Sample records for project future effects
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cabe, Jim; Elliott, Mike
2010-09-30
This report summarizes the comprehensive siting, permitting, engineering, design, and costing activities completed by the FutureGen Industrial Alliance, the Department of Energy, and associated supporting subcontractors to develop a first of a kind near zero emissions integrated gasification combined cycle power plant and carbon capture and storage project (IGCC-CCS). With the goal to design, build, and reliably operate the first IGCC-CCS facility, FutureGen would have been the lowest emitting pulverized coal power plant in the world, while providing a timely and relevant basis for coal combustion power plants deploying carbon capture in the future. The content of this report summarizes key findings and results of applicable project evaluations; modeling, design, and engineering assessments; cost estimate reports; and schedule and risk mitigation from initiation of the FutureGen project through final flow sheet analyses including capital and operating reports completed under DOE award DE-FE0000587. This project report necessarily builds upon previously completed siting, design, and development work executed under DOE award DE-FC26- 06NT4207 which included the siting process; environmental permitting, compliance, and mitigation under the National Environmental Policy Act; and development of conceptual and design basis documentation for the FutureGen plant. For completeness, the report includes as attachments the siting and design basis documents, as well as the source documentation for the following: • Site evaluation and selection process and environmental characterization • Underground Injection Control (UIC) Permit Application including well design and subsurface modeling • FutureGen IGCC-CCS Design Basis Document • Process evaluations and technology selection via Illinois Clean Coal Review Board Technical Report • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance for slurry-fed gasifier configuration • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance
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The Southern Forest Futures Project: technical report
David N. Wear; John G. Greis
2013-01-01
Please visit the Southern Forest Futures Project website for more information.The Southern Forest Futures Project provides a science-based âfuturingâ analysis of the forests of the 13 States of the Southeastern United States. With findings...
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The Southern Forest Futures Project: summary report
David N. Wear; John G. Greis
2012-01-01
The Southern Forest Futures Project provides a science-based âfuturingâ analysis of the forests of the 13 States of the Southeastern United States. With findings organized in a set of scenarios and using a combination of computer models and science synthesis, the authors of the Southern Forest Futures Project examine a variety of possible futures that could shape...
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Preston, Samuel H.; Stokes, Andrew; Mehta, Neil K.; Cao, Bochen
2013-01-01
We estimate the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010?2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these estimates. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts are age 25. To these distributions, we apply death rates by current and ...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anett Kretschmer-Trendowicz
Full Text Available The present study is the first to investigate the benefits of episodic future thinking (EFT at encoding on prospective memory (PM in preschool (age: M = 66.34 months, SD = 3.28 and primary school children (age: M = 88.36 months, SD = 3.12. A second aim was to examine if self-projection influences the possible effects of EFT instructions. PM was assessed using a standard PM paradigm in children with a picture-naming task as the ongoing activity in which the PM task was embedded. Further, two first- and two second-order ToM tasks were administered as indicator of children's self-projection abilities. Forty-one preschoolers and 39 school-aged children were recruited. Half of the participants in each age group were instructed to use EFT as a strategy to encode the PM task, while the others received standard PM instructions. Results revealed a significant age effect, with school-aged children significantly outperforming preschoolers and a significant effect of encoding condition with overall better performance when receiving EFT instructions compared to the standard encoding condition. Even though the interaction between age group and encoding condition was not significant, planned comparisons revealed first evidence that compared to the younger age group, older children's PM benefitted more from EFT instructions during intention encoding. Moreover, results showed that although self-projection had a significant impact on PM performance, it did not influence the effects of EFT instructions. Overall, results indicate that children can use EFT encoding strategies to improve their PM performance once EFT abilities are sufficiently developed. Further, they provide first evidence that in addition to executive functions, which have already been shown to influence the development of PM across childhood, self-projection seems to be another key mechanism underlying this development.
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Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko
2018-01-01
This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to
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Nakagawa, Y.; Kawahara, S.; Araki, F.; Matsuoka, D.; Ishikawa, Y.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Okada, Y.; Kawazoe, S.; Watanabe, S.; Ishii, M.; Mizuta, R.; Murata, A.; Kawase, H.
2017-12-01
Analyses of large ensemble data are quite useful in order to produce probabilistic effect projection of climate change. Ensemble data of "+2K future climate simulations" are currently produced by Japanese national project "Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT)" as a part of a database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF; Mizuta et al. 2016) produced by Program for Risk Information on Climate Change. Those data consist of global warming simulations and regional downscaling simulations. Considering that those data volumes are too large (a few petabyte) to download to a local computer of users, a user-friendly system is required to search and download data which satisfy requests of the users. We develop "a database system for near-future climate change projections" for providing functions to find necessary data for the users under SI-CAT. The database system for near-future climate change projections mainly consists of a relational database, a data download function and user interface. The relational database using PostgreSQL is a key function among them. Temporally and spatially compressed data are registered on the relational database. As a first step, we develop the relational database for precipitation, temperature and track data of typhoon according to requests by SI-CAT members. The data download function using Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) provides a function to download temporally and spatially extracted data based on search results obtained by the relational database. We also develop the web-based user interface for using the relational database and the data download function. A prototype of the database system for near-future climate change projections are currently in operational test on our local server. The database system for near-future climate change projections will be released on Data Integration and Analysis System Program (DIAS) in fiscal year 2017
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Current status of RCA projects and strategies for future implementation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Kyoung Pyo; Lee, Jeong Kong
1998-12-01
This report is intended to provide basic overall information about ways to promote technical cooperation within the framework of RCA to accelerate and coordinate cooperative activities in nuclear science and technology in Asia and the Pacific region through a thorough review on the current status and through suggesting future implementation strategies. The contents of this report include an overall introduction of RCA, guidelines and operating rules for RCA programmes, current status and future plans for RCA projects as well as the RCA vision for the next 25 years. By reviewing the current status and future implementation strategies for RCA projects, it will help to set up a national nuclear policy aimed at seeking maximum benefits from participation in RCA projects and to implement programmes for nuclear cooperation with Asian-Pacific countries. It is expected that as a lead country for the energy sector, which is one of five thematic areas for the year 1999 - 2000 cycle programmes, Korea will continue to make significant contributions towards the implementation of RCA programmes in the future. With this report, we plan to keep up with future developments as well as implement an effective cooperation with the countries in the region so that the opinion of Korea, one of the nuclear advanced countries in the region, can be fully reflected in the establishment of future plans for RCA programmes. (author). 3 refs., 5 tabs., 1 fig
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Space Projects: Improvements Needed in Selecting Future Projects for Private Financing
1990-01-01
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and NASA jointly selected seven projects for commercialization to reduce NASA's fiscal year 1990 budget request and to help achieve the goal of increasing private sector involvement in space. However, the efforts to privately finance these seven projects did not increase the commercial sector's involvement in space to the extent desired. The General Accounting Office (GAO) determined that the projects selected were not a fair test of the potential of increasing commercial investment in space at an acceptable cost to the government, primarily because the projects were not properly screened. That is, neither their suitability for commercialization nor the economic consequences of seeking private financing for them were adequately evaluated before selection. Evaluations and market tests done after selection showed that most of the projects were not viable candidates for private financing. GAO concluded that projects should not be removed from NASA's budget for commercial development until after careful screening has been done to determine whether adequate commercial demand exists, development risks are commercially acceptable and private financing is found or judged to be highly likely, and the cost effectiveness of such a decision is acceptable. Premature removal of projects from NASA's budget ultimately can cause project delays and increased costs when unsuccessful commercialization candidates must be returned to the budget. NASA also needs to ensure appropriate comparisons of government and private financing options for future commercialization projects.
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Reservoir adaptive operating rules based on both of historical streamflow and future projections
Zhang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Chen, Jie; Lei, Xiaohui; Feng, Maoyuan
2017-10-01
Climate change is affecting hydrological variables and consequently is impacting water resources management. Historical strategies are no longer applicable under climate change. Therefore, adaptive management, especially adaptive operating rules for reservoirs, has been developed to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climate change. However, to date, adaptive operating rules are generally based on future projections involving uncertainties under climate change, yet ignoring historical information. To address this, we propose an approach for deriving adaptive operating rules considering both historical information and future projections, namely historical and future operating rules (HAFOR). A robustness index was developed by comparing benefits from HAFOR with benefits from conventional operating rules (COR). For both historical and future streamflow series, maximizations of both average benefits and the robustness index were employed as objectives, and four trade-offs were implemented to solve the multi-objective problem. Based on the integrated objective, the simulation-based optimization method was used to optimize the parameters of HAFOR. Using the Dongwushi Reservoir in China as a case study, HAFOR was demonstrated to be an effective and robust method for developing adaptive operating rules under the uncertain changing environment. Compared with historical or projected future operating rules (HOR or FPOR), HAFOR can reduce the uncertainty and increase the robustness for future projections, especially regarding results of reservoir releases and volumes. HAFOR, therefore, facilitates adaptive management in the context that climate change is difficult to predict accurately.
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Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard
2006-01-01
California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future
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Palombo, D J; Hayes, S M; Peterson, K M; Keane, M M; Verfaellie, M
2018-02-01
Previous research has shown that the medial temporal lobes (MTL) are more strongly engaged when individuals think about the future than about the present, leading to the suggestion that future projection drives MTL engagement. However, future thinking tasks often involve scene processing, leaving open the alternative possibility that scene-construction demands, rather than future projection, are responsible for the MTL differences observed in prior work. This study explores this alternative account. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we directly contrasted MTL activity in 1) high scene-construction and low scene-construction imagination conditions matched in future thinking demands and 2) future-oriented and present-oriented imagination conditions matched in scene-construction demands. Consistent with the alternative account, the MTL was more active for the high versus low scene-construction condition. By contrast, MTL differences were not observed when comparing the future versus present conditions. Moreover, the magnitude of MTL activation was associated with the extent to which participants imagined a scene but was not associated with the extent to which participants thought about the future. These findings help disambiguate which component processes of imagination specifically involve the MTL. Published by Oxford University Press 2016.
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Self-defining future projections: exploring the identity function of thinking about the future.
D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Lardi, Claudia; Van der Linden, Martial
2012-01-01
The act of projecting oneself into meaningful future events may significantly contribute to a person's sense of self and identity. Yet if the role of memories, in particular self-defining memories (SDMs), in grounding the self is now well established, the identity function of anticipated future events has received comparatively little attention. This article introduces the construct of self-defining future projection (SDFP) to address this issue. Two studies show that people can readily identify significant future events that they frequently think about and that convey core information about who they are as individuals. Furthermore, a person's particular style of constructing SDMs is similarly manifested in SDFPs, suggesting that both types of events can be used to ground the self. Notably, people who display a stronger tendency to extract meaning from their past experiences also reflect more about the potential implications of imagined future events. The results further demonstrate that SDMs and SDFPs both give rise to a strong sense of personal continuity over time and are meaningfully related to self-esteem. Together these findings lend support to the idea that a person's sense of self and identity is in part nourished by the anticipation of significant future events.
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The Future of Project Management in Technical Communication
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kampf, Constance
2006-01-01
Project Management increasing shapes workplace communication, especially when technical commuicators participate in cross-disciplinary development teams. This paper looks at the future of project management in technical communication and argues for a communicative approach to project management...... for technical communication students. The Project Management course in the International Bachelor Program of Marketing and Management Communication at the Aarhus School of Business is described, and the implications fortechnical communication curricula are discussed....
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Interhemispheric Temperature Asymmetry in Historical Observations and Future Projections
Friedman, A. R.; Hwang, Y.; Chiang, J. C.; Frierson, D. M.
2013-12-01
The surface temperature contrast between the northern and southern hemispheres -- the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry (ITA) -- is an emerging indicator of global climate change, especially relevant to the latitude of the tropical rain bands. We investigate the ITA over historical observations and in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations and future projections. We find that the uneven spatial impacts of greenhouse gas forcing cause amplified warming in the Arctic and northern landmasses, resulting in an increase of the ITA. However, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, which are disproportionately emitted in the northern hemisphere, masked these effects on the ITA until around 1980. The implementation of air pollution regulations in North America and Europe combined with increased global emissions of greenhouse gases have resulted in a significant positive ITA trend since 1980. The CMIP5 historical multimodel ensembles simulate this positive ITA trend, though not its full magnitude. We explore how natural variability may account for some of the differences between the simulated and observed ITA. Future simulations project a substantial increase of the ITA over the twenty-first century, well outside its twentieth-century variability. This is largely in response to continued greenhouse gas emissions, though anthropogenic aerosol emissions are also important in some scenarios. We discuss the potential implications of this northern warming in causing a northward shift in tropical rainfall.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thornton, K.W.; Marmorek, D.; Ryan, P.F.; Heltcher, K.; Robinson, D.
1990-09-01
The objectives of the report are to: critically evaluate methods for projecting future effects of acidic deposition on surface water acid-base chemistry; review and evaluate techniques and procedures for analyzing projection uncertainty; review procedures for estimating regional lake and stream population attributes; review the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Direct/Delayed Response Project (DDRP) methodology for projecting the effects of acidic deposition on future changes in surface water acid-base chemistry; and present the models, uncertainty estimators, population estimators, and proposed approach selected to project the effects of acidic deposition on future changes in surface water acid-base chemistry in the NAPAP 1990 Integrated Assessment and discuss the selection rationale
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Leisner, Courtney P.; Wood, Joshua C.; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S.; Robin Buell, C.; Winkler, Julie A.
2017-11-01
Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Liang Haiye
2017-04-01
priority of long-term aims; principle of effectiveness; principle of integrating; principle of inter-subject relations; principle of interpretation of vocal and choral works; principle of intensification that can substantially influence forming of future music teachers’ readiness to vocal and choral activities. In conclusion this article outlines the ways of further determination of directions of forming the phenomenon of implementing project technology into future music teachers’ vocal and choral training.
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Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — a glimpse into current and future projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2015-01-01
With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative.
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Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — A glimpse into current and future projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2015-01-01
With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative
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Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — A glimpse into current and future projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2015-01-01
With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative.
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Projection of Korean Probable Maximum Precipitation under Future Climate Change Scenarios
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Okjeong Lee
2016-01-01
Full Text Available According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, air temperature and humidity of the future are expected to gradually increase over the current. In this study, future PMPs are estimated by using future dew point temperature projection data which are obtained from RCM data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. First, bias included in future dew point temperature projection data which is provided on a daily basis is corrected through a quantile-mapping method. Next, using a scale-invariance technique, 12-hour duration 100-year return period dew point temperatures which are essential input data for PMPs estimation are estimated from bias-corrected future dew point temperature data. After estimating future PMPs, it can be shown that PMPs in all future climate change scenarios (AR5 RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 are very likely to increase.
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A review of the possible future HEP Accelerator Projects
CERN. Geneva
2010-01-01
The review, as already invited for presentation at the recent International Conference on High Energy Physics (ICHEP2010), covers all accelerator projects presently envisaged for HEP in the near and mid-term future. After a brief description of the major motivation, issues and necessary R&D of each project, it specially emphasizes the synergies between the different projects and their R&D issues, pointing out their complementarities and the efficient collaborative approach to address them. It finally summarizes the relative schedule of the various projects in their different phases, pointing out their global interdependence.
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Costing Future Complex and Novel Projects
2016-04-30
Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) is reported. The work involves pioneering data collection, analysis, and tool development to support... philosophy of the work and future prospects for its wider application. Summary The United Kingdom National Audit Office Major Projects Report 2014 states...the work will be in tackling variety in the data collected, one of the “3 Vs ” of Big Data. The outline programme is shown in Figure 2. Programme
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Fostering Radical Collaboration: The OCUL Collaborative Futures Project
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anika Ervin-Ward
2016-07-01
Full Text Available This paper was first given as a poster presentation at the Ontario Library Association Super Conference in 2016. Building on decades of successful cooperative work, the Ontario Council of University Libraries (OCUL Collaborative Futures project aims to select and implement a shared next-generation library services platform (LSP, to manage and preserve print resources in a sustainable system, and to effectively and efficiently use a shared system for the management of electronic and print resources. Phase One of this project was completed in Summer 2015. This is its story. Cet article a été présenté pour la première fois comme une présentation d’affiches à la Super Conference de l’Association des bibliothèques de l’Ontario en 2016. Basant sur des décennies de collaboration réussie, le projet Collaborative Futures du Conseil des bibliothèques universitaires de l’Ontario vise à sélectionner et à mettre en oeuvre une plate-forme des services de bibliothèque de dernière génération, à gérer et à préserver des ressources imprimées dans un système viable, et à utiliser efficacement un système partagé pour la gestion des ressources imprimées et numériques. La première phase de ce projet a été complétée pendant l’été 2015. Ceci est son histoire.
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Addressing the security of a future sustainable power system: The Danish SOSPO project
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Yang, Guangya; Jóhannsson, Hjörtur; Lind, Morten
2012-01-01
evaluated to secure the operation from both transmission and distribution levels. The Danish SOSPO project is launched from 2012 targeting at the system security assessment in the control room for the future scenarios. Methods will be developed in this project to counteract with the future challenges......Current power systems have been undergoing in depth changes by the increasing use of renewable generations. At one hand, the grid is progressively more interconnected in order to collect the renewable generation from geographically dispersed places meanwhile reduce the risks of intermittency......; on the other, the power is increasingly generated at relative low voltage networks which in turn gives rise to new challenges in the conventional system design. The high governmental objective of greenhouse gas reduction provokes accelerating adoptation of the renewables. The effect of this has to be carefully...
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Kolb, C.
2017-12-01
Climate change is expected to pose a significant threat to water resources in the future. Guanacaste Province, located in northwestern Costa Rica, has a unique climate that is influenced by the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea, as well as the Central Cordillera mountain range. Although the region experiences a marked rainy season between May and November, the hot, dry summers often stress water resources. Climate change projections suggest increased temperatures and reduced precipitation for the region, which will further stress water supplies. This study focuses on the effects of climate change on groundwater resources for two coastal aquifers, Potrero and Brasilito. The UZF model package coupled with the finite difference groundwater flow model MODFLOW were used to evaluate the effect of climate change on groundwater recharge and storage. A potential evapotranspiration model was used to estimate groundwater infiltration rates used in the MODFLOW model. Climate change projections for temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to develop climate scenarios, which were compared to historical data. Preliminary results indicate that climate change could reduce future recharge, especially during the dry season. Additionally, the coastal aquifers are at increased risk of reduced storage and increased salinization due to the reductions in groundwater recharge and sea level rise. Climate change could also affect groundwater quality in the region, disrupting the ecosystem and impairing a primary source of drinking water.
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Calculation Method for the Projection of Future Spent Nuclear Fuel Discharges
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
B. McLeod
2002-01-01
This report describes the calculation method developed for the projection of future utility spent nuclear fuel (SNF) discharges in regard to their timing, quantity, burnup, and initial enrichment. This projection method complements the utility-supplied RW-859 data on historic discharges and short-term projections of SNF discharges by providing long-term projections that complete the total life cycle of discharges for each of the current U.S. nuclear power reactors. The method was initially developed in mid-1999 to update the SNF discharge projection associated with the 1995 RW-859 utility survey (CRWMS M and O 1996). and was further developed as described in Rev. 00 of this report (CRWMS M and O 2001a). Primary input to the projection of SNF discharges is the utility projection of the next five discharges from each nuclear unit, which is provided via the revised final version of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 1998 RW-859 utility survey (EIA 2000a). The projection calculation method is implemented via a set of Excel 97 spreadsheets. These calculations provide the interface between receipt of the utility five-discharge projections that are provided in the RW-859 survey, and the delivery of projected life-cycle SNF discharge quantities and characteristics in the format requisite for performing logistics analysis to support design of the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS). Calculation method improvements described in this report include the addition of a reactor-specific maximum enrichment-based discharge burnup limit. This limit is the consequence of the enrichment limit, currently 5 percent. which is imposed as a Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) license condition on nuclear fuel fabrication plants. In addition, the calculation method now includes the capability for projecting future nuclear plant power upratings, consistent with many such recent plant uprates and the prospect of additional future uprates. Finally. this report
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A study on strategies for effective participation in the IAEA/RCA projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chung, Joon Keuk; Jun, Byung Jin; Lee, Man Ki; Jin, Joon Ha; Choi, Pyung Hoon; Kim, Myung Ro; Min, Do Young
2002-07-01
In an effort to achieve the objectives, the following provisions were made. First of all, how this project supported RCA events that were held in Korea during the project period was described. Also, participation in RCA major policy level meetings, RCA-30 Scientific Forum, RCA Regional Office Opening were briefly reviewed. Secondly, RCA's general features including history and objective of its establishment, basic policy, administrative structure, major meetings was also reviewed. Thirdly, Overview of RCA projects, project implementation mechanism, on-going and planned project, review of technology utilization so fat and success stories were described. Fourthly, the issues related to the effective RCA management such as lead countries, Regional Resources Units (RRUs), RCA future vision and outsourcing of technical cooperation projects were reviewed. Finally, proper strategies and recommendations for active implementation of RCA projects were presented. This study can be utilized as basic reference material in the efficient implementation of RCA programmes in the future and for the personnel involved in the RCA projects as the fundamental elements for implementing the RCA cooperation are presented. The effective implementation direction for RCA programmes and strategies for strengthening Korea's participation in RCA projects can be utilized as basic reference material for the effective planning and implementation of RCA projects. It is hoped that this study will be widely utilized for expanding Korea's participation in the RCA project and for establishing a future direction for RCA projects by the governments, industries, academic circles and research institutions
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The German joint research project "concepts for future gravity satellite missions"
Reubelt, Tilo; Sneeuw, Nico; Fichter, Walter; Müller, Jürgen
2010-05-01
Within the German joint research project "concepts for future gravity satellite missions", funded by the Geotechnologies programme of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, options and concepts for future satellite missions for precise (time-variable) gravity field recovery are investigated. The project team is composed of members from science and industry, bringing together experts in geodesy, satellite systems, metrology, sensor technology and control systems. The majority of team members already contributed to former gravity missions. The composition of the team guarantees that not only geodetic aspects and objectives are investigated, but also technological and financial constraints are considered. Conversely, satellite, sensor and system concepts are developed and improved in a direct exchange with geodetic and scientific claims. The project aims to develop concepts for both near and mid-term future satellite missions, taking into account e.g. advanced satellite formations and constellations, improved orbit design, innovative metrology and sensor systems and advances in satellite systems.
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Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review
Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu
2011-01-01
Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703
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Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California
Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.
2008-12-01
Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise
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Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ettore Bernardoni
2012-03-01
Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios
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Present status and future directions of the Mayo/IBM PACS project
Morin, Richard L.; Forbes, Glenn S.; Gehring, Dale G.; Salutz, James R.; Pavlicek, William
1991-07-01
This joint project began in 1988 and was motivated by the need to develop an alternative to the archival process in place at that time (magnetic tape) for magnetic resonance imaging and neurological computed tomography. In addition, this project was felt to be an important step in gaining the necessary clinical experience for the future implementation of various aspects of electronic imaging. The initial phase of the project was conceived and developed to prove the concept, test the fundamental components, and produce performance measurements for future work. The key functions of this phase centered on attachment of imaging equipment (GE Signa) and archival processes using a non-dedicated (institutionally supplied) local area network (LAN). Attachment of imaging equipment to the LAN was performed using commercially available devices (Ethernet, PS/2, Token Ring). Image data were converted to ACR/NEMA format with retention of the vendor specific header information. Performance measurements were encouraging and led to the design of following projects. The second phase has recently been concluded. The major features of this phase have been to greatly expand the network, put the network into clinical use, establish an efficient and useful viewing station, include diagnostic reports in the archive data, provide wide area network (WAN) capability via ISDN, and establish two-way real-time video between remote sites. This phase has heightened both departmental and institutional thought regarding various issues raised by electronic imaging. Much discussion regarding both present as well as future archival processes has occurred. The use of institutional LAN resources has proven to be adequate for the archival function examined thus far. Experiments to date have shown that use of dedicated resources will be necessary for retrieval activities at even a basic level. This report presents an overview of the background present status and future directions of the project.
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Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Limanond, Thirayoot; Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj; Srikaew, Artit
2011-01-01
The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: → Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. → The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. → The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.
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Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Limanond, Thirayoot, E-mail: tlimanond@yahoo.co [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Srikaew, Artit [School of Electrical Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand)
2011-05-15
The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: {yields} Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. {yields} The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. {yields} The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.
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UAS Integration in the NAS Project and Future Autonomy Research
Johnson, Charles W.
2014-01-01
This presentation highlights NASA use of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and related technologies for civil purposes. This briefing will give more insight into the UAS projects progress and future goals.
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Optimizing the financial structure and maximizing the future value of your generation project
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arulampalam, G.; Letellier, M.
2004-01-01
This paper discusses ways of optimizing the financial structure and maximizing the future value of an electric power generation project. It outlines the project structure, the sponsor objectives, project finance lending criteria, project timeline, risk mitigation, bank and institutional financing, sponsor's role, impact of financing choices on project value, and impact of penalties and derivative products
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vimmerstedt, Laura J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
2018-01-02
This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use service demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.
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Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices
Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.
2017-12-01
Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable
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Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective
Sudeepkumar, B. L.; Babu, C. A.; Varikoden, Hamza
2018-02-01
The effect of global climate change on Indian summer monsoon has been analysed with special emphasis on active-break cycle. The changes in intensity and duration of active and break monsoon conditions towards the end of the century are studied by using 850 hPa zonal circulations. The analysis is carried out using twenty year climatology of historical period (1986-2005) and future projections (2080-2099) simulated as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Models are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The models that effectively capture the circulation pattern of monsoon (JJAS) are considered for assessing the future climate in RCP 4.5 scenario. They are CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR. During the southwest monsoon period, the ensemble mean of models projects a strengthening of the wind speed towards north (north of 15°N) and weakening to the southern region (especially south of 12°N) which facilitates wetting of northern Indian regions and drying of southern peninsular regions. In the case of active-break conditions, the active spells are found to be strengthening over northern India and weakening over the peninsular India, the break spells intensify over southern tip of peninsular India indicating intense breaks. Increased propensity of short intense active days and decreased propensity of long active days are also projected by the models. The number of break spells does not show any significant changes.
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Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Zongci Zhao
2011-01-01
@@ As we know,the projections of future climate change including impacts and strategies in the IPCC Assessment Reports were based on global climate models with scenarios on various human activities.Global climate model simulations provide key inputs for climate change assessments. In this study,the main objective is to analyze if the projections of fu-ture climate change by global climate models are reli-able.Several workshops have been held on this issue,such as the IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi-model climate projections in January of 2010 (presided by the co-chairs of the IPCC WGI and WGII AR5),and the workshop of the combined global climate model group held by NCAR in June of 2010.
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The sustainable project management: A review and future possibilities
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V.K. Chawla
2018-06-01
Full Text Available Sustainability in project operations such as financial, social and environmental sustainability is one of the most prominent issues of the present times to address. The increased focus on sus-tainable business operations has changed the viewpoint of researchers and corporate community towards the project management. Today sustainability in business operations along with sustain-ability of natural and environmental resources are of paramount significance which has further caused a huge impact on conception, planning, scheduling and execution of the project manage-ment activities. In this paper, a literature review between 1987 and 2018 on different issues af-fecting the sustainability in project management is carried out. The present study also identifies and discusses the future possibilities to apply computational procedures in order to estimate and optimize the sustainability issues in the management of projects, for example the computational evolutionary algorithms can be applied to formulate the multi-objective decision-making problem after considering critical factors of sustainability in the projects and then yielding optimized solu-tions for the formulated problem to achieve sustainability in the projects. A new integrated framework with the inclusion of feedback function for assessment of each decision and actions taken towards the sustainability of the projects is also identified and presented.
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Projected climate change futures for Southern Africa
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Tadross, M
2017-10-01
Full Text Available of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa. In these experiments, a variable-resolution atmospheric global circulation model, CCAM, was applied as a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate both present-day and future climate... climate projection Observed climate RCM Climate forcing Climate simulation Statistical downscaling Dynamical downscaling 22 | Second Edition There are four pathways – RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. RCP 2.6 describes a scenario of very low...
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Future Projection of Droughts over South Korea Using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Byung Sik Kim
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, a method widely used to analyze droughts related to climate change, does not consider variables related to temperature and is limited because it cannot consider changes in hydrological balance, such as evapotranspiration from climate change. If we were to consider only the future increase in precipitation from climate change, droughts may decrease. However, because usable water can diminish from an increase in evapotranspiration, it is important to research on projected droughts considering the amount of evapotranspiration along with projecting and evaluating potential droughts considering the impact of climate change. As such, this study evaluated the occurrence of droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI as a newly conceptualized drought index that is similar to SPI but includes the temperature variability. We extracted simulated future precipitation and temperature data (2011 - 2099 from the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP climate change scenario of IPCC AR5 to evaluate the impact of future climate change on the occurrence of droughts of South Korea. We analyzed the ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation of meteorological observatories nationwide. In addition, we calculated the SPEI related to drought in the process to evaluate the future occurrence of droughts of South Korea. To confirm validity of SPEI results, extreme indices were analyzed. This resulted in the notion that as we go further into the future, the precipitation increases. But because of an increase in evapotranspiration also from a rise in temperature and continued dryness, the severity of droughts is projected to exacerbate.
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Uncertainty of future projections of species distributions in mountainous regions.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ying Tang
Full Text Available Multiple factors introduce uncertainty into projections of species distributions under climate change. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information used to calibrate a species distribution model and to downscale global climate model (GCM simulations to a finer spatial resolution is a particular concern for mountainous regions, as the spatial resolution of climate observing networks is often insufficient to detect the steep climatic gradients in these areas. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt modeling framework together with occurrence data on 21 understory bamboo species distributed across the mountainous geographic range of the Giant Panda, we examined the differences in projected species distributions obtained from two contrasting sources of baseline climate information, one derived from spatial interpolation of coarse-scale station observations and the other derived from fine-spatial resolution satellite measurements. For each bamboo species, the MaxEnt model was calibrated separately for the two datasets and applied to 17 GCM simulations downscaled using the delta method. Greater differences in the projected spatial distributions of the bamboo species were observed for the models calibrated using the different baseline datasets than between the different downscaled GCM simulations for the same calibration. In terms of the projected future climatically-suitable area by species, quantification using a multi-factor analysis of variance suggested that the sum of the variance explained by the baseline climate dataset used for model calibration and the interaction between the baseline climate data and the GCM simulation via downscaling accounted for, on average, 40% of the total variation among the future projections. Our analyses illustrate that the combined use of gridded datasets developed from station observations and satellite measurements can help estimate the uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Y. Fei
2014-09-01
Full Text Available In this study, a hydrological modelling framework was introduced to assess the climate change impacts on future river flow in the West River basin, China, especially on streamflow variability and extremes. The modelling framework includes a delta-change method with the quantile-mapping technique to construct future climate forcings on the basis of observed meteorological data and the downscaled climate model outputs. This method is able to retain the signals of extreme weather events, as projected by climate models, in the constructed future forcing scenarios. Fed with the historical and future forcing data, a large-scale hydrologic model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC was executed for streamflow simulations and projections at daily time scales. A bootstrapping resample approach was used as an indirect alternative to test the equality of means, standard deviations and the coefficients of variation for the baseline and future streamflow time series, and to assess the future changes in flood return levels. The West River basin case study confirms that the introduced modelling framework is an efficient effective tool to quantify streamflow variability and extremes in response to future climate change.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bisaillon, Mattias; Dahlen, Lisa; Detterfelt, Lia; Edner, Stig; Toren, Johan
2013-09-01
There are several recently introduced and future possible policy instruments that are of great interest to study in order to understand the future for the Swedish waste treatment market. In the energy sector, the use of system analysis models has proven to be effective in order to understand the effects and consequences of policy instruments. In the waste sector, however, such analyses have only been conducted sporadically. This in spite of the introduction of highly influential policy instruments such as producer responsibility, landfill tax and landfill ban, which together have contributed to landfilling of Swedish household waste practically has ceased. The goal of this project was, by using system analysis models, to study and evaluate the newly introduced and future possible policy instruments which affect Swedish waste treatment. The assessment was made in terms of how policy instruments affect: - the distribution of treatment technologies, - waste amounts, - greenhouse gas emissions and - the economics of waste treatment. The project was performed during 2011 and 2012 as a part of the research project 'Perspectives on sustainable waste treatment (PFA)'. During the project, discussions have taken place within the working group and the reference group on which instruments are most interesting and relevant to study. Furthermore, opinions have been gathered from the association Swedish Waste Managements policy instrument group and from various players in the industry at conferences, presentations and workshops.
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Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Taylor
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF, a relatively recently emerged zoonosis endemic to large parts of sub-Saharan Africa that has the potential to spread beyond the continent, have profound health and socio-economic impacts, particularly in communities where resilience is already low. Here output from a new, dynamic disease model [the Liverpool RVF (LRVF model], driven by downscaled, bias-corrected climate change data from an ensemble of global circulation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project run according to two radiative forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5], is combined with results of a spatial assessment of social vulnerability to the disease in eastern Africa. The combined approach allowed for analyses of spatial and temporal variations in the risk of RVF to the end of the current century. Results for both scenarios highlight the high-risk of future RVF outbreaks, including in parts of eastern Africa to date unaffected by the disease. The results also highlight the risk of spread from/to countries adjacent to the study area, and possibly farther afield, and the value of considering the geography of future projections of disease risk. Based on the results, there is a clear need to remain vigilant and to invest not only in surveillance and early warning systems, but also in addressing the socio-economic factors that underpin social vulnerability in order to mitigate, effectively, future impacts.
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Projections on the future of the natural uranium industry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ishido, Akio
1995-01-01
This discussion looks at the future of the uranium industry and considers what type of procurement policy should be adopted. Viewing the future as an extension of the present, it is possible that supplies of natural uranium will begin to run short around 2015. However, natural uranium will have more resources available than petroleum. If rising uranium prices reinvigorate exploration and lead to the discovery of new uranium deposits, future shortages will be unlikely. Nonetheless, with structural changes expected in the world economy, the nature of natural uranium transactions will no doubt change, thereby increasing the present element of uncertainty that much more. At the same time, the oligopolistic situation created by today's major producers will intensify. Based on these projections, the author has reassessed Japan's past procurement policy of government exploration/development support combined with private-sector uranium purchasing and finds this shared risk approach to be the best. (author)
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Future projects of light kaonic atom X-ray spectroscopy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tatsuno, H.; Bazzi, M.; Beer, G.; Bellotti, G.; Berucci, C.; Bragadireanu, A.M.; Bosnar, D.; Cargnelli, M.; Curceanu, C.; Butt, A.D.; D’Uffizi, A.; Fiorini, C.; Ghio, F.; Guaraldo, C.; Hayano, R.S.; Iliescu, M.; Ishiwatari, T.; Iwasaki, M.; Sandri, P. Levi; Marton, J.; Okada, S.; Pietreanu, D.; Piscicchia, K.; Vidal, A. Romero; Sbardella, E.; Scordo, A.; Shi, H.; Sirghi, D.L.; Sirghi, F.; Doce, O. Vazquez; Widmann, E.; Zmeskal, J.
2016-01-01
X-ray spectroscopy of light kaonic atoms is a unique tool to provide precise information on the fundamental K̄N interaction at the low-energy limit and the in-medium nuclear interaction of K"−. The future experiments of kaonic deuterium strong-interaction shift and width (SIDDHARTA-2 and J-PARC E57) can extract the isospin dependent K"−N interaction at threshold. The high-resolution X-ray spectroscopy of kaonic helium with microcalorimeters (J-PARC E62) has the possibility to solve the long-standing potential-strength problem of the attractive K"−-nucleus interaction. Here, the recent experimental results and the future projects of X-ray spectroscopy of light kaonic atoms are presented.
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Raffard, Stéphane; Bortolon, Catherine; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Gardes, Jeanne; Gely-Nargeot, Marie-Christine; Capdevielle, Delphine; Van der Linden, Martial
2016-07-01
The ability to project oneself into the future contributes to development and maintenance of a coherent sense of identity. If recent research has revealed that schizophrenia is associated with difficulties envisioning the future, little is known about patients' future self-representations. In this study, 27 participants with schizophrenia and 26 healthy controls were asked to simulate mental representations of plausible and highly significant future events (self-defining future projections, SDFPs) that they anticipate to happen in their personal future. Main results showed that schizophrenia patients had difficulties in reflecting on the broader meaning and implications of imagined future events. In addition, and contrary to our hypothesis, a large majority of SDFPs in schizophrenia patients were positive events, including achievements, relationship, and leisure contents. Interestingly, patients and controls did not differ on the perceived probability that these events will occur in the future. Our results suggest that schizophrenia patients have an exaggerated positive perception of their future selves. Together, these findings lend support to the idea that past and future self-defining representations have both similar and distinct characteristics in schizophrenia.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yoshimura, Shinobu
2001-01-01
The ADVENTURE project began on August, 1997, as a project in the computational science' field of JSPS-RFTFADVENTURE project, and is progressed as five year project. In this project, by using versatile parallel computer environment such as PC cluster, super parallel computer, and so on , to solve an arbitrary shape of actual dynamical equation by using 10 to 100 million freedom class mode under maintaining a general use analytical capacity agreeable with present general use computational mechanics system, further development of a large-scale parallel computational mechanics system (ADVENTURE system) capable of carrying out an optimization design on shapes, physical properties, loading conditions, and so on is performed. Here was scoped, after outlining on background of R and D on ADVENTURE system and its features, on near future virtual mockup test forecast from it. (G.K.)
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JPL Project Information Management: A Continuum Back to the Future
Reiz, Julie M.
2009-01-01
This slide presentation reviews the practices and architecture that support information management at JPL. This practice has allowed concurrent use and reuse of information by primary and secondary users. The use of this practice is illustrated in the evolution of the Mars Rovers from the Mars Pathfinder to the development of the Mars Science Laboratory. The recognition of the importance of information management during all phases of a project life cycle has resulted in the design of an information system that includes metadata, has reduced the risk of information loss through the use of an in-process appraisal, shaping of project's appreciation for capturing and managing the information on one project for re-use by future projects as a natural outgrowth of the process. This process has also assisted in connection of geographically disbursed partners into a team through sharing information, common tools and collaboration.
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LENUS (Irish Health Repository)
Conway, Aisling
2014-10-21
As the health services in Ireland have become more resource-constrained, pressure has increased to reduce public spending on community drug schemes such as General Medical Services (GMS) drug prescribing and to understand current and future trends in prescribing. The GMS scheme covers approximately 37% of the Irish population in 2011 and entitles them, inter alia, to free prescription drugs and appliances. This paper projects the effects of future changes in population, coverage, claims rates and average claims cost on GMS costs in Ireland.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kildemoes, Helle Wallach; Andersen, Morten; Støvring, Henrik
2010-01-01
To develop a method for projecting the impact of ageing and changing drug utilization patterns on future drug expenditure.......To develop a method for projecting the impact of ageing and changing drug utilization patterns on future drug expenditure....
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Projecting future summer mortality due to ambient ozone concentration and temperature changes
Lee, Jae Young; Lee, Soo Hyun; Hong, Sung-Chul; Kim, Ho
2017-05-01
Climate change is known to affect the human health both directly by increased heat stress and indirectly by altering environments, particularly by altering the rate of ambient ozone formation in the atmosphere. Thus, the risks of climate change may be underestimated if the effects of both future temperature and ambient ozone concentrations are not considered. This study presents a projection of future summer non-accidental mortality in seven major cities of South Korea during the 2020s (2016-2025) and 2050s (2046-2055) considering changes in temperature and ozone concentration, which were predicted by using the HadGEM3-RA model and Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System, respectively. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) were considered. The result shows that non-accidental summer mortality will increase by 0.5%, 0.0%, 0.4%, and 0.4% in the 2020s, 1.9%, 1.5%, 1.2%, and 4.4% in the 2050s due to temperature change compared to the baseline mortality during 2001-2010, under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the mortality will increase by 0.0%, 0.5%, 0.0%, and 0.5% in the 2020s, and 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.6% in the 2050s due to ozone concentration change. The projection result shows that the future summer morality in South Korea is increased due to changes in both temperature and ozone, and the magnitude of ozone-related increase is much smaller than that of temperature-related increase, especially in the 2050s.
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Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de, E-mail: fabio@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Nuclear and Engineering Center; Imakuma, Kengo, E-mail: kimakuma@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Information Technology Development Dept.
2011-07-01
This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)
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Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de; Imakuma, Kengo
2011-01-01
This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)
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FutureCoast: "Listen to your futures"
Pfirman, S. L.; Eklund, K.; Thacher, S.; Orlove, B. S.; Diane Stovall-Soto, G.; Brunacini, J.; Hernandez, T.
2014-12-01
Two science-arts approaches are emerging as effective means to convey "futurethinking" to learners: systems gaming and experiential futures. FutureCoast exemplifies the latter: by engaging participants with voicemails supposedly leaking from the cloud of possible futures, the storymaking game frames the complexities of climate science in relatable contexts. Because participants make the voicemails themselves, FutureCoast opens up creative ways for people to think about possibly climate-changed futures and personal ways to talk about them. FutureCoast is a project of the PoLAR Partnership with a target audience of informal adult learners primarily reached via mobile devices and online platforms. Scientists increasingly use scenarios and storylines as ways to explore the implications of environmental change and societal choices. Stories help people make connections across experiences and disciplines and link large-scale events to personal consequences. By making the future seem real today, FutureCoast's framework helps people visualize and plan for future climate changes. The voicemails contributed to FutureCoast are spread through the game's intended timeframe (2020 through 2065). Based on initial content analysis of voicemail text, common themes include ecosystems and landscapes, weather, technology, societal issues, governance and policy. Other issues somewhat less frequently discussed include security, food, industry and business, health, energy, infrastructure, water, economy, and migration. Further voicemail analysis is examining: temporal dimensions (salient time frames, short vs. long term issues, intergenerational, etc.), content (adaptation vs. mitigation, challenges vs. opportunities, etc.), and emotion (hopeful, resigned, etc. and overall emotional context). FutureCoast also engaged audiences through facilitated in-person experiences, geocaching events, and social media (Tumblr, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube). Analysis of the project suggests story
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Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.
2016-01-01
A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there
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Future Urban Climate Projection in A Tropical Megacity Based on Global and Regional Scenarios
Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.
2017-12-01
Cities in Asian developing countries experience rapid transformation in urban morphology and energy consumption, which correspondingly affects urban climate. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) in the tropic Jakarta Greater Area was conducted. Simulation was conducted during the dry months from 2006 to 2015 and agreed well with point and satellite observation. The same technology coupled with pseudo global warming (PGW) method based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario 2.6 and 8.5 was conducted to produce futuristic climate condition in 2050. Projected urban morphology and AHE in 2050s were constructed using regional urban growing model with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) among its inputs. Compact future urban configuration, based on SSP1, was coupled to RCP2.6. Unrestrained future urban configuration, based on SSP3, was coupled to RCP8.5. Results show that background warming from RCP 2.6 and 8.5 will increase background temperature by 0.55°C and 1.2°C throughout the region, respectively. Future projection of urban sprawl results to an additional 0.3°C and 0.5°C increase on average, with maximum increase of 1.1°C and 1.3°C due to urban effect for RCP2.6/compact and RCP8.5/unrestrained, respectively. Higher moisture content in urban area is indicated in the future due to higher evaporation. Change in urban roughness is likely affect slower wind velocity in urban area and sea breeze front inland penetration the future compare with current condition. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.
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Projected future changes in vegetation in western North America in the 21st century
Xiaoyan, Jiang; Rauscher, Sara A.; Ringler, Todd D.; Lawrence, David M.; Williams, A. Park; Allen, Craig D.; Steiner, Allison L.; Cai, D. Michael; McDowell, Nate G.
2013-01-01
Rapid and broad-scale forest mortality associated with recent droughts, rising temperature, and insect outbreaks has been observed over western North America (NA). Climate models project additional future warming and increasing drought and water stress for this region. To assess future potential changes in vegetation distributions in western NA, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupled with its Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) was used under the future A2 emissions scenario. To better span uncertainties in future climate, eight sea surface temperature (SST) projections provided by phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were employed as boundary conditions. There is a broad consensus among the simulations, despite differences in the simulated climate trajectories across the ensemble, that about half of the needleleaf evergreen tree coverage (from 24% to 11%) will disappear, coincident with a 14% (from 11% to 25%) increase in shrubs and grasses by the end of the twenty-first century in western NA, with most of the change occurring over the latter half of the twenty-first century. The net impact is a ~6 GtC or about 50% decrease in projected ecosystem carbon storage in this region. The findings suggest a potential for a widespread shift from tree-dominated landscapes to shrub and grass-dominated landscapes in western NA because of future warming and consequent increases in water deficits. These results highlight the need for improved process-based understanding of vegetation dynamics, particularly including mortality and the subsequent incorporation of these mechanisms into earth system models to better quantify the vulnerability of western NA forests under climate change.
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Physics Projects for a Future CERN-LNGS Neutrino Programme
Picchi, P.; Pietropaolo, F.
1998-01-01
We present an overview of the future projects concerning the neutrino oscillation physics in Europe. Recently a joint CERN-LNGS scientific committee has reviewed several proposals both for the study of atmospheric neutrinos and for long (LBL) and short baseline (SBL) neutrino oscillation experiments. The committee has indicated the priority that the European high energy physics community should follows in the field of neutrino physics, namely a new massive, atmospheric neutrino detector and a...
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Chinese villages and their sustainable future: the European Union-China-Research Project "SUCCESS".
Dumreicher, Heidi
2008-04-01
China has 800,000 villages-one person out of seven on the globe is living in a Chinese rural settlement. Yet the global discussions about the situation in China is currently characterised by a disproportionate focus on the development of towns and until now circumstances have generally been neglected in the rural areas, where 70% of the Chinese population is still living. Within the 5 years of the SUCCESS project research, this set of actual problems has been considered and analysed under the principle of sustainability: "What to maintain?" "What to change?" were the overall research questions asked in the SUCCESS project; the researchers were looking for answers under a sustainability regime, respecting the need to raise the quality of life in the villages. Several interweaving processes were used to achieve results: the inter-disciplinary research process between many areas of expertise, the trans-disciplinary process between the researchers and the Chinese villagers, and a negotiation process that made the connection between these two processes. The introduction describes the basic sustainability definition that was orienting the whole study. The innovation lays mostly in the methodology: the inter-disciplinary research co-operation related to practice and to involving the affected communities is needed to manage the significant and growing imbalances between urban and rural areas regarding their sustainability. In the transdisciplinary work, the project developed "village future sentences" that describe the local outcome of the research as one step towards better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms that could lead to a sustainable future, and they also managed to start sustainability processes in the case study sites. The integrated approach of the project helped generating future scenarios for these villages covering all aspects of their development, including urban design issues. Out of these scenarios, the villages developed small projects that could
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Futures project anticipates changes and challenges facing forests of the northern United States
Stephen R. Shifley; W. Keith Moser; Michael E. Goerndt; Nianfu Song; Mark D. Nelson; David J. Nowak; Patrick D. Miles; Brett J. Butler; Ryan D. DeSantis; Francisco X. Aguilar; Brian G. Tavernia
2014-01-01
The Northern Forest Futures Project aims to reveal how today's trends and choices are likely to change the future forest landscape in the northeastern and midwestern United States. The research is focused on the 20-state quadrant bounded by Maine, Maryland, Missouri, and Minnesota. This area, which encompasses most of the Central Hardwood Forest region, is the...
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Projected future runoff of the Breede River under climate change ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The Breede River is the largest river in the Western Cape Province of South Africa, and as such, is a key resource for a variety of activities within the region. It is this significance of the river that prompted a study into the impact of climate change on future runoff in the river and hence, the potential impacts a projected change ...
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Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.
2012-04-01
Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.
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Pore Water Arsenic Dynamics in Rice Paddies Under Projected Future Climates
Plaganas, M.; Wang, T.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.
2016-12-01
Rice is one of the staple crops in the world, with 50% of the global population eating rice daily. Many rice-producing regions of the world are irrigated with groundwater contaminated with arsenic (As), and in particular South and Southeast Asia, where geogenic As is leached into the groundwater. Use of groundwater pervasively high in As leads to subsequent accumulation in paddy soils. Arsenic, a toxic metalloid, also decreases rice productivity and further jeopardizes food security. Hence, rice agriculture is concerned with its productivity in a climate change impacted future and the particular impacts of arsenic on yields. However, past studies do not address the prevalence of As in paddy soils or its fate in the rhizosphere and ultimate impact on the plant. The objective of our study was to determine changes in pore water As dynamics in the rhizosphere of rice plants grown on As-contaminated paddy soil under climate conditions projected for the end of the century. In order to address this objective, we designed greenhouse chambers with today's climate and projected climate conditions for the year 2100, specifically 5°C increase in temperature and doubled concentration of atmospheric CO2. We hypothesize that the effects of climate change with these conditions will increase the mobility of As in the rhizosphere, and thus, decrease rice growth in As-bearing paddies more than, so far, expected. We examined pore water geochemistry including pH and As concentrations, and correlate that to the height of the plants. Furthermore, the dynamics of other elements in the pore water such as carbon, iron, sulfur, manganese, and silica are further evaluated for their effects on rice growth. Arsenic will have an impact on rice production and conditions induced by future climatic conditions need to be considered for food security. Considering that climate change will decrease the global agricultural output, we should urgently consider adapting our agricultural practices to aid
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Maturity effects in energy futures
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Serletis, Apostolos (Calgary Univ., AB (CA). Dept. of Economics)
1992-04-01
This paper examines the effects of maturity on future price volatility and trading volume for 129 energy futures contracts recently traded in the NYMEX. The results provide support for the maturity effect hypothesis, that is, energy futures prices to become more volatile and trading volume increases as futures contracts approach maturity. (author).
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Berry, Roberta M; Levine, Aaron D; Kirkman, Robert; Blake, Laura Palucki; Drake, Matthew
2016-12-01
We believe that the professional responsibility of bioscience and biotechnology professionals includes a social responsibility to contribute to the resolution of ethically fraught policy problems generated by their work. It follows that educators have a professional responsibility to prepare future professionals to discharge this responsibility. This essay discusses two pilot projects in ethics pedagogy focused on particularly challenging policy problems, which we call "fractious problems". The projects aimed to advance future professionals' acquisition of "fractious problem navigational" skills, a set of skills designed to enable broad and deep understanding of fractious problems and the design of good policy resolutions for them. A secondary objective was to enhance future professionals' motivation to apply these skills to help their communities resolve these problems. The projects employed "problem based learning" courses to advance these learning objectives. A new assessment instrument, "Skills for Science/Engineering Ethics Test" (SkillSET), was designed and administered to measure the success of the courses in doing so. This essay first discusses the rationale for the pilot projects, and then describes the design of the pilot courses and presents the results of our assessment using SkillSET in the first pilot project and the revised SkillSET 2.0 in the second pilot project. The essay concludes with discussion of observations and results.
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Gulyás, Krisztina; Berki, Imre; Veperdi, Gábor
2017-04-01
As a result of regional climate change, most European countries are experiencing an increase in mean annual temperature and CO2 concentration and a decrease in mean annual precipitation. In low-elevation areas in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is a limiting factor, the projected climate change threatens the health, production, and potential distribution of forest ecosystems. The intensive summer droughts and commonly occurring extreme weather events create negative influences that cause health declines, changes in yield potential, and tree mortality. Due to the observed damages, attention has been focused on these problems. The impacts of climatic extremes cause difficulties in forest management; these difficulties occur more frequently in Hungary, which is a region that is the most sensitive to climatic extremes. Regional climate model simulations project that the frequency of extremely high temperatures and long-term dry periods will increase; both of these factors have negative effects on future tree species distribution and production. Thus, the aim of our study is to utilize the sessile oak (Quercus petraea) as a climate indicator tree species to investigate potential future distribution and estimate changes in growth trends. For future spatial distribution, we used the Fuzzy membership distribution model in a new Decision Support System (DSS) which was developed for the Hungarian forestry and agricultural sectors. Through study techniques we can employ DSS, which contains various environmental layers (topography, vegetation, past and projected future climate, soils, and hydrology), to create probability distribution maps. The results, based on 12 regional climate model simulations (www.ensembles-eu.org), show that the area of sessile oak forests is shrinking continuously and will continue to do so to the end of the 21st century. For future production estimations, we analysed intensive long-term growth monitoring network plots that were established in
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Risk Management in Future Romanian E-Government 2.0 Projects
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Didraga Otniel
2015-08-01
Full Text Available E-government public services in Romania must follow unitary procedures considering the new requirements of the European Union from the Digital Agenda for Europe Strategy 2020. E-government 2.0 has to be implemented because of the cultural and behavioral transformations in the interaction between governments and users of e-services. E-government 2.0 projects use tools and techniques of social media to accomplish their goals. This article examines the possible risk categories and the risk management procedures needed to mitigate risks in future Romanian e-government projects, according to the strategic lines of development for the Digital Agenda. We propose a risk management plan for the e-government lines of action within the strategic lines of development that includes identifying, assessing, and mitigating the risks. New and modernized government services through e-government 2.0 projects that apply risk management will bring a significant improvement in how citizens and businesses relate to government and will increase the use of e-government services.
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Intelum project: tackling the calorimetry challenge for future high-energy colliders
CERN Bulletin
2015-01-01
Intelum is one of the CERN-coordinated projects funded under H2020. It aims to develop low-cost, radiation-hard scintillating and Cherenkov crystal and glass fibres for the next generation of calorimeter detectors for future high-energy experiments. This new technology could also have important applications in the medical imaging field. Intelum project partners at the kick-off meeting held on 11 March at CERN. Intelum is an H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Research and Innovation Staff Exchange (RISE) project coordinated by CERN. This project was initiated by the Crystal Clear Collaboration (CERN’s RD18 experiment), which has been developing inorganic scintillation materials for novel ionising-radiation detectors for 25 years. Intelum is an international consortium including fifteen institutes and companies from across western and eastern Europe, Japan and the USA, all of which are experts in crystal growth, scintillating mechanisms, radiation damage and dete...
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Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol
2018-01-01
Access to climate and spatial datasets by non-specialists is restricted by technical barriers involving hardware, software and data formats. We discuss an open-source online tool that facilitates downloading the climate data from the global circulation models used by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. The tool also offers temporal and spatial aggregation capabilities for incorporating future climate scenarios in applications where spatial aggregation is important. We hope that streamlined access to these data facilitates analysis of climate related issues while considering the uncertainties derived from future climate projections and temporal aggregation choices.
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Shimura, Tomoya; Mori, Nobuhito; Mase, Hajime
2015-01-01
Changes in ocean surface waves elicit a variety of impacts on coastal environments. To assess the future changes in the ocean surface wave climate, several future projections of global wave climate have been simulated in previous studies. However, previously there has been little discussion about the causes behind changes in the future wave climate and the differences between projections. The objective of this study is to estimate the future changes in mean wave climate and the sensitivity of...
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Future projection of design storms using a GCM-informed weather generator
KIm, T. W.; Wi, S.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Valdés, J. B.
2017-12-01
The rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are one of the most common tools used to provide planners with a description of the frequency of extreme rainfall events of various intensities and durations. Therefore deriving appropriate IDF estimates is important to avoid malfunctions of water structures that cause huge damage. Evaluating IDF estimates in the context of climate change has become more important because projections from climate models suggest that the frequency of intense rainfall events will increase in the future due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the Bartlett-Lewis (BL) stochastic rainfall model is employed to generate annual maximum series of various sub-daily durations for test basins of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) project, and to derive the IDF curves in the context of climate changes projected by the North American Regional Climate Change (NARCCAP) models. From our results, it has been found that the observed annual rainfall maximum series is reasonably represented by the synthetic annual maximum series generated by the BL model. The observed data is perturbed by change factors to incorporate the NARCCAP climate change scenarios into the IDF estimates. The future IDF curves show a significant difference from the historical IDF curves calculated for the period 1968-2000. Overall, the projected IDF curves show an increasing trend over time. The impacts of changes in extreme rainfall on the hydrologic response of the MOPEX basins are also explored. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS-NH-2015-79] through the Disaster and Safety Management Institute funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government.
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FutureGen 2.0 Pipeline and Regional Carbon Capture Storage Project - Final Report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Burger, Chris [Patrick Engineering Inc., Lisle, IL (United States); Wortman, David [Patrick Engineering Inc., Lisle, IL (United States); Brown, Chris [Battelle Memorial Inst., Richland, WA (United States); Hassan, Syed [Gulf Interstate Engineering, Houston, TX (United States); Humphreys, Ken [Futuregen Industrial Alliance, Inc., Washington, D.C. (United States); Willford, Mark [Futuregen Industrial Alliance, Inc., Washington, D.C. (United States)
2016-03-31
The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) FutureGen 2.0 Program involves two projects: (1) the Oxy-Combustion Power Plant Project and (2) the CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project. This Final Technical Report is focused on the CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project. The FutureGen 2.0 CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project evolved from an initial siting and project definition effort in Phase I, into the Phase II activity consisting permitting, design development, the acquisition of land rights, facility design, and licensing and regulatory approvals. Phase II also progressed into construction packaging, construction procurement, and targeted early preparatory activities in the field. The CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project accomplishments were significant, and in some cases unprecedented. The engineering, permitting, legal, stakeholder, and commercial learnings substantially advance the nation’s understanding of commercial-scale CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers. Voluminous and significant information was obtained from the drilling and the testing program of the subsurface, and sophisticated modeling was performed that held up to a wide range of scrutiny. All designs progressed to the point of securing construction contracts or comfort letters attesting to successful negotiation of all contract terms and willing execution at the appropriate time all major project elements – pipeline, surface facilities, and subsurface – as well as operations. While the physical installation of the planned facilities did not proceed in part due to insufficient time to complete the project prior to the expiration of federal funding, the project met significant objectives prior to DOE’s closeout decision. Had additional time been available, there were no known, insurmountable obstacles that would have precluded successful construction and operation of the project. Due to the suspension of the project, site restoration activities were developed and the work was accomplished. The site restoration
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The future is no longer what it used to be. Managing health telematics projects.
Demeester, M; Beuscart, R
1997-09-01
Future used to mean global progress and convergence of science and technology and society. Today, we observe the decoupling of the two poles of knowledge formation and application (i.e. science and technology, and culture and society, respectively) and also fierce confrontation between them. The key issue to reconcile the two poles is to re-invent the link between them. The new future lies in the development of mental and technical capacities for change and the creation of new forms of solidarity. We propose, as a general attitude, to reactivate and develop the four principles of efficacy-effectiveness-efficiency, hospitality, responsibility and pertinence. Translated into driving forces for the development of health care telematic projects, they amount to the acceptance of and capacity for enterprise-wide solutions, hospitality and capacity to acquire outside knowledge, self-managed, multi-functional team work spirit, reengineering mentality to achieve pertinent technico-cultural solutions.
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Utilization of paleoclimate results to validate projections of a future greenhouse warming
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Crowley, T.J.
1990-01-01
Paleoclimate data provide a rich source of information for testing projections of future greenhouse trends. This paper summarizes the present state-of-the-art as to assessments of two important climate problems. (1) Validation of climate models - The same climate models that have been used to make greenhouse forecasts have also been used for paleoclimate simulations. Comparisons of model results and observations indicate some impressive successes but also some cases where there are significant divergences between models and observations. However, special conditions associated with the impressive successes could lead to a false confidence in the models; disagreements are a topic of greater concern. It remains to be determined whether the disagreements are due to model limitations or uncertainties in geologic data. (2) Role of CO 2 as a significant climate feedback: Paleoclimate studies indicate that the climate system is generally more sensitive than our ability to model it. Addition or subtraction of CO 2 leads to a closer agreement between models and observations. In this respect paleoclimate results in general support the conclusion that CO 2 is an important climate feedback, with the magnitude of the feedback approximately comparable to the sensitivity of present climate models. If the CO 2 projections are correct, comparison of the future warming with past warm periods indicate that there may be no geologic analogs for a future warming; the future greenhouse climate may represent a unique climate realization in earth history
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Present status and future project on hadron physics with KEK proton synchrotron
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Masaike, Akira
1984-01-01
Recent experimental results on hadron physics using a 12 GeV proton synchrotron at KEK are presented. Several future projects which have been proposed as a post-shutdown program from 1985 including hypernuclear physics, physics with polarized beam and heavy ion beam are also reported. (author)
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Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao
2017-12-01
The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.
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Human mortality effects of future concentrations of tropospheric ozone
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
West, J.; Szopa, S.; Hauglustaine, D.A.
2007-01-01
Here we explore the effects of projected future changes in global ozone concentrations on premature human mortality, under three scenarios for 2030. We use daily surface ozone concentrations from a global atmospheric transport and chemistry model, and ozone-mortality relationships from daily time-series studies. The population-weighted annual average 8-h daily maximum ozone is projected to increase, relative to the present, in each of ten world regions under the SRES A2 scenario and the current legislation (CLE) scenario, with the largest growth in tropical regions, while decreases are projected in each region in the maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenario. Emission reductions in the CLE scenario, relative to A2, are estimated to reduce about 190,000 premature human mortalities globally in 2030, with the most avoided mortalities in Africa. The MFR scenario will avoid about 460,000 premature mortalities relative to A2 in 2030, and 270,000 relative to CLE, with the greatest reductions in South Asia. (authors)
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Blake L. Spady
2014-10-01
Full Text Available Carbon dioxide (CO2 levels projected to occur in the oceans by the end of this century cause a range of behavioural effects in fish, but whether other highly active marine organisms, such as cephalopods, are similarly affected is unknown. We tested the effects of projected future CO2 levels (626 and 956 µatm on the behaviour of male two-toned pygmy squid, Idiosepius pygmaeus. Exposure to elevated CO2 increased the number of active individuals by 19–25% and increased movement (number of line-crosses by nearly 3 times compared to squid at present-day CO2. Squid vigilance and defensive behaviours were also altered by elevated CO2 with >80% of individuals choosing jet escape responses over defensive arm postures in response to a visual startle stimulus, compared with 50% choosing jet escape responses at control CO2. In addition, more escape responses were chosen over threat behaviours in body pattern displays at elevated CO2 and individuals were more than twice as likely to use ink as a defence strategy at 956 µatm CO2, compared with controls. Increased activity could lead to adverse effects on energy budgets as well as increasing visibility to predators. A tendency to respond to a stimulus with escape behaviours could increase survival, but may also be energetically costly and could potentially lead to more chases by predators compared with individuals that use defensive postures. These results demonstrate that projected future ocean acidification affects the behaviours of a tropical squid species.
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Summaries and future projections
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Egelstaff, P.A.
1989-01-01
In this paper the author gives a brief summary of this meeting. He discusses the status at the current neutron sources and future sources. The current problems with targets, moderators, performance of storage rings and shields are briefly mentioned. Finally, he speculates on the prospects of neutron sources for the future and gives his version of the ultimate source
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Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure
Bouwer, L.M.
2013-01-01
Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but
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Planned Change in Future Models of Project Follow Through: A Concept Paper.
Simpkins, Edward; Brown, Asa
The three chapters included in this paper establish a basis for organizing future implementations of Project Follow Through. Specifically, chapter 1 identifies four planning objectives for coordinating such programs. Emphasis is given to the need to focus on one fundamental, pervasive variable possibly accounting for program success: time…
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HFCs contribution to the greenhouse effect. Present and projected estimations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Libre, J.M.; Elf-Atochem, S.A. [Central Research & Development, Paris (France)
1997-12-31
This paper reviews data that can be used to calculate hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) contribution to the greenhouse effect and compare it to other trace gas contributions. Projections are made for 2010 and 2100 on the basis of available emission scenarios. Industrial judgement on the likelihood of those scenarios is also developed. Calculations can be made in two different ways: from Global Warming Potential weighted emissions of species or by direct calculation of radiative forcing based on measured and projected atmospheric concentrations of compounds. Results show that HFCs corresponding to commercial uses have a negligible contribution to the greenhouse effect in comparison with other trace gases. The projected contributions are also very small even if very high emission scenarios are maintained for decades. In 2010 this contribution remains below 1%. Longer term emissions projections are difficult. However, based on the IPCC scenario IS92a, in spite of huge emissions projected for the year 2100, the HFC contribution remains below 3%. Actually many factors indicate that the real UFC contribution to the greenhouse effect will be even smaller than presented here. Low emissive systems and small charges will likely improve sharply in the future and have drastically improved in the recent past. HFC technology implementation is likely to grow in the future, reach a maximum before the middle of the next century; the market will stabilise driven by recycling, closing of systems and competitive technologies. This hypothesis is supported by previous analysis of the demand for HTCs type applications which can be represented by {open_quotes}S{close_quotes} type curves and by recent analysis indicating that the level of substitution of old products by HFCs is growing slowly. On the basis of those data and best industrial judgement, the contribution of HFCs to the greenhouse effect is highly likely to remain below 1% during the next century. 11 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.
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Balancing energy, development and climate priorities in India. Current trends and future projections
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Dhar, S.; Halsnaes, K.
2007-09-01
This report gives a short introduction to the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing countries. Furthermore, the report analyses Indian energy, development and climate change, followed by an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. The focus is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. (BA)
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Projection displays and MEMS: timely convergence for a bright future
Hornbeck, Larry J.
1995-09-01
Projection displays and microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) have evolved independently, occasionally crossing paths as early as the 1950s. But the commercially viable use of MEMS for projection displays has been illusive until the recent invention of Texas Instruments Digital Light Processing TM (DLP) technology. DLP technology is based on the Digital Micromirror DeviceTM (DMD) microchip, a MEMS technology that is a semiconductor digital light switch that precisely controls a light source for projection display and hardcopy applications. DLP technology provides a unique business opportunity because of the timely convergence of market needs and technology advances. The world is rapidly moving to an all- digital communications and entertainment infrastructure. In the near future, most of the technologies necessary for this infrastrucutre will be available at the right performance and price levels. This will make commercially viable an all-digital chain (capture, compression, transmission, reception decompression, hearing, and viewing). Unfortunately, the digital images received today must be translated into analog signals for viewing on today's televisions. Digital video is the final link in the all-digital infrastructure and DLP technoogy provides that link. DLP technology is an enabler for digital, high-resolution, color projection displays that have high contrast, are bright, seamless, and have the accuracy of color and grayscale that can be achieved only by digital control. This paper contains an introduction to DMD and DLP technology, including the historical context from which to view their developemnt. The architecture, projection operation, and fabrication are presented. Finally, the paper includes an update about current DMD business opportunities in projection displays and hardcopy.
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Brack, Werner; Altenburger, Rolf; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Krauss, Martin; López Herráez, David; van Gils, Jos; Slobodnik, Jaroslav; Munthe, John; Gawlik, Bernd Manfred; van Wezel, Annemarie; Schriks, Merijn; Hollender, Juliane; Tollefsen, Knut Erik; Mekenyan, Ovanes; Dimitrov, Saby; Bunke, Dirk; Cousins, Ian; Posthuma, Leo; van den Brink, Paul J; López de Alda, Miren; Barceló, Damià; Faust, Michael; Kortenkamp, Andreas; Scrimshaw, Mark; Ignatova, Svetlana; Engelen, Guy; Massmann, Gudrun; Lemkine, Gregory; Teodorovic, Ivana; Walz, Karl-Heinz; Dulio, Valeria; Jonker, Michiel T O; Jäger, Felix; Chipman, Kevin; Falciani, Francesco; Liska, Igor; Rooke, David; Zhang, Xiaowei; Hollert, Henner; Vrana, Branislav; Hilscherova, Klara; Kramer, Kees; Neumann, Steffen; Hammerbacher, Ruth; Backhaus, Thomas; Mack, Juliane; Segner, Helmut; Escher, Beate; de Aragão Umbuzeiro, Gisela
2015-01-15
SOLUTIONS (2013 to 2018) is a European Union Seventh Framework Programme Project (EU-FP7). The project aims to deliver a conceptual framework to support the evidence-based development of environmental policies with regard to water quality. SOLUTIONS will develop the tools for the identification, prioritisation and assessment of those water contaminants that may pose a risk to ecosystems and human health. To this end, a new generation of chemical and effect-based monitoring tools is developed and integrated with a full set of exposure, effect and risk assessment models. SOLUTIONS attempts to address legacy, present and future contamination by integrating monitoring and modelling based approaches with scenarios on future developments in society, economy and technology and thus in contamination. The project follows a solutions-oriented approach by addressing major problems of water and chemicals management and by assessing abatement options. SOLUTIONS takes advantage of the access to the infrastructure necessary to investigate the large basins of the Danube and Rhine as well as relevant Mediterranean basins as case studies, and puts major efforts on stakeholder dialogue and support. Particularly, the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) Common Implementation Strategy (CIS) working groups, International River Commissions, and water works associations are directly supported with consistent guidance for the early detection, identification, prioritisation, and abatement of chemicals in the water cycle. SOLUTIONS will give a specific emphasis on concepts and tools for the impact and risk assessment of complex mixtures of emerging pollutants, their metabolites and transformation products. Analytical and effect-based screening tools will be applied together with ecological assessment tools for the identification of toxicants and their impacts. The SOLUTIONS approach is expected to provide transparent and evidence-based candidates or River Basin Specific Pollutants in the case
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Irradiation project of SiC/SiC fuel pin 'INSPIRE': Status and future plan
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kohyama, Akira; Kishimoto, Hirotatsu
2015-01-01
After the March 11 Disaster in East-Japan, Research and Development towards Ensuring Nuclear Safety Enhancement for LWR becomes a top priority R and D in nuclear energy policy of Japan. The role of high temperature non-metallic materials, such as SiC/SiC, is becoming important for the advanced nuclear reactor systems. SiC fibre reinforced SiC composite has been recognised to be the most attractive option for the future, now, METI fund based project, INSPIRE, has been launched as 5-year termed project at OASIS in Muroran Institute of Technology aiming at early realisation of this system. INSPIRE is the irradiation project of SiC/SiC fuel pins aiming to accumulate material, thermal, irradiation effect data of NITE-SiC/SiC in BWR environment. Nuclear fuel inserted SiC/SiC fuel pins are planned to be installed in the Halden reactor. The project includes preparing the NITE-SiC/SiC tubes, joining of end caps, preparation of rigs to control the irradiation environment to BWR condition and the instruments to measure the condition of rigs and pins in operation. Also, basic neutron irradiation data will be accumulated by SiC/SiC coupon samples currently under irradiation in BR2. The output from this project may present the potentiality of NITE-SiC/SiC fuel cladding with the first stage fuel-cladding interaction. (authors)
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Huber-Garcia, Verena; Akinsete, Ebun; Gampe, David; Ker Rault, Philippe; Kok, Kasper; Koundouri, Phoebe; Luttik, Joke; Nikulin, Grigory; Pistocchi, Alberto; Souliotis, Ioannis; Ludwig, Ralf
2017-04-01
Water and water-related services are major components of the human wellbeing, and as such are major factors of socio-economic development; yet freshwater systems are under threat by a variety of stressors (organic and inorganic pollution, geomorphological alterations, land cover change, water abstraction, invasive species and pathogens). Water scarcity is most commonly associated with inappropriate water management and resulting river flow reductions. It has become one of the most important drivers of change in freshwater ecosystems. Conjoint occurrence of a myriad of stressors (chemical, geomorphological, biological) under water scarcity will produce novel and unfamiliar synergies and most likely very pronounced effects. Stressors are hierarchically arranged in terms of intensity, frequency and scale, and their effects can be predicted to be from transient to irreversible. Most ecosystems are simulta¬neously exposed to multiple-stress situations. Within the scope of the GLOBAQUA project the effects of multiple stressors on aquatic ecosystems in selected river basins across Europe with a focus on areas suffering from water scarcity are analyzed. In addition, management strategies are improved and adapted with the aim of inhibiting adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems and ensuring the supply with water for all purposes in the study areas also in the future. Policy relevant implications will be given to ensure a best possible status of these aquatic ecosystems also under future conditions. In this context, land use and land cover as well as the meteorological conditions can be seen as two main stressors for the quality and quantity of surface and subsurface water. These factors considerably affect the use and availability of water, especially in regions which already experience water scarcity. If the problem is not addressed correctly, negative effects on biodiversity, water supply as well as important economic consequences may arise. In Europe, many fresh water
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Model Projections of Future Fluvial Sediment Delivery to Major Deltas Under Environmental Change
Darby, S. E.; Dunn, F.; Nicholls, R. J.; Cohen, S.; Zarfl, C.
2017-12-01
Deltas are important hot spots for climate change impacts on which over half a billion people live worldwide. Most of the world's deltas are sinking as a result of natural and anthropogenic subsidence and due to eustatic sea level rise. The ability to predict rates of delta aggradation is therefore critical to assessments of the extent to which sedimentation can potentially offset sea level rise, but our ability to make such predictions is severely hindered by a lack of insight into future trends of the fluvial sediment load supplied to their deltas by feeder watersheds. To address this gap we investigate fluvial sediment fluxes under future environmental change for a selection (47) of the world's major river deltas. Specifically, we employed the numerical model WBMsed to project future variations in mean annual fluvial sediment loads under a range of environmental change scenarios that account for changes in climate, socio-economics and dam construction. Our projections indicate a clear decrease (by 34 to 41% on average, depending on the specific scenario) in future fluvial sediment supply to most of the 47 deltas. These reductions in sediment delivery are driven primarily by anthropogenic disturbances, with reservoir construction being the most influential factor globally. Our results indicate the importance of developing new management strategies for reservoir construction and operation.
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Review on the Projections of Future Storminess over the North Atlantic European Region
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tina Mölter
2016-04-01
Full Text Available This is an overview of the results from previously published climate modeling studies reporting on projected aspects of future storminess over the North Atlantic European region (NAER in the period 2020–2190. Changes in storminess are summarized for seven subregions in the study area and rated by a categorical evaluation scheme that takes into account emission scenarios and modeling complexity in the reviewed studies. Although many of the reviewed studies reported an increase in the intensity of high-impact wind speed and extreme cyclone frequency in the second half of the 21st century, the projections of aspects of future storminess over the NAER differed regionally. There is broad consensus that the frequency and intensity of storms, cyclones, and high-impact wind speed will increase over Central and Western Europe, and these changes will probably have the potential to produce more damage. In contrast, future extratropical storminess over Southern Europe is very likely to decrease. For Northern and Eastern Europe the results of the evaluation are inconclusive, because there is an indication of increasing as well as decreasing development of the evaluated aspects of future storminess. Concerning the storm track, we found indications of a likely north- and eastward shift in most assessed studies. Results from three studies suggest a northeastward shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation.
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Projecting future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests
Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K.; Flanagan, S.; Rourke, O.; Negron Juarez, R. I.
2011-12-01
In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial recent progress has been made to estimate the biomass loss and resulting carbon emissions caused by hurricanes impacting the U.S. Additionally, efforts to evaluate the net effects of hurricanes on the regional carbon balance have demonstrated the importance of viewing large disturbance events in the broader context of recovery from a mosaic of past events. Viewed over sufficiently long time scales and large spatial scales, regrowth from previous storms may largely offset new emissions; however, changes in number, strength or spatial distribution of extreme disturbance events will result in changes to the equilibrium state of the ecosystem and have the potential to result in a lasting carbon source or sink. Many recent studies have linked climate change to changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. In this study, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by scenarios of future hurricane activity based on historic activity and future climate projections, to evaluate how changes in hurricane frequency, intensity and spatial distribution could affect regional carbon storage and flux over the coming century. We find a non-linear response where increased storm activity reduces standing biomass stocks reducing the impacts of future events. This effect is highly dependent on the spatial pattern and repeat interval of future hurricane activity. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Laursen, Markus; Svejvig, Per
2016-01-01
This paper aims to take stock of what we know about project value creation and to present future directions for research and practice. We performed an explorative and unstructured literature review, which was subsequently paired with a structured literature review. We join several research areas...... by adopting the project value creation perspective on literature relating to benefits, value, performance, and success in projects. Our review includes 111 contributions analyzed through both an inductive and deductive approach. We find that relevant literature dates back to the early 1980s, and the still...... developing value-centric view has been the subject of many publications in recent years. We contribute to research on project value creation through four directions for future research: rejuvenating value management through combining value, benefits, and costs; supplementing value creation with value capture...
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Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia
Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.
2013-12-01
Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iimoto, Takeshi; Fujimoto, Noboru; Nakamura, Takashi
2014-01-01
This is a report of the project of MEXT(The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology) to support high school students researching radiation etc. This subject research consists of an exchange meeting, independence research, and a presentation meeting of the results. Media introduced the project and this was a very reputable project. However, regrettably this support project was broken off in the business year of 2012. In this document, the outline of the support project for seven years is introduced and the possibility of future deployment is discussed. (author)
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Projecting future mortality in the Netherlands taking into account mortality delay and smoking
Janssen, F.; de Beer, J.A.A.
2016-01-01
Estimates of future mortality often prove inaccurate as conventional extrapolative mortality projection methods do not capture the impact of smoking nor the mortality delay: the shift in the age-at-death distribution towards older ages. The added value of incorporating information on smoking into
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Patrick Gonzalez; Antonio Lara; Jorge Gayoso; Eduardo Neira; Patricio Romero; Leonardo Sotomayor
2005-07-14
evaluate the three methods to project future baseline carbon emissions. Extrapolation from Landsat change detection uses the observed rate of change to estimate change in the near future. Geomod is a software program that models the geographic distribution of change using a defined rate of change. FRCA is an integrated spatial analysis of forest inventory, biodiversity, and remote sensing that produces estimates of forest biodiversity and forest carbon density, spatial data layers of future probabilities of reforestation and deforestation, and a projection of future baseline forest carbon sequestration and emissions for an ecologically-defined area of analysis. For the period 1999-2012, extrapolation from Landsat change detection estimated a loss of 5000 ha and 520,000 t carbon from closed natural forest; Geomod modeled a loss of 2500 ha and 250 000 t; FRCA projected a loss of 4700 {+-} 100 ha and 480,000 t (maximum 760,000 t, minimum 220,000 t). Concerning labor time, extrapolation for Landsat required 90 actual days or 120 days normalized to Bachelor degree level wages; Geomod required 240 actual days or 310 normalized days; FRCA required 110 actual days or 170 normalized days. Users experienced difficulties with an MS-DOS version of Geomod before turning to the Idrisi version. For organizations with limited time and financing, extrapolation from Landsat change provides a cost-effective method. Organizations with more time and financing could use FRCA, the only method where that calculates the deforestation rate as a dependent variable rather than assuming a deforestation rate as an independent variable. This research indicates that best practices for the projection of baseline carbon emissions include integration of forest inventory and remote sensing tasks from the beginning of the analysis, definition of an analysis area using ecological characteristics, use of standard and widely used geographic information systems (GIS) software applications, and the use of species
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Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.
2014-09-01
A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
2017-12-01
This report is the first in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multiyear research project to explore widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. More specifically, the EFS is designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in all major economic sectors as well as electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and the economic and environmental implications of widespread electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multiyear duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report released on its own timeframe.
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Software Support for the Classical, Contemporary and Future Project Management
Jakov Crnkovic; Peter Ross; Sanjay Desai
2006-01-01
The volume and complexity of Project Management (PM) raises many questions for managers. What exactly are we managing? People? Performance? Efficiency? Effectiveness? Cost? Time? At what levels do projects become challenging and worthy of significant management attention? Can some projects be left on auto-pilot? Must others be managed more aggressively? What metrics are useful in Project Management? How can they be integrated with normal performance metrics in the organization? How can metric...
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The Midwifery Legacies Project: history, progress, and future directions.
Moore-Davis, Tonia L; McGee, Karen B; Moore, Elaine M; Paine, Lisa L
2015-01-01
The Midwifery Legacies Project, formerly known as the OnGoing Group, was founded as an annual greeting card outreach aimed at maintaining contact with midwives as they approached retirement and beyond. In 2009, the importance of documenting personal and professional stories of midwives arose out of a bequest by a midwife who was relatively unknown outside of the community she served. The result has been the evolution of a robust collection of stories, which are known as the 20th Century Midwife Story Collection. Between 2009 and 2014, more than 120 US midwives aged 65 years or older were interviewed by a midwife, a student midwife, or a professional filmmaker. Collectively, these midwives' stories offer an intimate snapshot of the social, political, and cultural influences that have shaped US midwifery during the past half century. Individually, the stories honor and recognize midwives' contributions to the profession and the women they have served. This article details the development, progress, and future directions of the Midwifery Legacies Project. © 2015 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.
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Chernobyl Studies Project - working group 7.0 environmental transport and health effects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hendrickson, S.M.
1994-01-01
The DOE-funded Chernobyl Studies Project was begun as part of a cooperative agreement between the US and the former USSR, (quote) To develop jointly methods to project rapidly the health effects of any future reactor accident (quote). Most of the initial tasks for this project are completed or near completion. The focus has now turned primarily to the issue of health effects from the Chernobyl accident. Currently, we are extensively engaged in case-control and cohort studies of thyroid diseases among Belarussian children and in the Ukraine. A major part of the effort is providing methods and applications of dose reconstruction and providing support and equipment for the medical teams. This document contains reports on progress in the following task areas: Management; External Dose; Hydrological Transport; Chromosome Painting Dosimetry; Stochastic Effects; Thyroid Studies; and Leukemia Studies
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Future Projections and Consequences of the Changing North American Carbon Cycle
Huntzinger, D. N.; Cooley, S. R.; Moore, D. J.
2017-12-01
The rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily due to human-caused fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere. Nevertheless, today's atmospheric CO2 levels are higher than at any time in the past 800,000 years. Over the past decade, there has been considerable effort to understand how carbon cycle changes interact with, and influence, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and thus climate. Here, we summarize the key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and the consequences of these changes as reported in Chapters 17 and 19 of the 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, plant growth, and water-use efficiency. Together, these may lead to changes in vegetation composition, carbon storage, hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. In the ocean, increased uptake of atmospheric CO2 causes ocean acidification, which leads to changes in reproduction, survival, and growth of many marine species. These direct physiological responses to acidification are likely to have indirect ecosystem-scale consequences that we are just beginning to understand. In all environments, the effects of rising CO2 also interact with other global changes. For example, nutrient availability can set limits on growth and a warming climate alters carbon uptake depending on a number of other factors. As a result, there is low confidence in the future evolution of the North American carbon cycle. For example, models project that terrestrial ecosystems could continue to be a net sink (of up to 1.19 PgC yr-1) or switch to a net source of carbon to the atmosphere (of up to 0.60 PgC yr-1) by the end of the century under business-as-usual emission scenarios. And, while North American coastal areas have historically been a sink of carbon (e.g., 2.6 to 3.5 PgC since 1995) and are projected to continue to take up
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Murakami, Hiroyuki [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)/Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States); Mizuta, Ryo; Shindo, Eiki [Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Climate Research Department, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)
2012-11-15
Uncertainties in projected future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are investigated using future (2075-2099) ensemble projections of global warming under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Twelve ensemble experiments are performed using three different cumulus convection schemes and four different assumptions for prescribed future sea surface temperatures (SSTs). All ensemble experiments consistently project significant reductions in global and hemispheric TC genesis numbers as well as reductions in TC frequency of occurrence (TCF) and TC genesis frequency (TGF) in the western North Pacific, South Indian Ocean, and South Pacific Ocean. TCF and TGF are projected to increase over the central Pacific which is consistent with the findings of Li et al. (2010). Inter-experimental variations of projected future changes in TGF and TC genesis number are caused mainly by differences in large-scale dynamical parameters and SST anomalies. Thermodynamic parameters are of secondary importance for variations in TGF and TC genesis number. These results imply that differences in SST spatial patterns can cause substantial variations and uncertainties in projected future changes of TGF and TC numbers at ocean-basin scales. (orig.)
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Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P; Kunst, Anton E
2011-04-01
Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild disability is not. Using data from the GLOBE study (Gezondheid en Levensomstandigheden Bevolking Eindhoven en omstreken), the association of three levels of self-reported disabilities in activities of daily living with age and proximity to death was studied using logistic regression models. Regression estimates were used to estimate the number of life years with disability for life spans of 75 and 85 years. Odds ratios of 0.976 (not significant) for mild disability, 1.137 for moderate disability, and 1.231 for severe disability showed a stronger effect of proximity to death for more severe levels of disability. A 10-year increase of life span was estimated to result in a substantial expansion of mild disability (4.6 years) compared with a small expansion of moderate (0.7 years) and severe (0.9 years) disability. These findings support the theory of a dynamic equilibrium. Projections of the future burden of disability could be substantially improved by connecting to this theory and incorporating information on proximity to death. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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History of optical theory of reflecting telescopes and implications for future projects
Wilson, Raymond N.
1997-03-01
This contribution, The History of Optical Theory of Reflecting Telescopes and Implications for Future Projects, is a shortened form of the Karl Schwarzschild lecture given in Bochum in September 1993. Some material has been added from an invited paper given in Padua in December 1992. For a full account, with figures and tables, the reader is referred to these two papers.
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How Effective Leaders Harness the Future.
Souba, Wiley; Souba, Matthew
2018-02-01
Human beings are fundamentally future oriented. Most of our decisions and undertakings are for the sake of a future to which we are committed or obligated. This future orientation is essential to effective leadership in health care, especially during this time of significant reform, when people are at risk of becoming cynical and disengaged. Conventional thinking holds that our effectiveness as leaders is primarily a function of what we have learned in the past-our knowledge, expertise, and experience. In contrast, the emerging model contends that our effectiveness is also a function of how the future (outcome) of our leadership challenges "shows up" for us. If, despite daunting circumstances, we can "see" an aspired future ahead, we are more likely to commit and engage. Our story of the future becomes the "narrative frame" through which we see and tackle leadership challenges today. Because organizations are fundamentally networks of conversations, an organization's ability to create new language practices is tantamount to its ability to evolve. What makes the future compelling is the embodiment of our deepest convictions and ideals in our image of the future. Because health care reform has challenged the medical profession along the entire spectrum of its traditional values and roles, working toward a unifying vision of the future has been difficult. To enroll others in creating a better future, effective leaders must underscore the purpose and importance of their work and motivate them with inspiring stories.
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Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Yu, Weiwei; Tong, Shilu
2015-02-01
Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Past and future of the Austrian snow cover - results from the CC-Snow project
Strasser, Ulrich; Marke, Thomas; Hanzer, Florian; Ragg, Hansjörg; Kleindienst, Hannes; Wilcke, Renate; Gobiet, Andreas
2013-04-01
This study has the goal to simulate the evolution of the Austrian snow cover from 1971 to 2050 by means of a coupled modelling scheme, and to estimate the effect of climate change on the evolution of the natural snow cover. The model outcomes are interepreted with focus on both the future natural snow conditions, and the effects on winter skiing tourism. Therefore the regional temperature-index snow model SNOWREG is applied, providing snow maps with a spatial resolution of 250 m. The model is trained by means of assimilating local measurements and observed natural snow cover patterns. Meteorological forcing consists of the output of four realizations of the ENSEMBLES project for the A1B emission scenario. The meteorological variables are downscaled and error corrected with a quantile based empirical-statistical method on a daily time basis. The control simulation is 1971-2000, and the scenario simulation 2021-2050. Spatial interpolation is performed on the basis of parameter-elevation relations. We compare the four different global/regional climate model combinations and their effect on the snow modelling, and we explain the patterns of the resulting snow cover by means of regional climatological characteristics. The provinces Tirol and Styria serve as test regions, being typical examples for the two climatic subregions of Austria. To support the interpretation of the simulation results we apply indicators which enable to define meaningful measures for the comparison of the different periods and regions. Results show that the mean duration of the snow cover will decrease by 15 to 30 days per winter season, mostly in elevations between 2000 and 2500 m. Above 3000 m the higher winter precipitation can compensate this effect, and mean snow cover duration may even slightly increase. We also investigate the local scale by application of the physically based mountain snow model AMUNDSEN. This model is capable of producing 50 m resolution output maps for indicators
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Projecting climate effects on birds and reptiles of the Southwestern United States
van Riper, Charles; Hatten, James R.; Giermakowski, J. Tomasz; Mattson, David; Holmes, Jennifer A.; Johnson, Matthew J.; Nowak, Erika M.; Ironside, Kirsten; Peters, Michael; Heinrich, Paul; Cole, K.L.; Truettner, C.; Schwalbe, Cecil R.
2014-01-01
are presently considered candidates for prospective endangerment. We project range losses of over 40 percent, from its current extent of occurrence, for the plateau striped whiptail, Arizona black rattlesnake, and common lesser earless lizard. Currently, these reptile species are thought to be common or at least locally abundant throughout their ranges. The total contribution of plants in each distribution model was very small, but models that contained at least one plant always outperformed models with only physical variables (climatic or landscape). The magnitude of change in projected range increased further into the future, especially when a plant was in the model. Among bird species, those that had the strongest association with a landscape feature during the breeding season, such as terrain ruggedness and insolation, exhibited the smallest contractions in projected breeding range in the future. In contrast, bird species that had weak associations with landscape features, but strong climatic associations, suffered the greatest breeding range contractions. Thus, landscape effects appeared to buffer some of the negative effects of climate change for some species. Among bird species, magnitude of change in projected breeding range was positively related to the annual average temperature of their baseline distribution, thus species with the warmest breeding ranges exhibited the greatest changes in future breeding ranges. This pattern was not evident for reptiles, but might exist if additional species were included in the model. Our results provide managers with a series of projected range maps that will enable scientists, concerned citizens, and wildlife managers to identify what the potential effects of climate change will be on bird and reptile distributions in the Western United States. We hope that our results can be used in proactive ways to mitigate some of the potential effects of climate change on selected species.
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Aligning BIM with FM: streamlining the process for future projects
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Colleen Kasprzak
2012-12-01
Full Text Available A study performed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST, USA in 2004 found that owners account for approximately $10.6 billion of the $15.8 billion total inadequate interoperability costs of U.S. capital facility projects in 2002. Because of these inefficiency costs, it becomes vital that information produced during the design and construction phases of a project be transferred into operations with maximum leverage to the end users. However, very few owners have defined these informational needs or developed an integration strategy into existing maintenance management systems. To increase operational efficiency, an organization must first develop an understanding of their operating systems, as well as identify how Building Information Modeling (BIM will add value to their daily tasks. The Pennsylvania State University (PSU has a unique opportunity to diversely implement BIM processes because not only does the University act as an owner, but also as designer and construction manager on the majority of projects. The struggle that PSU faces is one that is unique only to owners with a large, existing, multifaceted building inventory. This paper outlines the current initiative by the Office of Physical Plant (OPP, the asset manager at PSU, to develop an information exchange framework between BIM and FM applications to be used internally. As a result of this research, PSU has been able to define owner operational requirements for future projects and develop a flexible integration framework to support additional BIM tasks and information exchanges.
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Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf
2018-06-01
Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.
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Earth BioGenome Project: Sequencing life for the future of life.
Lewin, Harris A; Robinson, Gene E; Kress, W John; Baker, William J; Coddington, Jonathan; Crandall, Keith A; Durbin, Richard; Edwards, Scott V; Forest, Félix; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Goldstein, Melissa M; Grigoriev, Igor V; Hackett, Kevin J; Haussler, David; Jarvis, Erich D; Johnson, Warren E; Patrinos, Aristides; Richards, Stephen; Castilla-Rubio, Juan Carlos; van Sluys, Marie-Anne; Soltis, Pamela S; Xu, Xun; Yang, Huanming; Zhang, Guojie
2018-04-24
Increasing our understanding of Earth's biodiversity and responsibly stewarding its resources are among the most crucial scientific and social challenges of the new millennium. These challenges require fundamental new knowledge of the organization, evolution, functions, and interactions among millions of the planet's organisms. Herein, we present a perspective on the Earth BioGenome Project (EBP), a moonshot for biology that aims to sequence, catalog, and characterize the genomes of all of Earth's eukaryotic biodiversity over a period of 10 years. The outcomes of the EBP will inform a broad range of major issues facing humanity, such as the impact of climate change on biodiversity, the conservation of endangered species and ecosystems, and the preservation and enhancement of ecosystem services. We describe hurdles that the project faces, including data-sharing policies that ensure a permanent, freely available resource for future scientific discovery while respecting access and benefit sharing guidelines of the Nagoya Protocol. We also describe scientific and organizational challenges in executing such an ambitious project, and the structure proposed to achieve the project's goals. The far-reaching potential benefits of creating an open digital repository of genomic information for life on Earth can be realized only by a coordinated international effort.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. H. Syafrina
2014-09-01
Full Text Available A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF. New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081–2100. The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10–40 years.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marilia Frassetto de Araujo
2016-04-01
Full Text Available This research aimed to understand how the "future project" regarding the socio-affective dimension is built by high school students in Portugal and in Brazil. The project was based on the concept of culture and adolescence as a cultural construction. The definition of future project was adopted in the above mentioned dimension characterized by defining affections and passions. Through focus groups with adolescents it was possible to analyze their narratives about the future project on the socio-affective dimension; to get to know the speeches produced by them on issues regarding sexuality, gender and and sexual diversity. The survey found out that most adolescents had projects for their future. Moreover, it pointed out the differences that permeate several boys’ and girls’ behaviors. It was concluded that the questioning of these issues from ethical questions that allow teenagers to reflect on their relationships among peers, in the community, with family, responsibility and criticality is essential. And education is central to this process.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pausader, M.; Parey, S.; Nogaj, M. [EDF/R and D, Chatou Cedex (France); Bernie, D. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
2012-03-15
In order to take into account uncertainties in the future climate projections there is a growing demand for probabilistic projections of climate change. This paper presents a methodology for producing such a probabilistic analysis of future temperature extremes. The 20- and 100-years return levels are obtained from that of the normalized variable and the changes in mean and standard deviation given by climate models for the desired future periods. Uncertainty in future change of these extremes is quantified using a multi-model ensemble and a perturbed physics ensemble. The probability density functions of future return levels are computed at a representative location from the joint probability distribution of mean and standard deviation changes given by the two combined ensembles of models. For the studied location, the 100-years return level at the end of the century is lower than 41 C with an 80% confidence. Then, as the number of model simulations is low to compute a reliable distribution, two techniques proposed in the literature (local pattern scaling and ANOVA) have been used to infer the changes in mean and standard deviation for the combinations of RCM and GCM which have not been run. The ANOVA technique leads to better results for the reconstruction of the mean changes, whereas the two methods fail to correctly infer the changes in standard deviation. As standard deviation change has a major impact on return level change, there is a need to improve the models and the different techniques regarding the variance changes. (orig.)
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Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.
2007-01-01
-90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Petersen, K.L.
1993-10-01
The Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program was organized to develop an in-place disposal capability for low-level nuclear waste for the US Department of Energy at the Hanford Site in south-eastern Washington. Layered earthen and engineered barriers are being developed by Westinghouse Hanford Company and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory that will function in what is presently a semiarid environment (annual precipitation 150 mm) for at least 1,000 yr by limiting the infiltration of water through the waste. The Long-Term Climate Change Task is one of several key barrier tasks. Based on the recommendation of a panel of internationally recognized climate and modeling experts, climatic data for this task is being acquired in a step-wise and multi-disciplinary manner. The specific research strategy includes literature review and specialized studies to obtain pollen-derived climatic reconstruction, documented historic weather patterns, and Global Circulation Model output of potential future climate changes related to both the greenhouse effect and the cycling into the next ice age. The specific goals of the task are to: (1) obtain defensible probabilistic projections of the long-term climate variability in the Hanford Site region at many different time scales into the future, (2) develop several test case climate scenarios that bracket the range of potential future climate, and (3) use the climate scenarios both to test and to model protective barrier performance.
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Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.
2017-10-01
Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.
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Innovation projects and visions on the future : Ambition and commitment in the Agropark case
Hoes, Anne Charlotte; Regeer, Barbara; Zweekhorst, Marjolein
2012-01-01
Since the 1980s, Dutch agricultural policy focuses on changing the agricultural sector into a more sustainable sector. In this article we explore an Agropark visioning initiative and four Agropark innovation projects to provide further understanding in how visions on the future influence innovation
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
LUECK, K.J.
2004-01-01
This report documents an engineering study conducted to evaluate alternatives for treating secondary waste in the secondary treatment train (STT) of the Hanford Site 200 Area Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF). The study evaluates ETF STT treatment alternatives and recommends preferred alternatives for meeting the projected future missions of the ETF. The preferred alternative(s) will process projected future ETF influents to produce a solid waste acceptable for final disposal on the Hanford Site. The main text of this report summarizes the ETF past and projected operations, lists the assumptions about projected operations that provide the basis for the engineering evaluation, and summarizes the evaluation process. The evaluation process includes identification of available modifications to the current ETF process, screens those modifications for technical viability, evaluates the technically viable alternatives, and provides conclusions and recommendations based on that evaluation
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Flood Frequency Analysis of Future Climate Projections in the Cache Creek Watershed
Fischer, I.; Trihn, T.; Ishida, K.; Jang, S.; Kavvas, E.; Kavvas, M. L.
2014-12-01
Effects of climate change on hydrologic flow regimes, particularly extreme events, necessitate modeling of future flows to best inform water resources management. Future flow projections may be modeled through the joint use of carbon emission scenarios, general circulation models and watershed models. This research effort ran 13 simulations for carbon emission scenarios (taken from the A1, A2 and B1 families) over the 21st century (2001-2100) for the Cache Creek watershed in Northern California. Atmospheric data from general circulation models, CCSM3 and ECHAM5, were dynamically downscaled to a 9 km resolution using MM5, a regional mesoscale model, before being input into the physically based watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model. Ensemble mean and standard deviation of simulated flows describe the expected hydrologic system response. Frequency histograms and cumulative distribution functions characterize the range of hydrologic responses that may occur. The modeled flow results comprise a dataset suitable for time series and frequency analysis allowing for more robust system characterization, including indices such as the 100 year flood return period. These results are significant for water quality management as the Cache Creek watershed is severely impacted by mercury pollution from historic mining activities. Extreme flow events control mercury fate and transport affecting the downstream water bodies of the Sacramento River and Sacramento- San Joaquin Delta which provide drinking water to over 25 million people.
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Projection Effects of Large-scale Structures on Weak-lensing Peak Abundances
Yuan, Shuo; Liu, Xiangkun; Pan, Chuzhong; Wang, Qiao; Fan, Zuhui
2018-04-01
High peaks in weak lensing (WL) maps originate dominantly from the lensing effects of single massive halos. Their abundance is therefore closely related to the halo mass function and thus a powerful cosmological probe. However, besides individual massive halos, large-scale structures (LSS) along lines of sight also contribute to the peak signals. In this paper, with ray-tracing simulations, we investigate the LSS projection effects. We show that for current surveys with a large shape noise, the stochastic LSS effects are subdominant. For future WL surveys with source galaxies having a median redshift z med ∼ 1 or higher, however, they are significant. For the cosmological constraints derived from observed WL high-peak counts, severe biases can occur if the LSS effects are not taken into account properly. We extend the model of Fan et al. by incorporating the LSS projection effects into the theoretical considerations. By comparing with simulation results, we demonstrate the good performance of the improved model and its applicability in cosmological studies.
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The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change
Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.
2013-12-01
At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.
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Flood effects on an Alaskan stream restoration project: the value of long-term monitoring
Densmore, Roseann V.; Karle, Kenneth F.
2009-01-01
On a nationwide basis, few stream restoration projects have long-term programs in place to monitor the effects of floods on channel and floodplain configuration and floodplain vegetation, but long-term and event-based monitoring is required to measure the effects of these stochastic events and to use the knowledge for adaptive management and the design of future projects. This paper describes a long-term monitoring effort (15 years) on a stream restoration project in Glen Creek in Denali National Park and Preserve in Alaska. The stream channel and floodplain of Glen Creek had been severely degraded over a period of 80 years by placer mining for gold, which left many reaches with unstable and incised streambeds without functioning vegetated floodplains. The objectives of the original project, initiated in 1991, were to develop and test methods for the hydraulic design of channel and floodplain morphology and for floodplain stabilization and riparian habitat recovery, and to conduct research and monitoring to provide information for future projects in similar degraded watersheds. Monitoring methods included surveyed stream cross-sections, vegetation plots, and aerial, ground, and satellite photos. In this paper we address the immediate and outlying effects of a 25-year flood on the stream and floodplain geometry and riparian vegetation. The long-term monitoring revealed that significant channel widening occurred following the flood, likely caused by excessive upstream sediment loading and the fairly slow development of floodplain vegetation in this climate. Our results illustrated design flaws, particularly in regard to identification and analysis of sediment sources and the dominant processes of channel adjustment.
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Software Support for the Classical, Contemporary and Future Project Management
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jakov Crnkovic
2006-04-01
Full Text Available The volume and complexity of Project Management (PM raises many questions for managers. What exactly are we managing? People? Performance? Efficiency? Effectiveness? Cost? Time? At what levels do projects become challenging and worthy of significant management attention? Can some projects be left on auto-pilot? Must others be managed more aggressively? What metrics are useful in Project Management? How can they be integrated with normal performance metrics in the organization? How can metrics be built into assessment programs that work? How can projects be monitored, re-planned to stay within the original budget and schedule deadlines? How good is the PM software support? Do we really need PM software packages or it should be the integral part of the company's information system (IS? Where is the knowledge about company's previous projects and performance? Are we able to establish company or even industry wide standards for project management? Can we (or should we move from the PMBOK® guidelines and use other approaches? We discussing important questions in PM: software products, responsibilities for concurrently executing several projects (multi-projects with multi objectives and multiple deadlines, introducing a need for initiation, design, execution, and control using a virtual project management and application of the organizational project maturity model.
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Measurement of software project management effectiveness
Demir, Kadir Alpaslan
2008-01-01
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Evaluating, monitoring, and improving the effectiveness of project management can contribute to successful acquisition of software systems. In this dissertation, we introduce a quantitative metric for gauging the effectiveness of managing a software-development project. The metric may be used to evaluate and monitor project management effectiveness in software projects by project managers, technical managers, executive man...
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Capability and dependency in the Newcastle 85+ cohort study. Projections of future care needs.
Jagger, Carol; Collerton, Joanna C; Davies, Karen; Kingston, Andrew; Robinson, Louise A; Eccles, Martin P; von Zglinicki, Thomas; Martin-Ruiz, Carmen; James, Oliver F W; Kirkwood, Tom B L; Bond, John
2011-05-04
Little is known of the capabilities of the oldest old, the fastest growing age group in the population. We aimed to estimate capability and dependency in a cohort of 85 year olds and to project future demand for care. Structured interviews at age 85 with 841 people born in 1921 and living in Newcastle and North Tyneside, UK who were permanently registered with participating general practices. Measures of capability included were self-reported activities of daily living (ADL), timed up and go test (TUG), standardised mini-mental state examination (SMMSE), and assessment of urinary continence in order to classify interval-need dependency. To project future demand for care the proportion needing 24-hour care was applied to the 2008 England and Wales population projections of those aged 80 years and over by gender. Of participants, 62% (522/841) were women, 77% (651/841) lived in standard housing, 13% (106/841) in sheltered housing and 10% (84/841) in a care home. Overall, 20% (165/841) reported no difficulty with any of the ADLs. Men were more capable in performing ADLs and more independent than women. TUG validated self-reported ADLs. When classified by 'interval of need' 41% (332/810) were independent, 39% (317/810) required help less often than daily, 12% (94/810) required help at regular times of the day and 8% (67/810) required 24-hour care. Of care-home residents, 94% (77/82) required daily help or 24-hour care. Future need for 24-hour care for people aged 80 years or over in England and Wales is projected to increase by 82% from 2010 to 2030 with a demand for 630,000 care-home places by 2030. This analysis highlights the diversity of capability and levels of dependency in this cohort. A remarkably high proportion remain independent, particularly men. However a significant proportion of this population require 24-hour care at home or in care homes. Projections for the next 20 years suggest substantial increases in the number requiring 24-hour care due to
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Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng
2017-08-01
Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.
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Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China
Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng
2017-08-01
Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C. Prudhomme
2012-11-01
Full Text Available The dataset Future Flows Climate was developed as part of the project ''Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications, and to enable climate change uncertainty and climate variability to be accounted for in the assessment of their possible impacts on the environment.
Future Flows Climate is derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE that is part of the basis of UKCP09 and includes projections in available precipitation (water available to hydrological processes after snow and ice storages have been accounted for and potential evapotranspiration. It corresponds to an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1950 to December 2098, each a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3. Data are provided on a 1-km grid over the HadRM3 land areas at a daily (available precipitation and monthly (PE time step as netCDF files.
Because systematic biases in temperature and precipitation were found between HadRM3-PPE and gridded temperature and precipitation observations for the 1962–1991 period, a monthly bias correction procedure was undertaken, based on a linear correction for temperature and a quantile-mapping correction (using the gamma distribution for precipitation followed by a spatial downscaling. Available precipitation was derived from the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature time series using a simple elevation-dependant snow-melt model. Potential evapotranspiration time series were calculated for each month using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equations and bias-corrected temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed from HadRM3-PPE along with latitude of the grid and the day of the year.
Future Flows Climate is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. It is the -
Capital planning for operating theatres based on projecting future theatre requirements.
Sheehan, Jennifer A; Tyler, Peter; Jayasinha, Hirani; Meleady, Kathleen T; Jones, Neill
2011-05-01
During 2006, NSW and ACT Health Departments jointly engaged KPMG to develop an Operating Theatre Requirements' Projection Model and an accompanying planning guideline. A research scan was carried out to identify drivers of surgical demand, theatre capacity and theatre performance, as well as locating existing approaches to modelling operating theatre requirements for planning purposes. The project delivered a Microsoft Excel-based model for projecting future operating theatre requirements, together with an accompanying guideline for use of the model and interpretation of its outputs. It provides a valuable addition to the suite of tools available to Health staff for service and capital planning. The model operates with several limitations, largely due to being data dependent, and the state and completeness of available theatre activity data. However, the operational flexibility built into the model allows users to compensate for these limitations, on a case by case basis, when the user has access to suitable, local data. The design flexibility of the model means that updating the model as improved data become available is not difficult; resulting in revisions being able to be made quickly, and disseminated to users rapidly.
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Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.
2015-01-01
Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.
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Mori, Chisato; Todaka, Emiko
2009-01-01
Recently, we have investigated the relationship between environment and health from a scientific perspective and developed a new academic field, "Sustainable Health Science" that will contribute to creating a healthy environment for future generations. There are three key points in Sustainable Heath Science. The first key point is "focusing on future generations"-society should improve the environment and prevent possible adverse health effects on future generations (Environmental Preventive Medicine). The second key point is the "precautious principle". The third key point is "transdisciplinary science", which means that not only medical science but also other scientific fields, such as architectural and engineering science, should be involved. Here, we introduce our recent challenging project "Chemiless Town Project", in which a model town is under construction with fewer chemicals. In the project, a trial of an education program and a health-examination system of chemical exposure is going to be conducted. In the future, we are aiming to establish health examination of exposure to chemicals of women of reproductive age so that the risk of adverse health effects to future generations will decrease and they can enjoy a better quality of life. We hope that society will accept the importance of forming a sustainable society for future generations not only with regard to chemicals but also to the whole surrounding environment. As the proverb of American native people tells us, we should live considering the effects on seven generations in the future.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haefner, H.U.; Rolff, N.; Thummes, G.
2004-02-01
The project involved the production of a 6W rate at 77K stirling chiller for a HTS telecommunication experiment on the 'International Space Station' (project partner Bosch Telecom) and the production of a prototype long-lived stirling pulsed tube chiller of 10W rate at 77K for future applications in telecommunication. The projected was terminated prematurely. The following results were obtained: 1. The low-capacity chiller 'Mono-Kaltfinger' (stirling cold finger with displacement piston) achieved up to 5.3% COP at 80 K. 2. The chilling capacity was 10 W at 80 K for a maximum compressor uptake of 250 W. 3. An efficient pulsed tube chiller was constructed, as well as 4. A long-lived compressor with flexure bearings. (orig.) [de
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Projection of future climate changes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Boucher, Olivier; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Vial, Jessica; Brun, Eric; Cattiaux, Julien; Chauvin, Fabrice; Salas y Melia, David; Voldoire, Aurore; Bopp, Laurent; Braconnot, Pascale; Ciais, Philippe; Yiou, Pascal; Guilyardi, Eric; Mignot, Juliette; Guivarch, Celine
2015-01-01
Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)
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Klein, Stanley B
2016-01-01
Following the seminal work of Ingvar (1985. "Memory for the future": An essay on the temporal organization of conscious awareness. Human Neurobiology, 4, 127-136), Suddendorf (1994. The discovery of the fourth dimension: Mental time travel and human evolution. Master's thesis. University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand), and Tulving (1985. Memory and consciousness. Canadian Psychology/PsychologieCanadienne, 26, 1-12), exploration of the ability to anticipate and prepare for future contingencies that cannot be known with certainty has grown into a thriving research enterprise. A fundamental tenet of this line of inquiry is that future-oriented mental time travel, in most of its presentations, is underwritten by a property or an extension of episodic recollection. However, a careful conceptual analysis of exactly how episodic memory functions in this capacity has yet to be undertaken. In this paper I conduct such an analysis. Based on conceptual, phenomenological, and empirical considerations, I conclude that the autonoetic component of episodic memory, not episodic memory per se, is the causally determinative factor enabling an individual to project him or herself into a personal future.
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The MY NASA DATA Project: Preparing Future Earth and Environmental Scientists, and Future Citizens
Chambers, L. H.; Phelps, C. S.; Phipps, M.; Holzer, M.; Daugherty, P.; Poling, E.; Vanderlaan, S.; Oots, P. C.; Moore, S. W.; Diones, D. D.
2008-12-01
global Earth System. These armchair explorers learn to unite datasets in a region to learn about places like and unlike where they live. In a world that's becoming smaller and smaller with the aid of technology, projects like MND prepare our students for their global future. A teacher located in an area of California strongly impacted by pollution and potential climate changes noted that this project makes available data that are very relevant to issues that will affect her students' lives. She points out that not all scientific information they currently see is in a form that is understandable to an educated citizen, and that the experience with MND will enable her students to have better than average skills not only for deciphering scientific maps and graphs; but also for creating maps and graphics that successfully convey information to others.
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Status and Future Perspectives of the HIE-Isolde Project at CERN
Kadi, Y; Blumenfeld, Y; Calatroni, S; Catherall, R; Fraser, M A; Goddard, B; Parchet, D; Siesling, E; Venturini Delsolaro, W; Voulot, D; Williams, L R
2012-01-01
The High Intensity and Energy (HIE)-ISOLDE project aims at several important upgrades of the present ISOLDE radioactive beam facility at CERN. The main focus lies in the energy upgrade of the post-accelerated radionuclide beams from 3 MeV/u up to 10 MeV/u through the addition of superconducting cavities. This will open the possibility of many new types of experiments including transfer reactions throughout the nuclear chart. The first stage of this upgrade involves the design, construction, installation and commissioning of two high-β cryomodules downstream of REX-ISOLDE, the existing post-accelerator. Each cryomodule houses five high-β superconducting cavities and one superconducting solenoid. Prototypes of the Nb-sputtered Quarter Wave Resonators (QWRs) cavities for the new superconducting linear accelerator have been manufactured and are undergoing RF cold tests. The project also includes a design study of improved production targets to accommodate to the future increase of proton intensity delivered by ...
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Gombert, Karolina; Douglas, Flora; McArdle, Karen; Carlisle, Sandra
2016-01-01
This article reflects on ethical limitations and dilemmas encountered during fieldwork of the Foodways and Futures project (2013-2016). Foodways and Futures is a qualitative action research project aimed at exploring the food choices of former homeless young people (aged 16-25) in Aberdeenshire. In Scotland, where over 13,000 young people become…
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Onshore wind energy potential over Iberia: present and future projections
Rochinha, Carlos A.; Santos, João A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pinto, Joaquim G.
2014-05-01
Onshore grid-connected wind power generation has been explored for more than three decades in the Iberian Peninsula. Further, increasing attention has been devoted to renewable energy sources in a climate change context. While advantages of wind energy are widely recognized, its distribution is not spatially homogeneous and not uniform throughout the year. Hence, understanding these spatial-temporal distributions is critical in power system planning. The present study aims at assessing the potential power output estimated from 10 m wind components simulated by a regional climate model (CCLM), driven by ERA40 reanalysis. Datasets are available on a grid with a high spatial resolution (approximately 20 km) and over a 40-yr period (1961-2000). Furthermore, several target sites, located in areas with high installed wind generation capacity, are selected for local-to-regional scale assessments. The results show that potential wind power is higher over northern Iberia, mostly in Cantabria and Galicia, while Andalucía and Cataluña record the lowest values. With respect to the intra-annual variability, summer is by far the season with the lowest potential energy outputs. Furthermore, the inter-annual variability reveals an overall downward long-term trend over the 40-yr period, particularly in the winter time series. A CCLM transient experiment, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario, is also discussed for a future period (2041-2070), after a model validation/calibration process (bias corrections). Significant changes in the wind power potential are projected for the future throughout Iberia, but their magnitude largely depends on the locations. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).
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Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement.
van Hooidonk, Ruben; Maynard, Jeffrey; Tamelander, Jerker; Gove, Jamison; Ahmadia, Gabby; Raymundo, Laurie; Williams, Gareth; Heron, Scott F; Planes, Serge
2016-12-21
Increasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited. However, previous model-resolution projections (~1 × 1°) are too coarse to inform conservation planning. To meet the need for higher-resolution projections, we generated statistically downscaled projections (4-km resolution) for all coral reefs; these projections reveal high local-scale variation in ASB. Timing of ASB varies >10 years in 71 of the 87 countries and territories with >500 km 2 of reef area. Emissions scenario RCP4.5 represents lower emissions mid-century than will eventuate if pledges made following the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21) become reality. These pledges do little to provide reefs with more time to adapt and acclimate prior to severe bleaching conditions occurring annually. RCP4.5 adds 11 years to the global average ASB timing when compared to RCP8.5; however, >75% of reefs still experience ASB before 2070 under RCP4.5. Coral reef futures clearly vary greatly among and within countries, indicating the projections warrant consideration in most reef areas during conservation and management planning.
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Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium
B. Klijs (Bart); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan); A.E. Kunst (Anton)
2009-01-01
textabstractObjective Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This paper tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated to proximity to death
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Lehsten, V; Sykes, M.T.; Scott, A.V.; Tzanopoulis, A.; Kallimanis, A.; Verburg, P.H.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Potts, S.G.; Vogiatzakis, I.
2015-01-01
Aim: To project the potential European distribution of seven broad habitat categories (needle-leaved, broad-leaved, mixed and mediterranean forest, urban, grassland and cropland) in order to assess effects of land use, climate change and increase in CO
2 on predicted habitat changes up to -
Present and projected future mean radiant temperature for three European cities
Thorsson, Sofia; Rayner, David; Lindberg, Fredrik; Monteiro, Ana; Katzschner, Lutz; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Campe, Sabrina; Katzschner, Antje; Konarska, Janina; Onomura, Shiho; Velho, Sara; Holmer, Björn
2017-09-01
Present-day and projected future changes in mean radiant temperature, T mrt in one northern, one mid-, and one southern European city (represented by Gothenburg, Frankfurt, and Porto), are presented, and the concept of hot spots is adopted. Air temperature, T a , increased in all cities by 2100, but changes in solar radiation due to changes in cloudiness counterbalanced or exacerbated the effects on T mrt. The number of days with high T mrt in Gothenburg was relatively unchanged at the end of the century (+1 day), whereas it more than doubled in Frankfurt and tripled in Porto. The use of street trees to reduce daytime radiant heat load was analyzed using hot spots to identify where trees could be most beneficial. Hot spots, although varying in intensity and frequency, were generally confined to near sunlit southeast-southwest facing walls, in northeast corner of courtyards, and in open spaces in all three cities. By adding trees in these spaces, the radiant heat load can be reduced, especially in spaces with no or few trees. A set of design principles for reducing the radiant heat load is outlined based on these findings and existing literature.
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Projecting future temperature-related mortality in three largest Australian cities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Liu, De Li; Chen, Dong; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu
2016-01-01
We estimated net annual temperature-related mortality in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Australia using 62 global climate model projections under three IPPC SRES CO_2 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). In all cities, all scenarios resulted in increases in summer temperature-related deaths for future decades, and decreases in winter temperature-related deaths. However, Brisbane and Sydney will increase the net annual temperature-related deaths in the future, while a slight decrease will happen in Melbourne. Additionally, temperature-related mortality will largely increase beyond the summer (including January, February, March, November and December) in Brisbane and Sydney, while temperature-related mortality will largely decrease beyond the winter in Melbourne. In conclusion, temperature increases for Australia are expected to result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city. In particular, the seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths will be shifted. - Temperature increases result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city in Australia.
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Xing, Wanqiu; Wang, Weiguang; Zou, Shan; Deng, Chao
2018-03-01
This study established a climate elasticity method based on Budyko hypothesis and enhanced it by selecting the most effective Budyko-type formula to strengthen the runoff change prediction reliability. The spatiotemporal variations in hydrologic variables (i.e., runoff, precipitation and potential evaporation) during historical period were revealed first and the climate elasticities of runoff were investigated. The proposed climate elasticity method was also applied to project the spatiotemporal variations in future runoff and its key influencing factors in 35 watersheds across China. Wherein, the future climate series were retrieved by consulting the historical series, informed by four global climate models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathways from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Wang-Tang equation was selected as the optimal Budyko-type equation for its best ability in reproducing the runoff change (with a coefficient of determination and mean absolute error of 0.998 and 1.36 mm, respectively). Observed runoff presents significant decreasing trends in the northern and increasing trends in the southern regions of China, and generally its change is identified to be more sensitive to climatic variables in Hai River Basin and lower Yellow River Basin. Compared to the runoff during the reference period, positive change rates in the north and negative change rates in the south of China in the mid-21st century can be practically generalized from the majority of GCMs projections. This maybe resulted from the increasing precipitation, especially in parts of northern basins. Meanwhile, GCMs project a consistently upward trend in potential evaporation although significant decreasing trends occur in the majority of catchments for the historical period. The results indicate that climate change will possibly bring some changes to the water resources over China in the mid-21st century and some countermeasures of water resources planning
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Hussain, Mubasher; Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan; Mustafa, Muhammad Raza Ul; Mahmood, Rashid; Jia, Shaofeng
2017-10-01
We present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most suitable GCMs (i.e. ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, and GFDL-ESM2M) and their mean ensemble (B3MMM) was used to project the future precipitation over the RRB. Historical (1976-2005) and future (2011-2100) precipitation ensembles of B3MMM were used to perturb the stochastically generated future precipitation over 25 rainfall stations in the river basin. The B3MMM exhibited a significant increase in precipitation during 2080s, up to 12 and 8% increase in annual precipitation over upper and lower RRB, respectively, under RCP8.5, and up to 7% increase in annual precipitation under RCP4.5. On the seasonal scale, Mann-Kendal trend test estimated statistically significant positive trend in the future precipitation during all seasons; except September to November when we only noted significant positive trend for the lower RRB under RCP4.5. Overall, at the end of the twenty-first century, an increase in annual precipitation is noteworthy in the whole RRB, with 7 and 10% increase in annual precipitation under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, respectively.
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Challenges for future space power systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brandhorst, H.W. Jr.
1989-01-01
The future appears rich in missions that will extend the frontiers of knowledge, human presence in space, and opportunities for profitable commerce. The key to success of these ventures is the availability of plentiful, cost effective electric power and assured, low cost access to space. While forecasts of space power needs are problematic, an assessment of future needs based on terrestrial experience was made. These needs fall into three broad categories-survival, self sufficiency and industrialization. The cost of delivering payloads to orbital locations from low earth orbit (LEO) to Mars was determined and future launch cost reductions projected. From these factors, then, projections of the performance necessary for future solar and nuclear space power options were made. These goals are largely dependent upon orbital location and energy storage needs
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Outlook for coastal plain forests: a subregional report from the Southern Forest Futures Project
Kier Klepzig; Richard Shelfer; Zanethia Choice
2014-01-01
The U.S. Coastal Plain consists of seven sections: the Northern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic, Peninsular Florida, Southern Gulf, Middle Gulf-East, Middle Gulf-West, and Western Gulf. It covers a large area, consists of a diverse array of habitats, and supports a diverse array of uses. This report presents forecasts from the Southern Forest Futures Project that are...
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King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.
2013-01-01
Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions
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King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J
2013-01-01
Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions
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King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J
2013-12-01
Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine-prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and
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International research and development projects in nuclear energy: Experience and future prospects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Strohl, P.
1983-01-01
From the very beginning nuclear energy appeared as a fruitful field for international co-operation and particularly for international projects and joint ventures. By pooling scientific, technical and financial resources, the participating countries sought to promote the development of technology and the transition of nuclear energy to the industrial stage. Governments and therefore intergovernmental organizations were the driving force behind the establishment of joint projects in various R and D sectors, often in association with industry and private research institutes. The situation changed considerably from the end of the 1960s onwards. Despite some remarkable technical achievements, international co-operation did not develop to the extent predicted at the outset. Industry took over in the exploitation of proven technologies, and industrial co-operation agreements have become an important feature in some key areas of nuclear energy. This trend raises questions as to the future of joint R and D projects organized through intergovernmental co-operation. Although such projects are still very useful, they tend to be concentrated in those few sectors which continue to be of direct interest to the Governments; for instance, fundamental research, radioactive waste management and nuclear safety. The position of nuclear energy has changed, and the benefits to be drawn from this form of international co-operation must be critically re-assessed accordingly. While advantage to be gained from international projects for countries which are the most advanced in the development of nuclear energy is not the same as it was at the beginning, the transfer of experience and knowledge to less advanced countries is still the main concern of projects dealing with safety and regulatory matters. The experience thus gained provides a very useful insight into the legal and institutional framework of joint projects
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Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium
Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Kunst, Anton E.
2011-01-01
Objective: Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild
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Takata, Hideaki; Nagata, Hiroshi; Nogawa, Hiroki; Tanaka, Hiroshi
2011-05-27
Starting in the late 1980s, the Japanese government decreased the number of students accepted into medical school each year in order to reduce healthcare spending. The result of this policy is a serious shortage of doctors in Japan today, which has become a social problem in recent years. In an attempt to solve this problem, the Japanese government decided in 2007 to increase the medical student quota from 7625 to 8848. Furthermore, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), Japan's ruling party after the 2009 election, promised in their manifesto to increase the medical student quota to 1.5 times what it was in 2007, in order to raise the number of medical doctors to more than 3.0 per 1000 persons. It should be noted, however, that this rapid increase in the medical student quota may bring about a serious doctor surplus in the future, especially because the population of Japan is decreasing.The purpose of this research is to project the future growth of the Japanese medical doctor workforce from 2008 to 2050 and to forecast whether the proposed additional increase in the student quota will cause a doctor surplus. Simulation modeling of the Japanese medical workforce. Even if the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ fails, the number of practitioners is projected to increase from 286 699 (2.25 per 1000 persons) in 2008 to 365 533 (over the national numerical goal of 3.0 per 1000) in 2024. The number of practitioners per 1000 persons is projected to further increase to 3.10 in 2025, to 3.71 in 2035, and to 4.69 in 2050. If the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ is realized, the total workforce is projected to rise to 392 331 (3.29 per 1000 persons) in 2025, 464 296 (4.20 per 1,000 persons) in 2035, and 545 230 (5.73 per 1000 persons) in 2050. The plan to increase the medical student quota will bring about a serious doctor surplus in the long run.
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Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching.
Logan, Cheryl A; Dunne, John P; Eakin, C Mark; Donner, Simon D
2014-01-01
Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming-induced bleaching remains largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias-corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the preindustrial period through 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a preindustrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method overpredicts the present-day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2-10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20-80% compared with the 'no adaptive response' prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high-frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high-frequency bleaching by ca. 10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xuhui Cong
2018-06-01
Full Text Available The performance evaluation index system was established on the basis of 4E (Efficiency, Economic, Effectiveness, Equity theory to improve performance evaluation of Public-Private Partnership Projects for Residential Renovation (4P2R. Moreover, the index weighting model was demonstrated based on Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA. Finally, the cloud model was used for performance evaluation, through the cloud uncertainty reasoning to determine the quantitative performance evaluation index value, the positive reverse cloud to calculate the qualitative performance evaluation index value, and the normal cloud to measure the project performance. The proof-of-concept application shows that the performance evaluation index system and evaluation model can better identify the deficiencies in the project, and provide targeted improvement measures for similar projects in the future.
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Lang, C.; Fettweis, X.; Erpicum, M.
2015-01-01
We have performed future projections of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR regional climate model forced by the MIROC5 global model, following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of the melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago and the ice caps. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo-melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a strong winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. At the end of the century (2070-2099 mean), SMB is projected to be negative over the entire Svalbard and, by 2085, all glaciated regions of Svalbard are predicted to undergo net ablation, meaning that, under the RCP8.5 scenario, all the glaciers and ice caps are predicted to start their irreversible retreat before the end of the 21st century.
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van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos
2017-04-01
The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change. Projections suggest that the Balkans will experience precipitation and runoff decreases of up to 30% by 2100. However, these projections show large regional spatial variability. Mediterranean lake-wetland systems are particularly threatened by projected climate changes that compound increasingly intensive human impacts (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of individual lake-wetland hydrological responses to future climate changes, which requires fine-resolution projections and a good understanding of the impact of hydro-climate variability on individual lakes. Climate change may directly affect lake level (variability), volume and water temperatures. In turn, these variables influence lake-ecology, habitats and water quality. Land-use intensification and water abstraction multiply these climate-driven changes. To date, there are no projections of future water level and -temperature of individual Mediterranean lakes under future climate scenarios. These are, however, of crucial importance to steer preservation strategies on the relevant catchment-scale. Here we present the first projections of water level and -temperature of the Prespa Lakes covering the period 2071-2100. These lakes are of global significance for biodiversity, and of great regional socio-economic importance as a water resource and tourist attraction. Impact projections are assessed by the Regional Climate Model RCA4 of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) driven by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology global climate model MPI-ESM-LR under two RCP future emissions scenarios, the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, with the simulations carried out in the framework of EURO-CORDEX. Temperature, evapo(transpi)ration and
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Hodd, Rory L; Bourke, David; Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy
2014-01-01
Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rory L Hodd
Full Text Available Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1 oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2 species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3 species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need
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Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya;
2016-01-01
Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths per year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382000 (121000 to 728000) deaths per year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths per year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM(sub 2.5) concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. A. Silva
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5 is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs, the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry–climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths year−1, likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382 000 (121 000 to 728 000 deaths year−1 in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths year−1 in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios
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Global Analysis of Climate Change Projection Effects on Atmospheric Rivers
Espinoza, Vicky; Waliser, Duane E.; Guan, Bin; Lavers, David A.; Ralph, F. Martin
2018-05-01
A uniform, global approach is used to quantify how atmospheric rivers (ARs) change between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 historical simulations and future projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 warming scenarios. The projections indicate that while there will be 10% fewer ARs in the future, the ARs will be 25% longer, 25% wider, and exhibit stronger integrated water vapor transports (IVTs) under RCP8.5. These changes result in pronounced increases in the frequency (IVT strength) of AR conditions under RCP8.5: 50% (25%) globally, 50% (20%) in the northern midlatitudes, and 60% (20%) in the southern midlatitudes. The models exhibit systematic low biases across the midlatitudes in replicating historical AR frequency ( 10%), zonal IVT ( 15%), and meridional IVT ( 25%), with sizable intermodel differences. A more detailed examination of six regions strongly impacted by ARs suggests that the western United States, northwestern Europe, and southwestern South America exhibit considerable intermodel differences in projected changes in ARs.
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Large-scale water projects in the developing world: Revisiting the past and looking to the future
Sivakumar, Bellie; Chen, Ji
2014-05-01
During the past half a century or so, the developing world has been witnessing a significant increase in freshwater demands due to a combination of factors, including population growth, increased food demand, improved living standards, and water quality degradation. Since there exists significant variability in rainfall and river flow in both space and time, large-scale storage and distribution of water has become a key means to meet these increasing demands. In this regard, large dams and water transfer schemes (including river-linking schemes and virtual water trades) have been playing a key role. While the benefits of such large-scale projects in supplying water for domestic, irrigation, industrial, hydropower, recreational, and other uses both in the countries of their development and in other countries are undeniable, concerns on their negative impacts, such as high initial costs and damages to our ecosystems (e.g. river environment and species) and socio-economic fabric (e.g. relocation and socio-economic changes of affected people) have also been increasing in recent years. These have led to serious debates on the role of large-scale water projects in the developing world and on their future, but the often one-sided nature of such debates have inevitably failed to yield fruitful outcomes thus far. The present study aims to offer a far more balanced perspective on this issue. First, it recognizes and emphasizes the need for still additional large-scale water structures in the developing world in the future, due to the continuing increase in water demands, inefficiency in water use (especially in the agricultural sector), and absence of equivalent and reliable alternatives. Next, it reviews a few important success and failure stories of large-scale water projects in the developing world (and in the developed world), in an effort to arrive at a balanced view on the future role of such projects. Then, it discusses some major challenges in future water planning
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The TRIDEC Project: Future-Saving FOSS GIS Applications for Tsunami Early Warning
Loewe, P.; Wächter, J.; Hammitzsch, M.
2011-12-01
The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 killed over 240,000 people in 14 countries and inundated the affected shorelines with waves reaching heights up to 30m. This natural disaster coincided with an information catastrophy, as potentially life-saving early warning information existed, yet no means were available to deliver it to the communities under imminent threat. Tsunami Early Warning Capabilities have improved in the meantime by continuing development of modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). However, recent tsunami events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key challenge for ongoing TEWS research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of reliable early warning messages. Since 2004, the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All TRIDEC developments are based on Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) components and industry standards where-ever possible. Tsunami Early Warning in TRIDEC is also based on mature system architecture models to ensure long-term usability and the flexibility to adapt to future generations of Tsunami sensors. All open source software produced by the project consortium are foreseen to be published on FOSSLAB, a publicly available
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National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Ballister, Robert
2003-01-01
.... The lessons learned from those projects, coupled with a look at project management history in general, will be checked against a current project management theory to determine if the focus of today's...
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Projecting the Future for Design Science Research: An Action‐Case Based Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Baskerville, Richard; Pries-Heje, Jan
2015-01-01
and theories appears to be a key challenge. In this paper we commence with a DESRIST paper from 2012 that instantiated design principles in an artifact for a bank. That paper included plans and techniques for future use of its principles (propagation), including prescriptions for a five-phase adoption process...... or theories have stimulated many actual projections. We demonstrate these concepts in a case study of propagation: a chemical manufacturer and service provider that adopted the design principles arising from that 2012 DESRIST banking-based design science research. We conclude that generalizability is too well...
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Effects of future climate conditions on terrestrial export from coastal southern California
Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J. M.
2015-12-01
The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project (SBC-LTER) is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export is a central theme for the project. Here we combine the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model and daily precipitation and temperature downscaled using statistical downscaling based on localized constructed Analogs (LOCA) to estimate recent streamflow dynamics (2000 to 2014) and future conditions (2015 to 2100). The HRR model covers the SBC-LTER watersheds from just west of the Ventura River to Point Conception; a land area of roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The downscaled climate conditions have a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. Here, we use the Penman-Monteith method with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites to estimate potential evapotranspiration (PET). The HRR model is calibrated for the period 2000 to 2014 using USGS and LTER streamflow. An automated calibration technique is used. For future climate scenarios, we use mean 8-day land cover conditions. Future streamflow, ET and soil moisture statistics are presented and based on downscaled P and T from ten climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).
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The human Genome project and the future of oncology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Collins, Francis S.
1996-01-01
The Human Genome Project is an ambitious 15-year effort to devise maps and sequence of the 3-billion base pair human genome, including all 100,000 genes. The project is running ahead of schedule and under budget. Already the effects on progress in disease gene discovery have been dramatic, especially for cancer. The most appropriate uses of susceptibility testing for breast, ovarian, and colon cancer are being investigated in research protocols, and the need to prevent genetic discrimination in employment and health insurance is becoming more urgent. In the longer term, these gene discoveries are likely to usher in a new era of therapeutic molecular medicine
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Ruiz-Sinoga, José D.; Hueso-González, Paloma; León-Gross, Teodoro; Molina, Julián; Remond, Ricardo; Martínez-Murillo, Juan F.
2017-04-01
The Global Change is referred to the occurrence of great environmental changes associated to climatic fluctuations and human activity as wel (Vitousek et al., 1997; Steffen et al., 2004; Dearing et al., 2006). García-Ruiz et al. (2015) indicated that the relief varies very slowly in time while the changes in vegetation, overland flow generation and erosion occurred very rapidly and conditioned by their interactions and the climate variability as well. The GLOMED-LAND Project has its bases and scientific justification on the combination of the experience of the members of the research team, from one side, in the analysis of the dynamics and eco-geomorphological and climatic processes in Mediterranean environments of southern Spain, in the context of current Global change, and from another, in the study, development and application of new tools for simulation and modelling of future scenarios, and finally, in the analysis of the impact that society exercises the broadcast media related to the problem derived from the awareness and adaptation to Global change. Climate change (CC), directly affects the elements that compose the landscape. Both in the analysis of future climate scenarios raised by the IPCC (2013), such as the regionalisation carried out by AEMET, the Mediterranean region and, especially, the South of Spain, - with its defined longitudinal pluviometric gradient - configured as one of the areas of greatest uncertainty, reflected in a higher concentration of temporal rainfall, and even a reduction in the rainfall. Faced with this situation, the CC can modify the current landscape setting, with all the environmental impacts that this would entail for the terrestrial ecosystems and the systemic services rendered to the society. The combination of different work scales allows the analysis of the dynamics of the landscape and the consequence of its modifications on, hydro-geomorphological processes, closely related to degradation processes that can affect the
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Lind, Sophie E; Williams, David M; Bowler, Dermot M; Peel, Anna
2014-01-01
There appears to be a common network of brain regions that underlie the ability to recall past personal experiences (episodic memory) and the ability to imagine possible future personal experiences (episodic future thinking). At the cognitive level, these abilities are thought to rely on "scene construction" (the ability to bind together multimodal elements of a scene in mind--dependent on hippocampal functioning) and temporal "self-projection" (the ability to mentally project oneself through time--dependent on prefrontal cortex functioning). Although autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is characterized by diminished episodic memory, it is unclear whether episodic future thinking is correspondingly impaired. Moreover, the underlying basis of such impairments (difficulties with scene construction, self-projection, or both) is yet to be established. The current study therefore aimed to elucidate these issues. Twenty-seven intellectually high-functioning adults with ASD and 29 age- and IQ-matched neurotypical comparison adults were asked to describe (a) imagined atemporal, non-self-relevant fictitious scenes (assessing scene construction), (b) imagined plausible self-relevant future episodes (assessing episodic future thinking), and (c) recalled personally experienced past episodes (assessing episodic memory). Tests of narrative ability and theory of mind were also completed. Performances of participants with ASD were significantly and equally diminished in each condition and, crucially, this diminution was independent of general narrative ability. Given that participants with ASD were impaired in the fictitious scene condition, which does not involve self-projection, we suggest the underlying difficulty with episodic memory/future thinking is one of scene construction.
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Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce: Current status, concerns and future projections
Morinville, Véronique; Drouin, Éric; Lévesque, Dominique; Espinosa, Victor M; Jacobson, Kevan
2007-01-01
BACKGROUND: There is concern that the Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce is inadequate to meet health care demands of the pediatric population. The Canadian Association of Gastroenterology Pediatric Committee performed a survey to determine characteristics and future plans of the Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce and trainees. METHODS: Estimates of total and pediatric populations were obtained from the 2001 Census of Population, Statistics Canada (with estimates to July 1, 2005). Data on Canadian pediatric gastroenterologists, including clinical full-time equivalents, sex, work interests, opinions on workforce adequacy, retirement plans, fellowship training programs and future employment plans of fellows, were gathered through e-mail surveys and telephone correspondence in 2005 and 2006. RESULTS: Canada had an estimated population of 32,270,507 in 2005 (6,967,853 people aged zero to 17 years). The pediatric gastroenterology workforce was estimated at 9.2 specialists per million children. Women accounted for 50% of the workforce. Physician to pediatric population ratios varied, with Alberta demonstrating the highest and Saskatchewan the lowest ratios (1:69,404 versus 1:240,950, respectively). Between 1998 and 2005, Canadian pediatric gastroenterology fellowship programs trained 65 fellows (65% international trainees). Twenty-two fellows (34%) entered the Canadian workforce. CONCLUSIONS: The survey highlights the variable and overall low numbers of pediatric gastroenterologists across Canada, an increasingly female workforce, a greater percentage of part-time physicians and a small cohort of Canadian trainees. In conjunction with high projected retirement rates, greater demands on the work-force and desires to partake in nonclinical activities, there is concern for an increasing shortage of pediatric gastroenterologists in Canada in future years. PMID:17948136
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Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B. H.
2017-12-01
Often cited as a general guide to future climatic change, "the wet get wetter, and the dry get drier" is a misleading way to look towards the future for many regions of the globe, just as the simple use of multi-model ensemble projections of temperature and precipitation change averaged over many years can also be quite misleading for real-world planning and decision-making. Factors that support these assertions are multi-fold. First, we know with high confidence that warming will continue as long as greenhouse gas emissions continue. Second, continued warming will act to make droughts more frequent, longer and more severe in many regions. Even in the absence of precipitation declines, increases in evaporation and evapotranspiration, among other things, will drive regional drying. It is misleading to suggest to decision-makers that although the future may see an increase in drought risk, a projected increase in mean precipitation will counter-balance the increased drought risk. This counter-balancing will be absent during periods of precipitation-dominated drought. Moreover, projections of precipitation change are usually associated with much less confidence than projections of warming. For example, in places like the headwaters of the Colorado and Rio Grande Rivers, or East Africa, many models suggest we should be seeing an increase in precipitation, when in fact we are only seeing significant warming. Moreover, paleoclimatic evidence suggests that state-of-the-art Earth System Models may underestimate the risk of future multi-decadal droughts, even though these droughts have occurred in many regions during the last 2000 years. This reality suggests that even in regions that do see modest increases in mean precipitation, there will likely be periods in the future characterized by decades of below 20th century mean precipitation coupled with unprecedented warmth. Hot drought may be a much more widespread and serious threat than widely recognized.
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Handbook to guide the measurement and monitoring of project effectiveness and impact
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
1986-09-15
This handbook demonstrates the application of a tool for measuring and monitoring the impact of a development project in the Department of Quezaltenango, Guatemala. That project itself presently is a demonstration. It explores the technical feasibility and the commercial possibilities of direct geothermal heat applications to the processing of agricultural produce - with the eventual purpose of expanding agricultural exports from Guatemala. The handbook focuses on an early stage of the geothermal initiative and guides preparations for future impact measurement and monitoring of geothermal projects. Primarily, guidance is for projects in agricultural applications of geothermal heat - and basically in Quezaltenango. But the exercise and the handbook are relevant in broad outline to other, industrial applications projects as well which may be based in other departments and have immediate impact across the whole country. This handbook attempts to prepare geothermal energy planners in Guatemala for that juncture when geothermal projects can be managed by objectives. It promotes and facilitates thinking about defining specific objectives for projects that result from the demonstration at Zunil (in Quezaltenango Department); and it prompts preparations for obtaining baseline measurements and for making rational projections on the achievements of future projects.
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The international Chernobyl project
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gonzalez, A.J.
1992-01-01
The findings of the International Chernobyl Project are summarized herewith. The project focused on four key issues related to the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident which are of concern to the population and policy makers: the true extent of the current contamination in inhabited areas of Belarus, Russia and the Ukraine; the past, current and future radiation exposure of the population; the actual and potential health effects; and the adequacy or measures being taken to protect the public. The project findings are expected to contribute towards alleviating the consequences of the accident by presenting factual information to allow future policy and worldwide assistance to be channelled to where it is most needed and where it can be best used. (author)
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Halyna V. Lutsenko
2015-02-01
Full Text Available The peculiarities of modern world experience of implementation of project-based learning in engineering education have been considered. The potential role and place of projects in learning activity have been analyzed. The methodology of organization of project-based activity of engineering students when studying the project management methodology and computer systems of project management has been proposed. The requirements to documentation and actual results of students' projects have been described in detail. The requirements to computer-aided systems of project management developed by using Microsoft Project in the scope of diary scheduling and resources planning have been formulated.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schwarze, G.E.; Niedra, J.M.; Frasca, A.J.; Wieserman, W.R.
1993-01-01
The effects of nuclear radiation and high temperature environments must be fully known and understood for the electronic components and materials used in both the Power Conditioning and Control subsystem and the reactor Instrumentation and Control subsystem of future high capacity nuclear space power systems. This knowledge is required by the designer of these subsystems in order to develop highly reliable, long-life power systems for future NASA missions. A review and summary of the experimental results obtained for the electronic components and materials investigated under the power management element of the CSTI high capacity power project will be presented in this paper: (1) Neutron, gamma ray, and temperature effects on power semiconductor switches, (2) Temperature and frequency effects on soft magnetic materials; and (3) Temperature effects on rare-earth permanent magnets
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shwarze, G.E.; Wieserman, W.R.
1994-01-01
The effects of nuclear radiation and high temperature environments must be fully known and understood for the electronic components and materials used in both the Power Conditioning and Control subsystem and the reactor Instrumentation and Control subsystem of future high capacity nuclear space power systems. This knowledge is required by the designer of these subsystems in order to develop highly reliable, long-life power systems for future NASA missions. A review and summary of the experimental results obtained for the electronic components and materials investigated under the power management element of the CSTI high capacity power project will be presented in this paper: (1) Neutron, gamma ray, and temperature effects on power semiconductor switches, (2) Temperature and frequency effects on soft magnetic materials; and (3) Temperature effects on rare earth permanent magnets
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Özbek, Müge; Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe
2017-01-01
Episodic counterfactuals are imagined events that could have happened, but did not happen, in a person’s past. Such imagined past events are important aspects of mental life, affecting emotions, decisions, and behaviors. However, studies examining their phenomenological characteristics and content...... are few. Here we introduced a new method to systematically compare self-generated episodic counterfactuals to self-generated episodic memories and future projections with regard to their phenomenological characteristics (e.g., imagery, emotional valence, rehearsal) and content (e.g., reference to cultural...... distance. The findings show that imagined events are phenomenologically different from memories of experienced events, consistent with reality monitoring theory, and that imagined future events are different from both actual and imagined past events, consistent with some theories of motivation....
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Effects of recent energy system changes on CO2 projections for the United States.
Lenox, Carol S; Loughlin, Daniel H
2017-09-21
Recent projections of future United States carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions are considerably lower than projections made just a decade ago. A myriad of factors have contributed to lower forecasts, including reductions in end-use energy service demands, improvements in energy efficiency, and technological innovations. Policies that have encouraged these changes include renewable portfolio standards, corporate vehicle efficiency standards, smart growth initiatives, revisions to building codes, and air and climate regulations. Understanding the effects of these and other factors can be advantageous as society evaluates opportunities for achieving additional CO 2 reductions. Energy system models provide a means to develop such insights. In this analysis, the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) model was applied to estimate the relative effects of various energy system changes that have happened since the year 2005 on CO 2 projections for the year 2025. The results indicate that transformations in the transportation and buildings sectors have played major roles in lowering projections. Particularly influential changes include improved vehicle efficiencies, reductions in projected travel demand, reductions in miscellaneous commercial electricity loads, and higher efficiency lighting. Electric sector changes have also contributed significantly to the lowered forecasts, driven by demand reductions, renewable portfolio standards, and air quality regulations.
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Project Management 2027; The Future of Project Management
Drs. A.J.G. Silvius
2008-01-01
This paper describes a study into the expected development of the competences op the project manager in the year 2027. The study was performed amongst the members of IPMA-Netherlands during the summer of 2007. In the study the 46 competences of the International Competence Baseline 3 (ICB 3) were
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SAT projects' effectiveness: managerial aspects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kazennov, A.; Zlokazov, A.; Kossilov, A.
2003-01-01
Discussion provided below in the text and on the presentation transparencies is based on hands-on experience of SAT projects' implementation which have been or being conducted in several countries, and intended to develop or upgrade NPP personnel training. We will 'risk' to say that no comprehensive system, training system in particular, can work without feedback. A powerful tool to establish a controllability of a training process is to measure (using certain criteria) trainees' performance., training process, employees' qualification, on-job human performance, overall plant performance, and then (using certain algorithms) to provide feedback control to training and the whole organization with clear understanding and grading whether we deal with training-related root causes or not. In this way a training effectiveness may be considered as a feature that shows to what extent training is producing a desired result (e.g. developing needed skills, knowledge and attitudes, enhancing quality, safety and productivity, establishing cost-effective training, etc.). In order to design a training system with the features of feedback control, the SAT projects are implemented. In this respect SAT is more 'systems' rather than 'systematic' approach. Obviously, the criteria to evaluate a training system should be established. SAT implementation may be considered as a corrective action to fix the problems associated with the deficiencies in personnel competence or ineffectiveness of training system. But each corrective action or initiative related to a training system development should be generated and justified through normal process of evaluation and systematic needs analysis. The effectiveness of a training development project shall be evaluated against the overall goal and specific objectives of a project. The ultimate overall goal of SAT project implementation is to develop or upgrade NPP personnel training programmes and the whole training system in order to provide
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Scheduling projects with multiskill learning effect.
Zha, Hong; Zhang, Lianying
2014-01-01
We investigate the project scheduling problem with multiskill learning effect. A new model is proposed to deal with the problem, where both autonomous and induced learning are considered. In order to obtain the optimal solution, a genetic algorithm with specific encoding and decoding schemes is introduced. A numerical example is used to illustrate the proposed model. The computational results show that the learning effect cannot be neglected in project scheduling. By means of determining the level of induced learning, the project manager can balance the project makespan with total cost.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Hutson, N.; Lamm, C. R.; Pei, Y. L.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Vyas, A. D.; Winebrake, J. J.
2013-03-01
Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analytical models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.
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Key issues in space nuclear power challenges for the future
Brandhorst, Henry W., Jr.
1991-01-01
The future appears rich in missions that will extend the frontiers of knowledge, human presence in space, and opportunities for profitable commerce. Key to the success of these ventures is the availability of plentiful, cost effective electric power and assured, low cost access to space. While forecasts of space power needs are problematic, an assessment of future needs based on terrestrial experience has been made. These needs fall into three broad categories: survival, self sufficiency, and industrialization. The cost of delivering payloads to orbital locations from LEO to Mars has been determined and future launch cost reductions projected. From these factors, then, projections of the performance necessary for future solar and nuclear space power options has been made. These goals are largely dependent upon orbital location and energy storage needs. Finally the cost of present space power systems has been determined and projections made for future systems.
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Economic effects of propulsion system technology on existing and future transport aircraft
Sallee, G. P.
1974-01-01
The results of an airline study of the economic effects of propulsion system technology on current and future transport aircraft are presented. This report represents the results of a detailed study of propulsion system operating economics. The study has four major parts: (1) a detailed analysis of current propulsion system maintenance with respect to the material and labor costs encountered versus years in service and the design characteristics of the major elements of the propulsion system of the B707, b727, and B747. (2) an analysis of the economic impact of a future representative 1979 propulsion system is presented with emphasis on depreciation of investment, fuel costs and maintenance costs developed on the basis of the analysis of the historical trends observed. (3) recommendations concerning improved methods of forecasting the maintenance cost of future propulsion systems are presented. A detailed method based on the summation of the projected labor and material repair costs for each major engine module and its installation along with a shorter form suitable for quick, less detailed analysis are presented, and (4) recommendations concerning areas where additional technology is needed to improve the economics of future commercial propulsion systems are presented along with the suggested economic benefits available from such advanced technology efforts.
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Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design
Perry, Laura G.; Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Beechie, Timothy J.; Collins, Mathias J.; Shafroth, Patrick B.
2015-01-01
Climate change and associated changes in streamflow may alter riparian habitats substantially in coming decades. Riparian restoration provides opportunities to respond proactively to projected climate change effects, increase riparian ecosystem resilience to climate change, and simultaneously address effects of both climate change and other human disturbances. However, climate change may alter which restoration methods are most effective and which restoration goals can be achieved. Incorporating climate change into riparian restoration planning and design is critical to long-term restoration of desired community composition and ecosystem services. In this review, we discuss and provide examples of how climate change might be incorporated into restoration planning at the key stages of assessing the project context, establishing restoration goals and design criteria, evaluating design alternatives, and monitoring restoration outcomes. Restoration planners have access to numerous tools to predict future climate, streamflow, and riparian ecology at restoration sites. Planners can use those predictions to assess which species or ecosystem services will be most vulnerable under future conditions, and which sites will be most suitable for restoration. To accommodate future climate and streamflow change, planners may need to adjust methods for planting, invasive species control, channel and floodplain reconstruction, and water management. Given the considerable uncertainty in future climate and streamflow projections, riparian ecological responses, and effects on restoration outcomes, planners will need to consider multiple potential future scenarios, implement a variety of restoration methods, design projects with flexibility to adjust to future conditions, and plan to respond adaptively to unexpected change.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rashid, Md. Mamunur, E-mail: mdmamunur.rashid@mymail.unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Beecham, Simon, E-mail: simon.beecham@unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Chowdhury, Rezaul K., E-mail: rezaulkabir@uaeu.ac.ae [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, PO Box 15551 (United Arab Emirates)
2015-10-15
A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages. - Highlights: • A generalized linear model was used for multi-site daily rainfall downscaling. • Rainfall was downscaled from CMIP5 GCM outputs. • Two multi-model ensemble approaches were used. • Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping
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How Adolescents Construct Their Future: The Effect of Loneliness on Future Orientation
Seginer, Rachel; Lilach, Efrat
2004-01-01
This study examined the effect of loneliness, gender, and two dimensions of prospective life domains on adolescent future orientation. Future orientation was studied in four prospective domains: social relations, marriage and family, higher education and work and career. These domains are described in terms of two dimensions: theme (relational vs.…
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Planning and managing future space facility projects. [management by objectives and group dynamics
Sieber, J. E.; Wilhelm, J. A.; Tanner, T. A.; Helmreich, R. L.; Burgenbauch, S. F.
1979-01-01
To learn how ground-based personnel of a space project plan and organize their work and how such planning and organizing relate to work outcomes, longitudinal study of the management and execution of the Space Lab Mission Development Test 3 (SMD 3) was performed at NASA Ames Research Center. A view of the problems likely to arise in organizations and some methods of coping with these problems are presented as well as the conclusions and recommendations that pertain strictly to SMD 3 management. Emphasis is placed on the broader context of future space facility projects and additional problems that may be anticipated. A model of management that may be used to facilitate problem solving and communication - management by objectives (MBO) is presented. Some problems of communication and emotion management that MBO does not address directly are considered. Models for promoting mature, constructive and satisfying emotional relationships among group members are discussed.
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Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.
2013-12-01
Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.
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The Cernavoda project - past and future
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Glodeanu, F.; Campureanu, T.; Chirica, T.; Popescu, D.
1995-01-01
The history of the Cernavoda nuclear power station in Romania is traced. It was conceived in 1977 as five unit CANDU-6 station and agreements were concluded on engineering, procurement and financial assistance with Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd (AECL) and Ansaldo of Italy. Delays in construction were created from the first, however, by efforts to manufacture as many components as possible in Romania, unfamiliarity with nuclear project management and the disadvantages of a highly centralised economy. Political changes since December 1989 have led to a new approach to project implementation. The Romanian Electricity Authority (RENEL), signed a new contract with AECL and Ansaldo in August 1991 to perform the project management for the completion of Cernavoda 1. The project has progressed very well and by the beginning of 1995 more than 90% of the plant systems were ready for commissioning and a full operating shift was in place. As a second phase of the nuclear power programme RENEL plans to complete Cernavoda 2, the construction of which was suspended at 30% completion. The three other units will be preserved in their present preliminary stage of construction up to 2000 while finance is sought for their completion. Nuclear power is seen as an environmentally clean means of meeting Romania's growing energy demand as the economy develops. (UK)
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Project risk management: A review of an institutional project life cycle
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wanjiru Gachie
2017-11-01
Full Text Available This article is a desktop analysis of project risk management involving a project management institutional restructuring. The pragmatic nature of this research allows for the literature review and the document analysis to be integrated and presented as both a descriptive and analytical research. The analysis demonstrates that the project committee did not proactively manage project risk. The restructuring was a change management project, entailing the implementation of many organisational changes, such as restructuring, lay-off of some part of the administrative workforce, adoption of new technology, provision of new approaches to well-established procedures, and implementation of new performance initiative, the process which should have been managed with an effective integrated risk strategy and plan. Analysis of the restructuring project risk management exhibits little evidence of a systematic (computer based or manual record that should have provided policies, procedures, and structures for managing risk. The article concludes that the restructuring risk process was inadequate and it could not have ensured a successful project. An analysis of the restructuring project risk monitoring and control exhibits a reactive rather than proactive application of risk management procedures. The analysis further indicates that the committee failed to make use of the various project risk management processes, standards, and guidelines. Based on the conclusions, the article recommends that project risk planning, strategy, control, and monitoring should be put in place for future institutional projects. The project management team should also put in place procedures for primary stakeholders engagements, identify and address their nature of interest and power in future risk management projects
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Heyoka
2007-01-01
Since 2004, and specitally during the long study in 2005, we used the results of the LHC Project to evaluate differents parameters of the machiene (LHC). The final choices for the design of the machine are based partly on these results. (1,5 page)
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ACSEPT a European project for a new step in the future demonstration of advanced fuel processing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bourg, S.; Hill, C.; Caravaca, C.; Espartero, A.; Rhodes, C.; Taylor, R.; Harrison, M.; EKBERG, C.; GEIST, A.; Modolo, G.; Cassayre, L.; Malmbeck, R.; De Angelis, G.; Bouvet, S.; Klaassen, F.
2010-01-01
For more than fifteen years, a European scientific community has joined its effort to develop and optimise processes for the partitioning of actinides from fission products. In an international context of 'nuclear renaissance', the upcoming of a new generation of nuclear reactor (Gen IV) will require the development of associated advanced closed fuel cycles which answer the needs of a sustainable nuclear energy: the minimization of the production of long lived radioactive waste but also the optimization of the use of natural resources with an increased resistance to proliferation. Actually, Partitioning and Transmutation (P and T), associated to a multi-recycling of all transuranics (TRUs), should play a key role in the development of this sustainable nuclear energy. By joining together 34 Partners coming from European universities, nuclear research bodies and major industrial players in a multidisciplinary consortium, the FP7 EURATOM-Fission Collaborative Project ACSEPT (Actinide recycling by Separation and Transmutation), started in 2008 for four year duration, provides the sound basis and fundamental improvements for future demonstrations of fuel treatment in strong connection with fuel fabrication techniques. Consistently with potentially viable recycling strategies, ACSEPT therefore provides a structured R and D framework to develop chemical separation processes compatible with fuel fabrication techniques, with a view to their future demonstration at the pilot level. ACSEPT is organized into three technical domains: (i) Considering technically mature aqueous separation processes, ACSEPT works to optimize and select the most promising ones dedicated either to actinide partitioning or to group actinide separation. (ii) Concerning high temperature pyrochemical separation processes, ACSEPT focuses on the enhancement of the two reference cores of process selected within previous projects. R and D efforts are now devoted to key scientific and technical points
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Concurrent increases in wet and dry extremes projected in Texas and combined effects on groundwater
Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Lo, Min-Hui; Wu, Wen-Ying
2018-05-01
The US state of Texas has experienced consecutive flooding events since spring 2015 with devastating consequences, yet these happened only a few years after the record drought of 2011. Identifying the effect of climate variability on regional water cycle extremes, such as the predicted occurrence of La Niña in winter 2017–2018 and its association with drought in Texas, remains a challenge. The present analyses use large-ensemble simulations to project the future of water cycle extremes in Texas and assess their connection with the changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection under global warming. Large-ensemble simulations indicate that both intense drought and excessive precipitation are projected to increase towards the middle of the 21st century, associated with a strengthened effect from ENSO. Despite the precipitation increase projected for the southern Great Plains, groundwater storage is likely to decrease in the long run with diminishing groundwater recharge; this is due to the concurrent increases and strengthening in drought offsetting the effect of added rains. This projection provides implications to short-term climate anomaly in the face of the La Niña and to long-term water resources planning.
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Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea
Casas-Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.
2013-07-01
Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrap-based method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of Hs up to ±10% were obtained, whereas they were around ±20% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of Hs are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the Hs magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.
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Nelson, Julien; Buisine, Stéphanie; Aoussat, Améziane
2013-11-01
Anticipation of future product use is a persistent issue in User-Centered Design. In this paper, we argue that one obstacle to early integration of use analysis in innovation design is overreliance on retrospective use analysis, i.e. that which is based on clear references to existing products or activities. In contrast, innovation design projects are full of uncertainty, leading to a need for prospective analysis. After having described some limitations of prospective use analysis, we contend that creativity tools may be used to assist the anticipation of future product use, by allowing designers to approach the variability of situations of future use in a structured manner rather than by "muddling through". We illustrate the expected benefits of this approach with two case studies, and describe some prospects for future research and practice in ergonomics. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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Effective Planning of the Future of the Arctic
Sentsov, A.; Bolsunovskaya, Yu; Bolsunovskaya, L.
2014-08-01
The problems of the Arctic region have become the most important ones in the world. Political risks hinder the industrial development of the region. This paper addresses the problem of planning and modeling the future of this region. It presents the problems of developing a model of the future due to the ideologies and strategies of two main actors in the Arctic, the United States and the Russian Federation. The effects of a bipolar perception of the future of the region and of the whole world are shown. A model of the effective planning of the future of the Arctic region is proposed.
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Evaluation of the RAIN project
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stuanes, A.; Dickson, W.; Jenkins, A.; Rasmussen, L.; Stordal, F.
1991-11-01
This report presents a scientific assessment of the RAIN project. It describes the main hypotheses tested and the applied methods. The major results of the research are highlighted and discussed, and they are placed in the perspective of national and international acid rain research. An important part of the RAIN project has been to provide information to the public about the acid rain problem, and in this way it has performed an important background role in influencing political decisions and legislation. The RAIN project is regarded as a cost effective research effort, and the novel approach and capital investment will enable further manipulation studies at these sites in the future. It is recommended that the project is continued in the immediate future, with some modification to answer specific questions resulting from the collected data. 24 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab
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Monitoring Water Quality in the Future, Volume 3: Biomonitoring
Zwart D de; ECO
1995-01-01
In general terms the problems with the existing water quality monitoring approach concern effective and efficient monitoring strategies. In 1993 the project "Monitoring water quality in the future" started in order to address these problems which will only increase in the future. In the framework of
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Projected near-future levels of temperature and pCO2 reduce coral fertilization success.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rebecca Albright
Full Text Available Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2 are projected to contribute to a 1.1-6.4°C rise in global average surface temperatures and a 0.14-0.35 reduction in the average pH of the global surface ocean by 2100. If realized, these changes are expected to have negative consequences for reef-building corals including increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching and reduced rates of calcification and reef accretion. Much less is known regarding the independent and combined effects of temperature and pCO2 on critical early life history processes such as fertilization. Here we show that increases in temperature (+3°C and pCO2 (+400 µatm projected for this century negatively impact fertilization success of a common Indo-Pacific coral species, Acropora tenuis. While maximum fertilization did not differ among treatments, the sperm concentration required to obtain 50% of maximum fertilization increased 6- to 8- fold with the addition of a single factor (temperature or CO2 and nearly 50- fold when both factors interact. Our results indicate that near-future changes in temperature and pCO2 narrow the range of sperm concentrations that are capable of yielding high fertilization success in A. tenuis. Increased sperm limitation, in conjunction with adult population decline, may have severe consequences for coral reproductive success. Impaired sexual reproduction will further challenge corals by inhibiting population recovery and adaptation potential.
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Forward-Looking Search Within Innovation Projects
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jissink, Tymen; Rohrbeck, René; Schweitzer, Fiona
To develop highly-innovative projects, which are fraught with uncertainty and longer development times, one cannot solely rely on initial planning and budgeting to ensure the project’s outcome remains novel. This study posits that to develop innovative projects, project teams need to engage...... in forward-looking search during development to ensure the project’s outcome remains novel and relevant. We refer to forward-looking search as the search and evaluation of information on markets, customers, and technologies in terms of their future impact. Data on 159 unique innovation projects from...... the Danish manufacturing industry shows that forward-looking search significantly impacts innovativeness. The effect follows an inverted-U shape where the greatest positive effect on innovativeness occurs in moderately planned projects and significantly lower effects in low- and highly planned projects...
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Challenges for future space power systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brandhorst, H.W. Jr.
1989-01-01
Forecasts of space power needs are presented. The needs fall into three broad categories: survival, self-sufficiency, and industrialization. The cost of delivering payloads to orbital locations and from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to Mars are determined. Future launch cost reductions are predicted. From these projections the performances necessary for future solar and nuclear space power options are identified. The availability of plentiful cost effective electric power and of low cost access to space are identified as crucial factors in the future extension of human presence in space
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Zichichi, Antonino
The following sections are included: * Physics Problems * The Whole of our Knowledge * The Future * Appendices * Appendix A: Dirac - Antiparticles & Antimatter * Appendix B: Blackett - The discovery of the "Vacuum Polarization" (1932) [the 1st example of radiative effect: pre-the Lamb-shift (1947)] * Appendix C: The New Manhattan Project * References
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Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections
Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.
2011-01-01
California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2. 1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
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Projecting Sexual and Injecting HIV Risks into Future Outcomes with Agent-Based Modeling
Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.; Zule, William A.
Longitudinal studies of health outcomes for HIV could be very costly cumbersome and not representative of the risk population. Conversely, cross-sectional approaches could be representative but rely on the retrospective information to estimate prevalence and incidence. We present an Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach where we use behavioral data from a cross-sectional representative study and project the behavior into the future so that the risks of acquiring HIV could be studied in a dynamical/temporal sense. We show how the blend of behavior and contact network factors (sexual, injecting) play the role in the risk of future HIV acquisition and time till obtaining HIV. We show which subjects are the most likely persons to get HIV in the next year, and whom they are likely to infect. We examine how different behaviors are related to the increase or decrease of HIV risks and how to estimate the quantifiable risk measures such as survival HIV free.
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Future energy research in the EU under EIT conditions-pilot projects
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Puehringer-Oppermann, Franziska; Bele, Petra; Bussar, Rainer; Stimming, Ulrich [TUM, Dept. of Physics, E19, James-Franck Str. 1, D-85748 Garching (Germany)
2009-07-01
The European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) has been established in April 2008. It is an independent organisation with the administrative head in Budapest, a governing board, an executive committee and a chairman. The EIT budget until 2012 is 308 MEUR. EIT will operate through the formation of Knowledge and Innovation Communities (KICs). The first three KICs are foreseen in the areas sustainable energy, ICT and climate mitigation. The European Commission has sponsored four pilot projects (conducted 2008-2009) to help develop a suitable governance structure for cooperations on European scale such as the future KICs. They are Bridge, ComplexEIT, SUCCESS and Gast, dealing with different topics like nanomedicine (Bridge), integration of hardware and software (ComplexEIT), sustainable energy (SUCCESS) and green and safe road transportation (Gast). The strategic objective of these pilot projects is to design, implement and test new models of cooperation in the knowledge triangle. We are involved in SUCCESS and after benchmarking of 66 collaborations in the field sustainable energy, the state of the art of selected representative topics was asessed and shortcomings in governance evaluated by SWOT analysis. In parallel further existing collaborations were used to extract and establish a management structure for such collaborations on the European scale.
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Quantifying Future PM2.5 and Associated Health Effects Due to Changes in US Wildfires
Pierce, J. R.; Val Martin, M.; Ford, B.; Zelasky, S.; Heald, C. L.; Li, F.; Lawrence, D. M.; Fischer, E. V.
2017-12-01
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from landscape fires has been shown to adversely affect visibility, air quality and and health across the US. Fire activity is strongly related to climate and human activities. Predictions based on climate scenarios and future land cover projections that consider socioeconomic development suggest that fire activity will rise dramatically over the next decades. As PM2.5 is associated with increased mortality and morbidity rates, increases in emissions from landscape fires may alter the health burden on the US population. Here we present an analysis of the changes in future wildfire activity and consequences for PM2.5 and health over the US from 2000 to 2100. We employ the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) with the IPCC RCP projections. Within CESM, we use a process-based global fire parameterization to project future climate-driven and human-caused fire emissions. From these simulations, we determine the current and future impact on PM2.5 concentrations and visibility for different regions of the US, and we also calculate the mortality attributable to PM2.5 and wildfire-specific PM2.5 using existing concentration-response functions. Results show that although total PM2.5 concentrations in the US are projected to be similar in 2100 as in 2000, the dominant source of PM2.5 will change. Under the RCP8.5 climate projection and SSP3 population projection, non-fire emissions (mostly anthropogenic) are projected to decrease, but PM2.5 from CONUS and non-US wildfires is projected to increase from approximately 20% of all PM2.5 in 2000 to 80% of all PM2.5 in 2100. Furthermore, although the US population is expected to decline between 2000 and 2100, the mortality attributable to wildfire smoke is expected to increase from 25,000 deaths per year in 2000 to 75,000 deaths per year in 2100.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Koljonen, T.; Koreneff, G.; Simila, L. [and others
2012-05-15
This report gives a summary of the results of the research project 'Future of Finnish energy business - scenarios and strategies' (SALKKU). The SALKKU research was carried out as a joint research project of VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) and MTT Agrifood Research Finland (MTT). The coordinating partner was VTT. The objective of the project was to assess the future energy business and factors contributing to it up to year 2050. The research in SALKKU is partly a continuation of the work done in the research project 'SEKKI - The Competitiveness of Finnish Energy Industry under Developing Climate Policy', which was a part of the ClimBus-programme of Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology, and the results of which have been published in VTT's and MTT's report series in 2009. The focus in SALKKU project was on assessing future energy businesses by analysing the development of energy demands and supplies as well as energy markets under the influence of future energy and climate policies, depleting fossil resources, growing population, and the economic development. The demand for energy was studied on a global, an EU, and especially on an Asian level. On the supply side the focus was both on fossil reserves and resources and on the technical and the techno-economical potential of field bioenergy. There are vast uncertainties concerning the growth in food demand and changing eating habits on one hand, and the demand for bioenergy on the other hand. The EnTech project by Etlatieto, a subsidiary of ETLA, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, was carried out as a parallel project to SALKKU. The EnTech project assessed the development of energy technology export of the Finnish energy industry. One part of the work at VTT was to analyse the impacts of future climate policies on greenhouse gas emissions, on the development of the energy systems, and on clean energy investments. The area of focus was on long term
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Yin, Yunhe; Wu, Shaohong; Zhao, Dongsheng
2013-10-01
evaporative demand has decreased worldwide during the past several decades. This trend is also noted on the Tibetan Plateau, a region that is particularly sensitive to climate change. However, patterns and trends of evapotranspiration and their relationship to drought stress on the Tibetan Plateau are complex and poorly understood. Here, we analyze spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and effective moisture (defined as the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) to reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo)) based on the modified Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ). Climate data from 80 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau were compiled for the period 1981-2010 and future climate projections were generated by a regional climate model through the 21st century. The results show regional trends towards decreasing ETo and statistically significant increases in ETa (p stress, because of generally increased effective moisture. Future regional differences are most pronounced in terms of effective moisture, which shows notable increases in the northwestern plateau and decreases in the southeastern plateau. Moreover, the reduced magnitude of effective moisture is likely to intensify in the long term, due mainly to increased evaporative demand.
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Documenter le futur: fantasmes, projections et decalages spatiotemporels
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alice Forge
2015-10-01
Full Text Available Le concept de documentation future recèle un paradoxe : le mot documenter renvoie à des traces relevées dans un passé factuel, tandis que le futur ne peut, par définition, être qu’incertain, que l’objet de fantasmes, de projections. L’analyse suivante questionne ce paradoxe à travers l’analyse d’un motif cinématographique : un homme et une femme face à une tranche de séquoia, représentation symbolique du temps. Ce motif apparait dans trois oeuvres majeures du cinéma : Vertigo, d’Alfred Hitchcock, La Jetée de Chris Marker, et l’Armée des douze singes, de Terry Gilliam. La répétition de ce motif est mise en rapport avec l’ouvrage de Pierre Bayard, Le plagiat par anticipation, afin de l’envisager sous l’angle du paradoxe temporel, plutôt que sous le régime de la chronologie historique. Cette analyse prend pour point de départ une oeuvre intitulée Vozes Fantasmas, qui sur le principe de la documentation future propose d’écouter des murmures de spectateurs visitant une exposition qui n’a pas eu lieu. RESUMO O conceito de documentação do futuro evoca um paradoxo: o verbo documentar refere-se a traços ou rastros preservados de um passado factual, enquanto o futuro por definição é algo incerto, objeto de especulações, fantasias e projeções. Nossa reflexão questiona este paradoxo a partir da análise de uma cena cinematográfica: um homem e uma mulher em frente de um corte de sequoia, que é a representação simbólica do tempo. Esta cena aprece em três grandes obras do cinema: Vertigo (Um corpo que cai de Alfred Hitchcock, La Jetée de Chris Marker, e Os Doze Macacos de Terry Gilliam. A repetição desta cena é abordada em relação à obra de Pierre Bayard, Plágio por antecipação, a fim de considerá-la em termos de paradoxo temporal, e não como uma cronologia histórica. Esta análise tem como ponto de partida um trabalho artístico intitulado Vozes Fantasmas, que seguindo o princípio de
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Monitoring the effectiveness evaluation of investment projects
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Skopin Alex O.
2012-02-01
Full Text Available The article raised the question of monitoring regulatory evaluation of the effectiveness of regional investment projects. This is justified by the fact that the current regulatory framework defined indicators for measuring the effectiveness of regional investment projects, but these figures are usually used only at the design stage of the project, an interim assessment of the effectiveness of a sufficiently simplified and based on the level of exploration investment.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mikołaj Piniewski
2017-04-01
Full Text Available There is considerable concern that the water resources of Central and Eastern Europe region can be adversely affected by climate change. Projections of future water balance and streamflow conditions can be obtained by forcing hydrological models with the output from climate models. In this study, we employed the SWAT hydrological model driven with an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX climate simulations to generate future hydrological projections for the Vistula and Odra basins in two future horizons (2024–2050 and 2074–2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The data set consists of three parts: (1 model inputs; (2 raw model outputs; (3 aggregated model outputs. The first one allows the users to reproduce the outputs or to create the new ones. The second one contains the simulated time series of 10 variables simulated by SWAT: precipitation, snow melt, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, soil water content, percolation, surface runoff, baseflow, water yield and streamflow. The third one consists of the multi-model ensemble statistics of the relative changes in mean seasonal and annual variables developed in a GIS format. The data set should be of interest of climate impact scientists, water managers and water-sector policy makers. In any case, it should be noted that projections included in this data set are associated with high uncertainties explained in this data descriptor paper.
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An alternative projection model of future nuclear capacity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Takei, Mitsuo
1985-01-01
There is generally a high degree of uncertainty involved in the projection of growth of any energy source, especially when the projection extends 50 years ahead. The 1982 OECD/NEA Report, 'Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle Prospect to 2025' notes the downturn in past projections of nuclear capacity over the past decade. It is obvious that rapidly changing conditions have affected overall worldwide energy and economic growth and the field of nuclear power has been subject to changes specific to itself. These have caused past projections to become obsolete and therefore it would seem necessary to implement a new projection method to improve the accuracy of present forecasting. (author)
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Degrave, C.; Martin-Onraet, M.
1998-01-01
To minimize the kWh cost of future nuclear plants EDF has decided to implement the CIDEM project (French acronym for Design Integrating Availability, Operating Experience and Maintenance), an analytic and systematic process for studying new projects. The first CIDEM application is centered on the future French nuclear unit construction program, known as the REP 2000 Program but the approach could be applied to other Reactor type. The CIDEM studies at the beginning, were oriented to the issues strongly impacting the availability. They have concerned: planned outages, forced outages and preventive maintenance. The studies were carried out by a team grouping engineers from the 3 EDF's Divisions (Engineering-Generation-Research), and working together in a Concurrent Engineering-Mode. This team works in close collaboration with the vendors and the German Utilities involved in the REP 2000 EPR program. The implementation of the CIDEM process constitutes for EDF a new approach to the study of the new Nuclear Power Plant projects. The studies conducted in the availability field have already highlighted a number of critical points and have made it possible to establish a series of specifications for the REP 2000/EPR project. The integration in the design process of Preventive Maintenance and Logistic Support studies will allow a better control of the maintenance cost. The competitiveness of nuclear energy greatly depends on the success of such an approach. (author)
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Svejvig, Per; Gerstrøm, Anna; Frederiksen, Signe Hedeboe
The Half Double mission: Project Half Double has a clear mission. We want to succeed in finding a project methodology that can increase the success rate of our projects while increasing the development speed of new products and services. We are convinced that by doing so we can strengthen...... the competitiveness of Denmark and play an important role in the battle for jobs and future welfare. The overall goal is to deliver “Projects in half the time with double the impact” where projects in half the time should be understood as half the time to impact (benefit realization, effect is achieved......) and not as half the time for project execution. The Half Double project journey: It all began in May 2013 when we asked ourselves: How do we create a new and radical project paradigm that can create successful projects? Today we are a movement of hundreds of passionate project people, and it grows larger...
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Arnold, Jeffrey; Clark, Martyn; Gutmann, Ethan; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Rasmussen, Roy
2016-04-01
The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has had primary responsibility for multi-purpose water resource operations on most of the major river systems in the U.S. for more than 200 years. In that time, the USACE projects and programs making up those operations have proved mostly robust against the range of natural climate variability encountered over their operating life spans. However, in some watersheds and for some variables, climate change now is known to be shifting the hydroclimatic baseline around which that natural variability occurs and changing the range of that variability as well. This makes historical stationarity an inappropriate basis for assessing continued project operations under climate-changed futures. That means new hydroclimatic projections are required at multiple scales to inform decisions about specific threats and impacts, and for possible adaptation responses to limit water-resource vulnerabilities and enhance operational resilience. However, projections of possible future hydroclimatologies have myriad complex uncertainties that require explicit guidance for interpreting and using them to inform those decisions about climate vulnerabilities and resilience. Moreover, many of these uncertainties overlap and interact. Recent work, for example, has shown the importance of assessing the uncertainties from multiple sources including: global model structure [Meehl et al., 2005; Knutti and Sedlacek, 2013]; internal climate variability [Deser et al., 2012; Kay et al., 2014]; climate downscaling methods [Gutmann et al., 2012; Mearns et al., 2013]; and hydrologic models [Addor et al., 2014; Vano et al., 2014; Mendoza et al., 2015]. Revealing, reducing, and representing these uncertainties is essential for defining the plausible quantitative climate change narratives required to inform water-resource decision-making. And to be useful, such quantitative narratives, or storylines, of climate change threats and hydrologic impacts must sample
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The Project Team: Features, Effectiveness and Leadership
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ramona-Elena GABREA
2017-06-01
Full Text Available The project team that is responsible for providing flexibility and innovation to this structure in order to enable organizations to remain successful (1. The very nature of the project team's work underpins a collective task much more complex than that assumed by other types of work teams. The aim of this paper is to explore the main factors that determine the project team effectiveness. The research methodology was the literature review. The main finding reveals that the organizational structure of projects and the project team should not be considered as a panacea for all problems of organizational effectiveness.
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MedHySol: Future federator project of massive production of solar hydrogen
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mahmah, Bouziane; Harouadi, Farid; Chader, Samira; Belhamel, Maiouf; M' Raoui, Abdelhamid; Abdeladim, Kamel [CDER, BP 62, Route de l' Observatoire, Bouzareah, Alger (Algeria); Benmoussa, H. [LESEI, Universite de Batna, Batna (Algeria); Cherigui, Adel Nasser [Universite Joseph Fourier Grenoble I, BP 87, Saint-Martin-D' Heres 38400 (France); Etievant, Claude [CETH, Innov' valley Entreprises, 91460 Marcoussis (France)
2009-06-15
Mediterranean Hydrogen Solar (MedHySol) is a federator project for development of a massive hydrogen production starting from solar energy and its exportation within a framework of a Euro-Maghrebian Cooperation project for industrial and energetic needs in the Mediterranean basin. The proposal of this project is included in the Algiers Declaration's on Hydrogen from Renewable Origin following the organization of the first international workshop on hydrogen which was held in 2005. Algeria is the privileged site to receive the MedHySol platform. The objective of the first step of the project is to realize a technological platform allowing the evaluation of emergent technologies of hydrogen production from solar energy with a significant size (10-100 kW) and to maintain the development of energetic rupture technologies. The second step of the project is to implement the most effective and less expensive technologies to pilot great projects (1-1000 MW). In this article we present the potentialities and the feasibility of MedHySol, as well as the fundamental elements for a scientific and technical supervision of this great project. (author)
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Effectiveness evaluation of the R&D projects in organizations financed by the budget expenses
Yakovlev, D.; Yushkov, E.; Pryakhin, A.; Bogatyreova, M.
2017-01-01
The issues of R&D project performance and their prospects are closely concerned with knowledge management. In the initial stages of the project development, it is the quality of the project evaluation that is crucial for the result and generation of future knowledge. Currently there does not exist any common methodology for the evaluation of new R&D financed by the budget. Suffice it to say, the assessment of scientific and technical projects (ST projects) varies greatly depending on the type of customer - government or business structures. An extensive methodological groundwork was formed with respect to orders placed by business structures. It included “an internal administrative order” by the company management for the results of STA intended for its own ST divisions. Regretfully this is not the case with state orders in the field of STA although the issue requires state regulation and official methodological support. The article is devoted to methodological assessment of scientific and technical effectiveness of studies performed at the expense of budget funds, and suggests a new concept based on the definition of the cost-effectiveness index. Thus, the study reveals it necessary to extend the previous approach to projects of different levels - micro-, meso-, macro projects. The preliminary results of the research show that there must be a common methodological approach to underpin the financing of projects under government contracts within the framework of budget financing and stock financing. This should be developed as general guidelines as well as recommendations that reflect specific sectors of the public sector, various project levels and forms of financing, as well as different stages of project life cycle.
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Effect-directed analysis: Current status and future challenges
Hong, Seongjin; Giesy, John P.; Lee, Jung-Suk; Lee, Jong-Hyeon; Khim, Jong Seong
2016-09-01
Effect-directed analysis (EDA) has become useful for identification of toxicant(s) that occur in mixtures in the environment, especially those that are causative agents of specific adverse effects. Here, we summarize and review EDA methodology including preparation of samples, biological analyses, fractionations, and instrumental analyses, highlighting key scientific advancements. A total of 63 documents since 1999 (Scopus search) including 46 research articles, 13 review papers, and 4 project descriptions, have been collected and reviewed in this study. At the early stage (1999-2010), most studies that applied EDA focused on organic extracts of freshwater and coastal contaminated sediments and wastewater. Toxic effects were often measured using cell-based bioassays ( in vitro) and the causative chemicals were identified by use of low resolution gas chromatography with mass selective detector (GCMSD). More recently (2010-present), EDA has been extended to various matrices such as biota, soil, crude oil, and suspended solids and techniques have been improved to include determination of bioavailability in vivo. In particular, methods for non-target screenings of organic chemicals in environmental samples using cutting-edge instrumentation such as time of flight-mass spectrometry (ToF-MS), Fourier transform-ion cyclotron resonance (FT-ICR), and Orbitrap mass spectrometer have been developed. This overview provides descriptions of recent improvements of EDA and suggests future research directions based on current understandings and limitations.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hendrickson, S.M. [ed.
1994-03-01
The DOE-funded Chernobyl Studies Project was begun as part of a cooperative agreement between the US and the former USSR, (quote) To develop jointly methods to project rapidly the health effects of any future reactor accident (quote). Most of the initial tasks for this project are completed or near completion. The focus has now turned primarily to the issue of health effects from the Chernobyl accident. Currently, we are extensively engaged in case-control and cohort studies of thyroid diseases among Belarussian children and in the Ukraine. A major part of the effort is providing methods and applications of dose reconstruction and providing support and equipment for the medical teams. This document contains reports on progress in the following task areas: Management; External Dose; Hydrological Transport; Chromosome Painting Dosimetry; Stochastic Effects; Thyroid Studies; and Leukemia Studies.
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Zurovac, Jelena; Esposito, Dominick
2014-11-01
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) directed nearly US$29.2 million to comparative effectiveness research (CER) methods development. To help inform future CER methods investments, we describe the ARRA CER methods projects, identify barriers to this research and discuss the alignment of topics with published methods development priorities. We used several existing resources and held discussions with ARRA CER methods investigators. Although funded projects explored many identified priority topics, investigators noted that much work remains. For example, given the considerable investments in CER data infrastructure, the methods development field can benefit from additional efforts to educate researchers about the availability of new data sources and about how best to apply methods to match their research questions and data.
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Consequences of simulating terrestrial N dynamics for projecting future terrestrial C storage
Zaehle, S.; Friend, A. D.; Friedlingstein, P.
2009-04-01
We present results of a new land surface model, O-CN, which includes a process-based coupling between the terrestrial cycling of energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen. The model represents the controls of the terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling on carbon (C) pools and fluxes through photosynthesis, respiration, changes in allocation patterns, as well as soil organic matter decomposition, and explicitly accounts for N leaching and gaseous losses. O-CN has been shown to give realistic results in comparison to observations at a wide range of scales, including in situ flux measurements, productivity databases, and atmospheric CO2 concentration data. Notably, O-CN simulates realistic responses of net primary productivity, foliage area, and foliage N content to elevated atmospheric [CO2] as evidenced at free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) sites (Duke, Oak Ridge). We re-examine earlier model-based assessments of the terrestrial C sequestration potential using a global transient O-CN simulation driven by increases in atmospheric [CO2], N deposition and climatic changes over the 21st century. We find that accounting for terrestrial N cycling about halves the potential to store C in response to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations; mainly due to a reduction of the net C uptake in temperate and boreal forests. Nitrogen deposition partially alleviates the effect of N limitation, but is by far not sufficient to compensate for the effect completely. These findings underline the importance of an accurate representation of nutrient limitations in future projections of the terrestrial net CO2 exchanges and therefore land-climate feedback studies.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Knecht, O.
1976-01-01
Results achieved so far and future projects are portrayed in detail: 1) VDI/VDE 3527-Graphical symbols for nuclear reactor control; 2) VDI/VDE 3528-Special terms and definitons for nuclear reactor control; 3) 8 data sheets on reactor control; 4) VDI/VDE 3530-Characterisation of reactor control rod drives. (orig./HP) [de
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Project-Based Emissions Trading. The Impact of Institutional Arrangements on Cost-Effectiveness
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Woerdman, E.; Van der Gaast, W.
2001-01-01
In this paper we demonstrate that the institutional arrangement (or: design) of Joint Implementation (JI) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has a decisive impact on their cost-effectiveness. We illustrate our arguments by statistically analyzing the costs from 94 Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ) pilot phase projects as well as by adjusting these data on the basis of simple mathematical formulas. These calculations explicitly take into account the institutional differences between JI (sinks, no banking) and the CDM (banking, no sinks) under the Kyoto Protocol and also show the possible effects on credit costs of alternative design options. However, our numerical illustrations should be viewed with caution, because AIJ is only to a limited extent representative of potential future JI and CDM projects and because credit costs are not credit prices. Some of the main figures found in this study are: an average cost figure per unit of emission reduction for AIJ projects of 46 dollar per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent ($/Mg CO 2 -eq), an average potential JI credit cost figure which is lowered to 37 $/Mg CO 2 -eq by introducing banking and an average of 6 $/Mg CO 2 -eq per credit for potential low-cost CDM projects which includes sinks. However, at CoP6 in November 2000 in The Hague (The Netherlands), the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) did not (yet) reach consensus on the institutional details of the project-based mechanisms, such as the possible arrangement of early JI action or the inclusion of sinks under the CDM. 55 refs
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Outten, H Robert; Schmitt, Michael T; Miller, Daniel A; Garcia, Amber L
2012-01-01
In many Western countries, the proportion of the population that is White will drop below 50% within the next century. Two experiments examined how anticipation of these future ethnic demographics affects current intergroup processes. In Study 1, White Americans who viewed actual demographic projections for a time when Whites are no longer a numerical majority felt more angry toward and fearful of ethnic minorities than Whites who did not view future projections. Whites who viewed the future projections also felt more sympathy for their ingroup than Whites in the control condition. In Study 2, the authors replicated the effects for intergroup emotions with a sample of White Canadians. White Canadians who thought about a future in which Whites were a numerical minority appraised the ingroup as more threatened, which mediated the effect of condition on intergroup emotions. The authors discuss the implications of these findings for race relations in increasingly diverse societies.
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Temporal Compounding of Heat Waves in the Present and Projected Future
Baldwin, J. W.; Dessy, J.; Vecchi, G. A.; Oppenheimer, M.
2017-12-01
The hazard of heat waves is projected to increase significantly with global warming, motivating much recent research characterizing various aspects of these extreme events. One less examined aspect of heat waves is their temporal structure. Here we first modify existing heat wave duration definitions to flexibly account for a variety of possible heat wave temporal structures (sequences of hot and cooler days). We then examine past heat waves associated with high mortality using observational reanalysis data, and note that many past heat waves might be better described as series of hot days compounded together with short breaks of cooler days in between. We employ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global climate model (GCM) simulations to compare the frequency of these compound heat waves in the present and projected future with higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our results indicate that temporally compound heatwaves will constitute a greater proportion of heat wave risk with global warming. Via examining synthetic autoregressive model data, we propose that this phenomenon is expected when shifting the mean of a time series with some memory and noise. Notably, an increased proportion of compound events implies that vulnerability from prior hot days will play an increasingly large role in heat wave risk, with possible implications for both heat wave-related policy and preparedness.
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Hoang, Long Phi
2017-01-01
This multidisciplinary study focuses on projecting and adapting to future hydrological changes in the Mekong – an international river of global significance in terms of rapidly increasing human pressures and climate-change vulnerability. A modelling framework was developed to project future
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Cost-effectiveness of particle therapy: Current evidence and future needs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pijls-Johannesma, Madelon; Pommier, Pascal; Lievens, Yolande
2008-01-01
Purpose: Questions are being raised regarding the cost of particle therapy (PT), and with them criticism that PT is too expensive to allow the expected gain in effectiveness. This paper aims to get more insight in the cost and cost-effectiveness of particle therapy and to discuss a future strategy that allows for critical assessment of this health technology. Material and methods: A systematic literature review based on an earlier published comprehensive review was performed and updated until June 1st 2008. Besides, current business plans of PT projects were examined. Additionally, results retrieved from a cost-simulation tool developed under auspice of the ENLIGHT were discussed. Results: The current literature on cost-effectiveness of PT is scarce, non-comparable, and largely not performed according to standard health technology assessment criteria. Besides, different perspectives for cost evaluations have been used, making it difficult to compare and to determine the relative impact in terms of costs for this new treatment modality. Conclusions: Evidence on the cost-effectiveness of PT is scarce. Adequate reimbursement is necessary to support such innovative yet costly treatments. For now, model-based economic evaluations performed at least from a health care perspective may help us to gain evidence-based insight into cost-effectiveness
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Geraldi, Joana; Söderlund, Jonas
2018-01-01
Project organising is a growing field of scholarly inquiry and management practice. In recent years, two important developments have influenced this field: (1) the study and practice of projects have extended their level of analysis from mainly focussing on individual projects to focussing on micro......, and of the explanations of project practices they could offer. To discuss avenues for future research on projects and project practice, this paper suggests the notion of project studies to better grasp the status of our field. We combine these two sets of ideas to analyse the status and future options for advancing...... project research: (1) levels of analysis; and (2) type of research. Analysing recent developments within project studies, we observe the emergence of what we refer to as type 3 research, which reconciles the need for theoretical development and engagement with practice. Type 3 research suggests pragmatic...
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Olchev, Alexander; Kurbatova, Julia
2014-05-01
ET. Reduction of available nitrogen in spruce needles by 50-60% can almost completely neutralize the effect of the increase in the photosynthesis rate due to the projected future doubling of the CO2 concentration in the air and increase in temperature by the end of the 21st century. The predicted relatively small increase in ET by the end of the 21st century not exceeding 10% versus the projected increase in precipitation (about 20%) may cause a certain increase in soil moisture and surface runoff in the study area, as well as a somewhat decreased frequency of soil droughts. This study was supported by grants of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR 14-04-01568-a and 14-05-00797).
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Марія Михайлівна Греб
2015-01-01
Full Text Available In the article it is considered the applied aspects of content projecting of lexicology and phraseology teaching of future primary school teachers basing on the principles of developing education. These principles are realized gradually (theoretical, practical, research stages and stage of independent work. Also these principles are guaranteed by the system of exercises and tasks of three levels of complexity which promotes increasing of motivation, self-development, self-realization of subjects of educational process
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Mainali, Kumar P; Warren, Dan L; Dhileepan, Kunjithapatham; McConnachie, Andrew; Strathie, Lorraine; Hassan, Gul; Karki, Debendra; Shrestha, Bharat B; Parmesan, Camille
2015-12-01
Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium
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Effects of control technology on the projected krypton-85 environmental inventory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oscarson, E.E.
1973-01-01
Growth projections for the USA nuclear power industry may be used to make projections of future radioactive material inventories available for potential release to the environment. Since krypton-85 is produced in reactors, the potential routes of release to the environment are at the reactors or the fuel reprocessing plants. The present generation of reactors and fuel reprocessing plants do not use any systems to limit the release of krypton-85 into the biosphere. Clean-up systems are currently being designed and could be introduced when necessary. The cumulative inventory of krypton-85 in the environment is dependent upon the time of introduction of these clean-up systems and their efficiencies, in addition to the total quantity produced. Annual and cumulative inventories of krypton-85 are projected to increase dramatically over the next 50 years. If controls are assumed to be initiated at various years, a series of graphs of different cumulative environmental inventories and the associated doses and health effects are drawn. Varying the year of introduction and the efficiency of these systems allows one to speculate as to the optimum time for control implementation
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Quantifying the health impacts of future changes in temperature in California
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ostro, Bart; Rauch, Stephen; Green, Shelley
2011-01-01
Background: Several epidemiological studies demonstrate associations between high summer temperatures and increased mortality. However, the quantitative implications of projected future increases in temperature have not been well characterized. Objective: This study quantifies the effects of projected future temperatures on both mortality and morbidity in California, including the potential effects of mitigation. Data and methods: We first estimated the association between temperature and mortality for populations close to weather stations throughout the state. These dose–response estimates for mortality were then combined with local measures of current and projected changes in population, and projected changes in temperature, using a baseline of average temperatures from 1961 to 1990, for the years 2025 and 2050. The latter were based on two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2 and B1) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In addition, we assessed the impacts of future adaptation through use of air conditioners. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the likely range of estimates. Results: These analyses indicate that for the high emissions scenario, the central estimate of annual premature mortality ranges from 2100 to 4300 for the year 2025 and from 6700 to 11,300 for 2050. The highest estimates are from the models that use age-specific dose–response functions, while the low estimates are from the models that adjust for ozone. Estimates using the low emissions scenario are roughly half of these estimates. Mitigation based on our estimates of the effects of 10% and 20% increase in air conditioner use would generate reductions of 16% and 33% in the years 2025 and 2050, respectively. Conclusion: Our estimates suggest significant public health impacts associated with future projected increases in temperature.
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Quantifying the health impacts of future changes in temperature in California
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ostro, Bart, E-mail: Bostro@Creal.cat [Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, California Environmental Protection Agency, Oakland, CA (United States); Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology, Barcelona (Spain); Rauch, Stephen; Green, Shelley [Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, California Environmental Protection Agency, Oakland, CA (United States)
2011-11-15
Background: Several epidemiological studies demonstrate associations between high summer temperatures and increased mortality. However, the quantitative implications of projected future increases in temperature have not been well characterized. Objective: This study quantifies the effects of projected future temperatures on both mortality and morbidity in California, including the potential effects of mitigation. Data and methods: We first estimated the association between temperature and mortality for populations close to weather stations throughout the state. These dose-response estimates for mortality were then combined with local measures of current and projected changes in population, and projected changes in temperature, using a baseline of average temperatures from 1961 to 1990, for the years 2025 and 2050. The latter were based on two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2 and B1) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In addition, we assessed the impacts of future adaptation through use of air conditioners. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the likely range of estimates. Results: These analyses indicate that for the high emissions scenario, the central estimate of annual premature mortality ranges from 2100 to 4300 for the year 2025 and from 6700 to 11,300 for 2050. The highest estimates are from the models that use age-specific dose-response functions, while the low estimates are from the models that adjust for ozone. Estimates using the low emissions scenario are roughly half of these estimates. Mitigation based on our estimates of the effects of 10% and 20% increase in air conditioner use would generate reductions of 16% and 33% in the years 2025 and 2050, respectively. Conclusion: Our estimates suggest significant public health impacts associated with future projected increases in temperature.
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Projected Effect of Increased Active Travel in German Urban Regions on the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes
Brinks, Ralph; Hoyer, Annika; Kuss, Oliver; Rathmann, Wolfgang
2015-01-01
Background Future transportation policy is likely to reduce emissions in the cities and urban regions by strengthening active travel. Increased walking and cycling are known to have positive effects on health outcomes. This work estimates effects of increased active travel on type 2 diabetes in Germany, where 64% of the population live in urban regions. Methods Based on the effect size of an increased active travel scenario reported from a recent meta-analysis, we project the change in the life time risk, the proportion of prevented cases and the change in diabetes free life time in a German birth cohort (born 1985) compared to business as usual. Results The absolute risk reduction of developing type 2 diabetes before the age of 80 is 6.4% [95% confidence interval: 3.7-9.7%] for men and 4.7% [2.2-7.7%] for women, respectively. Compared to business as usual, the increased active travel scenario prevents 14.0% [8.1-21.2%] of the future cases of diabetes in men and 15.8% [9.3-23.1%] in women. Diabetes free survival increases by 1.7 [1.0-2.7] years in men and 1.4 [0.6-2.3] in women. Conclusions Our projection predicts a substantial impact of increased active travel on the future burden of type 2 diabetes. The most striking effect may be seen in the number of prevented cases. In all urban regions with an increased active travel transport policy, about one out of seven male and one out of six female cases can be prevented. PMID:25849819
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Projected effect of increased active travel in German urban regions on the risk of type 2 diabetes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ralph Brinks
Full Text Available Future transportation policy is likely to reduce emissions in the cities and urban regions by strengthening active travel. Increased walking and cycling are known to have positive effects on health outcomes. This work estimates effects of increased active travel on type 2 diabetes in Germany, where 64% of the population live in urban regions.Based on the effect size of an increased active travel scenario reported from a recent meta-analysis, we project the change in the life time risk, the proportion of prevented cases and the change in diabetes free life time in a German birth cohort (born 1985 compared to business as usual.The absolute risk reduction of developing type 2 diabetes before the age of 80 is 6.4% [95% confidence interval: 3.7-9.7%] for men and 4.7% [2.2-7.7%] for women, respectively. Compared to business as usual, the increased active travel scenario prevents 14.0% [8.1-21.2%] of the future cases of diabetes in men and 15.8% [9.3-23.1%] in women. Diabetes free survival increases by 1.7 [1.0-2.7] years in men and 1.4 [0.6-2.3] in women.Our projection predicts a substantial impact of increased active travel on the future burden of type 2 diabetes. The most striking effect may be seen in the number of prevented cases. In all urban regions with an increased active travel transport policy, about one out of seven male and one out of six female cases can be prevented.
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Past and future effects of climate change on spatially heterogeneous vegetation activity in China
Gao, Jiangbo; Jiao, Kewei; Wu, Shaohong; Ma, Danyang; Zhao, Dongsheng; Yin, Yunhe; Dai, Erfu
2017-07-01
Climate change is a major driver of vegetation activity but its complex ecological relationships impede research efforts. In this study, the spatial distribution and dynamic characteristics of climate change effects on vegetation activity in China from the 1980s to the 2010s and from 2021 to 2050 were investigated using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The GWR model was based on combined datasets of satellite vegetation index, climate observation and projection, and future vegetation productivity simulation. Our results revealed that the significantly positive precipitation-vegetation relationship was and will be mostly distributed in North China. However, the regions with temperature-dominated distribution of vegetation activity were and will be mainly located in South China. Due to the varying climate features and vegetation cover, the spatial correlation between vegetation activity and climate change may be altered. There will be different dominant climatic factors for vegetation activity distribution in some regions such as Northwest China, and even opposite correlations in Northeast China. Additionally, the response of vegetation activity to precipitation will move southward in the next three decades. In contrast, although the high warming rate will restrain the vegetation activity, precipitation variability could modify hydrothermal conditions for vegetation activity. This observation is exemplified in the projected future enhancement of vegetation activity in the Tibetan Plateau and weakened vegetation activity in East and Middle China. Furthermore, the vegetation in most parts of North China may adapt to an arid environment, whereas in many southern areas, vegetation will be repressed by water shortage in the future.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ruth, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Aden, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Warner, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Inman, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Simpkins, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Argo, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
2013-03-01
The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ruth, M.; Mai, T.; Newes, E.; Aden, A.; Warner, E.; Uriarte, C.; Inman, D.; Simpkins, T.; Argo, A.
2013-03-01
The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.
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Health effects of Chernobyl accident. A WHO·IPHECA pilot project
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iwasaki, Tamiko
1996-01-01
IPHECA (International Programme on Health Effects of Chernobyl Accident) made in 1991 includes the projects for thyroid, hematology, fetal exposure, registration for epidemiological examination and oral hygiene in Belarus. Following conclusions have been obtained by the Programme. One of serious health effects was the increase of registered diseases independent on radiation. This was mainly derived from socio-psychological effects, which were conceivably independent on direct radiation exposure. Rapid increase of thyroid cancer of children was observed in the contaminated areas, especially in Belarus. The total number of the patients in 3 countries was 565 by 1994. No significant increase of leukemia and other hematological diseases was seen. There were some data suggesting that fetal exposure resulted in mental or behavior abnormalities of newborns, which could not be fully understood because of lack of the radiological data. No difference was observed in oral diseases in Belarus and other regions. These findings can help to make the guidelines for planning and developing the future investigations and examinations. (H.O.)
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Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L
2017-08-15
The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Organizational structures of companies versus project management effectiveness
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joanna Haffer
2012-12-01
Full Text Available An organizational structure, indicated as one out of the four main organizational conditions supporting project management, has an essential meaning for project execution. This article, based on the research results, describes different organizational structures of project-orientated enterprises, enumerating their advantages and disadvantages, and reveals the influence of inter-organizational relations on project management effectiveness in enterprises operating in Poland. The results indicate that the more a character of inter-organizational relations is heading towards project structure, the higher project management effectiveness is. In the next sequence the project management processes are supported by strong matrix structures, whereas the worst outcomes are provided by functional structures. Simultaneously, it was concluded that project structures are conducive to high advancement of project management processes, and among them, especially project risk management processes as well as communication, time and cost management processes.
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Significance of Future Biogenic and Fire Emissions on Regional Aerosol Burden
Lim, A.; Tai, A. P. K.; Val Martin, M.
2017-12-01
Land-use and land cover changes have been found to substantially affect atmospheric aerosols and climate worldwide1,2, but the complex mechanisms and pathways involved in the interactions between terrestrial processes and aerosols are not well understood. Here we use a global coupled aerosol chemistry-climate-land model (CESM with CAM5 using Modal Aerosol Module 3 and CLM4.5 in Satellite Phenology mode) to investigate how aerosols respond to future climate and land-use changes, and in turn, affects cloud cover and other hydrometeorological variables in the long term. Time-sliced simulations are conducted for a base year (2000) as a base case; then three future projected scenarios for year 2050 driven by land-use and climate projections following the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.53 are conducted. The first scenario considers future projected biogenic emissions, allowing us to investigate the effect of increased plant activity and enhanced biogenic emissions due to future land-use and climate on aerosol burden. The second scenario considers future biomass burning emissions, allowing us to investigate the effect of increased biomass burning emissions due to future land-use and climate on aerosol burden. The third scenario combines the projected changes in the two emissions. We find that both biogenic and biomass burning emissions contribute significantly to local aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The contribution from biogenic emissions to local aerosol burden is smaller in magnitude (10% to 20%), but the effects are ubiquitous in many places globally. Meanwhile, the contribution from biomass burning emissions can be much higher in magnitude (63%)4, but concentrated in heavily burned regions and occurs only during burning season. Effects of both emissions are not additive since a larger flux of emissions causes greater deposition. The resulting further impacts of land-use change on regional hydrometeorology are also explored
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FutureTDM Communication and Exploitation Plan
Frew, Helen
2016-01-01
This report is designed to meet the overall objective of FutureTDM – to identify and remove TDM uptake barriers in the EU through an effective and sustainable communications strategy. It sets out a strategy to engage, to inform (showing our expertise), to be accessible and to be relevant now and post project end date. The plan explains how we are going to communicate the project, offering options both on‐line and in person, with user friendly language and a recognisable slogan...
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Pulinets, S. A.; Andrzej, K.; Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Cherniak, I.; Zakharenkova, I.; Rothkaehl, H.; Davidenko, D.
2017-12-01
The INSPIRE project is dedicated to the study of physical processes and their effects in ionosphere which could be determined as earthquake precursors together with detailed description of the methodology of ionospheric pre-seismic anomalies definition. It was initiated by ESA and carried out by international consortium. The physical mechanisms of the ionospheric pre-seismic anomalies generation from ground to the ionosphere altitudes were formulated within framework of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Coupling (LAIMC) model (Pulinets et al., 2015). The general algorithm for the identification of the ionospheric precursors was formalized which also takes into account the external Space Weather factors able to generate the false alarms. Importance of the special stable pattern called the "precursor mask" was highlighted which is based on self-similarity of pre-seismic ionospheric variations. The role of expert decision in pre-seismic anomalies interpretation for generation of seismic warning is important as well. The algorithm performance of the LAIMC seismo-ionospheric effect detection module has been demonstrated using the L'Aquila 2009 earthquake as a case study. The results of INSPIRE project have demonstrated that the ionospheric anomalies registered before the strong earthquakes could be used as reliable precursors. The detailed classification of the pre-seismic anomalies was presented in different regions of the ionosphere and signatures of the pre-seismic anomalies as detected by ground and satellite based instruments were described what clarified methodology of the precursor's identification from ionospheric multi-instrumental measurements. Configuration for the dedicated multi-observation experiment and satellite payload was proposed for the future implementation of the INSPIRE project results. In this regard the multi-instrument set can be divided by two groups: space equipment and ground-based support, which could be used for real
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Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia
Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk
2017-04-01
Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.
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Knowledge Management in a Project Environment: Organisational CT and Project Influences
Polyaninova, Taya
2011-01-01
During a project implementation various forms of information and experience are generated within the organization. If this accumulated knowledge is not recorded and shared amongst other projects, this knowledge will be lost and no longer be available to assist future projects. This may lead to increased future projects costs as resources, time and money will be wasted on redefining the knowledge that once existed within the company. By not capturing and redeploying this knowledge, the quality...
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The Future of Family Medicine: a collaborative project of the family medicine community.
Martin, James C; Avant, Robert F; Bowman, Marjorie A; Bucholtz, John R; Dickinson, John R; Evans, Kenneth L; Green, Larry A; Henley, Douglas E; Jones, Warren A; Matheny, Samuel C; Nevin, Janice E; Panther, Sandra L; Puffer, James C; Roberts, Richard G; Rodgers, Denise V; Sherwood, Roger A; Stange, Kurt C; Weber, Cynthia W
2004-01-01
Recognizing fundamental flaws in the fragmented US health care systems and the potential of an integrative, generalist approach, the leadership of 7 national family medicine organizations initiated the Future of Family Medicine (FFM) project in 2002. The goal of the project was to develop a strategy to transform and renew the discipline of family medicine to meet the needs of patients in a changing health care environment. A national research study was conducted by independent research firms. Interviews and focus groups identified key issues for diverse constituencies, including patients, payers, residents, students, family physicians, and other clinicians. Subsequently, interviews were conducted with nationally representative samples of 9 key constituencies. Based in part on these data, 5 task forces addressed key issues to meet the project goal. A Project Leadership Committee synthesized the task force reports into the report presented here. The project identified core values, a New Model of practice, and a process for development, research, education, partnership, and change with great potential to transform the ability of family medicine to improve the health and health care of the nation. The proposed New Model of practice has the following characteristics: a patient-centered team approach; elimination of barriers to access; advanced information systems, including an electronic health record; redesigned, more functional offices; a focus on quality and outcomes; and enhanced practice finance. A unified communications strategy will be developed to promote the New Model of family medicine to multiple audiences. The study concluded that the discipline needs to oversee the training of family physicians who are committed to excellence, steeped in the core values of the discipline, competent to provide family medicine's basket of services within the New Model, and capable of adapting to varying patient needs and changing care technologies. Family medicine education
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Michael E. Goerndt; Francisco X. Aguilar; Kenneth E. Skog
2015-01-01
Future use of woody biomass to produce electric power in the U.S. North can have an important influence on timber production, carbon storage in forests, and net carbon emissions from producing electric power. The Northern Forest Futures Project (NFFP) has provided regional- and state-level projections of standing forest biomass, land-use change, and timber harvest,...
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Valved, A.; Barstad, I.; Sobolowski, S.
2012-04-01
The early winter of 2011/2012 in the city of Bergen, located on the west coast of Norway, was dominated by warm, wet and extreme weather. This might be a glimpse of future average climate conditions under continued atmospheric warming and an enhanced hydrological cycle. The extreme weather events have resulted in drainage/sewage problems, landslides, flooding property damage and even death. As the Municipality plans for the future they must contend with a growing population in a geographically complex area in addition to any effects attributable to climate change. While the scientific community is increasingly confident in the projections of large scale changes over the mid - high latitudes this confidence does not extend to the local - regional scale where the magnitude and even direction of change may be highly uncertain. Meanwhile it is precisely these scales that Municipalities such as Bergen require information if they are to plan effectively. Thus, there is a need for reliable, local climate projections, which can aid policy makers and planners in decision-making. Current state of the art regional climate models are capable of providing detailed simulations on the order of 1 or 10km. However, due to the increased computational demands of these simulations, large ensembles, such as those used for GCM experiments, are often not possible. Thus, greater detail, under these circumstances, does not necessarily correspond to greater reliability. One way to deal with this issue is to apply a statistical bias correction method where model results are fitted to observationally derived probability density functions (pdfs). In this way, a full distribution of potential changes may be generated which are constrained by known, observed data.This will result in a shifted model distribution with mean and spread that more closely follows observations. In short, the method temporarily removes the climate signals from the model run working on the different percentiles, fits the
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Seismic studies for Fermilab future collider projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lauh, J.; Shiltsev, V.
1997-11-01
Ground motion can cause significant beam emittance growth and orbit oscillations in large hadron colliders due to a vibration of numerous focusing magnets. Larger accelerator ring circumference leads to smaller revolution frequency and, e.g. for the Fermilab Very Large Hadron Collider(VLHC) 50-150 Hz vibrations are of particular interest as they are resonant with the beam betatron frequency. Seismic measurements at an existing large accelerator under operation can help to estimate the vibrations generated by the technical systems in future machines. Comparison of noisy and quiet microseismic conditions might be useful for proper choice of technical solutions for future colliders. This article presents results of wide-band seismic measurements at the Fermilab site, namely, in the tunnel of the Tevatron and on the surface nearby, and in two deep tunnels in the Illinois dolomite which is though to be a possible geological environment of the future accelerators
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Chapter 11: Dinkey north and south project
M North; R. Rojas
2012-01-01
Designing and implementing vegetation treatments that can move a forest landscape toward a desired future condition is often challenging. Faced with diverse stakeholder interests and the unknown effects of changing climate conditions, managers need to engage and build collaborative projects. One such effort is the Dinkey project designed to help restore a healthy,...
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Milne, Jennifer L.; Sassoon, Richard E.; Hung, Emilie; Bosshard, Paolo; Benson, Sally M.
The Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP), at Stanford University, invests in research with the potential to lead to energy technologies with lower greenhouse gas emissions than current energy technologies. GCEP is sponsored by four international companies, ExxonMobil, GE, Schlumberger, and Toyota and supports research programs in academic institutions worldwide. Research falls into the broad areas of carbon based energy systems, renewables, electrochemistry, and the electric grid. Within these areas research efforts are underway that are aimed at achieving break-throughs and innovations that greatly improve efficiency, performance, functionality and cost of many potential energy technologies of the future including solar, batteries, fuel cells, biofuels, hydrogen storage and carbon capture and storage. This paper presents a summary of some of GCEP's activities over the past 7 years with current research areas of interest and potential research directions in the near future.
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Natalya I. Nikitina; Elena Yu. Romanovaa; Tatyana V. Vasilyeva; Irina N. Nikishina; Veronica M. Grebennikova
2017-01-01
In modern Russia professional activity productivity of social work specialist depends largely on his abilities and skills in the field of social design. University graduate`s (social work bachelor`s) high level of professional-project activity culture can be regarded as one of the necessary conditions of successful labour market adaptation of young specialists in social sphere institutions. The article discusses various aspects of future social work bachelors` vocational project activity cult...
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Waste management for the Shippingport Station Decommissioning Project
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mullee, G.R.; Schulmeister, A.R.
1987-01-01
The Shippingport Station Decommissioning Project (SSDP) is being performed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) with the objectives of placing the station in a radiologically safe condition, demonstrating safe and cost effective dismantlement and providing useful data for future decommissioning projects. This paper describes the development of the Waste Management Plan which is being used for the accomplishment of the SSDP. Significant aspects of the Plan are described, such as the use of a process control and inventory system. The current status of waste management activities is reported. It is concluded that SSDP has some unique aspects which will provide useful information for future decommissioning projects
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2011-01-01
Background Project management is widely used to deliver projects on time, within budget and of defined quality. However, there is little published information describing its use in managing health and medical research projects. We used project management in the Alcohol and Pregnancy Project (2006-2008) http://www.ichr.uwa.edu.au/alcoholandpregnancy and in this paper report researchers' opinions on project management and whether it made a difference to the project. Methods A national interdisciplinary group of 20 researchers, one of whom was the project manager, formed the Steering Committee for the project. We used project management to ensure project outputs and outcomes were achieved and all aspects of the project were planned, implemented, monitored and controlled. Sixteen of the researchers were asked to complete a self administered questionnaire for a post-project review. Results The project was delivered according to the project protocol within the allocated budget and time frame. Fifteen researchers (93.8%) completed a questionnaire. They reported that project management increased the effectiveness of the project, communication, teamwork, and application of the interdisciplinary group of researchers' expertise. They would recommend this type of project management for future projects. Conclusions Our post-project review showed that researchers comprehensively endorsed project management in the Alcohol and Pregnancy Project and agreed that project management had contributed substantially to the research. In future, we will project manage new projects and conduct post-project reviews. The results will be used to encourage continuous learning and continuous improvement of project management, and provide greater transparency and accountability of health and medical research. The use of project management can benefit both management and scientific outcomes of health and medical research projects. PMID:21635721
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Stanley J. Zarnoch; H. Ken Cordell; Carter J. Betz
2010-01-01
County-level population projections from 2010 to 2060 are developed under three national population growth scenarios for reporting in the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. These population growth scenarios are tied to global futures scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a program within the United Nations...
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pillon, S.; Wallenius, J.
2004-01-01
The FUTURE and CONFIRM projects address the issue of the design and fabrication of respectively oxide and nitride fuels for the transmutation in accelerator driven system. This paper compares advantages and drawbacks of TRU oxides and nitrides in terms of performance and fabricability. (authors)
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Projecting future drug expenditures--2009.
Hoffman, James M; Shah, Nilay D; Vermeulen, Lee C; Doloresco, Fred; Martin, Patrick K; Blake, Sharon; Matusiak, Linda; Hunkler, Robert J; Schumock, Glen T
2009-02-01
Drug expenditure trends in 2007 and 2008, projected drug expenditures for 2009, and factors likely to influence drug expenditures are discussed. Various factors are likely to influence drug expenditures in 2009, including drugs in development, the diffusion of new drugs, drug safety concerns, generic drugs, Medicare Part D, and changes in the drug supply chain. The increasing availability of important generic drugs and drug safety concerns continue to moderate growth in drug expenditures. The drug supply chain remains dynamic and may influence drug expenditures, particularly in specialized therapeutic areas. Initial data suggest that the Medicare Part D benefit has influenced drug expenditures, but the ultimate impact of the benefit on drug expenditures remains unclear. From 2006 to 2007, total U.S. drug expenditures increased by 4.0%, with total spending rising from $276 billion to $287 billion. Drug expenditures in clinics continue to grow more rapidly than in other settings, with a 9.9% increase from 2006 to 2007. Hospital drug expenditures increased at a moderate rate of only 1.6% from 2006 to 2007; through the first nine months of 2008, hospital drug expenditures increased by only 2.8% compared with the same period in 2007. In 2009, we project a 0-2% increase in drug expenditures in outpatient settings, a 1-3% increase in expenditures for clinic-administered drugs, and a 1-3% increase in hospital drug expenditures.
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Future challenges for woody biomass projections
Schadauer, K.; Barreiro, Susana; Schelhaas, M.; McRoberts, Ronald E.
2017-01-01
Many drivers affect woody biomass projections including forest available for wood supply, market behavior, forest ownership, distributions by age and yield classes, forest typologies resulting from different edaphic, climatic conditions, and last but not least, how these factors are incorporated
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Ion effects in future circular and linear accelerators
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Raubenheimer, T.O.
1995-05-01
In this paper, the author discusses ion effects relevant to future storage rings and linear colliders. The author first reviews the conventional ion effects observed in present storage rings and then discusses how these effects will differ in the next generation of rings and linacs. These future accelerators operate in a new regime because of the high current long bunch trains and the very small transverse beam emittances. Usually, storage rings are designed with ion clearing gaps to prevent ion trapping between bunch trains or beam revolutions. Regardless, ions generated within a single bunch train can have significant effects. The same is true in transport lines and linacs, where typical vacuum pressures are relatively high. Amongst other effects, the author addresses the tune spreads due to the ions and the resulting filamentation which can severely limit emittance correction techniques in future linear colliders, the bunch-to-bunch coupling due to the ions which can cause a multi-bunch instability with fast growth rates, and the betatron coupling and beam halo creation which limit the vertical emittance and beam lifetimes
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Changes in record-breaking temperature events in China and projections for the future
Deng, Hanqing; Liu, Chun; Lu, Yanyu; He, Dongyan; Tian, Hong
2017-06-01
As global warming intensifies, more record-breaking (RB) temperature events are reported in many places around the world where temperatures are higher than ever before http://cn.bing.com/dict/search?q=.&FORM=BDVSP6&mkt=zh-cn. The RB temperatures have caused severe impacts on ecosystems and human society. Here, we address changes in RB temperature events occurring over China in the past (1961-2014) as well as future projections (2006-2100) using observational data and the newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The number of RB events has a significant multi-decadal variability in China, and the intensity expresses a strong decrease from 1961 to 2014. However, more frequent RB events occurred in mid-eastern and northeastern China over last 30 years (1981-2010). Comparisons with observational data indicate multi-model ensemble (MME) simulations from the CMIP5 model perform well in simulating RB events for the historical run period (1961-2005). CMIP5 MME shows a relatively larger uncertainty for the change in intensity. From 2051 to 2100, fewer RB events are projected to occur in most parts of China according to RCP 2.6 scenarios. Over the longer period from 2006 to 2100, a remarkable increase is expected for the entire country according to RCP 8.5 scenarios and the maximum numbers of RB events increase by approximately 600 per year at end of twenty-first century.
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Quantifying the health impacts of future changes in temperature in California.
Ostro, Bart; Rauch, Stephen; Green, Shelley
2011-11-01
Several epidemiological studies demonstrate associations between high summer temperatures and increased mortality. However, the quantitative implications of projected future increases in temperature have not been well characterized. This study quantifies the effects of projected future temperatures on both mortality and morbidity in California, including the potential effects of mitigation. We first estimated the association between temperature and mortality for populations close to weather stations throughout the state. These dose-response estimates for mortality were then combined with local measures of current and projected changes in population, and projected changes in temperature, using a baseline of average temperatures from 1961 to 1990, for the years 2025 and 2050. The latter were based on two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2 and B1) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In addition, we assessed the impacts of future adaptation through use of air conditioners. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the likely range of estimates. These analyses indicate that for the high emissions scenario, the central estimate of annual premature mortality ranges from 2100 to 4300 for the year 2025 and from 6700 to 11,300 for 2050. The highest estimates are from the models that use age-specific dose-response functions, while the low estimates are from the models that adjust for ozone. Estimates using the low emissions scenario are roughly half of these estimates. Mitigation based on our estimates of the effects of 10% and 20% increase in air conditioner use would generate reductions of 16% and 33% in the years 2025 and 2050, respectively. Our estimates suggest significant public health impacts associated with future projected increases in temperature. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management.
Andersson, Agneta; Meier, H E Markus; Ripszam, Matyas; Rowe, Owen; Wikner, Johan; Haglund, Peter; Eilola, Kari; Legrand, Catherine; Figueroa, Daniela; Paczkowska, Joanna; Lindehoff, Elin; Tysklind, Mats; Elmgren, Ragnar
2015-06-01
Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 °C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.
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PROJECT AND ACTON STAGE OD DESIGNING FUTURE MUSIC TEACHERS’ ETHNOCULTURAL TRAINING
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xu Jiayu
2017-04-01
Full Text Available In the article the issue of developing future music teachers’ ethnocultural training in the process of their professional training is revealed. The author emphasizes on the relevance of the issue as future music teachers’ ethnocultural training contributes to, on the one hand, completing mastering the national system of cultural values of native people by students of higher musical educational institutions and, on the other hand, involving perception and understanding of other nations’ cultural values, allowing future music teachers to transmit values expressed by the young generation to their professional activity. It is reported that the main feature of future music teachers’ ethnocultural training is a system of ethnic and cultural values which is the background of musical and psychological-pedagogical and art training; it is actively engaged as value tools musical folk art and national art. Value methods that are involved in the process of training are methods of traditional pedagogy, as well as the basis of pedagogical communication – people’s ethics. It is noted that developing future music teachers’ ethnocultural training requires designing the special methodology. The constant items of this methodology are thought to be the forms, methods, techniques and means of pedagogical and ethnopedagogical impacts as tools for developing students’ ethnopedagogical thinking in the process of musical and pedagogical activities; the system of controlling future music teachers’ ethnopedagogical, ethnological, ethnomusical knowledge and skills as a combination of methods that enables an opportunity to compare the level of mastering the knowledge and skills at different stages of educational process; to organize tuition using innovative technologies. The special attention is paid to professional and active component of this methodology. The diagnostic tests according to the criterion of “a degree of professional effectiveness in
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Lebrun, Philippe
2010-01-01
High-energy accelerators are large projects funded by public money, developed over the years and constructed via major industrial contracts both in advanced technology and in more conventional domains such as civil engineering and infrastructure, for which they often constitute one-of markets. Assessing their cost, as well as the risk and uncertainty associated with this assessment is therefore an essential part of project preparation and a justified requirement by the funding agencies. Stemming from the experience with large circular colliders at CERN, LEP and LHC, as well as with the Main Injector, the Tevatron Collider Experiments and Accelerator Upgrades, and the NOvA Experiment at Fermilab, we discuss sources of cost variance and derive cost risk assessment methods applicable to the future linear collider, through its two technical approaches for ILC and CLIC. We also address disparities in cost risk assessment imposed by regional differences in regulations, procedures and practices.
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Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe
Guis, Helene; Caminade, Cyril; Calvete, Carlos; Morse, Andrew P.; Tran, Annelise; Baylis, Matthew
2012-01-01
Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases. PMID:21697167
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tornelli, Carlo; Zuelli, Roberto; Marinell, Mattia
2017-01-01
project, that proposes a new Web-of-Cell (WoC) power system control architecture. Dedicated visualisation features are proposed, aimed to support the control room operators activities in a WoC-oriented approach. Furthermore, the work takes into account the point of view of network operators about future...
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The Past, Present, and Future of the Air Force's Future Total Force
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Duffy, Dennis P
2004-01-01
This project examines the history of the Total Force policy since its inception in 1970 through its implementation today in an effort to determine a future direction for the Air Force's Future Total Force initiative...
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Duval, B.; Ghimire, R.; Hartman, M. D.; Marsalis, M.
2016-12-01
Large tracts of semi-arid land in the Southwestern USA are relatively less important for food production than the US Corn Belt, and represent a promising area for expansion of biofuel/bioproduct crops. However, high temperatures, low available water and high solar radiation in the SW represent a challenge to suitable feedstock development, and future climate change scenarios predict that portions of the SW will experience increased temperature and temporal shifts in precipitation distribution. Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) is a valuable forage crop with promise as a biofuel feedstock, given its high biomass under semi-arid conditions, relatively lower N fertilizer requirements compared to corn, and salinity tolerance. To evaluate the environmental impact of expanded sorghum cultivation under future climate in the SW USA, we used the DayCent model in concert with a suite of downscaled future weather projections to predict biogeochemical consequences (greenhouse gas flux and impacts on soil carbon) of sorghum cultivation in New Mexico. The model showed good correspondence with yield data from field trials including both dryland and irrigated sorghum (measured vs. modeled; r2 = 0.75). Simulation experiments tested the effect of dryland production versus irrigation, low N versus high N inputs and delayed fertilizer application. Nitrogen application timing and irrigation impacted yield and N2O emissions less than N rate and climate. Across N and irrigation treatments, future climate simulations resulted in 6% increased yield and 20% lower N2O emissions compared to current climate. Soil C pools declined under future climate. The greatest declines in soil C were from low N input sorghum simulations, regardless of irrigation (>20% declines in SOM in both cases), and requires further evaluation to determine if changing future climate is driving these declines, or if they are a function of prolonged sorghum-fallow rotations in the model. The relatively small gain in yield for
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Future reservoir management under climate change for the Mississippi River
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Asnaashari, Ahmad; Gharabaghi, Bahram; McBean, Edward A.; Kunjikutty, Sobhalatha; Lehman, Paul; Wade, Winston
2010-01-01
This paper is part of an ongoing research project designed to evaluate the effect of climate change on reservoir operation policies in the Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority. The study used the results from a first paper, including projected daily temperature and precipitation, for future streamflow calculation. This paper presented the development, calibration and validation of a rainfall-runoff NAM model for the Mississippi River watershed. The calibrated Mike11/NAM model was fed with predicted climatic data to generate long term future streamflow in the basin. Forecast flows were run in a Mike 11/HD model to estimate the corresponding lake levels. The storages and flows at Shabomeka Lake, Mazinaw Lake and Marble Lake were simulated. The results showed that climate change is likely to have implications for reservoir operations in the Mississippi River watershed, which will include changed water level regimes due to modifications in the projected future streamflow hydrograph to meet desired lake levels.
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Temporal Doppler Effect and Future Orientation: Adaptive Function and Moderating Conditions.
Gan, Yiqun; Miao, Miao; Zheng, Lei; Liu, Haihua
2017-06-01
The objectives of this study were to examine whether the temporal Doppler effect exists in different time intervals and whether certain individual and environmental factors act as moderators of the effect. Using hierarchical linear modeling, we examined the existence of the temporal Doppler effect and the moderating effect of future orientation among 139 university students (Study 1), and then the moderating conditions of the temporal Doppler effect using two independent samples of 143 and 147 university students (Studies 2 and 3). Results indicated that the temporal Doppler effect existed in all of our studies, and that future orientation moderated the temporal Doppler effect. Further, time interval perception mediated the relationship between future orientation and the motivation to cope at long time intervals. Finally, positive affect was found to enhance the temporal Doppler effect, whereas control deprivation did not influence the effect. The temporal Doppler effect is moderated by the personality trait of future orientation and by the situational variable of experimentally manipulated positive affect. We have identified personality and environmental processes that could enhance the temporal Doppler effect, which could be valuable in cases where attention to a future task is necessary. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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Mouri, Goro; Nakano, Katsuhiro; Tsuyama, Ikutaro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki
2016-08-01
Forest disturbance (or land-cover change) and climatic variability are commonly recognised as two major drivers interactively influencing hydrology in forested watersheds. Future climate changes and corresponding changes in forest type and distribution are expected to generate changes in rainfall runoff that pose a threat to river catchments. It is therefore important to understand how future climate changes will effect average rainfall distribution and temperature and what effect this will have upon forest types across Japan. Recent deforestation of the present-day coniferous forest and expected increases in evergreen forest are shown to influence runoff processes and, therefore, to influence future runoff conditions. We strongly recommend that variations in forest type be considered in future plans to ameliorate projected climate changes. This will help to improve water retention and storage capacities, enhance the flood protection function of forests, and improve human health. We qualitatively assessed future changes in runoff including the effects of variation in forest type across Japan. Four general circulation models (GCMs) were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble including multiple physics configurations and different reference concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), the results of which have produced monthly data sets for the whole of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on forest type in Japan are based on the balance amongst changes in rainfall distribution, temperature and hydrological factors. Methods for assessing the impact of such changes include the
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Projected future climate changes in the context of geological and geomorphological hazards.
Liggins, Felicity; Betts, Richard A; McGuire, Bill
2010-05-28
On palaeoclimate time scales, enhanced levels of geological and geomorphological activity have been linked to climatic factors, including examples of processes that are expected to be important in current and future anthropogenic climate change. Planetary warming leading to increased rainfall, ice-mass loss and rising sea levels is potentially relevant to geospheric responses in many geologically diverse regions. Anthropogenic climate change, therefore, has the potential to alter the risk of geological and geomorphological hazards through the twenty-first century and beyond. Here, we review climate change projections from both global and regional climate models in the context of geohazards. In assessing the potential for geospheric responses to climate change, it appears prudent to consider regional levels of warming of 2 degrees C above average pre-industrial temperature as being potentially unavoidable as an influence on processes requiring a human adaptation response within this century. At the other end of the scale when considering changes that could be avoided by reduction of emissions, scenarios of unmitigated warming exceeding 4 degrees C in the global average include much greater local warming in some regions. However, considerable further work is required to better understand the uncertainties associated with these projections, uncertainties inherent not only in the climate modelling but also in the linkages between climate change and geospheric responses.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhenliang Yin
2017-11-01
Full Text Available This study aims to project future variability of reference evapotranspiration (ET0 using artificial intelligence methods, constructed with an extreme-learning machine (ELM and support vector regression (SVR in a mountainous inland watershed in north-west China. Eight global climate model (GCM outputs retrieved from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 were employed to downscale monthly ET0 for the historical period 1960–2005 as a validation approach and for the future period 2010–2099 as a projection of ET0 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The following conclusions can be drawn: the ELM and SVR methods demonstrate a very good performance in estimating Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO-56 Penman–Monteith ET0. Variation in future ET0 mainly occurs in the spring and autumn seasons, while the summer and winter ET0 changes are moderately small. Annually, the ET0 values were shown to increase at a rate of approximately 7.5 mm, 7.5 mm, 0.0 mm (8.2 mm, 15.0 mm, 15.0 mm decade−1, respectively, for the near-term projection (2010–2039, mid-term projection (2040–2069, and long-term projection (2070–2099 under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5 scenario. Compared to the historical period, the relative changes in ET0 were found to be approximately 2%, 5% and 6% (2%, 7% and 13%, during the near, mid- and long-term periods, respectively, under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5 warming scenarios. In accordance with the analyses, we aver that the opportunity to downscale monthly ET0 with artificial intelligence is useful in practice for water-management policies.
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Future development of project management competences.
Silvius, A.J.G.; Batenburg, R.
2009-01-01
This paper describes a study into the expected development of the competences of the project manager in the year 2027. The study was performed amongst the members of IPMA-Netherlands during the summer of 2007. In the study the 46 competences of the International Competence Baseline 3 (ICB 3) were
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Project Management Effectiveness: the choice - formal or informal controls
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jon Heales
2007-12-01
Full Text Available Development failures and runaway projects in the information systems (IS area can result in substantial losses to organizations, either financially or to a company’s reputation. One important strategy in mitigating risk is the use of effective controls over IS projects. This research investigates the effectiveness of control mechanisms in IS projects, i.e., how they have been established, applied, and how they have evolved throughout the project. We conducted an in-depth study of six information systems projects with six different project managers. We found that formal controls were adopted on project elements with clearly defined project outcomes and informal controls were adopted mainly on project elements that were unclear and often related to people. Furthermore, formal controls were dominant at project initiation and in most cases these controls became less dominant over the project duration. These formal controls were more rigorously applied in external IS projects while informal controls increased in importance throughout the project duration in internally developed projects. We found the existence of informal controls to be very important in helping ensure successful project outcomes.
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Description of future drought indices in Virginia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hyunwoo Kang
2017-10-01
Full Text Available This article presents projected future drought occurrences in five river basins in Virginia. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 climate models were used to derive input variables of multiple drought indices, such as the Standardized Soil Moisture index (SSI, the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI, and the Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI for both historic and future periods. The results of SSI indicate that there was an overall increase in agricultural drought occurrences and that these were caused by increases in evapotranspiration and runoff. However, the results of the MSDI and MPDSI projected a decrease in drought occurrences in future periods due to a greater increase in precipitation in the future. Furthermore, GCM-downscaled products (precipitation and temperature were verified using comparisons with historic observations, and the results of uncertainty analyses suggest that the lower and upper bounds of future drought projections agree with historic conditions.
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Navarro-Ortega, Alícia; Acuña, Vicenç; Bellin, Alberto; Burek, Peter; Cassiani, Giorgio; Choukr-Allah, Redouane; Dolédec, Sylvain; Elosegi, Arturo; Ferrari, Federico; Ginebreda, Antoni; Grathwohl, Peter; Jones, Colin; Rault, Philippe Ker; Kok, Kasper; Koundouri, Phoebe; Ludwig, Ralf Peter; Merz, Ralf; Milacic, Radmila; Muñoz, Isabel; Nikulin, Grigory; Paniconi, Claudio; Paunović, Momir; Petrovic, Mira; Sabater, Laia; Sabaterb, Sergi; Skoulikidis, Nikolaos Th; Slob, Adriaan; Teutsch, Georg; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos; Barceló, Damià
2015-01-15
Water scarcity is a serious environmental problem in many European regions, and will likely increase in the near future as a consequence of increased abstraction and climate change. Water scarcity exacerbates the effects of multiple stressors, and thus results in decreased water quality. It impacts river ecosystems, threatens the services they provide, and it will force managers and policy-makers to change their current practices. The EU-FP7 project GLOBAQUA aims at identifying the prevalence, interaction and linkages between stressors, and to assess their effects on the chemical and ecological status of freshwater ecosystems in order to improve water management practice and policies. GLOBAQUA assembles a multidisciplinary team of 21 European plus 2 non-European scientific institutions, as well as water authorities and river basin managers. The project includes experts in hydrology, chemistry, biology, geomorphology, modelling, socio-economics, governance science, knowledge brokerage, and policy advocacy. GLOBAQUA studies six river basins (Ebro, Adige, Sava, Evrotas, Anglian and Souss Massa) affected by water scarcity, and aims to answer the following questions: how does water scarcity interact with other existing stressors in the study river basins? How will these interactions change according to the different scenarios of future global change? Which will be the foreseeable consequences for river ecosystems? How will these in turn affect the services the ecosystems provide? How should management and policies be adapted to minimise the ecological, economic and societal consequences? These questions will be approached by combining data-mining, field- and laboratory-based research, and modelling. Here, we outline the general structure of the project and the activities to be conducted within the fourteen work-packages of GLOBAQUA. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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Navarro-Ortega, Alícia; Acuña, Vicenç; Bellin, Alberto; Burek, Peter; Cassiani, Giorgio; Choukr-Allah, Redouane; Dolédec, Sylvain; Elosegi, Arturo; Ferrari, Federico; Ginebreda, Antoni; Grathwohl, Peter; Jones, Colin; Rault, Philippe Ker; Kok, Kasper; Koundouri, Phoebe; Ludwig, Ralf Peter; Merz, Ralf; Milacic, Radmila; Muñoz, Isabel; Nikulin, Grigory; Paniconi, Claudio; Paunović, Momir; Petrovic, Mira; Sabater, Laia; Sabaterb, Sergi; Skoulikidis, Nikolaos Th.; Slob, Adriaan; Teutsch, Georg; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos; Barceló, Damià
2015-01-01
Water scarcity is a serious environmental problem in many European regions, and will likely increase in the near future as a consequence of increased abstraction and climate change. Water scarcity exacerbates the effects of multiple stressors, and thus results in decreased water quality. It impacts river ecosystems, threatens the services they provide, and it will force managers and policy-makers to change their current practices. The EU-FP7 project GLOBAQUA aims at identifying the prevalence, interaction and linkages between stressors, and to assess their effects on the chemical and ecological status of freshwater ecosystems in order to improve water management practice and policies. GLOBAQUA assembles a multidisciplinary team of 21 European plus 2 non-European scientific institutions, as well as water authorities and river basin managers. The project includes experts in hydrology, chemistry, biology, geomorphology, modelling, socio-economics, governance science, knowledge brokerage, and policy advocacy. GLOBAQUA studies six river basins (Ebro, Adige, Sava, Evrotas, Anglian and Souss Massa) affected by water scarcity, and aims to answer the following questions: how does water scarcity interact with other existing stressors in the study river basins? How will these interactions change according to the different scenarios of future global change? Which will be the foreseeable consequences for river ecosystems? How will these in turn affect the services the ecosystems provide? How should management and policies be adapted to minimise the ecological, economic and societal consequences? These questions will be approached by combining data-mining, field- and laboratory-based research, and modelling. Here, we outline the general structure of the project and the activities to be conducted within the fourteen work-packages of GLOBAQUA. PMID:25005236
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pinson, Pierre
2015-01-01
The changing face of energy production in Europe necessitates a rethink in the way that electricity markets are structured. The ‘5s’ (Future Electricity Markets) project is a multi-disciplinary project that is looking to challenge the current approach to the design and operation of electricity...
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nurfarhana Ayuni Joha; Mohamad Puad Abu; Izhar Abu Hussin; Ridzuan Abdul Mutalib; Zareen Khan Abdul Jalil Khan; Mohd Khairulezwan Abdul Manan; Mohd Sabri Minhat; Mohd Idris Taib
2013-01-01
The PUSPATI TRIGA MARK II research reactor in Malaysia was commissioned in 1982. After 31 years of operation, Nuclear Malaysia is taking an approach for a better research and development in nuclear radiations as well as the technical services that provided. Reactor TRIGA PUSPATI (RTP) is currently upgrading its control console from analogue to digital system. The Reactor Digital Instrumentation and Control System (ReDICS) project is done on cooperation with Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), Korea including the technical part from the design stage until commissioning as well as the Technology Transfer Program (TTP). TTP in this ReDICS project is a part of Human Resource and System Development Program. It was carried out from the design stage until the commissioning of the system. It covers all subjects related to the design on the digital system and the requirements for the operation of RTP. The objective of this paper is to share the knowledge and experiences gained through this ReDICS project. This paper will also discuss the future expectations from this ReDICS project for Nuclear Malaysia and its personnel, as well as to the country. (author)
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Guinotte, J.M.; Buddemeier, R.W.; Kleypas, J.A.
2003-01-01
Marginal reef habitats are regarded as regions where coral reefs and coral communities reflect the effects of steady-state or long-term average environmental limitations. We used classifications based on this concept with predicted time-variant conditions of future climate to develop a scenario for the evolution of future marginality. Model results based on a conservative scenario of atmospheric CO2 increase were used to examine changes in sea surface temperature and aragonite saturation state over the Pacific Ocean basin until 2069. Results of the projections indicated that essentially all reef locations are likely to become marginal with respect to aragonite saturation state. Significant areas, including some with the highest biodiversity, are expected to experience high-temperature regimes that may be marginal, and additional areas will enter the borderline high temperature range that have experienced significant ENSO-related bleaching in the recent past. The positive effects of warming in areas that are presently marginal in terms of low temperature were limited. Conditions of the late 21st century do not lie outside the ranges in which present-day marginal reef systems occur. Adaptive and acclimative capabilities of organisms and communities will be critical in determining the future of coral reef ecosystems.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kusunoki, Shoji; Mizuta, Ryo [Meteorological Research Institute, Climate Research Department, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Matsueda, Mio [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)
2011-12-15
Global warming projection experiments were conducted using a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model, focusing on the change in the rain band of East Asian summer monsoon. To assess the uncertainty of climate change projections, we performed ensemble simulations with the 60-km resolution model combining four different SSTs and three atmospheric initial conditions. In the present-day climate simulations, the 20-km model reproduces the rain band of East Asian summer monsoon better than lower resolution models in terms of geographical distribution and seasonal march. In the future climate simulation by the 20-km model, precipitation increases over the Yangtze River valley in May through July, Korean peninsula in May, and Japan in July. The termination of rainy season over Japan tends to be delayed until August. Ensemble simulations by the 60-km model show that precipitation in the future climate for July increases over the Yangtze River valley, the East China Sea and Japan. These changes in precipitation are partly consistent with those projected by the 20-km model. Simulations by the 20-km and 60-km models consistently show that in the future climate the termination of rainy season over Japan tends to be delayed until August. The changes in the vertically integrated water vapor flux show the intensification of clockwise moisture transport over the western Pacific subtropical high. Most precipitation changes over the East Asia can be interpreted as the moisture convergence resulting from change in the horizontal transport of water vapor. (orig.)
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Carroll, T.O.
1978-04-01
Recent state and regional energy crises demonstrate the delicate balance between energy systems, the environment, and the economy. Indeed, the interaction between these three elements of society is very complex. This project develops curriculum materials that would better provide students with an understanding and awareness of fundamental principles of energy supply, conversion processes, and utilization now and in the future. The project had two specific objectives: to transfer knowledge of energy systems, analysis techniques, and advanced technologies from the energy analyst community to the teacher participants; and to involve teachers in the preparation of modular case studies on energy issues for use within the classroom. These curriculum modules are intended to enhance the teacher's ability to provide energy-related education to students within his or her own academic setting. The project is organized as a three-week summer program, as noted in the flyer (Appendix A). Mornings are spent in seminars with energy and environmental specialists (their handout lecture notes are included as Appendix B); afternoons are devoted to high school curriculum development based on the seminar discussions. The curriculum development is limited to five areas: conservation, electricity demand scheduling, energy in the food system, new technologies (solar, wind, biomass), and environment. Appendix C consists of one-day lession plans in these areas.
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Future road salt use in Switzerland: an example of an effective climate service
Zubler, Elias M.; Fischer, Andreas M.; Schlegel, Thomas H.; Liniger, Mark A.
2015-04-01
The application of salt is the predominant measure taken to enhance road safety in Switzerland by clearing the roads from snow or preventing frozen surfaces during winter. The need for road salt exhibits a strong interannual variability, according to Schweizer Salinen AG - the Swiss monopolist for production and distribution of road salt. These fluctuations are to a large extent a direct consequence of the year-to-year variability in winter climate. In the course of the 21st century, Swiss climate is projected to depart significantly from present and past conditions. By the end of the century, winter temperatures over Switzerland are expected to rise by about 2-4°C relative to the mean over the period 1980-2009, while winter precipitation may either increase or decrease based on ENSEMBLES regional climate model projections under the SRES-scenario A1B. Faced with these changes, Schweizer Salinen AG asked for an estimate of the expected future road salt use for designing their long-term business strategy. The study is based on climate change projections from the CH2011 initiative and later extensions thereof as well as monthly sales data of road salt from Schweizer Salinen AG. For the period 1997-2013, a linear relationship was derived between the average number of days with snowfall and the road salt amount sold over "saltation years" defined from October 1st to September 30th in the 26 cantons (provinces) of Switzerland. The ad-hoc linear relationship was applied to the climate change projections to obtain future salt use information in three future periods for the greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B, A2 and RCP3PD. We find that the expected future salt use is likely to be reduced by about 50% in 2045-2074 under the scenario A1B. Currently, the countrywide mean annual road salt use corresponds to about 220'000 tons. In a particularly snow-rich year, the company sells up to 400'000 tons. At the end of the century, following a pessimistic scenario such as A1B or A
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A model of the environmental impacts of hydropower projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kemppainen, T.; Haemaelaeinen, I.
1992-01-01
The aim was to create a model of the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects in Finland. To illustrate the effects of hydropower projects a checklist in the form of matrice was constructed. In this matrice all issues that could be significant in future hydropower projects were collected. Stable physical environmental changes are the starting-point for this matrice. The temporary change of hydropower constructions have also been under consideration. These are mainly environmental changes during construction. In chapter two the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects physical environmental changes were examined. In chapter three the matrice was applied to some example cases. The cases were chosen to represent future hydropower projects. In addition these example cases represent urban areas, rural areas and uninhabited areas. The example cases were the extension of Tainionkoski hydropower plant at Vuoksi river, the modernization of Aeetsae power plant at Kokemaeenjoki river, the modernization of Stadsfors power plant at Lapuanjoki river in the centre of Uusikaarlepyy town and the construction of Kaitfors power plant at Perhonjoki river. Conclusions from usability of the model can be drawn on the ground of the example cases. The purpose of the model is to produce a checklist of estimated environmental effects in hydropower project of various kinds. Examination of issues within the model depends on local circumstances. Endangered animal and plant species, for example, can be studied and estimated only if endangered animal and plant species exist in the area of hydropower plant. Furthermore, the direction and extent of environmental effects depend on the local circumstances. The model is mainly a checklist of environmental effects caused by hydropower plant projects
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Global drivers of future river flood risk
Winsemius, Hessel C.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Bouwman, Arno; Jongman, Brenden; Kwadijk, Jaap C. J.; Ligtvoet, Willem; Lucas, Paul L.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Ward, Philip J.
2016-04-01
Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk projections that separate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development. The projections are based on an ensemble of climate model outputs, socio-economic scenarios, and a state-of-the-art hydrologic river flood model combined with socio-economic impact models. Globally, absolute damage may increase by up to a factor of 20 by the end of the century without action. Countries in Southeast Asia face a severe increase in flood risk. Although climate change contributes significantly to the increase in risk in Southeast Asia, we show that it is dwarfed by the effect of socio-economic growth, even after normalization for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. African countries face a strong increase in risk mainly due to socio-economic change. However, when normalized to GDP, climate change becomes by far the strongest driver. Both high- and low-income countries may benefit greatly from investing in adaptation measures, for which our analysis provides a basis.
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Team effectiveness in Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) projects.
Latif, Khawaja Fawad; Williams, Nigel
2017-10-01
The incorporation of team context into research and practice regarding team effectiveness in NGOs projects is a constant challenge. The research seeks to address the gap and identify the critical determinants of team effectiveness in projects undertaken by non-governmental organizations. Using a systematic process, the study involved both literature and focus group discussions to generate the required items. A total of 157 respondents (Team Members and Team Leaders) were part of the study that filled the questionnaires. Using exploratory factor analysis followed by confirmatory factor analysis, both convergent and discriminant validity was established. The present study found that team effectiveness in NGO social projects has a total of seven dimensions namely: Inter team coordination, community social linkage, team performance, knowledge, skills, and attitudes, leadership communication and engagement, decision making and information sharing, and team formation. There is a significant lack of research on team effectiveness in NGO projects. Where considerably large proportion of research on team effectiveness has focused on the corporate sector, the non-governmental teams have been neglected. This study clearly highlights the determinants that make up team effectiveness in NGOs. The determinants identified will help to specifically look at the effectiveness of teams in NGO projects. The study would help NGOs identify the dimensions in which they may be performing in a weaker manner and direct their energies in improving the factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Floridian heatwaves and extreme precipitation: future climate projections
Raghavendra, Ajay; Dai, Aiguo; Milrad, Shawn M.; Cloutier-Bisbee, Shealynn R.
2018-02-01
Observational analysis and climate modeling efforts concur that the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves will increase as the Earth's mean climate shifts towards warmer temperatures. While the impacts and mechanisms of heatwaves have been well explored, extreme temperatures over Florida are generally understudied. This paper sheds light on Floridian heatwaves by exploring 13 years of daily data from surface observations and high-resolution WRF climate simulations for the same timeframe. The characteristics of the current and future heatwaves under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario for 2070-2099 were then investigated. Results show a tripling in the frequency, and greater than a sixfold increase in the mean duration of heatwaves over Florida when the current standard of heatwaves was used. The intensity of heatwaves also increased by 4-6 °C due to the combined effects of rising mean temperatures and a 1-2 °C increase attributed to the flattening of the temperature distribution. Since Florida's atmospheric boundary layer is rich in moisture and heatwaves could further increase the moisture content in the lower troposphere, the relationship between heatwaves and extreme precipitation was also explored in both the current and future climate. As expected, rainfall during a heatwave event was anomalously low, but it quickly recovered to normal within 3 days after the passage of a heatwave. Finally, the late 21st-century climate could witness a slight decrease in the mean precipitation over Florida, accompanied by heavier heatwave-associated extreme precipitation events over central and southern Florida.
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Overview of ITER project. Objective, history, status of development, structure and its future
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matsuda, S.
2003-01-01
The objective of ITER Project is to demonstrate the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy for peaceful use. To achieve this goal, the Conceptual Design Activities (CDA 1988-1990) and the Engineering Design Activities (EDA 1992-2001) were conducted by the joint effort of EU, Japan, RF and US under the auspices of IAEA. Engineering design has been developed consistently with plasma physics databases obtained by the world-wide magnetic fusion devices up to and during the EDA. Technology R and D including development, manufacturing and testing of scalable models of major components have been also conducted and ensured manufacturing and technical feasibility of ITER. Such technical readiness to start ITER construction urged formal government negotiation initially by Canada, EU, Japan and RF, and intense meetings have been held since November 2001. The US and China have joined since Feb. 2003. Four candidate sites have been proposed by Canada, EU and Japan for construction and have been evaluated. Once the agreement will be made, the construction takes about 10 years to complete, followed by the operation and exploitation phase lasting about 20 years. This paper gives an overview of ITER Project including its role in the long range fusion program, history, status of development, collaboration structure and its future program. (author)
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Effect of bond administration on construction project delivery
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Oke Ayodeji Emmanuel
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Construction bond administration involves management of bond issues from inception of obtaining bond from guarantor to the point of release of contractor by the client. This process has posted a lot of challenges to construction stakeholders; it is therefore, necessary to examine the relationship between bond administration and project success. Archival data of completed bonded building projects were gathered through a pro forma developed for this purpose. Using Pearson product moment of correlation, it was revealed that the cost of securing a construction bond has a positive and significant effect on the initial and final costs of the project, while the number of days needed to secure a construction bond has no significant effect on the initial and final durations of the construction project. In order to establish the relationship between project delivery indices of cost and time and the construction bond administration variables, iteration of linear regression was adopted to arrive at the best-fit equation. Factors affecting the cost of securing construction bonds from guarantors should be identified and given adequate attention by construction stakeholders in order to minimize the effect of construction bond administration on project delivery.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adel Badri
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Although risk management tools are put to good use in many industrial sectors, some large projects have been met with numerous problems due to failure to take occupational health and safety (OHS into consideration. In spite of the high level of risk and uncertainty associated with many industrial projects, the number of studies of methods for managing all known risks systematically remains small. Under effervescent economic conditions, industries must meet several challenges associated with frequent project start-ups. In highly complex and uncertain environments, rigorous management of risk remains indispensable for avoiding threats to the success of projects. Many businesses seek continually to create and improve integrated approaches to risk management. This article puts into perspective the complexity of the challenge of integrating OHS into industrial project risk management. A conceptual and methodological approach is proposed to guide future research focused on meeting this challenge. The approach is based on applying multi-disciplinary research modes to a complex industrial context in order to identify all scenarios likely to contain threats to humans or the environment. A case study is used to illustrate the potential of the proposed approach for application and its contribution to meeting the challenge of taking OHS into consideration. On-site researchers were able to develop a new approach that helped two mining companies in Quebec (Canada to achieve successful integration of OHS into expansion projects.
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Modelling land-use effects of future urbanization using cellular automata
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, B.; Hansen, H.S.
2013-01-01
project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2040 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and modelled using the cellular automata model LUCIA. For the modelling, an Eastern......The modelling of land use change is a way to analyse future scenarios by modelling different pathways. Application of spatial data of different scales coupled with socio-economic data makes it possible to explore and test the understanding of land use change relations. In the EU-FP7 research...... Danish case area was selected, comprising of the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different descriptive GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban density and structure...
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Tidd PFBC demonstration project
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Marrocco, M. [American Electric Power, Columbus, OH (United States)
1997-12-31
The Tidd project was one of the first joint government-industry ventures to be approved by the US Department of Energy (DOE) in its Clean Coal Technology Program. In March 1987, DOE signed an agreement with the Ohio Power Company, a subsidiary of American Electric Power, to refurbish the then-idle Tidd plant on the banks of the Ohio River with advanced pressurized fluidized bed technology. Testing ended after 49 months of operation, 100 individual tests, and the generation of more than 500,000 megawatt-hours of electricity. The demonstration plant has met its objectives. The project showed that more than 95 percent of sulfur dioxide pollutants could be removed inside the advanced boiler using the advanced combustion technology, giving future power plants an attractive alternative to expensive, add-on scrubber technology. In addition to its sulfur removal effectiveness, the plant`s sustained periods of steady-state operation boosted its availability significantly above design projections, heightening confidence that pressurized fluidized bed technology will be a reliable, baseload technology for future power plants. The technology also controlled the release of nitrogen oxides to levels well below the allowable limits set by federal air quality standards. It also produced a dry waste product that is much easier to handle than wastes from conventional power plants and will likely have commercial value when produced by future power plants.
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Organizational structures of companies versus project management effectiveness
Joanna Haffer
2012-01-01
An organizational structure, indicated as one out of the four main organizational conditions supporting project management, has an essential meaning for project execution. This article, based on the research results, describes different organizational structures of project-orientated enterprises, enumerating their advantages and disadvantages, and reveals the influence of inter-organizational relations on project management effectiveness in enterprises operating in Poland. The results indicat...
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The future of the Canadian oil sands: Engineering and project management advances
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Madden, Peter; Morawski, Jacek
2010-09-15
Production technology and project management developments in Canada's oil sands industry, in the context of AMEC's experience as EPCM service provider, are discussed. Effective project management systems and workfront planning are critical to achieve cost and schedule targets and optimum construction execution. Construction Work Packages divide work into discrete pieces and Construction Work Execution Plans influence scheduling of engineering and procurement deliverables. AMEC's Engineering Data Warehouse works with intelligent engineering design tools to ensure information related to a piece of equipment is consistent across all systems. HSSE systems are proactively developed and AMEC's progressive improvement in safety performance is demonstrated.
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Managing projects using a project management approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marko D. Andrejić
2011-04-01
these objectives should be like. Requirements and effects of the application of project management The goal of the project management methodology is to assist the manager in all of these elements, but also to provide a uniform way of evaluating his performance as an objective comparison of indicators in all projects that are implemented in the system. Project management methodology Efficient business operations and fulfilling the requests of users, or buyers if business is done for the third parties, require modern planning and management of projects using computers and appropriate software. Given that the project management with the help of network models requires frequent and rapid processing of large amount of data, it is obvious that the application of computers in this area is of utmost importance. System of reporting on project implementation To achieve effective monitoring, control and implementation of control actions, it is necessary to organize an effective reporting system that will provide timely and realistic information about the real state of the project, in terms of job performing time, the resources spent and the costs of project implementation. Concept of risk management In any project there are many different risk events by type, the probability of appearance, manner and size of the impact of the project. The process of testing the nature of risk events in the project as well as their potential impact on the outcome of the project and their interdependence are realized through the risk analysis. Conclusion Methodologies of project management surged from these differences, when it became apparent that a unified approach to the problem of project managing does not meet the unique project requirements. Taking into account that in the future projects will become more complex and that the methodology of project management will be required to deal with such projects, a proper selection of methodology within the organization is extremely important.
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Procrastination, consideration of future consequences, and episodic future thinking.
Rebetez, Marie My Lien; Barsics, Catherine; Rochat, Lucien; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Van der Linden, Martial
2016-05-01
Despite the intrinsic temporal nature of procrastination, little research has examined the link between this form of self-regulatory failure and the consideration of future consequences, and no study has addressed the link between procrastination and episodic future thinking. The aim of the present study was to explore these relationships. Participants were asked to project themselves into possible future events and to rate the amount of sensory-perceptual details and autonoetic consciousness associated with their representations. They were also asked to complete questionnaires that assessed procrastination, the consideration of future consequences, and negative affect. Results showed that both the consideration of future consequences and episodic future thinking were associated with procrastination, and in particular with procrastination-related decision making abilities and procrastination-related motivational dispositions, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Leverage effect in energy futures
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Krištoufek, Ladislav
2014-01-01
Roč. 45, č. 1 (2014), s. 1-9 ISSN 0140-9883 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GP14-11402P Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/0948 Program:GA Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : energy commodities * leverage effect * volatility * long-term memory Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.708, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/kristoufek-0433531.pdf
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Future climate and wildfire: ecosystem projections of area burned in the western US
Littell, J. S.; Duffy, P.; Battisti, D. S.; McKenzie, D.; Peterson, D. L.
2010-12-01
The area burned by fire in ecosystems of the western United States has been closely linked to climate in the paleoecological record and in the modern record. Statistical models of area burned show that the climatic controls on area burned vary with vegetation type (Littell et al. 2009). In more arid or systems (grasslands, shrublands, woodlands), antecedent climatic controls on fire were associated first with the production of fuels and secondarily with drought in the year of fire. These relationships typically manifested as wetter and sometimes cooler conditions in the seasons prior to the fire season. Area burned in forest ecosystems and some woodlands was primarily associated with drought conditions, specifically increased temperature and decreased precipitation in the year of fire and the seasons leading up to the fire season. These climatic controls indicate the role of climate in drying existing fuels. Statistical fire models trained on the late 20th century for ecoprovinces in the West would be useful for projecting area burned, at least until vegetation type conversion driven by climate and disturbance occurs. To that end, we used ~ 2.5 degree gridded future climate fields derived for a multi-GCM ensemble of 1C and 2C temperature increase forcing to develop future ecoprovince monthly and seasonal average temperature and associated precipitation and used these as predictors in statistical fire models of future projected area burned. We also conducted modeling scenarios with the ensemble temperature increase paired with historical precipitation. Most ecoprovinces had increases in area burned, with a range of ~ 67% to over 600% . Ecoprovinces that are primarily sensitive to precipitation changes exhibit smaller increases than those most sensitive to temperature (forest systems). We also developed exceedance probabilities. Some ecoprovinces show large increases in area burned but low exceedance probabilities, suggest that the area burned is concentrated more
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Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ji-Woo Lee
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.
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Future electric scenarios for urban logistics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
2012-07-01
This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)
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Future electric scenarios for urban logistics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
2012-07-01
This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)
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Effectively utilizing NYMEX contracts for natural gas electricity futures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Burke, L.M.
1996-01-01
NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) is one of the United States' largest commodity exchanges. The primary role of commodity exchanges were summarized as well as the characteristics of an effective exchange. The concept of commoditization, price risk and price volatility were explained. The evolution of world and domestic regulated energy markets, the characteristics of the futures market, NYMEX electricity futures contract specifications, natural gas and crude futures contract development, and the nature of hedging were reviewed. Differences of risk management practices in cash markets and futures markets were illustrated. tabs., figs
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Li, Guoxing; Guo, Qun; Liu, Yang; Li, Yixue; Pan, Xiaochuan
2018-04-01
Global warming has attracted worldwide attention. Numerous studies have indicated that stroke is associated with temperature; however, few studies are available on the projections of the burden of stroke attributable to future climate change. We aimed to investigate the future trends of stroke years of life lost (YLL) associated with global warming. We collected death records to examine YLL in Tianjin, China, from 2006 to 2011. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson regression model after controlling for trends, day of the week, relative humidity, and air pollution. We estimated temperature-YLL associations with a distributed lag nonlinear model. These models were then applied to the local climate projections to estimate temperature-related YLL in the 2050s and 2070s. We projected temperature-related YLL from stroke in Tianjin under 19 global-scale climate models and 3 different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results showed a slight decrease in YLL with percent decreases of 0.85%, 0.97%, and 1.02% in the 2050s and 0.94%, 1.02%, and 0.91% in the 2070s for the 3 scenarios, respectively. The increases in heat-related annual YLL and the decreases in cold-related YLL under the high emission scenario were the strongest. The monthly analysis showed that the most significant increase occurred in the summer months, particularly in August, with percent changes >150% in the 2050s and up to 300% in the 2070s. Future changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related YLL, and this increase will not be offset by adaptation under both medium emission and high emission scenarios. Health protections from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold effects will also remain important. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.
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submitter Status of the Demonstrator Magnets for the EuCARD-2 Future Magnets Project
Kirby, G; Badel, A; Bajko, M; Ballarino, A; Bottura, L; Dhalle, M; Durante, M; Fazilleau, P; Fleiter, J; Goldacker, W; Haro, E; Himbele, J; Kario, A; Langeslag, S; Lorin, C; Murtzomaki, J; van Nugteren, J; de Rijk, G; Salmi, T; Senatore, C; Stenvall, A; Tixador, P; Usoskin, A; Volpini, G; Yang, Y; Zangenberg, N
2016-01-01
EuCARD-2 is a project partly supported by FP7 European Commission aiming at exploring accelerator magnet technology for 20-T dipole operating field. The EuCARD-2 collaboration is liaising with similar programs for high-field magnets in the U.S. and Japan. EuCARD-2 focuses, through the work package 10 “future magnets,” on the development of a 10-kA-class superconducting high-current-density cable suitable for accelerator magnets, for a 5-T stand-alone dipole of 40-mm bore and about 1-m length. After stand-alone testing, the magnet will be inserted in a large bore background dipole, 10-18 T. This paper reports on the design and development of models, which are called Feather0, wound with REBCO Roebel cable. Based on aligned block design to take advantage of the anisotropy of the REBCO tapes, Feather0 is a precursor of Feather2, which should reach the project goals in 2016. Feather0 is planned to be tested both in stand alone and as an insert mounted in the CERN Fresca facility providing 10-T background fiel...
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He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wuebbles, Donald J.
2018-04-01
This study investigates the future U.S. PM2.5 pollution under multiple emissions scenarios, climate states, and long-range transport (LRT) effects using the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model integrated with a regional climate model. CMAQ with fixed chemical lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) successfully reproduces the present-day PM2.5 pollution and its major species in rural and suburban areas, but has some discrepancies in urban areas such as the Los Angeles Basin, where detailed emissions and meteorology conditions cannot be resolved by the 30 km grid. Its performance is slightly worsened when using dynamic chemical LBCs from global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, which provide cleaner conditions into the CMAQ lateral boundaries. Under future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios, CMAQ projects large PM2.5 reductions (∼40% for A1B and ∼20% for A1Fi scenario) in the eastern United States, but slight to moderate increases (∼5% for A1B and ∼10% for A1Fi) in the western United States. The projected increases are particularly large (up to 30%) near the Mexico-U.S. border, suggesting that Mexico is a major source for future U.S. PM2.5 pollution. The effect from climate change alone is estimated to increase PM2.5 levels ubiquitously (∼5% for both A1B and A1Fi) over the United States, except for a small decrease in the Houston, Texas area, where anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions dominate. This climate penalty, however, is substantially smaller than effects of emissions change, especially in the eastern United States. Future PM2.5 pollution is affected substantially (up to -20%) by changes in SO2 emissions and moderately (3-5%) by changes in NOx and NH3 emissions. The long-range transport (LRT) effects, which are estimated by comparing CMAQ simulations with fixed and dynamic LBCs, are regional dependent, causing up to 10-20% decrease over the western United
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Projecting future solid waste management requirements on the Hanford Site
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shaver, S.R.; Stiles, D.L.; Holter, G.M.; Anderson, B.C.
1990-09-01
The problem of treating and disposing of hazardous transuranic (TRU), low-level radioactive, and mixed waste has become a major concern of the public and the government. At the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site in Washington state, the problem is compounded by the need to characterize, retrieve, and treat the solid waste that was generated and stored for retrieval during the past 20 years. This paper discusses the development and application of a Solid Waste Projection Model that uses forecast volumes and characteristics of existing and future solid waste to address the treatment, storage, and disposal requirements at Hanford. The model uses a data-driven, object-oriented approach to assess the storage and treatment throughout requirements for each operation for each of the distinct waste classes and the accompanying cost of the storage and treatment operations. By defining the elements of each alternative for the total waste management system, the same database can be used for numerous analyses performed at different levels of detail. This approach also helps a variety of users with widely varying information requirements to use the model and helps achieve the high degree of flexibility needed to cope with changing regulations and evolving treatment and disposal technologies. 2 figs
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Measuring the effects of using ICT/BIM in construction projects
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lambrecht, Jan Fuglsig; Vestergaard, Flemming; Karlshøj, Jan
2016-01-01
This paper focuses on presenting part of the findings from a research project completed in the period of 2009-2013.The research project was funded by the Danish Building & Property Agency with the primary aim to identify and measure the economic effects of using ICT/BIM in construction projects....... Firstly, this paper presents a conceptual evaluation method developed in order to define and describe how case studies focusing on use of ICT/BIM in construction projects could be completed in order to measure (both quantitatively and qualitatively) the effects achieved from using ICT/BIM in construction...... projects. In this context effects are defined both as tangible and intangible effects (both economically and non-economically) directly and/or indirectly as a consequence of using ICT/BIM in a construction project. Secondly, the paper presents and analyses findings achieved from completing four case...
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Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data
Parajuli, Ranjan; Nyaupane, Narayan; Kalra, Ajay
2017-12-01
Flooding is a severe and costlier natural hazard. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with a proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The floodplain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural areas in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in the recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best-fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on an HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows an extreme increase in future design flood. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer, and stakeholders.
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Ensuring effective project management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ward, J.N.
1980-01-01
A brief description is given of the organisation methods employed by the Bechtel Power Corporation, in their contract with Mississippi Power and Light Company for the design, construction and procurement activities for the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station. The aim is to ensure effective management, and good communications at all stages of construction, between the project team and the client. (U.K.)
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Andersen, C. [Labrador Inuit Association, NF (Canada)
2004-07-01
This PowerPoint presentation provided an update on effective partnerships and best practices reported in Canadian mining, forestry and energy projects. The forestry and mining industries have provided most of the models and best practices for natural resource projects. This presentation described the approach to negotiations for the Voisey's Bay Nickel Project and future steps for commercial success. The lessons learned were also discussed with particular reference to corporate agendas that help advance Aboriginal participation. The presentation outlined the expected results from Voisey's Bay Nickel Company Impact Benefit Agreement with the Labrador Inuit Association and the Innu Nation. The issue of responsible environmental management was also discussed along with long-term opportunities for jobs, education and business opportunities for Newfoundland and Labrador residents. figs.
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LFC15: physics prospects for linear and other future colliders after the discovery of the Higgs
De Curtis, Stefania; Moretti, Stefano; Pancheri, Giulia
2016-01-01
This workshop will explore the impact of QCD effects on the choice of future high energy accelerators, where to pursue effective studies of the BEH (Brout-Englert-Higgs) boson in view of ascertaining its true nature. We shall discuss the implications of the fact that its hadronic signatures are indeed the least accessible ones at present and examine possible origins of the BEH boson from physics Beyond the Standard Model. The workshop will include presentations from leading participants in studies of future projects, both Linear and Circular colliders, including Cosmic Ray projects as well. Comparison with LHC results from the coming run at 13 TeV and the future high luminosity option will highlight the new frontiers to explore.
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Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert
2018-01-01
Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth’s climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased
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Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert
2017-11-01
Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased
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Temperature response to future urbanization and climate change
Argüeso, Daniel; Evans, Jason P.; Fita, Lluís; Bormann, Kathryn J.
2014-04-01
This study examines the impact of future urban expansion on local near-surface temperature for Sydney (Australia) using a future climate scenario (A2). The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate the present (1990-2009) and future (2040-2059) climates of the region at 2-km spatial resolution. The standard land use of the model was replaced with a more accurate dataset that covers the Sydney area. The future simulation incorporates the projected changes in the urban area of Sydney to account for the expected urban expansion. A comparison between areas with projected land use changes and their surroundings was conducted to evaluate how urbanization and global warming will act together and to ascertain their combined effect on the local climate. The analysis of the temperature changes revealed that future urbanization will strongly affect minimum temperature, whereas little impact was detected for maximum temperature. The minimum temperature changes will be noticeable throughout the year. However, during winter and spring these differences will be particularly large and the increases could be double the increase due to global warming alone at 2050. Results indicated that the changes were mostly due to increased heat capacity of urban structures and reduced evaporation in the city environment.
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Finding Futures: A Spatio-Visual Experiment In Participatory Engagement
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Davies, Sarah Rachael; Selin, Cynthia; Gano, Gretchen
2013-01-01
The Finding Futures Project explores innovative ways of deliberating the future of cities through an emphasis on embodied spatio-visual engagement with urban landscapes. The first instantiation of the project - which took place in Lisbon in 2011 - is reported through a discussion of the project's...
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SiC/SiC fuel cladding R and D Project 'SCARLET': Status and future plan
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kishimoto, Hirotatsu; Kohyama, Akira
2015-01-01
This paper provides the recent progress in SiC/SiC development towards early utilisation for LWRs based on NITE method. After the March 11 Disaster in East-Japan, ensuring safe technology for LWR became a top priority R and D in nuclear energy policy of Japan. Along this line, replacement of Zircaloy claddings with SiC/SiC based fuel cladding is becoming one of the most attractive options and a MEXT fund based project, SCARLET, and a METI fund based project have been launched as 5-year termed projects at Muroran Institute of Technology. These projects care for NITE process for making long SiC/SiC fuel pins and connecting technology integration. The SCARLET project also includes coolant compatibility and irradiation effect evaluations as LWR and LMFBR materials. The outline and the present status of the SCARLET project will be briefly introduced in the present paper. (authors)
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Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Hattermann, F.; Pinto, J. G.; Ulbrich, U.; Böhm, U.; Born, K.; Büchner, M.; Donat, M. G.; Kücken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Nissen, K.; Nocke, T.; Österle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Werner, P. C.; Burghoff, O.; Broecker, U.; Kubik, A.
2012-04-01
We present an overview of a complementary-approaches impact project dealing with the consequences of climate change for the natural hazard branch of the insurance industry in Germany. The project was conducted by four academic institutions together with the German Insurance Association (GDV) and finalized in autumn 2011. A causal chain is modeled that goes from global warming projections over regional meteorological impacts to regional economic losses for private buildings, hereby fully covering the area of Germany. This presentation will focus on wind storm related losses, although the method developed had also been applied in part to hail and flood impact losses. For the first time, the GDV supplied their collected set of insurance cases, dating back for decades, for such an impact study. These data were used to calibrate and validate event-based damage functions which in turn were driven by three different types of regional climate models to generate storm loss projections. The regional models were driven by a triplet of ECHAM5 experiments following the A1B scenario which were found representative in the recent ENSEMBLES intercomparison study. In our multi-modeling approach we used two types of regional climate models that conceptually differ at maximum: a dynamical model (CCLM) and a statistical model based on the idea of biased bootstrapping (STARS). As a third option we pursued a hybrid approach (statistical-dynamical downscaling). For the assessment of climate change impacts, the buildings' infrastructure and their economic value is kept at current values. For all three approaches, a significant increase of average storm losses and extreme event return levels in the German private building sector is found for future decades assuming an A1B-scenario. However, the three projections differ somewhat in terms of magnitude and regional differentiation. We have developed a formalism that allows us to express the combined effect of multi-source uncertainty on return
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El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew
2016-01-01
An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean
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Behind the scenes of GS: Mapping the future of CERN
Sophie Louise Hetherton
2014-01-01
Focus on the Future Accelerator Studies (FAS) section at CERN who carry out the civil engineering studies for the Laboratory’s future scientific facilities. The Future Accelerator Studies (FAS) section co-ordinates the civil engineering and infrastructure studies for large-scale future physics projects. These include projects due to complete in a couple of years such as AWAKE, but also projects planned for ten years’ time such as the High Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) or even longer term projects such as the Future Circular Collider (FCC), for which approval is still pending. “CERN needs to be able to study the feasibility and assess the risks of future projects, even though they are not all fully approved,” explains John Osborne, Head of the FAS section, which also includes two fellows and one technical student. “Our small team works closely with other groups across CERN and with external companies to provide studies from a civil engineering poin...
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Highlights from the Future Earth Water-Energy-Food (W-E-F) Nexus Cluster Project Consultations
Lawford, R. G.
2017-12-01
Future Earth launched its W-E-F Nexus project in 2015. The focus of the project was to explore how improved governance and integrated information systems could support sustainability in the W-E-F Nexus. Workshops were held in four regions of the world (North America, Europe, Eastern Asia, and Southern Africa) which facilitated a better understanding of the current role of information in decision-making within the W-E-F Nexus. In each of these workshops, needs and options for improving the provision of relevant integrated data and information to support decision-making were discussed. The workshops provided distinct perspectives on W-E-F issues for each region and each sector. Regional differences arise from climate, geomorphology, natural resources and existing infrastructure as well as the economic and social policies within each country. While the needs associated with this diversity are large, it is still possible to identify unifying themes and requirements for data and information which appeared very similar in all the regions. Important themes involve developing a common rigorous definition of the Nexus, ensuring the availability of data of all types are available in the scales, frequencies, and accuracies needed to support better decision making; and promoting the gathering, analysis and use of information to break down the silos associated with the three sectors are made. Information is also needed to monitor the effects of land ownership and land management on W-E-F issues, to maximize the efficiencies that can be realized from joint planning and increased coherence in the sectoral policy approaches to address climate and environmental issues. After commenting on these opportunities the presentation will outline possible elements of a research agenda for moving the W-E-F Nexus approach forward.
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Not my future? Core values and the neural representation of future events.
Brosch, Tobias; Stussi, Yoann; Desrichard, Olivier; Sander, David
2018-06-01
Individuals with pronounced self-transcendence values have been shown to put greater weight on the long-term consequences of their actions when making decisions. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the neural mechanisms underlying the evaluation of events occurring several decades in the future as well as the role of core values in these processes. Thirty-six participants viewed a series of events, consisting of potential consequences of climate change, which could occur in the near future (around 2030), and thus would be experienced by the participants themselves, or in the far future (around 2080). We observed increased activation in anterior VMPFC (BA11), a region involved in encoding the personal significance of future events, when participants were envisioning far future events, demonstrating for the first time that the role of the VMPFC in future projection extends to the time scale of decades. Importantly, this activation increase was observed only in participants with pronounced self-transcendence values measured by self-report questionnaire, as shown by a statistically significant interaction of temporal distance and value structure. These findings suggest that future projection mechanisms are modulated by self-transcendence values to allow for a more extensive simulation of far future events. Consistent with this, these participants reported similar concern ratings for near and far future events, whereas participants with pronounced self-enhancement values were more concerned about near future events. Our findings provide a neural substrate for the tendency of individuals with pronounced self-transcendence values to consider the long-term consequences of their actions.
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Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet energy balance driving the surface melt
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. Franco
2013-01-01
Full Text Available In this study, simulations at 25 km resolution are performed over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, using the regional climate model MAR forced by four RCP scenarios from three CMIP5 global circulation models (GCMs, in order to investigate the projected changes of the surface energy balance (SEB components driving the surface melt. Analysis of 2000–2100 melt anomalies compared to melt results over 1980–1999 reveals an exponential relationship of the GrIS surface melt rate simulated by MAR to the near-surface air temperature (TAS anomalies, mainly due to the surface albedo positive feedback associated with the extension of bare ice areas in summer. On the GrIS margins, the future melt anomalies are preferentially driven by stronger sensible heat fluxes, induced by enhanced warm air advection over the ice sheet. Over the central dry snow zone, the surface albedo positive feedback induced by the increase in summer melt exceeds the negative feedback of heavier snowfall for TAS anomalies higher than 4 °C. In addition to the incoming longwave flux increase associated with the atmosphere warming, GCM-forced MAR simulations project an increase of the cloud cover decreasing the ratio of the incoming shortwave versus longwave radiation and dampening the albedo feedback. However, it should be noted that this trend in the cloud cover is contrary to that simulated by ERA-Interim–forced MAR for recent climate conditions, where the observed melt increase since the 1990s seems mainly to be a consequence of more anticyclonic atmospheric conditions. Finally, no significant change is projected in the length of the melt season, which highlights the importance of solar radiation absorbed by the ice sheet surface in the melt SEB.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Meier, H E Markus; Andersson, Helén C; Arheimer, Berit
2012-01-01
Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850–2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850–2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient...... forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961–2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air- and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from...... a pessimistic ‘business-as-usual’ to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher...
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Pollution prevention projects in the Netherlands
de Bruijn, Theo; Coenen, Franciscus H.J.M.; Lulofs, Kristiaan R.D.
1996-01-01
As part of its waste matter prevention policy, the Dutch government has tried over the past few years to stimulate pollution prevention in firms by means of so-called stimulation and learning projects. To be able to determine the effectiveness of future policies, an extensive evaluation study was
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Ng, Kok-Hoe
2016-06-01
The study aims to project future trends in living arrangements and access to children's cash contributions and market income sources among older people in Hong Kong. A cell-based model was constructed by combining available population projections, labour force projections, an extrapolation of the historical trend in living arrangements based on national survey datasets and a regression model on income sources. Under certain assumptions, the proportion of older people living with their children may decline from 59 to 48% during 2006-2030. Although access to market income sources may improve slightly, up to 20% of older people may have no access to either children's financial support or market income sources, and will not live with their children by 2030. Family support is expected to contract in the next two decades. Public pensions should be expanded to protect financially vulnerable older people. © 2015 AJA Inc.
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The Effects of Weather on Oilseed Rape (OSR Yield in China: Future Implications of Climate Change
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yaqin He
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Understanding the role of climatic factors on crop yields is essential in predicting the future impact of climate change. In order to understand the influence of climatic factors on OSR, detailed farm-level panel data from 2566 farms across 67 counties of the 6 major OSR production regions in China, from the surveys conducted by the national OSR industry project between 2008 and 2013, were used to examine the contribution of changes in selected climatic variables between 2008 and 2013 to yield variation. Spatial and temporal patterns of the relationships between OSR yield, climatic factors were estimated together with the effects of farmer adaptation and management practices on yield variability. The analysis revealed that yields in the low-latitude production regions were more sensitive to temperature increases and likely to decline. Precipitation iwas the most influential factor on yield at the first two growth stages; temperature and sunshine hours were most important at the third and fourth growth stages, respectively. Labour input was the most influential management factor affecting yields compared with fertilizer and other inputs. The study concludes that projection of future climate change impacts will need inter alia to incorporate more sophisticated and detailed measures of climatic variables than simple means of temperature and precipitation, incorporating timing in relation to plant growth and yield.
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Effective Safety Management in Construction Project
Othman, I.; Shafiq, Nasir; Nuruddin, M. F.
2017-12-01
Effective safety management is one of the serious problems in the construction industry worldwide, especially in large-scale construction projects. There have been significant reductions in the number and the rate of injury over the last 20 years. Nevertheless, construction remains as one of the high risk industry. The purpose of this study is to examine safety management in the Malaysian construction industry, as well as to highlight the importance of construction safety management. The industry has contributed significantly to the economic growth of the country. However, when construction safety management is not implemented systematically, accidents will happen and this can affect the economic growth of the country. This study put the safety management in construction project as one of the important elements to project performance and success. The study emphasize on awareness and the factors that lead to the safety cases in construction project.
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Workforce development and effective evaluation of projects.
Dickerson, Claire; Green, Tess; Blass, Eddie
The success of a project or programme is typically determined in relation to outputs. However, there is a commitment among UK public services to spending public funds efficiently and on activities that provide the greatest benefit to society. Skills for Health recognised the need for a tool to manage the complex process of evaluating project benefits. An integrated evaluation framework was developed to help practitioners identify, describe, measure and evaluate the benefits of workforce development projects. Practitioners tested the framework on projects within three NHS trusts and provided valuable feedback to support its development. The prospective approach taken to identify benefits and collect baseline data to support evaluation was positively received and the clarity and completeness of the framework, as well as the relevance of the questions, were commended. Users reported that the framework was difficult to complete; an online version could be developed, which might help to improve usability. Effective implementation of this approach will depend on the quality and usability of the framework, the willingness of organisations to implement it, and the presence or establishment of an effective change management culture.
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Broer, P Niclas; Levine, Steven M; Juran, Sabrina
2014-03-01
The objective of this article was to evaluate past and current trends regarding aesthetic operations in the United States and to project future changes regarding such procedures. Cosmetic surgery statistics from the American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery from 1997 to 2012 were analyzed by sex, age, and ethnic group. Then, using population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau based on the 2010 census, two projection scenarios of the expected number of aesthetic plastic surgery procedures were generated. The scenarios included the presumed occurrence and nonoccurrence of a recession like that which occurred in 2007. Aesthetic procedures are expected to grow from 1,688,694 in 2012 to 3,847,929 by 2030, representing an average annual growth rate of 7.1 percent. Should another recession of similar degree to the one in 2007 occur, procedures would increase to only 2,086,994, displaying an average annual growth percentage rate of 1.3 percent. Because the age distribution of the patient population will change, preferences for specific procedures according to age influence-and thus are reflected in-future demand for those procedures. Furthermore, the ethnic profile of patients will change significantly, with 32 percent of all procedures being performed on patients other than Caucasians by 2030. Demand for aesthetic plastic surgical procedures is expected to continue to grow, while depending on the economic performance at the macro level and changing demographic dynamics of the U.S. population. Considering all investigated factors and trends among all patients, the most commonly requested procedures by 2030 are likely to be (1) breast augmentations, (2) lipoplasties, and (3) blepharoplasties.
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McPherson, Michelle Yvonne; García-García, Almudena; José Cuesta-Valero, Francisco; Beltrami, Hugo; Hansen-Ketchum, Patti; MacDougall, Donna; Hume Ogden, Nicholas
2017-04-01
A number of studies have assessed possible climate change impacts on the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis. However, most have used surface air temperature from only one climate model simulation and/or one emission scenario, representing only one possible climate future. We quantified effects of different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and climate model outputs on the projected future changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) of I. scapularis to explore uncertainties in future R0 estimates. We used surface air temperature generated by a complete set of General Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to hindcast historical and forecast future effects of climate change on the R0 of I. scapularis. As in previous studies, R0 of I. scapularis increased with a warming climate under future projected climate. Increases in the multi-model mean R0 values showed significant changes over time under all RCP scenarios, however; only the estimated R0 mean values between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 showed statistically significant differences. Our results highlight the potential for climate change to have an effect on future Lyme disease risk in Canada even if the Paris Agreement's goal to keep global warming below 2°C is achieved, although mitigation reducing emissions from RCP8.5 levels to those of RCP6.0 or less would be expected to slow tick invasion after the 2030s. On-going planning is needed to inform and guide adaptation in light of the projected range of possible futures.
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A Framework for Effective Software Monitoring in Project Management
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A Framework for Effective Software Monitoring in Project Management. ... is shown to provide meaningful interpretation of collected metric data by embedding certain quality function. Key words: Project Management, Feedback, project control, metrics, process model, quantitative validity ... AJOL African Journals Online.
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Estimating uranium resources and production. A guide to future supply
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Taylor, D.M.; Haeussermann, W.
1983-01-01
Nuclear power can only continue to grow if sufficient fuel, uranium, is available. Concern has been expressed that, in the not too distant future, the supply of uranium may be inadequate to meet reactor development. This will not be the case. Uranium production capability, actual and planned, is the main indicator of short- and medium-term supply. However, for the longer term, uranium resource estimates and projections of the possible rate of production from the resource base are important. Once an estimate has been made of the resources contained in a deposit, several factors influence the decision to produce the uranium and also the rates at which the uranium can be produced. The effect of these factors, which include uranium market trends and ever increasing lead times from discovery to production, must be taken into account when making projections of future production capability and before comparing these with forecasts of future uranium requirements. The uranium resource base has developed over the last two decades mainly in response to dramatically changing projections of natural uranium requirements. A study of this development and the changes in production, together with the most recent data, shows that in the short- and medium-term, production from already discovered resources should be sufficient to cover any likely reactor requirements. Studies such as those undertaken during the International Uranium Resources Evaluation Project, and others which project future discovery rates and production, are supported by past experience in resource development in showing that uranium supply could continue to meet demand until well into the next century. The uranium supply potential has lessened the need for the early large-scale global introduction of the breeder reactor
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CAUSE AND EFFECT IN PROMOTING A PROJECT
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
SEVERIAN-VLĂDUȚ IACOB
2013-12-01
Full Text Available For a project to be considered successful it is necessary, besides a proper coordination, to be also done a good and wide promotion. In view of communication, promotion and maintenance ensures the organization's image. Disturbances occurring in any type of project, as a result of poor promotion, affect the image of the team and highlight the weaknesses in its management. Therefore, the promotion should be permanently monitored and evaluated. Cause-effect analysis is one of the ways we can identify some of nonconformities of the promotion process within a project.
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Research on the margin of futures markets and the policy spillover effect
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Difang Wan; Yang Yang; Dong Fang; Guang Yang
2011-01-01
Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the change of margin in Chinese futures markets has policy spillover effects.Design/methodology/approach-The paper constructs a model based on Harzmark and on Chng,taking Chinese futures markets status quo as a single species and restrictions on foreign investment into consideration,introduces the assumptions of spillover effect of speculators,then obtains investor's demand function.Subsequently,the effects of Shanghai Futures Exchange's 11 instances of margin changing are analyzed.Findings-The paper finds that in the Chinese futures market,margin changing has impact on the open interest (OI) and the speculator spillover effect is validated.Research limitations/implications-The irrational behavior of investors in markets is not taken into account in the model and data about spillover speculators were not directly available.Originality/value-The paper usefully analyzes the effects of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's 11 instances of margin changing from 2000 to 2007 and examines the actual effects of margin-changing policy,in the views of OI,trading volume and the externality,the results showing that margin changing has impact on investor structure and validates the existence of the assumed speculator spillover effect.
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In modelling effects of global warming, invalid assumptions lead to unrealistic projections.
Lefevre, Sjannie; McKenzie, David J; Nilsson, Göran E
2018-02-01
In their recent Opinion, Pauly and Cheung () provide new projections of future maximum fish weight (W ∞ ). Based on criticism by Lefevre et al. (2017) they changed the scaling exponent for anabolism, d G . Here we find that changing both d G and the scaling exponent for catabolism, b, leads to the projection that fish may even become 98% smaller with a 1°C increase in temperature. This unrealistic outcome indicates that the current W ∞ is unlikely to be explained by the Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT) and, therefore, GOLT cannot be used as a mechanistic basis for model projections about fish size in a warmer world. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Jaehyeong, L.; Kim, Y.; Erfanian, A.; Wang, G.; Um, M. J.
2017-12-01
This study utilizes the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to investigate the projected effect of vegetation feedbacks on drought in West Africa using the Regional Climate Model coupled to the NCAR Community Land Model with both the Carbon and Nitrogen module (CN) and Dynamic Vegetation module (DV) activated (RegCM-CLM-CN-DV). The role of vegetation feedbacks is examined based on simulations with and without dynamic vegetation. The four different future climate scenarios from CCSM, GFDL, MIROC and MPI are used as the boundary conditions of RegCM for two historical and future periods, i.e., for 1981 to 2000 and for 2081 to 2100, respectively. Using SPEI, the duration, frequency, severity and spatial extents are quantified over West Africa and analyzed for two regions of the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea. In this study, we find that the estimated annual SPEIs clearly indicate that the projected future droughts over the Sahel are enhanced and prolonged when DV is activated. The opposite is shown over the Gulf of Guinea in general. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800), by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180 and by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).
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Yuan, Fei; Zhao, Chongxu; Jiang, Yong; Ren, Liliang; Shan, Hongcui; Zhang, Limin; Zhu, Yonghua; Chen, Tao; Jiang, Shanhu; Yang, Xiaoli; Shen, Hongren
2017-11-01
Projections of hydrological changes are associated with large uncertainties from different sources, which should be quantified for an effective implementation of water management policies adaptive to future climate change. In this study, a modeling chain framework to project future hydrological changes and the associated uncertainties in the Xijiang River basin, South China, was established. The framework consists of three emission scenarios (ESs), four climate models (CMs), four statistical downscaling (SD) methods, four hydrological modeling (HM) schemes, and four probability distributions (PDs) for extreme flow frequency analyses. Direct variance method was adopted to analyze the manner by which uncertainty sources such as ES, CM, SD, and HM affect the estimates of future evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow, and to quantify the uncertainties of PDs in future flood and drought risk assessment. Results show that ES is one of the least important uncertainty sources in most situations. CM, in general, is the dominant uncertainty source for the projections of monthly ET and monthly streamflow during most of the annual cycle, daily streamflow below the 99.6% quantile level, and extreme low flow. SD is the most predominant uncertainty source in the projections of extreme high flow, and has a considerable percentage of uncertainty contribution in monthly streamflow projections in July-September. The effects of SD in other cases are negligible. HM is a non-ignorable uncertainty source that has the potential to produce much larger uncertainties for the projections of low flow and ET in warm and wet seasons than for the projections of high flow. PD contributes a larger percentage of uncertainty in extreme flood projections than it does in extreme low flow estimates. Despite the large uncertainties in hydrological projections, this work found that future extreme low flow would undergo a considerable reduction, and a noticeable increase in drought risk in the Xijiang
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zanten, L. van
2001-01-01
The FAO/IAEA Co-ordinated Research Project has brought together sesame breeders from 11 countries. They, together with pathologists, agronomists and physiologists, have made considerable effort to advance the genetic improvement in sesame. The results and conclusions from this project cover the mutation techniques used for the genetic improvement of various aspects of sesame. These recommendations do not only deal with the application of mutation induction, but also with the wider plant breeding related objectives and methods to be considered for this semi-domesticated crop. It is clear that more advanced techniques can and should be incorporated in the process which would enhance the genetic improvement. Although five years is a relatively limited time in a plant breeding programme, the participants have been able to produce and make available a considerable pool of agronomically interesting mutant sesame germplasm. The participants in the CRP considered that, together with other specialists, plant breeders can gain fuller benefit from the mutations induced by radiation or chemicals. Work on these mutants must continue in co-operation/consultation with plant physiologists and pathologists, and with biotechnologists who may in the future be able to provide in the future methods for introducing beneficial traits from other crops into sesame. The sesame programme should include scientists from the Member States where sesame grows and scientists from developed countries who may have greater access to physiological and molecular research facilities. (author)
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Shiohara, Y.; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T.; Yamada, Y.
2008-09-01
Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of Ic and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose Ic value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO 2. About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO 2 doping showed a high Ic value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high Ic value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high Ic values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The Ic × L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current-limiters and cryocoolers. Some of the new themes already revealed the
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shiohara, Y.; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T.; Yamada, Y.
2008-01-01
Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of I c and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose I c value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO 2 . About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO 2 doping showed a high I c value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high I c value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high I c values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The I c x L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current-limiters and cryocoolers. Some of the new themes already
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; Dunphy, R. T.; Vimmerstedt, L.
2013-03-01
Planning initiatives in many regions and communities aim to reduce transportation energy use, decrease emissions, and achieve related environmental benefits by changing land use. This report reviews and summarizes findings from existing literature on the relationship between the built environment and transportation energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying results trends as well as potential future actions. The indirect influence of federal transportation and housing policies, as well as the direct impact of municipal regulation on land use are examined for their effect on transportation patterns and energy use. Special attention is given to the 'four D' factors of density, diversity, design and accessibility. The report concludes that policy-driven changes to the built environment could reduce transportation energy and GHG emissions from less than 1% to as much as 10% by 2050, the equivalent of 16%-18% of present-day urban light-duty-vehicle travel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Porter, C. D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Brown, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Dunphy, R. T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States)
2013-03-15
Planning initiatives in many regions and communities aim to reduce transportation energy use, decrease emissions, and achieve related environmental benefits by changing land use. This report reviews and summarizes findings from existing literature on the relationship between the built environment and transportation energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying results trends as well as potential future actions. The indirect influence of federal transportation and housing policies, as well as the direct impact of municipal regulation on land use are examined for their effect on transportation patterns and energy use. Special attention is given to the 'four D' factors of density, diversity, design and accessibility. The report concludes that policy-driven changes to the built environment could reduce transportation energy and GHG emissions from less than 1% to as much as 10% by 2050, the equivalent of 16%-18% of present-day urban light-duty-vehicle travel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Grenzeback, L. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Brown, A. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Fischer, M. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Hutson, N. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Lamm, C. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Pei, Y. L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vyas, A. D. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Winebrake, J. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)
2013-03-01
Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and by extrapolation, to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050, requiring ever-greater amounts of energy. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand; the possible trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand and related energy use. After describing federal policy actions that could influence freight demand, the report then summarizes the available analytical models for forecasting freight demand, and identifies possible areas for future action.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; DeFlorio, J.; McKenzie, E.; Tao, W.; Vimmerstedt, L.
2013-03-01
Since the 1970s, numerous transportation strategies have been formulated to change the behavior of drivers or travelers by reducing trips, shifting travel to more efficient modes, or improving the efficiency of existing modes. This report summarizes findings documented in existing literature to identify strategies with the greatest potential impact. The estimated effects of implementing the most significant and aggressive individual driver behavior modification strategies range from less than 1% to a few percent reduction in transportation energy use and GHG emissions. Combined strategies result in reductions of 7% to 15% by 2030. Pricing, ridesharing, eco-driving, and speed limit reduction/enforcement strategies are widely judged to have the greatest estimated potential effect, but lack the widespread public acceptance needed to accomplish maximum results. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Porter, C. D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); Brown, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); DeFlorio, J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); McKenzie, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); Tao, W. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States)
2013-03-01
Since the 1970s, numerous transportation strategies have been formulated to change the behavior of drivers or travelers by reducing trips, shifting travel to more efficient modes, or improving the efficiency of existing modes. This report summarizes findings documented in existing literature to identify strategies with the greatest potential impact. The estimated effects of implementing the most significant and aggressive individual driver behavior modification strategies range from less than 1% to a few percent reduction in transportation energy use and GHG emissions. Combined strategies result in reductions of 7% to 15% by 2030. Pricing, ridesharing, eco-driving, and speed limit reduction/enforcement strategies are widely judged to have the greatest estimated potential effect, but lack the widespread public acceptance needed to accomplish maximum results. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.
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Evaluating effectiveness of project start-ups: an exploratory study
Halman, Johannes I.M.; Burger, G.T.N.
In this paper an exploratory study is reported about the effectiveness of project start-up (PSU) practices within a world-scale operating, high technology innovating and manufacturing company. The emphasis is on the focal position of both project owner and project manager. To uncover potential
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wicke, Birka; Sikkema, Richard; Dornburg, Veronika; Junginger, Martin; Faaij, Andre
2008-07-01
This study provides insight into land use changes (LUC) in Indonesia and Malaysia and into the specific role that palm oil production and its expansion have played in the past and may play in the future in both countries. In relation to future land use changes induced by palm oil production expansion also the GHG emissions of this LUC are analysed to indicate the sustainability (from a GHG emission perspective) of the various palm oil expansion projections
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Solid low-level radioactive waste volume projections at Los Alamos National Laboratory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Art, K.; Minton-Hughes, J.; Peper, C.
1995-01-01
In response to regulatory requirements, the current economic environment, and diminishing on-site low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal capacity, LANL needed to develop a system to collect data on future LLW generation that would comply with DOE Order 5820. 2A and be an effective facility planning tool. The LANL Volume Projections Project (VPP) was created to meet these needs. This paper describes objectives, scope, and components of the VPP that will provide information essential to future facility planning and development
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Seiler, C.; Zwiers, F. W.; Hodges, K. I.; Scinocca, J. F.
2018-01-01
Explosive extratropical cyclones (EETCs) are rapidly intensifying low pressure systems that generate severe weather along North America's Atlantic coast. Global climate models (GCMs) tend to simulate too few EETCs, perhaps partly due to their coarse horizontal resolution and poorly resolved moist diabatic processes. This study explores whether dynamical downscaling can reduce EETC frequency biases, and whether this affects future projections of storms along North America's Atlantic coast. A regional climate model (CanRCM4) is forced with the CanESM2 GCM for the periods 1981 to 2000 and 2081 to 2100. EETCs are tracked from relative vorticity using an objective feature tracking algorithm. CanESM2 simulates 38% fewer EETC tracks compared to reanalysis data, which is consistent with a negative Eady growth rate bias (-0.1 day^{-1}). Downscaling CanESM2 with CanRCM4 increases EETC frequency by one third, which reduces the frequency bias to -22%, and increases maximum EETC precipitation by 22%. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is projected to decrease EETC frequency (-15%, -18%) and Eady growth rate (-0.2 day^{-1}, -0.2 day^{-1}), and increase maximum EETC precipitation (46%, 52%) in CanESM2 and CanRCM4, respectively. The limited effect of dynamical downscaling on EETC frequency projections is consistent with the lack of impact on the maximum Eady growth rate. The coarse spatial resolution of GCMs presents an important limitation for simulating extreme ETCs, but Eady growth rate biases are likely just as relevant. Further bias reductions could be achieved by addressing processes that lead to an underestimation of lower tropospheric meridional temperature gradients.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ispas, G.
2004-01-01
The intent of the author of the present paper is to demonstrate, in a practical manner, the role of the past experience and the new approaches of the nuclear projects financing, especially as nuclear generation financing in developing countries involves complex issues that need to be fully understood and dealt with by all the parties involved, namely: high investment costs, generally long construction periods, a high degree of uncertainty with respect to costs and schedule and to public acceptance, particularly because of safety, waste disposal and non-proliferation issues. Moreover, as many associations whose activities consist of ensuring and facilitating at different levels the exchange of knowledge between generations, i.e.: European Nuclear Society (ENS) Young Generation, North American Young Generation in Nuclear (NA-YGN), the goal of the paper is also to outline the importance of the education in nuclear field, i.e. training a young team of specialists to be ready to take over the movement and responsibility in continuing the further development of nuclear program in Romania, mainly with view to the Financing Arrangements for Nuclear Power Projects. The first part of the paper is referring to general financing procedures, while the second part is focusing on a case study related to the: past experience the financing scheme of Cernavoda NPP Unit 1, present or actual experience ongoing financing issues for Cernavoda NPP Unit 2 and potential future shared contribution to the financing of the next Cernavoda NPP units.(author)
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Holmstroem, David; Bisaillon, Mattias; Eriksson, Ola; Hellstroem, Hanna; Nilsson, Karolina
2013-09-01
The overall aim of the project was to study the conditions, opportunities and constraints for the development of the market for biogas from waste in Sweden. Seven areas of importance to the development have been identified in previous projects. The areas are: market and competition, supply and demand for waste, environmental benefits of biogas utilization, technology development, economic value of biogas, political instruments and the handling of digestate. The ambition has been to create a fact and market report for these areas for stake holders such as operators, representatives of authorities and decision makers. The project is a sub-project of 'Perspectives on future waste treatment'. The goal achievement of the project is expected to be good. During the project, there has also been considerable interest in the results, which is already used by a number of operators, both within and outside the project. Thereby, the results have a good spread, even before the project is completed.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gisselle Yang Xie
Full Text Available Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd, a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary, including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific and also separately per region (region-specific. One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas
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Cultivate Africa's Future (CultiAF)
International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
Loan Library
2013-07-16
Jul 16, 2013 ... The percentage of time that each PI dedicates to the project should ... The projects should address real practical development challenges and ... of such a travel grant does not guarantee funding of any future full proposal, but ...
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Cerezo Rodríguez, Carlos
2014-01-01
In this memorandum it will be read all the documentation related to the Final Project Degree of Carlos Cerezo Rodríguez, The Future Days. The objective of this project has been to realise a mini-game (in form of interactive animation in Flash). So that, it will rest prepared for his posterior upload to websites that offer these services. As it will be appreciated in the writing, the process of construction of the project has been made through a phase of planning and preproduction, a phase of ...
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Future United States Domestic Water Demand
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Population projections, estimated per capita consumption rate, and estimated total annual water demand to 2100 for four future projections based off the IPCC SRES...
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Nuclear data. Situation and future projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bioux, P.
1995-01-01
Nuclear power provides the major part of the electricity generation in France, using a system of highly developed Pressurized Water Reactors. Electricite de France, which is responsible for the exploitation of this system, is concerned to ensure the continuity of the expertise and facilities which provide relevant basic scientific information contributing to the efficient exploitation of the system and, in particular, the continuity of the means for providing relevant nuclear data. The nuclear data requirements for the exploitation of the existing nuclear power system have been largely met. However, there remain some needs, in particular in the field of reactor neutronics. Furthermore if one considers the future (for example, the next 10 years) it is not certain that will be possible to meet the needs which are expected to arise. The review, commissioned on behalf of EDF, about the current status and future expectations for work in this field, has shown certain tendencies in the international situation. In particular one notes a general reduction in the effort both in Western Europe and the United States. This negative tendency can perhaps be explained by the almost general reduction world-wide in new nuclear power developments. However, unresolved problems remain, such as the development of methods for reducing the stocks of plutonium and the incineration and storage of a nuclear waste of long duration. In addition improvements in the accuracy of nuclear data could result in non-negligible economic benefits in the exploitation of the existing nuclear facilities. For these very important reasons it is desirable to reverse the present trend. (author). 2 annexes
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Projecting Electricity Demand in 2050
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hostick, Donna J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Belzer, David B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hadley, Stanton W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Markel, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Marnay, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kintner-Meyer, Michael C. W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
2014-07-01
This paper describes the development of end-use electricity projections and load curves that were developed for the Renewable Electricity (RE) Futures Study (hereafter RE Futures), which explored the prospect of higher percentages (30% - 90%) of total electricity generation that could be supplied by renewable sources in the United States. As input to RE Futures, two projections of electricity demand were produced representing reasonable upper and lower bounds of electricity demand out to 2050. The electric sector models used in RE Futures required underlying load profiles, so RE Futures also produced load profile data in two formats: 8760 hourly data for the year 2050 for the GridView model, and in 2-year increments for 17 time slices as input to the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. The process for developing demand projections and load profiles involved three steps: discussion regarding the scenario approach and general assumptions, literature reviews to determine readily available data, and development of the demand curves and load profiles.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
2000-06-01
This report describes the Proceedings of the Symposium on the Joint Research Project between JAERI and Universities -Status and Perspective of the Advanced Radiation Technology Project-, held at Tokyo on January 27, 1999. After a series of conferences which had been held at the second or third year to present the main activities of this unique collaborative project system, the symposium was particularly focused on critical reviewing of the project and on its future. The scientific papers presented were the recent achievements in the themes: 1) nuclear spectroscopy and nuclear materials science with an isotope separator on-line; 2) radiation shielding and nuclear data for use of accelerators; 3) materials analysis methods using ion beams; 4) microstructure in polymer materials irradiated with ions; 5) effects of transmutation products in fusion-reactor materials; 6) physiological study of plants using positron-emitting isotopes. The new theme titled 'Development and application of micro PIXE analysis in the atmospheric pressure' was proposed. Eight panelists discussed the future of the project. The 17 papers are indexed individually. (J.P.N.)
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Willems, Patrick
2015-04-01
Hydrological design parameters, which are currently used in the guidelines for the design of urban drainage systems (Willems et al., 2013) have been revised, taking the Flanders region of Belgium as case study. The revision involved extrapolation of the design rainfall statistics, taking into account the current knowledge on future climate change trends till 2100. Uncertainties in these trend projections have been assessed after statistically analysing and downscaling by a quantile perturbation tool based on a broad ensemble set of climate model simulation results (44 regional + 69 global control-scenario climate model run combinations for different greenhouse gas scenarios). The impact results of the climate scenarios were investigated as changes to rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Thereafter, the climate scenarios and related changes in rainfall statistics were transferred to changes in flood frequencies of sewer systems and overflow frequencies of storage facilities. This has been done based on conceptual urban drainage models. Also the change in storage capacity required to exceed a given overflow return period, has been calculated for a range of return periods and infiltration or throughflow rates. These results were used on the basis of the revision of the hydraulic design rules of urban drainage systems. One of the major challenges while formulating these policy guidelines was the consideration of the huge uncertainties in the future climate change projections and impact assessments; see also the difficulties and pitfalls reported by the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage - Working group on urban rainfall (Willems et al., 2012). We made use of the risk concept, and found it a very useful approach to deal with the high uncertainties. It involves an impact study of the different climate projections, or - for practical reasons - a reduced set of climate scenarios tailored for the specific type of impact considered (urban floods in our
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Ji, Zhenming; Wang, Guiling; Yu, Miao; Pal, Jeremy S.
2018-04-01
Mineral dust aerosols are an essential component of climate over West Africa, however, little work has been performed to investigate their contributions to potential climate change. A set of regional climate model experiments with and without mineral dust processes and land cover changes is performed to evaluate their climatic effects under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for two global climate models. Results suggest surface warming to be in the range of 4-8 °C by the end of the century (2081-2100) over West Africa with respect to the present day (1981-2000). The presence of mineral dusts dampens the warming by 0.1-1 °C in all seasons. Accounting for changes in land cover enhances the warming over the north of Sahel and dampens it to the south in spring and summer; however, the magnitudes are smaller than those resulting from dusts. Overall dust loadings are projected to increase, with the greatest increase occurring over the Sahara and Sahel in summer. Accounting for land cover changes tends to reduce dust loadings over the southern Sahel. Future precipitation is projected to decrease by 5-40 % in the western Sahara and Sahel and increase by 10-150 % over the eastern Sahel and Guinea Coast in JJA. A dipole pattern of future precipitation changes is attributed to dust effects, with decrease in the north by 5-20 % and increase by 5-20 % in the south. Future changes in land cover result in a noisy non-significant response with a tendency for slight wetting in MAM, JJA, and SON and drying in DJF.
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THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING MARGIN LEVELS ON FUTURES OPTIONS PRICE
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Yanling GU; Juan LI
2006-01-01
The paper studies the effects of changing margin levels on the price of futures options and how to organize a market maker's position. Black model (1976) becomes a special case of this paper.The paper prices futures options by duplicating them and adopting the theory of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs for short). Furthermore, the price of a futures option is the unique solution to a nonlinear BSDE.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Iwakawa, Mayumi; Imai, Takashi; Harada, Yoshinobu [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan). Frontier Research Center] [and others
2002-06-01
Human health is determined by a complex interplay of factors, predominantly between genetic susceptibility, environmental conditions and aging. The ultimate aim of the RadGenomics (Radiation Genomics) project is to understand the implications of heterogeneity in responses to ionizing radiation arising from genetic variation between individuals in the human population. The rapid progression of the human genome sequencing and the recent development of new technologies in molecular genetics are providing us with new opportunities to understand the genetic basis of individual differences in susceptibility to natural and/or artificial environmental factors, including radiation exposure. The RadGenomics project will inevitably lead to improved protocols for personalized radiotherapy and reductions in the potential side effects of such treatment. The project will contribute to future research into the molecular mechanisms of radiation sensitivity in humans and will stimulate the development of new high-throughput technologies for a broader application of biological and medical sciences. The staff members are specialists in a variety of fields, including genome science, radiation biology, medical science, molecular biology, and informatics, and have joined the RadGenomics project from various universities, companies, and research institutes. The project started in April 2001. (author)
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iwakawa, Mayumi; Imai, Takashi; Harada, Yoshinobu
2002-01-01
Human health is determined by a complex interplay of factors, predominantly between genetic susceptibility, environmental conditions and aging. The ultimate aim of the RadGenomics (Radiation Genomics) project is to understand the implications of heterogeneity in responses to ionizing radiation arising from genetic variation between individuals in the human population. The rapid progression of the human genome sequencing and the recent development of new technologies in molecular genetics are providing us with new opportunities to understand the genetic basis of individual differences in susceptibility to natural and/or artificial environmental factors, including radiation exposure. The RadGenomics project will inevitably lead to improved protocols for personalized radiotherapy and reductions in the potential side effects of such treatment. The project will contribute to future research into the molecular mechanisms of radiation sensitivity in humans and will stimulate the development of new high-throughput technologies for a broader application of biological and medical sciences. The staff members are specialists in a variety of fields, including genome science, radiation biology, medical science, molecular biology, and informatics, and have joined the RadGenomics project from various universities, companies, and research institutes. The project started in April 2001. (author)
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Omoto, Akira; Moriwaki, Masanao; Sugimoto, Jun; Nakai, Ryodai
2007-01-01
INPRO is an international forum to consider jointly the international and national actions required to achieve desired innovations in nuclear reactors and fuel cycles so as to ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to a sustainable development of the human, and IAEA becomes the secretariat for INPRO. The number of the members counts 28 by recent participation of Japan and U.S.A. now, and it is a unique forum to bring together both technology users and technology holders, that includes 5 countries which do not still have nuclear power generation. Until now it was phase I, and focused its activities to make clear the desired characteristics of nuclear energy system toward the future, and to develop methodology to evaluate various nuclear energy systems, but it shifted to phase II from July, 2006, and it planned three areas of activities such as improvement of evaluation methodology, institutional/infrastructure oriented activities and a collaborative project of technology development. Current status and future direction of INPRO was presented to encourage Japan in significant contributions of these three areas. (T. Tanaka)
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The Results of Development of the Project ZOOINT and its Future Perspectives
Smirnov, I. S.; Lobanov, A. L.; Alimov, A. F.; Medvedev, S. G.; Golikov, A. A.
future of most advanced technologies of development of the DB (for example, usage of the XML platform) and, eventually, building of the modern information systems. The work on the project is carried out at support of the RFBR grant N 02-07-90217; programs "The Information system on a biodiversity of Russia" and Project N 15 "Antarctic Regions".
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Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland
Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray
2016-04-01
The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season
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Ceramics and its Dimensions: Shaping the Future
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
2016-01-01
Ceramics and its Dimensions is a project which examines European ceramics from the perspectives of the past as well as of the future, with its new possibilities. The project has partner institutions in eleven different countries in Europe and it is co-funded through the Creative Europe program...... of EU and coordinated by the Porzellanikon Porcelain museum, Selb, Germany. Ceramics and its Dimensions: Shaping the Future (Module 6) is one of the ten modules (sub-projects) of the project and led by Aalto University, School of Art, Design and Architecture, Department of Design, Helsinki, Finland....... The sub-project consists of a workshop, a touring exhibition and a publication. It has been co-funded by the Finnish Ministry of Education and Culture....
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1994-02-01
The Department of Energy (DOE) established the Office of Technology Development (EM-50) (OTD) as an element of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) in November, 1989. OTD has begun to search out, develop, test and demonstrate technologies that can now or in the future be applied to the enormous remediation problem now facing the DOE and the United States public in general. Technology demonstration projects have been designed to attack a separate problem as defined by DOE. The Heavy Metals Contaminated Soil Project was conceived to test and demonstrate off-the-shelf technologies (dominantly from the mining industry) that can be brought to bear on the problem of radionuclide and heavy metal contamination in soils and sediments. The Resource Recovery Project is tasked with identifying, developing, testing, and evaluating new and innovative technologies for the remediation of metal contaminated surface and groundwater. An innovative twist on this project is the stated goal of recovering the metals, formerly disposed of as a waste, for reuse and resale, thereby transforming them into a usable resource. Finally, the Dynamic Underground Stripping Project was developed to demonstrate and remediate underground spills of hydrocarbons from formations that are (1) too deep for excavation, and/or (2) require in-situ remediation efforts of long duration. This project has already been shown effective in reducing the time for remediation by conventional methods from an estimated 200 years at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to less than one year. The savings in time and dollars from this technology alone can be immeasurable
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The algorithm for duration acceleration of repetitive projects considering the learning effect
Chen, Hongtao; Wang, Keke; Du, Yang; Wang, Liwan
2018-03-01
Repetitive project optimization problem is common in project scheduling. Repetitive Scheduling Method (RSM) has many irreplaceable advantages in the field of repetitive projects. As the same or similar work is repeated, the proficiency of workers will be correspondingly low to high, and workers will gain experience and improve the efficiency of operations. This is learning effect. Learning effect is one of the important factors affecting the optimization results in repetitive project scheduling. This paper analyzes the influence of the learning effect on the controlling path in RSM from two aspects: one is that the learning effect changes the controlling path, the other is that the learning effect doesn't change the controlling path. This paper proposes corresponding methods to accelerate duration for different types of critical activities and proposes the algorithm for duration acceleration based on the learning effect in RSM. And the paper chooses graphical method to identity activities' types and considers the impacts of the learning effect on duration. The method meets the requirement of duration while ensuring the lowest acceleration cost. A concrete bridge construction project is given to verify the effectiveness of the method. The results of this study will help project managers understand the impacts of the learning effect on repetitive projects, and use the learning effect to optimize project scheduling.
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Future climate. Engineering solutions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ferdinand, J.F.; Hagedorn-Rasmussen, P.; Fonnesbech, B.
2009-09-15
Future Climate Engineering Solutions - Joint Report is the common output and a documentation of more than 1 year's effort by 13 engineering associations - in 12 countries - to demonstrate how technologies can combat climate change. The report consists of three parts: Summaries of 10 national climate plans and technology prospects, 5 Key Common Findings, and a Climate Call from Engineers to create a new global climate treaty. The basic assumption of the project is recognition that GHG emissions, and their concentration in the atmosphere, must be reduced to a sustainable level. The project definition of a sustainable level is equivalent to the best-case stabilisation scenario which was presented in the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whereby the global mean temperature is most likely to stabilise at 2.0-2.4 deg. C. The Future Climate website www.futureclimate.info holds more information about the project, including possibility to download project material, including the full national climate plans.
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The Better Beginnings, Better Futures Project: Findings from Grade 3 to Grade 9
Peters, Ray DeV.; Bradshaw, Alison J.; Petrunka, Kelly; Nelson, Geoffrey; Herry, Yves; Craig, Wendy M.; Arnold, Robert; Parker, Kevin C. H.; Khan, Shahriar R.; Hoch, Jeffrey S.; Pancer, S. Mark; Loomis, Colleen; Belanger, Jean-Marc; Evers, Susan; Maltais, Claire; Thompson, Katherine; Rossiter, Melissa D.
2010-01-01
Although comprehensive and ecological approaches to early childhood prevention are commonly advocated, there are few examples of long-term follow-up of such programs. In this monograph, we investigate the medium- and long-term effects of an ecological, community-based prevention project for primary school children and families living in three…
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Effects of Procurement Related Factors on Construction Project ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Several Literatures in construction management support the view that procurements have impacts on project performance. Aim of this study is to investigate the effects of procurement related factors of procurement selection criteria, tendering methods and variation orders on project performance. Purpose of the study is to ...
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Site remediation and the future of radiation protection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Olsen, R.L.
1999-01-01
An ongoing project on The Future of Radiation Protection is exploring the most important radiation-related challenges that may emerge between now and 2025. Project participants have already identified the restoration of sites contaminated by radioactive residues as one of the central challenges of the generation ahead. Scenarios developed in the project explore a wide range of plausible radiation protection futures, from highly desirable futures to futures dominated by problems and crises. The most negative scenario involves many developments that produce radioactive residues, from accidents that release radionuclides and scandals over the improper handling and disposal of radioactive wastes to accelerating proliferation of nuclear weapons and incidents of radiological terrorism. A majority of expert participants in focus groups conducted as part of the project view this negative scenario as the most probable future. Other scenarios explore a 'greater use' future (e.g., a second generation of nuclear power) and a future where advancing technology leads away from the use of radioactive materials. These two scenarios elicit strong enthusiasm from different sets of participants, but neither of them is viewed as likely. A final 'Whole System Protection' scenario is viewed favorably by the widest range of participants and is viewed as reasonably likely. This scenario is being developed further in the current stage of the project. It is being developed to highlight common ground between participants in terms of agreement on 'principles for guiding action.' Principles such as total accounting, pollution prevention, risk harmonization, public right to know, stewardship, and sustainability may form a framework for guiding action that can transcend traditional debates and revitalize the field of radiation protection. (author)
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Etkind, S N; Bone, A E; Gomes, B; Lovell, N; Evans, C J; Higginson, I J; Murtagh, F E M
2017-05-18
Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries. We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure. By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need. If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with
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The Effectiveness of Project Based Learning in Trigonometry
Gerhana, M. T. C.; Mardiyana, M.; Pramudya, I.
2017-09-01
This research aimed to explore the effectiveness of Project-Based Learning (PjBL) with scientific approach viewed from interpersonal intelligence toward students’ achievement learning in mathematics. This research employed quasi experimental research. The subjects of this research were grade X MIPA students in Sleman Yogyakarta. The result of the research showed that project-based learning model is more effective to generate students’ mathematics learning achievement that classical model with scientific approach. This is because in PjBL model students are more able to think actively and creatively. Students are faced with a pleasant atmosphere to solve a problem in everyday life. The use of project-based learning model is expected to be the choice of teachers to improve mathematics education.
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The Dust Management Project: Final Report
Hyatt, Mark J.; Straka, Sharon
2011-01-01
A return to the Moon to extend human presence, pursue scientific activities, use the Moon to prepare for future human missions to Mars, and expand Earth s economic sphere, will require investment in developing new technologies and capabilities to achieve affordable and sustainable human exploration. From the operational experience gained and lessons learned during the Apollo missions, conducting longterm operations in the lunar environment will be a particular challenge, given the difficulties presented by the unique physical properties and other characteristics of lunar regolith, including dust. The Apollo missions and other lunar explorations have identified significant lunar dust-related problems that will challenge future mission success. Comprised of regolith particles ranging in size from tens of nanometers to microns, lunar dust is a manifestation of the complex interaction of the lunar soil with multiple mechanical, electrical, and gravitational effects. The environmental and anthropogenic factors effecting the perturbation, transport, and deposition of lunar dust must be studied in order to mitigate it s potentially harmful effects on exploration systems and human explorers. The Dust Management Project (DMP) is tasked with the evaluation of lunar dust effects, assessment of the resulting risks, and development of mitigation and management strategies and technologies related to Exploration Systems architectures. To this end, the DMP supports the overall goal of the Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) of addressing the relevant high priority technology needs of multiple elements within the Constellation Program (CxP) and sister ETDP projects. Project scope, approach, accomplishments, summary of deliverables, and lessons learned are presented.
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Alternatives for Future Waste Management in Denmark
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller Andersen, Frits; Cimpan, Ciprian; Dall, Ole
The TOPWASTE project has addressed the challenges of planning robust solutions for future waste management. The purpose was to identify economic and environmentally optimal solutions ‐ taking into account different scenarios for the development of the surrounding systems, such as the energy syste......, environmental and resource efficiency of waste management solutions. The following chapters addresses these issues by answering some of the main research questions of the project.......The TOPWASTE project has addressed the challenges of planning robust solutions for future waste management. The purpose was to identify economic and environmentally optimal solutions ‐ taking into account different scenarios for the development of the surrounding systems, such as the energy system....... During the project, four decision support tools were developed:1. Frida ‐ The EPA's tool for forecasting future waste generation 2. OptiWaste ‐ a new tool for economic optimisation of investments and operation of the combined waste and energy system3. KISS ‐ a new lifecycle based model with focus...
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David N. Bengston; Robert L. Olson; Leif A. DeVaney
2012-01-01
Past efforts to examine the future of wildland fire management have relied heavily on expertise from within the wildfire community. But changes in seemingly unrelated external factors - outside of the world of wildfire and fire management - can have unexpected and profound effects. This paper describes an ongoing sh1dy of the...
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Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.
2013-12-01
future climate mitigation strategies. We find substantial effects on key integrated assessment projections including the magnitude of emissions to mitigate, the economic value of ecosystem carbon storage, future land-use patterns, food prices and energy technology.
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Biologically inspired technologies in NASA's morphing project
McGowan, Anna-Maria R.; Cox, David E.; Lazos, Barry S.; Waszak, Martin R.; Raney, David L.; Siochi, Emilie J.; Pao, S. Paul
2003-07-01
For centuries, biology has provided fertile ground for hypothesis, discovery, and inspiration. Time-tested methods used in nature are being used as a basis for several research studies conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center as a part of Morphing Project, which develops and assesses breakthrough vehicle technologies. These studies range from low drag airfoil design guided by marine and avian morphologies to soaring techniques inspired by birds and the study of small flexible wing vehicles. Biology often suggests unconventional yet effective approaches such as non-planar wings, dynamic soaring, exploiting aeroelastic effects, collaborative control, flapping, and fibrous active materials. These approaches and other novel technologies for future flight vehicles are being studied in NASA's Morphing Project. This paper will discuss recent findings in the aeronautics-based, biologically-inspired research in the project.
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Critical success factors in infrastructure projects
Zakaria, Siti Fairus; Zin, Rosli Mohamad; Mohamad, Ismail; Balubaid, Saeed; Mydin, Shaik Hussein; Mohd Rahim, E. M. Roodienyanto
2017-11-01
Construction of infrastructure project is different from buildings. The main difference is term of project site where infrastructure project need to command a long stretch while building mostly confine to a limited area. As such factors that are critical to infrastructure project may not be that significant to building project and vice versa. Flood mitigation can be classified under infrastructure projects under which their developments are planned by the government with the specific objective to reduce or avoid the negative effects of flood to the environment and livelihood. One of the indicators in project success is delay. The impact of project delay in construction industry is significant that it decelerates the projects implementation, specifically the government projects. This study attempted to identify and compare the success factors between infrastructure and building projects, as such comparison rarely found in the current literature. A model of flood mitigation projects' success factors was developed by merging the experts' views and reports from the existing literature. The experts' views were obtained from the responses to open-ended questions on the required fundamentals to achieve successful completion of flood mitigation projects. An affinity analysis was applied to these responses to develop the model. The developed model was then compared to the established success factors found in building project, extracted from the previous studies to identify the similarities and differences between the two models. This study would assist the government and construction players to become more effective in constructing successful flood mitigation projects for the future practice in a flood-prone country like Malaysia.
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Andres Rodriguez, Daniel; Garofolo, Lucas; Lazaro Siqueira Junior, Jose
2013-04-01
Uncertainties in Climate Change projections are affected by irreducible uncertainties due to knowledge's limitations, chaotic nature of climate system and human decision-making process. Such uncertainties affect the impact studies, complicating the decision-making process aimed at mitigation and adaptation. However, these uncertainties allow the possibility to develop exploratory analyses on system's vulnerability to different sceneries. Through these kinds of analyses it is possible to identify critical issues, which must be deeper studied. For this study we used several future's projections from General Circulation Models to feed a Hydrological Model, applied to the Amazonian sub-basin of Ji-Paraná. Hydrological Model integrations are performed for present historical time (1970-1990) and for future period (2010-2100). Extreme values analyses are performed to each simulated time series and results are compared with extremes events in present time. A simple approach to identify potential vulnerabilities consists of evaluating the hydrologic system response to climate variability and extreme events observed in the past, comparing them with the conditions projected for the future. Thus it is possible to identify critical issues that need attention and more detailed studies. For the goal of this work, we used socio-economic data from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, the Operator of the National Electric System, the Brazilian National Water Agency and scientific and press published information. This information is used to characterize impacts associated to extremes hydrological events in the basin during the present historical time and to evaluate potential impacts in the future face to the different hydrological projections. Results show inter-model variability results in a broad dispersion on projected extreme's values. The impact of such dispersion is differentiated for different aspects of socio-economic and natural systems and must be carefully
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Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Bateman, Brooke L.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Radeloff, Volker C.
2016-01-01
Climate change is a major challenge for managers of protected areas world-wide, and managers need information about future climate conditions within protected areas. Prior studies of climate change effects in protected areas have largely focused on average climatic conditions. However, extreme weather may have stronger effects on wildlife populations and habitats than changes in averages. Our goal was to quantify future changes in the frequency of extreme heat, drought, and false springs, during the avian breeding season, in 415 National Wildlife Refuges in the conterminous United States. We analyzed spatially detailed data on extreme weather frequencies during the historical period (1950–2005) and under different scenarios of future climate change by mid- and late-21st century. We found that all wildlife refuges will likely experience substantial changes in the frequencies of extreme weather, but the types of projected changes differed among refuges. Extreme heat is projected to increase dramatically in all wildlife refuges, whereas changes in droughts and false springs are projected to increase or decrease on a regional basis. Half of all wildlife refuges are projected to see increases in frequency (> 20% higher than the current rate) in at least two types of weather extremes by mid-century. Wildlife refuges in the Southwest and Pacific Southwest are projected to exhibit the fastest rates of change, and may deserve extra attention. Climate change adaptation strategies in protected areas, such as the U.S. wildlife refuges, may need to seriously consider future changes in extreme weather, including the considerable spatial variation of these changes.
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State of the Art of helium heat exchanger development for future HTR-projects - HTR2008-58146
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Esch, M.; Juergens, B.; Hurtado, A.; Knoche, D.; Tietsch, W.
2008-01-01
In Germany two HTR nuclear power plants had been built and operated, the AVR-15 and the THTR-300. Also various projects for different purposes in a large power range had been developed, The AVR-15, an experimental reactor with a power output of 15 MWel was operated for more than 20 years with excellent results. The THTR-300 was designed as a prototype demonstration plant with 300 MWel and should be the technological basis for the entire future reactor line. The THTR-300 was prematurely shut down and decommissioned because of political reasons. But because of the accompanying comprehensive R and D program and the operation time of about 5 years, the technology was proved and essential operational results were gained. The AVR steam generator was installed above the reactor core. The six THTR heat exchangers were arranged circularly around the reactor core, Both heat exchanger systems have been operated successfully and furthermore acted as a residual heat removal system. The technology knowledge and experience gained on these existing HTR plants is still available at Westinghouse Electric Germany GmbH since Westinghouse is one of the legal successors of the former German HTR companies. As a follow-up project of THTR, the HTR-500 was developed and designed up to the manufacturing stage. For this plant additionally to the 8 steam generators, two residual heat removal heat exchangers were foreseen. These were to be installed in a ring around the reactor core. All these HTRs were designed for the generation of electricity using a steam cycle. Extensive research work has also been done for advanced applications of HTR technology e.g. using a direct cycle within the HHT project or generating process heat within the framework of the PNP project, Because of the critical attitude of the German government to the nuclear power in the past 20 years in Germany there was only a very limited interest in the further development of the HTR technology. As a consequence of the German
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Futures hedging effectiveness under the segmentation of bear/bull energy markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chang, Chiao-Yi; Lai, Jing-Yi; Chuang, I-Yuan
2010-01-01
This article undertakes eight hedging models (Regression, MD-GARCH, BEKK-GARCH, CCC-GARCH, ECM-MD, ECM-BEKK, ECM-CCC, and state space models) to investigate hedging effectiveness of different price scenarios in energy futures markets. Different models have systematically evidenced that hedging effectiveness is higher in an increasing pattern (termed 'bull markets') than in a decreasing pattern (termed 'bear markets') for crude oil and gasoline futures. That is, findings show asymmetric hedging performance between upward and downward price trends consistently from the most popular hedging models in literature. Out-of-sample examination also suggests that the ranking of hedging effectiveness of different hedging models is not parallel in different price patterns across futures contracts, implying that investors should adjust their hedging strategies accordingly. (author)
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Safety criteria for the future LMFBR's in France and main safety issues for the rapide 1500 project
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Justin, F.; Natta, M.; Orzoni, G.
1985-04-01
The main safety criteria for future LMFBR in France and the related issues for the RAPIDE 1500 project are presented and discussed. The evolutions with respect to SUPERPHENIX options and requirements are emphasized, in particular for the concerns of the prevention of core melt accidents, fuel damage limits and related required performances of the protection system, since one main option is not to consider whole core melt accidents in the containment design. One shall also point out the advantages of some mitigating features which were nevertheless added in the containment design, although without any explicit consideration for core melt accidents
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Baena, Cristina P; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Schio, Nicolle Amboni; Sabbag, Ary Elias; Guarita-Souza, Luiz Cesar; Olandoski, Marcia; Franco, Oscar H; Faria-Neto, José Rocha
2013-09-01
To quantify the trend of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths in Brazil during the last decade (2000-2010) for various population characteristics and to forecast the upcoming mortality trends across regions in Brazil until the year 2015. Nationwide comparative observational study. The population studied encompassed all adult residents (≥ 20 years) living in five Brazilian regions between 2000 and 2010. Demographic, economic and mortality data were obtained from Brazilian National Mortality Data System and National Applied Economics Research Institute. Subnotified deaths were redistributed proportionally to IHD deaths. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 inhabitants, by sex and region, were calculated employing a standard Brazilian population and constructing multivariate regression models to quantify and to project temporal trends. Absolute numbers of death due to IHD and region-specific death rates in Brazil by age and sex. During the study period, 627 786 men and 452 690 women died due to IHD in Brazil. ASMR trends across all regions for men and women converged, driven by a declining trend in the South and Southeast and an opposite incline in the North and Northeast (p < 0.05). Future projections demonstrated potential widening of the observed North-South gap in coming years. The IHD death trend in Brazil has changed from a decline to a stagnant state. However, a significant discrepancy in mortality trends exists between the northern and southern regions, which is likely to widen further. Reappraisal of the public health policies tailored to populations with diverse socioeconomic structures is urgently required.
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Demographic controls of future global fire risk
Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.
2016-08-01
Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.
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Epidemiological and demographic HIV/AIDS projections: South Africa
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Epidemiological and demographic HIV/AIDS projections: South Africa. ... African Journal of AIDS Research ... Projections and the Spectrum model program developed by the Futures Group were used to model the South African HIV epidemic, project future trends in HIV/AIDS and estimate the demographic impact of AIDS.
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Hutyra, L.; Yang, Y.; Kim, J.; Cheng, C.; O'Brien, P.; Rouhani, S.; Douglas, E. M.; Nicolson, C.; Ryan, R.; Schaaf, C.; Warren, P.; Wollheim, W. M.
2013-12-01
New England watersheds have been impacted by human development and environmental stressors that are similar to those projected to impact large portions of the United States and the world. These impacts are likely to continue as some parts of the region are projected to lose over 60% of private forestland to development by 2030. Such dramatic changes have important consequences for water quality and quantity. Because of the complex and varied interactions between human and natural systems, simply understanding the processes affecting current and historical conditions in urbanizing watersheds is inadequate to model the future. Understanding future hydrologic conditions is made more difficult because of the uncertainties inherent in projecting future climate conditions. One approach to handling this complexity is to use scenarios to explore a range of potential futures following contrasting trajectories of change. Here we describe how four scenarios of land use change were developed using a stakeholder driven process. We then began using the scenarios in hydrological models to estimate future changes in water quality and quantity. The study area includes three watersheds (the Charles, Neponset and Ipswich) that have undergone varying degrees of urbanization in the greater Boston area of Massachusetts in the northeastern United States. The Charles and Neponset River watersheds are densely populated and include the city of Boston itself. Municipal water supplies in these two watersheds are mostly from the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) sources in western Massachusetts. The Ipswich River watershed is highly suburban, and communities are largely dependent on local water supplies. If the historical urbanization trends continue, the impervious area in the Charles River watershed is projected to increase by 13%, 16% in Neponset River watershed, and 24% in Ipswich River watershed by 2030. For the Charles River watershed, analyses identified hot spots for
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Project Selection for NASA's R&D Programs
Jones, Harry
2005-01-01
The purpose of NASA s Research and Development (R&D) programs is to provide advanced human support technologies for the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD). The new technologies must be sufficiently attractive and proven to be selectable for future missions. This requires identifying promising candidate technologies and advancing them in technology readiness until they are likely options for flight. The R&D programs must select an array of technology development projects, manage them, and either terminate or continue them, so as to maximize the delivered number of potentially usable advanced human support technologies. This paper proposes an effective project selection methodology to help manage NASA R&D project portfolios.
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WHO's International EMF Project (invited paper)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Repacholi, M.H.
1999-01-01
The International Electromagnetic Fields (EMF) Project assesses health and environmental effects of exposure to static and time varying electric and magnetic fields in the frequency range 0-300 GHz. The Project facilitates a coordinated international response to the concerns about possible health effects of exposure to EMF, assesses the scientific literature, identifies gaps in knowledge needing further research to improve health risk assessments and encourages focused research to fill gaps in knowledge. When the results of this research are published, they will be incorporated into WHO's Environmental Health Criteria monographs where formal health risk assessments are made on exposure to EMF. These monographs provide a database that facilitates the development of internationally acceptable standards for EMF exposure. This paper reviews the International EMF Project activities related to WHO's EMF research requirements and focuses on specific questions raised during the scientific reviews that need to be considered in future epidemiological studies. (author)
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Is DevOps another Project Management Methodology?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Logica BANICA
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper, the authors aim to present the concept of DevOps (Development & Operations, considering its degree of novelty in the area of project management. Firstly, the authors will bring theoretical arguments to support the idea that DevOps is an early-stage methodology, built on the Agile principles, but coming with its own contributions in project management for software development and implementation. Therefore, we believe that after a short time, DevOps will replace its predecessors. Secondly, we experienced this methodology by developing a small project in academic environment by three teams of master students, using VersionOne software. The Conclusions will emphasize the relevance and the future expected effects of DevOps methodology in the project management domain.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bisaillon, Mattias; Detterfelt, Lia; Edner, Stig; Maartenssson, Paal
2013-09-01
The use of fossil fuels in Swedish district heating systems has fallen sharply. With continued pressure from society to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, it is likely that the use of these fuels will decrease further. The major remaining source of emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) from district heating systems 2020 is waste incineration with energy recovery in the form of electricity and heat. The aim of this project was, from two perspectives (stack perspective and system perspective), to analyze future emissions of fossil CO{sub 2} from Swedish waste incineration in the Swedish district heating systems. By studying both perspectives at the same time, the results answer whether changes in emissions in one perspective give similar or opposite effects seen from the other perspective. The purpose was also to make cost estimates for emission reduction measures affecting waste, energy and material production system. These costs were related to the price of allowances in the EU ETS and to the Swedish carbon tax. The project was performed in 2012 as a part of the research project 'Perspectives on sustainable waste treatment'.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shiohara, Y. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Shinonome 1-10-13, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-0062 (Japan)], E-mail: shiohara@istec.or.jp; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Shinonome 1-10-13, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-0062 (Japan); Yamada, Y. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Nagoya Coated Conductor Center, 2-4-1, Mutsuno, Atsuta-ku, Nagoya 456-8587 (Japan)
2008-09-15
Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of I{sub c} and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose I{sub c} value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO{sub 2}. About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO{sub 2} doping showed a high I{sub c} value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high I{sub c} value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high I{sub c} values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The I{sub c} x L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kupitz, J.; Depisch, F.; Kuznetsov, V.
2004-01-01
Upon resolutions of the IAEA General Conference in 2000, the IAEA initiated International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO). The objective of INPRO, which comprises two phases, is to support sustainable deployment and use of nuclear technology to meet the global energy needs in the next 50 years and beyond. During Phase I, work is subdivided into two sub phases. Phase 1A focused on determining user requirements in the areas of economics, environment, safety, proliferation resistance, and recommendations in the area of so-called crosscutting issues, which are legal, institutional, and infrastructure issues accompanying the deployment of nuclear power, and is targeted at developing a methodology and guidelines for the assessment of various nuclear reactor and fuel cycle concepts and approaches. Phase 1A was finalised in June 2003 with its results now available as IAEA TECDOC-1362. Phase 1B has started in July 2003. During this phase interested Member States are performing case studies to validate the INPRO methodology and, later on, to assess selected innovative nuclear energy systems using the updated INPRO methodology. In accordance with the INPRO Terms of Reference, after successful completion of Phase I, Phase II may be initiated to examine the feasibility of commencing international projects on innovative nuclear energy systems. The paper contains a description of the current and future activities of INPRO and summarizes the outcome of the project.(author)
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Effective Teaching Methods--Project-based Learning in Physics
Holubova, Renata
2008-01-01
The paper presents results of the research of new effective teaching methods in physics and science. It is found out that it is necessary to educate pre-service teachers in approaches stressing the importance of the own activity of students, in competences how to create an interdisciplinary project. Project-based physics teaching and learning…
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Research projects of STUK 2003-2005
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Salomaa, S.
2004-01-01
The primary goal of STUK, Finnish Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, is to protect man, society, environment and future generations from the harmful effects of radiation. The research conducted by STUK yields new information related to the use, occurrence and effects of radiation. STUK research projects 2003 - 2005 summarizes STUK's own research activities on radiation protection. In addition to these, STUK also supervises and funds research projects related to safety of nuclear energy, and nuclear waste and materials that are carried out in other research institutes. Information on the research projects and related publications is also available on STUK's WWW pages at www.stuk.fi. STUK's research focuses on radiation protection and health effects of radiation. During 2003 - 2005 the main emphasis will be on research supporting the Finnish national environmental health action plan, and projects concerning the health risks of radiation, nuclear emergency preparedness and protection of biota. EU directives on radiation protection and medical radiation exposure also influence the course taken by the research carried out at STUK. New research priorities also include studies on non-ionising radiation, especially the effects of mobile phone frequency radiation. STUK's research networks involve well over 100 national and international partners. During 2003 - 2005 STUK is actively participating in the 6th framework research programmes of EC
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Futures hedging effectiveness under the segmentation of bear/bull energy markets
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chang, Chiao-Yi [Department of Money and Banking, National Kaohsiung First University of Science and Technology, No. 2, Jhuoyue Rd., Nanzih, Kaohsiung City, 811 (China); Lai, Jing-Yi; Chuang, I-Yuan [Department of Finance, National Chung-Cheng University, No. 168, University Rd., Ming-Hsiung, Chia-Yi 62102. (China)
2010-03-15
This article undertakes eight hedging models (Regression, MD-GARCH, BEKK-GARCH, CCC-GARCH, ECM-MD, ECM-BEKK, ECM-CCC, and state space models) to investigate hedging effectiveness of different price scenarios in energy futures markets. Different models have systematically evidenced that hedging effectiveness is higher in an increasing pattern (termed 'bull markets') than in a decreasing pattern (termed 'bear markets') for crude oil and gasoline futures. That is, findings show asymmetric hedging performance between upward and downward price trends consistently from the most popular hedging models in literature. Out-of-sample examination also suggests that the ranking of hedging effectiveness of different hedging models is not parallel in different price patterns across futures contracts, implying that investors should adjust their hedging strategies accordingly. (author)
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Vision of future energy networks - Final report; Vision of future energy networks - Schlussbericht
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Froehlich, K.; Andersson, G.
2008-07-01
In the framework of the project 'Vision of Future Networks', models and methods have been developed that enable a greenfield approach for energy systems with multiple energy carriers. Applying a greenfield approach means that no existing infrastructure is taken into account when designing the energy system, i.e. the system is virtually put up on a green field. The developed models refer to the impacts of energy storage on power systems with stochastic generation, to the integrated modelling and optimization of multi-carrier energy systems, to reliability considerations of future energy systems as well as to possibilities of combined transmission of multiple energy carriers. Key concepts, which have been developed in the framework of this project, are the Energy Hub (for the conversion and storage of energy) and the Energy Interconnector (for energy transmission). By means of these concepts, it is possible to design structures for future energy systems being able to cope with the growing requirements regarding energy supply. (author)
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Gusack, Nancy, Ed.; And Others
1995-01-01
Contains 11 articles that describe different university access systems designed and built to provide access to journals via The University Licensing Program (TULIP), a science journal access project, involving Elsevier Science Publishing and major universities. The project produced insights to help with future electronic information delivery…
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Sumari, Putra; Idris, Zamzuri; Abdullah, Jafri Malin
2017-03-01
The Academy of Sciences Malaysia and the Malaysian Industry-Government group for High Technology has been working hard to project the future of big data and neurotechnology usage up to the year 2050. On the 19 September 2016, the International Brain Initiative was announced by US Under Secretary of State Thomas Shannon at a meeting that accompanied the United Nations' General Assembly in New York City. This initiative was seen as an important effort but deemed costly for developing countries. At a concurrent meeting hosted by the US National Science Foundation at Rockefeller University, numerous countries discussed this massive project, which would require genuine collaboration between investigators in the realms of neuroethics. Malaysia's readiness to embark on using big data in the field of brain, mind and neurosciences is to prepare for the 4th Industrial Revolution which is an important investment for the country's future. The development of new strategies has also been encouraged by the involvement of the Society of Brain Mapping and Therapeutics, USA and the International Neuroinformatics Coordinating Facility.
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Success factors for international HTA projects: evaluating EUnetHTA Joint Action as an exemplar.
Guegan, Eleanor Woodford; Cook, Andrew
2014-11-01
Evaluation is essential for the management of international projects or networks in health technology assessment (HTA). It extends beyond the normal process of project management by incorporating qualitative dimensions and provides information about a project's effectiveness and achievements. This article aimed to identify the factors that are important for the success of international HTA projects. The European network for Health Technology Assessment Joint Action (EUnetHTA JA) is presented as an exemplar. METHODS for the evaluation of international HTA projects include interviews, focus groups, questionnaires, observations and documentary review, and the key points of these approaches have been summarized. The impact and effectiveness of the EUnetHTA JA was evaluated by questionnaires of project participants and external stakeholders, and by documentary review. The response rate for the three annual questionnaires sent to project participants ranged from 86 percent to 88 percent and for external stakeholders ranged from 65 percent to 88 percent. Key factors for project success included production of deliverables according to the workplan, achievement of objectives, added value generated, effective communication, involvement of external stakeholders, workstream management and progress from the preceding EUnetHTA 2006-2008 project. The experience of this project can inform the evaluation of future international HTA collaborations, such as the EUnetHTA 2nd Joint Action and HTAsiaLink. A high response rate was achieved to the self-completion questionnaires and the strategy followed is recommended for evaluation of international HTA projects. Future assessments of international HTA projects should strive to measure outcomes and impact, not just outputs and process.
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Assessment of Project Website Sustainability: Case of the Arctic EIA Project
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sonja H Bickford
2016-07-01
Full Text Available In many cases, temporary websites may be simple, accessible solutions for knowledge management and dissemination of information. However, such sites may become outdated as the funding ends, but yet in many cases, still publicly available through the Internet. The issue of website sustainability is a relevant topic for all organizations that have websites. Website lifecycle, knowledge management, and website sustainability issues are discussed through a theoretical-based literature review. These issues are then summarized and used as lessons learned for the case study approach of this paper. The aim is to identify a solution to address a website’s life and longevity, post project. A practical case study assessment of the issue of project website sustainability is needed to address the website’s longevity—post project—as creation is often made through temporary endeavors. Recommendations for future project websites are made as the outcomes and results of this study and are expressed in the form of suggested practices for project website sustainability in future projects.
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Base-age invariance and inventory projections
C. J. Cieszewski; R. L. Bailey; B. E. Borders; G. H. Brister; B. D. Shiver
2000-01-01
One of the most important functions of forest inventory is to facilitate management decisions towards forest sustainability based on inventory projections into the future. Therefore, most forest inventories are used for predicting future states of the forests, in modern forestry the most common methods used in inventory projections are based on implicit functions...
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Timbal, Bertrand
2010-01-01
The Eastern SeaBoard (ESB) of Australia has long been recognised as a separate climate entity. Using the latest gridded observations from the Bureau of Meteorology, a definition of the spatial extent of the ESB is proposed. It appears that, while this area has recorded below average rainfall over the last 12 years, the ongoing deficiency is not record breaking in historic terms. This contrasts with record breaking droughts across large parts of inland, eastern Australia. The lesser severity of ongoing rainfall deficiencies in the ESB, compared to the rest of the region, is linked to the different impact of observed changes in regional surface pressure and, in particular, changes in the position of the sub-tropical ridge. It is also observed that while tropical modes of variability in the Pacific and Indian oceans are known to influence the climate of eastern Australia, that influence appears very weak and not statistically significant across the ESB. Finally, some issues relevant to future rainfall projections for the ESB are discussed. It is argued that providing reliable climate projections across this climatic region is a difficult challenge.
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Beck, F.; Bárdossy, A.
2013-07-01
Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.
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Upstream effects of dams on alluvial channels: state-of-the-art and future challenges
Liro, Maciej
2017-04-01
More than 50,000 large dams (with the height above 15 m) operate all over the world and, thus, they significantly disturb water and sediment transport in river systems. These disturbances are recognized as one of the most important factors shaping river morphology in the Anthropocene. Downstream effects of dams have been well documented in numerous case studies and supported by predictions from existing models. In contrast, little is known on the upstream effects of dams on alluvial channels. This review highlights the lack of studies on sedimentological, hydromorphological and biogeomorphological adjustments of alluvial rivers in the base-level raised zones of backwater upstream of dam reservoirs where water level fluctuations occur. Up to date, it has been documented that backwater effects may facilitate fine and coarse sediment deposition, increase groundwater level, provide higher and more frequent channel and floodplain inundation and lead to significant morphological changes. But there have been no studies quantifying short- and long-term consequences of these disturbances for the hydromorphological and biogeomorphological feedbacks that control development of alluvial channels. Some recent studies carried out on gravel-bed and fine-grained bed rivers show that the above mentioned disturbances facilitate vegetation expansion on exposed channel sediments and floodplain influencing river morphology, which suggests that backwater area of alluvial rivers may be treated as the hotspot of bio-geomorphological changes in a fluvial system. To set the stage for future research on upstream effects of dams, this work presents the existing state-of-art and proposes some hypotheses which may be tested in future studies. This study was carried out within the scope of the Research Project 2015/19/N/ST10/01526 financed by the National Science Centre of Poland
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The human genome project and the future of medical practice ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Contrary to the scepticism that characterised the planning stages of the human genome project, the technology and sequence data resulting from the project are set to revolutionise medical practice for good. The expected benefits include: enhanced discovery of disease genes, which will lead to improved knowledge on the ...
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Future Population Trends in China: 2005-2050
Chen Wei; Liu Jinju
2009-01-01
Using China's 2000 census data, this paper conducts population projection under different fertility scenarios to gauge the likely trends in China's future population change. The range of fertility assumptions captures the uncertainty of current fertility estimates as well as the likely trends under the family planning policy and economic development. Only one mortality scenario is applied and net international migration is assumed to be null in the population projection. Future life tables ar...
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School of the Future Handbook. A Guide for Technology Implementation. F. M. Black Middle School.
Smith, Richard Alan; Sassi, Anthony
In 1985, Apple Computer, Inc., and the Houston Independent School District began a project to create a model School of the Future at the F. M. Black Middle School. As described in this guide, the project was designed to demonstrate how microcomputers and related technology can make the process of instruction more efficient and effective. The…
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Davies, Sarah Rachael; Selin, Cynthia
2012-01-01
foresight and public and stakeholder engagement are used to reflect on?and direct?the impacts of new technology. In this essay we draw on our experience of anticipatory governance, in the shape of the ?NanoFutures? project on energy futures, to present a reflexive analysis of engagement and deliberation. We...... draw out five tensions of the practice of deliberation on energy technologies. Through tracing the lineages of these dilemmas, we discuss some of the implications of these tensions for the practice of civic engagement and deliberation in a set of questions for this community of practitioner-scholars....
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
none, none; Tuchman, Nancy [Institute of Environmental Sustainability (IES), Chicago, IL (United States)
2015-11-11
The U.S. Department of Energy awarded Loyola University Chicago and the Institute of Environmental Sustainability (IES) $486,000.00 for the proposal entitled “Chicago clean air, clean water project: Environmental monitoring for a healthy, sustainable urban future.” The project supported the purchase of analytical instruments for the development of an environmental analytical laboratory. The analytical laboratory is designed to support the testing of field water and soil samples for nutrients, industrial pollutants, heavy metals, and agricultural toxins, with special emphasis on testing Chicago regional soils and water affected by coal-based industry. Since the award was made in 2010, the IES has been launched (fall 2013), and the IES acquired a new state-of-the-art research and education facility on Loyola University Chicago’s Lakeshore campus. Two labs were included in the research and education facility. The second floor lab is the Ecology Laboratory where lab experiments and analyses are conducted on soil, plant, and water samples. The third floor lab is the Environmental Toxicology Lab where lab experiments on environmental toxins are conducted, as well as analytical tests conducted on water, soil, and plants. On the south end of the Environmental Toxicology Lab is the analytical instrumentation collection purchased from the present DOE grant, which is overseen by a full time Analytical Chemist (hired January 2016), who maintains the instruments, conducts analyses on samples, and helps to train faculty and undergraduate and graduate student researchers.
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Saint John lateral pipeline project: comprehensive study report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1999-02-01
A descripion is given of the results of an environmental impact assessment of the construction of a natural gas pipeline that will bring gas from Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline Management Ltd.'s (M and NP) main transmission pipeline to clients in Lake Utopia and Saint John, NB. It will be 110 km long, and the Saint John lateral will join the mainline approximately 2 km south of Big Kedron Lake, NB. Various institutional, industrial, commercial and residential clients will be able to access the pipeline in the future, and it is intended to be capable of future expansion for markets along its route and for markets that become economically feasible in the future. A matrix was developed that relates environmental resources to Environmental Components of Concern (ECCs), and to the rationale for exclusion/inclusion of the ECC as a Valued Environmental Component (VECs). The positive benefits of the pipeline to clients in the Saint John area include: reduced dependence on foreign oil, fuel switching and price competition, lower air emission pollution, increased energy efficiency, and a source of energy that is secure and reliable. VECs were selected based on: concerns of various stakeholders including the public, community groups, scientific parties, Aboriginal groups, government officials and agencies, relevant regulations; relevant literature; and past evaluation experiences, including future developments of the proposed study area. Further selection of the VECs required an examination of the issues picked out via scoping to determine the ways in which the overall project could affect the ECCs, and included construction, operation, decommissioning/abandonment, malfunctions and accidents of the pipeline. The phases of the project as they impacted residually and cumulatively on the VECs were evaluated, and impacts on Valued Socio-Economic Components (VSCs) were assessed also. The mitigation efforts taken will minimize the potential effects of the project on VECs and VSCs
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Beisel, Raymond W.
This report describes development of the "Prepare Them for the Future" project, a K-3 activity-oriented science curriculum. The program, funded through two grants, was driven by the need to boost the distressed labor-based economy in rural western Pennsylvania. Data showed a drop of 1,100 coal-mining jobs between 1980 and 1986 in Indiana…
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CARONTE project: Creating an Agenda for Research on Transportation Security
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Leon Bello, J.; Gonzalez Viosca, E.
2016-07-01
Europe’s prosperity relies on effective transport systems. Any attacks and disturbances to land freight and passenger transport would have significant impact on economic growth, territorial cohesion, social development and the environment. Unfortunately, there are weaknesses in the land transport security.The objective of CARONTE project is define a future research agenda for security in land transport that focuses on core gaps caused by emerging risks while avoiding any doubling-up of research elsewhere. Its research agenda will cover all threats, including cyber-crime, and security aspects across all modes of land transportation. At the same time, it will respect the fundamental human rights and privacy of European citizens. The step-by-step method of CARONTE’s consortium has analyzed the state of the art and emerging risks; has identified gaps, analyses and assessments of potential solutions; and has produced an overall research agenda for the future. CARONTE’s results will answer the following questions among others: Which existing research projects merit a follow up and extension? Where are the combinations or synergy effects to be attended? Which themes and topics should be elaborated in new research projects? Who should be involved and integrated in future research projects (stakeholders, authorities, etc.)? The CARONTE consortium includes universities and research institutes, companies, and end-users providing with experience in research and consultancy in transportation, logistics, infrastructure management, security and communications. ITENE - Instituto Tecnológico del Embalaje, Transporte y Logística-has been one of the Project partners among a total of 11 members from eight different countries in the European Union which have also been supported via a High Level Advisory Board. (Author)
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High-Energy Physics Strategies and Future Large-Scale Projects
Zimmermann, F
2015-01-01
We sketch the actual European and international strategies and possible future facilities. In the near term the High Energy Physics (HEP) community will fully exploit the physics potential of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) through its high-luminosity upgrade (HL-LHC). Post-LHC options include a linear e+e- collider in Japan (ILC) or at CERN (CLIC), as well as circular lepton or hadron colliders in China (CepC/SppC) and Europe (FCC). We conclude with linear and circular acceleration approaches based on crystals, and some perspectives for the far future of accelerator-based particle physics.
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A Systematic Approach to Modelling Change Processes in Construction Projects
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ibrahim Motawa
2012-11-01
Full Text Available Modelling change processes within construction projects isessential to implement changes efficiently. Incomplete informationon the project variables at the early stages of projects leads toinadequate knowledge of future states and imprecision arisingfrom ambiguity in project parameters. This lack of knowledge isconsidered among the main source of changes in construction.Change identification and evaluation, in addition to predictingits impacts on project parameters, can help in minimising thedisruptive effects of changes. This paper presents a systematicapproach to modelling change process within construction projectsthat helps improve change identification and evaluation. Theapproach represents the key decisions required to implementchanges. The requirements of an effective change processare presented first. The variables defined for efficient changeassessment and diagnosis are then presented. Assessmentof construction changes requires an analysis for the projectcharacteristics that lead to change and also analysis of therelationship between the change causes and effects. The paperconcludes that, at the early stages of a project, projects with a highlikelihood of change occurrence should have a control mechanismover the project characteristics that have high influence on theproject. It also concludes, for the relationship between changecauses and effects, the multiple causes of change should bemodelled in a way to enable evaluating the change effects moreaccurately. The proposed approach is the framework for tacklingsuch conclusions and can be used for evaluating change casesdepending on the available information at the early stages ofconstruction projects.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Anspaugh, L.R.; Hendrickson, S.M. [eds.
1994-12-01
In April 1988, the US and the former-USSR signed a Memorandum of Cooperation (MOC) for Civilian Nuclear Reactor Safety; this MOC was a direct result of the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Unit 4 and the following efforts by the two countries to implement a joint program to improve the safety of nuclear power plants and to understand the implications of environmental releases. A Joint Coordinating Committee for Civilian Nuclear Reactor Safety (JCCCNRS) was formed to implement the MOC. The JCCCNRS established many working groups; most of these were the responsibility of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, as far as the US participation was concerned. The lone exception was Working Group 7 on Environmental Transport and Health Effects, for which the US participation was the responsibility of the US Department of Energy (DOE). The purpose of Working Group 7 was succintly stated to be, ``To develop jointly methods to project rapidly the health effects of any future nuclear reactor accident.`` To implement the work DOE then formed two subworking groups: 7.1 to address Environmental Transport and 7.2 to address Health Effects. Thus, the DOE-funded Chernobyl Studies Project began. The majority of the initial tasks for this project are completed or near completion. The focus is now turned to the issue of health effects from the Chernobyl accident. Currently, we are involved in and making progress on the case-control and co-hort studies of thyroid diseases among Belarussian children. Dosimetric aspects are a fundamental part of these studies. We are currently working to implement similar studies in Ukraine. A major part of the effort of these projects is supporting these studies, both by providing methods and applications of dose reconstruction and by providing support and equipment for the medical teams.
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Modeling the Hydrologic Effects of Large-Scale Green Infrastructure Projects with GIS
Bado, R. A.; Fekete, B. M.; Khanbilvardi, R.
2015-12-01
Impervious surfaces in urban areas generate excess runoff, which in turn causes flooding, combined sewer overflows, and degradation of adjacent surface waters. Municipal environmental protection agencies have shown a growing interest in mitigating these effects with 'green' infrastructure practices that partially restore the perviousness and water holding capacity of urban centers. Assessment of the performance of current and future green infrastructure projects is hindered by the lack of adequate hydrological modeling tools; conventional techniques fail to account for the complex flow pathways of urban environments, and detailed analyses are difficult to prepare for the very large domains in which green infrastructure projects are implemented. Currently, no standard toolset exists that can rapidly and conveniently predict runoff, consequent inundations, and sewer overflows at a city-wide scale. We demonstrate how streamlined modeling techniques can be used with open-source GIS software to efficiently model runoff in large urban catchments. Hydraulic parameters and flow paths through city blocks, roadways, and sewer drains are automatically generated from GIS layers, and ultimately urban flow simulations can be executed for a variety of rainfall conditions. With this methodology, users can understand the implications of large-scale land use changes and green/gray storm water retention systems on hydraulic loading, peak flow rates, and runoff volumes.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schwerdtner Mánez, Kathleen; Holm, Poul; Blight, Louise
2014-01-01
Populations’’ project, this paper identifies the emerging research topics for future historical marine research. It elaborates on concepts and tools which are expected to play a major role in answering these questions, and identifies geographical regions which deserve future attention from marine...
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New Zealand's neurologist workforce: a pragmatic analysis of demand, supply and future projections.
Ranta, Annemarei Anna; Tiwari, Priyesh; Mottershead, John; Abernethy, David; Simpson, Mark; Brickell, Kiri; Lynch, Christopher; Walker, Elizabeth; Frith, Richard
2015-08-07
To estimate current and future specialist neurologist demand and supply to assist with health sector planning. Current demand for the neurology workforce in New Zealand was assessed using neuroepidemiological data. To assess current supply, all New Zealand neurology departments were surveyed to determine current workforce and estimate average neurologist productivity. Projections were made based on current neurologists anticipated retirement rates and addition of new neurologists based on current training positions. We explored several models to address the supply-demand gap. The current supply of neurologists in New Zealand is 36 full-time equivalents (FTE), insufficient to meet current demand of 74 FTE. Demand will grow over time and if status quo is maintained the gap will widen. Pressures on healthcare dollars are ever increasing and we cannot expect to address the identified service gap by immediately doubling the number of neurologists. Instead we propose a 12-year strategic approach with investments to enhance service productivity, strengthen collaborative efforts between specialists and general service providers, moderately increase the number of neurologists and neurology training positions, and develop highly skilled non-specialists including trained.
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Uncertainty in projected impacts of climate change on biodiversity
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Garcia, Raquel A.
Evidence for shifts in the phenologies and distributions of species over recent decades has often been attributed to climate change. The prospect of greater and faster changes in climate during the 21st century has spurred a stream of studies anticipating future biodiversity impacts. Yet, uncerta......Evidence for shifts in the phenologies and distributions of species over recent decades has often been attributed to climate change. The prospect of greater and faster changes in climate during the 21st century has spurred a stream of studies anticipating future biodiversity impacts. Yet......, uncertainty is inherent to both projected climate changes and their effects on biodiversity, and needs to be understood before projections can be used. This thesis seeks to elucidate some of the uncertainties clouding assessments of biodiversity impacts from climate change, and explores ways to address them...... models, are shown to be affected by multiple uncertainties. Different model algorithms produce different outputs, as do alternative future climate models and scenarios of future emissions of greenhouse gases. Another uncertainty arises due to omission of species with small sample sizes, which...
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PERMEABLE TREATMENT WALL EFFECTIVENESS MONITORING PROJECT, NEVADA STEWART MINE
This report summarizes the results of Mine Waste Technology Program (MWTP) Activity III, Project 39, Permeable Treatment Wall Effectiveness Monitoring Project, implemented and funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and jointly administered by EPA and the U.S. De...
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El Kenawy, Ahmed M.
2016-07-28
An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975–2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December–May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.
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El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew F.
2017-10-01
An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975-2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December-May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Annamalai, H. [Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States)
2014-09-15
The overall goal of this project is to assess the ability of the CMIP3/5 models to simulate the Indian-Ocean monsoon systems. The PI along with post-docs investigated research issues ranging from synoptic systems to long-term trends over the Asian monsoon region. The PI applied diagnostic tools such as moist static energy (MSE) to isolate: the moist and radiative processes responsible for extended monsoon breaks over South Asia, precursors in the ENSO-monsoon association, reasons for the drying tendency over South Asia and the possible effect on tropical Indian Ocean climate anomalies influencing certain aspects of ENSO characteristics. By diagnosing various observations and coupled model simulations, we developed working hypothesis and tested them by carrying out sensitivity experiments with both linear and nonlinear models. Possible physical and dynamical reasons for model sensitivities were deduced. On the teleconnection front, the ability of CMIP5 models in representing the monsoon-desert mechanism was examined recently. Further more, we have applied a suite of diagnostics and have performed an in depth analysis on CMIP5 integrations to isolate the possible reasons for the ENSO-monsoon linkage or lack thereof. The PI has collaborated with Dr. K.R. Sperber of PCMDI and other CLIVAR Asian-Australian monsoon panel members in understanding the ability of CMIP3/5 models in capturing monsoon and its spectrum of variability. The objective and process-based diagnostics aided in selecting models that best represent the present-day monsoon and its variability that are then employed for future projections. Two major highlights were an invitation to write a review on present understanding monsoons in a changing climate in Nature Climate Change, and identification of an east-west shift in observed monsoon rainfall (more rainfall over tropical western Pacific and drying tendency over South Asia) in the last six decades and attributing that shift to SST rise over the tropical
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Future changes in heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities
Guerreiro, Selma; Dawson, Richard; Kilsby, Chris; Lewis, Elizabeth; Ford, Alistair
2017-04-01
Future changes in heat-waves, droughts and floods were assessed for 571 European cities. We used all available climate model runs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 - CMIP5 - for their higher emission scenario (RCP8.5) and grouped the projections into Low, Mid and High impact scenarios. This resulted in impact projections outside the range of published literature, but enabled us to better understand uncertainties in future climate projections (both due to climate model errors but also the effects of natural variability) therefore providing the basis for broad scale risk analysis and thereafter identification of robust adaptation strategies. While heat-waves will worsen for every European city, changes in droughts and floods are spatially variable and climate model dependent. The largest increases in the number of heat-wave days are shown to be in southern Europe, but higher heat-wave maximum temperature increases are expected in the mid-latitudes. In the low impact scenario, drought conditions are expected to intensify only in southern Europe while river flooding in expected to worsen in the north. However, in the high impact scenario most European cities show increases in both drought conditions and river flooding. There is a very wide range of projections for future changes in Europe with disagreement between different studies, partly due to their methodological differences but potentially also due to the small number of climate model runs that limits the uncertainties due to natural variability and model errors that each study captures.
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Sterk, Steve; Chesley, Stephan
2008-01-01
The upcoming retirement of the Baby Boomers will leave a workforce age gap between the younger generation (the future NASA decision makers) and the gray beards. This paper will reflect on the average age of the workforce across NASA Centers, the Aerospace Industry and other Government Agencies, like DoD. This paper will dig into Productivity and Realization Factors and how they get applied to bi-monthly (payroll) data for true full-time equivalent (FTE) calculations that could be used at each of the NASA Centers and other business systems that are on the forefront in being implemented. This paper offers some comparative costs analysis/solutions, from simple FTE cost-estimating relationships (CERs) versus CERs for monthly time-phasing activities for small research projects that start and get completed within a government fiscal year. This paper will present the results of a parametric study investigating the cost-effectiveness of alternative performance-based CERs and how they get applied into the Center's forward pricing rate proposals (FPRP). True CERs based on the relationship of a younger aged workforce will have some effects on labor rates used in both commercial cost models and other internal home-grown cost models which may impact the productivity factors for future NASA missions.
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SPADA: a project to study the effectiveness of shielding materials in space
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pugliese, M.; Casolino, M.; Cerciello, V.
2008-01-01
The SPADA (SPAce Dosimetry for Astronauts) project is a part of an extensive teamwork that aims to optimize shielding solutions against space radiation. Shielding is indeed all irreplaceable tool to reduce, exposure of crews of future Moon and Mars missions. We concentrated our studies on two flexible materials, Kevlar (R) and Nextel (R), because of their ability to protect space infrastructure from micro meteoroids measured radiation hardness of these shielding materials and compared to polyethylene, generally acknowledged as the most effective space radiation shield with practical applications in spacecraft. Both flight test (on the International Space Station and on the Russian FOTON M3 rocket), with passive dosimeters and accelerator-based experiments have been performed. Accelerator tests using high-energy Fe ions have demonstrated that Kevlar is almost as effective as polyethylene in shielding heavy ions, while Nextel is a poor shield against, high-charge and -energy particles. Preliminary results from spaceflight, however, show that for the radiation environment ill low-Earth orbit. dominated by trapped protons, thin shields of Kevlar and Nextel provide limited reduction.
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Mikolajczyk, U.; Suppan, P.; Williams, M.
2015-12-01
Quantification of potential health benefits of reductions in air pollution on the local scale is becoming increasingly important. The aim of this study is to conduct health impact assessment (HIA) by utilizing regionally and spatially specific data in order to assess the influence of future emission scenarios on human health. In the first stage of this investigation, a modeling study was carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry to estimate ambient concentrations of air pollutants for the baseline year 2009, and for the future emission scenarios in southern Germany. Anthropogenic emissions for the baseline year 2009 are derived from the emission inventory provided by the Netherlands Organization of Applied Scientific Research (TNO) (Denier van der Gon et al., 2010). For Germany, the TNO emissions were replaced by gridded emission data with a high spatial resolution of 1/64 x 1/64 degrees. Future air quality simulations are carried out under different emission scenarios, which reflect possible energy and climate measures in year 2030. The model set-up included a nesting approach, where three domains with horizontal resolution of 18 km, 6 km and 2 km were defined. The simulation results for the baseline year 2009 are used to quantify present-day health burdens. Concentration-response functions (CRFs) for PM2.5 and NO2 from the WHO Health risks of air Pollution in Europe (HRAPIE) project were applied to population-weighted mean concentrations to estimate relative risks and hence to determine numbers of attributable deaths and associated life-years lost. In the next step, future health impacts of projected concentrations were calculated taking into account different emissions scenarios. The health benefits that we assume with air pollution reductions can be used to provide options for future policy decisions to protect public health.
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Economic case for CANDU life extension projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Qureshi, S.; Tenev, T.; Lewi, M.
2014-01-01
As CANDU reactors approach their original end of design life utilities are faced with two options: to extend the operating life of the reactor by undergoing a life extension project (LEP), or to commence decommissioning activities. Recent project experience has shown that there is economic merit in extending the life of the operating reactor. There are many benefits to such a decision, the most obvious being the revenue that will be generated from the additional years of electricity production by the utility. Delays in decommissioning are also advantageous since the large costs associated with such a long-term activity are pushed into the future, thereby decreasing the net present value (NPV) of the investment. In addition, relatively few power reactors have been fully decommissioned to date and deferring this activity transfers the associated risks to others that are currently obligated to undertake decommissioning activities sooner. Candu Energy has been involved with the life extension projects of the following CANDU reactors: Point Lepreau (New Brunswick, Canada), Bruce Unit 1 and Unit 2 (Ontario, Canada), and Wolsong Unit 1 (South Korea). These reactors underwent fuel channel replacement programs in addition to replacement of major reactor components. Most recently, both Ontario Power Generation (OPG) and Nucleoelectrica Argentina Sociedad Anonima (NA-SA) have commenced work on life extension projects at the Darlington (Canada) and Embalse (Argentina) sites respectively. The experience gained from previous LEP projects allows Candu Energy to deliver future projects in a timely, efficient, and cost effective manner. (author)
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tegen, Suzanne
2017-05-24
This presentation provides an overview of findings from a report published in 2016 by researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, An Initial Evaluation of Siting Considerations on Current and Future Wind Deployment. The presentation covers the background for research, the Energy Department's Wind Vision, research methods, siting considerations, the wind project deployment process, and costs associated with siting considerations.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fei Yuan
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Quantitative evaluation of future climate change impacts on hydrological drought characteristics is one of important measures for implementing sustainable water resources management and effective disaster mitigation in drought-prone regions under the changing environment. In this study, a modeling system for projecting the potential future climate change impacts on hydrological droughts in the Weihe River basin (WRB in North China is presented. This system consists of a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from three climate models (CMs for future streamflow projections, a probabilistic model for univariate drought assessment, and a copula-based bivariate model for joint drought frequency analysis under historical and future climates. With the observed historical climate data as the inputs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model projects an overall runoff reduction in the WRB under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. The univariate drought assessment found that although fewer hydrological drought events would occur under A1B scenario, drought duration and severity tend to increase remarkably. Moreover, the bivariate drought assessment reveals that future droughts in the same return period as the baseline droughts would become more serious. With these trends in the future, the hydrological drought situation in the WRB would be further deteriorated.
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Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu
2013-01-01
Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.
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Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?
Liao, Wei; Timm, Oliver Elison; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.
2015-01-01
Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.
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Fleskens, L.; Stroosnijder, L.; Graaff, de J.
2004-01-01
The project will devote itself to the future of olive plantation systems on sloping and mountainous land in southern Europe. These systems have been affected by emigration of local populations and fierce competition from low land plantations and from non-EU countries, and are currently neither
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Suicide among Older People: Projections for the Future.
Haas, Ann Pollinger; Hendin, Herbert
1983-01-01
Demonstrates the relationship between cohort size and longitudinal suicide rates, with reference to four particular cohorts. Combines this perspective with projected population increases among older age groups to estimate the scope of the problem of suicide among older people during the early decades of the next century. (Author/JAC)
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Friso de Zeeuw
2010-04-01
Full Text Available The Netherlands has a tradition in public spatial planning and design. In the past 20 years, we have seen an increasing role for the market in this field, and more recently, growing attention for sustainability. Sustainability has become an economic factor. Not only at the building level, but also on the level of large-scale area development projects. More and more local governments have high ambitions for sustainable development. Increasingly, during project development, buildings are developed on a sustainable basis. Most of the time, the focus in this approach is on energy. However, sustainability also comprises social aspects. Energy measures have a direct relation to an economic factor such as investment costs, and payback time can be calculated. The economic aspects of social sustainability are more complex. Therefore, for all sustainability development projects, especially in large-scale projects planned over a longer period, it is necessary to make presumptions, which are less reliable as the planning period is extended. For future larger-scale developments, experience in the Netherlands points to two design approaches: ‘backcasting’, or using a growth model (or a combination of these two. The power of design is the ability to imagine possible scenarios for the future. The layer approach helps to integrate sustainability into public spatial planning. And more specifically, Urban Design Management (UDM supports an integrative and collaborative approach also on the operational level of a project in which public and market partners work together. This article outlines how design, based on these approaches, can contribute to sustainable development based on the ‘new playing field’, where spatial problems should be solved in networks. Dutch projects in Almere (Benoordenhout and Rijswijk are used to illustrate this approach.
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When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future.
Ballard, Timothy; Lewandowsky, Stephan
2015-11-28
Climate change projections necessarily involve uncertainty. Analysis of the physics and mathematics of the climate system reveals that greater uncertainty about future temperature increases is nearly always associated with greater expected damages from climate change. In contrast to those normative constraints, uncertainty is frequently cited in public discourse as a reason to delay mitigative action. This failure to understand the actual implications of uncertainty may incur notable future costs. It is therefore important to communicate uncertainty in a way that improves people's understanding of climate change risks. We examined whether responses to projections were influenced by whether the projection emphasized uncertainty in the outcome or in its time of arrival. We presented participants with statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification and a decrease in arctic sea ice. In the uncertain-outcome condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected outcome at a fixed time point. In the uncertain time-of-arrival condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival for a fixed outcome. Results suggested that people perceived the threat as more serious and were more likely to encourage mitigative action in the time-uncertain condition than in the outcome-uncertain condition. This finding has implications for effectively communicating the climate change risks to policy-makers and the general public. © 2015 The Author(s).
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Lingen, J.L.N. van; Meuken, D.; Hackspik, M.M.; Mäkeläinen, T.; Weiser, V.; Poulson, G.W.
2014-01-01
This poster describes the work done within the Category B joint research project under the European Defence Agency (EDA) on Future Flare Compositions [1]. Contributing members were Finland, Germany, United Kingdom and the Netherlands. The program was aimed to identify the technology gaps that apply
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Blok, Anders
2017-01-01
, in the imaginative politics of climatic projections. To rethink the resultant political aesthetics of climate change, the article maps out the visual, experiential, and affective forms in which endangered climatic futures come to saturate public culture. Such encounters, the article suggests, constitute inter-media...
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The Future of Federal Education Policy.
Guthrie, James W.
1983-01-01
This article explores the evolution of federal government policy on education during the past 20 years, points out trends likely to influence future policy, and projects possible future responses to these trends. The roles of educational interest groups instrumental in passing the legislation are described. (PP)
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Efficient and Effective Project Management
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dusan Pene
2014-03-01
Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to investigate different authorities and responsibilities of a project manager and of a project leader. Considering the fact that nowadays the project management is becoming the important factor in performing and leading the investments which are modified by modern leadership theories, we can say that the key element is the sovereign leadership of a manager and a project leader. The current multi-project environments and modern techniques at the project management area need the interdisciplinary leadership approach and at the same time they enable the strengthening of company’s competitive features so they are consistently satisfying high project expectations of the project investor or a client.
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Projections of the current and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia.
McDonald, Scott A; Dahlui, Maznah; Mohamed, Rosmawati; Naning, Herlianna; Shabaruddin, Fatiha Hana; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba
2015-01-01
The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia has been estimated at 2.5% of the adult population. Our objective, satisfying one of the directives of the WHO Framework for Global Action on Viral Hepatitis, was to forecast the HCV disease burden in Malaysia using modelling methods. An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed. In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039. The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia.
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Carbon Dioxide Physiological Forcing Dominates Projected Eastern Amazonian Drying
Richardson, T. B.; Forster, P. M.; Andrews, T.; Boucher, O.; Faluvegi, G.; Fläschner, D.; Kasoar, M.; Kirkevâg, A.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Myhre, G.; Olivié, D.; Samset, B. H.; Shawki, D.; Shindell, D.; Takemura, T.; Voulgarakis, A.
2018-03-01
Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyze the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Black carbon is found to drive reduced precipitation over the Amazon due to temperature-driven circulation changes, but the magnitude is uncertain. CO2 drives reductions in precipitation concentrated in the east, mainly due to a robustly negative, but highly variable in magnitude, fast response. We find that the physiological effect of CO2 on plant stomata is the dominant driver of the fast response due to reduced latent heating and also contributes to the large model spread. Using a simple model, we show that CO2 physiological effects dominate future multimodel mean precipitation projections over the Amazon. However, in individual models temperature-driven changes can be large, but due to little agreement, they largely cancel out in the model mean.
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The Manhattan Project and its Effects on American Women Scientists
Fletcher, Samuel
2008-04-01
There have been many detailed historical accounts of the Manhattan Project, but few have recognized the technical role women scientists and engineers crucially played in the Project's success. Despite their absence from these prominent accounts, recent studies have revealed that, in fact, women participated in every non-combat operation associated with the Manhattan Project. With such extensive participation of women and such a former lack of historical attention upon them, little analysis has been done on how the Manhattan Project might have influenced the prospectus of women scientists after the war. This talk has two aims: 1) to recount some of the technical and scientific contributions of women to the Manhattan Project, and 2) to examine what effects these contributions had on the women's careers as scientists. In other words, I intend offer a preliminary explanation of the extent to which the Manhattan Project acted both as a boon and as a detriment to American women scientists. And finally, I will address what this historical analysis could imply about the effects of current efforts to recruit women into science.
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Heavy-ion fusion: Future promise and future directions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dudziak, D.J.; Saylor, W.W.; Pendergrass, J.H.
1986-01-01
The previous several papers in this heavy-ion fusion special session have described work that has taken place as part of the Heavy-Ion Fusion Systems Assessment (HIFSA) project. Key technical issues in the design and costing of targets, accelerator systems, beam transport, reactor and balance-of-plant, and systems integration have been identified and described. The HIFSA systems model was used to measure the relative value of improvements in physics understanding and technology developments in many different areas. The result of this study has been to, within the limits of our 1986 imagination and creativity, define the ''most attractive'' future heavy-ion fusion (HIF) power plant at some time in the future (beyond the year 2020 in this case). The project has specifically avoided narrowing the focus to a point facility design; thus, the generic systems modeling capability developed in the process allows for a relative comparison among design options. The authors describe what are thought to be achievable breakthroughs and what the relative significance of the breakthroughs will be, although the specific mechanism for achieving some breakthroughs may not be clear at this point
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Toge, Nobu
1993-01-01
This paper presents a brief report on the present status of future accelerator projects at the National Laboratory for High Energy Physics (KEK), Japan. The KEK laboratory has been successfully operating the TRISTAN accelerator complex since 1986. It consists of a 2.5 GeV electron/positron linac, an 8 GeV Accumulation Ring (AR) and a 29 GeV Main Ring (MR). Concurrently with this operation, in response to recommendations by the Japanese High Energy Physics Committee, survey studies have been continued on new accelerator facilities at KEK. They have two major future projects, namely, the asymmetric e + e - B-factory based on TRISTAN (TRISTAN-II) and the Japan Linear Collider (JLC). The purpose of this paper is to outline those research activities and to present an update on their status
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Projection for new city future scenarios – A case study for Kuwait
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nayef Alghais
2018-03-01
Full Text Available The creation of new cities is a planning approach adopted in several regions around the world, in order to accommodate urban growth. New cities are typically constructed according to well-thought out, centralised plans in areas without any prior development. However, whether the development of these new cities is able to address existing urban issues more effectively than traditional methods such as intensification, is currently an unanswered research question. Several Arabian Gulf countries, such as Kuwait are considering the construction of new cities to address urban issues, specifically the traffic congestion and housing shortages. In Kuwait, the master plan for these construction projects was developed solely by state authorities without any public participation or urban modelling that may have provided a more well-rounded view of the potential impacts and effectiveness.This paper aims to address these research opportunities of investigating the effectiveness of new cities in addressing traffic congestion and housing shortage, as well as the potential to integrate public opinions in urban development in the form of a model. Towards that end, the study proposes an Agent Based Model (ABM that will allow simulating the population distribution and urban growth impacts of new cities in Kuwait by 2050. The methodology involves collecting primary data via interviewing the key government stakeholders of urban development and surveying the residents in order to collect the model inputs. In Kuwait's society, citizens and non-citizens form two distinct resident groups with often very diverse needs and lifestyles; hence the survey responses will differentiate between them. The data from the interviews and surveys from both resident groups will be incorporated as agent behaviours in the ABM. The simulations examine a multitude of scenarios for the new cities, involving construction delays and infrastructure project delays. The results indicate that the
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The Universities and JAERI joint research project. The achievements and prospects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ohashi, Hiroshi; Nakamura, Takashi; Yamaguchi, Sadaei
1999-01-01
The universities and JAERI joint research project has been carried out since 13 years ago on an equivalent basis with the universities and JAERI and co-ownership of the results. This paper consists of the history and results of research project and evaluation. The significance, characteristics, themes and problems of the project are arranged. The main results and the future of the project are explained. Two large projects such as the backend chemical project and the high-degree application of radiation project have been studied. The backend chemical project consisted of four themes; the nuclear chemical researches for TRU recycle, the solid chemical research of nuclear fuel and waste, new separation method for reprocessing and waste disposal and the fundamental chemical researches for disposal waste. The high-degree application of radiation project have eight themes; effects of ion beam on organism, slow positron generation and its application to materials, ion irradiation effects on polymer materials, nuclear spectroscopy and nuclear physics of isotope using online isotope separator, shield and behavior of accelerator radiation, materials analysis by ion beam, effects of nuclear transformation product by nuclear fusion reactor radiation damage and biofunction analysis of plant using positron release nuclide. (S.Y.)
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reckova, Dominika; Recka, Lukacs; Scasny, Milan
2017-01-01
This is one of the 6 country case-studies commissioned to collect experience on past coal transitions. The 6 countries are: Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, UK, USA. Their role in the Coal Transitions project was to provide background information for a Synthesis Report for decision makers, and provide general lessons for national project teams to take into account in developing their coal transitions pathways for the future. Content: History of coal production and coal reserves; Key features of the Czech economy; Fuel mix in the Czech Republic 1990 - 2014; Key features of coal sector in the Czech Republic after 1990; The use of coal in the Czech Republic and its possible replacement: A. Coal as source of Electricity, B. Coal as Heating source, C. Non - energy coal use; The state role in the coal sector after 1990 - mining limits; Measures to ease transition: Phasing-out of mining activities, Rehabilitation of environmentally damaged land, Programmes financing the remediation of ecological damage, Remediation of environmental damage caused by mining; Future outlook; Lessons learned; References; Annex
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BWR radiation exposure--experience and projection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Falk, C.F.; Wilkinson, C.D.; Hollander, W.R.
1979-01-01
The BWR/6 Mark III radiation exposures are projected to be about half of those of current average operating experience of 725 man-rem. These projections are said to be realistic and based on current achievements and not on promises of future development. The several BWRs operating with low primary system radiation levels are positive evidence that radiation sources can be reduced. Improvements have been made in reducing the maintenance times for the BWR/6, and further improvements can be made by further attention to cost-effective plant arrangement and layout during detail design to improve accessibility and maintainability of each system and component
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A Quantitative Measure For Evaluating Project Uncertainty Under Variation And Risk Effects
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Chenarani
2017-10-01
Full Text Available The effects of uncertainty on a project and the risk event as the consequence of uncertainty are analyzed. The uncertainty index is proposed as a quantitative measure for evaluating the uncertainty of a project. This is done by employing entropy as the indicator of system disorder and lack of information. By employing this index, the uncertainty of each activity and its increase due to risk effects as well as project uncertainty changes as a function of time can be assessed. The results are implemented and analyzed for a small turbojet engine development project as the case study. The results of this study can be useful for project managers and other stakeholders for selecting the most effective risk management and uncertainty controlling method.
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Important projects of the Division
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2008-01-01
In this chapter important projects of the Division for Radiation Safety, NPP Decommissioning and Radwaste Management of the VUJE, a. s. are presented. Division for Radiation Safety, NPP Decommissioning and Radwaste Management has successfully carried out variety of significant projects. The most significant projects that were realised, are implemented and possible future projects are introduced in the following part of presentation.
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Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios
Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.
1992-01-01
The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all
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Sterk, Steve; Chesley, Stephen
2008-01-01
The upcoming retirement of the Baby Boomers on the horizon will leave a performance gap between younger generation (the future NASA decision makers) and the gray beards. This paper will reflect on the average age of workforce across NASA Centers, the Aerospace Industry and other Government Agencies, like DoD. This papers will dig into Productivity and Realization Factors and how they get applied to bimonthly (payroll data) for true FTE calculations that could be used at each of the NASA Centers and other business systems that are on the forefront in being implemented. This paper offers some comparative costs solutions, from simple - full time equivalent (FTE) cost estimating relationships CERs, to complex - CERs for monthly time-phasing activities for small research projects that start and get completed within a government fiscal year. This paper will present the results of a parametric study investigating the cost-effectiveness of different alternatives performance based cost estimating relationships (CERs) and how they get applied into the Center s forward pricing rate proposals (FPRP). True CERs based on the relationship of a younger aged workforce will have some effects on labor rates used in both commercial cost models and internal home-grown cost models which may impact the productivity factors for future NASA missions.
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Design Creativity: Future Directions for Integrated Visualisation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jack Steven Goulding
2015-11-01
Full Text Available The Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC sectors are facing unprecedented challenges, not just with increased complexity of projects per se, but design-related integration. This requires stakeholders to radically re-think their existing business models (and thinking that underpins them, but also the technological challenges and skills required to deliver these projects. Whilst opponents will no doubt cite that this is nothing new as the sector as a whole has always had to respond to change; the counter to this is that design ‘creativity’ is now much more dependent on integration from day one. Given this, collaborative processes embedded in Building Information Modelling (BIM models have been proffered as a panacea solution to embrace this change and deliver streamlined integration. The veracity of design teams’ “project data” is increasingly becoming paramount - not only for the coordination of design, processes, engineering services, fabrication, construction, and maintenance; but more importantly, facilitate ‘true’ project integration and interchange – the actualisation of which will require firm consensus and commitment. This Special Issue envisions some of these issues, challenges and opportunities (from a future landscape perspective, by highlighting a raft of concomitant factors, which include: technological challenges, design visualisation and integration, future digital tools, new and anticipated operating environments, and training requirements needed to deliver these aspirations. A fundamental part of this Special Issue’s ‘call’ was to capture best practice in order to demonstrate how design, visualisation and delivery processes (and technologies affect the finished product viz: design outcome, design procedures, production methodologies and construction implementation. In this respect, the use of virtual environments are now particularly effective at supporting the design and delivery processes. In
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Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.
Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís
2016-07-01
Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Effective wavelength calibration for moire fringe projection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Purcell, Daryl; Davies, Angela; Farahi, Faramarz
2006-01-01
The fringe patterns seen when using moire instruments are similar to the patterns seen in traditional interferometry but differ in the spacing between consecutive fringes. In traditional interferometry, the spacing is constant and related to the wavelength of the source. In moire fringe projection, the spacing (the effective wavelength) may not be constant over the field of view and the spacing depends on the system geometry. In these cases, using a constant effective wavelength over the field of view causes inaccurate surface height measurements. We examine the calibration process of the moirefringe projection measurement, which takes this varying wavelength into account to produce a pixel-by-pixel wavelength map. The wavelength calibration procedure is to move the object in the out-of-plane direction a known distance until every pixel intensity value goes through at least one cycle. A sinusoidal function is then fit to the data to extract the effective wavelength pixel by pixel, yielding an effective wavelength map. A calibrated step height was used to validate the effective wavelength map with results within 1% of the nominal value of the step height. The error sources that contributed to the uncertainty in determining the height of the artifact are also investigated
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Effective and efficient implementation of alternative project delivery : research summary.
2017-05-01
Alternative project delivery (APD) methods such as Design Build (DB) and Construction Manager at Risk (CMAR), are used by state departments of transportation to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of project delivery. The Maryland Department of ...
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Watanabe, S.; Kim, H.; Utsumi, N.
2017-12-01
This study aims to develop a new approach which projects hydrology under climate change using super ensemble experiments. The use of multiple ensemble is essential for the estimation of extreme, which is a major issue in the impact assessment of climate change. Hence, the super ensemble experiments are recently conducted by some research programs. While it is necessary to use multiple ensemble, the multiple calculations of hydrological simulation for each output of ensemble simulations needs considerable calculation costs. To effectively use the super ensemble experiments, we adopt a strategy to use runoff projected by climate models directly. The general approach of hydrological projection is to conduct hydrological model simulations which include land-surface and river routing process using atmospheric boundary conditions projected by climate models as inputs. This study, on the other hand, simulates only river routing model using runoff projected by climate models. In general, the climate model output is systematically biased so that a preprocessing which corrects such bias is necessary for impact assessments. Various bias correction methods have been proposed, but, to the best of our knowledge, no method has proposed for variables other than surface meteorology. Here, we newly propose a method for utilizing the projected future runoff directly. The developed method estimates and corrects the bias based on the pseudo-observation which is a result of retrospective offline simulation. We show an application of this approach to the super ensemble experiments conducted under the program of Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI). More than 400 ensemble experiments from multiple climate models are available. The results of the validation using historical simulations by HAPPI indicates that the output of this approach can effectively reproduce retrospective runoff variability. Likewise, the bias of runoff from super ensemble climate
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yang Ren
2018-04-01
Full Text Available The implementation of China’s natural forest protection project (Protection Project in 1998 changed households’ forestry production modes in project regions, and China’s new circular collective forest tenure reform (Tenure Reform has been implemented since 2003 with the goal of motivating household forestry production and increasing household income from forests. Policymakers expect that Tenure Reform could also stimulate households to engage in non-timber forest products (NTFPs production in Protection Project regions. However, only a few studies have investigated the effect of Tenure Reform on household NTFP production in Protection Project regions. To fill this gap, we built an integrative conceptual framework and estimated a corresponding structural equation model (SEM using survey data from 932 households in Protection Project regions in southwestern China. In our research framework, there are four factors, including household characteristics, labour and social capital, forestland characteristics, and the Tenure Reform, affecting household NTFP production. The results substantiate that Tenure Reform has had a significant positive effect on household NTFP production. Additionally, household and forestland characteristics have promoted household NTFP production, but quantitatively less than Tenure Reform. This report can be used to inform the government that future investment in Tenure Reform still needs to be enhanced, and policy enforcement still needs to be strengthened.
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Episodic future thinking in semantic dementia: a cognitive and FMRI study.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Armelle Viard
Full Text Available Semantic dementia (SD is characterized by gradual loss of semantic memory. While episodic autobiographical memory seems relatively preserved, behavioral studies suggest that episodic future thinking is impaired. We used fMRI to measure brain activity in four SD patients (JPL, EP, LL, EG while they envisioned future events and remembered personal past events. Twelve healthy elders served as controls. Episodic quality, emotion, mental imagery and level of consciousness (via remember/know judgements were checked at debriefing. We analyzed the future compared to the past for each patient. All patients presented lateral temporal atrophy, but varied in terms of frontal and anterior hippocampal atrophy. Patient JPL presented atrophy in bilateral superior medial frontal gyri and left anterior hippocampus and was unable to engage in episodic future thinking, despite hyperactivations in frontal and occipital regions. Patient EP presented no atrophy in the anterior hippocampus, but atrophy in bilateral superior medial frontal gyrus and had difficulties to engage in episodic future thinking. Patient LL presented atrophy in left anterior hippocampus, but hyperactivated its right counterpart for future compared to past thinking, permitting her to project efficiently in the future in an episodic way. Patient EG presented no atrophy in the superior medial frontal gyri or anterior hippocampi and was able to engage in episodic future thinking. Altogether, patients' future projections differed depending on the severity and localization of their atrophy. The functional integrity of bilateral superior medial frontal gyri and anterior hippocampus appear crucial for episodic future thinking: atrophy of both structures strongly impairs future projection, while integrity of these structures or hyperactivation of residual tissue normalizes episodic future projection.
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METHODS OF SELECTING THE EFFECTIVE MODELS OF BUILDINGS REPROFILING PROJECTS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Александр Иванович МЕНЕЙЛЮК
2016-02-01
Full Text Available The article highlights the important task of project management in reprofiling of buildings. It is expedient to pay attention to selecting effective engineering solutions to reduce the duration and cost reduction at the project management in the construction industry. This article presents a methodology for the selection of efficient organizational and technical solutions for the reconstruction of buildings reprofiling. The method is based on a compilation of project variants in the program Microsoft Project and experimental statistical analysis using the program COMPEX. The introduction of this technique in the realigning of buildings allows choosing efficient models of projects, depending on the given constraints. Also, this technique can be used for various construction projects.
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Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stefan Zacharias
2014-12-01
Full Text Available The influence of future climate change on the occurrence of heat waves and its implications for heat wave-related mortality due to ischemic heart diseases (IHD in Germany is studied. Simulations of 19 regional climate models with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° forced by the moderate climate change scenario A1B are analyzed. Three model time periods of 30 years are evaluated, representing present climate (1971–2000, near future climate (2021–2050, and remote future climate (2069–2098. Heat waves are defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with daily mean air temperature above the 97.5th percentile of the all-season temperature distribution. Based on the model simulations, future heat waves in Germany will be significantly more frequent, longer lasting and more intense. By the end of the 21st century, the number of heat waves will be tripled compared to present climate. Additionally, the average duration of heat waves will increase by 25%, accompanied by an increase of the average temperature during heat waves by about 1 K. Regional analyses show that stronger than average climate change effects are observed particularly in the southern regions of Germany. Furthermore, we investigated climate change impacts on IHD mortality in Germany applying temperature projections from 19 regional climate models to heat wave mortality relationships identified in a previous study. Future IHD excess deaths were calculated both in the absence and presence of some acclimatization (i.e., that people are able to physiologically acclimatize to enhanced temperature levels in the future time periods by 0% and 50%, respectively. In addition to changes in heat wave frequency, we incorporated also changes in heat wave intensity and duration into the future mortality evaluations. The results indicate that by the end of the 21st century the annual number of IHD excess deaths in Germany attributable to heat waves is expected to rise by factor 2
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Framing and visual type: Effect on future Zika vaccine uptake intent
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jeanine P.D. Guidry
2018-04-01
Design and methods: In order to study the effects of Zika message framing (gain vs. loss and visual type (photo vs. infographic on future Zika vaccine uptake intent, a 2×2 between-subjects experiment was performed via an online survey in 2017 among 339 U.S. women of reproductive age (18-49 years. Participants were exposed to one of four messages, all resembling Instagram posts: gain-framed vs. loss-framed infographic, and gain-framed vs. loss-framed photo. These messages were followed by questions about Zika vaccine uptake intent as well as intermediate psychosocial variables that could lead to intent. Results: There was no interaction between framing and visual type (P=0.116, and there was no effect for framing (P=0.185 or visual type (P=0.724 on future Zika vaccine uptake intent, which is likely indicative of insufficient dosage of the intervention. However, when focusing on intermediate psychosocial constructs that are known to influence behavior and intent, gain-framed messages were more effective in increasing subjective norms (P=0.005 as related to a future Zika vaccine, as well as perceived benefits (P=0.016 and self-efficacy (P=0.032. Conclusions: Gain-framed messages seem to be more effective than loss-framed messages to increase several constructs that could, in turn, affect future Zika vaccine uptake intent. This is a novel finding since, traditionally, loss-framed messages are considered more beneficial in promoting vaccine-related health behaviors.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Meier, H E Markus; Andersson, Helén C; Arheimer, Berit; Donnelly, Chantal; Eilola, Kari; Höglund, Anders; Kuznetsov, Ivan; Blenckner, Thorsten; Gustafsson, Bo G; Müller-Karulis, Bärbel; Niiranen, Susa; Chubarenko, Boris; Hansson, Anders; Havenhand, Jonathan; MacKenzie, Brian R; Neumann, Thomas; Piwowarczyk, Joanna; Raudsepp, Urmas; Reckermann, Marcus; Ruoho-Airola, Tuija
2012-01-01
Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850–2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850–2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961–2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air- and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic ‘business-as-usual’ to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems. (letter)
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carpenter, C.P.; Marks, M.L.; Smiley, S.L.; Gallaher, D.M.; Williams, K.D.
2006-01-01
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used a project management approach to transition the Miamisburg Closure Project from cleanup by the Office of Environmental Management (EM) to post-closure operations by the Office of Legacy Management (LM). Two primary DOE orders were used to guide the site transition: DOE Order 430.1B, Real Property Asset Management, for assessment and disposition of real property assets and DOE Order 413.3, Program and Project Management for Acquisition of Capital Assets, for project closeout of environmental cleanup activities and project transition of post-closure activities. To effectively manage these multiple policy requirements, DOE chose to manage the Miamisburg Closure Project as a project under a cross-member transitional team using representatives from four principal organizations: DOE-LM, the LM contractor S.M. Stoller Corporation, DOE-EM, and the EM contractor CH2M Hill Mound Inc. The mission of LM is to manage the Department's post-transition responsibilities and long-term care of legacy liabilities and to ensure the future protection of human health and the environment for cleanup sites after the EM has completed its cleanup activities. (authors)
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One-year effects of Project EX: A smoking intervention pilot program with Spanish adolescents.
Espada, José P; Gonzálvez, María T; Orgilés, Mireia; Sussman, Steve
2017-07-01
Adolescent smoking is a major public health problem, which has led to the development of cessation programs such as Project EX. However, there is no evidence for the long-term efficacy of cessation among Spanish adolescents. This study provides a 1-year follow-up evaluation of the Project EX tobacco use cessation program among 211 smokers. The intent-to-treat 30-day smoking quit rate for the program group was 7.81 percent ( p = .04), whereas no smokers quit in the control group ( p = .02). The intervention had a significant influence on future smoking expectation, intention, motivation to quit, and overall level of 30-day smoking. Long-term outcomes of the Project EX clinic-based program are promising for adolescent smokers in Spain.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Suchithra Naish
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.
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SO-QT: Collaborative Tool to Project the Future Space Object Population
Stupl, Jan
2017-01-01
Earth orbit gets increasingly congested, a challenge to space operators, both in governments and industry. We present a web tool that provides: 1) data on todays and the historic space object environments, by aggregating object-specific tracking data; and 2) future trends through a collaboration platform to collect information on planed launches. The collaborative platform enables experts to pool and compare their data in order to generate future launch scenarios. The tool is intended to support decision makers and mission designers while they investigate future missions and scholars as they develop strategies for space traffic management.
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Advocating mindset for cooperative partnership for better future of construction industry
Omar, Datuk Wahid
2017-11-01
Construction industry players are known for their low acceptance on the changes. Hence, it is identified that the biggest challenge in the industry is changing the mindset. This paper highlights the importance of transformation in shaping for better future of the industry. Transformation favors innovation and progressive development in the industry and specifically in managing a project. Thus changes in mindset of players with an eye to the future and focus on what is coming are paramount in inculcating the transformation culture in construction eco-system. The key to the success of transformation is the collaborative and cooperative partnering which ensuring the performance of every stage of project delivery. The collaborative, cooperative and concerted effort of all parties involved in the project creates mutual understanding on mission and vision of project. Adopting healthy and harmonious project culture, implementing innovative procurement that emphasis on fair risk sharing should be a working culture. This cooperative partnership should be the future of the project undertaking in the construction industry.
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SELECTION OF EFFECTIVE MODELS OF PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION IN A CHANGING FINANCIAL SITUATION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Александр Иванович МЕНЕЙЛЮК
2015-06-01
Full Text Available The article describes the methods of selecting effective models of construction projects of residential buildings and recommendations for its use. The technique is based on the construction of the models in the program Microsoft Project and analysis using the program COMPEX. Methods can be used not only for building projects. It is especially effective in a variable financial situation.
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Project report about the motives of the future law project 'security and nuclear clearness'
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2003-11-01
This project aims to prevent the hazards in relation with nuclear activities for man and his environment, as well to reinforce information on risks associated to these activities and on measures taken to avoid them. (N.C.)
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A summary of lessons learned at the Shippingport Station Decommissioning Project (SSDP)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Crimi, F.P.; Mullee, G.R.
1987-10-01
This paper describes the lessons learned from a management perspective during decommissioning. The lessons learned are presented in a chronological sequence during the life of the project up to the present time. The careful analysis of the lessons learned and the implementation of corresponding actions have contributed toward improving the effectiveness of decommissioning as time progresses. The lessons learned should be helpful in planning future decommissioning projects
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Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rahmstorf, Stefan; Foster, Grant; Cazenave, Anny
2012-01-01
We analyse global temperature and sea-level data for the past few decades and compare them to projections published in the third and fourth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that global temperature continues to increase in good agreement with the best estimates of the IPCC, especially if we account for the effects of short-term variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, volcanic activity and solar variability. The rate of sea-level rise of the past few decades, on the other hand, is greater than projected by the IPCC models. This suggests that IPCC sea-level projections for the future may also be biased low. (letter)
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Exploring the three flavor effects with future superbeams using liquid argon detectors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Agarwalla, Sanjib Kumar; Prakash, Suprabh; Sankar, S. Uma
2014-01-01
Recent measurement of a moderately large value of θ 13 signifies an important breakthrough in establishing the standard three flavor oscillation picture of neutrinos. It has provided an opportunity to explore the sub-dominant three flavor effects in present and future long-baseline experiments. In this paper, we perform a comparative study of the physics reach of two future superbeam facilities, LBNE and LBNO in their first phases of run, to resolve the issues of neutrino mass hierarchy, octant of θ 23 , and leptonic CP violation. We also find that the sensitivity of these future facilities can be improved significantly by adding the projected data from T2K and NOνA. Stand-alone LBNO setup with a 10 kt detector has a mass hierarchy discovery reach of more than 7σ, for the lowest allowed value of sin 2 θ 23 (true) = 0.34. This result is valid for any choice of true δ CP and hierarchy. LBNE10, in combination with T2K and NOνA, can achieve 3σ hierarchy discrimination for any choice of δ CP , sin 2 θ 23 , and hierarchy. The same combination can provide a 3σ octant resolution for sin 2 θ 23 (true) ≤ 0.44 or for sin 2 θ 23 (true) ≥ 0.58 for all values of δ CP (true). LBNO can give similar results with 10 kt detector mass. In their first phases, both LBNE10 and LBNO with 20 kt detector can establish leptonic CP violation for around 50% values of true δ CP at 2σ confidence level. In case of LBNE10, CP coverage at 3σ can be enhanced from 3% to 43% by combining T2K and NOνA data, assuming sin 2 θ 23 (true) = 0.5. For LBNO setup, CP violation discovery at 3σ is possible for 46% values of true δ CP if we add the data from T2K and NOνA
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Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.
2012-08-01
Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, such as mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This paper addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to simulate spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century? (3) How to use standardized drought indices to represent theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-yr multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France. Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index, respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well simulated by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals, either retrospective or prospective. The perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events derived from these theoretical adaptation scenarios show much reduced changes, but they call for more realistic scenarios at both the catchment and national scale in order to accurately assess the combined effect of
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alexander, Lisa
2007-01-01
Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wu, M.; Wu, Y.; Wang, M; Energy Systems
2008-01-31
The Role of Biomass in America's Energy Future (RBAEF) is a multi-institution, multiple-sponsor research project. The primary focus of the project is to analyze and assess the potential of transportation fuels derived from cellulosic biomass in the years 2015 to 2030. For this project, researchers at Dartmouth College and Princeton University designed and simulated an advanced fermentation process to produce fuel ethanol/protein, a thermochemical process to produce Fischer-Tropsch diesel (FTD) and dimethyl ether (DME), and a combined heat and power plant to co-produce steam and electricity using the ASPEN Plus{trademark} model. With support from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) conducted, for the RBAEF project, a mobility chains or well-to-wheels (WTW) analysis using the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model developed at ANL. The mobility chains analysis was intended to estimate the energy consumption and emissions associated with the use of different production biofuels in light-duty vehicle technologies.
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Does goal relevant episodic future thinking amplify the effect on delay discounting?
O'Donnell, Sara; Oluyomi Daniel, Tinuke; Epstein, Leonard H
2017-05-01
Delay discounting (DD) is the preference for smaller immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards. Research shows episodic future thinking (EFT), or mentally simulating future experiences, reframes the choice between small immediate and larger delayed rewards, and can reduce DD. Only general EFT has been studied, whereby people reframe decisions in terms of non-goal related future events. Since future thinking is often goal-oriented and leads to greater activation of brain regions involved in prospection, goal-oriented EFT may be associated with greater reductions in DD than general goal-unrelated EFT. The present study (n=104, M age =22.25, SD=3.42; 50% Female) used a between-subjects 2×2 factorial design with type of episodic thinking (Goal, General) and temporal perspective (Episodic future versus recent thinking; EFT vs ERT) as between factors. Results showed a significant reduction in DD for EFT groups (p<0.001, Cohen's d effect size=0.89), and goal-EFT was more effective than general-EFT on reducing DD (p=0.03, d=0.64). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Virtual reality in the operating room of the future.
Müller, W; Grosskopf, S; Hildebrand, A; Malkewitz, R; Ziegler, R
1997-01-01
In cooperation with the Max-Delbrück-Centrum/Robert-Rössle-Klinik (MDC/RRK) in Berlin, the Fraunhofer Institute for Computer Graphics is currently designing and developing a scenario for the operating room of the future. The goal of this project is to integrate new analysis, visualization and interaction tools in order to optimize and refine tumor diagnostics and therapy in combination with laser technology and remote stereoscopic video transfer. Hence, a human 3-D reference model is reconstructed using CT, MR, and anatomical cryosection images from the National Library of Medicine's Visible Human Project. Applying segmentation algorithms and surface-polygonization methods a 3-D representation is obtained. In addition, a "fly-through" the virtual patient is realized using 3-D input devices (data glove, tracking system, 6-DOF mouse). In this way, the surgeon can experience really new perspectives of the human anatomy. Moreover, using a virtual cutting plane any cut of the CT volume can be interactively placed and visualized in realtime. In conclusion, this project delivers visions for the application of effective visualization and VR systems. Commonly known as Virtual Prototyping and applied by the automotive industry long ago, this project shows, that the use of VR techniques can also prototype an operating room. After evaluating design and functionality of the virtual operating room, MDC plans to build real ORs in the near future. The use of VR techniques provides a more natural interface for the surgeon in the OR (e.g., controlling interactions by voice input). Besides preoperative planning future work will focus on supporting the surgeon in performing surgical interventions. An optimal synthesis of real and synthetic data, and the inclusion of visual, aural, and tactile senses in virtual environments can meet these requirements. This Augmented Reality could represent the environment for the surgeons of tomorrow.
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Well-faring towards Uncertain Futures
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Frederiksen, Martin Demant; Pedersen, Susanne Højlund; Meinert, Lotte
2011-01-01
The article explores how societal contexts create different possibilities for faring well towards the future for young marginalized people. Based on a comparative project including ethnographies from Brazil, Uganda, Georgia and Denmark the authors discuss well-faring as a time-oriented process...... based on individual as well as societal conditions. The article argues that in order to understand well-faring it is important to analyse how visions and strategies for the future are shaped in relation to local circumstances. Whether it is possible to envision the future as hopeless or hopeful...
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Buildings of the Future Scoping Study: A Framework for Vision Development
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wang, Na [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Goins, John D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
2015-02-01
The Buildings of the Future Scoping Study, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Office, seeks to develop a vision for what U.S. mainstream commercial and residential buildings could become in 100 years. This effort is not intended to predict the future or develop a specific building design solution. Rather, it will explore future building attributes and offer possible pathways of future development. Whether we achieve a more sustainable built environment depends not just on technologies themselves, but on how effectively we envision the future and integrate these technologies in a balanced way that generates economic, social, and environmental value. A clear, compelling vision of future buildings will attract the right strategies, inspire innovation, and motivate action. This project will create a cross-disciplinary forum of thought leaders to share their views. The collective views will be integrated into a future building vision and published in September 2015. This report presents a research framework for the vision development effort based on a literature survey and gap analysis. This document has four objectives. First, it defines the project scope. Next, it identifies gaps in the existing visions and goals for buildings and discusses the possible reasons why some visions did not work out as hoped. Third, it proposes a framework to address those gaps in the vision development. Finally, it presents a plan for a series of panel discussions and interviews to explore a vision that mitigates problems with past building paradigms while addressing key areas that will affect buildings going forward.
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The Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project: Experiences and future plans
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Martin, D.E.; Lego, A.J.; Clifford, A.E.
1995-12-31
Fully operational in June of 1994, the Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project was started to gain insight into the costs and benefits of providing ISDN service to the homes of Fermilab researchers. Fourteen users were chosen from throughout Fermilab, but the number of Fermilab-employed spouses pushed the total user count to 20. Each home was equipped with a basic rate ISDN (BRI) line, a BRI Ethernet half-bridge, and an NT-1. An inter-departmental team coordinated the project. Usage at each home was tracked and frequent surveys were attempted. Lessons learned include: working with Ameritech can be difficult; careful monitoring is essential; and configuration of home computing equipment is very time consuming. Plans include moving entirely to primary rate ISDN hubs, support for different home ISDN equipment and better usage and performance tracking.
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The Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project: Experiences and future plans
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Martin, D.E.; Lego, A.J.; Clifford, A.E.
1995-01-01
Fully operational in June of 1994, the Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project was started to gain insight into the costs and benefits of providing ISDN service to the homes of Fermilab researchers. Fourteen users were chosen from throughout Fermilab, but the number of Fermilab-employed spouses pushed the total user count to 20. Each home was equipped with a basic rate ISDN (BRI) line, a BRI Ethernet half-bridge, and an NT-1. An inter-departmental team coordinated the project. Usage at each home was tracked and frequent surveys were attempted. Lessons learned include: working with Ameritech can be difficult; careful monitoring is essential; and configuration of home computing equipment is very time consuming. Plans include moving entirely to primary rate ISDN hubs, support for different home ISDN equipment and better usage and performance tracking