WorldWideScience

Sample records for project future baseline

  1. COMPARISON OF THREE METHODS TO PROJECT FUTURE BASELINE CARBON EMISSIONS IN TEMPERATE RAINFOREST, CURINANCO, CHILE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patrick Gonzalez; Antonio Lara; Jorge Gayoso; Eduardo Neira; Patricio Romero; Leonardo Sotomayor

    2005-07-14

    Deforestation of temperate rainforests in Chile has decreased the provision of ecosystem services, including watershed protection, biodiversity conservation, and carbon sequestration. Forest conservation can restore those ecosystem services. Greenhouse gas policies that offer financing for the carbon emissions avoided by preventing deforestation require a projection of future baseline carbon emissions for an area if no forest conservation occurs. For a proposed 570 km{sup 2} conservation area in temperate rainforest around the rural community of Curinanco, Chile, we compared three methods to project future baseline carbon emissions: extrapolation from Landsat observations, Geomod, and Forest Restoration Carbon Analysis (FRCA). Analyses of forest inventory and Landsat remote sensing data show 1986-1999 net deforestation of 1900 ha in the analysis area, proceeding at a rate of 0.0003 y{sup -1}. The gross rate of loss of closed natural forest was 0.042 y{sup -1}. In the period 1986-1999, closed natural forest decreased from 20,000 ha to 11,000 ha, with timber companies clearing natural forest to establish plantations of non-native species. Analyses of previous field measurements of species-specific forest biomass, tree allometry, and the carbon content of vegetation show that the dominant native forest type, broadleaf evergreen (bosque siempreverde), contains 370 {+-} 170 t ha{sup -1} carbon, compared to the carbon density of non-native Pinus radiata plantations of 240 {+-} 60 t ha{sup -1}. The 1986-1999 conversion of closed broadleaf evergreen forest to open broadleaf evergreen forest, Pinus radiata plantations, shrublands, grasslands, urban areas, and bare ground decreased the carbon density from 370 {+-} 170 t ha{sup -1} carbon to an average of 100 t ha{sup -1} (maximum 160 t ha{sup -1}, minimum 50 t ha{sup -1}). Consequently, the conversion released 1.1 million t carbon. These analyses of forest inventory and Landsat remote sensing data provided the data to

  2. Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes in the Great Plains region of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchard, Michelle; Butman, David; Hawbaker, Todd; Li, Zhengpeng; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; McDonald, Cory; Reker, Ryan R.; Sayler, Kristi; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2011-01-01

    This assessment was conducted to fulfill the requirements of section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 and to improve understanding of carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in the Great Plains region in the central part of the United States. The assessment examined carbon storage, carbon fluxes, and other GHG fluxes (methane and nitrous oxide) in all major terrestrial ecosystems (forests, grasslands/shrublands, agricultural lands, and wetlands) and freshwater aquatic systems (rivers, streams, lakes, and impoundments) in two time periods: baseline (generally in the first half of the 2010s) and future (projections from baseline to 2050). The assessment was based on measured and observed data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and many other agencies and organizations and used remote sensing, statistical methods, and simulation models.

  3. Baseline methodologies for clean development mechanism projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, M.K. (ed.); Shrestha, R.M.; Sharma, S.; Timilsina, G.R.; Kumar, S.

    2005-11-15

    The Kyoto Protocol and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) came into force on 16th February 2005 with its ratification by Russia. The increasing momentum of this process is reflected in more than 100 projects having been submitted to the CDM Executive Board (CDM-EB) for approval of the baselines and monitoring methodologies, which is the first step in developing and implementing CDM projects. A CDM project should result in a net decrease of GHG emissions below any level that would have resulted from other activities implemented in the absence of that CDM project. The 'baseline' defines the GHG emissions of activities that would have been implemented in the absence of a CDM project. The baseline methodology is the process/algorithm for establishing that baseline. The baseline, along with the baseline methodology, are thus the most critical element of any CDM project towards meeting the important criteria of CDM, which are that a CDM should result in 'real, measurable, and long term benefits related to the mitigation of climate change'. This guidebook is produced within the frame work of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) facilitated 'Capacity Development for the Clean Development Mechanism (CD4CDM)' Project. This document is published as part of the projects effort to develop guidebooks that cover important issues such as project finance, sustainability impacts, legal framework and institutional framework. These materials are aimed to help stakeholders better understand the CDM and are believed to eventually contribute to maximize the effect of the CDM in achieving the ultimate goal of UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol. This Guidebook should be read in conjunction with the information provided in the two other guidebooks entitled, 'Clean Development Mechanism: Introduction to the CDM' and 'CDM Information and Guidebook' developed under the CD4CDM project. (BA)

  4. Baseline methodologies for clean development mechanism projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, M.K.; Shrestha, R.M.; Sharma, S.; Timilsina, G.R.; Kumar, S.

    2005-11-01

    The Kyoto Protocol and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) came into force on 16th February 2005 with its ratification by Russia. The increasing momentum of this process is reflected in more than 100 projects having been submitted to the CDM Executive Board (CDM-EB) for approval of the baselines and monitoring methodologies, which is the first step in developing and implementing CDM projects. A CDM project should result in a net decrease of GHG emissions below any level that would have resulted from other activities implemented in the absence of that CDM project. The 'baseline' defines the GHG emissions of activities that would have been implemented in the absence of a CDM project. The baseline methodology is the process/algorithm for establishing that baseline. The baseline, along with the baseline methodology, are thus the most critical element of any CDM project towards meeting the important criteria of CDM, which are that a CDM should result in 'real, measurable, and long term benefits related to the mitigation of climate change'. This guidebook is produced within the frame work of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) facilitated 'Capacity Development for the Clean Development Mechanism (CD4CDM)' Project. This document is published as part of the projects effort to develop guidebooks that cover important issues such as project finance, sustainability impacts, legal framework and institutional framework. These materials are aimed to help stakeholders better understand the CDM and are believed to eventually contribute to maximize the effect of the CDM in achieving the ultimate goal of UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol. This Guidebook should be read in conjunction with the information provided in the two other guidebooks entitled, 'Clean Development Mechanism: Introduction to the CDM' and 'CDM Information and Guidebook' developed under the CD4CDM project. (BA)

  5. Waste management project technical baseline description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sederburg, J.P.

    1997-01-01

    A systems engineering approach has been taken to describe the technical baseline under which the Waste Management Project is currently operating. The document contains a mission analysis, function analysis, requirement analysis, interface definitions, alternative analysis, system definition, documentation requirements, implementation definitions, and discussion of uncertainties facing the Project

  6. Future short baseline neutrino oscillation experiments

    CERN Document Server

    Camilleri, L L

    1999-01-01

    A neutrino mass that would make a significant contribution to the hidden mass of the universe and thus contribute to the solving of the dark matter puzzle is still the most valuable prize in neutrino physics. This would presumably be through a mixed dark matter scenario and would involve a neutrino mass of 1-2 eV. Assuming the Delta m/sup 2/ observed in neutrino oscillations is the difference between this mass and a negligible mass of a second neutrino, CHORUS and NOMAD would only have a sensitivity of sin/sup 2/ 2 theta ~10/sup -3/ in this domain. The aim of future nu /sub mu /- nu /sub tau / oscillation searches is therefore to improve the sensitivity of the search by about an order of magnitude. NOMAD has a number of events looking exactly like a nu /sub tau / interaction should but, in spite of the good kinematical capabilities of the experiment, the number of such events is consistent with the number of expected background events. Therefore to improve on this situation it is imperative to be able to dete...

  7. Aurora Mine project - historical resources baseline study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reeves, B.

    1996-01-01

    This volume contains the results of a base line archaeological study of the Aurora Mine Project local study area. It was compiled in support of Syncrude Canada's application to the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (AEUB) and Alberta Environmental Protection to construct and operate it new Aurora Mine, located northeast of Fort McMurray, Alberta. The objective of this study was to compile, consolidate, review and analyze the reports for the area compiled over the past 22 years in and adjacent to the local study area (LSA), particularly those of now existing and Syncrude projects, and previously proposed Alsands and OSLO projects. The report is a summary of the human history in the area including pre-contact native archaeological sites, past archaeological studies, the Hinterland site pattern, post-contact native traditional sites, oil sands exploration/development related sites and paleontological sites in the subject area, and areas adjacent to it. 150 refs., 5 tabs., 43 figs

  8. Projecting future sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

    2006-01-01

    California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future

  9. Summaries and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egelstaff, P.A.

    1989-01-01

    In this paper the author gives a brief summary of this meeting. He discusses the status at the current neutron sources and future sources. The current problems with targets, moderators, performance of storage rings and shields are briefly mentioned. Finally, he speculates on the prospects of neutron sources for the future and gives his version of the ultimate source

  10. Project management with dynamic scheduling baseline scheduling, risk analysis and project control

    CERN Document Server

    Vanhoucke, Mario

    2013-01-01

    The topic of this book is known as dynamic scheduling, and is used to refer to three dimensions of project management and scheduling: the construction of a baseline schedule and the analysis of a project schedule's risk as preparation of the project control phase during project progress. This dynamic scheduling point of view implicitly assumes that the usability of a project's baseline schedule is rather limited and only acts as a point of reference in the project life cycle.

  11. Spent Nuclear Fuel Project technical baseline document. Fiscal year 1995: Volume 1, Baseline description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Womack, J.C.; Cramond, R.; Paedon, R.J.

    1995-01-01

    This document is a revision to WHC-SD-SNF-SD-002, and is issued to support the individual projects that make up the Spent Nuclear Fuel Project in the lower-tier functions, requirements, interfaces, and technical baseline items. It presents results of engineering analyses since Sept. 1994. The mission of the SNFP on the Hanford site is to provide safety, economic, environmentally sound management of Hanford SNF in a manner that stages it to final disposition. This particularly involves K Basin fuel, although other SNF is involved also

  12. Baseline review of the U.S. LHC Accelerator project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-02-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) Review of the U.S. Large Hadron Collider (LHC) Accelerator project was conducted February 23--26, 1998, at the request of Dr. John R. O'Fallon, Director, Division of High Energy Physics, Office of Energy Research, U.S. DOE. This is the first review of the U.S. LHC Accelerator project. Overall, the Committee found that the U.S. LHC Accelerator project effort is off to a good start and that the proposed scope is very conservative for the funding available. The Committee recommends that the project be initially baselined at a total cost of $110 million, with a scheduled completion data of 2005. The U.S. LHC Accelerator project will supply high technology superconducting magnets for the interaction regions (IRs) and the radio frequency (rf) straight section of the LHC intersecting storage rings. In addition, the project provides the cryogenic support interface boxes to service the magnets and radiation absorbers to protect the IR dipoles and the inner triplet quadrupoles. US scientists will provide support in analyzing some of the detailed aspects of accelerator physics in the two rings. The three laboratories participating in this project are Brookhaven National Laboratory, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The Committee was very impressed by the technical capabilities of the US LHC Accelerator project team. Cost estimates for each subsystem of the US LHC Accelerator project were presented to the Review Committee, with a total cost including contingency of $110 million (then year dollars). The cost estimates were deemed to be conservative. A re-examination of the funding profile, costs, and schedules on a centralized project basis should lead to an increased list of deliverables. The Committee concluded that the proposed scope of US deliverables to CERN can be readily accomplished with the $110 million total cost baseline for the project. The current deliverables should serve as

  13. Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-07-01

    Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley

  14. Neutrino Oscillation Parameter Sensitivity in Future Long-Baseline Experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bass, Matthew [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

    2014-01-01

    The study of neutrino interactions and propagation has produced evidence for physics beyond the standard model and promises to continue to shed light on rare phenomena. Since the discovery of neutrino oscillations in the late 1990s there have been rapid advances in establishing the three flavor paradigm of neutrino oscillations. The 2012 discovery of a large value for the last unmeasured missing angle has opened the way for future experiments to search for charge-parity symmetry violation in the lepton sector. This thesis presents an analysis of the future sensitivity to neutrino oscillations in the three flavor paradigm for the T2K, NO A, LBNE, and T2HK experiments. The theory of the three flavor paradigm is explained and the methods to use these theoretical predictions to design long baseline neutrino experiments are described. The sensitivity to the oscillation parameters for each experiment is presented with a particular focus on the search for CP violation and the measurement of the neutrino mass hierarchy. The variations of these sensitivities with statistical considerations and experimental design optimizations taken into account are explored. The effects of systematic uncertainties in the neutrino flux, interaction, and detection predictions are also considered by incorporating more advanced simulations inputs from the LBNE experiment.

  15. Baseline projections of transportation energy consumption by mode: 1981 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Millar, M; Bunch, J; Vyas, A; Kaplan, M; Knorr, R; Mendiratta, V; Saricks, C

    1982-04-01

    A comprehensive set of activity and energy-demand projections for each of the major transportation modes and submodes is presented. Projections are developed for a business-as-usual scenario, which provides a benchmark for assessing the effects of potential conservation strategies. This baseline scenario assumes a continuation of present trends, including fuel-efficiency improvements likely to result from current efforts of vehicle manufacturers. Because of anticipated changes in fuel efficiency, fuel price, modal shifts, and a lower-than-historic rate of economic growth, projected growth rates in transportation activity and energy consumption depart from historic patterns. The text discusses the factors responsible for this departure, documents the assumptions and methodologies used to develop the modal projections, and compares the projections with other efforts.

  16. The optimized baseline project: Reinventing environmental restoration at Hanford

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodenough, J.D.; Janaskie, M.T.; Kleinen, P.J.

    1994-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL) is using a strategic planning effort (termed the Optimized Baseline Project) to develop a new approach to the Hanford Environmental Restoration program. This effort seeks to achieve a quantum leap improvement in performance through results oriented prioritization of activities. This effort was conducted in parallel with the renegotiation of the Tri-Party Agreement and provided DOE with an opportunity to propose innovative initiatives to promote cost effectiveness, accelerate progress in the Hanford Environmental Restoration Program and involve stakeholders in the decision-making process. The Optimized Baseline project is an innovative approach to program planning and decision-making in several respects. First, the process is a top down, value driven effort that responds to values held by DOE, the regulatory community and the public. Second, planning is conducted in a way that reinforces the technical management process at Richland, involves the regulatory community in substantive decisions, and includes the public. Third, the Optimized Baseline Project is being conducted as part of a sitewide Hanford initiative to reinvent Government. The planning process used for the Optimized Baseline Project has many potential applications at other sites and in other programs where there is a need to build consensus among diverse, independent groups of stakeholders and decisionmakers. The project has successfully developed and demonstrated an innovative approach to program planning that accelerates the pace of cleanup, involves the regulators as partners with DOE in priority setting, and builds public understanding and support for the program through meaningful opportunities for involvement

  17. FutureGen Project Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cabe, Jim; Elliott, Mike

    2010-09-30

    This report summarizes the comprehensive siting, permitting, engineering, design, and costing activities completed by the FutureGen Industrial Alliance, the Department of Energy, and associated supporting subcontractors to develop a first of a kind near zero emissions integrated gasification combined cycle power plant and carbon capture and storage project (IGCC-CCS). With the goal to design, build, and reliably operate the first IGCC-CCS facility, FutureGen would have been the lowest emitting pulverized coal power plant in the world, while providing a timely and relevant basis for coal combustion power plants deploying carbon capture in the future. The content of this report summarizes key findings and results of applicable project evaluations; modeling, design, and engineering assessments; cost estimate reports; and schedule and risk mitigation from initiation of the FutureGen project through final flow sheet analyses including capital and operating reports completed under DOE award DE-FE0000587. This project report necessarily builds upon previously completed siting, design, and development work executed under DOE award DE-FC26- 06NT4207 which included the siting process; environmental permitting, compliance, and mitigation under the National Environmental Policy Act; and development of conceptual and design basis documentation for the FutureGen plant. For completeness, the report includes as attachments the siting and design basis documents, as well as the source documentation for the following: • Site evaluation and selection process and environmental characterization • Underground Injection Control (UIC) Permit Application including well design and subsurface modeling • FutureGen IGCC-CCS Design Basis Document • Process evaluations and technology selection via Illinois Clean Coal Review Board Technical Report • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance for slurry-fed gasifier configuration • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance

  18. Project W-320 thermal hydraulic model benchmarking and baselining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathyanarayana, K.

    1998-01-01

    Project W-320 will be retrieving waste from Tank 241-C-106 and transferring the waste to Tank 241-AY-102. Waste in both tanks must be maintained below applicable thermal limits during and following the waste transfer. Thermal hydraulic process control models will be used for process control of the thermal limits. This report documents the process control models and presents a benchmarking of the models with data from Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102. Revision 1 of this report will provide a baselining of the models in preparation for the initiation of sluicing

  19. Richland Environmental Restoration Project Baseline Multi Year Work Plan Volume 1 Richland Environmental Restoration Project Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wintczak, T.M.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this project specification is to provide an overall scoping and document for the Environmental Restoration project, and to provide a link between the overall Hanford Site scope and the ER project. The purpose of this project specification is to provide an overall scoping document for the ER Project, and to provide a link between the overall Hanford Site scope and the ER Project. Additionally, this specification provides an integrated and consolidated source of information for the Richland ER Project. It identifies the ER Project vision, mission, and goals, as well as the operational history of the Hanford Site, along with environmental setting and hazards. This ER Project Specification is part of the overall ER Project baseline

  20. Expedited technology demonstration project (Revised mixed waste management facility project) Project baseline revision 4.0 and FY98 plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adamson, M. G.

    1997-01-01

    The re-baseline of the Expedited Technology Demonstration Project (Revised Mixed Waste Facility Project) is designated as Project Baseline Revision 4.0. The last approved baseline was identified as Project Baseline Revision 3.0 and was issued in October 1996. Project Baseline Revision 4.0 does not depart from the formal DOE guidance followed by, and contained in, Revision 3.0. This revised baseline document describes the MSO and Final Forms testing activities that will occur during FY98, the final year of the ETD Project. The cost estimate for work during FY98 continues to be $2.OM as published in Revision 3.0. However, the funds will be all CENRTC rather than the OPEX/CENTRC split previously anticipated. LLNL has waived overhead charges on ETD Project CENRTC funds since the beginning of project activities. By requesting the $2.OM as all CENTRC a more aggressive approach to staffing and testing can be taken. Due to a cost under- run condition during FY97 procurements were made and work was accomplished, with the knowledge of DOE, in the Feed Preparation and Final Forms areas that were not in the scope of Revision 3.0. Feed preparation activities for FY98 have been expanded to include the drum opening station/enclosure previously deleted

  1. Baseline Projection Data Book: GRI baseline projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand to 2010. 1992 Edition. Volume 1 and Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; Koklauner, A.K.

    1992-01-01

    The 1992 Baseline Projection Data Book provides backup data in tabular form for the 1992 GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand to 2010. Summary tables and data for the residential, commercial, industrial, electric utility, and transportation sectors are presented in the volume

  2. Future Long-Baseline Neutrino Facilities and Detectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milind Diwan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We review the ongoing effort in the US, Japan, and Europe of the scientific community to study the location and the detector performance of the next-generation long-baseline neutrino facility. For many decades, research on the properties of neutrinos and the use of neutrinos to study the fundamental building blocks of matter has unveiled new, unexpected laws of nature. Results of neutrino experiments have triggered a tremendous amount of development in theory: theories beyond the standard model or at least extensions of it and development of the standard solar model and modeling of supernova explosions as well as the development of theories to explain the matter-antimatter asymmetry in the universe. Neutrino physics is one of the most dynamic and exciting fields of research in fundamental particle physics and astrophysics. The next-generation neutrino detector will address two aspects: fundamental properties of the neutrino like mass hierarchy, mixing angles, and the CP phase, and low-energy neutrino astronomy with solar, atmospheric, and supernova neutrinos. Such a new detector naturally allows for major improvements in the search for nucleon decay. A next-generation neutrino observatory needs a huge, megaton scale detector which in turn has to be installed in a new, international underground laboratory, capable of hosting such a huge detector.

  3. Future Long-Baseline Neutrino Facilities and Detectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diwan, Milind [Brookhaven; Edgecock, Rob [Huddersfield U.; Hasegawa, Takuya [KEK, Tsukuba; Patzak, Thomas [APC, Paris; Shiozawa, Masato [Kamioka Observ.; Strait, Jim [Fermilab

    2013-01-01

    We review the ongoing effort in the US, Japan, and Europe of the scientific community to study the location and the detector performance of the next-generation long-baseline neutrino facility. For many decades, research on the properties of neutrinos and the use of neutrinos to study the fundamental building blocks of matter has unveiled new, unexpected laws of nature. Results of neutrino experiments have triggered a tremendous amount of development in theory: theories beyond the standard model or at least extensions of it and development of the standard solar model and modeling of supernova explosions as well as the development of theories to explain the matter-antimatter asymmetry in the universe. Neutrino physics is one of the most dynamic and exciting fields of research in fundamental particle physics and astrophysics. The next-generation neutrino detector will address two aspects: fundamental properties of the neutrino like mass hierarchy, mixing angles, and the CP phase, and low-energy neutrino astronomy with solar, atmospheric, and supernova neutrinos. Such a new detector naturally allows for major improvements in the search for nucleon decay. A next-generation neutrino observatory needs a huge, megaton scale detector which in turn has to be installed in a new, international underground laboratory, capable of hosting such a huge detector.

  4. Future Circular Collider Study FCC-he Baseline Parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Bruning, Oliver; Klein, Max; Pellegrini, Dario; Schulte, Daniel; Zimmermann, Frank

    2017-01-01

    Initial considerations are presented on the FCC-he, the electron-hadron collider con guration within the Future Circular Collider study. This note considers arguments for the choice of the electron beam energy based on physics, ep scattering kinematics and cost. The default con guration for the electron accelerator, as for the LHeC, is chosen to be a multi-turn energy recovery linac external to the proton beam tunnel. The main accelerator parameters of the FCC-he are discussed, assuming the concurrent operation of ep with the 100TeV cms energy pp collider. These are compared with the LHeC design concept, for increased performance as for a Higgs facility using the HL-LHC, and also the high energy HE-LHC ep collider configuration. Initial estimates are also provided for the luminosity performance of electron-ion colliders for the 60 GeV electron ERL when combined with the LHC, the HE-LHC and the FCC ion beams.

  5. Tools for Closure Project and Contract Management: Development of the Rocky Flats Integrated Closure Project Baseline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gelles, C. M.; Sheppard, F. R.

    2002-01-01

    This paper details the development of the Rocky Flats Integrated Closure Project Baseline - an innovative project management effort undertaken to ensure proactive management of the Rocky Flats Closure Contract in support of the Department's goal for achieving the safe closure of the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in December 2006. The accelerated closure of RFETS is one of the most prominent projects within the Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management program. As the first major former weapons plant to be remediated and closed, it is a first-of-kind effort requiring the resolution of multiple complex technical and institutional challenges. Most significantly, the closure of RFETS is dependent upon the shipment of all special nuclear material and wastes to other DOE sites. The Department is actively working to strengthen project management across programs, and there is increasing external interest in this progress. The development of the Rocky Flats Integrated Closure Project Baseline represents a groundbreaking and cooperative effort to formalize the management of such a complex project across multiple sites and organizations. It is original in both scope and process, however it provides a useful precedent for the other ongoing project management efforts within the Environmental Management program

  6. Policy implications of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand is summarized. Three broad implications concerning the future of the natural gas industry are highlighted: the residual impact of the August 1990 Gulf War on crude oil prices and the factors influencing the long-term price path, the impact of the growing number of environmental constraints on future energy use, and the effect of recent developments in gas production on future gas supply and price

  7. The Southern Forest Futures Project: technical report

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; John G. Greis

    2013-01-01

    Please visit the Southern Forest Futures Project website for more information.The Southern Forest Futures Project provides a science-based “futuring” analysis of the forests of the 13 States of the Southeastern United States. With findings...

  8. The Southern Forest Futures Project: summary report

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; John G. Greis

    2012-01-01

    The Southern Forest Futures Project provides a science-based “futuring” analysis of the forests of the 13 States of the Southeastern United States. With findings organized in a set of scenarios and using a combination of computer models and science synthesis, the authors of the Southern Forest Futures Project examine a variety of possible futures that could shape...

  9. Uncertainty of future projections of species distributions in mountainous regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Tang

    Full Text Available Multiple factors introduce uncertainty into projections of species distributions under climate change. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information used to calibrate a species distribution model and to downscale global climate model (GCM simulations to a finer spatial resolution is a particular concern for mountainous regions, as the spatial resolution of climate observing networks is often insufficient to detect the steep climatic gradients in these areas. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt modeling framework together with occurrence data on 21 understory bamboo species distributed across the mountainous geographic range of the Giant Panda, we examined the differences in projected species distributions obtained from two contrasting sources of baseline climate information, one derived from spatial interpolation of coarse-scale station observations and the other derived from fine-spatial resolution satellite measurements. For each bamboo species, the MaxEnt model was calibrated separately for the two datasets and applied to 17 GCM simulations downscaled using the delta method. Greater differences in the projected spatial distributions of the bamboo species were observed for the models calibrated using the different baseline datasets than between the different downscaled GCM simulations for the same calibration. In terms of the projected future climatically-suitable area by species, quantification using a multi-factor analysis of variance suggested that the sum of the variance explained by the baseline climate dataset used for model calibration and the interaction between the baseline climate data and the GCM simulation via downscaling accounted for, on average, 40% of the total variation among the future projections. Our analyses illustrate that the combined use of gridded datasets developed from station observations and satellite measurements can help estimate the uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline

  10. SRC-I Project Baseline. [SRC-I demonstration project near Owensboro, Kentucky

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1982-03-01

    The Process Design Criteria Specification forms the basis for process design for the 6000-TPSD SRC-I Demonstration Plant. It sets forth: basic engineering data, e.g., type and size of plant, feedstocks, product specifications, and atmospheric emission and waste disposal limits; utility conditions; equipment design criteria and sparing philosophy; and estimating criteria for economic considerations. Previously the formal ICRC Document No. 0001-01-002 has been submitted to DOE and revised, as necessary, to be consistent with the SRC-I Project Baseline. Revision 6, dated 19 March 1982, 51 pages, was forwarded to DOE on 19 March 1982.

  11. Le futur du project LHC

    CERN Multimedia

    Heyoka

    2007-01-01

    Since 2004, and specitally during the long study in 2005, we used the results of the LHC Project to evaluate differents parameters of the machiene (LHC). The final choices for the design of the machine are based partly on these results. (1,5 page)

  12. Future development of project management competences.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silvius, A.J.G.; Batenburg, R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a study into the expected development of the competences of the project manager in the year 2027. The study was performed amongst the members of IPMA-Netherlands during the summer of 2007. In the study the 46 competences of the International Competence Baseline 3 (ICB 3) were

  13. Projecting future drug expenditures--2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, James M; Shah, Nilay D; Vermeulen, Lee C; Doloresco, Fred; Martin, Patrick K; Blake, Sharon; Matusiak, Linda; Hunkler, Robert J; Schumock, Glen T

    2009-02-01

    Drug expenditure trends in 2007 and 2008, projected drug expenditures for 2009, and factors likely to influence drug expenditures are discussed. Various factors are likely to influence drug expenditures in 2009, including drugs in development, the diffusion of new drugs, drug safety concerns, generic drugs, Medicare Part D, and changes in the drug supply chain. The increasing availability of important generic drugs and drug safety concerns continue to moderate growth in drug expenditures. The drug supply chain remains dynamic and may influence drug expenditures, particularly in specialized therapeutic areas. Initial data suggest that the Medicare Part D benefit has influenced drug expenditures, but the ultimate impact of the benefit on drug expenditures remains unclear. From 2006 to 2007, total U.S. drug expenditures increased by 4.0%, with total spending rising from $276 billion to $287 billion. Drug expenditures in clinics continue to grow more rapidly than in other settings, with a 9.9% increase from 2006 to 2007. Hospital drug expenditures increased at a moderate rate of only 1.6% from 2006 to 2007; through the first nine months of 2008, hospital drug expenditures increased by only 2.8% compared with the same period in 2007. In 2009, we project a 0-2% increase in drug expenditures in outpatient settings, a 1-3% increase in expenditures for clinic-administered drugs, and a 1-3% increase in hospital drug expenditures.

  14. Projection of future climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Olivier; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Vial, Jessica; Brun, Eric; Cattiaux, Julien; Chauvin, Fabrice; Salas y Melia, David; Voldoire, Aurore; Bopp, Laurent; Braconnot, Pascale; Ciais, Philippe; Yiou, Pascal; Guilyardi, Eric; Mignot, Juliette; Guivarch, Celine

    2015-01-01

    Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

  15. Physics Projects for a Future CERN-LNGS Neutrino Programme

    OpenAIRE

    Picchi, P.; Pietropaolo, F.

    1998-01-01

    We present an overview of the future projects concerning the neutrino oscillation physics in Europe. Recently a joint CERN-LNGS scientific committee has reviewed several proposals both for the study of atmospheric neutrinos and for long (LBL) and short baseline (SBL) neutrino oscillation experiments. The committee has indicated the priority that the European high energy physics community should follows in the field of neutrino physics, namely a new massive, atmospheric neutrino detector and a...

  16. Project Management 2027; The Future of Project Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drs. A.J.G. Silvius

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a study into the expected development of the competences op the project manager in the year 2027. The study was performed amongst the members of IPMA-Netherlands during the summer of 2007. In the study the 46 competences of the International Competence Baseline 3 (ICB 3) were

  17. Expedited technology demonstration project. Project baseline revision 2.2 and FY96 plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-07-01

    The Expedited Technology Demonstration Project Plan, Mixed Waste Management Facility (MWMF) current baseline. The revised plan will focus efforts specifically on the demonstration of an integrated Molten Salt Oxidation (MSO) system. In addition to the MSO primary unit, offgas, and salt recycle subsystems, the demonstrations will include feed preparation and feed delivery systems, and the generation of robust final forms from process mineral residues. A simplified process flow chart for the expedited demonstration is provided. To minimize costs and to accelerate the schedule for deployment, the integrated system will be staged in an existing facility at LLNL equipped to handle hazardous and radioactive materials. The MSO systems will be activated in fiscal year 97, followed by the activation of feed preparation and final forms in fiscal year 98

  18. Baseline recommendations for greenhouse gas mitigation projects in the electric power sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kartha, Sivan; Lazarus, Michael [Stockholm Environment Institute/Tellus Institute, Boston, MA (United States); Bosi, Martina [International Energy Agency, Paris, 75 (France)

    2004-03-01

    The success of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and other credit-based emission trading regimes depends on effective methodologies for quantifying a project's emissions reductions. The key methodological challenge lies in estimating project's counterfactual emission baseline, through balancing the need for accuracy, transparency, and practicality. Baseline standardisation (e.g. methodology, parameters and/or emission rate) can be a means to achieve these goals. This paper compares specific options for developing standardised baselines for the electricity sector - a natural starting point for baseline standardisation given the magnitude of the emissions reductions opportunities. The authors review fundamental assumptions that baseline studies have made with respect to estimating the generation sources avoided by CDM or other emission-reducing projects. Typically, studies have assumed that such projects affect either the operation of existing power plants (the operating margin) or the construction of new generation facilities (the build margin). The authors show that both effects are important to consider and thus recommend a combined margin approach for most projects, based on grid-specific data. They propose a three-category framework, according to projects' relative scale and environmental risk. (Author)

  19. The outlook for natural gas markets in the GRI baseline projection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holtberg, P.D.

    1990-01-01

    Gas Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit organization that plans, manages, and develops financing for a cooperative research and development program for the mutual benefit of the natural gas industry and its customers. The research program consists of over 500 active research projects in natural gas supply and end use, and in gas industry operations, as well as related basic research. This paper summarizes the U.S. natural gas demand and supply outlook projected in a preliminary version of the 191 edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand. The projection used for this paper is from an early run of the GRI modeling structure. As such, it is subject to substantial revision before the Baseline Projection is finalized. The paper presents a projection of natural gas demand in the major end-use sectors and the slate of supply sources expected to meet that demand over the period from 1989 to 2010

  20. GRI baseline projection of U.S. Energy supply and demand to 2010. 1991 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; McCabe, N.C.

    1991-04-01

    The report summarizes the 1991 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand and presents a series of summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, and the natural gas supply and price trends. Appendixes include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1991 projection, a brief discussion of the potential for higher levels of gas demand, a description of industrial and commercial cogeneration, a description of the independent power producer (IPP) methodology and projection, a comparison of the 1991 edition with previous projections, and a discussion of additional data used in developing the projection

  1. Wind power projects in the CDM: Methodologies and tools for baselines, carbon financing and sustainability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ringius, L.; Grohnheit, P.E.; Nielsen, L.H.; Olivier, A.L.; Painuly, J.; Villavicencio, A.

    2002-12-01

    The report is intended to be a guidance document for project developers, investors, lenders, and CDM host countries involved in wind power projects in the CDM. The report explores in particular those issues that are important in CDM project assessment and development - that is, baseline development, carbon financing, and environmental sustainability. It does not deal in detail with those issues that are routinely covered in a standard wind power project assessment. The report tests, compares, and recommends methodologies for and approaches to baseline development. To present the application and implications of the various methodologies and approaches in a concrete context, Africa's largest wind farm-namely the 60 MW wind farm located in Zafarana, Egypt- is examined as a hypothetical CDM wind power project The report shows that for the present case example there is a difference of about 25% between the lowest (0.5496 tCO2/MWh) and the highest emission rate (0.6868 tCO 2 /MWh) estimated in accordance with these three standardized approaches to baseline development according to the Marrakesh Accord. This difference in emission factors comes about partly as a result of including hydroelectric power in the baseline scenario. Hydroelectric resources constitute around 21% of the generation capacity in Egypt, and, if excluding hydropower, the difference between the lowest and the highest baseline is reduced to 18%. Furthermore, since the two variations of the 'historical' baseline option examined result in the highest and the lowest baselines, by disregarding this baseline option altogether the difference between the lowest and the highest is reduced to 16%. The ES3-model, which the Systems Analysis Department at Risoe National Laboratory has developed, makes it possible for this report to explore the project-specific approach to baseline development in some detail. Based on quite disaggregated data on the Egyptian electricity system, including the wind power production

  2. Wind power projects in the CDM: Methodologies and tools for baselines, carbon financing and substainability analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ringius, L.; Grohnheit, Poul Erik; Nielsen, Lars Henrik

    2002-01-01

    and implications of the various methodologies and approaches in a concrete context, Africa's largest wind farm-namely the 60 MW wind farm located in Zafarana,Egypt is examined as a hypothetical CDM wind power project The report shows that for the present case example there is a difference of about 25% between......The report is intended to be a guidance document for project developers, investors, lenders, and CDM host countries involved in wind power projects in the CDM. The report explores in particular those issues that are important in CDM project assessment anddevelopment - that is, baseline development......, carbon financing, and environmental sustainability. It does not deal in detail with those issues that are routinely covered in a standard wind power project assessment. The report tests, compares, andrecommends methodologies for and approaches to baseline development. To present the application...

  3. Baselines For Land-Use Change In The Tropics: Application ToAvoided Deforestation Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Sandra; Hall, Myrna; Andrasko, Ken; Ruiz, Fernando; Marzoli, Walter; Guerrero, Gabriela; Masera, Omar; Dushku, Aaron; Dejong,Ben; Cornell, Joseph

    2007-06-01

    Although forest conservation activities particularly in thetropics offer significant potential for mitigating carbon emissions,these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena causedby the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle,particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has twomain components: the projected land-use change and the correspondingcarbon stocks in the applicable pools such as vegetation, detritus,products and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult toaddress analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparingthree models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of pasttrends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth tomore complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicitmodels of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomicfactors. The three models of the latter category used in the analysis atregional scale are The Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use andCarbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD)model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropicalregions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions,population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) SantaCruz State, Bolivia; (3) Parana State in Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico;(5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacan, Mexico. A comparison of all modeloutputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quitedifferent deforestation baseline. In general, the simplest FAC model,applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highestamount of forest loss (four out of six) and the LUCS model the leastamount of loss (four out of five). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, wefound that readily observable physical and biological factors as well asdistance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as importantas either sociological/demographic or economic

  4. Costing Future Complex and Novel Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) is reported. The work involves pioneering data collection, analysis, and tool development to support... philosophy of the work and future prospects for its wider application. Summary The United Kingdom National Audit Office Major Projects Report 2014 states...the work will be in tackling variety in the data collected, one of the “3 Vs ” of Big Data. The outline programme is shown in Figure 2. Programme

  5. Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

    2011-01-01

    Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

  6. Baseline process description for simulating plutonium oxide production for precalc project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pike, J. A. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2017-10-26

    Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) started a multi-year project, the PreCalc Project, to develop a computational simulation of a plutonium oxide (PuO2) production facility with the objective to study the fundamental relationships between morphological and physicochemical properties. This report provides a detailed baseline process description to be used by SRNL personnel and collaborators to facilitate the initial design and construction of the simulation. The PreCalc Project team selected the HB-Line Plutonium Finishing Facility as the basis for a nominal baseline process since the facility is operational and significant model validation data can be obtained. The process boundary as well as process and facility design details necessary for multi-scale, multi-physics models are provided.

  7. Baseline options and greenhouse gas emission reduction of clean development mechanism project in urban solid waste management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hiramatsu, Ai; Hanaki, K. [Department of Urban Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656 (Japan); Aramaki, T. [Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8904(Japan)

    2003-07-01

    The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) was adopted in the Kyoto Protocol as a flexibility mechanism to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) and has been started with such projects as improving efficiency of individual technology. Although applying various countermeasures to urban areas has significant potentials for reducing GHGs, these countermeasures have not been proposed as CDM projects in the practical stage. A CDM project needs to be validated that it will reduce GHGs additionally compared with a baseline, that is, a predictive value of GHG emissions in the absence of the project. This study examined the introduction of solid waste incineration with electricity generation into three different cities, A, B and C. The main solid waste treatment and the main fuel source are landfill and coal, respectively, in City A, incineration and natural gas in City B, and landfill and hydro in City C. GHG emission reductions of each city under several baseline options assumed here were evaluated. Even if the same technology is introduced, the emission reduction greatly varies according to the current condition and the future plan of the city: 1043-1406 kg CO2/t of waste in City A, 198-580 kg CO2/t in City B, and wide range of zero to over 1000 kg CO2/t in City C. Baseline options also cause significant difference in the emission reduction even in the same city (City C). Incinerating solid waste after removing plastics by source separation in City B increased GHG emission reduction potential up to 730-900 kg CO2/t, which enhances the effectiveness as a CDM project.

  8. Projected climate change futures for Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tadross, M

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa. In these experiments, a variable-resolution atmospheric global circulation model, CCAM, was applied as a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate both present-day and future climate... climate projection Observed climate RCM Climate forcing Climate simulation Statistical downscaling Dynamical downscaling 22 | Second Edition There are four pathways – RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. RCP 2.6 describes a scenario of very low...

  9. The Future of the Mississippi Delta: Shifting Baselines, Diminishing Resilience, and Growing Non-Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, J.

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystems and human communities of the Mississippi delta developed with predictable basin inputs, stable sea level, and as an open system with a high degree of interaction among drainage basin inputs, deltaic plain, and the coastal sea. Human activity changed altered the coast and lowered predictability. Management has become very energy intensive and dependent on cheap resources with more hard engineering and less ecological engineering. Pervasive alteration of the basin and delta and global change have altered the baseline and change is accelerating. Climate change projections include not only sea-level rise, but also more stronger hurricanes, increased large river floods, and more intense rainfall events and droughts. A sustainable Mississippi is outside of the boundaries of the current CMP.

  10. Policy implications of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010, 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The paper summarizes the 1993 edition of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, and presents the implications of the projection that are important for GRI research and development planning and the gas industry. The survey of supply and demand considerations is followed by a breakdown of energy demand by type of fuel, by consumption sector, and by service application. Gas supply and prices are analyzed in terms of two scenarios: a constrained energy demand scenario, and an optimistic scenario. Tables and charts accompany the summary

  11. Deploying innovative technologies to improve DOE D ampersand D project baselines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rose, R.W.

    1997-05-01

    The insertion of innovative technologies to replace baseline technologies used in cost estimation and planning of DOE D ampersand D projects is considered a high risk endeavor by project and programmatic decision makers. It is almost always considered safer to go with the open-quotes devil you knowclose quotes than use a new or untried technology, methodology or system. The decision on the specific technology to be utilized to remediate a problem is often made months or years in advance of execution, and the highly proscriptive documentation of agreements necessary to obtain stakeholder and regulator approval of remedial plans is often counterproductive to considering improved technologies

  12. GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010. 1992 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; Koklauner, A.B.

    1992-04-01

    The annual GRI baseline projection is the result of a complex modeling effort that seeks to achieve an internally consistent energy supply and demand outlook across all energy sources and end-use demand sectors. The year's projection includes the adoption of a new petroleum refinery methodology, the incorporation of a new approach to determining electric utility generating capacity heat rates, the extensive update of both the residential and commercial databases and methodologies, and the continued update of the GRI Hydrocarbon Model. The report presents a series of summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, and the natural gas supply and price trends. The appendices include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1992 edition of the projection, an analysis of the potential for higher levels of gas demand, a description of industrial and commercial cogeneration, a description of the independent power producer projection, a comparison of the 1992 edition of the projection with previous GRI projections, and a discussion of additional data used in developing the projection

  13. Ecological risk assessments for the baseline condition for the Port Hope and Port Granby Projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hart, D.R.; Kleb, H.

    2006-01-01

    Baseline ecological risk assessments were completed in and around the areas where cleanup of low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) and marginally contaminated soil (MCS) is planned under the Port Hope Area Initiative (PHAI). Both aquatic and terrestrial environments were assessed, in the vicinity of the proposed waste management facilities near Welcome and Port Granby, in locations potentially influenced by LLRW and MCS that will be cleaned up in future, and in reference locations that are not potentially influenced. The calculated doses and risk quotients suggest potential radiation effects for pre-cleanup benthic invertebrates in Port Hope Harbour, for any ducks feeding exclusively in this area, and for soil invertebrates in some other waste sites. In addition, risk quotients suggest potential baseline effects from some elements, particularly uranium and arsenic, in localized areas that are influenced by LLRW and MCS. (author)

  14. Baseline environmental survey of proposed uranium mining projects of Domiasiat, Meghalaya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khathing, D.T.; Myrboh, B.; Nongkynrih, P.; War, S.A.; Marbaniang, D.G.; Iongwai, P.S.

    2005-01-01

    West Khasi Hills District of Meghalaya is identified as having a large and rich deposits of Uranium. However, actual extraction on a commercial scale that may lead to an increase in the socio-economic development of the state in particular and the country in general, is yet to be undertaken. This is due to lack of any baseline environmental survey giving rise to speculative information and causing a fear psychosis in the minds of the locals populace about the negative effects of Uranium mining. A preoperational survey and environmental monitoring of the proposed mining sites and its adjacent areas would establish the baseline status of the natural radioactivity and some chemical constituents in different environmental matrices via. air, water, soil, biota and aquatic ecosystems. The North Eastern Hill University, Shillong, Meghalaya has undertaken the Project funded by DST and BRNS, Department of Atomic Energy, Govt. of India which aims to provide baseline environmental data on ambient air, water and soil quality in and around the proposed Uranium mining site of Domiasiat, West Khasi Hills in the state of Meghalaya. Trace elements (elements like Mg, Zn, Ca, K, Na, Se, As, Fe, Cu, Co, Cr, Ni, Pb, Cd, Mn etc) and the status of the activity in the samples are determined. (author)

  15. Photosynthetic energy conversion efficiency: setting a baseline for gauging future improvements in important food and biofuel crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slattery, Rebecca A; Ort, Donald R

    2015-06-01

    The conversion efficiency (ε(c)) of absorbed radiation into biomass (MJ of dry matter per MJ of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation) is a component of yield potential that has been estimated at less than half the theoretical maximum. Various strategies have been proposed to improve ε(c), but a statistical analysis to establish baseline ε(c) levels across different crop functional types is lacking. Data from 164 published ε(c) studies conducted in relatively unstressed growth conditions were used to determine the means, greatest contributors to variation, and genetic trends in ε(c )across important food and biofuel crop species. ε(c) was greatest in biofuel crops (0.049-0.066), followed by C4 food crops (0.046-0.049), C3 nonlegumes (0.036-0.041), and finally C3 legumes (0.028-0.035). Despite confining our analysis to relatively unstressed growth conditions, total incident solar radiation and average growing season temperature most often accounted for the largest portion of ε(c) variability. Genetic improvements in ε(c), when present, were less than 0.7% per year, revealing the unrealized potential of improving ε(c) as a promising contributing strategy to meet projected future agricultural demand. © 2015 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

  16. Future challenges for woody biomass projections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schadauer, K.; Barreiro, Susana; Schelhaas, M.; McRoberts, Ronald E.

    2017-01-01

    Many drivers affect woody biomass projections including forest available for wood supply, market behavior, forest ownership, distributions by age and yield classes, forest typologies resulting from different edaphic, climatic conditions, and last but not least, how these factors are incorporated

  17. Methane emission from ruminants and solid waste: A critical analysis of baseline and mitigation projections for climate and policy studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, E.

    2012-12-01

    Current and projected estimates of methane (CH4) emission from anthropogenic sources are numerous but largely unexamined or compared. Presented here is a critical appraisal of CH4 projections used in climate-chemistry and policy studies. We compare emissions for major CH4 sources from several groups, including our own new data and RCP projections developed for climate-chemistry models for the next IPCC Assessment Report (AR5). We focus on current and projected baseline and mitigation emissions from ruminant animals and solid waste that are both predicted to rise dramatically in coming decades, driven primarily by developing countries. For waste, drivers include increasing urban populations, higher per capita waste generation due to economic growth and increasing landfilling rates. Analysis of a new global data base detailing waste composition, collection and disposal indicates that IPCC-based methodologies and default data overestimate CH4 emission for the current period which cascades into substantial overestimates in future projections. CH4 emission from solid waste is estimated to be ~10-15 Tg CH4/yr currently rather than the ~35 Tg/yr often reported in the literature. Moreover, emissions from developing countries are unlikely to rise rapidly in coming decades because new management approaches, such as sanitary landfills, that would increase emissions are maladapted to infrastructures in these countries and therefore unlikely to be implemented. The low current emission associated with solid waste (~10 Tg), together with future modest growth, implies that mitigation of waste-related CH4 emission is a poor candidate for slowing global warming. In the case of ruminant animals (~90 Tg CH4/yr currently), the dominant assumption driving future trajectories of CH4 emission is a substantial increase in meat and dairy consumption in developing countries to be satisfied by growing animal populations. Unlike solid waste, current ruminant emissions among studies exhibit a

  18. Seismic studies for Fermilab future collider projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauh, J.; Shiltsev, V.

    1997-11-01

    Ground motion can cause significant beam emittance growth and orbit oscillations in large hadron colliders due to a vibration of numerous focusing magnets. Larger accelerator ring circumference leads to smaller revolution frequency and, e.g. for the Fermilab Very Large Hadron Collider(VLHC) 50-150 Hz vibrations are of particular interest as they are resonant with the beam betatron frequency. Seismic measurements at an existing large accelerator under operation can help to estimate the vibrations generated by the technical systems in future machines. Comparison of noisy and quiet microseismic conditions might be useful for proper choice of technical solutions for future colliders. This article presents results of wide-band seismic measurements at the Fermilab site, namely, in the tunnel of the Tevatron and on the surface nearby, and in two deep tunnels in the Illinois dolomite which is though to be a possible geological environment of the future accelerators

  19. The pediatric resident training on tobacco project: baseline findings from the Parent/Guardian Tobacco Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hymowitz, Norman; Schwab, Joseph; Haddock, Christopher keith; Pyle, Sara; Moore, Glenisha; Meshberg, Sarah

    2005-07-01

    Pediatricians have an important and unique role to play in the anti-tobacco arena. They may prevent relapse to smoking in women who stopped smoking during pregnancy, encourage parents to protect infants and young children from environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), prevent the onset of smoking in children and adolescents, and help patients and parents who smoke or use other forms of tobacco to quit. Unfortunately, few pediatricians intervene on tobacco use or ETS, and few pediatric residency training programs prepare residents to address tobacco. The Pediatric Residency Training on Tobacco Project is a 4-year randomized prospective study of the effectiveness of training pediatric residents to intervene on tobacco in patients and parents. In this paper, we present findings from the Baseline Parent/Guardian Tobacco Survey. Fifteen pediatric residency training programs participated in the Pediatric Residency Training on Tobacco Project, and they were assigned randomly to special and standard training conditions. The Baseline Parent/Guardian Tobacco Survey was administered to 1770 participants, a minimum of 100 from each site. The Parent/Guardian Survey was designed to describe the population under study. It addressed demographic information, family tobacco use, rules concerning smoking in the home and elsewhere, smoking behavior and beliefs, and parent/guardian reports of resident intervention on tobacco. Data analyses described the population served by Continuity Clinics associated with the pediatric residency training programs and determined the degree to which residents addressed tobacco in parents/guardians. The parents/guardians were primarily low-income African American and Hispanic females. Approximately 20% reported that they smoked cigarettes, and about 60% prohibited smoking in their home. Seventy percent of the parents reported that the resident asked about cigarette smoking, and about half indicated that the resident talked with them about ETS. However, only

  20. The Cernavoda project - past and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glodeanu, F.; Campureanu, T.; Chirica, T.; Popescu, D.

    1995-01-01

    The history of the Cernavoda nuclear power station in Romania is traced. It was conceived in 1977 as five unit CANDU-6 station and agreements were concluded on engineering, procurement and financial assistance with Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd (AECL) and Ansaldo of Italy. Delays in construction were created from the first, however, by efforts to manufacture as many components as possible in Romania, unfamiliarity with nuclear project management and the disadvantages of a highly centralised economy. Political changes since December 1989 have led to a new approach to project implementation. The Romanian Electricity Authority (RENEL), signed a new contract with AECL and Ansaldo in August 1991 to perform the project management for the completion of Cernavoda 1. The project has progressed very well and by the beginning of 1995 more than 90% of the plant systems were ready for commissioning and a full operating shift was in place. As a second phase of the nuclear power programme RENEL plans to complete Cernavoda 2, the construction of which was suspended at 30% completion. The three other units will be preserved in their present preliminary stage of construction up to 2000 while finance is sought for their completion. Nuclear power is seen as an environmentally clean means of meeting Romania's growing energy demand as the economy develops. (UK)

  1. Small-scale CDM projects in a competitive electricity industry: How good is a simplified baseline methodology?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrestha, Ram M.; Abeygunawardana, A.M.A.K.

    2007-01-01

    Setting baseline emissions is one of the principal tasks involved in awarding credits for greenhouse gas emission (GHG) mitigation projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). An emission baseline has to be project-specific in order to be accurate. However, project-specific baseline calculations are subject to high transaction costs, which disadvantage small-scale projects. For this reason, the CDM-Executive Board (CDM-EB) has approved simplified baseline methodologies for selected small-scale CDM project categories. While the simplified methods help reduce the transaction cost, they may also result in inaccuracies in the estimation of emission reductions from CDM projects. The purpose of this paper is to present a rigorous economic scheduling method for calculating the GHG emission reduction in a hypothetical competitive electricity industry due to the operation of a renewable energy-based power plant under CDM and compare the GHG emission reduction derived from the rigorous method with that obtained from the use of a simplified (i.e., standardized) method approved by the CDM-EB. A key finding of the paper is that depending upon the level of power demand, prices of electricity and input fuels, the simplified method can lead to either significant overestimation or substantial underestimation of emission reduction due to the operation of renewable energy-based power projects in a competitive electricity industry

  2. Collection of Country-level Baseline Surveys Implemented as Part of the Feed the Future Initiative

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — Led by USAID, Feed the Future is the U.S. Government?s global hunger and food security initiative, which establishes a foundation for lasting progress against global...

  3. Breckinridge Project, initial effort. Report VII, Volume II. Environmental baseline report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1982-01-01

    Ashland Synthetic Fuels, Inc. (ASFI) and Airco Energy Company, Inc. (AECI) have recently formed the Breckinridge Project and are currently conducting a process and economic feasibility study of a commercial scale facility to produce synthetic liquid fuels from coal. The coal conversion process to be used is the H-COAL process, which is in the pilot plant testing stage under the auspices of the US Department of Energy at the H-COAL Pilot Plant Project near Catlettsburg, Kentucky. The preliminary plans for the commercial plant are for a 18,140 metric ton/day (24,000 ton/day) nominal coal assumption capacity utilizing the abundant high sulfur Western Kentucky coals. The Western Kentucky area offers a source of the coal along with adequate water, power, labor, transportation and other factors critical to the successful siting of a plant. Various studies by federal and state governments, as well as private industry, have reached similar conclusions regarding the suitability of such plant sites in western Kentucky. Of the many individual sites evaluated, a site in Breckinridge County, Kentucky, approximately 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) west of the town of Stephensport, has been identified as the plant location. Actions have been taken to obtain options to insure that this site will be available when needed. This report contains an overview of the regional setting and results of the baseline environmental studies. These studies include collection of data on ambient air and water quality, sound, aquatic and terrestrial biology and geology. This report contains the following chapters; introduction, review of significant findings, ambient air quality monitoring, sound, aquatic ecology, vegetation, wildlife, geology, soils, surface water, and ground water.

  4. Baseline greenhouse gas emissions for the lower Churchill hydroelectric generation project in Labrador

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LeDrew, L.; Bastien, J.; Tremblay, A.

    2007-01-01

    Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro has proposed to develop the hydroelectric potential of the lower Churchill River by constructing generating facilities at Gull Island and Muskrat Falls. This paper presented the results of a study that was conducted to collect baseline data on greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes/emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) from the lower Churchill River, Smallwood reservoir, and natural lakes in the upper and lower Churchill regions. The purpose of the study was to compare GHG fluxes between the lower Churchill River, Smallwood reservoir and those of the nearby natural lakes and to compare GHG fluxes between the Smallwood reservoir and those of boreal reservoirs in northern Quebec. The paper provided a description of the site and the methodology for GHG flux measurement. The results and discussion focused on physical-chemical variables and GHG fluxes. The study results were to be used in the environmental assessment of the project. It was concluded that the lower Churchill River has higher CO 2 fluxes and lower CH 4 fluxes than the Smallwood reservoir and higher CO 2 fluxes than natural lakes in the region. There was no significant difference in N 2 O fluxes between the sampled waterbodies. Both CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from the lower Churchill River were comparable to other Canadian reservoirs. 12 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  5. Design Study for a Future Laguna-LBNO Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility at CERN

    CERN Document Server

    Alabau-Gonzalvo, J; Antoniou, F; Benedikt, M; Calviani, M; Efthymiopoulos, I; Ferrari, A; Garoby, R; Gerigk, F; Gilardoni, S; Goddard, B; Kosmicki, A; Lazaridis, C; Osborne, J; Papaphillippou, Y; Parfenova, A; Shaposhnikova, E; Steerenberg, R; Velten, P; Vincke, H

    2013-01-01

    The Large Apparatus studying Grand Unification and Neutrino Astrophysics (LAGUNA) study [1] investigated seven pre-selected underground sites in Europe (Finland, France, Italy, Poland, Romania, Spain and UK), capable of housing large volume detectors for terrestrial, accelerator generated and astrophysical neutrino research. The study was focused on geo-technical assessment of the sites, concluding that no show-stoppers exist for the construction of the required large underground caverns in the chosen sites. The LAGUNA-LBNO FP7/EC-funded design study extends the LAGUNA study in two key aspects: the detailed engineering of detector construction and operation, and the study of a long-baseline neutrino beam from CERN, and possibly other accelerator centres in Europe. Based on the findings of the LAGUNA study, the Pyh¨asalmi mine in Finland is chosen as prime site for the far detector location. The mine offers the deepest underground location in Europe (-1400 m) and a baseline of 2’300 km from CERN (Fig. 1). ...

  6. The Future of Project Management in Technical Communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kampf, Constance

    2006-01-01

    Project Management increasing shapes workplace communication, especially when technical commuicators participate in cross-disciplinary development teams. This paper looks at the future of project management in technical communication and argues for a communicative approach to project management...... for technical communication students. The Project Management course in the International Bachelor Program of Marketing and Management Communication at the Aarhus School of Business is described, and the implications fortechnical communication curricula are discussed....

  7. City Blueprints: Baseline Assessments of Sustainable Water Management in 11 Cities of the Future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leeuwen, C.J.

    2013-01-01

    The necessity of Urban Water Cycle Services (UWCS) adapting to future stresses calls for changes that take sustainability into account. Megatrends (e.g. population growth, water scarcity, pollution and climate change) pose urgent water challenges in cities. In a previous paper, a set of indicators,

  8. Nuclear data. Situation and future projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bioux, P.

    1995-01-01

    Nuclear power provides the major part of the electricity generation in France, using a system of highly developed Pressurized Water Reactors. Electricite de France, which is responsible for the exploitation of this system, is concerned to ensure the continuity of the expertise and facilities which provide relevant basic scientific information contributing to the efficient exploitation of the system and, in particular, the continuity of the means for providing relevant nuclear data. The nuclear data requirements for the exploitation of the existing nuclear power system have been largely met. However, there remain some needs, in particular in the field of reactor neutronics. Furthermore if one considers the future (for example, the next 10 years) it is not certain that will be possible to meet the needs which are expected to arise. The review, commissioned on behalf of EDF, about the current status and future expectations for work in this field, has shown certain tendencies in the international situation. In particular one notes a general reduction in the effort both in Western Europe and the United States. This negative tendency can perhaps be explained by the almost general reduction world-wide in new nuclear power developments. However, unresolved problems remain, such as the development of methods for reducing the stocks of plutonium and the incineration and storage of a nuclear waste of long duration. In addition improvements in the accuracy of nuclear data could result in non-negligible economic benefits in the exploitation of the existing nuclear facilities. For these very important reasons it is desirable to reverse the present trend. (author). 2 annexes

  9. Baseline Study Methodology for Future Phases of Research on Nuclear Power Plant Control Room Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Le Blanc, Katya Lee [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bower, Gordon Ross [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Hill, Rachael Ann [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Spielman, Zachary Alexander [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rice, Brandon Charles [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-07-01

    In order to provide a basis for industry adoption of advanced technologies, the Control Room Upgrades Benefits Research Project will investigate the benefits of including advanced technologies as part of control room modernization This report describes the background, methodology, and research plan for the first in a series of full-scale studies to test the effects of advanced technology in NPP control rooms. This study will test the effect of Advanced Overview Displays in the partner Utility’s control room simulator

  10. Future Visions of the Brahmaputra - Establishing Hydrologic Baseline and Water Resources Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, P. A.; Yang, Y. E.; Wi, S.; Brown, C. M.

    2013-12-01

    The Brahmaputra River Basin (China-India-Bhutan-Bangladesh) is on the verge of a transition from a largely free flowing and highly variable river to a basin of rapid investment and infrastructure development. This work demonstrates a knowledge platform for the basin that compiles available data, and develops hydrologic and water resources system models of the basin. A Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model of the Brahmaputra basin supplies hydrologic information of major tributaries to a water resources system model, which routes runoff generated via the VIC model through water infrastructure, and accounts for water withdrawals for agriculture, hydropower generation, municipal demand, return flows and others human activities. The system model also simulates agricultural production and the economic value of water in its various uses, including municipal, agricultural, and hydropower. Furthermore, the modeling framework incorporates plausible climate change scenarios based on the latest projections of changes to contributing glaciers (upstream), as well as changes to monsoon behavior (downstream). Water resources projects proposed in the Brahmaputra basin are evaluated based on their distribution of benefits and costs in the absence of well-defined water entitlements, and relative to a complex regional water-energy-food nexus. Results of this project will provide a basis for water sharing negotiation among the four countries and inform trans-national water-energy policy making.

  11. Baseline correlates of inconsistent and incorrect condom use among sexually active women in the contraceptive CHOICE Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Shirley L; Kebodeaux, Chelsea A; Secura, Gina M; Allsworth, Jenifer E; Madden, Tessa; Peipert, Jeffrey F

    2011-11-01

    : To provide protection against sexually transmitted infections and pregnancy, condoms must be used consistently and correctly. However, a significant proportion of couples in the United States fail to do so. Our objective was to determine the demographic and behavioral correlates of inconsistent and incorrect condom use among sexually active, condom-using women. : Analysis of baseline data from a prospective cohort of sexually active, condom-using women in the Contraceptive CHOICE Project (n = 2087) using self-reported demographic and behavioral characteristics. Poisson regression was used to determine the relative risk of inconsistent and incorrect condom use after adjusting for variables significant in the univariate analysis. : Inconsistent and incorrect condom use was reported by 41% (n = 847) and 36% (n = 757) of women, respectively. A greater number of unprotected acts was most strongly associated with reporting 10 or more sex acts in the past 30 days, younger age at first intercourse, less perceived partner willingness to use condoms, and lower condom use self-efficacy. Incorrect condom use was associated with reporting 10 or more sex acts in the past 30 days, greater perceived risk for future STIs, and inconsistent condom use. : Inconsistent and incorrect condom use is common among sexually active women. Targeted educational efforts and prevention strategies should be implemented among women at highest risk for STIs and unintended pregnancies to increase consistent and correct condom use.

  12. An assessment of baseline ecological risks at the Fernald Environmental Management Project, Fernald, Ohio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duke, C.S.; Meyers-Schone, L.; Glum, S.R.; Quaider, W.

    1991-01-01

    The Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP), formerly the Feed Materials Production Center (FMPC), is a Department of Energy (DOE) facility located near Cincinnati, Ohio, which produced pure uranium metals from the early 1950s until 1989. DOE is currently conducting a Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), in order to remediate environmental impacts at the site. DOE is also preparing an environmental impact statement under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) to evaluate environmental impacts of proposed remedial actions. Both CERCLA and NEPA require evaluation of ecological risks of baseline conditions and proposed remedial actions. A preliminary assessment of ecological risks examined the potential effects of FEMP contaminants in one operable unit (OU) at the site, OU5, Environmental Media. Radionuclides of potential concern in OU5 soils include uranium, cesium, radium, strontium, technetium, and thorium. Chemicals detected in terrestrial organisms include aluminum, arsenic, barium, cadmium, lead, mercury, vanadium, and zinc, as well as radionuclides. Chemicals of potential concern in surface water include a variety of metals as well as uranium and technetium. Radionuclides in OU5 do not appear to pose a hazard to terrestrial organisms. Estimated radiation doses to aquatic organisms continually exposed to the maximum uranium concentrations observed in on-property drainages ranged from 40 to 4000 rad per year. However, off-property radionuclide concentrations are very low, and it is unlikely that organisms in streams adjacent to the FEMP are exposed to toxic levels. Maximum arsenic levels in vegetation collected from the FEMP are consistent with values reported in the literature to be toxic to certain plants. However, signs of stress have not been observed in vegetation on or adjacent to the FEMP

  13. UAS Integration in the NAS Project and Future Autonomy Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Charles W.

    2014-01-01

    This presentation highlights NASA use of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and related technologies for civil purposes. This briefing will give more insight into the UAS projects progress and future goals.

  14. Future perspectives - proposal for Oxford Physiome Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oku, Yoshitaka

    2010-01-01

    The Physiome Project is an effort to understand living creatures using "analysis by synthesis" strategy, i.e., by reproducing their behaviors. In order to achieve its goal, sharing developed models between different computer languages and application programs to incorporate into integrated models is critical. To date, several XML-based markup languages has been developed for this purpose. However, source codes written with XML-based languages are very difficult to read and edit using text editors. An alternative way is to use an object-oriented meta-language, which can be translated to different computer languages and transplanted to different application programs. Object-oriented languages are suitable for describing structural organization by hierarchical classes and taking advantage of statistical properties to reduce the number of parameter while keeping the complexity of behaviors. Using object-oriented languages to describe each element and posting it to a public domain should be the next step to build up integrated models of the respiratory control system.

  15. Energy futures project : backgrounder for consultation sessions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhargava, A.

    2006-05-01

    The National Energy Board periodically publishes a long-term energy and demand report as part of an ongoing monitoring program. The next report is planned for release in 2007. This background document provided background information to ensure that consultation participants have a common understanding of key issues to be addressed during the cross-country consultations that have been planned before the release of the final version of the report. An outline of the proposed analytical approach was presented, as well as details of major assumptions and scenario storylines. Scenario themes included: economic, energy and environmental sustainability; a security-focused world shaped by war and civil strife; and strong global economic growth fueled by the rapid growth of the Chinese and Indian economies. A methodology overview was provided as well as a reference case. Issues related to energy supply included oil; natural gas liquids; natural gas; and electricity. Issues related to energy demand included the residential sector; the commercial sector; the industrial sector; and the transportation sector. Historical trends and forecasts were outlined using the macroeconomic variable of interest. Supply, demand, and supporting infrastructure across all energy forms within a North American and global context were considered. The impact of environmental management strategies were reviewed, as well as the role of the government in shaping policies. It was concluded that the purpose of the final report is to serve as a standard of references for parties interested in Canadian energy issues and trends as well as to inform decision makers of key risks and uncertainties facing the energy future.9 tabs., 1 fig

  16. Human fascioliasis in Argentina: retrospective overview, critical analysis and baseline for future research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuervo Pablo

    2011-06-01

    recent random surveys suggest human endemic situations. This analysis highlights that human fascioliasis may have been overlooked in the past and its real epidemiological situation in high risk rural, mainly altitudinal areas, may currently be underestimated. Results provide a valuable baseline on which to design appropriate multidisciplinary studies on humans, animals and lymnaeids to assess up to which level and in which areas, human fascioliasis may represent a health problem in Argentina.

  17. Human fascioliasis in Argentina: retrospective overview, critical analysis and baseline for future research

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    surveys suggest human endemic situations. This analysis highlights that human fascioliasis may have been overlooked in the past and its real epidemiological situation in high risk rural, mainly altitudinal areas, may currently be underestimated. Results provide a valuable baseline on which to design appropriate multidisciplinary studies on humans, animals and lymnaeids to assess up to which level and in which areas, human fascioliasis may represent a health problem in Argentina. PMID:21663691

  18. Human fascioliasis in Argentina: retrospective overview, critical analysis and baseline for future research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mera y Sierra, Roberto; Agramunt, Veronica H; Cuervo, Pablo; Mas-Coma, Santiago

    2011-06-11

    surveys suggest human endemic situations. This analysis highlights that human fascioliasis may have been overlooked in the past and its real epidemiological situation in high risk rural, mainly altitudinal areas, may currently be underestimated. Results provide a valuable baseline on which to design appropriate multidisciplinary studies on humans, animals and lymnaeids to assess up to which level and in which areas, human fascioliasis may represent a health problem in Argentina.

  19. Historical baselines and the future of shell calcification for a foundation species in a changing ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfister, Catherine A.; Roy, Kaustuv; Wootton, Timothy J.; McCoy, Sophie J.; Paine, Robert T.; Suchanek, Tom; Sanford, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Seawater pH and the availability of carbonate ions are decreasing due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, posing challenges for calcifying marine species. Marine mussels are of particular concern given their role as foundation species worldwide. Here, we document shell growth and calcification patterns in Mytilus californianus, the California mussel, over millennial and decadal scales. By comparing shell thickness across the largest modern shells, the largest mussels collected in the 1960s–1970s and shells from two Native American midden sites (∼1000–2420 years BP), we found that modern shells are thinner overall, thinner per age category and thinner per unit length. Thus, the largest individuals of this species are calcifying less now than in the past. Comparisons of shell thickness in smaller individuals over the past 10–40 years, however, do not show significant shell thinning. Given our sampling strategy, these results are unlikely to simply reflect within-site variability or preservation effects. Review of environmental and biotic drivers known to affect shell calcification suggests declining ocean pH as a likely explanation for the observed shell thinning. Further future decreases in shell thickness could have significant negative impacts on M. californianus survival and, in turn, negatively impact the species-rich complex that occupies mussel beds..

  20. Baseline health conditions in selected communities of northern Sierra Leone as revealed by the health impact assessment of a biofuel project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Mirko S; Knoblauch, Astrid M; Righetti, Aurélie A; Divall, Mark J; Koroma, Manso M; Fofanah, Ibrahim; Turay, Hamid; Hodges, Mary H; Utzinger, Jürg

    2014-09-01

    As biofuel projects may be associated with positive and negative effects on people's health and wellbeing, a health impact assessment was performed for the Addax Bioenergy Sierra Leone (ABSL) project. We present data from the baseline health survey, which will provide a point of departure for future monitoring and evaluation activities. In December 2010, a cross-sectional survey was carried out in eight potentially affected communities. A broad set of clinical and parasitological indicators were assessed using standardised, quality-controlled procedures, including anthropometry and prevalence of anaemia, Plasmodium falciparum and helminth infections. Complete datasets were obtained from 1221 individuals of 194 households and eight schools. Of children aged biofuel project impacts on community health in a rural setting in sub-Saharan Africa. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Environmental baseline study of the Los Medanos Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) project area of New Mexico: a progress report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolfe, H.G. (ed.)

    1977-09-01

    Exploratory drilling operations are being conducted for a Waste Isolation Pilot Program in southeastern New Mexico. Prior to the establishment of such a program, an environmental study was initiated to serve as a baseline for evaluation of the impact of future activities in the Los Medanos area. Much of this area has been influenced by human activities over a long period, and hence the baseline data only reflects the present, relatively disturbed condition of the environment. The study covers air resources, soils, and biotic resources. 23 tables, 6 figs. (DLC)

  2. A review of the possible future HEP Accelerator Projects

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2010-01-01

    The review, as already invited for presentation at the recent International Conference on High Energy Physics (ICHEP2010), covers all accelerator projects presently envisaged for HEP in the near and mid-term future. After a brief description of the major motivation, issues and necessary R&D of each project, it specially emphasizes the synergies between the different projects and their R&D issues, pointing out their complementarities and the efficient collaborative approach to address them. It finally summarizes the relative schedule of the various projects in their different phases, pointing out their global interdependence.

  3. Current status of RCA projects and strategies for future implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kyoung Pyo; Lee, Jeong Kong

    1998-12-01

    This report is intended to provide basic overall information about ways to promote technical cooperation within the framework of RCA to accelerate and coordinate cooperative activities in nuclear science and technology in Asia and the Pacific region through a thorough review on the current status and through suggesting future implementation strategies. The contents of this report include an overall introduction of RCA, guidelines and operating rules for RCA programmes, current status and future plans for RCA projects as well as the RCA vision for the next 25 years. By reviewing the current status and future implementation strategies for RCA projects, it will help to set up a national nuclear policy aimed at seeking maximum benefits from participation in RCA projects and to implement programmes for nuclear cooperation with Asian-Pacific countries. It is expected that as a lead country for the energy sector, which is one of five thematic areas for the year 1999 - 2000 cycle programmes, Korea will continue to make significant contributions towards the implementation of RCA programmes in the future. With this report, we plan to keep up with future developments as well as implement an effective cooperation with the countries in the region so that the opinion of Korea, one of the nuclear advanced countries in the region, can be fully reflected in the establishment of future plans for RCA programmes. (author). 3 refs., 5 tabs., 1 fig

  4. Project baselines and boundaries for project-based GHG emission reduction trading : a report to the Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Pilot Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lazarus, M.; Kartha, S.; Bernow, S. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States)

    2001-04-01

    One of the great challenges for policy makers in the twenty first century is turning out to be global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Recent setbacks in international negotiations do not preclude the imposition of national emission targets. One option being studied to increase the economic efficiency of meeting these targets is the creation of emissions trading markets. The exploration of credit trading in the field of greenhouse gas emissions is carried out under the banner of the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Trading (GERT) Pilot Project. One of its objectives is the development of the institutional framework required for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint Implementation (JI), and other international credit trading programs. To ensure credits are awarded to projects in a fair and transparent manner, technical, methodological, and administrative processes must be put in place. The determination of project baselines and project boundaries represent two of the main challenges confronting policy makers in awarding the credits. A review of baseline and boundary methods was initiated by GERT, and this report also contains a description of the main advantages and drawbacks of the various methods being considered. Lessons learned and opportunities are especially important for GERT to provide proper guidance to developers. The context and rationale for baselines and boundary setting are first explored in this report, as well as the issues of importance, and common criteria for the evaluation of alternative methods. The principal options for baseline determination, advantages and disadvantages, and applicability in various contexts were reviewed in section 2. The topic of avoided electricity use, and how to set consistent baselines for it are discussed in section 3. Project boundary is the topic of section 4, including leakage, upstream and downstream emissions, rebound and positive spillover effects, and means by which these issues can de

  5. Projected future runoff of the Breede River under climate change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Breede River is the largest river in the Western Cape Province of South Africa, and as such, is a key resource for a variety of activities within the region. It is this significance of the river that prompted a study into the impact of climate change on future runoff in the river and hence, the potential impacts a projected change ...

  6. Disease management projects and the Chronic Care Model in action: baseline qualitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, Bethany Hipple; Adams, Samantha A; Nieboer, Anna P; Bal, Roland

    2012-05-11

    Disease management programs, especially those based on the Chronic Care Model (CCM), are increasingly common in The Netherlands. While disease management programs have been well-researched quantitatively and economically, less qualitative research has been done. The overall aim of the study is to explore how disease management programs are implemented within primary care settings in The Netherlands; this paper focuses on the early development and implementation stages of five disease management programs in the primary care setting, based on interviews with project leadership teams. Eleven semi-structured interviews were conducted at the five selected sites with sixteen professionals interviewed; all project directors and managers were interviewed. The interviews focused on each project's chosen chronic illness (diabetes, eating disorders, COPD, multi-morbidity, CVRM) and project plan, barriers to development and implementation, the project leaders' action and reactions, as well as their roles and responsibilities, and disease management strategies. Analysis was inductive and interpretive, based on the content of the interviews. After analysis, the results of this research on disease management programs and the Chronic Care Model are viewed from a traveling technology framework. This analysis uncovered four themes that can be mapped to disease management and the Chronic Care Model: (1) changing the health care system, (2) patient-centered care, (3) technological systems and barriers, and (4) integrating projects into the larger system. Project leaders discussed the paths, both direct and indirect, for transforming the health care system to one that addresses chronic illness. Patient-centered care was highlighted as needed and a paradigm shift for many. Challenges with technological systems were pervasive. Project leaders managed the expenses of a traveling technology, including the social, financial, and administration involved. At the sites, project leaders served

  7. Disease management projects and the Chronic Care Model in action: baseline qualitative research

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Disease management programs, especially those based on the Chronic Care Model (CCM), are increasingly common in the Netherlands. While disease management programs have been well-researched quantitatively and economically, less qualitative research has been done. The overall aim of the study is to explore how disease management programs are implemented within primary care settings in the Netherlands; this paper focuses on the early development and implementation stages of five disease management programs in the primary care setting, based on interviews with project leadership teams. Methods Eleven semi-structured interviews were conducted at the five selected sites with sixteen professionals interviewed; all project directors and managers were interviewed. The interviews focused on each project’s chosen chronic illness (diabetes, eating disorders, COPD, multi-morbidity, CVRM) and project plan, barriers to development and implementation, the project leaders’ action and reactions, as well as their roles and responsibilities, and disease management strategies. Analysis was inductive and interpretive, based on the content of the interviews. After analysis, the results of this research on disease management programs and the Chronic Care Model are viewed from a traveling technology framework. Results This analysis uncovered four themes that can be mapped to disease management and the Chronic Care Model: (1) changing the health care system, (2) patient-centered care, (3) technological systems and barriers, and (4) integrating projects into the larger system. Project leaders discussed the paths, both direct and indirect, for transforming the health care system to one that addresses chronic illness. Patient-centered care was highlighted as needed and a paradigm shift for many. Challenges with technological systems were pervasive. Project leaders managed the expenses of a traveling technology, including the social, financial, and administration involved

  8. Life cycle baseline summary for ADS 6504IS Isotopes Facilities Deactivation Project at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-11-01

    The purpose of the Isotopes Facility Deactivation Project (IFDP) is to place former isotopes production facilities at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in a safe, stable, and environmentally sound condition; suitable for an extended period of minimum surveillance and maintenance (S ampersand M) and as quickly and economically as possible. This baseline plan establishes the official target schedule for completing the deactivation work and the associated budget required for deactivation and the necessary S ampersand M. Deactivation of the facilities 3026C, 3026D, 3028, 3029, 3038E, 3038M, and 3038AHF, the Center Circle buildings 3047, 3517, and 7025 will continue though Fiscal Year (FY) 1999. The focus of the project in the early years will be on the smaller buildings that require less deactivation and can bring an early return in reducing S ampersand M costs. This baseline plan covers the period from FY1995 throughout FY2000. Deactivation will continue in various facilities through FY1999. A final year of S ampersand M will conclude the project in FY2000. The estimated total cost of the project during this period is $51M

  9. Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limanond, Thirayoot; Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj; Srikaew, Artit

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: → Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. → The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. → The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

  10. The sustainable project management: A review and future possibilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.K. Chawla

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Sustainability in project operations such as financial, social and environmental sustainability is one of the most prominent issues of the present times to address. The increased focus on sus-tainable business operations has changed the viewpoint of researchers and corporate community towards the project management. Today sustainability in business operations along with sustain-ability of natural and environmental resources are of paramount significance which has further caused a huge impact on conception, planning, scheduling and execution of the project manage-ment activities. In this paper, a literature review between 1987 and 2018 on different issues af-fecting the sustainability in project management is carried out. The present study also identifies and discusses the future possibilities to apply computational procedures in order to estimate and optimize the sustainability issues in the management of projects, for example the computational evolutionary algorithms can be applied to formulate the multi-objective decision-making problem after considering critical factors of sustainability in the projects and then yielding optimized solu-tions for the formulated problem to achieve sustainability in the projects. A new integrated framework with the inclusion of feedback function for assessment of each decision and actions taken towards the sustainability of the projects is also identified and presented.

  11. Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Limanond, Thirayoot, E-mail: tlimanond@yahoo.co [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Srikaew, Artit [School of Electrical Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand)

    2011-05-15

    The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: {yields} Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. {yields} The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. {yields} The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

  12. Medial Temporal Lobe Contributions to Episodic Future Thinking: Scene Construction or Future Projection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palombo, D J; Hayes, S M; Peterson, K M; Keane, M M; Verfaellie, M

    2018-02-01

    Previous research has shown that the medial temporal lobes (MTL) are more strongly engaged when individuals think about the future than about the present, leading to the suggestion that future projection drives MTL engagement. However, future thinking tasks often involve scene processing, leaving open the alternative possibility that scene-construction demands, rather than future projection, are responsible for the MTL differences observed in prior work. This study explores this alternative account. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we directly contrasted MTL activity in 1) high scene-construction and low scene-construction imagination conditions matched in future thinking demands and 2) future-oriented and present-oriented imagination conditions matched in scene-construction demands. Consistent with the alternative account, the MTL was more active for the high versus low scene-construction condition. By contrast, MTL differences were not observed when comparing the future versus present conditions. Moreover, the magnitude of MTL activation was associated with the extent to which participants imagined a scene but was not associated with the extent to which participants thought about the future. These findings help disambiguate which component processes of imagination specifically involve the MTL. Published by Oxford University Press 2016.

  13. JPL Project Information Management: A Continuum Back to the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiz, Julie M.

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the practices and architecture that support information management at JPL. This practice has allowed concurrent use and reuse of information by primary and secondary users. The use of this practice is illustrated in the evolution of the Mars Rovers from the Mars Pathfinder to the development of the Mars Science Laboratory. The recognition of the importance of information management during all phases of a project life cycle has resulted in the design of an information system that includes metadata, has reduced the risk of information loss through the use of an in-process appraisal, shaping of project's appreciation for capturing and managing the information on one project for re-use by future projects as a natural outgrowth of the process. This process has also assisted in connection of geographically disbursed partners into a team through sharing information, common tools and collaboration.

  14. The challenge of defining risk-based metrics to improve food safety: inputs from the BASELINE project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manfreda, Gerardo; De Cesare, Alessandra

    2014-08-01

    In 2002, the Regulation (EC) 178 of the European Parliament and of the Council states that, in order to achieve the general objective of a high level of protection of human health and life, food law shall be based on risk analysis. However, the Commission Regulation No 2073/2005 on microbiological criteria for foodstuffs requires that food business operators ensure that foodstuffs comply with the relevant microbiological criteria. Such criteria define the acceptability of a product, a batch of foodstuffs or a process, based on the absence, presence or number of micro-organisms, and/or on the quantity of their toxins/metabolites, per unit(s) of mass, volume, area or batch. The same Regulation describes a food safety criterion as a mean to define the acceptability of a product or a batch of foodstuff applicable to products placed on the market; moreover, it states a process hygiene criterion as a mean indicating the acceptable functioning of the production process. Both food safety criteria and process hygiene criteria are not based on risk analysis. On the contrary, the metrics formulated by the Codex Alimentarius Commission in 2004, named Food Safety Objective (FSO) and Performance Objective (PO), are risk-based and fit the indications of Regulation 178/2002. The main aims of this review are to illustrate the key differences between microbiological criteria and the risk-based metrics defined by the Codex Alimentarius Commission and to explore the opportunity and also the possibility to implement future European Regulations including PO and FSO as supporting parameters to microbiological criteria. This review clarifies also the implications of defining an appropriate level of human protection, how to establish FSO and PO and how to implement them in practice linked to each other through quantitative risk assessment models. The contents of this review should clarify the context for application of the results collected during the EU funded project named BASELINE (www

  15. Analysis of CDM Projects' Portfolio in West African Economic and Monetary Union - Regional Baseline Assessment in Energy Sector. Case Study: Benin, Burkina Faso, Niger and Togo

    OpenAIRE

    Satoguina, Honorat

    2006-01-01

    This study analyses current energy projects in Benin, Burkina Faso, Niger and Togo. Based on the size of these projects, the study shows that currently, only small scale CDM projects can be developed in these countries in energy sectors. Moreover, baseline emissions factors are assessed for the different electricity grids. These baselines are very low in interconnected grids in cities, while they are relatively high for isolated and non-connected utilities in remote areas. Consequently, count...

  16. Radionuclides in marine macroalgae from Amchitka and Kiska Islands in the Aleutians: establishing a baseline for future biomonitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Kosson, David S.; Powers, Charles W.; Jewett, Stephen; Friedlander, Barry; Chenelot, Heloise; Volz, Conrad D.; Jeitner, Christian

    2006-01-01

    Levels of radionuclides in seven species of marine brown algae and Ulva were determined to establish a baseline for the Northern Pacific Ocean/Bering Sea (Aleutian Islands). There were differences in levels among algal species and locations (Amchitka Island vs Kiska Island). No values were above the minimum detectable activity (MDA) level for 137 Cs, 129 I, 6 Co, 152 Eu, 9 Sr, and 99 Tc. There were interspecific differences in some radionuclides: Ulva lactuca (=Ulva fenestrata) had the highest levels of 241 Am, Alaria fistulosa had the highest levels of 239,24 Pu, and Fucus distichus (=Fucus gardneri) had the highest levels of 234 U, 235 U, and 238 U. However, levels of all radionuclides were generally low and near the MDA for all isotopes. Although Amchitka Island had higher levels of 239,24 Pu than Kiska, the differences were very small and not significant biologically. The data indicate that algae can be useful bioindicators of actinides because they accumulate them at very low environmental levels, allowing them to provide early warning of any potential seepage of radionuclides into the marine environment. Further, the data indicate that some species (the intertidal Fucus) are better accumulators than others, and these should be used as bioindicators in future monitoring schemes

  17. Technology status in support of refined technical baseline for the Spent Nuclear Fuel project. Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puigh, R.J.; Toffer, H.; Heard, F.J.; Irvin, J.J.; Cooper, T.D.

    1995-10-20

    The Spent Nuclear Fuel Project (SNFP) has undertaken technology acquisition activities focused on supporting the technical basis for the removal of the N Reactor fuel from the K Basins to an interim storage facility. The purpose of these technology acquisition activities has been to identify technology issues impacting design or safety approval, to establish the strategy for obtaining the necessary information through either existing project activities, or the assignment of new work. A set of specific path options has been identified for each major action proposed for placing the N Reactor fuel into a ``stabilized`` form for interim storage as part of this refined technical basis. This report summarizes the status of technology information acquisition as it relates to key decisions impacting the selection of specific path options. The following specific categories were chosen to characterize and partition the technology information status: hydride issues and ignition, corrosion, hydrogen generation, drying and conditioning, thermal performance, criticality and materials accountability, canister/fuel particulate behavior, and MCO integrity. This report represents a preliminary assessment of the technology information supporting the SNFP. As our understanding of the N Reactor fuel performance develops the technology information supporting the SNFP will be updated and documented in later revisions to this report. Revision 1 represents the incorporation of peer review comments into the original document. The substantive evolution in our understanding of the technical status for the SNFP (except section 3) since July 1995 have not been incorporated into this revision.

  18. Technology status in support of refined technical baseline for the Spent Nuclear Fuel project. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puigh, R.J.; Toffer, H.; Heard, F.J.; Irvin, J.J.; Cooper, T.D.

    1995-01-01

    The Spent Nuclear Fuel Project (SNFP) has undertaken technology acquisition activities focused on supporting the technical basis for the removal of the N Reactor fuel from the K Basins to an interim storage facility. The purpose of these technology acquisition activities has been to identify technology issues impacting design or safety approval, to establish the strategy for obtaining the necessary information through either existing project activities, or the assignment of new work. A set of specific path options has been identified for each major action proposed for placing the N Reactor fuel into a ''stabilized'' form for interim storage as part of this refined technical basis. This report summarizes the status of technology information acquisition as it relates to key decisions impacting the selection of specific path options. The following specific categories were chosen to characterize and partition the technology information status: hydride issues and ignition, corrosion, hydrogen generation, drying and conditioning, thermal performance, criticality and materials accountability, canister/fuel particulate behavior, and MCO integrity. This report represents a preliminary assessment of the technology information supporting the SNFP. As our understanding of the N Reactor fuel performance develops the technology information supporting the SNFP will be updated and documented in later revisions to this report. Revision 1 represents the incorporation of peer review comments into the original document. The substantive evolution in our understanding of the technical status for the SNFP (except section 3) since July 1995 have not been incorporated into this revision

  19. Personality and Total Health Through Life Project Eye Substudy: Methodology and Baseline Retinal Features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijngaarden, Peter Van; Keel, Stuart; Hodgson, Lauren A B; Kumar, Dinesh K; Aliahmad, Behzad; Paim, Cistiane C; Kiely, Kim M; Cherbuin, Nicolas; Anstey, Kaarin J; Dirani, Mohamed

    2017-01-01

    To describe the methodology and present the retinal grading findings of an older sample of australians with well-defined indices of neurocognitive function in the Personality and total Health (PATH) through life project. A cross-sectional study. Three hundred twenty-six individuals from the PatH through life project were invited to participate. Participants completed a general questionnaire and 2-field, 45-degree nonmydriatic color digital retinal photography. Photographs were graded for retinal pathology according to established protocols. Two hundred fifty-four (77.9%) subjects, aged 72 to 78 years, agreed to participate in the eye substudy. gradable images of at least 1 eye were acquired in 211 of 254 subjects (83.1%). retinal photographic screening identified 1 or more signs of pathology in 130 of the 174 subjects (74.7%) with gradable images of both eyes. a total of 45 participants (17.7%) had self-reported diabetes and diabetic retinopathy was observed in 22 (48.9%) of these participants. This well-defined sample of older australians provides a unique opportunity to interrogate associations between retinal findings, including retinal vascular geometric parameters, and indices of neurocognitive function. Copyright 2017 Asia-Pacific Academy of Ophthalmology.

  20. Projections on the future of the natural uranium industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishido, Akio

    1995-01-01

    This discussion looks at the future of the uranium industry and considers what type of procurement policy should be adopted. Viewing the future as an extension of the present, it is possible that supplies of natural uranium will begin to run short around 2015. However, natural uranium will have more resources available than petroleum. If rising uranium prices reinvigorate exploration and lead to the discovery of new uranium deposits, future shortages will be unlikely. Nonetheless, with structural changes expected in the world economy, the nature of natural uranium transactions will no doubt change, thereby increasing the present element of uncertainty that much more. At the same time, the oligopolistic situation created by today's major producers will intensify. Based on these projections, the author has reassessed Japan's past procurement policy of government exploration/development support combined with private-sector uranium purchasing and finds this shared risk approach to be the best. (author)

  1. Self-defining future projections: exploring the identity function of thinking about the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Lardi, Claudia; Van der Linden, Martial

    2012-01-01

    The act of projecting oneself into meaningful future events may significantly contribute to a person's sense of self and identity. Yet if the role of memories, in particular self-defining memories (SDMs), in grounding the self is now well established, the identity function of anticipated future events has received comparatively little attention. This article introduces the construct of self-defining future projection (SDFP) to address this issue. Two studies show that people can readily identify significant future events that they frequently think about and that convey core information about who they are as individuals. Furthermore, a person's particular style of constructing SDMs is similarly manifested in SDFPs, suggesting that both types of events can be used to ground the self. Notably, people who display a stronger tendency to extract meaning from their past experiences also reflect more about the potential implications of imagined future events. The results further demonstrate that SDMs and SDFPs both give rise to a strong sense of personal continuity over time and are meaningfully related to self-esteem. Together these findings lend support to the idea that a person's sense of self and identity is in part nourished by the anticipation of significant future events.

  2. Interhemispheric Temperature Asymmetry in Historical Observations and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, A. R.; Hwang, Y.; Chiang, J. C.; Frierson, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    The surface temperature contrast between the northern and southern hemispheres -- the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry (ITA) -- is an emerging indicator of global climate change, especially relevant to the latitude of the tropical rain bands. We investigate the ITA over historical observations and in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations and future projections. We find that the uneven spatial impacts of greenhouse gas forcing cause amplified warming in the Arctic and northern landmasses, resulting in an increase of the ITA. However, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, which are disproportionately emitted in the northern hemisphere, masked these effects on the ITA until around 1980. The implementation of air pollution regulations in North America and Europe combined with increased global emissions of greenhouse gases have resulted in a significant positive ITA trend since 1980. The CMIP5 historical multimodel ensembles simulate this positive ITA trend, though not its full magnitude. We explore how natural variability may account for some of the differences between the simulated and observed ITA. Future simulations project a substantial increase of the ITA over the twenty-first century, well outside its twentieth-century variability. This is largely in response to continued greenhouse gas emissions, though anthropogenic aerosol emissions are also important in some scenarios. We discuss the potential implications of this northern warming in causing a northward shift in tropical rainfall.

  3. Budget and financing of mental health services: baseline information on 89 countries from WHO's project atlas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Shekhar; Sharan, Pratap; Saraceno, Benedetto

    2003-09-01

    Very little information is available on budget and financing of mental health services in the world. During year 2001, WHO collected information from all countries on resources available for mental health care as a part of Project Atlas. The present report seeks to describe the situation regarding federal budgets and financing of mental health care at the country level. It also examines the association between relative allocation of health budget to mental health and mental health policy, programme and resource indicators in 89 countries. The information was collected through a questionnaire (with an accompanying glossary) that was sent to the mental health focal point in the Ministry of Health of each country. Eighty nine countries provided information on their mental health budget as a proportion of health budget. In addition, information was obtained on policy, programme and mental health resource indicators (beds, personnel, services to special population and availability of drugs). The results showed that 32% of 191 countries did not have a specified budget for mental health. Of the 89 countries that supplied the requisite information 36% spent less than 1% of their total health budget on mental health. Many countries from Africa (79%) and the South East Asia (63%) were in this subgroup. Comparison with the Global Burden of Disease data showed a marked disparity between burden and resources. Lower income countries allocated a lesser proportion of their health budget on mental health in comparison to higher income countries. The primary method of financing mental health care in most countries was tax-based (60.2%), but many low-income countries depended on out-of-pocket expenditure (16.4%). The presence of mental health policies and programmes in general was not associated with the proportion of health budget allocated to mental health. Counties categorized based on the proportion of mental health budget to health budget, differed significantly in terms of

  4. Future projects of light kaonic atom X-ray spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatsuno, H.; Bazzi, M.; Beer, G.; Bellotti, G.; Berucci, C.; Bragadireanu, A.M.; Bosnar, D.; Cargnelli, M.; Curceanu, C.; Butt, A.D.; D’Uffizi, A.; Fiorini, C.; Ghio, F.; Guaraldo, C.; Hayano, R.S.; Iliescu, M.; Ishiwatari, T.; Iwasaki, M.; Sandri, P. Levi; Marton, J.; Okada, S.; Pietreanu, D.; Piscicchia, K.; Vidal, A. Romero; Sbardella, E.; Scordo, A.; Shi, H.; Sirghi, D.L.; Sirghi, F.; Doce, O. Vazquez; Widmann, E.; Zmeskal, J.

    2016-01-01

    X-ray spectroscopy of light kaonic atoms is a unique tool to provide precise information on the fundamental K̄N interaction at the low-energy limit and the in-medium nuclear interaction of K"−. The future experiments of kaonic deuterium strong-interaction shift and width (SIDDHARTA-2 and J-PARC E57) can extract the isospin dependent K"−N interaction at threshold. The high-resolution X-ray spectroscopy of kaonic helium with microcalorimeters (J-PARC E62) has the possibility to solve the long-standing potential-strength problem of the attractive K"−-nucleus interaction. Here, the recent experimental results and the future projects of X-ray spectroscopy of light kaonic atoms are presented.

  5. Projection displays and MEMS: timely convergence for a bright future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hornbeck, Larry J.

    1995-09-01

    Projection displays and microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) have evolved independently, occasionally crossing paths as early as the 1950s. But the commercially viable use of MEMS for projection displays has been illusive until the recent invention of Texas Instruments Digital Light Processing TM (DLP) technology. DLP technology is based on the Digital Micromirror DeviceTM (DMD) microchip, a MEMS technology that is a semiconductor digital light switch that precisely controls a light source for projection display and hardcopy applications. DLP technology provides a unique business opportunity because of the timely convergence of market needs and technology advances. The world is rapidly moving to an all- digital communications and entertainment infrastructure. In the near future, most of the technologies necessary for this infrastrucutre will be available at the right performance and price levels. This will make commercially viable an all-digital chain (capture, compression, transmission, reception decompression, hearing, and viewing). Unfortunately, the digital images received today must be translated into analog signals for viewing on today's televisions. Digital video is the final link in the all-digital infrastructure and DLP technoogy provides that link. DLP technology is an enabler for digital, high-resolution, color projection displays that have high contrast, are bright, seamless, and have the accuracy of color and grayscale that can be achieved only by digital control. This paper contains an introduction to DMD and DLP technology, including the historical context from which to view their developemnt. The architecture, projection operation, and fabrication are presented. Finally, the paper includes an update about current DMD business opportunities in projection displays and hardcopy.

  6. Aligning BIM with FM: streamlining the process for future projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colleen Kasprzak

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A study performed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST, USA in 2004 found that owners account for approximately $10.6 billion of the $15.8 billion total inadequate interoperability costs of U.S. capital facility projects in 2002. Because of these inefficiency costs, it becomes vital that information produced during the design and construction phases of a project be transferred into operations with maximum leverage to the end users. However, very few owners have defined these informational needs or developed an integration strategy into existing maintenance management systems. To increase operational efficiency, an organization must first develop an understanding of their operating systems, as well as identify how Building Information Modeling (BIM will add value to their daily tasks. The Pennsylvania State University (PSU has a unique opportunity to diversely implement BIM processes because not only does the University act as an owner, but also as designer and construction manager on the majority of projects. The struggle that PSU faces is one that is unique only to owners with a large, existing, multifaceted building inventory. This paper outlines the current initiative by the Office of Physical Plant (OPP, the asset manager at PSU, to develop an information exchange framework between BIM and FM applications to be used internally. As a result of this research, PSU has been able to define owner operational requirements for future projects and develop a flexible integration framework to support additional BIM tasks and information exchanges.

  7. Lifecycle baseline summary for ADS 6504IS isotopes facilities Deactivation Project at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-08-01

    The scope of this Activity Data Sheet (ADS) is to provide a detailed plan for the Isotopes Facilities Deactivation Project (IFDP) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This project places the former isotopes production facilities in a safe, stable, and environmentally sound condition suitable for an extended period of minimum surveillance and maintenance (S ampersand M) until the facilities are included in the Decontamination and Decommissioning (D ampersand D) Program. The facilities included within this deactivation project are Buildings 3026-C, 3026-D, 3028, 3029, 3038-AHF, 3038-E, 3038-M, 3047, 3517, 7025, and the Center Circle Facilities (Buildings 3030, 3031, 3032, 3033, 3033-A, 3034, and 3118). The scope of deactivation identified in this Baseline Report include surveillance and maintenance activities for each facility, engineering, contamination control and structural stabilization of each facility, radioluminescent (RL) light removal in Building 3026, re-roofing Buildings 3030, 3118, and 3031, Hot Cells Cleanup in Buildings 3047 and 3517, Yttrium (Y) Cell and Barricades Cleanup in Building 3038, Glove Boxes ampersand Hoods Removal in Buildings 3038 and 3047, and Inventory Transfer in Building 3517. For a detailed description of activities within this Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) element, see the Level 6 and Level 7 Element Definitions in Section 3.2 of this report

  8. Space Projects: Improvements Needed in Selecting Future Projects for Private Financing

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-01-01

    The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and NASA jointly selected seven projects for commercialization to reduce NASA's fiscal year 1990 budget request and to help achieve the goal of increasing private sector involvement in space. However, the efforts to privately finance these seven projects did not increase the commercial sector's involvement in space to the extent desired. The General Accounting Office (GAO) determined that the projects selected were not a fair test of the potential of increasing commercial investment in space at an acceptable cost to the government, primarily because the projects were not properly screened. That is, neither their suitability for commercialization nor the economic consequences of seeking private financing for them were adequately evaluated before selection. Evaluations and market tests done after selection showed that most of the projects were not viable candidates for private financing. GAO concluded that projects should not be removed from NASA's budget for commercial development until after careful screening has been done to determine whether adequate commercial demand exists, development risks are commercially acceptable and private financing is found or judged to be highly likely, and the cost effectiveness of such a decision is acceptable. Premature removal of projects from NASA's budget ultimately can cause project delays and increased costs when unsuccessful commercialization candidates must be returned to the budget. NASA also needs to ensure appropriate comparisons of government and private financing options for future commercialization projects.

  9. Projections of the current and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Scott A; Dahlui, Maznah; Mohamed, Rosmawati; Naning, Herlianna; Shabaruddin, Fatiha Hana; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba

    2015-01-01

    The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia has been estimated at 2.5% of the adult population. Our objective, satisfying one of the directives of the WHO Framework for Global Action on Viral Hepatitis, was to forecast the HCV disease burden in Malaysia using modelling methods. An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed. In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039. The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia.

  10. The possibility of previous epidemiological data to serve as baseline for future national oral health surveys--a study in Vietnam.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palenstein Helderman, W.H. van; Truin, G.J.; Can, N.; Khanh, N.D.

    2001-01-01

    AIM: The purpose of this paper is to review the most recent epidemiological data (1985-2000) on dental caries and periodontal diseases in Vietnam in an attempt to obtain a 'baseline' for future national oral health surveys. METHODS: Studies on periodontal diseases and caries were included when CPITN

  11. Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable

  12. Description of the global petroleum supply and demand outlook. Updated for the 1992 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreyfus, D.A.; Koklauner, A.B.

    1991-11-01

    The global oil trade is still in surplus production with downward pressure on prices just as in early 1990. The current oil price situation includes three major new factors which need to be taken into account: the outlook for the restoration of production capacity lost from the war; the impact of events in the Soviet Union and former Eastern block; and, the effect changed financial circumstances of the major Middle Eastern producers will have on pricing in the future. The net effect appears to be adequate or excess production capability for the next several years, volatile prices in the near term, with general downward pressures resulting in relative lower average prices. In the longer term there will be an increasing demand requirement for aggressive investment in new capacity resulting in relatively steep escalation in prices. The oil price track used for this projection is essentially the same as in the last two GRI Baseline Projections. The U.S. refiners acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil is expected to increase at an overall real average rate of 2.3 percent, reaching $36.84 per barrel in 1991 dollars and $83.30 in nominal dollars in the year 2010

  13. Promoting Energy-Balance Behaviors among Ethnically Diverse Adolescents: Overview and Baseline Findings of the Central Texas CATCH Middle School Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, Andrew E.; Kelder, Steven H.; Byrd-Williams, Courtney E.; Pasch, Keryn E.; Ranjit, Nalini; Delk, Joanne E.; Hoelscher, Deanna M.

    2013-01-01

    The Central Texas Coordinated Approach To Child Health (CATCH) Middle School Project is a 3.5-year school-based project aimed at promoting physical activity (PA), healthy eating, and obesity prevention among public middle school students in Texas. This article describes the CATCH intervention model and presents baseline findings from spring 2009.…

  14. Onshore wind energy potential over Iberia: present and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochinha, Carlos A.; Santos, João A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Onshore grid-connected wind power generation has been explored for more than three decades in the Iberian Peninsula. Further, increasing attention has been devoted to renewable energy sources in a climate change context. While advantages of wind energy are widely recognized, its distribution is not spatially homogeneous and not uniform throughout the year. Hence, understanding these spatial-temporal distributions is critical in power system planning. The present study aims at assessing the potential power output estimated from 10 m wind components simulated by a regional climate model (CCLM), driven by ERA40 reanalysis. Datasets are available on a grid with a high spatial resolution (approximately 20 km) and over a 40-yr period (1961-2000). Furthermore, several target sites, located in areas with high installed wind generation capacity, are selected for local-to-regional scale assessments. The results show that potential wind power is higher over northern Iberia, mostly in Cantabria and Galicia, while Andalucía and Cataluña record the lowest values. With respect to the intra-annual variability, summer is by far the season with the lowest potential energy outputs. Furthermore, the inter-annual variability reveals an overall downward long-term trend over the 40-yr period, particularly in the winter time series. A CCLM transient experiment, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario, is also discussed for a future period (2041-2070), after a model validation/calibration process (bias corrections). Significant changes in the wind power potential are projected for the future throughout Iberia, but their magnitude largely depends on the locations. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

  15. Fostering Radical Collaboration: The OCUL Collaborative Futures Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anika Ervin-Ward

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper was first given as a poster presentation at the Ontario Library Association Super Conference in 2016. Building on decades of successful cooperative work, the Ontario Council of University Libraries (OCUL Collaborative Futures project aims to select and implement a shared next-generation library services platform (LSP, to manage and preserve print resources in a sustainable system, and to effectively and efficiently use a shared system for the management of electronic and print resources. Phase One of this project was completed in Summer 2015. This is its story. Cet article a été présenté pour la première fois comme une présentation d’affiches à la Super Conference de l’Association des bibliothèques de l’Ontario en 2016. Basant sur des décennies de collaboration réussie, le projet Collaborative Futures du Conseil des bibliothèques universitaires de l’Ontario vise à sélectionner et à mettre en oeuvre une plate-forme des services de bibliothèque de dernière génération, à gérer et à préserver des ressources imprimées dans un système viable, et à utiliser efficacement un système partagé pour la gestion des ressources imprimées et numériques. La première phase de ce projet a été complétée pendant l’été 2015. Ceci est son histoire.

  16. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Bernardoni

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

  17. The Midwifery Legacies Project: history, progress, and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore-Davis, Tonia L; McGee, Karen B; Moore, Elaine M; Paine, Lisa L

    2015-01-01

    The Midwifery Legacies Project, formerly known as the OnGoing Group, was founded as an annual greeting card outreach aimed at maintaining contact with midwives as they approached retirement and beyond. In 2009, the importance of documenting personal and professional stories of midwives arose out of a bequest by a midwife who was relatively unknown outside of the community she served. The result has been the evolution of a robust collection of stories, which are known as the 20th Century Midwife Story Collection. Between 2009 and 2014, more than 120 US midwives aged 65 years or older were interviewed by a midwife, a student midwife, or a professional filmmaker. Collectively, these midwives' stories offer an intimate snapshot of the social, political, and cultural influences that have shaped US midwifery during the past half century. Individually, the stories honor and recognize midwives' contributions to the profession and the women they have served. This article details the development, progress, and future directions of the Midwifery Legacies Project. © 2015 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

  18. Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce: Current status, concerns and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morinville, Véronique; Drouin, Éric; Lévesque, Dominique; Espinosa, Victor M; Jacobson, Kevan

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: There is concern that the Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce is inadequate to meet health care demands of the pediatric population. The Canadian Association of Gastroenterology Pediatric Committee performed a survey to determine characteristics and future plans of the Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce and trainees. METHODS: Estimates of total and pediatric populations were obtained from the 2001 Census of Population, Statistics Canada (with estimates to July 1, 2005). Data on Canadian pediatric gastroenterologists, including clinical full-time equivalents, sex, work interests, opinions on workforce adequacy, retirement plans, fellowship training programs and future employment plans of fellows, were gathered through e-mail surveys and telephone correspondence in 2005 and 2006. RESULTS: Canada had an estimated population of 32,270,507 in 2005 (6,967,853 people aged zero to 17 years). The pediatric gastroenterology workforce was estimated at 9.2 specialists per million children. Women accounted for 50% of the workforce. Physician to pediatric population ratios varied, with Alberta demonstrating the highest and Saskatchewan the lowest ratios (1:69,404 versus 1:240,950, respectively). Between 1998 and 2005, Canadian pediatric gastroenterology fellowship programs trained 65 fellows (65% international trainees). Twenty-two fellows (34%) entered the Canadian workforce. CONCLUSIONS: The survey highlights the variable and overall low numbers of pediatric gastroenterologists across Canada, an increasingly female workforce, a greater percentage of part-time physicians and a small cohort of Canadian trainees. In conjunction with high projected retirement rates, greater demands on the work-force and desires to partake in nonclinical activities, there is concern for an increasing shortage of pediatric gastroenterologists in Canada in future years. PMID:17948136

  19. Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Cheryl A; Dunne, John P; Eakin, C Mark; Donner, Simon D

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming-induced bleaching remains largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias-corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the preindustrial period through 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a preindustrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method overpredicts the present-day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2-10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20-80% compared with the 'no adaptive response' prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high-frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high-frequency bleaching by ca. 10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and

  20. GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010. An occasional publication of Gas Research Institute on topics of current interest. December 1989

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; McCabe, N.C.

    1989-12-01

    The report summarizes the 1989 GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, which was adopted as a major input to the planning cycle leading to the development of GRI's 1991 R and D program. Summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, and the natural gas supply and price trends are presented. Appendixes include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1989 projection, and analysis of the potential for higher levels of gas demand, a description of industrial and commercial cogeneration energy supply and demand, a comparison of the 1989 projection with previous GRI projections, and a discussion of additional data used in developing the projection

  1. Multi-scale transport in the DIII-D ITER baseline scenario with direct electron heating and projection to ITER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grierson, B. A.; Staebler, G. M.; Solomon, W. M.; McKee, G. R.; Holland, C.; Austin, M.; Marinoni, A.; Schmitz, L.; Pinsker, R. I.; DIII-D Team

    2018-02-01

    Multi-scale fluctuations measured by turbulence diagnostics spanning long and short wavelength spatial scales impact energy confinement and the scale-lengths of plasma kinetic profiles in the DIII-D ITER baseline scenario with direct electron heating. Contrasting discharge phases with ECH + neutral beam injection (NBI) and NBI only at similar rotation reveal higher energy confinement and lower fluctuations when only NBI heating is used. Modeling of the core transport with TGYRO using the TGLF turbulent transport model and NEO neoclassical transport reproduces the experimental profile changes upon application of direct electron heating and indicates that multi-scale transport mechanisms are responsible for changes in the temperature and density profiles. Intermediate and high-k fluctuations appear responsible for the enhanced electron thermal flux, and intermediate-k electron modes produce an inward particle pinch that increases the inverse density scale length. Projection to ITER is performed with TGLF and indicates a density profile that has a finite scale length due to intermediate-k electron modes at low collisionality and increases the fusion gain. For a range of E × B shear, the dominant mechanism that increases fusion performance is suppression of outward low-k particle flux and increased density peaking.

  2. Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas-Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.

    2013-07-01

    Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrap-based method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of Hs up to ±10% were obtained, whereas they were around ±20% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of Hs are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the Hs magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

  3. The MY NASA DATA Project: Preparing Future Earth and Environmental Scientists, and Future Citizens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, L. H.; Phelps, C. S.; Phipps, M.; Holzer, M.; Daugherty, P.; Poling, E.; Vanderlaan, S.; Oots, P. C.; Moore, S. W.; Diones, D. D.

    2008-12-01

    global Earth System. These armchair explorers learn to unite datasets in a region to learn about places like and unlike where they live. In a world that's becoming smaller and smaller with the aid of technology, projects like MND prepare our students for their global future. A teacher located in an area of California strongly impacted by pollution and potential climate changes noted that this project makes available data that are very relevant to issues that will affect her students' lives. She points out that not all scientific information they currently see is in a form that is understandable to an educated citizen, and that the experience with MND will enable her students to have better than average skills not only for deciphering scientific maps and graphs; but also for creating maps and graphics that successfully convey information to others.

  4. Wind power projects in the CDM: Methodologies and tools for baselines, carbon financing and substainability analysis[CDM=Clean Development Mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ringius, L.; Grohnheit, P.E.; Nielsen, L.H.; Olivier, A.L.; Painuly, J.; Villavicencio, A.

    2002-12-01

    The report is intended to be a guidance document for project developers, investors, lenders, and CDM host countries involved in wind power projects in the CDM. The report explores in particular those issues that are important in CDM project assessment and development - that is, baseline development, carbon financing, and environmental sustainability. It does not deal in detail with those issues that are routinely covered in a standard wind power project assessment. The report tests, compares, and recommends methodologies for and approaches to baseline development. To present the application and implications of the various methodologies and approaches in a concrete context, Africa's largest wind farm-namely the 60 MW wind farm located in Zafarana, Egypt- is examined as a hypothetical CDM wind power project The report shows that for the present case example there is a difference of about 25% between the lowest (0.5496 tCO2/MWh) and the highest emission rate (0.6868 tCO{sub 2}/MWh) estimated in accordance with these three standardized approaches to baseline development according to the Marrakesh Accord. This difference in emission factors comes about partly as a result of including hydroelectric power in the baseline scenario. Hydroelectric resources constitute around 21% of the generation capacity in Egypt, and, if excluding hydropower, the difference between the lowest and the highest baseline is reduced to 18%. Furthermore, since the two variations of the 'historical' baseline option examined result in the highest and the lowest baselines, by disregarding this baseline option altogether the difference between the lowest and the highest is reduced to 16%. The ES3-model, which the Systems Analysis Department at Risoe National Laboratory has developed, makes it possible for this report to explore the project-specific approach to baseline development in some detail. Based on quite disaggregated data on the Egyptian electricity system, including the wind

  5. Projecting future solid waste management requirements on the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaver, S.R.; Stiles, D.L.; Holter, G.M.; Anderson, B.C.

    1990-09-01

    The problem of treating and disposing of hazardous transuranic (TRU), low-level radioactive, and mixed waste has become a major concern of the public and the government. At the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site in Washington state, the problem is compounded by the need to characterize, retrieve, and treat the solid waste that was generated and stored for retrieval during the past 20 years. This paper discusses the development and application of a Solid Waste Projection Model that uses forecast volumes and characteristics of existing and future solid waste to address the treatment, storage, and disposal requirements at Hanford. The model uses a data-driven, object-oriented approach to assess the storage and treatment throughout requirements for each operation for each of the distinct waste classes and the accompanying cost of the storage and treatment operations. By defining the elements of each alternative for the total waste management system, the same database can be used for numerous analyses performed at different levels of detail. This approach also helps a variety of users with widely varying information requirements to use the model and helps achieve the high degree of flexibility needed to cope with changing regulations and evolving treatment and disposal technologies. 2 figs

  6. Optimizing the financial structure and maximizing the future value of your generation project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arulampalam, G.; Letellier, M.

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses ways of optimizing the financial structure and maximizing the future value of an electric power generation project. It outlines the project structure, the sponsor objectives, project finance lending criteria, project timeline, risk mitigation, bank and institutional financing, sponsor's role, impact of financing choices on project value, and impact of penalties and derivative products

  7. Pointing the Way to the Future of Project Management: How the Past and Present Point Towards Project Management's Future

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ballister, Robert

    2003-01-01

    .... The lessons learned from those projects, coupled with a look at project management history in general, will be checked against a current project management theory to determine if the focus of today's...

  8. A modelling framework to project future climate change impacts on streamflow variability and extremes in the West River, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Fei

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a hydrological modelling framework was introduced to assess the climate change impacts on future river flow in the West River basin, China, especially on streamflow variability and extremes. The modelling framework includes a delta-change method with the quantile-mapping technique to construct future climate forcings on the basis of observed meteorological data and the downscaled climate model outputs. This method is able to retain the signals of extreme weather events, as projected by climate models, in the constructed future forcing scenarios. Fed with the historical and future forcing data, a large-scale hydrologic model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC was executed for streamflow simulations and projections at daily time scales. A bootstrapping resample approach was used as an indirect alternative to test the equality of means, standard deviations and the coefficients of variation for the baseline and future streamflow time series, and to assess the future changes in flood return levels. The West River basin case study confirms that the introduced modelling framework is an efficient effective tool to quantify streamflow variability and extremes in response to future climate change.

  9. Projecting future summer mortality due to ambient ozone concentration and temperature changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae Young; Lee, Soo Hyun; Hong, Sung-Chul; Kim, Ho

    2017-05-01

    Climate change is known to affect the human health both directly by increased heat stress and indirectly by altering environments, particularly by altering the rate of ambient ozone formation in the atmosphere. Thus, the risks of climate change may be underestimated if the effects of both future temperature and ambient ozone concentrations are not considered. This study presents a projection of future summer non-accidental mortality in seven major cities of South Korea during the 2020s (2016-2025) and 2050s (2046-2055) considering changes in temperature and ozone concentration, which were predicted by using the HadGEM3-RA model and Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System, respectively. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) were considered. The result shows that non-accidental summer mortality will increase by 0.5%, 0.0%, 0.4%, and 0.4% in the 2020s, 1.9%, 1.5%, 1.2%, and 4.4% in the 2050s due to temperature change compared to the baseline mortality during 2001-2010, under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the mortality will increase by 0.0%, 0.5%, 0.0%, and 0.5% in the 2020s, and 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.6% in the 2050s due to ozone concentration change. The projection result shows that the future summer morality in South Korea is increased due to changes in both temperature and ozone, and the magnitude of ozone-related increase is much smaller than that of temperature-related increase, especially in the 2050s.

  10. Software Support for the Classical, Contemporary and Future Project Management

    OpenAIRE

    Jakov Crnkovic; Peter Ross; Sanjay Desai

    2006-01-01

    The volume and complexity of Project Management (PM) raises many questions for managers. What exactly are we managing? People? Performance? Efficiency? Effectiveness? Cost? Time? At what levels do projects become challenging and worthy of significant management attention? Can some projects be left on auto-pilot? Must others be managed more aggressively? What metrics are useful in Project Management? How can they be integrated with normal performance metrics in the organization? How can metric...

  11. Documenter le futur: fantasmes, projections et decalages spatiotemporels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alice Forge

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Le concept de documentation future recèle un paradoxe : le mot documenter renvoie à des traces relevées dans un passé factuel, tandis que le futur ne peut, par définition, être qu’incertain, que l’objet de fantasmes, de projections. L’analyse suivante questionne ce paradoxe à travers l’analyse d’un motif cinématographique : un homme et une femme face à une tranche de séquoia, représentation symbolique du temps. Ce motif apparait dans trois oeuvres majeures du cinéma : Vertigo, d’Alfred Hitchcock, La Jetée de Chris Marker, et l’Armée des douze singes, de Terry Gilliam. La répétition de ce motif est mise en rapport avec l’ouvrage de Pierre Bayard, Le plagiat par anticipation, afin de l’envisager sous l’angle du paradoxe temporel, plutôt que sous le régime de la chronologie historique. Cette analyse prend pour point de départ une oeuvre intitulée Vozes Fantasmas, qui sur le principe de la documentation future propose d’écouter des murmures de spectateurs visitant une exposition qui n’a pas eu lieu. RESUMO O conceito de documentação do futuro evoca um paradoxo: o verbo documentar refere-se a traços ou rastros preservados de um passado factual, enquanto o futuro por definição é algo incerto, objeto de especulações, fantasias e projeções. Nossa reflexão questiona este paradoxo a partir da análise de uma cena cinematográfica: um homem e uma mulher em frente de um corte de sequoia, que é a representação simbólica do tempo. Esta cena aprece em três grandes obras do cinema: Vertigo (Um corpo que cai de Alfred Hitchcock, La Jetée de Chris Marker, e Os Doze Macacos de Terry Gilliam. A repetição desta cena é abordada em relação à obra de Pierre Bayard, Plágio por antecipação, a fim de considerá-la em termos de paradoxo temporal, e não como uma cronologia histórica. Esta análise tem como ponto de partida um trabalho artístico intitulado Vozes Fantasmas, que seguindo o princípio de

  12. Nutrition and Physical Activity Policies and Practices in Family Child Care Homes in Oregon: Baseline Findings from the Healthy Home Child Care Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunter, Katherine B.; Rice, Kelly R.; Trost, Stewart G.

    2012-01-01

    Baseline findings from the Healthy Home Child Care Project include data from Family Child Care Providers (FCCPs) in Oregon (n=53) who completed assessments of nutrition and physical activity policies and practices and BMI data for children in the care of FCCPs (n=205). Results show that a significant percentage of FCCPs failed to meet child care…

  13. An alternative projection model of future nuclear capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takei, Mitsuo

    1985-01-01

    There is generally a high degree of uncertainty involved in the projection of growth of any energy source, especially when the projection extends 50 years ahead. The 1982 OECD/NEA Report, 'Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle Prospect to 2025' notes the downturn in past projections of nuclear capacity over the past decade. It is obvious that rapidly changing conditions have affected overall worldwide energy and economic growth and the field of nuclear power has been subject to changes specific to itself. These have caused past projections to become obsolete and therefore it would seem necessary to implement a new projection method to improve the accuracy of present forecasting. (author)

  14. Software Support for the Classical, Contemporary and Future Project Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakov Crnkovic

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The volume and complexity of Project Management (PM raises many questions for managers. What exactly are we managing? People? Performance? Efficiency? Effectiveness? Cost? Time? At what levels do projects become challenging and worthy of significant management attention? Can some projects be left on auto-pilot? Must others be managed more aggressively? What metrics are useful in Project Management? How can they be integrated with normal performance metrics in the organization? How can metrics be built into assessment programs that work? How can projects be monitored, re-planned to stay within the original budget and schedule deadlines? How good is the PM software support? Do we really need PM software packages or it should be the integral part of the company's information system (IS? Where is the knowledge about company's previous projects and performance? Are we able to establish company or even industry wide standards for project management? Can we (or should we move from the PMBOK® guidelines and use other approaches? We discussing important questions in PM: software products, responsibilities for concurrently executing several projects (multi-projects with multi objectives and multiple deadlines, introducing a need for initiation, design, execution, and control using a virtual project management and application of the organizational project maturity model.

  15. Algorithm theoretical baseline for formaldehyde retrievals from S5P TROPOMI and from the QA4ECV project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. De Smedt

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available On board the Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P platform, the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI is a double-channel, nadir-viewing grating spectrometer measuring solar back-scattered earthshine radiances in the ultraviolet, visible, near-infrared, and shortwave infrared with global daily coverage. In the ultraviolet range, its spectral resolution and radiometric performance are equivalent to those of its predecessor OMI, but its horizontal resolution at true nadir is improved by an order of magnitude. This paper introduces the formaldehyde (HCHO tropospheric vertical column retrieval algorithm implemented in the S5P operational processor and comprehensively describes its various retrieval steps. Furthermore, algorithmic improvements developed in the framework of the EU FP7-project QA4ECV are described for future updates of the processor. Detailed error estimates are discussed in the light of Copernicus user requirements and needs for validation are highlighted. Finally, verification results based on the application of the algorithm to OMI measurements are presented, demonstrating the performances expected for TROPOMI.

  16. Baseline comparison report for Project W-058, Replacement of the cross-site transfer system. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendoza, D.P.

    1995-01-01

    This BCR compares the Project W-058 Functional Design Criteria with the Project W-058 Preliminary Design Requirements Document, and identifies the differences between the two documents in the mission definition, project requirements, system functions, and interfaces. Impacts these differences have on current project design are also discussed

  17. The human genome project and the future of medical practice ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Contrary to the scepticism that characterised the planning stages of the human genome project, the technology and sequence data resulting from the project are set to revolutionise medical practice for good. The expected benefits include: enhanced discovery of disease genes, which will lead to improved knowledge on the ...

  18. Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) and Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE): Conceptual Design Report. Volume 1: The LBNF and DUNE Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acciarri, R. [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States); et al.

    2016-01-22

    This document presents the Conceptual Design Report (CDR) put forward by an international neutrino community to pursue the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment at the Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF/DUNE), a groundbreaking science experiment for long-baseline neutrino oscillation studies and for neutrino astrophysics and nucleon decay searches. The DUNE far detector will be a very large modular liquid argon time-projection chamber (LArTPC) located deep underground, coupled to the LBNF multi-megawatt wide-band neutrino beam. DUNE will also have a high-resolution and high-precision near detector.

  19. Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) and Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) Conceptual Design Report Volume 1: The LBNF and DUNE Projects

    CERN Document Server

    Acciarri, R.; Adamowski, M.; Adams, C.; Adamson, P.; Adhikari, S.; Ahmad, Z.; Albright, C.H.; Alion, T.; Amador, E.; Anderson, J.; Anderson, K.; Andreopoulos, C.; Andrews, M.; Andrews, R.; Anghel, I.; Anjos, J. d.; Ankowski, A.; Antonello, M.; Aranda Fernandez, A.; Ariga, A.; Ariga, T.; Aristizabal, D.; Arrieta-Diaz, E.; Aryal, K.; Asaadi, J.; Asner, D.; Athar, M.S.; Auger, M.; Aurisano, A.; Aushev, V.; Autiero, D.; Avila, M.; Back, J.J.; Bai, X.; Baibussinov, B.; Baird, M.; Balantekin, B.; Baller, B.; Ballett, P.; Bambah, B.; Bansal, M.; Bansal, S.; Barker, G.J.; Barletta, W.A.; Barr, G.; Barros, N.; Bartosz, B.; Bartoszek, L.; Bashyal, A.; Bass, M.; Bay, F.; Beacom, J.; Behera, B.R.; Bellettini, G.; Bellini, V.; Beltramello, O.; Benekos, N.; Benetti, P.A.; Bercellie, A.; Bergevin, M.; Berman, E.; Berns, H.; Bernstein, R.; Bertolucci, S.; Bhandari, B.; Bhatnagar, V.; Bhuyan, B.; Bian, J.; Biery, K.; Bishai, M.; Blackburn, T.; Blake, A.; Blaszczyk, F. d. M.; Blaufuss, E.; Bleakley, B.; Blucher, E.; Bocean, V.; Boffelli, F.; Boissevain, J.; Bolognesi, S.; Bolton, T.; Bonesini, M.; Boone, T.; Booth, C.; Bordoni, S.; Borysova, M.; Bourguille, B.; Boyd, S.B.; Brailsford, D.; Brandt, A.; Bremer, J.; Brice, S.; Bromberg, C.; Brooijmans, G.; Brown, G.; Brown, R.; Brunetti, G.; Bu, X.; Buchanan, N.; Budd, H.; Bugg, B.; Calafiura, P.; Calligarich, E.; Calvo, E.; Camilleri, L.; Campanelli, M.; Cantini, C.; Carls, B.; Carr, R.; Cascella, M.; Castromonte, C.; Mur, E.Catano; Cavanna, F.; Centro, S.; Cervera Villanueva, A.; Chalifour, M.; Chandratre, V.B.; Chatterjee, A.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chaussard, L.; Chembra, S.; Chen, H.; Chen, K.; Chen, M.; Cherdack, D.; Chi, C.; Childress, S.; Choubey, S.; Choudhary, B.C.; Christodoulou, G.; Christofferson, C.; Church, E.; Cianci, D.; Cline, D.; Coan, T.; Cocco, A.; Coelho, J.; Cole, P.; Collin, G.; Conrad, J.M.; Convery, M.; Corey, R.; Corwin, L.; Cranshaw, J.; Crivelli, P.; Cronin-Hennessy, D.; Curioni, A.; Cushing, J.; Adams, D.L.; Dale, D.; Das, S.R.; Davenne, T.; Davies, G.S.; Davies, J.; Dawson, J.; De, K.; de Gouvea, A.; de Jong, J.K.; de Jong, P.; De Lurgio, P.; Decowski, M.; Delbart, A.; Densham, C.; Dharmapalan, R.; Dhingra, N.; Di Luise, S.; Diamantopoulou, M.; Diaz, J.S.; Diaz Bautista, G.; Diwan, M.; Djurcic, Z.; Dolph, J.; Drake, G.; Duchesneau, D.; Duvernois, M.; Duyang, H.; Dwyer, D.A.; Dye, S.; Dytman, S.; Eberly, B.; Edgecock, R.; Edmunds, D.; Elliott, S.; Elnimr, M.; Emery, S.; Endress, E.; Eno, S.; Ereditato, A.; Escobar, C.O.; Evans, J.; Falcone, A.; Falk, L.; Farbin, A.; Farnese, C.; Farzan, Y.; Fava, A.; Favilli, L.; Felde, J.; Felix, J.; Fernandes, S.; Fields, L.; Finch, A.; Fitton, M.; Fleming, B.; Forest, T.; Fowler, J.; Fox, W.; Fried, J.; Friedland, A.; Fuess, S.; Fujikawa, B.; Gago, A.; Gallagher, H.; Galymov, S.; Gamble, T.; Gandhi, R.; Garcia-Gamez, D.; Gardiner, S.; Garvey, G.; Gehman, V.M.; Gendotti, A.; Geronimo, G. d.; Ghag, C.; Ghoshal, P.; Gibin, D.; Gil-Botella, I.; Gill, R.; Girardelli, D.; Giri, A.; Glavin, S.; Goeldi, D.; Golapinni, S.; Gold, M.; Gomes, R.A.; Gomez Cadenas, J.J.; Goodman, M.C.; Gorbunov, D.; Goswami, S.; Graf, N.; Graf, N.; Graham, M.; Gramelini, E.; Gran, R.; Grant, C.; Grant, N.; Greco, V.; Greenlee, H.; Greenler, L.; Greenley, C.; Groh, M.; Grullon, S.; Grundy, T.; Grzelak, K.; Guardincerri, E.; Guarino, V.; Guarnaccia, E.; Guedes, G.P.; Guenette, R.; Guglielmi, A.; Habig, A.T.; Hackenburg, R.W.; Hackenburg, A.; Hadavand, H.; Haenni, R.; Hahn, A.; Haigh, M.D.; Haines, T.; Hamernik, T.; Handler, T.; Hans, S.; Harris, D.; Hartnell, J.; Hasegawa, T.; Hatcher, R.; Hatzikoutelis, A.; Hays, S.; Hazen, E.; Headley, M.; Heavey, A.; Heeger, K.; Heise, J.; Hennessy, K.; Hewes, J.; Higuera, A.; Hill, T.; Himmel, A.; Hogan, M.; Holanda, P.; Holin, A.; Honey, W.; Horikawa, S.; Horton-Smith, G.; Howard, B.; Howell, J.; Hurh, P.; Huston, J.; Hylen, J.; Imlay, R.; Insler, J.; Introzzi, G.; Ioanisyan, D.; Ioannisian, A.; Iwamoto, K.; Izmaylov, A.; Jackson, C.; Jaffe, D.E.; James, C.; James, E.; Jediny, F.; Jen, C.; Jhingan, A.; Jimenez, S.; Jo, J.H.; Johnson, M.; Johnson, R.; Johnstone, J.; Jones, B.J.; Joshi, J.; Jostlein, H.; Jung, C.K.; Junk, T.; Kaboth, A.; Kadel, R.; Kafka, T.; Kalousis, L.; Kamyshkov, Y.; Karagiorgi, G.; Karasavvas, D.; Karyotakis, Y.; Kaur, A.; Kaur, P.; Kayser, B.; Kazaryan, N.; Kearns, E.; Keener, P.; Kemboi, S.; Kemp, E.; Kettell, S.H.; Khabibullin, M.; Khandaker, M.; Khotjantsev, A.; Kirby, B.; Kirby, M.; Klein, J.; Kobilarcik, T.; Kohn, S.; Koizumi, G.; Kopylov, A.; Kordosky, M.; Kormos, L.; Kose, U.; Kostelecky, A.; Kramer, M.; Kreslo, I.; Kriske, R.; Kropp, W.; Kudenko, Y.; Kudryavtsev, V.A.; Kulagin, S.; Kumar, A.; Kumar, G.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kutter, T.; Laminack, A.; Lande, K.; Lane, C.; Lang, K.; Lanni, F.; Learned, J.; Lebrun, P.; Lee, D.; Lee, H.; Lee, K.; Lee, W.M.; Leigui de Oliveira, M.A.; Li, Q.; Li, S.; Li, S.; Li, X.; Li, Y.; Li, Z.; Libo, J.; Lin, C.S.; Lin, S.; Ling, J.; Link, J.; Liptak, Z.; Lissauer, D.; Littenberg, L.; Littlejohn, B.; Liu, Q.; Liu, T.; Lockwitz, S.; Lockyer, N.; Loew, T.; Lokajicek, M.; Long, K.; Lopes, M.D.L.; Lopez, J.P.; Losecco, J.; Louis, W.; Lowery, J.; Luethi, M.; Luk, K.; Lundberg, B.; Lundin, T.; Luo, X.; Lux, T.; Lykken, J.; Machado, A.A.; Macier, J.R.; Magill, S.; Mahler, G.; Mahn, K.; Malek, M.; Malhotra, S.; Malon, D.; Mammoliti, F.; Mancina, S.; Mandal, S.K.; Mandodi, S.; Manly, S.L.; Mann, A.; Marchionni, A.; Marciano, W.; Mariani, C.; Maricic, J.; Marino, A.; Marshak, M.; Marshall, C.; Marshall, J.; Marteau, J.; Martin-Albo, J.; Martinez, D.; Matsuno, S.; Matthews, J.; Mauger, C.; Mavrokoridis, K.; Mayilyan, D.; Mazzucato, E.; McCauley, N.; McCluskey, E.; McConkey, N.; McDonald, K.; McFarland, K.S.; McGowan, A.M.; McGrew, C.; McKeown, R.; McNulty, D.; McTaggart, R.; Mefodiev, A.; Mehrian, M.; Mehta, P.; Mei, D.; Mena, O.; Menary, S.; Mendez, H.; Menegolli, A.; Meng, G.; Meng, Y.; Mertins, D.; Merritt, H.; Messier, M.; Metcalf, W.; Mewes, M.; Meyer, H.; Miao, T.; Milincic, R.; Miller, W.; Mills, G.; Mineev, O.; Miranda, O.; Mishra, C.S.; Mishra, S.R.; Mitrica, B.; Mladenov, D.; Mocioiu, I.; Mohanta, R.; Mokhov, N.; Montanari, C.; Montanari, D.; Moon, J.; Mooney, M.; Moore, C.; Morfin, J.; Morgan, B.; Morris, C.; Morse, W.; Moss, Z.; Mossey, C.; Moura, C.A.; Mousseau, J.; Mualem, L.; Muether, M.; Mufson, S.; Murphy, S.; Musser, J.; Musser, R.; Nakajima, Y.; Naples, D.; Napolitano, J.; Navarro, J.; Navas, D.; Nelson, J.; Nessi, M.; Newcomer, M.; Ng, Y.; Nichol, R.; Nicholls, T.C.; Nikolics, K.; Niner, E.; Norris, B.; Noto, F.; Novakova, P.; Novella, P.; Nowak, J.; Nunes, M.S.; O'Keeffe, H.; Oldeman, R.; Oliveira, R.; Olson, T.; Onishchuk, Y.; Osta, J.; Ovsjannikova, T.; Page, B.; Pakvasa, S.; Pal, S.; Palamara, O.; Palazzo, A.; Paley, J.; Palomares, C.; Pantic, E.; Paolone, V.; Papadimitriou, V.; Park, J.; Parke, S.; Parsa, Z.; Pascoli, S.; Patterson, R.; Patton, S.; Patzak, T.; Paulos, B.; Paulucci, L.; Pavlovic, Z.; Pawloski, G.; Peeters, S.; Pennacchio, E.; Perch, A.; Perdue, G.N.; Periale, L.; Perkin, J.D.; Pessard, H.; Petrillo, G.; Petti, R.; Petukhov, A.; Pietropaolo, F.; Plunkett, R.; Pordes, S.; Potekhin, M.; Potenza, R.; Potukuchi, B.; Poudyal, N.; Prokofiev, O.; Pruthi, N.; Przewlocki, P.; Pushka, D.; Qian, X.; Raaf, J.L.; Raboanary, R.; Radeka, V.; Radovic, A.; Raffelt, G.; Rakhno, I.; Rakotondramanana, H.T.; Rakotondravohitra, L.; Ramachers, Y.A.; Rameika, R.; Ramsey, J.; Rappoldi, A.; Raselli, G.; Ratoff, P.; Rebel, B.; Regenfus, C.; Reichenbacher, J.; Reitzner, D.; Remoto, A.; Renshaw, A.; Rescia, S.; Richardson, M.; Rielage, K.; Riesselmann, K.; Robinson, M.; Rochester, L.; Rodrigues, O.B.; Rodrigues, P.; Roe, B.; Rosen, M.; Roser, R.M.; Ross-Lonergan, M.; Rossella, M.; Rubbia, A.; Rubbia, C.; Rucinski, R.; von Rohr, C.Rudolph; Russell, B.; Ruterbories, D.; Saakyan, R.; Sahu, N.; Sala, P.; Samios, N.; Sanchez, F.; Sanchez, M.; Sands, B.; Santana, S.; Santorelli, R.; Santucci, G.; Saoulidou, N.; Scaramelli, A.; Schellman, H.; Schlabach, P.; Schmitt, R.; Schmitz, D.; Schneps, J.; Scholberg, K.; Schukraft, A.; Schwehr, J.; Segreto, E.; Seibert, S.; Sepulveda-Quiroz, J.A.; Sergiampietri, F.; Sexton-Kennedy, L.; Sgalaberna, D.; Shaevitz, M.; Shahi, J.; Shahsavarani, S.; Shanahan, P.; Shankar, S.U.; Sharma, R.; Sharma, R.K.; Shaw, T.; Shrock, R.; Shyrma, I.; Simos, N.; Sinev, G.; Singh, I.; Singh, J.; Singh, J.; Singh, V.; Sinnis, G.; Sippach, W.; Smargianaki, D.; Smy, M.; Snider, E.; Snopok, P.; Sobczyk, J.; Sobel, H.; Soderberg, M.; Solomey, N.; Sondheim, W.; Sorel, M.; Sousa, A.; Soustruznik, K.; Spitz, J.; Spooner, N.J.; Stancari, M.; Stancu, I.; Stefan, D.; Steiner, H.M.; Stewart, J.; Stock, J.; Stoica, S.; Stone, J.; Strait, J.; Strait, M.; Strauss, T.; Striganov, S.; Sulej, R.; Sullivan, G.; Sun, Y.; Suter, L.; Sutera, C.M.; Svoboda, R.; Szczerbinska, B.; Szelc, A.; Soldner-Rembold, S.; Talaga, R.; Tamsett, M.; Tariq, S.; Tatar, E.; Tayloe, R.; Taylor, C.; Taylor, D.; Terao, K.; Thiesse, M.; Thomas, J.; Thompson, L.F.; Thomson, M.; Thorn, C.; Thorpe, M.; Tian, X.; Tiedt, D.; Timm, S.C.; Tonazzo, A.; Tope, T.; Topkar, A.; Torres, F.R.; Torti, M.; Tortola, M.; Tortorici, F.; Toups, M.; Touramanis, C.; Tripathi, M.; Tropin, I.; Tsai, Y.; Tsang, K.V.; Tsenov, R.; Tufanli, S.; Tull, C.; Turner, J.; Tzanov, M.; Tziaferi, E.; Uchida, Y.; Urheim, J.; Usher, T.; Vagins, M.; Vahle, P.; Valdiviesso, G.A.; Valerio, L.; Vallari, Z.; Valle, J.; Van Berg, R.; Van de Water, R.; Van Gemmeren, P.; Varanini, F.; Varner, G.; Vasseur, G.; Vaziri, K.; Velev, G.; Ventura, S.; Verdugo, A.; Viant, T.; Vieira, T.V.; Vignoli, C.; Vilela, C.; Viren, B.; Vrba, T.; Wachala, T.; Wahl, D.; Wallbank, M.; Walsh, N.; Wang, B.; Wang, H.; Wang, L.; Wang, T.; Warburton, T.K.; Warner, D.; Wascko, M.; Waters, D.; Watson, T.B.; Weber, A.; Weber, M.; Wei, W.; Weinstein, A.; Wells, D.; Wenman, D.; Wetstein, M.; White, A.; Whitehead, L.; Whittington, D.; Wilking, M.; Willhite, J.; Wilson, P.; Wilson, R.J.; Winslow, L.; Wittich, P.; Wojcicki, S.; Wong, H.H.; Wood, K.; Worcester, E.; Worcester, M.; Wu, S.; Xin, T.; Yanagisawa, C.; Yang, S.; Yang, T.; Yarritu, K.; Ye, J.; Yeh, M.; Yershov, N.; Yonehara, K.; Yu, B.; Yu, J.; Zalesak, J.; Zalewska, A.; Zamorano, B.; Zang, L.; Zani, A.; Zani, A.; Zavala, G.; Zeller, G.; Zhang, C.; Zhang, C.; Zimmerman, E.D.; Zito, M.; Zwaska, R.

    2016-01-01

    This document presents the Conceptual Design Report (CDR) put forward by an international neutrino community to pursue the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment at the Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF/DUNE), a groundbreaking science experiment for long-baseline neutrino oscillation studies and for neutrino astrophysics and nucleon decay searches. The DUNE far detector will be a very large modular liquid argon time-projection chamber (LArTPC) located deep underground, coupled to the LBNF multi-megawatt wide-band neutrino beam. DUNE will also have a high-resolution and high-precision near detector.

  20. The Baselines Project: Establishing Reference Environmental Conditions for Marine Habitats in the Gulf of Mexico using Forecast Models and Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolliff, J. K.; Gould, R. W.; deRada, S.; Teague, W. J.; Wijesekera, H. W.

    2012-12-01

    We provide an overview of the NASA-funded project, "High-Resolution Subsurface Physical and Optical Property Fields in the Gulf of Mexico: Establishing Baselines and Assessment Tools for Resource Managers." Data assimilative models, analysis fields, and multiple satellite data streams were used to construct temperature and photon flux climatologies for the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary (FGBNMS) and similar habitats in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico where geologic features provide a platform for unique coral reef ecosystems. Comparison metrics of the products to in situ data collected during complimentary projects are also examined. Similarly, high-resolution satellite-data streams and advanced processing techniques were used to establish baseline suspended sediment load and turbidity conditions in selected northern Gulf of Mexico estuaries. The results demonstrate the feasibility of blending models and data into accessible web-based analysis products for resource managers, policy makers, and the public.

  1. The human Genome project and the future of oncology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, Francis S.

    1996-01-01

    The Human Genome Project is an ambitious 15-year effort to devise maps and sequence of the 3-billion base pair human genome, including all 100,000 genes. The project is running ahead of schedule and under budget. Already the effects on progress in disease gene discovery have been dramatic, especially for cancer. The most appropriate uses of susceptibility testing for breast, ovarian, and colon cancer are being investigated in research protocols, and the need to prevent genetic discrimination in employment and health insurance is becoming more urgent. In the longer term, these gene discoveries are likely to usher in a new era of therapeutic molecular medicine

  2. ORGANIZATION OF FUTURE ENGINEERS' PROJECT-BASED LEARNING WHEN STUDYING THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halyna V. Lutsenko

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The peculiarities of modern world experience of implementation of project-based learning in engineering education have been considered. The potential role and place of projects in learning activity have been analyzed. The methodology of organization of project-based activity of engineering students when studying the project management methodology and computer systems of project management has been proposed. The requirements to documentation and actual results of students' projects have been described in detail. The requirements to computer-aided systems of project management developed by using Microsoft Project in the scope of diary scheduling and resources planning have been formulated.

  3. The Philippine nuclear power project, its past, present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovellanos, J.U.

    1993-01-01

    The article discussed the historical background of the nuclear power plants; how it operates; the government opinion on the operation of the nuclear power plant; the application of power resources to industry; the implementation of PNPP-1 particularly the economic aspects of energy in the near future. (IMA)

  4. First results and future projects for Petula ECE measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    How, J.; Melin, G.; Girard, A.

    1985-01-01

    Electron cyclotron emission (ECE) diagnostics are being installed on the Petula-B tokamak. First results include extensive measurements of the total ECE radiation, integrated over 50-1000 GHz, during ohmic and current drive operation, and preliminary interferograms from the polarizing interferometer. Future plans are discussed

  5. Present status and future development of Qinshan nuclear power project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouyang Yu

    1987-01-01

    Qinshan 300 MWe Nuclear power Project is the first domestically designed and constructed nuclear power plant in China. Here is a brief description of its progress in design work, equipment manufacture and site construction since the first structural concrete in March 1985. In Qinshan area four units of 600 MWe each are planned to be built with collaboration of proper foreign partners. (author)

  6. Suicide among Older People: Projections for the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, Ann Pollinger; Hendin, Herbert

    1983-01-01

    Demonstrates the relationship between cohort size and longitudinal suicide rates, with reference to four particular cohorts. Combines this perspective with projected population increases among older age groups to estimate the scope of the problem of suicide among older people during the early decades of the next century. (Author/JAC)

  7. Baseline survey for rare plant species and native plant communities within the Kamehameha Schools 'Lupea Safe Harbor Planning Project Area, North Kona District, Island of Hawai'i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobi, James; Warshauer, F. R.; Price, Jonathan

    2010-01-01

    Kamehameha Schools, in conjunction with several federal, state, and private organizations, has proposed to conduct conservation management on approximately 5,340 ha (~13,200 acres) of land they own in the vicinity of Kīpukalupea in the North Kona District on the island of Hawai'i. The goal of this program is to restore and enhance the habitat to benefit native plant and animal populations that are currently, or were formerly, found in this site. The initial phase of this project has been focused on various activities including conducting baseline surveys for bird and plant species so Kamehameha Schools could develop a Safe Harbor Agreement (SHA) for the proposed project lands relative to the habitat management and species reintroduction efforts they would like to conduct in the Lupea Project area. This report summarizes methods that were used to collect field data on plant species and communities within the project area, and the results of that initial survey. The information was used to calculate baseline values for all listed threatened or endangered plant species found, or expected to be found, within the project area, and to design a monitoring program to assess changes in plant communities and rare plant species relative to management activities over the duration of the SHA.

  8. Point Lepreau nuclear project unlocks power future of New Brunswick

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgess, E J [New Brunswick Electric Power Commission, Fredericton (Canada)

    1976-08-01

    Projects under development will increase the generating capacity of New Brunswick Electric Power Commission from 1.47 to 3.14 GW. Of these projects, the most significant is the 0.63 GW Point Lepreau CANDU reactor. Progress in the construction of the power reactor is summarized. The concrete reactor building was slipformed in April 1976. A second nuclear unit at Point Lepreau is being considered. Information is also provided on the new oil-fired station at Coleson Cove, a new oil- or coal-fired unit at Dalhousie and further hydro units at Mactaquac. A 0.16 GW pumped storage hydro unit at Green River is being considered. Information on transmission (Including the HVDC system), substations, and connection with Hydro Quebec is included.

  9. The Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project: Experiences and future plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, D.E.; Lego, A.J.; Clifford, A.E.

    1995-12-31

    Fully operational in June of 1994, the Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project was started to gain insight into the costs and benefits of providing ISDN service to the homes of Fermilab researchers. Fourteen users were chosen from throughout Fermilab, but the number of Fermilab-employed spouses pushed the total user count to 20. Each home was equipped with a basic rate ISDN (BRI) line, a BRI Ethernet half-bridge, and an NT-1. An inter-departmental team coordinated the project. Usage at each home was tracked and frequent surveys were attempted. Lessons learned include: working with Ameritech can be difficult; careful monitoring is essential; and configuration of home computing equipment is very time consuming. Plans include moving entirely to primary rate ISDN hubs, support for different home ISDN equipment and better usage and performance tracking.

  10. The Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project: Experiences and future plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, D.E.; Lego, A.J.; Clifford, A.E.

    1995-01-01

    Fully operational in June of 1994, the Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project was started to gain insight into the costs and benefits of providing ISDN service to the homes of Fermilab researchers. Fourteen users were chosen from throughout Fermilab, but the number of Fermilab-employed spouses pushed the total user count to 20. Each home was equipped with a basic rate ISDN (BRI) line, a BRI Ethernet half-bridge, and an NT-1. An inter-departmental team coordinated the project. Usage at each home was tracked and frequent surveys were attempted. Lessons learned include: working with Ameritech can be difficult; careful monitoring is essential; and configuration of home computing equipment is very time consuming. Plans include moving entirely to primary rate ISDN hubs, support for different home ISDN equipment and better usage and performance tracking

  11. The Fermilab ISDN pilot project: experiences and future plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, D.E.; Lego, A.J.; Clifford, A.E.

    1996-01-01

    Fully operational in June of 1994, the Fermilab ISDN Pilot Project was started to gain insight into the costs and benefits of providing ISDN service to the homes of Fermilab researchers. Fourteen were chosen from throughout Fermilab, but the number of Fermilab-employed spouses pushed the total user count to 20. each home was equipped with a basic rate ISDN (BRI) Ethernet half-bridge, and an NT-1. An inter-departmental team coordinated the project. Usage at each home was tracked and frequent surveys were attempted. Lessons learned include: working with Ameritech can be difficult; careful monitoring is essential; and configuration of home computing equipment is very time consuming. Plans include moving entirely to primary rate ISDN hubs, support for different home ISDN equipment and better usage and performance tracking. (author)

  12. Small launchers (current and future projects in the world)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumann, W. G.

    1993-01-01

    Small satellites need launching services using small launchers capable of injecting 100 to 1000 kg into a polar orbit at an altitude of 1000 km. Operational small launchers are reviewed as well as developing and planned ones. Launcher characteristics, constraints, performance, and status are detailed. Few technical problems are encountered, as most launcher projects call for existing components and well known technologies. Most of the difficulties have come from launch site availability and from financial considerations.

  13. Up-to-date and projected estimates of survival for people with cystic fibrosis using baseline characteristics: A longitudinal study using UK patient registry data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keogh, Ruth H; Szczesniak, Rhonda; Taylor-Robinson, David; Bilton, Diana

    2018-03-01

    Cystic fibrosis (CF) is the most common inherited disease in Caucasians, affecting around 10,000 individuals in the UK today. Prognosis has improved considerably over recent decades with ongoing improvements in treatment and care. Providing up-to-date survival predictions is important for patients, clinicians and health services planning. Flexible parametric survival modelling of UK CF Registry data from 2011 to 2015, capturing 602 deaths in 10,428 individuals. Survival curves were estimated from birth; conditional on reaching older ages; and projected under different assumptions concerning future mortality trends, using baseline characteristics of sex, CFTR genotype (zero, one, two copies of F508del) and age at diagnosis. Male sex was associated with better survival, as was older age at diagnosis, but only in F508del non-homozygotes. Survival did not differ by genotype among individuals diagnosed at birth. Median survival ages at birth in F508del homozygotes were 46years (males) and 41years (females), and similar in non-homozygotes diagnosed at birth. F508del heterozygotes diagnosed aged 5 had median survival ages of 57 (males) and 51 (females). Conditional on survival to 30, median survival age rises to 52 (males) and 49 (females) in homozygotes. Mortality rates decreased annually by 2% during 2006-2015. Future improvements at this rate suggest median survival ages for F508del homozygous babies of 65 (males) and 56 (females). Over half of babies born today, and of individuals aged 30 and above today, can expect to survive into at least their fifth decade. Evidence before this study We searched PubMed with terms "(cystic fibrosis survival) and (projection OR model OR registry OR United Kingdom OR UK)" to identify relevant studies on survival estimates for individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF). We also considered the most recent annual report from the UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry (Cystic Fibrosis Trust, 2016), a review by Buzzetti and colleagues (2009), the chapter

  14. Methodological and Practical Considerations for DevelopingMultiproject Baselines for Electric Power and Cement Industry Projects inCentral America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murtishaw, Scott; Sathaye, Jayant; Galitsky, Christina; Dorion,Kristel

    2004-09-02

    The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) andthe Center for Sustainable Development in the Americas (CSDA) conductedtechnical studies and organized two training workshops to developcapacity in Central America for the evaluation of climate changeprojects. This paper describes the results of two baseline case studiesconducted for these workshops, one for the power sector and one for thecement industry, that were devised to illustrate certain approaches tobaseline setting. Multiproject baseline emission rates (BERs) for themain Guatemalan electricity grid were calculated from 2001 data. Inrecent years, the Guatemalan power sector has experienced rapid growth;thus, a sufficient number of new plants have been built to estimateviable BERs. We found that BERs for baseload plants offsetting additionalbaseload capacity ranged from 0.702 kgCO2/kWh (using a weighted averagestringency) to 0.507 kgCO2/kWh (using a 10th percentile stringency),while the baseline for plants offsetting load-followingcapacity is lowerat 0.567 kgCO2/kWh. For power displaced from existing load-followingplants, the rate is higher, 0.735 kgCO2/kWh, as a result of the age ofsome plants used for meeting peak loads and the infrequency of their use.The approved consolidated methodology for the Clean Development Mechanismyields a single rate of 0.753 kgCO2/kWh. Due to the relatively smallnumber of cement plants in the region and the regional nature of thecement market, all of Central America was chosen as the geographicboundary for setting cement industry BERs. Unfortunately, actualoperations and output data were unobtainable for most of the plants inthe region, and many data were estimated. Cement industry BERs rangedfrom 205 kgCO2 to 225 kgCO2 per metric ton of cement.

  15. Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslava Garza

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America.We forecast the future (2050 distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3 and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2 were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change.The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change.

  16. Insurance and indemnification implications of future space projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, John E.

    1987-01-01

    NASA options regarding insurance and indemnification policies as they relate to NASA customers and contractors are described. The foundation for the discussion is the way in which NASA is planning to return the Space Shuttle fleet to safe flight as well as current U.S. policy concerning future uses of the Shuttle fleet. Issues discussed include: the nature of the Shuttle manifest; the policy regarding property damage or destruction; insurance against liability to third parties; the reduction of the scope of the risk to be insured; NASA as the insurer; a sharing arrangement between the user and NASA; and contractors and subcontractors involved in Shuttle operations.

  17. Atmospheric nucleation: highlights of the EUCAARI project and future directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.-M. Kerminen

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Within the project EUCAARI (European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality interactions, atmospheric nucleation was studied by (i developing and testing new air ion and cluster spectrometers, (ii conducting homogeneous nucleation experiments for sulphate and organic systems in the laboratory, (iii investigating atmospheric nucleation mechanism under field conditions, and (iv applying new theoretical and modelling tools for data interpretation and development of parameterisations. The current paper provides a synthesis of the obtained results and identifies the remaining major knowledge gaps related to atmospheric nucleation. The most important technical achievement of the project was the development of new instruments for measuring sub-3 nm particle populations, along with the extensive application of these instruments in both the laboratory and the field. All the results obtained during EUCAARI indicate that sulphuric acid plays a central role in atmospheric nucleation. However, also vapours other than sulphuric acid are needed to explain the nucleation and the subsequent growth processes, at least in continental boundary layers. Candidate vapours in this respect are some organic compounds, ammonia, and especially amines. Both our field and laboratory data demonstrate that the nucleation rate scales to the first or second power of the nucleating vapour concentration(s. This agrees with the few earlier field observations, but is in stark contrast with classical thermodynamic nucleation theories. The average formation rates of 2-nm particles were found to vary by almost two orders of magnitude between the different EUCAARI sites, whereas the formation rates of charged 2-nm particles varied very little between the sites. Overall, our observations are indicative of frequent, yet moderate, ion-induced nucleation usually outweighed by much stronger neutral nucleation events in the continental lower troposphere. The most concrete

  18. The GeantV project: preparing the future of simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amadio, G; Bianchini, C; Iope, R L; Apostolakis, J; Brun, R; Carminati, F; Gheata, A; Nikitina, T; Novak, M; Pokorski, W; Shadura, O; Bandieramonte, M; Bhattacharyya, A; Mohanty, A; Seghal, R; Canal, Ph; Elvira, D; Lima, G; Duhem, L; De Fine Licht, J

    2015-01-01

    Detector simulation is consuming at least half of the HEP computing cycles, and even so, experiments have to take hard decisions on what to simulate, as their needs greatly surpass the availability of computing resources. New experiments still in the design phase such as FCC, CLIC and ILC as well as upgraded versions of the existing LHC detectors will push further the simulation requirements. Since the increase in computing resources is not likely to keep pace with our needs, it is therefore necessary to explore innovative ways of speeding up simulation in order to sustain the progress of High Energy Physics. The GeantV project aims at developing a high performance detector simulation system integrating fast and full simulation that can be ported on different computing architectures, including CPU accelerators. After more than two years of R and D the project has produced a prototype capable of transporting particles in complex geometries exploiting micro-parallelism, SIMD and multithreading. Portability is obtained via C++ template techniques that allow the development of machine- independent computational kernels. A set of tables derived from Geant4 for cross sections and final states provides a realistic shower development and, having been ported into a Geant4 physics list, can be used as a basis for a direct performance comparison. (paper)

  19. Development of a database system for near-future climate change projections under the Japanese National Project SI-CAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagawa, Y.; Kawahara, S.; Araki, F.; Matsuoka, D.; Ishikawa, Y.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Okada, Y.; Kawazoe, S.; Watanabe, S.; Ishii, M.; Mizuta, R.; Murata, A.; Kawase, H.

    2017-12-01

    Analyses of large ensemble data are quite useful in order to produce probabilistic effect projection of climate change. Ensemble data of "+2K future climate simulations" are currently produced by Japanese national project "Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT)" as a part of a database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF; Mizuta et al. 2016) produced by Program for Risk Information on Climate Change. Those data consist of global warming simulations and regional downscaling simulations. Considering that those data volumes are too large (a few petabyte) to download to a local computer of users, a user-friendly system is required to search and download data which satisfy requests of the users. We develop "a database system for near-future climate change projections" for providing functions to find necessary data for the users under SI-CAT. The database system for near-future climate change projections mainly consists of a relational database, a data download function and user interface. The relational database using PostgreSQL is a key function among them. Temporally and spatially compressed data are registered on the relational database. As a first step, we develop the relational database for precipitation, temperature and track data of typhoon according to requests by SI-CAT members. The data download function using Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) provides a function to download temporally and spatially extracted data based on search results obtained by the relational database. We also develop the web-based user interface for using the relational database and the data download function. A prototype of the database system for near-future climate change projections are currently in operational test on our local server. The database system for near-future climate change projections will be released on Data Integration and Analysis System Program (DIAS) in fiscal year 2017

  20. Balance of plant improvements for future reactor projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollingshaus, H.

    1987-01-01

    Many studies have shown that improvements in portions of the plant other than the reactor systems can yield large cost savings during the design, construction, and operation of future reactor power plants. This portion is defined as the Balance of Plant which includes virtually everything except the equipment furnished by the Nuclear Steam Supply System manufacturer. It normally includes the erection of the entire plant including the NSSS. Cost of BOP equipment, engineering and construction work is therefore most of the cost of the plant. Improvements in the BOP have been identified that will substantially reduce nuclear plant cost and construction time while at the same time increasing availability and operability and improving safety. Improvements achieved through standardizatoin, simplification, three-dimensional (3D) computer-aided design, modular construction, innovative construction techniques, and applications for Artificial Intelligence Systems are described. (author)

  1. Long-term trends in US gas supply and prices: 1993 edition of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.J.

    1993-03-01

    A Summary of the gas supply outlook in the 1993 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, adopted as a major input to the planning cycle of the 1994 research and development program, is presented. Significant changes were made in developing the gas supply and price trends for the 1993 edition of the projection. The GRI Hydrocarbon Model was expanded to include the Canadian hydrocarbon resource base. Thus, Canadian and lower-48 gas production and prices were developed on a fully integrated basis in the 1993 projection. The lower-48 hydrocarbon resource estimate was increased, reflecting the results of the recent National Petroleum Council gas study and ongoing GRI resource work. The effects of new technology and practice on drilling costs and exploration efficiency were included for the first time. Appendices include comparisons of supply and price trends

  2. Climate change projections: past and future mysteries of climate science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meehl, Gerald A.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: The history of climate change has been wrapped in mysteries. Some have been solved, and we await the outcome of others. The major mystery of 20th century climate was why did temperatures rise in the early part of the century, level off, and then rise rapidly again after the 1970s? It has only been in the past seven years that advances in climate modelling have allowed us to deconstruct 20th century climate to pull apart the separate influences of natural and human-caused factors. This has allowed us to understand the subtle interplay between these various influences that produced the temperature time evolution. Another mystery has involved extreme weather and climate events. Again, climate models have allowed us to quantify how the small changes in average climate translate into much larger changes of regional extremes. The biggest remaining mysteries in climate science involve the future, and how the climate will evolve over the coming century. Up until now, various scenarios postulating different possible outcomes for 21st century climate, assuming different types of human activities, have been run in the climate models to provide a wide range of possible futures. However, more recently the outlook for global warming is being framed as a combination of mitigation and adaptation. If policy actions are taken to mitigate part of the problem of global warming, then climate models must be relied on to quantify the time-evolving picture of how much regional climate change we must adapt to. Solving this mystery will be the biggest and most important challenge ever taken on by the climate modelling community

  3. Floridian heatwaves and extreme precipitation: future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavendra, Ajay; Dai, Aiguo; Milrad, Shawn M.; Cloutier-Bisbee, Shealynn R.

    2018-02-01

    Observational analysis and climate modeling efforts concur that the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves will increase as the Earth's mean climate shifts towards warmer temperatures. While the impacts and mechanisms of heatwaves have been well explored, extreme temperatures over Florida are generally understudied. This paper sheds light on Floridian heatwaves by exploring 13 years of daily data from surface observations and high-resolution WRF climate simulations for the same timeframe. The characteristics of the current and future heatwaves under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario for 2070-2099 were then investigated. Results show a tripling in the frequency, and greater than a sixfold increase in the mean duration of heatwaves over Florida when the current standard of heatwaves was used. The intensity of heatwaves also increased by 4-6 °C due to the combined effects of rising mean temperatures and a 1-2 °C increase attributed to the flattening of the temperature distribution. Since Florida's atmospheric boundary layer is rich in moisture and heatwaves could further increase the moisture content in the lower troposphere, the relationship between heatwaves and extreme precipitation was also explored in both the current and future climate. As expected, rainfall during a heatwave event was anomalously low, but it quickly recovered to normal within 3 days after the passage of a heatwave. Finally, the late 21st-century climate could witness a slight decrease in the mean precipitation over Florida, accompanied by heavier heatwave-associated extreme precipitation events over central and southern Florida.

  4. Geothermal project will predetermine future of the Kosice heating plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirman, K.

    2003-01-01

    Geoterm, a.s. manager O. Halas describes economic and technical parameters of geothermal energy source by village Durkov near Kosice. It is planned to exploitate geothermal energy source for Kosicka heating plant (TEKO). Three basic variants of technical connecting to geothermal source are developed. Temperature at TEKO entrance should reach 125 degrees, annual heating energy supply will reach 2100 TJ and source output will reach 100 MWt, while admissible deviation at all indicators reaches 10%. The first geothermal energy should by supplied to TEKO in 2007. The investments overlapping 3 billions Slovak crowns are necessary to realize whole project. According to O. Halas a credit from World Bank guaranteed by state is crucial

  5. Projection of Korean Probable Maximum Precipitation under Future Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okjeong Lee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, air temperature and humidity of the future are expected to gradually increase over the current. In this study, future PMPs are estimated by using future dew point temperature projection data which are obtained from RCM data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. First, bias included in future dew point temperature projection data which is provided on a daily basis is corrected through a quantile-mapping method. Next, using a scale-invariance technique, 12-hour duration 100-year return period dew point temperatures which are essential input data for PMPs estimation are estimated from bias-corrected future dew point temperature data. After estimating future PMPs, it can be shown that PMPs in all future climate change scenarios (AR5 RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 are very likely to increase.

  6. Revealing, Reducing, and Representing Uncertainties in New Hydrologic Projections for Climate-changed Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Jeffrey; Clark, Martyn; Gutmann, Ethan; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Rasmussen, Roy

    2016-04-01

    The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has had primary responsibility for multi-purpose water resource operations on most of the major river systems in the U.S. for more than 200 years. In that time, the USACE projects and programs making up those operations have proved mostly robust against the range of natural climate variability encountered over their operating life spans. However, in some watersheds and for some variables, climate change now is known to be shifting the hydroclimatic baseline around which that natural variability occurs and changing the range of that variability as well. This makes historical stationarity an inappropriate basis for assessing continued project operations under climate-changed futures. That means new hydroclimatic projections are required at multiple scales to inform decisions about specific threats and impacts, and for possible adaptation responses to limit water-resource vulnerabilities and enhance operational resilience. However, projections of possible future hydroclimatologies have myriad complex uncertainties that require explicit guidance for interpreting and using them to inform those decisions about climate vulnerabilities and resilience. Moreover, many of these uncertainties overlap and interact. Recent work, for example, has shown the importance of assessing the uncertainties from multiple sources including: global model structure [Meehl et al., 2005; Knutti and Sedlacek, 2013]; internal climate variability [Deser et al., 2012; Kay et al., 2014]; climate downscaling methods [Gutmann et al., 2012; Mearns et al., 2013]; and hydrologic models [Addor et al., 2014; Vano et al., 2014; Mendoza et al., 2015]. Revealing, reducing, and representing these uncertainties is essential for defining the plausible quantitative climate change narratives required to inform water-resource decision-making. And to be useful, such quantitative narratives, or storylines, of climate change threats and hydrologic impacts must sample

  7. Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Agneta; Meier, H E Markus; Ripszam, Matyas; Rowe, Owen; Wikner, Johan; Haglund, Peter; Eilola, Kari; Legrand, Catherine; Figueroa, Daniela; Paczkowska, Joanna; Lindehoff, Elin; Tysklind, Mats; Elmgren, Ragnar

    2015-06-01

    Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 °C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.

  8. An Open Access future? Report from the eurocancercoms project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, R; Warden, R

    2011-01-01

    In March 2011, as part of the background research to the FP7 Eurocancercoms project, the European Association for Cancer Research (EACR) conducted an online survey of its members working in Europe to discover their experiences of and attitudes to the issues surrounding academic publishing and Open Access. This paper presents the results from this survey and compares them to the results from a much larger survey on the same topic from the Study of Open Access Publishing (SOAP). The responses from both surveys show very positive attitudes to the Open Access publishing route; perhaps the most challenging statistic from the EACR survey is that 88% of respondents believe that publicly funded research should be made available to be read and used without access barriers As a conclusion and invitation to further discussion, this paper also contributes to the debate around subscription and Open Access publishing, supporting the case for accelerating the progress towards Open Access publishing of cancer research articles as a particularly supportive way of assisting all researchers to make unhindered progress with their work. PMID:22276063

  9. [Gdansk HIV-AIDS project, yesterday, today and future].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zielińska, W

    1995-09-01

    Medical care project for HIV positive and AIDS patients in Gdańsk voivodship was established in 1988 in the Clinic for Infectious Diseases of Gdańsk Medical University. The aim of this modern and multidirectional program was to provide full medical care for HIV/AIDS patients and introduce effective prophylaxis against spread of HIV infection. According to the project-clinical ward, outpatient clinic for HIV positive and AIDS patients, diagnostic and laboratory units, were established. Close cooperation including specialistic and general medical care, was set with detoxication ward, rehabilitation centers for drug addicts, prison medical services and the Korczak Orphanage. Education of medical staff and some social groups was provided (teachers, teenagers of secondary schools, journalists, police employees). Clinical ward for HIV positive patients who are in need of inpatient medical care is localized in the Clinic for Infectious Diseases of Gdańsk Medical University. The ward has 16 double - bed Melcer's boxes which are used for other HIV/AIDS patients according to present needs. Free beds are used for HIV negative patients. HIV/AIDS Outpatient Clinic is localized in Venerologic Outpatient Unit. This was because of some psychological, social, professional and organization aspects. Outpatient Clinic staff is responsible for first patients' examination. Serological diagnostics of HIV infection is follow up for everyone (anonymous testing is possible); testing for STD is available also. Diagnostic laboratory base for clinical ward and other units are the laboratories of Gdańsk Voivodship Hospital for Infectious Diseases. Clinic for Infectious Diseases supervises all co-operating units. These are the following: 10-beds detoxication ward for drug addicts in Psychiatric - Neurological Hospital "Srebrzysko", 70-80 places in rehabilitation centers for drug addicts in Zapowiednik and Smazyno, remand prison ward for HIV positive patients (this is the first ward

  10. Value generation of future CSP projects in North Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kost, Christoph; Engelken, Maximilian; Schlegl, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    This paper discusses the value generation potential for local and international industry in different development scenarios of the concentrating solar power (CSP) market in North Africa until 2030. It analyzes the economic impact resulting from the participation of North African and European companies during construction and operation of CSP plants. The assessment is based on a self-developed solar technologies market development model (STMD) that includes economic and technical requirements and constraints for the creation of a local CSP market. In-depth interviews with industry stakeholders provide specific input, validate the calculations and complement the quantitative model results and conclusions. Long-term potential for locally generated revenues from CSP plant construction are modeled and lead to a share of local revenues of up to 60%. Potential market size of solar power plants in North Africa could reach total revenues of 120 Billion euros and thus demand for components and services contribute to national gross domestic products significantly. Recommendations are given for regional industry cooperation and policy actions for the support of local and international CSP industry in North Africa in order to improve the investment environment and growth of renewable energies in the region. - Highlights: ►New economic model to evaluate value generation of CSP take-off in North Africa. ►CSP components are assessed regarding their potentials to be produced locally. ►Potential for locally generated revenues of CSP plants: 60% of total value. ►Socio-economic impacts of RE projects become more relevant to investment decisions.

  11. Association between Cognitive Status and Physical Activity: Study Profile on Baseline Survey of the My Mind Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Gagliardi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The incidence of people with dementia is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, but it seems that there is a relationship between an active lifestyle and cognitive decline. The present study aimed to compare the characteristics and engagement in the physical activity (PA of three groups of Italian elderly with different cognitive statuses at baseline phase. Methods: Data were examined using the results from the “My Mind Project” on 305 community-dwelling Italians. The sample was comprised of 93 subjects with Alzheimer’s disease (AD, 109 with mild cognitive impairment (MCI and 103 healthy elderly (HE. Results: Classification of subjects on the basis of Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE score showed that 47% of HE performed the highest level of physical activity while 40% of AD performed the lowest level. MCI subjects were distributed quite homogeneously across the levels (p < 0.001. Physical activity such as walking and light sports was carried out mainly and more frequently by HE as compared to the others (p < 0.05. As regards functional status, AD presented worse conditions in basic and instrumental activities of daily living than the other groups (p < 0.001. Conclusions: Our results evidenced that subjects with cognitive decline had the tendency to engage in PA less than HE. In particular, age and education negatively affected engagement in PA.

  12. Visual impairment at baseline is associated with future poor physical functioning among middle-aged women: The Study of Women's Health Across the Nation, Michigan Site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandrasekaran, Navasuja; Harlow, Sioban; Moroi, Sayoko; Musch, David; Peng, Qing; Karvonen-Gutierrez, Carrie

    2017-02-01

    Emerging evidence suggests that the prevalence rates of poor functioning and of disability are increasing among middle-aged individuals. Visual impairment is associated with poor functioning among older adults but little is known about the impact of vision on functioning during midlife. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of visual impairment on future physical functioning among middle-aged women. In this longitudinal study, the sample consisted of 483 women aged 42 to 56 years, from the Michigan site of the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation. At baseline, distance and near vision were measured using a Titmus vision screener. Visual impairment was defined as visual acuity worse than 20/40. Physical functioning was measured up to 10 years later using performance-based measures, including a 40-foot timed walk, timed stair climb and forward reach. Women with impaired distance vision at baseline had 2.81 centimeters less forward reach distance (95% confidence interval (CI): -4.19, -1.42) and 4.26s longer stair climb time (95% CI: 2.73, 5.79) at follow-up than women without impaired distance vision. Women with impaired near vision also had less forward reach distance (2.26 centimeters, 95% CI: -3.30, -1.21) than those without impaired near vision. Among middle-aged women, visual impairment is a marker of poor physical functioning. Routine eye testing and vision correction may help improve physical functioning among midlife individuals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Environmental baseline study of the Los Medanos Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) project area of New Mexico: a progress report. An addendum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolfe, H.G.

    1977-09-01

    Sandia Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, has been conducting exploratory drilling operations for a Waste Isolation Pilot Program Eddy and Lea counties in southeast New Mexico for almost two years. Prior to the establishment of such a program, an environmental study has been carried out as a baseline for evaluation of the impact of future activities in the Los Medanos area. Data are presented on the geology; topography; climate; vegetation; and population density, diet, and seasonal movements of mammals, lizards, snakes, birds, insects, and ground-dwelling arthropods of the study area

  14. Glaucoma in Asia: regional prevalence variations and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Errol Wei'en; Li, Xiang; Tham, Yih-Chung; Liao, Jiemin; Wong, Tien Yin; Aung, Tin; Cheng, Ching-Yu

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate glaucoma prevalence and disease burden across Asian subregions from 2013 to 2040. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of 23 population-based studies of 1318 primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) cases in 66,800 individuals and 691 primary angle closure glaucoma (PACG) cases in 72,767 individuals in Asia. Regions in Asia were defined based on United Nations' (UN) classification of macro-geographic regions. PubMed, Medline and Web of Science databases were searched for population-based glaucoma prevalence studies using standardised criteria published to 31 December 2013. Pooled glaucoma prevalence for individuals aged 40-80 years was calculated using hierarchical Bayesian approaches. Prevalence differences by geographic subregion, subtype and habitation were examined with random effects meta-regression models. Estimates of individuals with glaucoma from 2013 to 2040 were based on the UN World Population Prospects. In 2013, pooled overall glaucoma prevalence was 3.54% (95% credible interval (CrI) 1.83 to 6.28). POAG (2.34%, 95% CrI 0.96 to 4.55) predominated over PACG (0.73%, 95% CrI 0.18 to 1.96). With age and gender adjustment, PACG prevalence was higher in East than South East Asia (OR 5.55, 95% CrI 1.52 to 14.73), and POAG prevalence was higher in urban than rural populations (OR 2.11, 95% CrI 1.57 to 2.38). From 2013 to 2040, South Central Asia will record the steepest increase in number of glaucoma individuals from 17.06 million to 32.90 million compared with other Asian subregions. In 2040, South-Central Asia is also projected to overtake East Asia for highest overall glaucoma and POAG burden, while PACG burden remains highest in East Asia. Across the Asian subregions, there was greater glaucoma burden in South-Central and East Asia. Sustainable public health strategies to combat glaucoma in Asia are needed. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to

  15. Role and future subjects of support project 'research activity on radiation etc. by high school students'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iimoto, Takeshi; Fujimoto, Noboru; Nakamura, Takashi

    2014-01-01

    This is a report of the project of MEXT(The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology) to support high school students researching radiation etc. This subject research consists of an exchange meeting, independence research, and a presentation meeting of the results. Media introduced the project and this was a very reputable project. However, regrettably this support project was broken off in the business year of 2012. In this document, the outline of the support project for seven years is introduced and the possibility of future deployment is discussed. (author)

  16. The impact of ageing and changing utilization patterns on future cardiovascular drug expenditure: a pharmacoepidemiological projection approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kildemoes, Helle Wallach; Andersen, Morten; Støvring, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    To develop a method for projecting the impact of ageing and changing drug utilization patterns on future drug expenditure.......To develop a method for projecting the impact of ageing and changing drug utilization patterns on future drug expenditure....

  17. Futures project anticipates changes and challenges facing forests of the northern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen R. Shifley; W. Keith Moser; Michael E. Goerndt; Nianfu Song; Mark D. Nelson; David J. Nowak; Patrick D. Miles; Brett J. Butler; Ryan D. DeSantis; Francisco X. Aguilar; Brian G. Tavernia

    2014-01-01

    The Northern Forest Futures Project aims to reveal how today's trends and choices are likely to change the future forest landscape in the northeastern and midwestern United States. The research is focused on the 20-state quadrant bounded by Maine, Maryland, Missouri, and Minnesota. This area, which encompasses most of the Central Hardwood Forest region, is the...

  18. Virtual Mockup test based on computational science and engineering. Near future technology projected by JSPS-RFTFADVENTURE project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshimura, Shinobu

    2001-01-01

    The ADVENTURE project began on August, 1997, as a project in the computational science' field of JSPS-RFTFADVENTURE project, and is progressed as five year project. In this project, by using versatile parallel computer environment such as PC cluster, super parallel computer, and so on , to solve an arbitrary shape of actual dynamical equation by using 10 to 100 million freedom class mode under maintaining a general use analytical capacity agreeable with present general use computational mechanics system, further development of a large-scale parallel computational mechanics system (ADVENTURE system) capable of carrying out an optimization design on shapes, physical properties, loading conditions, and so on is performed. Here was scoped, after outlining on background of R and D on ADVENTURE system and its features, on near future virtual mockup test forecast from it. (G.K.)

  19. The use of PDAs to collect baseline survey data: lessons learned from a pilot project in Bolivia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escandon, I N; Searing, H; Goldberg, R; Duran, R; Arce, J Monterrey

    2008-01-01

    We compared the use of personal digital assistants (PDAs) against the use of standard paper questionnaires for collecting survey data. The evaluation consisted of qualitative approaches to document the process of introducing PDAs. Fieldwork was carried out during June-July 2005 at 12 sites in Bolivia. Data collectors reacted positively to the use of the PDAs and noted the advantages and disadvantages of paper and PDA data collection. A number of difficulties encountered in the use of PDA technology serve as a warning for investigators planning its adoption. Problems included incompatible data files (which impeded the ability to interpret data), an inadequate back-up protocol, and lack of a good 'fit' between the technology and the study. Ensuring the existence of a back-end database, developing an appropriate and adequate back-up protocol, and assessing whether a technology 'fits' the project are important factors in weighing the decision to collect data using PDAs.

  20. Project report about the motives of the future law project 'security and nuclear clearness'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-11-01

    This project aims to prevent the hazards in relation with nuclear activities for man and his environment, as well to reinforce information on risks associated to these activities and on measures taken to avoid them. (N.C.)

  1. Baseline rationing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Moreno-Ternero, Juan D.; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

    The standard problem of adjudicating conflicting claims describes a situation in which a given amount of a divisible good has to be allocated among agents who hold claims against it exceeding the available amount. This paper considers more general rationing problems in which, in addition to claims...... to international protocols for the reduction of greenhouse emissions, or water distribution in drought periods. We define a family of allocation methods for such general rationing problems - called baseline rationing rules - and provide an axiomatic characterization for it. Any baseline rationing rule within...... the family is associated with a standard rule and we show that if the latter obeys some properties reflecting principles of impartiality, priority and solidarity, the former obeys them too....

  2. Projecting the self into the future in individuals with schizophrenia: a preliminary cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffard, Stéphane; Bortolon, Catherine; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Gardes, Jeanne; Gely-Nargeot, Marie-Christine; Capdevielle, Delphine; Van der Linden, Martial

    2016-07-01

    The ability to project oneself into the future contributes to development and maintenance of a coherent sense of identity. If recent research has revealed that schizophrenia is associated with difficulties envisioning the future, little is known about patients' future self-representations. In this study, 27 participants with schizophrenia and 26 healthy controls were asked to simulate mental representations of plausible and highly significant future events (self-defining future projections, SDFPs) that they anticipate to happen in their personal future. Main results showed that schizophrenia patients had difficulties in reflecting on the broader meaning and implications of imagined future events. In addition, and contrary to our hypothesis, a large majority of SDFPs in schizophrenia patients were positive events, including achievements, relationship, and leisure contents. Interestingly, patients and controls did not differ on the perceived probability that these events will occur in the future. Our results suggest that schizophrenia patients have an exaggerated positive perception of their future selves. Together, these findings lend support to the idea that past and future self-defining representations have both similar and distinct characteristics in schizophrenia.

  3. Calculation Method for the Projection of Future Spent Nuclear Fuel Discharges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    B. McLeod

    2002-01-01

    This report describes the calculation method developed for the projection of future utility spent nuclear fuel (SNF) discharges in regard to their timing, quantity, burnup, and initial enrichment. This projection method complements the utility-supplied RW-859 data on historic discharges and short-term projections of SNF discharges by providing long-term projections that complete the total life cycle of discharges for each of the current U.S. nuclear power reactors. The method was initially developed in mid-1999 to update the SNF discharge projection associated with the 1995 RW-859 utility survey (CRWMS M and O 1996). and was further developed as described in Rev. 00 of this report (CRWMS M and O 2001a). Primary input to the projection of SNF discharges is the utility projection of the next five discharges from each nuclear unit, which is provided via the revised final version of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 1998 RW-859 utility survey (EIA 2000a). The projection calculation method is implemented via a set of Excel 97 spreadsheets. These calculations provide the interface between receipt of the utility five-discharge projections that are provided in the RW-859 survey, and the delivery of projected life-cycle SNF discharge quantities and characteristics in the format requisite for performing logistics analysis to support design of the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS). Calculation method improvements described in this report include the addition of a reactor-specific maximum enrichment-based discharge burnup limit. This limit is the consequence of the enrichment limit, currently 5 percent. which is imposed as a Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) license condition on nuclear fuel fabrication plants. In addition, the calculation method now includes the capability for projecting future nuclear plant power upratings, consistent with many such recent plant uprates and the prospect of additional future uprates. Finally. this report

  4. UPDATING THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF PROJECT EDUCATION TECHNOLOGY IN FUTURE MUSIC TEACHERS’ VOCAL AND CHORAL TRAINING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Haiye

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to characterizing features of implementing project technology into future music teachers’ vocal and choral training. The analysis of scientific papers of outstanding scientists in philosophy, psychology, and art education, which deal with modern directions of using project technology, highlight its role in art education process. A methodological base is supported by considering contemporary scientific researches, in particular the theory and methodology of musical studies in accordance with forming students’ independence in the process of solving educational problems by means of project technology; developing principles of students’ professional training optimization on the basis of project activity; innovative development of future music teachers’ professional training that gives to the presented material novelty and presentable appearance. Studying future music teachers’ vocal and choral training as a process of constructing that has a special purpose of improving the quality descriptions of educational vocal and choral collective sound functioning, the author of the article discloses the basic principles of implementing project technology into future music teachers’ vocal and choral training. The author of the article pays the special attention to revealing specific features and maintenance of project technology in vocal and choral training of future leaders of child's art groups. An emphasis is made on the following basic factors that influence development of students’ creative individuality: constructing projects of their own becoming; setting aims, tasks, strategies and facilities of vocal and choral work; directing to the result; independent creative activity; presentation, reflection and correction of a project. On the basis of the obtained data the following principles of project technology are put forward in future music teachers’ vocal and choral training: principle of independence; principle of

  5. Reservoir adaptive operating rules based on both of historical streamflow and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Chen, Jie; Lei, Xiaohui; Feng, Maoyuan

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is affecting hydrological variables and consequently is impacting water resources management. Historical strategies are no longer applicable under climate change. Therefore, adaptive management, especially adaptive operating rules for reservoirs, has been developed to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climate change. However, to date, adaptive operating rules are generally based on future projections involving uncertainties under climate change, yet ignoring historical information. To address this, we propose an approach for deriving adaptive operating rules considering both historical information and future projections, namely historical and future operating rules (HAFOR). A robustness index was developed by comparing benefits from HAFOR with benefits from conventional operating rules (COR). For both historical and future streamflow series, maximizations of both average benefits and the robustness index were employed as objectives, and four trade-offs were implemented to solve the multi-objective problem. Based on the integrated objective, the simulation-based optimization method was used to optimize the parameters of HAFOR. Using the Dongwushi Reservoir in China as a case study, HAFOR was demonstrated to be an effective and robust method for developing adaptive operating rules under the uncertain changing environment. Compared with historical or projected future operating rules (HOR or FPOR), HAFOR can reduce the uncertainty and increase the robustness for future projections, especially regarding results of reservoir releases and volumes. HAFOR, therefore, facilitates adaptive management in the context that climate change is difficult to predict accurately.

  6. The German joint research project "concepts for future gravity satellite missions"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reubelt, Tilo; Sneeuw, Nico; Fichter, Walter; Müller, Jürgen

    2010-05-01

    Within the German joint research project "concepts for future gravity satellite missions", funded by the Geotechnologies programme of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, options and concepts for future satellite missions for precise (time-variable) gravity field recovery are investigated. The project team is composed of members from science and industry, bringing together experts in geodesy, satellite systems, metrology, sensor technology and control systems. The majority of team members already contributed to former gravity missions. The composition of the team guarantees that not only geodetic aspects and objectives are investigated, but also technological and financial constraints are considered. Conversely, satellite, sensor and system concepts are developed and improved in a direct exchange with geodetic and scientific claims. The project aims to develop concepts for both near and mid-term future satellite missions, taking into account e.g. advanced satellite formations and constellations, improved orbit design, innovative metrology and sensor systems and advances in satellite systems.

  7. THE US LONG BASELINE NEUTRINO EXPERIMENT STUDY.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    BISHAI,M.

    2007-08-06

    The US Long Baseline Neutrino Experiment Study was commissioned jointly by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL)and Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL) to investigate the potential for future U.S. based long baseline neutrino oscillation experiments using MW class conventional neutrino beams that can be produced at FNAL. The experimental baselines are based on two possible detector locations: (1) off-axis to the existing FNAL NuMI beamline at baselines of 700 to 810 km and (2) NSF's proposed future Deep Underground Science and Engineering Laboratory (DUSEL) at baselines greater than 1000km. Two detector technologies are considered: a megaton class Water Cherenkov detector deployed deep underground at a DUSEL site, or a 100kT Liquid Argon Time-Projection Chamber (TPC) deployed on the surface at any of the proposed sites. The physics sensitivities of the proposed experiments are summarized. We find that conventional horn focused wide-band neutrino beam options from FNAL aimed at a massive detector with a baseline of > 1000km have the best sensitivity to CP violation and the neutrino mass hierarchy for values of the mixing angle {theta}{sub 13} down to 2{sup o}.

  8. From Surveillance to Intervention: Overview and Baseline Findings for the Active City of Liverpool Active Schools and SportsLinx (A-CLASS Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola McWhannell

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines the implementation of a programme of work that started with the development of a population-level children’s health, fitness and lifestyle study in 1996 (SportsLinx leading to selected interventions one of which is described in detail: the Active City of Liverpool, Active Schools and SportsLinx (A-CLASS Project. The A-CLASS Project aimed to quantify the effectiveness of structured and unstructured physical activity (PA programmes on children’s PA, fitness, body composition, bone health, cardiac and vascular structures, fundamental movement skills, physical self-perception and self-esteem. The study was a four-arm parallel-group school-based cluster randomised controlled trial (clinical trials no. NCT02963805, and compared different exposure groups: a high intensity PA (HIPA group, a fundamental movement skill (FMS group, a PA signposting (PASS group and a control group, in a two-schools-per-condition design. Baseline findings indicate that children’s fundamental movement skill competence levels are low-to-moderate, yet these skills are inversely associated with percentage body fat. Outcomes of this project will make an important contribution to the design and implementation of children’s PA promotion initiatives.

  9. Description of the global petroleum supply and demand outlook updated for the 1993 edition of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand, December 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreyfus, D.A.; Koklauner, A.B.

    1992-12-01

    Strategic planning of the research and development program carried out by Gas Research Institute (GRI) is supported by an annual GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand. Because petroleum products compete in a wide variety of energy uses, oil prices serve as a market clearing force for the entire energy system. A significant portion of the U.S. petroleum supply is imported, and the price of crude oil to U.S. refiners is determined by the international oil trade. Any projection of the U.S. energy situation, therefore, requires the evaluation of the global oil market and the impact of oil price changes on the supply/demand balances of market participants. The 1992 edition of the projection completed in August 1991 assumed that in the aftermath of the war in the Middle East the fundamentals of oil trade would reassert their influence. This did indeed occur and with astonishing speed. In the face of this outlook, GRI has revised its 1993 oil price track downward

  10. From Surveillance to Intervention: Overview and Baseline Findings for the Active City of Liverpool Active Schools and SportsLinx (A-CLASS) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    McWhannell, Nicola; Henaghan, Jayne L.

    2018-01-01

    This paper outlines the implementation of a programme of work that started with the development of a population-level children’s health, fitness and lifestyle study in 1996 (SportsLinx) leading to selected interventions one of which is described in detail: the Active City of Liverpool, Active Schools and SportsLinx (A-CLASS) Project. The A-CLASS Project aimed to quantify the effectiveness of structured and unstructured physical activity (PA) programmes on children’s PA, fitness, body composition, bone health, cardiac and vascular structures, fundamental movement skills, physical self-perception and self-esteem. The study was a four-arm parallel-group school-based cluster randomised controlled trial (clinical trials no. NCT02963805), and compared different exposure groups: a high intensity PA (HIPA) group, a fundamental movement skill (FMS) group, a PA signposting (PASS) group and a control group, in a two-schools-per-condition design. Baseline findings indicate that children’s fundamental movement skill competence levels are low-to-moderate, yet these skills are inversely associated with percentage body fat. Outcomes of this project will make an important contribution to the design and implementation of children’s PA promotion initiatives.

  11. Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

  12. Web-based access, aggregation, and visualization of future climate projections with emphasis on agricultural assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol

    2018-01-01

    Access to climate and spatial datasets by non-specialists is restricted by technical barriers involving hardware, software and data formats. We discuss an open-source online tool that facilitates downloading the climate data from the global circulation models used by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. The tool also offers temporal and spatial aggregation capabilities for incorporating future climate scenarios in applications where spatial aggregation is important. We hope that streamlined access to these data facilitates analysis of climate related issues while considering the uncertainties derived from future climate projections and temporal aggregation choices.

  13. Project Shikamana: Baseline Findings From a Community Empowerment-Based Combination HIV Prevention Trial Among Female Sex Workers in Iringa, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerrigan, Deanna; Mbwambo, Jessie; Likindikoki, Samuel; Beckham, Sarah; Mwampashi, Ard; Shembilu, Catherine; Mantsios, Andrea; Leddy, Anna; Davis, Wendy; Galai, Noya

    2017-01-01

    Community empowerment approaches have been found to be effective in responding to HIV among female sex workers (FSWs) in South Asia and Latin America. To date, limited rigorous evaluations of these approaches have been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. A phase II community randomized controlled trial is being conducted in Iringa, Tanzania, to evaluate the effectiveness of a community empowerment-based combination HIV prevention model (Project Shikamana) among a stratified sample of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected FSWs. Cohort members were recruited from entertainment venues across 2 communities in the region using time-location sampling. All study participants gave consent, and were surveyed and screened for HIV at baseline. Primary biological study outcomes are viral suppression among the HIV-infected and remaining free of HIV among HIV-uninfected women. A cohort of 496 FSWs was established and is currently under follow-up. Baseline HIV prevalence was 40.9% (203/496). Among HIV-infected FSWs, 30.5% (62/203) were previously aware of their HIV status; among those who were aware, 69.4% were on antiretroviral therapy (43/62); and for those on antiretroviral therapy, 69.8% (30/43) were virally suppressed. Factors associated with both HIV infection and viral suppression at baseline included community, age, number of clients, and substance use. Amount of money charged per client and having tested for sexually transmitted infection in the past 6 months were protective for HIV infection. Social cohesion among FSWs was protective for viral suppression. Significant gaps exist in HIV service coverage and progress toward reaching the 90-90-90 goals among FSWs in Iringa, Tanzania. Community empowerment approaches hold promise given the high HIV prevalence, limited services and stigma, discrimination, and violence.

  14. Program reference schedule baseline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-07-01

    This Program Reference Schedule Baseline (PRSB) provides the baseline Program-level milestones and associated schedules for the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program. It integrates all Program-level schedule-related activities. This schedule baseline will be used by the Director, Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), and his staff to monitor compliance with Program objectives. Chapter 1 includes brief discussions concerning the relationship of the PRSB to the Program Reference Cost Baseline (PRCB), the Mission Plan, the Project Decision Schedule, the Total System Life Cycle Cost report, the Program Management Information System report, the Program Milestone Review, annual budget preparation, and system element plans. Chapter 2 includes the identification of all Level 0, or Program-level, milestones, while Chapter 3 presents and discusses the critical path schedules that correspond to those Level 0 milestones

  15. Balancing energy, development and climate priorities in India. Current trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Dhar, S.; Halsnaes, K.

    2007-09-01

    This report gives a short introduction to the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing countries. Furthermore, the report analyses Indian energy, development and climate change, followed by an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. The focus is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. (BA)

  16. Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

    2011-01-01

    Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

  17. Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-12-01

    This report is the first in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multiyear research project to explore widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. More specifically, the EFS is designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in all major economic sectors as well as electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and the economic and environmental implications of widespread electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multiyear duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report released on its own timeframe.

  18. Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

  19. Baseline Preferences for Daily, Event-Driven, or Periodic HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis among Gay and Bisexual Men in the PRELUDE Demonstration Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanie J. Vaccher

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available IntroductionThe effectiveness of daily pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP is well established. However, there has been increasing interest in non-daily dosing schedules among gay and bisexual men (GBM. This paper explores preferences for PrEP dosing schedules among GBM at baseline in the PRELUDE demonstration project.Materials and methodsIndividuals at high-risk of HIV were enrolled in a free PrEP demonstration project in New South Wales, Australia, between November 2014 and April 2016. At baseline, they completed an online survey containing detailed behavioural, demographic, and attitudinal questions, including their ideal way to take PrEP: daily (one pill taken every day, event-driven (pills taken only around specific risk events, or periodic (daily dosing during periods of increased risk.ResultsOverall, 315 GBM (98% of study sample provided a preferred PrEP dosing schedule at baseline. One-third of GBM expressed a preference for non-daily PrEP dosing: 20% for event-driven PrEP, and 14% for periodic PrEP. Individuals with a trade/vocational qualification were more likely to prefer periodic to daily PrEP [adjusted odds ratio (aOR = 4.58, 95% confidence intervals (95% CI: (1.68, 12.49], compared to individuals whose highest level of education was high school. Having an HIV-positive main regular partner was associated with strong preference for daily, compared to event-driven PrEP [aOR = 0.20, 95% CI: (0.04, 0.87]. Participants who rated themselves better at taking medications were more likely to prefer daily over periodic PrEP [aOR = 0.39, 95% CI: (0.20, 0.76].DiscussionIndividuals’ preferences for PrEP schedules are associated with demographic and behavioural factors that may impact on their ability to access health services and information about PrEP and patterns of HIV risk. At the time of data collection, there were limited data available about the efficacy of non-daily PrEP schedules, and clinicians only recommended daily PrEP to

  20. Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

    2007-01-01

    -90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...

  1. Present status and future project on hadron physics with KEK proton synchrotron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masaike, Akira

    1984-01-01

    Recent experimental results on hadron physics using a 12 GeV proton synchrotron at KEK are presented. Several future projects which have been proposed as a post-shutdown program from 1985 including hypernuclear physics, physics with polarized beam and heavy ion beam are also reported. (author)

  2. History of optical theory of reflecting telescopes and implications for future projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Raymond N.

    1997-03-01

    This contribution, The History of Optical Theory of Reflecting Telescopes and Implications for Future Projects, is a shortened form of the Karl Schwarzschild lecture given in Bochum in September 1993. Some material has been added from an invited paper given in Padua in December 1992. For a full account, with figures and tables, the reader is referred to these two papers.

  3. Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Kunst, Anton E.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild

  4. Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Klijs (Bart); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan); A.E. Kunst (Anton)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractObjective Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This paper tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated to proximity to death

  5. Projecting future mortality in the Netherlands taking into account mortality delay and smoking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, F.; de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    Estimates of future mortality often prove inaccurate as conventional extrapolative mortality projection methods do not capture the impact of smoking nor the mortality delay: the shift in the age-at-death distribution towards older ages. The added value of incorporating information on smoking into

  6. Innovation projects and visions on the future : Ambition and commitment in the Agropark case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoes, Anne Charlotte; Regeer, Barbara; Zweekhorst, Marjolein

    2012-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Dutch agricultural policy focuses on changing the agricultural sector into a more sustainable sector. In this article we explore an Agropark visioning initiative and four Agropark innovation projects to provide further understanding in how visions on the future influence innovation

  7. Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwer, L.M.

    2013-01-01

    Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but

  8. Planned Change in Future Models of Project Follow Through: A Concept Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpkins, Edward; Brown, Asa

    The three chapters included in this paper establish a basis for organizing future implementations of Project Follow Through. Specifically, chapter 1 identifies four planning objectives for coordinating such programs. Emphasis is given to the need to focus on one fundamental, pervasive variable possibly accounting for program success: time…

  9. Outlook for coastal plain forests: a subregional report from the Southern Forest Futures Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kier Klepzig; Richard Shelfer; Zanethia Choice

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Coastal Plain consists of seven sections: the Northern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic, Peninsular Florida, Southern Gulf, Middle Gulf-East, Middle Gulf-West, and Western Gulf. It covers a large area, consists of a diverse array of habitats, and supports a diverse array of uses. This report presents forecasts from the Southern Forest Futures Project that are...

  10. Future Projection of Droughts over South Korea Using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byung Sik Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, a method widely used to analyze droughts related to climate change, does not consider variables related to temperature and is limited because it cannot consider changes in hydrological balance, such as evapotranspiration from climate change. If we were to consider only the future increase in precipitation from climate change, droughts may decrease. However, because usable water can diminish from an increase in evapotranspiration, it is important to research on projected droughts considering the amount of evapotranspiration along with projecting and evaluating potential droughts considering the impact of climate change. As such, this study evaluated the occurrence of droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI as a newly conceptualized drought index that is similar to SPI but includes the temperature variability. We extracted simulated future precipitation and temperature data (2011 - 2099 from the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP climate change scenario of IPCC AR5 to evaluate the impact of future climate change on the occurrence of droughts of South Korea. We analyzed the ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation of meteorological observatories nationwide. In addition, we calculated the SPEI related to drought in the process to evaluate the future occurrence of droughts of South Korea. To confirm validity of SPEI results, extreme indices were analyzed. This resulted in the notion that as we go further into the future, the precipitation increases. But because of an increase in evapotranspiration also from a rise in temperature and continued dryness, the severity of droughts is projected to exacerbate.

  11. Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zongci Zhao

    2011-01-01

    @@ As we know,the projections of future climate change including impacts and strategies in the IPCC Assessment Reports were based on global climate models with scenarios on various human activities.Global climate model simulations provide key inputs for climate change assessments. In this study,the main objective is to analyze if the projections of fu-ture climate change by global climate models are reli-able.Several workshops have been held on this issue,such as the IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi-model climate projections in January of 2010 (presided by the co-chairs of the IPCC WGI and WGII AR5),and the workshop of the combined global climate model group held by NCAR in June of 2010.

  12. The current shortage and future surplus of doctors: a projection of the future growth of the Japanese medical workforce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takata, Hideaki; Nagata, Hiroshi; Nogawa, Hiroki; Tanaka, Hiroshi

    2011-05-27

    Starting in the late 1980s, the Japanese government decreased the number of students accepted into medical school each year in order to reduce healthcare spending. The result of this policy is a serious shortage of doctors in Japan today, which has become a social problem in recent years. In an attempt to solve this problem, the Japanese government decided in 2007 to increase the medical student quota from 7625 to 8848. Furthermore, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), Japan's ruling party after the 2009 election, promised in their manifesto to increase the medical student quota to 1.5 times what it was in 2007, in order to raise the number of medical doctors to more than 3.0 per 1000 persons. It should be noted, however, that this rapid increase in the medical student quota may bring about a serious doctor surplus in the future, especially because the population of Japan is decreasing.The purpose of this research is to project the future growth of the Japanese medical doctor workforce from 2008 to 2050 and to forecast whether the proposed additional increase in the student quota will cause a doctor surplus. Simulation modeling of the Japanese medical workforce. Even if the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ fails, the number of practitioners is projected to increase from 286 699 (2.25 per 1000 persons) in 2008 to 365 533 (over the national numerical goal of 3.0 per 1000) in 2024. The number of practitioners per 1000 persons is projected to further increase to 3.10 in 2025, to 3.71 in 2035, and to 4.69 in 2050. If the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ is realized, the total workforce is projected to rise to 392 331 (3.29 per 1000 persons) in 2025, 464 296 (4.20 per 1,000 persons) in 2035, and 545 230 (5.73 per 1000 persons) in 2050. The plan to increase the medical student quota will bring about a serious doctor surplus in the long run.

  13. Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimmerstedt, Laura J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-01-02

    This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use service demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.

  14. FutureGen 2.0 Pipeline and Regional Carbon Capture Storage Project - Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burger, Chris [Patrick Engineering Inc., Lisle, IL (United States); Wortman, David [Patrick Engineering Inc., Lisle, IL (United States); Brown, Chris [Battelle Memorial Inst., Richland, WA (United States); Hassan, Syed [Gulf Interstate Engineering, Houston, TX (United States); Humphreys, Ken [Futuregen Industrial Alliance, Inc., Washington, D.C. (United States); Willford, Mark [Futuregen Industrial Alliance, Inc., Washington, D.C. (United States)

    2016-03-31

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) FutureGen 2.0 Program involves two projects: (1) the Oxy-Combustion Power Plant Project and (2) the CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project. This Final Technical Report is focused on the CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project. The FutureGen 2.0 CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project evolved from an initial siting and project definition effort in Phase I, into the Phase II activity consisting permitting, design development, the acquisition of land rights, facility design, and licensing and regulatory approvals. Phase II also progressed into construction packaging, construction procurement, and targeted early preparatory activities in the field. The CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project accomplishments were significant, and in some cases unprecedented. The engineering, permitting, legal, stakeholder, and commercial learnings substantially advance the nation’s understanding of commercial-scale CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers. Voluminous and significant information was obtained from the drilling and the testing program of the subsurface, and sophisticated modeling was performed that held up to a wide range of scrutiny. All designs progressed to the point of securing construction contracts or comfort letters attesting to successful negotiation of all contract terms and willing execution at the appropriate time all major project elements – pipeline, surface facilities, and subsurface – as well as operations. While the physical installation of the planned facilities did not proceed in part due to insufficient time to complete the project prior to the expiration of federal funding, the project met significant objectives prior to DOE’s closeout decision. Had additional time been available, there were no known, insurmountable obstacles that would have precluded successful construction and operation of the project. Due to the suspension of the project, site restoration activities were developed and the work was accomplished. The site restoration

  15. Future Projection of Ocean Wave Climate: Analysis of SST Impacts on Wave Climate Changes in the Western North Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Shimura, Tomoya; Mori, Nobuhito; Mase, Hajime

    2015-01-01

    Changes in ocean surface waves elicit a variety of impacts on coastal environments. To assess the future changes in the ocean surface wave climate, several future projections of global wave climate have been simulated in previous studies. However, previously there has been little discussion about the causes behind changes in the future wave climate and the differences between projections. The objective of this study is to estimate the future changes in mean wave climate and the sensitivity of...

  16. Intelum project: tackling the calorimetry challenge for future high-energy colliders

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2015-01-01

    Intelum is one of the CERN-coordinated projects funded under H2020. It aims to develop low-cost, radiation-hard scintillating and Cherenkov crystal and glass fibres for the next generation of calorimeter detectors for future high-energy experiments. This new technology could also have important applications in the medical imaging field.     Intelum project partners at the kick-off meeting held on 11 March at CERN.   Intelum is an H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Research and Innovation Staff Exchange (RISE) project coordinated by CERN. This project was initiated by the Crystal Clear Collaboration (CERN’s RD18 experiment), which has been developing inorganic scintillation materials for novel ionising-radiation detectors for 25 years. Intelum is an international consortium including fifteen institutes and companies from across western and eastern Europe, Japan and the USA, all of which are experts in crystal growth, scintillating mechanisms, radiation damage and dete...

  17. Projected future changes in vegetation in western North America in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaoyan, Jiang; Rauscher, Sara A.; Ringler, Todd D.; Lawrence, David M.; Williams, A. Park; Allen, Craig D.; Steiner, Allison L.; Cai, D. Michael; McDowell, Nate G.

    2013-01-01

    Rapid and broad-scale forest mortality associated with recent droughts, rising temperature, and insect outbreaks has been observed over western North America (NA). Climate models project additional future warming and increasing drought and water stress for this region. To assess future potential changes in vegetation distributions in western NA, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupled with its Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) was used under the future A2 emissions scenario. To better span uncertainties in future climate, eight sea surface temperature (SST) projections provided by phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were employed as boundary conditions. There is a broad consensus among the simulations, despite differences in the simulated climate trajectories across the ensemble, that about half of the needleleaf evergreen tree coverage (from 24% to 11%) will disappear, coincident with a 14% (from 11% to 25%) increase in shrubs and grasses by the end of the twenty-first century in western NA, with most of the change occurring over the latter half of the twenty-first century. The net impact is a ~6 GtC or about 50% decrease in projected ecosystem carbon storage in this region. The findings suggest a potential for a widespread shift from tree-dominated landscapes to shrub and grass-dominated landscapes in western NA because of future warming and consequent increases in water deficits. These results highlight the need for improved process-based understanding of vegetation dynamics, particularly including mortality and the subsequent incorporation of these mechanisms into earth system models to better quantify the vulnerability of western NA forests under climate change.

  18. Present status and future directions of the Mayo/IBM PACS project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Richard L.; Forbes, Glenn S.; Gehring, Dale G.; Salutz, James R.; Pavlicek, William

    1991-07-01

    This joint project began in 1988 and was motivated by the need to develop an alternative to the archival process in place at that time (magnetic tape) for magnetic resonance imaging and neurological computed tomography. In addition, this project was felt to be an important step in gaining the necessary clinical experience for the future implementation of various aspects of electronic imaging. The initial phase of the project was conceived and developed to prove the concept, test the fundamental components, and produce performance measurements for future work. The key functions of this phase centered on attachment of imaging equipment (GE Signa) and archival processes using a non-dedicated (institutionally supplied) local area network (LAN). Attachment of imaging equipment to the LAN was performed using commercially available devices (Ethernet, PS/2, Token Ring). Image data were converted to ACR/NEMA format with retention of the vendor specific header information. Performance measurements were encouraging and led to the design of following projects. The second phase has recently been concluded. The major features of this phase have been to greatly expand the network, put the network into clinical use, establish an efficient and useful viewing station, include diagnostic reports in the archive data, provide wide area network (WAN) capability via ISDN, and establish two-way real-time video between remote sites. This phase has heightened both departmental and institutional thought regarding various issues raised by electronic imaging. Much discussion regarding both present as well as future archival processes has occurred. The use of institutional LAN resources has proven to be adequate for the archival function examined thus far. Experiments to date have shown that use of dedicated resources will be necessary for retrieval activities at even a basic level. This report presents an overview of the background present status and future directions of the project.

  19. Computing the distribution of return levels of extreme warm temperatures for future climate projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pausader, M.; Parey, S.; Nogaj, M. [EDF/R and D, Chatou Cedex (France); Bernie, D. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2012-03-15

    In order to take into account uncertainties in the future climate projections there is a growing demand for probabilistic projections of climate change. This paper presents a methodology for producing such a probabilistic analysis of future temperature extremes. The 20- and 100-years return levels are obtained from that of the normalized variable and the changes in mean and standard deviation given by climate models for the desired future periods. Uncertainty in future change of these extremes is quantified using a multi-model ensemble and a perturbed physics ensemble. The probability density functions of future return levels are computed at a representative location from the joint probability distribution of mean and standard deviation changes given by the two combined ensembles of models. For the studied location, the 100-years return level at the end of the century is lower than 41 C with an 80% confidence. Then, as the number of model simulations is low to compute a reliable distribution, two techniques proposed in the literature (local pattern scaling and ANOVA) have been used to infer the changes in mean and standard deviation for the combinations of RCM and GCM which have not been run. The ANOVA technique leads to better results for the reconstruction of the mean changes, whereas the two methods fail to correctly infer the changes in standard deviation. As standard deviation change has a major impact on return level change, there is a need to improve the models and the different techniques regarding the variance changes. (orig.)

  20. Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — A glimpse into current and future projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative

  1. Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — A glimpse into current and future projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative.

  2. Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — a glimpse into current and future projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative.

  3. Expression of calpain-calpastatin system (CCS) member proteins in human lymphocytes of young and elderly individuals; pilot baseline data for the CALPACENT project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikosik, Anna; Foerster, Jerzy; Jasiulewicz, Aleksandra; Frąckowiak, Joanna; Colonna-Romano, Giuseppina; Bulati, Matteo; Buffa, Silvio; Martorana, Adriana; Caruso, Calogero; Bryl, Ewa; Witkowski, Jacek M

    2013-07-08

    Ubiquitous system of regulatory, calcium-dependent, cytoplasmic proteases - calpains - and their endogenous inhibitor - calpastatin - is implicated in the proteolytic regulation of activation, proliferation, and apoptosis of many cell types. However, it has not been thoroughly studied in resting and activated human lymphocytes yet, especially in relation to the subjects' ageing process. The CALPACENT project is an international (Polish-Italian) project aiming at verifying the hypothesis of the role of calpains in the function of peripheral blood immune cells of Polish (Pomeranian) and Italian (Sicilian) centenarians, apparently relatively preserved in comparison to the general elderly population. In this preliminary report we aimed at establishing and comparing the baseline levels of expression of μ- and m-calpain and calpastatin in various, phenotypically defined, populations of human peripheral blood lymphocytes for healthy elderly Sicilians and Poles, as compared to these values observed in young cohort. We have found significant differences in the expression of both μ- and m-calpain as well as calpastatin between various populations of peripheral blood lymphocytes (CD4+, CD8+ and CD19+), both between the age groups compared and within them. Interestingly, significantly higher amounts of μ- and m-calpains but not of calpastatin could be demonstrated in the CD4+CD28- and CD8+CD28- lymphocytes of old subjects (but not in the cells of young individuals), as compared to their CD28+ counterparts. Finally, decreased expression of both calpains in the elderly T cells is not related to the accumulation of effector/memory (CD45RO+) cells in the latter, as the expression of both calpains does not differ significantly between the naïve and memory T cells, while is significantly lower for elderly lymphocytes if both populations are taken separately. Observed differences in the amounts of CCS member proteins between various populations of lymphocytes of young and elderly

  4. Addressing the security of a future sustainable power system: The Danish SOSPO project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Guangya; Jóhannsson, Hjörtur; Lind, Morten

    2012-01-01

    evaluated to secure the operation from both transmission and distribution levels. The Danish SOSPO project is launched from 2012 targeting at the system security assessment in the control room for the future scenarios. Methods will be developed in this project to counteract with the future challenges......Current power systems have been undergoing in depth changes by the increasing use of renewable generations. At one hand, the grid is progressively more interconnected in order to collect the renewable generation from geographically dispersed places meanwhile reduce the risks of intermittency......; on the other, the power is increasingly generated at relative low voltage networks which in turn gives rise to new challenges in the conventional system design. The high governmental objective of greenhouse gas reduction provokes accelerating adoptation of the renewables. The effect of this has to be carefully...

  5. Risk Factors for Physical Domestic Violence in a High-Prevalence HIV Setting: Findings from Project Accept Baseline Data (HPTN-043).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevany, Sebastian; Woelk, Godfrey; Shade, Starley B; Kulich, Michal; Turan, Janet M; Chingono, Alfred; Morin, Stephen F

    2013-06-25

    Zimbabwe faces an acute generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic combined with rapidly deteriorating economic and political conditions, under which levels of domestic violence are on the rise. We aimed to determine possible demographic and behavioral factors associated with physical domestic violence in a rural setting in order to better inform both national and local domestic violence and HIV prevention policies. Using the Project Accept baseline data set, we selected demographic, socio-economic, and behavioral variables that might be associated with physical domestic violence based on a review of the literature. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out, and odds ratios (OR) were computed using logistic regression. Women reporting physical domestic violence were significantly more likely to report (i) a history of childhood domestic violence (OR=2.96, Peconomic status as measured by type of homestead (OR=1.4, P=0.04) than women who reported no experience of physical domestic violence. Married women were less likely to experience physical domestic violence than unmarried women (OR=0.65, P=0.011). Women at greatest risk of domestic violence include those with a personal history of violence or sexual abuse, multiple lifetime partners, and low or medium socio-economic status. Risk assessments and joint interventions for both domestic violence reduction and HIV prevention should target these population groups, which are effective both on the public health and global heath diplomacy levels.

  6. Project PANK: Rationale, study protocol and baseline results of a multidisciplinary school based intervention in children with cardiovascular and metabolic risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Batalau

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aims: Cardiovascular disease risk factors occur more frequently in children with obesity. Project PANK is a multidisciplinary school-based intervention lasting 6 months to improve BMI z-score, waist circumference (WC, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR, blood pressure (BP, nutrition, physical activity (PA, sedentary behaviour (SB, cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF, glucose, cholesterol, and triglycerides (TG. Methods/DesignA total of 77 children (7-10 years were recruited from an urban school. The protocol includes PA and SB individual meetings for children/parents; increasing school exercise; PA and SB lessons for children; A goal in the number of steps/day to accomplish in and after school. In nutrition, the protocol includes three individual meetings for children/parents and six lessons for children. ResultsPositive associations were found between the BMI Z-score, WC, and WHtR with TG; the BMI Z-score and WHtR with glucose; the light PA time and HDL-C; the vigorous and moderate-to-vigorous PA with CRF; the caloric intake and lipids with LDL-C, BMI z-score, WC, and WHtR. A negative association was found between CRF and TG. ConclusionBaseline results stress the importance of multidisciplinary school-based interventions. We hypothesized that PANK will improve blood variables, anthropometric measures, and BP, by changing food intake, enhancing PA and CRF, and decreasing SB.

  7. Applied aspects of content projecting of lexicology and phraseology teaching of future primary school teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Марія Михайлівна Греб

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the article it is considered the applied aspects of content projecting of lexicology and phraseology teaching of future primary school teachers basing on the principles of developing education. These principles are realized gradually (theoretical, practical, research stages and stage of independent work. Also these principles are guaranteed by the system of exercises and tasks of three levels of complexity which promotes increasing of motivation, self-development, self-realization of subjects of educational process

  8. High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

  9. Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hooidonk, Ruben; Maynard, Jeffrey; Tamelander, Jerker; Gove, Jamison; Ahmadia, Gabby; Raymundo, Laurie; Williams, Gareth; Heron, Scott F; Planes, Serge

    2016-12-21

    Increasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited. However, previous model-resolution projections (~1 × 1°) are too coarse to inform conservation planning. To meet the need for higher-resolution projections, we generated statistically downscaled projections (4-km resolution) for all coral reefs; these projections reveal high local-scale variation in ASB. Timing of ASB varies >10 years in 71 of the 87 countries and territories with >500 km 2 of reef area. Emissions scenario RCP4.5 represents lower emissions mid-century than will eventuate if pledges made following the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21) become reality. These pledges do little to provide reefs with more time to adapt and acclimate prior to severe bleaching conditions occurring annually. RCP4.5 adds 11 years to the global average ASB timing when compared to RCP8.5; however, >75% of reefs still experience ASB before 2070 under RCP4.5. Coral reef futures clearly vary greatly among and within countries, indicating the projections warrant consideration in most reef areas during conservation and management planning.

  10. Model Projections of Future Fluvial Sediment Delivery to Major Deltas Under Environmental Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darby, S. E.; Dunn, F.; Nicholls, R. J.; Cohen, S.; Zarfl, C.

    2017-12-01

    Deltas are important hot spots for climate change impacts on which over half a billion people live worldwide. Most of the world's deltas are sinking as a result of natural and anthropogenic subsidence and due to eustatic sea level rise. The ability to predict rates of delta aggradation is therefore critical to assessments of the extent to which sedimentation can potentially offset sea level rise, but our ability to make such predictions is severely hindered by a lack of insight into future trends of the fluvial sediment load supplied to their deltas by feeder watersheds. To address this gap we investigate fluvial sediment fluxes under future environmental change for a selection (47) of the world's major river deltas. Specifically, we employed the numerical model WBMsed to project future variations in mean annual fluvial sediment loads under a range of environmental change scenarios that account for changes in climate, socio-economics and dam construction. Our projections indicate a clear decrease (by 34 to 41% on average, depending on the specific scenario) in future fluvial sediment supply to most of the 47 deltas. These reductions in sediment delivery are driven primarily by anthropogenic disturbances, with reservoir construction being the most influential factor globally. Our results indicate the importance of developing new management strategies for reservoir construction and operation.

  11. Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Mubasher; Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan; Mustafa, Muhammad Raza Ul; Mahmood, Rashid; Jia, Shaofeng

    2017-10-01

    We present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most suitable GCMs (i.e. ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, and GFDL-ESM2M) and their mean ensemble (B3MMM) was used to project the future precipitation over the RRB. Historical (1976-2005) and future (2011-2100) precipitation ensembles of B3MMM were used to perturb the stochastically generated future precipitation over 25 rainfall stations in the river basin. The B3MMM exhibited a significant increase in precipitation during 2080s, up to 12 and 8% increase in annual precipitation over upper and lower RRB, respectively, under RCP8.5, and up to 7% increase in annual precipitation under RCP4.5. On the seasonal scale, Mann-Kendal trend test estimated statistically significant positive trend in the future precipitation during all seasons; except September to November when we only noted significant positive trend for the lower RRB under RCP4.5. Overall, at the end of the twenty-first century, an increase in annual precipitation is noteworthy in the whole RRB, with 7 and 10% increase in annual precipitation under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, respectively.

  12. Review on the Projections of Future Storminess over the North Atlantic European Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Mölter

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This is an overview of the results from previously published climate modeling studies reporting on projected aspects of future storminess over the North Atlantic European region (NAER in the period 2020–2190. Changes in storminess are summarized for seven subregions in the study area and rated by a categorical evaluation scheme that takes into account emission scenarios and modeling complexity in the reviewed studies. Although many of the reviewed studies reported an increase in the intensity of high-impact wind speed and extreme cyclone frequency in the second half of the 21st century, the projections of aspects of future storminess over the NAER differed regionally. There is broad consensus that the frequency and intensity of storms, cyclones, and high-impact wind speed will increase over Central and Western Europe, and these changes will probably have the potential to produce more damage. In contrast, future extratropical storminess over Southern Europe is very likely to decrease. For Northern and Eastern Europe the results of the evaluation are inconclusive, because there is an indication of increasing as well as decreasing development of the evaluated aspects of future storminess. Concerning the storm track, we found indications of a likely north- and eastward shift in most assessed studies. Results from three studies suggest a northeastward shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

  13. Utilization of paleoclimate results to validate projections of a future greenhouse warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.

    1990-01-01

    Paleoclimate data provide a rich source of information for testing projections of future greenhouse trends. This paper summarizes the present state-of-the-art as to assessments of two important climate problems. (1) Validation of climate models - The same climate models that have been used to make greenhouse forecasts have also been used for paleoclimate simulations. Comparisons of model results and observations indicate some impressive successes but also some cases where there are significant divergences between models and observations. However, special conditions associated with the impressive successes could lead to a false confidence in the models; disagreements are a topic of greater concern. It remains to be determined whether the disagreements are due to model limitations or uncertainties in geologic data. (2) Role of CO 2 as a significant climate feedback: Paleoclimate studies indicate that the climate system is generally more sensitive than our ability to model it. Addition or subtraction of CO 2 leads to a closer agreement between models and observations. In this respect paleoclimate results in general support the conclusion that CO 2 is an important climate feedback, with the magnitude of the feedback approximately comparable to the sensitivity of present climate models. If the CO 2 projections are correct, comparison of the future warming with past warm periods indicate that there may be no geologic analogs for a future warming; the future greenhouse climate may represent a unique climate realization in earth history

  14. Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

    2017-10-01

    Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.

  15. Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de, E-mail: fabio@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Nuclear and Engineering Center; Imakuma, Kengo, E-mail: kimakuma@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Information Technology Development Dept.

    2011-07-01

    This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

  16. Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de; Imakuma, Kengo

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

  17. Superconductors and novel ceramics for future communication technologies. Project: Cooler and cryotechnology. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haefner, H.U.; Rolff, N.; Thummes, G.

    2004-02-01

    The project involved the production of a 6W rate at 77K stirling chiller for a HTS telecommunication experiment on the 'International Space Station' (project partner Bosch Telecom) and the production of a prototype long-lived stirling pulsed tube chiller of 10W rate at 77K for future applications in telecommunication. The projected was terminated prematurely. The following results were obtained: 1. The low-capacity chiller 'Mono-Kaltfinger' (stirling cold finger with displacement piston) achieved up to 5.3% COP at 80 K. 2. The chilling capacity was 10 W at 80 K for a maximum compressor uptake of 250 W. 3. An efficient pulsed tube chiller was constructed, as well as 4. A long-lived compressor with flexure bearings. (orig.) [de

  18. DairyBISS Baseline report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buizer, N.N.; Berhanu, Tinsae; Murutse, Girmay; Vugt, van S.M.

    2015-01-01

    This baseline report of the Dairy Business Information Service and Support (DairyBISS) project presents the findings of a baseline survey among 103 commercial farms and 31 firms and advisors working in the dairy value chain. Additional results from the survey among commercial dairy farms are

  19. The California Baseline Methane Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duren, R. M.; Thorpe, A. K.; Hopkins, F. M.; Rafiq, T.; Bue, B. D.; Prasad, K.; Mccubbin, I.; Miller, C. E.

    2017-12-01

    The California Baseline Methane Survey is the first systematic, statewide assessment of methane point source emissions. The objectives are to reduce uncertainty in the state's methane budget and to identify emission mitigation priorities for state and local agencies, utilities and facility owners. The project combines remote sensing of large areas with airborne imaging spectroscopy and spatially resolved bottom-up data sets to detect, quantify and attribute emissions from diverse sectors including agriculture, waste management, oil and gas production and the natural gas supply chain. Phase 1 of the project surveyed nearly 180,000 individual facilities and infrastructure components across California in 2016 - achieving completeness rates ranging from 20% to 100% per emission sector at < 5 meters spatial resolution. Additionally, intensive studies of key areas and sectors were performed to assess source persistence and variability at times scales ranging from minutes to months. Phase 2 of the project continues with additional data collection in Spring and Fall 2017. We describe the survey design and measurement, modeling and analysis methods. We present initial findings regarding the spatial, temporal and sectoral distribution of methane point source emissions in California and their estimated contribution to the state's total methane budget. We provide case-studies and lessons learned about key sectors including examples where super-emitters were identified and mitigated. We summarize challenges and recommendations for future methane research, inventories and mitigation guidance within and beyond California.

  20. Chinese villages and their sustainable future: the European Union-China-Research Project "SUCCESS".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumreicher, Heidi

    2008-04-01

    China has 800,000 villages-one person out of seven on the globe is living in a Chinese rural settlement. Yet the global discussions about the situation in China is currently characterised by a disproportionate focus on the development of towns and until now circumstances have generally been neglected in the rural areas, where 70% of the Chinese population is still living. Within the 5 years of the SUCCESS project research, this set of actual problems has been considered and analysed under the principle of sustainability: "What to maintain?" "What to change?" were the overall research questions asked in the SUCCESS project; the researchers were looking for answers under a sustainability regime, respecting the need to raise the quality of life in the villages. Several interweaving processes were used to achieve results: the inter-disciplinary research process between many areas of expertise, the trans-disciplinary process between the researchers and the Chinese villagers, and a negotiation process that made the connection between these two processes. The introduction describes the basic sustainability definition that was orienting the whole study. The innovation lays mostly in the methodology: the inter-disciplinary research co-operation related to practice and to involving the affected communities is needed to manage the significant and growing imbalances between urban and rural areas regarding their sustainability. In the transdisciplinary work, the project developed "village future sentences" that describe the local outcome of the research as one step towards better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms that could lead to a sustainable future, and they also managed to start sustainability processes in the case study sites. The integrated approach of the project helped generating future scenarios for these villages covering all aspects of their development, including urban design issues. Out of these scenarios, the villages developed small projects that could

  1. Irradiation project of SiC/SiC fuel pin 'INSPIRE': Status and future plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohyama, Akira; Kishimoto, Hirotatsu

    2015-01-01

    After the March 11 Disaster in East-Japan, Research and Development towards Ensuring Nuclear Safety Enhancement for LWR becomes a top priority R and D in nuclear energy policy of Japan. The role of high temperature non-metallic materials, such as SiC/SiC, is becoming important for the advanced nuclear reactor systems. SiC fibre reinforced SiC composite has been recognised to be the most attractive option for the future, now, METI fund based project, INSPIRE, has been launched as 5-year termed project at OASIS in Muroran Institute of Technology aiming at early realisation of this system. INSPIRE is the irradiation project of SiC/SiC fuel pins aiming to accumulate material, thermal, irradiation effect data of NITE-SiC/SiC in BWR environment. Nuclear fuel inserted SiC/SiC fuel pins are planned to be installed in the Halden reactor. The project includes preparing the NITE-SiC/SiC tubes, joining of end caps, preparation of rigs to control the irradiation environment to BWR condition and the instruments to measure the condition of rigs and pins in operation. Also, basic neutron irradiation data will be accumulated by SiC/SiC coupon samples currently under irradiation in BR2. The output from this project may present the potentiality of NITE-SiC/SiC fuel cladding with the first stage fuel-cladding interaction. (authors)

  2. Risk factors for physical domestic violence in a high-prevalence HIV setting: findings from Project Accept baseline data (HPTN-043

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Kevany

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Zimbabwe faces an acute generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic combined with rapidly deteriorating economic and political conditions, under which levels of domestic violence are on the rise. We aimed to determine possible demographic and behavioral factors associated with physical domestic violence in a rural setting in order to better inform both national and local domestic violence and HIV prevention policies. Using the Project Accept baseline data set, we selected demographic, socio-economic, and behavioral variables that might be associated with physical domestic violence based on a review of the literature. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out, and odds ratios (OR were computed using logistic regression. Women reporting physical domestic violence were significantly more likely to report (i a history of childhood domestic violence (OR=2.96, P<0.001, (ii two or more lifetime partners (OR=1.94, P<0.001, (iii some form of sexual abuse as a child (OR=1.82, not significant, and (iv low or medium socio-economic status as measured by type of homestead (OR=1.4, P=0.04 than women who reported no experience of physical domestic violence. Married women were less likely to experience physical domestic violence than unmarried women (OR=0.65, P=0.011. Women at greatest risk of domestic violence include those with a personal history of violence or sexual abuse, multiple lifetime partners, and low or medium socio-economic status. Risk assessments and joint interventions for both domestic violence reduction and HIV prevention should target these population groups, which are effective both on the public health and global heath diplomacy levels.

  3. Future Urban Climate Projection in A Tropical Megacity Based on Global and Regional Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

    2017-12-01

    Cities in Asian developing countries experience rapid transformation in urban morphology and energy consumption, which correspondingly affects urban climate. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) in the tropic Jakarta Greater Area was conducted. Simulation was conducted during the dry months from 2006 to 2015 and agreed well with point and satellite observation. The same technology coupled with pseudo global warming (PGW) method based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario 2.6 and 8.5 was conducted to produce futuristic climate condition in 2050. Projected urban morphology and AHE in 2050s were constructed using regional urban growing model with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) among its inputs. Compact future urban configuration, based on SSP1, was coupled to RCP2.6. Unrestrained future urban configuration, based on SSP3, was coupled to RCP8.5. Results show that background warming from RCP 2.6 and 8.5 will increase background temperature by 0.55°C and 1.2°C throughout the region, respectively. Future projection of urban sprawl results to an additional 0.3°C and 0.5°C increase on average, with maximum increase of 1.1°C and 1.3°C due to urban effect for RCP2.6/compact and RCP8.5/unrestrained, respectively. Higher moisture content in urban area is indicated in the future due to higher evaporation. Change in urban roughness is likely affect slower wind velocity in urban area and sea breeze front inland penetration the future compare with current condition. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

  4. International research and development projects in nuclear energy: Experience and future prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strohl, P.

    1983-01-01

    From the very beginning nuclear energy appeared as a fruitful field for international co-operation and particularly for international projects and joint ventures. By pooling scientific, technical and financial resources, the participating countries sought to promote the development of technology and the transition of nuclear energy to the industrial stage. Governments and therefore intergovernmental organizations were the driving force behind the establishment of joint projects in various R and D sectors, often in association with industry and private research institutes. The situation changed considerably from the end of the 1960s onwards. Despite some remarkable technical achievements, international co-operation did not develop to the extent predicted at the outset. Industry took over in the exploitation of proven technologies, and industrial co-operation agreements have become an important feature in some key areas of nuclear energy. This trend raises questions as to the future of joint R and D projects organized through intergovernmental co-operation. Although such projects are still very useful, they tend to be concentrated in those few sectors which continue to be of direct interest to the Governments; for instance, fundamental research, radioactive waste management and nuclear safety. The position of nuclear energy has changed, and the benefits to be drawn from this form of international co-operation must be critically re-assessed accordingly. While advantage to be gained from international projects for countries which are the most advanced in the development of nuclear energy is not the same as it was at the beginning, the transfer of experience and knowledge to less advanced countries is still the main concern of projects dealing with safety and regulatory matters. The experience thus gained provides a very useful insight into the legal and institutional framework of joint projects

  5. Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Taylor

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF, a relatively recently emerged zoonosis endemic to large parts of sub-Saharan Africa that has the potential to spread beyond the continent, have profound health and socio-economic impacts, particularly in communities where resilience is already low. Here output from a new, dynamic disease model [the Liverpool RVF (LRVF model], driven by downscaled, bias-corrected climate change data from an ensemble of global circulation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project run according to two radiative forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5], is combined with results of a spatial assessment of social vulnerability to the disease in eastern Africa. The combined approach allowed for analyses of spatial and temporal variations in the risk of RVF to the end of the current century. Results for both scenarios highlight the high-risk of future RVF outbreaks, including in parts of eastern Africa to date unaffected by the disease. The results also highlight the risk of spread from/to countries adjacent to the study area, and possibly farther afield, and the value of considering the geography of future projections of disease risk. Based on the results, there is a clear need to remain vigilant and to invest not only in surveillance and early warning systems, but also in addressing the socio-economic factors that underpin social vulnerability in order to mitigate, effectively, future impacts.

  6. Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN over Peninsular Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Syafrina

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF. New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081–2100. The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10–40 years.

  7. Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.

    2014-09-01

    A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

  8. A replication of the 5-7 day dream-lag effect with comparison of dreams to future events as control for baseline matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blagrove, Mark; Henley-Einion, Josie; Barnett, Amanda; Edwards, Darren; Heidi Seage, C

    2011-06-01

    The dream-lag effect refers to there being, after the frequent incorporation of memory elements from the previous day into dreams (the day-residue), a lower incorporation of memory elements from 2 to 4 days before the dream, but then an increased incorporation of memory elements from 5 to 7 days before the dream. Participants (n=8, all female) kept a daily diary and a dream diary for 14 days and then rated the level of matching between every dream report and every daily diary record. Baseline matching was assessed by comparing all dream reports to all diary records for days that occurred after the dream. A significant dream-lag effect for the 5-7 day period, compared to baseline and compared to the 2-4 day period, was found. This may indicate a memory processing function for sleep, which the dream content may reflect. Participants' and three independent judges' mean ratings also confirmed a significant day-residue effect. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Long-term trends in U.S. gas transportation: 1992 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, June 1992. Gas Research Insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lihn, M.L.; Woods, T.J.

    1992-06-01

    The paper summarizes the trends in lower-48 gas transportation in the 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand to 2010, which has been adopted as a major input to the planning cycle leading to the development of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) 1993 research and development program. The 1992 projection presents an optimistic outlook for the U.S. gas industry in which increased gas supply can be obtained at competitive prices

  10. Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur, E-mail: mdmamunur.rashid@mymail.unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Beecham, Simon, E-mail: simon.beecham@unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Chowdhury, Rezaul K., E-mail: rezaulkabir@uaeu.ac.ae [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, PO Box 15551 (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-10-15

    A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages. - Highlights: • A generalized linear model was used for multi-site daily rainfall downscaling. • Rainfall was downscaled from CMIP5 GCM outputs. • Two multi-model ensemble approaches were used. • Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping

  11. Imagining the personal past: Episodic counterfactuals compared to episodic memories and episodic future projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Özbek, Müge; Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2017-01-01

    Episodic counterfactuals are imagined events that could have happened, but did not happen, in a person’s past. Such imagined past events are important aspects of mental life, affecting emotions, decisions, and behaviors. However, studies examining their phenomenological characteristics and content...... are few. Here we introduced a new method to systematically compare self-generated episodic counterfactuals to self-generated episodic memories and future projections with regard to their phenomenological characteristics (e.g., imagery, emotional valence, rehearsal) and content (e.g., reference to cultural...... distance. The findings show that imagined events are phenomenologically different from memories of experienced events, consistent with reality monitoring theory, and that imagined future events are different from both actual and imagined past events, consistent with some theories of motivation....

  12. The Global Climate and Energy Project at Stanford University: Fundamental Research Towards Future Energy Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milne, Jennifer L.; Sassoon, Richard E.; Hung, Emilie; Bosshard, Paolo; Benson, Sally M.

    The Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP), at Stanford University, invests in research with the potential to lead to energy technologies with lower greenhouse gas emissions than current energy technologies. GCEP is sponsored by four international companies, ExxonMobil, GE, Schlumberger, and Toyota and supports research programs in academic institutions worldwide. Research falls into the broad areas of carbon based energy systems, renewables, electrochemistry, and the electric grid. Within these areas research efforts are underway that are aimed at achieving break-throughs and innovations that greatly improve efficiency, performance, functionality and cost of many potential energy technologies of the future including solar, batteries, fuel cells, biofuels, hydrogen storage and carbon capture and storage. This paper presents a summary of some of GCEP's activities over the past 7 years with current research areas of interest and potential research directions in the near future.

  13. The future is no longer what it used to be. Managing health telematics projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demeester, M; Beuscart, R

    1997-09-01

    Future used to mean global progress and convergence of science and technology and society. Today, we observe the decoupling of the two poles of knowledge formation and application (i.e. science and technology, and culture and society, respectively) and also fierce confrontation between them. The key issue to reconcile the two poles is to re-invent the link between them. The new future lies in the development of mental and technical capacities for change and the creation of new forms of solidarity. We propose, as a general attitude, to reactivate and develop the four principles of efficacy-effectiveness-efficiency, hospitality, responsibility and pertinence. Translated into driving forces for the development of health care telematic projects, they amount to the acceptance of and capacity for enterprise-wide solutions, hospitality and capacity to acquire outside knowledge, self-managed, multi-functional team work spirit, reengineering mentality to achieve pertinent technico-cultural solutions.

  14. Projecting Sexual and Injecting HIV Risks into Future Outcomes with Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.; Zule, William A.

    Longitudinal studies of health outcomes for HIV could be very costly cumbersome and not representative of the risk population. Conversely, cross-sectional approaches could be representative but rely on the retrospective information to estimate prevalence and incidence. We present an Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach where we use behavioral data from a cross-sectional representative study and project the behavior into the future so that the risks of acquiring HIV could be studied in a dynamical/temporal sense. We show how the blend of behavior and contact network factors (sexual, injecting) play the role in the risk of future HIV acquisition and time till obtaining HIV. We show which subjects are the most likely persons to get HIV in the next year, and whom they are likely to infect. We examine how different behaviors are related to the increase or decrease of HIV risks and how to estimate the quantifiable risk measures such as survival HIV free.

  15. Planning and managing future space facility projects. [management by objectives and group dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieber, J. E.; Wilhelm, J. A.; Tanner, T. A.; Helmreich, R. L.; Burgenbauch, S. F.

    1979-01-01

    To learn how ground-based personnel of a space project plan and organize their work and how such planning and organizing relate to work outcomes, longitudinal study of the management and execution of the Space Lab Mission Development Test 3 (SMD 3) was performed at NASA Ames Research Center. A view of the problems likely to arise in organizations and some methods of coping with these problems are presented as well as the conclusions and recommendations that pertain strictly to SMD 3 management. Emphasis is placed on the broader context of future space facility projects and additional problems that may be anticipated. A model of management that may be used to facilitate problem solving and communication - management by objectives (MBO) is presented. Some problems of communication and emotion management that MBO does not address directly are considered. Models for promoting mature, constructive and satisfying emotional relationships among group members are discussed.

  16. Assessing Risk in Costing High-energy Accelerators: from Existing Projects to the Future Linear Collider

    CERN Document Server

    Lebrun, Philippe

    2010-01-01

    High-energy accelerators are large projects funded by public money, developed over the years and constructed via major industrial contracts both in advanced technology and in more conventional domains such as civil engineering and infrastructure, for which they often constitute one-of markets. Assessing their cost, as well as the risk and uncertainty associated with this assessment is therefore an essential part of project preparation and a justified requirement by the funding agencies. Stemming from the experience with large circular colliders at CERN, LEP and LHC, as well as with the Main Injector, the Tevatron Collider Experiments and Accelerator Upgrades, and the NOvA Experiment at Fermilab, we discuss sources of cost variance and derive cost risk assessment methods applicable to the future linear collider, through its two technical approaches for ILC and CLIC. We also address disparities in cost risk assessment imposed by regional differences in regulations, procedures and practices.

  17. Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainali, Kumar P; Warren, Dan L; Dhileepan, Kunjithapatham; McConnachie, Andrew; Strathie, Lorraine; Hassan, Gul; Karki, Debendra; Shrestha, Bharat B; Parmesan, Camille

    2015-12-01

    Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium

  18. Autonoetic consciousness: Reconsidering the role of episodic memory in future-oriented self-projection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Stanley B

    2016-01-01

    Following the seminal work of Ingvar (1985. "Memory for the future": An essay on the temporal organization of conscious awareness. Human Neurobiology, 4, 127-136), Suddendorf (1994. The discovery of the fourth dimension: Mental time travel and human evolution. Master's thesis. University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand), and Tulving (1985. Memory and consciousness. Canadian Psychology/PsychologieCanadienne, 26, 1-12), exploration of the ability to anticipate and prepare for future contingencies that cannot be known with certainty has grown into a thriving research enterprise. A fundamental tenet of this line of inquiry is that future-oriented mental time travel, in most of its presentations, is underwritten by a property or an extension of episodic recollection. However, a careful conceptual analysis of exactly how episodic memory functions in this capacity has yet to be undertaken. In this paper I conduct such an analysis. Based on conceptual, phenomenological, and empirical considerations, I conclude that the autonoetic component of episodic memory, not episodic memory per se, is the causally determinative factor enabling an individual to project him or herself into a personal future.

  19. Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2017-04-01

    Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

  20. Projecting the Future for Design Science Research: An Action‐Case Based Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baskerville, Richard; Pries-Heje, Jan

    2015-01-01

    and theories appears to be a key challenge. In this paper we commence with a DESRIST paper from 2012 that instantiated design principles in an artifact for a bank. That paper included plans and techniques for future use of its principles (propagation), including prescriptions for a five-phase adoption process...... or theories have stimulated many actual projections. We demonstrate these concepts in a case study of propagation: a chemical manufacturer and service provider that adopted the design principles arising from that 2012 DESRIST banking-based design science research. We conclude that generalizability is too well...

  1. Transportation Energy Futures Series. Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Aden, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Warner, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Inman, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Simpkins, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Argo, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-03-01

    The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  2. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, M.; Mai, T.; Newes, E.; Aden, A.; Warner, E.; Uriarte, C.; Inman, D.; Simpkins, T.; Argo, A.

    2013-03-01

    The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  3. Earth BioGenome Project: Sequencing life for the future of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewin, Harris A; Robinson, Gene E; Kress, W John; Baker, William J; Coddington, Jonathan; Crandall, Keith A; Durbin, Richard; Edwards, Scott V; Forest, Félix; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Goldstein, Melissa M; Grigoriev, Igor V; Hackett, Kevin J; Haussler, David; Jarvis, Erich D; Johnson, Warren E; Patrinos, Aristides; Richards, Stephen; Castilla-Rubio, Juan Carlos; van Sluys, Marie-Anne; Soltis, Pamela S; Xu, Xun; Yang, Huanming; Zhang, Guojie

    2018-04-24

    Increasing our understanding of Earth's biodiversity and responsibly stewarding its resources are among the most crucial scientific and social challenges of the new millennium. These challenges require fundamental new knowledge of the organization, evolution, functions, and interactions among millions of the planet's organisms. Herein, we present a perspective on the Earth BioGenome Project (EBP), a moonshot for biology that aims to sequence, catalog, and characterize the genomes of all of Earth's eukaryotic biodiversity over a period of 10 years. The outcomes of the EBP will inform a broad range of major issues facing humanity, such as the impact of climate change on biodiversity, the conservation of endangered species and ecosystems, and the preservation and enhancement of ecosystem services. We describe hurdles that the project faces, including data-sharing policies that ensure a permanent, freely available resource for future scientific discovery while respecting access and benefit sharing guidelines of the Nagoya Protocol. We also describe scientific and organizational challenges in executing such an ambitious project, and the structure proposed to achieve the project's goals. The far-reaching potential benefits of creating an open digital repository of genomic information for life on Earth can be realized only by a coordinated international effort.

  4. Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudeepkumar, B. L.; Babu, C. A.; Varikoden, Hamza

    2018-02-01

    The effect of global climate change on Indian summer monsoon has been analysed with special emphasis on active-break cycle. The changes in intensity and duration of active and break monsoon conditions towards the end of the century are studied by using 850 hPa zonal circulations. The analysis is carried out using twenty year climatology of historical period (1986-2005) and future projections (2080-2099) simulated as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Models are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The models that effectively capture the circulation pattern of monsoon (JJAS) are considered for assessing the future climate in RCP 4.5 scenario. They are CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR. During the southwest monsoon period, the ensemble mean of models projects a strengthening of the wind speed towards north (north of 15°N) and weakening to the southern region (especially south of 12°N) which facilitates wetting of northern Indian regions and drying of southern peninsular regions. In the case of active-break conditions, the active spells are found to be strengthening over northern India and weakening over the peninsular India, the break spells intensify over southern tip of peninsular India indicating intense breaks. Increased propensity of short intense active days and decreased propensity of long active days are also projected by the models. The number of break spells does not show any significant changes.

  5. Future projection of design storms using a GCM-informed weather generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    KIm, T. W.; Wi, S.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Valdés, J. B.

    2017-12-01

    The rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are one of the most common tools used to provide planners with a description of the frequency of extreme rainfall events of various intensities and durations. Therefore deriving appropriate IDF estimates is important to avoid malfunctions of water structures that cause huge damage. Evaluating IDF estimates in the context of climate change has become more important because projections from climate models suggest that the frequency of intense rainfall events will increase in the future due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the Bartlett-Lewis (BL) stochastic rainfall model is employed to generate annual maximum series of various sub-daily durations for test basins of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) project, and to derive the IDF curves in the context of climate changes projected by the North American Regional Climate Change (NARCCAP) models. From our results, it has been found that the observed annual rainfall maximum series is reasonably represented by the synthetic annual maximum series generated by the BL model. The observed data is perturbed by change factors to incorporate the NARCCAP climate change scenarios into the IDF estimates. The future IDF curves show a significant difference from the historical IDF curves calculated for the period 1968-2000. Overall, the projected IDF curves show an increasing trend over time. The impacts of changes in extreme rainfall on the hydrologic response of the MOPEX basins are also explored. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS-NH-2015-79] through the Disaster and Safety Management Institute funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government.

  6. ACSEPT a European project for a new step in the future demonstration of advanced fuel processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourg, S.; Hill, C.; Caravaca, C.; Espartero, A.; Rhodes, C.; Taylor, R.; Harrison, M.; EKBERG, C.; GEIST, A.; Modolo, G.; Cassayre, L.; Malmbeck, R.; De Angelis, G.; Bouvet, S.; Klaassen, F.

    2010-01-01

    For more than fifteen years, a European scientific community has joined its effort to develop and optimise processes for the partitioning of actinides from fission products. In an international context of 'nuclear renaissance', the upcoming of a new generation of nuclear reactor (Gen IV) will require the development of associated advanced closed fuel cycles which answer the needs of a sustainable nuclear energy: the minimization of the production of long lived radioactive waste but also the optimization of the use of natural resources with an increased resistance to proliferation. Actually, Partitioning and Transmutation (P and T), associated to a multi-recycling of all transuranics (TRUs), should play a key role in the development of this sustainable nuclear energy. By joining together 34 Partners coming from European universities, nuclear research bodies and major industrial players in a multidisciplinary consortium, the FP7 EURATOM-Fission Collaborative Project ACSEPT (Actinide recycling by Separation and Transmutation), started in 2008 for four year duration, provides the sound basis and fundamental improvements for future demonstrations of fuel treatment in strong connection with fuel fabrication techniques. Consistently with potentially viable recycling strategies, ACSEPT therefore provides a structured R and D framework to develop chemical separation processes compatible with fuel fabrication techniques, with a view to their future demonstration at the pilot level. ACSEPT is organized into three technical domains: (i) Considering technically mature aqueous separation processes, ACSEPT works to optimize and select the most promising ones dedicated either to actinide partitioning or to group actinide separation. (ii) Concerning high temperature pyrochemical separation processes, ACSEPT focuses on the enhancement of the two reference cores of process selected within previous projects. R and D efforts are now devoted to key scientific and technical points

  7. Capability and dependency in the Newcastle 85+ cohort study. Projections of future care needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagger, Carol; Collerton, Joanna C; Davies, Karen; Kingston, Andrew; Robinson, Louise A; Eccles, Martin P; von Zglinicki, Thomas; Martin-Ruiz, Carmen; James, Oliver F W; Kirkwood, Tom B L; Bond, John

    2011-05-04

    Little is known of the capabilities of the oldest old, the fastest growing age group in the population. We aimed to estimate capability and dependency in a cohort of 85 year olds and to project future demand for care. Structured interviews at age 85 with 841 people born in 1921 and living in Newcastle and North Tyneside, UK who were permanently registered with participating general practices. Measures of capability included were self-reported activities of daily living (ADL), timed up and go test (TUG), standardised mini-mental state examination (SMMSE), and assessment of urinary continence in order to classify interval-need dependency. To project future demand for care the proportion needing 24-hour care was applied to the 2008 England and Wales population projections of those aged 80 years and over by gender. Of participants, 62% (522/841) were women, 77% (651/841) lived in standard housing, 13% (106/841) in sheltered housing and 10% (84/841) in a care home. Overall, 20% (165/841) reported no difficulty with any of the ADLs. Men were more capable in performing ADLs and more independent than women. TUG validated self-reported ADLs. When classified by 'interval of need' 41% (332/810) were independent, 39% (317/810) required help less often than daily, 12% (94/810) required help at regular times of the day and 8% (67/810) required 24-hour care. Of care-home residents, 94% (77/82) required daily help or 24-hour care. Future need for 24-hour care for people aged 80 years or over in England and Wales is projected to increase by 82% from 2010 to 2030 with a demand for 630,000 care-home places by 2030. This analysis highlights the diversity of capability and levels of dependency in this cohort. A remarkably high proportion remain independent, particularly men. However a significant proportion of this population require 24-hour care at home or in care homes. Projections for the next 20 years suggest substantial increases in the number requiring 24-hour care due to

  8. 2016 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) - Webinar Presentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley; Kurup, Parthiv; Hand, Maureen; Feldman, David; Sigrin, Benjamin; Lantz, Eric; Stehly, Tyler; Augustine, Chad; Turchi, Craig; Porro, Gian; O' Connor, Patrick; Waldoch, Connor

    2016-09-13

    This deck was presented for the 2016 Annual Technology Baseline Webinar. The presentation describes the Annual Technology Baseline, which is a compilation of current and future cost and performance data for electricity generation technologies.

  9. Projected changes in the future distribution and production of sessile oak forests near the xeric limit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulyás, Krisztina; Berki, Imre; Veperdi, Gábor

    2017-04-01

    As a result of regional climate change, most European countries are experiencing an increase in mean annual temperature and CO2 concentration and a decrease in mean annual precipitation. In low-elevation areas in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is a limiting factor, the projected climate change threatens the health, production, and potential distribution of forest ecosystems. The intensive summer droughts and commonly occurring extreme weather events create negative influences that cause health declines, changes in yield potential, and tree mortality. Due to the observed damages, attention has been focused on these problems. The impacts of climatic extremes cause difficulties in forest management; these difficulties occur more frequently in Hungary, which is a region that is the most sensitive to climatic extremes. Regional climate model simulations project that the frequency of extremely high temperatures and long-term dry periods will increase; both of these factors have negative effects on future tree species distribution and production. Thus, the aim of our study is to utilize the sessile oak (Quercus petraea) as a climate indicator tree species to investigate potential future distribution and estimate changes in growth trends. For future spatial distribution, we used the Fuzzy membership distribution model in a new Decision Support System (DSS) which was developed for the Hungarian forestry and agricultural sectors. Through study techniques we can employ DSS, which contains various environmental layers (topography, vegetation, past and projected future climate, soils, and hydrology), to create probability distribution maps. The results, based on 12 regional climate model simulations (www.ensembles-eu.org), show that the area of sessile oak forests is shrinking continuously and will continue to do so to the end of the 21st century. For future production estimations, we analysed intensive long-term growth monitoring network plots that were established in

  10. Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P; Kunst, Anton E

    2011-04-01

    Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild disability is not. Using data from the GLOBE study (Gezondheid en Levensomstandigheden Bevolking Eindhoven en omstreken), the association of three levels of self-reported disabilities in activities of daily living with age and proximity to death was studied using logistic regression models. Regression estimates were used to estimate the number of life years with disability for life spans of 75 and 85 years. Odds ratios of 0.976 (not significant) for mild disability, 1.137 for moderate disability, and 1.231 for severe disability showed a stronger effect of proximity to death for more severe levels of disability. A 10-year increase of life span was estimated to result in a substantial expansion of mild disability (4.6 years) compared with a small expansion of moderate (0.7 years) and severe (0.9 years) disability. These findings support the theory of a dynamic equilibrium. Projections of the future burden of disability could be substantially improved by connecting to this theory and incorporating information on proximity to death. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress, uncertainties and research needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Yu, Weiwei; Tong, Shilu

    2015-02-01

    Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Long-term trends in U.S. gas supply and prices: 1991 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, April 1991. Gas research insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.J.

    1991-04-01

    The report summarizes the gas supply and price outlook in the 1991 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand. Projected U.S. gas production, gas imports, and other sources of gas supply are discussed along with the sensitivity of the outlook to changes in price expectations. The critical uncertainties and issues affecting the gas supply and price outlook are discussed. Appendixes include a comparison of the 1991 and the 1989 projections of gas supply and price trends; and a description of the GRI Hydrocarbon Model

  13. Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

    2008-12-01

    Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise

  14. Impact of choice of future climate change projection on growth chamber experimental outcomes: a preliminary study in potato

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leisner, Courtney P.; Wood, Joshua C.; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S.; Robin Buell, C.; Winkler, Julie A.

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.

  15. Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.

    2013-12-01

    Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.

  16. Changes in record-breaking temperature events in China and projections for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Hanqing; Liu, Chun; Lu, Yanyu; He, Dongyan; Tian, Hong

    2017-06-01

    As global warming intensifies, more record-breaking (RB) temperature events are reported in many places around the world where temperatures are higher than ever before http://cn.bing.com/dict/search?q=.&FORM=BDVSP6&mkt=zh-cn. The RB temperatures have caused severe impacts on ecosystems and human society. Here, we address changes in RB temperature events occurring over China in the past (1961-2014) as well as future projections (2006-2100) using observational data and the newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The number of RB events has a significant multi-decadal variability in China, and the intensity expresses a strong decrease from 1961 to 2014. However, more frequent RB events occurred in mid-eastern and northeastern China over last 30 years (1981-2010). Comparisons with observational data indicate multi-model ensemble (MME) simulations from the CMIP5 model perform well in simulating RB events for the historical run period (1961-2005). CMIP5 MME shows a relatively larger uncertainty for the change in intensity. From 2051 to 2100, fewer RB events are projected to occur in most parts of China according to RCP 2.6 scenarios. Over the longer period from 2006 to 2100, a remarkable increase is expected for the entire country according to RCP 8.5 scenarios and the maximum numbers of RB events increase by approximately 600 per year at end of twenty-first century.

  17. Energy: options for the future. Curriculum development project for high school teachers. Final report. [Packet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carroll, T.O.

    1978-04-01

    Recent state and regional energy crises demonstrate the delicate balance between energy systems, the environment, and the economy. Indeed, the interaction between these three elements of society is very complex. This project develops curriculum materials that would better provide students with an understanding and awareness of fundamental principles of energy supply, conversion processes, and utilization now and in the future. The project had two specific objectives: to transfer knowledge of energy systems, analysis techniques, and advanced technologies from the energy analyst community to the teacher participants; and to involve teachers in the preparation of modular case studies on energy issues for use within the classroom. These curriculum modules are intended to enhance the teacher's ability to provide energy-related education to students within his or her own academic setting. The project is organized as a three-week summer program, as noted in the flyer (Appendix A). Mornings are spent in seminars with energy and environmental specialists (their handout lecture notes are included as Appendix B); afternoons are devoted to high school curriculum development based on the seminar discussions. The curriculum development is limited to five areas: conservation, electricity demand scheduling, energy in the food system, new technologies (solar, wind, biomass), and environment. Appendix C consists of one-day lession plans in these areas.

  18. Capital planning for operating theatres based on projecting future theatre requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Jennifer A; Tyler, Peter; Jayasinha, Hirani; Meleady, Kathleen T; Jones, Neill

    2011-05-01

    During 2006, NSW and ACT Health Departments jointly engaged KPMG to develop an Operating Theatre Requirements' Projection Model and an accompanying planning guideline. A research scan was carried out to identify drivers of surgical demand, theatre capacity and theatre performance, as well as locating existing approaches to modelling operating theatre requirements for planning purposes. The project delivered a Microsoft Excel-based model for projecting future operating theatre requirements, together with an accompanying guideline for use of the model and interpretation of its outputs. It provides a valuable addition to the suite of tools available to Health staff for service and capital planning. The model operates with several limitations, largely due to being data dependent, and the state and completeness of available theatre activity data. However, the operational flexibility built into the model allows users to compensate for these limitations, on a case by case basis, when the user has access to suitable, local data. The design flexibility of the model means that updating the model as improved data become available is not difficult; resulting in revisions being able to be made quickly, and disseminated to users rapidly.

  19. Risk Management in Future Romanian E-Government 2.0 Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didraga Otniel

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available E-government public services in Romania must follow unitary procedures considering the new requirements of the European Union from the Digital Agenda for Europe Strategy 2020. E-government 2.0 has to be implemented because of the cultural and behavioral transformations in the interaction between governments and users of e-services. E-government 2.0 projects use tools and techniques of social media to accomplish their goals. This article examines the possible risk categories and the risk management procedures needed to mitigate risks in future Romanian e-government projects, according to the strategic lines of development for the Digital Agenda. We propose a risk management plan for the e-government lines of action within the strategic lines of development that includes identifying, assessing, and mitigating the risks. New and modernized government services through e-government 2.0 projects that apply risk management will bring a significant improvement in how citizens and businesses relate to government and will increase the use of e-government services.

  20. The IAEA international project on innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles (INPRO): current and future activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kupitz, J.; Depisch, F.; Kuznetsov, V.

    2004-01-01

    Upon resolutions of the IAEA General Conference in 2000, the IAEA initiated International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO). The objective of INPRO, which comprises two phases, is to support sustainable deployment and use of nuclear technology to meet the global energy needs in the next 50 years and beyond. During Phase I, work is subdivided into two sub phases. Phase 1A focused on determining user requirements in the areas of economics, environment, safety, proliferation resistance, and recommendations in the area of so-called crosscutting issues, which are legal, institutional, and infrastructure issues accompanying the deployment of nuclear power, and is targeted at developing a methodology and guidelines for the assessment of various nuclear reactor and fuel cycle concepts and approaches. Phase 1A was finalised in June 2003 with its results now available as IAEA TECDOC-1362. Phase 1B has started in July 2003. During this phase interested Member States are performing case studies to validate the INPRO methodology and, later on, to assess selected innovative nuclear energy systems using the updated INPRO methodology. In accordance with the INPRO Terms of Reference, after successful completion of Phase I, Phase II may be initiated to examine the feasibility of commencing international projects on innovative nuclear energy systems. The paper contains a description of the current and future activities of INPRO and summarizes the outcome of the project.(author)

  1. Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

    2018-06-01

    Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

  2. Projecting future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K.; Flanagan, S.; Rourke, O.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

    2011-12-01

    In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial recent progress has been made to estimate the biomass loss and resulting carbon emissions caused by hurricanes impacting the U.S. Additionally, efforts to evaluate the net effects of hurricanes on the regional carbon balance have demonstrated the importance of viewing large disturbance events in the broader context of recovery from a mosaic of past events. Viewed over sufficiently long time scales and large spatial scales, regrowth from previous storms may largely offset new emissions; however, changes in number, strength or spatial distribution of extreme disturbance events will result in changes to the equilibrium state of the ecosystem and have the potential to result in a lasting carbon source or sink. Many recent studies have linked climate change to changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. In this study, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by scenarios of future hurricane activity based on historic activity and future climate projections, to evaluate how changes in hurricane frequency, intensity and spatial distribution could affect regional carbon storage and flux over the coming century. We find a non-linear response where increased storm activity reduces standing biomass stocks reducing the impacts of future events. This effect is highly dependent on the spatial pattern and repeat interval of future hurricane activity. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests.

  3. Effects of Episodic Future Thinking and Self-Projection on Children's Prospective Memory Performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anett Kretschmer-Trendowicz

    Full Text Available The present study is the first to investigate the benefits of episodic future thinking (EFT at encoding on prospective memory (PM in preschool (age: M = 66.34 months, SD = 3.28 and primary school children (age: M = 88.36 months, SD = 3.12. A second aim was to examine if self-projection influences the possible effects of EFT instructions. PM was assessed using a standard PM paradigm in children with a picture-naming task as the ongoing activity in which the PM task was embedded. Further, two first- and two second-order ToM tasks were administered as indicator of children's self-projection abilities. Forty-one preschoolers and 39 school-aged children were recruited. Half of the participants in each age group were instructed to use EFT as a strategy to encode the PM task, while the others received standard PM instructions. Results revealed a significant age effect, with school-aged children significantly outperforming preschoolers and a significant effect of encoding condition with overall better performance when receiving EFT instructions compared to the standard encoding condition. Even though the interaction between age group and encoding condition was not significant, planned comparisons revealed first evidence that compared to the younger age group, older children's PM benefitted more from EFT instructions during intention encoding. Moreover, results showed that although self-projection had a significant impact on PM performance, it did not influence the effects of EFT instructions. Overall, results indicate that children can use EFT encoding strategies to improve their PM performance once EFT abilities are sufficiently developed. Further, they provide first evidence that in addition to executive functions, which have already been shown to influence the development of PM across childhood, self-projection seems to be another key mechanism underlying this development.

  4. Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

    2011-01-01

    California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2. 1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  5. Carbon stable isotope composition of charophyte organic matter in a small and shallow Spanish water body as a baseline for future trophic studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Antonia Rodrigo

    2015-12-01

    thalli parts. The study provides an isotopic baseline for further studies for the elucidation of higher trophic-level relationships which are particularly complex in shallow water bodies where interactions between the pelagic and the benthic zones are intricate.

  6. A stakeholder project to model water temperature under future climate scenarios in the Satus and Toppenish watersheds of the Yakima River Basinin Washington, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, D.; Maule, A.

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this study was to support an assessment of the potential effects of climate change on select natural, social, and economic resources in the Yakima River Basin. A workshop with local stakeholders highlighted the usefulness of projecting climate change impacts on anadromous steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a fish species of importance to local tribes, fisherman, and conservationists. Stream temperature is an important environmental variable for the freshwater stages of steelhead. For this study, we developed water temperature models for the Satus and Toppenish watersheds, two of the key stronghold areas for steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We constructed the models with the Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP), a mechanistic approach to simulate water temperature in a stream network. The models were calibrated over the April 15, 2008 to September 30, 2008 period and validated over the April 15, 2009 to September 30, 2009 period using historic measurements of stream temperature and discharge provided by the Yakama Nation Fisheries Resource Management Program. Once validated, the models were run to simulate conditions during the spring and summer seasons over a baseline period (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios with increased air temperature of 1°C and 2°C. The models simulated daily mean and maximum water temperatures at sites throughout the two watersheds under the baseline and future climate scenarios.

  7. Updating the U.S. Life Cycle GHG Petroleum Baseline to 2014 with Projections to 2040 Using Open-Source Engineering-Based Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooney, Gregory; Jamieson, Matthew; Marriott, Joe; Bergerson, Joule; Brandt, Adam; Skone, Timothy J

    2017-01-17

    The National Energy Technology Laboratory produced a well-to-wheels (WTW) life cycle greenhouse gas analysis of petroleum-based fuels consumed in the U.S. in 2005, known as the NETL 2005 Petroleum Baseline. This study uses a set of engineering-based, open-source models combined with publicly available data to calculate baseline results for 2014. An increase between the 2005 baseline and the 2014 results presented here (e.g., 92.4 vs 96.2 g CO 2 e/MJ gasoline, + 4.1%) are due to changes both in modeling platform and in the U.S. petroleum sector. An updated result for 2005 was calculated to minimize the effect of the change in modeling platform, and emissions for gasoline in 2014 were about 2% lower than in 2005 (98.1 vs 96.2 g CO 2 e/MJ gasoline). The same methods were utilized to forecast emissions from fuels out to 2040, indicating maximum changes from the 2014 gasoline result between +2.1% and -1.4%. The changing baseline values lead to potential compliance challenges with frameworks such as the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) Section 526, which states that Federal agencies should not purchase alternative fuels unless their life cycle GHG emissions are less than those of conventionally produced, petroleum-derived fuels.

  8. Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Preston, Samuel H.; Stokes, Andrew; Mehta, Neil K.; Cao, Bochen

    2013-01-01

    We estimate the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010?2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these estimates. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts are age 25. To these distributions, we apply death rates by current and ...

  9. Oscillation Baselining and Analysis Tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-03-27

    PNNL developed a new tool for oscillation analysis and baselining. This tool has been developed under a new DOE Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC) Project (GM0072 - “Suite of open-source applications and models for advanced synchrophasor analysis”) and it is based on the open platform for PMU analysis. The Oscillation Baselining and Analysis Tool (OBAT) performs the oscillation analysis and identifies modes of oscillations (frequency, damping, energy, and shape). The tool also does oscillation event baselining (fining correlation between oscillations characteristics and system operating conditions).

  10. The TRIDEC Project: Future-Saving FOSS GIS Applications for Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loewe, P.; Wächter, J.; Hammitzsch, M.

    2011-12-01

    The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 killed over 240,000 people in 14 countries and inundated the affected shorelines with waves reaching heights up to 30m. This natural disaster coincided with an information catastrophy, as potentially life-saving early warning information existed, yet no means were available to deliver it to the communities under imminent threat. Tsunami Early Warning Capabilities have improved in the meantime by continuing development of modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). However, recent tsunami events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key challenge for ongoing TEWS research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of reliable early warning messages. Since 2004, the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All TRIDEC developments are based on Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) components and industry standards where-ever possible. Tsunami Early Warning in TRIDEC is also based on mature system architecture models to ensure long-term usability and the flexibility to adapt to future generations of Tsunami sensors. All open source software produced by the project consortium are foreseen to be published on FOSSLAB, a publicly available

  11. Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

    2017-08-01

    Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

  12. Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

    2017-08-01

    Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

  13. Baseline study of morphometric traits of wild Capsicum annuum growing near two biosphere reserves in the Peninsula of Baja California for future conservation management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murillo-Amador, Bernardo; Rueda-Puente, Edgar Omar; Troyo-Diéguez, Enrique; Córdoba-Matson, Miguel Víctor; Hernández-Montiel, Luis Guillermo; Nieto-Garibay, Alejandra

    2015-05-10

    Despite the ecological and socioeconomic importance of wild Capsicum annuum L., few investigations have been carried out to study basic characteristics. The peninsula of Baja California has a unique characteristic that it provides a high degree of isolation for the development of unique highly diverse endemic populations. The objective of this study was to evaluate for the first time the growth type, associated vegetation, morphometric traits in plants, in fruits and mineral content of roots, stems and leaves of three wild populations of Capsicum in Baja California, Mexico, near biosphere reserves. The results showed that the majority of plants of wild Capsicum annuum have a shrub growth type and were associated with communities consisting of 43 species of 20 families the most representative being Fabaceae, Cactaceae and Euphorbiaceae. Significant differences between populations were found in plant height, main stem diameter, beginning of canopy, leaf area, leaf average and maximum width, stems and roots dry weights. Coverage, leaf length and dry weight did not show differences. Potassium, sodium and zinc showed significant differences between populations in their roots, stems and leaves, while magnesium and manganese showed significant differences only in roots and stems, iron in stems and leaves, calcium in roots and leaves and phosphorus did not show differences. Average fruit weight, length, 100 fruits dry weight, 100 fruits pulp dry weight and pulp/seeds ratio showed significant differences between populations, while fruit number, average fruit fresh weight, peduncle length, fruit width, seeds per fruit and seed dry weight, did not show differences. We concluded that this study of traits of wild Capsicum, provides useful information of morphometric variation between wild populations that will be of value for future decision processes involved in the management and preservation of germplasm and genetic resources.

  14. Maiden immunization coverage survey in the republic of South Sudan: a cross-sectional study providing baselines for future performance measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mbabazi, William; Lako, Anthony K; Ngemera, Daniel; Laku, Richard; Yehia, Mostafah; Nshakira, Nathan

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Since the comprehensive peace agreement was signed in 2005, institutionalization of immunization services in South Sudan remained a priority. Routine administrative reporting systems were established and showed that national coverage rates for DTP-3 rose from 20% in 2002 to 80% in 2011. This survey was conducted as part of an overall review of progress in implementation of the first EPI Multi-Year Plan for South Sudan 2007-2011. This report provides maiden community coverage estimates for immunization. Methods A cross sectional community survey was conducted between January and May 2012. Ten cluster surveys were conducted to generate state-specific coverage estimates. The WHO 30x7 cluster sampling method was employed. Data was collected using pre-tested, interviewer guided, structured questionnaires through house to house visits. Results The fully immunized children were 7.3%. Coverage for specific antigens were; BCG (28.3%), DTP-1(25.9%), DTP-3 (22.0%), Measles (16.8%). The drop-out rate between the first and third doses of DTP was 21.3%. Immunization coverage estimates based on card and history were higher, at 45.7% for DTP-3, 45.8% for MCV and 32.2% for full immunization. Majority of immunizations (80.8%) were received at health facilities compared to community service points (19.2%). The major reason for missed immunizations was inadequate information (41.1%). Conclusion The proportion of card-verified, fully vaccinated among children aged 12-23 months is very low at 7.3%. Future efforts to improve vaccination quality and coverage should prioritize training of vaccinators and program communication to levels equivalent or higher than investments in EPI cold chain systems since 2007. PMID:24876899

  15. Flood Frequency Analysis of Future Climate Projections in the Cache Creek Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, I.; Trihn, T.; Ishida, K.; Jang, S.; Kavvas, E.; Kavvas, M. L.

    2014-12-01

    Effects of climate change on hydrologic flow regimes, particularly extreme events, necessitate modeling of future flows to best inform water resources management. Future flow projections may be modeled through the joint use of carbon emission scenarios, general circulation models and watershed models. This research effort ran 13 simulations for carbon emission scenarios (taken from the A1, A2 and B1 families) over the 21st century (2001-2100) for the Cache Creek watershed in Northern California. Atmospheric data from general circulation models, CCSM3 and ECHAM5, were dynamically downscaled to a 9 km resolution using MM5, a regional mesoscale model, before being input into the physically based watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model. Ensemble mean and standard deviation of simulated flows describe the expected hydrologic system response. Frequency histograms and cumulative distribution functions characterize the range of hydrologic responses that may occur. The modeled flow results comprise a dataset suitable for time series and frequency analysis allowing for more robust system characterization, including indices such as the 100 year flood return period. These results are significant for water quality management as the Cache Creek watershed is severely impacted by mercury pollution from historic mining activities. Extreme flow events control mercury fate and transport affecting the downstream water bodies of the Sacramento River and Sacramento- San Joaquin Delta which provide drinking water to over 25 million people.

  16. Projecting future temperature-related mortality in three largest Australian cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Liu, De Li; Chen, Dong; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu

    2016-01-01

    We estimated net annual temperature-related mortality in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Australia using 62 global climate model projections under three IPPC SRES CO_2 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). In all cities, all scenarios resulted in increases in summer temperature-related deaths for future decades, and decreases in winter temperature-related deaths. However, Brisbane and Sydney will increase the net annual temperature-related deaths in the future, while a slight decrease will happen in Melbourne. Additionally, temperature-related mortality will largely increase beyond the summer (including January, February, March, November and December) in Brisbane and Sydney, while temperature-related mortality will largely decrease beyond the winter in Melbourne. In conclusion, temperature increases for Australia are expected to result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city. In particular, the seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths will be shifted. - Temperature increases result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city in Australia.

  17. Current status and future direction of INPRO (International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omoto, Akira; Moriwaki, Masanao; Sugimoto, Jun; Nakai, Ryodai

    2007-01-01

    INPRO is an international forum to consider jointly the international and national actions required to achieve desired innovations in nuclear reactors and fuel cycles so as to ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to a sustainable development of the human, and IAEA becomes the secretariat for INPRO. The number of the members counts 28 by recent participation of Japan and U.S.A. now, and it is a unique forum to bring together both technology users and technology holders, that includes 5 countries which do not still have nuclear power generation. Until now it was phase I, and focused its activities to make clear the desired characteristics of nuclear energy system toward the future, and to develop methodology to evaluate various nuclear energy systems, but it shifted to phase II from July, 2006, and it planned three areas of activities such as improvement of evaluation methodology, institutional/infrastructure oriented activities and a collaborative project of technology development. Current status and future direction of INPRO was presented to encourage Japan in significant contributions of these three areas. (T. Tanaka)

  18. Financing arrangements for nuclear power projects - past and present experience and future expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ispas, G.

    2004-01-01

    The intent of the author of the present paper is to demonstrate, in a practical manner, the role of the past experience and the new approaches of the nuclear projects financing, especially as nuclear generation financing in developing countries involves complex issues that need to be fully understood and dealt with by all the parties involved, namely: high investment costs, generally long construction periods, a high degree of uncertainty with respect to costs and schedule and to public acceptance, particularly because of safety, waste disposal and non-proliferation issues. Moreover, as many associations whose activities consist of ensuring and facilitating at different levels the exchange of knowledge between generations, i.e.: European Nuclear Society (ENS) Young Generation, North American Young Generation in Nuclear (NA-YGN), the goal of the paper is also to outline the importance of the education in nuclear field, i.e. training a young team of specialists to be ready to take over the movement and responsibility in continuing the further development of nuclear program in Romania, mainly with view to the Financing Arrangements for Nuclear Power Projects. The first part of the paper is referring to general financing procedures, while the second part is focusing on a case study related to the: past experience the financing scheme of Cernavoda NPP Unit 1, present or actual experience ongoing financing issues for Cernavoda NPP Unit 2 and potential future shared contribution to the financing of the next Cernavoda NPP units.(author)

  19. Ischaemic heart disease deaths in Brazil: current trends, regional disparities and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena, Cristina P; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Schio, Nicolle Amboni; Sabbag, Ary Elias; Guarita-Souza, Luiz Cesar; Olandoski, Marcia; Franco, Oscar H; Faria-Neto, José Rocha

    2013-09-01

    To quantify the trend of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths in Brazil during the last decade (2000-2010) for various population characteristics and to forecast the upcoming mortality trends across regions in Brazil until the year 2015. Nationwide comparative observational study. The population studied encompassed all adult residents (≥ 20 years) living in five Brazilian regions between 2000 and 2010. Demographic, economic and mortality data were obtained from Brazilian National Mortality Data System and National Applied Economics Research Institute. Subnotified deaths were redistributed proportionally to IHD deaths. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 inhabitants, by sex and region, were calculated employing a standard Brazilian population and constructing multivariate regression models to quantify and to project temporal trends. Absolute numbers of death due to IHD and region-specific death rates in Brazil by age and sex. During the study period, 627 786 men and 452 690 women died due to IHD in Brazil. ASMR trends across all regions for men and women converged, driven by a declining trend in the South and Southeast and an opposite incline in the North and Northeast (p < 0.05). Future projections demonstrated potential widening of the observed North-South gap in coming years. The IHD death trend in Brazil has changed from a decline to a stagnant state. However, a significant discrepancy in mortality trends exists between the northern and southern regions, which is likely to widen further. Reappraisal of the public health policies tailored to populations with diverse socioeconomic structures is urgently required.

  20. Temporal Compounding of Heat Waves in the Present and Projected Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, J. W.; Dessy, J.; Vecchi, G. A.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2017-12-01

    The hazard of heat waves is projected to increase significantly with global warming, motivating much recent research characterizing various aspects of these extreme events. One less examined aspect of heat waves is their temporal structure. Here we first modify existing heat wave duration definitions to flexibly account for a variety of possible heat wave temporal structures (sequences of hot and cooler days). We then examine past heat waves associated with high mortality using observational reanalysis data, and note that many past heat waves might be better described as series of hot days compounded together with short breaks of cooler days in between. We employ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global climate model (GCM) simulations to compare the frequency of these compound heat waves in the present and projected future with higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our results indicate that temporally compound heatwaves will constitute a greater proportion of heat wave risk with global warming. Via examining synthetic autoregressive model data, we propose that this phenomenon is expected when shifting the mean of a time series with some memory and noise. Notably, an increased proportion of compound events implies that vulnerability from prior hot days will play an increasingly large role in heat wave risk, with possible implications for both heat wave-related policy and preparedness.

  1. Projected near-future levels of temperature and pCO2 reduce coral fertilization success.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Albright

    Full Text Available Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2 are projected to contribute to a 1.1-6.4°C rise in global average surface temperatures and a 0.14-0.35 reduction in the average pH of the global surface ocean by 2100. If realized, these changes are expected to have negative consequences for reef-building corals including increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching and reduced rates of calcification and reef accretion. Much less is known regarding the independent and combined effects of temperature and pCO2 on critical early life history processes such as fertilization. Here we show that increases in temperature (+3°C and pCO2 (+400 µatm projected for this century negatively impact fertilization success of a common Indo-Pacific coral species, Acropora tenuis. While maximum fertilization did not differ among treatments, the sperm concentration required to obtain 50% of maximum fertilization increased 6- to 8- fold with the addition of a single factor (temperature or CO2 and nearly 50- fold when both factors interact. Our results indicate that near-future changes in temperature and pCO2 narrow the range of sperm concentrations that are capable of yielding high fertilization success in A. tenuis. Increased sperm limitation, in conjunction with adult population decline, may have severe consequences for coral reproductive success. Impaired sexual reproduction will further challenge corals by inhibiting population recovery and adaptation potential.

  2. Future Arctic marine access: analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Rogers

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's first component is an observationally based evaluation of Arctic sea ice trends during 1980–2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice loss has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum (January–March extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A lead–lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice. The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants and synthesize model performance across several different studies. The best performing models project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through 2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1–3 months. This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including shipping and resource development opportunities.

  3. Chicago Clean Air, Clean Water Project: Environmental Monitoring for a Healthy, Sustainable Urban Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none, none; Tuchman, Nancy [Institute of Environmental Sustainability (IES), Chicago, IL (United States)

    2015-11-11

    The U.S. Department of Energy awarded Loyola University Chicago and the Institute of Environmental Sustainability (IES) $486,000.00 for the proposal entitled “Chicago clean air, clean water project: Environmental monitoring for a healthy, sustainable urban future.” The project supported the purchase of analytical instruments for the development of an environmental analytical laboratory. The analytical laboratory is designed to support the testing of field water and soil samples for nutrients, industrial pollutants, heavy metals, and agricultural toxins, with special emphasis on testing Chicago regional soils and water affected by coal-based industry. Since the award was made in 2010, the IES has been launched (fall 2013), and the IES acquired a new state-of-the-art research and education facility on Loyola University Chicago’s Lakeshore campus. Two labs were included in the research and education facility. The second floor lab is the Ecology Laboratory where lab experiments and analyses are conducted on soil, plant, and water samples. The third floor lab is the Environmental Toxicology Lab where lab experiments on environmental toxins are conducted, as well as analytical tests conducted on water, soil, and plants. On the south end of the Environmental Toxicology Lab is the analytical instrumentation collection purchased from the present DOE grant, which is overseen by a full time Analytical Chemist (hired January 2016), who maintains the instruments, conducts analyses on samples, and helps to train faculty and undergraduate and graduate student researchers.

  4. Overview of ITER project. Objective, history, status of development, structure and its future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuda, S.

    2003-01-01

    The objective of ITER Project is to demonstrate the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy for peaceful use. To achieve this goal, the Conceptual Design Activities (CDA 1988-1990) and the Engineering Design Activities (EDA 1992-2001) were conducted by the joint effort of EU, Japan, RF and US under the auspices of IAEA. Engineering design has been developed consistently with plasma physics databases obtained by the world-wide magnetic fusion devices up to and during the EDA. Technology R and D including development, manufacturing and testing of scalable models of major components have been also conducted and ensured manufacturing and technical feasibility of ITER. Such technical readiness to start ITER construction urged formal government negotiation initially by Canada, EU, Japan and RF, and intense meetings have been held since November 2001. The US and China have joined since Feb. 2003. Four candidate sites have been proposed by Canada, EU and Japan for construction and have been evaluated. Once the agreement will be made, the construction takes about 10 years to complete, followed by the operation and exploitation phase lasting about 20 years. This paper gives an overview of ITER Project including its role in the long range fusion program, history, status of development, collaboration structure and its future program. (author)

  5. Projected future climate changes in the context of geological and geomorphological hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liggins, Felicity; Betts, Richard A; McGuire, Bill

    2010-05-28

    On palaeoclimate time scales, enhanced levels of geological and geomorphological activity have been linked to climatic factors, including examples of processes that are expected to be important in current and future anthropogenic climate change. Planetary warming leading to increased rainfall, ice-mass loss and rising sea levels is potentially relevant to geospheric responses in many geologically diverse regions. Anthropogenic climate change, therefore, has the potential to alter the risk of geological and geomorphological hazards through the twenty-first century and beyond. Here, we review climate change projections from both global and regional climate models in the context of geohazards. In assessing the potential for geospheric responses to climate change, it appears prudent to consider regional levels of warming of 2 degrees C above average pre-industrial temperature as being potentially unavoidable as an influence on processes requiring a human adaptation response within this century. At the other end of the scale when considering changes that could be avoided by reduction of emissions, scenarios of unmitigated warming exceeding 4 degrees C in the global average include much greater local warming in some regions. However, considerable further work is required to better understand the uncertainties associated with these projections, uncertainties inherent not only in the climate modelling but also in the linkages between climate change and geospheric responses.

  6. Future energy research in the EU under EIT conditions-pilot projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puehringer-Oppermann, Franziska; Bele, Petra; Bussar, Rainer; Stimming, Ulrich [TUM, Dept. of Physics, E19, James-Franck Str. 1, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    The European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) has been established in April 2008. It is an independent organisation with the administrative head in Budapest, a governing board, an executive committee and a chairman. The EIT budget until 2012 is 308 MEUR. EIT will operate through the formation of Knowledge and Innovation Communities (KICs). The first three KICs are foreseen in the areas sustainable energy, ICT and climate mitigation. The European Commission has sponsored four pilot projects (conducted 2008-2009) to help develop a suitable governance structure for cooperations on European scale such as the future KICs. They are Bridge, ComplexEIT, SUCCESS and Gast, dealing with different topics like nanomedicine (Bridge), integration of hardware and software (ComplexEIT), sustainable energy (SUCCESS) and green and safe road transportation (Gast). The strategic objective of these pilot projects is to design, implement and test new models of cooperation in the knowledge triangle. We are involved in SUCCESS and after benchmarking of 66 collaborations in the field sustainable energy, the state of the art of selected representative topics was asessed and shortcomings in governance evaluated by SWOT analysis. In parallel further existing collaborations were used to extract and establish a management structure for such collaborations on the European scale.

  7. Status and Future Perspectives of the HIE-Isolde Project at CERN

    CERN Document Server

    Kadi, Y; Blumenfeld, Y; Calatroni, S; Catherall, R; Fraser, M A; Goddard, B; Parchet, D; Siesling, E; Venturini Delsolaro, W; Voulot, D; Williams, L R

    2012-01-01

    The High Intensity and Energy (HIE)-ISOLDE project aims at several important upgrades of the present ISOLDE radioactive beam facility at CERN. The main focus lies in the energy upgrade of the post-accelerated radionuclide beams from 3 MeV/u up to 10 MeV/u through the addition of superconducting cavities. This will open the possibility of many new types of experiments including transfer reactions throughout the nuclear chart. The first stage of this upgrade involves the design, construction, installation and commissioning of two high-β cryomodules downstream of REX-ISOLDE, the existing post-accelerator. Each cryomodule houses five high-β superconducting cavities and one superconducting solenoid. Prototypes of the Nb-sputtered Quarter Wave Resonators (QWRs) cavities for the new superconducting linear accelerator have been manufactured and are undergoing RF cold tests. The project also includes a design study of improved production targets to accommodate to the future increase of proton intensity delivered by ...

  8. The climate of the Eastern Seaboard of Australia: A challenging entity now and for future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timbal, Bertrand

    2010-01-01

    The Eastern SeaBoard (ESB) of Australia has long been recognised as a separate climate entity. Using the latest gridded observations from the Bureau of Meteorology, a definition of the spatial extent of the ESB is proposed. It appears that, while this area has recorded below average rainfall over the last 12 years, the ongoing deficiency is not record breaking in historic terms. This contrasts with record breaking droughts across large parts of inland, eastern Australia. The lesser severity of ongoing rainfall deficiencies in the ESB, compared to the rest of the region, is linked to the different impact of observed changes in regional surface pressure and, in particular, changes in the position of the sub-tropical ridge. It is also observed that while tropical modes of variability in the Pacific and Indian oceans are known to influence the climate of eastern Australia, that influence appears very weak and not statistically significant across the ESB. Finally, some issues relevant to future rainfall projections for the ESB are discussed. It is argued that providing reliable climate projections across this climatic region is a difficult challenge.

  9. Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust

  10. submitter Status of the Demonstrator Magnets for the EuCARD-2 Future Magnets Project

    CERN Document Server

    Kirby, G; Badel, A; Bajko, M; Ballarino, A; Bottura, L; Dhalle, M; Durante, M; Fazilleau, P; Fleiter, J; Goldacker, W; Haro, E; Himbele, J; Kario, A; Langeslag, S; Lorin, C; Murtzomaki, J; van Nugteren, J; de Rijk, G; Salmi, T; Senatore, C; Stenvall, A; Tixador, P; Usoskin, A; Volpini, G; Yang, Y; Zangenberg, N

    2016-01-01

    EuCARD-2 is a project partly supported by FP7 European Commission aiming at exploring accelerator magnet technology for 20-T dipole operating field. The EuCARD-2 collaboration is liaising with similar programs for high-field magnets in the U.S. and Japan. EuCARD-2 focuses, through the work package 10 “future magnets,” on the development of a 10-kA-class superconducting high-current-density cable suitable for accelerator magnets, for a 5-T stand-alone dipole of 40-mm bore and about 1-m length. After stand-alone testing, the magnet will be inserted in a large bore background dipole, 10-18 T. This paper reports on the design and development of models, which are called Feather0, wound with REBCO Roebel cable. Based on aligned block design to take advantage of the anisotropy of the REBCO tapes, Feather0 is a precursor of Feather2, which should reach the project goals in 2016. Feather0 is planned to be tested both in stand alone and as an insert mounted in the CERN Fresca facility providing 10-T background fiel...

  11. Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet energy balance driving the surface melt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Franco

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, simulations at 25 km resolution are performed over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, using the regional climate model MAR forced by four RCP scenarios from three CMIP5 global circulation models (GCMs, in order to investigate the projected changes of the surface energy balance (SEB components driving the surface melt. Analysis of 2000–2100 melt anomalies compared to melt results over 1980–1999 reveals an exponential relationship of the GrIS surface melt rate simulated by MAR to the near-surface air temperature (TAS anomalies, mainly due to the surface albedo positive feedback associated with the extension of bare ice areas in summer. On the GrIS margins, the future melt anomalies are preferentially driven by stronger sensible heat fluxes, induced by enhanced warm air advection over the ice sheet. Over the central dry snow zone, the surface albedo positive feedback induced by the increase in summer melt exceeds the negative feedback of heavier snowfall for TAS anomalies higher than 4 °C. In addition to the incoming longwave flux increase associated with the atmosphere warming, GCM-forced MAR simulations project an increase of the cloud cover decreasing the ratio of the incoming shortwave versus longwave radiation and dampening the albedo feedback. However, it should be noted that this trend in the cloud cover is contrary to that simulated by ERA-Interim–forced MAR for recent climate conditions, where the observed melt increase since the 1990s seems mainly to be a consequence of more anticyclonic atmospheric conditions. Finally, no significant change is projected in the length of the melt season, which highlights the importance of solar radiation absorbed by the ice sheet surface in the melt SEB.

  12. Past and future of the Austrian snow cover - results from the CC-Snow project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strasser, Ulrich; Marke, Thomas; Hanzer, Florian; Ragg, Hansjörg; Kleindienst, Hannes; Wilcke, Renate; Gobiet, Andreas

    2013-04-01

    This study has the goal to simulate the evolution of the Austrian snow cover from 1971 to 2050 by means of a coupled modelling scheme, and to estimate the effect of climate change on the evolution of the natural snow cover. The model outcomes are interepreted with focus on both the future natural snow conditions, and the effects on winter skiing tourism. Therefore the regional temperature-index snow model SNOWREG is applied, providing snow maps with a spatial resolution of 250 m. The model is trained by means of assimilating local measurements and observed natural snow cover patterns. Meteorological forcing consists of the output of four realizations of the ENSEMBLES project for the A1B emission scenario. The meteorological variables are downscaled and error corrected with a quantile based empirical-statistical method on a daily time basis. The control simulation is 1971-2000, and the scenario simulation 2021-2050. Spatial interpolation is performed on the basis of parameter-elevation relations. We compare the four different global/regional climate model combinations and their effect on the snow modelling, and we explain the patterns of the resulting snow cover by means of regional climatological characteristics. The provinces Tirol and Styria serve as test regions, being typical examples for the two climatic subregions of Austria. To support the interpretation of the simulation results we apply indicators which enable to define meaningful measures for the comparison of the different periods and regions. Results show that the mean duration of the snow cover will decrease by 15 to 30 days per winter season, mostly in elevations between 2000 and 2500 m. Above 3000 m the higher winter precipitation can compensate this effect, and mean snow cover duration may even slightly increase. We also investigate the local scale by application of the physically based mountain snow model AMUNDSEN. This model is capable of producing 50 m resolution output maps for indicators

  13. Future Projections and Consequences of the Changing North American Carbon Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Cooley, S. R.; Moore, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    The rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily due to human-caused fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere. Nevertheless, today's atmospheric CO2 levels are higher than at any time in the past 800,000 years. Over the past decade, there has been considerable effort to understand how carbon cycle changes interact with, and influence, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and thus climate. Here, we summarize the key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and the consequences of these changes as reported in Chapters 17 and 19 of the 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, plant growth, and water-use efficiency. Together, these may lead to changes in vegetation composition, carbon storage, hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. In the ocean, increased uptake of atmospheric CO2 causes ocean acidification, which leads to changes in reproduction, survival, and growth of many marine species. These direct physiological responses to acidification are likely to have indirect ecosystem-scale consequences that we are just beginning to understand. In all environments, the effects of rising CO2 also interact with other global changes. For example, nutrient availability can set limits on growth and a warming climate alters carbon uptake depending on a number of other factors. As a result, there is low confidence in the future evolution of the North American carbon cycle. For example, models project that terrestrial ecosystems could continue to be a net sink (of up to 1.19 PgC yr-1) or switch to a net source of carbon to the atmosphere (of up to 0.60 PgC yr-1) by the end of the century under business-as-usual emission scenarios. And, while North American coastal areas have historically been a sink of carbon (e.g., 2.6 to 3.5 PgC since 1995) and are projected to continue to take up

  14. Changes in the flood frequency in the Mahanadi basin under observed and projected future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modi, P. A.; Lakshmi, V.; Mishra, V.

    2017-12-01

    The Mahanadi river basin is vulnerable to multiple types of extreme events due to its topography and river networks. These extreme events are not efficiently captured by the current LSMs partly due to lack of spatial hydrological data and uncertainty in the models. This study compares and evaluates the hydrologic simulations of the recently developed community Noah model with multi-parameterization options which is an upgradation of baseline Noah LSM. The model is calibrated and validated for the Mahanadi river basin and is driven by major atmospheric forcing from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), Tropical rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP designed for hydrological modeling) precipitation datasets along with some additional forcing derived from the VIC model at 0.25-degree spatial resolution. The Noah-MP LSM is calibrated using observed daily streamflow data from 1978-1989 (India-WRIS) at the gauge stations with least human interventions with a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency higher than 0.60. Noah MP was calibrated using different schemes for runoff with variation in all parameters sensitive to surface and sub-surface runoff. Streamflow routing was performed using a stand-alone model (VIC model) to route daily model runoff at required gauge station. Surface runoff is mainly affected by the uncertainties in major atmospheric forcing and highly sensitive parameters pertaining to soil properties. Noah MP is validated using observed streamflow from 1975-2010 which indicates the consistency of streamflow with the historical observations (NSE>0.65) thus indicating an increase in probability of future flood events.

  15. Current status and future prospects of Japanese national project on coated conductor development and its applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiohara, Y.; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T.; Yamada, Y.

    2008-09-01

    Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of Ic and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose Ic value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO 2. About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO 2 doping showed a high Ic value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high Ic value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high Ic values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO 2/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The Ic × L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current-limiters and cryocoolers. Some of the new themes already revealed the

  16. Current status and future prospects of Japanese national project on coated conductor development and its applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shiohara, Y. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Shinonome 1-10-13, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-0062 (Japan)], E-mail: shiohara@istec.or.jp; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Shinonome 1-10-13, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-0062 (Japan); Yamada, Y. [Superconductivity Research Laboratory, ISTEC, Nagoya Coated Conductor Center, 2-4-1, Mutsuno, Atsuta-ku, Nagoya 456-8587 (Japan)

    2008-09-15

    Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of I{sub c} and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose I{sub c} value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO{sub 2}. About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO{sub 2} doping showed a high I{sub c} value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high I{sub c} value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high I{sub c} values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO{sub 2}/IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The I{sub c} x L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current

  17. Current status and future prospects of Japanese national project on coated conductor development and its applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiohara, Y.; Yoshizumi, M.; Izumi, T.; Yamada, Y.

    2008-01-01

    Four years of the current five-year national project since 2003 for development of coated conductors using Y-system superconductors have passed and lots of remarkable results have been achieved. In this paper, the current status and the future prospect of this project are reviewed. The current national project comprises several groups of national laboratories, universities and private companies. The group of high performance tape development, consisting of Fujikura and SRL-NCCC, has worked on the tape by PLD-REBCO superconducting tapes on the PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO buffered substrates. The high product of I c and L equal to 112,166 A m was achieved in the 368 m-304.8 A GdBCO tape whose I c value is mostly above 350 A/cm-w. The performance under the magnetic fields was also improved up to 42 A at 3 T in a GdBCO short film with doping of ZrO 2 . About 61 m long GdBCO tape with ZrO 2 doping showed a high I c value of 220 A at self field and 30 A at 3 T. On the other hand, the other group focusing on the low production cost has worked on processes of TFA-MOD and MOCVD, etc. The extremely high I c value of 735 A/cm-w was attained in the TFA-MOD films on PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 substrate by means of using the effect of Ba-poor nominal composition. In the efforts for long tape production, 200 m long tapes with high I c values of 200 A/cm-w and 205 A/cm-w were obtained by MOD-YBCO/PLD-CeO 2 /IBAD-GZO/Hastelloy C276 and PLD-HoBCO on buffered NiW substrate, respectively. The I c x L value of the MOD-derived tape was 40,000 A m, which is the highest value in the world by the MOD process. Based on the above achievements on the coated conductor process development, two new additional goals were set in the project. One is the development for the extremely low cost tape and another is the development of the basic technologies for making the electric power devices including cables, transformers, motors, current-limiters and cryocoolers. Some of the new themes already

  18. STATUS OF THE US LONG BASELINE NEUTRINO EXPERIMENT STUDY.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    BISHAI,M.

    2006-09-21

    The US Long Baseline Neutrino Experiment Study was commissioned jointly by Brookhaven National Laboratory and Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory to investigate the potential for future U.S. based long baseline neutrino oscillation experiments beyond the currently planned program. The Study focused on MW class convention at neutrino beams that can be produced at Fermilab or BNL. The experimental baselines are based on two possible detector locations: (1) off-axis to the existing Fermilab NuMI beamline at baselines of 700 to 810 km and (2) NSF's proposed future Deep Underground Science and Engineering Laboratory (DUSEL) at baselines greater than 1000 km. Two detector technologies are considered: a megaton class Water Cherenkov detector deployed deep underground at a DUSEL site, or a 100kT Liquid Argon Time-Projection Chamber (TPC) deployed on the surface at any of the proposed sites. The physics sensitivities of the proposed experiments are summarized. We find that conventional horn focused wide-band neutrino beam options from Fermilab or BNL aimed at a massive detector with a baseline of > 1000 km have the best sensitivity to CP violation and the neutrino mass hierarchy for values of the mixing angle {theta}{sub 13} down to 2.2{sup o}.

  19. Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shkolnik, Igor; Pavlova, Tatiana; Efimov, Sergey; Zhuravlev, Sergey

    2018-01-01

    Climate change simulation based on 30-member ensemble of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory RCM (resolution 25 km) for northern Eurasia is used to drive hydrological model CaMa-Flood. Using this modeling framework, we evaluate the uncertainties in the future projection of the peak river discharge and flood hazard by 2050-2059 relative to 1990-1999 under IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Large ensemble size, along with reasonably high modeling resolution, allows one to efficiently sample natural climate variability and increase our ability to predict future changes in the hydrological extremes. It has been shown that the annual maximum river discharge can almost double by the mid-XXI century in the outlets of major Siberian rivers. In the western regions, there is a weak signal in the river discharge and flood hazard, hardly discernible above climate variability. Annual maximum flood area is projected to increase across Siberia mostly by 2-5% relative to the baseline period. A contribution of natural climate variability at different temporal scales to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction is discussed. The analysis shows that there expected considerable changes in the extreme river discharge probability at locations of the key hydropower facilities. This suggests that the extensive impact studies are required to develop recommendations for maintaining regional energy security.

  20. Climate change adaptation accounting for huge uncertainties in future projections - the case of urban drainage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2015-04-01

    Hydrological design parameters, which are currently used in the guidelines for the design of urban drainage systems (Willems et al., 2013) have been revised, taking the Flanders region of Belgium as case study. The revision involved extrapolation of the design rainfall statistics, taking into account the current knowledge on future climate change trends till 2100. Uncertainties in these trend projections have been assessed after statistically analysing and downscaling by a quantile perturbation tool based on a broad ensemble set of climate model simulation results (44 regional + 69 global control-scenario climate model run combinations for different greenhouse gas scenarios). The impact results of the climate scenarios were investigated as changes to rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Thereafter, the climate scenarios and related changes in rainfall statistics were transferred to changes in flood frequencies of sewer systems and overflow frequencies of storage facilities. This has been done based on conceptual urban drainage models. Also the change in storage capacity required to exceed a given overflow return period, has been calculated for a range of return periods and infiltration or throughflow rates. These results were used on the basis of the revision of the hydraulic design rules of urban drainage systems. One of the major challenges while formulating these policy guidelines was the consideration of the huge uncertainties in the future climate change projections and impact assessments; see also the difficulties and pitfalls reported by the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage - Working group on urban rainfall (Willems et al., 2012). We made use of the risk concept, and found it a very useful approach to deal with the high uncertainties. It involves an impact study of the different climate projections, or - for practical reasons - a reduced set of climate scenarios tailored for the specific type of impact considered (urban floods in our

  1. Functional and Structural Findings of Neurodegeneration in Early Stages of Diabetic Retinopathy. Cross-sectional Analyses of Baseline Data of the EUROCONDOR project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Ana Rita; Ribeiro, Luisa; Bandello, Francesco

    2017-01-01

    Cross-sectional study evaluating the relationship between: a) functional and structural measurements of neurodegeneration in initial stages of diabetic retinopathy (DR); and b) presence of neurodegeneration and early microvascular impairment. We analyzed baseline data of patients with type 2...... diabetes (n=449) enrolled in the EUROCONDOR study (NCT01726075). Functional studies by multifocal ERG (mfERG) evaluated neurodysfunction and structural measurements using spectral domain optical-coherence tomography (SD-OCT) evaluated neurodegeneration. The mfERG P1 amplitude was more sensitive than the P1...

  2. Future climate and wildfire: ecosystem projections of area burned in the western US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littell, J. S.; Duffy, P.; Battisti, D. S.; McKenzie, D.; Peterson, D. L.

    2010-12-01

    The area burned by fire in ecosystems of the western United States has been closely linked to climate in the paleoecological record and in the modern record. Statistical models of area burned show that the climatic controls on area burned vary with vegetation type (Littell et al. 2009). In more arid or systems (grasslands, shrublands, woodlands), antecedent climatic controls on fire were associated first with the production of fuels and secondarily with drought in the year of fire. These relationships typically manifested as wetter and sometimes cooler conditions in the seasons prior to the fire season. Area burned in forest ecosystems and some woodlands was primarily associated with drought conditions, specifically increased temperature and decreased precipitation in the year of fire and the seasons leading up to the fire season. These climatic controls indicate the role of climate in drying existing fuels. Statistical fire models trained on the late 20th century for ecoprovinces in the West would be useful for projecting area burned, at least until vegetation type conversion driven by climate and disturbance occurs. To that end, we used ~ 2.5 degree gridded future climate fields derived for a multi-GCM ensemble of 1C and 2C temperature increase forcing to develop future ecoprovince monthly and seasonal average temperature and associated precipitation and used these as predictors in statistical fire models of future projected area burned. We also conducted modeling scenarios with the ensemble temperature increase paired with historical precipitation. Most ecoprovinces had increases in area burned, with a range of ~ 67% to over 600% . Ecoprovinces that are primarily sensitive to precipitation changes exhibit smaller increases than those most sensitive to temperature (forest systems). We also developed exceedance probabilities. Some ecoprovinces show large increases in area burned but low exceedance probabilities, suggest that the area burned is concentrated more

  3. Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  4. Pore Water Arsenic Dynamics in Rice Paddies Under Projected Future Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plaganas, M.; Wang, T.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.

    2016-12-01

    Rice is one of the staple crops in the world, with 50% of the global population eating rice daily. Many rice-producing regions of the world are irrigated with groundwater contaminated with arsenic (As), and in particular South and Southeast Asia, where geogenic As is leached into the groundwater. Use of groundwater pervasively high in As leads to subsequent accumulation in paddy soils. Arsenic, a toxic metalloid, also decreases rice productivity and further jeopardizes food security. Hence, rice agriculture is concerned with its productivity in a climate change impacted future and the particular impacts of arsenic on yields. However, past studies do not address the prevalence of As in paddy soils or its fate in the rhizosphere and ultimate impact on the plant. The objective of our study was to determine changes in pore water As dynamics in the rhizosphere of rice plants grown on As-contaminated paddy soil under climate conditions projected for the end of the century. In order to address this objective, we designed greenhouse chambers with today's climate and projected climate conditions for the year 2100, specifically 5°C increase in temperature and doubled concentration of atmospheric CO2. We hypothesize that the effects of climate change with these conditions will increase the mobility of As in the rhizosphere, and thus, decrease rice growth in As-bearing paddies more than, so far, expected. We examined pore water geochemistry including pH and As concentrations, and correlate that to the height of the plants. Furthermore, the dynamics of other elements in the pore water such as carbon, iron, sulfur, manganese, and silica are further evaluated for their effects on rice growth. Arsenic will have an impact on rice production and conditions induced by future climatic conditions need to be considered for food security. Considering that climate change will decrease the global agricultural output, we should urgently consider adapting our agricultural practices to aid

  5. The clinical endocrinology workforce: current status and future projections of supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigersky, Robert A; Fish, Lisa; Hogan, Paul; Stewart, Andrew; Kutler, Stephanie; Ladenson, Paul W; McDermott, Michael; Hupart, Kenneth H

    2014-09-01

    Many changes in health care delivery, health legislation, and the physician workforce that affect the supply and demand for endocrinology services have occurred since the first published workforce study of adult endocrinologists in 2003. The objective of the study was to assess the current adult endocrinology workforce data and provide the first analysis of the pediatric endocrinology workforce and to project the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025. A workforce model was developed from an analysis of proprietary and publicly available databases, consultation with a technical expert panel, and the results of an online survey of board-certified endocrinologists. The Endocrine Society commissioned The Lewin Group to estimate current supply and to project gaps between supply and demand for endocrinologists. A technical expert panel of senior endocrinologists provided context, clinical information, and direction. The following were measured: 1) the current adult and pediatric endocrinology workforce and the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025 and 2) the number of additional entrants into the endocrinology work pool that would be required to close the gap between supply and demand. Currently there is a shortage of approximately 1500 adult and 100 pediatric full-time equivalent endocrinologists. The gap for adult endocrinologists will expand to 2700 without an increase in the number of fellows trained. An increase in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus further expands the demand for adult endocrinologists. The gap can be closed in 5 and 10 years by increasing the number of fellowship positions by 14.4% and 5.5% per year, respectively. The gap between supply and demand for pediatric endocrinologists will close by 2016, and thereafter an excess supply over demand will develop at the current rate of new entrants into the work force. There are insufficient adult endocrinologists to satisfy current and future demand. A number of proactive

  6. Long baseline neutrino oscillation experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallagher, H.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper I will review briefly the experimental results which established the existence of neutrino mixing, the current generation of long baseline accelerator experiments, and the prospects for the future. In particular I will focus on the recent analysis of the MINOS experiment. (author)

  7. The Results of Development of the Project ZOOINT and its Future Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnov, I. S.; Lobanov, A. L.; Alimov, A. F.; Medvedev, S. G.; Golikov, A. A.

    future of most advanced technologies of development of the DB (for example, usage of the XML platform) and, eventually, building of the modern information systems. The work on the project is carried out at support of the RFBR grant N 02-07-90217; programs "The Information system on a biodiversity of Russia" and Project N 15 "Antarctic Regions".

  8. ENGINEERING STUDY FOR THE 200 AREA EFFLUENT TREATMENT FACILITY (ETF) SECONDARY WASTE TREATMENT OF PROJECTED FUTURE WASTE FEEDS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LUECK, K.J.

    2004-01-01

    This report documents an engineering study conducted to evaluate alternatives for treating secondary waste in the secondary treatment train (STT) of the Hanford Site 200 Area Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF). The study evaluates ETF STT treatment alternatives and recommends preferred alternatives for meeting the projected future missions of the ETF. The preferred alternative(s) will process projected future ETF influents to produce a solid waste acceptable for final disposal on the Hanford Site. The main text of this report summarizes the ETF past and projected operations, lists the assumptions about projected operations that provide the basis for the engineering evaluation, and summarizes the evaluation process. The evaluation process includes identification of available modifications to the current ETF process, screens those modifications for technical viability, evaluates the technically viable alternatives, and provides conclusions and recommendations based on that evaluation

  9. Taking stock of project value creation: A structured literature review with future directions for research and practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Markus; Svejvig, Per

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims to take stock of what we know about project value creation and to present future directions for research and practice. We performed an explorative and unstructured literature review, which was subsequently paired with a structured literature review. We join several research areas...... by adopting the project value creation perspective on literature relating to benefits, value, performance, and success in projects. Our review includes 111 contributions analyzed through both an inductive and deductive approach. We find that relevant literature dates back to the early 1980s, and the still...... developing value-centric view has been the subject of many publications in recent years. We contribute to research on project value creation through four directions for future research: rejuvenating value management through combining value, benefits, and costs; supplementing value creation with value capture...

  10. Future projection of mean and variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon and Indian Ocean Climate systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Annamalai, H. [Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2014-09-15

    The overall goal of this project is to assess the ability of the CMIP3/5 models to simulate the Indian-Ocean monsoon systems. The PI along with post-docs investigated research issues ranging from synoptic systems to long-term trends over the Asian monsoon region. The PI applied diagnostic tools such as moist static energy (MSE) to isolate: the moist and radiative processes responsible for extended monsoon breaks over South Asia, precursors in the ENSO-monsoon association, reasons for the drying tendency over South Asia and the possible effect on tropical Indian Ocean climate anomalies influencing certain aspects of ENSO characteristics. By diagnosing various observations and coupled model simulations, we developed working hypothesis and tested them by carrying out sensitivity experiments with both linear and nonlinear models. Possible physical and dynamical reasons for model sensitivities were deduced. On the teleconnection front, the ability of CMIP5 models in representing the monsoon-desert mechanism was examined recently. Further more, we have applied a suite of diagnostics and have performed an in depth analysis on CMIP5 integrations to isolate the possible reasons for the ENSO-monsoon linkage or lack thereof. The PI has collaborated with Dr. K.R. Sperber of PCMDI and other CLIVAR Asian-Australian monsoon panel members in understanding the ability of CMIP3/5 models in capturing monsoon and its spectrum of variability. The objective and process-based diagnostics aided in selecting models that best represent the present-day monsoon and its variability that are then employed for future projections. Two major highlights were an invitation to write a review on present understanding monsoons in a changing climate in Nature Climate Change, and identification of an east-west shift in observed monsoon rainfall (more rainfall over tropical western Pacific and drying tendency over South Asia) in the last six decades and attributing that shift to SST rise over the tropical

  11. The Future of Family Medicine: a collaborative project of the family medicine community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, James C; Avant, Robert F; Bowman, Marjorie A; Bucholtz, John R; Dickinson, John R; Evans, Kenneth L; Green, Larry A; Henley, Douglas E; Jones, Warren A; Matheny, Samuel C; Nevin, Janice E; Panther, Sandra L; Puffer, James C; Roberts, Richard G; Rodgers, Denise V; Sherwood, Roger A; Stange, Kurt C; Weber, Cynthia W

    2004-01-01

    Recognizing fundamental flaws in the fragmented US health care systems and the potential of an integrative, generalist approach, the leadership of 7 national family medicine organizations initiated the Future of Family Medicine (FFM) project in 2002. The goal of the project was to develop a strategy to transform and renew the discipline of family medicine to meet the needs of patients in a changing health care environment. A national research study was conducted by independent research firms. Interviews and focus groups identified key issues for diverse constituencies, including patients, payers, residents, students, family physicians, and other clinicians. Subsequently, interviews were conducted with nationally representative samples of 9 key constituencies. Based in part on these data, 5 task forces addressed key issues to meet the project goal. A Project Leadership Committee synthesized the task force reports into the report presented here. The project identified core values, a New Model of practice, and a process for development, research, education, partnership, and change with great potential to transform the ability of family medicine to improve the health and health care of the nation. The proposed New Model of practice has the following characteristics: a patient-centered team approach; elimination of barriers to access; advanced information systems, including an electronic health record; redesigned, more functional offices; a focus on quality and outcomes; and enhanced practice finance. A unified communications strategy will be developed to promote the New Model of family medicine to multiple audiences. The study concluded that the discipline needs to oversee the training of family physicians who are committed to excellence, steeped in the core values of the discipline, competent to provide family medicine's basket of services within the New Model, and capable of adapting to varying patient needs and changing care technologies. Family medicine education

  12. Projecting biodiversity and wood production in future forest landscapes: 15 key modeling considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felton, Adam; Ranius, Thomas; Roberge, Jean-Michel; Öhman, Karin; Lämås, Tomas; Hynynen, Jari; Juutinen, Artti; Mönkkönen, Mikko; Nilsson, Urban; Lundmark, Tomas; Nordin, Annika

    2017-07-15

    A variety of modeling approaches can be used to project the future development of forest systems, and help to assess the implications of different management alternatives for biodiversity and ecosystem services. This diversity of approaches does however present both an opportunity and an obstacle for those trying to decide which modeling technique to apply, and interpreting the management implications of model output. Furthermore, the breadth of issues relevant to addressing key questions related to forest ecology, conservation biology, silviculture, economics, requires insights stemming from a number of distinct scientific disciplines. As forest planners, conservation ecologists, ecological economists and silviculturalists, experienced with modeling trade-offs and synergies between biodiversity and wood biomass production, we identified fifteen key considerations relevant to assessing the pros and cons of alternative modeling approaches. Specifically we identified key considerations linked to study question formulation, modeling forest dynamics, forest processes, study landscapes, spatial and temporal aspects, and the key response metrics - biodiversity and wood biomass production, as well as dealing with trade-offs and uncertainties. We also provide illustrative examples from the modeling literature stemming from the key considerations assessed. We use our findings to reiterate the need for explicitly addressing and conveying the limitations and uncertainties of any modeling approach taken, and the need for interdisciplinary research efforts when addressing the conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of environmental resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Present and projected future mean radiant temperature for three European cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorsson, Sofia; Rayner, David; Lindberg, Fredrik; Monteiro, Ana; Katzschner, Lutz; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Campe, Sabrina; Katzschner, Antje; Konarska, Janina; Onomura, Shiho; Velho, Sara; Holmer, Björn

    2017-09-01

    Present-day and projected future changes in mean radiant temperature, T mrt in one northern, one mid-, and one southern European city (represented by Gothenburg, Frankfurt, and Porto), are presented, and the concept of hot spots is adopted. Air temperature, T a , increased in all cities by 2100, but changes in solar radiation due to changes in cloudiness counterbalanced or exacerbated the effects on T mrt. The number of days with high T mrt in Gothenburg was relatively unchanged at the end of the century (+1 day), whereas it more than doubled in Frankfurt and tripled in Porto. The use of street trees to reduce daytime radiant heat load was analyzed using hot spots to identify where trees could be most beneficial. Hot spots, although varying in intensity and frequency, were generally confined to near sunlit southeast-southwest facing walls, in northeast corner of courtyards, and in open spaces in all three cities. By adding trees in these spaces, the radiant heat load can be reduced, especially in spaces with no or few trees. A set of design principles for reducing the radiant heat load is outlined based on these findings and existing literature.

  14. Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in East Asia Simulated by the MRI CGCM2

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Akio KITOH; Masahiro HOSAKA; Yukimasa ADACHI; Kenji KAMIGUCHI

    2005-01-01

    Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21st century and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-member ensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model (MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios. It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while both the frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a few percent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the rest of the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases, suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. South China is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitation intensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warming and an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone,which may be related with an El Ni(n)o-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease in summer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipit ation contrast more in the future.

  15. New Zealand's neurologist workforce: a pragmatic analysis of demand, supply and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranta, Annemarei Anna; Tiwari, Priyesh; Mottershead, John; Abernethy, David; Simpson, Mark; Brickell, Kiri; Lynch, Christopher; Walker, Elizabeth; Frith, Richard

    2015-08-07

    To estimate current and future specialist neurologist demand and supply to assist with health sector planning. Current demand for the neurology workforce in New Zealand was assessed using neuroepidemiological data. To assess current supply, all New Zealand neurology departments were surveyed to determine current workforce and estimate average neurologist productivity. Projections were made based on current neurologists anticipated retirement rates and addition of new neurologists based on current training positions. We explored several models to address the supply-demand gap. The current supply of neurologists in New Zealand is 36 full-time equivalents (FTE), insufficient to meet current demand of 74 FTE. Demand will grow over time and if status quo is maintained the gap will widen. Pressures on healthcare dollars are ever increasing and we cannot expect to address the identified service gap by immediately doubling the number of neurologists. Instead we propose a 12-year strategic approach with investments to enhance service productivity, strengthen collaborative efforts between specialists and general service providers, moderately increase the number of neurologists and neurology training positions, and develop highly skilled non-specialists including trained.

  16. Characteristics of the process of culture development project activities (culture of social engineering) at the future bachelors of social work

    OpenAIRE

    Natalya I. Nikitina; Elena Yu. Romanovaa; Tatyana V. Vasilyeva; Irina N. Nikishina; Veronica M. Grebennikova

    2017-01-01

    In modern Russia professional activity productivity of social work specialist depends largely on his abilities and skills in the field of social design. University graduate`s (social work bachelor`s) high level of professional-project activity culture can be regarded as one of the necessary conditions of successful labour market adaptation of young specialists in social sphere institutions. The article discusses various aspects of future social work bachelors` vocational project activity cult...

  17. Navigating Bioethical Waters: Two Pilot Projects in Problem-Based Learning for Future Bioscience and Biotechnology Professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Roberta M; Levine, Aaron D; Kirkman, Robert; Blake, Laura Palucki; Drake, Matthew

    2016-12-01

    We believe that the professional responsibility of bioscience and biotechnology professionals includes a social responsibility to contribute to the resolution of ethically fraught policy problems generated by their work. It follows that educators have a professional responsibility to prepare future professionals to discharge this responsibility. This essay discusses two pilot projects in ethics pedagogy focused on particularly challenging policy problems, which we call "fractious problems". The projects aimed to advance future professionals' acquisition of "fractious problem navigational" skills, a set of skills designed to enable broad and deep understanding of fractious problems and the design of good policy resolutions for them. A secondary objective was to enhance future professionals' motivation to apply these skills to help their communities resolve these problems. The projects employed "problem based learning" courses to advance these learning objectives. A new assessment instrument, "Skills for Science/Engineering Ethics Test" (SkillSET), was designed and administered to measure the success of the courses in doing so. This essay first discusses the rationale for the pilot projects, and then describes the design of the pilot courses and presents the results of our assessment using SkillSET in the first pilot project and the revised SkillSET 2.0 in the second pilot project. The essay concludes with discussion of observations and results.

  18. Future projections of fire danger in Brazilian biomes in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libonati, Renata; Silva, Patrícia; DaCamara, Carlos; Bastos, Ana

    2016-04-01

    In the global context, Brazil is one of the regions more severely affected by fire occurrences, with important consequences in the global CO2 balance, the state of the Amazon forest and the ecological diversity of the region. Brazil is also one of the few regions experiencing a raise in annual mean temperature above 2.5o during the 20th century, which may further increase between 2o and 7o until 2100 and, likely, be accompanied by a decrease in precipitation [1]. As the fire occurrence and severity largely depends on these two variables, it is worth assessing the evolution of fire danger for the coming decades. In order to obtain a detailed characterization of the future fire patterns in the different biomes of Brazil, we use outputs from a regional-downscaling of the EC-Earth climate model at 0.44 degrees spatial resolution for two future scenarios, an intermediate (RCP4.5) and a more severe (RCP8.5) one. We use a fire danger index specifically developed for the Brazilian climate and biome characteristics, the IFR from INPE. This index relies on values of maximum temperature, accumulated precipitation over different periods, minimum relative humidity and vegetation cover to estimate the likelihood of fire occurrence. We find a systematic increase of the days with critical fire risk, which is more pronounced in RCP8.5 and mostly affects months when fire activity takes place. Temperature increase is the most determinant factor for the increase in fire danger in the dry regions of savannah and shrubland, a result to be expected as fuel is already very dry. [1] Collins, M., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W.J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A.J. Weaver and M. Wehner, 2013: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on

  19. Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gourdji, Sharon M; Sibley, Adam M; Lobell, David B

    2013-01-01

    Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (T crit ), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980–2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence (r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and T crit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for T crit . Increasing T crit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over T crit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a

  20. A Rapid History of Futures Thought: From Montgolfier to the Manhattan Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, I. F.

    1984-01-01

    The literature of future studies has grown up rapidly in times of technological innovation and social change. Particular events and publications that have contributed most to the development of the futures movement around the world are highlighted. (Author/RM)

  1. SLUDGE MASS REDUCTION: PRIMARY COMPOSITIONAL FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE MELT RATE FOR FUTURE SLUDGE BATCH PROJECTIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newell, J; Miller, D; Stone, M; Pickenheim, B

    2008-01-01

    The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) was tasked to provide an assessment of the downstream impacts to the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) of decisions regarding the implementation of Al-dissolution to support sludge mass reduction and processing. Based on future sludge batch compositional projections from the Liquid Waste Organization's (LWO) sludge batch plan, assessments have been made with respect to the ability to maintain comparable projected operating windows for sludges with and without Al-dissolution. As part of that previous assessment, candidate frits were identified to provide insight into melt rate for average sludge batches representing with and without Al-dissolution flowsheets. Initial melt rate studies using the melt rate furnace (MRF) were performed using five frits each for Cluster 2 and Cluster 4 compositions representing average without and with Al-dissolution. It was determined, however, that the REDOX endpoint (Fe 2+ /ΣFe for the glass) for Clusters 2 and 4 resulted in an overly oxidized feed which negatively affected the initial melt rate tests. After the sludge was adjusted to a more reduced state, additional testing was performed with frits that contained both high and low concentrations of sodium and boron oxides. These frits were selected strictly based on the ability to ascertain compositional trends in melt rate and did not necessarily apply to any acceptability criteria for DWPF processing. The melt rate data are in general agreement with historical trends observed at SRNL and during processing of SB3 (Sludge Batch 3)and SB4 in DWPF. When MAR acceptability criteria were applied, Frit 510 was seen to have the highest melt rate at 0.67 in/hr for Cluster 2 (without Al-dissolution), which is compositionally similar to SB4. For Cluster 4 (with Al-dissolution), which is compositionally similar to SB3, Frit 418 had the highest melt rate at 0.63 in/hr. Based on this data, there appears to be a slight advantage of the Frit

  2. Requirements for future control room and visualisation features in the Web-of-Cells framework defined in the ELECTRA project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tornelli, Carlo; Zuelli, Roberto; Marinell, Mattia

    2017-01-01

    project, that proposes a new Web-of-Cell (WoC) power system control architecture. Dedicated visualisation features are proposed, aimed to support the control room operators activities in a WoC-oriented approach. Furthermore, the work takes into account the point of view of network operators about future...

  3. Oxide and nitride TRU-fuels: lessons drawn from the CONFIRM and FUTURE projects of the 5. European framework programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pillon, S.; Wallenius, J.

    2004-01-01

    The FUTURE and CONFIRM projects address the issue of the design and fabrication of respectively oxide and nitride fuels for the transmutation in accelerator driven system. This paper compares advantages and drawbacks of TRU oxides and nitrides in terms of performance and fabricability. (authors)

  4. The activities of the committee 'Kernreaktorregelung' (nuclear reactor control) in the past few years and future projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knecht, O.

    1976-01-01

    Results achieved so far and future projects are portrayed in detail: 1) VDI/VDE 3527-Graphical symbols for nuclear reactor control; 2) VDI/VDE 3528-Special terms and definitons for nuclear reactor control; 3) 8 data sheets on reactor control; 4) VDI/VDE 3530-Characterisation of reactor control rod drives. (orig./HP) [de

  5. Projecting county-level populations under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley J. Zarnoch; H. Ken Cordell; Carter J. Betz

    2010-01-01

    County-level population projections from 2010 to 2060 are developed under three national population growth scenarios for reporting in the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. These population growth scenarios are tied to global futures scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a program within the United Nations...

  6. Consequences of simulating terrestrial N dynamics for projecting future terrestrial C storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaehle, S.; Friend, A. D.; Friedlingstein, P.

    2009-04-01

    We present results of a new land surface model, O-CN, which includes a process-based coupling between the terrestrial cycling of energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen. The model represents the controls of the terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling on carbon (C) pools and fluxes through photosynthesis, respiration, changes in allocation patterns, as well as soil organic matter decomposition, and explicitly accounts for N leaching and gaseous losses. O-CN has been shown to give realistic results in comparison to observations at a wide range of scales, including in situ flux measurements, productivity databases, and atmospheric CO2 concentration data. Notably, O-CN simulates realistic responses of net primary productivity, foliage area, and foliage N content to elevated atmospheric [CO2] as evidenced at free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) sites (Duke, Oak Ridge). We re-examine earlier model-based assessments of the terrestrial C sequestration potential using a global transient O-CN simulation driven by increases in atmospheric [CO2], N deposition and climatic changes over the 21st century. We find that accounting for terrestrial N cycling about halves the potential to store C in response to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations; mainly due to a reduction of the net C uptake in temperate and boreal forests. Nitrogen deposition partially alleviates the effect of N limitation, but is by far not sufficient to compensate for the effect completely. These findings underline the importance of an accurate representation of nutrient limitations in future projections of the terrestrial net CO2 exchanges and therefore land-climate feedback studies.

  7. Analysis of the efficiency of some international projects in Ukraine for future of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radovskaya, O.; Pysmennaya, U.; Zenyuk, D.

    2001-01-01

    The report presents the review of the status and perspectives for nuclear energy development in Ukraine. The role of certain projects for young experts is evaluated - among these projects the basic one is the IAEA Technical Co-operation Project UKR/4/006 S trategy for Nuclear Energy Development , as well as projects of the Ukrainian Nuclear Society and the Institute of Nuclear and Energy Law. (authors)

  8. Long-term trends in U.S. gas supply and prices: 1992 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.J.

    1991-12-01

    The paper summarizes the gas supply outlook in the 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, which has been adopted as a major input to the planning cycle leading to the development of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) 1993 research and development program. The 1992 projection presents the GRI planning outlook for the economic and the energy supply and demand situation to the year 2010. It was prepared independently by GRI using publicly available data and a framework of commercially available models that GRI has developed over several years. It is not derived from the views of GRI member companies. The 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection presents an optimistic outlook for the U.S. gas industry in which increased gas supply can be obtained at competitive prices. The gas prices in the 1992 projection support growth in all major U.S. gas supply sources: lower-48, Alaska, Canada, Mexico, and LNG. By about 2005, U.S. gas supply is at its highest level ever. By 2010, U.S. gas supply has grown to almost 25 quads. U.S. gas production increases 2.6 quads between 1990 and 2010; imports increase 2.2 quads. Although imports do not increase as much as U.S. gas production, they account for an increased share of U.S. gas supply. The import share grows from 7 percent to 12 percent over the projection period. Supplemental gas sources provide about 1 percent of U.S. gas supply

  9. Future wave and wind projections for United States and United-States-affiliated Pacific Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storlazzi, Curt D.; Shope, James B.; Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christine A.; Barnard, Patrick L.

    2015-01-01

    Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change are not well understood. Spatially and temporally varying waves dominate coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact coastal infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of the islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast through the year 2100 using wind parameter outputs from four atmosphere-ocean global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5, for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 that correspond to moderately mitigated and unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Wind fields from the global climate models were used to drive a global WAVEWATCH-III wave model and generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific for the years 1976–2005 (historical), 2026–2045 (mid-century projection), and 2085–2100 (end-of-century projection). Although the results show some spatial heterogeneity, overall the December-February extreme significant wave heights, defined as the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave height time-series data modeled within a specific period, increase from present to mid-century and then decrease toward the end of the century; June-August extreme wave heights increase throughout the century within the Central region of the study area; and September-November wave heights decrease strongly throughout the 21st century, displaying the largest and most widespread decreases of any season. Peak wave periods increase east of the International Date Line during the December-February and June-August seasons under RCP4.5. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, wave periods decrease west of the International Date Line during December-February but increase in the eastern half of the study area. Otherwise, wave periods decrease

  10. "Projeto Rios" (Rivers Project) a methodology of classroom of the future (northern Portugal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Ana

    2013-04-01

    in a placard at school, in the school website and in local parish council. With this project we promote scientific curiosity and implements to the experimental scientific method, with the collection and recording of data and its discussion. Also, it appears that the happiness, the well-being, the interest, the spirit of cooperation and commitment shown by the students was a constant in all outputs and performed work. The young people were very receptive to all proposals and they were the first to saying "We want to go to the river". They have the responsibility of the vigilance and protection of their selected river section and they will realize that the future will be so much better if we preserve our natural heritage, as rivers are.

  11. Functional and Structural Findings of Neurodegeneration in Early Stages of Diabetic Retinopathy: Cross-sectional Analyses of Baseline Data of the EUROCONDOR Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Ana Rita; Ribeiro, Luísa; Bandello, Francesco; Lattanzio, Rosangela; Egan, Catherine; Frydkjaer-Olsen, Ulrik; García-Arumí, José; Gibson, Jonathan; Grauslund, Jakob; Harding, Simon P; Lang, Gabriele E; Massin, Pascale; Midena, Edoardo; Scanlon, Peter; Aldington, Stephen J; Simão, Sílvia; Schwartz, Christian; Ponsati, Berta; Porta, Massimo; Costa, Miguel Ângelo; Hernández, Cristina; Cunha-Vaz, José; Simó, Rafael

    2017-09-01

    This cross-sectional study evaluated the relationship between 1 ) functional and structural measurements of neurodegeneration in the initial stages of diabetic retinopathy (DR) and 2 ) the presence of neurodegeneration and early microvascular impairment. We analyzed baseline data of 449 patients with type 2 diabetes enrolled in the European Consortium for the Early Treatment of Diabetic Retinopathy (EUROCONDOR) study (NCT01726075). Functional studies by multifocal electroretinography (mfERG) evaluated neurodysfunction, and structural measurements using spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) evaluated neurodegeneration. The mfERG P1 amplitude was more sensitive than the P1 implicit time and was lower in patients with Early Treatment of Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) level 20-35 than in patients with ETDRS level <20 ( P = 0.005). In 58% of patients, mfERG abnormalities were present in the absence of visible retinopathy. Correspondence between SD-OCT thinning and mfERG abnormalities was shown in 67% of the eyes with ETDRS <20 and in 83% of the eyes with ETDRS level 20-35. Notably, 32% of patients with ETDRS 20-35 presented no abnormalities in mfERG or SD-OCT. We conclude that there is a link between mfERG and SD-OCT measurements that increases with the presence of microvascular impairment. However, a significant proportion of patients in our particular study population (ETDRS ≤35) had normal ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer thickness and normal mfERG findings. We raise the hypothesis that neurodegeneration may play a role in the pathogenesis of DR in many but not in all patients with type 2 diabetes. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

  12. The Challenge of Integrating OHS into Industrial Project Risk Management: Proposal of a Methodological Approach to Guide Future Research (Case of Mining Projects in Quebec, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adel Badri

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Although risk management tools are put to good use in many industrial sectors, some large projects have been met with numerous problems due to failure to take occupational health and safety (OHS into consideration. In spite of the high level of risk and uncertainty associated with many industrial projects, the number of studies of methods for managing all known risks systematically remains small. Under effervescent economic conditions, industries must meet several challenges associated with frequent project start-ups. In highly complex and uncertain environments, rigorous management of risk remains indispensable for avoiding threats to the success of projects. Many businesses seek continually to create and improve integrated approaches to risk management. This article puts into perspective the complexity of the challenge of integrating OHS into industrial project risk management. A conceptual and methodological approach is proposed to guide future research focused on meeting this challenge. The approach is based on applying multi-disciplinary research modes to a complex industrial context in order to identify all scenarios likely to contain threats to humans or the environment. A case study is used to illustrate the potential of the proposed approach for application and its contribution to meeting the challenge of taking OHS into consideration. On-site researchers were able to develop a new approach that helped two mining companies in Quebec (Canada to achieve successful integration of OHS into expansion projects.

  13. Anticipating the use of future things: towards a framework for prospective use analysis in innovation design projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Julien; Buisine, Stéphanie; Aoussat, Améziane

    2013-11-01

    Anticipation of future product use is a persistent issue in User-Centered Design. In this paper, we argue that one obstacle to early integration of use analysis in innovation design is overreliance on retrospective use analysis, i.e. that which is based on clear references to existing products or activities. In contrast, innovation design projects are full of uncertainty, leading to a need for prospective analysis. After having described some limitations of prospective use analysis, we contend that creativity tools may be used to assist the anticipation of future product use, by allowing designers to approach the variability of situations of future use in a structured manner rather than by "muddling through". We illustrate the expected benefits of this approach with two case studies, and describe some prospects for future research and practice in ergonomics. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. SiC/SiC fuel cladding R and D Project 'SCARLET': Status and future plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kishimoto, Hirotatsu; Kohyama, Akira

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides the recent progress in SiC/SiC development towards early utilisation for LWRs based on NITE method. After the March 11 Disaster in East-Japan, ensuring safe technology for LWR became a top priority R and D in nuclear energy policy of Japan. Along this line, replacement of Zircaloy claddings with SiC/SiC based fuel cladding is becoming one of the most attractive options and a MEXT fund based project, SCARLET, and a METI fund based project have been launched as 5-year termed projects at Muroran Institute of Technology. These projects care for NITE process for making long SiC/SiC fuel pins and connecting technology integration. The SCARLET project also includes coolant compatibility and irradiation effect evaluations as LWR and LMFBR materials. The outline and the present status of the SCARLET project will be briefly introduced in the present paper. (authors)

  15. The European Donor Health Care Project: fulfilling needs and challenges for the future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.J.M. van den Burg

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The Donor Health Care project is a EU granted project to develop a learning programme for professionals working in the field of Donor Health Care. The innovation of this curriculum is the focus on all donors, irrespective of whether they donate blood, cells, tissues or organs. This article describes the background of the project and the current possibilities and limitations of European accreditation, distance learning and Master degrees.

  16. The importance of hot drought in providing more useful, and higher confidence, projections of future climatic, hydrologic, and ecosystem impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B. H.

    2017-12-01

    Often cited as a general guide to future climatic change, "the wet get wetter, and the dry get drier" is a misleading way to look towards the future for many regions of the globe, just as the simple use of multi-model ensemble projections of temperature and precipitation change averaged over many years can also be quite misleading for real-world planning and decision-making. Factors that support these assertions are multi-fold. First, we know with high confidence that warming will continue as long as greenhouse gas emissions continue. Second, continued warming will act to make droughts more frequent, longer and more severe in many regions. Even in the absence of precipitation declines, increases in evaporation and evapotranspiration, among other things, will drive regional drying. It is misleading to suggest to decision-makers that although the future may see an increase in drought risk, a projected increase in mean precipitation will counter-balance the increased drought risk. This counter-balancing will be absent during periods of precipitation-dominated drought. Moreover, projections of precipitation change are usually associated with much less confidence than projections of warming. For example, in places like the headwaters of the Colorado and Rio Grande Rivers, or East Africa, many models suggest we should be seeing an increase in precipitation, when in fact we are only seeing significant warming. Moreover, paleoclimatic evidence suggests that state-of-the-art Earth System Models may underestimate the risk of future multi-decadal droughts, even though these droughts have occurred in many regions during the last 2000 years. This reality suggests that even in regions that do see modest increases in mean precipitation, there will likely be periods in the future characterized by decades of below 20th century mean precipitation coupled with unprecedented warmth. Hot drought may be a much more widespread and serious threat than widely recognized.

  17. The future of AIDS in Africa: lessons from two scenario projects ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Scenario planning or futures studies have their origin in military planning, but have also been used with great success in the private sector, most notably in the energy industry. UNAIDS and the South African financial services group Metropolitan each recently published a set of scenarios regarding the future impact of ...

  18. Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shindell, D.T.; Faluvegi, G.; Stevenson, D.S.; Krol, M.C.; Emmons, L.K.; Lamarque, J.F.; Petron, G.; Dentener, F.J.; Ellingsen, K.; Schultz, M.G.; Wild, O.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C.S.; Bergmann, D.J.; Bey, I.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Collins, W.J.; Derwent, R.G.; Doherty, R.M.; Drevet, J.; Eskes, H.J.; Fiore, A.M.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D.A.; Horowitz, L.W.; Isaksen, I.S.A.; Lawrence, M.G.; Montanaro, V.; Muller, J.F.; Pitari, G.; Prather, M.J.; Pyle, J.A.; Rast, S.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Sanderson, M.G.; Savage, N.H.; Strahan, S.E.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Unger, N.; Noije, van T.P.C.; Zeng, G.

    2006-01-01

    We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show

  19. Identification of observables for future grids - The framework developed in the ELECTRA project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visscher, K.; Marinelli, M.; Morch, A.Z.; Jakobsen, S.H.

    2015-01-01

    The main subject of this paper is the classification and identification of observables for present and future grids. In order to make an inventory of present and potentially new observables, a systematic classification and identification of observables for future grids is conducted. After first

  20. Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: comparison with observations and projected near-future changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shindell, D.T.; Krol, M.C.

    2006-01-01

    We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-ofthe- art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show

  1. Fisher research and the Kings River Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Project: current results and future efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian B. Boroski; Richard T. Golightly; Amie K. Mazzoni; Kimberly A. Sager

    2002-01-01

    The Kings River Sustainable Forest Ecosystems Project was initiated on the Kings River Ranger District of the Sierra National Forest, California, in 1993, with fieldwork beginning in 1994. Knowledge of the ecology of the fisher (Martes pennanti) in the Project area, and in the Sierra Nevada of California in general, is insufficient to develop...

  2. Towards the automotive HMI of the future: Overview of the AIDE - Integrated project results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amditis, A.; Andreone, L.; Pagle, K.; Markkula, G.; Deregibus, E.; Romera Rue, M.; Bellotti, F.; Engelsberg, A.; Brouwer, R.; Peters, B.; Gloria, A. de

    2010-01-01

    The Adaptive Integrated Driver-vehicle interfacE (AIDE) is an integrated project funded by the European Commission in the Sixth Framework Programme. The project, which involves 31 partners from the European automotive industry and academia, deals with behavioral and technical issues related to

  3. Project Reinvest: Invest in America's Future by Reinvesting in America's Community Colleges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, Robert H.

    To help raise the level of funding for the nation's community colleges, Project Reinvest was created to help colleges communicate their role in solving the nation's problems and the importance of adequate funding. Specifically, the project seeks to encourage colleges' participation in efforts to develop a genuine understanding of their…

  4. The implications of regional and national demographic projections for future GMS costs in Ireland through to 2026.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Conway, Aisling

    2014-10-21

    As the health services in Ireland have become more resource-constrained, pressure has increased to reduce public spending on community drug schemes such as General Medical Services (GMS) drug prescribing and to understand current and future trends in prescribing. The GMS scheme covers approximately 37% of the Irish population in 2011 and entitles them, inter alia, to free prescription drugs and appliances. This paper projects the effects of future changes in population, coverage, claims rates and average claims cost on GMS costs in Ireland.

  5. Integrated planning: A baseline development perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, L.; Chang, D.

    1994-01-01

    The FEMP Baseline establishes the basis for integrating environmental activity technical requirements with their cost and schedule elements. The result is a path forward to successfully achieving the FERMCO mission. Specific to cost management, the FEMP Baseline has been incorporate into the FERMCO Project Control System (PCS) to provide a time-phased budget plan against which contractor performance is measured with an earned value management system. The result is the Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB), an important tool for keeping cost under control

  6. Trachoma in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Results of 46 Baseline Prevalence Surveys Conducted with the Global Trachoma Mapping Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilangalanga, Janvier; Ndjemba, Jean Marie; Uvon, Pitchouna A; Kibangala, Felix M; Mwandulo, Jean-Lebone Safari B; Mavula, Nicaise; Ndombe, Martin; Kazadi, Junior; Limbaka, Henry; Cohn, Daniel; Tougoue, Jean-Jacques; Kabore, Achille; Rotondo, Lisa; Willis, Rebecca; Bio, Amadou Alfa; Kadri, Boubacar; Bakhtiari, Ana; Ngondi, Jeremiah M; Solomon, Anthony W

    2017-08-29

    Trachoma was suspected to be endemic in parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). We aimed to estimate prevalences of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF), trichiasis, and water and sanitation (WASH) indicators in suspected-endemic Health Zones. A population-based prevalence survey was undertaken in each of 46 Health Zones across nine provinces of DRC, using Global Trachoma Mapping Project methods. A two-stage cluster random sampling design was used in each Health Zone, whereby 25 villages (clusters) and 30 households per cluster were sampled. Consenting eligible participants (children aged 1-9 years and adults aged ≥15 years) were examined for trachoma by GTMP-certified graders; households were assessed for access to WASH. A total of 32,758 households were surveyed, and 141,853 participants (98.2% of those enumerated) were examined for trachoma. Health Zone-level TF prevalence in 1-9-year-olds ranged from 1.9-41.6%. Among people aged ≥15 years, trichiasis prevalences ranged from 0.02-5.1% (95% CI 3.3-6.8). TF prevalence in 1-9-year-olds was ≥5% in 30 Health Zones, while trichiasis prevalence was ≥0.2% in 37 Health Zones. Trachoma is a public health problem in 39 of 46 Health Zones surveyed. To meet elimination targets, 37 Health Zones require expanded trichiasis surgery services while 30 health zones require antibiotics, facial cleanliness and environmental improvement interventions. Survey data suggest that trachoma is widespread: further surveys are warranted.

  7. Lessons learned from current Qinshan CANDU project and the impact on future NPP's

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedges, K. R.; Didsbury, R.; Yu, S. K. W.

    2000-01-01

    AECL has adopted an evolutionary approach to the development of the CANDU 6 and CANDU 9 Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) designs. Each new NPP project benefits from previous projects and contains an increasing number of fully proven enhancements. In accordance with this evolutionary design approach, AECL has built on the Wolsong and Qinshan successes and the solid performance of the reference CANDU stations to define, review and implement the enhancements for the CANDU 9 NPP. Some of these enhancements include fully integrated project information systems and databases, safety enhancements coming from PSA studies and licensing activities, distributed control systems for plant-wide control and an advanced control center which addresses human factors engineering concepts. Examples of the Qinshan CANDU project delivery enhancements are the utilization of electronic engineering tools for the complete plant, and the linking of these tools with the project material management system and document management systems. The project information is reviewed and approved at the engineering office in Canada and then transmitted to site electronically. Once the electronic data is at site the information packages are extracted as necessary to enable construction and facilitate contract needs with minimum effort. This paper will provide details of the CANDU Qinshan project experiences as well as describing some of the corresponding CANDU 9 enhancements. (author)

  8. MedHySol: Future federator project of massive production of solar hydrogen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmah, Bouziane; Harouadi, Farid; Chader, Samira; Belhamel, Maiouf; M' Raoui, Abdelhamid; Abdeladim, Kamel [CDER, BP 62, Route de l' Observatoire, Bouzareah, Alger (Algeria); Benmoussa, H. [LESEI, Universite de Batna, Batna (Algeria); Cherigui, Adel Nasser [Universite Joseph Fourier Grenoble I, BP 87, Saint-Martin-D' Heres 38400 (France); Etievant, Claude [CETH, Innov' valley Entreprises, 91460 Marcoussis (France)

    2009-06-15

    Mediterranean Hydrogen Solar (MedHySol) is a federator project for development of a massive hydrogen production starting from solar energy and its exportation within a framework of a Euro-Maghrebian Cooperation project for industrial and energetic needs in the Mediterranean basin. The proposal of this project is included in the Algiers Declaration's on Hydrogen from Renewable Origin following the organization of the first international workshop on hydrogen which was held in 2005. Algeria is the privileged site to receive the MedHySol platform. The objective of the first step of the project is to realize a technological platform allowing the evaluation of emergent technologies of hydrogen production from solar energy with a significant size (10-100 kW) and to maintain the development of energetic rupture technologies. The second step of the project is to implement the most effective and less expensive technologies to pilot great projects (1-1000 MW). In this article we present the potentialities and the feasibility of MedHySol, as well as the fundamental elements for a scientific and technical supervision of this great project. (author)

  9. SO-QT: Collaborative Tool to Project the Future Space Object Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stupl, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Earth orbit gets increasingly congested, a challenge to space operators, both in governments and industry. We present a web tool that provides: 1) data on todays and the historic space object environments, by aggregating object-specific tracking data; and 2) future trends through a collaboration platform to collect information on planed launches. The collaborative platform enables experts to pool and compare their data in order to generate future launch scenarios. The tool is intended to support decision makers and mission designers while they investigate future missions and scholars as they develop strategies for space traffic management.

  10. Future Flows Climate: an ensemble of 1-km climate change projections for hydrological application in Great Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Prudhomme

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The dataset Future Flows Climate was developed as part of the project ''Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications, and to enable climate change uncertainty and climate variability to be accounted for in the assessment of their possible impacts on the environment.

    Future Flows Climate is derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE that is part of the basis of UKCP09 and includes projections in available precipitation (water available to hydrological processes after snow and ice storages have been accounted for and potential evapotranspiration. It corresponds to an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1950 to December 2098, each a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3. Data are provided on a 1-km grid over the HadRM3 land areas at a daily (available precipitation and monthly (PE time step as netCDF files.

    Because systematic biases in temperature and precipitation were found between HadRM3-PPE and gridded temperature and precipitation observations for the 1962–1991 period, a monthly bias correction procedure was undertaken, based on a linear correction for temperature and a quantile-mapping correction (using the gamma distribution for precipitation followed by a spatial downscaling. Available precipitation was derived from the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature time series using a simple elevation-dependant snow-melt model. Potential evapotranspiration time series were calculated for each month using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equations and bias-corrected temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed from HadRM3-PPE along with latitude of the grid and the day of the year.

    Future Flows Climate is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. It is the

  11. Identification of observables for future grids – the framework developed in the ELECTRA project

    OpenAIRE

    Visscher, Klaas; Marinelli, Mattia; Morch, Andrei Z.; Jakobsson, Sigurd Hofsmo

    2015-01-01

    The main subject of this paper is the classification and identification of observables for present and future grids. In order to make an inventory of present and potentially new observables, a systematic classification and identification of observables for future grids is conducted. After first introducing some fundamental definitions for observables, observables are further classified by the characteristic time scale where they are used in the physical power system. For actual use in control...

  12. Teaching with Soap: Examples of Project-Based Units for Students and Future Educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Ivan; Hamed, Kastro M.

    2016-01-01

    This article describes the use of project-based instruction in activities and labs intended to develop higher-order thinking skills with high school students and pre-service teachers through the use of soap making.

  13. Radio frequency identification (RFID) tagging for material tracking and future asset management : research project capsule.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-01

    Current Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (DOTD) : practice allows multiple mixtures or materials to be submitted and subsequently : used during a highway construction project. Such materials include mechanically : stabilized ear...

  14. CHASE-PL—Future Hydrology Data Set: Projections of Water Balance and Streamflow for the Vistula and Odra Basins, Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikołaj Piniewski

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available There is considerable concern that the water resources of Central and Eastern Europe region can be adversely affected by climate change. Projections of future water balance and streamflow conditions can be obtained by forcing hydrological models with the output from climate models. In this study, we employed the SWAT hydrological model driven with an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX climate simulations to generate future hydrological projections for the Vistula and Odra basins in two future horizons (2024–2050 and 2074–2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The data set consists of three parts: (1 model inputs; (2 raw model outputs; (3 aggregated model outputs. The first one allows the users to reproduce the outputs or to create the new ones. The second one contains the simulated time series of 10 variables simulated by SWAT: precipitation, snow melt, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, soil water content, percolation, surface runoff, baseflow, water yield and streamflow. The third one consists of the multi-model ensemble statistics of the relative changes in mean seasonal and annual variables developed in a GIS format. The data set should be of interest of climate impact scientists, water managers and water-sector policy makers. In any case, it should be noted that projections included in this data set are associated with high uncertainties explained in this data descriptor paper.

  15. Reflections on Ethical Dilemmas in Working with So-Called "Vulnerable" and "Hard-to-Reach" Groups: Experiences from the Foodways and Futures Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gombert, Karolina; Douglas, Flora; McArdle, Karen; Carlisle, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    This article reflects on ethical limitations and dilemmas encountered during fieldwork of the Foodways and Futures project (2013-2016). Foodways and Futures is a qualitative action research project aimed at exploring the food choices of former homeless young people (aged 16-25) in Aberdeenshire. In Scotland, where over 13,000 young people become…

  16. The CIDEM project for integrating availability, operating experience and maintenance in the design of future nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Degrave, C.; Martin-Onraet, M.

    1998-01-01

    To minimize the kWh cost of future nuclear plants EDF has decided to implement the CIDEM project (French acronym for Design Integrating Availability, Operating Experience and Maintenance), an analytic and systematic process for studying new projects. The first CIDEM application is centered on the future French nuclear unit construction program, known as the REP 2000 Program but the approach could be applied to other Reactor type. The CIDEM studies at the beginning, were oriented to the issues strongly impacting the availability. They have concerned: planned outages, forced outages and preventive maintenance. The studies were carried out by a team grouping engineers from the 3 EDF's Divisions (Engineering-Generation-Research), and working together in a Concurrent Engineering-Mode. This team works in close collaboration with the vendors and the German Utilities involved in the REP 2000 EPR program. The implementation of the CIDEM process constitutes for EDF a new approach to the study of the new Nuclear Power Plant projects. The studies conducted in the availability field have already highlighted a number of critical points and have made it possible to establish a series of specifications for the REP 2000/EPR project. The integration in the design process of Preventive Maintenance and Logistic Support studies will allow a better control of the maintenance cost. The competitiveness of nuclear energy greatly depends on the success of such an approach. (author)

  17. Future of family support: Projected living arrangements and income sources of older people in Hong Kong up to 2030.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Kok-Hoe

    2016-06-01

    The study aims to project future trends in living arrangements and access to children's cash contributions and market income sources among older people in Hong Kong. A cell-based model was constructed by combining available population projections, labour force projections, an extrapolation of the historical trend in living arrangements based on national survey datasets and a regression model on income sources. Under certain assumptions, the proportion of older people living with their children may decline from 59 to 48% during 2006-2030. Although access to market income sources may improve slightly, up to 20% of older people may have no access to either children's financial support or market income sources, and will not live with their children by 2030. Family support is expected to contract in the next two decades. Public pensions should be expanded to protect financially vulnerable older people. © 2015 AJA Inc.

  18. Why are small scale demonstration projects important for the future of CCS?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leetaru, H. E.; Bauer, R. A.; McBride, J. H.; Freiburg, J. T.; Greenberg, S. E.

    2017-12-01

    Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is moving toward large-scale commercial projects and the U.S. Department of Energy is supporting a new CarbonSAFE initiative to assist in the development of a 50 million tonnes geologic storage project. This type of large commercial CCS project will rely on lessons learned from smaller DOE CCS projects such as the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) and the Illinois Industrial Carbon Capture and Storage (IL-ICCS) Project located one mile north of IBDP. Over a three year period ending 2014 IBDP injected almost one million tonnes of CO2 into the Mt. Simon Sandstone, and the IL-ICCS project which commenced injection in 2017 will inject another four million tonnes over a four year period. The IBDP has recorded microseismic events within the study area through continuous downhole seismic monitoring before, during, and after injection. Monitoring shows that microseismicity increased during injection and originate not only in the Cambrian Mt. Simon Sandstone (the target reservoir), but also in the underlying Argenta clastics and deeper Precambrian igneous rocks as SW-NE elongate clusters aligned in strike to the maximum in situ stress direction. An interpretation of site 3D seismic reflection data suggests that much of the microseismicity is proximal to interpreted faults that extend from the basement up into the lowermost Mt. Simon strata. The faults proximally associated with microseismic activity are oriented parallel with respect to the maximum stress direction. The seismic monitoring of the IBDP indicate that the assessment of induced seismic potential associated with commercial-scale CCS requires not only identification of a suitable reservoir and its petrophysical characteristics, but also the extent and orientation of existing faults and their relation to regional stress orientation. Assessment of regional fault orientation using 3D seismic reflection data can be extremely useful to understanding the risks of induced seismicity

  19. Divorced women at retirement: projections of economic well-being in the near future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butrica, B A; Iams, H M

    2000-01-01

    The Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) data system projects retirement income for persons retiring in the 1990s through 2020. Using those data, we examine the economic well-being of divorced women at retirement. The MINT data system improves upon previous estimates of Social Security benefits by: Measuring and projecting years of marriage to determine if the 10-year requirement has been met, Projecting lifetime earnings until retirement and eligibility for Social Security retirement benefits, and Estimating lifetime earnings of former spouses. MINT also makes independent projections of each retiree's income from pensions, assets, and earnings (for working beneficiaries). As a result of changes in marital patterns, MINT projects that the proportion of women who are divorced will increase. At the same time, the proportion of those women who are eligible for auxiliary benefits is projected to decrease, for two main reasons. First, changes in women's earnings and work patterns result in more women receiving retired-worker benefits based on their own earnings. Second, an increased number of divorced women will not meet the 10-year marriage requirement for auxiliary benefits. Despite the projected decrease over time in eligibility rates for auxiliary benefits, the level of Social Security benefits is projected to change little between the older and younger birth cohorts of divorced women entering retirement. According to the MINT data, the most vulnerable of divorced women will be those who have not met the 10-year marriage requirement. Poverty rates will be higher for them than for all other divorced women. This group of divorced women is projected to grow as more and more women divorce from shorter marriages. With more women divorcing and with fewer divorced women meeting the 10-year marriage requirement, the proportion of economically vulnerable aged women will increase when the baby boom retires. Further research is warranted on this long neglected subject

  20. Drawing from past experience to improve the management of future underground projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laughton, Christopher; Fermilab

    2004-01-01

    The high-energy physics community is currently developing plans to build underground facilities as part of its continuing investigation into the fundamental nature of matter. The tunnels and caverns are being designed to house a new generation of particle accelerators and detectors. For these projects, the cost of constructing the underground facility will constitute a major portion of the told capital cost and project viability can be greatly enhanced by paying careful attention to design and construction practices. A review of recently completed underground physics facilities and related literature has been undertaken to identify some management principles that have proven successful in underground practice. Projects reviewed were constructed in the United States of America and Europe using both Design-Build and more traditional Engineer-Procure-Construct contract formats. Although the physics projects reviewed tend to place relatively strict tolerances on alignment, stability and dryness, their overall requirements are similar to those of other tunnels and it is hoped that some of the principles promoted in this paper will be of value to the owner of any underground project

  1. Hydropower projects financing through the public private partnership a future powered by hydro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oprea, Traian; Teleanu, Mihai; Dobrescu, Dan

    2004-01-01

    /////In the frame of economy type that characterized Romania before 1990, the infrastructure and public utilities development, from which the hydropower sector is integral part, was ensured from public funds. The power generation belongs to the public services, which make profits on an average or long terms, in the benefit of the society. The demand for these services is increasing because of both economical increasing and the private sector weight in economy increasing. But, the quality increasing of these services needs investments, that is access to the long-term loans. Romanian banks are not prepared for long-run loans, and the international agencies don't have sufficient investment funds for all necessary projects. One of the options is or, could be, the transfer of entirely responsibility for infrastructure in the private sector hands, but this is not feasible in many cases. For this reason the government can choose a middle way realizing a private public partnership for solving the problem of the investment funds. In a general manner, this scenario consists in the fact of appealing to the private sector to finance, build and operate, for a limited period, an infrastructure, power or tourism project, necessary to the development. The impact zone between the public sector interest and private sector interest defined the concept of 'private public partnership' in its multiple alternatives (BOT, BOO, BOOT, ROT, etc.). The first official mentioning of a project in private public development under the name of BOOT 'Build, Own, Operate, Transfer' has been used in Turkey, in 1984, by the prime-minister ever since, Turgut Ozal, as part of a huge development program through the privatization in the power sector, infrastructure and tourism. The 'private public partnership' concept was studied and promoted, beginning with '95 years by the European Community too, with the view of this financing model utilization to the infrastructure projects development. One of the most

  2. PROJECT AND ACTON STAGE OD DESIGNING FUTURE MUSIC TEACHERS’ ETHNOCULTURAL TRAINING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Jiayu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In the article the issue of developing future music teachers’ ethnocultural training in the process of their professional training is revealed. The author emphasizes on the relevance of the issue as future music teachers’ ethnocultural training contributes to, on the one hand, completing mastering the national system of cultural values of native people by students of higher musical educational institutions and, on the other hand, involving perception and understanding of other nations’ cultural values, allowing future music teachers to transmit values expressed by the young generation to their professional activity. It is reported that the main feature of future music teachers’ ethnocultural training is a system of ethnic and cultural values which is the background of musical and psychological-pedagogical and art training; it is actively engaged as value tools musical folk art and national art. Value methods that are involved in the process of training are methods of traditional pedagogy, as well as the basis of pedagogical communication – people’s ethics. It is noted that developing future music teachers’ ethnocultural training requires designing the special methodology. The constant items of this methodology are thought to be the forms, methods, techniques and means of pedagogical and ethnopedagogical impacts as tools for developing students’ ethnopedagogical thinking in the process of musical and pedagogical activities; the system of controlling future music teachers’ ethnopedagogical, ethnological, ethnomusical knowledge and skills as a combination of methods that enables an opportunity to compare the level of mastering the knowledge and skills at different stages of educational process; to organize tuition using innovative technologies. The special attention is paid to professional and active component of this methodology. The diagnostic tests according to the criterion of “a degree of professional effectiveness in

  3. Genetic modification of the human germ line: The reasons why this project has no future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morange, Michel

    2015-01-01

    Modification of the human germ line has remained a distant but valuable objective for most biologists since the emergence of genetics (and even before). To study the historical transformations of this project, I have selected three periods - the 1930s, at the pinnacle of eugenics, around 1974 when molecular biology triumphed, and today - and have adopted three criteria to estimate the feasibility of this project: the state of scientific knowledge, the existence of suitable tools, and societal demands. Although the long-awaited techniques to modify the germ line are now available, I will show that most of the expectations behind this project have disappeared, or are considered as being reachable by highly different strategies. Copyright © 2015 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  4. Summary of developments and future projects in nuclear power plant control and instrumentation in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plas, Y. van der

    1990-01-01

    A general view is given on the developments and trends due to instrumentation and control of the two nuclear power plants in the Netherlands around the year 1989. Several projects, under which for classification of systems and components and for emergency operating procedures, are executed in both plants. An OSART mission initiated a project to make possible the periodic test of safety commands during operation. An other large project concerned the replacement of the process presentation system in Nuclear Power Plant Borssele. In the article several other developments due to the application of I and C in existing plants are outlined generally. Since 1974, no new nuclear power plants have been constructed in the Netherlands. (author). 2 figs

  5. High-Energy Physics Strategies and Future Large-Scale Projects

    CERN Document Server

    Zimmermann, F

    2015-01-01

    We sketch the actual European and international strategies and possible future facilities. In the near term the High Energy Physics (HEP) community will fully exploit the physics potential of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) through its high-luminosity upgrade (HL-LHC). Post-LHC options include a linear e+e- collider in Japan (ILC) or at CERN (CLIC), as well as circular lepton or hadron colliders in China (CepC/SppC) and Europe (FCC). We conclude with linear and circular acceleration approaches based on crystals, and some perspectives for the far future of accelerator-based particle physics.

  6. Projections of Future Precipitation Extremes Over Europe: A Multimodel Assessment of Climate Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph

    2017-10-01

    Projections of precipitation and its extremes over the European continent are analyzed in an extensive multimodel ensemble of 12 and 50 km resolution EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced by RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) aerosol and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. A systematic intercomparison with ENSEMBLES RCMs is carried out, such that in total information is provided for an unprecedentedly large data set of 100 RCM simulations. An evaluation finds very reasonable skill for the EURO-CORDEX models in simulating temporal and geographical variations of (mean and heavy) precipitation at both horizontal resolutions. Heavy and extreme precipitation events are projected to intensify across most of Europe throughout the whole year. All considered models agree on a distinct intensification of extremes by often more than +20% in winter and fall and over central and northern Europe. A reduction of rainy days and mean precipitation in summer is simulated by a large majority of models in the Mediterranean area, but intermodel spread between the simulations is large. In central Europe and France during summer, models project decreases in precipitation but more intense heavy and extreme rainfalls. Comparison to previous RCM projections from ENSEMBLES reveals consistency but slight differences in summer, where reductions in southern European precipitation are not as pronounced as previously projected. The projected changes of the European hydrological cycle may have substantial impact on environmental and anthropogenic systems. In particular, the simulations indicate a rising probability of summertime drought in southern Europe and more frequent and intense heavy rainfall across all of Europe.

  7. Evaluating the response of Lake Prespa (SW Balkan) to future climate change projections from a high-resolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos

    2017-04-01

    The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change. Projections suggest that the Balkans will experience precipitation and runoff decreases of up to 30% by 2100. However, these projections show large regional spatial variability. Mediterranean lake-wetland systems are particularly threatened by projected climate changes that compound increasingly intensive human impacts (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of individual lake-wetland hydrological responses to future climate changes, which requires fine-resolution projections and a good understanding of the impact of hydro-climate variability on individual lakes. Climate change may directly affect lake level (variability), volume and water temperatures. In turn, these variables influence lake-ecology, habitats and water quality. Land-use intensification and water abstraction multiply these climate-driven changes. To date, there are no projections of future water level and -temperature of individual Mediterranean lakes under future climate scenarios. These are, however, of crucial importance to steer preservation strategies on the relevant catchment-scale. Here we present the first projections of water level and -temperature of the Prespa Lakes covering the period 2071-2100. These lakes are of global significance for biodiversity, and of great regional socio-economic importance as a water resource and tourist attraction. Impact projections are assessed by the Regional Climate Model RCA4 of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) driven by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology global climate model MPI-ESM-LR under two RCP future emissions scenarios, the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, with the simulations carried out in the framework of EURO-CORDEX. Temperature, evapo(transpi)ration and

  8. The future of the Canadian oil sands: Engineering and project management advances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Madden, Peter; Morawski, Jacek

    2010-09-15

    Production technology and project management developments in Canada's oil sands industry, in the context of AMEC's experience as EPCM service provider, are discussed. Effective project management systems and workfront planning are critical to achieve cost and schedule targets and optimum construction execution. Construction Work Packages divide work into discrete pieces and Construction Work Execution Plans influence scheduling of engineering and procurement deliverables. AMEC's Engineering Data Warehouse works with intelligent engineering design tools to ensure information related to a piece of equipment is consistent across all systems. HSSE systems are proactively developed and AMEC's progressive improvement in safety performance is demonstrated.

  9. A single baseline ultrasound assessment of fibroid presence and size is strongly predictive of future uterine procedure: 8-year follow-up of randomly sampled premenopausal women aged 35-49 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baird, D D; Saldana, T M; Shore, D L; Hill, M C; Schectman, J M

    2015-12-01

    How well can a single baseline ultrasound assessment of fibroid burden (presence or absence of fibroids and size of largest, if present) predict future probability of having a major uterine procedure? During an 8-year follow-up period, the risk of having a major uterine procedure was 2% for those without fibroids and increased with fibroid size for those with fibroids, reaching 47% for those with fibroids ≥ 4 cm in diameter at baseline. Uterine fibroids are a leading indication for hysterectomy. However, when fibroids are found, there are few available data to help clinicians advise patients about disease progression. Women who were 35-49 years old were randomly selected from the membership of a large urban health plan; 80% of those determined to be eligible were enrolled and screened with ultrasound for fibroids ≥ 0.5 cm in diameter. African-American and white premenopausal participants who responded to at least one follow-up interview (N = 964, 85% of those eligible) constituted the study cohort. During follow-up (5822 person-years), participants self-reported any major uterine procedure (67% hysterectomies). Life-table analyses and Cox regression (with censoring for menopause) were used to estimate the risk of having a uterine procedure for women with no fibroids, small (women, importance of a clinical diagnosis of fibroids prior to study enrollment, and the impact of submucosal fibroids on risk were investigated. There was a greater loss to follow-up for African-Americans than whites (19 versus 11%). For those with follow-up data, 64% had fibroids at baseline, 33% of whom had had a prior diagnosis. Of those with fibroids, 27% had small fibroids (women during follow-up. The estimated risk of having a procedure in any given year of follow-up for those with fibroids compared with those without fibroids increased markedly with fibroid-size category (from 4-fold, confidence interval (CI) (1.4-11.1) for the small fibroids to 10-fold, CI (4.4-24.8) for the medium

  10. Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Woo Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

  11. Projected future suitable habitat and productivity of Douglas-fir in western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aaron R. Weiskittel; Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt

    2012-01-01

    Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco) is one of the most common and commercially important species in western North America. The species can occupy a range of habitats, is long-lived (up to 500 years), and highly productive. However, the future of Douglas-fir in western North America is highly uncertain due to the expected changes in climate conditions....

  12. Compendium on Financing of Higher Education: Final Report of the Financing the Students' Future Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Bethan; Charonis, George-Konstantinos; Haaristo, Hanna-Stella; Maurer, Moritz; Kaiser, Florian; Siegrist, Rahel; McVitty, Debbie; Gruber, Angelika; Heerens, Nik; Xhomaqi, Brikena; Nötzl, Tina; Semjonov, Meeli; Primožic, Rok

    2013-01-01

    Higher education plays a vital role in society and the quality, accessibility, and form of higher education is highly dependent on financing. Financing of higher education is conceived to be of central importance for the future creation and dissemination of knowledge and research. Therefore, the financing of higher education is a topic that has…

  13. The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J M; Fahey, David W; Daniel, John S; McFarland, Mack; Andersen, Stephen O

    2009-07-07

    The consumption and emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades in response to regulation of ozone depleting gases under the Montreal Protocol. The projected increases result primarily from sustained growth in demand for refrigeration, air-conditioning (AC) and insulating foam products in developing countries assuming no new regulation of HFC consumption or emissions. New HFC scenarios are presented based on current hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) consumption in leading applications, patterns of replacements of HCFCs by HFCs in developed countries, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Global HFC emissions significantly exceed previous estimates after 2025 with developing country emissions as much as 800% greater than in developed countries in 2050. Global HFC emissions in 2050 are equivalent to 9-19% (CO(2)-eq. basis) of projected global CO(2) emissions in business-as-usual scenarios and contribute a radiative forcing equivalent to that from 6-13 years of CO(2) emissions near 2050. This percentage increases to 28-45% compared with projected CO(2) emissions in a 450-ppm CO(2) stabilization scenario. In a hypothetical scenario based on a global cap followed by 4% annual reductions in consumption, HFC radiative forcing is shown to peak and begin to decline before 2050.

  14. The Better Beginnings, Better Futures Project: Findings from Grade 3 to Grade 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Ray DeV.; Bradshaw, Alison J.; Petrunka, Kelly; Nelson, Geoffrey; Herry, Yves; Craig, Wendy M.; Arnold, Robert; Parker, Kevin C. H.; Khan, Shahriar R.; Hoch, Jeffrey S.; Pancer, S. Mark; Loomis, Colleen; Belanger, Jean-Marc; Evers, Susan; Maltais, Claire; Thompson, Katherine; Rossiter, Melissa D.

    2010-01-01

    Although comprehensive and ecological approaches to early childhood prevention are commonly advocated, there are few examples of long-term follow-up of such programs. In this monograph, we investigate the medium- and long-term effects of an ecological, community-based prevention project for primary school children and families living in three…

  15. Tree Flora of Sabah and Sarawak project – progress and future activities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, H.S.; Nadiah, I.; Eryani, S.S.

    2009-01-01

    Tropical forests in Borneo (Brunei Darussalam, Kalimantan, Sabah and Sarawak) are considered as one of the twelve mega biodiversity centres in the world. However, until now, there is no up-to-date or complete documentation on the flora of the island. The Tree Flora of Sabah and Sarawak Project,

  16. 78 FR 26319 - Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill; Proposal of Future Early Restoration Projects and Environmental Reviews

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-06

    ... selected and implemented in accordance with the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA), the Framework Agreement... oil spill under the Oil Pollution Act 1990 (OPA; 33 U.S.C. 2701 et seq.). Pursuant to OPA, federal and... cost of this project is approximately $3.5 million. Sea Rim State Park Amenities (Jefferson County...

  17. Runoff Trends Analysis and Future Projections of Hydrological Patterns in Small Forested Catchments

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lamačová, Anna; Hruška, Jakub; Krám, Pavel; Stuchlik, E.; Farda, Aleš; Chuman, T.; Fottová, Daniela

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 4 (2014), s. 169-181 ISSN 1801-5395 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * flow pattern * headwater catchments * hydrological modelling Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.659, year: 2014

  18. Identification of observables for future grids – the framework developed in the ELECTRA project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visscher, Klaas; Marinelli, Mattia; Morch, Andrei Z.

    2015-01-01

    , and system input signal. A survey of existing and potential Control Triples was conducted among partners in the European ELECTRA project, resulting in a spreadsheet inventory. The main findings are presented and a few major observability needs for realising the so-called “vertical integration” of control...

  19. Standard Terminology for Phenotypic Variations: The Elements of Morphology Project, Its Current Progress, and Future Directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carey, John C.; Allanson, Judith E.; Hennekam, Raoul C. M.; Biesecker, Leslie G.

    2012-01-01

    In 2005, the authors of this article formed an international working group to develop standardized definitions and terms to describe the physical variations used in human phenotypic analyses. This project, which came to be known as the Elements of Morphology, resulted in six articles proposing

  20. Projecting trends in plant invasions in Europe under different scenarios of future land-use change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Chytrý, M.; Wild, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Jarošík, Vojtěch; Dendoncker, N.; Reginster, I.; Pino, J.; Maskell, L. C.; Vila, M.; Pergl, Jan; Kühn, I.; Spangenberg, J.H.; Settele, J.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 1 (2012), s. 75-87 ISSN 1466-822X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC06073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : plant invasions * land-use change * prediction Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 7.223, year: 2012

  1. Future projections of the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard with the regional climate model MAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, C.; Fettweis, X.; Erpicum, M.

    2015-01-01

    We have performed future projections of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR regional climate model forced by the MIROC5 global model, following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of the melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago and the ice caps. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo-melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a strong winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. At the end of the century (2070-2099 mean), SMB is projected to be negative over the entire Svalbard and, by 2085, all glaciated regions of Svalbard are predicted to undergo net ablation, meaning that, under the RCP8.5 scenario, all the glaciers and ice caps are predicted to start their irreversible retreat before the end of the 21st century.

  2. Long Baseline Observatory (LBO)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Long Baseline Observatory (LBO) comprises ten radio telescopes spanning 5,351 miles. It's the world's largest, sharpest, dedicated telescope array. With an eye...

  3. Mozambique Cell Phone Savings Project: Baseline Survey

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — Smallholders in rural Mozambique are typically characterized by low agricultural productivity, which is in part caused by very low levels of input usage. In the...

  4. Projected near-future CO2 levels increase activity and alter defensive behaviours in the tropical squid Idiosepius pygmaeus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blake L. Spady

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Carbon dioxide (CO2 levels projected to occur in the oceans by the end of this century cause a range of behavioural effects in fish, but whether other highly active marine organisms, such as cephalopods, are similarly affected is unknown. We tested the effects of projected future CO2 levels (626 and 956 µatm on the behaviour of male two-toned pygmy squid, Idiosepius pygmaeus. Exposure to elevated CO2 increased the number of active individuals by 19–25% and increased movement (number of line-crosses by nearly 3 times compared to squid at present-day CO2. Squid vigilance and defensive behaviours were also altered by elevated CO2 with >80% of individuals choosing jet escape responses over defensive arm postures in response to a visual startle stimulus, compared with 50% choosing jet escape responses at control CO2. In addition, more escape responses were chosen over threat behaviours in body pattern displays at elevated CO2 and individuals were more than twice as likely to use ink as a defence strategy at 956 µatm CO2, compared with controls. Increased activity could lead to adverse effects on energy budgets as well as increasing visibility to predators. A tendency to respond to a stimulus with escape behaviours could increase survival, but may also be energetically costly and could potentially lead to more chases by predators compared with individuals that use defensive postures. These results demonstrate that projected future ocean acidification affects the behaviours of a tropical squid species.

  5. NASA Global Hawk Project Update and Future Plans: A New Tool for Earth Science Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naftel, Chris

    2009-01-01

    Science objectives include: First demonstration of the Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS) for NASA and NOAA Earth science research and applications; Validation of instruments on-board the Aura satellite; Exploration of trace gases, aerosols, and dynamics of remote upper Troposphere/lower Stratosphere regions; Sample polar vortex fragments and atmospheric rivers; Risk reduction for future missions that will study hurricanes and atmospheric rivers.

  6. A study of current world telecommunications and a projection of the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karageorgis, Costas

    1992-09-01

    Telecommunications today are important factors in economic and social progress. The last decades of the 20th century and the early years of the 21st have been characterized as the Information Age. Telecommunications, the movement of information through distances, is absolutely critical to the economic and military survival of nations. This thesis is an attempt to predict the future of telecommunications, by studying and analyzing the past and present. First it examines the meaning of telecommunications today and some basics of information transmission. The current status of telecommunications is then presented, by examining the regional profiles as they are divided by the International Telecommunications Union. A number of statistical studies are given, which present a thorough picture of current world telecommunications. In an effort to predict future industry trends, the competition among the three largest telecommunications markets, U.S.A., Japan and the European Community, is also considered by looking at their present telecommunications industry, the efforts they make to improve their technology, and their plans for future investment. Finally, some major technological trends including BISDN, the use of fiber technology in the communications loop, and the use of solitons are examined. The new Metropolitan Area Network Protocol, FDDI-2 is also reviewed.

  7. Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dubrovský, Martin; Hayes, M.; Duce, P.; Trnka, Miroslav; Svoboda, M.; Zara, P.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 5 (2014), s. 1907-1919 ISSN 1436-3798 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.4.31.0056 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * mediteranean * global climate models * temperature * precipitation * drought * palmer drought severity index * weather generator Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.628, year: 2014

  8. [Telemedicine in Bolivia: RAFT-Altiplano project, experiences, future prospects, and recommendations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas, Alejandro; Ugalde, Miguel; Vargas, Reynaldo; Narvaez, Ramiro; Geissbuhler, Antoine

    2014-01-01

    The objective of the RAFT-Altiplano project (RAFT: Réseau en Afrique Francophone pour la Télémédecine, or African Francophone Telemedicine Network) is to evaluate the viability, potential, and risks of implementing and developing a telemedicine network in the context of a developing country-specifically, the Altiplano region of Bolivia-to improve access to medical care and continuing education in a rural area. The activities described in this report took place between 2011 and 2013. Digital telemedicine equipment was donated to the health centers and a Microsoft®-based platform capable of integration with other technologies (using standardized formats) was developed to manage documents and clinical content electronically. Health professionals were trained in teleconsultation and the teleconsultation workflow was designed. The tele-education system used is Dudal, which requires only a small bandwidth. After three years of implementation, an organized working structure of teleconsultation and tele-education tools, adapted to the Latin American context, is now in place and connections have been established with hospitals, institutions, and health centers. The project has improved access to specialized medical care in remote health centers and third-level hospitals in urban areas, and it has become the foundation for development of the national project "TeleSalud for Bolivia" promoted by the Ministry of Health, which involves use of the new Bolivian satellite, Túpac Katari. It is viable to develop and set up telemedicine tools to serve the population in remote regions of Bolivia when they are made available to government and municipal health institutions and communication between them and the health centers takes place in a coordinated manner. The sharing of experiences, challenges, and risks encountered is very useful in designing and implementing the telemedicine project "TeleSalud for Bolivia" on a national scale.

  9. The Study of Nursing Care project: back to the future for contemporary nursing research?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kylie M; Crookes, Patrick A

    2012-11-01

      To discuss the Study of Nursing Care project, an initiative from the late 1970s in the UK. The article explores the impact of the Study of Nursing Care on nursing research, and considers to what extent it presents a useful model for contemporary nursing research.   It is acknowledged internationally that the nursing academic workforce is ageing and dwindling. Many possible solutions are being debated with all agreeing that the next generation of evidence based nurse leaders is urgently required.   In this article, the authors survey existing workforce schemes, describe the Study of Nursing Care series, published in the 1970s, and draw on interviews and correspondence conducted in 2009 with four of the original Study of Nursing Care research assistants.   The Study of Nursing Care project poses a potential response to academic workforce issues. This article discusses the evolution of the project, its methods and operation and considers its possible implications for contemporary practice. Implications for nursing.  The Study of Nursing Care model demonstrates the clear benefits of fully committed funding, a programmatic approach towards research development, and the importance of selecting the right kind of people for the work, in a national scheme.   The authors argue that although the clinical outcomes it set out to achieve remain elusive, the project produced a cohort of nurse researchers who went on to give important leadership in nursing, including in nursing academia/research. A contemporary version of the Study of Nursing Care has important potential to generate the next generation of nurse researchers, and leaders, into the twenty-first century. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. Virtual reality in decommissioning projects: experiences, lessons learned and future plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rindahl, G.; Mark, N.K.F.; Meyer, G.

    2006-01-01

    The work on Virtual Reality (VR) tools for decommissioning planning, dose estimation and work management started at the Norwegian Institute for Energy Technology (IFE) in 1999 in the VR dose project with Japan Nuclear Cycle development institute (JNC), now JAEA. The main aim of this effort has been to help minimize workers' radiation exposure, as well as help to achieve more efficient use of human resources. VR dose is now used in the decommissioning of one of JNC's reactors, the Fugen Nuclear Power Station. This VR decommissioning project has later resulted in a series of projects and applications. In addition to decommissioning, IFE also put great focus on two other branches of VR tools, namely tools for knowledge management, training and education in operating facilities and tools for control room design. During the last years, this work, beginning at different ends, has been converging more and more towards VR technology for use through out the life cycle of a facility. A VR training simulator for a refuelling machine of the Leningrad NPP (LNPP) developed in cooperation with the Russian Research Centre Kurchatov Institute (RRC KI) is now planned to be used in connection with the decommissioning of the three intact reactors at Chernobyl in Ukraine. In this paper we describe experiences from use of VR in decommissioning processes, as well as results from bringing the VR technology initially developed for planned or productive facilities into the decommissioning toolbox. (author)

  11. Support of future lighthouse projects and beyond. Managing the transition to hydrogen for transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ros, M.E.; Jeeninga, H.; Godfroij, P.

    2007-06-01

    Large scale demonstration projects as the 'Lighthouse projects' are an important step towards commercialisation. However, costs for disruptive technologies such as hydrogen, are high in the first phase of market introduction. Therefore, policy support is needed to facilitate the introduction of hydrogen. But, how can the government support and stimulate (early) market introduction and use of hydrogen in the transportation sector? What kind of policy instruments are needed in what phase of the introduction trajectory? And what are the current instruments in the EU and US? Can these affect the introduction of hydrogen in transport? Generally, the hydrogen chain can be stimulated by providing an investment subsidy, production subsidy, tax exemptions and a (production or sales) obligation. Technology specific configurations of these support mechanisms for the diverse technologies in the hydrogen chain have to be taken into account. Besides that the support measures have to act upon each other for every technology development stage. A comparison of the EU and US policies shows differences in the approach of bringing the hydrogen vehicles to the market. The amount of support differs. The US funds RD and D 50% and stimulates the market by obligating sales (ZEV obligation) and procurement, while the EU funds R and D 50%, demonstration 35% and is now looking into large scale demonstration projects, after which the commercial market introduction of hydrogen vehicles is envisaged

  12. Support of future lighthouse projects and beyond. Managing the transition to hydrogen for transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ros, M.E.; Jeeninga, H.; Godfroij, P. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)

    2007-06-15

    Large scale demonstration projects as the 'Lighthouse projects' are an important step towards commercialisation. However, costs for disruptive technologies such as hydrogen, are high in the first phase of market introduction. Therefore, policy support is needed to facilitate the introduction of hydrogen. But, how can the government support and stimulate (early) market introduction and use of hydrogen in the transportation sector? What kind of policy instruments are needed in what phase of the introduction trajectory? And what are the current instruments in the EU and US? Can these affect the introduction of hydrogen in transport? Generally, the hydrogen chain can be stimulated by providing an investment subsidy, production subsidy, tax exemptions and a (production or sales) obligation. Technology specific configurations of these support mechanisms for the diverse technologies in the hydrogen chain have to be taken into account. Besides that the support measures have to act upon each other for every technology development stage. A comparison of the EU and US policies shows differences in the approach of bringing the hydrogen vehicles to the market. The amount of support differs. The US funds RD and D 50% and stimulates the market by obligating sales (ZEV obligation) and procurement, while the EU funds R and D 50%, demonstration 35% and is now looking into large scale demonstration projects, after which the commercial market introduction of hydrogen vehicles is envisaged.

  13. REDD+ projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo: impacts on future emissions, income and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosnier, Aline; Bocqueho, Geraldine; Mant, Rebecca; Obersteiner, Michael; Havlik, Petr; Kapos, Val; Fritz, Steffen; Botrill, Leo

    2014-05-01

    The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) encompasses a large rainforest area which has been rather preserved up to now. However, pressure on the forests is increasing with high population growth, transition toward political stability and the abundance of minerals in the country. REDD+ is a developing mechanism under the UNFCCC that aims to support developing countries that want to make efforts to reduce their emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. The REDD+ strategy in DRC combines an independent national fund and independent REDD+ projects at the local level that are at the initial stage of implementation. The objective of this paper is to assess i) emissions reduction due to the implementation of the REDD+ pilot projects taking into account potential leakage and ii) potential co-benefits of REDD+ pilot projects in terms of biodiversity and rural income by 2030. We use the land use economic model CongoBIOM adapted from GLOBIOM which represents land-based activities and land use changes at a 50x50km resolution level. It includes domestic and international demand for agricultural products, fuel wood and minerals which are the main deforestation drivers in the Congo Basin region. Finally, we run a sensitivity analysis on emissions from land use change according to three different above and below ground living biomass estimates: downscaled FAO, NASA and WHRC.

  14. Project FIT: Rationale, design and baseline characteristics of a school- and community-based intervention to address physical activity and healthy eating among low-income elementary school children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oh Hyun J

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper describes Project FIT, a collaboration between the public school system, local health systems, physicians, neighborhood associations, businesses, faith-based leaders, community agencies and university researchers to develop a multi-faceted approach to promote physical activity and healthy eating toward the general goal of preventing and reducing childhood obesity among children in Grand Rapids, MI, USA. Methods/design There are four overall components to Project FIT: school, community, social marketing, and school staff wellness - all that focus on: 1 increasing access to safe and affordable physical activity and nutrition education opportunities in the schools and surrounding neighborhoods; 2 improving the affordability and availability of nutritious food in the neighborhoods surrounding the schools; 3 improving the knowledge, self-efficacy, attitudes and behaviors regarding nutrition and physical activity among school staff, parents and students; 4 impacting the 'culture' of the schools and neighborhoods to incorporate healthful values; and 5 encouraging dialogue among all community partners to leverage existing programs and introduce new ones. Discussion At baseline, there was generally low physical activity (70% do not meet recommendation of 60 minutes per day, excessive screen time (75% do not meet recommendation of rd-5th grade children (n = 403. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01385046

  15. Project FIT: rationale, design and baseline characteristics of a school- and community-based intervention to address physical activity and healthy eating among low-income elementary school children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenmann, Joey C; Alaimo, Katherine; Pfeiffer, Karin; Paek, Hye-Jin; Carlson, Joseph J; Hayes, Heather; Thompson, Tracy; Kelleher, Deanne; Oh, Hyun J; Orth, Julie; Randall, Sue; Mayfield, Kellie; Holmes, Denise

    2011-07-29

    This paper describes Project FIT, a collaboration between the public school system, local health systems, physicians, neighborhood associations, businesses, faith-based leaders, community agencies and university researchers to develop a multi-faceted approach to promote physical activity and healthy eating toward the general goal of preventing and reducing childhood obesity among children in Grand Rapids, MI, USA. There are four overall components to Project FIT: school, community, social marketing, and school staff wellness - all that focus on: 1) increasing access to safe and affordable physical activity and nutrition education opportunities in the schools and surrounding neighborhoods; 2) improving the affordability and availability of nutritious food in the neighborhoods surrounding the schools; 3) improving the knowledge, self-efficacy, attitudes and behaviors regarding nutrition and physical activity among school staff, parents and students; 4) impacting the 'culture' of the schools and neighborhoods to incorporate healthful values; and 5) encouraging dialogue among all community partners to leverage existing programs and introduce new ones. At baseline, there was generally low physical activity (70% do not meet recommendation of 60 minutes per day), excessive screen time (75% do not meet recommendation of < 2 hours per day), and low intake of vegetables and whole grains and high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages, French fries and chips and desserts as well as a high prevalence of overweight and obesity (48.5% including 6% with severe obesity) among low income, primarily Hispanic and African American 3rd-5th grade children (n = 403). ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01385046.

  16. The SOLUTIONS project: challenges and responses for present and future emerging pollutants in land and water resources management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brack, Werner; Altenburger, Rolf; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Krauss, Martin; López Herráez, David; van Gils, Jos; Slobodnik, Jaroslav; Munthe, John; Gawlik, Bernd Manfred; van Wezel, Annemarie; Schriks, Merijn; Hollender, Juliane; Tollefsen, Knut Erik; Mekenyan, Ovanes; Dimitrov, Saby; Bunke, Dirk; Cousins, Ian; Posthuma, Leo; van den Brink, Paul J; López de Alda, Miren; Barceló, Damià; Faust, Michael; Kortenkamp, Andreas; Scrimshaw, Mark; Ignatova, Svetlana; Engelen, Guy; Massmann, Gudrun; Lemkine, Gregory; Teodorovic, Ivana; Walz, Karl-Heinz; Dulio, Valeria; Jonker, Michiel T O; Jäger, Felix; Chipman, Kevin; Falciani, Francesco; Liska, Igor; Rooke, David; Zhang, Xiaowei; Hollert, Henner; Vrana, Branislav; Hilscherova, Klara; Kramer, Kees; Neumann, Steffen; Hammerbacher, Ruth; Backhaus, Thomas; Mack, Juliane; Segner, Helmut; Escher, Beate; de Aragão Umbuzeiro, Gisela

    2015-01-15

    SOLUTIONS (2013 to 2018) is a European Union Seventh Framework Programme Project (EU-FP7). The project aims to deliver a conceptual framework to support the evidence-based development of environmental policies with regard to water quality. SOLUTIONS will develop the tools for the identification, prioritisation and assessment of those water contaminants that may pose a risk to ecosystems and human health. To this end, a new generation of chemical and effect-based monitoring tools is developed and integrated with a full set of exposure, effect and risk assessment models. SOLUTIONS attempts to address legacy, present and future contamination by integrating monitoring and modelling based approaches with scenarios on future developments in society, economy and technology and thus in contamination. The project follows a solutions-oriented approach by addressing major problems of water and chemicals management and by assessing abatement options. SOLUTIONS takes advantage of the access to the infrastructure necessary to investigate the large basins of the Danube and Rhine as well as relevant Mediterranean basins as case studies, and puts major efforts on stakeholder dialogue and support. Particularly, the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) Common Implementation Strategy (CIS) working groups, International River Commissions, and water works associations are directly supported with consistent guidance for the early detection, identification, prioritisation, and abatement of chemicals in the water cycle. SOLUTIONS will give a specific emphasis on concepts and tools for the impact and risk assessment of complex mixtures of emerging pollutants, their metabolites and transformation products. Analytical and effect-based screening tools will be applied together with ecological assessment tools for the identification of toxicants and their impacts. The SOLUTIONS approach is expected to provide transparent and evidence-based candidates or River Basin Specific Pollutants in the case

  17. Cryogenics Testbed Laboratory Flange Baseline Configuration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna, Marie Lei Ysabel D.

    2013-01-01

    As an intern at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), I was involved in research for the Fluids and Propulsion Division of the NASA Engineering (NE) Directorate. I was immersed in the Integrated Ground Operations Demonstration Units (IGODU) project for the majority of my time at KSC, primarily with the Ground Operations Demonstration Unit Liquid Oxygen (GODU L02) branch of IGODU. This project was established to develop advancements in cryogenic systems as a part of KSC's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program. The vision of AES is to develop new approaches for human exploration, and operations in and beyond low Earth orbit. Advanced cryogenic systems are crucial to minimize the consumable losses of cryogenic propellants, develop higher performance launch vehicles, and decrease operations cost for future launch programs. During my internship, I conducted a flange torque tracking study that established a baseline configuration for the flanges in the Simulated Propellant Loading System (SPLS) at the KSC Cryogenics Test Laboratory (CTL) - the testing environment for GODU L02.

  18. Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gisselle Yang Xie

    Full Text Available Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd, a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary, including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific and also separately per region (region-specific. One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas

  19. Integrated Baseline Review (IBR) Handbook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Jon F.; Terrell, Stefanie M.

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this handbook is intended to be a how-to guide to prepare for, conduct, and close-out an Integrated Baseline Review (IBR). It discusses the steps that should be considered, describes roles and responsibilities, tips for tailoring the IBR based on risk, cost, and need for management insight, and provides lessons learned from past IBRs. Appendices contain example documentation typically used in connection with an IBR. Note that these appendices are examples only, and should be tailored to meet the needs of individual projects and contracts.

  20. Safety criteria for the future LMFBR's in France and main safety issues for the rapide 1500 project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Justin, F.; Natta, M.; Orzoni, G.

    1985-04-01

    The main safety criteria for future LMFBR in France and the related issues for the RAPIDE 1500 project are presented and discussed. The evolutions with respect to SUPERPHENIX options and requirements are emphasized, in particular for the concerns of the prevention of core melt accidents, fuel damage limits and related required performances of the protection system, since one main option is not to consider whole core melt accidents in the containment design. One shall also point out the advantages of some mitigating features which were nevertheless added in the containment design, although without any explicit consideration for core melt accidents

  1. Large-scale water projects in the developing world: Revisiting the past and looking to the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivakumar, Bellie; Chen, Ji

    2014-05-01

    During the past half a century or so, the developing world has been witnessing a significant increase in freshwater demands due to a combination of factors, including population growth, increased food demand, improved living standards, and water quality degradation. Since there exists significant variability in rainfall and river flow in both space and time, large-scale storage and distribution of water has become a key means to meet these increasing demands. In this regard, large dams and water transfer schemes (including river-linking schemes and virtual water trades) have been playing a key role. While the benefits of such large-scale projects in supplying water for domestic, irrigation, industrial, hydropower, recreational, and other uses both in the countries of their development and in other countries are undeniable, concerns on their negative impacts, such as high initial costs and damages to our ecosystems (e.g. river environment and species) and socio-economic fabric (e.g. relocation and socio-economic changes of affected people) have also been increasing in recent years. These have led to serious debates on the role of large-scale water projects in the developing world and on their future, but the often one-sided nature of such debates have inevitably failed to yield fruitful outcomes thus far. The present study aims to offer a far more balanced perspective on this issue. First, it recognizes and emphasizes the need for still additional large-scale water structures in the developing world in the future, due to the continuing increase in water demands, inefficiency in water use (especially in the agricultural sector), and absence of equivalent and reliable alternatives. Next, it reviews a few important success and failure stories of large-scale water projects in the developing world (and in the developed world), in an effort to arrive at a balanced view on the future role of such projects. Then, it discusses some major challenges in future water planning

  2. Pediatric Orthopaedic Workforce in 2014: Current Workforce and Projections for the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawyer, Jeffrey R; Jones, Kerwyn C; Copley, Lawson A; Chambers, Stephanie

    2017-01-01

    The changing nature of the United States (US) health care system has prompted debate concerning the physician supply. The basic questions are: do we have an adequate number of surgeons to meet current demands and are we training the correct number of surgeons to meet future demands? The purpose of this analysis was to characterize the current pediatric orthopaedic workforce in terms of supply and demand, both present and future. Databases were searched (POSNA, SF Match, KID, MGMA) to determine the current pediatric orthopaedic workforce and workforce distribution, as well as pediatric orthopaedic demand. The number of active Pediatric Orthopaedic Society of North America (POSNA) members increased over the past 20 years, from 410 in 1993 to 653 in 2014 (155% increase); however, the density of POSNA members is not equally distributed, but correlates to population density. The number of estimated pediatric discharges, orthopaedic and nonorthopaedic, has remained relatively stable from 6,348,537 in 1997 to 5,850,184 in 2012. Between 2003 and 2013, the number of pediatric orthopaedic fellows graduating from Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education and non-Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education programs increased from 39 to 50 (29%), with a peak of 67 fellows (71%) in 2009. Although predicting the exact need for pediatric orthopaedic surgeons (POS) is impossible because of the complex interplay among macroeconomic, governmental, insurance, and local factors, some trends were identified: the supply of POS has increased, which may offset the expected numbers of experienced surgeons who will be leaving the workforce in the next 10 to 15 years; macroeconomic factors influencing demand for physician services, driven by gross domestic product and population growth, are expected to be stable in the near future; expansion of the scope of practice for POS is expected to continue; and further similar assessments are warranted. Level II-economic and

  3. Possible teleconnections between East and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in projected future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Sumin; Singh, Gyan Prakash; Oh, Jai-Ho; Lee, Kyoung-Min

    2018-01-01

    The present paper examined the teleconnections between two huge Asian summer monsoon components (South and East Asia) during three time slices in future: near-(2010-2039), mid-(2040-2069) and far-(2070-2100) futures under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For this purpose, a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model is used and integrated at 40 km horizontal resolution. To get more insight into the relationships between the two Asian monsoon components, we have studied the spatial displaying correlation coefficients (CCs) pattern of precipitation over the entire Asian monsoon region with that of South Asia and three regions of East Asia (North China, Korea-Japan and Southern China) separately during the same three time slices. The possible factors responsible for these teleconnections are explored by using mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and wind fields at 850 hPa. The CC pattern of precipitation over South Asia shows an in-phase relationship with North China and an out-of-phase relationship with Korea-Japan, while precipitation variations over Korea-Japan and Southern China exhibit an out-of-phase relationship with South Asia. The CCs analysis between the two Asian blocks during different time slices shows the strongest CCs during the near and far future with the RCP8.5 scenario. The CC pattern of precipitation over Korea-Japan and Southern China with the wind (at 850 hPa) and MSLP fields indicate that the major parts of the moisture over Korea-Japan gets transported from the west Pacific along the western limb of NPSH, while the moisture over Southern China comes from the Bay of Bengal and South China Seas for good monsoon activity.

  4. Technology Transfer Programme In Reactor Digital Instrumentation And Control System (REDICS) Project: Knowledge, Experiences And Future Expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nurfarhana Ayuni Joha; Mohamad Puad Abu; Izhar Abu Hussin; Ridzuan Abdul Mutalib; Zareen Khan Abdul Jalil Khan; Mohd Khairulezwan Abdul Manan; Mohd Sabri Minhat; Mohd Idris Taib

    2013-01-01

    The PUSPATI TRIGA MARK II research reactor in Malaysia was commissioned in 1982. After 31 years of operation, Nuclear Malaysia is taking an approach for a better research and development in nuclear radiations as well as the technical services that provided. Reactor TRIGA PUSPATI (RTP) is currently upgrading its control console from analogue to digital system. The Reactor Digital Instrumentation and Control System (ReDICS) project is done on cooperation with Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), Korea including the technical part from the design stage until commissioning as well as the Technology Transfer Program (TTP). TTP in this ReDICS project is a part of Human Resource and System Development Program. It was carried out from the design stage until the commissioning of the system. It covers all subjects related to the design on the digital system and the requirements for the operation of RTP. The objective of this paper is to share the knowledge and experiences gained through this ReDICS project. This paper will also discuss the future expectations from this ReDICS project for Nuclear Malaysia and its personnel, as well as to the country. (author)

  5. Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

    2018-01-01

    This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to

  6. The Future of Home Health project: developing the framework for health care at home.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Teresa; Schiller, Jennifer

    2015-02-01

    In addition to providing high-quality care to vulnerable patient populations, home healthcare offers the least costly option for patients and the healthcare system, particularly in postacute care. As the baby boom generation ages, policymakers are expressing concerns about rising costs, variation in home healthcare service use, and program integrity. The Alliance for Home Health Quality and Innovation seeks to develop a research-based strategic framework for the future of home healthcare for older Americans and those with disabilities. This article describes the initiative and invites readers to provide comments and suggestions.

  7. [Population projection and its principal components: the future model of population in the province of Alicante].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman Mora, E

    1994-01-01

    "In this article we analyze the different demographic patterns defining the population in the province of Alicante [Spain]. The behaviour of the demographic factors in the past and in the present is studied here, and a series of models are put into practice in order to foresee the future pattern of population.... The result shows either the effect of a possible ageing in an already aged population, as is the case of the province of Alicante, or what the job market would have to endure if the above mentioned ageing took place, increased by the possibility of an inmigration of an older population." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) excerpt

  8. Projection of future runoff change using climate elasticity method derived from Budyko framework in major basins across China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Wanqiu; Wang, Weiguang; Zou, Shan; Deng, Chao

    2018-03-01

    This study established a climate elasticity method based on Budyko hypothesis and enhanced it by selecting the most effective Budyko-type formula to strengthen the runoff change prediction reliability. The spatiotemporal variations in hydrologic variables (i.e., runoff, precipitation and potential evaporation) during historical period were revealed first and the climate elasticities of runoff were investigated. The proposed climate elasticity method was also applied to project the spatiotemporal variations in future runoff and its key influencing factors in 35 watersheds across China. Wherein, the future climate series were retrieved by consulting the historical series, informed by four global climate models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathways from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Wang-Tang equation was selected as the optimal Budyko-type equation for its best ability in reproducing the runoff change (with a coefficient of determination and mean absolute error of 0.998 and 1.36 mm, respectively). Observed runoff presents significant decreasing trends in the northern and increasing trends in the southern regions of China, and generally its change is identified to be more sensitive to climatic variables in Hai River Basin and lower Yellow River Basin. Compared to the runoff during the reference period, positive change rates in the north and negative change rates in the south of China in the mid-21st century can be practically generalized from the majority of GCMs projections. This maybe resulted from the increasing precipitation, especially in parts of northern basins. Meanwhile, GCMs project a consistently upward trend in potential evaporation although significant decreasing trends occur in the majority of catchments for the historical period. The results indicate that climate change will possibly bring some changes to the water resources over China in the mid-21st century and some countermeasures of water resources planning

  9. Downscaling future climate projections to the watershed scale: A north San Francisco Bay estuary case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micheli, Elisabeth; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; Weiss, Stuart; Kennedy, Morgan

    2012-01-01

    We modeled the hydrology of basins draining into the northern portion of the San Francisco Bay Estuary (North San Pablo Bay) using a regional water balance model (Basin Characterization Model; BCM) to estimate potential effects of climate change at the watershed scale. The BCM calculates water balance components, including runoff, recharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and stream flow, based on climate, topography, soils and underlying geology, and the solar-driven energy balance. We downscaled historical and projected precipitation and air temperature values derived from weather stations and global General Circulation Models (GCMs) to a spatial scale of 270 m. We then used the BCM to estimate hydrologic response to climate change for four scenarios spanning this century (2000–2100). Historical climate patterns show that Marin’s coastal regions are typically on the order of 2 °C cooler and receive five percent more precipitation compared to the inland valleys of Sonoma and Napa because of marine influences and local topography. By the last 30 years of this century, North Bay scenarios project average minimum temperatures to increase by 1.0 °C to 3.1 °C and average maximum temperatures to increase by 2.1 °C to 3.4 °C (in comparison to conditions experienced over the last 30 years, 1981–2010). Precipitation projections for the 21st century vary between GCMs (ranging from 2 to 15% wetter than the 20th-century average). Temperature forcing increases the variability of modeled runoff, recharge, and stream discharge, and shifts hydrologic cycle timing. For both high- and low-rainfall scenarios, by the close of this century warming is projected to amplify late-season climatic water deficit (a measure of drought stress on soils) by 8% to 21%. Hydrologic variability within a single river basin demonstrated at the scale of subwatersheds may prove an important consideration for water managers in the face of climate change. Our results suggest that in arid

  10. SOAP based web services and their future role in VO projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topf, F.; Jacquey, C.; Génot, V.; Cecconi, B.; André, N.; Zhang, T. L.; Kallio, E.; Lammer, H.; Facsko, G.; Stöckler, R.; Khodachenko, M.

    2011-10-01

    Modern state-of-the-art web services are from crucial importance for the interoperability of different VO tools existing in the planetary community. SOAP based web services assure the interconnectability between different data sources and tools by providing a common protocol for communication. This paper will point out a best practice approach with the Automated Multi-Dataset Analysis Tool (AMDA) developed by CDPP, Toulouse and the provision of VEX/MAG data from a remote database located at IWF, Graz. Furthermore a new FP7 project IMPEx will be introduced with a potential usage example of AMDA web services in conjunction with simulation models.

  11. Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dubrovský, Martin; Hayes, M.; Duce, P.; Trnka, M.; Svoboda, M.; Zara, P.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 5 (2014), s. 1907-1919 ISSN 1436-3798 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300420806; GA MŠk LD12029 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : mediterranean * climate change * global climate models * temperature * precipitation * drought * Palmer drought severity index * weather generator Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.628, year: 2014 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-013-0562-z/fulltext.html

  12. The future of coastal upwelling in the Humboldt current from model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyarzún, Damián; Brierley, Chris M.

    2018-03-01

    The Humboldt coastal upwelling system in the eastern South Pacific ocean is one of the most productive marine ecosystems in the world. A weakening of the upwelling activity could lead to severe ecological impacts. As coastal upwelling in eastern boundary systems is mainly driven by wind stress, most studies so far have analysed wind patterns change through the 20th and 21st Centuries in order to understand and project the phenomenon under specific forcing scenarios. Mixed results have been reported, and analyses from General Circulation Models have suggested even contradictory trends of wind stress for the Humboldt system. In this study, we analyse the ocean upwelling directly in 13 models contributing to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in both the historical simulations and an extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5). The upwelling is represented by the upward ocean mass flux, a newly-included variable that represents the vertical water transport. Additionally, wind stress, ocean stratification, Ekman layer depth and thermocline depth were also analysed to explore their interactions with coastal upwelling throughout the period studied. The seasonal cycle of coastal upwelling differs between the Northern and Southern Humboldt areas. At lower latitudes, the upwelling season spans most of the autumn, winter and spring. However, in the Southern Humboldt area the upwelling season takes place in spring and the summertime with downwelling activity in winter. This persists throughout the Historical and RCP8.5 simulations. For both the Northern and Southern Humboldt areas an increasing wind stress is projected. However, different trends of upwelling intensity are observed away from the sea surface. Whereas wind stress will continue controlling the decadal variability of coastal upwelling on the whole ocean column analysed (surface to 300 m depth), an increasing disconnect with upwelling intensity is projected below 100 m depth throughout the 21

  13. Tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and extreme sea-level projections along the east coast of India in a future climate scenario

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; RameshKumar, M.R.; Sindhu, B.

    (2071– 2100), A2. The analysis showed an increase in the frequency of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal during the late monsoon (August and September) in the A2 scenario compared to the baseline scenario. Extreme sea-level projections along the east coast...

  14. Current status and future projections of LNG demand and supplies: A global prospective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Satish; Kwon, Hyouk-Tae; Choi, Kwang-Ho; Hyun Cho, Jae; Lim, Wonsub; Moon, Il

    2011-01-01

    An unceasing growth of gas consumption in domestic households, industry, and power plants has gradually turned natural gas into a major source of energy. Main drivers in this development are the technical and economic advantages of natural gas. It is a clean, versatile, and easily controllable fuel. On this basis, natural gas is often considered the form of energy that will be the 'bridging fuel' to a sustainable energy system, sometime after 2050. Unlike other main sources of energy, such as oil and coal, gas is not traded on an actual world market. This paper provides an overview on demand and supplies of natural gas (LNG) in the past as a function of gas prices, gas technology (gas sweetening, liquefaction, shipping and re-gasification), and gas market and how they have changed recently. It also discusses the likely developments in global LNG demand for the period to the year 2030. - Highlights: → This study provides an overview on demand and supplies of LNG in the past and future. → Outlook for LNG demand in Asia pacific region is very robust. → In past decade the shale gas production in USA has increased fivefold. → The future of European gas supply depends largely on the geopolitical environments. → Within the gas sector LNG is playing an ever increasing role in gas transportation.

  15. Modelling the impacts of projected future climate change on water resources in north-west England

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the last two decades, the frequency of water resource drought in the UK, coupled with the more recent pan-European drought of 2003, has increased concern over changes in climate. Using the UKCIP02 Medium-High (SRES A2 scenario for 2070–2100, this study investigates the impact of climate change on the operation of the Integrated Resource Zone (IRZ, a complex conjunctive-use water supply system in north-western England. The results indicate that the contribution of individual sources to yield may change substantially but that overall yield is reduced by only 18%. Notwithstanding this significant effect on water supply, the flexibility of the system enables it to meet modelled demand for much of the time under the future climate scenario, even without a change in system management, but at significant expense for pumping additional abstraction from lake and borehole sources. This research provides a basis for the future planning and management of the complex water resource system in the north-west of England.

  16. Staffing requirements for future small and medium reactors (SMRs) based on operating experience and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    At the time of this study there were about 160 small and medium sized nuclear power reactors (referred to as SMRs) in operation worldwide, and about 25 more under construction. Operation and maintenance costs for operating SMRs represent a substantial portion of the cost of electricity produced. Of these costs, the direct and indirect cost of staff represents the major cost component. In recent years, particularly since 1990, there has been increased interest in SMRs by many developing countries wishing to take advantage of nuclear power and several small and medium reactor designs are in various stages of development. To enhance the economic competitive position of SMRs relative to alternative methods of electricity generation, it is essential to ensure that new SMRs can be operated reliably and efficiently using the optimum number of staff. This publication reviews the lessons learned from the reactor operation, and the insights gained through the design of new SMRs, with a view to optimizing staffing in order to improve overall plant economics without compromising safety.This publication is intended to evaluate the estimated staffing size of various SMRs, the staff qualification and training required for the operation of future SMRs. and the key issues which impact the staffing requirements that should be considered in the development and deployment of future SMRs

  17. Microbial and biogeochemical responses to projected future nitrate enrichment in the California upwelling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine Rose Marie Mackey

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Coastal California is a dynamic upwelling region where nitrogen (N and iron (Fe can both limit productivity and influence biogeochemistry over different spatial and temporal scales. With global change, the flux of nitrate from upwelling is expected to increase over the next century, potentially driving additional oceanic regions toward Fe limitation. In this study we explored the effect of changes in Fe/N ratio on native phytoplankton from five currently Fe-replete sites near the major California upwelling centers at Bodega Bay and Monterey Bay using nutrient addition incubation experiments. Despite the high nitrate levels (13-30 M in the upwelled water, phytoplankton at three of the five sites showed increased growth when 10 M nitrate was added. None of the sites showed enhanced growth following addition of 10 nM Fe. Nitrate additions favored slow sinking single-celled diatoms over faster sinking chain-forming diatoms, suggesting that future increases in nitrate flux could affect carbon and silicate export and alter grazer populations. In particular, solitary cells of Cylindrotheca were more abundant than the toxin-producing genus Pseudonitzschia following nitrate addition. These responses suggest the biogeochemistry of coastal California could change in response to future increases in nitrate, and multiple stressors like ocean acidification and hypoxia may further result in ecosystem shifts.

  18. Streamflow timing of mountain rivers in Spain: Recent changes and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morán-Tejeda, Enrique; Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge; López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio; Rahman, Kazi; Beniston, Martin

    2014-09-01

    Changes in streamflow timing are studied in 27 mountain rivers in Spain, in the context of climate warming. The studied rivers are characterized by a highflows period in spring due to snowmelt, although differences in the role of snow and consequently in the timing of flows are observed amongst cases. We calculated for every year of the studied period (1976-2008) various hydrological indices that enable locating the timing of spring flows within the annual hydrologic regime, including the day of 75% of mass, and the day of spring maximum. The evolution of these indices was compared with that of seasonal precipitation and temperature, and trends in time were calculated. Results show a general negative trend in the studied indices which indicates that spring peaks due to snowmelt are shifting earlier within the hydrological year. Spring temperatures, which show a significant increasing trend, are the main co-variable responsible for the observed changes in the streamflow timing. In a second set of analyses we performed hydrological simulations with the SWAT model, in order to estimate changes in streamflow timing under projected warming temperatures. Projections show further shifting of spring peak flows along with a more pronounced low water level period in the summer. The simulations also allowed quantifying the role of snowfall-snowmelt on the observed changes in streamflow.

  19. Financing of energy-efficient productive industrial projects. Situation and first ideas for the future. Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Billard, Yannael; Julien, Emmanuel; Blaisonneau, Laurent; Streiff, Frederic; Padilla, Sylvie; Benazzi, Eric; Domergue, Bruno; Fraysse, Sebastien; Gaussens, Jean-Pierre; Packeu, Paris; Bodino, Didier; Randimbivololona, Prisca; Verbbrughe, Gregory; Bissonnier, Alain; Dantec, Caroline

    2016-11-01

    Based on in-depth interviews with decision makers and experts belonging to energy consuming industrial groups, or involved in technological offer or in financing, this study addressed the issue of energy efficiency in the industrial sector, and of its financing. Interviewed persons represented 11 large companies, 5 medium-sized companies, and 14 industrial sectors, and 3 main professional profiles (from technical to financial). The authors thus explored current financing models implemented to finance energy efficiency, by analysing existing decision-making processes, brakes on energy efficiency in industry, levers favourable to energy efficiency in industry, operational and functional organisations addressing issues related to energy efficiency, the risk management policy implemented for the assessment and follow-up of investments in energy efficiency, and existing and envisaged financial packages to make these investments possible. As far as financing is concerned, the authors analyse present practices, difficulties faced, good and repeatable practices, and discuss some lines of thought to mobilise actors in order to structure and promote energy efficiency in industrial projects, to reduce the risk for an easier financing of such projects, to structure financing tools, to promote incentive taxes and aids

  20. The Future of Drought in the Southeastern U.S.: Projections from downscaled CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keellings, D.; Engstrom, J.

    2017-12-01

    The Southeastern U.S. has been repeatedly impacted by severe droughts that have affected the environment and economy of the region. In this study the ability of 32 downscaled CMIP5 models, bias corrected using localized constructed analogs (LOCA), to simulate historical observations of dry spells from 1950-2005 are assessed using Perkins skill scores and significance tests. The models generally simulate the distribution of dry days well but there are significant differences between the ability of the best and worst performing models, particularly when it comes to the upper tail of the distribution. The best and worst performing models are then projected through 2099, using RCP 4.5 and 8.5, and estimates of 20 year return periods are compared. Only the higher skill models provide a good estimate of extreme dry spell lengths with simulations of 20 year return values within ± 5 days of observed values across the region. Projected return values differ by model grouping, but all models exhibit significant increases.

  1. Projected Future Distribution of Tsuga canadensis across Alternative Climate Scenarios in Maine, U.S

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathleen Dunckel

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is having an impact on forest ecosystems around the world and is expected to alter the suitable habitat of individual tree species. Forest managers require resources about potential impacts of climate change at the regional scale to aid in climate mitigation efforts. By understanding the geographic distribution of changes in suitable habitat, migration corridors can be identified for conservation and active management. With the increased availability of climate projection data, ancillary Geographic Information Systems data, and field observations, modeling efforts at the regional scale are now possible. Here, we modeled and mapped the continuous distribution of Tsuga canadensis throughout the state of Maine at the regional scale(30 m with high precision (89% of pixels had a coefficient of variation ≤ 4.0%. The random forest algorithm was used to create a strong prediction of suitable habitat for the years 2050 and 2100 from both high and low emission climate projections. The results clearly suggest a significant gain in suitable habitat for Tsuga canadensis range with a general northwest expansion.

  2. Projection for new city future scenarios – A case study for Kuwait

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nayef Alghais

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The creation of new cities is a planning approach adopted in several regions around the world, in order to accommodate urban growth. New cities are typically constructed according to well-thought out, centralised plans in areas without any prior development. However, whether the development of these new cities is able to address existing urban issues more effectively than traditional methods such as intensification, is currently an unanswered research question. Several Arabian Gulf countries, such as Kuwait are considering the construction of new cities to address urban issues, specifically the traffic congestion and housing shortages. In Kuwait, the master plan for these construction projects was developed solely by state authorities without any public participation or urban modelling that may have provided a more well-rounded view of the potential impacts and effectiveness.This paper aims to address these research opportunities of investigating the effectiveness of new cities in addressing traffic congestion and housing shortage, as well as the potential to integrate public opinions in urban development in the form of a model. Towards that end, the study proposes an Agent Based Model (ABM that will allow simulating the population distribution and urban growth impacts of new cities in Kuwait by 2050. The methodology involves collecting primary data via interviewing the key government stakeholders of urban development and surveying the residents in order to collect the model inputs. In Kuwait's society, citizens and non-citizens form two distinct resident groups with often very diverse needs and lifestyles; hence the survey responses will differentiate between them. The data from the interviews and surveys from both resident groups will be incorporated as agent behaviours in the ABM. The simulations examine a multitude of scenarios for the new cities, involving construction delays and infrastructure project delays. The results indicate that the

  3. Strategies towards a 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in the Future Climate Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    2009-01-01

    energy system by the year 2050 are presented. Two short term transition target years in the process towards this goal are analysed for 2015 and 2030. The analyses reveal that implementing energy savings, renewable energy and more efficient conversion technologies can have positive socioeconomic effects......, create employment and potentially lead to large earnings on exports. If externalities such as health effects etc. are included, even more benefits can be expected. 100 per cent renewable energy systems will be technically possible in the future, and may even be economically beneficial compared......Greenhouse gas mitigation strategies are generally considered costly with world leaders often engaging in debate concerning the costs of mitigation and the distribution of these costs between different countries. In this paper, the analyses and results of the design of a 100 per cent renewable...

  4. NASA Innovation Fund 2010 Project Elastically Shaped Future Air Vehicle Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Nhan

    2010-01-01

    This report describes a study conducted in 2010 under the NASA Innovation Fund Award to develop innovative future air vehicle concepts. Aerodynamic optimization was performed to produce three different aircraft configuration concepts for low drag, namely drooped wing, inflected wing, and squashed fuselage. A novel wing shaping control concept is introduced. This concept describes a new capability of actively controlling wing shape in-flight to minimize drag. In addition, a novel flight control effector concept is developed to enable wing shaping control. This concept is called a variable camber continuous trailing edge flap that can reduce drag by as much as 50% over a conventional flap. In totality, the potential benefits of fuel savings offered by these concepts can be significant.

  5. Potential Bias in Projecting Future Regional Megadrought Risk: Insights From A Global Data-Model Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T.; Cole, J. E.; Fasullo, J.; Loope, G. R.; Parsons, L. A.; Stevenson, S.

    2015-12-01

    Megadrought is one of the most significant and costly climate extremes, and one that stakeholders (e.g., water and other resource managers) the world over wish to understand better; in particular, they need estimates of the risk of severe droughts as a function of drought frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. In many dry-climate regions of the globe, megadrought is synonymous with multi-decadal drought. However, in other regions, megadrought can be defined as extended drought, mostly not seen in the period of instrumental observations, and that would have large impacts if it were to occur in the future. New and published paleoclimatic observations allow us to understand the spectrum of drought in many regions of the globe; droughts exceeding 50 years have occurred in recent Earth history in southwestern North America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Mediterranean and Australia, whereas shorter megadroughts have occurred in Monsoon Asia, Amazonia and elsewhere. Data-model comparisons for regions with sufficiently long (e.g., 1000-2000 years) records of observed hydroclimatic variability suggest that state-of-the-art models can provide realistic estimates of interannual to decadal drought risk, but underestimate the risk of megadrought. Likely reasons for this shortcoming are the lack of sufficient multi-decadal variability in simulations of the past and future, plus an underappreciated understanding about how temperature variability and land-surface feedbacks interact with hydrological and ecological drought, as well as the roles played by unusually wet hydroclimatic extremes (e.g., ENSO related) in ending droughts of long duration. Paleoclimatic records also provide the opportunity to estimate how much models underestimate megadrought risk as a function of locale, frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration; they also aid in providing stakeholders with bias-corrected estimates of megadrought risk.

  6. Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2014-05-01

    Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

  7. Progress of and future plans for the L-4 Blanket Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daenner, W.; Ioki, K.; Cardella, A.

    2001-01-01

    The ITER L-4 Blanket Project has achieved substantial progress over the last two years. The qualification of materials so far considered as reference for the shield module fabrication has been completed, as well as the developments for joining the triplex First Wall structure. Several Primary Wall, baffle, and limiter mock-ups have been manufactured and tested showing comfortable margins against the loads expected in ITER. Shield prototypes have been manufactured by conventional and advanced technology, which have finally demonstrated the manufacturing feasibility. More recently, activities for the qualification of the module attachment system have been started, and first results from materials and mock-up tests have become available. Several test campaigns are still to be finished to complete the data base for the design. In the meantime, further activities have been initiated to adapt the R and D programme to the ITER-FEAT design features, with the aim to further reduce the cost. (author)

  8. Future direction of air separation design for gasification, IGCC and alternative fuel projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allam, R.J.; Castel-Smith, H.; Smith, A.R.; Sorensen, J.C. [Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Low pressure and elevated pressure cryogenic air separation units (ASUs) have successfully been applied to support gasification projects worldwide. ASU technology has ranged from traditional, low pressure, standalone facilities supplying products only to the gasification island, to highly integrated, elevated pressure facilities that obtain air feed from and inject excess nitrogen into a gas turbine. The near-term direction of ASUs is increased single unit capacity, process optimizations that will benefit integration with the new generation of higher pressure ratio and increased capacity gas turbines, and overall ASU facility optimization for the specialized requirements of shipboard units for remote gas conversion processes. Longer-term development is proceeding on compression and driver requirements to support cost improvements for 10,000 to 20,000 merit ton per day oxygen facilities for onshore or platform-based gas conversion processes. 8 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  9. Future direction of air separation design for gasification, IGCC and alternative fuel projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allam, R.J.; Castel-Smith, H.; Smith, A.R.; Sorensen, J.C. (Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (United States))

    1998-01-01

    Low pressure and elevated pressure cryogenic air separation units (ASUs) have successfully been applied to support gasification projects worldwide. ASU technology has ranged from traditional, low pressure, standalone facilities supplying products only to the gasification island, to highly integrated, elevated pressure facilities that obtain air feed from and inject excess nitrogen into a gas turbine. The near-term direction of ASUs is increased single unit capacity, process optimizations that will benefit integration with the new generation of higher pressure ratio and increased capacity gas turbines, and overall ASU facility optimization for the specialized requirements of shipboard units for remote gas conversion processes. Longer-term development is proceeding on compression and driver requirements to support cost improvements for 10,000 to 20,000 merit ton per day oxygen facilities for onshore or platform-based gas conversion processes. 8 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  10. Projecting hydropower production under future climates: a review of modelling challenges and open questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefli, Bettina

    2015-04-01

    Hydropower is a pillar for renewable electricity production in almost all world regions. The planning horizon of major hydropower infrastructure projects stretches over several decades and consideration of evolving climatic conditions plays an ever increasing role. This review of model-based climate change impact assessments provides a synthesis of the wealth of underlying modelling assumptions, highlights the importance of local factors and attempts to identify the most urgent open questions. Based on existing case studies, it critically discusses whether current hydro-climatic modelling frameworks are likely to provide narrow enough water scenario ranges to be included into economic analyses for end-to-end climate change impact assessments including electricity market models. This will be completed with an overview of not or indirectly climate-related boundary conditions, such as economic growth, legal constraints, national subsidy frameworks or growing competition for water, which might locally largely outweigh any climate change impacts.

  11. Energy, electricity and nuclear power: Developments and projections - 25 years past and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-12-01

    This report is based on the annual IAEA publication, Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2030, Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1). The IAEA has been publishing RDS-1 since 1981. It reports on the current status and estimates of energy use, electricity generation and nuclear power generation in various regions of the world for the medium to long term. The estimates are prepared in close collaboration and consultation with several international, regional and national organizations dealing with energy related statistics, such as the United Nations Department of Economic Affairs, the International Energy Agency (IEA), the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA), the World Bank, the World Nuclear Agency (WNA), the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), as well as several international energy experts. The latest issue is the 27th edition, reporting estimates for the next 24 years using 2006 as the base year. During its 26 years of regular publication, several adjustments were made to the definitions and methodology for compiling the energy data, in order to improve the quality of the data. These adjustments were in line with the overall efforts at the international level to harmonize energy statistics. For example, the United Nations Statistical Commission has been making efforts to synchronize its data series under various programmes. For RDS-1, one such adjustment was made in 2005 when the average thermal efficiency method was adopted to convert electricity produced by nuclear power plants from kilowatt-hours to joules. This had a significant impact on the values of total energy use. At this stage, the entire historical data series was also adjusted. This report provides these harmonized data series on energy use, electricity generation and nuclear power generation for the 25 year period (1980-2005). The report also compares the nuclear power projections made in the past with the projections made in

  12. Sesame improvement by induced mutations: Results of the co-ordinated research project and recommendation for future studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zanten, L. van

    2001-01-01

    The FAO/IAEA Co-ordinated Research Project has brought together sesame breeders from 11 countries. They, together with pathologists, agronomists and physiologists, have made considerable effort to advance the genetic improvement in sesame. The results and conclusions from this project cover the mutation techniques used for the genetic improvement of various aspects of sesame. These recommendations do not only deal with the application of mutation induction, but also with the wider plant breeding related objectives and methods to be considered for this semi-domesticated crop. It is clear that more advanced techniques can and should be incorporated in the process which would enhance the genetic improvement. Although five years is a relatively limited time in a plant breeding programme, the participants have been able to produce and make available a considerable pool of agronomically interesting mutant sesame germplasm. The participants in the CRP considered that, together with other specialists, plant breeders can gain fuller benefit from the mutations induced by radiation or chemicals. Work on these mutants must continue in co-operation/consultation with plant physiologists and pathologists, and with biotechnologists who may in the future be able to provide in the future methods for introducing beneficial traits from other crops into sesame. The sesame programme should include scientists from the Member States where sesame grows and scientists from developed countries who may have greater access to physiological and molecular research facilities. (author)

  13. Effects of Projected Future Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge and Storage for Two Coastal Aquifers in Guanacaste Province, Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolb, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is expected to pose a significant threat to water resources in the future. Guanacaste Province, located in northwestern Costa Rica, has a unique climate that is influenced by the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea, as well as the Central Cordillera mountain range. Although the region experiences a marked rainy season between May and November, the hot, dry summers often stress water resources. Climate change projections suggest increased temperatures and reduced precipitation for the region, which will further stress water supplies. This study focuses on the effects of climate change on groundwater resources for two coastal aquifers, Potrero and Brasilito. The UZF model package coupled with the finite difference groundwater flow model MODFLOW were used to evaluate the effect of climate change on groundwater recharge and storage. A potential evapotranspiration model was used to estimate groundwater infiltration rates used in the MODFLOW model. Climate change projections for temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to develop climate scenarios, which were compared to historical data. Preliminary results indicate that climate change could reduce future recharge, especially during the dry season. Additionally, the coastal aquifers are at increased risk of reduced storage and increased salinization due to the reductions in groundwater recharge and sea level rise. Climate change could also affect groundwater quality in the region, disrupting the ecosystem and impairing a primary source of drinking water.

  14. Future projections of insured losses in the German private building sector following the A1B climatic change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Hattermann, F.; Pinto, J. G.; Ulbrich, U.; Böhm, U.; Born, K.; Büchner, M.; Donat, M. G.; Kücken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Nissen, K.; Nocke, T.; Österle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Werner, P. C.; Burghoff, O.; Broecker, U.; Kubik, A.

    2012-04-01

    We present an overview of a complementary-approaches impact project dealing with the consequences of climate change for the natural hazard branch of the insurance industry in Germany. The project was conducted by four academic institutions together with the German Insurance Association (GDV) and finalized in autumn 2011. A causal chain is modeled that goes from global warming projections over regional meteorological impacts to regional economic losses for private buildings, hereby fully covering the area of Germany. This presentation will focus on wind storm related losses, although the method developed had also been applied in part to hail and flood impact losses. For the first time, the GDV supplied their collected set of insurance cases, dating back for decades, for such an impact study. These data were used to calibrate and validate event-based damage functions which in turn were driven by three different types of regional climate models to generate storm loss projections. The regional models were driven by a triplet of ECHAM5 experiments following the A1B scenario which were found representative in the recent ENSEMBLES intercomparison study. In our multi-modeling approach we used two types of regional climate models that conceptually differ at maximum: a dynamical model (CCLM) and a statistical model based on the idea of biased bootstrapping (STARS). As a third option we pursued a hybrid approach (statistical-dynamical downscaling). For the assessment of climate change impacts, the buildings' infrastructure and their economic value is kept at current values. For all three approaches, a significant increase of average storm losses and extreme event return levels in the German private building sector is found for future decades assuming an A1B-scenario. However, the three projections differ somewhat in terms of magnitude and regional differentiation. We have developed a formalism that allows us to express the combined effect of multi-source uncertainty on return

  15. First Grade Baseline Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Center for Innovation in Assessment (NJ1), 2013

    2013-01-01

    The First Grade Baseline Evaluation is an optional tool that can be used at the beginning of the school year to help teachers get to know the reading and language skills of each student. The evaluation is composed of seven screenings. Teachers may use the entire evaluation or choose to use those individual screenings that they find most beneficial…

  16. The IUGS/IAGC Task Group on Global Geochemical Baselines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, David B.; Wang, Xueqiu; Reeder, Shaun; Demetriades, Alecos

    2012-01-01

    The Task Group on Global Geochemical Baselines, operating under the auspices of both the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS) and the International Association of Geochemistry (IAGC), has the long-term goal of establishing a global geochemical database to document the concentration and distribution of chemical elements in the Earth’s surface or near-surface environment. The database and accompanying element distribution maps represent a geochemical baseline against which future human-induced or natural changes to the chemistry of the land surface may be recognized and quantified. In order to accomplish this long-term goal, the activities of the Task Group include: (1) developing partnerships with countries conducting broad-scale geochemical mapping studies; (2) providing consultation and training in the form of workshops and short courses; (3) organizing periodic international symposia to foster communication among the geochemical mapping community; (4) developing criteria for certifying those projects whose data are acceptable in a global geochemical database; (5) acting as a repository for data collected by those projects meeting the criteria for standardization; (6) preparing complete metadata for the certified projects; and (7) preparing, ultimately, a global geochemical database. This paper summarizes the history and accomplishments of the Task Group since its first predecessor project was established in 1988.

  17. Integrated viral clearance strategies-reflecting on the present, projecting to the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roush, David J

    2018-01-20

    Viral clearance and inactivation are critical steps in ensuring the safety of biological products derived from mammalian cell culture and are a component of an adventitious agent control strategy which spans both upstream and downstream processes. Although these approaches have been sufficient to support the development of biologics to date, the empirical and semi-quantitative nature of the approach leaves some potential gaps. For example, the concept of performing a quantitative risk assessment for the downstream components of virus safety was introduced in ICH Q5A for XMuLV. An ideal future state would be to perform a similar quantitative risk assessment for a range of viruses based on an assessment of potential virus risk in both upstream and downstream processes. This assessment combined with an integrated control strategy (including monitoring) would be extremely beneficial in minimizing potential adventitious agent risks. Significant progress has been achieved towards this goal in the last several years including recent advances in quantification of virus sequences in cell banks (ADVTIG), development of truly modular or generic viral clearance claims for specific unit operations, enhanced controls of upstream media (HTST/nanofiltration) and the use of RVLP for in-process monitoring. The recent shift towards continuous processing has the potential to enhance the criticality of in-line monitoring and the complexity of viral clearance and inactivation (owing to a wide range of potential 'worst case' viral clearance scenarios). However, gaps exist in, firstly, the ability to quantify potential virus risk levels in process streams in real-time, secondly, mechanistic understanding of virus/chromatography media interactions, and thirdly, mechanistic understanding of virus/filter interactions. Some new technologies may also need to be developed to allow for real-time confirmation of virus inactivation and clearance to support process development (both batch and

  18. Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean

  19. The Haleakala Argentine ant project: a synthesis of past research and prospects for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krushelnycky, Paul; Haines, William; Loope, Lloyd; Van Gelder, Ellen

    2011-01-01

    1. The Haleakala Argentine Ant Project is an ongoing effort to study the ecology of the invasive Argentine ant in the park, and if possible to develop a strategy to control this destructive species. 2. Past research has demonstrated that the Argentine ant causes very significant impacts on native arthropods where it invades, threatening a large portion of the park’s biodiversity in subalpine shrubland and alpine aeolian ecosystems. 3. Patterns of spread over the past 30+ years indicate that the invasion process is influenced to a substantial degree by abiotic factors such as elevation, rainfall and temperature, and that the ant has not reached its potential range. Predictions of total range in the park suggest that it has only invaded a small fraction of available suitable habitat, confirming that this species is one of most serious threats to the park’s natural resources. 4. Numerous experiments have been conducted since 1994 in an attempt to develop a method for eradicating the Argentine ant at Haleakala using pesticidal ant baits. Thirty baits have been screened for attractiveness to ants in the park, and ten of these were tested for effectiveness of control in field plots. While some of these baits have been very effective in reducing numbers of ants, none has been able to eliminate all nests in experimental plots. 5. Research into a secondary management goal of ant population containment was initiated in 1996. By treating only expanding margins of the park’s two ant populations with an ant pesticide, rates of outward spread were substantially reduced in some areas. While this strategy was implemented from 1997 to 2004, it was ultimately discontinued after 2004 because of the difficulty and insufficient effectiveness of the technique. 6. In order to achieve the types of results necessary for eradication, the project would probably need to explore the possibility of developing a specialized bait, rather than relying on a commercially produced bait. An

  20. Plastic surgery: quo vadis? Current trends and future projections of aesthetic plastic surgical procedures in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broer, P Niclas; Levine, Steven M; Juran, Sabrina

    2014-03-01

    The objective of this article was to evaluate past and current trends regarding aesthetic operations in the United States and to project future changes regarding such procedures. Cosmetic surgery statistics from the American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery from 1997 to 2012 were analyzed by sex, age, and ethnic group. Then, using population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau based on the 2010 census, two projection scenarios of the expected number of aesthetic plastic surgery procedures were generated. The scenarios included the presumed occurrence and nonoccurrence of a recession like that which occurred in 2007. Aesthetic procedures are expected to grow from 1,688,694 in 2012 to 3,847,929 by 2030, representing an average annual growth rate of 7.1 percent. Should another recession of similar degree to the one in 2007 occur, procedures would increase to only 2,086,994, displaying an average annual growth percentage rate of 1.3 percent. Because the age distribution of the patient population will change, preferences for specific procedures according to age influence-and thus are reflected in-future demand for those procedures. Furthermore, the ethnic profile of patients will change significantly, with 32 percent of all procedures being performed on patients other than Caucasians by 2030. Demand for aesthetic plastic surgical procedures is expected to continue to grow, while depending on the economic performance at the macro level and changing demographic dynamics of the U.S. population. Considering all investigated factors and trends among all patients, the most commonly requested procedures by 2030 are likely to be (1) breast augmentations, (2) lipoplasties, and (3) blepharoplasties.

  1. Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Preus, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-11-01

    Wind power is one of the fastest growing sources of new electricity generation in the United States. Cumulative installed capacity was more than 74,000 megawatts (MW) at year-end 2015 and wind power supplied 4.7% of total 2015 U.S. electricity generation. Despite the growth of the wind power industry, the distributed wind market has remained limited. Cumulative installations of distributed wind through 2015 totaled 934 MW. This first-of-a-kind exploratory analysis characterizes the future opportunity for behind-the-meter distributed wind, serving primarily rural or suburban homes, farms, and manufacturing facilities. This work focuses only on the grid-connected, behind-the-meter subset of the broader distributed wind market. We estimate this segment to be approximately half of the 934 MW of total installed distributed wind capacity at year-end 2015. Potential from other distributed wind market segments including systems installed in front of the meter (e.g., community wind) and in remote, off-grid locations is not assessed in this analysis and therefore, would be additive to results presented here. These other distributed wind market segments are not considered in this initial effort because of their relatively unique economic and market attributes.

  2. PET motion correction in context of integrated PET/MR: Current techniques, limitations, and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillman, Ashley; Smith, Jye; Thomas, Paul; Rose, Stephen; Dowson, Nicholas

    2017-12-01

    Patient motion is an important consideration in modern PET image reconstruction. Advances in PET technology mean motion has an increasingly important influence on resulting image quality. Motion-induced artifacts can have adverse effects on clinical outcomes, including missed diagnoses and oversized radiotherapy treatment volumes. This review aims to summarize the wide variety of motion correction techniques available in PET and combined PET/CT and PET/MR, with a focus on the latter. A general framework for the motion correction of PET images is presented, consisting of acquisition, modeling, and correction stages. Methods for measuring, modeling, and correcting motion and associated artifacts, both in literature and commercially available, are presented, and their relative merits are contrasted. Identified limitations of current methods include modeling of aperiodic and/or unpredictable motion, attaining adequate temporal resolution for motion correction in dynamic kinetic modeling acquisitions, and maintaining availability of the MR in PET/MR scans for diagnostic acquisitions. Finally, avenues for future investigation are discussed, with a focus on improvements that could improve PET image quality, and that are practical in the clinical environment. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

  3. Contributions of internal climate variability to mitigation of projected future regional sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, A.; Bates, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    Observations indicate that the global mean surface temperature is rising, so does the global mean sea level. Sea level rise (SLR) can impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities, especially when SLR is compounded with storm surges. Here, via analyzing results from two sets of ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1, we investigate how the potential SLR benefits through mitigating the future emission scenarios from business as usual to a mild-mitigation over the 21st Century would be affected by internal climate variability. Results show that there is almost no SLR benefit in the near term due to the large SLR variability due to the internal ocean dynamics. However, toward the end of the 21st century, the SLR benefit can be as much as a 26±1% reduction of the global mean SLR due to seawater thermal expansion. Regionally, the benefits from this mitigation for both near and long terms are heterogeneous. They vary from just a 11±5% SLR reduction in Melbourne, Australia to a 35±6% reduction in London. The processes contributing to these regional differences are the coupling of the wind-driven ocean circulation with the decadal scale sea surface temperature mode in the Pacific and Southern Oceans, and the changes of the thermohaline circulation and the mid-latitude air-sea coupling in the Atlantic.

  4. Economic impacts on West Virginia from projected future coal production and implications for policymakers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, L J; Cleetus, R; Clemmer, S; Deyette, J

    2014-01-01

    Multiple economic and geologic factors are driving fundamental changes in the nation’s energy system, weakening coal’s dominance as a fuel for electricity generation, with significant implications for places like West Virginia that are heavily dependent on coal for economic activity. Some of these factors include low natural gas prices, rising labor costs and declining productivity, economic competition with other coal mining regions, environmental regulations to reduce pollution and safeguard public health, state energy efficiency and renewable electricity standards, falling costs of renewable energy resources like wind and solar, and the likely prospect of future limits on greenhouse gas emissions. This analysis uses an input–output model to examine the effects on West Virginia’s economy from these multiple factors by exploring a range of scenarios for coal production through 2020. In addition to changes in the coal industry, hypothetical investments in additional sectors of the economy are considered as a way to gauge potential alternative economic opportunities. This paper offers recommendations to policymakers for alternative economic development strategies needed to create new jobs and diversify the state’s economy, and highlights the importance of transition assistance at the federal level. (paper)

  5. Staffing requirements for future small and medium reactors based on projections in the Russian Federation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonovsky, G.M.; Kodochigov, N.G.; Kurachenkov, A.V.; Novikov, V.V.

    2001-01-01

    Experimental Design Bureau of Mechanical Engineering (OKBM) specializes in the development of small and medium power reactors having different purposes. They include reactor plants for NPHPP, nuclear district heating power plants and propulsion plants. Small and medium power plants have simpler processes of electricity and heat production, less systems, simpler control algorithms and considerably enhanced inherent safety properties. These plants are mainly equipped with passive safety systems. These properties are especially characteristic for reactor plants of nuclear district heating power plants and HTG reactor plants. The designs of small and medium power plants actually provide a high degree of control automation which considerably reduces workload on the personnel in both normal and abnormal operation conditions. All this allows the reduction in personnel for small and medium power reactors if compared to high capacity reactor plants. But due to objective reasons the specific number of personnel (man/MW) for average and especially small capacity reactors considerably exceeds the value for high capacity reactor plants. At the same time one can propose a set of organization - technical measures allowing the increase in this value in future. Safety requirements imposed for small and average capacity reactors are the same or more strict than those for high capacity reactors. That's why the requirements to the training of personnel for such reactor plants are not allowed to be lowered if compared to the requirements imposed to the personnel of high capacity reactors. (author)

  6. The bioeroding sponge Cliona orientalis will not tolerate future projected ocean warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsby, Blake D; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Smith, Hillary A; Whalan, Steve; Webster, Nicole S

    2018-05-29

    Coral reefs face many stressors associated with global climate change, including increasing sea surface temperature and ocean acidification. Excavating sponges, such as Cliona spp., are expected to break down reef substrata more quickly as seawater becomes more acidic. However, increased bioerosion requires that Cliona spp. maintain physiological performance and health under continuing ocean warming. In this study, we exposed C. orientalis to temperature increments increasing from 23 to 32 °C. At 32 °C, or 3 °C above the maximum monthly mean (MMM) temperature, sponges bleached and the photosynthetic capacity of Symbiodinium was compromised, consistent with sympatric corals. Cliona orientalis demonstrated little capacity to recover from thermal stress, remaining bleached with reduced Symbiodinium density and energy reserves after one month at reduced temperature. In comparison, C. orientalis was not observed to bleach during the 2017 coral bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef, when temperatures did not reach the 32 °C threshold. While C. orientalis can withstand current temperature extremes (<3 °C above MMM) under laboratory and natural conditions, this species would not survive ocean temperatures projected for 2100 without acclimatisation or adaptation (≥3 °C above MMM). Hence, as ocean temperatures increase above local thermal thresholds, C. orientalis will have a negligible impact on reef erosion.

  7. Future Projections of Fire Occurrence in Brazil Using EC-Earth Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Silva

    Full Text Available Abstract Fire has a fundamental role in the Earth system as it influences global and local ecosystem patterns and processes, such as vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle and climate. Since, in the global context, Brazil is one of the regions with higher fire activity, an assessment is here performed of the sensitivity of the wildfire regime in Brazilian savanna and shrubland areas to changes in regional climate during the 21st Century, for an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5 of climate change. The assessment is based on a spatial and temporal analysis of a meteorological fire danger index specifically developed for Brazilian biomes, which was evaluated based on regional climate simulations of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4 forced by the EC-Earth earth system model. Results show a systematic increase in the extreme levels of fire danger throughout the 21st Century that mainly results from the increase in maximum daily temperature, which rises by about 2 °C between 2005 and 2100. This study provides new insights about projected fire activity in Brazilian woody savannas associated to climate change and is expected to benefit the user community, from governmental policies to land management and climate researches.

  8. Advanced neutron source project information management. A model for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King-Jones, K.; Cleaves, J.

    1995-01-01

    The Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) is a proposed new research facility that will provide steady-state beams of neutrons for experiments by more than 1000 researchers per year in the fields of materials science and engineering, biology, chemistry, materials analysis, and nuclear science. The facility will also include irradiation capabilities to produce radioisotopes for medical applications, research, industry, and materials testing. This paper discusses the architecture and data flow used by the project, some quantitative examinations of potential cost savings and return on investment and software applications used to generate and manage data across IBM-compatible personal computers, Macintosh, and Unix-based workstations. Personnel management aspects addressed include providing paper copy to users only when needed for adequate technical review, using graded approaches to providing support for numerous user-needed software applications, and implementing a phased approach to compliance with computer-aided acquisition and logistic support (CALS) standards that allows sufficient user flexibility for performing technical tasks while providing needed data sharing and integration

  9. Advanced Neutron Source project information management: A model for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King-Jones, K.; Cleaves, J.

    1995-01-01

    The Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) is a proposed new research facility that will provide steady-state beams of neutrons for experiments by more than 1,000 researchers per year in the fields of materials science and engineering, biology, chemistry, materials analysis, and nuclear science. The facility will also include irradiation capabilities to produce radioisotopes for medical applications, research, industry, and materials testing. This paper discusses the architecture and data flow used by the project, some quantitative examinations of potential cost savings and return on investment, and software applications used to generate and manage data across IBM-compatible personal computers, Macintosh, and Unix-based workstations. Personnel management aspects addressed include providing paper copy to users only when needed for adequate technical review, using graded approaches to providing support for numerous user-needed software applications, and implementing a phased approach to compliance with computer-aided acquisition and logistic support (CALS) standards that allows sufficient user flexibility for performing technical tasks while providing needed data sharing and integration

  10. Projected Impact of Compositional Verification on Current and Future Aviation Safety Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reveley, Mary S.; Withrow, Colleen A.; Leone, Karen M.; Jones, Sharon M.

    2014-01-01

    The projected impact of compositional verification research conducted by the National Aeronautic and Space Administration System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technologies on aviation safety risk was assessed. Software and compositional verification was described. Traditional verification techniques have two major problems: testing at the prototype stage where error discovery can be quite costly and the inability to test for all potential interactions leaving some errors undetected until used by the end user. Increasingly complex and nondeterministic aviation systems are becoming too large for these tools to check and verify. Compositional verification is a "divide and conquer" solution to addressing increasingly larger and more complex systems. A review of compositional verification research being conducted by academia, industry, and Government agencies is provided. Forty-four aviation safety risks in the Biennial NextGen Safety Issues Survey were identified that could be impacted by compositional verification and grouped into five categories: automation design; system complexity; software, flight control, or equipment failure or malfunction; new technology or operations; and verification and validation. One capability, 1 research action, 5 operational improvements, and 13 enablers within the Federal Aviation Administration Joint Planning and Development Office Integrated Work Plan that could be addressed by compositional verification were identified.

  11. Potential for a hazardous geospheric response to projected future climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, B

    2010-05-28

    Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the geosphere, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. The response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a broad range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and subaerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide 'splash' waves, glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilization. In relation to anthropogenic climate change, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a warmer world, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere. Here, the potential influences of anthropogenic warming are reviewed in relation to an array of geological and geomorphological hazards across a range of environmental settings. A programme of focused research is advocated in order to: (i) understand better those mechanisms by which contemporary climate change may drive hazardous geological and geomorphological activity; (ii) delineate those parts of the world that are most susceptible; and (iii) provide a more robust appreciation of potential impacts for society and infrastructure.

  12. The Asian Development Bank's past and future involvement in financing gas projects in developing member countries of the Bank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chua, S.B.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents a review of the Bank's involvement in financing gas projects in its developing member countries (DMC's). The paper highlights the scope of the Bank's past activities in the sector, the DMC's which had received assistance from the Bank, the types of projects financed by the Bank, the benefits expected to be derived from the projects, and the past problems encountered by the Bank. The operational framework under which past Bank lending to the gas sector was conducted is also described. The prospects of natural gas playing a prominent role as an environmentally preferred energy source to oil and coal are outlined. Indications of the direction of the Bank's future efforts to help its gas-resource-rich as well as its gas-resource-poor DMC's to quicken the use of natural gas are given. While emphasizing the Bank's contributions in helping its DMC's to increase gas supply to alleviate energy shortages, the paper stresses the important role the Bank has played and will play in institution-building and sector-development work. The paper explores the possibility for the Bank to expand its operations in the gas sector which will lead to the efficient and accelerated development of a clean energy source that will help its DMC's avoid a third oil crisis and reduce the damaging build-up of a greenhouse gas which now threatens to harm the global environment

  13. A method to encapsulate model structural uncertainty in ensemble projections of future climate: EPIC v1.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Jared; Bodeker, Greg E.; Kremser, Stefanie; Tait, Andrew

    2017-12-01

    computationally efficient than running multiple GCM or RCM simulations. Such a large ensemble of projections permits a description of a probability density function (PDF) of future climate states rather than a small number of individual story lines within that PDF, which may not be representative of the PDF as a whole; the EPIC method largely corrects for such potential sampling biases. The method is useful for providing projections of changes in climate to users wishing to investigate the impacts and implications of climate change in a probabilistic way. A web-based tool, using the EPIC method to provide probabilistic projections of changes in daily maximum and minimum temperatures for New Zealand, has been developed and is described in this paper.

  14. Acidic deposition: State of science and technology. Report 14. Methods for projecting future changes in surface water acid-base chemistry. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thornton, K.W.; Marmorek, D.; Ryan, P.F.; Heltcher, K.; Robinson, D.

    1990-09-01

    The objectives of the report are to: critically evaluate methods for projecting future effects of acidic deposition on surface water acid-base chemistry; review and evaluate techniques and procedures for analyzing projection uncertainty; review procedures for estimating regional lake and stream population attributes; review the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Direct/Delayed Response Project (DDRP) methodology for projecting the effects of acidic deposition on future changes in surface water acid-base chemistry; and present the models, uncertainty estimators, population estimators, and proposed approach selected to project the effects of acidic deposition on future changes in surface water acid-base chemistry in the NAPAP 1990 Integrated Assessment and discuss the selection rationale

  15. Environmental baselines: preparing for shale gas in the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloomfield, John; Manamsa, Katya; Bell, Rachel; Darling, George; Dochartaigh, Brighid O.; Stuart, Marianne; Ward, Rob

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater is a vital source of freshwater in the UK. It provides almost 30% of public water supply on average, but locally, for example in south-east England, it is constitutes nearly 90% of public supply. In addition to public supply, groundwater has a number of other uses including agriculture, industry, and food and drink production. It is also vital for maintaining river flows especially during dry periods and so is essential for maintaining ecosystem health. Recently, there have been concerns expressed about the potential impacts of shale gas development on groundwater. The UK has abundant shales and clays which are currently the focus of considerable interest and there is active research into their characterisation, resource evaluation and exploitation risks. The British Geological Survey (BGS) is undertaking research to provide information to address some of the environmental concerns related to the potential impacts of shale gas development on groundwater resources and quality. The aim of much of this initial work is to establish environmental baselines, such as a baseline survey of methane occurrence in groundwater (National methane baseline study) and the spatial relationships between potential sources and groundwater receptors (iHydrogeology project), prior to any shale gas exploration and development. The poster describes these two baseline studies and presents preliminary findings. BGS are currently undertaking a national survey of baseline methane concentrations in groundwater across the UK. This work will enable any potential future changes in methane in groundwater associated with shale gas development to be assessed. Measurements of methane in potable water from the Cretaceous, Jurassic and Triassic carbonate and sandstone aquifers are variable and reveal methane concentrations of up to 500 micrograms per litre, but the mean value is relatively low at documented in the range 2km. The geological modelling process will be presented and discussed

  16. Future semiconductor material requirements and innovations as projected in the ITRS 2005 roadmap

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arden, Wolfgang

    2006-01-01

    The international technology roadmap for semiconductors (ITRS) is a joint global effort of the semiconductor industry, the manufacturing equipment and material industry and the research community and consortia to define the future requirements and development of the semiconductor technology for the next 15 years. The ITRS started in 1992 as a US-national roadmap and became an international effort in 1998 with all major five industrial global regions (US, Japan, Taiwan, Korea and Europe) participating in its definition. The outlook in semiconductor manufacturing expects the continuous application of silicon technology for the next 15 years where complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) based devices will carry the development of the industry at least for one more decade. New device architectures and concepts based on silicon wafer material are being developed to support the development of the IC industry for another one or two decade. The major section of the ITRS contains technical information about frontend processing and interconnects, device structures and memory concepts, lithography and metrology as well as factory integration and environmental issues. This paper will review the material requirements and the expected material innovations for the industry as outlined in the ITRS Version 2005. Materials to be discussed are, for example, high permittivity gate dielectrics, insulating layers with low dielectric constants for interconnects, and capacitor dielectrics for dynamic memories. In addition, the paper will address, for example, new transistor gate materials, new solutions for interconnect systems beyond copper as well as new starting materials for wafer sizes beyond 300 mm. This publication was presented as an invited paper in the Symposium V of the 2006 spring meeting of the European Materials Research Society (E-MRS) in Nice, May 29th

  17. Financing arrangements for nuclear power projects - Past and present experience, future expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Troncuta, Mariana; Vatamanu, Maria; Ispas, Gheorghe

    2003-01-01

    Nuclear energy is a clean, safe, and economical industrial electricity source, with many environmental benefits. It does not emit greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change, or combustion by-products and acid gases that cause air, water resource and land pollution. Nuclear energy has also many benefits in the areas of medicine, industry, agriculture, and research. Moreover, the results are revealing. Over the past 12 years, from 1900 to 2002, the global 'energy availability factor' - representing the percentage of time that nuclear power plants worldwide were up and running - increased from 72.9% to 83.4%. At the same time, based on statistics gathered by the World Association of Nuclear Operators - WANO, the number of industrial accidents has gone down, radiation exposure has dropped sharply and the annual volume of radioactive waste produced has been reduced substantially. In other words, the safety, performance and economic competitiveness of the nuclear industry are at an all time high, reflecting a mature and vibrant enterprise. These are several reasons why a prospective host nation and other nations around the world may be attracted by nuclear power generation. Nuclear power can be and has been financed by world capital markets. The crucial question is whether host governments and interested utilities are willing to take the steps required to attract investment with reasonable assurance of success, and whether the nuclear industry is willing and able to become competitive in increasingly deregulated financial and electricity markets. The present paper will have the following structure: the first part will refer to general financing guidelines, and the second part will present a case study. The latter will treat the past experience as provided by the financing scheme of Cernavoda NPP Unit 1, the present experience, i.e. ongoing financing issues for Cernavoda NPP Unit 2 and potential future shared contribution to financing Cernavoda NPP Unit 3, 4 and 5

  18. From Past to future: the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project's contribution to CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kageyama, Masa; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy; Haywood, Alan; Jungclaus, Johann; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako

    2016-04-01

    Since the 1990s, PMIP has developed with the following objectives: 1/to evaluate the ability of climate models used for climate prediction in simulating well-documented past climates outside the range of present and recent climate variability; 2/to understand the mechanisms of these climate changes, in particular the role of the different climate feedbacks. To achieve these goals, PMIP has actively fostered paleo-data syntheses, multi-model analyses, including analyses of relationships between model results from past and future simulations, and model-data comparisons. For CMIP6, PMIP will focus on five past periods: - the Last Millennium (850 CE - present), to analyse natural climate variability on multidecadal or longer time-scales - the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago, to compare model runs with paleodata for a period of warmer climate in the Northern Hemisphere, with an enhanced hydrological cycle - the Last Glacial Maximum, 21000 years ago, to evaluate the ability of climate models to represent a cold climate extreme and examine whether paleoinformation about this period can help and constrain climate sensitivity - the Last InterGlacial (~127,000 year ago), which provides a benchmark for a period of high sea-level stand - the mid-Pliocene warm period (~3.2 million years ago), which allows for the evaluation of the model's long-term response to a CO2 level analogous to the modern one. This poster will present the rationale of these "PMIP4-CMIP6" experiments. Participants are invited to come and discuss about the experimental set-up and the model output to be distributed via CMIP6. For more information and discussion of the PMIP4-CMIP6 experimental design, please visit: https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/pmip3/doku.php/pmip3:cmip6:design:index

  19. Response of the Arctic pteropod Limacina helicina to projected future environmental conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steeve Comeau

    Full Text Available Thecosome pteropods (pelagic mollusks can play a key role in the food web of various marine ecosystems. They are a food source for zooplankton or higher predators such as fishes, whales and birds that is particularly important in high latitude areas. Since they harbor a highly soluble aragonitic shell, they could be very sensitive to ocean acidification driven by the increase of anthropogenic CO(2 emissions. The effect of changes in the seawater chemistry was investigated on Limacina helicina, a key species of Arctic pelagic ecosystems. Individuals were kept in the laboratory under controlled pCO(2 levels of 280, 380, 550, 760 and 1020 microatm and at control (0 degrees C and elevated (4 degrees C temperatures. The respiration rate was unaffected by pCO(2 at control temperature, but significantly increased as a function of the pCO(2 level at elevated temperature. pCO(2 had no effect on the gut clearance rate at either temperature. Precipitation of CaCO(3, measured as the incorporation of (45Ca, significantly declined as a function of pCO(2 at both temperatures. The decrease in calcium carbonate precipitation was highly correlated to the aragonite saturation state. Even though this study demonstrates that pteropods are able to precipitate calcium carbonate at low aragonite saturation state, the results support the current concern for the future of Arctic pteropods, as the production of their shell appears to be very sensitive to decreased pH. A decline of pteropod populations would likely cause dramatic changes to various pelagic ecosystems.

  20. Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, J.O.; Bigelow, N.H.; Prentice, I.C.; Harrison, S.P.; Bartlein, P.J.; Christensen, T.R.; Cramer, W.; Matveyeva, N.V.; McGuire, A.D.; Murray, D.F.; Razzhivin, V.Y.; Smith, B.; Walker, D.A.; Anderson, P.M.; Andreev, A.A.; Brubaker, L.B.; Edwards, M.E.; Lozhkin, A.V.

    2003-01-01

    Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55??N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

  1. Modeling of seasonal water balance for crop production in Bangladesh with implications for future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed R. Karim

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Expecting the projected regional or global climate change, weather could have a significant effect on soil moisture and thereby affecting the plant growth. Water deficiency is considered as one of the major climatic restraints for crop production in Bangladesh, especially in the dry season. To better understand the crop responses to moisture variation, a quantitative analysis is done for major water balance components named, potential evapotranspiration (PET, actual evapotranspiration (AET, soil moisture storage (ST, water deficiency (WD and water surplus (WS with the use of Thornthwaite monthly water balance program. Analyses were carried out for three different seasons, together with interannual variability for 12 major rice growing districts of Bangladesh representing the north, central, southern and coastal zones. Hindcasted monthly average surface air temperature and precipitation data were collected from Bangladesh meteorological department during 1986 to 2006. Results suggested, trend of PET was same in every station and generally higher values were observed in the month of July and August. Khulna, the coastal station had the highest annual average PET of 1369 mm. The lowest annual AET of 1108 mm was estimated for Teknaf, while Dinajpur stood in second lowest position. ST was found almost at field capacity from July to September and, the southern station Chittagong experienced the highest average monthly ST. Maximum WD was found in Bogra and second highest shortage was in Dinajpur. The assessment of average WD of 178 mm yr-1 in northern Bangladesh reflected the worst situation among all regions, besides focusing the winter as the most crucial season regarding the water scarcity. Least amount of WS was noticed for the southern station Khulna. Significant positive relationship (p<0.05 between soil moisture and current rice yields proved the importance of surplus water conservation for the drought prone zone of Bangladesh. To boost up the

  2. Rationing with baselines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Moreno-Ternero, Juan D.; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a new operator for general rationing problems in which, besides conflicting claims, individual baselines play an important role in the rationing process. The operator builds onto ideas of composition, which are not only frequent in rationing, but also in related problems...... such as bargaining, choice, and queuing. We characterize the operator and show how it preserves some standard axioms in the literature on rationing. We also relate it to recent contributions in such literature....

  3. I and C success in Korea past and present projects and a view to the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ridolfo, Charles F.

    2009-01-01

    reliance', for I and C nuclear technology and currently includes a series of I and C training programs for Korean engineers. This paper discusses the critical factors that resulted in the successful deployment of advanced I and C technology for the commissioned plants; provides an overview of the I and C technology and work processes that are being implemented for the plants what will soon become operational; and provides a view of advance I and C technology, which is on the horizon and which will be the basis of future nuclear I and C applications

  4. Surface Energy and Mass Balance Model for Greenland Ice Sheet and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaojian

    The Greenland Ice Sheet contains nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of glacial ice. If the entire ice sheet completely melted, sea level would raise by nearly 7 meters. There is thus considerable interest in monitoring the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Each year, the ice sheet gains ice from snowfall and loses ice through iceberg calving and surface melting. In this thesis, we develop, validate and apply a physics based numerical model to estimate current and future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The numerical model consists of a coupled surface energy balance and englacial model that is simple enough that it can be used for long time scale model runs, but unlike previous empirical parameterizations, has a physical basis. The surface energy balance model predicts ice sheet surface temperature and melt production. The englacial model predicts the evolution of temperature and meltwater within the ice sheet. These two models can be combined with estimates of precipitation (snowfall) to estimate the mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet. We first compare model performance with in-situ observations to demonstrate that the model works well. We next evaluate how predictions are degraded when we statistically downscale global climate data. We find that a simple, nearest neighbor interpolation scheme with a lapse rate correction is able to adequately reproduce melt patterns on the Greenland Ice Sheet. These results are comparable to those obtained using empirical Positive Degree Day (PDD) methods. Having validated the model, we next drove the ice sheet model using the suite of atmospheric model runs available through the CMIP5 atmospheric model inter-comparison, which in turn built upon the RCP 8.5 (business as usual) scenarios. From this exercise we predict how much surface melt production will increase in the coming century. This results in 4-10 cm sea level equivalent, depending on the CMIP5 models. Finally, we try to bound melt water

  5. The TDAQ Baseline Architecture

    CERN Multimedia

    Wickens, F J

    The Trigger-DAQ community is currently busy preparing material for the DAQ, HLT and DCS TDR. Over the last few weeks a very important step has been a series of meetings to complete agreement on the baseline architecture. An overview of the architecture indicating some of the main parameters is shown in figure 1. As reported at the ATLAS Plenary during the February ATLAS week, the main area where the baseline had not yet been agreed was around the Read-Out System (ROS) and details in the DataFlow. The agreed architecture has: Read-Out Links (ROLs) from the RODs using S-Link; Read-Out Buffers (ROB) sited near the RODs, mounted in a chassis - today assumed to be a PC, using PCI bus at least for configuration, control and monitoring. The baseline assumes data aggregation, in the ROB and/or at the output (which could either be over a bus or in the network). Optimization of the data aggregation will be made in the coming months, but the current model has each ROB card receiving input from 4 ROLs, and 3 such c...