changes in workforce policy, promoting more informed decision-making.

Structure Assembly by a Heterogeneous Team of Robots Using State Estimation, Generalized Joints, and Mobile Parallel Manipulators

Science.gov (United States)

Komendera, Erik E.; Adhikari, Shaurav; Glassner, Samantha; Kishen, Ashwin; Quartaro, Amy

2017-01-01

Autonomous robotic assembly by mobile field robots has seen significant advances in recent decades, yet practicality remains elusive. Identified challenges include better use of state estimation to and reasoning with uncertainty, spreading out tasks to specialized robots, and implementing representative joining methods. This paper proposes replacing 1) self-correcting mechanical linkages with generalized joints for improved applicability, 2) assembly serial manipulators with parallel manipulators for higher precision and stability, and 3) all-in-one robots with a heterogeneous team of specialized robots for agent simplicity. This paper then describes a general assembly algorithm utilizing state estimation. Finally, these concepts are tested in the context of solar array assembly, requiring a team of robots to assemble, bond, and deploy a set of solar panel mockups to a backbone truss to an accuracy not built into the parts. This paper presents the results of these tests.

Adaptive generalized function matrix projective lag synchronization between fractional-order and integer-order complex networks with delayed coupling and different dimensions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dai, Hao; Si, Gangquan; Jia, Lixin; Zhang, Yanbin

2013-01-01

This paper investigates generalized function matrix projective lag synchronization between fractional-order and integer-order complex networks with delayed coupling, non-identical topological structures and different dimensions. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, generalized function matrix projective lag synchronization criteria are derived by using the adaptive control method. In addition, the three-dimensional fractional-order chaotic system and the four-dimensional integer-order hyperchaotic system as the nodes of the drive and the response networks, respectively, are analyzed in detail, and numerical simulation results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results. (paper)

A review of some a posteriori error estimates for adaptive finite element methods

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Segeth, Karel

2010-01-01

Roč. 80, č. 8 (2010), s. 1589-1600 ISSN 0378-4754. [European Seminar on Coupled Problems. Jetřichovice, 08.06.2008-13.06.2008] R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA100190803 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : hp-adaptive finite element method * a posteriori error estimators * computational error estimates Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.812, year: 2010 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475408004230

Estimating 4D-CBCT from prior information and extremely limited angle projections using structural PCA and weighted free-form deformation for lung radiotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Wendy; Zhang, You; Yin, Fang-Fang; Ren, Lei

2017-03-01

To investigate the feasibility of using structural-based principal component analysis (PCA) motion-modeling and weighted free-form deformation to estimate on-board 4D-CBCT using prior information and extremely limited angle projections for potential 4D target verification of lung radiotherapy. A technique for lung 4D-CBCT reconstruction has been previously developed using a deformation field map (DFM)-based strategy. In the previous method, each phase of the 4D-CBCT was generated by deforming a prior CT volume. The DFM was solved by a motion model extracted by a global PCA and free-form deformation (GMM-FD) technique, using a data fidelity constraint and deformation energy minimization. In this study, a new structural PCA method was developed to build a structural motion model (SMM) by accounting for potential relative motion pattern changes between different anatomical structures from simulation to treatment. The motion model extracted from planning 4DCT was divided into two structures: tumor and body excluding tumor, and the parameters of both structures were optimized together. Weighted free-form deformation (WFD) was employed afterwards to introduce flexibility in adjusting the weightings of different structures in the data fidelity constraint based on clinical interests. XCAT (computerized patient model) simulation with a 30 mm diameter lesion was simulated with various anatomical and respiratory changes from planning 4D-CT to on-board volume to evaluate the method. The estimation accuracy was evaluated by the volume percent difference (VPD)/center-of-mass-shift (COMS) between lesions in the estimated and "ground-truth" on-board 4D-CBCT. Different on-board projection acquisition scenarios and projection noise levels were simulated to investigate their effects on the estimation accuracy. The method was also evaluated against three lung patients. The SMM-WFD method achieved substantially better accuracy than the GMM-FD method for CBCT estimation using extremely

Improved Ancestry Estimation for both Genotyping and Sequencing Data using Projection Procrustes Analysis and Genotype Imputation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chaolong; Zhan, Xiaowei; Liang, Liming; Abecasis, Gonçalo R.; Lin, Xihong

2015-01-01

Accurate estimation of individual ancestry is important in genetic association studies, especially when a large number of samples are collected from multiple sources. However, existing approaches developed for genome-wide SNP data do not work well with modest amounts of genetic data, such as in targeted sequencing or exome chip genotyping experiments. We propose a statistical framework to estimate individual ancestry in a principal component ancestry map generated by a reference set of individuals. This framework extends and improves upon our previous method for estimating ancestry using low-coverage sequence reads (LASER 1.0) to analyze either genotyping or sequencing data. In particular, we introduce a projection Procrustes analysis approach that uses high-dimensional principal components to estimate ancestry in a low-dimensional reference space. Using extensive simulations and empirical data examples, we show that our new method (LASER 2.0), combined with genotype imputation on the reference individuals, can substantially outperform LASER 1.0 in estimating fine-scale genetic ancestry. Specifically, LASER 2.0 can accurately estimate fine-scale ancestry within Europe using either exome chip genotypes or targeted sequencing data with off-target coverage as low as 0.05×. Under the framework of LASER 2.0, we can estimate individual ancestry in a shared reference space for samples assayed at different loci or by different techniques. Therefore, our ancestry estimation method will accelerate discovery in disease association studies not only by helping model ancestry within individual studies but also by facilitating combined analysis of genetic data from multiple sources. PMID:26027497

Field activity cost estimates for the first 3 years of the World Bank Loan Project for schistosomiasis control in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, J; Booth, M; Jenkins, J; Wang, H; Tanner, M

1998-12-01

The World Bank Loan Project for schistosomiasis in China commenced field activities in 1992. In this paper, we describe disease control strategies for levels of different endemicity, and estimate unit costs and total expenditure of screening, treatment (cattle and humans) and snail control for 8 provinces where Schistosoma japonicum infection is endemic. Overall, we estimate that more than 21 million US dollars were spent on field activities during the first three years of the project. Mollusciciding (43% of the total expenditure) and screening (28% of the total) are estimated to have the most expensive field activities. However, despite the expense of screening, a simple model predicts that selective chemotherapy could have been cheaper than mass chemotherapy in areas where infection prevalence was higher than 15%, which was the threshold for mass chemotherapy intervention. It is concluded that considerable cost savings could be made in the future by narrowing the scope of snail control activities, redefining the threshold infection prevalence for mass chemotherapy, defining smaller administrative units, and developing rapid assessment tools.

A generalized L1-approach for a kernel estimator of conditional quantile with functional regressors: Consistency and asymptotic normality

OpenAIRE

2009-01-01

Abstract A kernel estimator of the conditional quantile is defined for a scalar response variable given a covariate taking values in a semi-metric space. The approach generalizes the median?s L1-norm estimator. The almost complete consistency and asymptotic normality are stated. correspondance: Corresponding author. Tel: +33 320 964 933; fax: +33 320 964 704. (Lemdani, Mohamed) (Laksaci, Ali) mohamed.lemdani@univ-lill...

Prediction of RNA secondary structure using generalized centroid estimators.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamada, Michiaki; Kiryu, Hisanori; Sato, Kengo; Mituyama, Toutai; Asai, Kiyoshi

2009-02-15

Recent studies have shown that the methods for predicting secondary structures of RNAs on the basis of posterior decoding of the base-pairing probabilities has an advantage with respect to prediction accuracy over the conventionally utilized minimum free energy methods. However, there is room for improvement in the objective functions presented in previous studies, which are maximized in the posterior decoding with respect to the accuracy measures for secondary structures. We propose novel estimators which improve the accuracy of secondary structure prediction of RNAs. The proposed estimators maximize an objective function which is the weighted sum of the expected number of the true positives and that of the true negatives of the base pairs. The proposed estimators are also improved versions of the ones used in previous works, namely CONTRAfold for secondary structure prediction from a single RNA sequence and McCaskill-MEA for common secondary structure prediction from multiple alignments of RNA sequences. We clarify the relations between the proposed estimators and the estimators presented in previous works, and theoretically show that the previous estimators include additional unnecessary terms in the evaluation measures with respect to the accuracy. Furthermore, computational experiments confirm the theoretical analysis by indicating improvement in the empirical accuracy. The proposed estimators represent extensions of the centroid estimators proposed in Ding et al. and Carvalho and Lawrence, and are applicable to a wide variety of problems in bioinformatics. Supporting information and the CentroidFold software are available online at: http://www.ncrna.org/software/centroidfold/.

A Simple Sampling Method for Estimating the Accuracy of Large Scale Record Linkage Projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Boyd, James H; Guiver, Tenniel; Randall, Sean M; Ferrante, Anna M; Semmens, James B; Anderson, Phil; Dickinson, Teresa

2016-05-17

Record linkage techniques allow different data collections to be brought together to provide a wider picture of the health status of individuals. Ensuring high linkage quality is important to guarantee the quality and integrity of research. Current methods for measuring linkage quality typically focus on precision (the proportion of incorrect links), given the difficulty of measuring the proportion of false negatives. The aim of this work is to introduce and evaluate a sampling based method to estimate both precision and recall following record linkage. In the sampling based method, record-pairs from each threshold (including those below the identified cut-off for acceptance) are sampled and clerically reviewed. These results are then applied to the entire set of record-pairs, providing estimates of false positives and false negatives. This method was evaluated on a synthetically generated dataset, where the true match status (which records belonged to the same person) was known. The sampled estimates of linkage quality were relatively close to actual linkage quality metrics calculated for the whole synthetic dataset. The precision and recall measures for seven reviewers were very consistent with little variation in the clerical assessment results (overall agreement using the Fleiss Kappa statistics was 0.601). This method presents as a possible means of accurately estimating matching quality and refining linkages in population level linkage studies. The sampling approach is especially important for large project linkages where the number of record pairs produced may be very large often running into millions.

Externalities of fuel cycles 'ExternE' project. Oil fuel cycle. Estimation of physical impacts and monetary valuation for priority impact pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Friedrich, R.; Krewitt, W.; Mayerhofer, P.; Trukenmueller, A.; Gressmann, A.; Runte, K.-H.; Kortum, G.; Weltschev, M.

1994-01-01

principal objectives: - to quantify the external costs and benefits of the major fuel cycles for electricity generation and conservation, using the best available methods and information; - to adopt a common framework for assessment of fuel cycles, in order that a fair comparison can be made between them, and - to make recommendations on areas in which further research is required in order that future estimates of damages can be made with greater confidence. Within the study the following fuel cycles for electricity generation will be assessed: coal, uranium, lignite, oil, gas, wind, photovoltaics, biomass, small scale hydroelectric projects and energy conservation. The project started by considering the coal and the nuclear fuel cycles. The methodological framework established during the work on these two fuel cycles now has to be modified and transferred to other fuel cycles to demonstrate the general applicability of the accounting framework and to guarantee a consistent analysis of various fuel cycles

Externalities of fuel cycles 'ExternE' project. Lignite fuel cycle. Estimation of physical impacts and monetary valuation for priority impact pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Friedrich, R.; Krewitt, W.; Mayerhofer, P.; Trukenmueller, A.; Gressmann, A.

1994-01-01

principal objectives: - to quantify the external costs and benefits of the major fuel cycles for electricity generation and conservation, using the best available methods and information, - to adopt a common framework for assessment of fuel cycles, in order that a fair comparison can be made between them, and - to make recommendations on areas in which further research is required in order that future estimates of damages can be made with greater confidence. Within the study the following fuel cycles for electricity generation will be assessed: coal, uranium, lignite, oil, gas, wind, photovoltaics, biomass, small scale hydroelectric projects and energy conservation. The project started by considering the coal and the nuclear fuel cycles. The methodological framework established during the work on these two fuel cycles now has to be modified and transferred to other fuel cycles to demonstrate the general applicability of the accounting framework and to guarantee a consistent analysis of various fuel cycles

Guideline to Estimate Decommissioning Costs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, Taesik; Kim, Younggook; Oh, Jaeyoung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

The primary objective of this work is to provide guidelines to estimate the decommissioning cost as well as the stakeholders with plausible information to understand the decommissioning activities in a reasonable manner, which eventually contribute to acquiring the public acceptance for the nuclear power industry. Although several cases of the decommissioning cost estimate have been made for a few commercial nuclear power plants, the different technical, site-specific and economic assumptions used make it difficult to interpret those cost estimates and compare them with that of a relevant plant. Trustworthy cost estimates are crucial to plan a safe and economic decommissioning project. The typical approach is to break down the decommissioning project into a series of discrete and measurable work activities. Although plant specific differences derived from the economic and technical assumptions make a licensee difficult to estimate reliable decommissioning costs, estimating decommissioning costs is the most crucial processes since it encompasses all the spectrum of activities from the planning to the final evaluation on whether a decommissioning project has successfully been preceded from the perspective of safety and economic points. Hence, it is clear that tenacious efforts should be needed to successfully perform the decommissioning project.

Decommissioning Cost Estimating -The ''Price'' Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manning, R.; Gilmour, J.

2002-01-01

Over the past 9 years UKAEA has developed a formalized approach to decommissioning cost estimating. The estimating methodology and computer-based application are known collectively as the PRICE system. At the heart of the system is a database (the knowledge base) which holds resource demand data on a comprehensive range of decommissioning activities. This data is used in conjunction with project specific information (the quantities of specific components) to produce decommissioning cost estimates. PRICE is a dynamic cost-estimating tool, which can satisfy both strategic planning and project management needs. With a relatively limited analysis a basic PRICE estimate can be produced and used for the purposes of strategic planning. This same estimate can be enhanced and improved, primarily by the improvement of detail, to support sanction expenditure proposals, and also as a tender assessment and project management tool. The paper will: describe the principles of the PRICE estimating system; report on the experiences of applying the system to a wide range of projects from contaminated car parks to nuclear reactors; provide information on the performance of the system in relation to historic estimates, tender bids, and outturn costs

Epidemiology and genetics of common mental disorders in the general population: the PEGASUS-Murcia project

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; Tormo, MJ; Vilagut, G; Alonso, J; Ruíz-Merino, G; Escámez, T; Salmerón, D; Júdez, J; Martínez, S; Navarro, C

2013-01-01

Background Multidisciplinary collaboration between clinicians, epidemiologists, neurogeneticists and statisticians on research projects has been encouraged to improve our knowledge of the complex mechanisms underlying the aetiology and burden of mental disorders. The PEGASUS-Murcia (Psychiatric Enquiry to General Population in Southeast Spain-Murcia) project was designed to assess the prevalence of common mental disorders and to identify the risk and protective factors, and it also included the collection of biological samples to study the gene–environmental interactions in the context of the World Mental Health Survey Initiative. Methods and analysis The PEGASUS-Murcia project is a new cross-sectional face-to-face interview survey based on a representative sample of non-institutionalised adults in the Region of Murcia (Mediterranean Southeast, Spain). Trained lay interviewers used the latest version of the computer-assisted personal interview of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI 3.0) for use in Spain, specifically adapted for the project. Two biological samples of buccal mucosal epithelium will be collected from each interviewed participant, one for DNA extraction for genomic and epigenomic analyses and the other to obtain mRNA for gene expression quantification. Several quality control procedures will be implemented to assure the highest reliability and validity of the data. This article describes the rationale, sampling methods and questionnaire content as well as the laboratory methodology. Ethics and dissemination Informed consent will be obtained from all participants and a Regional Ethics Research Committee has approved the protocol. Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed publications and presented at the national and the international conferences. Discussion Cross-sectional studies, which combine detailed personal information with biological data, offer new and exciting opportunities to study the gene�

FEATURES OF AN ESTIMATION OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS AT THE ENTERPRISES OF AVIATION INSTRUMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petr P. Dobrov

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The relevance of this study due to the fact that the current situation in Russia is complemented by the negative effects of market reforms in the economy and economic sanctions adopted against our country and in particular the different level companies. In view of this, to effectively manage the activities and the development of aviation instrument companies and enterprises of different ownership forms are highly relevant issues related to the assessment of investment projects. The general crisis that engulfed almost all industry in Russia, demanded the application of a new ideology of the organization and management of investment projects, as well as their assessment at the enterprises of aviation instrument. In Russia, began a new stage in the development of project management establishment of a domestic methodology, complex tools and training for professional project management on the basis of domestic achievements, global experience and creativity of its processing based on the actual conditions of our country. The need for the use of project management methodology in Russia is determined by two factors: the increasing complexity of projects and the organizations that operate them, and the fact that project management is widely used in countries with market economies. Projects at the enterprises of aviation instrument making and evaluation are characterized by complexity and uncertainty, a significant dependence on the dynamic environment, including socio-economic, political, financial, economic, legislative influence of both the state and competing companies. In this paper, a study of modern methods of evaluating investment projects at the enterprises of aviation instrument. Methodology. The methodological basis of this paper appeared comparative and economic-mathematical analysis methods. Results. As part of the presentation of the present article the author, it was found that the activity of modern companies is not linear and is

A critical review of the ESCAPE project for estimating long-term health effects of air pollution.

Science.gov (United States)

Lipfert, Frederick W

2017-02-01

The European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE) is a13-nation study of long-term health effects of air pollution based on subjects pooled from up to 22 cohorts that were intended for other purposes. Twenty-five papers have been published on associations of various health endpoints with long-term exposures to NOx, NO2, traffic indicators, PM10, PM2.5 and PM constituents including absorbance (elemental carbon). Seven additional ESCAPE papers found moderate correlations (R2=0.3-0.8) between measured air quality and estimates based on land-use regression that were used; personal exposures were not considered. I found no project summaries or comparisons across papers; here I conflate the 25 ESCAPE findings in the context of other recent European epidemiology studies. Because one ESCAPE cohort contributed about half of the subjects, I consider it and the other 18 cohorts separately to compare their contributions to the combined risk estimates. I emphasize PM2.5 and confirm the published hazard ratio of 1.14 (1.04-1.26) per 10μg/m3 for all-cause mortality. The ESCAPE papers found 16 statistically significant (p<0.05) risks among the125 pollutant-endpoint combinations; 4 each for PM2.5 and PM10, 1 for PM absorbance, 5 for NO2, and 2 for traffic. No PM constituent was consistently significant. No significant associations were reported for cardiovascular mortality; low birthrate was significant for all pollutants except PM absorbance. Based on associations with PM2.5, I find large differences between all-cause death estimates and the sum of specific-cause death estimates. Scatterplots of PM2.5 mortality risks by cause show no consistency across the 18 cohorts, ostensibly because of the relatively few subjects. Overall, I find the ESCAPE project inconclusive and I question whether the efforts required to estimate exposures for small cohorts were worthwhile. I suggest that detailed studies of the large cohort using historical exposures and additional

Selection of anchor values for human error probability estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buffardi, L.C.; Fleishman, E.A.; Allen, J.A.

1989-01-01

There is a need for more dependable information to assist in the prediction of human errors in nuclear power environments. The major objective of the current project is to establish guidelines for using error probabilities from other task settings to estimate errors in the nuclear environment. This involves: (1) identifying critical nuclear tasks, (2) discovering similar tasks in non-nuclear environments, (3) finding error data for non-nuclear tasks, and (4) establishing error-rate values for the nuclear tasks based on the non-nuclear data. A key feature is the application of a classification system to nuclear and non-nuclear tasks to evaluate their similarities and differences in order to provide a basis for generalizing human error estimates across tasks. During the first eight months of the project, several classification systems have been applied to a sample of nuclear tasks. They are discussed in terms of their potential for establishing task equivalence and transferability of human error rates across situations

Estimating cancer risk from outdoor concentrations of hazardous air pollutants in 1990

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woodruff, T.J.; Caldwell, J.; Cogliano, V.J.; Axelrad, D.A.

2000-03-01

A public health concern regarding hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) is their potential to cause cancer. It has been difficult to assess potential cancer risks from HAPs, due primarily to lack of ambient concentration data for the general population. The Environmental Protection Agency's Cumulative Exposure Project modeled 1990 outdoor concentrations of HAPs across the United States, which were combined with inhalation unit risk estimates to estimate the potential increase in excess cancer risk for individual carcinogenic HAPs. These were summed3d to provide an estimate of cancer risk from multiple HAPs. The analysis estimates a median excess cancer risk of 18 lifetime cancer cases per 100,000 people for all HAP concentrations. About 75% of estimated cancer risk was attributable to exposure to polycyclic organic matter, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, benzene, and chromium. Consideration of some specific uncertainties, including underestimation of ambient concentrations, combining upper 95% confidence bound potency estimates, and changes to potency estimates, found that cancer risk may be underestimated by 15% or overestimated by 40--50%. Other unanalyzed uncertainties could make these under- or overestimates larger. This analysis used 1990 estimates of concentrations and can be used to track progress toward reducing cancer risk to the general population.

Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) Using Multi-Optimization Algorithm as Sampling Method

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Z.

2015-12-01

For decades, distributed and lumped hydrological models have furthered our understanding of hydrological system. The development of hydrological simulation in large scale and high precision elaborated the spatial descriptions and hydrological behaviors. Meanwhile, the new trend is also followed by the increment of model complexity and number of parameters, which brings new challenges of uncertainty quantification. Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) has been widely used in uncertainty analysis for hydrological models referring to Monte Carlo method coupled with Bayesian estimation. However, the stochastic sampling method of prior parameters adopted by GLUE appears inefficient, especially in high dimensional parameter space. The heuristic optimization algorithms utilizing iterative evolution show better convergence speed and optimality-searching performance. In light of the features of heuristic optimization algorithms, this study adopted genetic algorithm, differential evolution, shuffled complex evolving algorithm to search the parameter space and obtain the parameter sets of large likelihoods. Based on the multi-algorithm sampling, hydrological model uncertainty analysis is conducted by the typical GLUE framework. To demonstrate the superiority of the new method, two hydrological models of different complexity are examined. The results shows the adaptive method tends to be efficient in sampling and effective in uncertainty analysis, providing an alternative path for uncertainty quantilization.

Financing of Chamera project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jain, A.K.; Chakraborty, D.K.

1994-01-01

Chamera Hydroelectric Project was selected by National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) as a pilot project for accelerated development of hydro-power in the country. This project was considered to have certain distinct specialties from different aspects in comparison with other projects. In the first place, the field investigation for the project was completed in a record time of only eight months by deploying the most modern techniques. Secondly, Chamera was the first NHPC project with external aid both technically and financially. The third and most important of all the specialties was in the planned reduction of construction period to 6 years from the original estimate of 8 years. Such reduction of gestation period was considered to be the direct outcome of modern method of management, monitoring and improved imported technology. The investment decision in the project was taken in April '84 with an estimated cost of energy at busbar 44.12 paise/unit exclusive of return on equity capital and royalty payable to the home state. The all inclusive rate of power was estimated 75.86 paise/unit. (author). 4 tabs

The Meth Project and Teen Meth Use: New Estimates from the National and State Youth Risk Behavior Surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, D Mark; Elsea, David

2015-12-01

In this note, we use data from the national and state Youth Risk Behavior Surveys for the period 1999 through 2011 to estimate the relationship between the Meth Project, an anti-methamphetamine advertising campaign, and meth use among high school students. During this period, a total of eight states adopted anti-meth advertising campaigns. After accounting for pre-existing downward trends in meth use, we find little evidence that the campaign curbed meth use in the full sample. We do find, however, some evidence that the Meth Project may have decreased meth use among White high school students. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Projective relativity, cosmology and gravitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arcidiacono, G.

1986-01-01

This book describes the latest applications of projective geometry to cosmology and gravitation. The contents of the book are; the Poincare group and Special Relativity, the thermodynamics and electromagnetism, general relativity, gravitation and cosmology, group theory and models of universe, the special projective relativity, the Fantappie group and Big-Bang cosmology, a new cosmological projective mechanics, the plasma physics and cosmology, the projective magnetohydrodynamics field, projective relativity and waves propagation, the generalizations of the gravitational field, the general projective relativity, the projective gravitational field, the De Sitter Universe and quantum physics, the conformal relativity and Newton gravitation

Estimation and control of droplet size and frequency in projected spray mode of a gas metal arc welding (GMAW) process.

Science.gov (United States)

Anzehaee, Mohammad Mousavi; Haeri, Mohammad

2011-07-01

New estimators are designed based on the modified force balance model to estimate the detaching droplet size, detached droplet size, and mean value of droplet detachment frequency in a gas metal arc welding process. The proper droplet size for the process to be in the projected spray transfer mode is determined based on the modified force balance model and the designed estimators. Finally, the droplet size and the melting rate are controlled using two proportional-integral (PI) controllers to achieve high weld quality by retaining the transfer mode and generating appropriate signals as inputs of the weld geometry control loop. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear adaptive control system design with asymptotically stable parameter estimation error

Science.gov (United States)

Mishkov, Rumen; Darmonski, Stanislav

2018-01-01

The paper presents a new general method for nonlinear adaptive system design with asymptotic stability of the parameter estimation error. The advantages of the approach include asymptotic unknown parameter estimation without persistent excitation and capability to directly control the estimates transient response time. The method proposed modifies the basic parameter estimation dynamics designed via a known nonlinear adaptive control approach. The modification is based on the generalised prediction error, a priori constraints with a hierarchical parameter projection algorithm, and the stable data accumulation concepts. The data accumulation principle is the main tool for achieving asymptotic unknown parameter estimation. It relies on the parametric identifiability system property introduced. Necessary and sufficient conditions for exponential stability of the data accumulation dynamics are derived. The approach is applied in a nonlinear adaptive speed tracking vector control of a three-phase induction motor.

Health disparities between lesbian, gay, and bisexual adults and the general population in South Korea: Rainbow Connection Project I

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Horim Yi

2017-10-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES This study aims to investigate health disparities between lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB adults and the general population in Korea, where there is low public acceptance of sexual minorities and a lack of research on the health of sexual minorities. METHODS The research team conducted a nationwide survey of 2,335 Korean LGB adults in 2016. Using the dataset, we estimated the age-standardized prevalence ratios (SPRs for poor self-rated health, musculoskeletal pain, depressive symptoms, suicidal behaviors, smoking, and hazardous drinking. We then compared the SPRs of the LGB adults and the general population which participated in three different nationally representative surveys in Korea. SPRs were estimated for each of the four groups (i.e., gay men, bisexual men, lesbians, and bisexual women. RESULTS Korean LGB adults exhibited a statistically significantly higher prevalence of depressive symptoms, suicidal ideation and attempts, and musculoskeletal pain than the general population. Lesbian and bisexual women had a higher risk of poor self-rated health and smoking than the general women population, whereas gay and bisexual men showed no differences with the general men population. Higher prevalence of hazardous drinking was observed among lesbians, gay men, and bisexual women compared to the general population, but was not observed in bisexual men. CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest that LGB adults have poorer health conditions compared to the general population in Korea. These results suggest that interventions are needed to address the health disparities of Korean LGB adults.

Health disparities between lesbian, gay, and bisexual adults and the general population in South Korea: Rainbow Connection Project I.

Science.gov (United States)

Yi, Horim; Lee, Hyemin; Park, Jooyoung; Choi, Bokyoung; Kim, Seung-Sup

2017-01-01

This study aims to investigate health disparities between lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) adults and the general population in Korea, where there is low public acceptance of sexual minorities and a lack of research on the health of sexual minorities. The research team conducted a nationwide survey of 2,335 Korean LGB adults in 2016. Using the dataset, we estimated the age-standardized prevalence ratios (SPRs) for poor self-rated health, musculoskeletal pain, depressive symptoms, suicidal behaviors, smoking, and hazardous drinking. We then compared the SPRs of the LGB adults and the general population which participated in three different nationally representative surveys in Korea. SPRs were estimated for each of the four groups (i.e., gay men, bisexual men, lesbians, and bisexual women). Korean LGB adults exhibited a statistically significantly higher prevalence of depressive symptoms, suicidal ideation and attempts, and musculoskeletal pain than the general population. Lesbian and bisexual women had a higher risk of poor self-rated health and smoking than the general women population, whereas gay and bisexual men showed no differences with the general men population. Higher prevalence of hazardous drinking was observed among lesbians, gay men, and bisexual women compared to the general population, but was not observed in bisexual men. The findings suggest that LGB adults have poorer health conditions compared to the general population in Korea. These results suggest that interventions are needed to address the health disparities of Korean LGB adults.

Seneca Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None, None

2012-11-30

of the designs would perform acceptably. Their general scope of work included development of detailed project construction schedules, capital cost and cash flow estimates for both CAES cycles, and development of detailed operational data, including fuel and compression energy requirements, to support dispatch modeling for the CAES cycles. The Dispatch Modeling Consultant selected for this project was Customized Energy Solutions (CES). Their general scope of work included development of wholesale electric and gas market price forecasts and development of a dispatch model specific to CAES technologies. Parsons Brinkerhoff Energy Storage Services (PBESS) was retained to develop an air storage cavern and well system design for the CAES project. Their general scope of work included development of a cavern design, solution mining plan, and air production well design, cost, and schedule estimates for the project. Detailed Front End Engineering Design (FEED) during Phase 1 of the project determined that CAES plant capital equipment costs were much greater than the $125.6- million originally estimated by EPRI for the project. The initial air storage cavern Design Basis was increased from a single five million cubic foot capacity cavern to three, five million cubic foot caverns with associated air production wells and piping. The result of this change in storage cavern Design Basis increased project capital costs significantly. In addition, the development time required to complete the three cavern system was estimated at approximately six years. This meant that the CAES plant would initially go into service with only one third of the required storage capacity and would not achieve full capability until after approximately five years of commercial operation. The market price forecasting and dispatch modeling completed by CES indicated that the CAES technologies would operate at only 10 to 20% capacity factors and the resulting overall project economics were not favorable for

Verification of functional a posteriori error estimates for obstacle problem in 1D

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Harasim, P.; Valdman, Jan

2013-01-01

Roč. 49, č. 5 (2013), s. 738-754 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-18652S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : obstacle problem * a posteriori error estimate * variational inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.563, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/MTR/valdman-0424082.pdf

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050. 2016 Ed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-01-01

Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication — currently in its thirty-sixth edition — containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050. RDS-1 starts with a summary of the situation of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2015. The data on nuclear power presented in Tables 1 and 2 are based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power Reactor Information System (PRIS). However, energy and electricity data for 2015 are estimated, as the latest information available from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2013. Population data originate from the World Population Prospects (2012 revision), published by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2015 values again are estimates. As in previous editions, projections of future energy and electricity demand and the role of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends. The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review. Many international, national and private organizations routinely engage in energy demand and supply projections, including projections for nuclear power. These projections are based on a multitude of different assumptions and aggregating procedures, making a straightforward comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences relate to such fundamental input assumptions as: • Economic growth; • Correlation of economic growth and energy use; • Technology performance and costs; • Energy resource availability and future fuel prices; •• Energy policy and physical, environmental and economic constraints

Outlook for Global Nuclear Power: Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gritsevskyi, A.

2016-01-01

Nuclear power's global expansion is projected to continue in the coming decades - albeit at a slowing pace - amid challenges including low fossil fuel prices, a sluggish world economy and the legacy of Japan's Fukushima Daiichi accident. Each year, the IAEA publishes projections of the world's nuclear power generating capacity in Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, now in its 35th edition.The latest projections point to slower growth in nuclear power, in keeping with the trend since the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident. The world's nuclear power generating capacity is projected to expand by 2.4 percent by 2030, according to the low projections, compared with 7.7 percent estimated in 2014. In the high case, generating capacity is estimated to grow by 68 percent by 2030, versus 88 percent forecast last year. Uncertainty related to energy policy, license renewals, shutdowns and future constructions accounts for the wide range.The estimates also factor in the likely future retirement of many of the world's 438 nuclear reactors currently in operation, more than half of which are over 30 years old. Despite the need to replace scores of retiring reactors, nuclear power is still set to maintain - and possibly increase - its role in the world's low-carbon energy mix. It's important to understand that these projections, while carefully derived, are not predictions.The estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends, whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review.(author).

Underestimation of Project Costs

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Harry W.

2015-01-01

Large projects almost always exceed their budgets. Estimating cost is difficult and estimated costs are usually too low. Three different reasons are suggested: bad luck, overoptimism, and deliberate underestimation. Project management can usually point to project difficulty and complexity, technical uncertainty, stakeholder conflicts, scope changes, unforeseen events, and other not really unpredictable bad luck. Project planning is usually over-optimistic, so the likelihood and impact of bad luck is systematically underestimated. Project plans reflect optimism and hope for success in a supposedly unique new effort rather than rational expectations based on historical data. Past project problems are claimed to be irrelevant because "This time it's different." Some bad luck is inevitable and reasonable optimism is understandable, but deliberate deception must be condemned. In a competitive environment, project planners and advocates often deliberately underestimate costs to help gain project approval and funding. Project benefits, cost savings, and probability of success are exaggerated and key risks ignored. Project advocates have incentives to distort information and conceal difficulties from project approvers. One naively suggested cure is more openness, honesty, and group adherence to shared overall goals. A more realistic alternative is threatening overrun projects with cancellation. Neither approach seems to solve the problem. A better method to avoid the delusions of over-optimism and the deceptions of biased advocacy is to base the project cost estimate on the actual costs of a large group of similar projects. Over optimism and deception can continue beyond the planning phase and into project execution. Hard milestones based on verified tests and demonstrations can provide a reality check.

Planning level assessment of greenhouse gas emissions for alternative transportation construction projects : carbon footprint estimator, phase II, volume I - GASCAP model.

Science.gov (United States)

2014-03-01

The GASCAP model was developed to provide a software tool for analysis of the life-cycle GHG : emissions associated with the construction and maintenance of transportation projects. This phase : of development included techniques for estimating emiss...

Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. Fettweis

2013-03-01

Full Text Available To estimate the sea level rise (SLR originating from changes in surface mass balance (SMB of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS, we present 21st century climate projections obtained with the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional, forced by output of three CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 general circulation models (GCMs. Our results indicate that in a warmer climate, mass gain from increased winter snowfall over the GrIS does not compensate mass loss through increased meltwater run-off in summer. Despite the large spread in the projected near-surface warming, all the MAR projections show similar non-linear increase of GrIS surface melt volume because no change is projected in the general atmospheric circulation over Greenland. By coarsely estimating the GrIS SMB changes from GCM output, we show that the uncertainty from the GCM-based forcing represents about half of the projected SMB changes. In 2100, the CMIP5 ensemble mean projects a GrIS SMB decrease equivalent to a mean SLR of +4 ± 2 cm and +9 ± 4 cm for the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. These estimates do not consider the positive melt–elevation feedback, although sensitivity experiments using perturbed ice sheet topographies consistent with the projected SMB changes demonstrate that this is a significant feedback, and highlight the importance of coupling regional climate models to an ice sheet model. Such a coupling will allow the assessment of future response of both surface processes and ice-dynamic changes to rising temperatures, as well as their mutual feedbacks.

Scoring the Icecap-a capability instrument. Estimation of a UK general population tariff.

Science.gov (United States)

Flynn, Terry N; Huynh, Elisabeth; Peters, Tim J; Al-Janabi, Hareth; Clemens, Sam; Moody, Alison; Coast, Joanna

2015-03-01

This paper reports the results of a best-worst scaling (BWS) study to value the Investigating Choice Experiments Capability Measure for Adults (ICECAP-A), a new capability measure among adults, in a UK setting. A main effects plan plus its foldover was used to estimate weights for each of the four levels of all five attributes. The BWS study was administered to 413 randomly sampled individuals, together with sociodemographic and other questions. Scale-adjusted latent class analyses identified two preference and two (variance) scale classes. Ability to characterize preference and scale heterogeneity was limited, but data quality was good, and the final model exhibited a high pseudo-r-squared. After adjusting for heterogeneity, a population tariff was estimated. This showed that 'attachment' and 'stability' each account for around 22% of the space, and 'autonomy', 'achievement' and 'enjoyment' account for around 18% each. Across all attributes, greater value was placed on the difference between the lowest levels of capability than between the highest. This tariff will enable ICECAP-A to be used in economic evaluation both within the field of health and across public policy generally. © 2013 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Explicit estimating equations for semiparametric generalized linear latent variable models

KAUST Repository

Ma, Yanyuan; Genton, Marc G.

2010-01-01

which is similar to that of a sufficient complete statistic, which enables us to simplify the estimating procedure and explicitly to formulate the semiparametric estimating equations. We further show that the explicit estimators have the usual root n

Rural water-supply and sanitation planning: The use of socioeconomic preconditions in project identification

Science.gov (United States)

Warner, Dennis B.

1984-02-01

Recognition of the socioeconomic preconditions for successful rural water-supply and sanitation projects in developing countries is the key to identifying a new project. Preconditions are the social, economic and technical characteristics defining the project environment. There are two basic types of preconditions: those existing at the time of the initial investigation and those induced by subsequent project activities. Successful project identification is dependent upon an accurate recognition of existing constraints and a carefully tailored package of complementary investments intended to overcome the constraints. This paper discusses the socioeconomic aspects of preconditions in the context of a five-step procedure for project identification. The procedure includes: (1) problem identification; (2) determination of socioeconomic status; (3) technology selection; (4) utilization of support conditions; and (5) benefit estimation. Although the establishment of specific preconditions should be based upon the types of projects likely to be implemented, the paper outlines a number of general relationships regarding favourable preconditions in water and sanitation planning. These relationships are used within the above five-step procedure to develop a set of general guidelines for the application of preconditions in the identification of rural water-supply and sanitation projects.

Application of demography to energy facility development projects. Working Paper No. 39

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krannich, R.S.; Stanfield, G.G.

1977-01-01

The emergence of concern regarding socioeconomic consequences of large-scale development projects has resulted in a growing literature directed as estimating the types and levels of various impact dimensions which can be expected to result in human communities experiencing such development. Among these dimensions, a focus on population change has been prevalent. Accurate demographic predictions may be viewed as critical for the adequate comprehension of and preparation for impacts deriving from projects such as energy facility developments. Unfortunately, the state of the art in projecting demographic consequences of energy projects has been generally inadequate. Several of the more influential prior methods for estimating local demographic effects of developing energy facilities are critiqued, although their specific prediction figures are not summarized. The studies reviewed were found to be of dubious practical utility, probably due in part to the failure of basic demography to provide a base of support for applied demographic research. This report sets forth recommendations for the development of a theoretical perspective which would more adequately serve the needs of practitioners attempting to predict local demographic effects of energy facility development

[Availability of physicians in Chile and its middle-term projection].

Science.gov (United States)

Goić, A

1994-02-01

The availability of active physicians in Chile and its 5 and 10 years projections were studied. The number of inhabitants was estimated using the 1992 National Population Census and the number of physicians, using the 1980 records of the Chilean College of Physicians (year in which enrollment was mandatory for all physicians). A 1.6% annual population growth rate and a 5% physician mortality rate was applied (slightly lower that the general population mortality rate). The annual retirement from professional practice was estimated in 0.5% and physicians over 70 years old were considered retired. According to these figures, in 1993 the population is 13,816,990 and there are 14,400 active physicians, a physician/inhabitant relationship of 1:960 (in 1980 it was 1:1,407). The estimated number agrees with that of the 1992 National Population Census and the 1993 income tax declarations. According to projections, in 1998 Chile will have 14,958,292 inhabitants, 16,770 physicians and an inhabitant/physician relationship of 1:921. The figures for year 2003 will be 16,193,867; 18,597 and 1:871 respectively. On the other hand, the study reveals a reduction in the number of admissions to medical schools and of graduated physicians and a reduction in the annual physician population growth rate from 5 to 2% (slightly higher than the general population growth rate). Depending on the economic growth estimations and the needs for medical attention for the next decade, the admission shares for medical schools should be revisited.

Web Project Management

OpenAIRE

Suralkar, Sunita; Joshi, Nilambari; Meshram, B B

2013-01-01

This paper describes about the need for Web project management, fundamentals of project management for web projects: what it is, why projects go wrong, and what's different about web projects. We also discuss Cost Estimation Techniques based on Size Metrics. Though Web project development is similar to traditional software development applications, the special characteristics of Web Application development requires adaption of many software engineering approaches or even development of comple...

The Boston Methane Project: Mapping Surface Emissions to Inform Atmospheric Estimation of Urban Methane Flux

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, N.; Crosson, E.; Down, A.; Hutyra, L.; Jackson, R. B.; McKain, K.; Rella, C.; Raciti, S. M.; Wofsy, S. C.

2012-12-01

Lost and unaccounted natural gas can amount to over 6% of Massachusetts' total annual greenhouse gas inventory (expressed as equivalent CO2 tonnage). An unknown portion of this loss is due to natural gas leaks in pipeline distribution systems. The objective of the Boston Methane Project is to estimate the overall leak rate from natural gas systems in metropolitan Boston, and to compare this flux with fluxes from the other primary methane emissions sources. Companion talks at this meeting describe the atmospheric measurement and modeling framework, and chemical and isotopic tracers that can partition total atmospheric methane flux into natural gas and non-natural gas components. This talk focuses on estimation of surface emissions that inform the atmospheric modeling and partitioning. These surface emissions include over 3,300 pipeline natural gas leaks in Boston. For the state of Massachusetts as a whole, the amount of natural gas reported as lost and unaccounted for by utility companies was greater than estimated landfill emissions by an order of magnitude. Moreover, these landfill emissions were overwhelmingly located outside of metro Boston, while gas leaks are concentrated in exactly the opposite pattern, increasing from suburban Boston toward the urban core. Work is in progress to estimate spatial distribution of methane emissions from wetlands and sewer systems. We conclude with a description of how these spatial data sets will be combined and represented for application in atmospheric modeling.

Integrated project risk management of nuclear power projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xiaohui; Xu Yuanhui

2001-01-01

The concept and the features of risks in nuclear power projects are introduced, and in terms of nuclear power projects' own features, the Nuclear Power Project Integrated Risk Management Model is presented. The identification, estimation, evaluation, response plan development, control of risks and the theoretical basis of risk management are discussed. The model has feedback and control functions in order to control and manage the risks dynamically

Engineer’s estimate reliability and statistical characteristics of bids

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fariborz M. Tehrani

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this report is to provide a methodology for examining bids and evaluating the performance of engineer’s estimates in capturing the true cost of projects. This study reviews the cost development for transportation projects in addition to two sources of uncertainties in a cost estimate, including modeling errors and inherent variability. Sample projects are highway maintenance projects with a similar scope of the work, size, and schedule. Statistical analysis of engineering estimates and bids examines the adaptability of statistical models for sample projects. Further, the variation of engineering cost estimates from inception to implementation has been presented and discussed for selected projects. Moreover, the applicability of extreme values theory is assessed for available data. The results indicate that the performance of engineer’s estimate is best evaluated based on trimmed average of bids, excluding discordant bids.

Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finch, S.M.; McMakin, A.H.

1991-04-01

The objective of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project is to estimate the radiation doses that populations could have received from nuclear operations at Hanford since 1944. The project is being managed and conducted by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under the direction of an independent Technical Steering Panel (TSP). The project is divided into the following technical tasks. These tasks correspond to the path radionuclides followed, from released to impact on humans (dose estimates): source terms; environmental transport; environmental monitoring data; demographics, agriculture, food habits; and, environmental pathways and dose estimates

Quantitative estimation of brain atrophy and function with PET and MRI two-dimensional projection images

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saito, Reiko; Uemura, Koji; Uchiyama, Akihiko; Toyama, Hinako; Ishii, Kenji; Senda, Michio

2001-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the extent of atrophy and the decline in brain function objectively and quantitatively. Two-dimensional (2D) projection images of three-dimensional (3D) transaxial images of positron emission tomography (PET) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were made by means of the Mollweide method which keeps the area of the brain surface. A correlation image was generated between 2D projection images of MRI and cerebral blood flow (CBF) or 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET images and the sulcus was extracted from the correlation image clustered by K-means method. Furthermore, the extent of atrophy was evaluated from the extracted sulcus on 2D-projection MRI and the cerebral cortical function such as blood flow or glucose metabolic rate was assessed in the cortex excluding sulcus on 2D-projection PET image, and then the relationship between the cerebral atrophy and function was evaluated. This method was applied to the two groups, the young and the aged normal subjects, and the relationship between the age and the rate of atrophy or the cerebral blood flow was investigated. This method was also applied to FDG-PET and MRI studies in the normal controls and in patients with corticobasal degeneration. The mean rate of atrophy in the aged group was found to be higher than that in the young. The mean value and the variance of the cerebral blood flow for the young are greater than those of the aged. The sulci were similarly extracted using either CBF or FDG PET images. The purposed method using 2-D projection images of MRI and PET is clinically useful for quantitative assessment of atrophic change and functional disorder of cerebral cortex. (author)

Estimation of the Source Apportionment of Phosphorus and Its Responses to Future Climate Changes Using Multi-Model Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Sha

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The eutrophication issue in the Yangtze Basin was considered, and the phosphorus loads from its tributary, the Modaoxi River, were estimated. The phosphorus flux and source apportionment of the Modaoxi River watershed were modeled and quantified, and their changes with respect to future projected climate scenarios were simulated with multiple model applications. The Regional Nutrient Management (ReNuMa model based on Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF was employed as a tool to model the hydrochemical processes of the watershed and thereby estimate the monthly streamflow and the phosphorus flux as well as its source apportionment. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG was used to predict future daily weather data through the statistical downscaling of the general circulation model (GCM outputs based on projected climate scenarios. The synthetic time series of daily precipitation and temperatures generated by LARS-WG were further used as input data for ReNuMa to estimate the responses of the watershed hydrochemical processes to future changed climate conditions. The results showed that both models could be successfully applied and that the future wetter and warmer climate trends would have generally positive impacts on the watershed phosphorus yields, with greater contributions coming from runoff. These results could provide valuable support for local water environmental management.

Generalized isothermic lattices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doliwa, Adam

2007-01-01

We study multi-dimensional quadrilateral lattices satisfying simultaneously two integrable constraints: a quadratic constraint and the projective Moutard constraint. When the lattice is two dimensional and the quadric under consideration is the Moebius sphere one obtains, after the stereographic projection, the discrete isothermic surfaces defined by Bobenko and Pinkall by an algebraic constraint imposed on the (complex) cross-ratio of the circular lattice. We derive the analogous condition for our generalized isothermic lattices using Steiner's projective structure of conics, and we present basic geometric constructions which encode integrability of the lattice. In particular, we introduce the Darboux transformation of the generalized isothermic lattice and we derive the corresponding Bianchi permutability principle. Finally, we study two-dimensional generalized isothermic lattices, in particular geometry of their initial boundary value problem

Spatial regression methods capture prediction uncertainty in species distribution model projections through time

Science.gov (United States)

Alan K. Swanson; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Andrew O. Finley; James H. Thorne; Michael K. Schwartz

2013-01-01

The uncertainty associated with species distribution model (SDM) projections is poorly characterized, despite its potential value to decision makers. Error estimates from most modelling techniques have been shown to be biased due to their failure to account for spatial autocorrelation (SAC) of residual error. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) have the ability to...

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050. 2013 Ed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication - currently in its thirty-third edition - containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050. RDS-1 starts with a summary of the situation of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2012. The data on nuclear power presented are based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA's power Reactor Information System (PRIS). However, energy and electricity data for 2012 are estimated, as the latest information available from the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2010 only. Population data originate from the world population prospects (2010 revision), published by the population Division of the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2012 values again are estimates. As in previous editions, projections of future energy and electricity demand and the role of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends. The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review. Many international, national and private organizations routinely engage in energy demand and supply projections, including nuclear power. These projections are based on a multitude of different assumptions and aggregating procedures, which make a straightforward comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences refer to such fundamental input assumptions as: - Economic growth; - Correlation of economic growth and energy use; - Technology performance and costs; - Energy resource availability and future fuel prices; - Energy policy and physical, environmental and economic constraints

Optimizing denominator data estimation through a multimodel approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ward Bryssinckx

2014-05-01

Full Text Available To assess the risk of (zoonotic disease transmission in developing countries, decision makers generally rely on distribution estimates of animals from survey records or projections of historical enumeration results. Given the high cost of large-scale surveys, the sample size is often restricted and the accuracy of estimates is therefore low, especially when spatial high-resolution is applied. This study explores possibilities of improving the accuracy of livestock distribution maps without additional samples using spatial modelling based on regression tree forest models, developed using subsets of the Uganda 2008 Livestock Census data, and several covariates. The accuracy of these spatial models as well as the accuracy of an ensemble of a spatial model and direct estimate was compared to direct estimates and “true” livestock figures based on the entire dataset. The new approach is shown to effectively increase the livestock estimate accuracy (median relative error decrease of 0.166-0.037 for total sample sizes of 80-1,600 animals, respectively. This outcome suggests that the accuracy levels obtained with direct estimates can indeed be achieved with lower sample sizes and the multimodel approach presented here, indicating a more efficient use of financial resources.

Forest height estimation from mountain forest areas using general model-based decomposition for polarimetric interferometric synthetic aperture radar images

Science.gov (United States)

Minh, Nghia Pham; Zou, Bin; Cai, Hongjun; Wang, Chengyi

2014-01-01

The estimation of forest parameters over mountain forest areas using polarimetric interferometric synthetic aperture radar (PolInSAR) images is one of the greatest interests in remote sensing applications. For mountain forest areas, scattering mechanisms are strongly affected by the ground topography variations. Most of the previous studies in modeling microwave backscattering signatures of forest area have been carried out over relatively flat areas. Therefore, a new algorithm for the forest height estimation from mountain forest areas using the general model-based decomposition (GMBD) for PolInSAR image is proposed. This algorithm enables the retrieval of not only the forest parameters, but also the magnitude associated with each mechanism. In addition, general double- and single-bounce scattering models are proposed to fit for the cross-polarization and off-diagonal term by separating their independent orientation angle, which remains unachieved in the previous model-based decompositions. The efficiency of the proposed approach is demonstrated with simulated data from PolSARProSim software and ALOS-PALSAR spaceborne PolInSAR datasets over the Kalimantan areas, Indonesia. Experimental results indicate that forest height could be effectively estimated by GMBD.

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050. 2012 Ed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication - currently in its thirty-second edition - containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050. RDS-1 starts with a summary of the situation of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2011. The data on nuclear power presented in Tables 1 and 2 are based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA's power Reactor Information System (pRIS). however, energy and electricity data for 2011 are estimated, as the latest information available from the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2009 only. population data originate from the world population prospects (2010 revision), published by the population Division of the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2011 values again are estimates. As in previous editions, projections of future energy and electricity demand and the role of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends. The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review. Many international, national and private organizations routinely engage in energy demand and supply projections, including nuclear power. These projections are based on a multitude of different assumptions and aggregating procedures, which make a straightforward comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences refer to such fundamental input assumptions as: - Economic growth; - Correlation of economic growth and energy use; -Technology performance and costs; - Energy resource availability and future fuel prices; - Energy policy and physical, environmental and economic constraints. The projections presented in this publication are based on a compromise between: - National projections supplied by each country for a recent OECD/NEA study; - Indicators of development

Choice of large projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, R

1978-08-01

Conventional cost/benefit or project analysis has generally not taken into account circumstances in which the project under consideration is large enough that its introduction to the economy would have significant general equilibrium effects. In this paper, rules are examined that would indicate whether such large projects should be accepted or rejected. The rules utilize information yielded by before-project and after-project equilibrium prices and production data. Rules are developed for the undistorted ''first-best'' case, the case in which the fixed costs of the project are covered by distortionary taxation, and for the case of projects producing public goods. 34 references.

Application of discriminant analysis and generalized distance measures to uranium exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beauchamp, J.J.; Begovich, C.L.; Kane, V.E.; Wolf, D.A.

1979-10-01

The National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) Project has as its goal estimation of the nation's uranium resources. It is possible to use discriminant analysis methods on hydrogeochemical data collected in the NURE Program to aid in formulating geochemical models which can be used to identify the anomalous regions necessary for resource estimation. Discriminant analysis methods have been applied to data from the Plainview, Texas Quadrangle which has approximately 850 groundwater samples with more than 40 quantitative measurements per sample. Discriminant analysis topics involving estimation of misclassification probabilities, variable selection, and robust discrimination are applied. A method using generalized distance measures is given which enables assigning samples to a background population or a mineralized population whose parameters were estimated from separate studies. Each topic is related to its relevance in identifying areas of possible interest to uranium exploration

Ice volume distribution and implications on runoff projections in a glacierized catchment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Gabbi

2012-12-01

Full Text Available A dense network of helicopter-based ground-penetrating radar (GPR measurements was used to determine the ice-thickness distribution in the Mauvoisin region. The comprehensive set of ice-thickness measurements was combined with an ice-thickness estimation approach for an accurate determination of the bedrock. A total ice volume of 3.69 ± 0.31 km³ and a maximum ice thickness of 290 m were found. The ice-thickness values were then employed as input for a combined glacio-hydrological model forced by most recent regional climate scenarios. This model provided glacier evolution and runoff projections for the period 2010–2100. Runoff projections of the measured initial ice volume distribution show an increase in annual runoff of 4% in the next two decades, followed by a persistent runoff decrease until 2100. Finally, we checked the influence of the ice-thickness distribution on runoff projections. Our analyses revealed that reliable estimates of the ice volume are essential for modelling future glacier and runoff evolution. Wrong estimations of the total ice volume might even lead to deviations of the predicted general runoff trend.

Verification of functional a posteriori error estimates for obstacle problem in 2D

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Harasim, P.; Valdman, Jan

2014-01-01

Roč. 50, č. 6 (2014), s. 978-1002 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-18652S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : obstacle problem * a posteriori error estimate * finite element method * variational inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.541, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/MTR/valdman-0441661.pdf

Estimation of expenses for low and intermediate level radioactive waste repository project in Croatia up to site license acquisition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schaller, A.; Lokner, V.; Subasic, D.

2003-01-01

The expenses needed for development of low- and intermediate level radioactive waste (LILW) repository project in Croatia include: (a) preliminary activities, (b) preparatory activities, and (c) preparing of environmental impact study. The first group of expenses are referring to the project leading activities, project plan updating, build-up of required infrastructure, preparing of licensing documentation, site investigations, data acquisition programme, pre-operational radio-ecological monitoring, modelling, safety analysis (first iteration) and public related activities. Preparatory activities are referring to purchasing of land for repository and preparatory activities for carrying out of on-site investigations, while third group of expenses are related to preparation and validation of Environmental impact study. It was found out that about 50 % of total expenses refer to build-up of infrastructure. Additional 25 % finances are related to radio-ecological monitoring, site investigations and development of calculations and models, while remaining 25 % of total estimated sum is expected to be spent for repository safety assessment, public relations, purchasing and preparing the on-site terrain for construction, etc. It was calculated 607 EUR per m3 of LILW to be needed up to site license acquisition. According to the world-wide practice, by extrapolating of additional expenses necessary for construction of the repository and acquisition of operational license, it comes out the cost of 1.723 EUR per m3 of LILW for shallow-ground and 2.412 EUR per m3 of LILW for tunnel repository. The estimated expenses for Croatia are within the span of expenses for the same purpose in the countries considered. Expected duration of the project performance up to acquisition of the site license is 4 years and 3 months. (author)

Fast estimation of defect profiles from the magnetic flux leakage signal based on a multi-power affine projection algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Wenhua; Shen, Xiaohui; Xu, Jun; Wang, Ping; Tian, Guiyun; Wu, Zhengyang

2014-09-04

Magnetic flux leakage (MFL) inspection is one of the most important and sensitive nondestructive testing approaches. For online MFL inspection of a long-range railway track or oil pipeline, a fast and effective defect profile estimating method based on a multi-power affine projection algorithm (MAPA) is proposed, where the depth of a sampling point is related with not only the MFL signals before it, but also the ones after it, and all of the sampling points related to one point appear as serials or multi-power. Defect profile estimation has two steps: regulating a weight vector in an MAPA filter and estimating a defect profile with the MAPA filter. Both simulation and experimental data are used to test the performance of the proposed method. The results demonstrate that the proposed method exhibits high speed while maintaining the estimated profiles clearly close to the desired ones in a noisy environment, thereby meeting the demand of accurate online inspection.

Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

2016-01-01

Lingering skepticism about climate change might be due in part to the way climate projections are perceived by members of the public. Variability between scientists' estimates might give the impression that scientists disagree about the fact of climate change rather than about details concerning the extent or timing. Providing uncertainty estimates might clarify that the variability is due in part to quantifiable uncertainty inherent in the prediction process, thereby increasing people's trust in climate projections. This hypothesis was tested in two experiments. Results suggest that including uncertainty estimates along with climate projections leads to an increase in participants' trust in the information. Analyses explored the roles of time, place, demographic differences (e.g., age, gender, education level, political party affiliation), and initial belief in climate change. Implications are discussed in terms of the potential benefit of adding uncertainty estimates to public climate projections. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Project management: a case of fixed price IS/IT projects. Analysis of projects by project scopes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miroslav Kral

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The paper provides an overview of major issues of IS / IT projects. Attention will be focused on projects that are implemented under a contract for a specified amount of work and fixed price. The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the project parameters in terms of the types of projects, and to confirm, or refuse, a hypothesis related to this. There is some evidence from the portfolio of projects that have been implemented by the international companies providing IT services. Regarding the localisation, CEE region was selected for our research. The outputs of the paper should be a contribution to managing IS/IT projects in IT service delivery organizations and for the support of innovative thinking about project management generally.

Real Hypersurfaces of Nonflat Complex Projective Planes Whose Jacobi Structure Operator Satisfies a Generalized Commutative Condition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Theocharis Theofanidis

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Real hypersurfaces satisfying the condition ϕl=lϕ(l=R(·,ξξ have been studied by many authors under at least one more condition, since the class of these hypersurfaces is quite tough to be classified. The aim of the present paper is the classification of real hypersurfaces in complex projective plane CP2 satisfying a generalization of ϕl=lϕ under an additional restriction on a specific function.

A comparison of dependence function estimators in multivariate extremes

KAUST Repository

Vettori, Sabrina; Huser, Raphaë l; Genton, Marc G.

2017-01-01

Various nonparametric and parametric estimators of extremal dependence have been proposed in the literature. Nonparametric methods commonly suffer from the curse of dimensionality and have been mostly implemented in extreme-value studies up to three dimensions, whereas parametric models can tackle higher-dimensional settings. In this paper, we assess, through a vast and systematic simulation study, the performance of classical and recently proposed estimators in multivariate settings. In particular, we first investigate the performance of nonparametric methods and then compare them with classical parametric approaches under symmetric and asymmetric dependence structures within the commonly used logistic family. We also explore two different ways to make nonparametric estimators satisfy the necessary dependence function shape constraints, finding a general improvement in estimator performance either (i) by substituting the estimator with its greatest convex minorant, developing a computational tool to implement this method for dimensions $$D\\ge 2$$D≥2 or (ii) by projecting the estimator onto a subspace of dependence functions satisfying such constraints and taking advantage of Bernstein–Bézier polynomials. Implementing the convex minorant method leads to better estimator performance as the dimensionality increases.

A comparison of dependence function estimators in multivariate extremes

KAUST Repository

Vettori, Sabrina

2017-05-11

Various nonparametric and parametric estimators of extremal dependence have been proposed in the literature. Nonparametric methods commonly suffer from the curse of dimensionality and have been mostly implemented in extreme-value studies up to three dimensions, whereas parametric models can tackle higher-dimensional settings. In this paper, we assess, through a vast and systematic simulation study, the performance of classical and recently proposed estimators in multivariate settings. In particular, we first investigate the performance of nonparametric methods and then compare them with classical parametric approaches under symmetric and asymmetric dependence structures within the commonly used logistic family. We also explore two different ways to make nonparametric estimators satisfy the necessary dependence function shape constraints, finding a general improvement in estimator performance either (i) by substituting the estimator with its greatest convex minorant, developing a computational tool to implement this method for dimensions $$D\\\\ge 2$$D≥2 or (ii) by projecting the estimator onto a subspace of dependence functions satisfying such constraints and taking advantage of Bernstein–Bézier polynomials. Implementing the convex minorant method leads to better estimator performance as the dimensionality increases.

Understanding the costs and schedule of hydroelectric projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merrow, E.W.; Schroeder, B.R.

1991-01-01

This paper is based on a study conducted for the World Bank which evaluated the feasibility of developing an empirically based ex ante project analysis system for hydroelectric projects. The system would be used to assess: the reasonableness of engineering-based cost and schedule estimates used for project appraisal and preliminary estimates used to select projects for appraisal; and the potential for cost growth and schedule slip. The system would help identify projects early in the project appraisal process that harbor significantly higher than normal risks of overrunning cost and schedule estimates

Modeling age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David J Sharrow

Full Text Available In a given population the age pattern of mortality is an important determinant of total number of deaths, age structure, and through effects on age structure, the number of births and thereby growth. Good mortality models exist for most populations except those experiencing generalized HIV epidemics and some developing country populations. The large number of deaths concentrated at very young and adult ages in HIV-affected populations produce a unique 'humped' age pattern of mortality that is not reproduced by any existing mortality models. Both burden of disease reporting and population projection methods require age-specific mortality rates to estimate numbers of deaths and produce plausible age structures. For countries with generalized HIV epidemics these estimates should take into account the future trajectory of HIV prevalence and its effects on age-specific mortality. In this paper we present a parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.The model represents a vector of age-specific mortality rates as the weighted sum of three independent age-varying components. We derive the age-varying components from a Singular Value Decomposition of the matrix of age-specific mortality rate schedules. The weights are modeled as a function of HIV prevalence and one of three possible sets of inputs: life expectancy at birth, a measure of child mortality, or child mortality with a measure of adult mortality. We calibrate the model with 320 five-year life tables for each sex from the World Population Prospects 2010 revision that come from the 40 countries of the world that have and are experiencing a generalized HIV epidemic. Cross validation shows that the model is able to outperform several existing model life table systems.We present a flexible, parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics. Combined with the outputs of existing epidemiological and

Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finch, S.M.; McMakin, A.H.

1992-06-01

The objective of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project is to estimate the radiation doses that individuals and populations could have received from nuclear operations at Hanford since 1944. The project is being managed and conducted by the Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories under contract with the Centers for Disease Control. The independent Technical Steering Panel (TSP) provides technical direction. The project is divided into the following technical tasks. These tasks correspond to the path radionuclides followed, from release to impact on humans (dose estimates): source terms; environmental transport; environmental monitoring data; demography, food consumption, and agriculture; environmental pathways and dose estimates

Reconstruction of limited-angle dual-energy CT using mutual learning and cross-estimation (MLCE)

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Huayu; Xing, Yuxiang

2016-03-01

Dual-energy CT (DECT) imaging has gained a lot of attenuation because of its capability to discriminate materials. We proposes a flexible DECT scan strategy which can be realized on a system with general X-ray sources and detectors. In order to lower dose and scanning time, our DECT acquires two projections data sets on two arcs of limited-angular coverage (one for each energy) respectively. Meanwhile, a certain number of rays from two data sets form conjugate sampling pairs. Our reconstruction method for such a DECT scan mainly tackles the consequent limited-angle problem. Using the idea of artificial neural network, we excavate the connection between projections at two different energies by constructing a relationship between the linear attenuation coefficient of the high energy and that of the low one. We use this relationship to cross-estimate missing projections and reconstruct attenuation images from an augmented data set including projections at views covered by itself (projections collected in scanning) and by the other energy (projections estimated) for each energy respectively. Validated by our numerical experiment on a dental phantom with rather complex structures, our DECT is effective in recovering small structures in severe limited-angle situations. This DECT scanning strategy can much broaden DECT design in reality.

Factors causing cost variation for constructing wastewater projects in Egypt

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Remon Fayek Aziz

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Cost is one of the major considerations throughout the project management life cycle and can be regarded as one of the most important parameters of a project and the driving force of project success. Despite its proven importance, it is common to see a construction project failing to achieve its objectives within the specific cost. Cost variation is a very frequent phenomenon and is almost associated with nearly constructing all wastewater projects. Maintaining steady cost projection on wastewater projects had been recently an issue of serious concern, both to the client and project contractors. Cost deviation from initial cost plan had been prevalent on construction sites. However, little or no effort has been made to curtail the phenomenon, this research work attempts to identify, investigate and rank factors perceived to affect cost variation in the Egyptian wastewater projects with respect to their relative importance so as to proffer possible ways of coping with this phenomenon. To achieve this objective, author invited practitioners and experts, comprising a statistically representative sample, to participate in a structured questionnaire survey. Brain storming was taken into consideration, through which a number of cost variation factors were identified for constructing wastewater projects. Totally 52 factors were short-listed to be made part of the questionnaire survey and the survey was conducted with experts and representatives from private, public and local general construction firms. The data were analyzed using Relative Importance Index, ranking and simple percentages. It was analytically discovered that factors such as: (1 Lowest bidding procurement method; (2 Additional work; (3 Bureaucracy in bidding/tendering method; (4 Wrong method of cost estimation; and (5 Funding problems were critical for causing cost variation, while (1 Inaccurate cost estimation; (2 Mode of financing and payment for completed work; (3 Unexpected ground

The 5th National Audit Project (NAP5) on accidental awareness during general anaesthesia: summary of main findings and risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Pandit, J J; Andrade, J; Bogod, D G; Hitchman, J M; Jonker, W R; Lucas, N; Mackay, J H; Nimmo, A F; O'Connor, K; O'Sullivan, E P; Paul, R G; Palmer, J H MacG; Plaat, F; Radcliffe, J J; Sury, M R J; Torevell, H E; Wang, M; Hainsworth, J; Cook, T M

2014-10-01

We present the main findings of the 5th National Audit Project on accidental awareness during general anaesthesia. Incidences were estimated using reports of accidental awareness as the numerator, and a parallel national anaesthetic activity survey to provide denominator data. The incidence of certain/probable and possible accidental awareness cases was ~1:19 600 anaesthetics (95% CI 1:16 700-23 450). However, there was considerable variation across subtypes of techniques or subspecialties. The incidence with neuromuscular blockade was ~1:8200 (1:7030-9700), and without it was ~1:135 900 (1:78 600-299 000). The cases of accidental awareness during general anaesthesia reported to 5th National Audit Project were overwhelmingly cases of unintended awareness during neuromuscular blockade. The incidence of accidental awareness during caesarean section was ~1:670 (1:380-1300). Two thirds (82, 66%) of cases of accidental awareness experiences arose in the dynamic phases of anaesthesia, namely induction of and emergence from anaesthesia. During induction of anaesthesia, contributory factors included: use of thiopental; rapid sequence induction; obesity; difficult airway management; neuromuscular blockade; and interruptions of anaesthetic delivery during movement from anaesthetic room to theatre. During emergence from anaesthesia, residual paralysis was perceived by patients as accidental awareness, and commonly related to a failure to ensure full return of motor capacity. One third (43, 33%) of accidental awareness events arose during the maintenance phase of anaesthesia, most due to problems at induction or towards the end of anaesthesia. Factors increasing the risk of accidental awareness included: female sex; age (younger adults, but not children); obesity; anaesthetist seniority (junior trainees); previous awareness; out-of-hours operating; emergencies; type of surgery (obstetric, cardiac, thoracic); and use of neuromuscular blockade. The following factors were

Parametric Estimation by Generalized Moment Methods for Extremes

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Fabián, Zdeněk

2008-01-01

Roč. 11, č. 4 (2008), s. 26-35 ISSN 1450-7196 R&D Projects: GA MŠk ME 949 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : heavy tails * transformation-based score Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Combined Precipitation Dataset

Science.gov (United States)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Arkin, Philip; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Gruber, Arnold; Janowiak, John; McNab, Alan; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo

1997-01-01

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has released the GPCP Version 1 Combined Precipitation Data Set, a global, monthly precipitation dataset covering the period July 1987 through December 1995. The primary product in the dataset is a merged analysis incorporating precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit -satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The dataset also contains the individual input fields, a combination of the microwave and infrared satellite estimates, and error estimates for each field. The data are provided on 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude global grids. Preliminary analyses show general agreement with prior studies of global precipitation and extends prior studies of El Nino-Southern Oscillation precipitation patterns. At the regional scale there are systematic differences with standard climatologies.

Executive summary and general conclusions of the rock sealing project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pusch, R.

1992-06-01

The Stripa Rock Sealing Project logically followed the two first Stripa research phases dealing with canister-embedment and plugging of excavations in repositories. The major activities in the third phase were: * Literature review and interviews for setting the state of art of rock fracture sealing. * Pilot field and lab testing applying a new effective 'dynamic' grouting technique. * Development of a general grout flow theory. * Investigation of physical properties and longevity of major candidate grouts. * Performance of 4 large-scale tests. The literature study showed that longevity aspects limited the number of potentially useful grout materials to smectitic clay and cement. The pilot testing showed that fine-grained grouts can be effectively injected in relatively fine fractures. The theoretical work led to a general grout flow theory valid both for grouting at a constant, static pressure with non-Newtonian material properties, and for 'dynamic' injection with superimposed oscillations, yielding Newtonian material behavior. The investigation of physical properties of candidate grouts with respect to hydraulic conductivity, shear strength, sensitivity to mechanical strain, as well as to chemical stability, showed that effective sealing is offered, and that any rock can have its bulk conductivity reduced to about 10 -10 m/s. The field tests comprised investigation of excavation-induced disturbance and attempts to seal disturbed rock, and in separate tests, grouting of deposition holes and a natural fine-fracture zone. Considerable disturbance of nearfield rock by blasting and stress changes, yielding an increase in axial hydraulic conductivity by 3 and 1 order of magnitude, respectively, was documented but various factors, primarily debris in the fractures, made grouting of blasted rock ineffective. Narrow fractures in deposition holes and in a natural fracture zone were sealed rather effectively. (au)

Scoring the Icecap-A Capability Instrument. Estimation of a UK General Population Tariff†

Science.gov (United States)

Flynn, Terry N; Huynh, Elisabeth; Peters, Tim J; Al-Janabi, Hareth; Clemens, Sam; Moody, Alison; Coast, Joanna

2015-01-01

This paper reports the results of a best–worst scaling (BWS) study to value the Investigating Choice Experiments Capability Measure for Adults (ICECAP-A), a new capability measure among adults, in a UK setting. A main effects plan plus its foldover was used to estimate weights for each of the four levels of all five attributes. The BWS study was administered to 413 randomly sampled individuals, together with sociodemographic and other questions. Scale-adjusted latent class analyses identified two preference and two (variance) scale classes. Ability to characterize preference and scale heterogeneity was limited, but data quality was good, and the final model exhibited a high pseudo-r-squared. After adjusting for heterogeneity, a population tariff was estimated. This showed that ‘attachment’ and ‘stability’ each account for around 22% of the space, and ‘autonomy’, ‘achievement’ and ‘enjoyment’ account for around 18% each. Across all attributes, greater value was placed on the difference between the lowest levels of capability than between the highest. This tariff will enable ICECAP-A to be used in economic evaluation both within the field of health and across public policy generally. © 2013 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:24254584

Attributing death to cancer: cause-specific survival estimation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mathew A

2002-10-01

Full Text Available Cancer survival estimation is an important part of assessing the overall strength of cancer care in a region. Generally, the death of a patient is taken as the end point in estimation of overall survival. When calculating the overall survival, the cause of death is not taken into account. With increasing demand for better survival of cancer patients it is important for clinicians and researchers to know about survival statistics due to disease of interest, i.e. net survival. It is also important to choose the best method for estimating net survival. Increase in the use of computer programmes has made it possible to carry out statistical analysis without guidance from a bio-statistician. This is of prime importance in third- world countries as there are a few trained bio-statisticians to guide clinicians and researchers. The present communication describes current methods used to estimate net survival such as cause-specific survival and relative survival. The limitation of estimation of cause-specific survival particularly in India and the usefulness of relative survival are discussed. The various sources for estimating cancer survival are also discussed. As survival-estimates are to be projected on to the population at large, it becomes important to measure the variation of the estimates, and thus confidence intervals are used. Rothman′s confidence interval gives the most satisfactory result for survival estimate.

Hydrogen Station Cost Estimates: Comparing Hydrogen Station Cost Calculator Results with other Recent Estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2013-09-01

This report compares hydrogen station cost estimates conveyed by expert stakeholders through the Hydrogen Station Cost Calculation (HSCC) to a select number of other cost estimates. These other cost estimates include projections based upon cost models and costs associated with recently funded stations.

A generalized muon trajectory estimation algorithm with energy loss for application to muon tomography

Science.gov (United States)

Chatzidakis, Stylianos; Liu, Zhengzhi; Hayward, Jason P.; Scaglione, John M.

2018-03-01

This work presents a generalized muon trajectory estimation algorithm to estimate the path of a muon in either uniform or nonuniform media. The use of cosmic ray muons in nuclear nonproliferation and safeguard verification applications has recently gained attention due to the non-intrusive and passive nature of the inspection, penetrating capabilities, as well as recent advances in detectors that measure position and direction of the individual muons before and after traversing the imaged object. However, muon image reconstruction techniques are limited in resolution due to low muon flux and the effects of multiple Coulomb scattering (MCS). Current reconstruction algorithms, e.g., point of closest approach (PoCA) or straight-line path (SLP), rely on overly simple assumptions for muon path estimation through the imaged object. For robust muon tomography, efficient and flexible physics-based algorithms are needed to model the MCS process and accurately estimate the most probable trajectory of a muon as it traverses an object. In the present work, the use of a Bayesian framework and a Gaussian approximation of MCS is explored for estimation of the most likely path of a cosmic ray muon traversing uniform or nonuniform media and undergoing MCS. The algorithm's precision is compared to Monte Carlo simulated muon trajectories. It was found that the algorithm is expected to be able to predict muon tracks to less than 1.5 mm root mean square (RMS) for 0.5 GeV muons and 0.25 mm RMS for 3 GeV muons, a 50% improvement compared to SLP and 15% improvement when compared to PoCA. Further, a 30% increase in useful muon flux was observed relative to PoCA. Muon track prediction improved for higher muon energies or smaller penetration depth where energy loss is not significant. The effect of energy loss due to ionization is investigated, and a linear energy loss relation that is easy to use is proposed.

Estimating Gender Wage Gaps

Science.gov (United States)

McDonald, Judith A.; Thornton, Robert J.

2011-01-01

Course research projects that use easy-to-access real-world data and that generate findings with which undergraduate students can readily identify are hard to find. The authors describe a project that requires students to estimate the current female-male earnings gap for new college graduates. The project also enables students to see to what…

Preliminary methodological proposal for estimating environmental flows in projects approved by the ministry of environment and sustainable development (MADS), Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinilla Agudelo, Gabriel A; Rodriguez Sandoval, Erasmo A; Camacho Botero, Luis A

2014-01-01

A methodological proposal for estimating environmental flows in large projects approved by Agencia Nacional de Licencias Ambientales (ANLA) in Colombian rivers was developed. The project is the result of an agreement between the MADS and the Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota (UNC). The proposed method begins with an evaluation of hydrological criteria, continues with a hydraulic and water quality validation, and follows with the determination of habitat integrity. This is an iterative process that compares conditions before and after the project construction and allows to obtain the magnitude of a monthly flow that, besides preserving the ecological functions of the river, guarantees the water uses downstream. Regarding to the biotic component, the proposal includes the establishment and monitoring of biotic integrity indices for four aquatic communities (periphyton, macro invertebrates, riparian vegetation, and fish). The effects that flow reduction may produce in the medium and long term can be assessed by these indices. We present the results of applying the methodology to several projects licensed by the MADS.

FY 1991 project plan for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project, Phase 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-02-01

Phase 1 of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project was designed to develop and demonstrate a method for estimating radiation doses people may have received from Hanford Site operations since 1944. The method researchers developed relied on a variety of measured and reconstructed data as input to a modular computer model that generates dose estimates and their uncertainties. As part of Phase 1, researchers used the reconstructed data and computer model to calculate preliminary dose estimates for populations in a limited geographical area and time period. Phase 2, now under way, is designed to evaluate the Phase 1 data and model and improve them to calculate more accurate and precise dose estimates. Phase 2 will also be used to obtain preliminary estimates of two categories of doses: for Native American tribes and for individuals included in the pilot phase of the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study (HTDS). TSP Directive 90-1 required HEDR staff to develop Phase 2 task plans for TSP approval. Draft task plans for Phase 2 were submitted to the TSP at the October 11--12, 1990 public meeting, and, after discussions of each activity and associated budget needs, the TSP directed HEDR staff to proceed with a slate of specific project activities for FY 1991 of Phase 2. This project plan contains detailed information about those activities. Phase 2 is expected to last 15--18 months. In mid-FY 1991, project activities and budget will be reevaluated to determine whether technical needs or priorities have changed. Separate from, but related to, this project plan, will be an integrated plan for the remainder of the project. HEDR staff will work with the TSP to map out a strategy that clearly describes ''end products'' for the project and the work necessary to complete them. This level of planning will provide a framework within which project decisions in Phases 2, 3, and 4 can be made

Developing a general practice library: a collaborative project between a GP and librarian.

Science.gov (United States)

Pearson, D; Rossall, H

2001-12-01

The authors report on a self-completed questionnaire study from a North Yorkshire based general practice regarding the information needs of its clinicians. The work was carried out with a particular focus on the practice library, and the findings identified that a new approach to maintaining and developing the library was needed. The literature regarding the information needs of primary care clinicians and the role of practice libraries is considered, and compared to those of the clinicians at the practice. Discussion follows on how a collaborative project was set up between the practice and a librarian based at the local NHS Trust library in order to improve the existing practice library. Difficulties encountered and issues unique to the project are explored, including training implications presented by the implementation of electronic resources. Marketing activities implemented are discussed, how the library will operate in its new capacity, and how ongoing support and maintenance of the library will be carried out. It is concluded that although scepticism still exists regarding librarian involvement in practice libraries, collaboration between clinicians and librarians is an effective approach to the successful development and maintenance of a practice library, and recommendations are therefore made for similar collaborative work.

Prague’s Sewerage System in the 1930’ and the General Sewerage Project (1933–1936

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Drnek

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Prague’s sewerage system was built at the end of the era of the monarchy in the united town that Prague was transformed into. The system was soon overloaded, and was not able to remove all the sewage produced by the citizens.To deal with this hygienic threat, the city council and the management of the wastewater services undertook several actions to build a new system or improve the existing system. The most ambitious and extensive measure was the general project carried out between 1933 and 1936.The project was invented to resolve the problem once and for all by introducing new ideas and cut out the problem of placing a new sewage plant instead of the old one. For the present-day observer it also offers a range of spectacular and interesting ideas on urban wastewater treatment.

Estimating and localizing the algebraic and total numerical errors using flux reconstructions

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Papež, Jan; Strakoš, Z.; Vohralík, M.

2018-01-01

Roč. 138, č. 3 (2018), s. 681-721 ISSN 0029-599X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-06684S Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) LL1202 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : numerical solution of partial differential equations * finite element method * a posteriori error estimation * algebraic error * discretization error * stopping criteria * spatial distribution of the error Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 2.152, year: 2016

Generalized projective chaos synchronization of gyroscope systems subjected to dead-zone nonlinear inputs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yau, H.-T.

2008-01-01

This Letter presents a robust control scheme to generalized projective synchronization between two identical two-degrees-of-freedom heavy symmetric gyroscopes with dead zone nonlinear inputs. Because of the nonlinear terms of the gyroscope system, the system exhibits complex and chaotic motions. By the Lyapunov stability theory with control terms, two suitable sliding surfaces are proposed to ensure the stability of the controlled closed-loop system in sliding mode. Then, two sliding mode controllers (SMC) are designed to guarantee the hitting of the sliding surfaces even when the control inputs contain dead-zone nonlinearity. This method allows us to arbitrarily direct the scaling factor onto a desired value. Numerical simulations show that this method works very well for the proposed controller

Cost estimates for near-term depolyment of advanced traffic management systems. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stevens, S.S.; Chin, S.M.

1993-02-15

The objective of this study is to provide cost est engineering, design, installation, operation and maintenance of Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS) in the largest 75 metropolitan areas in the United States. This report gives estimates for deployment costs for ATMS in the next five years, subject to the qualifications and caveats set out in following paragraphs. The report considers infrastructure components required to realize fully a functional ATMS over each of two highway networks (as discussed in the Section describing our general assumptions) under each of the four architectures identified in the MITRE Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems (IVHS) Architecture studies. The architectures are summarized in this report in Table 2. Estimates are given for eight combinations of highway networks and architectures. We estimate that it will cost between $8.5 Billion (minimal network) and $26 Billion (augmented network) to proceed immediately with deployment of ATMS in the largest 75 metropolitan areas. Costs are given in 1992 dollars, and are not adjusted for future inflation. Our estimates are based partially on completed project costs, which have been adjusted to 1992 dollars. We assume that a particular architecture will be chosen; projected costs are broken by architecture.

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy optimization of wind farm project net profit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Petković, Dalibor; Ćojbašić, Žarko; Nikolić, Vlastimir; Anuar, Nor Badrul; Mohd Shuib, Nor Liyana; Mat Kiah, Miss Laiha; Akib, Shatirah

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Analyzing of wind farm project investment. • Net present value (NPV) maximization of the wind farm project. • Adaptive neuro-fuzzy (ANFIS) optimization of the number of wind turbines to maximize NPV. • The impact of the variation in the wind farm parameters. • Adaptive neuro fuzzy application. - Abstract: A wind power plant which consists of a group of wind turbines at a specific location is also known as wind farm. To maximize the wind farm net profit, the number of turbines installed in the wind farm should be different in depend on wind farm project investment parameters. In this paper, in order to achieve the maximal net profit of a wind farm, an intelligent optimization scheme based on the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is applied. As the net profit measures, net present value (NPV) and interest rate of return (IRR) are used. The NPV and IRR are two of the most important criteria for project investment estimating. The general approach in determining the accept/reject/stay in different decision for a project via NPV and IRR is to treat the cash flows as known with certainty. However, even small deviations from the predetermined values may easily invalidate the decision. In the proposed model the ANFIS estimator adjusts the number of turbines installed in the wind farm, for operating at the highest net profit point. The performance of proposed optimizer is confirmed by simulation results. Some outstanding properties of this new estimator are online implementation capability, structural simplicity and its robustness against any changes in wind farm parameters. Based on the simulation results, the effectiveness of the proposed optimization strategy is verified

Research 0n Incentive Mechanism of General Contractor and Subcontractors Dynamic Alliance in Construction Project Based on Team Cooperation

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Honglian; Sun, Aihua; Liu, Quanru; Chen, Zhiyi

2018-03-01

It is the key of motivating sub-contractors working hard and mutual cooperation, ensuring implementation overall goal of the project that to design rational incentive mechanism for general contractor. Based on the principal-agency theory, the subcontractor efforts is divided into two parts, one for individual efforts, another helping other subcontractors, team Cooperation incentive models of multiple subcontractors are set up, incentive schemes and intensities are also given. The results show that the general contractor may provide individual and team motivation incentives when subcontractors working independently, not affecting each other in time and space; otherwise, the general contractor may only provide individual incentive to entice teams collaboration between subcontractors and helping each other. The conclusions can provide a reference for the subcontract design of general and sub-contractor dynamic alliances.

Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Simonsen, Lone; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Lustig, Roger; Taylor, Robert J; Fleming, Douglas M; Kroneman, Madelon; Van Kerkhove, Maria D; Mounts, Anthony W; Paget, W John

2013-11-01

Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005-2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%-85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000-249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010-2012). We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Abbreviated report of the critical analysis of the spent nuclear fuel project's activity-based cost estimate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Warren, R.N.

1998-01-01

In 1997, the SNFP developed a baseline change request (BCR) and submitted it to DOE-RL for approval. The schedule was formally evaluated to have a 19% probability of success [Williams, 1998]. In December 1997, DOE-RL Manager John Wagoner approved the BCR contingent upon a subsequent independent review of the new baseline. The SNFP took several actions during the first quarter of 1998 to prepare for the independent review. The project developed the Estimating Requirements and Implementation Guide [DESH, 1998] and trained cost account managers (CAMS) and other personnel involved in the estimating process in activity-based cost (ABC) estimating techniques. The SNFP then applied ABC estimating techniques to develop the basis for the December Baseline (DB) and documented that basis in Basis of Estimate (BOE) books. These BOEs were provided to DOE in April 1998. DOE commissioned Professional Analysis, Inc. (PAI) to perform a critical analysis (CA) of the DB. PAI's review formally began on April 13. PAI performed the CA, provided three sets of findings to the SNFP contractor, and initiated reconciliation meetings. During the course of PAI's review, DOE directed the SNFP to develop a new baseline with a higher probability of success. The contractor transmitted the new baseline, which is referred to as the High Probability Baseline (HPB), to DOE on April 15, 1998 [Williams, 1998]. The HPB was estimated to approach a 90% confidence level on the start of fuel movement [Williams, 1998]. This high probability resulted in an increased cost and a schedule extension. To implement the new baseline, the contractor initiated 26 BCRs with supporting BOES. PAI's scope was revised on April 28 to add reviewing the HPB and the associated BCRs and BOES

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050. 2014 Ed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-01-01

Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication — currently in its thirty-fourth edition — containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050. RDS-1 starts with a summary of the situation of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2013. The data on nuclear power presented in Tables 1 and 2 are based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power Reactor Information System (PRIS). However, energy and electricity data for 2013 are estimated, as the latest information available from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2011. Population data originate from the World Population Prospects (2010 revision), published by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2013 values again are estimates. As in previous editions, projections of future energy and electricity demand and the role of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends. The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review. Many international, national and private organizations routinely engage in energy demand and supply projections, including nuclear power. These projections are based on a multitude of different assumptions and aggregating procedures, making a straightforward comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences relate to such fundamental input assumptions as: • Economic growth; • Correlation of economic growth and energy use; • Technology performance and costs; • Energy resource availability and future fuel prices; • Energy policy and physical, environmental and economic constraints

The Danish Rejsekortet (Smart Card for Public Transportation); Project Governance for Failure or Success?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harboe, Peter Georg; Riis, Eva

The authors examine a project regarded as a major failure in Danish public investments: The Smart Card for Public Transportation whose introduction was delayed for 9 years with an estimated cost overrun of 125 million EURO. After 3 years of operation, the Smart Card system only covers seven...... of the nine Danish regions and the discussion about giving up the system is continuing. The authors explore the overall conditions set up for these types of projects in the project governance - how project governance conditions a major public IT project and forms the success evaluation. The focus...... is on the whole cycle from project initiation to long-term use of the project results. Data collection is through documentation as governmental reports and evaluations, for example (Rigsrevisionen, 2011; The Comptroller and Auditor General, 2006; Transport Committee, 2011)and semi-structured interviews...

The Danish Rejsekortet ( Smart Card for Public Transportation ): Project Governance for Failure or Success ?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harboe, Peter Georg; Riis, Eva

The authors examine a project regarded as a major failure in Danish public investments: The Smart Card for Public Transportation whose introduction was delayed for 9 years with an estimated cost overrun of 125 million EURO. After 3 years of operation, the Smart Card system only covers seven...... of the nine Danish regions and the discussion about giving up the system is continuing. The authors explore the overall conditions set up for these types of projects in the project governance - how project governance conditions a major public IT project and forms the success evaluation. The focus...... is on the whole cycle from project initiation to long-term use of the project results. Data collection is through documentation as governmental reports and evaluations, for example (Rigsrevisionen, 2011; The Comptroller and Auditor General, 2006; Transport Committee, 2011)and semi-structured interviews...

Cost estimation tools in Germany and the UK. Comparison of cost estimates and actual costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfeifer, W.; Gordelier, S.; Drake, V.

2005-01-01

Full text: Accurate cost estimation for future decommissioning projects is a matter of considerable importance, especially for ensuring that sufficient funds will be available at the time of project implementation. This paper looks at the experience of cost estimation and real implementation outcomes from two countries, Germany and the UK, and draws lessons for the future. In Germany, cost estimates for the decommissioning of power reactors are updated every two years. For this purpose, the STILLKO program of the NIS Company is used. So far, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe has successfully decommissioned two prototype reactor facilities. Re-cultivation of the premises has already been completed. At the moment, the activated components of the multi-purpose research reactor (MZFR), the first pressurized water reactor in Germany that was moderated and cooled with heavy water, and of the prototype fast breeder reactor (KNK) are being dismantled remotely. Consequently, vast experience exists in particular for the updating of total costs on the basis of actually incurred expenses. The further the dismantling work proceeds, the more reliable is the total cost estimate. Here, the development of the estimated MZFR decommissioning costs shall be presented and compared with the estimates obtained for a German reference PWR-type power reactor of 1200 MW. In this way: - common features of the prototype reactor and power reactor shall be emphasized, - several parameters leading to an increase in the estimated costs shall be highlighted, - cost risks shall be outlined with the remote dismantling of the reactor pressure vessel serving as an example, - calculation parameters shall be presented, and - recommendations shall be made for a consistent estimation of costs. The United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) has a major programme for the environmental remediation of its former research and development sites at Dounreay, Windscale, Harwell and Winfrith together with the need to

23 CFR 710.301 - General.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 23 Highways 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false General. 710.301 Section 710.301 Highways FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION RIGHT-OF-WAY AND ENVIRONMENT RIGHT-OF-WAY AND REAL ESTATE Project Development § 710.301 General. The project development process typically follows a...

Practitioner's knowledge representation a pathway to improve software effort estimation

CERN Document Server

Mendes, Emilia

2014-01-01

The main goal of this book is to help organizations improve their effort estimates and effort estimation processes by providing a step-by-step methodology that takes them through the creation and validation of models that are based on their own knowledge and experience. Such models, once validated, can then be used to obtain predictions, carry out risk analyses, enhance their estimation processes for new projects and generally advance them as learning organizations.Emilia Mendes presents the Expert-Based Knowledge Engineering of Bayesian Networks (EKEBNs) methodology, which she has used and adapted during the course of several industry collaborations with different companies world-wide over more than 6 years. The book itself consists of two major parts: first, the methodology's foundations in knowledge management, effort estimation (with special emphasis on the intricacies of software and Web development) and Bayesian networks are detailed; then six industry case studies are presented which illustrate the pra...

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2030. 2009 Ed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)