WorldWideScience

Sample records for project trades model

  1. A Multi-Objective Trade-Off Model in Sustainable Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangdong Wu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Based on the consideration of the relative importance of sustainability-related objectives and the inherent nature of sustainable construction projects, this study proposes that the contractor can balance the levels of efforts and resources used to improve the overall project sustainability. A multi-objective trade-off model using game theory was established and verified through simulation and numerical example under a moral hazard situation. Results indicate that effort levels of the contractor on sustainability-related objectives are positively related to the outcome coefficient while negatively to the coefficients of effort cost of the relevant objectives. High levels of the relative importance of sustainability-related objectives contribute to high levels of effort of the contractor. With the variation in effort levels and the coefficient of benefit allocation, the project net benefit increases before declining. The function of project benefit has a marked peak value, with an inverted “U” shape. An equilibrium always exists as for the given relative importance and coefficients of the effort costs of sustainability-related objectives. Under this condition, the owner may offer the contractor a less intense incentive and motivate the contractor reasonably arranging input resources. The coefficient of benefit allocation is affected by the contractor characteristic factors and the project characteristic factors. The owner should balance these two types of factors and select the most appropriate incentive mechanism to improve the project benefit. Meanwhile, the contractor can balance the relative importance of the objectives and arrange the appropriate levels of effort and resources to achieve a sustainability-related objective. Very few studies have emphasized the effects of the relative importance of sustainability-related objectives on the benefits of sustainable construction projects. This study therefore builds a multi-objective trade

  2. Using the Gravity Model to Delineate a Trade Area: A Class Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzik, Anthony J.

    1992-01-01

    Reports that students who might be bored or intimidated by economic geographic theory become enthusiastic when they can apply it to their own experiences. Describes a class project involving fieldwork and in-class analysis on delineating the retail trade area of a small Ohio city. Includes three maps and mathematical formulae for data analysis.…

  3. A real option-based model to valuate CDM projects under uncertain energy policies for emission trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Taeil; Kim, Changyoon; Kim, Hyoungkwan

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A real option-based model for the valuation of CDM projects is proposed. • This study investigates the impact of energy policies on the value of CDM projects. • Level of target emission and its schedule should be carefully designed. • Government subsidy facilitates the implementation of CDM projects. • Period for free emission allowance prevents promoting CDM projects. - Abstract: Emission trading has been considered a primary policy tool for emission reduction. Governments establish national targets for emission reduction and assign emission reduction goals to private entities to accomplish the targets. To attain the goal, private entities should perform offset projects that can produce emission credits or buy emission credits from the market. However, it is not easy for private entities to decide to implement the projects because energy policies associated with emission trading keep changing; thus, the future benefits of the offset projects are quite uncertain. This study presents a real option-based model to investigate how uncertain energy policies affect the financial viability of an offset project. A case study showed that the establishment of a target emission was attractive to the government because it could make the CDM project financially viable with a small amount of government subsidy. In addition, the level of the government subsidy could determine the investment timing for the CDM project. In this context, governments should be cautious in designing energy policies, because even the same energy policies could have different impacts on private entities. Overall, this study is expected to assist private entities in establishing proper investment strategies for CDM projects under uncertain energy policies

  4. International gas trade: Potential major projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haamsoe, B.; Mashayekhi, A.; Razavi, H.

    1994-01-01

    The present paper reviews some key factors affecting continued expansion of the use and trade of natural gas, with a particular focus on a group of major gas trade and transport projects now in various stages of consideration. The paper begins by outlining the distribution of potential gas supplies, it also sketches the sectorial and regional structures of potential demand for natural gas. It continues by considering current and emerging trends in the international trade of natural gas by pipeline and as liquefied natural gas (LNG). Within the context thus provided, the paper then details a number of significant potential gas trade and transportation projects individually. Finally, the paper comments on the challenges in financing and implementing gas projects, especially with regard to economic, political, and institutional issues in the producing, transit, and consuming countries

  5. MAJOR PROJECTS THAT INFLUENCE WORLD TRADE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GEORGE CORNEL DUMITRESCU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In 1869, with the opening of the Suez Canal, world trade entered a new era of development. The commercial routes linking the Far East to the western countries were shortened considerably as compared to the maritime corridor around the Cape of Good Hope. In 1914, the opening of the Panama Canal sealed the new deal in world trade, opening for business the shortest commercial routes around the world. After 145 years from the inauguration of the Suez Canal, world trade is on the eve of a new expansion. Two major projects: the expansion of both the Suez and Panama canals, planned to be completed in the next two years, will double their transit capacity. This paper does a comparative analysis of these two strategic projects, underlining the main benefits for Egypt, Panama and world trade, based on the available statistical data, reports and literature in the field.

  6. ECO2, Emissions Trading Services, development project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruokonen, A.

    2006-01-01

    Emissions Trading started within EU at the beginning of 2005. It caused substantial changes to the business environment of energy companies and energy intensive industry. The planning of Emissions Trading is a complicated process and companies will need consulting, IT systems and other services. Emissions Trading introduces a new factor of production emission allowances, which are tradable commodities. In future, Emissions Trading emissions, emission allowances and the prices of emission allowances have to be considered during the fuel purchasing and the energy production planning. And the best possible knowledge of the own emissions balance and market situation has a monetary value when trading emission allowances. Allocation of emission allowances has done in each country according to National Allocation Plan (NAP), accepted by EU. Finland itself and thus also the Finnish companies will be net buyers of emission allowances in long run. That means commonly that the Finnish companies have to buy more allowances meaning some extra costs to the companies. That's why it is very important to develop and provide to the companies an innovatory emissions planning, follow-up, management and reporting systems. With good emission balance management the extra costs of Emissions Trading will be as low as possible. In ECO2 project, Empower together with Power-Deriva, developed Expert services, Emissions Balance Management and Reporting services and Risk Management services for Emissions Trading and needed software and tools for these services. (orig.)

  7. Managing trade-offs in landscape restoration and revegetation projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maron, Martine; Cockfield, Geoff

    2008-12-01

    Landscape restoration projects often have multiple and disparate conservation, resource enhancement, and sometimes economic objectives, since projects that seek to meet more than one objective tend to be viewed more positively by funding agencies and the community. The degree to which there are trade-offs among desired objectives is an important variable for decision makers, yet this is rarely explicitly considered. In particular, the existence of ecological thresholds has important implications for decision-making at both the project level and the regional level. We develop a model of the possibilities and choices for an agency seeking to achieve two environmental objectives in a region through revegetation of a number of sites. A graphical model of the production possibilities sets for a single revegetation project is developed, and different trade-off relationships are discussed and illustrated. Then the model is used to demonstrate the possibilities for managing all such projects within a region. We show that, where there are thresholds in the trade-off relationship between two objectives, specialization (single- or dominant-objective projects) should be considered. This is illustrated using a case study in which revegetation is used to meet avian biodiversity and salinity mitigation objectives. We conclude that where there are sufficient scientific data, explicit consideration of different types of trade-offs can assist in making decisions about the most efficient mix and type of projects to better achieve a range of objectives within a region.

  8. Identification of policies for a sustainable legal trade in rhinoceros horn based on population projection and socioeconomic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Minin, Enrico; Laitila, Jussi; Montesino-Pouzols, Federico; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Slotow, Rob; Goodman, Peter S; Conway, Anthony J; Moilanen, Atte

    2015-01-01

    Between 1990 and 2007, 15 southern white (Ceratotherium simum simum) and black (Diceros bicornis) rhinoceroses on average were killed illegally every year in South Africa. Since 2007 illegal killing of southern white rhinoceros for their horn has escalated to >950 individuals/year in 2013. We conducted an ecological–economic analysis to determine whether a legal trade in southern white rhinoceros horn could facilitate rhinoceros protection. Generalized linear models were used to examine the socioeconomic drivers of poaching, based on data collected from 1990 to 2013, and to project the total number of rhinoceroses likely to be illegally killed from 2014 to 2023. Rhinoceros population dynamics were then modeled under 8 different policy scenarios that could be implemented to control poaching. We also estimated the economic costs and benefits of each scenario under enhanced enforcement only and a legal trade in rhinoceros horn and used a decision support framework to rank the scenarios with the objective of maintaining the rhinoceros population above its current size while generating profit for local stakeholders. The southern white rhinoceros population was predicted to go extinct in the wild El Grano de los Datos de Costo Económico con Referencia Espacial y de Beneficio a la Biodiversidad y la Efectividad de una Estrategia de Determinación de Costos Resumen Entre 1990 y 2007, en promedio fueron cazados ilegalmente cada año 15 rinocerontes sureños blancos (Ceratotherium simum simum) y negros (Diceros bicornis) en Sudáfrica. Desde 2007 la caza ilegal de rinocerontes sureños blancos por su cuerno ha escalado a más de 950 individuos al año en 2013. Llevamos a cabo un análisis ecológico-económico para determinar si el comercio legal de cuerno de rinoceronte sureño blanco podría facilitar la protección del rinoceronte. Se usaron modelos lineales generalizados para examinar a los conductores socio-económicos de la caza furtiva, con base en datos colectados

  9. Firm Based Trade Models and Turkish Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilüfer ARGIN

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Among all international trade models, only The Firm Based Trade Models explains firm’s action and behavior in the world trade. The Firm Based Trade Models focuses on the trade behavior of individual firms that actually make intra industry trade. Firm Based Trade Models can explain globalization process truly. These approaches include multinational cooperation, supply chain and outsourcing also. Our paper aims to explain and analyze Turkish export with Firm Based Trade Models’ context. We use UNCTAD data on exports by SITC Rev 3 categorization to explain total export and 255 products and calculate intensive-extensive margins of Turkish firms.

  10. Models of Co2 emission trading system for projections in MSG6. Documentation and guidance; Utviklingen i stroemforbruket, prisfoelsomheten og stroemmarkedet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faehn, Taran; Stroem, Birger

    2012-08-15

    Present context of the EU Co2 Emission Trading System (EU ETS) from 2008, involves new measures directed towards a large portion of present emissions sources. Currently there is no basis in statistics figures to offset the consequences of these international obligations in SSB models. In the model projections is nevertheless necessary to model both the current instruments and expected future changes in the rules and forms of association. This paper documents the Ministry of Finance to establish a arrangements for implementing Norway's association with the EU ETS in the model MSG6. It also addresses the EU ETS policy instruments interacting with other objectives and instruments of climate policy, including the Kyoto commitments and various domestic Climate tax systems. The European emissions trading price affect the Norwegian economy through several channels. Firstly, allowances mean that the EU ETS will cover activities that gets an emission rate equal to the permit price, which will influence the players to reduce emissions through various adaptations. Second, the remaining emissions occur subject to quotas, and the proportion who do not receive free allowances will give the state the auction revenue / proceeds. Third, quotas purchased in international markets will affect account surplus. This paper outlines various solutions and concludes by recommending a system that easily can be adapted for studies of any interaction between the EU ETS system and other climate policy objectives. The system can also be easily updated to new data.(eb)

  11. Impact of trade in emission reduction credits on solar projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulkarni, P.

    1993-01-01

    Since the amendment of the Clean Air Act in 1990, the possibility of trading in Emission Reduction Credits has been looked upon as a strategy for improving the economic feasibility of solar projects. This paper discusses developments towards such a market and reviews current and proposed emission trading practices. The paper analyzes how the current characteristics of the market help or hinder the trading of credits generated by solar projects, and suggests possible solutions. Emission credits from four different solar projects and their trading potentials are presented

  12. Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Bin; Maqsood, Imran; Gong, Yazhen

    2010-04-01

    This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. ASEAN-India and ASEAN-Korea FTA: Global Trade Analysis Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Shohibul Manshur Al Ahmad

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to investigate the effects of the free trade agreement between ASEAN-India (AIFTA and ASEAN-Korea (AKFTA. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE model was applied in this paper with a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP database version 8. The GTAP simulations results show that AIFTA provides a greater positive impact than the AKFTA for each region. The greater improvement in terms of welfare, GDP, trade and investment is generated under the AIFTA scheme. Implication of this research is required of any reallocation of resources shared by each country heading on sectors which have a comparative advantage.

  14. A theoretical model of water and trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Qian; Konar, Megan; Reimer, Jeffrey J.; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Lin, Xiaowen; Zeng, Ruijie

    2016-03-01

    Water is an essential input for agricultural production. Agriculture, in turn, is globalized through the trade of agricultural commodities. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model that emphasizes four tradeoffs involving water-use decision-making that are important yet not always considered in a consistent framework. One tradeoff focuses on competition for water among different economic sectors. A second tradeoff examines the possibility that certain types of agricultural investments can offset water use. A third tradeoff explores the possibility that the rest of the world can be a source of supply or demand for a country's water-using commodities. The fourth tradeoff concerns how variability in water supplies influences farmer decision-making. We show conditions under which trade liberalization affect water use. Two policy scenarios to reduce water use are evaluated. First, we derive a target tax that reduces water use without offsetting the gains from trade liberalization, although important tradeoffs exist between economic performance and resource use. Second, we show how subsidization of water-saving technologies can allow producers to use less water without reducing agricultural production, making such subsidization an indirect means of influencing water use decision-making. Finally, we outline conditions under which riskiness of water availability affects water use. These theoretical model results generate hypotheses that can be tested empirically in future work.

  15. A trade secret model for genomic biobanking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conley, John M; Mitchell, Robert; Cadigan, R Jean; Davis, Arlene M; Dobson, Allison W; Gladden, Ryan Q

    2012-01-01

    Genomic biobanks present ethical challenges that are qualitatively unique and quantitatively unprecedented. Many critics have questioned whether the current system of informed consent can be meaningfully applied to genomic biobanking. Proposals for reform have come from many directions, but have tended to involve incremental change in current informed consent practice. This paper reports on our efforts to seek new ideas and approaches from those whom informed consent is designed to protect: research subjects. Our model emerged from semi-structured interviews with healthy volunteers who had been recruited to join either of two biobanks (some joined, some did not), and whom we encouraged to explain their concerns and how they understood the relationship between specimen contributors and biobanks. These subjects spoke about their DNA and the information it contains in ways that were strikingly evocative of the legal concept of the trade secret. They then described the terms and conditions under which they might let others study their DNA, and there was a compelling analogy to the commonplace practice of trade secret licensing. We propose a novel biobanking model based on this trade secret concept, and argue that it would be a practical, legal, and ethical improvement on the status quo. © 2012 American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, Inc.

  16. Booming Asia-Pacific oil trade spawns regional storage projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Land, R.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that surging oil trade in the Asia-Pacific region is spawning a number of big petroleum storage projects there. Among the biggest are those in Indonesia and Singapore. A group led by Singapore's Sembawang Group plans to build a $272 million (Singapore) oil storage terminal on Karimun Island in Riau province, Indonesia. Other participants include Kuo International, Hong Kong, and likely companies from Japan, Europe, and the U.S. According to press reports from Jakarta and Singapore, Van Ommeren Terminals of Netherlands was also reportedly involved in negotiations on the projects. A joint venture agreement was expected to be signed by the third quarter. Plans call for building a terminal with a capacity of 1.5 million cu m on the island, where Sembawang has a 100 year lease. Ultimately, Sembawang and Indonesian company Bangun Cipta want to develop the site as an industrial city with petrochemical plants, engineering and manufacturing industries, and shipyards. Semabawang Project Engineering recently completed a feasibility study of the Karimun storage project

  17. An extended gravity model with substitution applied to international trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bikker, J.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/06912261X

    The traditional gravity model has been applied many times to international trade flows, especially in order to analyze trade creation and trade diversion. However, there are two fundamental objections to the model: it cannot describe substitutions between flows and it lacks a cogent theoretical

  18. India-Africa: trade, investments and humanitarian projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alim Vidadievich Suleymanov

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Active growth of trade volume between India and Africa which has increased in twenty times since the beginning of the twenty-first century or in seventy times since 1991, certainly actualized a question of features of the modern Indo-African relations. In this regard the purpose of article is consideration of features of policy of India to the African countries. The author does the short historical review of the Indo-African relations, and considers key spheres of realization of modern regional strategy of India on the African continent - humanitarian projects, foreign trade and investments. The main methods of research are the comparative-historical approach and the statistical analysis, being used for identification of positive or negative dynamics of development of the Indo-African cooperation. Now the African region takes strategic significance for India. Rapid economic development of the African countries and increase in a standard of living of the population turn the continent into a perspective sales market of the Indian goods and services. Besides, India actively develops humanitarian projects and renders the financial help to many African countries. However, India faces set of problems and factors - geographical remoteness, the discrimination and racism, instability of political systems of many African countries and the African policy of China. The active economic policy of China on the African continent has compelled India to develop cooperation with the countries of Africa more actively. In recent years India also as well as China tries to make active and modernize the economic and humanitarian policy in Africa. Struggle for commodity markets of the goods and services in Africa makes Africa by strategic region not only in the Indo-Chinese relations, but in foreign policy of India as a whole.

  19. A Simple Model of Service Trade with Time Zone Differences

    OpenAIRE

    Kikuchi, Toru; Iwasa, Kazumichi

    2008-01-01

    This note proposes a two-country monopolistic competition model of service trade that captures the role of time zone differences as a determinant of trade patterns. It is shown that the utilization of time zone differences induces drastic change in trade patterns: Due to taking advantage of time zone differences, service firms learve larger countries for smaller countries.

  20. Yet Another Trading Simulation: The nonimmediacy Model

    OpenAIRE

    Jeyasreedharan, Nagaratnam

    2007-01-01

    Market participants who want to trade “quickly” demand transactional liquidity. Market participants who demand to trade “immediately” demand transactional immediacy. Traders supply immediacy when the trading returns are high and demand immediacy when the trading returns are low. Traders supply immediacy by being non-immediate and traders demand immediacy by being immediate. As these time-based expectations are functions of the underlying distributions of the clearing prices, one is able to de...

  1. Projection Models 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Illerup, J. B.; Birr-Pedersen, K.; Mikkelsen, M. H

    Models for projection of SO2-, NOx-, NMVOC- and NH3-emissions to the atmosphere have been developed and the Danish emissions have been projected until 2010 from a basis scenario including all implemented and planned measures. The projections of the four pollutants indicate that it may be difficult...

  2. Gravity Models of Trade-Based Money Laundering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ferwerda, Joras|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/314405526; Kattenberg, Marc|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/357208986; Chang, Han-Hsin|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/357209370; Unger, Brigitte|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290994926; Groot, Loek|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073642398; Bikker, Jaap|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/06912261X

    Several attempts have been made in the economics literature to measure money laundering. However, the adequacy of these models is difficult to assess, as money laundering takes place secretly and, hence, goes unobserved. An exception is trade-based money laundering (TBML), a special form of trade

  3. Trade and compliance cost model in the international supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arsyida, Tuty; van Delft, Selma; Rukanova, B.D.; Tan, Y.

    2017-01-01

    Trade costs for international supply chain are huge, even in the absence of formal barriers. It is necessary for all the stakeholders, both private and public organizations, to support an effective and efficient border compliance process. Very little trade cost model research has been done at the

  4. External Sector Rebalancing and Endogenous Trade Imbalance Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Whalley

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available I discuss the need for trade models to incorporate endogenous trade imbalances both to more adequately capture the reality of a global economy with large imbalances and pressures from the financial crisis for countries to reduce imbalances. Conventional general equilibrium trade models implicitly incorporate monetary neutrality and either have zero trade balance as a property of equilibrium, or have a fixed and exogenous trade imbalance. Models which are discussed here have a variety of forms. In one, central banks fix exchange rates and operate a non accommodative monetary policy and accumulate reserves. Changes in both trade and monetary policies change reserve accumulative and with the external sector imbalances. This is a reflection of China’s current policy regime. In another intertemporal preferences allow for simultaneous inter commodity and intertemporal trade across countries, and with changed intertemporal trade changed external sector imbalances within the period. These formulations are each applied to potential tax initiatives to aid in rebalancing.

  5. EU's CO2 trade a high risk project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wellander, Dag

    2003-01-01

    The uncertainty about the planned CO 2 trade of the European Union (EU) is very great. For the possible buyers in this politically created market the risks may be great and difficult to assess. The most effective way of forcing a reduction of emissions is trading emission licences. But this requires taking a stand on issues of very unpleasant nature. And the Kyoto protocol evades these questions, it is a thin document right from the beginning. Trade in emission licences is one of the three so-called flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto agreement. The second mechanism is joint implementation in which one industrialized country carries out emission reduction actions in another industrialized country. The third is the mechanism of clean development, in which one industrialized country takes remedial actions in a developing country. It is unclear how these mechanisms are to act in accordance with each other, both in the Kyoto Protocol and on the level of the EU. The biggest and most fundamental uncertainty, both on the EU and global levels, relates to the fact that the partners have not decided how to define the right of ownership of emissions of a certain size

  6. Urn model for products’ shares in international trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbier, Matthieu; Lee, D.-S.

    2017-12-01

    International trade fluxes evolve as countries revise their portfolios of trade products towards economic development. Accordingly products’ shares in international trade vary with time, reflecting the transfer of capital between distinct industrial sectors. Here we analyze the share of hundreds of product categories in world trade for four decades and find a scaling law obeyed by the annual variation of product share, which informs us of how capital flows and interacts over the product space. A model of stochastic transfer of capital between products based on the observed scaling relation is proposed and shown to reproduce exactly the empirical share distribution. The model allows analytic solutions as well as numerical simulations, which predict a pseudo-condensation of capital onto few product categories and when it will occur. At the individual level, our model finds certain products unpredictable, the excess or deficient growth of which with respect to the model prediction is shown to be correlated with the nature of goods.

  7. A Model for Trading the Foreign Exchange Market

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. OLIVER OSUAGWA

    inflation rates, etc. have significant impacts on the exchange rate fluctuation. Existing foreign exchange ... Keywords: FOREX, marcov chain, model, neural network, trading robot. Introduction .... Support Vector Machine (SVM). Regression ...

  8. Trade and Variety in a Model of Endogenous Product Differentiation

    OpenAIRE

    Oliver Lorz; Matthias Wrede

    2009-01-01

    This paper sets up a model of endogenous product differentiation to analyze the variety effects of international trade. In our model multi-product firms decide not only about the number of varieties they supply but also about the degree of horizontal differentiation between these varieties. Firms can raise the degree of differentiation by investing variety-specific fixed costs. In this setting, we analyze how trade integration, i.e. an increase in market size, influences the number of firms i...

  9. A local non-parametric model for trade sign inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blazejewski, Adam; Coggins, Richard

    2005-03-01

    We investigate a regularity in market order submission strategies for 12 stocks with large market capitalization on the Australian Stock Exchange. The regularity is evidenced by a predictable relationship between the trade sign (trade initiator), size of the trade, and the contents of the limit order book before the trade. We demonstrate this predictability by developing an empirical inference model to classify trades into buyer-initiated and seller-initiated. The model employs a local non-parametric method, k-nearest neighbor, which in the past was used successfully for chaotic time series prediction. The k-nearest neighbor with three predictor variables achieves an average out-of-sample classification accuracy of 71.40%, compared to 63.32% for the linear logistic regression with seven predictor variables. The result suggests that a non-linear approach may produce a more parsimonious trade sign inference model with a higher out-of-sample classification accuracy. Furthermore, for most of our stocks the observed regularity in market order submissions seems to have a memory of at least 30 trading days.

  10. Linking project-based mechanisms with domestic greenhouse gas emissions trading schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bygrave, S.; Bosi, M.

    2004-01-01

    Although there are a number of possible links between emission trading and project-based mechanisms, the focus of this paper is on linking domestic GHG emission trading schemes with: (1) domestic; and, (2) international (JI and CDM) GHG reduction project activities. The objective is to examine some of the challenges in linking DETs and project-based mechanisms, as well as some possible solutions to address these challenges. The link between JI / CDM and intergovernmental international emissions trading (i.e. Article 17 of the Kyoto Protocol) is defined by the Kyoto Protocol, and therefore is not covered in this paper. The paper is written in the context of: (a) countries adhering to the Kyoto Protocol and elaborating their strategies to meet their GHG emission commitments, including through the use of the emissions trading and project-based mechanisms. For example, the European Union (EU) will be commencing a GHG Emissions Trading Scheme in January 2005, and recently, the Council of ministers and the European Parliament agreed on a text for an EU Linking Directive allowing the use of JI and CDM emission units in the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS); and (b) all countries (and/or regions within countries) with GHG emission obligations that may choose to use domestic emissions trading and project-based mechanisms to meet their GHG commitments. The paper includes the following elements: (1) an overview of the different flexibility mechanisms (i.e. GHG emissions trading and PBMs), including a brief description and comparisons between the mechanisms (Section 3); (2) an exploration of the issues that emerge when project-based mechanisms link with domestic emissions trading schemes, as well as possible solutions to address some of the challenges raised (Section 4); (3) a case study examining the EU-ETS and the EU Linking Directive on project-based mechanisms, in particular on how the EU is addressing in a practical context relevant linking issues (Section 5); (4) a

  11. European project for a multinational macrosectoral model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    d' Alcantara, G; Italianer, A

    1984-01-01

    This paper describes the HERMES project, a multinational macrosectoral European econometric modelling effort, sponsored by the Directorates General II (Economic and Financial Affairs), XII (Science, Research and Development), XVII (Energy) and the SOEC. The set-up of the model is sketched against the background of problems of growth, unemployment, inflation, trade balances, government balances and energy policy. Although the definitions of the variables and a complete specification of the model are given in the Appendix, the major features of the model are described extensively in the text. These include private and collective consumption (incl. a consumer demand system), the putty-clay production process, price and wage formation, sectoral bilateral trade flows and integrated energy economy modelling.

  12. Individual Attitudes Towards Trade

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jäkel, Ina Charlotte; Smolka, Marcel

    2013-01-01

    Using the 2007 wave of the Pew Global Attitudes Project, this paper finds statistically significant and economically large Stolper-Samuelson effects in individuals’ preference formation towards trade policy. High-skilled individuals are substantially more pro-trade than low-skilled individuals......-Ohlin model in shaping free trade attitudes, relative to existing literature....

  13. Greenhouse gas emissions trading and project-based mechanisms. Proceedings - CATEP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-01-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions trading and project-based mechanisms for greenhouse gas reduction are emerging market-based instruments for climate change policy. This book presents a selection of papers from an international workshop co-sponsored by the OECD and Concerted Action on Tradeable Emissions Permits (CATEP), to discuss key research and policy issues relating to the design and implementation of these instruments. The papers cover the experience of developing and transition countries with greenhouse gas emissions trading and project-based mechanisms. In addition, the papers examine the use of tradeable permits in policy mixes and harmonisation of emissions trading schemes, as well as transition issues relating to greenhouse gas emissions trading markets.

  14. Trade policy-making in a model of legislative bargaining

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Celik, Levent; Karabay, Bilgehan; McLaren, J.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 91, č. 2 (2013), s. 179-190 ISSN 0022-1996 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/12/0666 Grant - others:UK(CZ) UNCE 204005/2012 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : trade policy * multilateral legislative bargaining * political economy Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.443, year: 2013

  15. Project baselines and boundaries for project-based GHG emission reduction trading : a report to the Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Pilot Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lazarus, M.; Kartha, S.; Bernow, S. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States)

    2001-04-01

    One of the great challenges for policy makers in the twenty first century is turning out to be global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Recent setbacks in international negotiations do not preclude the imposition of national emission targets. One option being studied to increase the economic efficiency of meeting these targets is the creation of emissions trading markets. The exploration of credit trading in the field of greenhouse gas emissions is carried out under the banner of the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Trading (GERT) Pilot Project. One of its objectives is the development of the institutional framework required for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint Implementation (JI), and other international credit trading programs. To ensure credits are awarded to projects in a fair and transparent manner, technical, methodological, and administrative processes must be put in place. The determination of project baselines and project boundaries represent two of the main challenges confronting policy makers in awarding the credits. A review of baseline and boundary methods was initiated by GERT, and this report also contains a description of the main advantages and drawbacks of the various methods being considered. Lessons learned and opportunities are especially important for GERT to provide proper guidance to developers. The context and rationale for baselines and boundary setting are first explored in this report, as well as the issues of importance, and common criteria for the evaluation of alternative methods. The principal options for baseline determination, advantages and disadvantages, and applicability in various contexts were reviewed in section 2. The topic of avoided electricity use, and how to set consistent baselines for it are discussed in section 3. Project boundary is the topic of section 4, including leakage, upstream and downstream emissions, rebound and positive spillover effects, and means by which these issues can de

  16. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES), provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report.

  17. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) (Figure 1). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report

  18. An econometric model on bilateral trade in education using an augmented gravity model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina Tay

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Trade in education has become one of the most important trades for many economies. Yet, studies of education as a trade are scant owing to the conventional view of it being non-tradable. The purpose of this paper is to econometrically investigate trade in education using a nexus of international trade theories and the gravity model, one of the most widely used models in international trade in goods that has been scantly investigated on in studies on trade in education.Design/methodology/approach: A panel data analysis is broken down for 21 exporting countries and 50 importing countries, covering 1050 observations using new UNESCO database. A number of determinants of international trade including wealth of exporter & importer, domestic capacity of exporter & importer, transport costs, common religion, common language and trade restrictiveness of the importer are empirically tested on bilateral trade flows in education. An econometric model is formulated to test determinants of trade in education using an augmented gravity model.Findings: The augmented gravity model used in this study explains with high significance the determinants of trade in education including wealth of exporter & importer, domestic capacity of exporter & importer, transport costs, common religion, common language and trade restrictiveness of the importer.Research limitations/implications: Taking a macroscopic view of education as a trade may give us a myopic view of the elements important to determine what students or parents of students as well as institutions are concerned with. Nevertheless, the nexus of international trade theories and the gravity model used in this study that are largely and traditionally used on trade in goods and services, but scantly used in trade in education have been found to be highly significant and relevant in trade in education. Future studies on macro-level of analysis involving trade in education could include other determinants of

  19. Changes in the business model for Spanish fresh tomato trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pablo-Valenciano, J. de; Giacinti-Battistuzzi, M.A.; Tassile, T.; García-Azcárate, T.

    2017-01-01

    The business model applied to the fresh tomato trade from Almería is well known in Spain and abroad. The changes in demand are forcing export companies to change their trade strategies to become or remain competitive. The purpose of this paper is to know the business structure and its export dynamics in addition to the changes in trade strategies made by companies in Almería during the 2009-2013 period. The methodology is based on the Herfindahl-Hirshman index and the foreign trade competitiveness index, whereas the congruence analysis is based on Pearson’s correlation coefficients and the RV coefficient. We have also applied the dual multiple factor analysis to verify changes made to the trade policy in leading businesses between two periods or scenarios. The research shows that export-driven companies behave as a moderately concentrated structure and there is an increase in the number of exporters. The competitiveness map for Almería reveals the sector’s trend with regard to the most important markets. We have verified the changes made to their trade strategy to adjust to changes in foreign trade between the 2008/09 and 2012/13 campaigns. Finally, it can be pointed out that, in the analyzed period, changes in the business model for fresh tomato trade of Almería have not been significant, being its structure of moderate concentration. In addition, the great majority of variations in strategies of companies to adapt to the competitive environment have been made by leading companies.

  20. Changes in the business model for Spanish fresh tomato trade

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pablo-Valenciano, J. de; Giacinti-Battistuzzi, M.A.; Tassile, T.; García-Azcárate, T.

    2017-09-01

    The business model applied to the fresh tomato trade from Almería is well known in Spain and abroad. The changes in demand are forcing export companies to change their trade strategies to become or remain competitive. The purpose of this paper is to know the business structure and its export dynamics in addition to the changes in trade strategies made by companies in Almería during the 2009-2013 period. The methodology is based on the Herfindahl-Hirshman index and the foreign trade competitiveness index, whereas the congruence analysis is based on Pearson’s correlation coefficients and the RV coefficient. We have also applied the dual multiple factor analysis to verify changes made to the trade policy in leading businesses between two periods or scenarios. The research shows that export-driven companies behave as a moderately concentrated structure and there is an increase in the number of exporters. The competitiveness map for Almería reveals the sector’s trend with regard to the most important markets. We have verified the changes made to their trade strategy to adjust to changes in foreign trade between the 2008/09 and 2012/13 campaigns. Finally, it can be pointed out that, in the analyzed period, changes in the business model for fresh tomato trade of Almería have not been significant, being its structure of moderate concentration. In addition, the great majority of variations in strategies of companies to adapt to the competitive environment have been made by leading companies.

  1. Implied liquidity : towards stochastic liquidity modeling and liquidity trading

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corcuera, J.M.; Guillaume, F.M.Y.; Madan, D.B.; Schoutens, W.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we introduce the concept of implied (il)liquidity of vanilla options. Implied liquidity is based on the fundamental theory of conic finance, in which the one-price model is abandoned and replaced by a two-price model giving bid and ask prices for traded assets. The pricing is done by

  2. Modelling production-consumption flows of goods in Europe: the trade model within Transtools3

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Jong, Gerard; Tanner, Reto; Rich, Jeppe

    2017-01-01

    on disaggregated micro data and then used as an input variable in the trade model. Using Logsums in a trade model is new in applied large-scale freight models, where previous models have simply relied on the distance (e.g. crow-fly) between zones. This linkage of accessibility to the trade model makes it possible......The paper presents a new model for trade flows in Europe that is integrated with a logistics model for transport chain choice through Logsum variables. Logsums measures accessibility across an entire multi-modal logistical chain, and are calculated from a logistics model that has been estimated...... to evaluate how changes in policies on transport costs and changes in multi-modal networks will influence trade patterns. As an example the paper presents outcomes for a European-wide truck tolling scenario, which showcases to which extent trade is influenced by such a policy. The paper discusses how...

  3. Modelling trading networks and the role of trust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrio, Rafael A.; Govezensky, Tzipe; Ruiz-Gutiérrez, Élfego; Kaski, Kimmo K.

    2017-04-01

    We present a simple dynamical model for describing trading interactions between agents in a social network by considering only two dynamical variables, namely money and goods or services, that are assumed conserved over the whole time span of the agents' trading transactions. A key feature of the model is that agent-to-agent transactions are governed by the price in units of money per goods, which is dynamically changing, and by a trust variable, which is related to the trading history of each agent. All agents are able to sell or buy, and the decision to do either has to do with the level of trust the buyer has in the seller, the price of the goods and the amount of money and goods at the disposal of the buyer. Here we show the results of extensive numerical calculations under various initial conditions in a random network of agents and compare the results with the available related data. In most cases the agreement between the model results and real data turns out to be fairly good, which allow us to draw some general conclusions as how different trading strategies could affect the distribution of wealth in different kinds of societies. Our calculations reveal the striking effects of trust in commercial relations, namely that trust makes trading links more robust and the wealth distribution more even as well as allows for the existence of a healthy middle class.

  4. An International Trade Model with Entrepreneurs and Financial Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olai Hansen, Bodil; Keiding, Hans

    2016-01-01

    We consider a two-period model of a three-country world with free trade in finished products and some factor mobility, where production is subject to uncertainty. Enterpreneurs may establish production in other countries but can obtain financing only in the country of origin. In this model, integ......, integrating production across countries, in particular integrating economically strong and weak partners, may give rise to a welfare loss, showing that traditional views on efficiency of international trade must be reconsidered when risk and uncertainty are taken into account....

  5. Myanmar Model Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Heron, John

    1998-01-01

    The National Radiation Laboratory was approached by the IAEA in 1997 to provide assistance to the government of Myanmar, as part of the Model Project, in setting up an appropriate regulatory framework for radiation protection. To this end John Le Heron spent 3 weeks in late 1997 based at the Atomic Energy Department of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Yangon, assessing the existing legal framework, assisting with the review and design of the legal framework for consistency with the Basic Safety Standards, and assisting in the preparation of a system of notification, authorisation and inspection of radiation practices. (author)

  6. A new equilibrium trading model with asymmetric information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lianzhang Bao

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Taking arbitrage opportunities into consideration in an incomplete market, dealers will pricebonds based on asymmetric information. The dealer with the best offering price wins the bid. The riskpremium in dealer’s offering price is primarily determined by the dealer’s add-on rate of change tothe term structure. To optimize the trading strategy, a new equilibrium trading model is introduced.Optimal sequential estimation scheme for detecting the risk premium due to private inforamtion isproposed based on historical prices, and the best bond pricing formula is given with the accordingoptimal trading strategy. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the economic insights underthe certain stochastic term structure interest rate models.

  7. An Intelligent Model for Pairs Trading Using Genetic Algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chien-Feng; Hsu, Chi-Jen; Chen, Chi-Chung; Chang, Bao Rong; Li, Chen-An

    2015-01-01

    Pairs trading is an important and challenging research area in computational finance, in which pairs of stocks are bought and sold in pair combinations for arbitrage opportunities. Traditional methods that solve this set of problems mostly rely on statistical methods such as regression. In contrast to the statistical approaches, recent advances in computational intelligence (CI) are leading to promising opportunities for solving problems in the financial applications more effectively. In this paper, we present a novel methodology for pairs trading using genetic algorithms (GA). Our results showed that the GA-based models are able to significantly outperform the benchmark and our proposed method is capable of generating robust models to tackle the dynamic characteristics in the financial application studied. Based upon the promising results obtained, we expect this GA-based method to advance the research in computational intelligence for finance and provide an effective solution to pairs trading for investment in practice.

  8. The gravity model specification for modeling international trade flows and free trade agreement effects: a 10-year review of empirical studies

    OpenAIRE

    Kepaptsoglou, Konstantinos; Karlaftis, Matthew G.; Tsamboulas, Dimitrios

    2010-01-01

    The gravity model has been extensively used in international trade research for the last 40 years because of its considerable empirical robustness and explanatory power. Since their introduction in the 1960's, gravity models have been used for assessing trade policy implications and, particularly recently, for analyzing the effects of Free Trade Agreements on international trade. The objective of this paper is to review the recent empirical literature on gravity models, highlight best practic...

  9. Demand-side management project for Tenaga Nasional Berhad. Progress report No. 4. Export trade information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-03-01

    This study, conducted by the California Energy Commission, was funded by the U.S. Trade and Development Agency. Progress Report No. 4 is divided into the following contents: April 6, 1994 Training Mission Delegation Itinerary; April 6, 1994 Training Mission Workshop Information Package; Letter to Chairman of Tenaga Nasional Berhad Requesting Demonstration Project Funding; Design/Build Construction Bid Proposal for Energy Efficient Electric Technology Demontration Project; Final Draft of Demand-Side Management Plan for Tenaga Nasional Berhad; Attachments.

  10. Pharmaceutical industry and trade liberalization using computable general equilibrium model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barouni, M; Ghaderi, H; Banouei, Aa

    2012-01-01

    Computable general equilibrium models are known as a powerful instrument in economic analyses and widely have been used in order to evaluate trade liberalization effects. The purpose of this study was to provide the impacts of trade openness on pharmaceutical industry using CGE model. Using a computable general equilibrium model in this study, the effects of decrease in tariffs as a symbol of trade liberalization on key variables of Iranian pharmaceutical products were studied. Simulation was performed via two scenarios in this study. The first scenario was the effect of decrease in tariffs of pharmaceutical products as 10, 30, 50, and 100 on key drug variables, and the second was the effect of decrease in other sectors except pharmaceutical products on vital and economic variables of pharmaceutical products. The required data were obtained and the model parameters were calibrated according to the social accounting matrix of Iran in 2006. The results associated with simulation demonstrated that the first scenario has increased import, export, drug supply to markets and household consumption, while import, export, supply of product to market, and household consumption of pharmaceutical products would averagely decrease in the second scenario. Ultimately, society welfare would improve in all scenarios. We presents and synthesizes the CGE model which could be used to analyze trade liberalization policy issue in developing countries (like Iran), and thus provides information that policymakers can use to improve the pharmacy economics.

  11. Long term energy demand projection and potential for energy savings of Croatian tourism–catering trade sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irsag, Bojan; Pukšec, Tomislav; Duić, Neven

    2012-01-01

    Today, tourism represents one of the backbones of Croatian economy and one of the main factors of its growth. Combined with catering trade sector, tourism represents a significant energy consumer that has the tendencies of future growth. Since services sector, which tourism–catering trade sector is a part of, is not yet well described regarding future energy balances it would be very interesting to see how could possible future growth in tourism influence energy consumption of the services sector in Croatia. Through this paper long term energy demand projections of tourism–catering trade sector were studied with special emphasis on future growth of tourism in Croatia as well as different mechanisms that might lead to certain energy savings. Bottom-up approach was chosen as the most suitable one since it allows better quantification of different measures, technological or legal, that would influence future energy demand. Downside of this approach is extensive input data that is required to analyse and model future energy demand which is roughly divided into heating/cooling section and all other consumption. Results show that additional energy savings in the tourism–catering trade sector are possible if careful and rational demand side planning is in place. -- Highlights: ► Future energy demand of Croatian touristm–catering trade sector has been modelled. ► Model is roughly divided into two basic modes (heating/cooling and all other consumption). ► Different factors influencing future energy demand were implemented into the model. ► Possibilities for energy efficiency improvements have been presented.

  12. Gravity Models of Trade-based Money Laundering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ferwerda, J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/314405526; Kattenberg, M.A.C.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/357208986; Chang, H.-S.; Unger, B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290994926; Groot, L.F.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073642398; Bikker, J.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/06912261X

    2011-01-01

    Several attempts have been made in the economics literature to measure money laundering. However, the adequacy of these models is difficult to assess, as money laundering takes place secretly and, hence, goes unobserved. An exception is tradebased money laundering (TBML), a special form of trade

  13. An economic model for seaborne oil trade

    OpenAIRE

    Hong, Kian-Wah

    1996-01-01

    This thesis aims to provide some insights as to how oil prices and oil flows might vary with the carrying capacity of the tanker fleet as affected by political events. It provides an econometric analysis of tanker freight rates in the modern era and proposes a mathematical (quadratic) programming economic model that links the crude oil market to the supply elasticity of the world oil tanker fleet based on a competitive economy. The economic model can be considered as a version of the Walras-C...

  14. A microbial model of economic trading and comparative advantage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enyeart, Peter J; Simpson, Zachary B; Ellington, Andrew D

    2015-01-07

    The economic theory of comparative advantage postulates that beneficial trading relationships can be arrived at by two self-interested entities producing the same goods as long as they have opposing relative efficiencies in producing those goods. The theory predicts that upon entering trade, in order to maximize consumption both entities will specialize in producing the good they can produce at higher efficiency, that the weaker entity will specialize more completely than the stronger entity, and that both will be able to consume more goods as a result of trade than either would be able to alone. We extend this theory to the realm of unicellular organisms by developing mathematical models of genetic circuits that allow trading of a common good (specifically, signaling molecules) required for growth in bacteria in order to demonstrate comparative advantage interactions. In Conception 1, the experimenter controls production rates via exogenous inducers, allowing exploration of the parameter space of specialization. In Conception 2, the circuits self-regulate via feedback mechanisms. Our models indicate that these genetic circuits can demonstrate comparative advantage, and that cooperation in such a manner is particularly favored under stringent external conditions and when the cost of production is not overly high. Further work could involve implementing the models in living bacteria and searching for naturally occurring cooperative relationships between bacteria that conform to the principles of comparative advantage. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  15. National water, food, and trade modeling framework: The case of Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelkader, A; Elshorbagy, A; Tuninetti, M; Laio, F; Ridolfi, L; Fahmy, H; Hoekstra, A Y

    2018-05-22

    This paper introduces a modeling framework for the analysis of real and virtual water flows at national scale. The framework has two components: (1) a national water model that simulates agricultural, industrial and municipal water uses, and available water and land resources; and (2) an international virtual water trade model that captures national virtual water exports and imports related to trade in crops and animal products. This National Water, Food & Trade (NWFT) modeling framework is applied to Egypt, a water-poor country and the world's largest importer of wheat. Egypt's food and water gaps and the country's food (virtual water) imports are estimated over a baseline period (1986-2013) and projected up to 2050 based on four scenarios. Egypt's food and water gaps are growing rapidly as a result of steep population growth and limited water resources. The NWFT modeling framework shows the nexus of the population dynamics, water uses for different sectors, and their compounding effects on Egypt's food gap and water self-sufficiency. The sensitivity analysis reveals that for solving Egypt's water and food problem non-water-based solutions like educational, health, and awareness programs aimed at lowering population growth will be an essential addition to the traditional water resources development solution. Both the national and the global models project similar trends of Egypt's food gap. The NWFT modeling framework can be easily adapted to other nations and regions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. Discussion of gas trade model (GTM) results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manne, A.

    1989-01-01

    This is in response to your invitation to comment on the structure of GTM and also upon the differences between its results and those of other models participating in EMF9. First a word upon the structure. GTM was originally designed to provide both regional and sectoral detail within the North American market for natural gas at a single point in time, e.g. the year 2000. It is a spatial equilibrium model in which a solution is obtained by maximizing a nonlinear function, the sum of consumers and producers surplus. Since transport costs are included in producers cost, this formulation automatically ensures that geographical price differentials will not differ by more than transport costs. For purposes of EMF9, GTM was modified to allow for resource development and depletion over time

  17. Public summaries of feasibility studies conducted for the trinidad LNG project. Export trade information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-04-01

    The study, conducted by The M. W. Kellog Company, was funded by the U.S. Trade and Development Agency on behalf of the National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago. It shows the results of Project Definition Phase which was implemented as a follow-up to two previous feasibility studies which were conducted for a LNG plant in Trinidad. The objective of this report is to develop a project design basis and implementation plan plus a cost estimate. The study is divided into the following sections: (1) Introduction; (2) Project Design Basis; (3) Seismic Hazard Assessment; (4) Geotechnical; and (5) Environmental Assessment.

  18. A Ricardian model of new trade and location theory

    OpenAIRE

    Ricci, Luca Antonio

    1996-01-01

    This paper provides a new model of firm's location choices. It integrates a Ricardian model of comparative advantage with the location effects deriving from trade costs, increasing returns to scale, product differentiation, and monopolistic competition. In a two-region, two-differentiated-good, one-factor framework, the regional degree of specialization depends positively on the extent of the comparative advantage in productivity and on the degree of returns to scale; it depends negatively on...

  19. Economically optimized electricity trade modeling. Iran-Turkey case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shakouri G, H.; Eghlimi, M.; Manzoor, D.

    2009-01-01

    The advantages of power trade between countries, which are attainable for various facts, are distinguished now. Daily differences in the peak-load times of neighboring countries commonly occur for differences in the longitudes of their location. Seasonal differences are also caused by differences in the latitudes leading to different climates. Consequently, different load curves help to have such a production schedule that reduces blackouts and investments for power generation by planning for a proper trade between countries in a region. This paper firstly describes the methodology and framework for the power trade and then the results of an optimal power trade model between Iran and Turkey, which shows a potential benefit for both countries by peak shaving, are presented. The results, in the worst case design, represent optimality of about 1500 MW electricity export from Iran to Turkey at the Turkish peak times, as well as 447 MW electricity import from Turkey at the Iranian peak times. In addition, results derived from running a Long-Run model show that there will be greater potential for power export from Iran to Turkey, which is a guideline of an energy conservation strategy for both countries in the future. (author)

  20. Ontario emissions trading code : emission reduction credit creation, recording and transfer rules, rules for renewable energy projects and conservation projects, and rules for the operation of the Ontario Emissions Trading Registry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-12-01

    Emissions trading has been an integral part of Ontario's air quality strategy since December 31, 2001. Ontario has adopted the 'cap, credit and trade' type of emissions trading system, a hybrid that takes the best features of pure 'cap-and-trade' and 'baseline-and-credit' type systems. It covers nitric oxide and sulphur dioxide. The Ontario Emissions Trading Code supplements Ontario Regulation 397/01 and sets out rules for renewable energy projects and conservation projects for which applications for emission allowances can be made. This Code describes the rules for the creation and transfer of emission reduction credits (ERCs). It also explains the rules for the operation of the registry that has been established to provide information to the public about the emissions trading program and records decisions about credit creation and credit and allowance retirement. 3 tabs

  1. Risk-trading in flood management: An economic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Chiung Ting

    2017-09-15

    Although flood management is no longer exclusively a topic of engineering, flood mitigation continues to be associated with hard engineering options. Flood adaptation or the capacity to adapt to flood risk, as well as a demand for internalizing externalities caused by flood risk between regions, complicate flood management activities. Even though integrated river basin management has long been recommended to resolve the above issues, it has proven difficult to apply widely, and sometimes even to bring into existence. This article explores how internalization of externalities as well as the realization of integrated river basin management can be encouraged via the use of a market-based approach, namely a flood risk trading program. In addition to maintaining efficiency of optimal resource allocation, a flood risk trading program may also provide a more equitable distribution of benefits by facilitating decentralization. This article employs a graphical analysis to show how flood risk trading can be implemented to encourage mitigation measures that increase infiltration and storage capacity. A theoretical model is presented to demonstrate the economic conditions necessary for flood risk trading. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. The International Trade Network: weighted network analysis and modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharya, K; Mukherjee, G; Manna, S S; Saramäki, J; Kaski, K

    2008-01-01

    Tools of the theory of critical phenomena, namely the scaling analysis and universality, are argued to be applicable to large complex web-like network structures. Using a detailed analysis of the real data of the International Trade Network we argue that the scaled link weight distribution has an approximate log-normal distribution which remains robust over a period of 53 years. Another universal feature is observed in the power-law growth of the trade strength with gross domestic product, the exponent being similar for all countries. Using the 'rich-club' coefficient measure of the weighted networks it has been shown that the size of the rich-club controlling half of the world's trade is actually shrinking. While the gravity law is known to describe well the social interactions in the static networks of population migration, international trade, etc, here for the first time we studied a non-conservative dynamical model based on the gravity law which excellently reproduced many empirical features of the ITN

  3. Gravity Models of Trade-Based Money Laundering

    OpenAIRE

    Ferwerda, Joras; Kattenberg, Marc; Chang, Han-Hsin; Unger, Brigitte; Groot, Loek; Bikker, Jaap

    2011-01-01

    Several attempts have been made in the economics literature to measure money laundering. However, the adequacy of these models is difficult to assess, as money laundering takes place secretly and, hence, goes unobserved. An exception is tradebased money laundering (TBML), a special form of trade abuse that has been discovered only recently. TBML refers to criminal proceeds that are transferred around the world using fake invoices that under- or overvalue imports and exports. This article is a...

  4. An internet graph model based on trade-off optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Hamelin, J. I.; Schabanel, N.

    2004-03-01

    This paper presents a new model for the Internet graph (AS graph) based on the concept of heuristic trade-off optimization, introduced by Fabrikant, Koutsoupias and Papadimitriou in[CITE] to grow a random tree with a heavily tailed degree distribution. We propose here a generalization of this approach to generate a general graph, as a candidate for modeling the Internet. We present the results of our simulations and an analysis of the standard parameters measured in our model, compared with measurements from the physical Internet graph.

  5. Naesliden project: FEM modelling strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borg, T.

    1980-05-15

    A schematized description is given of the different stages in the project. The aim is to show the development of the project and the strategies which have been chosen. The four different stages in the project are treated from the following points of view: the reasons for the choice of material models; the determination of model properties; and the control of the calculated values. In the origin plan for the project it was stated to only use a joint element model. However, it was shown to be a reasonable strategy to use both a general linear elastic model and a geometric restricted model with joint elements. During the course of the Project's development stages, it was found that a reduction in the number of rock types could be made without loss of generality. A modified strategy is suggested based on more studies of the rock bahavior and less advanced calculations in the first stages of the project.

  6. Equilibrium models of trade equations : a critical review

    OpenAIRE

    Portugal, Marcelo Savino

    1993-01-01

    Neste artigo, revisa-se a literatura teórica sobre equações de comércio exterior, inclusive o modelo de comércio baseado na teoria da produção. Discute-se vários problemas comumente encontrados em trabalhos empíricos e também a literatura existente sobre equações relativas ao comércio exterior brasileiro. In this paper we review the theoretical literature on trade equation models, including the production theory approach. We discuss several empirical problems commonly found in the applied ...

  7. Projections of Virtual Water Trade Under Agricultural Policy Scenarios in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalin, C.; Hanasaki, N.; Qiu, H.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2014-12-01

    China's economic growth is expected to continue into the next decades, accompanied by a sustained urbanization and industrialization. The associated increase in demand for land, water resources and rich foods will deepen the challenge to sustainably feed the population and balance environmental and agricultural policies. In previous work, Inner Mongolia was identified as a target province for trade or agricultural policies aimed at water-use efficiency improvements, due to its large production relying on particularly significant irrigation water use. In addition, water scarcity issues may arises in the greater Beijing area, which represents the largest urban area of arid Northern China. Increasing residential and industrial water demand in this region may lead to fewer available water for irrigation. For these reasons, it is important to estimate the impacts of specific policies aiming at reducing excessive water use for crop production in Inner Mongolia, as well as exploring ways to mitigate pressure on water resources in dry urban areas. In this study, we use socio-economic projections to assess the future state of China's virtual water trade (VWT) network. We then quantify the effects of agricultural policies on the national VWT system and on the efficiency of food trade in terms of water resources. This study addresses the following questions: (1) How future socio-economic changes will affect China's food trade and associated water transfers? (2) To which extent localized reductions of irrigated area can decrease agricultural water use while maintaining national food security? (3) How would these policies affect China's domestic and international VWT network and induced water resources savings (losses)?

  8. Modeling Multi-commodity Trade Information Exchange Methods

    CERN Document Server

    Traczyk, Tomasz

    2012-01-01

    Market mechanisms are entering into new fields of economy, in which some constraints of physical world, e.g. Kirchoffs Law in power grid, must be taken into account during trading. On such markets, some of commodities, like telecommunication bandwidth or electrical energy, appear to be non-storable, and must be exchanged in real-time. On the other hand, the markets tend to react at shortest possible time, so an idea to delegate some competency to autonomous software agents is very attractive. Multi-commodity mechanism addresses the aforementioned requirements. Modeling the relationships between the commodities allows to formulate new, more sophisticated models and mechanisms, which reflect decision situations in a better manner. Application of multi-commodity approach requires solving several issues related to data modeling, communication, semantics aspects of communication, reliability, etc. This book answers some of the questions and points out promising paths for implementation and development. Presented s...

  9. Canada - United States Natural Gas Trade - A Model for Expanding Regional Energy Trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D ArcyMcGee, T.

    1996-01-01

    This document deals with the expansion of Canadian natural gas exports to the United States. Over the past decade, these exports have more than tripled. The expansion of energy trade requires a growing market, a competitive supply source, deregulation of markets and free trade agreements, capital investment and eventually a transparent market with many buyers and sellers. Even if all these factors coexisted, there have been problems linked to this expansion of exports, such as the construction of transportation capacity. (TEC)

  10. Multiplicative point process as a model of trading activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gontis, V.; Kaulakys, B.

    2004-11-01

    Signals consisting of a sequence of pulses show that inherent origin of the 1/ f noise is a Brownian fluctuation of the average interevent time between subsequent pulses of the pulse sequence. In this paper, we generalize the model of interevent time to reproduce a variety of self-affine time series exhibiting power spectral density S( f) scaling as a power of the frequency f. Furthermore, we analyze the relation between the power-law correlations and the origin of the power-law probability distribution of the signal intensity. We introduce a stochastic multiplicative model for the time intervals between point events and analyze the statistical properties of the signal analytically and numerically. Such model system exhibits power-law spectral density S( f)∼1/ fβ for various values of β, including β= {1}/{2}, 1 and {3}/{2}. Explicit expressions for the power spectra in the low-frequency limit and for the distribution density of the interevent time are obtained. The counting statistics of the events is analyzed analytically and numerically, as well. The specific interest of our analysis is related with the financial markets, where long-range correlations of price fluctuations largely depend on the number of transactions. We analyze the spectral density and counting statistics of the number of transactions. The model reproduces spectral properties of the real markets and explains the mechanism of power-law distribution of trading activity. The study provides evidence that the statistical properties of the financial markets are enclosed in the statistics of the time interval between trades. A multiplicative point process serves as a consistent model generating this statistics.

  11. Model under-representation of decadal Pacific trade wind trends and its link to tropical Atlantic bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; McGregor, Shayne; England, Matthew H.; Baillie, Zak

    2018-02-01

    The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds in recent decades has been unmatched in the observational record stretching back to the early twentieth century. This wind strengthening has been connected with numerous climate-related phenomena, including accelerated sea-level rise in the western Pacific, alterations to Indo-Pacific ocean currents, increased ocean heat uptake, and a slow-down in the rate of global-mean surface warming. Here we show that models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 underestimate the observed range of decadal trends in the Pacific trade winds, despite capturing the range in decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Analysis of observational data suggests that tropical Atlantic SST contributes considerably to the Pacific trade wind trends, whereas the Atlantic feedback in coupled models is muted. Atmosphere-only simulations forced by observed SST are capable of recovering the time-variation and the magnitude of the trade wind trends. Hence, we explore whether it is the biases in the mean or in the anomalous SST patterns that are responsible for the under-representation in fully coupled models. Over interannual time-scales, we find that model biases in the patterns of Atlantic SST anomalies are the strongest source of error in the precipitation and atmospheric circulation response. In contrast, on decadal time-scales, the magnitude of the model biases in Atlantic mean SST are directly linked with the trade wind variability response.

  12. The INTRACOIN model comparison project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawson, G.

    1982-01-01

    The International Nuclide Transport Code Intercomparison (INTRACOIN) project is investigating the different models and associated computer codes describing the transport of radionuclides in flowing ground-water following the disposal of solid radioactive wastes in geologic formations. Level I of the project has shown good agreement in the numerical accuracy of most of the codes. In Level II the ability of the codes to model field experiments with radioactive tracers will be compared. Level III will show to what extent the adoption of different models and computer codes for the transport of radionuclides with ground water affects the results of repository assessments. (U.K.)

  13. Knowledge Model: Project Knowledge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter; Grolin, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    The Knowledge model for project management serves several goals:Introducing relevant concepts of project management area for software development (Section 1). Reviewing and understanding the real case requirements from the industrial perspective. (Section 2). Giving some preliminary suggestions...... for usage in KIWI system (Sections 3). This document is intended for technological partners to understand how for example the software development concepts can be applied to a semantic wiki framework....

  14. The relationship between trading volumes, number of transactions, and stock volatility in GARCH models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya; Chen, Ting Ting

    2016-08-01

    We examine the relationship between trading volumes, number of transactions, and volatility using daily stock data of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Following the mixture of distributions hypothesis, we use trading volumes and the number of transactions as proxy for the rate of information arrivals affecting stock volatility. The impact of trading volumes or number of transactions on volatility is measured using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. We find that the GARCH effects, that is, persistence of volatility, is not always removed by adding trading volumes or number of transactions, indicating that trading volumes and number of transactions do not adequately represent the rate of information arrivals.

  15. Trade potential of climate smart goods of Vietnam: An application of gravity model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trung Van Vu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the trade potential of climate smart goods (CSG of Vietnam. In particular, the study employs gravity model with panel data for bilateral trade between Vietnam and its 45 partners from 2002 to 2013 with an objective of identifying the determinants explaining Vietnam's trade of climate smart products. The estimation results reveal that economic size, market size, distance, real exchange rate, border, and the quality of infrastructure of both Vietnam and its trading partners play a major role in bilateral trade of CSG. Additionally, the paper applies the method using speed of convergence and the estimated gravity equation to answer whether Vietnam has fully realized the potential trade of CSG. Accordingly, Vietnam has strong opportunity for trade expansion with 19 out of 45 countries in the scope of this paper.

  16. Ghana integrated to the world economy : focus on Ghana-UK-Germany trade linkage model

    OpenAIRE

    Sarpong, Daniel Bruce

    1998-01-01

    In this study of Ghana integrated to the world economy, we focus primarily on Ghana-UK-Germany trade axis partly because of Ghana?s relative dependence on the EU for her international trade. The study employs ?representative? country macroeconometric models of these economies, using data over 1970-1991, including bilateral trade links among them and with the USA and Japan, to quantitatively analyze and draw policy inference of the international transmission mechanism of macroeconomic disturba...

  17. Spiral model pilot project information model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    The objective was an evaluation of the Spiral Model (SM) development approach to allow NASA Marshall to develop an experience base of that software management methodology. A discussion is presented of the Information Model (IM) that was used as part of the SM methodology. A key concept of the SM is the establishment of an IM to be used by management to track the progress of a project. The IM is the set of metrics that is to be measured and reported throughout the life of the project. These metrics measure both the product and the process to ensure the quality of the final delivery item and to ensure the project met programmatic guidelines. The beauty of the SM, along with the IM, is the ability to measure not only the correctness of the specification and implementation of the requirements but to also obtain a measure of customer satisfaction.

  18. Constrained bayesian inference of project performance models

    OpenAIRE

    Sunmola, Funlade

    2013-01-01

    Project performance models play an important role in the management of project success. When used for monitoring projects, they can offer predictive ability such as indications of possible delivery problems. Approaches for monitoring project performance relies on available project information including restrictions imposed on the project, particularly the constraints of cost, quality, scope and time. We study in this paper a Bayesian inference methodology for project performance modelling in ...

  19. MODELS OF PROJECT REVERSE ENGINEERING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Віктор Володимирович ІВАНОВ

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Reverse engineering decided important scientific and technical problems of increasing the cost of the existing technical product by transforming it into a product with other features or design. Search ideas of the new application of existing products on the base of heuristic analysis were created. The concept of reverse engineering and its division into three types: conceptual, aggregate and complete was expanded. The use of heuristic methods for reverse engineering concept was showed. The modification model of Reverse engineering based on the model of РМВОК was developed. Our model includes two new phases: identification and transformation. At the identification phase, technical control is made. At the transformation phase, search heuristic idea of the new applied existing technical product was made. The model of execution phase that included heuristic methods, metrological equipment, and CAD/CAM/CAE program complex was created. The model that connected economic indicators of reverse engineering project was developed.

  20. The PASS project architectural model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Day, C.T.; Loken, S.; Macfarlane, J.F.

    1994-01-01

    The PASS project has as its goal the implementation of solutions to the foreseen data access problems of the next generation of scientific experiments. The architectural model results from an evaluation of the operational and technical requirements and is described in terms of an abstract reference model, an implementation model and a discussion of some design aspects. The abstract reference model describes a system that matches the requirements in terms of its components and the mechanisms by which they communicate, but does not discuss policy or design issues that would be necessary to match the model to an actual implementation. Some of these issues are discussed, but more detailed design and simulation work will be necessary before choices can be made

  1. Trade policy-making in a model of legislative bargaining

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Celik, Levent; Karabay, B.; McLaren, J.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 91, č. 2 (2013), s. 179-190 ISSN 0022-1996 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : trade policy * multilateral legislative bargaining * political economy Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.443, year: 2013

  2. International Trade Modelling Using Open Flow Networks: A Flow-Distance Based Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Bin; Zhang, Jiang; Li, Yixiao; Zheng, Qiuhua; Li, Xingsen

    2015-01-01

    This paper models and analyzes international trade flows using open flow networks (OFNs) with the approaches of flow distances, which provide a novel perspective and effective tools for the study of international trade. We discuss the establishment of OFNs of international trade from two coupled viewpoints: the viewpoint of trading commodity flow and that of money flow. Based on the novel model with flow distance approaches, meaningful insights are gained. First, by introducing the concepts of trade trophic levels and niches, countries' roles and positions in the global supply chains (or value-added chains) can be evaluated quantitatively. We find that the distributions of trading "trophic levels" have the similar clustering pattern for different types of commodities, and summarize some regularities between money flow and commodity flow viewpoints. Second, we find that active and competitive countries trade a wide spectrum of products, while inactive and underdeveloped countries trade a limited variety of products. Besides, some abnormal countries import many types of goods, which the vast majority of countries do not need to import. Third, harmonic node centrality is proposed and we find the phenomenon of centrality stratification. All the results illustrate the usefulness of the model of OFNs with its network approaches for investigating international trade flows.

  3. Solid Waste Projection Model: Model user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stiles, D.L.; Crow, V.L.

    1990-08-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford company (WHC) specifically to address solid waste management issues at the Hanford Central Waste Complex (HCWC). This document, one of six documents supporting the SWPM system, contains a description of the system and instructions for preparing to use SWPM and operating Version 1 of the model. 4 figs., 1 tab

  4. MCDA-C model for trade marketing performance evaluation: an illustrated case in the pharmaceutical sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Andrade Longaray

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Since its introduction in the early 1990s, trade marketing has played a significant role in companies and their distribution channels, focusing on the consolidation of marketing strategy at the point of purchase. In practice, one of the main obstacles for a more widespread use of trade marketing has been the lack of management tools allowing visualisation of the consequences of trade marketing in the organisation's objectives. This study shows the use of the Multi-Criteria Decision Aiding–Constructivist methodology model as an instrument of intervention in a case study conducted in a pharmaceutical company. A customised evaluation model was built interactively by interviewing decision makers to identify, organise, measure, and integrate those factors considered necessary and sufficient for the management of trade marketing. The constructed model enables executives to incorporate unique aspects of the company and the environment, expanding the possibilities for performance evaluation of trade marketing in the organisation.

  5. The Kyoto Protocol Emissions Trading Mechanisms - A Model for financing future nuclear development in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purica, Ionut; John Saroudis

    2001-01-01

    At the beginning of 2001 Romania ratified the Kyoto Protocol (Law 3/2001) thus becoming the first European country to do so. The mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol are now opening new ways to sponsor the financing of nuclear projects. In May 2001 Societatea Nationala Nuclearoelectrica S.S. (SNN) and Atomic Energy of Canada Limited and ANSALDO of Italy signed a contract to complete the second CANDU unit at Cernavoda thus giving a new momentum to the nuclear program in Romania. The Government of Romania has indicated its desire to proceed with the completion of the other units on the Cernavoda site and is open to explore every potential financing mechanism to make this a reality. Although the Kyoto Protocol was not ratified by those countries that have the greatest need to reduce emissions, a market for emissions trading has developed, Canada being one of the important players in this market. Since the emission reduction per dollar invested in the Romanian nuclear program would bring much more reduction than the marginal reduction per dollar invested in environmental protection programs in Canada, where the saturation effect is already taking place, we consider that the application of the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms represents a realistic source for a sustainable cooperation of the two countries. This trend is in line with the latest activities of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This paper analyzes the impact that the use of emissions credits would have on a typical financing scheme for a future CANDU project in Romania given the present situation and also proposes a model for the structure of the emissions trade that would generate a source of funding for the project. The conclusion is that there is real potential in using Kyoto Protocol mechanisms for financing nuclear development with benefits for both Romania and Canada. (authors)

  6. Integrated model of multiple kernel learning and differential evolution for EUR/USD trading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Shangkun; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Currency trading is an important area for individual investors, government policy decisions, and organization investments. In this study, we propose a hybrid approach referred to as MKL-DE, which combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) with differential evolution (DE) for trading a currency pair. MKL is used to learn a model that predicts changes in the target currency pair, whereas DE is used to generate the buy and sell signals for the target currency pair based on the relative strength index (RSI), while it is also combined with MKL as a trading signal. The new hybrid implementation is applied to EUR/USD trading, which is the most traded foreign exchange (FX) currency pair. MKL is essential for utilizing information from multiple information sources and DE is essential for formulating a trading rule based on a mixture of discrete structures and continuous parameters. Initially, the prediction model optimized by MKL predicts the returns based on a technical indicator called the moving average convergence and divergence. Next, a combined trading signal is optimized by DE using the inputs from the prediction model and technical indicator RSI obtained from multiple timeframes. The experimental results showed that trading using the prediction learned by MKL yielded consistent profits.

  7. Integrated Model of Multiple Kernel Learning and Differential Evolution for EUR/USD Trading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shangkun Deng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Currency trading is an important area for individual investors, government policy decisions, and organization investments. In this study, we propose a hybrid approach referred to as MKL-DE, which combines multiple kernel learning (MKL with differential evolution (DE for trading a currency pair. MKL is used to learn a model that predicts changes in the target currency pair, whereas DE is used to generate the buy and sell signals for the target currency pair based on the relative strength index (RSI, while it is also combined with MKL as a trading signal. The new hybrid implementation is applied to EUR/USD trading, which is the most traded foreign exchange (FX currency pair. MKL is essential for utilizing information from multiple information sources and DE is essential for formulating a trading rule based on a mixture of discrete structures and continuous parameters. Initially, the prediction model optimized by MKL predicts the returns based on a technical indicator called the moving average convergence and divergence. Next, a combined trading signal is optimized by DE using the inputs from the prediction model and technical indicator RSI obtained from multiple timeframes. The experimental results showed that trading using the prediction learned by MKL yielded consistent profits.

  8. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario......-based graphs which function as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project....

  9. Financing models for HTR plants: Co-financing, counter trade, joint ventures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, J.; Stoelzl, D.

    1987-01-01

    Structure and volume of investment cost for HTR nuclear power plants are different in comparison to other types of nuclear power plants. Even if the share of local participation is in comparable order of magnitude to other nuclear power plants, the required technical infrastructure for HTR plants is more suitable for existing and still practised technologies in countries which are in development processes. These HTR specific features offer special possibilities in HTR project financing. Various models are discussed in respect of the special HTR situation. Even if it is not possible to point out in a general manner the best solution - due to national, local and time dependant situations - this paper discusses the HTR specific impacts to buyer's credit financing, supplier's credit financing, barter trades or joint ventures and combined financing. (author). 4 refs, 9 figs

  10. The Gravity Model Approach: An Application on the Eco Was Trading Bloc

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luqman Afolabi O.

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to examine bilateral trade flows across ECOWAS-15 nations with the use of a panel and cross section for the period of 1981-2013. The methodology carried out to achieve this objective involves the use of various techniques of estimation for the gravity model (Static and dynamic. More specifically, this study aims to investigate the formational impact of regional trade integration agreements on trade flows within a group of countries using the same currencies and ECOWAS at large. The main use of regional variables into gravity models is intended to determine whether RTAs lead to trade creation, or diversion. The results show the presence of a strong relationship among the factors of both RIAs and trade flows.

  11. Shop Math for the Metal Trades. Combination Welder Apprentice, Machinist Helper, Precision Metal Finisher, Sheet Metal Worker Apprentice. A Report on Metal Trades Industry Certified, Single-Concept, Mathematical Learning Projects to Eliminate Student Math Fears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Lawrence R.

    This project (1) identifies basic and functional mathematics skills (shop mathematics skills), (2) provides pretests on these functional mathematics skills, and (3) provides student learning projects (project sheets) that prepare metal trades students to read, understand, and apply mathematics and measuring skills that meet entry-level job…

  12. Process of optimization of retail trade spatial development with application of locational-alocational models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kukrika Milan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This article gives a simple and brief scope of structure and usage of location-allocation models in territory planning of retail network, trying to show the main shortage of some given models and the primary direction of their future improving. We give an inspection of theirs main usage and give an explanation of basic factors that models take in consideration during the process of demand allocation. Location-allocation models are an important segment of development of spatial retail network optimization process. Their future improvement is going towards their approximation and integration with spatial-interaction models. In this way, much better methodology of planning and directing spatial development of trade general. Methodology which we have used in this research paper is based on the literature and research projects in the area. Using this methodology in analyzing parts of Serbian territory through usage of location-allocation models, showed the need for creating special software for calculating matrix with recursions. Considering the fact that the integration of location-allocation models with GIS still didn't occur, all the results acquired during the calculation of methaformula has been brought into ArcGIS 9.2 software and presented as maps.

  13. Supply Chain Model with Stochastic Lead Time, Trade-Credit Financing, and Transportation Discounts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Jun Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This model extends a two-echelon supply chain model by considering the trade-credit policy, transportations discount to make a coordination mechanism between transportation discounts, trade-credit financing, number of shipments, quality improvement of products, and reduced setup cost in such a way that the total cost of the whole system can be reduced, where the supplier offers trade-credit-period to the buyer. For buyer, the backorder rate is considered as variable. There are two investments to reduce setup cost and to improve quality of products. The model assumes lead time-dependent backorder rate, where the lead time is stochastic in nature. By using the trade-credit policy, the model gives how the credit-period would be determined to achieve the win-win outcome. An iterative algorithm is designed to obtain the global optimum results. Numerical example and sensitivity analysis are given to illustrate the model.

  14. INDICATIVE MODEL OF DEVIATIONS IN PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олена Борисівна ДАНЧЕНКО

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article shows the process of constructing the project deviations indicator model. It based on a conceptual model of project deviations integrated management (PDIM. During the project different causes (such as risks, changes, problems, crises, conflicts, stress lead to deviations of integrated project indicators - time, cost, quality, and content. For a more detailed definition of where in the project deviations occur and how they are dangerous for the whole project, it needs to develop an indicative model of project deviations. It allows identifying the most dangerous deviations that require PDIM. As a basis for evaluation of project's success has been taken famous model IPMA Delta. During the evaluation, IPMA Delta estimated project management competence of organization in three modules: I-Module ("Individuals" - a self-assessment personnel, P-module ("Projects" - self-assessment of projects and/or programs, and O-module ("Organization" - used to conduct interviews with selected people during auditing company. In the process of building an indicative model of deviations in the project, the first step is the assessment of project management in the organization by IPMA Delta. In the future, built cognitive map and matrix of system interconnections of the project, which conducted simulations and built a scale of deviations for the selected project. They determined a size and place of deviations. To identify the detailed causes of deviations in the project management has been proposed to use the extended system of indicators, which is based on indicators of project management model Project Excellence. The proposed indicative model of deviations in projects allows to estimate the size of variation and more accurately identify the place of negative deviations in the project and provides the project manager information for operational decision making for the management of deviations in the implementation of the project

  15. Energy trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glachant, J.M.; Kimman, R.; Schweickardt, H.E.

    2001-05-01

    This document brings together 18 testimonies of experts about energy trading: 1 - the energy trading experience on European deregulated markets: structure of deregulated energy markets in Europe, case study: a two years experience of a power exchange in western Europe, case study: European energy exchanges (experience of spot and future trading), case study: risk management on energy deregulated markets; 2 - the trading activity environment and realities in France: the French electrical law and the purchase for resale, experience feedback: status after 3 months of trading in France (the first experience of a French producer), the access to the power transportation network, which legal constraints for trading in France, the access of eligible clients to the French power market, conditions of implementation of a power exchange market in France, which real trading possibilities in France for producers and self-producers in the legal frame, case study: the role of trading in the company (main part or link to process), convergence of gas and electricity markets, gas-electricity trading: which pricing models; 3 - risk management and use of new technologies potentiality, the results outside the French borders: case study: what differences between the European and US markets, prices volatility and commodity risk management: towards the on-line trading, role and developments of E-business in energy trading, how to simplify trade in a liberalized market. (J.S.)

  16. Spatial Welfare Economics versus Ecological Footprint: Modeling Agglomeration, Externalities and Trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grazi, F.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.; Rietveld, P.

    2007-01-01

    A welfare framework for the analysis of the spatial dimensions of sustainability is developed. It covers agglomeration effects, interregional trade, negative environmental externalities, and various land use categories. The model is used to compare rankings of spatial configurations according to

  17. W-320 Project thermal modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathyanarayana, K., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-03-18

    This report summarizes the results of thermal analysis performed to provide a technical basis in support of Project W-320 to retrieve by sluicing the sludge in Tank 241-C-106 and to transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. Prior theraml evaluations in support of Project W-320 safety analysis assumed the availability of 2000 to 3000 CFM, as provided by Tank Farm Operations, for tank floor cooling channels from the secondary ventilation system. As this flow availability has no technical basis, a detailed Tank 241-AY-102 secondary ventilation and floor coating channel flow model was developed and analysis was performed. The results of the analysis show that only about 150 cfm flow is in floor cooLing channels. Tank 241-AY-102 thermal evaluation was performed to determine the necessary cooling flow for floor cooling channels using W-030 primary ventilation system for different quantities of Tank 241-C-106 sludge transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. These sludge transfers meet different options for the project along with minimum required modification of the ventilation system. Also the results of analysis for the amount of sludge transfer using the current system is presented. The effect of sludge fluffing factor, heat generation rate and its distribution between supernatant and sludge in Tank 241-AY-102 on the amount of sludge transfer from Tank 241-C-106 were evaluated and the results are discussed. Also transient thermal analysis was performed to estimate the time to reach the steady state. For a 2 feet sludge transfer, about 3 months time will be requirad to reach steady state. Therefore, for the purpose of process control, a detailed transient thermal analysis using GOTH Computer Code will be required to determine transient response of the sludge in Tank 241-AY-102. Process control considerations are also discussed to eliminate the potential for a steam bump during retrieval and storage in Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102 respectively.

  18. Trade Performance and Potential of the Philippines: An Application of Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

    OpenAIRE

    Deluna, Roperto Jr

    2013-01-01

    This study was conducted to investigate the issue of what Philippine merchandise trade flows would be if countries operated at the frontier of the gravity model. The study sought to estimate the coefficients of the gravity model. The estimated coefficients were used to estimate merchandise export potentials and technical efficiency of each country in the sample and these were also aggregated to measure impact of country groups, RTAs and inter-regional trading agreements. Result of the ...

  19. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario......-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project. The presentation of RSF is demonstrated by using an appraisal case concerning a new airfield in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk....

  20. The Effect of Tariff Reduction in Agricultural Sector on Macroeconomic Variables: Using Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Heidari

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Economic effects of membership in the WTO in recent years, has been one of the most important issues for Iranian economy. If Iran joins the WTO, in this process, tariff reduction in agricultural sector will be one of the policies which has to be employed. Therefore, investigating economic effects of tariff reduction or even its elimination in this sector will be necessary in running effective policies to minimize the probabilistic losses of accession. Tariffs on agricultural products in Iran are determined merely on the basis of annual country economy, and have no long term strategy. Government is just obliged to impose effective tariffs on agricultural products imports, in order to protect local productions. On the other hand, according to the census of population and housing, the share of agricultural sector in employment has reduced during the past decade. Moreover, Iran central bank information indicated the reduction in the share of agricultural sector in GDP for the past decade. Declining the share of agriculture in production and employment, considering the high number of university graduates in the field of agriculture along with rising unemployment rate of this group, motivated this study to investigate the effect of tariff reduction in this sector on macroeconomic variables. Materials and Methods: This study analyzed the welfare effects of import tariffs reduction in agricultural sector from Iran most important commercial partners and vice versa, using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP, based on computable general equilibrium (CGE model. Moreover, the effects of tariffs reduction, is investigated on output, price level and transfer of production factors between different economic sectors. In order to simulate the above model, we used GTAP version 8 which covers 57 commodities and 113 regions with economic information of these regions. This model uses Social Accounting Matrix of countries as data information. Our

  1. A simulation model of IT risk on program trading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Bingying; Jiang, Wenbao; Luo, Guangxuan

    2015-12-01

    The biggest difficulty for Program trading IT risk measures lies in the loss of data, in view of this situation, the current scholars approach is collecting court, network and other public media such as all kinds of accident of IT both at home and abroad for data collection, and the loss of IT risk quantitative analysis based on this database. However, the IT risk loss database established by this method can only fuzzy reflect the real situation and not for real to make fundamental explanation. In this paper, based on the study of the concept and steps of the MC simulation, we use computer simulation method, by using the MC simulation method in the "Program trading simulation system" developed by team to simulate the real programming trading and get the IT risk loss of data through its IT failure experiment, at the end of the article, on the effectiveness of the experimental data is verified. In this way, better overcome the deficiency of the traditional research method and solves the problem of lack of IT risk data in quantitative research. More empirically provides researchers with a set of simulation method are used to study the ideas and the process template.

  2. Towards a greater understanding of the illicit tobacco trade in Europe: a review of the PMI funded 'Project Star' report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, Anna B; Rowell, Andy; Gallus, Silvano; Lugo, Alessandra; Joossens, Luk; Sims, Michelle

    2014-05-01

    Following a legal agreement with the European Union (EU), Philip Morris International (PMI) commissions a yearly report ('Project Star', PS) on the European illicit cigarette trade from KPMG, the global accountancy firm. Review of PS 2010 report. Comparison with data from independent sources including a 2010 pan-European survey (N=18,056). Within PS, data covering all 27 EU countries are entered into a model. While the model itself seems appropriate, concerns are identified with the methodologies underlying the data inputs and thus their quality: there is little transparency over methodologies; interview data underestimate legal non-domestic product partly by failing to account for legal cross-border sales; illicit cigarette estimates rely on tobacco industry empty pack surveys which may overestimate illicit; and there is an over-reliance on data supplied by PMI with inadequate external validation. Thus, PMI sales data are validated using PMI smoking prevalence estimates, yet PMI is unable to provide sales (shipment) data for the Greek islands and its prevalence estimates differ grossly from independent data. Consequently, comparisons with independent data suggest PS will tend to overestimate illicit cigarette levels particularly where cross-border shopping is frequent (Austria, Finland, France) and in Western compared with Eastern European countries. The model also provides data on the nature of the illicit cigarette market independent of seizure data suggesting that almost a quarter of the illicit cigarette market in 2010 comprised PMI's own brands compared with just 5% counterfeited PMI brands; a finding hidden in PMI's public representation of the data. PS overestimates illicit cigarette levels in some European countries and suggests PMI's supply chain control is inadequate. Its publication serves the interests of PMI over those of the EU and its member states. PS requires greater transparency, external scrutiny and use of independent data. Published by the BMJ

  3. EVALUATION OF THE TRADE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VIETNAM AND CHINA; VIETNAM AND UNITED STATES: A COMPARISON USING GRAVITY MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lien Thi Dinh

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to evaluate the determinants of trade relationship between two largest trading partners of Vietnam, United States and China. Using gravity model for time series data from 1986 to 2015, the study found that economic growth rate plays a crucial role in stimulating the trade flow. Both trade relationships fit with the practical approach of Heckscher-Ohlin theory, stating that trade flow increases between countries with different income levels. The most important finding of this study lines on the results regarding the impact of trade agreements. While United States-Vietnam bilateral agreement creates trade, the trade agreement between ASEAN and China produced trade diversion. As China expands its markets among ASEAN countries, Vietnam should diversify its export markets to improve its export flow.

  4. An integrated model for simulating nitrogen trading in an agricultural catchment with complex hydrogeology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, T J; Rutherford, J C; Kerr, S C; Smeaton, D C; Palliser, C C

    2013-09-30

    Nitrogen loads to several New Zealand lakes are dominated by nonpoint runoff from pastoral farmland which adversely affects lake water quality. A 'cap and trade' scheme is being considered to help meet targets set for nitrogen loads to Lake Rotorua, and a numerical model, NTRADER, has been developed to simulate and compare alternative schemes. NTRADER models both the geophysics of nitrogen generation and transport, including groundwater lag times, and the economics of 'cap and trade' schemes. It integrates the output from several existing models, including a farm-scale nitrogen leaching and abatement model, a farm-scale management economic model, and a catchment-scale nitrogen transport model. This paper details modeling methods and compares possible trading program design features for the Lake Rotorua catchment. Model simulations demonstrate how a cap and trade program could be used to effectively achieve challenging environmental goals in the targeted catchment. However, results also show that, due to complex hydrogeology, satisfactory environmental outcomes may be not achieved unless groundwater lag times are incorporated into the regulatory scheme. One way to do this, as demonstrated here, would be to explicitly include lag times in the cap and trade program. The utility of the model is further demonstrated by quantifying relative differences in abatement costs across potential regulatory schemes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Sharks, Minnows, and Wheelbarrows: Calculus Modeling Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present two very active applied modeling projects that were successfully implemented in a first semester calculus course at Hollins University. The first project uses a logistic equation to model the spread of a new disease such as swine flu. The second project is a human take on the popular article "Do Dogs Know…

  6. Two retailer-supplier supply chain models with default risk under trade credit policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chengfeng; Zhao, Qiuhong

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of the paper is to formulate two uncooperative replenishment models with demand and default risk which are the functions of the trade credit period, i.e., a Nash equilibrium model and a supplier-Stackelberg model. Firstly, we present the optimal results of decentralized decision and centralized decision without trade credit. Secondly, we derive the existence and uniqueness conditions of the optimal solutions under the two games, respectively. Moreover, we present a set of theorems and corollary to determine the optimal solutions. Finally, we provide an example and sensitivity analysis to illustrate the proposed strategy and optimal solutions. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the total profits of supply chain under the two games both are better than the results under the centralized decision only if the optimal trade credit period isn't too short. It also reveals that the size of trade credit period, demand, retailer's profit and supplier's profit have strong relationship with the increasing demand coefficient, wholesale price, default risk coefficient and production cost. The major contribution of the paper is that we comprehensively compare between the results of decentralized decision and centralized decision without trade credit, Nash equilibrium and supplier-Stackelberg models with trade credit, and obtain some interesting managerial insights and practical implications.

  7. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Communication skills and leadership model, construction project ..... help a manager handle stress and break tension (Gido & Clements,. 2012: 331; Harrin .... production and management of projects, the higher the demand for.

  8. A Simple Model of Trade with Heterogeneous Firms and Trade Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Fukushima, Marcelo; Kikuchi, Toru

    2008-01-01

    This paper builds a Ricardian-Chamberlinian two-country model with heterogeneous firms in a monopolistically competitive sector in which every new entrant faces increasing fixed costs of production. There are efficiency gaps between countries in marginal and fixed costs and a country unilaterally imposes an import tariff. It is shown that an increase in tariff increases the number of firms of the tariff imposing country while decreases the number of firms of the tariff-imposed country, ...

  9. Gravity models of forest products trade: applications to forecasting and policy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno

    2016-01-01

    To predict the value of trade between countries, a differential gravity model of bilateral trade flowswas formulated and estimated with panel data from 2005 to 2014 for each of the commodity groups HS44 (wood and articles of wood), HS47 (pulp of wood, fibrous cellulosic material) and HS48 (paper and paperboard). The parameters were estimated with a large database by...

  10. Multi-model-based Access Control in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Hilbert

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available During the execution of large scale construction projects performed by Virtual Organizations (VO, relatively complex technical models have to be exchanged between the VO members. For linking the trade and transfer of these models, a so-called multi-model container format was developed. Considering the different skills and tasks of the involved partners, it is not necessary for them to know all the models in every technical detailing. Furthermore, the model size can lead to a delay in communication. In this paper an approach is presented for defining model cut-outs according to the current project context. Dynamic dependencies to the project context as well as static dependencies on the organizational structure are mapped in a context-sensitive rule. As a result, an approach for dynamic filtering of multi-models is obtained which ensures, together with a filtering service, that the involved VO members get a simplified view of complex multi-models as well as sufficient permissions depending on their tasks.

  11. Assessing a moderating effect and the global fit of a PLS model on online trading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan J. García-Machado

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a PLS Model for the study of Online Trading. Traditional investing has experienced a revolution due to the rise of e-trading services that enable investors to use Internet conduct secure trading. On the hand, model results show that there is a positive, direct and statistically significant relationship between personal outcome expectations, perceived relative advantage, shared vision and economy-based trust with the quality of knowledge. On the other hand, trading frequency and portfolio performance has also this relationship. After including the investor’s income and financial wealth (IFW as moderating effect, the PLS model was enhanced, and we found that the interaction term is negative and statistically significant, so, higher IFW levels entail a weaker relationship between trading frequency and portfolio performance and vice-versa. Finally, with regard to the goodness of overall model fit measures, they showed that the model is fit for SRMR and dG measures, so it is likely that the model is true.

  12. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  13. THE SAVINGS-TRADE-FISCAL GAP MODEL: APPLICATION IN SELECTED WEST AFRICAN STATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Efayena Oba Obukohwo

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available With most African economies experiencing adverse economic misalignment in recent times, the need of enhancing the growth process cannot be overemphasized. Using a typical Savings-Trade-Fiscal Gap Model, the paper employed panel data estimation method to examine the impact of savings, trade and fiscal gap on economic growth of 15 West African countries. The paper finds a negative relationship between net trade and economic growth, while savings and government expenditure impacts positively on economic performance. The paper thus, among recommended that it is appropriate for all countries to eliminate fiscal dominance from monetary policy-making, reduce public debt and establish institutions that promote and encourage counter-cyclical fiscal policy, develop their financial systems, establish credibility in fiscal and monetary policy-making as well as encourage trade.

  14. Investment appraisal of heat and power plants within an emissions trading scheme. Final Report of the INVIS Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurikka, H.; Pirilae, P.

    2005-04-01

    The opportunity cost for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions has become a new factor influencing investments in heat and power production capacity globally, and in particular in countries with a greenhouse gas emissions trading system, such as the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). There is a considerable power capacity investment need in the coming decades in Finland, in Europe and globally. As the economic lifetime of an investment in heat and power capacity typically ranges from 20-40 years, 'carbon finance' and the EU ETS therefore introduce a considerable and fundamental price risk to the investment problem. In Europe, the price risk is present in all investments and divestments of power production licences or capacity, be it a green-field plant, a retrofit of an existing plant or an acquisition. The objective of the INVIS research project was to extend the knowledge on strategic implications of emissions trading in investments into heat and power generation. This report gives an overview on the main findings of the project. The focus of INVIS project was on (1) quantitative investment appraisal and (2) methods rather than tools or parameter values. Particular attention in the INVIS project was paid to the incorporation of emissions trading in new methods of investment appraisal, which aim at taking into account the value of real options, rights to postpone or revise decisions. The EU ETS modifies the quantitative investment appraisal of heat and power plants directly through the emission allowance price and the number of free allowances and indirectly through impacts on output prices, input prices, taxation, and subsidies. From the risk perspective, the most problematic impact seems to be the regulatory uncertainty in the number of free allowances, which can turn out to be a barrier for investment in fossil-fuel-fired thermal power plants - even combined-cycle gas turbines. The emission allowance price is a stochastic variable, which implies it is

  15. Global maize trade and food security: implications from a social network model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Felicia; Guclu, Hasan

    2013-12-01

    In this study, we developed a social network model of the global trade of maize: one of the most important food, feed, and industrial crops worldwide, and critical to food security. We used this model to analyze patterns of maize trade among nations, and to determine where vulnerabilities in food security might arise if maize availability was decreased due to factors such as diversion to nonfood uses, climatic factors, or plant diseases. Using data on imports and exports from the U.N. Commodity Trade Statistics Database for each year from 2000 to 2009 inclusive, we summarized statistics on volumes of maize trade between pairs of nations for 217 nations. There is evidence of market segregation among clusters of nations; with three prominent clusters representing Europe, Brazil and Argentina, and the United States. The United States is by far the largest exporter of maize worldwide, whereas Japan and the Republic of Korea are the largest maize importers. In particular, the star-shaped cluster of the network that represents U.S. maize trade to other nations indicates the potential for food security risks because of the lack of trade these other nations conduct with other maize exporters. If a scenario arose in which U.S. maize could not be exported in as large quantities, maize supplies in many nations could be jeopardized. We discuss this in the context of recent maize ethanol production and its attendant impacts on food prices elsewhere worldwide. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. How does trade-mediated technology transfer affect interregional and intersectoral competition? Exploring multi-sectoral effects in a global trade model

    OpenAIRE

    Das, Gouranga

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, all technology transfers are embodied in trade flows within a three-region, six-tradedcommodity version of the GTAP model. 4% Hicks-Neutral technical progress in heavy manufacturing in one region has uneven impacts on productivity elsewhere. Why? Destination regions’ ability to harness new technology depends on their absorptive capacity and on the structural congruence of the source and destination. Together with trade volume, these two factors determine the recipi...

  17. Slow Steaming in Maritime Transportation: Fundamentals, Trade-offs, and Decision Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2015-01-01

    burned. The purpose of this chapter is to examine the practice of slow steaming from various angles. In that context, a taxonomy of models is presented, some fundamentals are outlined, the main trade-offs are analysed, and some decision models are presented. Some examples are finally presented so...

  18. Competency model for the project managers of technical projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, William R.

    1992-05-01

    Traditional job description techniques were developed to support compensation decisions for hourly wage earners in a manufacturing environment. Their resultant focus on activities performed on the job works well in this environment where the ability to perform the activity adequately is objectively verifiable by testing and observation. Although many organizations have adapted these techniques for salaried employees and service environments, the focus on activities performed has never been satisfactory. For example, stating that a project manager `prepares regular project status reports' tells us little about what to look for in a potential project manager or how to determine if a practicing project manager is ready for additional responsibilities. The concept of a `competency model' has been developed within the last decade to address this shortcoming. Competency models focus on what skills are needed to perform the tasks defined by the job description. For example, a project manager must be able to communicate well both orally and in writing in order to `prepare regular project status reports.'

  19. Quantitative Model of Price Diffusion and Market Friction Based on Trading as a Mechanistic Random Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Marcus G.; Farmer, J. Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

    2003-03-01

    We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

  20. Modelling the Volatility-Return Trade-off when Volatility may be Nonstationary

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Christian Møller; Iglesias, Emma M.

    In this paper a new GARCH-M type model, denoted the GARCH-AR, is proposed. In particular, it is shown that it is possible to generate a volatility-return trade-off in a regression model simply by introducing dynamics in the standardized disturbance process. Importantly, the volatility in the GARCH......, we provide an empirical illustration showing the empirical relevance of the GARCH-AR model based on modelling a wide range of leading US stock return series....

  1. Derivative Trade Optimizing Model Utilizing GP Based on Behavioral Finance Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumura, Koki; Kawamoto, Masaru

    This paper proposed a new technique which makes the strategy trees for the derivative (option) trading investment decision based on the behavioral finance theory and optimizes it using evolutionary computation, in order to achieve high profitability. The strategy tree uses a technical analysis based on a statistical, experienced technique for the investment decision. The trading model is represented by various technical indexes, and the strategy tree is optimized by the genetic programming(GP) which is one of the evolutionary computations. Moreover, this paper proposed a method using the prospect theory based on the behavioral finance theory to set psychological bias for profit and deficit and attempted to select the appropriate strike price of option for the higher investment efficiency. As a result, this technique produced a good result and found the effectiveness of this trading model by the optimized dealings strategy.

  2. International trade inoperability input-output model (IT-IIM): theory and application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jeesang; Santos, Joost R; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2009-01-01

    The inoperability input-output model (IIM) has been used for analyzing disruptions due to man-made or natural disasters that can adversely affect the operation of economic systems or critical infrastructures. Taking economic perturbation for each sector as inputs, the IIM provides the degree of economic production impacts on all industry sectors as the outputs for the model. The current version of the IIM does not provide a separate analysis for the international trade component of the inoperability. If an important port of entry (e.g., Port of Los Angeles) is disrupted, then international trade inoperability becomes a highly relevant subject for analysis. To complement the current IIM, this article develops the International Trade-IIM (IT-IIM). The IT-IIM investigates the resulting international trade inoperability for all industry sectors resulting from disruptions to a major port of entry. Similar to traditional IIM analysis, the inoperability metrics that the IT-IIM provides can be used to prioritize economic sectors based on the losses they could potentially incur. The IT-IIM is used to analyze two types of direct perturbations: (1) the reduced capacity of ports of entry, including harbors and airports (e.g., a shutdown of any port of entry); and (2) restrictions on commercial goods that foreign countries trade with the base nation (e.g., embargo).

  3. Coupled chaotic fluctuations in a model of international trade and innovation: Some preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sushko, Iryna; Gardini, Laura; Matsuyama, Kiminori

    2018-05-01

    We consider a two-dimensional continuous noninvertible piecewise smooth map, which characterizes the dynamics of innovation activities in the two-country model of trade and product innovation proposed in [7]. This two-dimensional map can be viewed as a coupling of two one-dimensional skew tent maps, each of which characterizes the innovation dynamics in each country in the absence of trade, and the coupling parameter depends inversely on the trade cost between the two countries. Hence, this model offers a laboratory for studying how a decline in the trade cost, or globalization, might synchronize endogenous fluctuations of innovation activities in the two countries. In this paper, we focus on the bifurcation scenarios, how the phase portrait of the two-dimensional map changes with a gradual decline of the trade cost, leading to border collision, merging, expansion and final bifurcations of the coexisting chaotic attractors. An example of peculiar border collision bifurcation leading to an increase of dimension of the chaotic attractor is also presented.

  4. Social networks and trade of services: modelling interregional flows with spatial and network autocorrelation effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Mata, Tamara; Llano, Carlos

    2013-07-01

    Recent literature on border effect has fostered research on informal barriers to trade and the role played by network dependencies. In relation to social networks, it has been shown that intensity of trade in goods is positively correlated with migration flows between pairs of countries/regions. In this article, we investigate whether such a relation also holds for interregional trade of services. We also consider whether interregional trade flows in services linked with tourism exhibit spatial and/or social network dependence. Conventional empirical gravity models assume the magnitude of bilateral flows between regions is independent of flows to/from regions located nearby in space, or flows to/from regions related through social/cultural/ethic network connections. With this aim, we provide estimates from a set of gravity models showing evidence of statistically significant spatial and network (demographic) dependence in the bilateral flows of the trade of services considered. The analysis has been applied to the Spanish intra- and interregional monetary flows of services from the accommodation, restaurants and travel agencies for the period 2000-2009, using alternative datasets for the migration stocks and definitions of network effects.

  5. Mechanisms and Model Diversity of Trade-Wind Shallow Cumulus Cloud Feedbacks: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vial, Jessica; Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Vogel, Raphaela

    2017-11-01

    Shallow cumulus clouds in the trade-wind regions are at the heart of the long standing uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates. In current climate models, cloud feedbacks are strongly influenced by cloud-base cloud amount in the trades. Therefore, understanding the key factors controlling cloudiness near cloud-base in shallow convective regimes has emerged as an important topic of investigation. We review physical understanding of these key controlling factors and discuss the value of the different approaches that have been developed so far, based on global and high-resolution model experimentations and process-oriented analyses across a range of models and for observations. The trade-wind cloud feedbacks appear to depend on two important aspects: (1) how cloudiness near cloud-base is controlled by the local interplay between turbulent, convective and radiative processes; (2) how these processes interact with their surrounding environment and are influenced by mesoscale organization. Our synthesis of studies that have explored these aspects suggests that the large diversity of model responses is related to fundamental differences in how the processes controlling trade cumulus operate in models, notably, whether they are parameterized or resolved. In models with parameterized convection, cloudiness near cloud-base is very sensitive to the vigor of convective mixing in response to changes in environmental conditions. This is in contrast with results from high-resolution models, which suggest that cloudiness near cloud-base is nearly invariant with warming and independent of large-scale environmental changes. Uncertainties are difficult to narrow using current observations, as the trade cumulus variability and its relation to large-scale environmental factors strongly depend on the time and/or spatial scales at which the mechanisms are evaluated. New opportunities for testing physical understanding of the factors controlling shallow cumulus cloud responses using

  6. Mechanisms and Model Diversity of Trade-Wind Shallow Cumulus Cloud Feedbacks: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vial, Jessica; Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Vogel, Raphaela

    Shallow cumulus clouds in the trade-wind regions are at the heart of the long standing uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates. In current climate models, cloud feedbacks are strongly influenced by cloud-base cloud amount in the trades. Therefore, understanding the key factors controlling cloudiness near cloud-base in shallow convective regimes has emerged as an important topic of investigation. We review physical understanding of these key controlling factors and discuss the value of the different approaches that have been developed so far, based on global and high-resolution model experimentations and process-oriented analyses across a range of models and for observations. The trade-wind cloud feedbacks appear to depend on two important aspects: (1) how cloudiness near cloud-base is controlled by the local interplay between turbulent, convective and radiative processes; (2) how these processes interact with their surrounding environment and are influenced by mesoscale organization. Our synthesis of studies that have explored these aspects suggests that the large diversity of model responses is related to fundamental differences in how the processes controlling trade cumulus operate in models, notably, whether they are parameterized or resolved. In models with parameterized convection, cloudiness near cloud-base is very sensitive to the vigor of convective mixing in response to changes in environmental conditions. This is in contrast with results from high-resolution models, which suggest that cloudiness near cloud-base is nearly invariant with warming and independent of large-scale environmental changes. Uncertainties are difficult to narrow using current observations, as the trade cumulus variability and its relation to large-scale environmental factors strongly depend on the time and/or spatial scales at which the mechanisms are evaluated. New opportunities for testing physical understanding of the factors controlling shallow cumulus cloud responses using

  7. A multi-lateral trading model for coupled gas-heat-power energy networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Yue; Wei, Wei; Liu, Feng; Mei, Shengwei

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Optimal energy flows in the gas, heat, and power systems are modeled in detail. •A multi-lateral trading model for the coupled energy markets is proposed. •A two-phase algorithm for computing the market equilibrium. •Case studies demonstrate that market competition pilots reasonable energy prices. -- Abstract: The proliferation of cogeneration technology and the need for more resilient energy utilization inspire the emerging trend of integration of multi-resource energy systems, in which natural gas, heat, and electricity are produced, delivered, converted, and distributed more efficiently and flexibly. The increasing interactions and interdependencies across heterogenous physical networks impose remarkable challenges on the operation and market organization. This paper envisions the market trading scheme in the network-coupled natural gas system, district heating system, and power system. Based on the physical energy flow models of each system and their interdependency, a multi-lateral trading gas-heat-power (MLT-GHP) model is suggested, and a mixed-integer linear programming based two-phase algorithm is developed to find the market equilibrium. Case studies on two testing systems demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and method, showing that the multi-lateral trading essentially results in market competition that orientates reasonable energy prices. Some prospects for future researches are also summarized.

  8. Modeling the live-pig trade network in Georgia: Implications for disease prevention and control.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther Andrea Kukielka

    Full Text Available Live pig trade patterns, drivers and characteristics, particularly in backyard predominant systems, remain largely unexplored despite their important contribution to the spread of infectious diseases in the swine industry. A better understanding of the pig trade dynamics can inform the implementation of risk-based and more cost-effective prevention and control programs for swine diseases. In this study, a semi-structured questionnaire elaborated by FAO and implemented to 487 farmers was used to collect data regarding basic characteristics about pig demographics and live-pig trade among villages in the country of Georgia, where very scarce information is available. Social network analysis and exponential random graph models were used to better understand the structure, contact patterns and main drivers for pig trade in the country. Results indicate relatively infrequent (a total of 599 shipments in one year and geographically localized (median Euclidean distance between shipments = 6.08 km; IQR = 0-13.88 km pig movements in the studied regions. The main factors contributing to live-pig trade movements among villages were being from the same region (i.e., local trade, usage of a middleman or a live animal market to trade live pigs by at least one farmer in the village, and having a large number of pig farmers in the village. The identified villages' characteristics and structural network properties could be used to inform the design of more cost-effective surveillance systems in a country which pig industry was recently devastated by African swine fever epidemics and where backyard production systems are predominant.

  9. The Methodical Instrumentarium for Assessing the Competitiveness of Business Model of Trade Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grosul Victoria A.

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The article substantiates the need to assess the competitiveness of business model of enterprise. By analyzing, systematizing and generalizing the scientific work of foreign and domestic scientists, the basic methods of assessment were allocated and the feasibility of an integrated approach to assessing the competitiveness of business model of enterprise was argued. A scorecard system for evaluating the competitiveness of business model of trade enterprise has been developed and a structural and logical framework for the integrated assessment of the competitiveness of the indicated business model has been substantiated. Based on the Ishikawa diagram, potential competitive advantages have been defined and the «problem areas» have been identified that impact the competitiveness of business model of enterprise. The authors provide recommendations for transforming the business model of trade enterprise in the context of the enterprise’s orientation towards development.

  10. Balance of trade and government intervention — Japan as a role model?

    OpenAIRE

    Schnabl, Gunther

    1996-01-01

    Japan's industrial and trade policies are often seen as the reason for high Japanese balance of trade surpluses. Does this theory stand up to a close examination of the relationships between balance of trade, trade policy and structural change?

  11. Model-Based Trade Space Exploration for Near-Earth Space Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Ronald H.; Boncyk, Wayne; Brutocao, James; Beveridge, Iain

    2005-01-01

    We developed a capability for model-based trade space exploration to be used in the conceptual design of Earth-orbiting space missions. We have created a set of reusable software components to model various subsystems and aspects of space missions. Several example mission models were created to test the tools and process. This technique and toolset has demonstrated itself to be valuable for space mission architectural design.

  12. Master equation for a kinetic model of a trading market and its analytic solution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Arnab; Chakrabarti, Bikas K; Stinchcombe, Robin B

    2005-08-01

    We analyze an ideal-gas-like model of a trading market with quenched random saving factors for its agents and show that the steady state income (m) distribution P(m) in the model has a power law tail with Pareto index nu exactly equal to unity, confirming the earlier numerical studies on this model. The analysis starts with the development of a master equation for the time development of P(m) . Precise solutions are then obtained in some special cases.

  13. a metabolic wastage model for the rate-yield trade off

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A METABOLIC WASTAGE MODEL FOR THE RATE-YIELD TRADE OFF. There is a growth limiting step in which an intermediate metabolite (m) has to hit a target molecule (t). ... D= rate of diffusing out. S= the rate of formation of the metabolite. The equilibrium loss decides the yield. The no. of activated targets decide the rate ...

  14. Writ in water, lines in sand: Ancient trade routes, models and comparative evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eivind Heldaas Seland

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Historians and archaeologists often take connectivity for granted, and fail to address the problems of documenting patterns of movement. This article highlights the methodological challenges of reconstructing trade routes in prehistory and early history. The argument is made that these challenges are best met through the application of modern models of connectivity, in combination with the conscious use of comparative approaches.

  15. K3 projective models in scrolls

    CERN Document Server

    Johnsen, Trygve

    2004-01-01

    The exposition studies projective models of K3 surfaces whose hyperplane sections are non-Clifford general curves. These models are contained in rational normal scrolls. The exposition supplements standard descriptions of models of general K3 surfaces in projective spaces of low dimension, and leads to a classification of K3 surfaces in projective spaces of dimension at most 10. The authors bring further the ideas in Saint-Donat's classical article from 1974, lifting results from canonical curves to K3 surfaces and incorporating much of the Brill-Noether theory of curves and theory of syzygies developed in the mean time.

  16. Trading on extinction: An open-access deterrence model for the South African abalone fishery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas J. Crookes

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available South African rhinoceros (e.g.Diceros bicornis and abalone (Haliotis midae have in common that they both are harvested under open-access conditions, are high-value commodities and are traded illegally. The difference is that a legal market for abalone already exists. An open-access deterrence model was developed for South African abalone, using Table Mountain National Park as a case study. It was found that illegal poaching spiked following the closure of the recreational fishery. The resource custodian's objective is to maximise returns from confiscations. This study showed that a legal trade results in a trading on extinction resource trap, with a race for profits, an increase in the probability of detection after a poaching event and the depletion of populations. In contrast with HS Gordon's seminal article (J Polit Econ 1954;62:124-142, profit maximisation does not automatically improve the sustainability of the resource. Under certain conditions (e.g. a legal trade with costly enforcement, profit maximisation may actually deplete abalone populations. The article also has implications for rhino populations, as a legal trade is currently proposed.

  17. Modelling regional trade of CO{sub 2} certificates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bueeler, B.; Bahn, O.; Kypreos, S. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    Many countries have developed energy models (such as MARKAL-MACRO---MM) to assess their energy policies, in particular concerning the curbing of their carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions. To integrate national MM models, we propose a multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO (3M) model. It enables one to study an international co-operation to curb jointly CO{sub 2} emissions through a market of emission permits. Furthermore, from a decision support perspective, the 3M model can be used to integrate aspects of ecological sustainability (in relation to global climate change issue), economic welfare, efficient resource use and technological innovation. To solve 3M, we follow two alternative mathematical methods. (author) 4 refs.

  18. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project and its environment. This limits the ability of an organisation to manage the larger dynamics between projects and organisations, over time, and between projects. The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to use literature on organisational theory to provide a more systematic understanding of this area. The organisational facilitators required to obtain value from a project are categorised, and the processes required to develop those facilitators are defined. This formalisation facilitates generalisation between projects and highlights any time and path dependencies required in developing organisational facilitators. The model therefore has the potential to contribute to the development of IS project management theory within dynamic organisational contexts. Six cases illustrate how this model could be used.

  19. A Cross-Cultural Multi-agent Model of Opportunism in Trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofstede, Gert Jan; Jonker, Catholijn M.; Verwaart, Tim

    According to transaction cost economics, contracts are always incomplete and offer opportunities to defect. Some level of trust is a sine qua non for trade. If the seller is better informed about product quality than the buyer, the buyer has to rely on information the seller provides or has to check the information by testing the product or tracing the supply chain processes, thus incurring extra transaction cost. An opportunistic seller who assumes the buyer to trust, may deliver a lower quality product than agreed upon. In human decisions to deceive and to show trust or distrust, issues like mutual expectations, shame, self-esteem, personality, and reputation are involved. These factors depend in part on traders' cultural background. This paper proposes an agent model of deceit and trust and describes a multi-agent simulation where trading agents are differentiated according to Hofstede's dimensions of national culture. Simulations of USA and Dutch trading situations are compared.

  20. Prediction of Pig Trade Movements in Different European Production Systems Using Exponential Random Graph Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Relun, Anne; Grosbois, Vladimir; Alexandrov, Tsviatko; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Jose M; Waret-Szkuta, Agnes; Molia, Sophie; Etter, Eric Marcel Charles; Martínez-López, Beatriz

    2017-01-01

    In most European countries, data regarding movements of live animals are routinely collected and can greatly aid predictive epidemic modeling. However, the use of complete movements' dataset to conduct policy-relevant predictions has been so far limited by the massive amount of data that have to be processed (e.g., in intensive commercial systems) or the restricted availability of timely and updated records on animal movements (e.g., in areas where small-scale or extensive production is predominant). The aim of this study was to use exponential random graph models (ERGMs) to reproduce, understand, and predict pig trade networks in different European production systems. Three trade networks were built by aggregating movements of pig batches among premises (farms and trade operators) over 2011 in Bulgaria, Extremadura (Spain), and Côtes-d'Armor (France), where small-scale, extensive, and intensive pig production are predominant, respectively. Three ERGMs were fitted to each network with various demographic and geographic attributes of the nodes as well as six internal network configurations. Several statistical and graphical diagnostic methods were applied to assess the goodness of fit of the models. For all systems, both exogenous (attribute-based) and endogenous (network-based) processes appeared to govern the structure of pig trade network, and neither alone were capable of capturing all aspects of the network structure. Geographic mixing patterns strongly structured pig trade organization in the small-scale production system, whereas belonging to the same company or keeping pigs in the same housing system appeared to be key drivers of pig trade, in intensive and extensive production systems, respectively. Heterogeneous mixing between types of production also explained a part of network structure, whichever production system considered. Limited information is thus needed to capture most of the global structure of pig trade networks. Such findings will be useful

  1. Egalitarian despots: hierarchy steepness, reciprocity and the grooming-trade model in wild chimpanzees, Pan troglodytes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaburu, Stefano S. K.; Newton-Fisher, Nicholas E.

    2014-01-01

    Biological market theory models the action of natural selection as a marketplace in which animals are viewed as traders with commodities to offer and exchange. Studies of female Old World monkeys have suggested that grooming might be employed as a commodity to be reciprocated or traded for alternative services, yet previous tests of this grooming-trade model in wild adult male chimpanzees have yielded mixed results. Here we provide the strongest test of the model to date for male chimpanzees: we use data drawn from two social groups (communities) of chimpanzees from different populations and give explicit consideration to variation in dominance hierarchy steepness, as such variation results in differing conditions for biological markets. First, analysis of data from published accounts of other chimpanzee communities, together with our own data, showed that hierarchy steepness varied considerably within and across communities and that the number of adult males in a community aged 20–30 years predicted hierarchy steepness. The two communities in which we tested predictions of the grooming-trade model lay at opposite extremes of this distribution. Second, in accord with the grooming-trade model, we found evidence that male chimpanzees trade grooming for agonistic support where hierarchies are steep (despotic) and consequent effective support is a rank-related commodity, but not where hierarchies are shallow (egalitarian). However, we also found that grooming was reciprocated regardless of hierarchy steepness. Our findings also hint at the possibility of agonistic competition, or at least exclusion, in relation to grooming opportunities compromising the free market envisioned by biological market theory. Our results build on previous findings across chimpanzee communities to emphasize the importance of reciprocal grooming exchanges among adult male chimpanzees, which can be understood in a biological markets framework if grooming by or with particular individuals is

  2. Egalitarian despots: hierarchy steepness, reciprocity and the grooming-trade model in wild chimpanzees, Pan troglodytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaburu, Stefano S K; Newton-Fisher, Nicholas E

    2015-01-01

    Biological market theory models the action of natural selection as a marketplace in which animals are viewed as traders with commodities to offer and exchange. Studies of female Old World monkeys have suggested that grooming might be employed as a commodity to be reciprocated or traded for alternative services, yet previous tests of this grooming-trade model in wild adult male chimpanzees have yielded mixed results. Here we provide the strongest test of the model to date for male chimpanzees: we use data drawn from two social groups (communities) of chimpanzees from different populations and give explicit consideration to variation in dominance hierarchy steepness, as such variation results in differing conditions for biological markets. First, analysis of data from published accounts of other chimpanzee communities, together with our own data, showed that hierarchy steepness varied considerably within and across communities and that the number of adult males in a community aged 20-30 years predicted hierarchy steepness. The two communities in which we tested predictions of the grooming-trade model lay at opposite extremes of this distribution. Second, in accord with the grooming-trade model, we found evidence that male chimpanzees trade grooming for agonistic support where hierarchies are steep (despotic) and consequent effective support is a rank-related commodity, but not where hierarchies are shallow (egalitarian). However, we also found that grooming was reciprocated regardless of hierarchy steepness. Our findings also hint at the possibility of agonistic competition, or at least exclusion, in relation to grooming opportunities compromising the free market envisioned by biological market theory. Our results build on previous findings across chimpanzee communities to emphasize the importance of reciprocal grooming exchanges among adult male chimpanzees, which can be understood in a biological markets framework if grooming by or with particular individuals is a

  3. 47 CFR 2.924 - Marketing of electrically identical equipment having multiple trade names and models or type...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Authorizations § 2.924 Marketing of electrically identical equipment having multiple trade names and models or... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Marketing of electrically identical equipment having multiple trade names and models or type numbers under the same FCC Identifier. 2.924 Section 2.924...

  4. UCH-II, private power project, Dera Murad Jamali, Pakistan. Export trade information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Energy Resources International and Power Development Company of Pakistan in association with General Electric Corporation, Inc. offers to build, finance, own and operate a 500+ MW combined cycle natural gas electric power plant, near Dera Murad Jamali, Pakistan. The basis for the undertaking is a carefully balanced and integrated series of contracts for fuel, power purchase, and implementation of the proposed project. The contracts would be established between the Government of Pakistan (GOP), its agencies and instrumentalities, Energy Resources International with Power Development Company and its associates, and a Project Company organized specifically for the undertaking. The report describes the project.

  5. Have Sanctions Modified Iran’s Trade Policy? An Evidence of Asianization and De-Europeanization through the Gravity Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liudmila Popova

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This study is an empirical attempt to find out whether under sanctions Iran’s trade direction has shifted away from Europe (trade policy of de-Europeanization towards Asia (trade policy of Asianization. The analysis is conducted using a panel-gravity trade model to analyze bilateral trade pattern between Iran and 50 countries from the EU and Asia during the period 2006–2013. To this end, the authors use an extended gravity model by adding new variables, including the index of Chinn–Ito (KAOPEN as an indicator of financial openness, and the composite trade intensity (CTI as an indicator of trade openness. Our findings reveal that the gravity equation fits the data reasonably well. The empirical evidence indicates a significant negative effect of sanctions on Iran–EU bilateral trade (by an average of 46.9%, while it has a positive impact on trade between Iran and the Asian countries (by an average of 85.2%. Overall, these findings confirm that the imposition of various sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program has pushed the country’s foreign trade to reorient away from Europe towards Asia.

  6. Modelling the economic trade-offs of irrigation pipeline investments ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Soil Water Irrigation Planning and Energy Management (SWIP-E) mathematical programming model was developed and applied in this paper to provide decision support regarding the optimal mainline pipe diameter, irrigation system delivery capacity and size of the irrigation system. SWIP-E unifies the interrelated ...

  7. Teaching mathematical modelling through project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomhøj, Morten; Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff

    2006-01-01

    are reported in manners suitable for internet publication for colleagues. The reports and the related discussions reveal interesting dilemmas concerning the teaching of mathematical modelling and how to cope with these through “setting the scene” for the students modelling projects and through dialogues......The paper presents and analyses experiences from developing and running an in-service course in project work and mathematical modelling for mathematics teachers in the Danish gymnasium, e.g. upper secondary level, grade 10-12. The course objective is to support the teachers to develop, try out...... in their own classes, evaluate and report a project based problem oriented course in mathematical modelling. The in-service course runs over one semester and includes three seminars of 3, 1 and 2 days. Experiences show that the course objectives in general are fulfilled and that the course projects...

  8. Musculoskeletal Modelling and the Physiome Project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fernandez, Justin; Zhang, Ju; Shim, Vickie; Munro, Jacob T.; Sartori, Massimo; Besier, Thor; Lloyd, David G.; Nickerson, David P.; Hunter, Peter; Pivonka, Peter

    2018-01-01

    This chapter presents developments as part of the International Union of Physiological Sciences (IUPS) Physiome Project. Models are multiscale, multispatial and multiphysics, hence, suitable numerical tools and platforms have been developed to address these challenges for the musculoskeletal system.

  9. Quark shell model using projection operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ullah, N.

    1988-01-01

    Using the projection operators in the quark shell model, the wave functions for proton are calculated and expressions for calculating the wave function of neutron and also magnetic moment of proton and neutron are derived. (M.G.B.)

  10. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. ... (decision-making, problem-solving, listening, verbal competency, motivation, persuasion, ... Keywords: Communication skills and leadership model, construction project management, ...

  11. Developing Project Duration Models in Software Engineering

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Pierre Bourque; Serge Oligny; Alain Abran; Bertrand Fournier

    2007-01-01

    Based on the empirical analysis of data contained in the International Software Benchmarking Standards Group(ISBSG) repository, this paper presents software engineering project duration models based on project effort. Duration models are built for the entire dataset and for subsets of projects developed for personal computer, mid-range and mainframeplatforms. Duration models are also constructed for projects requiring fewer than 400 person-hours of effort and for projectsre quiring more than 400 person-hours of effort. The usefulness of adding the maximum number of assigned resources as asecond independent variable to explain duration is also analyzed. The opportunity to build duration models directly fromproject functional size in function points is investigated as well.

  12. Modelling the Reduction of Project Making Duration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleinik Pavel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article points out why earlier patterns of investment process were ineffective in developing the construction projects and shows sources for reducing of its total duration. It describes the procedure of statistical modeling and obtaining medium-term time parameters required for modern pattern of project-making; offers design formulas for assessment of total time required for project-making as well as for its main stages; reveals advantage of modern system of project-making against traditional one by comparing indicators of their duration.

  13. A Trade Study of Thermosphere Empirical Neutral Density Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-01

    solar radio F10.7 proxy and magnetic activity measurements are used to calculate the baseline orbit. This approach is applied to compare the daily... approach is to calculate along-track errors for these models and compare them against the baseline error based on the “ground truth” neutral density data...n,m = Degree and order, respectively ′ = Geocentric latitude Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 2 λ = Geocentric

  14. Of Uberfleas and Krakens: Detecting Trade-offs Using Mixed Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Careau, Vincent; Wilson, Robbie S

    2017-08-01

    All animals experience performance trade-offs as they complete tasks such as capturing prey, defending territories, acquiring mates, and escaping predators. Why then, is it so hard to detect performance trade-offs at the whole-organismal level? Why do we sometimes even obtain positive correlations between two performance traits that are predicted to be negatively associated? Here we explore two plausible explanations. First, most analyses are based on individual maximal values (i.e., personal best), which could introduce a bias in the correlation estimates. Second, phenotypic correlations alone may be poor indicators of a trade-off when contrasting processes occur at the among- versus within-individual levels. One such scenario is the "big houses big cars" model developed in life-history theory to explain the existence of "uberfleas" that are superior in all regards (because they acquire more resources than others). We highlight that the exact opposite scenario might occur for performance trade-offs, where among-individual trade-offs may be masked by within-individual changes in physical condition. One of the best ways to test among these alternative scenarios is to collect repeated pairs of performance traits and analyze them using multivariate mixed models (MMMs). MMMs allow straightforward and simultaneous examination of trait correlations at the among- and within-individual levels. We use a simple simulation tool (SQuID package in R) to create a population of Krakens, a mythical giant squid-like sea creature whose morphology generates a performance trade-off between swimming speed and strength or ability to sink ships. The simulations showed that using individual maximum values introduces a bias that is particularly severe when individuals differ in the number of repeated samples (ntrial). Finally, we show how MMMs can help detect performance (or any other type of) trade-offs and offer additional insights (e.g., help detect plasticity integration). We hope

  15. A reaction-diffusion model for market fluctuations - A relation between price change and traded volumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuvan, Steven; Bier, Martin

    2018-02-01

    Two decades ago Bak et al. (1997) [3] proposed a reaction-diffusion model to describe market fluctuations. In the model buyers and sellers diffuse from opposite ends of a 1D interval that represents a price range. Trades occur when buyers and sellers meet. We show analytically and numerically that the model well reproduces the square-root relation between traded volumes and price changes that is observed in real-life markets. The result is remarkable as this relation has commonly been explained in terms of more elaborate trader strategies. We furthermore explain why the square-root relation is robust under model modifications and we show how real-life bond market data exhibit the square-root relation.

  16. Model-Based Engineering Design for Trade Space Exploration throughout the Design Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamassoure, Elisabeth S.; Wall, Stephen D.; Easter, Robert W.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents ongoing work to standardize model-based system engineering as a complement to point design development in the conceptual design phase of deep space missions. It summarizes two first steps towards practical application of this capability within the framework of concurrent engineering design teams and their customers. The first step is standard generation of system sensitivities models as the output of concurrent engineering design sessions, representing the local trade space around a point design. A review of the chosen model development process, and the results of three case study examples, demonstrate that a simple update to the concurrent engineering design process can easily capture sensitivities to key requirements. It can serve as a valuable tool to analyze design drivers and uncover breakpoints in the design. The second step is development of rough-order- of-magnitude, broad-range-of-validity design models for rapid exploration of the trade space, before selection of a point design. At least one case study demonstrated the feasibility to generate such models in a concurrent engineering session. The experiment indicated that such a capability could yield valid system-level conclusions for a trade space composed of understood elements. Ongoing efforts are assessing the practicality of developing end-to-end system-level design models for use before even convening the first concurrent engineering session, starting with modeling an end-to-end Mars architecture.

  17. Extending freight flow modelling to sub-Saharan Africa to inform infrastructure investments - trade data issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Havenga

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper highlights the first attempt by researchers at Stellenbosch University to model freight flows between and for 17 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA. The model will be informed by and linked to the South African surface Freight Demand Model (FDM given these dimensions. By analysing and collating available datasets and developing a freight flow model, a better understanding of freight movements between countries can be obtained and then used for long-term planning efforts. A simple methodology is envisaged that will entail a high-level corridor classification that links a major district in the country with a similar district in another country. Existing trade data will be used to corroborate new base-year economic demand and supply volumetric data that will be generated from social accounting matrices for each country. The trade data will also provide initial flow dynamics between countries that will be refined according to the new volumes. The model can then generate commodity-level corridor flows between SSA countries, and between SSA countries and the rest of the world, as well as intra-country rural and metropolitan flows, using a gravity-based modelling approach. This article outlines efforts to harmonise trade data between the 17 countries identified, as well as between these countries and the rest of the world as a first step towards developing a freight demand model for sub-Saharan Africa.

  18. A model for scheduling projects under the condition of inflation and under penalty and reward arrangements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.K. Jolayemi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A zero-one mixed integer linear programming model is developed for the scheduling of projects under the condition of inflation and under penalty and reward arrangements. The effects of inflation on time-cost trade-off curves are illustrated and a modified approach to time-cost trade-off analysis presented. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the model and its properties. The examples show that misleading schedules and inaccurate project-cost estimates will be produced if the inflation factor is neglected in an environment of high inflation. They also show that award of penalty or bonus is a catalyst for early completion of a project, just as it can be expected.

  19. POMP - Pervasive Object Model Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schougaard, Kari Rye; Schultz, Ulrik Pagh

    The focus on mobile devices is continuously increasing, and improved device connectivity enables the construction of pervasive computing systems composed of heterogeneous collections of devices. Users who employ different devices throughout their daily activities naturally expect their applications...... computing environment. This system, named POM (Pervasive Object Model), supports applications split into coarse-grained, strongly mobile units that communicate using method invocations through proxies. We are currently investigating efficient execution of mobile applications, scalability to suit...

  20. Cancer susceptibility and reproductive trade-offs: a model of the evolution of cancer defences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boddy, Amy M; Kokko, Hanna; Breden, Felix; Wilkinson, Gerald S; Aktipis, C Athena

    2015-07-19

    The factors influencing cancer susceptibility and why it varies across species are major open questions in the field of cancer biology. One underexplored source of variation in cancer susceptibility may arise from trade-offs between reproductive competitiveness (e.g. sexually selected traits, earlier reproduction and higher fertility) and cancer defence. We build a model that contrasts the probabilistic onset of cancer with other, extrinsic causes of mortality and use it to predict that intense reproductive competition will lower cancer defences and increase cancer incidence. We explore the trade-off between cancer defences and intraspecific competition across different extrinsic mortality conditions and different levels of trade-off intensity, and find the largest effect of competition on cancer in species where low extrinsic mortality combines with strong trade-offs. In such species, selection to delay cancer and selection to outcompete conspecifics are both strong, and the latter conflicts with the former. We discuss evidence for the assumed trade-off between reproductive competitiveness and cancer susceptibility. Sexually selected traits such as ornaments or large body size require high levels of cell proliferation and appear to be associated with greater cancer susceptibility. Similar associations exist for female traits such as continuous egg-laying in domestic hens and earlier reproductive maturity. Trade-offs between reproduction and cancer defences may be instantiated by a variety of mechanisms, including higher levels of growth factors and hormones, less efficient cell-cycle control and less DNA repair, or simply a larger number of cell divisions (relevant when reproductive success requires large body size or rapid reproductive cycles). These mechanisms can affect intra- and interspecific variation in cancer susceptibility arising from rapid cell proliferation during reproductive maturation, intrasexual competition and reproduction. © 2015 The Author

  1. Integrating semantic data models with project management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wachter, R

    1982-01-01

    Summary form only given, as follows. The development of a data model for a project on the test and certification of computer-based information systems required a more expressive data model than that supplied by either the network, hierarchical or relational models. A data model was developed to describe the work environment and the work itself. This model is based on the entity-relationship data model of Chen and on heuristic principles of knowledge organisation used in artificial intelligence. The ER data model is reviewed and the extensions to the model are discussed.

  2. A Goal Oriented Approach for Modeling and Analyzing Security Trade-Offs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elahi, Golnaz; Yu, Eric

    In designing software systems, security is typically only one design objective among many. It may compete with other objectives such as functionality, usability, and performance. Too often, security mechanisms such as firewalls, access control, or encryption are adopted without explicit recognition of competing design objectives and their origins in stakeholder interests. Recently, there is increasing acknowledgement that security is ultimately about trade-offs. One can only aim for "good enough" security, given the competing demands from many parties. In this paper, we examine how conceptual modeling can provide explicit and systematic support for analyzing security trade-offs. After considering the desirable criteria for conceptual modeling methods, we examine several existing approaches for dealing with security trade-offs. From analyzing the limitations of existing methods, we propose an extension to the i* framework for security trade-off analysis, taking advantage of its multi-agent and goal orientation. The method was applied to several case studies used to exemplify existing approaches.

  3. EXPENSES FORECASTING MODEL IN UNIVERSITY PROJECTS PLANNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei A. Arustamov

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with mathematical model presentation of cash flows in project funding. We describe different types of expenses linked to university project activities. Problems of project budgeting that contribute most uncertainty have been revealed. As an example of the model implementation we consider calculation of vacation allowance expenses for project participants. We define problems of forecast for funds reservation: calculation based on methodology established by the Ministry of Education and Science calculation according to the vacation schedule and prediction of the most probable amount. A stochastic model for vacation allowance expenses has been developed. We have proposed methods and solution of the problems that increase the accuracy of forecasting for funds reservation based on 2015 data.

  4. Water, Energy, and Food Nexus: Modeling of Inter-Basin Resources Trading

    Science.gov (United States)

    KIm, T. W.; Kang, D.; Wicaksono, A.; Jeong, G.; Jang, B. J.; Ahn, J.

    2016-12-01

    The water, energy, and food (WEF) nexus is an emerging issue in the concern of fulfilling the human requirements with a lack of available resources. The WEF nexus concept arises to develop a sustainable resources planning and management. In the concept, the three valuable resources (i.e. water, energy, and food) are inevitably interconnected thus it becomes a challenge for researchers to understand the complicated interdependency. A few studies have been committed for interpreting and implementing the WEF nexus using a computer based simulation model. Some of them mentioned that a trade-off is one alternative solution that can be taken to secure the available resources. Taking a concept of inter-basin water transfer, this study attempts to introduce an idea to develop a WEF nexus model for inter-basin resources trading simulation. Using the trading option among regions (e.g., cities, basins, or even countries), the model provides an opportunity to increase overall resources availability without draining local resources. The proposed model adopted the calculation process of an amount of water, energy, and food from a nation-wide model, with additional input and analysis process to simulate the resources trading between regions. The proposed model is applied for a hypothetic test area in South Korea for demonstration purposes. It is anticipated that the developed model can be a decision tool for efficient resources allocation for sustainable resources management. Acknowledgements This study was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of the Korean government.

  5. Agent-based model with asymmetric trading and herding for complex financial systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jun-Jie; Zheng, Bo; Tan, Lei

    2013-01-01

    For complex financial systems, the negative and positive return-volatility correlations, i.e., the so-called leverage and anti-leverage effects, are particularly important for the understanding of the price dynamics. However, the microscopic origination of the leverage and anti-leverage effects is still not understood, and how to produce these effects in agent-based modeling remains open. On the other hand, in constructing microscopic models, it is a promising conception to determine model parameters from empirical data rather than from statistical fitting of the results. To study the microscopic origination of the return-volatility correlation in financial systems, we take into account the individual and collective behaviors of investors in real markets, and construct an agent-based model. The agents are linked with each other and trade in groups, and particularly, two novel microscopic mechanisms, i.e., investors' asymmetric trading and herding in bull and bear markets, are introduced. Further, we propose effective methods to determine the key parameters in our model from historical market data. With the model parameters determined for six representative stock-market indices in the world, respectively, we obtain the corresponding leverage or anti-leverage effect from the simulation, and the effect is in agreement with the empirical one on amplitude and duration. At the same time, our model produces other features of the real markets, such as the fat-tail distribution of returns and the long-term correlation of volatilities. We reveal that for the leverage and anti-leverage effects, both the investors' asymmetric trading and herding are essential generation mechanisms. Among the six markets, however, the investors' trading is approximately symmetric for the five markets which exhibit the leverage effect, thus contributing very little. These two microscopic mechanisms and the methods for the determination of the key parameters can be applied to other complex

  6. Agent-based model with asymmetric trading and herding for complex financial systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-Jie Chen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: For complex financial systems, the negative and positive return-volatility correlations, i.e., the so-called leverage and anti-leverage effects, are particularly important for the understanding of the price dynamics. However, the microscopic origination of the leverage and anti-leverage effects is still not understood, and how to produce these effects in agent-based modeling remains open. On the other hand, in constructing microscopic models, it is a promising conception to determine model parameters from empirical data rather than from statistical fitting of the results. METHODS: To study the microscopic origination of the return-volatility correlation in financial systems, we take into account the individual and collective behaviors of investors in real markets, and construct an agent-based model. The agents are linked with each other and trade in groups, and particularly, two novel microscopic mechanisms, i.e., investors' asymmetric trading and herding in bull and bear markets, are introduced. Further, we propose effective methods to determine the key parameters in our model from historical market data. RESULTS: With the model parameters determined for six representative stock-market indices in the world, respectively, we obtain the corresponding leverage or anti-leverage effect from the simulation, and the effect is in agreement with the empirical one on amplitude and duration. At the same time, our model produces other features of the real markets, such as the fat-tail distribution of returns and the long-term correlation of volatilities. CONCLUSIONS: We reveal that for the leverage and anti-leverage effects, both the investors' asymmetric trading and herding are essential generation mechanisms. Among the six markets, however, the investors' trading is approximately symmetric for the five markets which exhibit the leverage effect, thus contributing very little. These two microscopic mechanisms and the methods for the

  7. Forecast Model of Russia’s Gross Domestic Product Depending on Financial Instruments of Trade in Energy and Commodities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samkov T.L.

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Methodology of forecasting the gross domestic product (GDP growth for complex socio-economic systems is projected on economic conditions of the Russian Federation. The most important factors affecting GDP change, development of a GDP forecast econometric model for the Russian economy and the methodology of the model use are identified. The model is used as a source of information necessary for the analysis of territorial multi-sectoral objects (ATMO model which we developed. ATMO model is the model of planning regional sectoral production systems of independent corporate participants and can predict their behavior utilizing game approach. Non-systemic "signal" information (GDP growth rate is necessary to change the strategies. The factors for predicting are the primary and secondary financial instruments of trade in energy and raw commodities. The principle of behavioral imitation is introduced for the first time in relation to a class of such tasks. Technology of decisions making corresponds to the knowledge of managers and officials rather than to that of analysts. The forecast model reflects the "ordinary" view of mentioned decision makers on the nature of GDP dependence on trade in specific goods (oil, gas, grain, gold, silver, copper, etc.. Almost any company leader will be able to use this set to forecast GDP as guidelines for further development of the enterprise. The ATMO model makes it possible to influence the economy to achieve macroeconomic goals and gives the opportunity to increase the available volumes of energy resources for export, e.g., for functioning of the emerging gas hub in EU.

  8. Trading strategies modeling in Colombian power market using artificial intelligence techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreno, Julian

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present a model based on fuzzy logic and machine learning in order to maximize the profits of Colombian energy trade agents according to their risk profile. The model has two parts, the first one is a fuzzy expert system that gives a recommendation about the trade strategy these agents should follow, and whose definition depends mainly on market conditions. The second one is a reinforced learning mechanism with which the agents 'learn' when they perceive the consequences of their actions, so they modify such actions looking for a reward not just in short but also in long-term. The whole model is validated using actual data as well as a simulation approach using synthetic time series for some relevant variables as hydraulic availability, energy pool price and bilateral contracts price. (author)

  9. Trading strategies modeling in Colombian power market using artificial intelligence techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moreno, Julian [Escuela de Sistemas, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Carrera 80 No. 65-223 Bloque M8A Medellin (Colombia)

    2009-03-15

    The aim of this paper is to present a model based on fuzzy logic and machine learning in order to maximize the profits of Colombian energy trade agents according to their risk profile. The model has two parts, the first one is a fuzzy expert system that gives a recommendation about the trade strategy these agents should follow, and whose definition depends mainly on market conditions. The second one is a reinforced learning mechanism with which the agents 'learn' when they perceive the consequences of their actions, so they modify such actions looking for a reward not just in short but also in long-term. The whole model is validated using actual data as well as a simulation approach using synthetic time series for some relevant variables as hydraulic availability, energy pool price and bilateral contracts price. (author)

  10. International trade in oil, gas and carbon emission rights: An intertemporal general equilibrium model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manne, A.S.; Rutherford, T.F.

    1994-01-01

    This paper employs a five-region intertemporal model to examine three issues related to carbon emission restrictions. First, we investigate the possible impact of such limits upon future oil prices. We show that carbon limits are likely to differ in their near- and long-term impact. Second, we analyze the problem of open-quotes leakageclose quotes which could arise if the OECD countries were to adopt unilateral limits upon carbon emissions. Third, we quantify some of the gains from trade in carbon emission rights. Each of these issues have been studied before, but to our knowledge this is the first study based on a multi-regional, forward-looking model. We show that sequential joint maximization can be an effective way to compute equilibria for intertemporal general equilibrium models of international trade. 18 refs., 10 figs

  11. The Impact of Sustainability on Global Trade: A Cross-Curricular Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Curt M.; Roy, Sharon

    2010-01-01

    One of the challenges in higher education is leading students in the application of information from one course to learning material in subsequent coursework. The authors have devised a joint project for courses in Logistics and Administrative Law to assist students in correlation of material in courses of two business majors, with emphasis on…

  12. Project-Based Emissions Trading. The Impact of Institutional Arrangements on Cost-Effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woerdman, E.; Van der Gaast, W.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we demonstrate that the institutional arrangement (or: design) of Joint Implementation (JI) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has a decisive impact on their cost-effectiveness. We illustrate our arguments by statistically analyzing the costs from 94 Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ) pilot phase projects as well as by adjusting these data on the basis of simple mathematical formulas. These calculations explicitly take into account the institutional differences between JI (sinks, no banking) and the CDM (banking, no sinks) under the Kyoto Protocol and also show the possible effects on credit costs of alternative design options. However, our numerical illustrations should be viewed with caution, because AIJ is only to a limited extent representative of potential future JI and CDM projects and because credit costs are not credit prices. Some of the main figures found in this study are: an average cost figure per unit of emission reduction for AIJ projects of 46 dollar per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent ($/Mg CO 2 -eq), an average potential JI credit cost figure which is lowered to 37 $/Mg CO 2 -eq by introducing banking and an average of 6 $/Mg CO 2 -eq per credit for potential low-cost CDM projects which includes sinks. However, at CoP6 in November 2000 in The Hague (The Netherlands), the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) did not (yet) reach consensus on the institutional details of the project-based mechanisms, such as the possible arrangement of early JI action or the inclusion of sinks under the CDM. 55 refs

  13. Streamline Your Project: A Lifecycle Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viren, John

    2000-01-01

    Discusses one approach to project organization providing a baseline lifecycle model for multimedia/CBT development. This variation of the standard four-phase model of Analysis, Design, Development, and Implementation includes a Pre-Analysis phase, called Definition, and a Post-Implementation phase, known as Maintenance. Each phase is described.…

  14. Model county ordinance for wind projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bain, D.A. [Oregon Office of Energy, Portland, OR (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Permitting is a crucial step in the development cycle of a wind project and permits affect the timing, cost, location, feasibility, layout, and impacts of wind projects. Counties often have the lead responsibility for permitting yet few have appropriate siting regulations for wind projects. A model ordinance allows a county to quickly adopt appropriate permitting procedures. The model county wind ordinance developed for use by northwest states is generally applicable across the country and counties seeking to adopt siting or zoning regulations for wind will find it a good starting place. The model includes permitting procedures for wind measurement devices and two types of wind systems. Both discretionary and nondiscretionary standards apply to wind systems and a conditional use permit would be issued. The standards, criteria, conditions for approval, and process procedures are defined for each. Adaptation examples for the four northwest states are provided along with a model Wind Resource Overlay Zone.

  15. Evaluating Trade Areas Using Social Media Data with a Calibrated Huff Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yandong Wang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Delimitating trade areas is a major business concern. Today, mobile communication technologies make it possible to use social media data for this purpose. Few studies however, have focused on methods to extract suitable samples from social media data for trade area delimitation. In our case study, we divided Beijing into regular grid cells and extracted activity centers for each social media user. Ten sample sets were obtained by selecting users based on the retail agglomerations they visited and aggregating user activity centers to each grid cell. We calculated distance and visitation frequency attributes for each user and each grid cell. The distance value of a grid cell is the average distance of user activity centers in this grid cell to a retail agglomeration. The visitation frequency of a grid cell refers to the average count of visits to retail agglomerations by user activity centers for a cell. The calculated attribute values of 10 sets were input into a Huff model and the delimitated trade areas were evaluated. Results show that sets obtained by aggregating user activity centers have a better delimitating effect than sets obtained without aggregation. Differences in the distribution and intensity of trade areas also became apparent.

  16. An inventory model with a new credit drift: Flexible trade credit policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankit Prakash Tyagi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In most of the published articles dealing with optimal order quantity model under permissible delay in payments, it is assumed that the supplier only put forwards fully permissible delay in payments if retailer ordered a bulky sufficient quantity otherwise permissible delay in payments would not be permitted. Practically, in competitive market environments and recession phases of business, every supplier wants to attract more retailers by the help of providing good facilities for trading. Necessity of order quantity may put a negative pressure on supplier’s demand. So, within the economic order quantity (EOQ framework the main purpose of this paper is to broaden this extreme case by introducing a new credit policy, Flexible Trade Credit Policy (FTCP, for supplier which can help him provide more free space of trading to retailers. This policy, after adopting by suppliers, not only provides attractive trading environments for retailers but also enhances the demand of supplier due to the large number of new retailers. Here in, under this policy, an inventory system is investigated as a cost minimization problem to establish the retailer’s optimal inventory cycle time and optimal order quantity. Three theorems are established to describe and to lighten optimal replenishment policies for the retailer. Finally, numerical examples are considered to illustrate all these theorems and managerial insights are given based on considered numerical examples.

  17. A stochastic conflict resolution model for trading pollutant discharge permits in river systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niksokhan, Mohammad Hossein; Kerachian, Reza; Amin, Pedram

    2009-07-01

    This paper presents an efficient methodology for developing pollutant discharge permit trading in river systems considering the conflict of interests of involving decision-makers and the stakeholders. In this methodology, a trade-off curve between objectives is developed using a powerful and recently developed multi-objective genetic algorithm technique known as the Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II). The best non-dominated solution on the trade-off curve is defined using the Young conflict resolution theory, which considers the utility functions of decision makers and stakeholders of the system. These utility functions are related to the total treatment cost and a fuzzy risk of violating the water quality standards. The fuzzy risk is evaluated using the Monte Carlo analysis. Finally, an optimization model provides the trading discharge permit policies. The practical utility of the proposed methodology in decision-making is illustrated through a realistic example of the Zarjub River in the northern part of Iran.

  18. Affective Policy Performance Evaluation Model: A Case of an International Trade Policy Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inwon Kang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Firms often superficially adopt policies because of governmental rules and regulations, so as to avoid penalties or to gain benefits. However, the evaluation and characterization of those kinds of adoptions as policy performance distorts the true level of policy performance: social sustainability. This study proposes an affective policy performance evaluation model. The attitudes of employees toward adopting a policy are characterized into genuine and superficial compliance. Their behaviors are explained through voluntary and opportunistic adoptions. In order to validate the proposed model, a survey was conducted on an international trade policy target group (n = 216 for the Strategic Trade Control System (STCS, in order to understand their attitudes toward adopting the policy. The survey data was analyzed by a structural equation modeling method. The measures of the factors in the proposed model are adopted and modified from existing studies. The most effective resources of policy implementation on the firms’ genuine and superficial compliance and ultimately on the firms’ voluntary policy adoption are revealed through the analysis. Based on the results, this study presents a strategy for allocating and managing policy implementation resources to exclusively encourage firms’ trade policy adoptions.

  19. Trade Barrier Elimination, Economics of Scale and Market Competition: Computable General Equilibrium Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Widyastutik Widyastutik

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The ASEAN and its dialogue partner countries agreed to reduce trade barriers in the services sector, one of which is sea transport services. The purpose of this study is to estimate the equivalent tax of non-tariff barriers in the sea transport services. Besides that, this study is going to analyze the economic impacts of the regulatory barriers elimination in the sea transport services of ASEAN and its dialogue partner countries. Using the gravity model, it can be identified that trade barriers of sea transport services sector of ASEAN and dialogue partner countries are still relatively high. Additionally, by adopting IC-IRTS model in Global CGE Model (GTAP, the simulation results show consistent results with the theory of pro-competitive effects. The greater gain from trade is obtained in the CGE model assuming IC-IRTS compared to PC-CRTS. China gains a greater benefit that is indicated by the highest increase in welfare and GDP followed by Japan and AustraliaDOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5279

  20. How Do Trading Firms Upgrade Skills and Technology: A Theoretical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojca Lindic

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the mechanisms of skill upgrading in trading firms by developing a theoretical model that relates the individual’s incentives for acquiring higher skills to the profit-maximizing behaviour of trading firms. The model shows that only the high ability individuals have incentives for acquiring higher skills, as long as they are compensated with higher wages after entering employment. Furthermore, high-productive firms have incentives for investing in higher technology, to employ high-skilled labour, and to engage in international trade. The decisions for technology dress-up and skill upgrading coincide with firm’s decisions to start importing and exporting as the latter requires higher technology and high-skilled labour. Contributions of the paper are twofold: gaining new insights by combining fragments of models on individual’s and firm’s behaviours, and broadening the content of the Melitz (2003 model by introducing importers and controlling for skilled and unskilled labour.

  1. Reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions by energy efficiency measures and international trading: A bottom-up modeling for the U.S. iron and steel sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Use ISEEM to evaluate energy and emission reduction in U.S. Iron and Steel sector. • ISEEM is a new bottom-up optimization model for industry sector energy planning. • Energy and emission reduction includes efficiency measure and international trading. • International trading includes commodity and carbon among U.S., China and India. • Project annual energy use, CO 2 emissions, production, and costs from 2010 to 2050. - Abstract: Using the ISEEM modeling framework, we analyzed the roles of energy efficiency measures, steel commodity and international carbon trading in achieving specific CO 2 emission reduction targets in the U.S iron and steel sector from 2010 to 2050. We modeled how steel demand is balanced under three alternative emission reduction scenarios designed to include national energy efficiency measures, commodity trading, and international carbon trading as key instruments to meet a particular emission restriction target in the U.S. iron and steel sector; and how production, process structure, energy supply, and system costs change with those scenarios. The results advance our understanding of long-term impacts of different energy policy options designed to reduce energy consumption and CO 2 emissions for U.S. iron and steel sector, and generate insight of policy implications for the sector’s environmentally and economically sustainable development. The alternative scenarios associated with 20% emission-reduction target are projected to result in approximately 11–19% annual energy reduction in the medium term (i.e., 2030) and 9–20% annual energy reduction in the long term (i.e., 2050) compared to the Base scenario

  2. A Case Study of the Accounting Models for the Participants in an Emissions Trading Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Deac

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available As emissions trading schemes are becoming more popular across the world, accounting has to keep up with these new economic developments. The absence of guidance regarding the accounting for greenhouse gases (GHGs emissions generated by the withdrawal of IFRIC 3- Emission Rights - is the main reason why there is a diversity of accounting practices. This diversity of accounting methods makes the financial statements of companies that are taking part in emissions trading schemes like EU ETS, difficult to compare. The present paper uses a case study that assumes the existence of three entities that have chosen three different accounting methods: the IFRIC 3 cost model, the IFRIC 3 revaluation model and the “off balance sheet” approach. This illustrates how the choice of an accounting method regarding GHGs emissions influences their interim and annual reports through the chances in the companies’ balance sheet and financial results.

  3. Binomial model for measuring expected credit losses from trade receivables in non-financial sector entities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branka Remenarić

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In July 2014, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB published International Financial Reporting Standard 9 Financial Instruments (IFRS 9. This standard introduces an expected credit loss (ECL impairment model that applies to financial instruments, including trade and lease receivables. IFRS 9 applies to annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2018 in the European Union member states. While the main reason for amending the current model was to require major banks to recognize losses in advance of a credit event occurring, this new model also applies to all receivables, including trade receivables, lease receivables, related party loan receivables in non-financial sector entities. The new impairment model is intended to result in earlier recognition of credit losses. The previous model described in International Accounting Standard 39 Financial instruments (IAS 39 was based on incurred losses. One of the major questions now is what models to use to predict expected credit losses in non-financial sector entities. The purpose of this paper is to research the application of the current impairment model, the extent to which the current impairment model can be modified to satisfy new impairment model requirements and the applicability of the binomial model for measuring expected credit losses from accounts receivable.

  4. A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH TO TRADE AND ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING IN THE MALAYSIAN ECONOMY

    OpenAIRE

    Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Jaafar, Abdul Hamid; Siwar, Chamhuri

    2008-01-01

    Environmental pollution is now a serious problem in many developing countries. One approach to mitigate the problem is to implement various pollution control policies. However, due to a lack of adequate quantitative models, the economic impacts and effectiveness of many pollution control policies are still unknown. Therefore, there is a greater need to know whether economic liberalization, trade, environment and social welfare can be joined in one direction under environmental taxation and po...

  5. A Newsboy Model with Quick Response under Sustainable Carbon Cap-N-Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinpyo Lee

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we consider a carbon emission cap-and-trade system in which the policymaker decides the cap for carbon emissions for each company and also has the power to regulate the carbon price in the carbon trading market for the purpose of minimizing total carbon emissions. We assume that there are n companies regulated in terms of carbon emissions by the policymaker, each of which emits carbon when producing its own product. After learning the carbon cap and carbon price regulated by the policymaker, each company makes simultaneous pricing and production decisions using the quick response strategy, and can trade some of its carbon emissions in the carbon market at the carbon price set by the policymaker, if the carbon emissions are below the cap. We model this non-cooperative game between the policymaker and companies as a Stackelberg game in which the policymaker is the leader and the companies are the followers. We show that there exists an equilibrium for the policymaker’s carbon pricing decisions and each company’s production and pricing decisions. From this equilibrium, we derive a carbon cap for the company at which the amount of traded carbon emissions is zero. This implies that some company’s production and pricing decisions, even under carbon emission restrictions, will be equal to those without the carbon emission restrictions. Also, we find that companies participating in the carbon cap-and-trade system would reduce their carbon emissions through reduced production, but can have a chance to improve profit through control of the product’s selling price.

  6. World Energy Projection System model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

    1997-09-01

    The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA

  7. World Energy Projection System model documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

    1997-09-01

    The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA.

  8. Beyond theory : Towards a probabilistic causation model to support project governance in infrastructure projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert

    2017-01-01

    A new project governance model for infrastructure projects is described in this paper. This model contains causal mechanisms that relate a number of project governance variables to project performance. Our proposed model includes relevant variables for measuring project governance in construction

  9. Cap-and-Trade Modeling and Analysis: Congested Electricity Market Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limpaitoon, Tanachai

    This dissertation presents an equilibrium framework for analyzing the impact of cap-and-trade regulation on transmission-constrained electricity market. The cap-and-trade regulation of greenhouse gas emissions has gained momentum in the past decade. The impact of the regulation and its efficacy in the electric power industry depend on interactions of demand elasticity, transmission network, market structure, and strategic behavior of firms. I develop an equilibrium model of an oligopoly electricity market in conjunction with a market for tradable emissions permits to study the implications of such interactions. My goal is to identify inefficiencies that may arise from policy design elements and to avoid any unintended adverse consequences on the electric power sector. I demonstrate this modeling framework with three case studies examining the impact of carbon cap-and-trade regulation. In the first case study, I study equilibrium results under various scenarios of resource ownership and emission targets using a 24-bus IEEE electric transmission system. The second and third case studies apply the equilibrium model to a realistic electricity market, Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) 225-bus system with a detailed representation of the California market. In the first and second case studies, I examine oligopoly in electricity with perfect competition in the permit market. I find that under a stringent emission cap and a high degree of concentration of non-polluting firms, the electricity market is subject to potential abuses of market power. Also, market power can occur in the procurement of non-polluting energy through the permit market when non-polluting resources are geographically concentrated in a transmission-constrained market. In the third case study, I relax the competitive market structure assumption of the permit market by allowing oligopolistic competition in the market through a conjectural variation approach. A short-term equilibrium

  10. Multilateral trade liberalization and public goods provision in a North-South trade model with nonhomothetic preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Stibora, J.J.; Vaal, A. de

    2012-01-01

    Under nonhomothetic preferences developing countries are less likely to gain from multilateral trade liberalization than developed countries. This paper shows that this relative disadvantage for developing countries changes when the effects on public good provision are taken into account. The impact it has depends on the strength of their comparative advantage in export markets. We show that a strong (weak) comparative advantage in export markets mitigates (reinforces) the relative disadvanta...

  11. PROJECT ACTIVITY ANALYSIS WITHOUT THE NETWORK MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Munapo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper presents a new procedure for analysing and managing activity sequences in projects. The new procedure determines critical activities, critical path, start times, free floats, crash limits, and other useful information without the use of the network model. Even though network models have been successfully used in project management so far, there are weaknesses associated with the use. A network is not easy to generate, and dummies that are usually associated with it make the network diagram complex – and dummy activities have no meaning in the original project management problem. The network model for projects can be avoided while still obtaining all the useful information that is required for project management. What are required are the activities, their accurate durations, and their predecessors.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsing beskryf ’n nuwerwetse metode vir die ontleding en bestuur van die sekwensiële aktiwiteite van projekte. Die voorgestelde metode bepaal kritiese aktiwiteite, die kritieke pad, aanvangstye, speling, verhasing, en ander groothede sonder die gebruik van ’n netwerkmodel. Die metode funksioneer bevredigend in die praktyk, en omseil die administratiewe rompslomp van die tradisionele netwerkmodelle.

  12. EUBIONET II. Efficient trading of biomass fuels and analysis of fuel supply chains and business models for market actors by networking. Final result-oriented report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alakangas, E.; Wiik, C.; Vesterinen, P. (and others)

    2008-02-15

    The project aimed to increase deployment of biomass fuels into European market and match technology uptake by means of market and policy analysis and other well-defined tasks to meet European policy targets in renewable energy sector. The project is to result as increased use of biomass fuels and market uptake of innovative bioenergy technologies. The objectives of the project were the following: 1) To give a clear outlook on current and future biomass fuel market trends. 2) To give feedback on the suitability of CEN 335 biofuel standard for trading of solid biofuels. 3) To provide well-analysed estimation on techno-economic potential of the biomass fuel volumes until 2010 based on the existing studies and experts opinions. Regarding the forest biomass sector, co-operation will be done with forest industry stakeholders to find proper balance between forest industry raw material and bioenergy usage. 4) To enhance biomass fuel trade and technology transfer by networking among different actors. 5) To analyse, select and describe the most suitable trading and business models for small- and largescale biofuel supply chains for heat and power production by taking into account the environmental aspects and sustainability. 6) To enhance biomass usage by the means of co-operation and information dissemination among different market actors in the fuel-utilisation chain. Target groups were biomass fuel traders and users, fuel producers and suppliers of different scales, policy makers in both current and new member states. Key associations, i.e. AEBIOM and CEPI, were participating in the project and disseminating information to various groups. The project has been structured in 5 workpackages. Project was carried out by 16 partners, which are the key national bioenergy organisations in the European countries and have a long co-operation relationship in previous bioenergy networks. The project has published summary reports and national report of each WP and this report is

  13. Modeling the future evolution of the virtual water trade network: A combination of network and gravity models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartori, Martina; Schiavo, Stefano; Fracasso, Andrea; Riccaboni, Massimo

    2017-12-01

    The paper investigates how the topological features of the virtual water (VW) network and the size of the associated VW flows are likely to change over time, under different socio-economic and climate scenarios. We combine two alternative models of network formation -a stochastic and a fitness model, used to describe the structure of VW flows- with a gravity model of trade to predict the intensity of each bilateral flow. This combined approach is superior to existing methodologies in its ability to replicate the observed features of VW trade. The insights from the models are used to forecast future VW flows in 2020 and 2050, under different climatic scenarios, and compare them with future water availability. Results suggest that the current trend of VW exports is not sustainable for all countries. Moreover, our approach highlights that some VW importers might be exposed to "imported water stress" as they rely heavily on imports from countries whose water use is unsustainable.

  14. Testing Software Development Project Productivity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipkin, Ilya

    Software development is an increasingly influential factor in today's business environment, and a major issue affecting software development is how an organization estimates projects. If the organization underestimates cost, schedule, and quality requirements, the end results will not meet customer needs. On the other hand, if the organization overestimates these criteria, resources that could have been used more profitably will be wasted. There is no accurate model or measure available that can guide an organization in a quest for software development, with existing estimation models often underestimating software development efforts as much as 500 to 600 percent. To address this issue, existing models usually are calibrated using local data with a small sample size, with resulting estimates not offering improved cost analysis. This study presents a conceptual model for accurately estimating software development, based on an extensive literature review and theoretical analysis based on Sociotechnical Systems (STS) theory. The conceptual model serves as a solution to bridge organizational and technological factors and is validated using an empirical dataset provided by the DoD. Practical implications of this study allow for practitioners to concentrate on specific constructs of interest that provide the best value for the least amount of time. This study outlines key contributing constructs that are unique for Software Size E-SLOC, Man-hours Spent, and Quality of the Product, those constructs having the largest contribution to project productivity. This study discusses customer characteristics and provides a framework for a simplified project analysis for source selection evaluation and audit task reviews for the customers and suppliers. Theoretical contributions of this study provide an initial theory-based hypothesized project productivity model that can be used as a generic overall model across several application domains such as IT, Command and Control

  15. Mathematical Modeling Projects: Success for All Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelton, Therese

    2018-01-01

    Mathematical modeling allows flexibility for a project-based experience. We share details of our regular capstone course, successful for virtually 100% of our math majors for almost two decades. Our research-like approach in this course accommodates a variety of student backgrounds and interests, and has produced some award-winning student…

  16. THE IMPACT OF COMPETITIVENESS ON TRADE EFFICIENCY: THE ASIAN EXPERIENCE BY USING THE STOCHASTIC FRONTIER GRAVITY MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Memduh Alper Demir

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to examine the bilateral machinery and transport equipment trade efficiency of selected fourteen Asian countries by applying stochastic frontier gravity model. These selected countries have the top machinery and transport equipment trade (both export and import volumes in Asia. The model we use includes variables such as income, market size of trading partners, distance, common culture, common border, common language and global economic crisis similar to earlier studies using the stochastic frontier gravity models. Our work, however, includes an extra variable called normalized revealed comparative advantage (NRCA index additionally. The NRCA index is comparable across commodity, country and time. Thus, the NRCA index is calculated and then included in our stochastic frontier gravity model to see the impact of competitiveness (here measured by the NRCA index on the efficiency of trade.

  17. An optimal control model for reducing and trading of carbon emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Huaying; Liang, Jin

    2016-03-01

    A stochastic optimal control model of reducing and trading for carbon emissions is established in this paper. With considerations of reducing the carbon emission growth and the price of the allowances in the market, an optimal policy is searched to have the minimum total costs to achieve the agreement of emission reduction targets. The model turns to a two-dimension HJB equation problem. By the methods of reducing dimension and Cole-Hopf transformation, a semi-closed form solution of the corresponding HJB problem under some assumptions is obtained. For more general cases, the numerical calculations, analysis and comparisons are presented.

  18. NASA's Aviation Safety and Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chidester, Thomas R.; Statler, Irving C.

    2006-01-01

    The Aviation Safety Monitoring and Modeling (ASMM) Project of NASA's Aviation Safety program is cultivating sources of data and developing automated computer hardware and software to facilitate efficient, comprehensive, and accurate analyses of the data collected from large, heterogeneous databases throughout the national aviation system. The ASMM addresses the need to provide means for increasing safety by enabling the identification and correcting of predisposing conditions that could lead to accidents or to incidents that pose aviation risks. A major component of the ASMM Project is the Aviation Performance Measuring System (APMS), which is developing the next generation of software tools for analyzing and interpreting flight data.

  19. An inexact fuzzy two-stage stochastic model for quantifying the efficiency of nonpoint source effluent trading under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, B.; Maqsood, I.; Huang, G.H.; Yin, Y.Y.; Han, D.J.

    2005-01-01

    Reduction of nonpoint source (NPS) pollution from agricultural lands is a major concern in most countries. One method to reduce NPS pollution is through land retirement programs. This method, however, may result in enormous economic costs especially when large sums of croplands need to be retired. To reduce the cost, effluent trading can be employed to couple with land retirement programs. However, the trading efforts can also become inefficient due to various uncertainties existing in stochastic, interval, and fuzzy formats in agricultural systems. Thus, it is desired to develop improved methods to effectively quantify the efficiency of potential trading efforts by considering those uncertainties. In this respect, this paper presents an inexact fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming model to tackle such problems. The proposed model can facilitate decision-making to implement trading efforts for agricultural NPS pollution reduction through land retirement programs. The applicability of the model is demonstrated through a hypothetical effluent trading program within a subcatchment of the Lake Tai Basin in China. The study results indicate that the efficiency of the trading program is significantly influenced by precipitation amount, agricultural activities, and level of discharge limits of pollutants. The results also show that the trading program will be more effective for low precipitation years and with stricter discharge limits

  20. Effective Application of Improved Profit-Mining Algorithm for the Interday Trading Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Lung Hsieh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Many real world applications of association rule mining from large databases help users make better decisions. However, they do not work well in financial markets at this time. In addition to a high profit, an investor also looks for a low risk trading with a better rate of winning. The traditional approach of using minimum confidence and support thresholds needs to be changed. Based on an interday model of trading, we proposed effective profit-mining algorithms which provide investors with profit rules including information about profit, risk, and winning rate. Since profit-mining in the financial market is still in its infant stage, it is important to detail the inner working of mining algorithms and illustrate the best way to apply them. In this paper we go into details of our improved profit-mining algorithm and showcase effective applications with experiments using real world trading data. The results show that our approach is practical and effective with good performance for various datasets.

  1. Effective application of improved profit-mining algorithm for the interday trading model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Yu-Lung; Yang, Don-Lin; Wu, Jungpin

    2014-01-01

    Many real world applications of association rule mining from large databases help users make better decisions. However, they do not work well in financial markets at this time. In addition to a high profit, an investor also looks for a low risk trading with a better rate of winning. The traditional approach of using minimum confidence and support thresholds needs to be changed. Based on an interday model of trading, we proposed effective profit-mining algorithms which provide investors with profit rules including information about profit, risk, and winning rate. Since profit-mining in the financial market is still in its infant stage, it is important to detail the inner working of mining algorithms and illustrate the best way to apply them. In this paper we go into details of our improved profit-mining algorithm and showcase effective applications with experiments using real world trading data. The results show that our approach is practical and effective with good performance for various datasets.

  2. Report on Lithium Ion Battery Trade Studies to Support the Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) Energy Storage Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Robert D.; Kissock, Barbara I.; Bennett, William R.

    2010-01-01

    This report documents the results of two system related analyses to support the Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) Energy Storage Project. The first study documents a trade study to determine the optimum Li-ion battery cell capacity for the ascent stage battery for the Altair lunar lander being developed under the Constellation Systems program. The battery cell capacity for the Ultra High Energy (UHE) Li-ion battery initially chosen as the target for development was 35 A-hr; this study concludes that a 19.4 A-hr cell capacity would be more optimum from a minimum battery mass perspective. The second study in this report is an assessment of available low temperature Li-ion battery cell performance data to determine whether lowering the operating temperature range of the Li-ion battery, in a rover application, could save overall system mass by eliminating thermal control system mass normally needed to maintain battery temperature within a tighter temperature limit than electronics or other less temperature sensitive components. The preliminary assessment for this second study indicates that the reduction in the thermal control system mass is negated by an increase in battery mass to compensate for the loss in battery capacity due to lower temperature operating conditions.

  3. A Reference-Dependent Regret Model for Deterministic Trade-off Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kujawski, Edouard

    2005-02-25

    Today's typical multi-criteria decision analysis is based on classical expected utility theory that assumes a mythical ''Rational Individual'' immune to psychological influences such as anticipated regret. It is therefore in conflict with rational individuals who trade-off some benefits and forgo the alternative with the highest total classical utility for a more balanced alternative in order to reduce their levels of anticipated regret. This paper focuses on decision making under certainty. It presents a reference-dependent regret model (RDRM) in which the level of regret that an individual experiences depends on the absolute values rather than the differences of the utilities of the chosen and forgone alternatives. The RDRM best choice may differ from the conventional linear additive utility model, the analytic hierarchy process, and the regret theory of Bell and Loomes and Sugden. Examples are presented that indicate that RDRM is the better predictive descriptor for decision making under certainty. RDRM satisfies transitivity of the alternatives under pairwise comparisons and models rank reversal consistent with observed reasonable choices under dynamic or distinct situations. Like regret theory, the RDRM utilities of all the alternatives under consideration are interrelated. For complex trade-off studies regret is incorporated as an element of a cost-utility-regret analysis that characterizes each alternative in terms of its monetary cost, an aggregate performance utility, and a regret value. This provides decision makers adequate information to compare the alternatives and depending on their values they may trade-off some performance and/or cost to avoid high levels of regret. The result is a well-balanced alternative often preferred by reasonable decision makers to the optimal choice of classical multi-attribute utility analysis. The model can readily be extended to incorporate rejoicing to suit decision makers who seek it. The

  4. The BioSCWG Project: Understanding the Trade-Offs in the Process and Thermal Design of Hydrogen and Synthetic Natural Gas Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Magdeldin

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a summary of the main findings from a collaborative research project between Aalto University in Finland and partner universities. A comparative process synthesis, modelling and thermal assessment was conducted for the production of Bio-synthetic natural gas (SNG and hydrogen from supercritical water refining of a lipid extracted algae feedstock integrated with onsite heat and power generation. The developed reactor models for product gas composition, yield and thermal demand were validated and showed conformity with reported experimental results, and the balance of plant units were designed based on established technologies or state-of-the-art pilot operations. The poly-generative cases illustrated the thermo-chemical constraints and design trade-offs presented by key process parameters such as plant organic throughput, supercritical water refining temperature, nature of desirable coproducts, downstream indirect production and heat recovery scenarios. The evaluated cases favoring hydrogen production at 5 wt. % solid content and 600 °C conversion temperature allowed higher gross syngas and CHP production. However, mainly due to the higher utility demands the net syngas production remained lower compared to the cases favoring BioSNG production. The latter case, at 450 °C reactor temperature, 18 wt. % solid content and presence of downstream indirect production recorded 66.5%, 66.2% and 57.2% energetic, fuel-equivalent and exergetic efficiencies respectively.

  5. Preliminary preview for a geographic and monitoring program project; a review of point source-nonpoint source effluent trading/offset systems in watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Alexander Warren; Bernknopf, Richard L.

    2003-01-01

    Watershed-based trading and offset systems are being developed to improve policy-maker?s and regulator?s ability to assess nonpoint source impacts in watersheds and to evaluate the efficacy of using market-incentive programs for preserving environmental quality. An overview of the history of successful and failed trading programs throughout the United States suggests that certain political, economic, and scientific conditions within a temporal and spatial setting help meet water quality standards. The current lack of spontaneous trading among dischargers does not mean that a marketable permit trading system is an inherently inefficient regulatory approach. Rather, its infrequent use is the result of institutional and informational barriers. Improving and refining the earth science information and technologies may help determine whether trading is a suitable policy for improving water quality. However, it is debatable whether or not environmental information is the limiting factor. This paper reviews additional factors affecting the potential for instituting a trading policy. The motivation for investigating and reviewing the history of offsets and trading was inspired by a project in the preliminary stages being developed by U.S. Geological Survey Western Geographic Science Center and the Environmental Protection Agency Region IX. An offset feasibility study will be an integrated, map-based approach that incorporates environmental, economic, and statistical information to investigate the potential for using offsets to meet mercury Total Maximum Daily Loads in the Sacramento River watershed. A regional water-quality offset program is being studied that may help known point sources reduce mercury loading more cost effectively by the remediation of abandoned mines or other diffuse sources as opposed to more costly treatment at their own sites. An efficient offset program requires both a scientific basis and methods to translate that science into a regulatory decision

  6. Computable general equilibrium modelling in the context of trade and environmental policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koesler, Simon Tobias

    2014-10-14

    This thesis is dedicated to the evaluation of environmental policies in the context of climate change. Its objectives are twofold. Its first part is devoted to the development of potent instruments for quantitative impact analysis of environmental policy. In this context, the main contributions include the development of a new computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which makes use of the new comprehensive and coherent World Input-Output Dataset (WIOD) and which features a detailed representation of bilateral and bisectoral trade flows. Moreover it features an investigation of input substitutability to provide modellers with adequate estimates for key elasticities as well as a discussion and amelioration of the standard base year calibration procedure of most CGE models. Building on these tools, the second part applies the improved modelling framework and studies the economic implications of environmental policy. This includes an analysis of so called rebound effects, which are triggered by energy efficiency improvements and reduce their net benefit, an investigation of how firms restructure their production processes in the presence of carbon pricing mechanisms, and an analysis of a regional maritime emission trading scheme as one of the possible options to reduce emissions of international shipping in the EU context.

  7. Computable general equilibrium modelling in the context of trade and environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koesler, Simon Tobias

    2014-01-01

    This thesis is dedicated to the evaluation of environmental policies in the context of climate change. Its objectives are twofold. Its first part is devoted to the development of potent instruments for quantitative impact analysis of environmental policy. In this context, the main contributions include the development of a new computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which makes use of the new comprehensive and coherent World Input-Output Dataset (WIOD) and which features a detailed representation of bilateral and bisectoral trade flows. Moreover it features an investigation of input substitutability to provide modellers with adequate estimates for key elasticities as well as a discussion and amelioration of the standard base year calibration procedure of most CGE models. Building on these tools, the second part applies the improved modelling framework and studies the economic implications of environmental policy. This includes an analysis of so called rebound effects, which are triggered by energy efficiency improvements and reduce their net benefit, an investigation of how firms restructure their production processes in the presence of carbon pricing mechanisms, and an analysis of a regional maritime emission trading scheme as one of the possible options to reduce emissions of international shipping in the EU context.

  8. Baltic Pathways from Liberal Trade Model to Neo-Mercantilism in the European Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viljar Veebel

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The economic progress of the Baltic States after the restoration of independence has been closely related to the liberal ideology and values of their economies: openness to investments, simple tax system and low tax burden, liberal trade policy, and flexible labour market. Unlike the Baltic States, some of their main partners in the European Union (EU have focused on promoting their economic growth by the neo-mercantilist way of expanding exports, supported by the economic structure of these countries exporting high technology and capital goods. As a result, when the Baltic States are expecting that in a broader context the other eu member states share the same vision of the liberal market economy, their motives have not been fully understood among their regional trade and cooperation partners. Current study will debate whether the practical implementation and needs of the European neo-mercantilism meet the economic and social needs of the Baltic States. Additionally, the study focuses on the question whether in practice the Baltic countries should be ready for the European neo-mercantilist project in upcoming years.

  9. Implementation of the model project: Ghanaian experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schandorf, C.; Darko, E.O.; Yeboah, J.; Asiamah, S.D.

    2003-01-01

    Upgrading of the legal infrastructure has been the most time consuming and frustrating part of the implementation of the Model project due to the unstable system of governance and rule of law coupled with the low priority given to legislation on technical areas such as safe applications of Nuclear Science and Technology in medicine, industry, research and teaching. Dwindling Governmental financial support militated against physical and human resource infrastructure development and operational effectiveness. The trend over the last five years has been to strengthen the revenue generation base of the Radiation Protection Institute through good management practices to ensure a cost effective use of the limited available resources for a self-reliant and sustainable radiation and waste safety programme. The Ghanaian experience regarding the positive and negative aspects of the implementation of the Model Project is highlighted. (author)

  10. North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Model-Model and Model-Data Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Post, W. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Cook, R. B.

    2009-05-01

    questions: 1. Do model results and observations show consistent spatial patterns in response to the 2002 drought? From measurements and model, can we infer what processes were affected by the 2002 drought? 2. What is the spatial pattern and magnitude of interannual variation in carbon sources and sinks? What are the components of carbon fluxes and pools that contribute to this variation? 3. What are the magnitudes and spatial distribution of carbon sources and sinks, and their uncertainties during the period 2000-2005? Examining and comparing results of inverse and forward model simulations with each other and with suitable benchmark spatial measurements help evaluate model strengths/weaknesses and utility, thereby providing multiple views of spatial and temporal patterns of fluxes, leading to better understandings of processes involved, and providing an improved basis for making projections.

  11. Thresholding projection estimators in functional linear models

    OpenAIRE

    Cardot, Hervé; Johannes, Jan

    2010-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimating the regression function in functional linear regression models by proposing a new type of projection estimators which combine dimension reduction and thresholding. The introduction of a threshold rule allows to get consistency under broad assumptions as well as minimax rates of convergence under additional regularity hypotheses. We also consider the particular case of Sobolev spaces generated by the trigonometric basis which permits to get easily mean squ...

  12. Food for thought: Overconfidence in model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith; Neuheimer, Anna; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2013-01-01

    There is considerable public and political interest in the state of marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent projections has been called into question. New information about declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and management failure is frequent...... be reliable and uncertainties arising from models and data shortcomings must be presented fully and transparently. Scientific journals play an important role and should require more detailed analysis and presentation of uncertainties....

  13. An EPQ Inventory Model with Allowable Shortages for Deteriorating Items under Trade Credit Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohreh Molamohamadi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to obtain the replenishment policy of a manufacturer under EPQ inventory model with backorder. It is assumed here that the manufacturer delays paying for the received goods from the supplier and the items start deteriorating as soon as they are being produced. Based on these assumptions, the manufacturer’s inventory model is formulated, and cuckoo search algorithm is applied then to find the replenishment time, order quantity, and selling price with the objective of maximizing the manufacturer’s total net profit. Besides, the traditional inventory system is shown as a special case of the proposed model in this paper, and numerical examples are given to demonstrate better performance of trade credit. These examples are also used to compare the results of cuckoo search algorithm with genetic algorithm and investigate the effects of the model parameters on its variables and net profit.

  14. Supply chain model with price- and trade credit-sensitive demand under two-level permissible delay in payments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giri, B. C.; Maiti, T.

    2013-05-01

    This article develops a single-manufacturer and single-retailer supply chain model under two-level permissible delay in payments when the manufacturer follows a lot-for-lot policy in response to the retailer's demand. The manufacturer offers a trade credit period to the retailer with the contract that the retailer must share a fraction of the profit earned during the trade credit period. On the other hand, the retailer provides his customer a partial trade credit which is less than that of the manufacturer. The demand at the retailer is assumed to be dependent on the selling price and the trade credit period offered to the customers. The average net profit of the supply chain is derived and an algorithm for finding the optimal solution is developed. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the coordination policy of the supply chain and examine the sensitivity of key model-parameters.

  15. Direct reciprocity stabilizes simultaneous hermaphroditism at high mating rates: A model of sex allocation with egg trading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henshaw, Jonathan M; Kokko, Hanna; Jennions, Michael D

    2015-08-01

    Simultaneous hermaphroditism is predicted to be unstable at high mating rates given an associated increase in sperm competition. The existence of reciprocal egg trading, which requires both hermaphroditism and high mating rates to evolve, is consequently hard to explain. We show using mathematical models that the presence of a trading economy creates an additional fitness benefit to egg production, which selects for traders to bias their sex allocation toward the female function. This female-biased sex allocation prevents pure females from invading a trading population, thereby allowing simultaneous hermaphroditism to persist stably at much higher levels of sperm competition than would otherwise be expected. More generally, our model highlights that simultaneous hermaphroditism can persist stably when mating opportunities are abundant, as long as sperm competition remains low. It also predicts that reciprocity will select for heavier investment in the traded resource. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  16. Modeling Change in Project Duration and Completion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiltshire, Travis; Butner, Jonathan E.; Pirtle, Zachary

    2017-01-01

    In complex work domains and organizations, understanding scheduleing dynamics can ensure objectives are reached and delays are mitigated. In the current paper, we examine the scheduling dynamics for NASA’s Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) activities. For this examination, we specifically modeled...... simultaneous change in percent complete and estimated duration for a given project as they were included in monthly reports over time. In short, we utilized latent change score mixture modeling to extract the attractor dynamics within the scheduling data. We found three primarily patterns: an attractor at low...

  17. The UK Earth System Model project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yongming

    2016-04-01

    In this talk we will describe the development and current status of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM). This project is a NERC/Met Office collaboration and has two objectives; to develop and apply a world-leading Earth System Model, and to grow a community of UK Earth System Model scientists. We are building numerical models that include all the key components of the global climate system, and contain the important process interactions between global biogeochemistry, atmospheric chemistry and the physical climate system. UKESM will be used to make key CMIP6 simulations as well as long-time (e.g. millennium) simulations, large ensemble experiments and investigating a range of future carbon emission scenarios.

  18. The Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Gil

    1999-01-01

    What does it take to create and implement a 7th to 8th grade middle school program where the great majority of students achieve at high academic levels regardless of their previous elementary school backgrounds? This was the major question that guided the research and development of a 7-year long project effort entitled the Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP) from September 1991 to August 1998. The CMSP effort conducted largely in two New York City public schools was aimed at creating and testing a prototype 7th and 8th grade model program that was organized and test-implemented in two distinct project phases: Phase I of the CMSP effort was conducted from 1991 to 1995 as a 7th to 8th grade extension of an existing K-6 elementary school, and Phase II was conducted from 1995 to 1998 as a 7th to 8th grade middle school program that became an integral part of a newly established 7-12th grade high school. In Phase I, the CMSP demonstrated that with a highly structured curriculum coupled with strong academic support and increased learning time, students participating in the CMSP were able to develop a strong foundation for rigorous high school coursework within the space of 2 years (at the 7th and 8th grades). Mathematics and Reading test score data during Phase I of the project, clearly indicated that significant academic gains were obtained by almost all students -- at both the high and low ends of the spectrum -- regardless of their previous academic performance in the K-6 elementary school experience. The CMSP effort expanded in Phase II to include a fully operating 7-12 high school model. Achievement gains at the 7th and 8th grade levels in Phase II were tempered by the fact that incoming 7th grade students' academic background at the CMSP High School was significantly lower than students participating in Phase 1. Student performance in Phase II was also affected by the broadening of the CMSP effort from a 7-8th grade program to a fully functioning 7-12 high

  19. The Effects of Liberalizing World Agricultural Trade: A Review of Modeling Studies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Arnold, Bruce

    2006-01-01

    A major issue on the agenda of the ongoing Doha Round of multilateral negotiations by members of the World Trade Organization concerns how and to what extent policies that affect agricultural trade should be liberalized...

  20. GASTALE. An oligopolistic model of production and trade in the European gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boots, M.G.; Rijkers, F.A.M.; Hobbs, B.F.

    2003-08-01

    The empirical model GASTALE is described and used to analyse the European natural gas market. These analyses focus primarily on the role of the downstream trading companies and their interaction with gas producers. By default, producers of natural gas are assumed to form an oligopoly in the paper. Meanwhile, downstream within-country traders of gas are represented in different versions of the model as local oligopolists or perfect competitors. The model therefore has a two-level structure, in which producers engage in competition a la Cournot, and each producer is a Stackelberg leader with respect to traders, who may be Cournot oligopolists or perfect competitors. The case of Cournot traders results in a new form of energy model, that of successive oligopoly. The model is formulated as a complementarity problem, and is solved by nonlinear programming. Considering this oligopolistic market structure, several tentative conclusions emerge. First, our model results show that successive oligopoly (so-called 'double marginalisation') yields significantly higher prices and lower consumer welfare than if oligopoly exists only on one level. Second, oligopoly in the trading market (because of the high concentration of traders) results in more distortion than oligopoly in production. Third, the level of traders' profits depends on the possibilities of discrimination on the border prices. If price discrimination by producers is allowed, these producers collect a greater share of the margins on end-use prices. Fourth, when the number of traders increases and assuming an oligopolistic downstream structure, end-use prices converge to prices corresponding with perfect competition. Thus, it is important to prevent (or abolish) monopolistic structures in the downstream gas market. In the case where oligopolistic competition among downstream gas companies cannot be prevented, vertical integration should be supported (or at least not be discouraged), especially if it would result in a

  1. Modeling future U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in wood energy consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; Andrew D. Kramp; Kenneth E. Skog; Do-il Yoo; V. Alaric Sample

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes an approach to modeling U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in domestic wood energy consumption under hypothetical future U.S. wood biomass energy policy scenarios. The U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM) was created to enhance the modeling of the U.S. forest sector within the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM), providing a...

  2. Trade Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Murray Gibbs

    2007-01-01

    In an otherwise insightful and thoughtful article, Sebastian Pfotenhauer (Trade Policy Is Science Policy,” Issues, Fall 2013) might better have entitled his contribution “Trade Policy Needs to Be Reconciled with Science Policy.” The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the agreements administered by the World Trade Organization, particularly the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT), were adopted to promote international trade and i...

  3. Project-matrix models of marketing organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gutić Dragutin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introduction of new products, modification of products, promotion, distribution etc. They rarely found it necessary to focus a bit more to different aspects of marketing management, for example: marketing planning and marketing control, marketing organization and leading. This paper deals with aspects of project - matrix marketing organization management. Two-dimensional and more-dimensional models are presented. Among two-dimensional, these models are analyzed: Market management/products management model; Products management/management of product lifecycle phases on market model; Customers management/marketing functions management model; Demand management/marketing functions management model; Market positions management/marketing functions management model. .

  4. Carbon emissions trading scheme exploration in China: A multi-agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Ling; Wu, Jiaqian; Yu, Lean; Bao, Qin

    2015-01-01

    To develop a low-carbon economy, China launched seven pilot programs for carbon emissions trading (CET) in 2011 and plans to establish a nationwide CET mechanism in 2015. This paper formulated a multi-agent-based model to investigate the impacts of different CET designs in order to find the most appropriate one for China. The proposed bottom-up model includes all main economic agents in a general equilibrium framework. The simulation results indicate that (1) CET would effectively reduce carbon emissions, with a certain negative impact on the economy, (2) as for allowance allocation, the grandfathering rule is relatively moderate, while the benchmarking rule is more aggressive, (3) as for the carbon price, when the price level in the secondary CET market is regulated to be around RMB 40 per metric ton, a satisfactory emission mitigation effect can be obtained, (4) the penalty rate is suggested to be carefully designed to balance the economy development and mitigation effect, and (5) subsidy policy for energy technology improvement can effectively reduce carbon emissions without an additional negative impact on the economy. The results also indicate that the proposed novel model is a promising tool for CET policy making and analyses. -- Highlights: •A multi-agent-based model is proposed for carbon emissions trading (CET) in China. •Three agents are included: government, firms in different sectors and households. •The impacts of CET on the economy and environment in China are analyzed. •Different CET designs are simulated to find an appropriate policy for China. •Results confirm the effectiveness of the model and give helpful insights into CET design

  5. Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

    1992-04-01

    This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

  6. An integrated radar model solution for mission level performance and cost trades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodge, John; Duncan, Kerron; Zimmerman, Madeline; Drupp, Rob; Manno, Mike; Barrett, Donald; Smith, Amelia

    2017-05-01

    A fully integrated Mission-Level Radar model is in development as part of a multi-year effort under the Northrop Grumman Mission Systems (NGMS) sector's Model Based Engineering (MBE) initiative to digitally interconnect and unify previously separate performance and cost models. In 2016, an NGMS internal research and development (IR and D) funded multidisciplinary team integrated radio frequency (RF), power, control, size, weight, thermal, and cost models together using a commercial-off-the-shelf software, ModelCenter, for an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar system. Each represented model was digitally connected with standard interfaces and unified to allow end-to-end mission system optimization and trade studies. The radar model was then linked to the Air Force's own mission modeling framework (AFSIM). The team first had to identify the necessary models, and with the aid of subject matter experts (SMEs) understand and document the inputs, outputs, and behaviors of the component models. This agile development process and collaboration enabled rapid integration of disparate models and the validation of their combined system performance. This MBE framework will allow NGMS to design systems more efficiently and affordably, optimize architectures, and provide increased value to the customer. The model integrates detailed component models that validate cost and performance at the physics level with high-level models that provide visualization of a platform mission. This connectivity of component to mission models allows hardware and software design solutions to be better optimized to meet mission needs, creating cost-optimal solutions for the customer, while reducing design cycle time through risk mitigation and early validation of design decisions.

  7. Building information models for astronomy projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariño, Javier; Murga, Gaizka; Campo, Ramón; Eletxigerra, Iñigo; Ampuero, Pedro

    2012-09-01

    A Building Information Model is a digital representation of physical and functional characteristics of a building. BIMs represent the geometrical characteristics of the Building, but also properties like bills of quantities, definition of COTS components, status of material in the different stages of the project, project economic data, etc. The BIM methodology, which is well established in the Architecture Engineering and Construction (AEC) domain for conventional buildings, has been brought one step forward in its application for Astronomical/Scientific facilities. In these facilities steel/concrete structures have high dynamic and seismic requirements, M&E installations are complex and there is a large amount of special equipment and mechanisms involved as a fundamental part of the facility. The detail design definition is typically implemented by different design teams in specialized design software packages. In order to allow the coordinated work of different engineering teams, the overall model, and its associated engineering database, is progressively integrated using a coordination and roaming software which can be used before starting construction phase for checking interferences, planning the construction sequence, studying maintenance operation, reporting to the project office, etc. This integrated design & construction approach will allow to efficiently plan construction sequence (4D). This is a powerful tool to study and analyze in detail alternative construction sequences and ideally coordinate the work of different construction teams. In addition engineering, construction and operational database can be linked to the virtual model (6D), what gives to the end users a invaluable tool for the lifecycle management, as all the facility information can be easily accessed, added or replaced. This paper presents the BIM methodology as implemented by IDOM with the E-ELT and ATST Enclosures as application examples.

  8. Uncertainty analysis for effluent trading planning using a Bayesian estimation-based simulation-optimization modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J L; Li, Y P; Huang, G H; Baetz, B W; Liu, J

    2017-06-01

    In this study, a Bayesian estimation-based simulation-optimization modeling approach (BESMA) is developed for identifying effluent trading strategies. BESMA incorporates nutrient fate modeling with soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), Bayesian estimation, and probabilistic-possibilistic interval programming with fuzzy random coefficients (PPI-FRC) within a general framework. Based on the water quality protocols provided by SWAT, posterior distributions of parameters can be analyzed through Bayesian estimation; stochastic characteristic of nutrient loading can be investigated which provides the inputs for the decision making. PPI-FRC can address multiple uncertainties in the form of intervals with fuzzy random boundaries and the associated system risk through incorporating the concept of possibility and necessity measures. The possibility and necessity measures are suitable for optimistic and pessimistic decision making, respectively. BESMA is applied to a real case of effluent trading planning in the Xiangxihe watershed, China. A number of decision alternatives can be obtained under different trading ratios and treatment rates. The results can not only facilitate identification of optimal effluent-trading schemes, but also gain insight into the effects of trading ratio and treatment rate on decision making. The results also reveal that decision maker's preference towards risk would affect decision alternatives on trading scheme as well as system benefit. Compared with the conventional optimization methods, it is proved that BESMA is advantageous in (i) dealing with multiple uncertainties associated with randomness and fuzziness in effluent-trading planning within a multi-source, multi-reach and multi-period context; (ii) reflecting uncertainties existing in nutrient transport behaviors to improve the accuracy in water quality prediction; and (iii) supporting pessimistic and optimistic decision making for effluent trading as well as promoting diversity of decision

  9. An analysis of Canada-US natural gas trade using the AGAS energy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quon, D.; Wong, S.

    1989-01-01

    The strength of AGAS is that it was structurally designed to address the primary issue of EMF9, namely the medium and long-term prospects for Canada-US natural gas trade. Consequently, it is one of the very few models with the following necessary features: (1) it treats all the regions of Canada and the United States as one continental entity, both with respect to demand and supply; (2) All regional supplies and demands are integrated. Hence, regional gas prices are endogenous; inter-regional gas flows, including Canadian-US gas exchanges, are endogenous. Models that do not have both of these features require that the answers that are being sought have to be specified exogenously. An iterative procedure can be used to reconcile unrealistic results but only with difficulty

  10. MODEL RANCANGAN SISTEM INFORMASI PROJECT MONITORING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanti Yanti

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Economic development makes the property industry growing very rapidly. The property development is supported by the development of contractor’s company that conducts property development. Inside the contracting company doing business can not perform their own procurement because of the many items that must be provided. For the purposes of the construction company entered into an agreement with the subcontractor as vendor conduct procurement in accordance with the needs of contracting companies. To simplify the procurement process, generally conducted by a process called a tender / auction. This is done by contracting companies to get quality and price in accordance with the desired budget. The company’s commitment subcontractors as the procurement of goods to be one key to successful contracting company doing business development process. Therefore, the subcontractor companies are required to have a good commitment. Therefore we need a project monitoring system that can monitor business processes running on those sub contractor company. The purpose of this research is to design a project monitoring information system in accordance with company requirements to operational activities more effective and efficient company.Keywords: project monitoring, design model, subcontractor

  11. Towards a greater understanding of the illicit tobacco trade in Europe: a review of the PMI funded ‘Project Star’ report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, Anna B; Rowell, Andy; Gallus, Silvano; Lugo, Alessandra; Joossens, Luk; Sims, Michelle

    2014-01-01

    Background Following a legal agreement with the European Union (EU), Philip Morris International (PMI) commissions a yearly report (‘Project Star’, PS) on the European illicit cigarette trade from KPMG, the global accountancy firm. Methods Review of PS 2010 report. Comparison with data from independent sources including a 2010 pan-European survey (N=18 056). Findings Within PS, data covering all 27 EU countries are entered into a model. While the model itself seems appropriate, concerns are identified with the methodologies underlying the data inputs and thus their quality: there is little transparency over methodologies; interview data underestimate legal non-domestic product partly by failing to account for legal cross-border sales; illicit cigarette estimates rely on tobacco industry empty pack surveys which may overestimate illicit; and there is an over-reliance on data supplied by PMI with inadequate external validation. Thus, PMI sales data are validated using PMI smoking prevalence estimates, yet PMI is unable to provide sales (shipment) data for the Greek islands and its prevalence estimates differ grossly from independent data. Consequently, comparisons with independent data suggest PS will tend to overestimate illicit cigarette levels particularly where cross-border shopping is frequent (Austria, Finland, France) and in Western compared with Eastern European countries. The model also provides data on the nature of the illicit cigarette market independent of seizure data suggesting that almost a quarter of the illicit cigarette market in 2010 comprised PMI's own brands compared with just 5% counterfeited PMI brands; a finding hidden in PMI's public representation of the data. Conclusions PS overestimates illicit cigarette levels in some European countries and suggests PMI's supply chain control is inadequate. Its publication serves the interests of PMI over those of the EU and its member states. PS requires greater transparency, external scrutiny and

  12. Developing models that analyze the economic/environmental trade-offs implicit in water resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howitt, R. E.

    2016-12-01

    Hydro-economic models have been used to analyze optimal supply management and groundwater use for the past 25 years. They are characterized by an objective function that usually maximizes economic measures such as consumer and producer surplus subject to hydrologic equations of motion or water distribution systems. The hydrologic and economic components are sometimes fully integrated. Alternatively they may use an iterative interactive process. Environmental considerations have been included in hydro-economic models as inequality constraints. Representing environmental requirements as constraints is a rigid approximation of the range of management alternatives that could be used to implement environmental objectives. The next generation of hydro-economic models, currently being developed, require that the environmental alternatives be represented by continuous or semi-continuous functions which relate water resource use allocated to the environment with the probabilities of achieving environmental objectives. These functions will be generated by process models of environmental and biological systems which are now advanced to the state that they can realistically represent environmental systems and flexibility to interact with economic models. Examples are crop growth models, climate modeling, and biological models of forest, fish, and fauna systems. These process models can represent environmental outcomes in a form that is similar to economic production functions. When combined with economic models the interacting process models can reproduce a range of trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives, and thus optimize social value of many water and environmental resources. Some examples of this next-generation of hydro-enviro- economic models are reviewed. In these models implicit production functions for environmental goods are combined with hydrologic equations of motion and economic response functions. We discuss models that show interaction between

  13. Demographic trade-offs in a neutral model explain death-rate--abundance-rank relationship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Kui; Zhang, Da-Yong; He, Fangliang

    2009-01-01

    The neutral theory of biodiversity has been criticized for its neglect of species differences. Yet it is much less heeded that S. P. Hubbell's definition of neutrality allows species to differ in their birth and death rates as long as they have an equal per capita fitness. Using the lottery model of competition we find that fitness equalization through birth-death trade-offs can make species coexist longer than expected for demographically identical species, whereas the probability of monodominance for a species under zero-sum neutral dynamics is equal to its initial relative abundance. Furthermore, if newly arising species in a community survive preferentially they are more likely to slip through the quagmire of rareness, thus creating a strong selective bias favoring their community membership. On the other hand, high-mortality species, once having gained a footing in the community, are more likely to become abundant due to their compensatory high birth rates. This unexpected result explains why a positive association between species abundance and per capita death rate can be seen in tropical-forest communities. An explicit incorporation of interspecific trade-offs between birth and death into the neutral theory increases the theory's realism as well as its predictive power.

  14. Geopolitical model of investment power station construction project implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malafeyev, Oleg; Farvazov, Konstantin; Zenovich, Olga; Zaitseva, Irina; Kostyukov, Konstantin; Svechinskaya, Tatiana

    2018-04-01

    Two geopolitical actors implement a geopolitical project that involves transportaion and storage of some commodities. They interact with each other through a transport network. The network consists of several interconnected vertices. Some of the vetrices are trading hubs, storage spaces, production hubs and goods buyers. Actors wish to satify the demand of buyers and recieve the highest possible profit subject to compromise solution principle. A numerical example is given.

  15. Expatriates and trade

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Konečný, Tomáš

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 1 (2012), s. 83-98 ISSN 1488-3473 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : migration * trade * informal trade barriers Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  16. Expatriates and trade

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Konečný, Tomáš

    -, č. 387 (2009), s. 1-29 ISSN 1211-3298 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Grant - others:GA UK(CZ) 118909 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : international trade * migration * informal trade barriers Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp387.pdf

  17. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Quella, Thomas [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Saleur, Hubert [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Inst. de Physique Theorique; USC, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Physics Dept.

    2009-08-15

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle {theta}. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  18. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker; Quella, Thomas; Saleur, Hubert; USC, Los Angeles, CA

    2009-08-01

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP S-1 vertical stroke S gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle θ. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP S-1 vertical stroke S model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  19. What is the appropriate counterfactual when estimating effects of multilateral trade policy reform?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Kym; Jensen, Hans Grinsted; Nelgen, Signe

    2016-01-01

    the counterfactual price distortions in 2030 are shown to be much larger in the case where agricultural protection grows endogenously than in the case assuming no policy changes over the projection period. This suggests the traditional way of estimating effects of a multilateral agricultural trade agreement may...... of the DDA’s possible effects thus requires first modelling the world economy to 2030 and, in that process, projecting what trade-related policies might be by then without a DDA. Typically, modelers assume the counterfactual policy regime to be a ‘business-as-usual’ projection assuming the status quo. Yet we...... by projecting the world economy to 2030 using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model with those two alternative policy regimes and then simulating a move to global free trade (the maximum benefit from a multilateral trade reform) in each of those two cases. The welfare effects of removing...

  20. THE METHOD OF CONSTRUCTING MODELS OF STRESS-TESTING OF THE TRADING PORTFOLIO OF FINANCIAL ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alimbaev Farkhad

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The financial crisis gave an impetus to finding “weaknesses” in financial institutions. One such tool is the stress-testing. This method is intended to identify through modeling “hypothetical” or “historical” scenarios, the most losses, in the execution of a script. In the simulation of hypothetical scenarios to find the impact factor, as shock events on the trade portfolio. When using historical scenarios, as the shocks applied developments in the past that have caused catastrophic losses, both in quantitative and qualitative size. For example, such scenarios can be: financial crises of the 90-ies and the current decline in international stock markets, a drop or increase in foreign exchange rates, etc.

  1. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-01-01

    The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project ...

  2. Trading speed and accuracy by coding time: a coupled-circuit cortical model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominic Standage

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Our actions take place in space and time, but despite the role of time in decision theory and the growing acknowledgement that the encoding of time is crucial to behaviour, few studies have considered the interactions between neural codes for objects in space and for elapsed time during perceptual decisions. The speed-accuracy trade-off (SAT provides a window into spatiotemporal interactions. Our hypothesis is that temporal coding determines the rate at which spatial evidence is integrated, controlling the SAT by gain modulation. Here, we propose that local cortical circuits are inherently suited to the relevant spatial and temporal coding. In simulations of an interval estimation task, we use a generic local-circuit model to encode time by 'climbing' activity, seen in cortex during tasks with a timing requirement. The model is a network of simulated pyramidal cells and inhibitory interneurons, connected by conductance synapses. A simple learning rule enables the network to quickly produce new interval estimates, which show signature characteristics of estimates by experimental subjects. Analysis of network dynamics formally characterizes this generic, local-circuit timing mechanism. In simulations of a perceptual decision task, we couple two such networks. Network function is determined only by spatial selectivity and NMDA receptor conductance strength; all other parameters are identical. To trade speed and accuracy, the timing network simply learns longer or shorter intervals, driving the rate of downstream decision processing by spatially non-selective input, an established form of gain modulation. Like the timing network's interval estimates, decision times show signature characteristics of those by experimental subjects. Overall, we propose, demonstrate and analyse a generic mechanism for timing, a generic mechanism for modulation of decision processing by temporal codes, and we make predictions for experimental verification.

  3. Project AProWa: a national view on managing trade-offs between agricultural production and conservation of aquatic ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietzel, Anne; Rahn, Eric; Stamm, Christian

    2014-05-01

    for irrigation can already be documented. Due to drier summers induced by climate change, this phenomenon is expected to gain more importance in the future. Related to water quantity and quality it is crucial to think about the diverging interests between the supply of the population with national agricultural products and the preservation of the water bodies, their ecological value and their other ecosystem services (e.g. drinking water supply). The project AProWa attempts to elucidate trade-offs of national goals for water protection and agricultural production in Switzerland by involving stakeholders from agricultural administration (Federal Office for Agriculture, FOAG), agricultural research (Agroscope), water research (Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Eawag) and environmental protection (Federal Office for the Environment, FOEN). This is done by applying multi-criteria decision analysis facilitating consensus regarding goals and possible activities and alternatives to reach these goals. This is followed by an evaluation of main conflicts and prioritized research gaps. We present preliminary results from workshops and interdisciplinary discussion groups that encompass an objectives hierarchy reflecting agricultural production and water conservation goals. Furthermore, an inventory of agricultural practices and water protection measures is presented, enabling their evaluation for the provision of agricultural production while sustaining aquatic ecosystems.

  4. The Agriculture Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.

    2010-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and world agricultural trade modeling groups around the world. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Historical period results will spur model improvement and interaction among major modeling groups, while future period results will lead directly to tests of adaptation and mitigation strategies across a range of scales. AgMIP will consist of a multi-scale impact assessment utilizing the latest methods for climate and agricultural scenario generation. Scenarios and modeling protocols will be distributed on the web, and multi-model results will be collated and analyzed to ensure the widest possible coverage of agricultural crops and regions. AgMIP will place regional changes in agricultural production in a global context that reflects new trading opportunities, imbalances, and shortages in world markets resulting from climate change and other driving forces for food supply. Such projections are essential inputs from the Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation (VIA) research community to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (AR5), now underway, and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. They will set the context for local-scale vulnerability and adaptation studies, supply test scenarios for national-scale development of trade policy instruments, provide critical information on changing supply and demand for water resources, and elucidate interactive effects of climate change and land use change. AgMIP will not only provide crucially-needed new global estimates of how climate change will affect food supply and hunger in the

  5. Permit trading and credit trading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Jan-Tjeerd; R. Dijstra, Bouwe

    This paper compares emissions trading based on a cap on total emissions (permit trading) and on relative standards per unit of output (credit trading). Two types of market structure are considered: perfect competition and Cournot oligopoly. We find that output, abatement costs and the number...... of firms are higher under credit trading. Allowing trade between permit-trading and credit-trading sectors may increase in welfare. With perfect competition, permit trading always leads to higher welfare than credit trading. With imperfect competition, credit trading may outperform permit trading....... Environmental policy can lead to exit, but also to entry of firms. Entry and exit have a profound impact on the performance of the schemes, especially under imperfect competition. We find that it may be impossible to implement certain levels of total industry emissions. Under credit trading several levels...

  6. An Optimization Scheduling Model for Wind Power and Thermal Power with Energy Storage System considering Carbon Emission Trading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan-huan Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Wind power has the characteristics of randomness and intermittence, which influences power system safety and stable operation. To alleviate the effect of wind power grid connection and improve power system’s wind power consumptive capability, this paper took emission trading and energy storage system into consideration and built an optimization model for thermal-wind power system and energy storage systems collaborative scheduling. A simulation based on 10 thermal units and wind farms with 2800 MW installed capacity verified the correctness of the models put forward by this paper. According to the simulation results, the introduction of carbon emission trading can improve wind power consumptive capability and cut down the average coal consumption per unit of power. The introduction of energy storage system can smooth wind power output curve and suppress power fluctuations. The optimization effects achieve the best when both of carbon emission trading and energy storage system work at the same time.

  7. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database User's Guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.L.

    1993-10-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) specifically to address Hanford solid waste management issues. This document is one of a set of documents supporting the SWPM system and providing instructions in the use and maintenance of SWPM components. This manual contains instructions for using Version 1.4 of the SWPM database: system requirements and preparation, entering and maintaining data, and performing routine database functions. This document supports only those operations which are specific to SWPM database menus and functions and does not Provide instruction in the use of Paradox, the database management system in which the SWPM database is established

  8. Projecting surgeon supply using a dynamic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraher, Erin P; Knapton, Andy; Sheldon, George F; Meyer, Anthony; Ricketts, Thomas C

    2013-05-01

    To develop a projection model to forecast the head count and full-time equivalent supply of surgeons by age, sex, and specialty in the United States from 2009 to 2028. The search for the optimal number and specialty mix of surgeons to care for the United States population has taken on increased urgency under health care reform. Expanded insurance coverage and an aging population will increase demand for surgical and other medical services. Accurate forecasts of surgical service capacity are crucial to inform the federal government, training institutions, professional associations, and others charged with improving access to health care. The study uses a dynamic stock and flow model that simulates future changes in numbers and specialty type by factoring in changes in surgeon demographics and policy factors. : Forecasts show that overall surgeon supply will decrease 18% during the period form 2009 to 2028 with declines in all specialties except colorectal, pediatric, neurological surgery, and vascular surgery. Model simulations suggest that none of the proposed changes to increase graduate medical education currently under consideration will be sufficient to offset declines. The length of time it takes to train surgeons, the anticipated decrease in hours worked by surgeons in younger generations, and the potential decreases in graduate medical education funding suggest that there may be an insufficient surgeon workforce to meet population needs. Existing maldistribution patterns are likely to be exacerbated, leading to delayed or lost access to time-sensitive surgical procedures, particularly in rural areas.

  9. Why are Trade Agreements Regional?

    OpenAIRE

    Zissimos, Ben

    2007-01-01

    This paper shows how distance may be used to coordinate on a unique equilibrium in which trade agreements are regional. Trade agreement formation is modeled as coalition formation. In a standard trade model with no distance between countries, a familiar problem of coordination failure arises giving rise to multiple equilibria; any one of many possible trade agreements can form. With distance between countries, and through strategic interaction in tariff setting, regional trade agreements gene...

  10. Comparative assessment of hydrogen storage and international electricity trade for a Danish energy system with wind power and hydrogen/fuel cell technologies. Final project report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, Bent (Roskilde University, Energy, Environment and Climate Group, Dept. of Environmental, Social and Spatial Change (ENSPAC) (DK)); Meibom, P.; Nielsen, Lars Henrik; Karlsson, K. (Technical Univ. of Denmark, Risoe National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Systems Analysis Dept., Roskilde (DK)); Hauge Pedersen, A. (DONG Energy, Copenhagen (DK)); Lindboe, H.H.; Bregnebaek, L. (ea Energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK))

    2008-02-15

    This report is the final outcome of a project carried out under the Danish Energy Agency's Energy Research Programme. The aims of the project can be summarized as follows: 1) Simulation of an energy system with a large share of wind power and possibly hydrogen, including economic optimization through trade at the Nordic power pool (exchange market) and/or use of hydrogen storage. The time horizon is 50 years. 2) Formulating new scenarios for situations with and without development of viable fuel cell technologies. 3) Updating software to solve the abovementioned problems. The project has identified a range of scenarios for all parts of the energy system, including most visions of possible future developments. (BA)

  11. The study of the risk management model of construction project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Bo; Feng Yanping; Liu Changbin

    2010-01-01

    The paper first analyzed the development of the risk management of construction project and the risk management processes, and then briefly introduced the risk management experience of foreign project management. From the project management by objectives point of view, the greatest risk came from the lack of clarity of the objectives in the project management, which led to the project's risk emergence. In the analysis of the principles of the project objectives identification and risk allocation, the paper set up a project management model which insurance companies involved in the whole process of the project management, and simply analyzed the roles of insurance company at last. (authors)

  12. A Spatial-Filtering Zero-Inflated Approach to the Estimation of the Gravity Model of Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodolfo Metulini

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Nonlinear estimation of the gravity model with Poisson-type regression methods has become popular for modelling international trade flows, because it permits a better accounting for zero flows and extreme values in the distribution tail. Nevertheless, as trade flows are not independent from each other due to spatial and network autocorrelation, these methods may lead to biased parameter estimates. To overcome this problem, eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF variants of the Poisson/negative binomial specifications have been proposed in the literature on gravity modelling of trade. However, no specific treatment has been developed for cases in which many zero flows are present. This paper contributes to the literature in two ways. First, by employing a stepwise selection criterion for spatial filters that is based on robust (sandwich p-values and does not require likelihood-based indicators. In this respect, we develop an ad hoc backward stepwise function in R. Second, using this function, we select a reduced set of spatial filters that properly accounts for importer-side and exporter-side specific spatial effects, as well as network effects, both at the count and the logit processes of zero-inflated methods. Applying this estimation strategy to a cross-section of bilateral trade flows between a set of 64 countries for the year 2000, we find that our specification outperforms the benchmark models in terms of model fitting, both considering the AIC and in predicting zero (and small flows.

  13. Incorporating socio-environmental considerations into project assessment models using multi-criteria analysis: A case study of Sri Lankan hydropower projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morimoto, Risako

    2013-01-01

    Before commissioning any energy projects, conducting robust assessments of different options in terms of their economic and socio-environmental impacts is important for successful project implementation. Yet, there is currently a lack of tools that simultaneously assess sustainability impacts; instead, they are often investigated separately, which gives decision makers somehow disintegrated information. Thus the main objective of this study is to examine how to incorporate socio-environmental considerations into project assessment models. The multi-criteria analysis is applied to the case study of Sri Lankan hydropower projects as an illustrative example. The estimated quantitative relationship between economic, environmental and social impacts of hydropower development is presented in this study. Such estimation, using sustainability indicators of hydropower projects, enables us to understand marginal trade-offs among economic, environmental and social objectives of hydropower development. Hence, this would provide an overview of potential impacts of different scenarios that are designed to be implemented and indicate an optimum mix of hydropower generation. - Highlights: • This study provides an effective hydropower project evaluation method using the MCA. • The proposed tool shows the quantitative relationship explicitly. • Marginal trade-offs between sustainability objectives are presented

  14. Trading stages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Uli; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim

    2012-01-01

    Interest in stage-and age structured models has recently increased because they can describe quantitative traits such as size that are left out of age-only demography. Available methods for the analysis of effects of vital rates on lifespan in stage-structured models have not been widely applied ...... examples. Much of our approach relies on trading of time and mortality risk in one stage for time and risk in others. Our approach contributes to the new framework of the study of age- and stage-structured biodemography....

  15. Logistics of Mathematical Modeling-Focused Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwood, R. Corban

    2018-01-01

    This article addresses the logistics of implementing projects in an undergraduate mathematics class and is intended both for new instructors and for instructors who have had negative experiences implementing projects in the past. Project implementation is given for both lower- and upper-division mathematics courses with an emphasis on mathematical…

  16. An EPQ Model with Increasing Demand and Demand Dependent Production Rate under Trade Credit Financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juanjuan QIN

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates an EPQ model with the increasing demand and demand dependent production rate involving the trade credit financing policy, which is seldom reported in the literatures. The model considers the manufacturer was offered by the supplier a delayed payment time. It is assumed that the demand is a linear increasing function of the time and the production rate is proportional to the demand. That is, the production rate is also a linear function of time. This study attempts to offer a best policy for the replenishment cycle and the order quantity for the manufacturer to maximum its profit per cycle. First, the inventory model is developed under the above situation. Second, some useful theoretical results have been derived to characterize the optimal solutions for the inventory system. The Algorithm is proposed to obtain the optimal solutions of the manufacturer. Finally, the numerical examples are carried out to illustrate the theorems, and the sensitivity analysis of the optimal solutions with respect to the parameters of the inventory system is performed. Some important management insights are obtained based on the analysis.

  17. A methodology for assessing the market benefits of alternative motor fuels: The Alternative Fuels Trade Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leiby, P.N.

    1993-09-01

    This report describes a modeling methodology for examining the prospective economic benefits of displacing motor gasoline use by alternative fuels. The approach is based on the Alternative Fuels Trade Model (AFTM). AFTM development was undertaken by the US Department of Energy (DOE) as part of a longer term study of alternative fuels issues. The AFTM is intended to assist with evaluating how alternative fuels may be promoted effectively, and what the consequences of substantial alternative fuels use might be. Such an evaluation of policies and consequences of an alternative fuels program is being undertaken by DOE as required by Section 502(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992. Interest in alternative fuels is based on the prospective economic, environmental and energy security benefits from the substitution of these fuels for conventional transportation fuels. The transportation sector is heavily dependent on oil. Increased oil use implies increased petroleum imports, with much of the increase coming from OPEC countries. Conversely, displacement of gasoline has the potential to reduce US petroleum imports, thereby reducing reliance on OPEC oil and possibly weakening OPEC`s ability to extract monopoly profits. The magnitude of US petroleum import reduction, the attendant fuel price changes, and the resulting US benefits, depend upon the nature of oil-gas substitution and the supply and demand behavior of other world regions. The methodology applies an integrated model of fuel market interactions to characterize these effects.

  18. Privacy and security perceptions of european citizens: A test of the trade-off model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friedewald, M.; Lieshout, M. van; Rung, S.; Ooms, M.; Ypma, J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the relationship between privacy and security and, in particular, the traditional “trade-off” paradigm that argues that citizens might be willing to sacrifice some privacy for more security. Academics have long argued against the trade-off paradigm, but these arguments have

  19. Modelling in Evaluating a Working Life Project in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarja, Anneli; Janhonen, Sirpa; Havukainen, Pirjo; Vesterinen, Anne

    2012-01-01

    This article describes an evaluation method based on collaboration between the higher education, a care home and university, in a R&D project. The aim of the project was to elaborate modelling as a tool of developmental evaluation for innovation and competence in project cooperation. The approach was based on activity theory. Modelling enabled a…

  20. A trade-based method for modelling supply markets in consequential LCA exemplified with Portland cement and bananas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sacchi, Romain

    2017-01-01

    This study proposes a method based on the analysis of trade networks over time for modelling the marginal supply of products in consequential life cycle assessment (LCA). It aims at increasing the geographical granularity of markets, accuracy of transport distances and modes and material losses d...

  1. Demand side management project for Tenaga Nasional Berhad: Energy efficiency study: Jabatan Kerja Raya (JKR) complex. Final report. Export trade information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-03-01

    This study, conducted by the California Energy Commission, was funded by the U.S. Trade and Development Agency. The report focuses on energy efficiency and conservation measures at the Jabatan Kerja Raya (JKR) Complex in Malaysia for Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB). The study is divided into the following contents: Preface; (1.0) Executive Summary; (2.0) Facility Background and Site Information; (3.0) Site Energy Use; (4.0) Energy Using Systems; (5.0) On-Site Electricity and Energy Generation; (6.0) Technical Project Summary; Figures, Tables, and Appendices.

  2. Demand-side management project for Tenaga Nasional Berhad: Energy efficiency study: Institut Teknologi Mara (ITM) complex. Final report. Export trade information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-03-01

    This study, conducted by the California Energy Commission, was funded by the U.S. Trade and Development Agency. The report focuses on energy efficiency and conservation measures at the Institut Teknologi Mara (ITM) Complex for Tenaga Nasional Berhad in Malaysia. The study is divided into the following sections: Preface; (1.0) Executive Summary; (2.0) Facility Background and Site Information; (3.0) Site Energy Use; (4.0) Energy Using Systems; (5.0) On-Site Electricity and Energy Generation; (6.0) Technical Project Summary; Figures, Tables, Appendices.

  3. Estimating the elasticity of trade: the trade share approach

    OpenAIRE

    Mauro Lanati

    2013-01-01

    Recent theoretical work on international trade emphasizes the importance of trade elasticity as the fundamental statistic needed to conduct welfare analysis. Eaton and Kortum (2002) proposed a two-step method to estimate this parameter, where exporter fixed effects are regressed on proxies for technology and wages. Within the same Ricardian model of trade, the trade share provides an alternative source of identication for the elasticity of trade. Following Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006) bot...

  4. Finding a pareto-optimal solution for multi-region models subject to capital trade and spillover externalities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leimbach, Marian [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung e.V., Potsdam (Germany); Eisenack, Klaus [Oldenburg Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Economics and Statistics

    2008-11-15

    In this paper we present an algorithm that deals with trade interactions within a multi-region model. In contrast to traditional approaches this algorithm is able to handle spillover externalities. Technological spillovers are expected to foster the diffusion of new technologies, which helps to lower the cost of climate change mitigation. We focus on technological spillovers which are due to capital trade. The algorithm of finding a pareto-optimal solution in an intertemporal framework is embedded in a decomposed optimization process. The paper analyzes convergence and equilibrium properties of this algorithm. In the final part of the paper, we apply the algorithm to investigate possible impacts of technological spillovers. While benefits of technological spillovers are significant for the capital-importing region, benefits for the capital-exporting region depend on the type of regional disparities and the resulting specialization and terms-of-trade effects. (orig.)

  5. Additive versus multiplicative trade costs and the gains from trade

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Allan

    This paper addresses welfare effects from trade liberalization in a heterogeneous-fi…rms trade model including the empirically important per-unit (i.e. additive) trade costs in addition to the conventional iceberg (i.e. multiplicative) and fi…xed trade costs. The novel contribution of the paper...... is the result that the welfare gain for a given increase in trade openness is higher for reductions in per-unit (additive) trade costs than for reductions in iceberg (multiplicative) trade costs. The ranking derives from differences in intra-industry reallocations and in particular from dissimilar impacts...

  6. Modelling Energy Systems and International Trade in CO2 Emission Quotas - The Kyoto Protocol and Beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persson, Tobias A.

    2002-01-01

    A transformation of the energy system in the 21st century is required if the CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere should be stabilized at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The industrialized countries have emitted most of the anthropogenic CO 2 released to the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial era and still account for roughly two thirds of global fossil fuel related CO 2 emissions. Industrial country CO 2 emissions on a per capita basis are roughly five to ten times higher than those of developing countries. However, a global atmospheric CO 2 concentration target of 450 ppm, if adopted would require that global average per capita CO 2 emissions by the end of this century have to be comparable to those of developing countries today. The industrialized countries would have to reduce their emissions substantially and the emissions in developing countries could not follow a business-as-usual scenario. The transformation of the energy system and abatement of CO 2 emissions would need to occur in industrialized and developing countries. Energy-economy models have been developed to analyze of international trading in CO 2 emission permits. The thesis consists of three papers. The cost of meeting the Kyoto Protocol is estimated in the first paper. The Kyoto Protocol, which defines quantitative greenhouse gas emission commitments for industrialized countries over the period 2008-2012, is the first international agreement setting quantitative goals for abatement of CO 2 emissions from energy systems. The Protocol allows the creation of systems for trade in emission permits whereby countries exceeding their target levels can remain in compliance by purchasing surplus permits from other developed countries. However, a huge carbon surplus, which has been christened hot air, has been created in Russia and Ukraine since 1990 primarily because of the contraction of their economies. The current Unites States

  7. Projecting biodiversity and wood production in future forest landscapes: 15 key modeling considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felton, Adam; Ranius, Thomas; Roberge, Jean-Michel; Öhman, Karin; Lämås, Tomas; Hynynen, Jari; Juutinen, Artti; Mönkkönen, Mikko; Nilsson, Urban; Lundmark, Tomas; Nordin, Annika

    2017-07-15

    A variety of modeling approaches can be used to project the future development of forest systems, and help to assess the implications of different management alternatives for biodiversity and ecosystem services. This diversity of approaches does however present both an opportunity and an obstacle for those trying to decide which modeling technique to apply, and interpreting the management implications of model output. Furthermore, the breadth of issues relevant to addressing key questions related to forest ecology, conservation biology, silviculture, economics, requires insights stemming from a number of distinct scientific disciplines. As forest planners, conservation ecologists, ecological economists and silviculturalists, experienced with modeling trade-offs and synergies between biodiversity and wood biomass production, we identified fifteen key considerations relevant to assessing the pros and cons of alternative modeling approaches. Specifically we identified key considerations linked to study question formulation, modeling forest dynamics, forest processes, study landscapes, spatial and temporal aspects, and the key response metrics - biodiversity and wood biomass production, as well as dealing with trade-offs and uncertainties. We also provide illustrative examples from the modeling literature stemming from the key considerations assessed. We use our findings to reiterate the need for explicitly addressing and conveying the limitations and uncertainties of any modeling approach taken, and the need for interdisciplinary research efforts when addressing the conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of environmental resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Trade in parts and components across Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Frensch, R.; Hanousek, Jan; Kočenda, E.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 66, č. 3 (2016), s. 236-262 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA15-15927S Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : international trade * production networks * gravity model Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.604, year: 2016 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/mag/article/show/id/1356

  9. A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalao, J.P.S.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. -- Highlights: → We model uncertainties on energy market prices and wind power production. → A hybrid intelligent approach generates price-wind power scenarios. → Risk aversion is also incorporated in the proposed stochastic programming approach. → A realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal, is provided. → Our approach allows selecting the best solution according to the desired risk exposure level.

  10. Modeling and Computation of Transboundary Industrial Pollution with Emission Permits Trading by Stochastic Differential Game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Shuhua; Wang, Xinyu; Wang, Zheng

    2015-01-01

    Transboundary industrial pollution requires international actions to control its formation and effects. In this paper, we present a stochastic differential game to model the transboundary industrial pollution problems with emission permits trading. More generally, the process of emission permits price is assumed to be stochastic and to follow a geometric Brownian motion (GBM). We make use of stochastic optimal control theory to derive the system of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations satisfied by the value functions for the cooperative and the noncooperative games, respectively, and then propose a so-called fitted finite volume method to solve it. The efficiency and the usefulness of this method are illustrated by the numerical experiments. The two regions' cooperative and noncooperative optimal emission paths, which maximize the regions' discounted streams of the net revenues, together with the value functions, are obtained. Additionally, we can also obtain the threshold conditions for the two regions to decide whether they cooperate or not in different cases. The effects of parameters in the established model on the results have been also examined. All the results demonstrate that the stochastic emission permits prices can motivate the players to make more flexible strategic decisions in the games.

  11. Modeling and Computation of Transboundary Industrial Pollution with Emission Permits Trading by Stochastic Differential Game.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuhua Chang

    Full Text Available Transboundary industrial pollution requires international actions to control its formation and effects. In this paper, we present a stochastic differential game to model the transboundary industrial pollution problems with emission permits trading. More generally, the process of emission permits price is assumed to be stochastic and to follow a geometric Brownian motion (GBM. We make use of stochastic optimal control theory to derive the system of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB equations satisfied by the value functions for the cooperative and the noncooperative games, respectively, and then propose a so-called fitted finite volume method to solve it. The efficiency and the usefulness of this method are illustrated by the numerical experiments. The two regions' cooperative and noncooperative optimal emission paths, which maximize the regions' discounted streams of the net revenues, together with the value functions, are obtained. Additionally, we can also obtain the threshold conditions for the two regions to decide whether they cooperate or not in different cases. The effects of parameters in the established model on the results have been also examined. All the results demonstrate that the stochastic emission permits prices can motivate the players to make more flexible strategic decisions in the games.

  12. Trade and Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abbott, Philip; Bentzen, Jeanet; Tarp, Finn

    2009-01-01

    History, not predictions of CGE models or cross-country growth studies, shows a strong relationship between trade and development. Vietnam's experience with bilateral trade agreements, comparing actual outcomes with predictions from existing models, demonstrates this and the limitations of research...

  13. Models for financial crisis detection in Indonesia based on bank deposits, real exchange rate and terms of trade indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiyanto; Zukhronah, Etik; Nur Aini, Anis

    2017-12-01

    Several times Indonesia has experienced to face a financial crisis, but the crisis occurred in 1997 had a tremendous impact on the economy and national stability. The impact of the crisis fall the exchange rate of rupiah against the dollar so it is needed the financial crisis detection system. Some data of bank deposits, real exchange rate and terms of trade indicators are used in this paper. Data taken from January 1990 until December 2016 are used to form the models with three state. Combination of volatility and Markov switching models are used to model the data. The result suggests that the appropriate model for bank deposit and terms of trade is SWARCH (3,1), and for real exchange rates is SWARCH (3,2).

  14. SR 97. Alternative models project. Stochastic continuum modelling of Aberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Widen, H.; Walker, D.

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modelling approaches to bedrock performance assessment for a single hypothetical repository, arbitrarily named Aberg. The Aberg repository will adopt input parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The models are restricted to an explicit domain, boundary conditions and canister location to facilitate the comparison. The boundary conditions are based on the regional groundwater model provided in digital format. This study is the application of HYDRASTAR, a stochastic continuum groundwater flow and transport-modelling program. The study uses 34 realisations of 945 canister locations in the hypothetical repository to evaluate the uncertainty of the advective travel time, canister flux (Darcy velocity at a canister) and F-ratio. Several comparisons of variability are constructed between individual canister locations and individual realisations. For the ensemble of all realisations with all canister locations, the study found a median travel time of 27 years, a median canister flux of 7.1 x 10 -4 m/yr and a median F-ratio of 3.3 x 10 5 yr/m. The overall pattern of regional flow is preserved in the site-scale model, as is reflected in flow paths and exit locations. The site-scale model slightly over-predicts the boundary fluxes from the single realisation of the regional model. The explicitly prescribed domain was seen to be slightly restrictive, with 6% of the stream tubes failing to exit the upper surface of the model. Sensitivity analysis and calibration are suggested as possible extensions of the modelling study

  15. Impacts of Tariff and Non-tariff Trade Barriers on Global Forest Products Trade: An Application of the Global Forest Products Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sun, L.; Bogdanski, B.; Stennes, B.; Kooten, van G.C.

    2010-01-01

    Although there has been considerable analysis on the effects of trade measures on forest product markets, these have tended to focus on tariffs. There is growing concern about the impact of non-tariff trade measures on the global forest product sector. The objective of this study is to fill a gap

  16. Introduction to Financial Projection Models. Business Management Instructional Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomeroy, Robert W., III

    This guidebook and teacher's guide accompany a personal computer software program and introduce the key elements of financial projection modeling to project the financial statements of an industrial enterprise. The student will then build a model on an electronic spreadsheet. The guidebook teaches the purpose of a financial model and the steps…

  17. IMPACT OF TRADE OPENNESS ON OUTPUT GROWTH: CO INTEGRATION AND ERROR CORRECTION MODEL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Arif

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed the long run relationship between trade openness and output growth for Pakistan using annual time series data for 1972-2010. This study follows the Engle and Granger co integration analysis and error correction approach to analyze the long run relationship between the two variables. The Error Correction Term (ECT for output growth and trade openness is significant at 5% level of significance and indicates a positive long run relation between the variables. This study has also analyzed the causality between trade openness and output growth by using granger causality test. The results of granger causality show that there is a bi-directional significant relationship between trade openness and economic growth.

  18. Brazilian international and inter-state trade flows: an exploratory analysis using the gravity model

    OpenAIRE

    Paz, Lourenço Senne

    2003-01-01

    Recent efforts toward a world with freer trade, like WTO/GATT or regional Preferential Trade Agreements(PTAs), were put in doubt after McCallum's(1995) finding of a large border effect between US and Canadian provinces. Since then, there has been a great amount of research on this topic employing the gravity equation. This dissertation has two goals. The first goal is to review comprehensively the recent literature about the gravity equation, including its usages, econometric s...

  19. Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades.

    OpenAIRE

    Hasbrouck, Joel

    1991-01-01

    This paper suggests that the interactions of security trades and quote revisions be modeled as a vector autoregressive system. Within this framework, a trade's information effect may be meaningfully measured as the ultimate price impact of the trade innovation. Estimates for a sample of NYSE issues suggest a trade's full price impact arrives only with a protracted lag; the impact is a positive and concave function of the trade size; large trades cause the spread to widen; trades occurring in ...

  20. Understanding performance properties of chemical engines under a trade-off optimization: Low-dissipation versus endoreversible model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, F. R.; Zhang, Rong; Li, Huichao; Li, C. N.; Liu, Wei; Bai, Long

    2018-05-01

    The trade-off criterion is used to systemically investigate the performance features of two chemical engine models (the low-dissipation model and the endoreversible model). The optimal efficiencies, the dissipation ratios, and the corresponding ratios of the dissipation rates for two models are analytically determined. Furthermore, the performance properties of two kinds of chemical engines are precisely compared and analyzed, and some interesting physics is revealed. Our investigations show that the certain universal equivalence between two models is within the framework of the linear irreversible thermodynamics, and their differences are rooted in the different physical contexts. Our results can contribute to a precise understanding of the general features of chemical engines.

  1. Modelling the introduction and spread of non-native species: international trade and climate change drive ragweed invasion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Daniel S; Makra, László; Albertini, Roberto; Bonini, Maira; Páldy, Anna; Rodinkova, Victoria; Šikoparija, Branko; Weryszko-Chmielewska, Elżbieta; Bullock, James M

    2016-09-01

    Biological invasions are a major driver of global change, for which models can attribute causes, assess impacts and guide management. However, invasion models typically focus on spread from known introduction points or non-native distributions and ignore the transport processes by which species arrive. Here, we developed a simulation model to understand and describe plant invasion at a continental scale, integrating repeated transport through trade pathways, unintentional release events and the population dynamics and local anthropogenic dispersal that drive subsequent spread. We used the model to simulate the invasion of Europe by common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a globally invasive plant that causes serious harm as an aeroallergen and crop weed. Simulations starting in 1950 accurately reproduced ragweed's current distribution, including the presence of records in climatically unsuitable areas as a result of repeated introduction. Furthermore, the model outputs were strongly correlated with spatial and temporal patterns of ragweed pollen concentrations, which are fully independent of the calibration data. The model suggests that recent trends for warmer summers and increased volumes of international trade have accelerated the ragweed invasion. For the latter, long distance dispersal because of trade within the invaded continent is highlighted as a key invasion process, in addition to import from the native range. Biosecurity simulations, whereby transport through trade pathways is halted, showed that effective control is only achieved by early action targeting all relevant pathways. We conclude that invasion models would benefit from integrating introduction processes (transport and release) with spread dynamics, to better represent propagule pressure from native sources as well as mechanisms for long-distance dispersal within invaded continents. Ultimately, such integration may facilitate better prediction of spatial and temporal variation in invasion

  2. Dealing with project complexity by matrix-based propagation modelling for project risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Fang , Chao; Marle , Franck

    2012-01-01

    International audience; Engineering projects are facing a growing complexity and are thus exposed to numerous and interdependent risks. In this paper, we present a quantitative method for modelling propagation behaviour in the project risk network. The construction of the network requires the involvement of the project manager and related experts using the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) method. A matrix-based risk propagation model is introduced to calculate risk propagation and thus to re-eva...

  3. A structural and stochastic optimal model for projections of LNG imports and exports in Asia-Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Kompas

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Asia-Pacific region, the largest and fastest growing liquefied natural gas (LNG market in the world, has been undergoing radical changes over the past few years. These changes include considerable additional supplies from North America and Australia, and a recent LNG price slump resulting from an oil-linked pricing mechanism and demand uncertainties. This paper develops an Asia-Pacific Gas Model (APGM, based on a structural, stochastic and optimising framework, providing a valuable tool for the projection of LNG trade in the Asia-Pacific region. With existing social-economic conditions, the model projects that Asia-Pacific LNG imports are expected to increase by 49.1 percent in 2020 and 95.7 percent in 2030, compared to 2013. Total LNG trade value is estimated to increase to US$127.2 billion in 2020 and US$199.0 billion in 2030. Future LNG trade expansion is mainly driven by emerging and large importers (i.e., China and India, and serviced, most importantly, by new supplies from Australia and the USA. The model's projected results are sensitive to changes in expected oil prices, pricing mechanisms, economic growth and energy policies, as well as unexpected geopolitical-economic events.

  4. Risk Assessment of Engineering Project Financing Based on PPP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Qiuli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, the project financing channel is single, and the urban facilities are in short supply, and the risk assessment and prevention mechanism of financing should be further improved to reduce the risk of project financing. In view of this, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of project financing risk which combined the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process is established. The scientificalness and effectiveness of the model are verified by the example of the world port project in Luohe city, and it provides basis and reference for engineering project financing based on PPP mode.

  5. The Jena Diversity-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (JeDi-DGVM: a diverse approach to representing terrestrial biogeography and biogeochemistry based on plant functional trade-offs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Pavlick

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial biosphere models typically abstract the immense diversity of vegetation forms and functioning into a relatively small set of predefined semi-empirical plant functional types (PFTs. There is growing evidence, however, from the field ecology community as well as from modelling studies that current PFT schemes may not adequately represent the observed variations in plant functional traits and their effect on ecosystem functioning. In this paper, we introduce the Jena Diversity-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (JeDi-DGVM as a new approach to terrestrial biosphere modelling with a richer representation of functional diversity than traditional modelling approaches based on a small number of fixed PFTs. JeDi-DGVM simulates the performance of a large number of randomly generated plant growth strategies, each defined by a set of 15 trait parameters which characterize various aspects of plant functioning including carbon allocation, ecophysiology and phenology. Each trait parameter is involved in one or more functional trade-offs. These trade-offs ultimately determine whether a strategy is able to survive under the climatic conditions in a given model grid cell and its performance relative to the other strategies. The biogeochemical fluxes and land surface properties of the individual strategies are aggregated to the grid-cell scale using a mass-based weighting scheme. We evaluate the simulated global biogeochemical patterns against a variety of field and satellite-based observations following a protocol established by the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project. The land surface fluxes and vegetation structural properties are reasonably well simulated by JeDi-DGVM, and compare favourably with other state-of-the-art global vegetation models. We also evaluate the simulated patterns of functional diversity and the sensitivity of the JeDi-DGVM modelling approach to the number of sampled strategies. Altogether, the results demonstrate the

  6. Insider trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maslechko, W.S.

    1998-01-01

    The policy arguments for and against prohibiting insider trading within the petroleum industry are discussed. Legal definitions of all relevant terms (e.g. 'special relationship' 'tippees', 'material facts', material changes' 'generally disclosed' information', 'necessary course of business') are provided. Enforcement of insider trading/tipping prohibitions are also defined. The recommended practice is: do not trade; do not tell or advise; encourage timely disclosure; do not speculate; implement a corporate disclosure and trading policy

  7. Modeling trade-offs between plant fiber and toxins: a framework for quantifying risks perceived by foraging herbivores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camp, Meghan J; Shipley, Lisa A; Johnson, Timothy R; Forbey, Jennifer Sorensen; Rachlow, Janet L; Crowell, Miranda M

    2015-12-01

    When selecting habitats, herbivores must weigh multiple risks, such as predation, starvation, toxicity, and thermal stress, forcing them to make fitness trade-offs. Here, we applied the method of paired comparisons (PC) to investigate how herbivores make trade-offs between habitat features that influence selection of food patches. The method of PC measures utility and the inverse of utility, relative risk, and makes trade-offs and indifferences explicit by forcing animals to make choices between two patches with different types of risks. Using a series of paired-choice experiments to titrate the equivalence curve and find the marginal rate of substitution for one risk over the other, we evaluated how toxin-tolerant (pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis) and fiber-tolerant (mountain cottontail rabbit Sylviagus nuttallii) herbivores differed in their hypothesized perceived risk of fiber and toxins in food. Pygmy rabbits were willing to consume nearly five times more of the toxin 1,8-cineole in their diets to avoid consuming higher levels of fiber than were mountain cottontails. Fiber posed a greater relative risk for pygmy rabbits than cottontails and cineole a greater risk for cottontails than pygmy rabbits. Our flexible modeling approach can be used to (1) quantify how animals evaluate and trade off multiple habitat attributes when the benefits and risks are difficult to quantify, and (2) integrate diverse risks that influence fitness and habitat selection into a single index of habitat value. This index potentially could be applied to landscapes to predict habitat selection across several scales.

  8. The Dynamics of Avian Influenza: Individual-Based Model with Intervention Strategies in Traditional Trade Networks in Phitsanulok Province, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaiwat Wilasang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 is endemic to Southeast Asia. In Thailand, avian influenza viruses continue to cause large poultry stock losses. The spread of the disease has a serious impact on poultry production especially among rural households with backyard chickens. The movements and activities of chicken traders result in the spread of the disease through traditional trade networks. In this study, we investigate the dynamics of avian influenza in the traditional trade network in Phitsanulok Province, Thailand. We also propose an individual-based model with intervention strategies to control the spread of the disease. We found that the dynamics of the disease mainly depend on the transmission probability and the virus inactivation period. This study also illustrates the appropriate virus disinfection period and the target for intervention strategies on traditional trade network. The results suggest that good hygiene and cleanliness among household traders and trader of trader areas and ensuring that any equipment used is clean can lead to a decrease in transmission and final epidemic size. These results may be useful to epidemiologists, researchers, and relevant authorities in understanding the spread of avian influenza through traditional trade networks.

  9. EVEGAS Project (European validation exercise of GAS migration model)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manai, T. [Geostock S.A., Rueil-Malmaison (France)

    1995-03-01

    The EVEGAS project aims at the verification and validation of numerical codes suitable for simulating gas flow phenomenon in low permeability porous media. Physical phenomena involved in gas generation and gas flow are numerous, often complex, and may not be very well described. The existing numerical codes cannot represent all the occurring possible phenomena, but allow a good trade-off betwen simplicity and representativity of such phenomena. Two phase flow (Gas and Water) appear to be the most consequential phenomena in gas migration and pressure sizing. The project is organised in three major steps: (1) a simple problem with analytical solutions. (2) A few problems based on laboratory or in-situ experiments. (3) A 3-D repository scenarios involving the following aspects: a repository design; a source of gas; rock characteristics; and fluid characteristics.

  10. A Unified Trading Model Based on Robust Optimization for Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets with Wind Power Integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiang, Yuewen; Chen, Meisen; You, Shi

    2017-01-01

    In a conventional electricity market, trading is conducted based on power forecasts in the day-ahead market, while the power imbalance is regulated in the real-time market, which is a separate trading scheme. With large-scale wind power connected into the power grid, power forecast errors increase...... in the day-ahead market which lowers the economic efficiency of the separate trading scheme. This paper proposes a robust unified trading model that includes the forecasts of real-time prices and imbalance power into the day-ahead trading scheme. The model is developed based on robust optimization in view...... of the undefined probability distribution of clearing prices of the real-time market. For the model to be used efficiently, an improved quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (IQPSO) is presented in the paper based on an in-depth analysis of the limitations of the static character of quantum-behaved particle...

  11. Multi-Agent Modeling in Managing Six Sigma Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Y. Chau

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multi-agent model is proposed for considering the human resources factor in decision making in relation to the six sigma project. The proposed multi-agent system is expected to increase the acccuracy of project prioritization and to stabilize the human resources service level. A simulation of the proposed multiagent model is conducted. The results show that a multi-agent model which takes into consideration human resources when making decisions about project selection and project team formation is important in enabling efficient and effective project management. The multi-agent modeling approach provides an alternative approach for improving communication and the autonomy of six sigma projects in business organizations.

  12. Financial and organizational models of NPP construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, Timur

    2010-01-01

    The recent evolution of financial and organizational models of NPP projects can be truly reputed to open a new page of the world market of NPP construction. The definition of the concrete model is based mostly on specific cooperation backgrounds and current terms and conditions under which the particular NPP project is being evolved. In this article the most commonly known strategies and schemes of financing structuring for export NPP construction projects are scrutinized. Special attention is paid to the analysis of BOO/BOT models which are based on the public-private partnership. Most BOO/BOT projects in the power sector has Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) as an integral part of them. The PPA key principles are studied here as well. The flexibility and adaptability of the public-private partnership models for financing and organization of the NPP projects contributes substantially to the competitiveness of the NPP projects especially under current economic conditions. (orig.)

  13. Trade costs in empirical New Economic Geography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosker, E.M.; Garretsen, J.H.

    Trade costs are a crucial element of New Economic Geography (NEG) models. Without trade costs there is no role for geography. In empirical NEG studies the unavailability of direct trade cost data calls for the need to approximate these trade costs by introducing a trade cost function. In doing so,

  14. Application of Generalized Hukuhara derivative approach in an economic production quantity model with partial trade credit policy under fuzzy environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pinki Majumder

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this present study, a production inventory model with partial trade credit is formulated and solved in fuzzy environment via Generalized Hukuhara derivative approach. To capture the market, a supplier offers a trade credit period to its retailers. Due to this facility, retailer also offers a partial trade credit period to his/her customer to boost the demand of the item. In practical life situation, demands are generally dependent upon time. Constant demand of an item varies time to time. In this vague situation, demands are taken as time dependent, where its constant part is taken as Left Right - type fuzzy number. In this paper, Generalized Hukuhara derivative approach is used to solve the fuzzy inventory model. Four different cases are considered by using Generalized Hukuhara-(i differentiability and Generalized Hukuhara-(ii differentiability. The objective of this paper is to find out the optimal time so as the total inventory cost is minimum. Finally the model is solved by generalized reduced gradient method. The proposed model and technique are illustrated by numerical examples. Some sensitivity analyses both in tabular and graphical forms are presented and the effects of minimum cost with respect to various inventory parameters are discussed.

  15. Finite detector based projection model for super resolution CT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Hengyong; Wang, Ge [Wake Forest Univ. Health Sciences, Winston-Salem, NC (United States). Dept. of Radiology; Virgina Tech, Blacksburg, VA (United States). Biomedical Imaging Div.

    2011-07-01

    For finite detector and focal spot sizes, here we propose a projection model for super resolution CT. First, for a given X-ray source point, a projection datum is modeled as an area integral over a narrow fan-beam connecting the detector elemental borders and the X-ray source point. Then, the final projection value is expressed as the integral obtained in the first step over the whole focal spot support. An ordered-subset simultaneous algebraic reconstruction technique (OS-SART) is developed using the proposed projection model. In the numerical simulation, our method produces super spatial resolution and suppresses high-frequency artifacts. (orig.)

  16. MODEL OF THE PROJECT – ORIENTED SOCIETY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marian CLIPICI

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In many national societies, projects and programmes are performed not only in companies but also in other organizations, such as municipal administrations, associations, schools and ever in families. The globalization of the economy, new technologies with ever-shorter product life cycles and the application of a new management paradigm, characterized by virtual organizations, „empowerment” and knowledge management, promote the use of project and programme management. The article describes the implementation of an integrated waste management in the county of Arges, in accordance with the requirements and provisions of European Community Directives, in order to preserve, protect and improve environmental quality in Arges (project "Integrated management of solid waste in Arges".

  17. Radiation exposure modeling and project schedule visualization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaquish, W.R.; Enderlin, V.R.

    1995-10-01

    This paper discusses two applications using IGRIP (Interactive Graphical Robot Instruction Program) to assist environmental remediation efforts at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site. In the first application, IGRIP is used to calculate the estimated radiation exposure to workers conducting tasks in radiation environments. In the second, IGRIP is used as a configuration management tool to detect interferences between equipment and personnel work areas for multiple projects occurring simultaneously in one area. Both of these applications have the capability to reduce environmental remediation costs by reducing personnel radiation exposure and by providing a method to effectively manage multiple projects in a single facility

  18. A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Yasar Guneri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

  19. An EOQ Model with Stock-Dependent Demand under Two Levels of Trade Credit and Time Value of Money

    OpenAIRE

    H.A.O. Jia-Qin; M.O. Jiangtao

    2013-01-01

    Since the value of money changes with time, it is necessary to take account of the influence of time factor in making the replenishment policy. In this study, to investigate the influence of the time value of money to the inventory strategy, an inventory system for deteriorating items with stock-dependent demand is investigated under two levels of trade credit. The method to efficiently determine the optimal cycle time is presented. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the model and...

  20. A Duopoly Manufacturers’ Game Model Considering Green Technology Investment under a Cap-and-Trade System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Zheng

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This research studied the duopoly manufacturers’ decision-making considering green technology investment and under a cap-and-trade system. It was assumed there were two manufacturers producing products which were substitutable for one another. On the basis of this assumption, the optimal production capacity, price, and green technology investment of the duopoly manufacturers under a cap-and-trade system were obtained. The increase or decrease of the optimal production quantity of the duopoly manufacturers under a cap-and-trade system was decided by their green technology level. The increase of the optimal price as well as the increase or decrease of the maximum expected profits were decided by the initial carbon emission quota granted by the government. Our research indicates that the carbon emission of unit product is inversely proportional to the market share of an enterprise and becomes an important index to measure the core competitiveness of an enterprise.

  1. A Model of and for Virtual Projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garud, R.; Kumaraswamy, A.; Tuertscher, P.R.; Cattani, G.; Ferriani, S.; Frederiksen, L.; Täube, F.

    2011-01-01

    We examine how digital technologies enable distributed actors to collaborate asynchronously on virtual projects. We use Wikipedia and associated wiki digital technology as the research site for our exploration. Our probe of the emergence of Wikipedia articles highlights a distinctive property of

  2. Analysis Of Agricultural Productivity And Growth On Safta (South Asian Free Trade Agreement And Its Imact On Economy Of Pakistan By Using CGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazir Ahmed GOPANG

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available This research explore the opportunities and analyzing the cost andbenefit on Pak-India trade on South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTAand its possible impact on the welfare of both countries. Pak-India trade on SAFTA create opportunities for the both countries in export Laid growth. In First Scenario when normal trading relation will be restores and given MFN(Most Favored Nations status given to each other to attack the trade between two countries. The Global trade analysis GTAP model is used to analyze the possible impact of SAFTA on Pakistan in a multi country, multi sector applied General equilibrium frame work. After employing the simplified static analysis framework, the analysis based on simulations revealsthat current demand for Pakistani Basmati Rice and other consumer items like leather and cotton-made garments will expand after the FTA and consumer surplus will increase. The export of Rice, leather and cotton-made garments may be conducted by two scenarios, i.e. when normal trading relations between Pakistan and India will be restored and when there will be a free trade between Pakistan and India in the presence of South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA. Results based on this research reveal that on SAFTA, grounds, there will be net export benefi ts in Pakistan’s economy.

  3. A Unified Trading Model Based on Robust Optimization for Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets with Wind Power Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuewen Jiang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In a conventional electricity market, trading is conducted based on power forecasts in the day-ahead market, while the power imbalance is regulated in the real-time market, which is a separate trading scheme. With large-scale wind power connected into the power grid, power forecast errors increase in the day-ahead market which lowers the economic efficiency of the separate trading scheme. This paper proposes a robust unified trading model that includes the forecasts of real-time prices and imbalance power into the day-ahead trading scheme. The model is developed based on robust optimization in view of the undefined probability distribution of clearing prices of the real-time market. For the model to be used efficiently, an improved quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (IQPSO is presented in the paper based on an in-depth analysis of the limitations of the static character of quantum-behaved particle swarm algorithm (QPSO. Finally, the impacts of associated parameters on the separate trading and unified trading model are analyzed to verify the superiority of the proposed model and algorithm.

  4. Melting ice, growing trade?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sami Bensassi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Large reductions in Arctic sea ice, most notably in summer, coupled with growing interest in Arctic shipping and resource exploitation have renewed interest in the economic potential of the Northern Sea Route (NSR. Two key constraints on the future viability of the NSR pertain to bathymetry and the future evolution of the sea ice cover. Climate model projections of future sea ice conditions throughout the rest of the century suggest that even under the most “aggressive” emission scenario, increases in international trade between Europe and Asia will be very low. The large inter-annual variability of weather and sea ice conditions in the route, the Russian toll imposed for transiting the NSR, together with high insurance costs and scarce loading/unloading opportunities, limit the use of the NSR. We show that even if these obstacles are removed, the duration of the opening of the NSR over the course of the century is not long enough to offer a consequent boost to international trade at the macroeconomic level.

  5. The Lunar Phases Project: A Mental Model-Based Observational Project for Undergraduate Nonscience Majors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Angela Osterman; Mon, Manuel J.; Hibbard, Susan T.

    2011-01-01

    We present our Lunar Phases Project, an ongoing effort utilizing students' actual observations within a mental model building framework to improve student understanding of the causes and process of the lunar phases. We implement this project with a sample of undergraduate, nonscience major students enrolled in a midsized public university located…

  6. Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, S.; Ott, S.; Pena, A.; Berg, J.; Nielsen, M.; Rathmann, O.; Joergensen, H.

    2011-11-15

    The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly, both with respect to the densely packed turbines and the large fetches needed to describe the collective shadow effects of one farm to the next. Further the project has developed the necessary software for the use of the models. Guidelines with recommendations for the use of the models are included in the model deliverables. The project has been carried out as a collaborative project between Risoe DTU, DONG, Vattenfall, DNV and VESTAS, and it has been financed by energinet.dk grant no. 10086. (Author)

  7. Biological trade and markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammerstein, Peter; Noë, Ronald

    2016-02-05

    Cooperation between organisms can often be understood, like trade between merchants, as a mutually beneficial exchange of services, resources or other 'commodities'. Mutual benefits alone, however, are not sufficient to explain the evolution of trade-based cooperation. First, organisms may reject a particular trade if another partner offers a better deal. Second, while human trade often entails binding contracts, non-human trade requires unwritten 'terms of contract' that 'self-stabilize' trade and prevent cheating even if all traders strive to maximize fitness. Whenever trading partners can be chosen, market-like situations arise in nature that biologists studying cooperation need to account for. The mere possibility of exerting partner choice stabilizes many forms of otherwise cheatable trade, induces competition, facilitates the evolution of specialization and often leads to intricate forms of cooperation. We discuss selected examples to illustrate these general points and review basic conceptual approaches that are important in the theory of biological trade and markets. Comparing these approaches with theory in economics, it turns out that conventional models-often called 'Walrasian' markets-are of limited relevance to biology. In contrast, early approaches to trade and markets, as found in the works of Ricardo and Cournot, contain elements of thought that have inspired useful models in biology. For example, the concept of comparative advantage has biological applications in trade, signalling and ecological competition. We also see convergence between post-Walrasian economics and biological markets. For example, both economists and biologists are studying 'principal-agent' problems with principals offering jobs to agents without being sure that the agents will do a proper job. Finally, we show that mating markets have many peculiarities not shared with conventional economic markets. Ideas from economics are useful for biologists studying cooperation but need

  8. Final Project Report Load Modeling Transmission Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesieutre, Bernard [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bravo, Richard [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Yinger, Robert [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chassin, Dave [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Huang, Henry [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Lu, Ning [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hiskens, Ian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Venkataramanan, Giri [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-03-31

    The research presented in this report primarily focuses on improving power system load models to better represent their impact on system behavior. The previous standard load model fails to capture the delayed voltage recovery events that are observed in the Southwest and elsewhere. These events are attributed to stalled air conditioner units after a fault. To gain a better understanding of their role in these events and to guide modeling efforts, typical air conditioner units were testing in laboratories. Using data obtained from these extensive tests, new load models were developed to match air conditioner behavior. An air conditioner model is incorporated in the new WECC composite load model. These models are used in dynamic studies of the West and can impact power transfer limits for California. Unit-level and systemlevel solutions are proposed as potential solutions to the delayed voltage recovery problem.

  9. Model Making and Anti-Competitive Practices in the Late Eighteenth-Century London Sculpture Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craske, Matthew

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This article concerns the generation of anti-competitive practices, and the associated discontents, that rose to the fore in the London sculpture trade in the late eighteenth century (1770-1799. It charts the business strategies and technical procedures of the most economically successful practitioners, whose workshops had some of the characteristics of manufactories, and whose critics accused them of conducting a "monopoly" trade. Small-scale practitioners lost out in the competition for great public contracts on account of their design processes and their inability to represent any manifestation of "establishment". A combination of three factors increased the gap between a handful of powerful "manufacturers" and the rest of the trade: the foundation of the Royal Academy, shifts in the ways designs were evaluated, and a growing number of very lucrative contracts for public sculpture. I conclude that such were the discontents within the London trade that by the 1790s, there was a marked tendency for practitioners who were not manufacturers to be attracted to democratic political movements, to the Wilkite call for liberty and the rise of civic radicalism in the merchant population of London.

  10. Analysts’ forecast error: A robust prediction model and its short term trading profitability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boudt, K.M.R.; de Goei, P.; Thewissen, J.; van Campenhout, G.

    2015-01-01

    This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the investment horizon salient to trading based on predicting the error in analysts' earnings forecasts. An econometric framework is proposed that accommodates the stylized fact of extreme values in the forecast error series. We find that between

  11. Using Nonlinear Programming in International Trade Theory: The Factor-Proportions Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, John

    2004-01-01

    Students at all levels benefit from a multi-faceted approach to learning abstract material. The most commonly used technique in teaching the pure theory of international trade is a combination of geometry and algebraic derivations. Numerical simulation can provide a valuable third support to these approaches. The author describes a simple…

  12. The lack of theoretical support for using person trade-offs in QALY-type models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

    2009-01-01

    -adjusted life years (DALYs). This paper discusses the theoretical support for the use of person trade-offs in QALY-type measurement of (changes in) population health. It argues that measures of this type based on such quality-adjustment factors almost always violate the Pareto principle, and so lack normative...

  13. Analysts forecast error : A robust prediction model and its short term trading

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boudt, Kris; de Goeij, Peter; Thewissen, James; Van Campenhout, Geert

    We examine the profitability of implementing a short term trading strategy based on predicting the error in analysts' earnings per share forecasts using publicly available information. Since large earnings surprises may lead to extreme values in the forecast error series that disrupt their smooth

  14. A Cross-Cultural Multi-agent Model of Opportunism in Trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofstede, G.J.; Jonker, C.M.; Verwaart, D.

    2010-01-01

    According to transaction cost economics, contracts are always incomplete and offer opportunities to defect. Some level of trust is a sine qua non for trade. If the seller is better informed about product quality than the buyer, the buyer has to rely on information the seller provides or has to check

  15. Development of a tool to model European biomass trade : Report for IEA Bioenergy Task 40

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoefnagels, E.T.A.; Junginger, H.M.; Resch, G.; Matzenberger, J.; Panzer, C.; Pelkmans, L.

    2011-01-01

    This report investigated the potential of future intra- and inter-European trade of solid biomass for bioenergy purposes taking country to country specific intermodal transport routes into account and matching supply and demand for energy crops, forestry products and residues and agricultural

  16. The value and adaptation of plant uptake models in international trade of produce treated with crop protection products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kennedy, C.; Anderson, J.; Snyder, N.

    2010-01-01

    Crop Protection Product (CPP) national registrations and/or international trade require magnitude and decline of residue data for treated produce. These data are used to assess human dietary risk and establish legal limits (Maximum Residue Limits, MRLs) for traded produce. The ability to predict...... residues based on limited data sets affords business value by enabling informed product development decisions about the likelihood for MRL compliance for varied product use scenarios. Predicted residues can additionally support the design and conduct of time-constrained interdependent studies required...... for product registrations. While advances in predicting residues for the case of foliar applications of CPPs have been achieved, predictions for the case of soil applications of CPPs provide additional challenge. The adaptation of a newly developed dynamic model to CPP product use scenarios will be explored...

  17. Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Bangladesh: A General Equilibrium Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Nahar, Bodrun; Siriwardana, Mahinda

    2009-01-01

    This paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate the impact on poverty of trade liberalisation in Bangladesh. The simulation results show that the complete removal of tariffs favours export oriented sectors in the economy. With trade liberalisation, rural and urban areas experience an overall reduction in poverty in the short run. However, a marginal increase in the poverty gap and poverty severity for urban areas is projected, implying that the poor become poorer i...

  18. Rapid Energy Modeling Workflow Demonstration Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    app FormIt for conceptual modeling with further refinement available in Revit or Vasari. Modeling can also be done in Revit (detailed and conceptual...referenced building model while in the field. • Autodesk® Revit is a BIM software application with integrated energy and carbon analyses driven by Green...FormIt, Revit and Vasari, and (3) comparative analysis. The energy results of these building analyses are represented as annual energy use for natural

  19. Occupant Protection Data Mining and Modeling Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Current National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) occupant protection standards and requirements are based on extrapolations of biodynamic models, which...

  20. Exploring trade-offs between fisheries and conservation of the vaquita porpoise (Phocoena sinus using an Atlantis ecosystem model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hem Nalini Morzaria-Luna

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Minimizing fishery bycatch threats might involve trade-offs between maintaining viable populations and economic benefits. Understanding these trade-offs can help managers reconcile conflicting goals. An example is a set of bycatch reduction measures for the Critically Endangered vaquita porpoise (Phocoena sinus, in the Northern Gulf of California, Mexico. The vaquita is an endemic species threatened with extinction by artisanal net bycatch within its limited range; in this area fisheries are the chief source of economic productivity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analyze trade-offs between conservation of the vaquita and fisheries, using an end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model for the Northern Gulf of California. Atlantis is a spatially-explicit model intended as a strategic tool to test alternative management strategies. We simulated increasingly restrictive fisheries regulations contained in the vaquita conservation plan: implementing progressively larger spatial management areas that exclude gillnets, shrimp driftnets and introduce a fishing gear that has no vaquita bycatch. We found that only the most extensive spatial management scenarios recovered the vaquita population above the threshold necessary to downlist the species from Critically Endangered. The scenario that excludes existing net gear from the 2008 area of vaquita distribution led to moderate decrease in net present value (US$ 42 million relative to the best-performing scenario and a two-fold increase in the abundance of adult vaquita over the course of 30 years. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Extended spatial management resulted in the highest recovery of the vaquita population. The economic cost of proposed management actions was unequally divided between fishing fleets; the loss of value from finfish gillnet fisheries was never recovered. Our analysis shows that managers will have to confront difficult trade-offs between management scenarios for vaquita conservation.

  1. Leading Undergraduate Research Projects in Mathematical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshaiyer, Padmanabhan

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we provide some useful perspectives and experiences in mentoring students in undergraduate research (UR) in mathematical modeling using differential equations. To engage students in this topic, we present a systematic approach to the creation of rich problems from real-world phenomena; present mathematical models that are derived…

  2. Radiative-convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, Allison A.; Reed, Kevin A.; Satoh, Masaki; Stevens, Bjorn; Bony, Sandrine; Ohno, Tomoki

    2018-03-01

    RCEMIP, an intercomparison of multiple types of models configured in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), is proposed. RCE is an idealization of the climate system in which there is a balance between radiative cooling of the atmosphere and heating by convection. The scientific objectives of RCEMIP are three-fold. First, clouds and climate sensitivity will be investigated in the RCE setting. This includes determining how cloud fraction changes with warming and the role of self-aggregation of convection in climate sensitivity. Second, RCEMIP will quantify the dependence of the degree of convective aggregation and tropical circulation regimes on temperature. Finally, by providing a common baseline, RCEMIP will allow the robustness of the RCE state across the spectrum of models to be assessed, which is essential for interpreting the results found regarding clouds, climate sensitivity, and aggregation, and more generally, determining which features of tropical climate a RCE framework is useful for. A novel aspect and major advantage of RCEMIP is the accessibility of the RCE framework to a variety of models, including cloud-resolving models, general circulation models, global cloud-resolving models, single-column models, and large-eddy simulation models.

  3. Energy trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beckmann, K.; Schroeter, S.

    2009-01-01

    Two brief articles and two interviews deal with the subject of energy trading. Power and gas exchanges in Europe multiply, but, experts say, we are nowhere near a mature, integrated European energy market as yet. Trading regulations need to be improved and harmonised and interconnections expanded. European Energy Review assesses the state of energy trading in Europe and interviews the ceo's of NordPool (the Nordic power exchange) and APX (Amsterdam Power Exchange)

  4. Cointegration and error correction modelling of agricultural commodity trade: The case of ASEAN agricultural exports to the EU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. NIEMI

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The objecti e of this study is to increase our understanding of the specification and estimation of agricultural commodity trade models as well as to provide instruments for trade policy analysis. More specifically,the aim is to build a set of dynamic,theory-based econometric models which are able to capture both short-run and long-run effects of income and price changes,and which can be used for prediction and policy simulation under alternati e assumed conditions.A relati ely unrestricted,data determined,econometric modelling approach based on the error correction mechanism is used,in order to emphasise the importance of dynamics of trade functions.Econometric models are constructed for se en agricultural commodities –cassa a,cocoa,coconut oil,palm oil,pepper, rubber,and tea –exported from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEANto the European Union (EU.With the aim of providing broad commodity co erage,the intent is to explore whether the chosen modelling approach is able to catch the essentials of the behavioural relationships underlying the specialised nature of each commodity market. The import demand analysis of the study examines two key features:(1the response of EU ’s agricultural commodity imports to income and price changes,and (2the length of time required for this response to occur.The estimations of the export demand relationships provide tests whether the exporters ’ market shares are influenced by the le el of relati e export price,and whether exports are affected by ariations in the rate of growth of imports.The export supply analysis examines the relati e influence of real price and some non-price factors in stimulating the supply of exports.The lag distribution (the shape and length of the lagis found to be ery critical in export supply relationships,since the effects of price changes usually take a long time to work themselves through and since the transmission of the price effects can be complex.The set of

  5. Technology Investments in the NASA Entry Systems Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnhardt, Michael; Wright, Michael; Hughes, Monica

    2017-01-01

    The Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) technology development project, initiated in 2012 under NASAs Game Changing Development (GCD) Program, is engaged in maturation of fundamental research developing aerosciences, materials, and integrated systems products for entry, descent, and landing(EDL)technologies [1]. To date, the ESM project has published over 200 papers in these areas, comprising the bulk of NASAs research program for EDL modeling. This presentation will provide an overview of the projects successes and challenges, and an assessment of future investments in EDL modeling and simulation relevant to NASAs mission

  6. Textile materials trading center formally launched online

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    Textile materials trading center was formally launched online in Wuxi City,Jiangsu Province. This is the first third-party electronic trading platform for spot trading in China textile materials professional market. The project will strive to build the most influential textile materials trading center of East China,the whole country and even the whole world China textile materials trading center will be

  7. Trading Agents

    CERN Document Server

    Wellman, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Automated trading in electronic markets is one of the most common and consequential applications of autonomous software agents. Design of effective trading strategies requires thorough understanding of how market mechanisms operate, and appreciation of strategic issues that commonly manifest in trading scenarios. Drawing on research in auction theory and artificial intelligence, this book presents core principles of strategic reasoning that apply to market situations. The author illustrates trading strategy choices through examples of concrete market environments, such as eBay, as well as abst

  8. Can model weighting improve probabilistic projections of climate change?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raeisaenen, Jouni; Ylhaeisi, Jussi S. [Department of Physics, P.O. Box 48, University of Helsinki (Finland)

    2012-10-15

    Recently, Raeisaenen and co-authors proposed a weighting scheme in which the relationship between observable climate and climate change within a multi-model ensemble determines to what extent agreement with observations affects model weights in climate change projection. Within the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) dataset, this scheme slightly improved the cross-validated accuracy of deterministic projections of temperature change. Here the same scheme is applied to probabilistic temperature change projection, under the strong limiting assumption that the CMIP3 ensemble spans the actual modeling uncertainty. Cross-validation suggests that probabilistic temperature change projections may also be improved by this weighting scheme. However, the improvement relative to uniform weighting is smaller in the tail-sensitive logarithmic score than in the continuous ranked probability score. The impact of the weighting on projection of real-world twenty-first century temperature change is modest in most parts of the world. However, in some areas mainly over the high-latitude oceans, the mean of the distribution is substantially changed and/or the distribution is considerably narrowed. The weights of individual models vary strongly with location, so that a model that receives nearly zero weight in some area may still get a large weight elsewhere. Although the details of this variation are method-specific, it suggests that the relative strengths of different models may be difficult to harness by weighting schemes that use spatially uniform model weights. (orig.)

  9. Trade and Sectoral Productivity

    OpenAIRE

    Fadinger, Harald; Fleiss, Pablo

    2008-01-01

    Even though differences in sectoral total factor productivity are at the heart of Ricardian trade theory and many models of growth and development, very little is known about their size and their form. In this paper we try to fill this gap by using a Hybrid-Ricardo-Heckscher-Ohlin trade model and bilateral sectoral trade data to overcome the data problem that has limited previous studies, which have used input and output data to back out productivities, to a small number of OECD economies. We...

  10. New affective models of knowledge transmission: The Medialab-Prado as a trading zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Gámez-Pérez

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the Medialab-Prado cultural space, located in Madrid, which is developing a project involving arts, scientific dissemination, and transmission of knowledge through digital networks and collective culture. It is conceived as a great citizens’ laboratory. The article demonstrates that this new model of sociocultural organization has changed the ways in which knowledge is transmitted through technology. It has also modified the Medialab’s actors’ access to information. In order to do so, I will use the sociological theories of Bruno Latour and the study of the transmission of knowledge in transdisciplinary environments carried out by Peter Galison on the history of science, as well as some epistemological notions and aspects of affective atmospheres.

  11. An eoq model for weibull deteriorating item with ramp type demand and salvage value under trade credit system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lalit Mohan Pradhan

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the present competitive business scenario researchers have developed various inventory models for deteriorating items considering various practical situations for better inventory control. Permissible delay in payments with various demands and deteriorations is considerably a new concept introduced in developing various inventory models. These models are very useful for both the consumers and the manufacturer. Methods: In the present work an inventory model has been developed for a three parameter Weibull deteriorating item with ramp type demand and salvage value under trade credit system. Here we have considered a single item for developing the model. Results and conclusion: Optimal order quantity, optimal cycle time and total variable cost during a cycle have been derived for the proposed inventory model. The results obtained in this paper have been illustrated with the help of numerical examples and sensitivity analysis.   

  12. National Automated Highway System Consortium: Modeling Stakeholder Preferences Project

    OpenAIRE

    Lathrop, John; Chen, Kan

    1997-01-01

    This document is the final report of the Modeling Stakeholder Preferences Project. The results of the project consist of three results: 1) evaluation framework; 2) focus group non-quantitative findings/ recommendations; and, 3) performance/impact measures, their endpoints, rankings and weights, for each stakeholder group.

  13. Improving Project Management Using Formal Models and Architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Theodore; Sturken, Ian

    2011-01-01

    This talk discusses the advantages formal modeling and architecture brings to project management. These emerging technologies have both great potential and challenges for improving information available for decision-making. The presentation covers standards, tools and cultural issues needing consideration, and includes lessons learned from projects the presenters have worked on.

  14. A whole stand basal area projection model for Appalachian hardwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    John R. Brooks; Lichun Jiang; Matthew Perkowski; Benktesh Sharma

    2008-01-01

    Two whole-stand basal area projection models were developed for Appalachian hardwood stands. The proposed equations are an algebraic difference projection form based on existing basal area and the change in age, trees per acre, and/or dominant height. Average equation error was less than 10 square feet per acre and residuals exhibited no irregular trends.

  15. Building Context with Tumor Growth Modeling Projects in Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, Julie C.; Gevertz, Jana L.; Howard, Keith E.

    2015-01-01

    The use of modeling projects serves to integrate, reinforce, and extend student knowledge. Here we present two projects related to tumor growth appropriate for a first course in differential equations. They illustrate the use of problem-based learning to reinforce and extend course content via a writing or research experience. Here we discuss…

  16. Network model of project "Lean Production"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khisamova, E. D.

    2018-05-01

    Economical production implies primarily new approaches to culture of management and organization of production and offers a set of tools and techniques that allows reducing losses significantly and making the process cheaper and faster. Economical production tools are simple solutions that allow one to see opportunities for improvement of all aspects of the business, to reduce losses significantly, to constantly improve the whole spectrum of business processes, to increase significantly the transparency and manageability of the organization, to take advantage of the potential of each employee of the company, to increase competitiveness, and to obtain significant economic benefits without making large financial expenditures. Each of economical production tools solves a specific part of the problems, and only application of their combination will allow one to solve the problem or minimize it to acceptable values. The research of the governance process project "Lean Production" permitted studying the methods and tools of lean production and developing measures for their improvement.

  17. Trade, Gender and Equity in Latin America : Knowledge for Political ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This project will analyze the complex trade liberalization-gender equity nexus, focusing ... Interface of research on gender and trade with the negotiations of trade agreements ... IDRC invites applications for the IDRC Doctoral Research Awards.

  18. Intra-Day Trading System Design Based on the Integrated Model of Wavelet De-Noise and Genetic Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongguang Liu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Technical analysis has been proved to be capable of exploiting short-term fluctuations in financial markets. Recent results indicate that the market timing approach beats many traditional buy-and-hold approaches in most of the short-term trading periods. Genetic programming (GP was used to generate short-term trade rules on the stock markets during the last few decades. However, few of the related studies on the analysis of financial time series with genetic programming considered the non-stationary and noisy characteristics of the time series. In this paper, to de-noise the original financial time series and to search profitable trading rules, an integrated method is proposed based on the Wavelet Threshold (WT method and GP. Since relevant information that affects the movement of the time series is assumed to be fully digested during the market closed periods, to avoid the jumping points of the daily or monthly data, in this paper, intra-day high-frequency time series are used to fully exploit the short-term forecasting advantage of technical analysis. To validate the proposed integrated approach, an empirical study is conducted based on the China Securities Index (CSI 300 futures in the emerging China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX market. The analysis outcomes show that the wavelet de-noise approach outperforms many comparative models.

  19. Ordering policies of a deteriorating item in an EOQ model with backorder under two-level partial trade credit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molamohamadi, Zohreh; Arshizadeh, Rahman; Ismail, Napsiah

    2015-05-01

    In the classical inventory model, it was assumed that the retailer must settle the accounts of the purchased items as soon as they are received. In practice, however, the supplier usually offers a full or partial delay period to the retailer to pay for the amount of the purchasing costs. In the partial trade credit contract, which is mostly applied to avoid non-payment risks, the retailer must pay for a portion of the purchased goods at the time of ordering and may delay settling the rest until the end of the predefined agreed upon period, so-called credit period. This paper assumes a two-level partial trade credit where both supplier and retailer offer a partial trade credit to their downstream members. The objective here is to determine the retailer's ordering policy of a deteriorating item by formulating his economic order quantity (EOQ) inventory system with backorder as a cost minimization problem. The sensitivity of the variables on different parameters has been also analyzed by applying numerical examples.

  20. The impact of domestic trade on China's regional energy uses: A multi-regional input–output modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Bo; Chen, Z.M.; Xia, X.H.; Xu, X.Y.; Chen, Y.B.

    2013-01-01

    To systematically reveal how domestic trade impacts on China's regional energy uses, an interprovincial input–output modeling is carried out to address demand-derived energy requirements for the regional economies in 2007 based on the recently available data. Both the energy uses embodied in final demand and interregional trade are investigated from the regional and sectoral insights. Significant net transfers of embodied energy flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade. Shanxi is the largest energy producer and interregional embodied energy deficit receiver, in contrast to Guangdong as the largest energy user and surplus receiver. By considering the impacts of interregional trade, the energy uses of most eastern regions increase remarkably. For instance, Shanghai, Hainan, Zhejiang, Beijing, Jiangsu and Guangdong have their embodied energy requirements 87.49, 19.97, 13.64, 12.60, 6.46 and 6.38 times of their direct energy inputs, respectively. In contrast, the embodied energy uses of some central and western regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and Guizhou decrease largely. The results help understand the hidden network linkages of interregional embodied energy flows and provide critical insight to amend China's current end-reduction-oriented energy policies by addressing the problem of regional responsibility transfer. - Highlights: • Demand-derived energy requirements for China's regional economies are addressed. • Significant interregional transfers of embodied energy flows are identified. • Energy surpluses are obtained by 19 regions and deficits by the other 11 regions. • The eastern regions should take more responsibility for reducing China's energy uses

  1. Projectables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Troels A.; Merritt, Timothy R.

    2017-01-01

    CNC cutting machines have become essential tools for designers and architects enabling rapid prototyping, model-building and production of high quality components. Designers often cut from new materials, discarding the irregularly shaped remains. We introduce ProjecTables, a visual augmented...... reality system for interactive packing of model parts onto sheet materials. ProjecTables enables designers to (re)use scrap materials for CNC cutting that would have been previously thrown away, at the same time supporting aesthetic choices related to wood grain, avoiding surface blemishes, and other...... relevant material properties. We conducted evaluations of ProjecTables with design students from Aarhus School of Architecture, demonstrating that participants could quickly and easily place and orient model parts reducing material waste. Contextual interviews and ideation sessions led to a deeper...

  2. Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project Digital Elevation Model, Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The high-resolution Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project (RAMP) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) combines topographic data from a variety of sources to provide consistent...

  3. Procedures and models for estimating preconstruction costs of highway projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    This study presents data driven and component based PE cost prediction models by utilizing critical factors retrieved from ten years of historical project data obtained from ODOT roadway division. The study used factor analysis of covariance and corr...

  4. Trade credit: Elusive insurance of firm growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bams, Dennis; Bos, Jaap; Pisa, Magdalena

    2016-01-01

    Firms depend heavily on trade credit. This paper introduces a trade credit network into a structural model of the economy. In an empirical analysis of the model, we find that trade credit is an elusive insurance: as long as a firm is financially unconstrained and times are good, more trade credit

  5. A Comparative Analysis of Trade Facilitation in Selected Regional and Bilateral Trade Agreement

    OpenAIRE

    Institute for International Trade

    2006-01-01

    This study compared the treatment of trade facilitation in four selected regional trade agreements, AFTA, APEC, SAFRA and PACER, and in one bilateral free trade agreement being the Australia-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (ASFTA), with a view to determining model trade facilitation principles and measures which may be instructive for developing country negotiations and policy makers.

  6. A hybrid input–output multi-objective model to assess economic–energy–environment trade-offs in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carvalho, Ariovaldo Lopes de; Antunes, Carlos Henggeler; Freire, Fausto; Henriques, Carla Oliveira

    2015-01-01

    A multi-objective linear programming (MOLP) model based on a hybrid Input–Output (IO) framework is presented. This model aims at assessing the trade-offs between economic, energy, environmental (E3) and social objectives in the Brazilian economic system. This combination of multi-objective models with Input–Output Analysis (IOA) plays a supplementary role in understanding the interactions between the economic and energy systems, and the corresponding impacts on the environment, offering a consistent framework for assessing the effects of distinct policies on these systems. Firstly, the System of National Accounts (SNA) is reorganized to include the National Energy Balance, creating a hybrid IO framework that is extended to assess Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and the employment level. The objective functions considered are the maximization of GDP (gross domestic product) and employment levels, as well as the minimization of energy consumption and GHG emissions. An interactive method enabling a progressive and selective search of non-dominated solutions with distinct characteristics and underlying trade-offs is utilized. Illustrative results indicate that the maximization of GDP and the employment levels lead to an increase of both energy consumption and GHG emissions, while the minimization of either GHG emissions or energy consumption cause negative impacts on GDP and employment. - Highlights: • A hybrid Input–Output multi-objective model is applied to the Brazilian economy. • Objective functions are GDP, employment level, energy consumption and GHG emissions. • Interactive search process identifies trade-offs between the competing objectives. • Positive correlations between GDP growth and employment. • Positive correlations between energy consumption and GHG emissions

  7. DEVELOPMENT MODEL OF PATISSERIE PROJECT-BASED LEARNING

    OpenAIRE

    Ana Ana; Lutfhiyah Nurlaela

    2013-01-01

    The study aims to find a model of patisserie project-based learning with production approach that can improve effectiveness of patisserie learning. Delphi Technique, Cohen's Kappa and percentages of agreements were used to assess model of patisserie project based learning. Data collection techniques employed in the study were questionnaire, check list worksheet, observation, and interview sheets. Subjects were 13 lectures of expertise food and nutrition and 91 students of Food and Nutrition ...

  8. Numerical modeling in photonic crystals integrated technology: the COPERNICUS Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaguti, Stefania; Armaroli, Andrea; Bellanca, Gaetano

    2011-01-01

    Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project.......Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project....

  9. The EPQ model under conditions of two levels of trade credit and limited storage capacity in supply chain management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Kun-Jen

    2013-09-01

    An inventory problem involves a lot of factors influencing inventory decisions. To understand it, the traditional economic production quantity (EPQ) model plays rather important role for inventory analysis. Although the traditional EPQ models are still widely used in industry, practitioners frequently question validities of assumptions of these models such that their use encounters challenges and difficulties. So, this article tries to present a new inventory model by considering two levels of trade credit, finite replenishment rate and limited storage capacity together to relax the basic assumptions of the traditional EPQ model to improve the environment of the use of it. Keeping in mind cost-minimisation strategy, four easy-to-use theorems are developed to characterise the optimal solution. Finally, the sensitivity analyses are executed to investigate the effects of the various parameters on ordering policies and the annual total relevant costs of the inventory system.

  10. Downplaying model power in IT project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richter, Anne; Buhl, Henrik

    2004-01-01

    in the research, presented in this article, conducted in a Danish manufacturing company, is how an IT system could be configured to support shopfloor teamwork and enhance the quality of work. The approach is based on participatory design and the concept of "model power". This concept facilitates an understanding...

  11. A Systematic Approach to Modelling Change Processes in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Motawa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Modelling change processes within construction projects isessential to implement changes efficiently. Incomplete informationon the project variables at the early stages of projects leads toinadequate knowledge of future states and imprecision arisingfrom ambiguity in project parameters. This lack of knowledge isconsidered among the main source of changes in construction.Change identification and evaluation, in addition to predictingits impacts on project parameters, can help in minimising thedisruptive effects of changes. This paper presents a systematicapproach to modelling change process within construction projectsthat helps improve change identification and evaluation. Theapproach represents the key decisions required to implementchanges. The requirements of an effective change processare presented first. The variables defined for efficient changeassessment and diagnosis are then presented. Assessmentof construction changes requires an analysis for the projectcharacteristics that lead to change and also analysis of therelationship between the change causes and effects. The paperconcludes that, at the early stages of a project, projects with a highlikelihood of change occurrence should have a control mechanismover the project characteristics that have high influence on theproject. It also concludes, for the relationship between changecauses and effects, the multiple causes of change should bemodelled in a way to enable evaluating the change effects moreaccurately. The proposed approach is the framework for tacklingsuch conclusions and can be used for evaluating change casesdepending on the available information at the early stages ofconstruction projects.

  12. Emissions Trading

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woerdman, Edwin; Backhaus, Juergen

    2014-01-01

    Emissions trading is a market-based instrument to achieve environmental targets in a cost-effective way by allowing legal entities to buy and sell emission rights. The current international dissemination and intended linking of emissions trading schemes underlines the growing relevance of this

  13. Organ Trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.A.E. Ambagtsheer (Frederike)

    2017-01-01

    markdownabstractOrgan trade constitutes the sale and purchase of organs for financial or material gain. Although prohibited since the 1980s, an increasing number of reports indicate its proliferation across the globe. Yet, many knowledge gaps exist on organ trade, in particular on the demand -and

  14. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Progress and Preliminary Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.

    2011-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and agricultural trade modeling groups around the world. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Recent progress and the current status of AgMIP will be presented, highlighting three areas of activity: preliminary results from crop pilot studies, outcomes from regional workshops, and emerging scientific challenges. AgMIP crop modeling efforts are being led by pilot studies, which have been established for wheat, maize, rice, and sugarcane. These crop-specific initiatives have proven instrumental in testing and contributing to AgMIP protocols, as well as creating preliminary results for aggregation and input to agricultural trade models. Regional workshops are being held to encourage collaborations and set research activities in motion for key agricultural areas. The first of these workshops was hosted by Embrapa and UNICAMP and held in Campinas, Brazil. Outcomes from this meeting have informed crop modeling research activities within South America, AgMIP protocols, and future regional workshops. Several scientific challenges have emerged and are currently being addressed by AgMIP researchers. Areas of particular interest include geospatial weather generation, ensemble methods for climate scenarios and crop models, spatial aggregation of field-scale yields to regional and global production, and characterization of future changes in climate variability.

  15. METHODS OF SELECTING THE EFFECTIVE MODELS OF BUILDINGS REPROFILING PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Иванович МЕНЕЙЛЮК

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article highlights the important task of project management in reprofiling of buildings. It is expedient to pay attention to selecting effective engineering solutions to reduce the duration and cost reduction at the project management in the construction industry. This article presents a methodology for the selection of efficient organizational and technical solutions for the reconstruction of buildings reprofiling. The method is based on a compilation of project variants in the program Microsoft Project and experimental statistical analysis using the program COMPEX. The introduction of this technique in the realigning of buildings allows choosing efficient models of projects, depending on the given constraints. Also, this technique can be used for various construction projects.

  16. On Helical Projection and Its Application in Screw Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riliang Liu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available As helical surfaces, in their many and varied forms, are finding more and more applications in engineering, new approaches to their efficient design and manufacture are desired. To that end, the helical projection method that uses curvilinear projection lines to map a space object to a plane is examined in this paper, focusing on its mathematical model and characteristics in terms of graphical representation of helical objects. A number of interesting projective properties are identified in regard to straight lines, curves, and planes, and then the method is further investigated with respect to screws. The result shows that the helical projection of a cylindrical screw turns out to be a Jordan curve, which is determined by the screw's axial profile and number of flights. Based on the projection theory, a practical approach to the modeling of screws and helical surfaces is proposed and illustrated with examples, and its possible application in screw manufacturing is discussed.

  17. Energy from biomass. Summaries of the Biomass Projects carried out as part of the Department of Trade and Industry`s New and Renewable Energy Programme. Vol. 4: anaerobic digestion for biogas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-01

    These volumes of summaries provide easy access to the many projects carried out in the Energy from Biomass programme area as part of the Department of Trade and Industry`s New and Renewable Energy Programme. The summaries in this volume cover contractor reports on the subject published up to December 1997. (author)

  18. Energy from biomass. Summaries of the Biomass Projects carried out as part of the Department of Trade and Industry's New and Renewable Energy Programme. Vol. 3: converting wood fuel to energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-01

    These volumes of summaries provide easy access to the many projects carried out in the Energy from Biomass programme area as part of the Department of Trade and Industry's New and Renewable Energy Programme. The summaries in this volume cover contractor reports on the subject published up to December 1997. (author)

  19. Energy from biomass. Summaries of the Biomass Projects carried out as part of the Department of Trade and Industry's New and Renewable Energy Programme. Vol. 5: straw, poultry litter and energy crops as energy sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-01-01

    These volumes of summaries provide easy access to the many projects carried out in the Energy from Biomass programme area as part of the Department of Trade and Industry's New and Renewable Energy Programme. The summaries in this volume cover contractor reports on the subject published up to December 1997. (author)

  20. Development and application of a model for the analysis of trades between space launch system operations and acquisition costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nix, Michael B.

    2005-12-01

    Early design decisions in the development of space launch systems determine the costs to acquire and operate launch systems. Some sources indicate that as much as 90% of life cycle costs are fixed by the end of the critical design review phase. System characteristics determined by these early decisions are major factors in the acquisition cost of flight hardware elements and facilities and influence operations costs through the amount of maintenance and support labor required to sustain system function. Operations costs are also dependent on post-development management decisions regarding how much labor will be deployed to meet requirements of market demand and ownership profit. The ability to perform early trade-offs between these costs is vital to the development of systems that have the necessary capacity to provide service and are profitable to operate. An Excel-based prototype model was developed for making early analyses of trade-offs between the costs to operate a space launch system and to acquire the necessary assets to meet a given set of operational requirements. The model, integrating input from existing models and adding missing capability, allows the user to make such trade-offs across a range of operations concepts (required flight rates, staffing levels, shifts per workday, workdays per week and per year, unreliability, wearout and depot maintenance) and the number, type and capability of assets (flight hardware elements, processing and supporting facilities and infrastructure). The costs and capabilities of hypothetical launch systems can be modeled as a function of interrelated turnaround times and labor resource levels, and asset loss and retirement. The number of flight components and facilities required can be calculated and the operations and acquisition costs compared for a specified scenario. Findings, based on the analysis of a hypothetical two stage to orbit, reusable, unmanned launch system, indicate that the model is suitable for the

  1. Process simulation and parametric modeling for strategic project management

    CERN Document Server

    Morales, Peter J

    2013-01-01

    Process Simulation and Parametric Modeling for Strategic Project Management will offer CIOs, CTOs and Software Development Managers, IT Graduate Students an introduction to a set of technologies that will help them understand how to better plan software development projects, manage risk and have better insight into the complexities of the software development process.A novel methodology will be introduced that allows a software development manager to better plan and access risks in the early planning of a project.  By providing a better model for early software development estimation and softw

  2. Marrying project deliverability models and labour supply for the oil sands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Albright, R.; Whitaker, C.A. [Fluor Canada Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    Alberta is predicting a labour shortage to support the construction and operation of planned oil sands projects in the region. This paper provided a framework of options available to stakeholders in addressing resource constraints from the viewpoint of Fluor Canada Ltd. A background of previous projects was presented, which highlighted various strategies used in the management of human resources issues. Strategies included local hiring through the Alberta-based trade unions; recruitment from other Canadian provinces; a higher ratio of apprentices; extremely high utilization crew schedules; and extended use of overtime. It was noted that these strategies resulted in some cost overruns and lower productivity levels. A productivity analysis was used to determine and resolve productivity issues. Various regulations in Alberta were discussed in relation to training programs and skilled immigrants. Various international training facilities operated by Fluor were reviewed. A factor model of human resources issues was presented. Summaries of supply chain management, systems, and technologies were presented. Issues concerning prefabrication, pre-assembly, modularization and offsite fabrication were discussed. It was concluded that by taking advantage of lessons learned in previous projects a solid foundation is set from which to plan for future requirements. Successful project execution is achieved by taking advantage of current technology; enhancing modular construction standards; and using supply chain management techniques and enhanced labour supply solutions. tabs., figs.

  3. Cash flow forecasting model for nuclear power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Wei; Guo Jilin

    2002-01-01

    Cash flow forecasting is very important for owners and contractors of nuclear power projects to arrange the capital and to decrease the capital cost. The factors related to contractor cash flow forecasting are analyzed and a cash flow forecasting model is presented which is suitable for both contractors and owners. The model is efficiently solved using a cost-schedule data integration scheme described. A program is developed based on the model and verified with real project data. The result indicates that the model is efficient and effective

  4. INDONESIAN TRADE UNDER CHINA FREE TRADE AREA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tavi Supriana

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the implementation of CAFTA (China-Asean Free Trade Area on the international trade flows across Indonesia, China and the rest of ASEAN using a gravitation model. It finds the evidence that the influence of diversion and creation effects on China are significant, while the influence of both effects on Indonesia are not significant. It also finds that the diversion effect, which leads to a decrease in society’s wealth, is greater than that of the creation effect. As a consequence, the gap across countries involved in the trade agreement is wider. Keywords: CAFTA, gravitation model, diversion effect, creation effectJEL classification numbers: F13, F14, F15

  5. Integrated modeling for the restoration project management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Mingucci

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces some possibilities offered by the Information Multimedia Archives (A.I.M., methodology aimed at existing architectures and important historic monuments documentation. The A.I.M.’s generation process and its digital archive structure result from studies on digital modeling and computer vision intended to document informative surveys, produced during two distinct acquiring and compiling phases. The data is collected in the A.I.M. through increasing levels of detail and organized through the use of databases developed in order to be queried by mobile devices too.

  6. Factors of trade in Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hanousek, Jan; Kočenda, Evžen

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 38, č. 4 (2014), s. 518-535 ISSN 0939-3625 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP403/12/0080 Grant - others:UK(CZ) UNCE 204005/2012 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : bilateral trade * factors of trade * panel data Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.649, year: 2014

  7. Cross-border trading and transmission networks: a model for competition in natural gas and electricity grids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogan, W.W.

    1992-01-01

    Cross border energy trading, for which transmission networks are a vital policy, is expanding. Within an environment of competition and open access, reform of transmission pricing, access and investment is needed. A theoretical framework for such reform is outlined. The design objectives advocated are to maintain a reliable service; to provide economic efficiency; to allow for long-term transmission contracts; to arrange compensation through a settlements system; to allow decomposition by region and company and to preserve administrative feasibility. A ''contract network'' model for transmission rights in a network is discussed. (UK)

  8. An EOQ model for a deteriorating item with non-linear demand under inflation and a trade credit policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manna S.K.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops an infinite time-horizon deterministic economic order quantity (EOQ inventory model with deterioration based on discounted cash flows (DCF approach where demand rate is assumed to be non-linear over time. The effects of inflation and time-value of money are also taken into account under a trade-credit policy of type "α/T1 net T". The results are illustrated with a numerical example. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to the parameters of the system is carried out.

  9. Projected Dipole Model for Quantum Plasmonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yan, Wei; Wubs, Martijn; Mortensen, N. Asger

    2015-01-01

    of classical electrodynamics, while quantum properties are described accurately through an infinitely thin layer of dipoles oriented normally to the metal surface. The nonlocal polarizability of the dipole layer-the only introduced parameter-is mapped from the free-electron distribution near the metal surface...... as obtained with 1D quantum calculations, such as time-dependent density-functional theory (TDDFT), and is determined once and for all. The model can be applied in two and three dimensions to any system size that is tractable within classical electrodynamics, while capturing quantum plasmonic aspects......Quantum effects of plasmonic phenomena have been explored through ab initio studies, but only for exceedingly small metallic nanostructures, leaving most experimentally relevant structures too large to handle. We propose instead an effective description with the computationally appealing features...

  10. A fuzzy multi-regional input–output optimization model for biomass production and trade under resource and footprint constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Raymond R.; Aviso, Kathleen B.; Barilea, Ivan U.; Culaba, Alvin B.; Cruz, Jose B.

    2012-01-01

    Interest in bioenergy in recent years has been stimulated by both energy security and climate change concerns. Fuels derived from agricultural crops offer the promise of reducing energy dependence for countries that have traditionally been dependent on imported energy. Nevertheless, it is evident that the potential for biomass production is heavily dependent on the availability of land and water resources. Furthermore, capacity expansion through land conversion is now known to incur a significant carbon debt that may offset any benefits in greenhouse gas reductions arising from the biofuel life cycle. Because of such constraints, there is increasing use of non-local biomass through regional trading. The main challenge in the analysis of such arrangements is that individual geographic regions have their own respective goals. This work presents a multi-region, fuzzy input–output optimization model that reflects production and consumption of bioenergy under land, water and carbon footprint constraints. To offset any local production deficits or surpluses, the model allows for trade to occur among different regions within a defined system; furthermore, importation of additional biofuel from external sources is also allowed. Two illustrative case studies are given to demonstrate the key features of the model.

  11. International collaborative fire modeling project (ICFMP). Summary of benchmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roewekamp, Marina; Klein-Hessling, Walter; Dreisbach, Jason; McGrattan, Kevin; Miles, Stewart; Plys, Martin; Riese, Olaf

    2008-09-01

    This document was developed in the frame of the 'International Collaborative Project to Evaluate Fire Models for Nuclear Power Plant Applications' (ICFMP). The objective of this collaborative project is to share the knowledge and resources of various organizations to evaluate and improve the state of the art of fire models for use in nuclear power plant fire safety, fire hazard analysis and fire risk assessment. The project is divided into two phases. The objective of the first phase is to evaluate the capabilities of current fire models for fire safety analysis in nuclear power plants. The second phase will extend the validation database of those models and implement beneficial improvements to the models that are identified in the first phase of ICFMP. In the first phase, more than 20 expert institutions from six countries were represented in the collaborative project. This Summary Report gives an overview on the results of the first phase of the international collaborative project. The main objective of the project was to evaluate the capability of fire models to analyze a variety of fire scenarios typical for nuclear power plants (NPP). The evaluation of the capability of fire models to analyze these scenarios was conducted through a series of in total five international Benchmark Exercises. Different types of models were used by the participating expert institutions from five countries. The technical information that will be useful for fire model users, developers and further experts is summarized in this document. More detailed information is provided in the corresponding technical reference documents for the ICFMP Benchmark Exercises No. 1 to 5. The objective of these exercises was not to compare the capabilities and strengths of specific models, address issues specific to a model, nor to recommend specific models over others. This document is not intended to provide guidance to users of fire models. Guidance on the use of fire models is currently being

  12. Theory, modeling, and integrated studies in the Arase (ERG) project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seki, Kanako; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi; Ebihara, Yusuke; Katoh, Yuto; Amano, Takanobu; Saito, Shinji; Shoji, Masafumi; Nakamizo, Aoi; Keika, Kunihiro; Hori, Tomoaki; Nakano, Shin'ya; Watanabe, Shigeto; Kamiya, Kei; Takahashi, Naoko; Omura, Yoshiharu; Nose, Masahito; Fok, Mei-Ching; Tanaka, Takashi; Ieda, Akimasa; Yoshikawa, Akimasa

    2018-02-01

    Understanding of underlying mechanisms of drastic variations of the near-Earth space (geospace) is one of the current focuses of the magnetospheric physics. The science target of the geospace research project Exploration of energization and Radiation in Geospace (ERG) is to understand the geospace variations with a focus on the relativistic electron acceleration and loss processes. In order to achieve the goal, the ERG project consists of the three parts: the Arase (ERG) satellite, ground-based observations, and theory/modeling/integrated studies. The role of theory/modeling/integrated studies part is to promote relevant theoretical and simulation studies as well as integrated data analysis to combine different kinds of observations and modeling. Here we provide technical reports on simulation and empirical models related to the ERG project together with their roles in the integrated studies of dynamic geospace variations. The simulation and empirical models covered include the radial diffusion model of the radiation belt electrons, GEMSIS-RB and RBW models, CIMI model with global MHD simulation REPPU, GEMSIS-RC model, plasmasphere thermosphere model, self-consistent wave-particle interaction simulations (electron hybrid code and ion hybrid code), the ionospheric electric potential (GEMSIS-POT) model, and SuperDARN electric field models with data assimilation. ERG (Arase) science center tools to support integrated studies with various kinds of data are also briefly introduced.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  13. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  14. Model projections for household energy use in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruijven, Bas J. van; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Vries, Bert J.M. de; Isaac, Morna; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P.; Lucas, Paul L.; Balachandra, P.

    2011-01-01

    Energy use in developing countries is heterogeneous across households. Present day global energy models are mostly too aggregate to account for this heterogeneity. Here, a bottom-up model for residential energy use that starts from key dynamic concepts on energy use in developing countries is presented and applied to India. Energy use and fuel choice is determined for five end-use functions (cooking, water heating, space heating, lighting and appliances) and for five different income quintiles in rural and urban areas. The paper specifically explores the consequences of different assumptions for income distribution and rural electrification on residential sector energy use and CO 2 emissions, finding that results are clearly sensitive to variations in these parameters. As a result of population and economic growth, total Indian residential energy use is expected to increase by around 65–75% in 2050 compared to 2005, but residential carbon emissions may increase by up to 9–10 times the 2005 level. While a more equal income distribution and rural electrification enhance the transition to commercial fuels and reduce poverty, there is a trade-off in terms of higher CO 2 emissions via increased electricity use. - Highlights: ► A bottom-up model for residential energy use was developed and applied to India. ► The model distinguishes five end-use functions and rural/urban income quintiles. ► We explore consequences of income distribution and electrification on energy use. ► Equal income and electrification enhance the transition to commercial fuels. ► Higher CO 2 emissions from increased electricity use are a trade-off.

  15. Projection model for flame chemiluminescence tomography based on lens imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Minggang; Zhuang, Jihui

    2018-04-01

    For flame chemiluminescence tomography (FCT) based on lens imaging, the projection model is essential because it formulates the mathematical relation between the flame projections captured by cameras and the chemiluminescence field, and, through this relation, the field is reconstructed. This work proposed the blurry-spot (BS) model, which takes more universal assumptions and has higher accuracy than the widely applied line-of-sight model. By combining the geometrical camera model and the thin-lens equation, the BS model takes into account perspective effect of the camera lens; by combining ray-tracing technique and Monte Carlo simulation, it also considers inhomogeneous distribution of captured radiance on the image plane. Performance of these two models in FCT was numerically compared, and results showed that using the BS model could lead to better reconstruction quality in wider application ranges.

  16. A new approach for modelling variability in residential construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Arashpour

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is plagued by long cycle times caused by variability in the supply chain. Variations or undesirable situations are the result of factors such as non-standard practices, work site accidents, inclement weather conditions and faults in design. This paper uses a new approach for modelling variability in construction by linking relative variability indicators to processes. Mass homebuilding sector was chosen as the scope of the analysis because data is readily available. Numerous simulation experiments were designed by varying size of capacity buffers in front of trade contractors, availability of trade contractors, and level of variability in homebuilding processes. The measurements were shown to lead to an accurate determination of relationships between these factors and production parameters. The variability indicator was found to dramatically affect the tangible performance measures such as home completion rates. This study provides for future analysis of the production homebuilding sector, which may lead to improvements in performance and a faster product delivery to homebuyers.

  17. A new approach for modelling variability in residential construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Arashpour

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is plagued by long cycle times caused by variability in the supply chain. Variations or undesirable situations are the result of factors such as non-standard practices, work site accidents, inclement weather conditions and faults in design. This paper uses a new approach for modelling variability in construction by linking relative variability indicators to processes. Mass homebuilding sector was chosen as the scope of the analysis because data is readily available. Numerous simulation experiments were designed by varying size of capacity buffers in front of trade contractors, availability of trade contractors, and level of variability in homebuilding processes. The measurements were shown to lead to an accurate determination of relationships between these factors and production parameters. The variability indicator was found to dramatically affect the tangible performance measures such as home completion rates. This study provides for future analysis of the production homebuilding sector, which may lead to improvements in performance and a faster product delivery to homebuyers. 

  18. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    KAUST Repository

    Kravitz, Ben

    2011-01-31

    To evaluate the effects of stratospheric geoengineering with sulphate aerosols, we propose standard forcing scenarios to be applied to multiple climate models to compare their results and determine the robustness of their responses. Thus far, different modeling groups have used different forcing scenarios for both global warming and geoengineering, complicating the comparison of results. We recommend four experiments to explore the extent to which geoengineering might offset climate change projected in some of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 experiments. These experiments focus on stratospheric aerosols, but future experiments under this framework may focus on different means of geoengineering. © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society.

  19. Applying a Hybrid MCDM Model for Six Sigma Project Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu-Kwun Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Six Sigma is a project-driven methodology; the projects that provide the maximum financial benefits and other impacts to the organization must be prioritized. Project selection (PS is a type of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM problem. In this study, we present a hybrid MCDM model combining the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL technique, analytic network process (ANP, and the VIKOR method to evaluate and improve Six Sigma projects for reducing performance gaps in each criterion and dimension. We consider the film printing industry of Taiwan as an empirical case. The results show that our study not only can use the best project selection, but can also be used to analyze the gaps between existing performance values and aspiration levels for improving the gaps in each dimension and criterion based on the influential network relation map.

  20. Managing wildland fires: integrating weather models into fire projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anne M. Rosenthal; Francis Fujioka

    2004-01-01

    Flames from the Old Fire sweep through lands north of San Bernardino during late fall of 2003. Like many Southern California fires, the Old Fire consumed susceptible forests at the urban-wildland interface and spread to nearby city neighborhoods. By incorporating weather models into fire perimeter projections, scientist Francis Fujioka is improving fire modeling as a...

  1. Improvement of the projection models for radiogenic cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tong Jian

    2005-01-01

    Calculations of radiogenic cancer risk are based on the risk projection models for specific cancer sites. Improvement has been made for the parameters used in the previous models including introductions of mortality and morbidity risk coefficients, and age-/ gender-specific risk coefficients. These coefficients have been applied to calculate the radiogenic cancer risks for specific organs and radionuclides under different exposure scenarios. (authors)

  2. Development and application of new quality model for software projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnavel, K; Dillibabu, R

    2014-01-01

    The IT industry tries to employ a number of models to identify the defects in the construction of software projects. In this paper, we present COQUALMO and its limitations and aim to increase the quality without increasing the cost and time. The computation time, cost, and effort to predict the residual defects are very high; this was overcome by developing an appropriate new quality model named the software testing defect corrective model (STDCM). The STDCM was used to estimate the number of remaining residual defects in the software product; a few assumptions and the detailed steps of the STDCM are highlighted. The application of the STDCM is explored in software projects. The implementation of the model is validated using statistical inference, which shows there is a significant improvement in the quality of the software projects.

  3. Partitioning uncertainty in streamflow projections under nonstationary model conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2018-02-01

    Assessing the impacts of Land Use (LU) and climate change on future streamflow projections is necessary for efficient management of water resources. However, model projections are burdened with significant uncertainty arising from various sources. Most of the previous studies have considered climate models and scenarios as major sources of uncertainty, but uncertainties introduced by land use change and hydrologic model assumptions are rarely investigated. In this paper an attempt is made to segregate the contribution from (i) general circulation models (GCMs), (ii) emission scenarios, (iii) land use scenarios, (iv) stationarity assumption of the hydrologic model, and (v) internal variability of the processes, to overall uncertainty in streamflow projections using analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Generally, most of the impact assessment studies are carried out with unchanging hydrologic model parameters in future. It is, however, necessary to address the nonstationarity in model parameters with changing land use and climate. In this paper, a regression based methodology is presented to obtain the hydrologic model parameters with changing land use and climate scenarios in future. The Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India is used as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is set-up over the basin, under nonstationary conditions. Results indicate that model parameters vary with time, thereby invalidating the often-used assumption of model stationarity. The streamflow in UGB under the nonstationary model condition is found to reduce in future. The flows are also found to be sensitive to changes in land use. Segregation results suggest that model stationarity assumption and GCMs along with their interactions with emission scenarios, act as dominant sources of uncertainty. This paper provides a generalized framework for hydrologists to examine stationarity assumption of models before considering them

  4. Trading Fees and Slow-Moving Capital

    OpenAIRE

    Buss, Adrian; Dumas, Bernard J

    2015-01-01

    In some situations, investment capital seems to move slowly towards profitable trades. We develop a model of a financial market in which capital moves slowly simply because there is a proportional cost to moving capital. We incorporate trading fees in an infinite-horizon dynamic general-equilibrium model in which investors optimally and endogenously decide when and how much to trade. We determine the steady-state equilibrium no-trade zone, study the dynamics of equilibrium trades and prices a...

  5. An EOQ model of time quadratic and inventory dependent demand for deteriorated items with partially backlogged shortages under trade credit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Pushpinder; Mishra, Nitin Kumar; Singh, Vikramjeet; Saxena, Seema

    2017-07-01

    In this paper a single buyer, single supplier inventory model with time quadratic and stock dependent demand for a finite planning horizon has been studied. Single deteriorating item which suffers shortage, with partial backlogging and some lost sales is considered. Model is divided into two scenarios, one with non permissible delay in payment and other with permissible delay in payment. Latter is called, centralized system, where supplier offers trade credit to retailer. In the centralized system cost saving is shared amongst the two. The objective is to study the difference in minimum costs borne by retailer and supplier, under two scenarios including the above mentioned parameters. To obtain optimal solution of the problem the model is solved analytically. Numerical example and a comparative study are then discussed supported by sensitivity analysis of each parameter.

  6. A detailed heterogeneous agent model for a single asset financial market with trading via an order book.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Mota Navarro

    Full Text Available We present an agent based model of a single asset financial market that is capable of replicating most of the non-trivial statistical properties observed in real financial markets, generically referred to as stylized facts. In our model agents employ strategies inspired on those used in real markets, and a realistic trade mechanism based on a double auction order book. We study the role of the distinct types of trader on the return statistics: specifically, correlation properties (or lack thereof, volatility clustering, heavy tails, and the degree to which the distribution can be described by a log-normal. Further, by introducing the practice of "profit taking", our model is also capable of replicating the stylized fact related to an asymmetry in the distribution of losses and gains.

  7. A detailed heterogeneous agent model for a single asset financial market with trading via an order book.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mota Navarro, Roberto; Larralde, Hernán

    2017-01-01

    We present an agent based model of a single asset financial market that is capable of replicating most of the non-trivial statistical properties observed in real financial markets, generically referred to as stylized facts. In our model agents employ strategies inspired on those used in real markets, and a realistic trade mechanism based on a double auction order book. We study the role of the distinct types of trader on the return statistics: specifically, correlation properties (or lack thereof), volatility clustering, heavy tails, and the degree to which the distribution can be described by a log-normal. Further, by introducing the practice of "profit taking", our model is also capable of replicating the stylized fact related to an asymmetry in the distribution of losses and gains.

  8. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database (Version 1.4)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.; Cillan, T.

    1993-09-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). The SWPM system provides a modeling and analysis environment that supports decisions in the process of evaluating various solid waste management alternatives. This document, one of a series describing the SWPM system, contains detailed information regarding the software and data structures utilized in developing the SWPM Version 1.4 Database. This document is intended for use by experienced database specialists and supports database maintenance, utility development, and database enhancement. Those interested in using the SWPM database should refer to the SWPM Database User's Guide. This document is available from the PNL Task M Project Manager (D. L. Stiles, 509-372-4358), the PNL Task L Project Manager (L. L. Armacost, 509-372-4304), the WHC Restoration Projects Section Manager (509-372-1443), or the WHC Waste Characterization Manager (509-372-1193)

  9. Adoption of Building Information Modelling in project planning risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mering, M. M.; Aminudin, E.; Chai, C. S.; Zakaria, R.; Tan, C. S.; Lee, Y. Y.; Redzuan, A. A.

    2017-11-01

    An efficient and effective risk management required a systematic and proper methodology besides knowledge and experience. However, if the risk management is not discussed from the starting of the project, this duty is notably complicated and no longer efficient. This paper presents the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in project planning risk management. The objectives is to identify the traditional risk management practices and its function, besides, determine the best function of BIM in risk management and investigating the efficiency of adopting BIM-based risk management during the project planning phase. In order to obtain data, a quantitative approach is adopted in this research. Based on data analysis, the lack of compliance with project requirements and failure to recognise risk and develop responses to opportunity are the risks occurred when traditional risk management is implemented. When using BIM in project planning, it works as the tracking of cost control and cash flow give impact on the project cycle to be completed on time. 5D cost estimation or cash flow modeling benefit risk management in planning, controlling and managing budget and cost reasonably. There were two factors that mostly benefit a BIM-based technology which were formwork plan with integrated fall plan and design for safety model check. By adopting risk management, potential risks linked with a project and acknowledging to those risks can be identified to reduce them to an acceptable extent. This means recognizing potential risks and avoiding threat by reducing their negative effects. The BIM-based risk management can enhance the planning process of construction projects. It benefits the construction players in various aspects. It is important to know the application of BIM-based risk management as it can be a lesson learnt to others to implement BIM and increase the quality of the project.

  10. Foreign Trade

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Foreign Trade database has monthly volume and value information for US imports, exports, and re-exports of fishery or fishery derived products. Data is...

  11. Nuclear energy in Europe: uranium flow modeling and fuel cycle scenario trade-offs from a sustainability perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tendall, Danielle M; Binder, Claudia R

    2011-03-15

    The European nuclear fuel cycle (covering the EU-27, Switzerland and Ukraine) was modeled using material flow analysis (MFA).The analysis was based on publicly available data from nuclear energy agencies and industries, national trade offices, and nongovernmental organizations. Military uranium was not considered due to lack of accessible data. Nuclear fuel cycle scenarios varying spent fuel reprocessing, depleted uranium re-enrichment, enrichment assays, and use of fast neutron reactors, were established. They were then assessed according to environmental, economic and social criteria such as resource depletion, waste production, chemical and radiation emissions, costs, and proliferation risks. The most preferable scenario in the short term is a combination of reduced tails assay and enrichment grade, allowing a 17.9% reduction of uranium demand without significantly increasing environmental, economic, or social risks. In the long term, fast reactors could theoretically achieve a 99.4% decrease in uranium demand and nuclear waste production. However, this involves important costs and proliferation risks. Increasing material efficiency is not systematically correlated with the reduction of other risks. This suggests that an overall optimization of the nuclear fuel cycle is difficult to obtain. Therefore, criteria must be weighted according to stakeholder interests in order to determine the most sustainable solution. This paper models the flows of uranium and associated materials in Europe, and provides a decision support tool for identifying the trade-offs of the alternative nuclear fuel cycles considered.

  12. An Economic Order Quantity Model with Completely Backordering and Nondecreasing Demand under Two-Level Trade Credit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohreh Molamohamadi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the traditional inventory system, it was implicitly assumed that the buyer pays to the seller as soon as he receives the items. In today’s competitive industry, however, the seller usually offers the buyer a delay period to settle the account of the goods. Not only the seller but also the buyer may apply trade credit as a strategic tool to stimulate his customers’ demands. This paper investigates the effects of the latter policy, two-level trade credit, on a retailer’s optimal ordering decisions within the economic order quantity framework and allowable shortages. Unlike most of the previous studies, the demand function of the customers is considered to increase with time. The objective of the retailer’s inventory model is to maximize the profit. The replenishment decisions optimally are obtained using genetic algorithm. Two special cases of the proposed model are discussed and the impacts of parameters on the decision variables are finally investigated. Numerical examples demonstrate the profitability of the developed two-level supply chain with backorder.

  13. Cacao Intensification in Sulawesi: A Green Prosperity Model Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriarty, K.; Elchinger, M.; Hill, G.; Katz, J.; Barnett, J.

    2014-09-01

    NREL conducted eight model projects for Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) Compact with Indonesia. Green Prosperity, the largest project of the Compact, seeks to address critical constraints to economic growth while supporting the Government of Indonesia's commitment to a more sustainable, less carbon-intensive future. This study evaluates techniques to improve cacao farming in Sulawesi Indonesia with an emphasis on Farmer Field Schools and Cocoa Development Centers to educate farmers and for train the trainer programs. The study estimates the economic viability of cacao farming if smallholder implement techniques to increase yield as well as social and environmental impacts of the project.

  14. Modeling Manpower and Equipment Productivity in Tall Building Construction Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudumbai Krishnaswamy, Parthasarathy; Rajiah, Murugasan; Vasan, Ramya

    2017-12-01

    Tall building construction projects involve two critical resources of manpower and equipment. Their usage, however, widely varies due to several factors affecting their productivity. Currently, no systematic study for estimating and increasing their productivity is available. What is prevalent is the use of empirical data, experience of similar projects and assumptions. As tall building projects are here to stay and increase, to meet the emerging demands in ever shrinking urban spaces, it is imperative to explore ways and means of scientific productivity models for basic construction activities: concrete, reinforcement, formwork, block work and plastering for the input of specific resources in a mixed environment of manpower and equipment usage. Data pertaining to 72 tall building projects in India were collected and analyzed. Then, suitable productivity estimation models were developed using multiple linear regression analysis and validated using independent field data. It is hoped that the models developed in the study will be useful for quantity surveyors, cost engineers and project managers to estimate productivity of resources in tall building projects.

  15. The continental free trade area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandrey, Ron; Jensen, Hans Grinsted

    The Trade Law Centre (tralac) has recently capitalised upon the prerelease Version 9.2 of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and the recent excellent data sets from the World Bank and other publishing quality data on trade barriers across the African continent. It undertook a series...... of simulations examining regional integration and intra-African trade barrier reductions. The results for tariff elimination on intra-African trade are promising. But the real news is in confirming that these barriers are not as significant as the various trade-related barriers except for tariffs. Especially...... impressive results were forecast by simulating a modest 20% reduction in the costs associated with the particular African problem of transit time delays at customs, terminals and internal land transportation. These gains are significantly above both just intraAfrican tariff elimination and what may...

  16. THE DISCRETE TIME, COST AND QUALITY TRADE-OFF PROBLEM IN PROJECT SCHEDULING: AN EFFICIENT SOLUTION METHOD BASED ON CELLDE ALGORITHM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gh. Assadipour

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT:The trade-off between time, cost, and quality is one of the important problems of project management. This problem assumes that all project activities can be executed in different modes of cost, time, and quality. Thus a manager should select each activity’s mode such that the project can meet the deadline with the minimum possible cost and the maximum achievable quality. As the problem is NP-hard and the objectives are in conflict with each other, a multi-objective meta-heuristic called CellDE, which is a hybrid cellular genetic algorithm, is implemented as the optimisation method. The proposed algorithm provides project managers with a set of non-dominated or Pareto-optimal solutions, and enables them to choose the best one according to their preferences. A set of problems of different sizes is generated and solved using the proposed algorithm. Three metrics are employed for evaluating the performance of the algorithm, appraising the diversity and convergence of the achieved Pareto fronts. Finally a comparison is made between CellDE and another meta-heuristic available in the literature. The results show the superiority of CellDE.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: ‘n Balans tussen tyd, koste en gehalte is een van die belangrike probleme van projekbestuur. Die vraagstuk maak gewoonlik die aanname dat alle projekaktiwiteite uitgevoer kan word op uiteenlopende wyses wat verband hou met koste, tyd en gehalte. ‘n Projekbestuurder selekteer gewoonlik die uitvoeringsmetodes sodanig per aktiwiteit dat gehoor gegegee word aan minimum koste en maksimum gehalte teen die voorwaarde van voltooiingsdatum wat bereik moet word.

    Aangesien die beskrewe problem NP-hard is, word dit behandel ten opsigte van konflikterende doelwitte met ‘n multidoelwit metaheuristiese metode (CellDE. Die metode is ‘n hibride-sellulêre genetiese algoritme. Die algoritme lewer aan die besluitvormer ‘n versameling van ongedomineerde of Pareto

  17. On reducibility and ergodicity of population projection matrix models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    from all stages to all other stages) and therefore ergodic (whatever initial stage structure is used in the population projection, it will always exhibit the same stable asymptotic growth rate). 2. Evaluation of 652 PPM models for 171 species from the literature suggests that 24·7% of PPM models...... structure used in the population projection). In our sample of published PPMs, 15·6% are non-ergodic. 3. This presents a problem: reducible–ergodic models often defy biological rationale in their description of the life cycle but may or may not prove problematic for analysis as they often behave similarly...... of reducibility in published PPMs, with significant implications for the predictive power of such models in many cases. We suggest that as a general rule, reducibility of PPM models should be avoided. However, we provide a guide to the pertinent analysis of reducible matrix models, largely based upon whether...

  18. A model of the environmental impacts of hydropower projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemppainen, T.; Haemaelaeinen, I.

    1992-01-01

    The aim was to create a model of the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects in Finland. To illustrate the effects of hydropower projects a checklist in the form of matrice was constructed. In this matrice all issues that could be significant in future hydropower projects were collected. Stable physical environmental changes are the starting-point for this matrice. The temporary change of hydropower constructions have also been under consideration. These are mainly environmental changes during construction. In chapter two the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects physical environmental changes were examined. In chapter three the matrice was applied to some example cases. The cases were chosen to represent future hydropower projects. In addition these example cases represent urban areas, rural areas and uninhabited areas. The example cases were the extension of Tainionkoski hydropower plant at Vuoksi river, the modernization of Aeetsae power plant at Kokemaeenjoki river, the modernization of Stadsfors power plant at Lapuanjoki river in the centre of Uusikaarlepyy town and the construction of Kaitfors power plant at Perhonjoki river. Conclusions from usability of the model can be drawn on the ground of the example cases. The purpose of the model is to produce a checklist of estimated environmental effects in hydropower project of various kinds. Examination of issues within the model depends on local circumstances. Endangered animal and plant species, for example, can be studied and estimated only if endangered animal and plant species exist in the area of hydropower plant. Furthermore, the direction and extent of environmental effects depend on the local circumstances. The model is mainly a checklist of environmental effects caused by hydropower plant projects

  19. Modelling of Airship Flight Mechanics by the Projection Equivalent Method

    OpenAIRE

    Frantisek Jelenciak; Michael Gerke; Ulrich Borgolte

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the projection equivalent method (PEM) as a specific and relatively simple approach for the modelling of aircraft dynamics. By the PEM it is possible to obtain a mathematic al model of the aerodynamic forces and momentums acting on different kinds of aircraft during flight. For the PEM, it is a characteristic of it that - in principle - it provides an acceptable regression model of aerodynamic forces and momentums which exhibits reasonable and plausible behaviour from a...

  20. The performance indicators of model projects. A special evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-11-01

    As a result of the acknowledgment of the key role of the Model Project concept in the Agency's Technical Co-operation Programme, the present review of the objectives of the model projects which are now in operation, was undertaken, as recommended by the Board of Governors, to determine at an early stage: the extent to which the present objectives have been defined in a measurable way; whether objectively verifiable performance indicators and success criteria had been identified for each project; whether mechanisms to obtain feedback on the achievements had been foreseen. The overall budget for the 23 model projects, as approved from 1994 to 1998, amounts to $32,557,560, of which 45% is funded by Technical Co-operation Fund. This represents an average investment of about $8 million per year, that is over 15% of the annual TC budget. The conceptual importance of the Model Project initiative, as well as the significant funds allocated to them, led the Secretariat to plan the methods to be used to determine their socio-economic impact. 1 tab

  1. A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR IMPROVED PROJECT SELECTION AND PRIORITISATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Viljoen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Project portfolio management processes are often designed and operated as a series of stages (or project phases and gates. However, the flow of such a process is often slow, characterised by queues waiting for a gate decision and by repeated work from previous stages waiting for additional information or for re-processing. In this paper the authors propose a conceptual model that applies supply chain and constraint management principles to the project portfolio management process. An advantage of the proposed model is that it provides the ability to select and prioritise projects without undue changes to project schedules. This should result in faster flow through the system.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Prosesse om portefeuljes van projekte te bestuur word normaalweg ontwerp en bedryf as ’n reeks fases en hekke. Die vloei deur so ’n proses is dikwels stadig en word gekenmerk deur toue wat wag vir besluite by die hekke en ook deur herwerk van vorige fases wat wag vir verdere inligting of vir herprosessering. In hierdie artikel word ‘n konseptuele model voorgestel. Die model berus op die beginsels van voorsieningskettings sowel as van beperkingsbestuur, en bied die voordeel dat projekte geselekteer en geprioritiseer kan word sonder onnodige veranderinge aan projekskedules. Dit behoort te lei tot versnelde vloei deur die stelsel.

  2. Are Preferential Trade Agreements with Non-trade Objectives a Stumbling Block for Multilateral Liberalization?

    OpenAIRE

    Nuno Limão

    2007-01-01

    In many preferential trade agreements (PTAs), countries exchange not only reductions in trade barriers but also cooperation in non-trade issues such as labour and environmental standards, intellectual property, etc. We provide a model of PTAs motivated by cooperation in non-trade issues and analyse its implications for global free trade and welfare. We find that such PTAs increase the cost of multilateral tariff reductions and thus cause a stumbling block to global free trade. This occurs bec...

  3. ETUDE - European Trade Union Distance Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creanor, Linda; Walker, Steve

    2000-01-01

    Describes transnational distance learning activities among European trade union educators carried out as part of the European Trade Union Distance Education (ETUDE) project, supported by the European Commission. Highlights include the context of international trade union distance education; tutor training course; tutors' experiences; and…

  4. Gravity with Intermediate Goods Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujin Jang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper derives the gravity equation with intermediate goods trade. We extend a standard monopolistic competition model to incorporate intermediate goods trade, and show that the gravity equation with intermediates trade is identical to the one without it except in that gross output should be used as the output measure instead of value added. We also show that the output elasticity of trade is significantly underestimated when value added is used as the output measure. This implies that with the conventional gravity equation, the contribution of output growth can be substantially underestimated and the role of trade costs reduction can be exaggerated in explaining trade expansion, as we demonstrate for the case of Korea's trade growth between 1995 and 2007.

  5. Generation of predictive price and trading volume patterns in a model of dynamically evolving free market supply and demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. K. Wang

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available I present a model of stock market price fluctuations incorporating effects of share supply as a history-dependent function of previous purchases and share demand as a function of price deviation from moving averages. Price charts generated show intervals of oscillations switching amplitude and frequency suddenly in time, forming price and trading volume patterns well-known in market technical analysis. Ultimate price trends agree with traditional predictions for specific patterns. The consideration of dynamically evolving supply and demand in this model resolves the apparent contradiction with the Efficient Market Hypothesis: perceptions of imprecise equity values by a world of investors evolve over non-negligible periods of time, with dependence on price history.

  6. Three stage trade credit policy in a three-layer supply chain-a production-inventory model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Brojeswar; Sankar Sana, Shib; Chaudhuri, Kripasindhu

    2014-09-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal replenishment lot size of supplier and optimal production rate of manufacturer under three levels of trade credit policy for supplier-manufacturer-retailer supply chain. The supplier provides a fixed credit period to settle the accounts to the manufacturer, while the manufacturer gives a fixed credit period to settle the account to the retailer and the retailer, in turn, also offers a credit period to each of its customers to settle the accounts. We assume that the supplier supplies the raw material to the manufacturer and sends back the defective raw materials to the outside supplier after completion of inspection at one lot with a sales price. The system always produces good items in the model. Also, we consider the idle times of supplier and manufacturer. Finally, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the behaviour and application of the model with graphical simulation.

  7. Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation And Agriculture, Trade-off Or Win-win Situation: Bioeconomic Farm Modelling In The Sudanian Area of Burkina Faso

    Science.gov (United States)

    Some, T. E.; Barbier, B.

    2015-12-01

    Climate changes talks regularly underline that developing countries' agriculture could play a stronger role in GHGs mitigation strategies and benefit from the Kyoto Protocol program of subsidies. Scientists explain that agriculture can contribute to carbon mitigation by storing more carbon in the soil through greener cropping systems. In this context, a growing number of research projects have started to investigate how developing countries agriculture can contribute to these objectives. The clean development mechanism (CDM) proposed in the Kyoto protocol is one particular policy instrument that can incite farmers to mitigate the GHG balance towards more sequestration and less emission. Some economists such as Michael Porter think that environmental regulation lead to a win-win outcome, in which case subsidies are not necessary. If it is a trade-off between incomes and the environment, subsidies are required. CDM can be mobilized to support the mitigation strategy. Agriculture implies the use of inputs. Reducing the emission implies the reduction of those inputs which will in turn imply a yield decrease. The study aims to assess whether this measure will imply a trade-off between environmental and economic objectives or a win-win situation. I apply this study to the case of small farmers in Burkina Faso through environmental instruments such as the emissions limits and agroforestry using a bioeconomic model, in which the farmers maximize their utility subject to constraints. The study finds that the limitation of emissions in annual crops production involves a trade-off. by impacting negatively their net cash come. By integrating perennial crops in the farming system, the farmers' utility increases. Around 6,118 kg are sequestrated individually. By computing the value on this carbon balance, farmers' net cash incomes go better. Then practicing agroforestry is a win-win situation, as they reach a higher level of income, and reduce emissions. Policymakers must

  8. Construction project investment control model based on instant information

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xue-tong

    2006-01-01

    Change of construction conditions always influences project investment by causing the loss of construction work time and extending the duration. To resolve such problem as difficult dynamic control in work construction plan, this article presents a concept of instant optimization by ways of adjustment operation time of each working procedure to minimize investment change. Based on this concept, its mathematical model is established and a strict mathematical justification is performed. An instant optimization model takes advantage of instant information in the construction process to duly complete adjustment of construction; thus we maximize cost efficiency of project investment.

  9. Strategic production modeling for defective items with imperfect inspection process, rework, and sales return under two-level trade credit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aditi Khanna

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Quality decisions are one of the major decisions in inventory management. It affects customer’s demand, loyalty and customer satisfaction and also inventory costs. Every manufacturing process is inherent to have some chance causes of variation which may lead to some defectives in the lot. So, in order to cater the customers with faultless products, an inspection process is inevitable, which may also be prone to errors. Thus for an operations manager, maintaining the quality of the lot and the screening process becomes a challenging task, when his objective is to determine the optimal order quantity for the inventory system. Besides these operational tasks, the goal is also to increase the customer base which eventually leads to higher profits. So, as a promotional tool, trade credit is being offered by both the retailer and supplier to their respective customers to encourage more frequent and higher volume purchases. Thus taking into account of these facts, a strategic production model is formulated here to study the combined effects of imperfect quality items, faulty inspection process, rework process, sales return under two level trade credit. The present study is a general framework for many articles and classical EPQ model. An analytical method is employed which jointly optimizes the retailer’s credit period and order quantity, so as to maximize the expected total profit per unit time. To study the behavior and application of the model, a numerical example has been cited and a comprehensive sensitivity analysis has been performed. The model can be widely applicable in manufacturing industries like textile, footwear, plastics, electronics, furniture etc.

  10. The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM): a projection model for timber supply and policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.L. Tedder; R.N. La Mont; J.C. Kincaid

    1987-01-01

    TRIM (Timber Resource Inventory Model) is a yield table projection system developed for timber supply projections and policy analysis. TRIM simulates timber growth, inventories, management and area changes, and removals over the projection period. Programs in the TRIM system, card-by-card descriptions of required inputs, table formats, and sample results are presented...

  11. Trading green electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davies, M.

    1997-01-01

    A study has been carried out into the feasibility of developing an electricity trading mechanism which would allow consumers to purchase electricity which has been derived from renewable energy resources. This study was part funded by the European Commission (ALTENER), the Department of Trade and Industry and a number of private sector companies. The trading mechanism is known as the Green Pool. As a result of the findings of this study discussions are being held with potential generators and suppliers to establish a Green Pool plc. The aim is to encourage the development of new renewable energy projects outside the NFFO and SRO schemes. The Green Pool plc will be owned by the generators and its main objective will be to market the electricity produced by its members. (Author)

  12. Modeling the spatio-temporal dynamics of porcine reproductive & respiratory syndrome cases at farm level using geographical distance and pig trade network matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amirpour Haredasht, Sara; Polson, Dale; Main, Rodger; Lee, Kyuyoung; Holtkamp, Derald; Martínez-López, Beatriz

    2017-06-07

    Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is one of the most economically devastating infectious diseases for the swine industry. A better understanding of the disease dynamics and the transmission pathways under diverse epidemiological scenarios is a key for the successful PRRS control and elimination in endemic settings. In this paper we used a two step parameter-driven (PD) Bayesian approach to model the spatio-temporal dynamics of PRRS and predict the PRRS status on farm in subsequent time periods in an endemic setting in the US. For such purpose we used information from a production system with 124 pig sites that reported 237 PRRS cases from 2012 to 2015 and from which the pig trade network and geographical location of farms (i.e., distance was used as a proxy of airborne transmission) was available. We estimated five PD models with different weights namely: (i) geographical distance weight which contains the inverse distance between each pair of farms in kilometers, (ii) pig trade weight (PT ji ) which contains the absolute number of pig movements between each pair of farms, (iii) the product between the distance weight and the standardized relative pig trade weight, (iv) the product between the standardized distance weight and the standardized relative pig trade weight, and (v) the product of the distance weight and the pig trade weight. The model that included the pig trade weight matrix provided the best fit to model the dynamics of PRRS cases on a 6-month basis from 2012 to 2015 and was able to predict PRRS outbreaks in the subsequent time period with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.88 and the accuracy of 85% (105/124). The result of this study reinforces the importance of pig trade in PRRS transmission in the US. Methods and results of this study may be easily adapted to any production system to characterize the PRRS dynamics under diverse epidemic settings to more timely support decision-making.

  13. SESAME as a Model Project for Other Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winick, Herman

    2013-03-01

    UNESCO became the umbrella organization for SESAME at its Executive Board 164th session, May 2002. The following comments about SESAME were made by this board: ``a quintessential UNESCO project combining capacity building with vital peace-building through science'' and ``a model project for other regions.'' Now that SESAME is well underway, other regions (e.g.; Africa and Central Asia) should be made aware of this progress, and they should be welcomed to join SESAME as a first step in developing similar projects in their region. Students and scientists from other regions should be encouraged to attend SESAME Users' meeting, schools, workshops, etc. where they can learn about synchrotron radiation sources, beamlines, and science. They should be invited to join SESAME scientists in designing and commissioning accelerators and beamlines, gaining relevant experience for their own projects and helping SESAME in the process. Work supported by DOE Office of Basic Energy Sciences

  14. The Study on Stage Financing Model of IT Project Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Si-hua Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

  15. The Study on Stage Financing Model of IT Project Investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Sheng-hua; Xiong, Neal N.

    2014-01-01

    Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model. PMID:25147845

  16. The study on stage financing model of IT project investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Si-hua; Xu, Sheng-hua; Lee, Changhoon; Xiong, Neal N; He, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

  17. Production inventory model for two-level trade credit financing under the effect of preservation technology and learning in supply chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunil Kumar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigated the inventory model for a retailer under two levels of trade credit to reflect the supply chain management. Supplier offers trade credit period of M to the retailer while in turn retailer provides a trade credit period of N to his/her customers. The supplier is willing to provide the retailer a full trade credit period for payments and the retailer offers the partial trade credit period to his/her customers. Here, selling items are considered as perishable items such as fruits, fresh fishes, gasoline, photographic films, etc. so that its potential worth decreases. It is assumed that decay in potential worth of items can be increased by using preservation technology. The demand is considered as the function of selling price and trade credit. Ordering cost can be reducing due to learning by doing phenomenon. By applying convex fractional programming results, we obtain necessary and sufficient conditions of an optimal solution. Some theorems are developed to determine retailer’s optimal ordering policies and numerical examples are given to illustrate these theorems. In addition, some managerial insights from the numerical examples are also concluded.

  18. Incentive Model Based on Cooperative Relationship in Sustainable Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangdong Wu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Considering the cooperative relationship between owners and contractors in sustainable construction projects, as well as the synergistic effects created by cooperative behaviors, a cooperative incentive model was developed using game theory. The model was formulated and analyzed under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations. Then, a numerical simulation and example were proposed to verify the conclusions derived from the model. The results showed that the synergistic effect increases the input intensity of one party’s resource transfer into the increase of marginal utility of the other party, thus the owner and contractor are willing to enhance their levels of effort. One party’s optimal benefit allocation coefficient is positively affected by its own output efficiency, and negatively affected by the other party’s output efficiency. The effort level and expected benefits of the owner and contractor can be improved by enhancing the cooperative relationship between the two parties, as well as enhancing the net benefits of a sustainable construction project. The synergistic effect cannot lower the negative effect of moral hazard behaviors during the implementation of sustainable construction projects. Conversely, the higher levels of the cooperative relationship, the wider the gaps amongst the optimal values under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations for the levels of effort, expected benefits and net project benefits. Since few studies to date have emphasized the effects of cooperative relationship on sustainable construction projects, this study constructed a game-based incentive model to bridge the gaps. This study contributes significant theoretical and practical insights into the management of cooperation amongst stakeholders, and into the enhancement of the overall benefits of sustainable construction projects.

  19. Projecting changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources: A critical review of the suite of modelling approaches used in the large European project VECTORS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peck, Myron A.; Arvanitidis, Christos; Butenschön, Momme; Canu, Donata Melaku; Chatzinikolaou, Eva; Cucco, Andrea; Domenici, Paolo; Fernandes, Jose A.; Gasche, Loic; Huebert, Klaus B.; Hufnagl, Marc; Jones, Miranda C.; Kempf, Alexander; Keyl, Friedemann; Maar, Marie; Mahévas, Stéphanie; Marchal, Paul; Nicolas, Delphine; Pinnegar, John K.; Rivot, Etienne; Rochette, Sébastien; Sell, Anne F.; Sinerchia, Matteo; Solidoro, Cosimo; Somerfield, Paul J.; Teal, Lorna R.; Travers-Trolet, Morgan; van de Wolfshaar, Karen E.

    2018-02-01

    We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the

  20. The Carbon Trading Price and Trading Volume Forecast in Shanghai City by BP Neural Network

    OpenAIRE

    Liu Zhiyuan; Sun Zongdi

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, the BP neural network model is established to predict the carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City. First of all, we find the data of carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City from September 30, 2015 to December 23, 2016. The carbon trading price and trading volume data were processed to get the average value of each 5, 10, 20, 30, and 60 carbon trading price and trading volume. Then, these data are used as input of BP neural network...

  1. Project W-320 thermal hydraulic model benchmarking and baselining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathyanarayana, K.

    1998-01-01

    Project W-320 will be retrieving waste from Tank 241-C-106 and transferring the waste to Tank 241-AY-102. Waste in both tanks must be maintained below applicable thermal limits during and following the waste transfer. Thermal hydraulic process control models will be used for process control of the thermal limits. This report documents the process control models and presents a benchmarking of the models with data from Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102. Revision 1 of this report will provide a baselining of the models in preparation for the initiation of sluicing

  2. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

    2011-01-01

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltration, runoff, ET) component, which subsequently impacts the rest of the...

  3. Modelling Project Feasibility Robustness by Use of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld; Leleur, Steen

    1998-01-01

    , SEAM secures a consistent inclusion of actual scenario elements in the quantitative impact modelling and facilitates a transparent project feasibility robustness analysis. SEAM is implemented as part of a decision support system with a toolbox structure applicable to different types of transport...

  4. Identification of linear error-models with projected dynamical systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krejčí, Pavel; Kuhnen, K.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 1 (2004), s. 59-91 ISSN 1387-3954 Keywords : identification * error models * projected dynamical systems Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.292, year: 2004 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a713682517

  5. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

    2013-01-01

    At the hillslope profile and/or field scale, a simple Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is available to easily specify the slope, soil, and management inputs for application of the USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Likewise, basic small watershed configurations of a few hillslopes and channels can be created and simulated with this GUI. However,...

  6. Application of Markovian model to school enrolment projection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Application of Markovian model to school enrolment projection process. VU Ekhosuehi, AA Osagiede. Abstract. No Abstract. Global Journal of Mathematical Sciences Vol. 5(1) 2006: 9-16. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT.

  7. МULTI-STAKEHOLDER MODEL OF EDUCATION PROJECT QUALITY MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Юлия Юрьевна ГУСЕВА

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of approaches to the definition of higher education projects’ stakeholders is conducted. A model of education project quality management with the influence of stakeholders is formed. A mechanism of recognition of new groups of project’s stakeholders on the basis of set theory is offered.

  8. Projected shell model study of neutron- deficient 122Ce

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Projected shell model; band diagram; yrast energies; electromagnetic quan- ... signed to 122Ce by detecting γ-rays in coincidence with evaporated charged particles .... 0.75 from the free nucleon values to account for the core-polarization and ...

  9. Canadian municipal carbon trading primer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seskus, A.

    2002-01-01

    The trading of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is being suggested as an effective economic way to meet Canada's Kyoto target. Emissions trading is a market-based instrument that can help achieve environmental improvements while using the market to absorb the economical and effective measures to achieve emissions reductions. Placing a value on emissions means that in order to minimize costs, companies will be motivated to apply the lowest-cost emission reductions possible for regulatory approval. The two main types of emissions trading that exist in Canada are the trading of emissions that lead to the formation of smog or acid rain, and the trading of greenhouse gas emissions that lead to climate change. Since carbon dioxide is the most prevalent GHG, making up approximately 75 per cent of Canadian GHG emissions, the trading of units of GHGs is often referred to as carbon trading. The impact that emissions trading will have on municipal operations was the focus of this primer. The trading of GHG involves buying and selling of allowances of GHGs between contracting parties, usually between one party that is short of GHG credits and another that has excess credits. The 3 common approaches to emissions trading include allowance trading (cap and trade), credit trading (baseline and credit), and a hybrid system which combines both credit and allowance trading systems. The issues that impact municipalities include the debate regarding who owns the credits from landfills, particularly if power is generated using landfill gas and the power is sold as green power. Other viable questions were also addressed, including who can claim emission reduction credits if a city implements energy efficiency projects, or fuel substitution programs. Also, will municipalities be allowed to trade internationally, for example, with municipalities in the United States, and how should they spend their money earned from selling credits. This report also presents highlights from 3 emissions

  10. Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Project Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bader, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-09-18

    The E3SM project will assert and maintain an international scientific leadership position in the development of Earth system and climate models at the leading edge of scientific knowledge and computational capabilities. With its collaborators, it will demonstrate its leadership by using these models to achieve the goal of designing, executing, and analyzing climate and Earth system simulations that address the most critical scientific questions for the nation and DOE.

  11. Modelling of project cash flow on construction projects in Malang city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djatmiko, Bambang

    2017-09-01

    Contractors usually prepare a project cash flow (PCF) on construction projects. The flow of cash in and cash out within a construction project may vary depending on the owner, contract documents, and construction service providers who have their own authority. Other factors affecting the PCF are down payment, termyn, progress schedule, material schedule, equipment schedule, manpower schedules, and wages of workers and subcontractors. This study aims to describe the cash inflow and cash outflow based on the empirical data obtained from contractors, develop a PCF model based on Halpen & Woodhead's PCF model, and investigate whether or not there is a significant difference between the Halpen & Woodhead's PCF model and the empirical PCF model. Based on the researcher's observation, the PCF management has never been implemented by the contractors in Malang in serving their clients (owners). The research setting is in Malang City because physical development in all field and there are many new construction service providers. The findings in this current study are summarised as follows: 1) Cash in included current assets (20%), owner's down payment (20%), termyin I (5%-25%), termyin II (20%), termyin III (25%), termyin IV (25%) and retention (5%). Cash out included direct cost (65%), indirect cost (20%), and profit + informal cost(15%), 2)the construction work involving the empirical PCF model in this study was started with the funds obtained from DP or current assets and 3) The two models bear several similarities in the upward trends of direct cost, indirect cost, Pro Ic, progress billing, and S-curve. The difference between the two models is the occurrence of overdraft in the Halpen and Woodhead's PCF model only.

  12. Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, J.; Frías, M. D.; Cabos, W. D.; Cofiño, A. S.; Domínguez, M.; Fita, L.; Gaertner, M. A.; García-Díez, M.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Liguori, G.; Montávez, J. P.; Romera, R.; Sánchez, E.

    2018-03-01

    We present an unprecedented ensemble of 196 future climate projections arising from different global and regional model intercomparison projects (MIPs): CMIP3, CMIP5, ENSEMBLES, ESCENA, EURO- and Med-CORDEX. This multi-MIP ensemble includes all regional climate model (RCM) projections publicly available to date, along with their driving global climate models (GCMs). We illustrate consistent and conflicting messages using continental Spain and the Balearic Islands as target region. The study considers near future (2021-2050) changes and their dependence on several uncertainty sources sampled in the multi-MIP ensemble: GCM, future scenario, internal variability, RCM, and spatial resolution. This initial work focuses on mean seasonal precipitation and temperature changes. The results show that the potential GCM-RCM combinations have been explored very unevenly, with favoured GCMs and large ensembles of a few RCMs that do not respond to any ensemble design. Therefore, the grand-ensemble is weighted towards a few models. The selection of a balanced, credible sub-ensemble is challenged in this study by illustrating several conflicting responses between the RCM and its driving GCM and among different RCMs. Sub-ensembles from different initiatives are dominated by different uncertainty sources, being the driving GCM the main contributor to uncertainty in the grand-ensemble. For this analysis of the near future changes, the emission scenario does not lead to a strong uncertainty. Despite the extra computational effort, for mean seasonal changes, the increase in resolution does not lead to important changes.

  13. Project Finance Model for Small Contractors in USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jawahar Nesan

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Construction projects do not require a large capital outlay but a large working capital to start up the project. Unfortunately, for small contractors there are very limited options available from the banks or other lending institutions to cover this large working capital requirement in the absence of sufficient collateral. The “Project Finance” method presented in this paper is recommended as the most effective method for small contractors in the United States. The problems of small and start up contractors in funding their projects have been little addressed in the literature. The current financing practices were observed through both the literature review and interviews with contractors and bankers in the western Michigan area and subsequently a system has been proposed which could help a small start-up company seeking higher growth. The growth rates that can be achieved using the project finance system in contrast to the traditional “line of credit” arrangements as illustrated in this paper show that the project finance model is beneficial.

  14. The DART general equilibrium model: A technical description

    OpenAIRE

    Springer, Katrin

    1998-01-01

    This paper provides a technical description of the Dynamic Applied Regional Trade (DART) General Equilibrium Model. The DART model is a recursive dynamic, multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model. All regions are fully specified and linked by bilateral trade flows. The DART model can be used to project economic activities, energy use and trade flows for each of the specified regions to simulate various trade policy as well as environmental policy scenarios, and to analy...

  15. Between Complexity and Parsimony: Can Agent-Based Modelling Resolve the Trade-off

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Helle Ørsted; Malawska, Anna Katarzyna

    2013-01-01

    to BR- based policy studies would be to couple research on bounded ra-tionality with agent-based modeling. Agent-based models (ABMs) are computational models for simulating the behavior and interactions of any number of decision makers in a dynamic system. Agent-based models are better suited than...... are general equilibrium models for capturing behavior patterns of complex systems. ABMs may have the potential to represent complex systems without oversimplifying them. At the same time, research in bounded rationality and behavioral economics has already yielded many insights that could inform the modeling......While Herbert Simon espoused development of general models of behavior, he also strongly advo-cated that these models be based on realistic assumptions about humans and therefore reflect the complexity of human cognition and social systems (Simon 1997). Hence, the model of bounded rationality...

  16. An age-structured approach to modelling behavioural variation maintained by life-history trade-offs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew H T Chan

    Full Text Available There have been numerous empirical studies on the fitness consequences of behavioural syndromes in various animal taxa; however, the ecological and evolutionary implications on a population level are still poorly understood. To better understand these implications, we develop a non-linear age-structured mathematical model to qualitatively examine the evolutionary consequences of a heritable boldness personality trait within an animal population. We assume that this heritable boldness trait is positively correlated with boldness towards predators and intraspecific aggressiveness. This assumption leads to a growth/reproductive success versus mortality trade-off, which is thoroughly investigated and documented in the literature. Another life-history trade-off we include in the model is future versus current reproduction, which was shown by Wolf et al. to be a possible mechanism for the evolution of behavioural syndromes within an animal population. The stability of the system is analysed, whereby the characteristic equation is in the form of a homogeneous Fredholm equation of the second kind which depends on both the perturbation and equilibrium solution. The system is found to be stable due to the competition between individuals of similar boldness acting as a negative feedback mechanism. Using numerical simulations we examine the qualitative features of the solution to the system. In particular, we investigate the interplay between the mutation and competition strength between two individuals with different boldness, whereby we find that an increasing competition range acts to push individuals to both extremes of the shy-bold axis, while an increasing mutation range counteracts this effect. This qualitative trait of aggregation of individuals around the shy and bold extremes is also found when examining different birth, mortality and competition functions.

  17. Twisted sigma-model solitons on the quantum projective line

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landi, Giovanni

    2018-04-01

    On the configuration space of projections in a noncommutative algebra, and for an automorphism of the algebra, we use a twisted Hochschild cocycle for an action functional and a twisted cyclic cocycle for a topological term. The latter is Hochschild-cohomologous to the former and positivity in twisted Hochschild cohomology results into a lower bound for the action functional. While the equations for the critical points are rather involved, the use of the positivity and the bound by the topological term lead to self-duality equations (thus yielding twisted noncommutative sigma-model solitons, or instantons). We present explicit nontrivial solutions on the quantum projective line.

  18. Results of the ITER toroidal field model coil project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salpietro, E.; Maix, R.

    2001-01-01

    In the scope of the ITER EDA one of the seven largest projects was devoted to the development, manufacture and testing of a Toroidal Field Model Coil (TFMC). The industry consortium AGAN manufactured the TFMC based on on a conceptual design developed by the ITER EDA EU Home Team. The TFMC was completed and assembled in the test facility TOSKA of the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe in the first half of 2001. The first testing phase started in June 2001 and lasted till October 2001. The first results have shown that the main goals of the project have been achieved

  19. An Inventory Model for Deteriorating Item with Reliability Consideration and Trade Credit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Singh

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In today’s global market every body want to buy products of high level quality and to achieve a high level product quality supplier have to invest in improving reliability of production process. In present article we have studies reliable production process with stock dependent unit production and holding cost. Demand is exponential function of time and infinite production process wit non- instantaneous deterioration rate are considered in this paper. Whole study has been done under the effect of trade credit. The main objective of this paper is to optimize the total relevant cost for reliable production process. Numerical example and sensitivity analysis is given at the end of this paper.   Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}

  20. Integration of models for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.

    1991-01-01

    The objective of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project is to estimate the radiation dose that individuals could have received as a result of emissions from nuclear operations at Hanford since 1944. The objective of phase 1 of the project was to demonstrate through calculations that adequate models and support data exist or could be developed to allow realistic estimations of doses to individuals from releases of radionuclides to the environment that occurred as long as 45 years ago. Much of the data used in phase 1 was preliminary; therefore, the doses calculated must be considered preliminary approximations. This paper describes the integration of various models that was implemented for initial computer calculations. Models were required for estimating the quantity of radioactive material released, for evaluating its transport through the environment, for estimating human exposure, and for evaluating resultant doses

  1. Lectures on nonlinear sigma-models in projective superspace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzenko, Sergei M

    2010-01-01

    N= 2 supersymmetry in four spacetime dimensions is intimately related to hyperkaehler and quaternionic Kaehler geometries. On one hand, the target spaces for rigid supersymmetric sigma-models are necessarily hyperkaehler manifolds. On the other hand, when coupled to N= 2 supergravity, the sigma-model target spaces must be quaternionic Kaehler. It is known that such manifolds of restricted holonomy are difficult to generate explicitly. Projective superspace is a field-theoretic approach to construct general N= 2 supersymmetric nonlinear sigma-models, and hence to generate new hyperkaehler and quaternionic Kaehler metrics. Intended for a mixed audience consisting of both physicists and mathematicians, these lectures provide a pedagogical introduction to the projective-superspace approach. (topical review)

  2. Lectures on nonlinear sigma-models in projective superspace

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuzenko, Sergei M, E-mail: kuzenko@cyllene.uwa.edu.a [School of Physics M013, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley WA 6009 (Australia)

    2010-11-05

    N= 2 supersymmetry in four spacetime dimensions is intimately related to hyperkaehler and quaternionic Kaehler geometries. On one hand, the target spaces for rigid supersymmetric sigma-models are necessarily hyperkaehler manifolds. On the other hand, when coupled to N= 2 supergravity, the sigma-model target spaces must be quaternionic Kaehler. It is known that such manifolds of restricted holonomy are difficult to generate explicitly. Projective superspace is a field-theoretic approach to construct general N= 2 supersymmetric nonlinear sigma-models, and hence to generate new hyperkaehler and quaternionic Kaehler metrics. Intended for a mixed audience consisting of both physicists and mathematicians, these lectures provide a pedagogical introduction to the projective-superspace approach. (topical review)

  3. Use of Containers to Carry Bulk and Break Bulk Commodities and Their Impact on Gulf Region Ports and International Trade : Research Project Capsule

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    Since their introduction in the 1950s, the use of containers now represents roughly 90% of : world trade. Their acceptance as the common denominator in international shipping has had : profound impacts throughout the shipping industry. More recently,...

  4. Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

    2012-02-01

    Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. City of Austin: Green habitat learning project. A green builder model home project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-01

    The purpose of the Year 14 UCETF project was to design and construct a residential structure that could serve as a demonstration facility, training site, and testing and monitoring laboratory for issues related to the implementation of sustainable building practices and materials. The Model Home Project builds on the previous and existing efforts, partially funded by the UCETF, of the City of Austin Green Builder Program to incorporate sustainable building practices into mainstream building activities. The Green Builder Program uses the term {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} as a synonym for sustainability. In the research and analysis that was completed for our earlier reports in Years 12 and 13, we characterized specific elements that we associate with sustainability and, thus, green building. In general, we refer to a modified life cycle assessment to ascertain if {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building options reflect similar positive cyclical patterns found in nature (i.e. recyclability, recycled content, renewable resources, etc.). We additionally consider economic, human health and synergistic ecological impacts associated with our building choices and characterize the best choices as {open_quotes}green.{close_quotes} Our ultimate goal is to identify and use those {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials and processes that provide well for us now and do not compromise similar benefits for future generations. The original partnership developed for this project shifted during the year from a project stressing advanced (many prototypical) {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building materials and techniques in a research and demonstration context, to off-the-shelf but underutilized {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials in the practical social context of using {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} technologies for low income housing. That project, discussed in this report, is called the Green Habitat Learning Project.

  6. Mesoscale modeling of smoke transport over Central Africa: influences of trade winds, subtropical high, ITCZ and vertical statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z.; Wang, J.; Hyer, E. J.; Ichoku, C. M.

    2012-12-01

    A fully-coupled meteorology-chemistry-aerosol model, Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), is used to simulate the transport of smoke aerosol over the Central Africa during February 2008. Smoke emission used in this study is specified from the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) database derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire products. Model performance is evaluated using MODIS true color images, measured Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from space-borne MODIS (550 nm) and ground-based AERONET (500 nm), and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar data with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) level 1 and 2 products. The simulated smoke transport is in good agreement with the validation data. Analyzing from three smoke events, smoke is constrained in a narrow belt between the Equator and 10°N near the surface, with the interplay of trade winds, subtropical high, and ITCZ. At the 700 hpa level, smoke expands farther meridionally. Topography blocks the smoke transport to the southeast of study area, because of high mountains located near the Great Rift Valley region. The simulation with injection height of 650 m is consistent with CALIOP measurements. The particular phenomenon, aerosol above cloud, is studied statistically from CALIOP observations. The total percentage of aerosol above cloud is about 5%.

  7. Models of Charity Donations and Project Funding in Social Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojciechowski, Adam

    One of the key fundaments of building a society is common interest or shared aims of the group members. This research work is a try to analyze web-based services oriented towards money collection for various social and charity projects. The phenomenon of social founding is worth a closer look at because its success strongly depends on the ability to build an ad-hoc or persistent groups of people sharing their believes and willing to support external institutions or individuals. The paper presents a review of money collection sites, various models of donation and money collection process as well as ways how the projects' results are reported to their founders. There is also a proposal of money collection service, where donators are not charged until total declared help overheads required resources to complete the project. The risk of missing real donations for declared payments, after the collection is closed, can be assessed and minimized by building a social network.

  8. Development of a forecasting model for brucellosis spreading in the Italian cattle trade network aimed to prioritise the field interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savini, L; Candeloro, L; Conte, A; De Massis, F; Giovannini, A

    2017-01-01

    Brucellosis caused by Brucella abortus is an important zoonosis that constitutes a serious hazard to public health. Prevention of human brucellosis depends on the control of the disease in animals. Livestock movement data represent a valuable source of information to understand the pattern of contacts between holdings, which may determine the inter-herds and intra-herd spread of the disease. The manuscript addresses the use of computational epidemic models rooted in the knowledge of cattle trade network to assess the probabilities of brucellosis spread and to design control strategies. Three different spread network-based models were proposed: the DFC (Disease Flow Centrality) model based only on temporal cattle network structure and unrelated to the epidemiological disease parameters; a deterministic SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model; a stochastic SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model in which epidemiological and demographic within-farm aspects were also modelled. Containment strategies based on farms centrality in the cattle network were tested and discussed. All three models started from the identification of the entire sub-network originated from an infected farm, up to the fifth order of contacts. Their performances were based on data collected in Sicily in the framework of the national eradication plan of brucellosis in 2009. Results show that the proposed methods improves the efficacy and efficiency of the tracing activities in comparison to the procedure currently adopted by the veterinary services in the brucellosis control, in Italy. An overall assessment shows that the SIR model is the most suitable for the practical needs of the veterinary services, being the one with the highest sensitivity and the shortest computation time.

  9. Preferential Trade Arrangements and the Pattern of Production and Trade when Inputs are Differentiated

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.F. François (Joseph)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis paper is concerned with rules of origin when intermediate goods are differentiated. An analytical model emphasizes trade patterns and the relative importance of trade in intermediates given trade preferences. Econometric evidence based on intra-OECD trade in motor vehicles and motor

  10. A conceptual model of psychological contracts in construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongjian Ke

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The strategic importance of relationship style contracting is recognised in the construction industry. Both public and private sector clients are stipulating more integrated and collaborative forms of procurement. Despite relationship and integrated contractual arrangement being available for some time, it is clear that construction firms have been slow to adopt them. Hence it is timely to examine how social exchanges, via unwritten agreement and behaviours, are being nurtured in construction projects. This paper adopted the concept of Psychological Contracts (PC to describe unwritten agreement and behaviours. A conceptual model of the PC is developed and validated using the results from a questionnaire survey administered to construction professionals in Australia. The results uncovered the relationships that existed amongst relational conditions and relational benefits, the PC and the partners’ satisfaction. The results show that all the hypotheses in the conceptual model of the PC are supported, suggesting the PC model is important and may have an effect on project performance and relationship quality among contracting parties. A validated model of the PC in construction was then developed based on the correlations among each component. The managerial implications are that past relationships and relationship characteristics should be taken into account in the selection of procurement partners and the promise of future resources, support and tangible relational outcomes are also vital. It is important for contracting parties to pay attention to unwritten agreements (the PC and behaviours when managing construction projects.

  11. Integration, Trade Policy and European Footwear Trade

    OpenAIRE

    Winters, L. Alan

    1992-01-01

    This paper constructs a simulation model of the EC footwear market with which to consider the effects of EC trade policies. It examines the Southern enlargement of the EC, the quotas imposed on Korean and Taiwanese sales - initially in France and Italy and subsequently, in line with the `1992' programme, EC-wide - and the liberalization of imports from Eastern Europe. Import restrictions are shown to be costly - especially those against Eastern Europe.

  12. Interdicting an Adversary’s Economy Viewed As a Trade Sanction Inoperability Input Output Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing YES $4,578,424,000 2 TTL_C10T14: Mining and quarrying YES $53,345,194,000 3 TTL_C15T16: Food products, beverages ...22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave...Wei, Dong, and Sun (2009) use the IIM to study supply chain risk management and mitigation strategies. They use a method called the “ordered

  13. A Model Suggestion to Predict Leverage Ratio for Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özlem Tüz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to the nature, construction is an industry with high uncertainty and risk. Construction industry carries high leverage ratios. Firms with low equities work in big projects through progress payment system, but in this case, even a small negative in the planned cash flows constitute a major risk for the company.The use of leverage, with a small investment to achieve profit targets large-scale, high-profit, but also brings a high risk with it. Investors may lose all or the portion of the money. In this study, monitoring and measuring of the leverage ratio because of the displacement in cash inflows of construction projects which uses high leverage and low cash to do business in the sector is targeted. Cash need because of drifting the cash inflows may be seen due to the model. Work should be done in the early stages of the project with little capital but in the later stages, rapidly growing capital need arises.The values obtained from the model may be used to supply the capital held in the right time by anticipating the risks because of the delay in cashflow of construction projects which uses high leverage ratio.

  14. Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Physics Models For Diagnostics Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotti, Jose M.

    2015-01-01

    The project will use high-fidelity physics models and simulations to simulate real-time operations of cryogenic and systems and calculate the status/health of the systems. The project enables the delivery of system health advisories to ground system operators. The capability will also be used to conduct planning and analysis of cryogenic system operations. This project will develop and implement high-fidelity physics-based modeling techniques tosimulate the real-time operation of cryogenics and other fluids systems and, when compared to thereal-time operation of the actual systems, provide assessment of their state. Physics-modelcalculated measurements (called “pseudo-sensors”) will be compared to the system real-timedata. Comparison results will be utilized to provide systems operators with enhanced monitoring ofsystems' health and status, identify off-nominal trends and diagnose system/component failures.This capability can also be used to conduct planning and analysis of cryogenics and other fluidsystems designs. This capability will be interfaced with the ground operations command andcontrol system as a part of the Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance (AGSM) project to helpassure system availability and mission success. The initial capability will be developed for theLiquid Oxygen (LO2) ground loading systems.

  15. EOQ Model for Delayed Deteriorating Items with Shortages and Trade Credit Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R Sundararajan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a deterministic inventory model for deteriorating items under the condition of permissible delay in payments with constant demand rate is a function of time which differs from before and after deterioration for a single item. Shortages are allowed and completely backlogged which is a function of time. Under these assumptions, this paper develops a retailer's model for obtaining an optimal cycle length and ordering quantity in deteriorating items of an inventory model. Thus, our objective is retailer's cost minimization problem to nd an optimal replenishment policy under various parameters. The convexity of the objective function is derived and the numerical examples are provided to support the proposed model. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to major parameters of the model is included and the implications are discussed.

  16. Project Management Life Cycle Models to Improve Management in High-rise Construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burmistrov, Andrey; Siniavina, Maria; Iliashenko, Oksana

    2018-03-01

    The paper describes a possibility to improve project management in high-rise buildings construction through the use of various Project Management Life Cycle Models (PMLC models) based on traditional and agile project management approaches. Moreover, the paper describes, how the split the whole large-scale project to the "project chain" will create the factor for better manageability of the large-scale buildings project and increase the efficiency of the activities of all participants in such projects.

  17. Project Management Life Cycle Models to Improve Management in High-rise Construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burmistrov Andrey

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes a possibility to improve project management in high-rise buildings construction through the use of various Project Management Life Cycle Models (PMLC models based on traditional and agile project management approaches. Moreover, the paper describes, how the split the whole large-scale project to the "project chain" will create the factor for better manageability of the large-scale buildings project and increase the efficiency of the activities of all participants in such projects.

  18. Project Management in Public Administration. TPM – Total Project Management Maturity Model. The Case of Slovenian Public Administration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordana ŽURGA

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to present the importance of project management for the functioning of public administration, and its contribution to the realization of the developmental goals of the government. For this, integration of strategic management and project management is of vital importance. The methodology used is a combination of literature review, a case study of project management in public administration of the Republic of Slovenia, and development of a maturity model of project management in public administration, with its verifi cation on the case of Slovenia. The main contribution of the study is development of TPM – Total Project Management maturity model for public administration. Upon the TPM maturity model, project management in Slovene public administration is assessed and discussed. Out of fi ve maturity levels, the results for project management in Slovene public administration are: management of projects – level 2 (initiated, management of programs of projects – level 2 (initiated, management of portfolios of projects – level 3 (implemented, organizational support for project management – level 3 (implemented, HRM for project management – level 2 (initiated, and integration of project management and strategic management – level 3 (implemented. General fi ndings and recommendations in this respect are drawn, together with indicated areas for possible further research and investigation.

  19. Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Elizabeth A; Polvani, Lorenzo M; Sobel, Adam H

    2013-09-17

    Superstorm Sandy ravaged the eastern seaboard of the United States, costing a great number of lives and billions of dollars in damage. Whether events like Sandy will become more frequent as anthropogenic greenhouse gases continue to increase remains an open and complex question. Here we consider whether the persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns that steered Sandy onto the coast will become more frequent in the coming decades. Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 multimodel ensemble, we demonstrate that climate models consistently project a decrease in the frequency and persistence of the westward flow that led to Sandy's unprecedented track, implying that future atmospheric conditions are less likely than at present to propel storms westward into the coast.

  20. Project ECHO: A Telementoring Network Model for Continuing Professional Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Sanjeev; Kalishman, Summers G; Thornton, Karla A; Komaromy, Miriam S; Katzman, Joanna G; Struminger, Bruce B; Rayburn, William F

    2017-01-01

    A major challenge with current systems of CME is the inability to translate the explosive growth in health care knowledge into daily practice. Project ECHO (Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes) is a telementoring network designed for continuing professional development (CPD) and improving patient outcomes. The purpose of this article was to describe how the model has complied with recommendations from several authoritative reports about redesigning and enhancing CPD. This model links primary care clinicians through a knowledge network with an interprofessional team of specialists from an academic medical center who provide telementoring and ongoing education enabling community clinicians to treat patients with a variety of complex conditions. Knowledge and skills are shared during weekly condition-specific videoconferences. The model exemplifies learning as described in the seven levels of CPD by Moore (participation, satisfaction, learning, competence, performance, patient, and community health). The model is also aligned with recommendations from four national reports intended to redesign knowledge transfer in improving health care. Efforts in learning sessions focus on information that is relevant to practice, focus on evidence, education methodology, tailoring of recommendations to individual needs and community resources, and interprofessionalism. Project ECHO serves as a telementoring network model of CPD that aligns with current best practice recommendations for CME. This transformative initiative has the potential to serve as a leading model for larger scale CPD, nationally and globally, to enhance access to care, improve quality, and reduce cost.

  1. Economic Time Series Modeling to Determine the Feasibility of Incorporating Drinking Water Treatment in Water Quality Trading

    Science.gov (United States)

    The critical steps required to evaluating the feasiblity of establishing a water quality trading market in a testbed watershed is described. Focus is given toward describing the problem of thin markets as a specifi barrier to successful trading. Economic theory for considering an...

  2. Radioactive waste management. International projects on biosphere modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carboneras, P.; Cancio, D.

    1993-01-01

    The paper presents a general overview and discussion on the state of art concerning the biospheric transfer and accumulation of contaminants. A special emphasis is given to the progress achieved in the field of radioactive contaminants and particularly to those implied in radioactive waste disposal. The objectives and advances of the international projects BIOMOVS and VAMP on validation of model predictions are also described. (Author)

  3. Projected shell model description of N = 114 superdeformed isotone nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, R S; Chen, L M; Chou, C H

    2006-01-01

    A systematic description of the yrast superdeformed (SD) bands in N 114, Z = 80-84 isotone nuclei using the projected shell model is presented. The calculated γ-ray energies, moment of inertia and M1 transitions are compared with the data for which spin is assigned. Excellent agreement with the available data for all isotones is obtained. The calculated electromagnetic properties provide a microscopic understanding of those measured nuclei. Some predictions in superdeformed nuclei are also discussed

  4. A trade-off analysis design tool. Aircraft interior noise-motion/passenger satisfaction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, I. D.

    1977-01-01

    A design tool was developed to enhance aircraft passenger satisfaction. The effect of aircraft interior motion and noise on passenger comfort and satisfaction was modelled. Effects of individual aircraft noise sources were accounted for, and the impact of noise on passenger activities and noise levels to safeguard passenger hearing were investigated. The motion noise effect models provide a means for tradeoff analyses between noise and motion variables, and also provide a framework for optimizing noise reduction among noise sources. Data for the models were collected onboard commercial aircraft flights and specially scheduled tests.

  5. Expanding Options. A Model to Attract Secondary Students into Nontraditional Vocational Programs. For Emphasis in: Building Trades, Electronics, Health Services, Machine Shop, Welding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Good, James D.; DeVore, Mary Ann

    This model has been designed for use by Missouri secondary schools in attracting females and males into nontraditional occupational programs. The research-based strategies are intended for implementation in the following areas: attracting females into building trades, electronics, machine shop, and welding; and males into secondary health…

  6. Atomic Data and Modelling for Fusion: the ADAS Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Summers, H. P.; O'Mullane, M. G.

    2011-01-01

    The paper is an update on the Atomic Data and Analysis Structure, ADAS, since ICAM-DATA06 and a forward look to its evolution in the next five years. ADAS is an international project supporting principally magnetic confinement fusion research. It has participant laboratories throughout the world, including ITER and all its partner countries. In parallel with ADAS, the ADAS-EU Project provides enhanced support for fusion research at Associated Laboratories and Universities in Europe and ITER. OPEN-ADAS, sponsored jointly by the ADAS Project and IAEA, is the mechanism for open access to principal ADAS atomic data classes and facilitating software for their use. EXTENDED-ADAS comprises a variety of special, integrated application software, beyond the purely atomic bounds of ADAS, tuned closely to specific diagnostic analyses and plasma models.The current scientific content and scope of these various ADAS and ADAS related activities are briefly reviewed. These span a number of themes including heavy element spectroscopy and models, charge exchange spectroscopy, beam emission spectroscopy and special features which provide a broad baseline of atomic modelling and support. Emphasis will be placed on 'lifting the fundamental data baseline'--a principal ADAS task for the next few years. This will include discussion of ADAS and ADAS-EU coordinated and shared activities and some of the methods being exploited.

  7. Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Poverty in Senegal: a Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Nabil Annabi; Fatou Cissé; John Cockburn; Bernard Decaluwé

    2005-01-01

    Much current debate focuses on the role of growth in alleviating poverty. However, the majority of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models used in poverty and inequality analysis are static in nature. The inability of this kind of model to account for growth (accumulation) effects makes them inadequate for long run analysis of the poverty and inequality impacts of economic policies. They exclude accumulation effects and do not allow the study of the transition path of the economy where sh...

  8. System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crookes, D J; Blignaut, J N; de Wit, M P; Esler, K J; Le Maitre, D C; Milton, S J; Mitchell, S A; Cloete, J; de Abreu, P; Fourie nee Vlok, H; Gull, K; Marx, D; Mugido, W; Ndhlovu, T; Nowell, M; Pauw, M; Rebelo, A

    2013-05-15

    Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Mathematical approaches for complexity/predictivity trade-offs in complex system models : LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldsby, Michael E.; Mayo, Jackson R.; Bhattacharyya, Arnab (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA); Armstrong, Robert C.; Vanderveen, Keith

    2008-09-01

    The goal of this research was to examine foundational methods, both computational and theoretical, that can improve the veracity of entity-based complex system models and increase confidence in their predictions for emergent behavior. The strategy was to seek insight and guidance from simplified yet realistic models, such as cellular automata and Boolean networks, whose properties can be generalized to production entity-based simulations. We have explored the usefulness of renormalization-group methods for finding reduced models of such idealized complex systems. We have prototyped representative models that are both tractable and relevant to Sandia mission applications, and quantified the effect of computational renormalization on the predictive accuracy of these models, finding good predictivity from renormalized versions of cellular automata and Boolean networks. Furthermore, we have theoretically analyzed the robustness properties of certain Boolean networks, relevant for characterizing organic behavior, and obtained precise mathematical constraints on systems that are robust to failures. In combination, our results provide important guidance for more rigorous construction of entity-based models, which currently are often devised in an ad-hoc manner. Our results can also help in designing complex systems with the goal of predictable behavior, e.g., for cybersecurity.

  10. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database (Version 1.3)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.L.

    1991-11-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). The SWPM system provides a modeling and analysis environment that supports decisions in the process of evaluating various solid waste management alternatives. This document, one of a series describing the SWPM system, contains detailed information regarding the software and data structures utilized in developing the SWPM Version 1.3 Database. This document is intended for use by experienced database specialists and supports database maintenance, utility development, and database enhancement

  11. Globalization and world trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; Joseph Buongiorno

    2007-01-01

    This chapter discusses economic globalization and world trade in relation to forest sector modeling for the US/North American region. It discusses drivers of economic globalization and related structural changes in US forest product markets, including currency exchange rates and differences in manufacturing costs that have contributed to the displacement of global...

  12. NOx trade. Case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jantzen, J.

    2002-01-01

    Some of the questions with respect to the trade of nitrogen oxides that businesses in the Netherlands have to deal with are dealt with: should a business buy or sell rights for NOx emission; which measures must be taken to reduce NOx emission; how much must be invested; and how to deal with uncertainties with regard to prices. Simulations were carried out with the MOSES model to find the answers to those questions. Results of some case studies are presented, focusing on the chemical sector in the Netherlands. Finally, the financial (dis)advantages of NOx trade and the related uncertainties for a single enterprise are discussed [nl

  13. The Doha Trade Round and Mozambique

    OpenAIRE

    Arndt, Channing

    2005-01-01

    This paper considers the potential implications of the Doha Development Agenda, as well as other trade liberalization scenarios, for Mozambique. An applied general equilibrium model, which accounts for high marketing margins and home consumption in the Mozambique economy, is linked to results from the GTAP model of global trade. In addition, a microsimulation module is used to consider the subsequent implications of trade liberalization for poverty. The implications of trade liberalization, p...

  14. A River Model Intercomparison Project in Preparation for SWOT

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, C. H.; Andreadis, K.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Beighley, E.; Boone, A. A.; Yamazaki, D.; Paiva, R. C. D.; Fleischmann, A. S.; Collischonn, W.; Fisher, C. K.; Kim, H.; Biancamaria, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is currently scheduled to launch at the beginning of next decade. SWOT is expected to retrieve unprecedented measurements of water extent, elevation, and slope in the largest terrestrial water bodies. Such potential transformative information motivates the investigation of our ability to ingest the associated data into continental-scale models of terrestrial hydrology. In preparation for the expected SWOT observations, an inter-comparison of continental-scale river models is being performed. This comparison experiment focuses on four of the world's largest river basins: the Amazon, the Mississippi, the Niger, and the Saint-Lawrence. This ongoing project focuses on two main research questions: 1) How can we best prepare for the expected SWOT continental to global measurements before SWOT even flies?, and 2) What is the added value of including SWOT terrestrial measurements into global hydro models for enhancing our understanding of the terrestrial water cycle and the climate system? We present here the results of the second year of this project which now includes simulations from six numerical models of rivers over the Mississippi and sheds light on the implications of various modeling choices on simulation quality as well as on the potential impact of SWOT observations.

  15. An Information-Based Trade Off between Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Portfolio Investment

    OpenAIRE

    Itay Goldstein; Assaf Razin

    2005-01-01

    The paper develops a model of foreign direct investments (FDI) and foreign portfolio investments (FPI).The model describes an information-based trade off between direct investments and portfolio investments. Direct investors are more informed about the fundamentals of their projects. This information enables them to manage their projects more efficiently. However, it also creates an asymmetric-information problem in case they need to sell their projects prematurely, and reduces the price they...

  16. A Modelling Approach for Integrated Planning of Port Capacity- Trade-Offs in Rotterdam Investment Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sander Dekker

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a modelling approach for planning ofport capacity. The approach integrates port commercial andpublic interests. It further incorporates route competition andautonomous demand growth. It is applied to port expansion,which can be considered as a strategy for an individual port todeal with route competition. The basis for solving this planningproblem comprises an analysis of port demand and supply in apartial equilibrium model. With such an approach, the reactionof a single port on the change in a transport network comprisingalternative routes to a hinterland destination can be simulated.To establish the optimal expansion strategy, port expansion iscombined with congestion pricing. This is used for the simultaneousdetermination of 1 optimal expansion size, and 2 investmentrecovery period. The modelling approach will be appliedto Rotterdam port focusing on port expansion by means ofland reclamation. The scenmio of the entry of a new competingroute via the Italian port Gioia Tauro is used to address sometrade-offs in Rotterdam investment planning.

  17. Evaluation of Material Models within LS-DYNA(Registered TradeMark) for a Kevlar/Epoxy Composite Honeycomb

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polanco, Michael A.; Kellas, Sotiris; Jackson, Karen

    2009-01-01

    The performance of material models to simulate a novel composite honeycomb Deployable Energy Absorber (DEA) was evaluated using the nonlinear explicit dynamic finite element code LS-DYNA(Registered TradeMark). Prototypes of the DEA concept were manufactured using a Kevlar/Epoxy composite material in which the fibers are oriented at +/-45 degrees with respect to the loading axis. The development of the DEA has included laboratory tests at subcomponent and component levels such as three-point bend testing of single hexagonal cells, dynamic crush testing of single multi-cell components, and impact testing of a full-scale fuselage section fitted with a system of DEA components onto multi-terrain environments. Due to the thin nature of the cell walls, the DEA was modeled using shell elements. In an attempt to simulate the dynamic response of the DEA, it was first represented using *MAT_LAMINATED_COMPOSITE_FABRIC, or *MAT_58, in LS-DYNA. Values for each parameter within the material model were generated such that an in-plane isotropic configuration for the DEA material was assumed. Analytical predictions showed that the load-deflection behavior of a single-cell during three-point bending was within the range of test data, but predicted the DEA crush response to be very stiff. In addition, a *MAT_PIECEWISE_LINEAR_PLASTICITY, or *MAT_24, material model in LS-DYNA was developed, which represented the Kevlar/Epoxy composite as an isotropic elastic-plastic material with input from +/-45 degrees tensile coupon data. The predicted crush response matched that of the test and localized folding patterns of the DEA were captured under compression, but the model failed to predict the single-cell three-point bending response.

  18. US Food Security and Climate Change: Mid-Century Projections of Commodity Crop Production by the IMPACT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takle, E. S.; Gustafson, D. I.; Beachy, R.; Nelson, G. C.; Mason-D'Croz, D.; Palazzo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. The lack of additional arable land and availability of freshwater have long been constraints on agriculture. Changes in trends of weather conditions that challenge physiological limits of crops, as projected by global climate models, are expected to exacerbate the global food challenge toward the middle of the 21st century. These climate- and constraint-driven crop production challenges are interconnected within a complex global economy, where diverse factors add to price volatility and food scarcity. We use the DSSAT crop modeling suite, together with mid-century projections of four AR4 global models, as input to the International Food Policy Research Institute IMPACT model to project the impact of climate change on food security through the year 2050 for internationally traded crops. IMPACT is an iterative model that responds to endogenous and exogenous drivers to dynamically solve for the world prices that ensure global supply equals global demand. The modeling methodology reconciles the limited spatial resolution of macro-level economic models that operate through equilibrium-driven relationships at a national level with detailed models of biophysical processes at high spatial resolution. The analysis presented here suggests that climate change in the first half of the 21st century does not represent a near-term threat to food security in the US due to the availability of adaptation strategies (e.g., loss of current growing regions is balanced by gain of new growing regions). However, as climate continues to trend away from 20th century norms current adaptation measures will not be sufficient to enable agriculture to meet growing food demand. Climate scenarios from higher-level carbon emissions exacerbate the food shortfall, although uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly precipitation) is a limitation to impact

  19. Contractual Efficiency of PPP Infrastructure Projects: An Incomplete Contract Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Shi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses the contractual efficiency of public-private partnership (PPP infrastructure projects, with a focus on two financial aspects: the nonrecourse principal and incompleteness of debt contracts. The nonrecourse principal releases the sponsoring companies from the debt contract when the special purpose vehicle (SPV established by the sponsoring companies falls into default. Consequently, all obligations under the debt contract are limited to the liability of the SPV following its default. Because the debt contract is incomplete, a renegotiation of an additional loan between the bank and the SPV might occur to enable project continuation or liquidation, which in turn influences the SPV’s ex ante strategies (moral hazard. Considering these two financial features of PPP infrastructure projects, this study develops an incomplete contract model to investigate how the renegotiation triggers ex ante moral hazard and ex post inefficient liquidation. We derive equilibrium strategies under service fees endogenously determined via bidding and examine the effect of equilibrium strategies on contractual efficiency. Finally, we propose an optimal combination of a performance guarantee, the government’s termination right, and a service fee to improve the contractual efficiency of PPP infrastructure projects.

  20. Identifying optimum performance trade-offs using a cognitively bounded rational analysis model of discretionary task interleaving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Christian P; Brumby, Duncan P; Dowell, John; Chater, Nick; Howes, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    We report the results of a dual-task study in which participants performed a tracking and typing task under various experimental conditions. An objective payoff function was used to provide explicit feedback on how participants should trade off performance between the tasks. Results show that participants' dual-task interleaving strategy was sensitive to changes in the difficulty of the tracking task and resulted in differences in overall task performance. To test the hypothesis that people select strategies that maximize payoff, a Cognitively Bounded Rational Analysis model was developed. This analysis evaluated a variety of dual-task interleaving strategies to identify the optimal strategy for maximizing payoff in each condition. The model predicts that the region of optimum performance is different between experimental conditions. The correspondence between human data and the prediction of the optimal strategy is found to be remarkably high across a number of performance measures. This suggests that participants were honing their behavior to maximize payoff. Limitations are discussed. Copyright © 2011 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  1. A Buffer Stock Model to Ensure Price Stabilization and Availability of Seasonal Staple Food under Free Trade Considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahyudi Sutopo

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The price volatility and scarcity have been became a great problem in the distribution system of seasonal staple food produced by agro industry. It has salient supply disparity during the harvest and planting season. This condition could cause disadvantages to the stakeholders such as producer, wholesaler, consumer, and government. This paper proposes a buffer stock model under free trade considerations to substitute quantitative restrictions and tariffs by indirect market intervention instrument. The instrument was developed through buffer stock scheme in accordance with warehouse receipt system (WRS and collateral management system. The public service institution for staple food buffer stock (BLUPP is proposed as wholesaler’s competitor with main responsibility to ensure price stabilization and availability of staple food. Multi criteria decision making is formulated as single objective a mixed integer non linear programming (MINLP. The result shows that the proposed model can be applied to solve the distribution problem and can give more promising outcome than its counterpart, the direct market intervention instrument.

  2. Modelling the trade off between period lenght and stages in a period batch control system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Riezebos, J.

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to propose a nonparametric interest rate term structure model and investigate its implications on term structure dynamics and prices of interest rate derivative securities. The nonparametric spot interest rate process is estimated from the observed short-term interest

  3. Boundedly rational learning and heterogeneous trading strategies with hybrid neuro-fuzzy models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekiros, S.D.

    2009-01-01

    The present study deals with heterogeneous learning rules in speculative markets where heuristic strategies reflect the rules-of-thumb of boundedly rational investors. The major challenge for "chartists" is the development of new models that would enhance forecasting ability particularly for time

  4. Sensitivity Analysis of an Agent-Based Model of Culture's Consequences for Trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burgers, S.L.G.E.; Jonker, C.M.; Hofstede, G.J.; Verwaart, D.

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes the analysis of an agent-based model’s sensitivity to changes in parameters that describe the agents’ cultural background, relational parameters, and parameters of the decision functions. As agent-based models may be very sensitive to small changes in parameter values, it is of

  5. Quantifying private benefits of control from a structural model of block trades

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albuquerque, R.; Schroth, E.

    2009-01-01

    We study the determinants of private benefits of control in negotiated block transactions. We estimate the block pricing model in Burkart, Gromb, and Panunzi (2000) explicitly accounting for both block premia and block discounts in the data. The evidence suggests that the occurrence of a block

  6. CSDFa: a model for exploiting the trade-off between data and pipeline parallelism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koek, Peter; Geuns, S.J.; Hausmans, J.P.H.M.; Corporaal, Henk; Bekooij, Marco Jan Gerrit

    2016-01-01

    Real-time stream processing applications, such as SDR applications, are often executed concurrently on multiprocessor systems. A unified data flow model and analysis method have been proposed that can be used to simultaneously determine the amount of pipeline and coarse-grained data parallelism

  7. Revenue Risk Modelling and Assessment on BOT Highway Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novianti, T.; Setyawan, H. Y.

    2018-01-01

    The infrastructure project which is considered as a public-private partnership approach under BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) arrangement, such as a highway, is risky. Therefore, assessment on risk factors is essential as the project have a concession period and is influenced by macroeconomic factors and consensus period. In this study, pre-construction risks of a highway were examined by using a Delphi method to create a space for offline expert discussions; a fault tree analysis to map intuition of experts and to create a model from the underlying risk events; a fuzzy logic to interpret the linguistic data of risk models. The loss of revenue for risk tariff, traffic volume, force majeure, and income were then measured. The results showed that the loss of revenue caused by the risk tariff was 10.5% of the normal total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the risk of traffic volume was 21.0% of total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the force majeure was 12.2% of the normal income. The loss of income caused by the non-revenue events was 6.9% of the normal revenue. It was also found that the volume of traffic was the major risk of a highway project because it related to customer preferences.

  8. Projective limits of state spaces III. Toy-models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanéry, Suzanne; Thiemann, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    In this series of papers, we investigate the projective framework initiated by Kijowski (1977) and Okołów (2009, 2014, 2013) [1,2], which describes the states of a quantum theory as projective families of density matrices. A short reading guide to the series can be found in Lanéry (2016). A strategy to implement the dynamics in this formalism was presented in our first paper Lanéry and Thiemann (2017) (see also Lanéry, 2016, section 4), which we now test in two simple toy-models. The first one is a very basic linear model, meant as an illustration of the general procedure, and we will only discuss it at the classical level. In the second one, we reformulate the Schrödinger equation, treated as a classical field theory, within this projective framework, and proceed to its (non-relativistic) second quantization. We are then able to reproduce the physical content of the usual Fock quantization.

  9. Additive versus Multiplicative Trade Costs and the Gains from Trade Liberalizations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Allan

    2014-01-01

    This paper addresses welfare e¤ects from trade liberalization in a Melitz (2003) heterogeneous-…rms trade model including the empirically important per-unit (i.e. additive) trade costs in addition to the conventional iceberg (i.e. multiplicative) and …xed trade costs. The novel contribution...... of the pa- per is the result that the welfare gain for a given increase in trade openness is higher for reductions in per-unit (additive) trade costs than for reductions in iceberg (multiplicative) trade costs. The ranking derives from di¤erences in intra-industry reallocations and in particular from...

  10. Innovations in projecting emissions for air quality modeling ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air quality modeling is used in setting air quality standards and in evaluating their costs and benefits. Historically, modeling applications have projected emissions and the resulting air quality only 5 to 10 years into the future. Recognition that the choice of air quality management strategy has climate change implications is encouraging longer modeling time horizons. However, for multi-decadal time horizons, many questions about future conditions arise. For example, will current population, economic, and land use trends continue, or will we see shifts that may alter the spatial and temporal pattern of emissions? Similarly, will technologies such as building-integrated solar photovoltaics, battery storage, electric vehicles, and CO2 capture emerge as disruptive technologies - shifting how we produce and use energy - or will these technologies achieve only niche markets and have little impact? These are some of the questions that are being evaluated by researchers within the U.S. EPA’s Office of Research and Development. In this presentation, Dr. Loughlin will describe a range of analytical approaches that are being explored. These include: (i) the development of alternative scenarios of the future that can be used to evaluate candidate management strategies over wide-ranging conditions, (ii) the application of energy system models to project emissions decades into the future and to assess the environmental implications of new technologies, (iii) and methodo

  11. Interprovincial Generation Rights Trading Model Based on Blockchain Technology%基于区块链技术的跨省发电权交易模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    施泉生; 刘坤; 温蜜

    2017-01-01

    区块链技术自问世以来,已被运用到越来越多的领域.我国的发电权交易属于电力市场交易的一部分.近年来针对发电权交易的研究也在逐步深入.将区块链技术应用于发电权交易中,可以解决发电权交易双方的信任问题,增强交易信息的安全性,提高发电权交易的效率.简述了区块链技术应用于发电权交易的具体流程,分析了智能合约的执行情况;同时构建了一种跨省发电权交易模型,在考虑经济效益与节能降耗的同时,针对跨省发电权交易中输电与输煤成本差异对模型进行修正.最后利用算例对该文所构建的交易模型进行验证,比较了3种发电权交易模型的综合效益,得出所提出模型的优点,并分析了运用智能合约实现价值转移的结果.%The blockchain technology has been used in wild fields since it emerged.As a part of electricity market, the generation right trading has been comprehensively investigated in China in recent years.Using blockchain technology into generation right trading can solve the trust problem within generation right transaction, and enhance trading information security as well as transaction efficiency.This paper explains the procedure of blockchain technology application in generation right trading and analyses the executive condition of smart contact.Meanwhile, it constructs an interprovincial generation right trading model, which takes economic benefits and cost-saving into consideration, and proposes the correction model based on the difference between power transmission and coal transportation cost in interprovincial generation right trading.Finally, this paper verifies the proposed model through examples, compares the comprehensive benefits of three generation right trading models, obtains the advantages of the proposed model and analyzes the the result of smart contact application in value transfer.

  12. Cultural Effects of Trade Liberalization

    OpenAIRE

    Steven M. Suranovic; Robert Winthrop

    2005-01-01

    We incorporate culture into a standard trade model in two distinct ways. In the ¡°cultural affinity from work¡± model, workers receive a non- pecuniary cultural benefit from work in a particular industry. In the ¡°cultural externality¡± model, consumers of a product receive utility from other consumer¡¯s consumption of a domestic good. We show that resistance to change due to cultural concerns can reduce the national benefits from trade liberalization. Complete movements to free trade will ha...

  13. Hydrology-oriented forest management trade-offs. A modeling framework coupling field data, simulation results and Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Prats, Alberto; González-Sanchis, María; Del Campo, Antonio D; Lull, Cristina

    2018-05-23

    Hydrology-oriented forest management sets water as key factor of the forest management for adaptation due to water is the most limiting factor in the Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The aim of this study was to apply Bayesian Network modeling to assess potential indirect effects and trade-offs when hydrology-oriented forest management is applied to a real Mediterranean forest ecosystem. Water, carbon and nitrogen cycles, and forest fire risk were included in the modeling framework. Field data from experimental plots were employed to calibrate and validate the mechanistic Biome-BGCMuSo model that simulates the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere. Many other 50-year long scenarios with different conditions to the ones measured in the field experiment were simulated and the outcomes employed to build the Bayesian Network in a linked chain of models. Hydrology-oriented forest management was very positive insofar as more water was made available to the stand because of an interception reduction. This resource was made available to the stand, which increased the evapotranspiration and its components, the soil water content and a slightly increase of deep percolation. Conversely, Stemflow was drastically reduced. No effect was observed on Runof due to the thinning treatment. The soil organic carbon content was also increased which in turn caused a greater respiration. The long-term effect of the thinning treatment on the LAI was very positive. This was undoubtedly due to the increased vigor generated by the greater availability of water and nutrients for the stand and the reduction of competence between trees. This greater activity resulted in an increase in GPP and vegetation carbon, and therefore, we would expect a higher carbon sequestration. It is worth emphasizing that this extra amount of water and nutrients was taken up by the stand and did not entail any loss of nutrients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All

  14. Impact of India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: A cross-country analysis using applied general equilibrium modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Chandrima Sikdar; Biswajit Nag

    2011-01-01

    The India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) came into effect on 1 January 2010 with regard to Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. For the remaining ASEAN members it will come into force after they have completed their internal requirements. With this background, the present study analyses the impact of this free trade agreement (FTA) on India and the ASEAN members. The study also attempted to analyse the long-term effects of the FTA on India. It is argued that after full trade liberalization, ...

  15. Identifying the determinants of South Africa’s extensive and intensive trade margins: A gravity model approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marianne Matthee

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The significance of the paper is twofold. Firstly, it adds to the small but growing body of literature focusing on the decomposition of South Africa’s export growth. Secondly, it identifies the determinants of the intensive and extensive margins of South Africa’s exports – a topic that (as far as the authors are concerned has not been explored before. Aim: This paper aims to investigate a wide range of market access determinants that affect South Africa’s export growth along the intensive and extensive margins. Setting: Export diversification has been identified as one of the critical pillars of South Africa’s much-hoped-for economic revival. Although recent years have seen the country’s export product mix evolving, there is still insufficient diversification into new markets with high value-added products. This is putting a damper on export performance as a whole and, in turn, hindering South Africa’s economic growth. Methods: A Heckman selection gravity model is applied using highly disaggregated data. The first stage of the process revealed the factors affecting the probability of South Africa exporting to a particular destination (extensive margin. The second stage, which modelled trade flows, revealed the variables that affect export volumes (intensive margin. Results: The results showed that South Africa’s export product mix is relatively varied, but the number of export markets is limited. In terms of the extensive margin (or the probability of exporting, economic variables such as the importing country’s GDP and population have a positive impact on firms’ decision to export. Other factors affecting the extensive margin are distance to the market (negative impact, cultural or language fit (positive impact, presence of a South African embassy abroad (positive impact, existing free trade agreement with Southern African Development Community (positive impact and trade regulations and costs (negative

  16. Trade Liberalization and Organizational Change

    OpenAIRE

    Paola Conconi; Patrick Legros; Andrew F. Newman

    2008-01-01

    We embed a simple incomplete-contracts model of organization design in a standard two-country perfectly-competitive trade model to examine how the liberalization of product and factor markets affects the ownership structure of firms. In our model, managers decide whether or not to integrate their firms, trading off the pecuniary benefits of coordinating production decisions with the private benefits of operating in their preferred ways. The price of output is a crucial determinant of this cho...

  17. Game theoretic analysis for carbon emission permits trading among multiple world regions with an optimizing global energy model; Saitekikagata sekai energy model ni motozuku tachiikikan CO2 haishutsu kyokasho torihiki no game ronteki bunseki

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akimoto, K.; Matsunaga, A.; Fujii, Y. [Yokohama National University, Yokohama (Japan); Yamaji, K. [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan)

    1998-10-01

    Carbon emissions which would cause global warming were agreed to be constrained at COP3 in Kyoto. In addition, carton emission permits trading was also approved to be introduced. The emission permits trading is expected to achieve efficient carbon emission reduction, equalizing the marginal costs of the emission reduction for the participating countries. In other words, the permits trading allows participants to reduce emissions where it is least expensive to do so. However, the inadequate introduction of the trading systems may impose unfairly greater burden on some countries, and therefore careful evaluation of the system would be indispensable for its implementation. In this paper, we attempt to analyze the emission permits trading. using the theory of cooperative games with a global energy model of optimization type. We assumed that seven world regions as players participate the permits trading system under the condition of the emission reduction target presented at COP3 and so on, and show the nucleolus of the grand coalition games, and the computational results of primary energy supplies and CO2 shadow prices. The insights of this research indicate that in order to stabilize the grand coalition, a noticeable amount of additional transfer of money would be needed besides the payments associated with the emission permits trading. 10 refs., 7 figs., 5 tabs.

  18. Modelling regulating ecosystem services trade-offs across landscape scenarios in Trebonsko Wetlands Biosphere Reserve, Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Harmáčková, Veronika Zuzana; Vačkář, David

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 295, SI (2015), s. 207-215 ISSN 0304-3800 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA TA ČR TD010026 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate regulation * water quality regulation * InVEST models * decision support * social-ecological systems Subject RIV: DO - Wilderness Conservation Impact factor: 2.275, year: 2015

  19. Progress report for project modeling Arctic barrier island-lagoon system response to projected Arctic warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li H.; Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Storlazzi, Curt; B.M. Jones,

    2012-01-01

    Changes in Arctic coastal ecosystems in response to global warming may be some of the most severe on the planet. A better understanding and analysis of the rates at which these changes are expected to occur over the coming decades is crucial in order to delineate high-priority areas that are likely to be affected by climate changes. In this study we investigate the likelihood of changes to habitat-supporting barrier island – lagoon systems in response to projected changes in atmospheric and oceanographic forcing associated with Arctic warming. To better understand the relative importance of processes responsible for the current and future coastal landscape, key parameters related to increasing arctic temperatures are investigated and used to establish boundary conditions for models that simulate barrier island migration and inundation of deltaic deposits and low-lying tundra. The modeling effort investigates the dominance and relative importance of physical processes shaping the modern Arctic coastline as well as decadal responses due to projected conditions out to the year 2100.

  20. Multimode model for projective photon-counting measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tualle-Brouri, Rosa; Ourjoumtsev, Alexei; Dantan, Aurelien; Grangier, Philippe; Wubs, Martijn; Soerensen, Anders S.

    2009-01-01

    We present a general model to account for the multimode nature of the quantum electromagnetic field in projective photon-counting measurements. We focus on photon-subtraction experiments, where non-Gaussian states are produced conditionally. These are useful states for continuous-variable quantum-information processing. We present a general method called mode reduction that reduces the multimode model to an effective two-mode problem. We apply this method to a multimode model describing broadband parametric down-conversion, thereby improving the analysis of existing experimental results. The main improvement is that spatial and frequency filters before the photon detector are taken into account explicitly. We find excellent agreement with previously published experimental results, using fewer free parameters than before, and discuss the implications of our analysis for the optimized production of states with negative Wigner functions.