WorldWideScience

Sample records for project cost estimates

  1. Project schedule and cost estimate report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-03-01

    All cost tables represent obligation dollars, at both a constant FY 1987 level and an estimated escalation level, and are based on the FY 1989 DOE Congressional Budget submittal of December 1987. The cost tables display the total UMTRA Project estimated costs, which include both Federal and state funding. The Total Estimated Cost (TEC) for the UMTRA Project is approximately $992.5 million (in 1987 escalated dollars). Project schedules have been developed that provide for Project completion by September 1994, subject to Congressional approval extending DOE's authorization under Public Law 95-604. The report contains site-specific demographic data, conceptual design assumptions, preliminary cost estimates, and site schedules. A general project overview is also presented, which includes a discussion of the basis for the schedule and cost estimates, contingency assumptions, work breakdown structure, and potential project risks. The schedules and cost estimates will be revised as necessary to reflect appropriate decisions relating to relocation of certain tailings piles, or other special design considerations or circumstances (such as revised EPA groundwater standards), and changes in the Project mission. 27 figs', 97 tabs

  2. Project Cost Estimation for Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-26

    For Nevada Department of Transportation (NDOT), there are far too many projects that ultimately cost much more than initially planned. Because project nominations are linked to estimates of future funding and the analysis of system needs, the inaccur...

  3. COST ESTIMATING RELATIONSHIPS IN ONSHORE DRILLING PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo de Melo e Silva Accioly

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimating relationships (CERs are very important tools in the planning phases of an upstream project. CERs are, in general, multiple regression models developed to estimate the cost of a particular item or scope of a project. They are based in historical data that should pass through a normalization process before fitting a model. In the early phases they are the primary tool for cost estimating. In later phases they are usually used as an estimation validation tool and sometimes for benchmarking purposes. As in any other modeling methodology there are number of important steps to build a model. In this paper the process of building a CER to estimate drilling cost of onshore wells will be addressed.

  4. Probabilistic cost estimating of nuclear power plant construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finch, W.C.; Perry, L.W.; Postula, F.D.

    1978-01-01

    This paper shows how to identify and isolate cost accounts by developing probability trees down to component levels as justified by value and cost uncertainty. Examples are given of the procedure for assessing uncertainty in all areas contributing to cost: design, factory equipment pricing, and field labor and materials. The method of combining these individual uncertainties is presented so that the cost risk can be developed for components, systems and the total plant construction project. Formats which enable management to use the probabilistic cost estimate information for business planning and risk control are illustrated. Topics considered include code estimate performance, cost allocation, uncertainty encoding, probabilistic cost distributions, and interpretation. Effective cost control of nuclear power plant construction projects requires insight into areas of greatest cost uncertainty and a knowledge of the factors which can cause costs to vary from the single value estimates. It is concluded that probabilistic cost estimating can provide the necessary assessment of uncertainties both as to the cause and the consequences

  5. Project cost estimation techniques used by most emerging building ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Cost estimation, estimation methods, emerging contractors, tender. Dr Solly Matshonisa .... historical cost data (data from cost accounting records and/ ..... emerging contractors in tendering. Table 13: Use of project risk management versus responsibility: expected. Internal document analysis. Checklist analysis.

  6. Estimating design costs for first-of-a-kind projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banerjee, Bakul; Fermilab

    2006-01-01

    Modern scientific facilities are often outcomes of projects that are first-of-a-kind, that is, minimal historical data are available for project costs and schedules. However, at Fermilab, there was an opportunity to execute two similar projects consecutively. In this paper, a comparative study of the design costs for these two projects is presented using earned value methodology. This study provides some insights into how to estimate the cost of a replicated project

  7. Predicting Software Projects Cost Estimation Based on Mining Historical Data

    OpenAIRE

    Najadat, Hassan; Alsmadi, Izzat; Shboul, Yazan

    2012-01-01

    In this research, a hybrid cost estimation model is proposed to produce a realistic prediction model that takes into consideration software project, product, process, and environmental elements. A cost estimation dataset is built from a large number of open source projects. Those projects are divided into three domains: communication, finance, and game projects. Several data mining techniques are used to classify software projects in terms of their development complexity. Data mining techniqu...

  8. Methodology for cost estimate in projects for nuclear power plants decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salij, L.M.

    2008-01-01

    The conceptual approaches to cost estimating of nuclear power plants units decommissioning projects were determined. The international experience and national legislative and regulatory basis were analyzed. The possible decommissioning project cost classification was given. It was shown the role of project costs of nuclear power plant units decommissioning as the most important criterion for the main project decisions. The technical and economic estimation of deductions to common-branch fund of decommissioning projects financing was substantiated

  9. 78 FR 61227 - Public Assistance Cost Estimating Format for Large Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-03

    ... equipment. The base cost (construction costs) plus nonconstruction costs equal the total eligible cost... included the estimated base cost plus the estimated nonconstruction costs. Under the traditional method... total cost of completing the project. This ``forward- pricing'' methodology provides an estimate of the...

  10. Risk Consideration and Cost Estimation in Construction Projects Using Monte Carlo Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudius A. Peleskei

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Construction projects usually involve high investments. It is, therefore, a risky adventure for companies as actual costs of construction projects nearly always exceed the planed scenario. This is due to the various risks and the large uncertainty existing within this industry. Determination and quantification of risks and their impact on project costs within the construction industry is described to be one of the most difficult areas. This paper analyses how the cost of construction projects can be estimated using Monte Carlo Simulation. It investigates if the different cost elements in a construction project follow a specific probability distribution. The research examines the effect of correlation between different project costs on the result of the Monte Carlo Simulation. The paper finds out that Monte Carlo Simulation can be a helpful tool for risk managers and can be used for cost estimation of construction projects. The research has shown that cost distributions are positively skewed and cost elements seem to have some interdependent relationships.

  11. Cost estimation using ministerial regulation of public work no. 11/2013 in construction projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arumsari, Putri; Juliastuti; Khalifah Al'farisi, Muhammad

    2017-12-01

    One of the first tasks in starting a construction project is to estimate the total cost of building a project. In Indonesia there are several standards that are used to calculate the cost estimation of a project. One of the standards used in based on the Ministerial Regulation of Public Work No. 11/2013. However in a construction project, contractor often has their own cost estimation based on their own calculation. This research aimed to compare the construction project total cost using calculation based on the Ministerial Regulation of Public Work No. 11/2013 against the contractor’s calculation. Two projects were used as case study to compare the results. The projects were a 4 storey building located in Pantai Indah Kapuk area (West Jakarta) and a warehouse located in Sentul (West Java) which was built by 2 different contractors. The cost estimation from both contractors’ calculation were compared to the one based on the Ministerial Regulation of Public Work No. 11/2013. It is found that there were differences between the two calculation around 1.80 % - 3.03% in total cost, in which the cost estimation based on Ministerial Regulation was higher than the contractors’ calculations.

  12. A Project Management Approach to Using Simulation for Cost Estimation on Large, Complex Software Development Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizell, Carolyn; Malone, Linda

    2007-01-01

    It is very difficult for project managers to develop accurate cost and schedule estimates for large, complex software development projects. None of the approaches or tools available today can estimate the true cost of software with any high degree of accuracy early in a project. This paper provides an approach that utilizes a software development process simulation model that considers and conveys the level of uncertainty that exists when developing an initial estimate. A NASA project will be analyzed using simulation and data from the Software Engineering Laboratory to show the benefits of such an approach.

  13. Cost Estimation for Cross-organizational ERP Projects: Research Perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daneva, Maia; Bieman, J.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    There are many methods for estimating size, effort, schedule and other cost aspects of IS projects, but only one specifically developed for Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) [67] and none for simultaneous, interdependent ERP projects in a cross-organizational context. The objective of this paper is

  14. Early cost estimating for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Mahamid

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to develop early cost estimating models for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques, based on 131 sets of data collected in the West Bank in Palestine. As the cost estimates are required at early stages of a project, considerations were given to the fact that the input data for the required regression model could be easily extracted from sketches or scope definition of the project. 11 regression models are developed to estimate the total cost of road construction project in US dollar; 5 of them include bid quantities as input variables and 6 include road length and road width. The coefficient of determination r2 for the developed models is ranging from 0.92 to 0.98 which indicate that the predicted values from a forecast models fit with the real-life data. The values of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of the developed regression models are ranging from 13% to 31%, the results compare favorably with past researches which have shown that the estimate accuracy in the early stages of a project is between ±25% and ±50%.

  15. Methods for cost estimation in software project management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briciu, C. V.; Filip, I.; Indries, I. I.

    2016-02-01

    The speed in which the processes used in software development field have changed makes it very difficult the task of forecasting the overall costs for a software project. By many researchers, this task has been considered unachievable, but there is a group of scientist for which this task can be solved using the already known mathematical methods (e.g. multiple linear regressions) and the new techniques as genetic programming and neural networks. The paper presents a solution for building a model for the cost estimation models in the software project management using genetic algorithms starting from the PROMISE datasets related COCOMO 81 model. In the first part of the paper, a summary of the major achievements in the research area of finding a model for estimating the overall project costs is presented together with the description of the existing software development process models. In the last part, a basic proposal of a mathematical model of a genetic programming is proposed including here the description of the chosen fitness function and chromosome representation. The perspective of model described it linked with the current reality of the software development considering as basis the software product life cycle and the current challenges and innovations in the software development area. Based on the author's experiences and the analysis of the existing models and product lifecycle it was concluded that estimation models should be adapted with the new technologies and emerging systems and they depend largely by the chosen software development method.

  16. Why Don't They Just Give Us Money? Project Cost Estimating and Cost Reporting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comstock, Douglas A.; Van Wychen, Kristin; Zimmerman, Mary Beth

    2015-01-01

    Successful projects require an integrated approach to managing cost, schedule, and risk. This is especially true for complex, multi-year projects involving multiple organizations. To explore solutions and leverage valuable lessons learned, NASA's Virtual Project Management Challenge will kick off a three-part series examining some of the challenges faced by project and program managers when it comes to managing these important elements. In this first session of the series, we will look at cost management, with an emphasis on the critical roles of cost estimating and cost reporting. By taking a proactive approach to both of these activities, project managers can better control life cycle costs, maintain stakeholder confidence, and protect other current and future projects in the organization's portfolio. Speakers will be Doug Comstock, Director of NASA's Cost Analysis Division, Kristin Van Wychen, Senior Analyst in the GAO Acquisition and Sourcing Management Team, and Mary Beth Zimmerman, Branch Chief for NASA's Portfolio Analysis Branch, Strategic Investments Division. Moderator Ramien Pierre is from NASA's Academy for Program/Project and Engineering Leadership (APPEL).

  17. A case-based reasoning approach for estimating the costs of pump station projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed M. Marzouk

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The effective estimation of costs is crucial to the success of construction projects. Cost estimates are used to evaluate, approve and/or fund projects. Organizations use some form of classification system to identify the various types of estimates that may be prepared during the lifecycle of a project. This research presents a parametric-cost model for pump station projects. Fourteen factors have been identified as important to the influence of the cost of pump station projects. A data set that consists of forty-four pump station projects (fifteen water and twenty-nine waste water are collected to build a Case-Based Reasoning (CBR library and to test its performance. The results obtained from the CBR tool are processed and adopted to improve the accuracy of the results. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the development of the effectiveness of the tool.

  18. Solid Waste Operations Complex W-113: Project cost estimate. Preliminary design report. Volume IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    This document contains Volume IV of the Preliminary Design Report for the Solid Waste Operations Complex W-113 which is the Project Cost Estimate and construction schedule. The estimate was developed based upon Title 1 material take-offs, budgetary equipment quotes and Raytheon historical in-house data. The W-113 project cost estimate and project construction schedule were integrated together to provide a resource loaded project network

  19. Application of Boosting Regression Trees to Preliminary Cost Estimation in Building Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoonseok Shin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including cost estimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT is applied to cost estimations at the early stage of a construction project to examine the applicability of the boosting approach to a regression problem within the construction domain. To evaluate the performance of the BRT model, its performance was compared with that of a neural network (NN model, which has been proven to have a high performance in cost estimation domains. The BRT model has shown results similar to those of NN model using 234 actual cost datasets of a building construction project. In addition, the BRT model can provide additional information such as the importance plot and structure model, which can support estimators in comprehending the decision making process. Consequently, the boosting approach has potential applicability in preliminary cost estimations in a building construction project.

  20. Using fuzzy logic to improve the project time and cost estimation based on Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farhad Habibi

    2018-09-01

    Full Text Available Among different factors, correct scheduling is one of the vital elements for project management success. There are several ways to schedule projects including the Critical Path Method (CPM and Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT. Due to problems in estimating dura-tions of activities, these methods cannot accurately and completely model actual projects. The use of fuzzy theory is a basic way to improve scheduling and deal with such problems. Fuzzy theory approximates project scheduling models to reality by taking into account uncertainties in decision parameters and expert experience and mental models. This paper provides a step-by-step approach for accurate estimation of time and cost of projects using the Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT and expert views as fuzzy numbers. The proposed method included several steps. In the first step, the necessary information for project time and cost is estimated using the Critical Path Method (CPM and the Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT. The second step considers the duration and cost of the project activities as the trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, and then, the time and cost of the project are recalculated. The duration and cost of activities are estimated using the questionnaires as well as weighing the expert opinions, averaging and defuzzification based on a step-by-step algorithm. The calculating procedures for evaluating these methods are applied in a real project; and the obtained results are explained.

  1. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  2. Cost estimation tools in Germany and the UK. Comparison of cost estimates and actual costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfeifer, W.; Gordelier, S.; Drake, V.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: Accurate cost estimation for future decommissioning projects is a matter of considerable importance, especially for ensuring that sufficient funds will be available at the time of project implementation. This paper looks at the experience of cost estimation and real implementation outcomes from two countries, Germany and the UK, and draws lessons for the future. In Germany, cost estimates for the decommissioning of power reactors are updated every two years. For this purpose, the STILLKO program of the NIS Company is used. So far, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe has successfully decommissioned two prototype reactor facilities. Re-cultivation of the premises has already been completed. At the moment, the activated components of the multi-purpose research reactor (MZFR), the first pressurized water reactor in Germany that was moderated and cooled with heavy water, and of the prototype fast breeder reactor (KNK) are being dismantled remotely. Consequently, vast experience exists in particular for the updating of total costs on the basis of actually incurred expenses. The further the dismantling work proceeds, the more reliable is the total cost estimate. Here, the development of the estimated MZFR decommissioning costs shall be presented and compared with the estimates obtained for a German reference PWR-type power reactor of 1200 MW. In this way: - common features of the prototype reactor and power reactor shall be emphasized, - several parameters leading to an increase in the estimated costs shall be highlighted, - cost risks shall be outlined with the remote dismantling of the reactor pressure vessel serving as an example, - calculation parameters shall be presented, and - recommendations shall be made for a consistent estimation of costs. The United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) has a major programme for the environmental remediation of its former research and development sites at Dounreay, Windscale, Harwell and Winfrith together with the need to

  3. AN ENHANCED MODEL TO ESTIMATE EFFORT, PERFORMANCE AND COST OF THE SOFTWARE PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pauline

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The Authors have proposed a model that first captures the fundamentals of software metrics in the phase 1 consisting of three primitive primary software engineering metrics; they are person-months (PM, function-points (FP, and lines of code (LOC. The phase 2 consists of the proposed function point which is obtained by grouping the adjustment factors to simplify the process of adjustment and to ensure more consistency in the adjustments. In the proposed method fuzzy logic is used for quantifying the quality of requirements and is added as one of the adjustment factor, thus a fuzzy based approach for the Enhanced General System Characteristics to Estimate Effort of the Software Projects using productivity has been obtained. The phase 3 takes the calculated function point from our work and is given as input to the static single variable model (i.e. to the Intermediate COCOMO and COCOMO II for cost estimation. The Authors have tailored the cost factors in intermediate COCOMO and both; cost and scale factors are tailored in COCOMO II to suite to the individual development environment, which is very important for the accuracy of the cost estimates. The software performance indicators are project duration, schedule predictability, requirements completion ratio and post-release defect density, are also measured for the software projects in my work. A comparative study for effort, performance measurement and cost estimation of the software project is done between the existing model and the authors proposed work. Thus our work analyzes the interaction¬al process through which the estimation tasks were collectively accomplished.

  4. Using Intelligent Techniques in Construction Project Cost Estimation: 10-Year Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelrahman Osman Elfaki

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimation is the most important preliminary process in any construction project. Therefore, construction cost estimation has the lion’s share of the research effort in construction management. In this paper, we have analysed and studied proposals for construction cost estimation for the last 10 years. To implement this survey, we have proposed and applied a methodology that consists of two parts. The first part concerns data collection, for which we have chosen special journals as sources for the surveyed proposals. The second part concerns the analysis of the proposals. To analyse each proposal, the following four questions have been set. Which intelligent technique is used? How have data been collected? How are the results validated? And which construction cost estimation factors have been used? From the results of this survey, two main contributions have been produced. The first contribution is the defining of the research gap in this area, which has not been fully covered by previous proposals of construction cost estimation. The second contribution of this survey is the proposal and highlighting of future directions for forthcoming proposals, aimed ultimately at finding the optimal construction cost estimation. Moreover, we consider the second part of our methodology as one of our contributions in this paper. This methodology has been proposed as a standard benchmark for construction cost estimation proposals.

  5. Cost Estimating Handbook for Environmental Restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    Environmental restoration (ER) projects have presented the DOE and cost estimators with a number of properties that are not comparable to the normal estimating climate within DOE. These properties include: An entirely new set of specialized expressions and terminology. A higher than normal exposure to cost and schedule risk, as compared to most other DOE projects, due to changing regulations, public involvement, resource shortages, and scope of work. A higher than normal percentage of indirect costs to the total estimated cost due primarily to record keeping, special training, liability, and indemnification. More than one estimate for a project, particularly in the assessment phase, in order to provide input into the evaluation of alternatives for the cleanup action. While some aspects of existing guidance for cost estimators will be applicable to environmental restoration projects, some components of the present guidelines will have to be modified to reflect the unique elements of these projects. The purpose of this Handbook is to assist cost estimators in the preparation of environmental restoration estimates for Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) projects undertaken by DOE. The DOE has, in recent years, seen a significant increase in the number, size, and frequency of environmental restoration projects that must be costed by the various DOE offices. The coming years will show the EM program to be the largest non-weapons program undertaken by DOE. These projects create new and unique estimating requirements since historical cost and estimating precedents are meager at best. It is anticipated that this Handbook will enhance the quality of cost data within DOE in several ways by providing: The basis for accurate, consistent, and traceable baselines. Sound methodologies, guidelines, and estimating formats. Sources of cost data/databases and estimating tools and techniques available at DOE cost professionals

  6. Cost estimating for large nuclear projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duggal, A.; Hunt, M.

    2004-01-01

    In today's market, the generation of electricity is a very competitive business, which is constantly under the watchful eye of the media and public. Nuclear power faces a lot of competition from other sources such as hydro, coal and gas. Controlling costs, monitoring costs, feedback, industry knowledge and up to date cost estimating tools are essential for a nuclear company to compete on a long term basis. This paper reviews the terminology and estimating principles used for the construction of new nuclear plants, lifetime operating costs, and the costs associated with refurbishment work. (author)

  7. Hydrogen Station Cost Estimates: Comparing Hydrogen Station Cost Calculator Results with other Recent Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This report compares hydrogen station cost estimates conveyed by expert stakeholders through the Hydrogen Station Cost Calculation (HSCC) to a select number of other cost estimates. These other cost estimates include projections based upon cost models and costs associated with recently funded stations.

  8. The great environmental restoration cost estimating shootout: A blind test of three DOE cost estimating groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemen, Paul

    1992-01-01

    The cost of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Restoration (ER) Program has increased steadily over the last three years and, in the process, has drawn increasing scrutiny from Congress, the public, and government agencies such as the Office of Management and Budget and the General Accounting Office. Programmatic costs have been reviewed by many groups from within the DOE as well as from outside agencies. While cost may appear to be a universally applicable barometer of project conditions, it is actually a single dimensional manifestation of a complex set of conditions. As such, variations in cost estimates can be caused by a variety of underlying factors such as changes in scope, schedule, performing organization, economic conditions, or regulatory environment. This paper will examine the subject of cost estimates by evaluating three different cost estimates prepared for a single project including two estimates prepared by project proponents and another estimate prepared by a review team. The paper identifies the reasons for cost growth as measured by the different estimates and evaluates the ability of review estimates to measure the validity of costs. The comparative technique used to test the three cost estimates will identify the reasons for changes in the estimated cost, over time, and evaluate the ability of an independent review to correctly identify the reasons for cost growth and evaluate the reasonableness of the cost proposed by the project proponents. Recommendations are made for improved cost estimates and improved cost estimate reviews. Conclusions are reached regarding the differences in estimate results that can be attributed to differences in estimating techniques, the implications of these differences for decision makers, and circumstances that are unique to environmental cost estimating. (author)

  9. Guideline to Estimate Decommissioning Costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Taesik; Kim, Younggook; Oh, Jaeyoung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The primary objective of this work is to provide guidelines to estimate the decommissioning cost as well as the stakeholders with plausible information to understand the decommissioning activities in a reasonable manner, which eventually contribute to acquiring the public acceptance for the nuclear power industry. Although several cases of the decommissioning cost estimate have been made for a few commercial nuclear power plants, the different technical, site-specific and economic assumptions used make it difficult to interpret those cost estimates and compare them with that of a relevant plant. Trustworthy cost estimates are crucial to plan a safe and economic decommissioning project. The typical approach is to break down the decommissioning project into a series of discrete and measurable work activities. Although plant specific differences derived from the economic and technical assumptions make a licensee difficult to estimate reliable decommissioning costs, estimating decommissioning costs is the most crucial processes since it encompasses all the spectrum of activities from the planning to the final evaluation on whether a decommissioning project has successfully been preceded from the perspective of safety and economic points. Hence, it is clear that tenacious efforts should be needed to successfully perform the decommissioning project.

  10. Underestimation of Project Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Harry W.

    2015-01-01

    Large projects almost always exceed their budgets. Estimating cost is difficult and estimated costs are usually too low. Three different reasons are suggested: bad luck, overoptimism, and deliberate underestimation. Project management can usually point to project difficulty and complexity, technical uncertainty, stakeholder conflicts, scope changes, unforeseen events, and other not really unpredictable bad luck. Project planning is usually over-optimistic, so the likelihood and impact of bad luck is systematically underestimated. Project plans reflect optimism and hope for success in a supposedly unique new effort rather than rational expectations based on historical data. Past project problems are claimed to be irrelevant because "This time it's different." Some bad luck is inevitable and reasonable optimism is understandable, but deliberate deception must be condemned. In a competitive environment, project planners and advocates often deliberately underestimate costs to help gain project approval and funding. Project benefits, cost savings, and probability of success are exaggerated and key risks ignored. Project advocates have incentives to distort information and conceal difficulties from project approvers. One naively suggested cure is more openness, honesty, and group adherence to shared overall goals. A more realistic alternative is threatening overrun projects with cancellation. Neither approach seems to solve the problem. A better method to avoid the delusions of over-optimism and the deceptions of biased advocacy is to base the project cost estimate on the actual costs of a large group of similar projects. Over optimism and deception can continue beyond the planning phase and into project execution. Hard milestones based on verified tests and demonstrations can provide a reality check.

  11. Accounting for the inaccuracies in demand forecasts and construction cost estimations in transport project evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2014-01-01

    For decades researchers have claimedthat particularly demand forecasts and construction cost estimations are assigned with/affected by a large degree of uncertainty. Massively, articles,research documents and reports agree that there exists a tendencytowards underestimating the costs...... in demand and cost estimations and hence the evaluation of transport infrastructure projects. Currently, research within this area is scarce and scattered with no commonagreement on how to embed and operationalise the huge amount of empiricaldata that exist within the frame of Optimism Bias. Therefore...... convertingdeterministic benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) into stochasticinterval results. A new data collection (2009–2013) forms the empirical basis for any risk simulation embeddedwithin the so-calledUP database (UNITE project database),revealing the inaccuracy of both construction costs and demandforecasts. Accordingly...

  12. Decommissioning Cost Estimating -The ''Price'' Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manning, R.; Gilmour, J.

    2002-01-01

    Over the past 9 years UKAEA has developed a formalized approach to decommissioning cost estimating. The estimating methodology and computer-based application are known collectively as the PRICE system. At the heart of the system is a database (the knowledge base) which holds resource demand data on a comprehensive range of decommissioning activities. This data is used in conjunction with project specific information (the quantities of specific components) to produce decommissioning cost estimates. PRICE is a dynamic cost-estimating tool, which can satisfy both strategic planning and project management needs. With a relatively limited analysis a basic PRICE estimate can be produced and used for the purposes of strategic planning. This same estimate can be enhanced and improved, primarily by the improvement of detail, to support sanction expenditure proposals, and also as a tender assessment and project management tool. The paper will: describe the principles of the PRICE estimating system; report on the experiences of applying the system to a wide range of projects from contaminated car parks to nuclear reactors; provide information on the performance of the system in relation to historic estimates, tender bids, and outturn costs

  13. Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren L.

    2002-01-01

    This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth $90 billion (U.S.), it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost...... honest numbers should not trust the cost estimates and cost-benefit analyses produced by project promoters and their analysts. Independent estimates and analyses are needed as are institutional checks and balances to curb deception.......This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth $90 billion (U.S.), it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost...... estimates used to decide whether important infrastructure should be built are highly and systematically misleading. The result is continuous cost escalation of billions of dollars. The sample used in the study is the largest of its kind, allowing for the first time statistically valid conclusions regarding...

  14. Cost Underestimation in Public Works Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren L.

    This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth $90 billion (U.S.), it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost...... honest numbers should not trust the cost estimates and cost-benefit analyses produced by project promoters and their analysts. Independent estimates and analyses are needed as are institutional checks and balances to curb deception.......This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth $90 billion (U.S.), it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost...... estimates used to decide whether important infrastructure should be built are highly and systematically misleading. The result is continuous cost escalation of billions of dollars. The sample used in the study is the largest of its kind, allowing for the first time statistically valid conclusions regarding...

  15. Cost Estimating for Decommissioning of a Plutonium Facility--Lessons Learned From The Rocky Flats Building 771 Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevens, J. L.; Titus, R.; Sanford, P. C.

    2002-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Closure Site is implementing an aggressive approach in an attempt to complete Site closure by 2006. The replanning effort to meet this goal required that the life-cycle decommissioning effort for the Site and for the major individual facilities be reexamined in detail. As part of the overall effort, the cost estimate for the Building 771 decommissioning project was revised to incorporate both actual cost data from a recently-completed similar project and detailed planning for all activities. This paper provides a brief overview of the replanning process and the original estimate, and then discusses the modifications to that estimate to reflect new data, methods, and planning rigor. It provides the new work breakdown structure and discusses the reasons for the final arrangement chosen. It follows with the process used to assign scope, cost, and schedule elements within the new structure, and development of the new code of accounts. Finally, it describes the project control methodology used to track the project, and provides lessons learned on cost tracking in the decommissioning environment

  16. Outer planet probe cost estimates: First impressions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niehoff, J.

    1974-01-01

    An examination was made of early estimates of outer planetary atmospheric probe cost by comparing the estimates with past planetary projects. Of particular interest is identification of project elements which are likely cost drivers for future probe missions. Data are divided into two parts: first, the description of a cost model developed by SAI for the Planetary Programs Office of NASA, and second, use of this model and its data base to evaluate estimates of probe costs. Several observations are offered in conclusion regarding the credibility of current estimates and specific areas of the outer planet probe concept most vulnerable to cost escalation.

  17. A bottom-up approach to estimating cost elements of REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merger Eduard

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several previous global REDD+ cost studies have been conducted, demonstrating that payments for maintaining forest carbon stocks have significant potential to be a cost-effective mechanism for climate change mitigation. These studies have mostly followed highly aggregated top-down approaches without estimating the full range of REDD+ costs elements, thus underestimating the actual costs of REDD+. Based on three REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania, representing an area of 327,825 ha, this study explicitly adopts a bottom-up approach to data assessment. By estimating opportunity, implementation, transaction and institutional costs of REDD+ we develop a practical and replicable methodological framework to consistently assess REDD+ cost elements. Results Based on historical land use change patterns, current region-specific economic conditions and carbon stocks, project-specific opportunity costs ranged between US$ -7.8 and 28.8 tCOxxxx for deforestation and forest degradation drivers such as agriculture, fuel wood production, unsustainable timber extraction and pasture expansion. The mean opportunity costs for the three projects ranged between US$ 10.1 – 12.5 tCO2. Implementation costs comprised between 89% and 95% of total project costs (excluding opportunity costs ranging between US$ 4.5 - 12.2 tCO2 for a period of 30 years. Transaction costs for measurement, reporting, verification (MRV, and other carbon market related compliance costs comprised a minor share, between US$ 0.21 - 1.46 tCO2. Similarly, the institutional costs comprised around 1% of total REDD+ costs in a range of US$ 0.06 – 0.11 tCO2. Conclusions The use of bottom-up approaches to estimate REDD+ economics by considering regional variations in economic conditions and carbon stocks has been shown to be an appropriate approach to provide policy and decision-makers robust economic information on REDD+. The assessment of opportunity costs is a crucial first step to

  18. A bottom-up approach to estimating cost elements of REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Several previous global REDD+ cost studies have been conducted, demonstrating that payments for maintaining forest carbon stocks have significant potential to be a cost-effective mechanism for climate change mitigation. These studies have mostly followed highly aggregated top-down approaches without estimating the full range of REDD+ costs elements, thus underestimating the actual costs of REDD+. Based on three REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania, representing an area of 327,825 ha, this study explicitly adopts a bottom-up approach to data assessment. By estimating opportunity, implementation, transaction and institutional costs of REDD+ we develop a practical and replicable methodological framework to consistently assess REDD+ cost elements. Results Based on historical land use change patterns, current region-specific economic conditions and carbon stocks, project-specific opportunity costs ranged between US$ -7.8 and 28.8 tCOxxxx for deforestation and forest degradation drivers such as agriculture, fuel wood production, unsustainable timber extraction and pasture expansion. The mean opportunity costs for the three projects ranged between US$ 10.1 – 12.5 tCO2. Implementation costs comprised between 89% and 95% of total project costs (excluding opportunity costs) ranging between US$ 4.5 - 12.2 tCO2 for a period of 30 years. Transaction costs for measurement, reporting, verification (MRV), and other carbon market related compliance costs comprised a minor share, between US$ 0.21 - 1.46 tCO2. Similarly, the institutional costs comprised around 1% of total REDD+ costs in a range of US$ 0.06 – 0.11 tCO2. Conclusions The use of bottom-up approaches to estimate REDD+ economics by considering regional variations in economic conditions and carbon stocks has been shown to be an appropriate approach to provide policy and decision-makers robust economic information on REDD+. The assessment of opportunity costs is a crucial first step to provide information on the

  19. A Framework of Combining Case-Based Reasoning with a Work Breakdown Structure for Estimating the Cost of Online Course Production Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Wu

    2014-01-01

    Currently, a work breakdown structure (WBS) approach is used as the most common cost estimation approach for online course production projects. To improve the practice of cost estimation, this paper proposes a novel framework to estimate the cost for online course production projects using a case-based reasoning (CBR) technique and a WBS. A…

  20. Cost Estimation and Control for Flight Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, Walter E.; Vanhook, Michael E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Good program management practices, cost analysis, cost estimation, and cost control for aerospace flight systems are interrelated and depend upon each other. The best cost control process cannot overcome poor design or poor systems trades that lead to the wrong approach. The project needs robust Technical, Schedule, Cost, Risk, and Cost Risk practices before it can incorporate adequate Cost Control. Cost analysis both precedes and follows cost estimation -- the two are closely coupled with each other and with Risk analysis. Parametric cost estimating relationships and computerized models are most often used. NASA has learned some valuable lessons in controlling cost problems, and recommends use of a summary Project Manager's checklist as shown here.

  1. Understanding the costs and schedule of hydroelectric projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merrow, E.W.; Schroeder, B.R.

    1991-01-01

    This paper is based on a study conducted for the World Bank which evaluated the feasibility of developing an empirically based ex ante project analysis system for hydroelectric projects. The system would be used to assess: the reasonableness of engineering-based cost and schedule estimates used for project appraisal and preliminary estimates used to select projects for appraisal; and the potential for cost growth and schedule slip. The system would help identify projects early in the project appraisal process that harbor significantly higher than normal risks of overrunning cost and schedule estimates

  2. Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, Serge; Descures, Sylvain; Du Pasquier, Louis; Francois, Patrice; Buonarotti, Stefano; Mariotti, Giovanni; Tarakonov, Jurij; Daniska, Vladimir; Bergh, Niklas; Carroll, Simon; AaSTRoeM, Annika; Cato, Anna; De La Gardie, Fredrik; Haenggi, Hannes; Rodriguez, Jose; Laird, Alastair; Ridpath, Andy; La Guardia, Thomas; O'Sullivan, Patrick; ); Weber, Inge; )

    2017-01-01

    The cost estimation process of decommissioning nuclear facilities has continued to evolve in recent years, with a general trend towards demonstrating greater levels of detail in the estimate and more explicit consideration of uncertainties, the latter of which may have an impact on decommissioning project costs. The 2012 report on the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC) of Nuclear Installations, a joint recommendation by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the European Commission, proposes a standardised structure of cost items for decommissioning projects that can be used either directly for the production of cost estimates or for mapping of cost items for benchmarking purposes. The ISDC, however, provides only limited guidance on the treatment of uncertainty when preparing cost estimates. Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities, prepared jointly by the NEA and IAEA, is intended to complement the ISDC, assisting cost estimators and reviewers in systematically addressing uncertainties in decommissioning cost estimates. Based on experiences gained in participating countries and projects, the report describes how uncertainty and risks can be analysed and incorporated in decommissioning cost estimates, while presenting the outcomes in a transparent manner

  3. Fast Conceptual Cost Estimating of Aerospace Projects Using Historical Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butts, Glenn

    2007-01-01

    Accurate estimates can be created in less than a minute by applying powerful techniques and algorithms to create an Excel-based parametric cost model. In five easy steps you will learn how to normalize your company 's historical cost data to the new project parameters. This paper provides a complete, easy-to-understand, step by step how-to guide. Such a guide does not seem to currently exist. Over 2,000 hours of research, data collection, and trial and error, and thousands of lines of Excel Visual Basic Application (VBA) code were invested in developing these methods. While VBA is not required to use this information, it increases the power and aesthetics of the model. Implementing all of the steps described, while not required, will increase the accuracy of the results.

  4. Cost diviation in road construction projects: The case of Palestine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Mahamid

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the statistical relationship between actual and estimated cost of road construction projects using data from road construction projects awarded in the West Bank in Palestine over the years 2004–2008. The study is based on a sample of 169 road construction projects. Based on this data, regression models are developed. The findings reveal that 100% of projects suffer from cost diverge, it is found that 76% of projects have cost under estimation while 24% have cost over estimation. The discrepancy between estimated and actual cost has an average of 14.6%, ranging from -39% to 98%. The relation between the project size (length and width and the cost diverge is discussed.

  5. Approaches in estimation of external cost for fuel cycles in the ExternE project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afanas'ev, A.A.; Maksimenko, B.N.

    1998-01-01

    The purposes, content and main results of studies realized within the frameworks of the International Project ExternE which is the first comprehensive attempt to develop general approach to estimation of external cost for different fuel cycles based on utilization of nuclear and fossil fuels, as well as on renewable power sources are discussed. The external cost of a fuel cycle is treated as social and environmental expenditures which are not taken into account by energy producers and consumers, i.e. these are expenditures not included into commercial cost nowadays. The conclusion on applicability of the approach suggested for estimation of population health hazards and environmental impacts connected with electric power generation growth (expressed in money or some other form) is made

  6. An Analytical Cost Estimation Procedure

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jayachandran, Toke

    1999-01-01

    Analytical procedures that can be used to do a sensitivity analysis of a cost estimate, and to perform tradeoffs to identify input values that can reduce the total cost of a project, are described in the report...

  7. Contractor-style tunnel cost estimating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scapuzzi, D.

    1990-06-01

    Keeping pace with recent advances in construction technology is a challenge for the cost estimating engineer. Using an estimating style that simulates the actual construction process and is similar in style to the contractor's estimate will give a realistic view of underground construction costs. For a contractor-style estimate, a mining method is chosen; labor crews, plant and equipment are selected, and advance rates are calculated for the various phases of work which are used to determine the length of time necessary to complete each phase of work. The durations are multiplied by the cost or labor and equipment per unit of time and, along with the costs for materials and supplies, combine to complete the estimate. Variations in advance rates, ground support, labor crew size, or other areas are more easily analyzed for their overall effect on the cost and schedule of a project. 14 figs

  8. Social cost impact assessment of pipeline infrastructure projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthews, John C., E-mail: matthewsj@battelle.org [Battelle, 7231 Palmetto Dr, Baton Rouge, LA 70808 (United States); Allouche, Erez N., E-mail: allouche@latech.edu [Louisiana Tech University (United States); Sterling, Raymond L., E-mail: sterling@latech.edu [Louisiana Tech University (United States)

    2015-01-15

    A key advantage of trenchless construction methods compared with traditional open-cut methods is their ability to install or rehabilitate underground utility systems with limited disruption to the surrounding built and natural environments. The equivalent monetary values of these disruptions are commonly called social costs. Social costs are often ignored by engineers or project managers during project planning and design phases, partially because they cannot be calculated using standard estimating methods. In recent years some approaches for estimating social costs were presented. Nevertheless, the cost data needed for validation of these estimating methods is lacking. Development of such social cost databases can be accomplished by compiling relevant information reported in various case histories. This paper identifies eight most important social cost categories, presents mathematical methods for calculating them, and summarizes the social cost impacts for two pipeline construction projects. The case histories are analyzed in order to identify trends for the various social cost categories. The effectiveness of the methods used to estimate these values is also discussed. These findings are valuable for pipeline infrastructure engineers making renewal technology selection decisions by providing a more accurate process for the assessment of social costs and impacts. - Highlights: • Identified the eight most important social cost factors for pipeline construction • Presented mathematical methods for calculating those social cost factors • Summarized social cost impacts for two pipeline construction projects • Analyzed those projects to identify trends for the social cost factors.

  9. Social cost impact assessment of pipeline infrastructure projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthews, John C.; Allouche, Erez N.; Sterling, Raymond L.

    2015-01-01

    A key advantage of trenchless construction methods compared with traditional open-cut methods is their ability to install or rehabilitate underground utility systems with limited disruption to the surrounding built and natural environments. The equivalent monetary values of these disruptions are commonly called social costs. Social costs are often ignored by engineers or project managers during project planning and design phases, partially because they cannot be calculated using standard estimating methods. In recent years some approaches for estimating social costs were presented. Nevertheless, the cost data needed for validation of these estimating methods is lacking. Development of such social cost databases can be accomplished by compiling relevant information reported in various case histories. This paper identifies eight most important social cost categories, presents mathematical methods for calculating them, and summarizes the social cost impacts for two pipeline construction projects. The case histories are analyzed in order to identify trends for the various social cost categories. The effectiveness of the methods used to estimate these values is also discussed. These findings are valuable for pipeline infrastructure engineers making renewal technology selection decisions by providing a more accurate process for the assessment of social costs and impacts. - Highlights: • Identified the eight most important social cost factors for pipeline construction • Presented mathematical methods for calculating those social cost factors • Summarized social cost impacts for two pipeline construction projects • Analyzed those projects to identify trends for the social cost factors

  10. Estimating the cost of disposal for Canada's nuclear fuel waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ates, Y.

    1996-07-01

    Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd (AECL) prepared an Environmental Impact Statement and nine supporting Primary Reference Documents on the concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste. This report summarizes the basis of the cost estimate which is provided in the primary reference document on engineering for a disposal facility. The scope of the cost estimate is explained by describing the key features of the disposal facility design, by noting the major assumptions made in preparing the estimates, and by listing the included and excluded cost components. An activity-based project planning and control method is explained whereby the project schedule, costs, and personnel requirements are interlinked; forming an integrated perspective on the total project life cycle. The summary and distribution of costs in each project stage by major facility or activity are presented. The results of studies which reviewed the overall cost estimate are also described. These studies indicate that, within the scope, the estimate is reasonable and compares well with similar international studies. (author)

  11. Increased accuracy of cost-estimation using product configuration systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jeppe Bredahl; Hvam, Lars; Mortensen, Niels Henrik

    This article describes an approach for utilizing Product Configuration Systems (PCS) for quantifying project costs in project-based companies. It presents a case study demonstrating a method of quantifying costs in a way that makes it possible to configure cost- and time estimates. Piecework costs......, material costs and sub-supplier costs are used as principle cost elements and linked to structural and process elements to facilitate configuration. The cost data are used by the PCS to generate fast and accurate cost-estimates, quotations, time estimates and cost summaries. The described cost...... quantification principles have been used in a Scandinavian SME (Small and Medium-sized Enterprise) since the 90’s, but have since 2011 been adopted to be used in a configuration system. A longitudinal case study was conducted to compare cost and time-estimation accuracy before and after implementation. We...

  12. Cost Estimates and Investment Decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emhjellen, Kjetil; Emhjellen Magne; Osmundsen, Petter

    2001-08-01

    When evaluating new investment projects, oil companies traditionally use the discounted cashflow method. This method requires expected cashflows in the numerator and a risk adjusted required rate of return in the denominator in order to calculate net present value. The capital expenditure (CAPEX) of a project is one of the major cashflows used to calculate net present value. Usually the CAPEX is given by a single cost figure, with some indication of its probability distribution. In the oil industry and many other industries, it is common practice to report a CAPEX that is the estimated 50/50 (median) CAPEX instead of the estimated expected (expected value) CAPEX. In this article we demonstrate how the practice of using a 50/50 (median) CAPEX, when the cost distributions are asymmetric, causes project valuation errors and therefore may lead to wrong investment decisions with acceptance of projects that have negative net present values. (author)

  13. Taking the Evolutionary Road to Developing an In-House Cost Estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacintho, David; Esker, Lind; Herman, Frank; Lavaque, Rodolfo; Regardie, Myma

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the process and some of the problems and challenges of developing an In-House Cost Estimate (IHCE). Using as an example the Space Network Ground Segment Sustainment (SGSS) project, the presentation reviews the phases for developing a Cost estimate within the project to estimate government and contractor project costs to support a budget request.

  14. Cost estimation and management over the life cycle of metallurgical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigates whether all expected costs over the life cycle of metallurgical research projects are included in initial, normal and fi nal cost estimates, and whether these costs are managed throughout a project's life cycle since there is not enough emphasis on the accurate estimation of costs and their management ...

  15. Cost benchmarking of railway projects in Europe – dealing with uncertainties in cost estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trabo, Inara

    Past experiences in the construction of high-speed railway projects demontrate either positive or negative financial outcomes of the actual project’s budget. Usually some uncertainty value is included into initial budget calculations. Uncertainty is related to the increase of material prices...... per main cost drivers were compared and analyzed. There were observed nine railway projects, comparable to the Copenhagen-Ringsted project. The results of this comparison provided a certain overview on the cost range in different budget disciplines. The Copenhagen-Ringsted project is positioned right...

  16. Estimating remediation costs for the Montclair radium superfund sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, M.J.

    1995-01-01

    The Montclair/West Orange and Glen Ridge Superfund Sites, located in Essex County, NJ, are contaminated to varying degrees with radioactive materials. The waste originated from radium processing facilities prevalent in the area during the early 1900s. The design for remediation of these sites is managed by Bechtel National, Inc. on behalf of the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Kansas City District, which administers the project through an interagency agreement with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Design efforts for the project began in 1990. A portion of the scope, which is the topic of this article, was preparing the remediation costs estimates. These estimates were to be prepared from the detailed design packages; the Corps of Engineers required that the estimates were prepared using the Micro Computer-Aided Cost Estimating System (MCACES). This article discusses the design methods used, provides an overview of MCACES, and discusses the structure and preparation of the cost estimate and its uses. However, the main focus of the article is the methods used to generate the required project-specific cost estimate format for this project. 6 figs

  17. Cost estimates for nuclear power in the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, Grant; Heptonstall, Phil; Gross, Robert; Handley, David

    2013-01-01

    Current UK Government support for nuclear power has in part been informed by cost estimates that suggest that electricity from new nuclear power stations will be competitive with alternative low carbon generation options. The evidence and analysis presented in this paper suggests that the capital cost estimates for nuclear power that are being used to inform these projections rely on costs escalating over the pre-construction and construction phase of the new build programme at a level significantly below those that have been experienced by past US and European programmes. This paper applies observed construction time and cost escalation rates to the published estimates of capital costs for new nuclear plant in the UK and calculates the potential impact on levelised cost per unit of electricity produced. The results suggest that levelised cost may turn out to be significantly higher than expected which in turn has important implications for policy, both in general terms of the potential costs to consumers and more specifically for negotiations around the level of policy support and contractual arrangements offered to individual projects through the proposed contract for difference strike price. -- Highlights: •Nuclear power projects costs can rise substantially during the construction period. •Pre-construction and construction time can be much longer than anticipated. •Adjusting estimates for observed experience increases levelised costs significantly. •Higher costs suggest that more policy support than envisaged may be required

  18. IDC reengineering Phase 2 & 3 US industry standard cost estimate summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, James M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Huelskamp, Robert M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, using a commercial software cost estimation tool calibrated to US industry performance parameters. This is not a cost estimate for Sandia to perform the project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

  19. Assessing the costs attributed to project delay during project pre-construction stages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    This project for the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) developed a simple but sound : methodology for estimating the cost of delaying most types of highway projects. Researchers considered the : cost of delays during the pre-construction pha...

  20. Social opportunity cost of capital: empirical estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Townsend, S.

    1978-02-01

    This report develops estimates of the social-opportunity cost of public capital. The private and social costs of capital are found to diverge primarily because of the effects of corporate and personal income taxes. Following Harberger, the social-opportunity cost of capital is approximated by a weighted average of the returns to different classes of savers and investors where the weights are the flows of savings or investments in each class multiplied by the relevant elasticity. Estimates of these parameters are obtained and the social-opportunity cost of capital is determined to be in the range of 6.2 to 10.8%, depending upon the parameter values used. Uncertainty is found to affect the social-opportunity cost of capital in two ways. First, some allowance must be made for the chance of failure or at least of not realizing claims of a project's proponents. Second, a particular government project will change the expected variability of the returns to the government's entire portfolio of projects. In the absence of specific information about each project, the use of the economy-wide average default and risk adjustments is suggested. These are included in the empirical estimates reported. International capital markets make available private capital, the price of which is not distorted by the U.S. tax system. The inclusion of foreign sources slightly reduces the social-opportunity cost of capital. 21 references.

  1. Statistical methods of estimating mining costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K.R.

    2011-01-01

    Until it was defunded in 1995, the U.S. Bureau of Mines maintained a Cost Estimating System (CES) for prefeasibility-type economic evaluations of mineral deposits and estimating costs at producing and non-producing mines. This system had a significant role in mineral resource assessments to estimate costs of developing and operating known mineral deposits and predicted undiscovered deposits. For legal reasons, the U.S. Geological Survey cannot update and maintain CES. Instead, statistical tools are under development to estimate mining costs from basic properties of mineral deposits such as tonnage, grade, mineralogy, depth, strip ratio, distance from infrastructure, rock strength, and work index. The first step was to reestimate "Taylor's Rule" which relates operating rate to available ore tonnage. The second step was to estimate statistical models of capital and operating costs for open pit porphyry copper mines with flotation concentrators. For a sample of 27 proposed porphyry copper projects, capital costs can be estimated from three variables: mineral processing rate, strip ratio, and distance from nearest railroad before mine construction began. Of all the variables tested, operating costs were found to be significantly correlated only with strip ratio.

  2. Well-founded cost estimation validated by experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaGuardia, T.S.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: Reliable cost estimating is one of the most important elements of decommissioning planning. Alternative technologies may be evaluated and compared based on their efficiency and effectiveness, and measured against a baseline cost as to the feasibility and benefits derived from the technology. When the plan is complete, those cost considerations ensure that it is economically sound and practical for funding. Estimates of decommissioning costs have been performed and published by many organizations for many different applications. The results often vary because of differences in the work scope. Labor force cost, monetary considerations, oversight costs, the specific contaminated materials involved, the waste stream and peripheral costs associated with that type of waste, or applicable environmental compliance requirements. Many of these differences are unavoidable since a reasonable degree of reliability and accuracy can only be achieved by developing decommissioning cost estimates on a case-by-case site-specific basis. This paper describes the estimating methodology and process applied to develop decommissioning cost estimates. A major effort has been made to standardize these methodologies, and to understand the assumptions and bases that drive the costs. However, estimates are only as accurate as the information available from which to derive the costs. This information includes the assumptions of scope of the work, labour cost inputs, inflationary effects, and financial analyses that project these costs to year of expenditure. Attempts at comparison of estimates for two facilities of similar design and size must clearly identify the assumptions used in developing the estimate, and comparison of actual costs versus estimated costs must reflect these same assumptions. For the nuclear industry to grow, decommissioning estimating tools must improve to keep pace with changing technology, regulations and stakeholder issues. The decommissioning industry needs

  3. Critical analysis of the Hanford spent nuclear fuel project activity based cost estimate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warren, R.N.

    1998-09-29

    In 1997, the SNFP developed a baseline change request (BCR) and submitted it to DOE-RL for approval. The schedule was formally evaluated to have a 19% probability of success [Williams, 1998]. In December 1997, DOE-RL Manager John Wagoner approved the BCR contingent upon a subsequent independent review of the new baseline. The SNFP took several actions during the first quarter of 1998 to prepare for the independent review. The project developed the Estimating Requirements and Implementation Guide [DESH, 1998] and trained cost account managers (CAMS) and other personnel involved in the estimating process in activity-based cost (ABC) estimating techniques. The SNFP then applied ABC estimating techniques to develop the basis for the December Baseline (DB) and documented that basis in Basis of Estimate (BOE) books. These BOEs were provided to DOE in April 1998. DOE commissioned Professional Analysis, Inc. (PAI) to perform a critical analysis (CA) of the DB. PAI`s review formally began on April 13. PAI performed the CA, provided three sets of findings to the SNFP contractor, and initiated reconciliation meetings. During the course of PAI`s review, DOE directed the SNFP to develop a new baseline with a higher probability of success. The contractor transmitted the new baseline, which is referred to as the High Probability Baseline (HPB), to DOE on April 15, 1998 [Williams, 1998]. The HPB was estimated to approach a 90% confidence level on the start of fuel movement [Williams, 1998]. This high probability resulted in an increased cost and a schedule extension. To implement the new baseline, the contractor initiated 26 BCRs with supporting BOES. PAI`s scope was revised on April 28 to add reviewing the HPB and the associated BCRs and BOES.

  4. Contingency Cost estimation for Research reactor Decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin, Hyung Gon; Hong, Yun Jeong

    2016-01-01

    There are many types of cost items in decommissioning cost estimation, however, contingencies are for unforeseen elements of cost within the defined project scope. Regulatory body wants to reasonable quantification for this issue. Many countries have adopted the breakdown of activity dependent and period-dependent costs to structure their estimates. Period-dependent costs could be broken down into defined time frames to reduce overall uncertainties. Several countries apply this notion by having different contingency factors for different phases of the project. This study is a compilation of contingency cost of research reactor and for each country. Simulation techniques using TRIM, MATLAB, and PSpice can be useful tools for designing detector channels. Thus far TRIM, MATLAB and PSpice have been used to calculate the detector current output pulse for SiC semiconductor detectors and to model the pulses that propagate through potential detector channels. This model is useful for optimizing the detector and the resolution for application to neutron monitoring in the Generation IV power reactors

  5. Contingency Cost estimation for Research reactor Decommissioning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Hyung Gon; Hong, Yun Jeong [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    There are many types of cost items in decommissioning cost estimation, however, contingencies are for unforeseen elements of cost within the defined project scope. Regulatory body wants to reasonable quantification for this issue. Many countries have adopted the breakdown of activity dependent and period-dependent costs to structure their estimates. Period-dependent costs could be broken down into defined time frames to reduce overall uncertainties. Several countries apply this notion by having different contingency factors for different phases of the project. This study is a compilation of contingency cost of research reactor and for each country. Simulation techniques using TRIM, MATLAB, and PSpice can be useful tools for designing detector channels. Thus far TRIM, MATLAB and PSpice have been used to calculate the detector current output pulse for SiC semiconductor detectors and to model the pulses that propagate through potential detector channels. This model is useful for optimizing the detector and the resolution for application to neutron monitoring in the Generation IV power reactors.

  6. Cost estimating for CERCLA remedial alternatives a unit cost methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brettin, R.W.; Carr, D.J.; Janke, R.J.

    1995-06-01

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Guidance for Conducting Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies Under CERCLA, Interim Final, dated October 1988 (EPA 1988) requires a detailed analysis be conducted of the most promising remedial alternatives against several evaluation criteria, including cost. To complete the detailed analysis, order-of-magnitude cost estimates (having an accuracy of +50 percent to -30 percent) must be developed for each remedial alternative. This paper presents a methodology for developing cost estimates of remedial alternatives comprised of various technology and process options with a wide range of estimated contaminated media quantities. In addition, the cost estimating methodology provides flexibility for incorporating revisions to remedial alternatives and achieves the desired range of accuracy. It is important to note that the cost estimating methodology presented here was developed as a concurrent path to the development of contaminated media quantity estimates. This methodology can be initiated before contaminated media quantities are estimated. As a result, this methodology is useful in developing cost estimates for use in screening and evaluating remedial technologies and process options. However, remedial alternative cost estimates cannot be prepared without the contaminated media quantity estimates. In the conduct of the feasibility study for Operable Unit 5 at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP), fourteen remedial alternatives were retained for detailed analysis. Each remedial alternative was composed of combinations of remedial technologies and processes which were earlier determined to be best suited for addressing the media-specific contaminants found at the FEMP site, and achieving desired remedial action objectives

  7. NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hihn, Jairus; Juster, Leora; Menzies, Tim; Mathew, George; Johnson, James

    2015-01-01

    The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K-­ nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.

  8. Cost control and risk mitigation of major projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caddy, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    In this paper and presentation, the four major types of estimates will be discussed, i.e., capacity factored, equipment factored, semi-detailed and detailed. Key relationships between particular portions of estimates will be discussed such as the relationship between direct field labor and indirect field costs. Having set the basis for developing a project's cost through estimating, the paper will then list and discuss the fifteen key steps which must be followed to control the costs of a project. Next, the subject of allowances and contingency will be discussed and defined and the differences between the two will be highlighted. Having established exactly what contingency is, the subject of risk analysis through RANGE estimating will be discussed. The methods used to establish a precise contingency and probability of an over/under run will be discussed. Finally, the paper will discuss the methods by which a project manager, owner or contractor can mitigate risks; that is to eliminate, transfer or minimize their effect

  9. Cost estimate of high-level radioactive waste containers for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Russell, E.W.; Clarke, W. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Domian, H.A. [Babcock and Wilcox Co., Lynchburg, VA (United States); Madson, A.A. [Kaiser Engineers California Corp., Oakland, CA (United States)

    1991-08-01

    This report summarizes the bottoms-up cost estimates for fabrication of high-level radioactive waste disposal containers based on the Site Characterization Plan Conceptual Design (SCP-CD). These estimates were acquired by Babcock and Wilcox (B&S) under sub-contract to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). The estimates were obtained for two leading container candidate materials (Alloy 825 and CDA 715), and from other three vendors who were selected from a list of twenty solicited. Three types of container designs were analyzed that represent containers for spent fuel, and for vitrified high-level waste (HLW). The container internal structures were assumed to be AISI-304 stainless steel in all cases, with an annual production rate of 750 containers. Subjective techniques were used for estimating QA/QC costs based on vendor experience and the specifications derived for the LLNL-YMP Quality Assurance program. In addition, an independent QA/QC analysis is reported which was prepared by Kasier Engineering. Based on the cost estimates developed, LLNL recommends that values of $825K and $62K be used for the 1991 TSLCC for the spent fuel and HLW containers, respectively. These numbers represent the most conservative among the three vendors, and are for the high-nickel anstenitic steel (Alloy 825). 6 refs., 7 figs.

  10. Cost estimate of high-level radioactive waste containers for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, E.W.; Clarke, W.; Domian, H.A.; Madson, A.A.

    1991-08-01

    This report summarizes the bottoms-up cost estimates for fabrication of high-level radioactive waste disposal containers based on the Site Characterization Plan Conceptual Design (SCP-CD). These estimates were acquired by Babcock and Wilcox (B ampersand S) under sub-contract to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). The estimates were obtained for two leading container candidate materials (Alloy 825 and CDA 715), and from other three vendors who were selected from a list of twenty solicited. Three types of container designs were analyzed that represent containers for spent fuel, and for vitrified high-level waste (HLW). The container internal structures were assumed to be AISI-304 stainless steel in all cases, with an annual production rate of 750 containers. Subjective techniques were used for estimating QA/QC costs based on vendor experience and the specifications derived for the LLNL-YMP Quality Assurance program. In addition, an independent QA/QC analysis is reported which was prepared by Kasier Engineering. Based on the cost estimates developed, LLNL recommends that values of $825K and $62K be used for the 1991 TSLCC for the spent fuel and HLW containers, respectively. These numbers represent the most conservative among the three vendors, and are for the high-nickel anstenitic steel (Alloy 825). 6 refs., 7 figs

  11. Factors causing cost variation for constructing wastewater projects in Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Remon Fayek Aziz

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Cost is one of the major considerations throughout the project management life cycle and can be regarded as one of the most important parameters of a project and the driving force of project success. Despite its proven importance, it is common to see a construction project failing to achieve its objectives within the specific cost. Cost variation is a very frequent phenomenon and is almost associated with nearly constructing all wastewater projects. Maintaining steady cost projection on wastewater projects had been recently an issue of serious concern, both to the client and project contractors. Cost deviation from initial cost plan had been prevalent on construction sites. However, little or no effort has been made to curtail the phenomenon, this research work attempts to identify, investigate and rank factors perceived to affect cost variation in the Egyptian wastewater projects with respect to their relative importance so as to proffer possible ways of coping with this phenomenon. To achieve this objective, author invited practitioners and experts, comprising a statistically representative sample, to participate in a structured questionnaire survey. Brain storming was taken into consideration, through which a number of cost variation factors were identified for constructing wastewater projects. Totally 52 factors were short-listed to be made part of the questionnaire survey and the survey was conducted with experts and representatives from private, public and local general construction firms. The data were analyzed using Relative Importance Index, ranking and simple percentages. It was analytically discovered that factors such as: (1 Lowest bidding procurement method; (2 Additional work; (3 Bureaucracy in bidding/tendering method; (4 Wrong method of cost estimation; and (5 Funding problems were critical for causing cost variation, while (1 Inaccurate cost estimation; (2 Mode of financing and payment for completed work; (3 Unexpected ground

  12. Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matysiak, L.M.; Burns, M.L.

    1994-03-01

    This final report completes the Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Project, and includes the documentation of the waste management processes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for hazardous, mixed, low-level radioactive solid and transuranic waste, development of the cost estimation model and a user reference manual. The ultimate goal of this effort was to develop an estimate of the life cycle costs for the aforementioned waste types. The Cost Estimation Model is a tool that can be used to calculate the costs of waste management at LANL for the aforementioned waste types, under several different scenarios. Each waste category at LANL is managed in a separate fashion, according to Department of Energy requirements and state and federal regulations. The cost of the waste management process for each waste category has not previously been well documented. In particular, the costs associated with the handling, treatment and storage of the waste have not been well understood. It is anticipated that greater knowledge of these costs will encourage waste generators at the Laboratory to apply waste minimization techniques to current operations. Expected benefits of waste minimization are a reduction in waste volume, decrease in liability and lower waste management costs

  13. Cost analysis of small hydroelectric power plants components and preliminary estimation of global cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basta, C.; Olive, W.J.; Antunes, J.S.

    1990-01-01

    An analysis of cost for each components of Small Hydroelectric Power Plant, taking into account the real costs of these projects is shown. It also presents a global equation which allows a preliminary estimation of cost for each construction. (author)

  14. AX Tank Farm waste retrieval alternatives cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krieg, S.A.

    1998-01-01

    This report presents the estimated costs associated with retrieval of the wastes from the four tanks in AX Tank Farm. The engineering cost estimates developed for this report are based on previous cost data prepared for Project W-320 and the HTI 241-C-106 Heel Retrieval System. The costs presented in this report address only the retrieval of the wastes from the four AX Farm tanks. This includes costs for equipment procurement, fabrication, installation, and operation to retrieve the wastes. The costs to modify the existing plant equipment and systems to support the retrieval equipment are also included. The estimates do not include operational costs associated with pumping the waste out of the waste receiver tank (241-AY-102) between AX Farm retrieval campaigns or transportation, processing, and disposal of the retrieved waste

  15. The Practice of Cost Estimation for Decommissioning of Nuclear Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidova, Ivana; Desecures, Sylvain; Lexow, Thomas; Buonarroti, Stefano; Marini, Giuseppe; Pescatore, Claudio; Rehak, Ivan; Weber, Inge; ); Daniska, Vladimir; Linan, Jorge Borque; Caroll, Simon; Hedberg, Bjoern; De La Gardie, Fredrik; Haenggi, Hannes; Laguardia, Thomas S.; Ridpath, Andy

    2015-01-01

    Decommissioning of both commercial and R and D nuclear facilities is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, and the largest of such industrial decommissioning projects could command considerable budgets. Several approaches are currently being used for decommissioning cost estimations, with an international culture developing in the field. The present cost estimation practice guide was prepared in order to offer international actors specific guidance in preparing quality cost and schedule estimates to support detailed budgeting for the preparation of decommissioning plans, for the securing of funds and for decommissioning implementation. This guide is based on current practices and standards in a number of NEA member countries and aims to help consolidate the practice and process of decommissioning cost estimation so as to make it more widely understood. It offers a useful reference for the practitioner and for training programmes. The remainder of report is divided into the following chapters: - Chapter 2 covers the purpose and nature of decommissioning cost estimates, approaches to cost estimation and the major elements of a cost estimate. - Chapter 3 examines the development of the integrated schedule of the activity-dependent work scope and the determination of the project critical path. - Chapter 4 describes the attributes of a quality assurance programme applicable to cost estimation and the use and cautions of benchmarking the estimate from other estimates or actual costs. - Chapter 5 describes the pyramidal structure of the report, and the scope and content that should be included in the cost study report to ensure consistency and transparency in the estimate underpinnings. - Chapter 6 provides some observations, conclusions and recommendations on the use of this guide

  16. Cost estimation for decommissioning: a review of current practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Sullivan, P.; Pescatore, C.

    2009-01-01

    boundary conditions; cost estimation methodologies; and experience gained during the process. Twelve countries provided responses and participated in the analysis: Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. The final report documenting the study is nearing publication. Its main findings are reported in this article. There is no single cost assessment methodology that applies equally at all stages of a decommissioning project. This means that different cost assessment methodologies may need to be used as the project advances. Such methodologies should be continuously updated using cost data from actual decommissioning projects, thus improving the cost assessment, providing better control of uncertainties and contingencies for each major cost category, and facilitating the preparation of an annualized schedule of expenditures for each facility. In the future, risk management may benefit from an approach that uses a deterministic calculation (base case) that feeds into a probabilistic assessment of future costs. Such approaches may be used to gain a better understanding of potential cost and programme requirements. Attention should also be given early on to socio-economic factors, including impacts caused by loss of employment, to help in building public support and acceptance of a decommissioning project. Early meetings with stakeholders may be used to gain agreement on project boundary conditions, strategy, release criteria and measurement protocols, and waste containers used. In view of the very significant impacts that changes and increases in scope may have on cost estimates, it is important that these be identified and controlled immediately, and incorporated into the estimate so that the estimate may continue to provide a viable benchmarking resource. Characterisation is acknowledged to be an important part of cost estimating accuracy, as it affects system and structure

  17. An investigation into cost overruns for ongoing building projects in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The total amount of cost overruns for any construction project can be fully determined once the project is completed. Estimating the amount of cost overruns at different stages of ongoing construction projects is important for project success. There is, however, a dearth of research for this exercise. This article reports the ...

  18. Parametric Cost Estimates for an International Competitive Edge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, L.T.; Hickey, M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper summarizes the progress to date by CH2M HILL and the UKAEA in development of a parametric modelling capability for estimating the costs of large nuclear decommissioning projects in the United Kingdom (UK) and Europe. The ability to successfully apply parametric cost estimating techniques will be a key factor to commercial success in the UK and European multi-billion dollar waste management, decommissioning and environmental restoration markets. The most useful parametric models will be those that incorporate individual components representing major elements of work: reactor decommissioning, fuel cycle facility decommissioning, waste management facility decommissioning and environmental restoration. Models must be sufficiently robust to estimate indirect costs and overheads, permit pricing analysis and adjustment, and accommodate the intricacies of international monetary exchange, currency fluctuations and contingency. The development of a parametric cost estimating capability is also a key component in building a forward estimating strategy. The forward estimating strategy will enable the preparation of accurate and cost-effective out-year estimates, even when work scope is poorly defined or as yet indeterminate. Preparation of cost estimates for work outside the organizations current sites, for which detailed measurement is not possible and historical cost data does not exist, will also be facilitated. (authors)

  19. Project cost estimation techniques used by most emerging building ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    consisted of five distinct types of contractors, general builders, civil engineers, electricians ... Mmboswobeni Watson Ladzani, Department of Business Management, University of South .... final cost of a proposed project for a given work scope. Thus, by .... Since the test statistic does not exceed the critical region, the null.

  20. Accuracy of hazardous waste project estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hackney, J.W.

    1989-01-01

    The HAZRATE system has been developed to appraise the current state of definition of hazardous waste remedial projects. This is shown to have a high degree of correlation to the financial risk of such projects. The method employs a weighted checklist indicating the current degree of definition of some 150 significant project elements. It is based on the author's experience with a similar system for establishing the risk characteristics of process plant projects (Hackney, 1965 and 1989; 1985). In this paper definition ratings for 15 hazardous waste remedial projects have been correlated with the excesses of their actual costs over their base estimates, excluding any allowances for contingencies. Equations are presented, based on this study, for computation of the contingency allowance needed and estimate accuracy possible at a given stage of project development

  1. Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

    2003-01-01

    Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

  2. AES, Automated Construction Cost Estimation System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holder, D.A.

    1995-01-01

    A - Description of program or function: AES (Automated Estimating System) enters and updates the detailed cost, schedule, contingency, and escalation information contained in a typical construction or other project cost estimates. It combines this information to calculate both un-escalated and escalated and cash flow values for the project. These costs can be reported at varying levels of detail. AES differs from previous versions in at least the following ways: The schedule is entered at the WBS-Participant, Activity level - multiple activities can be assigned to each WBS-Participant combination; the spending curve is defined at the schedule activity level and a weighing factor is defined which determines percentage of cost for the WBS-Participant applied to the schedule activity; Schedule by days instead of Fiscal Year/Quarter; Sales Tax is applied at the Line Item Level- a sales tax codes is selected to indicate Material, Large Single Item, or Professional Services; a 'data filter' has been added to allow user to define data the report is to be generated for. B - Method of solution: Average Escalation Rate: The average escalation for a Bill of is calculated in three steps. 1. A table of quarterly escalation factors is calculated based on the base fiscal year and quarter of the project entered in the estimate record and the annual escalation rates entered in the Standard Value File. 2. The percentage distribution of costs by quarter for the Bill of Material is calculated based on the schedule entered and the curve type. 3. The percent in each fiscal year and quarter in the distribution is multiplied by the escalation factor for the fiscal year and quarter. The sum of these results is the average escalation rate for that Bill of Material. Schedule by curve: The allocation of costs to specific time periods is dependent on three inputs, starting schedule date, ending schedule date, and the percentage of costs allocated to each quarter. Contingency Analysis: The

  3. Reliance on and Reliability of the Engineer’s Estimate in Heavy Civil Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Okere

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available To the contractor, the engineer’s estimate is the target number to aim for, and the basis for a contractor to evaluate the accuracy of their estimate. To the owner, the engineer’s estimate is the basis for funding, evaluation of bids, and for predicting project costs. As such the engineer’s estimate is the benchmark. This research sought to investigate the reliance on, and the reliability of the engineer’s estimate in heavy civil cost estimate. The research objective was to characterize the engineer’s estimate and allow owners and contractors re-evaluate or affirm their reliance on the engineer’s estimate. A literature review was conducted to understand the reliance on the engineer’s estimate, and secondary data from Washington State Department of Transportation was used to investigate the reliability of the engineer’s estimate. The findings show the need for practitioners to re-evaluate their reliance on the engineer’s estimate. The empirical data showed that, within various contexts, the engineer’s estimate fell outside the expected accuracy range of the low bids or the cost to complete projects. The study recommends direct tracking of costs by project owners while projects are under construction, the use of a second estimate to improve the accuracy of their estimates, and use of the cost estimating practices found in highly reputable construction companies.

  4. Development of computer program for estimating decommissioning cost - 59037

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hak-Soo; Park, Jong-Kil

    2012-01-01

    The programs for estimating the decommissioning cost have been developed for many different purposes and applications. The estimation of decommissioning cost is required a large amount of data such as unit cost factors, plant area and its inventory, waste treatment, etc. These make it difficult to use manual calculation or typical spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel. The cost estimation for eventual decommissioning of nuclear power plants is a prerequisite for safe, timely and cost-effective decommissioning. To estimate the decommissioning cost more accurately and systematically, KHNP, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd, developed a decommissioning cost estimating computer program called 'DeCAT-Pro', which is Decommission-ing Cost Assessment Tool - Professional. (Hereinafter called 'DeCAT') This program allows users to easily assess the decommissioning cost with various decommissioning options. Also, this program provides detailed reporting for decommissioning funding requirements as well as providing detail project schedules, cash-flow, staffing plan and levels, and waste volumes by waste classifications and types. KHNP is planning to implement functions for estimating the plant inventory using 3-D technology and for classifying the conditions of radwaste disposal and transportation automatically. (authors)

  5. Factors influencing cost over-run in Indian construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cindrela Devi A.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Construction cost is the most important criteria of project success and hence the construction project performance is generally expressed in terms of cost and its variance from the budget. In spite of having extant literature, cost estimation methods, cost indices etc., construction projects rarely meet the budgeted cost. This research study focuses on the construction cost overrun and to identify the various factors that affects the construction cost performance. Based on an extensive literature review and input from industry experts, sixty eight factors that causes cost overrun were identified for investigation. Further, a structured questionnaire survey was conducted among the industry experts and the collected data has been analysed statistically. It is concluded that the factors namely scope creep, construction delays, rework and practise of awarding the contract to the lowest bidder are most significant factors for construction cost overrun in non-infrastructural Indian projects. The relative importance of the listed factors used to guide the project team in addressing the cost related risks involved in the projects. The findings are expected to bridge the gap in the current construction cost management practices.

  6. Cost estimation for decommissioning of research reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grossi, Pablo Andrade; Tello, Cledola Cassia Oliveira de; Segabinaze, Roberto de Oliveira; Daniska, Vladimir

    2013-01-01

    In the case of research reactors, the limited data that is available tends to provide only overall decommissioning costs, without any breakdown of the main cost elements. In order to address this subject, it is important to collect and analyse all available data of decommissioning costs for the research reactors. The IAEA has started the DACCORD Project focused on data analysis and costing of research reactors decommissioning. Data collection is organized in accordance with the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC), developed jointly by the IAEA, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the European Commission. The specific aims of the project include the development of representative and comparative data and datasets for preliminary costing for decommissioning. This paper will focus on presenting a technique to consider several representative input data in accordance with the ISDC structure and using the CERREX (Cost Estimation for Research Reactors in Excel) software developed by IAEA. (author)

  7. Comparing NASA and ESA Cost Estimating Methods for Human Missions to Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Charles D.; vanPelt, Michel O.

    2004-01-01

    To compare working methodologies between the cost engineering functions in NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and ESA European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), as well as to set-up cost engineering capabilities for future manned Mars projects and other studies which involve similar subsystem technologies in MSFC and ESTEC, a demonstration cost estimate exercise was organized. This exercise was a direct way of enhancing not only cooperation between agencies but also both agencies commitment to credible cost analyses. Cost engineers in MSFC and ESTEC independently prepared life-cycle cost estimates for a reference human Mars project and subsequently compared the results and estimate methods in detail. As a non-sensitive, public domain reference case for human Mars projects, the Mars Direct concept was chosen. In this paper the results of the exercise are shown; the differences and similarities in estimate methodologies, philosophies, and databases between MSFC and ESTEC, as well as the estimate results for the Mars Direct concept. The most significant differences are explained and possible estimate improvements identified. In addition, the Mars Direct plan and the extensive cost breakdown structure jointly set-up by MSFC and ESTEC for this concept are presented. It was found that NASA applied estimate models mainly based on historic Apollo and Space Shuttle cost data, taking into account the changes in technology since then. ESA used models mostly based on European satellite and launcher cost data, taking into account the higher equipment and testing standards for human space flight. Most of NASA's and ESA s estimates for the Mars Direct case are comparable, but there are some important, consistent differences in the estimates for: 1) Large Structures and Thermal Control subsystems; 2) System Level Management, Engineering, Product Assurance and Assembly, Integration and Test/Verification activities; 3) Mission Control; 4) Space Agency Program Level

  8. Procedures and models for estimating preconstruction costs of highway projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    This study presents data driven and component based PE cost prediction models by utilizing critical factors retrieved from ten years of historical project data obtained from ODOT roadway division. The study used factor analysis of covariance and corr...

  9. COST AND TIME ESTIMATES DURING THE SUPPLIER SELECTION OF AN INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR LEGAL AREA: A CASE STUDY COMPARING TRADITIONAL AND AGILE PROJECT APPROACHES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vieira, G. L. S.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Considering a direct correlation between projects requirements details levels and their performance, this paper aims to evaluate whether the adoption of more extensive and detailed cost, time and scope estimation processes based on both practices, traditional and agile, and executed concurrently with the supplier selection stage, could guarantee greater accuracy in these estimates, thus increasing project success rates. Based on a case study for the information system project implementation into the legal area of a large Brazilian company, five suppliers had their proposals analyzed and compared in terms of the costs and deadlines involved, as well as the project management processes used in theirs estimates. From the obtained results, it was possible to observe that not all companies follow, at least during the prospecting phase, their service proposals described management processes, according to the theory. Another important finding was that the proposals involving, at least partially, agile approach concepts, were more likely to justify their estimates. These proposals still presented lower values, whenever compared to those less adherents to the theoretical concepts, as those based on traditional concepts.

  10. COSTMODL - AN AUTOMATED SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT COST ESTIMATION TOOL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roush, G. B.

    1994-01-01

    The cost of developing computer software consumes an increasing portion of many organizations' budgets. As this trend continues, the capability to estimate the effort and schedule required to develop a candidate software product becomes increasingly important. COSTMODL is an automated software development estimation tool which fulfills this need. Assimilating COSTMODL to any organization's particular environment can yield significant reduction in the risk of cost overruns and failed projects. This user-customization capability is unmatched by any other available estimation tool. COSTMODL accepts a description of a software product to be developed and computes estimates of the effort required to produce it, the calendar schedule required, and the distribution of effort and staffing as a function of the defined set of development life-cycle phases. This is accomplished by the five cost estimation algorithms incorporated into COSTMODL: the NASA-developed KISS model; the Basic, Intermediate, and Ada COCOMO models; and the Incremental Development model. This choice affords the user the ability to handle project complexities ranging from small, relatively simple projects to very large projects. Unique to COSTMODL is the ability to redefine the life-cycle phases of development and the capability to display a graphic representation of the optimum organizational structure required to develop the subject project, along with required staffing levels and skills. The program is menu-driven and mouse sensitive with an extensive context-sensitive help system that makes it possible for a new user to easily install and operate the program and to learn the fundamentals of cost estimation without having prior training or separate documentation. The implementation of these functions, along with the customization feature, into one program makes COSTMODL unique within the industry. COSTMODL was written for IBM PC compatibles, and it requires Turbo Pascal 5.0 or later and Turbo

  11. Field activity cost estimates for the first 3 years of the World Bank Loan Project for schistosomiasis control in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, J; Booth, M; Jenkins, J; Wang, H; Tanner, M

    1998-12-01

    The World Bank Loan Project for schistosomiasis in China commenced field activities in 1992. In this paper, we describe disease control strategies for levels of different endemicity, and estimate unit costs and total expenditure of screening, treatment (cattle and humans) and snail control for 8 provinces where Schistosoma japonicum infection is endemic. Overall, we estimate that more than 21 million US dollars were spent on field activities during the first three years of the project. Mollusciciding (43% of the total expenditure) and screening (28% of the total) are estimated to have the most expensive field activities. However, despite the expense of screening, a simple model predicts that selective chemotherapy could have been cheaper than mass chemotherapy in areas where infection prevalence was higher than 15%, which was the threshold for mass chemotherapy intervention. It is concluded that considerable cost savings could be made in the future by narrowing the scope of snail control activities, redefining the threshold infection prevalence for mass chemotherapy, defining smaller administrative units, and developing rapid assessment tools.

  12. Abbreviated report of the critical analysis of the spent nuclear fuel project's activity-based cost estimate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warren, R.N.

    1998-01-01

    In 1997, the SNFP developed a baseline change request (BCR) and submitted it to DOE-RL for approval. The schedule was formally evaluated to have a 19% probability of success [Williams, 1998]. In December 1997, DOE-RL Manager John Wagoner approved the BCR contingent upon a subsequent independent review of the new baseline. The SNFP took several actions during the first quarter of 1998 to prepare for the independent review. The project developed the Estimating Requirements and Implementation Guide [DESH, 1998] and trained cost account managers (CAMS) and other personnel involved in the estimating process in activity-based cost (ABC) estimating techniques. The SNFP then applied ABC estimating techniques to develop the basis for the December Baseline (DB) and documented that basis in Basis of Estimate (BOE) books. These BOEs were provided to DOE in April 1998. DOE commissioned Professional Analysis, Inc. (PAI) to perform a critical analysis (CA) of the DB. PAI's review formally began on April 13. PAI performed the CA, provided three sets of findings to the SNFP contractor, and initiated reconciliation meetings. During the course of PAI's review, DOE directed the SNFP to develop a new baseline with a higher probability of success. The contractor transmitted the new baseline, which is referred to as the High Probability Baseline (HPB), to DOE on April 15, 1998 [Williams, 1998]. The HPB was estimated to approach a 90% confidence level on the start of fuel movement [Williams, 1998]. This high probability resulted in an increased cost and a schedule extension. To implement the new baseline, the contractor initiated 26 BCRs with supporting BOES. PAI's scope was revised on April 28 to add reviewing the HPB and the associated BCRs and BOES

  13. A REVIEW OF ESTIMATION OF SOFTWARE PRODUCTS DEVELOPMENT COSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edin Osmanbegović

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the modern business and management of business processes, the standardization of procedures allows the creation of added value, increasing competitiveness and success in the business of an organization. Evaluation of the budget for software development is crucial to the success of an IT project, because the inability to make a realistic assessment leads to inadequate project plans, customer dissatisfaction, poor quality of software products, and reduced profits. In order to minimize such situations, making accurate and reliable software cost estimation should be carried out at all stages of the project life cycle. Although hundreds of research articles focusing on the application of different methods of budget estimates of the software product have been published so far, there is no comprehensive review of the current situation or review of research trends in the budget estimates of the software product. This paper aims to create a framework for estimation of costs of development of software products by providing an overview of the most influential researchers, the most influential articles published in the WoS database, the most used keywords for searching the articles, as well as a review of the estimation techniques used in budget estimates of the software product.

  14. IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Cost Estimate Summary (Leveraged NDC Case).

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, James M.; Prescott, Ryan; Dawson, Jericah M.; Huelskamp, Robert M.

    2014-11-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, based on leveraging a fully funded, Sandia executed NDC Modernization project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

  15. Early‐Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Biorefinery Processes: A Comparative Study of Heuristic Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couturier, Jean‐Luc; Kokossis, Antonis; Dubois, Jean‐Luc

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Biorefineries offer a promising alternative to fossil‐based processing industries and have undergone rapid development in recent years. Limited financial resources and stringent company budgets necessitate quick capital estimation of pioneering biorefinery projects at the early stages of their conception to screen process alternatives, decide on project viability, and allocate resources to the most promising cases. Biorefineries are capital‐intensive projects that involve state‐of‐the‐art technologies for which there is no prior experience or sufficient historical data. This work reviews existing rapid cost estimation practices, which can be used by researchers with no previous cost estimating experience. It also comprises a comparative study of six cost methods on three well‐documented biorefinery processes to evaluate their accuracy and precision. The results illustrate discrepancies among the methods because their extrapolation on biorefinery data often violates inherent assumptions. This study recommends the most appropriate rapid cost methods and urges the development of an improved early‐stage capital cost estimation tool suitable for biorefinery processes. PMID:27484398

  16. Econometric estimation of country-specific hospital costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murray Christopher JL

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973–2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals. The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs. In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

  17. Cost Engineering Techniques and Their Applicability for Cost Estimation of Organic Rankine Cycle Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanne Lemmens

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The potential of organic Rankine cycle (ORC systems is acknowledged by both considerable research and development efforts and an increasing number of applications. Most research aims at improving ORC systems through technical performance optimization of various cycle architectures and working fluids. The assessment and optimization of technical feasibility is at the core of ORC development. Nonetheless, economic feasibility is often decisive when it comes down to considering practical instalments, and therefore an increasing number of publications include an estimate of the costs of the designed ORC system. Various methods are used to estimate ORC costs but the resulting values are rarely discussed with respect to accuracy and validity. The aim of this paper is to provide insight into the methods used to estimate these costs and open the discussion about the interpretation of these results. A review of cost engineering practices shows there has been a long tradition of industrial cost estimation. Several techniques have been developed, but the expected accuracy range of the best techniques used in research varies between 10% and 30%. The quality of the estimates could be improved by establishing up-to-date correlations for the ORC industry in particular. Secondly, the rapidly growing ORC cost literature is briefly reviewed. A graph summarizing the estimated ORC investment costs displays a pattern of decreasing costs for increasing power output. Knowledge on the actual costs of real ORC modules and projects remains scarce. Finally, the investment costs of a known heat recovery ORC system are discussed and the methodologies and accuracies of several approaches are demonstrated using this case as benchmark. The best results are obtained with factorial estimation techniques such as the module costing technique, but the accuracies may diverge by up to +30%. Development of correlations and multiplication factors for ORC technology in particular is

  18. Estimation development cost, study case: Quality Management System Reactor TRIGA Mark III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antúnez Barbosa, Tereso Antonio; Valdovinos Rosas, Rosa María; Marcial Romero, José Raymundo; Ramos Corchado, Marco Antonio; Edgar Herrera Arriaga

    2016-01-01

    The process of estimating costs in software engineering is not a simple task, it must be addressed carefully to obtain an efficient strategy to solve problems associated with the effort, cost and time of activities that are performed in the development of an information system project. In this context the main goal for both developers and customers is the cost, since developers are worry about the effort pay-load and customers are worry about the product pay-load. However, in other fields the cost of goods depends on the activity or process that is performed, thereby deduce that the main cost of the final product of a development project software project is undoubtedly its size. In this paper a comparative study of common models for estimating costs are developed. These models are used today in order to create a structured analysis to provide the necessary information about cost, time and effort for making decisions in a software development project. Finally the models are applied to a case study, which is a system called Monitorizacion Automatica del Sistema de Gestion de Calidad del Reactor TRIGA Mark III. (author)

  19. Cost function estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, C K; Andersen, K; Kragh-Sørensen, P

    2000-01-01

    on these criteria, a two-part model was chosen. In this model, the probability of incurring any costs was estimated using a logistic regression, while the level of the costs was estimated in the second part of the model. The choice of model had a substantial impact on the predicted health care costs, e...

  20. Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification: Independent Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, M.

    2011-10-01

    This independent review is the conclusion arrived at from data collection, document reviews, interviews and deliberation from December 2010 through April 2011 and the technical potential of Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification. The Panel reviewed the current H2A case (Version 2.12, Case 01D) for hydrogen production via biomass gasification and identified four principal components of hydrogen levelized cost: CapEx; feedstock costs; project financing structure; efficiency/hydrogen yield. The panel reexamined the assumptions around these components and arrived at new estimates and approaches that better reflect the current technology and business environments.

  1. Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Project: Cost Reduction and Productivity Improvement Program Project Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-11-01

    The purpose of the Cost Reduction/Productivity Improvement Program Plan is to formalize and improve upon existing efforts to control costs which have been underway since project inception. This program plan has been coordinated with the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) and the DOE Field Office, Albuquerque (AL). It incorporates prior Uranium Mill Tallings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Office guidance issued on the subject. The opportunities for reducing cosh and improving productivity are endless. The CR/PIP has these primary objectives: Improve productivity and quality; heighten the general cost consciousness of project participants, at all levels of their organizations; identify and implement specific innovative employee ideas that extend beyond what is required through existing processes and procedures; emphasize efforts that create additional value for the money spent by maintaining the project Total Estimated Cost (TEC) at the lowest possible level

  2. SECON - A tool for estimation of storage costs and storage project revenue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, O.

    1997-01-01

    The SECON model Storage ECONomics is useful for gas suppliers, storage operators, gas distributors and consumers when investigating new storage possibilities. SECON has been used within the Sydkraft group to compare cost for different types of storage and to identify the market niche for lined rock cavern (LRC) storage. In the model cost for the different storage types, salt caverns, LNG, and LRC can be compared. By using input according to market needs each storage type can be validated for a specific service e.g. peak shaving, seasonal storage or balancing. The project revenue can also be calculated. SECON includes three models for income calculation; US storage service, Trading and Avoided Supply Contract Costs. The income models calculates annual turnover, pay of time, net present value, internal rate of return and max. liquidity shortfall for the project. The SECON will facilitate sensitivity analysis both regarding cost for different services and different storage types and on the income side by using different scenarios. At the poster session SECON will be presented live and the delegates will have the opportunity to test the model. (au)

  3. The projected costs of electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cameron, R.; Keppler, J. H.

    2010-10-01

    This paper describes the outcomes from the joint report between the Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Energy Agency of the OECD on the projected costs of generating electricity. The study contains data on electricity generating costs for almost 200 power plants provided by 17 OECD member countries, 4 non-OECD countries and 4 industrial companies or industry organisations. The paper presents the projected costs of generating electricity calculated according to common methodological rules on the basis of the data provided by participating countries and organisations. Data were received for a wide variety of fuels and technologies, including coal, gas, nuclear, hydro, onshore and offshore wind, biomass, solar, wave and tidal. Cost estimates were also provided for combined heat and power plants, as well as for coal plants that include carbon capture. As in previous studies of the same series, all costs and benefits were discounted or capitalised to the date of commissioning in order to calculate the state of the electricity costs per MWh, based on plant operating lifetime data. In addition, the paper contains a discussion of a number of factors affecting the cost of capital, the outlook for carbon capture and storage and the working of electricity markets. (Author)

  4. Transportation Infrastructure: Managing the Costs of Large-Dollar Highway Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-02-01

    The General Accounting Office (GAO) was requested to assess the effectiveness of the Federal Highway Administration's (FHWA's) oversight of the costs of large-dollar highway and bridge projects (those with a total estimated cost of over $100 million)...

  5. Development of Cost Estimation Methodology of Decommissioning for PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Il; Yoo, Yeon Jae; Lim, Yong Kyu; Chang, Hyeon Sik; Song, Geun Ho

    2013-01-01

    The permanent closure of nuclear power plant should be conducted with the strict laws and the profound planning including the cost and schedule estimation because the plant is very contaminated with the radioactivity. In Korea, there are two types of the nuclear power plant. One is the pressurized light water reactor (PWR) and the other is the pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) called as CANDU reactor. Also, the 50% of the operating nuclear power plant in Korea is the PWRs which were originally designed by CE (Combustion Engineering). There have been experiences about the decommissioning of Westinghouse type PWR, but are few experiences on that of CE type PWR. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop the cost estimation methodology and evaluate technical level of decommissioning for the application to CE type PWR based on the system engineering technology. The aim of present study is to develop the cost estimation methodology of decommissioning for application to PWR. Through the study, the following conclusions are obtained: · Based on the system engineering, the decommissioning work can be classified as Set, Subset, Task, Subtask and Work cost units. · The Set and Task structure are grouped as 29 Sets and 15 Task s, respectively. · The final result shows the cost and project schedule for the project control and risk management. · The present results are preliminary and should be refined and improved based on the modeling and cost data reflecting available technology and current costs like labor and waste data

  6. A Semantics-Based Approach to Construction Cost Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niknam, Mehrdad

    2015-01-01

    A construction project requires collaboration of different organizations such as owner, designer, contractor, and resource suppliers. These organizations need to exchange information to improve their teamwork. Understanding the information created in other organizations requires specialized human resources. Construction cost estimating is one of…

  7. The determination of the horizon of the calculation of the factor of the clean current cost for estimation of the cost-performance investment project on enterprise of the rail-freight traffic

    OpenAIRE

    Minka, V.

    2010-01-01

    Expressions are Received for estimation of length of the horizon calculation factor of the clean current cost depending on accuracy of source technical-econmic information about investment projects with indefinitely big period of existence.

  8. Estimating the impact of enterprise resource planning project management decisions on post-implementation maintenance costs: a case study using simulation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryling, Meg

    2010-11-01

    Organisations often make implementation decisions with little consideration for the maintenance phase of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system, resulting in significant recurring maintenance costs. Poor cost estimations are likely related to the lack of an appropriate framework for enterprise-wide pre-packaged software maintenance, which requires an ongoing relationship with the software vendor (Markus, M.L., Tanis, C., and Fenema, P.C., 2000. Multisite ERP implementation. CACM, 43 (4), 42-46). The end result is that critical project decisions are made with little empirical data, resulting in substantial long-term cost impacts. The product of this research is a formal dynamic simulation model that enables theory testing, scenario exploration and policy analysis. The simulation model ERPMAINT1 was developed by combining and extending existing frameworks in several research domains, and by incorporating quantitative and qualitative case study data. The ERPMAINT1 model evaluates tradeoffs between different ERP project management decisions and their impact on post-implementation total cost of ownership (TCO). Through model simulations a variety of dynamic insights were revealed that could assist ERP project managers. Major findings from the simulation show that upfront investments in mentoring and system exposure translate to long-term cost savings. The findings also indicate that in addition to customisations, add-ons have a significant impact on TCO.

  9. Estimating Maintenance Cost for Web Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion IVAN

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The current paper tackles the issue of determining a method for estimating maintenance costs for web applications. The current state of research in the field of web application maintenance is summarized and leading theories and results are highlighted. The cost of web maintenance is determined by the number of man-hours invested in maintenance tasks. Web maintenance tasks are categorized into content maintenance and technical maintenance. Research is centered on analyzing technical maintenance tasks. The research hypothesis is formulated on the assumption that the number of man-hours invested in maintenance tasks can be assessed based on the web application’s user interaction level, complexity and content update effort. Data regarding the costs of maintenance tasks is collected from 24 maintenance projects implemented by a web development company that tackles a wide area of web applications. Homogeneity and diversity of collected data is submitted for debate by presenting a sample of the data and depicting the overall size and comprehensive nature of the entire dataset. A set of metrics dedicated to estimating maintenance costs in web applications is defined based on conclusions formulated by analyzing the collected data and the theories and practices dominating the current state of research. Metrics are validated with regards to the initial research hypothesis. Research hypothesis are validated and conclusions are formulated on the topic of estimating the maintenance cost of web applications. The limits of the research process which represented the basis for the current paper are enunciated. Future research topics are submitted for debate.

  10. Estimating large complex projects Estimando proyectos grandes y complejos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cliff Schexnayder

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Managing large capital construction projects requires the coordination of a multitude of human, organizational, technical, and natural resources. Quite often, the engineering and construction complexities of such projects are overshadowed by economic, societal, and political challenges. The ramifications and effects, which result from differences between early project cost estimates and the bid price or the final project cost, are significant. Over the time span between the initiation of a project and the completion of construction many factors influence a project's final costs. This time span is normally several years in duration but for highly complex and technologically challenging projects, project duration can easily exceed a decade. Over that period, changes to the project scope often occur. The subject here is a presentation of strategies that support realistic cost estimating. Through literature review and interviews with transportation agencies in the U.S. and internationally the authors developed a database of the factors that are the root causes of cost estimation problemsGestionar proyectos de construcción de grandes capitales requiere de la coordinación de una multitud de recursos humanos, organizacionales, técnicos y naturales. Frecuentemente, las complejidades del diseño y construcción de esos grandes proyectos son tapadas por sus desafíos económicos, políticos y sociales. Las ramificaciones y efectos que resultan de las diferencias entre la estimación de costo inicial, el costo de la propuesta adjudicada y el costo final del proyecto son significativas. Hay numerosos factores que inciden en el costo final del proyecto entre su inicio y finalización. La duración es generalmente de varios años y puede incluso superar la década para aquellos especialmente complejos y desafiantes. En ese período de tiempo, cambios en los alcances del proyecto cambian frecuentemente. El tópico del presente artículo es mostrar

  11. Environmental cost of using poor decision metrics to prioritize environmental projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pannell, David J; Gibson, Fiona L

    2016-04-01

    Conservation decision makers commonly use project-scoring metrics that are inconsistent with theory on optimal ranking of projects. As a result, there may often be a loss of environmental benefits. We estimated the magnitudes of these losses for various metrics that deviate from theory in ways that are common in practice. These metrics included cases where relevant variables were omitted from the benefits metric, project costs were omitted, and benefits were calculated using a faulty functional form. We estimated distributions of parameters from 129 environmental projects from Australia, New Zealand, and Italy for which detailed analyses had been completed previously. The cost of using poor prioritization metrics (in terms of lost environmental values) was often high--up to 80% in the scenarios we examined. The cost in percentage terms was greater when the budget was smaller. The most costly errors were omitting information about environmental values (up to 31% loss of environmental values), omitting project costs (up to 35% loss), omitting the effectiveness of management actions (up to 9% loss), and using a weighted-additive decision metric for variables that should be multiplied (up to 23% loss). The latter 3 are errors that occur commonly in real-world decision metrics, in combination often reducing potential benefits from conservation investments by 30-50%. Uncertainty about parameter values also reduced the benefits from investments in conservation projects but often not by as much as faulty prioritization metrics. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. Cost estimates for near-term depolyment of advanced traffic management systems. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stevens, S.S.; Chin, S.M.

    1993-02-15

    The objective of this study is to provide cost est engineering, design, installation, operation and maintenance of Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS) in the largest 75 metropolitan areas in the United States. This report gives estimates for deployment costs for ATMS in the next five years, subject to the qualifications and caveats set out in following paragraphs. The report considers infrastructure components required to realize fully a functional ATMS over each of two highway networks (as discussed in the Section describing our general assumptions) under each of the four architectures identified in the MITRE Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems (IVHS) Architecture studies. The architectures are summarized in this report in Table 2. Estimates are given for eight combinations of highway networks and architectures. We estimate that it will cost between $8.5 Billion (minimal network) and $26 Billion (augmented network) to proceed immediately with deployment of ATMS in the largest 75 metropolitan areas. Costs are given in 1992 dollars, and are not adjusted for future inflation. Our estimates are based partially on completed project costs, which have been adjusted to 1992 dollars. We assume that a particular architecture will be chosen; projected costs are broken by architecture.

  13. Management information system for cost-schedule integration control for nuclear power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Wei; Wang Yongqing; Tian Li

    2001-01-01

    Based on the project management experience abroad and at home, a cost-schedule integration control model was developed to improve nuclear power project management. The model integrates cost data with the scheduling data by unity coding to efficiently implement cost-schedule integration control on line. The software system architecture and database is designed and implemented. The system functions include estimating and forecasting dynamically cash flow, scheduling and evaluating deviation from the cost-schedule plan, etc. The research and development of the system should improve the architecture of computer integrated management information systems for nuclear power projects in China

  14. Estimating the Cost of Youth Disengagement in New Zealand

    OpenAIRE

    Gail Pacheco; Jessica Dye

    2013-01-01

    Youth exclusion, disengagement, and overall underutilisation in the labour market has short term costs to the economy, as well as long term impacts on society. In this research we project the loss to productivity, measured in foregone wages, and the expected cost to public finances for NZ and Auckland youth aged 15-24 not in employment, education, or training (collectively known as NEET). We estimate the expected per capita cost of each NEET youth in NZ is approximately $26,847 over the next ...

  15. Controlling Campylobacter in the chicken meat chain; Estimation of intervention costs

    OpenAIRE

    Mangen, M.J.J.; Havelaar, A.H.; Poppe, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    Campylobacter infections are a serious public health problem in the Netherlands. As a part of the CARMA project, this study focus on the estimation of the potential direct costs related to the implementation of various intervention measures to control campylobacters in the chicken meat chain. Costs were estimated using a second-order stochastic simulation model. Treating only positively tested flocks is far cheaper than treating all flocks. The implementation of equipment to reduce faecal lea...

  16. Controlling Campylobacter in the chicken meat chain; Estimation of intervention costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mangen, M.J.J.; Havelaar, A.H.; Poppe, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    Campylobacter infections are a serious public health problem in the Netherlands. As a part of the CARMA project, this study focus on the estimation of the potential direct costs related to the implementation of various intervention measures to control campylobacters in the chicken meat chain. Costs

  17. Cost estimate of electricity produced by TPV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palfinger, Günther; Bitnar, Bernd; Durisch, Wilhelm; Mayor, Jean-Claude; Grützmacher, Detlev; Gobrecht, Jens

    2003-05-01

    A crucial parameter for the market penetration of TPV is its electricity production cost. In this work a detailed cost estimate is performed for a Si photocell based TPV system, which was developed for electrically self-powered operation of a domestic heating system. The results are compared to a rough estimate of cost of electricity for a projected GaSb based system. For the calculation of the price of electricity, a lifetime of 20 years, an interest rate of 4.25% per year and maintenance costs of 1% of the investment are presumed. To determine the production cost of TPV systems with a power of 12-20 kW, the costs of the TPV components and 100 EUR kW-1el,peak for assembly and miscellaneous were estimated. Alternatively, the system cost for the GaSb system was derived from the cost of the photocells and from the assumption that they account for 35% of the total system cost. The calculation was done for four different TPV scenarios which include a Si based prototype system with existing technology (etasys = 1.0%), leading to 3000 EUR kW-1el,peak, an optimized Si based system using conventional, available technology (etasys = 1.5%), leading to 900 EUR kW-1el,peak, a further improved system with future technology (etasys = 5%), leading to 340 EUR kW-1el,peak and a GaSb based system (etasys = 12.3% with recuperator), leading to 1900 EUR kW-1el,peak. Thus, prices of electricity from 6 to 25 EURcents kWh-1el (including gas of about 3.5 EURcents kWh-1) were calculated and compared with those of fuel cells (31 EURcents kWh-1) and gas engines (23 EURcents kWh-1).

  18. Engineering estimates versus impact evaluation of energy efficiency projects: Regression discontinuity evidence from a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lang, Corey; Siler, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    Energy efficiency upgrades have been gaining widespread attention across global channels as a cost-effective approach to addressing energy challenges. The cost-effectiveness of these projects is generally predicted using engineering estimates pre-implementation, often with little ex post analysis of project success. In this paper, for a suite of energy efficiency projects, we directly compare ex ante engineering estimates of energy savings to ex post econometric estimates that use 15-min interval, building-level energy consumption data. In contrast to most prior literature, our econometric results confirm the engineering estimates, even suggesting the engineering estimates were too modest. Further, we find heterogeneous efficiency impacts by time of day, suggesting select efficiency projects can be useful in reducing peak load. - Highlights: • Regression discontinuity used to estimate energy savings from efficiency projects. • Ex post econometric estimates validate ex ante engineering estimates of energy savings. • Select efficiency projects shown to reduce peak load

  19. The Psychology of Cost Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Andy

    2016-01-01

    Cost estimation for large (and even not so large) government programs is a challenge. The number and magnitude of cost overruns associated with large Department of Defense (DoD) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs highlight the difficulties in developing and promulgating accurate cost estimates. These overruns can be the result of inadequate technology readiness or requirements definition, the whims of politicians or government bureaucrats, or even as failures of the cost estimating profession itself. However, there may be another reason for cost overruns that is right in front of us, but only recently have we begun to grasp it: the fact that cost estimators and their customers are human. The last 70+ years of research into human psychology and behavioral economics have yielded amazing findings into how we humans process and use information to make judgments and decisions. What these scientists have uncovered is surprising: humans are often irrational and illogical beings, making decisions based on factors such as emotion and perception, rather than facts and data. These built-in biases to our thinking directly affect how we develop our cost estimates and how those cost estimates are used. We cost estimators can use this knowledge of biases to improve our cost estimates and also to improve how we communicate and work with our customers. By understanding how our customers think, and more importantly, why they think the way they do, we can have more productive relationships and greater influence. By using psychology to our advantage, we can more effectively help the decision maker and our organizations make fact-based decisions.

  20. Case Study to Apply Work Difficulty Factors to Decommissioning Cost Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Taesik; Jung, Hyejin; Oh, Jaeyoung; Kim, Younggook [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    This article is prepared as a guideline regarding how to apply the work difficult factor (WDF) when it comes to the estimates of the decommissioning costs. Although several cases of the decommissioning cost estimates have been made for a few commercial nuclear power plants, the different technical, site-specific economic assumptions used make it difficult to interpret those cost estimates and compare them with that of Kori-1. In addition, it is clear that we are supposed to experience difficulties being created in the process of the Kori-1 and the virtual inaccessibility to the limited areas at the pre-decommissioning stage. Estimating decommissioning costs is one of the most crucial processes since it encompasses all the spectrum of decommissioning activities from the planning to the last evaluation on whether the decommissioning has successfully been proceeded from the safety and economic perspectives. Here I suggested the activity dependent costs is only related to WDFs of the incumbent plant planning or undergone to be decommissioned since as a matter of fact, estimating WDFs is the core process to articulately scrutinize the practical costs to apply to Kori-1 project.

  1. Highway project cost estimating and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-02-01

    "This report provides detailed information about the project objectives, deliverables, and findings. The project team : thoroughly reviewed the Montana Department of Transportation (MDT) structure, operations, and current procedures as : related to M...

  2. Projected costs of generating electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    Previous editions of Projected Costs of Generating Electricity have served as the reference in this field for energy policy makers, electricity system analysts and energy economists. The study is particularly timely in the light of current discussions of energy policy in many countries. The joint IEA/NEA study provides generation cost estimates for over a hundred power plants that use a variety of fuels and technologies. These include coal-fired, gas-fired, nuclear, hydro, solar and wind plants. Cost estimates are also given for combined heat and power plants that use coal, gas and combustible renewables. Data and information for this study were provided by experts from 19 OECD member countries and 3 non-member countries. The power plants examined in the study use technologies available today and considered by participating countries as candidates for commissioning by 2010-2015 or earlier. Investors and other decision makers will also need to take the full range of other factors into account (such as security of supply, risks and carbon emissions) when selecting an electricity generation technology. The study shows that the competitiveness of alternative generation sources and technologies ultimately depends on many parameters: there is no clear-cut ''winner''. Major issues related to generation costs addressed in the report include: descriptions of state-of-the-art generation technologies; the methodologies for incorporating risk in cost assessments; the impact of carbon emission trading; and how to integrate wind power into the electricity grid. An appendix to the report provides country statements on generation technologies and costs. Previous studies in the series were published in 1983, 1986, 1990, 1993 and 1998. (author)

  3. ANN Based Approach for Estimation of Construction Costs of Sports Fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Juszczyk

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimates are essential for the success of construction projects. Neural networks, as the tools of artificial intelligence, offer a significant potential in this field. Applying neural networks, however, requires respective studies due to the specifics of different kinds of facilities. This paper presents the proposal of an approach to the estimation of construction costs of sports fields which is based on neural networks. The general applicability of artificial neural networks in the formulated problem with cost estimation is investigated. An applicability of multilayer perceptron networks is confirmed by the results of the initial training of a set of various artificial neural networks. Moreover, one network was tailored for mapping a relationship between the total cost of construction works and the selected cost predictors which are characteristic of sports fields. Its prediction quality and accuracy were assessed positively. The research results legitimatize the proposed approach.

  4. Approaches to estimating decommissioning costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.I.

    1990-07-01

    The chronological development of methodology for estimating the cost of nuclear reactor power station decommissioning is traced from the mid-1970s through 1990. Three techniques for developing decommissioning cost estimates are described. The two viable techniques are compared by examining estimates developed for the same nuclear power station using both methods. The comparison shows that the differences between the estimates are due largely to differing assumptions regarding the size of the utility and operating contractor overhead staffs. It is concluded that the two methods provide bounding estimates on a range of manageable costs, and provide reasonable bases for the utility rate adjustments necessary to pay for future decommissioning costs. 6 refs

  5. 14 CFR 151.41 - Project costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Project costs. 151.41 Section 151.41... FEDERAL AID TO AIRPORTS Rules and Procedures for Airport Development Projects § 151.41 Project costs. (a) For the purposes of subparts B and C, project costs consist of any costs involved in accomplishing a...

  6. Estimating the cost to U.S. health departments to conduct HIV surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Ram K; Sansom, Stephanie L; Laffoon, Benjamin T; Farnham, Paul G; Shouse, R Luke; MacMaster, Karen; Hall, H Irene

    2014-01-01

    HIV case surveillance is a primary source of information for monitoring HIV burden in the United States and guiding the allocation of prevention and treatment funds. While the number of people living with HIV and the need for surveillance data have increased, little is known about the cost of surveillance. We estimated the economic cost to health departments of conducting high-quality HIV case surveillance. We collected primary data on the unit cost and quantity of resources used to operate the HIV case surveillance program in Michigan, where HIV burden (i.e., the number of HIV cases) is moderate to high (n=14,864 cases). Based on Michigan's data, we projected the expected annual HIV surveillance cost for U.S., state, local, and territorial health departments. We based our cost projection on the variation in the number of new and established cases, area-specific wages, and potential economies of scale. We estimated the annual total HIV surveillance cost to the Michigan health department to be $1,286,524 ($87/case), the annual total cost of new cases to be $108,657 ($133/case), and the annual total cost of established cases to be $1,177,867 ($84/case). Our projected median annual HIV surveillance cost per health department ranged from $210,600 in low-HIV burden sites to $1,835,000 in high-HIV burden sites. Our analysis shows that a systematic approach to costing HIV surveillance at the health department level is feasible. For HIV surveillance, a substantial portion of total surveillance costs is attributable to maintaining established cases.

  7. The Software Cost Estimation Method Based on Fuzzy Ontology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Plecka Przemysław

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In the course of sales process of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP Systems, it turns out that the standard system must be extended or changed (modified according to specific customer’s requirements. Therefore, suppliers face the problem of determining the cost of additional works. Most methods of cost estimation bring satisfactory results only at the stage of pre-implementation analysis. However, suppliers need to know the estimated cost as early as at the stage of trade talks. During contract negotiations, they expect not only the information about the costs of works, but also about the risk of exceeding these costs or about the margin of safety. One method that gives more accurate results at the stage of trade talks is the method based on the ontology of implementation costs. This paper proposes modification of the method involving the use of fuzzy attributes, classes, instances and relations in the ontology. The result provides not only the information about the value of work, but also about the minimum and maximum expected cost, and the most likely range of costs. This solution allows suppliers to effectively negotiate the contract and increase the chances of successful completion of the project.

  8. Equations for estimating stand establishment, release, and thinning costs in the Lake States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey T. Olson; Allen L. Lundgren; Dietmar Rose

    1978-01-01

    Equations for estimating project costs for certain silvicultural treatments in the Lake States have been developed from project records of public forests. Treatments include machine site preparation, hand planting, aerial spraying, prescribed burning, manual release, and thinning.

  9. Estimation of 18FDG doses's cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamza, Fatma; Amouri, W.; Jardak, I.; Kallel, F.; Charfeddine, S.; Guermazi, F.

    2013-01-01

    The cyclotron facility, essentially for medical use, is far from being a simple establishment of a dedicated device to accelerate particles producing a beta plus emitter radioelement. The cyclotron site encompasses more over all necessary equipments for the production and the quality control of considered radiotracer that 18 FDG is just one example. This facility is subject to strict standards in terms of radiopharmaceutical production, radiation level, pressure level and airflow resulting in the production of a drug submitted to the MA (Marketing Authorization). These multiple factors directly influence the final cost of the dose that remains to be reachable by the patient. The aim of this work is to estimate the cost of a dose of 18 FDG to ensure financial viability of the project while accessible to the patient. The cost of the facility will entail the following: buildings and utilities, equipment and operational cost. This calculation is possible only if we define in advance the type of cyclotron, which is bound to the market needs in particular the number of PET facilities, the number of scans per day and the radioactive decay of radioelement. Our study represents a simulation that considers some hypothesis. We assumed that the cyclotron is installed in Sousse and that the PET facilities number (positon emission tomography) is 6 in which 4 are located 2 hours away. For a PET scan, the average dose per patient is about 350 MBq (5 MBq/kg) and the exam duration is about 45 minutes. Each center performs 10 tests per day. In terms of fees, we considered device and building's cost, facility amortization, consumables (target, marking accessories), maintenance, remuneration expense and the annual electricity consumption. All our calculations have been reported to the number of working days per year. The estimates were made outside the customs duties and technical assistance that may last up to 2 years. Requirements and needs were estimated at 5.4 curies per day. For

  10. Reliance on and Reliability of the Engineer’s Estimate in Heavy Civil Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Okere, George

    2017-01-01

    To the contractor, the engineer’s estimate is the target number to aim for, and the basis for a contractor to evaluate the accuracy of their estimate. To the owner, the engineer’s estimate is the basis for funding, evaluation of bids, and for predicting project costs. As such the engineer’s estimate is the benchmark. This research sought to investigate the reliance on, and the reliability of the engineer’s estimate in heavy civil cost estimate. The research objective was to characterize the e...

  11. Carbon accounting and cost estimation in forestry projects using CO2Fix V.3

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groen, T.A.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Schelhaas, M.J.

    2006-01-01

    Carbon and financial accounting of projects in the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry sector is a topic of hot debate. Large uncertainty remains concerning the carbon dynamics, the way they should be accounted and the cost efficiency of the projects. Part of the uncertainty can be alleviated by

  12. Unit Price and Cost Estimation Equations through Items Percentage of Construction Works in a Desert Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kadhim Raheem

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This research will cover different aspects of estimating process of construction work in a desert area. The inherent difficulties which accompany the cost estimating of the construction works in desert environment in a developing country, will stem from the limited information available, resources scarcity, low level of skilled workers, the prevailing severe weather conditions and many others, which definitely don't provide a fair, reliable and accurate estimation. This study tries to present unit price to estimate the cost in preliminary phase of a project. Estimations are supported by developing mathematical equations based on the historical data of maintenance, new construction of managerial and school projects. Meanwhile, the research has determined the percentage of project items, in such a remote environment. Estimation equations suitable for remote areas have been formulated. Moreover, a procedure for unite price calculation is concluded.

  13. Analyzing Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk for Complex Product Systems R&D Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The vast majority of the research efforts in project risk management tend to assess cost risk and schedule risk independently. However, project cost and time are related in reality and the relationship between them should be analyzed directly. We propose an integrated cost and schedule risk assessment model for complex product systems R&D projects. Graphical evaluation review technique (GERT, Monte Carlo simulation, and probability distribution theory are utilized to establish the model. In addition, statistical analysis and regression analysis techniques are employed to analyze simulation outputs. Finally, a complex product systems R&D project as an example is modeled by the proposed approach and the simulation outputs are analyzed to illustrate the effectiveness of the risk assessment model. It seems that integrating cost and schedule risk assessment can provide more reliable risk estimation results.

  14. Implications of applying solar industry best practice resource estimation on project financing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pacudan, Romeo

    2016-01-01

    Solar resource estimation risk is one of the main solar PV project risks that influences lender’s decision in providing financing and in determining the cost of capital. More recently, a number of measures have emerged to mitigate this risk. The study focuses on solar industry’s best practice energy resource estimation and assesses its financing implications to the 27 MWp solar PV project study in Brunei Darussalam. The best practice in resource estimation uses multiple data sources through the measure-correlate-predict (MCP) technique as compared with the standard practice that rely solely on modelled data source. The best practice case generates resource data with lower uncertainty and yields superior high-confidence energy production estimate than the standard practice case. Using project financial parameters in Brunei Darussalam for project financing and adopting the international debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR) benchmark rates, the best practice case yields DSCRs that surpass the target rates while those of standard practice case stay below the reference rates. The best practice case could also accommodate higher debt share and have lower levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) while the standard practice case would require a lower debt share but having a higher LCOE. - Highlights: •Best practice solar energy resource estimation uses multiple datasets. •Multiple datasets are combined through measure-correlate-predict technique. •Correlated data have lower uncertainty and yields superior high-confidence energy production. •Best practice case yields debt-service coverage ratios (DSCRs) that surpass the benchmark rates. •Best practice case accommodates high debt share and have low levelized cost of electricity.

  15. Effort estimation for enterprise resource planning implementation projects using social choice - a comparative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Stefan; Mitlöhner, Johann

    2010-08-01

    ERP implementation projects have received enormous attention in the last years, due to their importance for organisations, as well as the costs and risks involved. The estimation of effort and costs associated with new projects therefore is an important topic. Unfortunately, there is still a lack of models that can cope with the special characteristics of these projects. As the main focus lies in adapting and customising a complex system, and even changing the organisation, traditional models like COCOMO can not easily be applied. In this article, we will apply effort estimation based on social choice in this context. Social choice deals with aggregating the preferences of a number of voters into a collective preference, and we will apply this idea by substituting the voters by project attributes. Therefore, instead of supplying numeric values for various project attributes, a new project only needs to be placed into rankings per attribute, necessitating only ordinal values, and the resulting aggregate ranking can be used to derive an estimation. We will describe the estimation process using a data set of 39 projects, and compare the results to other approaches proposed in the literature.

  16. Estimated cost of overactive bladder in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasopsanti, Kriangsak; Santi-Ngamkun, Apirak; Pornprasit, Kanokwan

    2007-11-01

    To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of overactive bladder (OAB) in indigenous Thai people aged 18 years and over in the year 2005. Economically based models using diagnostic and treatment algorithms from clinical practice guidelines and current disease prevalence data were used to estimate direct and indirect costs of OAB. Prevalence and event probability estimates were obtained from the literature, national data sets, and expert opinion. Costs were estimated from a small survey using a cost questionnaire and from unit costs of King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital. The annual cost of OAB in Thailand is estimated as 1.9 billion USD. It is estimated to consume 1.14% of national GDP The cost includes 0.33 billion USD for direct medical costs, 1.3 billion USD for direct, nonmedical costs and 0.29 billion USD for indirect costs of lost productivity. The largest costs category was direct treatment costs of comorbidities associated with OAB. Costs of OAB medication accountedfor 14% of the total costs ofOAB.

  17. Estimating the Costs of Preventive Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, E. Michael; Porter, Michele M.; Ayers, Tim S.; Kaplan, Debra L.; Sandler, Irwin

    2007-01-01

    The goal of this article is to improve the practice and reporting of cost estimates of prevention programs. It reviews the steps in estimating the costs of an intervention and the principles that should guide estimation. The authors then review prior efforts to estimate intervention costs using a sample of well-known but diverse studies. Finally,…

  18. On the Problem of Attribute Selection for Software Cost Estimation: Input Backward Elimination Using Artificial Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Papatheocharous , Efi; Andreou , Andreas S.

    2010-01-01

    International audience; Many parameters affect the cost evolution of software projects. In the area of software cost estimation and project management the main challenge is to understand and quantify the effect of these parameters, or 'cost drivers', on the effort expended to develop software systems. This paper aims at investigating the effect of cost attributes on software development effort using empirical databases of completed projects and building Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models ...

  19. Aircraft ground damage and the use of predictive models to estimate costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kromphardt, Benjamin D.

    Aircraft are frequently involved in ground damage incidents, and repair costs are often accepted as part of doing business. The Flight Safety Foundation (FSF) estimates ground damage to cost operators $5-10 billion annually. Incident reports, documents from manufacturers or regulatory agencies, and other resources were examined to better understand the problem of ground damage in aviation. Major contributing factors were explained, and two versions of a computer-based model were developed to project costs and show what is possible. One objective was to determine if the models could match the FSF's estimate. Another objective was to better understand cost savings that could be realized by efforts to further mitigate the occurrence of ground incidents. Model effectiveness was limited by access to official data, and assumptions were used if data was not available. However, the models were determined to sufficiently estimate the costs of ground incidents.

  20. Laser cost experience and estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shofner, F.M.; Hoglund, R.L.

    1977-01-01

    This report addresses the question of estimating the capital and operating costs for LIS (Laser Isotope Separation) lasers, which have performance requirements well beyond the state of mature art. This question is seen with different perspectives by political leaders, ERDA administrators, scientists, and engineers concerned with reducing LIS to economically successful commercial practice, on a timely basis. Accordingly, this report attempts to provide ''ballpark'' estimators for capital and operating costs and useful design and operating information for lasers based on mature technology, and their LIS analogs. It is written very basically and is intended to respond about equally to the perspectives of administrators, scientists, and engineers. Its major contributions are establishing the current, mature, industrialized laser track record (including capital and operating cost estimators, reliability, types of application, etc.) and, especially, evolution of generalized estimating procedures for capital and operating cost estimators for new laser design

  1. Capital and operating cost estimates for high temperature superconducting magnetic energy storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoenung, S.M.; Meier, W.R.; Fagaly, R.L.; Heiberger, M.; Stephens, R.B.; Leuer, J.A.; Guzman, R.A.

    1992-01-01

    Capital and operating costs have been estimated for mid-scale (2 to 200 Mwh) superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) designed to use high temperature superconductors (HTS). Capital costs are dominated by the cost of superconducting materials. Operating costs, primarily for regeneration, are significantly reduced for HTS-SMES in comparison to low temperature, conventional systems. This cost component is small compared to other O and M and capital components, when levelized annual costs are projected. In this paper, the developments required for HTS-SMES feasibility are discussed

  2. Construction cost estimation of spherical storage tanks: artificial neural networks and hybrid regression—GA algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arabzadeh, Vida; Niaki, S. T. A.; Arabzadeh, Vahid

    2017-10-01

    One of the most important processes in the early stages of construction projects is to estimate the cost involved. This process involves a wide range of uncertainties, which make it a challenging task. Because of unknown issues, using the experience of the experts or looking for similar cases are the conventional methods to deal with cost estimation. The current study presents data-driven methods for cost estimation based on the application of artificial neural network (ANN) and regression models. The learning algorithms of the ANN are the Levenberg-Marquardt and the Bayesian regulated. Moreover, regression models are hybridized with a genetic algorithm to obtain better estimates of the coefficients. The methods are applied in a real case, where the input parameters of the models are assigned based on the key issues involved in a spherical tank construction. The results reveal that while a high correlation between the estimated cost and the real cost exists; both ANNs could perform better than the hybridized regression models. In addition, the ANN with the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm (LMNN) obtains a better estimation than the ANN with the Bayesian-regulated learning algorithm (BRNN). The correlation between real data and estimated values is over 90%, while the mean square error is achieved around 0.4. The proposed LMNN model can be effective to reduce uncertainty and complexity in the early stages of the construction project.

  3. Estimating pressurized water reactor decommissioning costs: A user's manual for the PWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bierschbach, M.C.; Mencinsky, G.J.

    1993-10-01

    With the issuance of the Decommissioning Rule (July 27, 1988), nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the US Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review, decommissioning plans and cost estimates. This user's manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personnel computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning PWR plant stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning

  4. Cost-estimating relationships for space programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Cost-estimating relationships (CERs) are defined and discussed as they relate to the estimation of theoretical costs for space programs. The paper primarily addresses CERs based on analogous relationships between physical and performance parameters to estimate future costs. Analytical estimation principles are reviewed examining the sources of errors in cost models, and the use of CERs is shown to be affected by organizational culture. Two paradigms for cost estimation are set forth: (1) the Rand paradigm for single-culture single-system methods; and (2) the Price paradigms that incorporate a set of cultural variables. For space programs that are potentially subject to even small cultural changes, the Price paradigms are argued to be more effective. The derivation and use of accurate CERs is important for developing effective cost models to analyze the potential of a given space program.

  5. Cost-estimating for commercial digital printing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keif, Malcolm G.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to document current cost-estimating practices used in commercial digital printing. A research study was conducted to determine the use of cost-estimating in commercial digital printing companies. This study answers the questions: 1) What methods are currently being used to estimate digital printing? 2) What is the relationship between estimating and pricing digital printing? 3) To what extent, if at all, do digital printers use full-absorption, all-inclusive hourly rates for estimating? Three different digital printing models were identified: 1) Traditional print providers, who supplement their offset presswork with digital printing for short-run color and versioned commercial print; 2) "Low-touch" print providers, who leverage the power of the Internet to streamline business transactions with digital storefronts; 3) Marketing solutions providers, who see printing less as a discrete manufacturing process and more as a component of a complete marketing campaign. Each model approaches estimating differently. Understanding and predicting costs can be extremely beneficial. Establishing a reliable system to estimate those costs can be somewhat challenging though. Unquestionably, cost-estimating digital printing will increase in relevance in the years ahead, as margins tighten and cost knowledge becomes increasingly more critical.

  6. ESTIMATION OF LONG-TERM INVESTMENT PROJECTS WITH ENERGY-EFFICIENT SOLUTIONS BASED ON LIFE CYCLE COSTS INDICATOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bazhenov Viktor Ivanovich

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The starting stage of the tender procedures in Russia with the participation of foreign suppliers dictates the feasibility of the developments for economical methods directed to comparison of technical solutions on the construction field. The article describes the example of practical Life Cycle Cost (LCC evaluations under respect of Present Value (PV determination. These create a possibility for investor to estimate long-term projects (indicated as 25 years as commercially profitable, taking into account inflation rate, interest rate, real discount rate (indicated as 5 %. For economic analysis air-blower station of WWTP was selected as a significant energy consumer. Technical variants for the comparison of blower types are: 1 - multistage without control, 2 - multistage with VFD control, 3 - single stage double vane control. The result of LCC estimation shows the last variant as most attractive or cost-effective for investments with economy of 17,2 % (variant 1 and 21,0 % (variant 2 under adopted duty conditions and evaluations of capital costs (Cic + Cin with annual expenditure related (Ce+Co+Cm. The adopted duty conditions include daily and seasonal fluctuations of air flow. This was the reason for the adopted energy consumption as, kW∙h: 2158 (variant 1,1743...2201 (variant 2, 1058...1951 (variant 3. The article refers to Europump guide tables in order to simplify sophisticated factors search (Cp /Cn, df, which can be useful for economical analyses in Russia. Example of evaluations connected with energy-efficient solutions is given, but this reference involves the use of materials for the cases with resource savings, such as all types of fuel. In conclusion follows the assent to use LCC indicator jointly with the method of determining discounted cash flows, that will satisfy the investor’s need for interest source due to technical and economical comparisons.

  7. Computational Intelligence in Software Cost Estimation: Evolving Conditional Sets of Effort Value Ranges

    OpenAIRE

    Papatheocharous, Efi; Andreou, Andreas S.

    2008-01-01

    In this approach we aimed at addressing the problem of large variances found in available historical data that are used in software cost estimation. Project data is expensive to collect, manage and maintain. Therefore, if we wish to lower the dependence of the estimation to

  8. Cost/CYP: a bottom line that helps keep CSM projects cost-efficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-01-01

    In contraceptive social marketing (CSM), the objective is social good, but project managers also need to run a tight ship, trimming costs, allocating scarce funds, and monitoring their program's progress. 1 way CSM managers remain cost-conscious is through the concept of couple-years-of-protection (CYP). Devised 2 decades ago as an administrative tool to compare the effects of different contraceptive methods, CYP's uses have multiplied to include assessing program output and cost effectiveness. Some of the factors affecting cost/CYP are a project's age, sales volume, management efficiency, and product prices and line. These factors are interconnected. The cost/CYP figures given here do not include outlays for commodities. While the Agency for International Development's commodity costs alter slightly with each new purchase contrast, the agency reports that a condom costs about 4 cents (US), an oral contraceptive (OC) cycle about 12 cents, and a spermicidal tablet about 7 cents. CSM projects have relatively high start-up costs. Within a project's first 2 years, expenses must cover such marketing activities as research, packaging, warehousing, and heavy promotion. As a project ages, sales should grow, producing revenues that gradually amortize these initial costs. The Nepal CSM project provides an example of how cost/CYP can improve as a program ages. In 1978, the year sales began, the project's cost/CYP was about $84. For some time the project struggled to get its products to its target market and gradually overcome several major hurdles. The acquisition of jeeps eased distribution and, by adding another condom brand, sales were increased still more, bringing the cost/CYP down to $8.30 in 1981. With further sales increases and resulting revenues, the cost/CYP dropped to just over $7 in 1983. When the sales volume becomes large enough, CSM projects can achieve economies of scale, which greatly improves cost-efficiency. Fixed costs shrink as a proportion of total

  9. Research on the Investment Costs of IT Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zurong, Chen; Feng, Jingchun

    2018-02-01

    The investment costs of IT project are the basis of IT project management. The meaning and composition of the investment costs of IT project were analyzed in this paper, which involving the engineering cost of IT project, the other costs of IT project, reserve cost and financing interest of the construction period. On this basis, the composition and content of static investment costs and dynamic investment costs of IT project were also studied in the paper.

  10. Estimating the cost of delivering direct nutrition interventions at scale: national and subnational level insights from India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menon, Purnima; McDonald, Christine M; Chakrabarti, Suman

    2016-05-01

    India's national nutrition and health programmes are largely designed to provide evidence-based nutrition-specific interventions, but intervention coverage is low due to a combination of implementation challenges, capacity and financing gaps. Global cost estimates for nutrition are available but national and subnational costs are not. We estimated national and subnational costs of delivering recommended nutrition-specific interventions using the Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) costing approach. We compared costs of delivering the SUN interventions at 100% scale with those of nationally recommended interventions. Target populations (TP) for interventions were estimated using national population and nutrition data. Unit costs (UC) were derived from programmatic data. The cost of delivering an intervention at 100% coverage was calculated as (UC*projected TP). Cost estimates varied; estimates for SUN interventions were lower than estimates for nationally recommended interventions because of differences in choice of intervention, target group or unit cost. US$5.9bn/year are required to deliver a set of nationally recommended nutrition interventions at scale in India, while US$4.2bn are required for the SUN interventions. Cash transfers (49%) and food supplements (40%) contribute most to costs of nationally recommended interventions, while food supplements to prevent and treat malnutrition contribute most to the SUN costs. We conclude that although such costing is useful to generate broad estimates, there is an urgent need for further costing studies on the true unit costs of the delivery of nutrition-specific interventions in different local contexts to be able to project accurate national and subnational budgets for nutrition in India. © 2016 The Authors. Maternal & Child Nutrition published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. A quantitative analysis of the cost-effectiveness of project types in the CDM pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Green, Gavin A.

    2008-09-15

    The flexibility of the CDM is intended to reduce the cost of compliance for Annex 1 countries and contribute to cost-effective reductions. This paper provides a framework for defining cost-effective payments for CDM carbon reductions. The projects in the CDM pipeline are categorised into project types. The data provided in the Project Design Documents is quantitatively assessed to calculate the median cost and range of costs for producing a CER from the project categories. These are measured against the range of prices in the market in order to estimate the level of cost-effectiveness. Global warming potential and size of the project were shown to be key factors in the cost of producing a CER. The results show that although prices for CERs are difficult to define in the primary CER market, many of the project categories generated CERs at a cost well below the lowest market price. The difference in these two values is defined as a loss in cost-effectiveness. The CDM is shown to be successful at developing the 'lowest hanging fruit' but the mechanism could be improved to fulfil the goal of cost-effectiveness by linking the price per CER to the cost of generating a CER. (au)

  12. A Deterministic and Probabilistic Cost Estimate for Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Gag Kyeon; Kwon, Jong Jooh

    2005-01-01

    There are many cost estimate methodologies for some future projects. Revenue Requirement Method (RRM), Cost/Benefit Ratio method, Return on Investment, Pay Back Period Method. etc. This paper uses the RRM method which is the amount of revenue that must be collected from customers to compensate a utility for all expenditures associated with implementing an alternative decision involving money. This RRM can be combined with a random sampling statistical simulation computer program to calculated the Probability Distribution Functions(PDF) of the cost elements for generating cost. EPRI developed this combined statistical techniques into RRM, named Statistical Revenue Requirement Method(SRRM). The statistical technique is a random sampling statistical simulation. The simulation tool is usually Monte Carlo sampling, Latin Latin Hypercube sampling, etc. SRRM is used to estimating for future power plants, apartments, hospital, marketing, etc. In this paper, RRM calculation and SRRM simulation have been practiced for PWR1400MWe nuclear power plants

  13. Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen, Dimity Maree; Barnett, Adrian Gerard

    2017-12-11

    The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected. We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies. We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay. Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000 million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario. We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016-2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models' potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370.

  14. Software cost estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heemstra, F.J.

    1992-01-01

    The paper gives an overview of the state of the art of software cost estimation (SCE). The main questions to be answered in the paper are: (1) What are the reasons for overruns of budgets and planned durations? (2) What are the prerequisites for estimating? (3) How can software development effort be

  15. Software cost estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heemstra, F.J.; Heemstra, F.J.

    1993-01-01

    The paper gives an overview of the state of the art of software cost estimation (SCE). The main questions to be answered in the paper are: (1) What are the reasons for overruns of budgets and planned durations? (2) What are the prerequisites for estimating? (3) How can software development effort be

  16. Computerized cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base for fusion devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, W.R.; Rothe, K.E.

    1985-01-01

    An automated approach to performing and cataloging cost estimates has been developed at the Fusion Engineering Design Center (FEDC), wherein the cost estimate record is stored in the LOTUS 1-2-3 spreadsheet on an IBM personal computer. The cost estimation spreadsheet is based on the cost coefficient/cost algorithm approach and incorporates a detailed generic code of cost accounts for both tokamak and tandem mirror devices. Component design parameters (weight, surface area, etc.) and cost factors are input, and direct and indirect costs are calculated. The cost data base file derived from actual cost experience within the fusion community and refined to be compatible with the spreadsheet costing approach is a catalog of cost coefficients, algorithms, and component costs arranged into data modules corresponding to specific components and/or subsystems. Each data module contains engineering, equipment, and installation labor cost data for different configurations and types of the specific component or subsystem. This paper describes the assumptions, definitions, methodology, and architecture incorporated in the development of the cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base, along with the type of input required and the output format

  17. Cost estimates and economic evaluations for conceptual LLRW disposal facility designs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baird, R.D.; Chau, N. [Rogers & Associates Engineering Corp., Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Breeds, C.D. [SubTerra, Inc., Redmond, WA (United States)

    1995-12-31

    Total life-cycle costs were estimated in support of the New York LLRW Siting Commission`s project to select a disposal method from four near-surface LLRW disposal methods (namely, uncovered above-grade vaults, covered above-grade vaults, below-grade vaults, and augered holes) and two mined methods (namely, vertical shaft mines and drift mines). Conceptual designs for the disposal methods were prepared and used as the basis for the cost estimates. Typical economic performance of each disposal method was assessed. Life-cycle costs expressed in 1994 dollars ranged from $ 1,100 million (for below-grade vaults and both mined disposal methods) to $2,000 million (for augered holes). Present values ranged from $620 million (for below-grade vaults) to $ 1,100 million (for augered holes).

  18. Preliminary estimate of the costs involved in the implantation of a low and medium level radioactive waste repository in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Branco, Otavio E.A.; Carvalho Filho, Carlos A.; Ferreira, Vinicius V.M.; Alves, Paulo R.R.

    2009-01-01

    One relevant subject in the decision making process linked to the implantation of a low and intermediate level waste (LILW) repository in Brazil is regarding to the project expected costs. It is important to estimate in a solid way the total and partial costs expected, considering each one of the enterprise implantation phases. This work shows an initial estimative of these costs, based on reports and papers that evaluate the implantation, operation, closure and post closure costs of radioactive LILW waste repositories. In the development of this research only the costs regarding to near surface repositories, or similar ones, were considered. The total cost was estimated as approximately 115 million dollars, considering the whole project lifetime as 300 years. Considering the repository start-up costs (site selection, licensing, project and construction), the total value is estimated as 48 million dollars (1600 dollars/m 3 ). It is important to emphasize that some cares should be taken when costs obtained from the acquired experience by another countries in the repositories development are analyzed. As example, the costs for disposal 1 m 3 of low and medium level radioactive waste vary significantly from one country to another, even when repositories with similar projects are compared. Also the total costs of construction and licensing are significantly higher when compared those ones from 'conventional' facilities with similar technological characteristics. Finally, although about a dozen low and medium level radioactive waste repository are operating in Europe, new projects should be faced, as the international practice demonstrate, as original developments. (author)

  19. A Prediction on the Unit Cost Estimation for Decommissioning Activities Using the Experienced Data from DECOMMIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Seung Kook; Park, Hee Seong; Choi, Yoon Dong; Song, Chan Ho; Moon, Jei Kwon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    The KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) has developed the DECOMMIS (Decommissioning Information Management System) and have been applied for the decommissioning project of the KRR (Korea Research Reactor)-1 and 2 and UCP (Uranium Conversion Plant), as the meaning of the first decommissioning project in Korea. All information and data which are from the decommissioning activities are input, saved, output and managed in the DECOMMIS. This system was consists of the web server and the database server. The users could be access through a web page, depending on the input, processing and output, and be modified the permissions to do such activities can after the decommissioning activities have created the initial system-wide data is stored. When it could be used the experienced data from DECOMMIS, the cost estimation on the new facilities for the decommissioning planning will be established with the basic frame of the WBS structures and its codes. In this paper, the prediction on the cost estimation through using the experienced data which were store in DECOMMIS was studied. For the new decommissioning project on the nuclear facilities in the future, through this paper, the cost estimation for the decommissioning using the experienced data which were WBS codes, unit-work productivity factors and annual governmental unit labor cost is proposed. These data were from the KRR and UCP decommissioning project. The differences on the WBS code sectors and facility characterization between new objected components and experienced dismantled components was reduces as scaling factors. The study on the establishment the scaling factors and cost prediction for the cost estimation is developing with the algorithms from the productivity data, now.

  20. EPR project construction cost control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duflo, D.; Pouget-Abadie, X.; Dufour, A.; Kauffmann, G.

    2001-01-01

    The EPR project is now managed by EDF in cooperation with the German Utilities. The main engineering activities for this period are related to the preparation of construction project management, deepening of some safety issues, definition of the project technical reference. The EPR project concerns the so-called reference unit, that is an isolated first-off unit, with unit electrical power of about 1500 MW. The construction costs evaluated are those of the nuclear island, the conventional island, site facilities, installation work and the administrative buildings. The EPR project construction cost evaluation method applies to all the equipment installed and commissioned. It requires the availability of a preliminary project detailed enough to identify the bill of quantities. To these quantities are then assigned updated unit prices that are based either on cost bases for similar and recent facilities or taken from request for quotation for similar equipment or result from gains due to contractual conditions benefiting from simplifications in the functional and technical specifications. The input and output data are managed in a model that respects the breakdown on which the evaluation method is based. The structural organization of this method reflects a functional breakdown on the one hand (nuclear island, conventional island, common site elements) and on the other hand a breakdown according to equipment or activity (civil engineering, mechanics, electricity, instrumentation and control). This paper discusses the principle and the method of construction cost evaluation carried out, the cost data base and input and output parameters as well as results and oncoming cost analysis tasks. (author)

  1. Cost estimation model for advanced planetary programs, fourth edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spadoni, D. J.

    1983-01-01

    The development of the planetary program cost model is discussed. The Model was updated to incorporate cost data from the most recent US planetary flight projects and extensively revised to more accurately capture the information in the historical cost data base. This data base is comprised of the historical cost data for 13 unmanned lunar and planetary flight programs. The revision was made with a two fold objective: to increase the flexibility of the model in its ability to deal with the broad scope of scenarios under consideration for future missions, and to maintain and possibly improve upon the confidence in the model's capabilities with an expected accuracy of 20%. The Model development included a labor/cost proxy analysis, selection of the functional forms of the estimating relationships, and test statistics. An analysis of the Model is discussed and two sample applications of the cost model are presented.

  2. Key Aspects of the Federal Direct Loan Program's Cost Estimates: Department of Education. Report to Congressional Requesters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calbom, Linda M.; Ashby, Cornelia M.

    Because of concerns about the Department of Education's reliance on estimates to project costs of the William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan Program (FDLP) and a lack of historical information on which to base those estimates, Congress asked the General Accounting Office (GAO) to review how the department develops its cost estimates for the program,…

  3. Parametric cost estimation for space science missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lillie, Charles F.; Thompson, Bruce E.

    2008-07-01

    Cost estimation for space science missions is critically important in budgeting for successful missions. The process requires consideration of a number of parameters, where many of the values are only known to a limited accuracy. The results of cost estimation are not perfect, but must be calculated and compared with the estimates that the government uses for budgeting purposes. Uncertainties in the input parameters result from evolving requirements for missions that are typically the "first of a kind" with "state-of-the-art" instruments and new spacecraft and payload technologies that make it difficult to base estimates on the cost histories of previous missions. Even the cost of heritage avionics is uncertain due to parts obsolescence and the resulting redesign work. Through experience and use of industry best practices developed in participation with the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), Northrop Grumman has developed a parametric modeling approach that can provide a reasonably accurate cost range and most probable cost for future space missions. During the initial mission phases, the approach uses mass- and powerbased cost estimating relationships (CER)'s developed with historical data from previous missions. In later mission phases, when the mission requirements are better defined, these estimates are updated with vendor's bids and "bottoms- up", "grass-roots" material and labor cost estimates based on detailed schedules and assigned tasks. In this paper we describe how we develop our CER's for parametric cost estimation and how they can be applied to estimate the costs for future space science missions like those presented to the Astronomy & Astrophysics Decadal Survey Study Committees.

  4. Food irradiation : estimates of cost of processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krishnamurthy, K.; Bongirwar, D.R.

    1987-01-01

    For estimating the cost of food irradiation, three factors have to be taken into consideration. These are : (1) capital cost incurred on irradiation device and its installation, (2) recurring or running cost which includes maintenance cost and operational expenditure, and (3) product specific cost dependent on the factors specific to the food item to be processed, its storage, handling and distribution. A simple method is proposed to provide estimates of capital costs and running costs and it is applied to prepare a detailed estimate of costs for irradiation processing of onions and fish in India. The cost of processing onions worked out to be between Rs. 40 to 120 per 1000 Kg and for fish Rs 354 per 1000 Kg. These estimates do not take into account transparation costs and fluctuations in marketing procedures. (M.G.B.). 7 tables

  5. Wideband DOA Estimation through Projection Matrix Interpolation

    OpenAIRE

    Selva, J.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a method to reduce the complexity of the deterministic maximum likelihood (DML) estimator in the wideband direction-of-arrival (WDOA) problem, which is based on interpolating the array projection matrix in the temporal frequency variable. It is shown that an accurate interpolator like Chebyshev's is able to produce DML cost functions comprising just a few narrowband-like summands. Actually, the number of such summands is far smaller (roughly by factor ten in the numerical ...

  6. Carbon Accounting and Cost Estimation in Forestry Projects Using CO2Fix V.3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groen, T.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Schelhaas, M.J.

    2006-01-01

    Carbon and financial accounting of projects in the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry sector is a topic of hot debate. Large uncertainty remains concerning the carbon dynamics, the way they should be accounted and the cost efficiency of the projects. Part of the uncertainty can be alleviated by standardisation and transparency of reporting methods. For this reason we further developed CO2FIX, a forest ecosystem carbon model, with modules for carbon and financial accounting. The model is applied to four cases: (1) Joint implementation afforestation project in Romania, (2) Forest management project in Central Europe, (3) Reduced impact logging possibly under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in the future, and (4) Afforestation with native species under the Clean Development Mechanism. The results show the wide applicability of CO2FIX, from degrading grasslands as baseline cases to multiple cohort forest ecosystems. Also the results show that Forest Management in the European case can generate considerable amounts of carbon emission reductions. Further, the results show that although reduced impact logging is not yet an allowed option under the Clean Development Mechanism, it shows promising results in that it is (1) very cost effective, (2) seems to be able to generate intermediate amounts of credits and (3) seems to us as a project type that is not prone to leakage issues. These results are yet another indication to seriously consider reduced impact logging as an eligible measure under the CDM

  7. ICPP tank farm closure study. Volume III: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-02-01

    This volume contains information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the six options described in Volume 1, Section 2: Option 1 -- Total removal clean closure; No subsequent use; Option 2 -- Risk-based clean closure; LLW fill; Option 3 -- Risk-based clean closure; CERCLA fill; Option 4 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; LLW fill; Option 5 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; CERCLA fill; and Option 6 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; Clean fill. This volume is divided into two portions. The first portion contains the cost and planning schedule estimates while the second portion contains life-cycle costs and yearly cash flow information for each option

  8. Estimating the cost of a smoking employee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Micah; Crane, Rob; Seiber, Eric; Munur, Mehmet

    2014-09-01

    We attempted to estimate the excess annual costs that a US private employer may attribute to employing an individual who smokes tobacco as compared to a non-smoking employee. Reviewing and synthesising previous literature estimating certain discrete costs associated with smoking employees, we developed a cost estimation approach that approximates the total of such costs for U.S. employers. We examined absenteeism, presenteesim, smoking breaks, healthcare costs and pension benefits for smokers. Our best estimate of the annual excess cost to employ a smoker is $5816. This estimate should be taken as a general indicator of the extent of excess costs, not as a predictive point value. Employees who smoke impose significant excess costs on private employers. The results of this study may help inform employer decisions about tobacco-related policies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  9. Methods of projecting operations and maintenance costs for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    Operations and maintenance cost (OMC) had increased its relative importance to the total generation cost for future nuclear power stations, according to the latest update of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) study on Projected Costs of Generating Electricity (EGC studies). OMC is some 20 to 30% of total generation cost for future nuclear power stations in most NEA member countries. However, nuclear OMC that countries projected in the latest EGC study are spread over a wide range, from 5 to 16 US mills/kWh. In order to understand better the reasons for this wide diversity in nuclear OMC projections, the NEA set up an Expert Group. The focus of this study was on projected OMC that were reported in the past EGC studies, but the Group studied actual OMC experienced from existing units, because knowledge or experience concerning actual OMC certainly influences the choice of assumptions or calculation procedure for estimating OMC for future plants. Cost informations from 14 NEA countries have been analysed on the basis of a standardized framework of detailed components of OMC costs. The rationale for different OMC cost projections reported in previous NEA studies on generation cost is discussed and suggestions are made for future studies on both generation cost and OMC cost. Despite the methodological approach and the reduced extent of differences when excluding exceptional figures, it was not possible fully to clarify the origins and to understand the remaining differences in OMC figures. Several countries which have a long and a good experience of operating nuclear units did not provide sufficient detailed data or did not provide any quantitative data at all. (J.S.). 14 refs., 5 figs., 19 tabs., 4 annexes

  10. ETE-EVAL: a methodology for D and D cost estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decobert, G.; Robic, S.; Vanel, V.

    2008-01-01

    In compliance with Article 20 of the sustainable radioactive materials and waste management act dated 28 June 2006, the CEA and AREVA are required every three years to revise the cost of decommissioning their facilities and to provide the necessary assets by constituting a dedicated fund. For the 2007 revision the CEA used ETE-EVAL V5. Similarly, AREVA reevaluated the cost of decontaminating and dismantling its facilities at La Hague, as the previous estimate in 2004 did not take into account the complete cleanup of all the structural work. ETE-EVAL V5 is a computer application designed to estimate the cost of decontamination and dismantling of basic nuclear installations (INB). It has been qualified by Bureau Veritas and audited. ETE-EVAL V5 has become the official software for cost assessment of CEA civilian and AREVA decommissioning projects. It has been used by the DPAD (Decontamination and Dismantling Projects Department) cost assessment group to estimate the cost of decommissioning some thirty facilities (cost update on completion for the dedicated fund for dismantling civilian CEA facilities) and by AREVA to estimate the cost of decommissioning its fuel cycle back-end facilities. Some necessary modifications are now being implemented to allow for the specific aspects of fuel cycle front-end facilities. The computational method is based on physical, radiological and waste inventories following a particular methodology, and on interviews with operating personnel to compile ratios and financial data (operating cost, etc.) and enter them in a database called GREEN (from the French acronym for Management Ratios for Assessment of Nuclear Facilities). ETE-EVAL V5 comprises the cost assessment module and GREEN database. It has been enriched with the lessons learned from experience, and can be adapted as necessary to meet installation-specific requirements. The cost assessment module allows the user to estimate decommissioning costs once the inventory has been

  11. 32 CFR 37.560 - Must I be able to estimate project expenditures precisely in order to justify use of a fixed...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Must I be able to estimate project expenditures... I be able to estimate project expenditures precisely in order to justify use of a fixed-support TIA... purposes of this illustration, let that minimum recipient cost sharing be 40% of the total project costs...

  12. Cost Estimates for the Decontamination and Decommissioning of Eight ORNL Buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogan, M.

    2006-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) contains a number of buildings that are antiquated and no longer used. These buildings historically were used for the production of atomic weapons and often remain contaminated with radioactive materials. Certain costs and risks are associated with the long-term stewardship of the buildings. One way to reduce these liabilities is to eliminate the buildings that are no longer in use and are not expected to be used in the future. Some of these buildings at ORNL are located in an area known as 'Isotope Circle'. From this area, eight buildings that are expected to be decontaminated and decommissioned (D and D) in the next five to ten years were chosen to have cost estimates completed. The specific facilities are Buildings 3030, 3031, 3118, 3032, 3033, 3033 Annex, 3034, and 3093. There are many challenges for estimating the costs to D and D buildings potentially contaminated with radionuclides. Each building is unique, has various types and levels of contamination, and (as in this case) often lacks up-to-date information. Because of these limitations, order-of- magnitude cost estimates for each of the eight ORNL buildings were completed using parametric cost modeling software known as RACER TM (Remedial Action Cost Engineering and Requirements System). This type of cost estimate is useful for screening technical concepts and is used for budgetary planning. For the eight buildings evaluated in this study, the total cost to D and D was estimated to be nearly $6 M. This value includes the direct cost of approximately $3.5 M to complete D and D and $2.5 M in cost markups. Also, assuming the actual project does not begin until the year 2010, this total cost is escalated to almost $6.7 M, which accounts for expected inflation. Although the cost estimates in this study were expected to have a wide range in accuracy, there are various factors that could impact these estimates in a negative or positive fashion

  13. Population-based cost-offset estimation for the treatment of borderline personality disorder: projected costs in a currently running, ideal health system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wunsch, Eva-Maria; Kliem, Sören; Kröger, Christoph

    2014-09-01

    Borderline personality disorder (BPD) is considered one of the most expensive mental disorders in terms of direct and indirect costs. The aim of this study was to carry out a cost-offset estimation of disorder-specific psychotherapy for BPD at the population level. The study investigated whether the possible financial benefits of dialectical behavior therapy outweigh the therapy costs, assuming a currently running, ideal health system, and whether the estimated cost-benefit relationships change depending upon the number of patients willing to be treated. A formula was elaborated that allows the user to calculate cost-benefit relationships for various conservative or progressive scenarios, with different stages of individuals' willingness to be treated (10%-90%). The possible costs and benefits of BPD-related treatment were evaluated using a 12-month, prevalence-based approach. The annual costs for untreated BPD were 8.69 billion EUR annually. The cost-benefit relationship for the treatment remained constant at 1.52 for all scenarios, implying that for each EUR invested, 1.52 EUR can be gained within one year, independent of the willingness to be treated. Additional intangible benefits were calculated with the aid of Quality-Adjusted Life Years. Findings suggest that BPD-related treatment might well be efficient at the population level. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. The relationship between cost estimates reliability and BIM adoption: SEM analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, N. A. A.; Idris, N. H.; Ramli, H.; Rooshdi, R. R. Raja Muhammad; Sahamir, S. R.

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents the usage of Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) approach in analysing the effects of Building Information Modelling (BIM) technology adoption in improving the reliability of cost estimates. Based on the questionnaire survey results, SEM analysis using SPSS-AMOS application examined the relationships between BIM-improved information and cost estimates reliability factors, leading to BIM technology adoption. Six hypotheses were established prior to SEM analysis employing two types of SEM models, namely the Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) model and full structural model. The SEM models were then validated through the assessment on their uni-dimensionality, validity, reliability, and fitness index, in line with the hypotheses tested. The final SEM model fit measures are: P-value=0.000, RMSEA=0.0790.90, TLI=0.956>0.90, NFI=0.935>0.90 and ChiSq/df=2.259; indicating that the overall index values achieved the required level of model fitness. The model supports all the hypotheses evaluated, confirming that all relationship exists amongst the constructs are positive and significant. Ultimately, the analysis verified that most of the respondents foresee better understanding of project input information through BIM visualization, its reliable database and coordinated data, in developing more reliable cost estimates. They also perceive to accelerate their cost estimating task through BIM adoption.

  15. Carbon accounting and cost estimation in forestry projects using CO2Fix V.3

    OpenAIRE

    Groen, T.A.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Schelhaas, M.J.

    2006-01-01

    Carbon and financial accounting of projects in the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry sector is a topic of hot debate. Large uncertainty remains concerning the carbon dynamics, the way they should be accounted and the cost efficiency of the projects. Part of the uncertainty can be alleviated by standardisation and transparency of reporting methods. For this reason we further developed CO2FIX, a forest ecosystem carbon model, with modules for carbon and financial accounting. The model is a...

  16. Stochastic cost estimating in repository life-cycle cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tzemos, S.; Dippold, D.

    1986-01-01

    The conceptual development, the design, and the final construction and operation of a nuclear repository span many decades. Given this lengthy time frame, it is quite challenging to obtain a good approximation of the repository life-cycle cost. One can deal with this challenge by using an analytic method, the method of moments, to explicitly assess the uncertainty of the estimate. A series expansion is used to approximate the uncertainty distribution of the cost estimate. In this paper, the moment methodology is derived and is illustrated through a numerical example. The range of validity of the approximation is discussed. The method of moments is compared to the traditional stochastic cost estimating methods and found to provide more and better information on cost uncertainty. The tow methods converge to identical results as the number of convolved variables increases and approaches the range where the central limit theorem is valid

  17. Towards Greater Harmonisation of Decommissioning Cost Estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Sullivan, Patrick; ); Laraia, Michele; ); LaGuardia, Thomas S.

    2010-01-01

    The NEA Decommissioning Cost Estimation Group (DCEG), in collaboration with the IAEA Waste Technology Section and the EC Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, has recently studied cost estimation practices in 12 countries - Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. Its findings are to be published in an OECD/NEA report entitled Cost Estimation for Decommissioning: An International Overview of Cost Elements, Estimation Practices and Reporting Requirements. This booklet highlights the findings contained in the full report. (authors)

  18. Trojan Decommissioning Project Cost Performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michael B. Lackey

    2000-01-01

    The Trojan nuclear plant (Trojan) was an 1160-MW(electric) four-loop pressurized water reactor located in Rainier, Oregon. The plant was permanently shut down in 1993 after ∼17 yr of commercial operation. The early plant closure was an economic decision. The key factors in the closure analysis were escalation of inspection and repair costs associated with steam generator tube cracking and the projected availability of inexpensive replacement power in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. Since the plant closure, Portland General Electric (PGE) has been actively engaged in decommissioning. The Trojan Decommissioning Project currently has a forecast at completion of $429.7 million (all costs are in millions of 1997 dollars, unless otherwise noted). The cost performance of the Trojan Decommissioning Project to date is addressed, as well as the tools that are in place to provide cost control through completion of decommissioning

  19. 10 CFR 611.102 - Eligible project costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Accounting Principles and these costs may be considered by DOE in determining the Borrower's contribution to... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Eligible project costs. 611.102 Section 611.102 Energy... PROGRAM Direct Loan Program § 611.102 Eligible project costs. (a) Eligible costs are: (1) Those costs that...

  20. Preliminary cost estimating for the nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klumpar, I.V.; Soltz, K.M.

    1985-01-01

    The nuclear industry has higher costs for personnel, equipment, construction, and engineering than conventional industry, which means that cost estimation procedures may need adjustment. The authors account for the special technical and labor requirements of the nuclear industry in making adjustments to equipment and installation cost estimations. Using illustrative examples, they show that conventional methods of preliminary cost estimation are flexible enough for application to emerging industries if their cost structure is similar to that of the process industries. If not, modifications can provide enough engineering and cost data for a statistical analysis. 9 references, 14 figures, 4 tables

  1. Software Cost-Estimation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tausworthe, R. C.

    1985-01-01

    Software Cost Estimation Model SOFTCOST provides automated resource and schedule model for software development. Combines several cost models found in open literature into one comprehensive set of algorithms. Compensates for nearly fifty implementation factors relative to size of task, inherited baseline, organizational and system environment and difficulty of task.

  2. OPTIMIZATION OF TIMES AND COSTS OF PROJECT OF HORIZONTAL LAMINATOR PRODUCTION USING PERT/CPM TECHNICAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Henrique Lermen

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The PERT/CPM is a technique widely used in both the scheduling and in the project feasibility in terms of cost control and time.  In order to optimize time and costs involved in production, the work presented here aims to apply the PERT/CPM technique in the production project of the Horizontal Laminator, a machine used to cut polyurethane foam blocks in the mattresses industries. For the application of PERT/CPM technique in the project of Horizontal Laminator production were identified the activities that compose the project, the dependence between them, the normal and accelerated durations and the normal and accelerated costs. In this study, deterministic estimates for the duration of the activities were considered. The results show that the project can be completed in 520 hours at a total cost of R$7,042.50, when all activities are performed in their normal durations.  When all the activities that compose the critical path are accelerated, the project can be completed in 333.3 hours at a total cost of R$9,263.01. If the activities slacks have been exploited, it can obtain a final total cost of R$6,157.8, without changing the new duration of the project. It is noteworthy that the final total cost of the project if the slacks are used, will be lower than the initial cost. Regarding the initial cost of the project, after the application of the PERT/CPM technique, it presents a decrease of 12.56% of the total project cost.

  3. Development of geological disposal system; localization of element cost data and cost evaluation on the HLW repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Byung Sik; Kim, Kil Jung; Yang, Young Jin; Kim, Sung Chun [KOPEC, Taejeon (Korea)

    2002-03-01

    To estimate Total Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) for Korea HLW Repository through localization of element cost data, we review and re-organize each basic element cost data for reference repository system, localize various element cost and finally estimate TSLCC considering economic parameters. As results of the study, TSLCC is estimated as 17,167,689 million won, which includes costs for site preparation, surface facilities, underground facilities and management/integration. Since HLW repository Project is an early stage of pre-conceptual design at present, the information of design and project information are not enough to perform cost estimate and cost localization for the Project. However, project cost structure is re-organized based on the local condition and Total System Life Cycle Cost is estimated using the previous cost data gathered from construction experience of the local nuclear power plant. Project results can be used as basic reference data to assume total construction cost for the local HLW repository and should be revised to more reliable cost data with incorporating detail project design information into the cost estimate in a future. 20 refs. (Author)

  4. Procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lukey, M.E.; Prasad, C.; Toothman, D.A.; Kaplan, N.

    1999-07-01

    Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use permanent total enclosures (PTEs). By definition, an enclosure which meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's five-point criteria is a PTE and has a capture efficiency of 100%. Since costs play an important role in regulatory development, in selection of control equipment, and in control technology evaluations for permitting purposes, EPA has developed a Control Cost Manual for estimating costs of various items of control equipment. EPA's Manual does not contain any methodology for estimating PTE costs. In order to assist environmental regulators and potential users of PTEs, a methodology for estimating PTE costs was developed under contract with EPA, by Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. (PES) and is the subject of this paper. The methodology for estimating PTE costs follows the approach used for other control devices in the Manual. It includes procedures for sizing various components of a PTE and for estimating capital as well as annual costs. It contains verification procedures for demonstrating compliance with EPA's five-point criteria. In addition, procedures are included to determine compliance with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standards. Meeting these standards is an important factor in properly designing PTEs. The methodology is encoded in Microsoft Exel spreadsheets to facilitate cost estimation and PTE verification. Examples are given throughout the methodology development and in the spreadsheets to illustrate the PTE design, verification, and cost estimation procedures.

  5. Procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lukey, M E; Prasad, C; Toothman, D A; Kaplan, N

    1999-07-01

    Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use permanent total enclosures (PTEs). By definition, an enclosure which meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's five-point criteria is a PTE and has a capture efficiency of 100%. Since costs play an important role in regulatory development, in selection of control equipment, and in control technology evaluations for permitting purposes, EPA has developed a Control Cost Manual for estimating costs of various items of control equipment. EPA's Manual does not contain any methodology for estimating PTE costs. In order to assist environmental regulators and potential users of PTEs, a methodology for estimating PTE costs was developed under contract with EPA, by Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. (PES) and is the subject of this paper. The methodology for estimating PTE costs follows the approach used for other control devices in the Manual. It includes procedures for sizing various components of a PTE and for estimating capital as well as annual costs. It contains verification procedures for demonstrating compliance with EPA's five-point criteria. In addition, procedures are included to determine compliance with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standards. Meeting these standards is an important factor in properly designing PTEs. The methodology is encoded in Microsoft Exel spreadsheets to facilitate cost estimation and PTE verification. Examples are given throughout the methodology development and in the spreadsheets to illustrate the PTE design, verification, and cost estimation procedures.

  6. 28 CFR 100.16 - Cost estimate submission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ..., quantity, and cost. (ii) Direct labor. Provide a time-phased (e.g., monthly, quarterly) breakdown of labor... estimates. (iii) Allocable direct costs. Indicate how allocable costs are computed and applied, including... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Cost estimate submission. 100.16 Section...

  7. Estimating Total Program Cost of a Long-Term, High-Technology, High-Risk Project with Task Durations and Costs That May Increase Over Time

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Brown, Gerald G; Grose, Roger T; Koyak, Robert A

    2006-01-01

    .... Each task suffers some risk of delay and changed cost. Ignoring budget constraints, we use Monte Carlo simulation of the duration of each task in the project to infer the probability distribution of the project completion time...

  8. Uncertainties in early-stage capital cost estimation of process design – a case study on biorefinery design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheali, Peam; Gernaey, Krist; Sin, Gürkan

    2015-01-01

    Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales, and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early-stage design is a challenging task, which......) the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data are not available. Four well-known models for early-stage cost estimation are reviewed and analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early-stage process design...

  9. The economic costs of radiation-induced health effects: Estimation and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.

    1988-08-01

    This effort improves the quantitative information available for use in evaluating actions that alter health risks due to population exposure to ionizing radiation. To project the potential future costs of changes in health effects risks, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) constructed a probabilistic computer model, Health Effects Costs Model (HECOM), which utilizes the health effect incidence estimates from accident consequences models to calculate the discounted sum of the economic costs associated with population exposure to ionizing radiation. Application of HECOM to value-impact and environmental impact analyses should greatly increase the quality of the information available for regulatory decision making. Three major types of health effects present risks for any population sustaining a significant radiation exposure: acute radiation injuries (and fatalities), latent cancers, and impairments due to genetic effects. The literature pertaining to both incidence and treatment of these health effects was reviewed by PNL and provided the basis for developing economic cost estimates. The economic costs of health effects estimated by HECOM represent both the value of resources consumed in diagnosing, treating, and caring for the patient and the value of goods not produced because of illness or premature death due to the health effect. Additional costs to society, such as pain and suffering, are not included in the PNL economic cost measures since they do not divert resources from other uses, are difficult to quantify, and do not have a value observable in the marketplace. 83 refs., 3 figs., 19 tabs

  10. The economic costs of radiation-induced health effects: Estimation and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.

    1988-08-01

    This effort improves the quantitative information available for use in evaluating actions that alter health risks due to population exposure to ionizing radiation. To project the potential future costs of changes in health effects risks, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) constructed a probabilistic computer model, Health Effects Costs Model (HECOM), which utilizes the health effect incidence estimates from accident consequences models to calculate the discounted sum of the economic costs associated with population exposure to ionizing radiation. Application of HECOM to value-impact and environmental impact analyses should greatly increase the quality of the information available for regulatory decision making. Three major types of health effects present risks for any population sustaining a significant radiation exposure: acute radiation injuries (and fatalities), latent cancers, and impairments due to genetic effects. The literature pertaining to both incidence and treatment of these health effects was reviewed by PNL and provided the basis for developing economic cost estimates. The economic costs of health effects estimated by HECOM represent both the value of resources consumed in diagnosing, treating, and caring for the patient and the value of goods not produced because of illness or premature death due to the health effect. Additional costs to society, such as pain and suffering, are not included in the PNL economic cost measures since they do not divert resources from other uses, are difficult to quantify, and do not have a value observable in the marketplace. 83 refs., 3 figs., 19 tabs.

  11. Administration and transaction cost estimates for a greenhouse gas offset system : final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Canada's Climate Change Plan provides large final emitters (LFEs) with the option to meet their emission targets through the purchase of domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) offset credits. This paper presents the results of a study which identified and estimated transaction costs associated with an offset system. The cost to both proponents and governments were identified. The study also suggested ways to reduce administration and transaction costs through design options. The study considered projects involving agriculture, forests, landfill gas capture, renewable energy and energy efficiency within a potential domestic offset system. It was determined that average transaction costs per tonne range from $19 per tonne to $0.05 depending on the design choice and project type. Total administration costs did not vary more than 5 per cent between different design choices. The total system costs, which are the combination of all transaction and administration costs, are the best indicator for the potential of a project. Eight case studies were examined and costs per tonne were presented. According to the results, the best opportunities to reduce both transaction and administration costs are to choose a broad approach to baselines, boundaries and quantification; and, to allow pooling in the forestry and agriculture sectors. Transaction costs can be lowered further by reducing the frequency of monitoring and verification and allowing pre-2008 crediting. refs., tabs., figs

  12. Handbook for quick cost estimates. A method for developing quick approximate estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ball, J.R.

    1986-04-01

    This document is a supplement to a ''Handbook for Cost Estimating'' (NUREG/CR-3971) and provides specific guidance for developing ''quick'' approximate estimates of the cost of implementing generic regulatory requirements for nuclear power plants. A method is presented for relating the known construction costs for new nuclear power plants (as contained in the Energy Economic Data Base) to the cost of performing similar work, on a back-fit basis, at existing plants. Cost factors are presented to account for variations in such important cost areas as construction labor productivity, engineering and quality assurance, replacement energy, reworking of existing features, and regional variations in the cost of materials and labor. Other cost categories addressed in this handbook include those for changes in plant operating personnel and plant documents, licensee costs, NRC costs, and costs for other government agencies. Data sheets, worksheets, and appropriate cost algorithms are included to guide the user through preparation of rough estimates. A sample estimate is prepared using the method and the estimating tools provided.

  13. Handbook for quick cost estimates. A method for developing quick approximate estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ball, J.R.

    1986-04-01

    This document is a supplement to a ''Handbook for Cost Estimating'' (NUREG/CR-3971) and provides specific guidance for developing ''quick'' approximate estimates of the cost of implementing generic regulatory requirements for nuclear power plants. A method is presented for relating the known construction costs for new nuclear power plants (as contained in the Energy Economic Data Base) to the cost of performing similar work, on a back-fit basis, at existing plants. Cost factors are presented to account for variations in such important cost areas as construction labor productivity, engineering and quality assurance, replacement energy, reworking of existing features, and regional variations in the cost of materials and labor. Other cost categories addressed in this handbook include those for changes in plant operating personnel and plant documents, licensee costs, NRC costs, and costs for other government agencies. Data sheets, worksheets, and appropriate cost algorithms are included to guide the user through preparation of rough estimates. A sample estimate is prepared using the method and the estimating tools provided

  14. An Exploratory Study of Software Cost Estimating at the Electronic Systems Division.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-07-01

    action’. to improve the software cost Sestimating proces., While thin research was limited to the M.nD onvironment, the same types of problema may exist...Methods in Social Science. Now York: Random House, 1969. 57. Smith, Ronald L. Structured Programming Series (Vol. XI) - Estimating Software Project

  15. Assuring Software Cost Estimates: Is it an Oxymoron?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hihn, Jarius; Tregre, Grant

    2013-01-01

    The software industry repeatedly observes cost growth of well over 100% even after decades of cost estimation research and well-known best practices, so "What's the problem?" In this paper we will provide an overview of the current state oj software cost estimation best practice. We then explore whether applying some of the methods used in software assurance might improve the quality of software cost estimates. This paper especially focuses on issues associated with model calibration, estimate review, and the development and documentation of estimates as part alan integrated plan.

  16. Preliminary estimates of cost savings for defense high level waste vitrification options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merrill, R.A.; Chapman, C.C.

    1993-09-01

    The potential for realizing cost savings in the disposal of defense high-level waste through process and design modificatins has been considered. Proposed modifications range from simple changes in the canister design to development of an advanced melter capable of processing glass with a higher waste loading. Preliminary calculations estimate the total disposal cost (not including capital or operating costs) for defense high-level waste to be about $7.9 billion dollars for the reference conditions described in this paper, while projected savings resulting from the proposed process and design changes could reduce the disposal cost of defense high-level waste by up to $5.2 billion

  17. Estimated generic prices of cancer medicines deemed cost-ineffective in England: a cost estimation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Andrew; Redd, Christopher; Gotham, Dzintars; Erbacher, Isabelle; Meldrum, Jonathan; Harada, Ryo

    2017-01-20

    The aim of this study was to estimate lowest possible treatment costs for four novel cancer drugs, hypothesising that generic manufacturing could significantly reduce treatment costs. This research was carried out in a non-clinical research setting using secondary data. There were no human participants in the study. Four drugs were selected for the study: bortezomib, dasatinib, everolimus and gefitinib. These medications were selected according to their clinical importance, novel pharmaceutical actions and the availability of generic price data. Target costs for treatment were to be generated for each indication for each treatment. The primary outcome measure was the target cost according to a production cost calculation algorithm. The secondary outcome measure was the target cost as the lowest available generic price; this was necessary where export data were not available to generate an estimate from our cost calculation algorithm. Other outcomes included patent expiry dates and total eligible treatment populations. Target prices were £411 per cycle for bortezomib, £9 per month for dasatinib, £852 per month for everolimus and £10 per month for gefitinib. Compared with current list prices in England, these target prices would represent reductions of 74-99.6%. Patent expiry dates were bortezomib 2014-22, dasatinib 2020-26, everolimus 2019-25 and gefitinib 2017. The total global eligible treatment population in 1 year is 769 736. Our findings demonstrate that affordable drug treatment costs are possible for novel cancer drugs, suggesting that new therapeutic options can be made available to patients and doctors worldwide. Assessing treatment cost estimations alongside cost-effectiveness evaluations is an important area of future research. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  18. Cost estimation of Kyoto Protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Giulio, Enzo

    2005-01-01

    This article proposes a reflection on important aspects in the costs determination performance of Kyoto Protocol. The evaluation of the main models evidence possible impacts on the economies. A key role in the determination of the cost is represented by the relative hypothesis to emission trading and the projects CDM-JI and from the political capacity at the cost negative or equal to zero [it

  19. Estimating the costs of school closure for mitigating an influenza pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adams Elisabeth J

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background School closure is a key component of many countries' plans to mitigate the effect of an influenza pandemic. Although a number of studies have suggested that such a policy might reduce the incidence, there are no published studies of the cost of such policies. This study attempts to fill this knowledge gap Methods School closure is expected to lead to significant work absenteeism of working parents who are likely to be the main care givers to their dependent children at home. The cost of absenteeism due to school closure is calculated as the paid productivity loss of parental absenteeism during the period of school closure. The cost is estimated from societal perspective using a nationally representative survey. Results The results show that overall about 16% of the workforce is likely to be the main caregiver for dependent children and therefore likely to take absenteeism. This rises to 30% in the health and social care sector, as a large proportion of the workforce are women. The estimated costs of school closure are significant, at £0.2 bn – £1.2 bn per week. School closure is likely to significantly exacerbate the pressures on the health system through staff absenteeism. Conclusion The estimates of school closure associated absenteeism and the projected cost would be useful for pandemic planning for business continuity, and for cost effectiveness evaluation of different pandemic influenza mitigation strategies.

  20. Collider Scaling and Cost Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer, R.B.

    1986-01-01

    This paper deals with collider cost and scaling. The main points of the discussion are the following ones: 1) scaling laws and cost estimation: accelerating gradient requirements, total stored RF energy considerations, peak power consideration, average power consumption; 2) cost optimization; 3) Bremsstrahlung considerations; 4) Focusing optics: conventional, laser focusing or super disruption. 13 refs

  1. Costs of regulatory compliance: categories and estimating techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulte, S.C.; McDonald, C.L.; Wood, M.T.; Cole, R.M.; Hauschulz, K.

    1978-10-01

    Use of the categorization scheme and cost estimating approaches presented in this report can make cost estimates of regulation required compliance activities of value to policy makers. The report describes a uniform assessment framework that when used would assure that cost studies are generated on an equivalent basis. Such normalization would make comparisons of different compliance activity cost estimates more meaningful, thus enabling the relative merits of different regulatory options to be more effectively judged. The framework establishes uniform cost reporting accounts and cost estimating approaches for use in assessing the costs of complying with regulatory actions. The framework was specifically developed for use in a current study at Pacific Northwest Laboratory. However, use of the procedures for other applications is also appropriate

  2. Social cost in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Çelik, Tolga; Kamali, Saeed; Arayici, Yusuf

    2017-01-01

    Despite the fact that completion of construction projects has a direct positive impact on the growth of national and local economies as well as humans' wellbeing, construction projects, especially in the urban areas, generate serious environmental nuisances for the adjacent residents and have unintentional adverse impacts on their surrounding environment. Construction causative adverse impacts on the neighbouring communities are known as the social costs. This study aims to present a state-of-the-art overview of social costs in construction industry in terms of definition, consideration, classification and quantification. Furthermore, it is aimed to bring the construction social cost phenomenon for the agenda of Environmental Impact Assessors.

  3. Social cost in construction projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Çelik, Tolga, E-mail: tolga.celik@emu.edu.tr [Department of Civil Engineering, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, T.R. North Cyprus, Via Mersin 10 (Turkey); Kamali, Saeed, E-mail: saeedkamali2002@gmail.com [Civil Engineering Department, Middle East Technical University, 06800 Ankara (Turkey); Arayici, Yusuf, E-mail: yusuf.arayici@hku.edu.tr [Department of Civil Engineering, Hasan Kalyoncu University, Gaziantep (Turkey)

    2017-05-15

    Despite the fact that completion of construction projects has a direct positive impact on the growth of national and local economies as well as humans' wellbeing, construction projects, especially in the urban areas, generate serious environmental nuisances for the adjacent residents and have unintentional adverse impacts on their surrounding environment. Construction causative adverse impacts on the neighbouring communities are known as the social costs. This study aims to present a state-of-the-art overview of social costs in construction industry in terms of definition, consideration, classification and quantification. Furthermore, it is aimed to bring the construction social cost phenomenon for the agenda of Environmental Impact Assessors.

  4. Estimating boiling water reactor decommissioning costs. A user's manual for the BWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software: Draft report for comment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bierschbach, M.C.

    1994-12-01

    With the issuance of the Decommissioning Rule (July 27, 1988), nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the U.S. Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review, decommissioning plans and cost estimates. This user's manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personal computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning BWR power stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning

  5. Advanced fuel cycle cost estimation model and its cost estimation results for three nuclear fuel cycles using a dynamic model in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sungki, E-mail: sgkim1@kaeri.re.kr [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Ko, Wonil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Youn, Saerom; Gao, Ruxing [University of Science and Technology, 217 Gajungro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-350 (Korea, Republic of); Bang, Sungsig, E-mail: ssbang@kaist.ac.kr [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Department of Business and Technology Management, 291 Deahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-11-15

    Highlights: • The nuclear fuel cycle cost using a new cost estimation model was analyzed. • The material flows of three nuclear fuel cycle options were calculated. • The generation cost of once-through was estimated to be 66.88 mills/kW h. • The generation cost of pyro-SFR recycling was estimated to be 78.06 mills/kW h. • The reactor cost was identified as the main cost driver of pyro-SFR recycling. - Abstract: The present study analyzes advanced nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation models such as the different discount rate model and its cost estimation results. To do so, an analysis of the nuclear fuel cycle cost of three options (direct disposal (once through), PWR–MOX (Mixed OXide fuel), and Pyro-SFR (Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor)) from the viewpoint of economic sense, focusing on the cost estimation model, was conducted using a dynamic model. From an analysis of the fuel cycle cost estimation results, it was found that some cost gap exists between the traditional same discount rate model and the advanced different discount rate model. However, this gap does not change the priority of the nuclear fuel cycle option from the viewpoint of economics. In addition, the fuel cycle costs of OT (Once-Through) and Pyro-SFR recycling based on the most likely value using a probabilistic cost estimation except for reactor costs were calculated to be 8.75 mills/kW h and 8.30 mills/kW h, respectively. Namely, the Pyro-SFR recycling option was more economical than the direct disposal option. However, if the reactor cost is considered, the economic sense in the generation cost between the two options (direct disposal vs. Pyro-SFR recycling) can be changed because of the high reactor cost of an SFR.

  6. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  7. Estimation of optimal educational cost per medical student.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Eunbae B; Lee, Seunghee

    2009-09-01

    This study aims to estimate the optimal educational cost per medical student. A private medical college in Seoul was targeted by the study, and its 2006 learning environment and data from the 2003~2006 budget and settlement were carefully analyzed. Through interviews with 3 medical professors and 2 experts in the economics of education, the study attempted to establish the educational cost estimation model, which yields an empirically computed estimate of the optimal cost per student in medical college. The estimation model was based primarily upon the educational cost which consisted of direct educational costs (47.25%), support costs (36.44%), fixed asset purchases (11.18%) and costs for student affairs (5.14%). These results indicate that the optimal cost per student is approximately 20,367,000 won each semester; thus, training a doctor costs 162,936,000 won over 4 years. Consequently, we inferred that the tuition levels of a local medical college or professional medical graduate school cover one quarter or one-half of the per- student cost. The findings of this study do not necessarily imply an increase in medical college tuition; the estimation of the per-student cost for training to be a doctor is one matter, and the issue of who should bear this burden is another. For further study, we should consider the college type and its location for general application of the estimation method, in addition to living expenses and opportunity costs.

  8. What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren L.

    cost escalation for three types of project ownership - private, state-owned enterprise and other public ownership - it is shown that the oft-seen claim that public ownership is problematic and private ownership effective in curbing cost escalation is an oversimplification. Type of accountability......This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of causes of cost escalation in transport infrastructure projects. The study is based on a sample of 258 rail, bridge, tunnel and roads projects worth US$90 billion. The focus is on the dependence of cost escalation on (1......) length of project implementation phase, (2) size of project and (3) type of project ownership. First, it is found with very high statistical significance that cost escalation is strongly dependent on length of implementation phase. The policy implications are clear: Decision makers and planners should...

  9. Projected Costs of Informal Caregiving for Cardiovascular Disease: 2015 to 2035: A Policy Statement From the American Heart Association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, Sandra B; Khavjou, Olga A; Bakas, Tamilyn; Hunt, Gail; Kirch, Rebecca A; Leib, Alyssa R; Morrison, R Sean; Poehler, Diana C; Roger, Veronique L; Whitsel, Laurie P

    2018-05-08

    In a recent report, the American Heart Association estimated that medical costs and productivity losses of cardiovascular disease (CVD) are expected to grow from $555 billion in 2015 to $1.1 trillion in 2035. Although the burden is significant, the estimate does not include the costs of family, informal, or unpaid caregiving provided to patients with CVD. In this analysis, we estimated projections of costs of informal caregiving attributable to CVD for 2015 to 2035. We used data from the 2014 Health and Retirement Survey to estimate hours of informal caregiving for individuals with CVD by age/sex/race using a zero-inflated binomial model and controlling for sociodemographic factors and health conditions. Costs of informal caregiving were estimated separately for hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and other heart disease. We analyzed data from a nationally representative sample of 16 731 noninstitutionalized adults ≥54 years of age. The value of caregiving hours was monetized by the use of home health aide workers' wages. The per-person costs were multiplied by census population counts to estimate nation-level costs and to be consistent with other American Heart Association analyses of burden of CVD, and the costs were projected from 2015 through 2035, assuming that within each age/sex/racial group, CVD prevalence and caregiving hours remain constant. The costs of informal caregiving for patients with CVD were estimated to be $61 billion in 2015 and are projected to increase to $128 billion in 2035. Costs of informal caregiving of patients with stroke constitute more than half of the total costs of CVD informal caregiving ($31 billion in 2015 and $66 billion in 2035). By age, costs are the highest among those 65 to 79 years of age in 2015 but are expected to be surpassed by costs among those ≥80 years of age by 2035. Costs of informal caregiving for patients with CVD represent an additional 11% of medical and productivity costs

  10. Residential outage cost estimation: Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, C.K.; Ho, T.; Shiu, A.; Cheng, Y.S.; Horowitz, I.; Wang, J.

    2014-01-01

    Hong Kong has almost perfect electricity reliability, the result of substantial investments ultimately financed by electricity consumers who may be willing to accept lower reliability in exchange for lower bills. But consumers with high outage costs are likely to reject the reliability reduction. Our ordered-logit regression analysis of the responses by 1876 households to a telephone survey conducted in June 2013 indicates that Hong Kong residents exhibit a statistically-significant preference for their existing service reliability and rate. Moreover, the average residential cost estimate for a 1-h outage is US$45 (HK$350), topping the estimates reported in 10 of the 11 studies published in the last 10 years. The policy implication is that absent additional compelling evidence, Hong Kong should not reduce its service reliability. - Highlights: • Use a contingent valuation survey to obtain residential preferences for reliability. • Use an ordered logit analysis to estimate Hong Kong's residential outage costs. • Find high outage cost estimates that imply high reliability requirements. • Conclude that sans new evidence, Hong Kong should not reduce its reliability

  11. Advanced Composite Air Frame Life Cycle Cost Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-19

    the ACCA based on the cost . This cost analysis takes into account the increased performance parameters of the new airframe structure. This research...20 Advanced Composite Cargo Aircraft ( ACCA ) ..........................................................23 viii Cost Estimation...establishing the procurement strategies and life cycle cost (LCC) model cost estimations. The current LCC models do not take into account the potential cost

  12. European Wind Farm Project Costs History and Projections 2008 Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-10-15

    At the request of Enova (the 'Client'), Garrad Hassan and Partners Limited ('GH') has provided technical advice on capital cost expectations for wind farm developments. In summary, the work provides a survey of the present and future 5-year prognosis for costs and conditions facing developers and suppliers in the European wind power market. The report will be used as a benchmark to support tendering for future Norwegian projects. As such, it will also provide discussion of how project characteristics can influence project cost. Data Used in the Analysis GH has obtained data on the investment costs for 35 projects developed or in development in Europe. The projects represent to the extent possible the characteristics representative of potential Norwegian projects. The data used in this analysis are from actual projects in: France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Northern Ireland, Portugal, Scotland, Spain and Wales. The turbine capacities represented in the data are typically 2 MW or above, except in one case where a mix of turbines sizes was used at the project. GH highlights that because of high demand for turbines, the main manufacturers have recently been offering to meet delivery schedules for new orders from late 2010. For new tenders it is likely that delivery time frames offered will now be for 2011 deliveries. As a result of the current 'Seller's Market', production capacity typically relates directly to the number of turbines sold in the year; therefore for 2007 the annual production capacity was approximately 22 GW. GH is aware that turbine suppliers across the market are working to increase their production capacity in order to ease the pressure on the market, however, there are bottlenecks through the supply chain at the sub component level. As a result, increases in production capacity will likely remain at a relatively steady state in the short term. Energy Assessment The energy assessment of a project is the area

  13. Establishing a cost model when estimating product cost in early design phases

    OpenAIRE

    Jeppsson, Johanna; Sjöberg, Jessica

    2017-01-01

    About 75% of the total product cost is determined in the early design phase, which means that the possibilities to affect costs are relatively small when the design phase is completed. For companies, it is therefore vital to conduct reliable cost estimates in the early design phase, when selecting between different design choices. When conducting a cost estimate there are many uncertainties. The aim with this study is therefore to explore how uncertainties regarding product cost can be consid...

  14. Sparse Adaptive Channel Estimation Based on lp-Norm-Penalized Affine Projection Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingsong Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose an lp-norm-penalized affine projection algorithm (LP-APA for broadband multipath adaptive channel estimations. The proposed LP-APA is realized by incorporating an lp-norm into the cost function of the conventional affine projection algorithm (APA to exploit the sparsity property of the broadband wireless multipath channel, by which the convergence speed and steady-state performance of the APA are significantly improved. The implementation of the LP-APA is equivalent to adding a zero attractor to its iterations. The simulation results, which are obtained from a sparse channel estimation, demonstrate that the proposed LP-APA can efficiently improve channel estimation performance in terms of both the convergence speed and steady-state performance when the channel is exactly sparse.

  15. Error Cost Escalation Through the Project Life Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stecklein, Jonette M.; Dabney, Jim; Dick, Brandon; Haskins, Bill; Lovell, Randy; Moroney, Gregory

    2004-01-01

    It is well known that the costs to fix errors increase as the project matures, but how fast do those costs build? A study was performed to determine the relative cost of fixing errors discovered during various phases of a project life cycle. This study used three approaches to determine the relative costs: the bottom-up cost method, the total cost breakdown method, and the top-down hypothetical project method. The approaches and results described in this paper presume development of a hardware/software system having project characteristics similar to those used in the development of a large, complex spacecraft, a military aircraft, or a small communications satellite. The results show the degree to which costs escalate, as errors are discovered and fixed at later and later phases in the project life cycle. If the cost of fixing a requirements error discovered during the requirements phase is defined to be 1 unit, the cost to fix that error if found during the design phase increases to 3 - 8 units; at the manufacturing/build phase, the cost to fix the error is 7 - 16 units; at the integration and test phase, the cost to fix the error becomes 21 - 78 units; and at the operations phase, the cost to fix the requirements error ranged from 29 units to more than 1500 units

  16. Guidelines for estimating nuclear power plant decommissioning costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaGuardia, T.S.; Williams, D.H.

    1989-01-01

    The objectives of the study were: (1) To develop guidelines to facilitate estimating the cost of nuclear power plant decommissioning alternatives on a plant-specific basis and to facilitate comparing estimates made by others. The guidelines are expressed in a form that could be readily adapted by technical specialists from individual utilities or by other uses. (2) To enhance the industry's credibility with decision-makes at the state and federal levels during rate/regulatory processes involving decommissioning costs. This is accomplished by providing a detailed, systematic breakdown of how decommissioning cost estimates are prepared. (3) To increase the validity, realism, and accuracy of site-specific decommissioning cost estimates. This is accomplished by pulling together the experiences and practices of several nuclear utilities and consultants in conducting past decommissioning cost estimates

  17. Cost analysis and estimating tools and techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Nussbaum, Daniel

    1990-01-01

    Changes in production processes reflect the technological advances permeat­ ing our products and services. U. S. industry is modernizing and automating. In parallel, direct labor is fading as the primary cost driver while engineering and technology related cost elements loom ever larger. Traditional, labor-based ap­ proaches to estimating costs are losing their relevance. Old methods require aug­ mentation with new estimating tools and techniques that capture the emerging environment. This volume represents one of many responses to this challenge by the cost analysis profession. The Institute of Cost Analysis (lCA) is dedicated to improving the effective­ ness of cost and price analysis and enhancing the professional competence of its members. We encourage and promote exchange of research findings and appli­ cations between the academic community and cost professionals in industry and government. The 1990 National Meeting in Los Angeles, jointly spo~sored by ICA and the National Estimating Society (NES),...

  18. The cost of Alzheimer's disease in China and re-estimation of costs worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Jianping; Wei, Cuibai; Chen, Shuoqi; Li, Fangyu; Tang, Yi; Qin, Wei; Zhao, Lina; Jin, Hongmei; Xu, Hui; Wang, Fen; Zhou, Aihong; Zuo, Xiumei; Wu, Liyong; Han, Ying; Han, Yue; Huang, Liyuan; Wang, Qi; Li, Dan; Chu, Changbiao; Shi, Lu; Gong, Min; Du, Yifeng; Zhang, Jiewen; Zhang, Junjian; Zhou, Chunkui; Lv, Jihui; Lv, Yang; Xie, Haiqun; Ji, Yong; Li, Fang; Yu, Enyan; Luo, Benyan; Wang, Yanjiang; Yang, Shanshan; Qu, Qiumin; Guo, Qihao; Liang, Furu; Zhang, Jintao; Tan, Lan; Shen, Lu; Zhang, Kunnan; Zhang, Jinbiao; Peng, Dantao; Tang, Muni; Lv, Peiyuan; Fang, Boyan; Chu, Lan; Jia, Longfei; Gauthier, Serge

    2018-04-01

    The socioeconomic costs of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in China and its impact on global economic burden remain uncertain. We collected data from 3098 patients with AD in 81 representative centers across China and estimated AD costs for individual patient and total patients in China in 2015. Based on this data, we re-estimated the worldwide costs of AD. The annual socioeconomic cost per patient was US $19,144.36, and total costs were US $167.74 billion in 2015. The annual total costs are predicted to reach US $507.49 billion in 2030 and US $1.89 trillion in 2050. Based on our results, the global estimates of costs for dementia were US $957.56 billion in 2015, and will be US $2.54 trillion in 2030, and US $9.12 trillion in 2050, much more than the predictions by the World Alzheimer Report 2015. China bears a heavy burden of AD costs, which greatly change the estimates of AD cost worldwide. Copyright © 2017 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Estimating the costs of human space exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.

    1994-01-01

    The plan for NASA's new exploration initiative has the following strategic themes: (1) incremental, logical evolutionary development; (2) economic viability; and (3) excellence in management. The cost estimation process is involved with all of these themes and they are completely dependent upon the engineering cost estimator for success. The purpose is to articulate the issues associated with beginning this major new government initiative, to show how NASA intends to resolve them, and finally to demonstrate the vital importance of a leadership role by the cost estimation community.

  20. Project control integrating cost and schedule in construction

    CERN Document Server

    Del Pico, Wayne J

    2013-01-01

    The key to successful project control is the fusing of cost to schedule whereby the management of one helps to manage the other. Project Control: Integrating Cost and Schedule in Construction explores the reasons behind and the methodologies for proper planning, monitoring, and controlling both project costs and schedule. Filling a current void the topic of project control applied to the construction industry, it is essential reading for students and professionals alike.

  1. Estimating asbestos abatement projects: Excellence or 'You said I missed what'?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frawley, R.F.

    1992-01-01

    Between 1900 and 1980, 30 million tons of asbestos were put in place. Because of the known health hazards and increasing federal, state, and local regulations, building owners are now facing the problem of asbestos abatement. There are 4 basic approaches to dealing with asbestos: (1) removal, (2) enclosure, (3) encapsulation, (4) deferred action in conjunction with a well defined operations and maintenance program. Once the full extent of the problem is determined, the decision can be made on which action or combination of actions to take and begin estimating the cost of the asbestos abatement project. There are no high-tech methods of asbestos removal. It is hot, wet, labor intensive work, the ways of removal are archaic. Removal means man power and man hours, labor is a big ticket item, and is an important factor in cost estimating. Become very familiar with the scope of the project and be sure to fully understand the depth of the asbestos problem. The products, supplies, tools, and in some cases, the machines are all disposable items. If one overlooks something or underestimates the time involved for removal, not only will one be way off on material, the labor costs will soar. Be very observant on walk throughs, notice everything. Be sure to get clear, accurate test results on material to be removed. Once all this is done, one can make a good take off with confidence. Finally, when in doubt always remember the 11th commandment of asbestos abatement cost-estimating 'If thou can't figure it out hor-ellipsis thou best figure it in.'

  2. Waste Management Project Contingency Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edward L. Parsons, Jr.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide the office of Waste Management (WM) with recommended contingency calculation procedures for typical WM projects. Typical projects were defined as conventional construction-type activities that use innovative elements when necessary to meet the project objectives. Projects involve treatment, storage, and disposal of low level, mixed low level, hazardous, transuranic, and high level waste. Cost contingencies are an essential part of Total Cost Management. A contingency is an amount added to a cost estimate to compensate for unexpected expenses resulting from incomplete design, unforeseen and unpredictable conditions, or uncertainties in the project scope (DOE 1994, AACE 1998). Contingency allowances are expressed as percentages of estimated cost and improve cost estimates by accounting for uncertainties. The contingency allowance is large at the beginning of a project because there are more uncertainties, but as a project develops, the allowance shrinks to adjust for costs already incurred. Ideally, the total estimated cost remains the same throughout a project. Project contingency reflects the degree of uncertainty caused by lack of project definition, and process contingency reflects the degree of uncertainty caused by use of new technology. Different cost estimation methods were reviewed and compared with respect to terminology, accuracy, and Cost Guide standards. The Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE) methods for cost estimation were selected to represent best industry practice. AACE methodology for contingency analysis can be readily applied to WM Projects, accounts for uncertainties associated with different stages of a project, and considers both project and process contingencies and the stage of technical readiness. As recommended, AACE contingency allowances taper off linearly as a project nears completion

  3. Handbook for cost estimating. A method for developing estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ball, J.R.; Cohen, S.; Ziegler, E.Z.

    1984-10-01

    This document provides overall guidance to assist the NRC in preparing the types of cost estimates required by the Regulatory Analysis Guidelines and to assist in the assignment of priorities in resolving generic safety issues. The Handbook presents an overall cost model that allows the cost analyst to develop a chronological series of activities needed to implement a specific regulatory requirement throughout all applicable commercial LWR power plants and to identify the significant cost elements for each activity. References to available cost data are provided along with rules of thumb and cost factors to assist in evaluating each cost element. A suitable code-of-accounts data base is presented to assist in organizing and aggregating costs. Rudimentary cost analysis methods are described to allow the analyst to produce a constant-dollar, lifetime cost for the requirement. A step-by-step example cost estimate is included to demonstrate the overall use of the Handbook

  4. Nuclear shipping and waste disposal cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, C.R. II.

    1977-11-01

    Cost estimates for the shipping of spent fuel from the reactor, shipping of waste from the reprocessing plant, and disposal of reprocessing plant wastes have been made for five reactor types. The reactors considered are the light-water reactor (LWR), the mixed-oxide-fueled light-water reactor (MOX), the Canadian deuterium-uranium reactor (CANDU), the fast breeder reactor (FBR), and the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR). In addition to the cost estimates, this report provides details on the bases and assumptions used to develop the cost estimates

  5. Estimating the cost of cervical cancer screening in five developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goldie Sue J

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs can provide useful information to policymakers concerned with the broad allocation of resources as well as to local decision makers choosing between different options for reducing the burden from a single disease. For the latter, it is important to use country-specific data when possible and to represent cost differences between countries that might make one strategy more or less attractive than another strategy locally. As part of a CEA of cervical cancer screening in five developing countries, we supplemented limited primary cost data by developing other estimation techniques for direct medical and non-medical costs associated with alternative screening approaches using one of three initial screening tests: simple visual screening, HPV DNA testing, and cervical cytology. Here, we report estimation methods and results for three cost areas in which data were lacking. Methods To supplement direct medical costs, including staff, supplies, and equipment depreciation using country-specific data, we used alternative techniques to quantify cervical cytology and HPV DNA laboratory sample processing costs. We used a detailed quantity and price approach whose face validity was compared to an adaptation of a US laboratory estimation methodology. This methodology was also used to project annual sample processing capacities for each laboratory type. The cost of sample transport from the clinic to the laboratory was estimated using spatial models. A plausible range of the cost of patient time spent seeking and receiving screening was estimated using only formal sector employment and wages as well as using both formal and informal sector participation and country-specific minimum wages. Data sources included primary data from country-specific studies, international databases, international prices, and expert opinion. Costs were standardized to year 2000 international dollars using inflation adjustment and

  6. A conceptual framework for the evaluation of cost-effectiveness of projects to reduce GHG emissions and sequester carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathaye, J.; Norgaard, R.; Makundi, W.

    1993-07-01

    This paper proposes a conceptual framework for evaluating the cost of projects to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs). The evaluation of cost-effectiveness should account for both the timing of carbon emissions and the damage caused by the atmospheric stock of carbon. We develop a conceptual basis to estimate the cost-effectiveness of projects in terms of the cost of reducing atmospheric carbon (CRAC) and other GHGs. CRAC accounts for the economic discount rate, alternative functional forms of the shadow price, the residence period of carbon in the atmosphere, and the multiple monetary benefits of projects. The last item is of particular importance to the developing countries

  7. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-02-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

  8. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-01-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

  9. Cost Model for Digital Curation: Cost of Digital Migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2009-01-01

    The Danish Ministry of Culture is currently funding a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project is to provide a basis for comparing and estimating future financial requirements...... for digital preservation and to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities. In this study we describe an activity based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the OAIS Reference Model. In order to estimate the cost of digital migrations we have identified cost critical...

  10. Estimating the cost of healthcare delivery in three hospitals in southern ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aboagye, A Q Q; Degboe, A N K; Obuobi, A A D

    2010-09-01

    The cost burden (called full cost) of providing health services at a referral, a district and a mission hospital in Ghana were determined. Standard cost-finding and cost analysis tools recommended by World Health Organization are used to analyse 2002 and 2003 hospital data. Full cost centre costs were computed by taking into account cash and non-cash expenses and allocating overhead costs to intermediate and final patient care centres. The full costs of running the mission hospital in 2002 and 2003 were US$600,295 and US$758,647 respectively; for the district hospital, the respective costs were US$496,240 and US$487,537; and for the referral hospital, the respective costs were US$1,160,535 and US$1,394,321. Of these, overhead costs ranged between 20% and 42%, while salaries made up between 45% and 60%. Based on healthcare utilization data, in 2003 the estimated cost per outpatient attendance was US$ 2.25 at the mission hospital, US$ 4.51 at the district hospital and US$8.5 at the referral hospital; inpatient day costs were US$ 6.05, US$ 9.95 and US$18.8 at the respective hospitals. User fees charged at service delivery points were generally below cost. However, some service delivery points have the potential to recover their costs. Salaries are the major cost component of the three hospitals. Overhead costs constitute an important part of hospital costs and must be noted in efforts to recover costs. Cost structures are different at different types of hospitals. Unit costs at service delivery points can be estimated and projected into the future.

  11. Evaluation of cost estimates and calculation methods used by SKB

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel Management Co. (SKB) has estimated the costs for decommissioning the swedish nuclear power plants and managing the nuclear wastes in a 'traditional' manner i.e. by handling uncertainties through percentage additions. A 'normal' addition is used for uncertainties in specified technical systems. 'Extra' additions are used for systems uncertainties. An alternative method is suggested, using top-down principles for uncertainties, which should be applied successively, giving higher precision as the knowledge accumulates. This type of calculation can help project managers to identify and deal with areas common to different partial projects. A first step in this direction would be to perform sensitivity analyses for the most important calculation parameters. 21 refs

  12. Applying Interpretive Structural Modeling to Cost Overruns in Construction Projects in the Sultanate of Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Alzebdeh

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Cost overruns in construction projects are a problem faced by project managers, engineers, and clients throughout the Middle East.  Globally, several studies in the literature have focused on identifying the causes of these overruns and used statistical methods to rank them according to their impacts. None of these studies have considered the interactions among these factors. This paper examines interpretive structural modelling (ISM as a viable technique for modelling complex interactions among factors responsible for cost overruns in construction projects in the Sultanate of Oman. In particular, thirteen interrelated factors associated with cost overruns were identified, along with their contextual interrelationships. Application of ISM leads to organizing these factors in a hierarchical structure which effectively demonstrates their interactions in a simple way. Four factors were found to be at the root of cost overruns: instability of the US dollar, changes in governmental regulations, faulty cost estimation, and poor coordination among projects’ parties. Taking appropriate actions to minimize the influence of these factors can ultimately lead to better control of future project costs. Thisstudy is of value to managers and decision makers because it provides a powerful yet very easy to apply approach for investigating the problem of cost overruns and other similar issues.

  13. Determination of prerequisites for the estimation of transportation cost of spent fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Heui Joo; Lee, Jong Youl; Kim, Seong Ki; Cha, Jeong Hoon; Choi, Jong Won

    2007-10-01

    The cost for the spent fuel management includes the costs for the interim storage, the transportation, and the permanent disposal of the spent fuels. The scope of this report is limited to the cost for the spent fuel transportation. KAERI is developing a cost estimation method for the spent fuel transportation through a joint study with the French AREVA TN. Several prerequisites should be fixed in order to estimate the cost for the spent fuel transportation properly. In this report we produced them considering the Korean current status on the management of spent fuels. The representative characteristics of a spent fuel generated from the six nuclear reactors at the YG site were determined. Total 7,200 tons of spent fuels are projected with the lifespan of 60 years. As the transportation mode, sea transportation and road transportation is recommended considering the location of the YG site and the hypothetical Centralized Interim Storage Facility (CISF) and Final Repository (FR). The sea route and transportation time were analyzed by using a sea distance analysis program which the NORI (National Oceanographic Research Institute) supplies on a web. Based on the results of the analysis, the shipping rates were determined. The regulations related to the spent fuel transportation were reviewed. The characteristics of the transportation vessel and a trailer were suggested. The handling and transportation systems at the YG site, Centralized Interim Storage Facility, and the Final Repository were described in detail for the purpose of the cost estimation of the spent fuel transportation. From the detail description the major components of the transportation system were determined for the conceptual design. It is believed that the conceptual design of the transportation system developed in this report will be used for the analysis of transportation logistics and the cost estimation of spent fuels

  14. Cost benchmarking of railway projects in Europe – can it help to reduce costs?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trabo, Inara; Landex, Alex; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    a certain overview of the range of costs in various budget disciplines. The Copenhagen-Ringsted project is shown to be right in the middle of the range in terms of total costs per kilometre, and its values in the discipline comparisons do not significantly differ from the values of the less expensive...... projects. Deeper analysis of project unit costs is still continuing, but the preliminary results show that the cost values for projects located in the same geographical zone are similar. For example, this can be explained by their use of the same construction companies. However, unit prices in southern...

  15. Opportunities for low-cost CO2 storage demonstration projects in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng, Kyle C.; Williams, Robert H.; Celia, Michael A.

    2007-01-01

    Several CO 2 storage demonstration projects are needed in a variety of geological formations worldwide to prove the viability of CO 2 capture and storage as a major option for climate change mitigation. China has several low-cost CO 2 sources at sites that produce NH 3 from coal via gasification. At these plants, CO 2 generated in excess of the amount needed for other purposes (e.g., urea synthesis) is vented as a relatively pure stream. These CO 2 sources would potentially be economically interesting candidates for storage demonstration projects if there are suitable storage sites nearby. In this study a survey was conducted to estimate CO 2 availability at modern Chinese coal-fed ammonia plants. Results indicate that annual quantities of available, relatively pure CO 2 per site range from 0.6 to 1.1 million tonnes. The CO 2 source assessment was complemented by analysis of possible nearby opportunities for CO 2 storage. CO 2 sources were mapped in relation to China's petroliferous sedimentary basins where prospective CO 2 storage reservoirs possibly exist. Four promising pairs of sources and sinks were identified. Project costs for storage in deep saline aquifers were estimated for each pairing ranging from $15-21/t of CO 2 . Potential enhanced oil recovery and enhanced coal bed methane recovery opportunities near each prospective source were also considered

  16. Cost Implications of Uncertainty in CO{sub 2} Storage Resource Estimates: A Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Steven T., E-mail: sanderson@usgs.gov [National Center, U.S. Geological Survey (United States)

    2017-04-15

    Carbon capture from stationary sources and geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) is an important option to include in strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. However, the potential costs of commercial-scale CO{sub 2} storage are not well constrained, stemming from the inherent uncertainty in storage resource estimates coupled with a lack of detailed estimates of the infrastructure needed to access those resources. Storage resource estimates are highly dependent on storage efficiency values or storage coefficients, which are calculated based on ranges of uncertain geological and physical reservoir parameters. If dynamic factors (such as variability in storage efficiencies, pressure interference, and acceptable injection rates over time), reservoir pressure limitations, boundaries on migration of CO{sub 2}, consideration of closed or semi-closed saline reservoir systems, and other possible constraints on the technically accessible CO{sub 2} storage resource (TASR) are accounted for, it is likely that only a fraction of the TASR could be available without incurring significant additional costs. Although storage resource estimates typically assume that any issues with pressure buildup due to CO{sub 2} injection will be mitigated by reservoir pressure management, estimates of the costs of CO{sub 2} storage generally do not include the costs of active pressure management. Production of saline waters (brines) could be essential to increasing the dynamic storage capacity of most reservoirs, but including the costs of this critical method of reservoir pressure management could increase current estimates of the costs of CO{sub 2} storage by two times, or more. Even without considering the implications for reservoir pressure management, geologic uncertainty can significantly impact CO{sub 2} storage capacities and costs, and contribute to uncertainty in carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems. Given the current state of available information and the

  17. Experiments, conceptual design, preliminary cost estimates and schedules for an underground research facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korbin, G.; Wollenberg, H.; Wilson, C.; Strisower, B.; Chan, T.; Wedge, D.

    1981-09-01

    Plans for an underground research facility are presented, incorporating techniques to assess the hydrological and thermomechanical response of a rock mass to the introduction and long-term isolation of radioactive waste, and to assess the effects of excavation on the hydrologic integrity of a repository and its subsequent backfill, plugging, and sealing. The project is designed to utilize existing mine or civil works for access to experimental areas and is estimated to last 8 years at a total cost for contruction and operation of $39.0 million (1981 dollars). Performing the same experiments in an existing underground research facility would reduce the duration to 7-1/2 years and cost $27.7 million as a lower-bound estimate. These preliminary plans and estimates should be revised after specific sites are identified which would accommodate the facility

  18. Focus on International Cooperation in D and D Cost Estimations for Research Reactors and the Role of the IAEA in It

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniska, V.; Laraia, M.

    2009-01-01

    Estimating decommissioning costs and collecting funds are the prerequisites for safe, timely and cost effective decommissioning. These issues were addressed by main international organizations involved in decommissioning - IAEA, OECD/NEA and European Commission. While the activities of OECD/NEA and European Commission are focused mainly on nuclear power plants, the activities of IAEA involve the whole spectrum of nuclear facilities worldwide and the aspects of decommissioning of research reactors, due to their spread in member states, have the special position in IAEA activities. The experience in decommissioning of research reactors was accumulated in developed countries and international activities are needed to support the planning and implementation of decommissioning of research reactors in other IAEA Member States. Decommissioning costing plays the key role among these issues. One of the main results of the common effort of the above listed organisations in costing is the standardised structure of decommissioning cost items which was jointly published as the common platform for harmonisation in decommissioning costing and is recommended for general use. Main subject of the paper is the preliminary presentation of a new IAEA project planned for the period 2009-2011 with the objectives to develop the robust standardised cost estimation methodology, which implements the standardised cost structure. The aim of the proposed methodology is to support the Member States to prepare their own specific cost estimates for research reactors. The planned target is the parametric cost estimating model applicable for various types of research reactors and for various national decommissioning backgrounds. The model is supported by facility inventory database and database of unit factors and data specific for facility to be decommissioned. The paper reviews main types of research reactors; the currant practice for decommissioning costing which will be implemented in the

  19. Cost Estimating Cases: Educational Tools for Cost Analysts

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-09-01

    only appropriate documentation should be provided. In other words, students should not submit all of the documentation possible using ACEIT , only that...case was their lack of understanding of the ACEIT software used to conduct the estimate. Specifically, many students misinterpreted the cost...estimating relationships (CERs) embedded in the 49 software. Additionally, few of the students were able to properly organize the ACEIT documentation output

  20. State-Level Estimates of Cancer-Related Absenteeism Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangka, Florence K.; Trogdon, Justin G.; Nwaise, Isaac; Ekwueme, Donatus U.; Guy, Gery P.; Orenstein, Diane

    2016-01-01

    Background Cancer is one of the top five most costly diseases in the United States and leads to substantial work loss. Nevertheless, limited state-level estimates of cancer absenteeism costs have been published. Methods In analyses of data from the 2004–2008 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the 2004 National Nursing Home Survey, the U.S. Census Bureau for 2008, and the 2009 Current Population Survey, we used regression modeling to estimate annual state-level absenteeism costs attributable to cancer from 2004 to 2008. Results We estimated that the state-level median number of days of absenteeism per year among employed cancer patients was 6.1 days and that annual state-level cancer absenteeism costs ranged from $14.9 million to $915.9 million (median = $115.9 million) across states in 2010 dollars. Absenteeism costs are approximately 6.5% of the costs of premature cancer mortality. Conclusions The results from this study suggest that lost productivity attributable to cancer is a substantial cost to employees and employers and contributes to estimates of the overall impact of cancer in a state population. PMID:23969498

  1. Windpower project ownership and financing: The cost impacts of alternative development structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiser, R.H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    This paper uses traditional financial cash-flow techniques to examine the impact of different ownership and financing structures on the cost of wind energy. While most large-scale wind projects are constructed, operated, and financed by non-utility generators (NUGs) via project financing, investor- and publicly-owned utilities have expressed interest in owning and financing their own facilities rather than purchasing wind energy from independent generators. A primary justification for utility ownership is that, because of financing and tax benefits, windpower may be cheaper when developed in this fashion. The results presented in this paper support that justification, though some of the estimated cost savings associated with utility ownership are found to be a result of shortcomings in utility analysis procedures and implicit risk shifting. This paper also discusses the comparative value of the federal production tax credit and renewable energy production incentive; estimates the financing premium paid by NUG wind owners compared to traditional gas-fired generation facilities; and explores the impact of electricity restructuring on financing.

  2. Cost-effectiveness of intensified versus conventional multifactorial intervention in type 2 diabetes: results and projections from the Steno-2 study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gaede, Peter; Valentine, William J; Palmer, Andrew J

    2008-01-01

    and account Danish-specific costs to project life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), and lifetime direct medical costs expressed in year 2005 Euros. Clinical and cost outcomes were projected over patient lifetimes and discounted at 3% annually. Sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS...... gained. This is considered a conservative estimate because accounting prescription of generic drugs and capturing indirect costs would further favor intensified therapy. CONCLUSIONS: From a health care payer perspective in Denmark, intensive therapy was more cost-effective than conventional treatment...

  3. The Process to Estimate Economical Benefits of Six Sigma Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Kosina

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to define the process for the continuous evaluation of the financial benefits during Six Sigma project life time. The financial criteria are critical success factors of a Six Sigma project. The process has been developed as part of the six sigma project monitoring in order to estimate proper allocation of the resources taking in account the expected project benefits as well as evaluationof real achievements. The evaluation of the finacial benefits based on the quality costs is not sufficient in the real life and has to be accomplished with key financial performance indicators of the business to visualize the results. The evaluation based on the savings seems to be too difficult especially for green belts. The early involvement of the finance department in the project definition as well as ongoing evaluation is key. The defined process has been applied to real business enviroment.

  4. Estimation of Costs and Durations of Construction of Urban Roads Using ANN and SVM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Peško

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Offer preparation has always been a specific part of a building process which has significant impact on company business. Due to the fact that income greatly depends on offer’s precision and the balance between planned costs, both direct and overheads, and wished profit, it is necessary to prepare a precise offer within required time and available resources which are always insufficient. The paper presents a research of precision that can be achieved while using artificial intelligence for estimation of cost and duration in construction projects. Both artificial neural networks (ANNs and support vector machines (SVM are analysed and compared. The best SVM has shown higher precision, when estimating costs, with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of 7.06% compared to the most precise ANNs which has achieved precision of 25.38%. Estimation of works duration has proved to be more difficult. The best MAPEs were 22.77% and 26.26% for SVM and ANN, respectively.

  5. 48 CFR 1852.216-74 - Estimated cost and fixed fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... and Clauses 1852.216-74 Estimated cost and fixed fee. As prescribed in 1816.307-70(b), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Fixed Fee (DEC 1991) The estimated cost of this contract is ______ exclusive of the fixed fee of ______. The total estimated cost and fixed fee is ______. (End of clause) [62...

  6. Cost of Capital Estimation for Highway Concessionaires in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian Vergara-Novoa

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present the cost of capital estimation for highway concessionaires in Chile. We estimated the cost of equity and the cost of debt and determined the capital structure for each one of twenty-four concessionaires that operate highways. We based our estimations on the developments of Sharpe (1964, Modigliani and Miller (1958, and Maquieira (2009, which were also compared with the Brusov et al. (2015 developments. We collected stock prices for different highway concessionaires around the world from Google Finance and Reuters’ websites in order to determine the Beta of equity using a representative company. After that, we estimated the cost of equity considering Hamada (1969 and a Capital Asset Pricing Model. Then, we estimated the cost of capital using the cost of debt and the capital structure of Chile’s highway concessionaires. With all above, we were able to determine the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC for highway concessions which ranges from 5.49 to 6.62%.

  7. Cost-estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R.

    1993-01-01

    Various advanced power plant concepts are currently under development. These include several advanced light water reactors as well as the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor and the advanced liquid-metal reactor. One measure-of the attractiveness of a new concept is cost. Invariably, the cost of a new type of power plant will be compared with other alternative forms of electric generation. In order to make reasonable comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules and assumptions must be applied when developing cost estimates. This paper describes the cost-estimate guidelines developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to be used in developing cost estimates for the advanced nuclear reactors and how these guidelines relate to the DOE cost verification process

  8. Analysis of Cost of Rework on Time and Cost Performance of Building Construction Projects in Abuja, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Chidiebere Eze

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Rework is a menace that leads to undesired and unnecessary loss of efforts, it degrades project cost and schedule performance of construction projects, both at design and construction phases. This study therefore, analyzed the impact of cost of rework on time and cost performance of building construction projects in Nigerian, using selected commercial building project within the country’s capital. A pro forma was adopted for gathering data on rework cost, project cost and time of selected building projects, while structured questionnaire was used to collect information on the likely measures for reducing rework incidences from construction professionals that were involved in the delivery of the identified projects. Regression analysis, relative importance index and Kruskal-Walis test were employed for data analysis. The study revealed a significant relationship between the cost of rework and initial and final project cost of delivering commercial buildings, as an average of 3.53% impact on the initial project cost, 46.60% contribution to cost overrun, and p-value of 0.000 was observed on all assessed projects. For the project delivery time, a significant relationship between the cost of rework and initial and final project duration, as an average of 7.35% impact on the initial delivery time, extra 19 days and p-value of 0.000 was observed on all assessed projects. Team building and education, management commitment, employee involvement, were some of the best possible measures to minimized rework problems.

  9. Power plant cost estimates put to the test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, J.H.

    1978-01-01

    The growth in standards for nuclear applications and the impact of these codes and standards on the cost of nuclear power plants is described. The preparation of cost estimates and reasons for apparent discrepancies are discussed. Consistent estimates of nuclear power plant costs have been prepared in the USA for over a decade. They show that the difference in capital costs between nuclear and coal fired plants is narrowing and that when total generating costs are calculated nuclear power is substantially cheaper. (UK)

  10. Aircraft bi-level life cycle cost estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, X.; Verhagen, W.J.C.; Curan, R.

    2015-01-01

    n an integrated aircraft design and analysis practice, Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is essential for decision making. The LCC of an aircraft is ordinarily partially estimated by emphasizing a specific cost type. However, an overview of the LCC including design and development cost, production cost,

  11. Estimating costs in the economic evaluation of medical technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luce, B R; Elixhauser, A

    1990-01-01

    The complexities and nuances of evaluating the costs associated with providing medical technologies are often underestimated by analysts engaged in economic evaluations. This article describes the theoretical underpinnings of cost estimation, emphasizing the importance of accounting for opportunity costs and marginal costs. The various types of costs that should be considered in an analysis are described; a listing of specific cost elements may provide a helpful guide to analysis. The process of identifying and estimating costs is detailed, and practical recommendations for handling the challenges of cost estimation are provided. The roles of sensitivity analysis and discounting are characterized, as are determinants of the types of costs to include in an analysis. Finally, common problems facing the analyst are enumerated with suggestions for managing these problems.

  12. Fuel Cell System for Transportation -- 2005 Cost Estimate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wheeler, D.

    2006-10-01

    Independent review report of the methodology used by TIAX to estimate the cost of producing PEM fuel cells using 2005 cell stack technology. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies Program Manager asked the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to commission an independent review of the 2005 TIAX cost analysis for fuel cell production. The NREL Systems Integrator is responsible for conducting independent reviews of progress toward meeting the DOE Hydrogen Program (the Program) technical targets. An important technical target of the Program is the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell cost in terms of dollars per kilowatt ($/kW). The Program's Multi-Year Program Research, Development, and Demonstration Plan established $125/kW as the 2005 technical target. Over the last several years, the Program has contracted with TIAX, LLC (TIAX) to produce estimates of the high volume cost of PEM fuel cell production for transportation use. Since no manufacturer is yet producing PEM fuel cells in the quantities needed for an initial hydrogen-based transportation economy, these estimates are necessary for DOE to gauge progress toward meeting its targets. For a PEM fuel cell system configuration developed by Argonne National Laboratory, TIAX estimated the total cost to be $108/kW, based on assumptions of 500,000 units per year produced with 2005 cell stack technology, vertical integration of cell stack manufacturing, and balance-of-plant (BOP) components purchased from a supplier network. Furthermore, TIAX conducted a Monte Carlo analysis by varying ten key parameters over a wide range of values and estimated with 98% certainty that the mean PEM fuel cell system cost would be below DOE's 2005 target of $125/kW. NREL commissioned DJW TECHNOLOGY, LLC to form an Independent Review Team (the Team) of industry fuel cell experts and to evaluate the cost estimation process and the results reported by TIAX. The results of

  13. Development of a simple estimation tool for LMFBR construction cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Kazuo; Kinoshita, Izumi

    1999-01-01

    A simple tool for estimating the construction costs of liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactors (LMFBRs), 'Simple Cost' was developed in this study. Simple Cost is based on a new estimation formula that can reduce the amount of design data required to estimate construction costs. Consequently, Simple cost can be used to estimate the construction costs of innovative LMFBR concepts for which detailed design has not been carried out. The results of test calculation show that Simple Cost provides cost estimations equivalent to those obtained with conventional methods within the range of plant power from 325 to 1500 MWe. Sensitivity analyses for typical design parameters were conducted using Simple Cost. The effects of four major parameters - reactor vessel diameter, core outlet temperature, sodium handling area and number of secondary loops - on the construction costs of LMFBRs were evaluated quantitatively. The results show that the reduction of sodium handling area is particularly effective in reducing construction costs. (author)

  14. Calculating the Unit Cost Factors for Decommissioning Cost Estimation of the Nuclear Research Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Kwan Seong; Lee, Dong Gyu; Jung, Chong Hun; Lee, Kune Woo

    2006-01-01

    The estimated decommissioning cost of nuclear research reactor is calculated by applying a unit cost factor-based engineering cost calculation method on which classification of decommissioning works fitted with the features and specifications of decommissioning objects and establishment of composition factors are based. Decommissioning cost of nuclear research reactor is composed of labor cost, equipment and materials cost. Labor cost of decommissioning costs in decommissioning works are calculated on the basis of working time consumed in decommissioning objects. In this paper, the unit cost factors and work difficulty factors which are needed to calculate the labor cost in estimating decommissioning cost of nuclear research reactor are derived and figured out.

  15. Simple steps help minimize costs, risks in project contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camps, J.A.

    1996-01-01

    Contrary to prevailing opinion, risks and project financing costs can be higher for lump sum (LS) project contracts than under reimbursable-type contracts. An element-by-element analysis of the risks and costs associated with a project enables investors to develop variations of reimbursable contracts. Project managers can use this three-step procedure, along with other recommendations, to measure the hidden project costs and risks associated with LS contracts. The author bases his conclusions on case studies of recent projects in the petroleum refining and petrochemical industries. The findings, however, are general enough to be applicable in other industrial sectors

  16. Estimating and understanding DOE waste management costs'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, J.S.; Sherick, M.J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines costs associated with cleaning up the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) nuclear facilities, with particular emphasis on the waste management program. Life-cycle waste management costs have been compiled and reported in the DOE Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR). Waste management costs are a critical issue for DOE because of the current budget constraints. The DOE sites are struggling to accomplish their environmental management objectives given funding scenarios that are well below anticipated waste management costs. Through the BEMR process, DOE has compiled complex-wide cleanup cost estimates and has begun analysis of these costs with respect to alternative waste management scenarios and policy strategies. From this analysis, DOE is attempting to identify the major cost drivers and prioritize environmental management activities to achieve maximum utilization of existing funding. This paper provides an overview of the methodology DOE has used to estimate and analyze some waste management costs, including the key data requirements and uncertainties

  17. An Overview Of Tool For Response Action Cost Estimating (TRACE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferries, S.R.; Klink, K.L.; Ostapkowicz, B.

    2012-01-01

    Tools and techniques that provide improved performance and reduced costs are important to government programs, particularly in current times. An opportunity for improvement was identified for preparation of cost estimates used to support the evaluation of response action alternatives. As a result, CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company has developed Tool for Response Action Cost Estimating (TRACE). TRACE is a multi-page Microsoft Excel(reg s ign) workbook developed to introduce efficiencies into the timely and consistent production of cost estimates for response action alternatives. This tool combines costs derived from extensive site-specific runs of commercially available remediation cost models with site-specific and estimator-researched and derived costs, providing the best estimating sources available. TRACE also provides for common quantity and key parameter links across multiple alternatives, maximizing ease of updating estimates and performing sensitivity analyses, and ensuring consistency.

  18. Support to LANL: Cost estimation. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    This report summarizes the activities and progress by ICF Kaiser Engineers conducted on behalf of Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL) for the US Department of Energy, Office of Waste Management (EM-33) in the area of improving methods for Cost Estimation. This work was conducted between October 1, 1992 and September 30, 1993. ICF Kaiser Engineers supported LANL in providing the Office of Waste Management with planning and document preparation services for a Cost and Schedule Estimating Guide (Guide). The intent of the Guide was to use Activity-Based Cost (ABC) estimation as a basic method in preparing cost estimates for DOE planning and budgeting documents, including Activity Data Sheets (ADSs), which form the basis for the Five Year Plan document. Prior to the initiation of the present contract with LANL, ICF Kaiser Engineers was tasked to initiate planning efforts directed toward a Guide. This work, accomplished from June to September, 1992, included visits to eight DOE field offices and consultation with DOE Headquarters staff to determine the need for a Guide, the desired contents of a Guide, and the types of ABC estimation methods and documentation requirements that would be compatible with current or potential practices and expertise in existence at DOE field offices and their contractors

  19. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of the City of Houston's 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA's Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  20. An estimate of the unit cost of road traffic collisions in South Africa for 1998

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schutte, IC

    2000-03-01

    Full Text Available evaluation of project proposals and it is essential that up-to-date information be available. The last South African study undertaken to estimate these costs was in 1992 using 1991 data. The occurrence of structural economic changes since that time have...

  1. A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foreman, Veronica L.; Le Moigne, Jacqueline; de Weck, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the limitations of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-theart in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority shortcomings within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities

  2. 48 CFR 1852.216-85 - Estimated cost and award fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... and Clauses 1852.216-85 Estimated cost and award fee. As prescribed in 1816.406-70(e), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Award Fee (SEP 1993) The estimated cost of this contract is $___. The... cost, base fee, and maximum award fee are $___. (End of clause) Alternate I (SEP 1993). As prescribed...

  3. Estimation of Externalities for Juragua Nuclear Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mora, H. R.; Carbonell, L. T.

    2002-01-01

    Estimation of externalities allows taking into account environmental impacts due to any activity in total costs calculation. In the present work, the external costs of electricity generation from nuclear energy were calculated considering three scenarios: normal operation (routine releases), accident situation and solid waste disposal. A comparison between these results and those obtained for electricity generation from fossil fuels was made. IAEA proposals of Simplified methodologies were used for externality calculations. The Juragua project was selected as a study case; it is based in two energetic blocks both PWR, VVER 440/318 type with a plant capacity of 417 MWe each. Four impact ways were considered for all scenarios: (1) Inhalation of radionuclides in the air, (2) External irradiation from radionuclides immersed in clouds, (3) External irradiation from deposited radionuclides and (4) Ingestion of radionuclides in agricultural products. Besides, two impact categories (local and regional) for all scenarios were considered. The total cost of externalities was 0.01425 c/kWh, value smaller than the one obtained for electricity generation from fossil fuel (0.256 c/kWh). For the normal operation scenario, the external cost calculated was 0.00112 c/kWh, for accident situation 0.01103 c/kWh, and for the solid wastes management scenario 0.0021 c/kWh. The high value obtained for solid waste disposal scenario is due to repository placement features. (author)

  4. Uncertainties in Early Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Process Design – A case study on biorefinery design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gurkan eSin

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early stage design is a challenging task. This is especially important in biorefinery research, where available information and experiences with new technologies is limited. A systematic methodology for uncertainty analysis of cost data is proposed that employs (a Bootstrapping as a regression method when cost data is available and (b the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data is not available. Four well-known models for early stage cost estimation are reviewed an analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early stage process design is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in cost estimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable robust decision making under uncertainties. One of the results using an order-of-magnitude estimate shows that the production of diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene are the most promising with economic risks of 0.24 MM$/a and 4.6 MM$/a due to uncertainties in cost estimations, respectively.

  5. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, C.R. II.

    1986-07-01

    To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies

  6. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, C.R. II.

    1987-07-01

    To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies

  7. Radium removal processes capital and operating cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, F.J.

    1979-09-01

    An estimate of the fixed capital and operating costs for two alternative processes for the removal of dissolved Ra-226 from uranium mill effluent in Elliot Lake, Ontario is presented. Process 1 consists of barium-radium coprecipitation followed by coagulation, flocculation and sedimentation. Process 2 consists of barium-radium coprecipitation followed by gravity media filtration, sand filter backwashing and sedimentation. Cost estimates were prepared for 18 different plant configurations designed to treat 1000 and 4000 imperial gallons per minute (ig/m) of effluent, 24 hrs per day, 7 days per week and 365 days per year with several equipment options. The estimated fixed capital costs for plants equipped with gravity filters were less than those equipped with circular clarifiers. The capital costs ranged from $552,000 with a flow rate of 1000 ig/m to $2,578,000 with a flow rate of 4000 ig/m. Estimated annual operating costs, based on a plant life of 10 years, ranged from $298,000 with a flow rate of 1000 ig/m to $1,061,000 with a flow rate of 4000 ig/m

  8. MONITORED GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY LIFE CYCLE COST ESTIMATE ASSUMPTIONS DOCUMENT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R.E. Sweeney

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost (LCC) estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA) , License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

  9. Monitored Geologic Repository Life Cycle Cost Estimate Assumptions Document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sweeney, R.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA), License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

  10. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R. II.

    1993-05-01

    Several advanced power plant concepts are currently under development. These include the Modular High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors, the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor and the Advanced Light Water Reactors. One measure of the attractiveness of a new concept is its cost. Invariably, the cost of a new type of power plant will be compared with other alternative forms of electrical generation. This report provides a common starting point, whereby the cost estimates for the various power plants to be considered are developed with common assumptions and ground rules. Comparisons can then be made on a consistent basis. This is the second update of these cost estimate guidelines. Changes have been made to make the guidelines more current (January 1, 1992) and in response to suggestions made as a result of the use of the previous report. The principal changes are that the reference site has been changed from a generic Northeast (Middletown) site to a more central site (EPRI's East/West Central site) and that reference bulk commodity prices and labor productivity rates have been added. This report is designed to provide a framework for the preparation and reporting of costs. The cost estimates will consist of the overnight construction cost, the total plant capital cost, the operation and maintenance costs, the fuel costs, decommissioning costs and the power production or busbar generation cost

  11. Conceptual Design and Cost Estimate of a Subsonic NASA Testbed Vehicle (NTV) for Aeronautics Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickol, Craig L.; Frederic, Peter

    2013-01-01

    A conceptual design and cost estimate for a subsonic flight research vehicle designed to support NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project goals is presented. To investigate the technical and economic feasibility of modifying an existing aircraft, a highly modified Boeing 717 was developed for maturation of technologies supporting the three ERA project goals of reduced fuel burn, noise, and emissions. This modified 717 utilizes midfuselage mounted modern high bypass ratio engines in conjunction with engine exhaust shielding structures to provide a low noise testbed. The testbed also integrates a natural laminar flow wing section and active flow control for the vertical tail. An eight year program plan was created to incrementally modify and test the vehicle, enabling the suite of technology benefits to be isolated and quantified. Based on the conceptual design and programmatic plan for this testbed vehicle, a full cost estimate of $526M was developed, representing then-year dollars at a 50% confidence level.

  12. UMTRA Project-Level Cost Reduction/Productivity Improvement Program manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-06-01

    Mission of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Cost Reduction/Productivity Improvement Program (CR/PIP) is to contribute to the UMTRA Project's environmental restoration mission by providing the means to achieve and recognize continuous improvements and cost savings. This manual includes program definition, description of UMTRA project organizational responsibilities and interfaces with existing project functions, guidance to contractors, and definition of project-level functions

  13. Computer programs for capital cost estimation, lifetime economic performance simulation, and computation of cost indexes for laser fusion and other advanced technology facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pendergrass, J.H.

    1978-01-01

    Three FORTRAN programs, CAPITAL, VENTURE, and INDEXER, have been developed to automate computations used in assessing the economic viability of proposed or conceptual laser fusion and other advanced-technology facilities, as well as conventional projects. The types of calculations performed by these programs are, respectively, capital cost estimation, lifetime economic performance simulation, and computation of cost indexes. The codes permit these three topics to be addressed with considerable sophistication commensurate with user requirements and available data

  14. Cost estimate of the Yucca Mountain repository based on the site characterization plan conceptual design: Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruer, E.R.; Fowler, M.E.; Rocha, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    This report of the life-cycle costs of a mined repository in tuff is based on the site characterization conceptual design and contains estimates of two methods of waste emplacement - vertical and horizontal. The life cycle of the repository progresses from design and construction to emplacement operations that last 25 years. When emplacement has ended, a caretaker period begins and continues until 50 years from emplacement of the first waste. The life of the repository concludes with closure and decommissioning, which includes backfilling and sealing the repository, decontaminating and razing the surface facilities, restoring the land to as near its original condition as possible, and marking the site. The estimates, developed for each phase of the life cycle of the repository, are based on January 1986 constant (unescalated) dollars and include an allowance for contingency. This report mainly comprises explanations of design and operating assumptions, estimating methods, exclusions, definition of cost accounts, calculating procedures, data sources, staffing and other qualifying remarks. Cost estimates are approximations of value and should not be construed as exact. The cost and staffing detail provided in this estimate is commensurate with the detail in the conceptual design

  15. Computerized cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base for fusion devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, W.R.; Rothe, K.E.

    1985-01-01

    Component design parameters (weight, surface area, etc.) and cost factors are input and direct and indirect costs are calculated. The cost data base file derived from actual cost experience within the fusion community and refined to be compatible with the spreadsheet costing approach is a catalog of cost coefficients, algorithms, and component costs arranged into data modules corresponding to specific components and/or subsystems. Each data module contains engineering, equipment, and installation labor cost data for different configurations and types of the specific component or subsystem. This paper describes the assumptions, definitions, methodology, and architecture incorporated in the development of the cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base, along with the type of input required and the output format

  16. Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Edwin B.; Wood, Darrell A.; Moore, Arlene A.; Bogart, Edward H.

    1986-01-01

    In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering

  17. Uncertainty quantification metrics for whole product life cycle cost estimates in aerospace innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwabe, O.; Shehab, E.; Erkoyuncu, J.

    2015-08-01

    The lack of defensible methods for quantifying cost estimate uncertainty over the whole product life cycle of aerospace innovations such as propulsion systems or airframes poses a significant challenge to the creation of accurate and defensible cost estimates. Based on the axiomatic definition of uncertainty as the actual prediction error of the cost estimate, this paper provides a comprehensive overview of metrics used for the uncertainty quantification of cost estimates based on a literature review, an evaluation of publicly funded projects such as part of the CORDIS or Horizon 2020 programs, and an analysis of established approaches used by organizations such NASA, the U.S. Department of Defence, the ESA, and various commercial companies. The metrics are categorized based on their foundational character (foundations), their use in practice (state-of-practice), their availability for practice (state-of-art) and those suggested for future exploration (state-of-future). Insights gained were that a variety of uncertainty quantification metrics exist whose suitability depends on the volatility of available relevant information, as defined by technical and cost readiness level, and the number of whole product life cycle phases the estimate is intended to be valid for. Information volatility and number of whole product life cycle phases can hereby be considered as defining multi-dimensional probability fields admitting various uncertainty quantification metric families with identifiable thresholds for transitioning between them. The key research gaps identified were the lacking guidance grounded in theory for the selection of uncertainty quantification metrics and lacking practical alternatives to metrics based on the Central Limit Theorem. An innovative uncertainty quantification framework consisting of; a set-theory based typology, a data library, a classification system, and a corresponding input-output model are put forward to address this research gap as the basis

  18. Cost estimating relationships for nuclear power plant operationa and maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowers, H.I.; Fuller, L.C.; Myers, M.L.

    1987-11-01

    Revised cost estimating relationships for 1987 are presented for estimating annual nonfuel operation and maintenance (O and M) costs for light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants, which update guidelines published previously in 1982. The purpose of these cost estimating relationships is for use in long range planning and evaluations of the economics of nuclear energy for electric power generation. A listing of a computer program, LWROM, implementing the cost estimating relationships and written in advanced BASIC for IBM personal computers, is included

  19. Valuing productivity costs in a changing macroeconomic environment: the estimation of colorectal cancer productivity costs using the friction cost approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanly, Paul; Koopmanschap, Marc; Sharp, Linda

    2016-06-01

    The friction cost approach (FCA) has been proposed as an alternative to the human capital approach for productivity cost valuation. However, FCA estimates are context dependent and influenced by extant macroeconomic conditions. We applied the FCA to estimate colorectal cancer labor productivity costs and assessed the impact of a changing macroeconomic environment on these estimates. Data from colorectal cancer survivors (n = 159) derived from a postal survey undertaken in Ireland March 2010 to January 2011 were combined with national wage data, population-level survival data, and occupation-specific friction periods to calculate temporary and permanent disability, and premature mortality costs using the FCA. The effects of changing labor market conditions between 2006 and 2013 on the friction period were modeled in scenario analyses. Costs were valued in 2008 euros. In the base-case, the total FCA per-person productivity cost for incident colorectal cancer patients of working age at diagnosis was €8543. In scenario 1 (a 2.2 % increase in unemployment), the fall in the friction period caused total productivity costs to decrease by up to 18 % compared to base-case estimates. In scenario 2 (a 9.2 % increase in unemployment), the largest decrease in productivity cost was up to 65 %. Adjusting for the vacancy rate reduced the effect of unemployment on the cost results. The friction period used in calculating labor productivity costs greatly affects the derived estimates; this friction period requires reassessment following changes in labor market conditions. The influence of changes in macroeconomic conditions on FCA-derived cost estimates may be substantial.

  20. ICPP calcined solids storage facility closure study. Volume II: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-02-01

    This document contains Volume II of the Closure Study for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant Calcined Solids Storage Facility. This volume contains draft information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the four options described in Volume I: (1) Risk-Based Clean Closure; NRC Class C fill, (2) Risk-Based Clean Closure; Clean fill, (3) Closure to landfill Standards; NRC Class C fill, and (4) Closure to Landfill Standards; Clean fill

  1. ICPP calcined solids storage facility closure study. Volume II: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-02-01

    This document contains Volume II of the Closure Study for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant Calcined Solids Storage Facility. This volume contains draft information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the four options described in Volume I: (1) Risk-Based Clean Closure; NRC Class C fill, (2) Risk-Based Clean Closure; Clean fill, (3) Closure to landfill Standards; NRC Class C fill, and (4) Closure to Landfill Standards; Clean fill.

  2. Estimated Annual Maintenance Costs for Educational Facilities in Eritrea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vagnby, Bo Hellisen

    Global estimated annual costs for undertaking basic maintenance of all educational facilities in Eritrea.......Global estimated annual costs for undertaking basic maintenance of all educational facilities in Eritrea....

  3. Estimating the opportunity costs of bed-days.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandmann, Frank G; Robotham, Julie V; Deeny, Sarah R; Edmunds, W John; Jit, Mark

    2018-03-01

    Opportunity costs of bed-days are fundamental to understanding the value of healthcare systems. They greatly influence burden of disease estimations and economic evaluations involving stays in healthcare facilities. However, different estimation techniques employ assumptions that differ crucially in whether to consider the value of the second-best alternative use forgone, of any available alternative use, or the value of the actually chosen alternative. Informed by economic theory, this paper provides a taxonomic framework of methodologies for estimating the opportunity costs of resources. This taxonomy is then applied to bed-days by classifying existing approaches accordingly. We highlight differences in valuation between approaches and the perspective adopted, and we use our framework to appraise the assumptions and biases underlying the standard approaches that have been widely adopted mostly unquestioned in the past, such as the conventional use of reference costs and administrative accounting data. Drawing on these findings, we present a novel approach for estimating the opportunity costs of bed-days in terms of health forgone for the second-best patient, but expressed monetarily. This alternative approach effectively re-connects to the concept of choice and explicitly considers net benefits. It is broadly applicable across settings and for other resources besides bed-days. © 2017 The Authors Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R. II.

    1990-03-01

    To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies. 10 refs., 8 figs., 32 tabs

  5. A Review of the Decommissioning Plan and Cost Estimate for the Studsvik Rock Facility (AM) for the Storage of Low and Intermediate Level Wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varley, Geoff

    2004-03-01

    The AM facility is a storage facility for packaged wastes that have been conditioned at the Studsvik site. It is located inside a rock mass on the Studsvik industrial site. The task of the facility is to store the wastes on an interim basis before dispatch to a repository. The waste packages sentenced for storage in AM include: Low-level waste (LLW) packages that do not need any special protection against ionising radiation; Intermediate-level waste (ILW) packages that must be handled with a protective shield and using remote controlled equipment. In all cases the waste packages delivered to AM do not have any surface radioactive contamination. To date no release of contamination has been known to occur. The AM decommissioning cost estimate prepared for SVAFO addresses a Main Case (all wastes removed) and an Alternate Case (in which the scope of removal of equipment is unclear). The cost estimates for the Main Case and the Alternate case are MSEK 16.8 and MSEK 10.0 respectively. The overall program, comprising preparation, dismantling and concluding work, is projected to take 24 months. There are a number of aspects of the program that are not clear in the AB SVAFO report. For example, the assumed route for the disposition of wastes generated in dismantling process equipment and building materials is unclear. In addition, the detailed schedule of program items (Section A items in cost estimate) is somewhat confusing with the possibility that several cost elements have been omitted. AM normalised unit costs for selected, individual decommissioning activities have been derived and compared with relevant benchmark data from other recent decommissioning cost estimate analyses performed for SKI. Taking into account that there is very good access at AM, the results of these analyses give some comfort that the AM equipment dismantling estimate is in the correct ballpark. Regarding resources needed for project planning and management, the AM ratio of man-hours to project

  6. Development of subcontractor indirect cost and other direct cost at the DOE Fernald Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cossman, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    The Fernald Environmental Restoration Management Corporation (FERMCO) took great strides in the development of cost estimates at Fernald. There have been many opportunities to improve on how the policies and procedures pertaining to cost estimates were to be implemented. As FERMCO took over the existing Fernald facility, the Project Controls Division began to format the estimating procedures and tools to do business at Fernald. The Estimating Department looked at the problems that pre-existed at the site. One of the key problems that FERMCO encountered was how to summarized the direct and indirect accounts of each subcontracted estimate. Direct costs were broken down by prime and sub-prime accounts. This presented a level of detail that had not been experienced at the site before; it also created many issues concerning accounts and definitions to be applied to ''all other accounts associated with a project.'' Existing subcontract indirect cost accounts were reviewed from existing historical estimates. It was found that some were very detailed and some were not. The Estimating Department was given the task of standardizing the accounts and percentages for each of the subcontractor indirect costs. Then, as the project progressed, the percentages could be revised with actual estimates, subcontract comparisons, or with level of effort (LOE) accounts, which would represent qualified people assigned a task for the completion of each project. The approach is to assign particular employees to perform a specific task within a project from start to finish, and then to reassign the individual(s) to a new project (if it was available) integrating the expertise available with the skills required by the other operable units

  7. Robust Optimization for Time-Cost Tradeoff Problem in Construction Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Ming; Wu, Guangdong

    2014-01-01

    Construction projects are generally subject to uncertainty, which influences the realization of time-cost tradeoff in project management. This paper addresses a time-cost tradeoff problem under uncertainty, in which activities in projects can be executed in different construction modes corresponding to specified time and cost with interval uncertainty. Based on multiobjective robust optimization method, a robust optimization model for time-cost tradeoff problem is developed. In order to illus...

  8. CONTAMINATED SOIL VOLUME ESTIMATE TRACKING METHODOLOGY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durham, L.A.; Johnson, R.L.; Rieman, C.; Kenna, T.; Pilon, R.

    2003-01-01

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is conducting a cleanup of radiologically contaminated properties under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). The largest cost element for most of the FUSRAP sites is the transportation and disposal of contaminated soil. Project managers and engineers need an estimate of the volume of contaminated soil to determine project costs and schedule. Once excavation activities begin and additional remedial action data are collected, the actual quantity of contaminated soil often deviates from the original estimate, resulting in cost and schedule impacts to the project. The project costs and schedule need to be frequently updated by tracking the actual quantities of excavated soil and contaminated soil remaining during the life of a remedial action project. A soil volume estimate tracking methodology was developed to provide a mechanism for project managers and engineers to create better project controls of costs and schedule. For the FUSRAP Linde site, an estimate of the initial volume of in situ soil above the specified cleanup guidelines was calculated on the basis of discrete soil sample data and other relevant data using indicator geostatistical techniques combined with Bayesian analysis. During the remedial action, updated volume estimates of remaining in situ soils requiring excavation were calculated on a periodic basis. In addition to taking into account the volume of soil that had been excavated, the updated volume estimates incorporated both new gamma walkover surveys and discrete sample data collected as part of the remedial action. A civil survey company provided periodic estimates of actual in situ excavated soil volumes. By using the results from the civil survey of actual in situ volumes excavated and the updated estimate of the remaining volume of contaminated soil requiring excavation, the USACE Buffalo District was able to forecast and update project costs and schedule. The soil volume

  9. The process of life-cycle cost analysis on the Fernald Environmental Management Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, D.Y.; Jacoboski, J.A.; Fisher, L.A.; Beirne, P.J.

    1993-01-01

    The Estimating Services Department of the Fernald Environmental Restoration Management Corporation (FERMCO) is formalizing the process of life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) for the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP). The LCCA process is based on the concepts, principles, and guidelines described by applicable Department of Energy's (DOE) orders, pertinent published literature, and the National Bureau of Standards handbook 135. LCC analyses will be performed following a ten-step process on the FEMP at the earliest possible decision point to support the selection of the least-cost alternatives for achieving the FERMCO mission

  10. The environmental cost in the mining projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaviria Rivera Antonio

    1992-01-01

    To evaluate and calculate the mining project, Environmental costs, besides the proper variables concerning the project. It is necessary to incorporate the distinct interrelations among the mining operation with the local and regional biophysics and. socio-economic environments existing in the project's area of influence

  11. Frequent Change Request From User to Handle Cost on Project in Agile Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shariq Aziz Butt

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Agile has invented to improve and overcome Draw backs of software development. Now agile model is using in software development very vastly. It is facilitating the developer and client both very resourcefully. It is getting popularity than the other Software Development Life Cycle models because of its characteristics and most owing to allow change request at any level of the project. The client in the software development is the main part and asset of the company. The software house always focuses on its client because client is an asset. Thus developer has major concern with the client’s requirement and change request. Agile is getting popularity because of allow change request at any stage of project, on the other hand it is also a drawback in agile model because when project starts the project’s completion time and cost is decided. But due to frequent change of requests come from client the cost and completion time both increase eventually which is not good for software house’s business and reputation. So there is need a cost and time estimation technique to solve change request issue in agile model.

  12. Estimating the economic cost of disability in Ireland

    OpenAIRE

    Cullinan, John; Gannon, Brenda; Lyons, Seán

    2008-01-01

    Addressing the extra economic costs of disability seems a logical step towards alleviating elements of social exclusion for people with disabilities. This paper estimates the economic cost of disability in Ireland in terms of the additional spending needs that arise due to disability. It defines and estimates models of the private costs borne by families with individuals who have a disability in Ireland when compared to the wider population, both in general and by severity of illness. Our mod...

  13. Cost Model for Digital Preservation: Cost of Digital Migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2011-01-01

    The Danish Ministry of Culture has funded a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project was to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities and to provide a basis...... for comparing and estimating future cost requirements for digital preservation. In this study we describe an activity-based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the Open Archice Information System (OAIS) Reference Model. Within this framework, which we denote the Cost Model for Digital...... Preservation (CMDP), the focus is on costing the functional entity Preservation Planning from the OAIS and digital migration activities. In order to estimate these costs we have identified cost-critical activities by analysing the functions in the OAIS model and the flows between them. The analysis has been...

  14. A Probabilistic Cost Estimation Model for Unexploded Ordnance Removal

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Poppe, Peter

    1999-01-01

    ...) contaminated sites that the services must decontaminate. Existing models for estimating the cost of UXO removal often require a high level of expertise and provide only a point estimate for the costs...

  15. 40 CFR 261.142 - Cost estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... hazardous waste, and the potential cost of closing the facility as a treatment, storage, and disposal... facility. (3) The cost estimate may not incorporate any salvage value that may be realized with the sale of... no later than 30 days after a change in a facility's operating plan or design that would increase the...

  16. Influence of the economy crisis on project cost management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simankina, Tatyana; Ćetković, Jasmina; Verstina, Natalia; Evseev, Evgeny

    2017-10-01

    Economy crisis significantly affects primarily the project cost management. The article considers the problems of project management in the field of housing under conditions of economy crisis. Project budgets are reduced, their mutual interference grows and framework of risks changes. Apparently, specific approaches are required to be developed to optimize the expenses and guarantee the project implementation within the approved budget. There is considered domestic and foreign experience in terms of project cost management with involvement of BIM technologies.

  17. 16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. 305.5... RULE CONCERNING DISCLOSURES REGARDING ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND WATER USE OF CERTAIN HOME APPLIANCES AND... § 305.5 Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

  18. The cost of obesity for nonbariatric inpatient operative procedures in the United States: national cost estimates obese versus nonobese patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Rodney J; Moroney, Jolene R; Berne, Thomas V

    2013-10-01

    To evaluate the economic impact of obesity on hospital costs associated with the commonest nonbariatric, nonobstetrical surgical procedures. Health care costs and obesity are both rising. Nonsurgical costs associated with obesity are well documented but surgical costs are not. National cost estimates were calculated from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database, 2005-2009, for the highest volume nonbariatric nonobstetric procedures. Obesity was identified from the HCUP-NIS severity data file comorbidity index. Costs for obese patients were compared with those for nonobese patients. To control for medical complexity, each obese patient was matched one-to-one with a nonobese patient using age, sex, race, and 28 comorbid defined elements. Of 2,309,699 procedures, 439,8129 (19%) were successfully matched into 2 medically equal groups (obese vs nonobese). Adjusted total hospital costs incurred by obese patients were 3.7% higher with a significantly (P cost of $648 (95% confidence interval [CI]: $556-$736) compared with nonobese patients. Of the 2 major components of hospital costs, length of stay was significantly increased in obese patients (mean difference = 0.0253 days, 95% CI: 0.0225-0.0282) and resource utilization determined by costs per day were greater in obese patients due to an increased number of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures needed postoperatively (odds ratio [OR] = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.93-0.96). Postoperative complications were equivalent in both groups (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.93-1.02). Annual national hospital expenditures for the largest volume surgical procedures is an estimated $160 million higher in obese than in a comparative group of nonobese patients.

  19. Estimating productivity costs using the friction cost approach in practice: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kigozi, Jesse; Jowett, Sue; Lewis, Martyn; Barton, Pelham; Coast, Joanna

    2016-01-01

    The choice of the most appropriate approach to valuing productivity loss has received much debate in the literature. The friction cost approach has been proposed as a more appropriate alternative to the human capital approach when valuing productivity loss, although its application remains limited. This study reviews application of the friction cost approach in health economic studies and examines how its use varies in practice across different country settings. A systematic review was performed to identify economic evaluation studies that have estimated productivity costs using the friction cost approach and published in English from 1996 to 2013. A standard template was developed and used to extract information from studies meeting the inclusion criteria. The search yielded 46 studies from 12 countries. Of these, 28 were from the Netherlands. Thirty-five studies reported the length of friction period used, with only 16 stating explicitly the source of the friction period. Nine studies reported the elasticity correction factor used. The reported friction cost approach methods used to derive productivity costs varied in quality across studies from different countries. Few health economic studies have estimated productivity costs using the friction cost approach. The estimation and reporting of productivity costs using this method appears to differ in quality by country. The review reveals gaps and lack of clarity in reporting of methods for friction cost evaluation. Generating reporting guidelines and country-specific parameters for the friction cost approach is recommended if increased application and accuracy of the method is to be realized.

  20. Robust Optimization for Time-Cost Tradeoff Problem in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Construction projects are generally subject to uncertainty, which influences the realization of time-cost tradeoff in project management. This paper addresses a time-cost tradeoff problem under uncertainty, in which activities in projects can be executed in different construction modes corresponding to specified time and cost with interval uncertainty. Based on multiobjective robust optimization method, a robust optimization model for time-cost tradeoff problem is developed. In order to illustrate the robust model, nondominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II is modified to solve the project example. The results show that, by means of adjusting the time and cost robust coefficients, the robust Pareto sets for time-cost tradeoff can be obtained according to different acceptable risk level, from which the decision maker could choose the preferred construction alternative.

  1. Method for developing cost estimates for generic regulatory requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    The NRC has established a practice of performing regulatory analyses, reflecting costs as well as benefits, of proposed new or revised generic requirements. A method had been developed to assist the NRC in preparing the types of cost estimates required for this purpose and for assigning priorities in the resolution of generic safety issues. The cost of a generic requirement is defined as the net present value of total lifetime cost incurred by the public, industry, and government in implementing the requirement for all affected plants. The method described here is for commercial light-water-reactor power plants. Estimating the cost for a generic requirement involves several steps: (1) identifying the activities that must be carried out to fully implement the requirement, (2) defining the work packages associated with the major activities, (3) identifying the individual elements of cost for each work package, (4) estimating the magnitude of each cost element, (5) aggregating individual plant costs over the plant lifetime, and (6) aggregating all plant costs and generic costs to produce a total, national, present value of lifetime cost for the requirement. The method developed addresses all six steps. In this paper, we discuss on the first three

  2. Innovation in the pharmaceutical industry: New estimates of R&D costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMasi, Joseph A; Grabowski, Henry G; Hansen, Ronald W

    2016-05-01

    The research and development costs of 106 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug and biologics development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per approved new compound is $1395 million (2013 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 10.5% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of $2558 million (2013 dollars). When compared to the results of the previous study in this series, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 8.5% above general price inflation. Adding an estimate of post-approval R&D costs increases the cost estimate to $2870 million (2013 dollars). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Estimating pharmacy level prescription drug acquisition costs for third-party reimbursement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreling, D H; Kirk, K W

    1986-07-01

    Accurate payment for the acquisition costs of drug products dispensed is an important consideration in a third-party prescription drug program. Two alternative methods of estimating these costs among pharmacies were derived and compared. First, pharmacists were surveyed to determine the purchase discounts offered to them by wholesalers. A 10.00% modal and 11.35% mean discount resulted for 73 responding pharmacists. Second, cost-plus percents derived from gross profit margins of wholesalers were calculated and applied to wholesaler product costs to estimate pharmacy level acquisition costs. Cost-plus percents derived from National Median and Southwestern Region wholesaler figures were 9.27% and 10.10%, respectively. A comparison showed the two methods of estimating acquisition costs would result in similar acquisition cost estimates. Adopting a cost-plus estimating approach is recommended because it avoids potential pricing manipulations by wholesalers and manufacturers that would negate improvements in drug product reimbursement accuracy.

  4. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles unique cost estimating requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malone, P.; Apgar, H.; Stukes, S.; Sterk, S.

    Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), also referred to as drones, are aerial platforms that fly without a human pilot onboard. UAVs are controlled autonomously by a computer in the vehicle or under the remote control of a pilot stationed at a fixed ground location. There are a wide variety of drone shapes, sizes, configurations, complexities, and characteristics. Use of these devices by the Department of Defense (DoD), NASA, civil and commercial organizations continues to grow. UAVs are commonly used for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR). They are also use for combat operations, and civil applications, such as firefighting, non-military security work, surveillance of infrastructure (e.g. pipelines, power lines and country borders). UAVs are often preferred for missions that require sustained persistence (over 4 hours in duration), or are “ too dangerous, dull or dirty” for manned aircraft. Moreover, they can offer significant acquisition and operations cost savings over traditional manned aircraft. Because of these unique characteristics and missions, UAV estimates require some unique estimating methods. This paper describes a framework for estimating UAV systems total ownership cost including hardware components, software design, and operations. The challenge of collecting data, testing the sensitivities of cost drivers, and creating cost estimating relationships (CERs) for each key work breakdown structure (WBS) element is discussed. The autonomous operation of UAVs is especially challenging from a software perspective.

  5. Oil and gas pipeline construction cost analysis and developing regression models for cost estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaduri, Ravi Kiran

    In this study, cost data for 180 pipelines and 136 compressor stations have been analyzed. On the basis of the distribution analysis, regression models have been developed. Material, Labor, ROW and miscellaneous costs make up the total cost of a pipeline construction. The pipelines are analyzed based on different pipeline lengths, diameter, location, pipeline volume and year of completion. In a pipeline construction, labor costs dominate the total costs with a share of about 40%. Multiple non-linear regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of pipelines for various cross-sectional areas, lengths and locations. The Compressor stations are analyzed based on the capacity, year of completion and location. Unlike the pipeline costs, material costs dominate the total costs in the construction of compressor station, with an average share of about 50.6%. Land costs have very little influence on the total costs. Similar regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of compressor station for various capacities and locations.

  6. Cost Estimation for Research Reactor Decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    One of the IAEA's statutory objectives is to 'seek to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world'. One way this objective is achieved is through the publication of a range of technical series. Two of these are the IAEA Nuclear Energy Series and the IAEA Safety Standards Series. According to Article III.A.6 of the IAEA Statute, the safety standards establish 'standards of safety for protection of health and minimization of danger to life and property.' The safety standards include the Safety Fundamentals, Safety Requirements and Safety Guides. These standards are written primarily in a regulatory style, and are binding on the IAEA for its own programmes. The principal users are the regulatory bodies in Member States and other national authorities. The IAEA Nuclear Energy Series comprises reports designed to encourage and assist R and D on, and application of, nuclear energy for peaceful uses. This includes practical examples to be used by owners and operators of utilities in Member States, implementing organizations, academia, and government officials, among others. This information is presented in guides, reports on technology status and advances, and best practices for peaceful uses of nuclear energy based on inputs from international experts. The IAEA Nuclear Energy Series complements the IAEA Safety Standards Series. The purpose of this publication is to develop a costing methodology and a software tool in order to support cost estimation for research reactor decommissioning. The costing methodology is intended for the preliminary cost estimation stages for research reactor decommissioning with limited inventory data and other input data available. Existing experience in decommissioning costing is considered. As the basis for the cost calculation structure, the costing model uses the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC) that is recommended by the IAEA, the Organisation for

  7. How much does it cost? The LIFE Project - Costing Models for Digital Curation and Preservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Davies

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Digital preservation is concerned with the long-term safekeeping of electronic resources. How can we be confident of their permanence, if we do not know the cost of preservation? The LIFE (Lifecycle Information for E-Literature Project has made a major step forward in understanding the long-term costs in this complex area. The LIFE Project has developed a methodology to model the digital lifecycle and to calculate the costs of preserving digital information for the next 5, 10 or 100 years. National and higher education (HE libraries can now apply this process and plan effectively for the preservation of their digital collections. Based on previous work undertaken on the lifecycles of paper-based materials, the LIFE Project created a lifecycle model and applied it to real-life digital collections across a diverse subject range. Three case studies examined the everyday operations, processes and costs involved in their respective activities. The results were then used to calculate the direct costs for each element of the digital lifecycle. The Project has made major advances in costing preservation activities, as well as making detailed costs of real digital preservation activities available. The second phase of LIFE (LIFE2, which recently started, aims to refine the lifecycle methodology and to add a greater range and breadth to the project with additional exemplar case studies.

  8. Estimating the mental health costs of racial discrimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanuel Elias

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Racial discrimination is a pervasive social problem in several advanced countries such as the U.S., U.K., and Australia. Public health research also indicates a range of associations between exposure to racial discrimination and negative health, particularly, mental health including depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD. However, the direct negative health impact of racial discrimination has not been costed so far although economists have previously estimated indirect non-health related productivity costs. In this study, we estimate the burden of disease due to exposure to racial discrimination and measure the cost of this exposure. Methods Using prevalence surveys and data on the association of racial discrimination with health outcomes from a global meta-analysis, we apply a cost of illness method to measure the impact of racial discrimination. This estimate indicates the direct health cost attributable to racial discrimination and we convert the estimates to monetary values based on conventional parameters. Results Racial discrimination costs the Australian economy 235,452 in disability adjusted life years lost, equivalent to $37.9 billion per annum, roughly 3.02% of annual gross domestic product (GDP over 2001–11, indicating a sizeable loss for the economy. Conclusion Substantial cost is incurred due to increased prevalence of racial discrimination as a result of its association with negative health outcomes (e.g. depression, anxiety and PTSD. This implies that potentially significant cost savings can be made through measures that target racial discrimination. Our research contributes to the debate on the social impact of racial discrimination, with implications for policies and efforts addressing it.

  9. Cost estimating Brayton and Stirling engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortgang, H. R.

    1980-01-01

    Brayton and Stirling engines were analyzed for cost and selling price for production quantities ranging from 1000 to 400,000 units per year. Parts and components were subjected to indepth scrutiny to determine optimum manufacturing processes coupled with make or buy decisions on materials and small parts. Tooling and capital equipment costs were estimated for each detail and/or assembly. For low annual production volumes, the Brayton engine appears to have a lower cost and selling price than the Stirling Engine. As annual production quantities increase, the Stirling becomes a lower cost engine than the Brayton. Both engines could benefit cost wise if changes were made in materials, design and manufacturing process as annual production quantities increase.

  10. A study of the planned value estimation method for developing earned value management system in the nuclear power plant construction project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, S.H.; Moon, B.S., E-mail: gustblast@khnp.co.kr, E-mail: moonbs@khnp.co.kr [Korea Hydro & Nuclear power co.,Ltd., Central Research Inst., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, J.H., E-mail: ljh@kkprotech.com [Kong Kwan Protech Co.,Ltd., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-07-01

    The Earned Value Management System (EVMS) is a project management technique for measuring project performance and progress, and then forward projection through the integrated management and control of cost and schedule. This research reviewed the concept of the EVMS method, and proposes two Planned Value estimation methods for the potential application to succeeding NPP construction projects by using the historical data from the proceeding NPP projects. This paper is to introduce the solution for the problems caused by the absence of relevant management system incorporating schedule and cost, which has arisen as repeated issues in NPP construction project management. (author)

  11. A study of the planned value estimation method for developing earned value management system in the nuclear power plant construction project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, S.H.; Moon, B.S.; Lee, J.H.

    2014-01-01

    The Earned Value Management System (EVMS) is a project management technique for measuring project performance and progress, and then forward projection through the integrated management and control of cost and schedule. This research reviewed the concept of the EVMS method, and proposes two Planned Value estimation methods for the potential application to succeeding NPP construction projects by using the historical data from the proceeding NPP projects. This paper is to introduce the solution for the problems caused by the absence of relevant management system incorporating schedule and cost, which has arisen as repeated issues in NPP construction project management. (author)

  12. Cost estimation in software engineering projects with web components development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier de Andrés

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Existen multitud de modelos propuestos para la predicción de co stes en proyectos de software, al gunos orientados específicamen te para proyectos Web. Este trabajo analiza si los modelos específicos para proyectos Web están justifi cados, examinando el comportami ento diferencial de los costes entre proyectos de desarrollo softwar e Web y no Web. Se analizan dos aspectos del cálculo de costes: las deseconomías de escala, y el im pacto de algunas características de estos proyectos que son utilizadas como cost drivers. Se en uncian dos hipótesis: (a en estos proyect os las deseconomías de escala so n mayores y (b el incremento de coste que provocan los cost dr ivers es menor para los proyectos Web. Se contrastaron estas hipótesis a nalizando un conjunto de proyectos reales. Los resultados sugie ren que ambas hipótesis se cumplen. Por lo tanto, la principal contribu ción a la literatura de esta inv estigación es que el desarrollo de modelos específicos para los proyectos Web está justificado.

  13. Estimation of costs for applications of remediation technologies for the Department of Energy's Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villegas, A.J.; Hansen, R.I.; Humphreys, K.K.; Paananen, J.M.; Gildea, L.F.

    1994-01-01

    The Programmatic Environmental impact Statement (PEIS) being developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) for environmental restoration (ER) and waste management (WM) activities expected to be carried out across the DOE's nationwide complex of facilities is assessing the impacts of removing, transporting, treating, storing, and disposing of waste from these ER and WM activities. Factors being considered include health and safety impacts to the public and to workers, impacts on the environment, costs and socio-economic impacts, and near-term and residual risk during those ER and WM operations. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the methodology developed specifically for the PEIS to estimate costs associated with the deployment and application of individual remediation technologies. These individual costs are used in developing order-of-magnitude cost estimates for the total remediation activities. Costs are developed on a per-unit-of-material-to-be-treated basis (i.e., $/m 3 ) to accommodate remediation projects of varying sizes. The primary focus of this cost-estimating effort was the development of capital and operating unit cost factors based on the amount of primary media to be removed, handled, and treated. The unit costs for individual treatment technologies were developed using information from a variety of sources, mainly from periodicals, EPA documentation, handbooks, vendor contacts, and cost models. The unit cost factors for individual technologies were adjusted to 1991 dollars

  14. Categorization of potential project cost overrun factors in construction industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karunakaran, P.; Abdullah, A. H.; Nagapan, S.; Sohu, S.; Kasvar, K. K.

    2018-04-01

    Cost overrun has been severely hit down the economy and reputations for many construction industry around the world. Many project management tools developed to control the budget of a project. However, the cost management is still considered poor as there are many cost overrun issues occurred in the construction industry. Thus, this paper aims to identify and cluster the potential construction project cost overrun factors according to their originating groups using the thematic approach. Basically, through literature review, all the potential factors that may cause cost overrun were screened thoroughly before they were clustered into seven (7) groups of the originating factors, namely project, contract, client, contractor, consultant, labour and external. Each potential factor was explained clearly with some examples based on the Malaysian case studies to illustrate the cost overrun scenario. These findings may aid in the future to highlight on how to mitigate the critical potential factors of cost overrun to reduce or overcome its impact on all the stakeholders involved.

  15. Uncertainties in Early-Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Process Design – A Case Study on Biorefinery Design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheali, Peam; Gernaey, Krist V.; Sin, Gürkan

    2015-01-01

    Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales, and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early-stage design is a challenging task, which is especially relevant in biorefinery research where information about new technologies and experience with new technologies is limited. A systematic methodology for uncertainty analysis of cost data is proposed that employs: (a) bootstrapping as a regression method when cost data are available; and, (b) the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data are not available. Four well-known models for early-stage cost estimation are reviewed and analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early-stage process design is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in cost estimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is indeed found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable robust decision-making under uncertainties. One of the results using order-of-magnitude estimates shows that the production of diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene are the most promising with the lowest economic risks (among the alternatives considered) of 0.24 MM$/a and 4.6 MM$/a, respectively.

  16. Uncertainties in Early-Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Process Design – A Case Study on Biorefinery Design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheali, Peam; Gernaey, Krist V.; Sin, Gürkan, E-mail: gsi@kt.dtu.dk [Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark)

    2015-02-06

    Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales, and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early-stage design is a challenging task, which is especially relevant in biorefinery research where information about new technologies and experience with new technologies is limited. A systematic methodology for uncertainty analysis of cost data is proposed that employs: (a) bootstrapping as a regression method when cost data are available; and, (b) the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data are not available. Four well-known models for early-stage cost estimation are reviewed and analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early-stage process design is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in cost estimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is indeed found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable robust decision-making under uncertainties. One of the results using order-of-magnitude estimates shows that the production of diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene are the most promising with the lowest economic risks (among the alternatives considered) of 0.24 MM$/a and 4.6 MM$/a, respectively.

  17. 48 CFR 1852.216-84 - Estimated cost and incentive fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Provisions and Clauses 1852.216-84 Estimated cost and incentive fee. As prescribed in 1816.406-70(d), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Incentive Fee (OCT 1996) The target cost of this contract is $___. The target fee of this contract is $___. The total target cost and target fee as contemplated by the...

  18. Estimating the Cost of Providing Foundational Public Health Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamaril, Cezar Brian C; Mays, Glen P; Branham, Douglas Keith; Bekemeier, Betty; Marlowe, Justin; Timsina, Lava

    2017-12-28

    To estimate the cost of resources required to implement a set of Foundational Public Health Services (FPHS) as recommended by the Institute of Medicine. A stochastic simulation model was used to generate probability distributions of input and output costs across 11 FPHS domains. We used an implementation attainment scale to estimate costs of fully implementing FPHS. We use data collected from a diverse cohort of 19 public health agencies located in three states that implemented the FPHS cost estimation methodology in their agencies during 2014-2015. The average agency incurred costs of $48 per capita implementing FPHS at their current attainment levels with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 16 percent. Achieving full FPHS implementation would require $82 per capita (CV=19 percent), indicating an estimated resource gap of $34 per capita. Substantial variation in costs exists across communities in resources currently devoted to implementing FPHS, with even larger variation in resources needed for full attainment. Reducing geographic inequities in FPHS may require novel financing mechanisms and delivery models that allow health agencies to have robust roles within the health system and realize a minimum package of public health services for the nation. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  19. Comparing Methods for Estimating Direct Costs of Adverse Drug Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyllensten, Hanna; Jönsson, Anna K; Hakkarainen, Katja M; Svensson, Staffan; Hägg, Staffan; Rehnberg, Clas

    2017-12-01

    To estimate how direct health care costs resulting from adverse drug events (ADEs) and cost distribution are affected by methodological decisions regarding identification of ADEs, assigning relevant resource use to ADEs, and estimating costs for the assigned resources. ADEs were identified from medical records and diagnostic codes for a random sample of 4970 Swedish adults during a 3-month study period in 2008 and were assessed for causality. Results were compared for five cost evaluation methods, including different methods for identifying ADEs, assigning resource use to ADEs, and for estimating costs for the assigned resources (resource use method, proportion of registered cost method, unit cost method, diagnostic code method, and main diagnosis method). Different levels of causality for ADEs and ADEs' contribution to health care resource use were considered. Using the five methods, the maximum estimated overall direct health care costs resulting from ADEs ranged from Sk10,000 (Sk = Swedish krona; ~€1,500 in 2016 values) using the diagnostic code method to more than Sk3,000,000 (~€414,000) using the unit cost method in our study population. The most conservative definitions for ADEs' contribution to health care resource use and the causality of ADEs resulted in average costs per patient ranging from Sk0 using the diagnostic code method to Sk4066 (~€500) using the unit cost method. The estimated costs resulting from ADEs varied considerably depending on the methodological choices. The results indicate that costs for ADEs need to be identified through medical record review and by using detailed unit cost data. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-02-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

  1. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-01-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

  2. Improvement of the cost-benefit analysis algorithm for high-rise construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gafurov Andrey

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The specific nature of high-rise investment projects entailing long-term construction, high risks, etc. implies a need to improve the standard algorithm of cost-benefit analysis. An improved algorithm is described in the article. For development of the improved algorithm of cost-benefit analysis for high-rise construction projects, the following methods were used: weighted average cost of capital, dynamic cost-benefit analysis of investment projects, risk mapping, scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis of critical ratios, etc. This comprehensive approach helped to adapt the original algorithm to feasibility objectives in high-rise construction. The authors put together the algorithm of cost-benefit analysis for high-rise construction projects on the basis of risk mapping and sensitivity analysis of critical ratios. The suggested project risk management algorithms greatly expand the standard algorithm of cost-benefit analysis in investment projects, namely: the “Project analysis scenario” flowchart, improving quality and reliability of forecasting reports in investment projects; the main stages of cash flow adjustment based on risk mapping for better cost-benefit project analysis provided the broad range of risks in high-rise construction; analysis of dynamic cost-benefit values considering project sensitivity to crucial variables, improving flexibility in implementation of high-rise projects.

  3. Improvement of the cost-benefit analysis algorithm for high-rise construction projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gafurov, Andrey; Skotarenko, Oksana; Plotnikov, Vladimir

    2018-03-01

    The specific nature of high-rise investment projects entailing long-term construction, high risks, etc. implies a need to improve the standard algorithm of cost-benefit analysis. An improved algorithm is described in the article. For development of the improved algorithm of cost-benefit analysis for high-rise construction projects, the following methods were used: weighted average cost of capital, dynamic cost-benefit analysis of investment projects, risk mapping, scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis of critical ratios, etc. This comprehensive approach helped to adapt the original algorithm to feasibility objectives in high-rise construction. The authors put together the algorithm of cost-benefit analysis for high-rise construction projects on the basis of risk mapping and sensitivity analysis of critical ratios. The suggested project risk management algorithms greatly expand the standard algorithm of cost-benefit analysis in investment projects, namely: the "Project analysis scenario" flowchart, improving quality and reliability of forecasting reports in investment projects; the main stages of cash flow adjustment based on risk mapping for better cost-benefit project analysis provided the broad range of risks in high-rise construction; analysis of dynamic cost-benefit values considering project sensitivity to crucial variables, improving flexibility in implementation of high-rise projects.

  4. Estimation of volatility of selected oil production projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa Lima, Gabriel A.; Suslick, Saul B.

    2006-01-01

    In oil project valuation and investment decision-making, volatility is a key parameter, but it is difficult to estimate. From a traditional investment viewpoint, volatility reduces project value because it increases its discount rate via a higher risk premium. Contrarily, according to the real-option pricing theory, volatility may aggregate value to the project, since the downside potential is limited whereas the upside is theoretically unbounded. However, the estimation of project volatility is very complicated since there is not a historical series of project values. In such cases, many analysts assume that oil price volatility is equal to that of project. In order to overcome such problems, in this paper an alternative numerical method based on present value of future cash flows and Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to estimate the volatility of projects. This method is applied to estimate the volatility of 12 deep-water offshore oil projects considering that oil price will evolve according to one of two stochastic processes: Geometric Brownian Motion and Mean-Reverting Motion. Results indicate that the volatility of commodity usually undervalue that of project. For the set of offshore projects analyzed in this paper, project volatility is at least 79% higher than that of oil prices and increases dramatically in those cases of high capital expenditures and low price. (author)

  5. Venture Guidance Appraisal cost estimates for groundwater protection Environmental Impact Statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moyer, R.A.

    1987-01-01

    Cost estimates were prepared for closure options at criteria waste sites and alternatives for new disposal facilities for hazardous wastes, mixed wastes, low level radioactive wastes and slurry from liquid waste treatment facilities. Because these cost estimates will be used in the Groundwater Protection EIS, the goal was to develop ''enveloping'' costs, i.e., the alternative or option chosen for execution at a later date should cost no more than the estimate. This report summarizes scenarios for making detailed cost estimates. Also included are unit costs for disposition of potential excavations, for operational activities, and for groundwater monitoring and site maintenance after closure of the site. The cost numbers presented are intended for study purposes only and not for budgetary activities

  6. Project feasibility and mine production costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Longworth, C R

    1987-01-01

    The paper outlines the present investment environment existing in the Australian Coal Industry and places this in the context of the current world seaborne coal trade. Those factors which have the greatest influence on the viability of coal projects today, namely coal prices and quality, exchange rates, cash cost of production, capital and borrowing costs, infrastructure and government charges are dealt with briefly. The paper concludes by giving a schedule of those factors of a local character which can be changed to render projects more competitive and also presents some external factors beyond Australia's control which will, in part, influence the development of the industry in the next decade. 4 refs., 8 figs.

  7. Cost estimate of bovine tuberculosis to Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tschopp, Rea; Hattendorf, Jan; Roth, Felix; Choudhury, Adnan Ali Khan; Choudhoury, Adnan; Shaw, Alexandra; Aseffa, Abraham; Zinsstag, Jakob

    2013-01-01

    While bovine tuberculosis (BTB) has been eliminated in some industrialized countries, it prevails worldwide, particularly in Africa. In Ethiopia, BTB is prevalent as numerous studies have shown its occurrence in livestock and in abattoirs but it has not been demonstrated in wildlife and only very few cases have been found in humans. The objective of this study is to estimate the cost of BTB to Ethiopia with the aim of informing Ethiopian policy on options for BTB control. BTB in livestock affects both animal productivity and herd demographic composition. The Livestock Development Planning System (LDPS2, FAO) was modified to allow for stochastic simulation of parameters. We performed an incremental cost of disease analysis, comparing livestock production with and without BTB. For the rural scenario we considered an endemically stable 4 % comparative intradermal test (CIDT) prevalence and for the urban scenario an endemically stable 32 % CIDT prevalence among cattle. The net present value of rural Ethiopian livestock products in 2005 is estimated at 65.7 billion (thousand million) Ethiopian Birr (95 % Confidence Interval (CI) 53.8-77.7 billion Birr), which is the equivalent of 7.5 billion US$ (95 %CI 6.1-8.9 billion US$) at a rate of 8.7 Birr per US$ in 2005. The cost of BTB ranges from 646 million Birr (75.2 million US$) in 2005 to 3.1 Billion Birr in 2011 (358 million US$) but is within the range of uncertainty of our estimate and can thus not be distinguished from zero. The cost of disease in the urban livestock production ranges from 5 to 42 million Birr (500,000-4.9 million US$) between 2005 and 2011 but is also within the range of uncertainty of our estimate. Our study shows no measurable loss in asset value or cost of disease due to BTB in rural and urban production systems in Ethiopia. This does not mean that there is not a real cost of disease, but the variability of the productivity parameters and prices are high and would require more precise estimates

  8. An improved COCOMO software cost estimation model | Duke ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we discuss the methodologies adopted previously in software cost estimation using the COnstructive COst MOdels (COCOMOs). From our analysis, COCOMOs produce very high software development efforts, which eventually produce high software development costs. Consequently, we propose its extension, ...

  9. Failing to Estimate the Costs of Offshoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Larsen, Marcus

    2016-01-01

    This article investigates cost estimation errors in the context of offshoring. It is argued that an imprecise estimation of the costs related to implementing a firm activity in a foreign location has a negative impact on the process performance of that activity. Performance is deterred...... as operations are likely to be disrupted by managerial distraction and resource misallocation. It is also argued that this relationship is mitigated by the extent to which firms use modularity to coordinate the activity but worsened by the extent to which ongoing communication is used. The results, based...

  10. Reducing Inventory System Costs by Using Robust Demand Estimators

    OpenAIRE

    Raymond A. Jacobs; Harvey M. Wagner

    1989-01-01

    Applications of inventory theory typically use historical data to estimate demand distribution parameters. Imprecise knowledge of the demand distribution adds to the usual replenishment costs associated with stochastic demands. Only limited research has been directed at the problem of choosing cost effective statistical procedures for estimating these parameters. Available theoretical findings on estimating the demand parameters for (s, S) inventory replenishment policies are limited by their...

  11. The unit cost factors and calculation methods for decommissioning - Cost estimation of nuclear research facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwan-Seong Jeong; Dong-Gyu Lee; Chong-Hun Jung; Kune-Woo Lee

    2007-01-01

    Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: The uncertainties of decommissioning costs increase high due to several conditions. Decommissioning cost estimation depends on the complexity of nuclear installations, its site-specific physical and radiological inventories. Therefore, the decommissioning costs of nuclear research facilities must be estimated in accordance with the detailed sub-tasks and resources by the tasks of decommissioning activities. By selecting the classified activities and resources, costs are calculated by the items and then the total costs of all decommissioning activities are reshuffled to match with its usage and objectives. And the decommissioning cost of nuclear research facilities is calculated by applying a unit cost factor method on which classification of decommissioning works fitted with the features and specifications of decommissioning objects and establishment of composition factors are based. Decommissioning costs of nuclear research facilities are composed of labor cost, equipment and materials cost. Of these three categorical costs, the calculation of labor costs are very important because decommissioning activities mainly depend on labor force. Labor costs in decommissioning activities are calculated on the basis of working time consumed in decommissioning objects and works. The working times are figured out of unit cost factors and work difficulty factors. Finally, labor costs are figured out by using these factors as parameters of calculation. The accuracy of decommissioning cost estimation results is much higher compared to the real decommissioning works. (authors)

  12. Selecting and Ranking Cost Research Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-09-01

    Model (STACM) Enhancements Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools ( ACEIT ) Libraries BM/C 3 GEP Engineering and Cost BM/C 3 EP Engineering and Cost...50K NOM VHI 0.02635481 STACM ENHANCEMENTS NOM អK NOM VHI 0.02468682 ACEIT LIBRARIES VHI 50-IOOK HI VHI 0.06357704 GEP ENGRG. & COST VHI 100-150K VHl...0.02505922 SCATS LOW អK NOM VIII 0.02468682 PICES SUPPORT NOM 50-100K NOM VlIl 0.02455186 ACEIT SUPPORT VIII 50-100K VHI VHI 0.08208244 GUARDIAN

  13. Engineer’s estimate reliability and statistical characteristics of bids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fariborz M. Tehrani

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this report is to provide a methodology for examining bids and evaluating the performance of engineer’s estimates in capturing the true cost of projects. This study reviews the cost development for transportation projects in addition to two sources of uncertainties in a cost estimate, including modeling errors and inherent variability. Sample projects are highway maintenance projects with a similar scope of the work, size, and schedule. Statistical analysis of engineering estimates and bids examines the adaptability of statistical models for sample projects. Further, the variation of engineering cost estimates from inception to implementation has been presented and discussed for selected projects. Moreover, the applicability of extreme values theory is assessed for available data. The results indicate that the performance of engineer’s estimate is best evaluated based on trimmed average of bids, excluding discordant bids.

  14. A mathematical model for crashing projects by considering time, cost, quality and risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Mahmoudi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Employers are looking for reducing execution time and maintaining the quality of the projects that are the main objective of the projects. In this article, we focus on crashing projects by con-sidering different factors such as cost, time, quality and risk. For the proposed integer linear model, cost of conformance and cost of non-conformance are considered as parts of the costs of quality of deliverables in projects. The cost of conformance consists of the costs of training the project team, inspection and test of deliverables. The cost of non-conformance also includes costs of rework and scrap. Project risk management is one of the important aspects of the pro-jects. The present study also considers the impact of risks, which is highly applicable in projects with a high level of uncertainty. Results are presented using integer programming approach with the aim of minimizing the costs of the project.

  15. [Methodologies for estimating the indirect costs of traffic accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carozzi, Soledad; Elorza, María Eugenia; Moscoso, Nebel Silvana; Ripari, Nadia Vanina

    2017-01-01

    Traffic accidents generate multiple costs to society, including those associated with the loss of productivity. However, there is no consensus about the most appropriate methodology for estimating those costs. The aim of this study was to review methods for estimating indirect costs applied in crash cost studies. A thematic review of the literature was carried out between 1995 and 2012 in PubMed with the terms cost of illness, indirect cost, road traffic injuries, productivity loss. For the assessment of costs we used the the human capital method, on the basis of the wage-income lost during the time of treatment and recovery of patients and caregivers. In the case of premature death or total disability, the discount rate was applied to obtain the present value of lost future earnings. The computed years arose by subtracting to life expectancy at birth the average age of those affected who are not incorporated into the economically active life. The interest in minimizing the problem is reflected in the evolution of the implemented methodologies. We expect that this review is useful to estimate efficiently the real indirect costs of traffic accidents.

  16. Analysis of nuclear-power construction costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansma, G.L.; Borcherding, J.D.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses the use of regression analysis for estimating construction costs. The estimate is based on an historical data base and quantification of key factors considered external to project management. This technique is not intended as a replacement for detailed cost estimates but can provide information useful to the cost-estimating process and to top management interested in evaluating project management. The focus of this paper is the nuclear-power construction industry but the technique is applicable beyond this example. The approach and critical assumptions are also useful in a public-policy situation where utility commissions are evaluating construction in prudence reviews and making comparisons to other nuclear projects. 13 references, 2 figures

  17. Structural Estimation of Stock Market Participation Costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia

    2013-01-01

    education programs can affect consumers' investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 4–6% of labor...

  18. Identifying factors causing cost overrun of the construction projects ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Swapnil P Wanjari

    Cost overrun in India; ANOVA; factor analysis; construction projects. 1. Introduction ... gramme Implementation in India [2], projects of public .... case if a respondent never came across of such factor. ..... The co-relation matrix for variables of cost overruns was ..... There are various problems observed due to communication.

  19. Army Corps of Engineers: Cost Increases in Flood Control Projects and Improving Communication with Nonfederal Sponsors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    such poor condition that it had to have major rehabilitation work performed. Work to fix the deteriorated tunnel cost $10 million more than had...originally been estimated.19 Corps officials on the Little Calumet project said during construction they encountered a former landfill along one portion

  20. nuSTORM Costing document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bross, Alan D. [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States)

    2013-10-01

    Detailed costing of the nuSTORM conventional facilities has been done by the Fermilab Facilities Engineering Services Section (FESS) and is reported on in the nuSTORM Project Definition Report (PDR) 6-13-1. Estimates for outfitting the primary proton beam line, the target station, the pion capture/transport line and decay ring are based on either experience from existing Fermilab infrastructure (NuMI) or is based on the detailed costing exercises for DOE CD-1 approval for future experiments (mu2e and LBNE). The detector costing utilized the Euronu costing for the Neutrino Factory Magnetized Iron Neutrino Detector (MIND), extrapolations from MINOS as-built costs and from recent vendor quotes. Costs included all manpower and are fully burdened (FY2013 dollars). The costs are not escalated, however, beyond the 5-year project timeline, since a project start for nuSTORM is unknown. Escalation can be estimated from various models (see Figure 1). LBNE has used the Jacob’s model to determine their cost escalation.

  1. Preliminary ITER cost and schedule estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    The cost, manpower requirements, and schedule estimates for the realization of the ITER tokamak have been studied during the Conceptual Design Activities, as a result of work by the ITER Management Committee. This work was completed during the January-March, 1990 joint work session, and is presented in this report. A possible schedule shows completion of the engineering design phase in 1995, with 180 professionals, at a cost of about $250M. The construction would be completed in 2004 with a rise in professional staff to 300, and a total cost of $4900M. The machine would be operable over an 18-year period, at an annual operating cost averaging $290M. 2 figs

  2. Long-term care cost drivers and expenditure projection to 2036 in Hong Kong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chan Wai

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hong Kong's rapidly ageing population, characterised by one of the longest life expectancies and the lowest fertility rate in the world, is likely to drive long-term care (LTC expenditure higher. This study aims to identify key cost drivers and derive quantitative estimates of Hong Kong's LTC expenditure to 2036. Methods We parameterised a macro actuarial simulation with data from official demographic projections, Thematic Household Survey 2004, Hong Kong's Domestic Health Accounts and other routine data from relevant government departments, Hospital Authority and other LTC service providers. Base case results were tested against a wide range of sensitivity assumptions. Results Total projected LTC expenditure as a proportion of GDP reflected secular trends in the elderly dependency ratio, showing a shallow dip between 2004 and 2011, but thereafter yielding a monotonic rise to reach 3.0% by 2036. Demographic changes would have a larger impact than changes in unit costs on overall spending. Different sensitivity scenarios resulted in a wide range of spending estimates from 2.2% to 4.9% of GDP. The availability of informal care and the setting of formal care as well as associated unit costs were important drivers of expenditure. Conclusion The "demographic window" between the present and 2011 is critical in developing policies to cope with the anticipated burgeoning LTC burden, in concert with the related issues of health care financing and retirement planning.

  3. Projected Costs of Generating Electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plante, J.

    1998-01-01

    Every 3 to 4 years, the NEA undertakes a study on projected costs of generating electricity in OECD countries. This started in 1983 and the last study (1997) has just be completed. All together 5 studies were performed, the first three dealing with nuclear and coal options, while the 1992 and 1997 included also the gas option. The goal of the study is to compare, country by country, generating costs of nuclear, coal-fired and gas-fired power plants that could be commissioned in the respondent countries by 2005-2010

  4. A level playing field: Obtaining consistent cost estimates for advanced reactor designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, C.R. II; Rohm, H.H.; Humphreys, J.R. Jr.

    1987-01-01

    Rules and guidelines for developing cost estimates are given which provide a means for presenting cost estimates for advanced concepts on a consistent and equitable basis. For advanced reactor designs, the scope of a cost estimate includes the plant capital cost, the operating and maintenance cost, the fuel cycle cost, and the cost of decommissioning. Each element is subdivided as is necessary to provide a common reporting format for all power plant concepts. The total generation cost is taken to be a suitable choice for a summary figure of merit. To test the application of the rules and guidelines as well as developing reference costs for current technologies, several different sized coal and pressurized water reactor plant cost estimates have been prepared

  5. Reported Energy and Cost Savings from the DOE ESPC Program: FY 2014

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slattery, Bob S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-03-01

    The objective of this work was to determine the realization rate of energy and cost savings from the Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) program based on information reported by the energy services companies (ESCOs) that are carrying out ESPC projects at federal sites. Information was extracted from 156 Measurement and Verification (M&V) reports to determine reported, estimated, and guaranteed cost savings and reported and estimated energy savings for the previous contract year. Because the quality of the reports varied, it was not possible to determine all of these parameters for each project. For all 156 projects, there was sufficient information to compare estimated, reported, and guaranteed cost savings. For this group, the total estimated cost savings for the reporting periods addressed were $210.6 million, total reported cost savings were $215.1 million, and total guaranteed cost savings were $204.5 million. This means that on average: ESPC contractors guaranteed 97% of the estimated cost savings; projects reported achieving 102% of the estimated cost savings; and projects reported achieving 105% of the guaranteed cost savings. For 155 of the projects examined, there was sufficient information to compare estimated and reported energy savings. On the basis of site energy, estimated savings for those projects for the previous year totaled 11.938 million MMBtu, and reported savings were 12.138 million MMBtu, 101.7% of the estimated energy savings. On the basis of source energy, total estimated energy savings for the 155 projects were 19.052 million MMBtu, and reported saving were 19.516 million MMBtu, 102.4% of the estimated energy savings.

  6. Cost Assessment Methodology and Economic Viability of Tidal Energy Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Segura

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The exploitation of technologies with which to harness the energy from ocean currents will have considerable possibilities in the future thanks to their enormous potential for electricity production and their high predictability. In this respect, the development of methodologies for the economic viability of these technologies is fundamental to the attainment of a consistent quantification of their costs and the discovery of their economic viability, while simultaneously attracting investment in these technologies. This paper presents a methodology with which to determine the economic viability of tidal energy projects, which includes a technical study of the life-cycle costs into which the development of a tidal farm can be decomposed: concept and definition, design and development, manufacturing, installation, operation and maintenance and dismantling. These cost structures are additionally subdivided by considering their sub-costs and bearing in mind the main components of the tidal farm: the nacelle, the supporting tidal energy converter structure and the export power system. Furthermore, a technical study is developed in order to obtain an estimation of the annual energy produced (and, consequently, the incomes generated if the electric tariff is known by considering its principal attributes: the characteristics of the current, the ability of the device to capture energy and its ability to convert and export the energy. The methodology has been applied (together with a sensibility analysis to the particular case of a farm composed of first generation tidal energy converters in one of the Channel Island Races, the Alderney Race, in the U.K., and the results have been attained by means of the computation of engineering indexes, such as the net present value, the internal rate of return, the discounted payback period and the levelized cost of energy, which indicate that the proposed project is economically viable for all the case studies.

  7. Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) Cost Estimation, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Innovation Laboratory, Inc., proposes to build a tool to estimate airline costs under TBO. This tool includes a cost model that explicitly reasons about traffic...

  8. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report. Part 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-12-31

    The purpose of the City of Houston`s 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA`s Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  9. Time-driven activity-based costing to estimate cost of care at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Jordan A; Mistry, Bipin; Hardy, Stephen; Fracchia, Mary Shannon; Hersh, Cheryl; Wentland, Carissa; Vadakekalam, Joseph; Kaplan, Robert; Hartnick, Christopher J

    2017-09-01

    Providing high-value healthcare to patients is increasingly becoming an objective for providers including those at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. Measuring value has two components: 1) identify relevant health outcomes and 2) determine relevant treatment costs. Via their inherent structure, multidisciplinary care units consolidate care for complex patients. However, their potential impact on decreasing healthcare costs is less clear. The goal of this study was to estimate the potential cost savings of treating patients with laryngeal clefts at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. Retrospective chart review. Time-driven activity-based costing was used to estimate the cost of care for patients with laryngeal cleft seen between 2008 and 2013 at the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary Pediatric Aerodigestive Center. Retrospective chart review was performed to identify clinic utilization by patients as well as patient diet outcomes after treatment. Patients were stratified into neurologically complex and neurologically noncomplex groups. The cost of care for patients requiring surgical intervention was five and three times as expensive of the cost of care for patients not requiring surgery for neurologically noncomplex and complex patients, respectively. Following treatment, 50% and 55% of complex and noncomplex patients returned to normal diet, whereas 83% and 87% of patients experienced improved diets, respectively. Additionally, multidisciplinary team-based care for children with laryngeal clefts potentially achieves 20% to 40% cost savings. These findings demonstrate how time-driven activity-based costing can be used to estimate and compare patient costs in multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. 2c. Laryngoscope, 127:2152-2158, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  10. A new approach for product cost estimation using data envelopment analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adil Salam

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimation of new products has always been difficult as only few design, manufacturing and operational features will be known. In these situations, parametric or non-parametric methods are commonly used to estimate the cost of a product given the corresponding cost drivers. The parametric models use priori determined cost function where the parameters of the function are evaluated from historical data. Non-parametric methods, on the other hand, attempt to fit curves to the historic data without predetermined function. In both methods, it is assumed that the historic data used in the analysis is a true representation of the relation between the cost drivers and the corresponding costs. However, because of efficiency variations of the manufacturers and suppliers, changes in supplier selections, market fluctuations, and several other reasons, certain costs in the historic data may be too high whereas other costs may represent better deals for their corresponding cost drivers. Thus, it may be important to rank the historic data and identify benchmarks and estimate the target costs of the product based on these benchmarks. In this paper, a novel adaptation of cost drivers and cost data is introduced in order to use data envelopment analysis for the purpose of ranking cost data and identify benchmarks, and then estimate the target costs of a new product based on these benchmarks. An illustrative case study has been presented for the cost estimation of landing gears of an aircraft manufactured by an aerospace company located in Montreal, CANADA.

  11. Estimating railway infrastructure project cost from transferring nominal price to real price by considering the working time possessions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Rui; Landex, Alex; Salling, Kim Bang

    are varying depending on the working time possessions presented through the closure of the railway line. The effective working hours, type of construction work and construction speed are used as constraints to ensure the track closure plan remains feasible. To demonstrate the approach a Danish railway...... and 2) railway construction work costs are not transparent in the market. This paper suggests separating the costs into 3 sub-categories: materials, labour and machinery. Evidently, the materials are further broke-down into subcomponents which then remains fixed whereas the cost of labour and machinery...... construction project, the new line to the fixed link across Fehmarn Belt, is introduced where it is shown that the non-material cost is about 19% of the total expenditure. By assuming three sets of track blocking scenarios with the same amount of construction works it is proven that given an optimal track...

  12. Identifying an Australian ‘Shadow’ Benefit / Cost Ratio for Public Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Lawrence, Craig

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the social opportunity cost of a hypothetical public project in Australia and compares these values with the cost of the project as measured by factor prices. Since 2001, the Australian taxation system has included an ad valorem tax, the Goods and Services Tax, however relatively little analysis of the impact of this tax on public project evaluation methods has been undertaken. This tax creates divergences between social opportunity cost and conventional cost measures. The...

  13. Standardized Cost Structure for the Environmental Industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skokan, B.; Melamed, D.; Guevara, K.; Mallick, P.; Bierman, G.; Marshall, H.E.

    2006-01-01

    The underlying key to developing successful estimates, tracking project costs, and utilizing historical project cost information is the development of standardized and well-defined hierarchical listing of cost categories. Committees within the U.S. Federal agencies have pioneered efforts toward developing the Environmental Cost Element Structure (ECES), which is key in achieving these goals. The ECES was developed using an iterative process with input from federal agencies and industry. Experts from several disciplines participated including engineers, cost estimators, project/program managers, and contract personnel. The ECES benefits from an intense analytical effort, the knowledge gained from the maturation of the environmental industry, and incorporation of past user's experiences. Building upon this foundation, the E06 committee of the ASTM International has now fully developed and published a standard (ASTM 2150-04) that provides standardized cost categories with complete cost category definitions. This standard affords environmental and nuclear D and D project managers the opportunity to have a well defined hierarchical listing of their estimates and actual costs, readily adapted to performing summations and roll-ups, supported by a multi-level dictionary specifically defining the content of the cost elements as well as the summations. Owing to the dynamic nature of the environmental technologies, efforts need to be made to continue to update this standard by adding new technologies and methods as they are developed and employed in the field. Lastly, the Environmental Cost Element Structure that is embodied in this standard also presents opportunities to develop historical cost databases and comprehensive life cycle cost estimates and standardized cost estimating tools. (authors)

  14. Financial aspects of decommissioning (key aspects of decommissioning costing)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danska, V.

    2009-01-01

    In this presentation the following aspects of NPPs decommissioning are discussed: Requirements and purpose of decommissioning costing; Decommissioning costing methodologies; Standardised decommissioning cost structure; Input data for cost estimate process; Waste management in cost estimate process; Grading aspects in cost estimating; Cost control in decommissioning projects; Summary of the cost estimation process; Conclusions and recommendations.

  15. The Acquisition Cost-Estimating Workforce. Census and Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Abbreviations AAC Air Armament Center ACAT acquisition category ACEIT Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools AF Air Force AFB Air Force Base AFCAA Air...3 3 4 Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools ( ACEIT ) 0 1 12 6 Tecolotea training 0 0 10 5 Other 3 13 24 18 No training 18 4 29 18 Total 100 100...other sources, including AFIT, ACEIT ,9 or the contracting agency that employed them. The remain- ing 29 percent reported having received no training

  16. 48 CFR 2452.216-70 - Estimated cost, base fee and award fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Estimated cost, base fee... Provisions and Clauses 2452.216-70 Estimated cost, base fee and award fee. As prescribed in 2416.406(e)(1), insert the following clause in all cost-plus-award-fee contracts: Estimated Cost, Base Fee and Award Fee...

  17. Counting the cost: estimating the economic benefit of pedophile treatment programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanahan, M; Donato, R

    2001-04-01

    The principal objective of this paper is to identify the economic costs and benefits of pedophile treatment programs incorporating both the tangible and intangible cost of sexual abuse to victims. Cost estimates of cognitive behavioral therapy programs in Australian prisons are compared against the tangible and intangible costs to victims of being sexually abused. Estimates are prepared that take into account a number of problematic issues. These include the range of possible recidivism rates for treatment programs; the uncertainty surrounding the number of child sexual molestation offences committed by recidivists; and the methodological problems associated with estimating the intangible costs of sexual abuse on victims. Despite the variation in parameter estimates that impact on the cost-benefit analysis of pedophile treatment programs, it is found that potential range of economic costs from child sexual abuse are substantial and the economic benefits to be derived from appropriate and effective treatment programs are high. Based on a reasonable set of parameter estimates, in-prison, cognitive therapy treatment programs for pedophiles are likely to be of net benefit to society. Despite this, a critical area of future research must include further methodological developments in estimating the quantitative impact of child sexual abuse in the community.

  18. Development of regional stump-to-mill logging cost estimators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris B. LeDoux; John E. Baumgras

    1989-01-01

    Planning logging operations requires estimating the logging costs for the sale or tract being harvested. Decisions need to be made on equipment selection and its application to terrain. In this paper a methodology is described that has been developed and implemented to solve the problem of accurately estimating logging costs by region. The methodology blends field time...

  19. A generic tool for cost estimating in aircraft design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castagne, S.; Curran, R.; Rothwell, A.; Price, M.; Benard, E.; Raghunathan, S.

    2008-01-01

    A methodology to estimate the cost implications of design decisions by integrating cost as a design parameter at an early design stage is presented. The model is developed on a hierarchical basis, the manufacturing cost of aircraft fuselage panels being analysed in this paper. The manufacturing cost

  20. BIM – New rules of measurement ontology for construction cost estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F.H. Abanda

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available For generations, the process of cost estimation has been manual, time-consuming and error-prone. Emerging Building Information Modelling (BIM can exploit standard measurement methods to automate cost estimation process and improve inaccuracies. Structuring standard measurement methods in an ontologically and machine readable format for a BIM software can greatly facilitate the process of improving inaccuracies in cost estimation. This study explores the development of an ontology based on New Rules of Measurement (NRM for cost estimation during the tendering stages. The methodology adopted is methontology, one of the most widely used ontology engineering methodologies. To ensure the ontology is fit for purpose, cost estimation experts are employed to check the semantics, descriptive logic-based reasoners are used to syntactically check the ontology and a leading 4D BIM modelling software is used on a case study building to test/validate the proposed ontology.

  1. Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project is a family of health care databases and related software tools and products developed through a Federal-State-Industry partnership and sponsored by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

  2. Thermal and nuclear power generation cost estimates using corporate financial statements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, Yuhji; Nagatomi, Yu; Murakami, Tomoko

    2012-01-01

    There are two generally accepted methods for estimating power generation costs: so-called 'model plant' method and the method using corporate financial statements. The method using corporate financial statements, though under some constraints, can provide useful information for comparing thermal and nuclear power generation costs. This study used this method for estimating thermal and nuclear power generation costs in Japan for the past five years, finding that the nuclear power generation cost remained stable at around 7 yen per kilowatt-hour (kWh) while the thermal power generation cost moved within a wide range of 9 to 12 yen/kWh in line with wild fluctuations in primary energy prices. The cost of nuclear power generation is expected to increase due to the enhancement of safety measures and accident damage compensation in the future, while there are reactor decommissioning, backend and many other costs that the financial statement-using approach cannot accurately estimate. In the future, efforts should be continued to comprehensively and accurately estimate total costs. (author)

  3. Causative factors of cost overrun in highway projects of Sindh province of Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohu, S.; Halid, A.; Nagapan, S.; Fattah, A.; Latif, I.; Ullah, K.

    2017-11-01

    Cost overrun is an increase of cost of project from approved budget which was signed by parties at the time of tender. Cost overrun in construction of highway projects is a common problem worldwide and construction industry of Pakistan is also facing this crucial problem of cost overrun in highway projects of Pakistan. The main objective of this research is to identify the causative factors of cost overrun in highway projects of Sindh province of Pakistan. A well designed questionnaire was developed based on 64 common factors of cost overrun from literature review. Developed questionnaire was distributed among selected 30 experts from owner/client, designer/consultant and contractor who have experience more than 20 years’ experience in highway projects. The collected data was statistical analyzed. After analysis results showed that delay process in payment by client, inadequate planning, client interference, poor contract management, delay of decision making, change of scope of project and financial problems faced by client were most causative factors of cost overrun in highway projects. This research will provide alertness to stakeholders of highway projects of Sindh province to avoid cost overrun in projects.

  4. Preliminary Cost Estimates for Nuclear Hydrogen Production: HTSE System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, K. J.; Lee, K. Y.; Lee, T. H.

    2008-01-01

    KAERI is now focusing on the research and development of the key technologies required for the design and realization of a nuclear hydrogen production system. As a preliminary study of cost estimates for nuclear hydrogen systems, the hydrogen production costs of the nuclear energy sources benchmarking GTMHR and PBMR are estimated in the necessary input data on a Korean specific basis. G4-ECONS was appropriately modified to calculate the cost for hydrogen production of HTSE (High Temperature Steam Electrolysis) process with VHTR (Very High Temperature nuclear Reactor) as a thermal energy source. The estimated costs presented in this paper show that hydrogen production by the VHTR could be competitive with current techniques of hydrogen production from fossil fuels if CO 2 capture and sequestration is required. Nuclear production of hydrogen would allow large-scale production of hydrogen at economic prices while avoiding the release of CO 2 . Nuclear production of hydrogen could thus become the enabling technology for the hydrogen economy. The major factors that would affect the cost of hydrogen were also discussed

  5. Decommissioning Unit Cost Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanford, P. C.; Stevens, J. L.; Brandt, R.

    2002-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Closure Site (Site) is in the process of stabilizing residual nuclear materials, decommissioning nuclear facilities, and remediating environmental media. A number of contaminated facilities have been decommissioned, including one building, Building 779, that contained gloveboxes used for plutonium process development but did little actual plutonium processing. The actual costs incurred to decommission this facility formed much of the basis or standards used to estimate the decommissioning of the remaining plutonium-processing buildings. Recent decommissioning activities in the first actual production facility, Building 771, implemented a number of process and procedural improvements. These include methods for handling plutonium contaminated equipment, including size reduction, decontamination, and waste packaging, as well as management improvements to streamline planning and work control. These improvements resulted in a safer working environment and reduced project cost, as demonstrated in the overall project efficiency. The topic of this paper is the analysis of how this improved efficiency is reflected in recent unit costs for activities specific to the decommissioning of plutonium facilities. This analysis will allow the Site to quantify the impacts on future Rocky Flats decommissioning activities, and to develop data for planning and cost estimating the decommissioning of future facilities. The paper discusses the methods used to collect and arrange the project data from the individual work areas within Building 771. Regression and data correlation techniques were used to quantify values for different types of decommissioning activities. The discussion includes the approach to identify and allocate overall project support, waste management, and Site support costs based on the overall Site and project costs to provide a ''burdened'' unit cost. The paper ultimately provides a unit cost basis that can be used to support cost estimates for

  6. A simulation of 'schedule-cost' progress monitoring system in nuclear power project management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Haitao; Huang Zhongping; Zhang Zemin; Wang Zikai

    2010-01-01

    The objective of project management is to find the optimal balance between progress and cost according to the project requirements. Traditional method always manages progress and cost separately. However, domestic and international experience indicated that the interactions between these two factors are crucial in the project implementation. Modern project managers have to manage and maintain a 'Progress - Cost' joint control framework. Such a model is applied into a sub-project of a nuclear power project using Simulink in this paper. It helps to identify and correct the deviations of the project. Earned Value Management is used by the project manager to quantify the cost of the project and progress of implementation. The budget plan value, actual value, earned value are three important parameters to measure cost and progress of the project. The experimental results illustrated that the method gives a more comprehensive performance evaluation of the project. (authors)

  7. The QUELCE Method: Using Change Drivers to Estimate Program Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    Analysis 4 2.4 Assign Conditional Probabilities 5 2.5 Apply Uncertainty to Cost Formula Inputs for Scenarios 5 2.6 Perform Monte Carlo Simulation to...Distribution Statement A: Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited 1 Introduction: The Cost Estimation Challenge Because large-scale programs... challenged [Bliss 2012]. Improvements in cost estimation that would make these assumptions more precise and reduce early lifecycle uncertainty can

  8. Estimating software development project size, using probabilistic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Estimating software development project size, using probabilistic techniques. ... of managing the size of software development projects by Purchasers (Clients) and Vendors (Development ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  9. Estimating two indirect logging costs caused by accelerated erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen O. Klock

    1976-01-01

    In forest areas where high soil erosion potential exists, a comparative yarding cost estimate, including the indirect costs determined by methods proposed here, shows that the total cost of using "advanced" logging methods may be less than that of "traditional" systems.

  10. Projected costs of generating electricity - 2005 update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    The joint IEA/NEA study provides generation cost estimates for over a hundred power plants that use a variety of fuels and technologies. These include coal-fired, gas-fired, nuclear, hydro, solar and wind plants. Cost estimates are also given for combined heat and power plants that use coal, gas and combustible renewables. Data and information for this study were provided by experts from 19 OECD member countries and 3 non-member countries. The power plants examined in the study use technologies available today. The study shows that the competitiveness of alternative generation sources and technologies ultimately depends on many parameters: there is no clear-cut 'winner'. Major issues related to generation costs addressed in the report include: descriptions of state-of-the-art generation technologies; the methodologies for incorporating risk in cost assessments; the impact of carbon emission trading; and how to integrate wind power into the electricity grid. 24 figs., 38 tabs., 11 apps.

  11. NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM): Capabilities and Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAfee, Julie; Culver, George; Naderi, Mahmoud

    2011-01-01

    NAFCOM is a parametric estimating tool for space hardware. Uses cost estimating relationships (CERs) which correlate historical costs to mission characteristics to predict new project costs. It is based on historical NASA and Air Force space projects. It is intended to be used in the very early phases of a development project. NAFCOM can be used at the subsystem or component levels and estimates development and production costs. NAFCOM is applicable to various types of missions (crewed spacecraft, uncrewed spacecraft, and launch vehicles). There are two versions of the model: a government version that is restricted and a contractor releasable version.

  12. Examining engineering costs for development of highway projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) commissioned a research team at Texas State University-San Marcos Department of Accounting to analyze the cost of projects by determining the cost of a preliminary engineering hour necessary to develop h...

  13. Review of PV Inverter Technology Cost and Performance Projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Navigant Consulting Inc.

    2006-01-01

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has a major responsibility in the implementation of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Solar Energy Technologies Program. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has a major role in supporting inverter development, characterization, standards, certifications, and verifications. The Solar Energy Technologies Program recently published a Multiyear Technical Plan, which establishes a goal of reducing the Levelized Energy Cost (LEC) for photovoltaic (PV) systems to $0.06/kWh by 2020. The Multiyear Technical Plan estimates that, in order to meet the PV system goal, PV inverter prices will need to decline to $0.25-0.30 Wp by 2020. DOE determined the need to conduct a rigorous review of the PV Program's technical and economic targets, including the target set for PV inverters. NREL requested that Navigant Consulting Inc.(NCI) conduct a review of historical and projected cost and performance improvements for PV inverters, including identification of critical barriers identified and the approaches government might use to address them.

  14. [Fuel Rod Consolidation Project]: The estimated total life cycle cost for the 30-year operation of prototypical consolidation demonstration equipment: Volume 4, Phase 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    The Total Life Cycle Costs have been developed for the construction, operation and decommissioning of a single line of hot-cell-enclosed production consolidation equipment operating on spent fuel at the rate of 750 MTU/year for 30 years. The cost estimate is for a single production line that is part of an overall facility at either a Monitored Retrievable Storage or a Repository facility. This overall facility would include other capabilities and possibly other consolidation lines. However, no costs were included in the cost estimate for other portions of the plant, except that staff costs include an overhead charge that reflects the overhead support services in an overall facility

  15. A non-stationary cost-benefit based bivariate extreme flood estimation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo

    2018-02-01

    Cost-benefit analysis and flood frequency analysis have been integrated into a comprehensive framework to estimate cost effective design values. However, previous cost-benefit based extreme flood estimation is based on stationary assumptions and analyze dependent flood variables separately. A Non-Stationary Cost-Benefit based bivariate design flood estimation (NSCOBE) approach is developed in this study to investigate influence of non-stationarities in both the dependence of flood variables and the marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation. The dependence is modeled utilizing copula functions. Previous design flood selection criteria are not suitable for NSCOBE since they ignore time changing dependence of flood variables. Therefore, a risk calculation approach is proposed based on non-stationarities in both marginal probability distributions and copula functions. A case study with 54-year observed data is utilized to illustrate the application of NSCOBE. Results show NSCOBE can effectively integrate non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions into cost-benefit based design flood estimation. It is also found that there is a trade-off between maximum probability of exceedance calculated from copula functions and marginal distributions. This study for the first time provides a new approach towards a better understanding of influence of non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary bivariate design flood estimation across the world.

  16. Methodology used in IRSN nuclear accident cost estimates in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    This report describes the methodology used by IRSN to estimate the cost of potential nuclear accidents in France. It concerns possible accidents involving pressurized water reactors leading to radioactive releases in the environment. These accidents have been grouped in two accident families called: severe accidents and major accidents. Two model scenarios have been selected to represent each of these families. The report discusses the general methodology of nuclear accident cost estimation. The crucial point is that all cost should be considered: if not, the cost is underestimated which can lead to negative consequences for the value attributed to safety and for crisis preparation. As a result, the overall cost comprises many components: the most well-known is offsite radiological costs, but there are many others. The proposed estimates have thus required using a diversity of methods which are described in this report. Figures are presented at the end of this report. Among other things, they show that purely radiological costs only represent a non-dominant part of foreseeable economic consequences. (authors)

  17. A project management quality cost information system for the construction industry

    OpenAIRE

    Love, PED; Irani, Z

    2003-01-01

    A prototype Project Management Quality Cost System (PROMQACS) was developed to determine quality costs in construction projects. The structure and information requirements that are needed to provide a classification system of quality costs were identified and discussed. The developed system was tested and implemented in two case study construction projects to determine the information and management issues needed to develop PROMQACS into a software program. In addition, the system was used to...

  18. Estimating Drilling Cost and Duration Using Copulas Dependencies Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Al Kindi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of drilling budget and duration is a high-level challenge for oil and gas industry. This is due to the many uncertain activities in the drilling procedure such as material prices, overhead cost, inflation, oil prices, well type, and depth of drilling. Therefore, it is essential to consider all these uncertain variables and the nature of relationships between them. This eventually leads into the minimization of the level of uncertainty and yet makes a "good" estimation points for budget and duration given the well type. In this paper, the copula probability theory is used in order to model the dependencies between cost/duration and MRI (mechanical risk index. The MRI is a mathematical computation, which relates various drilling factors such as: water depth, measured depth, true vertical depth in addition to mud weight and horizontal displacement. In general, the value of MRI is utilized as an input for the drilling cost and duration estimations. Therefore, modeling the uncertain dependencies between MRI and both cost and duration using copulas is important. The cost and duration estimates for each well were extracted from the copula dependency model where research study simulate over 10,000 scenarios. These new estimates were later compared to the actual data in order to validate the performance of the procedure. Most of the wells show moderate - weak relationship of MRI dependence, which means that the variation in these wells can be related to MRI but to the extent that it is not the primary source.

  19. Supplemental report on cost estimates'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have completed an analysis of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Fiscal Year (FY) 1993 budget request for its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (ERWM) program. The results were presented to an interagency review group (IAG) of senior-Administration officials for their consideration in the budget process. This analysis included evaluations of the underlying legal requirements and cost estimates on which the ERWM budget request was based. The major conclusions are contained in a separate report entitled, ''Interagency Review of the Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program.'' This Corps supplemental report provides greater detail on the cost analysis

  20. Trends in nuclear power plant capital-investment cost estimates - 1976 to 1982

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowers, H.I.; Fuller, L.C.; Myers, M.L.

    1983-09-01

    This report describes trends in power plant capital investment cost estimates over the time period from 1976 to 1982. A review of economic parameters, inflation and escalation rates and cost of money, and a review of cost-size scaling relationships are included. Reference cost estimates are provided for light-water reactor and coal-fired electric power plants based on safety and environmental regulations in effect in January 1982. The sensitivity of the reference cost estimates to numerous economic parameters is analyzed

  1. Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2017 to 2026

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-02-01

    amounts at roughly the same rates that costs for similar programs have grown in the past. Nuclear forces account for roughly 6 percent of the total 10...nuclear forces, some published estimates of the total costs of nuclear weapons account for the costs of several related activities. Examples include...based its estimate on historical costs of analogous programs. b. This category includes nuclear-related research and operations support activities by

  2. Estimating the cost of epilepsy in Europe: a review with economic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugliatti, Maura; Beghi, Ettore; Forsgren, Lars; Ekman, Mattias; Sobocki, Patrik

    2007-12-01

    Based on available epidemiologic, health economic, and international population statistics literature, the cost of epilepsy in Europe was estimated. Europe was defined as the 25 European Union member countries, Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland. Guidelines for epidemiological studies on epilepsy were used for a case definition. A bottom-up prevalence-based cost-of-illness approach, the societal perspective for including the cost items, and the human capital approach as valuation principle for indirect costs were used. The cost estimates were based on selected studies with common methodology and valuation principles. The estimated prevalence of epilepsy in Europe in 2004 was 4.3-7.8 per 1,000. The estimated total cost of the disease in Europe was euro15.5 billion in 2004, indirect cost being the single most dominant cost category (euro8.6 billion). Direct health care costs were euro2.8 billion, outpatient care comprising the largest part (euro1.3 billion). Direct nonmedical cost was euro4.2 billion. That of antiepileptic drugs was euro400 million. The total cost per case was euro2,000-11,500 and the estimated cost per European inhabitant was euro33. Epilepsy is a relevant socioeconomic burden at individual, family, health services, and societal level in Europe. The greater proportion of such burden is outside the formal health care sector, antiepileptic drugs representing a smaller proportion. Lack of economic data from several European countries and other methodological limitations make this report an initial estimate of the cost of epilepsy in Europe. Prospective incidence cost-of-illness studies from well-defined populations and common methodology are encouraged.

  3. Policies to Avoid Cost Overruns in Infrastructure Projects: Critical Evaluation and Recommendations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Lind

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Many infrastructure projects have cost overruns and there has been a lot of research both on why these cost overruns occur and what can be done to reduce hem. Bent Flyvbjerg is the leading researcher in the area and in this article his proposals are used as the starting point. Besides a literature review, a questionnaire was sent out to experienced Swedish project managers to find out what they thought could reduce cost overruns. The literature review and the questionnaire were the foundation for the proposals formulated in this article. Proposals concerned three areas: (1. Organisational macro-structure, e.g. using more PPP projects but also decentralisation of budgets where cost overruns in one project in a region lead to less alternative projects in the specific region. (2. Organisational quality: It should be easy to see when and where cost overruns occur and who was responsible. There should be a well-developed knowledge management system in the organisation and an organisation culture of openness with a focus on improvements. (3. Organisational processes, e.g. a systematic use of external reviewers in different stages of a project.   Keywords: Cost overruns, Infrastructure projects, Policy measures

  4. Estimating direct and indirect costs of premenstrual syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borenstein, Jeff; Chiou, Chiun-Fang; Dean, Bonnie; Wong, John; Wade, Sally

    2005-01-01

    To quantify the economic impact of premenstrual syndrome (PMS) on the employer. Data were collected from 374 women aged 18-45 with regular menses. Direct costs were quantified using administrative claims of these patients and the Medicare Fee Schedule. Indirect costs were quantified by both self-reported days of work missed and lost productivity at work. Regression analyses were used to develop a model to project PMS-related direct and indirect costs. A total of 29.6% (n = 111) of the participants were diagnosed with PMS. A PMS diagnosis was associated with an average annual increase of $59 in direct costs (P increase in direct medical costs and a large increase in indirect costs.

  5. Changes in Federal Water Project Repayment Policies Can Reduce Federal Costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-08-07

    a reimburs - able purpose, the users should share in cost recovery. RECOMMENDATIONS To provide for equitable cost reimbursement on underutilized...Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Reclamation that do not ensure fair and timely recovery of water projects’ reimbursable costs. We made this...such costs for reimbursable project purposes and considering them in future water price determinations, agencies often reas- signed them to

  6. Methods for developing useful estimates of the costs associated with birth defects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Amy P; Canfield, Mark A

    2009-11-01

    Cost estimates for birth defects are useful to policy makers in deciding the best use of resources to prevent these conditions. Much of the effort in this area has focused on spina bifida, in part because cost savings can be estimated from folic acid-preventable cases. However, comprehensive cost-of-illness estimates for this condition may be too outdated, too general, or not applicable to individual states' environments. Using the live birth prevalence for spina bifida in Texas, we applied recent spina bifida cost estimates to approximate total lifetime medical and other costs for an average live birth cohort of spina bifida cases in Texas. In addition, we queried various government programs that provide services for persons with spina bifida to provide program-specific annual costs for this condition. Applying a recently published average lifetime medical cost of $635,000 per case of spina bifida to the average annual birth cohort of 120 Texas cases, an estimated $76 million in direct and indirect medical and other costs will be incurred in Texas over the life span of that cohort. Examples of estimated medical costs for one year are $5 million for infants using actual employer-paid insurance claims data and $6 million combined for children in two public sector programs. Stakeholders and state policy makers may look to state birth defects registries for useful cost data. Although comprehensive state-specific figures are not available, applying prevalence data to existing estimates and obtaining actual claims and program expenditures may help close this information gap.

  7. Estimation of small-scale hydroelectric power plant costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Afonso Henriques Moreira; Silva, Benedito Claudio da; Magalhaes, Ricardo Nogueira

    2010-01-01

    Changes in Brazilian energy scenario through last years such as increase of demand and search for clean and economically feasible renewable energy sources, has stimulated investors to small hydro power plants (SHP) sector. Such characteristics together with several economic incentives, legal and regulatory mechanisms also, have helped and stimulated building of new plants of this kind and have attracted a great number of investors to this sector. Study of costs analysis and feasibility of investments is a study which has been used since long time in SHP business market as several preliminary studies previous to civil project have significant costs which lead us to count with a feasibility analysis from the very beginning of studies, exactly what is suggested in the present methodology. Such feasibility analysis, in the common patterns where basic unit costs of each input remain outstanding, would be very complex due to great difficulty in obtaining information at initial phase of project. In this direction this study brings a contribution for investors as well as for designers of small hydro power plants since it outlines a link between physical and energetic characteristics of small hydro power plant in its total cost. Such link is based in available physical characteristics in initial phase of the project, making possible a previous comparison between arrangements of a central or even the comparison of return of investment between different plants. The resulting benefit being the possibility of choosing centrals with greater economic feasibility disregarding bad undertakings or arrangements with more expressive cost. Final result gives a better delay in return of investment, helps in power, arrangements more optimized and in saving time as well, reducing costs of undertakings. Due to large number of SHP arrangements, we chose for this study the most common in Brazil, plant of medium and large fall, shunting line balance chimney and low pressure conduit. (author)

  8. Fuzzy/Neural Software Estimates Costs of Rocket-Engine Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Freddie; Bourgeois, Edit Kaminsky

    2005-01-01

    The Highly Accurate Cost Estimating Model (HACEM) is a software system for estimating the costs of testing rocket engines and components at Stennis Space Center. HACEM is built on a foundation of adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) a hybrid software concept that combines the adaptive capabilities of neural networks with the ease of development and additional benefits of fuzzy-logic-based systems. In ANFIS, fuzzy inference systems are trained by use of neural networks. HACEM includes selectable subsystems that utilize various numbers and types of inputs, various numbers of fuzzy membership functions, and various input-preprocessing techniques. The inputs to HACEM are parameters of specific tests or series of tests. These parameters include test type (component or engine test), number and duration of tests, and thrust level(s) (in the case of engine tests). The ANFIS in HACEM are trained by use of sets of these parameters, along with costs of past tests. Thereafter, the user feeds HACEM a simple input text file that contains the parameters of a planned test or series of tests, the user selects the desired HACEM subsystem, and the subsystem processes the parameters into an estimate of cost(s).

  9. An investigation into cost overruns for ongoing building projects in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    of Engineering, the Built. Environment, and .... works; identification of causes of cost overruns, as well as the control measures for .... project; poor project schedules and management; increases in the prices of .... conclusion, the magnitude of the cost overrun was reduced after ..... Research in Business, 3(11), pp. 775-780.

  10. Cost estimation and economical evaluation of three configurations of activated sludge process for a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) using simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafarinejad, Shahryar

    2017-09-01

    The activated sludge (AS) process is a type of suspended growth biological wastewater treatment that is used for treating both municipal sewage and a variety of industrial wastewaters. Economical modeling and cost estimation of activated sludge processes are crucial for designing, construction, and forecasting future economical requirements of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). In this study, three configurations containing conventional activated sludge (CAS), extended aeration activated sludge (EAAS), and sequencing batch reactor (SBR) processes for a wastewater treatment plant in Tehran city were proposed and the total project construction, operation labor, maintenance, material, chemical, energy and amortization costs of these WWTPs were calculated and compared. Besides, effect of mixed liquor suspended solid (MLSS) amounts on costs of WWTPs was investigated. Results demonstrated that increase of MLSS decreases the total project construction, material and amortization costs of WWTPs containing EAAS and CAS. In addition, increase of this value increases the total operation, maintenance and energy costs, but does not affect chemical cost of WWTPs containing EAAS and CAS.

  11. On Cost Estimate for Decommissioning of one Isotope Central

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marek Vasko et al

    2010-08-01

    The main scope of this study has been to calculate the future cost for decommission and dismantling the Isotope central at the Studsvik site using the OMEGA CODE. Detailed empirical information is used in the study for 'bench-marking' purposes, in such cases when there is a need to supplement and correct field data from the industry. In the present study, data has been retrieved and organized such that the estimated costs for decommissioning of the Isotope Central become transparent and reliable. This approach gives a preliminary qualitative indication about the accuracy of the cost estimate delivered by the industry

  12. On Cost Estimate for Decommissioning of one Isotope Central

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marek Vasko et al

    2010-08-15

    The main scope of this study has been to calculate the future cost for decommission and dismantling the Isotope central at the Studsvik site using the OMEGA CODE. Detailed empirical information is used in the study for 'bench-marking' purposes, in such cases when there is a need to supplement and correct field data from the industry. In the present study, data has been retrieved and organized such that the estimated costs for decommissioning of the Isotope Central become transparent and reliable. This approach gives a preliminary qualitative indication about the accuracy of the cost estimate delivered by the industry

  13. Cost estimating issues in the Russian integrated system planning context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allentuck, J.

    1996-01-01

    An important factor in the credibility of an optimal capacity expansion plan is the accuracy of cost estimates given the uncertainty of future economic conditions. This paper examines the problems associated with estimating investment and operating costs in the Russian nuclear power context over the period 1994 to 2010

  14. Parametric Cost Modeling of Space Missions Using the Develop New Projects (DMP) Implementation Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, Leigh; Hihn, Jairus; Roust, Kevin; Warfield, Keith

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of a parametric cost model that has been built at JPL to estimate costs of future, deep space, robotic science missions. Due to the recent dramatic changes in JPL business practices brought about by an internal reengineering effort known as develop new products (DNP), high-level historic cost data is no longer considered analogous to future missions. Therefore, the historic data is of little value in forecasting costs for projects developed using the DNP process. This has lead to the development of an approach for obtaining expert opinion and also for combining actual data with expert opinion to provide a cost database for future missions. In addition, the DNP cost model has a maximum of objective cost drivers which reduces the likelihood of model input error. Version 2 is now under development which expands the model capabilities, links it more tightly with key design technical parameters, and is grounded in more rigorous statistical techniques. The challenges faced in building this model will be discussed, as well as it's background, development approach, status, validation, and future plans.

  15. 40 CFR 35.925-18 - Limitation upon project costs incurred prior to award.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Limitation upon project costs incurred...-Clean Water Act § 35.925-18 Limitation upon project costs incurred prior to award. That project... project costs in the following cases: (1) Step 1 work begun after the date of approval by the Regional...

  16. Quantifying IT estimation risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kulk, G.P.; Peters, R.J.; Verhoef, C.

    2009-01-01

    A statistical method is proposed for quantifying the impact of factors that influence the quality of the estimation of costs for IT-enabled business projects. We call these factors risk drivers as they influence the risk of the misestimation of project costs. The method can effortlessly be

  17. Importance of funding in decommissioning cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mingst, B.C.

    1987-01-01

    Decommissioning cost estimates have been made by several study groups for the decommissioning of pressurized-water and boiling-water nuclear power stations. The results of these studies are comparable when corrected for inflation and the differences in contingency factors applied by the study groups. The estimated dismantling costs differ far less than a factor of 2 in all cases, despite the design differences found in the plants that were studied. An analysis of the different methods available for funding the dismantling of these facilities shows the much stronger effect that the choice of funding methods has on the net cost of decommissioning. The total cost of dismantling may vary more than a factor of 4 from one funding method to another, assuming current or recent historical inflation rates. The funding methods evaluated include sinking funds, deposits, negative-salvage value depreciation, and insurance. These funding methods are taken from the NRC's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking description of acceptable funding methods. The funding analysis for this study was performed using the DECOST-86 computer code. The evaluation of funding options for a nuclear facility, and the appropriate choice of the funding method best for that facility, are found to be more important than detailed engineering studies in determining the net cost of decommissioning during the early portions of the plant's operating lifetime

  18. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole.

  19. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I.

    2013-01-01

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole

  20. Methodology for estimating reprocessing costs for nuclear fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, W.L.; Rainey, R.H.

    1980-02-01

    A technological and economic evaluation of reprocessing requirements for alternate fuel cycles requires a common assessment method and a common basis to which various cycles can be related. A methodology is described for the assessment of alternate fuel cycles utilizing a side-by-side comparison of functional flow diagrams of major areas of the reprocessing plant with corresponding diagrams of the well-developed Purex process as installed in the Barnwell Nuclear Fuel Plant (BNFP). The BNFP treats 1500 metric tons of uranium per year (MTU/yr). Complexity and capacity factors are determined for adjusting the estimated facility and equipment costs of BNFP to determine the corresponding costs for the alternate fuel cycle. Costs of capacities other than the reference 1500 MT of heavy metal per year are estimated by the use of scaling factors. Unit costs of reprocessed fuel are calculated using a discounted cash flow analysis for three economic bases to show the effect of low-risk, typical, and high-risk financing methods

  1. Leveraging Real-World Evidence in Disease-Management Decision-Making with a Total Cost of Care Estimator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Thanh-Nghia; Trocio, Jeffrey; Kowal, Stacey; Ferrufino, Cheryl P; Munakata, Julie; South, Dell

    2016-12-01

    Health management is becoming increasingly complex, given a range of care options and the need to balance costs and quality. The ability to measure and understand drivers of costs is critical for healthcare organizations to effectively manage their patient populations. Healthcare decision makers can leverage real-world evidence to explore the value of disease-management interventions in shifting total cost trends. To develop a real-world, evidence-based estimator that examines the impact of disease-management interventions on the total cost of care (TCoC) for a patient population with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Data were collected from a patient-level real-world evidence data set that uses the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database. Pharmacy and medical claims for patients meeting the inclusion or exclusion criteria were combined in longitudinal cohorts with a 180-day preindex and 360-day follow-up period. Descriptive statistics, such as mean and median patient costs and event rates, were derived from a real-world evidence analysis and were used to populate the base-case estimates within the TCoC estimator, an exploratory economic model that was designed to estimate the potential impact of several disease-management activities on the TCoC for a patient population with NVAF. Using Microsoft Excel, the estimator is designed to compare current direct costs of medical care to projected costs by varying assumptions on the impact of disease-management activities and applying the associated changes in cost trends to the affected populations. Disease-management levers are derived from literature-based concepts affecting costs along the NVAF disease continuum. The use of the estimator supports analyses across 4 US geographic regions, age, cost types, and care settings during 1 year. All patients included in the study were continuously enrolled in their health plan (within the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database) between July 1, 2010, and June 30

  2. Estimating the cost of production stoppage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delionback, L. M.

    1979-01-01

    Estimation model considers learning curve quantities, and time of break to forecast losses due to break in production schedule. Major parameters capable of predicting costs are number of units made prior to production sequence, length of production break, and slope of learning curve produced prior to break.

  3. Construction Cost Growth for New Department of Energy Nuclear Facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubic, Jr., William L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2014-05-25

    Cost growth and construction delays are problems that plague many large construction projects including the construction of new Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities. A study was conducted to evaluate cost growth of large DOE construction projects. The purpose of the study was to compile relevant data, consider the possible causes of cost growth, and recommend measures that could be used to avoid extreme cost growth in the future. Both large DOE and non-DOE construction projects were considered in this study. With the exception of Chemical and Metallurgical Research Building Replacement Project (CMRR) and the Mixed Oxide Fuel Fabrication Facility (MFFF), cost growth for DOE Nuclear facilities is comparable to the growth experienced in other mega construction projects. The largest increase in estimated cost was found to occur between early cost estimates and establishing the project baseline during detailed design. Once the project baseline was established, cost growth for DOE nuclear facilities was modest compared to non-DOE mega projects.

  4. A model to estimate the cost of the National Essential Public Health Services Package in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Delu; Wong, Sabrina T; Chen, Wei; Xin, Qianqian; Wang, Lihong; Cui, Mingming; Yin, Tao; Li, Ruili; Zheng, Xiaoguo; Yang, Huiming; Yu, Juanjuan; Chen, Bowen; Yang, Weizhong

    2015-06-06

    In order to address several health challenges, the Chinese government issued the National Essential Public Health Services Package (NEPHSP) in 2009. In China's large cities, the lack of funding for community health centers and consequent lack of comprehensive services and high quality care has become a major challenge. However, no study has been carried out to estimate the cost of delivering the services in the package. This project was to develop a cost estimation approach appropriate to the context and use it to calculate the cost of the NEPHSP in Beijing in 2011. By adjusting models of cost analysis of primary health care and workload indicators of staffing need developed by the World Health Organization, a model was developed to estimate the cost of the services in the package through an intensive interactive process. A total of 17 community health centers from eight administrative districts in Beijing were selected. Their service volume and expenditure data in 2010 were used to evaluate the costs of providing the NEPHSP in Beijing based on the applied model. The total workload of all types of primary health care in 17 sample centers was equivalent to the workload requirement for 14,056,402 standard clinic visits. The total expenditure of the 17 sample centers was 26,329,357.62 USD in 2010. The cost of the workload requirement of one standard clinic visit was 1.87 USD. The workload of the NEPHSP was equivalent to 5,514,777 standard clinic visits (39.23 % of the total workload). The model suggests that the cost of the package in Beijing was 7.95 USD per capita in 2010. The cost of the NEPHSP in urban areas was lower than suburban areas: 7.31 and 8.65 USD respectively. The average investment of 3.97 USD per capita in NEPHSP was lower than the amount needed to meet its running costs. NEPHSP in Beijing is therefore underfunded. Additional investment is needed, and a dynamic cost estimate mechanism should be introduced to ensure services remain adequately funded.

  5. A level playing field-obtaining consistent cost estimates for advanced reactor designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, C.R.; Rohm, H.H.; Humphreys, J.R.

    1987-01-01

    A level playing field in sports is necessary to avoid a situation in which a team has an unfair advantage over its competition. Similarly, rules and guidelines for developing cost estimates can be established which, in effect, provide a level playing field whereby cost estimates for advanced power plant concepts can be presented on a consistent and equitable basis. As an example, consider the capital costs shown in Table 1. Both sets of cost are for the exact same power plant; Estimate 1 is expressed in constant dollars while Estimate 2 is presented in nominal or as-spent dollars. As shown, the costs in Table 1 are not directly comparable. Similar problems can be introduced as a result of differing assumptions in any number of parameters including the scope of the cost estimate, inflation/escalation and interest rates, contingency costs, and site location. Of course, the motivation for having consistent cost estimates is to permit comparison among various concepts. As the U.S. Department of Energy sponsors research and development work on several advanced reactor concepts in which expected cost is a key evaluation parameter, the emphasis in this particular endeavor has been in promoting the comparability of advanced reactor cost estimates among themselves and to existing power plant types. To continue with the analogy, the idea is to lay out the playing field and the rules of the contest such that each team participates in the match on an equal basis with the final score being solely determined by the inherent strengths and abilities of the teams. A description of the playing field and some of the more important rules will now be provided

  6. 78 FR 8389 - Natural Gas Pipelines; Project Cost and Annual Limits

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-06

    ... Director of the Office of Energy Projects. The cost limits for calendar year 2013, as published in Table I.... ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the authority delegated by 18 CFR 375.308(x)(1), the Director of the Office of Energy Projects (OEP) computes and publishes the project cost and annual limits for...

  7. Cost estimates for Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm: a budgetary analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, J. Andrew.

    1991-01-01

    Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm (DS/DS) presented unique challenges for estimating the cost of that conflict. This analysis reviews the cost estimates and methodologies developed for that purpose by DoD, CBO and GAO. It considers the budget climate and the role of foreign cash and in-kind contributions. Finally, it reviews the budgeting innovations used to provide and monitor DS/DS defense spending. At the outset of the crisis, costs were estimated to determine the defense funding requir...

  8. An Evaluation of the Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools (ACEIT) System

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-09-01

    C~4p DTIC S ELECTE fl JAN12 19 .1R ~OF S%. B -U AN EVALUATION OF THE AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATING INTEGRATED TOOLS ( ACEIT ) SYSTEM THESIS Caroline L...Ohio go 91 022 AFIT/GCA/LSQ/89S-5 AN EVALUATION OF THE AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATING INTEGRATED TOOLS ( ACEIT ) SYSTEM THESIS Caroline L. Hanson Major, USAF...Department of Defense. AFIT/GCA/LSQ/89S-5 AN EVALUATION OF THE AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATING INTEGRATED TOOLS ( ACEIT ) SYSTEM THESIS Presented to the

  9. Study on Top-Down Estimation Method of Software Project Planning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Jun-guang; L(U) Ting-jie; ZHAO Yu-mei

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies a new software project planning method under some actual project data in order to make software project plans more effective. From the perspective of system theory, our new method regards a software project plan as an associative unit for study. During a top-down estimation of a software project, Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) method and analogy method are combined to estimate its size, then effort estimation and specific schedules are obtained according to distributions of the phase effort. This allows a set of practical and feasible planning methods to be constructed. Actual data indicate that this set of methods can lead to effective software project planning.

  10. Cost estimate for electrostatically plugged cusp reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolan, T.J.

    1977-01-01

    A preliminary design of an electrostatically plugged cusp reactor was presented in (UCRL-52142(1976)). The capital costs of the various components of this reactor are estimated and totaled for two different blanket configurations: one having an energy multiplication factor M = 1.2, and the other having M = 1.68. The unoptimized direct capital costs for these cases are found to be about 1400 and 950 $/kWe, respectively

  11. Estimation of the cost of large-scale school deworming programmes with benzimidazoles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montresor, A.; Gabrielli, A.F.; Engels, D.

    2017-01-01

    Summary This study estimates the cost of distributing benzimidazole tablets in the context of school deworming programmes: we analysed studies reporting the cost of school deworming from seven countries in four WHO regions. The estimated cost for drug procurement to cover one million children (including customs clearance and international transport) is approximately US$20 000. The estimated financial costs (including the cost of training of personnel, drug transport, social mobilization and monitoring) is, on average, equivalent to US$33 000 per million school-age children with minimal variation in different countries and continents. The estimated economic costs of distribution (including the time spent by teachers, and health personnel at central, provincial and district level) to cover one million children approximately corresponds to US$19 000. This study shows the minimal cost of school deworming activities, but also shows the significant contribution (corresponding to a quarter of the entire cost of the programme) provided by health and education systems in endemic countries even in the case of drug donations and donor support of distribution costs. PMID:19926104

  12. Dynamic Cost-Contingency Management: A Method for Reducing Project Costs While Increasing the Probability of Success

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kujawski, Edouard

    2007-01-01

    In the real world, "Money Allocated is Money Spent" (MAIMS). As a consequence, cost underruns are rarely available to protect against cost overruns, while task overruns are passed on to the total project cost...

  13. Flexible resource management and its effect on project cost and duration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinha, Denis C.; Ahluwalia, Rashpal S.

    2018-06-01

    In practice, most projects result in cost overruns and schedule slippage due to poor resource management. This paper presents an approach that aims at reducing project duration and costs by empowering project managers to assess different scenarios. The proposed approach addresses combinatorial modes for tasks, multi-skilled resources, and multiple calendars for resources. A case study reported in the literature is presented to demonstrate the capabilities of this method. As for practical implications, this approach enhances the decision-making process which results in improved solutions in terms of total project duration and cost. From an academic viewpoint, this paper adds empirical evidence to enrich the existing literature, as it highlights relevant issues to model properly the complexity of real-life projects.

  14. State-Level Estimates of Obesity-Attributable Costs of Absenteeism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreyeva, Tatiana; Luedicke, Joerg; Wang, Y. Claire

    2014-01-01

    Objective To provide state-level estimates of obesity-attributable costs of absenteeism among working adults in the U.S. Methods Nationally-representative data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) for 1998–2008 and from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) for 2012 are examined. The outcome is obesity-attributable workdays missed in the previous year due to health, and their costs to states. Results Obesity, but not overweight, is associated with a significant increase in workdays absent, from 1.1 to 1.7 extra days missed annually compared to normal weight employees. Obesity-attributable absenteeism among American workers costs the nation an estimated $8.65 billion per year. Conclusion Obesity imposes a considerable financial burden on states, accounting for 6.5%–12.6% of total absenteeism costs in the workplace. State legislature and employers should seek effective ways to reduce these costs. PMID:25376405

  15. A comparison of two methods for estimating the technical costs of external beam radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayman, James A.; Lash, Kathy A.; Tao, May L.; Halman, Marc A.

    2000-01-01

    Purpose: To accurately assess the cost-effectiveness of treatment with external beam radiation, it is necessary to have accurate estimates of its cost. One of the most common methods for estimating technical costs has been to convert Medicare charges into costs using Medicare Cost-to-Charge Ratios (CCR). More recently, health care organizations have begun to invest in sophisticated cost-accounting systems (CAS) that are capable of providing procedure-specific cost estimates. The purpose of this study was to examine whether these competing approaches result in similar cost estimates for four typical courses of external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). Methods and Materials: Technical costs were estimated for the following treatment courses: 1) a palliative 'simple' course of 10 fractions using a single field without blocks; 2) a palliative 'complex' course of 10 fractions using two opposed fields with custom blocks; 3) a curative course of 30 fractions for breast cancer using tangent fields followed by an electron beam boost; and 4) a curative course of 35 fractions for prostate cancer using CT-planning and a 4-field technique. Costs were estimated using the CCR approach by multiplying the number of units of each procedure billed by its Medicare charge and CCR and then summing these costs. Procedure-specific cost estimates were obtained from a cost-accounting system, and overall costs were then estimated for the CAS approach by multiplying the number of units billed by the appropriate unit cost estimate and then summing these costs. All costs were estimated using data from 1997. The analysis was also repeated using data from another academic institution to estimate their costs using the CCR and CAS methods, as well as the appropriate relative value units (RVUs) and conversion factor from the 1997 Medicare Fee Schedule to estimate Medicare reimbursement for the four treatment courses. Results: The estimated technical costs for the CCR vs. CAS approaches for the four

  16. Transaction costs of unilateral CDM projects in India-results from an empirical survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krey, Matthias

    2005-01-01

    Recently, transaction costs in the context of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) gained considerable attention as they were generally perceived to be significantly higher than for the other Kyoto Mechanisms. However, empirical evidence on the amount of transaction costs of CDM projects is very scarce. This paper presents the results from an empirical survey designed to quantify transaction costs of potential non-sink CDM projects in India. The definition of transaction costs of CDM projects was derived from recent literature and observations made in the current market for Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). During the survey, parts of transaction costs of 15 projects were quantified. An assessment of the results showed that specific transaction costs depend, to a large extent, on economies of scale in terms of total amount of CERs generated over the crediting period. Total transaction costs were quantified for seven projects. The costs range from 0.07 to 0.47 dollar/t CO 2 . As the projects have an emission reduction between 0.24 Mt CO 2 and 5.00 Mt CO 2 over the crediting period, the results support the assumption of Michaelowa et al. (Climate Policy 3 (2003) 273) that projects with emission reductions smaller than 0.20 Mt CO 2 are not economically viable at current CER prices

  17. Estimating unbiased economies of scale of HIV prevention projects: a case study of Avahan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lépine, Aurélia; Vassall, Anna; Chandrashekar, Sudha; Blanc, Elodie; Le Nestour, Alexis

    2015-04-01

    Governments and donors are investing considerable resources on HIV prevention in order to scale up these services rapidly. Given the current economic climate, providers of HIV prevention services increasingly need to demonstrate that these investments offer good 'value for money'. One of the primary routes to achieve efficiency is to take advantage of economies of scale (a reduction in the average cost of a health service as provision scales-up), yet empirical evidence on economies of scale is scarce. Methodologically, the estimation of economies of scale is hampered by several statistical issues preventing causal inference and thus making the estimation of economies of scale complex. In order to estimate unbiased economies of scale when scaling up HIV prevention services, we apply our analysis to one of the few HIV prevention programmes globally delivered at a large scale: the Indian Avahan initiative. We costed the project by collecting data from the 138 Avahan NGOs and the supporting partners in the first four years of its scale-up, between 2004 and 2007. We develop a parsimonious empirical model and apply a system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and fixed-effects Instrumental Variable (IV) estimators to estimate unbiased economies of scale. At the programme level, we find that, after controlling for the endogeneity of scale, the scale-up of Avahan has generated high economies of scale. Our findings suggest that average cost reductions per person reached are achievable when scaling-up HIV prevention in low and middle income countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Variance in parametric images: direct estimation from parametric projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maguire, R.P.; Leenders, K.L.; Spyrou, N.M.

    2000-01-01

    Recent work has shown that it is possible to apply linear kinetic models to dynamic projection data in PET in order to calculate parameter projections. These can subsequently be back-projected to form parametric images - maps of parameters of physiological interest. Critical to the application of these maps, to test for significant changes between normal and pathophysiology, is an assessment of the statistical uncertainty. In this context, parametric images also include simple integral images from, e.g., [O-15]-water used to calculate statistical parametric maps (SPMs). This paper revisits the concept of parameter projections and presents a more general formulation of the parameter projection derivation as well as a method to estimate parameter variance in projection space, showing which analysis methods (models) can be used. Using simulated pharmacokinetic image data we show that a method based on an analysis in projection space inherently calculates the mathematically rigorous pixel variance. This results in an estimation which is as accurate as either estimating variance in image space during model fitting, or estimation by comparison across sets of parametric images - as might be done between individuals in a group pharmacokinetic PET study. The method based on projections has, however, a higher computational efficiency, and is also shown to be more precise, as reflected in smooth variance distribution images when compared to the other methods. (author)

  19. An Exploratory Study of Cost Engineering in Axiomatic Design: Creation of the Cost Model Based on an FR-DP Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Taesik; Jeziorek, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Large complex projects cost large sums of money throughout their life cycle for a variety of reasons and causes. For such large programs, the credible estimation of the project cost, a quick assessment of the cost of making changes, and the management of the project budget with effective cost reduction determine the viability of the project. Cost engineering that deals with these issues requires a rigorous method and systematic processes. This paper introduces a logical framework to a&e effective cost engineering. The framework is built upon Axiomatic Design process. The structure in the Axiomatic Design process provides a good foundation to closely tie engineering design and cost information together. The cost framework presented in this paper is a systematic link between the functional domain (FRs), physical domain (DPs), cost domain (CUs), and a task/process-based model. The FR-DP map relates a system s functional requirements to design solutions across all levels and branches of the decomposition hierarchy. DPs are mapped into CUs, which provides a means to estimate the cost of design solutions - DPs - from the cost of the physical entities in the system - CUs. The task/process model describes the iterative process ot-developing each of the CUs, and is used to estimate the cost of CUs. By linking the four domains, this framework provides a superior traceability from requirements to cost information.

  20. Top-down and bottom-up approaches for cost estimating new reactor designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berbey, P.; Gautier, G.M.; Duflo, D.; Rouyer, J.L.

    2007-01-01

    For several years, Generation-4 designs will be 'pre-conceptual' for the less mature concepts and 'preliminary' for the more mature concepts. In this situation, appropriate data for some of the plant systems may be lacking to develop a bottom-up cost estimate. Therefore, a more global approach, the Top-Down Approach (TDA), is needed to help the designers and decision makers in comparing design options. It utilizes more or less simple models for cost estimating the different parts of a design. TDA cost estimating effort applies to a whole functional element whose cost is approached by similar estimations coming from existing data, ratios and models, for a given range of variation of parameters. Modeling is used when direct analogy is not possible. There are two types of models, global and specific ones. Global models are applied to cost modules related to Code Of Account. Exponential formulae such as Ci = Ai + (Bi x Pi n ) are used when there are cost data for comparable modules in nuclear or other industries. Specific cost models are developed for major specific components of the plant: - process equipment such as reactor vessel, steam generators or large heat exchangers. - buildings, with formulae estimating the construction cost from base cost of m3 of building volume. - systems, when unit costs, cost ratios and models are used, depending on the level of detail of the design. Bottom Up Approach (BUA), which is based on unit prices coming from similar equipment or from manufacturer consulting, is very valuable and gives better cost estimations than TDA when it can be applied, that is at a rather late stage of the design. Both approaches are complementary when some parts of the design are detailed enough to be estimated by BUA, and when BUA results are used to check TDA results and to improve TDA models. This methodology is applied to the HTR (High Temperature Reactor) concept and to an advanced PWR design

  1. Estimation of costs for fabrication of pressurized-water reactor fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Judkins, R.R.; Olsen, A.R.

    1979-01-01

    To provide a reference case on which to base cost estimates of the several fuel cycles to be considered, the facility, equipment, and operating requirements for the fabrication of fuel for current-design pressurized-water reactors were examined. From an analysis of these requirements, the capital and operating costs of a plant with a capacity of two metric tons of heavy metal per day (MTHM/day) were estimated. In a cash flow analysis, the lifetime of the plant was assumed to be 20 y, and the income from the sale of nuclear fuel assemblies over this period was equated to the total capital and operating expenses of the plant, including a specified 15% return on investment. In this way a levelized unit price for the fuel was obtained. The effects of inflation were not considered since the purpose of these estimates and the determination of unit price was to permit comparison of different types of fuels. The capital costs of the fuel fabrication plant were estimated at $32 million for the facility--land, site preparation, building--and $34 million for equipment. Annual operating costs including labor, management, materials, and utilities were estimated to be $36.5 million. From these estimates, the unit price for fabricating the fuel for the reference pressurized-water reactor was determined to be $138/kg of heavy metal or $63,600 per fuel assembly

  2. Final report on cost estimate of forward superconducting air core toroid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, T.

    1992-12-01

    An independent cost-estimate for key components of the forward superconducting air core toroid (ACT) was obtained in May 1992 from an experienced manufacturer of large cryogenic vessels. This new cost estimate is summarized in this report. It implies that a suitably designed ACT may have a cost which is approximately equal to that of the presently designed SDC forward iron core toroid

  3. Fusion reactor design studies: standard accounts for cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulte, S.C.; Willke, T.L.; Young, J.R.

    1978-05-01

    The fusion reactor design studies--standard accounts for cost estimates provides a common format from which to assess the economic character of magnetically confined fusion reactor design concepts. The format will aid designers in the preparation of design concept costs estimates and also provide policymakers with a tool to assist in appraising which design concept may be economically promising. The format sets forth a categorization and accounting procedure to be used when estimating fusion reactor busbar energy cost that can be easily and consistently applied. Reasons for developing the procedure, explanations of the procedure, justifications for assumptions made in the procedure, and the applicability of the procedure are described in this document. Adherence to the format when evaluating prospective fusion reactor design concepts will result in the identification of the more promising design concepts thus enabling the fusion power alternatives with better economic potential to be quickly and efficiently developed

  4. Cost Based Value Stream Mapping as a Sustainable Construction Tool for Underground Pipeline Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Gunduz

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with application of Value Stream Mapping (VSM as a sustainable construction tool on a real construction project of installation of underground pipelines. VSM was adapted to reduce the high percentage of non-value-added activities and time wastes during each construction stage and the paper searched for an effective way to consider the cost for studied construction of underground pipeline. This paper is unique in its way that it adopts cost implementation of VSM to improve the productivity in underground pipeline projects. The data was observed and collected from site during construction, indicating the cycle time, value added and non-value added of each construction stage. The current state was built based on these details. This was an eye-opening exercise and a process management tool as a trigger for improvement. After the current state assessment, a future state is attempted by Value Stream Mapping tool balancing the resources using a Line of Balance (LOB technique. Moreover, a sustainable cost estimation model was developed during current state and future state to calculate the cost of underground pipeline construction. The result shows a cost reduction of 20.8% between current and future states. This reflects the importance of the cost based Value Stream Mapping in construction as a sustainable measurement tool. This new tool could be utilized in construction industry to add the sustainability and effective cost management.

  5. 1981 transactions of the American Association of Cost Engineers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1981-01-01

    The 1981 proceedings of the American Association of Cost Engineers includes papers on economic evaluation of energy projects, coal-oil mixture FPL's Sanford COM demonstration project, conception and evaluation of a large industrial project by using linear programming, geothermal power generation, conceptual estimating of power plants, management of nuclear retrofit, the future of shale oil, cost engineering in the Arabian Gulf, and the application of probabilistic cost estimating to an advanced energy system, among other topics

  6. Estimation of the cost of large-scale school deworming programmes with benzimidazoles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montresor, A; Gabrielli, A F; Diarra, A; Engels, D

    2010-02-01

    This study estimates the cost of distributing benzimidazole tablets in the context of school deworming programmes: we analysed studies reporting the cost of school deworming from seven countries in four WHO regions. The estimated cost for drug procurement to cover one million children (including customs clearance and international transport) is approximately US$20000. The estimated financial costs (including the cost of training of personnel, drug transport, social mobilization and monitoring) is, on average, equivalent to US$33000 per million school-age children with minimal variation in different countries and continents. The estimated economic costs of distribution (including the time spent by teachers, and health personnel at central, provincial and district level) to cover one million children approximately corresponds to US$19000. This study shows the minimal cost of school deworming activities, but also shows the significant contribution (corresponding to a quarter of the entire cost of the programme) provided by health and education systems in endemic countries even in the case of drug donations and donor support of distribution costs. Copyright 2009 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A practical approach for calculating reliable cost estimates from observational data: application to cost analyses in maternal and child health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salemi, Jason L; Comins, Meg M; Chandler, Kristen; Mogos, Mulubrhan F; Salihu, Hamisu M

    2013-08-01

    Comparative effectiveness research (CER) and cost-effectiveness analysis are valuable tools for informing health policy and clinical care decisions. Despite the increased availability of rich observational databases with economic measures, few researchers have the skills needed to conduct valid and reliable cost analyses for CER. The objectives of this paper are to (i) describe a practical approach for calculating cost estimates from hospital charges in discharge data using publicly available hospital cost reports, and (ii) assess the impact of using different methods for cost estimation in maternal and child health (MCH) studies by conducting economic analyses on gestational diabetes (GDM) and pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity. In Florida, we have constructed a clinically enhanced, longitudinal, encounter-level MCH database covering over 2.3 million infants (and their mothers) born alive from 1998 to 2009. Using this as a template, we describe a detailed methodology to use publicly available data to calculate hospital-wide and department-specific cost-to-charge ratios (CCRs), link them to the master database, and convert reported hospital charges to refined cost estimates. We then conduct an economic analysis as a case study on women by GDM and pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) status to compare the impact of using different methods on cost estimation. Over 60 % of inpatient charges for birth hospitalizations came from the nursery/labor/delivery units, which have very different cost-to-charge markups (CCR = 0.70) than the commonly substituted hospital average (CCR = 0.29). Using estimated mean, per-person maternal hospitalization costs for women with GDM as an example, unadjusted charges ($US14,696) grossly overestimated actual cost, compared with hospital-wide ($US3,498) and department-level ($US4,986) CCR adjustments. However, the refined cost estimation method, although more accurate, did not alter our conclusions that infant/maternal hospitalization costs

  8. Model improves oil field operating cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaeser, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    A detailed operating cost model that forecasts operating cost profiles toward the end of a field's life should be constructed for testing depletion strategies and plans for major oil fields. Developing a good understanding of future operating cost trends is important. Incorrectly forecasting the trend can result in bad decision making regarding investments and reservoir operating strategies. Recent projects show that significant operating expense reductions can be made in the latter stages o field depletion without significantly reducing the expected ultimate recoverable reserves. Predicting future operating cost trends is especially important for operators who are currently producing a field and must forecast the economic limit of the property. For reasons presented in this article, it is usually not correct to either assume that operating expense stays fixed in dollar terms throughout the lifetime of a field, nor is it correct to assume that operating costs stay fixed on a dollar per barrel basis

  9. Spreadsheet tool for estimating noise reduction costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, L.; Senden, V.; Leszczynski, Y.

    2009-01-01

    The Northeast Capital Industrial Association (NCIA) represents industry in Alberta's industrial heartland. The organization is in the process of developing a regional noise management plan (RNMP) for their member companies. The RNMP includes the development of a noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool to conduct reviews of practical noise control treatments available for individual plant equipment, inclusive of ranges of noise attenuation achievable, which produces a budgetary prediction of the installed cost of practical noise control treatments. This paper discussed the noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool, with particular reference to noise control best practices approaches and spreadsheet tool development such as prerequisite, assembling data required, approach, and unit pricing database. Use and optimization of the noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool was also discussed. It was concluded that the noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool is an easy interactive tool to estimate implementation costs related to different strategies and options of noise control mitigating measures and was very helpful in gaining insight for noise control planning purposes. 2 tabs.

  10. A non-stationary cost-benefit analysis approach for extreme flood estimation to explore the nexus of 'Risk, Cost and Non-stationarity'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Wei

    2017-11-01

    Cost-benefit analysis is commonly used for engineering planning and design problems in practice. However, previous cost-benefit based design flood estimation is based on stationary assumption. This study develops a non-stationary cost-benefit based design flood estimation approach. This approach integrates a non-stationary probability distribution function into cost-benefit analysis, and influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost (including flood damage and construction costs) and design flood estimation can be quantified. To facilitate design flood selections, a 'Risk-Cost' analysis approach is developed, which reveals the nexus of extreme flood risk, expected total cost and design life periods. Two basins, with 54-year and 104-year flood data respectively, are utilized to illustrate the application. It is found that the developed approach can effectively reveal changes of expected total cost and extreme floods in different design life periods. In addition, trade-offs are found between extreme flood risk and expected total cost, which reflect increases in cost to mitigate risk. Comparing with stationary approaches which generate only one expected total cost curve and therefore only one design flood estimation, the proposed new approach generate design flood estimation intervals and the 'Risk-Cost' approach selects a design flood value from the intervals based on the trade-offs between extreme flood risk and expected total cost. This study provides a new approach towards a better understanding of the influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost and design floods, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary design flood estimation across the world.

  11. Projected Lifetime Healthcare Costs Associated with HIV Infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nakagawa, Fumiyo; Miners, Alec; Smith, Colette J

    2015-01-01

    computer simulation model to project the distribution of lifetime outcomes and costs of men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) infected with HIV in 2013 aged 30, over 10,000 simulations. We assumed a resource-rich setting with no loss to follow-up, and that standards and costs of healthcare management remain...

  12. Cost Model for Digital Preservation: Cost of Digital Migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulla Bøgvad Kejser

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The Danish Ministry of Culture has funded a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project was to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities and to provide a basis for comparing and estimating future cost requirements for digital preservation. In this study we describe an activity-based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the Open Archice Information System (OAIS Reference Model. Within this framework, which we denote the Cost Model for Digital Preservation (CMDP, the focus is on costing the functional entity Preservation Planning from the OAIS and digital migration activities. In order to estimate these costs we have identified cost-critical activities by analysing the functions in the OAIS model and the flows between them. The analysis has been supplemented with findings from the literature, and our own knowledge and experience. The identified cost-critical activities have subsequently been deconstructed into measurable components, cost dependencies have been examined, and the resulting equations expressed in a spreadsheet. Currently the model can calculate the cost of different migration scenarios for a series of preservation formats for text, images, sound, video, geodata, and spreadsheets. In order to verify the model it has been tested on cost data from two different migration projects at the Danish National Archives (DNA. The study found that the OAIS model provides a sound overall framework for the cost breakdown, but that some functions need additional detailing in order to cost activities accurately. Running the two sets of empirical data showed among other things that the model underestimates the cost of manpower-intensive migration projects, while it reinstates an often underestimated cost, which is the cost of developing migration software. The model has proven useful for estimating the

  13. Methodology applied by IRSN for nuclear accident cost estimations in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    This report describes the methodology used by IRSN to estimate the cost of potential nuclear accidents in France. It concerns possible accidents involving pressurized water reactors leading to radioactive releases in the environment. These accidents have been grouped in two accident families called: severe accidents and major accidents. Two model scenarios have been selected to represent each of these families. The report discusses the general methodology of nuclear accident cost estimation. The crucial point is that all cost should be considered: if not, the cost is underestimated which can lead to negative consequences for the value attributed to safety and for crisis preparation. As a result, the overall cost comprises many components: the most well-known is offsite radiological costs, but there are many others. The proposed estimates have thus required using a diversity of methods which are described in this report. Figures are presented at the end of this report. Among other things, they show that purely radiological costs only represent a non-dominant part of foreseeable economic consequences

  14. Estimated incremental costs for NRC licensees to implement the US/IAEA safeguards agreement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, R.G.; Brouns, R.J.; Chockie, A.D.; Davenport, L.C.; Merrill, J.A.

    1979-01-01

    A study was recently completed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commision (NRC) by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to identify the incremental cost of implementing the US/IAEA safeguards treaty agreement to eligible NRC licensees. Sources for the study were cost estimates from several licensees who will be affected by the agreement and cost analyses by PNL staff. The initial cost to all eligible licensees to implement the agreement is estimated by PNL to range from $1.9 to $7.2 million. The annual cost to these same licensees for the required accounting and reporting activities is estimated at $0.5 to $1.5 million. Annual inspection costs to the industry for the limited IAEA inspection being assumed is estimated at $80,000 to $160,000

  15. Estimated annual cost of arterial hypertension treatment in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dib, Murilo W; Riera, Rachel; Ferraz, Marcos B

    2010-02-01

    To estimate the direct annual cost of systemic arterial hypertension (SAH) treatment in Brazil's public and private health care systems, assess its economic impact on the total health care budget, and determine its proportion of the 2005 gross domestic product (GDP). A decision tree model was used to determine direct costs based on estimated use of various resources in SAH diagnosis and care, including treatment (medication and non-medication), complementary exams, doctor visits, nutritional assessments, and emergency room visits. Estimated direct annual cost of SAH treatment was approximately US$ 398.9 million for the public health care system and US$ 272.7 million for the private system, representing 0.08% of the 2005 GDP (ranging from 0.05% to 0.16%). With total health care expenses comprising about 7.6% of Brazil's GDP, this cost represented 1.11% of overall health care costs (0.62% to 2.06%)-1.43% of total expenses for the Unified Healthcare System (Sistema Unico de Saúde, SUS) (0.79% to 2.75%) and 0.83% of expenses for the private health care system (0.47% to 1.48%). Conclusion. To guarantee public or private health care based on the principles of universality and equality, with limited available resources, efforts must be focused on educating the population on prevention and treatment compliance in diseases such as SAH that require significant health resources.

  16. The cost of universal health care in India: a model based estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinja, Shankar; Bahuguna, Pankaj; Pinto, Andrew D; Sharma, Atul; Bharaj, Gursimer; Kumar, Vishal; Tripathy, Jaya Prasad; Kaur, Manmeet; Kumar, Rajesh

    2012-01-01

    As high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses pose heavy financial burden on the families, Government of India is considering a variety of financing and delivery options to universalize health care services. Hence, an estimate of the cost of delivering universal health care services is needed. We developed a model to estimate recurrent and annual costs for providing health services through a mix of public and private providers in Chandigarh located in northern India. Necessary health services required to deliver good quality care were defined by the Indian Public Health Standards. National Sample Survey data was utilized to estimate disease burden. In addition, morbidity and treatment data was collected from two secondary and two tertiary care hospitals. The unit cost of treatment was estimated from the published literature. For diseases where data on treatment cost was not available, we collected data on standard treatment protocols and cost of care from local health providers. We estimate that the cost of universal health care delivery through the existing mix of public and private health institutions would be INR 1713 (USD 38, 95%CI USD 18-73) per person per annum in India. This cost would be 24% higher, if branded drugs are used. Extrapolation of these costs to entire country indicates that Indian government needs to spend 3.8% (2.1%-6.8%) of the GDP for universalizing health care services. The cost of universal health care delivered through a combination of public and private providers is estimated to be INR 1713 per capita per year in India. Important issues such as delivery strategy for ensuring quality, reducing inequities in access, and managing the growth of health care demand need be explored.

  17. Identifying Contractors’ Planned Quality Costs in Indonesian Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puti F. Marzuki

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a very competitive construction industry, quality costs have to be measured to be able to identify potential quality problem areas and to focus attention on work output improvement opportunities. The awareness of contractors on the importance of quality costs could be reflected in the extent of their quality costs planning. This paper presents an identification of planned quality costs in three construction projects executed by two large Indonesian contractors, a state-owned company and a private company in Jakarta. The objective is to enable the contractors to elaborate their quality costs planning and thereby improve their work output based on the findi ngs. Quality costs are first grouped into three categories: prevention, appraisal, and failure costs. Based on the works of previous researchers, a list of quality management activities that should be covered in each quality costs category is then created. The contractors’ planned quality costs data for each category are identified and collected through interviews and questionnaire surveys that refer to the list. Quality costs are expressed as a percentage of contract value. It is revealed that although large contractors already have certain knowledge on quality costs in construction projects, these costs are not planned in a structured way through an analysis of systematic quality costs records. Through cost categorization it is also shown that higher prevention and appraisal costs lead to lower failure costs. It is then concluded that a lot of work is still to be done by the contractors to set up a quality costs recording system which can serve as a basis for their quality improvement planning.

  18. U.S. Refinery compliance costs - the elements of and estimate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musgrove, J.G.; Swain, E.J.

    1993-01-01

    A recent National Petroleum Council study identified the environmental costs facing the refining industry from 1995 through 2010. Four broad areas were identified: air pollution control, wastewater treatment, solid and hazardous waste treatment, and occupational health and safety. This paper will present the technical issues and engineering information required to produce an estimate of cost impact. For each of the four areas of impact, the kinds of information required of the refinery manager in order to build an estimate will be tabulated and discussed. For air pollution control, issues will include size and type of unit, product mix of output, and the impact of facility location relative to non-attainment issues. For wastewater, issues will include stormwater segregation, benzene NESHAP, and other treatment system requirements. For hazardous waste treatment, issues will include groundwater protection and leak detection and contaminated soil segregation. For occupational health and safety, issues will include process changes required and worker training required. For all issues, the major dollar factors will be identified as a function of the technical data available. The refinery costs in each areas were estimated for seven groups of refinery sizes. The presentation will conclude with tabulation of cost estimates for each area of investigation and each refinery group. The total costs for each refinery group over the fifteen-year period will also be presented

  19. Cost estimation of thermal and nuclear power using annual securities report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, Yuji; Nagatomi, Yu; Murakami, Tomoko

    2011-01-01

    Cost estimation of generation cost derived from various power sources was widely conducted using model plant or annual securities report of electric utilities. Although annual securities report method was subjected to some limitation in methodology itself, useful information was obtained for cost comparison of thermal and nuclear power. Studies on generation cost evaluation of thermal and nuclear power based on this method during past five years showed that nuclear power cost was almost stable 7 Yen/kWh and thermal power cost was varying 9 - 12 Yen/kWh dependent on violent fluctuations of primary energy cost. Nuclear power was expected cost increase due to enhanced safety requirements or damage compensation of accidents as well as decommissioning and back-end cost, which were difficult to evaluate accurately with annual securities report. Further comprehensive and accurate cost estimation should be encouraged including these items. (T. Tanaka)

  20. Detection-Guided Fast Affine Projection Channel Estimator for Speech Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Wu Jennifer

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available In various adaptive estimation applications, such as acoustic echo cancellation within teleconferencing systems, the input signal is a highly correlated speech. This, in general, leads to extremely slow convergence of the NLMS adaptive FIR estimator. As a result, for such applications, the affine projection algorithm (APA or the low-complexity version, the fast affine projection (FAP algorithm, is commonly employed instead of the NLMS algorithm. In such applications, the signal propagation channel may have a relatively low-dimensional impulse response structure, that is, the number m of active or significant taps within the (discrete-time modelled channel impulse response is much less than the overall tap length n of the channel impulse response. For such cases, we investigate the inclusion of an active-parameter detection-guided concept within the fast affine projection FIR channel estimator. Simulation results indicate that the proposed detection-guided fast affine projection channel estimator has improved convergence speed and has lead to better steady-state performance than the standard fast affine projection channel estimator, especially in the important case of highly correlated speech input signals.

  1. Estimated Incident Cost Savings in Shipping Due to Inspections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Knapp (Sabine); G.E. Bijwaard (Govert); C. Heij (Christiaan)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe effectiveness of safety inspections has been analysed from various angles, but until now, relatively little attention has been given to translate risk reduction into incident cost savings. This paper quantifies estimated cost savings based on port state control inspections and

  2. Site restoration: Estimation of attributable costs from plutonium-dispersal accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chanin, D.I.; Murfin, W.B.

    1996-05-01

    A nuclear weapons accident is an extremely unlikely event due to the extensive care taken in operations. However, under some hypothetical accident conditions, plutonium might be dispersed to the environment. This would result in costs being incurred by the government to remediate the site and compensate for losses. This study is a multi-disciplinary evaluation of the potential scope of the post-accident response that includes technical factors, current and proposed legal requirements and constraints, as well as social/political factors that could influence decision making. The study provides parameters that can be used to assess economic costs for accidents postulated to occur in urban areas, Midwest farmland, Western rangeland, and forest. Per-area remediation costs have been estimated, using industry-standard methods, for both expedited and extended remediation. Expedited remediation costs have been evaluated for highways, airports, and urban areas. Extended remediation costs have been evaluated for all land uses except highways and airports. The inclusion of cost estimates in risk assessments, together with the conventional estimation of doses and health effects, allows a fuller understanding of the post-accident environment. The insights obtained can be used to minimize economic risks by evaluation of operational and design alternatives, and through development of improved capabilities for accident response

  3. Site restoration: Estimation of attributable costs from plutonium-dispersal accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chanin, D.I.; Murfin, W.B. [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1996-05-01

    A nuclear weapons accident is an extremely unlikely event due to the extensive care taken in operations. However, under some hypothetical accident conditions, plutonium might be dispersed to the environment. This would result in costs being incurred by the government to remediate the site and compensate for losses. This study is a multi-disciplinary evaluation of the potential scope of the post-accident response that includes technical factors, current and proposed legal requirements and constraints, as well as social/political factors that could influence decision making. The study provides parameters that can be used to assess economic costs for accidents postulated to occur in urban areas, Midwest farmland, Western rangeland, and forest. Per-area remediation costs have been estimated, using industry-standard methods, for both expedited and extended remediation. Expedited remediation costs have been evaluated for highways, airports, and urban areas. Extended remediation costs have been evaluated for all land uses except highways and airports. The inclusion of cost estimates in risk assessments, together with the conventional estimation of doses and health effects, allows a fuller understanding of the post-accident environment. The insights obtained can be used to minimize economic risks by evaluation of operational and design alternatives, and through development of improved capabilities for accident response.

  4. Sharing the cost of risky projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Moulin, Hervé

    2018-01-01

    Users share the cost of unreliable non-rival projects (items). For instance, industry partners pay today for R&D that may or may not deliver a cure to some viruses, agents pay for the edges of a network that will cover their connectivity needs, but the edges may fail, etc. Each user has a binary...

  5. 30 CFR 203.89 - What is in a cost report?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... based on historical costs, engineering estimates, or analogous projects. These costs cover: (1... evaluations). (d) Transportation costs, based on historical costs, engineering estimates, or analogous... lines; and (3) Gas plant processing for natural gas liquids. (e) Abandonment costs, based on historical...

  6. A Cost Simulation Tool for Estimating the Cost of Operating Government Owned and Operated Ships

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-09-01

    Horngren , C.T., Foster, G., Datar, S.M., Cost Accounting : A Management Emphasis, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1994 IBM Corporation, A Graphical...4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A COST SIMULATION TOOL FOR 5. FUNDING NUMBERS ESTIMATING THE COST OF OPERATING GOVERNMENT OWNED AND OPERATED SHIPS 6. AUTHOR( S ...normally does not present a problem to the accounting department. The final category, the cost of operating the government owned and operated ships is

  7. Projected costs of electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cameron, R.

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes the outcomes of a study on the projected costs of generating electricity. It presents the latest data available on electricity generating costs for a wide variety of fuels and technologies, including coal, gas, nuclear, hydro, onshore and offshore wind, biomass, solar, wave and tidal. The study reaches 2 key conclusions. First, at a 5% real interest rate, nuclear energy is the most competitive solution for base-load electricity generation followed by coal-fired plants without carbon capture and natural gas-fired combined plants. It should be noted that coal with carbon capture has not reached a commercial phase. Second, at a 10% interest rate, nuclear remains the most competitive in Asia and North America but in Europe, coal without carbon capture equipment, followed by coal with carbon capture equipment, and gas-fired combined cycle turbines are overall more competitive than nuclear energy. The results highlight the paramount importance of interest rates (this dependence is a direct consequence of the nuclear energy's high capital costs) and of the carbon price. For instance if we assume a 10% interest rate and a cost of 50 dollar per tonne of CO 2 , nuclear energy would become competitive against both coal and gas. (A.C.)

  8. Cost Accounting System for fusion studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, W.R.; Keeton, D.C.; Thomson, S.L.

    1985-12-01

    A Cost Accounting System that is applicable to all magnetic fusion reactor design studies has been developed. This system provides: (1) definitions of the elements of cost and methods for the combination of these elements to form a cost estimate; (2) a Code of Accounts that uses a functional arrangement for identification of the plant components; and (3) definitions and methods to analyze actual cost data so that the data can be directly reported into this Cost Accounting System. The purpose of the Cost Accounting System is to provide the structure for the development of a fusion cost data base and for the development of validated cost estimating procedures. This system has been developed through use at the Fusion Engineering Design Center (FEDC) and has been applied to different confinement concepts (tokamaks and tandem mirrors) and to different types of projects (experimental devices and commercial power plants). The use of this Cost Accounting System by all magnetic fusion projects will promote the development of a common cost data base, allow the direct comparison of cost estimates, and ultimately establish the cost credibility of the program

  9. Cost Accounting System for fusion studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, W.R.; Keeton, D.C.; Thomson, S.L.

    1985-12-01

    A Cost Accounting System that is applicable to all magnetic fusion reactor design studies has been developed. This system provides: (1) definitions of the elements of cost and methods for the combination of these elements to form a cost estimate; (2) a Code of Accounts that uses a functional arrangement for identification of the plant components; and (3) definitions and methods to analyze actual cost data so that the data can be directly reported into this Cost Accounting System. The purpose of the Cost Accounting System is to provide the structure for the development of a fusion cost data base and for the development of validated cost estimating procedures. This system has been developed through use at the Fusion Engineering Design Center (FEDC) and has been applied to different confinement concepts (tokamaks and tandem mirrors) and to different types of projects (experimental devices and commercial power plants). The use of this Cost Accounting System by all magnetic fusion projects will promote the development of a common cost data base, allow the direct comparison of cost estimates, and ultimately establish the cost credibility of the program.

  10. Estimates and implications of the costs of compliance with biosafety regulations in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falck-Zepeda, Jose; Yorobe, Jose; Husin, Bahagiawati Amir; Manalo, Abraham; Lokollo, Erna; Ramon, Godfrey; Zambrano, Patricia; Sutrisno

    2012-01-01

    Estimating the cost of compliance with biosafety regulations is important as it helps developers focus their investments in producer development. We provide estimates for the cost of compliance for a set of technologies in Indonesia, the Philippines and other countries. These costs vary from US $100,000 to 1.7 million. These are estimates of regulatory costs and do not include product development or deployment costs. Cost estimates need to be compared with potential gains when the technology is introduced in these countries and the gains in knowledge accumulate during the biosafety assessment process. Although the cost of compliance is important, time delays and uncertainty are even more important and may have an adverse impact on innovations reaching farmers.

  11. The cost of universal health care in India: a model based estimate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shankar Prinja

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: As high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses pose heavy financial burden on the families, Government of India is considering a variety of financing and delivery options to universalize health care services. Hence, an estimate of the cost of delivering universal health care services is needed. METHODS: We developed a model to estimate recurrent and annual costs for providing health services through a mix of public and private providers in Chandigarh located in northern India. Necessary health services required to deliver good quality care were defined by the Indian Public Health Standards. National Sample Survey data was utilized to estimate disease burden. In addition, morbidity and treatment data was collected from two secondary and two tertiary care hospitals. The unit cost of treatment was estimated from the published literature. For diseases where data on treatment cost was not available, we collected data on standard treatment protocols and cost of care from local health providers. RESULTS: We estimate that the cost of universal health care delivery through the existing mix of public and private health institutions would be INR 1713 (USD 38, 95%CI USD 18-73 per person per annum in India. This cost would be 24% higher, if branded drugs are used. Extrapolation of these costs to entire country indicates that Indian government needs to spend 3.8% (2.1%-6.8% of the GDP for universalizing health care services. CONCLUSION: The cost of universal health care delivered through a combination of public and private providers is estimated to be INR 1713 per capita per year in India. Important issues such as delivery strategy for ensuring quality, reducing inequities in access, and managing the growth of health care demand need be explored.

  12. The Hospitalization Costs of Diabetes and Hypertension Complications in Zimbabwe: Estimations and Correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutsa P. Mutowo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Treating complications associated with diabetes and hypertension imposes significant costs on health care systems. This study estimated the hospitalization costs for inpatients in a public hospital in Zimbabwe. Methods. The study was retrospective and utilized secondary data from medical records. Total hospitalization costs were estimated using generalized linear models. Results. The median cost and interquartile range (IQR for patients with diabetes, $994 (385–1553 mean $1319 (95% CI: 981–1657, was higher than patients with hypertension, $759 (494–1147 mean $914 (95% CI: 825–1003. Female patients aged below 65 years with diabetes had the highest estimated mean costs ($1467 (95% CI: 1177–1828. Wound care had the highest estimated mean cost of all procedures, $2884 (95% CI: 2004–4149 for patients with diabetes and $2239 (95% CI: 1589–3156 for patients with hypertension. Age below 65 years, medical procedures (amputation, wound care, dialysis, and physiotherapy, the presence of two or more comorbidities, and being prescribed two or more drugs were associated with significantly higher hospitalization costs. Conclusion. Our estimated costs could be used to evaluate and improve current inpatient treatment and management of patients with diabetes and hypertension and determine the most cost-effective interventions to prevent complications and comorbidities.

  13. Estimating the costs of intensity-modulated and 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy in Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, J H E; McGowan, T; Redmond-Misner, R; Beca, J; Warde, P; Gutierrez, E; Hoch, J S

    2016-06-01

    Radiotherapy is a common treatment for many cancers, but up-to-date estimates of the costs of radiotherapy are lacking. In the present study, we estimated the unit costs of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (imrt) and 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-crt) in Ontario. An activity-based costing model was developed to estimate the costs of imrt and 3D-crt in prostate cancer. It included the costs of equipment, staff, and supporting infrastructure. The framework was subsequently adapted to estimate the costs of radiotherapy in breast cancer and head-and-neck cancer. We also tested various scenarios by varying the program maturity and the use of volumetric modulated arc therapy (vmat) alongside imrt. From the perspective of the health care system, treating prostate cancer with imrt and 3D-crt respectively cost $12,834 and $12,453 per patient. The cost of radiotherapy ranged from $5,270 to $14,155 and was sensitive to analytic perspective, radiation technique, and disease site. Cases of head-and-neck cancer were the most costly, being driven by treatment complexity and fractions per treatment. Although imrt was more costly than 3D-crt, its cost will likely decline over time as programs mature and vmat is incorporated. Our costing model can be modified to estimate the costs of 3D-crt and imrt for various disease sites and settings. The results demonstrate the important role of capital costs in studies of radiotherapy cost from a health system perspective, which our model can accommodate. In addition, our study established the need for future analyses of imrt cost to consider how vmat affects time consumption.

  14. Survey of State-Level Cost and Benefit Estimates of Renewable Portfolio Standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heeter, J.; Barbose, G.; Bird, L.; Weaver, S.; Flores-Espino, F.; Kuskova-Burns, K.; Wiser, R.

    2014-05-01

    Most renewable portfolio standards (RPS) have five or more years of implementation experience, enabling an assessment of their costs and benefits. Understanding RPS costs and benefits is essential for policymakers evaluating existing RPS policies, assessing the need for modifications, and considering new policies. This study provides an overview of methods used to estimate RPS compliance costs and benefits, based on available data and estimates issued by utilities and regulators. Over the 2010-2012 period, average incremental RPS compliance costs in the United States were equivalent to 0.8% of retail electricity rates, although substantial variation exists around this average, both from year-to-year and across states. The methods used by utilities and regulators to estimate incremental compliance costs vary considerably from state to state and a number of states are currently engaged in processes to refine and standardize their approaches to RPS cost calculation. The report finds that state assessments of RPS benefits have most commonly attempted to quantitatively assess avoided emissions and human health benefits, economic development impacts, and wholesale electricity price savings. Compared to the summary of RPS costs, the summary of RPS benefits is more limited, as relatively few states have undertaken detailed benefits estimates, and then only for a few types of potential policy impacts. In some cases, the same impacts may be captured in the assessment of incremental costs. For these reasons, and because methodologies and level of rigor vary widely, direct comparisons between the estimates of benefits and costs are challenging.

  15. Estimation of cellular manufacturing cost components using simulation and activity-based costing

    OpenAIRE

    Paul Savory; Robert Williams

    2010-01-01

    It can be difficult estimating all of the cost components that are attributed to a machined part.  This problem is more pronounced when a factory uses group technology manufacturing cells as opposed to a functional or process layout of a job shop.  This paper describes how activity-based costing (ABC) concepts can be integrated into a discrete-event simulation model of a U-shaped manufacturing cell producing a part family with four members.  The simulation model generates detai...

  16. Estimation of cellular manufacturing cost components using simulation and activity-based costing

    OpenAIRE

    Savory, Paul

    2010-01-01

    It can be difficult estimating all of the cost components that are attributed to a machined part. This problem is more pronounced when a factory uses group technology manufacturing cells as opposed to a functional or process layout of a job shop. This paper describes how activity-based costing (ABC) concepts can be integrated into a discrete-event simulation model of a U-shaped manufacturing cell producing a part family with four members. The simulation model generates detailed Bills of Ac...

  17. Cost estimation of the future harvest as agricultural loan collateral

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vnukova, N. N.

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to attempt developing recommendations which may improve the overall banking technique of future cropping cost estimating. Objectives that have been set to achieve this aim are: to analyze alternative techniques of future cropping cost estimating; to perform calculation according to the selected techniques for 10 agricultural companies from different regions of Ukraine; to compare the techniques by means of hierarchy analysis method.

  18. Make-up wells drilling cost in financial model for a geothermal project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oktaviani Purwaningsih, Fitri; Husnie, Ruly; Afuar, Waldy; Abdurrahman, Gugun

    2017-12-01

    After commissioning of a power plant, geothermal reservoir will encounter pressure decline, which will affect wells productivity. Therefore, further drilling is carried out to enhance steam production. Make-up wells are production wells drilled inside an already confirmed reservoir to maintain steam production in a certain level. Based on Sanyal (2004), geothermal power cost consists of three components, those are capital cost, O&M cost and make-up drilling cost. The make-up drilling cost component is a major part of power cost which will give big influence in a whole economical value of the project. The objective of this paper it to analyse the make-up wells drilling cost component in financial model of a geothermal power project. The research will calculate make-up wells requirements, drilling costs as a function of time and how they influence the financial model and affect the power cost. The best scenario in determining make-up wells strategy in relation with the project financial model would be the result of this research.

  19. Computer software to estimate timber harvesting system production, cost, and revenue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dr. John E. Baumgras; Dr. Chris B. LeDoux

    1992-01-01

    Large variations in timber harvesting cost and revenue can result from the differences between harvesting systems, the variable attributes of harvesting sites and timber stands, or changing product markets. Consequently, system and site specific estimates of production rates and costs are required to improve estimates of harvesting revenue. This paper describes...

  20. Analysis of the production and transaction costs of forest carbon offset projects in the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galik, Christopher S; Cooley, David M; Baker, Justin S

    2012-12-15

    Forest carbon offset project implementation costs, comprised of both production and transaction costs, could present an important barrier to private landowner participation in carbon offset markets. These costs likewise represent a largely undocumented component of forest carbon offset potential. Using a custom spreadsheet model and accounting tool, this study examines the implementation costs of different forest offset project types operating in different forest types under different accounting and sampling methodologies. Sensitivity results are summarized concisely through response surface regression analysis to illustrate the relative effect of project-specific variables on total implementation costs. Results suggest that transaction costs may represent a relatively small percentage of total project implementation costs - generally less than 25% of the total. Results also show that carbon accounting methods, specifically the method used to establish project baseline, may be among the most important factors in driving implementation costs on a per-ton-of-carbon-sequestered basis, dramatically increasing variability in both transaction and production costs. This suggests that accounting could be a large driver in the financial viability of forest offset projects, with transaction costs likely being of largest concern to those projects at the margin. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Incorporating psychological influences in probabilistic cost analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kujawski, Edouard; Alvaro, Mariana; Edwards, William

    2004-01-08

    Today's typical probabilistic cost analysis assumes an ''ideal'' project that is devoid of the human and organizational considerations that heavily influence the success and cost of real-world projects. In the real world ''Money Allocated Is Money Spent'' (MAIMS principle); cost underruns are rarely available to protect against cost overruns while task overruns are passed on to the total project cost. Realistic cost estimates therefore require a modified probabilistic cost analysis that simultaneously models the cost management strategy including budget allocation. Psychological influences such as overconfidence in assessing uncertainties and dependencies among cost elements and risks are other important considerations that are generally not addressed. It should then be no surprise that actual project costs often exceed the initial estimates and are delivered late and/or with a reduced scope. This paper presents a practical probabilistic cost analysis model that incorporates recent findings in human behavior and judgment under uncertainty, dependencies among cost elements, the MAIMS principle, and project management practices. Uncertain cost elements are elicited from experts using the direct fractile assessment method and fitted with three-parameter Weibull distributions. The full correlation matrix is specified in terms of two parameters that characterize correlations among cost elements in the same and in different subsystems. The analysis is readily implemented using standard Monte Carlo simulation tools such as {at}Risk and Crystal Ball{reg_sign}. The analysis of a representative design and engineering project substantiates that today's typical probabilistic cost analysis is likely to severely underestimate project cost for probability of success values of importance to contractors and procuring activities. The proposed approach provides a framework for developing a viable cost management strategy for

  2. A Second Opinion is Worth the Cost - 12479

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Madsen, Drew [Project Time and Cost Inc. (United States)

    2012-07-01

    This paper, 'A Second Opinion is Worth the Cost', shows how a second opinion for a Department of Energy (DOE) Project helped prepare and pass a DOE Order 413.3A 'Program and Project Management for the acquisition of Capital Assets' Office of Engineering and Construction Management (OECM) required External Independent Review (EIR) in support of the approved baseline for Critical Decision (CD) 2. The DOE project personnel were informed that the project's Total Project Cost (TPC) was going to increase from $815 million to $1.1 billion due to unforeseen problems and unexplained reasons. The DOE Project Team determined that a second opinion was needed to review and validate the TPC. Project Time and Cost, Inc. (PT and C) was requested to evaluate the cost estimate, schedule, basis of estimate (BOE), and risk management plan of the Project and to give an independent assessment of the TPC that was presented to DOE. This paper will demonstrate how breaking down a project to the work breakdown structure (WBS) level allows a project to be analyzed for potential cost increases and/or decreases, thus providing a more accurate TPC. The review Team's cost analyses of Projects identified eight primary drivers resulting in cost increases. They included: - Overstatement of the effort required to develop drawings and specifications. - Cost allocation to 'Miscellaneous' without sufficient detail or documentation. - Cost for duplicated efforts. - Vendor estimates or quotations without sufficient detail. - The practice of using the highest price quoted then adding an additional 10% mark-up. - Application of Nuclear Quality Assurance (NQA) highest level quality requirements when not required. - Allocation of operational costs to the Project Costs instead of to the Operating Expenses (OPEX). OPEX costs come from a different funding source. - DOE had not approved the activities. By using a Team approach with professionals from cost, civil

  3. Health system costs by sex, age and proximity to death, and implications for estimation of future expenditure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakely, Tony; Atkinson, June; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Nghiem, Nhung; McLeod, Heather; Wilson, Nick

    2014-05-02

    Health expenditure increases with age, but some of this increase is due to costs proximal to death. We used linked health datasets (HealthTracker) to determine health expenditure by proximity to death. We then determined the impact on future health expenditure projections of accounting for proximity to death in costs. 2007 to 2009 national health event data were linked for hospitalisations, inpatient procedures, outpatient events, pharmaceuticals, laboratory tests, and primary care consultations. Each event was assigned a cost. Health expenditure by sex, age and whether in last 6 or 12 months of life or not were calculated. Future health expenditure trends were then estimated for the Statistics New Zealand median projection population counts, with 2010-12 mortality rates reducing by 2% per annum into the future. A total of $8.1, $8.8 and $9.2 billion dollars (inflation-adjusted to 2011 NZ$) was allocated to individual health events in HealthTracker in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. Citizen costs for people not within 6 months of death ranged from $498 per person-year (10-14 year old females) to $6900 per person-year (90-94 year old males). Per person-year costs in the last 6 months of life were 10-fold higher on average, being maximal at $30,000 or more among infants and the older elderly (80+ years). Similar patterns were apparent for costs within 12 months of death. For people hypothetically exposed to these 2007-09 health system costs over their full life, the cumulative costs for a person dying at age 70 years was $113,000, and doubled to $223,000 for a person dying at age 90. The proportion of cumulative health expenditure in the last year of life declined with increasing age of death: e.g. 24%, 13% and 10% for someone aged 40, 70 and 90 respectively. Projections of future health system expenditure were overestimated by 2.3% to 3.5% in 2041 when not accounting for proximity to death in costs. New Zealand is fortunate to have access to rich data on health

  4. Kinetic parameter estimation from attenuated SPECT projection measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reutter, B.W.; Gullberg, G.T.

    1998-01-01

    Conventional analysis of dynamically acquired nuclear medicine data involves fitting kinetic models to time-activity curves generated from regions of interest defined on a temporal sequence of reconstructed images. However, images reconstructed from the inconsistent projections of a time-varying distribution of radiopharmaceutical acquired by a rotating SPECT system can contain artifacts that lead to biases in the estimated kinetic parameters. To overcome this problem the authors investigated the estimation of kinetic parameters directly from projection data by modeling the data acquisition process. To accomplish this it was necessary to parametrize the spatial and temporal distribution of the radiopharmaceutical within the SPECT field of view. In a simulated transverse slice, kinetic parameters were estimated for simple one compartment models for three myocardial regions of interest, as well as for the liver. Myocardial uptake and washout parameters estimated by conventional analysis of noiseless simulated data had biases ranging between 1--63%. Parameters estimated directly from the noiseless projection data were unbiased as expected, since the model used for fitting was faithful to the simulation. Predicted uncertainties (standard deviations) of the parameters obtained for 500,000 detected events ranged between 2--31% for the myocardial uptake parameters and 2--23% for the myocardial washout parameters

  5. Estimation of Damage Costs Associated with Flood Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, T. A.; Wauthier, C.; Zipp, K.

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates the possibility of creating a mathematical function that enables the estimation of flood-damage costs. We begin by examining the costs associated with past flood events in the United States. The data on these tropical storms and hurricanes are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. With the location, extent of flooding, and damage reparation costs identified, we analyze variables such as: number of inches rained, land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. We seek to identify the leading drivers of high flood-damage costs and understand which variables play a large role in the costliness of these weather events. Upon completion of our mathematical analysis, we turn out attention to the 2017 natural disaster of Texas. We divide the region, as we did above, by land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. Then, we overlay the number of inches rained in those regions onto the divided landscape and apply our function. We hope to use these findings to estimate the potential flood-damage costs of Hurricane Harvey. This information is then transformed into a hazard map that could provide citizens and businesses of flood-stricken zones additional resources for their insurance selection process.

  6. An analysis of decommissioning costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teunckens, L.; Loeschhorn, U.; Yanagihara, S.; Wren, G.; Menon, S.

    1992-01-01

    Within the OECD/NEA Cooperative Programme on Decommissioning a Task Group was set up early in 1989 to identify the reasons for the large variations in decommissioning cost estimates. The Task Group gathered cost data from 12 of the 14 projects in the Programme to form the basis of their analysis. They included reactors being decommissioned to various stages as well as fuel cycle facilities. The projects were divided into groups of projects with similar characteristics ('models') to facilitate the analysis of the cost distribution in each group of projects and the cost data was progressively refined by a dialogue between the Task Group and the project managers. A comparative analysis was then performed and project specific discrepancies were identified. The Task Group's report is summarized on the results of the comparative analysis as well as the lessons learnt by the Task Group in the acquisition and analysis of cost data from international decommissioning projects. (author) 5 tabs

  7. Projecting the potential impact of the Cap-Score™ on clinical pregnancy, live births, and medical costs in couples with unexplained infertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babigumira, Joseph B; Sharara, Fady I; Garrison, Louis P

    2018-01-01

    The Cap-Score™ was developed to assess the capacitation status of men, thereby enabling personalized management of unexplained infertility by choosing timed intrauterine insemination (IUI), versus immediate in vitro fertilization (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) in individuals with a low Cap-Score™. The objective of this study was to estimate the differences in outcomes and costs comparing the use of the Cap-Score™ with timed IUI (CS-TI) and the standard of care (SOC), which was assumed to be three IUI cycles followed by three IVF-ICSI cycles. We developed and parameterized a decision-analytic model of management of unexplained infertility for women based on data from the published literature. We calculated the clinical pregnancy rates, live birth rates, and medical costs comparing CS-TI and SOC. We used Monte Carlo simulation to quantify uncertainty in projected estimates and performed univariate sensitivity analysis. Compared to SOC, CS-TI was projected to increase the pregnancy rate by 1-26%, marginally reduce live birth rates by 1-3% in couples with women below 40 years, increase live birth rates by 3-7% in couples with women over 40 years, reduce mean medical costs by $4000-$19,200, reduce IUI costs by $600-$1370, and reduce IVF costs by $3400-$17,800, depending on the woman's age. The Cap-Score™ is a potentially valuable clinical tool for management of unexplained infertility because it is projected to improve clinical pregnancy rates, save money, and, depending on the price of the test, increase access to treatment for infertility.

  8. Cost estimation for solid waste management in industrialising regions – Precedents, problems and prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parthan, Shantha R.; Milke, Mark W.; Wilson, David C.; Cocks, John H.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We review cost estimation approaches for solid waste management. ► Unit cost method and benchmarking techniques used in industrialising regions (IR). ► Variety in scope, quality and stakeholders makes cost estimation challenging in IR. ► Integrate waste flow and cost models using cost functions to improve cost planning. - Abstract: The importance of cost planning for solid waste management (SWM) in industrialising regions (IR) is not well recognised. The approaches used to estimate costs of SWM can broadly be classified into three categories – the unit cost method, benchmarking techniques and developing cost models using sub-approaches such as cost and production function analysis. These methods have been developed into computer programmes with varying functionality and utility. IR mostly use the unit cost and benchmarking approach to estimate their SWM costs. The models for cost estimation, on the other hand, are used at times in industrialised countries, but not in IR. Taken together, these approaches could be viewed as precedents that can be modified appropriately to suit waste management systems in IR. The main challenges (or problems) one might face while attempting to do so are a lack of cost data, and a lack of quality for what data do exist. There are practical benefits to planners in IR where solid waste problems are critical and budgets are limited.

  9. Cost estimate modeling of transportation management plans for highway projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Highway rehabilitation and reconstruction projects frequently cause road congestion and increase safety concerns while limiting access for road users. State Transportation Agencies (STAs) are challenged to find safer and more efficient ways to renew ...

  10. Cost estimates for flat plate and concentrator collector arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimada, K.

    1982-01-01

    The current module and installation costs for the U.S. National Photovoltaic Program's grid-connected systems are significantly higher than required for economic viability of this alternative. Attention is accordingly given to the prospects for installed module cost reductions in flat plate, linear focus Fresnel concentrator, and point focus Fresnel concentrator candidate systems. Cost projections indicate that all three systems would meet near-term and midterm goals, provided that module costs of $2.80/W(p) and $0.70/W(p), respectively, are met. The point focus Fresnel system emerges as the most viable for the near term.

  11. Performance, size, mass, and cost estimates for projected 1kW EOL Si, InP, and GaAs arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slifer, Luther W., Jr.

    1991-01-01

    One method of evaluating the potential of emerging solar cell and array technologies is to compare their projected capabilities in space flight applications to those of established Si solar cells and arrays. Such an application-oriented comparison provides an integrated view of the elemental comparisons of efficiency, radiation resistance, temperature sensitivity, size, mass, and cost in combination. In addition, the assumptions necessary to make the comparisons provide insights helpful toward determining necessary areas of development or evaluation. Finally, as developments and evaluations progress, the results can be used in more precisely defining the overall potential of the new technologies in comparison to existing technologies. The projected capabilities of Si, InP, and GaAs cells and arrays are compared.

  12. Applying Insights from Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) to Improve DoD Cost Estimation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Angelis, Diana I; Dillard, John; Franck, Raymond; Melese, Francois

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to explore the possibility of improving DoD cost estimation methods by including explanatory variables that capture the coordination and motivation problems associated with the program...

  13. Nuclear generating station and heavy water plant cost estimates for strategy studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Archinoff, G.H.

    1979-07-01

    Nuclear generating station capital, operating and maintenance costs are basic input data for strategy analyses of alternate nuclear fuel cycles. This report presents estimates of these costs for natural uranium CANDU stations, CANDU stations operating on advanced fuel cycles, and liquid metal fast breeder reactors. Cost estimates for heavy water plants are also presented. The results show that station capital costs for advanced fuel cycles are not expected to be significantly greater than those for natural uranium stations. LMFBR capital costs are expected to be 25-30 percent greater than for CANDU's. (auth)

  14. Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Renewables Portfolio Standards:A Comparative Analysis of State-Level Policy Impact Projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Cliff; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2007-01-16

    State renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have emerged as one of the most important policy drivers of renewable energy capacity expansion in the U.S. Collectively, these policies now apply to roughly 40% of U.S. electricity load, and may have substantial impacts on electricity markets, ratepayers, and local economies. As RPS policies have been proposed or adopted in an increasing number of states, a growing number of studies have attempted to quantify the potential impacts of these policies, focusing primarily on projecting cost impacts, but sometimes also estimating macroeconomic and environmental effects. This report synthesizes and analyzes the results and methodologies of 28 distinct state or utility-level RPS cost impact analyses completed since 1998. Together, these studies model proposed or adopted RPS policies in 18 different states. We highlight the key findings of these studies on the costs and benefits of RPS policies, examine the sensitivity of projected costs to model assumptions, assess the attributes of different modeling approaches, and suggest possible areas of improvement for future RPS analysis.

  15. Fast Reactor Fuel Cycle Cost Estimates for Advanced Fuel Cycle Studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Presentation Outline: • Why Do I Need a Cost Basis?; • History of the Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis; • Description of the Cost Basis; • Current Work; • Fast Reactor Fuel Cycle Applications; • Sample Fuel Cycle Cost Estimate Analysis; • Future Work

  16. Control Strategy Tool (CoST)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The EPA Control Strategy Tool (CoST) is a software tool for projecting potential future control scenarios, their effects on emissions and estimated costs. This tool...

  17. A cost function for HIV prevention services: is there a 'u' – shape?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanson Kara

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global resource needs estimation is a critical part of addressing the HIV/AIDS epidemic. To generate these estimates knowledge of costs and cost structures is required. The evidence base for costs of HIV prevention programmes is limited. Even less is known about the existence of economies scale and whether, as economic theory suggests, average costs form a 'u'-shaped curve as scale increases. Using an econometric analysis, this paper addresses this question by estimating marginal costs and economies of scale for HIV prevention programmes for vulnerable groups in Southern India with different levels of coverage. Methods Two hybrid translog-cost functions were estimated. First, expenditure data from 78 state-funded HIV prevention projects in Andhra Pradesh were used to explore the impact of scale, institutional history and price on costs; second, economic cost data from 16 commercial sex worker projects across Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh were analysed to additionally assess the impact of the value of inputs not reported in expenditure data and location. Coefficient estimates were used to calculate marginal costs and economies of scale. Results The econometric model yielded a good fit (R2 = 0.46, p 2 = 0.79, p Conclusion Econometric analysis of these standardized datasets provides insights into how costs change with coverage, the impact of project location and nature of the project target group. The results demonstrate the importance of understanding the nature of the cost function when designing, budgeting and estimating resource requirements for scaling up coverage of HIV prevention projects.

  18. Cost-Effectiveness of Breast Cancer Screening in Turkey, a Developing Country: Results from Bahçeşehir Mammography Screening Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özmen, Vahit; Gürdal, Sibel Ö; Cabioğlu, Neslihan; Özcinar, Beyza; Özaydın, A Nilüfer; Kayhan, Arda; Arıbal, Erkin; Sahin, Cennet; Saip, Pınar; Alagöz, Oğuzhan

    2017-07-01

    We used the results from the first three screening rounds of Bahcesehir Mammography Screening Project (BMSP), a 10-year (2009-2019) and the first organized population-based screening program implemented in a county of Istanbul, Turkey, to assess the potential cost-effectiveness of a population-based mammography screening program in Turkey. Two screening strategies were compared: BMSP (includes three biennial screens for women between 40-69) and Turkish National Breast Cancer Registry Program (TNBCRP) which includes no organized population-based screening. Costs were estimated using direct data from the BMSP project and the reimbursement rates of Turkish Social Security Administration. The life-years saved by BMSP were estimated using the stage distribution observed with BMSP and TNBCRP. A total of 67 women (out of 7234 screened women) were diagnosed with breast cancer in BMSP. The stage distribution for AJCC stages O, I, II, III, IV was 19.4%, 50.8%, 20.9%, 7.5%, 1.5% and 4.9%, 26.6%, 44.9%, 20.8%, 2.8% with BMSP and TNBCRP, respectively. The BMSP program is expected to save 279.46 life years over TNBCRP with an additional cost of $677.171, which implies an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $2.423 per saved life year. Since the ICER is smaller than the Gross Demostic Product (GDP) per capita in Turkey ($10.515 in 2014), BMSP program is highly cost-effective and remains cost-effective in the sensitivity analysis. Mammography screening may change the stage distribution of breast cancer in Turkey. Furthermore, an organized population-based screening program may be cost-effective in Turkey and in other developing countries. More research is needed to better estimate life-years saved with screening and further validate the findings of our study.

  19. The application of cost behaviour and estimation in organisational ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Based on these findings, the paper recommends among others the need for the regular training of the management accountant in the modern methods of cost estimation, the need for accurate keeping of records of transactions and for long term forecasting of cost, management should rely on quantitative factors and ...

  20. Kinetic parameter estimation from SPECT cone-beam projection measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huesman, Ronald H.; Reutter, Bryan W.; Zeng, G. Larry; Gullberg, Grant T.

    1998-01-01

    Kinetic parameters are commonly estimated from dynamically acquired nuclear medicine data by first reconstructing a dynamic sequence of images and subsequently fitting the parameters to time-activity curves generated from regions of interest overlaid upon the image sequence. Biased estimates can result from images reconstructed using inconsistent projections of a time-varying distribution of radiopharmaceutical acquired by a rotating SPECT system. If the SPECT data are acquired using cone-beam collimators wherein the gantry rotates so that the focal point of the collimators always remains in a plane, additional biases can arise from images reconstructed using insufficient, as well as truncated, projection samples. To overcome these problems we have investigated the estimation of kinetic parameters directly from SPECT cone-beam projection data by modelling the data acquisition process. To accomplish this it was necessary to parametrize the spatial and temporal distribution of the radiopharmaceutical within the SPECT field of view. In a simulated chest image volume, kinetic parameters were estimated for simple one-compartment models for four myocardial regions of interest. Myocardial uptake and washout parameters estimated by conventional analysis of noiseless simulated cone-beam data had biases ranging between 3-26% and 0-28%, respectively. Parameters estimated directly from the noiseless projection data were unbiased as expected, since the model used for fitting was faithful to the simulation. Statistical uncertainties of parameter estimates for 10 000 000 events ranged between 0.2-9% for the uptake parameters and between 0.3-6% for the washout parameters. (author)

  1. Estimating External Costs of Transportation in Regional Areas: Using Available Statistical Data the Case of the Region of Campania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariano Gallo

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper simplified methods for estimating the external costs due to transportation in regional areas are proposed. The methods are based on data available by national and regional statistical sources and do not need specific surveys; they allow obtaining approximate estimates useful for a preliminary evaluation of transportation plans, policies and projects. In more detail, a negative externality is defined as a cost that is produced by subject A and is borne by subject B; moreover, subject A does not consider the effects of his/her behavior on subject B and does not compensate subject B for the costs that this last one is forced to bear. In this paper after a literature review on methodologies proposed for estimating external costs, in national and international ambits, the main external costs produced by transportation systems in the Region of Campania are estimated. The main external costs considered are: greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, noise, accidents and congestion. In the paper the secondary external costs are neglected; the main ones are: water and soil pollution; landscape and nature damages; upstream and downstream effects; visual intrusion; separation effects; soil occupancy. In this paper the external costs estimated are the ones produced not only by road traffic, that anyway is the main “culprit”, but also by rail and air transportation systems. The evaluation of external costs has required the collection of several data on the regional mobility and the estimation of veh-kms per year produced in Campania by cars and freight vehicles. The estimation of veh-kms per year is based on circulating vehicles, subdivided by the COPERT classification, and on average yearly distances covered by each vehicle class. Other regional statistical data are collected about regional rail transport and air services at the main airports of the region. Moreover, since the evaluation of some external costs is based on damages on human

  2. Estimating Power Outage Cost based on a Survey for Industrial Customers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Yoshikuni; Matsuhashi, Ryuji

    A survey was conducted on power outage cost for industrial customers. 5139 factories, which are designated energy management factories in Japan, answered their power consumption and the loss of production value due to the power outage in an hour in summer weekday. The median of unit cost of power outage of whole sectors is estimated as 672 yen/kWh. The sector of services for amusement and hobbies and the sector of manufacture of information and communication electronics equipment relatively have higher unit cost of power outage. Direct damage cost from power outage in whole sectors reaches 77 billion yen. Then utilizing input-output analysis, we estimated indirect damage cost that is caused by the repercussion of production halt. Indirect damage cost in whole sectors reaches 91 billion yen. The sector of wholesale and retail trade has the largest direct damage cost. The sector of manufacture of transportation equipment has the largest indirect damage cost.

  3. 13 CFR 120.882 - Eligible Project costs for 504 loans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... financing including points, fees and interest. (e) If the project involves expansion of a small business... expansion of a small business concern” includes any project that involves the acquisition, construction or... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Eligible Project costs for 504...

  4. Impact of Research and Development, Analysis, and Standardization on PV Project Financing Costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feldman, David J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jones-Albertus, Rebecca [U.S. Department of Energy

    2018-04-02

    The technical report discusses how R and D efforts focused on removing perceived risk from cash flows to investors have the potential to lower the cost of capital and increase the amount of leverage in a solar project. It also discusses how creating business efficiencies that allow financing transactions to occur more quickly with less effort can reduce the upfront costs associated with arranging financing for a solar project or group of projects. The paper then assesses the impact that these R and D activities might have on the volatility of PV asset cash flows and asset value, as well as the upfront costs of arranging a financial transaction. Finally, we insert these assumptions into financial models to analyze their impacts on the cost of capital for equity and debt investors, project leverage, and upfront financial transaction costs.

  5. Cost Estimating in DoD: Current Status, Trends, and What the Future Holds

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nussbaum, Daniel A

    2005-01-01

    (1) Current Status: Baseline analysis of current cost estimating community, including which organizations are responsible for developing and reviewing cost estimates, how many personnel there are, what...

  6. Identifying inaccuracy of MS Project using system analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fachrurrazi; Husin, Saiful; Malahayati, Nurul; Irzaidi

    2018-05-01

    The problem encountered in project owner’s financial accounting report is the difference in total project costs of MS Project to the Indonesian Standard (Standard Indonesia Standard / Cost Estimating Standard Book of Indonesia). It is one of the MS Project problems concerning to its cost accuracy, so cost data cannot be used in an integrated way for all project components. This study focuses on finding the causes of inaccuracy of the MS Projects. The aim of this study, which is operationally, are: (i) identifying cost analysis procedures for both current methods (SNI) and MS Project; (ii) identifying cost bias in each element of the cost analysis procedure; and (iii) analysing the cost differences (cost bias) in each element to identify what the cause of inaccuracies in MS Project toward SNI is. The method in this study is comparing for both the system analysis of MS Project and SNI. The results are: (i) MS Project system in Work of Resources element has limitation for two decimal digits only, have led to its inaccuracy. Where the Work of Resources (referred to as effort) in MS Project represents multiplication between the Quantities of Activities and Requirements of resources in SNI; (ii) MS Project and SNI have differences in the costing methods (the cost estimation methods), in which the SNI uses the Quantity-Based Costing (QBC), meanwhile MS Project uses the Time-Based Costing (TBC). Based on this research, we recommend to the contractors who use SNI should make an adjustment for Work of Resources in MS Project (with correction index) so that it can be used in an integrated way to the project owner’s financial accounting system. Further research will conduct for improvement the MS Project as an integrated tool toward all part of the project participant.

  7. NREL-Led Efforts Help Bring Financing to Solar Projects - Continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    source of costs and estimating specific project costs, to helping large institutional investors direct , operations, and maintenance-as well as good-quality data on asset performance-we can allow the cash flows projects, analyzing proposed projects for their capital costs, operating costs, power production, and

  8. Conceptual Design Plan SM-43 Replacement Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    University of California, Los Alamos National Laboratory, SCC Project Office

    2000-11-01

    The Los Alamos National Laboratory Conceptual Design Plan for the SM-43 Replacement Project outlines plans for replacing the SM-43 Administration Building. Topics include the reasons that replacement is considered a necessity; the roles of the various project sponsors; and descriptions of the proposed site and facilities. Also covered in this proposal is preliminary information on the project schedule, cost estimates, acquisition strategy, risk assessment, NEPA strategy, safety strategy, and safeguards and security. Spreadsheets provide further detail on space requirements, project schedules, and cost estimates.

  9. Assessment of external costs for transport project evaluation: Guidelines in some European countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petruccelli, Umberto, E-mail: umberto.petruccelli@unibas.it

    2015-09-15

    Many studies about the external costs generated by the transport system have been developed in the last twenty years. To standardize methodologies and assessment procedures to be used in the evaluation of the projects, some European countries recently have adopted specific guidelines that differ from each other in some aspects even sensibly. This paper presents a critical analysis of the British, Italian and German guidelines and is aimed at cataloguing the external cost types regarded and the assessment methods indicated as well as to highlight the differences of the results, in terms of applicability and reliability. The goal is to contribute to a European standardization process that would lead to the drafting of guidelines suited for all EU countries. - Highlights: • The analyzed guidelines agree on the methods to evaluate costs from air pollution, greenhouse gases and accidents. • They recommend respectively: dose-resp. approach; costs to reduce/permit emissions; whole direct, indirect and social costs. • For noise, DE guide indicates defensive expenditure or SP methods; IT guide, SP method; UK guide, the hedonic prices one. • For on territory impact, DE guide regards only the barrier effect; the IT one, also the soil consumption and system effects. • British guide proposes a qualitative methodology to estimate the impact on various landscapes and environments.

  10. ESTIMATING THE COST OF AGRICULTURAL MORBIDITY IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Nathan M; Scott, Erika E; Krupa, Nicole; Jenkins, Paul L

    2018-01-29

    This article provides an estimate for the economic costs of agricultural injuries sustained in the states of Maine and New Hampshire between the years 2008 and 2010. The authors used a novel dataset of 562 agriculturally related occupational injuries, and cost estimates were generated using the CDC's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS). Individual cases from the dataset that did not match the query options for WISQARS were excluded. Of the 562 agricultural injuries identified in the dataset, 361 met the WISQARS criteria. The remaining 201 cases were judged to be incompatible with the WISQARS query criteria. Significant differences (p 0.0001) were found between the median costs of eight types of injury. Amputations (median = $70,077) and fractures (median = $13,365) were found to be the most expensive types of injury. The total cost of the 361 injuries for which estimates were available was $6,342,270. Injuries that reportedly involved machinery were found to be more expensive than injuries caused by animals. This article highlights the difference in the total cost of injury between types of injuries and demonstrates that agricultural injuries were a significant economic burden for Maine and New Hampshire for the years 2008-2010. These data can be used to direct future preventive efforts. Finally, this article suggests that WISQARS is a powerful tool for estimating injury costs without requiring access to treatment or billing records. Copyright© by the American Society of Agricultural Engineers.

  11. Project-Based Emissions Trading. The Impact of Institutional Arrangements on Cost-Effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woerdman, E.; Van der Gaast, W.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we demonstrate that the institutional arrangement (or: design) of Joint Implementation (JI) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has a decisive impact on their cost-effectiveness. We illustrate our arguments by statistically analyzing the costs from 94 Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ) pilot phase projects as well as by adjusting these data on the basis of simple mathematical formulas. These calculations explicitly take into account the institutional differences between JI (sinks, no banking) and the CDM (banking, no sinks) under the Kyoto Protocol and also show the possible effects on credit costs of alternative design options. However, our numerical illustrations should be viewed with caution, because AIJ is only to a limited extent representative of potential future JI and CDM projects and because credit costs are not credit prices. Some of the main figures found in this study are: an average cost figure per unit of emission reduction for AIJ projects of 46 dollar per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent ($/Mg CO 2 -eq), an average potential JI credit cost figure which is lowered to 37 $/Mg CO 2 -eq by introducing banking and an average of 6 $/Mg CO 2 -eq per credit for potential low-cost CDM projects which includes sinks. However, at CoP6 in November 2000 in The Hague (The Netherlands), the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) did not (yet) reach consensus on the institutional details of the project-based mechanisms, such as the possible arrangement of early JI action or the inclusion of sinks under the CDM. 55 refs

  12. Prediction of Decommissioning Cost for Kijang Research Reactor Using Power Data of DACCORD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Yun Jeong; Jin, Hyung Gon; Park, Hee Seong; Park, Seung Kook [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    There are 3 types of cost estimate that can be used, and each have a different level of accuracy: (i) Order of magnitude estimate: One without detailed engineering data, where an estimate is prepared using scale-up or -down factors and approximate ratios. It is likely that the overall scope of the project has not been well defined. The level of accuracy expected is -30% to +50%. The cost plans to predict referring to abroad examples as decommissioning cost estimation has still not developed and been commercial method for Kijang research reactor. In Kijang research reactor case, overall scope of business isn't yet decided. Then it is supposed to estimate cost with type (i). The IAEA project, entitled 'DACCORD' (Data Analysis and Collection for Costing of Research Reactor Decommissioning) performs decommissioning costing after collecting and analyzing the information related to research reactors around the world for several years. Also decommissioning costing method development tends to increase in the each country. This paper aims to estimate preliminary decommissioning cost based on total decommissioning cost per thermal power rate of research reactor presented in DACCORD project' data which is collected by member state. In this paper, preliminary decommissioning cost is estimated based on total decommissioning cost per thermal power rate of research reactor presented in DACCORD data which is collected by member state. Although there exists a general tendency for costs to increase with increasing thermal power, the limited data available show that decommissioning costs at any given power level can vary widely, with increased variability at higher power levels. Variations in decommissioning cost for the research reactors of the same or similar thermal power are caused by differences in reactor types and design, decommissioning project scopes, country- specific unit workforce costs, and other reactor or project factors. An important factor for the

  13. A parametric cost model for estimating operating and support costs of US Navy (non-nuclear) surface ships

    OpenAIRE

    Brandt, James M.

    1999-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited With few effective decision-making tools to assess the affordability of major weapon systems, management of total ownership costs is continually misunderstood. Cost analysis provides a quick and reliable assessment of affordability. Because there is no standardized method for calculating reliable estimates of operating and support (O&S) costs (the principal component of total ownership cost), this thesis formulates a parametric cost mo...

  14. Treatment Cost Analysis Tool (TCAT) for estimating costs of outpatient treatment services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Patrick M; Broome, Kirk M; Beaston-Blaakman, Aaron; Knight, Danica K; Horgan, Constance M; Shepard, Donald S

    2009-02-01

    A Microsoft Excel-based workbook designed for research analysts to use in a national study was retooled for treatment program directors and financial officers to allocate, analyze, and estimate outpatient treatment costs in the U.S. This instrument can also be used as a planning and management tool to optimize resources and forecast the impact of future changes in staffing, client flow, program design, and other resources. The Treatment Cost Analysis Tool (TCAT) automatically provides feedback and generates summaries and charts using comparative data from a national sample of non-methadone outpatient providers. TCAT is being used by program staff to capture and allocate both economic and accounting costs, and outpatient service costs are reported for a sample of 70 programs. Costs for an episode of treatment in regular, intensive, and mixed types of outpatient treatment were $882, $1310, and $1381 respectively (based on 20% trimmed means and 2006 dollars). An hour of counseling cost $64 in regular, $85 intensive, and $86 mixed. Group counseling hourly costs per client were $8, $11, and $10 respectively for regular, intensive, and mixed. Future directions include use of a web-based interview version, much like some of the commercially available tax preparation software tools, and extensions for use in other modalities of treatment.

  15. Economics, funding and the influence of politics on the UMTRA Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamp, S.

    1993-01-01

    This presentation discusses the factors contributing to the cost of the Uranium Mill Tailings Remediation Action Project and the political process involved in the funding. Topics covered include the following: Funding estimate and growth of estimate; Management actions during process; how the political process worked; cost of completed sites; economic benefit analysis of the project to Colorado; cost reduction program for the UMTRA project

  16. Modeling of Control Costs, Emissions, and Control Retrofits for Cost Effectiveness and Feasibility Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Learn about EPA’s use of the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) to develop estimates of SO2 and NOx emission control costs, projections of futureemissions, and projections of capacity of future control retrofits, assuming controls on EGUs.

  17. State estimation and control for low-cost unmanned aerial vehicles

    CERN Document Server

    Hajiyev, Chingiz; Yenal Vural, Sıtkı

    2015-01-01

    This book discusses state estimation and control procedures for a low-cost unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The authors consider the use of robust adaptive Kalman filter algorithms and demonstrate their advantages over the optimal Kalman filter in the context of the difficult and varied environments in which UAVs may be employed. Fault detection and isolation (FDI) and data fusion for UAV air-data systems are also investigated, and control algorithms, including the classical, optimal, and fuzzy controllers, are given for the UAV. The performance of different control methods is investigated and the results compared. State Estimation and Control of Low-Cost Unmanned Aerial Vehicles covers all the important issues for designing a guidance, navigation and control (GNC) system of a low-cost UAV. It proposes significant new approaches that can be exploited by GNC system designers in the future and also reviews the current literature. The state estimation, control and FDI methods are illustrated by examples and MATLAB...

  18. Estimating the costs of induced abortion in Uganda: A model-based analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background The demand for induced abortions in Uganda is high despite legal and moral proscriptions. Abortion seekers usually go to illegal, hidden clinics where procedures are performed in unhygienic environments by under-trained practitioners. These abortions, which are usually unsafe, lead to a high rate of severe complications and use of substantial, scarce healthcare resources. This study was performed to estimate the costs associated with induced abortions in Uganda. Methods A decision tree was developed to represent the consequences of induced abortion and estimate the costs of an average case. Data were obtained from a primary chart abstraction study, an on-going prospective study, and the published literature. Societal costs, direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs, indirect (productivity) costs, costs to patients, and costs to the government were estimated. Monte Carlo simulation was used to account for uncertainty. Results The average societal cost per induced abortion (95% credibility range) was $177 ($140-$223). This is equivalent to $64 million in annual national costs. Of this, the average direct medical cost was $65 ($49-86) and the average direct non-medical cost was $19 ($16-$23). The average indirect cost was $92 ($57-$139). Patients incurred $62 ($46-$83) on average while government incurred $14 ($10-$20) on average. Conclusion Induced abortions are associated with substantial costs in Uganda and patients incur the bulk of the healthcare costs. This reinforces the case made by other researchers--that efforts by the government to reduce unsafe abortions by increasing contraceptive coverage or providing safe, legal abortions are critical. PMID:22145859

  19. Estimating healthcare costs of acute gastroenteritis and human campylobacteriosis in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmutz, C; Mäusezahl, D; Bless, P J; Hatz, C; Schwenkglenks, M; Urbinello, D

    2017-03-01

    Rising numbers of campylobacteriosis case notifications in Switzerland resulted in an increased attention to acute gastroenteritis (AG) in general. Patients with a laboratory-confirmed Campylobacter infection perceive their disease as severe and around 15% of these patients are hospitalized. This study aimed at estimating healthcare costs due to AG and campylobacteriosis in Switzerland. We used official health statistics, data from different studies and expert opinion for estimating individual treatment costs for patients with different illness severity and for extrapolating overall costs due to AG and campylobacteriosis. We estimated that total Swiss healthcare costs resulting from these diseases amount to €29-45 million annually. Data suggest that patients with AG consulting a physician without a stool diagnostic test account for €9·0-24·2 million, patients with a negative stool test result for Campylobacter spp. for €12·3 million, patients testing positive for Campylobacter spp. for €1·8 million and hospitalized campylobacteriosis patients for €6·5 million/year. Healthcare costs of campylobacteriosis are high and most likely increasing in Switzerland considering that campylobacteriosis case notifications steadily increased in the past decade. Costs and potential cost savings for the healthcare system should be considered when designing sectorial and cross-sectorial interventions to reduce the burden of human campylobacteriosis in Switzerland.

  20. Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory building cost index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemon, G.D.; Morris, D.W.; McConnell, P.H.

    1977-11-01

    The Controller's budget request for FY-1979 established guidance for escalation rates at 6 to 8 percent for construction projects beyond FY-1976. The Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory (LASL) has chosen to use an annual construction escalation rate of 10 percent. Results of this study should contribute toward the establishment of realistic construction cost estimate totals and estimates of annual construction funding requirements. Many methods were used to arrive at the LASL escalation rate recommendation. First, a computer program was developed which greatly expanded the number of materials previously analyzed. The program calculated the 1970 to 76 weighted averages for labor, materials, and equipment for the base line project. It also plotted graphs for each category and composite indexes for labor and material/equipment. Second, estimated increases for 1977 were obtained from several sources. The Zia Company provided labor cost estimates. Projected increases for material and equipment were obtained through conversations with vendors and analysis of trade publications. Third, economic forecast reports and the Wall Street Journal were used for source material, narrative, and forecast support. Finally, we compared LASL Building Cost Index with the effects of escalation associated with three recently developed projects at LASL