WorldWideScience

Sample records for project decision making

  1. Decision-making process in investment projects

    OpenAIRE

    Moutinho, Nuno

    2011-01-01

    We present projects evaluation approaches in what decision should be based. We try to understand what we have to take into account in a project analysis, knowing that we have to consider much unmeasured aspects, like non non-financial areas. We verify how all aspects are used and analysed in the project appraisal. We also desire to understand if companies have adequate tools and methods to correctly analyse and to take decisions in a project evaluation. In this study we identify several as...

  2. How Useful Are Climate Projections for Adaptation Decision Making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J. B.; Vogel, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    Decision making is often portrayed as a linear process that assumes scientific knowledge is a necessary precursor to effective policy and is used directly in policy making. Yet, in practice, the use of scientific information in decision making is more complex than the linear model implies. The use of climate projections in adaptation decision making is a case in point. This paper briefly reviews efforts by some decision makers to understand climate change risks and to apply this knowledge when making decisions on management of climate sensitive resources and infrastructure . In general, and in spite of extensive efforts to study climate change at the regional and local scale to support decision making, few decisions outside of adapting to sea level rise appear to directly apply to climate change projections. A number of U.S. municipalities and states, including Seattle, New York City, Phoenix, and the States of California and Washington, have used climate change projections to assess their vulnerability to various climate change impacts. Some adaptation decisions have been made based on projections of sea level rise, such as change in location of infrastructure. This may be because a future rise is sea level is virtually certain. In contrast, decision making on precipitation has been more limited, even where there is consensus on likely changes in sign of the variable. Nonetheless, decision makers are adopting strategies that can be justified based on current climate and climate variability and that also reduce risks to climate change. A key question for the scientific community is whether improved projections will add value to decision making. For example, it remains unclear how higher-resolution projections can change decision making as long as the sign and magnitude of projections across climate models and downscaling techniques retains a wide range of uncertainty. It is also unclear whether even better information on the sign and magnitude of change would

  3. Applying decision-making techniques to Civil Engineering Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fam F. Abdel-malak

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM techniques are found to be useful tools in project managers’ hands to overcome decision-making (DM problems in Civil Engineering Projects (CEPs. The main contribution of this paper includes selecting and studying the popular MCDM techniques that uses different and wide ranges of data types in CEPs. A detailed study including advantages and pitfalls of using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP and Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Fuzzy TOPSIS is introduced. Those two techniques are selected for the purpose of forming a package that covers most available data types in CEPs. The results indicated that AHP has a structure which simplifies complicated problems, while Fuzzy TOPSIS uses the advantages of linguistic variables to solve the issue of undocumented data and ill-defined problems. Furthermore, AHP is a simple technique that depends on pairwise comparisons of factors and natural attributes, beside it is preferable for widely spread hierarchies. On the other hand, Fuzzy TOPSIS needs more information but works well for the one-tier decision tree as well as it shows more flexibility to work in fuzzy environments. The two techniques have the facility to be integrated and combined in a new module to support most of the decisions required in CEPs. Keywords: Decision-making, AHP, Fuzzy TOPSIS, CBA, Civil Engineering Projects

  4. The rationality of intuition: Studying adaptive heuristics in project decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stingl, Verena; Geraldi, Joana

    This paper presents a research agenda for studying adaptive heuristics in project decision making. Project decisions are a potentially fruitful research field for adaptive heuristics. These decisions typically take place under time and information constraints, with high complexity and ambiguity...... - environments in which adaptive heuristics typically strive as effective decision tools. Yet, project decisions as a research topic introduce challenges that are currently not considered in the main body of adaptive heuristics research: the issue of group decision making, and the element of an unpredictable...... the limitations of these methods for project decision-making, and suggests alternative methodologies, suitable to cope with group decision-making and irreducible uncertainty....

  5. Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pier Luigi Baldi

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available This article points out some conditions which significantly exert an influence upon decision and compares decision making and problem solving as interconnected processes. Some strategies of decision making are also examined.

  6. Improving decision making in the early phases of configuration projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Harlou, Ulf; Haug, Anders

    2008-01-01

    During the early phases of configuration projects very important decisions are made which will heavily influence the performance of the company, benefits in different functional areas (production, sales, purchase, product development, service etc), maintenance of the configuration system...

  7. Improving decision making in the early phases of configuration projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Hvam, Lars; Harlou, Ulf

    2011-01-01

    During the early phases of configuration projects very important decisions are made which will heavily influence the performance of the company, benefits in different functional areas (production, sales, purchase, product development, service etc), maintenance of the configuration system...

  8. Decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2011-01-01

    A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.

  9. Current issues in nuclear power projects decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yanev, Y.; Rogner, H.

    2011-01-01

    Concluding Comments: Firm government commitment and support - imminent; New financing approaches/models are emerging, repackaging existing methods and combination of project finance/co-operative mode; Global financial crisis will make financing for investors very challenging, especially for large scale infrastructure projects like NNP –financial regulators to impose tougher rules (Basel III, UK bank levy, US Financial Regulatory Bill, etc; Pure project finance is still challenging for nuclear projects - the availability of finance for new NPPs will depend on the initial government support. This presentation presents a “free market” view on investment in nuclear power projects; If the public sector (governments) wishes to invest in nuclear power as part of its socioeconomic development priorities, finance is not a real obstacle; It becomes an issue in the presence of other equally important development needs and private sector participation is sought

  10. Six Sigma Project Selection Using Fuzzy TOPSIS Decision Making Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajeev Rathi

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Six Sigma is considered as a logical business strategy that attempts to identify and eliminate the defects or failures for improving the quality of product and processes. A decision on project selection in Six Sigma is always very critical; it plays a key role in successful implementation of Six Sigma. Selection of a right Six Sigma project is essentially important for an automotive company because it greatly influences the manufacturing costs. This paper discusses an approach for right Six Sigma project selection at an automotive industry using fuzzy logic based TOPSIS method. The fuzzy TOPSIS is a well recognized tool to undertake the fuzziness of the data involved in choosing the right preferences. In this context, evaluation criteria have been designed for selection of best alternative. The weights of evaluation criteria are calculated by using the MDL (modified digital logic method and final ranking is calculated through priority index obtained by using fuzzy TOPSIS method. In the selected case study, this approach has rightly helped to identify the right project for implementing Six Sigma for achieving improvement in productivity.

  11. Project Assessment Framework through Design (PAFTD) - A Project Assessment Framework in Support of Strategic Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depenbrock, Brett T.; Balint, Tibor S.; Sheehy, Jeffrey A.

    2014-01-01

    Research and development organizations that push the innovation edge of technology frequently encounter challenges when attempting to identify an investment strategy and to accurately forecast the cost and schedule performance of selected projects. Fast moving and complex environments require managers to quickly analyze and diagnose the value of returns on investment versus allocated resources. Our Project Assessment Framework through Design (PAFTD) tool facilitates decision making for NASA senior leadership to enable more strategic and consistent technology development investment analysis, beginning at implementation and continuing through the project life cycle. The framework takes an integrated approach by leveraging design principles of useability, feasibility, and viability and aligns them with methods employed by NASA's Independent Program Assessment Office for project performance assessment. The need exists to periodically revisit the justification and prioritization of technology development investments as changes occur over project life cycles. The framework informs management rapidly and comprehensively about diagnosed internal and external root causes of project performance.

  12. STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING IN THE MANAGEMENT OF PROJECTS, AIMED AT THE BIM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burneo Valarezo Servio

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Decision making in the management of projects aimed at Building Information Modeling, represents the main action to be developed during the development of the investment lifecycle, from inception to the development of life, decision marking is present in all phases of project management. In the Fund's shares of the production system by projects, decision making integrated from the priorities of the projects play an important role in the success of the company. The present work has as objective the development of a procedure for decision making during the life cycle of the project, the conditions for its implementation and the process for its development, with the purpose of raising their quality, to ensure decision making effective, consistent with the current development of the techniques of management.

  13. Toolbox for uncertainty; Introduction of adaptive heuristics as strategies for project decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stingl, Verena; Geraldi, Joana

    2017-01-01

    This article presents adaptive heuristics as an alternative approach to navigate uncertainty in project decision-making. Adaptive heuristic are a class of simple decision strategies that have received only scant attention in project studies. Yet, they can strive in contexts of high uncertainty...... they are ‘ecologically rational’. The model builds on the individual definitions of ecological rationality and organizes them according to two types of uncertainty (‘knowable’ and ‘unknowable’). Decision problems and heuristics are furthermore grouped by decision task (choice and judgement). The article discusses...... and limited information, which are the typical project decision context. This article develops a conceptual model that supports a systematic connection between adaptive heuristics and project decisions. Individual adaptive heuristics succeed only in specific decision environments, in which...

  14. System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mieg, Harald A.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

  15. PREMISES FOR A MODEL OF DECISIONMAKING ON THE FINANCING OF A PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popovici Ioana

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The classical theory of finance is based on the premises of rationality and maximizing profits that accompany economic decision-making. Complementarily, the modern theory of behavioral finance studies the effect of emotional and psychological factors of decision- maker on the choice of financing sources for economic activities. In opposition with the classical perspective, the contemporary theory of finance brings up to the stage various aspects of decision making, including elements of strategic behavior towards risk. All these contradictory elements are used as premises for modeling the decision making process of financing a project.

  16. Using knowledge for decision-making purposes in the context of large projects in The Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deelstra, Y.; Nooteboom, S.G.; Kohlmann, H.R.; Berg, J. van den; Innanen, S.

    2003-01-01

    Policy-related research in general, and impact assessments in particular, are too loosely connected to decision-making processes. The result is often sub-optimal or even undesirable, as one of two situations arises: (1) much research is done; however, those with the real power to make decisions do not make use of all of the resulting information, or (2) advocates of contrary opinions struggle with each other, using policy-related research as ammunition. To avoid these unwanted situations, the connection between the world of knowledge and the world of decision-making should be carefully constructed, by connecting the process of decision-making to the academic research and carefully developing research goals in response to the demands of decision-makers. By making these connections in a stepwise manner, knowledge may generate new insights and views for involved decision-makers and stakeholders, thus changing perceptions and problem definitions. In this way, these actors learn about the possibilities of several alternatives as well as each other's perceptions, and thus can make educated decisions leading to the most desirable and socially acceptable solution. The way this proposed method works is illustrated using two cases in The Netherlands: the project 'Mainport Rotterdam' (the enlargement of the port of Rotterdam), the project 'A fifth runway for Amsterdam Airport (Schiphol)'

  17. Differences in decision-making criteria towards the return on marketing investment: A project business perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Smyth, H.; Lecoeuvre, L.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the value of marketing to a business remains a thorny issue in theory and practice. Decision-making at the finance–marketing interface is under-researched, particularly for project businesses. Confronted by demands of accountability concerning the allocation of resources to meet competitive pressures, the paper examines the quality and extent of dialogue in investment decision-making. The return on investment (ROI) and marketing-specific investment (ROMI) are important factors at th...

  18. PRINCIPLE OF EFFECTIVE MAKING OF MUTUALLY ACCEPTABLE MULTI-PROJECTION DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Nikolaevna Lapaeva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The principle of effective making of mutually acceptable multi-projection decision in economics is set forth in the article. The principle envisages finding of effective variants by each stakeholder and result making by crossing of individual sets.

  19. The Native Comic Book Project: native youth making comics and healthy decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Michelle; Manuelito, Brenda; Nass, Carrie; Chock, Tami; Buchwald, Dedra

    2012-04-01

    American Indians and Alaska Natives have traditionally used stories and drawings to positively influence the well-being of their communities. The objective of this study was to describe the development of a curriculum that trains Native youth leaders to plan, write, and design original comic books to enhance healthy decision making. Project staff developed the Native Comic Book Project by adapting Dr. Michael Bitz's Comic Book Project to incorporate Native comic book art, Native storytelling, and decision-making skills. After conducting five train-the-trainer sessions for Native youth, staff were invited by youth participants to implement the full curriculum as a pilot test at one tribal community site in the Pacific Northwest. Implementation was accompanied by surveys and weekly participant observations and was followed by an interactive meeting to assess youth engagement, determine project acceptability, and solicit suggestions for curriculum changes. Six youths aged 12 to 15 (average age = 14) participated in the Native Comic Book Project. Youth participants stated that they liked the project and gained knowledge of the harmful effects of commercial tobacco use but wanted better integration of comic book creation, decision making, and Native storytelling themes. Previous health-related comic book projects did not recruit youth as active producers of content. This curriculum shows promise as a culturally appropriate intervention to help Native youth adopt healthy decision-making skills and healthy behaviors by creating their own comic books.

  20. Evaluation and selection of decision-making methods to assess landfill mining projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermann, Robert; Baumgartner, Rupert J; Vorbach, Stefan; Ragossnig, Arne; Pomberger, Roland

    2015-09-01

    For the first time in Austria, fundamental technological and economic studies on recovering secondary raw materials from large landfills have been carried out, based on the 'LAMIS - Landfill Mining Austria' pilot project. A main focus of the research - and the subject of this article - was to develop an assessment or decision-making procedure that allows landfill owners to thoroughly examine the feasibility of a landfill mining project in advance. Currently there are no standard procedures that would sufficiently cover all the multiple-criteria requirements. The basic structure of the multiple attribute decision making process was used to narrow down on selection, conceptual design and assessment of suitable procedures. Along with a breakdown into preliminary and main assessment, the entire foundation required was created, such as definitions of requirements to an assessment method, selection and accurate description of the various assessment criteria and classification of the target system for the present 'landfill mining' vs. 'retaining the landfill in after-care' decision-making problem. Based on these studies, cost-utility analysis and the analytical-hierarchy process were selected from the range of multiple attribute decision-making procedures and examined in detail. Overall, both methods have their pros and cons with regard to their use for assessing landfill mining projects. Merging these methods or connecting them with single-criteria decision-making methods (like the net present value method) may turn out to be reasonable and constitute an appropriate assessment method. © The Author(s) 2015.

  1. THE MAKING OF DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Yuji Tamura

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Quantum Electronics was a Brazilian startup in the 1990's that was acquired by an American equity fund in 2012. They are currently the largest manufacturer of vehicle tracking and infotainment systems. The company was founded by three college friends, who are currently executives at the company: Camilo Santos, Pedro Barbosa and Luana Correa. Edward Hutter was sent by the equity fund to take over the company’s finances, but is having trouble making organizational decisions with his colleagues. As a consultant, I was called to help them improve their decision making process and project prioritization. I adapted and deployed our firm's methodology, but, in the end, its adequacy is shown to be very much in question. The author of this case study intends to explore how actual organizational decisions rely on different decision models and their assumptions, .as well as demonstrate that a decision model is neither absolutely good nor bad as its quality is context dependent.

  2. ANFIS multi criteria decision making for overseas construction projects: a methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utama, W. P.; Chan, A. P. C.; Zulherman; Zahoor, H.; Gao, R.; Jumas, D. Y.

    2018-02-01

    A critical part when a company targeting a foreign market is how to make a better decision in connection with potential project selection. Since different attributes of information are often incomplete, imprecise and ill-defined in overseas projects selection, the process of decision making by relying on the experiences and intuition is a risky attitude. This paper aims to demonstrate a decision support method in deciding overseas construction projects (OCPs). An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), the amalgamation of Neural Network and Fuzzy Theory, was used as decision support tool to decide to go or not go on OCPs. Root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation (R) were employed to identify the ANFIS system indicating an optimum and efficient result. The optimum result was obtained from ANFIS network with two input membership functions, Gaussian membership function (gaussmf) and hybrid optimization method. The result shows that ANFIS may help the decision-making process for go/not go decision in OCPs.

  3. Hybrid Multicriteria Group Decision Making Method for Information System Project Selection Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Guo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Information system (IS project selection is of critical importance to every organization in dynamic competing environment. The aim of this paper is to develop a hybrid multicriteria group decision making approach based on intuitionistic fuzzy theory for IS project selection. The decision makers’ assessment information can be expressed in the form of real numbers, interval-valued numbers, linguistic variables, and intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs. All these evaluation pieces of information can be transformed to the form of IFNs. Intuitionistic fuzzy weighted averaging (IFWA operator is utilized to aggregate individual opinions of decision makers into a group opinion. Intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is used to obtain the entropy weights of the criteria. TOPSIS method combined with intuitionistic fuzzy set is proposed to select appropriate IS project in group decision making environment. Finally, a numerical example for information system projects selection is given to illustrate application of hybrid multi-criteria group decision making (MCGDM method based on intuitionistic fuzzy theory and TOPSIS method.

  4. Quantitative Decision Making Model for Carbon Reduction in Road Construction Projects Using Green Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woosik Jang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Numerous countries have established policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and have suggested goals pertaining to these reductions. To reach the target reduction amounts, studies on the reduction of carbon emissions have been conducted with regard to all stages and processes in construction projects. According to a study on carbon emissions, the carbon emissions generated during the construction stage of road projects account for approximately 76 to 86% of the total carbon emissions, far exceeding the other stages, such as maintenance or demolition. Therefore, this study aims to develop a quantitative decision making model that supports the application of green technologies (GTs to reduce carbon emissions during the construction stage of road construction projects. First, the authors selected environmental soundness, economic feasibility and constructability as the key assessment indices for evaluating 20 GTs. Second, a fuzzy set/qualitative comparative analysis (FS/QCA was used to establish an objective decision-making model for the assessment of both the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the key indices. To support the developed model, an expert survey was performed to assess the applicability of each GT from a practical perspective, which was verified with a case study using two additional GTs. The proposed model is expected to support practitioners in the application of suitable GTs to road projects and reduce carbon emissions, resulting in better decision making during road construction projects.

  5. Balancing risk in regulatory decision making: the Port Granby Project case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benitez, L.; Kleb, H.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to review the trade-offs that are routinely considered in regulatory decision making, and the policy basis and methods for making those trade-offs. Regulatory decisions under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA) and the Nuclear Safety and Control Act (NSCA) normally consider potential risks to the environment, human health and safety, if a project were to proceed. There is only limited consideration, under such circumstances, of the risks to the environment, human health and safety if the project were not to proceed. The focus is on the potential adverse effects of the project, except in the event of an emergency, where the focus shifts to the economic and other beneficial effects. The Port Granby long-term low-level radioactive waste management project is a project to clean up and provide appropriate local, long-term management of historic low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) in the Port Granby, Ontario area. Approximately 0.4 M m 3 of LLRW, presently located at the Port Granby Waste Management Facility, is to be transported to a newly constructed long-term waste management facility ~700 m north of the bluff face where the facility is located. Accordingly, the project is subject to environmental assessment and licensing processes under the CEAA and the NSCA, respectively. While the Port Granby Project does not represent an emergency situation, it does represent a situation that could result in a significant degree of environmental risk if the project were not to proceed. Over the course of the various studies that have been undertaken at the Waste Management Facility, it has become apparent that the facility is subject to erosion and gullying along the bluff face. The potential for the leaching of contaminants from the existing facility and the erosion of the Lake Ontario bluffs are recognized as ongoing risks that will continue and potentially worsen if the project does not proceed. The economic and other considerations that

  6. The Choice Project: Peer Workers Promoting Shared Decision Making at a Youth Mental Health Service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, Magenta Bender; Batchelor, Samantha; Dimopoulos-Bick, Tara; Howe, Deb

    2017-08-01

    In youth mental health services, consumer participation is essential, but few implementation strategies exist to engage young consumers. This project evaluated an intervention implemented in an Australian youth mental health service that utilized peer workers to promote shared decision making via an online tool. All new clients ages 16-25 were invited to participate in this nonrandomized comparative study, which used a historical comparison group (N=80). Intervention participants (N=149) engaged with a peer worker and used the online tool before and during their intake assessment. Pre- and postintake data were collected for both groups; measures included decisional conflict, perceived shared decision making, and satisfaction. A series of paired t tests, analyses of variance, and multiple regressions were conducted to assess differences in scores across intervention and comparison groups and pre- and postintake assessments. Ratings of perceived shared decision making with intake workers were higher in the intervention group than in the comparison group (p=.015). In both groups, decisional conflict scores were significantly lower after the intake assessment (pdecision making and lower decisional conflict were associated with satisfaction (pdecision making reported feeling more involved in their assessment. Feeling involved and having lower decisional conflict after seeing an intake worker were important for client satisfaction. These findings demonstrate the importance of both peer work and shared decision making for promoting optimal outcomes in youth mental health services.

  7. Decision making and senior management: the implementation of change projects covering clinical management in SUS hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacheco, José Márcio da Cunha; Gomes, Romeu

    2016-08-01

    This paper analyses the decision making process for senior management in public hospitals that are a part of the National Health Service in Brazil (hereafter SUS) in relation to projects aimed at changing clinical management. The methodological design of this study is qualitative in nature taking a hermeneutics-dialectics perspective in terms of results. Hospital directors noted that clinical management projects changed the state of hospitals through: improving their organizations, mobilizing their staff in order to increase a sense of order and systemizing actions and available resources. Technical rationality was the principal basis used in the decision making process for managers. Due to the reality of many hospitals having fragmented organizations, this fact impeded the use of aspects related to rationality, such as economic and financial factors in the decision making process. The incremental model and general politics also play a role in this area. We concluded that the decision making process embraces a large array of factors including rational aspects such as the use of management techniques and the ability to analyze, interpret and summarize. It also incorporates subjective elements such as how to select values and dealing with people's working experiences. We recognized that management problems are wide in scope, ambiguous, complex and do not come with a lot of structure in practice.

  8. Project Decision Chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rolstadås, Asbjørn; Pinto, Jeffrey K.; Falster, Peter

    2015-01-01

    To add value to project performance and help obtain project success, a new framework for decision making in projects is defined. It introduces the project decision chain inspired by the supply chain thinking in the manufacturing sector and uses three types of decisions: authorization, selection......, and plan decision. A primitive decision element is defined where all the three decision types can be accommodated. Each task in the primitive element can in itself contain subtasks that in turn will comprise new primitive elements. The primitive elements are nested together in a project decision chain....

  9. Renewable energy projects: structuring a multi-criteria group decision making framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haralambopoulos, D.A.; Polatiidis, H. [UnIversity of the Aegean, Mytilene (Greece). Dept. of Environmental Studies

    2003-05-01

    This paper describes an applicable group decision-making framework for assisting with multi-criteria analysis in renewable energy projects, utilizing the PROMETHEE II outranking method. The proposed framework is tested in a case study concerning the exploitation of a geothermal resource, located in the island of Chios, Greece. The presented structure provides a serial, decomposed agenda and enhances overall process transparency. Additional, innovatory elements are the incorporation of differing levels of resource exploitation within the decision framework and the direct determination of the PROMETHEE preference thresholds. The developed methodology provides a user-friendly approach, promotes the synergy between different actors, and could pave a way towards consensus. (Author)

  10. Adding value to the decision-making process of mega projects : Fostering strategic ambiguity, redundancy, and resilience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giezen, Mendel; Salet, Willem; Bertolini, Luca

    2015-01-01

    Current practice in decision-making about mega projects seems to be aimed at reducing complexity by simplification. However, this is often detrimental to the resilience and added value of these projects. This article uses the concept of strategic capacity for analyzing the decision-making process on

  11. Decision making and risk analysis during the development of wind energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanhaesebroeck, M.

    2004-11-01

    This study aims at determining a methodology or criteria which can be used as decision making tools for the development of wind power projects and for the objective profitability comparison between several projects. In the first part, the different steps of the development of a wind power project in France are described. For each step, the cost of the studies, the related approaches and the main risks of abandonment are precised. The potential time drifts in the planning of the project are identified on the basis of the experience feedback of the first years of wind power development in France. In the second part, the possibilities of using classical investment choice techniques are analyzed. The characteristics having more impact on the project profitability are identified. In the third part, the sequential models with increasing information are used to evaluate a project, whatever its level of development. Finally, a concrete case is considered to see how these models can be used as decision making tools during key steps of wind farms development. (J.S.)

  12. Ranking environmental projects model based on multicriteria decision-making and the weight sensitivity analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    With the fast growth of Chinese economic,more and more capital will be invested in environmental projects.How to select the environmental investment projects(alternatives)for obtaining the best environmental quality and economic benefits is an important problem for the decision makers.The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision-making model to rank a finite number of alternatives with several and sometimes conflicting criteria.A model for ranking the projects of municipal sewage treatment plants is proposed by using exports' information and the data of the real projects.And,the ranking result is given based on the PROMETHEE method. Furthermore,by means of the concept of the weight stability intervals(WSI),the sensitivity of the ranking results to the size of criteria values and the change of weights value of criteria are discussed.The result shows that some criteria,such as"proportion of benefit to projoct cost",will influence the ranking result of alternatives very strong while others not.The influence are not only from the value of criterion but also from the changing the weight of criterion.So,some criteria such as"proportion of benefit to projoct cost" are key critera for ranking the projects. Decision makers must be cautious to them.

  13. Collaborative decision-making on wind power projects based on AHP method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badea, A.; Proştean, G.; Tămăşilă, M.; Vârtosu, A.

    2017-01-01

    The complexity of projects implementation in Renewable Energy Sources (RES) requires finding collaborative alliances between suppliers and project developers in RES. Links activities in supply chain in RES, respectively, transportation of heavy components, processing orders to purchase quality raw materials, storage and materials handling, packaging, and other complex activities requiring a logistics system collaboratively to be permanently dimensioned properly selected and monitored. Requirements imposed by stringency of wind power energy projects implementation inevitably involves constraints in infrastructure, implementation and logistics. Thus, following an extensive research in RES project, to eliminate these constraints were identified alternative collaboration to provide feasible solutions on different levels of performance. The paper presents a critical analysis of different collaboration alternatives in supply chain for RES projects, selecting the ones most suitable for particular situations by using decision-making method Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The role of AHP method was to formulate a decision model by which can be establish the collaboration alternative choice through mathematical calculation to reduce the impact created by constraints encountered. The solution provided through AHP provides a framework for detecting optimal alternative collaboration between suppliers and project developers in RES and avoids some breaks in the chain by resizing safety buffers for leveling orders in RES projects.

  14. Decision-making in the Pre-design Stage of Sustainable Building Renovation Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gade, Anne Nørkjær; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Larsen, Tine Steen

    2017-01-01

    There is a great potential in renovating our existing building stock, in terms of improving environmental, economic and social qualities. Meeting the increasing performance requirements for sustainable construction entails an increasing level of complexity in the design process of both new...... buildings and renovation projects. Decision support tools are one solution that can help the building owner manage this complexity. This study investigates the current decision-making processes among Danish professional building owners, in order to propose a conceptual framework for future decision support...... tools for sustainable renovation. Design Science Research Methodology has been used as the main methodological framework. Current practices for setting goals for sustainability, determining the current state of the buildings and prioritizing which buildings to renovate within a building portfolio, have...

  15. Study on optimized decision-making model of offshore wind power projects investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Tian; Yang, Shangdong; Gao, Guowei; Ma, Li

    2018-02-01

    China’s offshore wind energy is of great potential and plays an important role in promoting China’s energy structure adjustment. However, the current development of offshore wind power in China is inadequate, and is much less developed than that of onshore wind power. On the basis of considering all kinds of risks faced by offshore wind power development, an optimized model of offshore wind power investment decision is established in this paper by proposing the risk-benefit assessment method. To prove the practicability of this method in improving the selection of wind power projects, python programming is used to simulate the investment analysis of a large number of projects. Therefore, the paper is dedicated to provide decision-making support for the sound development of offshore wind power industry.

  16. Modeling and Simulation for Enterprise Decision-Making: Successful Projects and Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramadan, Noha; Ajami, Racha; Mohamed, Nader

    2015-01-01

    Decision-making in enterprises holds different possibilities for profits and risks. Due to the complexity of decision making processes, modeling and simulation tools are being used to facilitate them and minimize the risk of making wrong decisions in the various business process phases. In this p...

  17. Shared decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000877.htm Shared decision making To use the sharing features on this page, ... treatment you both support. When to use Shared Decision Making Shared decision making is often used when you ...

  18. Firm Readiness Level for Innovation Projects: A New Decision-Making Tool for Innovation Managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Galvez

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Innovation projects represent a major challenge for business managers due to their associated uncertainty degree. The already existing methodologies to support the innovation projects are aimed at piloting them and establishing the management stages in a flexible and agile way during their deployment. This paper proposes a complementary ex-ante methodology that seeks to aid the decision-making of companies to choose whether or not to launch a potential innovation project. This methodology evaluates to what extent the technological system of the company has the minimum required maturity degree of competencies to successfully achieve the innovation project. Thus, in first instance, an innovation project is characterized according to its novelty degree; both inside the company and in its environment. Subsequently, according to the previous characterization, the future project will have an impact on the technological system of the company. The capabilities of the firm are represented by a set of good practices associated with the innovation projects’ management that the company is able to deploy. Finally, the minimum maturity degree required by a particular project of these practices is determined. Then, the gap between the maturity requirement profile and the current profile of the company is established enabling to decide on the implementation of the project or not.

  19. Mastering data-intensive collaboration and decision making research and practical applications in the dicode project

    CERN Document Server

    2014-01-01

    This book reports on cutting-edge research carried out within the context of the EU-funded Dicode project, which aims at facilitating and augmenting collaboration and decision making in data-intensive and cognitively complex settings. Whenever appropriate, Dicode builds on prominent high-performance computing paradigms and large data processing technologies to meaningfully search, analyze, and aggregate data from diverse, extremely large, and rapidly evolving sources. The Dicode approach and services are fully explained, and particular emphasis is placed on deepening insights regarding the exploitation of big data, as well as on collaboration and issues relating to sense-making support. Building on current advances, the solution developed in the Dicode project brings together the reasoning capabilities of both the machine and humans. It can be viewed as an innovative “workbench” incorporating and orchestrating a set of interoperable services that reduce the data intensiveness and complexity overload at cr...

  20. Sequential Probability Ratio Testing with Power Projective Base Method Improves Decision-Making for BCI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Rong

    2017-01-01

    Obtaining a fast and reliable decision is an important issue in brain-computer interfaces (BCI), particularly in practical real-time applications such as wheelchair or neuroprosthetic control. In this study, the EEG signals were firstly analyzed with a power projective base method. Then we were applied a decision-making model, the sequential probability ratio testing (SPRT), for single-trial classification of motor imagery movement events. The unique strength of this proposed classification method lies in its accumulative process, which increases the discriminative power as more and more evidence is observed over time. The properties of the method were illustrated on thirteen subjects' recordings from three datasets. Results showed that our proposed power projective method outperformed two benchmark methods for every subject. Moreover, with sequential classifier, the accuracies across subjects were significantly higher than that with nonsequential ones. The average maximum accuracy of the SPRT method was 84.1%, as compared with 82.3% accuracy for the sequential Bayesian (SB) method. The proposed SPRT method provides an explicit relationship between stopping time, thresholds, and error, which is important for balancing the time-accuracy trade-off. These results suggest SPRT would be useful in speeding up decision-making while trading off errors in BCI. PMID:29348781

  1. Errors, lies and misunderstandings: Systematic review on behavioural decision making in projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stingl, Verena; Geraldi, Joana

    2017-01-01

    limitations—errors), pluralist (on political behaviour—lies), and contextualist (on social and organizational sensemaking—misunderstandings). Our review suggests avenues for future research with a wider coverage of theories in cognitive and social psychology and critical and mindful integration of findings...... in projects and beyond. However, the literature is fragmented and draws only on a fraction of the recent, insightful, and relevant developments on behavioural decision making. This paper organizes current research in a conceptual framework rooted in three schools of thinking—reductionist (on cognitive...

  2. A model for selecting project team members using multicriteria group decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana Hazin Alencar

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Selecting a project team is a complex multi-criteria decision-making problem. For this reason, one appropriate way to tackle such problems involves the use of multi-criteria decision aid methods. However, most of the decisions taken regarding the selection of project teams are made by a group of people. It is this which changes the focus of the problem by moving from one decision-maker (DM to a group of DMs. Analysis needs to be extended in order to consider the preference structure of each individual group member. In this paper, we present a group decision model for project team selection based on a multi-criteria evaluation of the preferences of a client's representatives. It could be applied to any decision problem since it involves a group of decision makers whose preferences diverge little. An application of the model in order to select consultants for a construction project is presented.A seleção da equipe em um projeto é um problema de decisão multicritério. Uma forma apropriada de tratar tais problemas envolve o uso de métodos de apoio multicritério a decisão. Grande parte desses problemas envolve um grupo de decisores. Dessa forma, há uma mudança no foco da decisão de um decisor para um grupo de decisores. A análise deve ser ampliada no intuito de considerar a estrutura de preferência de cada membro do grupo. Nesse artigo, apresentamos um modelo aplicado à seleção de equipe de um projeto baseado na avaliação multicritério das preferências dos representantes do cliente do projeto. Pode ser aplicado a qualquer problema de decisão desde que envolva um grupo de decisores que tenham pequena divergência em relação às suas preferências. Uma aplicação para seleção de parte da equipe de um projeto de construção é apresentada.

  3. Decision Making and Cancer

    OpenAIRE

    Reyna, Valerie F.; Nelson, Wendy L.; Han, Paul K.; Pignone, Michael P.

    2015-01-01

    We review decision-making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making, in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cogni...

  4. Decision-making for supplying energy projects: A four-dimensional model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith Stegen, Karen; Palovic, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Extant pipeline evaluation models offer insufficient supplier analysis tools. • We offer a four-dimensional decision-making tool to augment extant models. • Model employs four filters to help decision makers eliminate unsuitable suppliers. • Aids in prioritization of best courses of action for overcoming obstacles. • Case study of Nabucco pipeline shows Azerbaijan would have been best supply option. - Abstract: Importing states and regions employ myriad strategies to enhance energy security, from stockpiling to diversification to efficiency programs. As has occurred in recent years, importers can seek diversification by initiating pipeline and liquefied natural gas projects, meaning they may also have to select suppliers. However, most extant pipeline evaluation models erroneously assume suppliers are known and thus neglect supplier selection. We propose a decision-making tool to augment these older models: a systematic and replicable four-dimensional model to help policymakers and managers identify suitable suppliers and prioritize the best courses of action for overcoming obstacles. The first three dimensions—timeframe, supply availability and infrastructure constraints—filter out unsuitable suppliers. The fourth dimension then assesses the political, geopolitical and commercial stability of the remaining candidates. To demonstrate the model in practice, we assess the original Nabucco pipeline proposal, which was designed to transport gas from the Caspian and Middle East regions to Europe

  5. Medical decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stiggelbout, A.M.; Vries, M. de; Scherer, L.; Keren, G.; Wu, G.

    2016-01-01

    This chapter presents an overview of the field of medical decision making. It distinguishes the levels of decision making seen in health-care practice and shows how research in judgment and decision making support or improve decision making. Most of the research has been done at the micro level,

  6. NRG Oncology/National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project Decision-Making Project-1 Results: Decision Making in Breast Cancer Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmberg, Christine; Bandos, Hanna; Fagerlin, Angela; Bevers, Therese B; Battaglia, Tracy A; Wickerham, D Lawrence; McCaskill-Stevens, Worta J

    2017-11-01

    Selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs) reduce breast cancer risk. Adoption of SERMs as prevention medication remains low. This is the first study to quantify social, cultural, and psychologic factors driving decision making regarding SERM use in women counseled on breast cancer prevention options. A survey study was conducted with women counseled by a health care provider (HCP) about SERMs. A statistical comparison of responses was performed between those who decided to use and those who decided not to use SERMs. Independent factors associated with the decision were determined using logistic regression. Of 1,023 participants, 726 made a decision: 324 (44.6%) decided to take a SERM and 402 (55.4%) decided not to. The most important factor for deciding on SERM use was the HCP recommendation. Other characteristics associated with the decision included attitudes and perceptions regarding medication intake, breast cancer worry, trust in HCP, family members with blood clots, and others' experiences with SERMs. The odds of SERM intake when HCP recommended were higher for participants with a positive attitude toward taking medications than for those with a negative attitude ( P interaction = 0.01). This study highlights the importance of social and cultural aspects for SERM decision making, most importantly personal beliefs and experiences. HCPs' recommendations play a statistically significant role in decision making and are more likely to be followed if in line with patients' attitudes. Results indicate the need for developing interventions for HCPs that not only focus on the presentation of medical information but, equally as important, on addressing patients' beliefs and experiences. Cancer Prev Res; 10(11); 625-34. ©2017 AACR See related editorial by Crew, p. 609 . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

  7. Linking Effective Project Management to Business Strategy in Oil and Gas Industry through Decision-making Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeleke, Adeyinka

    The construction project in the oil and gas industry covers the entire spectrum of hydrocarbon production from the wellhead (upstream) to downstream facilities. In each of these establishments, the activities in a construction project include: consulting, studies, front-end engineering, detail engineering, procurement, program management, construction, installation, commissioning and start-up. Efficient management of each of the activities involved in construction projects is one of the driving forces for the successful completion of the project. Optimizing the crucial factors in project management during each phase of a project in an oil and gas industry can assist managers to maximize the use of available resources and drive the project to successful conclusions. One of these factors is the decision-making process in the construction project. Current research effort investigated the relationship between decision-making processes and business strategy in oil and gas industry using employee surveys. I recruited employees of different races, age group, genders, and years of experience in order understand their influence on the implementation of the decision-making process in oil and gas industry through a quantitative survey. Decision-making was assessed using five decision measures: (a) rational, (b) intuitive, (c) dependent, (d) avoidant, and (e) spontaneous. The findings indicated gender, age, years of work experience and job titles as primary variables with a negative relationship with decision-making approach for employees working in a major oil and gas industry. The study results revealed that the two most likely decision-making methods in oil and gas industry include: making a decision in a logical and systematic way and seek assistance from others when making a decision. Additionally, the two leading management approaches to decision-making in the oil and gas industry include: decision analysis is part of organization culture and management is committed to

  8. [Decision making in cariology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdonschot, E.H.A.M.; Liem, S.L.; Palenstein Helderman, W.H. van

    2003-01-01

    By conducting an oral examination, during radiographic examination and in treatment planning procedures dentists make numerous decisions. A dentist will be required to make his decisions explicit. Decision trees and decision analyses may play an important role. In a decision analysis, the

  9. PREMISES FOR A MODEL OF DECISIONMAKING ON THE FINANCING OF A PROJECT

    OpenAIRE

    Popovici Ioana; Tulai Constantin

    2010-01-01

    The classical theory of finance is based on the premises of rationality and maximizing profits that accompany economic decision-making. Complementarily, the modern theory of behavioral finance studies the effect of emotional and psychological factors of decision- maker on the choice of financing sources for economic activities. In opposition with the classical perspective, the contemporary theory of finance brings up to the stage various aspects of decision making, including elements of strat...

  10. Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions

  11. Categorization = Decision Making + Generalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seger, Carol A; Peterson, Erik J.

    2013-01-01

    We rarely, if ever, repeatedly encounter exactly the same situation. This makes generalization crucial for real world decision making. We argue that categorization, the study of generalizable representations, is a type of decision making, and that categorization learning research would benefit from approaches developed to study the neuroscience of decision making. Similarly, methods developed to examine generalization and learning within the field of categorization may enhance decision making research. We first discuss perceptual information processing and integration, with an emphasis on accumulator models. We then examine learning the value of different decision making choices via experience, emphasizing reinforcement learning modeling approaches. Next we discuss how value is combined with other factors in decision making, emphasizing the effects of uncertainty. Finally, we describe how a final decision is selected via thresholding processes implemented by the basal ganglia and related regions. We also consider how memory related functions in the hippocampus may be integrated with decision making mechanisms and contribute to categorization. PMID:23548891

  12. Modelling financial risk in open pit mine projects: Implications for strategic decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Abdel Sabour, S.A.; Wood, G.

    2009-01-01

    Strategic decisions in the mining industry are made under multiple technical and market uncertainties. Therefore, to reach the best possible decision, based on information available, it is necessary to integrate uncertainty about the input variables and model financial risk of the project's merit measures. However, this rovides few useful insights to decision-makers unless accompanied by modeling management responses to uncertainty resolutions. It is widely acknowledged that conventional deci...

  13. Decision making in inter‐corporate projects : A qualitative and quantitative study of project workers in automobile research and pre‐ development projects in Japan and Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Markkula, Petter

    2009-01-01

    This thesis is dealing with the integration of Japanese and German project workers in automobile inter‐corporate research/pre‐development projects. The focus is on better understanding the respective decision making process. As cultural differences play a big role in the way that people behave an extra focus was put on investigating this. The methods chosen for this study were quantitative research in the form of a questionnaire and qualitative research in the form of an interview series. For...

  14. Teachers' Grading Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isnawati, Ida; Saukah, Ali

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated teachers' grading decision making, focusing on their beliefs underlying their grading decision making, their grading practices and assessment types, and factors they considered in grading decision making. Two teachers from two junior high schools applying different curriculum policies in grade reporting in Indonesian…

  15. The Value of Modern Decision-Making Support Services to Fusion Projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pascal, C.

    2006-01-01

    facilities (JHR Jules Horowitz experimental Reactor, Laser Megajoule plant, dedicated to simulation) and in rightly different domains, such as airplane construction (Airbus A380 final assembly line). The full paper and the associated presentation will focus on decision making support services in the following domains: risks management, performances management, interfaces ( as well physical as functional interfaces) and integration management. The contribution of CAD and TDMS ( technical data management system) will be discussed. (author)

  16. The value of modern decision-making support services to fusion projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pascal, Claude; Blanchet, Christian; Ollivier, Jean-Marc

    2007-01-01

    Regardless of the power generation process, whether fission or fusion, a nuclear power plant (NPP) is a complex system of thousands of components and equipment. It is also subject to stringent requirements in terms of safety, environmental impacts, schedule and cost-competitiveness. Operating experience from test and propulsion reactors recently designed and built by AREVA TA - more than 10 reactors with 4 different designs in the past 12 years - and from NPPs recently built in Asia and the AREVA NP EPR under construction at the Okiluoto site in Finland highlight the added value of the latest engineering methods. These methods meet project management standards issued in the past five years and are based on a global approach and continuous improvement of the process. They significantly minimize risk for the customer, the public and the environment. The scientific and technical complexities are significantly higher in the case of a new fusion power plant project. There is very little operating experience from previous scientific machine projects, especially in the fields of nuclear facility integration, nuclear safety culture, human factors, integrated logistics support, nuclear operations and decommissioning requirements to be factored in at the design and construction stages. Examples are provided from AREVA group experience to show the versatility of the engineering approach and present some successful adaptations of these methods in a variety of technical fields with varying levels of engineering responsibility. This paper focus on decision-making support services in the following areas: performance management, interface management (including physical as well as functional interfaces) and integration management. The contribution of CAD and PDM (Product Data Management) is discussed. This paper describes how the fusion community can benefit from the best engineering practices of nuclear companies

  17. Mapping data through concept maps: an auxiliary tool for decision making regarding institutional projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D’Avila, Adriana L.

    2017-01-01

    This paper reports a data mapping construction aimed to subsidize the decision making process regarding institutional projects, at different levels of responsibility, at the Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear. The conception models a systemic and adaptive tool which is based on the concept mapping theory developed by Novak. The Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN) is a research center of the Comissão de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), an autarchy attached to Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações e Comunicações. The main focus of IEN is research and development of nuclear science and technology. The developed tool creates a more effective and accessible way of sharing information. However, beyond project data integration into a specific instrument, it also has the intent to compensate the consequences of the continued reduction of the number of workers at IEN over recent years. The recent CNEN management report, published in 2016, showed the problematic situation caused by the loss of workers, stressing the high number of pensions granted and to be granted in the near future. The loss of labor force, besides exposing the urgent need for optimizing knowledge management efforts, also sheds light into another problem: the need for grouping responsibilities among the remaining workers. In this respect, the tool developed helps to face this challenge, enhancing autonomy at different levels but preserving the institutional guidelines. To conclude the report, and in order to exemplify the method, the paper also describes the map construction relative an innovative project proposal in a joint development towards the nuclear area. (author)

  18. Mapping data through concept maps: an auxiliary tool for decision making regarding institutional projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D’Avila, Adriana L., E-mail: adriana@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Divisão de Engenharia Nuclear

    2017-11-01

    This paper reports a data mapping construction aimed to subsidize the decision making process regarding institutional projects, at different levels of responsibility, at the Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear. The conception models a systemic and adaptive tool which is based on the concept mapping theory developed by Novak. The Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN) is a research center of the Comissão de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), an autarchy attached to Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações e Comunicações. The main focus of IEN is research and development of nuclear science and technology. The developed tool creates a more effective and accessible way of sharing information. However, beyond project data integration into a specific instrument, it also has the intent to compensate the consequences of the continued reduction of the number of workers at IEN over recent years. The recent CNEN management report, published in 2016, showed the problematic situation caused by the loss of workers, stressing the high number of pensions granted and to be granted in the near future. The loss of labor force, besides exposing the urgent need for optimizing knowledge management efforts, also sheds light into another problem: the need for grouping responsibilities among the remaining workers. In this respect, the tool developed helps to face this challenge, enhancing autonomy at different levels but preserving the institutional guidelines. To conclude the report, and in order to exemplify the method, the paper also describes the map construction relative an innovative project proposal in a joint development towards the nuclear area. (author)

  19. Business making decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Benjamín Franklin Fincowsky

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available People and organizations make better or get wrong as consequence of making decisions. Sometimes making decisions is just a trial and error process. Some others, decisions are good and the results profitable with a few of mistakes, most of the time because it’s considered the experience and the control of a specific field or the good intention of who makes them. Actually, all kinds of decisions bring learning. What is important is the intention, the attitude and the values considered in this process. People from different scenes face many facts and circumstances—almost always out of control—that affect the making decisions process. There is not a unique way to make decisions for all companies in many settings. The person who makes a decision should identify the problem, to solve it later using alternatives and solutions. Even though, follow all the steps it’s not easy as it seems. Looking back the conditions related to the decisions, we can mention the followings: uncertainty, risk and certainty. When people identify circumstances and facts, as well as its effects in a possible situation, they will make decisions with certainty. As long as the information decreases and it becomes ambiguous the risk becomes an important factor in the making decisions process because they are connected to probable objectives (clear or subjective (opinion judgment or intuition. To finish, uncertainty, involves people that make a decision with no or little information about circumstances or criteria with basis

  20. Intuitionistic Trapezoidal Fuzzy Group Decision-Making Based on Prospect Choquet Integral Operator and Grey Projection Pursuit Dynamic Cluster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahang Yuan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In consideration of the interaction among attributes and the influence of decision makers’ risk attitude, this paper proposes an intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy aggregation operator based on Choquet integral and prospect theory. With respect to a multiattribute group decision-making problem, the prospect value functions of intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are aggregated by the proposed operator; then a grey relation-projection pursuit dynamic cluster method is developed to obtain the ranking of alternatives; the firefly algorithm is used to optimize the objective function of projection for obtaining the best projection direction of grey correlation projection values, and the grey correlation projection values are evaluated, which are applied to classify, rank, and prefer the alternatives. Finally, an illustrative example is taken in the present study to make the proposed method comprehensible.

  1. Consumer decision-making with regard to organic food products: Results from the CONDOR project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, John

    Based on a survey in eight European countries, a model of consumer decision making and behaviour with regard to organic food is presented as well as comparative results. It is found that the reasons given and the reasoning behind choosing organic products are quite similar across countries...

  2. THE FEATURES OF THE PROCEDURE FOR MAKING THE DECISION ON THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PROJECTS THE PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Vorobiova

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The procedure for making a decision on the implementation of public-private partnership, which has developed in Ukraine was examined in the article. Three consecutive stages of preparation for the implementation of projects of partnership between the state and business were сomprehensively considered. The main disadvantages of each stage were determined and suggestions for their improvement were given.

  3. The Sweet-Home project: audio processing and decision making in smart home to improve well-being and reliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacher, Michel; Chahuara, Pedro; Lecouteux, Benjamin; Istrate, Dan; Portet, Francois; Joubert, Thierry; Sehili, Mohamed; Meillon, Brigitte; Bonnefond, Nicolas; Fabre, Sébastien; Roux, Camille; Caffiau, Sybille

    2013-01-01

    The Sweet-Home project aims at providing audio-based interaction technology that lets the user have full control over their home environment, at detecting distress situations and at easing the social inclusion of the elderly and frail population. This paper presents an overview of the project focusing on the implemented techniques for speech and sound recognition as context-aware decision making with uncertainty. A user experiment in a smart home demonstrates the interest of this audio-based technology.

  4. Variation in decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dall, Sasha R. X.; Gosling, Samuel; Gordon D.A., Brown,; Dingemanse, Niels; Ido, Erev,; Martin, Kocher,; Laura, Schulz,; Todd, Peter M; Weissing, Franz; Wolf, Max; Hammerstein, Peter; Stevens, Jeffrey R.

    2012-01-01

    Variation in how organisms allocate their behavior over their lifetimes is key to determining Darwinian fitness., and thus the evolution of human and nonhuman decision making. This chapter explores how decision making varies across biologically and societally significant scales and what role such

  5. Culinary Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Rob

    1987-01-01

    Advises directors of ways to include day care workers in the decision-making process. Enumerates benefits of using staff to help focus and direct changes in the day care center and discusses possible pitfalls in implementation of a collective decision-making approach to management. (NH)

  6. Organizational decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis develops a heuristic approach to organizational decision-making by synthesizing the classical, neo-classical and contingency approaches to organization theory. The conceptual framework developed also integrates the rational and cybernetic approaches with cognitive processes underlying the decision-making process. The components of the approach address the role of environment in organizational decision-maki...

  7. Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundzewicz, Z. W.; Krysanova, V.; Dankers, R.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.; Hattermann, F. F.; Huang, S.; Milly, Paul C.D.; Stoffel, M.; Driessen, P.P.J.; Matczak, P.; Quevauviller, P.; Schellnhuber, H.-J.

    2017-01-01

    This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk reduction, and climate change adaptation at regional to local scales. Because it is naïve to expect availability of trustworthy quantitative projections of future flood hazard, in order to reduce flood risk one should focus attention on mapping of current and future risks and vulnerability hotspots and improve the situation there. Although an intercomparison of flood hazard projections is done in this paper and differences are identified and interpreted, it does not seems possible to recommend which large-scale studies may be considered most credible in particular areas of Europe.

  8. Decision making and cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F; Nelson, Wendy L; Han, Paul K; Pignone, Michael P

    2015-01-01

    We review decision making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cognition, emotion, and their interaction are described, including classical psychophysical approaches, dual-process approaches that focus on conflicts between emotion versus cognition (or reason), and modern integrative approaches such as fuzzy-trace theory. In contrast to the earlier emphasis on rote use of numerical detail, modern approaches emphasize understanding the bottom-line gist of options (which encompasses emotion and other influences on meaning) and retrieving relevant social and moral values to apply to those gist representations. Finally, research on interventions to support better decision making in clinical settings is reviewed, drawing out implications for future research on decision making and cancer. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  9. Decision Making in Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

  10. Rough multiple objective decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Jiuping

    2011-01-01

    Rough Set TheoryBasic concepts and properties of rough sets Rough Membership Rough Intervals Rough FunctionApplications of Rough SetsMultiple Objective Rough Decision Making Reverse Logistics Problem with Rough Interval Parameters MODM based Rough Approximation for Feasible RegionEVRMCCRMDCRM Reverse Logistics Network Design Problem of Suji Renewable Resource MarketBilevel Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Hierarchical Supply Chain Planning Problem with Rough Interval Parameters Bilevel Decision Making ModelBL-EVRM BL-CCRMBL-DCRMApplication to Supply Chain Planning of Mianyang Co., LtdStochastic Multiple Objective Rough Decision Multi-Objective Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling UnderRough Random EnvironmentRandom Variable Stochastic EVRM Stochastic CCRM Stochastic DCRM Multi-Objective rc-PSP/mM/Ro-Ra for Longtan Hydropower StationFuzzy Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Allocation Problem under Fuzzy Environment Fuzzy Variable Fu-EVRM Fu-CCRM Fu-DCRM Earth-Rock Work Allocation Problem.

  11. Ethical decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Zsolnai, László

    2011-01-01

    The self-centeredness of modern organizations leads to environmental destruction and human deprivation. The principle of responsibility developed by Hans Jonas requires caring for the beings affected by our decisions and actions. Ethical decision-making creates a synthesis of reverence for ethical norms, rationality in goal achievement, and respect for the stakeholders. The maximin rule selects the "least worst alternative" in the multidimensional decision space of deontologica...

  12. Handbook on Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Lakhmi C

    2010-01-01

    The present "Volume 1: Techniques and Applications" of the "Handbook on Decision Making" presents a useful collection of AI techniques, as well as other complementary methodologies, that are useful for the design and development of intelligent decision support systems. Application examples of how these intelligent decision support systems can be utilized to help tackle a variety of real-world problems in different domains, such as business, management, manufacturing, transportation and food industries, and biomedicine, are presented. The handbook includes twenty condensed c

  13. Strategic decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van

    2000-01-01

    This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision

  14. Repeated Causal Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Bjorn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in…

  15. Designing for Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonassen, David H.

    2012-01-01

    Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…

  16. Bidding Strategy to Support Decision-Making Based on Comprehensive Information in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ru Liang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a unified method to support contractor for bidding selection in construction projects. A cross-functional contractor with 28 candidate units distributed in the three departments (construction units, design units, and suppliers is used as an example. This problem is first formulated as a 0-1 quadratic programming problem through optimizing individual performance and collaborative performance of the candidate units based on individual information and collaborative information. Then, a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm is designed to solve this problem and a bidding selection problem for a major bridge project is used to demonstrate our proposed method. The results show that the decision-maker (DM obtains a better contractor if he pays more attention to collaborative performance.

  17. Methodological fragments for the planning and decision making related to library utomation projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanda Maria Maia da Rocha Paranhos

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Library automation processes depend in part in taking decisions on aspects of information and communications technologies (ICTs such as operational software, application software, data base management systems, hardware and communication network. The process depend also on decisions taken on Library Science aspects, specially in relation to the creation and management of bibliographic data which support services provision, such as the funcionalities included in applications software and how software implement desirable standards. The more important standards are AACR2, MARC/XML, ISO2709 and z39.50 communication protocol. Commitment to those standards tend to impact favorably on projects final costs. The cost of construction bibliographic data base may be the more expensive element item in the whole project; that can be minimized with use of cited standards and free bibliographic information available in Internet. The bigger the library holding, the more expressive the economy on this item with this methodology, which allows for full observation of local guidelines for the database construction. A synthetic list of the variety of product solutions available in Brazil is presented appended to the article, as well as an example of a basic request list of items to observe or evaluate in integrated library systems.

  18. Emotion and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Jennifer S; Li, Ye; Valdesolo, Piercarlo; Kassam, Karim S

    2015-01-03

    A revolution in the science of emotion has emerged in recent decades, with the potential to create a paradigm shift in decision theories. The research reveals that emotions constitute potent, pervasive, predictable, sometimes harmful and sometimes beneficial drivers of decision making. Across different domains, important regularities appear in the mechanisms through which emotions influence judgments and choices. We organize and analyze what has been learned from the past 35 years of work on emotion and decision making. In so doing, we propose the emotion-imbued choice model, which accounts for inputs from traditional rational choice theory and from newer emotion research, synthesizing scientific models.

  19. Multi-criteria decision-making in the selection of a renewable energy project in spain: The Vikor method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Cristobal, J.R.

    2011-01-01

    One of the characteristics of the Spanish energy system is its high degree of dependence on imports. In 2005, the Spanish government approved the new Renewable Energy Plan in the following sectors: Windpower, Hydroelectric, Solar Thermal, Solar Thermo-electric, Photovoltaic, Biomass, Biogas and Biofuels. The aim of the Plan is to make it possible to reach the target of 12% of primary energy being met from renewable sources by 2010. When selecting one from various Renewable Energy investment projects different groups of decision-makers become involved in the process. Decision-making has to take into consideration several conflicting objectives because of the increasingly complex social, economic, technological, and environmental factors that are present. Traditional single-criterion decision-making is no longer able to handle these problems. The Compromise Ranking method, also known as the VIKOR method, introduces the Multi-criteria ranking index based on the particular measure of ''closeness'' to the ''ideal'' solution. In this paper, we apply the method in the selection of a Renewable Energy project corresponding to the Renewable Energy Plan launched by the Spanish Government. The method is combined with the Analytical Hierarchy Process method for weighting the importance of the different criteria, which allows decision-makers to assign these values based on their preferences. The results show that the Biomass plant option (Co-combustion in a conventional power plant) is the best choice, followed by the Wind power and Solar Thermo-electric alternatives. (author)

  20. Judgment and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellers, B A; Schwartz, A; Cooke, A D

    1998-01-01

    For many decades, research in judgment and decision making has examined behavioral violations of rational choice theory. In that framework, rationality is expressed as a single correct decision shared by experimenters and subjects that satisfies internal coherence within a set of preferences and beliefs. Outside of psychology, social scientists are now debating the need to modify rational choice theory with behavioral assumptions. Within psychology, researchers are debating assumptions about errors for many different definitions of rationality. Alternative frameworks are being proposed. These frameworks view decisions as more reasonable and adaptive that previously thought. For example, "rule following." Rule following, which occurs when a rule or norm is applied to a situation, often minimizes effort and provides satisfying solutions that are "good enough," though not necessarily the best. When rules are ambiguous, people look for reasons to guide their decisions. They may also let their emotions take charge. This chapter presents recent research on judgment and decision making from traditional and alternative frameworks.

  1. Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    2012-01-01

    of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...... applicable): The Model is based on case studies, but the limited scope of the length of the paper did not leave room to show the empirical evidence, but only the theoretical study. Originality / value of a paper: The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decision-making processes...... by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses...

  2. Judgment and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischhoff, Baruch

    2010-09-01

    The study of judgment and decision making entails three interrelated forms of research: (1) normative analysis, identifying the best courses of action, given decision makers' values; (2) descriptive studies, examining actual behavior in terms comparable to the normative analyses; and (3) prescriptive interventions, helping individuals to make better choices, bridging the gap between the normative ideal and the descriptive reality. The research is grounded in analytical foundations shared by economics, psychology, philosophy, and management science. Those foundations provide a framework for accommodating affective and social factors that shape and complement the cognitive processes of decision making. The decision sciences have grown through applications requiring collaboration with subject matter experts, familiar with the substance of the choices and the opportunities for interventions. Over the past half century, the field has shifted its emphasis from predicting choices, which can be successful without theoretical insight, to understanding the processes shaping them. Those processes are often revealed through biases that suggest non-normative processes. The practical importance of these biases depends on the sensitivity of specific decisions and the support that individuals have in making them. As a result, the field offers no simple summary of individuals' competence as decision makers, but a suite of theories and methods suited to capturing these sensitivities. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Repeated causal decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. Strategic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van

    2000-01-01

    This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision setting,consisting of a list of stakeholders with their capabilities, positions, and salience on each of the issues; (3) computer simulation. The computer simulation models incorporate only the main processe...

  5. Crisis decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holsti, O.R.

    1989-01-01

    This article presents evidence that the potential loss of control of events by officials who must operate under conditions that generate substantial stress is one of the central problems of crisis decision making. Examples of U.S. crises management and alliance management are reviewed, and possible tools for improving crisis management decisions are discussed. This article particularly focuses on crises which may lead to nuclear war

  6. Uncertainties in hydrological extremes projections and its effects on decision-making processes in an Amazonian sub-basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andres Rodriguez, Daniel; Garofolo, Lucas; Lazaro Siqueira Junior, Jose

    2013-04-01

    Uncertainties in Climate Change projections are affected by irreducible uncertainties due to knowledge's limitations, chaotic nature of climate system and human decision-making process. Such uncertainties affect the impact studies, complicating the decision-making process aimed at mitigation and adaptation. However, these uncertainties allow the possibility to develop exploratory analyses on system's vulnerability to different sceneries. Through these kinds of analyses it is possible to identify critical issues, which must be deeper studied. For this study we used several future's projections from General Circulation Models to feed a Hydrological Model, applied to the Amazonian sub-basin of Ji-Paraná. Hydrological Model integrations are performed for present historical time (1970-1990) and for future period (2010-2100). Extreme values analyses are performed to each simulated time series and results are compared with extremes events in present time. A simple approach to identify potential vulnerabilities consists of evaluating the hydrologic system response to climate variability and extreme events observed in the past, comparing them with the conditions projected for the future. Thus it is possible to identify critical issues that need attention and more detailed studies. For the goal of this work, we used socio-economic data from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, the Operator of the National Electric System, the Brazilian National Water Agency and scientific and press published information. This information is used to characterize impacts associated to extremes hydrological events in the basin during the present historical time and to evaluate potential impacts in the future face to the different hydrological projections. Results show inter-model variability results in a broad dispersion on projected extreme's values. The impact of such dispersion is differentiated for different aspects of socio-economic and natural systems and must be carefully

  7. Nuclear regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The fundamental objective of all nuclear safety regulatory bodies is to ensure that nuclear utilities operate their plants at all times in an acceptably safe manner. In meeting this objective, the regulatory body should strive to ensure that its regulatory decisions are technically sound, consistent from case to case, and timely. In addition, the regulator must be aware that its decisions and the circumstances surrounding those decisions can affect how its stakeholders, such as government policy makers, the industry it regulates, and the public, view it as an effective and credible regulator. In order to maintain the confidence of those stakeholders, the regulator should make sure that its decisions are transparent, have a clear basis in law and regulations, and are seen by impartial observers to be fair to all parties. Based on the work of a Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) expert group, this report discusses some of the basic principles and criteria that a regulatory body should consider in making decisions and describes the elements of an integrated framework for regulatory decision making. (author)

  8. Nuclear regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de

    2011-01-01

    The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)

  9. Electroencephalogy (EEG) Feedback in Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-26

    Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) Feedback In Decision- Making The goal of this project is to investigate whether Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) can provide useful...feedback when training rapid decision-making. More specifically, EEG will allow us to provide online feedback about the neural decision processes...Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) Feedback In Decision-Making Report Title The goal of this project is to investigate whether Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) can provide useful

  10. A Decision-Making Model to Attract Private Sector Investors into BOT and BOO Water and Sanitation Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elnaz Abbaszadeh

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Economic development in any country depends on a multitude of factors, among which infrastructure construction projects constitute a major part. Included in this category are large-scale water supply and sanitation schemes that are commonly state-owned and require large allocations from the public funds. Article 214 of the 5th National Development Plan of the Islamic Republic of Iran mandates the Government to employ such public-private partnership tools as BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer and BOO (Build-Own-Operate as the means towards attracting private sector participation to ensure enhanced the efficiency and effectiveness of infrastructure projects. It is the objective of the present study to survey and identify the challenges facing such schemes based on the assessment of the contractual criteria and conditions commonly practiced in water and sanitation projects. The results are expected to lead to the development of a decision-making model that will encourage the private sector’s decision-makers to invest in these projects. Information was collected in two stages. The first stage involved a review of model contracts and interviews with water and sanitation experts. The data thus obtained was subjected to analysis using the SPSS software, which yielded 14 indices as the major components of the public-private partnership contracts used in the industry. In a second stage, the indices were tabulated and prepared in the form of a questionnaire which was presented to experts who were asked to assign weight scores of 1 to 10 to each of the indices. Ranking and scoring was accomplished using the TOPSIS method. Finally, the Pareto diagram was used to select the 10 more important indices which were further divided into two major and minor categories of indices. A model was then developed for scoring by the private sector investment advisors to help them in their decision-making process regarding BOD and BOO water and sanitation projects. The model

  11. Decision Making in Biological Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tian, Chengzhe

    This thesis consists of five projects in three topics with a shared theme of understanding cellular decision-making processes with mathematical modeling. In the first topic, we address the possible interaction between bacterial Toxin-Antitoxin (TA) systems and stringent response alarmone guanosin...

  12. Decision making and imperfection

    CERN Document Server

    Karny, Miroslav; Wolpert, David

    2013-01-01

    Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process.   The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider:   ·          how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions;   ·          how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available;   ...

  13. Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Maite Sara Mashego

    2015-01-01

    Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

  14. Human factors influencing decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Jacobs, Patricia A.

    1998-01-01

    This report supplies references and comments on literature that identifies human factors influencing decision making, particularly military decision making. The literature has been classified as follows (the classes are not mutually exclusive): features of human information processing; decision making models which are not mathematical models but rather are descriptive; non- personality factors influencing decision making; national characteristics influencing decision makin...

  15. MULTICRITERIA DECISION-MAKING

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    HENDRIKS, MMWB; DEBOER, JH; SMILDE, AK; DOORNBOS, DA

    1992-01-01

    Interest is growing in multicriteria decision making (MCDM) techniques and a large number of these techniques are now available. The purpose of this tutorial is to give a theoretical description of some of the MCDM techniques. Besides this we will give an overview of the differences and similarities

  16. Oil industry decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collier, T.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil and gas business is undergoing a significant restructuring. In order to maintain control of our own destiny and succeed in an increasingly competitive business environment, the industry must set goals which are consistent with its continued success and focus on those goals in every aspect of its strategic management. By applying an approach to decision making which focuses on the achievement of the key goals required for success at every decision point and systematic follow-up, a firm can greatly increase its ability to succeed in the business environment of the future

  17. Responsive Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Carsten Lund; Andersen, Torben Juul

    , the aim of this study is to gain deeper insights into the complex and multifaceted decision processes that take place in large complex organizations operating in dynamic high-velocity markets. It is proposed that the ability to obtain faster, more accurate and updated insights about ongoing environmental......Strategic decision making remains a focal point in the strategy field, but despite decades of rich conceptual and empirical research we still seem distant from a level of understanding that can guide corporate practices effectively under turbulent and unpredictable environmental conditions. Hence...

  18. Shared decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godolphin, William

    2009-01-01

    Shared decision-making has been called the crux of patient-centred care and identified as a key part of change for improved quality and safety in healthcare. However, it rarely happens, is hard to do and is not taught - for many reasons. Talking with patients about options is not embedded in the attitudes or communication skills training of most healthcare professionals. Information tools such as patient decision aids, personal health records and the Internet will help to shift this state, as will policy that drives patient and public involvement in healthcare delivery and training.

  19. Decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cyert, R.M.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports on ways of improving the reliability of products and systems in this country if we are to survive as a first-rate industrial power. The use of statistical techniques have, since the 1920s, been viewed as one of the methods for testing quality and estimating the level of quality in a universe of output. Statistical quality control is not relevant, generally, to improving systems in an industry like yours, but certainly the use of probability concepts is of significance. In addition, when it is recognized that part of the problem involves making decisions under uncertainty, it becomes clear that techniques such as sequential decision making and Bayesian analysis become major methodological approaches that must be utilized

  20. Decision making in neonatologia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterlini, G; Tagliabue, P

    2010-06-01

    The field of neonatology presents a fascinating context in which hugely important decisions have to be made on the basis of physicians' assessments of the long term consequences of various possible choices. In many cases such assessments cannot be derived from a consensual professional opinion; the situation is characterized by a high level of uncertainty. A sample of neonatologists in different countries received a questionnaire including vignette cases for which no clear consensus exists regarding the (probabilistic) prognosis. They were asked to (I) assess the probability of various outcomes (death, severe impairment) and (II) choose a treatment to be offered to the parents. Information on the physicians' professional and socio-demographic characteristics and their ethical "values" was also collected. The goal of this international survey is to understand the prognosis and to analyze decision making by professionals in the context of life and death in medicine. The availability of an identical technology in different social and institutional contexts should help identifying the convergences and differences under consideration. Seventy percent of those invited responded to the questionnaire (International 60-80%). Italian neonatologists seem to be quite pessimistic about the prognosis of infants at high risk of death or long term disabilities, they show a pro-life attitude, but in a certain proportion are willing to change their minds if requested by parents. Furthermore personal opinions predominate in the decision-making process and the contribution of team meeting and/or ethic consultation seem not significantly modify the decisions.

  1. Participation in decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EG Valoyi

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to determine the extent to which employees would like to participate in decision making concerning various organisational issues, especially those concerning: the work itself, working conditions, human resources issues, and corporate policy and planning. The sample consisted of 146 participants, including managers, middle managers, and junior officials from a South African development corporation. A questionnaire to measure employees' desire to participate in decision making was specially constructed for this investigation. It has found that employees with higher academic qualifications were more desirous to participate in decision-making at all levels than employees with lower academic qualifications. This was also true for employees in higher job grades than in lower job grades. Men were more desirous to participate in decision making than women. The implications of the findings are discussed. Opsomming Die doel van die huidige studie was om vas te stel in watter mate werknemers sal wil deelneem aan die besluit- nameproses van organisasies, veral rakende die volgende sake: die werk self, werksomstandighede, menslike hulpbronaangeleenthede en korporatiewe beleid en beplanning. Die steekproef het uit 146 deelnemers, insluitende bestuurders, middelvlakbestuurders en junior amptenare van'n Suid Afrikaanse ontwikkelingskorporasie, bestaan. nVraelys wat die begeerte van werknemers meet om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem, is spesiaal vir die doel van hierdie ondersoek, ontwerp. Dit is bevind dat werknemers met hoer akademiese kwalifikasies meer begerig is om aan die besluitnameproses op alle vlakke deel te neem as werknemers met laer akademiese kwalifikasies. Dit was ook waar vir werknemers in hoervlakposte vergeleke met werknemers in laervlakposte. Mans was ook meer begerig om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem as vroue. Die implikasies van die studie word bespreek.

  2. Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Krysanova, V.; Dankers, R.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.; Hattermann, F. F.; Huang, S.; Milly, P. C. D.; Stoffel, M.H.; Driessen, P. P. J.; Matczak, Piotr; Quevauviller, P.; Schellnhuber, H. J.

    2017-01-01

    This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises

  3. A System Dynamics Model for Integrated Decision Making: The Durham-Orange Light Rail Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program (SHC) is conducting transdisciplinary research to inform and empower decision-makers. EPA tools and approaches are being developed to enable communities to effectively weigh and integrate human health, socioeconomic, envi...

  4. A New Dynamic Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach for Green Supplier Selection in Construction Projects under Time Sequence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi Yin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, due to the lack of natural resources and environment problems which have been appearing increasingly, green building is more and more involved in the construction industry. The evaluation and selection of green supplier are a significant part of the development of green building. In this paper, we propose a new dynamic multicriteria decision-making approach in construction projects under time sequence to deal with these problems. First, the paper establishes 4 main criteria and 17 subcriteria for green supplier selection in construction projects. Then, a method considering interaction between criteria and the influence of constructors subjective preference and objective criteria information is proposed. It uses the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy geometric weighted Heronian means (IVIFGWHM operator and multitarget nonlinear programming model to calculate the comprehensive evaluation results of potential green suppliers. The proposed method is much easier for constructors to select green supplier and make the localization of green supplier more practical and accurate in construction projects. Finally, a case study about a green building project is given to verify practicality and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  5. Strengthening the decision making in Spain, the national centralized waste storage project and the Cowam-Spain initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Bars, Y.

    2007-01-01

    Yves Le Bars, analysed the Spanish case within the European context. First, he summarised the evolution of policy-making approaches since the Second World War. In the first stage. decision-making authority was assigned to experts. Dialogue was not part of decision processes; opposition manifested itself in protest actions. In the second stage, society demanded the consideration of alternative solutions. Opponents organised legal actions and in this way decision-making authority was transferred to the courts, which based their judgements on hearing experts on differing sides of the question. The third stage is characterised by the involvement of relevant stakeholders and an interaction between decision makers, experts and stakeholders. According to this approach, public policy needs to be elaborated, adapted to, and adopted by different interest groups. He argued that the Spanish history of radioactive waste management went through the former two stages. The siting attempt for an underground disposal facility followed the approach of the first stage. Decision makers and experts were of the view that deep geological disposal was the best solution and they were not willing to share information with the public. This led to a failure and a moratorium. The Vandellos -I decommissioning case shows some features of the second stage. for example. the introduction of independent expertise in the Municipal Monitoring Commission. Finally, with the involvement of AMAC. a shift to the third stage can be seen: the COWAM-Spain project defined main principles for a decision-making process where policy makers, experts and stakeholders could collaborate to define a viable radioactive waste management policy. He observed that the current Spanish situation raises a number of questions. On the national level, the direction of radioactive waste management policy is defined by the national Plan. which is periodically revised. It is an open question as to how the national planning process

  6. Importance of on-time decision making in energy sector based on perspectives: Case study new Stavalj project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zlatanović Dragan M.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Expression "Development conditions and perspectives" became important for numerous analyses in various industrial and social areas. Several strategic documents and studies in last two decades analysed projects with topics on perspectives of future development in Serbia. Various tools are used for development of such documents, based on recent scientific and numerical solutions, thus providing reliable assessment for strategic decision making. Almost all analyses tried to implement the theories and practical experiences through the prism of "sustainable development", which included establishment of most important sustainability parameters. Analysis and ranking presented in this paper considered the potential of the Stavalj coal deposit, near city of Sjenica in Serbia, and feasibility of construction project of new mine and thermal power plant. Basis for analysis was a hybrid assessment model which takes into account principles of sustainable development. The model incorporates quantified SWOT analysis, which applies to active underground mines in Serbia. Special attention was given to the parameters describing potential for development.

  7. Manned space flight in debate - An interdisciplinary project for technical decision making will make the discussion more rational

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gethmann, Carl F.; Janich, Peter; Sax, Hartmut

    1992-08-01

    Arguments for manned spaceflight that do not depend on cost-benefit analysis are examined. Project Safire is used to illustrate arguments based on the need to further international cooperation, promote national morale, and motivate technological investigations.

  8. Making training decisions proactively

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, R.F.

    1988-01-01

    The challenge of making training decisions with a high degree of confidence as to the results of those decisions face every DOD, Federal, State, and City agency. Training has historically been a very labor and paper intensive system with limited automation support. This paper outlines how one DOD component, the Air Force, is approaching that challenge. The Training Decision System (TDS) will provide the Air Force with an automated decision aid to help plan and estimate the consequences of various mixes of resident training, On-The-Job Training (OJT), and field training within a specialty such as security. The system described provides training from enlistment to separation and responds to hundreds of related security task needs. This system identifies what the tasks are, who should provide the training, what training setting should be used, what proficiency should be achieved, and through computer modeling provides an assessment of training effectiveness options and estimate the impact of implementing those options. With current budgetary constraints and with the possibility of further reductions in the future, the most cost effective training mix must be found to sustain required capabilities

  9. Sustainability-Oriented Financial Resource Allocation in a Project Portfolio through Multi-Criteria Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nomeda Dobrovolskienė

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Modern portfolio theory attempts to maximize the expected return of a portfolio for a given level of portfolio risk, or equivalently minimize risk for a given level of expected return. The reality, however, shows that, when selecting projects to a portfolio and allocating resources in the portfolio, an increasing number of organizations take into account other aspects as well. As a result of the sole purpose (risk-return, it offers only a partial solution for a sustainable organization. Existing project portfolio selection and resource allocation methods and models do not consider sustainability. Therefore, the aim of this article is to develop a sustainability-oriented model of financial resource allocation in a project portfolio by integrating a composite sustainability index of a project into Markowitz’s classical risk-return scheme (mean-variance model. The model was developed by applying multi-criteria decision-making methods. The practicability of the model was tested by an empirical study in a selected construction company. The proposed sustainability-oriented financial resource allocation model could be used in allocating financial resources in any type of business. The use of the model would not only help organisations to manage risk and achieve higher return but would also allow carrying out sustainable projects, thereby promoting greater environmental responsibility and giving more consideration to the wellbeing of future generations. Moreover, the model allows quantifying the impact of the integration of sustainability into financial resource allocation on the return of a portfolio.

  10. Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

    CERN Document Server

    Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H

    2012-01-01

    Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit

  11. Multi-actor decision making using mixed reality technologies Urban projects and multi-actor collaboration

    OpenAIRE

    Basile,, Maria; Ozdirlik, Burcu; Terrin,, Jean-Jacques

    2009-01-01

    International audience; This paper is based on the results of an ongoing research project, IPCity, on the application of mixed reality technologies in urban environments. It questions the relevance of traditional language and communication medium such as drawings, perspectives and 3D models in the co-production of urban projects in multi-actor working environments. It then discusses the possible use of “mixed reality technologies” as alternative medium through five workshops organised within ...

  12. KASAM project for detailed study of the decision making process and basis for decisions in the nuclear waste area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedberg, Bjoern

    2008-01-01

    The idea of the transparency programme is that it should increase the transparency, and thereby the quality, of the decision process and the document basis for the up coming decisions related to the SKB (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company) license applications for a final repository for high level nuclear waste and an encapsulation plant for spent nuclear fuel. KASAM (Swedish National Council for Nuclear Waste) was in charge of the transparency program. The pre-study proposes that KASAM uses the RISCOM-model to support the transparency programme. During the pre-study a number of stakeholders were approached to give their views about the format and contents of the transparency programme and a large number of new issues were raised that could be included in transparency creating activities. Among these issues we got for instance: the role of responsible authorities, on what basis for site selection? or socio-economic issues or critical assumptions in the safety assessment or safety philosophy. Recurrent elements in the transparency programme would then be: -) a clear description of the background for the issue being addressed, -) knowledge building activities, and -) a hearing where the KASAM committee members and staff meet the stakeholders to discuss the issue

  13. Heuristic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gigerenzer, Gerd; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.

  14. Lessons learnt from the DECI project on different processes for public participation and transparency in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, K.

    2000-01-01

    This study emanates from the work in Oskarshamn to build a process for public participation related to the site selection for a nuclear waste repository (the 'Oskarshamn model'). The idea was to see how these experiences could be useful in a broader context of decision making in complex issues, especially considering issues of common interest in the Baltic Sea Region. A pre-study for a 'Decision Institute', DECI, was initiated to describe problems in today's society that DECI would address, explore methods for the enhancement of transparency and public participation, and to suggest approaches for research and application. The study was financed by Swebaltcop (a EU Baltic Sea Co-operation Programme), the Regional Council in Kalmar County, and the Municipality of Oskarshamn. It was conducted by an interdisciplinary research group from Karinta-Konsult, the Royal Institute of Technology and the University of Gothenburg. Besides the work in Oskarshamn, results from the RISCOM Pilot project and current developments in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) were in particular taken into account. This presentation: - Addresses problems with decisions on complex issues. - Discusses reasons for public participation. - Gives a framework for transparency. - Describes a number procedures aimed at public participation and transparency. - Gives a framework for how procedures can be structured. - Gives some conclusions with regard to present status and future work. (author)

  15. PISA Research Project Portfolio. Towards a new understanding of technological decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meskens, G.

    2006-01-01

    In 2005, the programme of integration of social sciences into nuclear research participates in several research projects. It is the aim to apply transdiciplinary problem-oriented methods in PhD's work, in contract research, in international networking and to take challenging opportunities in conferences

  16. Knowledge, decision making, and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fox, J.

    1986-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) systems depend heavily upon the ability to make decisions. Decisions require knowledge, yet there is no knowledge-based theory of decision making. To the extent that AI uses a theory of decision-making it adopts components of the traditional statistical view in which choices are made by maximizing some function of the probabilities of decision options. A knowledge-based scheme for reasoning about uncertainty is proposed, which extends the traditional framework but is compatible with it

  17. Serotonin and decision making processes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Homberg, J.R.

    2012-01-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients.

  18. Tools for collaborative decision-making

    CERN Document Server

    Zaraté, Pascale

    2013-01-01

    Decision-making has evolved recently thanks to the introduction of information and communication technologies in many organizations, which has led to new kinds of decision-making processes, called "collaborative decision-making", at the organizational and cognitive levels. This book looks at the development of the decision-making process in organizations. Decision-aiding and its paradigm of problem solving are defined, showing how decision-makers now need to work in a cooperative way. Definitions of cooperation and associated concepts such as collaboration and coordination are given and a framework of cooperative decision support systems is presented, including intelligent DSS, cooperative knowledge-based systems, workflow, group support systems, collaborative engineering, integrating with a collaborative decision-making model in part or being part of global projects. Several models and experimental studies are also included showing that these new processes have to be supported by new types of tools, several ...

  19. The role intuitive decision making plays in project selection in the residential property market: a case study of a medium sized

    OpenAIRE

    Ryan, Diarmuid

    2013-01-01

    non-peer-reviewed This thesis addresses the role of intuition in project selection in residential property development. The paper provides a comprehensive review of existing literature in relation to project selection and decision making. In addition, the examination of the project files of M.A. Ryan & Sons Ltd., a medium sized property development company, has enabled a case study to be carried out on three projects carried out by the organisation. Through the case study, t...

  20. Inertia and Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui

    2016-01-01

    Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency.

  1. Moral and Ethical Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-07-01

    rational ones (i.e. Kohlberg’s influential model of decision making ). However, non- rational elements, such as affect, risk perception, risk preference...dread or anxiety) play a strong role in many types of decisions , and that the addition of decision makers’ emotions to models of choice may make ...White, 1994) agree that emotions are an integral part of ethical decision making as well. Emotions arise in the context of interpersonal

  2. The Perils of Democratic Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aalbers, H.L.; Whelan, E.; Parise, S.; Vialle, C.

    2016-01-01

    The article focuses on the organizational decision-making management. Topics mentioned include the development of enterprise social software (ESS), the online corporate communities management, and the project management. Also mentioned are the importance of customer services, the bankruptcy

  3. Hospice decision making: diagnosis makes a difference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldrop, Deborah P; Meeker, Mary Ann

    2012-10-01

    This study explored the process of decision making about hospice enrollment and identified factors that influence the timing of that decision. This study employed an exploratory, descriptive, cross-sectional design and was conducted using qualitative methods. In-depth in-person semistructured interviews were conducted with 36 hospice patients and 55 caregivers after 2 weeks of hospice care. The study was guided by Janis and Mann's conflict theory model (CTM) of decision making. Qualitative data analysis involved a directed content analysis using concepts from the CTM. A model of hospice enrollment decision making is presented. Concepts from the CTM (appraisal, surveying and weighing the alternatives, deliberations, adherence) were used as an organizing framework to illustrate the dynamics. Distinct differences were found by diagnosis (cancer vs. other chronic illness, e.g., heart and lung diseases) during the pre-encounter phase or before the hospice referral but no differences emerged during the post-encounter phase. Differences in decision making by diagnosis suggest the need for research about effective means for tailored communication in end-of-life decision making by type of illness. Recognition that decision making about hospice admission varies is important for clinicians who aim to provide person-centered and family-focused care.

  4. Emotions, Mood and Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Agnes Virlics

    2014-01-01

    Decisions are made according to a complex cognitive and emotional evaluation of the situation. The aim of the paper is to examine the effect of mood on risky investment decision making by using a mood induction procedure. The paper investigates how happy and sad mood affects risky investment decision making and whether there is a difference between the perception of fix investments and monetary investments. The analysis has been conducted focusing on individual investment decisions. Data for ...

  5. Regret in Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Connolly, T.; Zeelenberg, M.

    2002-01-01

    Decision research has only recently started to take seriously the role of emotions in choices and decisions. Regret is the emotion that has received the most attention. In this article, we sample a number of the initial regret studies from psychology and economics, and trace some of the complexities

  6. [Interoception and decision-making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohira, Hideki

    2015-02-01

    We sometimes make decisions relying not necessarily on deliberative thoughts but on intuitive and emotional processes in uncertain situations. The somatic marker hypothesis proposed by Damasio argued that interoception, which means bodily responses such as sympathetic activity, can be represented in the insula and anterior cingulate cortex and can play critical roles in decision-making. Though this hypothesis has been criticized in its theoretical and empirical aspects, recent studies are expanding the hypothesis to elucidate multiple bodily responses including autonomic, endocrine, and immune activities that affect decision-making. In addition, cumulative findings suggest that the anterior insula where the inner model of interoception is represented can act as an interface between the brain and body in decision-making. This article aims to survey recent findings on the brain-body interplays underlying decision-making, and to propose hypotheses on the significance of the body in decision-making.

  7. Collaborative Decision Making in METOC

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    desired effect (Eagly, & Chaiken, 1993). Arguably, artificial intelligence is representative of the best of approaches in rational decision - making ...2001), The quantum of social action and the function of emotion in decision - making , Emotional and Intelligent II: The Tangled Knot of Social...Collaborative decision making in METOC W.F. Lawless Paine College, Departments of Mathematics and Psychology Augusta, GA 30901-3182 ph: 706

  8. Decentralizing decision making in modularization strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Israelsen, Poul; Jørgensen, Brian

    2011-01-01

    which distorts the economic effects of modularization at the level of the individual product. This has the implication that decisions on modularization can only be made by top management if decision authority and relevant information are to be aligned. To overcome this problem, we suggest a solution...... that aligns the descriptions of the economic consequences of modularization at the project and portfolio level which makes it possible to decentralize decision making while making sure that local goals are congruent with the global ones in order to avoid suboptimal behaviour. Keywords: Modularization......; Accounting; Cost allocation; Decision rule; Decentralization...

  9. Dementia, Decision Making, and Capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darby, R Ryan; Dickerson, Bradford C

    After participating in this activity, learners should be better able to:• Assess the neuropsychological literature on decision making and the medical and legal assessment of capacity in patients with dementia• Identify the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments for patients with dementia ABSTRACT: Medical and legal professionals face the challenge of assessing capacity and competency to make medical, legal, and financial decisions in dementia patients with impaired decision making. While such assessments have classically focused on the capacity for complex reasoning and executive functions, research in decision making has revealed that motivational and metacognitive processes are also important. We first briefly review the neuropsychological literature on decision making and on the medical and legal assessment of capacity. Next, we discuss the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments, including the group-to-individual inference problem, the unclear role of neuroimaging in capacity assessments, and the lack of capacity measures that integrate important facets of decision making. Finally, we present several case examples where we attempt to demonstrate the potential benefits and important limitations of using decision-making research to aid in capacity determinations.

  10. Evidence informed decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharma, Tarang; Choudhury, Moni; Kaur, Bindweep

    2015-01-01

    from the literature and a combined best practice checklist has been proposed. CONCLUSIONS: As decisions often need to be made in areas where there is a lack of published scientific evidence, CE is employed. Therefore to ensure its appropriateness the development of a validated CE data quality check......-list to assist decision makers is essential and further research in this area is a priority....

  11. Constraint programming and decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    2014-01-01

    In many application areas, it is necessary to make effective decisions under constraints. Several area-specific techniques are known for such decision problems; however, because these techniques are area-specific, it is not easy to apply each technique to other applications areas. Cross-fertilization between different application areas is one of the main objectives of the annual International Workshops on Constraint Programming and Decision Making. Those workshops, held in the US (El Paso, Texas), in Europe (Lyon, France), and in Asia (Novosibirsk, Russia), from 2008 to 2012, have attracted researchers and practitioners from all over the world. This volume presents extended versions of selected papers from those workshops. These papers deal with all stages of decision making under constraints: (1) formulating the problem of multi-criteria decision making in precise terms, (2) determining when the corresponding decision problem is algorithmically solvable; (3) finding the corresponding algorithms, and making...

  12. Robust Decision Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christopher A. Dieckmann, PE, CSEP-Acq

    2010-07-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is funded through the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy and other customers who have direct contracts with the Laboratory. The people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure at the laboratory require continual investment to maintain and improve the laboratory’s capabilities. With ever tightening federal and customer budgets, the ability to direct investments into the people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure which are most closely aligned with the laboratory’s mission and customers’ goals grows increasingly more important. The ability to justify those investment decisions based on objective criteria that can withstand political, managerial and technical criticism also becomes increasingly more important. The Systems Engineering tools of decision analysis, risk management and roadmapping, when properly applied to such problems, can provide defensible decisions.

  13. The Participation and Decision Making of "At Risk" Youth in Community Music Projects: An Exploration of Three Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimmer, Mark

    2012-01-01

    In the UK, recent years have witnessed a considerable growth in youth participation activities that seek to involve children and young people in various forms of decision-making. One such form of youth participation to benefit from increased government support since the late 1990s concerns community arts activities, especially those targeting…

  14. Decision making on fitness landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur, R.; Sibani, P.

    2017-04-01

    We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et al. that we call the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures.

  15. Decision Making on Fitness Landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arthur, Rudy; Sibani, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et. al. that we call...... the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures....

  16. Decision Making: The Underdeveloped Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelps, Robert

    1974-01-01

    Business educators should give students specific training in a methodology which will enable them to make logical, systematic, and rational decisions. Kepner-Tregoe Analysis (KTA), a decision making model, is described and illustrated with an example of a student buying his first car. (SC)

  17. Emotional Intelligence and Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A M Kustubayeva

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The results of the experimental research of the connection between the efficiency of decision making and emotional intelligence are presented in the article. The empirical data indicate that the ability to regulate emotion is an important indicator of the efficiency of decision making in the conditions of psychological experiment.

  18. Non-native fish control below Glen Canyon Dam - Report from a structured decision-making project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; Bean, Ellen; Smith, David; Kokos, Sonja

    2011-01-01

    This report describes the results of a structured decision-making project by the U.S. Geological Survey to provide substantive input to the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) for use in the preparation of an Environmental Assessment concerning control of non-native fish below Glen Canyon Dam. A forum was created to allow the diverse cooperating agencies and Tribes to discuss, expand, and articulate their respective values; to develop and evaluate a broad set of potential control alternatives using the best available science; and to define individual preferences of each group on how to manage the inherent trade-offs in this non-native fish control problem. This project consisted of two face-to-face workshops, held in Mesa, Arizona, October 18-20 and November 8-10, 2010. At the first workshop, a diverse set of objectives was discussed, which represented the range of concerns of those agencies and Tribes present. A set of non-native fish control alternatives ('hybrid portfolios') was also developed. Over the 2-week period between the two workshops, four assessment teams worked to evaluate the control alternatives against the array of objectives. At the second workshop, the results of the assessment teams were presented. Multi-criteria decision analysis methods were used to examine the trade-offs inherent in the problem, and allowed the participating agencies and Tribes to express their individual judgments about how those trade-offs should best be managed in Reclamation`s selection of a preferred alternative. A broad array of objectives was identified and defined, and an effort was made to understand how these objectives are likely to be achieved by a variety of strategies. In general, the objectives reflected desired future conditions over 30 years. A rich set of alternative approaches was developed, and the complex structure of those alternatives was documented. Multi-criteria decision analysis methods allowed the evaluation of those alternatives against the array

  19. Decision Making in the Airplane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that

  20. What factors do patients consider most important in making lung cancer screening decisions? Findings from a demonstration project conducted in the Veterans Health Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lillie, Sarah E; Fu, Steven S; Fabbrini, Angela E; Rice, Kathryn L; Clothier, Barbara; Nelson, David B; Doro, Elizabeth A; Moughrabieh, M Anas; Partin, Melissa R

    2017-02-01

    The National Lung Screening Trial recently reported that annual low-dose computed tomography screening is associated with decreased lung cancer mortality in high-risk smokers. This study sought to identify the factors patients consider important in making lung cancer screening (LCS) decisions, and explore variations by patient characteristics and LCS participation. This observational survey study evaluated the Minneapolis VA LCS Clinical Demonstration Project in which LCS-eligible Veterans (N=1388) were randomized to either Direct LCS Invitation (mailed with decision aid, N=926) or Usual Care (provider referral, N=462). We surveyed participants three months post-randomization (response rate 44%) and report the proportion of respondents rating eight decision-making factors (benefits, harms, and neutral factors) as important by condition, patient characteristics, and LCS completion. Overall, the most important factor was personal risk of lung cancer and the least important factor was health risks from LCS. The reported importance varied by patient characteristics, including smoking status, health status, and education level. Overall, the potential harms of LCS were reported less important than the benefits or the neutral decision-making factors. Exposure to Direct LCS Invitation (with decision aid) increased Veterans' attention to specific decision-making factors; compared to Usual Care respondents, a larger proportion of Direct LCS Invitation respondents rated the chance of false-positive results, LCS knowledge, LCS convenience, and anxiety as important. Those completing LCS considered screening harms less important, with the exception of incidental findings. Decision tools influence Veterans' perceptions about LCS decision-making factors. As the factors important to LCS decision making vary by patient characteristics, targeted materials for specific subgroups may be warranted. Attention should be paid to how LCS incidental findings are communicated. Published by

  1. Managerial Decision Making in Traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodor Perić

    2003-11-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making is defined as a selection of a certain actionamong several alternatives. It is the essence of planning, asin the managerial sense there is no plan until a decision of engagementof resources, reputation and direction of activities ismade. Decision-making is, in fact, only a step in planning, evenwhen it is performed quickly and without special consideration.It is what we all experience every day. It is one of the most fascinatingbiological activities and the subject of frightening implicationsfor the whole human race. Since various techniques improvethe system and the quality of managerial decision-making,they are classified into three assumptions: risk analysis, decision-making trees, and the theory of revealed preference. Allof these are based on the interaction of a certain number of importantvariables out of which many contain the elements ofuncertainty, but maybe also high level of probability.

  2. Monitoring as component for the decision making in final repository projects; Monitoring als Baustein fuer die Entscheidungsfindung in Endlagerprojekten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kallenbach-Herbert, Beate; Alt, Stefan [Oeko-Institut e.V., Darmstadt (Germany)

    2012-12-15

    The monitoring in final radioactive waste repositories is performed by continuous or repeated measurements of technical and geologic parameters during long time periods. The collected data serve manifold purposes. The central focus is to provide fundamental information for the decision between and within the three phases of a final repository project. This means that monitoring is not only the sum of technical surveillance measures. Monitoring is also important for several sociopolitical decisions, for instance in case of closure of the repository. The article discusses possible objectives and shows the relevant technical aspects that are used deduce the requirements for an integrated monitoring concept. It is shown that a monitoring concept should be developed early enough involving all groups that are concerned by the waste disposal project.

  3. Decision Making Styles and Progress in Occupational Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Susan D.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Examined the role of rational, intuitive, and dependent decisional strategies in facilitating decisions about postcollege occupation among college students (N=71). Results indicated that the use of a dependent decision-making style was the single most powerful predictor of progress. (LLL)

  4. Human Errors in Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamad, Shahriari; Aliandrina, Dessy; Feng, Yan

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this paper was to identify human errors in decision making process. The study was focused on a research question such as: what could be the human error as a potential of decision failure in evaluation of the alternatives in the process of decision making. Two case studies were selected from the literature and analyzed to find the human errors contribute to decision fail. Then the analysis of human errors was linked with mental models in evaluation of alternative step. The results o...

  5. Making Healthy Decisions About Sex

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... For Teens: How to Make Healthy Decisions About Sex Page Content Article Body Before you decide to ... alcohol or use drugs. Are You Ready for Sex? Sex can change your life and relationships. Having ...

  6. Decide Now - Ditch Decision Making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Campion, John

    2004-01-01

    .... The separation of psychology into sub-disciplines or paradigms that don't talk to one another. 3. The failure to distinguish between technical and common language usage when dealing with concepts such as decision making and command...

  7. Ethical aspect price decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grubor Aleksandar

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Price decision making in a marketing program framework creatings is a complicated and delicated part of marketing management, especially to keep in sight culminating of mass external factors. In a market economies price policy as a marketing mix instrument rarely is regulated by the law, which opening the ethical aspect questions of price decision making process. The ethics in the price decision making means consideration of the inner law of the individual (marketing managers and/or consumers, whose irreverence does not entail any juridical sanctions, rather its application is sanctioned by the self - awareness. The acception and stability of the ethical aspect price decision making are determined by the characteristic of selected marketing environment.

  8. Logical Reasoning and Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Ong, D; Khaddaj, Souheil; Bashroush, Rabih

    2011-01-01

    Most intelligent systems have some form of \\ud decision making mechanisms built into their \\ud organisations. These normally include a logical \\ud reasoning element into their design. This paper reviews \\ud and compares the different logical reasoning strategies, \\ud and tries to address the accuracy and precision of \\ud decision making by formulating a tolerance to \\ud imprecision view which can be used in conjunction with \\ud the various reasoning strategies.

  9. Serotonin and decision making processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homberg, Judith R

    2012-01-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients. Detailed insight into the serotonergic mechanisms underlying decision making is needed to strengthen the first and weaken the latter. Although much remains to be done to achieve this, accumulating studies begin to deliver a coherent view. Thus, high central 5-HT levels are generally associated with improved reversal learning, improved attentional set shifting, decreased delay discounting, and increased response inhibition, but a failure to use outcome representations. Based on 5-HT's evolutionary role, I hypothesize that 5-HT integrates expected, or changes in, relevant sensory and emotional internal/external information, leading to vigilance behaviour affecting various decision making processes. 5-HT receptor subtypes play distinctive roles in decision making. 5-HT(2A) agonists and 5-HT2c antagonists decrease compulsivity, whereas 5-HT(2A) antagonists and 5-HT(2C) agonists decrease impulsivity. 5-HT(6) antagonists univocally affect decision making processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Heuristic decision making in medicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marewski, Julian N.; Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2012-01-01

    Can less information be more helpful when it comes to making medical decisions? Contrary to the common intuition that more information is always better, the use of heuristics can help both physicians and patients to make sound decisions. Heuristics are simple decision strategies that ignore part of the available information, basing decisions on only a few relevant predictors. We discuss: (i) how doctors and patients use heuristics; and (ii) when heuristics outperform information-greedy methods, such as regressions in medical diagnosis. Furthermore, we outline those features of heuristics that make them useful in health care settings. These features include their surprising accuracy, transparency, and wide accessibility, as well as the low costs and little time required to employ them. We close by explaining one of the statistical reasons why heuristics are accurate, and by pointing to psychiatry as one area for future research on heuristics in health care. PMID:22577307

  11. Heuristic decision making in medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marewski, Julian N; Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2012-03-01

    Can less information be more helpful when it comes to making medical decisions? Contrary to the common intuition that more information is always better, the use of heuristics can help both physicians and patients to make sound decisions. Heuristics are simple decision strategies that ignore part of the available information, basing decisions on only a few relevant predictors. We discuss: (i) how doctors and patients use heuristics; and (ii) when heuristics outperform information-greedy methods, such as regressions in medical diagnosis. Furthermore, we outline those features of heuristics that make them useful in health care settings. These features include their surprising accuracy, transparency, and wide accessibility, as well as the low costs and little time required to employ them. We close by explaining one of the statistical reasons why heuristics are accurate, and by pointing to psychiatry as one area for future research on heuristics in health care.

  12. Decision making in urological surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abboudi, Hamid; Ahmed, Kamran; Normahani, Pasha; Abboudi, May; Kirby, Roger; Challacombe, Ben; Khan, Mohammed Shamim; Dasgupta, Prokar

    2012-06-01

    Non-technical skills are important behavioural aspects that a urologist must be fully competent at to minimise harm to patients. The majority of surgical errors are now known to be due to errors in judgment and decision making as opposed to the technical aspects of the craft. The authors reviewed the published literature regarding decision-making theory and in practice related to urology as well as the current tools available to assess decision-making skills. Limitations include limited number of studies, and the available studies are of low quality. Decision making is the psychological process of choosing between alternative courses of action. In the surgical environment, this can often be a complex balance of benefit and risk within a variable time frame and dynamic setting. In recent years, the emphasis of new surgical curriculums has shifted towards non-technical surgical skills; however, the assessment tools in place are far from objective, reliable and valid. Surgical simulators and video-assisted questionnaires are useful methods for appraisal of trainees. Well-designed, robust and validated tools need to be implemented in training and assessment of decision-making skills in urology. Patient safety can only be ensured when safe and effective decisions are made.

  13. Review/decide and inquiry/decide. Two approaches to decision making. Report from a team syntegrity meeting. Project RISCOM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Kjell

    1998-01-01

    The meeting addressed the question how it is possible to make decision processes and risk assessment for deep repository development more transparent. The two dominant decision approaches used in Sweden and the UK, review/decide(r/d) and inquiry/decide(i/d), were discussed. The main conclusions from group discussions were: It was acknowledged that the concept of transparency includes three equally important aspects: factual issues, value issues, and stake holder's authenticity. There is a need in both countries to bring in the best aspects of both the r/d and the i/d approaches. Both approaches seem to offer possibilities and suffer limitations with respect to the segregation of facts, uncertainties and value judgements, and some sort of combination of the two may present a valuable development. However, neither the i/d nor the r/d approach seems to provide a good framework for clarification of the value issue. Experts have dominated the decision process in both countries. There is a need for a more genuine consultation process. The Swedish EIA is evolving in this direction. The regulator should take part in the process, also at an early stage. It is important that the integrity of the regulator is maintained. Rules and responsibilities of implementers, regulators, planning authorities and other decision-makers should be established early in the process. The public should know that they have access to a process that clarifies value judgements, facts, uncertainties and questions. It is necessary for the public to know what the technical issues are, and to have the means to evaluate the authenticity of the experts. It is important that political decisions are not taken without due consideration of scientific and technical arguments. There are factors beside safety assessments which are completely legitimate to consider. An approach with intense interaction between politicians, experts and the public is needed

  14. Review/decide and inquiry/decide. Two approaches to decision making. Report from a team syntegrity meeting. Project RISCOM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Kjell [ed.] [Karinta-Konsult, Taeby (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    The meeting addressed the question how it is possible to make decision processes and risk assessment for deep repository development more transparent. The two dominant decision approaches used in Sweden and the UK, review/decide(r/d) and inquiry/decide(i/d), were discussed. The main conclusions from group discussions were: It was acknowledged that the concept of transparency includes three equally important aspects: factual issues, value issues, and stake holder`s authenticity. There is a need in both countries to bring in the best aspects of both the r/d and the i/d approaches. Both approaches seem to offer possibilities and suffer limitations with respect to the segregation of facts, uncertainties and value judgements, and some sort of combination of the two may present a valuable development. However, neither the i/d nor the r/d approach seems to provide a good framework for clarification of the value issue. Experts have dominated the decision process in both countries. There is a need for a more genuine consultation process. The Swedish EIA is evolving in this direction. The regulator should take part in the process, also at an early stage. It is important that the integrity of the regulator is maintained. Rules and responsibilities of implementers, regulators, planning authorities and other decision-makers should be established early in the process. The public should know that they have access to a process that clarifies value judgements, facts, uncertainties and questions. It is necessary for the public to know what the technical issues are, and to have the means to evaluate the authenticity of the experts. It is important that political decisions are not taken without due consideration of scientific and technical arguments. There are factors beside safety assessments which are completely legitimate to consider. An approach with intense interaction between politicians, experts and the public is needed.

  15. GM ethical decision making in practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald Bruce

    2002-09-01

    Full Text Available Celia Deane-Drummond's case for wisdom as an approach to ethical decision making and her doubts about case-oriented methodology are critiqued with reference to the SRT Project's Engineering Genesis study. Its approach is explored in practical decisions on various real life examples of genetic modification in crops and animals. It involved both intrinsic and consequential approaches, and identified key value positions behind different policies and stakeholders. The paper also clarifies the relationship between reactive (cost-benefit and precautionary risk assessment, explaining their strengths and limitations, and the role of underlying values in both forms of risk decision making.

  16. Adaptive Management for Decision Making at the Program and Project Levels of the Missouri River Recovery Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thom, Ronald M.; Anderson, Michael G.; Tyre, Drew; Fleming, Craig A.

    2009-02-28

    The paper, “Adaptive Management: Background for Stakeholders in the Missouri River Recovery Program,” introduced the concept of adaptive management (AM), its principles and how they relate to one-another, how AM is applied, and challenges for its implementation. This companion paper describes how the AM principles were applied to specific management actions within the Missouri River Recovery Program to facilitate understanding, decision-making, and stakeholder engagement. For context, we begin with a brief synopsis of the Missouri River Recovery Program (MRRP) and the strategy for implementing adaptive management (AM) within the program; we finish with an example of AM in action within Phase I of the MRPP.

  17. Decision making regarding multifetal reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maifeld, Michelle; Hahn, Sandra; Titler, Marita G; Mullen, Meredithe

    2003-01-01

    To identify salient variables that influence decision making regarding multifetal reduction (MFR) and describe their effect on individuals over time. Prospective, exploratory, descriptive design, using qualitative and quantitative methods. Midwestern tertiary care center. A convenience sample of 11 consecutive consenting couples with triplet or higher-order pregnancies who elected to undergo MFR. Semistructured audiotaped telephone interviews at three points: (a) 2 weeks postreduction, (b) 6 weeks postpartum, and (c) 6 months postpartum; a demographic and marital adjustment questionnaire. Themes identified by content analysis and compared via matrix analysis between males and females and at three points in time; trends in marital adjustment. Dominant variables influencing MFR decision making were risks associated with higher-order pregnancies and preservation of infants' and mothers' health. Most participants identified emotional issues, including moral and ethical dilemmas, as the most difficult aspect of reduction. Over time, participants reported feeling more positive about their decision; nonetheless, negative feelings emerged progressively. Risk aversion favored MFR decision making. Yet, both making and living with the decision were emotionally difficult for this sample. Interventions are needed to assist couples with this decision and its consequences.

  18. Regulatory decision making by decision analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.; Pulkkinen, U.

    1993-11-01

    The Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) has studied with the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) the applicability of decision analytic approach to the treatment of nuclear safety related problems at the regulatory body. The role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in decision making has also been discussed. In the study, inspectors from STUK exercised with a decision analytic approach by reoperationalizing two occurred and solved problems. The research scientist from VTT acted as systems analysts guiding the analysis process. The first case was related to a common cause failure phenomenon in solenoid valves controlling pneumatic valves important to safety of the plant. The problem of the regulatory body was to judge whether to allow continued operation or to require more detailed inspections and in which time chedule the inspections should be done. The latter problem was to evaluate design changes of external electrical grid connections after a fire incident had revealed weakness in the separation of electrical system. In both cases, the decision analysis was carried out several sessions in which decision makers, technical experts as well as experts of decision analysis participated. A multi-attribute value function was applied as a decision model so that attributes had to be defined to quantify the levels of achievements of the objectives. The attributes included both indicators related to the level of operational safety of the plant such as core damage frequency given by PSA, and indicators related to the safety culture, i.e., how well the chosen option fits on the regulatory policy. (24 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs.)

  19. Structured decision making: Chapter 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; Grand, James B.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Krausman, Paul R.; Cain, James W. III

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.

  20. Decision Making Under Uncertain Categorization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Ying-Fen Chen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Two experiments investigated how category information is used in decision making under uncertainty and whether the framing of category information influences how it is used. Subjects were presented with vignettes in which the categorization of a critical item was ambiguous and were asked to choose among a set of actions with the goal of attaining the desired outcome for the main character in the story. The normative decision making strategy was to base the decision on all possible categories; however, research on a related topic, category-based induction, has found that people often only consider a single category when making predictions when categorization is uncertain. These experiments found that subjects tend to consider multiple categories when making decisions, but do so both when it is and is not appropriate, suggesting that use of multiple categories is not driven by an understanding of what categories are and are not relevant to the decision. Similarly, although a framing manipulation increased the rate of multiple-category use, it did so in situations in which multiple-category use was and was not appropriate.

  1. Unrealistic optimism and decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božović Bojana

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the leading descriptive theories of decision-making under risk, Tversky & Kahneman's Prospect theory, reveals that normative explanation of decisionmaking, based only on principle of maximizing outcomes expected utility, is unsustainable. It also underlines the effect of alternative factors on decision-making. Framing effect relates to an influence that verbal formulation of outcomes has on choosing between certain and risky outcomes; in negative frame people tend to be risk seeking, whereas in positive frame people express risk averse tendencies. Individual decisions are not based on objective probabilities of outcomes, but on subjective probabilities that depend on outcome desirability. Unrealistically pessimistic subjects assign lower probabilities (than the group average to the desired outcomes, while unrealistically optimistic subjects assign higher probabilities (than the group average to the desired outcomes. Experiment was conducted in order to test the presumption that there's a relation between unrealistic optimism and decision-making under risk. We expected optimists to be risk seeking, and pessimist to be risk averse. We also expected such cognitive tendencies, if they should become manifest, to be framing effect resistant. Unrealistic optimism scale was applied, followed by the questionnaire composed of tasks of decision-making under risk. Results within the whole sample, and results of afterwards extracted groups of pessimists and optimists both revealed dominant risk seeking tendency that is resistant to the influence of subjective probabilities as well as to the influence of frame in which the outcome is presented.

  2. Substituted decision making: elder guardianship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leatherman, Martha E; Goethe, Katherine E

    2009-11-01

    The goal of this column is to help experienced clinicians navigate the judicial system when they are confronted with requests for capacity evaluations that involve guardianship (conservatorship). The interface between the growing elderly medical population and increasing requests for substituted decision making is becoming more complex. This column will help practicing psychiatrists understand the medical, legal, and societal factors involved in adult guardianship. Such understanding is necessary in order to effectively perform guardianship evaluations and adequately inform courts, patients, and families about the psychiatric diagnoses central to substituted decision making.

  3. Decision-making: Theory and practice

    OpenAIRE

    SM Turpin; MA Marais

    2004-01-01

    This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, ...

  4. Impaired decision making among morbidly obese adults.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Brogan, Amy

    2011-02-01

    The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) measures affective decision making and has revealed decision making impairments across a wide range of eating disorders. This study aimed to investigate affective decision making in severely obese individuals.

  5. The Perils of Democratic Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Aalbers, H.L.; Whelan, E.; Parise, S.; Vialle, C.

    2016-01-01

    The article focuses on the organizational decision-making management. Topics mentioned include the development of enterprise social software (ESS), the online corporate communities management, and the project management. Also mentioned are the importance of customer services, the bankruptcy management, and the importance of online technology in business.

  6. Moral and Ethical Decision Making: Literature Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-08-08

    exploration and elaboration of both rational and intuitive decision making processes. In addition, emotions may also play an important role in...More specifically, it suggests that both rational and intuitive decision making processes are likely to play an important role in ethical decision ...and military literature related to ethical decision making more generally. Specifically, it suggests that both rational and intuitive decision making

  7. Making Sustainable Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, Steven James; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Dakins, Maxine Ellen

    2003-02-01

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. “Cleanup” includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done - some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches, including: • New ways (mental model) to analyze and visualize the problem, • Awareness of the option to shift strategy or reframe from a single decision to an adaptable network of decisions, and • Improved tactical processes that account for several challenges. These include the following: • Stakeholder values are a more fundamental basis for decision making and keeping than “meeting regulations.” • Late-entry players and future generations will question decisions. • People may resist making “irreversible” decisions. • People need “compelling reasons” to take action in the face of uncertainties. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period—from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept “as is” or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: • Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? • Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? • Resources: what is available to implement

  8. Teaching Rational Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolever, Roberts

    1978-01-01

    Presented is an outline of a college course, "Education in American Society," that focused on teaching students rational decision-making skills while examining current issues in American Education. The outline is followed by student comments, reactions, and evaluations of the course. (JMD)

  9. Decision Making and Revealed Preference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de la Rosa, Leonidas Enrique

    If our decision-making processes are to some extent shaped by evolutionary pressures and our environment is different from that to which we adapted, some of our choices will not be in our best interest. But revealed preference is the only tool that we have so far to conduct a normative analysis...

  10. Individual decision making, group decision making and deliberation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Bojana

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Each of us makes a number of decisions, from the less important to those with far-reaching consequences. As members of different groups, we are also actors of group decision making. In order to make a rational decision, a choice-making procedure must satisfy a number of assumptions (conditions of rationality. In addition, when it comes to group decisions, those procedures should also be “fair.” However, it is not possible to define a procedure of choice-making that would transform individual orders of alternatives based on preferences of perfectly rational individuals into a single social order and still meet conditions of rationality and ethics. The theory of deliberative democracy appeared in response to the impossibility of Social Choice theory. The basic assumption of deliberative democracy is that individuals adjust their preferences taking into account interests of the community. They are open for discussion with other group members and are willing to change their attitudes in order to achieve common interests. Ideally, group members come to an agreement during public discussion (deliberation. Still, this concept cannot completely over­come all the difficulties posed by the theory of social choice. Specifically, there is no solution for strategic and manipulative behavior of individuals. Also, the concept of deliberative democracy faces certain problems particular to this approach, such as, to name but a few, problems with the establishment of equality of participants in the debate and their motivation, as well as problems with the organization of public hearings. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 47009: Evropske integracije i društveno-ekonomske promene privrede Srbije na putu ka EU i br. 179015: Izazovi i perspektive strukturnih promena u Srbiji: Strateški pravci ekonomskog razvoja i usklađivanje sa zahtevima EU

  11. Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

    2003-02-25

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases.

  12. Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

    2003-01-01

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases

  13. NASA Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Stamatelatos, Michael; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher; Youngblood, Robert; Rutledge, Peter; Benjamin, Allan; Williams, Rodney; Smith, Curtis; Guarro, Sergio

    2010-01-01

    This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.

  14. Acceptability, acceptance and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ackerschott, H.

    2002-01-01

    There is a fundamental difference between the acceptability of a civilizatory or societal risk and the acceptability of the decision-making process that leads to a civilizatory or societal risk. The analysis of individual risk decisions - regarding who, executes when which indisputably hazardous, unhealthy or dangerous behaviour under which circumstances - is not helpful in finding solutions for the political decisions at hand in Germany concerning nuclear energy in particular or energy in general. The debt for implementation of any technology, in the sense of making the technology a success in terms of broad acceptance and general utilisation, lies with the particular industry involved. Regardless of the technology, innovation research identifies the implementation phase as most critical to the success of any innovation. In this sense, nuclear technology is at best still an innovation, because the implementation has not yet been completed. Fear and opposition to innovation are ubiquitous. Even the economy - which is often described as 'rational' - is full of this resistance. Innovation has an impact on the pivotal point between stability, the presupposition for the successful execution of decisions already taken and instability, which includes insecurity, but is also necessary for the success of further development. By definition, innovations are beyond our sphere of experience; not at the level of reliability and trust yet to come. Yet they are evaluated via the simplifying heuristics for making decisions proven not only to be necessary and useful, but also accurate in the familiar. The 'settlement of the debt of implementation', the accompanying communication, the decision-making procedures concerning the regulation of averse effects of the technology, but also the tailoring of the new technology or service itself must be directed to appropriate target groups. But the group often aimed at in the nuclear debate, the group, which largely determines political

  15. Implications of Decision Making Research for Decision Support and Displays

    OpenAIRE

    Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

    1998-01-01

    To appear in J. A. Cannon-Bowers & E. Salas (Eds.), Decision Making Under Stress: Implications for Training and Simulation. A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes, and cognitive analysis was conducted of the decision making problems faced by Navy ...

  16. Argumentation and Multi-Agent Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Parsons, S.; Jennings, N. R.

    1998-01-01

    This paper summarises our on-going work on mixed- initiative decision making which extends both classical decision theory and a symbolic theory of decision making based on argumentation to a multi-agent domain.

  17. An ABC for decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Luiz Henrique Costa, E-mail: luiz_mogi@yahoo.com.br [Associacao de Medicina Intensiva Brasileira (AMIB), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Irmandade da Santa Casa de Misericordia de Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Ferreira, Bruna Cortez [Hospital de Base de Sao Jose do Rio Preto, SP (Brazil)

    2015-03-15

    The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw-Hill Education); British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters); Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations. (author)

  18. An ABC for decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Henrique Costa Garcia

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw- Hill Education; British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters; Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations.

  19. An ABC for decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, Luiz Henrique Costa; Ferreira, Bruna Cortez

    2015-01-01

    The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw-Hill Education); British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters); Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations. (author)

  20. Human Factors Influencing Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-07-01

    and Einhom (1991); Zeelenberg et al. (1997). This environmental context also makes it difficult to associate measured personality traits with specific... Zeelenberg and Beattie5 (1997): People are motivated to minimize post-decision regret. As a result people can become risk averse or risk seeking...188-201), Ablex, Norwood NJ, 1993. 5 Zeelenberg M. and J. Beattie. "Consequences of regret aversion 2: additional evidence for effects of feedback on

  1. Pricing decision-making units

    OpenAIRE

    R F&aauml;re; S Grosskopf; D Margaritis

    2013-01-01

    In this note we extend the standard DEA paradigm to address the question of how one can price DMUs (decision-making units). To do this we use an adjoint transformation to the technology generated by these DMUs which links to traditional linear programming theory of the firm and is similar to pricing portfolios in financial markets. We also provide a numerical example illustrating the practicality of the proposed method.

  2. Decision making in geriatric oncology

    OpenAIRE

    Hamaker, M.E.

    2012-01-01

    The studies in this thesis show that for older cancer patients, tailor-made care should be the standard of care, striking the golden mean between undertreatment and overtreatment and fully taking into account the heterogeneity of this patient population. The comprehensive geriatric assessment will provide valuable information about a patient’s overall health status, but its exact place within the decision-making process still remains to be defined.

  3. An Introduction to Solar Decision-Making Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mow, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-09-12

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) offers a variety of models and analysis tools to help decision makers evaluate and make informed decisions about solar projects, policies, and programs. This fact sheet aims to help decision makers determine which NREL tool to use for a given solar project or policy question, depending on its scope.

  4. Decision-Making Based on Emotional Images

    OpenAIRE

    Katahira, Kentaro; Fujimura, Tomomi; Okanoya, Kazuo; Okada, Masato

    2011-01-01

    The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward...

  5. Decision making based on emotional images

    OpenAIRE

    Kentaro eKatahira; Kentaro eKatahira; Kentaro eKatahira; Tomomi eFujimura; Tomomi eFujimura; Kazuo eOkanoya; Kazuo eOkanoya; Kazuo eOkanoya; Masato eOkada; Masato eOkada; Masato eOkada

    2011-01-01

    The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward...

  6. Ethical decision-making, passivity and pharmacy

    OpenAIRE

    Cooper, R.J.; Bissell, P.; Wingfield, J.

    2008-01-01

    Background: Increasing interest in empirical ethics has enhanced understanding of healthcare professionals' ethical problems and attendant decision-making. A four-stage decision-making model involving ethical attention, reasoning, intention and action offers further insights into how more than reasoning alone may contribute to decision-making.\\ud \\ud Aims: To explore how the four-stage model can increase understanding of decision-making in healthcare and describe the decision-making of an und...

  7. Decision-making: Theory and practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SM Turpin

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, and the use of intuition. In terms of the use of decision support technology, the use of self-help tools, such as office software, was clearly favoured.

  8. Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... is concerned with the insufficiency of conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and proposes the use of MCDA as a supplementing tool in order to also capture impacts of a more strategic character in the appraisals and hence make more use of the often large efforts put in the preliminary examinations. MCDA...... and rail to bike transport projects. Two major concerns have been to propose an examination process that can be used in situations where complex decision problems need to be addressed by experts as well as non-experts in decision making, and to identify appropriate assessment techniques to be used...

  9. Couples' fertility decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Stein

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The decision about whether to start a family within a partnership can be viewed as a result of an interaction process. The influence of each of the partners in a couple differs depending on their individual preferences and intentions towards having children. Both of the partners additionally influence each other's fertility intentions and preferences. Objective: We specify, estimate, and test a model that examines the decision about whether to have a child as a choice that is made jointly by the two partners. The transition to the birth of a (further child is investigated with the explicit consideration of both the female partner and the male partner in the partnership context. Methods: An approach for modelling the interactive influences of the two actors in the decision-making process was proposed. A trivariate distribution consisting of both the female and the male partners' fertility intentions, as well as the joint generative decision, was modelled. A multivariate non-linear probit model was chosen and the problem of identification in estimating the relative effects of the actors was resolved. These parameters were used to assess the relative importance of each of the partners' intentions in the decision. We carried out the analysis with MPLUS. Data from the panel of intimate relationships and family dynamics (pairfam was used to estimate the model. Results: The biographical context of each of the partners in relation to their own as well as to their partner's fertility intentions was found to be of considerable importance. Of the significant individual and partner effects, the male partner was shown to have the greater influence. But the female partner was found to have stronger parameters overall and she ultimately has a veto power in the couple's final decision.

  10. Using a group decision support system to make investment prioritisation decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Read, Martin; Gear, Tony; Minkes, Leonard; Irving, Ann

    2013-01-01

    This paper is concerned with how decision making groups involved in making investment prioritisation decisions involving funding of technology and science projects may be supported by a group decision support system (GDSS). While interested in decision outcomes, the primary focus of this paper is the role of a group support system as an aid to developing shared understanding within a group. The paper develops the conceptual framework of decision-making, communication and group support, and de...

  11. Decision making with environmental indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoag, Dana L.; Ascough, James C.; Keske-Handley, C.; Koontz, Lynne; Burk, A.R.

    2005-01-01

    Since Ott's seminal book on environmental indices (1978), the use of indices has expanded into several natural resource disciplines, including ecological studies, environmental policymaking, and agricultural economics. However, despite their increasing use in natural resource disciplines, researchers and public decision makers continue to express concern about validity of these instruments to capture and communicate multidimensional, and sometimes disparate, characteristics of research data and stakeholder interests. Our purpose is to demonstrate how useful indices can be for communicating environmental information to decision makers. We discuss how environmental indices have evolved over four stages: 1) simple; 2) compound multicriteria; 3) the impact matrix and 4) disparate stakeholder management. We provide examples of simple and compound indices that were used by policy decision makers. We then build a framework, called an Impact Matrix (IM), that comprehensively accounts for multiple indices but lets the user decide how to integrate them. The IM was shaped from the concept of a financial risk payoff matrix and applied to ecosystem risk. While the IM offers flexibility, it does not address stakeholder preferences about which index to use. Therefore, the last phase in our evolutionary ladder includes stakeholder indices to specifically address disparate stakeholder preferences. Finally, we assert that an environmental index has the potential to increase resource efficiency, since the number of decision making resources may be reduced, and hence improve upon resource productivity

  12. Distributed Decision Making and Control

    CERN Document Server

    Rantzer, Anders

    2012-01-01

    Distributed Decision Making and Control is a mathematical treatment of relevant problems in distributed control, decision and multiagent systems, The research reported was prompted by the recent rapid development in large-scale networked and embedded systems and communications. One of the main reasons for the growing complexity in such systems is the dynamics introduced by computation and communication delays. Reliability, predictability, and efficient utilization of processing power and network resources are central issues and the new theory and design methods presented here are needed to analyze and optimize the complex interactions that arise between controllers, plants and networks. The text also helps to meet requirements arising from industrial practice for a more systematic approach to the design of distributed control structures and corresponding information interfaces Theory for coordination of many different control units is closely related to economics and game theory network uses being dictated by...

  13. Decision Making in Adults with ADHD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montyla, Timo; Still, Johanna; Gullberg, Stina; Del Missier, Fabio

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: This study examined decision-making competence in ADHD by using multiple decision tasks with varying demands on analytic versus affective processes. Methods: Adults with ADHD and healthy controls completed two tasks of analytic decision making, as measured by the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) battery, and two affective…

  14. [Decision-making and schizophrenia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adida, M; Maurel, M; Kaladjian, A; Fakra, E; Lazerges, P; Da Fonseca, D; Belzeaux, R; Cermolacce, M; Azorin, J-M

    2011-12-01

    Abnormalities involving the prefrontal cortex (PFC) have long been postulated to underpin the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. Investigations of PFC integrity have focused mainly on the dorsolateral PFC (DLPFC) and abnormalities in this region have been extensively documented. However, defects in schizophrenia may extend to other prefrontal regions, including the ventromedial PFC (VMPFC), and evidence of VMPFC abnormalities comes from neuropathological, structural and functional studies. Patients with acquired brain injury to the VMPFC display profound disruption of social behaviour and poor judgment in their personal lives. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was developed to assess decision-making in these neurological cases : it presents a series of 100 choices from four card decks that differ in the distribution of rewarding and punishing outcomes. Whilst healthy volunteers gradually develop a preference for the two "safe" decks over the course of the task, patients with VMPFC lesions maintain a preference for the two "risky" decks which are associated with high reinforcement in the short term, but significant long-term debt. Interestingly, damage to VMPFC may cause both poor performance on the IGT and lack of insight concerning the acquired personality modification. Recently, our group reported a trait-related decisionmaking impairment in the three phases of bipolar disorder. In a PET study, VMPFC dysfunction was shown in bipolar manic patients impaired on a decision-making task and an association between decision-making cognition and lack of insight was described in mania. A quantitative association between grey matter volume of VMPFC and memory impairment was previously reported in schizophrenia. Research suggests that lack of insight is a prevalent feature in schizophrenia patients, like auditory hallucinations, paranoid or bizarre delusions, and disorganized speech and thinking. Because schizophrenia is associated with significant social or occupational

  15. Uncertain multi-attribute decision making methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Zeshui

    2015-01-01

    This book introduces methods for uncertain multi-attribute decision making including uncertain multi-attribute group decision making and their applications to supply chain management, investment decision making, personnel assessment, redesigning products, maintenance services, military system efficiency evaluation. Multi-attribute decision making, also known as multi-objective decision making with finite alternatives, is an important component of modern decision science. The theory and methods of multi-attribute decision making have been extensively applied in engineering, economics, management and military contexts, such as venture capital project evaluation, facility location, bidding, development ranking of industrial sectors and so on. Over the last few decades, great attention has been paid to research on multi-attribute decision making in uncertain settings, due to the increasing complexity and uncertainty of supposedly objective aspects and the fuzziness of human thought. This book can be used as a ref...

  16. Decision conferencing and the International Chernobyl Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French, S.; . Radiation Protection Research Programme); Morrey, M.

    1991-12-01

    As part of the International Chernobyl Project, five decision conferences were held with the Soviet authorities to identify the major factors driving decision making in relation to relocation and other protective measures which are being applied in the affected regions of Byelorussia, Ukraine and the Russian Federation. This report describes the running of those conferences and the conclusions reached from them. (Author)

  17. Simulation of human decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe, J Chris [Sandia Park, NM; Speed, Ann E [Albuquerque, NM; Jordan, Sabina E [Albuquerque, NM; Xavier, Patrick G [Albuquerque, NM

    2008-05-06

    A method for computer emulation of human decision making defines a plurality of concepts related to a domain and a plurality of situations related to the domain, where each situation is a combination of at least two of the concepts. Each concept and situation is represented in the computer as an oscillator output, and each situation and concept oscillator output is distinguishable from all other oscillator outputs. Information is input to the computer representative of detected concepts, and the computer compares the detected concepts with the stored situations to determine if a situation has occurred.

  18. Navigating mega projects through complexity and uncertainty: strategic and adaptive capacity in planning and decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giezen, M.

    2012-01-01

    Over the last few decades, there has been an increasing interest in mega projects from both policy makers and academics. Of particular concern to both has been the seemingly structural time and cost overruns associated with these projects. In response a tendency, especially of policy makers, has

  19. Using evidence to make decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Charles

    2014-12-01

    Bayesian evidence ratios give a very attractive way of comparing models, and being able to quote the odds on a particular model seems a very clear motivation for making a choice. Jeffreys' scale of evidence is often used in the interpretation of evidence ratios. A natural question is, how often will you get it right when you choose on the basis of some threshold value of the evidence ratio? The evidence ratio will be different in different realizations of the data, and its utility can be examined in a Neyman-Pearson like way to see what the trade-offs are between statistical power (the chance of "getting it right") versus the false alarm rate, picking the alternative hypothesis when the null is actually true. I will show some simple examples which show that there can be a surprisingly large range for an evidence ratio under different realizations of the data. It seems best not to simply rely on Jeffrey's scale when decisions have to be taken, but also to examine the probability of taking the "wrong" decision if some evidence ratio is taken to be decisive. Interestingly, Turing knew this and applied it during WWII, although (like much else) he did not publish it.

  20. The nursing contribution to ethical decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Dinten-Schmid

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the neonatal care units of the University Hospitals of Zurich and Bern, the nurse´s role in ethical decision-making is well established. However, nurses often reported uncertainty with regard to introducing the premature infant’s situation from the nursing perspective in ethics rounds. Aims: To empower neonatal nurses in fulfilling their role in the multiprofessional decision-making process, we performed a practice development project. On the basis of the Iowa model we developed a checklist for presenting the nursing history of premature infants in an ethically competent and responsible way. Conclusions: The ‘checklist for nursing assessment in the context of ethical decision-making’, equips nurses for their professional contribution to ethics rounds, making them better prepared to present the nursing perspective in a structured and thorough manner. Implications for practice: The Iowa model supports practice development even with limited data availability The instrument invigorates the neonatal nurse´s role in the multiprofessional ethical decision-making process It is crucial to involve peers in practice development

  1. Tactical decision making under stress (TADMUS) decision support system

    OpenAIRE

    Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

    1996-01-01

    A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes and cognitive analysis of the decision making problems faced by Navy tactical officers in a shipboard Combat Information Center. Baseline testing in high intensity, peace keeping, littoral scenarios indicated...

  2. 高速公路BOT项目特许权期决策研究%Decision-Making on the Concession Term for Highway BOT Project

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘广平; 赵文忠; 陈立文

    2015-01-01

    How to scientifically determine the concession period is one of the focus problems for the project companies and government departments. In this paper,taking into account the average annual minimum expected return of the project company and the retained earning of the government department,compares two variables of the concession term(Tc)and the time point of traffic saturation(Tb),constructs the decision-making models of concession term for highway BOT project in two conditions of Tc≥Tb and Tcdecision-making model of concession term.%科学地确定高速公路BOT项目特许权期,是项目公司和政府部门关注的焦点之一。在兼顾项目公司年均最低期望收益和政府部门保留收益的前提下,比较特许权期(Tc)与交通量饱和时对应的时点(T b),构建Tc≥Tb和Tc<Tb两种情况下的高速公路BOT项目的特许权期决策模型。通过计算比较以获得项目的收费期和最优特许权期。最后以算例验证决策模型的科学性和有效性。

  3. Toward a Psychology of Surrogate Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tunney, Richard J; Ziegler, Fenja V

    2015-11-01

    In everyday life, many of the decisions that we make are made on behalf of other people. A growing body of research suggests that we often, but not always, make different decisions on behalf of other people than the other person would choose. This is problematic in the practical case of legally designated surrogate decision makers, who may not meet the substituted judgment standard. Here, we review evidence from studies of surrogate decision making and examine the extent to which surrogate decision making accurately predicts the recipient's wishes, or if it is an incomplete or distorted application of the surrogate's own decision-making processes. We find no existing domain-general model of surrogate decision making. We propose a framework by which surrogate decision making can be assessed and a novel domain-general theory as a unifying explanatory concept for surrogate decisions. © The Author(s) 2015.

  4. Viewpoint: Decision-making in committees

    OpenAIRE

    Li Hao; Wing Suen

    2009-01-01

    This article reviews recent developments in the theory of committee decision-making. A committee consists of self-interested members who make a public decision by aggregating imperfect information dispersed among them according to a pre-specified decision rule. We focus on costly information acquisition, strategic information aggregation, and rules and processes that enhance the quality of the committee decision. Seeming inefficiencies of the committee decision-making process such as over-cau...

  5. The decision-making process in dealing with populations living in areas contaminated by the Chernobyl accident. The ETHOS project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heriard-Dubreuil, G.; Schneider, T.

    1998-01-01

    Experience from the Chernobyl accident revealed strong disturbance in social life and stress phenomenon in the population living in the contaminated territories. The ETHOS project (founded by the radiation protection research programme of the European Commission-DG XII) has initiated an alternative approach of the rehabilitation of living conditions in the contaminated territories of the CIS in the post-accident context of Chernobyl. This project started at the beginning of 1996 and is implemented in the Republic of Belarus. Its main goal is to create the conditions for the inhabitants of contaminated territories to reconstruct their global quality of life. The main features of the methodological approach of the ETHOS project in the village of Olmany in the district of Stolyn (Brest region) since March 1996 are presented, and its implementation and first results are discussed. (R.P.)

  6. IT Project Evaluation and Investment Decision

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄东兵; 张世英

    2004-01-01

    There are many kinds of real options,which are valuable,in each phase of the lifetime of an information technology(IT)project.However,in the current IT investment decision theory,real options that embedded in IT projects are not considered. In this paper, the process of IT project decision and implementation is fully analyzed, the real options that may be embedded in an IT project are identified, and a real option analysis (ROA) method is proposed for evaluation of an IT project under uncertain business environment. ROA employs Black-Scholes expansion model and cancels the assumption that the cost of project is certain. The numerical example manifests that the ROA can better evaluate IT project and select the IT investment alternative. Finally, a road map is provided to help selecting the suitable evaluation method to make IT investment decision.

  7. Money Related Decommissioning and Funding Decision Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodman, Lynne S.

    2008-01-01

    'Money makes the world go round', as the song says. It definitely influences decommissioning decision-making and financial assurance for future decommissioning. This paper will address two money-related decommissioning topics. The first is the evaluation of whether to continue or to halt decommissioning activities at Fermi 1. The second is maintaining adequacy of financial assurance for future decommissioning of operating plants. Decommissioning costs considerable money and costs are often higher than originally estimated. If costs increase significantly and decommissioning is not well funded, decommissioning activities may be deferred. Several decommissioning projects have been deferred when decision-makers determined future spending is preferable than current spending, or when costs have risen significantly. Decommissioning activity timing is being reevaluated for the Fermi 1 project. Assumptions for waste cost-escalation significantly impact the decision being made this year on the Fermi 1 decommissioning project. They also have a major impact on the estimated costs for decommissioning currently operating plants. Adequately funding full decommissioning during plant operation will ensure that the users who receive the benefit pay the full price of the nuclear-generated electricity. Funding throughout operation also will better ensure that money is available following shutdown to allow decommissioning to be conducted without need for additional funds

  8. Command Decision-Making: Experience Counts

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wolgast, Kelly A

    2005-01-01

    Decision-making is the mainstay of military leadership and command. Due to the changed nature of the current military environment, military commanders can no longer rely solely on the traditional Military Decision-making Process (MDMP...

  9. Evaluating Utility in Diagnostic Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harber, Jean R.

    1981-01-01

    The utility of the procedures special educators apply in making decisions about the identification of handicapped individuals has not been thoroughly studied. The paper examines the utility of diagnostic decision making from the perspective of receiver operating curve analysis. (Author)

  10. Intra project team disagreement, conflict communications, and team performance in cross-functional new product teams: A decision-making quality perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsun Jin Chang

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops and examines a model of the antecedents and consequences of decision-making comprehensiveness during the new product development process. This model firstly suggests a concave relationship between intrateam task disagreement and decision-making comprehensiveness. It also conjectures that conflict communications influence the effectiveness of decision-making comprehensiveness on new product teams’ performance. An empirical test of the proposed framework involves a survey of 220 cross-functional new product teams. The findings show that an inverse U-shaped relationship exists between intrateam task disagreement and decision-making comprehensiveness. It also indicates that collaborative communication has a negative effect on innovativeness, whereas contentious communication adversely affects constraint adherence. However, decision-making comprehensiveness partially moderates the relationships between conflict communications and team performance. Some managerial and research implications of the findings were also discussed in this study.

  11. Fisher-Level Decision Making to Participate in Fisheries Improvement Projects (FIPs) for Yellowfin Tuna in the Philippines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tolentino-Zondervan, F.; Berentsen, P.B.M.; Bush, S.R.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2016-01-01

    This study identifies the capabilities needed by small-scale fishers to participate in Fishery Improvement Projects (FIPs) for yellowfin tuna in the Philippines. The current literature provides little empirical evidence on how different models, or types of FIPs, influence the participation of

  12. Conflicts and cooperation in Brownfield redevelopment projects : application of conjoint analysis and game theory to model strategic decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blokhuis, E.G.J.; Snijders, C.C.P.; Han, Q.; Schaefer, W.F.

    2012-01-01

    Redevelopment of brownfields is placed high on the political agendas in many countries. However, brownfield redevelopment projects are often problematic, and the frequent occurrence of conflicts between involved and interdependent stakeholders is directly related to this. To date, there is no

  13. Affective Decision Making and the Ellsberg Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Anat Bracha; Donald J. Brown

    2008-01-01

    Affective decision-making is a strategic model of choice under risk and uncertainty where we posit two cognitive processes -- the "rational" and the "emotional" process. Observed choice is the result of equilibrium in this intrapersonal game. As an example, we present applications of affective decision-making in insurance markets, where the risk perceptions of consumers are endogenous. We derive the axiomatic foundation of affective decision making, and show that affective decision making is ...

  14. Making Decisions by Analytical Chemistry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens Enevold Thaulov

    . These discrepancies are very unfortunate because erroneous conclusions may arise from an otherwise meticulous and dedicated effort of research staff. This may eventually lead to unreliable conclusions thus jeopardizing investigations of environmental monitoring, climate changes, food safety, clinical chemistry......It has been long recognized that results of analytical chemistry are not flawless, owing to the fact that professional laboratories and research laboratories analysing the same type of samples by the same type of instruments are likely to obtain significantly different results. The European......, forensics and other fields of science where analytical chemistry is the key instrument of decision making. In order to elucidate the potential origin of the statistical variations found among laboratories, a major program was undertaken including several analytical technologies where the purpose...

  15. Rule-based decision making model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sirola, Miki

    1998-01-01

    A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)

  16. Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaming, Susan C.

    2007-12-01

    The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into

  17. Learning to Make Decisions Through Constructive Controversy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tjosvold, Dean

    Students must make decisions about their lifestyle, future careers, academic pursuits, and classroom and school issues. Learning to make effective decisions for themselves and for society is an important aspect of competence. They can learn decision making through interacting and solving problems with others. A central ingredient for successful…

  18. Modeling Human Elements of Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-06-01

    include factors such as personality, emotion , and level of expertise, which vary from individual to individual. The process of decision - making during... rational choice theories such as utility theory, to more descriptive psychological models that focus more on the process of decision - making ...descriptive nature, they provide a more realistic representation of human decision - making than the rationally based models. However these models do

  19. Role of affect in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandyopadhyay, Debarati; Pammi, V S Chandrasekhar; Srinivasan, Narayanan

    2013-01-01

    Emotion plays a major role in influencing our everyday cognitive and behavioral functions, including decision making. We introduce different ways in which emotions are characterized in terms of the way they influence or elicited by decision making. This chapter discusses different theories that have been proposed to explain the role of emotions in judgment and decision making. We also discuss incidental emotional influences, both long-duration influences like mood and short-duration influences by emotional context present prior to or during decision making. We present and discuss results from a study with emotional pictures presented prior to decision making and how that influences both decision processes and postdecision experience as a function of uncertainty. We conclude with a summary of the work on emotions and decision making in the context of decision-making theories and our work on incidental emotions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Collective Decision Making as the Actualization of Decision Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Ule

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents some characteristics and dilemmas of collective decision making. Collective decision making could be presented as the process of successive crystallization of dominant alternatives under the influence of different decision contexts from primary given decision potentials. This process is presented as the many-phased process of the acting of contextually dependent “energizing factors” of the collective decision making on the “attractiveness matrix” of outcomes of collective decisions. The attractiveness matrix determines the attractiveness for each alternative of decision, and the most attractive alternative in the given situation presents the rational decision in the given situation. In the final phase of decision making holds a context which gets a simplified attractiveness matrix. It corresponds to the common decision for one of the alternatives.

  1. Making energy projects happen

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilliland, S.F.; Utt, W.P.; Neff, N.T.

    1988-01-01

    In today's business environment, control of energy cost is a major challenge for businesses, institutions, and governmental agencies. New technologies are available to reduce energy costs through cogeneration, cheaper fuels, or other means. Often it is not possible for a Plant Owner to undertake such a project, regardless of how desirable it may be. The authors of this paper show that by applying the principles of Project Structuring and developing a comprehensive project team, the desired reduction in energy costs can be achieved. Various examples are cited, and guidelines are given for an Owner to use

  2. Neuroanatomical basis for recognition primed decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Darren

    2013-01-01

    Effective decision making under time constraints is often overlooked in medical decision making. The recognition primed decision making (RPDM) model was developed by Gary Klein based on previous recognized situations to develop a satisfactory solution to the current problem. Bayes Theorem is the most popular decision making model in medicine but is limited by the need for adequate time to consider all probabilities. Unlike other decision making models, there is a potential neurobiological basis for RPDM. This model has significant implication for health informatics and medical education.

  3. Influence of portofolio management in decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rolney Baptestone

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to demonstrate how portfolio management influences the decision-making process in the projects of a financial organization. And to achieve this goal was used the single case study method. In order to reach this goal, the study began by means of bibliometric research on the subject of portfolio management and subsequent bibliographic research on the theme, decision making. Next, the relationships between portfolio management and decision making were studied. The results of the data collected confirmed the relationship between "the use of the project identification process in portfolio management to influence decision making" in order to add value to the business. It is also possible to demonstrate moderately that "the use of criteria for project selection influences the consequences of decision making", helping in the strategic management of the organization. One of the academic contributions was to note a migration of the portfolio management process, such as a tool that only controls the projects that will compose the portfolio of an organization, for a process that aims at a direct alignment with the strategic management of the organization. Regarding the practical implications, it was verified the importance of portfolio analysis for decision making, to the detriment of the evaluation of only one project. Taking into account the profitability and the return on investment of the projects, as the most important aspects for a decision making.

  4. Testing Decision Rules for Multiattribute Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidl, C.; Traub, S.

    1996-01-01

    This paper investigates the existence of an editing phase and studies the com- pliance of subjects' behaviour with the most popular multiattribute decision rules. We observed that our data comply well with the existence of an editing phase, at least if we allow for a natural error rate of some 25%.

  5. The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making: An Exploratory ... lead to the failure to achieve projected performance. ... the use of multiple regression analysis model to forecast the stock market activities of each sector ... making, and that these decisions must be congruent with the company strategy.

  6. Entrepreneurs` Cognitive and Decision Making Styles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Motvaseli

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study is to explore the relation between decision-making styles which are measured by the General decision-making style (GDMS test and information processing styles which are often termed cognitive styles and are, in this study, measured by Cognitive Style Inventory. The authors directed a survey research on 162 Iranian students. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to measure the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles. The authors found that cognitive styles have a positive impact on decision-making styles. In spite of the abundant research on factors that affect decision-making styles, few researches have tested the relationship between cognitive styles and decision-making styles. This study examines the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles in Iran. This study, like most research paper studies, cannot easily be generalized. Furthermore, the results of this study could be affected by economic conditions.

  7. Green Decision Making: How Systemic Planning can support Strategic Decision Making for Sustainable Transport Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen

    for Strategic Management. The book was published in 2012 by Springer-Verlag, London, as a research monograph in the publisher’s series about Decision Engineering. The intention behind this new book – with its focus upon ‘greening’ of strategic decisions – is to provide a general and less technical description......The book is based on my participation in the SUSTAIN research project 2012-2017 about National Sustainable Transport Planning funded by the Danish Research Council (Innovationsfonden). Many of the issues treated here have a backdrop in my book Complex Strategic Choices – Applying Systemic Planning...... to this application area. In fact a company relocation decision case has been used to introduce the potential of SP as regards providing decision support for strategic decision making. A main concern in this presentation of SP, which deviates from the Springer book referred to above, is to highlight that ‘greening...

  8. Ensuring comparability of data generated by multiple analytical laboratories for environmental decision making at the Fernald Environmental Management Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutton, C.; Campbell, B.A.; Danahy, R.J.; Dugan, T.A.; Tomlinson, F.K.

    1994-01-01

    The Fernald Environmental Management Project is a US Department of Energy (DOE)-owned facility located 17 miles northwest of Cincinnati, Ohio. From 1952 until 1989, the Fernald site provided high-purity uranium metal products to support US defense programs. In 1989 the mission of Fernald changed from one of uranium production to one of environmental restoration. At Fernald, multiple functional programs require analytical data. Inorganic and organic data for these programs are currently generated by seven laboratories, while radiochemical data are being obtained from six laboratories. Quality Assurance (QA) and Quality Control (QC) programs have been established to help ensure comparability of data generated by multiple laboratories at different times. The quality assurance program for organic and inorganic measurements specifies which analytical methodologies and sample preparation procedures are to be used based on analyte class, sample matrix, and data quality requirements. In contrast, performance specifications have been established for radiochemical analyses. A blind performance evaluation program for all laboratories, both on-site and subcontracted commercial laboratories, provides continuous feedback on data quality. The necessity for subcontractor laboratories to participate in the performance evaluation program is a contractual requirement. Similarly, subcontract laboratories are contractually required to generate data which meet radiochemical performance specifications. The Fernald on-site laboratory must also fulfill these requirements

  9. Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

    2007-01-01

    Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

  10. Changing Times, Complex Decisions: Presidential Values and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hornak, Anne M.; Garza Mitchell, Regina L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this article is to delve more deeply into the thought processes of the key decision makers at community colleges and understand how they make decisions. Specifically, this article focuses on the role of the community college president's personal values in decision making. Method: We conducted interviews with 13…

  11. The Self in Decision Making and Decision Implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Lee Roy; Mitchell, Terence R.

    Since the early 1950's the principal prescriptive model in the psychological study of decision making has been maximization of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU). This SEU maximization has come to be regarded as a description of how people go about making decisions. However, while observed decision processes sometimes resemble the SEU model,…

  12. How Firms Make Boundary Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dobrajska, Magdalena; Billinger, Stephan; Becker, Markus

    2014-01-01

    We report findings from an analysis of 234 firm boundary decisions that a manufacturing firm has made during a 10 year period. Extensive interviews with all major decision makers located both at the headquarters and subsidiaries allow us to examine (a) who was involved in each boundary decision...

  13. Applications of decision theory to test-based decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    1987-01-01

    The use of Bayesian decision theory to solve problems in test-based decision making is discussed. Four basic decision problems are distinguished: (1) selection; (2) mastery; (3) placement; and (4) classification, the situation where each treatment has its own criterion. Each type of decision can be

  14. Modelling decision-making by pilots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Nicholas J. M.

    1993-01-01

    Our scientific goal is to understand the process of human decision-making. Specifically, a model of human decision-making in piloting modern commercial aircraft which prescribes optimal behavior, and against which we can measure human sub-optimality is sought. This model should help us understand such diverse aspects of piloting as strategic decision-making, and the implicit decisions involved in attention allocation. Our engineering goal is to provide design specifications for (1) better computer-based decision-aids, and (2) better training programs for the human pilot (or human decision-maker, DM).

  15. Decision making in midwifery: rationality and intuition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhauer, Suyai

    2015-04-01

    Decision making in midwifery is a complex process that shapes and underpins clinical practice and determines, to a large extent, the quality of care. Effective decision making and professional accountability are central to clinical governance, and being able.to justify all decisions is a professional and legal requirement. At the same time, there is an emphasis in midwifery on shared decision making, and keeping women at the centre of their care, and research reveals that feelings of choice, control and autonomy are central to a positive birth experience. However the extent to which decisions are really shared and care truly woman-centred is debatable and affected by environment and culture. Using a case study of a decision made in clinical practice around amniotomy, this article explores the role of the intuitive thinking system in midwifery decision making, and highlights the importance of involving women in the decision making process.

  16. GROUPS DECISION MAKING WITHIN THE ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anca Stan

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In a highly global market, organizations that have the ability to analyze and rapidly respond to the constantly changing marketplace will have the greatest chance of remaining competitive and profitable. Group decision making is the process of arriving at a judgment based upon the feedback of multiple individuals. Due to the importance of the group decision making process, decision making models can be used to establish a systematic means of developing effective group decision making. Once a decision has been made, the members of the group should be willing to accept it and support its implementations.

  17. Structure and Style in Career Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kortas, Linda; And Others

    1992-01-01

    The Career Decision Scale, Assessment of Career Decision Making, and Cognitive Differentiation Grid were administered to 598 community college students. Results indicated a relationship between decision-making styles and vocational construct structure. Poorly developed vocational schemas predispose individuals toward dependent and intuitive…

  18. School Counselors and Ethical Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Dana R.

    2016-01-01

    Students and their parents/guardians rely on school counselors to provide counseling services based on ethically sound principles. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence about what influences a school counselor's ethical decision making. Ethical decision making for this study was defined as the degree to which decisions pertaining to…

  19. Causal knowledge and reasoning in decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagmayer, Y.; Witteman, C.L.M.

    2017-01-01

    Normative causal decision theories argue that people should use their causal knowledge in decision making. Based on these ideas, we argue that causal knowledge and reasoning may support and thereby potentially improve decision making based on expected outcomes, narratives, and even cues. We will

  20. Shared Decision Making for Better Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brost, Paul

    2000-01-01

    Delegating decision making to those closest to implementation can result in better decisions, more support for improvement initiatives, and increased student performance. Shared decision making depends on capable school leadership, a professional community, instructional guidance mechanisms, knowledge and skills, information sharing, power, and…

  1. Decision-making: Theory and Practice

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Turpin, SM

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available of decision support technology. Much variation was found in people’s personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information...

  2. Decision problems in management of construction projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szafranko, E.

    2017-10-01

    In a construction business, one must oftentimes make decisions during all stages of a building process, from planning a new construction project through its execution to the stage of using a ready structure. As a rule, the decision making process is made more complicated due to certain conditions specific for civil engineering. With such diverse decision situations, it is recommended to apply various decision making support methods. Both, literature and hands-on experience suggest several methods based on analytical and computational procedures, some less and some more complex. This article presents the methods which can be helpful in supporting decision making processes in the management of civil engineering projects. These are multi-criteria methods, such as MCE, AHP or indicator methods. Because the methods have different advantages and disadvantages, whereas decision situations have their own specific nature, a brief summary of the methods alongside some recommendations regarding their practical applications has been given at the end of the paper. The main aim of this article is to review the methods of decision support and their analysis for possible use in the construction industry.

  3. Climate Information Needs for Financial Decision Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Higgins, Paul [American Meteorological Society, Washington, DC (United States)

    2013-11-19

    ) Analyze existing climate assessments and translate projected impacts into possible, probable, and effectively certain impacts. 4) Improve climate projections with respect to precipitation (timing, amount, and intensity), extreme events, and tails of probability distributions (i.e., low-probability but high-consequence events). 5) Increase spatial resolution of climate projections in order to provide climate information at the scale most relevant to financial investments. 6) Improve projections of the societal consequences of climate impacts through integrated assessments of physical, natural, and social sciences. 7) Create a user-friendly information repository and portal that provides easy access to information relevant to financial decision making. 8) Create and maintain opportunities to bring together financial decision makers, scientists, and service providers. Near-term financial decisions have long-term implications for the United States’ social and economic well-being that depend, in part, on climate variability and change. Investments will be most successful, and will advance the interests of society most effectively, if they are grounded in the best available knowledge & understanding.

  4. A mapping of design decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Claus Thorp; Andreasen, Mogens Myrup

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we present the decision score, which is a model of decision-making seen in the engineering designer's perspective of the design process dynamics, where a decision has multiple objects and where it is based on earlier decisions, prediction of consequences and design process progressi...

  5. Assessment of regions priority for implementation of solar projects in Iran: New application of a hybrid multi-criteria decision making approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vafaeipour, Majid; Hashemkhani Zolfani, Sarfaraz; Morshed Varzandeh, Mohammad Hossein; Derakhti, Arman; Keshavarz Eshkalag, Mahsa

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The economic, environmental, technical, social and risk criteria are considered. • Prioritization of regions for construction of solar power plants in Iran is assessed. • A hybrid MCDM approach ranked 25 scattered cities all around the country. • SWARA ranked the identified criteria, and WASPAS prioritized the alternatives. • Considering the ranked cities, a comprehensive GIS map of the country is provided. - Abstract: One of the promising ways to shift towards sustainable development has been the utilization of solar energy worldwide. Based on its geographical specifications, Iran enjoys high solar potential to implement feasible solar energy projects. However, to obtain the best productivity and payback, identification and prioritization of suitable regions for construction of expensive solar power plants is a delicate issue. In contrast with common assumptions, identifying appropriate geographical regions for implementation of such projects is not only associated with the amount of received solar radiation, but also there are many economic, environmental, technical, social and risk criteria (and their relevant sub-criteria) which must be taken into account. To address the complicated nature of the prioritization challenge caused by existence of various indicators, this paper applies a hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approach and prioritizes 25 scattered cities all around the country for implementation of future solar power plants. For this, both quantitative and qualitative effective indicators are identified to be considered as the inputs to the utilized hybrid model. The Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA, proposed in 2010) method is employed to rank the identified criteria, and the Weighted Aggregates Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS, proposed in 2012) is applied to evaluate and prioritize the alternatives (cities) where Yazd city ranked first. Eventually via considering the ranked cities, a comprehensive GIS

  6. Creating Dynamically Downscaled Seasonal Climate Forecast and Climate Change Projection Information for the North American Monsoon Region Suitable for Decision Making Purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, C. L.; Dominguez, F.; Chang, H.

    2010-12-01

    Current seasonal climate forecasts and climate change projections of the North American monsoon are based on the use of course-scale information from a general circulation model. The global models, however, have substantial difficulty in resolving the regional scale forcing mechanisms of precipitation. This is especially true during the period of the North American Monsoon in the warm season. Precipitation is driven primarily due to the diurnal cycle of convection, and this process cannot be resolve in coarse-resolution global models that have a relatively poor representation of terrain. Though statistical downscaling may offer a relatively expedient method to generate information more appropriate for the regional scale, and is already being used in the resource decision making processes in the Southwest U.S., its main drawback is that it cannot account for a non-stationary climate. Here we demonstrate the use of a regional climate model, specifically the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, for dynamical downscaling of the North American Monsoon. To drive the WRF simulations, we use retrospective reforecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model, the operational model used at the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, and three select “well performing” IPCC AR 4 models for the A2 emission scenario. Though relatively computationally expensive, the use of WRF as a regional climate model in this way adds substantial value in the representation of the North American Monsoon. In both cases, the regional climate model captures a fairly realistic and reasonable monsoon, where none exists in the driving global model, and captures the dominant modes of precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Long-term precipitation variability and trends in these simulations is considered via the standardized precipitation index (SPI), a commonly used metric to characterize long-term drought. Dynamically

  7. How do small groups make decisions?

    OpenAIRE

    Chahine, Saad; Cristancho, Sayra; Padgett, Jessica; Lingard, Lorelei

    2017-01-01

    In the competency-based medical education (CBME) approach, clinical competency committees are responsible for making decisions about trainees? competence. However, we currently lack a?theoretical model for group decision-making to inform this emerging assessment phenomenon. This paper proposes an organizing framework to study and guide the decision-making processes of clinical competency committees. This is an explanatory, non-exhaustive review, tailored to identify relevant theoretical and e...

  8. Understanding Optimal Decision-making in Wargaming

    OpenAIRE

    Nesbitt, P; Kennedy, Q; Alt, JK; Fricker, RD; Whitaker, L; Yang, J; Appleget, JA; Huston, J; Patton, S

    2013-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. This research aims to gain insight into optimal wargaming decision-making mechanisms using neurophysiological measures by investigating whether brain activation and visual scan patterns predict attention, perception, and/or decision-making errors through human-in-the-loop wargaming simulation experiments. We investigate whether brain activity and visual scan patterns can explain optimal wargaming decision making and its devel...

  9. Decision-making in abnormal radiological situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pretre, S.

    1998-01-01

    General problems associated with social impacts of radiology and decision making is discussed, as the main topics of the meeting. The problem of population is discussed living in areas contaminates with radioactive substances resulting from a major accident or from pest practices. This situation needs decision making process for initiating actions like relocation, resettlement or large-scale decontamination. The roles of various participants in this decision making process and in the communication with the public are considered. (R.P.)

  10. Cognitive characteristics affecting rational decision making style

    OpenAIRE

    Rosenberg, Charlotte

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Decision making is one of the most important and frequent tasks among managers and employees in an organization. Knowledge about more stable cognitive characteristics underlying decision making styles has been requested. This study aimed to examine the relationship between rational decision making style, cognitive style, self efficacy and locus of control. Possible interaction effects in relation to gender were also analyzed. 186 employees at the Ministry of Defence were surveyed...

  11. Arational heuristic model of economic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2010-01-01

    The article discuss the limits of both the rational actor and the behavioral paradigms in explaining and guiding innovative decision making and outlines a model of economic decision making that in the course of being 'heuristic' (research and discovery oriented) is also 'rational' (in the broad sense of following correct reasoning and scientific methods, non 'biasing'). The model specifies a set of 'rational heuristics' for innovative decision making, for the various sub-processes of problem ...

  12. Complex Decision Making Theory and Practice

    CERN Document Server

    Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan; Spector, J Michael

    2007-01-01

    The increasingly complex environment of today's world, characterized by technological innovation and global communication, generates myriads of possible and actual interactions while limited physical and intellectual resources severely impinge on decision makers, be it in the public or private domains. At the core of the decision-making process is the need for quality information that allows the decision maker to better assess the impact of decisions in terms of outcomes, nonlinear feedback processes and time delays on the performance of the complex system invoked. This volume is a timely review on the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic envrionments and of the various modeling approaches used. The book consists of five parts, each composed of several chapters: I: Complex Decision Making: Concepts, Theories and Empirical Evidence II: Tools and Techniques for Decision Making in Complex Environments and Systems III: System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling IV:...

  13. Computational Complexity and Human Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossaerts, Peter; Murawski, Carsten

    2017-12-01

    The rationality principle postulates that decision-makers always choose the best action available to them. It underlies most modern theories of decision-making. The principle does not take into account the difficulty of finding the best option. Here, we propose that computational complexity theory (CCT) provides a framework for defining and quantifying the difficulty of decisions. We review evidence showing that human decision-making is affected by computational complexity. Building on this evidence, we argue that most models of decision-making, and metacognition, are intractable from a computational perspective. To be plausible, future theories of decision-making will need to take into account both the resources required for implementing the computations implied by the theory, and the resource constraints imposed on the decision-maker by biology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Cognitive processes in anesthesiology decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiegler, Marjorie Podraza; Tung, Avery

    2014-01-01

    The quality and safety of health care are under increasing scrutiny. Recent studies suggest that medical errors, practice variability, and guideline noncompliance are common, and that cognitive error contributes significantly to delayed or incorrect diagnoses. These observations have increased interest in understanding decision-making psychology.Many nonrational (i.e., not purely based in statistics) cognitive factors influence medical decisions and may lead to error. The most well-studied include heuristics, preferences for certainty, overconfidence, affective (emotional) influences, memory distortions, bias, and social forces such as fairness or blame.Although the extent to which such cognitive processes play a role in anesthesia practice is unknown, anesthesia care frequently requires rapid, complex decisions that are most susceptible to decision errors. This review will examine current theories of human decision behavior, identify effects of nonrational cognitive processes on decision making, describe characteristic anesthesia decisions in this context, and suggest strategies to improve decision making.

  15. Supporting Informed Decision Making in Prevention of Prostate Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantino MARTINS

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Identifying and making the correct decision on the best health treatment or screening test option can become a difficult task. Therefore is important that the patients get all types of information appropriate to manage their health. Decision aids can be very useful when there is more than one reasonable option about a treatment or uncertain associated with screening tests. The decision aids tools help people to understand their clinical condition, through the description of the different options available. The purpose of this paper is to present the project “Supporting Informed Decision Making In Prevention of Prostate Cancer” (SIDEMP. This project is focused on the creation of a Web-based decision platform specifically directed to screening prostate cancer, that will support the patient in the process of making an informed decision

  16. Decision-making on olympic urban development - multi-actor decision support tool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heurkens, E.W.T.M.

    Subject of study is the possible organisation of the Olympic Games of 2028 in the Netherlands, as seen from an urban development viewpoint. The project focuses on the decision-making process in the initiative phase. Aim of the project is the development of a decision support tool for the complex,

  17. Decision making uncertainty, imperfection, deliberation and scalability

    CERN Document Server

    Kárný, Miroslav; Wolpert, David

    2015-01-01

    This volume focuses on uncovering the fundamental forces underlying dynamic decision making among multiple interacting, imperfect and selfish decision makers. The chapters are written by leading experts from different disciplines, all considering the many sources of imperfection in decision making, and always with an eye to decreasing the myriad discrepancies between theory and real world human decision making. Topics addressed include uncertainty, deliberation cost and the complexity arising from the inherent large computational scale of decision making in these systems. In particular, analyses and experiments are presented which concern: • task allocation to maximize “the wisdom of the crowd”; • design of a society of “edutainment” robots who account for one anothers’ emotional states; • recognizing and counteracting seemingly non-rational human decision making; • coping with extreme scale when learning causality in networks; • efficiently incorporating expert knowledge in personalized...

  18. Decision-Making under Criteria Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kureychik, V. M.; Safronenkova, I. B.

    2018-05-01

    Uncertainty is an essential part of a decision-making procedure. The paper deals with the problem of decision-making under criteria uncertainty. In this context, decision-making under uncertainty, types and conditions of uncertainty were examined. The decision-making problem under uncertainty was formalized. A modification of the mathematical decision support method under uncertainty via ontologies was proposed. A critical distinction of the developed method is ontology usage as its base elements. The goal of this work is a development of a decision-making method under criteria uncertainty with the use of ontologies in the area of multilayer board designing. This method is oriented to improvement of technical-economic values of the examined domain.

  19. Computer Graphics and Administrative Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yost, Michael

    1984-01-01

    Reduction in prices now makes it possible for almost any institution to use computer graphics for administrative decision making and research. Current and potential uses of computer graphics in these two areas are discussed. (JN)

  20. Comparing perceptual and preferential decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutilh, Gilles; Rieskamp, Jörg

    2016-06-01

    Perceptual and preferential decision making have been studied largely in isolation. Perceptual decisions are considered to be at a non-deliberative cognitive level and have an outside criterion that defines the quality of decisions. Preferential decisions are considered to be at a higher cognitive level and the quality of decisions depend on the decision maker's subjective goals. Besides these crucial differences, both types of decisions also have in common that uncertain information about the choice situation has to be processed before a decision can be made. The present work aims to acknowledge the commonalities of both types of decision making to lay bare the crucial differences. For this aim we examine perceptual and preferential decisions with a novel choice paradigm that uses the identical stimulus material for both types of decisions. This paradigm allows us to model the decisions and response times of both types of decisions with the same sequential sampling model, the drift diffusion model. The results illustrate that the different incentive structure in both types of tasks changes people's behavior so that they process information more efficiently and respond more cautiously in the perceptual as compared to the preferential task. These findings set out a perspective for further integration of perceptual and preferential decision making in a single ramework.

  1. Risky Decision Making in Juvenile Myoclonic Epilepsy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iris Unterberger

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available It is not known whether patients with juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME differ from healthy people in decision making under risk, i.e., when the decision-making context offers explicit information about options, probabilities, and consequences already from the beginning. In this study, we adopted the Game of Dice Task-Double to investigate decision making under risk in a group of 36 patients with JME (mean age 25.25/SD 5.29 years and a group of 38 healthy controls (mean age 26.03/SD 4.84 years. Participants also underwent a comprehensive neuropsychological assessment focused on frontal executive functions. Significant group differences were found in tests of psychomotor speed and divided attention, with the patients scoring lower than the controls. Importantly, patients made risky decisions more frequently than controls. In the patient group, poor decision making was associated with poor executive control, poor response inhibition, and a short interval since the last seizure episode. Executive control and response inhibition could predict 42% of variance in the frequency of risky decisions. This study indicates that patients with JME with poorer executive functions are more likely to make risky decisions than healthy controls. Decision making under risk is of major importance in every-day life, especially with regard to treatment decisions and adherence to long-term medical therapy. Since even a single disadvantageous decision may have long-lasting consequences, this finding is of high relevance.

  2. Risky Decision Making in Juvenile Myoclonic Epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unterberger, Iris; Zamarian, Laura; Prieschl, Manuela; Bergmann, Melanie; Walser, Gerald; Luef, Gerhard; Javor, Andrija; Ransmayr, Gerhard; Delazer, Margarete

    2018-01-01

    It is not known whether patients with juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME) differ from healthy people in decision making under risk, i.e., when the decision-making context offers explicit information about options, probabilities, and consequences already from the beginning. In this study, we adopted the Game of Dice Task-Double to investigate decision making under risk in a group of 36 patients with JME (mean age 25.25/SD 5.29 years) and a group of 38 healthy controls (mean age 26.03/SD 4.84 years). Participants also underwent a comprehensive neuropsychological assessment focused on frontal executive functions. Significant group differences were found in tests of psychomotor speed and divided attention, with the patients scoring lower than the controls. Importantly, patients made risky decisions more frequently than controls. In the patient group, poor decision making was associated with poor executive control, poor response inhibition, and a short interval since the last seizure episode. Executive control and response inhibition could predict 42% of variance in the frequency of risky decisions. This study indicates that patients with JME with poorer executive functions are more likely to make risky decisions than healthy controls. Decision making under risk is of major importance in every-day life, especially with regard to treatment decisions and adherence to long-term medical therapy. Since even a single disadvantageous decision may have long-lasting consequences, this finding is of high relevance.

  3. Efficient group decision making in workshop settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel L. Schmoldt; David L. Peterson

    2001-01-01

    Public land managers must treat multiple values coincidentally in time and space, which requires the participation of multiple resource specialists and consideration of diverse clientele interests in the decision process. This implies decision making that includes multiple participants, both internally and externally. Decades of social science research on decision...

  4. Decision-making under great uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansson, S.O.

    1992-01-01

    Five types of decision-uncertainty are distinguished: uncertainty of consequences, of values, of demarcation, of reliance, and of co-ordination. Strategies are proposed for each type of uncertainty. The general conclusion is that it is meaningful for decision theory to treat cases with greater uncertainty than the textbook case of 'decision-making under uncertainty'. (au)

  5. Patients' Values in Clinical Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faggion, Clovis Mariano; Pachur, Thorsten; Giannakopoulos, Nikolaos Nikitas

    2017-09-01

    Shared decision-making involves the participation of patient and dental practitioner. Well-informed decision-making requires that both parties understand important concepts that may influence the decision. This fourth article in a series of 4 aims to discuss the importance of patients' values when a clinical decision is made. We report on how to incorporate important concepts for well-informed, shared decision-making. Here, we present patient values as an important issue, in addition to previously established topics such as the risk of bias of a study, cost-effectiveness of treatment approaches, and a comparison of therapeutic benefit with potential side effects. We provide 2 clinical examples and suggestions for a decision tree, based on the available evidence. The information reported in this article may improve the relationship between patient and dental practitioner, resulting in more well-informed clinical decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. An analysis of medical decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lusted, L.B.

    1977-01-01

    Medical decision-making studies continue to focus on two questions: How do physicians make decisions and how should physicians make decisions. Researchers pursuing the first question emphasize human cognitive processes and the programming of symbol systems to model the observed human behaviour. Those researchers concentrating on the second question assume that there is a standard of performance against which physicians' decisions can be judged, and to help the physician improve his performance an array of tools is proposed. These tools include decision trees, Bayesian analysis, decision matrices, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and cost-benefit considerations including utility measures. Both questions must be answered in an ethical context where ethics and decision analysis are intertwined. (author)

  7. Intuitionistic preference modeling and interactive decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Zeshui

    2014-01-01

    This book offers an in-depth and comprehensive introduction to the priority methods of intuitionistic preference relations, the consistency and consensus improving procedures for intuitionistic preference relations, the approaches to group decision making based on intuitionistic preference relations, the approaches and models for interactive decision making with intuitionistic fuzzy information, and the extended results in interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environments.

  8. Hybrid multiple criteria decision-making methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zavadskas, Edmundas Kazimieras; Govindan, K.; Antucheviciene, Jurgita

    2016-01-01

    Formal decision-making methods can be used to help improve the overall sustainability of industries and organisations. Recently, there has been a great proliferation of works aggregating sustainability criteria by using diverse multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques. A number of revi...

  9. Serotonin shapes risky decision making in monkeys

    OpenAIRE

    Long, Arwen B.; Kuhn, Cynthia M.; Platt, Michael L.

    2009-01-01

    Some people love taking risks, while others avoid gambles at all costs. The neural mechanisms underlying individual variation in preference for risky or certain outcomes, however, remain poorly understood. Although behavioral pathologies associated with compulsive gambling, addiction and other psychiatric disorders implicate deficient serotonin signaling in pathological decision making, there is little experimental evidence demonstrating a link between serotonin and risky decision making, in ...

  10. Influence of framing on medical decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Feng, Jun; Gong, Jingjing; Huang, Yonghua; Wei, Yazhou; Zhang, Weiwei; Zhang, Yan

    2013-01-01

    Numerous studies have demonstrated the robustness of the framing effect in a variety of contexts, especially in medical decision making. Unfortunately, research is still inconsistent as to how so many variables impact framing effects in medical decision making. Additionally, much attention should be paid to the framing effect not only in hypothetical scenarios but also in clinical experience.

  11. Influence of framing on medical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Jingjing; Zhang, Yan; Feng, Jun; Huang, Yonghua; Wei, Yazhou; Zhang, Weiwei

    2013-01-01

    Numerous studies have demonstrated the robustness of the framing effect in a variety of contexts, especially in medical decision making. Unfortunately, research is still inconsistent as to how so many variables impact framing effects in medical decision making. Additionally, much attention should be paid to the framing effect not only in hypothetical scenarios but also in clinical experience.

  12. Participatory decision-making for sustainable consumption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coenen, Frans; Huitema, Dave; Woltjer, Johan

    2009-01-01

    This chapter concerns the impact of public involvement in public decision-making processes as related to household consumption patterns, and the impact on consumer behaviour of active participation.1 The call for participatory decision-making is common in the field of sustainable consumption (Murphy

  13. Scientific Literacy for Democratic Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yacoubian, Hagop A.

    2018-01-01

    Scientifically literate citizens must be able to engage in making decisions on science-based social issues. In this paper, I start by showing examples of science curricula and policy documents that capitalise the importance of engaging future citizens in decision-making processes whether at the personal or at the societal levels. I elucidate the…

  14. Influence of framing on medical decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Jingjing; Zhang, Yan; Feng, Jun; Huang, Yonghua; Wei, Yazhou; Zhang, Weiwei

    2013-01-01

    Numerous studies have demonstrated the robustness of the framing effect in a variety of contexts, especially in medical decision making. Unfortunately, research is still inconsistent as to how so many variables impact framing effects in medical decision making. Additionally, much attention should be paid to the framing effect not only in hypothetical scenarios but also in clinical experience. PMID:27034630

  15. Decision-making under risk and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatev, G.I.

    2006-01-01

    Fuzzy sets and interval analysis tools to make computations and solve optimisation problems are presented. Fuzzy and interval extensions of Decision Theory criteria for decision-making under parametric uncertainty of prior information (probabilities, payoffs) are developed. An interval probability approach to the mean-value criterion is proposed. (author)

  16. Making Market Decisions in the Classroom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Stephen A.

    1986-01-01

    Computer software that will help intermediate and secondary social studies students learn to make rational decisions about personal and societal concerns are described. The courseware places students in the roles of business managers who make decisions about operating their firms. (RM)

  17. Farm decision making under risk and uncertainty.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Backus, G.B.C.; Eidman, V.R.; Dijkhuizen, A.A.

    1997-01-01

    Relevant portions of the risk literature are reviewed, relating them to observed behaviour in farm decision-making. Relevant topics for applied agricultural risk research are proposed. The concept of decision making under risk and uncertainty is discussed by reviewing the theory of Subjective

  18. Decision-making and sampling size effect

    OpenAIRE

    Ismariah Ahmad; Rohana Abd Rahman; Roda Jean-Marc; Lim Hin Fui; Mohd Parid Mamat

    2010-01-01

    Sound decision-making requires quality information. Poor information does not help in decision making. Among the sources of low quality information, an important cause is inadequate and inappropriate sampling. In this paper we illustrate the case of information collected on timber prices.

  19. Collaborative Strategic Decision Making in School Districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brazer, S. David; Rich, William; Ross, Susan A.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The dual purpose of this paper is to determine how superintendents in US school districts work with stakeholders in the decision-making process and to learn how different choices superintendents make affect decision outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This multiple case study of three school districts employs qualitative methodology to…

  20. Ethical Decision Making and Effective Leadership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaucher, Ellie

    2010-01-01

    The problem. Educational leaders face challenges in the 21st century, make numerous decisions daily, and have the choice to make decisions based on ethics. Educational leaders may follow a corporate model regarding expenses and revenues while ignoring the best interests of children and their academic achievement. The alternative to the corporate…

  1. The decision making in the nuclear regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This document describes some parameters and fundamental criteria which should be taken into account by the safety authorities in the decision making. Added to these principles, internal procedures, devoted to an integrated framework of decision making, should be implemented. This presentation is based on the study realized by an experts Group of the Nuclear Energy Agency. (A.L.B.)

  2. Decision Making: Rational, Nonrational, and Irrational.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Herbert A.

    1993-01-01

    Describes the current state of knowledge about human decision-making and problem-solving processes, explaining recent developments and their implications for management and management training. Rational goal-setting is the key to effective decision making and accomplishment. Bounded rationality is a realistic orientation, because the world is too…

  3. Making Responsible Academic Ethical Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Charles H.

    1996-01-01

    Sound ethical decisions depend on clear problem definition, careful review of alternatives, consideration of consequences, and thoughtful application of relevant principles of responsibility. Often they also require a willingness to receive corrective insight and to check judgments with moral intuitions. Higher education has a special…

  4. Conceptual Frameworks for Child Care Decision-Making. White Paper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudry, Ajay; Henly, Julia; Meyers, Marcia

    2010-01-01

    This working paper is one in a series of projects initiated by the Administration for Children and Families (ACF) to improve knowledge for child care researchers and policy makers about parental child care decision making. In this paper, the authors identify three distinct conceptual frameworks for understanding child care decisions--a rational…

  5. The Future of Computerized Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    professionals will be becoming more adept at scripting, modeling, graphical and statistical displays. Decision makers may, similarly, be less likely to shy...elsewhere in this proceedings (Sanchez 2014) simulation can be the core for model-driven big data and inferential decision-making. We need to stake... descriptive , not prescriptive.” In our field, we deal with prospective decision making. We have an advantage in this area: since our output data are

  6. Rationality and Emotions in Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Olga Markic

    2009-01-01

    Decision making is traditionally viewed as a rational process where reason calculates the best way to achieve the goal. Investigations from different areas of cognitive science have shown that human decisions and actions are much more influenced by intuition and emotional responses then it was previously thought. In this paper I examine the role of emotion in decision making, particularly Damasio’s hypothesis of somatic markers and Green’s dual process theory of moral judgment. I conclude the...

  7. Behavioural Decision Making and Suggestional Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Molz, Günter

    2001-01-01

    Common features between the domains of behavioural decision making and suggestional processes are discussed. These features are allocated in two aspects. First, behavioural decision making and suggestional processes are traditionally considered to provoke inadequate human behaviour. In this article arguments are put forward against this interpretation: Actions induced by non-rational decisions and / or by suggestional processes often have adaptive functions. Second, two common themat...

  8. Decision-making in the adolescent brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakemore, Sarah-Jayne; Robbins, Trevor W

    2012-09-01

    Adolescence is characterized by making risky decisions. Early lesion and neuroimaging studies in adults pointed to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex and related structures as having a key role in decision-making. More recent studies have fractionated decision-making processes into its various components, including the representation of value, response selection (including inter-temporal choice and cognitive control), associative learning, and affective and social aspects. These different aspects of decision-making have been the focus of investigation in recent studies of the adolescent brain. Evidence points to a dissociation between the relatively slow, linear development of impulse control and response inhibition during adolescence versus the nonlinear development of the reward system, which is often hyper-responsive to rewards in adolescence. This suggests that decision-making in adolescence may be particularly modulated by emotion and social factors, for example, when adolescents are with peers or in other affective ('hot') contexts.

  9. Affective Decision Making in Insurance Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Anat Bracha

    2004-01-01

    This paper suggests incorporating affective considerations into decision making theory and insurance decision in particular. I describe a decision maker with two internal accounts - the rational account and the mental account. The rational account decides on insurance to maximize expected (perceived) utility, while the mental account chooses risk perceptions which then affect the perceived expected utility. The two accounts interact to reach a decision which is composed of both risk perceptio...

  10. THE EXISTENTIAL FACTORS IN THE DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei Sergeevich Emelyanov

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to an extensive and modern area of scientific knowledge – Decision theory. The author comprehends and analyzes critically the methodological bases of the Decision theory, he thinks, it rejects the most important thing – a human. In the article the reconstruction of historical development in the Decision theory is considered and also existential factors and feelings are discussed, which appear in human being and operate the situation of decision-making.

  11. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Schöbel

    Full Text Available People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.

  12. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people’s decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others’ authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions. PMID:26784448

  13. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.

  14. Emotion, decision-making and the brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Luke J; Sanfey, Alan G

    2008-01-01

    Initial explorations in the burgeoning field of neuroeconomics have highlighted evidence supporting a potential dissociation between a fast automatic system and a slow deliberative controlled system. Growing research in the role of emotion in decision-making has attempted to draw parallels to the automatic system. This chapter will discuss a theoretical framework for understanding the role of emotion in decision-making and evidence supporting the underlying neural substrates. This chapter applies a conceptual framework to understanding the role of emotion in decision-making, and emphasizes a distinction between expected and immediate emotions. Expected emotions refer to anticipated emotional states associated with a given decision that are never actually experienced. Immediate emotions, however, are experienced at the time of decision, and either can occur in response to a particular decision or merely as a result of a transitory fluctuation. This chapter will review research from the neuroeconomics literature that supports a neural dissociation between these two classes of emotion and also discuss a few interpretive caveats. Several lines of research including regret, uncertainty, social decision-making, and moral decision-making have yielded evidence consistent with our formulization--expected and immediate emotions may invoke dissociable neural systems. This chapter provides a more specific conceptualization of the mediating role of emotions in the decision-making process, which has important implications for understanding the interacting neural systems underlying the interface between emotion and cognition--a topic of immediate value to anyone investigating topics within the context of social-cognitive-affective-neuroscience.

  15. Ethical decision-making, passivity and pharmacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, R J; Bissell, P; Wingfield, J

    2008-06-01

    Increasing interest in empirical ethics has enhanced understanding of healthcare professionals' ethical problems and attendant decision-making. A four-stage decision-making model involving ethical attention, reasoning, intention and action offers further insights into how more than reasoning alone may contribute to decision-making. To explore how the four-stage model can increase understanding of decision-making in healthcare and describe the decision-making of an under-researched professional group. 23 purposively sampled UK community pharmacists were asked, in semi-structured interviews, to describe ethical problems in their work and how they were resolved. Framework analysis of transcribed interviews utilised the four decision-making stages, together with constant comparative methods and deviant-case analysis. Pharmacists were often inattentive and constructed problems in legal terms. Ethical reasoning was limited, but examples of appeals to consequences, the golden rule, religious faith and common-sense experience emerged. Ethical intention was compromised by frequent concern about legal prosecution. Ethical inaction was common, typified by pharmacists' failure to report healthcare professionals' bad practices, and ethical passivity emerged to describe these negative examples of the four decision-making stages. Pharmacists occasionally described more ethically active decision-making, but this often involved ethical uncertainty. The four decision-making stages are a useful tool in considering how healthcare professionals try to resolve ethical problems in practice. They reveal processes often ignored in normative theories, and their recognition and the emergence of ethical passivity indicates the complexity of decision-making in practice. Ethical passivity may be deleterious to patients' welfare, and concerns emerge about improving pharmacists' ethical training and promoting ethical awareness and responsibility.

  16. Disentangling participation power and decision-making in participatory design

    CERN Document Server

    Bratteteig, Tone

    2014-01-01

    Providing a critical view on user participation in design, disentangling decision making and power in design, this book uses fieldwork material from two large participatory design projects: one experimental in the field of urban planning, the other a product development project within health care. Addressing power issues in participatory design is critical to providing a realistic view of the possibilities and limitations of participation. Design is decision-making: during a design process a huge number of decisions?taken before the designers end up with a design result - an artefact or system

  17. The Relations between Decision Making in Social Relationships and Decision Making Styles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, Enver

    2008-01-01

    The research reported in this paper aimed to examine the relationships between decisiveness in social relationships, and the decision-making styles of a group of university students and to investigate the contributions of decision-making styles in predicting decisiveness in social relationship (conflict resolution, social relationship selection…

  18. Decision-making based on emotional images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katahira, Kentaro; Fujimura, Tomomi; Okanoya, Kazuo; Okada, Masato

    2011-01-01

    The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants' choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward, the "reward value" of the decision outcome, which guided the update of value for each choice, is unknown beforehand. To estimate the reward value of emotional pictures from participants' choice data, we used reinforcement learning models that have successfully been used in previous studies for modeling value-based decision making. Consequently, we found that the estimated reward value was asymmetric between positive and negative pictures. The negative reward value of negative pictures (relative to neutral pictures) was larger in magnitude than the positive reward value of positive pictures. This asymmetry was not observed in valence for an individual picture, which was rated by the participants regarding the emotion experienced upon viewing it. These results suggest that there may be a difference between experienced emotion and the effect of the experienced emotion on subsequent behavior. Our experimental and computational paradigm provides a novel way for quantifying how and what aspects of emotional events affect human behavior. The present study is a first step toward relating a large amount of knowledge in emotion science and in taking computational approaches to value-based decision making.

  19. 'My kidneys, my choice, decision aid': supporting shared decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortnum, Debbie; Smolonogov, Tatiana; Walker, Rachael; Kairaitis, Luke; Pugh, Debbie

    2015-06-01

    For patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) who are progressing to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) a decision of whether to undertake dialysis or conservative care is a critical component of the patient journey. Shared decision making for complex decisions such as this could be enhanced by a decision aid, a practice which is well utilised in other disciplines but limited for nephrology. A multidisciplinary team in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) utilised current decision-making theory and best practice to develop the 'My Kidneys, My Choice', a decision aid for the treatment of kidney disease. A patient-centred, five-sectioned tool is now complete and freely available to all ANZ units to support the ESKD education and shared decision-making process. Distribution and education have occurred across ANZ and evaluation of the decision aid in practice is in the first phase. Development of a new tool such as an ESKD decision aid requires vision, multidisciplinary input and ongoing implementation resources. This tool is being integrated into ANZ, ESKD education practice and is promoting the philosophy of shared decision making. © 2014 European Dialysis and Transplant Nurses Association/European Renal Care Association.

  20. Superstition and financial decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Hirshleifer, David; Jian, Ming; Zhang, Huai

    2014-01-01

    In Chinese culture, certain digits are lucky and others unlucky. We test how such numerological superstition affects financial decision in the China IPO market. We find that the frequency of lucky numerical stock listing codes exceeds what would be expected by chance. Also consistent with superstition effects, newly listed firms with lucky listing codes are initially traded at a premium after controlling for known determinants of valuation multiples, the lucky number premium dissipates within...

  1. System understanding as a basis for sustainable decision-making. A science - school collaboration within the Sparkling Science project "Traisen w3"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppe, Michaela; Böck, Kerstin; Loach, Andreas; Scheikl, Sigrid; Zitek, Andreas; Heidenreich, Andrea; Kurz-Aigner, Roman; Schrittwieser, Martin; Muhar, Susanne

    2016-04-01

    Equipping young people with the skills to participate successfully in increasingly complex environments and societies is a central issue of policy makers around the world. Only the understanding of complex socio-environmental systems establishes a basis for making decisions leading to sustainable development. However, OECD Pisa studies indicated, that only a low percentage of 15-year-old students was able to solve straightforward problems. Additionally, students get less interested in natural science education. In Austria "Sparkling Science" projects funded by the Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy in Austria target at integrating science with school learning by involving young people into scientific research for the purpose of developing new and engaging forms of interactive, meaningful learning. Within the Sparkling Science Project "Traisen.w3" scientists work together with 15 to 18-year-old students of an Austrian Secondary School over two years to identify and evaluate ecosystem services within the catchment of the river Traisen. One of the aims of the project is to foster system understanding of the youths by multi-modal school activities. To support the development of causal systems thinking, students developed qualitative causal models on processes in the catchment of the river Traisen with an interactive, hierarchically structured learning environment that was developed within the EU-FP7 project "DynaLearn" (http://www.dynalearn.eu) based on qualitative reasoning. Students worked in small groups and were encouraged to interlink entities, processes and simulate the results of the proposed interactions of hydrological, biological, ecological, spatial and societal elements. Within this setting collaborative problem solving competency through sharing knowledge, understanding and different perspectives was developed. Additionally, in several school workshops the ecosystem services concept was used as communication tool to show the

  2. Nonrational processes in ethical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogerson, Mark D; Gottlieb, Michael C; Handelsman, Mitchell M; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey

    2011-10-01

    Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasilegal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior, including context, perceptions, relationships, emotions, and heuristics. For example, a large body of behavioral research has demonstrated the importance of automatic intuitive and affective processes in decision making and judgment. These processes profoundly affect human behavior and lead to systematic biases and departures from normative theories of rationality. Their influence represents an important but largely unrecognized component of ethical decision making. We selectively review this work; provide various illustrations; and make recommendations for scientists, trainers, and practitioners to aid them in integrating the understanding of nonrational processes with ethical decision making.

  3. Ethical Decision-Making in College: Choosing between Right, Wrong, and the Space in between. A SERU Project Research Paper. Research & Occasional Paper Series: CSHE.2.09

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeung, Fanny P.F.; Keup, Jennifer R.

    2009-01-01

    It is important to understand how students' changing belief structures influence their values and behaviors, including their ethical beliefs and decision-making patterns. As such, this study will address the following research questions: 1) what are students' ethical beliefs and their perceptions of students' ethical behaviors; and 2) how do…

  4. Customer Decision Support Systems: Resources for Student Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cara Okleshen Peters, Ph.D.

    2005-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper highlights the potential of customer decision support systems (CDSS to assist students in education-related decision making. Faculty can use these resources to more effectively advise students on various elements of college life, while students can employ them to more actively participate in their own learning and improve their academic experience. This conceptual paper summarizes consumer decision support systems (CDSS concepts and presents exemplar websites students could utilize to support their education-related decision making. Finally, the authors discuss the potential benefits and drawbacks such resources engender from a student perspective and conclude with directions for future research.

  5. The neuroscience of social decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rilling, James K; Sanfey, Alan G

    2011-01-01

    Given that we live in highly complex social environments, many of our most important decisions are made in the context of social interactions. Simple but sophisticated tasks from a branch of experimental economics known as game theory have been used to study social decision-making in the laboratory setting, and a variety of neuroscience methods have been used to probe the underlying neural systems. This approach is informing our knowledge of the neural mechanisms that support decisions about trust, reciprocity, altruism, fairness, revenge, social punishment, social norm conformity, social learning, and competition. Neural systems involved in reward and reinforcement, pain and punishment, mentalizing, delaying gratification, and emotion regulation are commonly recruited for social decisions. This review also highlights the role of the prefrontal cortex in prudent social decision-making, at least when social environments are relatively stable. In addition, recent progress has been made in understanding the neural bases of individual variation in social decision-making.

  6. EMOTIONS AND REASONING IN MORAL DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Nadurak

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the research is the study of relationship between emotional and rational factors in moral decisions making. Methodology. The work is primarily based on the analysis and synthesis of the main empirical studies of the problem, each of which uses the methods of those sciences in which they were conducted (neurosciences. Originality. In general, the process of moral decision making cannot be described by a single simple model that would see only emotional or rational factor in foundation of this process. Moral decision making is characterized by different types of interaction between emotions and rational considerations. The influence of emotional and rational factors on moral decision is nonlinear: moral decision, which person makes, isn’t proportional to those emotions that preceded it and isn't unambiguously determined by them, because rational reasoning and contextual factors can significantly change it. Similarly, the reasoning that precede the decision is not necessarily reflected in the decision, because it can be significantly corrected by those emotions that accompany it. Conclusions. The process of moral decision making involves complex, heterogeneous interaction between emotional and rational factors. There are three main types of such interaction: first, the reasoning serves to rationalize prior emotional response; second, there are cases when reasoning precedes emotional reactions and determines it; third, interaction between these factors is characterized by cyclic causality (emotion impacts reasoning, which in turn impacts emotions. The influence of emotions or rational reasoning on moral decision is nonlinear.

  7. Mixed Frames and Risky Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Jiaxi; Zhang, Jiaxi; Sun, Hao; Zeng, Zhicong; Mai, Yuexia; Miao, Danmin

    2017-01-01

    By applying unitive vocabulary, "die" or "save," to respective frames of the Asian disease problem, Tversky and Kahneman were able to define framing effect. In this study, we preliminarily explored the effect of mixed frames, which are characterized by the use of different vocabulary in one frame. In study 1, we found that only the sure option description had significant effect on decision-making, while the effects of risky option descriptions were not significant, nor were interactions between descriptions. In study 2, the results suggested that after controlling the effects of the hedonic tone of the sure options, risky option description did not significantly predict decision-making. In study 3, we found that neither the sure-to-risky option presentation order nor presentation order within risky options had significant effect on decision-making. We thus concluded that sure option description can serve as the decision-making foundation (reference point) for decision-makers in mixed frames.

  8. [Cognitive errors in diagnostic decision making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gäbler, Martin

    2017-10-01

    Approximately 10-15% of our diagnostic decisions are faulty and may lead to unfavorable and dangerous outcomes, which could be avoided. These diagnostic errors are mainly caused by cognitive biases in the diagnostic reasoning process.Our medical diagnostic decision-making is based on intuitive "System 1" and analytical "System 2" diagnostic decision-making and can be deviated by unconscious cognitive biases.These deviations can be positively influenced on a systemic and an individual level. For the individual, metacognition (internal withdrawal from the decision-making process) and debiasing strategies, such as verification, falsification and rule out worst-case scenarios, can lead to improved diagnostic decisions making.

  9. Decision making over imprecise lotteries

    OpenAIRE

    Rébillé, Yann

    2005-01-01

    URL des Cahiers :http://mse.univ-paris1.fr/MSEFramCahier2005.htm; Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques 2005.89 - ISSN : 1624-0340; Since von Neuman and Morgenstern's (1944) contribution to game theory, the expected utility criterion has become the standard functional to evaluate risky prospects. Risky prospects are understood to be lotteries on a set of prizes. In which case a decision maker will receive a precise prize with a given probability. A wide interest on imprecise object ha...

  10. Improving accountability in vaccine decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmis, James Kenneth; Black, Steven; Rappuoli, Rino

    2017-11-01

    Healthcare decisions, in particular those affecting entire populations, should be evidence-based and taken by decision-makers sharing broad alignment with affected stakeholders. However, criteria, priorities and procedures for decision-making are sometimes non-transparent, frequently vary considerably across equivalent decision-bodies, do not always consider the broader benefits of new health-measures, and therefore do not necessarily adequately represent the relevant stakeholder-spectrum. Areas covered: To address these issues in the context of the evaluation of new vaccines, we have proposed a first baseline set of core evaluation criteria, primarily selected by members of the vaccine research community, and suggested their implementation in vaccine evaluation procedures. In this communication, we review the consequences and utility of stakeholder-centered core considerations to increase transparency in and accountability of decision-making procedures, in general, and of the benefits gained by their inclusion in Multi-Criteria-Decision-Analysis tools, exemplified by SMART Vaccines, specifically. Expert commentary: To increase effectiveness and comparability of health decision outcomes, decision procedures should be properly standardized across equivalent (national) decision bodies. To this end, including stakeholder-centered criteria in decision procedures would significantly increase their transparency and accountability, support international capacity building to improve health, and reduce societal costs and inequity resulting from suboptimal health decision-making.

  11. Implements of economic decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyse¾ová Katarína

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The present worth of an investment is calculated by estimating the present value of each of its expected future cash flows and then summing these present values. If the total or net present value of the investment's future exceeds its cost, the investment in the project can be expected to increase the firm's value.

  12. Cognitive skills and nuclear power plant operational decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoenfeld, Isabelle

    1998-01-01

    The author reports a project research which aimed at identifying cognitive skills required for severe accident management. It is based on an analytical model of decision making for severe accident conditions. Moreover, scenarios were developed to reveal specific decision making difficulties and to test cognitive skills associated with each of the model's elements. The model used to identify cognitive skills comprised six general processes to describe decision-making performance: monitor/detect, interpret current state, determine implications, plan, control, feedback. For each of these processes, situational factors, cognitive limitations and biases, individual cognitive skills and team cognitive skills have been identified

  13. Adolescent women's contraceptive decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisman, C S; Plichta, S; Nathanson, C A; Chase, G A; Ensminger, M E; Robinson, J C

    1991-06-01

    A modified rational decision model incorporating salient events and social influences (particularly from sexual partners) is used to analyze adolescent women's consistent use of oral contraceptives (OCs) over a six-month period. Data are taken from a panel study of 308 clients of an inner-city family planning clinic. Expected OC use was computed for each subject on the basis of subjective expected utility (SEU) theory, and is found in multivariate analyses to be a significant predictor of actual OC use. In addition, variables representing baseline and follow-up partner influences, the salience of pregnancy for the subject, and positive side effects of OCs during the first months of use are found to predict OC use. Partner's support of OC use during follow-up and positive side effects of OCs are found to predict OC use among subjects for whom OC use was not the expected decision according to baseline SEU. Implications of the findings for models of adolescents' contraceptive behavior and for clinicians are discussed.

  14. Doctor's dilemma: Medical decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ganatra, R.D.

    1992-01-01

    How a doctor arrives at a decision is of interest to both the developed and the developing countries. The developed and the developing want to walk on the same road but from different directions: one wants to develop a little more and the other wants to develop a little less for cost containment. To justify nuclear medicine in a developing country we have to see nuclear medicine in a new role. It is not for putting the diagnostic labels, not for differential diagnosis as we have been conditioned to think so far. In a developing country it should be for differential management, How does it alter the management decision in respect to a particular patient? If management outcomes are restricted, there is no need for an investigation which does not help in any way the management of the patient. If there is no bypass surgery, what use is the thallium perfusion? Although primarily a diagnostic discipline for its justification and survival in the developing country it should lead to a sensible differential management

  15. Intergroup conflict and rational decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Tur, Vicente; Peñarroja, Vicente; Serrano, Miguel A; Hidalgo, Vanesa; Moliner, Carolina; Salvador, Alicia; Alacreu-Crespo, Adrián; Gracia, Esther; Molina, Agustín

    2014-01-01

    The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict -associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate)- has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making.

  16. Risky decision making in adults with ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthies, S; Philipsen, A; Svaldi, J

    2012-09-01

    Risky decision making and disadvantageous choices constitute core characteristics of patients with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Consequences include negative psychosocial and health-related outcomes. However, risky decision making and its interrelations with emotional states in ADHD are poorly understood. Therefore, the authors investigated risky decision making without and after boredom induction in adults with and without ADHD. In study 1, ADHD patients (n = 15) and age/education matched controls (CG; n = 16) were compared on the Game of Dice Task (GDT), an established task measuring decision making in unambiguous situations. In study 2, ADHD patients (n = 14) and CG (n = 13) underwent boredom induction prior to the GDT. In study 1, ADHD patients selected the disadvantageous alternatives significantly more often than CG. In study 2, no significant group differences were found due to an increase in risky decision making in CG following the boredom induction. Even if severity of depression did not affect our results, it may be necessary to compare GDT responses in ADHD patients with and without current depression. Risk as a motor of disadvantageous decision making needs to be taken into account in therapeutic contexts as a maintenance factor of dysfunctional behaviour. The findings of study 2 are in line with postulated alterations of emotional state adjustment in ADHD. The link between decisions making and emotional regulation in ADHD needs further attention in research. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Intergroup conflict and rational decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vicente Martínez-Tur

    Full Text Available The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict -associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate- has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making.

  18. Intergroup Conflict and Rational Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Tur, Vicente; Peñarroja, Vicente; Serrano, Miguel A.; Hidalgo, Vanesa; Moliner, Carolina; Salvador, Alicia; Alacreu-Crespo, Adrián; Gracia, Esther; Molina, Agustín

    2014-01-01

    The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict –associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate)– has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making. PMID:25461384

  19. Gender and internet consumers' decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Chyan; Wu, Chia-Chun

    2007-02-01

    The purpose of this research is to provide managers of shopping websites information regarding consumer purchasing decisions based on the Consumer Styles Inventory (CSI). According to the CSI, one can capture what decision-making styles online shoppers use. Furthermore, this research also discusses the gender differences among online shoppers. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was used to understand the decision-making styles and discriminant analysis was used to distinguish the differences between female and male shoppers. The result shows that there are differences in purchasing decisions between online female and male Internet users.

  20. Commercial robbers and decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroese, G.J.; Staring, R.H.J.M.

    1994-01-01

    This is a summary of a research into the motives of (bank) robbers and the choices they make. Information is presented on the offender's backgrounds, criminal careers, goals and typology, preparation and way of conduction of the robbery, the escape, opions of robbers, social organization and

  1. The amygdala and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Rupa; Koscik, Timothy R; Bechara, Antoine; Tranel, Daniel

    2011-03-01

    Decision-making is a complex process that requires the orchestration of multiple neural systems. For example, decision-making is believed to involve areas of the brain involved in emotion (e.g., amygdala, ventromedial prefrontal cortex) and memory (e.g., hippocampus, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). In this article, we will present findings related to the amygdala's role in decision-making, and differentiate the contributions of the amygdala from those of other structurally and functionally connected neural regions. Decades of research have shown that the amygdala is involved in associating a stimulus with its emotional value. This tradition has been extended in newer work, which has shown that the amygdala is especially important for decision-making, by triggering autonomic responses to emotional stimuli, including monetary reward and punishment. Patients with amygdala damage lack these autonomic responses to reward and punishment, and consequently, cannot utilize "somatic marker" type cues to guide future decision-making. Studies using laboratory decision-making tests have found deficient decision-making in patients with bilateral amygdala damage, which resembles their real-world difficulties with decision-making. Additionally, we have found evidence for an interaction between sex and laterality of amygdala functioning, such that unilateral damage to the right amygdala results in greater deficits in decision-making and social behavior in men, while left amygdala damage seems to be more detrimental for women. We have posited that the amygdala is part of an "impulsive," habit type system that triggers emotional responses to immediate outcomes. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Sustainability focused decision-making in building renovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamari, Aliakbar; Corrao, Rossella; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2017-01-01

    of the sustainability issues through support of decision-making and communication with relevant stakeholders. Early in a project, it can be used to identify key performance criteria, and later to evaluate/compare the pros and cons of alternative retrofitting solutions either during the design stage or upon the project...

  3. Making sense of project management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Annemette; Kautz, Karl; Nielsen, Peter Axel

    2007-01-01

    How can a software company make sense of project management when it becomes involved in software process improvement? In software development most research has an instrumental view of knowledge management thus neglecting what is probably the most important part of knowledge management namely making...... sense of practice by developers and project managers. Through an action case, we study the knowledge management processes in a Danish software company. We analyse the case through the lens of a theoretical framework. The theoretical framework focuses in particular on sensemaking, collective construed...... substantial insight which could not have been achieved through an instrumental perspective on knowledge management....

  4. Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodhouse, C. A.; Crimmins, M.; Ferguson, D. B.; Garfin, G. M.; Scott, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    As society is confronted with population growth, limited resources, and the impacts of climate variability and change, it is vital that institutions of higher education promote the development of professionals who can work with decision-makers to incorporate scientific information into environmental planning and management. Skills for the communication of science are essential, but equally important is the ability to understand decision-making contexts and engage with resource managers and policy makers. It is increasingly being recognized that people who understand the linkages between science and decision making are crucial if science is to better support planning and policy. A new graduate-level seminar, "Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making," is a core course for a new post-baccalaureate certificate program, Connecting Environmental Science and Decision Making at the University of Arizona. The goal of the course is to provide students with a basic understanding of the dynamics between scientists and decision makers that result in scientific information being incorporated into environmental planning, policy, and management decisions. Through readings from the environmental and social sciences, policy, and planning literature, the course explores concepts including scientific information supply and demand, boundary organizations, co-production of knowledge, platforms for engagement, and knowledge networks. Visiting speakers help students understand some of the challenges of incorporating scientific information into planning and decision making within institutional and political contexts. The course also includes practical aspects of two-way communication via written, oral, and graphical presentations as well as through the interview process to facilitate the transfer of scientific information to decision makers as well as to broader audiences. We aspire to help students develop techniques that improve communication and

  5. Personality and career decision making in undergraduates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cabrera, Lidia

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The relationships between personality and career decision making in undergraduates are analyzed in this work. The hypothesis is that efficient personality is associated with the more mature process of career decision making. For this hypothesis, the Questionnaire of Efficient Personality and the Inventory of Career Factors was administered to 497 students in their final year of undergraduate school. The collected data was put under factorial analysis, analysis of differences of averages, and analysis of variance. The results confirm that an effective personality is tied to career decision making based as much on one´s knowledge of oneself as an understanding of the working world.

  6. Age Effects and Heuristics in Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besedeš, Tibor; Deck, Cary; Sarangi, Sudipta; Shor, Mikhael

    2012-05-01

    Using controlled experiments, we examine how individuals make choices when faced with multiple options. Choice tasks are designed to mimic the selection of health insurance, prescription drug, or retirement savings plans. In our experiment, available options can be objectively ranked allowing us to examine optimal decision making. First, the probability of a person selecting the optimal option declines as the number of options increases, with the decline being more pronounced for older subjects. Second, heuristics differ by age with older subjects relying more on suboptimal decision rules. In a heuristics validation experiment, older subjects make worse decisions than younger subjects.

  7. Make or buy strategy decision making in supply quality chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Mohammad Seyedhosseini

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Minimizing the total cost is absolutely the goal of each supply chain, which is most of the time pursued. In this regards, quality related costs that have significant roles are sometimes neglected. Selecting suppliers, which supply relatively high quality raw materials in a lower cost is considered as a strategic decision. Make or Buy decision can be also noticed in supplier selection process. In this paper, the supply strategy: Make or Buy decision (SS: MOB is studied in order to find which strategy (Make or Buy should be chosen to minimize the total costs of supply chain. Therefore, two separate models are generated for each strategy and several examples are solved for the respective models. Computational experiments show the efficiency of the proposed models for making decision about selecting the best strategy.

  8. Making sense of adolescent decision-making: challenge and reality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unguru, Yoram

    2011-08-01

    Few topics in pediatric bioethics are as vexing as decision-making. Decision-making in pediatrics presents challenges for children, parents, and physicians alike. The related, yet distinct, concepts of assent and consent are central to pediatric decision-making. Although informed consent is largely regarded as a worthwhile adult principle, assent has been, and continues to be, mired in debate. Controversial subjects include a meaningful definition of assent; how old children should be to assent; who should be included in the assent process; parental permission; how to resolve disputes between children and their parents; the relationship between assent and consent; the quantity and quality of information to disclose to children and their families; how much and what information children desire and need; the necessity and methods for assessing both children's understanding of disclosed information and of the assent process itself; reconciling ethical and legal attitudes toward assent; and finally, an effective, practical, and realistically applicable decision-making model.

  9. Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1992-01-01

    The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

  10. PRINCIPLE OF POINT MAKING OFMUTUALLY ACCEPTABLE MULTIPROJECTION DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga N. Lapaeva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The principle of point making of mutually acceptable multi-projection decision in economics is set forth in the article. The principle envisages searching for the best variant by each stakeholder and result making by crossing of individual sets.

  11. Handbook on Decision Making Vol 2 Risk Management in Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan

    2012-01-01

    This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.

  12. Shared decision-making and patient autonomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandman, Lars; Munthe, Christian

    2009-01-01

    In patient-centred care, shared decision-making is advocated as the preferred form of medical decision-making. Shared decision-making is supported with reference to patient autonomy without abandoning the patient or giving up the possibility of influencing how the patient is benefited. It is, however, not transparent how shared decision-making is related to autonomy and, in effect, what support autonomy can give shared decision-making. In the article, different forms of shared decision-making are analysed in relation to five different aspects of autonomy: (1) self-realisation; (2) preference satisfaction; (3) self-direction; (4) binary autonomy of the person; (5) gradual autonomy of the person. It is argued that both individually and jointly these aspects will support the models called shared rational deliberative patient choice and joint decision as the preferred versions from an autonomy perspective. Acknowledging that both of these models may fail, the professionally driven best interest compromise model is held out as a satisfactory second-best choice.

  13. Visual histories of decision processes for collaborative decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Kozlova, Karine

    2016-01-01

    Remembering, understanding and reconstructing past activities is a necessary part of any learning, sense-making or decision making process. It is also essential for any collaborative activity. This dissertation investigates the design and evaluation of systems to support decision remembering, understanding and reconstruction by groups and individuals. By conducting three qualitative case studies of small professional groups, we identify the critical activities where history functionality is n...

  14. Decision-Making Autonomy and Subsidiary Innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Vo, Dut; Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd; de Jong, Gjalt

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates how decision-making autonomy affects the possibility and intensity of innovation in subsidiaries of multinational enterprises (MNEs). Subsidiaries are increasingly identified as sources of innovation and as vehicles for cross-border transfer of new competences. The question...... of how much decision-making autonomy subsidiaries should have is a core issue in the management of headquarters-subsidiary relationships. Using two complementary theoretical perspectives, we hypothesize a non-linear relationship between subsidiary’s decision-making autonomy and innovation. We test our...... hypothesis in a multi-country and multiindustry database based on survey evidence of 134 subsidiaries located in five Central and Eastern European countries from 23 home countries. The empirical results provide support for a non-linear U shaped relationship between subsidiary decision-making autonomy...

  15. Navy Inventory Management Decision-Making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    MacDonald, Steven

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis asserts that Navy inventory managers do not have a general tendency to overbuy items, but rather make rational purchasing decisions influenced and motivated by the environment of rewards...

  16. Personalized Clinical Decision Making in Gastrointestinal Malignancies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hess, Søren; Bjerring, Ole Steen; Pfeiffer, Per

    2016-01-01

    and initial stages. This article outlines the potential use of fluorodeoxyglucose-PET/CT in clinical decision making with special regard to preoperative evaluation and response assessment in gastric cancer (including the gastroesophageal junction), pancreatic cancer (excluding neuroendocrine tumors...

  17. Making smarter decisions in urban environments

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Velthausz, D

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Increasing urbanisation has introduced and exacerbated challenges related to the management of service delivery, resources and hazards. Making informed decisions for a city and its inhabitants is difficult because a city is an extremely complex...

  18. The functional neuroanatomy of decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenbloom, Michael H; Schmahmann, Jeremy D; Price, Bruce H

    2012-01-01

    Decision-making is a complex executive function that draws on past experience, present goals, and anticipation of outcome, and which is influenced by prevailing and predicted emotional tone and cultural context. Functional imaging investigations and focal lesion studies identify the orbitofrontal, anterior cingulate, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices as critical to decision-making. The authors review the connections of these prefrontal regions with the neocortex, limbic system, basal ganglia, and cerebellum, highlight current ideas regarding the cognitive processes of decision-making that these networks subserve, and present a novel integrated neuroanatomical model for decision-making. Finally, clinical relevance of this circuitry is illustrated through a discussion of frontotemporal dementia, traumatic brain injury, and sociopathy.

  19. Modeling as a Decision-Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleiler-Baxter, Sarah K.; Stephens, D. Christopher; Baxter, Wesley A.; Barlow, Angela T.

    2017-01-01

    The goal in this article is to support teachers in better understanding what it means to model with mathematics by focusing on three key decision-making processes: Simplification, Relationship Mapping, and Situation Analysis. The authors use the Theme Park task to help teachers develop a vision of how students engage in these three decision-making…

  20. Legal Considerations in Clinical Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ursu, Samuel C.

    1992-01-01

    Discussion of legal issues in dental clinical decision making looks at the nature and elements of applicable law, especially malpractice, locus of responsibility, and standards of care. Greater use of formal decision analysis in clinical dentistry and better research on diagnosis and treatment are recommended, particularly in light of increasing…

  1. The neurobiology of social decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rilling, J.K.; King-Casas, B.; Sanfey, A.G.

    2008-01-01

    Humans live in highly complex social environments and some of our most important decisions are made in the context of social interactions. Research that probes the neural basis of decision-making in the context of social interactions combines behavioral paradigms from game theory with a variety of

  2. Assessing Professional Decision-Making Abilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNergney, Robert; Hinson, Stephanie

    1985-01-01

    Describes Teacher Development Decision Exercises, a computer-based method of diagnosing abilities of elementary and secondary school supervisors (principals, staff developers, curriculum coordinators) to make professional preactive or planning decisions. This approval simulates assessment of supervisors' abilities to use professional knowledge to…

  3. The Neuroscience of Social Decision-Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rilling, J.K.; Sanfey, A.G.

    2011-01-01

    Given that we live in highly complex social environments, many of our most important decisions are made in the context of social interactions. Simple but sophisticated tasks from a branch of experimental economics known as game theory have been used to study social decision-making in the laboratory

  4. Heuristic Decision Making in Network Linking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J.W. Harmsen - Van Hout (Marjolein); B.G.C. Dellaert (Benedict); P.J.J. Herings (Jean-Jacques)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractNetwork formation among individuals constitutes an important part of many OR processes, but relatively little is known about how individuals make their linking decisions in networks. This article provides an investigation of heuristic effects in individual linking decisions for

  5. Decision-Making Style and Vocational Maturity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Susan D.; Strohmer, Douglas C.

    1982-01-01

    Examined the relationship between decision-making style, scholastic achievement, and vocational maturity for college students (N=64). Results did not support the hypothesized relationship between rationality and attitudinal and cognitive maturity. Scholastic achievement and lack of dependent decision style were found to be moderately predictive of…

  6. Use of structured decision-making to explicitly incorporate environmental process understanding in management of coastal restoration projects: Case study on barrier islands of the northern Gulf of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalyander, P Soupy; Meyers, Michelle; Mattsson, Brady; Steyer, Gregory; Godsey, Elizabeth; McDonald, Justin; Byrnes, Mark; Ford, Mark

    2016-12-01

    Coastal ecosystem management typically relies on subjective interpretation of scientific understanding, with limited methods for explicitly incorporating process knowledge into decisions that must meet multiple, potentially competing stakeholder objectives. Conversely, the scientific community lacks methods for identifying which advancements in system understanding would have the highest value to decision-makers. A case in point is barrier island restoration, where decision-makers lack tools to objectively use system understanding to determine how to optimally use limited contingency funds when project construction in this dynamic environment does not proceed as expected. In this study, collaborative structured decision-making (SDM) was evaluated as an approach to incorporate process understanding into mid-construction decisions and to identify priority gaps in knowledge from a management perspective. The focus was a barrier island restoration project at Ship Island, Mississippi, where sand will be used to close an extensive breach that currently divides the island. SDM was used to estimate damage that may occur during construction, and guide repair decisions within the confines of limited availability of sand and funding to minimize adverse impacts to project objectives. Sand was identified as more limiting than funds, and unrepaired major breaching would negatively impact objectives. Repairing minor damage immediately was determined to be generally more cost effective (depending on the longshore extent) than risking more damage to a weakened project. Key gaps in process-understanding relative to project management were identified as the relationship of island width to breach formation; the amounts of sand lost during breaching, lowering, or narrowing of the berm; the potential for minor breaches to self-heal versus developing into a major breach; and the relationship between upstream nourishment and resiliency of the berm to storms. This application is a

  7. Use of structured decision-making to explicitly incorporate environmental process understanding in management of coastal restoration projects: Case study on barrier islands of the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalyander, P. Soupy; Meyers, Michelle B.; Mattsson, Brady; Steyer, Gregory; Godsey, Elizabeth; McDonald, Justin; Byrnes, Mark R.; Ford, Mark

    2016-01-01

    Coastal ecosystem management typically relies on subjective interpretation of scientific understanding, with limited methods for explicitly incorporating process knowledge into decisions that must meet multiple, potentially competing stakeholder objectives. Conversely, the scientific community lacks methods for identifying which advancements in system understanding would have the highest value to decision-makers. A case in point is barrier island restoration, where decision-makers lack tools to objectively use system understanding to determine how to optimally use limited contingency funds when project construction in this dynamic environment does not proceed as expected. In this study, collaborative structured decision-making (SDM) was evaluated as an approach to incorporate process understanding into mid-construction decisions and to identify priority gaps in knowledge from a management perspective. The focus was a barrier island restoration project at Ship Island, Mississippi, where sand will be used to close an extensive breach that currently divides the island. SDM was used to estimate damage that may occur during construction, and guide repair decisions within the confines of limited availability of sand and funding to minimize adverse impacts to project objectives. Sand was identified as more limiting than funds, and unrepaired major breaching would negatively impact objectives. Repairing minor damage immediately was determined to be generally more cost effective (depending on the longshore extent) than risking more damage to a weakened project. Key gaps in process-understanding relative to project management were identified as the relationship of island width to breach formation; the amounts of sand lost during breaching, lowering, or narrowing of the berm; the potential for minor breaches to self-heal versus developing into a major breach; and the relationship between upstream nourishment and resiliency of the berm to storms. This application is a

  8. Cognitive Reflection Versus Calculation in Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr eSinayev

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005. In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT’s ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes; Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1 or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2. These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.

  9. Cognitive reflection vs. calculation in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinayev, Aleksandr; Peters, Ellen

    2015-01-01

    Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT's ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes); Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1) or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2). These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.

  10. Capturing a Commander's decision making style

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Eugene; Nguyen, Hien; Russell, Jacob; Kim, Keumjoo; Veenhuis, Luke; Boparai, Ramnjit; Stautland, Thomas Kristoffer

    2017-05-01

    A Commander's decision making style represents how he weighs his choices and evaluates possible solutions with regards to his goals. Specifically, in the naval warfare domain, it relates the way he processes a large amount of information in dynamic, uncertain environments, allocates resources, and chooses appropriate actions to pursue. In this paper, we describe an approach to capture a Commander's decision style by creating a cognitive model that captures his decisionmaking process and evaluate this model using a set of scenarios using an online naval warfare simulation game. In this model, we use the Commander's past behaviors and generalize Commander's actions across multiple problems and multiple decision making sequences in order to recommend actions to a Commander in a manner that he may have taken. Our approach builds upon the Double Transition Model to represent the Commander's focus and beliefs to estimate his cognitive state. Each cognitive state reflects a stage in a Commander's decision making process, each action reflects the tasks that he has taken to move himself closer to a final decision, and the reward reflects how close he is to achieving his goal. We then use inverse reinforcement learning to compute a reward for each of the Commander's actions. These rewards and cognitive states are used to compare between different styles of decision making. We construct a set of scenarios in the game where rational, intuitive and spontaneous decision making styles will be evaluated.

  11. Managerial Decision Making in Geopolitically Turbulent Environments

    OpenAIRE

    Gawlik, Remigiusz

    2010-01-01

    The presented paper is a presentation of final results of research led throughout past years on a group of Polish and international SME’s. The essential aim was the elaboration of a decisionmaking model including both qualitative and quantitative factors that influence decisionmaking processes. Most focus has been put on geopolitical determinants of international companies’ development. In order to narrow the research field, a further limitation has been made in the type of undertaken s...

  12. Including Indigenous Minorities in Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pristed Nielsen, Helene

    Based on theories of public sphere participation and deliberative democracy, this book presents empirical results from a study of experiences with including Aboriginal and Maori groups in political decision-making in respectively Western Australia and New Zealand......Based on theories of public sphere participation and deliberative democracy, this book presents empirical results from a study of experiences with including Aboriginal and Maori groups in political decision-making in respectively Western Australia and New Zealand...

  13. EMOTIONS AND REASONING IN MORAL DECISION MAKING

    OpenAIRE

    V. V. Nadurak

    2016-01-01

    Purpose of the research is the study of relationship between emotional and rational factors in moral decisions making. Methodology. The work is primarily based on the analysis and synthesis of the main empirical studies of the problem, each of which uses the methods of those sciences in which they were conducted (neurosciences). Originality. In general, the process of moral decision making cannot be described by a single simple model that would see only emotional or rational factor in foundat...

  14. Chinese business managers' moral decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    LIN, NASA

    2011-01-01

    The topic of this thesis is about moral decision-making, and the main objective of this study is to research the moral decision-making of Chinese business managers based on the analysis of data. The study adopts systematic literature of qualitative research method and is constructed by means of qualitative analysis of 64 data articles. The 64 data articles are the journals from the Database of Chinese Academic Journals, Journal of Business Ethics and other leading business journals from the y...

  15. Neutrosophic Logic Applied to Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albeanu, Grigore; Burtschy, Bernard

    2014-01-01

    Decision making addresses the usage of various methods to select "the best", in some way, alternative strategy (from many available) when a problem is given for solving. The authors propose the usage of neutrosophic way of thinking, called also Smarandache's logic, to select a model by experts when...... degrees of trustability, ultrastability (falsehood), and indeterminacy are used to decide. The procedures deal with multi-attribute neutrosophic decision making and a case study on e-learning software objects is presented....

  16. A neural model of decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Larsen, Torben

    2008-01-01

    Background: A descriptive neuroeconomic model is aimed for relativity of the concept of economic man to empirical science.Method: A 4-level client-server-integrator model integrating the brain models of McLean and Luria is the general framework for the model of empirical findings.Results: Decision making relies on integration across brain levels of emotional intelligence (LU) and logico-matematico intelligence (RIA), respectively. The integrated decision making formula approaching zero by bot...

  17. On emotion specificity in decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Marcel Zeelenberg; Rob M. A. Nelissen; Seger M. Breugelmans; Rik Pieters

    2008-01-01

    We present a motivational account of the impact of emotion on decision making, termed the feeling-is-for-doing approach. We first describe the psychology of emotion and argue for a need to be specific when studying emotion's impact on decision making. Next we describe what our approach entails and how it relates emotion, via motivation to behavior. Then we offer two illustrations of our own research that provide support for two important elements in our reasoning. We end with specifying four ...

  18. Aggregate assessments support improved operational decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauer, R.

    2003-01-01

    At Darlington Nuclear aggregate assessment of plant conditions is carried out in support of Operational Decision Making. This paper discusses how aggregate assessments have been applied to Operator Workarounds leading to improved prioritisation and alignment of work programs in different departments. As well, aggregate assessment of plant and human performance factors has been carried out to identify criteria which support conservative decision making in the main control room during unit transients. (author)

  19. DECISION MAKING STYLES AND STUDY ORIENTATION

    OpenAIRE

    Govind, K.; Amalor, D.

    2016-01-01

    The present study is an attempt to study the relationship of Study Orientation (Study Habits and Attitudes) with decision making styles among higher secondary students. Survey of Study Habits and Attitudes (SSHA) developed by Brown and Holtzman (1967) and Flinders Decision Making Questionnaires I and II (DMQ-I and DMQ-II) developed by Mann (1982) were used to collect data. As large as 148 Higher Secondary Students pursuing the first year study of Higher Secondary Course (HSC) participated in ...

  20. Clinical decision making in veterinary practice

    OpenAIRE

    Everitt, Sally

    2011-01-01

    Aim The aim of this study is to develop an understanding of the factors which influence veterinary surgeons’ clinical decision making during routine consultations. Methods The research takes a qualitative approach using video-cued interviews, in which one of the veterinary surgeon’s own consultations is used as the basis of a semi-structured interview exploring decision making in real cases. The research focuses primarily on small animal consultations in first opinion practice, how...

  1. Neural substrates of decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broche-Pérez, Y; Herrera Jiménez, L F; Omar-Martínez, E

    2016-06-01

    Decision-making is the process of selecting a course of action from among 2 or more alternatives by considering the potential outcomes of selecting each option and estimating its consequences in the short, medium and long term. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) has traditionally been considered the key neural structure in decision-making process. However, new studies support the hypothesis that describes a complex neural network including both cortical and subcortical structures. The aim of this review is to summarise evidence on the anatomical structures underlying the decision-making process, considering new findings that support the existence of a complex neural network that gives rise to this complex neuropsychological process. Current evidence shows that the cortical structures involved in decision-making include the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). This process is assisted by subcortical structures including the amygdala, thalamus, and cerebellum. Findings to date show that both cortical and subcortical brain regions contribute to the decision-making process. The neural basis of decision-making is a complex neural network of cortico-cortical and cortico-subcortical connections which includes subareas of the PFC, limbic structures, and the cerebellum. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  2. Defining decision making: a qualitative study of international experts' views on surgical trainee decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rennie, Sarah C; van Rij, Andre M; Jaye, Chrystal; Hall, Katherine H

    2011-06-01

    Decision making is a key competency of surgeons; however, how best to assess decisions and decision makers is not clearly established. The aim of the present study was to identify criteria that inform judgments about surgical trainees' decision-making skills. A qualitative free text web-based survey was distributed to recognized international experts in Surgery, Medical Education, and Cognitive Research. Half the participants were asked to identify features of good decisions, characteristics of good decision makers, and essential factors for developing good decision-making skills. The other half were asked to consider these areas in relation to poor decision making. Template analysis of free text responses was performed. Twenty-nine (52%) experts responded to the survey, identifying 13 categories for judging a decision and 14 for judging a decision maker. Twelve features/characteristics overlapped (considered, informed, well timed, aware of limitations, communicated, knowledgeable, collaborative, patient-focused, flexible, able to act on the decision, evidence-based, and coherent). Fifteen categories were generated for essential factors leading to development of decision-making skills that fall into three major themes (personal qualities, training, and culture). The categories compiled from the perspectives of good/poor were predominantly the inverse of each other; however, the weighting given to some categories varied. This study provides criteria described by experts when considering surgical decisions, decision makers, and development of decision-making skills. It proposes a working definition of a good decision maker. Understanding these criteria will enable clinical teachers to better recognize and encourage good decision-making skills and identify poor decision-making skills for remediation.

  3. From Career Decision-Making Styles to Career Decision-Making Profiles: A Multidimensional Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gati, Itamar; Landman, Shiri; Davidovitch, Shlomit; Asulin-Peretz, Lisa; Gadassi, Reuma

    2010-01-01

    Previous research on individual differences in career decision-making processes has often focused on classifying individuals into a few types of decision-making "styles" based on the most dominant trait or characteristic of their approach to the decision process (e.g., rational, intuitive, dependent; Harren, 1979). In this research, an…

  4. Decision-making capacity should not be decisive in emergencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbeling, Dieneke

    2014-05-01

    Examples of patients with anorexia nervosa, depression or borderline personality disorder who have decision-making capacity as currently operationalized, but refuse treatment, are discussed. It appears counterintuitive to respect their treatment refusal because their wish seems to be fuelled by their illness and the consequences of their refusal of treatment are severe. Some proposed solutions have focused on broadening the criteria for decision-making capacity, either in general or for specific patient groups, but these adjustments might discriminate against particular groups of patients and render the process less transparent. Other solutions focus on preferences expressed when patients are not ill, but this information is often not available. The reason for such difficulties with assessing decision-making capacity is that the underlying psychological processes of normal decision-making are not well known and one cannot differentiate between unwise decisions caused by an illness or other factors. The proposed alternative, set out in this paper, is to allow compulsory treatment of patients with decision-making capacity in cases of an emergency, if the refusal is potentially life threatening, but only for a time-limited period. The argument is also made for investigating hindsight agreement, in particular after compulsory measures.

  5. Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernknopf, R.L.

    2005-01-01

    While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the

  6. Decision making based on emotional images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kentaro eKatahira

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward, the reward value of the decision outcome, which guided the update of value for each choice, is unknown beforehand. To estimate the reward value of emotional pictures from participants’ choice data, we used reinforcement learning models that have success- fully been used in previous studies for modeling value-based decision making. Consequently, we found that the estimated reward value was asymmetric between positive and negative pictures. The negative reward value of negative pictures (relative to neutral pictures was larger in magnitude than the positive reward value of positive pictures. This asymmetry was not observed in valence for an individual picture, which was rated by the participants regarding the emotion experienced upon viewing it. These results suggest that there may be a difference between experienced emotion and the effect of the experienced emotion on subsequent behavior. Our experimental and computational paradigm provides a novel way for quantifying how and what aspects of emotional events affect human behavior. The present study is a first step toward relating a large amount of knowledge in emotion science and in taking computational approaches to value-based decision making.

  7. Aspects of capital budgeting decision-making process of emerging markets transnational corporations

    OpenAIRE

    Alieva, D.

    2012-01-01

    Considers present-day aspects of capital budgeting decision-making in investment projects by transnational corporations (TNCs) in emerging markets. Discusses peculiarities of cash flows of TNC mother and project companies which influence the decision-making in project investment. A number of effective valuation techniques for multicurrency projects has been proposed, taking into account adjustments for various factors.

  8. Rationality and Emotions in Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Markič

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Decision making is traditionally viewed as a rational process where reason calculates the best way to achieve the goal. Investigations from different areas of cognitive science have shown that human decisions and actions are much more influenced by intuition and emotional responses then it was previously thought. In this paper I examine the role of emotion in decision making, particularly Damasio’s hypothesis of somatic markers and Green’s dual process theory of moral judgment. I conclude the paper with the discussion of the threat that deliberation and conscious rationality is an illusion.

  9. Reasoning in explanation-based decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennington, N; Hastie, R

    1993-01-01

    A general theory of explanation-based decision making is outlined and the multiple roles of inference processes in the theory are indicated. A typology of formal and informal inference forms, originally proposed by Collins (1978a, 1978b), is introduced as an appropriate framework to represent inferences that occur in the overarching explanation-based process. Results from the analysis of verbal reports of decision processes are presented to demonstrate the centrality and systematic character of reasoning in a representative legal decision-making task.

  10. Quantum probability and quantum decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yukalov, V I; Sornette, D

    2016-01-13

    A rigorous general definition of quantum probability is given, which is valid not only for elementary events but also for composite events, for operationally testable measurements as well as for inconclusive measurements, and also for non-commuting observables in addition to commutative observables. Our proposed definition of quantum probability makes it possible to describe quantum measurements and quantum decision-making on the same common mathematical footing. Conditions are formulated for the case when quantum decision theory reduces to its classical counterpart and for the situation where the use of quantum decision theory is necessary. © 2015 The Author(s).

  11. Advances in fuzzy decision making theory and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Skalna, Iwona; Gaweł, Bartłomiej; Basiura, Beata; Duda, Jerzy; Opiła, Janusz; Pełech-Pilichowski, Tomasz

    2015-01-01

    This book shows how common operation management methods and algorithms can be extended to deal with vague or imprecise information in decision-making problems. It describes how to combine decision trees, clustering, multi-attribute decision-making algorithms and Monte Carlo Simulation with the mathematical description of imprecise or vague information, and how to visualize such information. Moreover, it discusses a broad spectrum of real-life management problems including forecasting the apparent consumption of steel products, planning and scheduling of production processes, project portfolio selection and economic-risk estimation. It is a concise, yet comprehensive, reference source for researchers in decision-making and decision-makers in business organizations alike.

  12. Rethinking how retail buyers make buying decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Esbjerg, Lars

    The nature of retailer buying is changing, but not so our conceptualisations. Existing literature on retailer buying is characterised by a rather narrow focus on what retail buyers decide and which decision criteria they use to make decisions, whereas comparatively little attention has been devoted...... to the processes of how and why certain decisions are made. This paper aims to move beyond a focus on single decisions as discrete events to viewing retailer buying as something that occurs in ongoing relationally-responsive interaction between retailers and suppliers....

  13. Dynamic decision making without expected utility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Jaffray, Jean-Yves

    2006-01-01

    Non-expected utility theories, such as rank dependent utility (RDU) theory, have been proposed as alternative models to EU theory in decision making under risk. These models do not share the separability property of expected utility theory. This implies that, in a decision tree, if the reduction...... maker’s discordant goals at the different decision nodes. Relative to the computations involved in the standard expected utility evaluation of a decision problem, the main computational increase is due to the identification of non-dominated strategies by linear programming. A simulation, using the rank...

  14. Examining Decision-Making Regarding Environmental Information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marble, Julie Lynne; Medema, Heather Dawne; Hill, Susan Gardiner

    2001-10-01

    Eight participants were asked to view a computer-based multimedia presentation on an environmental phenomenon. Participants were asked to play a role as a senior aide to a national legislator. In this role, they were told that the legislator had asked them to review a multimedia presentation regarding the hypoxic zone phenomenon in the Gulf of Mexico. Their task in assuming the role of a senior aide was to decide how important a problem this issue was to the United States as a whole, and the proportion of the legislator’s research budget that should be devoted to study of the problem. The presentation was divided into 7 segments, each containing some new information not contained in the previous segments. After viewing each segment, participants were asked to indicate how close they were to making a decision and how certain they were that their current opinion would be their final decision. After indicating their current state of decision-making, participants were interviewed regarding the factors affecting their decision-making. Of interest was the process by which participants moved toward a decision. This experiment revealed a number of possible directions for future research. There appeared to be two approaches to decision-making: Some decision-makers moved steadily toward a decision, and occasionally reversed decisions after viewing information, while others abruptly reached a decision after a certain time period spent reviewing the information. Although the difference in estimates of distance to decisions did not differ statistically for these two groups, that difference was reflected in the participants’ estimates of confidence that their current opinion would be their final decision. The interviews revealed that the primary difference between these two groups was in their trade-offs between willingness to spend time in information search and the acquisition of new information. Participants who were less confident about their final decision, tended to be

  15. Understanding patient perceptions of shared decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shay, L Aubree; Lafata, Jennifer Elston

    2014-09-01

    This study aims to develop a conceptual model of patient-defined SDM, and understand what leads patients to label a specific, decision-making process as shared. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 23 primary care patients following a recent appointment. Patients were asked about the meaning of SDM and about specific decisions that they labeled as shared. Interviews were coded using qualitative content analysis. Patients' conceptual definition of SDM included four components of an interactive exchange prior to making the decision: both doctor and patient share information, both are open-minded and respectful, patient self-advocacy, and a personalized physician recommendation. Additionally, a long-term trusting relationship helps foster SDM. In contrast, when asked about a specific decision labeled as shared, patients described a range of interactions with the only commonality being that the two parties came to a mutually agreed-upon decision. There is no one-size-fits all process that leads patients to label a decision as shared. Rather, the outcome of "agreement" may be more important than the actual decision-making process for patients to label a decision as shared. Studies are needed to better understand how longitudinal communication between patient and physicians and patient self-advocacy behaviors affect patient perceptions of SDM. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  16. Goals and plans in decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David H. Krantz

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available We propose a constructed-choice model for general decision making. The model departs from utility theory and prospect theory in its treatment of multiple goals and it suggests several different ways in which context can affect choice. It is particularly instructive to apply this model to protective decisions, which are often puzzling. Among other anomalies, people insure against non-catastrophic events, underinsure against catastrophic risks, and allow extraneous factors to influence insurance purchases and other protective decisions. Neither expected-utility theory nor prospect theory can explain these anomalies satisfactorily. To apply this model to the above anomalies, we consider many different insurance-related goals, organized in a taxonomy, and we consider the effects of context on goals, resources, plans and decision rules. The paper concludes by suggesting some prescriptions for improving individual decision making with respect to protective measures.

  17. FUZZY DECISION MAKING MODEL FOR BYZANTINE AGREEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. MURUGAN

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Byzantine fault tolerance is of high importance in the distributed computing environment where malicious attacks and software errors are common. A Byzantine process sends arbitrary messages to every other process. An effective fuzzy decision making approach is proposed to eliminate the Byzantine behaviour of the services in the distributed environment. It is proposed to derive a fuzzy decision set in which the alternatives are ranked with grade of membership and based on that an appropriate decision can be arrived on the messages sent by the different services. A balanced decision is to be taken from the messages received across the services. To accomplish this, Hurwicz criterion is used to balance the optimistic and pessimistic views of the decision makers on different services. Grades of membership for the services are assessed using the non-functional Quality of Service parameters and have been estimated using fuzzy entropy measure which logically ranks the participant services. This approach for decision making is tested by varying the number of processes, varying the number of faulty services, varying the message values sent to different services and considering the variation in the views of the decision makers about the services. The experimental result shows that the decision reached is an enhanced one and in case of conflict, the proposed approach provides a concrete result, whereas decision taken using the Lamport’s algorithm is an arbitrary one.

  18. How well-run boards make decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Useem, Michael

    2006-11-01

    In the aftermath of seismic debacles like those that toppled Enron and WorldCom, corporate boards have been shaken up and made over. More directors are independent these days, for instance, and corporations now disclose directors' salaries and committee members' names. Research shows that most of the changes are having a positive effect on companies' performance. They are primarily structural, though, and don't go to the heart of a board's work: making the choices that shape a firm's future. Which decisions boards own and how those calls are made are largely hidden from the public. As a result, boards are often unable to learn from the best governance practices of their counterparts at other companies. This article pulls back the curtain and provides an inside look. Drawing on interviews with board members and executives at 31 companies, along with a close examination of three boardroom decisions, the author identifies several formal processes that can help companies improve their decision making: creating calendars that specify when the board and the standing committees will consider key items; drafting charters that define the decisions committees are responsible for; and developing decision protocols that divvy up responsibilities between directors and executives. The author also identifies a number of informal decision-making principles: Items that are strategically significant and touch on the firm's core values should go to the board. Large decisions should be divided into small pieces, so the board can devote sufficient attention to each one. Directors must remain vigilant to ensure that their decisions are effectively implemented. The CEO and either the nonexecutive chair or the lead director should engage in ongoing dialogue regarding which decisions to take to the full board and when. And directors should challenge assumptions before making yes-or-no decisions on management proposals.

  19. Humans Optimize Decision-Making by Delaying Decision Onset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teichert, Tobias; Ferrera, Vincent P.; Grinband, Jack

    2014-01-01

    Why do humans make errors on seemingly trivial perceptual decisions? It has been shown that such errors occur in part because the decision process (evidence accumulation) is initiated before selective attention has isolated the relevant sensory information from salient distractors. Nevertheless, it is typically assumed that subjects increase accuracy by prolonging the decision process rather than delaying decision onset. To date it has not been tested whether humans can strategically delay decision onset to increase response accuracy. To address this question we measured the time course of selective attention in a motion interference task using a novel variant of the response signal paradigm. Based on these measurements we estimated time-dependent drift rate and showed that subjects should in principle be able trade speed for accuracy very effectively by delaying decision onset. Using the time-dependent estimate of drift rate we show that subjects indeed delay decision onset in addition to raising response threshold when asked to stress accuracy over speed in a free reaction version of the same motion-interference task. These findings show that decision onset is a critical aspect of the decision process that can be adjusted to effectively improve decision accuracy. PMID:24599295

  20. IT portfolio decision-making in local governments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger Nielsen, Jeppe; Pedersen, Keld

    2014-01-01

    by the IT PPM literature) plays a minor role. Our account also reveals how the decision-making practices create IT portfolio problems and in some aspects is considered to have a negative impact on the outcome of e-government investments. Our analysis and previous research into decision-making allows us to argue......IT project portfolio management (IT PPM) has evolved into a significant area of research interest, but we know little about IT PPM practices in public sector organizations. Therefore this article investigates decision-making processes in the IT PPM practices of local governments, and discusses how...... these practices match the normative advice proposed by the IT PPMliterature.We rely on decision-making theories togetherwith case-studies of four Danish local governments.We find that politics, intuition and coincidence play a crucial role in IT PPM decisionmaking, while technical rationality (as proposed...

  1. Promoting Shared Decision Making through Descriptive Inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seher, Rachel; Traugh, Cecelia; Cheng, Alan

    2018-01-01

    This article shows how City-As-School, a progressive public school in New York City, used descriptive inquiry to deepen shared decision making, which is a central value of the school and part of a democratic way of life. Descriptive inquiry is a democratic knowledge-making process that was developed at the Prospect School in North Bennington,…

  2. Nonrational Processes in Ethical Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogerson, Mark D.; Gottlieb, Michael C.; Handelsman, Mitchell M.; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey

    2011-01-01

    Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasi-legal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior,…

  3. Towards decision making via expressive probabilistic ontologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acar, Erman; Thorne, Camilo; Stuckenschmidt, Heiner

    2015-01-01

    © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015. We propose a framework for automated multi-attribute deci- sion making, employing the probabilistic non-monotonic description log- ics proposed by Lukasiewicz in 2008. Using this framework, we can model artificial agents in decision-making

  4. Staged decision making based on probabilistic forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris

    2016-04-01

    Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in

  5. Rodent models of adaptive decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izquierdo, Alicia; Belcher, Annabelle M

    2012-01-01

    Adaptive decision making affords the animal the ability to respond quickly to changes in a dynamic environment: one in which attentional demands, cost or effort to procure the reward, and reward contingencies change frequently. The more flexible the organism is in adapting choice behavior, the more command and success the organism has in navigating its environment. Maladaptive decision making is at the heart of much neuropsychiatric disease, including addiction. Thus, a better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie normal, adaptive decision making helps achieve a better understanding of certain diseases that incorporate maladaptive decision making as a core feature. This chapter presents three general domains of methods that the experimenter can manipulate in animal decision-making tasks: attention, effort, and reward contingency. Here, we present detailed methods of rodent tasks frequently employed within these domains: the Attentional Set-Shift Task, Effortful T-maze Task, and Visual Discrimination Reversal Learning. These tasks all recruit regions within the frontal cortex and the striatum, and performance is heavily modulated by the neurotransmitter dopamine, making these assays highly valid measures in the study of psychostimulant addiction.

  6. A brief history of decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, Leigh; O'Connell, Andrew

    2006-01-01

    Sometime around the middle of the past century, telephone executive Chester Barnard imported the term decision making from public administration into the business world. There it began to replace narrower terms, like "resource allocation" and "policy making," shifting the way managers thought about their role from continuous, Hamlet-like deliberation toward a crisp series of conclusions reached and actions taken. Yet, decision making is, of course, a broad and ancient human pursuit, flowing back to a time when people sought guidance from the stars. From those earliest days, we have strived to invent better tools for the purpose, from the Hindu-Arabic systems for numbering and algebra, to Aristotle's systematic empiricism, to friar Occam's advances in logic, to Francis Bacon's inductive reasoning, to Descartes's application of the scientific method. A growing sophistication with managing risk, along with a nuanced understanding of human behavior and advances in technology that support and mimic cognitive processes, has improved decision making in many situations. Even so, the history of decision-making strategies--captured in this time line and examined in the four accompanying essays on risk, group dynamics, technology, and instinct--has not marched steadily toward perfect rationalism. Twentieth-century theorists showed that the costs of acquiring information lead executives to make do with only good-enough decisions. Worse, people decide against their own economic interests even when they know better. And in the absence of emotion, it's impossible to make any decisions at all. Erroneous framing, bounded awareness, excessive optimism: The debunking of Descartes's rational man threatens to swamp our confidence in our choices. Is it really surprising, then, that even as technology dramatically increases our access to information, Malcolm Gladwell extols the virtues of gut decisions made, literally, in the blink of an eye?

  7. Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P

    2015-12-15

    A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a functional localizer to identify the neural signature that reflects sensory-specific processes, and subsequently traced this signature while subjects were engaged in a perceptual decision making task. Our results revealed a temporal dissociation in which sensory processing was limited to an early time window and consistent with occipital areas, whereas decision-related processing became increasingly pronounced over time, and involved parietal and frontal areas. We found that the sensory processing accurately reflected the physical stimulus, irrespective of the eventual decision. Moreover, the sensory representation was stable and maintained over time when it was required for a subsequent decision, but unstable and variable over time when it was task-irrelevant. In contrast, decision-related activity displayed long-lasting sustained components. Together, our approach dissects neuro-anatomically and functionally distinct contributions to perceptual decisions.

  8. Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P.

    2015-01-01

    A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a functional localizer to identify the neural signature that reflects sensory-specific processes, and subsequently traced this signature while subjects were engaged in a perceptual decision making task. Our results revealed a temporal dissociation in which sensory processing was limited to an early time window and consistent with occipital areas, whereas decision-related processing became increasingly pronounced over time, and involved parietal and frontal areas. We found that the sensory processing accurately reflected the physical stimulus, irrespective of the eventual decision. Moreover, the sensory representation was stable and maintained over time when it was required for a subsequent decision, but unstable and variable over time when it was task-irrelevant. In contrast, decision-related activity displayed long-lasting sustained components. Together, our approach dissects neuro-anatomically and functionally distinct contributions to perceptual decisions. PMID:26666393

  9. Strategic Decision Making Paradigms: A Primer for Senior Leaders

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    decision making . STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING Strategic Change: There are several strategic...influenced by stakeholders outside of the organization. The Ontology of Strategic Decision Making . Strategic decisions are non-routine and involve...Coates USAWC, July 2009 5 The Complexity of Strategic Decision Making Strategic decisions entail “ill-structured,”6 “messy” or

  10. Making better decisions in uncertain times (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, C.

    2013-12-01

    Scientific information about climate change and other human impacts on the environment are increasingly available and sought after (often in the form of probabilistic forecasts or technical information related to engineering solutions). However, it is increasingly apparent that there are barriers to the use of this information by decision makers - either from its lack of application altogether, its usability for people without scientific backgrounds, or its ability to inform sound decisions and widespread behavior change. While the argument has been made that an information deficit is to blame, we argue that there is also a motivation deficit contributing to a lack of understanding of information about climate change impacts and solutions. Utilizing insight from over thirty years of research in social and cognitive psychology, in addition to other social sciences, the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) seeks to understand how people make environmental decisions under conditions of uncertainty, and how these decisions can be improved. This presentation will focus specifically on recent research that has come forth since the 2009 publication of CRED's popular guide 'The Psychology of Climate Change Communication: A Guide for Scientists, Journalists, Educators, Political Aides, and the Interested Public.' Utilizing case studies from real world examples, this talk will explore how decision making can be improved through a better understanding of how people perceive and process uncertainty and risk. It will explore techniques such as choice architecture and 'nudging' behavior change, how social goals and group participation affect decision making, and how framing of environmental information influences mitigative behavior.

  11. Strategic Control in Decision Making under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatraman, Vinod; Huettel, Scott

    2012-01-01

    Complex economic decisions – whether investing money for retirement or purchasing some new electronic gadget – often involve uncertainty about the likely consequences of our choices. Critical for resolving that uncertainty are strategic meta-decision processes, which allow people to simplify complex decision problems, to evaluate outcomes against a variety of contexts, and to flexibly match behavior to changes in the environment. In recent years, substantial research implicates the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) in the flexible control of behavior. However, nearly all such evidence comes from paradigms involving executive function or response selection, not complex decision making. Here, we review evidence that demonstrates that the dmPFC contributes to strategic control in complex decision making. This region contains a functional topography such that the posterior dmPFC supports response-related control while the anterior dmPFC supports strategic control. Activation in the anterior dmPFC signals changes in how a decision problem is represented, which in turn can shape computational processes elsewhere in the brain. Based on these findings, we argue both for generalized contributions of the dmPFC to cognitive control, and for specific computational roles for its subregions depending upon the task demands and context. We also contend that these strategic considerations are also likely to be critical for decision making in other domains, including interpersonal interactions in social settings. PMID:22487037

  12. Project valuation and investment decisions: CAPM versus arbitrage

    OpenAIRE

    Magni, Carlo Alberto

    2007-01-01

    This paper shows that (i) project valuation via disequilibrium NPV+CAPM contradicts valuation via arbitrage pricing, (ii) standard CAPM-minded decision makers may fail to profit from arbitrage opportunities, (iii) standard CAPM-based valuation violates value additivity. As a consequence, the standard use of CAPM for project valuation and decision making should be reconsidered.

  13. Clinical decision making: how surgeons do it.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crebbin, Wendy; Beasley, Spencer W; Watters, David A K

    2013-06-01

    Clinical decision making is a core competency of surgical practice. It involves two distinct types of mental process best considered as the ends of a continuum, ranging from intuitive and subconscious to analytical and conscious. In practice, individual decisions are usually reached by a combination of each, according to the complexity of the situation and the experience/expertise of the surgeon. An expert moves effortlessly along this continuum, according to need, able to apply learned rules or algorithms to specific presentations, choosing these as a result of either pattern recognition or analytical thinking. The expert recognizes and responds quickly to any mismatch between what is observed and what was expected, coping with gaps in information and making decisions even where critical data may be uncertain or unknown. Even for experts, the cognitive processes involved are difficult to articulate as they tend to be very complex. However, if surgeons are to assist trainees in developing their decision-making skills, the processes need to be identified and defined, and the competency needs to be measurable. This paper examines the processes of clinical decision making in three contexts: making a decision about how to manage a patient; preparing for an operative procedure; and reviewing progress during an operative procedure. The models represented here are an exploration of the complexity of the processes, designed to assist surgeons understand how expert clinical decision making occurs and to highlight the challenge of teaching these skills to surgical trainees. © 2013 The Authors. ANZ Journal of Surgery © 2013 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

  14. The hidden traps in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, J S; Keeney, R L; Raiffa, H

    1998-01-01

    Bad decisions can often be traced back to the way the decisions were made--the alternatives were not clearly defined, the right information was not collected, the costs and benefits were not accurately weighted. But sometimes the fault lies not in the decision-making process but rather in the mind of the decision maker. The way the human brain works can sabotage the choices we make. John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa examine eight psychological traps that are particularly likely to affect the way we make business decisions: The anchoring trap leads us to give disproportionate weight to the first information we receive. The statusquo trap biases us toward maintaining the current situation--even when better alternatives exist. The sunk-cost trap inclines us to perpetuate the mistakes of the past. The confirming-evidence trap leads us to seek out information supporting an existing predilection and to discount opposing information. The framing trap occurs when we misstate a problem, undermining the entire decision-making process. The overconfidence trap makes us overestimate the accuracy of our forecasts. The prudence trap leads us to be overcautious when we make estimates about uncertain events. And the recallability trap leads us to give undue weight to recent, dramatic events. The best way to avoid all the traps is awareness--forewarned is forearmed. But executives can also take other simple steps to protect themselves and their organizations from the various kinds of mental lapses. The authors show how to take action to ensure that important business decisions are sound and reliable.

  15. Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P.

    2015-01-01

    A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a funct...

  16. Stereotype threat affects financial decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Priyanka B; Steele, Claude M

    2010-10-01

    The research presented in this article provides the first evidence that one's decision making can be influenced by concerns about stereotypes and the devaluation of one's identity. Many studies document gender differences in decision making, and often attribute these differences to innate and stable factors, such as biological and hormonal differences. In three studies, we found that stereotype threat affected decision making and led to gender differences in loss-aversion and risk-aversion behaviors. In Study 1, women subjected to stereotype threat in academic and business settings were more loss averse than both men and women who were not facing the threat of being viewed in light of negative stereotypes. We found no gender differences in loss-aversion behavior in the absence of stereotype threat. In Studies 2a and 2b, we found the same pattern of effects for risk-aversion behavior that we had observed for loss-aversion behavior. In addition, in Study 2b, ego depletion mediated the effects of stereotype threat on women's decision making. These results suggest that individuals' decision making can be influenced by stereotype concerns.

  17. Logical and Decisive Combining Criterion for Binary Group Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Vrana

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available A new combining criterion, the Multiplicative Proportional Deviative Influence (MPDI is presented for combining or aggregating multi-expert numerical judgments in Yes-or-No type ill-structured group decision making situations. This newly proposed criterion performs well in comparison with the widely used aggregation means: the Arithmetic Mean (AM, and Geometric Mean (GM, especially in better reflecting the degree of agreement between criteria levels or numerical experts’ judgments. The MPDI can be considered as another class of combining criteria that make effect of the degree of agreement among multiple numerical judgments. The MPDI is applicable in integrating several collaborative or synergistic decision making systems through combining final numerical decision outputs. A discussion and generalization of the proposed MPDI is discussed withnumerical example.

  18. [Shared medical decision making in gynaecology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    This, P; Panel, P

    2010-02-01

    When two options or more can be chosen in medical care, the final decision implies two steps: facts analysis, and patient evaluation of preferences. Shared Medical Decision-Making is a rational conceptual frame that can be used in such cases. In this paper, we describe the concept, its practical modalities, and the questions raised by its use. In gynaecology, many medical situations involve "sensitive preferences choice": for example, contraceptive choice, menorrhagia treatment, and approach of menopause. Some tools from the "Shared Medical Decision Making" concept are useful to structure medical consultations, to convey information, and to reveal patients preferences. Decision aid are used in clinical research settings, but some of them may also be easily used in usual practice, and help physicians to improve both quality and traceability of the decisional process. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  19. Decision-making and environmental impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Elmquist, Helena; Lindgren, Urban; Mäkilä, Kalle

    2004-01-01

    This report describes an interdisciplinary study combining social sciences and natural sciences in an integrated simulation model. The integrated dynamic simulation model consists of the interplay between the decision-making farmer, the physical flows at the farm and the structural conditions that influence the business. The central question studied here concerned the energy use, environmental impacts and business economics of various decision models in comparison to different levels of envir...

  20. Optimising decision making in mastitis control

    OpenAIRE

    Down, P.M.

    2016-01-01

    Mastitis remains one of the most common diseases of dairy cows and represents a large economic loss to the industry as well as a considerable welfare issue to the cows affected. Decisions are routinely made about the treatment and control of mastitis despite evidence being sparse regarding the likely consequences in terms of clinical efficacy and return on investment. The aim of this thesis was to enhance decision making around the treatment and prevention of mastitis using probabilistic meth...

  1. Essays on microeconomics and statistical decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Nieto Barthaburu, Augusto

    2006-01-01

    Chapter I of this dissertation addresses the problem of optimally forecasting a binary variable based on a vector of covariates in the context of two different decision making environments. First we consider a single decision maker with given preferences, who has to choose between two actions on the basis of an unobserved binary outcome. Previous research has shown that traditional prediction methods, such as a logit regression estimated by maximum likelihood and combined with a cutoff, may p...

  2. Sensemaking Strategies for Ethical Decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caughron, Jay J; Antes, Alison L; Stenmark, Cheryl K; Thiel, Chaise E; Wang, Xiaoqian; Mumford, Michael D

    2011-01-01

    The current study uses a sensemaking model and thinking strategies identified in earlier research to examine ethical decision-making. Using a sample of 163 undergraduates, a low fidelity simulation approach is used to study the effects personal involvement (in causing the problem and personal involvement in experiencing the outcomes of the problem) could have on the use of cognitive reasoning strategies that have been shown to promote ethical decision-making. A mediated model is presented which suggests that environmental factors influence reasoning strategies, reasoning strategies influence sensemaking, and sensemaking in turn influences ethical decision-making. Findings were mixed but generally supported the hypothesized model. Interestingly, framing the outcomes of ethically charged situations in terms of more global organizational outcomes rather than personal outcomes was found to promote the use of pro-ethical cognitive reasoning strategies.

  3. The evolutionary roots of human decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Laurie R; Rosati, Alexandra G

    2015-01-03

    Humans exhibit a suite of biases when making economic decisions. We review recent research on the origins of human decision making by examining whether similar choice biases are seen in nonhuman primates, our closest phylogenetic relatives. We propose that comparative studies can provide insight into four major questions about the nature of human choice biases that cannot be addressed by studies of our species alone. First, research with other primates can address the evolution of human choice biases and identify shared versus human-unique tendencies in decision making. Second, primate studies can constrain hypotheses about the psychological mechanisms underlying such biases. Third, comparisons of closely related species can identify when distinct mechanisms underlie related biases by examining evolutionary dissociations in choice strategies. Finally, comparative work can provide insight into the biological rationality of economically irrational preferences.

  4. Neural Basis of Strategic Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Daeyeol; Seo, Hyojung

    2016-01-01

    Human choice behaviors during social interactions often deviate from the predictions of game theory. This might arise partly from the limitations in the cognitive abilities necessary for recursive reasoning about the behaviors of others. In addition, during iterative social interactions, choices might change dynamically as knowledge about the intentions of others and estimates for choice outcomes are incrementally updated via reinforcement learning. Some of the brain circuits utilized during social decision making might be general-purpose and contribute to isomorphic individual and social decision making. By contrast, regions in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and temporal parietal junction (TPJ) might be recruited for cognitive processes unique to social decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Family decision-making during food buying

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Maria Kümpel

    Decision-making during food buying is a joint family activity involving both parents and children. Children manage to achieve a high degree of influence on many decisions, among other things, because they participate actively and help out doing various tasks. These decisions may turn out...... to be a choice of unhealthy food. Many decisions are made at the supermarket or other food shops, and food packaging is often used in the comparison of food products. Only rarely do families use nutritional information on food labels due to several problems in the understanding of these labels; this may result...... in difficulties in distinguishing among healthy and unhealthy food. Both parents and children being active in the decision process may lead to conflicts due to gaps in preference such as between healthy and unhealthy food. Families solve these conflicts via open communication patterns and a use of various...

  6. [Kairos. Decision-making in medical ethics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jousset, David

    2014-06-01

    This paper assesses the decision making patterns in medical ethics: the formalized pattern of decision science, the meditative pattern of an art of judgement and lastly the still-to-be-elaborated pattern of kairology or sense of the right time. The ethical decision is to be thought out in the conditions of medical action while resorting to the philosophical concepts that shed light on the issue. And it is precisely where medicine and philosophy of human action meet that the Greek notion of kairos, or "propitious moment", evokes the critical point where decision has to do with what is vital. Reflection shows that this kairos can be thought out outside the sacrificial pattern (deciding comes down to killing a possibility) by understanding the opportune moment as a sign of ethical action, as the condition for the formation of the subject (making a decision) and finally as a new relationship to time, including in the context of medical urgency. Thus with an approach to clinical ethics centred on the relation to the individual, the focus is less on the probabilistic knowledge of the decidable than on the meaning of the decision, and the undecidable comes to be accepted as an infinite dimension going beyond the limits of our acts, which makes the contingency and the grandeur of human responsibility.

  7. Decision making as a window on cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shadlen, Michael N; Kiani, Roozbeh

    2013-10-30

    A decision is a commitment to a proposition or plan of action based on information and values associated with the possible outcomes. The process operates in a flexible timeframe that is free from the immediacy of evidence acquisition and the real time demands of action itself. Thus, it involves deliberation, planning, and strategizing. This Perspective focuses on perceptual decision making in nonhuman primates and the discovery of neural mechanisms that support accuracy, speed, and confidence in a decision. We suggest that these mechanisms expose principles of cognitive function in general, and we speculate about the challenges and directions before the field. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. A dataset of human decision-making in teamwork management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Han; Shen, Zhiqi; Miao, Chunyan; Leung, Cyril; Chen, Yiqiang; Fauvel, Simon; Lin, Jun; Cui, Lizhen; Pan, Zhengxiang; Yang, Qiang

    2017-01-01

    Today, most endeavours require teamwork by people with diverse skills and characteristics. In managing teamwork, decisions are often made under uncertainty and resource constraints. The strategies and the effectiveness of the strategies different people adopt to manage teamwork under different situations have not yet been fully explored, partially due to a lack of detailed large-scale data. In this paper, we describe a multi-faceted large-scale dataset to bridge this gap. It is derived from a game simulating complex project management processes. It presents the participants with different conditions in terms of team members' capabilities and task characteristics for them to exhibit their decision-making strategies. The dataset contains detailed data reflecting the decision situations, decision strategies, decision outcomes, and the emotional responses of 1,144 participants from diverse backgrounds. To our knowledge, this is the first dataset simultaneously covering these four facets of decision-making. With repeated measurements, the dataset may help establish baseline variability of decision-making in teamwork management, leading to more realistic decision theoretic models and more effective decision support approaches.

  9. Braving difficult choices alone: children's and adolescents' medical decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azzurra Ruggeri

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: What role should minors play in making medical decisions? The authors examined children's and adolescents' desire to be involved in serious medical decisions and the emotional consequences associated with them. METHODS: Sixty-three children and 76 adolescents were presented with a cover story about a difficult medical choice. Participants were tested in one of four conditions: (1 own informed choice; (2 informed parents' choice to amputate; (3 informed parents' choice to continue a treatment; and (4 uninformed parents' choice to amputate. In a questionnaire, participants were asked about their choices, preference for autonomy, confidence, and emotional reactions when faced with a difficult hypothetical medical choice. RESULTS: Children and adolescents made different choices and participants, especially adolescents, preferred to make the difficult choice themselves, rather than having a parent make it. Children expressed fewer negative emotions than adolescents. Providing information about the alternatives did not affect participants' responses. CONCLUSIONS: Minors, especially adolescents, want to be responsible for their own medical decisions, even when the choice is a difficult one. For the adolescents, results suggest that the decision to be made, instead of the agent making the decision, is the main element influencing their emotional responses and decision confidence. For children, results suggest that they might be less able than adolescents to project how they would feel. The results, overall, draw attention to the need to further investigate how we can better involve minors in the medical decision-making process.

  10. Braving difficult choices alone: children's and adolescents' medical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggeri, Azzurra; Gummerum, Michaela; Hanoch, Yaniv

    2014-01-01

    What role should minors play in making medical decisions? The authors examined children's and adolescents' desire to be involved in serious medical decisions and the emotional consequences associated with them. Sixty-three children and 76 adolescents were presented with a cover story about a difficult medical choice. Participants were tested in one of four conditions: (1) own informed choice; (2) informed parents' choice to amputate; (3) informed parents' choice to continue a treatment; and (4) uninformed parents' choice to amputate. In a questionnaire, participants were asked about their choices, preference for autonomy, confidence, and emotional reactions when faced with a difficult hypothetical medical choice. Children and adolescents made different choices and participants, especially adolescents, preferred to make the difficult choice themselves, rather than having a parent make it. Children expressed fewer negative emotions than adolescents. Providing information about the alternatives did not affect participants' responses. Minors, especially adolescents, want to be responsible for their own medical decisions, even when the choice is a difficult one. For the adolescents, results suggest that the decision to be made, instead of the agent making the decision, is the main element influencing their emotional responses and decision confidence. For children, results suggest that they might be less able than adolescents to project how they would feel. The results, overall, draw attention to the need to further investigate how we can better involve minors in the medical decision-making process.

  11. Braving Difficult Choices Alone: Children's and Adolescents' Medical Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggeri, Azzurra; Gummerum, Michaela; Hanoch, Yaniv

    2014-01-01

    Objective What role should minors play in making medical decisions? The authors examined children's and adolescents' desire to be involved in serious medical decisions and the emotional consequences associated with them. Methods Sixty-three children and 76 adolescents were presented with a cover story about a difficult medical choice. Participants were tested in one of four conditions: (1) own informed choice; (2) informed parents' choice to amputate; (3) informed parents' choice to continue a treatment; and (4) uninformed parents' choice to amputate. In a questionnaire, participants were asked about their choices, preference for autonomy, confidence, and emotional reactions when faced with a difficult hypothetical medical choice. Results Children and adolescents made different choices and participants, especially adolescents, preferred to make the difficult choice themselves, rather than having a parent make it. Children expressed fewer negative emotions than adolescents. Providing information about the alternatives did not affect participants' responses. Conclusions Minors, especially adolescents, want to be responsible for their own medical decisions, even when the choice is a difficult one. For the adolescents, results suggest that the decision to be made, instead of the agent making the decision, is the main element influencing their emotional responses and decision confidence. For children, results suggest that they might be less able than adolescents to project how they would feel. The results, overall, draw attention to the need to further investigate how we can better involve minors in the medical decision-making process. PMID:25084274

  12. Interference effects of categorization on decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zheng; Busemeyer, Jerome R

    2016-05-01

    Many decision making tasks in life involve a categorization process, but the effects of categorization on subsequent decision making has rarely been studied. This issue was explored in three experiments (N=721), in which participants were shown a face stimulus on each trial and performed variations of categorization-decision tasks. On C-D trials, they categorized the stimulus and then made an action decision; on X-D trials, they were told the category and then made an action decision; on D-alone trials, they only made an action decision. An interference effect emerged in some of the conditions, such that the probability of an action on the D-alone trials (i.e., when there was no explicit categorization before the decision) differed from the total probability of the same action on the C-D or X-D trials (i.e., when there was explicit categorization before the decision). Interference effects are important because they indicate a violation of the classical law of total probability, which is assumed by many cognitive models. Across all three experiments, a complex pattern of interference effects systematically occurred for different types of stimuli and for different types of categorization-decision tasks. These interference effects present a challenge for traditional cognitive models, such as Markov and signal detection models, but a quantum cognition model, called the belief-action entanglement (BAE) model, predicted that these results could occur. The BAE model employs the quantum principles of superposition and entanglement to explain the psychological mechanisms underlying the puzzling interference effects. The model can be applied to many important and practical categorization-decision situations in life. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. On emotion specificity in decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcel Zeelenberg

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a motivational account of the impact of emotion on decision making, termed the feeling-is-for-doing approach. We first describe the psychology of emotion and argue for a need to be specific when studying emotion's impact on decision making. Next we describe what our approach entails and how it relates emotion, via motivation to behavior. Then we offer two illustrations of our own research that provide support for two important elements in our reasoning. We end with specifying four criteria that we consider to be important when studying how feeling guides our everyday doing.

  14. Narrative medicine and decision-making capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahr, Greg

    2015-06-01

    The author proposes a new model for the assessment of decision-making capacity based on the principles of narrative medicine. The narrative method proposed by the author addresses the hidden power realtionships implicit in the current model of capacity assessment. Sample cases are reviewed using the traditional model in comparison with the narrative model. Narrative medicine provides an effective model for the assessment of decision-making capacity. Deficiencies in the traditional model capacity assessment can be effectively addressed using narrative strategies. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Heuristics in Managing Complex Clinical Decision Tasks in Experts' Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Roosan; Weir, Charlene; Del Fiol, Guilherme

    2014-09-01

    Clinical decision support is a tool to help experts make optimal and efficient decisions. However, little is known about the high level of abstractions in the thinking process for the experts. The objective of the study is to understand how clinicians manage complexity while dealing with complex clinical decision tasks. After approval from the Institutional Review Board (IRB), three clinical experts were interviewed the transcripts from these interviews were analyzed. We found five broad categories of strategies by experts for managing complex clinical decision tasks: decision conflict, mental projection, decision trade-offs, managing uncertainty and generating rule of thumb. Complexity is created by decision conflicts, mental projection, limited options and treatment uncertainty. Experts cope with complexity in a variety of ways, including using efficient and fast decision strategies to simplify complex decision tasks, mentally simulating outcomes and focusing on only the most relevant information. Understanding complex decision making processes can help design allocation based on the complexity of task for clinical decision support design.

  16. Joint project to implement a training course/seminar for high-level decision making officals on nuclear policy between Korea and IAEA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, E. J.; Suh, S. H.; Kim, S. H. and others

    2001-09-01

    Through this project, the KAERI has published a english text book titled 'Nuclear Power project: Policy and Korean Experience' with the cooperation with the Agency. Korean experts, who have more than 30 years experiences in nuclear policy and nuclear power project management, involved to prepare the contents. Experts, who are working for Department of Nuclear Energy and Department of Technical Cooperation in the Agency, reviewed the contents. The KAERI has provided a training course/seminar for a high-level delegation of nuclear policy decision makers, which is consisted of 3 deputy ministers and 3 general directors in Viet Nam Communist Party, Assembly, Government Departments, upon the agreement between Vietnam Atomic Energy Commission (VAEC) and MOST at Hanoi in November 2000. The KAERI decided to provide the IAEA regional training course for middle level managers of nuclear policy and project management in RCA member states in November 2001 and 2002 under the cooperation with the Agency and the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA). The training course curricula, a english text book will be utilized as basic technical materials to promote the national nuclear cooperation program with the developing countries, that are considering to introduce the first or a new nuclear power plant, such as China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Morocco, Egypt, Ukraine, etc. Through the project, the bilateral nuclear cooperation between Viet Nam and Korea in the field of nuclear manpower development has improved practically. The KAERI has decided to provide on-the job-training program for Vietnamese experts in the field of nuclear policy, safety analysis, thermal-hydraulic analysis, etc under the 2000 KISTEP Scientist Exchange Program

  17. Joint project to implement a training course/seminar for high-level decision making officals on nuclear policy between Korea and IAEA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, E. J.; Suh, S. H.; Kim, S. H. and others

    2001-09-01

    Through this project, the KAERI has published a english text book titled 'Nuclear Power project: Policy and Korean Experience' with the cooperation with the Agency. Korean experts, who have more than 30 years experiences in nuclear policy and nuclear power project management, involved to prepare the contents. Experts, who are working for Department of Nuclear Energy and Department of Technical Cooperation in the Agency, reviewed the contents. The KAERI has provided a training course/seminar for a high-level delegation of nuclear policy decision makers, which is consisted of 3 deputy ministers and 3 general directors in Viet Nam Communist Party, Assembly, Government Departments, upon the agreement between Vietnam Atomic Energy Commission (VAEC) and MOST at Hanoi in November 2000. The KAERI decided to provide the IAEA regional training course for middle level managers of nuclear policy and project management in RCA member states in November 2001 and 2002 under the cooperation with the Agency and the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA). The training course curricula, a english text book will be utilized as basic technical materials to promote the national nuclear cooperation program with the developing countries, that are considering to introduce the first or a new nuclear power plant, such as China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Morocco, Egypt, Ukraine, etc. Through the project, the bilateral nuclear cooperation between Viet Nam and Korea in the field of nuclear manpower development has improved practically. The KAERI has decided to provide on-the job-training program for Vietnamese experts in the field of nuclear policy, safety analysis, thermal-hydraulic analysis, etc under the 2000 KISTEP Scientist Exchange Program.

  18. Biotechnology and Consumer Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sax, Joanna K

    Society is facing major challenges in climate change, health care and overall quality of life. Scientific advances to address these areas continue to grow, with overwhelming evidence that the application of highly tested forms of biotechnology is safe and effective. Despite scientific consensus in these areas, consumers appear reluctant to support their use. Research that helps to understand consumer decision-making and the public’s resistance to biotechnologies such as vaccines, fluoridated water programs and genetically engineered food, will provide great social value. This article is forward-thinking in that it suggests that important research in behavioral decision-making, specifically affect and ambiguity, can be used to help consumers make informed choices about major applications of biotechnology. This article highlights some of the most controversial examples: vaccinations, genetically engineered food, rbST treated dairy cows, fluoridated water, and embryonic stem cell research. In many of these areas, consumers perceive the risks as high, but the experts calculate the risks as low. Four major thematic approaches are proposed to create a roadmap for policymakers to consider for policy design and implementation in controversial areas of biotechnology. This article articulates future directions for studies that implement decision-making research to allow consumers to appropriately assign risk to their options and make informed decisions.

  19. Shared decision making, paternalism and patient choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandman, Lars; Munthe, Christian

    2010-03-01

    In patient centred care, shared decision making is a central feature and widely referred to as a norm for patient centred medical consultation. However, it is far from clear how to distinguish SDM from standard models and ideals for medical decision making, such as paternalism and patient choice, and e.g., whether paternalism and patient choice can involve a greater degree of the sort of sharing involved in SDM and still retain their essential features. In the article, different versions of SDM are explored, versions compatible with paternalism and patient choice as well as versions that go beyond these traditional decision making models. Whenever SDM is discussed or introduced it is of importance to be clear over which of these different versions are being pursued, since they connect to basic values and ideals of health care in different ways. It is further argued that we have reason to pursue versions of SDM involving, what is called, a high level dynamics in medical decision-making. This leaves four alternative models to choose between depending on how we balance between the values of patient best interest, patient autonomy, and an effective decision in terms of patient compliance or adherence: Shared Rational Deliberative Patient Choice, Shared Rational Deliberative Paternalism, Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision, and Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise. In relation to these models it is argued that we ideally should use the Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision model. However, when the patient and professional fail to reach consensus we will have reason to pursue the Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise model since this will best harmonise between the different values at stake: patient best interest, patient autonomy, patient adherence and a continued care relationship.

  20. Conflict when making decisions about dialysis modality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Nien-Hsin; Lin, Yu-Ping; Liang, Shu-Yuan; Tung, Heng-Hsin; Tsay, Shiow-Luan; Wang, Tsae-Jyy

    2018-01-01

    To explore decisional conflict and its influencing factors on choosing dialysis modality in patients with end-stage renal diseases. The influencing factors investigated include demographics, predialysis education, dialysis knowledge, decision self-efficacy and social support. Making dialysis modality decisions can be challenging for patients with end-stage renal diseases; there are pros and cons to both haemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis. Patients are often uncertain as to which one will be the best alternative for them. This decisional conflict increases the likelihood of making a decision that is not based on the patient's values or preferences and may result in undesirable postdecisional consequences. Addressing factors predisposing patients to decisional conflict helps to facilitate informed decision-making and then to improve healthcare quality. A predictive correlational cross-sectional study design was used. Seventy patients were recruited from the outpatient dialysis clinics of two general hospitals in Taiwan. Data were collected with study questionnaires, including questions on demographics, dialysis modality and predialysis education, the Dialysis Knowledge Scale, the Decision Self-Efficacy scale, the Social Support Scale, and the Decisional Conflict Scale. The mean score on the Decisional Conflict Scale was 29.26 (SD = 22.18). Decision self-efficacy, dialysis modality, predialysis education, professional support and dialysis knowledge together explained 76.4% of the variance in decisional conflict. Individuals who had lower decision self-efficacy, did not receive predialysis education on both haemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis, had lower dialysis knowledge and perceived lower professional support reported higher decisional conflict on choosing dialysis modality. When providing decisional support to predialysis stage patients, practitioners need to increase patients' decision self-efficacy, provide both haemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis

  1. Child Migration Decision Making in Ghana: The Actors and Processes

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Agribotix GCS 077

    The discourse on child migration decision making tends to present children as vulnerable and .... methods approach in a family migration research project with 37 families who moved within .... system (Hart, 1971), with many members living in common compounds in different household ... including housing, transport, water.

  2. Computer Supported Decision Making in Therapy of Arterial Hypertension

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Peleška, Jan; Švejda, David; Zvárová, Jana

    1997-01-01

    Roč. 45, 1/2 (1997), s. 25-29 ISSN 1386-5056 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA313/93/0616 Grant - others:COPERNICUS(XE) JRP-10053 Keywords : computer supported decision making * microsoft access language * therapy of arterial hypertension

  3. Realism and Impartiality: Making Sustainability Effective in Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastons, Miquel; Armengou, Jaume

    2017-08-01

    There is both individual and collective widespread concern in society about the impact of human activity and the effects of our decisions on the physical and social environment. This concern is included within the idea of sustainability. The meaning of the concept is still ambiguous and its practical effectiveness disputed. Like many other authors, this article uses as a starting point the definition proposed by the World Commission on Environment and Development (Our common future, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1987), considering it to be a proposal for changing the assessment of the effects of decisions, from at least two perspectives: (1) what effects we should consider and (2) how we should assess them. Based on this double perspective, sustainability is explored as a method for decision-making which both expands the assessment of the consequences, and also provides an objective criterion for such assessment. It will be argued that the idea of sustainability, seen from this perspective, brings to decision-making two qualities which had been partially lost: realism and impartiality. In turn, the criteria for realism and impartiality in decision-making can be used to identify the limitations of some partial approaches to sustainability, which suffer from insufficient realism (emotional altruism), insufficient impartiality (tactical altruism) or both phenomena at once (egoism). The article concludes by demonstrating how realism and impartiality provide the basis for a new form of sustainable decision-making (ethical sustainability), which is dependent on the development of two moral virtues, prudence and benevolence, and which brings practical effectiveness and ethical sense to the concept of sustainability.

  4. Dissolving decision making? : Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, S.

    2014-01-01

    This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making.

  5. Motivations Underlying Career Decision-Making Activities: The Career Decision-Making Autonomy Scale (CDMAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guay, Frederic

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of the present research was to develop and validate a measure of motivation toward career decision-making activities, the Career Decision-Making Autonomy Scale (CDMAS). The CDMAS is designed to assess the constructs of intrinsic motivation, identified regulation, introjected regulation, and external regulation. A longitudinal study was…

  6. Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mostert, P.; Kok, P.; Lange, F.P. de

    2015-01-01

    A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying

  7. Children Involvement on Family Purchase Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Jostein, Revina Wintry

    2013-01-01

    Children take big involvement in family decision making process today. There are several factors that make this phenomenon happen, such as media influence. Currently, the development of information and communication technology is so fast, indirectly encourages all parties, including the children to be able to follow the changes. There are two main objectives that will be examined, related with all the stated problems at the previous section, which are to analyze which product category does ch...

  8. Affective Biases and Heuristics in Decision Making : Emotion regulation as a factor for decision making competence

    OpenAIRE

    Hagman, William

    2013-01-01

    Stanovich and West (2008) explored if measures of cognitive ability ignored some important aspects of thinking itself, namely that cognitive ability alone is not enough to generally prevent biased thinking. In this thesis a series of decision making (DM) tasks is tested to see if emotion regulation (ER) is a factor for the decision process and therefore should be a measured in decision making competence. A set of DM tasks was compiled involving both affective and cognitive dimensions. 400 par...

  9. [Factors behind action, emotion, and decision making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Katsumi

    2009-12-01

    Human actions, emotions, and decision making are products of complex interactions between explicit and implicit processes at various levels of spatial and temporal scales. Although it may not be possible to obtain to experimental data for all the complexity of human behavioral and emotional processes in our everyday life, recent studies have investigated the effects of social contexts on actions, emotions, and decision making; these studies include those in the fields of experimental psychology, cognitive science, and neuroscience. In this paper, we review several empirical studies that exemplify how our actions, social emotions, and decision making are influenced by the presence of implicit external, rather than internal factors, particularly by presence of other individuals. The following are the main principles identified. (1) Unconscious behavioral contagion: Individuals tend to mimic others' actions. This tendency occurs unconsciously even when the observed and the to-be-executed movements are unrelated at various levels and aspects of behaviors (e. g., behavioral tempo and speed). (2) Neural substrates of social emotions: Various social emotions, including admiration, compassion, envy, and schadenfreude, are represented in neuronal networks that are similar to those of basic emotional processes. (3) Evasive nature of human decision making: Individuals tend to overrate their own subjective impression of and emotional reaction in forecasting affective reaction to events in the future, even though the predictive power of information from peer group is much larger in this regard. Individuals are seldom aware of the dissociation between their intended choice and excuted actions and are willing to give elaborate explanations for the choices they, in fact, did not make. Using these empirical examples, I will illustrate the considerable influences of implicit, unconscious processes on human actions, emotions, and decision making.

  10. Assessment of New Approaches in Geothermal Exploration Decision Making: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akar, S.; Young, K. R.

    2015-02-01

    Geothermal exploration projects have significant amount of risk associated with uncertainties encountered in the discovery of the geothermal resource. Understanding when and how to proceed in an exploration program, and when to walk away from a site, are two of the largest challenges for increased geothermal deployment. Current methodologies for exploration decision making is left to subjective by subjective expert opinion which can be incorrectly biased by expertise (e.g. geochemistry, geophysics), geographic location of focus, and the assumed conceptual model. The aim of this project is to develop a methodology for more objective geothermal exploration decision making at a given location, including go-no-go decision points to help developers and investors decide when to give up on a location. In this scope, two different approaches are investigated: 1) value of information analysis (VOIA) which is used for evaluating and quantifying the value of a data before they are purchased, and 2) enthalpy-based exploration targeting based on reservoir size, temperature gradient estimates, and internal rate of return (IRR). The first approach, VOIA, aims to identify the value of a particular data when making decisions with an uncertain outcome. This approach targets the pre-drilling phase of exploration. These estimated VOIs are highly affected by the size of the project and still have a high degree of subjectivity in assignment of probabilities. The second approach, exploration targeting, is focused on decision making during the drilling phase. It starts with a basic geothermal project definition that includes target and minimum required production capacity and initial budgeting for exploration phases. Then, it uses average temperature gradient, reservoir temperature estimates, and production capacity to define targets and go/no-go limits. The decision analysis in this approach is based on achieving a minimum IRR at each phase of the project. This second approach was

  11. Intelligent Information System to support decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathrin Rodríguez Llanes

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Making decisions is complicated in a generalized way, the materials and humans resources of the entity we belong to depends on it, such as the fulfillment of its goals. But when the situations are complex, making decisions turns into a very difficult work, due to the great amount of aspects to consider when making the right choice. To make this efficiently the administration must to consult an important volume of information, which generally, is scattered and in any different formats. That’s why appears the need of developing software that crowd together all that information and be capable of, by using powerful search engines and process algorithms improve the good decisions making process. Considering previous explanation, a complete freeware developed product is proposed, this constitutes a generic and multi-platform solution, that using artificial intelligence techniques, specifically the cases based reasoning, gives the possibility to leaders of any institution or organism of making the right choice in any situation.With client-server architecture, this system is consumed from web as a service and it can be perfectly integrated with a management system or the geographic information system to facilitate the business process.

  12. Decision-Making Styles in the Workplace

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Raffaldi

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Two procedures were adopted to assess decision-making styles in the workplace: (a the administration of traditional standardized self-report questionnaires and (b open-ended questions about the way respondents would take decisions in a critical business case. Seventy-four adults were given two questionnaires: the Preference for Intuition and Deliberation, which assesses “deliberative” or “intuitive” decision style, and the Style of Learning and Thinking, which assesses thinking styles as “left” (namely, analytical-systematic or “right” (that is, global-intuitive. Participants were also presented with a business case that involved taking a decision. Responses to the business case were used to classify approaches to decision making as “analytical-systematic” or “global-intuitive.” Results showed that the questionnaires correlated consistently with scores from the business case, thus supporting the notion that the assessment of decision style through self-report questionnaires is reliable and valid.

  13. Molecular neuroimaging of emotional decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Hidehiko

    2013-04-01

    With the dissemination of non-invasive human neuroimaging techniques such as fMRI and the advancement of cognitive science, neuroimaging studies focusing on emotions and social cognition have become established. Along with this advancement, behavioral economics taking emotional and social factors into account for economic decisions has been merged with neuroscientific studies, and this interdisciplinary approach is called neuroeconomics. Past neuroeconomics studies have demonstrated that subcortical emotion-related brain structures play an important role in "irrational" decision-making. The research field that investigates the role of central neurotransmitters in this process is worthy of further development. Here, we provide an overview of recent molecular neuroimaging studies to further the understanding of the neurochemical basis of "irrational" or emotional decision-making and the future direction, including clinical implications, of the field. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd and the Japan Neuroscience Society. All rights reserved.

  14. Biometric and intelligent decision making support

    CERN Document Server

    Kaklauskas, Arturas

    2015-01-01

    This book presents different methods for analyzing the body language (movement, position, use of personal space, silences, pauses and tone, the eyes, pupil dilation or constriction, smiles, body temperature and the like) for better understanding people’s needs and actions, including biometric data gathering and reading. Different studies described in this book indicate that sufficiently much data, information and knowledge can be gained by utilizing biometric technologies. This is the first, wide-ranging book that is devoted completely to the area of intelligent decision support systems, biometrics technologies and their integrations. This book is designated for scholars, practitioners and doctoral and master’s degree students in various areas and those who are interested in the latest biometric and intelligent decision making support problems and means for their resolutions, biometric and intelligent decision making support systems and the theory and practice of their integration and the opportunities fo...

  15. Ethical decision making in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, M D

    1989-12-01

    Contemporary nursing ethics education focuses on the use of an analytical model of ethical decision making for both its process and its content. Perhaps this is the case because it bears some resemblance to the nursing process, which is taught in a similar fashion. Thus, a deductivist method of ethical decision making fits within the same general schema of the hypotheticodeductive method of decision making that is taught for nursing diagnosis. Ethics requires that nurses respect persons, inform patients and secure their consent, not inflict harm, preserve the patient's quality of life, prevent harm and remove harmful conditions, do good for patients, and minimize risk to themselves. These are among the norms of obligation that guide ethical analysis and judgment in nursing practice and are the substance of the analytical model of ethical decision making. Nursing's ethics has established high ideals and strong demands for nurses. These are demands which nurses have met and ideals which have often been realized. Whatever the strength of our science, nursing is an inherently moral endeavor and is only as strong as its commitment to its ethical obligations and values. Between the grinding edges of the forces that affect it, nursing must establish its priorities among the aspects of its environment that it attempts to control. Ethics must be chief among those priorities.

  16. Career Decision-Making and Corporate Responsibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sainty, Rosemary

    2008-01-01

    This paper seeks to investigate the extent of influence of corporate (or organisational) responsibility on university students' career decision-making. It reports on a pilot study conducted at the University of Sydney which aims to: explore students' ethical, professional and social understanding regarding corporate responsibility; determine the…

  17. The Delphi Method And Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Villagrasa, Raimundo

    2015-01-01

    Se describe, analisa y critica el método Delphi, desarrollado para encontrar una opinión grupal para tomar decisiones de manera eficiente en una empresa. The article describes, analyzes and criticizes the Delphi method, developed to find a group opinion to make decisions in an efficient way in a firm.

  18. Recent developemts in multiple criteria decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Zionts

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Problems involving more than one criterion abound. To help in the solution of such problems, a field of management science and operations research known as multiple criteria decision making (MCDM has emerged to help solve such problems. In this paper we discuss some recent developments in this important field.

  19. Libre courseware for Bayesian decision making

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Suzdaleva, Evgenia

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 2 (2005), s. 1-3 ISSN 1860-7470 Grant - others:Commission EU(XE) 110330-CP-1-2003-1-ES-MINERVA-M Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : software tools * education * decision making Subject RIV: JC - Computer Hardware ; Software

  20. Mixing Methods in Assessing Coaches' Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergeer, Ineke; Lyle, John

    2007-01-01

    Mixing methods has recently achieved respectability as an appropriate approach to research design, offering a variety of advantages (Tashakkori & Teddlie, 2003). The purpose of this paper is to outline and evaluate a mixed methods approach within the domain of coaches' decision making. Illustrated with data from a policy-capturing study on…

  1. Student decision making in large group discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kustusch, Mary Bridget; Ptak, Corey; Sayre, Eleanor C.; Franklin, Scott V.

    2015-04-01

    It is increasingly common in physics classes for students to work together to solve problems and perform laboratory experiments. When students work together, they need to negotiate the roles and decision making within the group. We examine how a large group of students negotiates authority as part of their two week summer College Readiness Program at Rochester Institute of Technology. The program is designed to develop metacognitive skills in first generation and Deaf and hard-of-hearing (DHH) STEM undergraduates through cooperative group work, laboratory experimentation, and explicit reflection exercises. On the first full day of the program, the students collaboratively developed a sign for the word ``metacognition'' for which there is not a sign in American Sign Language. This presentation will focus on three aspects of the ensuing discussion: (1) how the instructor communicated expectations about decision making; (2) how the instructor promoted student-driven decision making rather than instructor-driven policy; and (3) one student's shifts in decision making behavior. We conclude by discussing implications of this research for activity-based physics instruction.

  2. Decision Making with Ultrasound in Rheumatology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. van der Ven (Myrthe)

    2018-01-01

    markdownabstractThe _first aim_ of this thesis was to evaluate the added value of ultrasound in clinical decision making in patients with arthralgia, patients with psoriasis and monitoring RA patients. Our _second aim_ was to increase sensitivity of power Doppler ultrasound for MCP joints.

  3. Emerging Educational Institutional Decision-Making Matrix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashford-Rowe, Kevin H.; Holt, Marnie

    2011-01-01

    The "emerging educational institutional decision-making matrix" is developed to allow educational institutions to adopt a rigorous and consistent methodology of determining which of the myriad of emerging educational technologies will be the most compelling for the institution, particularly ensuring that it is the educational or pedagogical but…

  4. Teaching Decision-Making in Multiple Dimensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barneva, Reneta P.; Brimkov, Valentin E.; Walters, Lisa M.

    2018-01-01

    In all areas of human activity, decision-making based on data analysis is very important. As the availability of data grows, it becomes critical to educate not only traditional students but also those individuals who are now in the workforce, as many of them are expected to manage the complex data streams and to provide evidence and guidance for…

  5. Hyperchaotic phenomena in dynamic decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Jesper Skovhus; Mosekilde, Erik; Sterman, John David

    1992-01-01

    of this article is to show how the decision making behavior of real people in simulated corporate environments can lead to chaotic, hyperchaotic and higher-order hyperchaotic phenomena. Characteristics features of these complicated forms of behavior are analyzed with particular emphasis on an interesting form...

  6. Decision Making and Systems Thinking: Educational Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yurtseven, M. Kudret; Buchanan, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Decision making in most universities is taught within the conventional OR/MS (Operations Research/Management Science) paradigm. This paradigm is known to be "hard" since it is consisted of mathematical tools, and normally suitable for solving structured problems. In complex situations the conventional OR/MS paradigm proves to be…

  7. Rational decision-making in inhibitory control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenoy, Pradeep; Yu, Angela J

    2011-01-01

    An important aspect of cognitive flexibility is inhibitory control, the ability to dynamically modify or cancel planned actions in response to changes in the sensory environment or task demands. We formulate a probabilistic, rational decision-making framework for inhibitory control in the stop signal paradigm. Our model posits that subjects maintain a Bayes-optimal, continually updated representation of sensory inputs, and repeatedly assess the relative value of stopping and going on a fine temporal scale, in order to make an optimal decision on when and whether to go on each trial. We further posit that they implement this continual evaluation with respect to a global objective function capturing the various reward and penalties associated with different behavioral outcomes, such as speed and accuracy, or the relative costs of stop errors and go errors. We demonstrate that our rational decision-making model naturally gives rise to basic behavioral characteristics consistently observed for this paradigm, as well as more subtle effects due to contextual factors such as reward contingencies or motivational factors. Furthermore, we show that the classical race model can be seen as a computationally simpler, perhaps neurally plausible, approximation to optimal decision-making. This conceptual link allows us to predict how the parameters of the race model, such as the stopping latency, should change with task parameters and individual experiences/ability.

  8. Emotion, decision-making and the brain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chang, L.J.; Sanfey, A.G.

    2008-01-01

    PURPOSE: Initial explorations in the burgeoning field of neuroeconomics have highlighted evidence supporting a potential dissociation between a fast automatic system and a slow deliberative controlled system. Growing research in the role of emotion in decision-making has attempted to draw parallels

  9. Rational Decision-Making in Inhibitory Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenoy, Pradeep; Yu, Angela J.

    2011-01-01

    An important aspect of cognitive flexibility is inhibitory control, the ability to dynamically modify or cancel planned actions in response to changes in the sensory environment or task demands. We formulate a probabilistic, rational decision-making framework for inhibitory control in the stop signal paradigm. Our model posits that subjects maintain a Bayes-optimal, continually updated representation of sensory inputs, and repeatedly assess the relative value of stopping and going on a fine temporal scale, in order to make an optimal decision on when and whether to go on each trial. We further posit that they implement this continual evaluation with respect to a global objective function capturing the various reward and penalties associated with different behavioral outcomes, such as speed and accuracy, or the relative costs of stop errors and go errors. We demonstrate that our rational decision-making model naturally gives rise to basic behavioral characteristics consistently observed for this paradigm, as well as more subtle effects due to contextual factors such as reward contingencies or motivational factors. Furthermore, we show that the classical race model can be seen as a computationally simpler, perhaps neurally plausible, approximation to optimal decision-making. This conceptual link allows us to predict how the parameters of the race model, such as the stopping latency, should change with task parameters and individual experiences/ability. PMID:21647306

  10. THERAPEUTIC DECISION-MAKING OF PHYSICIANS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    DENIG, P; HAAIJER-RUSKAMP, FM

    1992-01-01

    In this review the therapeutic decision-making process of physicians is described. This process is divided into two steps: the generation of a limited set of possible options (the 'evoked set') and the selection from this evoked set of a treatment for a specific patient. Factors that are important

  11. New Paradoxes of Risky Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birnbaum, Michael H.

    2008-01-01

    During the last 25 years, prospect theory and its successor, cumulative prospect theory, replaced expected utility as the dominant descriptive theories of risky decision making. Although these models account for the original Allais paradoxes, 11 new paradoxes show where prospect theories lead to self-contradiction or systematic false predictions.…

  12. Experienced General Music Teachers' Instructional Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Daniel C.; Matthews, Wendy K.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this descriptive study was to explore experienced general music teachers' decision-making processes. Participants included seven experienced, American general music teachers who contributed their views during two phases of data collection: (1) responses to three classroom scenarios; and (2) in-depth, semi-structured, follow-up…

  13. The temporal dynamics of speeded decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dutilh, G.

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation sheds light on the temporal dynamics of behavior in speeded decision making. Participants on reaction time (RT) tasks learn, get distracted, speed up, slow down, get confused, get bored, and eventually may start guessing. One can safely say that participants' behavior is dynamic.

  14. The cognitive error in decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pier Luigi Baldi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This issue deals with the partial data of a research in progress on focalization, pseudodiagnosticity and framing- effect in decision making, followed by the most important results of some experiments about the emotional aspects of the choice, and ends by stressing the potential contribution of the artificial neural networks to the medical diagnosis.

  15. Bounded Rationality in Individual Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Camerer, Colin F.

    1998-01-01

    The main objectives of this paper are: (i) To give a pithy, opinionated summary of what has been learned about bounded rationality in individual decision making from experiments in economics and psychology (drawing on my 1995 Handbook of Experimental Economics chapter); and (ii) mention some promising new directions for research which would be included if that chapter were written today.

  16. Surrogate decision making and intellectual virtue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Gregory L

    2014-01-01

    Patients can be harmed by a religiously motivated surrogate decision maker whose decisions are contrary to the standard of care; therefore, surrogate decision making should be held to a high standard. Stewart Eskew and Christopher Meyers proposed a two-part rule for deciding which religiously based decisions to honor: (1) a secular reason condition and (2) a rationality condition. The second condition is based on a coherence theory of rationality, which they claim is accessible, generous, and culturally sensitive. In this article, I will propose strengthening the rationality condition by grounding it in a theory of intellectual virtue, which is both rigorous and culturally sensitive. Copyright 2014 The Journal of Clinical Ethics. All rights reserved.

  17. Coastal Adaptation Planning for Sea Level Rise and Extremes: A Global Model for Adaptation Decision-making at the Local Level Given Uncertain Climate Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, D.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the potential economic and physical impacts of climate change on coastal resources involves evaluating a number of distinct adaptive responses. This paper presents a tool for such analysis, a spatially-disaggregated optimization model for adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). This decision-making framework fills a gap between very detailed studies of specific locations and overly aggregate global analyses. While CIAM is global in scope, the optimal adaptation strategy is determined at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006). The decision to pursue a given adaptation measure depends on local socioeconomic factors like income, population, and land values and how they develop over time, relative to the magnitude of potential coastal impacts, based on geophysical attributes like inundation zones and storm surge. For example, the model's decision to protect or retreat considers the costs of constructing and maintaining coastal defenses versus those of relocating people and capital to minimize damages from land inundation and coastal storms. Uncertain storm surge events are modeled with a generalized extreme value distribution calibrated to data on local surge extremes. Adaptation is optimized for the near-term outlook, in an "act then learn then act" framework that is repeated over the model time horizon. This framework allows the adaptation strategy to be flexibly updated, reflecting the process of iterative risk management. CIAM provides new estimates of the economic costs of SLR; moreover, these detailed results can be compactly represented in a set of adaptation and damage functions for use in integrated assessment models. Alongside the optimal result, CIAM evaluates suboptimal cases and finds that global costs could increase by an order of magnitude, illustrating the importance of adaptive capacity and coastal policy.

  18. Toward an Expanded Definition of Adaptive Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Susan D.

    1997-01-01

    Uses the lifespan, life-space model to examine the definition of adaptive decision making. Reviews the existing definition of adaptive decision making as "rational" decision making and offers alternate perspectives on decision making with an emphasis on the implications of using the model. Makes suggestions for future theory, research,…

  19. Modeling decision making as a support tool for policy making on renewable energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cannemi, Marco; García-Melón, Mónica; Aragonés-Beltrán, Pablo; Gómez-Navarro, Tomás

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a study on decision making models for the analysis of capital-risk investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. The aim of the work is to improve the support tools for policy makers in the field of renewable energy development. Analytic Network Process (ANP) helps to better understand capital-risk investors preferences towards different kinds of biomass fueled power plants. The results of the research allow public administration to better foresee the investors’ reaction to the incentive system, or to modify the incentive system to better drive investors’ decisions. Changing the incentive system is seen as major risk by investors. Therefore, public administration must design better and longer-term incentive systems, forecasting market reactions. For that, two scenarios have been designed, one showing a typical decision making process and another proposing an improved decision making scenario. A case study conducted in Italy has revealed that ANP allows understanding how capital-risk investors interpret the situation and make decisions when investing on biomass power plants; the differences between the interests of public administrations’s and promoters’, how decision making could be influenced by adding new decision criteria, and which case would be ranked best according to the decision models. - Highlights: • We applied ANP to the investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. • The aim is to improve the advising tools for renewable energy policy making. • A case study has been carried out with the help of two experts. • We designed two scenarios: decision making as it is and how could it be improved. • Results prove ANP is a fruitful tool enhancing participation and transparency

  20. Shared decision making: empowering the bedside nurse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slack, Stephanie M; Boguslawski, Jean M; Eickhoff, Rachel M; Klein, Kristi A; Pepin, Teresa M; Schrandt, Kevin; Wise, Carrie A; Zylstra, Jody A

    2005-12-01

    Shared decision making is a process that has empowered specialty nurses at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN, to solve a practice concern. Staff nurses recognized a lack of concise, collated information available that described what nurses need to know when caring for patients receiving chemotherapy. Many aspects of the administration process were knowledge and experience based and not easily retrievable. The Hematology/Oncology/Blood and Marrow Transplant Clinical Practice Committee identified this as a significant practice issue. Ideas were brainstormed regarding how to make the information available to nursing colleagues. The Chemotherapy Yellow Pages is a resource that was developed to facilitate the rapid retrieval of pertinent information for bedside nurses. The content of this article outlines a'model of shared decision making and the processes used to address and resolve the practice concern.

  1. Errors in Aviation Decision Making: Bad Decisions or Bad Luck?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Martin, Lynne; Davison, Jeannie; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Despite efforts to design systems and procedures to support 'correct' and safe operations in aviation, errors in human judgment still occur and contribute to accidents. In this paper we examine how an NDM (naturalistic decision making) approach might help us to understand the role of decision processes in negative outcomes. Our strategy was to examine a collection of identified decision errors through the lens of an aviation decision process model and to search for common patterns. The second, and more difficult, task was to determine what might account for those patterns. The corpus we analyzed consisted of tactical decision errors identified by the NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) from a set of accidents in which crew behavior contributed to the accident. A common pattern emerged: about three quarters of the errors represented plan-continuation errors, that is, a decision to continue with the original plan despite cues that suggested changing the course of action. Features in the context that might contribute to these errors were identified: (a) ambiguous dynamic conditions and (b) organizational and socially-induced goal conflicts. We hypothesize that 'errors' are mediated by underestimation of risk and failure to analyze the potential consequences of continuing with the initial plan. Stressors may further contribute to these effects. Suggestions for improving performance in these error-inducing contexts are discussed.

  2. The psychology of defendant plea decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redlich, Allison D; Bibas, Stephanos; Edkins, Vanessa A; Madon, Stephanie

    2017-01-01

    Every day, thousands of defendants, prosecutors, and defense attorneys must make guilty plea decisions, such as whether to accept a plea offer or proceed to trial. Most defendants opt to plead guilty; approximately 95% of state and federal convictions result from guilty pleas. In light of a newly emerging body of research and recent Supreme Court decisions on guilty pleas, this article asks and answers 2 questions: First, who pleads guilty and why? We describe the characteristics of those who are more or less likely to plead guilty, and examine the reasons why individuals plead guilty instead of proceeding to trial, exploring the cognitive, social influence, and developmental factors that underlie decision making. Second, are defendants' plea decisions valid, in that the decisions are made knowingly, intelligently, voluntarily, and with a factual basis of guilt? That is, do defendants who plead guilty understand and appreciate the conditions and consequences of their pleas, as required by law? Are innocent people induced to plead guilty to crimes they did not commit? We conclude with suggestions to move the field of plea research forward. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Familiarity and recollection in heuristic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwikert, Shane R; Curran, Tim

    2014-12-01

    Heuristics involve the ability to utilize memory to make quick judgments by exploiting fundamental cognitive abilities. In the current study we investigated the memory processes that contribute to the recognition heuristic and the fluency heuristic, which are both presumed to capitalize on the byproducts of memory to make quick decisions. In Experiment 1, we used a city-size comparison task while recording event-related potentials (ERPs) to investigate the potential contributions of familiarity and recollection to the 2 heuristics. ERPs were markedly different for recognition heuristic-based decisions and fluency heuristic-based decisions, suggesting a role for familiarity in the recognition heuristic and recollection in the fluency heuristic. In Experiment 2, we coupled the same city-size comparison task with measures of subjective preexperimental memory for each stimulus in the task. Although previous literature suggests the fluency heuristic relies on recognition speed alone, our results suggest differential contributions of recognition speed and recollected knowledge to these decisions, whereas the recognition heuristic relies on familiarity. Based on these results, we created a new theoretical framework that explains decisions attributed to both heuristics based on the underlying memory associated with the choice options. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  4. Before you make that big decision...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahneman, Daniel; Lovallo, Dan; Sibony, Olivier

    2011-06-01

    When an executive makes a big bet, he or she typically relies on the judgment of a team that has put together a proposal for a strategic course of action. After all, the team will have delved into the pros and cons much more deeply than the executive has time to do. The problem is, biases invariably creep into any team's reasoning-and often dangerously distort its thinking. A team that has fallen in love with its recommendation, for instance, may subconsciously dismiss evidence that contradicts its theories, give far too much weight to one piece of data, or make faulty comparisons to another business case. That's why, with important decisions, executives need to conduct a careful review not only of the content of recommendations but of the recommendation process. To that end, the authors-Kahneman, who won a Nobel Prize in economics for his work on cognitive biases; Lovallo of the University of Sydney; and Sibony of McKinsey-have put together a 12-question checklist intended to unearth and neutralize defects in teams' thinking. These questions help leaders examine whether a team has explored alternatives appropriately, gathered all the right information, and used well-grounded numbers to support its case. They also highlight considerations such as whether the team might be unduly influenced by self-interest, overconfidence, or attachment to past decisions. By using this practical tool, executives will build decision processes over time that reduce the effects of biases and upgrade the quality of decisions their organizations make. The payoffs can be significant: A recent McKinsey study of more than 1,000 business investments, for instance, showed that when companies worked to reduce the effects of bias, they raised their returns on investment by seven percentage points. Executives need to realize that the judgment of even highly experienced, superbly competent managers can be fallible. A disciplined decision-making process, not individual genius, is the key to good

  5. PSA as a tool for decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.; Lederman, L.

    1986-01-01

    The question on ''How safe is safe enough'' is being responded presently by deterministic criteria. Probabilistic criteria in support to more rational and less emotional decisions in regulatory and licensing issues, rationalization of resource allocation and research prioritization, among others, have a potential which is only marginally being explored. This paper discussed PSA limitations and proposes three areas for the use of PSA in decision making, namely: preventing accidents, mitigating accidents, and defining regulatory requirements. Current activities of the International Atomic Energy Agency in these areas are mentioned. PSA studies depict clearly the uncertainties and this is viewed as a positive aspect, which is unique to the use of probabilistic methods. (orig.)

  6. PSA as a tool for decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Niehaus, F; Lederman, L

    1986-05-01

    The question on ''How safe is safe enough'' is being responded presently by deterministic criteria. Probabilistic criteria in support to more rational and less emotional decisions in regulatory and licensing issues, rationalization of resource allocation and research prioritization, among others, have a potential which is only marginally being explored. This paper discussed PSA limitations and proposes three areas for the use of PSA in decision making, namely: preventing accidents, mitigating accidents, and defining regulatory requirements. Current activities of the International Atomic Energy Agency in these areas are mentioned. PSA studies depict clearly the uncertainties and this is viewed as a positive aspect, which is unique to the use of probabilistic methods.

  7. Entanglement production in quantum decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yukalov, V. I.; Sornette, D.

    2010-01-01

    The quantum decision theory introduced recently is formulated as a quantum theory of measurement. It describes prospect states represented by complex vectors of a Hilbert space over a prospect lattice. The prospect operators, acting in this space, form an involutive bijective algebra. A measure is defined for quantifying the entanglement produced by the action of prospect operators. This measure characterizes the level of complexity of prospects involved in decision making. An explicit expression is found for the maximal entanglement produced by the operators of multimode prospects.

  8. Triage: Making a Political Decision to Solve an Environmental Science Problem Through Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridolfi, Thomas

    1974-01-01

    A description is given of a class project concerned with examining a population problem and making some political decisions to solve it. A list of topics for the students to research as a basis for their decisions is provided. (DT)

  9. Information source exploitation/exploration and NPD decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jespersen, Kristina Risom

    different Scandinavian companies. Data was analyzed using hierarchical regression models across decision criteria dimensions and NPD stages as well as analyzing the combination of selected information sources. Rather than forwarding one optimal search behavior for the entire NPD process, we find optimal...... information search behavior at either end of the exploitation/exploration continuum. Additionally, we find that overexploitation and overexploration is caused by managerial bias. This creates managerial misbehavior at gate decision-points of the NPD process.......The purpose of this study is to examine how the exploration/exploitation continuum is applied by decision-makers in new product gate decision-making. Specifically, we analyze at gate decision-points how the evaluation of a new product project is affected by the information source exploitation...

  10. Effects of trial complexity on decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horowitz, I A; ForsterLee, L; Brolly, I

    1996-12-01

    The ability of a civil jury to render fair and rational decisions in complex trials has been questioned. However, the nature, dimensions, and effects of trial complexity on decision making have rarely been addressed. In this research, jury-eligible adults saw a videotape of a complex civil trial that varied in information load and complexity of the language of the witnesses. Information load and complexity differentially affected liability and compensatory decisions. An increase in the number of plaintiffs decreased blameworthiness assigned to the defendant despite contrary evidence and amount of probative evidence processed. Complex language did not affect memory but did affect jurors' ability to appropriately compensate differentially worthy plaintiffs. Jurors assigned compensatory awards commensurate with the plaintiffs' injuries only under low-load and less complex language conditions.

  11. Farmer Decision-Making for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubell, M.; Niles, M.; Salerno, J.

    2015-12-01

    This talk will provide an overview of several studies of how farmers make decisions about climate change adaptation and mitigation. A particular focus will be the "limiting factors hypothesis", which argues that farmers will respond to the climate variables that usually have the largest impact on their crop productivity. For example, the most limiting factor in California is usually water so how climate change affects water will be the largest drive of climate adaptation decisions. This basic idea is drawn from the broader theory of "psychological distance", which argue that human decisions are more attuned to ideas that are psychologically closer in space, time, or other factors. Empirical examples come from California, New Zealand, and Africa.

  12. Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.

    1985-09-01

    The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs

  13. Housing decision making methods for initiation development phase process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zainal, Rozlin; Kasim, Narimah; Sarpin, Norliana; Wee, Seow Ta; Shamsudin, Zarina

    2017-10-01

    Late delivery and sick housing project problems were attributed to poor decision making. These problems are the string of housing developer that prefers to create their own approach based on their experiences and expertise with the simplest approach by just applying the obtainable standards and rules in decision making. This paper seeks to identify the decision making methods for housing development at the initiation phase in Malaysia. The research involved Delphi method by using questionnaire survey which involved 50 numbers of developers as samples for the primary stage of collect data. However, only 34 developers contributed to the second stage of the information gathering process. At the last stage, only 12 developers were left for the final data collection process. Finding affirms that Malaysian developers prefer to make their investment decisions based on simple interpolation of historical data and using simple statistical or mathematical techniques in producing the required reports. It was suggested that they seemed to skip several important decision-making functions at the primary development stage. These shortcomings were mainly due to time and financial constraints and the lack of statistical or mathematical expertise among the professional and management groups in the developer organisations.

  14. Decision Making in Liver Transplant Selection Committees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volk, Michael L; Biggins, Scott W; Huang, Mary Ann; Argo, Curtis K; Fontana, Robert J; Anspach, Renee R

    2011-01-01

    Background In order to receive a liver transplant, patients must first be placed on the waiting list – a decision made in most transplant centers by a multidisciplinary committee. The function of these committees has never been studied. Objectives To describe decision making in liver transplant committees and identify opportunities for process improvement. Design Observational multi-center Setting We observed 63 meetings and interviewed 50 committee members at 4 liver transplant centers. Study Subjects Transplant committee members. Measurements Recorded transcripts and field notes were analyzed using standard qualitative sociological methods. Results While the structure of meetings varied by center, the process was uniform and involved reviewing possible reasons for patient exclusion using primarily inductive reasoning. Stated justifications for excluding patients were a) too well, b) non-hepatic comorbidities or advanced age, c) too sick in the setting of advanced liver disease, d) substance abuse, or e) other psychosocial barriers. Dominant themes identified included members’ angst over deciding who lives and dies, a high correlation between psychosocial barriers to transplant and patients’ socioeconomic status, and the influence of external forces on decision making. Consistently identified barriers to effective group decision making were: 1) unwritten center policies, and 2) confusion regarding advocacy versus stewardship roles. Limitations The use of qualitative methods provides broad understanding but limits specific inferences. These four centers may not be reflective of every transplant center nationwide. Conclusion The difficult decisions made by these committees are reasonably consistent and always well-intentioned, but might be improved by more explicit written policies and clarifying roles. This process may help inform resource allocation in other areas of medicine. Primary funding source The Greenwall Foundation. PMID:22007044

  15. Iowa pavement asset management decision-making framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Most local agencies in Iowa currently make their pavement treatment decisions based on their limited experience due primarily to : lack of a systematic decision-making framework and a decision-aid tool. The lack of objective condition assessment data...

  16. Group Dynamics and Decision Making: Backcountry Recreationists in Avalanche Terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bright, Leslie Shay

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe and determine the prevalence of decision-making characteristics of recreational backcountry groups when making a decision of where to travel and ride in avalanche terrain from the perspective of individuals. Decision-making characteristics encompassed communication, decision-making processes, leadership,…

  17. [Transparency in public health decision-making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Altés, Anna; Argimon, Josep M

    2016-11-01

    Improving the quality and transparency of governmental healthcare decision-making has an impact on the health of the population through policies, organisational management and clinical practice. Moreover, the comparison between healthcare centres and the transparent feedback of results to professionals and to the wider public contribute directly to improved results. The "Results Centre" of the Catalan healthcare system measures and disseminates the results achieved by the different healthcare centres in order to facilitate a shared decision-making process, thereby enhancing the quality of healthcare provided to the population of Catalonia (Spain). This is a pioneering initiative in Spain and is aligned with the most advanced countries in terms of policies of transparency and accountability. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  18. Negative Affect, Decision Making, and Attentional Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega, Ana Raquel; Ramírez, Encarnación; Colmenero, José María; García-Viedma, Ma Del Rosario

    2017-02-01

    This study focuses on whether risk avoidance in decision making depends on negative affect or it is specific to anxious individuals. The Balloon Analogue Risk Task was used to obtain an objective measure in a risk situation with anxious, depressive, and control individuals. The role of attentional networks was also studied using the Attentional Network Test-Interaction (ANT-I) task with neutral stimuli. A significant difference was observed between anxious and depressive individuals in assumed risk in decision making. We found no differences between anxious and normal individuals in the alert, orientation, and congruency effects obtained in the ANT-I task. The results showed that there was no significant relationship between the risk avoidance and the indexes of alertness, orienting, and control. Future research shall determine whether emotionally relevant stimulation leads to attentional control deficit or whether differences between anxious and no anxious individuals are due to the type of strategy followed in choice tasks.

  19. Ethical decision-making in forensic psychology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Swanepoel

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to develop a comprehensive process for identifying and addressing primarily ethical issues related to the psychology profession in South Africa. In fulfilling this purpose, research was conducted of relevant ethical and to a lesser extent, legal aspects pertaining to the psychology profession. In an attempt to prevent unprofessional conduct claims against psychologists from succeeding and to alert psychologists to the concurrent ethical problems that may lead to malpractice suits, this article offers material on some important issues – in the context of forensic psychology – such as ethical decision-making and principles, professional ethics, the regulation of psychology as a profession, the Ethical Code of Professional Conduct to which a psychologist should adhere, ethical aspects and issues pertaining to forensic psychology in general, some ethical issues pertaining to child forensic psychology, summary guidelines for ethical decision-making and some steps to follow to ensure sound ethical decisionmaking.

  20. Minors' rights in medical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickey, Kathryn

    2007-01-01

    In the past, minors were not considered legally capable of making medical decisions and were viewed as incompetent because of their age. The authority to consent or refuse treatment for a minor remained with a parent or guardian. This parental authority was derived from the constitutional right to privacy regarding family matters, common law rule, and a general presumption that parents or guardians will act in the best interest of their incompetent child. However, over the years, the courts have gradually recognized that children younger than 18 years who show maturity and competence deserve a voice in determining their course of medical treatment. This article will explore the rights and interests of minors, parents, and the state in medical decision making and will address implications for nursing administrators and leaders.

  1. Business intelligence making decisions through data analytics

    CERN Document Server

    Surma, Jerzy

    2014-01-01

    This book is about using business intelligence as a management information system for supporting managerial decision making. It concentrates primarily on practical business issues and demonstrates how to apply data warehousing and data analytics to support business decision making. This book progresses through a logical sequence, starting with data model infrastructure, then data preparation, followed by data analysis, integration, knowledge discovery, and finally the actual use of discovered knowledge. All examples are based on the most recent achievements in business intelligence. Finally this book outlines an overview of a methodology that takes into account the complexity of developing applications in an integrated business intelligence environment. This book is written for managers, business consultants, and undergraduate and postgraduates students in business administration.

  2. Cognitive reflection vs. calculation in decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Sinayev, Aleksandr; Peters, Ellen

    2015-01-01

    Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes t...

  3. Cognitive Reflection Versus Calculation in Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Aleksandr eSinayev; Ellen ePeters

    2015-01-01

    Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes t...

  4. Attitudes towards risk in financial decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Vieira, Pedro Nuno Rino Carreira

    2016-01-01

    Doutoramento em Gestão Risk and attitudes towards risk play a central role in several areas such as economics and psychology. Interestingly, in economics risk attitudes are addressed under the umbrella of the Utility Theory, while in psychology they are measured by psychometric scales. Risk attitudes in financial decision making are here studied under both approaches with the concern of understanding how they are related. So, I propose a conceptual model that explains risk attitudes, I ...

  5. Role of conflict in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bellman, H.S.

    1986-01-01

    In the siting process for a low-level waste disposal facility, there is a place for conflict, negotiation, arbitration, and public involvement. Contrary to popular belief, conflict is good. It signals pluralism and demonstrates a distribution of power. Conflict should not be eliminated because it is a dynamic method of decision-making. Conflict causes negotiation, which leads to compromise. Conflict is the product of the legitimacy of dissent

  6. Decision making about nuclear energy, ch. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, R.

    1978-01-01

    A survey is given of the various influences on the process of making decisions at the governmental level in the Netherlands on nuclear power, covering the last 20 years. The conflicting statements in memoranda, the role of the industry, the lack of public information and the coloured information generated by different ministries as an answer to extra-parliamentary opposition to nuclear power, are in turn put into focus

  7. Collaborative Platforms Aid Emergency Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Terra. Aqua. Cloudsat. Landsat. NASA runs and partners in many missions dedicated to monitoring the Earth, and the tools used in these missions continuously return data on everything from shifts in temperature to cloud formation to pollution levels over highways. The data are of great scientific value, but they also provide information that can play a critical role in decision making during times of crisis. Real-time developments in weather, wind, ocean currents, and numerous other conditions can have a significant impact on the way disasters, both natural and human-caused, unfold. "NASA has long recognized the need to make its data from real-time sources compatible and accessible for the purposes of decision making," says Michael Goodman, who was Disasters Program manager at NASA Headquarters from 2009-2012. "There are practical applications of NASA Earth science data, and we d like to accelerate the use of those applications." One of the main obstacles standing in the way of eminently practical data is the fact that the data from different missions are collected, formatted, and stored in different ways. Combining data sets in a way that makes them useful for decision makers has proven to be a difficult task. And while the need for a collaborative platform is widely recognized, very few have successfully made it work. Dave Jones, founder and CEO of StormCenter Communications Inc., which consults with decision makers to prepare for emergencies, says that "when I talk to public authorities, they say, If I had a nickel for every time someone told me they had a common operating platform, I d be rich. But one thing we ve seen over the years is that no one has been able to give end users the ability to ingest NASA data sets and merge them with their own."

  8. Anger and Moral Reasoning in Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Matúš Grežo; Ľubor Pilárik

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the research was to examine the impact of anger on moral reasoning and decision making. We were interested in whether anger leads to more punitive attributions and to greater willingness to help when one perceives immoral behavior. Participants (N=61) of the experimental design were randomly divided into two groups. The results show that anger may lead to more automatic information processing and also to an intuition based judgment. Angry participants chose harsher punishments and ...

  9. PSA, subjective probability and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarotti, C.A.

    1989-01-01

    PSA is the natural way to making decisions in face of uncertainty relative to potentially dangerous plants; subjective probability, subjective utility and Bayes statistics are the ideal tools for carrying out a PSA. This paper reports that in order to support this statement the various stages of the PSA procedure are examined in detail and step by step the superiority of Bayes techniques with respect to sampling theory machinery is proven

  10. Simplifying decision making: a practical framework

    OpenAIRE

    Chaudhry, Muhammad Shirjeel Riaz; Sidek, Mohmad Safhree

    2014-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis proposes a decision-making model based on PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) analysis, AHP (Analytical Hierarchical Process), and game theory. The case study used to demonstrate the concept is a 2013 Malaysian crisis wherein foreign intruders occupied a village in Sabah state. The Malaysian government, ultimately, launched a military operation to clear the area. The focus of our st...

  11. Decision making in the manufacturing environment using graph theory and fuzzy multiple attribute decision making methods

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, Ravipudi Venkata

    2007-01-01

    Manufacturing is the backbone of any industrialized nation. Recent worldwide advances in manufacturing technologies have brought about a metamorphism in the industry. Fast-changing technologies on the product front have created a need for an equally fast response from manufacturing industries. To meet these challenges, manufacturing industries have to select appropriate manufacturing strategies, product designs, manufacturing processes, work piece and tool materials, and machinery and equipment. The selection decisions are complex as decision making is more challenging today. Decision makers i

  12. The Role of Intuition and Creativity in Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Wierzbicki, A.P.

    1992-01-01

    The paper starts with a reflection on various perceptions of rationality in decision making; by concentrating on so-called deliberative decision making and examining its analogy to cognitive processes, a case for including intuitive decisions into the concept of rational decision making is made. The role of "Gestalt" images and basic concepts in perceiving reality is stressed. Intuitive decision making is operationally defined and various phases of intuitive decision processes are examined. S...

  13. The treatment of uncertainties in risk for regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baybutt, P.; Cox, D.C.; Denning, R.S.; Kurth, R.E.; Fraley, D.W.; Heaberlin, S.W.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes research conducted in an ongoing program at Battelle to develop and adapt decision analysis methods for regulatory decision making. A general approach to risk-based decision making is discussed. The nature of uncertainties in risk assessment is described and methods for their inclusion in decision making are proposed. The use of decision analysis methods in regulatory decision making and the consideration of uncertainties is illustrated in a realistic case study

  14. Making decisions with a continuous mind.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherbaum, S; Dshemuchadse, M; Kalis, A

    2008-12-01

    Neuroeconomics is a rapidly expanding field at the interfaces of the human sciences. The interdisciplinary nature of this field results in several challenges when attempts are made to solve puzzling questions in human decision making, such as why and how people discount future gains. We argue that an empirical approach based on dynamic systems theory (DST) could inspire and advance the neuroeconomic investigation of decision-making processes in three ways: by enriching the mental model, by extending the empirical tool set, and by facilitating interdisciplinary exchange. The present article addresses the challenges neuroeconomics faces by focusing on intertemporal choice. After a brief introduction of DST and related research, a DST-based conceptual model of decision making is developed and linked to underlying neural principles. On this basis, we outline the application of DST-informed empirical strategies to intertemporal choice. Finally, we discuss the general consequences of and possible objections to the proposed approach to research in intertemporal choice and the field of neuroeconomics.

  15. Dialogic Consensus In Clinical Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Paul; Lovat, Terry

    2016-12-01

    This paper is predicated on the understanding that clinical encounters between clinicians and patients should be seen primarily as inter-relations among persons and, as such, are necessarily moral encounters. It aims to relocate the discussion to be had in challenging medical decision-making situations, including, for example, as the end of life comes into view, onto a more robust moral philosophical footing than is currently commonplace. In our contemporary era, those making moral decisions must be cognizant of the existence of perspectives other than their own, and be attuned to the demands of inter-subjectivity. Applicable to clinical practice, we propose and justify a Habermasian approach as one useful means of achieving what can be described as dialogic consensus. The Habermasian approach builds around, first, his discourse theory of morality as universalizable to all and, second, communicative action as a cooperative search for truth. It is a concrete way to ground the discourse which must be held in complex medical decision-making situations, in its actual reality. Considerations about the theoretical underpinnings of the application of dialogic consensus to clinical practice, and potential difficulties, are explored.

  16. Scientific literacy for democratic decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yacoubian, Hagop A.

    2018-02-01

    Scientifically literate citizens must be able to engage in making decisions on science-based social issues. In this paper, I start by showing examples of science curricula and policy documents that capitalise the importance of engaging future citizens in decision-making processes whether at the personal or at the societal levels. I elucidate the ideological underpinnings behind a number of the statements within those documents that have defined the trajectory of scientific literacy and have shaped what ought to be considered as personal and societal benefits. I argue that science curricula and policy documents can truly endorse scientific literacy when they embed principles of democratic education at their core. The latter entails fostering learning experiences where some of the underlying assumptions and political ideologies are brought to the conscious level and future citizens encouraged to reflect upon them critically and explicitly. Such a proposal empowers the future citizens to engage in critical deliberation on science-based social issues without taking the underlying status quo for granted. I end up the paper by situating the preparation of scientifically literate citizens within a framework of democratic education, discuss conditions through which a curriculum for scientific literacy can serve democratic decision-making processes, and provide modest recommendations.

  17. The cerebellum and decision making under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackwood, Nigel; Ffytche, Dominic; Simmons, Andrew; Bentall, Richard; Murray, Robin; Howard, Robert

    2004-06-01

    This study aimed to identify the neural basis of probabilistic reasoning, a type of inductive inference that aids decision making under conditions of uncertainty. Eight normal subjects performed two separate two-alternative-choice tasks (the balls in a bottle and personality survey tasks) while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The experimental conditions within each task were chosen so that they differed only in their requirement to make a decision under conditions of uncertainty (probabilistic reasoning and frequency determination required) or under conditions of certainty (frequency determination required). The same visual stimuli and motor responses were used in the experimental conditions. We provide evidence that the neo-cerebellum, in conjunction with the premotor cortex, inferior parietal lobule and medial occipital cortex, mediates the probabilistic inferences that guide decision making under uncertainty. We hypothesise that the neo-cerebellum constructs internal working models of uncertain events in the external world, and that such probabilistic models subserve the predictive capacity central to induction. Copyright 2004 Elsevier B.V.

  18. Serotonin shapes risky decision making in monkeys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Arwen B; Kuhn, Cynthia M; Platt, Michael L

    2009-12-01

    Some people love taking risks, while others avoid gambles at all costs. The neural mechanisms underlying individual variation in preference for risky or certain outcomes, however, remain poorly understood. Although behavioral pathologies associated with compulsive gambling, addiction and other psychiatric disorders implicate deficient serotonin signaling in pathological decision making, there is little experimental evidence demonstrating a link between serotonin and risky decision making, in part due to the lack of a good animal model. We used dietary rapid tryptophan depletion (RTD) to acutely lower brain serotonin in three macaques performing a simple gambling task for fluid rewards. To confirm the efficacy of RTD experiments, we measured total plasma tryptophan using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with electrochemical detection. Reducing brain serotonin synthesis decreased preference for the safe option in a gambling task. Moreover, lowering brain serotonin function significantly decreased the premium required for monkeys to switch their preference to the risky option, suggesting that diminished serotonin signaling enhances the relative subjective value of the risky option. These results implicate serotonin in risk-sensitive decision making and, further, suggest pharmacological therapies for treating pathological risk preferences in disorders such as problem gambling and addiction.

  19. Framing effect debiasing in medical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almashat, Sammy; Ayotte, Brian; Edelstein, Barry; Margrett, Jennifer

    2008-04-01

    Numerous studies have demonstrated the robustness of the framing effect in a variety of contexts. The present study investigated the effects of a debiasing procedure designed to prevent the framing effect for young adults who made decisions based on hypothetical medical decision-making vignettes. The debiasing technique involved participants listing advantages and disadvantages of each treatment prior to making a choice. One hundred and two undergraduate students read a set of three medical treatment vignettes that presented information in terms of different outcome probabilities under either debiasing or control conditions. The framing effect was demonstrated by the control group in two of the three vignettes. The debiasing group successfully avoided the framing effect for both of these vignettes. These results further support previous findings of the framing effect as well as an effective debiasing technique. This study improved upon previous framing debiasing studies by including a control group and personal medical scenarios, as well as demonstrating debiasing in a framing condition in which the framing effect was demonstrated without a debiasing procedure. The findings suggest a relatively simple manipulation may circumvent the use of decision-making heuristics in patients.

  20. Dopaminergic Modulation of Risky Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Nicholas W.; Montgomery, Karienn S.; Beas, Blanca S.; Mitchell, Marci R.; LaSarge, Candi L.; Mendez, Ian A.; Bañuelos, Cristina; Vokes, Colin M.; Taylor, Aaron B.; Haberman, Rebecca P.; Bizon, Jennifer L.; Setlow, Barry

    2012-01-01

    Many psychiatric disorders are characterized by abnormal risky decision-making and dysregulated dopamine receptor expression. The current study was designed to determine how different dopamine receptor subtypes modulate risk-taking in young adult rats, using a “Risky Decision-making Task” that involves choices between small “safe” rewards and large “risky” rewards accompanied by adverse consequences. Rats showed considerable, stable individual differences in risk preference in the task, which were not related to multiple measures of reward motivation, anxiety, or pain sensitivity. Systemic activation of D2-like receptors robustly attenuated risk-taking, whereas drugs acting on D1-like receptors had no effect. Systemic amphetamine also reduced risk-taking, an effect which was attenuated by D2-like (but not D1-like) receptor blockade. Dopamine receptor mRNA expression was evaluated in a separate cohort of drug-naive rats characterized in the task. D1 mRNA expression in both nucleus accumbens shell and insular cortex was positively associated with risk-taking, while D2 mRNA expression in orbitofrontal and medial prefrontal cortex predicted risk preference in opposing nonlinear patterns. Additionally, lower levels of D2 mRNA in dorsal striatum were associated with greater risk-taking. These data strongly implicate dopamine signaling in prefrontal corticalstriatal circuitry in modulating decision-making processes involving integration of reward information with risks of adverse consequences. PMID:22131407