Tools for Closure Project and Contract Management: Development of the Rocky Flats Integrated Closure Project Baseline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gelles, C. M.; Sheppard, F. R.

2002-01-01

This paper details the development of the Rocky Flats Integrated Closure Project Baseline - an innovative project management effort undertaken to ensure proactive management of the Rocky Flats Closure Contract in support of the Department's goal for achieving the safe closure of the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in December 2006. The accelerated closure of RFETS is one of the most prominent projects within the Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management program. As the first major former weapons plant to be remediated and closed, it is a first-of-kind effort requiring the resolution of multiple complex technical and institutional challenges. Most significantly, the closure of RFETS is dependent upon the shipment of all special nuclear material and wastes to other DOE sites. The Department is actively working to strengthen project management across programs, and there is increasing external interest in this progress. The development of the Rocky Flats Integrated Closure Project Baseline represents a groundbreaking and cooperative effort to formalize the management of such a complex project across multiple sites and organizations. It is original in both scope and process, however it provides a useful precedent for the other ongoing project management efforts within the Environmental Management program

FutureGen Project Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cabe, Jim; Elliott, Mike

2010-09-30

This report summarizes the comprehensive siting, permitting, engineering, design, and costing activities completed by the FutureGen Industrial Alliance, the Department of Energy, and associated supporting subcontractors to develop a first of a kind near zero emissions integrated gasification combined cycle power plant and carbon capture and storage project (IGCC-CCS). With the goal to design, build, and reliably operate the first IGCC-CCS facility, FutureGen would have been the lowest emitting pulverized coal power plant in the world, while providing a timely and relevant basis for coal combustion power plants deploying carbon capture in the future. The content of this report summarizes key findings and results of applicable project evaluations; modeling, design, and engineering assessments; cost estimate reports; and schedule and risk mitigation from initiation of the FutureGen project through final flow sheet analyses including capital and operating reports completed under DOE award DE-FE0000587. This project report necessarily builds upon previously completed siting, design, and development work executed under DOE award DE-FC26- 06NT4207 which included the siting process; environmental permitting, compliance, and mitigation under the National Environmental Policy Act; and development of conceptual and design basis documentation for the FutureGen plant. For completeness, the report includes as attachments the siting and design basis documents, as well as the source documentation for the following: • Site evaluation and selection process and environmental characterization • Underground Injection Control (UIC) Permit Application including well design and subsurface modeling • FutureGen IGCC-CCS Design Basis Document • Process evaluations and technology selection via Illinois Clean Coal Review Board Technical Report • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance for slurry-fed gasifier configuration • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance

Richland Environmental Restoration Project Baseline Multi Year Work Plan Volume 1 Richland Environmental Restoration Project Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wintczak, T.M.

2001-01-01

The purpose of this project specification is to provide an overall scoping and document for the Environmental Restoration project, and to provide a link between the overall Hanford Site scope and the ER project. The purpose of this project specification is to provide an overall scoping document for the ER Project, and to provide a link between the overall Hanford Site scope and the ER Project. Additionally, this specification provides an integrated and consolidated source of information for the Richland ER Project. It identifies the ER Project vision, mission, and goals, as well as the operational history of the Hanford Site, along with environmental setting and hazards. This ER Project Specification is part of the overall ER Project baseline

Baseline projections of transportation energy consumption by mode: 1981 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Millar, M; Bunch, J; Vyas, A; Kaplan, M; Knorr, R; Mendiratta, V; Saricks, C

1982-04-01

A comprehensive set of activity and energy-demand projections for each of the major transportation modes and submodes is presented. Projections are developed for a business-as-usual scenario, which provides a benchmark for assessing the effects of potential conservation strategies. This baseline scenario assumes a continuation of present trends, including fuel-efficiency improvements likely to result from current efforts of vehicle manufacturers. Because of anticipated changes in fuel efficiency, fuel price, modal shifts, and a lower-than-historic rate of economic growth, projected growth rates in transportation activity and energy consumption depart from historic patterns. The text discusses the factors responsible for this departure, documents the assumptions and methodologies used to develop the modal projections, and compares the projections with other efforts.

Project Management 2027; The Future of Project Management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Drs. A.J.G. Silvius

2008-01-01

This paper describes a study into the expected development of the competences op the project manager in the year 2027. The study was performed amongst the members of IPMA-Netherlands during the summer of 2007. In the study the 46 competences of the International Competence Baseline 3 (ICB 3) were

Wind power projects in the CDM: Methodologies and tools for baselines, carbon financing and sustainability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ringius, L.; Grohnheit, P.E.; Nielsen, L.H.; Olivier, A.L.; Painuly, J.; Villavicencio, A.

2002-12-01

The report is intended to be a guidance document for project developers, investors, lenders, and CDM host countries involved in wind power projects in the CDM. The report explores in particular those issues that are important in CDM project assessment and development - that is, baseline development, carbon financing, and environmental sustainability. It does not deal in detail with those issues that are routinely covered in a standard wind power project assessment. The report tests, compares, and recommends methodologies for and approaches to baseline development. To present the application and implications of the various methodologies and approaches in a concrete context, Africa's largest wind farm-namely the 60 MW wind farm located in Zafarana, Egypt- is examined as a hypothetical CDM wind power project The report shows that for the present case example there is a difference of about 25% between the lowest (0.5496 tCO2/MWh) and the highest emission rate (0.6868 tCO 2 /MWh) estimated in accordance with these three standardized approaches to baseline development according to the Marrakesh Accord. This difference in emission factors comes about partly as a result of including hydroelectric power in the baseline scenario. Hydroelectric resources constitute around 21% of the generation capacity in Egypt, and, if excluding hydropower, the difference between the lowest and the highest baseline is reduced to 18%. Furthermore, since the two variations of the 'historical' baseline option examined result in the highest and the lowest baselines, by disregarding this baseline option altogether the difference between the lowest and the highest is reduced to 16%. The ES3-model, which the Systems Analysis Department at Risoe National Laboratory has developed, makes it possible for this report to explore the project-specific approach to baseline development in some detail. Based on quite disaggregated data on the Egyptian electricity system, including the wind power production

Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

2011-01-01

Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

SRC-I Project Baseline. [SRC-I demonstration project near Owensboro, Kentucky

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1982-03-01

The Process Design Criteria Specification forms the basis for process design for the 6000-TPSD SRC-I Demonstration Plant. It sets forth: basic engineering data, e.g., type and size of plant, feedstocks, product specifications, and atmospheric emission and waste disposal limits; utility conditions; equipment design criteria and sparing philosophy; and estimating criteria for economic considerations. Previously the formal ICRC Document No. 0001-01-002 has been submitted to DOE and revised, as necessary, to be consistent with the SRC-I Project Baseline. Revision 6, dated 19 March 1982, 51 pages, was forwarded to DOE on 19 March 1982.

THE US LONG BASELINE NEUTRINO EXPERIMENT STUDY.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

BISHAI,M.

2007-08-06

The US Long Baseline Neutrino Experiment Study was commissioned jointly by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL)and Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL) to investigate the potential for future U.S. based long baseline neutrino oscillation experiments using MW class conventional neutrino beams that can be produced at FNAL. The experimental baselines are based on two possible detector locations: (1) off-axis to the existing FNAL NuMI beamline at baselines of 700 to 810 km and (2) NSF's proposed future Deep Underground Science and Engineering Laboratory (DUSEL) at baselines greater than 1000km. Two detector technologies are considered: a megaton class Water Cherenkov detector deployed deep underground at a DUSEL site, or a 100kT Liquid Argon Time-Projection Chamber (TPC) deployed on the surface at any of the proposed sites. The physics sensitivities of the proposed experiments are summarized. We find that conventional horn focused wide-band neutrino beam options from FNAL aimed at a massive detector with a baseline of > 1000km have the best sensitivity to CP violation and the neutrino mass hierarchy for values of the mixing angle {theta}{sub 13} down to 2{sup o}.

Small-scale CDM projects in a competitive electricity industry: How good is a simplified baseline methodology?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shrestha, Ram M.; Abeygunawardana, A.M.A.K.

2007-01-01

Setting baseline emissions is one of the principal tasks involved in awarding credits for greenhouse gas emission (GHG) mitigation projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). An emission baseline has to be project-specific in order to be accurate. However, project-specific baseline calculations are subject to high transaction costs, which disadvantage small-scale projects. For this reason, the CDM-Executive Board (CDM-EB) has approved simplified baseline methodologies for selected small-scale CDM project categories. While the simplified methods help reduce the transaction cost, they may also result in inaccuracies in the estimation of emission reductions from CDM projects. The purpose of this paper is to present a rigorous economic scheduling method for calculating the GHG emission reduction in a hypothetical competitive electricity industry due to the operation of a renewable energy-based power plant under CDM and compare the GHG emission reduction derived from the rigorous method with that obtained from the use of a simplified (i.e., standardized) method approved by the CDM-EB. A key finding of the paper is that depending upon the level of power demand, prices of electricity and input fuels, the simplified method can lead to either significant overestimation or substantial underestimation of emission reduction due to the operation of renewable energy-based power projects in a competitive electricity industry

The Southern Forest Futures Project: technical report

Science.gov (United States)

David N. Wear; John G. Greis

2013-01-01

Please visit the Southern Forest Futures Project website for more information.The Southern Forest Futures Project provides a science-based “futuring” analysis of the forests of the 13 States of the Southeastern United States. With findings...

The Southern Forest Futures Project: summary report

Science.gov (United States)

David N. Wear; John G. Greis

2012-01-01

The Southern Forest Futures Project provides a science-based “futuring” analysis of the forests of the 13 States of the Southeastern United States. With findings organized in a set of scenarios and using a combination of computer models and science synthesis, the authors of the Southern Forest Futures Project examine a variety of possible futures that could shape...

Project baselines and boundaries for project-based GHG emission reduction trading : a report to the Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Pilot Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lazarus, M.; Kartha, S.; Bernow, S. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States)

2001-04-01

One of the great challenges for policy makers in the twenty first century is turning out to be global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Recent setbacks in international negotiations do not preclude the imposition of national emission targets. One option being studied to increase the economic efficiency of meeting these targets is the creation of emissions trading markets. The exploration of credit trading in the field of greenhouse gas emissions is carried out under the banner of the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Trading (GERT) Pilot Project. One of its objectives is the development of the institutional framework required for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint Implementation (JI), and other international credit trading programs. To ensure credits are awarded to projects in a fair and transparent manner, technical, methodological, and administrative processes must be put in place. The determination of project baselines and project boundaries represent two of the main challenges confronting policy makers in awarding the credits. A review of baseline and boundary methods was initiated by GERT, and this report also contains a description of the main advantages and drawbacks of the various methods being considered. Lessons learned and opportunities are especially important for GERT to provide proper guidance to developers. The context and rationale for baselines and boundary setting are first explored in this report, as well as the issues of importance, and common criteria for the evaluation of alternative methods. The principal options for baseline determination, advantages and disadvantages, and applicability in various contexts were reviewed in section 2. The topic of avoided electricity use, and how to set consistent baselines for it are discussed in section 3. Project boundary is the topic of section 4, including leakage, upstream and downstream emissions, rebound and positive spillover effects, and means by which these issues can de

Future development of project management competences.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Silvius, A.J.G.; Batenburg, R.

2009-01-01

This paper describes a study into the expected development of the competences of the project manager in the year 2027. The study was performed amongst the members of IPMA-Netherlands during the summer of 2007. In the study the 46 competences of the International Competence Baseline 3 (ICB 3) were

Wind power projects in the CDM: Methodologies and tools for baselines, carbon financing and substainability analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ringius, L.; Grohnheit, Poul Erik; Nielsen, Lars Henrik

2002-01-01

and implications of the various methodologies and approaches in a concrete context, Africa's largest wind farm-namely the 60 MW wind farm located in Zafarana,Egypt is examined as a hypothetical CDM wind power project The report shows that for the present case example there is a difference of about 25% between......The report is intended to be a guidance document for project developers, investors, lenders, and CDM host countries involved in wind power projects in the CDM. The report explores in particular those issues that are important in CDM project assessment anddevelopment - that is, baseline development......, carbon financing, and environmental sustainability. It does not deal in detail with those issues that are routinely covered in a standard wind power project assessment. The report tests, compares, andrecommends methodologies for and approaches to baseline development. To present the application...

Project W-320 thermal hydraulic model benchmarking and baselining

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sathyanarayana, K.

1998-01-01

Project W-320 will be retrieving waste from Tank 241-C-106 and transferring the waste to Tank 241-AY-102. Waste in both tanks must be maintained below applicable thermal limits during and following the waste transfer. Thermal hydraulic process control models will be used for process control of the thermal limits. This report documents the process control models and presents a benchmarking of the models with data from Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102. Revision 1 of this report will provide a baselining of the models in preparation for the initiation of sluicing

Deploying innovative technologies to improve DOE D ampersand D project baselines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rose, R.W.

1997-05-01

The insertion of innovative technologies to replace baseline technologies used in cost estimation and planning of DOE D ampersand D projects is considered a high risk endeavor by project and programmatic decision makers. It is almost always considered safer to go with the open-quotes devil you knowclose quotes than use a new or untried technology, methodology or system. The decision on the specific technology to be utilized to remediate a problem is often made months or years in advance of execution, and the highly proscriptive documentation of agreements necessary to obtain stakeholder and regulator approval of remedial plans is often counterproductive to considering improved technologies

GRI baseline projection of U.S. Energy supply and demand to 2010. 1991 edition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; McCabe, N.C.

1991-04-01

The report summarizes the 1991 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand and presents a series of summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, and the natural gas supply and price trends. Appendixes include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1991 projection, a brief discussion of the potential for higher levels of gas demand, a description of industrial and commercial cogeneration, a description of the independent power producer (IPP) methodology and projection, a comparison of the 1991 edition with previous projections, and a discussion of additional data used in developing the projection

STATUS OF THE US LONG BASELINE NEUTRINO EXPERIMENT STUDY.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

BISHAI,M.

2006-09-21

The US Long Baseline Neutrino Experiment Study was commissioned jointly by Brookhaven National Laboratory and Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory to investigate the potential for future U.S. based long baseline neutrino oscillation experiments beyond the currently planned program. The Study focused on MW class convention at neutrino beams that can be produced at Fermilab or BNL. The experimental baselines are based on two possible detector locations: (1) off-axis to the existing Fermilab NuMI beamline at baselines of 700 to 810 km and (2) NSF's proposed future Deep Underground Science and Engineering Laboratory (DUSEL) at baselines greater than 1000 km. Two detector technologies are considered: a megaton class Water Cherenkov detector deployed deep underground at a DUSEL site, or a 100kT Liquid Argon Time-Projection Chamber (TPC) deployed on the surface at any of the proposed sites. The physics sensitivities of the proposed experiments are summarized. We find that conventional horn focused wide-band neutrino beam options from Fermilab or BNL aimed at a massive detector with a baseline of > 1000 km have the best sensitivity to CP violation and the neutrino mass hierarchy for values of the mixing angle {theta}{sub 13} down to 2.2{sup o}.

Near Detectors based on gas TPCs for neutrino long baseline experiments

CERN Document Server

Blondel, A

2017-01-01

Time Projection Chambers have been used with success for the T2K ND280 near detector and are proposed for an upgrade of the T2K near detector. High pressure TPCs are also being considered for future long-baseline experiments like Hyper-Kamiokande and DUNE. A High Pressure TPC would be a very sensitive detector for the detailed study of neutrino-nucleus interactions, a limiting factor for extracting the ultimate precision in long baseline experiments. The requirements of TPCs for neutrino detectors are quite specific. We propose here the development of state-of-the-art near detectors based on gas TPC: atmospheric pressure TPCs for T2K-II and a high-pressure TPC for neutrino experiments. The project proposed here benefits from a strong involvement of the European (CERN) members of the T2K collaboration and beyond. It is a strongly synergetic precursor of other projects of near detectors using gas TPCs that are under discussion for the long baseline neutrino projects worldwide. It will help maintain and develop...

Wind power projects in the CDM: Methodologies and tools for baselines, carbon financing and substainability analysis[CDM=Clean Development Mechanism

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ringius, L.; Grohnheit, P.E.; Nielsen, L.H.; Olivier, A.L.; Painuly, J.; Villavicencio, A.

2002-12-01

The report is intended to be a guidance document for project developers, investors, lenders, and CDM host countries involved in wind power projects in the CDM. The report explores in particular those issues that are important in CDM project assessment and development - that is, baseline development, carbon financing, and environmental sustainability. It does not deal in detail with those issues that are routinely covered in a standard wind power project assessment. The report tests, compares, and recommends methodologies for and approaches to baseline development. To present the application and implications of the various methodologies and approaches in a concrete context, Africa's largest wind farm-namely the 60 MW wind farm located in Zafarana, Egypt- is examined as a hypothetical CDM wind power project The report shows that for the present case example there is a difference of about 25% between the lowest (0.5496 tCO2/MWh) and the highest emission rate (0.6868 tCO{sub 2}/MWh) estimated in accordance with these three standardized approaches to baseline development according to the Marrakesh Accord. This difference in emission factors comes about partly as a result of including hydroelectric power in the baseline scenario. Hydroelectric resources constitute around 21% of the generation capacity in Egypt, and, if excluding hydropower, the difference between the lowest and the highest baseline is reduced to 18%. Furthermore, since the two variations of the 'historical' baseline option examined result in the highest and the lowest baselines, by disregarding this baseline option altogether the difference between the lowest and the highest is reduced to 16%. The ES3-model, which the Systems Analysis Department at Risoe National Laboratory has developed, makes it possible for this report to explore the project-specific approach to baseline development in some detail. Based on quite disaggregated data on the Egyptian electricity system, including the wind

Neutrino Oscillation Parameter Sensitivity in Future Long-Baseline Experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bass, Matthew [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

2014-01-01

The study of neutrino interactions and propagation has produced evidence for physics beyond the standard model and promises to continue to shed light on rare phenomena. Since the discovery of neutrino oscillations in the late 1990s there have been rapid advances in establishing the three flavor paradigm of neutrino oscillations. The 2012 discovery of a large value for the last unmeasured missing angle has opened the way for future experiments to search for charge-parity symmetry violation in the lepton sector. This thesis presents an analysis of the future sensitivity to neutrino oscillations in the three flavor paradigm for the T2K, NO A, LBNE, and T2HK experiments. The theory of the three flavor paradigm is explained and the methods to use these theoretical predictions to design long baseline neutrino experiments are described. The sensitivity to the oscillation parameters for each experiment is presented with a particular focus on the search for CP violation and the measurement of the neutrino mass hierarchy. The variations of these sensitivities with statistical considerations and experimental design optimizations taken into account are explored. The effects of systematic uncertainties in the neutrino flux, interaction, and detection predictions are also considered by incorporating more advanced simulations inputs from the LBNE experiment.

A modelling framework to project future climate change impacts on streamflow variability and extremes in the West River, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Fei

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In this study, a hydrological modelling framework was introduced to assess the climate change impacts on future river flow in the West River basin, China, especially on streamflow variability and extremes. The modelling framework includes a delta-change method with the quantile-mapping technique to construct future climate forcings on the basis of observed meteorological data and the downscaled climate model outputs. This method is able to retain the signals of extreme weather events, as projected by climate models, in the constructed future forcing scenarios. Fed with the historical and future forcing data, a large-scale hydrologic model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC was executed for streamflow simulations and projections at daily time scales. A bootstrapping resample approach was used as an indirect alternative to test the equality of means, standard deviations and the coefficients of variation for the baseline and future streamflow time series, and to assess the future changes in flood return levels. The West River basin case study confirms that the introduced modelling framework is an efficient effective tool to quantify streamflow variability and extremes in response to future climate change.

Baseline health conditions in selected communities of northern Sierra Leone as revealed by the health impact assessment of a biofuel project.

Science.gov (United States)

Winkler, Mirko S; Knoblauch, Astrid M; Righetti, Aurélie A; Divall, Mark J; Koroma, Manso M; Fofanah, Ibrahim; Turay, Hamid; Hodges, Mary H; Utzinger, Jürg

2014-09-01

As biofuel projects may be associated with positive and negative effects on people's health and wellbeing, a health impact assessment was performed for the Addax Bioenergy Sierra Leone (ABSL) project. We present data from the baseline health survey, which will provide a point of departure for future monitoring and evaluation activities. In December 2010, a cross-sectional survey was carried out in eight potentially affected communities. A broad set of clinical and parasitological indicators were assessed using standardised, quality-controlled procedures, including anthropometry and prevalence of anaemia, Plasmodium falciparum and helminth infections. Complete datasets were obtained from 1221 individuals of 194 households and eight schools. Of children aged biofuel project impacts on community health in a rural setting in sub-Saharan Africa. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Baseline environmental survey of proposed uranium mining projects of Domiasiat, Meghalaya

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khathing, D.T.; Myrboh, B.; Nongkynrih, P.; War, S.A.; Marbaniang, D.G.; Iongwai, P.S.

2005-01-01

West Khasi Hills District of Meghalaya is identified as having a large and rich deposits of Uranium. However, actual extraction on a commercial scale that may lead to an increase in the socio-economic development of the state in particular and the country in general, is yet to be undertaken. This is due to lack of any baseline environmental survey giving rise to speculative information and causing a fear psychosis in the minds of the locals populace about the negative effects of Uranium mining. A preoperational survey and environmental monitoring of the proposed mining sites and its adjacent areas would establish the baseline status of the natural radioactivity and some chemical constituents in different environmental matrices via. air, water, soil, biota and aquatic ecosystems. The North Eastern Hill University, Shillong, Meghalaya has undertaken the Project funded by DST and BRNS, Department of Atomic Energy, Govt. of India which aims to provide baseline environmental data on ambient air, water and soil quality in and around the proposed Uranium mining site of Domiasiat, West Khasi Hills in the state of Meghalaya. Trace elements (elements like Mg, Zn, Ca, K, Na, Se, As, Fe, Cu, Co, Cr, Ni, Pb, Cd, Mn etc) and the status of the activity in the samples are determined. (author)

Expedited technology demonstration project. Project baseline revision 2.2 and FY96 plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-07-01

The Expedited Technology Demonstration Project Plan, Mixed Waste Management Facility (MWMF) current baseline. The revised plan will focus efforts specifically on the demonstration of an integrated Molten Salt Oxidation (MSO) system. In addition to the MSO primary unit, offgas, and salt recycle subsystems, the demonstrations will include feed preparation and feed delivery systems, and the generation of robust final forms from process mineral residues. A simplified process flow chart for the expedited demonstration is provided. To minimize costs and to accelerate the schedule for deployment, the integrated system will be staged in an existing facility at LLNL equipped to handle hazardous and radioactive materials. The MSO systems will be activated in fiscal year 97, followed by the activation of feed preparation and final forms in fiscal year 98

Medial Temporal Lobe Contributions to Episodic Future Thinking: Scene Construction or Future Projection?

Science.gov (United States)

Palombo, D J; Hayes, S M; Peterson, K M; Keane, M M; Verfaellie, M

2018-02-01

Previous research has shown that the medial temporal lobes (MTL) are more strongly engaged when individuals think about the future than about the present, leading to the suggestion that future projection drives MTL engagement. However, future thinking tasks often involve scene processing, leaving open the alternative possibility that scene-construction demands, rather than future projection, are responsible for the MTL differences observed in prior work. This study explores this alternative account. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we directly contrasted MTL activity in 1) high scene-construction and low scene-construction imagination conditions matched in future thinking demands and 2) future-oriented and present-oriented imagination conditions matched in scene-construction demands. Consistent with the alternative account, the MTL was more active for the high versus low scene-construction condition. By contrast, MTL differences were not observed when comparing the future versus present conditions. Moreover, the magnitude of MTL activation was associated with the extent to which participants imagined a scene but was not associated with the extent to which participants thought about the future. These findings help disambiguate which component processes of imagination specifically involve the MTL. Published by Oxford University Press 2016.

Projections of the current and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

McDonald, Scott A; Dahlui, Maznah; Mohamed, Rosmawati; Naning, Herlianna; Shabaruddin, Fatiha Hana; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba

2015-01-01

The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia has been estimated at 2.5% of the adult population. Our objective, satisfying one of the directives of the WHO Framework for Global Action on Viral Hepatitis, was to forecast the HCV disease burden in Malaysia using modelling methods. An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed. In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039. The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia.

Projecting future summer mortality due to ambient ozone concentration and temperature changes

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jae Young; Lee, Soo Hyun; Hong, Sung-Chul; Kim, Ho

2017-05-01

Climate change is known to affect the human health both directly by increased heat stress and indirectly by altering environments, particularly by altering the rate of ambient ozone formation in the atmosphere. Thus, the risks of climate change may be underestimated if the effects of both future temperature and ambient ozone concentrations are not considered. This study presents a projection of future summer non-accidental mortality in seven major cities of South Korea during the 2020s (2016-2025) and 2050s (2046-2055) considering changes in temperature and ozone concentration, which were predicted by using the HadGEM3-RA model and Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System, respectively. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) were considered. The result shows that non-accidental summer mortality will increase by 0.5%, 0.0%, 0.4%, and 0.4% in the 2020s, 1.9%, 1.5%, 1.2%, and 4.4% in the 2050s due to temperature change compared to the baseline mortality during 2001-2010, under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the mortality will increase by 0.0%, 0.5%, 0.0%, and 0.5% in the 2020s, and 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.6% in the 2050s due to ozone concentration change. The projection result shows that the future summer morality in South Korea is increased due to changes in both temperature and ozone, and the magnitude of ozone-related increase is much smaller than that of temperature-related increase, especially in the 2050s.

GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010. 1992 edition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; Koklauner, A.B.

1992-04-01

The annual GRI baseline projection is the result of a complex modeling effort that seeks to achieve an internally consistent energy supply and demand outlook across all energy sources and end-use demand sectors. The year's projection includes the adoption of a new petroleum refinery methodology, the incorporation of a new approach to determining electric utility generating capacity heat rates, the extensive update of both the residential and commercial databases and methodologies, and the continued update of the GRI Hydrocarbon Model. The report presents a series of summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, and the natural gas supply and price trends. The appendices include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1992 edition of the projection, an analysis of the potential for higher levels of gas demand, a description of industrial and commercial cogeneration, a description of the independent power producer projection, a comparison of the 1992 edition of the projection with previous GRI projections, and a discussion of additional data used in developing the projection

Self-defining future projections: exploring the identity function of thinking about the future.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Lardi, Claudia; Van der Linden, Martial

2012-01-01

The act of projecting oneself into meaningful future events may significantly contribute to a person's sense of self and identity. Yet if the role of memories, in particular self-defining memories (SDMs), in grounding the self is now well established, the identity function of anticipated future events has received comparatively little attention. This article introduces the construct of self-defining future projection (SDFP) to address this issue. Two studies show that people can readily identify significant future events that they frequently think about and that convey core information about who they are as individuals. Furthermore, a person's particular style of constructing SDMs is similarly manifested in SDFPs, suggesting that both types of events can be used to ground the self. Notably, people who display a stronger tendency to extract meaning from their past experiences also reflect more about the potential implications of imagined future events. The results further demonstrate that SDMs and SDFPs both give rise to a strong sense of personal continuity over time and are meaningfully related to self-esteem. Together these findings lend support to the idea that a person's sense of self and identity is in part nourished by the anticipation of significant future events.

The Future of Project Management in Technical Communication

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kampf, Constance

2006-01-01

Project Management increasing shapes workplace communication, especially when technical commuicators participate in cross-disciplinary development teams. This paper looks at the future of project management in technical communication and argues for a communicative approach to project management...... for technical communication students. The Project Management course in the International Bachelor Program of Marketing and Management Communication at the Aarhus School of Business is described, and the implications fortechnical communication curricula are discussed....

The IUGS/IAGC Task Group on Global Geochemical Baselines

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, David B.; Wang, Xueqiu; Reeder, Shaun; Demetriades, Alecos

2012-01-01

The Task Group on Global Geochemical Baselines, operating under the auspices of both the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS) and the International Association of Geochemistry (IAGC), has the long-term goal of establishing a global geochemical database to document the concentration and distribution of chemical elements in the Earth’s surface or near-surface environment. The database and accompanying element distribution maps represent a geochemical baseline against which future human-induced or natural changes to the chemistry of the land surface may be recognized and quantified. In order to accomplish this long-term goal, the activities of the Task Group include: (1) developing partnerships with countries conducting broad-scale geochemical mapping studies; (2) providing consultation and training in the form of workshops and short courses; (3) organizing periodic international symposia to foster communication among the geochemical mapping community; (4) developing criteria for certifying those projects whose data are acceptable in a global geochemical database; (5) acting as a repository for data collected by those projects meeting the criteria for standardization; (6) preparing complete metadata for the certified projects; and (7) preparing, ultimately, a global geochemical database. This paper summarizes the history and accomplishments of the Task Group since its first predecessor project was established in 1988.

Projecting future sea level

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

2006-01-01

California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future

DairyBISS Baseline report

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buizer, N.N.; Berhanu, Tinsae; Murutse, Girmay; Vugt, van S.M.

2015-01-01

This baseline report of the Dairy Business Information Service and Support (DairyBISS) project presents the findings of a baseline survey among 103 commercial farms and 31 firms and advisors working in the dairy value chain. Additional results from the survey among commercial dairy farms are

Development of a database system for near-future climate change projections under the Japanese National Project SI-CAT

Science.gov (United States)

Nakagawa, Y.; Kawahara, S.; Araki, F.; Matsuoka, D.; Ishikawa, Y.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Okada, Y.; Kawazoe, S.; Watanabe, S.; Ishii, M.; Mizuta, R.; Murata, A.; Kawase, H.

2017-12-01

Analyses of large ensemble data are quite useful in order to produce probabilistic effect projection of climate change. Ensemble data of "+2K future climate simulations" are currently produced by Japanese national project "Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT)" as a part of a database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF; Mizuta et al. 2016) produced by Program for Risk Information on Climate Change. Those data consist of global warming simulations and regional downscaling simulations. Considering that those data volumes are too large (a few petabyte) to download to a local computer of users, a user-friendly system is required to search and download data which satisfy requests of the users. We develop "a database system for near-future climate change projections" for providing functions to find necessary data for the users under SI-CAT. The database system for near-future climate change projections mainly consists of a relational database, a data download function and user interface. The relational database using PostgreSQL is a key function among them. Temporally and spatially compressed data are registered on the relational database. As a first step, we develop the relational database for precipitation, temperature and track data of typhoon according to requests by SI-CAT members. The data download function using Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) provides a function to download temporally and spatially extracted data based on search results obtained by the relational database. We also develop the web-based user interface for using the relational database and the data download function. A prototype of the database system for near-future climate change projections are currently in operational test on our local server. The database system for near-future climate change projections will be released on Data Integration and Analysis System Program (DIAS) in fiscal year 2017

Baseline for trust: defining 'new and additional' climate funding

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stadelmann, Martin [University of Zurich (Switzerland); Roberts, J. Timmons [Brown University (United States); Huq, Saleemul

2010-06-15

Climate finance is becoming a dark curve on the road from Copenhagen to Cancún. Poorer nations fear that richer ones will fulfil the US$30 billion 'fast-start' climate finance promises made in the non-binding Copenhagen Accord by relabelling or diverting basic development aid, or by simply delivering on past climate finance pledges. The problem is simple: contributor countries are operating with no clear baseline against which their promise of 'new and additional' funding can be counted – and they do not accept the baselines put forth by developing countries. A viable solution for the short term is to use projections of business-as-usual development assistance as baselines. The longer-term benchmark could be the provision of truly 'new' funds from new funding sources. Substantial up-front negotiations may be required, but seizing this opportunity to define baselines will build confidence on both sides and create predictability for future finance.

Policy implications of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010, 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The paper summarizes the 1993 edition of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, and presents the implications of the projection that are important for GRI research and development planning and the gas industry. The survey of supply and demand considerations is followed by a breakdown of energy demand by type of fuel, by consumption sector, and by service application. Gas supply and prices are analyzed in terms of two scenarios: a constrained energy demand scenario, and an optimistic scenario. Tables and charts accompany the summary

Methane emission from ruminants and solid waste: A critical analysis of baseline and mitigation projections for climate and policy studies

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, E.

2012-12-01

Current and projected estimates of methane (CH4) emission from anthropogenic sources are numerous but largely unexamined or compared. Presented here is a critical appraisal of CH4 projections used in climate-chemistry and policy studies. We compare emissions for major CH4 sources from several groups, including our own new data and RCP projections developed for climate-chemistry models for the next IPCC Assessment Report (AR5). We focus on current and projected baseline and mitigation emissions from ruminant animals and solid waste that are both predicted to rise dramatically in coming decades, driven primarily by developing countries. For waste, drivers include increasing urban populations, higher per capita waste generation due to economic growth and increasing landfilling rates. Analysis of a new global data base detailing waste composition, collection and disposal indicates that IPCC-based methodologies and default data overestimate CH4 emission for the current period which cascades into substantial overestimates in future projections. CH4 emission from solid waste is estimated to be ~10-15 Tg CH4/yr currently rather than the ~35 Tg/yr often reported in the literature. Moreover, emissions from developing countries are unlikely to rise rapidly in coming decades because new management approaches, such as sanitary landfills, that would increase emissions are maladapted to infrastructures in these countries and therefore unlikely to be implemented. The low current emission associated with solid waste (~10 Tg), together with future modest growth, implies that mitigation of waste-related CH4 emission is a poor candidate for slowing global warming. In the case of ruminant animals (~90 Tg CH4/yr currently), the dominant assumption driving future trajectories of CH4 emission is a substantial increase in meat and dairy consumption in developing countries to be satisfied by growing animal populations. Unlike solid waste, current ruminant emissions among studies exhibit a

Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030.

Science.gov (United States)

Mathers, Colin D; Loncar, Dejan

2006-11-01

Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. Relatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios-baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic-based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. Under the optimistic scenario, which

Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Colin D Mathers

2006-11-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Relatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios-baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic-based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs

Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030

Science.gov (United States)

Mathers, Colin D; Loncar, Dejan

2006-01-01

Background Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. Methods and Findings Relatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios—baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic—based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012

Cryogenics Testbed Laboratory Flange Baseline Configuration

Science.gov (United States)

Acuna, Marie Lei Ysabel D.

2013-01-01

As an intern at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), I was involved in research for the Fluids and Propulsion Division of the NASA Engineering (NE) Directorate. I was immersed in the Integrated Ground Operations Demonstration Units (IGODU) project for the majority of my time at KSC, primarily with the Ground Operations Demonstration Unit Liquid Oxygen (GODU L02) branch of IGODU. This project was established to develop advancements in cryogenic systems as a part of KSC's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program. The vision of AES is to develop new approaches for human exploration, and operations in and beyond low Earth orbit. Advanced cryogenic systems are crucial to minimize the consumable losses of cryogenic propellants, develop higher performance launch vehicles, and decrease operations cost for future launch programs. During my internship, I conducted a flange torque tracking study that established a baseline configuration for the flanges in the Simulated Propellant Loading System (SPLS) at the KSC Cryogenics Test Laboratory (CTL) - the testing environment for GODU L02.

Carbon emission coefficient of power consumption in India: baseline determination from the demand side

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nag, Barnali; Parikh, J.K.

2005-01-01

Substantial investments are expected in the Indian power sector under the flexibility mechanisms (CDM/JI) laid down in Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol. In this context it is important to evolve a detailed framework for baseline construction in the power sector so as to incorporate the major factors that would affect the baseline values directly or indirectly. It is also important to establish carbon coefficients from electricity generation to help consider accurate project boundaries for numerous electricity conservation and DSM schemes. The objective of this paper is to provide (i) time series estimates of indirect carbon emissions per unit of power consumption (which can also be thought of as emission coefficient of power consumption) and (ii) baseline emissions for the power sector till 2015. Annual time series data on Indian electricity generating industry, for 1974-1998, has been used to develop emission projections till 2015. The impacts of generation mix, fuel efficiency, transmission and distribution losses and auxiliary consumption are studied in a Divisia decomposition framework and their possible future impacts on baseline emissions are studied through three scenarios of growth in power consumption. The study also estimates and projects the carbon emission coefficient per unit of final consumption of electricity that can be used for conducting cost benefit of emission reduction potential for several electricity conserving technologies and benchmarking policy models

Promoting Energy-Balance Behaviors among Ethnically Diverse Adolescents: Overview and Baseline Findings of the Central Texas CATCH Middle School Project

Science.gov (United States)

Springer, Andrew E.; Kelder, Steven H.; Byrd-Williams, Courtney E.; Pasch, Keryn E.; Ranjit, Nalini; Delk, Joanne E.; Hoelscher, Deanna M.

2013-01-01

The Central Texas Coordinated Approach To Child Health (CATCH) Middle School Project is a 3.5-year school-based project aimed at promoting physical activity (PA), healthy eating, and obesity prevention among public middle school students in Texas. This article describes the CATCH intervention model and presents baseline findings from spring 2009.…

Projection of Korean Probable Maximum Precipitation under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Okjeong Lee

2016-01-01

Full Text Available According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, air temperature and humidity of the future are expected to gradually increase over the current. In this study, future PMPs are estimated by using future dew point temperature projection data which are obtained from RCM data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. First, bias included in future dew point temperature projection data which is provided on a daily basis is corrected through a quantile-mapping method. Next, using a scale-invariance technique, 12-hour duration 100-year return period dew point temperatures which are essential input data for PMPs estimation are estimated from bias-corrected future dew point temperature data. After estimating future PMPs, it can be shown that PMPs in all future climate change scenarios (AR5 RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 are very likely to increase.

Photosynthetic energy conversion efficiency: setting a baseline for gauging future improvements in important food and biofuel crops.

Science.gov (United States)

Slattery, Rebecca A; Ort, Donald R

2015-06-01

The conversion efficiency (ε(c)) of absorbed radiation into biomass (MJ of dry matter per MJ of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation) is a component of yield potential that has been estimated at less than half the theoretical maximum. Various strategies have been proposed to improve ε(c), but a statistical analysis to establish baseline ε(c) levels across different crop functional types is lacking. Data from 164 published ε(c) studies conducted in relatively unstressed growth conditions were used to determine the means, greatest contributors to variation, and genetic trends in ε(c )across important food and biofuel crop species. ε(c) was greatest in biofuel crops (0.049-0.066), followed by C4 food crops (0.046-0.049), C3 nonlegumes (0.036-0.041), and finally C3 legumes (0.028-0.035). Despite confining our analysis to relatively unstressed growth conditions, total incident solar radiation and average growing season temperature most often accounted for the largest portion of ε(c) variability. Genetic improvements in ε(c), when present, were less than 0.7% per year, revealing the unrealized potential of improving ε(c) as a promising contributing strategy to meet projected future agricultural demand. © 2015 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Current status of RCA projects and strategies for future implementation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Kyoung Pyo; Lee, Jeong Kong

1998-12-01

This report is intended to provide basic overall information about ways to promote technical cooperation within the framework of RCA to accelerate and coordinate cooperative activities in nuclear science and technology in Asia and the Pacific region through a thorough review on the current status and through suggesting future implementation strategies. The contents of this report include an overall introduction of RCA, guidelines and operating rules for RCA programmes, current status and future plans for RCA projects as well as the RCA vision for the next 25 years. By reviewing the current status and future implementation strategies for RCA projects, it will help to set up a national nuclear policy aimed at seeking maximum benefits from participation in RCA projects and to implement programmes for nuclear cooperation with Asian-Pacific countries. It is expected that as a lead country for the energy sector, which is one of five thematic areas for the year 1999 - 2000 cycle programmes, Korea will continue to make significant contributions towards the implementation of RCA programmes in the future. With this report, we plan to keep up with future developments as well as implement an effective cooperation with the countries in the region so that the opinion of Korea, one of the nuclear advanced countries in the region, can be fully reflected in the establishment of future plans for RCA programmes. (author). 3 refs., 5 tabs., 1 fig

Uncertainty of runoff projections under changing climate in Wami River sub-basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frank Joseph Wambura

2015-09-01

New Hydrological Insights for the Region: The results of projected streamflow shows that the baseline annual climatology flow (ACF is 98 m3/s and for the future, the median ACF is projected to be 81 m3/s. At 100% uncertainty of skilled projections, the ACF from the sub-basin is projected to range between −47% and +36% from the baseline ACF. However, the midstream of the sub-basin shows reliable water availability for foreseen water uses expansion up to the year 2039.

A review of the possible future HEP Accelerator Projects

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2010-01-01

The review, as already invited for presentation at the recent International Conference on High Energy Physics (ICHEP2010), covers all accelerator projects presently envisaged for HEP in the near and mid-term future. After a brief description of the major motivation, issues and necessary R&D of each project, it specially emphasizes the synergies between the different projects and their R&D issues, pointing out their complementarities and the efficient collaborative approach to address them. It finally summarizes the relative schedule of the various projects in their different phases, pointing out their global interdependence.

Using the baseline environmental management report (BEMR) to examine alternate program scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristofferson, K.

1995-01-01

The US Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) released the first Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR) in March, 1995. The Congressionally-mandated report provides life-cycle cost estimates, tentative schedules, and projected activities necessary to complete DOE's Environmental Management Program. This ''base case'' estimate is based on current program assumptions and the most likely set of activities. However, since the future course of the Environmental Management Program depends upon a number of fundamental technical and policy choices, alternate program scenarios were developed. These alternate cases show the potential cost impacts of changing assumptions in four key areas: future land use, program funding and scheduling, technology development, and waste management configurations. Several cost and program evaluation tools were developed to support the analysis of these alternate cases. The objective of this paper is to describe the analytical tool kit developed to support the development of the 1995 Baseline Report and to discuss the application of these tools to evaluate alternate program scenarios

Space Projects: Improvements Needed in Selecting Future Projects for Private Financing

Science.gov (United States)

1990-01-01

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and NASA jointly selected seven projects for commercialization to reduce NASA's fiscal year 1990 budget request and to help achieve the goal of increasing private sector involvement in space. However, the efforts to privately finance these seven projects did not increase the commercial sector's involvement in space to the extent desired. The General Accounting Office (GAO) determined that the projects selected were not a fair test of the potential of increasing commercial investment in space at an acceptable cost to the government, primarily because the projects were not properly screened. That is, neither their suitability for commercialization nor the economic consequences of seeking private financing for them were adequately evaluated before selection. Evaluations and market tests done after selection showed that most of the projects were not viable candidates for private financing. GAO concluded that projects should not be removed from NASA's budget for commercial development until after careful screening has been done to determine whether adequate commercial demand exists, development risks are commercially acceptable and private financing is found or judged to be highly likely, and the cost effectiveness of such a decision is acceptable. Premature removal of projects from NASA's budget ultimately can cause project delays and increased costs when unsuccessful commercialization candidates must be returned to the budget. NASA also needs to ensure appropriate comparisons of government and private financing options for future commercialization projects.

Ecological risk assessments for the baseline condition for the Port Hope and Port Granby Projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hart, D.R.; Kleb, H.

2006-01-01

Baseline ecological risk assessments were completed in and around the areas where cleanup of low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) and marginally contaminated soil (MCS) is planned under the Port Hope Area Initiative (PHAI). Both aquatic and terrestrial environments were assessed, in the vicinity of the proposed waste management facilities near Welcome and Port Granby, in locations potentially influenced by LLRW and MCS that will be cleaned up in future, and in reference locations that are not potentially influenced. The calculated doses and risk quotients suggest potential radiation effects for pre-cleanup benthic invertebrates in Port Hope Harbour, for any ducks feeding exclusively in this area, and for soil invertebrates in some other waste sites. In addition, risk quotients suggest potential baseline effects from some elements, particularly uranium and arsenic, in localized areas that are influenced by LLRW and MCS. (author)

Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

2018-06-01

Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

Costing Future Complex and Novel Projects

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-30

Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) is reported. The work involves pioneering data collection, analysis, and tool development to support... philosophy of the work and future prospects for its wider application. Summary The United Kingdom National Audit Office Major Projects Report 2014 states...the work will be in tackling variety in the data collected, one of the “3 Vs ” of Big Data. The outline programme is shown in Figure 2. Programme

Analysis of CDM Projects' Portfolio in West African Economic and Monetary Union - Regional Baseline Assessment in Energy Sector. Case Study: Benin, Burkina Faso, Niger and Togo

OpenAIRE

Satoguina, Honorat

2006-01-01

This study analyses current energy projects in Benin, Burkina Faso, Niger and Togo. Based on the size of these projects, the study shows that currently, only small scale CDM projects can be developed in these countries in energy sectors. Moreover, baseline emissions factors are assessed for the different electricity grids. These baselines are very low in interconnected grids in cities, while they are relatively high for isolated and non-connected utilities in remote areas. Consequently, count...

2016 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) - Webinar Presentation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cole, Wesley; Kurup, Parthiv; Hand, Maureen; Feldman, David; Sigrin, Benjamin; Lantz, Eric; Stehly, Tyler; Augustine, Chad; Turchi, Craig; Porro, Gian; O' Connor, Patrick; Waldoch, Connor

2016-09-13

This deck was presented for the 2016 Annual Technology Baseline Webinar. The presentation describes the Annual Technology Baseline, which is a compilation of current and future cost and performance data for electricity generation technologies.

Office of Geologic Repositories program baseline procedures notebook (OGR/B-1)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-06-01

Baseline management is typically applied to aid in the internal control of a program by providing consistent programmatic direction, control, and surveillance to an evolving system development. This fundamental concept of internal program control involves the establishment of a baseline to serve as a point of departure for consistent technical program coordination and to control subsequent changes from that baseline. The existence of a program-authorized baseline ensures that all participants are working to the same ground rules. Baseline management also ensures that, once the baseline is defined, changes are assessed and approved by a process which ensures adequate consideration of overall program impact. Baseline management also includes the consideration of examptions from the baseline. The process of baseline management continues through all the phases of an evolving system development program. As the Program proceeds, there will be a progressive increase in the data contained in the baseline documentation. Baseline management has been selected as a management technique to aid in the internal control of the Office of Geologic Repositories (OGR) program. Specifically, an OGR Program Baseline, including technical and programmatic requirements, is used for program control of the four Mined Geologic Disposal System field projects, i.e., Basalt Waste Isolation Project, Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation, Salt Repository Project and Crystalline Repository Project. This OGR Program Baseline Procedures Notebook provides a description of the baseline mwanagement concept, establishes the OGR Program baseline itself, and provides procedures to be followed for controlling changes to that baseline. The notebook has a controlled distribution and will be updated as required

Oscillation Baselining and Analysis Tool

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2017-03-27

PNNL developed a new tool for oscillation analysis and baselining. This tool has been developed under a new DOE Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC) Project (GM0072 - “Suite of open-source applications and models for advanced synchrophasor analysis”) and it is based on the open platform for PMU analysis. The Oscillation Baselining and Analysis Tool (OBAT) performs the oscillation analysis and identifies modes of oscillations (frequency, damping, energy, and shape). The tool also does oscillation event baselining (fining correlation between oscillations characteristics and system operating conditions).

Program reference schedule baseline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-07-01

This Program Reference Schedule Baseline (PRSB) provides the baseline Program-level milestones and associated schedules for the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program. It integrates all Program-level schedule-related activities. This schedule baseline will be used by the Director, Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), and his staff to monitor compliance with Program objectives. Chapter 1 includes brief discussions concerning the relationship of the PRSB to the Program Reference Cost Baseline (PRCB), the Mission Plan, the Project Decision Schedule, the Total System Life Cycle Cost report, the Program Management Information System report, the Program Milestone Review, annual budget preparation, and system element plans. Chapter 2 includes the identification of all Level 0, or Program-level, milestones, while Chapter 3 presents and discusses the critical path schedules that correspond to those Level 0 milestones

Life cycle baseline summary for ADS 6504IS Isotopes Facilities Deactivation Project at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-11-01

The purpose of the Isotopes Facility Deactivation Project (IFDP) is to place former isotopes production facilities at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in a safe, stable, and environmentally sound condition; suitable for an extended period of minimum surveillance and maintenance (S ampersand M) and as quickly and economically as possible. This baseline plan establishes the official target schedule for completing the deactivation work and the associated budget required for deactivation and the necessary S ampersand M. Deactivation of the facilities 3026C, 3026D, 3028, 3029, 3038E, 3038M, and 3038AHF, the Center Circle buildings 3047, 3517, and 7025 will continue though Fiscal Year (FY) 1999. The focus of the project in the early years will be on the smaller buildings that require less deactivation and can bring an early return in reducing S ampersand M costs. This baseline plan covers the period from FY1995 throughout FY2000. Deactivation will continue in various facilities through FY1999. A final year of S ampersand M will conclude the project in FY2000. The estimated total cost of the project during this period is $51M

The possibility of previous epidemiological data to serve as baseline for future national oral health surveys--a study in Vietnam.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Palenstein Helderman, W.H. van; Truin, G.J.; Can, N.; Khanh, N.D.

2001-01-01

AIM: The purpose of this paper is to review the most recent epidemiological data (1985-2000) on dental caries and periodontal diseases in Vietnam in an attempt to obtain a 'baseline' for future national oral health surveys. METHODS: Studies on periodontal diseases and caries were included when CPITN

Calculation Method for the Projection of Future Spent Nuclear Fuel Discharges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

B. McLeod

2002-01-01

This report describes the calculation method developed for the projection of future utility spent nuclear fuel (SNF) discharges in regard to their timing, quantity, burnup, and initial enrichment. This projection method complements the utility-supplied RW-859 data on historic discharges and short-term projections of SNF discharges by providing long-term projections that complete the total life cycle of discharges for each of the current U.S. nuclear power reactors. The method was initially developed in mid-1999 to update the SNF discharge projection associated with the 1995 RW-859 utility survey (CRWMS M and O 1996). and was further developed as described in Rev. 00 of this report (CRWMS M and O 2001a). Primary input to the projection of SNF discharges is the utility projection of the next five discharges from each nuclear unit, which is provided via the revised final version of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 1998 RW-859 utility survey (EIA 2000a). The projection calculation method is implemented via a set of Excel 97 spreadsheets. These calculations provide the interface between receipt of the utility five-discharge projections that are provided in the RW-859 survey, and the delivery of projected life-cycle SNF discharge quantities and characteristics in the format requisite for performing logistics analysis to support design of the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS). Calculation method improvements described in this report include the addition of a reactor-specific maximum enrichment-based discharge burnup limit. This limit is the consequence of the enrichment limit, currently 5 percent. which is imposed as a Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) license condition on nuclear fuel fabrication plants. In addition, the calculation method now includes the capability for projecting future nuclear plant power upratings, consistent with many such recent plant uprates and the prospect of additional future uprates. Finally. this report

National greenhouse gas emissions baseline scenarios. Learning from experiences in developing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-04-15

This report reviews national approaches to preparing baseline scenarios of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. It does so by describing and comparing in non-technical language existing practices and choices made by ten developing countries - Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Vietnam. The review focuses on a number of key elements, including model choices, transparency considerations, choices about underlying assumptions and challenges associated with data management. The aim is to improve overall understanding of baseline scenarios and facilitate their use for policy-making in developing countries more broadly. The findings are based on the results of a collaborative project involving a number of activities undertaken by the Danish Energy Agency, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UNEP Risoe Centre (URC), including a series of workshops on the subject. The ten contributing countries account for approximately 40% of current global GHG emissions - a share that is expected to increase in the future. The breakdown of emissions by sector varies widely among these countries. In some countries, the energy sector is the leading source of emissions; for others, the land-use sector and/or agricultural sector dominate emissions. The report underscores some common technical and financial capacity gaps faced by developing countries when preparing baseline scenarios. It does not endeavour to propose guidelines for preparing baseline scenarios. Rather, it is hoped that the report will inform any future attempts at preparing such kind of guidelines. (Author)

Development Of Regional Climate Mitigation Baseline For A DominantAgro-Ecological Zone Of Karnataka, India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sudha, P.; Shubhashree, D.; Khan, H.; Hedge, G.T.; Murthy, I.K.; Shreedhara, V.; Ravindranath, N.H.

2007-06-01

Setting a baseline for carbon stock changes in forest andland use sector mitigation projects is an essential step for assessingadditionality of the project. There are two approaches for settingbaselines namely, project-specific and regional baseline. This paperpresents the methodology adopted for estimating the land available formitigation, for developing a regional baseline, transaction cost involvedand a comparison of project-specific and regional baseline. The studyshowed that it is possible to estimate the potential land and itssuitability for afforestation and reforestation mitigation projects,using existing maps and data, in the dry zone of Karnataka, southernIndia. The study adopted a three-step approach for developing a regionalbaseline, namely: i) identification of likely baseline options for landuse, ii) estimation of baseline rates of land-use change, and iii)quantification of baseline carbon profile over time. The analysis showedthat carbon stock estimates made for wastelands and fallow lands forproject-specific as well as the regional baseline are comparable. Theratio of wasteland Carbon stocks of a project to regional baseline is1.02, and that of fallow lands in the project to regional baseline is0.97. The cost of conducting field studies for determination of regionalbaseline is about a quarter of the cost of developing a project-specificbaseline on a per hectare basis. The study has shown the reliability,feasibility and cost-effectiveness of adopting regional baseline forforestry sectormitigation projects.

Large short-baseline νμ disappearance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giunti, Carlo; Laveder, Marco

2011-01-01

We analyze the LSND, KARMEN, and MiniBooNE data on short-baseline ν μ →ν e oscillations and the data on short-baseline ν e disappearance obtained in the Bugey-3 and CHOOZ reactor experiments in the framework of 3+1 antineutrino mixing, taking into account the MINOS observation of long-baseline ν μ disappearance and the KamLAND observation of very-long-baseline ν e disappearance. We show that the fit of the data implies that the short-baseline disappearance of ν μ is relatively large. We obtain a prediction of an effective amplitude sin 2 2θ μμ > or approx. 0.1 for short-baseline ν μ disappearance generated by 0.2 2 2 , which could be measured in future experiments.

The German joint research project "concepts for future gravity satellite missions"

Science.gov (United States)

Reubelt, Tilo; Sneeuw, Nico; Fichter, Walter; Müller, Jürgen

2010-05-01

Within the German joint research project "concepts for future gravity satellite missions", funded by the Geotechnologies programme of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, options and concepts for future satellite missions for precise (time-variable) gravity field recovery are investigated. The project team is composed of members from science and industry, bringing together experts in geodesy, satellite systems, metrology, sensor technology and control systems. The majority of team members already contributed to former gravity missions. The composition of the team guarantees that not only geodetic aspects and objectives are investigated, but also technological and financial constraints are considered. Conversely, satellite, sensor and system concepts are developed and improved in a direct exchange with geodetic and scientific claims. The project aims to develop concepts for both near and mid-term future satellite missions, taking into account e.g. advanced satellite formations and constellations, improved orbit design, innovative metrology and sensor systems and advances in satellite systems.

The Future of the Mississippi Delta: Shifting Baselines, Diminishing Resilience, and Growing Non-Sustainability

Science.gov (United States)

Day, J.

2017-12-01

Ecosystems and human communities of the Mississippi delta developed with predictable basin inputs, stable sea level, and as an open system with a high degree of interaction among drainage basin inputs, deltaic plain, and the coastal sea. Human activity changed altered the coast and lowered predictability. Management has become very energy intensive and dependent on cheap resources with more hard engineering and less ecological engineering. Pervasive alteration of the basin and delta and global change have altered the baseline and change is accelerating. Climate change projections include not only sea-level rise, but also more stronger hurricanes, increased large river floods, and more intense rainfall events and droughts. A sustainable Mississippi is outside of the boundaries of the current CMP.

Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

2011-01-01

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

Assessment of risks due to climate change for the Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project in Nepal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sangam Shrestha

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change poses significant challenges to hydropower development and management in mountainous basins. This study examined the impact of climate change, and the associated risks, on the energy production of the Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project, which is located in the Tamakoshi basin of Nepal. The outputs of three GCMs—namely MIROC-ESM, MRI-CGCM3, and MPI-ESM-M—under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP scenarios were used for the projection of precipitation and temperature in the future. The minimum and maximum temperatures of the basin are projected to increase by 6.33 °C and 3.82 °C, respectively, by 2100. The projected precipitation varies from −8% to +24.8%, which is expected to alter the streamflow by −37.83% to +47% in the future. Based on the streamflow output, the risk for energy production was calculated with respect to the baseline energy production of 1963 GW h and 2281 GW h. Using the three GCMs, the risk associated with annual hydropower production under altered runoff was analyzed. The risk percentage in the future periods shows a mild risk varying from 0.69% to 6.63%. MPI-ESM-M GCM projects a higher percentage of risk for energy production during the same future periods, as compared to the baseline energy production of 1963 GW h. A mild to moderate risk, ranging from 2.73% to 13.24% can be expected when energy production in the future is compared to the baseline energy production of 2281 GW h.

Baseline development, economic risk, and schedule risk: An integrated approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tonkinson, J.A.

1994-01-01

The economic and schedule risks of Environmental Restoration (ER) projects are commonly analyzed toward the end of the baseline development process. Risk analysis is usually performed as the final element of the scheduling or estimating processes for the purpose of establishing cost and schedule contingency. However, there is an opportunity for earlier assessment of risks, during development of the technical scope and Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Integrating the processes of risk management and baselining provides for early incorporation of feedback regarding schedule and cost risk into the proposed scope of work. Much of the information necessary to perform risk analysis becomes available during development of the technical baseline, as the scope of work and WBS are being defined. The analysis of risk can actually be initiated early on during development of the technical baseline and continue throughout development of the complete project baseline. Indeed, best business practices suggest that information crucial to the success of a project be analyzed and incorporated into project planning as soon as it is available and usable

Environmental baseline study of the Los Medanos Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) project area of New Mexico: a progress report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wolfe, H.G. (ed.)

1977-09-01

Exploratory drilling operations are being conducted for a Waste Isolation Pilot Program in southeastern New Mexico. Prior to the establishment of such a program, an environmental study was initiated to serve as a baseline for evaluation of the impact of future activities in the Los Medanos area. Much of this area has been influenced by human activities over a long period, and hence the baseline data only reflects the present, relatively disturbed condition of the environment. The study covers air resources, soils, and biotic resources. 23 tables, 6 figs. (DLC)

Integrated planning: A baseline development perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, L.; Chang, D.

1994-01-01

The FEMP Baseline establishes the basis for integrating environmental activity technical requirements with their cost and schedule elements. The result is a path forward to successfully achieving the FERMCO mission. Specific to cost management, the FEMP Baseline has been incorporate into the FERMCO Project Control System (PCS) to provide a time-phased budget plan against which contractor performance is measured with an earned value management system. The result is the Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB), an important tool for keeping cost under control

The California Baseline Methane Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Duren, R. M.; Thorpe, A. K.; Hopkins, F. M.; Rafiq, T.; Bue, B. D.; Prasad, K.; Mccubbin, I.; Miller, C. E.

2017-12-01

The California Baseline Methane Survey is the first systematic, statewide assessment of methane point source emissions. The objectives are to reduce uncertainty in the state's methane budget and to identify emission mitigation priorities for state and local agencies, utilities and facility owners. The project combines remote sensing of large areas with airborne imaging spectroscopy and spatially resolved bottom-up data sets to detect, quantify and attribute emissions from diverse sectors including agriculture, waste management, oil and gas production and the natural gas supply chain. Phase 1 of the project surveyed nearly 180,000 individual facilities and infrastructure components across California in 2016 - achieving completeness rates ranging from 20% to 100% per emission sector at < 5 meters spatial resolution. Additionally, intensive studies of key areas and sectors were performed to assess source persistence and variability at times scales ranging from minutes to months. Phase 2 of the project continues with additional data collection in Spring and Fall 2017. We describe the survey design and measurement, modeling and analysis methods. We present initial findings regarding the spatial, temporal and sectoral distribution of methane point source emissions in California and their estimated contribution to the state's total methane budget. We provide case-studies and lessons learned about key sectors including examples where super-emitters were identified and mitigated. We summarize challenges and recommendations for future methane research, inventories and mitigation guidance within and beyond California.

Present status and future directions of the Mayo/IBM PACS project

Science.gov (United States)

Morin, Richard L.; Forbes, Glenn S.; Gehring, Dale G.; Salutz, James R.; Pavlicek, William

1991-07-01

This joint project began in 1988 and was motivated by the need to develop an alternative to the archival process in place at that time (magnetic tape) for magnetic resonance imaging and neurological computed tomography. In addition, this project was felt to be an important step in gaining the necessary clinical experience for the future implementation of various aspects of electronic imaging. The initial phase of the project was conceived and developed to prove the concept, test the fundamental components, and produce performance measurements for future work. The key functions of this phase centered on attachment of imaging equipment (GE Signa) and archival processes using a non-dedicated (institutionally supplied) local area network (LAN). Attachment of imaging equipment to the LAN was performed using commercially available devices (Ethernet, PS/2, Token Ring). Image data were converted to ACR/NEMA format with retention of the vendor specific header information. Performance measurements were encouraging and led to the design of following projects. The second phase has recently been concluded. The major features of this phase have been to greatly expand the network, put the network into clinical use, establish an efficient and useful viewing station, include diagnostic reports in the archive data, provide wide area network (WAN) capability via ISDN, and establish two-way real-time video between remote sites. This phase has heightened both departmental and institutional thought regarding various issues raised by electronic imaging. Much discussion regarding both present as well as future archival processes has occurred. The use of institutional LAN resources has proven to be adequate for the archival function examined thus far. Experiments to date have shown that use of dedicated resources will be necessary for retrieval activities at even a basic level. This report presents an overview of the background present status and future directions of the project.

Automated baseline change detection phase I. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-12-01

The Automated Baseline Change Detection (ABCD) project is supported by the DOE Morgantown Energy Technology Center (METC) as part of its ER&WM cross-cutting technology program in robotics. Phase 1 of the Automated Baseline Change Detection project is summarized in this topical report. The primary objective of this project is to apply robotic and optical sensor technology to the operational inspection of mixed toxic and radioactive waste stored in barrels, using Automated Baseline Change Detection (ABCD), based on image subtraction. Absolute change detection is based on detecting any visible physical changes, regardless of cause, between a current inspection image of a barrel and an archived baseline image of the same barrel. Thus, in addition to rust, the ABCD system can also detect corrosion, leaks, dents, and bulges. The ABCD approach and method rely on precise camera positioning and repositioning relative to the barrel and on feature recognition in images. In support of this primary objective, there are secondary objectives to determine DOE operational inspection requirements and DOE system fielding requirements.

Automated baseline change detection phase I. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-12-01

The Automated Baseline Change Detection (ABCD) project is supported by the DOE Morgantown Energy Technology Center (METC) as part of its ER ampersand WM cross-cutting technology program in robotics. Phase 1 of the Automated Baseline Change Detection project is summarized in this topical report. The primary objective of this project is to apply robotic and optical sensor technology to the operational inspection of mixed toxic and radioactive waste stored in barrels, using Automated Baseline Change Detection (ABCD), based on image subtraction. Absolute change detection is based on detecting any visible physical changes, regardless of cause, between a current inspection image of a barrel and an archived baseline image of the same barrel. Thus, in addition to rust, the ABCD system can also detect corrosion, leaks, dents, and bulges. The ABCD approach and method rely on precise camera positioning and repositioning relative to the barrel and on feature recognition in images. In support of this primary objective, there are secondary objectives to determine DOE operational inspection requirements and DOE system fielding requirements

Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Limanond, Thirayoot; Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj; Srikaew, Artit

2011-01-01

The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: → Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. → The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. → The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Limanond, Thirayoot, E-mail: tlimanond@yahoo.co [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Srikaew, Artit [School of Electrical Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand)

2011-05-15

The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: {yields} Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. {yields} The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. {yields} The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

Reservoir adaptive operating rules based on both of historical streamflow and future projections

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Chen, Jie; Lei, Xiaohui; Feng, Maoyuan

2017-10-01

Climate change is affecting hydrological variables and consequently is impacting water resources management. Historical strategies are no longer applicable under climate change. Therefore, adaptive management, especially adaptive operating rules for reservoirs, has been developed to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climate change. However, to date, adaptive operating rules are generally based on future projections involving uncertainties under climate change, yet ignoring historical information. To address this, we propose an approach for deriving adaptive operating rules considering both historical information and future projections, namely historical and future operating rules (HAFOR). A robustness index was developed by comparing benefits from HAFOR with benefits from conventional operating rules (COR). For both historical and future streamflow series, maximizations of both average benefits and the robustness index were employed as objectives, and four trade-offs were implemented to solve the multi-objective problem. Based on the integrated objective, the simulation-based optimization method was used to optimize the parameters of HAFOR. Using the Dongwushi Reservoir in China as a case study, HAFOR was demonstrated to be an effective and robust method for developing adaptive operating rules under the uncertain changing environment. Compared with historical or projected future operating rules (HOR or FPOR), HAFOR can reduce the uncertainty and increase the robustness for future projections, especially regarding results of reservoir releases and volumes. HAFOR, therefore, facilitates adaptive management in the context that climate change is difficult to predict accurately.

UAS Integration in the NAS Project and Future Autonomy Research

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Charles W.

2014-01-01

This presentation highlights NASA use of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and related technologies for civil purposes. This briefing will give more insight into the UAS projects progress and future goals.

Optimizing the financial structure and maximizing the future value of your generation project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arulampalam, G.; Letellier, M.

2004-01-01

This paper discusses ways of optimizing the financial structure and maximizing the future value of an electric power generation project. It outlines the project structure, the sponsor objectives, project finance lending criteria, project timeline, risk mitigation, bank and institutional financing, sponsor's role, impact of financing choices on project value, and impact of penalties and derivative products

Baseline correlates of inconsistent and incorrect condom use among sexually active women in the contraceptive CHOICE Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Shih, Shirley L; Kebodeaux, Chelsea A; Secura, Gina M; Allsworth, Jenifer E; Madden, Tessa; Peipert, Jeffrey F

2011-11-01

: To provide protection against sexually transmitted infections and pregnancy, condoms must be used consistently and correctly. However, a significant proportion of couples in the United States fail to do so. Our objective was to determine the demographic and behavioral correlates of inconsistent and incorrect condom use among sexually active, condom-using women. : Analysis of baseline data from a prospective cohort of sexually active, condom-using women in the Contraceptive CHOICE Project (n = 2087) using self-reported demographic and behavioral characteristics. Poisson regression was used to determine the relative risk of inconsistent and incorrect condom use after adjusting for variables significant in the univariate analysis. : Inconsistent and incorrect condom use was reported by 41% (n = 847) and 36% (n = 757) of women, respectively. A greater number of unprotected acts was most strongly associated with reporting 10 or more sex acts in the past 30 days, younger age at first intercourse, less perceived partner willingness to use condoms, and lower condom use self-efficacy. Incorrect condom use was associated with reporting 10 or more sex acts in the past 30 days, greater perceived risk for future STIs, and inconsistent condom use. : Inconsistent and incorrect condom use is common among sexually active women. Targeted educational efforts and prevention strategies should be implemented among women at highest risk for STIs and unintended pregnancies to increase consistent and correct condom use.

Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) and Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE): Conceptual Design Report. Volume 1: The LBNF and DUNE Projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acciarri, R. [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States); et al.

2016-01-22

This document presents the Conceptual Design Report (CDR) put forward by an international neutrino community to pursue the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment at the Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF/DUNE), a groundbreaking science experiment for long-baseline neutrino oscillation studies and for neutrino astrophysics and nucleon decay searches. The DUNE far detector will be a very large modular liquid argon time-projection chamber (LArTPC) located deep underground, coupled to the LBNF multi-megawatt wide-band neutrino beam. DUNE will also have a high-resolution and high-precision near detector.

Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) and Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) Conceptual Design Report Volume 1: The LBNF and DUNE Projects

CERN Document Server

Acciarri, R.; Adamowski, M.; Adams, C.; Adamson, P.; Adhikari, S.; Ahmad, Z.; Albright, C.H.; Alion, T.; Amador, E.; Anderson, J.; Anderson, K.; Andreopoulos, C.; Andrews, M.; Andrews, R.; Anghel, I.; Anjos, J. d.; Ankowski, A.; Antonello, M.; Aranda Fernandez, A.; Ariga, A.; Ariga, T.; Aristizabal, D.; Arrieta-Diaz, E.; Aryal, K.; Asaadi, J.; Asner, D.; Athar, M.S.; Auger, M.; Aurisano, A.; Aushev, V.; Autiero, D.; Avila, M.; Back, J.J.; Bai, X.; Baibussinov, B.; Baird, M.; Balantekin, B.; Baller, B.; Ballett, P.; Bambah, B.; Bansal, M.; Bansal, S.; Barker, G.J.; Barletta, W.A.; Barr, G.; Barros, N.; Bartosz, B.; Bartoszek, L.; Bashyal, A.; Bass, M.; Bay, F.; Beacom, J.; Behera, B.R.; Bellettini, G.; Bellini, V.; Beltramello, O.; Benekos, N.; Benetti, P.A.; Bercellie, A.; Bergevin, M.; Berman, E.; Berns, H.; Bernstein, R.; Bertolucci, S.; Bhandari, B.; Bhatnagar, V.; Bhuyan, B.; Bian, J.; Biery, K.; Bishai, M.; Blackburn, T.; Blake, A.; Blaszczyk, F. d. M.; Blaufuss, E.; Bleakley, B.; Blucher, E.; Bocean, V.; Boffelli, F.; Boissevain, J.; Bolognesi, S.; Bolton, T.; Bonesini, M.; Boone, T.; Booth, C.; Bordoni, S.; Borysova, M.; Bourguille, B.; Boyd, S.B.; Brailsford, D.; Brandt, A.; Bremer, J.; Brice, S.; Bromberg, C.; Brooijmans, G.; Brown, G.; Brown, R.; Brunetti, G.; Bu, X.; Buchanan, N.; Budd, H.; Bugg, B.; Calafiura, P.; Calligarich, E.; Calvo, E.; Camilleri, L.; Campanelli, M.; Cantini, C.; Carls, B.; Carr, R.; Cascella, M.; Castromonte, C.; Mur, E.Catano; Cavanna, F.; Centro, S.; Cervera Villanueva, A.; Chalifour, M.; Chandratre, V.B.; Chatterjee, A.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chaussard, L.; Chembra, S.; Chen, H.; Chen, K.; Chen, M.; Cherdack, D.; Chi, C.; Childress, S.; Choubey, S.; Choudhary, B.C.; Christodoulou, G.; Christofferson, C.; Church, E.; Cianci, D.; Cline, D.; Coan, T.; Cocco, A.; Coelho, J.; Cole, P.; Collin, G.; Conrad, J.M.; Convery, M.; Corey, R.; Corwin, L.; Cranshaw, J.; Crivelli, P.; Cronin-Hennessy, D.; Curioni, A.; Cushing, J.; Adams, D.L.; Dale, D.; Das, S.R.; Davenne, T.; Davies, G.S.; Davies, J.; Dawson, J.; De, K.; de Gouvea, A.; de Jong, J.K.; de Jong, P.; De Lurgio, P.; Decowski, M.; Delbart, A.; Densham, C.; Dharmapalan, R.; Dhingra, N.; Di Luise, S.; Diamantopoulou, M.; Diaz, J.S.; Diaz Bautista, G.; Diwan, M.; Djurcic, Z.; Dolph, J.; Drake, G.; Duchesneau, D.; Duvernois, M.; Duyang, H.; Dwyer, D.A.; Dye, S.; Dytman, S.; Eberly, B.; Edgecock, R.; Edmunds, D.; Elliott, S.; Elnimr, M.; Emery, S.; Endress, E.; Eno, S.; Ereditato, A.; Escobar, C.O.; Evans, J.; Falcone, A.; Falk, L.; Farbin, A.; Farnese, C.; Farzan, Y.; Fava, A.; Favilli, L.; Felde, J.; Felix, J.; Fernandes, S.; Fields, L.; Finch, A.; Fitton, M.; Fleming, B.; Forest, T.; Fowler, J.; Fox, W.; Fried, J.; Friedland, A.; Fuess, S.; Fujikawa, B.; Gago, A.; Gallagher, H.; Galymov, S.; Gamble, T.; Gandhi, R.; Garcia-Gamez, D.; Gardiner, S.; Garvey, G.; Gehman, V.M.; Gendotti, A.; Geronimo, G. d.; Ghag, C.; Ghoshal, P.; Gibin, D.; Gil-Botella, I.; Gill, R.; Girardelli, D.; Giri, A.; Glavin, S.; Goeldi, D.; Golapinni, S.; Gold, M.; Gomes, R.A.; Gomez Cadenas, J.J.; Goodman, M.C.; Gorbunov, D.; Goswami, S.; Graf, N.; Graf, N.; Graham, M.; Gramelini, E.; Gran, R.; Grant, C.; Grant, N.; Greco, V.; Greenlee, H.; Greenler, L.; Greenley, C.; Groh, M.; Grullon, S.; Grundy, T.; Grzelak, K.; Guardincerri, E.; Guarino, V.; Guarnaccia, E.; Guedes, G.P.; Guenette, R.; Guglielmi, A.; Habig, A.T.; Hackenburg, R.W.; Hackenburg, A.; Hadavand, H.; Haenni, R.; Hahn, A.; Haigh, M.D.; Haines, T.; Hamernik, T.; Handler, T.; Hans, S.; Harris, D.; Hartnell, J.; Hasegawa, T.; Hatcher, R.; Hatzikoutelis, A.; Hays, S.; Hazen, E.; Headley, M.; Heavey, A.; Heeger, K.; Heise, J.; Hennessy, K.; Hewes, J.; Higuera, A.; Hill, T.; Himmel, A.; Hogan, M.; Holanda, P.; Holin, A.; Honey, W.; Horikawa, S.; Horton-Smith, G.; Howard, B.; Howell, J.; Hurh, P.; Huston, J.; Hylen, J.; Imlay, R.; Insler, J.; Introzzi, G.; Ioanisyan, D.; Ioannisian, A.; Iwamoto, K.; Izmaylov, A.; Jackson, C.; Jaffe, D.E.; James, C.; James, E.; Jediny, F.; Jen, C.; Jhingan, A.; Jimenez, S.; Jo, J.H.; Johnson, M.; Johnson, R.; Johnstone, J.; Jones, B.J.; Joshi, J.; Jostlein, H.; Jung, C.K.; Junk, T.; Kaboth, A.; Kadel, R.; Kafka, T.; Kalousis, L.; Kamyshkov, Y.; Karagiorgi, G.; Karasavvas, D.; Karyotakis, Y.; Kaur, A.; Kaur, P.; Kayser, B.; Kazaryan, N.; Kearns, E.; Keener, P.; Kemboi, S.; Kemp, E.; Kettell, S.H.; Khabibullin, M.; Khandaker, M.; Khotjantsev, A.; Kirby, B.; Kirby, M.; Klein, J.; Kobilarcik, T.; Kohn, S.; Koizumi, G.; Kopylov, A.; Kordosky, M.; Kormos, L.; Kose, U.; Kostelecky, A.; Kramer, M.; Kreslo, I.; Kriske, R.; Kropp, W.; Kudenko, Y.; Kudryavtsev, V.A.; Kulagin, S.; Kumar, A.; Kumar, G.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kutter, T.; Laminack, A.; Lande, K.; Lane, C.; Lang, K.; Lanni, F.; Learned, J.; Lebrun, P.; Lee, D.; Lee, H.; Lee, K.; Lee, W.M.; Leigui de Oliveira, M.A.; Li, Q.; Li, S.; Li, S.; Li, X.; Li, Y.; Li, Z.; Libo, J.; Lin, C.S.; Lin, S.; Ling, J.; Link, J.; Liptak, Z.; Lissauer, D.; Littenberg, L.; Littlejohn, B.; Liu, Q.; Liu, T.; Lockwitz, S.; Lockyer, N.; Loew, T.; Lokajicek, M.; Long, K.; Lopes, M.D.L.; Lopez, J.P.; Losecco, J.; Louis, W.; Lowery, J.; Luethi, M.; Luk, K.; Lundberg, B.; Lundin, T.; Luo, X.; Lux, T.; Lykken, J.; Machado, A.A.; Macier, J.R.; Magill, S.; Mahler, G.; Mahn, K.; Malek, M.; Malhotra, S.; Malon, D.; Mammoliti, F.; Mancina, S.; Mandal, S.K.; Mandodi, S.; Manly, S.L.; Mann, A.; Marchionni, A.; Marciano, W.; Mariani, C.; Maricic, J.; Marino, A.; Marshak, M.; Marshall, C.; Marshall, J.; Marteau, J.; Martin-Albo, J.; Martinez, D.; Matsuno, S.; Matthews, J.; Mauger, C.; Mavrokoridis, K.; Mayilyan, D.; Mazzucato, E.; McCauley, N.; McCluskey, E.; McConkey, N.; McDonald, K.; McFarland, K.S.; McGowan, A.M.; McGrew, C.; McKeown, R.; McNulty, D.; McTaggart, R.; Mefodiev, A.; Mehrian, M.; Mehta, P.; Mei, D.; Mena, O.; Menary, S.; Mendez, H.; Menegolli, A.; Meng, G.; Meng, Y.; Mertins, D.; Merritt, H.; Messier, M.; Metcalf, W.; Mewes, M.; Meyer, H.; Miao, T.; Milincic, R.; Miller, W.; Mills, G.; Mineev, O.; Miranda, O.; Mishra, C.S.; Mishra, S.R.; Mitrica, B.; Mladenov, D.; Mocioiu, I.; Mohanta, R.; Mokhov, N.; Montanari, C.; Montanari, D.; Moon, J.; Mooney, M.; Moore, C.; Morfin, J.; Morgan, B.; Morris, C.; Morse, W.; Moss, Z.; Mossey, C.; Moura, C.A.; Mousseau, J.; Mualem, L.; Muether, M.; Mufson, S.; Murphy, S.; Musser, J.; Musser, R.; Nakajima, Y.; Naples, D.; Napolitano, J.; Navarro, J.; Navas, D.; Nelson, J.; Nessi, M.; Newcomer, M.; Ng, Y.; Nichol, R.; Nicholls, T.C.; Nikolics, K.; Niner, E.; Norris, B.; Noto, F.; Novakova, P.; Novella, P.; Nowak, J.; Nunes, M.S.; O'Keeffe, H.; Oldeman, R.; Oliveira, R.; Olson, T.; Onishchuk, Y.; Osta, J.; Ovsjannikova, T.; Page, B.; Pakvasa, S.; Pal, S.; Palamara, O.; Palazzo, A.; Paley, J.; Palomares, C.; Pantic, E.; Paolone, V.; Papadimitriou, V.; Park, J.; Parke, S.; Parsa, Z.; Pascoli, S.; Patterson, R.; Patton, S.; Patzak, T.; Paulos, B.; Paulucci, L.; Pavlovic, Z.; Pawloski, G.; Peeters, S.; Pennacchio, E.; Perch, A.; Perdue, G.N.; Periale, L.; Perkin, J.D.; Pessard, H.; Petrillo, G.; Petti, R.; Petukhov, A.; Pietropaolo, F.; Plunkett, R.; Pordes, S.; Potekhin, M.; Potenza, R.; Potukuchi, B.; Poudyal, N.; Prokofiev, O.; Pruthi, N.; Przewlocki, P.; Pushka, D.; Qian, X.; Raaf, J.L.; Raboanary, R.; Radeka, V.; Radovic, A.; Raffelt, G.; Rakhno, I.; Rakotondramanana, H.T.; Rakotondravohitra, L.; Ramachers, Y.A.; Rameika, R.; Ramsey, J.; Rappoldi, A.; Raselli, G.; Ratoff, P.; Rebel, B.; Regenfus, C.; Reichenbacher, J.; Reitzner, D.; Remoto, A.; Renshaw, A.; Rescia, S.; Richardson, M.; Rielage, K.; Riesselmann, K.; Robinson, M.; Rochester, L.; Rodrigues, O.B.; Rodrigues, P.; Roe, B.; Rosen, M.; Roser, R.M.; Ross-Lonergan, M.; Rossella, M.; Rubbia, A.; Rubbia, C.; Rucinski, R.; von Rohr, C.Rudolph; Russell, B.; Ruterbories, D.; Saakyan, R.; Sahu, N.; Sala, P.; Samios, N.; Sanchez, F.; Sanchez, M.; Sands, B.; Santana, S.; Santorelli, R.; Santucci, G.; Saoulidou, N.; Scaramelli, A.; Schellman, H.; Schlabach, P.; Schmitt, R.; Schmitz, D.; Schneps, J.; Scholberg, K.; Schukraft, A.; Schwehr, J.; Segreto, E.; Seibert, S.; Sepulveda-Quiroz, J.A.; Sergiampietri, F.; Sexton-Kennedy, L.; Sgalaberna, D.; Shaevitz, M.; Shahi, J.; Shahsavarani, S.; Shanahan, P.; Shankar, S.U.; Sharma, R.; Sharma, R.K.; Shaw, T.; Shrock, R.; Shyrma, I.; Simos, N.; Sinev, G.; Singh, I.; Singh, J.; Singh, J.; Singh, V.; Sinnis, G.; Sippach, W.; Smargianaki, D.; Smy, M.; Snider, E.; Snopok, P.; Sobczyk, J.; Sobel, H.; Soderberg, M.; Solomey, N.; Sondheim, W.; Sorel, M.; Sousa, A.; Soustruznik, K.; Spitz, J.; Spooner, N.J.; Stancari, M.; Stancu, I.; Stefan, D.; Steiner, H.M.; Stewart, J.; Stock, J.; Stoica, S.; Stone, J.; Strait, J.; Strait, M.; Strauss, T.; Striganov, S.; Sulej, R.; Sullivan, G.; Sun, Y.; Suter, L.; Sutera, C.M.; Svoboda, R.; Szczerbinska, B.; Szelc, A.; Soldner-Rembold, S.; Talaga, R.; Tamsett, M.; Tariq, S.; Tatar, E.; Tayloe, R.; Taylor, C.; Taylor, D.; Terao, K.; Thiesse, M.; Thomas, J.; Thompson, L.F.; Thomson, M.; Thorn, C.; Thorpe, M.; Tian, X.; Tiedt, D.; Timm, S.C.; Tonazzo, A.; Tope, T.; Topkar, A.; Torres, F.R.; Torti, M.; Tortola, M.; Tortorici, F.; Toups, M.; Touramanis, C.; Tripathi, M.; Tropin, I.; Tsai, Y.; Tsang, K.V.; Tsenov, R.; Tufanli, S.; Tull, C.; Turner, J.; Tzanov, M.; Tziaferi, E.; Uchida, Y.; Urheim, J.; Usher, T.; Vagins, M.; Vahle, P.; Valdiviesso, G.A.; Valerio, L.; Vallari, Z.; Valle, J.; Van Berg, R.; Van de Water, R.; Van Gemmeren, P.; Varanini, F.; Varner, G.; Vasseur, G.; Vaziri, K.; Velev, G.; Ventura, S.; Verdugo, A.; Viant, T.; Vieira, T.V.; Vignoli, C.; Vilela, C.; Viren, B.; Vrba, T.; Wachala, T.; Wahl, D.; Wallbank, M.; Walsh, N.; Wang, B.; Wang, H.; Wang, L.; Wang, T.; Warburton, T.K.; Warner, D.; Wascko, M.; Waters, D.; Watson, T.B.; Weber, A.; Weber, M.; Wei, W.; Weinstein, A.; Wells, D.; Wenman, D.; Wetstein, M.; White, A.; Whitehead, L.; Whittington, D.; Wilking, M.; Willhite, J.; Wilson, P.; Wilson, R.J.; Winslow, L.; Wittich, P.; Wojcicki, S.; Wong, H.H.; Wood, K.; Worcester, E.; Worcester, M.; Wu, S.; Xin, T.; Yanagisawa, C.; Yang, S.; Yang, T.; Yarritu, K.; Ye, J.; Yeh, M.; Yershov, N.; Yonehara, K.; Yu, B.; Yu, J.; Zalesak, J.; Zalewska, A.; Zamorano, B.; Zang, L.; Zani, A.; Zani, A.; Zavala, G.; Zeller, G.; Zhang, C.; Zhang, C.; Zimmerman, E.D.; Zito, M.; Zwaska, R.

2016-01-01

This document presents the Conceptual Design Report (CDR) put forward by an international neutrino community to pursue the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment at the Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF/DUNE), a groundbreaking science experiment for long-baseline neutrino oscillation studies and for neutrino astrophysics and nucleon decay searches. The DUNE far detector will be a very large modular liquid argon time-projection chamber (LArTPC) located deep underground, coupled to the LBNF multi-megawatt wide-band neutrino beam. DUNE will also have a high-resolution and high-precision near detector.

The Baselines Project: Establishing Reference Environmental Conditions for Marine Habitats in the Gulf of Mexico using Forecast Models and Satellite Data

Science.gov (United States)

Jolliff, J. K.; Gould, R. W.; deRada, S.; Teague, W. J.; Wijesekera, H. W.

2012-12-01

We provide an overview of the NASA-funded project, "High-Resolution Subsurface Physical and Optical Property Fields in the Gulf of Mexico: Establishing Baselines and Assessment Tools for Resource Managers." Data assimilative models, analysis fields, and multiple satellite data streams were used to construct temperature and photon flux climatologies for the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary (FGBNMS) and similar habitats in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico where geologic features provide a platform for unique coral reef ecosystems. Comparison metrics of the products to in situ data collected during complimentary projects are also examined. Similarly, high-resolution satellite-data streams and advanced processing techniques were used to establish baseline suspended sediment load and turbidity conditions in selected northern Gulf of Mexico estuaries. The results demonstrate the feasibility of blending models and data into accessible web-based analysis products for resource managers, policy makers, and the public.

Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Zongci Zhao

2011-01-01

@@ As we know,the projections of future climate change including impacts and strategies in the IPCC Assessment Reports were based on global climate models with scenarios on various human activities.Global climate model simulations provide key inputs for climate change assessments. In this study,the main objective is to analyze if the projections of fu-ture climate change by global climate models are reli-able.Several workshops have been held on this issue,such as the IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi-model climate projections in January of 2010 (presided by the co-chairs of the IPCC WGI and WGII AR5),and the workshop of the combined global climate model group held by NCAR in June of 2010.

The sustainable project management: A review and future possibilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V.K. Chawla

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Sustainability in project operations such as financial, social and environmental sustainability is one of the most prominent issues of the present times to address. The increased focus on sus-tainable business operations has changed the viewpoint of researchers and corporate community towards the project management. Today sustainability in business operations along with sustain-ability of natural and environmental resources are of paramount significance which has further caused a huge impact on conception, planning, scheduling and execution of the project manage-ment activities. In this paper, a literature review between 1987 and 2018 on different issues af-fecting the sustainability in project management is carried out. The present study also identifies and discusses the future possibilities to apply computational procedures in order to estimate and optimize the sustainability issues in the management of projects, for example the computational evolutionary algorithms can be applied to formulate the multi-objective decision-making problem after considering critical factors of sustainability in the projects and then yielding optimized solu-tions for the formulated problem to achieve sustainability in the projects. A new integrated framework with the inclusion of feedback function for assessment of each decision and actions taken towards the sustainability of the projects is also identified and presented.

Projected climate change futures for Southern Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Tadross, M

2017-10-01

Full Text Available of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa. In these experiments, a variable-resolution atmospheric global circulation model, CCAM, was applied as a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate both present-day and future climate... climate projection Observed climate RCM Climate forcing Climate simulation Statistical downscaling Dynamical downscaling 22 | Second Edition There are four pathways – RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. RCP 2.6 describes a scenario of very low...

UPDATING THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF PROJECT EDUCATION TECHNOLOGY IN FUTURE MUSIC TEACHERS’ VOCAL AND CHORAL TRAINING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liang Haiye

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to characterizing features of implementing project technology into future music teachers’ vocal and choral training. The analysis of scientific papers of outstanding scientists in philosophy, psychology, and art education, which deal with modern directions of using project technology, highlight its role in art education process. A methodological base is supported by considering contemporary scientific researches, in particular the theory and methodology of musical studies in accordance with forming students’ independence in the process of solving educational problems by means of project technology; developing principles of students’ professional training optimization on the basis of project activity; innovative development of future music teachers’ professional training that gives to the presented material novelty and presentable appearance. Studying future music teachers’ vocal and choral training as a process of constructing that has a special purpose of improving the quality descriptions of educational vocal and choral collective sound functioning, the author of the article discloses the basic principles of implementing project technology into future music teachers’ vocal and choral training. The author of the article pays the special attention to revealing specific features and maintenance of project technology in vocal and choral training of future leaders of child's art groups. An emphasis is made on the following basic factors that influence development of students’ creative individuality: constructing projects of their own becoming; setting aims, tasks, strategies and facilities of vocal and choral work; directing to the result; independent creative activity; presentation, reflection and correction of a project. On the basis of the obtained data the following principles of project technology are put forward in future music teachers’ vocal and choral training: principle of independence; principle of

48 CFR 34.202 - Integrated Baseline Reviews.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... or contractor, and the Government, of the— (1) Ability of the project's technical plan to achieve the... successfully achieve the project schedule objectives; (3) Ability of the Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB... SPECIAL CATEGORIES OF CONTRACTING MAJOR SYSTEM ACQUISITION Earned Value Management System 34.202...

Breckinridge Project, initial effort. Report VII, Volume II. Environmental baseline report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1982-01-01

Ashland Synthetic Fuels, Inc. (ASFI) and Airco Energy Company, Inc. (AECI) have recently formed the Breckinridge Project and are currently conducting a process and economic feasibility study of a commercial scale facility to produce synthetic liquid fuels from coal. The coal conversion process to be used is the H-COAL process, which is in the pilot plant testing stage under the auspices of the US Department of Energy at the H-COAL Pilot Plant Project near Catlettsburg, Kentucky. The preliminary plans for the commercial plant are for a 18,140 metric ton/day (24,000 ton/day) nominal coal assumption capacity utilizing the abundant high sulfur Western Kentucky coals. The Western Kentucky area offers a source of the coal along with adequate water, power, labor, transportation and other factors critical to the successful siting of a plant. Various studies by federal and state governments, as well as private industry, have reached similar conclusions regarding the suitability of such plant sites in western Kentucky. Of the many individual sites evaluated, a site in Breckinridge County, Kentucky, approximately 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) west of the town of Stephensport, has been identified as the plant location. Actions have been taken to obtain options to insure that this site will be available when needed. This report contains an overview of the regional setting and results of the baseline environmental studies. These studies include collection of data on ambient air and water quality, sound, aquatic and terrestrial biology and geology. This report contains the following chapters; introduction, review of significant findings, ambient air quality monitoring, sound, aquatic ecology, vegetation, wildlife, geology, soils, surface water, and ground water.

Projecting land-use and land cover change in a subtropical urban watershed

Science.gov (United States)

John J. Lagrosa IV; Wayne C. Zipperer; Michael G. Andreu

2018-01-01

Urban landscapes are heterogeneous mosaics that develop via significant land-use and land cover (LULC) change. Current LULC models project future landscape patterns, but generally avoid urban landscapes due to heterogeneity. To project LULC change for an urban landscape, we parameterize an established LULC model (Dyna-CLUE) under baseline conditions (continued current...

Revealing, Reducing, and Representing Uncertainties in New Hydrologic Projections for Climate-changed Futures

Science.gov (United States)

Arnold, Jeffrey; Clark, Martyn; Gutmann, Ethan; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Rasmussen, Roy

2016-04-01

The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has had primary responsibility for multi-purpose water resource operations on most of the major river systems in the U.S. for more than 200 years. In that time, the USACE projects and programs making up those operations have proved mostly robust against the range of natural climate variability encountered over their operating life spans. However, in some watersheds and for some variables, climate change now is known to be shifting the hydroclimatic baseline around which that natural variability occurs and changing the range of that variability as well. This makes historical stationarity an inappropriate basis for assessing continued project operations under climate-changed futures. That means new hydroclimatic projections are required at multiple scales to inform decisions about specific threats and impacts, and for possible adaptation responses to limit water-resource vulnerabilities and enhance operational resilience. However, projections of possible future hydroclimatologies have myriad complex uncertainties that require explicit guidance for interpreting and using them to inform those decisions about climate vulnerabilities and resilience. Moreover, many of these uncertainties overlap and interact. Recent work, for example, has shown the importance of assessing the uncertainties from multiple sources including: global model structure [Meehl et al., 2005; Knutti and Sedlacek, 2013]; internal climate variability [Deser et al., 2012; Kay et al., 2014]; climate downscaling methods [Gutmann et al., 2012; Mearns et al., 2013]; and hydrologic models [Addor et al., 2014; Vano et al., 2014; Mendoza et al., 2015]. Revealing, reducing, and representing these uncertainties is essential for defining the plausible quantitative climate change narratives required to inform water-resource decision-making. And to be useful, such quantitative narratives, or storylines, of climate change threats and hydrologic impacts must sample

Project as a System and its Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiří Skalický

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The contribution aims to describe project as a system, to define project control goal and strategy, control variables and their relationships. Three common control variables represented by the project triangle, are extended by two other important variables – project risk and quality. The control system consists of two components: social one – project manager and project team – and technical one – project dynamic simulation model as a decision making support of project manager in project milestones. In the project planning phase, the project baseline with planned controlled variables is created. In milestones after project launch, the actual values of these variables are measured. If the actual values deviate from planned ones, corrective actions are proposed and new baseline for the following control interval is created. Project plan takes into account the actual project progress and optimum corrective actions are determined by simulation, respecting control strategy and availability of resources. The contribution presents list of references to articles dealing with project as a system and its simulation. In most cases, they refer to the project control using the Earned Value Management method and its derivatives. Using of the dynamic simulation model for project monitoring and control, suggested in this contribution, presents a novel approach. The proposed model can serve as departure point to future research of authors and for development of appropriate and applicable tool.

Interhemispheric Temperature Asymmetry in Historical Observations and Future Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, A. R.; Hwang, Y.; Chiang, J. C.; Frierson, D. M.

2013-12-01

The surface temperature contrast between the northern and southern hemispheres -- the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry (ITA) -- is an emerging indicator of global climate change, especially relevant to the latitude of the tropical rain bands. We investigate the ITA over historical observations and in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations and future projections. We find that the uneven spatial impacts of greenhouse gas forcing cause amplified warming in the Arctic and northern landmasses, resulting in an increase of the ITA. However, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, which are disproportionately emitted in the northern hemisphere, masked these effects on the ITA until around 1980. The implementation of air pollution regulations in North America and Europe combined with increased global emissions of greenhouse gases have resulted in a significant positive ITA trend since 1980. The CMIP5 historical multimodel ensembles simulate this positive ITA trend, though not its full magnitude. We explore how natural variability may account for some of the differences between the simulated and observed ITA. Future simulations project a substantial increase of the ITA over the twenty-first century, well outside its twentieth-century variability. This is largely in response to continued greenhouse gas emissions, though anthropogenic aerosol emissions are also important in some scenarios. We discuss the potential implications of this northern warming in causing a northward shift in tropical rainfall.

The Effect of Future Ambient Air Pollution on Human Premature Mortality to 2100 Using Output from the ACCMIP Model Ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya;

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. A. Silva

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5 is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs, the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry–climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths year−1, likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382 000 (121 000 to 728 000 deaths year−1 in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths year−1 in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios

Long baseline neutrino oscillation experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallagher, H.

2006-01-01

In this paper I will review briefly the experimental results which established the existence of neutrino mixing, the current generation of long baseline accelerator experiments, and the prospects for the future. In particular I will focus on the recent analysis of the MINOS experiment. (author)

Future Projection of Droughts over South Korea Using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Byung Sik Kim

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, a method widely used to analyze droughts related to climate change, does not consider variables related to temperature and is limited because it cannot consider changes in hydrological balance, such as evapotranspiration from climate change. If we were to consider only the future increase in precipitation from climate change, droughts may decrease. However, because usable water can diminish from an increase in evapotranspiration, it is important to research on projected droughts considering the amount of evapotranspiration along with projecting and evaluating potential droughts considering the impact of climate change. As such, this study evaluated the occurrence of droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI as a newly conceptualized drought index that is similar to SPI but includes the temperature variability. We extracted simulated future precipitation and temperature data (2011 - 2099 from the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP climate change scenario of IPCC AR5 to evaluate the impact of future climate change on the occurrence of droughts of South Korea. We analyzed the ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation of meteorological observatories nationwide. In addition, we calculated the SPEI related to drought in the process to evaluate the future occurrence of droughts of South Korea. To confirm validity of SPEI results, extreme indices were analyzed. This resulted in the notion that as we go further into the future, the precipitation increases. But because of an increase in evapotranspiration also from a rise in temperature and continued dryness, the severity of droughts is projected to exacerbate.

IEA Wind Task 26: Offshore Wind Farm Baseline Documentation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smart, Gavin [Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult, Blyth, Northumberland (United Kingdom); Smith, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Warner, Ethan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sperstad, Iver Bakken [SINTEF Energy Research, Trondheim (Norway); Prinsen, Bob [Ecofys, Utrecht (Netherlands). TKI Wind Op Zee; Lacal-Arantegui, Roberto [European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), Brussels (Belgium)

2016-06-02

This document has been produced to provide the definition and rationale for the Baseline Offshore Wind Farm established within IEA Wind Task 26--Cost of Wind Energy. The Baseline has been developed to provide a common starting point for country comparisons and sensitivity analysis on key offshore wind cost and value drivers. The baseline project reflects an approximate average of the characteristics of projects installed between 2012 and 2014, with the project life assumed to be 20 years. The baseline wind farm is located 40 kilometres (km) from construction and operations and maintenance (O&M) ports and from export cable landfall. The wind farm consists of 100 4-megawatt (MW) wind turbines mounted on monopile foundations in an average water depth of 25 metres (m), connected by 33-kilovolt (kV) inter-array cables. The arrays are connected to a single offshore substation (33kV/220kV) mounted on a jacket foundation, with the substation connected via a single 220kV export cable to an onshore substation, 10km from landfall. The wind farm employs a port-based O&M strategy using crew-transfer vessels.

Physics Potential of Long-Baseline Experiments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanjib Kumar Agarwalla

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The discovery of neutrino mixing and oscillations over the past decade provides firm evidence for new physics beyond the Standard Model. Recently, θ13 has been determined to be moderately large, quite close to its previous upper bound. This represents a significant milestone in establishing the three-flavor oscillation picture of neutrinos. It has opened up exciting prospects for current and future long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments towards addressing the remaining fundamental questions, in particular the type of the neutrino mass hierarchy and the possible presence of a CP-violating phase. Another recent and crucial development is the indication of non-maximal 2-3 mixing angle, causing the octant ambiguity of θ23. In this paper, I will review the phenomenology of long-baseline neutrino oscillations with a special emphasis on sub-leading three-flavor effects, which will play a crucial role in resolving these unknowns. First, I will give a brief description of neutrino oscillation phenomenon. Then, I will discuss our present global understanding of the neutrino mass-mixing parameters and will identify the major unknowns in this sector. After that, I will present the physics reach of current generation long-baseline experiments. Finally, I will conclude with a discussion on the physics capabilities of accelerator-driven possible future long-baseline precision oscillation facilities.

Description of the global petroleum supply and demand outlook. Updated for the 1992 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dreyfus, D.A.; Koklauner, A.B.

1991-11-01

The global oil trade is still in surplus production with downward pressure on prices just as in early 1990. The current oil price situation includes three major new factors which need to be taken into account: the outlook for the restoration of production capacity lost from the war; the impact of events in the Soviet Union and former Eastern block; and, the effect changed financial circumstances of the major Middle Eastern producers will have on pricing in the future. The net effect appears to be adequate or excess production capability for the next several years, volatile prices in the near term, with general downward pressures resulting in relative lower average prices. In the longer term there will be an increasing demand requirement for aggressive investment in new capacity resulting in relatively steep escalation in prices. The oil price track used for this projection is essentially the same as in the last two GRI Baseline Projections. The U.S. refiners acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil is expected to increase at an overall real average rate of 2.3 percent, reaching $36.84 per barrel in 1991 dollars and $83.30 in nominal dollars in the year 2010

Exploring non standard physics in long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chatterjee, Sabya Sachi

2015-01-01

After the recent discovery of large th ( 13), the focus has been shifted to address the remaining fundamental issues like neutrino mass ordering and CP-violation in leptonic sector. Future proposed Long-Baseline facilities like DUNE (1300 km baseline from FNAL to Homestake) and LBNO (2290 km baseline from CERN to Pyhasalmi) are well suited to address these issues at high confidence level. Not only to the standard framework, these experiments are highly capable to look for some new physics beyond the Standard Model scenario. In this work, we explore whether these high precision future facilities are sensitive to new U(1) global symmetries and upto which confidence level. (author)

Aurora Mine project - historical resources baseline study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reeves, B.

1996-01-01

This volume contains the results of a base line archaeological study of the Aurora Mine Project local study area. It was compiled in support of Syncrude Canada's application to the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (AEUB) and Alberta Environmental Protection to construct and operate it new Aurora Mine, located northeast of Fort McMurray, Alberta. The objective of this study was to compile, consolidate, review and analyze the reports for the area compiled over the past 22 years in and adjacent to the local study area (LSA), particularly those of now existing and Syncrude projects, and previously proposed Alsands and OSLO projects. The report is a summary of the human history in the area including pre-contact native archaeological sites, past archaeological studies, the Hinterland site pattern, post-contact native traditional sites, oil sands exploration/development related sites and paleontological sites in the subject area, and areas adjacent to it. 150 refs., 5 tabs., 43 figs

Environmental baselines: preparing for shale gas in the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Bloomfield, John; Manamsa, Katya; Bell, Rachel; Darling, George; Dochartaigh, Brighid O.; Stuart, Marianne; Ward, Rob

2014-05-01

Groundwater is a vital source of freshwater in the UK. It provides almost 30% of public water supply on average, but locally, for example in south-east England, it is constitutes nearly 90% of public supply. In addition to public supply, groundwater has a number of other uses including agriculture, industry, and food and drink production. It is also vital for maintaining river flows especially during dry periods and so is essential for maintaining ecosystem health. Recently, there have been concerns expressed about the potential impacts of shale gas development on groundwater. The UK has abundant shales and clays which are currently the focus of considerable interest and there is active research into their characterisation, resource evaluation and exploitation risks. The British Geological Survey (BGS) is undertaking research to provide information to address some of the environmental concerns related to the potential impacts of shale gas development on groundwater resources and quality. The aim of much of this initial work is to establish environmental baselines, such as a baseline survey of methane occurrence in groundwater (National methane baseline study) and the spatial relationships between potential sources and groundwater receptors (iHydrogeology project), prior to any shale gas exploration and development. The poster describes these two baseline studies and presents preliminary findings. BGS are currently undertaking a national survey of baseline methane concentrations in groundwater across the UK. This work will enable any potential future changes in methane in groundwater associated with shale gas development to be assessed. Measurements of methane in potable water from the Cretaceous, Jurassic and Triassic carbonate and sandstone aquifers are variable and reveal methane concentrations of up to 500 micrograms per litre, but the mean value is relatively low at documented in the range 2km. The geological modelling process will be presented and discussed

Projections on the future of the natural uranium industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishido, Akio

1995-01-01

This discussion looks at the future of the uranium industry and considers what type of procurement policy should be adopted. Viewing the future as an extension of the present, it is possible that supplies of natural uranium will begin to run short around 2015. However, natural uranium will have more resources available than petroleum. If rising uranium prices reinvigorate exploration and lead to the discovery of new uranium deposits, future shortages will be unlikely. Nonetheless, with structural changes expected in the world economy, the nature of natural uranium transactions will no doubt change, thereby increasing the present element of uncertainty that much more. At the same time, the oligopolistic situation created by today's major producers will intensify. Based on these projections, the author has reassessed Japan's past procurement policy of government exploration/development support combined with private-sector uranium purchasing and finds this shared risk approach to be the best. (author)

Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program Cost and Schedule Baseline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-09-01

The purpose of this document is to establish quantitative expressions of proposed costs and schedule to serve as a basis for measurement of program performance. It identifies the components of the Program Cost and Schedule Baseline (PCSB) that will be subject to change control by the Executive (Level 0) and Program (Level 1) Change Control Boards (CCBS) and establishes their baseline values. This document also details PCSB reporting, monitoring, and corrective action requirements. The Program technical baseline contained in the Waste Management System Description (WMSD), the Waste Management System Requirements (WMSR), and the Physical System Requirements documents provide the technical basis for the PCSB. Changes to the PCSB will be approved by the Pregrain Change Control Board (PCCB)In addition to the PCCB, the Energy System Acquisition Advisory Board Baseline CCB (ESAAB BCCB) will perform control functions relating to Total Project Cost (TPC) and major schedule milestones for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project and the Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) Project

Future projects of light kaonic atom X-ray spectroscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tatsuno, H.; Bazzi, M.; Beer, G.; Bellotti, G.; Berucci, C.; Bragadireanu, A.M.; Bosnar, D.; Cargnelli, M.; Curceanu, C.; Butt, A.D.; D’Uffizi, A.; Fiorini, C.; Ghio, F.; Guaraldo, C.; Hayano, R.S.; Iliescu, M.; Ishiwatari, T.; Iwasaki, M.; Sandri, P. Levi; Marton, J.; Okada, S.; Pietreanu, D.; Piscicchia, K.; Vidal, A. Romero; Sbardella, E.; Scordo, A.; Shi, H.; Sirghi, D.L.; Sirghi, F.; Doce, O. Vazquez; Widmann, E.; Zmeskal, J.

2016-01-01

X-ray spectroscopy of light kaonic atoms is a unique tool to provide precise information on the fundamental K̄N interaction at the low-energy limit and the in-medium nuclear interaction of K"−. The future experiments of kaonic deuterium strong-interaction shift and width (SIDDHARTA-2 and J-PARC E57) can extract the isospin dependent K"−N interaction at threshold. The high-resolution X-ray spectroscopy of kaonic helium with microcalorimeters (J-PARC E62) has the possibility to solve the long-standing potential-strength problem of the attractive K"−-nucleus interaction. Here, the recent experimental results and the future projects of X-ray spectroscopy of light kaonic atoms are presented.

Projecting the self into the future in individuals with schizophrenia: a preliminary cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Raffard, Stéphane; Bortolon, Catherine; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Gardes, Jeanne; Gely-Nargeot, Marie-Christine; Capdevielle, Delphine; Van der Linden, Martial

2016-07-01

The ability to project oneself into the future contributes to development and maintenance of a coherent sense of identity. If recent research has revealed that schizophrenia is associated with difficulties envisioning the future, little is known about patients' future self-representations. In this study, 27 participants with schizophrenia and 26 healthy controls were asked to simulate mental representations of plausible and highly significant future events (self-defining future projections, SDFPs) that they anticipate to happen in their personal future. Main results showed that schizophrenia patients had difficulties in reflecting on the broader meaning and implications of imagined future events. In addition, and contrary to our hypothesis, a large majority of SDFPs in schizophrenia patients were positive events, including achievements, relationship, and leisure contents. Interestingly, patients and controls did not differ on the perceived probability that these events will occur in the future. Our results suggest that schizophrenia patients have an exaggerated positive perception of their future selves. Together, these findings lend support to the idea that past and future self-defining representations have both similar and distinct characteristics in schizophrenia.

Virtual Mockup test based on computational science and engineering. Near future technology projected by JSPS-RFTFADVENTURE project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshimura, Shinobu

2001-01-01

The ADVENTURE project began on August, 1997, as a project in the computational science' field of JSPS-RFTFADVENTURE project, and is progressed as five year project. In this project, by using versatile parallel computer environment such as PC cluster, super parallel computer, and so on , to solve an arbitrary shape of actual dynamical equation by using 10 to 100 million freedom class mode under maintaining a general use analytical capacity agreeable with present general use computational mechanics system, further development of a large-scale parallel computational mechanics system (ADVENTURE system) capable of carrying out an optimization design on shapes, physical properties, loading conditions, and so on is performed. Here was scoped, after outlining on background of R and D on ADVENTURE system and its features, on near future virtual mockup test forecast from it. (G.K.)

JPL Project Information Management: A Continuum Back to the Future

Science.gov (United States)

Reiz, Julie M.

2009-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the practices and architecture that support information management at JPL. This practice has allowed concurrent use and reuse of information by primary and secondary users. The use of this practice is illustrated in the evolution of the Mars Rovers from the Mars Pathfinder to the development of the Mars Science Laboratory. The recognition of the importance of information management during all phases of a project life cycle has resulted in the design of an information system that includes metadata, has reduced the risk of information loss through the use of an in-process appraisal, shaping of project's appreciation for capturing and managing the information on one project for re-use by future projects as a natural outgrowth of the process. This process has also assisted in connection of geographically disbursed partners into a team through sharing information, common tools and collaboration.

Detailed Load Analysis of the baseline 5MW DeepWind Concept

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Verelst, David Robert; Aagaard Madsen, Helge; Kragh, Knud Abildgaard

This report presents an overview of the design of the DeepWind vertical axis oating wind turbine. One could present this as the "nal design", however, it is hoped that more design iterations will follow in the future, but under the umbrella of new and dierent projects. The state of the design...... that is reported here will be called version 2.2.0. The numbering system has just been introduced at the present design version, but the rst 5MW design called the "baseline design" [1] was developed in 2011 and this will therefore be called version 1.0.0. In this report, the design loads of the DeepWind 5 MW...

The impact of ageing and changing utilization patterns on future cardiovascular drug expenditure: a pharmacoepidemiological projection approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kildemoes, Helle Wallach; Andersen, Morten; Støvring, Henrik

2010-01-01

To develop a method for projecting the impact of ageing and changing drug utilization patterns on future drug expenditure.......To develop a method for projecting the impact of ageing and changing drug utilization patterns on future drug expenditure....

Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de, E-mail: fabio@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Nuclear and Engineering Center; Imakuma, Kengo, E-mail: kimakuma@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Information Technology Development Dept.

2011-07-01

This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de; Imakuma, Kengo

2011-01-01

This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

Solid Waste Program technical baseline description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carlson, A.B.

1994-07-01

The system engineering approach has been taken to describe the technical baseline under which the Solid Waste Program is currently operating. The document contains a mission analysis, function analysis, system definition, documentation requirements, facility and project bases, and uncertainties facing the program.

A stakeholder project to model water temperature under future climate scenarios in the Satus and Toppenish watersheds of the Yakima River Basinin Washington, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Graves, D.; Maule, A.

2014-01-01

The goal of this study was to support an assessment of the potential effects of climate change on select natural, social, and economic resources in the Yakima River Basin. A workshop with local stakeholders highlighted the usefulness of projecting climate change impacts on anadromous steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a fish species of importance to local tribes, fisherman, and conservationists. Stream temperature is an important environmental variable for the freshwater stages of steelhead. For this study, we developed water temperature models for the Satus and Toppenish watersheds, two of the key stronghold areas for steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We constructed the models with the Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP), a mechanistic approach to simulate water temperature in a stream network. The models were calibrated over the April 15, 2008 to September 30, 2008 period and validated over the April 15, 2009 to September 30, 2009 period using historic measurements of stream temperature and discharge provided by the Yakama Nation Fisheries Resource Management Program. Once validated, the models were run to simulate conditions during the spring and summer seasons over a baseline period (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios with increased air temperature of 1°C and 2°C. The models simulated daily mean and maximum water temperatures at sites throughout the two watersheds under the baseline and future climate scenarios.

Climate Analogues for agricultural impact projection and adaptation – a reliability test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Swen P.M. Bos

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The climate analogue approach is often considered a valuable tool for climate change impact projection and adaptation planning, especially for complex systems that cannot be modelled reliably. Important examples are smallholder farming systems using agroforestry or other mixed-cropping approaches. For the projected climate at a particular site of interest, the analogue approach identifies locations where the current climate is similar to these projected conditions. By comparing baseline-analogue site pairs, information on climate impacts and opportunities for adaptation can be obtained. However, the climate analogue approach is only meaningful, if climate is a dominant driver of differences between baseline and analogue site pairs. For a smallholder farming setting on Mt. Elgon in Kenya, we tested this requirement by comparing yield potentials of maize and coffee (obtained from the IIASA Global Agro-ecological Zones dataset among 50 close analogue sites for different future climate scenarios and models, and by comparing local ecological knowledge and farm characteristics for one baseline-analogue pair.Yield potentials among the 50 closest analogue locations varied strongly within all climate scenarios, hinting at factors other than climate as major drivers of what the analogue approach might interpret as climate effects. However, on average future climatic conditions seemed more favourable to maize and coffee cultivation than current conditions. The detailed site comparison revealed substantial differences between farms in important characteristics, such as farm size and presence of cash crops, casting doubt on the usefulness of the comparison for climate change analysis. Climatic constraints were similar between sites, so that no apparent lessons for adaptation could be derived. Pests and diseases were also similar, indicating that climate change may not lead to strong changes in biotic constraints at the baseline site in the near future. From

Projected future changes in vegetation in western North America in the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Xiaoyan, Jiang; Rauscher, Sara A.; Ringler, Todd D.; Lawrence, David M.; Williams, A. Park; Allen, Craig D.; Steiner, Allison L.; Cai, D. Michael; McDowell, Nate G.

2013-01-01

Rapid and broad-scale forest mortality associated with recent droughts, rising temperature, and insect outbreaks has been observed over western North America (NA). Climate models project additional future warming and increasing drought and water stress for this region. To assess future potential changes in vegetation distributions in western NA, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupled with its Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) was used under the future A2 emissions scenario. To better span uncertainties in future climate, eight sea surface temperature (SST) projections provided by phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were employed as boundary conditions. There is a broad consensus among the simulations, despite differences in the simulated climate trajectories across the ensemble, that about half of the needleleaf evergreen tree coverage (from 24% to 11%) will disappear, coincident with a 14% (from 11% to 25%) increase in shrubs and grasses by the end of the twenty-first century in western NA, with most of the change occurring over the latter half of the twenty-first century. The net impact is a ~6 GtC or about 50% decrease in projected ecosystem carbon storage in this region. The findings suggest a potential for a widespread shift from tree-dominated landscapes to shrub and grass-dominated landscapes in western NA because of future warming and consequent increases in water deficits. These results highlight the need for improved process-based understanding of vegetation dynamics, particularly including mortality and the subsequent incorporation of these mechanisms into earth system models to better quantify the vulnerability of western NA forests under climate change.

Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise

Chinese villages and their sustainable future: the European Union-China-Research Project "SUCCESS".

Science.gov (United States)

Dumreicher, Heidi

2008-04-01

China has 800,000 villages-one person out of seven on the globe is living in a Chinese rural settlement. Yet the global discussions about the situation in China is currently characterised by a disproportionate focus on the development of towns and until now circumstances have generally been neglected in the rural areas, where 70% of the Chinese population is still living. Within the 5 years of the SUCCESS project research, this set of actual problems has been considered and analysed under the principle of sustainability: "What to maintain?" "What to change?" were the overall research questions asked in the SUCCESS project; the researchers were looking for answers under a sustainability regime, respecting the need to raise the quality of life in the villages. Several interweaving processes were used to achieve results: the inter-disciplinary research process between many areas of expertise, the trans-disciplinary process between the researchers and the Chinese villagers, and a negotiation process that made the connection between these two processes. The introduction describes the basic sustainability definition that was orienting the whole study. The innovation lays mostly in the methodology: the inter-disciplinary research co-operation related to practice and to involving the affected communities is needed to manage the significant and growing imbalances between urban and rural areas regarding their sustainability. In the transdisciplinary work, the project developed "village future sentences" that describe the local outcome of the research as one step towards better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms that could lead to a sustainable future, and they also managed to start sustainability processes in the case study sites. The integrated approach of the project helped generating future scenarios for these villages covering all aspects of their development, including urban design issues. Out of these scenarios, the villages developed small projects that could

Futures project anticipates changes and challenges facing forests of the northern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Stephen R. Shifley; W. Keith Moser; Michael E. Goerndt; Nianfu Song; Mark D. Nelson; David J. Nowak; Patrick D. Miles; Brett J. Butler; Ryan D. DeSantis; Francisco X. Aguilar; Brian G. Tavernia

2014-01-01

The Northern Forest Futures Project aims to reveal how today's trends and choices are likely to change the future forest landscape in the northeastern and midwestern United States. The research is focused on the 20-state quadrant bounded by Maine, Maryland, Missouri, and Minnesota. This area, which encompasses most of the Central Hardwood Forest region, is the...

Projected future runoff of the Breede River under climate change ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The Breede River is the largest river in the Western Cape Province of South Africa, and as such, is a key resource for a variety of activities within the region. It is this significance of the river that prompted a study into the impact of climate change on future runoff in the river and hence, the potential impacts a projected change ...

Future Long-Baseline Neutrino Facilities and Detectors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milind Diwan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We review the ongoing effort in the US, Japan, and Europe of the scientific community to study the location and the detector performance of the next-generation long-baseline neutrino facility. For many decades, research on the properties of neutrinos and the use of neutrinos to study the fundamental building blocks of matter has unveiled new, unexpected laws of nature. Results of neutrino experiments have triggered a tremendous amount of development in theory: theories beyond the standard model or at least extensions of it and development of the standard solar model and modeling of supernova explosions as well as the development of theories to explain the matter-antimatter asymmetry in the universe. Neutrino physics is one of the most dynamic and exciting fields of research in fundamental particle physics and astrophysics. The next-generation neutrino detector will address two aspects: fundamental properties of the neutrino like mass hierarchy, mixing angles, and the CP phase, and low-energy neutrino astronomy with solar, atmospheric, and supernova neutrinos. Such a new detector naturally allows for major improvements in the search for nucleon decay. A next-generation neutrino observatory needs a huge, megaton scale detector which in turn has to be installed in a new, international underground laboratory, capable of hosting such a huge detector.

Future Long-Baseline Neutrino Facilities and Detectors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diwan, Milind [Brookhaven; Edgecock, Rob [Huddersfield U.; Hasegawa, Takuya [KEK, Tsukuba; Patzak, Thomas [APC, Paris; Shiozawa, Masato [Kamioka Observ.; Strait, Jim [Fermilab

2013-01-01

We review the ongoing effort in the US, Japan, and Europe of the scientific community to study the location and the detector performance of the next-generation long-baseline neutrino facility. For many decades, research on the properties of neutrinos and the use of neutrinos to study the fundamental building blocks of matter has unveiled new, unexpected laws of nature. Results of neutrino experiments have triggered a tremendous amount of development in theory: theories beyond the standard model or at least extensions of it and development of the standard solar model and modeling of supernova explosions as well as the development of theories to explain the matter-antimatter asymmetry in the universe. Neutrino physics is one of the most dynamic and exciting fields of research in fundamental particle physics and astrophysics. The next-generation neutrino detector will address two aspects: fundamental properties of the neutrino like mass hierarchy, mixing angles, and the CP phase, and low-energy neutrino astronomy with solar, atmospheric, and supernova neutrinos. Such a new detector naturally allows for major improvements in the search for nucleon decay. A next-generation neutrino observatory needs a huge, megaton scale detector which in turn has to be installed in a new, international underground laboratory, capable of hosting such a huge detector.

Fostering Radical Collaboration: The OCUL Collaborative Futures Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anika Ervin-Ward

2016-07-01

Full Text Available This paper was first given as a poster presentation at the Ontario Library Association Super Conference in 2016. Building on decades of successful cooperative work, the Ontario Council of University Libraries (OCUL Collaborative Futures project aims to select and implement a shared next-generation library services platform (LSP, to manage and preserve print resources in a sustainable system, and to effectively and efficiently use a shared system for the management of electronic and print resources. Phase One of this project was completed in Summer 2015. This is its story. Cet article a été présenté pour la première fois comme une présentation d’affiches à la Super Conference de l’Association des bibliothèques de l’Ontario en 2016. Basant sur des décennies de collaboration réussie, le projet Collaborative Futures du Conseil des bibliothèques universitaires de l’Ontario vise à sélectionner et à mettre en oeuvre une plate-forme des services de bibliothèque de dernière génération, à gérer et à préserver des ressources imprimées dans un système viable, et à utiliser efficacement un système partagé pour la gestion des ressources imprimées et numériques. La première phase de ce projet a été complétée pendant l’été 2015. Ceci est son histoire.

Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

Science.gov (United States)

Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

2012-04-01

Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

Navigating Bioethical Waters: Two Pilot Projects in Problem-Based Learning for Future Bioscience and Biotechnology Professionals.

Science.gov (United States)

Berry, Roberta M; Levine, Aaron D; Kirkman, Robert; Blake, Laura Palucki; Drake, Matthew

2016-12-01

We believe that the professional responsibility of bioscience and biotechnology professionals includes a social responsibility to contribute to the resolution of ethically fraught policy problems generated by their work. It follows that educators have a professional responsibility to prepare future professionals to discharge this responsibility. This essay discusses two pilot projects in ethics pedagogy focused on particularly challenging policy problems, which we call "fractious problems". The projects aimed to advance future professionals' acquisition of "fractious problem navigational" skills, a set of skills designed to enable broad and deep understanding of fractious problems and the design of good policy resolutions for them. A secondary objective was to enhance future professionals' motivation to apply these skills to help their communities resolve these problems. The projects employed "problem based learning" courses to advance these learning objectives. A new assessment instrument, "Skills for Science/Engineering Ethics Test" (SkillSET), was designed and administered to measure the success of the courses in doing so. This essay first discusses the rationale for the pilot projects, and then describes the design of the pilot courses and presents the results of our assessment using SkillSET in the first pilot project and the revised SkillSET 2.0 in the second pilot project. The essay concludes with discussion of observations and results.

Impact of choice of future climate change projection on growth chamber experimental outcomes: a preliminary study in potato

Science.gov (United States)

Leisner, Courtney P.; Wood, Joshua C.; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S.; Robin Buell, C.; Winkler, Julie A.

2017-11-01

Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Falls City, Texas: Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-09-01

This baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination of the uranium mill tailings site near Falls City, Texas, evaluates potential impact to public health and the environment resulting from ground water contamination at the former Susquehanna Western, Inc. (SWI), uranium mill processing site. This document fulfills the following objectives: determine if the site presents immediate or potential future health risks, determine the need for interim institutional controls, serve as a key input to project planning and prioritization, and recommend future data collection efforts to more fully characterize risk. The Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project has begun its evaluation of ground water contamination at the Falls City site. This risk assessment is one of the first documents specific to this site for the Ground Water Project. The first step is to evaluate ground water data collected from monitor wells at or near the site. Evaluation of these data show the main contaminants in the Dilworth ground water are cadmium, cobalt, fluoride, iron, nickel, sulfate, and uranium. The data also show high levels of arsenic and manganese occur naturally in some areas.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Falls City, Texas: Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-09-01

This baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination of the uranium mill tailings site near Falls City, Texas, evaluates potential impact to public health and the environment resulting from ground water contamination at the former Susquehanna Western, Inc. (SWI), uranium mill processing site. This document fulfills the following objectives: determine if the site presents immediate or potential future health risks, determine the need for interim institutional controls, serve as a key input to project planning and prioritization, and recommend future data collection efforts to more fully characterize risk. The Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project has begun its evaluation of ground water contamination at the Falls City site. This risk assessment is one of the first documents specific to this site for the Ground Water Project. The first step is to evaluate ground water data collected from monitor wells at or near the site. Evaluation of these data show the main contaminants in the Dilworth ground water are cadmium, cobalt, fluoride, iron, nickel, sulfate, and uranium. The data also show high levels of arsenic and manganese occur naturally in some areas

Towards the development of a GHG emissions baseline for the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU sector, South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luanne B. Stevens

2016-12-01

Full Text Available South Africa is a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC and as such is required to report on Greenhouse gas (GHG emissions from the Energy, Transport, Waste and the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU sectors every two years in national inventories. The AFOLU sector is unique in that it comprises both sources and sinks for GHGs. Emissions from the AFOLU sector are estimated to contribute a quarter of the total global greenhouse gas emissions. GHG emissions sources from agriculture include enteric fermentation; manure management; manure deposits on pastures, and soil fertilization. Emissions sources from Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU include anthropogenic land use activities such as: management of croplands, forests and grasslands and changes in land use cover (the conversion of one land use to another. South Africa has improved the quantification of AFOLU emissions and the understanding of the dynamic relationship between sinks and sources over the past decade through projects such as the 2010 GHG Inventory, the Mitigation Potential Analysis (MPA, and the National Terrestrial Carbon Sinks Assessment (NTCSA. These projects highlight key mitigation opportunities in South Africa and discuss their potentials. The problem remains that South Africa does not have an emissions baseline for the AFOLU sector against which the mitigation potentials can be measured. The AFOLU sector as a result is often excluded from future emission projections, giving an incomplete picture of South Africa’s mitigation potential. The purpose of this project was to develop a robust GHG emissions baseline for the AFOLU sector which will enable South Africa to project emissions into the future and demonstrate its contribution towards the global goal of reducing emissions.

Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Shkolnik, Igor; Pavlova, Tatiana; Efimov, Sergey; Zhuravlev, Sergey

2018-01-01

Climate change simulation based on 30-member ensemble of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory RCM (resolution 25 km) for northern Eurasia is used to drive hydrological model CaMa-Flood. Using this modeling framework, we evaluate the uncertainties in the future projection of the peak river discharge and flood hazard by 2050-2059 relative to 1990-1999 under IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Large ensemble size, along with reasonably high modeling resolution, allows one to efficiently sample natural climate variability and increase our ability to predict future changes in the hydrological extremes. It has been shown that the annual maximum river discharge can almost double by the mid-XXI century in the outlets of major Siberian rivers. In the western regions, there is a weak signal in the river discharge and flood hazard, hardly discernible above climate variability. Annual maximum flood area is projected to increase across Siberia mostly by 2-5% relative to the baseline period. A contribution of natural climate variability at different temporal scales to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction is discussed. The analysis shows that there expected considerable changes in the extreme river discharge probability at locations of the key hydropower facilities. This suggests that the extensive impact studies are required to develop recommendations for maintaining regional energy security.

A comparison of baseline methodologies for 'Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation'

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kok Kasper

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A mechanism for emission reductions from deforestation and degradation (REDD is very likely to be included in a future climate agreement. The choice of REDD baseline methodologies will crucially influence the environmental and economic effectiveness of the climate regime. We compare three different historical baseline methods and one innovative dynamic model baseline approach to appraise their applicability under a future REDD policy framework using a weighted multi-criteria analysis. Results The results show that each baseline method has its specific strengths and weaknesses. Although the dynamic model allows for the best environmental and for comparatively good economic performance, its high demand for data and technical capacity limit the current applicability in many developing countries. Conclusion The adoption of a multi-tier approach will allow countries to select the baseline method best suiting their specific capabilities and data availability while simultaneously ensuring scientific transparency, environmental effectiveness and broad political support.

Neutrino physics with short baseline experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zimmerman, E.D.

2006-01-01

Neutrino physics with low- to medium-energy beams has progressed steadily over the last several years. Neutrino oscillation searches at short baseline (defined as 2 - -> 0.1eV 2 . One positive signal, from the LSND collaboration, exists and is being tested by the MiniBooNE experiment. Neutrino cross-section measurements are being made by MiniBooNE and K2K, which will be important for reducing systematic errors in present and future oscillation measurements. In the near future, dedicated cross- section experiments will begin operating at Fermilab. (author)

Risk Management in Future Romanian E-Government 2.0 Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Didraga Otniel

2015-08-01

Full Text Available E-government public services in Romania must follow unitary procedures considering the new requirements of the European Union from the Digital Agenda for Europe Strategy 2020. E-government 2.0 has to be implemented because of the cultural and behavioral transformations in the interaction between governments and users of e-services. E-government 2.0 projects use tools and techniques of social media to accomplish their goals. This article examines the possible risk categories and the risk management procedures needed to mitigate risks in future Romanian e-government projects, according to the strategic lines of development for the Digital Agenda. We propose a risk management plan for the e-government lines of action within the strategic lines of development that includes identifying, assessing, and mitigating the risks. New and modernized government services through e-government 2.0 projects that apply risk management will bring a significant improvement in how citizens and businesses relate to government and will increase the use of e-government services.

Intelum project: tackling the calorimetry challenge for future high-energy colliders

CERN Multimedia

CERN Bulletin

2015-01-01

Intelum is one of the CERN-coordinated projects funded under H2020. It aims to develop low-cost, radiation-hard scintillating and Cherenkov crystal and glass fibres for the next generation of calorimeter detectors for future high-energy experiments. This new technology could also have important applications in the medical imaging field.     Intelum project partners at the kick-off meeting held on 11 March at CERN.   Intelum is an H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Research and Innovation Staff Exchange (RISE) project coordinated by CERN. This project was initiated by the Crystal Clear Collaboration (CERN’s RD18 experiment), which has been developing inorganic scintillation materials for novel ionising-radiation detectors for 25 years. Intelum is an international consortium including fifteen institutes and companies from across western and eastern Europe, Japan and the USA, all of which are experts in crystal growth, scintillating mechanisms, radiation damage and dete...

Baseline survey for rare plant species and native plant communities within the Kamehameha Schools 'Lupea Safe Harbor Planning Project Area, North Kona District, Island of Hawai'i

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobi, James; Warshauer, F. R.; Price, Jonathan

2010-01-01

Kamehameha Schools, in conjunction with several federal, state, and private organizations, has proposed to conduct conservation management on approximately 5,340 ha (~13,200 acres) of land they own in the vicinity of Kīpukalupea in the North Kona District on the island of Hawai'i. The goal of this program is to restore and enhance the habitat to benefit native plant and animal populations that are currently, or were formerly, found in this site. The initial phase of this project has been focused on various activities including conducting baseline surveys for bird and plant species so Kamehameha Schools could develop a Safe Harbor Agreement (SHA) for the proposed project lands relative to the habitat management and species reintroduction efforts they would like to conduct in the Lupea Project area. This report summarizes methods that were used to collect field data on plant species and communities within the project area, and the results of that initial survey. The information was used to calculate baseline values for all listed threatened or endangered plant species found, or expected to be found, within the project area, and to design a monitoring program to assess changes in plant communities and rare plant species relative to management activities over the duration of the SHA.

Baseline mapping study of the Steed Pond aquifer and vadose zone beneath A/M Area, Savannah River Site, Aiken, South Carolina

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jackson, D.G. Jr.

2000-01-01

This report presents the second phase of a baseline mapping project conducted for the Environmental Restoration Department (ERD) at Savannah River Site. The purpose of this second phase is to map the structure and distribution of mud (clay and silt-sized sediment) within the vadose zone beneath A/M Area. The results presented in this report will assist future characterization and remediation activities in the vadose zone and upper aquifer zones in A/M Area

Nutrition and Physical Activity Policies and Practices in Family Child Care Homes in Oregon: Baseline Findings from the Healthy Home Child Care Project

Science.gov (United States)

Gunter, Katherine B.; Rice, Kelly R.; Trost, Stewart G.

2012-01-01

Baseline findings from the Healthy Home Child Care Project include data from Family Child Care Providers (FCCPs) in Oregon (n=53) who completed assessments of nutrition and physical activity policies and practices and BMI data for children in the care of FCCPs (n=205). Results show that a significant percentage of FCCPs failed to meet child care…

Web-based access, aggregation, and visualization of future climate projections with emphasis on agricultural assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol

2018-01-01

Access to climate and spatial datasets by non-specialists is restricted by technical barriers involving hardware, software and data formats. We discuss an open-source online tool that facilitates downloading the climate data from the global circulation models used by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. The tool also offers temporal and spatial aggregation capabilities for incorporating future climate scenarios in applications where spatial aggregation is important. We hope that streamlined access to these data facilitates analysis of climate related issues while considering the uncertainties derived from future climate projections and temporal aggregation choices.

Identification of remediation needs and technology development focus areas for the Environmental Restoration (ER) Project at Sandia National Laboratories/New Mexico (SNL/NM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tucker, M.D.

1995-06-01

The Environmental Restoration (ER) Project has been tasked with the characterization, assessment, remediation and long-term monitoring of contaminated waste sites at Sandia National Laboratories/New Mexico (SNL/NM). Many of these sites will require remediation which will involve the use of baseline technologies, innovative technologies that are currently under development, and new methods which will be developed in the near future. The Technology Applications Program (TAP) supports the ER Project and is responsible for development of new technologies for use at the contaminated waste sites, including technologies that will be used for remediation and restoration of these sites. The purpose of this report is to define the remediation needs of the ER Project and to identify those remediation needs for which the baseline technologies and the current development efforts are inadequate. The area between the remediation needs and the existing baseline/innovative technology base represents a technology gap which must be filled in order to remediate contaminated waste sites at SNL/NM economically and efficiently. In the first part of this report, the remediation needs of the ER Project are defined by both the ER Project task leaders and by TAP personnel. The next section outlines the baseline technologies, including EPA defined Best Demonstrated Available Technologies (BDATs), that are applicable at SNL/NM ER sites. This is followed by recommendations of innovative technologies that are currently being developed that may also be applicable at SNL/NM ER sites. Finally, the gap between the existing baseline/innovative technology base and the remediation needs is identified. This technology gap will help define the future direction of technology development for the ER Project

Future Water-Supply Scenarios, Cape May County, New Jersey, 2003-2050

Science.gov (United States)

Lacombe, Pierre J.; Carleton, Glen B.; Pope, Daryll A.; Rice, Donald E.

2009-01-01

Stewards of the water supply in New Jersey are interested in developing a plan to supply potable and non-potable water to residents and businesses of Cape May County until at least 2050. The ideal plan would meet projected demands and minimize adverse effects on currently used sources of potable, non-potable, and ecological water supplies. This report documents past and projected potable, non-potable, and ecological water-supply demands. Past and ongoing adverse effects to production and domestic wells caused by withdrawals include saltwater intrusion and water-level declines in the freshwater aquifers. Adverse effects on the ecological water supplies caused by groundwater withdrawals include premature drying of seasonal wetlands, delayed recovery of water levels in the water-table aquifer, and reduced streamflow. To predict the effects of future actions on the water supplies, three baseline and six future scenarios were created and simulated. Baseline Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 represent withdrawals using existing wells projected until 2050. Baseline Scenario 1 represents average 1998-2003 withdrawals, and Scenario 2 represents New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) full allocation withdrawals. These withdrawals do not meet projected future water demands. Baseline Scenario 3 represents the estimated full build-out water demands. Results of simulations of the three baseline scenarios indicate that saltwater would intrude into the Cohansey aquifer as much as 7,100 feet (ft) to adversely affect production wells used by Lower Township and the Wildwoods, as well as some other near-shore domestic wells; water-level altitudes in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand would decline to -156 ft; base flow in streams would be depleted by 0 to 26 percent; and water levels in the water-table aquifer would decline as much as 0.7ft. [Specific water-level altitudes, land-surface altitudes, and present sea level when used in this report are referenced to the North American

Future short baseline neutrino oscillation experiments

CERN Document Server

Camilleri, L L

1999-01-01

A neutrino mass that would make a significant contribution to the hidden mass of the universe and thus contribute to the solving of the dark matter puzzle is still the most valuable prize in neutrino physics. This would presumably be through a mixed dark matter scenario and would involve a neutrino mass of 1-2 eV. Assuming the Delta m/sup 2/ observed in neutrino oscillations is the difference between this mass and a negligible mass of a second neutrino, CHORUS and NOMAD would only have a sensitivity of sin/sup 2/ 2 theta ~10/sup -3/ in this domain. The aim of future nu /sub mu /- nu /sub tau / oscillation searches is therefore to improve the sensitivity of the search by about an order of magnitude. NOMAD has a number of events looking exactly like a nu /sub tau / interaction should but, in spite of the good kinematical capabilities of the experiment, the number of such events is consistent with the number of expected background events. Therefore to improve on this situation it is imperative to be able to dete...

GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010. An occasional publication of Gas Research Institute on topics of current interest. December 1989

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; McCabe, N.C.

1989-12-01

The report summarizes the 1989 GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, which was adopted as a major input to the planning cycle leading to the development of GRI's 1991 R and D program. Summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, and the natural gas supply and price trends are presented. Appendixes include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1989 projection, and analysis of the potential for higher levels of gas demand, a description of industrial and commercial cogeneration energy supply and demand, a comparison of the 1989 projection with previous GRI projections, and a discussion of additional data used in developing the projection

System maintenance test plan for the TWRS controlled baseline database system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spencer, S.G.

1998-01-01

TWRS [Tank Waste Remediation System] Controlled Baseline Database, formally known as the Performance Measurement Control System, is used to track and monitor TWRS project management baseline information. This document contains the maintenance testing approach for software testing of the TCBD system once SCR/PRs are implemented

Future Projection of Ocean Wave Climate: Analysis of SST Impacts on Wave Climate Changes in the Western North Pacific

OpenAIRE

Shimura, Tomoya; Mori, Nobuhito; Mase, Hajime

2015-01-01

Changes in ocean surface waves elicit a variety of impacts on coastal environments. To assess the future changes in the ocean surface wave climate, several future projections of global wave climate have been simulated in previous studies. However, previously there has been little discussion about the causes behind changes in the future wave climate and the differences between projections. The objective of this study is to estimate the future changes in mean wave climate and the sensitivity of...

Future projection of design storms using a GCM-informed weather generator

Science.gov (United States)

KIm, T. W.; Wi, S.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Valdés, J. B.

2017-12-01

The rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are one of the most common tools used to provide planners with a description of the frequency of extreme rainfall events of various intensities and durations. Therefore deriving appropriate IDF estimates is important to avoid malfunctions of water structures that cause huge damage. Evaluating IDF estimates in the context of climate change has become more important because projections from climate models suggest that the frequency of intense rainfall events will increase in the future due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the Bartlett-Lewis (BL) stochastic rainfall model is employed to generate annual maximum series of various sub-daily durations for test basins of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) project, and to derive the IDF curves in the context of climate changes projected by the North American Regional Climate Change (NARCCAP) models. From our results, it has been found that the observed annual rainfall maximum series is reasonably represented by the synthetic annual maximum series generated by the BL model. The observed data is perturbed by change factors to incorporate the NARCCAP climate change scenarios into the IDF estimates. The future IDF curves show a significant difference from the historical IDF curves calculated for the period 1968-2000. Overall, the projected IDF curves show an increasing trend over time. The impacts of changes in extreme rainfall on the hydrologic response of the MOPEX basins are also explored. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS-NH-2015-79] through the Disaster and Safety Management Institute funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government.

FutureGen 2.0 Pipeline and Regional Carbon Capture Storage Project - Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burger, Chris [Patrick Engineering Inc., Lisle, IL (United States); Wortman, David [Patrick Engineering Inc., Lisle, IL (United States); Brown, Chris [Battelle Memorial Inst., Richland, WA (United States); Hassan, Syed [Gulf Interstate Engineering, Houston, TX (United States); Humphreys, Ken [Futuregen Industrial Alliance, Inc., Washington, D.C. (United States); Willford, Mark [Futuregen Industrial Alliance, Inc., Washington, D.C. (United States)

2016-03-31

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) FutureGen 2.0 Program involves two projects: (1) the Oxy-Combustion Power Plant Project and (2) the CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project. This Final Technical Report is focused on the CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project. The FutureGen 2.0 CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project evolved from an initial siting and project definition effort in Phase I, into the Phase II activity consisting permitting, design development, the acquisition of land rights, facility design, and licensing and regulatory approvals. Phase II also progressed into construction packaging, construction procurement, and targeted early preparatory activities in the field. The CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project accomplishments were significant, and in some cases unprecedented. The engineering, permitting, legal, stakeholder, and commercial learnings substantially advance the nation’s understanding of commercial-scale CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers. Voluminous and significant information was obtained from the drilling and the testing program of the subsurface, and sophisticated modeling was performed that held up to a wide range of scrutiny. All designs progressed to the point of securing construction contracts or comfort letters attesting to successful negotiation of all contract terms and willing execution at the appropriate time all major project elements – pipeline, surface facilities, and subsurface – as well as operations. While the physical installation of the planned facilities did not proceed in part due to insufficient time to complete the project prior to the expiration of federal funding, the project met significant objectives prior to DOE’s closeout decision. Had additional time been available, there were no known, insurmountable obstacles that would have precluded successful construction and operation of the project. Due to the suspension of the project, site restoration activities were developed and the work was accomplished. The site restoration

The Impact of Future Emissions Changes on Air Pollution Concentrations and Related Human Health Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Mikolajczyk, U.; Suppan, P.; Williams, M.

2015-12-01

Quantification of potential health benefits of reductions in air pollution on the local scale is becoming increasingly important. The aim of this study is to conduct health impact assessment (HIA) by utilizing regionally and spatially specific data in order to assess the influence of future emission scenarios on human health. In the first stage of this investigation, a modeling study was carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry to estimate ambient concentrations of air pollutants for the baseline year 2009, and for the future emission scenarios in southern Germany. Anthropogenic emissions for the baseline year 2009 are derived from the emission inventory provided by the Netherlands Organization of Applied Scientific Research (TNO) (Denier van der Gon et al., 2010). For Germany, the TNO emissions were replaced by gridded emission data with a high spatial resolution of 1/64 x 1/64 degrees. Future air quality simulations are carried out under different emission scenarios, which reflect possible energy and climate measures in year 2030. The model set-up included a nesting approach, where three domains with horizontal resolution of 18 km, 6 km and 2 km were defined. The simulation results for the baseline year 2009 are used to quantify present-day health burdens. Concentration-response functions (CRFs) for PM2.5 and NO2 from the WHO Health risks of air Pollution in Europe (HRAPIE) project were applied to population-weighted mean concentrations to estimate relative risks and hence to determine numbers of attributable deaths and associated life-years lost. In the next step, future health impacts of projected concentrations were calculated taking into account different emissions scenarios. The health benefits that we assume with air pollution reductions can be used to provide options for future policy decisions to protect public health.

Utilization of paleoclimate results to validate projections of a future greenhouse warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowley, T.J.

1990-01-01

Paleoclimate data provide a rich source of information for testing projections of future greenhouse trends. This paper summarizes the present state-of-the-art as to assessments of two important climate problems. (1) Validation of climate models - The same climate models that have been used to make greenhouse forecasts have also been used for paleoclimate simulations. Comparisons of model results and observations indicate some impressive successes but also some cases where there are significant divergences between models and observations. However, special conditions associated with the impressive successes could lead to a false confidence in the models; disagreements are a topic of greater concern. It remains to be determined whether the disagreements are due to model limitations or uncertainties in geologic data. (2) Role of CO 2 as a significant climate feedback: Paleoclimate studies indicate that the climate system is generally more sensitive than our ability to model it. Addition or subtraction of CO 2 leads to a closer agreement between models and observations. In this respect paleoclimate results in general support the conclusion that CO 2 is an important climate feedback, with the magnitude of the feedback approximately comparable to the sensitivity of present climate models. If the CO 2 projections are correct, comparison of the future warming with past warm periods indicate that there may be no geologic analogs for a future warming; the future greenhouse climate may represent a unique climate realization in earth history

Present status and future project on hadron physics with KEK proton synchrotron

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masaike, Akira

1984-01-01

Recent experimental results on hadron physics using a 12 GeV proton synchrotron at KEK are presented. Several future projects which have been proposed as a post-shutdown program from 1985 including hypernuclear physics, physics with polarized beam and heavy ion beam are also reported. (author)

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

2017-12-01

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

Summaries and future projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egelstaff, P.A.

1989-01-01

In this paper the author gives a brief summary of this meeting. He discusses the status at the current neutron sources and future sources. The current problems with targets, moderators, performance of storage rings and shields are briefly mentioned. Finally, he speculates on the prospects of neutron sources for the future and gives his version of the ultimate source

Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — a glimpse into current and future projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-01-01

With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative.

Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — A glimpse into current and future projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-01-01

With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative

Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — A glimpse into current and future projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-01-01

With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative.

Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouwer, L.M.

2013-01-01

Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but

Planned Change in Future Models of Project Follow Through: A Concept Paper.

Science.gov (United States)

Simpkins, Edward; Brown, Asa

The three chapters included in this paper establish a basis for organizing future implementations of Project Follow Through. Specifically, chapter 1 identifies four planning objectives for coordinating such programs. Emphasis is given to the need to focus on one fundamental, pervasive variable possibly accounting for program success: time…

Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

2017-12-01

Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable

A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Dadson, Simon J.; Coxon, Gemma; Bussi, Gianbattista; Freer, James; Kay, Alison L.; Massey, Neil R.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David C. H.; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.

2018-01-01

Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900-2006), (ii) five near-future scenarios (2020-2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070-2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1-30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions

Baseline Testing of The EV Global E-Bike

Science.gov (United States)

Eichenberg, Dennis J.; Kolacz, John S.; Tavernelli, Paul F.

2001-01-01

The NASA John H. Glenn Research Center initiated baseline testing of the EV Global E-Bike as a way to reduce pollution in urban areas, reduce fossil fuel consumption and reduce Operating costs for transportation systems. The work was done Linder the Hybrid Power Management (HPM) Program, which includes the Hybrid Electric Transit Bus (HETB). The E-Bike is a state of the art, ground up, hybrid electric bicycle. Unique features of the vehicle's power system include the use of an efficient, 400 W. electric hub motor and a 7-speed derailleur system that permits operation as fully electric, fully pedal, or a combination of the two. Other innovative features, such as regenerative braking through ultracapacitor energy storage are planned. Regenerative braking recovers much of the kinetic energy of the vehicle during deceleration. The E-Bike is an inexpensive approach to advance the state of the art in hybrid technology in a practical application. The project transfers space technology to terrestrial use via nontraditional partners, and provides power system data valuable for future space applications. A description of the E-bike, the results of performance testing, and future vehicle development plans is the subject of this report. The report concludes that the E-Bike provides excellent performance, and that the implementation of ultracapacitors in the power system can provide significant performance improvements.

Addressing the security of a future sustainable power system: The Danish SOSPO project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yang, Guangya; Jóhannsson, Hjörtur; Lind, Morten

2012-01-01

evaluated to secure the operation from both transmission and distribution levels. The Danish SOSPO project is launched from 2012 targeting at the system security assessment in the control room for the future scenarios. Methods will be developed in this project to counteract with the future challenges......Current power systems have been undergoing in depth changes by the increasing use of renewable generations. At one hand, the grid is progressively more interconnected in order to collect the renewable generation from geographically dispersed places meanwhile reduce the risks of intermittency......; on the other, the power is increasingly generated at relative low voltage networks which in turn gives rise to new challenges in the conventional system design. The high governmental objective of greenhouse gas reduction provokes accelerating adoptation of the renewables. The effect of this has to be carefully...

Balancing energy, development and climate priorities in India. Current trends and future projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Dhar, S.; Halsnaes, K.

2007-09-01

This report gives a short introduction to the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing countries. Furthermore, the report analyses Indian energy, development and climate change, followed by an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. The focus is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. (BA)

Operationalizing clean development mechanism baselines: A case study of China's electrical sector

Science.gov (United States)

Steenhof, Paul A.

The global carbon market is rapidly developing as the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol draws closer and Parties to the Protocol with greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets seek alternative ways to reduce their emissions. The Protocol includes the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a tool that encourages project-based investments to be made in developing nations that will lead to an additional reduction in emissions. Due to China's economic size and rate of growth, technological characteristics, and its reliance on coal, it contains a large proportion of the global CDM potential. As China's economy modernizes, more technologies and processes are requiring electricity and demand for this energy source is accelerating rapidly. Relatively inefficient technology to generate electricity in China thereby results in the electrical sector having substantial GHG emission reduction opportunities as related to the CDM. In order to ensure the credibility of the CDM in leading to a reduction in GHG emissions, it is important that the baseline method used in the CDM approval process is scientifically sound and accessible for both others to use and for evaluation purposes. Three different methods for assessing CDM baselines and environmental additionality are investigated in the context of China's electrical sector: a method based on a historical perspective of the electrical sector (factor decomposition), a method structured upon a current perspective (operating and build margins), and a simulation of the future (dispatch analysis). Assessing future emission levels for China's electrical sector is a very challenging task given the complexity of the system, its dynamics, and that it is heavily influenced by internal and external forces, but of the different baseline methods investigated, dispatch modelling is best suited for the Chinese context as it is able to consider the important regional and temporal dimensions of its economy and its future development

Projection displays and MEMS: timely convergence for a bright future

Science.gov (United States)

Hornbeck, Larry J.

1995-09-01

Projection displays and microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) have evolved independently, occasionally crossing paths as early as the 1950s. But the commercially viable use of MEMS for projection displays has been illusive until the recent invention of Texas Instruments Digital Light Processing TM (DLP) technology. DLP technology is based on the Digital Micromirror DeviceTM (DMD) microchip, a MEMS technology that is a semiconductor digital light switch that precisely controls a light source for projection display and hardcopy applications. DLP technology provides a unique business opportunity because of the timely convergence of market needs and technology advances. The world is rapidly moving to an all- digital communications and entertainment infrastructure. In the near future, most of the technologies necessary for this infrastrucutre will be available at the right performance and price levels. This will make commercially viable an all-digital chain (capture, compression, transmission, reception decompression, hearing, and viewing). Unfortunately, the digital images received today must be translated into analog signals for viewing on today's televisions. Digital video is the final link in the all-digital infrastructure and DLP technoogy provides that link. DLP technology is an enabler for digital, high-resolution, color projection displays that have high contrast, are bright, seamless, and have the accuracy of color and grayscale that can be achieved only by digital control. This paper contains an introduction to DMD and DLP technology, including the historical context from which to view their developemnt. The architecture, projection operation, and fabrication are presented. Finally, the paper includes an update about current DMD business opportunities in projection displays and hardcopy.

Model Projections of Future Fluvial Sediment Delivery to Major Deltas Under Environmental Change

Science.gov (United States)

Darby, S. E.; Dunn, F.; Nicholls, R. J.; Cohen, S.; Zarfl, C.

2017-12-01

Deltas are important hot spots for climate change impacts on which over half a billion people live worldwide. Most of the world's deltas are sinking as a result of natural and anthropogenic subsidence and due to eustatic sea level rise. The ability to predict rates of delta aggradation is therefore critical to assessments of the extent to which sedimentation can potentially offset sea level rise, but our ability to make such predictions is severely hindered by a lack of insight into future trends of the fluvial sediment load supplied to their deltas by feeder watersheds. To address this gap we investigate fluvial sediment fluxes under future environmental change for a selection (47) of the world's major river deltas. Specifically, we employed the numerical model WBMsed to project future variations in mean annual fluvial sediment loads under a range of environmental change scenarios that account for changes in climate, socio-economics and dam construction. Our projections indicate a clear decrease (by 34 to 41% on average, depending on the specific scenario) in future fluvial sediment supply to most of the 47 deltas. These reductions in sediment delivery are driven primarily by anthropogenic disturbances, with reservoir construction being the most influential factor globally. Our results indicate the importance of developing new management strategies for reservoir construction and operation.

Review on the Projections of Future Storminess over the North Atlantic European Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tina Mölter

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This is an overview of the results from previously published climate modeling studies reporting on projected aspects of future storminess over the North Atlantic European region (NAER in the period 2020–2190. Changes in storminess are summarized for seven subregions in the study area and rated by a categorical evaluation scheme that takes into account emission scenarios and modeling complexity in the reviewed studies. Although many of the reviewed studies reported an increase in the intensity of high-impact wind speed and extreme cyclone frequency in the second half of the 21st century, the projections of aspects of future storminess over the NAER differed regionally. There is broad consensus that the frequency and intensity of storms, cyclones, and high-impact wind speed will increase over Central and Western Europe, and these changes will probably have the potential to produce more damage. In contrast, future extratropical storminess over Southern Europe is very likely to decrease. For Northern and Eastern Europe the results of the evaluation are inconclusive, because there is an indication of increasing as well as decreasing development of the evaluated aspects of future storminess. Concerning the storm track, we found indications of a likely north- and eastward shift in most assessed studies. Results from three studies suggest a northeastward shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

The pediatric resident training on tobacco project: baseline findings from the Parent/Guardian Tobacco Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Hymowitz, Norman; Schwab, Joseph; Haddock, Christopher keith; Pyle, Sara; Moore, Glenisha; Meshberg, Sarah

2005-07-01

Pediatricians have an important and unique role to play in the anti-tobacco arena. They may prevent relapse to smoking in women who stopped smoking during pregnancy, encourage parents to protect infants and young children from environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), prevent the onset of smoking in children and adolescents, and help patients and parents who smoke or use other forms of tobacco to quit. Unfortunately, few pediatricians intervene on tobacco use or ETS, and few pediatric residency training programs prepare residents to address tobacco. The Pediatric Residency Training on Tobacco Project is a 4-year randomized prospective study of the effectiveness of training pediatric residents to intervene on tobacco in patients and parents. In this paper, we present findings from the Baseline Parent/Guardian Tobacco Survey. Fifteen pediatric residency training programs participated in the Pediatric Residency Training on Tobacco Project, and they were assigned randomly to special and standard training conditions. The Baseline Parent/Guardian Tobacco Survey was administered to 1770 participants, a minimum of 100 from each site. The Parent/Guardian Survey was designed to describe the population under study. It addressed demographic information, family tobacco use, rules concerning smoking in the home and elsewhere, smoking behavior and beliefs, and parent/guardian reports of resident intervention on tobacco. Data analyses described the population served by Continuity Clinics associated with the pediatric residency training programs and determined the degree to which residents addressed tobacco in parents/guardians. The parents/guardians were primarily low-income African American and Hispanic females. Approximately 20% reported that they smoked cigarettes, and about 60% prohibited smoking in their home. Seventy percent of the parents reported that the resident asked about cigarette smoking, and about half indicated that the resident talked with them about ETS. However, only

Organic Contamination Baseline Study: In NASA JSC Astromaterials Curation Laboratories. Summary Report

Science.gov (United States)

Calaway, Michael J.

2013-01-01

In preparation for OSIRIS-REx and other future sample return missions concerned with analyzing organics, we conducted an Organic Contamination Baseline Study for JSC Curation Labsoratories in FY12. For FY12 testing, organic baseline study focused only on molecular organic contamination in JSC curation gloveboxes: presumably future collections (i.e. Lunar, Mars, asteroid missions) would use isolation containment systems over only cleanrooms for primary sample storage. This decision was made due to limit historical data on curation gloveboxes, limited IR&D funds and Genesis routinely monitors organics in their ISO class 4 cleanrooms.

Coastal marine pollution and toxicology : overview of current research and future needs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zubir Din

1996-01-01

The contents are marine pollution and toxicology studies at Universiti Sains Malaysia, their facilities, and research projects have been done on this subject. In coastal pollution monitoring and baseline studies, the emphasis have been on determination of levels of trace-metals in the coastal marine environment, in relation to other physico-chemical parameters. The future needs and goals of marine pollution and toxicology studies in Malaysia also discussed

Coastal marine pollution and toxicology : overview of current research and future needs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Din, Zubir [Science Univ. of Malaysia, Minden, Pulau Pinang (Malaysia). Centre for Marine and Coastal Studies

1997-12-31

The contents are marine pollution and toxicology studies at Universiti Sains Malaysia, their facilities, and research projects have been done on this subject. In coastal pollution monitoring and baseline studies, the emphasis have been on determination of levels of trace-metals in the coastal marine environment, in relation to other physico-chemical parameters. The future needs and goals of marine pollution and toxicology studies in Malaysia also discussed.

Application Of The Climafor Baseline To Determine Leakage: TheCase Of Scolel Te.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De Jong, B.H.J.; Bazan, E. Esquivel; Quechulpa Montalvo, S.

2007-06-01

The acceptance of forestry-based project activities tomitigate greenhouse gases emissions has been subjected to a number ofmethodological questions to be answered, of which the most challengingare baseline establishment and identification of and measuring leakage.Here we pose hypotheses for and quantify leakage of the Scolel Te projectin Chiapas, Mexico. In this project small-scale farmers are implementingforestry, agroforestry, and forest conservation activities, with carbonsequestration as one of the goals. The main leakage monitoring domain isdefined as the area owned by the participating farmers or communitiesoutside the area where the specific project activities take place. Thenull-hypothesis (no leakage) is that non-project land owned by the farmeror community will experience the same carbon stock changes as predictedby the regional baseline, specifically developed for the project. Firstwe assessed the most likely causes and sources of leakage that may occurin the project. From this analysis, one type of leakage seems to beimportant, i.e., activity shifting. Second we estimated the leakage of asample of participating farmers and communities. Actual land use was thencompared with expected land use derived from the baseline. The Plan Vivoof each participant, complemented with readily available tools toidentify the main sources and drivers of leakage are used to developsimple leakage assessment procedures, as demonstrated in this paper.Negative leakage was estimated to be negligible in this study.Incorporating these procedures already in the project planning stage willreduce the uncertainties related to the actual carbon mitigationpotential of any forestry project.

Taking stock of project value creation: A structured literature review with future directions for research and practice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laursen, Markus; Svejvig, Per

2016-01-01

This paper aims to take stock of what we know about project value creation and to present future directions for research and practice. We performed an explorative and unstructured literature review, which was subsequently paired with a structured literature review. We join several research areas...... by adopting the project value creation perspective on literature relating to benefits, value, performance, and success in projects. Our review includes 111 contributions analyzed through both an inductive and deductive approach. We find that relevant literature dates back to the early 1980s, and the still...... developing value-centric view has been the subject of many publications in recent years. We contribute to research on project value creation through four directions for future research: rejuvenating value management through combining value, benefits, and costs; supplementing value creation with value capture...

Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.

2013-12-01

Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.

Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miroslava Garza

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America.We forecast the future (2050 distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3 and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2 were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change.The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change.

Integrating risk management into the baselining process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jennett, N.; Tonkinson, A.

1994-01-01

These processes work together in building the project (comprised of the technical, schedule, and cost baselines) against which performance is measured and changes to the scope, schedule and cost of a project are managed and controlled. Risk analysis is often performed as the final element of the scheduling or estimating processes, a precursor to establishing cost and schedule contingency. However, best business practices dictate that information that may be crucial to the success of a project be analyzed and incorporated into project planning as soon as it is available and usable. The purpose or risk management is not to eliminate risk. Neither is it intended to suggest wholesale re-estimating and re-scheduling of a project. Rather, the intent is to make provisions to reduce and control the schedule and/or cost ramifications of risk by anticipating events and conditions that cannot be reliably planned for and which have the potential to negatively impact accomplishment of the technical objectives and requirements of the project

Probing Neutrino Properties with Long-Baseline Neutrino Beams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marino, Alysia

2015-01-01

This final report on an Early Career Award grant began in April 15, 2010 and concluded on April 14, 2015. Alysia Marino's research is focussed on making precise measurements of neutrino properties using intense accelerator-generated neutrino beams. As a part of this grant, she is collaborating on the Tokai-to-Kamioka (T2K) long-baseline neutrino experiment, currently taking data in Japan, and on the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) design effort for a future Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) in the US. She is also a member of the NA61/SHINE particle production experiment at CERN, but as that effort is supported by other funds, it will not be discussed further here. T2K was designed to search for the disappearance of muon neutrinos (?_?) and the appearance of electron neutrinos (?_e), using a beam of muon neutrino beam that travels 295 km across Japan towards the Super-Kamiokande detector. In 2011 T2K first reported indications of ?_e appearance, a previously unobserved mode of neutrino oscillations. In the past year, T2K has published a combined analysis of ?_? disappearance and ?_e appearance, and began collecting taking data with a beam of anti-neutrinos, instead of neutrinos, to search for hints of violation of the CP symmetry of the universe. The proposed DUNE experiment has similar physics goals to T2K, but will be much more sensitive due to its more massive detectors and new higher-intensity neutrino beam. This effort will be very high-priority particle physics project in the US over the next decade.

Role and future subjects of support project 'research activity on radiation etc. by high school students'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iimoto, Takeshi; Fujimoto, Noboru; Nakamura, Takashi

2014-01-01

This is a report of the project of MEXT(The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology) to support high school students researching radiation etc. This subject research consists of an exchange meeting, independence research, and a presentation meeting of the results. Media introduced the project and this was a very reputable project. However, regrettably this support project was broken off in the business year of 2012. In this document, the outline of the support project for seven years is introduced and the possibility of future deployment is discussed. (author)

Projecting future mortality in the Netherlands taking into account mortality delay and smoking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen, F.; de Beer, J.A.A.

2016-01-01

Estimates of future mortality often prove inaccurate as conventional extrapolative mortality projection methods do not capture the impact of smoking nor the mortality delay: the shift in the age-at-death distribution towards older ages. The added value of incorporating information on smoking into

Long-term trends in U.S. gas supply and prices: 1992 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woods, T.J.

1991-12-01

The paper summarizes the gas supply outlook in the 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, which has been adopted as a major input to the planning cycle leading to the development of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) 1993 research and development program. The 1992 projection presents the GRI planning outlook for the economic and the energy supply and demand situation to the year 2010. It was prepared independently by GRI using publicly available data and a framework of commercially available models that GRI has developed over several years. It is not derived from the views of GRI member companies. The 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection presents an optimistic outlook for the U.S. gas industry in which increased gas supply can be obtained at competitive prices. The gas prices in the 1992 projection support growth in all major U.S. gas supply sources: lower-48, Alaska, Canada, Mexico, and LNG. By about 2005, U.S. gas supply is at its highest level ever. By 2010, U.S. gas supply has grown to almost 25 quads. U.S. gas production increases 2.6 quads between 1990 and 2010; imports increase 2.2 quads. Although imports do not increase as much as U.S. gas production, they account for an increased share of U.S. gas supply. The import share grows from 7 percent to 12 percent over the projection period. Supplemental gas sources provide about 1 percent of U.S. gas supply

Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.

2014-09-01

A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-12-01

This report is the first in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multiyear research project to explore widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. More specifically, the EFS is designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in all major economic sectors as well as electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and the economic and environmental implications of widespread electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multiyear duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report released on its own timeframe.

Handbook to guide the measurement and monitoring of project effectiveness and impact

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1986-09-15

This handbook demonstrates the application of a tool for measuring and monitoring the impact of a development project in the Department of Quezaltenango, Guatemala. That project itself presently is a demonstration. It explores the technical feasibility and the commercial possibilities of direct geothermal heat applications to the processing of agricultural produce - with the eventual purpose of expanding agricultural exports from Guatemala. The handbook focuses on an early stage of the geothermal initiative and guides preparations for future impact measurement and monitoring of geothermal projects. Primarily, guidance is for projects in agricultural applications of geothermal heat - and basically in Quezaltenango. But the exercise and the handbook are relevant in broad outline to other, industrial applications projects as well which may be based in other departments and have immediate impact across the whole country. This handbook attempts to prepare geothermal energy planners in Guatemala for that juncture when geothermal projects can be managed by objectives. It promotes and facilitates thinking about defining specific objectives for projects that result from the demonstration at Zunil (in Quezaltenango Department); and it prompts preparations for obtaining baseline measurements and for making rational projections on the achievements of future projects.

The Midwifery Legacies Project: history, progress, and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore-Davis, Tonia L; McGee, Karen B; Moore, Elaine M; Paine, Lisa L

2015-01-01

The Midwifery Legacies Project, formerly known as the OnGoing Group, was founded as an annual greeting card outreach aimed at maintaining contact with midwives as they approached retirement and beyond. In 2009, the importance of documenting personal and professional stories of midwives arose out of a bequest by a midwife who was relatively unknown outside of the community she served. The result has been the evolution of a robust collection of stories, which are known as the 20th Century Midwife Story Collection. Between 2009 and 2014, more than 120 US midwives aged 65 years or older were interviewed by a midwife, a student midwife, or a professional filmmaker. Collectively, these midwives' stories offer an intimate snapshot of the social, political, and cultural influences that have shaped US midwifery during the past half century. Individually, the stories honor and recognize midwives' contributions to the profession and the women they have served. This article details the development, progress, and future directions of the Midwifery Legacies Project. © 2015 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

Controlling the Growth of Future LEO Debris Populations with Active Debris Removal

Science.gov (United States)

Liou, J.-C.; Johnson, N. L.; Hill, N. M.

2008-01-01

Active debris removal (ADR) was suggested as a potential means to remediate the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment as early as the 1980s. The reasons ADR has not become practical are due to its technical difficulties and the high cost associated with the approach. However, as the LEO debris populations continue to increase, ADR may be the only option to preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations. An initial study was completed in 2007 to demonstrate that a simple ADR target selection criterion could be developed to reduce the future debris population growth. The present paper summarizes a comprehensive study based on more realistic simulation scenarios, including fragments generated from the 2007 Fengyun-1C event, mitigation measures, and other target selection options. The simulations were based on the NASA long-term orbital debris projection model, LEGEND. A scenario, where at the end of mission lifetimes, spacecraft and upper stages were moved to 25-year decay orbits, was adopted as the baseline environment for comparison. Different annual removal rates and different ADR target selection criteria were tested, and the resulting 200-year future environment projections were compared with the baseline scenario. Results of this parametric study indicate that (1) an effective removal strategy can be developed based on the mass and collision probability of each object as the selection criterion, and (2) the LEO environment can be stabilized in the next 200 years with an ADR removal rate of five objects per year.

Lifecycle baseline summary for ADS 6504IS isotopes facilities Deactivation Project at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-08-01

The scope of this Activity Data Sheet (ADS) is to provide a detailed plan for the Isotopes Facilities Deactivation Project (IFDP) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This project places the former isotopes production facilities in a safe, stable, and environmentally sound condition suitable for an extended period of minimum surveillance and maintenance (S ampersand M) until the facilities are included in the Decontamination and Decommissioning (D ampersand D) Program. The facilities included within this deactivation project are Buildings 3026-C, 3026-D, 3028, 3029, 3038-AHF, 3038-E, 3038-M, 3047, 3517, 7025, and the Center Circle Facilities (Buildings 3030, 3031, 3032, 3033, 3033-A, 3034, and 3118). The scope of deactivation identified in this Baseline Report include surveillance and maintenance activities for each facility, engineering, contamination control and structural stabilization of each facility, radioluminescent (RL) light removal in Building 3026, re-roofing Buildings 3030, 3118, and 3031, Hot Cells Cleanup in Buildings 3047 and 3517, Yttrium (Y) Cell and Barricades Cleanup in Building 3038, Glove Boxes ampersand Hoods Removal in Buildings 3038 and 3047, and Inventory Transfer in Building 3517. For a detailed description of activities within this Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) element, see the Level 6 and Level 7 Element Definitions in Section 3.2 of this report

Baseline Testing of the Club Car Carryall With Asymmetric Ultracapacitors

Science.gov (United States)

Eichenberg, Dennis J.

2003-01-01

The NASA John H. Glenn Research Center initiated baseline testing of the Club Car Carryall with asymmetric ultracapacitors as a way to reduce pollution in industrial settings, reduce fossil fuel consumption, and reduce operating costs for transportation systems. The Club Car Carryall provides an inexpensive approach to advance the state of the art in electric vehicle technology in a practical application. The project transfers space technology to terrestrial use via non-traditional partners, and provides power system data valuable for future space applications. The work was done under the Hybrid Power Management (HPM) Program, which includes the Hybrid Electric Transit Bus (HETB). The Carryall is a state of the art, ground up, electric utility vehicle. A unique aspect of the project was the use of a state of the art, long life ultracapacitor energy storage system. Innovative features, such as regenerative braking through ultracapacitor energy storage, are planned. Regenerative braking recovers much of the kinetic energy of the vehicle during deceleration. The Carryall was tested with the standard lead acid battery energy storage system, as well as with an asymmetric ultracapacitor energy storage system. The report concludes that the Carryall provides excellent performance, and that the implementation of asymmetric ultracapacitors in the power system can provide significant performance improvements.

Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by multi-physics and multi-SST ensemble experiments using the 60-km-mesh MRI-AGCM

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Murakami, Hiroyuki [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)/Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States); Mizuta, Ryo; Shindo, Eiki [Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Climate Research Department, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

2012-11-15

Uncertainties in projected future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are investigated using future (2075-2099) ensemble projections of global warming under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Twelve ensemble experiments are performed using three different cumulus convection schemes and four different assumptions for prescribed future sea surface temperatures (SSTs). All ensemble experiments consistently project significant reductions in global and hemispheric TC genesis numbers as well as reductions in TC frequency of occurrence (TCF) and TC genesis frequency (TGF) in the western North Pacific, South Indian Ocean, and South Pacific Ocean. TCF and TGF are projected to increase over the central Pacific which is consistent with the findings of Li et al. (2010). Inter-experimental variations of projected future changes in TGF and TC genesis number are caused mainly by differences in large-scale dynamical parameters and SST anomalies. Thermodynamic parameters are of secondary importance for variations in TGF and TC genesis number. These results imply that differences in SST spatial patterns can cause substantial variations and uncertainties in projected future changes of TGF and TC numbers at ocean-basin scales. (orig.)

Acidic deposition: State of science and technology. Report 14. Methods for projecting future changes in surface water acid-base chemistry. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thornton, K.W.; Marmorek, D.; Ryan, P.F.; Heltcher, K.; Robinson, D.

1990-09-01

The objectives of the report are to: critically evaluate methods for projecting future effects of acidic deposition on surface water acid-base chemistry; review and evaluate techniques and procedures for analyzing projection uncertainty; review procedures for estimating regional lake and stream population attributes; review the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Direct/Delayed Response Project (DDRP) methodology for projecting the effects of acidic deposition on future changes in surface water acid-base chemistry; and present the models, uncertainty estimators, population estimators, and proposed approach selected to project the effects of acidic deposition on future changes in surface water acid-base chemistry in the NAPAP 1990 Integrated Assessment and discuss the selection rationale

Summary Report for the Technical Interchange Meeting on Development of Baseline Material Properties and Design Guidelines for In-Space Manufacturing Activities

Science.gov (United States)

Prater, T. J.; Bean, Q. A.; Werkheiser, N. J.; Johnston, M. M.; Ordonez, E. A.; Ledbetter, F. E.; Risdon, D. L.; Stockman, T. J.; Sandridge, S. K. R.; Nelson, G. M.

2016-01-01

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the Agency as a whole are currently engaged in a number of in-space manufacturing (ISM) activities that have the potential to reduce launch costs, enhance crew safety, and provide the capabilities needed to undertake long-duration spaceflight. The recent 3D Printing in Zero-G experiment conducted on board the International Space Station (ISS) demonstrated that parts of acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) plastic can be manufactured in microgravity using fused deposition modeling (FDM). This project represents the beginning of the development of a capability that is critical to future NASA missions. Current and future ISM activities will require the development of baseline material properties to facilitate design, analysis, and certification of materials manufactured using in-space techniques. The purpose of this technical interchange meeting (TIM) was to bring together MSFC practitioners and experts in materials characterization and development of baseline material properties for emerging technologies to advise the ISM team as we progress toward the development of material design values, standards, and acceptance criteria for materials manufactured in space. The overall objective of the TIM was to leverage MSFC's shared experiences and collective knowledge in advanced manufacturing and materials development to construct a path forward for the establishment of baseline material properties, standards development, and certification activities related to ISM. Participants were asked to help identify research and development activities that will (1) accelerate acceptance and adoption of ISM techniques among the aerospace design community; (2) benefit future NASA programs, commercial technology developments, and national needs; and (3) provide opportunities and avenues for further collaboration.

Baseline greenhouse gas emissions for the lower Churchill hydroelectric generation project in Labrador

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LeDrew, L.; Bastien, J.; Tremblay, A.

2007-01-01

Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro has proposed to develop the hydroelectric potential of the lower Churchill River by constructing generating facilities at Gull Island and Muskrat Falls. This paper presented the results of a study that was conducted to collect baseline data on greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes/emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) from the lower Churchill River, Smallwood reservoir, and natural lakes in the upper and lower Churchill regions. The purpose of the study was to compare GHG fluxes between the lower Churchill River, Smallwood reservoir and those of the nearby natural lakes and to compare GHG fluxes between the Smallwood reservoir and those of boreal reservoirs in northern Quebec. The paper provided a description of the site and the methodology for GHG flux measurement. The results and discussion focused on physical-chemical variables and GHG fluxes. The study results were to be used in the environmental assessment of the project. It was concluded that the lower Churchill River has higher CO 2 fluxes and lower CH 4 fluxes than the Smallwood reservoir and higher CO 2 fluxes than natural lakes in the region. There was no significant difference in N 2 O fluxes between the sampled waterbodies. Both CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from the lower Churchill River were comparable to other Canadian reservoirs. 12 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

History of optical theory of reflecting telescopes and implications for future projects

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Raymond N.

1997-03-01

This contribution, The History of Optical Theory of Reflecting Telescopes and Implications for Future Projects, is a shortened form of the Karl Schwarzschild lecture given in Bochum in September 1993. Some material has been added from an invited paper given in Padua in December 1992. For a full account, with figures and tables, the reader is referred to these two papers.

Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Drought Events in the Weihe River Basin, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Yuan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Quantitative evaluation of future climate change impacts on hydrological drought characteristics is one of important measures for implementing sustainable water resources management and effective disaster mitigation in drought-prone regions under the changing environment. In this study, a modeling system for projecting the potential future climate change impacts on hydrological droughts in the Weihe River basin (WRB in North China is presented. This system consists of a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from three climate models (CMs for future streamflow projections, a probabilistic model for univariate drought assessment, and a copula-based bivariate model for joint drought frequency analysis under historical and future climates. With the observed historical climate data as the inputs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model projects an overall runoff reduction in the WRB under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. The univariate drought assessment found that although fewer hydrological drought events would occur under A1B scenario, drought duration and severity tend to increase remarkably. Moreover, the bivariate drought assessment reveals that future droughts in the same return period as the baseline droughts would become more serious. With these trends in the future, the hydrological drought situation in the WRB would be further deteriorated.

Maternal, newborn and child health needs, opportunities and preferred futures in Arusha and Ngorongoro: hearing women's voices.

Science.gov (United States)

Petrucka, Pammla; Bassendowski, Sandra; Dietrich-Leurer, Marie; Spence-Gress, Cara; Athuman, Zenath; Buza, Joram

2015-12-12

With the approaching sunset on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), Tanzania continues with its final national push towards achievement of MDG #4 and MDG #5. The Mama Kwanza Socio-economic Health Initiative (MKSHI) was introduced in the hope of contributing to improving maternal, newborn, and child health in Arusha and Ngorongoro. The MKSHI project is a holistic, inter-sectoral approach to maternal, newborn, and child health which aligns with the Government of Tanzania's Vision 2025. At the project onset, a baseline assessment was conducted to launch ongoing benchmarking, monitoring, and evaluation of the project's impacts and implications. The aim of this baseline assessment was twofold. First it was to determine the state of maternal, newborn, and child health in the two project sites. Second it was to ensure that a baseline of key indicators was established as well as identification of unique indicators relevant to the populations of interest. The baseline study was a mixed methods approach to identify maternal, newborn, and child risk factors and indicators in the two target sites. This paper focuses on the qualitative methods and findings. The qualitative component included a series of five community dialogue meetings and thirty-seven individual/dyad interviews with women, providers, and stakeholders. Initially, community meetings were held as open dialogues on maternal, newborn, and child health issues, opportunities, and preferred futures. Individual/dyad interviews were held with women, providers, and stakeholders who held unique information or experiences. Both community dialogue and interview data was analysed for themes and guiding or critical comments. Three over-arching findings emerged: What took you so long to come? How do we know what you know? and How will it change for our daughters? Participant voices are vital in ensuring the achievement of local and global efforts and preferred futures for maternal, newborn, and child health services. This

Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ettore Bernardoni

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

Aligning BIM with FM: streamlining the process for future projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Colleen Kasprzak

2012-12-01

Full Text Available A study performed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST, USA in 2004 found that owners account for approximately $10.6 billion of the $15.8 billion total inadequate interoperability costs of U.S. capital facility projects in 2002. Because of these inefficiency costs, it becomes vital that information produced during the design and construction phases of a project be transferred into operations with maximum leverage to the end users. However, very few owners have defined these informational needs or developed an integration strategy into existing maintenance management systems. To increase operational efficiency, an organization must first develop an understanding of their operating systems, as well as identify how Building Information Modeling (BIM will add value to their daily tasks. The Pennsylvania State University (PSU has a unique opportunity to diversely implement BIM processes because not only does the University act as an owner, but also as designer and construction manager on the majority of projects. The struggle that PSU faces is one that is unique only to owners with a large, existing, multifaceted building inventory. This paper outlines the current initiative by the Office of Physical Plant (OPP, the asset manager at PSU, to develop an information exchange framework between BIM and FM applications to be used internally. As a result of this research, PSU has been able to define owner operational requirements for future projects and develop a flexible integration framework to support additional BIM tasks and information exchanges.

Quantifying the health impacts of future changes in temperature in California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ostro, Bart; Rauch, Stephen; Green, Shelley

2011-01-01

Background: Several epidemiological studies demonstrate associations between high summer temperatures and increased mortality. However, the quantitative implications of projected future increases in temperature have not been well characterized. Objective: This study quantifies the effects of projected future temperatures on both mortality and morbidity in California, including the potential effects of mitigation. Data and methods: We first estimated the association between temperature and mortality for populations close to weather stations throughout the state. These dose–response estimates for mortality were then combined with local measures of current and projected changes in population, and projected changes in temperature, using a baseline of average temperatures from 1961 to 1990, for the years 2025 and 2050. The latter were based on two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2 and B1) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In addition, we assessed the impacts of future adaptation through use of air conditioners. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the likely range of estimates. Results: These analyses indicate that for the high emissions scenario, the central estimate of annual premature mortality ranges from 2100 to 4300 for the year 2025 and from 6700 to 11,300 for 2050. The highest estimates are from the models that use age-specific dose–response functions, while the low estimates are from the models that adjust for ozone. Estimates using the low emissions scenario are roughly half of these estimates. Mitigation based on our estimates of the effects of 10% and 20% increase in air conditioner use would generate reductions of 16% and 33% in the years 2025 and 2050, respectively. Conclusion: Our estimates suggest significant public health impacts associated with future projected increases in temperature.

Quantifying the health impacts of future changes in temperature in California

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ostro, Bart, E-mail: Bostro@Creal.cat [Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, California Environmental Protection Agency, Oakland, CA (United States); Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology, Barcelona (Spain); Rauch, Stephen; Green, Shelley [Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, California Environmental Protection Agency, Oakland, CA (United States)

2011-11-15

Background: Several epidemiological studies demonstrate associations between high summer temperatures and increased mortality. However, the quantitative implications of projected future increases in temperature have not been well characterized. Objective: This study quantifies the effects of projected future temperatures on both mortality and morbidity in California, including the potential effects of mitigation. Data and methods: We first estimated the association between temperature and mortality for populations close to weather stations throughout the state. These dose-response estimates for mortality were then combined with local measures of current and projected changes in population, and projected changes in temperature, using a baseline of average temperatures from 1961 to 1990, for the years 2025 and 2050. The latter were based on two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2 and B1) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In addition, we assessed the impacts of future adaptation through use of air conditioners. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the likely range of estimates. Results: These analyses indicate that for the high emissions scenario, the central estimate of annual premature mortality ranges from 2100 to 4300 for the year 2025 and from 6700 to 11,300 for 2050. The highest estimates are from the models that use age-specific dose-response functions, while the low estimates are from the models that adjust for ozone. Estimates using the low emissions scenario are roughly half of these estimates. Mitigation based on our estimates of the effects of 10% and 20% increase in air conditioner use would generate reductions of 16% and 33% in the years 2025 and 2050, respectively. Conclusion: Our estimates suggest significant public health impacts associated with future projected increases in temperature.

Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strachan, Neil

2011-01-01

Baselines are generally accepted as a key input assumption in long-term energy modelling, but energy models have traditionally been poor on identifying baselines assumptions. Notably, transparency on the current policy content of model baselines is now especially critical as long-term climate mitigation policies have been underway for a number of years. This paper argues that the range of existing energy and emissions policies are an integral part of any long-term baseline, and hence already represent a 'with-policy' baseline, termed here a Business-as-Unusual (BAuU). Crucially, existing energy policies are not a sunk effort; as impacts of existing policy initiatives are targeted at future years, they may be revised through iterative policy making, and their quantitative effectiveness requires ex-post verification. To assess the long-term role of existing policies in energy modelling, currently identified UK policies are explicitly stripped out of the UK MARKAL Elastic Demand (MED) optimisation energy system model, to generate a BAuU (with-policy) and a REF (without policy) baseline. In terms of long-term mitigation costs, policy-baseline assumptions are comparable to another key exogenous modelling assumption - that of global fossil fuel prices. Therefore, best practice in energy modelling would be to have both a no-policy reference baseline, and a current policy reference baseline (BAuU). At a minimum, energy modelling studies should have a transparent assessment of the current policy contained within the baseline. Clearly identifying and comparing policy-baseline assumptions are required for cost effective and objective policy making, otherwise energy models will underestimate the true cost of long-term emissions reductions.

Spent nuclear fuel technical baseline description, Fiscal Year 1996: Volume II, supporting data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Womack, J.C.

1995-11-01

The Technical Baseline Description documents the Project-Level functions and requirements, along with associated enabling assumptions, issues, trade studies, interfaces, and products. It is a snapshot in time of the baseline at the beginning of September 1995. It supports the individual subprojects in the development of lower-tier functions, requirements, and specifications in FY 1996. It also supports the need for Hanford site planning to be based on an integrated Hanford site systems engineering technical baseline; and is traceable to that baseline. This document replaces and supercedes WHC-SD-SNF-SD-003

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference' at national level. - Finally, the MEDEE energy demand model applied in

Earth BioGenome Project: Sequencing life for the future of life.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewin, Harris A; Robinson, Gene E; Kress, W John; Baker, William J; Coddington, Jonathan; Crandall, Keith A; Durbin, Richard; Edwards, Scott V; Forest, Félix; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Goldstein, Melissa M; Grigoriev, Igor V; Hackett, Kevin J; Haussler, David; Jarvis, Erich D; Johnson, Warren E; Patrinos, Aristides; Richards, Stephen; Castilla-Rubio, Juan Carlos; van Sluys, Marie-Anne; Soltis, Pamela S; Xu, Xun; Yang, Huanming; Zhang, Guojie

2018-04-24

Increasing our understanding of Earth's biodiversity and responsibly stewarding its resources are among the most crucial scientific and social challenges of the new millennium. These challenges require fundamental new knowledge of the organization, evolution, functions, and interactions among millions of the planet's organisms. Herein, we present a perspective on the Earth BioGenome Project (EBP), a moonshot for biology that aims to sequence, catalog, and characterize the genomes of all of Earth's eukaryotic biodiversity over a period of 10 years. The outcomes of the EBP will inform a broad range of major issues facing humanity, such as the impact of climate change on biodiversity, the conservation of endangered species and ecosystems, and the preservation and enhancement of ecosystem services. We describe hurdles that the project faces, including data-sharing policies that ensure a permanent, freely available resource for future scientific discovery while respecting access and benefit sharing guidelines of the Nagoya Protocol. We also describe scientific and organizational challenges in executing such an ambitious project, and the structure proposed to achieve the project's goals. The far-reaching potential benefits of creating an open digital repository of genomic information for life on Earth can be realized only by a coordinated international effort.

Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN over Peninsular Malaysia

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A. H. Syafrina

2014-09-01

Full Text Available A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF. New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081–2100. The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10–40 years.

PROJECT FUTURE IN SOCIO AFFECTIVE DIMENSION: HOW TO BUILD THE PERCEPTIONS OF STUDENTS SECONDARY EDUCATION IN PORTUGAL AND HIGH SCHOOL IN BRAZIL

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Marilia Frassetto de Araujo

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This research aimed to understand how the "future project" regarding the socio-affective dimension is built by high school students in Portugal and in Brazil. The project was based on the concept of culture and adolescence as a cultural construction. The definition of future project was adopted in the above mentioned dimension characterized by defining affections and passions. Through focus groups with adolescents it was possible to analyze their narratives about the future project on the socio-affective dimension; to get to know the speeches produced by them on issues regarding sexuality, gender and and sexual diversity. The survey found out that most adolescents had projects for their future. Moreover, it pointed out the differences that permeate several boys’ and girls’ behaviors. It was concluded that the questioning of these issues from ethical questions that allow teenagers to reflect on their relationships among peers, in the community, with family, responsibility and criticality is essential. And education is central to this process.

A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. P. Guillod

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM. Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i a historical baseline (1900–2006, (ii five near-future scenarios (2020–2049 and (iii five far-future scenarios (2070–2099. The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months and shorter-duration high precipitation (1–30 days, the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09 but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and

Computing the distribution of return levels of extreme warm temperatures for future climate projections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pausader, M.; Parey, S.; Nogaj, M. [EDF/R and D, Chatou Cedex (France); Bernie, D. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

2012-03-15

In order to take into account uncertainties in the future climate projections there is a growing demand for probabilistic projections of climate change. This paper presents a methodology for producing such a probabilistic analysis of future temperature extremes. The 20- and 100-years return levels are obtained from that of the normalized variable and the changes in mean and standard deviation given by climate models for the desired future periods. Uncertainty in future change of these extremes is quantified using a multi-model ensemble and a perturbed physics ensemble. The probability density functions of future return levels are computed at a representative location from the joint probability distribution of mean and standard deviation changes given by the two combined ensembles of models. For the studied location, the 100-years return level at the end of the century is lower than 41 C with an 80% confidence. Then, as the number of model simulations is low to compute a reliable distribution, two techniques proposed in the literature (local pattern scaling and ANOVA) have been used to infer the changes in mean and standard deviation for the combinations of RCM and GCM which have not been run. The ANOVA technique leads to better results for the reconstruction of the mean changes, whereas the two methods fail to correctly infer the changes in standard deviation. As standard deviation change has a major impact on return level change, there is a need to improve the models and the different techniques regarding the variance changes. (orig.)

Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

2007-01-01

-90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...

40 CFR 74.20 - Data for baseline and alternative baseline.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Data for baseline and alternative baseline. 74.20 Section 74.20 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR... baseline and alternative baseline. (a) Acceptable data. (1) The designated representative of a combustion...

Costa Rica Rainfall in Future Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Castillo Rodriguez, R. A., Sr.; Amador, J. A.; Duran-Quesada, A. M.

2017-12-01

Studies of intraseasonal and annual cycles of meteorological variables, using projections of climate change, are nowadays extremely important to improve regional socio-economic planning for countries. This is particularly true in Costa Rica, as Central America has been identified as a climate change hot spot. Today many of the economic activities in the region, especially those related to agriculture, tourism and hydroelectric power generation are linked to the seasonal cycle of precipitation. Changes in rainfall (mm/day) and in the diurnal temperature range (°C) for the periods 1950-2005 and 2006-2100 were investigated using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) constructed using the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5) data. Differences between the multi-model ensembles of the two prospective scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the retrospective baseline scenario were computed. This study highlights Costa Rica as an inflexion point of the climate change in the region and also suggests future drying conditions.

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2018-01-02

This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use service demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.

Integrated Baseline Review (IBR) Handbook

Science.gov (United States)

Fleming, Jon F.; Terrell, Stefanie M.

2018-01-01

The purpose of this handbook is intended to be a how-to guide to prepare for, conduct, and close-out an Integrated Baseline Review (IBR). It discusses the steps that should be considered, describes roles and responsibilities, tips for tailoring the IBR based on risk, cost, and need for management insight, and provides lessons learned from past IBRs. Appendices contain example documentation typically used in connection with an IBR. Note that these appendices are examples only, and should be tailored to meet the needs of individual projects and contracts.

Design Study for a Future Laguna-LBNO Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility at CERN

CERN Document Server

Alabau-Gonzalvo, J; Antoniou, F; Benedikt, M; Calviani, M; Efthymiopoulos, I; Ferrari, A; Garoby, R; Gerigk, F; Gilardoni, S; Goddard, B; Kosmicki, A; Lazaridis, C; Osborne, J; Papaphillippou, Y; Parfenova, A; Shaposhnikova, E; Steerenberg, R; Velten, P; Vincke, H

2013-01-01

The Large Apparatus studying Grand Unification and Neutrino Astrophysics (LAGUNA) study [1] investigated seven pre-selected underground sites in Europe (Finland, France, Italy, Poland, Romania, Spain and UK), capable of housing large volume detectors for terrestrial, accelerator generated and astrophysical neutrino research. The study was focused on geo-technical assessment of the sites, concluding that no show-stoppers exist for the construction of the required large underground caverns in the chosen sites. The LAGUNA-LBNO FP7/EC-funded design study extends the LAGUNA study in two key aspects: the detailed engineering of detector construction and operation, and the study of a long-baseline neutrino beam from CERN, and possibly other accelerator centres in Europe. Based on the findings of the LAGUNA study, the Pyh¨asalmi mine in Finland is chosen as prime site for the far detector location. The mine offers the deepest underground location in Europe (-1400 m) and a baseline of 2’300 km from CERN (Fig. 1). ...

Environmental baseline study of the Los Medanos Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) project area of New Mexico: a progress report. An addendum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wolfe, H.G.

1977-09-01

Sandia Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, has been conducting exploratory drilling operations for a Waste Isolation Pilot Program Eddy and Lea counties in southeast New Mexico for almost two years. Prior to the establishment of such a program, an environmental study has been carried out as a baseline for evaluation of the impact of future activities in the Los Medanos area. Data are presented on the geology; topography; climate; vegetation; and population density, diet, and seasonal movements of mammals, lizards, snakes, birds, insects, and ground-dwelling arthropods of the study area

Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes

Science.gov (United States)

Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

2017-10-01

Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.

Innovation projects and visions on the future : Ambition and commitment in the Agropark case

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoes, Anne Charlotte; Regeer, Barbara; Zweekhorst, Marjolein

2012-01-01

Since the 1980s, Dutch agricultural policy focuses on changing the agricultural sector into a more sustainable sector. In this article we explore an Agropark visioning initiative and four Agropark innovation projects to provide further understanding in how visions on the future influence innovation

ENGINEERING STUDY FOR THE 200 AREA EFFLUENT TREATMENT FACILITY (ETF) SECONDARY WASTE TREATMENT OF PROJECTED FUTURE WASTE FEEDS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LUECK, K.J.

2004-01-01

This report documents an engineering study conducted to evaluate alternatives for treating secondary waste in the secondary treatment train (STT) of the Hanford Site 200 Area Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF). The study evaluates ETF STT treatment alternatives and recommends preferred alternatives for meeting the projected future missions of the ETF. The preferred alternative(s) will process projected future ETF influents to produce a solid waste acceptable for final disposal on the Hanford Site. The main text of this report summarizes the ETF past and projected operations, lists the assumptions about projected operations that provide the basis for the engineering evaluation, and summarizes the evaluation process. The evaluation process includes identification of available modifications to the current ETF process, screens those modifications for technical viability, evaluates the technically viable alternatives, and provides conclusions and recommendations based on that evaluation

Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Baseline County-Level Migration Characteristics and Trends 1995-2000 and 2001-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.

2008-01-01

The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards. In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report uses historical, estimated, and projected population data from several Federal and State data sources to estimate baseline characteristics and trends of the region's population migration (that is, changes in a person's place of residence over time). The analysis characterizes migration by various demographic, economic, family, and household variables for the period 1995-2000. It also uses existing estimates (beginning in 2001) of the three components of population change - births, deaths, and migration - to extrapolate near-term projections of county-level migration trends through 2010. The 2010 date was chosen to provide baseline projections corresponding to a two-year recovery period following the November 2008 date that was selected for the occurrence of the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake. The baseline characteristics and projections shall assist with evaluating the effects of inflow and outflow migration trends for alternative futures in which the simulated M7.8 earthquake either does or does not occur and the impact of the event on housing and jobs, as well as community composition and regional economy changes based on dispersion of intellectual, physical, economic, and cultural capital.

Analysis of future drought characteristics in China using the regional climate model CCLM

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jinlong; Zhai, Jianqing; Jiang, Tong; Wang, Yanjun; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Run; Xiong, Ming; Su, Buda; Fischer, Thomas

2018-01-01

In this paper, the intensity, area and duration of future droughts in China are analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The SPI and SPEI are used to evaluate the simulation ability of drought characteristics with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The projected intensity and duration of future drought events are analyzed for the period 2016-2050 under three different respective concentration pathways (RCPs). The simulated and projected drought events are analyzed by applying the intensity-area-duration method. The results show that CCLM has a robust capability to simulate the average drought characteristics, while some regional disparities are not well captured, mainly the simulation of more drought events of shorter duration in Northwest China. For the future period 2016-2050, more intense dryness conditions are projected for China. An increase in evapotranspiration is found all over China, while a reduction in precipitation is apparent in the southern river basins. The increase in evapotranspiration plays an important role in the changes of future droughts over the northern river basins and southern river basins. Under RCP2.6, drought events of longer duration and with higher frequency are projected for the southwest and southeast of China. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a continuing tendency to more dry conditions is projected along a dryness band stretching from the southwest to the northeast of China. More frequent drought events of longer duration are projected in the southwestern river basins. For all future droughts, larger extents are projected, especially for events with long-term duration. The projected long-term drought events will occur more often and more severe than during the baseline period, and their central locations will likely shift towards Southeast China. The results of this study can be used to initiate and strengthen drought adaptation measures at

The challenge of defining risk-based metrics to improve food safety: inputs from the BASELINE project.

Science.gov (United States)

Manfreda, Gerardo; De Cesare, Alessandra

2014-08-01

In 2002, the Regulation (EC) 178 of the European Parliament and of the Council states that, in order to achieve the general objective of a high level of protection of human health and life, food law shall be based on risk analysis. However, the Commission Regulation No 2073/2005 on microbiological criteria for foodstuffs requires that food business operators ensure that foodstuffs comply with the relevant microbiological criteria. Such criteria define the acceptability of a product, a batch of foodstuffs or a process, based on the absence, presence or number of micro-organisms, and/or on the quantity of their toxins/metabolites, per unit(s) of mass, volume, area or batch. The same Regulation describes a food safety criterion as a mean to define the acceptability of a product or a batch of foodstuff applicable to products placed on the market; moreover, it states a process hygiene criterion as a mean indicating the acceptable functioning of the production process. Both food safety criteria and process hygiene criteria are not based on risk analysis. On the contrary, the metrics formulated by the Codex Alimentarius Commission in 2004, named Food Safety Objective (FSO) and Performance Objective (PO), are risk-based and fit the indications of Regulation 178/2002. The main aims of this review are to illustrate the key differences between microbiological criteria and the risk-based metrics defined by the Codex Alimentarius Commission and to explore the opportunity and also the possibility to implement future European Regulations including PO and FSO as supporting parameters to microbiological criteria. This review clarifies also the implications of defining an appropriate level of human protection, how to establish FSO and PO and how to implement them in practice linked to each other through quantitative risk assessment models. The contents of this review should clarify the context for application of the results collected during the EU funded project named BASELINE (www

Long-term trends in US gas supply and prices: 1993 edition of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woods, T.J.

1993-03-01

A Summary of the gas supply outlook in the 1993 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, adopted as a major input to the planning cycle of the 1994 research and development program, is presented. Significant changes were made in developing the gas supply and price trends for the 1993 edition of the projection. The GRI Hydrocarbon Model was expanded to include the Canadian hydrocarbon resource base. Thus, Canadian and lower-48 gas production and prices were developed on a fully integrated basis in the 1993 projection. The lower-48 hydrocarbon resource estimate was increased, reflecting the results of the recent National Petroleum Council gas study and ongoing GRI resource work. The effects of new technology and practice on drilling costs and exploration efficiency were included for the first time. Appendices include comparisons of supply and price trends

Capability and dependency in the Newcastle 85+ cohort study. Projections of future care needs.

Science.gov (United States)

Jagger, Carol; Collerton, Joanna C; Davies, Karen; Kingston, Andrew; Robinson, Louise A; Eccles, Martin P; von Zglinicki, Thomas; Martin-Ruiz, Carmen; James, Oliver F W; Kirkwood, Tom B L; Bond, John

2011-05-04

Little is known of the capabilities of the oldest old, the fastest growing age group in the population. We aimed to estimate capability and dependency in a cohort of 85 year olds and to project future demand for care. Structured interviews at age 85 with 841 people born in 1921 and living in Newcastle and North Tyneside, UK who were permanently registered with participating general practices. Measures of capability included were self-reported activities of daily living (ADL), timed up and go test (TUG), standardised mini-mental state examination (SMMSE), and assessment of urinary continence in order to classify interval-need dependency. To project future demand for care the proportion needing 24-hour care was applied to the 2008 England and Wales population projections of those aged 80 years and over by gender. Of participants, 62% (522/841) were women, 77% (651/841) lived in standard housing, 13% (106/841) in sheltered housing and 10% (84/841) in a care home. Overall, 20% (165/841) reported no difficulty with any of the ADLs. Men were more capable in performing ADLs and more independent than women. TUG validated self-reported ADLs. When classified by 'interval of need' 41% (332/810) were independent, 39% (317/810) required help less often than daily, 12% (94/810) required help at regular times of the day and 8% (67/810) required 24-hour care. Of care-home residents, 94% (77/82) required daily help or 24-hour care. Future need for 24-hour care for people aged 80 years or over in England and Wales is projected to increase by 82% from 2010 to 2030 with a demand for 630,000 care-home places by 2030. This analysis highlights the diversity of capability and levels of dependency in this cohort. A remarkably high proportion remain independent, particularly men. However a significant proportion of this population require 24-hour care at home or in care homes. Projections for the next 20 years suggest substantial increases in the number requiring 24-hour care due to

Future Flows Climate: an ensemble of 1-km climate change projections for hydrological application in Great Britain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Prudhomme

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The dataset Future Flows Climate was developed as part of the project ''Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications, and to enable climate change uncertainty and climate variability to be accounted for in the assessment of their possible impacts on the environment.

Future Flows Climate is derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE that is part of the basis of UKCP09 and includes projections in available precipitation (water available to hydrological processes after snow and ice storages have been accounted for and potential evapotranspiration. It corresponds to an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1950 to December 2098, each a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3. Data are provided on a 1-km grid over the HadRM3 land areas at a daily (available precipitation and monthly (PE time step as netCDF files.

Because systematic biases in temperature and precipitation were found between HadRM3-PPE and gridded temperature and precipitation observations for the 1962–1991 period, a monthly bias correction procedure was undertaken, based on a linear correction for temperature and a quantile-mapping correction (using the gamma distribution for precipitation followed by a spatial downscaling. Available precipitation was derived from the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature time series using a simple elevation-dependant snow-melt model. Potential evapotranspiration time series were calculated for each month using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equations and bias-corrected temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed from HadRM3-PPE along with latitude of the grid and the day of the year.

Future Flows Climate is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. It is the

Forecasting Sensorimotor Adaptability from Baseline Inter-Trial Correlations

Science.gov (United States)

Beaton, K. H.; Bloomberg, J. J.

2014-01-01

One of the greatest challenges surrounding adaptation to the spaceflight environment is the large variability in symptoms, and corresponding functional impairments, from one crewmember to the next. This renders preflight training and countermeasure development difficult, as a "one-size-fits-all" approach is inappropriate. Therefore, it would be highly advantageous to know ahead of time which crewmembers might have more difficulty adjusting to the novel g-levels inherent to spaceflight. Such knowledge could guide individually customized countermeasures, which would enable more efficient use of crew time, both preflight and inflight, and provide better outcomes. The primary goal of this project is to look for a baseline performance metric that can forecast sensorimotor adaptability without exposure to an adaptive stimulus. We propose a novel hypothesis that considers baseline inter-trial correlations, the trial-to-trial fluctuations in motor performance, as a predictor of individual sensorimotor adaptive capabilities. To-date, a strong relationship has been found between baseline inter-trial correlations and adaptability in two oculomotor systems. For this project, we will explore an analogous predictive mechanism in the locomotion system. METHODS: Baseline Inter-trial Correlations: Inter-trial correlations specify the relationships among repeated trials of a given task that transpire as a consequence of correcting for previous performance errors over multiple timescales. We can quantify the strength of inter-trial correlations by measuring the decay of the autocorrelation function (ACF), which describes how rapidly information from past trials is "forgotten." Processes whose ACFs decay more slowly exhibit longer-term inter-trial correlations (longer memory processes), while processes whose ACFs decay more rapidly exhibit shorterterm inter-trial correlations (shorter memory processes). Longer-term correlations reflect low-frequency activity, which is more easily

Long-term trends in U.S. gas transportation: 1992 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, June 1992. Gas Research Insights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lihn, M.L.; Woods, T.J.

1992-06-01

The paper summarizes the trends in lower-48 gas transportation in the 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand to 2010, which has been adopted as a major input to the planning cycle leading to the development of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) 1993 research and development program. The 1992 projection presents an optimistic outlook for the U.S. gas industry in which increased gas supply can be obtained at competitive prices

Baseline Testing of the EV Global E-Bike with Ultracapacitors

Science.gov (United States)

Eichenberg, Dennis J.; Kolacz, John S.; Tavernelli, Paul F.

2001-01-01

The NASA John H. Glenn Research Center initiated baseline testing of the EV Global E-Bike SX with ultracapacitors as a way to reduce pollution in urban areas, reduce fossil fuel consumption, and reduce operating costs for transportation systems. The E-Bike provides an inexpensive approach to advance the state of art in hybrid technology in a practical application. The project transfers space technology to terrestrial use via nontraditional partners, and provides power system data valuable for future space applications. The work was done under the Hybrid Power Management (HPM) Program, which includes the Hybrid Electric Transit Bus (HETB). The E-Bike is a state of the art, ground up, hybrid electrical bicycle. Unique features of the vehicle's power system include the use of an efficient, 400 W electric hub motor, and a seven-speed derailleur system that permits operation as fully electric, fully pedal, or a combination of the two. Other innovative features, such as regenerative braking through ultracapacitor energy storage, are planned. Regenerative braking recovers much of the kinetic energy of the vehicle during deceleration. A description of the E-bike, the results of performance testing, and future vehicle development plans are given in this report. The report concludes that the E-Bike provides excellent performance, and that the implementation of ultracapacitors in the power system can provide significant performance improvements.

Capital planning for operating theatres based on projecting future theatre requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheehan, Jennifer A; Tyler, Peter; Jayasinha, Hirani; Meleady, Kathleen T; Jones, Neill

2011-05-01

During 2006, NSW and ACT Health Departments jointly engaged KPMG to develop an Operating Theatre Requirements' Projection Model and an accompanying planning guideline. A research scan was carried out to identify drivers of surgical demand, theatre capacity and theatre performance, as well as locating existing approaches to modelling operating theatre requirements for planning purposes. The project delivered a Microsoft Excel-based model for projecting future operating theatre requirements, together with an accompanying guideline for use of the model and interpretation of its outputs. It provides a valuable addition to the suite of tools available to Health staff for service and capital planning. The model operates with several limitations, largely due to being data dependent, and the state and completeness of available theatre activity data. However, the operational flexibility built into the model allows users to compensate for these limitations, on a case by case basis, when the user has access to suitable, local data. The design flexibility of the model means that updating the model as improved data become available is not difficult; resulting in revisions being able to be made quickly, and disseminated to users rapidly.

Simulating future wheat yield under climate change, carbon dioxide enrichment and technology improvement in Iran. Case study: Azarbaijan region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mansouri, H.; Raei, Y.; Zaeim, A.N.

2015-07-01

Climate change and technology development can affect crop productivity in future conditions. Precise estimation of crops yield change as affected by climate and technology in the future is an effective approach for management strategies. The aim of this study was to estimate the impacts of climate change, technology improvement, CO2 enrichment, and overall impacts on wheat yield under future conditions. Wheat yield was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) compared to baseline year (2011) under two scenarios of IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) including SRES-A2 as regional economic scenario and SRES-B1 as global environmental scenario in Azarbaijan region (NW of Iran). A linear regression model, describing the relationship between wheat yield and historical year, was developed to investigate technology development effect. The decision support system for agro-technology transfer (DSSAT4.5) was used to evaluate the influence of climate change on wheat yield. The most positive effects were found for wheat yield as affected by technology in all studied regions. Under future climate change, the SRES projected a decrease in yield, especially in West Azarbaijan region. When the effects of elevated CO2 were considered, all regions resulted to increase in wheat yield. Considering all components effect in comparison with baseline (2011), yield increase would range from 5% to 38% across all times, scenarios and regions. According to our findings, it seems that we may expect a higher yield of wheat in NW Iran in the future if technology development continues as well as past years. (Author)

Quantifying the health impacts of future changes in temperature in California.

Science.gov (United States)

Ostro, Bart; Rauch, Stephen; Green, Shelley

2011-11-01

Several epidemiological studies demonstrate associations between high summer temperatures and increased mortality. However, the quantitative implications of projected future increases in temperature have not been well characterized. This study quantifies the effects of projected future temperatures on both mortality and morbidity in California, including the potential effects of mitigation. We first estimated the association between temperature and mortality for populations close to weather stations throughout the state. These dose-response estimates for mortality were then combined with local measures of current and projected changes in population, and projected changes in temperature, using a baseline of average temperatures from 1961 to 1990, for the years 2025 and 2050. The latter were based on two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2 and B1) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In addition, we assessed the impacts of future adaptation through use of air conditioners. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the likely range of estimates. These analyses indicate that for the high emissions scenario, the central estimate of annual premature mortality ranges from 2100 to 4300 for the year 2025 and from 6700 to 11,300 for 2050. The highest estimates are from the models that use age-specific dose-response functions, while the low estimates are from the models that adjust for ozone. Estimates using the low emissions scenario are roughly half of these estimates. Mitigation based on our estimates of the effects of 10% and 20% increase in air conditioner use would generate reductions of 16% and 33% in the years 2025 and 2050, respectively. Our estimates suggest significant public health impacts associated with future projected increases in temperature. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Hughes

Full Text Available Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI, Republic of Ireland (RoI and Scotland.CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i smoking prevalence and (ii physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted.Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84. In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses.Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.

Grand Junction Projects Office Remedial Action Project Building 2 public dose evaluation. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, R.

1996-05-01

Building 2 on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Grand Junction Projects Office (GJPO) site, which is operated by Rust Geotech, is part of the GJPO Remedial Action Program. This report describes measurements and modeling efforts to evaluate the radiation dose to members of the public who might someday occupy or tear down Building 2. The assessment of future doses to those occupying or demolishing Building 2 is based on assumptions about future uses of the building, measured data when available, and predictive modeling when necessary. Future use of the building is likely to be as an office facility. The DOE sponsored program, RESRAD-BUILD, Version. 1.5 was chosen for the modeling tool. Releasing the building for unrestricted use instead of demolishing it now could save a substantial amount of money compared with the baseline cost estimate because the site telecommunications system, housed in Building 2, would not be disabled and replaced. The information developed in this analysis may be used as part of an as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) cost/benefit determination regarding disposition of Building 2

SRP [Salt Repository Project] configuration management plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-01-01

This configuration management plan describes the organization, policies, and procedures that will be used on the Salt Repository Project (SRP) to implement the configuration management disciplines and controls. Configuration management is a part of baseline management. Baseline management is defined in the SRP Baseline Procedures Notebook and also includes cost and schedule baselines. Configuration management is a discipline applying technical and administrative direction and surveillance to identify and document the functional and physical characteristics of an item, to control changes to those characteristics, to record and report change processing and implementation status, and to audit the results. Configuration management is designed as a project management tool to determine and control baselines, and ensure and document all components of a project interface both physically and functionally. The purpose is to ensure that the product acquired satisfies the project's technical and operational requirements, and that the technical requirements are clearly defined and controlled throughout the development and acquisition process. 5 figs

Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Taylor

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF, a relatively recently emerged zoonosis endemic to large parts of sub-Saharan Africa that has the potential to spread beyond the continent, have profound health and socio-economic impacts, particularly in communities where resilience is already low. Here output from a new, dynamic disease model [the Liverpool RVF (LRVF model], driven by downscaled, bias-corrected climate change data from an ensemble of global circulation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project run according to two radiative forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5], is combined with results of a spatial assessment of social vulnerability to the disease in eastern Africa. The combined approach allowed for analyses of spatial and temporal variations in the risk of RVF to the end of the current century. Results for both scenarios highlight the high-risk of future RVF outbreaks, including in parts of eastern Africa to date unaffected by the disease. The results also highlight the risk of spread from/to countries adjacent to the study area, and possibly farther afield, and the value of considering the geography of future projections of disease risk. Based on the results, there is a clear need to remain vigilant and to invest not only in surveillance and early warning systems, but also in addressing the socio-economic factors that underpin social vulnerability in order to mitigate, effectively, future impacts.

Superconductors and novel ceramics for future communication technologies. Project: Cooler and cryotechnology. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haefner, H.U.; Rolff, N.; Thummes, G.

2004-02-01

The project involved the production of a 6W rate at 77K stirling chiller for a HTS telecommunication experiment on the 'International Space Station' (project partner Bosch Telecom) and the production of a prototype long-lived stirling pulsed tube chiller of 10W rate at 77K for future applications in telecommunication. The projected was terminated prematurely. The following results were obtained: 1. The low-capacity chiller 'Mono-Kaltfinger' (stirling cold finger with displacement piston) achieved up to 5.3% COP at 80 K. 2. The chilling capacity was 10 W at 80 K for a maximum compressor uptake of 250 W. 3. An efficient pulsed tube chiller was constructed, as well as 4. A long-lived compressor with flexure bearings. (orig.) [de

Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) and Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE): Conceptual Design Report. Volume 3: Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility for DUNE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Strait, James [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States); McCluskey, Elaine [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States); Lundin, Tracy [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States); Willhite, Joshua [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States); Hamernik, Thomas [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States); Papadimitriou, Vaia [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States); Marchionni, Alberto [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States); Kim, Min Jeong [National Inst. of Nuclear Physics (INFN), Frascati (Italy). National Lab. of Frascati (INFN-LNF); Nessi, Marzio [Univ. of Geneva (Switzerland); Montanari, David [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States); Heavey, Anne [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States)

2016-01-21

This volume of the LBNF/DUNE Conceptual Design Report covers the Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility for DUNE and describes the LBNF Project, which includes design and construction of the beamline at Fermilab, the conventional facilities at both Fermilab and SURF, and the cryostat and cryogenics infrastructure required for the DUNE far detector.

Autonoetic consciousness: Reconsidering the role of episodic memory in future-oriented self-projection.

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Stanley B

2016-01-01

Following the seminal work of Ingvar (1985. "Memory for the future": An essay on the temporal organization of conscious awareness. Human Neurobiology, 4, 127-136), Suddendorf (1994. The discovery of the fourth dimension: Mental time travel and human evolution. Master's thesis. University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand), and Tulving (1985. Memory and consciousness. Canadian Psychology/PsychologieCanadienne, 26, 1-12), exploration of the ability to anticipate and prepare for future contingencies that cannot be known with certainty has grown into a thriving research enterprise. A fundamental tenet of this line of inquiry is that future-oriented mental time travel, in most of its presentations, is underwritten by a property or an extension of episodic recollection. However, a careful conceptual analysis of exactly how episodic memory functions in this capacity has yet to be undertaken. In this paper I conduct such an analysis. Based on conceptual, phenomenological, and empirical considerations, I conclude that the autonoetic component of episodic memory, not episodic memory per se, is the causally determinative factor enabling an individual to project him or herself into a personal future.

Utilities and offsites design baseline. Outside Battery Limits Facility 6000 tpd SRC-I Demonstration Plant. Volume 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1984-05-25

As part of the overall Solvent Refined Coal (SRC-1) project baseline being prepared by International Coal Refining Company (ICRC), the RUST Engineering Company is providing necessary input for the Outside Battery Limits (OSBL) Facilities. The project baseline is comprised of: design baseline - technical definition of work; schedule baseline - detailed and management level 1 schedules; and cost baseline - estimates and cost/manpower plan. The design baseline (technical definition) for the OSBL Facilities has been completed and is presented in Volumes I, II, III, IV, V and VI. The OSBL technical definition is based on, and compatible with, the ICRC defined statement of work, design basis memorandum, master project procedures, process and mechanical design criteria, and baseline guidance documents. The design basis memorandum is included in Paragraph 1.3 of Volume I. The baseline design data is presented in 6 volumes. Volume I contains the introduction section and utility systems data through steam and feedwater. Volume II continues with utility systems data through fuel system, and contains the interconnecting systems and utility system integration information. Volume III contains the offsites data through water and waste treatment. Volume IV continues with offsites data, including site development and buildings, and contains raw materials and product handling and storage information. Volume V contains wastewater treatment and solid wastes landfill systems developed by Catalytic, Inc. to supplement the information contained in Volume III. Volume VI contains proprietary information of Resources Conservation Company related to the evaporator/crystallizer system of the wastewater treatment area.

A long baseline global stereo matching based upon short baseline estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jing; Zhao, Hong; Li, Zigang; Gu, Feifei; Zhao, Zixin; Ma, Yueyang; Fang, Meiqi

2018-05-01

In global stereo vision, balancing the matching efficiency and computing accuracy seems to be impossible because they contradict each other. In the case of a long baseline, this contradiction becomes more prominent. In order to solve this difficult problem, this paper proposes a novel idea to improve both the efficiency and accuracy in global stereo matching for a long baseline. In this way, the reference images located between the long baseline image pairs are firstly chosen to form the new image pairs with short baselines. The relationship between the disparities of pixels in the image pairs with different baselines is revealed by considering the quantized error so that the disparity search range under the long baseline can be reduced by guidance of the short baseline to gain matching efficiency. Then, the novel idea is integrated into the graph cuts (GCs) to form a multi-step GC algorithm based on the short baseline estimation, by which the disparity map under the long baseline can be calculated iteratively on the basis of the previous matching. Furthermore, the image information from the pixels that are non-occluded under the short baseline but are occluded for the long baseline can be employed to improve the matching accuracy. Although the time complexity of the proposed method depends on the locations of the chosen reference images, it is usually much lower for a long baseline stereo matching than when using the traditional GC algorithm. Finally, the validity of the proposed method is examined by experiments based on benchmark datasets. The results show that the proposed method is superior to the traditional GC method in terms of efficiency and accuracy, and thus it is suitable for long baseline stereo matching.

Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States

OpenAIRE

Preston, Samuel H.; Stokes, Andrew; Mehta, Neil K.; Cao, Bochen

2013-01-01

We estimate the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010?2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these estimates. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts are age 25. To these distributions, we apply death rates by current and ...

Projected changes in the future distribution and production of sessile oak forests near the xeric limit

Science.gov (United States)

Gulyás, Krisztina; Berki, Imre; Veperdi, Gábor

2017-04-01

As a result of regional climate change, most European countries are experiencing an increase in mean annual temperature and CO2 concentration and a decrease in mean annual precipitation. In low-elevation areas in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is a limiting factor, the projected climate change threatens the health, production, and potential distribution of forest ecosystems. The intensive summer droughts and commonly occurring extreme weather events create negative influences that cause health declines, changes in yield potential, and tree mortality. Due to the observed damages, attention has been focused on these problems. The impacts of climatic extremes cause difficulties in forest management; these difficulties occur more frequently in Hungary, which is a region that is the most sensitive to climatic extremes. Regional climate model simulations project that the frequency of extremely high temperatures and long-term dry periods will increase; both of these factors have negative effects on future tree species distribution and production. Thus, the aim of our study is to utilize the sessile oak (Quercus petraea) as a climate indicator tree species to investigate potential future distribution and estimate changes in growth trends. For future spatial distribution, we used the Fuzzy membership distribution model in a new Decision Support System (DSS) which was developed for the Hungarian forestry and agricultural sectors. Through study techniques we can employ DSS, which contains various environmental layers (topography, vegetation, past and projected future climate, soils, and hydrology), to create probability distribution maps. The results, based on 12 regional climate model simulations (www.ensembles-eu.org), show that the area of sessile oak forests is shrinking continuously and will continue to do so to the end of the 21st century. For future production estimations, we analysed intensive long-term growth monitoring network plots that were established in

Hellsgate Winter Range Mitigation Project; Long-term Management Plan, Project Report 1993, Final Draft.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berger, Matthew T.

1994-01-01

A study was conducted on the Hellsgate Winter Range Mitigation Project area, a 4,943 acre ranch purchased for mitigating some habitat losses associated with the original construction of Grand Coulee Dam and innundation of habitat by Lake Roosevelt. A Habitat Evaluation Procedure (HEP) study was used to determine habitat quality and quantity baseline data and future projections. Target species used in the study were sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemoinus), mink (Mustela vison), spotted sandpiper (Actiius colchicus), bobcat (Felis reufs), blue grouse (Dendragapus obscurus), and mourning dove (Zenaida macroura). From field data collected, limiting life values or HSI's (Habitat Suitability Index's) for each indicator species was determined for existing habitats on project lands. From this data a long term management plan was developed. This report is designed to provide guidance for the management of project lands in relation to the habitat cover types discussed and the indicator species used to evaluate these cover types. In addition, the plan discusses management actions, habitat enhancements, and tools that will be used to enhance, protect and restore habitats to desired conditions. Through planned management actions biodiversity and vegetative structure can be optimized over time to reduce or eliminate, limiting HSI values for selected wildlife on project lands.

Ecotaxonmic baseline evaluation of the plant species in a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The survey of the flora composition of an ecosystem is important in several environmental baseline studies. An ecotaxonomic assessment was carried out in Ase-Ndoni proposed Rivgas Refinery project site in other to find out the plant species of medicinal and other economic values. The investigation was carried out to ...

Future Urban Climate Projection in A Tropical Megacity Based on Global and Regional Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

2017-12-01

Cities in Asian developing countries experience rapid transformation in urban morphology and energy consumption, which correspondingly affects urban climate. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) in the tropic Jakarta Greater Area was conducted. Simulation was conducted during the dry months from 2006 to 2015 and agreed well with point and satellite observation. The same technology coupled with pseudo global warming (PGW) method based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario 2.6 and 8.5 was conducted to produce futuristic climate condition in 2050. Projected urban morphology and AHE in 2050s were constructed using regional urban growing model with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) among its inputs. Compact future urban configuration, based on SSP1, was coupled to RCP2.6. Unrestrained future urban configuration, based on SSP3, was coupled to RCP8.5. Results show that background warming from RCP 2.6 and 8.5 will increase background temperature by 0.55°C and 1.2°C throughout the region, respectively. Future projection of urban sprawl results to an additional 0.3°C and 0.5°C increase on average, with maximum increase of 1.1°C and 1.3°C due to urban effect for RCP2.6/compact and RCP8.5/unrestrained, respectively. Higher moisture content in urban area is indicated in the future due to higher evaporation. Change in urban roughness is likely affect slower wind velocity in urban area and sea breeze front inland penetration the future compare with current condition. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets.

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha -1  h -1  yr -1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

Organic Contamination Baseline Study on NASA JSC Astromaterial Curation Gloveboxes

Science.gov (United States)

Calaway, Michael J.; Allton, J. H.; Allen, C. C.; Burkett, P. J.

2013-01-01

Future planned sample return missions to carbon-rich asteroids and Mars in the next two decades will require strict handling and curation protocols as well as new procedures for reducing organic contamination. After the Apollo program, astromaterial collections have mainly been concerned with inorganic contamination [1-4]. However, future isolation containment systems for astromaterials, possibly nitrogen enriched gloveboxes, must be able to reduce organic and inorganic cross-contamination. In 2012, a baseline study was orchestrated to establish the current state of organic cleanliness in gloveboxes used by NASA JSC astromaterials curation labs that could be used as a benchmark for future mission designs.

The MY NASA DATA Project: Preparing Future Earth and Environmental Scientists, and Future Citizens

Science.gov (United States)

Chambers, L. H.; Phelps, C. S.; Phipps, M.; Holzer, M.; Daugherty, P.; Poling, E.; Vanderlaan, S.; Oots, P. C.; Moore, S. W.; Diones, D. D.

2008-12-01

global Earth System. These armchair explorers learn to unite datasets in a region to learn about places like and unlike where they live. In a world that's becoming smaller and smaller with the aid of technology, projects like MND prepare our students for their global future. A teacher located in an area of California strongly impacted by pollution and potential climate changes noted that this project makes available data that are very relevant to issues that will affect her students' lives. She points out that not all scientific information they currently see is in a form that is understandable to an educated citizen, and that the experience with MND will enable her students to have better than average skills not only for deciphering scientific maps and graphs; but also for creating maps and graphics that successfully convey information to others.

Long-term trends in U.S. gas supply and prices: 1991 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, April 1991. Gas research insights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woods, T.J.

1991-04-01

The report summarizes the gas supply and price outlook in the 1991 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand. Projected U.S. gas production, gas imports, and other sources of gas supply are discussed along with the sensitivity of the outlook to changes in price expectations. The critical uncertainties and issues affecting the gas supply and price outlook are discussed. Appendixes include a comparison of the 1991 and the 1989 projections of gas supply and price trends; and a description of the GRI Hydrocarbon Model

Roadmapping or development of future investments in environmental science and technology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilburn, D. (Dianne)

2002-01-01

This paper will summarize efforts in roadmapping SCFA technical targets, which could be used for selection of future projects. The timely lessons learned and insights will be valuable to other programs desiring to roadmap large amounts of workscope, but unsure how to successfully complete it, by adequately defining a strategy to develop alternatives and core technologies to ensure needed environmental technologies are available and allow delivery of viable alternatives. In early FY02, Los Alamos National Laboratory's Environmental Science and Waste Technology Program Office was working jointly with Idaho National Environmental Engineering Laboratory to define and develop science and technology mini-roadmaps. We were defining and developing these mini-roadmaps to provide direction and guidance for DOE's Environmental Management's (DOE-EM) Subsurface Contaminants Focus Area (SCFA) in their development of target technologies. DOE EM's Strategic Plan for Science and Technology provides guidance for meeting science and technology needs with a view of the desired future and the long-term strategy to attain it. Program and technology mini-roadmapping were to be used to establish priorities, set program and project direction, and identify the high-priority science and technology need areas according to this document. In the past, EM science and technology needs collection is achieved through the DOE Site Technology Coordination Groups (STCG) across the complex. A future system for needs collection has not been defined. However, there is a need for gap analyses and a technical approach for the prioritization of these needs for DOE-EM to be strategic and successful in their technology research, development, demonstration, and deployments. To define the R&D projects needed to solve particular problems and select the project with the largest potential payoff will require analysis for project selection. Mini-roadmaps could be used for setting goals and

Status and Future Perspectives of the HIE-Isolde Project at CERN

CERN Document Server

Kadi, Y; Blumenfeld, Y; Calatroni, S; Catherall, R; Fraser, M A; Goddard, B; Parchet, D; Siesling, E; Venturini Delsolaro, W; Voulot, D; Williams, L R

2012-01-01

The High Intensity and Energy (HIE)-ISOLDE project aims at several important upgrades of the present ISOLDE radioactive beam facility at CERN. The main focus lies in the energy upgrade of the post-accelerated radionuclide beams from 3 MeV/u up to 10 MeV/u through the addition of superconducting cavities. This will open the possibility of many new types of experiments including transfer reactions throughout the nuclear chart. The first stage of this upgrade involves the design, construction, installation and commissioning of two high-β cryomodules downstream of REX-ISOLDE, the existing post-accelerator. Each cryomodule houses five high-β superconducting cavities and one superconducting solenoid. Prototypes of the Nb-sputtered Quarter Wave Resonators (QWRs) cavities for the new superconducting linear accelerator have been manufactured and are undergoing RF cold tests. The project also includes a design study of improved production targets to accommodate to the future increase of proton intensity delivered by ...

IX Disposition Project - project management plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, I.G.

1994-01-01

This report presents plans for resolving saving and disposal concerns for ion exchange modules, cartridge filters and columns. This plan also documents the project baselines for schedules, cost, and technical information

From Surveillance to Intervention: Overview and Baseline Findings for the Active City of Liverpool Active Schools and SportsLinx (A-CLASS Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicola McWhannell

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper outlines the implementation of a programme of work that started with the development of a population-level children’s health, fitness and lifestyle study in 1996 (SportsLinx leading to selected interventions one of which is described in detail: the Active City of Liverpool, Active Schools and SportsLinx (A-CLASS Project. The A-CLASS Project aimed to quantify the effectiveness of structured and unstructured physical activity (PA programmes on children’s PA, fitness, body composition, bone health, cardiac and vascular structures, fundamental movement skills, physical self-perception and self-esteem. The study was a four-arm parallel-group school-based cluster randomised controlled trial (clinical trials no. NCT02963805, and compared different exposure groups: a high intensity PA (HIPA group, a fundamental movement skill (FMS group, a PA signposting (PASS group and a control group, in a two-schools-per-condition design. Baseline findings indicate that children’s fundamental movement skill competence levels are low-to-moderate, yet these skills are inversely associated with percentage body fat. Outcomes of this project will make an important contribution to the design and implementation of children’s PA promotion initiatives.

From Surveillance to Intervention: Overview and Baseline Findings for the Active City of Liverpool Active Schools and SportsLinx (A-CLASS) Project

Science.gov (United States)

McWhannell, Nicola; Henaghan, Jayne L.

2018-01-01

This paper outlines the implementation of a programme of work that started with the development of a population-level children’s health, fitness and lifestyle study in 1996 (SportsLinx) leading to selected interventions one of which is described in detail: the Active City of Liverpool, Active Schools and SportsLinx (A-CLASS) Project. The A-CLASS Project aimed to quantify the effectiveness of structured and unstructured physical activity (PA) programmes on children’s PA, fitness, body composition, bone health, cardiac and vascular structures, fundamental movement skills, physical self-perception and self-esteem. The study was a four-arm parallel-group school-based cluster randomised controlled trial (clinical trials no. NCT02963805), and compared different exposure groups: a high intensity PA (HIPA) group, a fundamental movement skill (FMS) group, a PA signposting (PASS) group and a control group, in a two-schools-per-condition design. Baseline findings indicate that children’s fundamental movement skill competence levels are low-to-moderate, yet these skills are inversely associated with percentage body fat. Outcomes of this project will make an important contribution to the design and implementation of children’s PA promotion initiatives.

Reflections on Ethical Dilemmas in Working with So-Called "Vulnerable" and "Hard-to-Reach" Groups: Experiences from the Foodways and Futures Project

Science.gov (United States)

Gombert, Karolina; Douglas, Flora; McArdle, Karen; Carlisle, Sandra

2016-01-01

This article reflects on ethical limitations and dilemmas encountered during fieldwork of the Foodways and Futures project (2013-2016). Foodways and Futures is a qualitative action research project aimed at exploring the food choices of former homeless young people (aged 16-25) in Aberdeenshire. In Scotland, where over 13,000 young people become…

Onshore wind energy potential over Iberia: present and future projections

Science.gov (United States)

Rochinha, Carlos A.; Santos, João A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2014-05-01

Onshore grid-connected wind power generation has been explored for more than three decades in the Iberian Peninsula. Further, increasing attention has been devoted to renewable energy sources in a climate change context. While advantages of wind energy are widely recognized, its distribution is not spatially homogeneous and not uniform throughout the year. Hence, understanding these spatial-temporal distributions is critical in power system planning. The present study aims at assessing the potential power output estimated from 10 m wind components simulated by a regional climate model (CCLM), driven by ERA40 reanalysis. Datasets are available on a grid with a high spatial resolution (approximately 20 km) and over a 40-yr period (1961-2000). Furthermore, several target sites, located in areas with high installed wind generation capacity, are selected for local-to-regional scale assessments. The results show that potential wind power is higher over northern Iberia, mostly in Cantabria and Galicia, while Andalucía and Cataluña record the lowest values. With respect to the intra-annual variability, summer is by far the season with the lowest potential energy outputs. Furthermore, the inter-annual variability reveals an overall downward long-term trend over the 40-yr period, particularly in the winter time series. A CCLM transient experiment, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario, is also discussed for a future period (2041-2070), after a model validation/calibration process (bias corrections). Significant changes in the wind power potential are projected for the future throughout Iberia, but their magnitude largely depends on the locations. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement.

Science.gov (United States)

van Hooidonk, Ruben; Maynard, Jeffrey; Tamelander, Jerker; Gove, Jamison; Ahmadia, Gabby; Raymundo, Laurie; Williams, Gareth; Heron, Scott F; Planes, Serge

2016-12-21

Increasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited. However, previous model-resolution projections (~1 × 1°) are too coarse to inform conservation planning. To meet the need for higher-resolution projections, we generated statistically downscaled projections (4-km resolution) for all coral reefs; these projections reveal high local-scale variation in ASB. Timing of ASB varies >10 years in 71 of the 87 countries and territories with >500 km 2 of reef area. Emissions scenario RCP4.5 represents lower emissions mid-century than will eventuate if pledges made following the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21) become reality. These pledges do little to provide reefs with more time to adapt and acclimate prior to severe bleaching conditions occurring annually. RCP4.5 adds 11 years to the global average ASB timing when compared to RCP8.5; however, >75% of reefs still experience ASB before 2070 under RCP4.5. Coral reef futures clearly vary greatly among and within countries, indicating the projections warrant consideration in most reef areas during conservation and management planning.

Baseline radiological monitoring at proposed uranium prospecting site at Rohil Sikar, Rajasthan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, Rajesh; Jha, V.N.; Sahoo, N.K.; Jha, S.K.; Tripathi, R.M.

2018-01-01

Once economically viable grades of uranium deposits are proposed for mining and processing by the industry radiological baseline studies are required for future comparison during operational phases. The information collected during such studies serve as connecting feature between regulatory compliance and technical information. Present paper summarizes the results of baseline monitoring of atmospheric 222 Rn and gamma level in the area at prospecting mining, milling and waste disposal sites of Rohil Rajasthan

Establishing Baseline Key Ecological Functions of Fish and Wildlife for Subbasin Planning, Final Report 2001.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neil, Thomas A.

2001-08-01

As we strive to manage the Columbia River Basin for its sustainable, productive, and diverse ecosystems, we are, in fact, managing these systems to provide an a array of ecological functions upon which these systems are based. These ecological functions avail themselves as an important tool with which to assess our historical and current habitat conditions, as well as proposed future or ideal conditions under differing management scenarios. So what are key ecological functions (KEFs) and which ones are involved? Key ecological functions refer to the major ecological roles played by an organism in its ecosystem that can affect environmental conditions for themselves or other species, or that directly influences other organisms (Marcot and Vander Heyden 2001). Currently, 111 KEFs are identified for fish and wildlife species as a result of Task 1 of this project. Even though the assessment phase of this project encompasses the entire Columbia River Basin, only a subset of KEFs (58) that are associated with the lotic systems, which includes 7 anadromous fish, 20 co-occurring resident fish, and 137 wildlife species linked to salmon are addressed. Since the basin has not be systematically surveyed for each fish and wildlife species, baseline conditions for each KEF are determined by developing basin-wide species range maps using the following information: wildlife-habitat type associations, county and ecoprovince occurrence, literature (like individual state atlases), and expert peer review. This approach produced a set of species range maps that depict a species potential for occurrence given the current or historic conditions. It is this potential occurrence that serves as a baseline condition to determine the key ecological functions. The results offer a framework and a set of baseline assessments that can be done with existing databases. Thus, allowing resource managers the ability to assess future management activities against this norm and guide their activities in

Delta Healthy Sprouts: Participants' Diet and Food Environment at Baseline

Science.gov (United States)

Local food environments influence the nutrition and health of area residents. This baseline analysis focuses on the food environments of women who participated in the Delta Healthy Sprouts project, a randomized, controlled, comparative trial designed to test the efficacy of two Maternal, Infant, an...

Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Klijs (Bart); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan); A.E. Kunst (Anton)

2009-01-01

textabstractObjective Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This paper tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated to proximity to death

Implementation of an Integrated Information Management System for the US DOE Hanford Tank Farms Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joyner, William Scott; Knight, Mark A.

2013-01-01

In its role as the Tank Operations Contractor at the U.S. Department of Energy's site in Hanford, WA, Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC is implementing an integrated document control and configuration management system. This system will combine equipment data with technical document data that currently resides in separate disconnected databases. The new system will provide integrated information, enabling users to more readily identify the documents that relate to a structure, system, or component and vice-versa. Additionally, the new system will automate engineering work processes through electronic workflows, and where practical and feasible provide integration with design authoring tools. Implementation of this system will improve configuration management of the technical baseline, increase work process efficiencies, support the efficient design of future large projects, and provide a platform for the efficient future turnover of technical baseline data and information

Implementation of an Integrated Information Management System for the US DOE Hanford Tank Farms Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joyner, William Scott; Knight, Mark A.

2013-11-14

In its role as the Tank Operations Contractor at the U.S. Department of Energy's site in Hanford, WA, Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC is implementing an integrated document control and configuration management system. This system will combine equipment data with technical document data that currently resides in separate disconnected databases. The new system will provide integrated information, enabling users to more readily identify the documents that relate to a structure, system, or component and vice-versa. Additionally, the new system will automate engineering work processes through electronic workflows, and where practical and feasible provide integration with design authoring tools. Implementation of this system will improve configuration management of the technical baseline, increase work process efficiencies, support the efficient design of future large projects, and provide a platform for the efficient future turnover of technical baseline data and information.

Projecting future temperature-related mortality in three largest Australian cities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Liu, De Li; Chen, Dong; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu

2016-01-01

We estimated net annual temperature-related mortality in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Australia using 62 global climate model projections under three IPPC SRES CO_2 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). In all cities, all scenarios resulted in increases in summer temperature-related deaths for future decades, and decreases in winter temperature-related deaths. However, Brisbane and Sydney will increase the net annual temperature-related deaths in the future, while a slight decrease will happen in Melbourne. Additionally, temperature-related mortality will largely increase beyond the summer (including January, February, March, November and December) in Brisbane and Sydney, while temperature-related mortality will largely decrease beyond the winter in Melbourne. In conclusion, temperature increases for Australia are expected to result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city. In particular, the seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths will be shifted. - Temperature increases result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city in Australia.

Project Shikamana: Baseline Findings From a Community Empowerment-Based Combination HIV Prevention Trial Among Female Sex Workers in Iringa, Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Kerrigan, Deanna; Mbwambo, Jessie; Likindikoki, Samuel; Beckham, Sarah; Mwampashi, Ard; Shembilu, Catherine; Mantsios, Andrea; Leddy, Anna; Davis, Wendy; Galai, Noya

2017-01-01

Community empowerment approaches have been found to be effective in responding to HIV among female sex workers (FSWs) in South Asia and Latin America. To date, limited rigorous evaluations of these approaches have been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. A phase II community randomized controlled trial is being conducted in Iringa, Tanzania, to evaluate the effectiveness of a community empowerment-based combination HIV prevention model (Project Shikamana) among a stratified sample of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected FSWs. Cohort members were recruited from entertainment venues across 2 communities in the region using time-location sampling. All study participants gave consent, and were surveyed and screened for HIV at baseline. Primary biological study outcomes are viral suppression among the HIV-infected and remaining free of HIV among HIV-uninfected women. A cohort of 496 FSWs was established and is currently under follow-up. Baseline HIV prevalence was 40.9% (203/496). Among HIV-infected FSWs, 30.5% (62/203) were previously aware of their HIV status; among those who were aware, 69.4% were on antiretroviral therapy (43/62); and for those on antiretroviral therapy, 69.8% (30/43) were virally suppressed. Factors associated with both HIV infection and viral suppression at baseline included community, age, number of clients, and substance use. Amount of money charged per client and having tested for sexually transmitted infection in the past 6 months were protective for HIV infection. Social cohesion among FSWs was protective for viral suppression. Significant gaps exist in HIV service coverage and progress toward reaching the 90-90-90 goals among FSWs in Iringa, Tanzania. Community empowerment approaches hold promise given the high HIV prevalence, limited services and stigma, discrimination, and violence.

Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests

Science.gov (United States)

Hussain, Mubasher; Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan; Mustafa, Muhammad Raza Ul; Mahmood, Rashid; Jia, Shaofeng

2017-10-01

We present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most suitable GCMs (i.e. ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, and GFDL-ESM2M) and their mean ensemble (B3MMM) was used to project the future precipitation over the RRB. Historical (1976-2005) and future (2011-2100) precipitation ensembles of B3MMM were used to perturb the stochastically generated future precipitation over 25 rainfall stations in the river basin. The B3MMM exhibited a significant increase in precipitation during 2080s, up to 12 and 8% increase in annual precipitation over upper and lower RRB, respectively, under RCP8.5, and up to 7% increase in annual precipitation under RCP4.5. On the seasonal scale, Mann-Kendal trend test estimated statistically significant positive trend in the future precipitation during all seasons; except September to November when we only noted significant positive trend for the lower RRB under RCP4.5. Overall, at the end of the twenty-first century, an increase in annual precipitation is noteworthy in the whole RRB, with 7 and 10% increase in annual precipitation under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, respectively.

Outlook for coastal plain forests: a subregional report from the Southern Forest Futures Project

Science.gov (United States)

Kier Klepzig; Richard Shelfer; Zanethia Choice

2014-01-01

The U.S. Coastal Plain consists of seven sections: the Northern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic, Peninsular Florida, Southern Gulf, Middle Gulf-East, Middle Gulf-West, and Western Gulf. It covers a large area, consists of a diverse array of habitats, and supports a diverse array of uses. This report presents forecasts from the Southern Forest Futures Project that are...

Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Sudeepkumar, B. L.; Babu, C. A.; Varikoden, Hamza

2018-02-01

The effect of global climate change on Indian summer monsoon has been analysed with special emphasis on active-break cycle. The changes in intensity and duration of active and break monsoon conditions towards the end of the century are studied by using 850 hPa zonal circulations. The analysis is carried out using twenty year climatology of historical period (1986-2005) and future projections (2080-2099) simulated as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Models are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The models that effectively capture the circulation pattern of monsoon (JJAS) are considered for assessing the future climate in RCP 4.5 scenario. They are CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR. During the southwest monsoon period, the ensemble mean of models projects a strengthening of the wind speed towards north (north of 15°N) and weakening to the southern region (especially south of 12°N) which facilitates wetting of northern Indian regions and drying of southern peninsular regions. In the case of active-break conditions, the active spells are found to be strengthening over northern India and weakening over the peninsular India, the break spells intensify over southern tip of peninsular India indicating intense breaks. Increased propensity of short intense active days and decreased propensity of long active days are also projected by the models. The number of break spells does not show any significant changes.

Baseline Preferences for Daily, Event-Driven, or Periodic HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis among Gay and Bisexual Men in the PRELUDE Demonstration Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefanie J. Vaccher

2017-12-01

Full Text Available IntroductionThe effectiveness of daily pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP is well established. However, there has been increasing interest in non-daily dosing schedules among gay and bisexual men (GBM. This paper explores preferences for PrEP dosing schedules among GBM at baseline in the PRELUDE demonstration project.Materials and methodsIndividuals at high-risk of HIV were enrolled in a free PrEP demonstration project in New South Wales, Australia, between November 2014 and April 2016. At baseline, they completed an online survey containing detailed behavioural, demographic, and attitudinal questions, including their ideal way to take PrEP: daily (one pill taken every day, event-driven (pills taken only around specific risk events, or periodic (daily dosing during periods of increased risk.ResultsOverall, 315 GBM (98% of study sample provided a preferred PrEP dosing schedule at baseline. One-third of GBM expressed a preference for non-daily PrEP dosing: 20% for event-driven PrEP, and 14% for periodic PrEP. Individuals with a trade/vocational qualification were more likely to prefer periodic to daily PrEP [adjusted odds ratio (aOR = 4.58, 95% confidence intervals (95% CI: (1.68, 12.49], compared to individuals whose highest level of education was high school. Having an HIV-positive main regular partner was associated with strong preference for daily, compared to event-driven PrEP [aOR = 0.20, 95% CI: (0.04, 0.87]. Participants who rated themselves better at taking medications were more likely to prefer daily over periodic PrEP [aOR = 0.39, 95% CI: (0.20, 0.76].DiscussionIndividuals’ preferences for PrEP schedules are associated with demographic and behavioural factors that may impact on their ability to access health services and information about PrEP and patterns of HIV risk. At the time of data collection, there were limited data available about the efficacy of non-daily PrEP schedules, and clinicians only recommended daily PrEP to

International research and development projects in nuclear energy: Experience and future prospects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strohl, P.

1983-01-01

From the very beginning nuclear energy appeared as a fruitful field for international co-operation and particularly for international projects and joint ventures. By pooling scientific, technical and financial resources, the participating countries sought to promote the development of technology and the transition of nuclear energy to the industrial stage. Governments and therefore intergovernmental organizations were the driving force behind the establishment of joint projects in various R and D sectors, often in association with industry and private research institutes. The situation changed considerably from the end of the 1960s onwards. Despite some remarkable technical achievements, international co-operation did not develop to the extent predicted at the outset. Industry took over in the exploitation of proven technologies, and industrial co-operation agreements have become an important feature in some key areas of nuclear energy. This trend raises questions as to the future of joint R and D projects organized through intergovernmental co-operation. Although such projects are still very useful, they tend to be concentrated in those few sectors which continue to be of direct interest to the Governments; for instance, fundamental research, radioactive waste management and nuclear safety. The position of nuclear energy has changed, and the benefits to be drawn from this form of international co-operation must be critically re-assessed accordingly. While advantage to be gained from international projects for countries which are the most advanced in the development of nuclear energy is not the same as it was at the beginning, the transfer of experience and knowledge to less advanced countries is still the main concern of projects dealing with safety and regulatory matters. The experience thus gained provides a very useful insight into the legal and institutional framework of joint projects

Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Kunst, Anton E.

2011-01-01

Objective: Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild

The current shortage and future surplus of doctors: a projection of the future growth of the Japanese medical workforce.

Science.gov (United States)

Takata, Hideaki; Nagata, Hiroshi; Nogawa, Hiroki; Tanaka, Hiroshi

2011-05-27

Starting in the late 1980s, the Japanese government decreased the number of students accepted into medical school each year in order to reduce healthcare spending. The result of this policy is a serious shortage of doctors in Japan today, which has become a social problem in recent years. In an attempt to solve this problem, the Japanese government decided in 2007 to increase the medical student quota from 7625 to 8848. Furthermore, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), Japan's ruling party after the 2009 election, promised in their manifesto to increase the medical student quota to 1.5 times what it was in 2007, in order to raise the number of medical doctors to more than 3.0 per 1000 persons. It should be noted, however, that this rapid increase in the medical student quota may bring about a serious doctor surplus in the future, especially because the population of Japan is decreasing.The purpose of this research is to project the future growth of the Japanese medical doctor workforce from 2008 to 2050 and to forecast whether the proposed additional increase in the student quota will cause a doctor surplus. Simulation modeling of the Japanese medical workforce. Even if the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ fails, the number of practitioners is projected to increase from 286 699 (2.25 per 1000 persons) in 2008 to 365 533 (over the national numerical goal of 3.0 per 1000) in 2024. The number of practitioners per 1000 persons is projected to further increase to 3.10 in 2025, to 3.71 in 2035, and to 4.69 in 2050. If the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ is realized, the total workforce is projected to rise to 392 331 (3.29 per 1000 persons) in 2025, 464 296 (4.20 per 1,000 persons) in 2035, and 545 230 (5.73 per 1000 persons) in 2050. The plan to increase the medical student quota will bring about a serious doctor surplus in the long run.

Future Circular Collider Study FCC-he Baseline Parameters

CERN Document Server

Bruning, Oliver; Klein, Max; Pellegrini, Dario; Schulte, Daniel; Zimmermann, Frank

2017-01-01

Initial considerations are presented on the FCC-he, the electron-hadron collider con guration within the Future Circular Collider study. This note considers arguments for the choice of the electron beam energy based on physics, ep scattering kinematics and cost. The default con guration for the electron accelerator, as for the LHeC, is chosen to be a multi-turn energy recovery linac external to the proton beam tunnel. The main accelerator parameters of the FCC-he are discussed, assuming the concurrent operation of ep with the 100TeV cms energy pp collider. These are compared with the LHeC design concept, for increased performance as for a Higgs facility using the HL-LHC, and also the high energy HE-LHC ep collider configuration. Initial estimates are also provided for the luminosity performance of electron-ion colliders for the 60 GeV electron ERL when combined with the LHC, the HE-LHC and the FCC ion beams.

Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching.

Science.gov (United States)

Logan, Cheryl A; Dunne, John P; Eakin, C Mark; Donner, Simon D

2014-01-01

Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming-induced bleaching remains largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias-corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the preindustrial period through 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a preindustrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method overpredicts the present-day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2-10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20-80% compared with the 'no adaptive response' prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high-frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high-frequency bleaching by ca. 10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and

NETWORK DESIGN IN CLOSE-RANGE PHOTOGRAMMETRY WITH SHORT BASELINE IMAGES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Barazzetti

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The avaibility of automated software for image-based 3D modelling has changed the way people acquire images for photogrammetric applications. Short baseline images are required to match image points with SIFT-like algorithms, obtaining more images than those necessary for “old fashioned” photogrammetric projects based on manual measurements. This paper describes some considerations on network design for short baseline image sequences, especially on precision and reliability of bundle adjustment. Simulated results reveal that the large number of 3D points used for image orientation has very limited impact on network precision.

Evaluating experience with electricity generating GHG mitigation projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellis, J.

2003-07-01

Several programmes have been initiated to encourage the development of projects that mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases. Recent programmes have been undertaken at the national level, such as the Dutch five-track approach, including contracts with multilateral institutions, regional development banks, private banks, bilateral contracts with countries, participation in carbon funds and the ERUPT and CERUPT tenders, Japanese Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) feasibility studies, and the more recent Finnish, Austrian and Italian JI/CDM programmes. International programmes, such as the World Bank's Prototype Carbon Fund (and other WB carbon funds), have also been initiated. Individual projects not belonging to particular programmes have also been initiated under the pilot phase of 'activities implemented jointly' (AIJ) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or developed as CDM or Joint Implementation (JI) projects. Some CDM project activities have been formally submitted to the CDM's Executive Board (EB), who approved the first set of baseline and monitoring methodologies for CDM project activities in July 2003. There is a large variety in the type of projects that have been put forward. These include energy, industry, forestry and waste projects. This paper will focus on CDM-type projects that generate grid-connected electricity for several reasons: demand for electricity is growing rapidly in many potential host countries; many projects in the electricity sector have been developed as potential CDM and JI projects; assessing additionality and baselines is arguably more difficult for projects in the electricity sector (where a range of project types may occur as part of business-as-usual activities) than for end-of-pipe projects such as landfill gas capture and flaring or decomposition of F-gases; much work has been done on assessing appropriate methods to determine baselines in the electricity sector, at the

Evaluating the response of Lake Prespa (SW Balkan) to future climate change projections from a high-resolution model

Science.gov (United States)

van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos

2017-04-01

The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change. Projections suggest that the Balkans will experience precipitation and runoff decreases of up to 30% by 2100. However, these projections show large regional spatial variability. Mediterranean lake-wetland systems are particularly threatened by projected climate changes that compound increasingly intensive human impacts (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of individual lake-wetland hydrological responses to future climate changes, which requires fine-resolution projections and a good understanding of the impact of hydro-climate variability on individual lakes. Climate change may directly affect lake level (variability), volume and water temperatures. In turn, these variables influence lake-ecology, habitats and water quality. Land-use intensification and water abstraction multiply these climate-driven changes. To date, there are no projections of future water level and -temperature of individual Mediterranean lakes under future climate scenarios. These are, however, of crucial importance to steer preservation strategies on the relevant catchment-scale. Here we present the first projections of water level and -temperature of the Prespa Lakes covering the period 2071-2100. These lakes are of global significance for biodiversity, and of great regional socio-economic importance as a water resource and tourist attraction. Impact projections are assessed by the Regional Climate Model RCA4 of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) driven by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology global climate model MPI-ESM-LR under two RCP future emissions scenarios, the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, with the simulations carried out in the framework of EURO-CORDEX. Temperature, evapo(transpi)ration and

Site Outcomes Baseline Multi Year Work Plan Volume 1, River Corridor Restoration Baseline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wintczak, T.M.

2001-01-01

The River Corridor Restoration volume is a compilation of Hanford Site scope, which excludes the approximately 194 km 2 Central Plateau. The River Corridor scope is currently contractually assigned to Fluor Hanford, Bechtel Hanford, inc., DynCorp, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and others. The purpose of this project specification is to provide an overall scoping document for the River Corridor Restoration volume, and to provide a link with the overall Hanford Site River Corridor scope. Additionally, this specification provides an integrated and consolidated source of information for the various scopes, by current contract, for the River Corridor Restoration Baseline. It identifies the vision, mission, and goals, as well as the operational history of the Hanford Site, along with environmental setting and hazards

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada's boreal forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Tremblay, Junior A; Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R; Price, David T; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as "drivers of change") were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada's boreal forest.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Junior A Tremblay

Full Text Available Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as "drivers of change" were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus, a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5. However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of

Mass hierarchy sensitivity of medium baseline reactor neutrino experiments with multiple detectors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Hong-Xin, E-mail: hxwang@iphy.me [Department of Physics, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Zhan, Liang; Li, Yu-Feng; Cao, Guo-Fu [Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Chen, Shen-Jian [Department of Physics, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China)

2017-05-15

We report the neutrino mass hierarchy (MH) determination of medium baseline reactor neutrino experiments with multiple detectors, where the sensitivity of measuring the MH can be significantly improved by adding a near detector. Then the impact of the baseline and target mass of the near detector on the combined MH sensitivity has been studied thoroughly. The optimal selections of the baseline and target mass of the near detector are ∼12.5 km and ∼4 kton respectively for a far detector with the target mass of 20 kton and the baseline of 52.5 km. As typical examples of future medium baseline reactor neutrino experiments, the optimal location and target mass of the near detector are selected for the specific configurations of JUNO and RENO-50. Finally, we discuss distinct effects of the reactor antineutrino energy spectrum uncertainty for setups of a single detector and double detectors, which indicate that the spectrum uncertainty can be well constrained in the presence of the near detector.

Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

Acceleration and Counteraction of Changes in Vegetation Seasonality and Patterns using CMIP5 Projections from Different ESMs.

Science.gov (United States)

Chavaillaz, Y.; Joussaume, S.; De Noblet-Decoudre, N.

2017-12-01

Most climatological studies characterize future climate change as the evolution between a fixed current baseline and the future. Considering the pace of future climate change is however of major importance, since it may strongly influence how we experience climate hazards. To complement previous work related to the pace of temperature and precipitation changes, we propose here to study how fast vegetation seasonality and patterns of climate change evolve in different future configurations according to CMIP5 simulations of several Earth system models. The pace is defined as the difference in relevant metrics between two successive 20-year periods, i.e. with a continually moving baseline. Shifts of vegetation groups and changes in the characteristics of the seasonal cycle are considered. Both accelerate in close relationship with the warming rate regardless of the selected scenario, but they balance each other out, especially for trees in northern mid- and high-latitudes. Efforts are nevertheless strongly needed to harmonize the representation of vegetation in new versions of model inter-comparison projects, in order to properly conduct multi-model analyses related to vegetation changes.

Projecting climate effects on birds and reptiles of the Southwestern United States

Science.gov (United States)

van Riper, Charles; Hatten, James R.; Giermakowski, J. Tomasz; Mattson, David; Holmes, Jennifer A.; Johnson, Matthew J.; Nowak, Erika M.; Ironside, Kirsten; Peters, Michael; Heinrich, Paul; Cole, K.L.; Truettner, C.; Schwalbe, Cecil R.

2014-01-01

We modeled the current and future breeding ranges of seven bird and five reptile species in the Southwestern United States with sets of landscape, biotic (plant), and climatic global circulation model (GCM) variables. For modeling purposes, we used PRISM data to characterize the climate of the Western United States between 1980 and 2009 (baseline for birds) and between 1940 and 2009 (baseline for reptiles). In contrast, we used a pre-selected set of GCMs that are known to be good predictors of southwestern climate (five individual and one ensemble GCM), for the A1B emission scenario, to characterize future climatic conditions in three time periods (2010–39; 2040–69; and, 2070–99). Our modeling approach relied on conceptual models for each target species to inform selection of candidate explanatory variables and to interpret the ecological meaning of developed probabilistic distribution models. We employed logistic regression and maximum entropy modeling techniques to create a set of probabilistic models for each target species. We considered climatic, landscape, and plant variables when developing and testing our probabilistic models. Climatic variables included the maximum and minimum mean monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation for three time periods. Landscape features included terrain ruggedness and insolation. We also considered plant species distributions as candidate explanatory variables where prior ecological knowledge implicated a strong association between a plant and animal species. Projected changes in range varied widely among species, from major losses to major gains. Breeding bird ranges exhibited greater expansions and contractions than did reptile species. We project range losses for Williamson’s sapsucker and pygmy nuthatch of a magnitude that could move these two species close to extinction within the next century. Although both species currently have a relatively limited distribution, they can be locally common, and neither

Developing RESRAD-BASELINE for environmental baseline risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, Jing-Jy.

1995-01-01

RESRAD-BASELINE is a computer code developed at Argonne developed at Argonne National Laboratory for the US Department of Energy (DOE) to perform both radiological and chemical risk assessments. The code implements the baseline risk assessment guidance of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 1989). The computer code calculates (1) radiation doses and cancer risks from exposure to radioactive materials, and (2) hazard indexes and cancer risks from exposure to noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic chemicals, respectively. The user can enter measured or predicted environmental media concentrations from the graphic interface and can simulate different exposure scenarios by selecting the appropriate pathways and modifying the exposure parameters. The database used by PESRAD-BASELINE includes dose conversion factors and slope factors for radionuclides and toxicity information and properties for chemicals. The user can modify the database for use in the calculation. Sensitivity analysis can be performed while running the computer code to examine the influence of the input parameters. Use of RESRAD-BASELINE for risk analysis is easy, fast, and cost-saving. Furthermore, it ensures in consistency in methodology for both radiological and chemical risk analyses

Establishing baseline key ecological functions of fish and wildlife for subbasin planning, final report 2001.; FINAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neil, Thomas A.

2001-01-01

As we strive to manage the Columbia River Basin for its sustainable, productive, and diverse ecosystems, we are, in fact, managing these systems to provide an a array of ecological functions upon which these systems are based. These ecological functions avail themselves as an important tool with which to assess our historical and current habitat conditions, as well as proposed future or ideal conditions under differing management scenarios. So what are key ecological functions (KEFs) and which ones are involved? Key ecological functions refer to the major ecological roles played by an organism in its ecosystem that can affect environmental conditions for themselves or other species, or that directly influences other organisms (Marcot and Vander Heyden 2001). Currently, 111 KEFs are identified for fish and wildlife species as a result of Task 1 of this project. Even though the assessment phase of this project encompasses the entire Columbia River Basin, only a subset of KEFs (58) that are associated with the lotic systems, which includes 7 anadromous fish, 20 co-occurring resident fish, and 137 wildlife species linked to salmon are addressed. Since the basin has not be systematically surveyed for each fish and wildlife species, baseline conditions for each KEF are determined by developing basin-wide species range maps using the following information: wildlife-habitat type associations, county and ecoprovince occurrence, literature (like individual state atlases), and expert peer review. This approach produced a set of species range maps that depict a species potential for occurrence given the current or historic conditions. It is this potential occurrence that serves as a baseline condition to determine the key ecological functions. The results offer a framework and a set of baseline assessments that can be done with existing databases. Thus, allowing resource managers the ability to assess future management activities against this norm and guide their activities in

OCRWM baseline management procedure for document identifiers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-03-01

This procedure establishes a uniform numbering system (document identifier) for all Program and project technical, cost, and schedule baselines, and selected management and procurement documents developed for and controlled by the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) for the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS). The document identifier defined in this procedure is structured to ensure that the relational integrity between configuration items (CIs) and their associated documentation and software is maintained, traceable, categorical, and retrievable for the life of the program

Large-scale water projects in the developing world: Revisiting the past and looking to the future

Science.gov (United States)

Sivakumar, Bellie; Chen, Ji

2014-05-01

During the past half a century or so, the developing world has been witnessing a significant increase in freshwater demands due to a combination of factors, including population growth, increased food demand, improved living standards, and water quality degradation. Since there exists significant variability in rainfall and river flow in both space and time, large-scale storage and distribution of water has become a key means to meet these increasing demands. In this regard, large dams and water transfer schemes (including river-linking schemes and virtual water trades) have been playing a key role. While the benefits of such large-scale projects in supplying water for domestic, irrigation, industrial, hydropower, recreational, and other uses both in the countries of their development and in other countries are undeniable, concerns on their negative impacts, such as high initial costs and damages to our ecosystems (e.g. river environment and species) and socio-economic fabric (e.g. relocation and socio-economic changes of affected people) have also been increasing in recent years. These have led to serious debates on the role of large-scale water projects in the developing world and on their future, but the often one-sided nature of such debates have inevitably failed to yield fruitful outcomes thus far. The present study aims to offer a far more balanced perspective on this issue. First, it recognizes and emphasizes the need for still additional large-scale water structures in the developing world in the future, due to the continuing increase in water demands, inefficiency in water use (especially in the agricultural sector), and absence of equivalent and reliable alternatives. Next, it reviews a few important success and failure stories of large-scale water projects in the developing world (and in the developed world), in an effort to arrive at a balanced view on the future role of such projects. Then, it discusses some major challenges in future water planning

The TRIDEC Project: Future-Saving FOSS GIS Applications for Tsunami Early Warning

Science.gov (United States)

Loewe, P.; Wächter, J.; Hammitzsch, M.

2011-12-01

The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 killed over 240,000 people in 14 countries and inundated the affected shorelines with waves reaching heights up to 30m. This natural disaster coincided with an information catastrophy, as potentially life-saving early warning information existed, yet no means were available to deliver it to the communities under imminent threat. Tsunami Early Warning Capabilities have improved in the meantime by continuing development of modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). However, recent tsunami events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key challenge for ongoing TEWS research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of reliable early warning messages. Since 2004, the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All TRIDEC developments are based on Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) components and industry standards where-ever possible. Tsunami Early Warning in TRIDEC is also based on mature system architecture models to ensure long-term usability and the flexibility to adapt to future generations of Tsunami sensors. All open source software produced by the project consortium are foreseen to be published on FOSSLAB, a publicly available

In-Space Manufacturing Baseline Property Development

Science.gov (United States)

Stockman, Tom; Schneider, Judith; Prater, Tracie; Bean, Quincy; Werkheiser, Nicki

2016-01-01

The In-Space Manufacturing (ISM) project at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center currently operates a 3D FDM (fused deposition modeling) printer onboard the International Space Station. In order to enable utilization of this capability by designer, the project needs to establish characteristic material properties for materials produced using the process. This is difficult for additive manufacturing since standards and specifications do not yet exist for these technologies. Due to availability of crew time, there are limitations to the sample size which in turn limits the application of the traditional design allowables approaches to develop a materials property database for designers. In this study, various approaches to development of material databases were evaluated for use by designers of space systems who wish to leverage in-space manufacturing capabilities. This study focuses on alternative statistical techniques for baseline property development to support in-space manufacturing.

Pointing the Way to the Future of Project Management: How the Past and Present Point Towards Project Management's Future

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Ballister, Robert

2003-01-01

.... The lessons learned from those projects, coupled with a look at project management history in general, will be checked against a current project management theory to determine if the focus of today's...

Projecting the Future for Design Science Research: An Action‐Case Based Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baskerville, Richard; Pries-Heje, Jan

2015-01-01

and theories appears to be a key challenge. In this paper we commence with a DESRIST paper from 2012 that instantiated design principles in an artifact for a bank. That paper included plans and techniques for future use of its principles (propagation), including prescriptions for a five-phase adoption process...... or theories have stimulated many actual projections. We demonstrate these concepts in a case study of propagation: a chemical manufacturer and service provider that adopted the design principles arising from that 2012 DESRIST banking-based design science research. We conclude that generalizability is too well...

Baseline disability in activities of daily living predicts dementia risk even after controlling for baseline global cognitive ability and depressive symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Fauth, Elizabeth B; Schwartz, Sarah; Tschanz, Joann T; Østbye, Truls; Corcoran, Christopher; Norton, Maria C

2013-06-01

Late-life disability in activities of daily living (ADL) is theorized to be driven by underlying cognitive and/or physical impairment, interacting with psychological and environmental factors. Although we expect that cognitive deficits would explain associations between ADL disability and dementia risk, the current study examined ADL as a predictor of future dementia after controlling for global cognitive status. The population-based Cache County Memory Study (N = 3547) assessed individuals in four triennial waves (average age 74.9 years, years of education 13.36 years; 57.9% were women). Cox proportional hazards regression models assessed whether baseline ADL disability (presence of 2+ Instrumental ADL and/or 1+ Personal ADL) predicted incident dementia after controlling for APOE status, gender, age, baseline cognitive ability (Modified Mini-mental State Exam, 3MS-R; adjusted for education level), and baseline depressive symptoms (Diagnostic Interview Schedule). Over the course of study, 571 cases of incident dementia were identified through in-depth cognitive assessment, ending in expert consensus diagnosis. Results from Cox models suggest that ADL disability is a statistically significant predictor of incident dementia (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.83, p controlling for covariates. Findings suggest that ADL disability offers unique contributions in risk for incident dementia, even after controlling for global cognitive status. We discuss how physical impairment and executive function may play important roles in this relationship, and how ADL is useful, not just a diagnostic tool at, or after dementia onset, but also as a risk factor for future dementia, even in individuals not impaired on global cognitive tests. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada’s boreal forest

Science.gov (United States)

Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R.; Price, David T.; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as “drivers of change”) were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and

Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by TOPALS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joop de Beer

2012-10-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND TOPALS is a new relational model for smoothing and projecting age schedules. The model is operationally simple, flexible, and transparent. OBJECTIVE This article demonstrates how TOPALS can be used for both smoothing and projecting age-specific mortality for 26 European countries and compares the results of TOPALS with those of other smoothing and projection methods. METHODS TOPALS uses a linear spline to describe the ratios between the age-specific death probabilities of a given country and a standard age schedule. For smoothing purposes I use the average of death probabilities over 15 Western European countries as standard, whereas for projection purposes I use an age schedule of 'best practice' mortality. A partial adjustment model projects how quickly the death probabilities move in the direction of the best-practice level of mortality. RESULTS On average, TOPALS performs better than the Heligman-Pollard model and the Brass relational method in smoothing mortality age schedules. TOPALS can produce projections that are similar to those of the Lee-Carter method, but can easily be used to produce alternative scenarios as well. This article presents three projections of life expectancy at birth for the year 2060 for 26 European countries. The Baseline scenario assumes a continuation of the past trend in each country, the Convergence scenario assumes that there is a common trend across European countries, and the Acceleration scenario assumes that the future decline of death probabilities will exceed that in the past. The Baseline scenario projects that average European life expectancy at birth will increase to 80 years for men and 87 years for women in 2060, whereas the Acceleration scenario projects an increase to 90 and 93 years respectively. CONCLUSIONS TOPALS is a useful new tool for demographers for both smoothing age schedules and making scenarios.

Decomposing the uncertainty in climate impact projections of Dynamic Vegetation Models: a test with the forest models LANDCLIM and FORCLIM

Science.gov (United States)

Cailleret, Maxime; Snell, Rebecca; von Waldow, Harald; Kotlarski, Sven; Bugmann, Harald

2015-04-01

Different levels of uncertainty should be considered in climate impact projections by Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs), particularly when it comes to managing climate risks. Such information is useful to detect the key processes and uncertainties in the climate model - impact model chain and may be used to support recommendations for future improvements in the simulation of both climate and biological systems. In addition, determining which uncertainty source is dominant is an important aspect to recognize the limitations of climate impact projections by a multi-model ensemble mean approach. However, to date, few studies have clarified how each uncertainty source (baseline climate data, greenhouse gas emission scenario, climate model, and DVM) affects the projection of ecosystem properties. Focusing on one greenhouse gas emission scenario, we assessed the uncertainty in the projections of a forest landscape model (LANDCLIM) and a stand-scale forest gap model (FORCLIM) that is caused by linking climate data with an impact model. LANDCLIM was used to assess the uncertainty in future landscape properties of the Visp valley in Switzerland that is due to (i) the use of different 'baseline' climate data (gridded data vs. data from weather stations), and (ii) differences in climate projections among 10 GCM-RCM chains. This latter point was also considered for the projections of future forest properties by FORCLIM at several sites along an environmental gradient in Switzerland (14 GCM-RCM chains), for which we also quantified the uncertainty caused by (iii) the model chain specific statistical properties of the climate time-series, and (iv) the stochasticity of the demographic processes included in the model, e.g., the annual number of saplings that establish, or tree mortality. Using methods of variance decomposition analysis, we found that (i) The use of different baseline climate data strongly impacts the prediction of forest properties at the lowest and highest, but

Tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and extreme sea-level projections along the east coast of India in a future climate scenario

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Unnikrishnan, A.S.; RameshKumar, M.R.; Sindhu, B.

(2071– 2100), A2. The analysis showed an increase in the frequency of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal during the late monsoon (August and September) in the A2 scenario compared to the baseline scenario. Extreme sea-level projections along the east coast...

Carbon intensity of electricity generation and CDM baseline: case studies of three Chinese provinces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Chi; Heller, T.C.; May, M.M.

2005-01-01

A difficult and persistent issue in the discussion of Clean Development Mechanism is estimating a carbon emissions baseline, against which tradable permits may be certified. This paper examines the proposition of adopting sectoral, as opposed to project level, baselines by conducting case studies of the electricity industry in three Chinese provinces. We find that complicated central planning, financial and institutional factors have been behind the declining trend of carbon intensity in electricity generation and its provincial variations. Government planned electricity development which incorporates many of these factors and the associated industry carbon intensity may serve as a second best baseline. However, the limitation of the baseline we examine in this study plus difficulties numerous studies have revealed in baseline setting suggests that using baselines based on counterfactuals of what would happen will in the end either miss good emission reduction opportunities, or compromise the integrity of the regime

Episodic memory and episodic future thinking impairments in high-functioning autism spectrum disorder: an underlying difficulty with scene construction or self-projection?

Science.gov (United States)

Lind, Sophie E; Williams, David M; Bowler, Dermot M; Peel, Anna

2014-01-01

There appears to be a common network of brain regions that underlie the ability to recall past personal experiences (episodic memory) and the ability to imagine possible future personal experiences (episodic future thinking). At the cognitive level, these abilities are thought to rely on "scene construction" (the ability to bind together multimodal elements of a scene in mind--dependent on hippocampal functioning) and temporal "self-projection" (the ability to mentally project oneself through time--dependent on prefrontal cortex functioning). Although autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is characterized by diminished episodic memory, it is unclear whether episodic future thinking is correspondingly impaired. Moreover, the underlying basis of such impairments (difficulties with scene construction, self-projection, or both) is yet to be established. The current study therefore aimed to elucidate these issues. Twenty-seven intellectually high-functioning adults with ASD and 29 age- and IQ-matched neurotypical comparison adults were asked to describe (a) imagined atemporal, non-self-relevant fictitious scenes (assessing scene construction), (b) imagined plausible self-relevant future episodes (assessing episodic future thinking), and (c) recalled personally experienced past episodes (assessing episodic memory). Tests of narrative ability and theory of mind were also completed. Performances of participants with ASD were significantly and equally diminished in each condition and, crucially, this diminution was independent of general narrative ability. Given that participants with ASD were impaired in the fictitious scene condition, which does not involve self-projection, we suggest the underlying difficulty with episodic memory/future thinking is one of scene construction.

The Female Athlete Body (FAB) study: Rationale, design, and baseline characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Tiffany M; Pollard, Tarryn; Hildebrandt, Tom; Beyl, Robbie; Wesley, Nicole; Kilpela, Lisa Smith; Becker, Carolyn Black

2017-09-01

Eating Disorders (EDs) are serious psychiatric illnesses marked by psychiatric comorbidity, medical complications, and functional impairment. Research indicates that female athletes are often at greater risk for developing ED pathology versus non-athlete females. The Female Athlete Body (FAB) study is a three-site, randomized controlled trial (RCT) designed to assess the efficacy of a behavioral ED prevention program for female collegiate athletes when implemented by community providers. This paper describes the design, intervention, and participant baseline characteristics. Future papers will discuss outcomes. Female collegiate athletes (N=481) aged 17-21 were randomized by site, team, and sport type to either FAB or a waitlist control group. FAB consisted of three sessions (1.3h each) of a behavioral ED prevention program. Assessments were conducted at baseline (pre-intervention), post-intervention (3weeks), and six-, 12-, and 18-month follow-ups. This study achieved 96% (N=481) of target recruitment (N=500). Few group differences emerged at baseline. Total sample analyses revealed moderately low baseline instances of ED symptoms and clinical cases. Health risks associated with EDs necessitate interventions for female athletes. The FAB study is the largest existing RCT for female athletes aimed at both reduction of ED risk factors and ED prevention. The methods presented and population recruited for this study represent an ideal intervention for assessing the effects of FAB on both the aforementioned outcomes. We anticipate that findings of this study (reported in future papers) will make a significant contribution to the ED risk factor reduction and prevention literature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NA61/SHINE Data For Long Baseline Neutrino Experiments

CERN Document Server

Hälser, Alexis

2015-01-01

Accelerator based long baseline neutrino experiments require precise neutrino fl ux predictions to reach their physics goals. These experiments are commonly based on a set of two detectors. At the near detector, cross section measurements are performed and the neutrino fl ux can be observed before oscillation, while at the far detector the signal for neutrino oscillations is studied. An accurate knowledge on hadron production is mandatory in order to predict the neutrino fluxes. The NA61/SHINE facility at the CERN SPS has proven its ability to deliver high quality measurements of hadron production for the long baseline neutrino experiments. In this paper, the latest results from N A61 /SHINE for the neutrino physics programme are reviewed and future plans are presented.

Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce: Current status, concerns and future projections

Science.gov (United States)

Morinville, Véronique; Drouin, Éric; Lévesque, Dominique; Espinosa, Victor M; Jacobson, Kevan

2007-01-01

BACKGROUND: There is concern that the Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce is inadequate to meet health care demands of the pediatric population. The Canadian Association of Gastroenterology Pediatric Committee performed a survey to determine characteristics and future plans of the Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce and trainees. METHODS: Estimates of total and pediatric populations were obtained from the 2001 Census of Population, Statistics Canada (with estimates to July 1, 2005). Data on Canadian pediatric gastroenterologists, including clinical full-time equivalents, sex, work interests, opinions on workforce adequacy, retirement plans, fellowship training programs and future employment plans of fellows, were gathered through e-mail surveys and telephone correspondence in 2005 and 2006. RESULTS: Canada had an estimated population of 32,270,507 in 2005 (6,967,853 people aged zero to 17 years). The pediatric gastroenterology workforce was estimated at 9.2 specialists per million children. Women accounted for 50% of the workforce. Physician to pediatric population ratios varied, with Alberta demonstrating the highest and Saskatchewan the lowest ratios (1:69,404 versus 1:240,950, respectively). Between 1998 and 2005, Canadian pediatric gastroenterology fellowship programs trained 65 fellows (65% international trainees). Twenty-two fellows (34%) entered the Canadian workforce. CONCLUSIONS: The survey highlights the variable and overall low numbers of pediatric gastroenterologists across Canada, an increasingly female workforce, a greater percentage of part-time physicians and a small cohort of Canadian trainees. In conjunction with high projected retirement rates, greater demands on the work-force and desires to partake in nonclinical activities, there is concern for an increasing shortage of pediatric gastroenterologists in Canada in future years. PMID:17948136

Organic Contamination Baseline Study in NASA Johnson Space Center Astromaterials Curation Laboratories

Science.gov (United States)

Calaway, Michael J.; Allen, Carlton C.; Allton, Judith H.

2014-01-01

Future robotic and human spaceflight missions to the Moon, Mars, asteroids, and comets will require curating astromaterial samples with minimal inorganic and organic contamination to preserve the scientific integrity of each sample. 21st century sample return missions will focus on strict protocols for reducing organic contamination that have not been seen since the Apollo manned lunar landing program. To properly curate these materials, the Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office under the Astromaterial Research and Exploration Science Directorate at NASA Johnson Space Center houses and protects all extraterrestrial materials brought back to Earth that are controlled by the United States government. During fiscal year 2012, we conducted a year-long project to compile historical documentation and laboratory tests involving organic investigations at these facilities. In addition, we developed a plan to determine the current state of organic cleanliness in curation laboratories housing astromaterials. This was accomplished by focusing on current procedures and protocols for cleaning, sample handling, and storage. While the intention of this report is to give a comprehensive overview of the current state of organic cleanliness in JSC curation laboratories, it also provides a baseline for determining whether our cleaning procedures and sample handling protocols need to be adapted and/or augmented to meet the new requirements for future human spaceflight and robotic sample return missions.

Mass hierarchy sensitivity of medium baseline reactor neutrino experiments with multiple detectors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong-Xin Wang

2017-05-01

Full Text Available We report the neutrino mass hierarchy (MH determination of medium baseline reactor neutrino experiments with multiple detectors, where the sensitivity of measuring the MH can be significantly improved by adding a near detector. Then the impact of the baseline and target mass of the near detector on the combined MH sensitivity has been studied thoroughly. The optimal selections of the baseline and target mass of the near detector are ∼12.5 km and ∼4 kton respectively for a far detector with the target mass of 20 kton and the baseline of 52.5 km. As typical examples of future medium baseline reactor neutrino experiments, the optimal location and target mass of the near detector are selected for the specific configurations of JUNO and RENO-50. Finally, we discuss distinct effects of the reactor antineutrino energy spectrum uncertainty for setups of a single detector and double detectors, which indicate that the spectrum uncertainty can be well constrained in the presence of the near detector.

The importance of hot drought in providing more useful, and higher confidence, projections of future climatic, hydrologic, and ecosystem impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B. H.

2017-12-01

Often cited as a general guide to future climatic change, "the wet get wetter, and the dry get drier" is a misleading way to look towards the future for many regions of the globe, just as the simple use of multi-model ensemble projections of temperature and precipitation change averaged over many years can also be quite misleading for real-world planning and decision-making. Factors that support these assertions are multi-fold. First, we know with high confidence that warming will continue as long as greenhouse gas emissions continue. Second, continued warming will act to make droughts more frequent, longer and more severe in many regions. Even in the absence of precipitation declines, increases in evaporation and evapotranspiration, among other things, will drive regional drying. It is misleading to suggest to decision-makers that although the future may see an increase in drought risk, a projected increase in mean precipitation will counter-balance the increased drought risk. This counter-balancing will be absent during periods of precipitation-dominated drought. Moreover, projections of precipitation change are usually associated with much less confidence than projections of warming. For example, in places like the headwaters of the Colorado and Rio Grande Rivers, or East Africa, many models suggest we should be seeing an increase in precipitation, when in fact we are only seeing significant warming. Moreover, paleoclimatic evidence suggests that state-of-the-art Earth System Models may underestimate the risk of future multi-decadal droughts, even though these droughts have occurred in many regions during the last 2000 years. This reality suggests that even in regions that do see modest increases in mean precipitation, there will likely be periods in the future characterized by decades of below 20th century mean precipitation coupled with unprecedented warmth. Hot drought may be a much more widespread and serious threat than widely recognized.

ORGANIZATION OF FUTURE ENGINEERS' PROJECT-BASED LEARNING WHEN STUDYING THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT METHODOLOGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Halyna V. Lutsenko

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The peculiarities of modern world experience of implementation of project-based learning in engineering education have been considered. The potential role and place of projects in learning activity have been analyzed. The methodology of organization of project-based activity of engineering students when studying the project management methodology and computer systems of project management has been proposed. The requirements to documentation and actual results of students' projects have been described in detail. The requirements to computer-aided systems of project management developed by using Microsoft Project in the scope of diary scheduling and resources planning have been formulated.

Examining the Perceived Value of Integration of Earned Value Management with Risk Management-Based Performance Measurement Baseline

Science.gov (United States)

Shah, Akhtar H.

2014-01-01

Many projects fail despite the use of evidence-based project management practices such as Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB), Earned Value Management (EVM) and Risk Management (RM). Although previous researchers have found that integrated project management techniques could be more valuable than the same techniques used by themselves, these…

Improving Baseline Model Assumptions: Evaluating the Impacts of Typical Methodological Approaches in Watershed Models

Science.gov (United States)

Muenich, R. L.; Kalcic, M. M.; Teshager, A. D.; Long, C. M.; Wang, Y. C.; Scavia, D.

2017-12-01

Thanks to the availability of open-source software, online tutorials, and advanced software capabilities, watershed modeling has expanded its user-base and applications significantly in the past thirty years. Even complicated models like the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are being used and documented in hundreds of peer-reviewed publications each year, and likely more applied in practice. These models can help improve our understanding of present, past, and future conditions, or analyze important "what-if" management scenarios. However, baseline data and methods are often adopted and applied without rigorous testing. In multiple collaborative projects, we have evaluated the influence of some of these common approaches on model results. Specifically, we examined impacts of baseline data and assumptions involved in manure application, combined sewer overflows, and climate data incorporation across multiple watersheds in the Western Lake Erie Basin. In these efforts, we seek to understand the impact of using typical modeling data and assumptions, versus using improved data and enhanced assumptions on model outcomes and thus ultimately, study conclusions. We provide guidance for modelers as they adopt and apply data and models for their specific study region. While it is difficult to quantitatively assess the full uncertainty surrounding model input data and assumptions, recognizing the impacts of model input choices is important when considering actions at the both the field and watershed scales.

Synthesis and Comparison of Baseline Avian and Bat Use, Raptor Nesting and Mortality Information from Proposed and Existing Wind Developments: Final Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Erickson, Wallace P.

2002-12-01

Primarily due to concerns generated from observed raptor mortality at the Altamont Pass (CA) wind plant, one of the first commercial electricity generating wind plants in the U.S., new proposed wind projects both within and outside of California have received a great deal of scrutiny and environmental review. A large amount of baseline and operational monitoring data have been collected at proposed and existing U.S. wind plants. The primary use of the avian baseline data collected at wind developments has been to estimate the overall project impacts (e.g., very low, low, moderate, and high relative mortality) on birds, especially raptors and sensitive species (e.g., state and federally listed species). In a few cases, these data have also been used for guiding placement of turbines within a project boundary. This new information has strengthened our ability to accurately predict and mitigate impacts from new projects. This report should assist various stakeholders in the interpretation and use of this large information source in evaluating new projects. This report also suggests that the level of baseline data (e.g., avian use data) required to adequately assess expected impacts of some projects may be reduced. This report provides an evaluation of the ability to predict direct impacts on avian resources (primarily raptors and waterfowl/waterbirds) using less than an entire year of baseline avian use data (one season, two seasons, etc.). This evaluation is important because pre-construction wildlife surveys can be one of the most time-consuming aspects of permitting wind power projects. For baseline data, this study focuses primarily on standardized avian use data usually collected using point count survey methodology and raptor nest survey data. In addition to avian use and raptor nest survey data, other baseline data is usually collected at a proposed project to further quantify potential impacts. These surveys often include vegetation mapping and state or

Progress report: baseline monitoring of indicator species (butterflies) at tallgrass prairie restorations

Science.gov (United States)

Allain, Larry; Vidrine, Malcolm

2014-01-01

This project provides baseline data of butterfly populations at two coastal prairie restoration sites in Louisiana, the Duralde Unit of Lacassine National Wildlife Refuge (hereafter, the Duralde site) and the Cajun Prairie Restoration Project in Eunice (hereafter, the Eunice site). In all, four distinct habitat types representing different planting methods were sampled. These data will be used to assess biodiversity and health of native grasslands and also provide a basis for adaptive management.

Imagining the personal past: Episodic counterfactuals compared to episodic memories and episodic future projections

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Özbek, Müge; Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

2017-01-01

Episodic counterfactuals are imagined events that could have happened, but did not happen, in a person’s past. Such imagined past events are important aspects of mental life, affecting emotions, decisions, and behaviors. However, studies examining their phenomenological characteristics and content...... are few. Here we introduced a new method to systematically compare self-generated episodic counterfactuals to self-generated episodic memories and future projections with regard to their phenomenological characteristics (e.g., imagery, emotional valence, rehearsal) and content (e.g., reference to cultural...... distance. The findings show that imagined events are phenomenologically different from memories of experienced events, consistent with reality monitoring theory, and that imagined future events are different from both actual and imagined past events, consistent with some theories of motivation....

Investigation of Insulation Materials for Future Radioisotope Power Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Cornell, Peggy A.; Hurwitz, Frances I.; Ellis, David L.; Schmitz, Paul C.

2013-01-01

NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Technology Advancement Project is developing next generation high-temperature insulation materials that directly benefit thermal management and improve performance of RPS for future science missions. Preliminary studies on the use of multilayer insulation (MLI) for Stirling convertors used on the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) have shown the potential benefits of MLI for space vacuum applications in reducing generator size and increasing specific power (W/kg) as compared to the baseline Microtherm HT (Microtherm, Inc.) insulation. Further studies are currently being conducted at NASA Glenn Research Center on candidate MLI foils and aerogel composite spacers. This paper presents the method of testing of foils and spacers and experimental results to date.

Baselining PMU Data to Find Patterns and Anomalies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amidan, Brett G.; Follum, James D.; Freeman, Kimberly A.; Dagle, Jeffery E.

2016-10-25

This paper looks at the application of situational awareness methodologies with respect to power grid data. These methodologies establish baselines that look for typical patterns and atypical behavior in the data. The objectives of the baselining analyses are to provide: real-time analytics, the capability to look at historical trends and events, and reliable predictions of the near future state of the grid. Multivariate algorithms were created to establish normal baseline behavior and then score each moment in time according to its variance from the baseline. Detailed multivariate analytical techniques are described in this paper that produced ways to identify typical patterns and atypical behavior. In this case, atypical behavior is behavior that is unenvisioned. Visualizations were also produced to help explain the behavior that was identified mathematically. Examples are shown to help describe how to read and interpret the analyses and visualizations. Preliminary work has been performed on PMU data sets from BPA (Bonneville Power Administration) and EI (Eastern Interconnect). Actual results are not fully shown here because of confidentiality issues. Comparisons between atypical events found mathematically and actual events showed that many of the actual events are also atypical events; however there are many atypical events that do not correlate to any actual events. Additional work needs to be done to help classify the atypical events into actual events, so that the importance of the events can be better understood.

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Transuranic Waste Baseline inventory report. Volume 1. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-02-01

This document provides baseline inventories of transuranic wastes for the WIPP facility. Information on waste forms, forecasting of future inventories, and waste stream originators is also provided. A diskette is provided which contains the inventory database

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Transuranic Waste Baseline inventory report. Volume 1. Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-02-01

This document provides baseline inventories of transuranic wastes for the WIPP facility. Information on waste forms, forecasting of future inventories, and waste stream originators is also provided. A diskette is provided which contains the inventory database.

SRP baseline hydrogeologic investigation: Aquifer characterization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Strom, R.N.; Kaback, D.S.

1992-03-31

An investigation of the mineralogy and chemistry of the principal hydrogeologic units and the geochemistry of the water in the principal aquifers at Savannah River Site (SRS) was undertaken as part of the Baseline Hydrogeologic Investigation. This investigation was conducted to provide background data for future site studies and reports and to provide a site-wide interpretation of the geology and geochemistry of the Coastal Plain Hydrostratigraphic province. Ground water samples were analyzed for major cations and anions, minor and trace elements, gross alpha and beta, tritium, stable isotopes of hydrogen, oxygen, and carbon, and carbon-14. Sediments from the well borings were analyzed for mineralogy and major and minor elements.

Super-NOvA a long-baseline neutrino experiment with two off-axis detectors

CERN Document Server

Requejo, O M; Pascoli, S; Requejo, Olga Mena; Palomares-Ruiz, Sergio; Pascoli, Silvia

2005-01-01

Establishing the neutrino mass hierarchy is one of the fundamental questions that will have to be addressed in the next future. Its determination could be obtained with long-baseline experiments but typically suffers from degeneracies with other neutrino parameters. We consider here the NOvA experiment configuration and propose to place a second off-axis detector, with a shorter baseline, such that, by exploiting matter effects, the type of neutrino mass hierarchy could be determined with only the neutrino run. We show that the determination of this parameter is free of degeneracies, provided the ratio L/E, where L the baseline and E is the neutrino energy, is the same for both detectors.

Integrated Baseline Review (IBR) Handbook

Science.gov (United States)

Fleming, Jon F.; Kehrer, Kristen C.

2016-01-01

The purpose of this handbook is intended to be a how-to guide to prepare for, conduct, and close-out an Integrated Baseline Review (IBR). It discusses the steps that should be considered, describes roles and responsibilities, tips for tailoring the IBR based on risk, cost, and need for management insight, and provides lessons learned from past IBRs. Appendices contain example documentation typically used in connection with an IBR. Note that these appendices are examples only, and should be tailored to meet the needs of individual projects and contracts. Following the guidance in this handbook will help customers and suppliers preparing for an IBR understand the expectations of the IBR, and ensure that the IBR meets the requirements for both in-house and contract efforts.

FutureCoast: "Listen to your futures"

Science.gov (United States)

Pfirman, S. L.; Eklund, K.; Thacher, S.; Orlove, B. S.; Diane Stovall-Soto, G.; Brunacini, J.; Hernandez, T.

2014-12-01

Two science-arts approaches are emerging as effective means to convey "futurethinking" to learners: systems gaming and experiential futures. FutureCoast exemplifies the latter: by engaging participants with voicemails supposedly leaking from the cloud of possible futures, the storymaking game frames the complexities of climate science in relatable contexts. Because participants make the voicemails themselves, FutureCoast opens up creative ways for people to think about possibly climate-changed futures and personal ways to talk about them. FutureCoast is a project of the PoLAR Partnership with a target audience of informal adult learners primarily reached via mobile devices and online platforms. Scientists increasingly use scenarios and storylines as ways to explore the implications of environmental change and societal choices. Stories help people make connections across experiences and disciplines and link large-scale events to personal consequences. By making the future seem real today, FutureCoast's framework helps people visualize and plan for future climate changes. The voicemails contributed to FutureCoast are spread through the game's intended timeframe (2020 through 2065). Based on initial content analysis of voicemail text, common themes include ecosystems and landscapes, weather, technology, societal issues, governance and policy. Other issues somewhat less frequently discussed include security, food, industry and business, health, energy, infrastructure, water, economy, and migration. Further voicemail analysis is examining: temporal dimensions (salient time frames, short vs. long term issues, intergenerational, etc.), content (adaptation vs. mitigation, challenges vs. opportunities, etc.), and emotion (hopeful, resigned, etc. and overall emotional context). FutureCoast also engaged audiences through facilitated in-person experiences, geocaching events, and social media (Tumblr, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube). Analysis of the project suggests story

Radionuclides in marine macroalgae from Amchitka and Kiska Islands in the Aleutians: establishing a baseline for future biomonitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Kosson, David S.; Powers, Charles W.; Jewett, Stephen; Friedlander, Barry; Chenelot, Heloise; Volz, Conrad D.; Jeitner, Christian

2006-01-01

Levels of radionuclides in seven species of marine brown algae and Ulva were determined to establish a baseline for the Northern Pacific Ocean/Bering Sea (Aleutian Islands). There were differences in levels among algal species and locations (Amchitka Island vs Kiska Island). No values were above the minimum detectable activity (MDA) level for 137 Cs, 129 I, 6 Co, 152 Eu, 9 Sr, and 99 Tc. There were interspecific differences in some radionuclides: Ulva lactuca (=Ulva fenestrata) had the highest levels of 241 Am, Alaria fistulosa had the highest levels of 239,24 Pu, and Fucus distichus (=Fucus gardneri) had the highest levels of 234 U, 235 U, and 238 U. However, levels of all radionuclides were generally low and near the MDA for all isotopes. Although Amchitka Island had higher levels of 239,24 Pu than Kiska, the differences were very small and not significant biologically. The data indicate that algae can be useful bioindicators of actinides because they accumulate them at very low environmental levels, allowing them to provide early warning of any potential seepage of radionuclides into the marine environment. Further, the data indicate that some species (the intertidal Fucus) are better accumulators than others, and these should be used as bioindicators in future monitoring schemes

Evaluation of future policy instruments - Sub-Project 2; Utvaerdering av framtida styrmedel - Delprojekt 2 inom projektet Perspektiv paa framtida avfallsbehandling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bisaillon, Mattias; Dahlen, Lisa; Detterfelt, Lia; Edner, Stig; Toren, Johan

2013-09-01

There are several recently introduced and future possible policy instruments that are of great interest to study in order to understand the future for the Swedish waste treatment market. In the energy sector, the use of system analysis models has proven to be effective in order to understand the effects and consequences of policy instruments. In the waste sector, however, such analyses have only been conducted sporadically. This in spite of the introduction of highly influential policy instruments such as producer responsibility, landfill tax and landfill ban, which together have contributed to landfilling of Swedish household waste practically has ceased. The goal of this project was, by using system analysis models, to study and evaluate the newly introduced and future possible policy instruments which affect Swedish waste treatment. The assessment was made in terms of how policy instruments affect: - the distribution of treatment technologies, - waste amounts, - greenhouse gas emissions and - the economics of waste treatment. The project was performed during 2011 and 2012 as a part of the research project 'Perspectives on sustainable waste treatment (PFA)'. During the project, discussions have taken place within the working group and the reference group on which instruments are most interesting and relevant to study. Furthermore, opinions have been gathered from the association Swedish Waste Managements policy instrument group and from various players in the industry at conferences, presentations and workshops.

Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models

Science.gov (United States)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Zhou, Wen

2018-05-01

Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment models. Eight (8) extreme rainfall indices (CDD, CWD, r10mm, r20mm, PRCPTOT, R95pTOT, rx5day, and sdii) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were used in the study. The performance of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations was validated by comparing with GPCP and TRMM observation data sets. Results show that the RCMs reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of extreme rainfall over the region and further added significant value to the driven GCMs over some grids. Compared to the baseline period 1976-2005, future changes (2070-2099) in summer rainfall extremes under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show statistically significant decreasing total rainfall (PRCPTOT), while consecutive dry days and extreme rainfall events (R95pTOT) are projected to increase significantly. There are obvious indications that simple rainfall intensity (sdii) will increase in the future. This does not amount to an increase in total rainfall but suggests a likelihood of greater intensity of rainfall events. Overall, our results project that West Africa may suffer more natural disasters such as droughts and floods in the future.

Commercial Building Energy Baseline Modeling Software: Performance Metrics and Method Testing with Open Source Models and Implications for Proprietary Software Testing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Price, Phillip N.; Granderson, Jessica; Sohn, Michael; Addy, Nathan; Jump, David

2013-09-01

whose savings can be calculated with least error? 4. What is the state of public domain models, that is, how well do they perform, and what are the associated implications for whole-building measurement and verification (M&V)? Additional project objectives that were addressed as part of this study include: (1) clarification of the use cases and conditions for baseline modeling performance metrics, benchmarks and evaluation criteria, (2) providing guidance for determining customer suitability for baseline modeling, (3) describing the portfolio level effects of baseline model estimation errors, (4) informing PG&E’s development of EMIS technology product specifications, and (5) providing the analytical foundation for future studies about baseline modeling and saving effects of EMIS technologies. A final objective of this project was to demonstrate the application of the methodology, performance metrics, and test protocols with participating EMIS product vendors.

Disease management projects and the Chronic Care Model in action: baseline qualitative research.

Science.gov (United States)

Walters, Bethany Hipple; Adams, Samantha A; Nieboer, Anna P; Bal, Roland

2012-05-11

Disease management programs, especially those based on the Chronic Care Model (CCM), are increasingly common in The Netherlands. While disease management programs have been well-researched quantitatively and economically, less qualitative research has been done. The overall aim of the study is to explore how disease management programs are implemented within primary care settings in The Netherlands; this paper focuses on the early development and implementation stages of five disease management programs in the primary care setting, based on interviews with project leadership teams. Eleven semi-structured interviews were conducted at the five selected sites with sixteen professionals interviewed; all project directors and managers were interviewed. The interviews focused on each project's chosen chronic illness (diabetes, eating disorders, COPD, multi-morbidity, CVRM) and project plan, barriers to development and implementation, the project leaders' action and reactions, as well as their roles and responsibilities, and disease management strategies. Analysis was inductive and interpretive, based on the content of the interviews. After analysis, the results of this research on disease management programs and the Chronic Care Model are viewed from a traveling technology framework. This analysis uncovered four themes that can be mapped to disease management and the Chronic Care Model: (1) changing the health care system, (2) patient-centered care, (3) technological systems and barriers, and (4) integrating projects into the larger system. Project leaders discussed the paths, both direct and indirect, for transforming the health care system to one that addresses chronic illness. Patient-centered care was highlighted as needed and a paradigm shift for many. Challenges with technological systems were pervasive. Project leaders managed the expenses of a traveling technology, including the social, financial, and administration involved. At the sites, project leaders served

Planning and managing future space facility projects. [management by objectives and group dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Sieber, J. E.; Wilhelm, J. A.; Tanner, T. A.; Helmreich, R. L.; Burgenbauch, S. F.

1979-01-01

To learn how ground-based personnel of a space project plan and organize their work and how such planning and organizing relate to work outcomes, longitudinal study of the management and execution of the Space Lab Mission Development Test 3 (SMD 3) was performed at NASA Ames Research Center. A view of the problems likely to arise in organizations and some methods of coping with these problems are presented as well as the conclusions and recommendations that pertain strictly to SMD 3 management. Emphasis is placed on the broader context of future space facility projects and additional problems that may be anticipated. A model of management that may be used to facilitate problem solving and communication - management by objectives (MBO) is presented. Some problems of communication and emotion management that MBO does not address directly are considered. Models for promoting mature, constructive and satisfying emotional relationships among group members are discussed.

Instrument validation project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reynolds, B.A.; Daymo, E.A.; Geeting, J.G.H.; Zhang, J.

1996-06-01

Westinghouse Hanford Company Project W-211 is responsible for providing the system capabilities to remove radioactive waste from ten double-shell tanks used to store radioactive wastes on the Hanford Site in Richland, Washington. The project is also responsible for measuring tank waste slurry properties prior to injection into pipeline systems, including the Replacement of Cross-Site Transfer System. This report summarizes studies of the appropriateness of the instrumentation specified for use in Project W-211. The instruments were evaluated in a test loop with simulated slurries that covered the range of properties specified in the functional design criteria. The results of the study indicate that the compact nature of the baseline Project W-211 loop does not result in reduced instrumental accuracy resulting from poor flow profile development. Of the baseline instrumentation, the Micromotion densimeter, the Moore Industries thermocouple, the Fischer and Porter magnetic flow meter, and the Red Valve Pressure transducer meet the desired instrumental accuracy. An alternate magnetic flow meter (Yokagawa) gave nearly identical results as the baseline fischer and Porter. The Micromotion flow meter did not meet the desired instrument accuracy but could potentially be calibrated so that it would meet the criteria. The Nametre on-line viscometer did not meet the desired instrumental accuracy and is not recommended as a quantitative instrument although it does provide qualitative information. The recommended minimum set of instrumentation necessary to ensure the slurry meets the Project W-058 acceptance criteria is the Micromotion mass flow meter and delta pressure cells

Future Projections and Consequences of the Changing North American Carbon Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Cooley, S. R.; Moore, D. J.

2017-12-01

The rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily due to human-caused fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere. Nevertheless, today's atmospheric CO2 levels are higher than at any time in the past 800,000 years. Over the past decade, there has been considerable effort to understand how carbon cycle changes interact with, and influence, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and thus climate. Here, we summarize the key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and the consequences of these changes as reported in Chapters 17 and 19 of the 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, plant growth, and water-use efficiency. Together, these may lead to changes in vegetation composition, carbon storage, hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. In the ocean, increased uptake of atmospheric CO2 causes ocean acidification, which leads to changes in reproduction, survival, and growth of many marine species. These direct physiological responses to acidification are likely to have indirect ecosystem-scale consequences that we are just beginning to understand. In all environments, the effects of rising CO2 also interact with other global changes. For example, nutrient availability can set limits on growth and a warming climate alters carbon uptake depending on a number of other factors. As a result, there is low confidence in the future evolution of the North American carbon cycle. For example, models project that terrestrial ecosystems could continue to be a net sink (of up to 1.19 PgC yr-1) or switch to a net source of carbon to the atmosphere (of up to 0.60 PgC yr-1) by the end of the century under business-as-usual emission scenarios. And, while North American coastal areas have historically been a sink of carbon (e.g., 2.6 to 3.5 PgC since 1995) and are projected to continue to take up

The Cernavoda project - past and future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glodeanu, F.; Campureanu, T.; Chirica, T.; Popescu, D.

1995-01-01

The history of the Cernavoda nuclear power station in Romania is traced. It was conceived in 1977 as five unit CANDU-6 station and agreements were concluded on engineering, procurement and financial assistance with Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd (AECL) and Ansaldo of Italy. Delays in construction were created from the first, however, by efforts to manufacture as many components as possible in Romania, unfamiliarity with nuclear project management and the disadvantages of a highly centralised economy. Political changes since December 1989 have led to a new approach to project implementation. The Romanian Electricity Authority (RENEL), signed a new contract with AECL and Ansaldo in August 1991 to perform the project management for the completion of Cernavoda 1. The project has progressed very well and by the beginning of 1995 more than 90% of the plant systems were ready for commissioning and a full operating shift was in place. As a second phase of the nuclear power programme RENEL plans to complete Cernavoda 2, the construction of which was suspended at 30% completion. The three other units will be preserved in their present preliminary stage of construction up to 2000 while finance is sought for their completion. Nuclear power is seen as an environmentally clean means of meeting Romania's growing energy demand as the economy develops. (UK)

2015 American College of Rheumatology Workforce Study: Supply and Demand Projections of Adult Rheumatology Workforce, 2015-2030.

Science.gov (United States)

Battafarano, Daniel F; Ditmyer, Marcia; Bolster, Marcy B; Fitzgerald, John D; Deal, Chad; Bass, Ann R; Molina, Rodolfo; Erickson, Alan R; Hausmann, Jonathan S; Klein-Gitelman, Marisa; Imundo, Lisa F; Smith, Benjamin J; Jones, Karla; Greene, Kamilah; Monrad, Seetha U

2018-04-01

To describe the character and composition of the 2015 US adult rheumatology workforce, evaluate workforce trends, and project supply and demand for clinical rheumatology care for 2015-2030. The 2015 Workforce Study of Rheumatology Specialists in the US used primary and secondary data sources to estimate the baseline adult rheumatology workforce and determine demographic and geographic factors relevant to workforce modeling. Supply and demand was projected through 2030, utilizing data-driven estimations regarding the proportion and clinical full-time equivalent (FTE) of academic versus nonacademic practitioners. The 2015 adult workforce (physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants) was estimated to be 6,013 providers (5,415 clinical FTE). At baseline, the estimated demand exceeded the supply of clinical FTE by 700 (12.9%). By 2030, the supply of rheumatology clinical providers is projected to fall to 4,882 providers, or 4,051 clinical FTE (a 25.2% decrease in supply from 2015 baseline levels). Demand in 2030 is projected to exceed supply by 4,133 clinical FTE (102%). The adult rheumatology workforce projections reflect a major demographic and geographic shift that will significantly impact the supply of the future workforce by 2030. These shifts include baby-boomer retirements, a millennial predominance, and an increase of female and part-time providers, in parallel with an increased demand for adult rheumatology care due to the growing and aging US population. Regional and innovative strategies will be necessary to manage access to care and reduce barriers to care for rheumatology patients. © 2018, American College of Rheumatology.

Analyses of historical and projected climates to support climate adaptation in the northern Rocky Mountains: Chapter 4

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, John E.; Tercek, Michael; Guay, Kevin; Chang, Tony; Talbert, Marian; Rodman, Ann; Thoma, David; Jantz, Patrick; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

Most of the western United States is experiencing the effects of rapid and directional climate change (Garfin et al. 2013). These effects, along with forecasts of profound changes in the future, provide strong motivation for resource managers to learn about and prepare for future changes. Climate adaptation plans are based on an understanding of historic climate variation and their effects on ecosystems and on forecasts of future climate trends. Frameworks for climate adaptation thus universally identify the importance of a summary of historical, current, and projected climates (Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011; Cross et al. 2013; Stein et al. 2014). Trends in physical climate variables are usually the basis for evaluating the exposure component in vulnerability assessments. Thus, this chapter focuses on step 2 of the Climate-Smart Conservation framework (chap. 2): vulnerability assessment. We present analyses of historical and current observations of temperature, precipitation, and other key climate measurements to provide context and a baseline for interpreting the ecological impacts of projected climate changes.

The implications of regional and national demographic projections for future GMS costs in Ireland through to 2026.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Conway, Aisling

2014-10-21

As the health services in Ireland have become more resource-constrained, pressure has increased to reduce public spending on community drug schemes such as General Medical Services (GMS) drug prescribing and to understand current and future trends in prescribing. The GMS scheme covers approximately 37% of the Irish population in 2011 and entitles them, inter alia, to free prescription drugs and appliances. This paper projects the effects of future changes in population, coverage, claims rates and average claims cost on GMS costs in Ireland.

Spent nuclear fuel project multi-year work plan WBS number 1.4.1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wells, J.L.

1997-01-01

The Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Project Multi-Year Work Plan (MYWP) is a controlled living document that contains the current SNF Project Technical, Schedule and Cost Baselines. These baselines reflect the current Project execution strategies and are controlled via the change control process. Other changes to the MYWP document will be controlled using the document control process. These changes will be processed as they are approved to keep the MYWP a living document. The MYWP will be maintained continuously as the project baseline through the life of the project and not revised annually. The MYWP is the one document which summarizes and links these three baselines in one place. Supporting documentation for each baseline referred to herein may be impacted by changes to the MYWP, and must also be revised through change control to maintain consistency

The future of the oceans past: towards a global marine historical research initiative.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwerdtner Máñez, Kathleen; Holm, Poul; Blight, Louise; Coll, Marta; MacDiarmid, Alison; Ojaveer, Henn; Poulsen, Bo; Tull, Malcolm

2014-01-01

Historical research is playing an increasingly important role in marine sciences. Historical data are also used in policy making and marine resource management, and have helped to address the issue of shifting baselines for numerous species and ecosystems. Although many important research questions still remain unanswered, tremendous developments in conceptual and methodological approaches are expected to contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the global history of human interactions with life in the seas. Based on our experiences and knowledge from the "History of Marine Animal Populations" project, this paper identifies the emerging research topics for future historical marine research. It elaborates on concepts and tools which are expected to play a major role in answering these questions, and identifies geographical regions which deserve future attention from marine environmental historians and historical ecologists.

Ambient PM2.5 Exposure in India: Burden, Source-Apportionment and Projection Under Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Dey, S.; Chowdhury, S.; Upadhyay, A. K.; Smith, K. R.

2017-12-01

Air pollution has been identified as one of the leading factors of premature death in India. Absence of adequate in-situ monitors led us to use satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) data to infer surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Annual premature mortality burden due to ambient PM2.5 exposure is estimated to be 1.17 (0.42-2.7) million for India. A chemical transport model WRF-Chem is utilized to estimate source-apportioned PM2.5 exposure. We estimate the exposure for four major sources - transport, residential, energy and industrial and found that the largest contribution to ambient PM2.5 exposure in India is contributed by residential sources. We estimate that if all the solid fuel use at households is replaced by clean fuel, ambient PM2.5 exposure would reduce by 30-45%, leading to 170,000 (14.5% of total burden) averted premature deaths annually. To understand how the air quality is projected to change under climate change scenarios, we analyze 13 CMIP5 models. We calculate the relative changes in PM2.5 (ensemble mean) in future relative to the baseline period (2001-2005) and apply the factor to satellite-derived PM2.5 exposure in baseline period to project future PM2.5 exposure. Ambient PM2.5 is expected to reach a maxima in 2030 under RCP4.5 (15.5% rise from baseline period) and in 2040 (25.5% rise) under RCP8.5 scenario. The projected exposure under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are further used to estimate premature mortality burden till the end of the century by considering population distribution projections from five shared socio-economic pathways (SSP) scenarios. We separate the burden due to ambient PM2.5 exposure in future attributable to change in meteorology due to climate change and change in demographic and epidemiological transitions. If all-India average PM2.5 exposure meets WHO interim target 1 (35 µg/m3) by 2031-40, 28000-38000 and 41100-60100 premature deaths can be averted every year under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. Even

Le futur du project LHC

CERN Multimedia

Heyoka

2007-01-01

Since 2004, and specitally during the long study in 2005, we used the results of the LHC Project to evaluate differents parameters of the machiene (LHC). The final choices for the design of the machine are based partly on these results. (1,5 page)

ACSEPT a European project for a new step in the future demonstration of advanced fuel processing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bourg, S.; Hill, C.; Caravaca, C.; Espartero, A.; Rhodes, C.; Taylor, R.; Harrison, M.; EKBERG, C.; GEIST, A.; Modolo, G.; Cassayre, L.; Malmbeck, R.; De Angelis, G.; Bouvet, S.; Klaassen, F.

2010-01-01

For more than fifteen years, a European scientific community has joined its effort to develop and optimise processes for the partitioning of actinides from fission products. In an international context of 'nuclear renaissance', the upcoming of a new generation of nuclear reactor (Gen IV) will require the development of associated advanced closed fuel cycles which answer the needs of a sustainable nuclear energy: the minimization of the production of long lived radioactive waste but also the optimization of the use of natural resources with an increased resistance to proliferation. Actually, Partitioning and Transmutation (P and T), associated to a multi-recycling of all transuranics (TRUs), should play a key role in the development of this sustainable nuclear energy. By joining together 34 Partners coming from European universities, nuclear research bodies and major industrial players in a multidisciplinary consortium, the FP7 EURATOM-Fission Collaborative Project ACSEPT (Actinide recycling by Separation and Transmutation), started in 2008 for four year duration, provides the sound basis and fundamental improvements for future demonstrations of fuel treatment in strong connection with fuel fabrication techniques. Consistently with potentially viable recycling strategies, ACSEPT therefore provides a structured R and D framework to develop chemical separation processes compatible with fuel fabrication techniques, with a view to their future demonstration at the pilot level. ACSEPT is organized into three technical domains: (i) Considering technically mature aqueous separation processes, ACSEPT works to optimize and select the most promising ones dedicated either to actinide partitioning or to group actinide separation. (ii) Concerning high temperature pyrochemical separation processes, ACSEPT focuses on the enhancement of the two reference cores of process selected within previous projects. R and D efforts are now devoted to key scientific and technical points

Predicting Coronary Artery Aneurysms in Kawasaki Disease at a North American Center: An Assessment of Baseline z Scores.

Science.gov (United States)

Son, Mary Beth F; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Kim, Susan; Tang, Alexander; Dedeoglu, Fatma; Fulton, David R; Lo, Mindy S; Baker, Annette L; Sundel, Robert P; Newburger, Jane W

2017-05-31

Accurate risk prediction of coronary artery aneurysms (CAAs) in North American children with Kawasaki disease remains a clinical challenge. We sought to determine the predictive utility of baseline coronary dimensions adjusted for body surface area ( z scores) for future CAAs in Kawasaki disease and explored the extent to which addition of established Japanese risk scores to baseline coronary artery z scores improved discrimination for CAA development. We explored the relationships of CAA with baseline z scores; with Kobayashi, Sano, Egami, and Harada risk scores; and with the combination of baseline z scores and risk scores. We defined CAA as a maximum z score (zMax) ≥2.5 of the left anterior descending or right coronary artery at 4 to 8 weeks of illness. Of 261 patients, 77 patients (29%) had a baseline zMax ≥2.0. CAAs occurred in 15 patients (6%). CAAs were strongly associated with baseline zMax ≥2.0 versus Baseline zMax ≥2.0 had a C statistic of 0.77, good sensitivity (80%), and excellent negative predictive value (98%). None of the risk scores alone had adequate discrimination. When high-risk status per the Japanese risk scores was added to models containing baseline zMax ≥2.0, none were significantly better than baseline zMax ≥2.0 alone. In a North American center, baseline zMax ≥2.0 in children with Kawasaki disease demonstrated high predictive utility for later development of CAA. Future studies should validate the utility of our findings. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Revised CDM baseline study on fuel use and manure management at household level

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buysman, E.; Bryan, S.; Pino, M.

2010-05-15

This report presents the revised study of the original CDM baseline study conducted in 2006. The original study was conducted under the authority of the National Biogas Program (NBP), to study the potential GHG mitigation resulting from the adoption of domestic biodigesters. In the beginning of June 2006, a survey amongst 300 randomly selected households with the technical potential for a biodigester was conducted in the NBP's 6-targeted provinces (Kampong Cham, Svay Rieng, Prey Veng, Kampong Speu, Takeo and Kandal) in southeast Cambodia. The revised baseline study includes two additional provinces, Kampot and Kampong Chhnang. The survey showed that a significant proportion of the households have no access to basic sanitation and often have health problems. They consume mainly wood as cooking fuel and the majority use inefficient cooking stoves. The main lighting fuel is kerosene. The GHG emissions were calculated for each type of Animal Waste Management System (AWMS) and the baseline fuel consumption. The main methodology used is the GS-VER biodigester methodology and the IPCC 2006 guidelines to ex-ante estimate baseline, project and the emission reductions. The GHG emission from wood burning is only considered when it originates from a non-renewable source. The NRB analysis determined a NRB share of 70.7% for both collected and purchased wood. Total GHG emission is calculated by combining AWMS and wood fuels emissions. The annual baseline and project emission was estimated to be respectively 5.38 tCO2eq and 0.46 tCO2eq per average household, the emission reductions (ER) are therefore 4.92 tCO2eq/household/year.

Disease management projects and the Chronic Care Model in action: baseline qualitative research

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Disease management programs, especially those based on the Chronic Care Model (CCM), are increasingly common in the Netherlands. While disease management programs have been well-researched quantitatively and economically, less qualitative research has been done. The overall aim of the study is to explore how disease management programs are implemented within primary care settings in the Netherlands; this paper focuses on the early development and implementation stages of five disease management programs in the primary care setting, based on interviews with project leadership teams. Methods Eleven semi-structured interviews were conducted at the five selected sites with sixteen professionals interviewed; all project directors and managers were interviewed. The interviews focused on each project’s chosen chronic illness (diabetes, eating disorders, COPD, multi-morbidity, CVRM) and project plan, barriers to development and implementation, the project leaders’ action and reactions, as well as their roles and responsibilities, and disease management strategies. Analysis was inductive and interpretive, based on the content of the interviews. After analysis, the results of this research on disease management programs and the Chronic Care Model are viewed from a traveling technology framework. Results This analysis uncovered four themes that can be mapped to disease management and the Chronic Care Model: (1) changing the health care system, (2) patient-centered care, (3) technological systems and barriers, and (4) integrating projects into the larger system. Project leaders discussed the paths, both direct and indirect, for transforming the health care system to one that addresses chronic illness. Patient-centered care was highlighted as needed and a paradigm shift for many. Challenges with technological systems were pervasive. Project leaders managed the expenses of a traveling technology, including the social, financial, and administration involved

Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Casas-Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.

2013-07-01

Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrap-based method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of Hs up to ±10% were obtained, whereas they were around ±20% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of Hs are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the Hs magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

Anticipating the use of future things: towards a framework for prospective use analysis in innovation design projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Julien; Buisine, Stéphanie; Aoussat, Améziane

2013-11-01

Anticipation of future product use is a persistent issue in User-Centered Design. In this paper, we argue that one obstacle to early integration of use analysis in innovation design is overreliance on retrospective use analysis, i.e. that which is based on clear references to existing products or activities. In contrast, innovation design projects are full of uncertainty, leading to a need for prospective analysis. After having described some limitations of prospective use analysis, we contend that creativity tools may be used to assist the anticipation of future product use, by allowing designers to approach the variability of situations of future use in a structured manner rather than by "muddling through". We illustrate the expected benefits of this approach with two case studies, and describe some prospects for future research and practice in ergonomics. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

BASELINE DEVELOPMENT USING THE CRITICAL DECISION AND DOE ORDER 413.3 FRAMEWORKS: A CASE STUDY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darnell, M.L.; Duffy, M.A.; Gantos, N.J.; Zadeh, B.

2003-01-01

From 1943 through 1986, Battelle Memorial Institute performed nuclear research and development on behalf of various Federal government agencies, primarily for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and its predecessor agencies. This work was performed in Battelle's privately owned facilities in Columbus, Ohio, and a research park located at an 11-acre facility 16 miles west of Columbus, in a rural area near the village of West Jefferson, Ohio. Under the Battelle Columbus Laboratories Decommissioning Project (BCLDP), Battelle is now engaged in cleaning up the West Jefferson site on a cost-sharing basis with the DOE. The BCLDP mission is to decontaminate Battelle facilities in a safe, environmentally sound, and cost-effective manner, returning the facilities to a condition suitable for use without radiological restriction. The Columbus Environmental Management Project (CEMP), reporting to the DOE Ohio Field Office, is the DOE organization that is responsible for overseeing the BCLDP. CEMP requested preparation of a technical baseline, suitable for independent validation, establishing the scope, cost, and schedule for completing the project. Concurrent with this request, the DOE Office of Environmental Management issued DOE Order 413.3, Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets, for review and, shortly thereafter, published the first drafts of companion documents titled Program and Project Management Manual and Project Management Practices. These two documents suggest or require the use of a variety of techniques and tools for planning and executing DOE cleanup programs. Accordingly, Battelle successfully developed a project baseline for obtaining approval of Critical Decision 2/3 (CD-2/3) in compliance with the requirements of DOE Order 413.3 and the technical approaches described in the companion documents. This paper addresses three fundamental questions:(1) What were the planned baseline development methodology and its implementation

Effect of computer game playing on baseline laparoscopic simulator skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Halvorsen, Fredrik H; Cvancarova, Milada; Fosse, Erik; Mjåland, Odd

2013-08-01

Studies examining the possible association between computer game playing and laparoscopic performance in general have yielded conflicting results and neither has a relationship between computer game playing and baseline performance on laparoscopic simulators been established. The aim of this study was to examine the possible association between previous and present computer game playing and baseline performance on a virtual reality laparoscopic performance in a sample of potential future medical students. The participating students completed a questionnaire covering the weekly amount and type of computer game playing activity during the previous year and 3 years ago. They then performed 2 repetitions of 2 tasks ("gallbladder dissection" and "traverse tube") on a virtual reality laparoscopic simulator. Performance on the simulator were then analyzed for association to their computer game experience. Local high school, Norway. Forty-eight students from 2 high school classes volunteered to participate in the study. No association between prior and present computer game playing and baseline performance was found. The results were similar both for prior and present action game playing and prior and present computer game playing in general. Our results indicate that prior and present computer game playing may not affect baseline performance in a virtual reality simulator.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the inactive uraniferous lignite ashing site near Bowman, North Dakota

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-11-01

This baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the inactive uraniferous lignite ashing site near Bowman, North Dakota, evaluates the potential impacts to public health or the environment from contaminated ground water at this site. This contamination is a result of the uraniferous lignite ashing process, when coal containing uranium was burned to produce uranium. Potential risk is quantified only for constituents introduced by the processing activities and not for the constituents naturally occurring in background ground water in the site vicinity. Background ground water, separate from any site-related contamination, imposes a percentage of the overall risk from ground water ingestion in the Bowman site vicinity. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is developing plans to address soil and ground water contamination at the site. The UMTRA Surface Project involves the determination of the extent of soil contamination and design of an engineered disposal cell for long-term storage of contaminated materials. The UMTRA Ground Water Project evaluates ground water contamination. Based on results from future site monitoring activities as defined in the site observational work plan and results from this risk assessment, the DOE will propose an approach for managing contaminated ground water at the Bowman site.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the inactive uraniferous lignite ashing site near Bowman, North Dakota

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-11-01

This baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the inactive uraniferous lignite ashing site near Bowman, North Dakota, evaluates the potential impacts to public health or the environment from contaminated ground water at this site. This contamination is a result of the uraniferous lignite ashing process, when coal containing uranium was burned to produce uranium. Potential risk is quantified only for constituents introduced by the processing activities and not for the constituents naturally occurring in background ground water in the site vicinity. Background ground water, separate from any site-related contamination, imposes a percentage of the overall risk from ground water ingestion in the Bowman site vicinity. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is developing plans to address soil and ground water contamination at the site. The UMTRA Surface Project involves the determination of the extent of soil contamination and design of an engineered disposal cell for long-term storage of contaminated materials. The UMTRA Ground Water Project evaluates ground water contamination. Based on results from future site monitoring activities as defined in the site observational work plan and results from this risk assessment, the DOE will propose an approach for managing contaminated ground water at the Bowman site

Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

Science.gov (United States)

Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

2011-01-01

California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2. 1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Projecting Sexual and Injecting HIV Risks into Future Outcomes with Agent-Based Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.; Zule, William A.

Longitudinal studies of health outcomes for HIV could be very costly cumbersome and not representative of the risk population. Conversely, cross-sectional approaches could be representative but rely on the retrospective information to estimate prevalence and incidence. We present an Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach where we use behavioral data from a cross-sectional representative study and project the behavior into the future so that the risks of acquiring HIV could be studied in a dynamical/temporal sense. We show how the blend of behavior and contact network factors (sexual, injecting) play the role in the risk of future HIV acquisition and time till obtaining HIV. We show which subjects are the most likely persons to get HIV in the next year, and whom they are likely to infect. We examine how different behaviors are related to the increase or decrease of HIV risks and how to estimate the quantifiable risk measures such as survival HIV free.

Investigation of Insulation Materials for Future Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS)

Science.gov (United States)

Cornell, Peggy A.; Hurwitz, Frances I.; Ellis, David L.; Schmitz, Paul C.

2013-01-01

NASA's Radioisotope Power System (RPS) Technology Advancement Project is developing next generation high temperature insulation materials that directly benefit thermal management and improve performance of RPS for future science missions. Preliminary studies on the use of multilayer insulation (MLI) for Stirling convertors used on the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) have shown the potential benefits of MLI for space vacuum applications in reducing generator size and increasing specific power (W/kg) as compared to the baseline Microtherm HT (Microtherm, Inc.) insulation. Further studies are currently being conducted at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) on candidate MLI foils and aerogel composite spacers. This paper presents the method of testing of foils and spacers and experimental results to date.

Baseline design/economics for advanced Fischer-Tropsch technology. Quarterly report, January--March 1992

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1992-09-01

The objectives of the study are to: Develop a baseline design for indirect liquefaction using advanced Fischer-Tropsch (F-T) technology. Prepare the capital and operating costs for the baseline design. Develop a process flow sheet simulation (PFS) model. This report summarizes the activities completed during the period December 23, 1992 through March 15, 1992. In Task 1, Baseline Design and Alternates, the following activities related to the tradeoff studies were completed: approach and basis; oxygen purity; F-T reactor pressure; wax yield; autothermal reformer; hydrocarbons (C{sub 3}/C{sub 4}s) recovery; and hydrogenrecovery. In Task 3, Engineering Design Criteria, activities were initiated to support the process tradeoff studies in Task I and to develop the environmental strategy for the Illinois site. The work completed to date consists of the development of the F-T reactor yield correlation from the Mobil dam and a brief review of the environmental strategy prepared for the same site in the direct liquefaction baseline study.Some work has also been done in establishing site-related criteria, in establishing the maximum vessel diameter for train sizing and in coping with the low H{sub 2}/CO ratio from the Shell gasifier. In Task 7, Project Management and Administration, the following activities were completed: the subcontract agreement between Amoco and Bechtel was negotiated; a first technical progress meeting was held at the Bechtel office in February; and the final Project Management Plan was approved by PETC and issued in March 1992.

Future energy research in the EU under EIT conditions-pilot projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Puehringer-Oppermann, Franziska; Bele, Petra; Bussar, Rainer; Stimming, Ulrich [TUM, Dept. of Physics, E19, James-Franck Str. 1, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

2009-07-01

The European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) has been established in April 2008. It is an independent organisation with the administrative head in Budapest, a governing board, an executive committee and a chairman. The EIT budget until 2012 is 308 MEUR. EIT will operate through the formation of Knowledge and Innovation Communities (KICs). The first three KICs are foreseen in the areas sustainable energy, ICT and climate mitigation. The European Commission has sponsored four pilot projects (conducted 2008-2009) to help develop a suitable governance structure for cooperations on European scale such as the future KICs. They are Bridge, ComplexEIT, SUCCESS and Gast, dealing with different topics like nanomedicine (Bridge), integration of hardware and software (ComplexEIT), sustainable energy (SUCCESS) and green and safe road transportation (Gast). The strategic objective of these pilot projects is to design, implement and test new models of cooperation in the knowledge triangle. We are involved in SUCCESS and after benchmarking of 66 collaborations in the field sustainable energy, the state of the art of selected representative topics was asessed and shortcomings in governance evaluated by SWOT analysis. In parallel further existing collaborations were used to extract and establish a management structure for such collaborations on the European scale.

Danish Centre for Strategic Research in Type 2 Diabetes (DD2) project cohort of newly diagnosed patients with type 2 diabetes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Diana Hedevang; Nicolaisen, Sia Kromann; Berencsi, Klára

2018-01-01

PURPOSE: The aim of this article is to provide a detailed description of the ongoing nationwide Danish Centre for Strategic Research in Type 2 Diabetes (DD2) project cohort and biobank. The DD2 cohort continuously enrols newly diagnosed patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) throughout Denmark...... measures and presence of complications at baseline have been reported. FUTURE PLANS: During 2016, a detailed follow-up questionnaire has been answered by 85% of initial participants, providing follow-up information on baseline variables and on presence of diabetic neuropathy. The DD2 cohort has now been...

Documenter le futur: fantasmes, projections et decalages spatiotemporels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alice Forge

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Le concept de documentation future recèle un paradoxe : le mot documenter renvoie à des traces relevées dans un passé factuel, tandis que le futur ne peut, par définition, être qu’incertain, que l’objet de fantasmes, de projections. L’analyse suivante questionne ce paradoxe à travers l’analyse d’un motif cinématographique : un homme et une femme face à une tranche de séquoia, représentation symbolique du temps. Ce motif apparait dans trois oeuvres majeures du cinéma : Vertigo, d’Alfred Hitchcock, La Jetée de Chris Marker, et l’Armée des douze singes, de Terry Gilliam. La répétition de ce motif est mise en rapport avec l’ouvrage de Pierre Bayard, Le plagiat par anticipation, afin de l’envisager sous l’angle du paradoxe temporel, plutôt que sous le régime de la chronologie historique. Cette analyse prend pour point de départ une oeuvre intitulée Vozes Fantasmas, qui sur le principe de la documentation future propose d’écouter des murmures de spectateurs visitant une exposition qui n’a pas eu lieu. RESUMO O conceito de documentação do futuro evoca um paradoxo: o verbo documentar refere-se a traços ou rastros preservados de um passado factual, enquanto o futuro por definição é algo incerto, objeto de especulações, fantasias e projeções. Nossa reflexão questiona este paradoxo a partir da análise de uma cena cinematográfica: um homem e uma mulher em frente de um corte de sequoia, que é a representação simbólica do tempo. Esta cena aprece em três grandes obras do cinema: Vertigo (Um corpo que cai de Alfred Hitchcock, La Jetée de Chris Marker, e Os Doze Macacos de Terry Gilliam. A repetição desta cena é abordada em relação à obra de Pierre Bayard, Plágio por antecipação, a fim de considerá-la em termos de paradoxo temporal, e não como uma cronologia histórica. Esta análise tem como ponto de partida um trabalho artístico intitulado Vozes Fantasmas, que seguindo o princípio de

Pore Water Arsenic Dynamics in Rice Paddies Under Projected Future Climates

Science.gov (United States)

Plaganas, M.; Wang, T.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.

2016-12-01

Rice is one of the staple crops in the world, with 50% of the global population eating rice daily. Many rice-producing regions of the world are irrigated with groundwater contaminated with arsenic (As), and in particular South and Southeast Asia, where geogenic As is leached into the groundwater. Use of groundwater pervasively high in As leads to subsequent accumulation in paddy soils. Arsenic, a toxic metalloid, also decreases rice productivity and further jeopardizes food security. Hence, rice agriculture is concerned with its productivity in a climate change impacted future and the particular impacts of arsenic on yields. However, past studies do not address the prevalence of As in paddy soils or its fate in the rhizosphere and ultimate impact on the plant. The objective of our study was to determine changes in pore water As dynamics in the rhizosphere of rice plants grown on As-contaminated paddy soil under climate conditions projected for the end of the century. In order to address this objective, we designed greenhouse chambers with today's climate and projected climate conditions for the year 2100, specifically 5°C increase in temperature and doubled concentration of atmospheric CO2. We hypothesize that the effects of climate change with these conditions will increase the mobility of As in the rhizosphere, and thus, decrease rice growth in As-bearing paddies more than, so far, expected. We examined pore water geochemistry including pH and As concentrations, and correlate that to the height of the plants. Furthermore, the dynamics of other elements in the pore water such as carbon, iron, sulfur, manganese, and silica are further evaluated for their effects on rice growth. Arsenic will have an impact on rice production and conditions induced by future climatic conditions need to be considered for food security. Considering that climate change will decrease the global agricultural output, we should urgently consider adapting our agricultural practices to aid

Irradiation project of SiC/SiC fuel pin 'INSPIRE': Status and future plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohyama, Akira; Kishimoto, Hirotatsu

2015-01-01

After the March 11 Disaster in East-Japan, Research and Development towards Ensuring Nuclear Safety Enhancement for LWR becomes a top priority R and D in nuclear energy policy of Japan. The role of high temperature non-metallic materials, such as SiC/SiC, is becoming important for the advanced nuclear reactor systems. SiC fibre reinforced SiC composite has been recognised to be the most attractive option for the future, now, METI fund based project, INSPIRE, has been launched as 5-year termed project at OASIS in Muroran Institute of Technology aiming at early realisation of this system. INSPIRE is the irradiation project of SiC/SiC fuel pins aiming to accumulate material, thermal, irradiation effect data of NITE-SiC/SiC in BWR environment. Nuclear fuel inserted SiC/SiC fuel pins are planned to be installed in the Halden reactor. The project includes preparing the NITE-SiC/SiC tubes, joining of end caps, preparation of rigs to control the irradiation environment to BWR condition and the instruments to measure the condition of rigs and pins in operation. Also, basic neutron irradiation data will be accumulated by SiC/SiC coupon samples currently under irradiation in BR2. The output from this project may present the potentiality of NITE-SiC/SiC fuel cladding with the first stage fuel-cladding interaction. (authors)

CHASE-PL—Future Hydrology Data Set: Projections of Water Balance and Streamflow for the Vistula and Odra Basins, Poland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mikołaj Piniewski

2017-04-01

Full Text Available There is considerable concern that the water resources of Central and Eastern Europe region can be adversely affected by climate change. Projections of future water balance and streamflow conditions can be obtained by forcing hydrological models with the output from climate models. In this study, we employed the SWAT hydrological model driven with an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX climate simulations to generate future hydrological projections for the Vistula and Odra basins in two future horizons (2024–2050 and 2074–2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The data set consists of three parts: (1 model inputs; (2 raw model outputs; (3 aggregated model outputs. The first one allows the users to reproduce the outputs or to create the new ones. The second one contains the simulated time series of 10 variables simulated by SWAT: precipitation, snow melt, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, soil water content, percolation, surface runoff, baseflow, water yield and streamflow. The third one consists of the multi-model ensemble statistics of the relative changes in mean seasonal and annual variables developed in a GIS format. The data set should be of interest of climate impact scientists, water managers and water-sector policy makers. In any case, it should be noted that projections included in this data set are associated with high uncertainties explained in this data descriptor paper.

An alternative projection model of future nuclear capacity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takei, Mitsuo

1985-01-01

There is generally a high degree of uncertainty involved in the projection of growth of any energy source, especially when the projection extends 50 years ahead. The 1982 OECD/NEA Report, 'Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle Prospect to 2025' notes the downturn in past projections of nuclear capacity over the past decade. It is obvious that rapidly changing conditions have affected overall worldwide energy and economic growth and the field of nuclear power has been subject to changes specific to itself. These have caused past projections to become obsolete and therefore it would seem necessary to implement a new projection method to improve the accuracy of present forecasting. (author)

The CIDEM project for integrating availability, operating experience and maintenance in the design of future nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Degrave, C.; Martin-Onraet, M.

1998-01-01

To minimize the kWh cost of future nuclear plants EDF has decided to implement the CIDEM project (French acronym for Design Integrating Availability, Operating Experience and Maintenance), an analytic and systematic process for studying new projects. The first CIDEM application is centered on the future French nuclear unit construction program, known as the REP 2000 Program but the approach could be applied to other Reactor type. The CIDEM studies at the beginning, were oriented to the issues strongly impacting the availability. They have concerned: planned outages, forced outages and preventive maintenance. The studies were carried out by a team grouping engineers from the 3 EDF's Divisions (Engineering-Generation-Research), and working together in a Concurrent Engineering-Mode. This team works in close collaboration with the vendors and the German Utilities involved in the REP 2000 EPR program. The implementation of the CIDEM process constitutes for EDF a new approach to the study of the new Nuclear Power Plant projects. The studies conducted in the availability field have already highlighted a number of critical points and have made it possible to establish a series of specifications for the REP 2000/EPR project. The integration in the design process of Preventive Maintenance and Logistic Support studies will allow a better control of the maintenance cost. The competitiveness of nuclear energy greatly depends on the success of such an approach. (author)

Future Visions of the Brahmaputra - Establishing Hydrologic Baseline and Water Resources Context

Science.gov (United States)

Ray, P. A.; Yang, Y. E.; Wi, S.; Brown, C. M.

2013-12-01

The Brahmaputra River Basin (China-India-Bhutan-Bangladesh) is on the verge of a transition from a largely free flowing and highly variable river to a basin of rapid investment and infrastructure development. This work demonstrates a knowledge platform for the basin that compiles available data, and develops hydrologic and water resources system models of the basin. A Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model of the Brahmaputra basin supplies hydrologic information of major tributaries to a water resources system model, which routes runoff generated via the VIC model through water infrastructure, and accounts for water withdrawals for agriculture, hydropower generation, municipal demand, return flows and others human activities. The system model also simulates agricultural production and the economic value of water in its various uses, including municipal, agricultural, and hydropower. Furthermore, the modeling framework incorporates plausible climate change scenarios based on the latest projections of changes to contributing glaciers (upstream), as well as changes to monsoon behavior (downstream). Water resources projects proposed in the Brahmaputra basin are evaluated based on their distribution of benefits and costs in the absence of well-defined water entitlements, and relative to a complex regional water-energy-food nexus. Results of this project will provide a basis for water sharing negotiation among the four countries and inform trans-national water-energy policy making.

Spent nuclear fuel project multi-year work plan WBS {number_sign}1.4.1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wells, J.L.

1997-03-01

The Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Project Multi-Year Work Plan (MYWP) is a controlled living document that contains the current SNF Project Technical, Schedule and Cost Baselines. These baselines reflect the current Project execution strategies and are controlled via the change control process. Other changes to the MYWP document will be controlled using the document control process. These changes will be processed as they are approved to keep the MYWP a living document. The MYWP will be maintained continuously as the project baseline through the life of the project and not revised annually. The MYWP is the one document which summarizes and links these three baselines in one place. Supporting documentation for each baseline referred to herein may be impacted by changes to the MYWP, and must also be revised through change control to maintain consistency.

An assessment of baseline ecological risks at the Fernald Environmental Management Project, Fernald, Ohio

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duke, C.S.; Meyers-Schone, L.; Glum, S.R.; Quaider, W.

1991-01-01

The Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP), formerly the Feed Materials Production Center (FMPC), is a Department of Energy (DOE) facility located near Cincinnati, Ohio, which produced pure uranium metals from the early 1950s until 1989. DOE is currently conducting a Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), in order to remediate environmental impacts at the site. DOE is also preparing an environmental impact statement under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) to evaluate environmental impacts of proposed remedial actions. Both CERCLA and NEPA require evaluation of ecological risks of baseline conditions and proposed remedial actions. A preliminary assessment of ecological risks examined the potential effects of FEMP contaminants in one operable unit (OU) at the site, OU5, Environmental Media. Radionuclides of potential concern in OU5 soils include uranium, cesium, radium, strontium, technetium, and thorium. Chemicals detected in terrestrial organisms include aluminum, arsenic, barium, cadmium, lead, mercury, vanadium, and zinc, as well as radionuclides. Chemicals of potential concern in surface water include a variety of metals as well as uranium and technetium. Radionuclides in OU5 do not appear to pose a hazard to terrestrial organisms. Estimated radiation doses to aquatic organisms continually exposed to the maximum uranium concentrations observed in on-property drainages ranged from 40 to 4000 rad per year. However, off-property radionuclide concentrations are very low, and it is unlikely that organisms in streams adjacent to the FEMP are exposed to toxic levels. Maximum arsenic levels in vegetation collected from the FEMP are consistent with values reported in the literature to be toxic to certain plants. However, signs of stress have not been observed in vegetation on or adjacent to the FEMP

Multi-scale transport in the DIII-D ITER baseline scenario with direct electron heating and projection to ITER

Science.gov (United States)

Grierson, B. A.; Staebler, G. M.; Solomon, W. M.; McKee, G. R.; Holland, C.; Austin, M.; Marinoni, A.; Schmitz, L.; Pinsker, R. I.; DIII-D Team

2018-02-01

Multi-scale fluctuations measured by turbulence diagnostics spanning long and short wavelength spatial scales impact energy confinement and the scale-lengths of plasma kinetic profiles in the DIII-D ITER baseline scenario with direct electron heating. Contrasting discharge phases with ECH + neutral beam injection (NBI) and NBI only at similar rotation reveal higher energy confinement and lower fluctuations when only NBI heating is used. Modeling of the core transport with TGYRO using the TGLF turbulent transport model and NEO neoclassical transport reproduces the experimental profile changes upon application of direct electron heating and indicates that multi-scale transport mechanisms are responsible for changes in the temperature and density profiles. Intermediate and high-k fluctuations appear responsible for the enhanced electron thermal flux, and intermediate-k electron modes produce an inward particle pinch that increases the inverse density scale length. Projection to ITER is performed with TGLF and indicates a density profile that has a finite scale length due to intermediate-k electron modes at low collisionality and increases the fusion gain. For a range of E × B shear, the dominant mechanism that increases fusion performance is suppression of outward low-k particle flux and increased density peaking.

Methodologies of Project Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wojciech Macek

2011-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents comparison of three most popular project management standardsbelonging to a wider group of models (for example, PMBOK, Prince 2, CMMI, ISO 10006,BS 6079, IPMA Competence Baseline, European Commission Project Cycle ManagementGuidelines. The author discusses methods of project management according to PMBoK,Prince 2 and ISO 10006, some chosen criteria and fields of knowledge, such as generalregulations of standards, project range management, resources management, and processesconnected with risk, systems of project quality management.

Up-to-date and projected estimates of survival for people with cystic fibrosis using baseline characteristics: A longitudinal study using UK patient registry data.

Science.gov (United States)

Keogh, Ruth H; Szczesniak, Rhonda; Taylor-Robinson, David; Bilton, Diana

2018-03-01

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is the most common inherited disease in Caucasians, affecting around 10,000 individuals in the UK today. Prognosis has improved considerably over recent decades with ongoing improvements in treatment and care. Providing up-to-date survival predictions is important for patients, clinicians and health services planning. Flexible parametric survival modelling of UK CF Registry data from 2011 to 2015, capturing 602 deaths in 10,428 individuals. Survival curves were estimated from birth; conditional on reaching older ages; and projected under different assumptions concerning future mortality trends, using baseline characteristics of sex, CFTR genotype (zero, one, two copies of F508del) and age at diagnosis. Male sex was associated with better survival, as was older age at diagnosis, but only in F508del non-homozygotes. Survival did not differ by genotype among individuals diagnosed at birth. Median survival ages at birth in F508del homozygotes were 46years (males) and 41years (females), and similar in non-homozygotes diagnosed at birth. F508del heterozygotes diagnosed aged 5 had median survival ages of 57 (males) and 51 (females). Conditional on survival to 30, median survival age rises to 52 (males) and 49 (females) in homozygotes. Mortality rates decreased annually by 2% during 2006-2015. Future improvements at this rate suggest median survival ages for F508del homozygous babies of 65 (males) and 56 (females). Over half of babies born today, and of individuals aged 30 and above today, can expect to survive into at least their fifth decade. Evidence before this study We searched PubMed with terms "(cystic fibrosis survival) and (projection OR model OR registry OR United Kingdom OR UK)" to identify relevant studies on survival estimates for individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF). We also considered the most recent annual report from the UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry (Cystic Fibrosis Trust, 2016), a review by Buzzetti and colleagues (2009), the chapter

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Shiprock, New Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-04-01

This baseline risk assessment at the former uranium mill tailings site near Shiprock, New Mexico, evaluates the potential impact to public health or the environment resulting from ground water contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site were placed in an on-site disposal cell in 1986 through the US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating ground water contamination. This risk assessment is the first document specific to this site for the Ground Water Project. There are no domestic or drinking water wells in the contaminated ground water of the two distinct ground water units: the contaminated ground water in the San Juan River floodplain alluvium below the site and the contaminated ground water in the terrace alluvium area where the disposal cell is located. Because no one is drinking the affected ground water, there are currently no health or environmental risks directly associated with the contaminated ground water. However, there is a potential for humans, domestic animals, and wildlife to the exposed to surface expressions of ground water in the seeps and pools in the area of the San Juan River floodplain below the site. For these reasons, this risk assessment evaluates potential exposure to contaminated surface water and seeps as well as potential future use of contaminated ground water

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Golden, Heather E; Knightes, Christopher D; Conrads, Paul A; Feaster, Toby D; Davis, Gary M; Benedict, Stephen T; Bradley, Paul M

2013-09-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Golden, Heather E.; Knightes, Christopher D.; Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Davis, Gary M.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Bradley, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

Decomposition for emission baseline setting in China's electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steenhof, Paul A.

2007-01-01

Decomposition analysis is used to generate carbon dioxide emission baselines in China's electricity sector to the year 2020. This is undertaken from the vantage point of the final consumer of electricity, and therefore considers factors influencing electricity demand, efficiency of generation, sources of energy used for generation purposes, and the effectiveness of transmission and distribution. It is found that since 1980, gains in efficiency of generation have been the most important factor affecting change in the emission intensity of electricity generated. Based upon known energy and economic policy, efficiency gains will continue to contribute to reductions in the emission intensity of electricity generated, however, fuel shifts to natural gas and increases in nuclear generation will further these trends into the future. The analysis confirms other sources in the literature that decomposition is an appropriate technique available for baseline construction, thereby suitable for the emerging carbon market and its related mechanisms

Base-line studies for DAE establishments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Puranik, V.D.

2012-01-01

The Department of Atomic Energy has establishments located in various regions of the country and they include front-end fuel cycle facilities, nuclear power stations, back-end fuel cycle facilities and facilities for research and societal applications. These facilities handle naturally occurring radionuclides such as uranium, thorium and a variety of man-made radionuclides. These radionuclides are handled with utmost care so that they do not affect adversely the occupational workers or the members of public residing nearby. There is safety culture of the highest standard existing in all DAE establishments and it matches with the international standards. In addition, there is a perpetual environmental monitoring program carried out by the Environmental Survey Laboratories (ESLs) located at all DAE establishments. The environmental data generated by such program is studied regularly by experts to ensure compliance with the regulatory requirements. The regulatory requirements in the country are of international standards and ensure adequate protection of workers and members of public. In addition to such continued monitoring program and studies being carried out for the ongoing projects, base-line studies are carried out for all the new projects of the DAE. The purpose of the base-line studies is to establish a detailed base-line data set for a new DAE location well before the foundation stone is laid, so that the data collected when there is no departmental activity can be compared with the data generated later by the ESL. The data so generated is site specific and it varies from place to place depending upon the location of the site, e.g., inland or coastal, the presence of water bodies and pattern of irrigation, the geological characteristics of the location, the local culture and habits of the people, population density and urban or rural background. The data to be recorded as base-line data is generated over a period of at least one year covering all the seasons

The activities of the committee 'Kernreaktorregelung' (nuclear reactor control) in the past few years and future projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knecht, O.

1976-01-01

Results achieved so far and future projects are portrayed in detail: 1) VDI/VDE 3527-Graphical symbols for nuclear reactor control; 2) VDI/VDE 3528-Special terms and definitons for nuclear reactor control; 3) 8 data sheets on reactor control; 4) VDI/VDE 3530-Characterisation of reactor control rod drives. (orig./HP) [de

Description of the global petroleum supply and demand outlook updated for the 1993 edition of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand, December 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dreyfus, D.A.; Koklauner, A.B.

1992-12-01

Strategic planning of the research and development program carried out by Gas Research Institute (GRI) is supported by an annual GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand. Because petroleum products compete in a wide variety of energy uses, oil prices serve as a market clearing force for the entire energy system. A significant portion of the U.S. petroleum supply is imported, and the price of crude oil to U.S. refiners is determined by the international oil trade. Any projection of the U.S. energy situation, therefore, requires the evaluation of the global oil market and the impact of oil price changes on the supply/demand balances of market participants. The 1992 edition of the projection completed in August 1991 assumed that in the aftermath of the war in the Middle East the fundamentals of oil trade would reassert their influence. This did indeed occur and with astonishing speed. In the face of this outlook, GRI has revised its 1993 oil price track downward

The CLIO project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miyoki, S; Uchiyama, T; Yamamoto, K

2006-01-01

The CLIO project including a 100 m baseline cryogenic gravitational wave laser interferometer and a 100 m baseline geophysical strain meter was conducted in the Kamioka mine in Japan to investigate the technical feasibility of the large-scale cryogenic gravitational wave telescope (LCGT), which is planned to be constructed in the same Kamioka mine with 30 times longer baseline than CLIO, and to demonstrate the collaborative operation between these instruments about long-term continuous operation and gravitational wave signal veto analysis. About the cryogenic gravitational wave interferometer, the whole vacuum system and four cryostats, which house and cool sapphire mirrors, were constructed, and the required vacuum level of 10 -6 mbar and the temperature of 8 K at the inner radiation shield in the cryostat were achieved. About the geophysical strain meter, the obtained geophysical strain in the Kamioka mine was successfully simulated with a finite element model with a good agreement with less than 5% error. The strain meter also verified a permanent ground step change of micrometre order due to some earthquakes. We present the recent progress about the CLIO project

Baseline demographic, anthropometric, psychosocial, and behavioral characteristics of rural, Southern women in early pregnacy

Science.gov (United States)

Beginning life in a healthy uterine environment is essential for future well-being, particularly as it relates to chronic disease risk. Baseline (early pregnancy) demographic, anthropometric (height and weight), psychosocial (depression and perceived stress), and behavioral (diet and exercise) char...

The future is no longer what it used to be. Managing health telematics projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Demeester, M; Beuscart, R

1997-09-01

Future used to mean global progress and convergence of science and technology and society. Today, we observe the decoupling of the two poles of knowledge formation and application (i.e. science and technology, and culture and society, respectively) and also fierce confrontation between them. The key issue to reconcile the two poles is to re-invent the link between them. The new future lies in the development of mental and technical capacities for change and the creation of new forms of solidarity. We propose, as a general attitude, to reactivate and develop the four principles of efficacy-effectiveness-efficiency, hospitality, responsibility and pertinence. Translated into driving forces for the development of health care telematic projects, they amount to the acceptance of and capacity for enterprise-wide solutions, hospitality and capacity to acquire outside knowledge, self-managed, multi-functional team work spirit, reengineering mentality to achieve pertinent technico-cultural solutions.

Logistics Operations Management Center: Maintenance Support Baseline (LOMC-MSB)

Science.gov (United States)

Kurrus, R.; Stump, F.

1995-01-01

The Logistics Operations Management Center Maintenance Support Baseline is defined. A historical record of systems, applied to and deleted from, designs in support of future management and/or technical analysis is provided. All Flight elements, Ground Support Equipment, Facility Systems and Equipment and Test Support Equipment for which LOMC has responsibilities at Kennedy Space Center and other locations are listed. International Space Station Alpha Program documentation is supplemented. The responsibility of the Space Station Launch Site Support Office is established.

In hot water: the future of Australia's coastal and marine ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richardson, Anthony J; Poloczanska, Elvira

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: Marine ecosystems are extremely important economically and ecologically to Australia in terms of tourism, coastal defence, resources, and ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling and waste disposal. Australia is also a globally important repository of biodiversity. Here we describe the observed and potential future impacts of climate change on Australia's marine diversity. Climate simulations project oceanic warming, an increase in stratification, a strengthening of the Eastern Australian Current, increased ocean acidification, a rise in sea level, and altered storm and rainfall regimes, which taken collectively will fundamentally change marine ecosystems. There has already been widespread bleaching of tropical corals, poleward shifts of temperate fish and plankton populations, and a decline in cold-water giant kelp off Tasmania. Future changes are likely to be even more dramatic and have considerable economic and ecological consequences, especially in 'hot spots' of climate change such as theTasman Sea and the Great Barrier Reef area. Corals are likely to bleach more frequently and decline in abundance in response to both warming and ocean acidification. Planktonic animals with calcium carbonate shells, such as winged pteropod snails and coccolithophorid phytoplankton, are likely to decline as increased ocean acidification impairs their ability to maintain carbonate body structures. The projected high warming off south-east Australia is of particular concern. Marine ecosystems in this region are already stressed by high metal concentrations, sewage pollution, and overfishing, and climate models project that this region will warm more than anywhere else in the Southern Hemisphere this century because of enhanced southerly penetration of the East Australian Current. Venomous jellyfish and harmful algal blooms, which are major threats to human health, will potentially extend further south and occur more frequently. Temperate species

Temporal Compounding of Heat Waves in the Present and Projected Future

Science.gov (United States)

Baldwin, J. W.; Dessy, J.; Vecchi, G. A.; Oppenheimer, M.

2017-12-01

The hazard of heat waves is projected to increase significantly with global warming, motivating much recent research characterizing various aspects of these extreme events. One less examined aspect of heat waves is their temporal structure. Here we first modify existing heat wave duration definitions to flexibly account for a variety of possible heat wave temporal structures (sequences of hot and cooler days). We then examine past heat waves associated with high mortality using observational reanalysis data, and note that many past heat waves might be better described as series of hot days compounded together with short breaks of cooler days in between. We employ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global climate model (GCM) simulations to compare the frequency of these compound heat waves in the present and projected future with higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our results indicate that temporally compound heatwaves will constitute a greater proportion of heat wave risk with global warming. Via examining synthetic autoregressive model data, we propose that this phenomenon is expected when shifting the mean of a time series with some memory and noise. Notably, an increased proportion of compound events implies that vulnerability from prior hot days will play an increasingly large role in heat wave risk, with possible implications for both heat wave-related policy and preparedness.

The Mekong’s future flows

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoang, Long Phi

2017-01-01

This multidisciplinary study focuses on projecting and adapting to future hydrological changes in the Mekong – an international river of global significance in terms of rapidly increasing human pressures and climate-change vulnerability. A modelling framework was developed to project future

Spatial allocation of future landscape patterns for biomass and alleviation of hydrologic impacts of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Ssegane, H.; Negri, M. C.

2015-12-01

Current and future demand for food, feed, fiber, and energy require novel approaches to land management, which demands that multifunctional landscapes are created to integrate various ecosystem functions into a sustainable land use. Concurrently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase of 2 to 4°C over the next 100 years above the preindustrial baseline, beginning as early as 2016 to 2035 over all seasons in the North America. This climate change is projected to further strain water resources currently stressed by anthropogenic activities. Therefore, placement of bioenergy crops on strategically selected sub-field areas in an agricultural landscape has the potential to increase the environmental and economic sustainability if location and choice of the crops result in minimal disruption of current food production systems and therefore cause minimal indirect land use change. This study identified sub-field marginal areas in an agricultural watershed using soil-based environmental sustainability criteria and a crop productivity index. Future landscape patterns (FLPs) were developed by allocating bioenergy crops (switchgrass: Panicum virgatum or shrub willows: Salix spp.) to these marginal areas (20% of the watershed). SWAT hydrologic model and dynamically downscaled climatic projection were used to asses impact of climate change on extreme flow conditions, total annual production of commodity and bioenergy crops, and water quality under current and future landscape patterns for the mid-21st century (2045-2055) and late 21st century (2085-2095) climatic projections. The frequency of flood and drought conditions was projected to increase while the corresponding durations to decrease. Sediment yields were projected to increase by 85% to 170% while FLPs would mitigate this increase by 26% to 32%.

Project studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Geraldi, Joana; Söderlund, Jonas

2018-01-01

Project organising is a growing field of scholarly inquiry and management practice. In recent years, two important developments have influenced this field: (1) the study and practice of projects have extended their level of analysis from mainly focussing on individual projects to focussing on micro......, and of the explanations of project practices they could offer. To discuss avenues for future research on projects and project practice, this paper suggests the notion of project studies to better grasp the status of our field. We combine these two sets of ideas to analyse the status and future options for advancing...... project research: (1) levels of analysis; and (2) type of research. Analysing recent developments within project studies, we observe the emergence of what we refer to as type 3 research, which reconciles the need for theoretical development and engagement with practice. Type 3 research suggests pragmatic...

Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Stephen, Dimity Maree; Barnett, Adrian Gerard

2017-12-11

The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected. We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies. We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay. Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000 million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario. We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016-2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models' potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370.

Applied aspects of content projecting of lexicology and phraseology teaching of future primary school teachers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Марія Михайлівна Греб

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In the article it is considered the applied aspects of content projecting of lexicology and phraseology teaching of future primary school teachers basing on the principles of developing education. These principles are realized gradually (theoretical, practical, research stages and stage of independent work. Also these principles are guaranteed by the system of exercises and tasks of three levels of complexity which promotes increasing of motivation, self-development, self-realization of subjects of educational process

Water use efficiency and crop water balance of rainfed wheat in a semi-arid environment: sensitivity of future changes to projected climate changes and soil type

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yanmin; Liu, De Li; Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin; O'Leary, Garry; Macadam, Ian; Yang, Yonghui

2016-02-01

Wheat production is expected to be affected by climate change through changing components of the crop water balance such as rainfall, evapotranspiration (ET), runoff and drainage. We used the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-wheat model to simulate the potential impact of climate change on field water balance, ET and water use efficiency (WUE) under the SRES A2 emissions scenario. We ran APSIM with daily climate data statistically downscaled from 18 Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Twelve soil types of varying plant available water holding capacity (PAWC) at six sites across semi-arid southeastern Australia were considered. Biases in the GCM-simulated climate data were bias-corrected against observations for the 1961-1999 baseline period. However, biases in the APSIM output data relative to APSIM simulations forced with climate observations remained. A secondary bias correction was therefore performed on the APSIM outputs. Bias-corrected APSIM outputs for a future period (2021-2040) were compared with APSIM outputs generated using observations for the baseline period to obtain future changes. The results show that effective rainfall was decreased over all sites due to decreased growing season rainfall. ET was decreased through reduced soil evaporation and crop transpiration. There were no significant changes in runoff at any site. The variation in deep drainage between sites was much greater than for runoff, ranging from less than a few millimetres at the drier sites to over 100 mm at the wetter. However, in general, the averaged drainage over different soil types were not significantly different between the baseline (1961-1999) and future period of 2021-2040 ( P > 0.05). For the wetter sites, the variations in the future changes in drainage and runoff between the 18 GCMs were larger than those of the drier sites. At the dry sites, the variation in drainage decreased as PAWC increased. Overall, water use efficiency based on transpiration (WUE

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Mainali, Kumar P; Warren, Dan L; Dhileepan, Kunjithapatham; McConnachie, Andrew; Strathie, Lorraine; Hassan, Gul; Karki, Debendra; Shrestha, Bharat B; Parmesan, Camille

2015-12-01

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium

Increased Visceral Adipose Tissue Is an Independent Predictor for Future Development of Atherogenic Dyslipidemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Hwang, You-Cheol; Fujimoto, Wilfred Y; Hayashi, Tomoshige; Kahn, Steven E; Leonetti, Donna L; Boyko, Edward J

2016-02-01

Atherogenic dyslipidemia is frequently observed in persons with a greater amount of visceral adipose tissue (VAT). However, it is still uncertain whether VAT is independently associated with the future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia. The aim of this study was to determine whether baseline and changes in VAT and subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) are associated with future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia independent of baseline lipid levels and standard anthropometric indices. Community-based prospective cohort study with 5 years of follow-up. A total of 452 Japanese Americans (240 men, 212 women), aged 34-75 years were assessed at baseline and after 5 years of follow-up. Abdominal fat areas were measured by computed tomography. Atherogenic dyslipidemia was defined as one or more abnormalities in high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, or non-HDL cholesterol levels. Baseline VAT and change in VAT over 5 years were independently associated with log-transformed HDL cholesterol, log-transformed triglyceride, and non-HDL cholesterol after 5 years (standardized β = -0.126, 0.277, and 0.066 for baseline VAT, respectively, and -0.095, 0.223, and 0.090 for change in VAT, respectively). However, baseline and change in SAT were not associated with any future atherogenic lipid level. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, incremental change in VAT (odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.73 [1.20-2.48]; P = .003), triglycerides (4.01 [1.72-9.33]; P = .001), HDL cholesterol (0.32 [0.18-0.58]; P dyslipidemia independent of age, sex, diastolic blood pressure, homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance, body mass index (BMI), change in BMI, SAT, and baseline atherogenic lipid levels. Baseline and change in VAT were independent predictors for future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia. However, BMI, waist circumference, and SAT were not associated with future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia.

Fast flux test facility, transition project plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guttenberg, S.

1994-01-01

The FFTF Transition Project Plan, Revision 1, provides changes and project baseline for the deactivation activities necessary to transition the FFTF to a radiologically and industrially safe shutdown condition

Fast flux test facility, transition project plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guttenberg, S.

1994-11-15

The FFTF Transition Project Plan, Revision 1, provides changes and project baseline for the deactivation activities necessary to transition the FFTF to a radiologically and industrially safe shutdown condition.

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruth, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Aden, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Warner, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Inman, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Simpkins, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Argo, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2013-03-01

The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruth, M.; Mai, T.; Newes, E.; Aden, A.; Warner, E.; Uriarte, C.; Inman, D.; Simpkins, T.; Argo, A.

2013-03-01

The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L

2017-08-15

The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2017-04-01

Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium.

Science.gov (United States)

Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P; Kunst, Anton E

2011-04-01

Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild disability is not. Using data from the GLOBE study (Gezondheid en Levensomstandigheden Bevolking Eindhoven en omstreken), the association of three levels of self-reported disabilities in activities of daily living with age and proximity to death was studied using logistic regression models. Regression estimates were used to estimate the number of life years with disability for life spans of 75 and 85 years. Odds ratios of 0.976 (not significant) for mild disability, 1.137 for moderate disability, and 1.231 for severe disability showed a stronger effect of proximity to death for more severe levels of disability. A 10-year increase of life span was estimated to result in a substantial expansion of mild disability (4.6 years) compared with a small expansion of moderate (0.7 years) and severe (0.9 years) disability. These findings support the theory of a dynamic equilibrium. Projections of the future burden of disability could be substantially improved by connecting to this theory and incorporating information on proximity to death. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Knowledge Management in a Project Environment: Organisational CT and Project Influences

OpenAIRE

Polyaninova, Taya

2011-01-01

During a project implementation various forms of information and experience are generated within the organization. If this accumulated knowledge is not recorded and shared amongst other projects, this knowledge will be lost and no longer be available to assist future projects. This may lead to increased future projects costs as resources, time and money will be wasted on redefining the knowledge that once existed within the company. By not capturing and redeploying this knowledge, the quality...

Program Baseline Change Control Procedure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-02-01

This procedure establishes the responsibilities and process for approving initial issues of and changes to the technical, cost, and schedule baselines, and selected management documents developed by the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) for the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System. This procedure implements the OCRWM Baseline Management Plan and DOE Order 4700.1, Chg 1. It streamlines the change control process to enhance integration, accountability, and traceability of Level 0 and Level I decisions through standardized Baseline Change Proposal (BCP) forms to be used by the Level 0, 1, 2, and 3 Baseline Change Control Boards (BCCBs) and to be tracked in the OCRWM-wide Configuration Information System (CIS) Database.This procedure applies to all technical, cost, and schedule baselines controlled by the Energy System Acquisition Advisory Board (ESAAB) BCCB (Level 0) and, OCRWM Program Baseline Control Board (PBCCB) (Level 1). All baseline BCPs initiated by Level 2 or lower BCCBs, which require approval from ESAAB or PBCCB, shall be processed in accordance with this procedure. This procedure also applies to all Program-level management documents controlled by the OCRWM PBCCB

1993 baseline solid waste management system description

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Armacost, L.L.; Fowler, R.A.; Konynenbelt, H.S.

1994-02-01

Pacific Northwest Laboratory has prepared this report under the direction of Westinghouse Hanford Company. The report provides an integrated description of the system planned for managing Hanford's solid low-level waste, low-level mixed waste, transuranic waste, and transuranic mixed waste. The primary purpose of this document is to illustrate a collective view of the key functions planned at the Hanford Site to handle existing waste inventories, as well as solid wastes that will be generated in the future. By viewing this system as a whole rather than as individual projects, key facility interactions and requirements are identified and a better understanding of the overall system may be gained. The system is described so as to form a basis for modeling the system at various levels of detail. Model results provide insight into issues such as facility capacity requirements, alternative system operating strategies, and impacts of system changes (ie., startup dates). This description of the planned Hanford solid waste processing system: defines a baseline system configuration; identifies the entering waste streams to be managed within the system; identifies basic system functions and waste flows; and highlights system constraints. This system description will evolve and be revised as issues are resolved, planning decisions are made, additional data are collected, and assumptions are tested and changed. Out of necessity, this document will also be revised and updated so that a documented system description, which reflects current system planning, is always available for use by engineers and managers. It does not provide any results generated from the many alternatives that will be modeled in the course of analyzing solid waste disposal options; such results will be provided in separate documents

Potential for Coal Power Plants to Co-Fire with Woody Biomass in the U. S. North, 2010-2030: A Technical Document Supporting the Northern Forest Futures Project

Science.gov (United States)

Michael E. Goerndt; Francisco X. Aguilar; Kenneth E. Skog

2015-01-01

Future use of woody biomass to produce electric power in the U.S. North can have an important influence on timber production, carbon storage in forests, and net carbon emissions from producing electric power. The Northern Forest Futures Project (NFFP) has provided regional- and state-level projections of standing forest biomass, land-use change, and timber harvest,...

Pre operational background radiation monitoring around Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project site - a decade long experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vijayakumar, B.; George, Thomas; Sundara Rajan, P.; Selvi, B.S.; Balamurugan, M.; Pandit, G.G.; Ravi, P.M.; Tripathi, R.M.

2014-01-01

Pre-operational environmental background radiation monitoring around nuclear power plants is very important to understand baseline values existing in the site and also to identify any hot spots of naturally occurring high background radiation areas and their sources. These baseline measurements will act as a benchmark for future comparison after the reactors go into operation. The radiation measurements are continued during the operational phase of the plant and the results are compared to see whether there is any impact of the operation of the plant on the environment. A comprehensive background radiation monitoring plan has been in vogue at site from 2004 to meet this objective. This paper describes the different monitoring strategies adopted around Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project site and throws light on the pre operational background radiation levels in the environment

Seismic studies for Fermilab future collider projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauh, J.; Shiltsev, V.

1997-11-01

Ground motion can cause significant beam emittance growth and orbit oscillations in large hadron colliders due to a vibration of numerous focusing magnets. Larger accelerator ring circumference leads to smaller revolution frequency and, e.g. for the Fermilab Very Large Hadron Collider(VLHC) 50-150 Hz vibrations are of particular interest as they are resonant with the beam betatron frequency. Seismic measurements at an existing large accelerator under operation can help to estimate the vibrations generated by the technical systems in future machines. Comparison of noisy and quiet microseismic conditions might be useful for proper choice of technical solutions for future colliders. This article presents results of wide-band seismic measurements at the Fermilab site, namely, in the tunnel of the Tevatron and on the surface nearby, and in two deep tunnels in the Illinois dolomite which is though to be a possible geological environment of the future accelerators

An automated baseline correction protocol for infrared spectra of atmospheric aerosols collected on polytetrafluoroethylene (Teflon) filters

Science.gov (United States)

Kuzmiakova, Adele; Dillner, Ann M.; Takahama, Satoshi

2016-06-01

A growing body of research on statistical applications for characterization of atmospheric aerosol Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) samples collected on polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) filters (e.g., Russell et al., 2011; Ruthenburg et al., 2014) and a rising interest in analyzing FT-IR samples collected by air quality monitoring networks call for an automated PTFE baseline correction solution. The existing polynomial technique (Takahama et al., 2013) is not scalable to a project with a large number of aerosol samples because it contains many parameters and requires expert intervention. Therefore, the question of how to develop an automated method for baseline correcting hundreds to thousands of ambient aerosol spectra given the variability in both environmental mixture composition and PTFE baselines remains. This study approaches the question by detailing the statistical protocol, which allows for the precise definition of analyte and background subregions, applies nonparametric smoothing splines to reproduce sample-specific PTFE variations, and integrates performance metrics from atmospheric aerosol and blank samples alike in the smoothing parameter selection. Referencing 794 atmospheric aerosol samples from seven Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environment (IMPROVE) sites collected during 2011, we start by identifying key FT-IR signal characteristics, such as non-negative absorbance or analyte segment transformation, to capture sample-specific transitions between background and analyte. While referring to qualitative properties of PTFE background, the goal of smoothing splines interpolation is to learn the baseline structure in the background region to predict the baseline structure in the analyte region. We then validate the model by comparing smoothing splines baseline-corrected spectra with uncorrected and polynomial baseline (PB)-corrected equivalents via three statistical applications: (1) clustering analysis, (2) functional group quantification

The Global Climate and Energy Project at Stanford University: Fundamental Research Towards Future Energy Technologies

Science.gov (United States)

Milne, Jennifer L.; Sassoon, Richard E.; Hung, Emilie; Bosshard, Paolo; Benson, Sally M.

The Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP), at Stanford University, invests in research with the potential to lead to energy technologies with lower greenhouse gas emissions than current energy technologies. GCEP is sponsored by four international companies, ExxonMobil, GE, Schlumberger, and Toyota and supports research programs in academic institutions worldwide. Research falls into the broad areas of carbon based energy systems, renewables, electrochemistry, and the electric grid. Within these areas research efforts are underway that are aimed at achieving break-throughs and innovations that greatly improve efficiency, performance, functionality and cost of many potential energy technologies of the future including solar, batteries, fuel cells, biofuels, hydrogen storage and carbon capture and storage. This paper presents a summary of some of GCEP's activities over the past 7 years with current research areas of interest and potential research directions in the near future.

Characteristics of the process of culture development project activities (culture of social engineering) at the future bachelors of social work

OpenAIRE

Natalya I. Nikitina; Elena Yu. Romanovaa; Tatyana V. Vasilyeva; Irina N. Nikishina; Veronica M. Grebennikova

2017-01-01

In modern Russia professional activity productivity of social work specialist depends largely on his abilities and skills in the field of social design. University graduate`s (social work bachelor`s) high level of professional-project activity culture can be regarded as one of the necessary conditions of successful labour market adaptation of young specialists in social sphere institutions. The article discusses various aspects of future social work bachelors` vocational project activity cult...

The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d' Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-01-01

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

Data publishing - visions of the future

Science.gov (United States)

Schäfer, Leonie; Klump, Jens; Bertelmann, Roland; Klar, Jochen; Enke, Harry; Rathmann, Torsten; Koudela, Daniela; Köhler, Klaus; Müller-Pfefferkorn, Ralph; van Uytvanck, Dieter; Strathmann, Stefan; Engelhardt, Claudia

2013-04-01

This poster describes future scenarios of information infrastructures in science and other fields of research. The scenarios presented are based on practical experience resulting from interaction with research data in a research center and its library, and further enriched by the results of a baseline study of existing data repositories and data infrastructures. The baseline study was conducted as part of the project "Requirements for a multi-disciplinary research data infrastructure (Radieschen)", which is funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG). Current changes in information infrastructures pose new challenges to libraries and scientific journals, which both act as information service providers, facilitating access to digital media, support publications of research data and enable their long-term archiving. Digital media and research data open new aspects in the field of activity of libraries and scientific journals. What will a library of the future look like? Will a library purely serve as interface to data centres? Will libraries and data centres merge into a new service unit? Will a future library be the interface to academic cloud services? Scientific journals already converted from mostly print editions to print and e-journals. What type of journals will emerge in the future? Is there a role for data-centred journals? Will there be journals to publish software code to make this type of research result citable and a part of the record of science? Just as users evolve from being consumers of information into producers, the role of information service providers, such as libraries, changes from a purely supporting to a contributing role. Furthermore, the role of the library changes from a central point of access for the search of publications to an important link in the value-adding chain from author to publication. Journals for software publication might be another vision for the future in data publishing. Software forms the missing link between big

Projecting county-level populations under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Stanley J. Zarnoch; H. Ken Cordell; Carter J. Betz

2010-01-01

County-level population projections from 2010 to 2060 are developed under three national population growth scenarios for reporting in the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. These population growth scenarios are tied to global futures scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a program within the United Nations...

CryoSat SAR/SARin Level1b products: assessment of BaselineC and improvements towards BaselineD

Science.gov (United States)

Scagliola, Michele; Fornari, Marco; Bouffard, Jerome; Parrinello, Tommaso

2017-04-01

CryoSat was launched on the 8th April 2010 and is the first European ice mission dedicated to the monitoring of precise changes in the thickness of polar ice sheets and floating sea ice. Cryosat carries an innovative radar altimeter called the Synthetic Aperture Interferometric Altimeter (SIRAL), that transmits pulses at a high pulse repetition frequency thus making the received echoes phase coherent and suitable for azimuth processing. This allows to reach a significantly improved along track resolution with respect to traditional pulse-width limited altimeters. CryoSat is the first altimetry mission operating in SAR mode and continuous improvements in the Level1 Instrument Processing Facility (IPF1) are being identified, tested and validated in order to improve the quality of the Level1b products. The current IPF, Baseline C, was released in operation in April 2015 and the second CryoSat reprocessing campaign was jointly initiated, taking benefit of the upgrade implemented in the IPF1 processing chain but also of some specific configurations for the calibration corrections. In particular, the CryoSat Level1b BaselineC products generated in the framework of the second reprocessing campaign include refined information for what concerns the mispointing angles and the calibration corrections. This poster will thus detail thus the evolutions that are currently planned for the CryoSat BaselineD SAR/SARin Level1b products and the corresponding quality improvements that are expected.

Oxide and nitride TRU-fuels: lessons drawn from the CONFIRM and FUTURE projects of the 5. European framework programme