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Sample records for project wepp model

  1. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

    2011-01-01

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltration, runoff, ET) component, which subsequently impacts the rest of the...

  2. Incorporating groundwater flow into the WEPP model

    Science.gov (United States)

    William Elliot; Erin Brooks; Tim Link; Sue Miller

    2010-01-01

    The water erosion prediction project (WEPP) model is a physically-based hydrology and erosion model. In recent years, the hydrology prediction within the model has been improved for forest watershed modeling by incorporating shallow lateral flow into watershed runoff prediction. This has greatly improved WEPP's hydrologic performance on small watersheds with...

  3. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

    2013-01-01

    At the hillslope profile and/or field scale, a simple Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is available to easily specify the slope, soil, and management inputs for application of the USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Likewise, basic small watershed configurations of a few hillslopes and channels can be created and simulated with this GUI. However,...

  4. Watershed-scale evaluation of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model in the Lake Tahoe basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin S. Brooks; Mariana Dobre; William J. Elliot; Joan Q. Wu; Jan Boll

    2016-01-01

    Forest managers need methods to evaluate the impacts of management at the watershed scale. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) has the ability to model disturbed forested hillslopes, but has difficulty addressing some of the critical processes that are important at a watershed scale, including baseflow and water yield. In order to apply WEPP to...

  5. Adapting the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for forest applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuhui Dun; Joan Q. Wu; William J. Elliot; Peter R. Robichaud; Dennis C. Flanagan; James R. Frankenberger; Robert E. Brown; Arthur C. Xu

    2009-01-01

    There has been an increasing public concern over forest stream pollution by excessive sedimentation due to natural or human disturbances. Adequate erosion simulation tools are needed for sound management of forest resources. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) watershed model has proved useful in forest applications where Hortonian flow is the major form of...

  6. Fuels planning: science synthesis and integration; environmental consequences fact sheet 12: Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Fuel Management (FuMe) tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    William Elliot; David Hall

    2005-01-01

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Fuel Management (FuMe) tool was developed to estimate sediment generated by fuel management activities. WEPP FuMe estimates sediment generated for 12 fuel-related conditions from a single input. This fact sheet identifies the intended users and uses, required inputs, what the model does, and tells the user how to obtain the...

  7. WEPP and ANN models for simulating soil loss and runoff in a semi-arid Mediterranean region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albaradeyia, Issa; Hani, Azzedine; Shahrour, Isam

    2011-09-01

    This paper presents the use of both the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) and the artificial neural network (ANN) for the prediction of runoff and soil loss in the central highland mountainous of the Palestinian territories. Analyses show that the soil erosion is highly dependent on both the rainfall depth and the rainfall event duration rather than on the rainfall intensity as mostly mentioned in the literature. The results obtained from the WEPP model for the soil loss and runoff disagree with the field data. The WEPP underestimates both the runoff and soil loss. Analyses conducted with the ANN agree well with the observation. In addition, the global network models developed using the data of all the land use type show a relatively unbiased estimation for both runoff and soil loss. The study showed that the ANN model could be used as a management tool for predicting runoff and soil loss.

  8. Comparison of WEPP and APEX runoff and erosion prediction at field scale in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) and the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) are process-based models that can predict spatial and temporal distributions of erosion for hillslopes and watersheds. This study applies the WEPP model to predict runoff and erosion for a 35-ha fie...

  9. Development of a GIS interface for WEPP Model application to Great Lakes forested watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. R. Frankenberger; S. Dun; D. C. Flanagan; J. Q. Wu; W. J. Elliot

    2011-01-01

    This presentation will highlight efforts on development of a new online WEPP GIS interface, targeted toward application in forested regions bordering the Great Lakes. The key components and algorithms of the online GIS system will be outlined. The general procedures used to provide input to the WEPP model and to display model output will be demonstrated.

  10. Modeling Fate and Transport of Rotavirus in Surface Flow by Integrating WEPP and a Pathogen Transport Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattarai, R.; Kalita, P. K.; Davidson, P. C.; Kuhlenschmidt, M. S.

    2012-12-01

    More than 3.5 million people die each year from a water related diseases in this world. Every 20 seconds, a child dies from a water-related illness. Even in a developed country like the United States, there have been at least 1870 outbreaks associated with drinking water during the period of 1920 to 2002, causing 883,806 illnesses. Most of these outbreaks are resulted due to the presence of microbial pathogens in drinking water. Rotavirus infection has been recognized as the most common cause of diarrhea in young children throughout the world. Laboratory experiments conducted at the University of Illinois have demonstrated that recovery of rotavirus has been significantly affected by climatic and soil-surface conditions like slope, soil types, and ground cover. The objective of this study is to simulate the fate and transport of Rotavirus in overland and near-surface flow using a process-based model. In order to capture the dynamics of sediment-bound pathogens, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) is coupled with the pathogen transport model. Transport of pathogens in overland flow can be simulated mathematically by including terms for the concentration of the pathogens in the liquid phase (in suspension or free-floating) and the solid phase (adsorbed to the fine solid particles like clay and silt). Advection, adsorption, and decay processes are considered. The mass balance equations are solved using numerical technique to predict spatial and temporal changes in pathogen concentrations in two phases. Outputs from WEPP simulations (flow velocity, depth, saturated conductivity and the soil particle fraction exiting in flow) are transferred as input for the pathogen transport model. Three soil types and three different surface cover conditions have been used in the experimental investigations. Results from these conditions have been used in calibrating and validating the simulation results. Bare surface conditions have produced very good agreement between

  11. Modifying WEPP to improve streamflow simulation in a Pacific Northwest watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. Srivastava; M. Dobre; J. Q. Wu; W. J. Elliot; E. A. Bruner; S. Dun; E. S. Brooks; I. S. Miller

    2013-01-01

    The assessment of water yield from hillslopes into streams is critical in managing water supply and aquatic habitat. Streamflow is typically composed of surface runoff, subsurface lateral flow, and groundwater baseflow; baseflow sustains the stream during the dry season. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model simulates surface runoff, subsurface lateral flow...

  12. Soil Loss in Samaru Zaria Nigeria: A Comparison of Wepp and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Soil erosion data generated while estimating soil loss in Samaru, Zaria using the EUROSEM model were used as input parameters for the prediction of soil loss in the same catchment area using the WEPP erosion model. A comparative analysis of both models for soil loss prediction showed that WEPP performed better for ...

  13. Evaluación del modelo WEPP para predecir la erosión hídrica en pastizales semiáridos del noreste de la Patagonia Evaluation of the WEPP model to predict soil erosion in northeastern Patagonian rangelands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo P Chartier

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Los modelos matemáticos son herramientas útiles para la predicción de las pérdidas de suelo por erosión hídrica. El desarrollo reciente del modelo WEPP y su utilización para evaluar los riesgos de erosión en pastizales naturales ha significado un avance interesante en el campo de la erosión y la conservación de suelos de estos ecosistemas. En este trabajo examinamos la eficiencia del modelo WEPP para predecir los procesos hidrológicos y de erosión del suelo en los pastizales naturales semiáridos del noreste de la provincia de Chubut. Se identificaron tres comunidades de plantas ubicadas a lo largo de un gradiente de degradación del suelo: estepa herbácea con arbustos aislados (EH, estepa herbáceo-arbustiva (EHA y estepa arbustiva degradada (EA. En cada una de estas comunidades se aplicó una lluvia simulada (100 mm h-1 durante 30 min sobre parcelas de 1 m² (0,6 x 1,67 m y se colectó el escurrimiento y los sedimentos totales. A partir de los datos de la condición superficial de cada parcela se estimó el escurrimiento y la producción de sedimentos mediante el modelo WEPP. En este trabajo se observó una baja eficiencia del modelo WEPP para predecir el escurrimiento (Eficiencia, E = 0,14 y la erosión del suelo (E = -0,93. La predicción del escurrimiento y pérdida de suelo del modelo WEPP mostró mayor sensibilidad a cambios en los parámetros de lluvia y pendiente del terreno y una sensibilidad moderada a cambios en la cobertura, textura, erodabilidad del suelo y conductividad hidráulica efectiva. El escurrimiento y la producción de sedimentos estimados por WEPP fueron significativamente diferentes en las distintas comunidades de plantas (p Mathematical models are useful tools to predict soil loss by water erosion. The recent development of the WEPP model and its use in assessing the risks of erosion in rangelands has led to significant advances in the field of erosion and soil conservation of these ecosystems. In this

  14. BASINS and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This draft report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools. The report presents a series of short case studies designed to illustrate the capabilities of these tools for conducting scenario based assessments of the potential future effects of climate change on water resources. This report presents a series of short, illustrative case studies using the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools.

  15. [Anti-erosion effect of hedgerows in hillside croplands of Danjiangkou based on the evaluation with water erosion prediction project (WEPP) model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Qin-xue; Liu, Zhang-yong; Yao, Gui-zhi; Li, Ben-zhou

    2010-09-01

    Based on the data of field experiments on the hillside croplands of Danjiangkou, Hubei Province of China, the input files of crop characters, management measures, slope gradient and length, and soil properties for running WEPP model (Hillslope version) were established. Combining with the local weather data, a simulation study with the model was made on the runoff and soil loss of the croplands protected by four kinds of hedgerows (Amorpha fruticosa, Lonicera japonica, Hemerocallis fulva, and Poa sphondylodes) in Danjiangkou area. The resulted showed that WEPP model could accurately simulate the anti-erosion effect of hedgerows in hillside farmlands in the study area. Using this model not only reduced test number, but also saved time and effort, being able to provide scientific basis for the popularization and application of hedgerows. Among the four hedgerows, Amorpha fruticosa had the best anti-erosion effect. According to the simulation, the optimal planting density of A. fruticosa hedgerows in the farmlands was 1 m x 15 m at slope gradient 5 degrees, 1 m x 10 m at slope gradient 15 degrees, and 1 m x 3 m at slope gradient 25 degrees.

  16. A comparison of the abilities of the USLE-M, RUSLE2 and WEPP to model event erosion from bare fallow areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnell, P I A

    2017-10-15

    Traditionally, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and the revised version of it (RUSLE) have been applied to predicting the long term average soil loss produced by rainfall erosion in many parts of the world. Overtime, it has been recognized that there is a need to predict soil losses over shorter time scales and this has led to the development of WEPP and RUSLE2 which can be used to predict soil losses generated by individual rainfall events. Data currently exists that enables the RUSLE2, WEPP and the USLE-M to estimate historic soil losses from bare fallow runoff and soil loss plots recorded in the USLE database. Comparisons of the abilities of the USLE-M and RUSLE2 to estimate event soil losses from bare fallow were undertaken under circumstances where both models produced the same total soil loss as observed for sets of erosion events on 4 different plots at 4 different locations. Likewise, comparisons of the abilities of the USLE-M and WEPP to model event soil loss from bare fallow were undertaken for sets of erosion events on 4 plots at 4 different locations. Despite being calibrated specifically for each plot, WEPP produced the worst estimates of event soil loss for all the 4 plots. Generally, the USLE-M using measured runoff to calculate the product of the runoff ratio, storm kinetic energy and the maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity produced the best estimates. As to be expected, ability of the USLE-M to estimate event soil loss was reduced when runoff predicted by either RUSLE2 or WEPP was used. Despite this, the USLE-M using runoff predicted by WEPP estimated event soil loss better than WEPP. RUSLE2 also outperformed WEPP. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. USLE, RUSLE and WEPP models used in mining restored hill slopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Ubierna, S.; Casermeiro Martinez, M. A.; Nicolay Ibarra, J. M.

    2009-01-01

    One of the main problems affecting mining restoration is erosion, which limits the development of functional soils and plant communities. The eroded sediment pollutes and degrades the natural river systems. the objective of this work is to test some of the most used models: USLE (Wischmeier and Smith, 1965, 1978) and RUSLE 1.06 (Toy and Foster, 1998) and WEPP (Nearing et al., 1989), for the case of slopes derived from mining reclamation. The study area is a dump in El Moral coal mine (Utrillas), 60 km. north of Teruel city. We selected three artificial slopes, one with a topsoil substrate and two overburden covered in order to measure the sediment production during a year. After the comparison between estimated and measured erosion rates two conclusions can be stated: a) RUSLE 1.06 gives the best estimations in most of the cases. However WEPP in its annual option and for the top soiled slope, works better than RUSLE 1.06. (Author) 16 refs.

  18. Applying online WEPP to assess forest watershed hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. Dun; J. Q. Wu; W. J. Elliot; J. R. Frankenberger; D. C. Flanagan; D. K. McCool

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and the Great Lakes Commission are developing technologies and predictive tools to aid in watershed management with an ultimate goal of improving and preserving the water quality in the Great Lakes Basin. A new version of the online Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) GIS interface has been developed to assist in evaluating...

  19. The Application of a WEPP Technology to a Complex Watershed Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliot, William; Miller, Ina Sue; Dobre, Mariana

    2017-04-01

    Forest restoration activities are essential in many forest stands, where previous management and fire suppression has resulted in stands with high density, diseased trees and excessive fuel loads. Trying to balance the watershed impacts of restoration activities such as thinning, selective harvesting, and prescribed fire against the significant impact of wildfire is challenging. The process is further aggravated by the necessity of a road network if management activities include timber removal. We propose to present an approach to a watershed analysis for a 3400-ha of fuel reduction project within an 18,0000-ha sensitive watershed in the Nez Perce National Forest in Northern Idaho, USA. The FlamMap fire spread model was first used to predict the distribution of potential fire severity on the landscape for the current fuel load, and for a landscape that had been treated by thinning and/or prescribed fire. FlamMap predicts the flame length by 30-m pixel as a function of fuel load and water content, wind speed, and slope steepness and aspect. The flame length distribution was then classified so that the distribution of burn severity (unburned, low, moderate and high severity) was similar to the distributions observed on recent wildfires in the Forest. The flame length classes determined for the current fuel loads were also used for the treated condition flame lengths, where predominantly unburned or low severity fire severities were predicted. The burn severity maps were uploaded to a web site that was developed to provide soil and management files reflecting burn severity and soil texture, formatted for the Geospatial interface to the Water Erosion Prediction Project (GeoWEPP). The study area was divided into 40 sub watersheds under 2.5 km2 each for GeoWEPP analysis. GeoWEPP was run for an undisturbed forest; for the burn severity following wildfire for the current and treated fuel loads; for prescribed fire, either broadcast or jack pot burn; and for thinning either

  20. Evaluation of the WEPP hillslope model on stable and eroding semiarid woodlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilcox, B.P.; Simanton, J.R.

    1995-01-01

    In this paper, we evaluate runoff and erosion prediction by the WEPP hillslope model for two pinyon-juniper sites in New Mexico: one has a low erosion rate (stable site) and the other (unstable site) is eroding at very rapid rates (as a result of landuse and climatic perturbations over the last century). Runoff and erosion measurements were made at plot and hillslope scales at both sites. WEPP was evaluated using both rainfall simulation and natural rainfall data. Rainfall simulation was performed on both vegetated and bare plots. Parameter values used were developed from rainfall simulation experiments and site characteristics. In general, runoff and erosion were underpredicted at both sites but to a much larger degree at the unstable site. On the unstable site predictions were much improved when we used hydraulic conductivity (Ke) derived from the bare plot rainfall simulation. Also of importance, at the unstable site we observed a large increase in erosion as scale increased from the plot to the hillslope as a result of a well developed channel network. These results are preliminary, in that only a few storms were evaluated, however, they do suggest some important strategies for predicting the impact of reduced vegetation cover to erosion in semiarid landscapes

  1. Comparison of 137Cs fallout redistribution analysis and conventional erosion-prediction models (WEPP, USLE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sparovek, G.; Bacchi, O.O.S.; Ranieri, S.B.L.; Schnug, E.; De-Maria, I.C.

    2002-01-01

    Soil erosion is the most important component of the degradation of tropical agroecosystems. The rates of erosion should be considered in land evaluation and conservation planning assessment. The methods available for erosion prediction are not sufficiently well calibrated or validated for tropical soils, climates and crops. Thus, differences in estimated soil-erosion values may be expected, even if considering a single set of input data. Three methods for the estimation of soil erosion (USLE, WEPP, and 137 Cs) were applied to a watershed cultivated with sugarcane in southeastern Brazil. The absolute erosion-rate values and differences in the spatial distribution were evaluated. The overall results suggest important differences in the estimates obtained by the three methods. The differences occurred both in mean values and in geographic locations. The relative mean values for soil loss were USLE>> 137 Cs>WEPP and for standard deviations were USLE>WEPP> 137 Cs, indicating that USLE predicted the highest erosion values spread out over the widest range. The poor geographical coincidence of the results is evidence that values resulting from non-calibrated erosion methods should be considered only as qualitative indications. The method selection should consider overall site variability in relation to factors to which the methods are known to be sensitive. (author)

  2. Avaliação do desempenho dos modelos de predição da erosão hídrica USLE, RUSLE e WEPP para diferentes condições edafoclimáticas do Brasil Evaluation of the performance of the USLE, RUSLE and WEPP soilerosion models for different edaphoclimatic conditions in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo S. S. Amorim

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho teve o objetivo de avaliar o desempenho dos modelos de predição das perdas de solo USLE, RUSLE e WEPP para diferentes condições edafoclimáticas brasileiras. Para alcançar o objetivo proposto, perdas de solo estimadas pelos referidos modelos em nove localidades do Brasil foram comparadas às perdas medidas em parcelas experimentais, por meio do coeficiente de correlação, da raiz do erro quadrático médio (RMSE, do índice de concordância de Willmott, do índice de confiança, do coeficiente de Nash-Sutcliffe e da eficiência dos modelos. As parcelas experimentais adotadas nos estudos de perdas de solo utilizados no presente trabalho apresentavam dimensões (de 38 a 1.875 m² e tempo de coleta de dados (de 1 a 7 anos variados. Observou-se diferença significativa entre a média geral de perdas de solo estimada pelos modelos e a medida no campo. O WEPP apresentou estimativas mais precisas em 46% das condições simuladas, seguido pelo RUSLE com 42% e USLE com 12%, sendo que os indicadores estatísticos estudados mostraram que o modelo WEPP apresenta melhor desempenho quando comparado com os demais modelos. Apesar de a diferença entre os dados estimados e observados ocorrer para os três modelos, o WEPP, por apresentar melhor desempenho, coeficiente angular mais próximo da unidade na relação entre perdas de solo medidas no campo e estimadas pelo modelo e por ser embasado em processos físicos, demonstra ter maior potencial para fazer previsão da erosão para diferentes condições edafoclimáticas brasileiras.The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of USLE, RUSLE, and WEPP soil loss prediction models for different Brazilian soil and climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, soil losses estimated by the mentioned models in nine locations in Brazil were compared with the losses measured in the field by the following statistical parameters: correlation coefficient, root mean square error, Wilmott

  3. Anthropogenic changes and environmental degradation in pre-Hispanic and post-Colonial periods: soil erosion modelled with WEPP during Late Holocene in Teotihuacán Valley (central Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lourdes González-Arqueros, M.; Mendoza Cantú, Manuel E.

    2015-04-01

    Land use changes and support practices are a worldwide significant issue in soil erosion and subsequently, land degradation. Anthropogenic changes, along different periods of the history in the last 2000 years in the Valley of Teotihuacan (central Mexico), highlight that soil erosion varies depending on how the management and the intensity of soil use is handled, considering the soils as a main resource. As a part of a broader effort to reconstruct the erosion dynamics in the Teotihuacán Valley through geoarchaeological approaches, this study apply a process-based watershed hydrology and upland erosion model, Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP). This research aims to contribute with insights through modelling and to recreate soil erosion and sedimentation dynamics in several historical periods with different environmental and anthropogenic scenarios. The Geo-spatial interface for WEPP (GeoWEPP) was used to characterize location of detachment, depositions and erosion predicted on the profile through time, based on current and hypothetical reconstructed conditions in the watershed. Climate, topography, soil and land use were used as inputs for the WEPP model to estimate runoff fluxes, soil loss rates, and sediment delivery ratio (SDR) for three historical scenarios: current period, reconstructed Teotihuacán period (AD 1-650), and reconstructed Aztec period (AD 1325-1520). Over a simulated and stablished timeframe for those social periods, the runoff, soil loss rate and SDR were estimated to be greater during the Aztec period. We assume that in general the climate conditions for this period were wetter, compared with present, in agreement with several authors that proposed climate reconstructions for the center of Mexico. It is also highlighted that support practices were more effective in this period. The next period with higher values is the current one, and fewer rates are estimated for the Teotihuacán period. This comparison release new arguments in the

  4. Evaluation of the rusle and disturbed wepp erosion models for predicting soil loss in the first year after wildfire in NW Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Cristina; Vega, José A

    2018-05-04

    Severe fire greatly increases soil erosion rates and overland-flow in forest land. Soil erosion prediction models are essential for estimating fire impacts and planning post-fire emergency responses. We evaluated the performance of a) the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), modified by inclusion of an alternative equation for the soil erodibility factor, and b) the Disturbed WEPP model, by comparing the soil loss predicted by the models and the soil loss measured in the first year after wildfire in 44 experimental field plots in NW Spain. The Disturbed WEPP has not previously been validated with field data for use in NW Spain; validation studies are also very scarce in other areas. We found that both models underestimated the erosion rates. The accuracy of the RUSLE model was low, even after inclusion of a modified soil erodibility factor accounting for high contents of soil organic matter. We conclude that neither model is suitable for predicting soil erosion in the first year after fire in NW Spain and suggest that soil burn severity should be given greater weighting in post-fire soil erosion modelling. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. BASINs and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case Study Guide to Potential Applications (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the release of the final report, BASINs and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case Study Guide to Potential Applications. This report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the Better Assessment Science Integrating point & ...

  6. BASINS and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case Study Guide to Potential Applications (External Review Draft)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This draft report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools. The report presents a series of short case studies designed to illustrate the capabilities of these tools for conducting scenario based assessments...

  7. Simulation of runoff and sediment yield from a hilly watershed in the eastern Himalaya, India using the WEPP model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, R. K.; Panda, R. K.; Satapathy, K. K.; Ngachan, S. V.

    2011-08-01

    SummaryA study was undertaken to develop appropriate vegetative as well as structural measures to control sediment yield from a 239.44 ha small multi-vegetated watershed in high rainfall and high land slope conditions of eastern Himalayan range in India using a physically based distributed parameters Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. The model was calibrated and validated using field-measured data pertaining to 86 storms of monsoon season 2003 and 98 storms of 2004. The daily simulated runoff and sediment yield of the Umroi watershed for the calibration and validation periods were found to match with their measured counterparts at 95% significance level as shown by the Student's t-tests. The model simulated daily runoff quite well as corroborated by reasonably high Nash-Sutcliffe simulation coefficients of 0.94 and 0.87, low root mean square errors of 1.42 and 1.77 mm, and low percent deviations of -1.71 and -3.01, respectively for calibration and validation periods. The performance of the model for simulating daily sediment yield was also quite good with Nash-Sutcliffe simulation coefficients of 0.95 and 0.90, root mean square errors of 0.08 and 0.09 Mg ha -1 and percent deviations of 3.05 and -5.23, respectively for calibration and validation periods. Subsequently, the calibrated and validated model was used to simulate vegetative (crop, level of fertilization and tillage) and structural (rock-fill check dam and trash barrier) measures and combinations of vegetative and structural control to evaluate their impacts on runoff and sediment yield reduction. Simulations of different vegetative management scenarios indicated that replacing traditional bun agriculture and upland paddy crop with maize, soybean, and peanut would reduce sediment yield by 18.68, 29.60 and 27.70%, respectively. Field cultivator and drill-no-tillage systems have the potential to reduce sediment yield by 13.14 and 21.88%, respectively as compared to the existing practice of

  8. Usability and Functional Enhancements to an Online Interface for Predicting Post Fire Erosion (WEPP-PEP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lew, Roger; Dobre, Mariana; Elliot, William; Robichaud, Pete; Brooks, Erin; Frankenberger, Jim

    2017-04-01

    There is an increased interest in the United States to use soil burn severity maps in watershed-scale hydrologic models to estimate post-fire sediment erosion from burned areas. This information is needed by stakeholders in order to concentrate their pre- or post-fire management efforts in ecologically sensitive areas to decrease the probability of post-fire sediment delivery. But these tools traditionally have been time consuming and difficult to use by managers because input datasets must be obtained and correctly processed for valid results. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) has previously been developed as an online and easy-to-use interface to help land managers with running simulations without any knowledge of computer programming or hydrologic modeling. The interface automates the acquisition of DEM, climate, soils, and landcover data, and also automates channel and hillslope delineation for the users. The backend is built with Mapserver, GDAL, PHP, C++, Python while the front end uses OpenLayers, and, of course, JavaScript. The existing WEPP online interface was enhanced to provide better usability to stakeholders in United States (Forest Service, BLM, USDA) as well as to provide enhanced functionality for managing both pre-fire and post-fire treatments. Previously, only site administrators could add burn severity maps. The interface now allows users to create accounts to upload and share FlamMap prediction maps, differenced Normalized Burned Ratio (dNBR), or Burned Area Reflectance Classification (BARC) maps. All maps are loaded into a sortable catalog so users can quickly find their area of interest. Once loaded, the interface has been modified to support running comparisons between baseline condition with "no burn" and with a burn severity classification map. The interface has also been enhanced to allow users to conduct single storm analyses to examine, for example, how much soil loss would result after a 100-year storm. An OpenLayers map

  9. Validation of a probabilistic post-fire erosion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pete Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Sarah A. Lewis; Mary Ellen Miller

    2016-01-01

    Post-fire increases of runoff and erosion often occur and land managers need tools to be able to project the increased risk. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model as the underlying processor. ERMiT predicts the probability of a given amount of hillslope sediment delivery from a single rainfall or...

  10. Supporting the operational use of process based hydrological models and NASA Earth Observations for use in land management and post-fire remediation through a Rapid Response Erosion Database (RRED).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, M. E.; Elliot, W.; Billmire, M.; Robichaud, P. R.; Banach, D. M.

    2017-12-01

    We have built a Rapid Response Erosion Database (RRED, http://rred.mtri.org/rred/) for the continental United States to allow land managers to access properly formatted spatial model inputs for the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP). Spatially-explicit process-based models like WEPP require spatial inputs that include digital elevation models (DEMs), soil, climate and land cover. The online database delivers either a 10m or 30m USGS DEM, land cover derived from the Landfire project, and soil data derived from SSURGO and STATSGO datasets. The spatial layers are projected into UTM coordinates and pre-registered for modeling. WEPP soil parameter files are also created along with linkage files to match both spatial land cover and soils data with the appropriate WEPP parameter files. Our goal is to make process-based models more accessible by preparing spatial inputs ahead of time allowing modelers to focus on addressing scenarios of concern. The database provides comprehensive support for post-fire hydrological modeling by allowing users to upload spatial soil burn severity maps, and within moments returns spatial model inputs. Rapid response is critical following natural disasters. After moderate and high severity wildfires, flooding, erosion, and debris flows are a major threat to life, property and municipal water supplies. Mitigation measures must be rapidly implemented if they are to be effective, but they are expensive and cannot be applied everywhere. Fire, runoff, and erosion risks also are highly heterogeneous in space, creating an urgent need for rapid, spatially-explicit assessment. The database has been used to help assess and plan remediation on over a dozen wildfires in the Western US. Future plans include expanding spatial coverage, improving model input data and supporting additional models. Our goal is to facilitate the use of the best possible datasets and models to support the conservation of soil and water.

  11. Catchment-scale Validation of a Physically-based, Post-fire Runoff and Erosion Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, D.; Brooks, E. S.; Robichaud, P. R.; Dobre, M.; Brown, R. E.; Wagenbrenner, J.

    2017-12-01

    The cascading consequences of fire-induced ecological changes have profound impacts on both natural and managed forest ecosystems. Forest managers tasked with implementing post-fire mitigation strategies need robust tools to evaluate the effectiveness of their decisions, particularly those affecting hydrological recovery. Various hillslope-scale interfaces of the physically-based Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model have been successfully validated for this purpose using fire-effected plot experiments, however these interfaces are explicitly designed to simulate single hillslopes. Spatially-distributed, catchment-scale WEPP interfaces have been developed over the past decade, however none have been validated for post-fire simulations, posing a barrier to adoption for forest managers. In this validation study, we compare WEPP simulations with pre- and post-fire hydrological records for three forested catchments (W. Willow, N. Thomas, and S. Thomas) that burned in the 2011 Wallow Fire in Northeastern Arizona, USA. Simulations were conducted using two approaches; the first using automatically created inputs from an online, spatial, post-fire WEPP interface, and the second using manually created inputs which incorporate the spatial variability of fire effects observed in the field. Both approaches were compared to five years of observed post-fire sediment and flow data to assess goodness of fit.

  12. China's modern day Great Wall : the 40 inch West to East Gas Pipeline Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gray, L.A.B.

    2004-01-01

    In order to fuel China's economic growth, PetroChina began construction of the West to East Natural Gas Pipeline Project (WEPP) in 2001 to transport large quantities of natural gas reserves from the Tarim Basin in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region in far western China to markets in eastern China. The WEPP is the first large diameter, cross-country pipeline project ever constructed in China, and was the first to use automatic welding and automatic ultrasonic inspection on pipelines in China. This paper addressed the management, engineering, procurement and construction challenges of the WEPP. Upon completion of the 3,800 km, 1.016 mm mainline pipeline, construction will begin on other major facilities, such 294 km of lateral line, dual fiber optic conduits with the mainline, 1,100 km of access roads, 23 metering stations, 18 pigging stations, 10 compressor stations, 16 mountain tunnels, 16 aerial crossings, 1 crossing of the Yangtze River, 3 crossings of the Yellow River, a gas control center, and SCADA system. Houston-based Universal Ensco Inc. was awarded a contract to perform a feasibility study as well as a construction supervision contract by PetroChina for the WEPP. Universal also designed a gas turbine drive compressor station at Lunnan and an electric drive compressor station at Zhengzhou. This paper demonstrated that business in China for foreign companies in the pipeline industry is evolving and several changes can be expected as the state planned economy is reformed to a free market economy. 4 refs., 5 tabs., 17 figs.

  13. Effects of DTM resolution on slope steepness and soil loss prediction on hillslope profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eder Paulo Moreira; William J. Elliot; Andrew T. Hudak

    2011-01-01

    Topographic attributes play a critical role in predicting erosion in models such as the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP). The effects of four different high resolution hillslope profiles were studied using four different DTM resolutions: 1-m, 3-m, 5-m and 10-m. The WEPP model used a common scenario encountered in the forest environment and the selected hillslope...

  14. Modeling of phosphorus fluxes produced by wild fires at watershed scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matyjasik, M.; Hernandez, M.; Shaw, N.; Baker, M.; Fowles, M. T.; Cisney, T. A.; Jex, A. P.; Moisen, G.

    2017-12-01

    River runoff is one of the controlling processes in the terrestrial phosphorus cycle. Phosphorus is often a limiting factor in fresh water. One of the factors that has not been studied and modeled in detail is phosporus flux produced from forest wild fires. Phosphate released by weathering is quickly absorbed in soils. Forest wild fires expose barren soils to intensive erosion, thus releasing relatively large fluxes of phosphorus. Measurements from three control burn sites were used to correlate erosion with phosphorus fluxes. These results were used to model phosphorus fluxes from burned watersheds during a five year long period after fires occurred. Erosion in our model is simulated using a combination of two models: the WEPP (USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project) and the GeoWEPP (GIS-based Water Erosion Prediction Project). Erosion produced from forest disturbances is predicted for any watershed using hydrologic, soil, and meteorological data unique to the individual watersheds or individual slopes. The erosion results are modified for different textural soil classes and slope angles to model fluxes of phosphorus. The results of these models are calibrated using measured concentrations of phosphorus for three watersheds located in the Interior Western United States. The results will help the United States Forest Service manage phosporus fluxes in national forests.

  15. Critical Source Area Delineation: The representation of hydrology in effective erosion modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, A.; Boll, J.; Brooks, E. S.; Boylan, R. D.

    2017-12-01

    Despite decades of conservation and millions of conservation dollars, nonpoint source sediment loading associated with agricultural disturbance continues to be a significant problem in many parts of the world. Local and national conservation organizations are interested in targeting critical source areas for control strategy implementation. Currently, conservation practices are selected and located based on the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) hillslope erosion modeling, and the National Resource Conservation Service will soon be transiting to the Watershed Erosion Predict Project (WEPP) model for the same purpose. We present an assessment of critical source areas targeted with RUSLE, WEPP and a regionally validated hydrology model, the Soil Moisture Routing (SMR) model, to compare the location of critical areas for sediment loading and the effectiveness of control strategies. The three models are compared for the Palouse dryland cropping region of the inland northwest, with un-calibrated analyses of the Kamiache watershed using publicly available soils, land-use and long-term simulated climate data. Critical source areas were mapped and the side-by-side comparison exposes the differences in the location and timing of runoff and erosion predictions. RUSLE results appear most sensitive to slope driving processes associated with infiltration excess. SMR captured saturation excess driven runoff events located at the toe slope position, while WEPP was able to capture both infiltration excess and saturation excess processes depending on soil type and management. A methodology is presented for down-scaling basin level screening to the hillslope management scale for local control strategies. Information on the location of runoff and erosion, driven by the runoff mechanism, is critical for effective treatment and conservation.

  16. Rapid Response Tools and Datasets for Post-fire Hydrological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.; Billmire, Michael; Elliot, William J.; Robichaud, Pete R.

    2016-04-01

    Rapid response is critical following natural disasters. Flooding, erosion, and debris flows are a major threat to life, property and municipal water supplies after moderate and high severity wildfires. The problem is that mitigation measures must be rapidly implemented if they are to be effective, but they are expensive and cannot be applied everywhere. Fires, runoff, and erosion risks also are highly heterogeneous in space, so there is an urgent need for a rapid, spatially-explicit assessment. Past post-fire modeling efforts have usually relied on lumped, conceptual models because of the lack of readily available, spatially-explicit data layers on the key controls of topography, vegetation type, climate, and soil characteristics. The purpose of this project is to develop a set of spatially-explicit data layers for use in process-based models such as WEPP, and to make these data layers freely available. The resulting interactive online modeling database (http://geodjango.mtri.org/geowepp/) is now operational and publically available for 17 western states in the USA. After a fire, users only need to upload a soil burn severity map, and this is combined with the pre-existing data layers to generate the model inputs needed for spatially explicit models such as GeoWEPP (Renschler, 2003). The development of this online database has allowed us to predict post-fire erosion and various remediation scenarios in just 1-7 days for six fires ranging in size from 4-540 km2. These initial successes have stimulated efforts to further improve the spatial extent and amount of data, and add functionality to support the USGS debris flow model, batch processing for Disturbed WEPP (Elliot et al., 2004) and ERMiT (Robichaud et al., 2007), and to support erosion modeling for other land uses, such as agriculture or mining. The design and techniques used to create the database and the modeling interface are readily repeatable for any area or country that has the necessary topography

  17. EVALUATION OF SOIL LOSS IN GUARAÍRA BASIN BY GIS AND REMOTE SENSING BASED MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richarde Marques da Silva

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental degradation, and specifically erosion, is a serious and extensive problem in many areas in Brazil. Prediction of runoff and erosion in ungauged basins is one of the most challenging tasks anywhere and it is especially a very difficult one in developing countries where monitoring and continuous measurements of these quantities are carried out in very few basins either due to the costs involved or due to the lack of trained personnel. The erosion processes and land use in the Guaraíra River Experimental Basin, located in Paraíba state, Brazil, are evaluated using remote sensing and a runoff-erosion model. WEPP is a process-based continuous simulation erosion model that can be applied to hillslope profiles and small watersheds. WEPP erosion model have been compared in numerous studies to observed values for soil loss and sediment delivery from cropland plots, forest roads, irrigated lands and small watersheds. A number of different techniques for evaluating WEPP have been used, including one recently developed in which the ability of WEPP to accurately predict soil erosion can be compared to the accuracy of replicated plots to predict soil erosion. WEPP was calibrated with daily rainfall data from five rain gauges for the period of 2003 to 2005. The obtained results showed the susceptible areas to the erosion process within Guaraíra river basin, and that the mean sediment yield could be in the order of 3.0 ton/ha/year (in an area of 5.84 ha.

  18. EVALUATION OF SOIL LOSS IN GUARAÍRA BASIN BY GIS AND REMOTE SENSING BASED MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richarde Marques Silva

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Environmental degradation, and specifically erosion, is a serious and extensive problem in many areas in Brazil. Prediction of runoff and erosion in ungauged basins is one of the most challenging tasks anywhere and it is especially a very difficult one in developing countries where monitoring and continuous measurements of these quantities are carried out in very few basins either due to the costs involved or due to the lack of trained personnel. The erosion processes and land use in the Guaraíra River Experimental Basin, located in Paraíba state, Brazil, are evaluated using remote sensing and a runoff-erosion model. WEPP is a process-based continuous simulation erosion model that can be applied to hillslope profiles and small watersheds. WEPP erosion model have been compared in numerous studies to observed values for soil loss and sediment delivery from cropland plots, forest roads, irrigated lands and small watersheds. A number of different techniques for evaluating WEPP have been used, including one recently developed in which the ability of WEPP to accurately predict soil erosion can be compared to the accuracy of replicated plots to predict soil erosion. WEPP was calibrated with daily rainfall data from five rain gauges for the period of 2003 to 2005. The obtained results showed the susceptible areas to the erosion process within Guaraíra river basin, and that the mean sediment yield could be in the order of 3.0 ton/ha/year (in an area of 5.84 ha.

  19. The development of U. S. soil erosion prediction and modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M. Laflen

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Soil erosion prediction technology began over 70 years ago when Austin Zingg published a relationship between soil erosion (by water and land slope and length, followed shortly by a relationship by Dwight Smith that expanded this equation to include conservation practices. But, it was nearly 20 years before this work's expansion resulted in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE, perhaps the foremost achievement in soil erosion prediction in the last century. The USLE has increased in application and complexity, and its usefulness and limitations have led to the development of additional technologies and new science in soil erosion research and prediction. Main among these new technologies is the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP model, which has helped to overcome many of the shortcomings of the USLE, and increased the scale over which erosion by water can be predicted. Areas of application of erosion prediction include almost all land types: urban, rural, cropland, forests, rangeland, and construction sites. Specialty applications of WEPP include prediction of radioactive material movement with soils at a superfund cleanup site, and near real-time daily estimation of soil erosion for the entire state of Iowa.

  20. Targeting Forest Management through Fire and Erosion Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliot, William J.; Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.

    2013-04-01

    Forests deliver a number of ecosystem services, including clean water. When forests are disturbed by wildfire, the timing and quantity of runoff can be altered, and the quality can be severely degraded. A modeling study for about 1500 km2 in the Upper Mokelumne River Watershed in California was conducted to determine the risk of wildfire and the associated potential sediment delivery should a wildfire occur, and to calculate the potential reduction in sediment delivery that might result from fuel reduction treatments. The first step was to predict wildfire severity and probability of occurrence under current vegetation conditions with FlamMap fire prediction tool. FlamMap uses current vegetation, topography, and wind characteristics to predict the speed, flame length, and direction of a simulated flame front for each 30-m pixel. As the first step in the erosion modeling, a geospatial interface for the WEPP model (GeoWEPP) was used to delineate approximately 6-ha hillslope polygons for the study area. The flame length values from FlamMap were then aggregated for each hillslope polygon to yield a predicted fire intensity. Fire intensity and pre-fire vegetation conditions were used to estimate fire severity (either unburned, low, moderate or high). The fire severity was combined with soil properties from the STATSGO database to build the vegetation and soil files needed to run WEPP for each polygon. Eight different stochastic climates were generated to account for the weather variability within the basin. A modified batching version of GeoWEPP was used to predict the first-year post-fire sediment yield from each hillslope and subwatershed. Estimated sediment yields ranged from 0 to more than 100 Mg/ha, and were typical of observed values. The polygons that generated the greatest amount of sediment or that were critical for reducing fire spread were identified, and these were "treated" by reducing the amount of fuel available for a wildfire. The erosion associated with

  1. Mechanics of Interrill Erosion with Wind-Driven Rain (WDR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This article provides an evaluation analysis for the performance of the interrill component of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for Wind-Driven Rain (WDR) events. The interrill delivery rates (Di) were collected in the wind tunnel rainfall simulator facility of the International Cen...

  2. Mechanics of interrill erosion with wind-driven rain

    Science.gov (United States)

    The vector physics of wind-driven rain (WDR) differs from that of wind-free rain, and the interrill soil detachment equations in the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model were not originally developed to deal with this phenomenon. This article provides an evaluation of the performance of the...

  3. Evaluation of the effects of land consolidation in the Latyczyn village in terms of land protection against erosion on the slope scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rybicki Roman

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Soil erosion by water is an important economical issue strongly deteriorating environment and requiring remedial actions. The study was designed to evaluate antierosion effect of changes in the layout of plots from along to across slope as an effect of land consolidation. Moreover, rightness of leaving newly set out boundaries of plots without any protection (i.e. sodding was evaluated. For this purpose simulations of use of additional anti-erosive measures were done. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP model was used. Studies have shown that in addition to the design of transverse layout of parcels during consolidation, further antierosion measures may be necessary to reduce soil loss and sediment yield. In order to minimize soil losses outside the slope, boundaries between the newly designed fields should be sodded already in the post consolidation management. Limitation the amount of erosion over the entire slope requires use of additional protection measures in the upper part of slopes e.g. shelterbelts and antierosion crop rotations. WEPP model can be recommended for Provincial Bureaus of Surveying as a tool to support the development of assumptions for consolidation projects of lands threatened by erosion.

  4. Agricultural watershed modeling: a review for hydrology and soil erosion processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Rogério de Mello

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Models have been used by man for thousands of years to control his environment in a favorable way to better human living conditions. The use of hydrologic models has been a widely effective tool in order to support decision makers dealing with watersheds related to several economic and social activities, like public water supply, energy generation, and water availability for agriculture, among others. The purpose of this review is to briefly discuss some models on soil and water movement on landscapes (RUSLE, WEPP, GeoWEPP, LASH, DHSVM and AnnAGNPS to provide information about them to help and serve in a proper manner in order to discuss particular problems related to hydrology and soil erosion processes. Models have been changed and evaluated significantly in recent years, highlighting the use of remote sense, GIS and automatic calibration process, allowing them capable of simulating watersheds under a given land-use and climate change effects. However, hydrology models have almost the same physical structure, which is not enough for simulating problems related to the long-term effects of different land-uses. That has been our challenge for next future: to understand entirely the hydrology cycle, having as reference the critical zone, in which the hydrological processes act together from canopy to the bottom of aquifers.

  5. Soil erosion evaluation in a small watershed in Brazil through 137Cs fallout redistribution analysis and conventional models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bacchi, O.O.S.; Reichard, K.; Sparovek, G.; Ranieri, S.B.L.

    2000-01-01

    An investigation of rates and patterns of soil erosion on agricultural land cultivated with sugarcane was undertaken using the 137 Cs technique, USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation) and WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) model. The study was carried out on a representative catchment of a small watershed of the Piracicaba river basin, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil, called Ceveiro watershed, well known for its severe soil degradation caused by erosion. The results from the 137 Cs technique indicate that most part of the studied area (94%) are eroded at erosion rates that go up to 59 Mg ha -1 y -1 , with a weighted average rate of 23 Mg ha -1 y -1 . The weighted average rate of infield deposition and sediment retrieval that occurs in only 6% of the total area was estimated to be around 12 Mg ha -1 y -1 . These values led to very high net soil loss from the field, with rates of the order of 21 Mg ha -1 y -1 , which represents a sediment delivery ratio of 97%. A linear correlation between soil erosion rate estimated by the 137 Cs technique and the amount of available K in the top soil layer (0-20 cm) was observed. Based on this correlation the estimated amounts of net and gross K loss in the grid area due to soil erosion were of 0.2 and 1.52 kg ha -1 y -1 , respectively. The erosion rate estimated by USLE was 39 Mg ha -1 y -1 and by WEPP model 16.5 Mg ha -1 y -1 with a sediment delivery of 12.4 Mg ha -1 y -1 (75%). The results are a confirmation that the soil conservation practices adopted in the area are very poor and can explain the high siltation level of water reservoirs in the watershed. (author) [pt

  6. Tool for obtaining projected future climate inputs for the WEPP and SWAT models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is an increasingly important issue affecting natural resources. Rising temperatures, reductions in snow cover, and variability in precipitation depths and intensities are altering the accepted normal approaches for predicting runoff, soil erosion, and chemical losses from upland areas...

  7. Projection Models 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Illerup, J. B.; Birr-Pedersen, K.; Mikkelsen, M. H

    Models for projection of SO2-, NOx-, NMVOC- and NH3-emissions to the atmosphere have been developed and the Danish emissions have been projected until 2010 from a basis scenario including all implemented and planned measures. The projections of the four pollutants indicate that it may be difficult...

  8. Nonmonotonic and spatial-temporal dynamic slope effects on soil erosion during rainfall-runoff processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Songbai; Yu, Minghui; Chen, Li

    2017-02-01

    The slope effect on flow erosivity and soil erosion still remains a controversial issue. This theoretical framework explained and quantified the direct slope effect by coupling the modified Green-Ampt equation accounting for slope effect on infiltration, 1-D kinematic wave overland flow routing model, and WEPP soil erosion model. The flow velocity, runoff rate, shear stress, interrill, and rill erosion were calculated on 0°-60° isotropic slopes with equal horizontal projective length. The results show that, for short-duration rainfall events, the flow erosivity and erosion amounts exhibit a bell-shaped trend which first increase with slope gradient, and then decrease after a critical slope angle. The critical slope angles increase significantly or even vanish with increasing rainfall duration but are nearly independent of the slope projective length. The soil critical shear stress, rainfall intensity, and temporal patterns have great influences on the slope effect trend, while the other soil erosion parameters, soil type, hydraulic conductivity, and antecedent soil moisture have minor impacts. Neglecting the slope effect on infiltration would generate smaller erosion and reduce critical slope angles. The relative slope effect on soil erosion in physically based model WEPP was compared to those in the empirical models USLE and RUSLE. The trends of relative slope effect were found quite different, but the difference may diminish with increasing rainfall duration. Finally, relatively smaller critical slope angles could be obtained with the equal slope length and the range of variation provides a possible explanation for the different critical slope angles reported in previous studies.

  9. INDICATIVE MODEL OF DEVIATIONS IN PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олена Борисівна ДАНЧЕНКО

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article shows the process of constructing the project deviations indicator model. It based on a conceptual model of project deviations integrated management (PDIM. During the project different causes (such as risks, changes, problems, crises, conflicts, stress lead to deviations of integrated project indicators - time, cost, quality, and content. For a more detailed definition of where in the project deviations occur and how they are dangerous for the whole project, it needs to develop an indicative model of project deviations. It allows identifying the most dangerous deviations that require PDIM. As a basis for evaluation of project's success has been taken famous model IPMA Delta. During the evaluation, IPMA Delta estimated project management competence of organization in three modules: I-Module ("Individuals" - a self-assessment personnel, P-module ("Projects" - self-assessment of projects and/or programs, and O-module ("Organization" - used to conduct interviews with selected people during auditing company. In the process of building an indicative model of deviations in the project, the first step is the assessment of project management in the organization by IPMA Delta. In the future, built cognitive map and matrix of system interconnections of the project, which conducted simulations and built a scale of deviations for the selected project. They determined a size and place of deviations. To identify the detailed causes of deviations in the project management has been proposed to use the extended system of indicators, which is based on indicators of project management model Project Excellence. The proposed indicative model of deviations in projects allows to estimate the size of variation and more accurately identify the place of negative deviations in the project and provides the project manager information for operational decision making for the management of deviations in the implementation of the project

  10. Naesliden project: FEM modelling strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borg, T.

    1980-05-15

    A schematized description is given of the different stages in the project. The aim is to show the development of the project and the strategies which have been chosen. The four different stages in the project are treated from the following points of view: the reasons for the choice of material models; the determination of model properties; and the control of the calculated values. In the origin plan for the project it was stated to only use a joint element model. However, it was shown to be a reasonable strategy to use both a general linear elastic model and a geometric restricted model with joint elements. During the course of the Project's development stages, it was found that a reduction in the number of rock types could be made without loss of generality. A modified strategy is suggested based on more studies of the rock bahavior and less advanced calculations in the first stages of the project.

  11. Rotina computacional e equação simplificada para modelar o transporte de sedimentos num Latossolo Vermelho Distrófico Computational routine and simplified equation for modeling sediment transport capacity in a Dystrophic Hapludox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilmar E. Cerquetani

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Os objetivos do presente trabalho foram desenvolver rotina computacional para a solução da equação de Yalin e do diagrama de Shields e avaliar uma equação simplificada para modelar a capacidade de transporte de sedimento num Latossolo Vermelho Distrófico que possa ser utilizada no Water Erosion Prediction Project - WEPP, assim como em outros modelos de predição da erosão do solo. A capacidade de transporte de sedimento para o fluxo superficial foi representada como função-potência da tensão cisalhante, a qual revelou ser aproximação da equação de Yalin. Essa equação simplificada pôde ser aplicada em resultados experimentais oriundos de topografia complexa. A equação simplificada demonstrou acuracidade em relação à equação de Yalin, quando calibrada utilizando-se da tensão média cisalhante. Testes de validação com dados independentes demonstraram que a equação simplificada foi eficiente para estimar a capacidade de transporte de sedimento.The objectives of the present work were to develop a computational routine to solve Yalin equation and Shield diagram and to evaluate a simplified equation for modeling sediment transport capacity in a Dystrophic Hapludox that could be used in the Water Erosion Prediction Project - WEPP, as well as other soil erosion models. Sediment transport capacity for shallow overland flow was represented as a power function of the hydraulic shear stress and which showed to be an approximation to the Yalin equation for sediment transport capacity. The simplified equation for sediment transport could be applied to experimental data from a complex topography. The simplified equation accurately approximated the Yalin equation when calibrated using the mean hydraulic shear stress. Validation tests using independent data showed that the simplified equation had a good performance in predicting sediment transport capacity.

  12. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES), provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report.

  13. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) (Figure 1). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report

  14. Competency model for the project managers of technical projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, William R.

    1992-05-01

    Traditional job description techniques were developed to support compensation decisions for hourly wage earners in a manufacturing environment. Their resultant focus on activities performed on the job works well in this environment where the ability to perform the activity adequately is objectively verifiable by testing and observation. Although many organizations have adapted these techniques for salaried employees and service environments, the focus on activities performed has never been satisfactory. For example, stating that a project manager `prepares regular project status reports' tells us little about what to look for in a potential project manager or how to determine if a practicing project manager is ready for additional responsibilities. The concept of a `competency model' has been developed within the last decade to address this shortcoming. Competency models focus on what skills are needed to perform the tasks defined by the job description. For example, a project manager must be able to communicate well both orally and in writing in order to `prepare regular project status reports.'

  15. Beyond theory : Towards a probabilistic causation model to support project governance in infrastructure projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert

    2017-01-01

    A new project governance model for infrastructure projects is described in this paper. This model contains causal mechanisms that relate a number of project governance variables to project performance. Our proposed model includes relevant variables for measuring project governance in construction

  16. Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnell, Peter

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

  17. Constrained bayesian inference of project performance models

    OpenAIRE

    Sunmola, Funlade

    2013-01-01

    Project performance models play an important role in the management of project success. When used for monitoring projects, they can offer predictive ability such as indications of possible delivery problems. Approaches for monitoring project performance relies on available project information including restrictions imposed on the project, particularly the constraints of cost, quality, scope and time. We study in this paper a Bayesian inference methodology for project performance modelling in ...

  18. Spiral model pilot project information model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    The objective was an evaluation of the Spiral Model (SM) development approach to allow NASA Marshall to develop an experience base of that software management methodology. A discussion is presented of the Information Model (IM) that was used as part of the SM methodology. A key concept of the SM is the establishment of an IM to be used by management to track the progress of a project. The IM is the set of metrics that is to be measured and reported throughout the life of the project. These metrics measure both the product and the process to ensure the quality of the final delivery item and to ensure the project met programmatic guidelines. The beauty of the SM, along with the IM, is the ability to measure not only the correctness of the specification and implementation of the requirements but to also obtain a measure of customer satisfaction.

  19. Teaching mathematical modelling through project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomhøj, Morten; Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff

    2006-01-01

    are reported in manners suitable for internet publication for colleagues. The reports and the related discussions reveal interesting dilemmas concerning the teaching of mathematical modelling and how to cope with these through “setting the scene” for the students modelling projects and through dialogues......The paper presents and analyses experiences from developing and running an in-service course in project work and mathematical modelling for mathematics teachers in the Danish gymnasium, e.g. upper secondary level, grade 10-12. The course objective is to support the teachers to develop, try out...... in their own classes, evaluate and report a project based problem oriented course in mathematical modelling. The in-service course runs over one semester and includes three seminars of 3, 1 and 2 days. Experiences show that the course objectives in general are fulfilled and that the course projects...

  20. Modelling the effectiveness of grass buffer strips in managing muddy floods under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Meneely, John; Crossley, Laura H.

    2016-10-01

    Muddy floods occur when rainfall generates runoff on agricultural land, detaching and transporting sediment into the surrounding natural and built environment. In the Belgian Loess Belt, muddy floods occur regularly and lead to considerable economic costs associated with damage to property and infrastructure. Mitigation measures designed to manage the problem have been tested in a pilot area within Flanders and were found to be cost-effective within three years. This study assesses whether these mitigation measures will remain effective under a changing climate. To test this, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to examine muddy flooding diagnostics (precipitation, runoff, soil loss and sediment yield) for a case study hillslope in Flanders where grass buffer strips are currently used as a mitigation measure. The model was run for present day conditions and then under 33 future site-specific climate scenarios. These future scenarios were generated from three earth system models driven by four representative concentration pathways and downscaled using quantile mapping and the weather generator CLIGEN. Results reveal that under the majority of future scenarios, muddy flooding diagnostics are projected to increase, mostly as a consequence of large scale precipitation events rather than mean changes. The magnitude of muddy flood events for a given return period is also generally projected to increase. These findings indicate that present day mitigation measures may have a reduced capacity to manage muddy flooding given the changes imposed by a warming climate with an enhanced hydrological cycle. Revisions to the design of existing mitigation measures within existing policy frameworks are considered the most effective way to account for the impacts of climate change in future mitigation planning.

  1. World Energy Projection System model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

    1997-09-01

    The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA

  2. World Energy Projection System model documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

    1997-09-01

    The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA.

  3. Testing Software Development Project Productivity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipkin, Ilya

    Software development is an increasingly influential factor in today's business environment, and a major issue affecting software development is how an organization estimates projects. If the organization underestimates cost, schedule, and quality requirements, the end results will not meet customer needs. On the other hand, if the organization overestimates these criteria, resources that could have been used more profitably will be wasted. There is no accurate model or measure available that can guide an organization in a quest for software development, with existing estimation models often underestimating software development efforts as much as 500 to 600 percent. To address this issue, existing models usually are calibrated using local data with a small sample size, with resulting estimates not offering improved cost analysis. This study presents a conceptual model for accurately estimating software development, based on an extensive literature review and theoretical analysis based on Sociotechnical Systems (STS) theory. The conceptual model serves as a solution to bridge organizational and technological factors and is validated using an empirical dataset provided by the DoD. Practical implications of this study allow for practitioners to concentrate on specific constructs of interest that provide the best value for the least amount of time. This study outlines key contributing constructs that are unique for Software Size E-SLOC, Man-hours Spent, and Quality of the Product, those constructs having the largest contribution to project productivity. This study discusses customer characteristics and provides a framework for a simplified project analysis for source selection evaluation and audit task reviews for the customers and suppliers. Theoretical contributions of this study provide an initial theory-based hypothesized project productivity model that can be used as a generic overall model across several application domains such as IT, Command and Control

  4. Climate Change Impacts on Nutrient Losses of Two Watersheds in the Great Lakes Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lili Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Non-point sources (NPS of agricultural chemical pollution are one major reason for the water quality degradation of the Great Lakes, which impacts millions of residents in the states and provinces that are bordering them. Future climate change will further impact water quality in both direct and indirect ways by influencing the hydrological cycle and processes of nutrient transportation and transformation, but studies are still rare. This study focuses on quantifying the impacts of climate change on nutrient (Nitrogen and Phosphorus losses from the two small watersheds (Walworth watershed and Green Lake watershed within the Great Lakes region. Analysis focused on changes through this century (comparing the nutrient loss prediction of three future periods from 2015 to 2099 with 30 years for each period against the historical nutrient estimation data from 1985 to 2008. The effects on total phosphorus and nitrate-nitrogen losses due to changes in precipitation quantity, intensity, and frequency, as well as air temperature, are evaluated for the two small watersheds, under three special report emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B1. The newly developed Water Erosion Prediction Project-Water Quality (WEPP-WQ model is utilized to simulate nutrient losses with downscaled and bias corrected future climate forcing from two General Circulation Models (GFDL, HadCM3. For each watershed, the observed runoff and nutrient loads are used to calibrate and validate the model before the application of the WEPP-WQ model to examine potential impacts from future climate change. Total phosphorus loss is projected to increase by 28% to 89% for the Green Lake watershed and 25% to 108% for the Walworth watershed mainly due to the combined effects of increase of precipitation quantity, extreme storm events in intensity and frequency, and air temperature. Nitrate-nitrogen losses are projected to increase by 1.1% to 38% for the Green Lake watershed and 8% to 95% for the

  5. Flow resistance interactions on hillslopes with heterogeneous attributes: Effects on runoff hydrograph characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    An improved modeling framework for capturing the effects of dynamic resistance to overland flow is developed for intensively managed landscapes. The framework builds on the WEPP model but it removes the limitations of the “equivalent” plane and static roughness assumption. The enhanced model therefo...

  6. K3 projective models in scrolls

    CERN Document Server

    Johnsen, Trygve

    2004-01-01

    The exposition studies projective models of K3 surfaces whose hyperplane sections are non-Clifford general curves. These models are contained in rational normal scrolls. The exposition supplements standard descriptions of models of general K3 surfaces in projective spaces of low dimension, and leads to a classification of K3 surfaces in projective spaces of dimension at most 10. The authors bring further the ideas in Saint-Donat's classical article from 1974, lifting results from canonical curves to K3 surfaces and incorporating much of the Brill-Noether theory of curves and theory of syzygies developed in the mean time.

  7. Comparison of additive (absolute) risk projection models and multiplicative (relative) risk projection models in estimating radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

    1990-01-01

    Lifetime cancer risk estimates depend on risk projection models. While the increasing lengths of follow-up observation periods of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bring about changes in cancer risk estimates, the validity of the two risk projection models, the additive risk projection model (AR) and multiplicative risk projection model (MR), comes into question. This paper compares the lifetime risk or loss of life-expectancy between the two projection models on the basis of BEIR-III report or recently published RERF report. With Japanese cancer statistics the estimates of MR were greater than those of AR, but a reversal of these results was seen when the cancer hazard function for India was used. When we investigated the validity of the two projection models using epidemiological human data and animal data, the results suggested that MR was superior to AR with respect to temporal change, but there was little evidence to support its validity. (author)

  8. Development of an Integrated Water and Wind Erosion Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanagan, D. C.; Ascough, J. C.; Wagner, L. E.; Geter, W. F.

    2006-12-01

    Prediction technologies for soil erosion by the forces of wind or water have largely been developed independently from one another, especially within the United States. Much of this has been due to the initial creation of equations and models which were empirical in nature (i.e., Universal Soil Loss Equation, Wind Erosion Equation) and based upon separate water erosion or wind erosion plot and field measurements. Additionally, institutional organizations in place typically divided research efforts and funding to unique wind or water erosion research and modeling projects. However, during the past 20 years computer technologies and erosion modeling have progressed to the point where it is now possible to merge physical process-based computer simulation models into an integrated water and wind erosion prediction system. In a physically- based model, many of the processes which must be simulated for wind and water erosion computations are the same, e.g., climate, water balance, runoff, plant growth, etc. Model components which specifically deal with the wind or water detachment, transport and deposition processes are those that must differ, as well as any necessary parameterization of input variables (e.g., adjusted soil erodibilities, critical shear stresses, etc.) for those components. This presentation describes current efforts towards development of a combined wind and water erosion model, based in part upon technologies present in the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) and the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) models. Initial efforts during the past two years have resulted in modular modeling components that allow for prediction of infiltration, surface runoff, and water erosion at a hillslope scale within an Object Modeling System. Additional components currently in development include wind detachment at a single field point, continuous water balance, and unified plant growth. Challenges in this project are many, and include adequate field

  9. Developing Project Duration Models in Software Engineering

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Pierre Bourque; Serge Oligny; Alain Abran; Bertrand Fournier

    2007-01-01

    Based on the empirical analysis of data contained in the International Software Benchmarking Standards Group(ISBSG) repository, this paper presents software engineering project duration models based on project effort. Duration models are built for the entire dataset and for subsets of projects developed for personal computer, mid-range and mainframeplatforms. Duration models are also constructed for projects requiring fewer than 400 person-hours of effort and for projectsre quiring more than 400 person-hours of effort. The usefulness of adding the maximum number of assigned resources as asecond independent variable to explain duration is also analyzed. The opportunity to build duration models directly fromproject functional size in function points is investigated as well.

  10. Multi-Agent Modeling in Managing Six Sigma Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Y. Chau

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multi-agent model is proposed for considering the human resources factor in decision making in relation to the six sigma project. The proposed multi-agent system is expected to increase the acccuracy of project prioritization and to stabilize the human resources service level. A simulation of the proposed multiagent model is conducted. The results show that a multi-agent model which takes into consideration human resources when making decisions about project selection and project team formation is important in enabling efficient and effective project management. The multi-agent modeling approach provides an alternative approach for improving communication and the autonomy of six sigma projects in business organizations.

  11. The INTRACOIN model comparison project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawson, G.

    1982-01-01

    The International Nuclide Transport Code Intercomparison (INTRACOIN) project is investigating the different models and associated computer codes describing the transport of radionuclides in flowing ground-water following the disposal of solid radioactive wastes in geologic formations. Level I of the project has shown good agreement in the numerical accuracy of most of the codes. In Level II the ability of the codes to model field experiments with radioactive tracers will be compared. Level III will show to what extent the adoption of different models and computer codes for the transport of radionuclides with ground water affects the results of repository assessments. (U.K.)

  12. Sharks, Minnows, and Wheelbarrows: Calculus Modeling Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present two very active applied modeling projects that were successfully implemented in a first semester calculus course at Hollins University. The first project uses a logistic equation to model the spread of a new disease such as swine flu. The second project is a human take on the popular article "Do Dogs Know…

  13. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  14. EXPENSES FORECASTING MODEL IN UNIVERSITY PROJECTS PLANNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei A. Arustamov

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with mathematical model presentation of cash flows in project funding. We describe different types of expenses linked to university project activities. Problems of project budgeting that contribute most uncertainty have been revealed. As an example of the model implementation we consider calculation of vacation allowance expenses for project participants. We define problems of forecast for funds reservation: calculation based on methodology established by the Ministry of Education and Science calculation according to the vacation schedule and prediction of the most probable amount. A stochastic model for vacation allowance expenses has been developed. We have proposed methods and solution of the problems that increase the accuracy of forecasting for funds reservation based on 2015 data.

  15. Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, S.; Ott, S.; Pena, A.; Berg, J.; Nielsen, M.; Rathmann, O.; Joergensen, H.

    2011-11-15

    The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly, both with respect to the densely packed turbines and the large fetches needed to describe the collective shadow effects of one farm to the next. Further the project has developed the necessary software for the use of the models. Guidelines with recommendations for the use of the models are included in the model deliverables. The project has been carried out as a collaborative project between Risoe DTU, DONG, Vattenfall, DNV and VESTAS, and it has been financed by energinet.dk grant no. 10086. (Author)

  16. How well does the Post-fire Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) really work?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robichaud, Peter; Elliot, William; Lewis, Sarah; Miller, Mary Ellen

    2016-04-01

    The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective postfire erosion mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) was developed to assist post fire assessment teams identify high erosion risk areas and effectiveness of various mitigation treatments to reduce that risk. ERMiT is a web-based application that uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) technology to estimate erosion, in probabilistic terms, on burned and recovering forest, range, and chaparral lands with and without the application of mitigation treatments. User inputs are processed by ERMiT to combine rain event variability with spatial and temporal variabilities of hillslope burn severity and soil properties which are then used as WEPP inputs. Since 2007, the model has been used in making hundreds of land management decisions in the US and elsewhere. We use eight published field study sites in the Western US to compare ERMiT predictions to observed hillslope erosion rates. Most sites experience only a few rainfall events that produced runoff and sediment except for a California site with a Mediterranean climate. When hillslope erosion occurred, significant correlations occurred between the observed hillslope erosion and those predicted by ERMiT. Significant correlation occurred for most mitigation treatments as well as the five recovery years. These model validation results suggest reasonable estimates of probabilistic post-fire hillslope sediment delivery when compared to observation.

  17. Financial and organizational models of NPP construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, Timur

    2010-01-01

    The recent evolution of financial and organizational models of NPP projects can be truly reputed to open a new page of the world market of NPP construction. The definition of the concrete model is based mostly on specific cooperation backgrounds and current terms and conditions under which the particular NPP project is being evolved. In this article the most commonly known strategies and schemes of financing structuring for export NPP construction projects are scrutinized. Special attention is paid to the analysis of BOO/BOT models which are based on the public-private partnership. Most BOO/BOT projects in the power sector has Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) as an integral part of them. The PPA key principles are studied here as well. The flexibility and adaptability of the public-private partnership models for financing and organization of the NPP projects contributes substantially to the competitiveness of the NPP projects especially under current economic conditions. (orig.)

  18. Model county ordinance for wind projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bain, D.A. [Oregon Office of Energy, Portland, OR (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Permitting is a crucial step in the development cycle of a wind project and permits affect the timing, cost, location, feasibility, layout, and impacts of wind projects. Counties often have the lead responsibility for permitting yet few have appropriate siting regulations for wind projects. A model ordinance allows a county to quickly adopt appropriate permitting procedures. The model county wind ordinance developed for use by northwest states is generally applicable across the country and counties seeking to adopt siting or zoning regulations for wind will find it a good starting place. The model includes permitting procedures for wind measurement devices and two types of wind systems. Both discretionary and nondiscretionary standards apply to wind systems and a conditional use permit would be issued. The standards, criteria, conditions for approval, and process procedures are defined for each. Adaptation examples for the four northwest states are provided along with a model Wind Resource Overlay Zone.

  19. Dealing with project complexity by matrix-based propagation modelling for project risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Fang , Chao; Marle , Franck

    2012-01-01

    International audience; Engineering projects are facing a growing complexity and are thus exposed to numerous and interdependent risks. In this paper, we present a quantitative method for modelling propagation behaviour in the project risk network. The construction of the network requires the involvement of the project manager and related experts using the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) method. A matrix-based risk propagation model is introduced to calculate risk propagation and thus to re-eva...

  20. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project and its environment. This limits the ability of an organisation to manage the larger dynamics between projects and organisations, over time, and between projects. The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to use literature on organisational theory to provide a more systematic understanding of this area. The organisational facilitators required to obtain value from a project are categorised, and the processes required to develop those facilitators are defined. This formalisation facilitates generalisation between projects and highlights any time and path dependencies required in developing organisational facilitators. The model therefore has the potential to contribute to the development of IS project management theory within dynamic organisational contexts. Six cases illustrate how this model could be used.

  1. A functional-dynamic reflection on participatory processes in modeling projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Roman

    2015-12-01

    The participation of nonscientists in modeling projects/studies is increasingly employed to fulfill different functions. However, it is not well investigated if and how explicitly these functions and the dynamics of a participatory process are reflected by modeling projects in particular. In this review study, I explore participatory modeling projects from a functional-dynamic process perspective. The main differences among projects relate to the functions of participation-most often, more than one per project can be identified, along with the degree of explicit reflection (i.e., awareness and anticipation) on the dynamic process perspective. Moreover, two main approaches are revealed: participatory modeling covering diverse approaches and companion modeling. It becomes apparent that the degree of reflection on the participatory process itself is not always explicit and perfectly visible in the descriptions of the modeling projects. Thus, the use of common protocols or templates is discussed to facilitate project planning, as well as the publication of project results. A generic template may help, not in providing details of a project or model development, but in explicitly reflecting on the participatory process. It can serve to systematize the particular project's approach to stakeholder collaboration, and thus quality management.

  2. A Stochastic Multi-Media Model of Microbial Transport in Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeghiazarian, L.; Safwat, A.; Whiteaker, T.; Teklitz, A.; Nietch, C.; Maidment, D. R.; Best, E. P.

    2012-12-01

    Fecal contamination is the leading cause of surface-water impairment in the US, and fecal pathogens are capable of triggering massive outbreaks of gastrointestinal disease. The difficulty in prediction of water contamination has its roots in the stochastic variability of fecal pathogens in the environment, and in the complexity of microbial dynamics and interactions on the soil surface and in water. To address these challenges, we have developed a stochastic model whereby the transport of microorganisms in watersheds is considered in two broad categories: microorganisms that are attached to mineral or organic substrates in suspended sediment; and unattached microorganisms suspended in overland flow. The interactions of microorganisms with soil particles on the soil surface and in the overland flow lead to transitions of microorganisms between solid and aqueous media. The strength of attachment of microorganisms to soil particles is determined by the chemical characteristics of soils which are highly correlated with the particle size. The particle size class distribution in the suspended sediment is predicted by the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP). The model is integrated with ArcGIS, resulting in a general transport-modeling framework applicable to a variety of biological and chemical surface water contaminants. Simulations are carried out for a case study of contaminant transport in the East Fork Little Miami River Watershed in Ohio. Model results include the spatial probability distribution of microbes in the watershed and can be used for assessment of (1) mechanisms dominating microbial transport, and (2) time and location of highest likelihood of microbial occurrence, thus yielding information on best water sampling strategies.

  3. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  4. Knowledge Model: Project Knowledge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter; Grolin, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    The Knowledge model for project management serves several goals:Introducing relevant concepts of project management area for software development (Section 1). Reviewing and understanding the real case requirements from the industrial perspective. (Section 2). Giving some preliminary suggestions...... for usage in KIWI system (Sections 3). This document is intended for technological partners to understand how for example the software development concepts can be applied to a semantic wiki framework....

  5. Solid Waste Projection Model: Model user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stiles, D.L.; Crow, V.L.

    1990-08-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford company (WHC) specifically to address solid waste management issues at the Hanford Central Waste Complex (HCWC). This document, one of six documents supporting the SWPM system, contains a description of the system and instructions for preparing to use SWPM and operating Version 1 of the model. 4 figs., 1 tab

  6. PROJECT ACTIVITY ANALYSIS WITHOUT THE NETWORK MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Munapo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper presents a new procedure for analysing and managing activity sequences in projects. The new procedure determines critical activities, critical path, start times, free floats, crash limits, and other useful information without the use of the network model. Even though network models have been successfully used in project management so far, there are weaknesses associated with the use. A network is not easy to generate, and dummies that are usually associated with it make the network diagram complex – and dummy activities have no meaning in the original project management problem. The network model for projects can be avoided while still obtaining all the useful information that is required for project management. What are required are the activities, their accurate durations, and their predecessors.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsing beskryf ’n nuwerwetse metode vir die ontleding en bestuur van die sekwensiële aktiwiteite van projekte. Die voorgestelde metode bepaal kritiese aktiwiteite, die kritieke pad, aanvangstye, speling, verhasing, en ander groothede sonder die gebruik van ’n netwerkmodel. Die metode funksioneer bevredigend in die praktyk, en omseil die administratiewe rompslomp van die tradisionele netwerkmodelle.

  7. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Communication skills and leadership model, construction project ..... help a manager handle stress and break tension (Gido & Clements,. 2012: 331; Harrin .... production and management of projects, the higher the demand for.

  8. PROBLEMS OF VALUE-ORIENTED FORMATION OF PROJECT PRODUCT’S MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Тигран Георгиевич ГРИГОРЯН

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Problems of formation of the project output model related to the complexity of information transmission in the communication between the project participants and stakeholders are considered. The concept of forming a project output model based on allocation of stages of model developing and specification and efficiency of the formation of a model that takes into account the need to plan the project output value creation and transferring to the sponsor and consumers is proposed.

  9. Modelling of project cash flow on construction projects in Malang city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djatmiko, Bambang

    2017-09-01

    Contractors usually prepare a project cash flow (PCF) on construction projects. The flow of cash in and cash out within a construction project may vary depending on the owner, contract documents, and construction service providers who have their own authority. Other factors affecting the PCF are down payment, termyn, progress schedule, material schedule, equipment schedule, manpower schedules, and wages of workers and subcontractors. This study aims to describe the cash inflow and cash outflow based on the empirical data obtained from contractors, develop a PCF model based on Halpen & Woodhead's PCF model, and investigate whether or not there is a significant difference between the Halpen & Woodhead's PCF model and the empirical PCF model. Based on the researcher's observation, the PCF management has never been implemented by the contractors in Malang in serving their clients (owners). The research setting is in Malang City because physical development in all field and there are many new construction service providers. The findings in this current study are summarised as follows: 1) Cash in included current assets (20%), owner's down payment (20%), termyin I (5%-25%), termyin II (20%), termyin III (25%), termyin IV (25%) and retention (5%). Cash out included direct cost (65%), indirect cost (20%), and profit + informal cost(15%), 2)the construction work involving the empirical PCF model in this study was started with the funds obtained from DP or current assets and 3) The two models bear several similarities in the upward trends of direct cost, indirect cost, Pro Ic, progress billing, and S-curve. The difference between the two models is the occurrence of overdraft in the Halpen and Woodhead's PCF model only.

  10. Multi-model-based Access Control in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Hilbert

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available During the execution of large scale construction projects performed by Virtual Organizations (VO, relatively complex technical models have to be exchanged between the VO members. For linking the trade and transfer of these models, a so-called multi-model container format was developed. Considering the different skills and tasks of the involved partners, it is not necessary for them to know all the models in every technical detailing. Furthermore, the model size can lead to a delay in communication. In this paper an approach is presented for defining model cut-outs according to the current project context. Dynamic dependencies to the project context as well as static dependencies on the organizational structure are mapped in a context-sensitive rule. As a result, an approach for dynamic filtering of multi-models is obtained which ensures, together with a filtering service, that the involved VO members get a simplified view of complex multi-models as well as sufficient permissions depending on their tasks.

  11. Finite detector based projection model for super resolution CT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Hengyong; Wang, Ge [Wake Forest Univ. Health Sciences, Winston-Salem, NC (United States). Dept. of Radiology; Virgina Tech, Blacksburg, VA (United States). Biomedical Imaging Div.

    2011-07-01

    For finite detector and focal spot sizes, here we propose a projection model for super resolution CT. First, for a given X-ray source point, a projection datum is modeled as an area integral over a narrow fan-beam connecting the detector elemental borders and the X-ray source point. Then, the final projection value is expressed as the integral obtained in the first step over the whole focal spot support. An ordered-subset simultaneous algebraic reconstruction technique (OS-SART) is developed using the proposed projection model. In the numerical simulation, our method produces super spatial resolution and suppresses high-frequency artifacts. (orig.)

  12. Research on evaluation of enterprise project culture based on Denison model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yucheng Zeng

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to build enterprise project culture evaluation model and search for the best evaluation method for Chinese enterprise project culture on the basis of studying and drawing lessons from enterprise culture evaluation theory and method at home and abroad. Design/methodology/approach: Referring to the Denison enterprise culture evaluation model, this paper optimizes it according to the difference of enterprise project culture, designs the enterprise project culture evaluation model and proves the practicability of the model through empirical. Finding: This paper finds that it`s more applicable to use the Denison model for enterprise project culture evaluation through the comparative analysis of domestic and foreign enterprise culture evaluation theory and method, the systematic project culture management framework of Chinese enterprises has not yet formed through empirical research, and four factors in enterprise project culture have important influence on project operation performance improvement. Research limitations/implications: The research on evaluation of enterprise project culture based on Denison model is a preliminary attempt, the design of evaluation index system, evaluation model and scale structure also need to be improved, but the thinking of this paper in this field provides a valuable reference for future research. Practical Implications: This paper provides the support of theory and practice for evaluating the present situation of enterprise project culture construction and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of project culture, which contributes to the "dialectical therapy" of enterprise project management, enterprise management and enterprise project culture construction. Originality/value: The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of Denison enterprise culture model. Combining with the actual situation of enterprises, this paper also builds the evaluation model for

  13. Can model weighting improve probabilistic projections of climate change?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raeisaenen, Jouni; Ylhaeisi, Jussi S. [Department of Physics, P.O. Box 48, University of Helsinki (Finland)

    2012-10-15

    Recently, Raeisaenen and co-authors proposed a weighting scheme in which the relationship between observable climate and climate change within a multi-model ensemble determines to what extent agreement with observations affects model weights in climate change projection. Within the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) dataset, this scheme slightly improved the cross-validated accuracy of deterministic projections of temperature change. Here the same scheme is applied to probabilistic temperature change projection, under the strong limiting assumption that the CMIP3 ensemble spans the actual modeling uncertainty. Cross-validation suggests that probabilistic temperature change projections may also be improved by this weighting scheme. However, the improvement relative to uniform weighting is smaller in the tail-sensitive logarithmic score than in the continuous ranked probability score. The impact of the weighting on projection of real-world twenty-first century temperature change is modest in most parts of the world. However, in some areas mainly over the high-latitude oceans, the mean of the distribution is substantially changed and/or the distribution is considerably narrowed. The weights of individual models vary strongly with location, so that a model that receives nearly zero weight in some area may still get a large weight elsewhere. Although the details of this variation are method-specific, it suggests that the relative strengths of different models may be difficult to harness by weighting schemes that use spatially uniform model weights. (orig.)

  14. DEVELOPMENT MODEL OF PATISSERIE PROJECT-BASED LEARNING

    OpenAIRE

    Ana Ana; Lutfhiyah Nurlaela

    2013-01-01

    The study aims to find a model of patisserie project-based learning with production approach that can improve effectiveness of patisserie learning. Delphi Technique, Cohen's Kappa and percentages of agreements were used to assess model of patisserie project based learning. Data collection techniques employed in the study were questionnaire, check list worksheet, observation, and interview sheets. Subjects were 13 lectures of expertise food and nutrition and 91 students of Food and Nutrition ...

  15. Modelling the Reduction of Project Making Duration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleinik Pavel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article points out why earlier patterns of investment process were ineffective in developing the construction projects and shows sources for reducing of its total duration. It describes the procedure of statistical modeling and obtaining medium-term time parameters required for modern pattern of project-making; offers design formulas for assessment of total time required for project-making as well as for its main stages; reveals advantage of modern system of project-making against traditional one by comparing indicators of their duration.

  16. Application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model to simulate streamflow in a PNW forest watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. Srivastava; M. Dobre; E. Bruner; W. J. Elliot; I. S. Miller; J. Q. Wu

    2011-01-01

    Assessment of water yields from watersheds into streams and rivers is critical to managing water supply and supporting aquatic life. Surface runoff typically contributes the most to peak discharge of a hydrograph while subsurface flow dominates the falling limb of hydrograph and baseflow contributes to streamflow from shallow unconfined aquifers primarily during the...

  17. Cash flow forecasting model for nuclear power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Wei; Guo Jilin

    2002-01-01

    Cash flow forecasting is very important for owners and contractors of nuclear power projects to arrange the capital and to decrease the capital cost. The factors related to contractor cash flow forecasting are analyzed and a cash flow forecasting model is presented which is suitable for both contractors and owners. The model is efficiently solved using a cost-schedule data integration scheme described. A program is developed based on the model and verified with real project data. The result indicates that the model is efficient and effective

  18. International collaborative fire modeling project (ICFMP). Summary of benchmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roewekamp, Marina; Klein-Hessling, Walter; Dreisbach, Jason; McGrattan, Kevin; Miles, Stewart; Plys, Martin; Riese, Olaf

    2008-09-01

    This document was developed in the frame of the 'International Collaborative Project to Evaluate Fire Models for Nuclear Power Plant Applications' (ICFMP). The objective of this collaborative project is to share the knowledge and resources of various organizations to evaluate and improve the state of the art of fire models for use in nuclear power plant fire safety, fire hazard analysis and fire risk assessment. The project is divided into two phases. The objective of the first phase is to evaluate the capabilities of current fire models for fire safety analysis in nuclear power plants. The second phase will extend the validation database of those models and implement beneficial improvements to the models that are identified in the first phase of ICFMP. In the first phase, more than 20 expert institutions from six countries were represented in the collaborative project. This Summary Report gives an overview on the results of the first phase of the international collaborative project. The main objective of the project was to evaluate the capability of fire models to analyze a variety of fire scenarios typical for nuclear power plants (NPP). The evaluation of the capability of fire models to analyze these scenarios was conducted through a series of in total five international Benchmark Exercises. Different types of models were used by the participating expert institutions from five countries. The technical information that will be useful for fire model users, developers and further experts is summarized in this document. More detailed information is provided in the corresponding technical reference documents for the ICFMP Benchmark Exercises No. 1 to 5. The objective of these exercises was not to compare the capabilities and strengths of specific models, address issues specific to a model, nor to recommend specific models over others. This document is not intended to provide guidance to users of fire models. Guidance on the use of fire models is currently being

  19. Introduction to Financial Projection Models. Business Management Instructional Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomeroy, Robert W., III

    This guidebook and teacher's guide accompany a personal computer software program and introduce the key elements of financial projection modeling to project the financial statements of an industrial enterprise. The student will then build a model on an electronic spreadsheet. The guidebook teaches the purpose of a financial model and the steps…

  20. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    KAUST Repository

    Kravitz, Ben

    2011-01-31

    To evaluate the effects of stratospheric geoengineering with sulphate aerosols, we propose standard forcing scenarios to be applied to multiple climate models to compare their results and determine the robustness of their responses. Thus far, different modeling groups have used different forcing scenarios for both global warming and geoengineering, complicating the comparison of results. We recommend four experiments to explore the extent to which geoengineering might offset climate change projected in some of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 experiments. These experiments focus on stratospheric aerosols, but future experiments under this framework may focus on different means of geoengineering. © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society.

  1. Technology Investments in the NASA Entry Systems Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnhardt, Michael; Wright, Michael; Hughes, Monica

    2017-01-01

    The Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) technology development project, initiated in 2012 under NASAs Game Changing Development (GCD) Program, is engaged in maturation of fundamental research developing aerosciences, materials, and integrated systems products for entry, descent, and landing(EDL)technologies [1]. To date, the ESM project has published over 200 papers in these areas, comprising the bulk of NASAs research program for EDL modeling. This presentation will provide an overview of the projects successes and challenges, and an assessment of future investments in EDL modeling and simulation relevant to NASAs mission

  2. Streamline Your Project: A Lifecycle Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viren, John

    2000-01-01

    Discusses one approach to project organization providing a baseline lifecycle model for multimedia/CBT development. This variation of the standard four-phase model of Analysis, Design, Development, and Implementation includes a Pre-Analysis phase, called Definition, and a Post-Implementation phase, known as Maintenance. Each phase is described.…

  3. The performance indicators of model projects. A special evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-11-01

    As a result of the acknowledgment of the key role of the Model Project concept in the Agency's Technical Co-operation Programme, the present review of the objectives of the model projects which are now in operation, was undertaken, as recommended by the Board of Governors, to determine at an early stage: the extent to which the present objectives have been defined in a measurable way; whether objectively verifiable performance indicators and success criteria had been identified for each project; whether mechanisms to obtain feedback on the achievements had been foreseen. The overall budget for the 23 model projects, as approved from 1994 to 1998, amounts to $32,557,560, of which 45% is funded by Technical Co-operation Fund. This represents an average investment of about $8 million per year, that is over 15% of the annual TC budget. The conceptual importance of the Model Project initiative, as well as the significant funds allocated to them, led the Secretariat to plan the methods to be used to determine their socio-economic impact. 1 tab

  4. A model of the environmental impacts of hydropower projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemppainen, T.; Haemaelaeinen, I.

    1992-01-01

    The aim was to create a model of the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects in Finland. To illustrate the effects of hydropower projects a checklist in the form of matrice was constructed. In this matrice all issues that could be significant in future hydropower projects were collected. Stable physical environmental changes are the starting-point for this matrice. The temporary change of hydropower constructions have also been under consideration. These are mainly environmental changes during construction. In chapter two the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects physical environmental changes were examined. In chapter three the matrice was applied to some example cases. The cases were chosen to represent future hydropower projects. In addition these example cases represent urban areas, rural areas and uninhabited areas. The example cases were the extension of Tainionkoski hydropower plant at Vuoksi river, the modernization of Aeetsae power plant at Kokemaeenjoki river, the modernization of Stadsfors power plant at Lapuanjoki river in the centre of Uusikaarlepyy town and the construction of Kaitfors power plant at Perhonjoki river. Conclusions from usability of the model can be drawn on the ground of the example cases. The purpose of the model is to produce a checklist of estimated environmental effects in hydropower project of various kinds. Examination of issues within the model depends on local circumstances. Endangered animal and plant species, for example, can be studied and estimated only if endangered animal and plant species exist in the area of hydropower plant. Furthermore, the direction and extent of environmental effects depend on the local circumstances. The model is mainly a checklist of environmental effects caused by hydropower plant projects

  5. Modelling in Evaluating a Working Life Project in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarja, Anneli; Janhonen, Sirpa; Havukainen, Pirjo; Vesterinen, Anne

    2012-01-01

    This article describes an evaluation method based on collaboration between the higher education, a care home and university, in a R&D project. The aim of the project was to elaborate modelling as a tool of developmental evaluation for innovation and competence in project cooperation. The approach was based on activity theory. Modelling enabled a…

  6. Myanmar Model Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Heron, John

    1998-01-01

    The National Radiation Laboratory was approached by the IAEA in 1997 to provide assistance to the government of Myanmar, as part of the Model Project, in setting up an appropriate regulatory framework for radiation protection. To this end John Le Heron spent 3 weeks in late 1997 based at the Atomic Energy Department of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Yangon, assessing the existing legal framework, assisting with the review and design of the legal framework for consistency with the Basic Safety Standards, and assisting in the preparation of a system of notification, authorisation and inspection of radiation practices. (author)

  7. The PASS project architectural model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Day, C.T.; Loken, S.; Macfarlane, J.F.

    1994-01-01

    The PASS project has as its goal the implementation of solutions to the foreseen data access problems of the next generation of scientific experiments. The architectural model results from an evaluation of the operational and technical requirements and is described in terms of an abstract reference model, an implementation model and a discussion of some design aspects. The abstract reference model describes a system that matches the requirements in terms of its components and the mechanisms by which they communicate, but does not discuss policy or design issues that would be necessary to match the model to an actual implementation. Some of these issues are discussed, but more detailed design and simulation work will be necessary before choices can be made

  8. Land use and climate change impacts on runoff and soil erosion at the hillslope scale in the Brazilian Cerrad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changes in land use and climate can influence runoff and soil erosion, threatening soil and water conservation in the Cerrado biome in Brazil. The adoption of a process-based model was necessary due to the lack of long-term observed data. Our goals were to calibrate the WEPP (Water Erosion Predictio...

  9. The Current State of Predicting Furrow Irrigation Erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    There continues to be a need to predict furrow irrigation erosion to estimate on- and off-site impacts of irrigation management. The objective of this paper is to review the current state of furrow erosion prediction technology considering four models: SISL, WEPP, WinSRFR and APEX. SISL is an empiri...

  10. Development of a funding, cost, and spending model for satellite projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Jesse P.

    1989-01-01

    The need for a predictive budget/funging model is obvious. The current models used by the Resource Analysis Office (RAO) are used to predict the total costs of satellite projects. An effort to extend the modeling capabilities from total budget analysis to total budget and budget outlays over time analysis was conducted. A statistical based and data driven methodology was used to derive and develop the model. Th budget data for the last 18 GSFC-sponsored satellite projects were analyzed and used to build a funding model which would describe the historical spending patterns. This raw data consisted of dollars spent in that specific year and their 1989 dollar equivalent. This data was converted to the standard format used by the RAO group and placed in a database. A simple statistical analysis was performed to calculate the gross statistics associated with project length and project cost ant the conditional statistics on project length and project cost. The modeling approach used is derived form the theory of embedded statistics which states that properly analyzed data will produce the underlying generating function. The process of funding large scale projects over extended periods of time is described by Life Cycle Cost Models (LCCM). The data was analyzed to find a model in the generic form of a LCCM. The model developed is based on a Weibull function whose parameters are found by both nonlinear optimization and nonlinear regression. In order to use this model it is necessary to transform the problem from a dollar/time space to a percentage of total budget/time space. This transformation is equivalent to moving to a probability space. By using the basic rules of probability, the validity of both the optimization and the regression steps are insured. This statistically significant model is then integrated and inverted. The resulting output represents a project schedule which relates the amount of money spent to the percentage of project completion.

  11. Project Management in Public Administration. TPM – Total Project Management Maturity Model. The Case of Slovenian Public Administration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordana ŽURGA

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to present the importance of project management for the functioning of public administration, and its contribution to the realization of the developmental goals of the government. For this, integration of strategic management and project management is of vital importance. The methodology used is a combination of literature review, a case study of project management in public administration of the Republic of Slovenia, and development of a maturity model of project management in public administration, with its verifi cation on the case of Slovenia. The main contribution of the study is development of TPM – Total Project Management maturity model for public administration. Upon the TPM maturity model, project management in Slovene public administration is assessed and discussed. Out of fi ve maturity levels, the results for project management in Slovene public administration are: management of projects – level 2 (initiated, management of programs of projects – level 2 (initiated, management of portfolios of projects – level 3 (implemented, organizational support for project management – level 3 (implemented, HRM for project management – level 2 (initiated, and integration of project management and strategic management – level 3 (implemented. General fi ndings and recommendations in this respect are drawn, together with indicated areas for possible further research and investigation.

  12. Risk Assessment of Engineering Project Financing Based on PPP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Qiuli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, the project financing channel is single, and the urban facilities are in short supply, and the risk assessment and prevention mechanism of financing should be further improved to reduce the risk of project financing. In view of this, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of project financing risk which combined the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process is established. The scientificalness and effectiveness of the model are verified by the example of the world port project in Luohe city, and it provides basis and reference for engineering project financing based on PPP mode.

  13. COGNITIVE MODELING AS A METHOD OF QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF IT PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Інна Ігорівна ОНИЩЕНКО

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The example project implementing automated CRM-system demonstrated the possibility and features of cognitive modeling in the qualitative analysis of project risks to determine their additional features. Proposed construction of cognitive models of project risks in information technology within the qualitative risk analysis, additional assessments as a method of ranking risk to characterize the relationship between them. The proposed cognitive model reflecting the relationship between the risk of IT project to assess the negative and the positive impact of certain risks for the remaining risks of project implementation of the automated CRM-system. The ability to influence the risk of a fact of other project risks can increase the priority of risk with low impact on results due to its relationship with other project risks.

  14. Process simulation and parametric modeling for strategic project management

    CERN Document Server

    Morales, Peter J

    2013-01-01

    Process Simulation and Parametric Modeling for Strategic Project Management will offer CIOs, CTOs and Software Development Managers, IT Graduate Students an introduction to a set of technologies that will help them understand how to better plan software development projects, manage risk and have better insight into the complexities of the software development process.A novel methodology will be introduced that allows a software development manager to better plan and access risks in the early planning of a project.  By providing a better model for early software development estimation and softw

  15. MODEL OF INTEGRATED VALUE OF PROJECTS IN THE FIELD OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Наталія Ігорівна БОРИСОВА

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Development of alternative energy sources requires the implementation of complex problems, the solution of which is necessary to apply the project approach. The uniqueness of alternative energy projects (AEP necessitates individual approach to evaluating the effectiveness of each. The paper contains the results of the project management features's analysis in the field of alternative energy, determining the values and developing of the value management integrated conceptual model of AEP. In assessing the effectiveness of AEP considered the socio-economic and commercial aspects. Value management integrated conceptual model of AEP was obtained by combining the classical model of the project management goals with the project values model "Five "E" and two "A". The classical model of the project management goals have been complemented with risk parameters.

  16. Partitioning uncertainty in streamflow projections under nonstationary model conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2018-02-01

    Assessing the impacts of Land Use (LU) and climate change on future streamflow projections is necessary for efficient management of water resources. However, model projections are burdened with significant uncertainty arising from various sources. Most of the previous studies have considered climate models and scenarios as major sources of uncertainty, but uncertainties introduced by land use change and hydrologic model assumptions are rarely investigated. In this paper an attempt is made to segregate the contribution from (i) general circulation models (GCMs), (ii) emission scenarios, (iii) land use scenarios, (iv) stationarity assumption of the hydrologic model, and (v) internal variability of the processes, to overall uncertainty in streamflow projections using analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Generally, most of the impact assessment studies are carried out with unchanging hydrologic model parameters in future. It is, however, necessary to address the nonstationarity in model parameters with changing land use and climate. In this paper, a regression based methodology is presented to obtain the hydrologic model parameters with changing land use and climate scenarios in future. The Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India is used as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is set-up over the basin, under nonstationary conditions. Results indicate that model parameters vary with time, thereby invalidating the often-used assumption of model stationarity. The streamflow in UGB under the nonstationary model condition is found to reduce in future. The flows are also found to be sensitive to changes in land use. Segregation results suggest that model stationarity assumption and GCMs along with their interactions with emission scenarios, act as dominant sources of uncertainty. This paper provides a generalized framework for hydrologists to examine stationarity assumption of models before considering them

  17. Quark shell model using projection operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ullah, N.

    1988-01-01

    Using the projection operators in the quark shell model, the wave functions for proton are calculated and expressions for calculating the wave function of neutron and also magnetic moment of proton and neutron are derived. (M.G.B.)

  18. The Lunar Phases Project: A Mental Model-Based Observational Project for Undergraduate Nonscience Majors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Angela Osterman; Mon, Manuel J.; Hibbard, Susan T.

    2011-01-01

    We present our Lunar Phases Project, an ongoing effort utilizing students' actual observations within a mental model building framework to improve student understanding of the causes and process of the lunar phases. We implement this project with a sample of undergraduate, nonscience major students enrolled in a midsized public university located…

  19. Project M: Scale Model of Lunar Landing Site of Apollo 17

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Hollie; Crain, Timothy P.

    2010-01-01

    The basis of the project was creating a scale model representation of the Apollo 17 lunar landing site. Vital components included surface slope characteristics, crater sizes and locations, prominent rocks, and lighting conditions. The model was made for Project M support when evaluating approach and terminal descent as well as when planning surface operations with respect to the terrain. The project had five main mi lestones during the length of the project. The first was examining the best method to use to re-create the Apollo 17 landing site and then reviewing research fmdings with Dr. Tim Crain and EO staff which occurred on June 25, 2010 at a meeting. The second step was formulating a construction plan, budget, and schedule and then presenting the plan for authority to proceed which occurred on July 6,2010. The third part was building a prototype to test materials and building processes which were completed by July 13, 2010. Next was assembling the landing site model and presenting a mid-term construction status report on July 29, 2010. The fifth and final milestone was demonstrating the model and presenting an exit pitch which happened on August 4, 2010. The project was very technical: it needed a lot of research about moon topography, lighting conditions and angles of the sun on the moon, Apollo 17, and Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT), before starting the actual building process. This required using Spreadsheets, searching internet sources and conducting personal meetings with project representatives. This information assisted the interns in deciding the scale of the model with respect to cracks, craters and rocks and their relative sizes as the objects mentioned could interfere with any of the Lunar Landers: Apollo, Project M and future Landers. The project concluded with the completion of a three dimensional scale model of the Apollo 17 Lunar landing site. This model assists Project M members because they can now visualize

  20. Musculoskeletal Modelling and the Physiome Project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fernandez, Justin; Zhang, Ju; Shim, Vickie; Munro, Jacob T.; Sartori, Massimo; Besier, Thor; Lloyd, David G.; Nickerson, David P.; Hunter, Peter; Pivonka, Peter

    2018-01-01

    This chapter presents developments as part of the International Union of Physiological Sciences (IUPS) Physiome Project. Models are multiscale, multispatial and multiphysics, hence, suitable numerical tools and platforms have been developed to address these challenges for the musculoskeletal system.

  1. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database (Version 1.4)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.; Cillan, T.

    1993-09-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). The SWPM system provides a modeling and analysis environment that supports decisions in the process of evaluating various solid waste management alternatives. This document, one of a series describing the SWPM system, contains detailed information regarding the software and data structures utilized in developing the SWPM Version 1.4 Database. This document is intended for use by experienced database specialists and supports database maintenance, utility development, and database enhancement. Those interested in using the SWPM database should refer to the SWPM Database User's Guide. This document is available from the PNL Task M Project Manager (D. L. Stiles, 509-372-4358), the PNL Task L Project Manager (L. L. Armacost, 509-372-4304), the WHC Restoration Projects Section Manager (509-372-1443), or the WHC Waste Characterization Manager (509-372-1193)

  2. Integrating semantic data models with project management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wachter, R

    1982-01-01

    Summary form only given, as follows. The development of a data model for a project on the test and certification of computer-based information systems required a more expressive data model than that supplied by either the network, hierarchical or relational models. A data model was developed to describe the work environment and the work itself. This model is based on the entity-relationship data model of Chen and on heuristic principles of knowledge organisation used in artificial intelligence. The ER data model is reviewed and the extensions to the model are discussed.

  3. A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR IMPROVED PROJECT SELECTION AND PRIORITISATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Viljoen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Project portfolio management processes are often designed and operated as a series of stages (or project phases and gates. However, the flow of such a process is often slow, characterised by queues waiting for a gate decision and by repeated work from previous stages waiting for additional information or for re-processing. In this paper the authors propose a conceptual model that applies supply chain and constraint management principles to the project portfolio management process. An advantage of the proposed model is that it provides the ability to select and prioritise projects without undue changes to project schedules. This should result in faster flow through the system.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Prosesse om portefeuljes van projekte te bestuur word normaalweg ontwerp en bedryf as ’n reeks fases en hekke. Die vloei deur so ’n proses is dikwels stadig en word gekenmerk deur toue wat wag vir besluite by die hekke en ook deur herwerk van vorige fases wat wag vir verdere inligting of vir herprosessering. In hierdie artikel word ‘n konseptuele model voorgestel. Die model berus op die beginsels van voorsieningskettings sowel as van beperkingsbestuur, en bied die voordeel dat projekte geselekteer en geprioritiseer kan word sonder onnodige veranderinge aan projekskedules. Dit behoort te lei tot versnelde vloei deur die stelsel.

  4. Project Management Life Cycle Models to Improve Management in High-rise Construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burmistrov, Andrey; Siniavina, Maria; Iliashenko, Oksana

    2018-03-01

    The paper describes a possibility to improve project management in high-rise buildings construction through the use of various Project Management Life Cycle Models (PMLC models) based on traditional and agile project management approaches. Moreover, the paper describes, how the split the whole large-scale project to the "project chain" will create the factor for better manageability of the large-scale buildings project and increase the efficiency of the activities of all participants in such projects.

  5. Project Management Life Cycle Models to Improve Management in High-rise Construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burmistrov Andrey

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes a possibility to improve project management in high-rise buildings construction through the use of various Project Management Life Cycle Models (PMLC models based on traditional and agile project management approaches. Moreover, the paper describes, how the split the whole large-scale project to the "project chain" will create the factor for better manageability of the large-scale buildings project and increase the efficiency of the activities of all participants in such projects.

  6. Modeling Manpower and Equipment Productivity in Tall Building Construction Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudumbai Krishnaswamy, Parthasarathy; Rajiah, Murugasan; Vasan, Ramya

    2017-12-01

    Tall building construction projects involve two critical resources of manpower and equipment. Their usage, however, widely varies due to several factors affecting their productivity. Currently, no systematic study for estimating and increasing their productivity is available. What is prevalent is the use of empirical data, experience of similar projects and assumptions. As tall building projects are here to stay and increase, to meet the emerging demands in ever shrinking urban spaces, it is imperative to explore ways and means of scientific productivity models for basic construction activities: concrete, reinforcement, formwork, block work and plastering for the input of specific resources in a mixed environment of manpower and equipment usage. Data pertaining to 72 tall building projects in India were collected and analyzed. Then, suitable productivity estimation models were developed using multiple linear regression analysis and validated using independent field data. It is hoped that the models developed in the study will be useful for quantity surveyors, cost engineers and project managers to estimate productivity of resources in tall building projects.

  7. Improving Project Management Using Formal Models and Architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Theodore; Sturken, Ian

    2011-01-01

    This talk discusses the advantages formal modeling and architecture brings to project management. These emerging technologies have both great potential and challenges for improving information available for decision-making. The presentation covers standards, tools and cultural issues needing consideration, and includes lessons learned from projects the presenters have worked on.

  8. A maturation model for project-based organisations – with uncertainty management as an always remaining multi-project management focus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Jerbrant

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The classical view of multi-project management does not capture its dynamic nature. Present theory falls short in the expositive dimension of how management of project-based companies evolves because of their need to be agile and adaptable to a changing environment. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present a descriptive model that elucidates the maturation processes in a project-based organization as well as to give an enhanced understanding of multi-project management in practice. The maturation model displays how the management of project-based organizations evolves between structuring administration and managing any uncertainty, and emphasizes the importance of active individual actions and situated management actions that haveto be undertaken in order to coordinate, synchronize, and communicate the required knowledge and skills.The outcomes primarily reveal that, although standardized project models are used and considerable resources are spent on effective project portfolio management, how information and communication are executedis essential for the management of project-based organizations. This is particularly true for informal and non-codified communication.

  9. The Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Gil

    1999-01-01

    What does it take to create and implement a 7th to 8th grade middle school program where the great majority of students achieve at high academic levels regardless of their previous elementary school backgrounds? This was the major question that guided the research and development of a 7-year long project effort entitled the Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP) from September 1991 to August 1998. The CMSP effort conducted largely in two New York City public schools was aimed at creating and testing a prototype 7th and 8th grade model program that was organized and test-implemented in two distinct project phases: Phase I of the CMSP effort was conducted from 1991 to 1995 as a 7th to 8th grade extension of an existing K-6 elementary school, and Phase II was conducted from 1995 to 1998 as a 7th to 8th grade middle school program that became an integral part of a newly established 7-12th grade high school. In Phase I, the CMSP demonstrated that with a highly structured curriculum coupled with strong academic support and increased learning time, students participating in the CMSP were able to develop a strong foundation for rigorous high school coursework within the space of 2 years (at the 7th and 8th grades). Mathematics and Reading test score data during Phase I of the project, clearly indicated that significant academic gains were obtained by almost all students -- at both the high and low ends of the spectrum -- regardless of their previous academic performance in the K-6 elementary school experience. The CMSP effort expanded in Phase II to include a fully operating 7-12 high school model. Achievement gains at the 7th and 8th grade levels in Phase II were tempered by the fact that incoming 7th grade students' academic background at the CMSP High School was significantly lower than students participating in Phase 1. Student performance in Phase II was also affected by the broadening of the CMSP effort from a 7-8th grade program to a fully functioning 7-12 high

  10. Lectures on nonlinear sigma-models in projective superspace

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuzenko, Sergei M, E-mail: kuzenko@cyllene.uwa.edu.a [School of Physics M013, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley WA 6009 (Australia)

    2010-11-05

    N= 2 supersymmetry in four spacetime dimensions is intimately related to hyperkaehler and quaternionic Kaehler geometries. On one hand, the target spaces for rigid supersymmetric sigma-models are necessarily hyperkaehler manifolds. On the other hand, when coupled to N= 2 supergravity, the sigma-model target spaces must be quaternionic Kaehler. It is known that such manifolds of restricted holonomy are difficult to generate explicitly. Projective superspace is a field-theoretic approach to construct general N= 2 supersymmetric nonlinear sigma-models, and hence to generate new hyperkaehler and quaternionic Kaehler metrics. Intended for a mixed audience consisting of both physicists and mathematicians, these lectures provide a pedagogical introduction to the projective-superspace approach. (topical review)

  11. Lectures on nonlinear sigma-models in projective superspace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzenko, Sergei M

    2010-01-01

    N= 2 supersymmetry in four spacetime dimensions is intimately related to hyperkaehler and quaternionic Kaehler geometries. On one hand, the target spaces for rigid supersymmetric sigma-models are necessarily hyperkaehler manifolds. On the other hand, when coupled to N= 2 supergravity, the sigma-model target spaces must be quaternionic Kaehler. It is known that such manifolds of restricted holonomy are difficult to generate explicitly. Projective superspace is a field-theoretic approach to construct general N= 2 supersymmetric nonlinear sigma-models, and hence to generate new hyperkaehler and quaternionic Kaehler metrics. Intended for a mixed audience consisting of both physicists and mathematicians, these lectures provide a pedagogical introduction to the projective-superspace approach. (topical review)

  12. On Helical Projection and Its Application in Screw Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riliang Liu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available As helical surfaces, in their many and varied forms, are finding more and more applications in engineering, new approaches to their efficient design and manufacture are desired. To that end, the helical projection method that uses curvilinear projection lines to map a space object to a plane is examined in this paper, focusing on its mathematical model and characteristics in terms of graphical representation of helical objects. A number of interesting projective properties are identified in regard to straight lines, curves, and planes, and then the method is further investigated with respect to screws. The result shows that the helical projection of a cylindrical screw turns out to be a Jordan curve, which is determined by the screw's axial profile and number of flights. Based on the projection theory, a practical approach to the modeling of screws and helical surfaces is proposed and illustrated with examples, and its possible application in screw manufacturing is discussed.

  13. Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, J.; Frías, M. D.; Cabos, W. D.; Cofiño, A. S.; Domínguez, M.; Fita, L.; Gaertner, M. A.; García-Díez, M.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Liguori, G.; Montávez, J. P.; Romera, R.; Sánchez, E.

    2018-03-01

    We present an unprecedented ensemble of 196 future climate projections arising from different global and regional model intercomparison projects (MIPs): CMIP3, CMIP5, ENSEMBLES, ESCENA, EURO- and Med-CORDEX. This multi-MIP ensemble includes all regional climate model (RCM) projections publicly available to date, along with their driving global climate models (GCMs). We illustrate consistent and conflicting messages using continental Spain and the Balearic Islands as target region. The study considers near future (2021-2050) changes and their dependence on several uncertainty sources sampled in the multi-MIP ensemble: GCM, future scenario, internal variability, RCM, and spatial resolution. This initial work focuses on mean seasonal precipitation and temperature changes. The results show that the potential GCM-RCM combinations have been explored very unevenly, with favoured GCMs and large ensembles of a few RCMs that do not respond to any ensemble design. Therefore, the grand-ensemble is weighted towards a few models. The selection of a balanced, credible sub-ensemble is challenged in this study by illustrating several conflicting responses between the RCM and its driving GCM and among different RCMs. Sub-ensembles from different initiatives are dominated by different uncertainty sources, being the driving GCM the main contributor to uncertainty in the grand-ensemble. For this analysis of the near future changes, the emission scenario does not lead to a strong uncertainty. Despite the extra computational effort, for mean seasonal changes, the increase in resolution does not lead to important changes.

  14. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. ... (decision-making, problem-solving, listening, verbal competency, motivation, persuasion, ... Keywords: Communication skills and leadership model, construction project management, ...

  15. North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Model-Model and Model-Data Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Post, W. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Cook, R. B.

    2009-05-01

    questions: 1. Do model results and observations show consistent spatial patterns in response to the 2002 drought? From measurements and model, can we infer what processes were affected by the 2002 drought? 2. What is the spatial pattern and magnitude of interannual variation in carbon sources and sinks? What are the components of carbon fluxes and pools that contribute to this variation? 3. What are the magnitudes and spatial distribution of carbon sources and sinks, and their uncertainties during the period 2000-2005? Examining and comparing results of inverse and forward model simulations with each other and with suitable benchmark spatial measurements help evaluate model strengths/weaknesses and utility, thereby providing multiple views of spatial and temporal patterns of fluxes, leading to better understandings of processes involved, and providing an improved basis for making projections.

  16. MODELS OF PROJECT REVERSE ENGINEERING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Віктор Володимирович ІВАНОВ

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Reverse engineering decided important scientific and technical problems of increasing the cost of the existing technical product by transforming it into a product with other features or design. Search ideas of the new application of existing products on the base of heuristic analysis were created. The concept of reverse engineering and its division into three types: conceptual, aggregate and complete was expanded. The use of heuristic methods for reverse engineering concept was showed. The modification model of Reverse engineering based on the model of РМВОК was developed. Our model includes two new phases: identification and transformation. At the identification phase, technical control is made. At the transformation phase, search heuristic idea of the new applied existing technical product was made. The model of execution phase that included heuristic methods, metrological equipment, and CAD/CAM/CAE program complex was created. The model that connected economic indicators of reverse engineering project was developed.

  17. The Study on Stage Financing Model of IT Project Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Si-hua Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

  18. The Study on Stage Financing Model of IT Project Investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Sheng-hua; Xiong, Neal N.

    2014-01-01

    Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model. PMID:25147845

  19. The study on stage financing model of IT project investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Si-hua; Xu, Sheng-hua; Lee, Changhoon; Xiong, Neal N; He, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

  20. Do telemonitoring projects of heart failure fit the Chronic Care Model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willemse, Evi; Adriaenssens, Jef; Dilles, Tinne; Remmen, Roy

    2014-07-01

    This study describes the characteristics of extramural and transmural telemonitoring projects on chronic heart failure in Belgium. It describes to what extent these telemonitoring projects coincide with the Chronic Care Model of Wagner. The Chronic Care Model describes essential components for high-quality health care. Telemonitoring can be used to optimise home care for chronic heart failure. It provides a potential prospective to change the current care organisation. This qualitative study describes seven non-invasive home-care telemonitoring projects in patients with heart failure in Belgium. A qualitative design, including interviews and literature review, was used to describe the correspondence of these home-care telemonitoring projects with the dimensions of the Chronic Care Model. The projects were situated in primary and secondary health care. Their primary goal was to reduce the number of readmissions for chronic heart failure. None of these projects succeeded in a final implementation of telemonitoring in home care after the pilot phase. Not all the projects were initiated to accomplish all of the dimensions of the Chronic Care Model. A central role for the patient was sparse. Limited financial resources hampered continuation after the pilot phase. Cooperation and coordination in telemonitoring appears to be major barriers but are, within primary care as well as between the lines of care, important links in follow-up. This discrepancy can be prohibitive for deployment of good chronic care. Chronic Care Model is recommended as basis for future.

  1. Development and application of new quality model for software projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnavel, K; Dillibabu, R

    2014-01-01

    The IT industry tries to employ a number of models to identify the defects in the construction of software projects. In this paper, we present COQUALMO and its limitations and aim to increase the quality without increasing the cost and time. The computation time, cost, and effort to predict the residual defects are very high; this was overcome by developing an appropriate new quality model named the software testing defect corrective model (STDCM). The STDCM was used to estimate the number of remaining residual defects in the software product; a few assumptions and the detailed steps of the STDCM are highlighted. The application of the STDCM is explored in software projects. The implementation of the model is validated using statistical inference, which shows there is a significant improvement in the quality of the software projects.

  2. NASA's Aviation Safety and Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chidester, Thomas R.; Statler, Irving C.

    2006-01-01

    The Aviation Safety Monitoring and Modeling (ASMM) Project of NASA's Aviation Safety program is cultivating sources of data and developing automated computer hardware and software to facilitate efficient, comprehensive, and accurate analyses of the data collected from large, heterogeneous databases throughout the national aviation system. The ASMM addresses the need to provide means for increasing safety by enabling the identification and correcting of predisposing conditions that could lead to accidents or to incidents that pose aviation risks. A major component of the ASMM Project is the Aviation Performance Measuring System (APMS), which is developing the next generation of software tools for analyzing and interpreting flight data.

  3. A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Yasar Guneri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

  4. The UK Earth System Model project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yongming

    2016-04-01

    In this talk we will describe the development and current status of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM). This project is a NERC/Met Office collaboration and has two objectives; to develop and apply a world-leading Earth System Model, and to grow a community of UK Earth System Model scientists. We are building numerical models that include all the key components of the global climate system, and contain the important process interactions between global biogeochemistry, atmospheric chemistry and the physical climate system. UKESM will be used to make key CMIP6 simulations as well as long-time (e.g. millennium) simulations, large ensemble experiments and investigating a range of future carbon emission scenarios.

  5. Study on the maturity model of nuclear power project management in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Changbing; Li Huiqiang; Zheng Yanguo

    2009-01-01

    Based on the general project management maturity model, this paper discussed the establishment of nuclear power engineering project management maturity model in China, and proposed a basic framework in order to provide a way for improving and evaluating the ability of nuclear power project management in China. (authors)

  6. Power Grid Construction Project Portfolio Optimization Based on Bi-level programming model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Erdong; Li, Shangqi

    2017-08-01

    As the main body of power grid operation, county-level power supply enterprises undertake an important emission to guarantee the security of power grid operation and safeguard social power using order. The optimization of grid construction projects has been a key issue of power supply capacity and service level of grid enterprises. According to the actual situation of power grid construction project optimization of county-level power enterprises, on the basis of qualitative analysis of the projects, this paper builds a Bi-level programming model based on quantitative analysis. The upper layer of the model is the target restriction of the optimal portfolio; the lower layer of the model is enterprises’ financial restrictions on the size of the enterprise project portfolio. Finally, using a real example to illustrate operation proceeding and the optimization result of the model. Through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the bi-level programming model improves the accuracy and normative standardization of power grid enterprises projects.

  7. National Automated Highway System Consortium: Modeling Stakeholder Preferences Project

    OpenAIRE

    Lathrop, John; Chen, Kan

    1997-01-01

    This document is the final report of the Modeling Stakeholder Preferences Project. The results of the project consist of three results: 1) evaluation framework; 2) focus group non-quantitative findings/ recommendations; and, 3) performance/impact measures, their endpoints, rankings and weights, for each stakeholder group.

  8. The study of the risk management model of construction project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Bo; Feng Yanping; Liu Changbin

    2010-01-01

    The paper first analyzed the development of the risk management of construction project and the risk management processes, and then briefly introduced the risk management experience of foreign project management. From the project management by objectives point of view, the greatest risk came from the lack of clarity of the objectives in the project management, which led to the project's risk emergence. In the analysis of the principles of the project objectives identification and risk allocation, the paper set up a project management model which insurance companies involved in the whole process of the project management, and simply analyzed the roles of insurance company at last. (authors)

  9. Management of information in development projects – a proposed integrated model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Bester

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The first section of the article focuses on the need for development in Africa and the specific challenges of development operations. It describes the need for a holistic and integrated information management model as part of the project management body of knowledge aimed at managing the information flow between communities and development project teams. It is argued that information, and access to information, is crucial in development projects and can therefore be seen as a critical success factor in any development project. In the second section of the article, the three information areas of the holistic and integrated information management model are described. In the section thereafter we suggest roles and actions for information managers to facilitate information processes integral to the model. These processes seek to create a developing information community that aligns itself with the development project, and supports and sustains it.

  10. Space-time least-squares Petrov-Galerkin projection in nonlinear model reduction.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Youngsoo [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Extreme-scale Data Science and Analytics Dept.; Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Carlberg, Kevin Thomas [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Extreme-scale Data Science and Analytics Dept.

    2017-09-01

    Our work proposes a space-time least-squares Petrov-Galerkin (ST-LSPG) projection method for model reduction of nonlinear dynamical systems. In contrast to typical nonlinear model-reduction methods that first apply Petrov-Galerkin projection in the spatial dimension and subsequently apply time integration to numerically resolve the resulting low-dimensional dynamical system, the proposed method applies projection in space and time simultaneously. To accomplish this, the method first introduces a low-dimensional space-time trial subspace, which can be obtained by computing tensor decompositions of state-snapshot data. The method then computes discrete-optimal approximations in this space-time trial subspace by minimizing the residual arising after time discretization over all space and time in a weighted ℓ2-norm. This norm can be de ned to enable complexity reduction (i.e., hyper-reduction) in time, which leads to space-time collocation and space-time GNAT variants of the ST-LSPG method. Advantages of the approach relative to typical spatial-projection-based nonlinear model reduction methods such as Galerkin projection and least-squares Petrov-Galerkin projection include: (1) a reduction of both the spatial and temporal dimensions of the dynamical system, (2) the removal of spurious temporal modes (e.g., unstable growth) from the state space, and (3) error bounds that exhibit slower growth in time. Numerical examples performed on model problems in fluid dynamics demonstrate the ability of the method to generate orders-of-magnitude computational savings relative to spatial-projection-based reduced-order models without sacrificing accuracy.

  11. Pengembangan Model Outdoor Learning melalui Project Berbasis Local Wisdom dalam Pembelajaran Fisika

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indah kurnia Putri Damayanti

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: (1 menghasilkan model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom yang layak digunakan dalam pembelajaran fisika, (2 mengetahui keefektifan penggunaan model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom. Penelitian pengembangan ini menggunakan metode pengembangan R & D (Research dan Development. Pada tahap Development, peneliti mengadopsi model 4D, yaitu Define, Design, Develop, dan Disseminate. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom yang dikembangkan layak digunakan dari segi produk pendukung pembelajaran yang memenuhi kriteria sangat tinggi menurut para ahli, praktis menurut guru dan peserta didik. Lembar observasi yang memenuhi kriteria valid dan reliabel berdasarkan hasil ICC dan tes hasil belajar yang memenuhi kriteria valid dan reliabel berdasarkan hasil Quest. Selain itu, model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom lebih efektif digunakan dalam pembelajaran fisika dilihat dari hasil analisis multivariate dan GLMMDs yang memperoleh nilai signifikansi 0,000 dan MD yang tinggi.   AbstractThis research was aimed to: (1 produce outdoor learning via project based suitable local wisdom model used in physics learning, (2 know the effectiveness in using outdoor learning via project based local wisdom model. This developing research used a R & D method (Research and Development. On Development step, the researcher adopted 4D model, they were Define, Design, Develop, dan Dissemination. The results showed that the developed outdoor learning via project based local wisdom model was suitable to be used in terms of learning support product that was in very high category according expert, practical according teacher and students. In addition the observation sheet was in valid criteria and reliabel based on ICC and the learning outcome test was in valid criteria and reliabel based on Quest. Besides, outdoor learning via

  12. Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

  13. A New Bi-Directional Projection Model Based on Pythagorean Uncertain Linguistic Variable

    OpenAIRE

    Huidong Wang; Shifan He; Xiaohong Pan

    2018-01-01

    To solve the multi-attribute decision making (MADM) problems with Pythagorean uncertain linguistic variable, an extended bi-directional projection method is proposed. First, we utilize the linguistic scale function to convert uncertain linguistic variable and provide a new projection model, subsequently. Then, to depict the bi-directional projection method, the formative vectors of alternatives and ideal alternatives are defined. Furthermore, a comparative analysis with projection model is co...

  14. Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Steinacher

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP and export of particulate organic carbon (EP are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

  15. Benchmarking of wind farm scale wake models in the EERA - DTOC project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Barthelmie, R.J.

    2013-01-01

    -flow to combine wind farm (micro) and cluster (meso) scale wake models. For this purpose, a benchmark campaign is organized on the existing wind farm wake models available within the project, in order to identify which model would be the most appropriate for this coupling. A number of standardized wake cases......Designing offshore wind farms next to existing or planned wind farm clusters has recently become a common practice in the North Sea. These types of projects face unprecedented challenges in term of wind energy siting. The currently ongoing European project FP7 EERA - DTOC (Design Tool for Offshore...... wind farm Clusters) is aiming at providing a new type of model work-flow to address this issue. The wake modeling part of the EERA - DTOC project is to improve the fundamental understanding of wind turbine wakes and modeling. One of these challenges is to create a new kind of wake modeling work...

  16. A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

  17. Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Heather E; Knightes, Christopher D; Conrads, Paul A; Feaster, Toby D; Davis, Gary M; Benedict, Stephen T; Bradley, Paul M

    2013-09-01

    Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

  18. Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Heather E.; Knightes, Christopher D.; Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Davis, Gary M.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Bradley, Paul M.

    2013-01-01

    Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

  19. HB-Line Special Nuclear Material Campaigns: Model-Based Project Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CHANG, ROBERT

    2004-01-01

    This study is to show how a model was used to enable management to better estimate production capabilities to ensure contract milestones/commitments are met, to cope with fast changing project baselines and project missions, to ensure the project will meet the negotiated throughput, and to eliminate unnecessary but costly design changes

  20. Building information models for astronomy projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariño, Javier; Murga, Gaizka; Campo, Ramón; Eletxigerra, Iñigo; Ampuero, Pedro

    2012-09-01

    A Building Information Model is a digital representation of physical and functional characteristics of a building. BIMs represent the geometrical characteristics of the Building, but also properties like bills of quantities, definition of COTS components, status of material in the different stages of the project, project economic data, etc. The BIM methodology, which is well established in the Architecture Engineering and Construction (AEC) domain for conventional buildings, has been brought one step forward in its application for Astronomical/Scientific facilities. In these facilities steel/concrete structures have high dynamic and seismic requirements, M&E installations are complex and there is a large amount of special equipment and mechanisms involved as a fundamental part of the facility. The detail design definition is typically implemented by different design teams in specialized design software packages. In order to allow the coordinated work of different engineering teams, the overall model, and its associated engineering database, is progressively integrated using a coordination and roaming software which can be used before starting construction phase for checking interferences, planning the construction sequence, studying maintenance operation, reporting to the project office, etc. This integrated design & construction approach will allow to efficiently plan construction sequence (4D). This is a powerful tool to study and analyze in detail alternative construction sequences and ideally coordinate the work of different construction teams. In addition engineering, construction and operational database can be linked to the virtual model (6D), what gives to the end users a invaluable tool for the lifecycle management, as all the facility information can be easily accessed, added or replaced. This paper presents the BIM methodology as implemented by IDOM with the E-ELT and ATST Enclosures as application examples.

  1. Projective limits of state spaces III. Toy-models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanéry, Suzanne; Thiemann, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    In this series of papers, we investigate the projective framework initiated by Kijowski (1977) and Okołów (2009, 2014, 2013) [1,2], which describes the states of a quantum theory as projective families of density matrices. A short reading guide to the series can be found in Lanéry (2016). A strategy to implement the dynamics in this formalism was presented in our first paper Lanéry and Thiemann (2017) (see also Lanéry, 2016, section 4), which we now test in two simple toy-models. The first one is a very basic linear model, meant as an illustration of the general procedure, and we will only discuss it at the classical level. In the second one, we reformulate the Schrödinger equation, treated as a classical field theory, within this projective framework, and proceed to its (non-relativistic) second quantization. We are then able to reproduce the physical content of the usual Fock quantization.

  2. Theory, modeling, and integrated studies in the Arase (ERG) project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seki, Kanako; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi; Ebihara, Yusuke; Katoh, Yuto; Amano, Takanobu; Saito, Shinji; Shoji, Masafumi; Nakamizo, Aoi; Keika, Kunihiro; Hori, Tomoaki; Nakano, Shin'ya; Watanabe, Shigeto; Kamiya, Kei; Takahashi, Naoko; Omura, Yoshiharu; Nose, Masahito; Fok, Mei-Ching; Tanaka, Takashi; Ieda, Akimasa; Yoshikawa, Akimasa

    2018-02-01

    Understanding of underlying mechanisms of drastic variations of the near-Earth space (geospace) is one of the current focuses of the magnetospheric physics. The science target of the geospace research project Exploration of energization and Radiation in Geospace (ERG) is to understand the geospace variations with a focus on the relativistic electron acceleration and loss processes. In order to achieve the goal, the ERG project consists of the three parts: the Arase (ERG) satellite, ground-based observations, and theory/modeling/integrated studies. The role of theory/modeling/integrated studies part is to promote relevant theoretical and simulation studies as well as integrated data analysis to combine different kinds of observations and modeling. Here we provide technical reports on simulation and empirical models related to the ERG project together with their roles in the integrated studies of dynamic geospace variations. The simulation and empirical models covered include the radial diffusion model of the radiation belt electrons, GEMSIS-RB and RBW models, CIMI model with global MHD simulation REPPU, GEMSIS-RC model, plasmasphere thermosphere model, self-consistent wave-particle interaction simulations (electron hybrid code and ion hybrid code), the ionospheric electric potential (GEMSIS-POT) model, and SuperDARN electric field models with data assimilation. ERG (Arase) science center tools to support integrated studies with various kinds of data are also briefly introduced.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  3. Implementation of the model project: Ghanaian experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schandorf, C.; Darko, E.O.; Yeboah, J.; Asiamah, S.D.

    2003-01-01

    Upgrading of the legal infrastructure has been the most time consuming and frustrating part of the implementation of the Model project due to the unstable system of governance and rule of law coupled with the low priority given to legislation on technical areas such as safe applications of Nuclear Science and Technology in medicine, industry, research and teaching. Dwindling Governmental financial support militated against physical and human resource infrastructure development and operational effectiveness. The trend over the last five years has been to strengthen the revenue generation base of the Radiation Protection Institute through good management practices to ensure a cost effective use of the limited available resources for a self-reliant and sustainable radiation and waste safety programme. The Ghanaian experience regarding the positive and negative aspects of the implementation of the Model Project is highlighted. (author)

  4. Adoption of Building Information Modelling in project planning risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mering, M. M.; Aminudin, E.; Chai, C. S.; Zakaria, R.; Tan, C. S.; Lee, Y. Y.; Redzuan, A. A.

    2017-11-01

    An efficient and effective risk management required a systematic and proper methodology besides knowledge and experience. However, if the risk management is not discussed from the starting of the project, this duty is notably complicated and no longer efficient. This paper presents the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in project planning risk management. The objectives is to identify the traditional risk management practices and its function, besides, determine the best function of BIM in risk management and investigating the efficiency of adopting BIM-based risk management during the project planning phase. In order to obtain data, a quantitative approach is adopted in this research. Based on data analysis, the lack of compliance with project requirements and failure to recognise risk and develop responses to opportunity are the risks occurred when traditional risk management is implemented. When using BIM in project planning, it works as the tracking of cost control and cash flow give impact on the project cycle to be completed on time. 5D cost estimation or cash flow modeling benefit risk management in planning, controlling and managing budget and cost reasonably. There were two factors that mostly benefit a BIM-based technology which were formwork plan with integrated fall plan and design for safety model check. By adopting risk management, potential risks linked with a project and acknowledging to those risks can be identified to reduce them to an acceptable extent. This means recognizing potential risks and avoiding threat by reducing their negative effects. The BIM-based risk management can enhance the planning process of construction projects. It benefits the construction players in various aspects. It is important to know the application of BIM-based risk management as it can be a lesson learnt to others to implement BIM and increase the quality of the project.

  5. A Systematic Approach to Modelling Change Processes in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Motawa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Modelling change processes within construction projects isessential to implement changes efficiently. Incomplete informationon the project variables at the early stages of projects leads toinadequate knowledge of future states and imprecision arisingfrom ambiguity in project parameters. This lack of knowledge isconsidered among the main source of changes in construction.Change identification and evaluation, in addition to predictingits impacts on project parameters, can help in minimising thedisruptive effects of changes. This paper presents a systematicapproach to modelling change process within construction projectsthat helps improve change identification and evaluation. Theapproach represents the key decisions required to implementchanges. The requirements of an effective change processare presented first. The variables defined for efficient changeassessment and diagnosis are then presented. Assessmentof construction changes requires an analysis for the projectcharacteristics that lead to change and also analysis of therelationship between the change causes and effects. The paperconcludes that, at the early stages of a project, projects with a highlikelihood of change occurrence should have a control mechanismover the project characteristics that have high influence on theproject. It also concludes, for the relationship between changecauses and effects, the multiple causes of change should bemodelled in a way to enable evaluating the change effects moreaccurately. The proposed approach is the framework for tacklingsuch conclusions and can be used for evaluating change casesdepending on the available information at the early stages ofconstruction projects.

  6. The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM): a projection model for timber supply and policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.L. Tedder; R.N. La Mont; J.C. Kincaid

    1987-01-01

    TRIM (Timber Resource Inventory Model) is a yield table projection system developed for timber supply projections and policy analysis. TRIM simulates timber growth, inventories, management and area changes, and removals over the projection period. Programs in the TRIM system, card-by-card descriptions of required inputs, table formats, and sample results are presented...

  7. THE MODELLING OF ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES OF MANAGEMENT BY REALIZING INVESTMENT CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олег Александрович КУЧМА

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors consider the modeling of organizational structures by virtue of interaction between the basic participants by realizing of investment construction projects. This process is directed at the complex analysis of a problem of quality management by creating of building goods taking into account modern project management tendencies. The topicality of problem is obvious as by realizing of investment construction projects there is a liberal share of uncompleted projects, and in the completed projects actual values considerably exceed budgeted capital expenditures. The introduced model allows managing the project per quality system in all phases of the investment construction project‘s life cycle. It promotes refinement of building goods, improves the rate of successfully completed projects with actual values near budgeted.

  8. Project Finance Model for Small Contractors in USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jawahar Nesan

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Construction projects do not require a large capital outlay but a large working capital to start up the project. Unfortunately, for small contractors there are very limited options available from the banks or other lending institutions to cover this large working capital requirement in the absence of sufficient collateral. The “Project Finance” method presented in this paper is recommended as the most effective method for small contractors in the United States. The problems of small and start up contractors in funding their projects have been little addressed in the literature. The current financing practices were observed through both the literature review and interviews with contractors and bankers in the western Michigan area and subsequently a system has been proposed which could help a small start-up company seeking higher growth. The growth rates that can be achieved using the project finance system in contrast to the traditional “line of credit” arrangements as illustrated in this paper show that the project finance model is beneficial.

  9. Incentive Model Based on Cooperative Relationship in Sustainable Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangdong Wu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Considering the cooperative relationship between owners and contractors in sustainable construction projects, as well as the synergistic effects created by cooperative behaviors, a cooperative incentive model was developed using game theory. The model was formulated and analyzed under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations. Then, a numerical simulation and example were proposed to verify the conclusions derived from the model. The results showed that the synergistic effect increases the input intensity of one party’s resource transfer into the increase of marginal utility of the other party, thus the owner and contractor are willing to enhance their levels of effort. One party’s optimal benefit allocation coefficient is positively affected by its own output efficiency, and negatively affected by the other party’s output efficiency. The effort level and expected benefits of the owner and contractor can be improved by enhancing the cooperative relationship between the two parties, as well as enhancing the net benefits of a sustainable construction project. The synergistic effect cannot lower the negative effect of moral hazard behaviors during the implementation of sustainable construction projects. Conversely, the higher levels of the cooperative relationship, the wider the gaps amongst the optimal values under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations for the levels of effort, expected benefits and net project benefits. Since few studies to date have emphasized the effects of cooperative relationship on sustainable construction projects, this study constructed a game-based incentive model to bridge the gaps. This study contributes significant theoretical and practical insights into the management of cooperation amongst stakeholders, and into the enhancement of the overall benefits of sustainable construction projects.

  10. A New Bi-Directional Projection Model Based on Pythagorean Uncertain Linguistic Variable

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huidong Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available To solve the multi-attribute decision making (MADM problems with Pythagorean uncertain linguistic variable, an extended bi-directional projection method is proposed. First, we utilize the linguistic scale function to convert uncertain linguistic variable and provide a new projection model, subsequently. Then, to depict the bi-directional projection method, the formative vectors of alternatives and ideal alternatives are defined. Furthermore, a comparative analysis with projection model is conducted to show the superiority of bi-directional projection method. Finally, an example of graduate’s job option is given to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

  11. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  12. On reducibility and ergodicity of population projection matrix models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    from all stages to all other stages) and therefore ergodic (whatever initial stage structure is used in the population projection, it will always exhibit the same stable asymptotic growth rate). 2. Evaluation of 652 PPM models for 171 species from the literature suggests that 24·7% of PPM models...... structure used in the population projection). In our sample of published PPMs, 15·6% are non-ergodic. 3. This presents a problem: reducible–ergodic models often defy biological rationale in their description of the life cycle but may or may not prove problematic for analysis as they often behave similarly...... of reducibility in published PPMs, with significant implications for the predictive power of such models in many cases. We suggest that as a general rule, reducibility of PPM models should be avoided. However, we provide a guide to the pertinent analysis of reducible matrix models, largely based upon whether...

  13. SELECTION OF EFFECTIVE MODELS OF PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION IN A CHANGING FINANCIAL SITUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Иванович МЕНЕЙЛЮК

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article describes the methods of selecting effective models of construction projects of residential buildings and recommendations for its use. The technique is based on the construction of the models in the program Microsoft Project and analysis using the program COMPEX. Methods can be used not only for building projects. It is especially effective in a variable financial situation.

  14. Evaluation model of project complexity for large-scale construction projects in Iran - A Fuzzy ANP approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliyeh Kazemi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Construction projects have always been complex. By growing trend of this complexity, implementations of large-scale constructions become harder. Hence, evaluating and understanding these complexities are critical. Correct evaluation of a project complication can provide executives and managers with good source to use. Fuzzy analytic network process (ANP is a logical and systematic approach toward defining, evaluation, and grading. This method allows for analyzing complex systems, and determining complexity of them. In this study, by taking advantage of fuzzy ANP, effective indexes for development of complications in large-scale construction projects in Iran have been determined and prioritized. The results show socio-political, project system interdependencies, and technological complexity indexes ranked top to three. Furthermore, in comparison of three main huge projects: commercial-administrative, hospital, and skyscrapers, the hospital project had been evaluated as the most complicated. This model is beneficial for professionals in managing large-scale projects.

  15. INFORMATION MODELING OF LIFE CYCLE OF HIGH-RISE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gusakova Elena Aleksandrovna

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available To date, many years’ experience in the construction and operation of high-rise buildings has been accumulated. Its analysis reveals not only the engineering and organizational-technological specifics of such projects, but also systemic gaps in the field of management. In the implementation of large-scale and unique projects for high-rise buildings, the problems and tasks of improving approaches to managing the full life cycle of projects and methods, which will improve their competitiveness, become topical. The systems being used have largely exhausted their resource efficiency, which is associated with automation of traditional “inherited” processes and management structures, as well as development of IT-systems focused on digitalization of the activities of construction company, rather than the project. To solve these problems, it is proposed to carry out: reengineering of the schemes of information interaction between the project’s participants; formation of integrated digital environment for the life cycle of the project; development of systems for integrating data management and project management. Subject: problems, approaches and methods of digitalization of project’s life cycle management in relation to the specifics and features of high-rise buildings. Research objectives: substantiation of the most perspective approaches and methods of information modeling of high-rise construction as the basis for managing the full life cycle of the given project. Materials and methods: the experience of digitalization of design, construction, operation and development of high-rise buildings, presented in specialized literature, is analyzed. The methods for integrating information models of various stages of project’s life cycle and for information interaction of project’s participants are considered. Results: the concept of forming a single digital environment for the project is proposed, taking into account the features of the life

  16. An incremental procedure model for e-learning projects at universities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pahlke, Friedrich

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available E-learning projects at universities are produced under different conditions than in industry. The main characteristic of many university projects is that these are realized quasi in a solo effort. In contrast, in private industry the different, interdisciplinary skills that are necessary for the development of e-learning are typically supplied by a multimedia agency.A specific procedure tailored for the use at universities is therefore required to facilitate mastering the amount and complexity of the tasks.In this paper an incremental procedure model is presented, which describes the proceeding in every phase of the project. It allows a high degree of flexibility and emphasizes the didactical concept – instead of the technical implementation. In the second part, we illustrate the practical use of the theoretical procedure model based on the project “Online training in Genetic Epidemiology”.

  17. A model validation framework for climate change projection and impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Refsgaard, Jens C.; Andréassian, Vazken

    2014-01-01

    methods for projection of climate change (single and ensemble model projections and space‐timesubstitution) and use of different data sources as proxy for future climate conditions (long historical records comprising non‐ stationarity, paleo data, and controlled experiments). The basic guiding principles...... proxy data, reflecting future conditions. This test can be used with both single and ensemble model projections as well as with space‐time‐substitutions. It is generally expected to be more powerful when applied to a model ensemble than to a single model. Since space‐timesubstitutions include...... a differential split‐sample test using best available proxy data that reflect the expected future conditions at the site being considered. Such proxy data may be obtained from long historical records comprising nonstationarity, paleo data, or controlled experiments. The test can be applied with different...

  18. Predicting Defects Using Information Intelligence Process Models in the Software Technology Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvaraj, Manjula Gandhi; Jayabal, Devi Shree; Srinivasan, Thenmozhi; Balasubramanie, Palanisamy

    2015-01-01

    A key differentiator in a competitive market place is customer satisfaction. As per Gartner 2012 report, only 75%-80% of IT projects are successful. Customer satisfaction should be considered as a part of business strategy. The associated project parameters should be proactively managed and the project outcome needs to be predicted by a technical manager. There is lot of focus on the end state and on minimizing defect leakage as much as possible. Focus should be on proactively managing and shifting left in the software life cycle engineering model. Identify the problem upfront in the project cycle and do not wait for lessons to be learnt and take reactive steps. This paper gives the practical applicability of using predictive models and illustrates use of these models in a project to predict system testing defects thus helping to reduce residual defects.

  19. Structural Equation Model for Evaluating Factors Affecting Quality of Social Infrastructure Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahid Hussain

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The quality of the constructed social infrastructure project has been considered a necessary measure for the sustainability of projects. Studies on factors affecting project quality have used various techniques and methods to explain the relationships between particular variables. Unexpectedly, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM has acquired very little concern in factors affecting project quality studies. To address this limitation in the body of knowledge, the objective of this study was to apply the SEM approach and build a model that explained and identified the critical factors affecting quality in social infrastructure projects. The authors developed a quantitative approach using smart-PLS version 3.2.7. This study shed light on the views of different experts based on their experience in public construction projects in Pakistan. Particularly, the authors aimed to find out the relationships between construction, stakeholders, materials, design, and external factors, and how these relate to project quality. The findings of this study revealed that the R2 value of the model was scored at 0.749, which meant that the five exogenous latent constructs collectively explained 74.9% of the variance in project quality. The Goodness-of-Fit of the model was 0.458. The construction related factor was the most important out of the five constructs. This study determined that better planning and monitoring and evaluation should be developed to better address and control the quality defects by decision-makers, project managers as well as contractors. These findings might support practitioners and decision makers to focus on quality related problems that might occur in their current or future projects.

  20. European project for a multinational macrosectoral model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    d' Alcantara, G; Italianer, A

    1984-01-01

    This paper describes the HERMES project, a multinational macrosectoral European econometric modelling effort, sponsored by the Directorates General II (Economic and Financial Affairs), XII (Science, Research and Development), XVII (Energy) and the SOEC. The set-up of the model is sketched against the background of problems of growth, unemployment, inflation, trade balances, government balances and energy policy. Although the definitions of the variables and a complete specification of the model are given in the Appendix, the major features of the model are described extensively in the text. These include private and collective consumption (incl. a consumer demand system), the putty-clay production process, price and wage formation, sectoral bilateral trade flows and integrated energy economy modelling.

  1. Projection model for flame chemiluminescence tomography based on lens imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Minggang; Zhuang, Jihui

    2018-04-01

    For flame chemiluminescence tomography (FCT) based on lens imaging, the projection model is essential because it formulates the mathematical relation between the flame projections captured by cameras and the chemiluminescence field, and, through this relation, the field is reconstructed. This work proposed the blurry-spot (BS) model, which takes more universal assumptions and has higher accuracy than the widely applied line-of-sight model. By combining the geometrical camera model and the thin-lens equation, the BS model takes into account perspective effect of the camera lens; by combining ray-tracing technique and Monte Carlo simulation, it also considers inhomogeneous distribution of captured radiance on the image plane. Performance of these two models in FCT was numerically compared, and results showed that using the BS model could lead to better reconstruction quality in wider application ranges.

  2. Construction project investment control model based on instant information

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xue-tong

    2006-01-01

    Change of construction conditions always influences project investment by causing the loss of construction work time and extending the duration. To resolve such problem as difficult dynamic control in work construction plan, this article presents a concept of instant optimization by ways of adjustment operation time of each working procedure to minimize investment change. Based on this concept, its mathematical model is established and a strict mathematical justification is performed. An instant optimization model takes advantage of instant information in the construction process to duly complete adjustment of construction; thus we maximize cost efficiency of project investment.

  3. Developing integrated parametric planning models for budgeting and managing complex projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etnyre, Vance A.; Black, Ken U.

    1988-01-01

    The applicability of integrated parametric models for the budgeting and management of complex projects is investigated. Methods for building a very flexible, interactive prototype for a project planning system, and software resources available for this purpose, are discussed and evaluated. The prototype is required to be sensitive to changing objectives, changing target dates, changing costs relationships, and changing budget constraints. To achieve the integration of costs and project and task durations, parametric cost functions are defined by a process of trapezoidal segmentation, where the total cost for the project is the sum of the various project cost segments, and each project cost segment is the integral of a linearly segmented cost loading function over a specific interval. The cost can thus be expressed algebraically. The prototype was designed using Lotus-123 as the primary software tool. This prototype implements a methodology for interactive project scheduling that provides a model of a system that meets most of the goals for the first phase of the study and some of the goals for the second phase.

  4. METHODS OF SELECTING THE EFFECTIVE MODELS OF BUILDINGS REPROFILING PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Иванович МЕНЕЙЛЮК

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article highlights the important task of project management in reprofiling of buildings. It is expedient to pay attention to selecting effective engineering solutions to reduce the duration and cost reduction at the project management in the construction industry. This article presents a methodology for the selection of efficient organizational and technical solutions for the reconstruction of buildings reprofiling. The method is based on a compilation of project variants in the program Microsoft Project and experimental statistical analysis using the program COMPEX. The introduction of this technique in the realigning of buildings allows choosing efficient models of projects, depending on the given constraints. Also, this technique can be used for various construction projects.

  5. Numerical modeling in photonic crystals integrated technology: the COPERNICUS Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaguti, Stefania; Armaroli, Andrea; Bellanca, Gaetano

    2011-01-01

    Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project.......Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project....

  6. Project-matrix models of marketing organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gutić Dragutin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introduction of new products, modification of products, promotion, distribution etc. They rarely found it necessary to focus a bit more to different aspects of marketing management, for example: marketing planning and marketing control, marketing organization and leading. This paper deals with aspects of project - matrix marketing organization management. Two-dimensional and more-dimensional models are presented. Among two-dimensional, these models are analyzed: Market management/products management model; Products management/management of product lifecycle phases on market model; Customers management/marketing functions management model; Demand management/marketing functions management model; Market positions management/marketing functions management model. .

  7. PENGEMBANGAN TUGAS AKHIR MELALUI PROJECT BASED LEARNING MODEL UNTUK MENINGKATKAN GENERIC GREEN SKILLS SISWA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Ana

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The development of students’ final project through Project-based Learning (PBLapproach was conducted in the workshop of family resource management (FRM in 7th semester.PBL approach is expected to give contribution to students’ motivation and experience to finish their final assignments of FRM workshop. The objectives of the research are to: (1 develop PBL model for the students’final project; (2 produce learning instruments of PBL such as lesson plans, manual of FRM workshop, and scientific report of FRM workshop. The method of the study was using research and development of Plomp model and quasi experiment for testing the effectiveness of the model. The research subjects were the students from the class of 2009 and 2010 who joined FRM workshop course. The study produced model, lesson plans, and manual of FRM workshop as the outputs. The result showed that project based learning model was effective to improve the students’ generic green skills for project management, collaborative skills, and communicative competence. Keywords: final project, generic green skill, family resource management, Project-Based Learning

  8. Climatic Models Ensemble-based Mid-21st Century Runoff Projections: A Bayesian Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achieng, K. O.; Zhu, J.

    2017-12-01

    There are a number of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climatic models that have been used to project surface runoff in the mid-21st century. Statistical model selection techniques are often used to select the model that best fits data. However, model selection techniques often lead to different conclusions. In this study, ten models are averaged in Bayesian paradigm to project runoff. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is used to project and identify effect of model uncertainty on future runoff projections. Baseflow separation - a two-digital filter which is also called Eckhardt filter - is used to separate USGS streamflow (total runoff) into two components: baseflow and surface runoff. We use this surface runoff as the a priori runoff when conducting BMA of runoff simulated from the ten RCM models. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate how well RCM multi-model ensembles simulate surface runoff, in a Bayesian framework. Specifically, we investigate and discuss the following questions: How well do ten RCM models ensemble jointly simulate surface runoff by averaging over all the models using BMA, given a priori surface runoff? What are the effects of model uncertainty on surface runoff simulation?

  9. Application of an integrated model for evaluation and optimization of business projects portfolios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila Costa Dutra

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an application of an integrated model for the evaluation and probabilistic optimization of projects portfolios, integrating economic, risk and social and environmental impacts analysis. The model uses the Monte Carlo simulation and linear programming techniques for treatment of uncertainties and optimization of projects portfolio. The integrated model was applied in a Brazilian company of electricity distributions. The portfolio of selected projects was related to the expansion of the supply of electricity in a town in the south of the country and the analysis horizon was set in ten years. The aim of the application was to maximize the return for the implementation of a substation and a transmission line in a set of projects, which are diverse in terms of costs, benefits and environmental and social impacts. As a result, the model generates: i an analysis of each individual projects, from budget information (costs and benefits involved and estimation of social and environmental impacts generated by the project and the risks (uncertainties involved and ii the optimum combination of projects that the company should prioritize to ensure the best financial return and lower social and environmental impacts, thus generating an optimal portfolio.

  10. APPLICATION OF AN INTEGRATED MODEL FOR EVALUATION AND OPTIMIZATION OF BUSINESS PROJECTS PORTFOLIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Auxiliadora Cannarozzo Tinoco

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an application of an integrated model for the evaluation and probabilistic optimization of projects portfolios, integrating economic, risk and social and environmental impacts analysis. The model uses the Monte Carlo simulation and linear programming techniques for treatment of uncertainties and optimization of projects portfolio. The integrated model was applied in a Brazilian company of electricity distributions. The portfolio of selected projects was related to the expansion of the supply of electricity in a town in the south of the country and the analysis horizon was set in ten years. The aim of the application was to maximize the return for the implementation of a substation and a transmission line in a set of projects, which are diverse in terms of costs, benefits and environmental and social impacts. As a result, the model generates: i an analysis of each individual projects, from budget information (costs and benefits involved and estimation of social and environmental impacts generated by the project and the risks (uncertainties involved and ii the optimum combination of projects that the company should prioritize to ensure the best financial return and lower social and environmental impacts, thus generating an optimal portfolio

  11. Goleman-Boyatzis Model of Emotional Intelligence for Dealing with Problems in Project Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Vincent Livesey

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available As projects grow in size and complexity the sizes of teams needed to manage them also increases. This places greater emphasis on the need for the project manager to develop people management skills, commonly called soft skills, of which emotional intelligence (EI has been recognised as an important component. The objective of this research was to investigate the relevance of the Goleman-Boyatzis model of EI in dealing with the problems in large projects identified via a literature review. To achieve this end, a Delphi study using project managers who had been involved in the management of projects in excess of $500 million was used. The responses from the Delphi panel were analysed and the results showed that the competencies contained in the Goleman-Boyatzis model had a relevance of 95% or greater to the problems presented to the panel. A ranking of the various competencies contained within the model was also developed, some competencies being found to be more important than others. By confirming the importance of emotional intelligence, as described by the model, this research adds to the understanding of the necessary skills needed by a project manager to successfully manage large projects.

  12. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL INITIATION OF PROJECT IN A FORM OF MARKOV CHAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Катерина Вікторівна КОЛЕСНІКОВА

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The model of the initiation of projects which reproduces a fragment of the general scheme of interaction between the main entities in the project initiation phase is created. Determined that the project initiation through communication links between the four main entities: projects team, environment, the project itself and the customer. The result of the initiation of projects in the emerging communications referred to objects in the design phase through consistency requirements of stakeholders and the adoption of the basic concepts of projects, goal-projects, project planning, evaluation requirements of specialization and competence required for the formation of the project team. This Markov chain is part of the control circuit that includes elements such as the temporary organizational structure of the project design, project team, customer, and environment project. It is shown that the Markov model of interaction between project participants in their initiation phase, taking into account the role of a key player in the project ‑ the customer can determine changes of state and generate recommendations for initiating projects. Results of the study can serve as a basis for creating models of control objects that contain its organizational structure and reflect the parametric properties of the system to obtain information needed for decision making to initiate projects

  13. SESAME as a Model Project for Other Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winick, Herman

    2013-03-01

    UNESCO became the umbrella organization for SESAME at its Executive Board 164th session, May 2002. The following comments about SESAME were made by this board: ``a quintessential UNESCO project combining capacity building with vital peace-building through science'' and ``a model project for other regions.'' Now that SESAME is well underway, other regions (e.g.; Africa and Central Asia) should be made aware of this progress, and they should be welcomed to join SESAME as a first step in developing similar projects in their region. Students and scientists from other regions should be encouraged to attend SESAME Users' meeting, schools, workshops, etc. where they can learn about synchrotron radiation sources, beamlines, and science. They should be invited to join SESAME scientists in designing and commissioning accelerators and beamlines, gaining relevant experience for their own projects and helping SESAME in the process. Work supported by DOE Office of Basic Energy Sciences

  14. Liquidus Projection and Thermodynamic Modeling of a Sn-Ag-Zn System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Sinn-wen; Chiu, Wan-ting; Gierlotka, Wojciech; Chang, Jui-shen; Wang, Chao-hong

    2017-12-01

    Sn-Ag-Zn alloys are promising Pb-free solders. In this study, the Sn-Ag-Zn liquidus projection was determined, and the Sn-Ag-Zn thermodynamic modeling was developed. Various Sn-Ag-Zn alloys were prepared. Their as-cast microstructures and primary solidification phases were examined. The invariant reaction temperatures of the ternary Sn-Ag-Zn system were determined. The liquidus projection of the Sn-Ag-Zn ternary system was constructed. It was found that the Sn-Ag-Zn ternary system has eight primary solidification phases: ɛ2-AgZn3, γ-Ag5Zn8, β-AgZn, ζ-Ag4Sn, (Ag), ɛ1-Ag3Sn, β-(Sn) and (Zn) phases. There are eight ternary invariant reactions, and the liquid + (Ag) = β-AgZn + ζ-Ag4Sn reaction is of the highest temperature at 935.5 K. Thermodynamic modeling of the ternary Sn-Ag-Zn system was also carried out in this study based on the thermodynamic models of the three constituent binary systems and the experimentally determined liquidus projection. The liquidus projection and the isothermal sections are calculated. The calculated and experimentally determined liquidus projections are in good agreement.

  15. Respiratory compensation in projection imaging using a magnification and displacement model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crawford, C.R.; King, K.F.; Ritchie, C.J.; Godwin, J.D.

    1996-01-01

    Respiratory motion during the collection of computed tomography (CT) projections generates structured artifacts and a loss of resolution that can render the scans unusable. This motion is problematic in scans of those patients who cannot suspend respiration, such as the very young or incubated patients. In this paper, the authors present an algorithm that can be used to reduce motion artifacts in CT scans caused by respiration. An approximate model for the effect of respiration is that the object cross section under interrogation experiences time-varying magnification and displacement along two axes. Using this model an exact filtered backprojection algorithm is derived for the case of parallel projections. The result is extended to generate an approximate reconstruction formula for fan-beam projections. Computer simulations and scans of phantoms on a commercial CT scanner validate the new reconstruction algorithms for parallel and fan-beam projections. Significant reduction in respiratory artifacts is demonstrated clinically when the motion model is satisfied. The method can be applied to projection data used in CT single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), positron emission tomography (PET), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)

  16. MODEL RANCANGAN SISTEM INFORMASI PROJECT MONITORING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanti Yanti

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Economic development makes the property industry growing very rapidly. The property development is supported by the development of contractor’s company that conducts property development. Inside the contracting company doing business can not perform their own procurement because of the many items that must be provided. For the purposes of the construction company entered into an agreement with the subcontractor as vendor conduct procurement in accordance with the needs of contracting companies. To simplify the procurement process, generally conducted by a process called a tender / auction. This is done by contracting companies to get quality and price in accordance with the desired budget. The company’s commitment subcontractors as the procurement of goods to be one key to successful contracting company doing business development process. Therefore, the subcontractor companies are required to have a good commitment. Therefore we need a project monitoring system that can monitor business processes running on those sub contractor company. The purpose of this research is to design a project monitoring information system in accordance with company requirements to operational activities more effective and efficient company.Keywords: project monitoring, design model, subcontractor

  17. Decision Model on Financing a Project Using Knowledge about Risk Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Ioana POPOVICI; Emil SCARLAT; Francesco RIZZO

    2011-01-01

    The research presents an alternative to the classical method of measuring financial risk in funding a project. The goal of the model described in the paper implies identifying "risky areas" within the financial balance of the project. The model analysis the financial risk behavior studied along four scenarios by varying only the cost of financing source used according to the specific type of funding. The model introduces the time factor into the analysis of financial risk due to the specific ...

  18. Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Physics Models For Diagnostics Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotti, Jose M.

    2015-01-01

    The project will use high-fidelity physics models and simulations to simulate real-time operations of cryogenic and systems and calculate the status/health of the systems. The project enables the delivery of system health advisories to ground system operators. The capability will also be used to conduct planning and analysis of cryogenic system operations. This project will develop and implement high-fidelity physics-based modeling techniques tosimulate the real-time operation of cryogenics and other fluids systems and, when compared to thereal-time operation of the actual systems, provide assessment of their state. Physics-modelcalculated measurements (called “pseudo-sensors”) will be compared to the system real-timedata. Comparison results will be utilized to provide systems operators with enhanced monitoring ofsystems' health and status, identify off-nominal trends and diagnose system/component failures.This capability can also be used to conduct planning and analysis of cryogenics and other fluidsystems designs. This capability will be interfaced with the ground operations command andcontrol system as a part of the Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance (AGSM) project to helpassure system availability and mission success. The initial capability will be developed for theLiquid Oxygen (LO2) ground loading systems.

  19. Mathematical Modeling Projects: Success for All Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelton, Therese

    2018-01-01

    Mathematical modeling allows flexibility for a project-based experience. We share details of our regular capstone course, successful for virtually 100% of our math majors for almost two decades. Our research-like approach in this course accommodates a variety of student backgrounds and interests, and has produced some award-winning student…

  20. A financing model to solve financial barriers for implementing green building projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sanghyo; Lee, Baekrae; Kim, Juhyung; Kim, Jaejun

    2013-01-01

    Along with the growing interest in greenhouse gas reduction, the effect of greenhouse gas energy reduction from implementing green buildings is gaining attention. The government of the Republic of Korea has set green growth as its paradigm for national development, and there is a growing interest in energy saving for green buildings. However, green buildings may have financial barriers that have high initial construction costs and uncertainties about future project value. Under the circumstances, governmental support to attract private funding is necessary to implement green building projects. The objective of this study is to suggest a financing model for facilitating green building projects with a governmental guarantee based on Certified Emission Reduction (CER). In this model, the government provides a guarantee for the increased costs of a green building project in return for CER. And this study presents the validation of the model as well as feasibility for implementing green building project. In addition, the suggested model assumed governmental guarantees for the increased cost, but private guarantees seem to be feasible as well because of the promising value of the guarantee from CER. To do this, certification of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) for green buildings must be obtained.

  1. A Management Maturity Model (MMM for project-based organisational performance assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Langston

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Common sense suggests that organisations are more likely to deliver successful projects if they have systems in place that reflect a mature project environment based on a culture of continuous improvement. This paper develops and discusses a Management Maturity Model (MMM to assess the maturity of project management organisations through a customisable, systematic, strategic and practical methodology inspired from the seminal work of Darwin, Deming, Drucker and Daniel. The model presented is relevant to organisations, such as construction and engineering companies, that prefer to use the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK™ Guide published by the Project Management Institute (PMI, but without the disadvantages of excessive time and cost commitments and a ‘one size fits all’ approach linked to rigid increments of maturity. It offers a game-changing advance in the application of project-based organisational performance assessment compared to existing market solutions that are unnecessarily complex. The feasibility of MMM is field-tested using a medium-sized data centre infrastructure firm in Tehran.

  2. The global sustainability project and the LLNL China energy systems model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, N; Lamont, A; Stewart, J; Woodrow, C.

    1999-01-01

    The sustainability of our modern way of life is becoming a major concern of both our domestic and international policy. The Rio conference on the environment and the recent Kyoto conference on global climate change are two indications of the importance of solving global environmental problem. Energy is a key component in global sustainability since obtaining and using it has major environmental effects. If our energy systems are to be sustainable in the long run, they must be structured using technologies that have a minimal impact on our environment and resources. At the same time, they must meet practical economic requirements: they must be reasonably economical, they must meet the needs of society and they must be tailored to the resources that are available in a particular region or country. Because economic considerations and government policies both determine the development of the energy system, economic and systems modeling can help us better understand ways that new technologies and policies can be used to obtain a more sustainable system. The Global Sustainability Project has developed both economic modeling software and models to help us better understand these issues and has applied them to the analysis of energy and environmental problems in China. In the past year, the models and data developed by the project have been used to support other projects investigating the interaction of technologies and the environment. The project this year has focused on software development to improve our modeling tools and on the refinement and application of the China Energy System model. The major thrust of the software development has been improvements in the METANet economic software system. We have modified its solution algorithm to improve speed and accuracy of the solutions and to make it compatible with the SuperCode modeling system. It is planned to eventually merge the two systems to take advantage of the faster, more flexible solution algorithms of Super

  3. Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

    1992-04-01

    This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

  4. Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

  5. The Copenhagen Traffic Model and its Application in the Metro City Ring Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vuk, Goran; Overgård, Christian Hansen; Fox, J.

    2009-01-01

    In June 2007, the Danish Parliament passed an act to finance the construction of the Metro City Ring in Copenhagen. The assessment project is based on the passenger patronage forecasts for 2015 from the Copenhagen traffic model. In this paper we show how the model forecasts for this particular...... infrastructure project can be explained through detailed knowledge of model structure and model validation....

  6. Building Context with Tumor Growth Modeling Projects in Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, Julie C.; Gevertz, Jana L.; Howard, Keith E.

    2015-01-01

    The use of modeling projects serves to integrate, reinforce, and extend student knowledge. Here we present two projects related to tumor growth appropriate for a first course in differential equations. They illustrate the use of problem-based learning to reinforce and extend course content via a writing or research experience. Here we discuss…

  7. Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Elizabeth A; Polvani, Lorenzo M; Sobel, Adam H

    2013-09-17

    Superstorm Sandy ravaged the eastern seaboard of the United States, costing a great number of lives and billions of dollars in damage. Whether events like Sandy will become more frequent as anthropogenic greenhouse gases continue to increase remains an open and complex question. Here we consider whether the persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns that steered Sandy onto the coast will become more frequent in the coming decades. Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 multimodel ensemble, we demonstrate that climate models consistently project a decrease in the frequency and persistence of the westward flow that led to Sandy's unprecedented track, implying that future atmospheric conditions are less likely than at present to propel storms westward into the coast.

  8. Modeling Change in Project Duration and Completion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiltshire, Travis; Butner, Jonathan E.; Pirtle, Zachary

    2017-01-01

    In complex work domains and organizations, understanding scheduleing dynamics can ensure objectives are reached and delays are mitigated. In the current paper, we examine the scheduling dynamics for NASA’s Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) activities. For this examination, we specifically modeled...... simultaneous change in percent complete and estimated duration for a given project as they were included in monthly reports over time. In short, we utilized latent change score mixture modeling to extract the attractor dynamics within the scheduling data. We found three primarily patterns: an attractor at low...

  9. A Financing Model to Solve Financial Barriers for Implementing Green Building Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Baekrae; Kim, Juhyung; Kim, Jaejun

    2013-01-01

    Along with the growing interest in greenhouse gas reduction, the effect of greenhouse gas energy reduction from implementing green buildings is gaining attention. The government of the Republic of Korea has set green growth as its paradigm for national development, and there is a growing interest in energy saving for green buildings. However, green buildings may have financial barriers that have high initial construction costs and uncertainties about future project value. Under the circumstances, governmental support to attract private funding is necessary to implement green building projects. The objective of this study is to suggest a financing model for facilitating green building projects with a governmental guarantee based on Certified Emission Reduction (CER). In this model, the government provides a guarantee for the increased costs of a green building project in return for CER. And this study presents the validation of the model as well as feasibility for implementing green building project. In addition, the suggested model assumed governmental guarantees for the increased cost, but private guarantees seem to be feasible as well because of the promising value of the guarantee from CER. To do this, certification of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) for green buildings must be obtained. PMID:24376379

  10. Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainali, Kumar P; Warren, Dan L; Dhileepan, Kunjithapatham; McConnachie, Andrew; Strathie, Lorraine; Hassan, Gul; Karki, Debendra; Shrestha, Bharat B; Parmesan, Camille

    2015-12-01

    Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium

  11. How to Gain Value from a Project Management Model: Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Eva; Eskerod, Pernille

    2010-01-01

      Recent research has shown that PM models can be a powerful creator of value for companies. This paper extends this research aiming at gaining a deeper understanding of the preconditions that must exist for harvesting the values of a common frame of reference for project management. It reports...... findings from in-depth investigations in a Danish industrial concern that considers its PM model as the core of its project activities.  ...

  12. THE MODEL OF EXPERT SYSTEM FOR SCIENTIFIC PROJECTS EVALUATION IN HIGHER EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олександр Михайлович ВОЗНИЙ

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available There have been proposed the model of the expert system for the assessment of research projects in higher educational institutions, based on estimates of probability. It allows to rank alternative projects and scenarios. The model is implemented through the software "Small expert system." The principle of calculating the probability of approval of research projects, which form the basis of the expert system, is based on Bayes' theorem. Expert system calculates the probability of approval of research projects by Ministry of Science and Education on the basis of the responses to questions about the content of the request for the execution of research projects. Questions are formed on the basis of the criteria by which experts of state authorities evaluate scientific research projects.

  13. Cacao Intensification in Sulawesi: A Green Prosperity Model Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriarty, K.; Elchinger, M.; Hill, G.; Katz, J.; Barnett, J.

    2014-09-01

    NREL conducted eight model projects for Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) Compact with Indonesia. Green Prosperity, the largest project of the Compact, seeks to address critical constraints to economic growth while supporting the Government of Indonesia's commitment to a more sustainable, less carbon-intensive future. This study evaluates techniques to improve cacao farming in Sulawesi Indonesia with an emphasis on Farmer Field Schools and Cocoa Development Centers to educate farmers and for train the trainer programs. The study estimates the economic viability of cacao farming if smallholder implement techniques to increase yield as well as social and environmental impacts of the project.

  14. The EV Project Price/Fee Models for Publicly Accessible Charging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Francfort, James Edward [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-12-01

    As plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are introduced to the market place and gain more consumer acceptance, it is important for a robust and self-sustaining non-residential infrastructure of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) to be established to meet the needs of PEV drivers. While federal and state financial incentives for electric vehicles were in place and remain so today, future incentives are uncertain. In order for PEVs to achieve mainstream adoption, an adequate and sustainable commercial or publicly available charging infrastructure was pursued by The EV Project to encourage increased PEV purchases by alleviating range anxiety, and by removing adoption barriers for consumers without a dedicated overnight parking location to provide a home-base charger. This included determining a business model for publicly accessible charge infrastructure. To establish this business model, The EV Project team created a fee for charge model along with various ancillary offerings related to charging that would generate revenue. And after placing chargers in the field the Project rolled out this fee structure.

  15. Microcomputer model for an analysis of the financial feasibility of a mining project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciruelos, J.; Duchene, M.

    1983-01-01

    The model presented permits a simulation of the predicted profitability of a mining project at the stage of feasibility studies by making use of a simple individual computer, the Apple II. The model presented can be used to treat the following three areas: definition of the mode of financing the project and calculation of the financial flows which make it possible to evaluate the profitability of this project; analysis of sensitivity, which makes it possible to determine the most critical variables for the future of the project; analysis of the risk [fr

  16. Project Photofly: New 3d Modeling Online Web Service (case Studies and Assessments)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abate, D.; Furini, G.; Migliori, S.; Pierattini, S.

    2011-09-01

    During summer 2010, Autodesk has released a still ongoing project called Project Photofly, freely downloadable from AutodeskLab web site until August 1 2011. Project Photofly based on computer-vision and photogrammetric principles, exploiting the power of cloud computing, is a web service able to convert collections of photographs into 3D models. Aim of our research was to evaluate the Project Photofly, through different case studies, for 3D modeling of cultural heritage monuments and objects, mostly to identify for which goals and objects it is suitable. The automatic approach will be mainly analyzed.

  17. A conceptual model of psychological contracts in construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongjian Ke

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The strategic importance of relationship style contracting is recognised in the construction industry. Both public and private sector clients are stipulating more integrated and collaborative forms of procurement. Despite relationship and integrated contractual arrangement being available for some time, it is clear that construction firms have been slow to adopt them. Hence it is timely to examine how social exchanges, via unwritten agreement and behaviours, are being nurtured in construction projects. This paper adopted the concept of Psychological Contracts (PC to describe unwritten agreement and behaviours. A conceptual model of the PC is developed and validated using the results from a questionnaire survey administered to construction professionals in Australia. The results uncovered the relationships that existed amongst relational conditions and relational benefits, the PC and the partners’ satisfaction. The results show that all the hypotheses in the conceptual model of the PC are supported, suggesting the PC model is important and may have an effect on project performance and relationship quality among contracting parties. A validated model of the PC in construction was then developed based on the correlations among each component. The managerial implications are that past relationships and relationship characteristics should be taken into account in the selection of procurement partners and the promise of future resources, support and tangible relational outcomes are also vital. It is important for contracting parties to pay attention to unwritten agreements (the PC and behaviours when managing construction projects.

  18. [Reconstruction and measurement of a digital dental model using grating projection and reverse engineering].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhenzhen, Wang; Yi, Lu; Jun, Song; Jun, Chen; Qin, Zhou

    2015-02-01

    This work lays the foundation for establishing a digital model database with normal occlusion. A digital dental cast is acquired through grating projection, and model features are measured through reverse engineering. The grating projection system controlled by a computer was projected onto the surface of a normal dental model. Three-dimensional contour data were obtained through multi-angle shooting. A three-dimensional model was constructed, and the model features were analyzed by using reverse engineering. The digital model was compared with the plaster model to determine the accuracy of the measurement system. The structure of three-dimensional reconstruction model was clear. The digital models of two measurements exhibited no significant difference (P > 0.05). When digital and plaster models were measured, we found that the crown length and arch width were not statistically different (P > 0.05), whereas the difference between the crown width and arch length was statistically significant (P model by using the grating projection technique and reverse engineering can be used for dental model measurement in clinic al and scientific research and can provide a scientific method for establishing a digital model database with normal occlusion.

  19. Modelling Project Feasibility Robustness by Use of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld; Leleur, Steen

    1998-01-01

    , SEAM secures a consistent inclusion of actual scenario elements in the quantitative impact modelling and facilitates a transparent project feasibility robustness analysis. SEAM is implemented as part of a decision support system with a toolbox structure applicable to different types of transport...

  20. Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project Digital Elevation Model, Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The high-resolution Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project (RAMP) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) combines topographic data from a variety of sources to provide consistent...

  1. A whole stand basal area projection model for Appalachian hardwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    John R. Brooks; Lichun Jiang; Matthew Perkowski; Benktesh Sharma

    2008-01-01

    Two whole-stand basal area projection models were developed for Appalachian hardwood stands. The proposed equations are an algebraic difference projection form based on existing basal area and the change in age, trees per acre, and/or dominant height. Average equation error was less than 10 square feet per acre and residuals exhibited no irregular trends.

  2. The EGS Collab Project: Stimulation Investigations for Geothermal Modeling Analysis and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankenship, D.; Kneafsey, T. J.

    2017-12-01

    The US DOE's EGS Collab project team is establishing a suite of intermediate-scale ( 10-20 m) field test beds for coupled stimulation and interwell flow tests. The multiple national laboratory and university team is designing the tests to compare measured data to models to improve measurement and modeling toolsets available for use in field sites and investigations such as DOE's Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) Project. Our tests will be well-controlled, in situexperiments focused on rock fracture behavior, seismicity, and permeability enhancement. Pre- and post-test modeling will allow for model prediction and validation. High-quality, high-resolution geophysical and other fracture characterization data will be collected, analyzed, and compared with models and field observations to further elucidate the basic relationships between stress, induced seismicity, and permeability enhancement. Coring through the stimulated zone after tests will provide fracture characteristics that can be compared to monitoring data and model predictions. We will also observe and quantify other key governing parameters that impact permeability, and attempt to understand how these parameters might change throughout the development and operation of an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) project with the goal of enabling commercial viability of EGS. The Collab team will perform three major experiments over the three-year project duration. Experiment 1, intended to investigate hydraulic fracturing, will be performed in the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) at 4,850 feet depth and will build on kISMET Project findings. Experiment 2 will be designed to investigate hydroshearing. Experiment 3 will investigate changes in fracturing strategies and will be further specified as the project proceeds. The tests will provide quantitative insights into the nature of stimulation (e.g., hydraulic fracturing, hydroshearing, mixed-mode fracturing, thermal fracturing

  3. The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

    2005-01-01

    1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

  4. Projection pursuit water quality evaluation model based on chicken swam algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhe

    2018-03-01

    In view of the uncertainty and ambiguity of each index in water quality evaluation, in order to solve the incompatibility of evaluation results of individual water quality indexes, a projection pursuit model based on chicken swam algorithm is proposed. The projection index function which can reflect the water quality condition is constructed, the chicken group algorithm (CSA) is introduced, the projection index function is optimized, the best projection direction of the projection index function is sought, and the best projection value is obtained to realize the water quality evaluation. The comparison between this method and other methods shows that it is reasonable and feasible to provide decision-making basis for water pollution control in the basin.

  5. CRAUDFUNDING AS A PERSPECTIVE MODEL OF FINANCING BUSINESS IDEAS AND PROJECTS

    OpenAIRE

    Vyacheslav Riznyk; Nadiya Riznyk

    2018-01-01

    The subject of research is crowdfunding as an alternative model of attracting financing for the implementation business ideas and projects based on the use of crowdfunding Internet platforms. The purpose of the article is to clarify the possibilities of crowdfunding as a new financial instrument and a promising source of funding. The aim of the article is to consider crowdfunding as an alternative model for financing author's business ideas and projects, to analyze the main types and mo...

  6. Application of Markovian model to school enrolment projection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Application of Markovian model to school enrolment projection process. VU Ekhosuehi, AA Osagiede. Abstract. No Abstract. Global Journal of Mathematical Sciences Vol. 5(1) 2006: 9-16. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT.

  7. Model Diagnostics for the Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, B.

    2015-12-01

    In 2014, eight Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, four academic institutions, one company, and the National Centre for Atmospheric Research combined forces in a project called Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) with the goal to speed Earth system model development for climate and energy. Over the planned 10-year span, the project will conduct simulations and modeling on DOE's most powerful high-performance computing systems at Oak Ridge, Argonne, and Lawrence Berkeley Leadership Compute Facilities. A key component of the ACME project is the development of an interactive test bed for the advanced Earth system model. Its execution infrastructure will accelerate model development and testing cycles. The ACME Workflow Group is leading the efforts to automate labor-intensive tasks, provide intelligent support for complex tasks and reduce duplication of effort through collaboration support. As part of this new workflow environment, we have created a diagnostic, metric, and intercomparison Python framework, called UVCMetrics, to aid in the testing-to-production execution of the ACME model. The framework exploits similarities among different diagnostics to compactly support diagnosis of new models. It presently focuses on atmosphere and land but is designed to support ocean and sea ice model components as well. This framework is built on top of the existing open-source software framework known as the Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT). Because of its flexible framework design, scientists and modelers now can generate thousands of possible diagnostic outputs. These diagnostics can compare model runs, compare model vs. observation, or simply verify a model is physically realistic. Additional diagnostics are easily integrated into the framework, and our users have already added several. Diagnostics can be generated, viewed, and manipulated from the UV-CDAT graphical user interface, Python command line scripts and programs

  8. Compilation Of An Econometric Human Resource Efficiency Model For Project Management Best Practices

    OpenAIRE

    G. van Zyl; P. Venier

    2006-01-01

    The aim of the paper is to introduce a human resource efficiency model in order to rank the most important human resource driving forces for project management best practices. The results of the model will demonstrate how the human resource component of project management acts as the primary function to enhance organizational performance, codified through improved logical end-state programmes, work ethics and process contributions. Given the hypothesis that project management best practices i...

  9. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario......-based graphs which function as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project....

  10. Reducing Spread in Climate Model Projections of a September Ice-Free Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jiping; Song, Mirong; Horton, Radley M.; Hu, Yongyun

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the specter of a September ice-free Arctic in the 21st century using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that large spread in the projected timing of the September ice-free Arctic in 30 CMIP5 models is associated at least as much with different atmospheric model components as with initial conditions. Here we reduce the spread in the timing of an ice-free state using two different approaches for the 30 CMIP5 models: (i) model selection based on the ability to reproduce the observed sea ice climatology and variability since 1979 and (ii) constrained estimation based on the strong and persistent relationship between present and future sea ice conditions. Results from the two approaches show good agreement. Under a high-emission scenario both approaches project that September ice extent will drop to approx. 1.7 million sq km in the mid 2040s and reach the ice-free state (defined as 1 million sq km) in 2054-2058. Under a medium-mitigation scenario, both approaches project a decrease to approx.1.7 million sq km in the early 2060s, followed by a leveling off in the ice extent.

  11. Managing wildland fires: integrating weather models into fire projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anne M. Rosenthal; Francis Fujioka

    2004-01-01

    Flames from the Old Fire sweep through lands north of San Bernardino during late fall of 2003. Like many Southern California fires, the Old Fire consumed susceptible forests at the urban-wildland interface and spread to nearby city neighborhoods. By incorporating weather models into fire perimeter projections, scientist Francis Fujioka is improving fire modeling as a...

  12. Implementing parallel spreadsheet models for health policy decisions: The impact of unintentional errors on model projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Stephanie L; Bono, Rose S; Nash, Denis; Kimmel, April D

    2018-01-01

    Spreadsheet software is increasingly used to implement systems science models informing health policy decisions, both in academia and in practice where technical capacity may be limited. However, spreadsheet models are prone to unintentional errors that may not always be identified using standard error-checking techniques. Our objective was to illustrate, through a methodologic case study analysis, the impact of unintentional errors on model projections by implementing parallel model versions. We leveraged a real-world need to revise an existing spreadsheet model designed to inform HIV policy. We developed three parallel versions of a previously validated spreadsheet-based model; versions differed by the spreadsheet cell-referencing approach (named single cells; column/row references; named matrices). For each version, we implemented three model revisions (re-entry into care; guideline-concordant treatment initiation; immediate treatment initiation). After standard error-checking, we identified unintentional errors by comparing model output across the three versions. Concordant model output across all versions was considered error-free. We calculated the impact of unintentional errors as the percentage difference in model projections between model versions with and without unintentional errors, using +/-5% difference to define a material error. We identified 58 original and 4,331 propagated unintentional errors across all model versions and revisions. Over 40% (24/58) of original unintentional errors occurred in the column/row reference model version; most (23/24) were due to incorrect cell references. Overall, >20% of model spreadsheet cells had material unintentional errors. When examining error impact along the HIV care continuum, the percentage difference between versions with and without unintentional errors ranged from +3% to +16% (named single cells), +26% to +76% (column/row reference), and 0% (named matrices). Standard error-checking techniques may not

  13. 3d-modelling workflows for trans-nationally shared geological models - first approaches from the project GeoMol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupf, Isabel

    2013-04-01

    To meet the EU's ambitious targets for carbon emission reduction, renewable energy production has to be strongly upgraded and made more efficient for grid energy storage. Alpine Foreland Basins feature a unique geological inventory which can contribute substantially to tackle these challenges. They offer a geothermal potential and storage capacity for compressed air, as well as space for underground storage of CO2. Exploiting these natural subsurface resources will strongly compete with existing oil and gas claims and groundwater issues. The project GeoMol will provide consistent 3-dimensional subsurface information about the Alpine Foreland Basins based on a holistic and transnational approach. Core of the project GeoMol is a geological framework model for the entire Northern Molasse Basin, complemented by five detailed models in pilot areas, also in the Po Basin, which are dedicated to specific questions of subsurface use. The models will consist of up to 13 litho-stratigraphic horizons ranging from the Cenozoic basin fill down to Mesozoic and late Paleozoic sedimentary rocks and the crystalline basement. More than 5000 wells and 28 000 km seismic lines serve as input data sets for the geological subsurface model. The data have multiple sources and various acquisition dates, and their interpretations have gone through several paradigm changes. Therefore, it is necessary to standardize the data with regards to technical parameters and content prior to further analysis (cf. Capar et al. 2013, EGU2013-5349). Each partner will build its own geological subsurface model with different software solutions for seismic interpretation and 3d-modelling. Therefore, 3d-modelling follows different software- and partner-specific workflows. One of the main challenges of the project is to ensure a seamlessly fitting framework model. It is necessary to define several milestones for cross border checks during the whole modelling process. Hence, the main input data set of the

  14. Measurement Rounding Errors in an Assessment Model of Project Led Engineering Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Moreira

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the rounding errors that occur in the assessment of an interdisciplinary Project-Led Education (PLE process implemented in the Integrated Master degree on Industrial Management and Engineering (IME at University of Minho. PLE is an innovative educational methodology which makes use of active learning, promoting higher levels of motivation and students’ autonomy. The assessment model is based on multiple evaluation components with different weights. Each component can be evaluated by several teachers involved in different Project Supporting Courses (PSC. This model can be affected by different types of errors, namely: (1 rounding errors, and (2 non-uniform criteria of rounding the grades. A rigorous analysis of the assessment model was made and the rounding errors involved on each project component were characterized and measured. This resulted in a global maximum error of 0.308 on the individual student project grade, in a 0 to 100 scale. This analysis intended to improve not only the reliability of the assessment results, but also teachers’ awareness of this problem. Recommendations are also made in order to improve the assessment model and reduce the rounding errors as much as possible.

  15. Atomic Data and Modelling for Fusion: the ADAS Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Summers, H. P.; O'Mullane, M. G.

    2011-01-01

    The paper is an update on the Atomic Data and Analysis Structure, ADAS, since ICAM-DATA06 and a forward look to its evolution in the next five years. ADAS is an international project supporting principally magnetic confinement fusion research. It has participant laboratories throughout the world, including ITER and all its partner countries. In parallel with ADAS, the ADAS-EU Project provides enhanced support for fusion research at Associated Laboratories and Universities in Europe and ITER. OPEN-ADAS, sponsored jointly by the ADAS Project and IAEA, is the mechanism for open access to principal ADAS atomic data classes and facilitating software for their use. EXTENDED-ADAS comprises a variety of special, integrated application software, beyond the purely atomic bounds of ADAS, tuned closely to specific diagnostic analyses and plasma models.The current scientific content and scope of these various ADAS and ADAS related activities are briefly reviewed. These span a number of themes including heavy element spectroscopy and models, charge exchange spectroscopy, beam emission spectroscopy and special features which provide a broad baseline of atomic modelling and support. Emphasis will be placed on 'lifting the fundamental data baseline'--a principal ADAS task for the next few years. This will include discussion of ADAS and ADAS-EU coordinated and shared activities and some of the methods being exploited.

  16. City of Austin: Green habitat learning project. A green builder model home project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-01

    The purpose of the Year 14 UCETF project was to design and construct a residential structure that could serve as a demonstration facility, training site, and testing and monitoring laboratory for issues related to the implementation of sustainable building practices and materials. The Model Home Project builds on the previous and existing efforts, partially funded by the UCETF, of the City of Austin Green Builder Program to incorporate sustainable building practices into mainstream building activities. The Green Builder Program uses the term {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} as a synonym for sustainability. In the research and analysis that was completed for our earlier reports in Years 12 and 13, we characterized specific elements that we associate with sustainability and, thus, green building. In general, we refer to a modified life cycle assessment to ascertain if {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building options reflect similar positive cyclical patterns found in nature (i.e. recyclability, recycled content, renewable resources, etc.). We additionally consider economic, human health and synergistic ecological impacts associated with our building choices and characterize the best choices as {open_quotes}green.{close_quotes} Our ultimate goal is to identify and use those {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials and processes that provide well for us now and do not compromise similar benefits for future generations. The original partnership developed for this project shifted during the year from a project stressing advanced (many prototypical) {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building materials and techniques in a research and demonstration context, to off-the-shelf but underutilized {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials in the practical social context of using {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} technologies for low income housing. That project, discussed in this report, is called the Green Habitat Learning Project.

  17. Integrating Economic Models with Biophysical Models in the Willamette Water 2100 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, W. K.; Plantinga, A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper highlights the human system modeling components for Willamette Water 2100, a comprehensive, highly integrated study of hydrological, ecological, and human factors affecting water scarcity in the Willamette River Basin (WRB). The project is developing a spatiotemporal simulation model to predict future trajectories of water scarcity, and to evaluate mitigation policies. Economic models of land use and water use are the main human system models in WW2100. Water scarcity depends on both supply and demand for water, and varies greatly across time and space (Jaeger et al., 2013). Thus, the locations of human water use can have enormous influence on where and when water is used, and hence where water scarcity may arise. Modeling the locations of human uses of water (e.g., urban versus agricultural) as well as human values and choices, are the principal quantitative ways that social science can contribute to research of this kind. Our models are empirically-based models of human resource allocation. Each model reflects private behavior (choices by households, farms, firms), institutions (property rights, laws, markets, regulations), public infrastructure (dams, canals, highways), and also 'external drivers' that influence the local economy (migration, population growth, national markets and policies). This paper describes the main model components, emphasizing similarities between human and biophysical components of the overall project, and the model's linkages and feedbacks relevant to our predictions of changes in water scarcity between now and 2100. Results presented include new insights from individual model components as well as available results from the integrated system model. Issues include water scarcity and water quality (temperature) for out-of-stream and instream uses, the impact of urban expansion on water use and potential flood damage. Changes in timing and variability of spring discharge with climate change, as well as changes in human uses of

  18. A Model Suggestion to Predict Leverage Ratio for Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özlem Tüz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to the nature, construction is an industry with high uncertainty and risk. Construction industry carries high leverage ratios. Firms with low equities work in big projects through progress payment system, but in this case, even a small negative in the planned cash flows constitute a major risk for the company.The use of leverage, with a small investment to achieve profit targets large-scale, high-profit, but also brings a high risk with it. Investors may lose all or the portion of the money. In this study, monitoring and measuring of the leverage ratio because of the displacement in cash inflows of construction projects which uses high leverage and low cash to do business in the sector is targeted. Cash need because of drifting the cash inflows may be seen due to the model. Work should be done in the early stages of the project with little capital but in the later stages, rapidly growing capital need arises.The values obtained from the model may be used to supply the capital held in the right time by anticipating the risks because of the delay in cashflow of construction projects which uses high leverage ratio.

  19. Applying a Hybrid MCDM Model for Six Sigma Project Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu-Kwun Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Six Sigma is a project-driven methodology; the projects that provide the maximum financial benefits and other impacts to the organization must be prioritized. Project selection (PS is a type of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM problem. In this study, we present a hybrid MCDM model combining the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL technique, analytic network process (ANP, and the VIKOR method to evaluate and improve Six Sigma projects for reducing performance gaps in each criterion and dimension. We consider the film printing industry of Taiwan as an empirical case. The results show that our study not only can use the best project selection, but can also be used to analyze the gaps between existing performance values and aspiration levels for improving the gaps in each dimension and criterion based on the influential network relation map.

  20. Cloud radiative effects and changes simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Sun-Hee; Kim, Ok-Yeon; Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In

    2017-07-01

    Using 32 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, this study examines the veracity in the simulation of cloud amount and their radiative effects (CREs) in the historical run driven by observed external radiative forcing for 1850-2005, and their future changes in the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario runs for 2006-2100. Validation metrics for the historical run are designed to examine the accuracy in the representation of spatial patterns for climatological mean, and annual and interannual variations of clouds and CREs. The models show large spread in the simulation of cloud amounts, specifically in the low cloud amount. The observed relationship between cloud amount and the controlling large-scale environment are also reproduced diversely by various models. Based on the validation metrics, four models—ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, HadGEM2-CC, and HadGEM2-ES—are selected as best models, and the average of the four models performs more skillfully than the multimodel ensemble average. All models project global-mean SST warming at the increase of the greenhouse gases, but the magnitude varies across the simulations between 1 and 2 K, which is largely attributable to the difference in the change of cloud amount and distribution. The models that simulate more SST warming show a greater increase in the net CRE due to reduced low cloud and increased incoming shortwave radiation, particularly over the regions of marine boundary layer in the subtropics. Selected best-performing models project a significant reduction in global-mean cloud amount of about -0.99% K-1 and net radiative warming of 0.46 W m-2 K-1, suggesting a role of positive feedback to global warming.

  1. MODELLING OF FINANCIAL EFFECTIVENESS AND COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS AND PUBLIC PROCUREMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuznetsov Aleksey Alekseevich

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The article substantiates the necessity of extension and development of tools for methodological evaluation of effectiveness of public-private partnership (PPP projects both individually and in comparison of effectiveness of various mechanisms of projects realization on the example of traditional public procurement. The author proposed an original technique of modelling cash flows of private and public partners when realizing the projects based on PPP and on public procurement. The model enables us promptly and with sufficient accuracy to reveal comparative advantages of project forms of PPP and public procurement, and also assess financial effectiveness of the PPP projects for each partner. The modelling is relatively straightforward and reliable. The model also enables us to evaluate public partner's expenses for availability, find the terms and thresholds for interest rates of financing attracted by the partners and for risk probabilities to ensure comparative advantage of PPP project. Proposed criteria of effectiveness are compared with methodological recommendations provided by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. Subject: public and private organizations, financial institutions, development institutions and their theoretical and practical techniques for effectiveness evaluation of public-private partnership (PPP projects. Complexity of effectiveness evaluation and the lack of unified and accepted methodology are among the factors that limit the development of PPP in the Russian Federation nowadays. Research objectives: development of methodological methods for assessing financial efficiency of PPP projects by creating and justifying application of new principles and methods of modelling, and also criteria for effectiveness of PPP projects both individually and in comparison with the public procurement. Materials and methods: open database of ongoing PPP projects in the Russian Federation and abroad was used. The

  2. Catchment Models and Management Tools for diffuse Contaminants (Sediment, Phosphorus and Pesticides): DIFFUSE Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mockler, Eva; Reaney, Simeon; Mellander, Per-Erik; Wade, Andrew; Collins, Adrian; Arheimer, Berit; Bruen, Michael

    2017-04-01

    The agricultural sector is the most common suspected source of nutrient pollution in Irish rivers. However, it is also often the most difficult source to characterise due to its predominantly diffuse nature. Particulate phosphorus in surface water and dissolved phosphorus in groundwater are of particular concern in Irish water bodies. Hence the further development of models and indices to assess diffuse sources of contaminants are required for use by the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to provide support for river basin planning. Understanding connectivity in the landscape is a vital component of characterising the source-pathway-receptor relationships for water-borne contaminants, and hence is a priority in this research. The DIFFUSE Project will focus on connectivity modelling and incorporation of connectivity into sediment, nutrient and pesticide risk mapping. The Irish approach to understanding and managing natural water bodies has developed substantially in recent years assisted by outputs from multiple research projects, including modelling and analysis tools developed during the Pathways and CatchmentTools projects. These include the Pollution Impact Potential (PIP) maps, which are an example of research output that is used by the EPA to support catchment management. The PIP maps integrate an understanding of the pollution pressures and mobilisation pathways and, using the source-pathways-receptor model, provide a scientific basis for evaluation of mitigation measures. These maps indicate the potential risk posed by nitrate and phosphate from diffuse agricultural sources to surface and groundwater receptors and delineate critical source areas (CSAs) as a means of facilitating the targeting of mitigation measures. Building on this previous research, the DIFFUSE Project will develop revised and new catchment managements tools focused on connectivity, sediment, phosphorus and pesticides. The DIFFUSE project will strive to identify the state

  3. Improvement of the projection models for radiogenic cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tong Jian

    2005-01-01

    Calculations of radiogenic cancer risk are based on the risk projection models for specific cancer sites. Improvement has been made for the parameters used in the previous models including introductions of mortality and morbidity risk coefficients, and age-/ gender-specific risk coefficients. These coefficients have been applied to calculate the radiogenic cancer risks for specific organs and radionuclides under different exposure scenarios. (authors)

  4. Innovations in projecting emissions for air quality modeling ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air quality modeling is used in setting air quality standards and in evaluating their costs and benefits. Historically, modeling applications have projected emissions and the resulting air quality only 5 to 10 years into the future. Recognition that the choice of air quality management strategy has climate change implications is encouraging longer modeling time horizons. However, for multi-decadal time horizons, many questions about future conditions arise. For example, will current population, economic, and land use trends continue, or will we see shifts that may alter the spatial and temporal pattern of emissions? Similarly, will technologies such as building-integrated solar photovoltaics, battery storage, electric vehicles, and CO2 capture emerge as disruptive technologies - shifting how we produce and use energy - or will these technologies achieve only niche markets and have little impact? These are some of the questions that are being evaluated by researchers within the U.S. EPA’s Office of Research and Development. In this presentation, Dr. Loughlin will describe a range of analytical approaches that are being explored. These include: (i) the development of alternative scenarios of the future that can be used to evaluate candidate management strategies over wide-ranging conditions, (ii) the application of energy system models to project emissions decades into the future and to assess the environmental implications of new technologies, (iii) and methodo

  5. Supporting Current Energy Conversion Projects through Numerical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, S. C.; Roberts, J.

    2016-02-01

    The primary goals of current energy conversion (CEC) technology being developed today are to optimize energy output and minimize environmental impact. CEC turbines generate energy from tidal and current systems and create wakes that interact with turbines located downstream of a device. The placement of devices can greatly influence power generation and structural reliability. CECs can also alter the environment surrounding the turbines, such as flow regimes, sediment dynamics, and water quality. These alterations pose potential stressors to numerous environmental receptors. Software is needed to investigate specific CEC sites to simulate power generation and hydrodynamic responses of a flow through a CEC turbine array so that these potential impacts can be evaluated. Moreover, this software can be used to optimize array layouts that yield the least changes to the environmental (i.e., hydrodynamics, sediment dynamics, and water quality). Through model calibration exercises, simulated wake profiles and turbulence intensities compare favorably to the experimental data and demonstrate the utility and accuracy of a fast-running tool for future siting and analysis of CEC arrays in complex domains. The Delft3D modeling tool facilitates siting of CEC projects through optimization of array layouts and evaluation of potential environmental effect all while provide a common "language" for academics, industry, and regulators to be able to discuss the implications of marine renewable energy projects. Given the enormity of any full-scale marine renewable energy project, it necessarily falls to modeling to evaluate how array operations must be addressed in an environmental impact statement in a way that engenders confidence in the assessment of the CEC array to minimize environmental effects.

  6. MODELS AND METHODS OF SAFETY-ORIENTED PROJECT MANAGEMENT OF DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS: METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олег Богданович ЗАЧКО

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The methods and models of safety-oriented project management of the development of complex systems are proposed resulting from the convergence of existing approaches in project management in contrast to the mechanism of value-oriented management. A cognitive model of safety oriented project management of the development of complex systems is developed, which provides a synergistic effect that is to move the system from the original (pre condition in an optimal one from the viewpoint of life safety - post-project state. The approach of assessment the project complexity is proposed, which consists in taking into account the seasonal component of a time characteristic of life cycles of complex organizational and technical systems with occupancy. This enabled to take into account the seasonal component in simulation models of life cycle of the product operation in complex organizational and technical system, modeling the critical points of operation of systems with occupancy, which forms a new methodology for safety-oriented management of projects, programs and portfolios of projects with the formalization of the elements of complexity.

  7. Visualizing projected Climate Changes - the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böttinger, Michael; Eyring, Veronika; Lauer, Axel; Meier-Fleischer, Karin

    2017-04-01

    Large ensembles add an additional dimension to climate model simulations. Internal variability of the climate system can be assessed for example by multiple climate model simulations with small variations in the initial conditions or by analyzing the spread in large ensembles made by multiple climate models under common protocols. This spread is often used as a measure of uncertainty in climate projections. In the context of the fifth phase of the WCRP's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), more than 40 different coupled climate models were employed to carry out a coordinated set of experiments. Time series of the development of integral quantities such as the global mean temperature change for all models visualize the spread in the multi-model ensemble. A similar approach can be applied to 2D-visualizations of projected climate changes such as latitude-longitude maps showing the multi-model mean of the ensemble by adding a graphical representation of the uncertainty information. This has been demonstrated for example with static figures in chapter 12 of the last IPCC report (AR5) using different so-called stippling and hatching techniques. In this work, we focus on animated visualizations of multi-model ensemble climate projections carried out within CMIP5 as a way of communicating climate change results to the scientific community as well as to the public. We take a closer look at measures of robustness or uncertainty used in recent publications suitable for animated visualizations. Specifically, we use the ESMValTool [1] to process and prepare the CMIP5 multi-model data in combination with standard visualization tools such as NCL and the commercial 3D visualization software Avizo to create the animations. We compare different visualization techniques such as height fields or shading with transparency for creating animated visualization of ensemble mean changes in temperature and precipitation including corresponding robustness measures. [1] Eyring, V

  8. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.; hide

    2012-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with

  9. Success probability orientated optimization model for resource allocation of the technological innovation multi-project system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Weixu Dai; Weiwei Wu; Bo Yu; Yunhao Zhu

    2016-01-01

    A success probability orientated optimization model for resource al ocation of the technological innovation multi-project system is studied. Based on the definition of the technological in-novation multi-project system, the leveling optimization of cost and success probability is set as the objective of resource al ocation. The cost function and the probability function of the optimization model are constructed. Then the objective function of the model is constructed and the solving process is explained. The model is applied to the resource al ocation of an enterprise’s technological innovation multi-project system. The results show that the pro-posed model is more effective in rational resource al ocation, and is more applicable in maximizing the utility of the technological innovation multi-project system.

  10. A River Model Intercomparison Project in Preparation for SWOT

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, C. H.; Andreadis, K.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Beighley, E.; Boone, A. A.; Yamazaki, D.; Paiva, R. C. D.; Fleischmann, A. S.; Collischonn, W.; Fisher, C. K.; Kim, H.; Biancamaria, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is currently scheduled to launch at the beginning of next decade. SWOT is expected to retrieve unprecedented measurements of water extent, elevation, and slope in the largest terrestrial water bodies. Such potential transformative information motivates the investigation of our ability to ingest the associated data into continental-scale models of terrestrial hydrology. In preparation for the expected SWOT observations, an inter-comparison of continental-scale river models is being performed. This comparison experiment focuses on four of the world's largest river basins: the Amazon, the Mississippi, the Niger, and the Saint-Lawrence. This ongoing project focuses on two main research questions: 1) How can we best prepare for the expected SWOT continental to global measurements before SWOT even flies?, and 2) What is the added value of including SWOT terrestrial measurements into global hydro models for enhancing our understanding of the terrestrial water cycle and the climate system? We present here the results of the second year of this project which now includes simulations from six numerical models of rivers over the Mississippi and sheds light on the implications of various modeling choices on simulation quality as well as on the potential impact of SWOT observations.

  11. Relationship between soil erodibility and modeled infiltration rate in different soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guoqiang; Fang, Qingqing; Wu, Binbin; Yang, Huicai; Xu, Zongxue

    2015-09-01

    The relationship between soil erodibility, which is hard to measure, and modeled infiltration rate were rarely researched. Here, the soil erodibility factors (K and Ke in the USLE, Ki and K1 in the WEPP) were calculated and the infiltration rates were modeled based on the designed laboratory simulation experiments and proposed infiltration model, in order to build their relationship. The impacts of compost amendment on the soil erosion characteristics and relationship were also studied. Two contrasting agricultural soils (bare and cultivated fluvo-aquic soils) were used, and different poultry compost contents (control, low and high) were applied to both soils. The results indicated that the runoff rate, sediment yield rate and soil erodibility of the bare soil treatments were generally higher than those of the corresponding cultivated soil treatments. The application of composts generally decreased sediment yield and soil erodibility but did not always decrease runoff. The comparison of measured and modeled infiltration rates indicated that the model represented the infiltration processes well with an N-S coefficient of 0.84 for overall treatments. Significant negative logarithmic correlations have been found between final infiltration rate (FIR) and the four soil erodibility factors, and the relationship between USLE-K and FIR demonstrated the best correlation. The application of poultry composts would not influence the logarithmic relationship between FIR and soil erodibility. Our study provided a useful tool to estimate soil erodibility.

  12. Projections of Rainfall and Temperature from CMIP5 Models over BIMSTEC Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Ragi, A. R.

    2014-12-01

    Rainfall and surface temperature are the most important climatic variables in the context of climate change. Thus, these variables simulated from fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been compared against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observed data and projected for the twenty first century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results for the seven countries under Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand have been examined. Six CMIP5 models namely GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES have been chosen for this study. The study period has been considered is from 1861 to 2100. From this period, initial 145 years i.e. 1861 to 2005 is reference or historical period and the later 95 years i.e. 2005 to 2100 is projected period. The climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the reference period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall and temperature has been compared with CRU over the reference period 1901 to 2005. Comparison reveals that most of the models are able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over most of the regions of BIMSTEC countries. Therefore these model data can be used to study the future changes in the 21st Century. Four out six models shows that the rainfall over Central and North India, Thailand and eastern part of Myanmar shows decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka shows an increasing trend in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In case of temperature, all of the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. Annual cycles of rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand

  13. A decision model for E and P petroleum projects using real options and preference theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, Gabriel A.C. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Lab. de Analise Geoconomica (LAGE); Suslick, Saul B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo; Nepomuceno Filho, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The results from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) are limited as a tool for decision-making in the petroleum industry because they do not properly take into account three important features of the modern investments: uncertainty, irreversibility, timing and corporation's risk-aversion. Recent developments in real options and preference theories have allowed decision-makers to employ these two approaches separately in the process of valuation and decision-making of risky projects. This paper presents a model for valuation and decision-making integrating discounted cash flow, real options and reference theory. This model seems to be suitable to answer to the following questions: what is the current value of an oil project? what is the optimal working interest in this project venture?; what is criteria to select projects considering investment irreversibility, uncertainty and timing to implement decisions? This model is applied to valuation and decision-making of a project to produce oil from a deep-water reservoir and its results are compared to those of the traditional approach. NPV model suggest that, as the project value is above its investment cost, the corporation should invest immediately and take 100% working interest in the project. Contrarily, the integrated model suggest the corporation should invest as long as project current value is as large as 1.85 times investment cost and should take only 44.38% working interest, whereas partners fund and acquire the remaining 55,62% of the project. In general, results indicate that NPV tend to pay more attention on return and does not account properly for risk. Then, as the uncertainty or volatile of strategic variables increases, the two models give more divergent results. (author)

  14. A Model of Successful School Leadership from the International Successful School Principalship Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Gurr

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The International Successful School Principalship Project (ISSPP has been actively conducting research about the work of successful principals since 2001. Findings from four project books and eight models derived from this project are synthesised into a model of successful school leadership. Building on Gurr, Drysdale and Mulford’s earlier model, the work of school leaders is described as engaging within the school context to influence student and school outcomes through interventions in teaching and learning, school capacity building, and the wider context. The qualities a leader brings to their role, a portfolio approach to using leadership ideas, constructing networks, collaborations and partnerships, and utilising accountability and evaluation for evidence-informed improvement, are important additional elements. The model is applicable to all in leadership roles in schools.

  15. Development of regional scale soil erosion and sediment transport model; its calibration and validations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehman, M.H.; Akhtar, M.N.

    2005-01-01

    Despite of the fact that many soil erosion models have been developed in the past more than 5 decades including empirical based models like USLE and RUSLE and many process based soil erosion and sediment transport models like WEPP, EUROSEM and SHETRAN, the application of these models to regional scales remained questionable. To address the problem, a process-based soil erosion and sediment transport model has been developed to estimate the soil erosion, deposition, transport and sediment yield at regional scale. The soil erosion processes are modeled as the detachment of soil by the raindrop impact over the entire grid and detachment of soil due to overland flow only within the equivalent channels, whereas sediment is routed to the forward grid considering the transport capacity of the flow. The loss of heterogeneity in the spatial information of the topography due to slope averaging effect is reproduced by adapting a Fractal analysis approach. The model has been calibrated for Nan river basin (N.13A) and validated to the Yom river basin (Y.6) and Nam Mae Klang river basin (P.24A) of Thailand, simulated results show good agreements with the observed sediment discharge data. The developed model with few new components can also be applied for predicting the sediment discharges of the river Indus. (author)

  16. Integration of models for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.

    1991-01-01

    The objective of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project is to estimate the radiation dose that individuals could have received as a result of emissions from nuclear operations at Hanford since 1944. The objective of phase 1 of the project was to demonstrate through calculations that adequate models and support data exist or could be developed to allow realistic estimations of doses to individuals from releases of radionuclides to the environment that occurred as long as 45 years ago. Much of the data used in phase 1 was preliminary; therefore, the doses calculated must be considered preliminary approximations. This paper describes the integration of various models that was implemented for initial computer calculations. Models were required for estimating the quantity of radioactive material released, for evaluating its transport through the environment, for estimating human exposure, and for evaluating resultant doses

  17. Multi-scale, multi-model assessment of projected land allocation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernon, C. R.; Huang, M.; Chen, M.; Calvin, K. V.; Le Page, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

    2017-12-01

    Effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on climate are generally classified into two scale-dependent processes: biophysical and biogeochemical. An extensive amount of research has been conducted related to the impact of each process under alternative climate change futures. However, these studies are generally focused on the impacts of a single process and fail to bridge the gap between sector-driven scale dependencies and any associated dynamics. Studies have been conducted to better understand the relationship of these processes but their respective scale has not adequately captured overall interdependencies between land surface changes and changes in other human-earth systems (e.g., energy, water, economic, etc.). There has also been considerable uncertainty surrounding land use land cover downscaling approaches due to scale dependencies. Demeter, a land use land cover downscaling and change detection model, was created to address this science gap. Demeter is an open-source model written in Python that downscales zonal land allocation projections to the gridded resolution of a user-selected spatial base layer (e.g., MODIS, NLCD, EIA CCI, etc.). Demeter was designed to be fully extensible to allow for module inheritance and replacement for custom research needs, such as flexible IO design to facilitate the coupling of Earth system models (e.g., the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM)) to integrated assessment models (e.g., the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)). In this study, we first assessed the sensitivity of downscaled LULCC scenarios at multiple resolutions from Demeter to its parameters by comparing them to historical LULC change data. "Optimal" values of key parameters for each region were identified and used to downscale GCAM-based future scenarios consistent with those in the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). Demeter-downscaled land use scenarios were then compared to the

  18. Multimode model for projective photon-counting measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tualle-Brouri, Rosa; Ourjoumtsev, Alexei; Dantan, Aurelien; Grangier, Philippe; Wubs, Martijn; Soerensen, Anders S.

    2009-01-01

    We present a general model to account for the multimode nature of the quantum electromagnetic field in projective photon-counting measurements. We focus on photon-subtraction experiments, where non-Gaussian states are produced conditionally. These are useful states for continuous-variable quantum-information processing. We present a general method called mode reduction that reduces the multimode model to an effective two-mode problem. We apply this method to a multimode model describing broadband parametric down-conversion, thereby improving the analysis of existing experimental results. The main improvement is that spatial and frequency filters before the photon detector are taken into account explicitly. We find excellent agreement with previously published experimental results, using fewer free parameters than before, and discuss the implications of our analysis for the optimized production of states with negative Wigner functions.

  19. Reducing failures rate within the project documentation using Building Information Modelling, especially Level of Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prušková Kristýna

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Paper´s focus is on differences between traditional modelling in 2D software and modelling within the BIM technology. Research uncovers failures connected to the traditional way of designing and construction of project documentation. There are revealed and shown mismatches within the project documentation. Solution within the Building information modelling Technology is outlined. As a reference, there is used experience with design of specific building in both ways of construction of project documentation: in the way of traditional modelling and in the way when using BIM technology, especially using Level of Development. Output of this paper is pointing to benefits of using advanced technology in building design, thus Building Information Modelling, especially Level of Development, which leads to reducing failures rate within the project documentation.

  20. Understanding and managing three-dimensional/four-dimensional model implementations at the project team level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, Timo; Levitt, R.

    2010-01-01

    This paper introduces an extant, theoretical, social-psychological model that explains the sense-making processes of project managers confronted with a new technology to improve our understanding of project-based innovation processes. The model represents the interlinked processes through which

  1. A model for personal life project design on the basis of vocational guidance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isaac Geovanni Mendoza Cedeño

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article is intended to propose a model for developing vocational education personal life projects and its corresponding theoretical foundations. Therefore, the argument is undertaken on the model developed from philosophical views, epistemological, pedagogical, sociological, and psychological axiological, and a model is provided as a basis for the development of vocational education strategy for personal life project development contributing effectively to the development of responsible autonomy and high school students.

  2. Atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramsdell, J.V.

    1991-07-01

    Radiation doses that may have resulted from operations at the Hanford Site are being estimated in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project. One of the project subtasks, atmospheric transport, is responsible for estimating the transport, diffusion and deposition of radionuclides released to the atmosphere. This report discusses modeling transport and diffusion in the atmospheric pathway. It is divided into three major sections. The first section of the report presents the atmospheric modeling approach selected following discussion with the Technical Steering Panel that directs the HEDR Project. In addition, the section discusses the selection of the MESOI/MESORAD suite of atmospheric dispersion models that form the basis for initial calculations and future model development. The second section of the report describes alternative modeling approaches that were considered. Emphasis is placed on the family of plume and puff models that are based on Gaussian solution to the diffusion equations. The final portion of the section describes the performance of various models. The third section of the report discusses factors that bear on the selection of an atmospheric transport modeling approach for HEDR. These factors, which include the physical setting of the Hanford Site and the available meteorological data, serve as constraints on model selection. Five appendices are included in the report. 39 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  3. Projected shell model study of neutron- deficient 122Ce

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Projected shell model; band diagram; yrast energies; electromagnetic quan- ... signed to 122Ce by detecting γ-rays in coincidence with evaporated charged particles .... 0.75 from the free nucleon values to account for the core-polarization and ...

  4. Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; De Smedt, Florimond; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

    2014-11-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of hydrological model structure and calibration on climate change impact results in hydrology. The uncertainty in the hydrological impact results is assessed by the relative change in runoff volumes and peak and low flow extremes from historical and future climate conditions. The effect of the hydrological model structure is examined through the use of five hydrological models with different spatial resolutions and process descriptions. These were applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium. The models vary from the lumped conceptual NAM, PDM and VHM models over the intermediate detailed and distributed WetSpa model to the fully distributed MIKE SHE model. The latter model accounts for the 3D groundwater processes and interacts bi-directionally with a full hydrodynamic MIKE 11 river model. After careful and manual calibration of these models, accounting for the accuracy of the peak and low flow extremes and runoff subflows, and the changes in these extremes for changing rainfall conditions, the five models respond in a similar way to the climate scenarios over Belgium. Future projections on peak flows are highly uncertain with expected increases as well as decreases depending on the climate scenario. The projections on future low flows are more uniform; low flows decrease (up to 60%) for all models and for all climate scenarios. However, the uncertainties in the impact projections are high, mainly in the dry season. With respect to the model structural uncertainty, the PDM model simulates significantly higher runoff peak flows under future wet scenarios, which is explained by its specific model structure. For the low flow extremes, the MIKE SHE model projects significantly lower low flows in dry scenario conditions in comparison to the other models, probably due to its large difference in process descriptions for the groundwater component, the groundwater-river interactions. The effect of the model

  5. Developing a stochastic traffic volume prediction model for public-private partnership projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phong, Nguyen Thanh; Likhitruangsilp, Veerasak; Onishi, Masamitsu

    2017-11-01

    Transportation projects require an enormous amount of capital investment resulting from their tremendous size, complexity, and risk. Due to the limitation of public finances, the private sector is invited to participate in transportation project development. The private sector can entirely or partially invest in transportation projects in the form of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) scheme, which has been an attractive option for several developing countries, including Vietnam. There are many factors affecting the success of PPP projects. The accurate prediction of traffic volume is considered one of the key success factors of PPP transportation projects. However, only few research works investigated how to predict traffic volume over a long period of time. Moreover, conventional traffic volume forecasting methods are usually based on deterministic models which predict a single value of traffic volume but do not consider risk and uncertainty. This knowledge gap makes it difficult for concessionaires to estimate PPP transportation project revenues accurately. The objective of this paper is to develop a probabilistic traffic volume prediction model. First, traffic volumes were estimated following the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process. Monte Carlo technique is then applied to simulate different scenarios. The results show that this stochastic approach can systematically analyze variations in the traffic volume and yield more reliable estimates for PPP projects.

  6. Progress report for project modeling Arctic barrier island-lagoon system response to projected Arctic warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li H.; Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Storlazzi, Curt; B.M. Jones,

    2012-01-01

    Changes in Arctic coastal ecosystems in response to global warming may be some of the most severe on the planet. A better understanding and analysis of the rates at which these changes are expected to occur over the coming decades is crucial in order to delineate high-priority areas that are likely to be affected by climate changes. In this study we investigate the likelihood of changes to habitat-supporting barrier island – lagoon systems in response to projected changes in atmospheric and oceanographic forcing associated with Arctic warming. To better understand the relative importance of processes responsible for the current and future coastal landscape, key parameters related to increasing arctic temperatures are investigated and used to establish boundary conditions for models that simulate barrier island migration and inundation of deltaic deposits and low-lying tundra. The modeling effort investigates the dominance and relative importance of physical processes shaping the modern Arctic coastline as well as decadal responses due to projected conditions out to the year 2100.

  7. A Multi-Objective Trade-Off Model in Sustainable Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangdong Wu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Based on the consideration of the relative importance of sustainability-related objectives and the inherent nature of sustainable construction projects, this study proposes that the contractor can balance the levels of efforts and resources used to improve the overall project sustainability. A multi-objective trade-off model using game theory was established and verified through simulation and numerical example under a moral hazard situation. Results indicate that effort levels of the contractor on sustainability-related objectives are positively related to the outcome coefficient while negatively to the coefficients of effort cost of the relevant objectives. High levels of the relative importance of sustainability-related objectives contribute to high levels of effort of the contractor. With the variation in effort levels and the coefficient of benefit allocation, the project net benefit increases before declining. The function of project benefit has a marked peak value, with an inverted “U” shape. An equilibrium always exists as for the given relative importance and coefficients of the effort costs of sustainability-related objectives. Under this condition, the owner may offer the contractor a less intense incentive and motivate the contractor reasonably arranging input resources. The coefficient of benefit allocation is affected by the contractor characteristic factors and the project characteristic factors. The owner should balance these two types of factors and select the most appropriate incentive mechanism to improve the project benefit. Meanwhile, the contractor can balance the relative importance of the objectives and arrange the appropriate levels of effort and resources to achieve a sustainability-related objective. Very few studies have emphasized the effects of the relative importance of sustainability-related objectives on the benefits of sustainable construction projects. This study therefore builds a multi-objective trade

  8. Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, M.; Boley, L.; Keenan, L.; Kerstman, E.; Shah, R.; Young, M.; Saile, L.; Garcia, Y.; Meyers, J.; Reyes, D.

    2015-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of

  9. Modeling geo-homopholy in online social networks for population distribution projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanxing Zhang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – Projecting the population distribution in geographical regions is important for many applications such as launching marketing campaigns or enhancing the public safety in certain densely populated areas. Conventional studies require the collection of people’s trajectory data through offline means, which is limited in terms of cost and data availability. The wide use of online social network (OSN apps over smartphones has provided the opportunities of devising a lightweight approach of conducting the study using the online data of smartphone apps. This paper aims to reveal the relationship between the online social networks and the offline communities, as well as to project the population distribution by modeling geo-homophily in the online social networks. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, the authors propose the concept of geo-homophily in OSNs to determine how much the data of an OSN can help project the population distribution in a given division of geographical regions. Specifically, the authors establish a three-layered theoretic framework that first maps the online message diffusion among friends in the OSN to the offline population distribution over a given division of regions via a Dirichlet process and then projects the floating population across the regions. Findings – By experiments over large-scale OSN data sets, the authors show that the proposed prediction models have a high prediction accuracy in characterizing the process of how the population distribution forms and how the floating population changes over time. Originality/value – This paper tries to project population distribution by modeling geo-homophily in OSNs.

  10. Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme rainfall projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    Climate Models (RCMs) and General Circulation Models (GCMs). These multi-model ensembles provide the information needed to estimate probabilistic climate change projections. Several probabilistic methods have been suggested. One common assumption in most of these methods is that the climate models...... are independent. The effects of this assumption on the uncertainty quantification of extreme rainfall projections are addressed in this study. First, the interdependency of the 95% quantile of wet days in the ENSEMBLES RCMs is estimated. For this statistic and the region studied, the RCMs cannot be assumed...

  11. Identification of linear error-models with projected dynamical systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krejčí, Pavel; Kuhnen, K.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 1 (2004), s. 59-91 ISSN 1387-3954 Keywords : identification * error models * projected dynamical systems Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.292, year: 2004 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a713682517

  12. Thresholding projection estimators in functional linear models

    OpenAIRE

    Cardot, Hervé; Johannes, Jan

    2010-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimating the regression function in functional linear regression models by proposing a new type of projection estimators which combine dimension reduction and thresholding. The introduction of a threshold rule allows to get consistency under broad assumptions as well as minimax rates of convergence under additional regularity hypotheses. We also consider the particular case of Sobolev spaces generated by the trigonometric basis which permits to get easily mean squ...

  13. Food for thought: Overconfidence in model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith; Neuheimer, Anna; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2013-01-01

    There is considerable public and political interest in the state of marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent projections has been called into question. New information about declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and management failure is frequent...... be reliable and uncertainties arising from models and data shortcomings must be presented fully and transparently. Scientific journals play an important role and should require more detailed analysis and presentation of uncertainties....

  14. A framework for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jin; Li, Zheng; Li, Shuliang; Zhang, Yanyan

    2015-07-01

    There is still a lack of effective paradigms and tools for analysing and discovering the contents and relationships of project knowledge contexts in the field of project management. In this paper, a new framework for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps under big data environments is proposed and developed. The conceptual paradigm, theoretical underpinning, extended topic model, and illustration examples of the ontology model for project knowledge maps are presented, with further research work envisaged.

  15. Project W-320 thermal hydraulic model benchmarking and baselining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathyanarayana, K.

    1998-01-01

    Project W-320 will be retrieving waste from Tank 241-C-106 and transferring the waste to Tank 241-AY-102. Waste in both tanks must be maintained below applicable thermal limits during and following the waste transfer. Thermal hydraulic process control models will be used for process control of the thermal limits. This report documents the process control models and presents a benchmarking of the models with data from Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102. Revision 1 of this report will provide a baselining of the models in preparation for the initiation of sluicing

  16. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Overview and Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Hatfield, J.; Jones, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.

    2012-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is an international effort to assess the state of global agricultural modeling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector. AgMIP connects the climate science, crop modeling, and agricultural economic modeling communities to generate probabilistic projections of current and future climate impacts. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. This presentation will describe the general approach of AgMIP and highlight its findings and activities. AgMIP crop model intercomparisons have been established for wheat (27 models participating), maize (25 models), and rice (15+ models), and are being established for sugarcane, soybean, sorghum/millet, and peanut. In coordination with these pilots, methodologies to utilize weather generators and downscaled climate simulations for agricultural applications are under development. An AgMIP global agricultural economics model intercomparison with participation of 11 international groups is ongoing, and a number of global biophysical models are currently being evaluated for future climate impacts on agricultural lands both as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) and for contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). AgMIP is also organizing regional research efforts, and has already held workshops in South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Europe, and North America. Outcomes from these meetings have informed AgMIP activities, and 10 research teams from Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have been selected for project funding. Additional activities are planned for Australia and East Asia. As the AgMIP research community continues to work towards its goals, three key cross-cutting scientific challenges have emerged and are being

  17. Causes of model dry and warm bias over central U.S. and impact on climate projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yanluan; Dong, Wenhao; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Yuanyu; Xue, Wei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong

    2017-10-12

    Climate models show a conspicuous summer warm and dry bias over the central United States. Using results from 19 climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we report a persistent dependence of warm bias on dry bias with the precipitation deficit leading the warm bias over this region. The precipitation deficit is associated with the widespread failure of models in capturing strong rainfall events in summer over the central U.S. A robust linear relationship between the projected warming and the present-day warm bias enables us to empirically correct future temperature projections. By the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario, the corrections substantially narrow the intermodel spread of the projections and reduce the projected temperature by 2.5 K, resulting mainly from the removal of the warm bias. Instead of a sharp decrease, after this correction the projected precipitation is nearly neutral for all scenarios.Climate models repeatedly show a warm and dry bias over the central United States, but the origin of this bias remains unclear. Here the authors associate this bias to precipitation deficits in models and after applying a correction, projected precipitation in this region shows no significant changes.

  18. Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) Contribution to CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present, and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship with other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice-sheetclimate models as well as standalone ice-sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice-sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change.

  19. Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowicki, Sophie M.J.; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

    2018-01-01

    Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship to other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice sheet – climate models as well as standalone ice sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change. PMID:29697697

  20. Use of System Dynamics Modeling in Medical Education and Research Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozikov, Jadranka; Relic, Danko; Dezelic, Gjuro

    2018-01-01

    The paper reviews experiences and accomplishments in application of system dynamics modeling in education, training and research projects at the Andrija Stampar School of Public Health, a branch of the Zagreb University School of Medicine, Croatia. A number of simulation models developed over the past 40 years are briefly described with regard to real problems concerned, objectives and modeling methods and techniques used. Many of them have been developed as the individual students' projects as a part of their graduation, MSc or PhD theses and subsequently published in journals or conference proceedings. Some of them were later used in teaching and simulation training. System dynamics modeling proved to be not only powerful method for research and decision making but also a useful tool in medical and nursing education enabling better understanding of dynamic systems' behavior.

  1. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database (Version 1.3)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.L.

    1991-11-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). The SWPM system provides a modeling and analysis environment that supports decisions in the process of evaluating various solid waste management alternatives. This document, one of a series describing the SWPM system, contains detailed information regarding the software and data structures utilized in developing the SWPM Version 1.3 Database. This document is intended for use by experienced database specialists and supports database maintenance, utility development, and database enhancement

  2. Sustainable model for financial viability of decentralized biomass gasifier based power projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palit, D.; Malhotra, R.; Kumar, Atul

    2011-01-01

    This paper made a modest attempt for designing a sustainable model for financial viability of biomass gasifier power projects for enhancing electricity access in India and other developing countries. For long term sustainability of distributed generation projects in remote rural areas, viability

  3. PENGARUH MODEL PROJECT BASED LEARNING TERHADAP KEMAMPUAN BERPIKIR KREATIF MATEMATIKA SISWA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hesti Noviyana

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: The problems in this study relate to the learning model of Project Based Learning and students' creative thinking ability in mathematics. The purpose of the research to know the influence of the model of Project Based Learning on the ability to think creatively mathematics students VIII grade even semester SMP Negeri 3 Bandar Lampung lesson 2016/2017 . The research used experimental method with the population that is all students of class VIII with the amount of 347, while the sample is taken 2 class that is class VIII A as experiment class which amounted to 31, class VIII C as control class which amounted 30. The sample was taken using Cluster Random Sampling technique. To know the ability of creative thinking mathematics students authors perform tests in the form of essays as many as 5 questions that have been tested the validity and reliability. Hypothesis testing in this study using t test. From the results of hypothesis testing using t-test obtained t value = 14.27. From the distribution table t at the significant level of 5% is known t = 2.00 means t> t, so it can be concluded "There is Influence of Model Based Project Based on the Ability of Creative Thinking Mathematics Students".Keywords: Project Based Learning, creative thinking ability of mathematics

  4. Models for assessment of public-private partnership projects in subsurface management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    И. С. Калгина

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Aims and goals of this paper. The article is devoted to analysis of issues related to development of public-private partnership (PPP projects in mineral resources sector of Russia. The special emphasis is given to the most common PPP model in the field of industrial infrastructure construction using the Investment Fund of RF. We offer specific tools to be used with Russian models for assessment of PPP projects and forecasting of its efficiency for its participants. This model allows evaluating the results of the whole deposit development process, constructing graphs of all types of expenditures and revenues (by years, and having rent assessment of deposit NPV (net present value and internal rent rate (IRR.Methods and results. The iteration process at each step enables assessment of budget revenue forecast, living standards indexes, ecological parameters and performance indicators, as well as a certain variant of PPP project implementation for investors (direct government expenses on implementation of infrastructure objects and environmental activities, tax benefits. We have a set of tools for supporting the management decision making process in developing efficient PPP mechanism, balancing long-term government interests, private sector and local people interests arising during socio-economic development of mineral resources area. This method using the suggested tools for analyzing efficiency of a specific partnership mechanism is shown on the examples of projects of developing different deposits in Transbaikal region.

  5. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario......-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project. The presentation of RSF is demonstrated by using an appraisal case concerning a new airfield in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk....

  6. Process, cost modeling and simulations for integrated project development of biomass for fuel and protein

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pannir Selvam, P.V.; Wolff, D.M.B.; Souza Melo, H.N.

    1998-01-01

    The construction of the models for biomass project development are described. These models, first constructed using QPRO electronic spread sheet for Windows, are now being developed with the aid of visual and object oriented program as tools using DELPHI V.1 for windows and process simulator SUPERPRO, V.2.7 Intelligent Inc. These models render the process development problems with economic objectives to be solved very rapidly. The preliminary analysis of cost and investments of biomass utilisation projects which are included for this study are: steam, ammonia, carbon dioxide and alkali pretreatment process, methane gas production using anaerobic digestion process, aerobic composting, ethanol fermentation and distillation, effluent treatments using high rate algae production as well as cogeneration of energy for drying. The main project under developments are the biomass valuation projects with the elephant (Napier) grass, sugar cane bagasse and microalgae, using models for mass balance, equipment and production cost. The sensibility analyses are carried out to account for stochastic variation of the process yield, production volume, price variations, using Monte Carlo method. These models allow the identification of economical and scale up problems of the technology. The results obtained with few preliminary project development with few case studies are reported for integrated project development for fuel and protein using process and cost simulation models. (author)

  7. Models of Financing and Available Financial Resources for Transport Infrastructure Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Pokorná

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available A typical feature of transport infrastructure projects is that they are expensive and take a long time to construct. Transport infrastructure financing has traditionally lain in the public domain. A tightening of many countries' budgets in recent times has led to an exploration of alternative resources for financing transport infrastructures. A variety of models and methods can be used in transport infrastructure project financing. The selection of the appropriate model should be done taking into account not only financial resources but also the distribution of construction and operating risks and the contractual relations between the stakeholders.

  8. FUNCTIONAL MODEL OF THE MATERIAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR PROJECTS OF THE CREATION OF NEW TECHNIQUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yu. Danshyna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to problem of material management arising in the implementation of projects for the development and creation (modernization of the new techniques. The uniqueness of the projects, their limit on the cost and time does not allow the use of traditional approaches to resource management. Such projects are often implemented in the development of companies; where it is not possible to abandon the traditional operating methods of management. The aim of the article is a formalization of the process of material management of projects, a description of its information flows for integrate into the project management practices and for improve the efficiency of material management. For the systematization of information arising from the material resources management, invited the set-theoretic representation of the management process. According with the requirements of project management standards were described the sets and defined rules of their transformation. Specification of the set-theoretic representation helped to establish the area and limits of the modelling process. Further decomposition process became the basis of the functional model, constructed in accordance with the methodology IDEF 0. A graphical representation of the model allows you to visualize the process at different levels of detail. For specification of issues related to the organization and promotion of material flow, were developed functional models of sub-processes and were described the identified data-flows. For the harmonization of process and project approaches formulated conditions for evaluating the efficiency of material management. The developed models can be the basis for designing the structure of companies, for regulation of their project activities, as well as for establishing an information system of management resources of projects.

  9. Revenue Risk Modelling and Assessment on BOT Highway Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novianti, T.; Setyawan, H. Y.

    2018-01-01

    The infrastructure project which is considered as a public-private partnership approach under BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) arrangement, such as a highway, is risky. Therefore, assessment on risk factors is essential as the project have a concession period and is influenced by macroeconomic factors and consensus period. In this study, pre-construction risks of a highway were examined by using a Delphi method to create a space for offline expert discussions; a fault tree analysis to map intuition of experts and to create a model from the underlying risk events; a fuzzy logic to interpret the linguistic data of risk models. The loss of revenue for risk tariff, traffic volume, force majeure, and income were then measured. The results showed that the loss of revenue caused by the risk tariff was 10.5% of the normal total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the risk of traffic volume was 21.0% of total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the force majeure was 12.2% of the normal income. The loss of income caused by the non-revenue events was 6.9% of the normal revenue. It was also found that the volume of traffic was the major risk of a highway project because it related to customer preferences.

  10. Sustainable model for financial viability of decentralized biomass gasifier based power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palit, Debajit; Malhotra, Ramit; Kumar, Atul

    2011-01-01

    This paper made a modest attempt for designing a sustainable model for financial viability of biomass gasifier power projects for enhancing electricity access in India and other developing countries. For long term sustainability of distributed generation projects in remote rural areas, viability from both project implementing agency (PIA) and the end-users need to be ensured. The minimum required prices of electricity from both PIA and end-user perspective have been estimated. While for PIA the cost recovery is the key for viability, the affordability to pay the electricity cost is crucial for the end users. Analysis carried out in this paper on the basis of data obtained from operational projects implemented in India reveal that it is essential to operate the system at a higher capacity utilization factor. While this can be achieved though creating convergence with locally relevant economic activity, it is also observed that micro-enterprises cannot pay beyond a certain price of electricity to keep it sustainable. This paper sets forth a case for developing a regulatory mechanism to extend the tariff fixation for the projects and providing cross-subsidies to ensure long term sustainability of off-grid project. - Highlights: → We design sustainable financial model for viability of biomass gasifier projects. → Analysis based on field data obtained from operational projects in India. Estimated electricity pricing from both implementing agency and end-users perspective. → A regulatory mechanism for tariff fixation and cross subsidization is recommended.

  11. A modification of projective spacetime by finite self-interaction models of virtual leptons and quarks and the electroweak GWS standard model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scheurich, H.

    1986-01-01

    From the projective Dirac equation in a six-dimensional Kleinian space R(3, 3) are derived finite-rotation-group models as self-interaction models of virtual leptons and quarks. The quaternion group underlying them is considered as a substructure group of projective spacetime. A finite hyperspherical carrier of the self-interaction models is embedded into projective spacetime by means of the Planck length L 0 = (hG/c 3 )/sup 1/2/ as a physical unit length. The corresponding modification of metrics in the Planck domain becomes apparent to be equivalent to the role of the Higgs field in the electroweak GWS standard model. (author)

  12. Integrated process-based hydrologic and ephemeral gully modeling for better assessment of soil erosion in small watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheshukov, A. Y.; Karimov, V. R.

    2017-12-01

    Excessive soil erosion in agriculturally dominated watersheds causes degradation of arable land and affects agricultural productivity. Structural and soil-quality best management practices can be beneficial in reducing sheet and rill erosion, however, larger rills, ephemeral gullies, and concentrated flow channels still remain to be significant sources of sediment. A better understanding of channelized soil erosion, underlying physical processes, and ways to mitigate the problem is needed to develop innovative approaches for evaluation of soil losses from various sediment sources. The goal of this study was to develop a novel integrated process-based catchment-scale model for sheet, rill, and ephemeral gully erosion and assess soil erosion mitigation practices. Geospatially, a catchment was divided into ephemeral channels and contributing hillslopes. Surface runoff hydrograph and sheet-rill erosion rates from contributing hillslopes were calculated based on the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. For ephemeral channels, a dynamic ephemeral gully erosion model was developed. Each channel was divided into segments, and channel flow was routed according to the kinematic wave equation. Reshaping of the channel profile in each segment (sediment deposition, soil detachment) was simulated at each time-step according to acting shear stress distribution along the channel boundary and excess shear stress equation. The approach assumed physically-consistent channel shape reconfiguration representing channel walls failure and deposition in the bottom of the channel. Soil erodibility and critical shear stress parameters were dynamically adjusted due to seepage/drainage forces based on computed infiltration gradients. The model was validated on the data obtained from the field study by Karimov et al. (2014) yielding agreement with NSE coefficient of 0.72. The developed model allowed to compute ephemeral gully erosion while accounting for antecedent soil moisture

  13. Compilation Of An Econometric Human Resource Efficiency Model For Project Management Best Practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. van Zyl

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to introduce a human resource efficiency model in order to rank the most important human resource driving forces for project management best practices. The results of the model will demonstrate how the human resource component of project management acts as the primary function to enhance organizational performance, codified through improved logical end-state programmes, work ethics and process contributions. Given the hypothesis that project management best practices involve significant human resource and organizational changes, one would reasonably expect this process to influence and resonate throughout all the dimensions of an organisation.

  14. Project-oriented management of industrial production of fire and rescue equipment by means of geometric modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Rak, Iu; Bondarenko, V.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: The objective of the research is to develop a method based on the geometric modelling for the purpose of improving the effectiveness of fire protection project management in industrial production of fire protection technology systems. Methods: The theoretical inheritance mode of effective management in project-organizational structure of fire protection and specialized technical equipment production using geometric modelling. Results: Mathematical and geometric models of project ma...

  15. Results of the ITER toroidal field model coil project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salpietro, E.; Maix, R.

    2001-01-01

    In the scope of the ITER EDA one of the seven largest projects was devoted to the development, manufacture and testing of a Toroidal Field Model Coil (TFMC). The industry consortium AGAN manufactured the TFMC based on on a conceptual design developed by the ITER EDA EU Home Team. The TFMC was completed and assembled in the test facility TOSKA of the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe in the first half of 2001. The first testing phase started in June 2001 and lasted till October 2001. The first results have shown that the main goals of the project have been achieved

  16. Governance model for integrating organizational project management (OPM with corporate practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amr Mossalam

    2017-12-01

    Having proposed the model, it needed validation, which was done through implementing the model in organizations through automation projects. The implementation resulted in some changes in the model to achieve the required levels of accountability, responsibility, and transparency. These changes were incorporated into the model and were reflected in its modified version. Finally, the paper highlighted the recommended improvements that would enhance the future implementation of the model.

  17. Decomposing the uncertainty in climate impact projections of Dynamic Vegetation Models: a test with the forest models LANDCLIM and FORCLIM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cailleret, Maxime; Snell, Rebecca; von Waldow, Harald; Kotlarski, Sven; Bugmann, Harald

    2015-04-01

    Different levels of uncertainty should be considered in climate impact projections by Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs), particularly when it comes to managing climate risks. Such information is useful to detect the key processes and uncertainties in the climate model - impact model chain and may be used to support recommendations for future improvements in the simulation of both climate and biological systems. In addition, determining which uncertainty source is dominant is an important aspect to recognize the limitations of climate impact projections by a multi-model ensemble mean approach. However, to date, few studies have clarified how each uncertainty source (baseline climate data, greenhouse gas emission scenario, climate model, and DVM) affects the projection of ecosystem properties. Focusing on one greenhouse gas emission scenario, we assessed the uncertainty in the projections of a forest landscape model (LANDCLIM) and a stand-scale forest gap model (FORCLIM) that is caused by linking climate data with an impact model. LANDCLIM was used to assess the uncertainty in future landscape properties of the Visp valley in Switzerland that is due to (i) the use of different 'baseline' climate data (gridded data vs. data from weather stations), and (ii) differences in climate projections among 10 GCM-RCM chains. This latter point was also considered for the projections of future forest properties by FORCLIM at several sites along an environmental gradient in Switzerland (14 GCM-RCM chains), for which we also quantified the uncertainty caused by (iii) the model chain specific statistical properties of the climate time-series, and (iv) the stochasticity of the demographic processes included in the model, e.g., the annual number of saplings that establish, or tree mortality. Using methods of variance decomposition analysis, we found that (i) The use of different baseline climate data strongly impacts the prediction of forest properties at the lowest and highest, but

  18. MARKET ENTRY STRATEGIES TO EMERGING MARKETS: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TURNKEY PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bistra Vassileva

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the international market entry strategies in the light of globalisation processes and to propose a conceptual model of turnkey projects as market entry mode. The specific research objectives are as follows: 1. to develop an integrated framework of the turnkey marketing process as a conceptual model; 2. to analyse BRICS countries as potential host countries for turnkey projects implementation; 3. to assess potential implications of proposed conceptual model for global market entry decisions.

  19. Modeling water flow and solute transport in unsaturated zone inside NSRAWD project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Constantin, A.; Diaconu, D.; Bucur, C.; Genty, A.

    2015-01-01

    The NSRAWD project (2010-2013) - Numerical Simulations for Radioactive Waste Disposal was initiated under a collaboration agreement between the Institute for Nuclear Research and the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA). The context of the project was favorable to combine the modeling activities with an experimental part in order to improve and validate the numerical models used so far to simulate water flow and solute transport at Saligny site, Romania. The numerical models developed in the project were refined and validated on new hydrological data gathered between 2010-2012 by a monitoring station existent on site which performs automatic determination of soil water content and matrix potential, as well as several climate parameters (wind, temperature and precipitations). Water flow and solute transport was modeled in transient conditions, by taking into consideration, as well as neglecting the evapotranspiration phenomenon, on the basis of a tracer test launched on site. The determination of dispersivities for solute transport was targeted from the solute plume. The paper presents the main results achieved in the NSRAWD project related to water flow and solute transport in the unsaturated area of the Saligny site. The results indicated satisfactory predictions for the simulation of water flow in the unsaturated area, in steady state and transient conditions. In the case of tracer transport modeling, dispersivity coefficients could not be finally well fitted for the data measured on site and in order to obtain a realistic preview over the values of these parameters, further investigations are recommended. The article is followed by the slides of the presentation

  20. Experience of Hungarian model project: 'Strengthening training for operational safety at Paks NPP'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiss, I.

    1998-01-01

    Training of Operational Safety at Paks NPP is described including all the features of the project including namely: description of Paks NPP, its properties and performances; reasons for establishing Hungarian Model Project, its main goals, mentioning Hungarian and IAEA experts involved in the Project, its organization, operation, budget, current status together with its short term and long term impact

  1. Hardware architecture for projective model calculation and false match refining using random sample consensus algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azimi, Ehsan; Behrad, Alireza; Ghaznavi-Ghoushchi, Mohammad Bagher; Shanbehzadeh, Jamshid

    2016-11-01

    The projective model is an important mapping function for the calculation of global transformation between two images. However, its hardware implementation is challenging because of a large number of coefficients with different required precisions for fixed point representation. A VLSI hardware architecture is proposed for the calculation of a global projective model between input and reference images and refining false matches using random sample consensus (RANSAC) algorithm. To make the hardware implementation feasible, it is proved that the calculation of the projective model can be divided into four submodels comprising two translations, an affine model and a simpler projective mapping. This approach makes the hardware implementation feasible and considerably reduces the required number of bits for fixed point representation of model coefficients and intermediate variables. The proposed hardware architecture for the calculation of a global projective model using the RANSAC algorithm was implemented using Verilog hardware description language and the functionality of the design was validated through several experiments. The proposed architecture was synthesized by using an application-specific integrated circuit digital design flow utilizing 180-nm CMOS technology as well as a Virtex-6 field programmable gate array. Experimental results confirm the efficiency of the proposed hardware architecture in comparison with software implementation.

  2. Development of coupled models and their validation against experiments -DECOVALEX project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephansson, O.; Jing, L.; Kautsky, F.

    1995-01-01

    DECOVALEX is an international co-operative research project for theoretical and experimental studies of coupled thermal, hydrological and mechanical processes in hard rocks. Different mathematical models and computer codes have been developed by research teams from different countries. These models and codes are used to study the so-called Bench Mark Test and Test Case problems developed within this project. Bench-Mark Tests are defined as hypothetical initial-boundary value problems of a generic nature, and Test Cases are experimental investigations of part or full aspects of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical processes in hard rocks. Analytical and semi-analytical solutions related to coupled T-H-M processes are also developed for problems with simpler geometry and initial-boundary conditions. These solutions are developed to verify algorithms and their computer implementations. In this contribution the motivation, organization and approaches and current status of the project are presented, together with definitions of Bench-Mark Tests and Test Case problems. The definition and part of results for a BMT problem (BMT3) for a near-field repository model are described as an example. (authors). 3 refs., 11 figs., 3 tabs

  3. Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation project: 2. Comparison of four modeling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farley, Kevin J.; Meyer, Joe; Balistrieri, Laurie S.; DeSchamphelaere, Karl; Iwasaki, Yuichi; Janssen, Colin; Kamo, Masashi; Lofts, Steve; Mebane, Christopher A.; Naito, Wataru; Ryan, Adam C.; Santore, Robert C.; Tipping, Edward

    2015-01-01

    As part of the Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation (MMME) project, models were developed by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan), the U.S. Geological Survey (USA), HDR⎪HydroQual, Inc. (USA), and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UK) to address the effects of metal mixtures on biological responses of aquatic organisms. A comparison of the 4 models, as they were presented at the MMME Workshop in Brussels, Belgium (May 2012), is provided herein. Overall, the models were found to be similar in structure (free ion activities computed by WHAM; specific or non-specific binding of metals/cations in or on the organism; specification of metal potency factors and/or toxicity response functions to relate metal accumulation to biological response). Major differences in modeling approaches are attributed to various modeling assumptions (e.g., single versus multiple types of binding site on the organism) and specific calibration strategies that affected the selection of model parameters. The models provided a reasonable description of additive (or nearly additive) toxicity for a number of individual toxicity test results. Less-than-additive toxicity was more difficult to describe with the available models. Because of limitations in the available datasets and the strong inter-relationships among the model parameters (log KM values, potency factors, toxicity response parameters), further evaluation of specific model assumptions and calibration strategies is needed.

  4. W-320 Project thermal modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathyanarayana, K., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-03-18

    This report summarizes the results of thermal analysis performed to provide a technical basis in support of Project W-320 to retrieve by sluicing the sludge in Tank 241-C-106 and to transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. Prior theraml evaluations in support of Project W-320 safety analysis assumed the availability of 2000 to 3000 CFM, as provided by Tank Farm Operations, for tank floor cooling channels from the secondary ventilation system. As this flow availability has no technical basis, a detailed Tank 241-AY-102 secondary ventilation and floor coating channel flow model was developed and analysis was performed. The results of the analysis show that only about 150 cfm flow is in floor cooLing channels. Tank 241-AY-102 thermal evaluation was performed to determine the necessary cooling flow for floor cooling channels using W-030 primary ventilation system for different quantities of Tank 241-C-106 sludge transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. These sludge transfers meet different options for the project along with minimum required modification of the ventilation system. Also the results of analysis for the amount of sludge transfer using the current system is presented. The effect of sludge fluffing factor, heat generation rate and its distribution between supernatant and sludge in Tank 241-AY-102 on the amount of sludge transfer from Tank 241-C-106 were evaluated and the results are discussed. Also transient thermal analysis was performed to estimate the time to reach the steady state. For a 2 feet sludge transfer, about 3 months time will be requirad to reach steady state. Therefore, for the purpose of process control, a detailed transient thermal analysis using GOTH Computer Code will be required to determine transient response of the sludge in Tank 241-AY-102. Process control considerations are also discussed to eliminate the potential for a steam bump during retrieval and storage in Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102 respectively.

  5. Research on evaluating water resource resilience based on projection pursuit classification model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dong; Zhao, Dan; Liang, Xu; Wu, Qiuchen

    2016-03-01

    Water is a fundamental natural resource while agriculture water guarantees the grain output, which shows that the utilization and management of water resource have a significant practical meaning. Regional agricultural water resource system features with unpredictable, self-organization, and non-linear which lays a certain difficulty on the evaluation of regional agriculture water resource resilience. The current research on water resource resilience remains to focus on qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis is still in the primary stage, thus, according to the above issues, projection pursuit classification model is brought forward. With the help of artificial fish-swarm algorithm (AFSA), it optimizes the projection index function, seeks for the optimal projection direction, and improves AFSA with the application of self-adaptive artificial fish step and crowding factor. Taking Hongxinglong Administration of Heilongjiang as the research base and on the basis of improving AFSA, it established the evaluation of projection pursuit classification model to agriculture water resource system resilience besides the proceeding analysis of projection pursuit classification model on accelerating genetic algorithm. The research shows that the water resource resilience of Hongxinglong is the best than Raohe Farm, and the last 597 Farm. And the further analysis shows that the key driving factors influencing agricultural water resource resilience are precipitation and agriculture water consumption. The research result reveals the restoring situation of the local water resource system, providing foundation for agriculture water resource management.

  6. An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menary, Matthew B.; Wood, Richard A.

    2018-04-01

    Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America.

  7. PERLUASAN IMPLEMENTASI PENDIDIKAN KEWIRAUSAHAAN MODEL PROJECT BASED LEARNING BAGI REMAJA PUTUS SEKOLAH KORBAN GEMPA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moerdiyanto Moerdiyanto

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Widen Implementation of Entrepreneurship Education Using Project Based Learning Model for Earthquake Victim Drop Out Teenagers. This action research aims at figuring out achievement level of entrepreneurship personalities mastering and business skills held by drop out teenagers after taking part in real business learning experience using Project Based Learning. The population for this study is all of the earthquake victim drop out teenagers in Piyungan, Pleret, and Sewon Bantul Yogyakarta Special Territory.  Interviewed, questionnaire, observation, and documentation are employed to collect data. The results show that entrepreneurship education using Project Based Learning model leads to highly mastering of entrepreneurship personalities (soft skill and highly mastering of business skills (hard skill. Furthermore, through this study Kelompok Usaha Mandiri (Group of Independent Business is created, and then the drop out teenagers can run their own business.   Keyword: business skill, project based learning, soft skill, hard skill   Abstrak: Perluasan Implementasi Pendidikan Kewirausahaan Model Project Based Learning Bagi Remaja Putus Sekolah Korban Gempa. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian tindakan dengan tujuan untuk mengetahui tingkat keberhasilan penguasaan kepribadian (jiwa kewirausahaan dan keterampilan usaha yang dimiliki Remaja Putus Sekolah (RPS setelah memperoleh pengalaman belajar bisnis riil dengan model Project Based Learning. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah semua remaja putus sekolah korban gempa di Kecamatan Piyungan, Kecamatan Pleret, dan Kecamatan Sewon Kabupaten Bantul DIY. Teknik pengumpulan data menggunakan wawancara, angket, observasi, dokumentasi, dan pemberian tugas. Data dianalisis menggunakan teknik deskriptif kuantitatif dan kualitatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pemberian pendidikan kewirausahaan dengan menggunakan model Project Based Learning bisa berhasil dengan baik yang ditunjukkan dengan

  8. Quantifying soil burn severity for hydrologic modeling to assess post-fire effects on sediment delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobre, Mariana; Brooks, Erin; Lew, Roger; Kolden, Crystal; Quinn, Dylan; Elliot, William; Robichaud, Pete

    2017-04-01

    . Alternative spectral indices and modeled output approaches may prove better predictors of soil burn severity and hydrologic effects, but these have not yet been assessed in a model framework. In this project we compare field-verified soil burn severity maps to satellite-derived and modeled burn severity maps. We quantify the extent to which there are systematic differences in these mapping products. We then use the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) hydrologic soil erosion model to assess sediment delivery from these fires using the predicted and observed soil burn severity maps. Finally, we discuss differences in observed and predicted soil burn severity maps and application to watersheds in the Pacific Northwest to estimate post-fire sediment delivery.

  9. Modelling of Airship Flight Mechanics by the Projection Equivalent Method

    OpenAIRE

    Frantisek Jelenciak; Michael Gerke; Ulrich Borgolte

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the projection equivalent method (PEM) as a specific and relatively simple approach for the modelling of aircraft dynamics. By the PEM it is possible to obtain a mathematic al model of the aerodynamic forces and momentums acting on different kinds of aircraft during flight. For the PEM, it is a characteristic of it that - in principle - it provides an acceptable regression model of aerodynamic forces and momentums which exhibits reasonable and plausible behaviour from a...

  10. Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nowicki, Sophie M J; Payne, Anthony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/412549123; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present, and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model

  11. Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.

    1982-09-01

    The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed.

  12. Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.

    1982-09-01

    The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed

  13. Innovation Leadership in Innovation Projects: The Application of the Reflective Practitioner Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oeij, P.R.A.

    2016-01-01

    In 1982 Donald Schön wrote the Reflective Practitioner which implicitly but never explicitly contains a model of steps what it is to act as a reflective practitioner in real life. In this paper we apply that model and try to make this latent (tacit) model into a manifest (explicit) model. Project

  14. Translating hydrologically-relevant variables from the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS to the Greenland Analog Project hydrologic modeling domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallot, Dorothée; Applegate, Patrick; Pettersson, Rickard

    2013-04-01

    Projecting future climate and ice sheet development requires sophisticated models and extensive field observations. Given the present state of our knowledge, it is very difficult to say what will happen with certainty. Despite the ongoing increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the possibility that a new ice sheet might form over Scandinavia in the far distant future cannot be excluded. The growth of a new Scandinavian Ice Sheet would have important consequences for buried nuclear waste repositories. The Greenland Analogue Project, initiated by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB), is working to assess the effects of a possible future ice sheet on groundwater flow by studying a constrained domain in Western Greenland by field measurements (including deep bedrock drilling in front of the ice sheet) combined with numerical modeling. To address the needs of the GAP project, we interpolated results from an ensemble of ice sheet model runs to the smaller and more finely resolved modeling domain used in the GAP project's hydrologic modeling. Three runs have been chosen with three fairly different positive degree-day factors among those that reproduced the modern ice margin at the borehole position. The interpolated results describe changes in hydrologically-relevant variables over two time periods, 115 ka to 80 ka, and 20 ka to 1 ka. In the first of these time periods, the ice margin advances over the model domain; in the second time period, the ice margin retreats over the model domain. The spatially-and temporally dependent variables that we treated include the ice thickness, basal melting rate, surface mass balance, basal temperature, basal thermal regime (frozen or thawed), surface temperature, and basal water pressure. The melt flux is also calculated.

  15. Projected metastable Markov processes and their estimation with observable operator models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Hao; Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Noé, Frank

    2015-01-01

    The determination of kinetics of high-dimensional dynamical systems, such as macromolecules, polymers, or spin systems, is a difficult and generally unsolved problem — both in simulation, where the optimal reaction coordinate(s) are generally unknown and are difficult to compute, and in experimental measurements, where only specific coordinates are observable. Markov models, or Markov state models, are widely used but suffer from the fact that the dynamics on a coarsely discretized state spaced are no longer Markovian, even if the dynamics in the full phase space are. The recently proposed projected Markov models (PMMs) are a formulation that provides a description of the kinetics on a low-dimensional projection without making the Markovianity assumption. However, as yet no general way of estimating PMMs from data has been available. Here, we show that the observed dynamics of a PMM can be exactly described by an observable operator model (OOM) and derive a PMM estimator based on the OOM learning

  16. Pengembangan Model Pembelajaran Project Based Learning pada Mata Kuliah Computer Aided Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoto Endar Nayono

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the key competencies of graduates majoring in Civil Engineering and Planning Education, Faculty of Engineering, Yogyakarta State University (YSU is able to plan buildings. CAD courses aim to train students to be able to pour the planning concepts into the picture. One of the obstacles faced in the course are concepts and pictures that created by the students often do not correspond to the standards used in the field. This study aims to develop a model of project-based learning so that the students’ pictures are more in line with the actual conditions in the field. This study was carried out through the stages as follows: (1 Pre test, (2 Planning of learning, (3 Implementation of the learning model of project-based learning, (4 monitoring and evaluation (5 Reflection and revision, (6 Implementation of learning in the next cycle, and (7 Evaluation of the learning outcomes. This study was conducted for four months in 2012 in the Department of Civil Engineering and Planning Education, Faculty of Engineering, YSU. The subjects of this study are the students who took the course of Computer Aided Design. The analysis of the data used descriptive qualitative and descriptive statistics. The results of this study were: (1 The implementation of project based learning model was proven to increase the learning process and the learning outcomes of students in the subject of CAD through the provision of buildings planning pictures tasks of school buildings based on the real conditions in the field. The task was delivered in every meeting and improved based on the feedback from their lecturers, (2 the learning model of project based learning will be easier to be implemented if it is accompanied by the model of peer tutoring and the learning model of PAIKEM.

  17. Radioactive waste management. International projects on biosphere modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carboneras, P.; Cancio, D.

    1993-01-01

    The paper presents a general overview and discussion on the state of art concerning the biospheric transfer and accumulation of contaminants. A special emphasis is given to the progress achieved in the field of radioactive contaminants and particularly to those implied in radioactive waste disposal. The objectives and advances of the international projects BIOMOVS and VAMP on validation of model predictions are also described. (Author)

  18. The 1993 timber assessment market model: structure, projections, and policy simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darius M. Adams; Richard W. Haynes

    1996-01-01

    The 1993 timber assessment market model (TAMM) is a spatial model of the solidwood and timber inventory elements of the U.S. forest products sector. The TAMM model provides annual projections of volumes and prices in the solidwood products and sawtimber stumpage markets and estimates of total timber harvest and inventory by geographic region for periods of up to 50...

  19. Twisted sigma-model solitons on the quantum projective line

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landi, Giovanni

    2018-04-01

    On the configuration space of projections in a noncommutative algebra, and for an automorphism of the algebra, we use a twisted Hochschild cocycle for an action functional and a twisted cyclic cocycle for a topological term. The latter is Hochschild-cohomologous to the former and positivity in twisted Hochschild cohomology results into a lower bound for the action functional. While the equations for the critical points are rather involved, the use of the positivity and the bound by the topological term lead to self-duality equations (thus yielding twisted noncommutative sigma-model solitons, or instantons). We present explicit nontrivial solutions on the quantum projective line.

  20. Guinea_WADC00321_ADBG_Guinea_Power_Plants

    Data.gov (United States)

    United Nations Cartographic Section — Data for power plants with total installed generating capacity > 10 mw from the Platts World Electric Power Plants Database (WEPP 2006). Plants were georeferenced...

  1. Assessment of CMIP5 climate models and projected temperature changes over Northern Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miao, Chiyuan; Duan, Qingyun; Sun, Qiaohong; Kong, Dongxian; Ye, Aizhong; Di, Zhenhua; Gong, Wei; Huang, Yong; Yang, Tiantian

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the performance of climate models in surface air temperature (SAT) simulation and projection have received increasing attention during the recent decades. This paper assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating intra-annual, annual and decadal temperature over Northern Eurasia from 1901 to 2005. We evaluate the skill of different multi-model ensemble techniques and use the best technique to project the future SAT changes under different emission scenarios. The results show that most of the general circulation models (GCMs) overestimate the annual mean SAT in Northern Eurasia and the difference between the observation and the simulations primarily comes from the winter season. Most of the GCMs can approximately capture the decadal SAT trend; however, the accuracy of annual SAT simulation is relatively low. The correlation coefficient R between each GCM simulation and the annual observation is in the range of 0.20 to 0.56. The Taylor diagram shows that the ensemble results generated by the simple model averaging (SMA), reliability ensemble averaging (REA) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are superior to any single GCM output; and the decadal SAT change generated by SMA, REA and BMA are almost identical during 1901–2005. Heuristically, the uncertainty of BMA simulation is the smallest among the three multi-model ensemble simulations. The future SAT projection generated by the BMA shows that the SAT in Northern Eurasia will increase in the 21st century by around 1.03 °C/100 yr, 3.11 °C/100 yr and 7.14 °C/100 yr under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively; and the warming accelerates with the increasing latitude. In addition, the spring season contributes most to the decadal warming occurring under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, while the winter season contributes most to the decadal warming occurring under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Generally, the uncertainty of the SAT

  2. МULTI-STAKEHOLDER MODEL OF EDUCATION PROJECT QUALITY MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Юлия Юрьевна ГУСЕВА

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of approaches to the definition of higher education projects’ stakeholders is conducted. A model of education project quality management with the influence of stakeholders is formed. A mechanism of recognition of new groups of project’s stakeholders on the basis of set theory is offered.

  3. Disease management projects and the Chronic Care Model in action: baseline qualitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, Bethany Hipple; Adams, Samantha A; Nieboer, Anna P; Bal, Roland

    2012-05-11

    Disease management programs, especially those based on the Chronic Care Model (CCM), are increasingly common in The Netherlands. While disease management programs have been well-researched quantitatively and economically, less qualitative research has been done. The overall aim of the study is to explore how disease management programs are implemented within primary care settings in The Netherlands; this paper focuses on the early development and implementation stages of five disease management programs in the primary care setting, based on interviews with project leadership teams. Eleven semi-structured interviews were conducted at the five selected sites with sixteen professionals interviewed; all project directors and managers were interviewed. The interviews focused on each project's chosen chronic illness (diabetes, eating disorders, COPD, multi-morbidity, CVRM) and project plan, barriers to development and implementation, the project leaders' action and reactions, as well as their roles and responsibilities, and disease management strategies. Analysis was inductive and interpretive, based on the content of the interviews. After analysis, the results of this research on disease management programs and the Chronic Care Model are viewed from a traveling technology framework. This analysis uncovered four themes that can be mapped to disease management and the Chronic Care Model: (1) changing the health care system, (2) patient-centered care, (3) technological systems and barriers, and (4) integrating projects into the larger system. Project leaders discussed the paths, both direct and indirect, for transforming the health care system to one that addresses chronic illness. Patient-centered care was highlighted as needed and a paradigm shift for many. Challenges with technological systems were pervasive. Project leaders managed the expenses of a traveling technology, including the social, financial, and administration involved. At the sites, project leaders served

  4. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, J. C.; Madsen, H.; Andréassian, V.

    2014-01-01

    Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents...... a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation...... to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data...

  5. Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2014-12-01

    Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

  6. Effects of Business Model Development Projects on Organizational Culture: A Multiple Case Study of SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulla Santti

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has shown that links between organizational culture and innovativeness/performance may act as a “social glue” that helps a company develop organizational culture as a competitive advantage. In this study of three case companies, the organizational culture change due business model development projects is studied using the Competing Values Framework (CVF tool and interviews with respondents about discovered changes. To reveal intervention and implied effects between business model development project and organizational culture changes, we used CIMO logic (context, intervention, mechanism, and outcome to bridge practice and theory by explanatory, backward-looking research. Our case studies of companies in relatively short-duration business model development projects indicate that organizational culture may have some dynamic characteristics, for example, an increase of the adhocracy organizational type in all case companies or an increase in the hierarchical leadership type in one case company. Thus, the development of an organizational culture type can be partly controlled. Our results also indicated business model development projects do have a minor effect on organizational culture, even when development activities have not been put fully into practice. However, the more comprehensively business model development project activities have been put into practice, the larger the effect on organizational culture.

  7. Competence development organizations in project management on the basis of genomic model methodologies

    OpenAIRE

    Бушуев, Сергей Дмитриевич; Рогозина, Виктория Борисовна; Ярошенко, Юрий Федерович

    2013-01-01

    The matrix technology for identification of organisational competencies in project management is presented in the article. Matrix elements are the components of organizational competence in the field of project management and project management methodology represented in the structure of the genome. The matrix model of competence in the framework of the adopted methodologies and scanning method for identifying organizational competences formalised. Proposed methods for building effective proj...

  8. Procedures and models for estimating preconstruction costs of highway projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    This study presents data driven and component based PE cost prediction models by utilizing critical factors retrieved from ten years of historical project data obtained from ODOT roadway division. The study used factor analysis of covariance and corr...

  9. Technological Innovation Projects: Proposal For an Integrative Model Between Project Management and Knowledge Management in a Customer-Supplier Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edval da Silva Tavares

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In face of strong competition, companies in Brazil have increased their financial investments in automation, offering new products and services and reducing operating costs. These companies are focusing their efforts on core competencies and, therefore, they often lack the internal expertise to implement new projects, especially those that bring technological innovation. For this reason, we use the processes of outsourcing or subcontracting to help implement such projects. The unit of analysis in this study is the project and the object of the study to analyze the process of knowledge transfer from a provider to a customer during the duration of the project, which involves new technologies. The main motivation of this work is to address the acquisition and retention of new knowledge related to projects designed for business customers. We have developed a study of three cases of multiple financial firms that buy new technologies and two suppliers of information technology. As a practical result, a management model of knowledge transfer and retention of knowledge in client companies is proposed and incorporated into project management.

  10. Make-up wells drilling cost in financial model for a geothermal project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oktaviani Purwaningsih, Fitri; Husnie, Ruly; Afuar, Waldy; Abdurrahman, Gugun

    2017-12-01

    After commissioning of a power plant, geothermal reservoir will encounter pressure decline, which will affect wells productivity. Therefore, further drilling is carried out to enhance steam production. Make-up wells are production wells drilled inside an already confirmed reservoir to maintain steam production in a certain level. Based on Sanyal (2004), geothermal power cost consists of three components, those are capital cost, O&M cost and make-up drilling cost. The make-up drilling cost component is a major part of power cost which will give big influence in a whole economical value of the project. The objective of this paper it to analyse the make-up wells drilling cost component in financial model of a geothermal power project. The research will calculate make-up wells requirements, drilling costs as a function of time and how they influence the financial model and affect the power cost. The best scenario in determining make-up wells strategy in relation with the project financial model would be the result of this research.

  11. MARKET ENTRY STRATEGIES TO EMERGING MARKETS: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TURNKEY PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Bistra Vassileva; Miroslav Nikolov

    2016-01-01

    The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the international market entry strategies in the light of globalisation processes and to propose a conceptual model of turnkey projects as market entry mode. The specific research objectives are as follows: 1. to develop an integrated framework of the turnkey marketing process as a conceptual model; 2. to analyse BRICS countries as potential host countries for turnkey projects implementation; 3. to assess potential implications of proposed concep...

  12. Quantitative Decision Making Model for Carbon Reduction in Road Construction Projects Using Green Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woosik Jang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Numerous countries have established policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and have suggested goals pertaining to these reductions. To reach the target reduction amounts, studies on the reduction of carbon emissions have been conducted with regard to all stages and processes in construction projects. According to a study on carbon emissions, the carbon emissions generated during the construction stage of road projects account for approximately 76 to 86% of the total carbon emissions, far exceeding the other stages, such as maintenance or demolition. Therefore, this study aims to develop a quantitative decision making model that supports the application of green technologies (GTs to reduce carbon emissions during the construction stage of road construction projects. First, the authors selected environmental soundness, economic feasibility and constructability as the key assessment indices for evaluating 20 GTs. Second, a fuzzy set/qualitative comparative analysis (FS/QCA was used to establish an objective decision-making model for the assessment of both the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the key indices. To support the developed model, an expert survey was performed to assess the applicability of each GT from a practical perspective, which was verified with a case study using two additional GTs. The proposed model is expected to support practitioners in the application of suitable GTs to road projects and reduce carbon emissions, resulting in better decision making during road construction projects.

  13. THE PROACTIVE MANAGEMENT MODEL OF STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ON THE ENERGY SUPPLY COMPANIES IN A TURBULENT ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Михайло Збишекович ДОМБРОВСЬКИЙ

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available A methodical approach of proactive project management model with the estimate (prediction deviation of actual results from planned at each control step is proposed. Deviation of actual results from the project planned, which takes place in the management of the energy company transformation project, as a result of action under uncertainty, determines the acceleration of work over the project plan. Implementation the scope of work, which exceeds the plan, as result of overspending of resources and budget, disrupting the stability of the project as a system. The graphic model helps to form the "corridor" tolerance based resource reserve, and the implementation of the project work is carried out according to the extension concept. Clarification allowable deviation area allows improving the model of project proactive management for each of the next execution step. Project management quality is improved by reducing the time of decision-making and increase the sustainability and efficiency by substantially reducing deviations. The conclusions about the benefits of the assessment of works and project resources balance, by using the proactive management model, which allows comparing variants of works dynamics, to implement the search for the best solution to a predetermined set of admissible, have been made.

  14. Towards a new generation of flow and transport models for the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory. Main results from the project Aespoe models 2005

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svensson, Urban (ed.) (Computer-aided Fluid Engineering AB (CFE AB), SE-602 10 Norrkoeping (Sweden)); Vidstrand, Patrik (Bergab AB, Goeteborg (Sweden)); Neretnieks, Ivars (Dept. of Chemical Engineering and Technology, Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Wallin, Bill (Geokema, Lidingoe (Sweden))

    2008-05-15

    This report constitutes the outcome of a project called 'Aespoe models 2005'. The main objective of the project has been to provide a first step towards a new generation of numerical models of flow and transport, for the Aespoe HRL. In order to achieve this goal, work has been carried out along three parallel lines; discussion of basic concepts, compilation and analysis of data and model applications. A number of sub tasks are reported as appendices in the report. In fact, these appendices represent the main achievements of the project: an analysis of fracture properties, compilation of isotope and chemical data, dispersion and mixing in fractured rocks and model results. The conclusion of the project is that significant contributions to a new generation of Aespoe models have been obtained. It has further been demonstrated that working numerical simulations are up and running. Recommendations are provided for the continued work

  15. Towards a new generation of flow and transport models for the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory. Main results from the project Aespoe models 2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svensson, Urban; Vidstrand, Patrik; Neretnieks, Ivars; Wallin, Bill

    2008-05-01

    This report constitutes the outcome of a project called 'Aespoe models 2005'. The main objective of the project has been to provide a first step towards a new generation of numerical models of flow and transport, for the Aespoe HRL. In order to achieve this goal, work has been carried out along three parallel lines; discussion of basic concepts, compilation and analysis of data and model applications. A number of sub tasks are reported as appendices in the report. In fact, these appendices represent the main achievements of the project: an analysis of fracture properties, compilation of isotope and chemical data, dispersion and mixing in fractured rocks and model results. The conclusion of the project is that significant contributions to a new generation of Aespoe models have been obtained. It has further been demonstrated that working numerical simulations are up and running. Recommendations are provided for the continued work

  16. Geomechanical/Geochemical Modeling Studies Conducted within the International DECOVALEX Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkholzer, J.T.; Rutqvist, J.; Sonnenthal, E.L.; Barr, D.; Chijimatsu, M.; Kolditz, O.; Liu, Q.; Oda, Y.; Wang, W.; Xie, M.; Zhang, C.

    2005-01-01

    The DECOVALEX project is an international cooperative project initiated by SKI, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, with participation of about 10 international organizations. The general goal of this project is to encourage multidisciplinary interactive and cooperative research on modeling coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geologic formations in support of the performance assessment for underground storage of radioactive waste. One of the research tasks, initiated in 2004 by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), addresses the long-term impact of geomechanical and geochemical processes on the flow conditions near waste emplacement tunnels. Within this task, four international research teams conduct predictive analysis of the coupled processes in two generic repositories, using multiple approaches and different computer codes. Below, we give an overview of the research task and report its current status

  17. Geomechanical/Geochemical Modeling Studies Conducted Within the International DECOVALEX Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    J.T. Birkholzer; J. Rutqvist; E.L. Sonnenthal; D. Barr; M.Chijimatsu; O. Kolditz; Q. Liu; Y. Oda; W. Wang; M. Xie; C. Zhang

    2006-01-01

    The DECOVALEX project is an international cooperative project initiated by SKI, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, with participation of about 10 international organizations. The general goal of this project is to encourage multidisciplinary interactive and cooperative research on modeling coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geologic formations in support of the performance assessment for underground storage of radioactive waste. One of the research tasks, initiated in 2004 by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), addresses the long-term impact of geomechanical and geochemical processes on the flow conditions near waste emplacement tunnels. Within this task, four international research teams conduct predictive analysis of the coupled processes in two generic repositories, using multiple approaches and different computer codes. Below, we give an overview of the research task and report its current status

  18. Refining multi-model projections of temperature extremes by evaluation against land-atmosphere coupling diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sippel, Sebastian; Zscheischler, Jakob; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Orth, Rene; Reichstein, Markus; Vogel, Martha; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-05-01

    The Earth's land surface and the atmosphere are strongly interlinked through the exchange of energy and matter. This coupled behaviour causes various land-atmosphere feedbacks, and an insufficient understanding of these feedbacks contributes to uncertain global climate model projections. For example, a crucial role of the land surface in exacerbating summer heat waves in midlatitude regions has been identified empirically for high-impact heat waves, but individual climate models differ widely in their respective representation of land-atmosphere coupling. Here, we compile an ensemble of 54 combinations of observations-based temperature (T) and evapotranspiration (ET) benchmarking datasets and investigate coincidences of T anomalies with ET anomalies as a proxy for land-atmosphere interactions during periods of anomalously warm temperatures. First, we demonstrate that a large fraction of state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive produces systematically too frequent coincidences of high T anomalies with negative ET anomalies in midlatitude regions during the warm season and in several tropical regions year-round. These coincidences (high T, low ET) are closely related to the representation of temperature variability and extremes across the multi-model ensemble. Second, we derive a land-coupling constraint based on the spread of the T-ET datasets and consequently retain only a subset of CMIP5 models that produce a land-coupling behaviour that is compatible with these benchmark estimates. The constrained multi-model simulations exhibit more realistic temperature extremes of reduced magnitude in present climate in regions where models show substantial spread in T-ET coupling, i.e. biases in the model ensemble are consistently reduced. Also the multi-model simulations for the coming decades display decreased absolute temperature extremes in the constrained ensemble. On the other hand, the differences between projected

  19. Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

    2012-02-01

    Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Measures to prevent global warming, and NEDO's energy-saving model projects; Chikyu ondanka boshi taisaku to NEDO sho energy model jigyo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-09-01

    Described herein are United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the world AIJ (Activities Implemented Jointly) projects, and the Japan's measures and NEDO's energy-saving model projects therefor. NEDO has been inviting the public to join the contests for the projects to be implemented as part of the AIJ Japan program for the first time since April 1996. A total of 11 projects were adopted in July, including the model project for recovering heat from red-hot coke with inert gas, to be implemented by NEDO in China. After the first invitation, an individual proposal will be accepted and examined for which no time limit is set. The NEDO's model projects approved so far include demonstration studies on facilities for effective utilization of paper-making sludge, waste heat recovery at steel furnaces, energy-saving at electric furnaces for alloys, effective utilization of waste heat at garbage incinerators, and power saving at cement kilns. (NEDO)

  1. Hydrogeological model of the territory of Kowsar hydraulic project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orekhov Vyacheslav Valentinovich

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical hydrogeology model of the territory of Kowsar Project was created with account for the results of the engineering surveys and hydro geological monitoring, which was conducted in the process of Kowsar Project construction. In order to create the model in the present work a universal computer system Ansys was used, which implements the finite element method and solid modeling technology, allowing to solve the filtration problem with the use of thermal analogy. The three-dimensional geometric model was built with use of the principle “hard body” modeling, which displays the main line of the territory relief, including the created water reservoir, geological structure (anticline Duk and the main lithological complexes developed within the territory. In the limestone mass As here is a zone characterized by water permeability on territory of Kowsar Project, and a layer characterized by seepage feeding, which occurs outside the considered territory. The water reservoir is a source of the change of hydro geological situation. The results of field observations witness, that the levels of underground waters within the area of the main structures reacts almost instantly on the water level change in the water reservoir; the delay period of levels change is not more than 1,5…2,0 weeks at maximum distance from the water reservoir. These particularities of the hydro geological regime allow using the steady-state scheme of the decision of forecast problems. The mass of limestone As, containing the structures of the Kowsar Project, is not homogeneous and anisotropy in its seepage characteristics. The heterogeneity is conditioned by exogenous influence on the mass up to the depth of 100…150 m. The seepage anisotropy of the mass is expressed by the difference of water permeability of the mass along and across the layers for almost one order. The structures of Kowsar Project is presented by a dam, grouting curtain on axis of the dam and

  2. Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Project Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bader, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-09-18

    The E3SM project will assert and maintain an international scientific leadership position in the development of Earth system and climate models at the leading edge of scientific knowledge and computational capabilities. With its collaborators, it will demonstrate its leadership by using these models to achieve the goal of designing, executing, and analyzing climate and Earth system simulations that address the most critical scientific questions for the nation and DOE.

  3. Disease management projects and the Chronic Care Model in action: baseline qualitative research

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Disease management programs, especially those based on the Chronic Care Model (CCM), are increasingly common in the Netherlands. While disease management programs have been well-researched quantitatively and economically, less qualitative research has been done. The overall aim of the study is to explore how disease management programs are implemented within primary care settings in the Netherlands; this paper focuses on the early development and implementation stages of five disease management programs in the primary care setting, based on interviews with project leadership teams. Methods Eleven semi-structured interviews were conducted at the five selected sites with sixteen professionals interviewed; all project directors and managers were interviewed. The interviews focused on each project’s chosen chronic illness (diabetes, eating disorders, COPD, multi-morbidity, CVRM) and project plan, barriers to development and implementation, the project leaders’ action and reactions, as well as their roles and responsibilities, and disease management strategies. Analysis was inductive and interpretive, based on the content of the interviews. After analysis, the results of this research on disease management programs and the Chronic Care Model are viewed from a traveling technology framework. Results This analysis uncovered four themes that can be mapped to disease management and the Chronic Care Model: (1) changing the health care system, (2) patient-centered care, (3) technological systems and barriers, and (4) integrating projects into the larger system. Project leaders discussed the paths, both direct and indirect, for transforming the health care system to one that addresses chronic illness. Patient-centered care was highlighted as needed and a paradigm shift for many. Challenges with technological systems were pervasive. Project leaders managed the expenses of a traveling technology, including the social, financial, and administration involved

  4. A multistate model to project elderly disability in case of limited data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Gaag, N.L.; Bijwaard, G.E.; de Beer, J.A.A.; Bonneux, L.

    2015-01-01

    Background : Prevalence of disability depends on when a person becomes disabled (disability incidence) and when he or she dies (mortality). Multistate projection models can take into account both underlying processes of disability prevalence. The application of these models, however, is often

  5. Demonstrating sustainable energy: A review-based model of sustainable energy demonstration projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bossink, Bart

    2017-01-01

    This article develops a model of sustainable energy demonstration projects, based on a review of 229 scientific publications on demonstrations in renewable and sustainable energy. The model addresses the basic organizational characteristics (aim, cooperative form, and physical location) and learning

  6. Innovations in project activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serbskaya O.V.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available this article considers the ways of project management, models of project management: classical model and the model of flexible designing Agile, pays more attention to the process of project management using Agile model and to the problems of using the project management models in modern conditions.

  7. Developing a Massively Parallel Forward Projection Radiography Model for Large-Scale Industrial Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauerle, Matthew [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-08-01

    This project utilizes Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to compute radiograph simulations for arbitrary objects. The generation of radiographs, also known as the forward projection imaging model, is computationally intensive and not widely utilized. The goal of this research is to develop a massively parallel algorithm that can compute forward projections for objects with a trillion voxels (3D pixels). To achieve this end, the data are divided into blocks that can each t into GPU memory. The forward projected image is also divided into segments to allow for future parallelization and to avoid needless computations.

  8. SR 97. Alternative models project. Stochastic continuum modelling of Aberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Widen, H.; Walker, D.

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modelling approaches to bedrock performance assessment for a single hypothetical repository, arbitrarily named Aberg. The Aberg repository will adopt input parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The models are restricted to an explicit domain, boundary conditions and canister location to facilitate the comparison. The boundary conditions are based on the regional groundwater model provided in digital format. This study is the application of HYDRASTAR, a stochastic continuum groundwater flow and transport-modelling program. The study uses 34 realisations of 945 canister locations in the hypothetical repository to evaluate the uncertainty of the advective travel time, canister flux (Darcy velocity at a canister) and F-ratio. Several comparisons of variability are constructed between individual canister locations and individual realisations. For the ensemble of all realisations with all canister locations, the study found a median travel time of 27 years, a median canister flux of 7.1 x 10 -4 m/yr and a median F-ratio of 3.3 x 10 5 yr/m. The overall pattern of regional flow is preserved in the site-scale model, as is reflected in flow paths and exit locations. The site-scale model slightly over-predicts the boundary fluxes from the single realisation of the regional model. The explicitly prescribed domain was seen to be slightly restrictive, with 6% of the stream tubes failing to exit the upper surface of the model. Sensitivity analysis and calibration are suggested as possible extensions of the modelling study

  9. Computer Hardware, Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics pilot project final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-05-01

    The Computer Hardware, Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics (CHAMMP) Program was launched in January, 1990. A principal objective of the program has been to utilize the emerging capabilities of massively parallel scientific computers in the challenge of regional scale predictions of decade-to-century climate change. CHAMMP has already demonstrated the feasibility of achieving a 10,000 fold increase in computational throughput for climate modeling in this decade. What we have also recognized, however, is the need for new algorithms and computer software to capitalize on the radically new computing architectures. This report describes the pilot CHAMMP projects at the DOE National Laboratories and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The pilot projects were selected to identify the principal challenges to CHAMMP and to entrain new scientific computing expertise. The success of some of these projects has aided in the definition of the CHAMMP scientific plan. Many of the papers in this report have been or will be submitted for publication in the open literature. Readers are urged to consult with the authors directly for questions or comments about their papers

  10. Project ECHO: A Telementoring Network Model for Continuing Professional Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Sanjeev; Kalishman, Summers G; Thornton, Karla A; Komaromy, Miriam S; Katzman, Joanna G; Struminger, Bruce B; Rayburn, William F

    2017-01-01

    A major challenge with current systems of CME is the inability to translate the explosive growth in health care knowledge into daily practice. Project ECHO (Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes) is a telementoring network designed for continuing professional development (CPD) and improving patient outcomes. The purpose of this article was to describe how the model has complied with recommendations from several authoritative reports about redesigning and enhancing CPD. This model links primary care clinicians through a knowledge network with an interprofessional team of specialists from an academic medical center who provide telementoring and ongoing education enabling community clinicians to treat patients with a variety of complex conditions. Knowledge and skills are shared during weekly condition-specific videoconferences. The model exemplifies learning as described in the seven levels of CPD by Moore (participation, satisfaction, learning, competence, performance, patient, and community health). The model is also aligned with recommendations from four national reports intended to redesign knowledge transfer in improving health care. Efforts in learning sessions focus on information that is relevant to practice, focus on evidence, education methodology, tailoring of recommendations to individual needs and community resources, and interprofessionalism. Project ECHO serves as a telementoring network model of CPD that aligns with current best practice recommendations for CME. This transformative initiative has the potential to serve as a leading model for larger scale CPD, nationally and globally, to enhance access to care, improve quality, and reduce cost.

  11. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Quella, Thomas [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Saleur, Hubert [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Inst. de Physique Theorique; USC, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Physics Dept.

    2009-08-15

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle {theta}. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  12. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker; Quella, Thomas; Saleur, Hubert; USC, Los Angeles, CA

    2009-08-01

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP S-1 vertical stroke S gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle θ. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP S-1 vertical stroke S model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  13. Collaborative Management of Complex Major Construction Projects: AnyLogic-Based Simulation Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Na Zhao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Complex supply chain system collaborative management of major construction projects effectively integrates the different participants in the construction project. This paper establishes a simulation model based on AnyLogic to reveal the collaborative elements in the complex supply chain management system and the modes of action as well as the transmission problems of the intent information. Thus it is promoting the participants to become an organism with coordinated development and coevolution. This study can help improve the efficiency and management of the complex system of major construction projects.

  14. The impact of applying product-modelling techniques in configurator projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvam, Lars; Kristjansdottir, Katrin; Shafiee, Sara

    2018-01-01

    This paper aims to increase understanding of the impact of using product-modelling techniques to structure and formalise knowledge in configurator projects. Companies that provide customised products increasingly apply configurators in support of sales and design activities, reaping benefits...... that include shorter lead times, improved quality of specifications and products, and lower overall product costs. The design and implementation of configurators are a challenging task that calls for scientifically based modelling techniques to support the formal representation of configurator knowledge. Even...... the phenomenon model and information model are considered visually, (2) non-UML-based modelling techniques, in which only the phenomenon model is considered and (3) non-formal modelling techniques. This study analyses the impact to companies from increased availability of product knowledge and improved control...

  15. A mathematical model for crashing projects by considering time, cost, quality and risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Mahmoudi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Employers are looking for reducing execution time and maintaining the quality of the projects that are the main objective of the projects. In this article, we focus on crashing projects by con-sidering different factors such as cost, time, quality and risk. For the proposed integer linear model, cost of conformance and cost of non-conformance are considered as parts of the costs of quality of deliverables in projects. The cost of conformance consists of the costs of training the project team, inspection and test of deliverables. The cost of non-conformance also includes costs of rework and scrap. Project risk management is one of the important aspects of the pro-jects. The present study also considers the impact of risks, which is highly applicable in projects with a high level of uncertainty. Results are presented using integer programming approach with the aim of minimizing the costs of the project.

  16. What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwiatkowski, Lester; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Stephenson, David B.

    2014-09-01

    Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.

  17. An Application of the PMI Model at the Project Level: Evaluation of the ESEA Title IV C Fresh Start Minischool Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Patricia C.

    The Planning, Monitoring, and Implementation Model (PMI) was developed to provide a model for systematic evaluation of educational programs to determine their effectiveness in achieving goals and objectives. This paper demonstrates the applicability of the PMI model at the project level. Fresh Start Minischool at Ballou High School (District of…

  18. Housing Value Projection Model Related to Educational Planning: The Feasibility of a New Methodology. Final Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbock, Richard W.; Marker, Gordon

    This study concerns the feasibility of a Markov chain model for projecting housing values and racial mixes. Such projections could be used in planning the layout of school districts to achieve desired levels of socioeconomic heterogeneity. Based upon the concepts and assumptions underlying a Markov chain model, it is concluded that such a model is…

  19. Model and Algorithm for Substantiating Solutions for Organization of High-Rise Construction Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anisimov Vladimir

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the models and the algorithm for the optimal plan formation for the organization of the material and logistical processes of the high-rise construction project and their financial support are developed. The model is based on the representation of the optimization procedure in the form of a non-linear problem of discrete programming, which consists in minimizing the execution time of a set of interrelated works by a limited number of partially interchangeable performers while limiting the total cost of performing the work. The proposed model and algorithm are the basis for creating specific organization management methodologies for the high-rise construction project.

  20. Model and Algorithm for Substantiating Solutions for Organization of High-Rise Construction Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anisimov, Vladimir; Anisimov, Evgeniy; Chernysh, Anatoliy

    2018-03-01

    In the paper the models and the algorithm for the optimal plan formation for the organization of the material and logistical processes of the high-rise construction project and their financial support are developed. The model is based on the representation of the optimization procedure in the form of a non-linear problem of discrete programming, which consists in minimizing the execution time of a set of interrelated works by a limited number of partially interchangeable performers while limiting the total cost of performing the work. The proposed model and algorithm are the basis for creating specific organization management methodologies for the high-rise construction project.

  1. Model Evaluation and Uncertainty in Agricultural Impacts Assessments: Results and Strategies from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Hatfield, J.; Jones, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.

    2012-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is an international effort to assess the state of global agricultural modeling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector. AgMIP connects the climate science, crop modeling, and agricultural economic modeling communities to generate probabilistic projections of current and future climate impacts. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. This presentation will describe the general approach of AgMIP, highlight AgMIP efforts to evaluate climate, crop, and economic models, and discuss AgMIP uncertainty assessments. Model evaluation efforts will be outlined using examples from various facets of AgMIP, including climate scenario generation, the wheat crop model intercomparison, and the global agricultural economics model intercomparison being led in collaboration with the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Strategies developed to quantify uncertainty in each component of AgMIP, as well as the propagation of uncertainty through the climate-crop-economic modeling framework, will be detailed and preliminary uncertainty assessments that highlight crucial areas requiring improved models and data collection will be introduced.

  2. New Results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, A.; Kravitz, B.

    2013-12-01

    The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) was designed to determine robust climate system model responses to Solar Radiation Management (SRM). While mitigation (reducing greenhouse gases emissions) is the most effective way of reducing future climate change, SRM (the deliberate modification of incoming solar radiation) has been proposed as a means of temporarily alleviating some of the effects of global warming. For society to make informed decisions as to whether SRM should ever be implemented, information is needed on the benefits, risks, and side effects, and GeoMIP seeks to aid in that endeavor. GeoMIP has organized four standardized climate model simulations involving reduction of insolation or increased amounts of stratospheric sulfate aerosols to counteract increasing greenhouse gases. Thirteen comprehensive atmosphere-ocean general circulation models have participated in the project so far. GeoMIP is a 'CMIP Coordinated Experiment' as part of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and has been endorsed by SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate). GeoMIP has held three international workshops and has produced a number of recent journal articles. GeoMIP has found that if increasing greenhouse gases could be counteracted with insolation reduction, the global average temperature could be kept constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform. The tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without SRM. If SRM were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5-10 times the rates from gradual global warming. SRM combined with CO2 fertilization would have small impacts on rice production in China, but would increase maize production

  3. The option to expand a project: its assessment with the binomial options pricing model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    Full Text Available Traditional methods of investment appraisal, like the Net Present Value, are not able to include the value of the operational flexibility of the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to expand, are assumed to be included in the project information in addition to the expected cash flows. Thus, to calculate the total value of the project, we are going to apply the methodology of the Net Present Value to the different scenarios derived from the existence of the real option to expand. Taking into account the analogy between real and financial options, the value of including an option to expand is explored by using the binomial options pricing model. In this way, estimating the value of the option to expand is a tool which facilitates the control of the uncertainty element implicit in the project. Keywords: Real options, Option to expand, Binomial options pricing model, Investment project appraisal

  4. Model dependence and its effect on ensemble projections in CMIP5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramowitz, G.; Bishop, C.

    2013-12-01

    Conceptually, the notion of model dependence within climate model ensembles is relatively simple - modelling groups share a literature base, parametrisations, data sets and even model code - the potential for dependence in sampling different climate futures is clear. How though can this conceptual problem inform a practical solution that demonstrably improves the ensemble mean and ensemble variance as an estimate of system uncertainty? While some research has already focused on error correlation or error covariance as a candidate to improve ensemble mean estimates, a complete definition of independence must at least implicitly subscribe to an ensemble interpretation paradigm, such as the 'truth-plus-error', 'indistinguishable', or more recently 'replicate Earth' paradigm. Using a definition of model dependence based on error covariance within the replicate Earth paradigm, this presentation will show that accounting for dependence in surface air temperature gives cooler projections in CMIP5 - by as much as 20% globally in some RCPs - although results differ significantly for each RCP, especially regionally. The fact that the change afforded by accounting for dependence across different RCPs is different is not an inconsistent result. Different numbers of submissions to each RCP by different modelling groups mean that differences in projections from different RCPs are not entirely about RCP forcing conditions - they also reflect different sampling strategies.

  5. Multi-model Ensemble Regional Climate Projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, S.; IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2016-12-01

    In this study, the future change in precipitation due to global warming is investigated over the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM). A total of nine 30-year projections under multi-GCMs (CCSM, MPI, ACCESS) and multi-scenarios of emissions (Control, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are dynamically downscaled using the MRCM with 12km horizontal resolution. Since downscaled results tend to systematically overestimate the precipitation regardless of GCM used as lateral boundary conditions, the Parametric Quantile Mapping (PQM) is applied to reduce this wet bias. The cross validation for the control simulation shows that the PQM method seems to retain the spatial pattern and temporal variability of raw simulation, however it effectively reduce the wet bias. Based on ensemble projections produced by dynamical downscaling and statistical bias correction, a reduction of future precipitation is discernible, in particular during dry season (June-July-August). For example, intense precipitation in Singapore is expected to be reduced in RCP8.5 projection compared to control simulation. However, the geographical patterns and magnitude of changes still remain uncertain, suffering from statistical insignificance and a lack of model agreement. Acknowledgements This research is supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore under its Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise programme. The Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling is an interdisciplinary research group of the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology

  6. Exploring Students' Computational Thinking Skills in Modeling and Simulation Projects: : A Pilot Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grgurina, Natasa; van Veen, Klaas; Barendsen, Erik; Zwaneveld, Bert; Suhre, Cor; Gal-Ezer, Judith; Sentance, Sue; Vahrenhold, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Computational Thinking (CT) is gaining a lot of attention in education. We explored how to discern the occurrences of CT in the projects of 12th grade high school students in the computer science (CS) course. Within the projects, they constructed models and ran simulations of phenomena from other

  7. Collaborative Project: Improving the Representation of Coastal and Estuarine Processes in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bryan, Frank [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Dennis, John [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); MacCready, Parker [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Whitney, Michael [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2016-10-20

    This project aimed to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving and enhancing the representation of the processes involved in the cycling of freshwater through estuaries and coastal regions. This was a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of physical oceanographers, climate model developers, and computational scientists. It specifically targeted the DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation.

  8. A combined AHP-GP model to allocate internal auditing time to projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HA Kruger

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The optimal allocation of internal auditing time among competing projects is a multi-criteria problem that includes both qualitative and quantitative factors. This paper discusses an integrated approach where the analytic hierarchy process (AHP is used to deal with qualitative risk assessments and a goal programming (GP model to distribute available hours in such a way that risk is minimised. Additional considerations, such as maximum and minimum allowable project hours, risk reducing factors and risk levels, are also taken into account. Following a description of the models and framework, a brief case study is presented in which the framework was empirically evaluated.

  9. GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.; Wang, Bin; Qian, Yun; Chen, Xiaolong; Wu, Bo; Wang, Bin; Liu, Bo; Zou, Liwei; He, Bian

    2016-10-10

    The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the “Grand Challenges” proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examine (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), “historical” simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.

  10. Using UML Modeling to Facilitate Three-Tier Architecture Projects in Software Engineering Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Sandeep

    2014-01-01

    This article presents the use of a model-centric approach to facilitate software development projects conforming to the three-tier architecture in undergraduate software engineering courses. Many instructors intend that such projects create software applications for use by real-world customers. While it is important that the first version of these…

  11. Frequent Change Request From User to Handle Cost on Project in Agile Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shariq Aziz Butt

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Agile has invented to improve and overcome Draw backs of software development. Now agile model is using in software development very vastly. It is facilitating the developer and client both very resourcefully. It is getting popularity than the other Software Development Life Cycle models because of its characteristics and most owing to allow change request at any level of the project. The client in the software development is the main part and asset of the company. The software house always focuses on its client because client is an asset. Thus developer has major concern with the client’s requirement and change request. Agile is getting popularity because of allow change request at any stage of project, on the other hand it is also a drawback in agile model because when project starts the project’s completion time and cost is decided. But due to frequent change of requests come from client the cost and completion time both increase eventually which is not good for software house’s business and reputation. So there is need a cost and time estimation technique to solve change request issue in agile model.

  12. Erodabilidad de suelos del sur de la Región Semiárida argentina Erodibility of soils in the south of the semiarid region of Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nora E Echeverría

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available La erodabilidad de los suelos se puede medir a campo mediante simuladores de lluvia o predecir mediante modelos matemáticos como USLE y WEPP. El objetivo del trabajo fue medir la erodabilidad de tres suelos representativos del Sur de la Región semiárida argentina y compararla con la estimada por los modelos WEPP y USLE. En los suelos Bahía Blanca (SBB y Cabildo (SC -Paleustoles Petrocálcicos- y Villarino (SV -Calciustol Petrocálcicose aplicaron, mediante un simulador portátil, dos lluvias consecutivas de 32 mm en 30 minutos. Las pérdidas de suelo debido a la 1° y 2° lluvia indicaron: SV 3,26 y 5,86 Mg ha-1 h-1; SC 2,04 y 5,53 Mg ha-1 h-1; SBB 0,75 y 2,66 Mg ha-1 h-1, respectivamente. La resistencia del suelo a la erosión correlacionó con la relación limo: arcilla (r:0,60, CO (r:0,55 y estabilidad estructural (r:0,56.Las tasas de escurrimiento y sedimentación promedio fueron para SV: 12,4 10-6 m s-1 y 15,6 10-5 kg s-1 m-2; para SC: 9,9 10-6 m s-1 y 13,5 10-5 kg s-1 m-2 y para SBB: 9,6 10-6 m s-1 y 6,1 10-5 kg s-1 m-2, respectivamente. El comportamiento de SV se debió al rápido sellado del horizonte superficial, mientras que el de SBB y el SC se relacionó con la estabilidad estructural. En el modelo WEPP, la erodabilidad medida entre surcos (Ki fue, para SV: 2,5; SC: 1,89 y SBB: 1,39 (10(6 kg s m-4; mientras que la estimada (Kib fue significativamente más alta, SV: 6,26; SC: 10,2 y SBB: 10,2 (10(6 kg s m-4. Los índices de erosión (IE fueron, SV: 0,30; SC: 0,21 y SBB: 0,10 Mg MJ-1 y discreparon significativamente de los valores K estimados a partir del nomograma, confirmando que las predicciones del mismo resultan poco confiables en suelos con el 65% o más de arenas.Water erodibility of soils can be measured in the field using rainfall simulators or be predicted with mathematical models as USLE and WEPP. The objective of our research was to determine water erodibility of three representative soils in the southern semiarid

  13. NASA's TReK Project: A Case Study in Using the Spiral Model of Software Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrix, T. Dean; Schneider, Michelle P.

    1998-01-01

    Software development projects face numerous challenges that threaten their successful completion. Whether it is not enough money, too little time, or a case of "requirements creep" that has turned into a full sprint, projects must meet these challenges or face possible disastrous consequences. A robust, yet flexible process model can provide a mechanism through which software development teams can meet these challenges head on and win. This article describes how the spiral model has been successfully tailored to a specific project and relates some notable results to date.

  14. Logistics of Mathematical Modeling-Focused Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwood, R. Corban

    2018-01-01

    This article addresses the logistics of implementing projects in an undergraduate mathematics class and is intended both for new instructors and for instructors who have had negative experiences implementing projects in the past. Project implementation is given for both lower- and upper-division mathematics courses with an emphasis on mathematical…

  15. Refining multi-model projections of temperature extremes by evaluation against land–atmosphere coupling diagnostics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sippel

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The Earth's land surface and the atmosphere are strongly interlinked through the exchange of energy and matter. This coupled behaviour causes various land–atmosphere feedbacks, and an insufficient understanding of these feedbacks contributes to uncertain global climate model projections. For example, a crucial role of the land surface in exacerbating summer heat waves in midlatitude regions has been identified empirically for high-impact heat waves, but individual climate models differ widely in their respective representation of land–atmosphere coupling. Here, we compile an ensemble of 54 combinations of observations-based temperature (T and evapotranspiration (ET benchmarking datasets and investigate coincidences of T anomalies with ET anomalies as a proxy for land–atmosphere interactions during periods of anomalously warm temperatures. First, we demonstrate that a large fraction of state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 archive produces systematically too frequent coincidences of high T anomalies with negative ET anomalies in midlatitude regions during the warm season and in several tropical regions year-round. These coincidences (high T, low ET are closely related to the representation of temperature variability and extremes across the multi-model ensemble. Second, we derive a land-coupling constraint based on the spread of the T–ET datasets and consequently retain only a subset of CMIP5 models that produce a land-coupling behaviour that is compatible with these benchmark estimates. The constrained multi-model simulations exhibit more realistic temperature extremes of reduced magnitude in present climate in regions where models show substantial spread in T–ET coupling, i.e. biases in the model ensemble are consistently reduced. Also the multi-model simulations for the coming decades display decreased absolute temperature extremes in the constrained ensemble. On the other hand

  16. Do projections from bioclimatic envelope models and climate change metrics match?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia, Raquel A.; Cabeza, Mar; Altwegg, Res

    2016-01-01

    as indicators of the exposure of species to climate change. Here, we investigate whether these two approaches provide qualitatively similar indications about where biodiversity is potentially most exposed to climate change. Location: Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: We compared a range of climate change metrics...... for sub-Saharan Africa with ensembles of bioclimatic envelope models for 2723 species of amphibians, snakes, mammals and birds. For each taxonomic group, we performed three comparisons between the two approaches: (1) is projected change in local climatic suitability (models) greater in grid cells...... between the two approaches was found for all taxonomic groups, although it was stronger for species with a narrower climatic envelope breadth. Main conclusions: For sub-Saharan African vertebrates, projected patterns of exposure to climate change given by climate change metrics alone were qualitatively...

  17. Projected changes in precipitation intensity and frequency over complex topography: a multi-model perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Keller, Denise; Liniger, Mark; Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph; Appenzeller, Christof

    2014-05-01

    Fundamental changes in the hydrological cycle are expected in a future warmer climate. This is of particular relevance for the Alpine region, as a source and reservoir of several major rivers in Europe and being prone to extreme events such as floodings. For this region, climate change assessments based on the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) project a significant decrease in summer mean precipitation under the A1B emission scenario by the mid-to-end of this century, while winter mean precipitation is expected to slightly rise. From an impact perspective, projected changes in seasonal means, however, are often insufficient to adequately address the multifaceted challenges of climate change adaptation. In this study, we revisit the full matrix of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections regarding changes in frequency and intensity, precipitation-type (convective versus stratiform) and temporal structure (wet/dry spells and transition probabilities) over Switzerland and surroundings. As proxies for raintype changes, we rely on the model parameterized convective and large-scale precipitation components. Part of the analysis involves a Bayesian multi-model combination algorithm to infer changes from the multi-model ensemble. The analysis suggests a summer drying that evolves altitude-specific: over low-land regions it is associated with wet-day frequency decreases of convective and large-scale precipitation, while over elevated regions it is primarily associated with a decline in large-scale precipitation only. As a consequence, almost all the models project an increase in the convective fraction at elevated Alpine altitudes. The decrease in the number of wet days during summer is accompanied by decreases (increases) in multi-day wet (dry) spells. This shift in multi-day episodes also lowers the likelihood of short dry spell occurrence in all of the models. For spring and autumn the combined multi-model projections indicate higher mean precipitation intensity north of the

  18. Towards an Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI the HarmonIT project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Blind

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The Water Framework Directive (WFD poses an immense challenge to water management in Europe. Aiming at a "good ecological status" of surface waters in 2015, integrated river basin management plans need to be in place by 2009, and broadly supported by stakeholders. Information & Communication Technology (ICT tools, such as computational models, are very helpful in designing river basin management plans (rbmp-s. However, many scientists believe that a single integrated modelling system to support the WFD cannot be developed, and integrated systems need to be quite tailored to the local situation and evolve during a collaborative planning process. As a consequence there is an urgent need to increase the flexibility of modelling systems, such that dedicated model systems can be developed from available building blocks. In the recent past a number of initiatives have been started to develop an IT framework for modelling to meet the required flexibility. In Europe the international project HarmonIT, which is sponsored by the European Commission, is developing and implementing a standard interface for modelling components and other relevant tools: The Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI. This paper describes the HarmonIT project and objectives in general. The current progress is described. It describes the roles for different types of stakeholders in modelling, varying from software coders to non-specialized users of decision support systems. It will provide insight in the requirements imposed when using the OpenMI.

  19. Initialization of the Euler model MODIS with field data from the 'EPRI plume model validation project'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, G.; Eppel, D.; Lautenschlager, M.; Mueller, A.

    1985-01-01

    The program deck MODIS (''MOment DIStribution'') is designed to be used as operational tool for modelling the dispersion of a point source under general atmospheric conditions. The concentration distribution is determined by calculating its cross-wind moments on a vertical grid oriented in the main wind direction. The model contains a parametrization for horizontal and vertical coefficients based on a second order closure model. The Eulerian time scales, preliminary determined by fitting measured plume cross sections, are confirmed by comparison with data from the EPRI plume model validation project. (orig.) [de

  20. [Transparency as a prerequisite of innovation in health services research: deficits in the reporting of model projects concerning managed care].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiethege, J; Ommen, O; Ernstmann, N; Pfaff, H

    2010-10-01

    Currently, elements of managed care are being implemented in the German health-care system. The legal basis for these innovations are § 140, § 73, § 137, and §§ 63 et seq. of the German Social Code - Part 5 (SGB V). For the model projects according to §§ 63 et seq. of the German Social Code a scientific evaluation and publication of the evaluation results is mandatory. The present study examines the status of evaluation of German model projects. The present study has a mixed method design: A mail and telephone survey with the German Federal Social Insurance Authority, the health insurance funds, and the regional Associations of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians has been conducted. Furthermore, an internet research on "Medpilot" and "Google" has been accomplished to search for model projects and their evaluation reports. 34 model projects met the inclusion criteria. 13 of these projects had been terminated up to 30/9/2008. 6 of them have published an evaluation report. 4 model projects have published substantial documents. One model project in progress has published a meaningful interim report. 12 model projects failed to give information concerning the evaluator or the duration of the model projects. The results show a significant deficit in the mandatory reporting of the evaluation of model projects in Germany. There is a need for action for the legislator and the health insurance funds in terms of promoting the evaluation and the publication of the results. The institutions evaluating the model projects should obligate themselves to publish the evaluation results. The publication is an essential precondition for the development of managed care structures in the health-care system and in the development of scientific evaluation methods. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  1. Reconstruction of implanted marker trajectories from cone-beam CT projection images using interdimensional correlation modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Hyekyun; Poulsen, Per Rugaard; Keall, Paul J.; Cho, Seungryong; Cho, Byungchul

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Cone-beam CT (CBCT) is a widely used imaging modality for image-guided radiotherapy. Most vendors provide CBCT systems that are mounted on a linac gantry. Thus, CBCT can be used to estimate the actual 3-dimensional (3D) position of moving respiratory targets in the thoracic/abdominal region using 2D projection images. The authors have developed a method for estimating the 3D trajectory of respiratory-induced target motion from CBCT projection images using interdimensional correlation modeling. Methods: Because the superior–inferior (SI) motion of a target can be easily analyzed on projection images of a gantry-mounted CBCT system, the authors investigated the interdimensional correlation of the SI motion with left–right and anterior–posterior (AP) movements while the gantry is rotating. A simple linear model and a state-augmented model were implemented and applied to the interdimensional correlation analysis, and their performance was compared. The parameters of the interdimensional correlation models were determined by least-square estimation of the 2D error between the actual and estimated projected target position. The method was validated using 160 3D tumor trajectories from 46 thoracic/abdominal cancer patients obtained during CyberKnife treatment. The authors’ simulations assumed two application scenarios: (1) retrospective estimation for the purpose of moving tumor setup used just after volumetric matching with CBCT; and (2) on-the-fly estimation for the purpose of real-time target position estimation during gating or tracking delivery, either for full-rotation volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) in 60 s or a stationary six-field intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with a beam delivery time of 20 s. Results: For the retrospective CBCT simulations, the mean 3D root-mean-square error (RMSE) for all 4893 trajectory segments was 0.41 mm (simple linear model) and 0.35 mm (state-augmented model). In the on-the-fly simulations, prior

  2. Reconstruction of implanted marker trajectories from cone-beam CT projection images using interdimensional correlation modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Hyekyun [Department of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon 34141, South Korea and Department of Radiation Oncology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul 138-736 (Korea, Republic of); Poulsen, Per Rugaard [Department of Oncology, Aarhus University Hospital, Nørrebrogade 44, 8000 Aarhus C (Denmark); Keall, Paul J. [Radiation Physics Laboratory, Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); Cho, Seungryong [Department of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon 34141 (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Byungchul, E-mail: cho.byungchul@gmail.com, E-mail: bcho@amc.seoul.kr [Department of Radiation Oncology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul 05505 (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-08-15

    Purpose: Cone-beam CT (CBCT) is a widely used imaging modality for image-guided radiotherapy. Most vendors provide CBCT systems that are mounted on a linac gantry. Thus, CBCT can be used to estimate the actual 3-dimensional (3D) position of moving respiratory targets in the thoracic/abdominal region using 2D projection images. The authors have developed a method for estimating the 3D trajectory of respiratory-induced target motion from CBCT projection images using interdimensional correlation modeling. Methods: Because the superior–inferior (SI) motion of a target can be easily analyzed on projection images of a gantry-mounted CBCT system, the authors investigated the interdimensional correlation of the SI motion with left–right and anterior–posterior (AP) movements while the gantry is rotating. A simple linear model and a state-augmented model were implemented and applied to the interdimensional correlation analysis, and their performance was compared. The parameters of the interdimensional correlation models were determined by least-square estimation of the 2D error between the actual and estimated projected target position. The method was validated using 160 3D tumor trajectories from 46 thoracic/abdominal cancer patients obtained during CyberKnife treatment. The authors’ simulations assumed two application scenarios: (1) retrospective estimation for the purpose of moving tumor setup used just after volumetric matching with CBCT; and (2) on-the-fly estimation for the purpose of real-time target position estimation during gating or tracking delivery, either for full-rotation volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) in 60 s or a stationary six-field intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with a beam delivery time of 20 s. Results: For the retrospective CBCT simulations, the mean 3D root-mean-square error (RMSE) for all 4893 trajectory segments was 0.41 mm (simple linear model) and 0.35 mm (state-augmented model). In the on-the-fly simulations, prior

  3. Network models for solving the problem of multicriterial adaptive optimization of investment projects control with several acceptable technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shorikov, A. F.; Butsenko, E. V.

    2017-10-01

    This paper discusses the problem of multicriterial adaptive optimization the control of investment projects in the presence of several technologies. On the basis of network modeling proposed a new economic and mathematical model and a method for solving the problem of multicriterial adaptive optimization the control of investment projects in the presence of several technologies. Network economic and mathematical modeling allows you to determine the optimal time and calendar schedule for the implementation of the investment project and serves as an instrument to increase the economic potential and competitiveness of the enterprise. On a meaningful practical example, the processes of forming network models are shown, including the definition of the sequence of actions of a particular investment projecting process, the network-based work schedules are constructed. The calculation of the parameters of network models is carried out. Optimal (critical) paths have been formed and the optimal time for implementing the chosen technologies of the investment project has been calculated. It also shows the selection of the optimal technology from a set of possible technologies for project implementation, taking into account the time and cost of the work. The proposed model and method for solving the problem of managing investment projects can serve as a basis for the development, creation and application of appropriate computer information systems to support the adoption of managerial decisions by business people.

  4. Integrated project risk management of nuclear power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xiaohui; Xu Yuanhui

    2001-01-01

    The concept and the features of risks in nuclear power projects are introduced, and in terms of nuclear power projects' own features, the Nuclear Power Project Integrated Risk Management Model is presented. The identification, estimation, evaluation, response plan development, control of risks and the theoretical basis of risk management are discussed. The model has feedback and control functions in order to control and manage the risks dynamically

  5. THE PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION MODEL OF INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS AND MANAGERIAL FEASIBILITY OF THEIR BEHAVIOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Ye. Uvarov

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In the article the basic problem of substantiation of parameters of optimization model of organizationaltechnological solutions for investment-building projects in the system of project management is considered.

  6. Spatially-Distributed Stream Flow and Nutrient Dynamics Simulations Using the Component-Based AgroEcoSystem-Watershed (AgES-W) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascough, J. C.; David, O.; Heathman, G. C.; Smith, D. R.; Green, T. R.; Krause, P.; Kipka, H.; Fink, M.

    2010-12-01

    The Object Modeling System 3 (OMS3), currently being developed by the USDA-ARS Agricultural Systems Research Unit and Colorado State University (Fort Collins, CO), provides a component-based environmental modeling framework which allows the implementation of single- or multi-process modules that can be developed and applied as custom-tailored model configurations. OMS3 as a “lightweight” modeling framework contains four primary foundations: modeling resources (e.g., components) annotated with modeling metadata; domain specific knowledge bases and ontologies; tools for calibration, sensitivity analysis, and model optimization; and methods for model integration and performance scalability. The core is able to manage modeling resources and development tools for model and simulation creation, execution, evaluation, and documentation. OMS3 is based on the Java platform but is highly interoperable with C, C++, and FORTRAN on all major operating systems and architectures. The ARS Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) Watershed Assessment Study (WAS) Project Plan provides detailed descriptions of ongoing research studies at 14 benchmark watersheds in the United States. In order to satisfy the requirements of CEAP WAS Objective 5 (“develop and verify regional watershed models that quantify environmental outcomes of conservation practices in major agricultural regions”), a new watershed model development approach was initiated to take advantage of OMS3 modeling framework capabilities. Specific objectives of this study were to: 1) disaggregate and refactor various agroecosystem models (e.g., J2K-S, SWAT, WEPP) and implement hydrological, N dynamics, and crop growth science components under OMS3, 2) assemble a new modular watershed scale model for fully-distributed transfer of water and N loading between land units and stream channels, and 3) evaluate the accuracy and applicability of the modular watershed model for estimating stream flow and N dynamics. The

  7. Application of experimental soil erosion models (USLE, RUSLE) in Jordan: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramzi, A. A.; Ayu, A. W.; Mohm, A. A.; Fahmi, R. M.; Ibrahim, O. M.

    2017-09-01

    required to be utilised essentially as screening devices in coordinated reviews, arrive asset appraisals would request expanded precision in the measurement of disintegration rates in a spatial and fleeting setting. On the off chance, the necessities can be propose, for instance the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) can be required to discover expanded application in delivering quantitative appraisals of soil erosion and residue yield in Jordan.

  8. Contractual Efficiency of PPP Infrastructure Projects: An Incomplete Contract Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Shi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses the contractual efficiency of public-private partnership (PPP infrastructure projects, with a focus on two financial aspects: the nonrecourse principal and incompleteness of debt contracts. The nonrecourse principal releases the sponsoring companies from the debt contract when the special purpose vehicle (SPV established by the sponsoring companies falls into default. Consequently, all obligations under the debt contract are limited to the liability of the SPV following its default. Because the debt contract is incomplete, a renegotiation of an additional loan between the bank and the SPV might occur to enable project continuation or liquidation, which in turn influences the SPV’s ex ante strategies (moral hazard. Considering these two financial features of PPP infrastructure projects, this study develops an incomplete contract model to investigate how the renegotiation triggers ex ante moral hazard and ex post inefficient liquidation. We derive equilibrium strategies under service fees endogenously determined via bidding and examine the effect of equilibrium strategies on contractual efficiency. Finally, we propose an optimal combination of a performance guarantee, the government’s termination right, and a service fee to improve the contractual efficiency of PPP infrastructure projects.

  9. A project management framework for enhanced productivity performance using building information modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Longhui Liao

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Although the Singapore government has mandated submissions of building plans in building information modelling (BIM format since July 2013, this does not yet seem to lead to enhanced productivity performance. BIM collaboration between designers and downstream contractors appears to remain inadequate. While many studies have been conducted on using BIM for better project outcomes, studies that relate BIM with the identification of non-value adding activities in the project lifecycle and the reduction of the resulting wastes are at infancy stage. This paper aims to propose a project management framework for enhancing the productivity of building projects in Singapore, which forms Phase I of an ongoing research project. A two-pronged approach is presented. Firstly, non-value adding activities in the current project delivery process that uses BIM partially in Singapore are identified by comparing the typical current process with full BIM-based processes; such activities are cut down after process transformation in terms of people, process, and technology. Secondly, time savings derived from reducing the wastes caused by these activities are quantified. The proposed framework was validated by a case study of a local residential project. It was concluded that this framework provides a valuable tool for project teams to enhance productivity performance.

  10. Review of the groundwater flow modelling of the Swiss Project Gewaehr

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, P.C.; Jackson, C.P.; Herbert, A.W.; Atkinson, R.

    1986-02-01

    The authors review the hydrogeological modelling work undertaken by NAGRA (National Co-operative for the Storage of Radioactive Waste) for Project Gewahr (Guarantee). The FEM301 computer code that was used by NAGRA, their general approach to flow simulation and the specific finite-element models employed are all discussed; and the results of a verification are presented using the authors' own computer code NAMMU. Recommendations for improvements in the NAGRA modelling and for areas of future work are made. (author)

  11. Changes in precipitation extremes projected by a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akio Kitoh

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available High-resolution modeling is necessary to project weather and climate extremes and their future changes under global warming. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is able to reproduce climate fields as well as regional-scale phenomena such as monsoonal rainfall, tropical and extratropical cyclones, and heavy precipitation. This 20-km mesh model is applied to project future changes in weather and climate extremes at the end of the 21st century with four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST changes: one with the mean SST changes by the 28 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-8.5 scenario, and the other three obtained from a cluster analysis, in which tropical SST anomalies derived from the 28 CMIP5 models were grouped. Here we focus on future changes in regional precipitation and its extremes. Various precipitation indices averaged over the Twenty-two regional land domains are calculated. Heavy precipitation indices (maximum 5-day precipitation total and maximum 1-day precipitation total increase in all regional domains, even where mean precipitation decrease (Southern Africa, South Europe/Mediterranean, Central America. South Asia is the domain of the largest extreme precipitation increase. In some domains, different SST patterns result in large precipitation changes, possibly related to changes in large-scale circulations in the tropical Pacific.

  12. Verification of Electromagnetic Physics Models for Parallel Computing Architectures in the GeantV Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amadio, G.; et al.

    2017-11-22

    An intensive R&D and programming effort is required to accomplish new challenges posed by future experimental high-energy particle physics (HEP) programs. The GeantV project aims to narrow the gap between the performance of the existing HEP detector simulation software and the ideal performance achievable, exploiting latest advances in computing technology. The project has developed a particle detector simulation prototype capable of transporting in parallel particles in complex geometries exploiting instruction level microparallelism (SIMD and SIMT), task-level parallelism (multithreading) and high-level parallelism (MPI), leveraging both the multi-core and the many-core opportunities. We present preliminary verification results concerning the electromagnetic (EM) physics models developed for parallel computing architectures within the GeantV project. In order to exploit the potential of vectorization and accelerators and to make the physics model effectively parallelizable, advanced sampling techniques have been implemented and tested. In this paper we introduce a set of automated statistical tests in order to verify the vectorized models by checking their consistency with the corresponding Geant4 models and to validate them against experimental data.

  13. The Palouse Basin Participatory Model Pilot Project: A Participatory Approach to Bi-state Groundwater Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beall, A.; Fiedler, F.; Boll, J.; Cosens, B.; Harris, C.

    2008-12-01

    In March 2008, The University of Idaho Waters of the West, the Palouse Basin Aquifer Committee and its Citizen Advisory Group undertook a pilot project to explore the use of participatory modeling to assist with water resource management decisions. The Palouse basin supplies Moscow, Idaho, Pullman, Washington, and surrounding communities with high quality groundwater. However, water levels in the major aquifer systems have been declining since records have been kept. Solutions are complicated by jurisdictional considerations and limited alternatives for supply. We hope that by using a participatory approach major conflicts will be avoided. Group system dynamics modeling has been used for various environmental concerns such as air quality, biological management, water quality and quantity. These models create a nexus of science, policy, and economic and social concerns, which enhances discussion of issues surrounding the use of natural resources. Models may be developed into educational and or decision support tools which can be used to assist with planning processes. The long-term goal of the Palouse basin project is to develop such a model. The pilot project participants include hydrologists, facility operators, policy makers and local citizens. The model they have developed integrates issues such as scientific uncertainty, groundwater volumes, and potential conservation measures and costs. Preliminary results indicate that participants are satisfied with the approach and are looking to use the model for education and to help direct potential research. We will present the results of the pilot project, including the developed model and insights from the process.

  14. The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stott, Peter; Good, Peter; Jones, Gareth; Gillett, Nathan; Hawkins, Ed

    2013-01-01

    Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming. (letter)

  15. Hydrodynamic Modeling Analysis to Support Nearshore Restoration Projects in a Changing Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaoqing Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available To re-establish the intertidal wetlands with full tidal exchange and improve salmonid rearing habitat in the Skagit River estuary, State of Washington, USA, a diked agriculture farm land along the Skagit Bay front is proposed to be restored to a fully functional tidal wetland. The complex and dynamic Skagit River estuarine system calls for the need of a multi-facet and multi-dimensional analysis using observed data, numerical and analytical methods. To assist the feasibility study of the restoration project, a hydrodynamic modeling analysis was conducted using a high-resolution unstructured-grid coastal ocean model to evaluate the hydrodynamic response to restoration alternatives and to provide guidance to the engineering design of a new levee in the restoration site. A set of parameters were defined to quantify the hydrodynamic response of the nearshore restoration project, such as inundation area, duration of inundation, water depth and salinity of the inundated area. To assist the design of the new levee in the restoration site, the maximum water level near the project site was estimated with consideration of extreme high tide, wind-induced storm surge, significant wave height and future sea-level rise based on numerical model results and coastal engineering calculation.

  16. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-01-01

    The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project ...

  17. The Model of Lake Operation in Water Transfer Projects Based on the Theory of Water- right

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi-peng, Yan; Chao, Liu; Fang-ping, Tang

    the lake operation is a very important content in Water Transfer Projects. The previous studies have not any related to water-right and water- price previous. In this paper, water right is divided into three parts, one is initialization waterright, another is by investment, and the third is government's water- right re-distribution. The water-right distribution model is also build. After analyzing the cost in water transfer project, a model and computation method for the capacity price as well as quantity price is proposed. The model of lake operation in water transfer projects base on the theory of water- right is also build. The simulation regulation for the lake was carried out by using historical data and Genetic Algorithms. Water supply and impoundment control line of the lake was proposed. The result can be used by south to north water transfer projects.

  18. The NASA Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (NASA STORM) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Christopher J.; Gatlin, Patrick N.; Lang, Timothy J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Bailey, Jeffrey; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2016-01-01

    The NASA Severe Storm Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling(NASA STORM) project enhanced NASA’s severe weather research capabilities, building upon existing Earth Science expertise at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). During this project, MSFC extended NASA’s ground-based lightning detection capacity to include a readily deployable lightning mapping array (LMA). NASA STORM also enabled NASA’s Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) to add convection allowing ensemble modeling to its portfolio of regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) capabilities. As a part of NASA STORM, MSFC developed new open-source capabilities for analyzing and displaying weather radar observations integrated from both research and operational networks. These accomplishments enabled by NASA STORM are a step towards enhancing NASA’s capabilities for studying severe weather and positions them for any future NASA related severe storm field campaigns.

  19. Incorporating socio-environmental considerations into project assessment models using multi-criteria analysis: A case study of Sri Lankan hydropower projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morimoto, Risako

    2013-01-01

    Before commissioning any energy projects, conducting robust assessments of different options in terms of their economic and socio-environmental impacts is important for successful project implementation. Yet, there is currently a lack of tools that simultaneously assess sustainability impacts; instead, they are often investigated separately, which gives decision makers somehow disintegrated information. Thus the main objective of this study is to examine how to incorporate socio-environmental considerations into project assessment models. The multi-criteria analysis is applied to the case study of Sri Lankan hydropower projects as an illustrative example. The estimated quantitative relationship between economic, environmental and social impacts of hydropower development is presented in this study. Such estimation, using sustainability indicators of hydropower projects, enables us to understand marginal trade-offs among economic, environmental and social objectives of hydropower development. Hence, this would provide an overview of potential impacts of different scenarios that are designed to be implemented and indicate an optimum mix of hydropower generation. - Highlights: • This study provides an effective hydropower project evaluation method using the MCA. • The proposed tool shows the quantitative relationship explicitly. • Marginal trade-offs between sustainability objectives are presented

  20. Marker encoded fringe projection profilometry for efficient 3D model acquisition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budianto, B; Lun, P K D; Hsung, Tai-Chiu

    2014-11-01

    This paper presents a novel marker encoded fringe projection profilometry (FPP) scheme for efficient 3-dimensional (3D) model acquisition. Traditional FPP schemes can introduce large errors to the reconstructed 3D model when the target object has an abruptly changing height profile. For the proposed scheme, markers are encoded in the projected fringe pattern to resolve the ambiguities in the fringe images due to that problem. Using the analytic complex wavelet transform, the marker cue information can be extracted from the fringe image, and is used to restore the order of the fringes. A series of simulations and experiments have been carried out to verify the proposed scheme. They show that the proposed method can greatly improve the accuracy over the traditional FPP schemes when reconstructing the 3D model of objects with abruptly changing height profile. Since the scheme works directly in our recently proposed complex wavelet FPP framework, it enjoys the same properties that it can be used in real time applications for color objects.

  1. Models of Charity Donations and Project Funding in Social Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojciechowski, Adam

    One of the key fundaments of building a society is common interest or shared aims of the group members. This research work is a try to analyze web-based services oriented towards money collection for various social and charity projects. The phenomenon of social founding is worth a closer look at because its success strongly depends on the ability to build an ad-hoc or persistent groups of people sharing their believes and willing to support external institutions or individuals. The paper presents a review of money collection sites, various models of donation and money collection process as well as ways how the projects' results are reported to their founders. There is also a proposal of money collection service, where donators are not charged until total declared help overheads required resources to complete the project. The risk of missing real donations for declared payments, after the collection is closed, can be assessed and minimized by building a social network.

  2. Symmetry-projected variational approach to the one-dimensional Hubbard model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmid, K.W.; Dahm, T.; Margueron, J.; Muether, H.

    2005-01-01

    We apply a variational method devised for the nuclear many-body problem to the one-dimensional Hubbard model with nearest neighbor hopping and periodic boundary conditions. The test wave function consist for each state out of a single Hartree-Fock determinant mixing all the sites (or momenta) as well as the spin projections of the electrons. Total spin and linear momentum are restored by projection methods before the variation. It is demonstrated that this approach reproduces the results of exact diagonalizations for half-filled N=12 and N=14 lattices not only for the energies and occupation numbers of the ground but also of the lowest excited states rather well. Furthermore, a system of ten electrons in an N=12 lattice is investigated and, finally, an N=30 lattice is studied. In addition to energies and occupation numbers we present the spectral functions computed with the help of the symmetry-projected wave functions as well

  3. A Decision Model Assessing the Owner and Contractor’s Conflict Behaviors in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangdong Wu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Considering the effects of the contractor’s conflict behaviors on the project benefit, a decision model between the owner and contractor’s conflict behaviors in construction projects was constructed using the principal-agent theory and game theory. The model was analyzed under nonconflicting and conflicting conditions, and a numerical simulation and example analysis were proposed to verify the constructed model’s conclusion. The results showed that the effort levels of the owner and contractor not only relate to benefit-sharing coefficient and effort outcome coefficient but also depend on the contractor’s ability of converting the conflict into benefit and the loss caused by conflict behaviors. A higher ability of converting conflicts into benefits and lower levels of the loss caused by conflict behaviors for the contractor lead to lower levels of the net benefit of the owner, conversely higher levels of the net benefit of the contractor. Balancing the contractor’s ability of converting conflicts into benefits and the loss caused by conflict behaviors lead to a more reasonable risk allocation between the owner and contractor, improving the effort level and net benefit. To add value to the construction project, the owner should establish an impartial and reasonable benefit-sharing mechanism, optimize the owner and contractor’s resource arrangement, maximize the positive effect of conflict on project benefits, and avoid the negative effect of conflict. Few studies to date have investigated the effects of conflict behaviors on project benefits in terms of modeling and simulation in construction projects. As such, this study bridges this gap and contributes significant theoretical and practical insights about managing conflict behaviors in an interorganizational context, thus enhancing performance in construction projects.

  4. Spatial regression methods capture prediction uncertainty in species distribution model projections through time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan K. Swanson; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Andrew O. Finley; James H. Thorne; Michael K. Schwartz

    2013-01-01

    The uncertainty associated with species distribution model (SDM) projections is poorly characterized, despite its potential value to decision makers. Error estimates from most modelling techniques have been shown to be biased due to their failure to account for spatial autocorrelation (SAC) of residual error. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) have the ability to...

  5. A Community-University Exchange Project Modeled after Europe's Science Shops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tryon, Elizabeth; Ross, J. Ashleigh

    2012-01-01

    This article describes a pilot project of the Morgridge Center for Public Service at the University of Wisconsin-Madison for a new structure for community-based learning and research. It is based on the European-derived science shop model for democratizing campus-community partnerships using shared values of mutual respect and validation of…

  6. The Durham elementary particle data bank, data analysis and model comparison project

    CERN Document Server

    Gault, F D; Chadwick, B; Cooper, C S

    1973-01-01

    In comparing theoretical models with data the first problem encountered is the retrieval of data from published sources and its storage in such a way as to make it readily accessible. The second is to implement programs which check the data for consistency and any recurring characteristics. The third is to produce an efficiently written program to compare the theoretical model with the data, the program being written as a function of N parameters so that it can be coupled to a minimizing program such as CERN MINUIT. Between each step, interface, retrieval and storage problems arise. The authors discuss the organization of the Durham project, the Data Bank software and retrieval techniques and the integration of model independent software with the Data Bank. This project is being carried out on the Northumbrian Universities Multiple Access Computer (NUMAC) an IBM 360 /67 operating under the Michigan Terminal System (MTS). (10 refs).

  7. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Hydrogeological modelling. Final Report - Volume 6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Townley, L.R.; Trefry, M.G.; Barr, A.D.; Braumiller, S.

    1992-01-01

    This volume describes hydrogeological modelling carried out as part of the Alligator Rivers Analogue Project. Hydrogeology has played a key integrating role in the Project, largely because water movement is believed to have controlled the evolution of the Koongarra uranium Orebody and therefore affects field observations of all types at all scales. Aquifer testing described uses the concept of transmissivity in its interpretation of aquifer response to pumping. The concept of an aquifer, a layer transmitting significant quantities of water in a mainly horizontal direction, seems hard to accept in an environment as heterogeneous as that at Koongarra. But modelling of aquifers both in one dimension and two dimensionally in plan has contributed significantly to our understanding of the site. A one-dimensional model with three layers (often described as a quasi two dimensional model) was applied to flow between the Fault and Koongarra Creek. Being a transient model, this model was able to show that reverse flows can indeed occur back towards the Fault, but only if there is distributed recharge over the orebody as well as a mechanism for the Fault, or a region near the Fault, to remove water from the simulated cross-section. The model also showed clearly that the response of the three-layered system, consisting of a highly weathered zone, a fractured transmissive zone and a less conductive lower schist zone, is governed mainly by the transmissivity and storage coefficient of the middle layer. The storage coefficient of the higher layer has little effect. A two-dimensional model in plan used a description of anisotropy to show that reverse flows can also occur even without a conducting Fault. Modelling of a three-dimensional region using discrete fractures showed that it is certainly possible to simulate systems like that observed at Koongarra, but that large amounts of data are probably needed to obtain realistic descriptions of the fracture networks. Inverse modelling

  8. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Hydrogeological modelling. Final Report - Volume 6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Townley, L R; Trefry, M G; Barr, A D [CSIRO Div of Water Resources, PO Wembley, WA (Australia); Braumiller, S [Univ of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States). Dept of Hydrology and Water Resources; Kawanishi, M [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko-Shi, Chiba-Ken (Japan); and others

    1993-12-31

    This volume describes hydrogeological modelling carried out as part of the Alligator Rivers Analogue Project. Hydrogeology has played a key integrating role in the Project, largely because water movement is believed to have controlled the evolution of the Koongarra uranium Orebody and therefore affects field observations of all types at all scales. Aquifer testing described uses the concept of transmissivity in its interpretation of aquifer response to pumping. The concept of an aquifer, a layer transmitting significant quantities of water in a mainly horizontal direction, seems hard to accept in an environment as heterogeneous as that at Koongarra. But modelling of aquifers both in one dimension and two dimensionally in plan has contributed significantly to our understanding of the site. A one-dimensional model with three layers (often described as a quasi two dimensional model) was applied to flow between the Fault and Koongarra Creek. Being a transient model, this model was able to show that reverse flows can indeed occur back towards the Fault, but only if there is distributed recharge over the orebody as well as a mechanism for the Fault, or a region near the Fault, to remove water from the simulated cross-section. The model also showed clearly that the response of the three-layered system, consisting of a highly weathered zone, a fractured transmissive zone and a less conductive lower schist zone, is governed mainly by the transmissivity and storage coefficient of the middle layer. The storage coefficient of the higher layer has little effect. A two-dimensional model in plan used a description of anisotropy to show that reverse flows can also occur even without a conducting Fault. Modelling of a three-dimensional region using discrete fractures showed that it is certainly possible to simulate systems like that observed at Koongarra, but that large amounts of data are probably needed to obtain realistic descriptions of the fracture networks. Inverse modelling

  9. The TARGET project in Tuscany: the first disease management model of a regional project for the prevention of hip re-fractures in the elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piscitelli, Prisco; Brandi, Maria Luisa; Nuti, Ranuccio; Rizzuti, Carla; Giorni, Loredano; Giovannini, Valtere; Metozzi, Alessia; Merlotti, Daniela

    2010-09-01

    The official inquiry on osteoporosis in Italy, promoted by the Italian Senate in 2002 concluded that proper preventive strategies should be adopted at regional level in order to prevent osteoporotic fractures. Tuscany is the first Italian region who has promoted an official program (the TARGET project) aimed to reduce osteoporotic fractures by ensuring adequate treatment to all people aged ≥65 years old who experience a hip fragility fracture. this paper provides information concerning the implementation of TARGET project in Tuscany, assuming that it may represent an useful model for similar experiences to be promoted in other Italian Regions and across Europe. we have examined the model proposed for the regional program, and we have particularly analyzed the in-hospital and post-hospitalization path of hip fractured patients aged >65 years old in Tuscany after the adoption of TARGET project by Tuscany healthcare system and during its ongoing start-up phase. orthopaedic surgeons have been gradually involved in the project and are increasingly fulfilling all the clinical prescriptions and recommendations provided in the project protocol. Different forms of cooperation between orthopaedic surgeons and other clinical specialists have been adopted at each hospital for the treatment of hip fractured elderly patients. GPs involvement needs to be fostered both at regional and local level. The effort of Tuscany region to cope with hip fractures suffered from elderly people must be acknowledged as an interesting way of addressing this critical health problem. Specific preventive strategies modelled on the Tuscany TARGET project should be implemented in other Italian regions.

  10. Cardiac cell modelling: Observations from the heart of the cardiac physiome project

    KAUST Repository

    Fink, Martin; Niederer, Steven A.; Cherry, Elizabeth M.; Fenton, Flavio H.; Koivumä ki, Jussi T.; Seemann, Gunnar; Thul, Rü diger; Zhang, Henggui; Sachse, Frank B.; Beard, Dan; Crampin, Edmund J.; Smith, Nicolas P.

    2011-01-01

    In this manuscript we review the state of cardiac cell modelling in the context of international initiatives such as the IUPS Physiome and Virtual Physiological Human Projects, which aim to integrate computational models across scales and physics. In particular we focus on the relationship between experimental data and model parameterisation across a range of model types and cellular physiological systems. Finally, in the context of parameter identification and model reuse within the Cardiac Physiome, we suggest some future priority areas for this field. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  11. Data-driven modelling of structured populations a practical guide to the integral projection model

    CERN Document Server

    Ellner, Stephen P; Rees, Mark

    2016-01-01

    This book is a “How To” guide for modeling population dynamics using Integral Projection Models (IPM) starting from observational data. It is written by a leading research team in this area and includes code in the R language (in the text and online) to carry out all computations. The intended audience are ecologists, evolutionary biologists, and mathematical biologists interested in developing data-driven models for animal and plant populations. IPMs may seem hard as they involve integrals. The aim of this book is to demystify IPMs, so they become the model of choice for populations structured by size or other continuously varying traits. The book uses real examples of increasing complexity to show how the life-cycle of the study organism naturally leads to the appropriate statistical analysis, which leads directly to the IPM itself. A wide range of model types and analyses are presented, including model construction, computational methods, and the underlying theory, with the more technical material in B...

  12. Development of generic key performance indicators for PMBOK® using a 3D project integration model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Langston

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Since Martin Barnes’ so-called ‘iron triangle’ circa 1969, much debate has occurred over how best to describe the fundamental constraints that underpin project success. This paper develops a 3D project integration model for PMBOK® comprising core constraints of scope, cost, time and risk as a basis to propose six generic key performance indicators (KPIs that articulate successful project delivery. These KPIs are defined as value, efficiency, speed, innovation, complexity and impact and can each be measured objectively as ratios of the core constraints. An overall KPI (denoted as s3/ctr is also derived. The aim in this paper is to set out the case for such a model and to demonstrate how it can be employed to assess the performance of project teams in delivering successful outcomes at various stages in the project life cycle. As part of the model’s development, a new PMBOK® knowledge area concerning environmental management is advanced.

  13. Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme reinfall projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    are independent. This study investigates the validity of this assumption and its effects on the estimated probabilistic projections of the changes in the 95% quantile of wet days. The methodology is divided in two main parts. First, the interdependency of the ENSEMBLES RCMs is estimated using the methodology...... developed by Pennell and Reichler (2011). The results show that the projections from the ENSEMBLES RCMs cannot be assumed independent. This result is then used to estimate the uncertainty in climate model projections. A Bayesian approach has been developed using the procedure suggested by Tebaldi et al...

  14. Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme rainfall projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer, M. A.; Rosbjerg, Dan; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2017-01-01

    are independent. This study investigates the validity of this assumption and its effects on the estimated probabilistic projections of the changes in the 95% quantile of wet days. The methodology is divided in two main parts. First, the interdependency of the ENSEMBLES RCMs is estimated using the methodology...... developed by Pennell and Reichler (2011). The results show that the projections from the ENSEMBLES RCMs cannot be assumed independent. This result is then used to estimate the uncertainty in climate model projections. A Bayesian approach has been developed using the procedure suggested by Tebaldi et al...

  15. The 12-foot pressure wind tunnel restoration project model support systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasaki, Glen E.

    1992-01-01

    The 12 Foot Pressure Wind Tunnel is a variable density, low turbulence wind tunnel that operates at subsonic speeds, and up to six atmospheres total pressure. The restoration of this facility is of critical importance to the future of the U.S. aerospace industry. As part of this project, several state of the art model support systems are furnished to provide an optimal balance between aerodynamic and operational efficiency parameters. Two model support systems, the Rear Strut Model Support, and the High Angle of Attack Model Support are discussed. This paper covers design parameters, constraints, development, description, and component selection.

  16. Supporting Collaborative Model and Data Service Development and Deployment with DevOps

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, O.

    2016-12-01

    Adopting DevOps practices for model service development and deployment enables a community to engage in service-oriented modeling and data management. The Cloud Services Integration Platform (CSIP) developed the last 5 years at Colorado State University provides for collaborative integration of environmental models into scalable model and data services as a micro-services platform with API and deployment infrastructure. Originally developed to support USDA natural resource applications, it proved suitable for a wider range of applications in the environmental modeling domain. While extending its scope and visibility it became apparent community integration and adequate work flow support through the full model development and application cycle drove successful outcomes.DevOps provide best practices, tools, and organizational structures to optimize the transition from model service development to deployment by minimizing the (i) operational burden and (ii) turnaround time for modelers. We have developed and implemented a methodology to fully automate a suite of applications for application lifecycle management, version control, continuous integration, container management, and container scaling to enable model and data service developers in various institutions to collaboratively build, run, deploy, test, and scale services within minutes.To date more than 160 model and data services are available for applications in hydrology (PRMS, Hydrotools, CFA, ESP), water and wind erosion prediction (WEPP, WEPS, RUSLE2), soil quality trends (SCI, STIR), water quality analysis (SWAT-CP, WQM, CFA, AgES-W), stream degradation assessment (SWAT-DEG), hydraulics (cross-section), and grazing management (GRAS). In addition, supporting data services include soil (SSURGO), ecological site (ESIS), climate (CLIGEN, WINDGEN), land management and crop rotations (LMOD), and pesticides (WQM), developed using this workflow automation and decentralized governance.

  17. Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation Historical and Projected Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamarque, J.-F.; Dentener, F.; McConnell, J.; Ro, C.-U.; Shaw, M.; Vet, R.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Doherty, R.; Faluvegi, G.; hide

    2013-01-01

    We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multi-model mean deposition of 50 Tg(N) yr1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching 1300 mg(N) m2 yr1 averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 3050 larger than the values in any region currently (2000). The new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

  18. Challenges of the expansive use of Building Information Modeling (BIM in construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannele Kerosuo

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Building information modeling (BIM is an emerging modeling technology which challenges existing work procedures and practices in the construction industry. In this article we study the challenges, problems and potential expansions of BIM as a tool in the design, construction and operation of buildings. For this purpose the interfaces between different parties are examined in Finnish construction projects. The methodological approach of the study is cultural-historical activity theory, according to which a new artifact becomes a mediating instrument when the participatory subjects reconfigure the entire activity. The implementation of BIM is now spreading from the design activity to other phases of the construction projects, but its use is still limited in the projects' other three interfaces. BIM is an evolving set of software developed for various purposes which is locally 'combined' to fit the circumstances and capabilities of the stakeholders of the construction process.

  19. Multi-stage IT project evaluation: The flexibility value obtained by implementing and resolving Berk, Green and Naik (2004) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abid, Fathi; Guermazi, Dorra

    2009-11-01

    In this paper, we evaluate a multi-stage information technology investment project, by implementing and resolving Berk, Green and Naik's (2004) model, which takes into account specific features of IT projects and considers the real option to suspend investment at each stage. We present a particular case of the model where the project value is the solution of an optimal control problem with a single state variable. In this case, the model is more intuitive and tractable. The case study confirms the practical potential of the model and highlights the importance of the real-option approach compared to classical discounted cash flow techniques in the valuation of IT projects.

  20. Embedding Systems Thinking into EWB Project Planning and Development: Assessing the Utility of a Group Model Building Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimberly Pugel

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Amongst growing sociotechnical efforts, engineering students and professionals both in the international development sector and industry are challenged to approach projects more holistically to achieve project goals.  Engineering service learning organizations must similarly adapt their technological projects to consider varying cultural and economic structures, ensuring more resilient social progress within development efforts.  In practice, systems thinking approaches can be utilized to model the social, economic, political, and technological implications that influence the sustainability of an engineering project. This research assesses the utility of integrating systems thinking into Engineers Without Borders (EWB project planning and development, thereby improving project impact and more effectively engaging members.  At a workshop held at an EWB-USA 2016 Regional Conference, the authors presented a planning and evaluation framework that applies group model building with system dynamics to foster systems thinking through factor diagramming and analysis. To assess the added value of the framework for EWB project planning and development, extensive participant feedback was gathered and evaluated during the workshop and through an optional post-workshop survey.  Supported by thoughtful observations and feedback provided by the EWB members, the model building workshop appeared to help participants reveal and consider project complexities by both visually and quantitatively identifying key non-technical and technical factors that influence project sustainability.  Therefore, system dynamics applied in a group model building workshop offers a powerful supplement to traditional EWB project planning and assessment activities, providing a systems-based tool for EWB teams and partner communities to build capacity and create lasting change.

  1. A Model-Driven Visualization Tool for Use with Model-Based Systems Engineering Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trase, Kathryn; Fink, Eric

    2014-01-01

    Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) promotes increased consistency between a system's design and its design documentation through the use of an object-oriented system model. The creation of this system model facilitates data presentation by providing a mechanism from which information can be extracted by automated manipulation of model content. Existing MBSE tools enable model creation, but are often too complex for the unfamiliar model viewer to easily use. These tools do not yet provide many opportunities for easing into the development and use of a system model when system design documentation already exists. This study creates a Systems Modeling Language (SysML) Document Traceability Framework (SDTF) for integrating design documentation with a system model, and develops an Interactive Visualization Engine for SysML Tools (InVEST), that exports consistent, clear, and concise views of SysML model data. These exported views are each meaningful to a variety of project stakeholders with differing subjects of concern and depth of technical involvement. InVEST allows a model user to generate multiple views and reports from a MBSE model, including wiki pages and interactive visualizations of data. System data can also be filtered to present only the information relevant to the particular stakeholder, resulting in a view that is both consistent with the larger system model and other model views. Viewing the relationships between system artifacts and documentation, and filtering through data to see specialized views improves the value of the system as a whole, as data becomes information

  2. In modelling effects of global warming, invalid assumptions lead to unrealistic projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefevre, Sjannie; McKenzie, David J; Nilsson, Göran E

    2018-02-01

    In their recent Opinion, Pauly and Cheung () provide new projections of future maximum fish weight (W ∞ ). Based on criticism by Lefevre et al. (2017) they changed the scaling exponent for anabolism, d G . Here we find that changing both d G and the scaling exponent for catabolism, b, leads to the projection that fish may even become 98% smaller with a 1°C increase in temperature. This unrealistic outcome indicates that the current W ∞ is unlikely to be explained by the Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT) and, therefore, GOLT cannot be used as a mechanistic basis for model projections about fish size in a warmer world. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Projectables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Troels A.; Merritt, Timothy R.

    2017-01-01

    CNC cutting machines have become essential tools for designers and architects enabling rapid prototyping, model-building and production of high quality components. Designers often cut from new materials, discarding the irregularly shaped remains. We introduce ProjecTables, a visual augmented...... reality system for interactive packing of model parts onto sheet materials. ProjecTables enables designers to (re)use scrap materials for CNC cutting that would have been previously thrown away, at the same time supporting aesthetic choices related to wood grain, avoiding surface blemishes, and other...... relevant material properties. We conducted evaluations of ProjecTables with design students from Aarhus School of Architecture, demonstrating that participants could quickly and easily place and orient model parts reducing material waste. Contextual interviews and ideation sessions led to a deeper...

  4. Project management in practice : Evaluating a case project through project management theories

    OpenAIRE

    Uusitalo, Jenni

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis was to evaluate a case project and to study whether it was carried out in a correct manner; meaning that did the case project follow the project management models. In addition, part of the study was to determine what could have been improved in the management of the case project. The case project was about creating and launching a communication channel based on a social media service, on a blog platform called Tumblr, for Team Finland in Spain network. The network p...

  5. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H

    2016-12-01

    Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC

  6. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub

    2013-01-01

    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors

  7. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors.

  8. The longevity risk of the Dutch Actuarial Association’s projection model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F. Peters (Frederick); W.J. Nusselder (Wilma); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan)

    2012-01-01

    markdownabstractAccurate assessment of the risk that arises from further increases in life expectancy is crucial for the financial sector, in particular for pension funds and life insurance companies. The Dutch Actuarial Association presented a revised projection model in 2010, while in the same

  9. High-resolution global climate modelling: the UPSCALE project, a large-simulation campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Mizielinski

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk project constructed and ran an ensemble of HadGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model 3 atmosphere-only global climate simulations over the period 1985–2011, at resolutions of N512 (25 km, N216 (60 km and N96 (130 km as used in current global weather forecasting, seasonal prediction and climate modelling respectively. Alongside these present climate simulations a parallel ensemble looking at extremes of future climate was run, using a time-slice methodology to consider conditions at the end of this century. These simulations were primarily performed using a 144 million core hour, single year grant of computing time from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe in 2012, with additional resources supplied by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC and the Met Office. Almost 400 terabytes of simulation data were generated on the HERMIT supercomputer at the High Performance Computing Center Stuttgart (HLRS, and transferred to the JASMIN super-data cluster provided by the Science and Technology Facilities Council Centre for Data Archival (STFC CEDA for analysis and storage. In this paper we describe the implementation of the project, present the technical challenges in terms of optimisation, data output, transfer and storage that such a project involves and include details of the model configuration and the composition of the UPSCALE data set. This data set is available for scientific analysis to allow assessment of the value of model resolution in both present and potential future climate conditions.

  10. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of the City of Houston's 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA's Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  11. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database User's Guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.L.

    1993-10-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) specifically to address Hanford solid waste management issues. This document is one of a set of documents supporting the SWPM system and providing instructions in the use and maintenance of SWPM components. This manual contains instructions for using Version 1.4 of the SWPM database: system requirements and preparation, entering and maintaining data, and performing routine database functions. This document supports only those operations which are specific to SWPM database menus and functions and does not Provide instruction in the use of Paradox, the database management system in which the SWPM database is established

  12. Allocation of control rights in the PPP Project: a cooperative game model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yunhua; Feng, Jingchun; Yang, Shengtao

    2017-06-01

    Reasonable allocation of control rights is the key to the success of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects. PPP are services or ventures which are financed and operated through cooperation between governmental and private sector actors and which involve reasonable control rights sharing between these two partners. After professional firm with capital and technology as a shareholder participating in PPP project firms, the PPP project is diversified in participants and input resources. Meanwhile the allocation of control rights of PPP project tends to be complicated. According to the diversification of participants and input resources of PPP projects, the key participants are divided into professional firms and pure investors. Based on the cost of repurchase of different input resources in markets, the cooperative game relationship between these two parties is analyzed, on the basis of which the allocation model of the cooperative game for control rights is constructed to ensure optimum allocation ration of control rights and verify the share of control rights in proportion to the cost of repurchase.

  13. Feedforward and feedback projections of caudal belt and parabelt areas of auditory cortex: refining the hierarchical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy A Hackett

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Our working model of the primate auditory cortex recognizes three major regions (core, belt, parabelt, subdivided into thirteen areas. The connections between areas are topographically ordered in a manner consistent with information flow along two major anatomical axes: core-belt-parabelt and caudal-rostral. Remarkably, most of the connections supporting this model were revealed using retrograde tracing techniques. Little is known about laminar circuitry, as anterograde tracing of axon terminations has rarely been used. The purpose of the present study was to examine the laminar projections of three areas of auditory cortex, pursuant to analysis of all areas. The selected areas were: middle lateral belt (ML; caudomedial belt (CM; and caudal parabelt (CPB. Injections of anterograde tracers yielded data consistent with major features of our model, and also new findings that compel modifications. Results supporting the model were: 1 feedforward projection from ML and CM terminated in CPB; 2 feedforward projections from ML and CPB terminated in rostral areas of the belt and parabelt; and 3 feedback projections typified inputs to the core region from belt and parabelt. At odds with the model was the convergence of feedforward inputs into rostral medial belt from ML and CPB. This was unexpected since CPB is at a higher stage of the processing hierarchy, with mainly feedback projections to all other belt areas. Lastly, extending the model, feedforward projections from CM, ML, and CPB overlapped in the temporal parietal occipital area (TPO in the superior temporal sulcus, indicating significant auditory influence on sensory processing in this region. The combined results refine our working model and highlight the need to complete studies of the laminar inputs to all areas of auditory cortex. Their documentation is essential for developing informed hypotheses about the neurophysiological influences of inputs to each layer and area.

  14. Modelling gas migration in fractured rock. A contribution to the EU's PROGRESS project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humm, J.; Robinson, P.; Clark, K.

    2001-01-01

    To assess the performance of a waste repository, it is necessary to be able to predict the rates of gas generation and to understand and evaluate both the way the gas may disperse from the repository and any effects that might be associated with this dispersal. This document describes the modelling work carried out by QuantiSci on behalf of the UK Environment Agency, in conjunction with the CEC PROGRESS Project (Research into Gas Generation and Migration in Radioactive Waste Repository Systems) which has been carried out as part of the European Commission's IV th framework R and D programme. The project was under the PEGASUS (Projects on the Effects of GAS in Underground Storage facilities) umbrella. A review is provided of alternative conceptual models for the migration of gas through an initially water saturated fracture. A range of front or interface tracking methods for computing gas migration through a fracture is described: direct discretisation, marker particle, volume of fluids and level set methods. Volume of fluids methods are identified as the most appropriate approach for models of this sort. Subsequently, a description is given of the development of a model of gas injection into a single fracture in a portion of Borrowdale Volcanic Granite. The theoretical approach for the model is described in detail and the model compared to experimental results obtained for the real fracture. The experimental results of the CEC PROGRESS Project (obtained using Positron Emission Tomography) do not show particularly good agreement with the model results. However, there are strong indications that this is largely the result of uncertainties in the interpretation of the PET results. The experimental results are acknowledged to be extremely hard to interpret and the apparent negative gas thicknesses observed experimentally confirm this fact. Given the clearly critical dependence of the gas migration pathways on the aperture distribution, any discrepancies of this sort

  15. Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of Precipitation over Central Asia by CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, X.; Zhao, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Future changes in the annual cycle of the precipitation in central Asia (CA) were estimated based on the historical and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiments from 25 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observations, the historical (1979-1999) experiments showed that most models can capture the migration of rainfall centers, but remarkable discrepancies exist in the location and intensity of rainfall centers between simulations and observations. Considering the skill scores of precipitation and pattern correlations of circulations, which are closely related to the precipitation for each month, for the 25 models, the four best models (e.g., CanESM2, CMCC-CMS, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR) with relatively good performance were selected. The four models' ensemble mean indicated that the migration and location of the precipitation centers were better reproduced, except the intensity of the centers was overestimated, compared with the result that only considered precipitation. Based on the four best models' ensemble mean under RCP8.5 scenarios, precipitation was projected to increase dramatically over most of the CA region in the boreal cold seasons (November, December, January, February, March, April and May) with the maximum in December in the end of twenty-first century (2079-2099), and several positive centers were located in the Pamirs Plateau and the Tianshan Mountains. By contrast, the precipitation changes were weak in the boreal warm seasons (June, July, August, September and October), with a wet center located in the northern Himalayas. Furthermore, there remain some uncertainties in the projected precipitation regions and periods obtained by comparing models' ensemble results of this paper and the results of previous studies. These uncertainties should be investigated in future work.

  16. Project desk evaluation of a model project CPR/5/009 industrial scale irradiation of rice and other foodstuffs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-11-01

    The project CPR/5/009 was approved in 1993 as a model project. The project objective was to build an industrial food irradiation facility for high quality rice and other foodstuffs, with a processing capacity of 5000-9000 tonnes per year. This capacity is large compared to many other facilities of the same type elsewhere. The success of the project waste to be measured against the full utilization of the facility with an acceptable availability factor. Disbursements on Agency inputs up to the end of June 1996 were $294,716 and consisted of one 100 kCi Co-60 source, quality control equipment, bag heat sealers, one expert mission and 13.5 months of training abroad. The current budget is $323,870, following two programme changes. The total cost of the project was estimated at $1,331,300 with the Chinese Government providing the balance. The major conclusions of this evaluation are as follows: Initially, the Agency overestimated the project and business management experience of the counterpart, and consequently underestimated the extent of support required. Providing support to counterparts in facing the key challenges of project management and business operation must be considered by the Agency in future projects of this type. The counterpart institution is also encouraged to emphasize these management issues in order to maximize sustainable and cost-effective utilization of such facilities. A new operational plan has been prepared by the counterpart for 1996 through 1998 which identifies seven customers requiring treatment of a total of 1000 tonnes per year of cereal grains and 1500 tonnes per year of other foodstuffs. This plan reflects a change in overall emphasis from supporting food supply security to ensuring the safety of foodstuffs. It is not clear whether this plan will support operation of the facility at full capacity. The team in place to operate the facility also needs further strengthening. (author). Figs, tabs

  17. A Project Team Analysis Using Tuckman's Model of Small-Group Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natvig, Deborah; Stark, Nancy L

    2016-12-01

    Concerns about equitable workloads for nursing faculty have been well documented, yet a standardized system for workload management does not exist. A project team was challenged to establish an academic workload management system when two dissimilar universities were consolidated. Tuckman's model of small-group development was used as the framework for the analysis of processes and effectiveness of a workload project team. Agendas, notes, and meeting minutes were used as the primary sources of information. Analysis revealed the challenges the team encountered. Utilization of a team charter was an effective tool in guiding the team to become a highly productive group. Lessons learned from the analysis are discussed. Guiding a diverse group into a highly productive team is complex. The use of Tuckman's model of small-group development provided a systematic mechanism to review and understand group processes and tasks. [J Nurs Educ. 2016;55(12):675-681.]. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

  18. Using Model-Based Systems Engineering To Provide Artifacts for NASA Project Life-Cycle and Technical Reviews

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrott, Edith L.; Weiland, Karen J.

    2017-01-01

    The ability of systems engineers to use model-based systems engineering (MBSE) to generate self-consistent, up-to-date systems engineering products for project life-cycle and technical reviews is an important aspect for the continued and accelerated acceptance of MBSE. Currently, many review products are generated using labor-intensive, error-prone approaches based on documents, spreadsheets, and chart sets; a promised benefit of MBSE is that users will experience reductions in inconsistencies and errors. This work examines features of SysML that can be used to generate systems engineering products. Model elements, relationships, tables, and diagrams are identified for a large number of the typical systems engineering artifacts. A SysML system model can contain and generate most systems engineering products to a significant extent and this paper provides a guide on how to use MBSE to generate products for project life-cycle and technical reviews. The use of MBSE can reduce the schedule impact usually experienced for review preparation, as in many cases the review products can be auto-generated directly from the system model. These approaches are useful to systems engineers, project managers, review board members, and other key project stakeholders.

  19. Funding Medical Research Projects: Taking into Account Referees' Severity and Consistency through Many-Faceted Rasch Modeling of Projects' Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesio, Luigi; Simone, Anna; Grzeda, Mariuzs T; Ponzio, Michela; Dati, Gabriele; Zaratin, Paola; Perucca, Laura; Battaglia, Mario A

    2015-01-01

    The funding policy of research projects often relies on scores assigned by a panel of experts (referees). The non-linear nature of raw scores and the severity and inconsistency of individual raters may generate unfair numeric project rankings. Rasch measurement (many-facets version, MFRM) provides a valid alternative to scoring. MFRM was applied to the scores achieved by 75 research projects on multiple sclerosis sent in response to a previous annual call by FISM-Italian Foundation for Multiple Sclerosis. This allowed to simulate, a posteriori, the impact of MFRM on the funding scenario. The applications were each scored by 2 to 4 independent referees (total = 131) on a 10-item, 0-3 rating scale called FISM-ProQual-P. The rotation plan assured "connection" of all pairs of projects through at least 1 shared referee.The questionnaire fulfilled satisfactorily the stringent criteria of Rasch measurement for psychometric quality (unidimensionality, reliability and data-model fit). Arbitrarily, 2 acceptability thresholds were set at a raw score of 21/30 and at the equivalent Rasch measure of 61.5/100, respectively. When the cut-off was switched from score to measure 8 out of 18 acceptable projects had to be rejected, while 15 rejected projects became eligible for funding. Some referees, of various severity, were grossly inconsistent (z-std fit indexes less than -1.9 or greater than 1.9). The FISM-ProQual-P questionnaire seems a valid and reliable scale. MFRM may help the decision-making process for allocating funds to MS research projects but also in other fields. In repeated assessment exercises it can help the selection of reliable referees. Their severity can be steadily calibrated, thus obviating the need to connect them with other referees assessing the same projects.

  20. Integrated Vehicle Health Management Project-Modeling and Simulation for Wireless Sensor Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallett, Thomas M.; Mueller, Carl H.; Griner, James H., Jr.

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes the efforts in modeling and simulating electromagnetic transmission and reception as in a wireless sensor network through a realistic wing model for the Integrated Vehicle Health Management project at the Glenn Research Center. A computer model in a standard format for an S-3 Viking aircraft was obtained, converted to a Microwave Studio software format, and scaled to proper dimensions in Microwave Studio. The left wing portion of the model was used with two antenna models, one transmitting and one receiving, to simulate radio frequency transmission through the wing. Transmission and reception results were inconclusive.

  1. Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ricke, K L; Caldeira, K; Orr, J C; Schneider, K

    2013-01-01

    Coral reefs are among the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world. Today they are threatened by numerous stressors, including warming ocean waters and coastal pollution. Here we focus on the implications of ocean acidification for the open ocean chemistry surrounding coral reefs, as estimated from earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). We project risks to reefs in the context of three potential aragonite saturation (Ωa) thresholds. We find that in preindustrial times, 99.9% of reefs adjacent to open ocean in the CMIP5 ensemble were located in regions with Ωa > 3.5. Under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), every coral reef considered will be surrounded by water with Ωa 2 emissions abatement, the Ωa threshold for reefs is critical to projecting their fate. Our results indicate that to maintain a majority of reefs surrounded by waters with Ωa > 3.5 to the end of the century, very aggressive reductions in emissions are required. The spread of Ωa projections across models in the CMIP5 ensemble is narrow, justifying a high level of confidence in these results. (letter)

  2. FEM-model of the Naesliden Mine: requirements and limitations at the outset of the project. [Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krauland, N.

    1980-05-15

    The design of any instrument depends entirely on the application planned for the instrument. This applies also to the FEM-representation of the Naesliden Mine. With reference to the aims of the project the requirements on the model are outlined with regard to - simulation of the mining process - modelling with special reference to the aims of the project - comparison of FEM-results with in situ observations to determine the validity of the model. The proposed model is two-dimensional and incorporates joint elements to simulate the weak alteration zone between orebody and sidewall rock. The remainder of the model exhibits linear elastic behaviour. This model is evaluated with respect to the given requirements. The limitations of the chosen model are outlined.

  3. Managing multidisciplinary model based water management projects, 7th International Confeence on HydroInmatics, Nice France, 4-8 September 2006

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholten, H.; Kassahun, A.; Refsgaard, J.C.

    2006-01-01

    Multidisciplinary model-based water management projects have to follow a complex process and may encounter many problems, related to miscommunication, malpractice, misuse of the model, insufficient problem knowledge and overselling of model capabilities. This leads to model projects, which are not

  4. Development of Export Control Comprehensive Management Model for Nuclear Power Plants and Others Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Chansuh; Seo, Hana; Choi, Sundo [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation And Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    It is required that there are lots of managements of care and concern if the project contains strategic items such as NPPs. The Korean nuclear industry and its related companies, such as the Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power (KHNP), are promoting greater exports of NPPs. It is likely that Korea will export more this technology to newcomer states in the future. As a result, the ROK has been improving its export control management system for NPPs. In keeping with this national effort, Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation And Control (KINAC) developed comprehensive export control management model for NPPs and other projects, in preparation for this projected growth in the industry. This model also applies to the nuclear export case of the UAE, aims to manage the project from bidding to the end of the contract. The recent Export Licensing of Nuclear Facility Technology was reflected in the Notice on Export and Import of Strategic Items in January 2014. Through this license, the large-scale project legislation framework was established. It can also minimize nonproliferation concerns of the international community through strict management. It is expected that the Korea will be able to enhance transparency and secure the nuclear use, while meeting nonproliferation purpose.

  5. Ranking environmental projects model based on multicriteria decision-making and the weight sensitivity analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    With the fast growth of Chinese economic,more and more capital will be invested in environmental projects.How to select the environmental investment projects(alternatives)for obtaining the best environmental quality and economic benefits is an important problem for the decision makers.The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision-making model to rank a finite number of alternatives with several and sometimes conflicting criteria.A model for ranking the projects of municipal sewage treatment plants is proposed by using exports' information and the data of the real projects.And,the ranking result is given based on the PROMETHEE method. Furthermore,by means of the concept of the weight stability intervals(WSI),the sensitivity of the ranking results to the size of criteria values and the change of weights value of criteria are discussed.The result shows that some criteria,such as"proportion of benefit to projoct cost",will influence the ranking result of alternatives very strong while others not.The influence are not only from the value of criterion but also from the changing the weight of criterion.So,some criteria such as"proportion of benefit to projoct cost" are key critera for ranking the projects. Decision makers must be cautious to them.

  6. Development of Export Control Comprehensive Management Model for Nuclear Power Plants and Others Projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chansuh; Seo, Hana; Choi, Sundo

    2014-01-01

    It is required that there are lots of managements of care and concern if the project contains strategic items such as NPPs. The Korean nuclear industry and its related companies, such as the Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power (KHNP), are promoting greater exports of NPPs. It is likely that Korea will export more this technology to newcomer states in the future. As a result, the ROK has been improving its export control management system for NPPs. In keeping with this national effort, Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation And Control (KINAC) developed comprehensive export control management model for NPPs and other projects, in preparation for this projected growth in the industry. This model also applies to the nuclear export case of the UAE, aims to manage the project from bidding to the end of the contract. The recent Export Licensing of Nuclear Facility Technology was reflected in the Notice on Export and Import of Strategic Items in January 2014. Through this license, the large-scale project legislation framework was established. It can also minimize nonproliferation concerns of the international community through strict management. It is expected that the Korea will be able to enhance transparency and secure the nuclear use, while meeting nonproliferation purpose

  7. Projects Delay Factors of Saudi Arabia Construction Industry Using PLS-SEM Path Modelling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Rahman Ismail

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the development of PLS-SEM Path Model of delay factors of Saudi Arabia construction industry focussing on Mecca City. The model was developed and assessed using SmartPLS v3.0 software and it consists of 37 factors/manifests in 7 groups/independent variables and one dependent variable which is delay of the construction projects. The model was rigorously assessed at measurement and structural components and the outcomes found that the model has achieved the required threshold values. At structural level of the model, among the seven groups, the client and consultant group has the highest impact on construction delay with path coefficient β-value of 0.452 and the project management and contract administration group is having the least impact to the construction delay with β-value of 0.016. The overall model has moderate explaining power ability with R2 value of 0.197 for Saudi Arabia construction industry representation. This model will able to assist practitioners in Mecca city to pay more attention in risk analysis for potential construction delay.

  8. REPNET: project scheduling and workflow optimization for Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Alvise Bragadin

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Project planning and control are core processes for construction management. In practice project planning is achieved by network - based techniques like Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM.Indeed many researchers and practitioners claims that networking techniques as such do not provide a suitable model for construction projects. Construction process modeling should incorporate for specific features of resource flows through project activities. So an improved resource scheduling method for construction is developed, called REPNET, based on a precedence network plotted on a resource–space chart and presented with a flow-line chart. The heuristics of REPNET are used to carry out resource timing while optimizing processes flows and resource usage. The method has been tested on a sample project.

  9. AN ENHANCED MODEL TO ESTIMATE EFFORT, PERFORMANCE AND COST OF THE SOFTWARE PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pauline

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The Authors have proposed a model that first captures the fundamentals of software metrics in the phase 1 consisting of three primitive primary software engineering metrics; they are person-months (PM, function-points (FP, and lines of code (LOC. The phase 2 consists of the proposed function point which is obtained by grouping the adjustment factors to simplify the process of adjustment and to ensure more consistency in the adjustments. In the proposed method fuzzy logic is used for quantifying the quality of requirements and is added as one of the adjustment factor, thus a fuzzy based approach for the Enhanced General System Characteristics to Estimate Effort of the Software Projects using productivity has been obtained. The phase 3 takes the calculated function point from our work and is given as input to the static single variable model (i.e. to the Intermediate COCOMO and COCOMO II for cost estimation. The Authors have tailored the cost factors in intermediate COCOMO and both; cost and scale factors are tailored in COCOMO II to suite to the individual development environment, which is very important for the accuracy of the cost estimates. The software performance indicators are project duration, schedule predictability, requirements completion ratio and post-release defect density, are also measured for the software projects in my work. A comparative study for effort, performance measurement and cost estimation of the software project is done between the existing model and the authors proposed work. Thus our work analyzes the interaction¬al process through which the estimation tasks were collectively accomplished.

  10. Flyover Modeling of Planetary Pits - Undergraduate Student Instrument Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhasin, N.; Whittaker, W.

    2015-12-01

    On the surface of the moon and Mars there are hundreds of skylights, which are collapsed holes that are believed to lead to underground caves. This research uses Vision, Inertial, and LIDAR sensors to build a high resolution model of a skylight as a landing vehicle flies overhead. We design and fabricate a pit modeling instrument to accomplish this task, implement software, and demonstrate sensing and modeling capability on a suborbital reusable launch vehicle flying over a simulated pit. Future missions on other planets and moons will explore pits and caves, led by the technology developed by this research. Sensor software utilizes modern graph-based optimization techniques to build 3D models using camera, LIDAR, and inertial data. The modeling performance was validated with a test flyover of a planetary skylight analog structure on the Masten Xombie sRLV. The trajectory profile closely follows that of autonomous planetary powered descent, including translational and rotational dynamics as well as shock and vibration. A hexagonal structure made of shipping containers provides a terrain feature that serves as an appropriate analog for the rim and upper walls of a cylindrical planetary skylight. The skylight analog floor, walls, and rim are modeled in elevation with a 96% coverage rate at 0.25m2 resolution. The inner skylight walls have 5.9cm2 color image resolution and the rims are 6.7cm2 with measurement precision superior to 1m. The multidisciplinary student team included students of all experience levels, with backgrounds in robotics, physics, computer science, systems, mechanical and electrical engineering. The team was commited to authentic scientific experimentation, and defined specific instrument requirements and measurable experiment objectives to verify successful completion.This work was made possible by the NASA Undergraduate Student Instrument Project Educational Flight Opportunity 2013 program. Additional support was provided by the sponsorship of an

  11. The Agriculture Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.

    2010-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and world agricultural trade modeling groups around the world. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Historical period results will spur model improvement and interaction among major modeling groups, while future period results will lead directly to tests of adaptation and mitigation strategies across a range of scales. AgMIP will consist of a multi-scale impact assessment utilizing the latest methods for climate and agricultural scenario generation. Scenarios and modeling protocols will be distributed on the web, and multi-model results will be collated and analyzed to ensure the widest possible coverage of agricultural crops and regions. AgMIP will place regional changes in agricultural production in a global context that reflects new trading opportunities, imbalances, and shortages in world markets resulting from climate change and other driving forces for food supply. Such projections are essential inputs from the Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation (VIA) research community to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (AR5), now underway, and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. They will set the context for local-scale vulnerability and adaptation studies, supply test scenarios for national-scale development of trade policy instruments, provide critical information on changing supply and demand for water resources, and elucidate interactive effects of climate change and land use change. AgMIP will not only provide crucially-needed new global estimates of how climate change will affect food supply and hunger in the

  12. Project Investment and Project Financing: A study on Business Case and Financing Models

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Simiao

    2012-01-01

    Uncertainty is a very significant factor that must be taken into consideration in project front-end phase management. By taking into uncertainty, the planners can to a great extent make sure that the business case could be accurate between specific intervals, hence business case can be based on to make decision. In a highly uncertain environment; the project sponsors should prefer other means to finance the project rather than using debt. Risk management is extremely important in project fina...

  13. Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akinsanola, A. A.; Zhou, Wen

    2018-05-01

    Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment models. Eight (8) extreme rainfall indices (CDD, CWD, r10mm, r20mm, PRCPTOT, R95pTOT, rx5day, and sdii) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were used in the study. The performance of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations was validated by comparing with GPCP and TRMM observation data sets. Results show that the RCMs reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of extreme rainfall over the region and further added significant value to the driven GCMs over some grids. Compared to the baseline period 1976-2005, future changes (2070-2099) in summer rainfall extremes under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show statistically significant decreasing total rainfall (PRCPTOT), while consecutive dry days and extreme rainfall events (R95pTOT) are projected to increase significantly. There are obvious indications that simple rainfall intensity (sdii) will increase in the future. This does not amount to an increase in total rainfall but suggests a likelihood of greater intensity of rainfall events. Overall, our results project that West Africa may suffer more natural disasters such as droughts and floods in the future.

  14. Hydrological modeling as an evaluation tool of EURO-CORDEX climate projections and bias correction methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakala, Kirsti; Addor, Nans; Seibert, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Streamflow stemming from Switzerland's mountainous landscape will be influenced by climate change, which will pose significant challenges to the water management and policy sector. In climate change impact research, the determination of future streamflow is impeded by different sources of uncertainty, which propagate through the model chain. In this research, we explicitly considered the following sources of uncertainty: (1) climate models, (2) downscaling of the climate projections to the catchment scale, (3) bias correction method and (4) parameterization of the hydrological model. We utilize climate projections at the 0.11 degree 12.5 km resolution from the EURO-CORDEX project, which are the most recent climate projections for the European domain. EURO-CORDEX is comprised of regional climate model (RCM) simulations, which have been downscaled from global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 archive, using both dynamical and statistical techniques. Uncertainties are explored by applying a modeling chain involving 14 GCM-RCMs to ten Swiss catchments. We utilize the rainfall-runoff model HBV Light, which has been widely used in operational hydrological forecasting. The Lindström measure, a combination of model efficiency and volume error, was used as an objective function to calibrate HBV Light. Ten best sets of parameters are then achieved by calibrating using the genetic algorithm and Powell optimization (GAP) method. The GAP optimization method is based on the evolution of parameter sets, which works by selecting and recombining high performing parameter sets with each other. Once HBV is calibrated, we then perform a quantitative comparison of the influence of biases inherited from climate model simulations to the biases stemming from the hydrological model. The evaluation is conducted over two time periods: i) 1980-2009 to characterize the simulation realism under the current climate and ii) 2070-2099 to identify the magnitude of the projected change of

  15. Modelling sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for radioactive waste disposal. Project BIOCLIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Texier, D.; Degnan, P.; Loutre, M.F.; Lemaitre, G.; Paillard, D.; Thorne, M.

    2000-01-01

    The BIOCLIM project (Modelling Sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for Radioactive Waste Disposal) is part of the EURATOM fifth European framework programme. The project was launched in October 2000 for a three-year period. It is coordinated by ANDRA, the French national radioactive waste management agency. The project brings together a number of European radioactive waste management organisations that have national responsibilities for the safe disposal of radioactive wastes, and several highly experienced climate research teams. Waste management organisations involved are: NIREX (UK), GRS (Germany), ENRESA (Spain), NRI (Czech Republic) and ANDRA (France). Climate research teams involved are: LSCE (CEA/CNRS, France), CIEMAT (Spain), UPMETSIMM (Spain), UCL/ASTR (Belgium) and CRU (UEA, UK). The Environmental Agency for England and Wales provides a regulatory perspective. The consulting company Enviros Consulting (UK) assists ANDRA by contributing to both the administrative and scientific aspects of the project. This paper describes the project and progress to date. (authors)

  16. Preliminary corrosion models for BWIP [Basalt Waste Isolation Project] canister materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fish, R.L.; Anantatmula, R.P.

    1983-01-01

    Waste package development for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project (BWIP) requires the generation of materials degradation data under repository relevant conditions. These data are used to develop predictive models for the behavior of each component of waste package. The component models are exercised in performance analyses to optimize the waste package design. This document presents all repository relevant canister materials corrosion data that the BWIP and others have developed to date, describes the methodology used to develop preliminary corrosion models and provides the mathematical description of the models for both low carbon steel and Fe9Cr1Mo steel. Example environment/temperature history and model application calculations are presented to aid in understanding the models. The models are preliminary in nature and will be updated as additional corrosion data become available. 6 refs., 5 tabs

  17. Project-Management Tools for Libraries: A Planning and Implementation Model Using Microsoft Project 2000

    OpenAIRE

    Ying Zhang; Corinne Bishop

    2005-01-01

    This paper discusses how Microsoft Project 2000 was utilized at the University of Central Florida Libraries to manage an e-reference implementation project. As libraries today adopt more information technologies, efficiently managing projects can be challenging. The authors’ experience in the implementation of QuestionPoint e-reference software in October 2003 is described. Their conclusion illustrates that project-management tools, such as Microsoft Project 2000, offer practical workflow-man...

  18. Gulf of Mexico dissolved oxygen model (GoMDOM) research and quality assurance project plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    An integrated high resolution mathematical modeling framework is being developed that will link hydrodynamic, atmospheric, and water quality models for the northern Gulf of Mexico. This Research and Quality Assurance Project Plan primarily focuses on the deterministic Gulf of Me...

  19. Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Strœve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2009-01-01

    Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. PMID:19171908

  20. Biogeochemical protocols and diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Orr

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP focuses on the physics and biogeochemistry of the ocean component of Earth system models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6. OMIP aims to provide standard protocols and diagnostics for ocean models, while offering a forum to promote their common assessment and improvement. It also offers to compare solutions of the same ocean models when forced with reanalysis data (OMIP simulations vs. when integrated within fully coupled Earth system models (CMIP6. Here we detail simulation protocols and diagnostics for OMIP's biogeochemical and inert chemical tracers. These passive-tracer simulations will be coupled to ocean circulation models, initialized with observational data or output from a model spin-up, and forced by repeating the 1948–2009 surface fluxes of heat, fresh water, and momentum. These so-called OMIP-BGC simulations include three inert chemical tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, SF6 and biogeochemical tracers (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon isotopes, alkalinity, nutrients, and oxygen. Modelers will use their preferred prognostic BGC model but should follow common guidelines for gas exchange and carbonate chemistry. Simulations include both natural and total carbon tracers. The required forced simulation (omip1 will be initialized with gridded observational climatologies. An optional forced simulation (omip1-spunup will be initialized instead with BGC fields from a long model spin-up, preferably for 2000 years or more, and forced by repeating the same 62-year meteorological forcing. That optional run will also include abiotic tracers of total dissolved inorganic carbon and radiocarbon, CTabio and 14CTabio, to assess deep-ocean ventilation and distinguish the role of physics vs. biology. These simulations will be forced by observed atmospheric histories of the three inert gases and CO2 as well as carbon isotope ratios of CO2. OMIP-BGC simulation

  1. Biogeochemical Protocols and Diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orr, James C.; Najjar, Raymond G.; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Bullister, John L.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Doney, Scott C.; Dunne, John P.; Dutay, Jean-Claude; Graven, Heather; hide

    2017-01-01

    The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) focuses on the physics and biogeochemistry of the ocean component of Earth system models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). OMIP aims to provide standard protocols and diagnostics for ocean models, while offering a forum to promote their common assessment and improvement. It also offers to compare solutions of the same ocean models when forced with reanalysis data (OMIP simulations) vs. when integrated within fully coupled Earth system models (CMIP6). Here we detail simulation protocols and diagnostics for OMIP's biogeochemical and inert chemical tracers. These passive-tracer simulations will be coupled to ocean circulation models, initialized with observational data or output from a model spin-up, and forced by repeating the 1948-2009 surface fluxes of heat, fresh water, and momentum. These so-called OMIP-BGC simulations include three inert chemical tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, SF [subscript] 6) and biogeochemical tracers (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon isotopes, alkalinity, nutrients, and oxygen). Modelers will use their preferred prognostic BGC model but should follow common guidelines for gas exchange and carbonate chemistry. Simulations include both natural and total carbon tracers. The required forced simulation (omip1) will be initialized with gridded observational climatologies. An optional forced simulation (omip1-spunup) will be initialized instead with BGC fields from a long model spin-up, preferably for 2000 years or more, and forced by repeating the same 62-year meteorological forcing. That optional run will also include abiotic tracers of total dissolved inorganic carbon and radiocarbon, CTabio and 14CTabio, to assess deep-ocean ventilation and distinguish the role of physics vs. biology. These simulations will be forced by observed atmospheric histories of the three inert gases and CO2 as well as carbon isotope ratios of CO2. OMIP-BGC simulation

  2. Biogeochemical protocols and diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orr, James C.; Najjar, Raymond G.; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Bullister, John L.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Doney, Scott C.; Dunne, John P.; Dutay, Jean-Claude; Graven, Heather; Griffies, Stephen M.; John, Jasmin G.; Joos, Fortunat; Levin, Ingeborg; Lindsay, Keith; Matear, Richard J.; McKinley, Galen A.; Mouchet, Anne; Oschlies, Andreas; Romanou, Anastasia; Schlitzer, Reiner; Tagliabue, Alessandro; Tanhua, Toste; Yool, Andrew

    2017-06-01

    The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) focuses on the physics and biogeochemistry of the ocean component of Earth system models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). OMIP aims to provide standard protocols and diagnostics for ocean models, while offering a forum to promote their common assessment and improvement. It also offers to compare solutions of the same ocean models when forced with reanalysis data (OMIP simulations) vs. when integrated within fully coupled Earth system models (CMIP6). Here we detail simulation protocols and diagnostics for OMIP's biogeochemical and inert chemical tracers. These passive-tracer simulations will be coupled to ocean circulation models, initialized with observational data or output from a model spin-up, and forced by repeating the 1948-2009 surface fluxes of heat, fresh water, and momentum. These so-called OMIP-BGC simulations include three inert chemical tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, SF6) and biogeochemical tracers (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon isotopes, alkalinity, nutrients, and oxygen). Modelers will use their preferred prognostic BGC model but should follow common guidelines for gas exchange and carbonate chemistry. Simulations include both natural and total carbon tracers. The required forced simulation (omip1) will be initialized with gridded observational climatologies. An optional forced simulation (omip1-spunup) will be initialized instead with BGC fields from a long model spin-up, preferably for 2000 years or more, and forced by repeating the same 62-year meteorological forcing. That optional run will also include abiotic tracers of total dissolved inorganic carbon and radiocarbon, CTabio and 14CTabio, to assess deep-ocean ventilation and distinguish the role of physics vs. biology. These simulations will be forced by observed atmospheric histories of the three inert gases and CO2 as well as carbon isotope ratios of CO2. OMIP-BGC simulation protocols are

  3. Worldwide transportation/energy demand, 1975-2000. Revised Variflex model projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayres, R.U.; Ayres, L.W.

    1980-03-01

    The salient features of the transportation-energy relationships that characterize the world of 1975 are reviewed, and worldwide (34 countries) long-range transportation demand by mode to the year 2000 is reviewed. A worldwide model is used to estimate future energy demand for transportation. Projections made by the forecasting model indicate that in the year 2000, every region will be more dependent on petroleum for the transportation sector than it was in 1975. This report is intended to highlight certain trends and to suggest areas for further investigation. Forecast methodology and model output are described in detail in the appendices. The report is one of a series addressing transportation energy consumption; it supplants and replaces an earlier version published in October 1978 (ORNL/Sub-78/13536/1).

  4. Impact of Project Leadership Facets on Project Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arslan Ayub

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The study analyzes the role of project leadership facets on effective project outcome. Numerous such initiatives have already been taken on project outcome/performance in the context of apposite leadership styles or project management. However, the current study is unique in the milieu of project outcome that it introduces a new leadership approach, which throws light on the significance of variant leadership facets on project outcome. The study uses explanatory approach; primary data is collected from project management professionals working in different project organizations. The study uses structural equation model (SEM technique to test the hypothesis. The study found a positive relationship between project leadership facets and project outcome.

  5. Final Report Collaborative Project: Improving the Representation of Coastal and Estuarine Processes in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bryan, Frank [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); Dennis, John [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); MacCready, Parker [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); Whitney, Michael M. [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States)

    2016-09-30

    This project aimed to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving and enhancing the representation of the processes involved in the cycling of freshwater through estuaries and coastal regions. This was a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of physical oceanographers, climate model developers, and computational scientists. It specifically targeted the DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation.

  6. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-06-01

    In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128-171 EJ across the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two

  7. A Simplified Model of Human Alcohol Metabolism That Integrates Biotechnology and Human Health into a Mass Balance Team Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Allen H. J.; Dimiduk, Kathryn; Daniel, Susan

    2011-01-01

    We present a simplified human alcohol metabolism model for a mass balance team project. Students explore aspects of engineering in biotechnology: designing/modeling biological systems, testing the design/model, evaluating new conditions, and exploring cutting-edge "lab-on-a-chip" research. This project highlights chemical engineering's impact on…

  8. Flat-plate solar array project. Volume 8: Project analysis and integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcguire, P.; Henry, P.

    1986-01-01

    Project Analysis and Integration (PA&I) performed planning and integration activities to support management of the various Flat-Plate Solar Array (FSA) Project R&D activities. Technical and economic goals were established by PA&I for each R&D task within the project to coordinate the thrust toward the National Photovoltaic Program goals. A sophisticated computer modeling capability was developed to assess technical progress toward meeting the economic goals. These models included a manufacturing facility simulation, a photovoltaic power station simulation and a decision aid model incorporating uncertainty. This family of analysis tools was used to track the progress of the technology and to explore the effects of alternative technical paths. Numerous studies conducted by PA&I signaled the achievement of milestones or were the foundation of major FSA project and national program decisions. The most important PA&I activities during the project history are summarized. The PA&I planning function is discussed and how it relates to project direction and important analytical models developed by PA&I for its analytical and assessment activities are reviewed.

  9. The Charlotte Action Research Project: A Model for Direct and Mutually Beneficial Community-University Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrell, Elizabeth; Sorensen, Janni; Howarth, Joe

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the evolution of the Charlotte Action Research Project (CHARP), a community-university partnership founded in 2008 at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, and focuses particularly on the program's unique organizational structure. Research findings of a project evaluation suggest that the CHARP model's unique…

  10. GIS embedded hydrological modeling: the SID&GRID project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borsi, I.; Rossetto, R.; Schifani, C.

    2012-04-01

    The SID&GRID research project, started April 2010 and funded by Regione Toscana (Italy) under the POR FSE 2007-2013, aims to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) for water resource management and planning based on open source and public domain solutions. In order to quantitatively assess water availability in space and time and to support the planning decision processes, the SID&GRID solution consists of hydrological models (coupling 3D existing and newly developed surface- and ground-water and unsaturated zone modeling codes) embedded in a GIS interface, applications and library, where all the input and output data are managed by means of DataBase Management System (DBMS). A graphical user interface (GUI) to manage, analyze and run the SID&GRID hydrological models based on open source gvSIG GIS framework (Asociación gvSIG, 2011) and a Spatial Data Infrastructure to share and interoperate with distributed geographical data is being developed. Such a GUI is thought as a "master control panel" able to guide the user from pre-processing spatial and temporal data, running the hydrological models, and analyzing the outputs. To achieve the above-mentioned goals, the following codes have been selected and are being integrated: 1. Postgresql/PostGIS (PostGIS, 2011) for the Geo Data base Management System; 2. gvSIG with Sextante (Olaya, 2011) geo-algorithm library capabilities and Grass tools (GRASS Development Team, 2011) for the desktop GIS; 3. Geoserver and Geonetwork to share and discover spatial data on the web according to Open Geospatial Consortium; 4. new tools based on the Sextante GeoAlgorithm framework; 5. MODFLOW-2005 (Harbaugh, 2005) groundwater modeling code; 6. MODFLOW-LGR (Mehl and Hill 2005) for local grid refinement; 7. VSF (Thoms et al., 2006) for the variable saturated flow component; 8. new developed routines for overland flow; 9. new algorithms in Jython integrated in gvSIG to compute the net rainfall rate reaching the soil surface, as input for

  11. The Future of Drought in the Southeastern U.S.: Projections from downscaled CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keellings, D.; Engstrom, J.

    2017-12-01

    The Southeastern U.S. has been repeatedly impacted by severe droughts that have affected the environment and economy of the region. In this study the ability of 32 downscaled CMIP5 models, bias corrected using localized constructed analogs (LOCA), to simulate historical observations of dry spells from 1950-2005 are assessed using Perkins skill scores and significance tests. The models generally simulate the distribution of dry days well but there are significant differences between the ability of the best and worst performing models, particularly when it comes to the upper tail of the distribution. The best and worst performing models are then projected through 2099, using RCP 4.5 and 8.5, and estimates of 20 year return periods are compared. Only the higher skill models provide a good estimate of extreme dry spell lengths with simulations of 20 year return values within ± 5 days of observed values across the region. Projected return values differ by model grouping, but all models exhibit significant increases.

  12. Accuracy and performance of 3D mask models in optical projection lithography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agudelo, Viviana; Evanschitzky, Peter; Erdmann, Andreas; Fühner, Tim; Shao, Feng; Limmer, Steffen; Fey, Dietmar

    2011-04-01

    Different mask models have been compared: rigorous electromagnetic field (EMF) modeling, rigorous EMF modeling with decomposition techniques and the thin mask approach (Kirchhoff approach) to simulate optical diffraction from different mask patterns in projection systems for lithography. In addition, each rigorous model was tested for two different formulations for partially coherent imaging: The Hopkins assumption and rigorous simulation of mask diffraction orders for multiple illumination angles. The aim of this work is to closely approximate results of the rigorous EMF method by the thin mask model enhanced with pupil filtering techniques. The validity of this approach for different feature sizes, shapes and illumination conditions is investigated.

  13. ENES the European Network for Earth System modelling and its infrastructure projects IS-ENES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guglielmo, Francesca; Joussaume, Sylvie; Parinet, Marie

    2016-04-01

    The scientific community working on climate modelling is organized within the European Network for Earth System modelling (ENES). In the past decade, several European university departments, research centres, meteorological services, computer centres, and industrial partners engaged in the creation of ENES with the purpose of working together and cooperating towards the further development of the network, by signing a Memorandum of Understanding. As of 2015, the consortium counts 47 partners. The climate modelling community, and thus ENES, faces challenges which are both science-driven, i.e. analysing of the full complexity of the Earth System to improve our understanding and prediction of climate changes, and have multi-faceted societal implications, as a better representation of climate change on regional scales leads to improved understanding and prediction of impacts and to the development and provision of climate services. ENES, promoting and endorsing projects and initiatives, helps in developing and evaluating of state-of-the-art climate and Earth system models, facilitates model inter-comparison studies, encourages exchanges of software and model results, and fosters the use of high performance computing facilities dedicated to high-resolution multi-model experiments. ENES brings together public and private partners, integrates countries underrepresented in climate modelling studies, and reaches out to different user communities, thus enhancing European expertise and competitiveness. In this need of sophisticated models, world-class, high-performance computers, and state-of-the-art software solutions to make efficient use of models, data and hardware, a key role is played by the constitution and maintenance of a solid infrastructure, developing and providing services to the different user communities. ENES has investigated the infrastructural needs and has received funding from the EU FP7 program for the IS-ENES (InfraStructure for ENES) phase I and II

  14. ORGANIZATIONAL PROJECT MANAGEMENT MATURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yana Derenskaya

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The present article is aimed at developing a set of recommendations for achieving a higher level of organizational project maturity at a given enterprise. Methodology. For the purposes of the current research, the available information sources on the components of project management system are analysed; the essence of “organizational maturity” and the existing models of organizational maturity are studied. The method of systemic and structural analysis, as well as the method of logical generalization, are employed in order to study the existing models of organizational maturity, to describe levels of organizational maturity, and finally to develop a set of methodological recommendations for achieving a higher level of organizational project maturity at a given enterprise. The results of the research showed that the core elements of project management system are methodological, organizational, programtechnical, and motivational components. Project management encompasses a wide range of issues connected with organizational structure, project team, communication management, project participants, etc. However, the fundamental basis for developing project management concept within a given enterprise starts with defining its level of organizational maturity. The present paper describes various models of organizational maturity (staged, continuous, petal-shaped and their common types (H. Кеrzner Organizational Maturity Model, Berkeley PM Maturity Model, Organizational Project Management Maturity Model, Portfolio, Program & Project Management Maturity Model. The analysis of available theoretic works showed that the notion “organizational project maturity” refers to the capability of an enterprise to select projects and manage them with the intention of achieving its strategic goals in the most effective way. Importantly, the level of maturity can be improved by means of formalizing the acquired knowledge, regulating project-related activities

  15. DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENCE PROCESS SKILLS STUDENTS WITH PROJECT BASED LEARNING MODEL- BASED TRAINING IN LEARNING PHYSICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratna Malawati

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to improve the physics Science Process Skills Students on cognitive and psychomotor aspects by using model based Project Based Learning training.The object of this study is the Project Based Learning model used in the learning process of Computationa Physics.The method used is classroom action research through two learning cycles, each cycle consisting of the stages of planning, implementation, observation and reflection. In the first cycle of treatment with their emphasis given training in the first phase up to third in the model Project Based Learning, while the second cycle is given additional treatment with emphasis discussion is collaboration in achieving the best results for each group of products. The results of data analysis showed increased ability to think Students on cognitive and Science Process Skills in the psychomotor.

  16. The Formation of the Model of Diagnosing the Results Implementation of of Consulting Projects for Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuzmin Oleh Ye.

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In the article the graphic-analytical model of diagnostics of results of implementation of consulting projects is formed, which allows to: take into consideration interests of participants to the project on choice of methods and methodologies of diagnosing; allocate alternative sets of business indicators for each object of impact in terms of consulting project; establish economic and non-economic criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of consulting, as well as monitoring of indicators and automated processing of diagnostic results to control deviations from the optimal values of the diagnosed project results. A structural-logical model of formation of alternative sets of indicators and choice of indicators for diagnostics of results of consulting projects has been developed. The elements of the enterprise management system have been codified to harmonize the corresponding indicators with their subsequent combination within the proposed sets. The control system objects and their elements have been allocated. The groups of indicators according to the technology of Balanced Score Card (BSC have been presented. The prospect of further research is the economic assessment of implementation of the diagnosed consulting projects, which will reveal the links between the parameters of production-economic activity and the assessment of projects, and allows choose the most significant ones.

  17. Transport fuel demand responses to fuel price and income projections : Comparison of integrated assessment models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edelenbosch, O. Y.; van Vuuren, Detlef; Bertram, C.; Carrara, S.; Emmerling, J.; Daly, H.; Kitous, A.; McCollum, D. L.; Saadi Failali, N.

    Income and fuel price pathways are key determinants in projections of the energy system in integrated assessment models. In recent years, more details have been added to the transport sector representation in these models. To better understand the model dynamics, this manuscript analyses transport

  18. External Economies Evaluation of Wind Power Engineering Project Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Matter-Element Extension Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-ze Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The external economies of wind power engineering project may affect the operational efficiency of wind power enterprises and sustainable development of wind power industry. In order to ensure that the wind power engineering project is constructed and developed in a scientific manner, a reasonable external economies evaluation needs to be performed. Considering the interaction relationship of the evaluation indices and the ambiguity and uncertainty inherent, a hybrid model of external economies evaluation designed to be applied to wind power engineering project was put forward based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP and matter-element extension model in this paper. The AHP was used to determine the weights of indices, and the matter-element extension model was used to deduce final ranking. Taking a wind power engineering project in Inner Mongolia city as an example, the external economies evaluation is performed by employing this hybrid model. The result shows that the external economies of this wind power engineering project are belonged to the “strongest” level, and “the degree of increasing region GDP,” “the degree of reducing pollution gas emissions,” and “the degree of energy conservation” are the sensitive indices.

  19. Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation of Historical and Projected Future Changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Dentener, Frank; McConnell, J.R.; Ro, C-U; Shaw, Mark; Vet, Robert; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Dalsoren, S.; Doherty, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Josse, B.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, David; Shindell, Drew; Skeie, R. B.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S.; Zeng, G.; Curran, M.; Dahl-Jensen, D.; Das, S.; Fritzsche, D.; Nolan, M.

    2013-08-20

    We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States, but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching >1300 mgN/m2/yr averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, ~30-50% larger than the values in any region currently (2000). Despite known issues, the new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

  20. Assessing the Option to Abandon an Investment Project by the Binomial Options Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Usually, traditional methods for investment project appraisal such as the net present value (hereinafter NPV do not incorporate in their values the operational flexibility offered by including a real option included in the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to abandon, are analysed as a complement to cash flow sequence which quantifies the project. In this way, by considering the existing analogy with financial options, a mathematical expression is derived by using the binomial options pricing model. This methodology provides the value of the option to abandon the project within one, two, and in general n periods. Therefore, this paper aims to be a useful tool in determining the value of the option to abandon according to its residual value, thus making easier the control of the uncertainty element within the project.

  1. A real option-based model to valuate CDM projects under uncertain energy policies for emission trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Taeil; Kim, Changyoon; Kim, Hyoungkwan

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A real option-based model for the valuation of CDM projects is proposed. • This study investigates the impact of energy policies on the value of CDM projects. • Level of target emission and its schedule should be carefully designed. • Government subsidy facilitates the implementation of CDM projects. • Period for free emission allowance prevents promoting CDM projects. - Abstract: Emission trading has been considered a primary policy tool for emission reduction. Governments establish national targets for emission reduction and assign emission reduction goals to private entities to accomplish the targets. To attain the goal, private entities should perform offset projects that can produce emission credits or buy emission credits from the market. However, it is not easy for private entities to decide to implement the projects because energy policies associated with emission trading keep changing; thus, the future benefits of the offset projects are quite uncertain. This study presents a real option-based model to investigate how uncertain energy policies affect the financial viability of an offset project. A case study showed that the establishment of a target emission was attractive to the government because it could make the CDM project financially viable with a small amount of government subsidy. In addition, the level of the government subsidy could determine the investment timing for the CDM project. In this context, governments should be cautious in designing energy policies, because even the same energy policies could have different impacts on private entities. Overall, this study is expected to assist private entities in establishing proper investment strategies for CDM projects under uncertain energy policies

  2. Modelled and Observed Diurnal SST Signals: "SSTDV:R.EX.-IM.A.M." Project Preliminary Results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karagali, Ioanna; Høyer, Jacob; LeBorgne, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    This study presents some of the preliminary results from the ESA Support To Science Element (STSE) funded project on the Diurnal Variability of the Sea Surface Temperature, regarding its Regional Extend and Implications in Atmospheric Modelling (SSTDV:R.EX.–IM.A.M.). During this phase of the proj......This study presents some of the preliminary results from the ESA Support To Science Element (STSE) funded project on the Diurnal Variability of the Sea Surface Temperature, regarding its Regional Extend and Implications in Atmospheric Modelling (SSTDV:R.EX.–IM.A.M.). During this phase...

  3. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package: Version 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swales, Dustin J.; Pincus, Robert; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro

    2018-01-01

    The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) gathers together a collection of observation proxies or satellite simulators that translate model-simulated cloud properties to synthetic observations as would be obtained by a range of satellite observing systems. This paper introduces COSP2, an evolution focusing on more explicit and consistent separation between host model, coupling infrastructure, and individual observing proxies. Revisions also enhance flexibility by allowing for model-specific representation of sub-grid-scale cloudiness, provide greater clarity by clearly separating tasks, support greater use of shared code and data including shared inputs across simulators, and follow more uniform software standards to simplify implementation across a wide range of platforms. The complete package including a testing suite is freely available.

  4. Assessment of Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: the CBA-DK model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2008-01-01

    The scope of this paper is to present a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation...... resulting in interval results. The embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of particular concern. The methodological approach has been to apply suitable probability distribution functions on the uncertain parameters, thus resulting...... in feasibility risk assessment moving from point to interval results. Decision support as illustrated in this paper aims to provide assistance in the development and ultimately the choice of action while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport appraisal schemes. The modelling framework...

  5. Assessment of Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: The CBA-DK Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2009-01-01

    use of both deterministic and stochastic based information. Decision support as illustrated in this paper aims to provide assistance in the development and ultimately the choice of action, while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport appraisal schemes. The modelling framework......This paper presents a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model combines use of conventional cost–benefit analysis to produce aggregated single point estimates, with quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to produce...... interval results. The embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of particular concern. The paper investigates these two impacts in terms of the Optimism Bias principle which is used to take account of the underestimation of construction...

  6. Perbandingan antara Keefektifan Model Guided Discovery Learning dan Project-Based Learning pada Matakuliah Geometri

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okky Riswandha Imawan

    2015-12-01

    Abstract This research aims to describe the effectiveness and effectiveness differences of the Guided Discovery Learning (GDL Model and the Project Based Learning (PjBL Model in terms of achievement, self-confidence, and critical thinking skills of students on the Solid Geometry subjects. This research was quasi experimental. The research subjects were two undergraduate classes of Mathematics Education Program, Ahmad Dahlan University, in their second semester, established at random. The data analysis to test the effectiveness of the GDL and PjBL Models in terms of each of the dependent variables used the t-test. The data analysis to test differences between effectiveness of the GDL and that of the PjBL Model used the MANOVA test. The results of this research show that viewed from achievement, self confidence, and critical thinking skills of the students are the application of the GDL Model on Solid Geometry subject is effective, the application of the PjBL Model on Solid Geometry subject is effective, and there is no difference in the effectiveness of GDL and PjBL Models on Solid Geometry subject in terms of achievement, self confidence, and critical thinking skills of the students. Keywords: guided discovery learning model, project-based learning model, achievement, self-confidence, critical thinking skills

  7. Accounting for downscaling and model uncertainty in fine-resolution seasonal climate projections over the Columbia River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Rana, Arun

    2018-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on natural systems as well as various socio-economic aspects of human life. This has urged scientific communities to improve the understanding of future climate and reduce the uncertainties associated with projections. In the present study, ten statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs at 1/16th deg. spatial resolution from two different downscaling procedures are utilized over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) to assess the changes in climate variables and characterize the associated uncertainties. Three climate variables, i.e. precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature, are studied for the historical period of 1970-2000 as well as future period of 2010-2099, simulated with representative concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is employed to reduce the model uncertainty and develop a probabilistic projection for each variable in each scenario. Historical comparison of long-term attributes of GCMs and observation suggests a more accurate representation for BMA than individual models. Furthermore, BMA projections are used to investigate future seasonal to annual changes of climate variables. Projections indicate significant increase in annual precipitation and temperature, with varied degree of change across different sub-basins of CRB. We then characterized uncertainty of future projections for each season over CRB. Results reveal that model uncertainty is the main source of uncertainty, among others. However, downscaling uncertainty considerably contributes to the total uncertainty of future projections, especially in summer. On the contrary, downscaling uncertainty appears to be higher than scenario uncertainty for precipitation.

  8. A model for scheduling projects under the condition of inflation and under penalty and reward arrangements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.K. Jolayemi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A zero-one mixed integer linear programming model is developed for the scheduling of projects under the condition of inflation and under penalty and reward arrangements. The effects of inflation on time-cost trade-off curves are illustrated and a modified approach to time-cost trade-off analysis presented. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the model and its properties. The examples show that misleading schedules and inaccurate project-cost estimates will be produced if the inflation factor is neglected in an environment of high inflation. They also show that award of penalty or bonus is a catalyst for early completion of a project, just as it can be expected.

  9. Rapid E-learning Development Strategies and a Multimedia Project Design Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sözcü, Ömer Faruk; Ipek, Ismail

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the study is to discuss e-learning design strategies which can be used for multimedia projects as a design model. Recent advances in instructional technologies have been found to be very important in the design of training courses by using rapid instructional design (ID) approaches. The approaches were developed to use in training…

  10. Number projection method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaneko, K.

    1987-01-01

    A relationship between the number projection and the shell model methods is investigated in the case of a single-j shell. We can find a one-to-one correspondence between the number projected and the shell model states

  11. Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. We apply an ensemble of watershed models to simulate and assess the responses of hydrological and total Hg (HgT) fluxes and concentrations to two climate change projections in the US Co...

  12. Fast three-material modeling with triple arch projection for electronic cleansing in CTC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyunna; Lee, Jeongjin; Kim, Bohyoung; Kim, Se Hyung; Shin, Yeong-Gil

    2014-07-01

    In this paper, we propose a fast three-material modeling for electronic cleansing (EC) in computed tomographic colonography. Using a triple arch projection, our three-material modeling provides a very quick estimate of the three-material fractions to remove ridge-shaped artifacts at the T-junctions where air, soft-tissue (ST), and tagged residues (TRs) meet simultaneously. In our approach, colonic components including air, TR, the layer between air and TR, the layer between ST and TR (L(ST/TR)), and the T-junction are first segmented. Subsequently, the material fraction of ST for each voxel in L(ST/TR) and the T-junction is determined. Two-material fractions of the voxels in L(ST/TR) are derived based on a two-material transition model. On the other hand, three-material fractions of the voxels in the T-junction are estimated based on our fast three-material modeling with triple arch projection. Finally, the CT density value of each voxel is updated based on our fold-preserving reconstruction model. Experimental results using ten clinical datasets demonstrate that the proposed three-material modeling successfully removed the T-junction artifacts and clearly reconstructed the whole colon surface while preserving the submerged folds well. Furthermore, compared with the previous three-material transition model, the proposed three-material modeling resulted in about a five-fold increase in speed with the better preservation of submerged folds and the similar level of cleansing quality in T-junction regions.

  13. Development and implementation of the regulatory control of sources in Latin American Model Project countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferruz Cruz, P.

    2001-01-01

    After a general assessment of the situation regarding radiation safety and the radiation protection infrastructure in Latin American countries, several of them were invited to participate in a Model Project oriented, in some cases, towards establishing a mechanism for national regulatory control of radiation sources, and in others, towards upgrading their national control programme. All these activities aimed at reaching an effective and sustainable radiation protection infrastructure based on international basic safety standards. The paper presents a general overview of the current situation with regard to radiation protection within the Model Project countries in Latin America after almost five years of activities. It includes: the implementation of regulatory issues; the control of occupational, medical and public exposures; emergency response and waste safety issues. The paper also presents some lessons learned during implementation concerning the numerous activities involved in this interregional project. (author)

  14. Intercultural team maturity model: Unity, diversity, capability. Achieving optimal performance when leading \\ud a multicultural project team

    OpenAIRE

    Prabhakar, G. P.; Walker, S.

    2005-01-01

    Our research helps to judge ‘maturity’ as an asset to projects and heightens awareness of situational leadership, using intercultural team maturity levels as a tool for optimal project leadership success.\\ud \\ud This study focuses on exactly how to analyse the team members’ ability to adapt to complex intercultural project environments, using an intercultural team maturity model.

  15. National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-II Reanalysis (Reanalysis-2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP-DOE Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) reanalysis is a follow-on project to the "50-year" (1948-present) NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Project....

  16. Projecting surgeon supply using a dynamic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraher, Erin P; Knapton, Andy; Sheldon, George F; Meyer, Anthony; Ricketts, Thomas C

    2013-05-01

    To develop a projection model to forecast the head count and full-time equivalent supply of surgeons by age, sex, and specialty in the United States from 2009 to 2028. The search for the optimal number and specialty mix of surgeons to care for the United States population has taken on increased urgency under health care reform. Expanded insurance coverage and an aging population will increase demand for surgical and other medical services. Accurate forecasts of surgical service capacity are crucial to inform the federal government, training institutions, professional associations, and others charged with improving access to health care. The study uses a dynamic stock and flow model that simulates future changes in numbers and specialty type by factoring in changes in surgeon demographics and policy factors. : Forecasts show that overall surgeon supply will decrease 18% during the period form 2009 to 2028 with declines in all specialties except colorectal, pediatric, neurological surgery, and vascular surgery. Model simulations suggest that none of the proposed changes to increase graduate medical education currently under consideration will be sufficient to offset declines. The length of time it takes to train surgeons, the anticipated decrease in hours worked by surgeons in younger generations, and the potential decreases in graduate medical education funding suggest that there may be an insufficient surgeon workforce to meet population needs. Existing maldistribution patterns are likely to be exacerbated, leading to delayed or lost access to time-sensitive surgical procedures, particularly in rural areas.

  17. A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

  18. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package: Version 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Swales

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP gathers together a collection of observation proxies or satellite simulators that translate model-simulated cloud properties to synthetic observations as would be obtained by a range of satellite observing systems. This paper introduces COSP2, an evolution focusing on more explicit and consistent separation between host model, coupling infrastructure, and individual observing proxies. Revisions also enhance flexibility by allowing for model-specific representation of sub-grid-scale cloudiness, provide greater clarity by clearly separating tasks, support greater use of shared code and data including shared inputs across simulators, and follow more uniform software standards to simplify implementation across a wide range of platforms. The complete package including a testing suite is freely available.

  19. Something of value Governance of Projects in the Project-Based Organisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Eva

    2013-01-01

    The paper presents a conceptual framework for studying Governance of Projects and issues of value in the project-based organisation. Attempts at exploring and conceptualising the issues in the current literature are reviewed. Issues pertinent to gaining value by Governance of Projects have mainly...... for a better understanding of Governance of Projects and value contribution. The findings presented here form the conceptual foundation for subsequent empirical studies of value by Governance of Projects....... been explored from the perspective of economic theory. Models found in the literature are not typically concerned with value for the implementing organisation as a whole; their scope is limited to the time just after project completion. No valid, empirically-based models of value creation by Governance...

  20. The Okapi Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, Michael

    1997-01-01

    Examines general issues in conducting information retrieval research. Topics include the Okapi information retrieval system and its probabilistic model; the Cranfield projects, concerning recall and precision; the SMART project with its vector-space model; evaluation methodology, including laboratory evaluation of interactive systems; and…