WorldWideScience

Sample records for project future effects

  1. Projecting future sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

    2006-01-01

    California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future

  2. Effects of Episodic Future Thinking and Self-Projection on Children's Prospective Memory Performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anett Kretschmer-Trendowicz

    Full Text Available The present study is the first to investigate the benefits of episodic future thinking (EFT at encoding on prospective memory (PM in preschool (age: M = 66.34 months, SD = 3.28 and primary school children (age: M = 88.36 months, SD = 3.12. A second aim was to examine if self-projection influences the possible effects of EFT instructions. PM was assessed using a standard PM paradigm in children with a picture-naming task as the ongoing activity in which the PM task was embedded. Further, two first- and two second-order ToM tasks were administered as indicator of children's self-projection abilities. Forty-one preschoolers and 39 school-aged children were recruited. Half of the participants in each age group were instructed to use EFT as a strategy to encode the PM task, while the others received standard PM instructions. Results revealed a significant age effect, with school-aged children significantly outperforming preschoolers and a significant effect of encoding condition with overall better performance when receiving EFT instructions compared to the standard encoding condition. Even though the interaction between age group and encoding condition was not significant, planned comparisons revealed first evidence that compared to the younger age group, older children's PM benefitted more from EFT instructions during intention encoding. Moreover, results showed that although self-projection had a significant impact on PM performance, it did not influence the effects of EFT instructions. Overall, results indicate that children can use EFT encoding strategies to improve their PM performance once EFT abilities are sufficiently developed. Further, they provide first evidence that in addition to executive functions, which have already been shown to influence the development of PM across childhood, self-projection seems to be another key mechanism underlying this development.

  3. Summaries and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egelstaff, P.A.

    1989-01-01

    In this paper the author gives a brief summary of this meeting. He discusses the status at the current neutron sources and future sources. The current problems with targets, moderators, performance of storage rings and shields are briefly mentioned. Finally, he speculates on the prospects of neutron sources for the future and gives his version of the ultimate source

  4. Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Preston, Samuel H.; Stokes, Andrew; Mehta, Neil K.; Cao, Bochen

    2013-01-01

    We estimate the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010?2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these estimates. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts are age 25. To these distributions, we apply death rates by current and ...

  5. FutureGen Project Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cabe, Jim; Elliott, Mike

    2010-09-30

    This report summarizes the comprehensive siting, permitting, engineering, design, and costing activities completed by the FutureGen Industrial Alliance, the Department of Energy, and associated supporting subcontractors to develop a first of a kind near zero emissions integrated gasification combined cycle power plant and carbon capture and storage project (IGCC-CCS). With the goal to design, build, and reliably operate the first IGCC-CCS facility, FutureGen would have been the lowest emitting pulverized coal power plant in the world, while providing a timely and relevant basis for coal combustion power plants deploying carbon capture in the future. The content of this report summarizes key findings and results of applicable project evaluations; modeling, design, and engineering assessments; cost estimate reports; and schedule and risk mitigation from initiation of the FutureGen project through final flow sheet analyses including capital and operating reports completed under DOE award DE-FE0000587. This project report necessarily builds upon previously completed siting, design, and development work executed under DOE award DE-FC26- 06NT4207 which included the siting process; environmental permitting, compliance, and mitigation under the National Environmental Policy Act; and development of conceptual and design basis documentation for the FutureGen plant. For completeness, the report includes as attachments the siting and design basis documents, as well as the source documentation for the following: • Site evaluation and selection process and environmental characterization • Underground Injection Control (UIC) Permit Application including well design and subsurface modeling • FutureGen IGCC-CCS Design Basis Document • Process evaluations and technology selection via Illinois Clean Coal Review Board Technical Report • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance for slurry-fed gasifier configuration • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance

  6. Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

    2018-01-01

    This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to

  7. Effects of Projected Future Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge and Storage for Two Coastal Aquifers in Guanacaste Province, Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolb, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is expected to pose a significant threat to water resources in the future. Guanacaste Province, located in northwestern Costa Rica, has a unique climate that is influenced by the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea, as well as the Central Cordillera mountain range. Although the region experiences a marked rainy season between May and November, the hot, dry summers often stress water resources. Climate change projections suggest increased temperatures and reduced precipitation for the region, which will further stress water supplies. This study focuses on the effects of climate change on groundwater resources for two coastal aquifers, Potrero and Brasilito. The UZF model package coupled with the finite difference groundwater flow model MODFLOW were used to evaluate the effect of climate change on groundwater recharge and storage. A potential evapotranspiration model was used to estimate groundwater infiltration rates used in the MODFLOW model. Climate change projections for temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to develop climate scenarios, which were compared to historical data. Preliminary results indicate that climate change could reduce future recharge, especially during the dry season. Additionally, the coastal aquifers are at increased risk of reduced storage and increased salinization due to the reductions in groundwater recharge and sea level rise. Climate change could also affect groundwater quality in the region, disrupting the ecosystem and impairing a primary source of drinking water.

  8. The Southern Forest Futures Project: technical report

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; John G. Greis

    2013-01-01

    Please visit the Southern Forest Futures Project website for more information.The Southern Forest Futures Project provides a science-based “futuring” analysis of the forests of the 13 States of the Southeastern United States. With findings...

  9. Projection of future climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Olivier; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Vial, Jessica; Brun, Eric; Cattiaux, Julien; Chauvin, Fabrice; Salas y Melia, David; Voldoire, Aurore; Bopp, Laurent; Braconnot, Pascale; Ciais, Philippe; Yiou, Pascal; Guilyardi, Eric; Mignot, Juliette; Guivarch, Celine

    2015-01-01

    Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

  10. The Southern Forest Futures Project: summary report

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; John G. Greis

    2012-01-01

    The Southern Forest Futures Project provides a science-based “futuring” analysis of the forests of the 13 States of the Southeastern United States. With findings organized in a set of scenarios and using a combination of computer models and science synthesis, the authors of the Southern Forest Futures Project examine a variety of possible futures that could shape...

  11. Le futur du project LHC

    CERN Multimedia

    Heyoka

    2007-01-01

    Since 2004, and specitally during the long study in 2005, we used the results of the LHC Project to evaluate differents parameters of the machiene (LHC). The final choices for the design of the machine are based partly on these results. (1,5 page)

  12. Projecting future drug expenditures--2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, James M; Shah, Nilay D; Vermeulen, Lee C; Doloresco, Fred; Martin, Patrick K; Blake, Sharon; Matusiak, Linda; Hunkler, Robert J; Schumock, Glen T

    2009-02-01

    Drug expenditure trends in 2007 and 2008, projected drug expenditures for 2009, and factors likely to influence drug expenditures are discussed. Various factors are likely to influence drug expenditures in 2009, including drugs in development, the diffusion of new drugs, drug safety concerns, generic drugs, Medicare Part D, and changes in the drug supply chain. The increasing availability of important generic drugs and drug safety concerns continue to moderate growth in drug expenditures. The drug supply chain remains dynamic and may influence drug expenditures, particularly in specialized therapeutic areas. Initial data suggest that the Medicare Part D benefit has influenced drug expenditures, but the ultimate impact of the benefit on drug expenditures remains unclear. From 2006 to 2007, total U.S. drug expenditures increased by 4.0%, with total spending rising from $276 billion to $287 billion. Drug expenditures in clinics continue to grow more rapidly than in other settings, with a 9.9% increase from 2006 to 2007. Hospital drug expenditures increased at a moderate rate of only 1.6% from 2006 to 2007; through the first nine months of 2008, hospital drug expenditures increased by only 2.8% compared with the same period in 2007. In 2009, we project a 0-2% increase in drug expenditures in outpatient settings, a 1-3% increase in expenditures for clinic-administered drugs, and a 1-3% increase in hospital drug expenditures.

  13. Glomed-Land: a research project to study the effect of global change in contrasted mediterranean landscapes and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Sinoga, José D.; Hueso-González, Paloma; León-Gross, Teodoro; Molina, Julián; Remond, Ricardo; Martínez-Murillo, Juan F.

    2017-04-01

    The Global Change is referred to the occurrence of great environmental changes associated to climatic fluctuations and human activity as wel (Vitousek et al., 1997; Steffen et al., 2004; Dearing et al., 2006). García-Ruiz et al. (2015) indicated that the relief varies very slowly in time while the changes in vegetation, overland flow generation and erosion occurred very rapidly and conditioned by their interactions and the climate variability as well. The GLOMED-LAND Project has its bases and scientific justification on the combination of the experience of the members of the research team, from one side, in the analysis of the dynamics and eco-geomorphological and climatic processes in Mediterranean environments of southern Spain, in the context of current Global change, and from another, in the study, development and application of new tools for simulation and modelling of future scenarios, and finally, in the analysis of the impact that society exercises the broadcast media related to the problem derived from the awareness and adaptation to Global change. Climate change (CC), directly affects the elements that compose the landscape. Both in the analysis of future climate scenarios raised by the IPCC (2013), such as the regionalisation carried out by AEMET, the Mediterranean region and, especially, the South of Spain, - with its defined longitudinal pluviometric gradient - configured as one of the areas of greatest uncertainty, reflected in a higher concentration of temporal rainfall, and even a reduction in the rainfall. Faced with this situation, the CC can modify the current landscape setting, with all the environmental impacts that this would entail for the terrestrial ecosystems and the systemic services rendered to the society. The combination of different work scales allows the analysis of the dynamics of the landscape and the consequence of its modifications on, hydro-geomorphological processes, closely related to degradation processes that can affect the

  14. Disentangling the effects of land-use change, climate and CO2 on projected future European habitat types

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lehsten, V; Sykes, M.T.; Scott, A.V.; Tzanopoulis, A.; Kallimanis, A.; Verburg, P.H.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Potts, S.G.; Vogiatzakis, I.

    2015-01-01

    Aim: To project the potential European distribution of seven broad habitat categories (needle-leaved, broad-leaved, mixed and mediterranean forest, urban, grassland and cropland) in order to assess effects of land use, climate change and increase in CO2 on predicted habitat changes up to

  15. Costing Future Complex and Novel Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) is reported. The work involves pioneering data collection, analysis, and tool development to support... philosophy of the work and future prospects for its wider application. Summary The United Kingdom National Audit Office Major Projects Report 2014 states...the work will be in tackling variety in the data collected, one of the “3 Vs ” of Big Data. The outline programme is shown in Figure 2. Programme

  16. Projected climate change futures for Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tadross, M

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa. In these experiments, a variable-resolution atmospheric global circulation model, CCAM, was applied as a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate both present-day and future climate... climate projection Observed climate RCM Climate forcing Climate simulation Statistical downscaling Dynamical downscaling 22 | Second Edition There are four pathways – RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. RCP 2.6 describes a scenario of very low...

  17. Current status of RCA projects and strategies for future implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kyoung Pyo; Lee, Jeong Kong

    1998-12-01

    This report is intended to provide basic overall information about ways to promote technical cooperation within the framework of RCA to accelerate and coordinate cooperative activities in nuclear science and technology in Asia and the Pacific region through a thorough review on the current status and through suggesting future implementation strategies. The contents of this report include an overall introduction of RCA, guidelines and operating rules for RCA programmes, current status and future plans for RCA projects as well as the RCA vision for the next 25 years. By reviewing the current status and future implementation strategies for RCA projects, it will help to set up a national nuclear policy aimed at seeking maximum benefits from participation in RCA projects and to implement programmes for nuclear cooperation with Asian-Pacific countries. It is expected that as a lead country for the energy sector, which is one of five thematic areas for the year 1999 - 2000 cycle programmes, Korea will continue to make significant contributions towards the implementation of RCA programmes in the future. With this report, we plan to keep up with future developments as well as implement an effective cooperation with the countries in the region so that the opinion of Korea, one of the nuclear advanced countries in the region, can be fully reflected in the establishment of future plans for RCA programmes. (author). 3 refs., 5 tabs., 1 fig

  18. Projecting the range of potential future climate change as an aid in the assessment of the effectiveness of the Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petersen, K.L.

    1993-10-01

    The Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program was organized to develop an in-place disposal capability for low-level nuclear waste for the US Department of Energy at the Hanford Site in south-eastern Washington. Layered earthen and engineered barriers are being developed by Westinghouse Hanford Company and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory that will function in what is presently a semiarid environment (annual precipitation 150 mm) for at least 1,000 yr by limiting the infiltration of water through the waste. The Long-Term Climate Change Task is one of several key barrier tasks. Based on the recommendation of a panel of internationally recognized climate and modeling experts, climatic data for this task is being acquired in a step-wise and multi-disciplinary manner. The specific research strategy includes literature review and specialized studies to obtain pollen-derived climatic reconstruction, documented historic weather patterns, and Global Circulation Model output of potential future climate changes related to both the greenhouse effect and the cycling into the next ice age. The specific goals of the task are to: (1) obtain defensible probabilistic projections of the long-term climate variability in the Hanford Site region at many different time scales into the future, (2) develop several test case climate scenarios that bracket the range of potential future climate, and (3) use the climate scenarios both to test and to model protective barrier performance.

  19. Maturity effects in energy futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serletis, Apostolos (Calgary Univ., AB (CA). Dept. of Economics)

    1992-04-01

    This paper examines the effects of maturity on future price volatility and trading volume for 129 energy futures contracts recently traded in the NYMEX. The results provide support for the maturity effect hypothesis, that is, energy futures prices to become more volatile and trading volume increases as futures contracts approach maturity. (author).

  20. Future challenges for woody biomass projections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schadauer, K.; Barreiro, Susana; Schelhaas, M.; McRoberts, Ronald E.

    2017-01-01

    Many drivers affect woody biomass projections including forest available for wood supply, market behavior, forest ownership, distributions by age and yield classes, forest typologies resulting from different edaphic, climatic conditions, and last but not least, how these factors are incorporated

  1. Seismic studies for Fermilab future collider projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauh, J.; Shiltsev, V.

    1997-11-01

    Ground motion can cause significant beam emittance growth and orbit oscillations in large hadron colliders due to a vibration of numerous focusing magnets. Larger accelerator ring circumference leads to smaller revolution frequency and, e.g. for the Fermilab Very Large Hadron Collider(VLHC) 50-150 Hz vibrations are of particular interest as they are resonant with the beam betatron frequency. Seismic measurements at an existing large accelerator under operation can help to estimate the vibrations generated by the technical systems in future machines. Comparison of noisy and quiet microseismic conditions might be useful for proper choice of technical solutions for future colliders. This article presents results of wide-band seismic measurements at the Fermilab site, namely, in the tunnel of the Tevatron and on the surface nearby, and in two deep tunnels in the Illinois dolomite which is though to be a possible geological environment of the future accelerators

  2. Space Projects: Improvements Needed in Selecting Future Projects for Private Financing

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-01-01

    The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and NASA jointly selected seven projects for commercialization to reduce NASA's fiscal year 1990 budget request and to help achieve the goal of increasing private sector involvement in space. However, the efforts to privately finance these seven projects did not increase the commercial sector's involvement in space to the extent desired. The General Accounting Office (GAO) determined that the projects selected were not a fair test of the potential of increasing commercial investment in space at an acceptable cost to the government, primarily because the projects were not properly screened. That is, neither their suitability for commercialization nor the economic consequences of seeking private financing for them were adequately evaluated before selection. Evaluations and market tests done after selection showed that most of the projects were not viable candidates for private financing. GAO concluded that projects should not be removed from NASA's budget for commercial development until after careful screening has been done to determine whether adequate commercial demand exists, development risks are commercially acceptable and private financing is found or judged to be highly likely, and the cost effectiveness of such a decision is acceptable. Premature removal of projects from NASA's budget ultimately can cause project delays and increased costs when unsuccessful commercialization candidates must be returned to the budget. NASA also needs to ensure appropriate comparisons of government and private financing options for future commercialization projects.

  3. The Cernavoda project - past and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glodeanu, F.; Campureanu, T.; Chirica, T.; Popescu, D.

    1995-01-01

    The history of the Cernavoda nuclear power station in Romania is traced. It was conceived in 1977 as five unit CANDU-6 station and agreements were concluded on engineering, procurement and financial assistance with Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd (AECL) and Ansaldo of Italy. Delays in construction were created from the first, however, by efforts to manufacture as many components as possible in Romania, unfamiliarity with nuclear project management and the disadvantages of a highly centralised economy. Political changes since December 1989 have led to a new approach to project implementation. The Romanian Electricity Authority (RENEL), signed a new contract with AECL and Ansaldo in August 1991 to perform the project management for the completion of Cernavoda 1. The project has progressed very well and by the beginning of 1995 more than 90% of the plant systems were ready for commissioning and a full operating shift was in place. As a second phase of the nuclear power programme RENEL plans to complete Cernavoda 2, the construction of which was suspended at 30% completion. The three other units will be preserved in their present preliminary stage of construction up to 2000 while finance is sought for their completion. Nuclear power is seen as an environmentally clean means of meeting Romania's growing energy demand as the economy develops. (UK)

  4. Future development of project management competences.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silvius, A.J.G.; Batenburg, R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a study into the expected development of the competences of the project manager in the year 2027. The study was performed amongst the members of IPMA-Netherlands during the summer of 2007. In the study the 46 competences of the International Competence Baseline 3 (ICB 3) were

  5. Interhemispheric Temperature Asymmetry in Historical Observations and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, A. R.; Hwang, Y.; Chiang, J. C.; Frierson, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    The surface temperature contrast between the northern and southern hemispheres -- the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry (ITA) -- is an emerging indicator of global climate change, especially relevant to the latitude of the tropical rain bands. We investigate the ITA over historical observations and in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations and future projections. We find that the uneven spatial impacts of greenhouse gas forcing cause amplified warming in the Arctic and northern landmasses, resulting in an increase of the ITA. However, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, which are disproportionately emitted in the northern hemisphere, masked these effects on the ITA until around 1980. The implementation of air pollution regulations in North America and Europe combined with increased global emissions of greenhouse gases have resulted in a significant positive ITA trend since 1980. The CMIP5 historical multimodel ensembles simulate this positive ITA trend, though not its full magnitude. We explore how natural variability may account for some of the differences between the simulated and observed ITA. Future simulations project a substantial increase of the ITA over the twenty-first century, well outside its twentieth-century variability. This is largely in response to continued greenhouse gas emissions, though anthropogenic aerosol emissions are also important in some scenarios. We discuss the potential implications of this northern warming in causing a northward shift in tropical rainfall.

  6. Project Management 2027; The Future of Project Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drs. A.J.G. Silvius

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a study into the expected development of the competences op the project manager in the year 2027. The study was performed amongst the members of IPMA-Netherlands during the summer of 2007. In the study the 46 competences of the International Competence Baseline 3 (ICB 3) were

  7. The Future of Project Management in Technical Communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kampf, Constance

    2006-01-01

    Project Management increasing shapes workplace communication, especially when technical commuicators participate in cross-disciplinary development teams. This paper looks at the future of project management in technical communication and argues for a communicative approach to project management...... for technical communication students. The Project Management course in the International Bachelor Program of Marketing and Management Communication at the Aarhus School of Business is described, and the implications fortechnical communication curricula are discussed....

  8. Nuclear data. Situation and future projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bioux, P.

    1995-01-01

    Nuclear power provides the major part of the electricity generation in France, using a system of highly developed Pressurized Water Reactors. Electricite de France, which is responsible for the exploitation of this system, is concerned to ensure the continuity of the expertise and facilities which provide relevant basic scientific information contributing to the efficient exploitation of the system and, in particular, the continuity of the means for providing relevant nuclear data. The nuclear data requirements for the exploitation of the existing nuclear power system have been largely met. However, there remain some needs, in particular in the field of reactor neutronics. Furthermore if one considers the future (for example, the next 10 years) it is not certain that will be possible to meet the needs which are expected to arise. The review, commissioned on behalf of EDF, about the current status and future expectations for work in this field, has shown certain tendencies in the international situation. In particular one notes a general reduction in the effort both in Western Europe and the United States. This negative tendency can perhaps be explained by the almost general reduction world-wide in new nuclear power developments. However, unresolved problems remain, such as the development of methods for reducing the stocks of plutonium and the incineration and storage of a nuclear waste of long duration. In addition improvements in the accuracy of nuclear data could result in non-negligible economic benefits in the exploitation of the existing nuclear facilities. For these very important reasons it is desirable to reverse the present trend. (author). 2 annexes

  9. UAS Integration in the NAS Project and Future Autonomy Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Charles W.

    2014-01-01

    This presentation highlights NASA use of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and related technologies for civil purposes. This briefing will give more insight into the UAS projects progress and future goals.

  10. Future perspectives - proposal for Oxford Physiome Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oku, Yoshitaka

    2010-01-01

    The Physiome Project is an effort to understand living creatures using "analysis by synthesis" strategy, i.e., by reproducing their behaviors. In order to achieve its goal, sharing developed models between different computer languages and application programs to incorporate into integrated models is critical. To date, several XML-based markup languages has been developed for this purpose. However, source codes written with XML-based languages are very difficult to read and edit using text editors. An alternative way is to use an object-oriented meta-language, which can be translated to different computer languages and transplanted to different application programs. Object-oriented languages are suitable for describing structural organization by hierarchical classes and taking advantage of statistical properties to reduce the number of parameter while keeping the complexity of behaviors. Using object-oriented languages to describe each element and posting it to a public domain should be the next step to build up integrated models of the respiratory control system.

  11. Energy futures project : backgrounder for consultation sessions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhargava, A.

    2006-05-01

    The National Energy Board periodically publishes a long-term energy and demand report as part of an ongoing monitoring program. The next report is planned for release in 2007. This background document provided background information to ensure that consultation participants have a common understanding of key issues to be addressed during the cross-country consultations that have been planned before the release of the final version of the report. An outline of the proposed analytical approach was presented, as well as details of major assumptions and scenario storylines. Scenario themes included: economic, energy and environmental sustainability; a security-focused world shaped by war and civil strife; and strong global economic growth fueled by the rapid growth of the Chinese and Indian economies. A methodology overview was provided as well as a reference case. Issues related to energy supply included oil; natural gas liquids; natural gas; and electricity. Issues related to energy demand included the residential sector; the commercial sector; the industrial sector; and the transportation sector. Historical trends and forecasts were outlined using the macroeconomic variable of interest. Supply, demand, and supporting infrastructure across all energy forms within a North American and global context were considered. The impact of environmental management strategies were reviewed, as well as the role of the government in shaping policies. It was concluded that the purpose of the final report is to serve as a standard of references for parties interested in Canadian energy issues and trends as well as to inform decision makers of key risks and uncertainties facing the energy future.9 tabs., 1 fig

  12. Ensuring effective project management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, J.N.

    1980-01-01

    A brief description is given of the organisation methods employed by the Bechtel Power Corporation, in their contract with Mississippi Power and Light Company for the design, construction and procurement activities for the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station. The aim is to ensure effective management, and good communications at all stages of construction, between the project team and the client. (U.K.)

  13. A review of the possible future HEP Accelerator Projects

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2010-01-01

    The review, as already invited for presentation at the recent International Conference on High Energy Physics (ICHEP2010), covers all accelerator projects presently envisaged for HEP in the near and mid-term future. After a brief description of the major motivation, issues and necessary R&D of each project, it specially emphasizes the synergies between the different projects and their R&D issues, pointing out their complementarities and the efficient collaborative approach to address them. It finally summarizes the relative schedule of the various projects in their different phases, pointing out their global interdependence.

  14. Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable

  15. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Bernardoni

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

  16. Fostering Radical Collaboration: The OCUL Collaborative Futures Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anika Ervin-Ward

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper was first given as a poster presentation at the Ontario Library Association Super Conference in 2016. Building on decades of successful cooperative work, the Ontario Council of University Libraries (OCUL Collaborative Futures project aims to select and implement a shared next-generation library services platform (LSP, to manage and preserve print resources in a sustainable system, and to effectively and efficiently use a shared system for the management of electronic and print resources. Phase One of this project was completed in Summer 2015. This is its story. Cet article a été présenté pour la première fois comme une présentation d’affiches à la Super Conference de l’Association des bibliothèques de l’Ontario en 2016. Basant sur des décennies de collaboration réussie, le projet Collaborative Futures du Conseil des bibliothèques universitaires de l’Ontario vise à sélectionner et à mettre en oeuvre une plate-forme des services de bibliothèque de dernière génération, à gérer et à préserver des ressources imprimées dans un système viable, et à utiliser efficacement un système partagé pour la gestion des ressources imprimées et numériques. La première phase de ce projet a été complétée pendant l’été 2015. Ceci est son histoire.

  17. Software Support for the Classical, Contemporary and Future Project Management

    OpenAIRE

    Jakov Crnkovic; Peter Ross; Sanjay Desai

    2006-01-01

    The volume and complexity of Project Management (PM) raises many questions for managers. What exactly are we managing? People? Performance? Efficiency? Effectiveness? Cost? Time? At what levels do projects become challenging and worthy of significant management attention? Can some projects be left on auto-pilot? Must others be managed more aggressively? What metrics are useful in Project Management? How can they be integrated with normal performance metrics in the organization? How can metric...

  18. Projected future runoff of the Breede River under climate change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Breede River is the largest river in the Western Cape Province of South Africa, and as such, is a key resource for a variety of activities within the region. It is this significance of the river that prompted a study into the impact of climate change on future runoff in the river and hence, the potential impacts a projected change ...

  19. Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limanond, Thirayoot; Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj; Srikaew, Artit

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: → Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. → The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. → The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

  20. The sustainable project management: A review and future possibilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.K. Chawla

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Sustainability in project operations such as financial, social and environmental sustainability is one of the most prominent issues of the present times to address. The increased focus on sus-tainable business operations has changed the viewpoint of researchers and corporate community towards the project management. Today sustainability in business operations along with sustain-ability of natural and environmental resources are of paramount significance which has further caused a huge impact on conception, planning, scheduling and execution of the project manage-ment activities. In this paper, a literature review between 1987 and 2018 on different issues af-fecting the sustainability in project management is carried out. The present study also identifies and discusses the future possibilities to apply computational procedures in order to estimate and optimize the sustainability issues in the management of projects, for example the computational evolutionary algorithms can be applied to formulate the multi-objective decision-making problem after considering critical factors of sustainability in the projects and then yielding optimized solu-tions for the formulated problem to achieve sustainability in the projects. A new integrated framework with the inclusion of feedback function for assessment of each decision and actions taken towards the sustainability of the projects is also identified and presented.

  1. Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Limanond, Thirayoot, E-mail: tlimanond@yahoo.co [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Srikaew, Artit [School of Electrical Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand)

    2011-05-15

    The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: {yields} Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. {yields} The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. {yields} The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

  2. Quantifying the effects of oil shocks on long-term public debt: A review of empirical data and a scenario analysis of future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Jillian Taylor

    Various authors have shown that each oil shock in the past 40 years has had statistically significant impacts on subsequent macroeconomic activity in the United States. Through these economic effects, oil shocks affect Federal revenues and expenditures and hence public debt. Published Federal budget scenarios do not currently reflect these impacts of oil shocks. I synthesize, in this paper, literature quantifying the impact of oil price increases on GDP growth and use that information to modify current long-term Federal budget models to present scenarios of how oil shocks are likely to affect long-term Federal debt. I argue that modeling the impact of oil price increases on long-term public debt could inform public policies, particularly those relating to Federal investments in energy conservation. Key Words: crude oil, oil shock, oil price spike, oil shock, Federal debt, debt projections, Congressional Budget Office

  3. Medial Temporal Lobe Contributions to Episodic Future Thinking: Scene Construction or Future Projection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palombo, D J; Hayes, S M; Peterson, K M; Keane, M M; Verfaellie, M

    2018-02-01

    Previous research has shown that the medial temporal lobes (MTL) are more strongly engaged when individuals think about the future than about the present, leading to the suggestion that future projection drives MTL engagement. However, future thinking tasks often involve scene processing, leaving open the alternative possibility that scene-construction demands, rather than future projection, are responsible for the MTL differences observed in prior work. This study explores this alternative account. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we directly contrasted MTL activity in 1) high scene-construction and low scene-construction imagination conditions matched in future thinking demands and 2) future-oriented and present-oriented imagination conditions matched in scene-construction demands. Consistent with the alternative account, the MTL was more active for the high versus low scene-construction condition. By contrast, MTL differences were not observed when comparing the future versus present conditions. Moreover, the magnitude of MTL activation was associated with the extent to which participants imagined a scene but was not associated with the extent to which participants thought about the future. These findings help disambiguate which component processes of imagination specifically involve the MTL. Published by Oxford University Press 2016.

  4. JPL Project Information Management: A Continuum Back to the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiz, Julie M.

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the practices and architecture that support information management at JPL. This practice has allowed concurrent use and reuse of information by primary and secondary users. The use of this practice is illustrated in the evolution of the Mars Rovers from the Mars Pathfinder to the development of the Mars Science Laboratory. The recognition of the importance of information management during all phases of a project life cycle has resulted in the design of an information system that includes metadata, has reduced the risk of information loss through the use of an in-process appraisal, shaping of project's appreciation for capturing and managing the information on one project for re-use by future projects as a natural outgrowth of the process. This process has also assisted in connection of geographically disbursed partners into a team through sharing information, common tools and collaboration.

  5. Software Support for the Classical, Contemporary and Future Project Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakov Crnkovic

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The volume and complexity of Project Management (PM raises many questions for managers. What exactly are we managing? People? Performance? Efficiency? Effectiveness? Cost? Time? At what levels do projects become challenging and worthy of significant management attention? Can some projects be left on auto-pilot? Must others be managed more aggressively? What metrics are useful in Project Management? How can they be integrated with normal performance metrics in the organization? How can metrics be built into assessment programs that work? How can projects be monitored, re-planned to stay within the original budget and schedule deadlines? How good is the PM software support? Do we really need PM software packages or it should be the integral part of the company's information system (IS? Where is the knowledge about company's previous projects and performance? Are we able to establish company or even industry wide standards for project management? Can we (or should we move from the PMBOK® guidelines and use other approaches? We discussing important questions in PM: software products, responsibilities for concurrently executing several projects (multi-projects with multi objectives and multiple deadlines, introducing a need for initiation, design, execution, and control using a virtual project management and application of the organizational project maturity model.

  6. Leverage effect in energy futures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištoufek, Ladislav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 45, č. 1 (2014), s. 1-9 ISSN 0140-9883 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GP14-11402P Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/0948 Program:GA Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : energy commodities * leverage effect * volatility * long-term memory Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.708, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/kristoufek-0433531.pdf

  7. Are automatic systems the future of motorcycle safety? A novel methodology to prioritize potential safety solutions based on their projected effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil, Gustavo; Savino, Giovanni; Piantini, Simone; Baldanzini, Niccolò; Happee, Riender; Pierini, Marco

    2017-11-17

    Motorcycle riders are involved in significantly more crashes per kilometer driven than passenger car drivers. Nonetheless, the development and implementation of motorcycle safety systems lags far behind that of passenger cars. This research addresses the identification of the most effective motorcycle safety solutions in the context of different countries. A knowledge-based system of motorcycle safety (KBMS) was developed to assess the potential for various safety solutions to mitigate or avoid motorcycle crashes. First, a set of 26 common crash scenarios was identified from the analysis of multiple crash databases. Second, the relative effectiveness of 10 safety solutions was assessed for the 26 crash scenarios by a panel of experts. Third, relevant information about crashes was used to weigh the importance of each crash scenario in the region studied. The KBMS method was applied with an Italian database, with a total of more than 1 million motorcycle crashes in the period 2000-2012. When applied to the Italian context, the KBMS suggested that automatic systems designed to compensate for riders' or drivers' errors of commission or omission are the potentially most effective safety solution. The KBMS method showed an effective way to compare the potential of various safety solutions, through a scored list with the expected effectiveness of each safety solution for the region to which the crash data belong. A comparison of our results with a previous study that attempted a systematic prioritization of safety systems for motorcycles (PISa project) showed an encouraging agreement. Current results revealed that automatic systems have the greatest potential to improve motorcycle safety. Accumulating and encoding expertise in crash analysis from a range of disciplines into a scalable and reusable analytical tool, as proposed with the use of KBMS, has the potential to guide research and development of effective safety systems. As the expert assessment of the crash

  8. Physics Projects for a Future CERN-LNGS Neutrino Programme

    OpenAIRE

    Picchi, P.; Pietropaolo, F.

    1998-01-01

    We present an overview of the future projects concerning the neutrino oscillation physics in Europe. Recently a joint CERN-LNGS scientific committee has reviewed several proposals both for the study of atmospheric neutrinos and for long (LBL) and short baseline (SBL) neutrino oscillation experiments. The committee has indicated the priority that the European high energy physics community should follows in the field of neutrino physics, namely a new massive, atmospheric neutrino detector and a...

  9. Projections on the future of the natural uranium industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishido, Akio

    1995-01-01

    This discussion looks at the future of the uranium industry and considers what type of procurement policy should be adopted. Viewing the future as an extension of the present, it is possible that supplies of natural uranium will begin to run short around 2015. However, natural uranium will have more resources available than petroleum. If rising uranium prices reinvigorate exploration and lead to the discovery of new uranium deposits, future shortages will be unlikely. Nonetheless, with structural changes expected in the world economy, the nature of natural uranium transactions will no doubt change, thereby increasing the present element of uncertainty that much more. At the same time, the oligopolistic situation created by today's major producers will intensify. Based on these projections, the author has reassessed Japan's past procurement policy of government exploration/development support combined with private-sector uranium purchasing and finds this shared risk approach to be the best. (author)

  10. Self-defining future projections: exploring the identity function of thinking about the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Lardi, Claudia; Van der Linden, Martial

    2012-01-01

    The act of projecting oneself into meaningful future events may significantly contribute to a person's sense of self and identity. Yet if the role of memories, in particular self-defining memories (SDMs), in grounding the self is now well established, the identity function of anticipated future events has received comparatively little attention. This article introduces the construct of self-defining future projection (SDFP) to address this issue. Two studies show that people can readily identify significant future events that they frequently think about and that convey core information about who they are as individuals. Furthermore, a person's particular style of constructing SDMs is similarly manifested in SDFPs, suggesting that both types of events can be used to ground the self. Notably, people who display a stronger tendency to extract meaning from their past experiences also reflect more about the potential implications of imagined future events. The results further demonstrate that SDMs and SDFPs both give rise to a strong sense of personal continuity over time and are meaningfully related to self-esteem. Together these findings lend support to the idea that a person's sense of self and identity is in part nourished by the anticipation of significant future events.

  11. Uncertainty of future projections of species distributions in mountainous regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Tang

    Full Text Available Multiple factors introduce uncertainty into projections of species distributions under climate change. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information used to calibrate a species distribution model and to downscale global climate model (GCM simulations to a finer spatial resolution is a particular concern for mountainous regions, as the spatial resolution of climate observing networks is often insufficient to detect the steep climatic gradients in these areas. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt modeling framework together with occurrence data on 21 understory bamboo species distributed across the mountainous geographic range of the Giant Panda, we examined the differences in projected species distributions obtained from two contrasting sources of baseline climate information, one derived from spatial interpolation of coarse-scale station observations and the other derived from fine-spatial resolution satellite measurements. For each bamboo species, the MaxEnt model was calibrated separately for the two datasets and applied to 17 GCM simulations downscaled using the delta method. Greater differences in the projected spatial distributions of the bamboo species were observed for the models calibrated using the different baseline datasets than between the different downscaled GCM simulations for the same calibration. In terms of the projected future climatically-suitable area by species, quantification using a multi-factor analysis of variance suggested that the sum of the variance explained by the baseline climate dataset used for model calibration and the interaction between the baseline climate data and the GCM simulation via downscaling accounted for, on average, 40% of the total variation among the future projections. Our analyses illustrate that the combined use of gridded datasets developed from station observations and satellite measurements can help estimate the uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline

  12. Development of a database system for near-future climate change projections under the Japanese National Project SI-CAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagawa, Y.; Kawahara, S.; Araki, F.; Matsuoka, D.; Ishikawa, Y.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Okada, Y.; Kawazoe, S.; Watanabe, S.; Ishii, M.; Mizuta, R.; Murata, A.; Kawase, H.

    2017-12-01

    Analyses of large ensemble data are quite useful in order to produce probabilistic effect projection of climate change. Ensemble data of "+2K future climate simulations" are currently produced by Japanese national project "Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT)" as a part of a database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF; Mizuta et al. 2016) produced by Program for Risk Information on Climate Change. Those data consist of global warming simulations and regional downscaling simulations. Considering that those data volumes are too large (a few petabyte) to download to a local computer of users, a user-friendly system is required to search and download data which satisfy requests of the users. We develop "a database system for near-future climate change projections" for providing functions to find necessary data for the users under SI-CAT. The database system for near-future climate change projections mainly consists of a relational database, a data download function and user interface. The relational database using PostgreSQL is a key function among them. Temporally and spatially compressed data are registered on the relational database. As a first step, we develop the relational database for precipitation, temperature and track data of typhoon according to requests by SI-CAT members. The data download function using Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) provides a function to download temporally and spatially extracted data based on search results obtained by the relational database. We also develop the web-based user interface for using the relational database and the data download function. A prototype of the database system for near-future climate change projections are currently in operational test on our local server. The database system for near-future climate change projections will be released on Data Integration and Analysis System Program (DIAS) in fiscal year 2017

  13. Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. L. Edwards

    2014-01-01

    Régional: Fettweis, 2007 climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB–elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9% at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0% at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs for sea level contributions are larger than the "no feedback" case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

  14. Reservoir adaptive operating rules based on both of historical streamflow and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Chen, Jie; Lei, Xiaohui; Feng, Maoyuan

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is affecting hydrological variables and consequently is impacting water resources management. Historical strategies are no longer applicable under climate change. Therefore, adaptive management, especially adaptive operating rules for reservoirs, has been developed to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climate change. However, to date, adaptive operating rules are generally based on future projections involving uncertainties under climate change, yet ignoring historical information. To address this, we propose an approach for deriving adaptive operating rules considering both historical information and future projections, namely historical and future operating rules (HAFOR). A robustness index was developed by comparing benefits from HAFOR with benefits from conventional operating rules (COR). For both historical and future streamflow series, maximizations of both average benefits and the robustness index were employed as objectives, and four trade-offs were implemented to solve the multi-objective problem. Based on the integrated objective, the simulation-based optimization method was used to optimize the parameters of HAFOR. Using the Dongwushi Reservoir in China as a case study, HAFOR was demonstrated to be an effective and robust method for developing adaptive operating rules under the uncertain changing environment. Compared with historical or projected future operating rules (HOR or FPOR), HAFOR can reduce the uncertainty and increase the robustness for future projections, especially regarding results of reservoir releases and volumes. HAFOR, therefore, facilitates adaptive management in the context that climate change is difficult to predict accurately.

  15. Future projects of light kaonic atom X-ray spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatsuno, H.; Bazzi, M.; Beer, G.; Bellotti, G.; Berucci, C.; Bragadireanu, A.M.; Bosnar, D.; Cargnelli, M.; Curceanu, C.; Butt, A.D.; D’Uffizi, A.; Fiorini, C.; Ghio, F.; Guaraldo, C.; Hayano, R.S.; Iliescu, M.; Ishiwatari, T.; Iwasaki, M.; Sandri, P. Levi; Marton, J.; Okada, S.; Pietreanu, D.; Piscicchia, K.; Vidal, A. Romero; Sbardella, E.; Scordo, A.; Shi, H.; Sirghi, D.L.; Sirghi, F.; Doce, O. Vazquez; Widmann, E.; Zmeskal, J.

    2016-01-01

    X-ray spectroscopy of light kaonic atoms is a unique tool to provide precise information on the fundamental K̄N interaction at the low-energy limit and the in-medium nuclear interaction of K"−. The future experiments of kaonic deuterium strong-interaction shift and width (SIDDHARTA-2 and J-PARC E57) can extract the isospin dependent K"−N interaction at threshold. The high-resolution X-ray spectroscopy of kaonic helium with microcalorimeters (J-PARC E62) has the possibility to solve the long-standing potential-strength problem of the attractive K"−-nucleus interaction. Here, the recent experimental results and the future projects of X-ray spectroscopy of light kaonic atoms are presented.

  16. Projection displays and MEMS: timely convergence for a bright future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hornbeck, Larry J.

    1995-09-01

    Projection displays and microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) have evolved independently, occasionally crossing paths as early as the 1950s. But the commercially viable use of MEMS for projection displays has been illusive until the recent invention of Texas Instruments Digital Light Processing TM (DLP) technology. DLP technology is based on the Digital Micromirror DeviceTM (DMD) microchip, a MEMS technology that is a semiconductor digital light switch that precisely controls a light source for projection display and hardcopy applications. DLP technology provides a unique business opportunity because of the timely convergence of market needs and technology advances. The world is rapidly moving to an all- digital communications and entertainment infrastructure. In the near future, most of the technologies necessary for this infrastrucutre will be available at the right performance and price levels. This will make commercially viable an all-digital chain (capture, compression, transmission, reception decompression, hearing, and viewing). Unfortunately, the digital images received today must be translated into analog signals for viewing on today's televisions. Digital video is the final link in the all-digital infrastructure and DLP technoogy provides that link. DLP technology is an enabler for digital, high-resolution, color projection displays that have high contrast, are bright, seamless, and have the accuracy of color and grayscale that can be achieved only by digital control. This paper contains an introduction to DMD and DLP technology, including the historical context from which to view their developemnt. The architecture, projection operation, and fabrication are presented. Finally, the paper includes an update about current DMD business opportunities in projection displays and hardcopy.

  17. Aligning BIM with FM: streamlining the process for future projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colleen Kasprzak

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A study performed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST, USA in 2004 found that owners account for approximately $10.6 billion of the $15.8 billion total inadequate interoperability costs of U.S. capital facility projects in 2002. Because of these inefficiency costs, it becomes vital that information produced during the design and construction phases of a project be transferred into operations with maximum leverage to the end users. However, very few owners have defined these informational needs or developed an integration strategy into existing maintenance management systems. To increase operational efficiency, an organization must first develop an understanding of their operating systems, as well as identify how Building Information Modeling (BIM will add value to their daily tasks. The Pennsylvania State University (PSU has a unique opportunity to diversely implement BIM processes because not only does the University act as an owner, but also as designer and construction manager on the majority of projects. The struggle that PSU faces is one that is unique only to owners with a large, existing, multifaceted building inventory. This paper outlines the current initiative by the Office of Physical Plant (OPP, the asset manager at PSU, to develop an information exchange framework between BIM and FM applications to be used internally. As a result of this research, PSU has been able to define owner operational requirements for future projects and develop a flexible integration framework to support additional BIM tasks and information exchanges.

  18. UPDATING THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF PROJECT EDUCATION TECHNOLOGY IN FUTURE MUSIC TEACHERS’ VOCAL AND CHORAL TRAINING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Haiye

    2017-04-01

    priority of long-term aims; principle of effectiveness; principle of integrating; principle of inter-subject relations; principle of interpretation of vocal and choral works; principle of intensification that can substantially influence forming of future music teachers’ readiness to vocal and choral activities. In conclusion this article outlines the ways of further determination of directions of forming the phenomenon of implementing project technology into future music teachers’ vocal and choral training.

  19. The human Genome project and the future of oncology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, Francis S.

    1996-01-01

    The Human Genome Project is an ambitious 15-year effort to devise maps and sequence of the 3-billion base pair human genome, including all 100,000 genes. The project is running ahead of schedule and under budget. Already the effects on progress in disease gene discovery have been dramatic, especially for cancer. The most appropriate uses of susceptibility testing for breast, ovarian, and colon cancer are being investigated in research protocols, and the need to prevent genetic discrimination in employment and health insurance is becoming more urgent. In the longer term, these gene discoveries are likely to usher in a new era of therapeutic molecular medicine

  20. Onshore wind energy potential over Iberia: present and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochinha, Carlos A.; Santos, João A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Onshore grid-connected wind power generation has been explored for more than three decades in the Iberian Peninsula. Further, increasing attention has been devoted to renewable energy sources in a climate change context. While advantages of wind energy are widely recognized, its distribution is not spatially homogeneous and not uniform throughout the year. Hence, understanding these spatial-temporal distributions is critical in power system planning. The present study aims at assessing the potential power output estimated from 10 m wind components simulated by a regional climate model (CCLM), driven by ERA40 reanalysis. Datasets are available on a grid with a high spatial resolution (approximately 20 km) and over a 40-yr period (1961-2000). Furthermore, several target sites, located in areas with high installed wind generation capacity, are selected for local-to-regional scale assessments. The results show that potential wind power is higher over northern Iberia, mostly in Cantabria and Galicia, while Andalucía and Cataluña record the lowest values. With respect to the intra-annual variability, summer is by far the season with the lowest potential energy outputs. Furthermore, the inter-annual variability reveals an overall downward long-term trend over the 40-yr period, particularly in the winter time series. A CCLM transient experiment, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario, is also discussed for a future period (2041-2070), after a model validation/calibration process (bias corrections). Significant changes in the wind power potential are projected for the future throughout Iberia, but their magnitude largely depends on the locations. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

  1. Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

  2. The Midwifery Legacies Project: history, progress, and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore-Davis, Tonia L; McGee, Karen B; Moore, Elaine M; Paine, Lisa L

    2015-01-01

    The Midwifery Legacies Project, formerly known as the OnGoing Group, was founded as an annual greeting card outreach aimed at maintaining contact with midwives as they approached retirement and beyond. In 2009, the importance of documenting personal and professional stories of midwives arose out of a bequest by a midwife who was relatively unknown outside of the community she served. The result has been the evolution of a robust collection of stories, which are known as the 20th Century Midwife Story Collection. Between 2009 and 2014, more than 120 US midwives aged 65 years or older were interviewed by a midwife, a student midwife, or a professional filmmaker. Collectively, these midwives' stories offer an intimate snapshot of the social, political, and cultural influences that have shaped US midwifery during the past half century. Individually, the stories honor and recognize midwives' contributions to the profession and the women they have served. This article details the development, progress, and future directions of the Midwifery Legacies Project. © 2015 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

  3. Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce: Current status, concerns and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morinville, Véronique; Drouin, Éric; Lévesque, Dominique; Espinosa, Victor M; Jacobson, Kevan

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: There is concern that the Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce is inadequate to meet health care demands of the pediatric population. The Canadian Association of Gastroenterology Pediatric Committee performed a survey to determine characteristics and future plans of the Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce and trainees. METHODS: Estimates of total and pediatric populations were obtained from the 2001 Census of Population, Statistics Canada (with estimates to July 1, 2005). Data on Canadian pediatric gastroenterologists, including clinical full-time equivalents, sex, work interests, opinions on workforce adequacy, retirement plans, fellowship training programs and future employment plans of fellows, were gathered through e-mail surveys and telephone correspondence in 2005 and 2006. RESULTS: Canada had an estimated population of 32,270,507 in 2005 (6,967,853 people aged zero to 17 years). The pediatric gastroenterology workforce was estimated at 9.2 specialists per million children. Women accounted for 50% of the workforce. Physician to pediatric population ratios varied, with Alberta demonstrating the highest and Saskatchewan the lowest ratios (1:69,404 versus 1:240,950, respectively). Between 1998 and 2005, Canadian pediatric gastroenterology fellowship programs trained 65 fellows (65% international trainees). Twenty-two fellows (34%) entered the Canadian workforce. CONCLUSIONS: The survey highlights the variable and overall low numbers of pediatric gastroenterologists across Canada, an increasingly female workforce, a greater percentage of part-time physicians and a small cohort of Canadian trainees. In conjunction with high projected retirement rates, greater demands on the work-force and desires to partake in nonclinical activities, there is concern for an increasing shortage of pediatric gastroenterologists in Canada in future years. PMID:17948136

  4. Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Cheryl A; Dunne, John P; Eakin, C Mark; Donner, Simon D

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming-induced bleaching remains largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias-corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the preindustrial period through 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a preindustrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method overpredicts the present-day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2-10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20-80% compared with the 'no adaptive response' prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high-frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high-frequency bleaching by ca. 10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and

  5. Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas-Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.

    2013-07-01

    Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrap-based method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of Hs up to ±10% were obtained, whereas they were around ±20% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of Hs are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the Hs magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

  6. The MY NASA DATA Project: Preparing Future Earth and Environmental Scientists, and Future Citizens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, L. H.; Phelps, C. S.; Phipps, M.; Holzer, M.; Daugherty, P.; Poling, E.; Vanderlaan, S.; Oots, P. C.; Moore, S. W.; Diones, D. D.

    2008-12-01

    global Earth System. These armchair explorers learn to unite datasets in a region to learn about places like and unlike where they live. In a world that's becoming smaller and smaller with the aid of technology, projects like MND prepare our students for their global future. A teacher located in an area of California strongly impacted by pollution and potential climate changes noted that this project makes available data that are very relevant to issues that will affect her students' lives. She points out that not all scientific information they currently see is in a form that is understandable to an educated citizen, and that the experience with MND will enable her students to have better than average skills not only for deciphering scientific maps and graphs; but also for creating maps and graphics that successfully convey information to others.

  7. Projecting future solid waste management requirements on the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaver, S.R.; Stiles, D.L.; Holter, G.M.; Anderson, B.C.

    1990-09-01

    The problem of treating and disposing of hazardous transuranic (TRU), low-level radioactive, and mixed waste has become a major concern of the public and the government. At the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site in Washington state, the problem is compounded by the need to characterize, retrieve, and treat the solid waste that was generated and stored for retrieval during the past 20 years. This paper discusses the development and application of a Solid Waste Projection Model that uses forecast volumes and characteristics of existing and future solid waste to address the treatment, storage, and disposal requirements at Hanford. The model uses a data-driven, object-oriented approach to assess the storage and treatment throughout requirements for each operation for each of the distinct waste classes and the accompanying cost of the storage and treatment operations. By defining the elements of each alternative for the total waste management system, the same database can be used for numerous analyses performed at different levels of detail. This approach also helps a variety of users with widely varying information requirements to use the model and helps achieve the high degree of flexibility needed to cope with changing regulations and evolving treatment and disposal technologies. 2 figs

  8. Optimizing the financial structure and maximizing the future value of your generation project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arulampalam, G.; Letellier, M.

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses ways of optimizing the financial structure and maximizing the future value of an electric power generation project. It outlines the project structure, the sponsor objectives, project finance lending criteria, project timeline, risk mitigation, bank and institutional financing, sponsor's role, impact of financing choices on project value, and impact of penalties and derivative products

  9. Pointing the Way to the Future of Project Management: How the Past and Present Point Towards Project Management's Future

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ballister, Robert

    2003-01-01

    .... The lessons learned from those projects, coupled with a look at project management history in general, will be checked against a current project management theory to determine if the focus of today's...

  10. Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimmerstedt, Laura J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-01-02

    This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use service demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.

  11. How Effective Leaders Harness the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souba, Wiley; Souba, Matthew

    2018-02-01

    Human beings are fundamentally future oriented. Most of our decisions and undertakings are for the sake of a future to which we are committed or obligated. This future orientation is essential to effective leadership in health care, especially during this time of significant reform, when people are at risk of becoming cynical and disengaged. Conventional thinking holds that our effectiveness as leaders is primarily a function of what we have learned in the past-our knowledge, expertise, and experience. In contrast, the emerging model contends that our effectiveness is also a function of how the future (outcome) of our leadership challenges "shows up" for us. If, despite daunting circumstances, we can "see" an aspired future ahead, we are more likely to commit and engage. Our story of the future becomes the "narrative frame" through which we see and tackle leadership challenges today. Because organizations are fundamentally networks of conversations, an organization's ability to create new language practices is tantamount to its ability to evolve. What makes the future compelling is the embodiment of our deepest convictions and ideals in our image of the future. Because health care reform has challenged the medical profession along the entire spectrum of its traditional values and roles, working toward a unifying vision of the future has been difficult. To enroll others in creating a better future, effective leaders must underscore the purpose and importance of their work and motivate them with inspiring stories.

  12. Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — A glimpse into current and future projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative

  13. Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — A glimpse into current and future projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative.

  14. Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — a glimpse into current and future projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative.

  15. Documenter le futur: fantasmes, projections et decalages spatiotemporels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alice Forge

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Le concept de documentation future recèle un paradoxe : le mot documenter renvoie à des traces relevées dans un passé factuel, tandis que le futur ne peut, par définition, être qu’incertain, que l’objet de fantasmes, de projections. L’analyse suivante questionne ce paradoxe à travers l’analyse d’un motif cinématographique : un homme et une femme face à une tranche de séquoia, représentation symbolique du temps. Ce motif apparait dans trois oeuvres majeures du cinéma : Vertigo, d’Alfred Hitchcock, La Jetée de Chris Marker, et l’Armée des douze singes, de Terry Gilliam. La répétition de ce motif est mise en rapport avec l’ouvrage de Pierre Bayard, Le plagiat par anticipation, afin de l’envisager sous l’angle du paradoxe temporel, plutôt que sous le régime de la chronologie historique. Cette analyse prend pour point de départ une oeuvre intitulée Vozes Fantasmas, qui sur le principe de la documentation future propose d’écouter des murmures de spectateurs visitant une exposition qui n’a pas eu lieu. RESUMO O conceito de documentação do futuro evoca um paradoxo: o verbo documentar refere-se a traços ou rastros preservados de um passado factual, enquanto o futuro por definição é algo incerto, objeto de especulações, fantasias e projeções. Nossa reflexão questiona este paradoxo a partir da análise de uma cena cinematográfica: um homem e uma mulher em frente de um corte de sequoia, que é a representação simbólica do tempo. Esta cena aprece em três grandes obras do cinema: Vertigo (Um corpo que cai de Alfred Hitchcock, La Jetée de Chris Marker, e Os Doze Macacos de Terry Gilliam. A repetição desta cena é abordada em relação à obra de Pierre Bayard, Plágio por antecipação, a fim de considerá-la em termos de paradoxo temporal, e não como uma cronologia histórica. Esta análise tem como ponto de partida um trabalho artístico intitulado Vozes Fantasmas, que seguindo o princípio de

  16. Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Agneta; Meier, H E Markus; Ripszam, Matyas; Rowe, Owen; Wikner, Johan; Haglund, Peter; Eilola, Kari; Legrand, Catherine; Figueroa, Daniela; Paczkowska, Joanna; Lindehoff, Elin; Tysklind, Mats; Elmgren, Ragnar

    2015-06-01

    Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 °C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.

  17. An alternative projection model of future nuclear capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takei, Mitsuo

    1985-01-01

    There is generally a high degree of uncertainty involved in the projection of growth of any energy source, especially when the projection extends 50 years ahead. The 1982 OECD/NEA Report, 'Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle Prospect to 2025' notes the downturn in past projections of nuclear capacity over the past decade. It is obvious that rapidly changing conditions have affected overall worldwide energy and economic growth and the field of nuclear power has been subject to changes specific to itself. These have caused past projections to become obsolete and therefore it would seem necessary to implement a new projection method to improve the accuracy of present forecasting. (author)

  18. Impact of choice of future climate change projection on growth chamber experimental outcomes: a preliminary study in potato

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leisner, Courtney P.; Wood, Joshua C.; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S.; Robin Buell, C.; Winkler, Julie A.

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.

  19. Floridian heatwaves and extreme precipitation: future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavendra, Ajay; Dai, Aiguo; Milrad, Shawn M.; Cloutier-Bisbee, Shealynn R.

    2018-02-01

    Observational analysis and climate modeling efforts concur that the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves will increase as the Earth's mean climate shifts towards warmer temperatures. While the impacts and mechanisms of heatwaves have been well explored, extreme temperatures over Florida are generally understudied. This paper sheds light on Floridian heatwaves by exploring 13 years of daily data from surface observations and high-resolution WRF climate simulations for the same timeframe. The characteristics of the current and future heatwaves under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario for 2070-2099 were then investigated. Results show a tripling in the frequency, and greater than a sixfold increase in the mean duration of heatwaves over Florida when the current standard of heatwaves was used. The intensity of heatwaves also increased by 4-6 °C due to the combined effects of rising mean temperatures and a 1-2 °C increase attributed to the flattening of the temperature distribution. Since Florida's atmospheric boundary layer is rich in moisture and heatwaves could further increase the moisture content in the lower troposphere, the relationship between heatwaves and extreme precipitation was also explored in both the current and future climate. As expected, rainfall during a heatwave event was anomalously low, but it quickly recovered to normal within 3 days after the passage of a heatwave. Finally, the late 21st-century climate could witness a slight decrease in the mean precipitation over Florida, accompanied by heavier heatwave-associated extreme precipitation events over central and southern Florida.

  20. Addressing the security of a future sustainable power system: The Danish SOSPO project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Guangya; Jóhannsson, Hjörtur; Lind, Morten

    2012-01-01

    evaluated to secure the operation from both transmission and distribution levels. The Danish SOSPO project is launched from 2012 targeting at the system security assessment in the control room for the future scenarios. Methods will be developed in this project to counteract with the future challenges......Current power systems have been undergoing in depth changes by the increasing use of renewable generations. At one hand, the grid is progressively more interconnected in order to collect the renewable generation from geographically dispersed places meanwhile reduce the risks of intermittency......; on the other, the power is increasingly generated at relative low voltage networks which in turn gives rise to new challenges in the conventional system design. The high governmental objective of greenhouse gas reduction provokes accelerating adoptation of the renewables. The effect of this has to be carefully...

  1. SAT projects' effectiveness: managerial aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazennov, A.; Zlokazov, A.; Kossilov, A.

    2003-01-01

    Discussion provided below in the text and on the presentation transparencies is based on hands-on experience of SAT projects' implementation which have been or being conducted in several countries, and intended to develop or upgrade NPP personnel training. We will 'risk' to say that no comprehensive system, training system in particular, can work without feedback. A powerful tool to establish a controllability of a training process is to measure (using certain criteria) trainees' performance., training process, employees' qualification, on-job human performance, overall plant performance, and then (using certain algorithms) to provide feedback control to training and the whole organization with clear understanding and grading whether we deal with training-related root causes or not. In this way a training effectiveness may be considered as a feature that shows to what extent training is producing a desired result (e.g. developing needed skills, knowledge and attitudes, enhancing quality, safety and productivity, establishing cost-effective training, etc.). In order to design a training system with the features of feedback control, the SAT projects are implemented. In this respect SAT is more 'systems' rather than 'systematic' approach. Obviously, the criteria to evaluate a training system should be established. SAT implementation may be considered as a corrective action to fix the problems associated with the deficiencies in personnel competence or ineffectiveness of training system. But each corrective action or initiative related to a training system development should be generated and justified through normal process of evaluation and systematic needs analysis. The effectiveness of a training development project shall be evaluated against the overall goal and specific objectives of a project. The ultimate overall goal of SAT project implementation is to develop or upgrade NPP personnel training programmes and the whole training system in order to provide

  2. The human genome project and the future of medical practice ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Contrary to the scepticism that characterised the planning stages of the human genome project, the technology and sequence data resulting from the project are set to revolutionise medical practice for good. The expected benefits include: enhanced discovery of disease genes, which will lead to improved knowledge on the ...

  3. [Gdansk HIV-AIDS project, yesterday, today and future].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zielińska, W

    1995-09-01

    Medical care project for HIV positive and AIDS patients in Gdańsk voivodship was established in 1988 in the Clinic for Infectious Diseases of Gdańsk Medical University. The aim of this modern and multidirectional program was to provide full medical care for HIV/AIDS patients and introduce effective prophylaxis against spread of HIV infection. According to the project-clinical ward, outpatient clinic for HIV positive and AIDS patients, diagnostic and laboratory units, were established. Close cooperation including specialistic and general medical care, was set with detoxication ward, rehabilitation centers for drug addicts, prison medical services and the Korczak Orphanage. Education of medical staff and some social groups was provided (teachers, teenagers of secondary schools, journalists, police employees). Clinical ward for HIV positive patients who are in need of inpatient medical care is localized in the Clinic for Infectious Diseases of Gdańsk Medical University. The ward has 16 double - bed Melcer's boxes which are used for other HIV/AIDS patients according to present needs. Free beds are used for HIV negative patients. HIV/AIDS Outpatient Clinic is localized in Venerologic Outpatient Unit. This was because of some psychological, social, professional and organization aspects. Outpatient Clinic staff is responsible for first patients' examination. Serological diagnostics of HIV infection is follow up for everyone (anonymous testing is possible); testing for STD is available also. Diagnostic laboratory base for clinical ward and other units are the laboratories of Gdańsk Voivodship Hospital for Infectious Diseases. Clinic for Infectious Diseases supervises all co-operating units. These are the following: 10-beds detoxication ward for drug addicts in Psychiatric - Neurological Hospital "Srebrzysko", 70-80 places in rehabilitation centers for drug addicts in Zapowiednik and Smazyno, remand prison ward for HIV positive patients (this is the first ward

  4. ORGANIZATION OF FUTURE ENGINEERS' PROJECT-BASED LEARNING WHEN STUDYING THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halyna V. Lutsenko

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The peculiarities of modern world experience of implementation of project-based learning in engineering education have been considered. The potential role and place of projects in learning activity have been analyzed. The methodology of organization of project-based activity of engineering students when studying the project management methodology and computer systems of project management has been proposed. The requirements to documentation and actual results of students' projects have been described in detail. The requirements to computer-aided systems of project management developed by using Microsoft Project in the scope of diary scheduling and resources planning have been formulated.

  5. Glaucoma in Asia: regional prevalence variations and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Errol Wei'en; Li, Xiang; Tham, Yih-Chung; Liao, Jiemin; Wong, Tien Yin; Aung, Tin; Cheng, Ching-Yu

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate glaucoma prevalence and disease burden across Asian subregions from 2013 to 2040. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of 23 population-based studies of 1318 primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) cases in 66,800 individuals and 691 primary angle closure glaucoma (PACG) cases in 72,767 individuals in Asia. Regions in Asia were defined based on United Nations' (UN) classification of macro-geographic regions. PubMed, Medline and Web of Science databases were searched for population-based glaucoma prevalence studies using standardised criteria published to 31 December 2013. Pooled glaucoma prevalence for individuals aged 40-80 years was calculated using hierarchical Bayesian approaches. Prevalence differences by geographic subregion, subtype and habitation were examined with random effects meta-regression models. Estimates of individuals with glaucoma from 2013 to 2040 were based on the UN World Population Prospects. In 2013, pooled overall glaucoma prevalence was 3.54% (95% credible interval (CrI) 1.83 to 6.28). POAG (2.34%, 95% CrI 0.96 to 4.55) predominated over PACG (0.73%, 95% CrI 0.18 to 1.96). With age and gender adjustment, PACG prevalence was higher in East than South East Asia (OR 5.55, 95% CrI 1.52 to 14.73), and POAG prevalence was higher in urban than rural populations (OR 2.11, 95% CrI 1.57 to 2.38). From 2013 to 2040, South Central Asia will record the steepest increase in number of glaucoma individuals from 17.06 million to 32.90 million compared with other Asian subregions. In 2040, South-Central Asia is also projected to overtake East Asia for highest overall glaucoma and POAG burden, while PACG burden remains highest in East Asia. Across the Asian subregions, there was greater glaucoma burden in South-Central and East Asia. Sustainable public health strategies to combat glaucoma in Asia are needed. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to

  6. The Philippine nuclear power project, its past, present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovellanos, J.U.

    1993-01-01

    The article discussed the historical background of the nuclear power plants; how it operates; the government opinion on the operation of the nuclear power plant; the application of power resources to industry; the implementation of PNPP-1 particularly the economic aspects of energy in the near future. (IMA)

  7. First results and future projects for Petula ECE measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    How, J.; Melin, G.; Girard, A.

    1985-01-01

    Electron cyclotron emission (ECE) diagnostics are being installed on the Petula-B tokamak. First results include extensive measurements of the total ECE radiation, integrated over 50-1000 GHz, during ohmic and current drive operation, and preliminary interferograms from the polarizing interferometer. Future plans are discussed

  8. Present status and future development of Qinshan nuclear power project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouyang Yu

    1987-01-01

    Qinshan 300 MWe Nuclear power Project is the first domestically designed and constructed nuclear power plant in China. Here is a brief description of its progress in design work, equipment manufacture and site construction since the first structural concrete in March 1985. In Qinshan area four units of 600 MWe each are planned to be built with collaboration of proper foreign partners. (author)

  9. Suicide among Older People: Projections for the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, Ann Pollinger; Hendin, Herbert

    1983-01-01

    Demonstrates the relationship between cohort size and longitudinal suicide rates, with reference to four particular cohorts. Combines this perspective with projected population increases among older age groups to estimate the scope of the problem of suicide among older people during the early decades of the next century. (Author/JAC)

  10. Irradiation project of SiC/SiC fuel pin 'INSPIRE': Status and future plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohyama, Akira; Kishimoto, Hirotatsu

    2015-01-01

    After the March 11 Disaster in East-Japan, Research and Development towards Ensuring Nuclear Safety Enhancement for LWR becomes a top priority R and D in nuclear energy policy of Japan. The role of high temperature non-metallic materials, such as SiC/SiC, is becoming important for the advanced nuclear reactor systems. SiC fibre reinforced SiC composite has been recognised to be the most attractive option for the future, now, METI fund based project, INSPIRE, has been launched as 5-year termed project at OASIS in Muroran Institute of Technology aiming at early realisation of this system. INSPIRE is the irradiation project of SiC/SiC fuel pins aiming to accumulate material, thermal, irradiation effect data of NITE-SiC/SiC in BWR environment. Nuclear fuel inserted SiC/SiC fuel pins are planned to be installed in the Halden reactor. The project includes preparing the NITE-SiC/SiC tubes, joining of end caps, preparation of rigs to control the irradiation environment to BWR condition and the instruments to measure the condition of rigs and pins in operation. Also, basic neutron irradiation data will be accumulated by SiC/SiC coupon samples currently under irradiation in BR2. The output from this project may present the potentiality of NITE-SiC/SiC fuel cladding with the first stage fuel-cladding interaction. (authors)

  11. Point Lepreau nuclear project unlocks power future of New Brunswick

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgess, E J [New Brunswick Electric Power Commission, Fredericton (Canada)

    1976-08-01

    Projects under development will increase the generating capacity of New Brunswick Electric Power Commission from 1.47 to 3.14 GW. Of these projects, the most significant is the 0.63 GW Point Lepreau CANDU reactor. Progress in the construction of the power reactor is summarized. The concrete reactor building was slipformed in April 1976. A second nuclear unit at Point Lepreau is being considered. Information is also provided on the new oil-fired station at Coleson Cove, a new oil- or coal-fired unit at Dalhousie and further hydro units at Mactaquac. A 0.16 GW pumped storage hydro unit at Green River is being considered. Information on transmission (Including the HVDC system), substations, and connection with Hydro Quebec is included.

  12. The Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project: Experiences and future plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, D.E.; Lego, A.J.; Clifford, A.E.

    1995-12-31

    Fully operational in June of 1994, the Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project was started to gain insight into the costs and benefits of providing ISDN service to the homes of Fermilab researchers. Fourteen users were chosen from throughout Fermilab, but the number of Fermilab-employed spouses pushed the total user count to 20. Each home was equipped with a basic rate ISDN (BRI) line, a BRI Ethernet half-bridge, and an NT-1. An inter-departmental team coordinated the project. Usage at each home was tracked and frequent surveys were attempted. Lessons learned include: working with Ameritech can be difficult; careful monitoring is essential; and configuration of home computing equipment is very time consuming. Plans include moving entirely to primary rate ISDN hubs, support for different home ISDN equipment and better usage and performance tracking.

  13. The Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project: Experiences and future plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, D.E.; Lego, A.J.; Clifford, A.E.

    1995-01-01

    Fully operational in June of 1994, the Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project was started to gain insight into the costs and benefits of providing ISDN service to the homes of Fermilab researchers. Fourteen users were chosen from throughout Fermilab, but the number of Fermilab-employed spouses pushed the total user count to 20. Each home was equipped with a basic rate ISDN (BRI) line, a BRI Ethernet half-bridge, and an NT-1. An inter-departmental team coordinated the project. Usage at each home was tracked and frequent surveys were attempted. Lessons learned include: working with Ameritech can be difficult; careful monitoring is essential; and configuration of home computing equipment is very time consuming. Plans include moving entirely to primary rate ISDN hubs, support for different home ISDN equipment and better usage and performance tracking

  14. The Fermilab ISDN pilot project: experiences and future plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, D.E.; Lego, A.J.; Clifford, A.E.

    1996-01-01

    Fully operational in June of 1994, the Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project was started to gain insight into the costs and benefits of providing ISDN service to the homes of Fermilab researchers. Fourteen were chosen from throughout Fermilab, but the number of Fermilab-employed spouses pushed the total user count to 20. each home was equipped with a basic rate ISDN (BRI) Ethernet half-bridge, and an NT-1. An inter-departmental team coordinated the project. Usage at each home was tracked and frequent surveys were attempted. Lessons learned include: working with Ameritech can be difficult; careful monitoring is essential; and configuration of home computing equipment is very time consuming. Plans include moving entirely to primary rate ISDN hubs, support for different home ISDN equipment and better usage and performance tracking. (author)

  15. Small launchers (current and future projects in the world)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumann, W. G.

    1993-01-01

    Small satellites need launching services using small launchers capable of injecting 100 to 1000 kg into a polar orbit at an altitude of 1000 km. Operational small launchers are reviewed as well as developing and planned ones. Launcher characteristics, constraints, performance, and status are detailed. Few technical problems are encountered, as most launcher projects call for existing components and well known technologies. Most of the difficulties have come from launch site availability and from financial considerations.

  16. Future Urban Climate Projection in A Tropical Megacity Based on Global and Regional Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

    2017-12-01

    Cities in Asian developing countries experience rapid transformation in urban morphology and energy consumption, which correspondingly affects urban climate. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) in the tropic Jakarta Greater Area was conducted. Simulation was conducted during the dry months from 2006 to 2015 and agreed well with point and satellite observation. The same technology coupled with pseudo global warming (PGW) method based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario 2.6 and 8.5 was conducted to produce futuristic climate condition in 2050. Projected urban morphology and AHE in 2050s were constructed using regional urban growing model with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) among its inputs. Compact future urban configuration, based on SSP1, was coupled to RCP2.6. Unrestrained future urban configuration, based on SSP3, was coupled to RCP8.5. Results show that background warming from RCP 2.6 and 8.5 will increase background temperature by 0.55°C and 1.2°C throughout the region, respectively. Future projection of urban sprawl results to an additional 0.3°C and 0.5°C increase on average, with maximum increase of 1.1°C and 1.3°C due to urban effect for RCP2.6/compact and RCP8.5/unrestrained, respectively. Higher moisture content in urban area is indicated in the future due to higher evaporation. Change in urban roughness is likely affect slower wind velocity in urban area and sea breeze front inland penetration the future compare with current condition. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

  17. Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Taylor

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF, a relatively recently emerged zoonosis endemic to large parts of sub-Saharan Africa that has the potential to spread beyond the continent, have profound health and socio-economic impacts, particularly in communities where resilience is already low. Here output from a new, dynamic disease model [the Liverpool RVF (LRVF model], driven by downscaled, bias-corrected climate change data from an ensemble of global circulation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project run according to two radiative forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5], is combined with results of a spatial assessment of social vulnerability to the disease in eastern Africa. The combined approach allowed for analyses of spatial and temporal variations in the risk of RVF to the end of the current century. Results for both scenarios highlight the high-risk of future RVF outbreaks, including in parts of eastern Africa to date unaffected by the disease. The results also highlight the risk of spread from/to countries adjacent to the study area, and possibly farther afield, and the value of considering the geography of future projections of disease risk. Based on the results, there is a clear need to remain vigilant and to invest not only in surveillance and early warning systems, but also in addressing the socio-economic factors that underpin social vulnerability in order to mitigate, effectively, future impacts.

  18. Measurement of software project management effectiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Demir, Kadir Alpaslan

    2008-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Evaluating, monitoring, and improving the effectiveness of project management can contribute to successful acquisition of software systems. In this dissertation, we introduce a quantitative metric for gauging the effectiveness of managing a software-development project. The metric may be used to evaluate and monitor project management effectiveness in software projects by project managers, technical managers, executive man...

  19. The future is no longer what it used to be. Managing health telematics projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demeester, M; Beuscart, R

    1997-09-01

    Future used to mean global progress and convergence of science and technology and society. Today, we observe the decoupling of the two poles of knowledge formation and application (i.e. science and technology, and culture and society, respectively) and also fierce confrontation between them. The key issue to reconcile the two poles is to re-invent the link between them. The new future lies in the development of mental and technical capacities for change and the creation of new forms of solidarity. We propose, as a general attitude, to reactivate and develop the four principles of efficacy-effectiveness-efficiency, hospitality, responsibility and pertinence. Translated into driving forces for the development of health care telematic projects, they amount to the acceptance of and capacity for enterprise-wide solutions, hospitality and capacity to acquire outside knowledge, self-managed, multi-functional team work spirit, reengineering mentality to achieve pertinent technico-cultural solutions.

  20. Insurance and indemnification implications of future space projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, John E.

    1987-01-01

    NASA options regarding insurance and indemnification policies as they relate to NASA customers and contractors are described. The foundation for the discussion is the way in which NASA is planning to return the Space Shuttle fleet to safe flight as well as current U.S. policy concerning future uses of the Shuttle fleet. Issues discussed include: the nature of the Shuttle manifest; the policy regarding property damage or destruction; insurance against liability to third parties; the reduction of the scope of the risk to be insured; NASA as the insurer; a sharing arrangement between the user and NASA; and contractors and subcontractors involved in Shuttle operations.

  1. Atmospheric nucleation: highlights of the EUCAARI project and future directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.-M. Kerminen

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Within the project EUCAARI (European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality interactions, atmospheric nucleation was studied by (i developing and testing new air ion and cluster spectrometers, (ii conducting homogeneous nucleation experiments for sulphate and organic systems in the laboratory, (iii investigating atmospheric nucleation mechanism under field conditions, and (iv applying new theoretical and modelling tools for data interpretation and development of parameterisations. The current paper provides a synthesis of the obtained results and identifies the remaining major knowledge gaps related to atmospheric nucleation. The most important technical achievement of the project was the development of new instruments for measuring sub-3 nm particle populations, along with the extensive application of these instruments in both the laboratory and the field. All the results obtained during EUCAARI indicate that sulphuric acid plays a central role in atmospheric nucleation. However, also vapours other than sulphuric acid are needed to explain the nucleation and the subsequent growth processes, at least in continental boundary layers. Candidate vapours in this respect are some organic compounds, ammonia, and especially amines. Both our field and laboratory data demonstrate that the nucleation rate scales to the first or second power of the nucleating vapour concentration(s. This agrees with the few earlier field observations, but is in stark contrast with classical thermodynamic nucleation theories. The average formation rates of 2-nm particles were found to vary by almost two orders of magnitude between the different EUCAARI sites, whereas the formation rates of charged 2-nm particles varied very little between the sites. Overall, our observations are indicative of frequent, yet moderate, ion-induced nucleation usually outweighed by much stronger neutral nucleation events in the continental lower troposphere. The most concrete

  2. Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudeepkumar, B. L.; Babu, C. A.; Varikoden, Hamza

    2018-02-01

    The effect of global climate change on Indian summer monsoon has been analysed with special emphasis on active-break cycle. The changes in intensity and duration of active and break monsoon conditions towards the end of the century are studied by using 850 hPa zonal circulations. The analysis is carried out using twenty year climatology of historical period (1986-2005) and future projections (2080-2099) simulated as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Models are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The models that effectively capture the circulation pattern of monsoon (JJAS) are considered for assessing the future climate in RCP 4.5 scenario. They are CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR. During the southwest monsoon period, the ensemble mean of models projects a strengthening of the wind speed towards north (north of 15°N) and weakening to the southern region (especially south of 12°N) which facilitates wetting of northern Indian regions and drying of southern peninsular regions. In the case of active-break conditions, the active spells are found to be strengthening over northern India and weakening over the peninsular India, the break spells intensify over southern tip of peninsular India indicating intense breaks. Increased propensity of short intense active days and decreased propensity of long active days are also projected by the models. The number of break spells does not show any significant changes.

  3. The GeantV project: preparing the future of simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amadio, G; Bianchini, C; Iope, R L; Apostolakis, J; Brun, R; Carminati, F; Gheata, A; Nikitina, T; Novak, M; Pokorski, W; Shadura, O; Bandieramonte, M; Bhattacharyya, A; Mohanty, A; Seghal, R; Canal, Ph; Elvira, D; Lima, G; Duhem, L; De Fine Licht, J

    2015-01-01

    Detector simulation is consuming at least half of the HEP computing cycles, and even so, experiments have to take hard decisions on what to simulate, as their needs greatly surpass the availability of computing resources. New experiments still in the design phase such as FCC, CLIC and ILC as well as upgraded versions of the existing LHC detectors will push further the simulation requirements. Since the increase in computing resources is not likely to keep pace with our needs, it is therefore necessary to explore innovative ways of speeding up simulation in order to sustain the progress of High Energy Physics. The GeantV project aims at developing a high performance detector simulation system integrating fast and full simulation that can be ported on different computing architectures, including CPU accelerators. After more than two years of R and D the project has produced a prototype capable of transporting particles in complex geometries exploiting micro-parallelism, SIMD and multithreading. Portability is obtained via C++ template techniques that allow the development of machine- independent computational kernels. A set of tables derived from Geant4 for cross sections and final states provides a realistic shower development and, having been ported into a Geant4 physics list, can be used as a basis for a direct performance comparison. (paper)

  4. Balance of plant improvements for future reactor projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollingshaus, H.

    1987-01-01

    Many studies have shown that improvements in portions of the plant other than the reactor systems can yield large cost savings during the design, construction, and operation of future reactor power plants. This portion is defined as the Balance of Plant which includes virtually everything except the equipment furnished by the Nuclear Steam Supply System manufacturer. It normally includes the erection of the entire plant including the NSSS. Cost of BOP equipment, engineering and construction work is therefore most of the cost of the plant. Improvements in the BOP have been identified that will substantially reduce nuclear plant cost and construction time while at the same time increasing availability and operability and improving safety. Improvements achieved through standardizatoin, simplification, three-dimensional (3D) computer-aided design, modular construction, innovative construction techniques, and applications for Artificial Intelligence Systems are described. (author)

  5. Climate change projections: past and future mysteries of climate science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meehl, Gerald A.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: The history of climate change has been wrapped in mysteries. Some have been solved, and we await the outcome of others. The major mystery of 20th century climate was why did temperatures rise in the early part of the century, level off, and then rise rapidly again after the 1970s? It has only been in the past seven years that advances in climate modelling have allowed us to deconstruct 20th century climate to pull apart the separate influences of natural and human-caused factors. This has allowed us to understand the subtle interplay between these various influences that produced the temperature time evolution. Another mystery has involved extreme weather and climate events. Again, climate models have allowed us to quantify how the small changes in average climate translate into much larger changes of regional extremes. The biggest remaining mysteries in climate science involve the future, and how the climate will evolve over the coming century. Up until now, various scenarios postulating different possible outcomes for 21st century climate, assuming different types of human activities, have been run in the climate models to provide a wide range of possible futures. However, more recently the outlook for global warming is being framed as a combination of mitigation and adaptation. If policy actions are taken to mitigate part of the problem of global warming, then climate models must be relied on to quantify the time-evolving picture of how much regional climate change we must adapt to. Solving this mystery will be the biggest and most important challenge ever taken on by the climate modelling community

  6. Geothermal project will predetermine future of the Kosice heating plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirman, K.

    2003-01-01

    Geoterm, a.s. manager O. Halas describes economic and technical parameters of geothermal energy source by village Durkov near Kosice. It is planned to exploitate geothermal energy source for Kosicka heating plant (TEKO). Three basic variants of technical connecting to geothermal source are developed. Temperature at TEKO entrance should reach 125 degrees, annual heating energy supply will reach 2100 TJ and source output will reach 100 MWt, while admissible deviation at all indicators reaches 10%. The first geothermal energy should by supplied to TEKO in 2007. The investments overlapping 3 billions Slovak crowns are necessary to realize whole project. According to O. Halas a credit from World Bank guaranteed by state is crucial

  7. Projection of Korean Probable Maximum Precipitation under Future Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okjeong Lee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, air temperature and humidity of the future are expected to gradually increase over the current. In this study, future PMPs are estimated by using future dew point temperature projection data which are obtained from RCM data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. First, bias included in future dew point temperature projection data which is provided on a daily basis is corrected through a quantile-mapping method. Next, using a scale-invariance technique, 12-hour duration 100-year return period dew point temperatures which are essential input data for PMPs estimation are estimated from bias-corrected future dew point temperature data. After estimating future PMPs, it can be shown that PMPs in all future climate change scenarios (AR5 RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 are very likely to increase.

  8. Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur, E-mail: mdmamunur.rashid@mymail.unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Beecham, Simon, E-mail: simon.beecham@unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Chowdhury, Rezaul K., E-mail: rezaulkabir@uaeu.ac.ae [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, PO Box 15551 (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-10-15

    A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages. - Highlights: • A generalized linear model was used for multi-site daily rainfall downscaling. • Rainfall was downscaled from CMIP5 GCM outputs. • Two multi-model ensemble approaches were used. • Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping

  9. Efficient and Effective Project Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dusan Pene

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to investigate different authorities and responsibilities of a project manager and of a project leader. Considering the fact that nowadays the project management is becoming the important factor in performing and leading the investments which are modified by modern leadership theories, we can say that the key element is the sovereign leadership of a manager and a project leader. The current multi-project environments and modern techniques at the project management area need the interdisciplinary leadership approach and at the same time they enable the strengthening of company’s competitive features so they are consistently satisfying high project expectations of the project investor or a client.

  10. Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress, uncertainties and research needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Yu, Weiwei; Tong, Shilu

    2015-02-01

    Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. An Open Access future? Report from the eurocancercoms project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, R; Warden, R

    2011-01-01

    In March 2011, as part of the background research to the FP7 Eurocancercoms project, the European Association for Cancer Research (EACR) conducted an online survey of its members working in Europe to discover their experiences of and attitudes to the issues surrounding academic publishing and Open Access. This paper presents the results from this survey and compares them to the results from a much larger survey on the same topic from the Study of Open Access Publishing (SOAP). The responses from both surveys show very positive attitudes to the Open Access publishing route; perhaps the most challenging statistic from the EACR survey is that 88% of respondents believe that publicly funded research should be made available to be read and used without access barriers As a conclusion and invitation to further discussion, this paper also contributes to the debate around subscription and Open Access publishing, supporting the case for accelerating the progress towards Open Access publishing of cancer research articles as a particularly supportive way of assisting all researchers to make unhindered progress with their work. PMID:22276063

  12. COMPARISON OF THREE METHODS TO PROJECT FUTURE BASELINE CARBON EMISSIONS IN TEMPERATE RAINFOREST, CURINANCO, CHILE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patrick Gonzalez; Antonio Lara; Jorge Gayoso; Eduardo Neira; Patricio Romero; Leonardo Sotomayor

    2005-07-14

    evaluate the three methods to project future baseline carbon emissions. Extrapolation from Landsat change detection uses the observed rate of change to estimate change in the near future. Geomod is a software program that models the geographic distribution of change using a defined rate of change. FRCA is an integrated spatial analysis of forest inventory, biodiversity, and remote sensing that produces estimates of forest biodiversity and forest carbon density, spatial data layers of future probabilities of reforestation and deforestation, and a projection of future baseline forest carbon sequestration and emissions for an ecologically-defined area of analysis. For the period 1999-2012, extrapolation from Landsat change detection estimated a loss of 5000 ha and 520,000 t carbon from closed natural forest; Geomod modeled a loss of 2500 ha and 250 000 t; FRCA projected a loss of 4700 {+-} 100 ha and 480,000 t (maximum 760,000 t, minimum 220,000 t). Concerning labor time, extrapolation for Landsat required 90 actual days or 120 days normalized to Bachelor degree level wages; Geomod required 240 actual days or 310 normalized days; FRCA required 110 actual days or 170 normalized days. Users experienced difficulties with an MS-DOS version of Geomod before turning to the Idrisi version. For organizations with limited time and financing, extrapolation from Landsat change provides a cost-effective method. Organizations with more time and financing could use FRCA, the only method where that calculates the deforestation rate as a dependent variable rather than assuming a deforestation rate as an independent variable. This research indicates that best practices for the projection of baseline carbon emissions include integration of forest inventory and remote sensing tasks from the beginning of the analysis, definition of an analysis area using ecological characteristics, use of standard and widely used geographic information systems (GIS) software applications, and the use of species

  13. Value generation of future CSP projects in North Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kost, Christoph; Engelken, Maximilian; Schlegl, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    This paper discusses the value generation potential for local and international industry in different development scenarios of the concentrating solar power (CSP) market in North Africa until 2030. It analyzes the economic impact resulting from the participation of North African and European companies during construction and operation of CSP plants. The assessment is based on a self-developed solar technologies market development model (STMD) that includes economic and technical requirements and constraints for the creation of a local CSP market. In-depth interviews with industry stakeholders provide specific input, validate the calculations and complement the quantitative model results and conclusions. Long-term potential for locally generated revenues from CSP plant construction are modeled and lead to a share of local revenues of up to 60%. Potential market size of solar power plants in North Africa could reach total revenues of 120 Billion euros and thus demand for components and services contribute to national gross domestic products significantly. Recommendations are given for regional industry cooperation and policy actions for the support of local and international CSP industry in North Africa in order to improve the investment environment and growth of renewable energies in the region. - Highlights: ►New economic model to evaluate value generation of CSP take-off in North Africa. ►CSP components are assessed regarding their potentials to be produced locally. ►Potential for locally generated revenues of CSP plants: 60% of total value. ►Socio-economic impacts of RE projects become more relevant to investment decisions.

  14. Systemic Antifungal Agents: Current Status and Projected Future Developments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seyedmousavi, S.; Rafati, H.; Ilkit, M.; Tolooe, A.; Hedayati, M.T.; Verweij, P.E.

    2017-01-01

    By definition, an antifungal agent is a drug that selectively destroys fungal pathogens with minimal side effects to the host. Despite an increase in the prevalence of fungal infections particularly in immunocompromised patients, only a few classes of antifungal drugs are available for therapy, and

  15. Role and future subjects of support project 'research activity on radiation etc. by high school students'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iimoto, Takeshi; Fujimoto, Noboru; Nakamura, Takashi

    2014-01-01

    This is a report of the project of MEXT(The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology) to support high school students researching radiation etc. This subject research consists of an exchange meeting, independence research, and a presentation meeting of the results. Media introduced the project and this was a very reputable project. However, regrettably this support project was broken off in the business year of 2012. In this document, the outline of the support project for seven years is introduced and the possibility of future deployment is discussed. (author)

  16. The impact of ageing and changing utilization patterns on future cardiovascular drug expenditure: a pharmacoepidemiological projection approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kildemoes, Helle Wallach; Andersen, Morten; Støvring, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    To develop a method for projecting the impact of ageing and changing drug utilization patterns on future drug expenditure.......To develop a method for projecting the impact of ageing and changing drug utilization patterns on future drug expenditure....

  17. Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P; Kunst, Anton E

    2011-04-01

    Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild disability is not. Using data from the GLOBE study (Gezondheid en Levensomstandigheden Bevolking Eindhoven en omstreken), the association of three levels of self-reported disabilities in activities of daily living with age and proximity to death was studied using logistic regression models. Regression estimates were used to estimate the number of life years with disability for life spans of 75 and 85 years. Odds ratios of 0.976 (not significant) for mild disability, 1.137 for moderate disability, and 1.231 for severe disability showed a stronger effect of proximity to death for more severe levels of disability. A 10-year increase of life span was estimated to result in a substantial expansion of mild disability (4.6 years) compared with a small expansion of moderate (0.7 years) and severe (0.9 years) disability. These findings support the theory of a dynamic equilibrium. Projections of the future burden of disability could be substantially improved by connecting to this theory and incorporating information on proximity to death. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Futures project anticipates changes and challenges facing forests of the northern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen R. Shifley; W. Keith Moser; Michael E. Goerndt; Nianfu Song; Mark D. Nelson; David J. Nowak; Patrick D. Miles; Brett J. Butler; Ryan D. DeSantis; Francisco X. Aguilar; Brian G. Tavernia

    2014-01-01

    The Northern Forest Futures Project aims to reveal how today's trends and choices are likely to change the future forest landscape in the northeastern and midwestern United States. The research is focused on the 20-state quadrant bounded by Maine, Maryland, Missouri, and Minnesota. This area, which encompasses most of the Central Hardwood Forest region, is the...

  19. Mine Clearance Industry: Background, Geography, Funding, Analysis and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-12-01

    and against the Zulu .39 In Sudan, during the defense of Khartoum, British officers believed that landmines were an effective form of defense.40...parties from attack during the Zulu Wars (1879).42 During the Boer War (1899-1902) the British used mines to protect a railway; a Royal Engineer...to fight the landmine problem was the Hazardous Area Life-Support Organization (HALO Trust) in 1988. The founder of HALO Trust was former British

  20. Virtual Mockup test based on computational science and engineering. Near future technology projected by JSPS-RFTFADVENTURE project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshimura, Shinobu

    2001-01-01

    The ADVENTURE project began on August, 1997, as a project in the computational science' field of JSPS-RFTFADVENTURE project, and is progressed as five year project. In this project, by using versatile parallel computer environment such as PC cluster, super parallel computer, and so on , to solve an arbitrary shape of actual dynamical equation by using 10 to 100 million freedom class mode under maintaining a general use analytical capacity agreeable with present general use computational mechanics system, further development of a large-scale parallel computational mechanics system (ADVENTURE system) capable of carrying out an optimization design on shapes, physical properties, loading conditions, and so on is performed. Here was scoped, after outlining on background of R and D on ADVENTURE system and its features, on near future virtual mockup test forecast from it. (G.K.)

  1. Projected changes in the future distribution and production of sessile oak forests near the xeric limit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulyás, Krisztina; Berki, Imre; Veperdi, Gábor

    2017-04-01

    As a result of regional climate change, most European countries are experiencing an increase in mean annual temperature and CO2 concentration and a decrease in mean annual precipitation. In low-elevation areas in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is a limiting factor, the projected climate change threatens the health, production, and potential distribution of forest ecosystems. The intensive summer droughts and commonly occurring extreme weather events create negative influences that cause health declines, changes in yield potential, and tree mortality. Due to the observed damages, attention has been focused on these problems. The impacts of climatic extremes cause difficulties in forest management; these difficulties occur more frequently in Hungary, which is a region that is the most sensitive to climatic extremes. Regional climate model simulations project that the frequency of extremely high temperatures and long-term dry periods will increase; both of these factors have negative effects on future tree species distribution and production. Thus, the aim of our study is to utilize the sessile oak (Quercus petraea) as a climate indicator tree species to investigate potential future distribution and estimate changes in growth trends. For future spatial distribution, we used the Fuzzy membership distribution model in a new Decision Support System (DSS) which was developed for the Hungarian forestry and agricultural sectors. Through study techniques we can employ DSS, which contains various environmental layers (topography, vegetation, past and projected future climate, soils, and hydrology), to create probability distribution maps. The results, based on 12 regional climate model simulations (www.ensembles-eu.org), show that the area of sessile oak forests is shrinking continuously and will continue to do so to the end of the 21st century. For future production estimations, we analysed intensive long-term growth monitoring network plots that were established in

  2. Status and future of food irradiation research project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujimaki, Masao

    1982-01-01

    The first part of the report presented the results of wholesomeness evaluation of the irradiated potato, onion, rice and wheat by Organization of the National Research Programme on Food Irradiation which conducts food irradiation in Japan. The second part dealt with the wholesomeness evaluation of food irradiation by the joint specialist conference of FAO, IAEA and WHO. It was concluded that irradiation of a maximum mean of 10 KGy or less was unconditionally permissible for every food item, not requiring a toxicity test. However, the relationship between irradiation techniques and economic feasibility, wholesomeness of high dose irradiation, the human effect of use of irradiated food item, food chemistry and nutritional problems remain to be examined. (Chibe, N.)

  3. Projecting future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K.; Flanagan, S.; Rourke, O.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

    2011-12-01

    In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial recent progress has been made to estimate the biomass loss and resulting carbon emissions caused by hurricanes impacting the U.S. Additionally, efforts to evaluate the net effects of hurricanes on the regional carbon balance have demonstrated the importance of viewing large disturbance events in the broader context of recovery from a mosaic of past events. Viewed over sufficiently long time scales and large spatial scales, regrowth from previous storms may largely offset new emissions; however, changes in number, strength or spatial distribution of extreme disturbance events will result in changes to the equilibrium state of the ecosystem and have the potential to result in a lasting carbon source or sink. Many recent studies have linked climate change to changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. In this study, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by scenarios of future hurricane activity based on historic activity and future climate projections, to evaluate how changes in hurricane frequency, intensity and spatial distribution could affect regional carbon storage and flux over the coming century. We find a non-linear response where increased storm activity reduces standing biomass stocks reducing the impacts of future events. This effect is highly dependent on the spatial pattern and repeat interval of future hurricane activity. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests.

  4. Project report about the motives of the future law project 'security and nuclear clearness'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-11-01

    This project aims to prevent the hazards in relation with nuclear activities for man and his environment, as well to reinforce information on risks associated to these activities and on measures taken to avoid them. (N.C.)

  5. Projecting future summer mortality due to ambient ozone concentration and temperature changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae Young; Lee, Soo Hyun; Hong, Sung-Chul; Kim, Ho

    2017-05-01

    Climate change is known to affect the human health both directly by increased heat stress and indirectly by altering environments, particularly by altering the rate of ambient ozone formation in the atmosphere. Thus, the risks of climate change may be underestimated if the effects of both future temperature and ambient ozone concentrations are not considered. This study presents a projection of future summer non-accidental mortality in seven major cities of South Korea during the 2020s (2016-2025) and 2050s (2046-2055) considering changes in temperature and ozone concentration, which were predicted by using the HadGEM3-RA model and Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System, respectively. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) were considered. The result shows that non-accidental summer mortality will increase by 0.5%, 0.0%, 0.4%, and 0.4% in the 2020s, 1.9%, 1.5%, 1.2%, and 4.4% in the 2050s due to temperature change compared to the baseline mortality during 2001-2010, under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the mortality will increase by 0.0%, 0.5%, 0.0%, and 0.5% in the 2020s, and 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.6% in the 2050s due to ozone concentration change. The projection result shows that the future summer morality in South Korea is increased due to changes in both temperature and ozone, and the magnitude of ozone-related increase is much smaller than that of temperature-related increase, especially in the 2050s.

  6. Past and future of the Austrian snow cover - results from the CC-Snow project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strasser, Ulrich; Marke, Thomas; Hanzer, Florian; Ragg, Hansjörg; Kleindienst, Hannes; Wilcke, Renate; Gobiet, Andreas

    2013-04-01

    This study has the goal to simulate the evolution of the Austrian snow cover from 1971 to 2050 by means of a coupled modelling scheme, and to estimate the effect of climate change on the evolution of the natural snow cover. The model outcomes are interepreted with focus on both the future natural snow conditions, and the effects on winter skiing tourism. Therefore the regional temperature-index snow model SNOWREG is applied, providing snow maps with a spatial resolution of 250 m. The model is trained by means of assimilating local measurements and observed natural snow cover patterns. Meteorological forcing consists of the output of four realizations of the ENSEMBLES project for the A1B emission scenario. The meteorological variables are downscaled and error corrected with a quantile based empirical-statistical method on a daily time basis. The control simulation is 1971-2000, and the scenario simulation 2021-2050. Spatial interpolation is performed on the basis of parameter-elevation relations. We compare the four different global/regional climate model combinations and their effect on the snow modelling, and we explain the patterns of the resulting snow cover by means of regional climatological characteristics. The provinces Tirol and Styria serve as test regions, being typical examples for the two climatic subregions of Austria. To support the interpretation of the simulation results we apply indicators which enable to define meaningful measures for the comparison of the different periods and regions. Results show that the mean duration of the snow cover will decrease by 15 to 30 days per winter season, mostly in elevations between 2000 and 2500 m. Above 3000 m the higher winter precipitation can compensate this effect, and mean snow cover duration may even slightly increase. We also investigate the local scale by application of the physically based mountain snow model AMUNDSEN. This model is capable of producing 50 m resolution output maps for indicators

  7. Projecting the self into the future in individuals with schizophrenia: a preliminary cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffard, Stéphane; Bortolon, Catherine; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Gardes, Jeanne; Gely-Nargeot, Marie-Christine; Capdevielle, Delphine; Van der Linden, Martial

    2016-07-01

    The ability to project oneself into the future contributes to development and maintenance of a coherent sense of identity. If recent research has revealed that schizophrenia is associated with difficulties envisioning the future, little is known about patients' future self-representations. In this study, 27 participants with schizophrenia and 26 healthy controls were asked to simulate mental representations of plausible and highly significant future events (self-defining future projections, SDFPs) that they anticipate to happen in their personal future. Main results showed that schizophrenia patients had difficulties in reflecting on the broader meaning and implications of imagined future events. In addition, and contrary to our hypothesis, a large majority of SDFPs in schizophrenia patients were positive events, including achievements, relationship, and leisure contents. Interestingly, patients and controls did not differ on the perceived probability that these events will occur in the future. Our results suggest that schizophrenia patients have an exaggerated positive perception of their future selves. Together, these findings lend support to the idea that past and future self-defining representations have both similar and distinct characteristics in schizophrenia.

  8. Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

    2008-12-01

    Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise

  9. Calculation Method for the Projection of Future Spent Nuclear Fuel Discharges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    B. McLeod

    2002-01-01

    This report describes the calculation method developed for the projection of future utility spent nuclear fuel (SNF) discharges in regard to their timing, quantity, burnup, and initial enrichment. This projection method complements the utility-supplied RW-859 data on historic discharges and short-term projections of SNF discharges by providing long-term projections that complete the total life cycle of discharges for each of the current U.S. nuclear power reactors. The method was initially developed in mid-1999 to update the SNF discharge projection associated with the 1995 RW-859 utility survey (CRWMS M and O 1996). and was further developed as described in Rev. 00 of this report (CRWMS M and O 2001a). Primary input to the projection of SNF discharges is the utility projection of the next five discharges from each nuclear unit, which is provided via the revised final version of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 1998 RW-859 utility survey (EIA 2000a). The projection calculation method is implemented via a set of Excel 97 spreadsheets. These calculations provide the interface between receipt of the utility five-discharge projections that are provided in the RW-859 survey, and the delivery of projected life-cycle SNF discharge quantities and characteristics in the format requisite for performing logistics analysis to support design of the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS). Calculation method improvements described in this report include the addition of a reactor-specific maximum enrichment-based discharge burnup limit. This limit is the consequence of the enrichment limit, currently 5 percent. which is imposed as a Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) license condition on nuclear fuel fabrication plants. In addition, the calculation method now includes the capability for projecting future nuclear plant power upratings, consistent with many such recent plant uprates and the prospect of additional future uprates. Finally. this report

  10. A modelling framework to project future climate change impacts on streamflow variability and extremes in the West River, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Fei

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a hydrological modelling framework was introduced to assess the climate change impacts on future river flow in the West River basin, China, especially on streamflow variability and extremes. The modelling framework includes a delta-change method with the quantile-mapping technique to construct future climate forcings on the basis of observed meteorological data and the downscaled climate model outputs. This method is able to retain the signals of extreme weather events, as projected by climate models, in the constructed future forcing scenarios. Fed with the historical and future forcing data, a large-scale hydrologic model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC was executed for streamflow simulations and projections at daily time scales. A bootstrapping resample approach was used as an indirect alternative to test the equality of means, standard deviations and the coefficients of variation for the baseline and future streamflow time series, and to assess the future changes in flood return levels. The West River basin case study confirms that the introduced modelling framework is an efficient effective tool to quantify streamflow variability and extremes in response to future climate change.

  11. Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

    2017-08-01

    Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

  12. Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

    2017-08-01

    Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

  13. Monitoring the effectiveness evaluation of investment projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skopin Alex O.

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The article raised the question of monitoring regulatory evaluation of the effectiveness of regional investment projects. This is justified by the fact that the current regulatory framework defined indicators for measuring the effectiveness of regional investment projects, but these figures are usually used only at the design stage of the project, an interim assessment of the effectiveness of a sufficiently simplified and based on the level of exploration investment.

  14. The Project Team: Features, Effectiveness and Leadership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramona-Elena GABREA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The project team that is responsible for providing flexibility and innovation to this structure in order to enable organizations to remain successful (1. The very nature of the project team's work underpins a collective task much more complex than that assumed by other types of work teams. The aim of this paper is to explore the main factors that determine the project team effectiveness. The research methodology was the literature review. The main finding reveals that the organizational structure of projects and the project team should not be considered as a panacea for all problems of organizational effectiveness.

  15. The German joint research project "concepts for future gravity satellite missions"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reubelt, Tilo; Sneeuw, Nico; Fichter, Walter; Müller, Jürgen

    2010-05-01

    Within the German joint research project "concepts for future gravity satellite missions", funded by the Geotechnologies programme of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, options and concepts for future satellite missions for precise (time-variable) gravity field recovery are investigated. The project team is composed of members from science and industry, bringing together experts in geodesy, satellite systems, metrology, sensor technology and control systems. The majority of team members already contributed to former gravity missions. The composition of the team guarantees that not only geodetic aspects and objectives are investigated, but also technological and financial constraints are considered. Conversely, satellite, sensor and system concepts are developed and improved in a direct exchange with geodetic and scientific claims. The project aims to develop concepts for both near and mid-term future satellite missions, taking into account e.g. advanced satellite formations and constellations, improved orbit design, innovative metrology and sensor systems and advances in satellite systems.

  16. Electroweak effective couplings for future precision experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jegerlehner, F.

    2011-01-01

    The leading hadronic effects in electroweak theory derive from vacuum polarization which are non-perturbative hadronic contributions to the running of the gauge couplings, the electromagnetic α em (s)and the SU(2) L coupling α 2 (s). I will report on my recent package alphaQED, which besides the effective fine structure constant α em (s) also allows for a fairly precise calculation of the SU(2) L gauge coupling α 2 (s). I will briefly review the role, future requirements and possibilities. Applied together with the R had package by Harlander and Steinhauser, the package allows to calculate all SM running couplings as well as running sin 2 Θ versions with state-of-the-art accuracy.

  17. Electroweak effective couplings for future precision experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jegerlehner, F.; Humboldt-Universitaet, Berlin

    2011-07-01

    The leading hadronic effects in electroweak theory derive from vacuum polarization which are non-perturbative hadronic contributions to the running of the gauge couplings, the electromagnetic α em (s) and the SU(2) L coupling α 2 (s). I report on my recent package alphaQED [1], which besides the effective fine structure constant α em (s) also allows for a fairly precise calculation of the SU(2) L gauge coupling α 2 (s). I will briefly review the role, future requirements and possibilities. Applied together with the Rhad package by Harlander and Steinhauser [2], the package allows to calculate all SM running couplings as well as running sin 2 Θ versions with state-of-the-art accuracy. (orig.)

  18. Web-based access, aggregation, and visualization of future climate projections with emphasis on agricultural assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol

    2018-01-01

    Access to climate and spatial datasets by non-specialists is restricted by technical barriers involving hardware, software and data formats. We discuss an open-source online tool that facilitates downloading the climate data from the global circulation models used by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. The tool also offers temporal and spatial aggregation capabilities for incorporating future climate scenarios in applications where spatial aggregation is important. We hope that streamlined access to these data facilitates analysis of climate related issues while considering the uncertainties derived from future climate projections and temporal aggregation choices.

  19. Acidic deposition: State of science and technology. Report 14. Methods for projecting future changes in surface water acid-base chemistry. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thornton, K.W.; Marmorek, D.; Ryan, P.F.; Heltcher, K.; Robinson, D.

    1990-09-01

    The objectives of the report are to: critically evaluate methods for projecting future effects of acidic deposition on surface water acid-base chemistry; review and evaluate techniques and procedures for analyzing projection uncertainty; review procedures for estimating regional lake and stream population attributes; review the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Direct/Delayed Response Project (DDRP) methodology for projecting the effects of acidic deposition on future changes in surface water acid-base chemistry; and present the models, uncertainty estimators, population estimators, and proposed approach selected to project the effects of acidic deposition on future changes in surface water acid-base chemistry in the NAPAP 1990 Integrated Assessment and discuss the selection rationale

  20. Balancing energy, development and climate priorities in India. Current trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Dhar, S.; Halsnaes, K.

    2007-09-01

    This report gives a short introduction to the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing countries. Furthermore, the report analyses Indian energy, development and climate change, followed by an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. The focus is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. (BA)

  1. Flood Frequency Analysis of Future Climate Projections in the Cache Creek Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, I.; Trihn, T.; Ishida, K.; Jang, S.; Kavvas, E.; Kavvas, M. L.

    2014-12-01

    Effects of climate change on hydrologic flow regimes, particularly extreme events, necessitate modeling of future flows to best inform water resources management. Future flow projections may be modeled through the joint use of carbon emission scenarios, general circulation models and watershed models. This research effort ran 13 simulations for carbon emission scenarios (taken from the A1, A2 and B1 families) over the 21st century (2001-2100) for the Cache Creek watershed in Northern California. Atmospheric data from general circulation models, CCSM3 and ECHAM5, were dynamically downscaled to a 9 km resolution using MM5, a regional mesoscale model, before being input into the physically based watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model. Ensemble mean and standard deviation of simulated flows describe the expected hydrologic system response. Frequency histograms and cumulative distribution functions characterize the range of hydrologic responses that may occur. The modeled flow results comprise a dataset suitable for time series and frequency analysis allowing for more robust system characterization, including indices such as the 100 year flood return period. These results are significant for water quality management as the Cache Creek watershed is severely impacted by mercury pollution from historic mining activities. Extreme flow events control mercury fate and transport affecting the downstream water bodies of the Sacramento River and Sacramento- San Joaquin Delta which provide drinking water to over 25 million people.

  2. The Effects of Projected Future Demand Including Very Light Jet Air-Taxi Operations on U.S. National Airspace System Delays as a Function of Next Generation Air Transportation System Airspace Capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jerry; Viken, Jeff; Dollyhigh, Samuel; Trani, Antonio; Baik, Hojong; Hinze, Nicholas; Ashiabor, Senanu

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the results from a study which investigates the potential effects of the growth in air traffic demand including projected Very Light Jet (VLJ) air-taxi operations adding to delays experienced by commercial passenger air transportation in the year 2025. The geographic region studied is the contiguous United States (U.S.) of America, although international air traffic to and from the U.S. is included. The main focus of this paper is to determine how much air traffic growth, including VLJ air-taxi operations will add to enroute airspace congestion and determine what additional airspace capacity will be needed to accommodate the expected demand. Terminal airspace is not modeled and increased airport capacity is assumed.

  3. Projected near-future levels of temperature and pCO2 reduce coral fertilization success.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Albright

    Full Text Available Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2 are projected to contribute to a 1.1-6.4°C rise in global average surface temperatures and a 0.14-0.35 reduction in the average pH of the global surface ocean by 2100. If realized, these changes are expected to have negative consequences for reef-building corals including increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching and reduced rates of calcification and reef accretion. Much less is known regarding the independent and combined effects of temperature and pCO2 on critical early life history processes such as fertilization. Here we show that increases in temperature (+3°C and pCO2 (+400 µatm projected for this century negatively impact fertilization success of a common Indo-Pacific coral species, Acropora tenuis. While maximum fertilization did not differ among treatments, the sperm concentration required to obtain 50% of maximum fertilization increased 6- to 8- fold with the addition of a single factor (temperature or CO2 and nearly 50- fold when both factors interact. Our results indicate that near-future changes in temperature and pCO2 narrow the range of sperm concentrations that are capable of yielding high fertilization success in A. tenuis. Increased sperm limitation, in conjunction with adult population decline, may have severe consequences for coral reproductive success. Impaired sexual reproduction will further challenge corals by inhibiting population recovery and adaptation potential.

  4. Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

    2011-01-01

    Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

  5. Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-12-01

    This report is the first in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multiyear research project to explore widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. More specifically, the EFS is designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in all major economic sectors as well as electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and the economic and environmental implications of widespread electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multiyear duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report released on its own timeframe.

  6. Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

  7. The implications of regional and national demographic projections for future GMS costs in Ireland through to 2026.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Conway, Aisling

    2014-10-21

    As the health services in Ireland have become more resource-constrained, pressure has increased to reduce public spending on community drug schemes such as General Medical Services (GMS) drug prescribing and to understand current and future trends in prescribing. The GMS scheme covers approximately 37% of the Irish population in 2011 and entitles them, inter alia, to free prescription drugs and appliances. This paper projects the effects of future changes in population, coverage, claims rates and average claims cost on GMS costs in Ireland.

  8. Scheduling projects with multiskill learning effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zha, Hong; Zhang, Lianying

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the project scheduling problem with multiskill learning effect. A new model is proposed to deal with the problem, where both autonomous and induced learning are considered. In order to obtain the optimal solution, a genetic algorithm with specific encoding and decoding schemes is introduced. A numerical example is used to illustrate the proposed model. The computational results show that the learning effect cannot be neglected in project scheduling. By means of determining the level of induced learning, the project manager can balance the project makespan with total cost.

  9. Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

    2007-01-01

    -90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...

  10. Present status and future project on hadron physics with KEK proton synchrotron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masaike, Akira

    1984-01-01

    Recent experimental results on hadron physics using a 12 GeV proton synchrotron at KEK are presented. Several future projects which have been proposed as a post-shutdown program from 1985 including hypernuclear physics, physics with polarized beam and heavy ion beam are also reported. (author)

  11. History of optical theory of reflecting telescopes and implications for future projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Raymond N.

    1997-03-01

    This contribution, The History of Optical Theory of Reflecting Telescopes and Implications for Future Projects, is a shortened form of the Karl Schwarzschild lecture given in Bochum in September 1993. Some material has been added from an invited paper given in Padua in December 1992. For a full account, with figures and tables, the reader is referred to these two papers.

  12. Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Kunst, Anton E.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild

  13. Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Klijs (Bart); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan); A.E. Kunst (Anton)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractObjective Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This paper tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated to proximity to death

  14. Projecting future mortality in the Netherlands taking into account mortality delay and smoking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, F.; de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    Estimates of future mortality often prove inaccurate as conventional extrapolative mortality projection methods do not capture the impact of smoking nor the mortality delay: the shift in the age-at-death distribution towards older ages. The added value of incorporating information on smoking into

  15. Innovation projects and visions on the future : Ambition and commitment in the Agropark case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoes, Anne Charlotte; Regeer, Barbara; Zweekhorst, Marjolein

    2012-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Dutch agricultural policy focuses on changing the agricultural sector into a more sustainable sector. In this article we explore an Agropark visioning initiative and four Agropark innovation projects to provide further understanding in how visions on the future influence innovation

  16. Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwer, L.M.

    2013-01-01

    Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but

  17. Planned Change in Future Models of Project Follow Through: A Concept Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpkins, Edward; Brown, Asa

    The three chapters included in this paper establish a basis for organizing future implementations of Project Follow Through. Specifically, chapter 1 identifies four planning objectives for coordinating such programs. Emphasis is given to the need to focus on one fundamental, pervasive variable possibly accounting for program success: time…

  18. Outlook for coastal plain forests: a subregional report from the Southern Forest Futures Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kier Klepzig; Richard Shelfer; Zanethia Choice

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Coastal Plain consists of seven sections: the Northern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic, Peninsular Florida, Southern Gulf, Middle Gulf-East, Middle Gulf-West, and Western Gulf. It covers a large area, consists of a diverse array of habitats, and supports a diverse array of uses. This report presents forecasts from the Southern Forest Futures Project that are...

  19. Future Projections and Consequences of the Changing North American Carbon Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Cooley, S. R.; Moore, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    The rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily due to human-caused fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere. Nevertheless, today's atmospheric CO2 levels are higher than at any time in the past 800,000 years. Over the past decade, there has been considerable effort to understand how carbon cycle changes interact with, and influence, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and thus climate. Here, we summarize the key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and the consequences of these changes as reported in Chapters 17 and 19 of the 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, plant growth, and water-use efficiency. Together, these may lead to changes in vegetation composition, carbon storage, hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. In the ocean, increased uptake of atmospheric CO2 causes ocean acidification, which leads to changes in reproduction, survival, and growth of many marine species. These direct physiological responses to acidification are likely to have indirect ecosystem-scale consequences that we are just beginning to understand. In all environments, the effects of rising CO2 also interact with other global changes. For example, nutrient availability can set limits on growth and a warming climate alters carbon uptake depending on a number of other factors. As a result, there is low confidence in the future evolution of the North American carbon cycle. For example, models project that terrestrial ecosystems could continue to be a net sink (of up to 1.19 PgC yr-1) or switch to a net source of carbon to the atmosphere (of up to 0.60 PgC yr-1) by the end of the century under business-as-usual emission scenarios. And, while North American coastal areas have historically been a sink of carbon (e.g., 2.6 to 3.5 PgC since 1995) and are projected to continue to take up

  20. Future Projection of Droughts over South Korea Using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byung Sik Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, a method widely used to analyze droughts related to climate change, does not consider variables related to temperature and is limited because it cannot consider changes in hydrological balance, such as evapotranspiration from climate change. If we were to consider only the future increase in precipitation from climate change, droughts may decrease. However, because usable water can diminish from an increase in evapotranspiration, it is important to research on projected droughts considering the amount of evapotranspiration along with projecting and evaluating potential droughts considering the impact of climate change. As such, this study evaluated the occurrence of droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI as a newly conceptualized drought index that is similar to SPI but includes the temperature variability. We extracted simulated future precipitation and temperature data (2011 - 2099 from the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP climate change scenario of IPCC AR5 to evaluate the impact of future climate change on the occurrence of droughts of South Korea. We analyzed the ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation of meteorological observatories nationwide. In addition, we calculated the SPEI related to drought in the process to evaluate the future occurrence of droughts of South Korea. To confirm validity of SPEI results, extreme indices were analyzed. This resulted in the notion that as we go further into the future, the precipitation increases. But because of an increase in evapotranspiration also from a rise in temperature and continued dryness, the severity of droughts is projected to exacerbate.

  1. Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zongci Zhao

    2011-01-01

    @@ As we know,the projections of future climate change including impacts and strategies in the IPCC Assessment Reports were based on global climate models with scenarios on various human activities.Global climate model simulations provide key inputs for climate change assessments. In this study,the main objective is to analyze if the projections of fu-ture climate change by global climate models are reli-able.Several workshops have been held on this issue,such as the IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi-model climate projections in January of 2010 (presided by the co-chairs of the IPCC WGI and WGII AR5),and the workshop of the combined global climate model group held by NCAR in June of 2010.

  2. Spillover effects in energy futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, S.X.; Tamvakis, M.N.

    2001-01-01

    Price discovery in crude oil and refined oil products has been extensively undertaken in organised futures markets for over a decade now. There are two dominant such markets today: the first one in the New York Mercantile Exchange; and the second in London's International Petroleum Exchange. With the demise of OPEC as the leading price setter for crude and products, NYMEX light sweet crude and Brent crude have usurped the role of benchmark grades for price setting. To date considerable work has been done to scrutinise the degree to which these two markets price efficiently, but little with regard to the way the two markets interact. Participants in these markets move with relative ease from one market to the other and usually take positions in both of them. It is of interest, therefore, to investigate the information transmission mechanism by looking at spillover effects and, perhaps, identify which market is the true price leader. This paper is a first attempt to look at such a problem in the energy market, although similar studies have been done on stock market indices. It is found that substantial spillover effects do exist when both markets are trading simultaneously, although IPE morning prices seem to be considerably affected by the close of the previous day on NYMEX

  3. The current shortage and future surplus of doctors: a projection of the future growth of the Japanese medical workforce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takata, Hideaki; Nagata, Hiroshi; Nogawa, Hiroki; Tanaka, Hiroshi

    2011-05-27

    Starting in the late 1980s, the Japanese government decreased the number of students accepted into medical school each year in order to reduce healthcare spending. The result of this policy is a serious shortage of doctors in Japan today, which has become a social problem in recent years. In an attempt to solve this problem, the Japanese government decided in 2007 to increase the medical student quota from 7625 to 8848. Furthermore, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), Japan's ruling party after the 2009 election, promised in their manifesto to increase the medical student quota to 1.5 times what it was in 2007, in order to raise the number of medical doctors to more than 3.0 per 1000 persons. It should be noted, however, that this rapid increase in the medical student quota may bring about a serious doctor surplus in the future, especially because the population of Japan is decreasing.The purpose of this research is to project the future growth of the Japanese medical doctor workforce from 2008 to 2050 and to forecast whether the proposed additional increase in the student quota will cause a doctor surplus. Simulation modeling of the Japanese medical workforce. Even if the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ fails, the number of practitioners is projected to increase from 286 699 (2.25 per 1000 persons) in 2008 to 365 533 (over the national numerical goal of 3.0 per 1000) in 2024. The number of practitioners per 1000 persons is projected to further increase to 3.10 in 2025, to 3.71 in 2035, and to 4.69 in 2050. If the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ is realized, the total workforce is projected to rise to 392 331 (3.29 per 1000 persons) in 2025, 464 296 (4.20 per 1,000 persons) in 2035, and 545 230 (5.73 per 1000 persons) in 2050. The plan to increase the medical student quota will bring about a serious doctor surplus in the long run.

  4. Current status and future prospects of Japanese national project on coated conductor development and its applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiohara, Y.; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T.; Yamada, Y.

    2008-09-01

    Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of Ic and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose Ic value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO 2. About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO 2 doping showed a high Ic value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high Ic value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high Ic values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The Ic × L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current-limiters and cryocoolers. Some of the new themes already revealed the

  5. Current status and future prospects of Japanese national project on coated conductor development and its applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shiohara, Y. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Shinonome 1-10-13, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-0062 (Japan)], E-mail: shiohara@istec.or.jp; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Shinonome 1-10-13, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-0062 (Japan); Yamada, Y. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Nagoya Coated Conductor Center, 2-4-1, Mutsuno, Atsuta-ku, Nagoya 456-8587 (Japan)

    2008-09-15

    Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of I{sub c} and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose I{sub c} value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO{sub 2}. About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO{sub 2} doping showed a high I{sub c} value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high I{sub c} value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high I{sub c} values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The I{sub c} x L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current

  6. Current status and future prospects of Japanese national project on coated conductor development and its applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiohara, Y.; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T.; Yamada, Y.

    2008-01-01

    Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of I c and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose I c value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO 2 . About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO 2 doping showed a high I c value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high I c value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high I c values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The I c x L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current-limiters and cryocoolers. Some of the new themes already

  7. Pore Water Arsenic Dynamics in Rice Paddies Under Projected Future Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plaganas, M.; Wang, T.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.

    2016-12-01

    Rice is one of the staple crops in the world, with 50% of the global population eating rice daily. Many rice-producing regions of the world are irrigated with groundwater contaminated with arsenic (As), and in particular South and Southeast Asia, where geogenic As is leached into the groundwater. Use of groundwater pervasively high in As leads to subsequent accumulation in paddy soils. Arsenic, a toxic metalloid, also decreases rice productivity and further jeopardizes food security. Hence, rice agriculture is concerned with its productivity in a climate change impacted future and the particular impacts of arsenic on yields. However, past studies do not address the prevalence of As in paddy soils or its fate in the rhizosphere and ultimate impact on the plant. The objective of our study was to determine changes in pore water As dynamics in the rhizosphere of rice plants grown on As-contaminated paddy soil under climate conditions projected for the end of the century. In order to address this objective, we designed greenhouse chambers with today's climate and projected climate conditions for the year 2100, specifically 5°C increase in temperature and doubled concentration of atmospheric CO2. We hypothesize that the effects of climate change with these conditions will increase the mobility of As in the rhizosphere, and thus, decrease rice growth in As-bearing paddies more than, so far, expected. We examined pore water geochemistry including pH and As concentrations, and correlate that to the height of the plants. Furthermore, the dynamics of other elements in the pore water such as carbon, iron, sulfur, manganese, and silica are further evaluated for their effects on rice growth. Arsenic will have an impact on rice production and conditions induced by future climatic conditions need to be considered for food security. Considering that climate change will decrease the global agricultural output, we should urgently consider adapting our agricultural practices to aid

  8. FutureGen 2.0 Pipeline and Regional Carbon Capture Storage Project - Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burger, Chris [Patrick Engineering Inc., Lisle, IL (United States); Wortman, David [Patrick Engineering Inc., Lisle, IL (United States); Brown, Chris [Battelle Memorial Inst., Richland, WA (United States); Hassan, Syed [Gulf Interstate Engineering, Houston, TX (United States); Humphreys, Ken [Futuregen Industrial Alliance, Inc., Washington, D.C. (United States); Willford, Mark [Futuregen Industrial Alliance, Inc., Washington, D.C. (United States)

    2016-03-31

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) FutureGen 2.0 Program involves two projects: (1) the Oxy-Combustion Power Plant Project and (2) the CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project. This Final Technical Report is focused on the CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project. The FutureGen 2.0 CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project evolved from an initial siting and project definition effort in Phase I, into the Phase II activity consisting permitting, design development, the acquisition of land rights, facility design, and licensing and regulatory approvals. Phase II also progressed into construction packaging, construction procurement, and targeted early preparatory activities in the field. The CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project accomplishments were significant, and in some cases unprecedented. The engineering, permitting, legal, stakeholder, and commercial learnings substantially advance the nation’s understanding of commercial-scale CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers. Voluminous and significant information was obtained from the drilling and the testing program of the subsurface, and sophisticated modeling was performed that held up to a wide range of scrutiny. All designs progressed to the point of securing construction contracts or comfort letters attesting to successful negotiation of all contract terms and willing execution at the appropriate time all major project elements – pipeline, surface facilities, and subsurface – as well as operations. While the physical installation of the planned facilities did not proceed in part due to insufficient time to complete the project prior to the expiration of federal funding, the project met significant objectives prior to DOE’s closeout decision. Had additional time been available, there were no known, insurmountable obstacles that would have precluded successful construction and operation of the project. Due to the suspension of the project, site restoration activities were developed and the work was accomplished. The site restoration

  9. Future Projection of Ocean Wave Climate: Analysis of SST Impacts on Wave Climate Changes in the Western North Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Shimura, Tomoya; Mori, Nobuhito; Mase, Hajime

    2015-01-01

    Changes in ocean surface waves elicit a variety of impacts on coastal environments. To assess the future changes in the ocean surface wave climate, several future projections of global wave climate have been simulated in previous studies. However, previously there has been little discussion about the causes behind changes in the future wave climate and the differences between projections. The objective of this study is to estimate the future changes in mean wave climate and the sensitivity of...

  10. Intelum project: tackling the calorimetry challenge for future high-energy colliders

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2015-01-01

    Intelum is one of the CERN-coordinated projects funded under H2020. It aims to develop low-cost, radiation-hard scintillating and Cherenkov crystal and glass fibres for the next generation of calorimeter detectors for future high-energy experiments. This new technology could also have important applications in the medical imaging field.     Intelum project partners at the kick-off meeting held on 11 March at CERN.   Intelum is an H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Research and Innovation Staff Exchange (RISE) project coordinated by CERN. This project was initiated by the Crystal Clear Collaboration (CERN’s RD18 experiment), which has been developing inorganic scintillation materials for novel ionising-radiation detectors for 25 years. Intelum is an international consortium including fifteen institutes and companies from across western and eastern Europe, Japan and the USA, all of which are experts in crystal growth, scintillating mechanisms, radiation damage and dete...

  11. Projected future changes in vegetation in western North America in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaoyan, Jiang; Rauscher, Sara A.; Ringler, Todd D.; Lawrence, David M.; Williams, A. Park; Allen, Craig D.; Steiner, Allison L.; Cai, D. Michael; McDowell, Nate G.

    2013-01-01

    Rapid and broad-scale forest mortality associated with recent droughts, rising temperature, and insect outbreaks has been observed over western North America (NA). Climate models project additional future warming and increasing drought and water stress for this region. To assess future potential changes in vegetation distributions in western NA, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupled with its Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) was used under the future A2 emissions scenario. To better span uncertainties in future climate, eight sea surface temperature (SST) projections provided by phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were employed as boundary conditions. There is a broad consensus among the simulations, despite differences in the simulated climate trajectories across the ensemble, that about half of the needleleaf evergreen tree coverage (from 24% to 11%) will disappear, coincident with a 14% (from 11% to 25%) increase in shrubs and grasses by the end of the twenty-first century in western NA, with most of the change occurring over the latter half of the twenty-first century. The net impact is a ~6 GtC or about 50% decrease in projected ecosystem carbon storage in this region. The findings suggest a potential for a widespread shift from tree-dominated landscapes to shrub and grass-dominated landscapes in western NA because of future warming and consequent increases in water deficits. These results highlight the need for improved process-based understanding of vegetation dynamics, particularly including mortality and the subsequent incorporation of these mechanisms into earth system models to better quantify the vulnerability of western NA forests under climate change.

  12. Present status and future directions of the Mayo/IBM PACS project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Richard L.; Forbes, Glenn S.; Gehring, Dale G.; Salutz, James R.; Pavlicek, William

    1991-07-01

    This joint project began in 1988 and was motivated by the need to develop an alternative to the archival process in place at that time (magnetic tape) for magnetic resonance imaging and neurological computed tomography. In addition, this project was felt to be an important step in gaining the necessary clinical experience for the future implementation of various aspects of electronic imaging. The initial phase of the project was conceived and developed to prove the concept, test the fundamental components, and produce performance measurements for future work. The key functions of this phase centered on attachment of imaging equipment (GE Signa) and archival processes using a non-dedicated (institutionally supplied) local area network (LAN). Attachment of imaging equipment to the LAN was performed using commercially available devices (Ethernet, PS/2, Token Ring). Image data were converted to ACR/NEMA format with retention of the vendor specific header information. Performance measurements were encouraging and led to the design of following projects. The second phase has recently been concluded. The major features of this phase have been to greatly expand the network, put the network into clinical use, establish an efficient and useful viewing station, include diagnostic reports in the archive data, provide wide area network (WAN) capability via ISDN, and establish two-way real-time video between remote sites. This phase has heightened both departmental and institutional thought regarding various issues raised by electronic imaging. Much discussion regarding both present as well as future archival processes has occurred. The use of institutional LAN resources has proven to be adequate for the archival function examined thus far. Experiments to date have shown that use of dedicated resources will be necessary for retrieval activities at even a basic level. This report presents an overview of the background present status and future directions of the project.

  13. Human mortality effects of future concentrations of tropospheric ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    West, J.; Szopa, S.; Hauglustaine, D.A.

    2007-01-01

    Here we explore the effects of projected future changes in global ozone concentrations on premature human mortality, under three scenarios for 2030. We use daily surface ozone concentrations from a global atmospheric transport and chemistry model, and ozone-mortality relationships from daily time-series studies. The population-weighted annual average 8-h daily maximum ozone is projected to increase, relative to the present, in each of ten world regions under the SRES A2 scenario and the current legislation (CLE) scenario, with the largest growth in tropical regions, while decreases are projected in each region in the maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenario. Emission reductions in the CLE scenario, relative to A2, are estimated to reduce about 190,000 premature human mortalities globally in 2030, with the most avoided mortalities in Africa. The MFR scenario will avoid about 460,000 premature mortalities relative to A2 in 2030, and 270,000 relative to CLE, with the greatest reductions in South Asia. (authors)

  14. Computing the distribution of return levels of extreme warm temperatures for future climate projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pausader, M.; Parey, S.; Nogaj, M. [EDF/R and D, Chatou Cedex (France); Bernie, D. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2012-03-15

    In order to take into account uncertainties in the future climate projections there is a growing demand for probabilistic projections of climate change. This paper presents a methodology for producing such a probabilistic analysis of future temperature extremes. The 20- and 100-years return levels are obtained from that of the normalized variable and the changes in mean and standard deviation given by climate models for the desired future periods. Uncertainty in future change of these extremes is quantified using a multi-model ensemble and a perturbed physics ensemble. The probability density functions of future return levels are computed at a representative location from the joint probability distribution of mean and standard deviation changes given by the two combined ensembles of models. For the studied location, the 100-years return level at the end of the century is lower than 41 C with an 80% confidence. Then, as the number of model simulations is low to compute a reliable distribution, two techniques proposed in the literature (local pattern scaling and ANOVA) have been used to infer the changes in mean and standard deviation for the combinations of RCM and GCM which have not been run. The ANOVA technique leads to better results for the reconstruction of the mean changes, whereas the two methods fail to correctly infer the changes in standard deviation. As standard deviation change has a major impact on return level change, there is a need to improve the models and the different techniques regarding the variance changes. (orig.)

  15. Climate change adaptation accounting for huge uncertainties in future projections - the case of urban drainage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2015-04-01

    Hydrological design parameters, which are currently used in the guidelines for the design of urban drainage systems (Willems et al., 2013) have been revised, taking the Flanders region of Belgium as case study. The revision involved extrapolation of the design rainfall statistics, taking into account the current knowledge on future climate change trends till 2100. Uncertainties in these trend projections have been assessed after statistically analysing and downscaling by a quantile perturbation tool based on a broad ensemble set of climate model simulation results (44 regional + 69 global control-scenario climate model run combinations for different greenhouse gas scenarios). The impact results of the climate scenarios were investigated as changes to rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Thereafter, the climate scenarios and related changes in rainfall statistics were transferred to changes in flood frequencies of sewer systems and overflow frequencies of storage facilities. This has been done based on conceptual urban drainage models. Also the change in storage capacity required to exceed a given overflow return period, has been calculated for a range of return periods and infiltration or throughflow rates. These results were used on the basis of the revision of the hydraulic design rules of urban drainage systems. One of the major challenges while formulating these policy guidelines was the consideration of the huge uncertainties in the future climate change projections and impact assessments; see also the difficulties and pitfalls reported by the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage - Working group on urban rainfall (Willems et al., 2012). We made use of the risk concept, and found it a very useful approach to deal with the high uncertainties. It involves an impact study of the different climate projections, or - for practical reasons - a reduced set of climate scenarios tailored for the specific type of impact considered (urban floods in our

  16. Present and projected future mean radiant temperature for three European cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorsson, Sofia; Rayner, David; Lindberg, Fredrik; Monteiro, Ana; Katzschner, Lutz; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Campe, Sabrina; Katzschner, Antje; Konarska, Janina; Onomura, Shiho; Velho, Sara; Holmer, Björn

    2017-09-01

    Present-day and projected future changes in mean radiant temperature, T mrt in one northern, one mid-, and one southern European city (represented by Gothenburg, Frankfurt, and Porto), are presented, and the concept of hot spots is adopted. Air temperature, T a , increased in all cities by 2100, but changes in solar radiation due to changes in cloudiness counterbalanced or exacerbated the effects on T mrt. The number of days with high T mrt in Gothenburg was relatively unchanged at the end of the century (+1 day), whereas it more than doubled in Frankfurt and tripled in Porto. The use of street trees to reduce daytime radiant heat load was analyzed using hot spots to identify where trees could be most beneficial. Hot spots, although varying in intensity and frequency, were generally confined to near sunlit southeast-southwest facing walls, in northeast corner of courtyards, and in open spaces in all three cities. By adding trees in these spaces, the radiant heat load can be reduced, especially in spaces with no or few trees. A set of design principles for reducing the radiant heat load is outlined based on these findings and existing literature.

  17. SiC/SiC fuel cladding R and D Project 'SCARLET': Status and future plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kishimoto, Hirotatsu; Kohyama, Akira

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides the recent progress in SiC/SiC development towards early utilisation for LWRs based on NITE method. After the March 11 Disaster in East-Japan, ensuring safe technology for LWR became a top priority R and D in nuclear energy policy of Japan. Along this line, replacement of Zircaloy claddings with SiC/SiC based fuel cladding is becoming one of the most attractive options and a MEXT fund based project, SCARLET, and a METI fund based project have been launched as 5-year termed projects at Muroran Institute of Technology. These projects care for NITE process for making long SiC/SiC fuel pins and connecting technology integration. The SCARLET project also includes coolant compatibility and irradiation effect evaluations as LWR and LMFBR materials. The outline and the present status of the SCARLET project will be briefly introduced in the present paper. (authors)

  18. Projected near-future CO2 levels increase activity and alter defensive behaviours in the tropical squid Idiosepius pygmaeus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blake L. Spady

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Carbon dioxide (CO2 levels projected to occur in the oceans by the end of this century cause a range of behavioural effects in fish, but whether other highly active marine organisms, such as cephalopods, are similarly affected is unknown. We tested the effects of projected future CO2 levels (626 and 956 µatm on the behaviour of male two-toned pygmy squid, Idiosepius pygmaeus. Exposure to elevated CO2 increased the number of active individuals by 19–25% and increased movement (number of line-crosses by nearly 3 times compared to squid at present-day CO2. Squid vigilance and defensive behaviours were also altered by elevated CO2 with >80% of individuals choosing jet escape responses over defensive arm postures in response to a visual startle stimulus, compared with 50% choosing jet escape responses at control CO2. In addition, more escape responses were chosen over threat behaviours in body pattern displays at elevated CO2 and individuals were more than twice as likely to use ink as a defence strategy at 956 µatm CO2, compared with controls. Increased activity could lead to adverse effects on energy budgets as well as increasing visibility to predators. A tendency to respond to a stimulus with escape behaviours could increase survival, but may also be energetically costly and could potentially lead to more chases by predators compared with individuals that use defensive postures. These results demonstrate that projected future ocean acidification affects the behaviours of a tropical squid species.

  19. Applied aspects of content projecting of lexicology and phraseology teaching of future primary school teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Марія Михайлівна Греб

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the article it is considered the applied aspects of content projecting of lexicology and phraseology teaching of future primary school teachers basing on the principles of developing education. These principles are realized gradually (theoretical, practical, research stages and stage of independent work. Also these principles are guaranteed by the system of exercises and tasks of three levels of complexity which promotes increasing of motivation, self-development, self-realization of subjects of educational process

  20. High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

  1. Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hooidonk, Ruben; Maynard, Jeffrey; Tamelander, Jerker; Gove, Jamison; Ahmadia, Gabby; Raymundo, Laurie; Williams, Gareth; Heron, Scott F; Planes, Serge

    2016-12-21

    Increasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited. However, previous model-resolution projections (~1 × 1°) are too coarse to inform conservation planning. To meet the need for higher-resolution projections, we generated statistically downscaled projections (4-km resolution) for all coral reefs; these projections reveal high local-scale variation in ASB. Timing of ASB varies >10 years in 71 of the 87 countries and territories with >500 km 2 of reef area. Emissions scenario RCP4.5 represents lower emissions mid-century than will eventuate if pledges made following the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21) become reality. These pledges do little to provide reefs with more time to adapt and acclimate prior to severe bleaching conditions occurring annually. RCP4.5 adds 11 years to the global average ASB timing when compared to RCP8.5; however, >75% of reefs still experience ASB before 2070 under RCP4.5. Coral reef futures clearly vary greatly among and within countries, indicating the projections warrant consideration in most reef areas during conservation and management planning.

  2. Model Projections of Future Fluvial Sediment Delivery to Major Deltas Under Environmental Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darby, S. E.; Dunn, F.; Nicholls, R. J.; Cohen, S.; Zarfl, C.

    2017-12-01

    Deltas are important hot spots for climate change impacts on which over half a billion people live worldwide. Most of the world's deltas are sinking as a result of natural and anthropogenic subsidence and due to eustatic sea level rise. The ability to predict rates of delta aggradation is therefore critical to assessments of the extent to which sedimentation can potentially offset sea level rise, but our ability to make such predictions is severely hindered by a lack of insight into future trends of the fluvial sediment load supplied to their deltas by feeder watersheds. To address this gap we investigate fluvial sediment fluxes under future environmental change for a selection (47) of the world's major river deltas. Specifically, we employed the numerical model WBMsed to project future variations in mean annual fluvial sediment loads under a range of environmental change scenarios that account for changes in climate, socio-economics and dam construction. Our projections indicate a clear decrease (by 34 to 41% on average, depending on the specific scenario) in future fluvial sediment supply to most of the 47 deltas. These reductions in sediment delivery are driven primarily by anthropogenic disturbances, with reservoir construction being the most influential factor globally. Our results indicate the importance of developing new management strategies for reservoir construction and operation.

  3. Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Mubasher; Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan; Mustafa, Muhammad Raza Ul; Mahmood, Rashid; Jia, Shaofeng

    2017-10-01

    We present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most suitable GCMs (i.e. ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, and GFDL-ESM2M) and their mean ensemble (B3MMM) was used to project the future precipitation over the RRB. Historical (1976-2005) and future (2011-2100) precipitation ensembles of B3MMM were used to perturb the stochastically generated future precipitation over 25 rainfall stations in the river basin. The B3MMM exhibited a significant increase in precipitation during 2080s, up to 12 and 8% increase in annual precipitation over upper and lower RRB, respectively, under RCP8.5, and up to 7% increase in annual precipitation under RCP4.5. On the seasonal scale, Mann-Kendal trend test estimated statistically significant positive trend in the future precipitation during all seasons; except September to November when we only noted significant positive trend for the lower RRB under RCP4.5. Overall, at the end of the twenty-first century, an increase in annual precipitation is noteworthy in the whole RRB, with 7 and 10% increase in annual precipitation under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, respectively.

  4. Review on the Projections of Future Storminess over the North Atlantic European Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Mölter

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This is an overview of the results from previously published climate modeling studies reporting on projected aspects of future storminess over the North Atlantic European region (NAER in the period 2020–2190. Changes in storminess are summarized for seven subregions in the study area and rated by a categorical evaluation scheme that takes into account emission scenarios and modeling complexity in the reviewed studies. Although many of the reviewed studies reported an increase in the intensity of high-impact wind speed and extreme cyclone frequency in the second half of the 21st century, the projections of aspects of future storminess over the NAER differed regionally. There is broad consensus that the frequency and intensity of storms, cyclones, and high-impact wind speed will increase over Central and Western Europe, and these changes will probably have the potential to produce more damage. In contrast, future extratropical storminess over Southern Europe is very likely to decrease. For Northern and Eastern Europe the results of the evaluation are inconclusive, because there is an indication of increasing as well as decreasing development of the evaluated aspects of future storminess. Concerning the storm track, we found indications of a likely north- and eastward shift in most assessed studies. Results from three studies suggest a northeastward shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

  5. Utilization of paleoclimate results to validate projections of a future greenhouse warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.

    1990-01-01

    Paleoclimate data provide a rich source of information for testing projections of future greenhouse trends. This paper summarizes the present state-of-the-art as to assessments of two important climate problems. (1) Validation of climate models - The same climate models that have been used to make greenhouse forecasts have also been used for paleoclimate simulations. Comparisons of model results and observations indicate some impressive successes but also some cases where there are significant divergences between models and observations. However, special conditions associated with the impressive successes could lead to a false confidence in the models; disagreements are a topic of greater concern. It remains to be determined whether the disagreements are due to model limitations or uncertainties in geologic data. (2) Role of CO 2 as a significant climate feedback: Paleoclimate studies indicate that the climate system is generally more sensitive than our ability to model it. Addition or subtraction of CO 2 leads to a closer agreement between models and observations. In this respect paleoclimate results in general support the conclusion that CO 2 is an important climate feedback, with the magnitude of the feedback approximately comparable to the sensitivity of present climate models. If the CO 2 projections are correct, comparison of the future warming with past warm periods indicate that there may be no geologic analogs for a future warming; the future greenhouse climate may represent a unique climate realization in earth history

  6. Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

    2017-10-01

    Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.

  7. Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de, E-mail: fabio@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Nuclear and Engineering Center; Imakuma, Kengo, E-mail: kimakuma@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Information Technology Development Dept.

    2011-07-01

    This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

  8. Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de; Imakuma, Kengo

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

  9. Superconductors and novel ceramics for future communication technologies. Project: Cooler and cryotechnology. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haefner, H.U.; Rolff, N.; Thummes, G.

    2004-02-01

    The project involved the production of a 6W rate at 77K stirling chiller for a HTS telecommunication experiment on the 'International Space Station' (project partner Bosch Telecom) and the production of a prototype long-lived stirling pulsed tube chiller of 10W rate at 77K for future applications in telecommunication. The projected was terminated prematurely. The following results were obtained: 1. The low-capacity chiller 'Mono-Kaltfinger' (stirling cold finger with displacement piston) achieved up to 5.3% COP at 80 K. 2. The chilling capacity was 10 W at 80 K for a maximum compressor uptake of 250 W. 3. An efficient pulsed tube chiller was constructed, as well as 4. A long-lived compressor with flexure bearings. (orig.) [de

  10. Future projection of mean and variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon and Indian Ocean Climate systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Annamalai, H. [Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2014-09-15

    The overall goal of this project is to assess the ability of the CMIP3/5 models to simulate the Indian-Ocean monsoon systems. The PI along with post-docs investigated research issues ranging from synoptic systems to long-term trends over the Asian monsoon region. The PI applied diagnostic tools such as moist static energy (MSE) to isolate: the moist and radiative processes responsible for extended monsoon breaks over South Asia, precursors in the ENSO-monsoon association, reasons for the drying tendency over South Asia and the possible effect on tropical Indian Ocean climate anomalies influencing certain aspects of ENSO characteristics. By diagnosing various observations and coupled model simulations, we developed working hypothesis and tested them by carrying out sensitivity experiments with both linear and nonlinear models. Possible physical and dynamical reasons for model sensitivities were deduced. On the teleconnection front, the ability of CMIP5 models in representing the monsoon-desert mechanism was examined recently. Further more, we have applied a suite of diagnostics and have performed an in depth analysis on CMIP5 integrations to isolate the possible reasons for the ENSO-monsoon linkage or lack thereof. The PI has collaborated with Dr. K.R. Sperber of PCMDI and other CLIVAR Asian-Australian monsoon panel members in understanding the ability of CMIP3/5 models in capturing monsoon and its spectrum of variability. The objective and process-based diagnostics aided in selecting models that best represent the present-day monsoon and its variability that are then employed for future projections. Two major highlights were an invitation to write a review on present understanding monsoons in a changing climate in Nature Climate Change, and identification of an east-west shift in observed monsoon rainfall (more rainfall over tropical western Pacific and drying tendency over South Asia) in the last six decades and attributing that shift to SST rise over the tropical

  11. The Future of Family Medicine: a collaborative project of the family medicine community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, James C; Avant, Robert F; Bowman, Marjorie A; Bucholtz, John R; Dickinson, John R; Evans, Kenneth L; Green, Larry A; Henley, Douglas E; Jones, Warren A; Matheny, Samuel C; Nevin, Janice E; Panther, Sandra L; Puffer, James C; Roberts, Richard G; Rodgers, Denise V; Sherwood, Roger A; Stange, Kurt C; Weber, Cynthia W

    2004-01-01

    Recognizing fundamental flaws in the fragmented US health care systems and the potential of an integrative, generalist approach, the leadership of 7 national family medicine organizations initiated the Future of Family Medicine (FFM) project in 2002. The goal of the project was to develop a strategy to transform and renew the discipline of family medicine to meet the needs of patients in a changing health care environment. A national research study was conducted by independent research firms. Interviews and focus groups identified key issues for diverse constituencies, including patients, payers, residents, students, family physicians, and other clinicians. Subsequently, interviews were conducted with nationally representative samples of 9 key constituencies. Based in part on these data, 5 task forces addressed key issues to meet the project goal. A Project Leadership Committee synthesized the task force reports into the report presented here. The project identified core values, a New Model of practice, and a process for development, research, education, partnership, and change with great potential to transform the ability of family medicine to improve the health and health care of the nation. The proposed New Model of practice has the following characteristics: a patient-centered team approach; elimination of barriers to access; advanced information systems, including an electronic health record; redesigned, more functional offices; a focus on quality and outcomes; and enhanced practice finance. A unified communications strategy will be developed to promote the New Model of family medicine to multiple audiences. The study concluded that the discipline needs to oversee the training of family physicians who are committed to excellence, steeped in the core values of the discipline, competent to provide family medicine's basket of services within the New Model, and capable of adapting to varying patient needs and changing care technologies. Family medicine education

  12. CAUSE AND EFFECT IN PROMOTING A PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SEVERIAN-VLĂDUȚ IACOB

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available For a project to be considered successful it is necessary, besides a proper coordination, to be also done a good and wide promotion. In view of communication, promotion and maintenance ensures the organization's image. Disturbances occurring in any type of project, as a result of poor promotion, affect the image of the team and highlight the weaknesses in its management. Therefore, the promotion should be permanently monitored and evaluated. Cause-effect analysis is one of the ways we can identify some of nonconformities of the promotion process within a project.

  13. Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K.

    2006-01-01

    The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat

  14. Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K. [Climate Risk Pty Limited, Fairlight (Australia)

    2006-07-01

    The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat.

  15. Consequences of simulating terrestrial N dynamics for projecting future terrestrial C storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaehle, S.; Friend, A. D.; Friedlingstein, P.

    2009-04-01

    We present results of a new land surface model, O-CN, which includes a process-based coupling between the terrestrial cycling of energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen. The model represents the controls of the terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling on carbon (C) pools and fluxes through photosynthesis, respiration, changes in allocation patterns, as well as soil organic matter decomposition, and explicitly accounts for N leaching and gaseous losses. O-CN has been shown to give realistic results in comparison to observations at a wide range of scales, including in situ flux measurements, productivity databases, and atmospheric CO2 concentration data. Notably, O-CN simulates realistic responses of net primary productivity, foliage area, and foliage N content to elevated atmospheric [CO2] as evidenced at free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) sites (Duke, Oak Ridge). We re-examine earlier model-based assessments of the terrestrial C sequestration potential using a global transient O-CN simulation driven by increases in atmospheric [CO2], N deposition and climatic changes over the 21st century. We find that accounting for terrestrial N cycling about halves the potential to store C in response to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations; mainly due to a reduction of the net C uptake in temperate and boreal forests. Nitrogen deposition partially alleviates the effect of N limitation, but is by far not sufficient to compensate for the effect completely. These findings underline the importance of an accurate representation of nutrient limitations in future projections of the terrestrial net CO2 exchanges and therefore land-climate feedback studies.

  16. How Adolescents Construct Their Future: The Effect of Loneliness on Future Orientation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seginer, Rachel; Lilach, Efrat

    2004-01-01

    This study examined the effect of loneliness, gender, and two dimensions of prospective life domains on adolescent future orientation. Future orientation was studied in four prospective domains: social relations, marriage and family, higher education and work and career. These domains are described in terms of two dimensions: theme (relational vs.…

  17. Chinese villages and their sustainable future: the European Union-China-Research Project "SUCCESS".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumreicher, Heidi

    2008-04-01

    China has 800,000 villages-one person out of seven on the globe is living in a Chinese rural settlement. Yet the global discussions about the situation in China is currently characterised by a disproportionate focus on the development of towns and until now circumstances have generally been neglected in the rural areas, where 70% of the Chinese population is still living. Within the 5 years of the SUCCESS project research, this set of actual problems has been considered and analysed under the principle of sustainability: "What to maintain?" "What to change?" were the overall research questions asked in the SUCCESS project; the researchers were looking for answers under a sustainability regime, respecting the need to raise the quality of life in the villages. Several interweaving processes were used to achieve results: the inter-disciplinary research process between many areas of expertise, the trans-disciplinary process between the researchers and the Chinese villagers, and a negotiation process that made the connection between these two processes. The introduction describes the basic sustainability definition that was orienting the whole study. The innovation lays mostly in the methodology: the inter-disciplinary research co-operation related to practice and to involving the affected communities is needed to manage the significant and growing imbalances between urban and rural areas regarding their sustainability. In the transdisciplinary work, the project developed "village future sentences" that describe the local outcome of the research as one step towards better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms that could lead to a sustainable future, and they also managed to start sustainability processes in the case study sites. The integrated approach of the project helped generating future scenarios for these villages covering all aspects of their development, including urban design issues. Out of these scenarios, the villages developed small projects that could

  18. The SOLUTIONS project: challenges and responses for present and future emerging pollutants in land and water resources management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brack, Werner; Altenburger, Rolf; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Krauss, Martin; López Herráez, David; van Gils, Jos; Slobodnik, Jaroslav; Munthe, John; Gawlik, Bernd Manfred; van Wezel, Annemarie; Schriks, Merijn; Hollender, Juliane; Tollefsen, Knut Erik; Mekenyan, Ovanes; Dimitrov, Saby; Bunke, Dirk; Cousins, Ian; Posthuma, Leo; van den Brink, Paul J; López de Alda, Miren; Barceló, Damià; Faust, Michael; Kortenkamp, Andreas; Scrimshaw, Mark; Ignatova, Svetlana; Engelen, Guy; Massmann, Gudrun; Lemkine, Gregory; Teodorovic, Ivana; Walz, Karl-Heinz; Dulio, Valeria; Jonker, Michiel T O; Jäger, Felix; Chipman, Kevin; Falciani, Francesco; Liska, Igor; Rooke, David; Zhang, Xiaowei; Hollert, Henner; Vrana, Branislav; Hilscherova, Klara; Kramer, Kees; Neumann, Steffen; Hammerbacher, Ruth; Backhaus, Thomas; Mack, Juliane; Segner, Helmut; Escher, Beate; de Aragão Umbuzeiro, Gisela

    2015-01-15

    SOLUTIONS (2013 to 2018) is a European Union Seventh Framework Programme Project (EU-FP7). The project aims to deliver a conceptual framework to support the evidence-based development of environmental policies with regard to water quality. SOLUTIONS will develop the tools for the identification, prioritisation and assessment of those water contaminants that may pose a risk to ecosystems and human health. To this end, a new generation of chemical and effect-based monitoring tools is developed and integrated with a full set of exposure, effect and risk assessment models. SOLUTIONS attempts to address legacy, present and future contamination by integrating monitoring and modelling based approaches with scenarios on future developments in society, economy and technology and thus in contamination. The project follows a solutions-oriented approach by addressing major problems of water and chemicals management and by assessing abatement options. SOLUTIONS takes advantage of the access to the infrastructure necessary to investigate the large basins of the Danube and Rhine as well as relevant Mediterranean basins as case studies, and puts major efforts on stakeholder dialogue and support. Particularly, the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) Common Implementation Strategy (CIS) working groups, International River Commissions, and water works associations are directly supported with consistent guidance for the early detection, identification, prioritisation, and abatement of chemicals in the water cycle. SOLUTIONS will give a specific emphasis on concepts and tools for the impact and risk assessment of complex mixtures of emerging pollutants, their metabolites and transformation products. Analytical and effect-based screening tools will be applied together with ecological assessment tools for the identification of toxicants and their impacts. The SOLUTIONS approach is expected to provide transparent and evidence-based candidates or River Basin Specific Pollutants in the case

  19. Future projections of the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard with the regional climate model MAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, C.; Fettweis, X.; Erpicum, M.

    2015-01-01

    We have performed future projections of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR regional climate model forced by the MIROC5 global model, following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of the melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago and the ice caps. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo-melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a strong winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. At the end of the century (2070-2099 mean), SMB is projected to be negative over the entire Svalbard and, by 2085, all glaciated regions of Svalbard are predicted to undergo net ablation, meaning that, under the RCP8.5 scenario, all the glaciers and ice caps are predicted to start their irreversible retreat before the end of the 21st century.

  20. Effective Safety Management in Construction Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Othman, I.; Shafiq, Nasir; Nuruddin, M. F.

    2017-12-01

    Effective safety management is one of the serious problems in the construction industry worldwide, especially in large-scale construction projects. There have been significant reductions in the number and the rate of injury over the last 20 years. Nevertheless, construction remains as one of the high risk industry. The purpose of this study is to examine safety management in the Malaysian construction industry, as well as to highlight the importance of construction safety management. The industry has contributed significantly to the economic growth of the country. However, when construction safety management is not implemented systematically, accidents will happen and this can affect the economic growth of the country. This study put the safety management in construction project as one of the important elements to project performance and success. The study emphasize on awareness and the factors that lead to the safety cases in construction project.

  1. From Project Management to Process Management - Effectively Organising Transdisciplinary Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Moschitz, Heidrun

    2013-01-01

    In transdisciplinary projects, the roles of researchers change. In addition to being a source of knowledge, they are required to engage in knowledge exchange processes. This results in an alteration at project level: researchers need to creatively manage projects as group processes.

  2. International research and development projects in nuclear energy: Experience and future prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strohl, P.

    1983-01-01

    From the very beginning nuclear energy appeared as a fruitful field for international co-operation and particularly for international projects and joint ventures. By pooling scientific, technical and financial resources, the participating countries sought to promote the development of technology and the transition of nuclear energy to the industrial stage. Governments and therefore intergovernmental organizations were the driving force behind the establishment of joint projects in various R and D sectors, often in association with industry and private research institutes. The situation changed considerably from the end of the 1960s onwards. Despite some remarkable technical achievements, international co-operation did not develop to the extent predicted at the outset. Industry took over in the exploitation of proven technologies, and industrial co-operation agreements have become an important feature in some key areas of nuclear energy. This trend raises questions as to the future of joint R and D projects organized through intergovernmental co-operation. Although such projects are still very useful, they tend to be concentrated in those few sectors which continue to be of direct interest to the Governments; for instance, fundamental research, radioactive waste management and nuclear safety. The position of nuclear energy has changed, and the benefits to be drawn from this form of international co-operation must be critically re-assessed accordingly. While advantage to be gained from international projects for countries which are the most advanced in the development of nuclear energy is not the same as it was at the beginning, the transfer of experience and knowledge to less advanced countries is still the main concern of projects dealing with safety and regulatory matters. The experience thus gained provides a very useful insight into the legal and institutional framework of joint projects

  3. Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN over Peninsular Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Syafrina

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF. New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081–2100. The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10–40 years.

  4. Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.

    2014-09-01

    A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

  5. MedHySol: Future federator project of massive production of solar hydrogen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmah, Bouziane; Harouadi, Farid; Chader, Samira; Belhamel, Maiouf; M' Raoui, Abdelhamid; Abdeladim, Kamel [CDER, BP 62, Route de l' Observatoire, Bouzareah, Alger (Algeria); Benmoussa, H. [LESEI, Universite de Batna, Batna (Algeria); Cherigui, Adel Nasser [Universite Joseph Fourier Grenoble I, BP 87, Saint-Martin-D' Heres 38400 (France); Etievant, Claude [CETH, Innov' valley Entreprises, 91460 Marcoussis (France)

    2009-06-15

    Mediterranean Hydrogen Solar (MedHySol) is a federator project for development of a massive hydrogen production starting from solar energy and its exportation within a framework of a Euro-Maghrebian Cooperation project for industrial and energetic needs in the Mediterranean basin. The proposal of this project is included in the Algiers Declaration's on Hydrogen from Renewable Origin following the organization of the first international workshop on hydrogen which was held in 2005. Algeria is the privileged site to receive the MedHySol platform. The objective of the first step of the project is to realize a technological platform allowing the evaluation of emergent technologies of hydrogen production from solar energy with a significant size (10-100 kW) and to maintain the development of energetic rupture technologies. The second step of the project is to implement the most effective and less expensive technologies to pilot great projects (1-1000 MW). In this article we present the potentialities and the feasibility of MedHySol, as well as the fundamental elements for a scientific and technical supervision of this great project. (author)

  6. SLUDGE MASS REDUCTION: PRIMARY COMPOSITIONAL FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE MELT RATE FOR FUTURE SLUDGE BATCH PROJECTIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newell, J; Miller, D; Stone, M; Pickenheim, B

    2008-01-01

    The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) was tasked to provide an assessment of the downstream impacts to the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) of decisions regarding the implementation of Al-dissolution to support sludge mass reduction and processing. Based on future sludge batch compositional projections from the Liquid Waste Organization's (LWO) sludge batch plan, assessments have been made with respect to the ability to maintain comparable projected operating windows for sludges with and without Al-dissolution. As part of that previous assessment, candidate frits were identified to provide insight into melt rate for average sludge batches representing with and without Al-dissolution flowsheets. Initial melt rate studies using the melt rate furnace (MRF) were performed using five frits each for Cluster 2 and Cluster 4 compositions representing average without and with Al-dissolution. It was determined, however, that the REDOX endpoint (Fe 2+ /ΣFe for the glass) for Clusters 2 and 4 resulted in an overly oxidized feed which negatively affected the initial melt rate tests. After the sludge was adjusted to a more reduced state, additional testing was performed with frits that contained both high and low concentrations of sodium and boron oxides. These frits were selected strictly based on the ability to ascertain compositional trends in melt rate and did not necessarily apply to any acceptability criteria for DWPF processing. The melt rate data are in general agreement with historical trends observed at SRNL and during processing of SB3 (Sludge Batch 3)and SB4 in DWPF. When MAR acceptability criteria were applied, Frit 510 was seen to have the highest melt rate at 0.67 in/hr for Cluster 2 (without Al-dissolution), which is compositionally similar to SB4. For Cluster 4 (with Al-dissolution), which is compositionally similar to SB3, Frit 418 had the highest melt rate at 0.63 in/hr. Based on this data, there appears to be a slight advantage of the Frit

  7. Imagining the personal past: Episodic counterfactuals compared to episodic memories and episodic future projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Özbek, Müge; Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2017-01-01

    Episodic counterfactuals are imagined events that could have happened, but did not happen, in a person’s past. Such imagined past events are important aspects of mental life, affecting emotions, decisions, and behaviors. However, studies examining their phenomenological characteristics and content...... are few. Here we introduced a new method to systematically compare self-generated episodic counterfactuals to self-generated episodic memories and future projections with regard to their phenomenological characteristics (e.g., imagery, emotional valence, rehearsal) and content (e.g., reference to cultural...... distance. The findings show that imagined events are phenomenologically different from memories of experienced events, consistent with reality monitoring theory, and that imagined future events are different from both actual and imagined past events, consistent with some theories of motivation....

  8. The Global Climate and Energy Project at Stanford University: Fundamental Research Towards Future Energy Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milne, Jennifer L.; Sassoon, Richard E.; Hung, Emilie; Bosshard, Paolo; Benson, Sally M.

    The Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP), at Stanford University, invests in research with the potential to lead to energy technologies with lower greenhouse gas emissions than current energy technologies. GCEP is sponsored by four international companies, ExxonMobil, GE, Schlumberger, and Toyota and supports research programs in academic institutions worldwide. Research falls into the broad areas of carbon based energy systems, renewables, electrochemistry, and the electric grid. Within these areas research efforts are underway that are aimed at achieving break-throughs and innovations that greatly improve efficiency, performance, functionality and cost of many potential energy technologies of the future including solar, batteries, fuel cells, biofuels, hydrogen storage and carbon capture and storage. This paper presents a summary of some of GCEP's activities over the past 7 years with current research areas of interest and potential research directions in the near future.

  9. Projecting Sexual and Injecting HIV Risks into Future Outcomes with Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.; Zule, William A.

    Longitudinal studies of health outcomes for HIV could be very costly cumbersome and not representative of the risk population. Conversely, cross-sectional approaches could be representative but rely on the retrospective information to estimate prevalence and incidence. We present an Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach where we use behavioral data from a cross-sectional representative study and project the behavior into the future so that the risks of acquiring HIV could be studied in a dynamical/temporal sense. We show how the blend of behavior and contact network factors (sexual, injecting) play the role in the risk of future HIV acquisition and time till obtaining HIV. We show which subjects are the most likely persons to get HIV in the next year, and whom they are likely to infect. We examine how different behaviors are related to the increase or decrease of HIV risks and how to estimate the quantifiable risk measures such as survival HIV free.

  10. HFCs contribution to the greenhouse effect. Present and projected estimations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Libre, J.M.; Elf-Atochem, S.A. [Central Research & Development, Paris (France)

    1997-12-31

    This paper reviews data that can be used to calculate hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) contribution to the greenhouse effect and compare it to other trace gas contributions. Projections are made for 2010 and 2100 on the basis of available emission scenarios. Industrial judgement on the likelihood of those scenarios is also developed. Calculations can be made in two different ways: from Global Warming Potential weighted emissions of species or by direct calculation of radiative forcing based on measured and projected atmospheric concentrations of compounds. Results show that HFCs corresponding to commercial uses have a negligible contribution to the greenhouse effect in comparison with other trace gases. The projected contributions are also very small even if very high emission scenarios are maintained for decades. In 2010 this contribution remains below 1%. Longer term emissions projections are difficult. However, based on the IPCC scenario IS92a, in spite of huge emissions projected for the year 2100, the HFC contribution remains below 3%. Actually many factors indicate that the real UFC contribution to the greenhouse effect will be even smaller than presented here. Low emissive systems and small charges will likely improve sharply in the future and have drastically improved in the recent past. HFC technology implementation is likely to grow in the future, reach a maximum before the middle of the next century; the market will stabilise driven by recycling, closing of systems and competitive technologies. This hypothesis is supported by previous analysis of the demand for HTCs type applications which can be represented by {open_quotes}S{close_quotes} type curves and by recent analysis indicating that the level of substitution of old products by HFCs is growing slowly. On the basis of those data and best industrial judgement, the contribution of HFCs to the greenhouse effect is highly likely to remain below 1% during the next century. 11 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

  11. Planning and managing future space facility projects. [management by objectives and group dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieber, J. E.; Wilhelm, J. A.; Tanner, T. A.; Helmreich, R. L.; Burgenbauch, S. F.

    1979-01-01

    To learn how ground-based personnel of a space project plan and organize their work and how such planning and organizing relate to work outcomes, longitudinal study of the management and execution of the Space Lab Mission Development Test 3 (SMD 3) was performed at NASA Ames Research Center. A view of the problems likely to arise in organizations and some methods of coping with these problems are presented as well as the conclusions and recommendations that pertain strictly to SMD 3 management. Emphasis is placed on the broader context of future space facility projects and additional problems that may be anticipated. A model of management that may be used to facilitate problem solving and communication - management by objectives (MBO) is presented. Some problems of communication and emotion management that MBO does not address directly are considered. Models for promoting mature, constructive and satisfying emotional relationships among group members are discussed.

  12. Assessing Risk in Costing High-energy Accelerators: from Existing Projects to the Future Linear Collider

    CERN Document Server

    Lebrun, Philippe

    2010-01-01

    High-energy accelerators are large projects funded by public money, developed over the years and constructed via major industrial contracts both in advanced technology and in more conventional domains such as civil engineering and infrastructure, for which they often constitute one-of markets. Assessing their cost, as well as the risk and uncertainty associated with this assessment is therefore an essential part of project preparation and a justified requirement by the funding agencies. Stemming from the experience with large circular colliders at CERN, LEP and LHC, as well as with the Main Injector, the Tevatron Collider Experiments and Accelerator Upgrades, and the NOvA Experiment at Fermilab, we discuss sources of cost variance and derive cost risk assessment methods applicable to the future linear collider, through its two technical approaches for ILC and CLIC. We also address disparities in cost risk assessment imposed by regional differences in regulations, procedures and practices.

  13. Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainali, Kumar P; Warren, Dan L; Dhileepan, Kunjithapatham; McConnachie, Andrew; Strathie, Lorraine; Hassan, Gul; Karki, Debendra; Shrestha, Bharat B; Parmesan, Camille

    2015-12-01

    Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium

  14. Autonoetic consciousness: Reconsidering the role of episodic memory in future-oriented self-projection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Stanley B

    2016-01-01

    Following the seminal work of Ingvar (1985. "Memory for the future": An essay on the temporal organization of conscious awareness. Human Neurobiology, 4, 127-136), Suddendorf (1994. The discovery of the fourth dimension: Mental time travel and human evolution. Master's thesis. University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand), and Tulving (1985. Memory and consciousness. Canadian Psychology/PsychologieCanadienne, 26, 1-12), exploration of the ability to anticipate and prepare for future contingencies that cannot be known with certainty has grown into a thriving research enterprise. A fundamental tenet of this line of inquiry is that future-oriented mental time travel, in most of its presentations, is underwritten by a property or an extension of episodic recollection. However, a careful conceptual analysis of exactly how episodic memory functions in this capacity has yet to be undertaken. In this paper I conduct such an analysis. Based on conceptual, phenomenological, and empirical considerations, I conclude that the autonoetic component of episodic memory, not episodic memory per se, is the causally determinative factor enabling an individual to project him or herself into a personal future.

  15. Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2017-04-01

    Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

  16. Projecting the Future for Design Science Research: An Action‐Case Based Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baskerville, Richard; Pries-Heje, Jan

    2015-01-01

    and theories appears to be a key challenge. In this paper we commence with a DESRIST paper from 2012 that instantiated design principles in an artifact for a bank. That paper included plans and techniques for future use of its principles (propagation), including prescriptions for a five-phase adoption process...... or theories have stimulated many actual projections. We demonstrate these concepts in a case study of propagation: a chemical manufacturer and service provider that adopted the design principles arising from that 2012 DESRIST banking-based design science research. We conclude that generalizability is too well...

  17. Effect-directed analysis: Current status and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Seongjin; Giesy, John P.; Lee, Jung-Suk; Lee, Jong-Hyeon; Khim, Jong Seong

    2016-09-01

    Effect-directed analysis (EDA) has become useful for identification of toxicant(s) that occur in mixtures in the environment, especially those that are causative agents of specific adverse effects. Here, we summarize and review EDA methodology including preparation of samples, biological analyses, fractionations, and instrumental analyses, highlighting key scientific advancements. A total of 63 documents since 1999 (Scopus search) including 46 research articles, 13 review papers, and 4 project descriptions, have been collected and reviewed in this study. At the early stage (1999-2010), most studies that applied EDA focused on organic extracts of freshwater and coastal contaminated sediments and wastewater. Toxic effects were often measured using cell-based bioassays ( in vitro) and the causative chemicals were identified by use of low resolution gas chromatography with mass selective detector (GCMSD). More recently (2010-present), EDA has been extended to various matrices such as biota, soil, crude oil, and suspended solids and techniques have been improved to include determination of bioavailability in vivo. In particular, methods for non-target screenings of organic chemicals in environmental samples using cutting-edge instrumentation such as time of flight-mass spectrometry (ToF-MS), Fourier transform-ion cyclotron resonance (FT-ICR), and Orbitrap mass spectrometer have been developed. This overview provides descriptions of recent improvements of EDA and suggests future research directions based on current understandings and limitations.

  18. Transportation Energy Futures Series. Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Aden, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Warner, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Inman, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Simpkins, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Argo, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-03-01

    The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  19. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, M.; Mai, T.; Newes, E.; Aden, A.; Warner, E.; Uriarte, C.; Inman, D.; Simpkins, T.; Argo, A.

    2013-03-01

    The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  20. Earth BioGenome Project: Sequencing life for the future of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewin, Harris A; Robinson, Gene E; Kress, W John; Baker, William J; Coddington, Jonathan; Crandall, Keith A; Durbin, Richard; Edwards, Scott V; Forest, Félix; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Goldstein, Melissa M; Grigoriev, Igor V; Hackett, Kevin J; Haussler, David; Jarvis, Erich D; Johnson, Warren E; Patrinos, Aristides; Richards, Stephen; Castilla-Rubio, Juan Carlos; van Sluys, Marie-Anne; Soltis, Pamela S; Xu, Xun; Yang, Huanming; Zhang, Guojie

    2018-04-24

    Increasing our understanding of Earth's biodiversity and responsibly stewarding its resources are among the most crucial scientific and social challenges of the new millennium. These challenges require fundamental new knowledge of the organization, evolution, functions, and interactions among millions of the planet's organisms. Herein, we present a perspective on the Earth BioGenome Project (EBP), a moonshot for biology that aims to sequence, catalog, and characterize the genomes of all of Earth's eukaryotic biodiversity over a period of 10 years. The outcomes of the EBP will inform a broad range of major issues facing humanity, such as the impact of climate change on biodiversity, the conservation of endangered species and ecosystems, and the preservation and enhancement of ecosystem services. We describe hurdles that the project faces, including data-sharing policies that ensure a permanent, freely available resource for future scientific discovery while respecting access and benefit sharing guidelines of the Nagoya Protocol. We also describe scientific and organizational challenges in executing such an ambitious project, and the structure proposed to achieve the project's goals. The far-reaching potential benefits of creating an open digital repository of genomic information for life on Earth can be realized only by a coordinated international effort.

  1. Constraints To Effective Community Development Projects Among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study focused on the perceived constraints to effective community development projects among rural households in Calabar agricultural zone of Cross River State, Nigeria. Data were collected with the aid of structured questionnaire from 104 randomly selected respondents in the study area. Data analysis was by the ...

  2. A study on strategies for effective participation in the IAEA/RCA projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Joon Keuk; Jun, Byung Jin; Lee, Man Ki; Jin, Joon Ha; Choi, Pyung Hoon; Kim, Myung Ro; Min, Do Young

    2002-07-01

    In an effort to achieve the objectives, the following provisions were made. First of all, how this project supported RCA events that were held in Korea during the project period was described. Also, participation in RCA major policy level meetings, RCA-30 Scientific Forum, RCA Regional Office Opening were briefly reviewed. Secondly, RCA's general features including history and objective of its establishment, basic policy, administrative structure, major meetings was also reviewed. Thirdly, Overview of RCA projects, project implementation mechanism, on-going and planned project, review of technology utilization so fat and success stories were described. Fourthly, the issues related to the effective RCA management such as lead countries, Regional Resources Units (RRUs), RCA future vision and outsourcing of technical cooperation projects were reviewed. Finally, proper strategies and recommendations for active implementation of RCA projects were presented. This study can be utilized as basic reference material in the efficient implementation of RCA programmes in the future and for the personnel involved in the RCA projects as the fundamental elements for implementing the RCA cooperation are presented. The effective implementation direction for RCA programmes and strategies for strengthening Korea's participation in RCA projects can be utilized as basic reference material for the effective planning and implementation of RCA projects. It is hoped that this study will be widely utilized for expanding Korea's participation in the RCA project and for establishing a future direction for RCA projects by the governments, industries, academic circles and research institutions

  3. Future projection of design storms using a GCM-informed weather generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    KIm, T. W.; Wi, S.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Valdés, J. B.

    2017-12-01

    The rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are one of the most common tools used to provide planners with a description of the frequency of extreme rainfall events of various intensities and durations. Therefore deriving appropriate IDF estimates is important to avoid malfunctions of water structures that cause huge damage. Evaluating IDF estimates in the context of climate change has become more important because projections from climate models suggest that the frequency of intense rainfall events will increase in the future due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the Bartlett-Lewis (BL) stochastic rainfall model is employed to generate annual maximum series of various sub-daily durations for test basins of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) project, and to derive the IDF curves in the context of climate changes projected by the North American Regional Climate Change (NARCCAP) models. From our results, it has been found that the observed annual rainfall maximum series is reasonably represented by the synthetic annual maximum series generated by the BL model. The observed data is perturbed by change factors to incorporate the NARCCAP climate change scenarios into the IDF estimates. The future IDF curves show a significant difference from the historical IDF curves calculated for the period 1968-2000. Overall, the projected IDF curves show an increasing trend over time. The impacts of changes in extreme rainfall on the hydrologic response of the MOPEX basins are also explored. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS-NH-2015-79] through the Disaster and Safety Management Institute funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government.

  4. ACSEPT a European project for a new step in the future demonstration of advanced fuel processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourg, S.; Hill, C.; Caravaca, C.; Espartero, A.; Rhodes, C.; Taylor, R.; Harrison, M.; EKBERG, C.; GEIST, A.; Modolo, G.; Cassayre, L.; Malmbeck, R.; De Angelis, G.; Bouvet, S.; Klaassen, F.

    2010-01-01

    For more than fifteen years, a European scientific community has joined its effort to develop and optimise processes for the partitioning of actinides from fission products. In an international context of 'nuclear renaissance', the upcoming of a new generation of nuclear reactor (Gen IV) will require the development of associated advanced closed fuel cycles which answer the needs of a sustainable nuclear energy: the minimization of the production of long lived radioactive waste but also the optimization of the use of natural resources with an increased resistance to proliferation. Actually, Partitioning and Transmutation (P and T), associated to a multi-recycling of all transuranics (TRUs), should play a key role in the development of this sustainable nuclear energy. By joining together 34 Partners coming from European universities, nuclear research bodies and major industrial players in a multidisciplinary consortium, the FP7 EURATOM-Fission Collaborative Project ACSEPT (Actinide recycling by Separation and Transmutation), started in 2008 for four year duration, provides the sound basis and fundamental improvements for future demonstrations of fuel treatment in strong connection with fuel fabrication techniques. Consistently with potentially viable recycling strategies, ACSEPT therefore provides a structured R and D framework to develop chemical separation processes compatible with fuel fabrication techniques, with a view to their future demonstration at the pilot level. ACSEPT is organized into three technical domains: (i) Considering technically mature aqueous separation processes, ACSEPT works to optimize and select the most promising ones dedicated either to actinide partitioning or to group actinide separation. (ii) Concerning high temperature pyrochemical separation processes, ACSEPT focuses on the enhancement of the two reference cores of process selected within previous projects. R and D efforts are now devoted to key scientific and technical points

  5. Capability and dependency in the Newcastle 85+ cohort study. Projections of future care needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagger, Carol; Collerton, Joanna C; Davies, Karen; Kingston, Andrew; Robinson, Louise A; Eccles, Martin P; von Zglinicki, Thomas; Martin-Ruiz, Carmen; James, Oliver F W; Kirkwood, Tom B L; Bond, John

    2011-05-04

    Little is known of the capabilities of the oldest old, the fastest growing age group in the population. We aimed to estimate capability and dependency in a cohort of 85 year olds and to project future demand for care. Structured interviews at age 85 with 841 people born in 1921 and living in Newcastle and North Tyneside, UK who were permanently registered with participating general practices. Measures of capability included were self-reported activities of daily living (ADL), timed up and go test (TUG), standardised mini-mental state examination (SMMSE), and assessment of urinary continence in order to classify interval-need dependency. To project future demand for care the proportion needing 24-hour care was applied to the 2008 England and Wales population projections of those aged 80 years and over by gender. Of participants, 62% (522/841) were women, 77% (651/841) lived in standard housing, 13% (106/841) in sheltered housing and 10% (84/841) in a care home. Overall, 20% (165/841) reported no difficulty with any of the ADLs. Men were more capable in performing ADLs and more independent than women. TUG validated self-reported ADLs. When classified by 'interval of need' 41% (332/810) were independent, 39% (317/810) required help less often than daily, 12% (94/810) required help at regular times of the day and 8% (67/810) required 24-hour care. Of care-home residents, 94% (77/82) required daily help or 24-hour care. Future need for 24-hour care for people aged 80 years or over in England and Wales is projected to increase by 82% from 2010 to 2030 with a demand for 630,000 care-home places by 2030. This analysis highlights the diversity of capability and levels of dependency in this cohort. A remarkably high proportion remain independent, particularly men. However a significant proportion of this population require 24-hour care at home or in care homes. Projections for the next 20 years suggest substantial increases in the number requiring 24-hour care due to

  6. Effective Planning of the Future of the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sentsov, A.; Bolsunovskaya, Yu; Bolsunovskaya, L.

    2014-08-01

    The problems of the Arctic region have become the most important ones in the world. Political risks hinder the industrial development of the region. This paper addresses the problem of planning and modeling the future of this region. It presents the problems of developing a model of the future due to the ideologies and strategies of two main actors in the Arctic, the United States and the Russian Federation. The effects of a bipolar perception of the future of the region and of the whole world are shown. A model of the effective planning of the future of the Arctic region is proposed.

  7. The Better Beginnings, Better Futures Project: Findings from Grade 3 to Grade 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Ray DeV.; Bradshaw, Alison J.; Petrunka, Kelly; Nelson, Geoffrey; Herry, Yves; Craig, Wendy M.; Arnold, Robert; Parker, Kevin C. H.; Khan, Shahriar R.; Hoch, Jeffrey S.; Pancer, S. Mark; Loomis, Colleen; Belanger, Jean-Marc; Evers, Susan; Maltais, Claire; Thompson, Katherine; Rossiter, Melissa D.

    2010-01-01

    Although comprehensive and ecological approaches to early childhood prevention are commonly advocated, there are few examples of long-term follow-up of such programs. In this monograph, we investigate the medium- and long-term effects of an ecological, community-based prevention project for primary school children and families living in three…

  8. Workforce development and effective evaluation of projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickerson, Claire; Green, Tess; Blass, Eddie

    The success of a project or programme is typically determined in relation to outputs. However, there is a commitment among UK public services to spending public funds efficiently and on activities that provide the greatest benefit to society. Skills for Health recognised the need for a tool to manage the complex process of evaluating project benefits. An integrated evaluation framework was developed to help practitioners identify, describe, measure and evaluate the benefits of workforce development projects. Practitioners tested the framework on projects within three NHS trusts and provided valuable feedback to support its development. The prospective approach taken to identify benefits and collect baseline data to support evaluation was positively received and the clarity and completeness of the framework, as well as the relevance of the questions, were commended. Users reported that the framework was difficult to complete; an online version could be developed, which might help to improve usability. Effective implementation of this approach will depend on the quality and usability of the framework, the willingness of organisations to implement it, and the presence or establishment of an effective change management culture.

  9. Projection of future runoff change using climate elasticity method derived from Budyko framework in major basins across China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Wanqiu; Wang, Weiguang; Zou, Shan; Deng, Chao

    2018-03-01

    This study established a climate elasticity method based on Budyko hypothesis and enhanced it by selecting the most effective Budyko-type formula to strengthen the runoff change prediction reliability. The spatiotemporal variations in hydrologic variables (i.e., runoff, precipitation and potential evaporation) during historical period were revealed first and the climate elasticities of runoff were investigated. The proposed climate elasticity method was also applied to project the spatiotemporal variations in future runoff and its key influencing factors in 35 watersheds across China. Wherein, the future climate series were retrieved by consulting the historical series, informed by four global climate models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathways from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Wang-Tang equation was selected as the optimal Budyko-type equation for its best ability in reproducing the runoff change (with a coefficient of determination and mean absolute error of 0.998 and 1.36 mm, respectively). Observed runoff presents significant decreasing trends in the northern and increasing trends in the southern regions of China, and generally its change is identified to be more sensitive to climatic variables in Hai River Basin and lower Yellow River Basin. Compared to the runoff during the reference period, positive change rates in the north and negative change rates in the south of China in the mid-21st century can be practically generalized from the majority of GCMs projections. This maybe resulted from the increasing precipitation, especially in parts of northern basins. Meanwhile, GCMs project a consistently upward trend in potential evaporation although significant decreasing trends occur in the majority of catchments for the historical period. The results indicate that climate change will possibly bring some changes to the water resources over China in the mid-21st century and some countermeasures of water resources planning

  10. Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.

    2013-12-01

    Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.

  11. Changes in record-breaking temperature events in China and projections for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Hanqing; Liu, Chun; Lu, Yanyu; He, Dongyan; Tian, Hong

    2017-06-01

    As global warming intensifies, more record-breaking (RB) temperature events are reported in many places around the world where temperatures are higher than ever before http://cn.bing.com/dict/search?q=.&FORM=BDVSP6&mkt=zh-cn. The RB temperatures have caused severe impacts on ecosystems and human society. Here, we address changes in RB temperature events occurring over China in the past (1961-2014) as well as future projections (2006-2100) using observational data and the newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The number of RB events has a significant multi-decadal variability in China, and the intensity expresses a strong decrease from 1961 to 2014. However, more frequent RB events occurred in mid-eastern and northeastern China over last 30 years (1981-2010). Comparisons with observational data indicate multi-model ensemble (MME) simulations from the CMIP5 model perform well in simulating RB events for the historical run period (1961-2005). CMIP5 MME shows a relatively larger uncertainty for the change in intensity. From 2051 to 2100, fewer RB events are projected to occur in most parts of China according to RCP 2.6 scenarios. Over the longer period from 2006 to 2100, a remarkable increase is expected for the entire country according to RCP 8.5 scenarios and the maximum numbers of RB events increase by approximately 600 per year at end of twenty-first century.

  12. Energy: options for the future. Curriculum development project for high school teachers. Final report. [Packet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carroll, T.O.

    1978-04-01

    Recent state and regional energy crises demonstrate the delicate balance between energy systems, the environment, and the economy. Indeed, the interaction between these three elements of society is very complex. This project develops curriculum materials that would better provide students with an understanding and awareness of fundamental principles of energy supply, conversion processes, and utilization now and in the future. The project had two specific objectives: to transfer knowledge of energy systems, analysis techniques, and advanced technologies from the energy analyst community to the teacher participants; and to involve teachers in the preparation of modular case studies on energy issues for use within the classroom. These curriculum modules are intended to enhance the teacher's ability to provide energy-related education to students within his or her own academic setting. The project is organized as a three-week summer program, as noted in the flyer (Appendix A). Mornings are spent in seminars with energy and environmental specialists (their handout lecture notes are included as Appendix B); afternoons are devoted to high school curriculum development based on the seminar discussions. The curriculum development is limited to five areas: conservation, electricity demand scheduling, energy in the food system, new technologies (solar, wind, biomass), and environment. Appendix C consists of one-day lession plans in these areas.

  13. Capital planning for operating theatres based on projecting future theatre requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Jennifer A; Tyler, Peter; Jayasinha, Hirani; Meleady, Kathleen T; Jones, Neill

    2011-05-01

    During 2006, NSW and ACT Health Departments jointly engaged KPMG to develop an Operating Theatre Requirements' Projection Model and an accompanying planning guideline. A research scan was carried out to identify drivers of surgical demand, theatre capacity and theatre performance, as well as locating existing approaches to modelling operating theatre requirements for planning purposes. The project delivered a Microsoft Excel-based model for projecting future operating theatre requirements, together with an accompanying guideline for use of the model and interpretation of its outputs. It provides a valuable addition to the suite of tools available to Health staff for service and capital planning. The model operates with several limitations, largely due to being data dependent, and the state and completeness of available theatre activity data. However, the operational flexibility built into the model allows users to compensate for these limitations, on a case by case basis, when the user has access to suitable, local data. The design flexibility of the model means that updating the model as improved data become available is not difficult; resulting in revisions being able to be made quickly, and disseminated to users rapidly.

  14. Risk Management in Future Romanian E-Government 2.0 Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didraga Otniel

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available E-government public services in Romania must follow unitary procedures considering the new requirements of the European Union from the Digital Agenda for Europe Strategy 2020. E-government 2.0 has to be implemented because of the cultural and behavioral transformations in the interaction between governments and users of e-services. E-government 2.0 projects use tools and techniques of social media to accomplish their goals. This article examines the possible risk categories and the risk management procedures needed to mitigate risks in future Romanian e-government projects, according to the strategic lines of development for the Digital Agenda. We propose a risk management plan for the e-government lines of action within the strategic lines of development that includes identifying, assessing, and mitigating the risks. New and modernized government services through e-government 2.0 projects that apply risk management will bring a significant improvement in how citizens and businesses relate to government and will increase the use of e-government services.

  15. The IAEA international project on innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles (INPRO): current and future activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kupitz, J.; Depisch, F.; Kuznetsov, V.

    2004-01-01

    Upon resolutions of the IAEA General Conference in 2000, the IAEA initiated International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO). The objective of INPRO, which comprises two phases, is to support sustainable deployment and use of nuclear technology to meet the global energy needs in the next 50 years and beyond. During Phase I, work is subdivided into two sub phases. Phase 1A focused on determining user requirements in the areas of economics, environment, safety, proliferation resistance, and recommendations in the area of so-called crosscutting issues, which are legal, institutional, and infrastructure issues accompanying the deployment of nuclear power, and is targeted at developing a methodology and guidelines for the assessment of various nuclear reactor and fuel cycle concepts and approaches. Phase 1A was finalised in June 2003 with its results now available as IAEA TECDOC-1362. Phase 1B has started in July 2003. During this phase interested Member States are performing case studies to validate the INPRO methodology and, later on, to assess selected innovative nuclear energy systems using the updated INPRO methodology. In accordance with the INPRO Terms of Reference, after successful completion of Phase I, Phase II may be initiated to examine the feasibility of commencing international projects on innovative nuclear energy systems. The paper contains a description of the current and future activities of INPRO and summarizes the outcome of the project.(author)

  16. THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING MARGIN LEVELS ON FUTURES OPTIONS PRICE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yanling GU; Juan LI

    2006-01-01

    The paper studies the effects of changing margin levels on the price of futures options and how to organize a market maker's position. Black model (1976) becomes a special case of this paper.The paper prices futures options by duplicating them and adopting the theory of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs for short). Furthermore, the price of a futures option is the unique solution to a nonlinear BSDE.

  17. The future of the Canadian oil sands: Engineering and project management advances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Madden, Peter; Morawski, Jacek

    2010-09-15

    Production technology and project management developments in Canada's oil sands industry, in the context of AMEC's experience as EPCM service provider, are discussed. Effective project management systems and workfront planning are critical to achieve cost and schedule targets and optimum construction execution. Construction Work Packages divide work into discrete pieces and Construction Work Execution Plans influence scheduling of engineering and procurement deliverables. AMEC's Engineering Data Warehouse works with intelligent engineering design tools to ensure information related to a piece of equipment is consistent across all systems. HSSE systems are proactively developed and AMEC's progressive improvement in safety performance is demonstrated.

  18. Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

    2011-01-01

    California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2. 1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  19. Effectively utilizing NYMEX contracts for natural gas electricity futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burke, L.M.

    1996-01-01

    NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) is one of the United States' largest commodity exchanges. The primary role of commodity exchanges were summarized as well as the characteristics of an effective exchange. The concept of commoditization, price risk and price volatility were explained. The evolution of world and domestic regulated energy markets, the characteristics of the futures market, NYMEX electricity futures contract specifications, natural gas and crude futures contract development, and the nature of hedging were reviewed. Differences of risk management practices in cash markets and futures markets were illustrated. tabs., figs

  20. The TRIDEC Project: Future-Saving FOSS GIS Applications for Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loewe, P.; Wächter, J.; Hammitzsch, M.

    2011-12-01

    The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 killed over 240,000 people in 14 countries and inundated the affected shorelines with waves reaching heights up to 30m. This natural disaster coincided with an information catastrophy, as potentially life-saving early warning information existed, yet no means were available to deliver it to the communities under imminent threat. Tsunami Early Warning Capabilities have improved in the meantime by continuing development of modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). However, recent tsunami events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key challenge for ongoing TEWS research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of reliable early warning messages. Since 2004, the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All TRIDEC developments are based on Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) components and industry standards where-ever possible. Tsunami Early Warning in TRIDEC is also based on mature system architecture models to ensure long-term usability and the flexibility to adapt to future generations of Tsunami sensors. All open source software produced by the project consortium are foreseen to be published on FOSSLAB, a publicly available

  1. Future projections of insured losses in the German private building sector following the A1B climatic change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Hattermann, F.; Pinto, J. G.; Ulbrich, U.; Böhm, U.; Born, K.; Büchner, M.; Donat, M. G.; Kücken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Nissen, K.; Nocke, T.; Österle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Werner, P. C.; Burghoff, O.; Broecker, U.; Kubik, A.

    2012-04-01

    We present an overview of a complementary-approaches impact project dealing with the consequences of climate change for the natural hazard branch of the insurance industry in Germany. The project was conducted by four academic institutions together with the German Insurance Association (GDV) and finalized in autumn 2011. A causal chain is modeled that goes from global warming projections over regional meteorological impacts to regional economic losses for private buildings, hereby fully covering the area of Germany. This presentation will focus on wind storm related losses, although the method developed had also been applied in part to hail and flood impact losses. For the first time, the GDV supplied their collected set of insurance cases, dating back for decades, for such an impact study. These data were used to calibrate and validate event-based damage functions which in turn were driven by three different types of regional climate models to generate storm loss projections. The regional models were driven by a triplet of ECHAM5 experiments following the A1B scenario which were found representative in the recent ENSEMBLES intercomparison study. In our multi-modeling approach we used two types of regional climate models that conceptually differ at maximum: a dynamical model (CCLM) and a statistical model based on the idea of biased bootstrapping (STARS). As a third option we pursued a hybrid approach (statistical-dynamical downscaling). For the assessment of climate change impacts, the buildings' infrastructure and their economic value is kept at current values. For all three approaches, a significant increase of average storm losses and extreme event return levels in the German private building sector is found for future decades assuming an A1B-scenario. However, the three projections differ somewhat in terms of magnitude and regional differentiation. We have developed a formalism that allows us to express the combined effect of multi-source uncertainty on return

  2. Effective wavelength calibration for moire fringe projection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purcell, Daryl; Davies, Angela; Farahi, Faramarz

    2006-01-01

    The fringe patterns seen when using moire instruments are similar to the patterns seen in traditional interferometry but differ in the spacing between consecutive fringes. In traditional interferometry, the spacing is constant and related to the wavelength of the source. In moire fringe projection, the spacing (the effective wavelength) may not be constant over the field of view and the spacing depends on the system geometry. In these cases, using a constant effective wavelength over the field of view causes inaccurate surface height measurements. We examine the calibration process of the moirefringe projection measurement, which takes this varying wavelength into account to produce a pixel-by-pixel wavelength map. The wavelength calibration procedure is to move the object in the out-of-plane direction a known distance until every pixel intensity value goes through at least one cycle. A sinusoidal function is then fit to the data to extract the effective wavelength pixel by pixel, yielding an effective wavelength map. A calibrated step height was used to validate the effective wavelength map with results within 1% of the nominal value of the step height. The error sources that contributed to the uncertainty in determining the height of the artifact are also investigated

  3. PROJECT AND ACTON STAGE OD DESIGNING FUTURE MUSIC TEACHERS’ ETHNOCULTURAL TRAINING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Jiayu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In the article the issue of developing future music teachers’ ethnocultural training in the process of their professional training is revealed. The author emphasizes on the relevance of the issue as future music teachers’ ethnocultural training contributes to, on the one hand, completing mastering the national system of cultural values of native people by students of higher musical educational institutions and, on the other hand, involving perception and understanding of other nations’ cultural values, allowing future music teachers to transmit values expressed by the young generation to their professional activity. It is reported that the main feature of future music teachers’ ethnocultural training is a system of ethnic and cultural values which is the background of musical and psychological-pedagogical and art training; it is actively engaged as value tools musical folk art and national art. Value methods that are involved in the process of training are methods of traditional pedagogy, as well as the basis of pedagogical communication – people’s ethics. It is noted that developing future music teachers’ ethnocultural training requires designing the special methodology. The constant items of this methodology are thought to be the forms, methods, techniques and means of pedagogical and ethnopedagogical impacts as tools for developing students’ ethnopedagogical thinking in the process of musical and pedagogical activities; the system of controlling future music teachers’ ethnopedagogical, ethnological, ethnomusical knowledge and skills as a combination of methods that enables an opportunity to compare the level of mastering the knowledge and skills at different stages of educational process; to organize tuition using innovative technologies. The special attention is paid to professional and active component of this methodology. The diagnostic tests according to the criterion of “a degree of professional effectiveness in

  4. A Framework for Effective Software Monitoring in Project Management

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A Framework for Effective Software Monitoring in Project Management. ... is shown to provide meaningful interpretation of collected metric data by embedding certain quality function. Key words: Project Management, Feedback, project control, metrics, process model, quantitative validity ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  5. Projecting future temperature-related mortality in three largest Australian cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Liu, De Li; Chen, Dong; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu

    2016-01-01

    We estimated net annual temperature-related mortality in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Australia using 62 global climate model projections under three IPPC SRES CO_2 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). In all cities, all scenarios resulted in increases in summer temperature-related deaths for future decades, and decreases in winter temperature-related deaths. However, Brisbane and Sydney will increase the net annual temperature-related deaths in the future, while a slight decrease will happen in Melbourne. Additionally, temperature-related mortality will largely increase beyond the summer (including January, February, March, November and December) in Brisbane and Sydney, while temperature-related mortality will largely decrease beyond the winter in Melbourne. In conclusion, temperature increases for Australia are expected to result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city. In particular, the seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths will be shifted. - Temperature increases result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city in Australia.

  6. Current status and future direction of INPRO (International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omoto, Akira; Moriwaki, Masanao; Sugimoto, Jun; Nakai, Ryodai

    2007-01-01

    INPRO is an international forum to consider jointly the international and national actions required to achieve desired innovations in nuclear reactors and fuel cycles so as to ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to a sustainable development of the human, and IAEA becomes the secretariat for INPRO. The number of the members counts 28 by recent participation of Japan and U.S.A. now, and it is a unique forum to bring together both technology users and technology holders, that includes 5 countries which do not still have nuclear power generation. Until now it was phase I, and focused its activities to make clear the desired characteristics of nuclear energy system toward the future, and to develop methodology to evaluate various nuclear energy systems, but it shifted to phase II from July, 2006, and it planned three areas of activities such as improvement of evaluation methodology, institutional/infrastructure oriented activities and a collaborative project of technology development. Current status and future direction of INPRO was presented to encourage Japan in significant contributions of these three areas. (T. Tanaka)

  7. Financing arrangements for nuclear power projects - past and present experience and future expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ispas, G.

    2004-01-01

    The intent of the author of the present paper is to demonstrate, in a practical manner, the role of the past experience and the new approaches of the nuclear projects financing, especially as nuclear generation financing in developing countries involves complex issues that need to be fully understood and dealt with by all the parties involved, namely: high investment costs, generally long construction periods, a high degree of uncertainty with respect to costs and schedule and to public acceptance, particularly because of safety, waste disposal and non-proliferation issues. Moreover, as many associations whose activities consist of ensuring and facilitating at different levels the exchange of knowledge between generations, i.e.: European Nuclear Society (ENS) Young Generation, North American Young Generation in Nuclear (NA-YGN), the goal of the paper is also to outline the importance of the education in nuclear field, i.e. training a young team of specialists to be ready to take over the movement and responsibility in continuing the further development of nuclear program in Romania, mainly with view to the Financing Arrangements for Nuclear Power Projects. The first part of the paper is referring to general financing procedures, while the second part is focusing on a case study related to the: past experience the financing scheme of Cernavoda NPP Unit 1, present or actual experience ongoing financing issues for Cernavoda NPP Unit 2 and potential future shared contribution to the financing of the next Cernavoda NPP units.(author)

  8. Ischaemic heart disease deaths in Brazil: current trends, regional disparities and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena, Cristina P; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Schio, Nicolle Amboni; Sabbag, Ary Elias; Guarita-Souza, Luiz Cesar; Olandoski, Marcia; Franco, Oscar H; Faria-Neto, José Rocha

    2013-09-01

    To quantify the trend of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths in Brazil during the last decade (2000-2010) for various population characteristics and to forecast the upcoming mortality trends across regions in Brazil until the year 2015. Nationwide comparative observational study. The population studied encompassed all adult residents (≥ 20 years) living in five Brazilian regions between 2000 and 2010. Demographic, economic and mortality data were obtained from Brazilian National Mortality Data System and National Applied Economics Research Institute. Subnotified deaths were redistributed proportionally to IHD deaths. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 inhabitants, by sex and region, were calculated employing a standard Brazilian population and constructing multivariate regression models to quantify and to project temporal trends. Absolute numbers of death due to IHD and region-specific death rates in Brazil by age and sex. During the study period, 627 786 men and 452 690 women died due to IHD in Brazil. ASMR trends across all regions for men and women converged, driven by a declining trend in the South and Southeast and an opposite incline in the North and Northeast (p < 0.05). Future projections demonstrated potential widening of the observed North-South gap in coming years. The IHD death trend in Brazil has changed from a decline to a stagnant state. However, a significant discrepancy in mortality trends exists between the northern and southern regions, which is likely to widen further. Reappraisal of the public health policies tailored to populations with diverse socioeconomic structures is urgently required.

  9. Temporal Compounding of Heat Waves in the Present and Projected Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, J. W.; Dessy, J.; Vecchi, G. A.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2017-12-01

    The hazard of heat waves is projected to increase significantly with global warming, motivating much recent research characterizing various aspects of these extreme events. One less examined aspect of heat waves is their temporal structure. Here we first modify existing heat wave duration definitions to flexibly account for a variety of possible heat wave temporal structures (sequences of hot and cooler days). We then examine past heat waves associated with high mortality using observational reanalysis data, and note that many past heat waves might be better described as series of hot days compounded together with short breaks of cooler days in between. We employ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global climate model (GCM) simulations to compare the frequency of these compound heat waves in the present and projected future with higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our results indicate that temporally compound heatwaves will constitute a greater proportion of heat wave risk with global warming. Via examining synthetic autoregressive model data, we propose that this phenomenon is expected when shifting the mean of a time series with some memory and noise. Notably, an increased proportion of compound events implies that vulnerability from prior hot days will play an increasingly large role in heat wave risk, with possible implications for both heat wave-related policy and preparedness.

  10. Future Arctic marine access: analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Rogers

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's first component is an observationally based evaluation of Arctic sea ice trends during 1980–2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice loss has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum (January–March extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A lead–lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice. The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants and synthesize model performance across several different studies. The best performing models project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through 2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1–3 months. This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including shipping and resource development opportunities.

  11. Chicago Clean Air, Clean Water Project: Environmental Monitoring for a Healthy, Sustainable Urban Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none, none; Tuchman, Nancy [Institute of Environmental Sustainability (IES), Chicago, IL (United States)

    2015-11-11

    The U.S. Department of Energy awarded Loyola University Chicago and the Institute of Environmental Sustainability (IES) $486,000.00 for the proposal entitled “Chicago clean air, clean water project: Environmental monitoring for a healthy, sustainable urban future.” The project supported the purchase of analytical instruments for the development of an environmental analytical laboratory. The analytical laboratory is designed to support the testing of field water and soil samples for nutrients, industrial pollutants, heavy metals, and agricultural toxins, with special emphasis on testing Chicago regional soils and water affected by coal-based industry. Since the award was made in 2010, the IES has been launched (fall 2013), and the IES acquired a new state-of-the-art research and education facility on Loyola University Chicago’s Lakeshore campus. Two labs were included in the research and education facility. The second floor lab is the Ecology Laboratory where lab experiments and analyses are conducted on soil, plant, and water samples. The third floor lab is the Environmental Toxicology Lab where lab experiments on environmental toxins are conducted, as well as analytical tests conducted on water, soil, and plants. On the south end of the Environmental Toxicology Lab is the analytical instrumentation collection purchased from the present DOE grant, which is overseen by a full time Analytical Chemist (hired January 2016), who maintains the instruments, conducts analyses on samples, and helps to train faculty and undergraduate and graduate student researchers.

  12. Overview of ITER project. Objective, history, status of development, structure and its future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuda, S.

    2003-01-01

    The objective of ITER Project is to demonstrate the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy for peaceful use. To achieve this goal, the Conceptual Design Activities (CDA 1988-1990) and the Engineering Design Activities (EDA 1992-2001) were conducted by the joint effort of EU, Japan, RF and US under the auspices of IAEA. Engineering design has been developed consistently with plasma physics databases obtained by the world-wide magnetic fusion devices up to and during the EDA. Technology R and D including development, manufacturing and testing of scalable models of major components have been also conducted and ensured manufacturing and technical feasibility of ITER. Such technical readiness to start ITER construction urged formal government negotiation initially by Canada, EU, Japan and RF, and intense meetings have been held since November 2001. The US and China have joined since Feb. 2003. Four candidate sites have been proposed by Canada, EU and Japan for construction and have been evaluated. Once the agreement will be made, the construction takes about 10 years to complete, followed by the operation and exploitation phase lasting about 20 years. This paper gives an overview of ITER Project including its role in the long range fusion program, history, status of development, collaboration structure and its future program. (author)

  13. Projected future climate changes in the context of geological and geomorphological hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liggins, Felicity; Betts, Richard A; McGuire, Bill

    2010-05-28

    On palaeoclimate time scales, enhanced levels of geological and geomorphological activity have been linked to climatic factors, including examples of processes that are expected to be important in current and future anthropogenic climate change. Planetary warming leading to increased rainfall, ice-mass loss and rising sea levels is potentially relevant to geospheric responses in many geologically diverse regions. Anthropogenic climate change, therefore, has the potential to alter the risk of geological and geomorphological hazards through the twenty-first century and beyond. Here, we review climate change projections from both global and regional climate models in the context of geohazards. In assessing the potential for geospheric responses to climate change, it appears prudent to consider regional levels of warming of 2 degrees C above average pre-industrial temperature as being potentially unavoidable as an influence on processes requiring a human adaptation response within this century. At the other end of the scale when considering changes that could be avoided by reduction of emissions, scenarios of unmitigated warming exceeding 4 degrees C in the global average include much greater local warming in some regions. However, considerable further work is required to better understand the uncertainties associated with these projections, uncertainties inherent not only in the climate modelling but also in the linkages between climate change and geospheric responses.

  14. Future energy research in the EU under EIT conditions-pilot projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puehringer-Oppermann, Franziska; Bele, Petra; Bussar, Rainer; Stimming, Ulrich [TUM, Dept. of Physics, E19, James-Franck Str. 1, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    The European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) has been established in April 2008. It is an independent organisation with the administrative head in Budapest, a governing board, an executive committee and a chairman. The EIT budget until 2012 is 308 MEUR. EIT will operate through the formation of Knowledge and Innovation Communities (KICs). The first three KICs are foreseen in the areas sustainable energy, ICT and climate mitigation. The European Commission has sponsored four pilot projects (conducted 2008-2009) to help develop a suitable governance structure for cooperations on European scale such as the future KICs. They are Bridge, ComplexEIT, SUCCESS and Gast, dealing with different topics like nanomedicine (Bridge), integration of hardware and software (ComplexEIT), sustainable energy (SUCCESS) and green and safe road transportation (Gast). The strategic objective of these pilot projects is to design, implement and test new models of cooperation in the knowledge triangle. We are involved in SUCCESS and after benchmarking of 66 collaborations in the field sustainable energy, the state of the art of selected representative topics was asessed and shortcomings in governance evaluated by SWOT analysis. In parallel further existing collaborations were used to extract and establish a management structure for such collaborations on the European scale.

  15. Status and Future Perspectives of the HIE-Isolde Project at CERN

    CERN Document Server

    Kadi, Y; Blumenfeld, Y; Calatroni, S; Catherall, R; Fraser, M A; Goddard, B; Parchet, D; Siesling, E; Venturini Delsolaro, W; Voulot, D; Williams, L R

    2012-01-01

    The High Intensity and Energy (HIE)-ISOLDE project aims at several important upgrades of the present ISOLDE radioactive beam facility at CERN. The main focus lies in the energy upgrade of the post-accelerated radionuclide beams from 3 MeV/u up to 10 MeV/u through the addition of superconducting cavities. This will open the possibility of many new types of experiments including transfer reactions throughout the nuclear chart. The first stage of this upgrade involves the design, construction, installation and commissioning of two high-β cryomodules downstream of REX-ISOLDE, the existing post-accelerator. Each cryomodule houses five high-β superconducting cavities and one superconducting solenoid. Prototypes of the Nb-sputtered Quarter Wave Resonators (QWRs) cavities for the new superconducting linear accelerator have been manufactured and are undergoing RF cold tests. The project also includes a design study of improved production targets to accommodate to the future increase of proton intensity delivered by ...

  16. The climate of the Eastern Seaboard of Australia: A challenging entity now and for future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timbal, Bertrand

    2010-01-01

    The Eastern SeaBoard (ESB) of Australia has long been recognised as a separate climate entity. Using the latest gridded observations from the Bureau of Meteorology, a definition of the spatial extent of the ESB is proposed. It appears that, while this area has recorded below average rainfall over the last 12 years, the ongoing deficiency is not record breaking in historic terms. This contrasts with record breaking droughts across large parts of inland, eastern Australia. The lesser severity of ongoing rainfall deficiencies in the ESB, compared to the rest of the region, is linked to the different impact of observed changes in regional surface pressure and, in particular, changes in the position of the sub-tropical ridge. It is also observed that while tropical modes of variability in the Pacific and Indian oceans are known to influence the climate of eastern Australia, that influence appears very weak and not statistically significant across the ESB. Finally, some issues relevant to future rainfall projections for the ESB are discussed. It is argued that providing reliable climate projections across this climatic region is a difficult challenge.

  17. Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust

  18. submitter Status of the Demonstrator Magnets for the EuCARD-2 Future Magnets Project

    CERN Document Server

    Kirby, G; Badel, A; Bajko, M; Ballarino, A; Bottura, L; Dhalle, M; Durante, M; Fazilleau, P; Fleiter, J; Goldacker, W; Haro, E; Himbele, J; Kario, A; Langeslag, S; Lorin, C; Murtzomaki, J; van Nugteren, J; de Rijk, G; Salmi, T; Senatore, C; Stenvall, A; Tixador, P; Usoskin, A; Volpini, G; Yang, Y; Zangenberg, N

    2016-01-01

    EuCARD-2 is a project partly supported by FP7 European Commission aiming at exploring accelerator magnet technology for 20-T dipole operating field. The EuCARD-2 collaboration is liaising with similar programs for high-field magnets in the U.S. and Japan. EuCARD-2 focuses, through the work package 10 “future magnets,” on the development of a 10-kA-class superconducting high-current-density cable suitable for accelerator magnets, for a 5-T stand-alone dipole of 40-mm bore and about 1-m length. After stand-alone testing, the magnet will be inserted in a large bore background dipole, 10-18 T. This paper reports on the design and development of models, which are called Feather0, wound with REBCO Roebel cable. Based on aligned block design to take advantage of the anisotropy of the REBCO tapes, Feather0 is a precursor of Feather2, which should reach the project goals in 2016. Feather0 is planned to be tested both in stand alone and as an insert mounted in the CERN Fresca facility providing 10-T background fiel...

  19. Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet energy balance driving the surface melt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Franco

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, simulations at 25 km resolution are performed over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, using the regional climate model MAR forced by four RCP scenarios from three CMIP5 global circulation models (GCMs, in order to investigate the projected changes of the surface energy balance (SEB components driving the surface melt. Analysis of 2000–2100 melt anomalies compared to melt results over 1980–1999 reveals an exponential relationship of the GrIS surface melt rate simulated by MAR to the near-surface air temperature (TAS anomalies, mainly due to the surface albedo positive feedback associated with the extension of bare ice areas in summer. On the GrIS margins, the future melt anomalies are preferentially driven by stronger sensible heat fluxes, induced by enhanced warm air advection over the ice sheet. Over the central dry snow zone, the surface albedo positive feedback induced by the increase in summer melt exceeds the negative feedback of heavier snowfall for TAS anomalies higher than 4 °C. In addition to the incoming longwave flux increase associated with the atmosphere warming, GCM-forced MAR simulations project an increase of the cloud cover decreasing the ratio of the incoming shortwave versus longwave radiation and dampening the albedo feedback. However, it should be noted that this trend in the cloud cover is contrary to that simulated by ERA-Interim–forced MAR for recent climate conditions, where the observed melt increase since the 1990s seems mainly to be a consequence of more anticyclonic atmospheric conditions. Finally, no significant change is projected in the length of the melt season, which highlights the importance of solar radiation absorbed by the ice sheet surface in the melt SEB.

  20. Projections of the current and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Scott A; Dahlui, Maznah; Mohamed, Rosmawati; Naning, Herlianna; Shabaruddin, Fatiha Hana; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba

    2015-01-01

    The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia has been estimated at 2.5% of the adult population. Our objective, satisfying one of the directives of the WHO Framework for Global Action on Viral Hepatitis, was to forecast the HCV disease burden in Malaysia using modelling methods. An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed. In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039. The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia.

  1. Revealing, Reducing, and Representing Uncertainties in New Hydrologic Projections for Climate-changed Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Jeffrey; Clark, Martyn; Gutmann, Ethan; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Rasmussen, Roy

    2016-04-01

    The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has had primary responsibility for multi-purpose water resource operations on most of the major river systems in the U.S. for more than 200 years. In that time, the USACE projects and programs making up those operations have proved mostly robust against the range of natural climate variability encountered over their operating life spans. However, in some watersheds and for some variables, climate change now is known to be shifting the hydroclimatic baseline around which that natural variability occurs and changing the range of that variability as well. This makes historical stationarity an inappropriate basis for assessing continued project operations under climate-changed futures. That means new hydroclimatic projections are required at multiple scales to inform decisions about specific threats and impacts, and for possible adaptation responses to limit water-resource vulnerabilities and enhance operational resilience. However, projections of possible future hydroclimatologies have myriad complex uncertainties that require explicit guidance for interpreting and using them to inform those decisions about climate vulnerabilities and resilience. Moreover, many of these uncertainties overlap and interact. Recent work, for example, has shown the importance of assessing the uncertainties from multiple sources including: global model structure [Meehl et al., 2005; Knutti and Sedlacek, 2013]; internal climate variability [Deser et al., 2012; Kay et al., 2014]; climate downscaling methods [Gutmann et al., 2012; Mearns et al., 2013]; and hydrologic models [Addor et al., 2014; Vano et al., 2014; Mendoza et al., 2015]. Revealing, reducing, and representing these uncertainties is essential for defining the plausible quantitative climate change narratives required to inform water-resource decision-making. And to be useful, such quantitative narratives, or storylines, of climate change threats and hydrologic impacts must sample

  2. The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

    2013-12-01

    At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.

  3. Sorghum production under future climate in the Southwestern USA: model projections of yield, greenhouse gas emissions and soil C fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duval, B.; Ghimire, R.; Hartman, M. D.; Marsalis, M.

    2016-12-01

    Large tracts of semi-arid land in the Southwestern USA are relatively less important for food production than the US Corn Belt, and represent a promising area for expansion of biofuel/bioproduct crops. However, high temperatures, low available water and high solar radiation in the SW represent a challenge to suitable feedstock development, and future climate change scenarios predict that portions of the SW will experience increased temperature and temporal shifts in precipitation distribution. Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) is a valuable forage crop with promise as a biofuel feedstock, given its high biomass under semi-arid conditions, relatively lower N fertilizer requirements compared to corn, and salinity tolerance. To evaluate the environmental impact of expanded sorghum cultivation under future climate in the SW USA, we used the DayCent model in concert with a suite of downscaled future weather projections to predict biogeochemical consequences (greenhouse gas flux and impacts on soil carbon) of sorghum cultivation in New Mexico. The model showed good correspondence with yield data from field trials including both dryland and irrigated sorghum (measured vs. modeled; r2 = 0.75). Simulation experiments tested the effect of dryland production versus irrigation, low N versus high N inputs and delayed fertilizer application. Nitrogen application timing and irrigation impacted yield and N2O emissions less than N rate and climate. Across N and irrigation treatments, future climate simulations resulted in 6% increased yield and 20% lower N2O emissions compared to current climate. Soil C pools declined under future climate. The greatest declines in soil C were from low N input sorghum simulations, regardless of irrigation (>20% declines in SOM in both cases), and requires further evaluation to determine if changing future climate is driving these declines, or if they are a function of prolonged sorghum-fallow rotations in the model. The relatively small gain in yield for

  4. Capital effectiveness in a capital intensive project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yarossi, M.E. (IPA Institute, The Hague (Netherlands))

    2009-07-01

    The technical difficulty of incorporating new technology in capital intensive projects has been underestimated. Bio-refineries projects are no exemption. These projects in many occasions have assigned inadequate project resources, such as lean project teams and overly optimistic contingencies. Furthermore, project developers have set unrealistic expectations; for example: aggressive schedule duration, low cost targets and optimistic operability targets. These project drivers set before project's authorization compromise the project's outcome. In many cases, this translates into lower return on investment, higher costs, and lower operability. In order to counteract these outcomes, it is critical for capital intensive projects, like bio-refineries, to have a well define project which will enable to increase its chance of success. IPA's research has shown that bio-refineries projects have poor project performance due to poor project practices, lack of owner project controls and inadequate change management. An adequate risk analysis during definition is a critical component of a project's success, especially when there is new technology, like biomass conversion. It is of outmost importance to asses this technology and set realistic expectations. parallel to this, there is a need to have a well established execution strategy, which should be maintained throughout the execution of the project. In conclusion, IPA's research has indicated that bio-refineries, as any other capital intensive project, need to assign adequate resources at an early state of project development, by making sure there is and adequate team in place, reasonable schedule, technical difficulties evaluation, and keeping control during execution. Although these elements might be seen as common practices that should be taken into account when developing a project, many projects being their execution without having a proper foundation, and thus affecting the project

  5. Future climate and wildfire: ecosystem projections of area burned in the western US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littell, J. S.; Duffy, P.; Battisti, D. S.; McKenzie, D.; Peterson, D. L.

    2010-12-01

    The area burned by fire in ecosystems of the western United States has been closely linked to climate in the paleoecological record and in the modern record. Statistical models of area burned show that the climatic controls on area burned vary with vegetation type (Littell et al. 2009). In more arid or systems (grasslands, shrublands, woodlands), antecedent climatic controls on fire were associated first with the production of fuels and secondarily with drought in the year of fire. These relationships typically manifested as wetter and sometimes cooler conditions in the seasons prior to the fire season. Area burned in forest ecosystems and some woodlands was primarily associated with drought conditions, specifically increased temperature and decreased precipitation in the year of fire and the seasons leading up to the fire season. These climatic controls indicate the role of climate in drying existing fuels. Statistical fire models trained on the late 20th century for ecoprovinces in the West would be useful for projecting area burned, at least until vegetation type conversion driven by climate and disturbance occurs. To that end, we used ~ 2.5 degree gridded future climate fields derived for a multi-GCM ensemble of 1C and 2C temperature increase forcing to develop future ecoprovince monthly and seasonal average temperature and associated precipitation and used these as predictors in statistical fire models of future projected area burned. We also conducted modeling scenarios with the ensemble temperature increase paired with historical precipitation. Most ecoprovinces had increases in area burned, with a range of ~ 67% to over 600% . Ecoprovinces that are primarily sensitive to precipitation changes exhibit smaller increases than those most sensitive to temperature (forest systems). We also developed exceedance probabilities. Some ecoprovinces show large increases in area burned but low exceedance probabilities, suggest that the area burned is concentrated more

  6. Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  7. Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslava Garza

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America.We forecast the future (2050 distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3 and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2 were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change.The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change.

  8. The clinical endocrinology workforce: current status and future projections of supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigersky, Robert A; Fish, Lisa; Hogan, Paul; Stewart, Andrew; Kutler, Stephanie; Ladenson, Paul W; McDermott, Michael; Hupart, Kenneth H

    2014-09-01

    Many changes in health care delivery, health legislation, and the physician workforce that affect the supply and demand for endocrinology services have occurred since the first published workforce study of adult endocrinologists in 2003. The objective of the study was to assess the current adult endocrinology workforce data and provide the first analysis of the pediatric endocrinology workforce and to project the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025. A workforce model was developed from an analysis of proprietary and publicly available databases, consultation with a technical expert panel, and the results of an online survey of board-certified endocrinologists. The Endocrine Society commissioned The Lewin Group to estimate current supply and to project gaps between supply and demand for endocrinologists. A technical expert panel of senior endocrinologists provided context, clinical information, and direction. The following were measured: 1) the current adult and pediatric endocrinology workforce and the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025 and 2) the number of additional entrants into the endocrinology work pool that would be required to close the gap between supply and demand. Currently there is a shortage of approximately 1500 adult and 100 pediatric full-time equivalent endocrinologists. The gap for adult endocrinologists will expand to 2700 without an increase in the number of fellows trained. An increase in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus further expands the demand for adult endocrinologists. The gap can be closed in 5 and 10 years by increasing the number of fellowship positions by 14.4% and 5.5% per year, respectively. The gap between supply and demand for pediatric endocrinologists will close by 2016, and thereafter an excess supply over demand will develop at the current rate of new entrants into the work force. There are insufficient adult endocrinologists to satisfy current and future demand. A number of proactive

  9. [Population projection and its principal components: the future model of population in the province of Alicante].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman Mora, E

    1994-01-01

    "In this article we analyze the different demographic patterns defining the population in the province of Alicante [Spain]. The behaviour of the demographic factors in the past and in the present is studied here, and a series of models are put into practice in order to foresee the future pattern of population.... The result shows either the effect of a possible ageing in an already aged population, as is the case of the province of Alicante, or what the job market would have to endure if the above mentioned ageing took place, increased by the possibility of an inmigration of an older population." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) excerpt

  10. The Results of Development of the Project ZOOINT and its Future Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnov, I. S.; Lobanov, A. L.; Alimov, A. F.; Medvedev, S. G.; Golikov, A. A.

    future of most advanced technologies of development of the DB (for example, usage of the XML platform) and, eventually, building of the modern information systems. The work on the project is carried out at support of the RFBR grant N 02-07-90217; programs "The Information system on a biodiversity of Russia" and Project N 15 "Antarctic Regions".

  11. ENGINEERING STUDY FOR THE 200 AREA EFFLUENT TREATMENT FACILITY (ETF) SECONDARY WASTE TREATMENT OF PROJECTED FUTURE WASTE FEEDS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LUECK, K.J.

    2004-01-01

    This report documents an engineering study conducted to evaluate alternatives for treating secondary waste in the secondary treatment train (STT) of the Hanford Site 200 Area Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF). The study evaluates ETF STT treatment alternatives and recommends preferred alternatives for meeting the projected future missions of the ETF. The preferred alternative(s) will process projected future ETF influents to produce a solid waste acceptable for final disposal on the Hanford Site. The main text of this report summarizes the ETF past and projected operations, lists the assumptions about projected operations that provide the basis for the engineering evaluation, and summarizes the evaluation process. The evaluation process includes identification of available modifications to the current ETF process, screens those modifications for technical viability, evaluates the technically viable alternatives, and provides conclusions and recommendations based on that evaluation

  12. Taking stock of project value creation: A structured literature review with future directions for research and practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Markus; Svejvig, Per

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims to take stock of what we know about project value creation and to present future directions for research and practice. We performed an explorative and unstructured literature review, which was subsequently paired with a structured literature review. We join several research areas...... by adopting the project value creation perspective on literature relating to benefits, value, performance, and success in projects. Our review includes 111 contributions analyzed through both an inductive and deductive approach. We find that relevant literature dates back to the early 1980s, and the still...... developing value-centric view has been the subject of many publications in recent years. We contribute to research on project value creation through four directions for future research: rejuvenating value management through combining value, benefits, and costs; supplementing value creation with value capture...

  13. Carbon burnout project-coal fineness effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mike Celechin [Powergen UK plc, Nottingham (United Kingdom)

    2004-02-01

    The aim of this DTI project is to establish good quality plant and rig data to demonstrate the effect of changing coal fineness on carbon burnout in a controlled manner, which can then be used to support computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and engineering models of the process. The modelling elements of the project were completed by Mitsui Babcock Energy Ltd., and validated using the data produced by the other partners. The full scale plant trials were successfully completed at Powergen's Kingsnorth Power Station and a full set of tests were also completed on Powergen's CTF. During these test both carbon-in-ash and NOx levels were seen to increase with increasing fuel particle size. Laboratory analysis of fly ash produced during the plant and rig trials revealed that only small differences in char morphology and reactivity could be detected in samples produced under significantly different operating conditions. Thermo Gravimetric Analysis was also undertaken on a range of PF size fractions collected form mills operating at different conditions. 3 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab.

  14. Projecting biodiversity and wood production in future forest landscapes: 15 key modeling considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felton, Adam; Ranius, Thomas; Roberge, Jean-Michel; Öhman, Karin; Lämås, Tomas; Hynynen, Jari; Juutinen, Artti; Mönkkönen, Mikko; Nilsson, Urban; Lundmark, Tomas; Nordin, Annika

    2017-07-15

    A variety of modeling approaches can be used to project the future development of forest systems, and help to assess the implications of different management alternatives for biodiversity and ecosystem services. This diversity of approaches does however present both an opportunity and an obstacle for those trying to decide which modeling technique to apply, and interpreting the management implications of model output. Furthermore, the breadth of issues relevant to addressing key questions related to forest ecology, conservation biology, silviculture, economics, requires insights stemming from a number of distinct scientific disciplines. As forest planners, conservation ecologists, ecological economists and silviculturalists, experienced with modeling trade-offs and synergies between biodiversity and wood biomass production, we identified fifteen key considerations relevant to assessing the pros and cons of alternative modeling approaches. Specifically we identified key considerations linked to study question formulation, modeling forest dynamics, forest processes, study landscapes, spatial and temporal aspects, and the key response metrics - biodiversity and wood biomass production, as well as dealing with trade-offs and uncertainties. We also provide illustrative examples from the modeling literature stemming from the key considerations assessed. We use our findings to reiterate the need for explicitly addressing and conveying the limitations and uncertainties of any modeling approach taken, and the need for interdisciplinary research efforts when addressing the conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of environmental resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in East Asia Simulated by the MRI CGCM2

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Akio KITOH; Masahiro HOSAKA; Yukimasa ADACHI; Kenji KAMIGUCHI

    2005-01-01

    Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21st century and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-member ensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model (MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios. It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while both the frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a few percent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the rest of the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases, suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. South China is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitation intensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warming and an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone,which may be related with an El Ni(n)o-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease in summer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipit ation contrast more in the future.

  16. New Zealand's neurologist workforce: a pragmatic analysis of demand, supply and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranta, Annemarei Anna; Tiwari, Priyesh; Mottershead, John; Abernethy, David; Simpson, Mark; Brickell, Kiri; Lynch, Christopher; Walker, Elizabeth; Frith, Richard

    2015-08-07

    To estimate current and future specialist neurologist demand and supply to assist with health sector planning. Current demand for the neurology workforce in New Zealand was assessed using neuroepidemiological data. To assess current supply, all New Zealand neurology departments were surveyed to determine current workforce and estimate average neurologist productivity. Projections were made based on current neurologists anticipated retirement rates and addition of new neurologists based on current training positions. We explored several models to address the supply-demand gap. The current supply of neurologists in New Zealand is 36 full-time equivalents (FTE), insufficient to meet current demand of 74 FTE. Demand will grow over time and if status quo is maintained the gap will widen. Pressures on healthcare dollars are ever increasing and we cannot expect to address the identified service gap by immediately doubling the number of neurologists. Instead we propose a 12-year strategic approach with investments to enhance service productivity, strengthen collaborative efforts between specialists and general service providers, moderately increase the number of neurologists and neurology training positions, and develop highly skilled non-specialists including trained.

  17. Characteristics of the process of culture development project activities (culture of social engineering) at the future bachelors of social work

    OpenAIRE

    Natalya I. Nikitina; Elena Yu. Romanovaa; Tatyana V. Vasilyeva; Irina N. Nikishina; Veronica M. Grebennikova

    2017-01-01

    In modern Russia professional activity productivity of social work specialist depends largely on his abilities and skills in the field of social design. University graduate`s (social work bachelor`s) high level of professional-project activity culture can be regarded as one of the necessary conditions of successful labour market adaptation of young specialists in social sphere institutions. The article discusses various aspects of future social work bachelors` vocational project activity cult...

  18. Evaluation of future policy instruments - Sub-Project 2; Utvaerdering av framtida styrmedel - Delprojekt 2 inom projektet Perspektiv paa framtida avfallsbehandling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bisaillon, Mattias; Dahlen, Lisa; Detterfelt, Lia; Edner, Stig; Toren, Johan

    2013-09-01

    There are several recently introduced and future possible policy instruments that are of great interest to study in order to understand the future for the Swedish waste treatment market. In the energy sector, the use of system analysis models has proven to be effective in order to understand the effects and consequences of policy instruments. In the waste sector, however, such analyses have only been conducted sporadically. This in spite of the introduction of highly influential policy instruments such as producer responsibility, landfill tax and landfill ban, which together have contributed to landfilling of Swedish household waste practically has ceased. The goal of this project was, by using system analysis models, to study and evaluate the newly introduced and future possible policy instruments which affect Swedish waste treatment. The assessment was made in terms of how policy instruments affect: - the distribution of treatment technologies, - waste amounts, - greenhouse gas emissions and - the economics of waste treatment. The project was performed during 2011 and 2012 as a part of the research project 'Perspectives on sustainable waste treatment (PFA)'. During the project, discussions have taken place within the working group and the reference group on which instruments are most interesting and relevant to study. Furthermore, opinions have been gathered from the association Swedish Waste Managements policy instrument group and from various players in the industry at conferences, presentations and workshops.

  19. Strategies towards a 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in the Future Climate Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    2009-01-01

    energy system by the year 2050 are presented. Two short term transition target years in the process towards this goal are analysed for 2015 and 2030. The analyses reveal that implementing energy savings, renewable energy and more efficient conversion technologies can have positive socioeconomic effects......, create employment and potentially lead to large earnings on exports. If externalities such as health effects etc. are included, even more benefits can be expected. 100 per cent renewable energy systems will be technically possible in the future, and may even be economically beneficial compared......Greenhouse gas mitigation strategies are generally considered costly with world leaders often engaging in debate concerning the costs of mitigation and the distribution of these costs between different countries. In this paper, the analyses and results of the design of a 100 per cent renewable...

  20. Navigating Bioethical Waters: Two Pilot Projects in Problem-Based Learning for Future Bioscience and Biotechnology Professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Roberta M; Levine, Aaron D; Kirkman, Robert; Blake, Laura Palucki; Drake, Matthew

    2016-12-01

    We believe that the professional responsibility of bioscience and biotechnology professionals includes a social responsibility to contribute to the resolution of ethically fraught policy problems generated by their work. It follows that educators have a professional responsibility to prepare future professionals to discharge this responsibility. This essay discusses two pilot projects in ethics pedagogy focused on particularly challenging policy problems, which we call "fractious problems". The projects aimed to advance future professionals' acquisition of "fractious problem navigational" skills, a set of skills designed to enable broad and deep understanding of fractious problems and the design of good policy resolutions for them. A secondary objective was to enhance future professionals' motivation to apply these skills to help their communities resolve these problems. The projects employed "problem based learning" courses to advance these learning objectives. A new assessment instrument, "Skills for Science/Engineering Ethics Test" (SkillSET), was designed and administered to measure the success of the courses in doing so. This essay first discusses the rationale for the pilot projects, and then describes the design of the pilot courses and presents the results of our assessment using SkillSET in the first pilot project and the revised SkillSET 2.0 in the second pilot project. The essay concludes with discussion of observations and results.

  1. How does dynamical downscaling affect model biases and future projections of explosive extratropical cyclones along North America's Atlantic coast?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiler, C.; Zwiers, F. W.; Hodges, K. I.; Scinocca, J. F.

    2018-01-01

    Explosive extratropical cyclones (EETCs) are rapidly intensifying low pressure systems that generate severe weather along North America's Atlantic coast. Global climate models (GCMs) tend to simulate too few EETCs, perhaps partly due to their coarse horizontal resolution and poorly resolved moist diabatic processes. This study explores whether dynamical downscaling can reduce EETC frequency biases, and whether this affects future projections of storms along North America's Atlantic coast. A regional climate model (CanRCM4) is forced with the CanESM2 GCM for the periods 1981 to 2000 and 2081 to 2100. EETCs are tracked from relative vorticity using an objective feature tracking algorithm. CanESM2 simulates 38% fewer EETC tracks compared to reanalysis data, which is consistent with a negative Eady growth rate bias (-0.1 day^{-1}). Downscaling CanESM2 with CanRCM4 increases EETC frequency by one third, which reduces the frequency bias to -22%, and increases maximum EETC precipitation by 22%. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is projected to decrease EETC frequency (-15%, -18%) and Eady growth rate (-0.2 day^{-1}, -0.2 day^{-1}), and increase maximum EETC precipitation (46%, 52%) in CanESM2 and CanRCM4, respectively. The limited effect of dynamical downscaling on EETC frequency projections is consistent with the lack of impact on the maximum Eady growth rate. The coarse spatial resolution of GCMs presents an important limitation for simulating extreme ETCs, but Eady growth rate biases are likely just as relevant. Further bias reductions could be achieved by addressing processes that lead to an underestimation of lower tropospheric meridional temperature gradients.

  2. Organizational structures of companies versus project management effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanna Haffer

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available An organizational structure, indicated as one out of the four main organizational conditions supporting project management, has an essential meaning for project execution. This article, based on the research results, describes different organizational structures of project-orientated enterprises, enumerating their advantages and disadvantages, and reveals the influence of inter-organizational relations on project management effectiveness in enterprises operating in Poland. The results indicate that the more a character of inter-organizational relations is heading towards project structure, the higher project management effectiveness is. In the next sequence the project management processes are supported by strong matrix structures, whereas the worst outcomes are provided by functional structures. Simultaneously, it was concluded that project structures are conducive to high advancement of project management processes, and among them, especially project risk management processes as well as communication, time and cost management processes.

  3. Modelling the impacts of projected future climate change on water resources in north-west England

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the last two decades, the frequency of water resource drought in the UK, coupled with the more recent pan-European drought of 2003, has increased concern over changes in climate. Using the UKCIP02 Medium-High (SRES A2 scenario for 2070–2100, this study investigates the impact of climate change on the operation of the Integrated Resource Zone (IRZ, a complex conjunctive-use water supply system in north-western England. The results indicate that the contribution of individual sources to yield may change substantially but that overall yield is reduced by only 18%. Notwithstanding this significant effect on water supply, the flexibility of the system enables it to meet modelled demand for much of the time under the future climate scenario, even without a change in system management, but at significant expense for pumping additional abstraction from lake and borehole sources. This research provides a basis for the future planning and management of the complex water resource system in the north-west of England.

  4. Microbial and biogeochemical responses to projected future nitrate enrichment in the California upwelling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine Rose Marie Mackey

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Coastal California is a dynamic upwelling region where nitrogen (N and iron (Fe can both limit productivity and influence biogeochemistry over different spatial and temporal scales. With global change, the flux of nitrate from upwelling is expected to increase over the next century, potentially driving additional oceanic regions toward Fe limitation. In this study we explored the effect of changes in Fe/N ratio on native phytoplankton from five currently Fe-replete sites near the major California upwelling centers at Bodega Bay and Monterey Bay using nutrient addition incubation experiments. Despite the high nitrate levels (13-30 M in the upwelled water, phytoplankton at three of the five sites showed increased growth when 10 M nitrate was added. None of the sites showed enhanced growth following addition of 10 nM Fe. Nitrate additions favored slow sinking single-celled diatoms over faster sinking chain-forming diatoms, suggesting that future increases in nitrate flux could affect carbon and silicate export and alter grazer populations. In particular, solitary cells of Cylindrotheca were more abundant than the toxin-producing genus Pseudonitzschia following nitrate addition. These responses suggest the biogeochemistry of coastal California could change in response to future increases in nitrate, and multiple stressors like ocean acidification and hypoxia may further result in ecosystem shifts.

  5. Future projections of fire danger in Brazilian biomes in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libonati, Renata; Silva, Patrícia; DaCamara, Carlos; Bastos, Ana

    2016-04-01

    In the global context, Brazil is one of the regions more severely affected by fire occurrences, with important consequences in the global CO2 balance, the state of the Amazon forest and the ecological diversity of the region. Brazil is also one of the few regions experiencing a raise in annual mean temperature above 2.5o during the 20th century, which may further increase between 2o and 7o until 2100 and, likely, be accompanied by a decrease in precipitation [1]. As the fire occurrence and severity largely depends on these two variables, it is worth assessing the evolution of fire danger for the coming decades. In order to obtain a detailed characterization of the future fire patterns in the different biomes of Brazil, we use outputs from a regional-downscaling of the EC-Earth climate model at 0.44 degrees spatial resolution for two future scenarios, an intermediate (RCP4.5) and a more severe (RCP8.5) one. We use a fire danger index specifically developed for the Brazilian climate and biome characteristics, the IFR from INPE. This index relies on values of maximum temperature, accumulated precipitation over different periods, minimum relative humidity and vegetation cover to estimate the likelihood of fire occurrence. We find a systematic increase of the days with critical fire risk, which is more pronounced in RCP8.5 and mostly affects months when fire activity takes place. Temperature increase is the most determinant factor for the increase in fire danger in the dry regions of savannah and shrubland, a result to be expected as fuel is already very dry. [1] Collins, M., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W.J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A.J. Weaver and M. Wehner, 2013: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on

  6. Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gourdji, Sharon M; Sibley, Adam M; Lobell, David B

    2013-01-01

    Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (T crit ), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980–2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence (r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and T crit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for T crit . Increasing T crit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over T crit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a

  7. Projection for new city future scenarios – A case study for Kuwait

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nayef Alghais

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The creation of new cities is a planning approach adopted in several regions around the world, in order to accommodate urban growth. New cities are typically constructed according to well-thought out, centralised plans in areas without any prior development. However, whether the development of these new cities is able to address existing urban issues more effectively than traditional methods such as intensification, is currently an unanswered research question. Several Arabian Gulf countries, such as Kuwait are considering the construction of new cities to address urban issues, specifically the traffic congestion and housing shortages. In Kuwait, the master plan for these construction projects was developed solely by state authorities without any public participation or urban modelling that may have provided a more well-rounded view of the potential impacts and effectiveness.This paper aims to address these research opportunities of investigating the effectiveness of new cities in addressing traffic congestion and housing shortage, as well as the potential to integrate public opinions in urban development in the form of a model. Towards that end, the study proposes an Agent Based Model (ABM that will allow simulating the population distribution and urban growth impacts of new cities in Kuwait by 2050. The methodology involves collecting primary data via interviewing the key government stakeholders of urban development and surveying the residents in order to collect the model inputs. In Kuwait's society, citizens and non-citizens form two distinct resident groups with often very diverse needs and lifestyles; hence the survey responses will differentiate between them. The data from the interviews and surveys from both resident groups will be incorporated as agent behaviours in the ABM. The simulations examine a multitude of scenarios for the new cities, involving construction delays and infrastructure project delays. The results indicate that the

  8. Downscaling future climate projections to the watershed scale: A north San Francisco Bay estuary case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micheli, Elisabeth; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; Weiss, Stuart; Kennedy, Morgan

    2012-01-01

    We modeled the hydrology of basins draining into the northern portion of the San Francisco Bay Estuary (North San Pablo Bay) using a regional water balance model (Basin Characterization Model; BCM) to estimate potential effects of climate change at the watershed scale. The BCM calculates water balance components, including runoff, recharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and stream flow, based on climate, topography, soils and underlying geology, and the solar-driven energy balance. We downscaled historical and projected precipitation and air temperature values derived from weather stations and global General Circulation Models (GCMs) to a spatial scale of 270 m. We then used the BCM to estimate hydrologic response to climate change for four scenarios spanning this century (2000–2100). Historical climate patterns show that Marin’s coastal regions are typically on the order of 2 °C cooler and receive five percent more precipitation compared to the inland valleys of Sonoma and Napa because of marine influences and local topography. By the last 30 years of this century, North Bay scenarios project average minimum temperatures to increase by 1.0 °C to 3.1 °C and average maximum temperatures to increase by 2.1 °C to 3.4 °C (in comparison to conditions experienced over the last 30 years, 1981–2010). Precipitation projections for the 21st century vary between GCMs (ranging from 2 to 15% wetter than the 20th-century average). Temperature forcing increases the variability of modeled runoff, recharge, and stream discharge, and shifts hydrologic cycle timing. For both high- and low-rainfall scenarios, by the close of this century warming is projected to amplify late-season climatic water deficit (a measure of drought stress on soils) by 8% to 21%. Hydrologic variability within a single river basin demonstrated at the scale of subwatersheds may prove an important consideration for water managers in the face of climate change. Our results suggest that in arid

  9. The future of coastal upwelling in the Humboldt current from model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyarzún, Damián; Brierley, Chris M.

    2018-03-01

    The Humboldt coastal upwelling system in the eastern South Pacific ocean is one of the most productive marine ecosystems in the world. A weakening of the upwelling activity could lead to severe ecological impacts. As coastal upwelling in eastern boundary systems is mainly driven by wind stress, most studies so far have analysed wind patterns change through the 20th and 21st Centuries in order to understand and project the phenomenon under specific forcing scenarios. Mixed results have been reported, and analyses from General Circulation Models have suggested even contradictory trends of wind stress for the Humboldt system. In this study, we analyse the ocean upwelling directly in 13 models contributing to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in both the historical simulations and an extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5). The upwelling is represented by the upward ocean mass flux, a newly-included variable that represents the vertical water transport. Additionally, wind stress, ocean stratification, Ekman layer depth and thermocline depth were also analysed to explore their interactions with coastal upwelling throughout the period studied. The seasonal cycle of coastal upwelling differs between the Northern and Southern Humboldt areas. At lower latitudes, the upwelling season spans most of the autumn, winter and spring. However, in the Southern Humboldt area the upwelling season takes place in spring and the summertime with downwelling activity in winter. This persists throughout the Historical and RCP8.5 simulations. For both the Northern and Southern Humboldt areas an increasing wind stress is projected. However, different trends of upwelling intensity are observed away from the sea surface. Whereas wind stress will continue controlling the decadal variability of coastal upwelling on the whole ocean column analysed (surface to 300 m depth), an increasing disconnect with upwelling intensity is projected below 100 m depth throughout the 21

  10. A Rapid History of Futures Thought: From Montgolfier to the Manhattan Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, I. F.

    1984-01-01

    The literature of future studies has grown up rapidly in times of technological innovation and social change. Particular events and publications that have contributed most to the development of the futures movement around the world are highlighted. (Author/RM)

  11. Requirements for future control room and visualisation features in the Web-of-Cells framework defined in the ELECTRA project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tornelli, Carlo; Zuelli, Roberto; Marinell, Mattia

    2017-01-01

    project, that proposes a new Web-of-Cell (WoC) power system control architecture. Dedicated visualisation features are proposed, aimed to support the control room operators activities in a WoC-oriented approach. Furthermore, the work takes into account the point of view of network operators about future...

  12. Oxide and nitride TRU-fuels: lessons drawn from the CONFIRM and FUTURE projects of the 5. European framework programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pillon, S.; Wallenius, J.

    2004-01-01

    The FUTURE and CONFIRM projects address the issue of the design and fabrication of respectively oxide and nitride fuels for the transmutation in accelerator driven system. This paper compares advantages and drawbacks of TRU oxides and nitrides in terms of performance and fabricability. (authors)

  13. The activities of the committee 'Kernreaktorregelung' (nuclear reactor control) in the past few years and future projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knecht, O.

    1976-01-01

    Results achieved so far and future projects are portrayed in detail: 1) VDI/VDE 3527-Graphical symbols for nuclear reactor control; 2) VDI/VDE 3528-Special terms and definitons for nuclear reactor control; 3) 8 data sheets on reactor control; 4) VDI/VDE 3530-Characterisation of reactor control rod drives. (orig./HP) [de

  14. Projecting county-level populations under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley J. Zarnoch; H. Ken Cordell; Carter J. Betz

    2010-01-01

    County-level population projections from 2010 to 2060 are developed under three national population growth scenarios for reporting in the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. These population growth scenarios are tied to global futures scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a program within the United Nations...

  15. Analysis of the efficiency of some international projects in Ukraine for future of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radovskaya, O.; Pysmennaya, U.; Zenyuk, D.

    2001-01-01

    The report presents the review of the status and perspectives for nuclear energy development in Ukraine. The role of certain projects for young experts is evaluated - among these projects the basic one is the IAEA Technical Co-operation Project UKR/4/006 S trategy for Nuclear Energy Development , as well as projects of the Ukrainian Nuclear Society and the Institute of Nuclear and Energy Law. (authors)

  16. Future wave and wind projections for United States and United-States-affiliated Pacific Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storlazzi, Curt D.; Shope, James B.; Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christine A.; Barnard, Patrick L.

    2015-01-01

    Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change are not well understood. Spatially and temporally varying waves dominate coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact coastal infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of the islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast through the year 2100 using wind parameter outputs from four atmosphere-ocean global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5, for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 that correspond to moderately mitigated and unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Wind fields from the global climate models were used to drive a global WAVEWATCH-III wave model and generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific for the years 1976–2005 (historical), 2026–2045 (mid-century projection), and 2085–2100 (end-of-century projection). Although the results show some spatial heterogeneity, overall the December-February extreme significant wave heights, defined as the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave height time-series data modeled within a specific period, increase from present to mid-century and then decrease toward the end of the century; June-August extreme wave heights increase throughout the century within the Central region of the study area; and September-November wave heights decrease strongly throughout the 21st century, displaying the largest and most widespread decreases of any season. Peak wave periods increase east of the International Date Line during the December-February and June-August seasons under RCP4.5. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, wave periods decrease west of the International Date Line during December-February but increase in the eastern half of the study area. Otherwise, wave periods decrease

  17. "Projeto Rios" (Rivers Project) a methodology of classroom of the future (northern Portugal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Ana

    2013-04-01

    in a placard at school, in the school website and in local parish council. With this project we promote scientific curiosity and implements to the experimental scientific method, with the collection and recording of data and its discussion. Also, it appears that the happiness, the well-being, the interest, the spirit of cooperation and commitment shown by the students was a constant in all outputs and performed work. The young people were very receptive to all proposals and they were the first to saying "We want to go to the river". They have the responsibility of the vigilance and protection of their selected river section and they will realize that the future will be so much better if we preserve our natural heritage, as rivers are.

  18. Effective and efficient implementation of alternative project delivery : research summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-01

    Alternative project delivery (APD) methods such as Design Build (DB) and Construction Manager at Risk (CMAR), are used by state departments of transportation to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of project delivery. The Maryland Department of ...

  19. Project Management Effectiveness: the choice - formal or informal controls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Heales

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Development failures and runaway projects in the information systems (IS area can result in substantial losses to organizations, either financially or to a company’s reputation. One important strategy in mitigating risk is the use of effective controls over IS projects. This research investigates the effectiveness of control mechanisms in IS projects, i.e., how they have been established, applied, and how they have evolved throughout the project. We conducted an in-depth study of six information systems projects with six different project managers. We found that formal controls were adopted on project elements with clearly defined project outcomes and informal controls were adopted mainly on project elements that were unclear and often related to people. Furthermore, formal controls were dominant at project initiation and in most cases these controls became less dominant over the project duration. These formal controls were more rigorously applied in external IS projects while informal controls increased in importance throughout the project duration in internally developed projects. We found the existence of informal controls to be very important in helping ensure successful project outcomes.

  20. Ion effects in future circular and linear accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raubenheimer, T.O.

    1995-05-01

    In this paper, the author discusses ion effects relevant to future storage rings and linear colliders. The author first reviews the conventional ion effects observed in present storage rings and then discusses how these effects will differ in the next generation of rings and linacs. These future accelerators operate in a new regime because of the high current long bunch trains and the very small transverse beam emittances. Usually, storage rings are designed with ion clearing gaps to prevent ion trapping between bunch trains or beam revolutions. Regardless, ions generated within a single bunch train can have significant effects. The same is true in transport lines and linacs, where typical vacuum pressures are relatively high. Amongst other effects, the author addresses the tune spreads due to the ions and the resulting filamentation which can severely limit emittance correction techniques in future linear colliders, the bunch-to-bunch coupling due to the ions which can cause a multi-bunch instability with fast growth rates, and the betatron coupling and beam halo creation which limit the vertical emittance and beam lifetimes

  1. Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

    2015-01-01

    Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

  2. Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2014-05-01

    Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

  3. The Haleakala Argentine ant project: a synthesis of past research and prospects for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krushelnycky, Paul; Haines, William; Loope, Lloyd; Van Gelder, Ellen

    2011-01-01

    1. The Haleakala Argentine Ant Project is an ongoing effort to study the ecology of the invasive Argentine ant in the park, and if possible to develop a strategy to control this destructive species. 2. Past research has demonstrated that the Argentine ant causes very significant impacts on native arthropods where it invades, threatening a large portion of the park’s biodiversity in subalpine shrubland and alpine aeolian ecosystems. 3. Patterns of spread over the past 30+ years indicate that the invasion process is influenced to a substantial degree by abiotic factors such as elevation, rainfall and temperature, and that the ant has not reached its potential range. Predictions of total range in the park suggest that it has only invaded a small fraction of available suitable habitat, confirming that this species is one of most serious threats to the park’s natural resources. 4. Numerous experiments have been conducted since 1994 in an attempt to develop a method for eradicating the Argentine ant at Haleakala using pesticidal ant baits. Thirty baits have been screened for attractiveness to ants in the park, and ten of these were tested for effectiveness of control in field plots. While some of these baits have been very effective in reducing numbers of ants, none has been able to eliminate all nests in experimental plots. 5. Research into a secondary management goal of ant population containment was initiated in 1996. By treating only expanding margins of the park’s two ant populations with an ant pesticide, rates of outward spread were substantially reduced in some areas. While this strategy was implemented from 1997 to 2004, it was ultimately discontinued after 2004 because of the difficulty and insufficient effectiveness of the technique. 6. In order to achieve the types of results necessary for eradication, the project would probably need to explore the possibility of developing a specialized bait, rather than relying on a commercially produced bait. An

  4. Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, J.O.; Bigelow, N.H.; Prentice, I.C.; Harrison, S.P.; Bartlein, P.J.; Christensen, T.R.; Cramer, W.; Matveyeva, N.V.; McGuire, A.D.; Murray, D.F.; Razzhivin, V.Y.; Smith, B.; Walker, D.A.; Anderson, P.M.; Andreev, A.A.; Brubaker, L.B.; Edwards, M.E.; Lozhkin, A.V.

    2003-01-01

    Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55??N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

  5. The Challenge of Integrating OHS into Industrial Project Risk Management: Proposal of a Methodological Approach to Guide Future Research (Case of Mining Projects in Quebec, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adel Badri

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Although risk management tools are put to good use in many industrial sectors, some large projects have been met with numerous problems due to failure to take occupational health and safety (OHS into consideration. In spite of the high level of risk and uncertainty associated with many industrial projects, the number of studies of methods for managing all known risks systematically remains small. Under effervescent economic conditions, industries must meet several challenges associated with frequent project start-ups. In highly complex and uncertain environments, rigorous management of risk remains indispensable for avoiding threats to the success of projects. Many businesses seek continually to create and improve integrated approaches to risk management. This article puts into perspective the complexity of the challenge of integrating OHS into industrial project risk management. A conceptual and methodological approach is proposed to guide future research focused on meeting this challenge. The approach is based on applying multi-disciplinary research modes to a complex industrial context in order to identify all scenarios likely to contain threats to humans or the environment. A case study is used to illustrate the potential of the proposed approach for application and its contribution to meeting the challenge of taking OHS into consideration. On-site researchers were able to develop a new approach that helped two mining companies in Quebec (Canada to achieve successful integration of OHS into expansion projects.

  6. Anticipating the use of future things: towards a framework for prospective use analysis in innovation design projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Julien; Buisine, Stéphanie; Aoussat, Améziane

    2013-11-01

    Anticipation of future product use is a persistent issue in User-Centered Design. In this paper, we argue that one obstacle to early integration of use analysis in innovation design is overreliance on retrospective use analysis, i.e. that which is based on clear references to existing products or activities. In contrast, innovation design projects are full of uncertainty, leading to a need for prospective analysis. After having described some limitations of prospective use analysis, we contend that creativity tools may be used to assist the anticipation of future product use, by allowing designers to approach the variability of situations of future use in a structured manner rather than by "muddling through". We illustrate the expected benefits of this approach with two case studies, and describe some prospects for future research and practice in ergonomics. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. The European Donor Health Care Project: fulfilling needs and challenges for the future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.J.M. van den Burg

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The Donor Health Care project is a EU granted project to develop a learning programme for professionals working in the field of Donor Health Care. The innovation of this curriculum is the focus on all donors, irrespective of whether they donate blood, cells, tissues or organs. This article describes the background of the project and the current possibilities and limitations of European accreditation, distance learning and Master degrees.

  8. The importance of hot drought in providing more useful, and higher confidence, projections of future climatic, hydrologic, and ecosystem impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B. H.

    2017-12-01

    Often cited as a general guide to future climatic change, "the wet get wetter, and the dry get drier" is a misleading way to look towards the future for many regions of the globe, just as the simple use of multi-model ensemble projections of temperature and precipitation change averaged over many years can also be quite misleading for real-world planning and decision-making. Factors that support these assertions are multi-fold. First, we know with high confidence that warming will continue as long as greenhouse gas emissions continue. Second, continued warming will act to make droughts more frequent, longer and more severe in many regions. Even in the absence of precipitation declines, increases in evaporation and evapotranspiration, among other things, will drive regional drying. It is misleading to suggest to decision-makers that although the future may see an increase in drought risk, a projected increase in mean precipitation will counter-balance the increased drought risk. This counter-balancing will be absent during periods of precipitation-dominated drought. Moreover, projections of precipitation change are usually associated with much less confidence than projections of warming. For example, in places like the headwaters of the Colorado and Rio Grande Rivers, or East Africa, many models suggest we should be seeing an increase in precipitation, when in fact we are only seeing significant warming. Moreover, paleoclimatic evidence suggests that state-of-the-art Earth System Models may underestimate the risk of future multi-decadal droughts, even though these droughts have occurred in many regions during the last 2000 years. This reality suggests that even in regions that do see modest increases in mean precipitation, there will likely be periods in the future characterized by decades of below 20th century mean precipitation coupled with unprecedented warmth. Hot drought may be a much more widespread and serious threat than widely recognized.

  9. EFFECTS OF PROJECT-RELATED FACTORS ON ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    labour productivity in Bayelsa State of Nigeria from the perspectives of building craftsmen and project supervisors/engineers. ..... Technology in. Environmental Sanitation, 1(2), 163-170. ... Benchmarking of Construction Productivity. Journal of ...

  10. INSPIRE Project (IoNospheric Sounding for Pre-seismic anomalies Identification REsearch): Main Results and Future Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulinets, S. A.; Andrzej, K.; Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Cherniak, I.; Zakharenkova, I.; Rothkaehl, H.; Davidenko, D.

    2017-12-01

    The INSPIRE project is dedicated to the study of physical processes and their effects in ionosphere which could be determined as earthquake precursors together with detailed description of the methodology of ionospheric pre-seismic anomalies definition. It was initiated by ESA and carried out by international consortium. The physical mechanisms of the ionospheric pre-seismic anomalies generation from ground to the ionosphere altitudes were formulated within framework of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Coupling (LAIMC) model (Pulinets et al., 2015). The general algorithm for the identification of the ionospheric precursors was formalized which also takes into account the external Space Weather factors able to generate the false alarms. Importance of the special stable pattern called the "precursor mask" was highlighted which is based on self-similarity of pre-seismic ionospheric variations. The role of expert decision in pre-seismic anomalies interpretation for generation of seismic warning is important as well. The algorithm performance of the LAIMC seismo-ionospheric effect detection module has been demonstrated using the L'Aquila 2009 earthquake as a case study. The results of INSPIRE project have demonstrated that the ionospheric anomalies registered before the strong earthquakes could be used as reliable precursors. The detailed classification of the pre-seismic anomalies was presented in different regions of the ionosphere and signatures of the pre-seismic anomalies as detected by ground and satellite based instruments were described what clarified methodology of the precursor's identification from ionospheric multi-instrumental measurements. Configuration for the dedicated multi-observation experiment and satellite payload was proposed for the future implementation of the INSPIRE project results. In this regard the multi-instrument set can be divided by two groups: space equipment and ground-based support, which could be used for real

  11. Measurement of Software Project Management Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-12-01

    factors such as advertisement of project mission, top management support, client consultation, personnel issues, client acceptance, etc. Trouble...and PERT (Program/Project Evaluation and Review Technique) and CPM (Critical Path Analysis) charts are process models, and the development of Gantt...models (such as Gantt, PERT and CPM ) got wide-acceptance in industry, as Fuggetta (2000) pointed out few (if any) of the proposed PMLs and related

  12. Highlights from the Future Earth Water-Energy-Food (W-E-F) Nexus Cluster Project Consultations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawford, R. G.

    2017-12-01

    Future Earth launched its W-E-F Nexus project in 2015. The focus of the project was to explore how improved governance and integrated information systems could support sustainability in the W-E-F Nexus. Workshops were held in four regions of the world (North America, Europe, Eastern Asia, and Southern Africa) which facilitated a better understanding of the current role of information in decision-making within the W-E-F Nexus. In each of these workshops, needs and options for improving the provision of relevant integrated data and information to support decision-making were discussed. The workshops provided distinct perspectives on W-E-F issues for each region and each sector. Regional differences arise from climate, geomorphology, natural resources and existing infrastructure as well as the economic and social policies within each country. While the needs associated with this diversity are large, it is still possible to identify unifying themes and requirements for data and information which appeared very similar in all the regions. Important themes involve developing a common rigorous definition of the Nexus, ensuring the availability of data of all types are available in the scales, frequencies, and accuracies needed to support better decision making; and promoting the gathering, analysis and use of information to break down the silos associated with the three sectors are made. Information is also needed to monitor the effects of land ownership and land management on W-E-F issues, to maximize the efficiencies that can be realized from joint planning and increased coherence in the sectoral policy approaches to address climate and environmental issues. After commenting on these opportunities the presentation will outline possible elements of a research agenda for moving the W-E-F Nexus approach forward.

  13. Evaluating effectiveness of project start-ups: an exploratory study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halman, Johannes I.M.; Burger, G.T.N.

    In this paper an exploratory study is reported about the effectiveness of project start-up (PSU) practices within a world-scale operating, high technology innovating and manufacturing company. The emphasis is on the focal position of both project owner and project manager. To uncover potential

  14. The effect of costs on the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walske, C.

    1984-01-01

    The author discusses the future of the nuclear power industry from an economics and cost-factor point of view, from the point of view of plant management, as it affects and requires personnel training, as R and D cost and competition is involved, as end-user cost is involved, and as efficiency and cost effectiveness of nuclear power fare in comparison with other sources of electrical energy

  15. The future of AIDS in Africa: lessons from two scenario projects ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Scenario planning or futures studies have their origin in military planning, but have also been used with great success in the private sector, most notably in the energy industry. UNAIDS and the South African financial services group Metropolitan each recently published a set of scenarios regarding the future impact of ...

  16. Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shindell, D.T.; Faluvegi, G.; Stevenson, D.S.; Krol, M.C.; Emmons, L.K.; Lamarque, J.F.; Petron, G.; Dentener, F.J.; Ellingsen, K.; Schultz, M.G.; Wild, O.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C.S.; Bergmann, D.J.; Bey, I.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Collins, W.J.; Derwent, R.G.; Doherty, R.M.; Drevet, J.; Eskes, H.J.; Fiore, A.M.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D.A.; Horowitz, L.W.; Isaksen, I.S.A.; Lawrence, M.G.; Montanaro, V.; Muller, J.F.; Pitari, G.; Prather, M.J.; Pyle, J.A.; Rast, S.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Sanderson, M.G.; Savage, N.H.; Strahan, S.E.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Unger, N.; Noije, van T.P.C.; Zeng, G.

    2006-01-01

    We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show

  17. Identification of observables for future grids - The framework developed in the ELECTRA project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visscher, K.; Marinelli, M.; Morch, A.Z.; Jakobsen, S.H.

    2015-01-01

    The main subject of this paper is the classification and identification of observables for present and future grids. In order to make an inventory of present and potentially new observables, a systematic classification and identification of observables for future grids is conducted. After first

  18. Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: comparison with observations and projected near-future changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shindell, D.T.; Krol, M.C.

    2006-01-01

    We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-ofthe- art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show

  19. Fisher research and the Kings River Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Project: current results and future efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian B. Boroski; Richard T. Golightly; Amie K. Mazzoni; Kimberly A. Sager

    2002-01-01

    The Kings River Sustainable Forest Ecosystems Project was initiated on the Kings River Ranger District of the Sierra National Forest, California, in 1993, with fieldwork beginning in 1994. Knowledge of the ecology of the fisher (Martes pennanti) in the Project area, and in the Sierra Nevada of California in general, is insufficient to develop...

  20. Towards the automotive HMI of the future: Overview of the AIDE - Integrated project results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amditis, A.; Andreone, L.; Pagle, K.; Markkula, G.; Deregibus, E.; Romera Rue, M.; Bellotti, F.; Engelsberg, A.; Brouwer, R.; Peters, B.; Gloria, A. de

    2010-01-01

    The Adaptive Integrated Driver-vehicle interfacE (AIDE) is an integrated project funded by the European Commission in the Sixth Framework Programme. The project, which involves 31 partners from the European automotive industry and academia, deals with behavioral and technical issues related to

  1. Project Reinvest: Invest in America's Future by Reinvesting in America's Community Colleges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, Robert H.

    To help raise the level of funding for the nation's community colleges, Project Reinvest was created to help colleges communicate their role in solving the nation's problems and the importance of adequate funding. Specifically, the project seeks to encourage colleges' participation in efforts to develop a genuine understanding of their…

  2. PET motion correction in context of integrated PET/MR: Current techniques, limitations, and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillman, Ashley; Smith, Jye; Thomas, Paul; Rose, Stephen; Dowson, Nicholas

    2017-12-01

    Patient motion is an important consideration in modern PET image reconstruction. Advances in PET technology mean motion has an increasingly important influence on resulting image quality. Motion-induced artifacts can have adverse effects on clinical outcomes, including missed diagnoses and oversized radiotherapy treatment volumes. This review aims to summarize the wide variety of motion correction techniques available in PET and combined PET/CT and PET/MR, with a focus on the latter. A general framework for the motion correction of PET images is presented, consisting of acquisition, modeling, and correction stages. Methods for measuring, modeling, and correcting motion and associated artifacts, both in literature and commercially available, are presented, and their relative merits are contrasted. Identified limitations of current methods include modeling of aperiodic and/or unpredictable motion, attaining adequate temporal resolution for motion correction in dynamic kinetic modeling acquisitions, and maintaining availability of the MR in PET/MR scans for diagnostic acquisitions. Finally, avenues for future investigation are discussed, with a focus on improvements that could improve PET image quality, and that are practical in the clinical environment. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

  3. Economic impacts on West Virginia from projected future coal production and implications for policymakers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, L J; Cleetus, R; Clemmer, S; Deyette, J

    2014-01-01

    Multiple economic and geologic factors are driving fundamental changes in the nation’s energy system, weakening coal’s dominance as a fuel for electricity generation, with significant implications for places like West Virginia that are heavily dependent on coal for economic activity. Some of these factors include low natural gas prices, rising labor costs and declining productivity, economic competition with other coal mining regions, environmental regulations to reduce pollution and safeguard public health, state energy efficiency and renewable electricity standards, falling costs of renewable energy resources like wind and solar, and the likely prospect of future limits on greenhouse gas emissions. This analysis uses an input–output model to examine the effects on West Virginia’s economy from these multiple factors by exploring a range of scenarios for coal production through 2020. In addition to changes in the coal industry, hypothetical investments in additional sectors of the economy are considered as a way to gauge potential alternative economic opportunities. This paper offers recommendations to policymakers for alternative economic development strategies needed to create new jobs and diversify the state’s economy, and highlights the importance of transition assistance at the federal level. (paper)

  4. Organizational structures of companies versus project management effectiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Joanna Haffer

    2012-01-01

    An organizational structure, indicated as one out of the four main organizational conditions supporting project management, has an essential meaning for project execution. This article, based on the research results, describes different organizational structures of project-orientated enterprises, enumerating their advantages and disadvantages, and reveals the influence of inter-organizational relations on project management effectiveness in enterprises operating in Poland. The results indicat...

  5. Response of the Arctic pteropod Limacina helicina to projected future environmental conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steeve Comeau

    Full Text Available Thecosome pteropods (pelagic mollusks can play a key role in the food web of various marine ecosystems. They are a food source for zooplankton or higher predators such as fishes, whales and birds that is particularly important in high latitude areas. Since they harbor a highly soluble aragonitic shell, they could be very sensitive to ocean acidification driven by the increase of anthropogenic CO(2 emissions. The effect of changes in the seawater chemistry was investigated on Limacina helicina, a key species of Arctic pelagic ecosystems. Individuals were kept in the laboratory under controlled pCO(2 levels of 280, 380, 550, 760 and 1020 microatm and at control (0 degrees C and elevated (4 degrees C temperatures. The respiration rate was unaffected by pCO(2 at control temperature, but significantly increased as a function of the pCO(2 level at elevated temperature. pCO(2 had no effect on the gut clearance rate at either temperature. Precipitation of CaCO(3, measured as the incorporation of (45Ca, significantly declined as a function of pCO(2 at both temperatures. The decrease in calcium carbonate precipitation was highly correlated to the aragonite saturation state. Even though this study demonstrates that pteropods are able to precipitate calcium carbonate at low aragonite saturation state, the results support the current concern for the future of Arctic pteropods, as the production of their shell appears to be very sensitive to decreased pH. A decline of pteropod populations would likely cause dramatic changes to various pelagic ecosystems.

  6. The Future of wildland fire management in a world of rapid change and great uncertainty: Overview of a futures research project

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Bengston; Robert L. Olson; Leif A. DeVaney

    2012-01-01

    Past efforts to examine the future of wildland fire management have relied heavily on expertise from within the wildfire community. But changes in seemingly unrelated external factors - outside of the world of wildfire and fire management - can have unexpected and profound effects. This paper describes an ongoing sh1dy of the...

  7. Lessons learned from current Qinshan CANDU project and the impact on future NPP's

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedges, K. R.; Didsbury, R.; Yu, S. K. W.

    2000-01-01

    AECL has adopted an evolutionary approach to the development of the CANDU 6 and CANDU 9 Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) designs. Each new NPP project benefits from previous projects and contains an increasing number of fully proven enhancements. In accordance with this evolutionary design approach, AECL has built on the Wolsong and Qinshan successes and the solid performance of the reference CANDU stations to define, review and implement the enhancements for the CANDU 9 NPP. Some of these enhancements include fully integrated project information systems and databases, safety enhancements coming from PSA studies and licensing activities, distributed control systems for plant-wide control and an advanced control center which addresses human factors engineering concepts. Examples of the Qinshan CANDU project delivery enhancements are the utilization of electronic engineering tools for the complete plant, and the linking of these tools with the project material management system and document management systems. The project information is reviewed and approved at the engineering office in Canada and then transmitted to site electronically. Once the electronic data is at site the information packages are extracted as necessary to enable construction and facilitate contract needs with minimum effort. This paper will provide details of the CANDU Qinshan project experiences as well as describing some of the corresponding CANDU 9 enhancements. (author)

  8. The uncertainty of future water supply adequacy in megacities: Effects of population growth and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2013-12-01

    Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.

  9. SO-QT: Collaborative Tool to Project the Future Space Object Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stupl, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Earth orbit gets increasingly congested, a challenge to space operators, both in governments and industry. We present a web tool that provides: 1) data on todays and the historic space object environments, by aggregating object-specific tracking data; and 2) future trends through a collaboration platform to collect information on planed launches. The collaborative platform enables experts to pool and compare their data in order to generate future launch scenarios. The tool is intended to support decision makers and mission designers while they investigate future missions and scholars as they develop strategies for space traffic management.

  10. Future Flows Climate: an ensemble of 1-km climate change projections for hydrological application in Great Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Prudhomme

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The dataset Future Flows Climate was developed as part of the project ''Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications, and to enable climate change uncertainty and climate variability to be accounted for in the assessment of their possible impacts on the environment.

    Future Flows Climate is derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE that is part of the basis of UKCP09 and includes projections in available precipitation (water available to hydrological processes after snow and ice storages have been accounted for and potential evapotranspiration. It corresponds to an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1950 to December 2098, each a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3. Data are provided on a 1-km grid over the HadRM3 land areas at a daily (available precipitation and monthly (PE time step as netCDF files.

    Because systematic biases in temperature and precipitation were found between HadRM3-PPE and gridded temperature and precipitation observations for the 1962–1991 period, a monthly bias correction procedure was undertaken, based on a linear correction for temperature and a quantile-mapping correction (using the gamma distribution for precipitation followed by a spatial downscaling. Available precipitation was derived from the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature time series using a simple elevation-dependant snow-melt model. Potential evapotranspiration time series were calculated for each month using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equations and bias-corrected temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed from HadRM3-PPE along with latitude of the grid and the day of the year.

    Future Flows Climate is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. It is the

  11. Identification of observables for future grids – the framework developed in the ELECTRA project

    OpenAIRE

    Visscher, Klaas; Marinelli, Mattia; Morch, Andrei Z.; Jakobsson, Sigurd Hofsmo

    2015-01-01

    The main subject of this paper is the classification and identification of observables for present and future grids. In order to make an inventory of present and potentially new observables, a systematic classification and identification of observables for future grids is conducted. After first introducing some fundamental definitions for observables, observables are further classified by the characteristic time scale where they are used in the physical power system. For actual use in control...

  12. Teaching with Soap: Examples of Project-Based Units for Students and Future Educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Ivan; Hamed, Kastro M.

    2016-01-01

    This article describes the use of project-based instruction in activities and labs intended to develop higher-order thinking skills with high school students and pre-service teachers through the use of soap making.

  13. Radio frequency identification (RFID) tagging for material tracking and future asset management : research project capsule.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-01

    Current Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (DOTD) : practice allows multiple mixtures or materials to be submitted and subsequently : used during a highway construction project. Such materials include mechanically : stabilized ear...

  14. CHASE-PL—Future Hydrology Data Set: Projections of Water Balance and Streamflow for the Vistula and Odra Basins, Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikołaj Piniewski

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available There is considerable concern that the water resources of Central and Eastern Europe region can be adversely affected by climate change. Projections of future water balance and streamflow conditions can be obtained by forcing hydrological models with the output from climate models. In this study, we employed the SWAT hydrological model driven with an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX climate simulations to generate future hydrological projections for the Vistula and Odra basins in two future horizons (2024–2050 and 2074–2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The data set consists of three parts: (1 model inputs; (2 raw model outputs; (3 aggregated model outputs. The first one allows the users to reproduce the outputs or to create the new ones. The second one contains the simulated time series of 10 variables simulated by SWAT: precipitation, snow melt, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, soil water content, percolation, surface runoff, baseflow, water yield and streamflow. The third one consists of the multi-model ensemble statistics of the relative changes in mean seasonal and annual variables developed in a GIS format. The data set should be of interest of climate impact scientists, water managers and water-sector policy makers. In any case, it should be noted that projections included in this data set are associated with high uncertainties explained in this data descriptor paper.

  15. Future challenges in single event effects for advanced CMOS technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo Hongxia; Wang Wei; Luo Yinhong; Zhao Wen; Guo Xiaoqiang; Zhang Keying

    2010-01-01

    SEE have became a substantial Achilles heel for the reliability of space-based advanced CMOS technologies with features size downscaling. Future space and defense systems require identification and understanding of single event effects to develop hardening approaches for advanced technologies, including changes in device geometry and materials affect energy deposition, charge collection,circuit upset, parametric degradation devices. Topics covered include the impact of technology scaling on radiation response, including single event transients in high speed digital circuits, evidence for single event effects caused by proton direct ionization, and the impact for SEU induced by particle energy effects and indirect ionization. The single event effects in CMOS replacement technologies are introduced briefly. (authors)

  16. Modeling of seasonal water balance for crop production in Bangladesh with implications for future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed R. Karim

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Expecting the projected regional or global climate change, weather could have a significant effect on soil moisture and thereby affecting the plant growth. Water deficiency is considered as one of the major climatic restraints for crop production in Bangladesh, especially in the dry season. To better understand the crop responses to moisture variation, a quantitative analysis is done for major water balance components named, potential evapotranspiration (PET, actual evapotranspiration (AET, soil moisture storage (ST, water deficiency (WD and water surplus (WS with the use of Thornthwaite monthly water balance program. Analyses were carried out for three different seasons, together with interannual variability for 12 major rice growing districts of Bangladesh representing the north, central, southern and coastal zones. Hindcasted monthly average surface air temperature and precipitation data were collected from Bangladesh meteorological department during 1986 to 2006. Results suggested, trend of PET was same in every station and generally higher values were observed in the month of July and August. Khulna, the coastal station had the highest annual average PET of 1369 mm. The lowest annual AET of 1108 mm was estimated for Teknaf, while Dinajpur stood in second lowest position. ST was found almost at field capacity from July to September and, the southern station Chittagong experienced the highest average monthly ST. Maximum WD was found in Bogra and second highest shortage was in Dinajpur. The assessment of average WD of 178 mm yr-1 in northern Bangladesh reflected the worst situation among all regions, besides focusing the winter as the most crucial season regarding the water scarcity. Least amount of WS was noticed for the southern station Khulna. Significant positive relationship (p<0.05 between soil moisture and current rice yields proved the importance of surplus water conservation for the drought prone zone of Bangladesh. To boost up the

  17. Reflections on Ethical Dilemmas in Working with So-Called "Vulnerable" and "Hard-to-Reach" Groups: Experiences from the Foodways and Futures Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gombert, Karolina; Douglas, Flora; McArdle, Karen; Carlisle, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    This article reflects on ethical limitations and dilemmas encountered during fieldwork of the Foodways and Futures project (2013-2016). Foodways and Futures is a qualitative action research project aimed at exploring the food choices of former homeless young people (aged 16-25) in Aberdeenshire. In Scotland, where over 13,000 young people become…

  18. The CIDEM project for integrating availability, operating experience and maintenance in the design of future nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Degrave, C.; Martin-Onraet, M.

    1998-01-01

    To minimize the kWh cost of future nuclear plants EDF has decided to implement the CIDEM project (French acronym for Design Integrating Availability, Operating Experience and Maintenance), an analytic and systematic process for studying new projects. The first CIDEM application is centered on the future French nuclear unit construction program, known as the REP 2000 Program but the approach could be applied to other Reactor type. The CIDEM studies at the beginning, were oriented to the issues strongly impacting the availability. They have concerned: planned outages, forced outages and preventive maintenance. The studies were carried out by a team grouping engineers from the 3 EDF's Divisions (Engineering-Generation-Research), and working together in a Concurrent Engineering-Mode. This team works in close collaboration with the vendors and the German Utilities involved in the REP 2000 EPR program. The implementation of the CIDEM process constitutes for EDF a new approach to the study of the new Nuclear Power Plant projects. The studies conducted in the availability field have already highlighted a number of critical points and have made it possible to establish a series of specifications for the REP 2000/EPR project. The integration in the design process of Preventive Maintenance and Logistic Support studies will allow a better control of the maintenance cost. The competitiveness of nuclear energy greatly depends on the success of such an approach. (author)

  19. Future of family support: Projected living arrangements and income sources of older people in Hong Kong up to 2030.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Kok-Hoe

    2016-06-01

    The study aims to project future trends in living arrangements and access to children's cash contributions and market income sources among older people in Hong Kong. A cell-based model was constructed by combining available population projections, labour force projections, an extrapolation of the historical trend in living arrangements based on national survey datasets and a regression model on income sources. Under certain assumptions, the proportion of older people living with their children may decline from 59 to 48% during 2006-2030. Although access to market income sources may improve slightly, up to 20% of older people may have no access to either children's financial support or market income sources, and will not live with their children by 2030. Family support is expected to contract in the next two decades. Public pensions should be expanded to protect financially vulnerable older people. © 2015 AJA Inc.

  20. Why are small scale demonstration projects important for the future of CCS?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leetaru, H. E.; Bauer, R. A.; McBride, J. H.; Freiburg, J. T.; Greenberg, S. E.

    2017-12-01

    Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is moving toward large-scale commercial projects and the U.S. Department of Energy is supporting a new CarbonSAFE initiative to assist in the development of a 50 million tonnes geologic storage project. This type of large commercial CCS project will rely on lessons learned from smaller DOE CCS projects such as the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) and the Illinois Industrial Carbon Capture and Storage (IL-ICCS) Project located one mile north of IBDP. Over a three year period ending 2014 IBDP injected almost one million tonnes of CO2 into the Mt. Simon Sandstone, and the IL-ICCS project which commenced injection in 2017 will inject another four million tonnes over a four year period. The IBDP has recorded microseismic events within the study area through continuous downhole seismic monitoring before, during, and after injection. Monitoring shows that microseismicity increased during injection and originate not only in the Cambrian Mt. Simon Sandstone (the target reservoir), but also in the underlying Argenta clastics and deeper Precambrian igneous rocks as SW-NE elongate clusters aligned in strike to the maximum in situ stress direction. An interpretation of site 3D seismic reflection data suggests that much of the microseismicity is proximal to interpreted faults that extend from the basement up into the lowermost Mt. Simon strata. The faults proximally associated with microseismic activity are oriented parallel with respect to the maximum stress direction. The seismic monitoring of the IBDP indicate that the assessment of induced seismic potential associated with commercial-scale CCS requires not only identification of a suitable reservoir and its petrophysical characteristics, but also the extent and orientation of existing faults and their relation to regional stress orientation. Assessment of regional fault orientation using 3D seismic reflection data can be extremely useful to understanding the risks of induced seismicity

  1. Divorced women at retirement: projections of economic well-being in the near future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butrica, B A; Iams, H M

    2000-01-01

    The Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) data system projects retirement income for persons retiring in the 1990s through 2020. Using those data, we examine the economic well-being of divorced women at retirement. The MINT data system improves upon previous estimates of Social Security benefits by: Measuring and projecting years of marriage to determine if the 10-year requirement has been met, Projecting lifetime earnings until retirement and eligibility for Social Security retirement benefits, and Estimating lifetime earnings of former spouses. MINT also makes independent projections of each retiree's income from pensions, assets, and earnings (for working beneficiaries). As a result of changes in marital patterns, MINT projects that the proportion of women who are divorced will increase. At the same time, the proportion of those women who are eligible for auxiliary benefits is projected to decrease, for two main reasons. First, changes in women's earnings and work patterns result in more women receiving retired-worker benefits based on their own earnings. Second, an increased number of divorced women will not meet the 10-year marriage requirement for auxiliary benefits. Despite the projected decrease over time in eligibility rates for auxiliary benefits, the level of Social Security benefits is projected to change little between the older and younger birth cohorts of divorced women entering retirement. According to the MINT data, the most vulnerable of divorced women will be those who have not met the 10-year marriage requirement. Poverty rates will be higher for them than for all other divorced women. This group of divorced women is projected to grow as more and more women divorce from shorter marriages. With more women divorcing and with fewer divorced women meeting the 10-year marriage requirement, the proportion of economically vulnerable aged women will increase when the baby boom retires. Further research is warranted on this long neglected subject

  2. Drawing from past experience to improve the management of future underground projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laughton, Christopher; Fermilab

    2004-01-01

    The high-energy physics community is currently developing plans to build underground facilities as part of its continuing investigation into the fundamental nature of matter. The tunnels and caverns are being designed to house a new generation of particle accelerators and detectors. For these projects, the cost of constructing the underground facility will constitute a major portion of the told capital cost and project viability can be greatly enhanced by paying careful attention to design and construction practices. A review of recently completed underground physics facilities and related literature has been undertaken to identify some management principles that have proven successful in underground practice. Projects reviewed were constructed in the United States of America and Europe using both Design-Build and more traditional Engineer-Procure-Construct contract formats. Although the physics projects reviewed tend to place relatively strict tolerances on alignment, stability and dryness, their overall requirements are similar to those of other tunnels and it is hoped that some of the principles promoted in this paper will be of value to the owner of any underground project

  3. Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

    2018-06-01

    Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

  4. Hydropower projects financing through the public private partnership a future powered by hydro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oprea, Traian; Teleanu, Mihai; Dobrescu, Dan

    2004-01-01

    /////In the frame of economy type that characterized Romania before 1990, the infrastructure and public utilities development, from which the hydropower sector is integral part, was ensured from public funds. The power generation belongs to the public services, which make profits on an average or long terms, in the benefit of the society. The demand for these services is increasing because of both economical increasing and the private sector weight in economy increasing. But, the quality increasing of these services needs investments, that is access to the long-term loans. Romanian banks are not prepared for long-run loans, and the international agencies don't have sufficient investment funds for all necessary projects. One of the options is or, could be, the transfer of entirely responsibility for infrastructure in the private sector hands, but this is not feasible in many cases. For this reason the government can choose a middle way realizing a private public partnership for solving the problem of the investment funds. In a general manner, this scenario consists in the fact of appealing to the private sector to finance, build and operate, for a limited period, an infrastructure, power or tourism project, necessary to the development. The impact zone between the public sector interest and private sector interest defined the concept of 'private public partnership' in its multiple alternatives (BOT, BOO, BOOT, ROT, etc.). The first official mentioning of a project in private public development under the name of BOOT 'Build, Own, Operate, Transfer' has been used in Turkey, in 1984, by the prime-minister ever since, Turgut Ozal, as part of a huge development program through the privatization in the power sector, infrastructure and tourism. The 'private public partnership' concept was studied and promoted, beginning with '95 years by the European Community too, with the view of this financing model utilization to the infrastructure projects development. One of the most

  5. Renewable fuels: Policy effectiveness and project risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leach, Andrew; Doucet, Joseph; Nickel, Trevor

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of government policy on the risk profile of a small ethanol production facility. We derive four key results from a simulation model. First, we show that commodity price risk may discourage investment in a project, despite a positive expected rate of return. Second, we show that political uncertainty may have significant impacts on the risk profile of a project. Next, we show that using only production subsidies to attract investors is expensive, since the financial assistance is paid regardless of whether the plant is operating under positive or negative financial conditions. Finally, we show that a capital grant provides a valuable complement to a subsidy, because the grant reduces the amount of value investors must put at risk, and increases their leverage thereby enhancing returns, while the subsidy mitigates commodity price risk. Our results show that compared to a subsidy-only approach, a grant and subsidy combination provides an investment environment with similar downside protection and expected returns for less than 60% of the cost. Further, we show that the two policy tools combined yield a superior investment environment to that created by an equivalent or greater total investment deployed entirely in either of the policy tools without the other. - Research highlights: → We find that government policy may increase both project returns and risk. → We find a policy of capital grants combined with an output price support to be preferred. → Price supports alone will tend to reward those plants which need them the least.

  6. ISR effects for resonant Higgs production at future lepton colliders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Greco

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We study the effects of the initial state radiation on the s-channel Higgs boson resonant production at μ+μ− and e+e− colliders by convoluting with the beam energy spread profile of the collider and the Breit–Wigner resonance profile of the signal. We assess their impact on both the Higgs signal and SM backgrounds for the leading decay channels h→bb¯, WW⁎. Our study improves the existing analyses of the proposed future resonant Higgs factories and provides further guidance for the accelerator designs with respect to the physical goals.

  7. Genetic modification of the human germ line: The reasons why this project has no future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morange, Michel

    2015-01-01

    Modification of the human germ line has remained a distant but valuable objective for most biologists since the emergence of genetics (and even before). To study the historical transformations of this project, I have selected three periods - the 1930s, at the pinnacle of eugenics, around 1974 when molecular biology triumphed, and today - and have adopted three criteria to estimate the feasibility of this project: the state of scientific knowledge, the existence of suitable tools, and societal demands. Although the long-awaited techniques to modify the germ line are now available, I will show that most of the expectations behind this project have disappeared, or are considered as being reachable by highly different strategies. Copyright © 2015 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  8. Summary of developments and future projects in nuclear power plant control and instrumentation in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plas, Y. van der

    1990-01-01

    A general view is given on the developments and trends due to instrumentation and control of the two nuclear power plants in the Netherlands around the year 1989. Several projects, under which for classification of systems and components and for emergency operating procedures, are executed in both plants. An OSART mission initiated a project to make possible the periodic test of safety commands during operation. An other large project concerned the replacement of the process presentation system in Nuclear Power Plant Borssele. In the article several other developments due to the application of I and C in existing plants are outlined generally. Since 1974, no new nuclear power plants have been constructed in the Netherlands. (author). 2 figs

  9. High-Energy Physics Strategies and Future Large-Scale Projects

    CERN Document Server

    Zimmermann, F

    2015-01-01

    We sketch the actual European and international strategies and possible future facilities. In the near term the High Energy Physics (HEP) community will fully exploit the physics potential of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) through its high-luminosity upgrade (HL-LHC). Post-LHC options include a linear e+e- collider in Japan (ILC) or at CERN (CLIC), as well as circular lepton or hadron colliders in China (CepC/SppC) and Europe (FCC). We conclude with linear and circular acceleration approaches based on crystals, and some perspectives for the far future of accelerator-based particle physics.

  10. Projections of Future Precipitation Extremes Over Europe: A Multimodel Assessment of Climate Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph

    2017-10-01

    Projections of precipitation and its extremes over the European continent are analyzed in an extensive multimodel ensemble of 12 and 50 km resolution EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced by RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) aerosol and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. A systematic intercomparison with ENSEMBLES RCMs is carried out, such that in total information is provided for an unprecedentedly large data set of 100 RCM simulations. An evaluation finds very reasonable skill for the EURO-CORDEX models in simulating temporal and geographical variations of (mean and heavy) precipitation at both horizontal resolutions. Heavy and extreme precipitation events are projected to intensify across most of Europe throughout the whole year. All considered models agree on a distinct intensification of extremes by often more than +20% in winter and fall and over central and northern Europe. A reduction of rainy days and mean precipitation in summer is simulated by a large majority of models in the Mediterranean area, but intermodel spread between the simulations is large. In central Europe and France during summer, models project decreases in precipitation but more intense heavy and extreme rainfalls. Comparison to previous RCM projections from ENSEMBLES reveals consistency but slight differences in summer, where reductions in southern European precipitation are not as pronounced as previously projected. The projected changes of the European hydrological cycle may have substantial impact on environmental and anthropogenic systems. In particular, the simulations indicate a rising probability of summertime drought in southern Europe and more frequent and intense heavy rainfall across all of Europe.

  11. Evaluating the response of Lake Prespa (SW Balkan) to future climate change projections from a high-resolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos

    2017-04-01

    The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change. Projections suggest that the Balkans will experience precipitation and runoff decreases of up to 30% by 2100. However, these projections show large regional spatial variability. Mediterranean lake-wetland systems are particularly threatened by projected climate changes that compound increasingly intensive human impacts (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of individual lake-wetland hydrological responses to future climate changes, which requires fine-resolution projections and a good understanding of the impact of hydro-climate variability on individual lakes. Climate change may directly affect lake level (variability), volume and water temperatures. In turn, these variables influence lake-ecology, habitats and water quality. Land-use intensification and water abstraction multiply these climate-driven changes. To date, there are no projections of future water level and -temperature of individual Mediterranean lakes under future climate scenarios. These are, however, of crucial importance to steer preservation strategies on the relevant catchment-scale. Here we present the first projections of water level and -temperature of the Prespa Lakes covering the period 2071-2100. These lakes are of global significance for biodiversity, and of great regional socio-economic importance as a water resource and tourist attraction. Impact projections are assessed by the Regional Climate Model RCA4 of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) driven by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology global climate model MPI-ESM-LR under two RCP future emissions scenarios, the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, with the simulations carried out in the framework of EURO-CORDEX. Temperature, evapo(transpi)ration and

  12. Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Woo Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

  13. Projected future suitable habitat and productivity of Douglas-fir in western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aaron R. Weiskittel; Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt

    2012-01-01

    Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco) is one of the most common and commercially important species in western North America. The species can occupy a range of habitats, is long-lived (up to 500 years), and highly productive. However, the future of Douglas-fir in western North America is highly uncertain due to the expected changes in climate conditions....

  14. Compendium on Financing of Higher Education: Final Report of the Financing the Students' Future Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Bethan; Charonis, George-Konstantinos; Haaristo, Hanna-Stella; Maurer, Moritz; Kaiser, Florian; Siegrist, Rahel; McVitty, Debbie; Gruber, Angelika; Heerens, Nik; Xhomaqi, Brikena; Nötzl, Tina; Semjonov, Meeli; Primožic, Rok

    2013-01-01

    Higher education plays a vital role in society and the quality, accessibility, and form of higher education is highly dependent on financing. Financing of higher education is conceived to be of central importance for the future creation and dissemination of knowledge and research. Therefore, the financing of higher education is a topic that has…

  15. The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J M; Fahey, David W; Daniel, John S; McFarland, Mack; Andersen, Stephen O

    2009-07-07

    The consumption and emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades in response to regulation of ozone depleting gases under the Montreal Protocol. The projected increases result primarily from sustained growth in demand for refrigeration, air-conditioning (AC) and insulating foam products in developing countries assuming no new regulation of HFC consumption or emissions. New HFC scenarios are presented based on current hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) consumption in leading applications, patterns of replacements of HCFCs by HFCs in developed countries, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Global HFC emissions significantly exceed previous estimates after 2025 with developing country emissions as much as 800% greater than in developed countries in 2050. Global HFC emissions in 2050 are equivalent to 9-19% (CO(2)-eq. basis) of projected global CO(2) emissions in business-as-usual scenarios and contribute a radiative forcing equivalent to that from 6-13 years of CO(2) emissions near 2050. This percentage increases to 28-45% compared with projected CO(2) emissions in a 450-ppm CO(2) stabilization scenario. In a hypothetical scenario based on a global cap followed by 4% annual reductions in consumption, HFC radiative forcing is shown to peak and begin to decline before 2050.

  16. Tree Flora of Sabah and Sarawak project – progress and future activities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, H.S.; Nadiah, I.; Eryani, S.S.

    2009-01-01

    Tropical forests in Borneo (Brunei Darussalam, Kalimantan, Sabah and Sarawak) are considered as one of the twelve mega biodiversity centres in the world. However, until now, there is no up-to-date or complete documentation on the flora of the island. The Tree Flora of Sabah and Sarawak Project,

  17. 78 FR 26319 - Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill; Proposal of Future Early Restoration Projects and Environmental Reviews

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-06

    ... selected and implemented in accordance with the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA), the Framework Agreement... oil spill under the Oil Pollution Act 1990 (OPA; 33 U.S.C. 2701 et seq.). Pursuant to OPA, federal and... cost of this project is approximately $3.5 million. Sea Rim State Park Amenities (Jefferson County...

  18. Runoff Trends Analysis and Future Projections of Hydrological Patterns in Small Forested Catchments

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lamačová, Anna; Hruška, Jakub; Krám, Pavel; Stuchlik, E.; Farda, Aleš; Chuman, T.; Fottová, Daniela

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 4 (2014), s. 169-181 ISSN 1801-5395 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * flow pattern * headwater catchments * hydrological modelling Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.659, year: 2014

  19. Identification of observables for future grids – the framework developed in the ELECTRA project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visscher, Klaas; Marinelli, Mattia; Morch, Andrei Z.

    2015-01-01

    , and system input signal. A survey of existing and potential Control Triples was conducted among partners in the European ELECTRA project, resulting in a spreadsheet inventory. The main findings are presented and a few major observability needs for realising the so-called “vertical integration” of control...

  20. Standard Terminology for Phenotypic Variations: The Elements of Morphology Project, Its Current Progress, and Future Directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carey, John C.; Allanson, Judith E.; Hennekam, Raoul C. M.; Biesecker, Leslie G.

    2012-01-01

    In 2005, the authors of this article formed an international working group to develop standardized definitions and terms to describe the physical variations used in human phenotypic analyses. This project, which came to be known as the Elements of Morphology, resulted in six articles proposing

  1. Projecting trends in plant invasions in Europe under different scenarios of future land-use change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Chytrý, M.; Wild, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Jarošík, Vojtěch; Dendoncker, N.; Reginster, I.; Pino, J.; Maskell, L. C.; Vila, M.; Pergl, Jan; Kühn, I.; Spangenberg, J.H.; Settele, J.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 1 (2012), s. 75-87 ISSN 1466-822X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC06073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : plant invasions * land-use change * prediction Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 7.223, year: 2012

  2. Hedge Effectiveness in the Brazilian US Dollar Futures Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Lima Gomes

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, one could observe a very definite surge in dollar prices in Brazil. Many Brazilian Companies, especially those with large amounts of dollar denominated debt incurred substantial losses due to the strong and fast growth of the dollar. The subsequent dollar price collapse from 2002 to 2008 caused great losses to exporters. In the context of hedge being a form of protection against currency oscillations, this paper aimed to study its effectiveness using the dollar future market in the BM&FBovespa. Specifically, four alternatives for calculating the optimum hedge ratio were compared: a the so called naïve approach, where opposite positions are taken in the spot and future markets; b OLS – Ordinary Least Squares c symmetric bi-variate GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity; d asymmetric bi-variate GARCH. The results showed that both GARCH supported hedge ratios presented higher effectiveness when compared to OLS, with in turn surpassed the naïve one.

  3. Effective correlator for RadioAstron project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sergeev, Sergey

    This paper presents the implementation of programme FX-correlator for Very Long Baseline Interferometry, adapted for the project "RadioAstron". Software correlator implemented for heterogeneous computing systems using graphics accelerators. It is shown that for the task interferometry implementation of the graphics hardware has a high efficiency. The host processor of heterogeneous computing system, performs the function of forming the data flow for graphics accelerators, the number of which corresponds to the number of frequency channels. So, for the Radioastron project, such channels is seven. Each accelerator is perform correlation matrix for all bases for a single frequency channel. Initial data is converted to the floating-point format, is correction for the corresponding delay function and computes the entire correlation matrix simultaneously. Calculation of the correlation matrix is performed using the sliding Fourier transform. Thus, thanks to the compliance of a solved problem for architecture graphics accelerators, managed to get a performance for one processor platform Kepler, which corresponds to the performance of this task, the computing cluster platforms Intel on four nodes. This task successfully scaled not only on a large number of graphics accelerators, but also on a large number of nodes with multiple accelerators.

  4. Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guis, Helene; Caminade, Cyril; Calvete, Carlos; Morse, Andrew P.; Tran, Annelise; Baylis, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases. PMID:21697167

  5. Past and future effects of climate change on spatially heterogeneous vegetation activity in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Jiangbo; Jiao, Kewei; Wu, Shaohong; Ma, Danyang; Zhao, Dongsheng; Yin, Yunhe; Dai, Erfu

    2017-07-01

    Climate change is a major driver of vegetation activity but its complex ecological relationships impede research efforts. In this study, the spatial distribution and dynamic characteristics of climate change effects on vegetation activity in China from the 1980s to the 2010s and from 2021 to 2050 were investigated using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The GWR model was based on combined datasets of satellite vegetation index, climate observation and projection, and future vegetation productivity simulation. Our results revealed that the significantly positive precipitation-vegetation relationship was and will be mostly distributed in North China. However, the regions with temperature-dominated distribution of vegetation activity were and will be mainly located in South China. Due to the varying climate features and vegetation cover, the spatial correlation between vegetation activity and climate change may be altered. There will be different dominant climatic factors for vegetation activity distribution in some regions such as Northwest China, and even opposite correlations in Northeast China. Additionally, the response of vegetation activity to precipitation will move southward in the next three decades. In contrast, although the high warming rate will restrain the vegetation activity, precipitation variability could modify hydrothermal conditions for vegetation activity. This observation is exemplified in the projected future enhancement of vegetation activity in the Tibetan Plateau and weakened vegetation activity in East and Middle China. Furthermore, the vegetation in most parts of North China may adapt to an arid environment, whereas in many southern areas, vegetation will be repressed by water shortage in the future.

  6. NASA Global Hawk Project Update and Future Plans: A New Tool for Earth Science Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naftel, Chris

    2009-01-01

    Science objectives include: First demonstration of the Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS) for NASA and NOAA Earth science research and applications; Validation of instruments on-board the Aura satellite; Exploration of trace gases, aerosols, and dynamics of remote upper Troposphere/lower Stratosphere regions; Sample polar vortex fragments and atmospheric rivers; Risk reduction for future missions that will study hurricanes and atmospheric rivers.

  7. A study of current world telecommunications and a projection of the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karageorgis, Costas

    1992-09-01

    Telecommunications today are important factors in economic and social progress. The last decades of the 20th century and the early years of the 21st have been characterized as the Information Age. Telecommunications, the movement of information through distances, is absolutely critical to the economic and military survival of nations. This thesis is an attempt to predict the future of telecommunications, by studying and analyzing the past and present. First it examines the meaning of telecommunications today and some basics of information transmission. The current status of telecommunications is then presented, by examining the regional profiles as they are divided by the International Telecommunications Union. A number of statistical studies are given, which present a thorough picture of current world telecommunications. In an effort to predict future industry trends, the competition among the three largest telecommunications markets, U.S.A., Japan and the European Community, is also considered by looking at their present telecommunications industry, the efforts they make to improve their technology, and their plans for future investment. Finally, some major technological trends including BISDN, the use of fiber technology in the communications loop, and the use of solitons are examined. The new Metropolitan Area Network Protocol, FDDI-2 is also reviewed.

  8. Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dubrovský, Martin; Hayes, M.; Duce, P.; Trnka, Miroslav; Svoboda, M.; Zara, P.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 5 (2014), s. 1907-1919 ISSN 1436-3798 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.4.31.0056 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * mediteranean * global climate models * temperature * precipitation * drought * palmer drought severity index * weather generator Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.628, year: 2014

  9. [Telemedicine in Bolivia: RAFT-Altiplano project, experiences, future prospects, and recommendations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas, Alejandro; Ugalde, Miguel; Vargas, Reynaldo; Narvaez, Ramiro; Geissbuhler, Antoine

    2014-01-01

    The objective of the RAFT-Altiplano project (RAFT: Réseau en Afrique Francophone pour la Télémédecine, or African Francophone Telemedicine Network) is to evaluate the viability, potential, and risks of implementing and developing a telemedicine network in the context of a developing country-specifically, the Altiplano region of Bolivia-to improve access to medical care and continuing education in a rural area. The activities described in this report took place between 2011 and 2013. Digital telemedicine equipment was donated to the health centers and a Microsoft®-based platform capable of integration with other technologies (using standardized formats) was developed to manage documents and clinical content electronically. Health professionals were trained in teleconsultation and the teleconsultation workflow was designed. The tele-education system used is Dudal, which requires only a small bandwidth. After three years of implementation, an organized working structure of teleconsultation and tele-education tools, adapted to the Latin American context, is now in place and connections have been established with hospitals, institutions, and health centers. The project has improved access to specialized medical care in remote health centers and third-level hospitals in urban areas, and it has become the foundation for development of the national project "TeleSalud for Bolivia" promoted by the Ministry of Health, which involves use of the new Bolivian satellite, Túpac Katari. It is viable to develop and set up telemedicine tools to serve the population in remote regions of Bolivia when they are made available to government and municipal health institutions and communication between them and the health centers takes place in a coordinated manner. The sharing of experiences, challenges, and risks encountered is very useful in designing and implementing the telemedicine project "TeleSalud for Bolivia" on a national scale.

  10. The Study of Nursing Care project: back to the future for contemporary nursing research?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kylie M; Crookes, Patrick A

    2012-11-01

      To discuss the Study of Nursing Care project, an initiative from the late 1970s in the UK. The article explores the impact of the Study of Nursing Care on nursing research, and considers to what extent it presents a useful model for contemporary nursing research.   It is acknowledged internationally that the nursing academic workforce is ageing and dwindling. Many possible solutions are being debated with all agreeing that the next generation of evidence based nurse leaders is urgently required.   In this article, the authors survey existing workforce schemes, describe the Study of Nursing Care series, published in the 1970s, and draw on interviews and correspondence conducted in 2009 with four of the original Study of Nursing Care research assistants.   The Study of Nursing Care project poses a potential response to academic workforce issues. This article discusses the evolution of the project, its methods and operation and considers its possible implications for contemporary practice. Implications for nursing.  The Study of Nursing Care model demonstrates the clear benefits of fully committed funding, a programmatic approach towards research development, and the importance of selecting the right kind of people for the work, in a national scheme.   The authors argue that although the clinical outcomes it set out to achieve remain elusive, the project produced a cohort of nurse researchers who went on to give important leadership in nursing, including in nursing academia/research. A contemporary version of the Study of Nursing Care has important potential to generate the next generation of nurse researchers, and leaders, into the twenty-first century. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. Virtual reality in decommissioning projects: experiences, lessons learned and future plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rindahl, G.; Mark, N.K.F.; Meyer, G.

    2006-01-01

    The work on Virtual Reality (VR) tools for decommissioning planning, dose estimation and work management started at the Norwegian Institute for Energy Technology (IFE) in 1999 in the VR dose project with Japan Nuclear Cycle development institute (JNC), now JAEA. The main aim of this effort has been to help minimize workers' radiation exposure, as well as help to achieve more efficient use of human resources. VR dose is now used in the decommissioning of one of JNC's reactors, the Fugen Nuclear Power Station. This VR decommissioning project has later resulted in a series of projects and applications. In addition to decommissioning, IFE also put great focus on two other branches of VR tools, namely tools for knowledge management, training and education in operating facilities and tools for control room design. During the last years, this work, beginning at different ends, has been converging more and more towards VR technology for use through out the life cycle of a facility. A VR training simulator for a refuelling machine of the Leningrad NPP (LNPP) developed in cooperation with the Russian Research Centre Kurchatov Institute (RRC KI) is now planned to be used in connection with the decommissioning of the three intact reactors at Chernobyl in Ukraine. In this paper we describe experiences from use of VR in decommissioning processes, as well as results from bringing the VR technology initially developed for planned or productive facilities into the decommissioning toolbox. (author)

  12. Support of future lighthouse projects and beyond. Managing the transition to hydrogen for transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ros, M.E.; Jeeninga, H.; Godfroij, P.

    2007-06-01

    Large scale demonstration projects as the 'Lighthouse projects' are an important step towards commercialisation. However, costs for disruptive technologies such as hydrogen, are high in the first phase of market introduction. Therefore, policy support is needed to facilitate the introduction of hydrogen. But, how can the government support and stimulate (early) market introduction and use of hydrogen in the transportation sector? What kind of policy instruments are needed in what phase of the introduction trajectory? And what are the current instruments in the EU and US? Can these affect the introduction of hydrogen in transport? Generally, the hydrogen chain can be stimulated by providing an investment subsidy, production subsidy, tax exemptions and a (production or sales) obligation. Technology specific configurations of these support mechanisms for the diverse technologies in the hydrogen chain have to be taken into account. Besides that the support measures have to act upon each other for every technology development stage. A comparison of the EU and US policies shows differences in the approach of bringing the hydrogen vehicles to the market. The amount of support differs. The US funds RD and D 50% and stimulates the market by obligating sales (ZEV obligation) and procurement, while the EU funds R and D 50%, demonstration 35% and is now looking into large scale demonstration projects, after which the commercial market introduction of hydrogen vehicles is envisaged

  13. Support of future lighthouse projects and beyond. Managing the transition to hydrogen for transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ros, M.E.; Jeeninga, H.; Godfroij, P. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)

    2007-06-15

    Large scale demonstration projects as the 'Lighthouse projects' are an important step towards commercialisation. However, costs for disruptive technologies such as hydrogen, are high in the first phase of market introduction. Therefore, policy support is needed to facilitate the introduction of hydrogen. But, how can the government support and stimulate (early) market introduction and use of hydrogen in the transportation sector? What kind of policy instruments are needed in what phase of the introduction trajectory? And what are the current instruments in the EU and US? Can these affect the introduction of hydrogen in transport? Generally, the hydrogen chain can be stimulated by providing an investment subsidy, production subsidy, tax exemptions and a (production or sales) obligation. Technology specific configurations of these support mechanisms for the diverse technologies in the hydrogen chain have to be taken into account. Besides that the support measures have to act upon each other for every technology development stage. A comparison of the EU and US policies shows differences in the approach of bringing the hydrogen vehicles to the market. The amount of support differs. The US funds RD and D 50% and stimulates the market by obligating sales (ZEV obligation) and procurement, while the EU funds R and D 50%, demonstration 35% and is now looking into large scale demonstration projects, after which the commercial market introduction of hydrogen vehicles is envisaged.

  14. REDD+ projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo: impacts on future emissions, income and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosnier, Aline; Bocqueho, Geraldine; Mant, Rebecca; Obersteiner, Michael; Havlik, Petr; Kapos, Val; Fritz, Steffen; Botrill, Leo

    2014-05-01

    The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) encompasses a large rainforest area which has been rather preserved up to now. However, pressure on the forests is increasing with high population growth, transition toward political stability and the abundance of minerals in the country. REDD+ is a developing mechanism under the UNFCCC that aims to support developing countries that want to make efforts to reduce their emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. The REDD+ strategy in DRC combines an independent national fund and independent REDD+ projects at the local level that are at the initial stage of implementation. The objective of this paper is to assess i) emissions reduction due to the implementation of the REDD+ pilot projects taking into account potential leakage and ii) potential co-benefits of REDD+ pilot projects in terms of biodiversity and rural income by 2030. We use the land use economic model CongoBIOM adapted from GLOBIOM which represents land-based activities and land use changes at a 50x50km resolution level. It includes domestic and international demand for agricultural products, fuel wood and minerals which are the main deforestation drivers in the Congo Basin region. Finally, we run a sensitivity analysis on emissions from land use change according to three different above and below ground living biomass estimates: downscaled FAO, NASA and WHRC.

  15. Future of Finnish energy business - scenarios and strategies. Summary report of the SALKKU research project; Suomalainen tulevaisuuden energialiiketoiminta - skenaariot ja strategiat. SALKKU-hankkeen yhteenvetoraportti

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koljonen, T.; Koreneff, G.; Simila, L. [and others

    2012-05-15

    This report gives a summary of the results of the research project 'Future of Finnish energy business - scenarios and strategies' (SALKKU). The SALKKU research was carried out as a joint research project of VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) and MTT Agrifood Research Finland (MTT). The coordinating partner was VTT. The objective of the project was to assess the future energy business and factors contributing to it up to year 2050. The research in SALKKU is partly a continuation of the work done in the research project 'SEKKI - The Competitiveness of Finnish Energy Industry under Developing Climate Policy', which was a part of the ClimBus-programme of Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology, and the results of which have been published in VTT's and MTT's report series in 2009. The focus in SALKKU project was on assessing future energy businesses by analysing the development of energy demands and supplies as well as energy markets under the influence of future energy and climate policies, depleting fossil resources, growing population, and the economic development. The demand for energy was studied on a global, an EU, and especially on an Asian level. On the supply side the focus was both on fossil reserves and resources and on the technical and the techno-economical potential of field bioenergy. There are vast uncertainties concerning the growth in food demand and changing eating habits on one hand, and the demand for bioenergy on the other hand. The EnTech project by Etlatieto, a subsidiary of ETLA, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, was carried out as a parallel project to SALKKU. The EnTech project assessed the development of energy technology export of the Finnish energy industry. One part of the work at VTT was to analyse the impacts of future climate policies on greenhouse gas emissions, on the development of the energy systems, and on clean energy investments. The area of focus was on long term

  16. Effect of pinhole shape on projection resolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, L C; Metzler, S D; Moore, S C

    2016-01-01

    We are designing a dual-resolution pre-clinical SPECT system based on square-pinhole apertures for use in applications with a small field-of-view (FOV), such as cardiac imaging of mice. Square pinholes allow for increased sensitivity due to more efficient projection tiling on the detector compared to circular pinholes. Aperture fabrication techniques cannot produce a perfect square, giving the square pinholes some amount of roundedness at the corners. This work investigates how this roundedness affects the physical properties of projection images in terms of spatial resolution. Different pinhole full-acceptance angles and roundedness values were simulated. To facilitate a fair comparison, properties of the non-square pinholes were manipulated to yield pinholes with approximately the same sensitivity (to within 0.1%) and FOV (to within 0.5%) as those of the square pinholes, subsequently referred to as matched apertures. The aperture size (flat-to-flat edge length) of each non-square aperture was increased until its sensitivity was approximately equal to that of the square pinhole. Next, the full acceptance angle was increased until the FOV of each non-square aperture was approximately equivalent to that of the square pinhole. Sensitivity was calculated to include both the geometric and penetrative sensitivity of a point source, as well as the packing faction of the multi-pinhole collimator. Using the sensitivity-matched and FOV-matched apertures, spatial resolution was estimated. For the 0.3 mm, 0.5 mm, and 1 mm edge-length square apertures studied, the full-width at half-maximum widened as pinhole shape changed from square to circle, while full-width tenth-maximum showed little change. These results indicate that a perfect square pinhole shape is more desirable than a rounded-square pinhole with regard to spatial resolution when sensitivity and FOV-matched pinholes are compared. (paper)

  17. Effects of Procurement Related Factors on Construction Project ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Several Literatures in construction management support the view that procurements have impacts on project performance. Aim of this study is to investigate the effects of procurement related factors of procurement selection criteria, tendering methods and variation orders on project performance. Purpose of the study is to ...

  18. Effects of Green River Project on Cassava Farmers Production in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper examined the effects of Green River project on cassava farmers' production in Ogba/Egbema/ Ndoni LGA of Rivers State. Purposive and stratified random sampling techniques were used to select the locations of Green River project, cooperative societies and respondents. Using structured questionnaire, a field ...

  19. PERMEABLE TREATMENT WALL EFFECTIVENESS MONITORING PROJECT, NEVADA STEWART MINE

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report summarizes the results of Mine Waste Technology Program (MWTP) Activity III, Project 39, Permeable Treatment Wall Effectiveness Monitoring Project, implemented and funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and jointly administered by EPA and the U.S. De...

  20. Effective Teaching Methods--Project-based Learning in Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holubova, Renata

    2008-01-01

    The paper presents results of the research of new effective teaching methods in physics and science. It is found out that it is necessary to educate pre-service teachers in approaches stressing the importance of the own activity of students, in competences how to create an interdisciplinary project. Project-based physics teaching and learning…

  1. Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gisselle Yang Xie

    Full Text Available Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd, a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary, including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific and also separately per region (region-specific. One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas

  2. Safety criteria for the future LMFBR's in France and main safety issues for the rapide 1500 project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Justin, F.; Natta, M.; Orzoni, G.

    1985-04-01

    The main safety criteria for future LMFBR in France and the related issues for the RAPIDE 1500 project are presented and discussed. The evolutions with respect to SUPERPHENIX options and requirements are emphasized, in particular for the concerns of the prevention of core melt accidents, fuel damage limits and related required performances of the protection system, since one main option is not to consider whole core melt accidents in the containment design. One shall also point out the advantages of some mitigating features which were nevertheless added in the containment design, although without any explicit consideration for core melt accidents

  3. Large-scale water projects in the developing world: Revisiting the past and looking to the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivakumar, Bellie; Chen, Ji

    2014-05-01

    During the past half a century or so, the developing world has been witnessing a significant increase in freshwater demands due to a combination of factors, including population growth, increased food demand, improved living standards, and water quality degradation. Since there exists significant variability in rainfall and river flow in both space and time, large-scale storage and distribution of water has become a key means to meet these increasing demands. In this regard, large dams and water transfer schemes (including river-linking schemes and virtual water trades) have been playing a key role. While the benefits of such large-scale projects in supplying water for domestic, irrigation, industrial, hydropower, recreational, and other uses both in the countries of their development and in other countries are undeniable, concerns on their negative impacts, such as high initial costs and damages to our ecosystems (e.g. river environment and species) and socio-economic fabric (e.g. relocation and socio-economic changes of affected people) have also been increasing in recent years. These have led to serious debates on the role of large-scale water projects in the developing world and on their future, but the often one-sided nature of such debates have inevitably failed to yield fruitful outcomes thus far. The present study aims to offer a far more balanced perspective on this issue. First, it recognizes and emphasizes the need for still additional large-scale water structures in the developing world in the future, due to the continuing increase in water demands, inefficiency in water use (especially in the agricultural sector), and absence of equivalent and reliable alternatives. Next, it reviews a few important success and failure stories of large-scale water projects in the developing world (and in the developed world), in an effort to arrive at a balanced view on the future role of such projects. Then, it discusses some major challenges in future water planning

  4. Pediatric Orthopaedic Workforce in 2014: Current Workforce and Projections for the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawyer, Jeffrey R; Jones, Kerwyn C; Copley, Lawson A; Chambers, Stephanie

    2017-01-01

    The changing nature of the United States (US) health care system has prompted debate concerning the physician supply. The basic questions are: do we have an adequate number of surgeons to meet current demands and are we training the correct number of surgeons to meet future demands? The purpose of this analysis was to characterize the current pediatric orthopaedic workforce in terms of supply and demand, both present and future. Databases were searched (POSNA, SF Match, KID, MGMA) to determine the current pediatric orthopaedic workforce and workforce distribution, as well as pediatric orthopaedic demand. The number of active Pediatric Orthopaedic Society of North America (POSNA) members increased over the past 20 years, from 410 in 1993 to 653 in 2014 (155% increase); however, the density of POSNA members is not equally distributed, but correlates to population density. The number of estimated pediatric discharges, orthopaedic and nonorthopaedic, has remained relatively stable from 6,348,537 in 1997 to 5,850,184 in 2012. Between 2003 and 2013, the number of pediatric orthopaedic fellows graduating from Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education and non-Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education programs increased from 39 to 50 (29%), with a peak of 67 fellows (71%) in 2009. Although predicting the exact need for pediatric orthopaedic surgeons (POS) is impossible because of the complex interplay among macroeconomic, governmental, insurance, and local factors, some trends were identified: the supply of POS has increased, which may offset the expected numbers of experienced surgeons who will be leaving the workforce in the next 10 to 15 years; macroeconomic factors influencing demand for physician services, driven by gross domestic product and population growth, are expected to be stable in the near future; expansion of the scope of practice for POS is expected to continue; and further similar assessments are warranted. Level II-economic and

  5. Possible teleconnections between East and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in projected future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Sumin; Singh, Gyan Prakash; Oh, Jai-Ho; Lee, Kyoung-Min

    2018-01-01

    The present paper examined the teleconnections between two huge Asian summer monsoon components (South and East Asia) during three time slices in future: near-(2010-2039), mid-(2040-2069) and far-(2070-2100) futures under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For this purpose, a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model is used and integrated at 40 km horizontal resolution. To get more insight into the relationships between the two Asian monsoon components, we have studied the spatial displaying correlation coefficients (CCs) pattern of precipitation over the entire Asian monsoon region with that of South Asia and three regions of East Asia (North China, Korea-Japan and Southern China) separately during the same three time slices. The possible factors responsible for these teleconnections are explored by using mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and wind fields at 850 hPa. The CC pattern of precipitation over South Asia shows an in-phase relationship with North China and an out-of-phase relationship with Korea-Japan, while precipitation variations over Korea-Japan and Southern China exhibit an out-of-phase relationship with South Asia. The CCs analysis between the two Asian blocks during different time slices shows the strongest CCs during the near and far future with the RCP8.5 scenario. The CC pattern of precipitation over Korea-Japan and Southern China with the wind (at 850 hPa) and MSLP fields indicate that the major parts of the moisture over Korea-Japan gets transported from the west Pacific along the western limb of NPSH, while the moisture over Southern China comes from the Bay of Bengal and South China Seas for good monsoon activity.

  6. Technology Transfer Programme In Reactor Digital Instrumentation And Control System (REDICS) Project: Knowledge, Experiences And Future Expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nurfarhana Ayuni Joha; Mohamad Puad Abu; Izhar Abu Hussin; Ridzuan Abdul Mutalib; Zareen Khan Abdul Jalil Khan; Mohd Khairulezwan Abdul Manan; Mohd Sabri Minhat; Mohd Idris Taib

    2013-01-01

    The PUSPATI TRIGA MARK II research reactor in Malaysia was commissioned in 1982. After 31 years of operation, Nuclear Malaysia is taking an approach for a better research and development in nuclear radiations as well as the technical services that provided. Reactor TRIGA PUSPATI (RTP) is currently upgrading its control console from analogue to digital system. The Reactor Digital Instrumentation and Control System (ReDICS) project is done on cooperation with Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), Korea including the technical part from the design stage until commissioning as well as the Technology Transfer Program (TTP). TTP in this ReDICS project is a part of Human Resource and System Development Program. It was carried out from the design stage until the commissioning of the system. It covers all subjects related to the design on the digital system and the requirements for the operation of RTP. The objective of this paper is to share the knowledge and experiences gained through this ReDICS project. This paper will also discuss the future expectations from this ReDICS project for Nuclear Malaysia and its personnel, as well as to the country. (author)

  7. The Future of Home Health project: developing the framework for health care at home.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Teresa; Schiller, Jennifer

    2015-02-01

    In addition to providing high-quality care to vulnerable patient populations, home healthcare offers the least costly option for patients and the healthcare system, particularly in postacute care. As the baby boom generation ages, policymakers are expressing concerns about rising costs, variation in home healthcare service use, and program integrity. The Alliance for Home Health Quality and Innovation seeks to develop a research-based strategic framework for the future of home healthcare for older Americans and those with disabilities. This article describes the initiative and invites readers to provide comments and suggestions.

  8. SOAP based web services and their future role in VO projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topf, F.; Jacquey, C.; Génot, V.; Cecconi, B.; André, N.; Zhang, T. L.; Kallio, E.; Lammer, H.; Facsko, G.; Stöckler, R.; Khodachenko, M.

    2011-10-01

    Modern state-of-the-art web services are from crucial importance for the interoperability of different VO tools existing in the planetary community. SOAP based web services assure the interconnectability between different data sources and tools by providing a common protocol for communication. This paper will point out a best practice approach with the Automated Multi-Dataset Analysis Tool (AMDA) developed by CDPP, Toulouse and the provision of VEX/MAG data from a remote database located at IWF, Graz. Furthermore a new FP7 project IMPEx will be introduced with a potential usage example of AMDA web services in conjunction with simulation models.

  9. Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dubrovský, Martin; Hayes, M.; Duce, P.; Trnka, M.; Svoboda, M.; Zara, P.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 5 (2014), s. 1907-1919 ISSN 1436-3798 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300420806; GA MŠk LD12029 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : mediterranean * climate change * global climate models * temperature * precipitation * drought * Palmer drought severity index * weather generator Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.628, year: 2014 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-013-0562-z/fulltext.html

  10. METHODS OF SELECTING THE EFFECTIVE MODELS OF BUILDINGS REPROFILING PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Иванович МЕНЕЙЛЮК

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article highlights the important task of project management in reprofiling of buildings. It is expedient to pay attention to selecting effective engineering solutions to reduce the duration and cost reduction at the project management in the construction industry. This article presents a methodology for the selection of efficient organizational and technical solutions for the reconstruction of buildings reprofiling. The method is based on a compilation of project variants in the program Microsoft Project and experimental statistical analysis using the program COMPEX. The introduction of this technique in the realigning of buildings allows choosing efficient models of projects, depending on the given constraints. Also, this technique can be used for various construction projects.

  11. Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodd, Rory L; Bourke, David; Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

    2014-01-01

    Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly

  12. Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rory L Hodd

    Full Text Available Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1 oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2 species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3 species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need

  13. Future Efforts in Flynn Effect Research: Balancing Reductionism with Holism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A. Mingroni

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available After nearly thirty years of concerted effort by many investigators, the cause or causes of the secular gains in IQ test scores, known as the Flynn effect, remain elusive. In this target article, I offer six suggestions as to how we might proceed in our efforts to solve this intractable mystery. The suggestions are as follows: (1 compare parents to children; (2 consider other traits and conditions; (3 compare siblings; (4 conduct more and better intervention programs; (5 use subtest profile data in context; and (6 quantify the potential contribution of heterosis. This last section contains new simulations of the process of heterosis, which provide a plausible scenario whereby rapid secular changes in multiple genetically influenced traits are possible. If there is any theme to the present paper, it is that future study designs should be simpler and more highly focused, coordinating multiple studies on single populations.

  14. The impact of effective patents on future innovations in nanomedicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosetti, Rita; Vereeck, Lode

    2012-03-01

    The success of nanomedicine is dependent upon an effective protection of IP rights. Unfortunately, the US nanomedicine patent system is dysfunctional because long R&D procedures as well as the patent pendency are insufficiently taken into account. This could be solved by changing the patent-protection starting point and increasing the capacity of the US PTO. The nanotechnology industry also suffers from overlapping patents. This could be avoided by improving the expertise of the PTO, using a more accurate definition of nanotechnology and devising a generally accepted nomenclature that enhances prior-art searches. To avoid disputes, inference practices and strategic patenting can be used. In the case of a dispute, parties can fall back on re-examination, cross-licensing and patent litigation. Cross-licensing agreements are recommended since they allows parties to access technology, create synergies and exclude third-party competitors. Solving the patent problems in the nanotechnology industry is a necessary step for future success.

  15. Current status and future projections of LNG demand and supplies: A global prospective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Satish; Kwon, Hyouk-Tae; Choi, Kwang-Ho; Hyun Cho, Jae; Lim, Wonsub; Moon, Il

    2011-01-01

    An unceasing growth of gas consumption in domestic households, industry, and power plants has gradually turned natural gas into a major source of energy. Main drivers in this development are the technical and economic advantages of natural gas. It is a clean, versatile, and easily controllable fuel. On this basis, natural gas is often considered the form of energy that will be the 'bridging fuel' to a sustainable energy system, sometime after 2050. Unlike other main sources of energy, such as oil and coal, gas is not traded on an actual world market. This paper provides an overview on demand and supplies of natural gas (LNG) in the past as a function of gas prices, gas technology (gas sweetening, liquefaction, shipping and re-gasification), and gas market and how they have changed recently. It also discusses the likely developments in global LNG demand for the period to the year 2030. - Highlights: → This study provides an overview on demand and supplies of LNG in the past and future. → Outlook for LNG demand in Asia pacific region is very robust. → In past decade the shale gas production in USA has increased fivefold. → The future of European gas supply depends largely on the geopolitical environments. → Within the gas sector LNG is playing an ever increasing role in gas transportation.

  16. Staffing requirements for future small and medium reactors (SMRs) based on operating experience and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    At the time of this study there were about 160 small and medium sized nuclear power reactors (referred to as SMRs) in operation worldwide, and about 25 more under construction. Operation and maintenance costs for operating SMRs represent a substantial portion of the cost of electricity produced. Of these costs, the direct and indirect cost of staff represents the major cost component. In recent years, particularly since 1990, there has been increased interest in SMRs by many developing countries wishing to take advantage of nuclear power and several small and medium reactor designs are in various stages of development. To enhance the economic competitive position of SMRs relative to alternative methods of electricity generation, it is essential to ensure that new SMRs can be operated reliably and efficiently using the optimum number of staff. This publication reviews the lessons learned from the reactor operation, and the insights gained through the design of new SMRs, with a view to optimizing staffing in order to improve overall plant economics without compromising safety.This publication is intended to evaluate the estimated staffing size of various SMRs, the staff qualification and training required for the operation of future SMRs. and the key issues which impact the staffing requirements that should be considered in the development and deployment of future SMRs

  17. Effects of interdependencies in project teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Vegt, G.S.; Emans, B.J.M.; Van de Vliert, E.

    The associations between task interdependence, outcome interdependence, and the effectiveness of team members were examined. The sample consisted of 181 employees at 10 engineering companies in The Netherlands. The participants evaluated their interdependence with 1 specific team member and rated

  18. Economic effects of propulsion system technology on existing and future transport aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallee, G. P.

    1974-01-01

    The results of an airline study of the economic effects of propulsion system technology on current and future transport aircraft are presented. This report represents the results of a detailed study of propulsion system operating economics. The study has four major parts: (1) a detailed analysis of current propulsion system maintenance with respect to the material and labor costs encountered versus years in service and the design characteristics of the major elements of the propulsion system of the B707, b727, and B747. (2) an analysis of the economic impact of a future representative 1979 propulsion system is presented with emphasis on depreciation of investment, fuel costs and maintenance costs developed on the basis of the analysis of the historical trends observed. (3) recommendations concerning improved methods of forecasting the maintenance cost of future propulsion systems are presented. A detailed method based on the summation of the projected labor and material repair costs for each major engine module and its installation along with a shorter form suitable for quick, less detailed analysis are presented, and (4) recommendations concerning areas where additional technology is needed to improve the economics of future commercial propulsion systems are presented along with the suggested economic benefits available from such advanced technology efforts.

  19. Streamflow timing of mountain rivers in Spain: Recent changes and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morán-Tejeda, Enrique; Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge; López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio; Rahman, Kazi; Beniston, Martin

    2014-09-01

    Changes in streamflow timing are studied in 27 mountain rivers in Spain, in the context of climate warming. The studied rivers are characterized by a highflows period in spring due to snowmelt, although differences in the role of snow and consequently in the timing of flows are observed amongst cases. We calculated for every year of the studied period (1976-2008) various hydrological indices that enable locating the timing of spring flows within the annual hydrologic regime, including the day of 75% of mass, and the day of spring maximum. The evolution of these indices was compared with that of seasonal precipitation and temperature, and trends in time were calculated. Results show a general negative trend in the studied indices which indicates that spring peaks due to snowmelt are shifting earlier within the hydrological year. Spring temperatures, which show a significant increasing trend, are the main co-variable responsible for the observed changes in the streamflow timing. In a second set of analyses we performed hydrological simulations with the SWAT model, in order to estimate changes in streamflow timing under projected warming temperatures. Projections show further shifting of spring peak flows along with a more pronounced low water level period in the summer. The simulations also allowed quantifying the role of snowfall-snowmelt on the observed changes in streamflow.

  20. Financing of energy-efficient productive industrial projects. Situation and first ideas for the future. Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Billard, Yannael; Julien, Emmanuel; Blaisonneau, Laurent; Streiff, Frederic; Padilla, Sylvie; Benazzi, Eric; Domergue, Bruno; Fraysse, Sebastien; Gaussens, Jean-Pierre; Packeu, Paris; Bodino, Didier; Randimbivololona, Prisca; Verbbrughe, Gregory; Bissonnier, Alain; Dantec, Caroline

    2016-11-01

    Based on in-depth interviews with decision makers and experts belonging to energy consuming industrial groups, or involved in technological offer or in financing, this study addressed the issue of energy efficiency in the industrial sector, and of its financing. Interviewed persons represented 11 large companies, 5 medium-sized companies, and 14 industrial sectors, and 3 main professional profiles (from technical to financial). The authors thus explored current financing models implemented to finance energy efficiency, by analysing existing decision-making processes, brakes on energy efficiency in industry, levers favourable to energy efficiency in industry, operational and functional organisations addressing issues related to energy efficiency, the risk management policy implemented for the assessment and follow-up of investments in energy efficiency, and existing and envisaged financial packages to make these investments possible. As far as financing is concerned, the authors analyse present practices, difficulties faced, good and repeatable practices, and discuss some lines of thought to mobilise actors in order to structure and promote energy efficiency in industrial projects, to reduce the risk for an easier financing of such projects, to structure financing tools, to promote incentive taxes and aids

  1. The Future of Drought in the Southeastern U.S.: Projections from downscaled CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keellings, D.; Engstrom, J.

    2017-12-01

    The Southeastern U.S. has been repeatedly impacted by severe droughts that have affected the environment and economy of the region. In this study the ability of 32 downscaled CMIP5 models, bias corrected using localized constructed analogs (LOCA), to simulate historical observations of dry spells from 1950-2005 are assessed using Perkins skill scores and significance tests. The models generally simulate the distribution of dry days well but there are significant differences between the ability of the best and worst performing models, particularly when it comes to the upper tail of the distribution. The best and worst performing models are then projected through 2099, using RCP 4.5 and 8.5, and estimates of 20 year return periods are compared. Only the higher skill models provide a good estimate of extreme dry spell lengths with simulations of 20 year return values within ± 5 days of observed values across the region. Projected return values differ by model grouping, but all models exhibit significant increases.

  2. Projected Future Distribution of Tsuga canadensis across Alternative Climate Scenarios in Maine, U.S

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathleen Dunckel

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is having an impact on forest ecosystems around the world and is expected to alter the suitable habitat of individual tree species. Forest managers require resources about potential impacts of climate change at the regional scale to aid in climate mitigation efforts. By understanding the geographic distribution of changes in suitable habitat, migration corridors can be identified for conservation and active management. With the increased availability of climate projection data, ancillary Geographic Information Systems data, and field observations, modeling efforts at the regional scale are now possible. Here, we modeled and mapped the continuous distribution of Tsuga canadensis throughout the state of Maine at the regional scale(30 m with high precision (89% of pixels had a coefficient of variation ≤ 4.0%. The random forest algorithm was used to create a strong prediction of suitable habitat for the years 2050 and 2100 from both high and low emission climate projections. The results clearly suggest a significant gain in suitable habitat for Tsuga canadensis range with a general northwest expansion.

  3. Instructional Computing Project Uses "Multiplier Effect" to Train Florida Teachers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roblyer, M. D.; Castine, W. H.

    1987-01-01

    Reviews the efforts undertaken in the Florida Model Microcomputer Trainer Project (FMMTP) and its statewide impact. Outlines its procedural strategies, trainer curriculum, networking system, and the results of its multiplier effect. (ML)

  4. Coal and the greenhouse effect: strategies for the future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, K M [Australian Coal Association, Sydney, NSW (Australia)

    1991-07-01

    A number of gases, including carbon dioxide, methane, water vapour, nitrous oxide, ozone and chlorofluorocarbons are transparent to incoming short-wave radiation, but are relatively opaque to outgoing longwave radiation. Variations in the concentration of these gases in the troposphere can alter the thermal balance of the earth's atmosphere. Outgoing terrestrial radiation which would otherwise escape to space, is trapped within the inner layer of the atmosphere, resulting in a potential warming and the greenhouse effect. It is estimated that at present greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide, contribute about 50% to the greenhouse effect. However, in the future, the contribution made by gases other than CO{sub 2} will be become greater. Greenhouse gases arise from a wide range of sources and their escalating increase is largely related to an increase in the world's population, and the standard of living of many areas as well as changes in lifestyle. The effect of increasing man-made greenhouse gases in the troposphere is unknown, but it is proposed that it may increase temperature and may modify climate, agricultural response and land use. The facts and uncertainties relating to potential greenhouse warming are examined. Man-generated emissions are quantified and their source identified. Coal's contribution worldwide is examined in detail and is shown to be small, being about 10% of man-made greenhouse gases. Strategies for minimising emissions, having maximum potential for reduction, with minimum impact on man are suggested. 16 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs.

  5. Neuropsychological effects of cranial radiation: current knowledge and future directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roman, Deborah D.; Sperduto, Paul W.

    1995-01-01

    Radiation is an invaluable therapeutic tool in the treatment of cancer, with well-established palliative and curative efficacy. As patient survival has improved, attention has focused on long-range treatment side effects. One such adverse effect, neuropsychological impairment, is incompletely understood. Much of the extant research has been directed at childhood leukemia survivors treated with low-dose whole-brain radiation. Less is known about the effects of high-dose focal or whole-brain radiation used in the treatment of brain lesions. This article reviews the scientific literature in this area, with greatest emphasis on methodologically rigorous studies. Research design considerations are discussed. Review findings suggest that low-dose whole-brain radiation (18 to 24 Gy) in children is associated with mild delayed IQ decline, with more substantial deficits occurring in children treated at a young age. A high incidence of learning disabilities and academic failure is observed in this population and may be caused by poor attention and memory rather than low intellectual level. Children who receive higher dose radiation for treatment of brain tumors experience more pronounced cognitive decline. At higher doses, whole-brain radiation, in particular, is linked to deleterious cognitive outcomes. Remarkably little is known about cognitive outcomes in irradiated adults. Preliminary findings indicate that certain cognitive functions, including memory, may be more vulnerable to decline than others. Suggestions for future research are proposed

  6. Neurological Effects of Honey: Current and Future Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Mijanur Rahman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Honey is the only insect-derived natural product with therapeutic, traditional, spiritual, nutritional, cosmetic, and industrial value. In addition to having excellent nutritional value, honey is a good source of physiologically active natural compounds, such as polyphenols. Unfortunately, there are very few current research projects investigating the nootropic and neuropharmacological effects of honey, and these are still in their early stages. Raw honey possesses nootropic effects, such as memory-enhancing effects, as well as neuropharmacological activities, such as anxiolytic, antinociceptive, anticonvulsant, and antidepressant activities. Research suggests that the polyphenol constituents of honey can quench biological reactive oxygen species and counter oxidative stress while restoring the cellular antioxidant defense system. Honey polyphenols are also directly involved in apoptotic activities while attenuating microglia-induced neuroinflammation. Honey polyphenols are useful in improving memory deficits and can act at the molecular level. Therefore, the ultimate biochemical impact of honey on specific neurodegenerative diseases, apoptosis, necrosis, neuroinflammation, synaptic plasticity, and behavior-modulating neural circuitry should be evaluated with appropriate mechanistic approaches using biochemical and molecular tools.

  7. NASA Innovation Fund 2010 Project Elastically Shaped Future Air Vehicle Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Nhan

    2010-01-01

    This report describes a study conducted in 2010 under the NASA Innovation Fund Award to develop innovative future air vehicle concepts. Aerodynamic optimization was performed to produce three different aircraft configuration concepts for low drag, namely drooped wing, inflected wing, and squashed fuselage. A novel wing shaping control concept is introduced. This concept describes a new capability of actively controlling wing shape in-flight to minimize drag. In addition, a novel flight control effector concept is developed to enable wing shaping control. This concept is called a variable camber continuous trailing edge flap that can reduce drag by as much as 50% over a conventional flap. In totality, the potential benefits of fuel savings offered by these concepts can be significant.

  8. Potential Bias in Projecting Future Regional Megadrought Risk: Insights From A Global Data-Model Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T.; Cole, J. E.; Fasullo, J.; Loope, G. R.; Parsons, L. A.; Stevenson, S.

    2015-12-01

    Megadrought is one of the most significant and costly climate extremes, and one that stakeholders (e.g., water and other resource managers) the world over wish to understand better; in particular, they need estimates of the risk of severe droughts as a function of drought frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. In many dry-climate regions of the globe, megadrought is synonymous with multi-decadal drought. However, in other regions, megadrought can be defined as extended drought, mostly not seen in the period of instrumental observations, and that would have large impacts if it were to occur in the future. New and published paleoclimatic observations allow us to understand the spectrum of drought in many regions of the globe; droughts exceeding 50 years have occurred in recent Earth history in southwestern North America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Mediterranean and Australia, whereas shorter megadroughts have occurred in Monsoon Asia, Amazonia and elsewhere. Data-model comparisons for regions with sufficiently long (e.g., 1000-2000 years) records of observed hydroclimatic variability suggest that state-of-the-art models can provide realistic estimates of interannual to decadal drought risk, but underestimate the risk of megadrought. Likely reasons for this shortcoming are the lack of sufficient multi-decadal variability in simulations of the past and future, plus an underappreciated understanding about how temperature variability and land-surface feedbacks interact with hydrological and ecological drought, as well as the roles played by unusually wet hydroclimatic extremes (e.g., ENSO related) in ending droughts of long duration. Paleoclimatic records also provide the opportunity to estimate how much models underestimate megadrought risk as a function of locale, frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration; they also aid in providing stakeholders with bias-corrected estimates of megadrought risk.

  9. Progress of and future plans for the L-4 Blanket Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daenner, W.; Ioki, K.; Cardella, A.

    2001-01-01

    The ITER L-4 Blanket Project has achieved substantial progress over the last two years. The qualification of materials so far considered as reference for the shield module fabrication has been completed, as well as the developments for joining the triplex First Wall structure. Several Primary Wall, baffle, and limiter mock-ups have been manufactured and tested showing comfortable margins against the loads expected in ITER. Shield prototypes have been manufactured by conventional and advanced technology, which have finally demonstrated the manufacturing feasibility. More recently, activities for the qualification of the module attachment system have been started, and first results from materials and mock-up tests have become available. Several test campaigns are still to be finished to complete the data base for the design. In the meantime, further activities have been initiated to adapt the R and D programme to the ITER-FEAT design features, with the aim to further reduce the cost. (author)

  10. Future direction of air separation design for gasification, IGCC and alternative fuel projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allam, R.J.; Castel-Smith, H.; Smith, A.R.; Sorensen, J.C. [Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Low pressure and elevated pressure cryogenic air separation units (ASUs) have successfully been applied to support gasification projects worldwide. ASU technology has ranged from traditional, low pressure, standalone facilities supplying products only to the gasification island, to highly integrated, elevated pressure facilities that obtain air feed from and inject excess nitrogen into a gas turbine. The near-term direction of ASUs is increased single unit capacity, process optimizations that will benefit integration with the new generation of higher pressure ratio and increased capacity gas turbines, and overall ASU facility optimization for the specialized requirements of shipboard units for remote gas conversion processes. Longer-term development is proceeding on compression and driver requirements to support cost improvements for 10,000 to 20,000 merit ton per day oxygen facilities for onshore or platform-based gas conversion processes. 8 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  11. Future direction of air separation design for gasification, IGCC and alternative fuel projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allam, R.J.; Castel-Smith, H.; Smith, A.R.; Sorensen, J.C. (Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (United States))

    1998-01-01

    Low pressure and elevated pressure cryogenic air separation units (ASUs) have successfully been applied to support gasification projects worldwide. ASU technology has ranged from traditional, low pressure, standalone facilities supplying products only to the gasification island, to highly integrated, elevated pressure facilities that obtain air feed from and inject excess nitrogen into a gas turbine. The near-term direction of ASUs is increased single unit capacity, process optimizations that will benefit integration with the new generation of higher pressure ratio and increased capacity gas turbines, and overall ASU facility optimization for the specialized requirements of shipboard units for remote gas conversion processes. Longer-term development is proceeding on compression and driver requirements to support cost improvements for 10,000 to 20,000 merit ton per day oxygen facilities for onshore or platform-based gas conversion processes. 8 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  12. Projecting hydropower production under future climates: a review of modelling challenges and open questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefli, Bettina

    2015-04-01

    Hydropower is a pillar for renewable electricity production in almost all world regions. The planning horizon of major hydropower infrastructure projects stretches over several decades and consideration of evolving climatic conditions plays an ever increasing role. This review of model-based climate change impact assessments provides a synthesis of the wealth of underlying modelling assumptions, highlights the importance of local factors and attempts to identify the most urgent open questions. Based on existing case studies, it critically discusses whether current hydro-climatic modelling frameworks are likely to provide narrow enough water scenario ranges to be included into economic analyses for end-to-end climate change impact assessments including electricity market models. This will be completed with an overview of not or indirectly climate-related boundary conditions, such as economic growth, legal constraints, national subsidy frameworks or growing competition for water, which might locally largely outweigh any climate change impacts.

  13. Energy, electricity and nuclear power: Developments and projections - 25 years past and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-12-01

    This report is based on the annual IAEA publication, Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2030, Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1). The IAEA has been publishing RDS-1 since 1981. It reports on the current status and estimates of energy use, electricity generation and nuclear power generation in various regions of the world for the medium to long term. The estimates are prepared in close collaboration and consultation with several international, regional and national organizations dealing with energy related statistics, such as the United Nations Department of Economic Affairs, the International Energy Agency (IEA), the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA), the World Bank, the World Nuclear Agency (WNA), the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), as well as several international energy experts. The latest issue is the 27th edition, reporting estimates for the next 24 years using 2006 as the base year. During its 26 years of regular publication, several adjustments were made to the definitions and methodology for compiling the energy data, in order to improve the quality of the data. These adjustments were in line with the overall efforts at the international level to harmonize energy statistics. For example, the United Nations Statistical Commission has been making efforts to synchronize its data series under various programmes. For RDS-1, one such adjustment was made in 2005 when the average thermal efficiency method was adopted to convert electricity produced by nuclear power plants from kilowatt-hours to joules. This had a significant impact on the values of total energy use. At this stage, the entire historical data series was also adjusted. This report provides these harmonized data series on energy use, electricity generation and nuclear power generation for the 25 year period (1980-2005). The report also compares the nuclear power projections made in the past with the projections made in

  14. Global Analysis of Climate Change Projection Effects on Atmospheric Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espinoza, Vicky; Waliser, Duane E.; Guan, Bin; Lavers, David A.; Ralph, F. Martin

    2018-05-01

    A uniform, global approach is used to quantify how atmospheric rivers (ARs) change between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 historical simulations and future projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 warming scenarios. The projections indicate that while there will be 10% fewer ARs in the future, the ARs will be 25% longer, 25% wider, and exhibit stronger integrated water vapor transports (IVTs) under RCP8.5. These changes result in pronounced increases in the frequency (IVT strength) of AR conditions under RCP8.5: 50% (25%) globally, 50% (20%) in the northern midlatitudes, and 60% (20%) in the southern midlatitudes. The models exhibit systematic low biases across the midlatitudes in replicating historical AR frequency ( 10%), zonal IVT ( 15%), and meridional IVT ( 25%), with sizable intermodel differences. A more detailed examination of six regions strongly impacted by ARs suggests that the western United States, northwestern Europe, and southwestern South America exhibit considerable intermodel differences in projected changes in ARs.

  15. Sesame improvement by induced mutations: Results of the co-ordinated research project and recommendation for future studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zanten, L. van

    2001-01-01

    The FAO/IAEA Co-ordinated Research Project has brought together sesame breeders from 11 countries. They, together with pathologists, agronomists and physiologists, have made considerable effort to advance the genetic improvement in sesame. The results and conclusions from this project cover the mutation techniques used for the genetic improvement of various aspects of sesame. These recommendations do not only deal with the application of mutation induction, but also with the wider plant breeding related objectives and methods to be considered for this semi-domesticated crop. It is clear that more advanced techniques can and should be incorporated in the process which would enhance the genetic improvement. Although five years is a relatively limited time in a plant breeding programme, the participants have been able to produce and make available a considerable pool of agronomically interesting mutant sesame germplasm. The participants in the CRP considered that, together with other specialists, plant breeders can gain fuller benefit from the mutations induced by radiation or chemicals. Work on these mutants must continue in co-operation/consultation with plant physiologists and pathologists, and with biotechnologists who may in the future be able to provide in the future methods for introducing beneficial traits from other crops into sesame. The sesame programme should include scientists from the Member States where sesame grows and scientists from developed countries who may have greater access to physiological and molecular research facilities. (author)

  16. Projected Temperature-Related Years of Life Lost From Stroke Due To Global Warming in a Temperate Climate City, Asia: Disease Burden Caused by Future Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guoxing; Guo, Qun; Liu, Yang; Li, Yixue; Pan, Xiaochuan

    2018-04-01

    Global warming has attracted worldwide attention. Numerous studies have indicated that stroke is associated with temperature; however, few studies are available on the projections of the burden of stroke attributable to future climate change. We aimed to investigate the future trends of stroke years of life lost (YLL) associated with global warming. We collected death records to examine YLL in Tianjin, China, from 2006 to 2011. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson regression model after controlling for trends, day of the week, relative humidity, and air pollution. We estimated temperature-YLL associations with a distributed lag nonlinear model. These models were then applied to the local climate projections to estimate temperature-related YLL in the 2050s and 2070s. We projected temperature-related YLL from stroke in Tianjin under 19 global-scale climate models and 3 different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results showed a slight decrease in YLL with percent decreases of 0.85%, 0.97%, and 1.02% in the 2050s and 0.94%, 1.02%, and 0.91% in the 2070s for the 3 scenarios, respectively. The increases in heat-related annual YLL and the decreases in cold-related YLL under the high emission scenario were the strongest. The monthly analysis showed that the most significant increase occurred in the summer months, particularly in August, with percent changes >150% in the 2050s and up to 300% in the 2070s. Future changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related YLL, and this increase will not be offset by adaptation under both medium emission and high emission scenarios. Health protections from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold effects will also remain important. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

  17. Chernobyl Studies Project - working group 7.0 environmental transport and health effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hendrickson, S.M.

    1994-01-01

    The DOE-funded Chernobyl Studies Project was begun as part of a cooperative agreement between the US and the former USSR, (quote) To develop jointly methods to project rapidly the health effects of any future reactor accident (quote). Most of the initial tasks for this project are completed or near completion. The focus has now turned primarily to the issue of health effects from the Chernobyl accident. Currently, we are extensively engaged in case-control and cohort studies of thyroid diseases among Belarussian children and in the Ukraine. A major part of the effort is providing methods and applications of dose reconstruction and providing support and equipment for the medical teams. This document contains reports on progress in the following task areas: Management; External Dose; Hydrological Transport; Chromosome Painting Dosimetry; Stochastic Effects; Thyroid Studies; and Leukemia Studies

  18. Future coral reef habitat marginality: Temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guinotte, J.M.; Buddemeier, R.W.; Kleypas, J.A.

    2003-01-01

    Marginal reef habitats are regarded as regions where coral reefs and coral communities reflect the effects of steady-state or long-term average environmental limitations. We used classifications based on this concept with predicted time-variant conditions of future climate to develop a scenario for the evolution of future marginality. Model results based on a conservative scenario of atmospheric CO2 increase were used to examine changes in sea surface temperature and aragonite saturation state over the Pacific Ocean basin until 2069. Results of the projections indicated that essentially all reef locations are likely to become marginal with respect to aragonite saturation state. Significant areas, including some with the highest biodiversity, are expected to experience high-temperature regimes that may be marginal, and additional areas will enter the borderline high temperature range that have experienced significant ENSO-related bleaching in the recent past. The positive effects of warming in areas that are presently marginal in terms of low temperature were limited. Conditions of the late 21st century do not lie outside the ranges in which present-day marginal reef systems occur. Adaptive and acclimative capabilities of organisms and communities will be critical in determining the future of coral reef ecosystems.

  19. General consideration of effective plutonium utilization in future LWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishikawa, Nobuyuki; Okubo, Tsutomu

    2009-01-01

    In this study, the potential of mixed oxide fueled light water reactors (MOX-LWRs), especially focusing on the high conversion type LWRs (HC-LWRs) such as FLWR are evaluated in terms of both economic aspect and effective use of plutonium. For economics consideration, relative economics positions of MOX-LWRs are clarified comparing the cost of electricity for uranium fueled LWRs (U-LWRs), MOX-LWRs and fast breeder reactors (FBRs) assuming future natural uranium price raise and variation of parameters such as construction cost and capacity factor. Also the economic superiority of MOX utilization against the uranium use is mentioned from the view point of plutonium credit concerning to the front-end fuel cycle cost. In terms of effective use of plutonium, comparative evaluations on plutonium mass balance in the cases of HC-LWR and high moderation type LWRs (HM-LWRs) taking into account plutonium quality (ratio of fissile to total plutonium) constraint in multiple recycling are performed as representative MOX utilization cases. Through this evaluation, the advantageous features of plutonium multiple recycling by HC-LWR are clarified. From all these results, merits of the introduction of HC-LWRs are discussed. (author)

  20. Integrated viral clearance strategies-reflecting on the present, projecting to the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roush, David J

    2018-01-20

    Viral clearance and inactivation are critical steps in ensuring the safety of biological products derived from mammalian cell culture and are a component of an adventitious agent control strategy which spans both upstream and downstream processes. Although these approaches have been sufficient to support the development of biologics to date, the empirical and semi-quantitative nature of the approach leaves some potential gaps. For example, the concept of performing a quantitative risk assessment for the downstream components of virus safety was introduced in ICH Q5A for XMuLV. An ideal future state would be to perform a similar quantitative risk assessment for a range of viruses based on an assessment of potential virus risk in both upstream and downstream processes. This assessment combined with an integrated control strategy (including monitoring) would be extremely beneficial in minimizing potential adventitious agent risks. Significant progress has been achieved towards this goal in the last several years including recent advances in quantification of virus sequences in cell banks (ADVTIG), development of truly modular or generic viral clearance claims for specific unit operations, enhanced controls of upstream media (HTST/nanofiltration) and the use of RVLP for in-process monitoring. The recent shift towards continuous processing has the potential to enhance the criticality of in-line monitoring and the complexity of viral clearance and inactivation (owing to a wide range of potential 'worst case' viral clearance scenarios). However, gaps exist in, firstly, the ability to quantify potential virus risk levels in process streams in real-time, secondly, mechanistic understanding of virus/chromatography media interactions, and thirdly, mechanistic understanding of virus/filter interactions. Some new technologies may also need to be developed to allow for real-time confirmation of virus inactivation and clearance to support process development (both batch and

  1. Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean

  2. Plastic surgery: quo vadis? Current trends and future projections of aesthetic plastic surgical procedures in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broer, P Niclas; Levine, Steven M; Juran, Sabrina

    2014-03-01

    The objective of this article was to evaluate past and current trends regarding aesthetic operations in the United States and to project future changes regarding such procedures. Cosmetic surgery statistics from the American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery from 1997 to 2012 were analyzed by sex, age, and ethnic group. Then, using population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau based on the 2010 census, two projection scenarios of the expected number of aesthetic plastic surgery procedures were generated. The scenarios included the presumed occurrence and nonoccurrence of a recession like that which occurred in 2007. Aesthetic procedures are expected to grow from 1,688,694 in 2012 to 3,847,929 by 2030, representing an average annual growth rate of 7.1 percent. Should another recession of similar degree to the one in 2007 occur, procedures would increase to only 2,086,994, displaying an average annual growth percentage rate of 1.3 percent. Because the age distribution of the patient population will change, preferences for specific procedures according to age influence-and thus are reflected in-future demand for those procedures. Furthermore, the ethnic profile of patients will change significantly, with 32 percent of all procedures being performed on patients other than Caucasians by 2030. Demand for aesthetic plastic surgical procedures is expected to continue to grow, while depending on the economic performance at the macro level and changing demographic dynamics of the U.S. population. Considering all investigated factors and trends among all patients, the most commonly requested procedures by 2030 are likely to be (1) breast augmentations, (2) lipoplasties, and (3) blepharoplasties.

  3. Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Preus, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-11-01

    Wind power is one of the fastest growing sources of new electricity generation in the United States. Cumulative installed capacity was more than 74,000 megawatts (MW) at year-end 2015 and wind power supplied 4.7% of total 2015 U.S. electricity generation. Despite the growth of the wind power industry, the distributed wind market has remained limited. Cumulative installations of distributed wind through 2015 totaled 934 MW. This first-of-a-kind exploratory analysis characterizes the future opportunity for behind-the-meter distributed wind, serving primarily rural or suburban homes, farms, and manufacturing facilities. This work focuses only on the grid-connected, behind-the-meter subset of the broader distributed wind market. We estimate this segment to be approximately half of the 934 MW of total installed distributed wind capacity at year-end 2015. Potential from other distributed wind market segments including systems installed in front of the meter (e.g., community wind) and in remote, off-grid locations is not assessed in this analysis and therefore, would be additive to results presented here. These other distributed wind market segments are not considered in this initial effort because of their relatively unique economic and market attributes.

  4. Contributions of internal climate variability to mitigation of projected future regional sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, A.; Bates, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    Observations indicate that the global mean surface temperature is rising, so does the global mean sea level. Sea level rise (SLR) can impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities, especially when SLR is compounded with storm surges. Here, via analyzing results from two sets of ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1, we investigate how the potential SLR benefits through mitigating the future emission scenarios from business as usual to a mild-mitigation over the 21st Century would be affected by internal climate variability. Results show that there is almost no SLR benefit in the near term due to the large SLR variability due to the internal ocean dynamics. However, toward the end of the 21st century, the SLR benefit can be as much as a 26±1% reduction of the global mean SLR due to seawater thermal expansion. Regionally, the benefits from this mitigation for both near and long terms are heterogeneous. They vary from just a 11±5% SLR reduction in Melbourne, Australia to a 35±6% reduction in London. The processes contributing to these regional differences are the coupling of the wind-driven ocean circulation with the decadal scale sea surface temperature mode in the Pacific and Southern Oceans, and the changes of the thermohaline circulation and the mid-latitude air-sea coupling in the Atlantic.

  5. Staffing requirements for future small and medium reactors based on projections in the Russian Federation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonovsky, G.M.; Kodochigov, N.G.; Kurachenkov, A.V.; Novikov, V.V.

    2001-01-01

    Experimental Design Bureau of Mechanical Engineering (OKBM) specializes in the development of small and medium power reactors having different purposes. They include reactor plants for NPHPP, nuclear district heating power plants and propulsion plants. Small and medium power plants have simpler processes of electricity and heat production, less systems, simpler control algorithms and considerably enhanced inherent safety properties. These plants are mainly equipped with passive safety systems. These properties are especially characteristic for reactor plants of nuclear district heating power plants and HTG reactor plants. The designs of small and medium power plants actually provide a high degree of control automation which considerably reduces workload on the personnel in both normal and abnormal operation conditions. All this allows the reduction in personnel for small and medium power reactors if compared to high capacity reactor plants. But due to objective reasons the specific number of personnel (man/MW) for average and especially small capacity reactors considerably exceeds the value for high capacity reactor plants. At the same time one can propose a set of organization - technical measures allowing the increase in this value in future. Safety requirements imposed for small and average capacity reactors are the same or more strict than those for high capacity reactors. That's why the requirements to the training of personnel for such reactor plants are not allowed to be lowered if compared to the requirements imposed to the personnel of high capacity reactors. (author)

  6. The bioeroding sponge Cliona orientalis will not tolerate future projected ocean warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsby, Blake D; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Smith, Hillary A; Whalan, Steve; Webster, Nicole S

    2018-05-29

    Coral reefs face many stressors associated with global climate change, including increasing sea surface temperature and ocean acidification. Excavating sponges, such as Cliona spp., are expected to break down reef substrata more quickly as seawater becomes more acidic. However, increased bioerosion requires that Cliona spp. maintain physiological performance and health under continuing ocean warming. In this study, we exposed C. orientalis to temperature increments increasing from 23 to 32 °C. At 32 °C, or 3 °C above the maximum monthly mean (MMM) temperature, sponges bleached and the photosynthetic capacity of Symbiodinium was compromised, consistent with sympatric corals. Cliona orientalis demonstrated little capacity to recover from thermal stress, remaining bleached with reduced Symbiodinium density and energy reserves after one month at reduced temperature. In comparison, C. orientalis was not observed to bleach during the 2017 coral bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef, when temperatures did not reach the 32 °C threshold. While C. orientalis can withstand current temperature extremes (<3 °C above MMM) under laboratory and natural conditions, this species would not survive ocean temperatures projected for 2100 without acclimatisation or adaptation (≥3 °C above MMM). Hence, as ocean temperatures increase above local thermal thresholds, C. orientalis will have a negligible impact on reef erosion.

  7. Future Projections of Fire Occurrence in Brazil Using EC-Earth Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Silva

    Full Text Available Abstract Fire has a fundamental role in the Earth system as it influences global and local ecosystem patterns and processes, such as vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle and climate. Since, in the global context, Brazil is one of the regions with higher fire activity, an assessment is here performed of the sensitivity of the wildfire regime in Brazilian savanna and shrubland areas to changes in regional climate during the 21st Century, for an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5 of climate change. The assessment is based on a spatial and temporal analysis of a meteorological fire danger index specifically developed for Brazilian biomes, which was evaluated based on regional climate simulations of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4 forced by the EC-Earth earth system model. Results show a systematic increase in the extreme levels of fire danger throughout the 21st Century that mainly results from the increase in maximum daily temperature, which rises by about 2 °C between 2005 and 2100. This study provides new insights about projected fire activity in Brazilian woody savannas associated to climate change and is expected to benefit the user community, from governmental policies to land management and climate researches.

  8. Advanced neutron source project information management. A model for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King-Jones, K.; Cleaves, J.

    1995-01-01

    The Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) is a proposed new research facility that will provide steady-state beams of neutrons for experiments by more than 1000 researchers per year in the fields of materials science and engineering, biology, chemistry, materials analysis, and nuclear science. The facility will also include irradiation capabilities to produce radioisotopes for medical applications, research, industry, and materials testing. This paper discusses the architecture and data flow used by the project, some quantitative examinations of potential cost savings and return on investment and software applications used to generate and manage data across IBM-compatible personal computers, Macintosh, and Unix-based workstations. Personnel management aspects addressed include providing paper copy to users only when needed for adequate technical review, using graded approaches to providing support for numerous user-needed software applications, and implementing a phased approach to compliance with computer-aided acquisition and logistic support (CALS) standards that allows sufficient user flexibility for performing technical tasks while providing needed data sharing and integration

  9. Advanced Neutron Source project information management: A model for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King-Jones, K.; Cleaves, J.

    1995-01-01

    The Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) is a proposed new research facility that will provide steady-state beams of neutrons for experiments by more than 1,000 researchers per year in the fields of materials science and engineering, biology, chemistry, materials analysis, and nuclear science. The facility will also include irradiation capabilities to produce radioisotopes for medical applications, research, industry, and materials testing. This paper discusses the architecture and data flow used by the project, some quantitative examinations of potential cost savings and return on investment, and software applications used to generate and manage data across IBM-compatible personal computers, Macintosh, and Unix-based workstations. Personnel management aspects addressed include providing paper copy to users only when needed for adequate technical review, using graded approaches to providing support for numerous user-needed software applications, and implementing a phased approach to compliance with computer-aided acquisition and logistic support (CALS) standards that allows sufficient user flexibility for performing technical tasks while providing needed data sharing and integration

  10. Projected Impact of Compositional Verification on Current and Future Aviation Safety Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reveley, Mary S.; Withrow, Colleen A.; Leone, Karen M.; Jones, Sharon M.

    2014-01-01

    The projected impact of compositional verification research conducted by the National Aeronautic and Space Administration System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technologies on aviation safety risk was assessed. Software and compositional verification was described. Traditional verification techniques have two major problems: testing at the prototype stage where error discovery can be quite costly and the inability to test for all potential interactions leaving some errors undetected until used by the end user. Increasingly complex and nondeterministic aviation systems are becoming too large for these tools to check and verify. Compositional verification is a "divide and conquer" solution to addressing increasingly larger and more complex systems. A review of compositional verification research being conducted by academia, industry, and Government agencies is provided. Forty-four aviation safety risks in the Biennial NextGen Safety Issues Survey were identified that could be impacted by compositional verification and grouped into five categories: automation design; system complexity; software, flight control, or equipment failure or malfunction; new technology or operations; and verification and validation. One capability, 1 research action, 5 operational improvements, and 13 enablers within the Federal Aviation Administration Joint Planning and Development Office Integrated Work Plan that could be addressed by compositional verification were identified.

  11. Potential for a hazardous geospheric response to projected future climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, B

    2010-05-28

    Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the geosphere, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. The response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a broad range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and subaerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide 'splash' waves, glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilization. In relation to anthropogenic climate change, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a warmer world, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere. Here, the potential influences of anthropogenic warming are reviewed in relation to an array of geological and geomorphological hazards across a range of environmental settings. A programme of focused research is advocated in order to: (i) understand better those mechanisms by which contemporary climate change may drive hazardous geological and geomorphological activity; (ii) delineate those parts of the world that are most susceptible; and (iii) provide a more robust appreciation of potential impacts for society and infrastructure.

  12. The Asian Development Bank's past and future involvement in financing gas projects in developing member countries of the Bank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chua, S.B.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents a review of the Bank's involvement in financing gas projects in its developing member countries (DMC's). The paper highlights the scope of the Bank's past activities in the sector, the DMC's which had received assistance from the Bank, the types of projects financed by the Bank, the benefits expected to be derived from the projects, and the past problems encountered by the Bank. The operational framework under which past Bank lending to the gas sector was conducted is also described. The prospects of natural gas playing a prominent role as an environmentally preferred energy source to oil and coal are outlined. Indications of the direction of the Bank's future efforts to help its gas-resource-rich as well as its gas-resource-poor DMC's to quicken the use of natural gas are given. While emphasizing the Bank's contributions in helping its DMC's to increase gas supply to alleviate energy shortages, the paper stresses the important role the Bank has played and will play in institution-building and sector-development work. The paper explores the possibility for the Bank to expand its operations in the gas sector which will lead to the efficient and accelerated development of a clean energy source that will help its DMC's avoid a third oil crisis and reduce the damaging build-up of a greenhouse gas which now threatens to harm the global environment

  13. A method to encapsulate model structural uncertainty in ensemble projections of future climate: EPIC v1.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Jared; Bodeker, Greg E.; Kremser, Stefanie; Tait, Andrew

    2017-12-01

    computationally efficient than running multiple GCM or RCM simulations. Such a large ensemble of projections permits a description of a probability density function (PDF) of future climate states rather than a small number of individual story lines within that PDF, which may not be representative of the PDF as a whole; the EPIC method largely corrects for such potential sampling biases. The method is useful for providing projections of changes in climate to users wishing to investigate the impacts and implications of climate change in a probabilistic way. A web-based tool, using the EPIC method to provide probabilistic projections of changes in daily maximum and minimum temperatures for New Zealand, has been developed and is described in this paper.

  14. The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

    2018-01-01

    Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth’s climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased

  15. The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

    2017-11-01

    Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased

  16. Team effectiveness in Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, Khawaja Fawad; Williams, Nigel

    2017-10-01

    The incorporation of team context into research and practice regarding team effectiveness in NGOs projects is a constant challenge. The research seeks to address the gap and identify the critical determinants of team effectiveness in projects undertaken by non-governmental organizations. Using a systematic process, the study involved both literature and focus group discussions to generate the required items. A total of 157 respondents (Team Members and Team Leaders) were part of the study that filled the questionnaires. Using exploratory factor analysis followed by confirmatory factor analysis, both convergent and discriminant validity was established. The present study found that team effectiveness in NGO social projects has a total of seven dimensions namely: Inter team coordination, community social linkage, team performance, knowledge, skills, and attitudes, leadership communication and engagement, decision making and information sharing, and team formation. There is a significant lack of research on team effectiveness in NGO projects. Where considerably large proportion of research on team effectiveness has focused on the corporate sector, the non-governmental teams have been neglected. This study clearly highlights the determinants that make up team effectiveness in NGOs. The determinants identified will help to specifically look at the effectiveness of teams in NGO projects. The study would help NGOs identify the dimensions in which they may be performing in a weaker manner and direct their energies in improving the factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Changes in the flood frequency in the Mahanadi basin under observed and projected future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modi, P. A.; Lakshmi, V.; Mishra, V.

    2017-12-01

    The Mahanadi river basin is vulnerable to multiple types of extreme events due to its topography and river networks. These extreme events are not efficiently captured by the current LSMs partly due to lack of spatial hydrological data and uncertainty in the models. This study compares and evaluates the hydrologic simulations of the recently developed community Noah model with multi-parameterization options which is an upgradation of baseline Noah LSM. The model is calibrated and validated for the Mahanadi river basin and is driven by major atmospheric forcing from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), Tropical rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP designed for hydrological modeling) precipitation datasets along with some additional forcing derived from the VIC model at 0.25-degree spatial resolution. The Noah-MP LSM is calibrated using observed daily streamflow data from 1978-1989 (India-WRIS) at the gauge stations with least human interventions with a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency higher than 0.60. Noah MP was calibrated using different schemes for runoff with variation in all parameters sensitive to surface and sub-surface runoff. Streamflow routing was performed using a stand-alone model (VIC model) to route daily model runoff at required gauge station. Surface runoff is mainly affected by the uncertainties in major atmospheric forcing and highly sensitive parameters pertaining to soil properties. Noah MP is validated using observed streamflow from 1975-2010 which indicates the consistency of streamflow with the historical observations (NSE>0.65) thus indicating an increase in probability of future flood events.

  18. Future semiconductor material requirements and innovations as projected in the ITRS 2005 roadmap

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arden, Wolfgang

    2006-01-01

    The international technology roadmap for semiconductors (ITRS) is a joint global effort of the semiconductor industry, the manufacturing equipment and material industry and the research community and consortia to define the future requirements and development of the semiconductor technology for the next 15 years. The ITRS started in 1992 as a US-national roadmap and became an international effort in 1998 with all major five industrial global regions (US, Japan, Taiwan, Korea and Europe) participating in its definition. The outlook in semiconductor manufacturing expects the continuous application of silicon technology for the next 15 years where complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) based devices will carry the development of the industry at least for one more decade. New device architectures and concepts based on silicon wafer material are being developed to support the development of the IC industry for another one or two decade. The major section of the ITRS contains technical information about frontend processing and interconnects, device structures and memory concepts, lithography and metrology as well as factory integration and environmental issues. This paper will review the material requirements and the expected material innovations for the industry as outlined in the ITRS Version 2005. Materials to be discussed are, for example, high permittivity gate dielectrics, insulating layers with low dielectric constants for interconnects, and capacitor dielectrics for dynamic memories. In addition, the paper will address, for example, new transistor gate materials, new solutions for interconnect systems beyond copper as well as new starting materials for wafer sizes beyond 300 mm. This publication was presented as an invited paper in the Symposium V of the 2006 spring meeting of the European Materials Research Society (E-MRS) in Nice, May 29th

  19. Financing arrangements for nuclear power projects - Past and present experience, future expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Troncuta, Mariana; Vatamanu, Maria; Ispas, Gheorghe

    2003-01-01

    Nuclear energy is a clean, safe, and economical industrial electricity source, with many environmental benefits. It does not emit greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change, or combustion by-products and acid gases that cause air, water resource and land pollution. Nuclear energy has also many benefits in the areas of medicine, industry, agriculture, and research. Moreover, the results are revealing. Over the past 12 years, from 1900 to 2002, the global 'energy availability factor' - representing the percentage of time that nuclear power plants worldwide were up and running - increased from 72.9% to 83.4%. At the same time, based on statistics gathered by the World Association of Nuclear Operators - WANO, the number of industrial accidents has gone down, radiation exposure has dropped sharply and the annual volume of radioactive waste produced has been reduced substantially. In other words, the safety, performance and economic competitiveness of the nuclear industry are at an all time high, reflecting a mature and vibrant enterprise. These are several reasons why a prospective host nation and other nations around the world may be attracted by nuclear power generation. Nuclear power can be and has been financed by world capital markets. The crucial question is whether host governments and interested utilities are willing to take the steps required to attract investment with reasonable assurance of success, and whether the nuclear industry is willing and able to become competitive in increasingly deregulated financial and electricity markets. The present paper will have the following structure: the first part will refer to general financing guidelines, and the second part will present a case study. The latter will treat the past experience as provided by the financing scheme of Cernavoda NPP Unit 1, the present experience, i.e. ongoing financing issues for Cernavoda NPP Unit 2 and potential future shared contribution to financing Cernavoda NPP Unit 3, 4 and 5

  20. From Past to future: the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project's contribution to CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kageyama, Masa; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy; Haywood, Alan; Jungclaus, Johann; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako

    2016-04-01

    Since the 1990s, PMIP has developed with the following objectives: 1/to evaluate the ability of climate models used for climate prediction in simulating well-documented past climates outside the range of present and recent climate variability; 2/to understand the mechanisms of these climate changes, in particular the role of the different climate feedbacks. To achieve these goals, PMIP has actively fostered paleo-data syntheses, multi-model analyses, including analyses of relationships between model results from past and future simulations, and model-data comparisons. For CMIP6, PMIP will focus on five past periods: - the Last Millennium (850 CE - present), to analyse natural climate variability on multidecadal or longer time-scales - the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago, to compare model runs with paleodata for a period of warmer climate in the Northern Hemisphere, with an enhanced hydrological cycle - the Last Glacial Maximum, 21000 years ago, to evaluate the ability of climate models to represent a cold climate extreme and examine whether paleoinformation about this period can help and constrain climate sensitivity - the Last InterGlacial (~127,000 year ago), which provides a benchmark for a period of high sea-level stand - the mid-Pliocene warm period (~3.2 million years ago), which allows for the evaluation of the model's long-term response to a CO2 level analogous to the modern one. This poster will present the rationale of these "PMIP4-CMIP6" experiments. Participants are invited to come and discuss about the experimental set-up and the model output to be distributed via CMIP6. For more information and discussion of the PMIP4-CMIP6 experimental design, please visit: https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/pmip3/doku.php/pmip3:cmip6:design:index

  1. The Effects of Weather on Oilseed Rape (OSR Yield in China: Future Implications of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaqin He

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the role of climatic factors on crop yields is essential in predicting the future impact of climate change. In order to understand the influence of climatic factors on OSR, detailed farm-level panel data from 2566 farms across 67 counties of the 6 major OSR production regions in China, from the surveys conducted by the national OSR industry project between 2008 and 2013, were used to examine the contribution of changes in selected climatic variables between 2008 and 2013 to yield variation. Spatial and temporal patterns of the relationships between OSR yield, climatic factors were estimated together with the effects of farmer adaptation and management practices on yield variability. The analysis revealed that yields in the low-latitude production regions were more sensitive to temperature increases and likely to decline. Precipitation iwas the most influential factor on yield at the first two growth stages; temperature and sunshine hours were most important at the third and fourth growth stages, respectively. Labour input was the most influential management factor affecting yields compared with fertilizer and other inputs. The study concludes that projection of future climate change impacts will need inter alia to incorporate more sophisticated and detailed measures of climatic variables than simple means of temperature and precipitation, incorporating timing in relation to plant growth and yield.

  2. Climate and oceanic fisheries: recent observations and projections and future needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salinger, M.J.; Bell, Johan D.; Evans, Karen

    2013-01-01

    Several lines of evidence show that climatic variation and global warming can have a major effect on fisheries production and replenishment. To prevent overfishing and rebuild overfished stocks under changing and uncertain environmental conditions, new research partnerships between fisheries scie...... scientists and climate change experts are required. The International Workshop on Climate and Oceanic Fisheries held in Rarotonga, Cook Islands, 3–5......Several lines of evidence show that climatic variation and global warming can have a major effect on fisheries production and replenishment. To prevent overfishing and rebuild overfished stocks under changing and uncertain environmental conditions, new research partnerships between fisheries...

  3. Past and future spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and effective moisture on the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yunhe; Wu, Shaohong; Zhao, Dongsheng

    2013-10-01

    evaporative demand has decreased worldwide during the past several decades. This trend is also noted on the Tibetan Plateau, a region that is particularly sensitive to climate change. However, patterns and trends of evapotranspiration and their relationship to drought stress on the Tibetan Plateau are complex and poorly understood. Here, we analyze spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and effective moisture (defined as the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) to reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo)) based on the modified Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ). Climate data from 80 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau were compiled for the period 1981-2010 and future climate projections were generated by a regional climate model through the 21st century. The results show regional trends towards decreasing ETo and statistically significant increases in ETa (p stress, because of generally increased effective moisture. Future regional differences are most pronounced in terms of effective moisture, which shows notable increases in the northwestern plateau and decreases in the southeastern plateau. Moreover, the reduced magnitude of effective moisture is likely to intensify in the long term, due mainly to increased evaporative demand.

  4. Development of integrated scenarios to assess future conditions of aquatic ecosystems under water scarcity in the Mediterranean - perspectives from the GLOBAQUA project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber-Garcia, Verena; Akinsete, Ebun; Gampe, David; Ker Rault, Philippe; Kok, Kasper; Koundouri, Phoebe; Luttik, Joke; Nikulin, Grigory; Pistocchi, Alberto; Souliotis, Ioannis; Ludwig, Ralf

    2017-04-01

    Water and water-related services are major components of the human wellbeing, and as such are major factors of socio-economic development; yet freshwater systems are under threat by a variety of stressors (organic and inorganic pollution, geomorphological alterations, land cover change, water abstraction, invasive species and pathogens). Water scarcity is most commonly associated with inappropriate water management and resulting river flow reductions. It has become one of the most important drivers of change in freshwater ecosystems. Conjoint occurrence of a myriad of stressors (chemical, geomorphological, biological) under water scarcity will produce novel and unfamiliar synergies and most likely very pronounced effects. Stressors are hierarchically arranged in terms of intensity, frequency and scale, and their effects can be predicted to be from transient to irreversible. Most ecosystems are simulta¬neously exposed to multiple-stress situations. Within the scope of the GLOBAQUA project the effects of multiple stressors on aquatic ecosystems in selected river basins across Europe with a focus on areas suffering from water scarcity are analyzed. In addition, management strategies are improved and adapted with the aim of inhibiting adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems and ensuring the supply with water for all purposes in the study areas also in the future. Policy relevant implications will be given to ensure a best possible status of these aquatic ecosystems also under future conditions. In this context, land use and land cover as well as the meteorological conditions can be seen as two main stressors for the quality and quantity of surface and subsurface water. These factors considerably affect the use and availability of water, especially in regions which already experience water scarcity. If the problem is not addressed correctly, negative effects on biodiversity, water supply as well as important economic consequences may arise. In Europe, many fresh water

  5. I and C success in Korea past and present projects and a view to the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ridolfo, Charles F.

    2009-01-01

    reliance', for I and C nuclear technology and currently includes a series of I and C training programs for Korean engineers. This paper discusses the critical factors that resulted in the successful deployment of advanced I and C technology for the commissioned plants; provides an overview of the I and C technology and work processes that are being implemented for the plants what will soon become operational; and provides a view of advance I and C technology, which is on the horizon and which will be the basis of future nuclear I and C applications

  6. Surface Energy and Mass Balance Model for Greenland Ice Sheet and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaojian

    The Greenland Ice Sheet contains nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of glacial ice. If the entire ice sheet completely melted, sea level would raise by nearly 7 meters. There is thus considerable interest in monitoring the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Each year, the ice sheet gains ice from snowfall and loses ice through iceberg calving and surface melting. In this thesis, we develop, validate and apply a physics based numerical model to estimate current and future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The numerical model consists of a coupled surface energy balance and englacial model that is simple enough that it can be used for long time scale model runs, but unlike previous empirical parameterizations, has a physical basis. The surface energy balance model predicts ice sheet surface temperature and melt production. The englacial model predicts the evolution of temperature and meltwater within the ice sheet. These two models can be combined with estimates of precipitation (snowfall) to estimate the mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet. We first compare model performance with in-situ observations to demonstrate that the model works well. We next evaluate how predictions are degraded when we statistically downscale global climate data. We find that a simple, nearest neighbor interpolation scheme with a lapse rate correction is able to adequately reproduce melt patterns on the Greenland Ice Sheet. These results are comparable to those obtained using empirical Positive Degree Day (PDD) methods. Having validated the model, we next drove the ice sheet model using the suite of atmospheric model runs available through the CMIP5 atmospheric model inter-comparison, which in turn built upon the RCP 8.5 (business as usual) scenarios. From this exercise we predict how much surface melt production will increase in the coming century. This results in 4-10 cm sea level equivalent, depending on the CMIP5 models. Finally, we try to bound melt water

  7. Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Zacharias

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The influence of future climate change on the occurrence of heat waves and its implications for heat wave-related mortality due to ischemic heart diseases (IHD in Germany is studied. Simulations of 19 regional climate models with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° forced by the moderate climate change scenario A1B are analyzed. Three model time periods of 30 years are evaluated, representing present climate (1971–2000, near future climate (2021–2050, and remote future climate (2069–2098. Heat waves are defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with daily mean air temperature above the 97.5th percentile of the all-season temperature distribution. Based on the model simulations, future heat waves in Germany will be significantly more frequent, longer lasting and more intense. By the end of the 21st century, the number of heat waves will be tripled compared to present climate. Additionally, the average duration of heat waves will increase by 25%, accompanied by an increase of the average temperature during heat waves by about 1 K. Regional analyses show that stronger than average climate change effects are observed particularly in the southern regions of Germany. Furthermore, we investigated climate change impacts on IHD mortality in Germany applying temperature projections from 19 regional climate models to heat wave mortality relationships identified in a previous study. Future IHD excess deaths were calculated both in the absence and presence of some acclimatization (i.e., that people are able to physiologically acclimatize to enhanced temperature levels in the future time periods by 0% and 50%, respectively. In addition to changes in heat wave frequency, we incorporated also changes in heat wave intensity and duration into the future mortality evaluations. The results indicate that by the end of the 21st century the annual number of IHD excess deaths in Germany attributable to heat waves is expected to rise by factor 2

  8. Effectiveness evaluation of the R&D projects in organizations financed by the budget expenses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakovlev, D.; Yushkov, E.; Pryakhin, A.; Bogatyreova, M.

    2017-01-01

    The issues of R&D project performance and their prospects are closely concerned with knowledge management. In the initial stages of the project development, it is the quality of the project evaluation that is crucial for the result and generation of future knowledge. Currently there does not exist any common methodology for the evaluation of new R&D financed by the budget. Suffice it to say, the assessment of scientific and technical projects (ST projects) varies greatly depending on the type of customer - government or business structures. An extensive methodological groundwork was formed with respect to orders placed by business structures. It included “an internal administrative order” by the company management for the results of STA intended for its own ST divisions. Regretfully this is not the case with state orders in the field of STA although the issue requires state regulation and official methodological support. The article is devoted to methodological assessment of scientific and technical effectiveness of studies performed at the expense of budget funds, and suggests a new concept based on the definition of the cost-effectiveness index. Thus, the study reveals it necessary to extend the previous approach to projects of different levels - micro-, meso-, macro projects. The preliminary results of the research show that there must be a common methodological approach to underpin the financing of projects under government contracts within the framework of budget financing and stock financing. This should be developed as general guidelines as well as recommendations that reflect specific sectors of the public sector, various project levels and forms of financing, as well as different stages of project life cycle.

  9. Towards improving the reliability of future regional climate projections: A bias-correction method applied to precipitation over the west coast of Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valved, A.; Barstad, I.; Sobolowski, S.

    2012-04-01

    The early winter of 2011/2012 in the city of Bergen, located on the west coast of Norway, was dominated by warm, wet and extreme weather. This might be a glimpse of future average climate conditions under continued atmospheric warming and an enhanced hydrological cycle. The extreme weather events have resulted in drainage/sewage problems, landslides, flooding property damage and even death. As the Municipality plans for the future they must contend with a growing population in a geographically complex area in addition to any effects attributable to climate change. While the scientific community is increasingly confident in the projections of large scale changes over the mid - high latitudes this confidence does not extend to the local - regional scale where the magnitude and even direction of change may be highly uncertain. Meanwhile it is precisely these scales that Municipalities such as Bergen require information if they are to plan effectively. Thus, there is a need for reliable, local climate projections, which can aid policy makers and planners in decision-making. Current state of the art regional climate models are capable of providing detailed simulations on the order of 1 or 10km. However, due to the increased computational demands of these simulations, large ensembles, such as those used for GCM experiments, are often not possible. Thus, greater detail, under these circumstances, does not necessarily correspond to greater reliability. One way to deal with this issue is to apply a statistical bias correction method where model results are fitted to observationally derived probability density functions (pdfs). In this way, a full distribution of potential changes may be generated which are constrained by known, observed data.This will result in a shifted model distribution with mean and spread that more closely follows observations. In short, the method temporarily removes the climate signals from the model run working on the different percentiles, fits the

  10. Climatic impacts on managed forests: projecting the future from the past

    OpenAIRE

    Martel, Simon; Picart, Delphine; Bosc, Alexandre; Moisy, Christophe; Lafont, Sebastien; Loustau, Denis; Picard, Olivier; Breda, Nathalie

    2015-01-01

    Forests are one of the most vulnerable ecosystem under the coming climate changeand a growing concern arise about their capacity to maintain ecosystem services suchas production of timber, fiber and energy, climate and hydrological regulations, or soil and biodiversity protection. Climate effects are significant not only at a short timescale, but also on the temporal horizon of a forest life cycle, e.g. through continuous shifts in atmospheric CO2 concentration, air temperature and precipitat...

  11. Changes in the world rivers' discharge projected from an updated high resolution dataset of current and future climate zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santini, Monia; di Paola, Arianna

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, an updated global map of the current climate zoning and of its projections, according to the Köppen-Geiger classification, is first provided. The map at high horizontal resolution (0.5° × 0.5°), representative of the current (i.e. 1961-2005) conditions, is based on the Climate Research Unit dataset holding gridded series of historical observed temperature and precipitation, while projected conditions rely on the simulated series, for the same variables, by the General Circulation Model CMCC-CM. Modeled variables were corrected for their bias and then projections of climate zoning were generated for the medium term (2006-2050) and long term (2056-2100) future periods, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Results show that Equatorial and Arid climates will spread at the expenses of Snow and Polar climates, with the Warm Temperate experiencing more moderate increase. Maps of climate zones are valuable for a wide range of studies on climate change and its impacts, especially those regarding the water cycle that is strongly regulated by the combined conditions of precipitation and temperature. As example of large scale hydrological applications, in this work we tested and implemented a spatial statistical procedure, the geographically weighted regression among climate zones' surface and mean annual discharge (MAD) at hydrographic basin level, to quantify likely changes in MAD for the main world rivers monitored through the Global Runoff Data Center database. The selected river basins are representative of more than half of both global superficial freshwater resources and world's land area. Globally, a decrease in MAD is projected both in the medium term and long term, while spatial differences highlight how some areas require efforts to avoid consequences of amplified water scarcity, while other areas call for strategies to take the opportunity from the expected increase in water availability. Also the fluctuations of trends between the

  12. Effect of bond administration on construction project delivery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oke Ayodeji Emmanuel

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Construction bond administration involves management of bond issues from inception of obtaining bond from guarantor to the point of release of contractor by the client. This process has posted a lot of challenges to construction stakeholders; it is therefore, necessary to examine the relationship between bond administration and project success. Archival data of completed bonded building projects were gathered through a pro forma developed for this purpose. Using Pearson product moment of correlation, it was revealed that the cost of securing a construction bond has a positive and significant effect on the initial and final costs of the project, while the number of days needed to secure a construction bond has no significant effect on the initial and final durations of the construction project. In order to establish the relationship between project delivery indices of cost and time and the construction bond administration variables, iteration of linear regression was adopted to arrive at the best-fit equation. Factors affecting the cost of securing construction bonds from guarantors should be identified and given adequate attention by construction stakeholders in order to minimize the effect of construction bond administration on project delivery.

  13. The Iceland Deep Drilling Project (IDDP): (I) Status and Future Plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elders, W. A.; Fridleifsson, G. O.; Bird, D. K.; Schiffman, P.; Zierenberg, R.; Reed, M. H.

    2006-12-01

    drilling. The industrial consortium will fund the >20 million USD cost of drilling and the US National Science Foundation and the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program will jointly fund the coring and sampling for scientific studies. Research by a team of approximately 50 scientists from seven countries is underway; the US investigators are reporting some initial studies at Reykjanes and Krafla in a series of accompanying papers. In the coming decade the IDDP will drill a series of deep holes in Icelandic geothermal fields, including a return to the seawater system at Reykjanes. In addition to exploring for new sources of energy, this project will provide the first opportunity worldwide to investigate the coupling of hydrothermal and magmatic processes in volcanic systems on a mid-ocean ridge. This will allow a broad array of scientific studies involving water/rock reactions at high temperatures. Supercritical fluids have greatly enhanced rates of mass transfer and chemical reaction. Active processes in such deep high-temperature reaction zones that control fluid compositions on mid-ocean ridges have never before been available for such comprehensive direct sampling and study.

  14. Collective effects and impedance issues for the SOLEIL project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flynn, G [Paris-11 Univ., 91 - Orsay (France). Lab. pour l` Utilisation du Rayonnement Electromagnetique (LURE)

    1996-08-01

    Various issues related to collective effects in the SOLEIL project are addressed. Particular attention is paid to the effects of longitudinal oscillations on undulator brilliance. Preliminary estimates of turbulent bunch lengthening and of the transverse mode coupling threshold are presented. (author)

  15. The future market for biogas from waste - Sub-Project 3; Framtida marknaden foer biogas fraan avfall - Delprojekt 3 inom projektet Perspektiv paa framtida avfallsbehandling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmstroem, David; Bisaillon, Mattias; Eriksson, Ola; Hellstroem, Hanna; Nilsson, Karolina

    2013-09-01

    The overall aim of the project was to study the conditions, opportunities and constraints for the development of the market for biogas from waste in Sweden. Seven areas of importance to the development have been identified in previous projects. The areas are: market and competition, supply and demand for waste, environmental benefits of biogas utilization, technology development, economic value of biogas, political instruments and the handling of digestate. The ambition has been to create a fact and market report for these areas for stake holders such as operators, representatives of authorities and decision makers. The project is a sub-project of 'Perspectives on future waste treatment'. The goal achievement of the project is expected to be good. During the project, there has also been considerable interest in the results, which is already used by a number of operators, both within and outside the project. Thereby, the results have a good spread, even before the project is completed.

  16. Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes in the Great Plains region of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchard, Michelle; Butman, David; Hawbaker, Todd; Li, Zhengpeng; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; McDonald, Cory; Reker, Ryan R.; Sayler, Kristi; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2011-01-01

    This assessment was conducted to fulfill the requirements of section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 and to improve understanding of carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in the Great Plains region in the central part of the United States. The assessment examined carbon storage, carbon fluxes, and other GHG fluxes (methane and nitrous oxide) in all major terrestrial ecosystems (forests, grasslands/shrublands, agricultural lands, and wetlands) and freshwater aquatic systems (rivers, streams, lakes, and impoundments) in two time periods: baseline (generally in the first half of the 2010s) and future (projections from baseline to 2050). The assessment was based on measured and observed data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and many other agencies and organizations and used remote sensing, statistical methods, and simulation models.

  17. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniels, Jeffrey I.; Chapman, Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  18. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels Jeffrey I.,Chapman Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  19. Inventing the future: Energy and the CO2 "greenhouse" effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, E. E., Jr.

    Dennis Gabor, A winner of the Nobel Prize for Physics, once remarked that man cannot predict the future, but he can invent it. The point is that while we do not know with certainty how things will turn out, our own actions can play a powerful role in shaping the future. Naturally, Gabor had in mind the power of science and technology, and the model includes that of correction or feedback. It is an important: Man does not have the gift of prophecy. Any manager or government planner would err seriously by masterminding a plan based unalterably on some vision of the future, without provision for mid-course correction. It is also a comforting thought. With man's notorious inability to create reliable predictions about such matters as elections, stock markets, energy supply and demand, and, of course, the weather, it is a great consolation to feel that we can still retain some control of the future.

  20. Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by multi-physics and multi-SST ensemble experiments using the 60-km-mesh MRI-AGCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murakami, Hiroyuki [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)/Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States); Mizuta, Ryo; Shindo, Eiki [Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Climate Research Department, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

    2012-11-15

    Uncertainties in projected future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are investigated using future (2075-2099) ensemble projections of global warming under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Twelve ensemble experiments are performed using three different cumulus convection schemes and four different assumptions for prescribed future sea surface temperatures (SSTs). All ensemble experiments consistently project significant reductions in global and hemispheric TC genesis numbers as well as reductions in TC frequency of occurrence (TCF) and TC genesis frequency (TGF) in the western North Pacific, South Indian Ocean, and South Pacific Ocean. TCF and TGF are projected to increase over the central Pacific which is consistent with the findings of Li et al. (2010). Inter-experimental variations of projected future changes in TGF and TC genesis number are caused mainly by differences in large-scale dynamical parameters and SST anomalies. Thermodynamic parameters are of secondary importance for variations in TGF and TC genesis number. These results imply that differences in SST spatial patterns can cause substantial variations and uncertainties in projected future changes of TGF and TC numbers at ocean-basin scales. (orig.)

  1. Space Weather Effects on Current and Future Electric Power Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz, D.; Dutta, O.; Tandoi, C.; Brandauer, W.; Mohamed, A.; Damas, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    This work addresses the effects of Geomagnetic Disturbances (GMDs) on the present bulk power system as well as the future smart grid, and discusses the mitigation of these geomagnetic impacts, so as to reduce the vulnerabilities of the electric power network to large space weather events. Solar storm characterized by electromagnetic radiation generates geo-electric fields that result in the flow of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) through the transmission lines, followed by transformers and the ground. As the ground conductivity and the power network topology significantly vary with the region, it becomes imperative to estimate of the magnitude of GICs for different places. In this paper, the magnitude of GIC has been calculated for New York State (NYS) with the help of extensive modelling of the whole NYS electricity transmission network using real data. Although GIC affects only high voltage levels, e.g. above 300 kV, the presence of coastline in NYS makes the low voltage transmission lines also susceptible to GIC. Besides this, the encroachment of technologies pertaining to smart grid implementation, such as Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs), Microgrids, Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS), and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) have been analyzed for GMD impacts. Inaccurate PMU results due to scintillation of GPS signals that are affected by electromagnetic interference of solar storm, presence of renewable energy resources in coastal areas that are more vulnerable to GMD, the ability of FACTS devices to either block or pave new path for GICs and so on, shed some light on impacts of GMD on smart grid technologies.

  2. The Manhattan Project and its Effects on American Women Scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Samuel

    2008-04-01

    There have been many detailed historical accounts of the Manhattan Project, but few have recognized the technical role women scientists and engineers crucially played in the Project's success. Despite their absence from these prominent accounts, recent studies have revealed that, in fact, women participated in every non-combat operation associated with the Manhattan Project. With such extensive participation of women and such a former lack of historical attention upon them, little analysis has been done on how the Manhattan Project might have influenced the prospectus of women scientists after the war. This talk has two aims: 1) to recount some of the technical and scientific contributions of women to the Manhattan Project, and 2) to examine what effects these contributions had on the women's careers as scientists. In other words, I intend offer a preliminary explanation of the extent to which the Manhattan Project acted both as a boon and as a detriment to American women scientists. And finally, I will address what this historical analysis could imply about the effects of current efforts to recruit women into science.

  3. Radiation and temperature effects on electronic components investigated under the CSTI high capacity power project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwarze, G.E.; Niedra, J.M.; Frasca, A.J.; Wieserman, W.R.

    1993-01-01

    The effects of nuclear radiation and high temperature environments must be fully known and understood for the electronic components and materials used in both the Power Conditioning and Control subsystem and the reactor Instrumentation and Control subsystem of future high capacity nuclear space power systems. This knowledge is required by the designer of these subsystems in order to develop highly reliable, long-life power systems for future NASA missions. A review and summary of the experimental results obtained for the electronic components and materials investigated under the power management element of the CSTI high capacity power project will be presented in this paper: (1) Neutron, gamma ray, and temperature effects on power semiconductor switches, (2) Temperature and frequency effects on soft magnetic materials; and (3) Temperature effects on rare-earth permanent magnets

  4. Radiation and temperature effects on electronic components investigated under the CSTI High Capacity Power Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shwarze, G.E.; Wieserman, W.R.

    1994-01-01

    The effects of nuclear radiation and high temperature environments must be fully known and understood for the electronic components and materials used in both the Power Conditioning and Control subsystem and the reactor Instrumentation and Control subsystem of future high capacity nuclear space power systems. This knowledge is required by the designer of these subsystems in order to develop highly reliable, long-life power systems for future NASA missions. A review and summary of the experimental results obtained for the electronic components and materials investigated under the power management element of the CSTI high capacity power project will be presented in this paper: (1) Neutron, gamma ray, and temperature effects on power semiconductor switches, (2) Temperature and frequency effects on soft magnetic materials; and (3) Temperature effects on rare earth permanent magnets

  5. Projections of the Population of the Republic of Croatia to the Year 2031: Can Migration Alleviate Future Negative Trends?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Snježana Mrđen

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents middle duration projections of Croatia’s population, until the year 2031, determined via the cohort-component method. It outlines eight variants derived from supposed hypotheses in regard to changing birth, migration and death rates. Differences in the variants are exclusively differences in birth and migration rates, since the assumptions in regard to the death rates are the same in all the variants. The corrected estimate of the population on January 1st 2001, according to the most recent census, served as the base population. The results of the projections indicate that in the next thirty years the overall and the natural population reduction of Croatia will continue, and at the end of the period (2031 the population will be demographically older than at the start (2001. The variants differ only in relation to the intensity (i.e. swiftness of the aging process, yet the direction remains the same. Thus, in the variant that assumes a positive migration balance, the process of aging would be somewhat slower. The only variant that assumes a constant proportion of young people (on the 2001 level, gradual demographic growth and at the end of the period a larger population than in 2001, is the variant based on a high birth rate and positive migration. The impact of migration is very important for future demographic processes. Namely, in the short run, migration cannot change the direction of demographic processes, but it can lessen already existing negative trends.

  6. NET.EXCEL - a European thematic network for suggesting and prioritising future joint R and D projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svemar, C.; Brewitz, W.

    2004-01-01

    The NET.EXCEL project concerns the forming of a network of European end users for analysing the present status and future needs in research, technical development and demonstration (RTD) for the disposal of highly radioactive waste in the three classical rock media: salt, clay/clay sediments and crystalline rock. The aim is to generate values additional to that gained by the individual participants: Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering AB (Sweden), Posiva Oy (Finland), Empresa Nacional de Residuos Radioactivos SA (Spain), Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (Germany), Agence nationale pour la gestion des dechets radioactifs (France), Nationale Genossenschaft fuer die Lagerung radioaktiver Abfaelle (Swizerland), Organisme National des Dechets Radioactifs et des Matieres Fissiles Enrichies (Belgium) and United Kingdom Nirex Limited (UK). The practical way to carry out the needed RTD-activities and the principles behind the process to establish priorities for the necessary RTD-work is quite similar among the participants. Common ground has been analysed for the role/responsibilities of the participating organisations, for the establishment of priorities for the RTD work and for the modus operandi of the organisations to carry out the RTD. The issue of prioritising the potential RTD activities and the factors taken into account by the participating organisations have been summarised and analysed with respect to the common denominator in the project. (orig.)

  7. How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etkind, S N; Bone, A E; Gomes, B; Lovell, N; Evans, C J; Higginson, I J; Murtagh, F E M

    2017-05-18

    Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries. We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure. By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need. If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with

  8. Performance Evaluation of Public-Private Partnership Projects from the Perspective of Efficiency, Economic, Effectiveness, and Equity: A Study of Residential Renovation Projects in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuhui Cong

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The performance evaluation index system was established on the basis of 4E (Efficiency, Economic, Effectiveness, Equity theory to improve performance evaluation of Public-Private Partnership Projects for Residential Renovation (4P2R. Moreover, the index weighting model was demonstrated based on Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA. Finally, the cloud model was used for performance evaluation, through the cloud uncertainty reasoning to determine the quantitative performance evaluation index value, the positive reverse cloud to calculate the qualitative performance evaluation index value, and the normal cloud to measure the project performance. The proof-of-concept application shows that the performance evaluation index system and evaluation model can better identify the deficiencies in the project, and provide targeted improvement measures for similar projects in the future.

  9. The ATLAS project: The effects of a constructionist digital laboratory project on undergraduate laboratory performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoepe, Todd C; Cavedon, Dana K; Derian, Joseph M; Levy, Celine S; Morales, Amy

    2015-01-01

    Anatomical education is a dynamic field where developments in the implementation of constructive, situated-learning show promise in improving student achievement. The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness of an individualized, technology heavy project in promoting student performance in a combined anatomy and physiology laboratory course. Mixed-methods research was used to compare two cohorts of anatomy laboratories separated by the adoption of a new laboratory atlas project, which were defined as preceding (PRE) and following the adoption of the Anatomical Teaching and Learning Assessment Study (ATLAS; POST). The ATLAS project required the creation of a student-generated, photographic atlas via acquisition of specimen images taken with tablet technology and digital microscope cameras throughout the semester. Images were transferred to laptops, digitally labeled and photo edited weekly, and compiled into a digital book using Internet publishing freeware for final project submission. An analysis of covariance confirmed that student final examination scores were improved (P project (PRE, n = 75; POST, n = 90; means ± SE; 74.9 ± 0.9 versus 78.1 ± 0.8, respectively) after controlling for cumulative student grade point average. Analysis of questionnaires collected (n = 68) from the post group suggested students identified with atlas objectives, appreciated the comprehensive value in final examination preparation, and the constructionism involved, but recommended alterations in assignment logistics and the format of the final version. Constructionist, comprehensive term-projects utilizing student-preferred technologies could be used to improve performance toward student learning outcomes. © 2014 American Association of Anatomists.

  10. Response of net ecosystem CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration of boreal forest ecosystems to projected future climate changes: results of a modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olchev, Alexander; Kurbatova, Julia

    2014-05-01

    ET. Reduction of available nitrogen in spruce needles by 50-60% can almost completely neutralize the effect of the increase in the photosynthesis rate due to the projected future doubling of the CO2 concentration in the air and increase in temperature by the end of the 21st century. The predicted relatively small increase in ET by the end of the 21st century not exceeding 10% versus the projected increase in precipitation (about 20%) may cause a certain increase in soil moisture and surface runoff in the study area, as well as a somewhat decreased frequency of soil droughts. This study was supported by grants of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR 14-04-01568-a and 14-05-00797).

  11. The Effectiveness of Project Based Learning in Trigonometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhana, M. T. C.; Mardiyana, M.; Pramudya, I.

    2017-09-01

    This research aimed to explore the effectiveness of Project-Based Learning (PjBL) with scientific approach viewed from interpersonal intelligence toward students’ achievement learning in mathematics. This research employed quasi experimental research. The subjects of this research were grade X MIPA students in Sleman Yogyakarta. The result of the research showed that project-based learning model is more effective to generate students’ mathematics learning achievement that classical model with scientific approach. This is because in PjBL model students are more able to think actively and creatively. Students are faced with a pleasant atmosphere to solve a problem in everyday life. The use of project-based learning model is expected to be the choice of teachers to improve mathematics education.

  12. State of the Art of helium heat exchanger development for future HTR-projects - HTR2008-58146

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esch, M.; Juergens, B.; Hurtado, A.; Knoche, D.; Tietsch, W.

    2008-01-01

    In Germany two HTR nuclear power plants had been built and operated, the AVR-15 and the THTR-300. Also various projects for different purposes in a large power range had been developed, The AVR-15, an experimental reactor with a power output of 15 MWel was operated for more than 20 years with excellent results. The THTR-300 was designed as a prototype demonstration plant with 300 MWel and should be the technological basis for the entire future reactor line. The THTR-300 was prematurely shut down and decommissioned because of political reasons. But because of the accompanying comprehensive R and D program and the operation time of about 5 years, the technology was proved and essential operational results were gained. The AVR steam generator was installed above the reactor core. The six THTR heat exchangers were arranged circularly around the reactor core, Both heat exchanger systems have been operated successfully and furthermore acted as a residual heat removal system. The technology knowledge and experience gained on these existing HTR plants is still available at Westinghouse Electric Germany GmbH since Westinghouse is one of the legal successors of the former German HTR companies. As a follow-up project of THTR, the HTR-500 was developed and designed up to the manufacturing stage. For this plant additionally to the 8 steam generators, two residual heat removal heat exchangers were foreseen. These were to be installed in a ring around the reactor core. All these HTRs were designed for the generation of electricity using a steam cycle. Extensive research work has also been done for advanced applications of HTR technology e.g. using a direct cycle within the HHT project or generating process heat within the framework of the PNP project, Because of the critical attitude of the German government to the nuclear power in the past 20 years in Germany there was only a very limited interest in the further development of the HTR technology. As a consequence of the German

  13. A method to encapsulate model structural uncertainty in ensemble projections of future climate: EPIC v1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lewis

    2017-12-01

    magnitude more computationally efficient than running multiple GCM or RCM simulations. Such a large ensemble of projections permits a description of a probability density function (PDF of future climate states rather than a small number of individual story lines within that PDF, which may not be representative of the PDF as a whole; the EPIC method largely corrects for such potential sampling biases. The method is useful for providing projections of changes in climate to users wishing to investigate the impacts and implications of climate change in a probabilistic way. A web-based tool, using the EPIC method to provide probabilistic projections of changes in daily maximum and minimum temperatures for New Zealand, has been developed and is described in this paper.

  14. Climate change and future wildfire in the western USA: what model projections do and don't tell us

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littell, J. S.; McKenzie, D.; Cushman, S. A.; Wan, H. Y.

    2017-12-01

    We developed statistical climate-fire models describing area burned for 70 ecosections in the western U.S. Historically, these ecosections collectively represent a gradient of climate-fire relationships from purely fuel limited (characterized by antecedent positive water balance anomalies and/or negative energy balance anomalies) to purely flammability limited (characterized by antecedent negative water balance anomalies and/or positive energy balance anomalies). Sixty-eight ecosection linear models included significant climate predictors, and 56 ecosections satisfied regression diagnostics, yielding acceptable climate-fire models. There is considerable diversity in seasonality, dominant variables, and prevalence of lagged climatic terms in the climate-fire regression models, indicating variation in mechanisms of climate-fire linkages across ecosystems. This diversity, however, is not random - there is a clear pattern in the fuzzy set membership of the relative dominance of regression predictor variables. This pattern defines a fuel-flammability gradient of limitations, with a tendency toward warm season drought on the flammability end and a tendency toward antecedent moisture on the fuel end. Projected area burned under a multi-model composite future climate scenarios varies, with increasing area burned in 41 ecosections in the West by 2030-2059 (median 132% among 10 purely flammability limited ecosections, median 240% among 25 flammability limited systems with a fuel limitation component, and median 43% among 6 systems with equal control) but decreasing (median -119% among 13 fuel limited systems with a flammability component). For the period 2070-2099, the projected area burned increases much more in the flammability (769%) and flammability-fuel hybrid (442%) systems than those with joint control (139%), and continues to decrease (-178%) in fuel-flammability hybrid systems. Filtering the projected results with fire rotation limits projections biased high by the

  15. Effective Strategies for Teaching Evolution: The Primary Evolution Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatcher, Chris

    2015-01-01

    When Chris Hatcher joined the Primary Evolution Project team at the University of Reading, his goal was to find effective strategies to teach evolution in a way that keeps children engaged and enthused. Hatcher has collaborated with colleagues at the University's Institute of Education to break the evolution unit down into distinct topics and…

  16. Effect of project work on secondary school students science process ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study investigated the effect of students' project work on secondary school science process skills acquisition in Biology. The study was carried out in Owerri North Local Government Area of Imo State. Three research questions guided the study and three null hypotheses were postulated and tested at 0.05 level of ...

  17. Development as an effective management system construction and investment projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beloborodov Roman S.

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the material of the application of the conception «Development» as the effective methodology of the investment-construction project management within the framework the systems approach. Theoretical principles of the application of this conception are generalized and systematized based on the example of the creation of the low habitable complex.

  18. Cost-effectiveness of particle therapy: Current evidence and future needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pijls-Johannesma, Madelon; Pommier, Pascal; Lievens, Yolande

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: Questions are being raised regarding the cost of particle therapy (PT), and with them criticism that PT is too expensive to allow the expected gain in effectiveness. This paper aims to get more insight in the cost and cost-effectiveness of particle therapy and to discuss a future strategy that allows for critical assessment of this health technology. Material and methods: A systematic literature review based on an earlier published comprehensive review was performed and updated until June 1st 2008. Besides, current business plans of PT projects were examined. Additionally, results retrieved from a cost-simulation tool developed under auspice of the ENLIGHT were discussed. Results: The current literature on cost-effectiveness of PT is scarce, non-comparable, and largely not performed according to standard health technology assessment criteria. Besides, different perspectives for cost evaluations have been used, making it difficult to compare and to determine the relative impact in terms of costs for this new treatment modality. Conclusions: Evidence on the cost-effectiveness of PT is scarce. Adequate reimbursement is necessary to support such innovative yet costly treatments. For now, model-based economic evaluations performed at least from a health care perspective may help us to gain evidence-based insight into cost-effectiveness

  19. The Effect of Future Ambient Air Pollution on Human Premature Mortality to 2100 Using Output from the ACCMIP Model Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; hide

    2016-01-01

    Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths per year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382000 (121000 to 728000) deaths per year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths per year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM(sub 2.5) concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to

  20. The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. Silva

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5 is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs, the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry–climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths year−1, likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382 000 (121 000 to 728 000 deaths year−1 in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths year−1 in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios

  1. The effects of Project ALERT one year past curriculum completion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringwalt, Chris L; Clark, Heddy Kovach; Hanley, Sean; Shamblen, Stephen R; Flewelling, Robert L

    2010-06-01

    School-based drug prevention curricula constitute the nation's most prevalent strategy to prevent adolescent drug use. We evaluated the effects of one such curriculum, Project ALERT, on adolescent substance use. In particular, we sought to determine if a single effect on 30-day alcohol use, noted shortly following the completion of the 2-year program, could be detected 1 year later. We also looked for delayed effects on other outcomes of interest, namely lifetime alcohol use, and 30-day and lifetime use of cigarettes, marijuana, and inhalants. We employed a randomized controlled trial that used school as the unit of assignment. Thirty-four schools with grades 6-8 from 11 states completed the study. Seventy-one Project ALERT instructors taught 11 core lessons to sixth graders and 3 booster lessons to seventh graders. Students were assessed prior to the onset of the intervention, as sixth graders, after the completion of the 2-year curriculum, as seventh graders, and again 1 year later as eighth graders. This paper examines data from the pretest and final posttest. Using hierarchical nonlinear modeling, we found that our earlier effect on 30-day alcohol use did not persist. Further, we continued to find no effects for lifetime alcohol use and both the lifetime and 30-day use of cigarettes, marijuana, and inhalants. Our findings do not support the long-term effectiveness of Project ALERT, when delivered to sixth graders.

  2. The Future of Utility Customer-Funded Energy Efficiency Programs in the United States: Projected Spending and Savings to 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Goldman, Charles [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hoffman, Ian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Billingsley, Megan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-09-11

    We develop projections of future spending on, and savings from, energy efficiency programs funded by electric and gas utility customers in the United States, under three scenarios through 2025. Our analysis, which updates a previous LBNL study, relies on detailed bottom-up modeling of current state energy efficiency policies, regulatory decisions, and demand-side management and utility resource plans. The three scenarios are intended to represent a range of potential outcomes under the current policy environment (i.e., without considering possible major new policy developments). By 2025, spending on electric and gas efficiency programs (excluding load management programs) is projected to double from 2010 levels to $9.5 billion in the medium case, compared to $15.6 billion in the high case and $6.5 billion in the low case. Compliance with statewide legislative or regulatory savings or spending targets is the primary driver for the increase in electric program spending through 2025, though a significant share of the increase is also driven by utility DSM planning activity and integrated resource planning. Our analysis suggests that electric efficiency program spending may approach a more even geographic distribution over time in terms of absolute dollars spent, with the Northeastern and Western states declining from over 70% of total U.S. spending in 2010 to slightly more than 50% in 2025, with the South and Midwest splitting the remainder roughly evenly. Under our medium case scenario, annual incremental savings from customer-funded electric energy efficiency programs increase from 18.4 TWh in 2010 in the U.S. (which is about 0.5% of electric utility retail sales) to 28.8 TWh in 2025 (0.8% of retail sales). These savings would offset the majority of load growth in the Energy Information Administration’s most recent reference case forecast, given specific assumptions about the extent to which future energy efficiency program savings are captured in that forecast

  3. The future of utility customer-funded energy efficiency programs in the USA. Projected spending and savings to 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbose, G.L.; Goldman, C.A.; Hoffman, I.M.; Billingsley, M. [Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, One Cyclotron Road, MS 90R4000, Berkeley, CA 94720-8136 (United States)

    2013-08-15

    We develop projections of future spending on, and savings from, energy efficiency programs funded by electric and gas utility customers in the USA, under three scenarios through 2025. Our analysis, which updates a previous LBNL study, relies on detailed bottom-up modeling of current state energy efficiency policies, regulatory decisions, and demand-side management and utility resource plans. The three scenarios are intended to represent a range of potential outcomes under the current policy environment (i.e., without considering possible major new policy developments). Key findings from the analysis are as follows: (1) By 2025, spending on electric and gas efficiency programs (excluding load management programs) is projected to double from 2010 levels to USD 9.5 billion in the medium case, compared to USD 15.6 billion in the high case and USD 6.5 billion in the low case; (2) Compliance with statewide legislative or regulatory savings or spending targets is the primary driver for the increase in electric program spending through 2025, though a significant share of the increase is also driven by utility DSM planning activity and integrated resource planning; (3) Our analysis suggests that electric efficiency program spending may approach a more even geographic distribution over time in terms of absolute dollars spent, with the Northeastern and Western states declining from over 70 % of total USA spending in 2010 to slightly more than 50 % in 2025, and the South and Midwest splitting the remainder roughly evenly; (4) Under our medium case scenario, annual incremental savings from customer-funded electric energy efficiency programs increase from 18.4 TWh in 2010 in the USA (which is about 0.5 % of electric utility retail sales) to 28.8 TWh in 2025 (0.8 % of retail sales); (5) These savings would offset the majority of load growth in the Energy Information Administration's most recent reference case forecast, given specific assumptions about the extent to which future

  4. Characterizing recent and projecting future potential patterns of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the Southern Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Lu; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Chen, Yanlei; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Gong, Peng

    2014-01-01

    The recent widespread mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak in the Southern Rocky Mountains presents an opportunity to investigate the relative influence of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical drivers that have shaped the spatiotemporal patterns of the outbreak. The aim of this study was to quantify the landscape-level drivers that explained the dynamic patterns of MPB mortality, and simulate areas with future potential MPB mortality under projected climate-change scenarios in Grand County, Colorado, USA. The outbreak patterns of MPB were characterized by analysis of a decade-long Landsat time-series stack, aided by automatic attribution of change detected by the Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery algorithm (LandTrendr). The annual area of new MPB mortality was then related to a suite of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical predictor variables under a general linear model (GLM) framework. Data from years 2001–2005 were used to train the model and data from years 2006–2011 were retained for validation. After stepwise removal of non-significant predictors, the remaining predictors in the GLM indicated that neighborhood mortality, winter mean temperature anomaly, and residential housing density were positively associated with MPB mortality, whereas summer precipitation was negatively related. The final model had an average area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic plot value of 0.72 in predicting the annual area of new mortality for the independent validation years, and the mean deviation from the base maps in the MPB mortality areal estimates was around 5%. The extent of MPB mortality will likely expand under two climate-change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) in Grand County, which implies that the impacts of MPB outbreaks on vegetation composition and structure, and ecosystem functioning are likely to increase in the future.

  5. The PixFEL project: development of advanced X-ray pixel detectors for application at future FEL facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rizzo, G.; Batignani, G.; Bettarini, S.; Casarosa, G.; Forti, F.; Paladino, A.; Paoloni, E.; Comotti, D.; Grassi, M.; Lodola, L.; Malcovati, P.; Ratti, L.; Vacchi, C.; Fabris, L.; Manghisoni, M.; Re, V.; Traversi, G.; Morsani, F.; Betta, G.-F. Dalla; Pancheri, L.

    2015-01-01

    The PixFEL project aims to develop an advanced X-ray camera for imaging suited for the demanding requirements of next generation free electron laser (FEL) facilities. New technologies can be deployed to boost the performance of imaging detectors as well as future pixel devices for tracking. In the first phase of the PixFEL project, approved by the INFN, the focus will be on the development of the microelectronic building blocks, carried out with a 65 nm CMOS technology, implementing a low noise analog front-end channel with high dynamic range and compression features, a low power ADC and high density memory. At the same time PixFEL will investigate and implement some of the enabling technologies to assembly a seamless large area X-ray camera composed by a matrix of multilayer four-side buttable tiles. A pixel matrix with active edge will be developed to minimize the dead area of the sensor layer. Vertical interconnection of two CMOS tiers will be explored to build a four-side buttable readout chip with small pixel pitch and all the on-board required functionalities. The ambitious target requirements of the new pixel device are: single photon resolution, 1 to 10 4 photons @ 1 keV to 10 keV input dynamic range, 10-bit analog to digital conversion up to 5 MHz, 1 kevent in-pixel memory and 100 μm pixel pitch. The long term goal of PixFEL will be the development of a versatile X-ray camera to be operated either in burst mode (European XFEL), or in continuous mode to cope with the high frame rates foreseen for the upgrade phase of the LCLS-II at SLAC

  6. Flood effects on an Alaskan stream restoration project: the value of long-term monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Densmore, Roseann V.; Karle, Kenneth F.

    2009-01-01

    On a nationwide basis, few stream restoration projects have long-term programs in place to monitor the effects of floods on channel and floodplain configuration and floodplain vegetation, but long-term and event-based monitoring is required to measure the effects of these stochastic events and to use the knowledge for adaptive management and the design of future projects. This paper describes a long-term monitoring effort (15 years) on a stream restoration project in Glen Creek in Denali National Park and Preserve in Alaska. The stream channel and floodplain of Glen Creek had been severely degraded over a period of 80 years by placer mining for gold, which left many reaches with unstable and incised streambeds without functioning vegetated floodplains. The objectives of the original project, initiated in 1991, were to develop and test methods for the hydraulic design of channel and floodplain morphology and for floodplain stabilization and riparian habitat recovery, and to conduct research and monitoring to provide information for future projects in similar degraded watersheds. Monitoring methods included surveyed stream cross-sections, vegetation plots, and aerial, ground, and satellite photos. In this paper we address the immediate and outlying effects of a 25-year flood on the stream and floodplain geometry and riparian vegetation. The long-term monitoring revealed that significant channel widening occurred following the flood, likely caused by excessive upstream sediment loading and the fairly slow development of floodplain vegetation in this climate. Our results illustrated design flaws, particularly in regard to identification and analysis of sediment sources and the dominant processes of channel adjustment.

  7. Effects of recent energy system changes on CO2 projections for the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenox, Carol S; Loughlin, Daniel H

    2017-09-21

    Recent projections of future United States carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions are considerably lower than projections made just a decade ago. A myriad of factors have contributed to lower forecasts, including reductions in end-use energy service demands, improvements in energy efficiency, and technological innovations. Policies that have encouraged these changes include renewable portfolio standards, corporate vehicle efficiency standards, smart growth initiatives, revisions to building codes, and air and climate regulations. Understanding the effects of these and other factors can be advantageous as society evaluates opportunities for achieving additional CO 2 reductions. Energy system models provide a means to develop such insights. In this analysis, the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) model was applied to estimate the relative effects of various energy system changes that have happened since the year 2005 on CO 2 projections for the year 2025. The results indicate that transformations in the transportation and buildings sectors have played major roles in lowering projections. Particularly influential changes include improved vehicle efficiencies, reductions in projected travel demand, reductions in miscellaneous commercial electricity loads, and higher efficiency lighting. Electric sector changes have also contributed significantly to the lowered forecasts, driven by demand reductions, renewable portfolio standards, and air quality regulations.

  8. Relationships among Team Trust, Team Cohesion, Team Satisfaction and Project Team Effectiveness as Perceived by Project Managers in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Han-Ping Fung

    2014-01-01

    Today, more and more project teams are formed to achieve organizational objectives as organizations generally recognized the importance and benefits of project teams. There is a compelling reason to study what are the team outcome factors that can predict project team effectiveness as it is unclear whether these team outcome factors can yield the same result in project setting whereby there is resource and time constraint compare to normal work teams which are ongoing and operational in natur...

  9. Upstream effects of dams on alluvial channels: state-of-the-art and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liro, Maciej

    2017-04-01

    More than 50,000 large dams (with the height above 15 m) operate all over the world and, thus, they significantly disturb water and sediment transport in river systems. These disturbances are recognized as one of the most important factors shaping river morphology in the Anthropocene. Downstream effects of dams have been well documented in numerous case studies and supported by predictions from existing models. In contrast, little is known on the upstream effects of dams on alluvial channels. This review highlights the lack of studies on sedimentological, hydromorphological and biogeomorphological adjustments of alluvial rivers in the base-level raised zones of backwater upstream of dam reservoirs where water level fluctuations occur. Up to date, it has been documented that backwater effects may facilitate fine and coarse sediment deposition, increase groundwater level, provide higher and more frequent channel and floodplain inundation and lead to significant morphological changes. But there have been no studies quantifying short- and long-term consequences of these disturbances for the hydromorphological and biogeomorphological feedbacks that control development of alluvial channels. Some recent studies carried out on gravel-bed and fine-grained bed rivers show that the above mentioned disturbances facilitate vegetation expansion on exposed channel sediments and floodplain influencing river morphology, which suggests that backwater area of alluvial rivers may be treated as the hotspot of bio-geomorphological changes in a fluvial system. To set the sta