WorldWideScience

Sample records for program areas climate

  1. About the Climate Ready Estuaries Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Climate Ready Estuaries program is a partnership between EPA and the National Estuary Programs to address climate change in coastal areas. It has helped coastal communities prepare for climate change since 2008.

  2. Climate change threatens European conservation areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Miguel B; Alagador, Diogo; Cabeza, Mar; Nogués-Bravo, David; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2011-01-01

    Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (Pareas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas. The risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe's biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change. New policies are required to avert this risk. PMID:21447141

  3. Climate Change Science Program Collection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Collection consists of publications and other resources produced between 2007 and 2009 by the CCSP with the intention of...

  4. Climate change threatens European conservation areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Alagador, Diogo; Cabeza, Mar

    2011-01-01

    Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura...... 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring...... in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P...

  5. Helsinki Metropolitan Area Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    The Helsinki Metropolitan Area Climate Change Adaptation Strategy has been prepared in close cooperation with the four cities of the metropolitan area (Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa and Kauniainen), the Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority HSY and other municipal, regional and state level organisations. In the strategy, strategic starting points and policies with which the metropolitan area prepares for the consequences of climate change, are compiled. The Helsinki Metropolitan Area adaptation strategy concentrates on the adaptation of the built and urban environment to the changing climate. The vision of the strategy is climate proof city - the future is built now. The strategy aims to (1) assess the impacts of climate change in the area, (2) prepare for the impacts of climate change and to extreme weather events and (3) to reduce the vulnerabilities of the area to climate variability and change. The target is to secure the well-being of the citizens and the functioning of the cities also in the changing climate conditions. The preparation of the adaptation strategy started in 2009 by producing the background studies. They include the regional climate and sea level scenarios, modelling of river floods in climate change conditions and a survey of climate change impacts in the region. Also, existing programmes, legislation, research and studies concerning adaptation were collected. The background studies are published in a report titled 'The Helsinki metropolitan area climate is changing - Adaptation strategy background studies' (in Finnish) (HSY 2010). HSY coordinated the strategy preparation. The work was carried out is close cooperation with the experts of the metropolitan area cities, regional emergency services, Ministry of the Environment, Helsinki Region Transport Authority and other regional organisations. The strategy work has had a steering group that consists of representatives of the cities and other central cooperation partners. The

  6. Preparing Informal Bay Area Educators for Climate Education Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, M.

    2016-12-01

    The Bay Area Climate Literacy Impact Collaborative (Bay-CLIC) joins informal science educators from over 30 environmental education organizations with the common goal of increasing climate literacy and action. Over this past year, the collaborative has been gathering existing tools and resources that will allow informal educators in the Bay Area to communicate on climate change with confidence. Bay-CLIC's work plans to bring climate science to life by equipping educators with climate data that resonates best with local audiences, which is data that is place-based and personal. Bay-CLIC is also researching effective sustainability campaigns focused on behavior change that can be crafted to fit our unique regional context and rolled out across multiple Bay-CLIC member organizations. This session will focus on sharing our findings from our six month information gathering phase. The overarching discussion will focus on the needs that Bay Area educators identified as necessary to address in order for them to provide the best quality climate education programming. We will also discuss the data we gathered on what local educators are already using in their work and share out on how this diverse array of informal educators will be implementing our research into their programs.

  7. Climate leadership program: Building Africa's resilience through ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate leadership program: Building Africa's resilience through research, policy and practice. Building Africa's resilience to climate change will require designing and implementing effective climate adaptation strategies. Science-informed policy, planning, and practice will ensure that development is more resilient and less ...

  8. Species richness, area and climate correlates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2006-01-01

    . The assumption is that variation in grid cell size accrued from working in a three-dimensional world is negligible. Here we provide a first test of this idea. We measure the surface area of c. 50 × 50 km and c. 220 × 220 km grid cells across western Europe. We then ask how variation in the area of grid cells...... affects: (1) the selection of climate variables entering a species richness model; and (2) the accuracy of models in predicting species richness in unsampled grid cells. Location Western Europe. Methods Models are developed for European plant, breeding bird, mammal and herptile species richness using...... seven climate variables. Generalized additive models are used to relate species richness, climate and area. Results We found that variation in the grid cell area was large (50 × 50 km: 8-3311 km2; 220 × 220: 193-55,100 km2), but this did not affect the selection of variables in the models. Similarly...

  9. U.S. Climate Change Technology Program: Strategic Plan

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2006-01-01

    .... climate change research and development activities. Under this new structure, climate change science and climate-related technology research programs are integrated to an extent not seen previously...

  10. Climate Change Projections for African Urban Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonis, Ingo; Engelbrecht, Francois; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Mercogliano, Paola; Naidoo, Mogesh

    2013-04-01

    Mainly driven by changes in the orbital characteristics of Earth around the sun, the planet's climate has been continuously changing over periods of tens of thousands of years. However, the warming that has been detected in the Earth's atmosphere over the last century is occurring at a rate that cannot be explained by any known natural cycle. Main-stream science has indeed reached consensus that the 'enhanced green house effect', caused by the interplay of incoming short-wave irradiation, outgoing long-wave radiation and the absorption of energy by enhanced levels of CO2 and water vapour in the troposphere, is the main forcing mechanism responsible for the phenomena of global warming. The enhanced greenhouse effect strengthens the 'natural green house effect' that results from the CO2 and water vapour occurring naturally in the atmosphere. The continuous burning of fossil fuels since the industrial revolution and the simultaneous degradation of large forests, are the main reasons for the increase in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. The availability of climate change projection data varies considerably for different areas on Earth. Whereas the data centres storing climate change projections for Europe and North America now store petabytes of data, regionally downscaled projections for Africa are rarely available. In the context of the research project CLUVA, (Assessing vulnerability of urban systems, populations and goods in relation to natural and man-made disasters in Africa, co-funded by the European Commission under grant agreement no: 265137), the Council for Industrial and Scientific Research (CSIR) in South Africa and the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) in Italy have produced a large set of projections of climate change over Africa, covering the time period 1950 to 2100. Through the collaboration between CMCC and CSIR, a multi-model ensemble of eight high-resolution simulations of climate change over parts of West and East

  11. National Coral Reef Monitoring Program: Benthic Percent Cover Derived from Analysis of Benthic Images Collected for Climate Stations across the Pacific Remote Island Areas since 2014

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data described here result from benthic photo-quadrat surveys conducted along transects at climate stations and permanent sites identified by the Ocean and...

  12. Director of Program Area | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Job Summary The Director of a Program Area is accountable to the Vice President of the Program and Partnership Branch for providing strategic intelligence, intellectual leadership and the overall management of the Program Areas personnel (20-35 staff per Program Area).

  13. Mapping urban climate zones and quantifying climate behaviors - An application on Toulouse urban area (France)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houet, Thomas, E-mail: thomas.houet@univ-tlse2.fr [GEODE UMR 5602 CNRS, Universite de Toulouse, 5 allee Antonio Machado, 31058 Toulouse Cedex (France); Pigeon, Gregoire [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Meteo-France/CNRM-GAME, 42 avenue Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex (France)

    2011-08-15

    Facing the concern of the population to its environment and to climatic change, city planners are now considering the urban climate in their choices of planning. The use of climatic maps, such Urban Climate Zone-UCZ, is adapted for this kind of application. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate that the UCZ classification, integrated in the World Meteorological Organization guidelines, first can be automatically determined for sample areas and second is meaningful according to climatic variables. The analysis presented is applied on Toulouse urban area (France). Results show first that UCZ differentiate according to air and surface temperature. It has been possible to determine the membership of sample areas to an UCZ using landscape descriptors automatically computed with GIS and remote sensed data. It also emphasizes that climate behavior and magnitude of UCZ may vary from winter to summer. Finally we discuss the influence of climate data and scale of observation on UCZ mapping and climate characterization. - Highlights: > We proposed a method to map Urban Climate Zones and quantify their climate behaviors. > UCZ is an expert-based classification and is integrated in the WMO guidelines. > We classified 26 sample areas and quantified climate behaviors in winter/summer. > Results enhance urban heat islands and outskirts are surprisingly hottest in summer. > Influence of scale and climate data on UCZ mapping and climate evaluation is discussed. - This paper presents an automated approach to classify sample areas in a UCZ using landscape descriptors and demonstrate that climate behaviors of UCZ differ.

  14. [Climate and ecologic state of urban areas in Eastern Kazakhstan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaev, S T; Grebeneva, O V; Shadetova, A Zh; Kurmangalieva, D S; Balaeva, E A

    2011-01-01

    Ust-Kamenogorsk territory was demonstrated to have climate peculiarities depending on local relief and unfavorable wind conditions of ventilation, that could promote formation of highly chemically loaded zones. Suggested evaluation methods provide qualitative and quantitative assessment of climate parameters for individual areas of residence. Marking areas according to residence comfort for population, based on analysis of geographic position of the studied territory, in accordance with repetition of meteorologic processes, could specify major factors influencing climate on urban territories of modem Kazakhstan cities.

  15. The African Climate Change Fellowship Program Phase III | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The African Climate Change Fellowship Program Phase III. Climate change and climate variability are significantly impeding development in Africa. The Economic Commission for Africa argues that scientists and policymakers must learn to better manage climate risks and to integrate climate change considerations into ...

  16. Indigenous lands, protected areas, and slowing climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taylor H Ricketts

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent climate talks in Copenhagen reaffirmed the crucial role of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD. Creating and strengthening indigenous lands and other protected areas represents an effective, practical, and immediate REDD strategy that addresses both biodiversity and climate crises at once.

  17. Climate studies in the Long-Term Ecological Program

    OpenAIRE

    Greenland, David

    1993-01-01

    Since the inception of the LTER Program in 1980, climate has been studied at individual LTER sites and an LTER Climate Committee has been responsible for inter-site activities. At individual sites, climate studies support ecological research, emphasize inter-site heterogeneity, and often relate to other national monitoring and research programs. In inter-site work, the Climate Committee has produced protocols for meteorological observations, described and compared climates of the first 11 sit...

  18. Climate change and the water cycle in newly irrigated areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahão, Raphael; García-Garizábal, Iker; Merchán, Daniel; Causapé, Jesús

    2015-02-01

    Climate change is affecting agriculture doubly: evapotranspiration is increasing due to increments in temperature while the availability of water resources is decreasing. Furthermore, irrigated areas are expanding worldwide. In this study, the dynamics of climate change impacts on the water cycle of a newly irrigated watershed are studied through the calculation of soil water balances. The study area was a 752-ha watershed located on the left side of the Ebro river valley, in Northeast Spain. The soil water balance procedures were carried out throughout 1827 consecutive days (5 years) of hydrological and agronomical monitoring in the study area. Daily data from two agroclimatic stations were used as well. Evaluation of the impact of climate change on the water cycle considered the creation of two future climate scenarios for comparison: 2070 decade with climate change and 2070 decade without climate change. The main indicators studied were precipitation, irrigation, reference evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, drainage from the watershed, and irrigation losses. The aridity index was also applied. The results represent a baseline scenario in which adaptation measures may be included and tested to reduce the impacts of climate change in the studied area and other similar areas.

  19. CLIMATIC COMFORT FAVORABLE TOURISM AND RECREATION AREAS IN ARTVIN PROVINCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sertaç Güngör

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Turkey is a big country of a varied topography and so it has many climatic zones. Tourism is one of the most important sector either at national or international level. On the other hand with its natural and cultural values, rich environmental sources and unique location linking the two continents, Turkey is an important country having the ability of supplying media for various types of tourism activity and alternative tourism approaches. In this frame, with their various climatic properties, Province of Artvin located in Blacksea Region is one of the main sources of recreation and tourism areas. Besides the touristic potential of the province, its natural specialties of landscape and climate are being a good source for scientific researches have had to be determined. In this study it was aimed that the most suitable areas for climatic comfort in Artvin Province were determined. Twelve different were chosen to define climatic variations. Average temperature, moister and wind speed values of these different climate stations were transferred into GIS environment by using Arc View 3.3 software. From the data transferred into GIS environment, climate maps created and most suitable areas for climatic comfort were determined.

  20. Anthropocene changes in desert area: Sensitivity to climate model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahowald, N.

    2007-12-01

    Changes in desert area due to humans have important implications from a local, regional to global level. Here we focus on the latter in order to better understand estimated changes in desert dust aerosols and the associated iron deposition into oceans. Using 17 model simulations from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 multi-model dataset and the BIOME4 equilibrium vegetation model we estimate changes in desert dust source areas due to climate change and carbon dioxide fertilization. If we assume no carbon dioxide fertilization, the mean of the model predictions is that desert areas expand from the 1880s to the 2080s, due to increased aridity. If we allow for carbon dioxide fertilization, the desert areas become smaller. Thus better understanding carbon dioxide fertilization is important for predicting desert response to climate. There is substantial spread in the model simulation predictions for regional and global averages.

  1. Northeastern Area Forest Legacy Program Yearbook 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    US Forest Service, Northeastern Area, State and Private Forestry

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of the Forest Legacy Program (FLP) is to protect environmentally important forest areas that are threatened by conversion to nonforest uses. The Forest Legacy Program is a partnership between participating States and the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. These two entities work together to identify important forest lands and...

  2. Program for Area Concentration Achievement Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Anthony J.

    The Program for Area Concentration Achievement Testing (PACAT) produces the cooperative assessment instrument known as the Area Concentration Achievement Test (ACAT). The ACAT uses a model designed specifically to measure curricular strengths and weaknesses and to provide this information at the departmental level. PACAT has developed 57…

  3. Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Carroll

    Full Text Available Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth's surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, "analog-based" velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961-2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by

  4. Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J; Roberts, David R; Hamann, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth's surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, "analog-based" velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961-2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and

  5. You Are (Not) Welcome Here: The Climate for LGBT Students in an Adult Literacy Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grissett, Judy Orton; Kaufmann, Jodi; Greenberg, Daphne; Hilton, Krista

    2016-01-01

    Although prior research has indicated a relationship between educational climate and educational outcomes, there is a lack of research in this area in adult literacy programs. The purpose of this qualitative case study was to assess the actual and perceived educational climate for lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transsexual (LGBT) students at an adult…

  6. Mapping urban climate zones and quantifying climate behaviors--an application on Toulouse urban area (France).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houet, Thomas; Pigeon, Grégoire

    2011-01-01

    Facing the concern of the population to its environment and to climatic change, city planners are now considering the urban climate in their choices of planning. The use of climatic maps, such Urban Climate Zone‑UCZ, is adapted for this kind of application. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate that the UCZ classification, integrated in the World Meteorological Organization guidelines, first can be automatically determined for sample areas and second is meaningful according to climatic variables. The analysis presented is applied on Toulouse urban area (France). Results show first that UCZ differentiate according to air and surface temperature. It has been possible to determine the membership of sample areas to an UCZ using landscape descriptors automatically computed with GIS and remote sensed data. It also emphasizes that climate behavior and magnitude of UCZ may vary from winter to summer. Finally we discuss the influence of climate data and scale of observation on UCZ mapping and climate characterization. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Methodological approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment of Protected Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana N. Lipka

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts in Russia's territory make species and ecosystems conservation in Protected Areas a more difficult challenge. Additional adaptation measures are required. Before they are developed, it is important to assess the vulnerability of a territory: what exactly, and to which extent, is exposed to adverse climate impacts? The accomplished research will help develop an action plan consistent with the current unstable climate and extreme weather events, as well as with projections by the leading research institutions of Roshydromet and the Russian Academy of Science. Today, methodologies have been developed and successfully tested for some natural zones. The conservation science is now facing a new challenge: how to combine collected information with climate projections and identify development perspectives for concrete territories.

  8. The African Climate Change Fellowship Program Phase III | CRDI ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    -design and offer fellowships based on four research themes: climate change and water, climate change and gender, climate change and green growth, and economic analysis of adaptation; and, -incorporate the fellowship program into the offerings of the Institute of Resource Assessment at the University of Dar es Salaam ...

  9. Water in Urban Areas in a Climate Change Perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    Climatic changes will influence the water cycle substantially. This will have an immediate impact on the performance of urban water infrastructure. A case study from Roskilde shows that assuming an increase in design intensities of 40 % over a 100 year horizon will lead to increased cost...... planning of adaptation to the anticipated climatic changes and research to identify optimal strategies. In other areas of the world droughts and/or water resource availability in general will also become increasingly important. As such the water cycle in urban areas will be controlled more extensively...... in the future as part of engineering design. However, climatic changes are only one of a suite of time varying drivers of urban design. Other key drivers include technological and modelling capabilities, city planning, environmental considerations, increasing urbanization, and changes in social behaviour...

  10. Climatic features of Ljig municipal and its surrounding area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milanović Ana

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Territory of Ljig municipal is located in Podrinje-Colubara region and belongs to the temperate continental climate with continental rain regime. This is hilly- mountainous area with 848 m altitude (Rajac Mountain and 723 m relative height, in which are deeply incised (up to 500 m valleys of Ljig River and its tributaries. These geomorphologic features cause airstreams direction in this territory, and because of that some parts of Ljig municipal have temperate continental climate (like valleys and some of them have severe continental climate (like Rajac Mountain. The peak of precipitation is at the end of spring and beginning of summer - in May and June, and the driest months are February and October. The great influences on climatic changes in Ljig municipal and its area have north low parts of Panonian area, which are open for penetration of damp and cold air streams from north, northwest and west. This mountain area on south part of Ljig municipal is some kind of "dam" for cold air streams from south, so they are considerable colder on this territory. On the base of available data in period 1961-1990 from Meteorological Annuals of Republic Hydrometeorological Institute of Serbia climatologic overview is presented.

  11. The Shifting Climate Portfolio of the Greater Yellowstone Area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam J Sepulveda

    Full Text Available Knowledge of climatic variability at small spatial extents (< 50 km is needed to assess vulnerabilities of biological reserves to climate change. We used empirical and modeled weather station data to test if climate change has increased the synchrony of surface air temperatures among 50 sites within the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA of the interior western United States. This important biological reserve is the largest protected area in the Lower 48 states and provides critical habitat for some of the world's most iconic wildlife. We focused our analyses on temporal shifts and shape changes in the annual distributions of seasonal minimum and maximum air temperatures among valley-bottom and higher elevation sites from 1948-2012. We documented consistent patterns of warming since 1948 at all 50 sites, with the most pronounced changes occurring during the Winter and Summer when minimum and maximum temperature distributions increased. These shifts indicate more hot temperatures and less cold temperatures would be expected across the GYA. Though the shifting statistical distributions indicate warming, little change in the shape of the temperature distributions across sites since 1948 suggest the GYA has maintained a diverse portfolio of temperatures within a year. Spatial heterogeneity in temperatures is likely maintained by the GYA's physiographic complexity and its large size, which encompasses multiple climate zones that respond differently to synoptic drivers. Having a diverse portfolio of temperatures may help biological reserves spread the extinction risk posed by climate change.

  12. NOAA Climate Program Office Contributions to National ESPC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, W.; Huang, J.; Mariotti, A.; Archambault, H. M.; Barrie, D.; Lucas, S. E.; Mathis, J. T.; Legler, D. M.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Nierenberg, C.; Jones, H.; Cortinas, J. V., Jr.; Carman, J.

    2016-12-01

    NOAA is one of five federal agencies (DOD, DOE, NASA, NOAA, and NSF) which signed an updated charter in 2016 to partner on the National Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC). Situated within NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) programs contribute significantly to the National ESPC goals and activities. This presentation will provide an overview of CPO contributions to National ESPC. First, we will discuss selected CPO research and transition activities that directly benefit the ESPC coupled model prediction capability, including The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal prediction system The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) project to test real-time subseasonal ensemble prediction systems. Improvements to the NOAA operational Climate Forecast System (CFS), including software infrastructure and data assimilation. Next, we will show how CPO's foundational research activities are advancing future ESPC capabilities. Highlights will include: The Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) to provide the basis for predicting climate on subseasonal to decadal timescales. Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) processes and predictability studies to improve understanding, modeling and prediction of the MJO. An Arctic Research Program to address urgent needs for advancing monitoring and prediction capabilities in this major area of concern. Advances towards building an experimental multi-decadal prediction system through studies on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Finally, CPO has embraced Integrated Information Systems (IIS's) that build on the innovation of programs such as the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) to develop and deliver end to end environmental information for key societal challenges (e.g. extreme heat; coastal flooding). These contributions will help the National ESPC better understand and address societal needs and decision support requirements.

  13. Climate Literacy and Cyberlearning: Emerging Platforms and Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffrey, M. S.; Wise, S. B.; Buhr, S. M.

    2009-12-01

    With the release of the Essential Principles of Climate Science Literacy: A Guide for Individuals and Communities in the Spring of 2009, an important step toward an shared educational and communication framework about climate science was achieved. Designed as a living document, reviewed and endorsed by the thirteen federal agencies in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (now U.S. Global Change Research Program), the Essential Principles of Climate Literacy complement other Earth system literacy efforts. A variety of emerging efforts have begun to build on the framework using a variety of cyberlearning tools, including an online Climate Literacy course developed by Education and Outreach group at CIRES, the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, and the Independent Learning program of the Continuing Education Division at the University of Colorado at Boulder. The online course, piloted during the Summer of 2009 with formal classroom teachers and informal science educators, made use of the online Climate Literacy Handbook, which was developed by CIRES Education and Outreach and the Encyclopedia of Earth, which is supported by the National Council for Science and the Environment and hosted by Boston University. This paper will explore challenges and opportunities in the use of cyberlearning tools to support climate literacy efforts, highlight the development of the online course and handbook, and note related emerging cyberlearning platforms and programs for climate literacy, including related efforts by the Climate Literacy Network, the NASA Global Climate Change Education programs, the National STEM Education Distributed Learning (NSDL) and AAAS Project 2061.

  14. Survey of Whole House Programs in Midwestern Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McGeough, U.; Baker, W.; Peters, J.; Beitel, A.

    2012-11-01

    Existing single family whole home energy efficiency programs in cold weather climates, focused on the Midwest, were analyzed in detail to understand program design, including requirements, processes, incentives and outcomes, focusing on savings and participation. The report presents information about specific programs, aggregated program trends and observations, and recommendations for future cold weather climate whole home program design and implementation. This study makes several recommendations to whole home program designers and implementers on improving the cost-effectiveness and reach of whole home programs.

  15. Survey of Whole House Programs in Midwestern Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McGeough, U. [Partnership for Advanced Residential Retrofit (PARR), Des Plaines, IL (United States); Baker, W. [Partnership for Advanced Residential Retrofit (PARR), Des Plaines, IL (United States); Peters, J. [Partnership for Advanced Residential Retrofit (PARR), Des Plaines, IL (United States); Beitel, A. [Partnership for Advanced Residential Retrofit (PARR), Des Plaines, IL (United States)

    2012-11-01

    In this project, existing single-family whole home energy efficiency programs in cold weather climates, focused on the Midwest, were analyzed in detail to understand program design, including requirements, processes, incentives and outcomes, focusing on savings and participation. The report presents information about specific programs, aggregated program trends and observations, and recommendations for future cold weather climate whole home program design and implementation. This study makes several recommendations to whole home program designers and implementers on improving the cost effectiveness and reach of whole home programs.

  16. Managing protected areas under climate change: challenges and priorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rannow, Sven; Macgregor, Nicholas A; Albrecht, Juliane; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Förster, Michael; Heiland, Stefan; Janauer, Georg; Morecroft, Mike D; Neubert, Marco; Sarbu, Anca; Sienkiewicz, Jadwiga

    2014-10-01

    The implementation of adaptation actions in local conservation management is a new and complex task with multiple facets, influenced by factors differing from site to site. A transdisciplinary perspective is therefore required to identify and implement effective solutions. To address this, the International Conference on Managing Protected Areas under Climate Change brought together international scientists, conservation managers, and decision-makers to discuss current experiences with local adaptation of conservation management. This paper summarizes the main issues for implementing adaptation that emerged from the conference. These include a series of conclusions and recommendations on monitoring, sensitivity assessment, current and future management practices, and legal and policy aspects. A range of spatial and temporal scales must be considered in the implementation of climate-adapted management. The adaptation process must be area-specific and consider the ecosystem and the social and economic conditions within and beyond protected area boundaries. However, a strategic overview is also needed: management at each site should be informed by conservation priorities and likely impacts of climate change at regional or even wider scales. Acting across these levels will be a long and continuous process, requiring coordination with actors outside the "traditional" conservation sector. To achieve this, a range of research, communication, and policy/legal actions is required. We identify a series of important actions that need to be taken at different scales to enable managers of protected sites to adapt successfully to a changing climate.

  17. Climate leadership program: Building Africa's resilience through ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Building Africa's resilience to climate change will require designing and implementing effective climate adaptation strategies. Science-informed policy, planning, and practice will ensure that development is more resilient and less vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change. However, the generation and use of ...

  18. A Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mearns, L. O.; Gutowski, William; Jones, Richard; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; McGinnis, Seth; Nunes, A.; Qian, Yun

    2009-09-08

    There are two main uncertainties in determining future climate: the trajectories of future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and the response of the global climate system to any given set of future emissions [Meehl et al., 2007]. These uncertainties normally are elucidated via application of global climate models, which provide information at relatively coarse spatial resolutions. Greater interest in, and concern about, the details of climate change at regional scales has provided the motivation for the application of regional climate models, which introduces additional uncertainty [Christensen et al., 2007a]. These uncertainties in fi ne- scale regional climate responses, in contrast to uncertainties of coarser spatial resolution global models in which regional models are nested, now have been documented in numerous contexts [Christensen et al., 2007a] and have been found to extend to uncertainties in climate impacts [Wood et al., 2004; Oleson et al., 2007]. While European research in future climate projections has moved forward systematically to examine combined uncertainties from global and regional models [Christensen et al., 2007b], North American climate programs have lagged behind. To fi ll this research gap, scientists developed the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (-NARCCAP). The fundamental scientifi c motivation of this international program is to explore separate and combined uncertainties in regional projections of future climate change resulting from the use of multiple atmosphere- ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) to drive multiple regional climate models (RCMs). An equally important, and related, motivation for this program is to provide the climate impacts and adaptation community with high- resolution regional climate change scenarios that can be used for studies of the societal impacts of climate change and possible adaptation strategies.

  19. Adaptive Effectiveness of Irrigated Area Expansion in Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Northern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianyi Zhang

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available To improve adaptive capacity and further strengthen the role of irrigation in mitigating climate change impacts, the Chinese government has planned to expand irrigated areas by 4.4% by the 2030s. Examining the adaptive potential of irrigated area expansion under climate change is therefore critical. Here, we assess the effects of irrigated area expansion on crop yields based on county-level data during 1980–2011 in northern China and estimate climate impacts under irrigated area scenarios in the 2030s. Based on regression analysis, there is a statistically significant effect of irrigated area expansion on reducing negative climate impacts. More irrigated areas indicate less heat and drought impacts. Irrigated area expansion will alleviate yield reduction by 0.7–0.8% in the future but associated yield benefits will still not compensate for greater adverse climate impacts. Yields are estimated to decrease by 4.0–6.5% under future climate conditions when an additional 4.4% of irrigated area is established, and no fundamental yield increase with an even further 10% or 15% expansion of irrigated area is predicted. This finding suggests that expected adverse climate change risks in the 2030s cannot be mitigated by expanding irrigated areas. A combination of this and other adaptation programs is needed to guarantee grain production under more serious drought stresses in the future.

  20. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

    2017-10-01

    We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Building an advanced climate model: Program plan for the CHAMMP (Computer Hardware, Advanced Mathematics, and Model Physics) Climate Modeling Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-12-01

    The issue of global warming and related climatic changes from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has received prominent attention during the past few years. The Computer Hardware, Advanced Mathematics, and Model Physics (CHAMMP) Climate Modeling Program is designed to contribute directly to this rapid improvement. The goal of the CHAMMP Climate Modeling Program is to develop, verify, and apply a new generation of climate models within a coordinated framework that incorporates the best available scientific and numerical approaches to represent physical, biogeochemical, and ecological processes, that fully utilizes the hardware and software capabilities of new computer architectures, that probes the limits of climate predictability, and finally that can be used to address the challenging problem of understanding the greenhouse climate issue through the ability of the models to simulate time-dependent climatic changes over extended times and with regional resolution.

  2. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of Climate Change Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mearns, L. O.

    2012-12-01

    The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is an international program that is serving the climate scenario needs of the United States, Canada, and northern Mexico. We are systematically investigating the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and producing high resolution climate change scenarios using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) and multiple global model responses by nesting the RCMs within atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with a medium-high emissions scenario, over a domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The project also includes a validation component through nesting the participating RCMs within the NCEP reanalysis R2. The basic spatial resolution of the RCM simulations is 50 km. This program includes six different RCMs that have been used in various intercomparison programs in Europe and the United States. Four different AOGCMs provide boundary conditions to drive the RCMS for 30 years in the current climate and 30 years for the mid 21st century. The resulting climate model simulations form the basis for multiple high resolution climate scenarios that can be used in climate change impacts and adaptation assessments over North America. All 12 sets of current and future simulations have been completed. Measures of uncertainty across the multiple simulations are being developed by geophysical statisticians. In this overview talk, results from the various climate change experiments for various subregions, along with measures of uncertainty, will be presented

  3. Tracking climatically suitable areas for an endemic Cerrado snake under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Vasconcelos, Tiago da Silveira

    2014-01-01

    This study explores how climate change could potentially drive shifts in the geographic range of the Cerrado endemic snake Phalotris latiuittatus. By using three ecological niche modeling methods, I found that P. lativittatus is more likely to occur in the extent of its known geographic distribution (in Southeastern Brazil), but new distribution areas also include semideciduous forest southwestward from current occurrence points, as well as areas in the Cerrado and semideciduous forest northe...

  4. Protected areas offer refuge from invasive species spreading under climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gallardo, B.; Aldridge, D.; González-Moreno, P.; Pergl, Jan; Pizarro, M.; Pyšek, Petr; Thuiller, W.; Yesson, C.; Vila, M.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 12 (2017), s. 5331-5343 ISSN 1354-1013 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36079G Grant - others:AV ČR(CZ) AP1002; COST(XE) TD1209 Program:Akademická prémie - Praemium Academiae; FA Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : climate change * protected areas * invasions Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Entomology Impact factor: 8.502, year: 2016

  5. The Shifting Climate Portfolio of the Greater Yellowstone Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepulveda, Adam J; Tercek, Michael T; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Ray, Andrew M; Thoma, David P; Hossack, Blake R; Pederson, Gregory T; Rodman, Ann W; Olliff, Tom

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of climatic variability at small spatial extents (Yellowstone Area (GYA) of the interior western United States. This important biological reserve is the largest protected area in the Lower 48 states and provides critical habitat for some of the world's most iconic wildlife. We focused our analyses on temporal shifts and shape changes in the annual distributions of seasonal minimum and maximum air temperatures among valley-bottom and higher elevation sites from 1948-2012. We documented consistent patterns of warming since 1948 at all 50 sites, with the most pronounced changes occurring during the Winter and Summer when minimum and maximum temperature distributions increased. These shifts indicate more hot temperatures and less cold temperatures would be expected across the GYA. Though the shifting statistical distributions indicate warming, little change in the shape of the temperature distributions across sites since 1948 suggest the GYA has maintained a diverse portfolio of temperatures within a year. Spatial heterogeneity in temperatures is likely maintained by the GYA's physiographic complexity and its large size, which encompasses multiple climate zones that respond differently to synoptic drivers. Having a diverse portfolio of temperatures may help biological reserves spread the extinction risk posed by climate change.

  6. Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning program: supporting climate science and enhancing climate services in Pacific Island Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuleshov, Yuriy; Jones, David; Hendon, Harry; Charles, Andrew; Shelton, Kay; de Wit, Roald; Cottrill, Andrew; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Atalifo, Terry; Prakash, Bipendra; Seuseu, Sunny; Kaniaha, Salesa

    2013-04-01

    predictive skill of POAMA is consistently higher than skill of statistical-based method. Presently, under the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program, we are developing dynamical model-based seasonal climate prediction for climate extremes. Of particular concern are tropical cyclones which are the most destructive weather systems that impact on coastal areas of Australia and Pacific Island Countries. To analyse historical cyclone data, we developed a consolidate archive for the Southern Hemisphere and North-Western Pacific (http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/). Using dynamical climate models (POAMA and Japan Meteorological Agency's model), we work on improving accuracy of seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity for the regions of Western Pacific. Improved seasonal climate prediction based on dynamical models will further enhance climate services in Australia and Pacific Island Countries.

  7. Climate services for an urban area (Baia Mare City, Romania) with a focus on climate extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sima, Mihaela; Micu, Dana; Dragota, Carmen-Sofia; Mihalache, Sorin

    2013-04-01

    The Baia Mare Urban System is located in the north-western part of Romania, with around 200,000 inhabitants and represents one of the most important former mining areas in the country, whose socioeconomic profile and environmental conditions have greatly changed over the last 20 years during the transition and post-transition period. Currently the mining is closed in the area, but the historical legacy of this activity has implications in terms of economic growth, social and cultural developments and environmental quality. Baia Mare city lies in an extended depression, particularly sheltered by the mountain and hilly regions located in the north and respectively, in the south-south-eastern part of it, which explains the high frequency of calm conditions and low airstream channeling occurrences. This urban system has a typically moderate temperate-continental climate, subject to frequent westerly airflows (moist), which moderate the thermal regime (without depicting severe extremes, both positive and negative) and enhance the precipitation one (entailing a greater frequency of wet extremes). During the reference period (1971-2000), the climate change signal in the area is rather weak and not statistically significant. However, since the mid 1980s, the warming signal became more evident from the observational data (Baia Mare station), showing a higher frequency of dry spells and positive extremes. The modelling experiments covering the 2021-2050 time horizon using regional (RM5.1/HadRM3Q0/RCA3) and global (ARPEGE/HadCM3Q0/BCM/ECHAM5) circulation models carried out within the ECLISE FP7 project suggest an ongoing temperature rise, associated to an intensification of temperature and precipitation extremes. In this context, the aim of this study was to evaluate how the local authorities consider and include climate change in their activity, as well as in the development plans (e.g. territorial, economic and social development plans). Individual interviews have been

  8. Climate Science Program at California State University, Northridge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele Cox, H.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.; Foley, B.

    2012-12-01

    Due to its interdisciplinary nature, climate science poses wide-ranging challenges for science and mathematics students seeking careers in this field. There is a compelling need for universities to provide coherent programs in climate science in order to train future climate scientists. With funding from NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE), California State University, Northridge (CSUN), is creating the CSUN Climate Science Program. An interdisciplinary team of faculty members is working in collaboration with UCLA, Santa Monica College and NASA/JPL partners to create a new curriculum in climate science. The resulting sequence of climate science courses, or Pathway for studying the Mathematics of Climate Change (PMCC), is integrated into a Bachelor of Science degree program in the Applied Mathematical Sciences offered by the Mathematics Department at CSUN. The PMCC consists of courses offered by the departments of Mathematics, Physics, and Geography and is designed to prepare students for Ph.D. programs in technical fields relevant to global climate change and related careers. The students who choose to follow this program will be guided to enroll in the following sequence of courses for their 12 units of upper division electives: 1) A newly created course junior level course, Math 396CL, in applied mathematics which will introduce students to applications of vector calculus and differential equations to the study of thermodynamics and atmospheric dynamics. 2) An already existing course, Math 483, with new content on mathematical modeling specialized for this program; 3) An improved version of Phys 595CL on the mathematics and physics of climate change with emphasis on Radiative Transfer; 4) A choice of Geog 407 on Remote Sensing or Geog 416 on Climate Change with updated content to train the students in the analysis of satellite data obtained with the NASA Earth Observing System and instruction in the analysis of data obtained within a Geographical

  9. Therapeutic Climate Within a Treatment Program for Categorical Deniers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, Jayson

    2017-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine whether the therapeutic climate within a sex offender "deniers" program, where denial was not challenged, would be equivalent to the therapeutic climate within a conventional program where sex offenders were admitting responsibility. Using a sample of 77 sex offenders, therapeutic alliance and group climate were measured early and late in treatment. As expected, therapeutic alliance was more difficult to attain with deniers early in treatment, particularly therapeutic bond; however, by the end of the treatment, there were no significant differences in therapeutic alliance. There did not appear to be significant differences in group climate early or late in treatment except for the deniers reporting significantly lower levels of open expression of anger and disagreement within the group and, in contrast to the admitters, making significant improvements in group climate over time. Implications for the treatment of categorical deniers and further research suggestions are discussed.

  10. Urban climate in the Tokyo metropolitan area in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Jun; Fujibe, Fumiaki; Takahashi, Hideo

    2017-09-01

    Long-term climate changes related with urbanization in Tokyo, Japan, and recent temperature and heavy rainfall distribution in the Tokyo metropolitan area are reviewed. A relatively high temperature increase in annual mean temperature at the rate of 3.0°C/century was detected in Tokyo for the period 1901-2015. Some observational evidence showed the existence of both thermal and mechanical effects of urbanization on recent heavy rainfall occurrences, and modeling studies also support precipitation enhancement. Urban influences were recognized in other climatological elements, such as number of fog days, relative humidity, and wind circulation. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  11. The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - Improved Understanding of Tropical Pacific Processes, Biases, and Climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, S. E.; Todd, J. F.

    2016-02-01

    The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International and U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR/US CLIVAR) Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within NOAA's Climate Program Office (http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP). A leading-order issue for improvement of predictions and projections of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and other important climate phenomena is the need for climate models to correctly and consistently produce the seasonally-varying background state. The CVP Program currently supports eleven projects in area of "Improved Understanding of Tropical Pacific Processes, Biases, and Climatology." Recent results from CVP-funded projects will be summarized in this poster and the development of the NOAA CVP Pacific Task Force will be discussed.

  12. What Does the Nation Need From the Federal Climate Program?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, P. A.

    2008-12-01

    Federally funded U.S. climate research has a long and strong history. This research, carried out under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program / Climate Change Science Program (USGCRP/CCSP), has led to groundbreaking developments in the understanding of past, present, and future climate, its effects on society and ecosystems, and potential response options to cope with climate variability and change. A consequence of these developments is that society's concern regarding climate change has grown significantly in the past decade and the questions that society has on the issue are now quite different than at the outset of the program in 1990. It is imperative that the climate research enterprise be responsive to this evolution, while maintaining a strong base of "discovery science" and long-term observations. In an effort to do so, the USGCRP/CCSP has initiated a bottom-up strategic planning process to account for the changing needs and emerging scientific opportunities. This talk will outline some of the key directions that have been recommended to the program from the end-user and scientific audiences with which it has had wide-ranging consultations over the past several months.

  13. The climate adaptation programs and activities of the Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendy L. Francis

    2011-01-01

    The Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative (Y2Y) is an innovative transboundary effort to protect biodiversity and facilitate climate adaptation by linking large protected core areas through compatible land uses on matrix lands. The Y2Y organization acts as the keeper of the Y2Y vision and implements two interconnected programs - Science and Action, and Vision...

  14. Patient safety climate in 92 US hospitals: differences by work area and discipline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Sara J; Gaba, David M; Falwell, Alyson; Lin, Shoutzu; Hayes, Jennifer; Baker, Laurence

    2009-01-01

    Concern about patient safety has promoted efforts to improve safety climate. A better understanding of how patient safety climate differs among distinct work areas and disciplines in hospitals would facilitate the design and implementation of interventions. To understand workers' perceptions of safety climate and ways in which climate varies among hospitals and by work area and discipline. We administered the Patient Safety Climate in Healthcare Organizations survey in 2004-2005 to personnel in a stratified random sample of 92 US hospitals. We sampled 100% of senior managers and physicians and 10% of all other workers. We received 18,361 completed surveys (52% response). The survey measured safety climate perceptions and worker and job characteristics of hospital personnel. We calculated and compared the percent of responses inconsistent with a climate of safety among hospitals, work areas, and disciplines. Overall, 17% of responses were inconsistent with a safety climate. Patient safety climate differed by hospital and among and within work areas and disciplines. Emergency department personnel perceived worse safety climate and personnel in nonclinical areas perceived better safety climate than workers in other areas. Nurses were more negative than physicians regarding their work unit's support and recognition of safety efforts, and physicians showed marginally more fear of shame than nurses. For other dimensions of safety climate, physician-nurse differences depended on their work area. Differences among and within hospitals suggest that strategies for improving safety climate and patient safety should be tailored for work areas and disciplines.

  15. South Asian Water (SAWA) Leadership Program on Climate Change ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    South Asian Water (SAWA) Leadership Program on Climate Change. Selon le cinquième rapport du Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat, les principaux risques en Asie du Sud seraient une augmentation du débordement des rivières, des inondations côtières et des inondations en milieu urbain ...

  16. Case Study Evaluation of the Boston Area Carpooling Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-05-01

    The report evaluates a carpooling program in operation in the Boston, Massachusetts area from August, 1973 through August, 1974. The program, entitled the WBZ/ALA Commuter Computer Campaign, was the first program in the nation to promote and organize...

  17. 78 FR 23818 - Urbanized Area Formula Program: Proposed Circular

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-22

    ... inaccurate, and now interprets each provision to require their application at the UZA level. In other words... Program (5337) Rural Area Formula Program (5311) Transit Oriented Development Pilot Program (section 20005...

  18. National Coral Reef Monitoring Program: Benthic Cover Derived from Analysis of Benthic Images Collected for Climate Stations across the Pacific Remote Island Areas from 2015-01-26 to 2015-04-27 (NCEI Accession 0159152)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data described here result from benthic photo-quadrat surveys conducted along transects at climate stations and permanent sites identified by the Ocean and...

  19. Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — PCMDI was established in 1989 at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), located in the San Francisco Bay area, in California. Our staff includes research...

  20. Climate change assessment for Mediterranean agricultural areas by statistical downscaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Palatella

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we produce projections of seasonal precipitation for four Mediterranean areas: Apulia region (Italy, Ebro river basin (Spain, Po valley (Italy and Antalya province (Turkey. We performed the statistical downscaling using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA in two versions: in one case Principal Component Analysis (PCA filter is applied only to predictor and in the other to both predictor and predictand. After performing a validation test, CCA after PCA filter on both predictor and predictand has been chosen. Sea level pressure (SLP is used as predictor. Downscaling has been carried out for the scenarios A2 and B2 on the basis of three GCM's: the CCCma-GCM2, the Csiro-MK2 and HadCM3. Three consecutive 30-year periods have been considered. For Summer precipitation in Apulia region we also use the 500 hPa temperature (T500 as predictor, obtaining comparable results. Results show different climate change signals in the four areas and confirm the need of an analysis that is capable of resolving internal differences within the Mediterranean region. The most robust signal is the reduction of Summer precipitation in the Ebro river basin. Other significative results are the increase of precipitation over Apulia in Summer, the reduction over the Po-valley in Spring and Autumn and the increase over the Antalya province in Summer and Autumn.

  1. Local Climate and Energy Program Model Design Guide: Enhancing Value and Creating Lasting Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    This guide draws on the experience and examples of Climate Showcase Communities as they developed innovative models for programs that could be financially viable over the long term and replicated in other communities.

  2. The Arctic Climate Modeling Program: Professional Development for Rural Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertram, Kathryn Berry

    2010-01-01

    The Arctic Climate Modeling Program (ACMP) offered yearlong science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) professional development to teachers in rural Alaska. Teacher training focused on introducing youth to workforce technologies used in Arctic research. Due to challenges in making professional development accessible to rural teachers, ACMP…

  3. Resolution on the program energy-climate; Resolution sur le paquet energie-climat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    This document presents the resolutions proposed in the resolution proposition n. 1261 and concerning the european Commission program on the energy policies and the climate change. Twelve resolution are presented on the energy sources development, the energy efficiency, the energy economy and the carbon taxes. (A.L.B.)

  4. Species area relationships in mediterranean-climate plant communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeley, Jon E.; Fotheringham, C.J.

    2003-01-01

    Aim To determine the best-fit model of species–area relationships for Mediterranean-type plant communities and evaluate how community structure affects these species–area models.Location Data were collected from California shrublands and woodlands and compared with literature reports for other Mediterranean-climate regions.Methods The number of species was recorded from 1, 100 and 1000 m2 nested plots. Best fit to the power model or exponential model was determined by comparing adjusted r2 values from the least squares regression, pattern of residuals, homoscedasticity across scales, and semi-log slopes at 1–100 m2 and 100–1000 m2. Dominance–diversity curves were tested for fit to the lognormal model, MacArthur's broken stick model, and the geometric and harmonic series.Results Early successional Western Australia and California shrublands represented the extremes and provide an interesting contrast as the exponential model was the best fit for the former, and the power model for the latter, despite similar total species richness. We hypothesize that structural differences in these communities account for the different species–area curves and are tied to patterns of dominance, equitability and life form distribution. Dominance–diversity relationships for Western Australian heathlands exhibited a close fit to MacArthur's broken stick model, indicating more equitable distribution of species. In contrast, Californian shrublands, both postfire and mature stands, were best fit by the geometric model indicating strong dominance and many minor subordinate species. These regions differ in life form distribution, with annuals being a major component of diversity in early successional Californian shrublands although they are largely lacking in mature stands. Both young and old Australian heathlands are dominated by perennials, and annuals are largely absent. Inherent in all of these ecosystems is cyclical disequilibrium caused by periodic fires. The

  5. National Estuary Program Study Area Boundaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — There are 28 National Estuary Programs (NEPs) in the U.S.that implement habitat protection and restoration projects with their partners. This work takes place within...

  6. Climatic and non-climatic drivers of spatiotemporal maize-area dynamics across the northern limit for maize production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Mette Vestergaard; Bøcher, Peder Klith; Dalgaard, Tommy

    2011-01-01

    It is expected that the ongoing anthropogenic climate change will drive changes in agricultural production and its geographic distribution. Here, we assess the extent to which climate change is already driving spatiotemporal dynamics in maize production in Denmark. We use advanced spatial...... regression modeling with multi-model averaging to assess the extent to which the recent spatiotemporal dynamics of the maize area in Denmark are driven by climate (temperature as represented by maize heating units [MHU] and growing-season precipitation), climate change and non-climatic factors (cattle...... to rising MHU at the national scale. The geographic distribution of maize cultivation in Denmark was mainly related to the distribution of cattle-livestock farming followed by sandy soils and climate (MHU). Cattle density has increased in importance over time indicating an increasing coupling of maize...

  7. Technical Basis Document for PFP Area Monitoring Dosimetry Program

    CERN Document Server

    Cooper, J R

    2000-01-01

    This document describes the phantom dosimetry used for the PFP Area Monitoring program and establishes the basis for the Plutonium Finishing Plant's (PFP) area monitoring dosimetry program in accordance with the following requirements: Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), part 835, ''Occupational Radiation Protection'' Part 835.403; Hanford Site Radiological Control Manual (HSRCM-1), Part 514; HNF-PRO-382, Area Dosimetry Program; and PNL-MA-842, Hanford External Dosimetry Technical Basis Manual.

  8. Sustained production of multi-decadal climate records - Lessons from the NOAA Climate Data Record Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, J. J.

    2015-12-01

    NOAA's Climate Data Record (CDR) Program was designed to be responsive to the needs of climate monitoring, research, and services with the ultimate aim of serving decision making across a spectrum of users for the long term. It requires the sustained production of high quality, multidecadal time series data describing the global atmosphere, oceans, and land surface that can be used for informed decision making. The challenges of a long-term program of sustaining CDRs, as contrasted with short-term efforts of traditional three-year research programs, are substantial and different. The sustained production of CDRs requires collaboration between experts in the climate community, data management, and software development and maintenance. It is also informed by scientific application and associated user feedback on the accessibility and usability of the produced CDRs. The CDR Program has developed a metric for assessing the maturity of CDRs with respect to data management, software, and user application and applied it to over 28 CDRs. The main/primary lesson learned over the past seven years is that a rigorous, team approach to data management, employing subject matter experts at every step, is critical to open and transparent production. This approach also makes it much easier to support the needs of users who want near-real-time production of "interim" CDRs for monitoring and users who want to use CDRs for tailored authoritative information, such as a drought index. This talk will review of the history of the CDR program, current status, and plans.

  9. Beowawe Geothermal Area evaluation program. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iovenitti, J. L

    1981-03-01

    Several exploration programs were conducted at the Beowawe Geothermal Prospect, Lander and Eureka County, Nevada. Part I, consisting of a shallow temperature hole program, a mercury soil sampling survey, and a self-potential survey were conducted in order to select the optimum site for an exploratory well. Part II consisted of drilling a 5927-foot exploratory well, running geophysical logs, conducting a drill stem test (2937-3208 feet), and a short-term (3-day) flow test (1655-2188 feet). All basic data collected is summarized.

  10. Design of ecoregional monitoring in conservation areas of high-latitude ecosystems under contemporary climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beever, Erik A.; Woodward, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    Land ownership in Alaska includes a mosaic of federally managed units. Within its agency’s context, each unit has its own management strategy, authority, and resources of conservation concern, many of which are migratory animals. Though some units are geographically isolated, many are nevertheless linked by paths of abiotic and biotic flows, such as rivers, air masses, flyways, and terrestrial and aquatic migration routes. Furthermore, individual land units exist within the context of a larger landscape pattern of shifting conditions, requiring managers to understand at larger spatial scales the status and trends in the synchrony and spatial concurrence of species and associated suitable habitats. Results of these changes will determine the ability of Alaska lands to continue to: provide habitat for local and migratory species; absorb species whose ranges are shifting northward; and experience mitigation or exacerbation of climate change through positive and negative atmospheric feedbacks. We discuss the geographic and statutory contexts that influence development of ecological monitoring; argue for the inclusion of significant amounts of broad-scale monitoring; discuss the importance of defining clear programmatic and monitoring objectives; and draw from lessons learned from existing long-term, broad-scale monitoring programs to apply to the specific contexts relevant to high-latitude protected areas such as those in Alaska. Such areas are distinguished by their: marked seasonality; relatively large magnitudes of contemporary change in climatic parameters; and relative inaccessibility due to broad spatial extent, very low (or zero) road density, and steep and glaciated areas. For ecological monitoring to effectively support management decisions in high-latitude areas such as Alaska, a monitoring program ideally would be structured to address the actual spatial and temporal scales of relevant processes, rather than the artificial boundaries of individual land

  11. Ethical Climate In Vocational Program Administrative Sciences Department: Student Perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retno Kusumastuti

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The existence of ethics course in the designed curriculum given, expected to shape morale and develop ethic awareness between student in their study environment. This thing will be a primary asset for graduate  candidates in the future. This research is an effort to make an image about study environment climate, that occur in Vocational Program generally, and in Administration Science particularly. The aim of this study is to describe students’ perceptions of their institution’s ethical environment. The Ethical Climate Questionnaires were completed by fifty two final-year vocational program students. The result showed that the type of consensual morality is the most dominant factor that forms ethical environment in campus.

  12. Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Molinos, Jorge; Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Burrows, Michael T; Fujii, Masahiko; Yamano, Hiroya

    2017-10-01

    Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species' climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA

  13. Climate change, habitat loss, protected areas and the climate adaptation potential of species in mediterranean ecosystems worldwide.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirk R Klausmeyer

    Full Text Available Mediterranean climate is found on five continents and supports five global biodiversity hotspots. Based on combined downscaled results from 23 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs for three emissions scenarios, we determined the projected spatial shifts in the mediterranean climate extent (MCE over the next century. Although most AOGCMs project a moderate expansion in the global MCE, regional impacts are large and uneven. The median AOGCM simulation output for the three emissions scenarios project the MCE at the end of the 21(st century in Chile will range from 129-153% of its current size, while in Australia, it will contract to only 77-49% of its current size losing an area equivalent to over twice the size of Portugal. Only 4% of the land area within the current MCE worldwide is in protected status (compared to a global average of 12% for all biome types, and, depending on the emissions scenario, only 50-60% of these protected areas are likely to be in the future MCE. To exacerbate the climate impact, nearly one third (29-31% of the land where the MCE is projected to remain stable has already been converted to human use, limiting the size of the potential climate refuges and diminishing the adaptation potential of native biota. High conversion and low protection in projected stable areas make Australia the highest priority region for investment in climate-adaptation strategies to reduce the threat of climate change to the rich biodiversity of the mediterranean biome.

  14. Climate Influence on Emerging Risk Areas for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mweya, Clement N; Mboera, Leonard E G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I

    2017-07-01

    Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a climate-related arboviral infection of animals and humans. Climate is thought to represent a threat toward emerging risk areas for RVF epidemics globally. The objective of this study was to evaluate influence of climate on distribution of suitable breeding habitats for Culex pipiens complex, potential mosquito vector responsible for transmission and distribution of disease epidemics risk areas in Tanzania. We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distribution of disease risk areas based on vectors and disease co-occurrence data approach. Climatic variables for the current and future scenarios were used as model inputs. Changes in mosquito vectors' habitat suitability in relation to disease risk areas were estimated. We used partial receiver operating characteristic and the area under the curves approach to evaluate model predictive performance and significance. Habitat suitability for Cx. pipiens complex indicated broad-scale potential for change and shift in the distribution of the vectors and disease for both 2020 and 2050 climatic scenarios. Risk areas indicated more intensification in the areas surrounding Lake Victoria and northeastern part of the country through 2050 climate scenario. Models show higher probability of emerging risk areas spreading toward the western parts of Tanzania from northeastern areas and decrease in the southern part of the country. Results presented here identified sites for consideration to guide surveillance and control interventions to reduce risk of RVF disease epidemics in Tanzania. A collaborative approach is recommended to develop and adapt climate-related disease control and prevention strategies.

  15. Wide Area Recovery and Resiliency Program (WARRP) Integrated Program Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    on National Planning Scenarios. 15. SUBJECT TERMS WARRP, Program Management 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT UU 18...Agent YELLOW, which is a mixture of the chemical warfare agents Sulfur Mustard and Lewisite, is a liquid with a garlic -like odor. Sulfur mustard

  16. Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Carlos; Roberts, David R; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Nielsen, Scott E; Stralberg, Diana; Hamann, Andreas; Mcrae, Brad H; Wang, Tongli

    2017-11-01

    As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse-resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine-resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro- and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long-term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at

  17. Areas of potential suitability and survival of Dendroctonus valens in China under extreme climate warming scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, S Y; Ge, X Z; Wang, T; Wen, J B; Zong, S X

    2015-08-01

    The areas in China with climates suitable for the potential distribution of the pest species red turpentine beetle (RTB) Dendroctonus valens LeConte (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were predicted by CLIMEX based on historical climate data and future climate data with warming estimated. The model used a historical climate data set (1971-2000) and a simulated climate data set (2010-2039) provided by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change (TYN SC 2.0). Based on the historical climate data, a wide area was available in China with a suitable climate for the beetle in which every province might contain suitable habitats for this pest, particularly all of the southern provinces. The northern limit of the distribution of the beetle was predicted to reach Yakeshi and Elunchun in Inner Mongolia, and the western boundary would reach to Keerkezi in Xinjiang Province. Based on a global-warming scenario, the area with a potential climate suited to RTB in the next 30 years (2010-2039) may extend further to the northeast. The northern limit of the distribution could reach most parts of south Heilongjiang Province, whereas the western limit would remain unchanged. Combined with the tendency for RTB to spread, the variation in suitable habitats within the scenario of extreme climate warming and the multiple geographical elements of China led us to assume that, within the next 30 years, RTB would spread towards the northeast, northwest, and central regions of China and could be a potentially serious problem for the forests of China.

  18. Hydrological regime modifications induced by climate change in Mediterranean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pumo, Dario; Caracciolo, Domenico; Viola, Francesco; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

    2015-04-01

    The knowledge of river flow regimes has a capital importance for a variety of practical applications, in water resource management, including optimal and sustainable use. Hydrological regime is highly dependent on climatic factors, among which the most important is surely the precipitation, in terms of frequency, seasonal distribution and intensity of rainfall events. The streamflow frequency regime of river basins are often summarized by flow duration curves (FDCs), that offer a simple and comprehensive graphical view of the overall historical variability associated with streamflow, and characterize the ability of the basin to provide flows of various magnitudes. Climate change is likely to lead shifts in the hydrological regime, and, consequently, in the FDCs. Staring from this premise, the primary objective of the present study is to explore the effects of potential climate changes on the hydrological regime of some small Mediterranean basins. To this aim it is here used a recent hydrological model, the ModABa model (MODel for Annual flow duration curves assessment in ephemeral small BAsins), for the probabilistic characterization of the daily streamflows in small catchments. The model has been calibrated and successively validated in a unique small catchment, where it has shown a satisfactory accuracy in reproducing the empirical FDC starting from easily derivable parameters arising from basic ecohydrological knowledge of the basin and commonly available climatic data such as daily precipitation and temperatures. Thus, this work also represents a first attempt to apply the ModABa to basins different from that used for its preliminary design in order to testing its generality. Different case studies are selected within the Sicily region; the model is first calibrated at the sites and then forced by future climatic scenarios, highlighting the principal differences emerging from the current scenario and future FDCs. The future climate scenarios are generated using

  19. Areas of climate stability of species ranges in the Brazilian Cerrado

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Terribile, Levi Carina; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus Souza; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2012-01-01

    uncertainties and to identify climatically stable areas, working with Cerrado tree species as a model organism. Ecological niche models were generated for 18 Cerrado tree species and their potential distributions were projected into past and future. Analyses of the sources of uncertainties in ensembles......Recognizing the location of climatically stable areas in the future is subjected to uncertainties from ecological niche models, climatic models, variation in species ranges responses, and from the climatic variation through time. Here, we proposed an approach based on hierarchical ANOVA to reduce...... hindcasts/forecasts revealed that the time component was the most important source of variation, whereas the climatic models had the smallest effect. The species responses to climate changes do not showed marked differences within each time period. By comparing past and future predictions, a single...

  20. 77 FR 19661 - Draft National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-02

    ... will address climate change challenges to its mission of protecting human health and the environment. Climate change alters the hydrological background in which EPA's programs function. Depending upon the... AGENCY Draft National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change AGENCY: Environmental...

  1. 77 FR 76034 - National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-26

    ... AGENCY National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change AGENCY: Environmental Protection... publishing the final ``National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change'' (2012 Strategy... light of climate change and charts key strategic actions to be taken to achieve the goals in 2012 and...

  2. Increase in quantity and quality of suitable areas for invasive species as climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertelsmeier, Cleo; Luque, Gloria M; Courchamp, Franck

    2013-12-01

    As climatically suitable range projections become increasingly used to assess distributions of species, we recommend systematic assessments of the quality of habitat in addition to the classical binary classification of habitat. We devised a method to assess occurrence probability, captured by a climatic suitability index, through which we could determine variations in the quality of potential habitat. This relative risk assessment circumvents the use of an arbitrary suitability threshold. We illustrated our method with 2 case studies on invasive ant species. We estimated invasion potential of the destroyer ant (Monomorium destructor) and the European fire ant (Myrmica rubra) on a global scale currently and by 2080 with climate change. We found that 21.1% of the world's landmass currently has a suitable climate for the destroyer ant and 16% has a suitable climate for European fire ant. Our climatic suitability index showed that both ant species would benefit from climate change, but in different ways. The size of the potential distribution increased by 35.8% for the destroyer ant. Meanwhile, the total area of potential distribution remained the same for the European fire ant (>0.05%), but the level of climatic suitability within this range increased greatly and led to an improvement in habitat quality (i.e., of invasive species' establishment likelihood). Either through quantity or quality of suitable areas, both invasive ant species are likely to increase the extent of their invasion in the future, following global climate change. Our results show that species may increase their range if either more areas become suitable or if the available areas present improved suitability. Studies in which an arbitrary suitability threshold was used may overlook changes in area quality within climatically suitable areas and as a result reach incorrect predictions. Incremento de la Cantidad y Calidad de Áreas Idóneas para Especies Invasoras a Medida que Cambia el Clima.

  3. U.S. operational space program for climate observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, H. W.

    Satellites provide two important characteristics to earth climate studies not available from other, conventional sources: (1) full global coverage, and (2) consistency within the data set. This latter arises from the fact that the satellite data are usually derived from one instrument (or at least from a small number) whereas other sources involve large numbers of separate instruments and hence exhibit a substantial standard deviation. Satellite data, of course, are more subject to bias and must therefore be carefully validated, usually via ground truth. The ISCCP and ISLSCP are examples of the increasing reliance on satellite data for climate studies. In addition to the multispectral images, quantitative products of importance are: (1) atmospheric temperature structure, (2) snow cover, (3) precipitation, (4) vegetation index, (5) maximum/minimum temperature, (6) insolation, and (7) earth radiation balance. The U.S. civil space program is presently committed to its current geostationary (GOES) and polar (NOAA) programs through this decade and to continue both programs into the next decade with spacecraft carrying improved and augmented instrumentation. GOES VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) data, presently in research status and available only for special observation periods, will become available operationally in 1987 from the current spacecraft series. GOES-Next will provide additional spectral channels, simultaneous imaging, atmospheric soundings, and possibly increased resolution starting in 1990. The NOAA follow-on spacecraft, in the same time frame, is expected to provide additional spectral channels, improved passive microwave radiometry, and possibly increased spatial resolution. The Landsat program is expected to be continued by a commercial operator following the useful life of Landsat-5. All three follow-on programs are presently at various stages of definition and procurement. Final definition may not be completed until late in 1984. However, their status

  4. Evaluating a 5 year climate change research teacher professional development program in Southern Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buck, P.; Rudd, L.; McAlister, J.; Bonde, A.

    2013-12-01

    We present results of a 5 yr NSF funded project, part of Nevada ';s Climate Change Research Education and Outreach EPSCoR award. Goals of the K-12 portion of the project included: a replicable professional development model of K-12 climate change science education for Nevada and other institutions; strengthened relationships between secondary school teachers and NSHE climate change researchers; and greater teacher pedagogical content knowledge in climate change science and greater confidence in ability to teach effectively. Two overarching research questions formed the foundation of our teacher professional development program: 1) How will climate change affect Nevada's baseline water resources (groundwater and surface water) and linked ecosystem services? 2) How will climate change affect natural and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., wildland fires, invasive species, and insect outbreaks)? All teachers participated in at least one (2-week long) summer institute and academic year follow up focused on one of two overarching research questions forming the basis of the award assisted by a disciplinary graduate student . An on-line class (ENV 794) was a 3 credit graduate credit bearing class from UNLV based on the fundamentals of climate change science was available free to participating teachers. A supplemental program in the final award year was added following advisory board recommendations to develop a cohort or "learning community" approach at an interested high school. The 'About Climate Change' Integrated Curriculum spans several subject areas and cuts across national standards for STEM English and Social Studies; a 2-week unit developed by Clark HS teachers for their classes. Our teachers increased their content knowledge about climate change science. This is indicated in student evaluations of the on-line course ENV 794, and in the summer institute post test of content knowledge which included about 25 questions. There was improvement for our one focus

  5. National Nanotechnology Initiative Investments by Agency and Program Component Area

    Data.gov (United States)

    Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President — Data represents National Nanotechnology Initiative investments by agency and program component area (PCA) from FY 2001 through FY 2010 (requested). While this data...

  6. Tanks focus area multiyear program plan - FY96-FY98

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-07-01

    The Tanks Focus Area (TFA) Multiyear Program Plan (MYPP) presents the recommended TFA technical program. The recommendation covers a 3-year funding outlook (FY96-FY98), with an emphasis on FY96 and FY97. In addition to defining the recommended program, this document also describes the processes used to develop the program, the implementation strategy for the program, the references used to write this report, data on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) tank site baselines, details on baseline assumptions and the technical elements, and a glossary.

  7. A modern pollen-climate dataset from the Darjeeling area, eastern Himalaya: Assessing its potential for past climate reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Ruby; Bruch, Angela A.; Portmann, Felix; Bera, Subir; Paruya, Dipak Kumar; Morthekai, P.; Ali, Sheikh Nawaz

    2017-10-01

    Relying on the ability of pollen assemblages to differentiate among elevationally stratified vegetation zones, we assess the potential of a modern pollen-climate dataset from the Darjeeling area, eastern Himalaya, in past climate reconstructions. The dataset includes 73 surface samples from 25 sites collected from a c. 130-3600 m a.s.l. elevation gradient along a horizontal distance of c. 150 km and 124 terrestrial pollen taxa, which are analysed with respect to various climatic and environmental variables such as mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean temperature of coldest quarter (MTCQ), mean temperature of warmest quarter (MTWQ), mean precipitation of driest quarter (MPDQ), mean precipitation of wettest quarter (MPWQ), AET (actual evapotranspiration) and MI (moisture index). To check the reliability of the modern pollen-climate relationships different ordination methods are employed and subsequently tested with Huisman-Olff-Fresco (HOF) models. A series of pollen-climate parameter transfer functions using weighted-averaging regression and calibration partial least squares (WA-PLS) models are developed to reconstruct past climate changes from modern pollen data, and have been cross-validated. Results indicate that three of the environmental variables i.e., MTCQ, MPDQ and MI have strong potential for past climate reconstruction based on the available surface pollen dataset. The potential of the present modern pollen-climate relationship for regional quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction is further tested on a Late Quaternary fossil pollen profile from the Darjeeling foothill region with previously reconstructed and quantified climate. The good agreement with existing data allows for new insights in the hydroclimatic conditions during the Last glacial maxima (LGM) with (winter) temperature being the dominant controlling factor for glacial changes during the LGM in the eastern Himalaya.

  8. Projecting environmental suitable areas for malaria transmission in China under climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hundessa, Samuel; Li, Shanshan; Liu, De Li; Guo, Jinpeng; Guo, Yuming; Zhang, Wenyi; Williams, Gail

    2018-04-01

    The proportion of imported malaria cases in China has increased over recent years, and has presented challenges for the malaria elimination program in China. However, little is known about the geographic distribution and environmental suitability for malaria transmission under projected climate change scenarios. Using the MaxEnt model based on malaria presence-only records, we produced environmental suitability maps and examined the relative contribution of topographic, demographic, and environmental risk factors for P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria in China. The MaxEnt model estimated that environmental suitability areas (ESAs) for malaria cover the central, south, southwest, east and northern regions, with a slightly wider range of ESAs extending to the northeast region for P. falciparum. There was spatial agreement between the location of imported cases and area environmentally suitable for malaria transmission. The ESAs of P. vivax and P. falciparum are projected to increase in some parts of southwest, south, central, north and northeast regions in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, by a greater amount for P. falciparum under the RCP8.5 scenario. Temperature and NDVI values were the most influential in defining the ESAs for P. vivax, and temperature and precipitation the most influential for P. falciparum malaria. This study estimated that the ESA for malaria transmission in China will increase with climate change and highlights the potential establishment of further local transmission. This model should be used to support malaria control by targeting areas where interventions on malaria transmission need to be enhanced. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Evaluating Vulnerability and Resilience between Urban and Rural Area in a Regional Water Resources System under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, T. M.; Tung, C. P.; Li, M. H.; Tsao, J. H.; Lin, C. Y.

    2014-12-01

    To the threat of climate change, the risk of water resources vary in different area but the same system because of the structure of water supply system and the different sensitivity and exposure to climate for different urbanization area. For example, the urban area with high population density is sensitive to any disturbance from drought and the rural area with unpopular tap water system is insensitive to disturbance of drought but highly risk to water shortage. The resilience of water supply relies on water storage from reservoirs or lakes and water management in urban area but relies on intake from groundwater in rural area. The strategies to water resources should be considered with the water mass flow between urban and rural area. To strengthen the whole water resources system, also, it is important to find where the vulnerability from, how to reduce it and how to build up the resilience for both urban and rural area. This study aims to evaluate the vulnerability and resilience of water resources in different township and city but in the same system. An integrated tool - TaiWAP (Taiwan Water Resources Assessment Program) for climate change vulnerability assessment on water resources is used for climate impact assessment. For the simulation of the complex water supply system, the system dynamics model- VENSIM which is connected with TaiWAP is adopted to simulate a water supply system and evaluate risk of each township and city in a water supply system. The cause of vulnerability will be identified and discussed in both urban and rural. The strategies to reduce vulnerability of water resources for urban and rural will be proposed and discussed in this study.

  10. THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABLES AND CROP AREA ON MAIZE YIELD AND VARIABILITY IN GHANA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry De-Graft Acquah

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change tends to have negative effects on crop yield through its influence on crop production. Understanding the relationship between climatic variables and crop area on the mean and variance of crop yield will facilitate development of appropriate policies to cope with climate change. This paper examines the effects of climatic variables and crop area on the mean and variance of maize yield in Ghana. The Just and Pope stochastic production function using the Cobb-Douglas functional form was employed. The results show that average maize yield is positively related to crop area and negatively related to rainfall and temperature. Furthermore, increase in crop area and temperature will enlarge maize yield variability while rainfall increase will decrease the variability in maize yield.

  11. Can local voluntary environmental programs "work"? An examination of Fort Collins' (Colorado) climate wise program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosier, Samantha; Samantha, Mosier; Fisk, Jonathan; Jonathan, Fisk

    2013-05-01

    Previous research on voluntary environmental programs (VEPs) frequently assesses the effectiveness of federal, state, and third party programs and why organizations seek to join such programs. Yet, research has yet to evaluate the effectiveness or firm motivation relative to local VEPs. Recognizing this gap, our paper examines the structure and organization of Fort Collins' Climate Wise program, a local VEP. Using a variety of sources, we find that the program has successfully met both short- and long-term goals by persistently self-evaluating and seeking outside financial support. Findings from this analysis can aid in understanding and developing local VEPs elsewhere. Specifically, this initial research suggests that local VEPs need to consider local context and available resources when implementing such programs. Furthermore, it is possible for local VEPs to attract a diverse variety of participating firms by avoiding one-size-fits-all participation levels and by establishing a sense of ownership among partners.

  12. Can Local Voluntary Environmental Programs "Work"? An Examination of Fort Collins' (Colorado) Climate Wise Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samantha, Mosier; Jonathan, Fisk

    2013-05-01

    Previous research on voluntary environmental programs (VEPs) frequently assesses the effectiveness of federal, state, and third party programs and why organizations seek to join such programs. Yet, research has yet to evaluate the effectiveness or firm motivation relative to local VEPs. Recognizing this gap, our paper examines the structure and organization of Fort Collins' Climate Wise program, a local VEP. Using a variety of sources, we find that the program has successfully met both short- and long-term goals by persistently self-evaluating and seeking outside financial support. Findings from this analysis can aid in understanding and developing local VEPs elsewhere. Specifically, this initial research suggests that local VEPs need to consider local context and available resources when implementing such programs. Furthermore, it is possible for local VEPs to attract a diverse variety of participating firms by avoiding one-size-fits-all participation levels and by establishing a sense of ownership among partners.

  13. NASA's Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) Program: New modules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witiw, M. R.; Myers, R. J.; Schwerin, T. G.

    2010-12-01

    In existence for over 10 years, the Earth System Science Educational Alliance (ESSEA) through the Institute of Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) has developed a series of modules on Earth system science topics. To date, over 80 educational modules have been developed. The primary purpose of these modules is to provide graduate courses for teacher education. A typical course designed for teachers typically consists of from three to five content modules and a primer on problem-based learning. Each module is designed to take three weeks in a normal university semester. Course delivery methods vary. Some courses are completed totally online. Others are presented in the classroom. Still others are delivered using a hybrid method which combines classroom meetings with online delivery of content. Although originally designed for teachers and education students, recent changes, provide a format for general education students to use these module. In 2009, under NASA’s Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) initiative, IGES was tasked to develop 16 new modules addressing the topic of climate change. Two of the modules recently developed under this program address the topics of sunspots and thermal islands. Sunspots is a problem-based learning module where students are provided resources and sample investigations related to sunspots. The history of sunspot observations, the structure of sunspots and the possible role sunspots may have in Earth’s climate are explored. Students are then asked to determine what effects a continued minimum in sunspot activity may have on the climate system. In Thermal Islands, the topic of urban heat islands is addressed. How heat islands are produced and the role of urban heat islands in exacerbating heat waves are two of the topics covered in the resources. In this problem-based learning module, students are asked to think of mitigating strategies for these thermal islands as Earth’s urban population grows over the next 50 years

  14. Incorporating climate change into conservation planning: Identifying priority areas across a species’ range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard G Pearson

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Theoretical and practical approaches associated with conservation biogeography, including ecological niche modeling, have been applied to the difficult task of determining how to incorporate climate change into conservation prioritization methodologies. Most studies have focused on identifying species that are most at risk from climate change, but here we asked, which areas within a species’ range does climate change threaten most? We explored methods for incorporating climate change within a range-wide conservation planning framework, using a case study of jaguars (Panthera onca. We used ecological niche models to estimate exposure to climate change across the range of the jaguar and incorporated these estimates into habitat quality scores for re-prioritization of high-priority areas for jaguar conservation. Methods such as these are needed to guide prioritization of geographically-specific actions for conservation across a species’ range.

  15. Sustainability Challenges from Climate Change and Air Conditioning Use in Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Lundgren

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change increases heat loads in urban areas causing health and productivity risks for millions of people. Inhabitants in tropical and subtropical urban areas are at especial risk due to high population density, already high temperatures, and temperature increases due to climate change. Air conditioning is growing rapidly, especially in South and South-East Asia due to income growth and the need to protect from high heat exposures. Studies have linked increased total hourly electricity use to outdoor temperatures and humidity; modeled future predictions when facing additional heat due to climate change, related air conditioning with increased street level heat and estimated future air conditioning use in major urban areas. However, global and localized studies linking climate variables with air conditioning alone are lacking. More research and detailed data is needed looking at the effects of increasing air conditioning use, electricity consumption, climate change and interactions with the urban heat island effect. Climate change mitigation, for example using renewable energy sources, particularly photovoltaic electricity generation, to power air conditioning, and other sustainable methods to reduce heat exposure are needed to make future urban areas more climate resilient.

  16. Anthropogenic Climate Change in Undergraduate Marine and Environmental Science Programs in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlietstra, Lucy S.; Mrakovcich, Karina L.; Futch, Victoria C.; Stutzman, Brooke S.

    2016-01-01

    To develop a context for program-level design decisions pertaining to anthropogenic climate change, the authors studied the prevalence of courses focused on human-induced climate change in undergraduate marine science and environmental science degree programs in the United States. Of the 86 institutions and 125 programs the authors examined, 37%…

  17. The reduced effectiveness of protected areas under climate change threatens Atlantic forest tiger moths.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viviane G Ferro

    Full Text Available Climate change leads to species' range shifts, which may end up reducing the effectiveness of protected areas. These deleterious changes in biodiversity may become amplified if they include functionally important species, such as herbivores or pollinators. We evaluated how effective protected areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest are in maintaining the diversity of tiger moths (Arctiinae under climate change. Specifically, we assessed whether protected areas will gain or lose species under climate change and mapped their locations in the Atlantic Forest, in order to assess potential spatial patterns of protected areas that will gain or lose species richness. Comparisons were completed using modeled species occurrence data based on the current and projected climate in 2080. We also built a null model for random allocation of protected areas to identify where reductions in species richness will be more severe than expected. We employed several modern techniques for modeling species' distributions and summarized results using ensembles of models. Our models indicate areas of high species richness in the central and southern regions of the Atlantic Forest both for now and the future. However, we estimate that in 2080 these regions should become climatically unsuitable, decreasing the species' distribution area. Around 4% of species were predicted to become extinct, some of them being endemic to the biome. Estimates of species turnover from current to future climate tended to be high, but these findings are dependent on modeling methods. Our most important results show that only a few protected areas in the southern region of the biome would gain species. Protected areas in semideciduous forests in the western region of the biome would lose more species than expected by the null model employed. Hence, current protected areas are worse off, than just randomly selected areas, at protecting species in the future.

  18. The reduced effectiveness of protected areas under climate change threatens Atlantic forest tiger moths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferro, Viviane G; Lemes, Priscila; Melo, Adriano S; Loyola, Rafael

    2014-01-01

    Climate change leads to species' range shifts, which may end up reducing the effectiveness of protected areas. These deleterious changes in biodiversity may become amplified if they include functionally important species, such as herbivores or pollinators. We evaluated how effective protected areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest are in maintaining the diversity of tiger moths (Arctiinae) under climate change. Specifically, we assessed whether protected areas will gain or lose species under climate change and mapped their locations in the Atlantic Forest, in order to assess potential spatial patterns of protected areas that will gain or lose species richness. Comparisons were completed using modeled species occurrence data based on the current and projected climate in 2080. We also built a null model for random allocation of protected areas to identify where reductions in species richness will be more severe than expected. We employed several modern techniques for modeling species' distributions and summarized results using ensembles of models. Our models indicate areas of high species richness in the central and southern regions of the Atlantic Forest both for now and the future. However, we estimate that in 2080 these regions should become climatically unsuitable, decreasing the species' distribution area. Around 4% of species were predicted to become extinct, some of them being endemic to the biome. Estimates of species turnover from current to future climate tended to be high, but these findings are dependent on modeling methods. Our most important results show that only a few protected areas in the southern region of the biome would gain species. Protected areas in semideciduous forests in the western region of the biome would lose more species than expected by the null model employed. Hence, current protected areas are worse off, than just randomly selected areas, at protecting species in the future.

  19. U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Vision for the Program and Highlights of the Scientific Strategic Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-01-01

    The vision document provides an overview of the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) long-term strategic plan to enhance scientific understanding of global climate change.This document is a companion to the comprehensive Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program. The report responds to the Presidents direction that climate change research activities be accelerated to provide the best possible scientific information to support public discussion and decisionmaking on climate-related issues.The plan also responds to Section 104 of the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which mandates the development and periodic updating of a long-term national global change research plan coordinated through the National Science and Technology Council.This is the first comprehensive update of a strategic plan for U.S. global change and climate change research since the origal plan for the U.S. Global Change Research Program was adopted at the inception of the program in 1989.

  20. International and European law on protected areas and climate change: need for adaptation or implementation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cliquet, A

    2014-10-01

    The protection and management of protected areas must be adapted to the effects of climate change. An important question is if the law on protected areas is capable of dealing with the required changes. In general, both international nature conventions and European Union nature conservation law do not contain any specific provisions on climate change and protected areas. Attention has been paid to this link in non-binding decisions and policy documents. In order to adapt the law to increased dynamics from climate change, more flexibility is needed. This flexibility should not be understood as "legal" flexibility, in the sense of the weakening nature conservation provisions. Scientific uncertainties on the effects of climate change might conflict with the need for legal certainties. In order to adapt to the effects of climate change, the two crucial elements are the strengthening of core protected areas and connectivity between the core areas. At the international level, both elements can be found in non-binding documents. International law enables the required adaptation; however, it often lacks concrete obligations. A stronger legal framework can be found at the level of the European Union. The Birds and Habitats Directives contain sufficient tools to deal with the effects of climate change. The Directives have been insufficiently implemented so far. Especially the central goals of reaching a favorable conservation status and connectivity measures need to be addressed much more in the future.

  1. Assessing climate change-robustness of protected area management plans—The case of Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geyer, Juliane; Kreft, Stefan; Jeltsch, Florian; Ibisch, Pierre L.

    2017-01-01

    Protected areas are arguably the most important instrument of biodiversity conservation. To keep them fit under climate change, their management needs to be adapted to address related direct and indirect changes. In our study we focus on the adaptation of conservation management planning, evaluating management plans of 60 protected areas throughout Germany with regard to their climate change-robustness. First, climate change-robust conservation management was defined using 11 principles and 44 criteria, which followed an approach similar to sustainability standards. We then evaluated the performance of individual management plans concerning the climate change-robustness framework. We found that climate change-robustness of protected areas hardly exceeded 50 percent of the potential performance, with most plans ranking in the lower quarter. Most Natura 2000 protected areas, established under conservation legislation of the European Union, belong to the sites with especially poor performance, with lower values in smaller areas. In general, the individual principles showed very different rates of accordance with our principles, but similarly low intensity. Principles with generally higher performance values included holistic knowledge management, public accountability and acceptance as well as systemic and strategic coherence. Deficiencies were connected to dealing with the future and uncertainty. Lastly, we recommended the presented principles and criteria as essential guideposts that can be used as a checklist for working towards more climate change-robust planning. PMID:28982187

  2. Assessing climate change-robustness of protected area management plans-The case of Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geyer, Juliane; Kreft, Stefan; Jeltsch, Florian; Ibisch, Pierre L

    2017-01-01

    Protected areas are arguably the most important instrument of biodiversity conservation. To keep them fit under climate change, their management needs to be adapted to address related direct and indirect changes. In our study we focus on the adaptation of conservation management planning, evaluating management plans of 60 protected areas throughout Germany with regard to their climate change-robustness. First, climate change-robust conservation management was defined using 11 principles and 44 criteria, which followed an approach similar to sustainability standards. We then evaluated the performance of individual management plans concerning the climate change-robustness framework. We found that climate change-robustness of protected areas hardly exceeded 50 percent of the potential performance, with most plans ranking in the lower quarter. Most Natura 2000 protected areas, established under conservation legislation of the European Union, belong to the sites with especially poor performance, with lower values in smaller areas. In general, the individual principles showed very different rates of accordance with our principles, but similarly low intensity. Principles with generally higher performance values included holistic knowledge management, public accountability and acceptance as well as systemic and strategic coherence. Deficiencies were connected to dealing with the future and uncertainty. Lastly, we recommended the presented principles and criteria as essential guideposts that can be used as a checklist for working towards more climate change-robust planning.

  3. A Geographic Mosaic of Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Vegetation: Which Areas Are Most at Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerly, David D; Cornwell, William K; Weiss, Stuart B; Flint, Lorraine E; Flint, Alan L

    2015-01-01

    Changes in climate projected for the 21st century are expected to trigger widespread and pervasive biotic impacts. Forecasting these changes and their implications for ecosystem services is a major research goal. Much of the research on biotic responses to climate change has focused on either projected shifts in individual species distributions or broad-scale changes in biome distributions. Here, we introduce a novel application of multinomial logistic regression as a powerful approach to model vegetation distributions and potential responses to 21st century climate change. We modeled the distribution of 22 major vegetation types, most defined by a single dominant woody species, across the San Francisco Bay Area. Predictor variables included climate and topographic variables. The novel aspect of our model is the output: a vector of relative probabilities for each vegetation type in each location within the study domain. The model was then projected for 54 future climate scenarios, spanning a representative range of temperature and precipitation projections from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. We found that sensitivity of vegetation to climate change is highly heterogeneous across the region. Surprisingly, sensitivity to climate change is higher closer to the coast, on lower insolation, north-facing slopes and in areas of higher precipitation. While such sites may provide refugia for mesic and cool-adapted vegetation in the face of a warming climate, the model suggests they will still be highly dynamic and relatively sensitive to climate-driven vegetation transitions. The greater sensitivity of moist and low insolation sites is an unexpected outcome that challenges views on the location and stability of climate refugia. Projections provide a foundation for conservation planning and land management, and highlight the need for a greater understanding of the mechanisms and time scales of potential climate-driven vegetation transitions.

  4. The African Climate Change Fellowship Program Phase III | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate change and climate variability are significantly impeding development in Africa. The Economic Commission for Africa argues that scientists and policymakers must learn to better manage climate risks and to integrate climate change considerations into future development strategies. To do so, scientists and ...

  5. Natural areas as a basis for assessing ecosystem vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margaret H. Massie; Todd M. Wilson; Anita T. Morzillo; Emilie B. Henderson

    2016-01-01

    There are more than 580 natural areas in Oregon and Washington managed by 20 federal, state, local, and private agencies and organizations. This natural areas network is unparalleled in its representation of the diverse ecosystems found in the Pacific Northwest, and could prove useful for monitoring long-term ecological responses to climate change. Our objectives were...

  6. Risk to a Changing Climate in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas, N. D.

    2016-12-01

    The issue of climate change has dominated the atmospheric sciences agenda in recent decades. The concern about an increase in climate related disasters, mainly in large population centers, has led to ask whether they are mainly due to changes in climate or in vulnerability.The Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) is an example of megalopolis under high climate risk, where floods, landslides, health problems, high air pollution events, socioeconomic droughts are becoming important environmental and social problems. As urbanization spreads and population increases exposure to natural hazards increases, and so the magnitude of risk to a changing climate and the negative impacts. Since the late nineteenth century, in the MCMA an average maximum temperature could be around 22°C, whereas today it is about 24.5ºC. That is, the increase in the average temperature in Mexico City is around 3°C in a hundred years. But there are areas where an increase in the average temperature is similar in only thirty years. The heating rate of the city can vary depending on the change in land use. Areas that conserve forested regions in the process of urbanization tend to warm less than areas where the transformation into concrete and cement is almost complete. Thus, the climate of the MCMA shows important changes mainly in relation to land use changes. Global warming and natural climate variability were also analyzed as possible forcing factors of the observed warming by comparing low frequency variations in local temperature and indices for natural forcing. The hydrological cycle of the MCMA has also changed with urbanization. The "bubble of hot air" over the urban area has more capacity to hold moisture now than before the UHI. However, the increased risk to floods, heat or drought appears to be related not only to more frequent intense climatic hazards induced by the urbanization effect. This process also induces increased vulnerability to a changing climate. The establishment of

  7. 77 FR 59931 - Single Source Program Expansion Supplement Award to Area Health Education Centers (AHEC) Program...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    ... University of Guam School of Nursing, an Area Health Education Center (AHEC) Program grantee, to coordinate... baccalaureate nursing education program in the Pacific. Its focus is on health careers training and development... only nationally accredited baccalaureate nursing education program in the Pacific. The Guam/Micronesia...

  8. Southern Foresters' Perceptions of Climate Change: Implications for Educational Program Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boby, Leslie; Hubbard, William; Megalos, Mark; Morris, Hilary L. C.

    2016-01-01

    An understanding of foresters' perceptions of climate change is important for developing effective educational programs on adaptive forest management. We surveyed 1,398 foresters in the southern United States regarding their perceptions of climate change, observations and concerns about climatic and forest conditions, and knowledge of and interest…

  9. 76 FR 55673 - Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-08

    ... AGENCY Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach... period for the draft documents titled, Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready... Partnership (EPA/600/R-11/ 058a) and Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries...

  10. Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

    2017-12-15

    Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Impact of Climate Change on Air Quality and Public Health in Urban Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Noor Artika; Hashim, Zailina; Hashim, Jamal Hisham

    2016-03-01

    This review discusses how climate undergo changes and the effect of climate change on air quality as well as public health. It also covers the inter relationship between climate and air quality. The air quality discussed here are in relation to the 5 criteria pollutants; ozone (O3), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and particulate matter (PM). Urban air pollution is the main concern due to higher anthropogenic activities in urban areas. The implications on health are also discussed. Mitigating measures are presented with the final conclusion. © 2015 APJPH.

  12. Forest land suitability in a Mediterranean area under climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Anaya-Romero, María; Kotb Abd-Elmabod, Sameh; De la Rosa, Diego

    2013-04-01

    As a consequence of the increasing level of atmospheric CO2 and air temperatures, global climate is changing leading to warmer and often drier conditions in many forest ecosystems. The Mediterranean area is particularly vulnerable to climate change as a result of a combination of environmental and human factors. An adequate forest management is associated to improvement of habitat suitability for soil and water quality, climate regulation and other important ecosystem services. The MicroLEIS decision support system (MicroLEIS DSS), through its 12 land evaluation models, is a useful tool to assist decision-makers with specific agro-ecological problems. Among the land evaluation models, Sierra was specifically designed to assess forestry land suitability for restoration of semi-natural habitats in marginal agricultural lands. This model selects up to 22 forest species adapted to Mediterranean conditions based on latitude, longitude, physiographic position, useful depth, texture, drainage, pH, summer and winter temperatures, and precipitation. In this research, Sierra model was applied in 35 benchmark sites representative of the natural regions (NUTS2) of a Mediterranean area (Andalusia, Southern Spain) in current and future climate scenarios for the A1B IPPC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) and the periods 2040, 2070 and 2100. Data was obtained from SEISnet soil database, CDBm climate database and the future climate change variation values of the State Meteorological Agency. The results showed that Pinus Pinea, Pinus halepensis, Quercus Ilex and Quercus suber are the most suitable forest species in actual and future climate scenarios for the selected marginal lands, according to the tolerance ranges for standard soil and climate variables of the forest species. Various forest species showed a potential aptitude for reforestation in future climate scenarios (i.e. Quercus), whereas others such as Castanea Sativa will not be suitable in the study area in 2070

  13. Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Services in High Mountain Areas: A Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Palomo

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available High mountain areas are experiencing some of the earliest and greatest impacts of climate change. However, knowledge on how climate change impacts multiple ecosystem services that benefit different stakeholder groups remains scattered in the literature. This article presents a review of the literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services benefiting local communities and tourists in high mountain areas. Results show a lack of studies focused on the global South, especially where there are tropical glaciers, which are likely to be the first to disappear. Climate change impacts can be classified as impacts on food and feed, water availability, natural hazards regulation, spirituality and cultural identity, aesthetics, and recreation. In turn, climate change impacts on infrastructure and accessibility also affect ecosystem services. Several of these impacts are a direct threat to the lives of mountain peoples, their livelihoods and their culture. Mountain tourism is experiencing abrupt changes too. The magnitude of impacts make it necessary to strengthen measures to adapt to climate change in high mountain areas.

  14. Identifying Effective Strategies for Climate Change Education: The Coastal Areas Climate Change Education (CACCE) Partnership Audiences and Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, J. G.; Feldman, A.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Gilbes, F.; Stone, D.; Plank, L.; Reynolds, C. J.

    2011-12-01

    Many past educational initiatives focused on global climate change have foundered on public skepticism and disbelief. Some key reasons for these past failures can be drawn directly from recognized best practices in STEM education - specifically, the necessity to help learners connect new knowledge with their own experiences and perspectives, and the need to create linkages with issues or concerns that are both important for and relevant to the audiences to be educated. The Coastal Areas Climate Change Education (CACCE) partnership has sought to follow these tenets as guiding principles in identifying critical audiences and developing new strategies for educating the public living in the low-lying coastal areas of Florida and the Caribbean on the realities, risks, and adaptation and mitigation strategies for dealing with the regional impacts of global climate change. CACCE is currently focused on three key learner audiences: a) The formal education spectrum, targeting K-12 curricula through middle school marine science courses, and student and educator audiences through coursework and participatory research strategies engaging participants in a range of climate-related investigations. b) Informal science educators and outlets, in particular aquaria and nature centers, as an avenue toward K-12 teacher professional development as well as for public education. c) Regional planning, regulatory and business professionals focused on the built environment along the coasts, many of whom require continuing education to maintain licensing and/or other professional certifications. Our current activities are focused on bringing together an effective set of educational, public- and private-sector partners to target the varied needs of these audiences in Florida and the U.S. Caribbean, and tailoring an educational plan aimed at these stakeholder audiences that starts with the regionally and topically relevant impacts of climate change, and strategies for effective adaptation and

  15. Development and nationwide scale-up of Climate Matters, a localized climate change education program delivered by TV weathercasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullen, H. M.; Maibach, E.

    2016-12-01

    Most Americans view climate change as a threat that is distant in space (i.e., not here), time (i.e., not now), and species (i.e., not us). TV weathercasters are ideally positioned to educate Americans about the current and projected impacts of climate change in their community: they have tremendous reach, are trusted sources of climate information, and are highly skilled science communicators. In 2009, we learned that many weathercasters were potentially interested in reporting on climate change, but few actually were, citing significant barriers including a lack of time to prepare and air stories, and lack of access to high quality content. To test the premise that TV weathercasters can be effective climate educators - if supported with high quality localized climate communication content - in 2010 George Mason University, Climate Central and WLTX-TV (Columbia, SC) developed and pilot-tested Climate Matters, a series of short on-air (and online) segments about the local impacts of climate change, delivered by the station's chief meteorologist. During the first year, more than a dozen stories aired. To formally evaluate Climate Matters, we conducted pre- and post-test surveys of local TV news viewers in Columbia. After one year, WLTX viewers had developed a more science-based understanding of climate change than viewers of other local news stations, confirming our premise that when TV weathercasters report on the local implications of climate change, their viewers learn. Through a series of expansions, including the addition of important new partners - AMS, NASA, NOAA & Yale University - Climate Matters has become a comprehensive nationwide climate communication resource program for American TV weathercasters. As of March 2016, a network of 313 local weathercasters nationwide (at 202 stations in 111 media markets) are participating in the program, receiving new content on a weekly basis. This presentation will review the theoretical basis of the program, detail

  16. NOAA's Regional Climate Services Program: Building Relationships with Partners and Customers to Deliver Trusted Climate Information at Usable Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mecray, E. L.; Dissen, J.

    2016-12-01

    Federal agencies across multiple sectors from transportation to health, emergency management and agriculture, are now requiring their key stakeholders to identify and plan for climate-related impacts. Responding to the drumbeat for climate services at the regional and local scale, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) formed its Regional Climate Services (RCS) program to include Regional Climate Services Directors (RCSD), Regional Climate Centers, and state climatologists in a partnership. Since 2010, the RCS program has engaged customers across the country and amongst many of the nation's key economic sectors to compile information requirements, deliver climate-related products and services, and build partnerships among federal agencies and their regional climate entities. The talk will include a sketch from the Eastern Region that may shed light on the interaction of the multiple entities working at the regional scale. Additionally, we will show examples of our interagency work with the Department of Interior, the Department of Agriculture, and others in NOAA to deliver usable and trusted climate information and resources. These include webinars, print material, and face-to-face customer engagements to gather and respond to information requirements. NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information's RCSDs work on-the-ground to learn from customers about their information needs and their use of existing tools and resources. As regional leads, the RCSDs work within NOAA and with our regional partners to ensure the customer receives a broad picture of the tools and information from across the nation.

  17. [Responses of vegetation changes to climatic variations in Panxi area based on the MODIS multispectral data].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Huai-Yong; Wu, Jin-Hui; Liu, Meng; Yang, Wu-Nian

    2014-01-01

    It is an important research area to quantitatively studying the relationship between global climatic change and vegetation change based on the remote sensing technology. Panxi area is the ecological barrier of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and it is essential for the stability of the ecological environment of Sichuan as well as that of the whole China. The present article analyzes the vegetation change in 2001-2008 and the relationship between vegetation change and climatic variations of Panxi area, based on MODIS multispectral data and meteorological data. The results indicate that NDVI is positively correlated with temperature and precipitation. The precipitation is the major factor that affects the change of vegetation in the Panxi region and the trend of NDVI is similar with autumn precipitation; while at the same time the influence of climate has a one-month-time-lag.

  18. The Detroit Area Pre-College Engineering Program, Inc. (DAPCEP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Kenneth

    1990-01-01

    Describes activities of the Detroit Area Pre-College Engineering Program (DAPCEP), which aims to increase the number of middle school and high school minority (Black, Hispanic, and Native American) students who are motivated and prepared academically to choose careers in science, engineering, and other technical fields. Summarizes program…

  19. Projected distribution shifts and protected area coverage of range-restricted Andean birds under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verónica del Rosario Avalos

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study we projected the effect of anthropogenic climate change in endemic and restricted-range Andean bird species that spread out from the center of Bolivia to southeastern Peru. We also analyzed the representation of these species in protected areas. The ensemble forecasts from niche-based models indicated that 91–100% of species may reduce their range size under full and no dispersal scenarios, including five species that are currently threatened. The large range reduction (average 63% suggests these mountain species may be threatened by climate change. The strong effects due to range species losses are predicted in the humid mountain forests of Bolivia. The representation of bird species also decreased in protected areas. Partial gap species (94–86% are expected to increase over the present (62%. This suggests climate change and other non-climate stressors should be incorporated in conservations plans for the long-term persistence of these species. This study anticipates the magnitude of shifts in the distribution of endemic birds, and represents in the study area the first exploration of the representation of range-restricted Andean birds in protected areas under climate change.

  20. 76 FR 20974 - Implications of Climate Change for Bioassessment Programs and Approaches To Account for Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-14

    ... advance the development of specific strategies to ensure the effectiveness of monitoring and management... identified in the ``National Water Program Strategy: A Response to Climate Change'' (U.S. EPA, 2008; http... AGENCY Implications of Climate Change for Bioassessment Programs and Approaches To Account for Effects...

  1. 75 FR 22391 - Notice of Web Site Publication for the Climate Program Office

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-28

    ... Office AGENCY: Climate Program Office (CPO), Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), National... Climate Program Office Web site pertaining to the CPO's research strategies, objectives, and priorities... content of the Letter of Intent. Letters of Intent are due to the CPO by 5 p.m. EST on May 26, 2010. While...

  2. Contributions of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program and the ARM Climate Research Facility to the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    SA Edgerton; LR Roeder

    2008-09-30

    The Earth’s surface temperature is determined by the balance between incoming solar radiation and thermal (or infrared) radiation emitted by the Earth back to space. Changes in atmospheric composition, including greenhouse gases, clouds, and aerosols can alter this balance and produce significant climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tool for quantifying future climate change; however, there remain significant uncertainties in the GCM treatment of clouds, aerosol, and their effects on the Earth’s energy balance. The 2007 assessment (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports a substantial range among GCMs in climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions. The largest contributor to this range lies in how different models handle changes in the way clouds absorb or reflect radiative energy in a changing climate (Solomon et al. 2007). In 1989, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science created the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program within the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) to address scientific uncertainties related to global climate change, with a specific focus on the crucial role of clouds and their influence on the transfer of radiation in the atmosphere. To address this problem, BER has adopted a unique two-pronged approach: * The ARM Climate Research Facility (ACRF), a scientific user facility for obtaining long-term measurements of radiative fluxes, cloud and aerosol properties, and related atmospheric characteristics in diverse climate regimes. * The ARM Science Program, focused on the analysis of ACRF data to address climate science issues associated with clouds, aerosols, and radiation, and to improve GCMs. This report describes accomplishments of the BER ARM Program toward addressing the primary uncertainties related to climate change prediction as identified by the IPCC.

  3. The Arctic Climate Modeling Program: K-12 Geoscience Professional Development for Rural Educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertram, K. B.

    2009-12-01

    Helping teachers and students connect with scientists is the heart of the Arctic Climate Modeling Program (ACMP), funded from 2005-09 by the National Science Foundation’s Innovative Technology Experience for Students and Teachers. ACMP offered progressive yearlong science, technology and math (STM) professional development that prepared teachers to train youth in workforce technologies used in Arctic research. ACMP was created for the Bering Strait School District, a geographically isolated area with low standardized test scores, high dropout rates, and poverty. Scientists from around the globe have converged in this region and other areas of the Arctic to observe and measure changes in climate that are significant, accelerating, and unlike any in recorded history. Climate literacy (the ability to understand Earth system science and to make scientifically informed decisions about climate changes) has become essential for this population. Program resources were designed in collaboration with scientists to mimic the processes used to study Arctic climate. Because the Bering Strait School District serves a 98 percent Alaska Native student population, ACMP focused on best practices shown to increase the success of minority students. Significant research indicates that Alaska Native students succeed academically at higher rates when instruction addresses topics of local interest, links education to the students’ physical and cultural environment, uses local knowledge and culture in the curriculum, and incorporates hands-on, inquiry-based lessons in the classroom. A seven-partner consortium of research institutes and Alaska Native corporations created ACMP to help teachers understand their role in nurturing STM talent and motivating students to explore geoscience careers. Research underscores the importance of increasing school emphasis in content areas, such as climate, that facilitate global awareness and civic responsibility, and that foster critical thinking and

  4. Climate change, coral reef ecosystems, and management options for marine protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Brian D; Gleason, Daniel F; McLeod, Elizabeth; Woodley, Christa M; Airamé, Satie; Causey, Billy D; Friedlander, Alan M; Grober-Dunsmore, Rikki; Johnson, Johanna E; Miller, Steven L; Steneck, Robert S

    2009-12-01

    Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more "traditional" stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation.

  5. Climate Change, Coral Reef Ecosystems, and Management Options for Marine Protected Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Brian D.; Gleason, Daniel F.; McLeod, Elizabeth; Woodley, Christa M.; Airamé, Satie; Causey, Billy D.; Friedlander, Alan M.; Grober-Dunsmore, Rikki; Johnson, Johanna E.; Miller, Steven L.; Steneck, Robert S.

    2009-12-01

    Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more “traditional” stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation.

  6. Disconnects Between Audiences, Resources, and Initiatives: Key Findings of the Coastal Areas Climate Change Education Partnership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller-Karger, F. E.; Ryan, J. G.; Feldman, A.; Gilbes, F.; Trotz, M.; McKayle, C.; Stone, D.; Plank, L.; Meisels, G.; Peterson, M.; Reynolds, C. J.

    2012-12-01

    The Coastal Areas Climate Change Education (CACCE) Partnership focused on defining a plan for effective education on climate change and its salient issues in coastal communities Florida and the US Caribbean territories. The approach included assessing perceptions and needs of stakeholders, evaluating the nature of available educational and information resources, and establishing a partnership that includes the public and professional organizations most relevant in planning and in addressing the resiliency of coastal communities. Information gathering activities included surveys among K-12 educators and students on climate change perceptions and current classroom activities in both Florida and the Caribbean territories; surveys of professional urban and land-use planners across Florida regarding their understanding of related in their professional practice; and conducting an inventory of relevant educational materials and information resources. Survey results showed a range of misperceptions about climate change, its causes and its likely impacts. At present, students and teachers in high and middle schools show poor understanding of climate science, and minimal time is spent in instruction on climate change in science courses in Florida and Puerto Rico schools. Also, there has to be professional development efforts and access to rich instructional content in a continuum spanning schools and professional communities including planners (which we surveyed). Architects and engineers are communities that also need to be surveyed and included in future efforts. A major obstacle to efforts at providing continuing education for planners and municipal officials is the lack of consensus on and access to regionally-specific scientific data regarding climate impacts and the relevant instructional content. It is difficult for professionals to prepare for climate change if they cannot define impacts in the Florida-Caribbean region and its coastal urban areas. Across over 1000

  7. Urban green land cover changes and their relation to climatic variables in an anthropogenically impacted area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, Maria A.; Dida, Adrian I.

    2017-10-01

    Urban green areas are experiencing rapid land cover change caused by human-induced land degradation and extreme climatic events. Vegetation index time series provide a useful way to monitor urban vegetation phenological variations. This study quantitatively describes Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI) /Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) temporal changes for Bucharest metropolitan region land cover in Romania from the perspective of vegetation phenology and its relation with climate changes and extreme climate events. The time series from 2000 to 2016 of the NOAA AVHRR and MODIS Terra/Aqua satellite data were analyzed to extract anomalies. Time series of climatic variables were also analyzed through anomaly detection techniques and the Fourier Transform. Correlations between NDVI/EVI time series and climatic variables were computed. Temperature, rainfall and radiation were significantly correlated with almost all land-cover classes for the harmonic analysis amplitude term. However, vegetation phenology was not correlated with climatic variables for the harmonic analysis phase term suggesting a delay between climatic variations and vegetation response. Training and validation were based on a reference dataset collected from IKONOS high resolution remote sensing data. The mean detection accuracy for period 2000- 2016 was assessed to be of 87%, with a reasonable balance between change commission errors (19.3%), change omission errors (24.7%), and Kappa coefficient of 0.73. This paper demonstrates the potential of moderate - and high resolution, multispectral imagery to map and monitor the evolution of the physical urban green land cover under climate and anthropogenic pressure.

  8. Detection of the Coupling between Vegetation Leaf Area and Climate in a Multifunctional Watershed, Northwestern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Hao

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Accurate detection and quantification of vegetation dynamics and drivers of observed climatic and anthropogenic change in space and time is fundamental for our understanding of the atmosphere–biosphere interactions at local and global scales. This case study examined the coupled spatial patterns of vegetation dynamics and climatic variabilities during the past three decades in the Upper Heihe River Basin (UHRB, a complex multiple use watershed in arid northwestern China. We apply empirical orthogonal function (EOF and singular value decomposition (SVD analysis to isolate and identify the spatial patterns of satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI and their close relationship with the variability of an aridity index (AI = Precipitation/Potential Evapotranspiration. Results show that UHRB has become increasingly warm and wet during the past three decades. In general, the rise of air temperature and precipitation had a positive impact on mean LAI at the annual scale. At the monthly scale, LAI variations had a lagged response to climate. Two major coupled spatial change patterns explained 29% and 41% of the LAI dynamics during 1983–2000 and 2001–2010, respectively. The strongest connections between climate and LAI were found in the southwest part of the basin prior to 2000, but they shifted towards the north central area afterwards, suggesting that the sensitivity of LAI to climate varied over time, and that human disturbances might play an important role in altering LAI patterns. At the basin level, the positive effects of regional climate warming and precipitation increase as well as local ecological restoration efforts overwhelmed the negative effects of overgrazing. The study results offer insights about the coupled effects of climatic variability and grazing on ecosystem structure and functions at a watershed scale. Findings from this study are useful for land managers and policy makers to make better decisions in response to climate

  9. Estimation of the change in the harmfulness of selected pests in expected climate - European area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svobodova, E.; Trnka, M.; Zalud, Z.; Semeradova, D.; Dubrovsky, M.; Sefrova, H.

    2010-09-01

    CM3, NCAR-PCM, and ECHAM4) and scaled by low and high values of global temperature change. The models provide information about the possible tendency in the species development in the future climate conditions, it can point the areas endangered by the occurrence of higher number of completed generations and with likely increased economic losses. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We gratefully acknowledge the support of the FP 7 project "Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe" (CLIMSAVE) and of the research plan MSM6215648905 "Biological and technological aspects of sustainability of controlled ecosystems and their adaptability to climate change"

  10. Effects of climate change on agroclimatic indices in rainfed wheat production areas of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mehdi nassiri mahalati

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite the importance of all climatic parameters for crop growth and productivity, temperature and rainfall are more crucial compared to others and almost all climatic and agroclimatic indices are based on these two variables. Climate change will lead to variation in agroclimatic indices and evaluation of this variation is a key to study crop response to future climatic conditions. Length of growing period (LGP and rainfall deficit index could be used as indictors for assessment of potential impact of climate change of rainfed systems. To study this impact long-term weather data of main rainfed wheat production areas of Iran were collected. UKMO general circulation model was used for perdiction of climatic parameters of selected stations for years 2025 and 2050 based on pre defined scenarios of IPCC for this target years. LGP, length of dry season and rainfall deficit index were calculated from present data and the generated data for target years. The results showed that LGP based on temperature would be increased in all rainfed areas of country. However, including the water availability in the calculation was led to a lowered LGP. Reduction of LGP for the studied stations was in the range of 8-36 and 19-55 days for years 2025 and 2050, respectively. Rainfall deficit index for 2025 and 2050 was varied, respectively at 8.3-17.7 and 21.1-32.3 mm. It was estimated that under climatic condition of years 2025 and 2050 the cultivated areas in the main rainfed production regions of the country would be reduced by 16-25 and 23-33%, respectively.

  11. Small Water System Management Program: 100 K Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunacek, G.S. Jr. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States)

    1995-06-29

    Purposes of this document are: to provide an overview of the service and potable water system presently in service at the Hanford Site`s 100 K Area; to provide future system forecasts based on anticipated DOE activities and programs; to delineate performance, design, and operations criteria; and to describe planned improvements. The objective of the small water system management program is to assure the water system is properly and reliably managed and operated, and continues to exist as a functional and viable entity in accordance with WAC 246-290-410.

  12. Quality Assurance of ARM Program Climate Research Facility Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peppler, RA; Kehoe, KE; Sonntag, KL; Bahrmann, CP; Richardson, SJ; Christensen, SW; McCord, RA; Doty, DJ; Wagener, Richard [BNL; Eagan, RC; Lijegren, JC; Orr, BW; Sisterson, DL; Halter, TD; Keck, NN; Long, CN; Macduff, MC; Mather, JH; Perez, RC; Voyles, JW; Ivey, MD; Moore, ST; Nitschke, DL; Perkins, BD; Turner, DD

    2008-03-01

    This report documents key aspects of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility (ACRF) data quality assurance program as it existed in 2008. The performance of ACRF instruments, sites, and data systems is measured in terms of the availability, usability, and accessibility of the data to a user. First, the data must be available to users; that is, the data must be collected by instrument systems, processed, and delivered to a central repository in a timely manner. Second, the data must be usable; that is, the data must be inspected and deemed of sufficient quality for scientific research purposes, and data users must be able to readily tell where there are known problems in the data. Finally, the data must be accessible; that is, data users must be able to easily find, obtain, and work with the data from the central repository. The processes described in this report include instrument deployment and calibration; instrument and facility maintenance; data collection and processing infrastructure; data stream inspection and assessment; the roles of value-added data processing and field campaigns in specifying data quality and haracterizing the basic measurement; data archival, display, and distribution; data stream reprocessing; and engineering and operations management processes and procedures. Future directions in ACRF data quality assurance also are presented.

  13. Expansion of Protected Areas under Climate Change: An Example of Mountainous Tree Species in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Chih Lin

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Tree species in mountainous areas are expected to shift their distribution upward in elevation in response to climate change, calling for a potential redesign of existing protected areas. This study aims to predict whether or not the distributions of two high-mountain tree species, Abies (Abies kawakamii and Tsuga (Tsuga chinensis var. formosana, will significantly shift upward due to temperature change, and whether current protected areas will be suitable for conserving these species. Future temperature change was projected for 15 different future scenarios produced from five global climate models. Shifts in Abies and Tsuga distributions were then predicted through the use of species distribution models (SDMs which included occurrence data of Abies and Tsuga, as well as seasonal temperature, and elevation. The 25 km × 25 km downscaled General Circulation Model (GCMs data for 2020–2039 produced by the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform was adopted in this study. Habitat suitability in the study area was calculated using maximum entropy model under different climatic scenarios. A bootstrap method was applied to assess the parameter uncertainty of the maximum entropy model. In comparison to the baseline projection, we found that there are significant differences in suitable habitat distributions for Abies and Tsuga under seven of the 15 scenarios. The results suggest that mountainous ecosystems will be substantially impacted by climate change. We also found that the uncertainty originating from GCMs and the parameters of the SDM contribute most to the overall level of variability in species distributions. Finally, based on the uncertainty analysis and the shift in habitat suitability, we applied systematic conservation planning approaches to identify suitable areas to add to Taiwan’s protected area network.

  14. Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieck, Mungla; Ibisch, Pierre L; Moloney, Kirk A; Jeltsch, Florian

    2011-05-03

    Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades.Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is particularly true that

  15. Biodiversity Indicators Show Climate Change Will Alter Vegetation in Parks and Protected Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas C. Coops

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available While multifaceted, a chief aim when designating parks and protected areas is to support the preservation of biological diversity, in part, through representing and conserving the full range of landscape conditions observed throughout a representative area. Parks and protected areas are, however, typically developed using a static interpretation of current biodiversity and landscape conditions. The observed and potential climate change impacts to biodiversity have created a need to also contemplate how parks and protected areas will respond to climate change and how these areas will represent the future range of landscape conditions. To assess change in biodiversity, broad-scale ecosystem information can be sourced from indirect remotely sensed indicators. Quantifying biodiversity through indirect indicators allows characterization of inter-relationships between climate and biodiversity. Such characterizations support the assessment of possible implications of climatic change, as the indicators can be generated using modeled forecasts of future climatic conditions. In this paper we model and map impacts of climate change on British Columbia’s parks and protected areas by quantifying change in a number of remotely sensed indicators of biodiversity. These indicators are based on the measured amount of incoming solar energy used by vegetation and map the overall annual energy utilization, variability (seasonality, and latent or baseline energy. We compare current conditions represented by parks and protected areas, to those forecasted in the year 2065. Our results indicate that parks and protected areas are forecasted to become more productive and less seasonal, due to increased vegetation productivity in higher elevation environments. While increased vegetation productivity may be beneficial for biodiversity overall, these changes will be particularly problematic for sensitive and specialist species. Future gaps in vegetation conditions

  16. Regional climate models downscaling in the Alpine area with multimodel superensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Cane

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The climatic scenarios show a strong signal of warming in the Alpine area already for the mid-XXI century. The climate simulations, however, even when obtained with regional climate models (RCMs, are affected by strong errors when compared with observations, due both to their difficulties in representing the complex orography of the Alps and to limitations in their physical parametrization. Therefore, the aim of this work is to reduce these model biases by using a specific post processing statistic technique, in order to obtain a more suitable projection of climate change scenarios in the Alpine area. For our purposes we used a selection of regional climate models (RCMs runs which were developed in the framework of the ENSEMBLES project. They were carefully chosen with the aim to maximise the variety of leading global climate models and of the RCMs themselves, calculated on the SRES scenario A1B. The reference observations for the greater Alpine area were extracted from the European dataset E-OBS (produced by the ENSEMBLES project, which have an available resolution of 25 km. For the study area of Piedmont daily temperature and precipitation observations (covering the period from 1957 to the present were carefully gridded on a 14 km grid over Piedmont region through the use of an optimal interpolation technique. Hence, we applied the multimodel superensemble technique to temperature fields, reducing the high biases of RCMs temperature field compared to observations in the control period. We also proposed the application of a brand new probabilistic multimodel superensemble dressing technique, already applied to weather forecast models successfully, to RCMS: the aim was to estimate precipitation fields, with careful description of precipitation probability density functions conditioned to the model outputs. This technique allowed for reducing the strong precipitation overestimation, arising from the use of RCMs, over the Alpine chain and to

  17. Dynamics in Protected Areas and Domesticated Landscapes Caused by Climate Change and Anthropogenic Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartter, J.; Ryan, S.; Stampone, M.; Chapman, C.

    2009-12-01

    Climate change, a key factor of concern for conservation, has important biological and social implications. Africa’s Albertine Rift is an area of extremely high endemic biodiversity and is classed as a world conservation priority. However, natural areas are represented by a chain of protected forest areas in a matrix of intensive smallholder agriculture and dense human settlements. Kibale National Park in western Uganda has become an island of forest surrounded by intensive small-scale agriculture and is the only remaining large area of mid-altitude forest remaining in Albertine Rift Region and East Africa. Increased temperature and precipitation over recent decades has been observed by scientists and local farmers, however, to date, rigorous analysis of local climate data and the impact of climate change on local resources does not exist. Moreover, local farmers report that some crops die or ripen too early because of increased precipitation. Conservation biologists and park managers are concerned that changes in tree phenology and primary productivity will alter wildlife feeding preferences and ranges leading to more human-wildlife conflict. Understanding the impact of local and regional climate change and variation within the social, conservation, and geographic context is necessary to construct informed management plans and to maintain positive park-people relationships. This paper describes our first attempt to fully integrate multiple temporal and spatial datasets, and our progress in developing an interdisciplinary framework to study social and ecological relationships in the Kibale landscape. We examine historical in situ climate data and proxy climate information derived from remotely sensed satellite-borne imagery in our preliminary analyses. Our goal is to link these data with both pre-existing imagery analyses and tree community composition and phenology data from 39 years of ongoing research to identify the pattern, trajectory, and drivers of local

  18. Effects of Climate Change on Range Forage Production in the San Francisco Bay Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; George, Melvin R.

    2013-01-01

    The San Francisco Bay Area in California, USA is a highly heterogeneous region in climate, topography, and habitats, as well as in its political and economic interests. Successful conservation strategies must consider various current and future competing demands for the land, and should pay special attention to livestock grazing, the dominant non-urban land-use. The main objective of this study was to predict changes in rangeland forage production in response to changes in temperature and precipitation projected by downscaled output from global climate models. Daily temperature and precipitation data generated by four climate models were used as input variables for an existing rangeland forage production model (linear regression) for California’s annual rangelands and projected on 244 12 km x 12 km grid cells for eight Bay Area counties. Climate model projections suggest that forage production in Bay Area rangelands may be enhanced by future conditions in most years, at least in terms of peak standing crop. However, the timing of production is as important as its peak, and altered precipitation patterns could mean delayed germination, resulting in shorter growing seasons and longer periods of inadequate forage quality. An increase in the frequency of extremely dry years also increases the uncertainty of forage availability. These shifts in forage production will affect the economic viability and conservation strategies for rangelands in the San Francisco Bay Area. PMID:23472102

  19. Regional relationships between climate and wildfire-burned area in the interior West, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandon M. Collins; Philip N. Omi; Phillip L. Chapman

    2006-01-01

    Recent studies have linked the Atlantic Multtidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with drought occurrence in the interior United States. This study evaluates the influence of AM0 and PDO phases on interannual relationships between climate and wildfire-burned area during the 20th century. Palmer's Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is...

  20. Baseline climatic and hydrologic relationships for the high ridge evaluation area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. B. Fowler; J. D. Helvey; C. Johnson

    1980-01-01

    This report summarizes the climatic and hydrologic measurements taken in the High Ridge evaluation area, a four-watershed complex within the Umatilla barometer watershed of eastern Oregon. The information—measurements of water yield; air, soil, and water temperatures; snow depth and density; and wind—is presented to identify the pretreatment condition...

  1. Climate change impact on fire probability and severity in Mediterranean areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachisio Arca; Grazia Pellizzaro; Pierpaolo Duce; Michele Salis; Valentina Bacciu; Donatella Spano; Alan Ager; Mark Finney

    2010-01-01

    Fire is one of the most significant threats for the Mediterranean forested areas. Global change may increase the wildland fire risk due to the combined effect of air temperature and humidity on fuel status, and the effect of wind speed on fire behaviour. This paper investigated the potential effect of the climate changes predicted for the Mediterranean basin by a...

  2. Towards a New Policy for Climate Adaptive Water Management in Flanders: The Concept of Signal Areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de smedt, P.G.A.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has a significant impact on the hydrological cycle and consequently on the future use of space. Flanders, like the Netherlands, is a low-lying area, and is therefore more vulnerable to changes in sea level, river discharge and rainfall. Furthermore, the so-called ‘Flemish Rhomb’,

  3. Effects of climate change on range forage production in the San Francisco Bay Area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer

    Full Text Available The San Francisco Bay Area in California, USA is a highly heterogeneous region in climate, topography, and habitats, as well as in its political and economic interests. Successful conservation strategies must consider various current and future competing demands for the land, and should pay special attention to livestock grazing, the dominant non-urban land-use. The main objective of this study was to predict changes in rangeland forage production in response to changes in temperature and precipitation projected by downscaled output from global climate models. Daily temperature and precipitation data generated by four climate models were used as input variables for an existing rangeland forage production model (linear regression for California's annual rangelands and projected on 244 12 km x 12 km grid cells for eight Bay Area counties. Climate model projections suggest that forage production in Bay Area rangelands may be enhanced by future conditions in most years, at least in terms of peak standing crop. However, the timing of production is as important as its peak, and altered precipitation patterns could mean delayed germination, resulting in shorter growing seasons and longer periods of inadequate forage quality. An increase in the frequency of extremely dry years also increases the uncertainty of forage availability. These shifts in forage production will affect the economic viability and conservation strategies for rangelands in the San Francisco Bay Area.

  4. Expansion of the dengue transmission area in Brazil: the role of climate and cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barcellos, Christovam; Lowe, Rachel

    2014-02-01

    To examine the spatial and temporal patterns of the recent expansion of dengue transmission area in Brazil (2001-2012) with the aim to identify pathways and constraints to dengue diffusion. Synthetic indicators were calculated to characterise timing (year of first dengue outbreak), permanence (number of years with dengue outbreaks) and intensity (outbreak occurrence). The indicators were used to map dengue diffusion and compare cities within different climatic zones, with varying population densities. Currently, a large portion of the country comprises a dengue transmission area, but cities situated in the mesothermal zone, in the south, and remote areas, in the north, are relatively exempt. Diffusion waves are spread from metropolitan areas towards medium and small cities generating outbreaks in their influence region. However, long-term permanence of transmission depends on the existence of a favourable climate, abundant population and connectivity. Large and warm cities sustain and spread dengue viruses, for which specific dengue control measures must be developed. The concentration of outbreaks along climate transition fringes indicates a boundary between two transmission regimes and raises awareness to the effects of ongoing climatic and socio-economic changes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Effects of climate change on range forage production in the San Francisco Bay Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; George, Melvin R

    2013-01-01

    The San Francisco Bay Area in California, USA is a highly heterogeneous region in climate, topography, and habitats, as well as in its political and economic interests. Successful conservation strategies must consider various current and future competing demands for the land, and should pay special attention to livestock grazing, the dominant non-urban land-use. The main objective of this study was to predict changes in rangeland forage production in response to changes in temperature and precipitation projected by downscaled output from global climate models. Daily temperature and precipitation data generated by four climate models were used as input variables for an existing rangeland forage production model (linear regression) for California's annual rangelands and projected on 244 12 km x 12 km grid cells for eight Bay Area counties. Climate model projections suggest that forage production in Bay Area rangelands may be enhanced by future conditions in most years, at least in terms of peak standing crop. However, the timing of production is as important as its peak, and altered precipitation patterns could mean delayed germination, resulting in shorter growing seasons and longer periods of inadequate forage quality. An increase in the frequency of extremely dry years also increases the uncertainty of forage availability. These shifts in forage production will affect the economic viability and conservation strategies for rangelands in the San Francisco Bay Area.

  6. Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Projected mortality from climate change-driven impacts on extremely hot and cold days increases significantly over the 21st century in a large group of United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Increases in projected mortality from more hot days are greater than decreases in ...

  7. New climate-proof cropping systems in dry areas of the Mediterranean region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Sven-Erik

    2014-01-01

    FP7 project entitled 'Sustainable water use securing food production in dry areas of the Mediterranean region (SWUP-MED)' working on climate-proof cropping systems in Morocco, Syria, Turkey and southern Europe, collaborating with UK, Denmark and Australia. The results are valid for other parts...

  8. Active management of protected areas enhances metapopulation expansion under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lawson, C.R.; Bennie, J.J.; Thomas, C.D.; Hodgson, J.A.; Wilson, R.J.

    2014-01-01

    There is a need to adapt biodiversity conservation to climate change, but few empirical studies are available to guide decision-making. Existing networks of protected areas (PAs) have been preferentially colonized during species’ range expansions, but this could be due to their original habitat

  9. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of Phase I Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mearns, L. O.; Arritt, R.; Biner, S.; Bukovsky, Melissa; McGinnis, Seth; Sain, Steve; Caya, Daniel; Correia Jr., James; Flory, Dave; Gutowski, William; Takle, Gene; Jones, Richard; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; McDaniel, Larry; Nunes, A.; Qian, Yun; Roads, J.; Sloan, Lisa; Snyder, Mark A.

    2012-09-20

    The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program is an international effort designed to systematically investigate the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and produce high resolution climate change scenarios using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) nested within atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with the A2 SRES scenario, with a common domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The program also includes an evaluation component (Phase I) wherein the participating RCMs are nested within 25 years of NCEP/DOE global reanalysis II. The grid spacing of the RCM simulations is 50 km.

  10. The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program, Climate Services, and Meeting the National Climate Change Adaptation Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B.; Miles, E.; Dow, K.; Anderson, C.; Cayan, D.; Dettinger, M.; Hartmann, H.; Jones, J.; Mote, P.; Ray, A.; Shafer, M.; White, D.

    2008-12-01

    The NOAA-led RISA Program has grown steadily to nine regions and a focus that includes both natural climate variability and human-driven climate change. The RISAs are, at their core, university-based and heavily invested in partnerships, particularly with stakeholders, NOAA, and other federal agencies. RISA research, assessment and partnerships have led to new operational climate services within NOAA and other agencies, and have become important foundations in the development of local, state and regional climate change adaptation initiatives. The RISA experience indicates that a national climate service is needed, and must include: (1) services prioritized based on stakeholder needs; (2) sustained, ongoing regional interactions with users, (3) a commitment to improve climate literacy; (4) support for assessment as an ongoing, iterative process; (5) full recognition that stakeholder decisions are seldom made using climate information alone; (6) strong interagency partnership; (7) national implementation and regional in focus; (8) capability spanning local, state, tribal, regional, national and international space scales, and weeks to millennia time scales; and (9) institutional design and scientific support flexible enough to assure the effort is nimble enough to respond to rapidly-changing stakeholder needs. The RISA experience also highlights the central role that universities must play in national climate change adaptation programs. Universities have a tradition of trusted regional stakeholder partnerships, as well as the interdisciplinary expertise - including social science, ecosystem science, law, and economics - required to meet stakeholder climate-related needs; project workforce can also shift rapidly in universities. Universities have a proven ability to build and sustain interagency partnerships. Universities excel in most forms of education and training. And universities often have proven entrepreneurship, technology transfer and private sector

  11. Carbon Dioxide Effects Research and Assessment Program: Proceedings of the carbon dioxide and climate research program conference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmitt, L E [ed.

    1980-12-01

    Papers presented at the Carbon Dioxide and Climate Research Program Conference are included in this volume. Topics discussed are: the carbon cycle; modeling the carbon system; climatic response due to increased CO2; climate modeling; the use of paleoclimatic data in understanding climate change; attitudes and implications of CO2; social responses to the CO2 problem; a scenario for atmospheric CO2 to 2025; marine photosynthesis and the global carbon cycle; and the role of tropical forests in the carbon balance of the world. Separate abstracts of nine papers have been prepared for inclusion in the Energy Data Base. (RJC)

  12. Ecological strategies in california chaparral: Interacting effects of soils, climate, and fire on specific leaf area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anacker, Brian; Rajakaruna, Nishanta; Ackerly, David; Harrison, Susan; Keeley, Jon E.; Vasey, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Background: High values of specific leaf area (SLA) are generally associated with high maximal growth rates in resource-rich conditions, such as mesic climates and fertile soils. However, fire may complicate this relationship since its frequency varies with both climate and soil fertility, and fire frequency selects for regeneration strategies (resprouting versus seeding) that are not independent of resource-acquisition strategies. Shared ancestry is also expected to affect the distribution of resource-use and regeneration traits.Aims: We examined climate, soil, and fire as drivers of community-level variation in a key functional trait, SLA, in chaparral in California.Methods: We quantified the phylogenetic, functional, and environmental non-independence of key traits for 87 species in 115 plots.Results: Among species, SLA was higher in resprouters than seeders, although not after phylogeny correction. Among communities, mean SLA was lower in harsh interior climates, but in these climates it was higher on more fertile soils and on more recently burned sites; in mesic coastal climates, mean SLA was uniformly high despite variation in soil fertility and fire history.Conclusions: We conclude that because important correlations exist among both species traits and environmental filters, interpreting the functional and phylogenetic structure of communities may require an understanding of complex interactive effects.

  13. Modelling plant invasion pathways in protected areas under climate change: implication for invasion management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-J. Wang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change may enable invasive plant species (IPS to invade protected areas (PAs, but plant invasion on a global scale has not yet been explicitly addressed. Here, we mapped the potential invasion pathways for IPS in PAs across the globe and explored potential factors determining the pathways of plant invasion under climate change. We used species distribution modelling to estimate the suitable habitats of 386 IPS and applied a corridor analysis to compute the potential pathways of IPS in PAs under climate change. Subsequently, we analysed the potential factors affecting the pathways in PAs. According to our results, the main potential pathways of IPS in PAs are in Europe, eastern Australia, New Zealand, southern Africa, and eastern regions of South America and are strongly influenced by changes in temperature and precipitation. Protected areas can play an important role in preventing and controlling the spread of IPS under climate change. This is due to the fact that measures are taken to monitor climate change in detail, to provide effective management near or inside PAs, and to control the introduction of IPS with a high capacity for natural dispersal. A review of conservation policies in PAs is urgently needed.

  14. Tool kit development to refine and visualize essential climate data and information for marine protected areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecil, L.; Stachniewicz, J.; Shein, K. A.; Ansari, S.; Jarvis, C.

    2013-05-01

    Marine ecosystem responses to climate variability and change such as changing water temperature, water chemistry (e.g., pH, salinity), water level, or storminess may result in adverse impacts including mass mortality, loss of habitat, increased disease susceptibility, and trophic cascade feedbacks. Unfortunately, while marine ecosystem resource managers are aware of these threats, they often lack sufficient expertise with identifying, accessing and using the many large and complex climate data products that would inform ecosystem-scale climate impact assessments. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has been working with the Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary Ocean Climate Center to enhance and expand the functionality of NCDC's Weather and Climate Toolkit (WCT) to begin to address this limitation. The WCT is a freely available, Java-based user interface (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/wct/) designed to access, analyze, and display a variety of NCDC's georeferenced climate data products (e.g., satellite data, radar, reanalysis datasets, in-situ observations). However, the WCT requires the user to have already identified a data set of interest and gained access to it. This can limit its utility by users who are not knowledgeable about which data sets are relevant to their needs and where those data sets can be found. The Integrated Marine Protected Area Climate Tools (IMPACT) prototype modification to the WCT addresses those requirements through an iterative process between climate scientists and resource managers. The WCT-IMPACT prototype couples a user query approach with a quasi-expert system that determines, retrieves, and loads the appropriate data products for visualization and analysis by the user. Relevant data products are identified based on the environmental variables in which ecosystem managers have indicated an importance to their ecosystems. To improve response time, the user, through the WCT-IMPACT interface, crops (or subsets) the

  15. Climate Risk assessment and management in rainfed agriculture areas in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khresat, Saeb

    2017-04-01

    Agricultural production is closely tied to climate, making agriculture one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. Figures and data from official resources and previous studies demonstrated that most of agricultural areas in Jordan were rainfed which made agriculture in the country more susceptible to climate change. The percentage of harvested to cultivated areas in those areas over the past ten years ranged from 45-55%, indicating a high risk associated with rainfed agriculture in Jordan. The anticipated increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation would adversely affect crops and water availability, critically influencing the patterns of future agricultural production, threatens livelihoods and keeps vulnerable people insecure. The anticipated increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation would result in 15-20% yield reduction for major field crops and vegetable crops by 2050 and 2070. This study was conducted to help in formulating action plans to adapt to climate change by assessing the risk from climate change on rainfed agriculture. The scenarios of climate change were used to assess the impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture. The overall risk level was based on possible land use shifts and crop yield under the most probable climate change scenarios. Accordingly, adaptive measures were proposed to reduce the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Jordan. The adaptation measures included the improvement of soil water storage to maximize plant water availability, the management of crop residue and tillage to conserve soil and water, the selection of drought-tolerant crop varieties, the expansion of water harvesting schemes through encouraging the farmers to adopt and apply the in-situ water harvesting systems (micro-catchment). Finally, the study emphasized the need for capacity building and awareness creation at the levels of farmers and extension staff. This would require the formulation of plans and strategies

  16. Climate change and socio-economic scenarios, land use modelling implications on water resources in an inner alpine area, Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, Emmanuel; Schneider, Flurina; Liniger, Hanspeter; Weingartner, Rolf; Herweg, Karl

    2014-05-01

    The MontanAqua project aims to study the water resources management in the region Sierre-Montana (Valais, Switzerland). Land use is known to have an influence on the water resources (soil moisture dynamic, soil sealing, surface runoff and deep percolation). Thus land use modelling is of importance for the water resources management. An actual land use map was produced using infrared imagery (Niklaus 2012, Fig.1). Land use changes are known to be mainly drived by socio-economic factors as well as climatic factors (Dolman et al. 2003). Potential future Land uses was separatly predicted according to 1-. socio-economic and 2-. climatic/abiotic drivers : 1. 4 socio-economic scenarios were developped with stakeholders (Schneider et al. 2013) between 2010 and 2012. We modeled those socio-economic scenarios into a GIS application using Python programming (ModelBuilder in ArcGIS 10) to get a cartographic transcription of the wishes of the stakeholders for their region in 2050. 2. Uncorrelated climatic and abiotic drivers were used in a BIOMOD2 (Georges et al. 2013) framework. 4 models were used: Maximum Entropy (MAXENT), Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) and the Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA) to predict grassland, alpine pasture, vineyards and forest in our study region. Climatic scenarios were then introduced into the models to predict potential land use in 2050 driven only by climatic and abiotic factors The comparison of all the outputs demonstrates that the socio-economic drivers will have a more important impact in the region than the climatic drivers (e.g. -70% grassland surface for the worst socio-economic scenario vs. -40% of grassland surface for the worst climatic models). Further analysis also brings out the sensitivity of the grassland/alpine pasture system to the climate change and to socio-economic changes. Future work will be to cross the different land use maps obtained by the two model types and to use

  17. Variable area radial turbine fabrication and test program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogo, C.

    1986-01-01

    A variable area radial turbine with a moveable nozzle sidewall was experimentally evaluated. The turbine was designed for an advanced variable capacity gas turbine rotorcraft engine. The turbine has a mass flow rate of 2.27 kg/sec (5.0 lbs/sec), and a rotor inlet temperature of 1477K (2200 F). Testing was conducted at a reduced inlet temperature, but the aerodynamic parameters and Reynolds numbers were duplicated. Overall performance was obtained for a range of nozzle areas from 50% to 100% of the maximum area. The test program determined the effect on performance of: (1) Moving the hub or shroud sidewall; (2) Sidewall-vane clearance leakage; (3) Vaneless space geometry change; and (4) Nozzle cooling flows. Data were obtained for a range of pressure ratios and speeds and are presented in a number of performance maps.

  18. Climate Change and its Impacts on Tourism and Livelihood in Manaslu Conservation Area, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    K C, A.

    2016-12-01

    The Hindukush Himalayan region including Nepal, a country reliant on tourism, is particularly sensitive to climate change. However, there are considerable gaps in research regarding tourism, livelihood and climate change in Nepal. The present research assesses the impact of climate change on tourism and livelihood in the Manaslu Conservation Area (MCA) of Nepal. Seventy-six households were interviewed followed by three focus group discussions and five key informant interviews. The empirical data collected at the site are complemented by secondary scientific data on climate and tourism. Correlation, regression, descriptive and graphical analysis was carried out for the presentation and analysis of data. Local people perceived that temperature and rainfall have been increasing in the study site as a result of climate change. It was also verified by the observed scientific data of temperature and precipitation. Socioeconomic variables such as marital status, size of household, education and landholding status had positive effect on tourism participation while livestock-holding status and occupation of the household had negative effect on tourism participation. Number of visitors is increasing in MCA in recent years, and tourism participation is helping local people to earn more money and improve their living standard. Till the date, there is positive impact of climate change on tourism sector in the study area. But, unfavorable weather change phenomena, intense rainfall and snowfall, melting of snow, occurrence of hydrological and climatic hazards and increase in temperature may have adverse impact on the tourism and livelihood in the mountainous area. Such type of adverse impact of climate change and tourism is already experienced in the case of Annapurna region and Mt. Everest region as tourist were trapped and affected by unfavorable weather change phenomena. In response to gradually warming temperature and decreasing snowfall, there seems an urgent need for

  19. Heat-stress increase under climate change twice as large in cities as in rural areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wouters, Hendrik; De Ridder, Koen; Poelmans, Lien; Willems, Patrick; Brouwers, Johan; Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa; Tabari, Hossein; Vanden Broucke, Sam; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Demuzere, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    Urban areas, being warmer than their surroundings, are particularly vulnerable to global warming and associated increases in extreme temperatures. Yet ensemble climate-model projections are generally performed on a scale that is too coarse to represent the evolution of temperatures in cities. Here, for the first time, we combine a 35-year convection-permitting climate model integrations with information from an ensemble of general circulation models to assess heat stress in a typical densely populated mid-latitude maritime region. We show that the heat-stress increase for the mid-21st century is twice as large in cities compared to their surrounding rural areas. The exacerbation is driven by the urban heat island itself, its concurrence with heatwaves, and urban expansion. Cities experience a heat-stress multiplication by a factor 1.4 and 15 depending on the scenario. Remarkably, the future heat-stress surpasses everywhere the urban hot spots of today. Our novel insights exemplify the need to combine information from climate models, acting on different scales, for climate-change risk assessment in heterogeneous regions. Moreover, these results highlight the necessity for adaptation to increasing heat stress, especially in urban areas.

  20. Biodiversity Areas under Threat: Overlap of Climate Change and Population Pressures on the World's Biodiversity Priorities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliann E Aukema

    Full Text Available Humans and the ecosystem services they depend on are threatened by climate change. Places with high or growing human population as well as increasing climate variability, have a reduced ability to provide ecosystem services just as the need for these services is most critical. A spiral of vulnerability and ecosystem degradation often ensues in such places. We apply different global conservation schemes as proxies to examine the spatial relation between wet season precipitation, population change over three decades, and natural resource conservation. We pose two research questions: 1 Where are biodiversity and ecosystem services vulnerable to the combined effects of climate change and population growth? 2 Where are human populations vulnerable to degraded ecosystem services? Results suggest that globally only about 20% of the area between 50 degrees latitude North and South has experienced significant change-largely wetting-in wet season precipitation. Approximately 40% of rangelands and 30% of rainfed agriculture lands have experienced significant precipitation changes, with important implications for food security. Over recent decades a number of critical conservation areas experienced high population growth concurrent with significant wetting or drying (e.g. the Horn of Africa, Himalaya, Western Ghats, and Sri Lanka, posing challenges not only for human adaptation but also to the protection and sustenance of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying areas of climate and population risk and their overlap with conservation priorities can help to target activities and resources that promote biodiversity and ecosystem services while improving human well-being.

  1. Biodiversity Areas under Threat: Overlap of Climate Change and Population Pressures on the World's Biodiversity Priorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aukema, Juliann E; Pricope, Narcisa G; Husak, Gregory J; Lopez-Carr, David

    2017-01-01

    Humans and the ecosystem services they depend on are threatened by climate change. Places with high or growing human population as well as increasing climate variability, have a reduced ability to provide ecosystem services just as the need for these services is most critical. A spiral of vulnerability and ecosystem degradation often ensues in such places. We apply different global conservation schemes as proxies to examine the spatial relation between wet season precipitation, population change over three decades, and natural resource conservation. We pose two research questions: 1) Where are biodiversity and ecosystem services vulnerable to the combined effects of climate change and population growth? 2) Where are human populations vulnerable to degraded ecosystem services? Results suggest that globally only about 20% of the area between 50 degrees latitude North and South has experienced significant change-largely wetting-in wet season precipitation. Approximately 40% of rangelands and 30% of rainfed agriculture lands have experienced significant precipitation changes, with important implications for food security. Over recent decades a number of critical conservation areas experienced high population growth concurrent with significant wetting or drying (e.g. the Horn of Africa, Himalaya, Western Ghats, and Sri Lanka), posing challenges not only for human adaptation but also to the protection and sustenance of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying areas of climate and population risk and their overlap with conservation priorities can help to target activities and resources that promote biodiversity and ecosystem services while improving human well-being.

  2. Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hole, David G; Willis, Stephen G; Pain, Deborah J

    2009-01-01

    Despite widespread concern, the continuing effectiveness of networks of protected areas under projected 21st century climate change is uncertain. Shifts in species' distributions could mean these resources will cease to afford protection to those species for which they were originally established......, despite the likelihood of significant community disruption, we demonstrate that rigorously defined networks of protected areas can play a key role in mitigating the worst impacts of climate change on biodiversity........ Using modelled projected shifts in the distributions of sub-Saharan Africa's entire breeding avifauna, we show that species turnover across the continent's Important Bird Area (IBA) network is likely to vary regionally and will be substantial at many sites (> 50% at 42% of IBAs by 2085 for priority...

  3. Geophysical mapping of the subsurface to support climate adaption in development areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Theis Raaschou

    During the last decades there has been an increasing urbanization in many counties. It is estimated that in 2050 two-third of the world’s population lives in urban areas. The continuous growth of cities in combination with future climate changes present authorities with great challenges. Horsens...... municipality, Denmark are currently implementing climate change adaptation (CCA) plans for development areas. A key aspect of Horsens CCA plans is that development areas must handle surface water locally using various types of sustainable drainage systems (SUDS). However, at present time the knowledge about...... ha is high-densely mapped with multi-configuration Ground Conductivity Meter (DualEM421) and supplemented with Airborne Electro Magnetic surveys, Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and boreholes. The depth of investigation for the DUALEM421 system is between 5 to 8 m and the horizontal...

  4. Towards a New Policy for Climate Adaptive Water Management in Flanders: The Concept of Signal Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter De Smedt

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In Flanders, the Government has recently established an innovative policy framework to preserve the water storage capacity in flood-prone areas. In this context, the concept of ‘Signal Areas’ (signaalgebieden has been created. These areas are still undeveloped areas with a hard planning destination (residential and industrial areas located in flood-prone areas. The framework outlines in what way one needs to deal with the flood risk in these areas. The intention is to work with tailor-made solutions for each separate area. For this purpose, a comprehensive tool-box is available, such as land reparcelling, spatial destination or zoning swapping (bestemmingsruil, regulations regarding appropriate construction methods and land use in urban planning regulations or in public utility servitudes, and the application of a sharpened Water Test. The final objective is to create an efficacious, area-oriented adaptation strategy for climate-proof spatial planning. In this contribution, the author will provide an insight into the legal design of the above-mentioned concepts and instruments, how they can contribute to a stronger linkage between water management and spatial planning and therefore to a solid climate change adaptation strategy, as well as the factors of success and failure of this new policy framework.

  5. Comparing Reactive Surface Area of Sediments in Hot and Cold Arid Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funderburg, R.; Elwood Madden, M.; Joo, Y. J.; Marra, K. R.; Soreghan, G. S.; Hall, B. L.

    2014-12-01

    The reactive surface area of primary silicate phases in sediment is an important determinant in weathering rates and fluxes in the critical zone. Weathering rates in warm climates are presumed to be faster than rates in cold climates, but glacial stream systems have chemical fluxes similar to temperate climates due to the production of highly reactive fresh mineral surfaces. To assess climate as a controller on weathering rates by comparing reactive surface area in cold arid and hot arid systems, samples were collected at the base of Denton Glacier, Wright Valley, Antarctica, and in the Anza Borrego Desert, California. Sediments were wet sieved and treated to remove carbonates and organics. Mud and very fine fractions were freeze dried. Surface areas of each size fraction were determined using the BET method. Sediment reactivity was measured through batch dissolution experiments in water buffered to pH 8.4. Samples were removed and filtered at predetermined time intervals, then refrigerated prior to ICP-OES analysis. Antarctic glacial sediment released an order of magnitude or more cations to solution compared to alluvial sediments from the Anza Borrego Desert. The Anza Borrego sand fraction was more reactive than the mud for Ca, P, Mn, and Si, while the Antarctic mud was more reactive than the sand for all cations. The high reactivity of the glacial mud can be attributed to the high reactive surface area (10.42 m2/g) created by physical crushing. In addition, the cation exchange capacity of the mud fraction was reached more quickly in the Antarctica samples, while Anza Borrego muds produced more complicated weathering fluxes, likely due to their higher clay mineral component. These results emphasize a strong climate control and the importance of physical weathering mechanisms on the chemical weathering fluxes over geologic time scales.

  6. Air Pollutants, Climate, and the Prevalence of Pediatric Asthma in Urban Areas of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Juanjuan; Dai, Jihong; Yan, Li; Fu, Wenlong; Yi, Jing; Chen, Yuzhi; Liu, Chuanhe; Xu, Dongqun; Wang, Qiang

    2016-01-01

    Background. Prevalence of childhood asthma varies significantly among regions, while its reasons are not clear yet with only a few studies reporting relevant causes for this variation. Objective. To investigate the potential role of city-average levels of air pollutants and climatic factors in order to distinguish differences in asthma prevalence in China and explain their reasons. Methods. Data pertaining to 10,777 asthmatic patients were obtained from the third nationwide survey of childhood asthma in China's urban areas. Annual mean concentrations of air pollutants and other climatic factors were obtained for the same period from several government departments. Data analysis was implemented with descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficient, and multiple regression analysis. Results. Pearson correlation analysis showed that the situation of childhood asthma was strongly linked with SO2, relative humidity, and hours of sunshine (p climate, at least in terms of children, plays a major role in explaining regional differences in asthma prevalence in China.

  7. Adaptive Effectiveness of Irrigated Area Expansion in Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Northern China

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tianyi Zhang; Jinxia Wang; Yishu Teng

    2017-01-01

    .... Here, we assess the effects of irrigated area expansion on crop yields based on county-level data during 1980-2011 in northern China and estimate climate impacts under irrigated area scenarios in the 2030s...

  8. Evaluation of soil contamination risk under climate change scenarios using Pantanal model in a Mediterranean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotb Abd-Elmabod, Sameh; Anaya-Romero, María; Jordán, Antonio; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; de la Rosa, Diego

    2013-04-01

    In this research, contamination vulnerability of Mediterranean soils was evaluated, using Andalusia (southern Spain; 87,600 km2) as a pilot area. The following components of the agro-ecological decision support system MicroLEIS DSS have been used: 1) SDBm, soil profile database, 2) CDBm, agroclimate database 3) MDBm, database of agricultural management, and 4) Pantanal model, specific assessment model for the vulnerability of soil contamination focus on nitrogen, phosphorous, heavy metals and pesticides. After the application of the model, results may be grouped into five vulnerability classes: V1-none, V2-low, V3-moderate, V4-high and V5-extreme for each specific contaminant. Physical and chemical data, and morphological description of 62 selected soil profiles from the study area were used in this study. Soil profiles were classified at sub-group level of USDA Soil Taxonomy, resulting in 37 units included in orders Inceptisols (26,9%), Entisols (21.2%), Alfisols (19.8%), Vertisols (17.9%), Mollisols (7.2%), Ultisols (4.3%) and Aridisols (2.8%). The CDBm database contains monthly average values of climate variables: mean temperature, maximum and minimum monthly rainfall, number of days of rain and humidity, collected during a consecutive period of 30 years that represent current climate scenario, and future climate scenarios (2040, 2070 and 2100). These scenarios have been calculated using climate change variation values from the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET, 2011). The MDBm contains information about agricultural use and management of wheat crop. The Pantanal expert model was applied to each soil-unit. Results showed that 9.0%, 11.6%, 29.5% and 50.8% of the total studied area was classified as V1, V2, V3, and V4, respectively, for pesticide contamination under the current climatic scenario. Under the future climate change scenario, 7.7%, 10.0%, 17.7% and 64.6% of the total studied area was classified as V1, V2, V3 and V4, respectively, for pesticide

  9. Saving Grace - A Climate Change Documentary Education Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S.; Graham, J.; Little, L.; Hoggan, J. C.

    2012-12-01

    Saving Grace conveys climate change knowledge from the best international scientists and social scientists using a series of new media formats. An Education and Communication Plan (ECP) has been developed to disseminate climate change knowledge on impacts, mitigation and adaptation for individuals, and for all sectors of society. The research team is seeking contacts with science and social science colleagues around the world to provide the knowledge base for the ECP. Poverty enslaves…and climate change has, and will, spread and deepen poverty to hundreds of millions of people, primarily in the developing world. And make no mistake; we are enslaving hundreds of millions of people in a depressing and debilitating poverty that in numbers will far surpass the horrors of the slave trade of past centuries. Saving Grace is the story of that poverty - and minimizing that poverty. Saving Grace stars the best of the world's climate researchers. Saving Grace presents the science; who, where and why of greenhouse gases that drive climate change; current and projected impacts of a changing climate around the world; and most important, solutions to the climate change challenges we face.

  10. Mesoscale modelling of the summer climate response of Moscow metropolitan area to urban expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varentsov, M. I.; Konstantinov, P. I.; Samsonov, T. E.

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, the experience of applying a regional climate model to simulating the summer climate features of Moscow metropolitan area is examined. Also, an assessment is made of climate response to the implementation of a scenario of twofold city expansion. The model (COSMO-CLM) was adapted to the conditions of the region under investigation, supplemented by specific urban canopy parameterization and equipped with realistic parameters of urban surface. It was possible to successfully simulate the summer meteorological regime of Moscow region and, specifically, the temporal and spatial variability of the Moscow urban heat island (UHI). First results of the simulation for the city expansion show that the new urbanized areas on the periphery of Moscow have a heating impact on its central part, which leads to an increase of the UHI effect, on the average, of 10% (in the central area). In extreme heat events the temperature response to this scenario is much stronger, which may deteriorate human health and increase thermal stress. The simulation results also show that the city of Moscow is characterized by a positive anomaly of summer precipitation (in the city and its leeward side it increases by 10-30%). The scenario of urban expansion enhances this anomaly by 5-10% and increases its area.

  11. Impact of regional afforestation on climatic conditions in metropolitan areas: case study of Copenhagen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stysiak, Aleksander Andrzej; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Mahura, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Like most other places, European metropolitan areas will face a range of climate-related challenges over the next decades that may influence the nature of urban life across the continent. Under future urbanization and climate change scenarios the well-being and comfort of the urban population might become progressively compromised. In urban areas, the effects of the warming climate will be accelerated by combination of Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) and extreme heat waves. The land cover composition directly influences atmospheric variability, and can either escalate or downscale the projected changes. Vegetation, forest ecosystems in particular, are anticipated to play an important role in modulating local and regional climatic conditions, and to be vital factor in the process of adapting cities to warming climate. This study investigates the impact of forest and land-cover change on formation and development of temperature regimes in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area (CPH-MA). Potential to modify the UHI effect in CPH-MA is estimated. Using 2009 meteorological data, and up-to-date 2012 high resolution land-cover data we employed the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) modeling system to simulate air temperature (at 2 meter height) fields for a selected period in July 2009. Employing research tools (such as METGRAF meteorological software and Geographical Information Systems) we then estimated the influence of different afforestation and urbanization scenarios with new forests being located after the Danish national afforestation plan, after proximity to the city center, after dominating wind characteristics, and urbanization taking place as densification of the existing conurbation. This study showed the difference in temperature up to 3.25°C, and the decrease in the spatial extent of temperature fields up to 68%, depending on the selected scenario. Performed simulations demonstrated

  12. Climate Change and Conservation Planning in California: The San Francisco Bay Area Upland Habitat Goals Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branciforte, R.; Weiss, S. B.; Schaefer, N.

    2008-12-01

    Climate change threatens California's vast and unique biodiversity. The Bay Area Upland Habitat Goals is a comprehensive regional biodiversity assessment of the 9 counties surrounding San Francisco Bay, and is designing conservation land networks that will serve to protect, manage, and restore that biodiversity. Conservation goals for vegetation, rare plants, mammals, birds, fish, amphibians, reptiles, and invertebrates are set, and those goals are met using the optimization algorithm MARXAN. Climate change issues are being considered in the assessment and network design in several ways. The high spatial variability at mesoclimatic and topoclimatic scales in California creates high local biodiversity, and provides some degree of local resiliency to macroclimatic change. Mesoclimatic variability from 800 m scale PRISM climatic norms is used to assess "mesoclimate spaces" in distinct mountain ranges, so that high mesoclimatic variability, especially local extremes that likely support range limits of species and potential climatic refugia, can be captured in the network. Quantitative measures of network resiliency to climate change include the spatial range of key temperature and precipitation variables within planning units. Topoclimatic variability provides a finer-grained spatial patterning. Downscaling to the topoclimatic scale (10-50 m scale) includes modeling solar radiation across DEMs for predicting maximum temperature differentials, and topographic position indices for modeling minimum temperature differentials. PRISM data are also used to differentiate grasslands into distinct warm and cool types. The overall conservation strategy includes local and regional connectivity so that range shifts can be accommodated.

  13. The Impact of Climate Change in Rainfall Erosivity Index on Humid Mudstone Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ci-Jian; Lin, Jiun-Chuan

    2017-04-01

    It has been quite often pointed out in many relevant studies that climate change may result in negative impacts on soil erosion. Then, humid mudstone area is highly susceptible to climate change. Taiwan has extreme erosion in badland area, with annual precipitation over 2000 mm/y which is a considerably 3 times higher than other badland areas around the world, and with around 9-13 cm/y in denudation rate. This is the reason why the Erren River, a badland dominated basin has the highest mean sediment yield in the world, over 105 t km2 y. This study aims to know how the climate change would affect soil erosion from the source in the Erren River catchment. Firstly, the data of hourly precipitation from 1992 to 2016 are used to establish the regression between rainfall erosivity index (R, one of component for USLE) and precipitation. Secondly, using the 10 climate change models (provide form IPCC AR5) simulates the changes of monthly precipitation in different scenario from 2017 to 2216, and then over 200 years prediction R values can be use to describe the tendency of soil erosion in the future. The results show that (1) the relationship between rainfall erosion index and precipitation has high correction (>0.85) during 1992-2016. (2) From 2017 to 2216, 7 scenarios show that annual rainfall erosion index will increase over 2-18%. In contrast, the others will decrease over 7-14%. Overall, the variations of annual rainfall erosion index fall in the range of -14 to 18%, but it is important to pay attention to the variation of annual rainfall erosion index in extreme years. These fall in the range of -34 to 239%. This explains the extremity of soil erosion will occur easily in the future. Keywords: Climate Change, Mudstone, Rainfall Erosivity Index, IPCC AR5

  14. System and Method for Providing a Climate Data Analytic Services Application Programming Interface Distribution Package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnase, John L. (Inventor); Duffy, Daniel Q. (Inventor); Tamkin, Glenn S. (Inventor)

    2016-01-01

    A system, method and computer-readable storage devices for providing a climate data analytic services application programming interface distribution package. The example system can provide various components. The system provides a climate data analytic services application programming interface library that enables software applications running on a client device to invoke the capabilities of a climate data analytic service. The system provides a command-line interface that provides a means of interacting with a climate data analytic service by issuing commands directly to the system's server interface. The system provides sample programs that call on the capabilities of the application programming interface library and can be used as templates for the construction of new client applications. The system can also provide test utilities, build utilities, service integration utilities, and documentation.

  15. Connecting climate social adaptation and land use change in internationally adjoining protected areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Rodríguez Solórzano

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of climate adaptation strategies to address social problems derived from climate change is pressing. Yet, in addition to providing means to minimise the impact of climate variability and change on livelihoods, climate adaptation strategies might exacerbate environmental change and cause negative social impacts. Systematic research has not addressed the impacts of adaptation on environmental change. In this paper, I focus on land use change as a specific type of environmental change and on three adaptation strategies: diversification, pooling and out-migration. I analyse the influence of adaptation strategies on land use change by drawing on interviews with the managers of 56 internationally adjoining protected areas in 18 countries in the Americas. The findings indicate that the impact of adaptation depends on the adaptation strategy people choose. When people out-migrate, land use change increases. Community elite control for decision-making, shorter distances between communities and markets and more communities in and around the protected areas also increase land use change. These findings show that adaptation can be a driver of further environmental change, and thus further study is needed to understand the likely impacts of adaptation on conservation.

  16. Warming climate extends dryness-controlled areas of terrestrial carbon sequestration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Chuixiang; Wei, Suhua; Hendrey, George

    2014-07-01

    At biome-scale, terrestrial carbon uptake is controlled mainly by weather variability. Observational data from a global monitoring network indicate that the sensitivity of terrestrial carbon sequestration to mean annual temperature (T) breaks down at a threshold value of 16°C, above which terrestrial CO2 fluxes are controlled by dryness rather than temperature. Here we show that since 1948 warming climate has moved the 16°C T latitudinal belt poleward. Land surface area with T > 16°C and now subject to dryness control rather than temperature as the regulator of carbon uptake has increased by 6% and is expected to increase by at least another 8% by 2050. Most of the land area subjected to this warming is arid or semiarid with ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to drought and land degradation. In areas now dryness-controlled, net carbon uptake is ~27% lower than in areas in which both temperature and dryness (T areas may be triggering a positive feedback accelerating global warming. Continued increases in land area with T > 16°C has implications not only for positive feedback on climate change, but also for ecosystem integrity and land cover, particularly for pastoral populations in marginal lands.

  17. Climate and weather of the Sun-Earth system (CAWSES) highlights from a priority program

    CERN Document Server

    Lübken, Franz-Josef

    2012-01-01

    CAWSES (Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System) is the most important scientific program of SCOSTEP (Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics). CAWSES has triggered a scientific priority program within the German Research Foundation for a period of 6 years. Approximately 30 scientific institutes and 120 scientists were involved in Germany with strong links to international partners. The priority program focuses on solar influence on climate, atmospheric coupling processes, and space climatology. This book summarizes the most important results from this program covering some impor

  18. Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Tourism: Challenges for Ski Area Operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damm, A.; Köberl, J.; Prettenthaler, F.; Töglhofer, C.

    2012-04-01

    Increasing temperatures and snow scarce winter seasons pose a big challenge for the winter tourism industry. Changing natural snow reliability influences tourism demand and ski area operators are faced with an enhanced need of technical snow production. The goal of the present research work is to analyze the economic effects of technical snow production under future climate conditions. Snowmaking as an adaptation strategy to climate change impacts on the ski tourism industry is already taken into consideration in several studies from a scientific perspective concerning snowmaking potentials under future climate conditions and the impacts on ski season length (e.g. Scott et al. 2003; Scott & McBoyle 2007; Hennessy et al. 2008; Steiger 2010). A few studies considered economic aspects of technical snowmaking (e.g. Teich et al. 2007; Gonseth 2008). However, a detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of snowmaking under future climate and snow conditions based on sophisticated climate and snow models has not been carried out yet. The present study addresses the gap of knowledge concerning the economic profitability of prospective snowmaking requirements under future climate scenarios. We carry out a detailed cost-revenue analysis of snowmaking under current and future climate conditions for a case study site in Styria (Austria) using dynamic investment models. The starting point of all economic calculations is the daily demand for artificial snow that determines the requirements for additional snowmaking investments and additional operating costs. The demand for artificial snow is delivered by the snow cover model AMUNDSEN (see Strasser et al. 2011) and is driven by four climate scenarios. Apart from future climate conditions the profitability of snowmaking depends on changes in costs and visitor numbers. The results of a ski tourism demand model analyzing daily visitor numbers and their dependencies of prevailing weather conditions enter the cost-revenue analysis of

  19. Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moloney Kirk A

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades. Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Results Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. Conclusion The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the

  20. Impact of Rice Paddy Areas Decrease on Local Climate over Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, M. H.; Wen, W. H.; Chen, C. C.

    2014-12-01

    Agricultural irrigation practice is one of the important anthropogenic processes in the land surface modeling. Irrigation can decrease local surface temperature with alternating surface energy partitioning. Rice paddy is the major food crop in Asian monsoon region and rice is grown under flooded conditions during the growing season; hence, the rice paddy can be considered as an open water body, which has more impacts on the surface energy budget than other cropland does. In this study, we explore how the rice paddy area changes affect Taiwan's regional climate from both observational data and numerical modeling exercise. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is utilized to explore impacts of rice paddy area changes on the regional climate, and energy and water budget changes. In addition, temperature datasets from six automatic weather stations in the northern Taiwan and two stations in the southern Taiwan are analyzed in this study to explore how the Daily Temperature Range (DTR) changes with the decreased rice paddy areas. Previous studies show that due to the urban heat island effect, aerosol direct and indirect effects, and global warming, the DTR has decreased in the past 4 decades observed from most of the weather stations around Taiwan. However, the declined rice paddy area may increase the DTR with higher Bowen ratio during the daytime. Preliminary results show that DTR is decreased in weather stations near the urban area, but increased in weather stations near fallow areas in the past 20 years. It shows that different land use changes may have opposite impacts on local and regional climate.

  1. Post Milestone B Funding Climate and Cost Growth in Major Defense Acquisition Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    I N S T I T U T E F O R D E F E N S E A N A L Y S E S IDA Paper P-8091 March 2017 Post-Milestone B Funding Climate and Cost Growth in Major...Jun 2013]. Post-Milestone B Funding Climate and Cost Growth in Major Defense Acquisition Programs David L. McNicol I N S T I T U T E F O R D E F...entered a boom climate for procurement funding some time after passing Milestone (MS) B on average had higher unit cost growth than programs whose

  2. Regional impact of climate on Japanese encephalitis in areas located near the three gorges dam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Yuntao; Xu, Zhiguang; Zhang, Jing; Mao, Deqiang; Luo, Chao; He, Yuanyuan; Liang, Guodong; Lu, Bo; Bisesi, Michael S; Sun, Qinghua; Xu, Xinyi; Yang, Weizhong; Liu, Qiyong

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we aim to identify key climatic factors that are associated with the transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus in areas located near the Three Gorges Dam, between 1997 and 2008. We identified three geographical regions of Chongqing, based on their distance from the Three Gorges Dam. Collectively, the three regions consisted of 12 districts from which study information was collected. Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression models were run to identify key climatic factors of the transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus for both the whole study area and for each individual region; linear regression models were conducted to examine the fluctuation of climatic variables over time during the construction of the Three Gorges Dam. Between 1997 and 2008, the incidence of Japanese encephalitis decreased throughout the entire city of Chongqing, with noticeable variations taking place in 2000, 2001 and 2006. The eastern region, which is closest to the Three Gorges Dam, suffered the highest incidence of Japanese encephalitis, while the western region experienced the lowest incidence. Linear regression models revealed that there were seasonal fluctuations of climatic variables during this period. Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression models indicated a significant positive association between temperature (with a lag of 1 and 3 months) and Japanese encephalitis incidence, and a significant negative association between rainfall (with a lag of 0 and 4 months) and Japanese encephalitis incidence. The spatial and temporal trends of Japanese encephalitis incidence that occurred in the City of Chongqing were associated with temperature and rainfall. Seasonal fluctuations of climatic variables during this period were also observed. Additional studies that focus on long-term data collection are needed to validate the findings of this study and to further explore the effects of the Three Gorges Dam on Japanese encephalitis and other related diseases.

  3. Regional impact of climate on Japanese encephalitis in areas located near the three gorges dam.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuntao Bai

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In this study, we aim to identify key climatic factors that are associated with the transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus in areas located near the Three Gorges Dam, between 1997 and 2008. METHODS: We identified three geographical regions of Chongqing, based on their distance from the Three Gorges Dam. Collectively, the three regions consisted of 12 districts from which study information was collected. Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression models were run to identify key climatic factors of the transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus for both the whole study area and for each individual region; linear regression models were conducted to examine the fluctuation of climatic variables over time during the construction of the Three Gorges Dam. RESULTS: Between 1997 and 2008, the incidence of Japanese encephalitis decreased throughout the entire city of Chongqing, with noticeable variations taking place in 2000, 2001 and 2006. The eastern region, which is closest to the Three Gorges Dam, suffered the highest incidence of Japanese encephalitis, while the western region experienced the lowest incidence. Linear regression models revealed that there were seasonal fluctuations of climatic variables during this period. Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression models indicated a significant positive association between temperature (with a lag of 1 and 3 months and Japanese encephalitis incidence, and a significant negative association between rainfall (with a lag of 0 and 4 months and Japanese encephalitis incidence. CONCLUSION: The spatial and temporal trends of Japanese encephalitis incidence that occurred in the City of Chongqing were associated with temperature and rainfall. Seasonal fluctuations of climatic variables during this period were also observed. Additional studies that focus on long-term data collection are needed to validate the findings of this study and to further explore the effects of the Three Gorges Dam on Japanese

  4. Evaluation of the Alliance for Climate Education's national high school edutainment program (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lappe, M.; Flora, J.; Saphir, M.; Roser-Renouf, C.; Maibach, E.; Leiserowitz, A.

    2013-12-01

    The Alliance for Climate Education educates high school students on the science of climate change and inspires them to create effective solutions. Since 2009, ACE has reached over 1.6 million students nationwide with its multi media assembly presentation. In this paper, we evaluate the climate science knowledge, beliefs, attitudes, behavior and communication impact of the ACE Assembly program in a random sample of 49 schools (from population of 779) and a panel of 1,241 high school students. Pre and post assembly surveys composed of questions from the Global Warming Six Americas segmentation and intervention specific questions were administered in classrooms. We demonstrate that exposure to climate science in an engaging edutainment format changes youths' beliefs, involvement, and behavior positively and moves them to more climate science literate audience segments. The net impact of scaled and engaging programs for youth could be a population shift in climate science literacy and positive engagement in the issue of climate change. In addition, such programs can empower youth for deeper engagement in school programs, personal action, political and consumer advocacy.

  5. Climate adaptation in NVE's areas of responsibility - Strategy 2010 - 2014; Klimatilpasning innen NVEs ansvarsomraader - Strategi 2010 - 2014

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamarsland, Arne T. (ed.)

    2010-09-15

    NVE has developed a comprehensive climate change strategies within their areas of responsibility. There is a systematic review of how a future climate change will affect NVE management areas; how to meet challenges, vulnerabilities, opportunities and proposals for adaptation measures. Climate adaptation is a dynamic process. It is therefore necessary to follow up the work continuously and correct direction at regular intervals. Climate change adaptation strategy of adaptation measures is a foundation and a direction sensor in NVE's business planning. (AG)

  6. 25 CFR 2.19 - Action by Area Directors and Education Programs officials on appeal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Action by Area Directors and Education Programs officials... Programs officials on appeal. (a) Area Directors, Area Education Programs Administrators, Agency...—Indian Affairs/Director (Indian Education Programs) shall render written decisions in all cases appealed...

  7. Climate change in the Carpathian-Balkan Area. Advancing research and cooperation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcel MINDRESCU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The Carpathian Mountains are considered to be one of Europe’s last “wilderness” areas, but are nevertheless under heavy pressure from human activities. Examples range from large-scale activities (e.g. metal and coal mining and ecological disasters (e.g. tailing dam failures in the Toroiaga and Baia Mare areas to cross-border pollution (e.g. Chernobyl nuclear accident. The current political thrust for economic development is accelerating the pace of industrial activities, exploitation of natural resources and tourism. Romania has just recently been integrated into the European Union and many community-based projects were initiated to evaluate problems related to climatic and anthropogenic impacts.The diversity of landforms that characterize the Carpathian region encompassing mountain ranges and large spans of adjacent lowlands and the dynamic interplay between North Atlantic, continental, and Mediterranean atmospheric circulation patterns in southeastern Europe, have resulted in extremely fragmented habitats and exceptional biodiversity (Veres and Mindrescu, 2013. However, the Carpathian Mountains remain the least studied mountain environment in Europe, as reflected for example by the low number of well-dated and high-resolution paleorecords (e.g. Buczkó et al. 2009. Rose et al. (2009 published a pollution history study from a lake in the Retezat Mountains at the western extremity of the Southern Carpathians, but no paleoenvironmental studies exist for the rest of the mountain range, despite the abundance of suitable sites (Akinyemi et al., 2013.An interdisciplinary approach to geoscience is particularly important in this vast research field (geosciences, as innovative science is increasingly stimulated by studies that cross disciplinary boundaries and thus benefit from multiple research methods and viewpoints. Grasping this concept has led us to encourage interdisciplinary cooperation by creating “meeting places” where geoscience

  8. Local climate assessments in data scarce mountain areas; for example Kullu district, Himachal Pradesh, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linsbauer, Andreas; Salzmann, Nadine; Rohrer, Mario

    2016-04-01

    High-mountain regions like the Himalayas and their adjacent downstream areas are often highly affected by climate change, climate variability and/or related extremes. As a result of cascading effects of rising air temperatures, melting glaciers, thawing permafrost - as well as anthropogenic water usage or changes in forest and agro-biodiversity - potential impacts on people's livelihood has broadened and increased. However, climate impacts assessments on physical and societal systems are often limited due to the scarcity of reliable long-term observations, particularly in remote high-mountain regions, which additionally also hampers robustness of future projections. Since livelihoods in remote high-mountain regions are particularly vulnerable to climate related impacts, and have typically only low adaptive capacities, studies assessing climate variability pattern of the past and for the future (climate baselines) are a fundamental requirement for sound impact assessments, and as such for preparing and planning adequate adaptation measures. Within the Indian Himalayas Climate Adaptation Programme (IHCAP) an integrated vulnerability and hazard and risk assessment is being conducted for the Kullu district in Himachal Pradesh, India, for the sake of supporting adaptation planning there. Related to these studies, the present work aims to provide an approach and according results for climatological baseline generation for regions without respective observations available or accessible. Here, we use observational gridded data sets (CRU, Delaware) and Reanalyses (ERA-20C, JRA-55, NCEP CFSR, ERA-i, NCEP/NCAR-R1) to provide spatially and temporally continuous data. For the grid boxes covering the area of interest, the time series for temperature are analysed and possible trends and variations are assessed for the time window 1981-2010, as well as the entire time line of the respective gridded dataset. The analyses reveal that the mean annual air temperatures over all levels

  9. Signals of climate change in butterfly communities in a Mediterranean protected area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zografou, Konstantina; Kati, Vassiliki; Grill, Andrea; Wilson, Robert J; Tzirkalli, Elli; Pamperis, Lazaros N; Halley, John M

    2014-01-01

    The European protected-area network will cease to be efficient for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the Mediterranean region, if species are driven out of protected areas by climate warming. Yet, no empirical evidence of how climate change influences ecological communities in Mediterranean nature reserves really exists. Here, we examine long-term (1998-2011/2012) and short-term (2011-2012) changes in the butterfly fauna of Dadia National Park (Greece) by revisiting 21 and 18 transects in 2011 and 2012 respectively, that were initially surveyed in 1998. We evaluate the temperature trend for the study area for a 22-year-period (1990-2012) in which all three butterfly surveys are included. We also assess changes in community composition and species richness in butterfly communities using information on (a) species' elevational distributions in Greece and (b) Community Temperature Index (calculated from the average temperature of species' geographical ranges in Europe, weighted by species' abundance per transect and year). Despite the protected status of Dadia NP and the subsequent stability of land use regimes, we found a marked change in butterfly community composition over a 13 year period, concomitant with an increase of annual average temperature of 0.95°C. Our analysis gave no evidence of significant year-to-year (2011-2012) variability in butterfly community composition, suggesting that the community composition change we recorded is likely the consequence of long-term environmental change, such as climate warming. We observe an increased abundance of low-elevation species whereas species mainly occurring at higher elevations in the region declined. The Community Temperature Index was found to increase in all habitats except agricultural areas. If equivalent changes occur in other protected areas and taxonomic groups across Mediterranean Europe, new conservation options and approaches for increasing species' resilience may have to be devised.

  10. Co-evolution of hydrological components under climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viola, F; Francipane, A; Caracciolo, D; Pumo, D; La Loggia, G; Noto, L V

    2016-02-15

    The Mediterranean area is historically characterized by high human pressure on water resources. Today, while climate is projected to be modified in the future, through precipitation decrease and temperature increase, that jointly and non-linearly may affect runoff, concerns about water availability are increasing. For these reasons, quantitative assessment of future modifications in the mean annual water availability are important; likewise, the description of the future interannual variability of some hydrological components such as runoff and evapotranspiration are highly wished for water management and ecosystems dynamics analyses. This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration, exploring their probability density functions and their interdependence as functions of climatic changes. In order to do that, a parsimonious conceptual lumped model is here used. The model is forced by different future climate scenarios, generated through a weather generator based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) realizations. The use of the adopted hydrological model, under reliable stochastic future climate scenarios, allows to project future values of evapotranspiration and runoff in a probabilistic framework and, at the same time, the evaluation of their bivariate frequency distributions for changes through the Multivariate Kernel Density Estimation method. As a case study, a benchmark Mediterranean watershed has been proposed (Imera Meridionale, Italy). Results suggest a radical shift and shape modification of the annual runoff and evapotranspiration probability density functions. Possible implications and impacts on water resources management are here addressed and discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ying; Ren, Ting; Kinney, Patrick L; Joyner, Andrew; Zhang, Wei

    2018-02-12

    Global climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and has the potential to increase future mortality attributable to heat. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to heat because of high concentrations of susceptible people. As the world's largest developing country, China has experienced noticeable changes in climate, partially evidenced by frequent occurrence of extreme heat in urban areas, which could expose millions of residents to summer heat stress that may result in increased health risk, including mortality. While there is a growing literature on future impacts of extreme temperatures on public health, projecting changes in future health outcomes associated with climate warming remains challenging and underexplored, particularly in developing countries. This is an exploratory study aimed at projecting future heat-related mortality risk in major urban areas in China. We focus on the 51 largest Chinese cities that include about one third of the total population in China, and project the potential changes in heat-related mortality based on 19 different global-scale climate models and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). City-specific risk estimates for high temperature and all-cause mortality were used to estimate annual heat-related mortality over two future twenty-year time periods. We estimated that for the 20-year period in Mid-21st century (2041-2060) relative to 1970-2000, incidence of excess heat-related mortality in the 51 cities to be approximately 37,800 (95% CI: 31,300-43,500), 31,700 (95% CI: 26,200-36,600) and 25,800 (95% CI: 21,300-29,800) deaths per year under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. Slowing climate change through the most stringent emission control scenario RCP2.6, relative to RCP8.5, was estimated to avoid 12,900 (95% CI: 10,800-14,800) deaths per year in the 51 cities in the 2050s, and 35,100 (95% CI: 29,200-40,100) deaths per year in the 2070s. The highest mortality risk is primarily in cities

  12. The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - DYNAMO Recent Project Advancements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, S. E.; Todd, J. F.; Higgins, W.

    2013-12-01

    The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within the Earth System Science (ESS) Division at NOAA's Climate Program Office. Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO): The Indian Ocean is one of Earth's most sensitive regions because the interactions between ocean and atmosphere there have a discernable effect on global climate patterns. The tropical weather that brews in that region can move eastward along the equator and reverberate around the globe, shaping weather and climate in far-off places. The vehicle for this variability is a phenomenon called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO. The MJO, which originates over the Indian Ocean roughly every 30 to 90 days, is known to influence the Asian and Australian monsoons. It can also enhance hurricane activity in the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, trigger torrential rainfall along the west coast of North America, and affect the onset of El Niño. CVP-funded scientists participated in the DYNAMO field campaign in 2011-12. Results from this international campaign are expected to improve researcher's insights into this influential phenomenon. A better understanding of the processes governing MJO is an essential step toward

  13. Federal climate change programs : funding history and policy issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    In recent years, the federal government has allocated several billion dollars annually for projects to expand the understanding of climate change or to reduce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. Most of that spending is done by t...

  14. South Asian Water (SAWA) Leadership Program on Climate Change ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    évolution du climat, les principaux risques en Asie du Sud seraient une augmentation du débordement des rivières, des inondations côtières et des inondations en milieu urbain ainsi que des pénuries d'eau et d'aliments reliées à des sécheresses, ...

  15. Developing a Climate-Induced Social Vulnerability Index for Urban Areas: A Case Study of East Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Carvalhaes, Thomaz M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-09-01

    Census American Community Survey 2008-2012 data are used to construct a spatially explicit Climate-Induced Social Vulnerability Index (CSVI) for the East Tennessee area. This CSVI is a combination of a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and a Climate Index. A method is replicated and adapted to derive a custom SVI by Census tract for the counties participating in the East Tennessee Index, and a Climate Index is developed for the same area based on indicators for climate hazards. The resulting datasets are exported as a raster to be integrated and combined within the Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT) to act as an indicator for communities which may be differentially vulnerable to changes in climate. Results for the SVI are mapped separately from the complete CSVI in this document as results for the latter are in development.

  16. Radionuclide Inventory and Distribution Program: the Galileo area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McArthur, R.D.; Kordas, J.F.

    1983-12-28

    The Galileo area is the first region of the Nevada Test Site to be surveyed by the Radionuclide Inventory and Distribution Program (RIDP). This report describes in detail the use of soil sampling and in situ spectrometry to estimate radionuclide activities at selected sampling locations; the descriptions of these methods will be used as a reference for future RIDP reports. The data collected at Galileo were analyzed by kriging and the polygons of influence method to estimate the total inventory and the distribution of six man-made radionuclides. The results of the different statistical methods agree fairly well, although the data did not give very good estimates of the variogram for kriging, and further study showed the results of kriging to be highly dependent on the variogram parameters. The results also showed that in situ spectrometry gives better estimates of radionuclide activity than soil sampling, which tends to miss highly radioactive particles associated with vegetation. 18 references, 28 figures, 11 tables.

  17. Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Weiler, Markus; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021-2050 period, while for 2071-2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as "Near-normal", in terms of drought conditions.

  18. Surface area changes of Himalayan ponds as a proxy of hydrological climate-driven fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salerno, Franco; Thakuri, Sudeep; Guyennon, Nicolas; Viviano, Gaetano; Tartari, Gianni

    2016-04-01

    The meteorological measurements at high-elevations of the Himalayan range are scarce due to the harsh conditions of these environments which limit the suitable maintenance of weather stations. As a consequence, the meager knowledge on how the climate is changed in the last decades at Himalayan high-elevations sets a serious limit upon the interpretation of relationships between causes and recent observed effects on the cryosphere. Although the glaciers masses reduction in Himalaya is currently sufficiently well described, how changes in climate drivers (precipitation and temperature) have influenced the melting and shrinkage processes are less clear. Consequently, the uncertainty related to the recent past amplifies when future forecasts are done, both for climate and impacts. In this context, a substantial body of research has already demonstrated the high sensitivity of lakes and ponds to climate. Some climate-related signals are highly visible and easily measurable in lakes. For example, climate-driven fluctuations in lake surface area have been observed in many remote sites. On interior Tibetan Plateau the lake growth since the late 1990s is mainly attributed to increased regional precipitation and weakened evaporation. Differently, other authors attribute at the observed increases of lake surfaces at the enhanced glacier melting. In our opinion these divergences found in literature are due to the type of glacial lakes considered in the study and in particular their relationship with glaciers. In general, in Himalaya three types of glacial lakes can be distinguished: (i) lakes that are not directly connected with glaciers, but that may have a glacier located in their basin (unconnected glacial lakes); (ii) supraglacial lakes, which develop on the surface of the glacier downstream; or (iii) proglacial lakes, which are moraine-dammed lakes that are in contact with the glacier front. Some of these lakes store large quantities of water and are susceptible to GLOFs

  19. An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Andersson-Sköld

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of heat waves, flooding and air pollution in urban settings, with the aim of reducing the risk of maladaptation. The study includes strategies covering different spatial scales, and both the current climate situation and the climate predicted under climate change scenarios. The adaptation strategies investigated included increasing vegetation; selecting density, height and colour of buildings; and retreat or resist (defend against sea-level rise. Their effectiveness was assessed with regard to not only flooding, heat stress and air quality but also with regard to resource use, emissions to air (incl. GHG, soil and water, and people’s perceptions and vulnerability. The effectiveness of the strategies were ranked on a common scale (from −3 to 3 in an integrated assessment. Integrated assessments are recommended, as they help identify the most sustainable solutions, but to reduce the risk of maladaptation they require experts from a variety of disciplines. The most generally applicable recommendation, derived from the integrated assessment here, taking into account both expertise from different municipal departments, literature surveys, life cycle assessments and publics perceptions, is to increase the urban greenery, as it contributes to several positive aspects such as heat stress mitigation, air quality improvement, effective storm-water and flood-risk management, and it has several positive social impacts. The most favourable alternative was compact, mid

  20. Protected areas offer refuge from invasive species spreading under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallardo, Belinda; Aldridge, David C; González-Moreno, Pablo; Pergl, Jan; Pizarro, Manuel; Pyšek, Petr; Thuiller, Wilfried; Yesson, Christopher; Vilà, Montserrat

    2017-12-01

    Protected areas (PAs) are intended to provide native biodiversity and habitats with a refuge against the impacts of global change, particularly acting as natural filters against biological invasions. In practice, however, it is unknown how effective PAs will be in shielding native species from invasions under projected climate change. Here, we investigate the current and future potential distributions of 100 of the most invasive terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species in Europe. We use this information to evaluate the combined threat posed by climate change and invasions to existing PAs and the most susceptible species they shelter. We found that only a quarter of Europe's marine and terrestrial areas protected over the last 100 years have been colonized by any of the invaders investigated, despite offering climatically suitable conditions for invasion. In addition, hotspots of invasive species and the most susceptible native species to their establishment do not match at large continental scales. Furthermore, the predicted richness of invaders is 11%-18% significantly lower inside PAs than outside them. Invasive species are rare in long-established national parks and nature reserves, which are actively protected and often located in remote and pristine regions with very low human density. In contrast, the richness of invasive species is high in the more recently designated Natura 2000 sites, which are subject to high human accessibility. This situation may change in the future, since our models anticipate important shifts in species ranges toward the north and east of Europe at unprecedented rates of 14-55 km/decade, depending on taxonomic group and scenario. This may seriously compromise the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This study is the first comprehensive assessment of the resistance that PAs provide against biological invasions and climate change on a continental scale and illustrates their strategic value in safeguarding native

  1. DoD Climate Change Fuel Cell Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ken Olsen

    2006-09-15

    's main circuit while the hot water flows from the fuel cell to the college through a closed loop equipped with internal heat exchangers mounted on a custom skid in the boiler room. Fresh make-up water for the fuel cell's reverse osmosis equipment is piped separately from the boiler room out to the fuel cell. The fuel cell operates in parallel with the local electric utility's distribution system that serves the general area. The interconnection design relies on the grid protection components that come as standard equipment in the FCE unit design. Ultimately, the only substantive approval for the installation was for the parallel interconnection with the grid, provided by Jersey Central Power & Light. The utility had a well-defined set of interconnection requirements and procedures for units under 5 MW, and the approval process went smoothly and caused little delays. The primary liaison with PPL and the college was the utility's account representative. PPL and the college report that JCP&L was quite supportive of the project. The 60 percent reimbursement of installed costs was made through the New Jersey Clean Energy Fund, which is in turn funded through utility contributions. The Department of Energy provided an additional $250,000 grant under the Department of Defense fuel cell buy down program. PPL started testing the fuel cell on October 31, 2003. Final acceptance of the fuel cell was completed on December 21, 2003. Following several months of start-up activities, a high availability factor and few operating difficulties have marked operations during the first year.

  2. Improving Climate Science Education by Supporting Faculty: Climate Programs from On the Cutting Edge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiese, K.; Kirk, K. B.; Manduca, C. A.; Shellito, L. J.; Sztein, E.; Bruckner, M. Z.

    2011-12-01

    Students arrive in our classrooms with a wide range of viewpoints on climate change. Some carry misconceptions resulting from media portrayal of the subject; others have strong feelings about the policy of climate change that overshadow their understanding of the science; while some already grasp the basics of climate science and are thirsty for a more in-depth treatment. In any of these cases, the topic of climate change is likely to be of high interest to students and will challenge faculty to be well-versed in the science, the policy, and in effective pedagogic strategies. The On the Cutting Edge project continues its emphasis on climate science, climate change and energy resources with ongoing professional development events. An underlying theme of all of these events is to help faculty be more effective teachers by providing up-to-date science, examples of promising pedagogies and a forum to network with others who teach similar subjects. A monthly webinar and book club series about teaching climate and energy was offered throughout the 2010-2011 academic year. These one-hour events allowed faculty a convenient way to learn about science topics such as carbon capture and storage, nuclear energy, thermohaline circulation, alternative energy, or the energy-water nexus. Some of the webinars focused on pedagogic approaches, including teaching with climate models, dealing with misconceptions, or using local energy issues for a semester-long jigsaw project. Webinar participants reported that they could expand their teaching to include these topics, they increased their comfort level in presenting those subjects and answering student questions, and they learned where to turn for additional references. An online workshop, Teaching about Earth's Climate Using Data and Numerical Models, was held in October 2010. Participants learned about different types of models, the strategies for teaching with models and how to use online datasets. The workshop also provided

  3. Impact of climate change on persistent turbidity in the water supply system of a Metropolitan Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, S. W.; Park, H. S.; Lim, K. J.; Kang, B.

    2016-12-01

    Persistent turbidity, a long-term resuspension of fine particles in aquatic system, is one of the major water quality concerns for the sustainable management of water supply systems in metropolitan areas. Turbid water has undesirable aesthetic and recreational appeal and may have harmful effect on ecosystem health, in addition to increasing water treatment costs in drinking water supply systems. These concerns have been more intensified as the strength and frequency of rainfall events increase by climate change in the Asian monsoon climate region, including Korea. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of potential climate change on the persistent turbidity of the Han River systems that supplies drinking water to approximately 25 million consumers dwelling in the Seoul Metropolitan areas. A comprehensive numerical and statistical modeling suit has been developed and applied to the systems for the projection of future climate, responding hydrological and soil erosion processes in the watershed, and sediment transport processes in the rivers and reservoirs systems. The down-scaled 100 years of climatic data from General Circulation Model (HadGEM2-AO) based on the IPCC's greenhouse-gas emissions scenario RCP4.5 were used for the forcing data of the watershed and river-reservoir models. As the results, an extreme flood event that may incur significant persistent turbidity was projected to be occurred five times in the future. The threshold of a flood event that is classified as an extreme event was based on the historical flood event that occurred on July of 2006 when turbid water had persisted within the Soyang Reservoir and discharged to the downstream of the Han River systems over the year until May of the following year. A two-dimensional river and reservoir model simulated the transport and dynamics of suspended sediments in Soyang Reservoir, and routed the discharged turbid water to the downstream of Paldang Reservoir, in which most of the drinking water

  4. Climate change and special habitats in the Blue Mountains: Riparian areas, wetlands, and groundwater-dependent ecosystems [Chapter 7

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathleen A. Dwire; Sabine Mellmann-Brown

    2017-01-01

    In the Blue Mountains, climate change is likely to have significant, long-term implications for freshwater resources, including riparian areas, wetlands (box 7.1), and groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs, box 7.2). Climate change is expected to cause a transition from snow to rain, resulting in diminished snowpack and shifts in streamflow to earlier in the season (...

  5. U.S. Climate Change Technology Program: Strategic Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-09-01

    Biomass refers to both biomass residues (agricultural wastes such as corn stover and rice hulls, forest residues, pulp and paper wastes, animal wastes...gallon of ethanol, assuming a cost of $45 per dry ton of corn stover .20 ◆ Thermochemical Conversion of Biomass. Thermochemical technology uses heat to...changes in ocean chemistry ; (6) maintaining in situ observing systems to characterize local-scale dynamics of the carbon cycle under changing climatic

  6. High School Athletes' Perceptions of the Motivational Climate in Their Off-Season Training Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlin, Jacob M; Fry, Mary D; Iwasaki, Susumu

    2017-03-01

    Chamberlin, JM, Fry, MD, and Iwasaki, S. High school athletes' perceptions of the motivational climate in their off-season training programs. J Strength Cond Res 31(3): 736-742, 2017-Athletes benefit tremendously from working hard in off-season training (OST) because it sets them up to avoid injuries and perform their best during the season. Ironically, many athletes struggle to stay motivated to participate regularly in this training. Research has highlighted the benefits for athletes perceiving a caring and task-involving climate, where they gauge their success based on their personal effort and improvement, and perceive each member of the team is treated with mutual kindness and respect. Athletes who perceive a caring and task-involving climate on their teams are more likely to report greater adaptive motivational responses. Research has not currently examined athletes' perceptions of the climate in OST programs. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between athletes' perceptions of the climate in an OST program and their motivational responses. High school athletes (N = 128; 90 males 35 females; mean age = 15.3 years) participating in summer OST programs completed a survey that included measures of intrinsic motivation, commitment, their valuing OST, feeling like it is their decision to participate in OST, their perceptions that their teammates take OST seriously, and attendance. A canonical correlation revealed that athletes, who perceived a highly caring and task-involving climate reported higher intrinsic motivation, value of and commitment to OST; attendance; and perceived teammates take OST seriously. Results suggest that creating a caring and task-involving climate in OST programs may help athletes optimize their motivation to participate in important strength and conditioning programs.

  7. Variability of extreme climate events in the territory and water area of Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serykh, Ilya; Kostianoy, Andrey

    2016-04-01

    (depending on the parameters) in the territory and water area of Russia for determining and mapping of the observed characteristics and trends in the extreme climate events and statistical forecast of these events for the next decades. Determination of a frequency, intensity and duration of extreme climate events in the territory and water area of Russia was done for the first time. It was found that the interannual-scale dynamics of ENSO is actually reflected in the climate features of different regions of the Earth, including the Russian Arctic. In particular, when the boreal winter season coincides with an El Niño event it is indicative by a negative anomaly of near-surface temperature (about -1°C) and a positive anomaly of sea level pressure over the Russian Western Arctic Basin. In contrary, significant (about +1°C) positive anomaly of near-surface temperature along with reduced sea level pressure over the regions of the Barents, White and Kara Seas is typical for any La Niña event (up to 95% significance of Student's t-test). The study was carried out with a support of the Russian Science Foundation Grant (Project N 14-50-00095).

  8. Envisioning Urban Farming for Food Security during the Climate Change Era. Vertical Farm within Highly Urbanized Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Januszkiewicz, Krystyna; Jarmusz, Małgorzata

    2017-10-01

    Global climate change constitutes a serious threat to global security including food production in the following decades. This paper is focused on a new possibility and advisability of creating a systemic solution to resolve the problem of food security in highly-urbanized areas. The first part of the paper deal with historical development vertical farms ideas and defines the main environmental and spatial constrains also it indicates that vertical farms are going to be part of the future horticultural production. The second part presents results of the research program undertaken at West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin by authors. The program goes on to attempt to solve the problem through architectural design. This study highlights an integrating large-scale horticultural production directly into the cities, where the most of the food consumption takes place. In conclusions emphasizes, that the design will force architects, engineers and urban planners to completely revise and redefine contemporary design process and understanding of the idea-fix of sustainable design. To successfully migrate food production from extensive rural areas to dense environment of city centres, a new holistic approach, integrating knowledge and advances of multiple fields of science, have to develop.

  9. Warming climate extends dryness-controlled areas of terrestrial carbon sequestration

    OpenAIRE

    Chuixiang Yi; Suhua Wei; George Hendrey

    2014-01-01

    At biome-scale, terrestrial carbon uptake is controlled mainly by weather variability. Observational data from a global monitoring network indicate that the sensitivity of terrestrial carbon sequestration to mean annual temperature (T) breaks down at a threshold value of 16°C, above which terrestrial CO2 fluxes are controlled by dryness rather than temperature. Here we show that since 1948 warming climate has moved the 16°C T latitudinal belt poleward. Land surface area with T > 16°C and now ...

  10. NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR), Version 4

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains gridded daily Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) derived from the NOAA Climate Data...

  11. Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Protected Area Networks: A Method to Simulate Individual Species' Responses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willis, Stephen; Hole, Dave; Collingham, Yvonne

    2009-01-01

    . In this article, we provide a method to simulate the occurrence of species of conservation concern in protected areas, which could be used as a first-step approach to assess the potential impacts of climate change upon such species in protected areas. We use species-climate response surface models to relate...... technique provides good simulations of current species' occurrence in protected areas. We then use basic habitat data for IBAs along with habitat preference data for the species to reduce over-prediction and further improve predictive ability. This approach can be used with future climate change scenarios...... Area (IBA) network is a series of sites designed to conserve avian diversity in the face of current threats from factors such as habitat loss and fragmentation. However, in common with other networks, the IBA network is based on the assumption that the climate will remain unchanged in the future...

  12. Coastal Climate Change Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation in the Natural and Built Environments: Progress of the Coastal Areas Climate Change Education Partnership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldman, A.; Herman, B.; Vernaza-Hernández, V.; Ryan, J. G.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Gilbes, F.

    2011-12-01

    The Coastal Area Climate Change Education (CACCE) Partnership, funded by the National Science Foundation, seeks to develop new ways to educate citizens about global climate change. The core themes are sea level rise and impacts of climate change in the southeastern United States and the Caribbean Sea. CACCE focuses on helping partners, educators, students, and the general public gain a fundamental and working understanding of the interrelation among the natural environment, built environment, and social aspects in the context of climate change in coastal regions. To this end, CACCE's objectives reported here include: 1) defining the current state of awareness, perceptions, and literacy about the impacts of climate change; and 2) testing a model of transdisciplinary research and learning as a means of training a new generation of climate professionals. Objective one is met in part by CACCE survey efforts that reveal Florida and Puerto Rico secondary science teachers hold many non-scientific views about climate change and climate change science and provide inadequate instruction about climate change. Associated with objective two are five Multiple Outcome Interdisciplinary Research and Learning (MOIRL) pilot projects underway in schools in Florida and Puerto Rico. In the CACCE Partnership the stakeholders include: students (K-16 and graduate); teachers and education researchers; informal science educators; scientists and engineers; business and industry; policy makers; and community members. CACCE combines interdisciplinary research with action research and community-based participatory research in a way that is best described as "transdisciplinary". Learning occurs in all spheres of interactions among stakeholders as they engage in scientific, educational, community and business activities through their legitimate peripheral participation in research communities of practice. We will describe the process of seeking and building partnerships, and call for a dialogue

  13. A window of opportunity for climate-change adaptation: easing tree mortality by reducing forest basal area

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Bradford; David M Bell

    2016-01-01

    Increasing aridity as a result of climate change is expected to exacerbate tree mortality. Reducing forest basal area – the cross-sectional area of tree stems within a given ground area – can decrease tree competition, which may reduce drought-induced tree mortality. However, neither the magnitude of expected mortality increases, nor the potential effectiveness of...

  14. Monitoring the Impact of Climate Change on Soil Salinity in Agricultural Areas Using Ground and Satellite Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changes in climatic patterns have had dramatic influence on agricultural areas worldwide, particularly in irrigated arid-zone agricultural areas subjected to recurring drought, such as California’s San Joaquin Valley (SJV), or areas receiving above average rainfall for a decade or more, such as Minn...

  15. Effect of landscape density in a residential area on thermal performance in a tropical climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamarulzaman Noorazlina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available It is a well-documented that the urban air temperature is gradually growing in all cities due to the rapid development of buildings, roads and other infrastructure, human activities and also decreasing in vegetated areas. In a tropical climate, outdoor environment is clearly warmer than indoor environment due to higher air temperatures, particularly in dry seasons. Since the indoor environment is influenced by its surroundings, this situation indirectly contributes to the discomfort indoor environment in the building. Thus, it generates to the dependence on mechanical ventilation and increase the energy consumption in buildings. Many research studies have proof that plants not only beauty a city, but also improve the urban environmental condition by reducing the transferring of heat flux on buildings and increasing the reflection of radiation and shading. Therefore strategically placed vegetation around a building could decrease the energy consumption in buildings by reducing the adverse impact of some climate elements. Overall, this paper focuses on the results of a preliminary pilot study of two Semi-Detached houses with different landscape density in Seri Iskandar, Perak. Three climatic parameters, building configuration, and landscape design measured and analyze in this paper.

  16. Error characteristics of high resolution regional climate models over the Alpine area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suklitsch, Martin; Gobiet, Andreas; Truhetz, Heimo; Khurshid Awan, Nauman [University of Graz, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change and Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics and Meteorology, Institute of Physics, Graz (Austria); Goettel, Holger [German Emissions Trading Authority at the Federal Environment Agency, Berlin (Germany); Jacob, Daniela [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg (Germany)

    2011-07-15

    This study describes typical error ranges of high resolution regional climate models operated over complex orography and investigates the scale-dependence of these error ranges. The results are valid primarily for the European Alpine region, but to some extent they can also be transferred to other orographically complex regions of the world. We investigate the model errors by evaluating a set of 62 one-year hindcast experiments for the year 1999 with four different regional climate models. The analysis is conducted for the parameters mean sea level pressure, air temperature (mean, minimum and maximum) and precipitation (mean, frequency and intensity), both as an area average over the whole modeled domain (the ''Greater Alpine Region'', GAR) and in six subregions. The subregional seasonal error ranges, defined as the interval between the 2.5th percentile and the 97.5th percentile, lie between -3.2 and +2.0 K for temperature and between -2.0 and +3.1 mm/day (-45.7 and +94.7%) for precipitation, respectively. While the temperature error ranges are hardly broadened at smaller scales, the precipitation error ranges increase by 28%. These results demonstrate that high resolution RCMs are applicable in relatively small scale climate impact studies with a comparable quality as on well investigated larger scales as far as temperature is concerned. For precipitation, which is a much more demanding parameter, the quality is moderately degraded on smaller scales. (orig.)

  17. Multi-scale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilts, Thomas E.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Leitner, Phillip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Inman, Richard D.; Nussear, Ken E.; Esque, Todd C.

    2016-01-01

    Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land-use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multi-scale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods including graph theory, circuit theory and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this California threatened species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American Southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously-distributed habitat, and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

  18. Air Pollutants, Climate, and the Prevalence of Pediatric Asthma in Urban Areas of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juanjuan Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Prevalence of childhood asthma varies significantly among regions, while its reasons are not clear yet with only a few studies reporting relevant causes for this variation. Objective. To investigate the potential role of city-average levels of air pollutants and climatic factors in order to distinguish differences in asthma prevalence in China and explain their reasons. Methods. Data pertaining to 10,777 asthmatic patients were obtained from the third nationwide survey of childhood asthma in China’s urban areas. Annual mean concentrations of air pollutants and other climatic factors were obtained for the same period from several government departments. Data analysis was implemented with descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficient, and multiple regression analysis. Results. Pearson correlation analysis showed that the situation of childhood asthma was strongly linked with SO2, relative humidity, and hours of sunshine (p<0.05. Multiple regression analysis indicated that, among the predictor variables in the final step, SO2 was found to be the most powerful predictor variable amongst all (β=-19.572, p < 0.05. Furthermore, results had shown that hours of sunshine (β = -0.014, p < 0.05 was a significant component summary predictor variable. Conclusion. The findings of this study do not suggest that air pollutants or climate, at least in terms of children, plays a major role in explaining regional differences in asthma prevalence in China.

  19. Multiscale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilts, Thomas E; Weisberg, Peter J; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D; Inman, Richard D; Nussear, Kenneth E; Esque, Todd C

    2016-06-01

    Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multiscale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods, including graph theory, circuit theory, and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this threatened Californian species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously distributed habitat and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  20. The New York State Bird Conservation Area (BCA) Program: A Model for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. F. Burger; D. J. Adams; T. Post; L. Sommers; B. Swift

    2005-01-01

    The New York State Bird Conservation Area (BCA) Program, modeled after the National Audubon Society?s Important Bird Areas Program, is based on legislation signed by Governor Pataki in 1997. New York is the first state in the nation to enact such a program. The BCA Program seeks to provide a comprehensive, ecosystem approach to conserving birds and their habitats on...

  1. Analysis of long-term climate change on per capita water demand in urban versus suburban areas in the Portland metropolitan area, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parandvash, G. Hossein; Chang, Heejun

    2016-07-01

    We investigated the impacts of long-term climate variability and change on per capita water demand in urban and suburban service areas that have different degrees of development density in the Portland metropolitan area, USA. Together with historical daily weather and water production data, socioeconomic data such as population and unemployment rate were used to estimate daily per capita water demand in the two service areas. The structural time series regression model results show that the sensitivity of per capita water demand to both weather and unemployment rate variables is higher in suburban areas than in urban areas. This is associated with relatively higher proportional demand by the residential sector in the suburban area. The estimated coefficients of the historical demand model were used to project the mid-21st century (2035-2064) per capita water demand under three climate change scenarios that represent high (HadGEM2-ES), medium (MIROC5), and low (GFDL) climate changes. Without climate adaptation, compared to the historical period between 1983 and 2012, per capita water demand is projected to increase by 10.6% in the 2035-2064 period under the HadGEM2-ES in suburban areas, while per capita demand is projected to increase by 4.8% under the same scenario in urban areas. Our findings have implications for future urban water resource management and land use planning in the context of climate variability and change. A tight integration between water resource management and urban planning is needed for preparing for climate adaptation in municipal water planning and management.

  2. Co-evolution of hydrological components under climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Viola, F., E-mail: francesco.viola77@unipa.it; Francipane, A.; Caracciolo, D.; Pumo, D.; La Loggia, G.; Noto, L.V.

    2016-02-15

    ABSTRACT: The Mediterranean area is historically characterized by high human pressure on water resources. Today, while climate is projected to be modified in the future, through precipitation decrease and temperature increase, that jointly and non-linearly may affect runoff, concerns about water availability are increasing. For these reasons, quantitative assessment of future modifications in the mean annual water availability are important; likewise, the description of the future interannual variability of some hydrological components such as runoff and evapotranspiration are highly wished for water management and ecosystems dynamics analyses. This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration, exploring their probability density functions and their interdependence as functions of climatic changes. In order to do that, a parsimonious conceptual lumped model is here used. The model is forced by different future climate scenarios, generated through a weather generator based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) realizations. The use of the adopted hydrological model, under reliable stochastic future climate scenarios, allows to project future values of evapotranspiration and runoff in a probabilistic framework and, at the same time, the evaluation of their bivariate frequency distributions for changes through the Multivariate Kernel Density Estimation method. As a case study, a benchmark Mediterranean watershed has been proposed (Imera Meridionale, Italy). Results suggest a radical shift and shape modification of the annual runoff and evapotranspiration probability density functions. Possible implications and impacts on water resources management are here addressed and discussed. - Highlights: • This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration. • A simple conceptual hydrological model and GCMs realizations have been coupled. • Radical shift and shape

  3. Climate warming, marine protected areas and the ocean-scale integrity of coral reef ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas A J Graham

    Full Text Available Coral reefs have emerged as one of the ecosystems most vulnerable to climate variation and change. While the contribution of a warming climate to the loss of live coral cover has been well documented across large spatial and temporal scales, the associated effects on fish have not. Here, we respond to recent and repeated calls to assess the importance of local management in conserving coral reefs in the context of global climate change. Such information is important, as coral reef fish assemblages are the most species dense vertebrate communities on earth, contributing critical ecosystem functions and providing crucial ecosystem services to human societies in tropical countries. Our assessment of the impacts of the 1998 mass bleaching event on coral cover, reef structural complexity, and reef associated fishes spans 7 countries, 66 sites and 26 degrees of latitude in the Indian Ocean. Using Bayesian meta-analysis we show that changes in the size structure, diversity and trophic composition of the reef fish community have followed coral declines. Although the ocean scale integrity of these coral reef ecosystems has been lost, it is positive to see the effects are spatially variable at multiple scales, with impacts and vulnerability affected by geography but not management regime. Existing no-take marine protected areas still support high biomass of fish, however they had no positive affect on the ecosystem response to large-scale disturbance. This suggests a need for future conservation and management efforts to identify and protect regional refugia, which should be integrated into existing management frameworks and combined with policies to improve system-wide resilience to climate variation and change.

  4. Effects of high latitude protected areas on bird communities under rapid climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santangeli, Andrea; Rajasärkkä, Ari; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

    2017-06-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly becoming one of the main threats to biodiversity, along with other threats triggered by human-driven land-use change. Species are already responding to climate change by shifting their distributions polewards. This shift may create a spatial mismatch between dynamic species distributions and static protected areas (PAs). As protected areas represent one of the main pillars for preserving biodiversity today and in the future, it is important to assess their contribution in sheltering the biodiversity communities, they were designated to protect. A recent development to investigate climate-driven impacts on biological communities is represented by the community temperature index (CTI). CTI provides a measure of the relative temperature average of a community in a specific assemblage. CTI value will be higher for assemblages dominated by warm species compared with those dominated by cold-dwelling species. We here model changes in the CTI of Finnish bird assemblages, as well as changes in species densities, within and outside of PAs during the past four decades in a large boreal landscape under rapid change. We show that CTI has markedly increased over time across Finland, with this change being similar within and outside PAs and five to seven times slower than the temperature increase. Moreover, CTI has been constantly lower within than outside of PAs, and PAs still support communities, which show colder thermal index than those outside of PAs in the 1970s and 1980s. This result can be explained by the higher relative density of northern species within PAs than outside. Overall, our results provide some, albeit inconclusive, evidence that PAs may play a role in supporting the community of northern species. Results also suggest that communities are, however, shifting rapidly, both inside and outside of PAs, highlighting the need for adjusting conservation measures before it is too late. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Environmental resources of selected areas of Hawaii: Climate, ambient air quality, and noise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lombardi, D.A.; Blasing, T.J.; Easterly, C.E.; Reed, R.M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Hamilton, C.B. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1995-03-01

    This report has been prepared to make available and archive background scientific data and related information on climate, ambient air quality, and ambient noise levels collected during the preparation of the environmental impact statement (EIS) for Phases 3 and 4 of the Hawaii Geothermal Project (HGP) as defined by the state of Hawaii in its April 1989 proposal to Congress. The US Department of Energy (DOE) published a notice withdrawing its Notice of Intent to prepare the HGP-EIS. Since the state of Hawaii is no longer pursuing or planning to pursue the HGP, DOE considers the project to be terminated. The report presents a general description of the climate add air quality for the islands of Hawaii (henceforth referred to as Hawaii), Maui and Oahu. It also presents a literature review as baseline information on the health effects of sulfide. The scientific background data and related information is being made available for use by others in conducting future scientific research in these areas. This report describes the environmental resources present in the areas studied (i.e., the affected environment) and does not represent an assessment of environmental impacts.

  6. Environmental Resources of Selected Areas of Hawaii: Climate, Ambient Air Quality, and Noise (DRAFT)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lombardi, D.A.; Blasing, T.J.; Easterly, C.E.; Hamilton, C.B.

    1994-06-01

    This report has been prepared to make available and archive background scientific data and related information on climate, ambient air quality, and ambient noise levels collected during the preparation of the environmental impact statement (EIS) for Phases 3 and 4 of the Hawaii Geothermal Project (HGP) as defined by the state of hawaii in its April 1989 proposal to Congress. The US Department of Energy (DOE) published a notice in the Federal Register on May 17, 1994 withdrawing its Notice of Intent of February 14, 1992, to prepare the HGP-EIS. Since the state of Hawaii is no longer pursuing or planning to pursue the HGP, DOE considers the project to be terminated. The report presents a general description of the climate and air quality for the islands of Hawaii (henceforth referred to as Hawaii), Maui, and Oahu. It also presents a literature review as baseline information on the health effects of hydrogen sulfide. the scientific background data and related information is being made available for use by others in conducting future scientific research in these areas. This report describes the environmental resources present in the areas studied (i.e., the affected environment) and does not represent an assessment of environmental impacts.

  7. 45 CFR 308.3 - Optional program areas of review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... are trying to manage their resources to achieve the best performance possible. A program direction... to make the program more efficient and effective; (2) Efforts to improve client services; (3...

  8. `Climate wise` program at the Cosmair, Inc. Clark Manufacturing Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kraly, K.

    1997-12-31

    Viewgraphs from the conference presentation are reproduced in this paper, which outlines energy efficiency improvements and emissions reductions at a hair care products manufacturing facility. Program management focuses on employee involvement in internal audits, utility tracking, public relations, and preventative maintenance. Energy savings, cost savings, and emission reductions are presented for 1996 and projected to the year 2000. Other program aspects outlined include a summary of utility costs; solid waste; chilled water system modifications; lighting modifications; boiler upgrades; and heating, ventilating, and air conditioning improvements.

  9. Developing public awareness for climate change: Support from international research programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnes, F.J.; Clements, W.E.

    1998-12-31

    Developing regional and local public awareness and interest in global climate change has been mandated as an important step for increasing the ability for setting policy and managing the response to climate change. Research programs frequently have resources that could help reach regional or national goals for increasing the capacity for responding to climate change. To obtain these resources and target recipients appropriately, research investigators need clear statements of national and regional strategies or priorities as a guide. One such program, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program, has a requirement to develop local or regional education enrichment programs at their observational sites in the central US, the tropical western Pacific (TWP), and on the north slope of alaska. ARM's scientific goals will result in a flow of technical data and as well as technical expertise that can assist with regional needs to increase the technical resources needed to address climate change issues. Details of the ARM education program in the Pacific will be presented.

  10. NCRP Vision for the Future and Program Area Committee Activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boice, John D

    2017-02-01

    The National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) believes that the most critical need for the nation in radiation protection is to train, engage, and retain radiation professionals for the future. Not only is the pipeline shrinking, but for some areas there is no longer a pipe! When the call comes to respond, there may be no one to answer the phone! The NCRP "Where are the Radiation Professionals?" initiative, Council Committee (CC) 2, and this year's annual meeting are to focus our efforts to find solutions and not just reiterate the problems. Our next major initiative is CC 1, where the NCRP is making recommendations for the United States on all things dealing with radiation protection. Our last publication was NCRP Report No. 116, Limitation of Exposure to Ionizing Radiation, in 1993-time for an update. NCRP has seven active Program Area Committees on biology and epidemiology, operational concerns, emergency response and preparedness, medicine, environmental issues and waste management, dosimetry, and communications. A major scientific research initiative is the Million Person Study of Low Dose Radiation Health Effects. It includes workers from the Manhattan Project, nuclear weapons test participants (atomic veterans), industrial radiographers, and early medical workers such as radiologists and technologists. This research will answer the one major gap in radiation risk evaluation: what are the health effects when the exposure occurs gradually over time? Other cutting edge initiatives include a re-evaluation of science behind recommendations for lens of the eye dose limits, recommendations for emergency responders on dosimetry after a major radiological incident, guidance to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration with regard to possible central nervous system effects from galactic cosmic rays (the high energy, high mass particles bounding through space), re-evaluating the population exposure to medical radiation (NCRP Report No

  11. The Guayas Estuary and sea level corrections to calculate flooding areas for climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreano, H. R.; Paredes, N.

    2011-12-01

    The Guayas estuary is the inner area of the Gulf of Guayaquil, it holds a water body of around 5000 km2 and the Puna island divides the water flow in two main streams : El Morro and Estero Salado Channel (length: 90 Km.) and Jambeli and Rio Guayas Channel (length: 125km.). The geometry of the estuarine system with the behavior of the tidal wave (semidiurnal) makes tidal amplitude higher at the head than at the mouth, whereas the wave crest at the head is delayed from one and a half to two hours from that at the mouth and sea level recorded by gages along the estuary are all different because of the wave propagation and mean sea level (msl) calculated for each gage show differences with that of La Libertad which is the base line for all altitudes on land (zero level). A leveling and calculations were made to correct such differences in a way that all gages (msl) records were linked to La Libertad and this in turn allowed a better estimates of flooding areas and draw them on topographic maps where zero level corresponds to the mean sea level at La Libertad. The procedure and mathematical formulation could be applied to any estuary or coastal area and it is a useful tool to calculate such areas especially when impacts are on people or capital goods and related to climate change scenarios.

  12. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2017-10-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  13. Climate Variability and Industrial-Suburban Heat Environment in a Mediterranean Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppina A. Giorgio

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The Urban Heat Island (UHI phenomenon prevalently concerns industrialized countries. It consists of a significant increase in temperatures, especially in industrialized and urbanized areas, in particular, during extreme warm periods like summer. This paper explores the climate variability of temperatures in two stations located in Matera city (Southern Italy, evaluating the increase in temperatures from 1988 to 2015. Moreover, the Corine Land Covers (1990–2000–2006–2012 were used in order to investigate the effect of land use on temperatures. The results obtained confirm the prevalence of UHI phenomena for industrialized areas, highlighting the proposal that the spreading of settlements may further drive these effects on the microclimate. In particular, the presence of industrial structures, even in rural areas, shows a clear increase in summer maximum temperatures. This does not occur in the period before 2000, probably due to the absence of the industrial settlement. On the contrary, from 2000 to 2015, changes are not relevant, but the maximum temperatures have always been higher than in the suburban area (station localized in green zone during daylight hours.

  14. Storm Peak Laboratory 5th-6th Grade Climate and Weather Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCubbin, I. B.; Hallar, A. G.

    2008-12-01

    Storm Peak Laboratory (SPL) has created a place-based elementary school program, which has been implemented at five elementary schools in Northwest Colorado. Real understanding, not factual recall, is the primary goal and developing a desire to be lifelong learners in science is a secondary goal. The specific objectives of the program include the following: 1) Develop a weather and climate curriculum that teaches skills required by Colorado Student Assessment Program (CSAP). 2) Provide a hands-on place-based educational experience where students have an opportunity to use scientific equipment. 3) Provide students a three-day program that consists of an introduction, field program, and follow-up to help students grasp concepts and apply them to other school studies. 4) Provide all participating students with understanding of climate and weather 5) Build foundations for students to understand climate change. 6) Disseminate to alpine regions across the Western US, potentially impacting thousands of students that will experience the impacts of climate change during their lifetime. The SPL program spans three days for each school and includes five elementary schools. During the first day, a scientist and educators from SPL visit each classroom for two hours to introduce the concepts of climate and weather as well as teach students how to use scientific equipment. During the field program on the second day, students measure and record information about temperature, pressure, relative humidity, wind speed, and particle concentration while they travel to SPL via the gondola and chair lifts (in winter) or 4WD Suburbans (in fall). Once at the laboratory, students will meet with both SPL scientists and educators to tour the facility, discuss SPL research activities, and explore application of these activities to their curriculum. An alternative winter snowshoe program at the top of the gondola is offered to students who do not ski, where students have a program on snow

  15. Climate Ready Estuaries Partner Projects Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    CRE partners with the National Estuary Program to develop climate change projects in coastal U.S. areas, such as bays and harbors; to develop adaptation action plans, identify climate impacts and indicators, and more. This map shows project locations.

  16. The Climate/Team Effectiveness Survey: Another Tool for the Program Management Office Team

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-01

    unhindered feedback so leader - ship has fact-based information from which to chart a “new” course leading to increased productivity, higher morale...Defense AT&L: March-April 2013 6 The Climate/Team Effectiveness Survey Another ‘Tool’ for the Program Management Office Team Capt. Fred...Hepler, USN Mike Kotzian Duane Mallicoat The challenges facing an acquisition Program Management Office (PMO) team are end-less. With the charge to

  17. Lake and lake-related drainage area parameters for site investigation program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blomqvist, P.; Brunberg, A.K. [Uppsala Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Limnology; Brydsten, L [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science

    2000-09-01

    In this paper, a number of parameters of importance to a preliminary determination of the ecological function of lakes are presented. The choice of parameters have been made with respect to a model for the determination of the nature conservation values of lakes which is currently being developed by the authors of this report, but is also well suited for a general description of the lake type and the functioning of the inherent ecosystem. The parameters have been divided into five groups: (1) The location of the object relative important gradients in the surrounding nature; (2) The lake catchment area and its major constituents; (3) The lake morphometry; (4) The lake ecosystem; (5) Human-induced damages to the lake ecosystem. The first two groups, principally based on the climate, hydrology, geology and vegetation of the catchment area represent parameters that can be used to establish the rarity and representativity of the lake, and will in the context of site investigation program be used as a basis for generalisation of the results. The third group, the lake morphometry parameters, are standard parameters for the outline of sampling programmes and for calculations of the physical extension of different key habitats in the system. The fourth group, the ecosystem of the lake, includes physical, chemical and biological parameters required for determination of the stratification pattern, light climate, influence from the terrestrial ecosystem of the catchment area, trophic status, distribution of key habitats, and presence of fish and rare fauna and flora in the lake. In the context of site investigation program, the parameters in these two groups will be used for budget calculations of the flow of energy and material in the system. The fifth group, finally, describes the degree on anthropogenic influence on the ecosystem and will in the context of site investigation programmes be used to judge eventual malfunctioning within the entire, or parts of, the lake

  18. Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Sebastian; Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts.

  19. Climatic Changes and Evaluation of Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon Region- A project of GRENE-ei programs in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizoguchi, M.; Matsumoto, J.; Takahashi, H. G.; Tanaka, K.; Kuwagata, T.

    2015-12-01

    It is important to predict climate change correctly in regional scale and to build adaptation measures and mitigation measures in the Asian monsoon region where more than 60 % of the world's population are living. The reliability of climate change prediction model is evaluated by the reproducibility of past climate in general. However, because there are many developing countries in the Asian monsoon region, adequate documentations of past climate which are needed to evaluate the climate reproducibility have not been prepared. In addition, at present it is difficult to get information on wide-area agricultural meteorological data which affect the growth of agricultural crops when considering the impact on agriculture of climate. Therefore, we have started a research project entitled "Climatic changes and evaluation of their effects on agriculture in Asian monsoon region (CAAM)" under the research framework of the Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) for the Japanese fiscal years from 2011 to 2015 supported by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). This project aims to improve the reliability of future climate prediction and to develop the information platform which will be useful to design adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture against the predicted climatic changes in Asian monsoon regions. What is GRENE?Based on the new growth strategy which was approved by the Cabinet of Japan in June 2010, Green Network of Excellence program (GRENE) has started under MEXT from FY 2011. The objectives of this program are that the domestic leading universities work together strategically and promote a comprehensive human resource development and research of the highest level in the world while sharing research resources and research goals. In the field of environmental information, it is required that universities and research institutions, which are working on issues such as adaptation to climate change, cooperate to

  20. Citizen radiation monitoring program for the TMI area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baratta, A.J.; Gricar, B.G.; Jester, W.A.

    1981-07-01

    The purpose of the program was to develop a system for citizens to independently measure radiation levels in and around their communities. This report describes the process by which the Program was developed and operated. It also presents the methods used to select and train the citizens in making and interpreting the measurements. The test procedures used to select the equipment for the program are described as are the results of the testing. Finally, the actual monitoring results are discussed along with the citizens' reactions to the program.

  1. URBAN AND ARCHITECTURAL SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS USE ENERGY HOT CLIMATE AREAS IN ALGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Labdi DARAF

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The large increase in population leads to an increase in rates of conventional consumption of energy, especially electrical energy of the same percentage and more. As a result, the focus is on the global search for ways to preserve the traditional energy sources and rational use. In recent years, Algeria has adopted a construction policy to meet the needs of the increasing demands on the field of housing by massive housing project represented in the neighborhood groups because of their economic characteristics in the provision of real estate. In recent years, the rates of energy demand have increased with the widespread use of air conditioners, despite the presence of the natural solutions to reduce this kind of problems. Generally, The Algerian climate considered as a hot one, which is characterized by the drought. Therefore the construction should requires such properties and elements suitable for this climate. Those strategies and trends may based on the return to techniques and mechanisms that were used in the traditional environmental construction, which is considered as a basic reference that led to the development of many solutions and technologies for sustainable development benefiting from the accumulation of the previous civilizations over centuries. The aim of this research is to determine the curriculum calendar of the thermal performance for the housing in the collective areas, hot semi-arid, to set standards may used in evaluating the prevailing performance in the architectural planning and design for residential neighborhoods which reflected on the population in terms of the consumption energy.

  2. Climate network suggests enhanced El Ni\\~no global impacts in localized areas

    CERN Document Server

    Fan, Jingfang; Ashkenazy, Yosef; Havlin, Shlomo

    2016-01-01

    We construct directed and weighted climate networks based on near surface air temperature to investigate the global impacts of El Nino and La Nina. We find that regions which are characterized by higher positive or negative network in weighted links, are exhibiting stronger correlations with the El Nino basin and are warmer or cooler during El Nino or La Nina periods. These stronger in-weighted activities are found to be concentrated in localized areas, as compared to non-El Nino periods, whereas a large fraction of the globe is not influenced by the events. The regions of localized activity vary from one El Nino (La Nina) event to another; still some El Nino (La Nina) events are more similar to each other. We quantify this similarity using network community structure. The results and methodology reported here may be used to improve the understanding and prediction of El Nino or La Nina events and also may be applied in the investigation of other climate variables.

  3. New Areas for Preventive Programing: Sudden Infant Death Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowman, Joseph

    Crisis intervention programs for persons experiencing the sudden death of family members or surviving natural disasters have been advocated as methods of primary prevention, although few have actually been implemented. A program utilizing nurses to deliver grief intervention to parents losing a baby to Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) was…

  4. Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, Fatih; Yucel, Ismail

    2015-09-01

    This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.

  5. Effects of Climate Change on the Yield and Cropping Area of Major Food Crops: A Case of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Ruhul Amin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The crops that we grow for food need specific climatic conditions to show better performance in view of economic yield. A changing climate could have both beneficial and harmful effects on crops. Keeping the above view in mind, this study is undertaken to investigate the impacts of climate change (viz. changes in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, humidity and sunshine on the yield and cropping area of four major food crops (viz. Aus rice, Aman rice, Boro rice and wheat in Bangladesh. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard error (HAC and feasible generalized least square (FGLS methods were used to determine the climate-crop interrelations using national level time series data for the period of 1972–2010. Findings revealed that the effects of all the climate variables have had significant contributions to the yield and cropping area of major food crops with distinct variation among them. Maximum temperature statistically significantly affected all the food crops’ yield except Aus rice. Maximum temperature also insignificantly affected cropping area of all the crops. Minimum temperature insignificantly affected Aman rice but benefited other three crops’ yield and cropping area. Rainfall significantly benefitted cropping area of Aus rice, but significantly affected both yield and cropping area of Aman rice. Humidity statistically positively contributed to the yield of Aus and Aman rice but, statistically, negatively influenced the cropping area of Aus rice. Sunshine statistically significantly benefitted only Boro rice yield. Overall, maximum temperature adversely affected yield and cropping area of all the major food crops and rainfall severely affected Aman rice only. Concerning the issue of climate change and ensuring food security, the respective authorities thus should give considerable attention to the generation, development and extension of drought (all major food crops and flood (particularly Aman

  6. Environmentally Sensitive Areas Surveys Program threatened and endangered species survey: Progress report. Environmental Restoration Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King, A.L.; Awl, D.J.; Gabrielsen, C.A.

    1994-09-01

    The Endangered Species Act (originally passed in 1973) is a Federal statute that protects both animal and plant species. The Endangered Species Act identifies species which are, without careful management, in danger of becoming extinct and species that are considered threatened. Along with the designation of threatened or endangered, the Endangered Species Act provides for the identification of appropriate habitat for these species. Since 1993, the United States Department of Energy`s (DOE) Environmental Restoration (ER) Program has supported a program to survey the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) for threatened and endangered species. The Environmentally Sensitive Areas Surveys Program initiated vascular plant surveys during fiscal year 1993 and vertebrate animal surveys during fiscal year 1994 to determine the baseline condition of threatened and endangered species on the ORR at the present time. Data collected during these surveys are currently aiding Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) Remedial Investigations on the ORR. They also provide data for ER and Waste Management decision documents, ensure that decisions have technical and legal defensibility, provide a baseline for ensuring compliance with principal legal requirements and will increase public confidence in DOE`s adherence to all related environmental resources rules, laws, regulations, and instructions. This report discusses the progress to date of the threatened and endangered species surveys of the ORR.

  7. Impacts of climate change and anthropization on groundwater resources in the Nouakchott urban area (coastal Mauritania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamed, Ahmed-Salem; Leduc, Christian; Marlin, Christelle; Wagué, Oumar; Sidi Cheikh, Mohamed-Ahmed

    2017-10-01

    Declining groundwater resources in semi-arid areas are often cited because of anthropization and climate change. This is not the case in Nouakchott (Mauritania) where the water level has risen by 1 to 2 m over the last 40 years in parallel with urban expansion (+1 million inhabitants in 60 years). Using former and new data, primarily water table measurements and chemical indicators (major ions, bromide, 18O, 2H), we show that the groundwater level rise is mainly a consequence of the rapid population growth in the Nouakchott area, while the global sea level rise only has a limited impact. The increased supply of domestic water (currently 120,000 m3/day) and the lack of waste water networks have added large amounts of water to the Quaternary aquifer. In this metropolis where 60% of the total area is at an elevation of less than 1 m asl, the rise in the groundwater level has dramatic consequences, including the abandonment of flooded districts, and the emergence of new diseases.

  8. Changes in lake area in response to thermokarst processes and climate in Old Crow Flats, Yukon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lantz, T. C.; Turner, K. W.

    2015-03-01

    Growing evidence indicates that lake-dominated ecosystems at high latitudes are undergoing significant hydrological changes. Research examining these changes is complicated because both thermokarst and climatic processes likely influence lake dynamics. To examine the relative impacts of these processes in permafrost landscapes, we investigated the dynamics of lake area and number in Old Crow Flats (OCF), Yukon using historical air photos and satellite imagery. Between 1951 and 2007, OCF experienced a decline of ~6000 ha in total lake area but gained 232 lakes. Close to half (49%) of the difference in lake area was driven by the rapid and persistent drainage of 38 large lakes. These catastrophic drainages were associated with new or enlarged outlet channels, resulted in the formation of numerous residual ponds, and were likely driven by thermokarst processes. Our analysis shows that catastrophic lake drainages have become more than 5 times more frequent in recent decades. These changes are likely related to the impacts of increased temperature and precipitation on thermokarst processes. Fifty-nine of the 170 intensively studied lakes showed either large bidirectional fluctuations or gradual cumulative declines. These changes affected a much smaller portion of OCF and were likely driven by interactions between increased precipitation and temperature and individual catchment characteristics. To anticipate landscape-scale changes in these systems, and assess their impact on hydrology, wildlife habitat, and carbon storage, field research is required to better characterize the mechanisms responsible for changes.

  9. Performance evaluation of a non-hydrostatic regional climate model over the Mediterranean/Black Sea area and climate projections for the XXI century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercogliano, Paola; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Montesarchio, Myriam; Zollo, Alessandra Lucia

    2013-04-01

    In the framework of the Work Package 4 (Developing integrated tools for environmental assessment) of PERSEUS Project, high resolution climate simulations have been performed, with the aim of furthering knowledge in the field of climate variability at regional scale, its causes and impacts. CMCC is a no profit centre whose aims are the promotion, research coordination and scientific activities in the field of climate changes. In this work, we show results of numerical simulation performed over a very wide area (13W-46E; 29-56N) at spatial resolution of 14 km, which includes the Mediterranean and Black Seas, using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. It is a non-hydrostatic model for the simulation of atmospheric processes, developed by the DWD-Germany for weather forecast services; successively, the model has been updated by the CLM-Community, in order to develop climatic applications. It is the only documented numerical model system in Europe designed for spatial resolutions down to 1 km with a range of applicability encompassing operational numerical weather prediction, regional climate modelling the dispersion of trace gases and aerosol and idealised studies and applicable in all regions of the world for a wide range of available climate simulations from global climate and NWP models. Different reasons justify the development of a regional model: the first is the increasing number of works in literature asserting that regional models have also the features to provide more detailed description of the climate extremes, that are often more important then their mean values for natural and human systems. The second one is that high resolution modelling shows adequate features to provide information for impact assessment studies. At CMCC, regional climate modelling is a part of an integrated simulation system and it has been used in different European and African projects to provide qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the hydrogeological and public health risks

  10. 34 CFR 657.1 - What is the Foreign Language and Area Studies Fellowships Program?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 34 Education 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What is the Foreign Language and Area Studies... (Continued) OFFICE OF POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION FOREIGN LANGUAGE AND AREA STUDIES FELLOWSHIPS PROGRAM General § 657.1 What is the Foreign Language and Area Studies Fellowships Program? Under...

  11. The American Meteorological Society Education Program Model for Climate Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinbeck, R. S.; Moran, J. M.; Geer, I. W.; Hopkins, E. J.

    2007-12-01

    A guiding principle of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Education Program is that public scientific literacy is most effectively achieved through systemic change in the classroom. The AMS, partnering with NOAA, NSF, NASA, the US Navy, and SUNY Brockport, aims for greater public scientific literacy through its successful distance learning programs that convey to pre-college teachers and undergraduates the fundamentals of meteorology, oceanography, and hydrology. The AMS DataStreme teacher-enhancement courses (Atmosphere, Water in the Earth System, and Ocean) have changed the way thousands of pre-college teachers teach and hundreds of thousands of students learn. Furthermore, teachers trained in this program are positioned to contribute to local and statewide curriculum reform. The AMS Online Weather Studies and Online Ocean Studies courses are providing tens of thousands of college undergraduates with engaging and highly motivational learning experiences. DataStreme courses are offered locally and feature mentoring of teacher participants whereas Online undergraduate courses are licensed by AMS for offering by colleges and universities. Integrated components of the AMS model are course website, investigations manual, and customized textbook. A portion of twice-weekly investigations is written to a near real-time situation and posted on the course website. Through its extensive experience with the DataStreme/Online programs, the AMS Education Program is now uniquely poised to assume a national leadership role in climate education by applying its proven teaching/learning model to climate education at the pre-college and undergraduate levels. The AMS model is ideally suited for delivering to teachers and students nationwide the basic understandings and enduring ideas of climate science and the role of the individual and society in climate variability and change. The AMS teaching/learning model incorporates an Earth system perspective, is problem focused, and

  12. Adaptation in Practice: How Managers of Nature Conservation Areas in Eastern England are Responding to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Macgregor, Nicholas A.; van Dijk, Nikki

    2014-01-01

    Although good general principles for climate change adaptation in conservation have been developed, it is proving a challenge to translate them into more detailed recommendations for action. To improve our understanding of what adaptation might involve in practice, we investigated how the managers of conservation areas in eastern England are considering climate change. We used a written questionnaire and semi-structured interviews to collect information from managers of a range of different c...

  13. POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PLANT DIVERSITY OF HILLY AREAS OF AZAD KASHMIR AND THEIR MITIGATION: A REVIEW

    OpenAIRE

    K. F. Akbar

    2017-01-01

    Azad Kashmir has variety of mountain ecosystems which are rich in floral and faunal diversity. These ecosystems are fragile and are under stress due to various natural and anthropogenic pressures. Mountain ecosystems of Azad Kashmir are more vulnerable to global warming and are expected to show its impacts rapidly. Climate change may cause major changes in distribution ranges of different vegetation types. As a result of climate change, the area of three vegetation groups (alpine, grassland/a...

  14. Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Semenov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The shrinking Arctic sea ice cover observed during the last decades is probably the clearest manifestation of ongoing climate change. While climate models in general reproduce the sea ice retreat in the Arctic during the 20th century and simulate further sea ice area loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic forcing, the models suffer from large biases and the results exhibit considerable spread. Here, we compare results from the two last generations of climate models, CMIP3 and CMIP5, with respect to total and regional Arctic sea ice change. Different characteristics of sea ice area (SIA in March and September have been analysed for the Entire Arctic, Central Arctic and Barents Sea. Further, the sensitivity of SIA to changes in Northern Hemisphere (NH temperature is investigated and dynamical links between SIA and some atmospheric variability modes are assessed.CMIP3 (SRES A1B and CMIP5 (RCP8.5 models not only simulate a coherent decline of the Arctic SIA but also depict consistent changes in the SIA seasonal cycle. The spatial patterns of SIC variability improve in CMIP5 ensemble, most noticeably in summer when compared to HadISST1 data. A better simulation of summer SIA in the Entire Arctic by CMIP5 models is accompanied by a slightly increased bias for winter season in comparison to CMIP3 ensemble. SIA in the Barents Sea is strongly overestimated by the majority of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models, and projected SIA changes are characterized by a high uncertainty. Both CMIP ensembles depict a significant link between the SIA and NH temperature changes indicating that a part of inter-ensemble SIA spread comes from different temperature sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing. The results suggest that, in general, a sensitivity of SIA to external forcing is enhanced in CMIP5 models. Arctic SIA interannual variability in the end of the 20th century is on average well simulated by both ensembles. To the end of the 21st century, September

  15. Global Warming: The Instability of Desert Climate is Enhancing in the Northwest Area in China: A Case Study in the Desert Area in Northwestern China

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao-Feng Chang; Shu-Juan Zhu; Fu-Gui Han; Sheng-Nnian Zhong; Qiang-Qiang Wang; Jian-Hui Zhang

    2013-01-01

    To disclose the relation between the sandstorms change and the temperature changes, a case study in the desert area in northwestern china is investigated. The results showed that: the instability of climate in Minqin desert area is enhancing in the arid desert region in northwest China. Mainly as follows: Variation the annual extreme maximum temperature increasing. Variation of extreme minimum temperature also an increasing trend. Average visibility of sandstorms significantly reduced and the...

  16. Stillwater Wildlife Management Area Annual Water Management Program [1976

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The Water Management Program summarizes last year's water receipts, distribution, and general marsh conditions. Using past records of waterfowl use and productivity...

  17. Stillwater Wildlife Management Area Annual Water management Program [1974

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The Water Management Program summarizes last year's -water receipts, distribution and general marsh conditions . Anticipated water flows are made from cooperative...

  18. US country studies program: Support for climate change studies, national plans, and technology assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes the objectives of the next phase of the U.S. Country Studies Program which was launched in support of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The next phases of this program aim to: assist countries in preparing Climate Change Action plans; support technology assessments and development of technology initiatives; enhance exchange of information and expertise in support of FCCC. The program offers support for these processes in the form of handbooks which have been published to aid in preparing action plans, and to provide information on methane, forestry, and energy technologies. In addition an array of training workshops have been and are scheduled to offer hands on instruction to participants, expert advice is available from trained personnel, and modeling tools are available to aid in development of action plans.

  19. FFY 2012-2015 transportation improvement program for the Dubuque, Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin urbanized area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-18

    "A Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) is the Dubuque Metropolitan Area : Transportation Study (DMATS) 4- year financial implementation program listing of : transportation improvement projects eligible for Federal funding. It is DMATS : transpor...

  20. Engaging Students in Climate Change Science and Communication through a Multi-disciplinary Study Abroad Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, L. A.; Polk, J.; Strenecky, B.

    2014-12-01

    The implications of the climate change phenomenon are far-reaching, and will impact every person on Earth. These problems will be complex, and will require leaders well-versed in interdisciplinary learning and international understanding. To employ a multi-disciplinary approach to studying the impact climate change is having in the world in which we live, a team of 57 Western Kentucky University (WKU) faculty, staff, and students participated in a study abroad program to seven ports in the North Sea and North Atlantic, including three ports in Iceland, onboard the Semester at Sea ship, MV Explorer. This program combined interdisciplinary learning, service learning, and international understanding toward the goal of preparing the leaders of tomorrow with the skills to address climate change challenges. Together, the group learned how climate change affects the world from varied academic perspectives, and how more often than not these perspectives are closely interrelated. Courses taught during the experience related to climate change science and communication, economics, future trends, and K-12 education. Each student also participated in a The $100 Solution™ service-learning course. While in port, each class engaged in a discipline-specific activities related to the climate change topic, while at sea students participated in class lectures, engaged in shipboard lectures by international experts in their respective fields, and participated in conversations with lifelong learners onboard the ship. A culminating point of the study abroad experience was a presentation by the WKU students to over 100 persons from the University of Akureyri in Akureyri, Iceland, representatives of neighboring Icelandic communities, environmental agencies, and tourism bureaus about what they had learned about climate change during their travels. By forging this relationship, students were able to share their knowledge, which in turn gave them a deeper understanding of the issues they

  1. Integrating Other Areas of Learning into the Language Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tisdell, Mariel

    1996-01-01

    Presents modules and learning activities taken from other learning areas useful in the Australian second-language classroom. Argues that general and specific subject areas can stimulate dialogue and interest as well as cultural and social awareness, provide new language structures, enrich vocabulary and extend the use of idiomatic expressions, and…

  2. Generalized biomass and leaf area allometric equations for European tree species incorporating stand structure, tree age and climate

    OpenAIRE

    FORRESTER DAVID; TACHAUER ELOISE; ANNIGHOEFER PETER; BARBEITO IGNACIO; PRETZSCH HANS; RUIZ-PEINADO RICARDO; STARK HENDRIK; VACCHIANO GIORGIO; ZLATANOV TZVETAN; CHAKRABORTY TAMALIKA; SAHA SOMID; SILESHI GUDETA W.

    2017-01-01

    Biomass and leaf area equations are often required to assess or model forest productivity, carbon stocks and other ecosystem services. These factors are influenced by climate, age and stand structural attributes including stand density and tree species diversity or species composition. However, such covariates are rarely included in biomass and leaf area equations. We reviewed the literature and built a database of biomass and leaf area equations for 24 European tree species and 3 introduced ...

  3. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Area Affected by Waterlogging and Saline Groundwater and Ecohydrology Management in Northeast Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phayom Saraphirom

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling approach was employed to predict potential impact of climate change on waterlogging and salinity distribution with the ecohydrology options for land management under the projected climate conditions in Huai Khamriam subwatershed in the northeastern region, Thailand. The prediction was simulated using the variable density groundwater model SEAWAT supported with recharge estimation model HELP3 under the projected weather data from PRECIS RCM scenario A2. As the result of the higher precipitation simulated by PRECIS RCM scenario A2, the predicted groundwater recharge was likely to be higher in the middle of this century onward. The areas affected by shallow saline groundwater were found to increase with the climate change scenario as well as for the base case. Based on scenario simulation, climate change did not have substantial impact on salinity distribution, but it was significant impact to the expansion of waterlogging areas. Management option using ecohydrology simulation approach was performed to reduce the recharge water to groundwater system, which consequently minimizes the impact of the higher precipitation in the future. The results indicated that establishment of the fast growing tree integrated with the shallow groundwater interception in the recharge areas could reduce the expansion of waterlogging and salinised areas under the climate change condition.

  4. Geomorphic interaction among climate, sea levels and karst groundwater: the Taranto area (South of Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spilotro, Giuseppe; Fidelibus, Maria Dolores; Argentiero, Ilenia; Pellicani, Roberta; Parisi, Alessandro; Di Modugno, Antonella

    2017-04-01

    The area of Taranto (Apulia region, Italy) has an extraordinary environmental and landscape value, which derives from its specific geological, geomorphological and hydrogeological conditions: they represent the effect of a complex mechanism of interaction in the geological time among the sea, its level variations and stands driven by climate changes, karst groundwater and the geo lithological frame. The knowledge of this interaction spans over two very different time duration: the first is subsequent to the sedimentary pleistocenic deposition and diagenesis and lasts until the late Holocene; the second spans over a more limited time durations, from the LIA until today, and its knowledge is mainly based on hystorical topographic records and reports. The general geological and stratigraphical setting is represented by marine deposits, which fill the Bradanic Trough, shaped in the upper part as marine terraces bordering the W and SW side of the Murgian carbonate platform (Apulia, South of Italy) as well. This latter constitutes an important karst hydro-structure, fed by precipitation, bordered on the opposite side of the Bradanic Trough by the Adriatic Sea. Fresh groundwater hosted in the huge coastal aquifer freely flows towards the Adriatic coast, while on the opposite W-NW side, the continuous confinement by the impermeable filling of the trough, forces the underground drainage of the aquifer towards the Ionian Sea just in the Taranto area. The overall flow rate of the groundwater through submarine and subaerial coastal springs, according to the current sea level, is significant and currently estimated in about 18 m3/sec. Climate changes have forced over geological time, but also in shorter periods, sea level changes and stands, consequently correlated to groundwater levels. This allowed genesis of selected karst levels, of regional extension, both at the surface or underground, which arise as typical forms, namely polje and karst plane inland, terraces on the sea

  5. Impact of future urban growth on regional climate changes in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyunsu; Kim, Yoo-Keun; Song, Sang-Keun; Lee, Hwa Woon

    2016-11-15

    The influence of changes in future urban growth (e.g., land use changes) on the future climate variability in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA), Korea was evaluated using the WRF model and an urban growth model (SLEUTH). The land use changes in the study area were simulated using the SLEUTH model under three different urban growth scenarios: (1) current development trends scenario (SC 1), (2) managed development scenario (SC 2) and (3) ecological development scenario (SC 3). The maximum difference in the ratio of urban growth between SC 1 and SC 3 (SC 1 - SC 3) for 50years (2000-2050) was approximately 6.72%, leading to the largest differences (0.01°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively) in the mean air temperature at 2m (T2) and wind speed at 10m (WS10). From WRF-SLEUTH modeling, the effects of future urban growth (or future land use changes) in the SMA are expected to result in increases in the spatial mean T2 and WS10 of up to 1.15°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively, possibly due to thermal circulation caused by the thermal differences between urban and rural regions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Optimization of hybrid PV-wind systems in six climatic areas of the Madeira Archipelago (Portugal)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magro, C. [Governo Regional da Madeira, Funchal (Portugal). Lab. Regional de Engenharia Civil; Vazquez M; Izquierdo, P. [Vigo Univ., ETSI Industriales (Spain). Solar Energy Lab.

    2008-07-01

    This paper focuses on the optimization of hybrid off-grid PV-Wind systems in six climatic areas of the Madeira archipelago (Portugal), both from the technical and economical points of view. The areas are characterized by the variables recorded in six corresponding meteorological stations during the period 2002-2005. To facilitate the comparison of the systems, energy productions are given as specific values related to the square meter of horizontal land occupied by the systems. The DC PV electric generation per square meter of module (and horizontal land) in the sites of the stations was obtained in a parent paper. The wind electric generation is obtained from the wind daily data of the stations and considering an instantaneous Weibull distribution. The results show that, from the technical point of view, the optimum percentage of PV power in the PV-Wind hybrid systems varies from 44 % to 91%, with a renewable energy coverage in the range of 91-93 percent of the total, and that, from the economic point of view, the best hybrid solutions are hundred percent PV. (orig.)

  7. An overview of the Yucca Mountain Global/Regional Climate Modeling Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandoval, R.P. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Behl, Y.K. [GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Thompson, S.L. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1992-01-10

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a site characterization plan (SCP) to collect detailed information on geology, geohydrology, geochemistry, geoengineering, hydrology, climate, and meteorology (collectively referred to as ``geologic information``) of the Yucca Mountain site. This information will be used to determine if a mined geologic disposal system (MGDS) capable of isolating high-level radioactive waste without adverse effects to public health and safety over 10,000 years, as required by regulations 40 CFR Part 191 and 10 CFR Part 60, could be constructed at the Yucca Mountain site. Forecasts of future climates conditions for the Yucca Mountain area will be based on both empirical and numerical techniques. The empirical modeling is based on the assumption that future climate change will follow past patterns. In this approach, paleclimate records will be analyzed to estimate the nature, timing, and probability of occurrence of certain climate states such as glacials and interglacials over the next 10,000 years. For a given state, key climate parameters such as precipitation and temperature will be assumed to be the same as determined from the paleoclimate data. The numerical approach, which is the primary focus of this paper, involves the numerical solution of basic equations associated with atmospheric motions. This paper describes these equations and the strategy for solving them to predict future climate conditions around Yucca Mountain.

  8. Climate change in the Ak-Shiyrak massive area and its impact on glaciers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. A. Podrezova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The data from Tien Shan meteorological station (3614  m  a.s.l. were used to analyze the climate changes (the air temperature and precipitation in the area of glaciation of the Ak-Shyirak massive over the period of 1930–2015 years. In 1999, this station had been moved to a new position, and for the later years, data on the air temperature and precipitation were brought to homogeneous series by methods of differences and correlations. Coefficients of linear trends of annual/monthly values of temperatures and precipitation sums were calculated for the following three periods: 1930–1975 – stable global climate (b1; 1976–2015 – global warming  (b2, and 1930–2015  – period of instrumental observations as a whole  (b3. In addition, for the practical use, we calculated climatic values of the temperature and precipitation for different standard time intervals within the period under investigation. It was revealed that the average annual temperatures in the region rose over the years at the rate of 0,188 °C/10 years, while in 1930–1975 years this rate was 3,5 times smaller (b1 = 0,110 °C/10 years than in 1976–2015 years (b2 = 0,375 °C/10 years. The highest rates were recorded in February (b2 = 1,043 °C/10 years and March (b2 = 0,855 °C/10 years. Precipitations are known to have significant inter-annual variability (especially in 1975–2000, so only the b3 trend is used as the rep‑ resentative one, obtained over the whole period of observations. During this period, the annual sum of pre‑ cipitation decreased at the rate of −7,88 mm/10 years, but during the seasons both, decreasing and increas‑ ing in precipitation, was observed within limits of changes of the trends: from −4,420 mm/10 years (July to 0,743 mm/10 years (February. These climate changes were compared with decrease of the glaciation param‑ eters in the Ak-Shyirak massive for 1943–1976 and 1977–2003 periods, in

  9. The Use of Woodland Products to Cope with Climate Variability in Communal Areas in Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lotte S. Woittiez

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Common lands provide smallholder farmers in Africa with firewood, timber, and feed for livestock, and they are used to complement human diets through the collection of edible nontimber forest products (NTFPs. Farmers have developed coping mechanisms, which they deploy at times of climatic shocks. We aimed to analyze the importance of NTFPs in times of drought and to identify options that could increase the capacity to adapt to climate change. We used participatory techniques, livelihood analysis, observations, and measurements to quantify the use of NTFPs. Communities recognized NTFPs as a mechanism to cope with crop failure. We estimated that indigenous fruits contributed to approximately 20% of the energy intake of wealthier farmers and to approximately 40% of the energy intake of poor farmers in years of inadequate rainfall. Farmers needed to invest a considerable share of their time to collect wild fruits from deforested areas. They recognized that the effectiveness of NTFPs as an adaptation option had become threatened by severe deforestation and by illegal harvesting of fruits by urban traders. Farmers indicated the need to plan future land use to (1 intensify crop production, (2 cultivate trees for firewood, (3 keep orchards of indigenous fruit trees, and (4 improve the quality of grazing lands. Farmers were willing to cultivate trees and to organize communal conservation of indigenous fruits trees. Through participatory exercises, farmers elaborated maps, which were used during land use discussions. The process led to prioritization of pressing land use problems and identification of the support needed: fast-growing trees for firewood, inputs for crop production, knowledge on the cultivation of indigenous fruit trees, and clear regulations and compliance with rules for extraction of NTFPs. Important issues that remain to be addressed are best practices for regeneration and conservation, access rules and implementation, and the

  10. Impact of burned area on African seasonal climate in regional modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Sales, F.; Xue, Y.; Okin, G. S.

    2013-12-01

    The WRF/SSiB2 model has been employed on a series of regional simulations to investigate the impact of burned areas associated with wildfires on African seasonal climate and surface energy balances. Burned areas are characterized by deposits of charcoal and ash, removal of vegetation, and alteration of the vegetation structure. Burned area information for the experiments was based on the MODIS burn date maps with an 8-day interval on 500m spatial resolution. Monthly burned area maps averaged over 2000-2011, and aggregated from the MODIS resolution, were created and incorporated in the regional model (50km resolution), whereby vegetation was reduced according to the percentage of grid cell area burned and ground albedo was reduced to 0.1 for a 10-day period after burning to reproduce the ground darkening associated with the amount of grid cell burned. Control (unburned) and burned preliminary experiments were carried out between 01 Oct 2010 and 31 Sep 2011 and compared to examine the sensitivity of different wildfire parameters on precipitation and surface fluxes; including sensitivity to ground albedo recovery time and vegetation resistance to fire. Vegetation cover, greenness, and LAI information were taken from the Fourier-Adjusted, Sensor and Solar zenith angle corrected, Interpolated, Reconstructed data set. Analysis of annual burned area maps revealed extensive burning, especially in the Sahel and between latitudes 0° and 15°S (Central Africa), with both regions exhibiting 50% or more of the area of a grid cell burned. Most of burning in Sahel occurred between November and February, while in the southern hemisphere it took place between June and September. Extensive burning was also found along eastern South Africa and Mozambique between 25° and 40° W, where some grid cells were 10% to 30% burned in August and September. Preliminary results indicated that the WRF/SSiB2 is sensitive to the land degradation associated with the burned areas. Areas with

  11. Early warning signal for dengue outbreaks and identification of high risk areas for dengue fever in Colombia using climate and non-climate datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jung-Seok; Carabali, Mabel; Lim, Jacqueline K; Herrera, Victor M; Park, Il-Yeon; Villar, Luis; Farlow, Andrew

    2017-07-10

    Dengue has been prevalent in Colombia with high risk of outbreaks in various locations. While the prediction of dengue epidemics will bring significant benefits to the society, accurate forecasts have been a challenge. Given competing health demands in Colombia, it is critical to consider the effective use of the limited healthcare resources by identifying high risk areas for dengue fever. The Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index was constructed based upon temperature, precipitation, and humidity. Considering the conditions necessary for vector survival and transmission behavior, elevation and population density were taken into account. An Early Warning Signal (EWS) model was developed by estimating the elasticity of the climate risk factor function to detect dengue epidemics. The climate risk factor index was further estimated at the smaller geographical unit (5 km by 5 km resolution) to identify populations at high risk. From January 2007 to December 2015, the Early Warning Signal model successfully detected 75% of the total number of outbreaks 1 ~ 5 months ahead of time, 12.5% in the same month, and missed 12.5% of all outbreaks. The climate risk factors showed that populations at high risk are concentrated in the Western part of Colombia where more suitable climate conditions for vector mosquitoes and the high population level were observed compared to the East. This study concludes that it is possible to detect dengue outbreaks ahead of time and identify populations at high risk for various disease prevention activities based upon observed climate and non-climate information. The study outcomes can be used to minimize potential societal losses by prioritizing limited healthcare services and resources, as well as by conducting vector control activities prior to experiencing epidemics.

  12. Climate change is predicted to negatively influence Moroccan endemic reptile richness. Implications for conservation in protected areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Freiría, Fernando; Argaz, Hamida; Fahd, Soumía; Brito, José C.

    2013-09-01

    The identification of species-rich areas and their prognosticated turnover under climate change are crucial for the conservation of endemic taxa. This study aims to identify areas of reptile endemicity richness in a global biodiversity hot spot (Morocco) under current and future climatic conditions and to investigate the role of protected areas in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Species distribution models (SDM) were performed over the distribution of 21 endemic reptiles, combined to estimate current species richness at 1 × 1 km resolution and projected to years 2050 and 2080 according to distinct story lines and ensemble global circulation models, assuming unlimited and null dispersion ability. Generalized additive models were performed between species richness and geographic characteristics of 43 protected areas. SDM found precipitation as the most important factor related to current species distributions. Important reductions in future suitable areas were predicted for 50 % of species, and four species were identified as highly vulnerable to extinction. Drastic reductions in species-rich areas were predicted for the future, with considerable variability between years and dispersal scenarios. High turnover rates of species composition were predicted for eastern Morocco, whereas low values were forecasted for the Northern Atlantic coast and mountains. Species richness for current and future conditions was significantly related to the altitude and latitude of protected areas. Protected areas located in mountains and/or in the Northern Atlantic coast were identified as refugia, where population monitoring and conservation management is needed.

  13. Short-term relationship between hip fracture and weather conditions in two Spanish health areas with different climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tenías, José María; Estarlich, Marisa; Crespo, Eusebio; Román-Ortiz, Carmen; Arias-Arias, Angel; Ballester, Ferran

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate differences in the short-term relationship between weather conditions and the incidence of hip fracture in people aged 65 and over among two regions of Spain. Hip fracture incidence was calculated for the years 2000-2008 for residents of Health Area 14 in Valencian Community (Mediterranean climate) and the "Mancha Centro" Health Area in Castilla-La Mancha (inland climate), Spain. The relationship between hip fracture incidence and weather was analyzed with a case-crossover design and explored in subgroups defined by sex, age, and fracture type. In the inland area, a positive and significant tendency for hip fracture incidence was observed (annual increase: 1.5%) whereas in the Mediterranean area a seasonal increase of 9% was noted in autumn and winter with respect to spring. Weather conditions, especially wind, were significantly associated with hip fracture incidence: days with more frequent windy periods and/or a greater wind velocity were associated with an increase in hip fracture incidence of 51% in the Mediterranean area and 44% in the inland area. Hip fracture incidence exhibits seasonal changes that differ between the Mediterranean and inland areas. The short-term relationship with climate, although similar in both areas, may partly explain these seasonal changes.

  14. Holocene moisture evolution across the Mongolian Plateau and its surrounding areas: A synthesis of climatic records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Feng, Zhaodong

    Based on the review of 26 high-standard Holocene climatic reconstructions (mainly pollen-based) from the Mongolian Plateau and its surrounding areas, temporal and spatial patterns of the Holocene moisture evolution are synthesized. The regionally-averaged moisture history from the summer monsoon-influenced semiarid belt in China (i.e., Region A) demonstrates that the moisture index curve is broadly in agreement with the synthesized East Asian Monsoon Strength curve, both following the general trend of the West Tropical Pacific SST that is in turn the delayed response to the northern hemispheric summer solar insolation. The regionally-averaged moisture indices from the winter monsoon-dominated southern Siberia including Lake Baikal area and the Altai Mountains (i.e., Region B) exhibit a general declining trends since 10.6-9.6 cal. kyr BP, being largely consistent with the trends of the annual precipitation and the warm-season temperature in the Russian Plain. The consistency might be attributable to the Holocene declining trend of the warm-season temperature in North Atlantic region. The predominant feature of the regionally-averaged moisture index from the westerlies-affected northern Xinjiang (i.e., Region C) is a persistent increasing trend since ~ 8 cal. kyr BP. The wetting trend of northern Xinjiang during the past 8000 years might be attributable to the increasing trend of winter insolation and to the associated increasing trend of cold-season temperature in northwestern Europe. The chronological correspondences between dry phases and warm intervals in the arid areas of the Mongolian Plateau (i.e., northern Mongolian Plateau within Mongolia and southern Mongolian Plateau within China, Region D) lend a support to the proposal that the mid-Holocene dry phase was most likely the result of mid-Holocene high warm-season temperature.

  15. Vulnerability assessment of southern coastal areas of Iran to sea level rise: evaluation of climate change impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Goharnejad

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent investigations have demonstrated global sea level rise as being due to climate change impact. Probable changes in sea level rise need to be evaluated so that appropriate adaptive strategies can be implemented. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on sea level rise along the Iranian south coast. Climatic data simulated by a GCM (General Circulation Model named CGCM3 under two-climate change scenarios A1b and A2 are used to investigate the impact of climate change. Among the different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves are selected for predicting sea level rise by using stepwise regression. Two Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network (DWNN models and a Discrete Wavelet Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference system (DWANFIS are developed to explore the relationship between selected climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelets are used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components. ANFIS/ANN are then used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and predictand (sea level to each other. The results show a significant rise in sea level in the study region under climate change impact, which should be incorporated into coastal area management.

  16. Managing Stormwater Runoff From Urban Areas in Consideration of Predicted Climate Change Impacts in the Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, M.

    2014-12-01

    Mean annual temperature and precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic, USA, increased over the last century, and global climate models applied to this region generally project that these trends will continue throughout the year 2100. Higher temperatures and associated evapotranspiration may decrease total annual baseflow, even as stormflow events increase in magnitude and intensity, leading to more frequent and larger nutrient and sediment fluxes to receiving waters. Development will create more impervious surfaces, thereby increasing the ratio of stormflow to baseflow volumes. The possibility of increasing riverine flow associated with climate change this century necessitates an evaluation of various best management practices (BMPs) in urban areas to develop and utilize BMPs that optimize reductions in nutrient and sediment fluxes, as well as determine the extent to which these BMPs should be implemented. The headwaters of the Patuxent watershed are located in a highly developed urban corridor between Washington DC and Baltimore thus making it an ideal setting to explore potential climate change impacts in urban areas. Scenarios generated from a system of linked watershed and estuarine models were used to determine climate and land use change effects on Patuxent River runoff and estuarine water quality. The uncertainties of climate predictions and their implications regarding proactive mitigation approaches to manage pollutant fluxes from urban areas are discussed.

  17. Radiative and climate effects of stratospheric sulfur geoengineering using seasonally varying injection areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laakso, Anton; Korhonen, Hannele; Romakkaniemi, Sami; Kokkola, Harri

    2017-06-01

    Stratospheric sulfur injections have often been suggested as a cost-effective geoengineering method to prevent or slow down global warming. In geoengineering studies, these injections are commonly targeted to the Equator, where the yearly mean intensity of the solar radiation is the highest and from where the aerosols disperse globally due to the Brewer-Dobson Circulation. However, compensating for greenhouse gas-induced zonal warming by reducing solar radiation would require a relatively larger radiative forcing to the mid- and high latitudes and a lower forcing to the low latitudes than what is achieved by continuous equatorial injections. In this study we employ alternative aerosol injection scenarios to investigate if the resulting radiative forcing can be targeted to be zonally more uniform without decreasing the global the mean radiative forcing of stratospheric sulfur geoengineering. We used a global aerosol-climate model together with an Earth system model to study the radiative and climate effects of stratospheric sulfur injection scenarios with different injection areas. According to our simulations, varying the SO2 injection area seasonally would result in a similar global mean cooling effect as injecting SO2 to the Equator, but with a more uniform zonal distribution of shortwave radiative forcing. Compared to the case of equatorial injections, in the seasonally varying injection scenario where the maximum sulfur production from injected SO2 followed the maximum of solar radiation, the shortwave radiative forcing decreased by 27 % over the Equator (the latitudes between 20° N and 20° S) and increased by 15 % over higher latitudes. Compared to the continuous injections to the Equator, in summer months the radiative forcing was increased by 17 and 14 % and in winter months decreased by 14 and 16 % in Northern and Southern hemispheres, respectively. However, these forcings do not translate into as large changes in temperatures. The changes in forcing

  18. Radiative and climate effects of stratospheric sulfur geoengineering using seasonally varying injection areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Laakso

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Stratospheric sulfur injections have often been suggested as a cost-effective geoengineering method to prevent or slow down global warming. In geoengineering studies, these injections are commonly targeted to the Equator, where the yearly mean intensity of the solar radiation is the highest and from where the aerosols disperse globally due to the Brewer–Dobson Circulation. However, compensating for greenhouse gas-induced zonal warming by reducing solar radiation would require a relatively larger radiative forcing to the mid- and high latitudes and a lower forcing to the low latitudes than what is achieved by continuous equatorial injections. In this study we employ alternative aerosol injection scenarios to investigate if the resulting radiative forcing can be targeted to be zonally more uniform without decreasing the global the mean radiative forcing of stratospheric sulfur geoengineering. We used a global aerosol–climate model together with an Earth system model to study the radiative and climate effects of stratospheric sulfur injection scenarios with different injection areas. According to our simulations, varying the SO2 injection area seasonally would result in a similar global mean cooling effect as injecting SO2 to the Equator, but with a more uniform zonal distribution of shortwave radiative forcing. Compared to the case of equatorial injections, in the seasonally varying injection scenario where the maximum sulfur production from injected SO2 followed the maximum of solar radiation, the shortwave radiative forcing decreased by 27 % over the Equator (the latitudes between 20° N and 20° S and increased by 15 % over higher latitudes. Compared to the continuous injections to the Equator, in summer months the radiative forcing was increased by 17 and 14 % and in winter months decreased by 14 and 16 % in Northern and Southern hemispheres, respectively. However, these forcings do not translate into as large changes in

  19. Impact of climatic change in forests and natural protected areas of Mexico; Impacto del cambio climatico en los bosques y areas naturales protegidas de Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Villers-Ruiz, L.; Trejo-Vazquez, I. [Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City (Mexico). Inst. de Geografia

    1998-01-01

    The vulnerability of Mexico`s forest ecosystems to climate change was assessed according to the results of two General Circulating Models (GCMs): CCCM and GFDL-R30. Holdridge`s life zones classification was used for the analysis. The paper shows the climatic differences for each model and for different region of Mexico. Climate scenarios were compared to current climate so as to recognise climate change regions for each model. Of the 18 life zones reported for the country, the most affected ones would be the temperate cold and warm forests, tending to disappear. On the contrary, tropical dry, very dry and thorn forests with warm affinities tend to widen their current surfaces, according to the CCCMN model. The GFDL-R30 model foresees increases in the distribution of tropical, humid and wet forests, which would be favored by the increase in rainfall, giving place to tropical rain forests, currently non-existent in the country. Of the 33 natural protected areas used for this study, 24 show changes in their life zones, the most affected ones are those found in the northern and occidental regions of the country. The most affected forest industries would be those located in the Sierra Madre Occidental, in the states of Durango and Chihuahua, and to the occidental part of the country, the industries found in Michoacan and Jalisco. 36 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.

  20. Urban Climate Change Resilience as a Teaching Tool for a STEM Summer Bridge Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, B.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Socha, A.; Corsi, F.

    2015-12-01

    Community colleges have been identified as important gateways for the United States' scientific workforce development. However, students who begin their higher education at community colleges often face barriers to developing the skills needed for higher-level STEM careers, including basic training in mathematics, programming, analytical problem solving, and cross-disciplinary communication. As part of the Business Higher Education Forum's Undergraduate STEM Interventions in Industry (USI2) Consortium, we are developing a summer bridge program for students in STEM fields transferring from community college to senior (4-year) colleges at the City University of New York. Our scientific research on New York City climate change resilience will serve as the foundation for the bridge program curriculum. Students will be introduced to systems thinking and improve their analytical skills through guided problem-solving exercises using the New York City Climate Change Resilience Indicators Database currently being developed by the CUNY Environmental Crossroads Initiative. Students will also be supported in conducting an introductory, independent research project using the database. The interdisciplinary nature of climate change resilience assessment will allow students to explore topics related to their STEM field of interest (i.e. engineering, chemistry, and health science), while working collaboratively across disciplines with their peers. We hope that students that participate in the bridge program will continue with their research projects through their tenure at senior colleges, further enhancing their academic training, while actively contributing to the study of urban climate change resilience. The effectiveness of this approach will be independently evaluated by NORC at the University of Chicago, as well as through internal surveying and long-term tracking of participating student cohorts.

  1. The influence of climatic changes on aquifers of Salento area - south Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doglioni, Angelo; Simeone, Vincenzo

    2010-05-01

    Climatic changes may significantly impact on a region such as Apulia, even if apparently of poor entity. This is due to the high hydrogeologic and desertification risk which characterizes that region. Here, potential climatic changes are investigated starting from the variations of rainfalls as well as the monthly and yearly rainy days, besides looking at the maximum and minimum average monthly temperatures. The elaboration of data showed that the Apulian climate is changing, since there exists a decreasing trend of rainfall, which characterizes almost all the measurement stations. Apulia is therefore subject to a real risk of water shortage. The decreasing trends particularly shows during the winter months, in particular between October and January. These are notoriously months which are important for the aquifers recharge. In addition, the increasing groundwater pumping, which normally takes place during peak demand months, is leading to its gradual depletion. In fact, groundwater is characterized by poor renovation properties. Looking at temperatures, it is possible to see a reduction of the gap between daily and nightly peaks. In particular, the minimum values are decreasing in the spring and summer time window, while maximum values are increasing in particular during summer and fall seasons. The analysis of hydrological curves seem to emphasize a higher probability of short but intense rainfall events, in particular for short durations. This implies an increasing environmental vulnerability of small catchments. A further analysis accounted for extreme dry periods, in particular an investigation of absolute drought durations and relative to 25 mm was undertaken. This emphasized negative trends at all stations. Dry periods are becoming shorter and shorter while the summer rainfall events increase. Afterwards, the durations of absolute and relative winter drought were investigates. Absolute winter dry periods showed negative trends, while relative winter dry

  2. FLOOD RISK FACTORS IN SUBURBAN AREA IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION POLICIES – CASE STUDY OF WROCLAW, POLAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymon Szewrański

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The uncontrolled sprawl of urban development exerts environmental impact in rural areas. The aim of this study is to identify areas vulnerable to climate change in the context of implementation of policies adapting to climate change at the local level. Such areas can be defined as those where the negative implication of flesh flood overlapping with soil sealing is observed. The study areas composed of municipalities which are influenced by the urban sprawl process of the city of Wroclaw, Poland. The analyses were performed using publicly available spatial data from aerial orthophotomaps from 2004–2012, the satellite images; archival and current land use maps. The database CORINE 1990, 2000, 2006; Urban Atlas and geodatabase of the European Environment Agency were also of an important usage for this study.

  3. Methane production and energy evaluation of a farm scaled biogas plant in cold climate area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fjørtoft, Kristian; Morken, John; Hanssen, Jon Fredrik; Briseid, Tormod

    2014-10-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the specific methane production and the energy balance at a small farm scaled mesophilic biogas plant in a cold climate area. The main substrate was dairy cow slurry. Fish silage was used as co-substrate for two of the three test periods. Energy production, substrate volumes and thermal and electric energy consumption was monitored. Methane production depended mainly on type and amount of substrates, while energy consumption depended mainly on the ambient temperature. During summer the main thermal energy consumption was caused by heating of new substrates, while covering for thermal energy losses from digester and pipes required most thermal energy during winter. Fish silage gave a total energy production of 1623 k Wh/m(3), while the dairy cow slurry produced 79 k Wh/m(3) slurry. Total energy demand at the plant varied between 26.9% and 88.2% of the energy produced. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Program for Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change: A Basis for School-Community Partnership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margie A. Nolasco

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Naga City in the Philippines as the catchment area of the Bicol River, Naga City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office (NCDRRMO has been actively addressing issues on climate change. Despite of local emergency response team’s efforts, people’s exposure to threat, increases. Significant impact can be made for climate change advocacies if there is appropriate and effective school-community collaboration. This provides challenge to all Higher Educational Institutions (HEIs. This paper evaluated the status of DRRM in the school and community. This also considered the extent of partnerships so that strategies could be made to help the community address problems in response to climate risk. The study adopted descriptive-evaluative design of mixed methods of research. The methods were utilized to confirm and validate findings. Structured questionnaires, interviews and FGDs were used for data gathering to the selected respondents of HEIs and Barangays in Naga City. Based on the findings of the study, respondents were “slightly prepared” for the exposure to climate change; collaborative efforts as one of the practices of the schools-LGUs in helping the community. Nevertheless, negative attitudes and no ample time to attend the seminar of the households as the problem encountered by schools-LGUs. As a result, inter-agencies collaboration should be established to address climate change related issues. The adoption of Buronyog sa Pag-Anduyog: A School-Community Initiatives for Climate Change will give opportunities to the community-beneficiaries be equipped with skills to address climate change impact.

  5. The effects of climatic change and wildland fires on air quality in national parks and wilderness areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Don McKenzie

    2010-01-01

    How will climatic change and wildfire management policies affect public land management decisions concerning air quality through the 21st century? As global temperatures and populations increase and demands on natural resources intensify, managers must evaluate the trade-offs between air quality and ongoing ecosystem restoration. In protected areas, where wilderness...

  6. Climate change, heat, and mortality in the tropical urban area of San Juan, Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo A.; Pérez-Cardona, Cynthia M.; Rodríguez, Ernesto; Martínez, Odalys; Taboas, Mariela; Bocanegra, Arelis; Méndez-Tejeda, Rafael

    2016-12-01

    Extreme heat episodes are becoming more common worldwide, including in tropical areas of Australia, India, and Puerto Rico. Higher frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat episodes are triggering public health issues in most mid-latitude and continental cities. With urbanization, land use and land cover have affected local climate directly and indirectly encouraging the Urban Heat Island effect with potential impacts on heat-related morbidity and mortality among urban populations. However, this association is not completely understood in tropical islands such as Puerto Rico. The present study examines the effects of heat in two municipalities (San Juan and Bayamón) within the San Juan metropolitan area on overall and cause-specific mortality among the population between 2009 and 2013. The number of daily deaths attributed to selected causes (cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, stroke, chronic lower respiratory disease, pneumonia, and kidney disease) coded and classified according to the Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases was analyzed. The relations between elevated air surface temperatures on cause-specific mortality were modeled. Separate Poisson regression models were fitted to explain the total number of deaths as a function of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, while adjusting for seasonal patterns. Results show a significant increase in the effect of high temperatures on mortality, during the summers of 2012 and 2013. Stroke (relative risk = 16.80, 95% CI 6.81-41.4) and cardiovascular diseases (relative risk = 16.63, 95% CI 10.47-26.42) were the primary causes of death most associated with elevated summer temperatures. Better understanding of how these heat events affect the health of the population will provide a useful tool for decision makers to address and mitigate the effects of the increasing temperatures on public health. The enhanced temperature forecast may be a crucial component in decision

  7. Climate change, heat, and mortality in the tropical urban area of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo A; Pérez-Cardona, Cynthia M; Rodríguez, Ernesto; Martínez, Odalys; Taboas, Mariela; Bocanegra, Arelis; Méndez-Tejeda, Rafael

    2016-12-15

    Extreme heat episodes are becoming more common worldwide, including in tropical areas of Australia, India, and Puerto Rico. Higher frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat episodes are triggering public health issues in most mid-latitude and continental cities. With urbanization, land use and land cover have affected local climate directly and indirectly encouraging the Urban Heat Island effect with potential impacts on heat-related morbidity and mortality among urban populations. However, this association is not completely understood in tropical islands such as Puerto Rico. The present study examines the effects of heat in two municipalities (San Juan and Bayamón) within the San Juan metropolitan area on overall and cause-specific mortality among the population between 2009 and 2013. The number of daily deaths attributed to selected causes (cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, stroke, chronic lower respiratory disease, pneumonia, and kidney disease) coded and classified according to the Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases was analyzed. The relations between elevated air surface temperatures on cause-specific mortality were modeled. Separate Poisson regression models were fitted to explain the total number of deaths as a function of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, while adjusting for seasonal patterns. Results show a significant increase in the effect of high temperatures on mortality, during the summers of 2012 and 2013. Stroke (relative risk = 16.80, 95% CI 6.81-41.4) and cardiovascular diseases (relative risk = 16.63, 95% CI 10.47-26.42) were the primary causes of death most associated with elevated summer temperatures. Better understanding of how these heat events affect the health of the population will provide a useful tool for decision makers to address and mitigate the effects of the increasing temperatures on public health. The enhanced temperature forecast may be a crucial component in decision

  8. A Pilot Training Program and Evaluation of Training for an Area Agency on Aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Wendy; Campbell, Richard

    A preliminary training and evaluation program was initiated by the Houston Area Agency on Aging. Several pilot training programs were tested, and information was gathered on the current and desired training status of personnel in service-providing agencies. Inspection of obective and subjective reports suggests that future training programs should…

  9. River and river-related drainage area parameters for site investigation program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blomqvist, P.; Brunberg, A.K. [Uppsala Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Limnology; Brydsten, L. [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science

    2001-05-01

    In this paper, a number of parameters of importance to a determination of the function of running waters as transport channels for material from the continents to the sea are presented. We have assumed that retention mechanisms of material in the river and in the riparian zone will be covered by special investigations but tried to create a platform for such investigations by quantification of the extension of different main habitats. The choice of parameters has been made so that also the nature conservation value of the river can be preliminary established, and includes a general description of the river type and the inherent ecosystem. The material links directly to that presented in a previous report concerning site investigation programmes for lakes. The parameters have been divided into five groups: 1) The location of the object relative important gradients in the surrounding nature; 2) The river catchment area and its major constituents; 3) The river morphometry; 4) The river ecosystem; 5) Human-induced damages to the river ecosystem. The first two groups, principally based on the climate, hydrology, geology and vegetation of the catchment area, represent parameters that can be used to establish the rarity and representativity of the system, and will in the context of site investigation program be used as a basis for generalisation of the results. The third group, the river morphometry parameters, are standard parameters for the outline of sampling programmes and for calculations of the physical extension of key habitats in the system. The fourth group, the ecosystem of the river, includes physical, chemical and biological parameters required for determination of the influence from the terrestrial ecosystem of the catchment area, nutrient status, distribution of different habitats, and presence of fish in the system. In the context of site investigation program, the parameters in these two groups will be used for budget calculations of the flow of energy and

  10. A window of opportunity for climate-change adaptation: Easing tree mortality by reducing forest basal area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradford, John B.; Bell, David M.

    2017-01-01

    Increasing aridity as a result of climate change is expected to exacerbate tree mortality. Reducing forest basal area – the cross-sectional area of tree stems within a given ground area – can decrease tree competition, which may reduce drought-induced tree mortality. However, neither the magnitude of expected mortality increases, nor the potential effectiveness of basal area reduction, has been quantified in dryland forests such as those of the drought-prone Southwest US. We used thousands of repeatedly measured forest plots to show that unusually warm and dry conditions are related to high tree mortality rates and that mortality is positively related to basal area. Those relationships suggest that while increasing high temperature extremes forecasted by climate models may lead to elevated tree mortality during the 21st century, future tree mortality might be partly ameliorated by reducing stand basal area. This adaptive forest management strategy may provide a window of opportunity for forest managers and policy makers to guide forest transitions to species and/or genotypes more suited to future climates.

  11. An Assessment of the Canadian Federal-Provincial Crop Production Insurance Program under Future Climate Change Scenarios in Ontario

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Shuang; Ker, Alan P.

    2013-01-01

    Research and observations indicate climate change has and will have an impact on Ontario field crop production. Little research has been done to forecast how climate change might influence the Canadian Federal-Provincial Crop Insurance program, including its premium rates and reserve fund balances, in the future decades. This paper proposes using a mixture of two normal yield probability distribution model to model crop yield conditions under hypothetical climate change scenarios. Then superi...

  12. Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junsheng Li

    Full Text Available In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

  13. Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Junsheng; Lin, Xin; Chen, Anping; Peterson, Townsend; Ma, Keping; Bertzky, Monika; Ciais, Philippe; Kapos, Valerie; Peng, Changhui; Poulter, Benjamin

    2013-01-01

    In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st) century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability) to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

  14. Urban Heat Island Variation across a Dramatic Coastal to Desert Climate Zone: An Application to Los Angeles, CA Metropolitan Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tayyebi, A.; Jenerette, D.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization is occurring at an unprecedented rate across the globe. The resulting urban heat island (UHI), which is a well-known phenomenon in urban areas due to the increasing number and density of buildings, leads to higher temperature in urban areas than surrounding sub-urban or rural areas. Understanding the effects of landscape pattern on UHI is crucial for improving the sustainability of cities and reducing heat vulnerability. Although a variety of studies have quantified UHI, there are a lack of studies to 1) understand UHI variation at the micro-scale (e.g., neighborhood effect) for large urban areas and 2) identify variation in the sensitivity of the UHI to environmental drivers across a megacity with a pronounced climate zone (i.e. coastal to desert climates) using advanced analytical tools. In this study, we identified the interacting relationship among various environmental and socio-economic factors to better identify UHI over the Los Angeles, CA metropolitan area. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to quantify the interacting relationships among land surface temperature (LST), land cover (NDVI), distance to ocean, elevation, and socio-economic status (neighborhood income). LST-NDVI slopes were negative across the climate zones and became progressively stronger with increasing distance from the coast. Results also showed that slopes between NDVI and neighborhood income were positive throughout the climate zone with a maximum in the relationship occurring near 25km from the coast. Because of these income-NDVI and NDVI-LST relationships we also found that slopes between LST and neighborhood income were negative throughout the climate zones and peaked at about 30km from the coast. These findings suggest assessments of urban heat vulnerability need to consider not only variation in the indicators but also variation in how the indicators influence vulnerability.

  15. Program Area of Interest: Fuel Transformer Solid Oxide Fuel Cell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norman Bessette; Douglas S. Schmidt; Jolyon Rawson; Rhys Foster; Anthony Litka

    2006-02-01

    The following report documents the technical approach and conclusions made by Acumentrics Corporation during latest budget period toward the development of a low cost 10kW tubular SOFC power system. The present program, guided under direction from the National Energy Technology Laboratory of the US DOE, is a nine-year cost shared Cooperative Agreement totaling close to $74M funded both by the US DOE as well as Acumentrics Corporation and its partners. The latest budget period ran from July of 2005 through December 2005. Work focused on cell technology enhancements as well as BOP and power electronics improvements and overall system design. Significant progress was made in increasing cell power enhancements as well as decreasing material cost in a drive to meet the SECA cost targets. The following report documents these accomplishments in detail as well as the layout plans for further progress in next budget period.

  16. Tanks focus area multiyear program plan FY97-FY99

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-08-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) continues to face a major tank remediation problem with approximately 332 tanks storing over 378,000 ml of high-level waste (HLW) and transuranic (TRU) waste across the DOE complex. Most of the tanks have significantly exceeded their life spans. Approximately 90 tanks across the DOE complex are known or assumed to have leaked. Some of the tank contents are potentially explosive. These tanks must be remediated and made safe. How- ever, regulatory drivers are more ambitious than baseline technologies and budgets will support. Therefore, the Tanks Focus Area (TFA) began operation in October 1994. The focus area manages, coordinates, and leverages technology development to provide integrated solutions to remediate problems that will accelerate safe and cost-effective cleanup and closure of DOE`s national tank system. The TFA is responsible for technology development to support DOE`s four major tank sites: Hanford Site (Washington), INEL (Idaho), Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (Tennessee), and Savannah River Site (SRS) (South Carolina). Its technical scope covers the major functions that comprise a complete tank remediation system: safety, characterization, retrieval, pretreatment, immobilization, and closure.

  17. Detection of the Coupling between Vegetation Leaf Area and Climate in a Multifunctional Watershed, Northwestern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu Hao; Cen Pan; Peilong Liu; Decheng Zhou; Liangxia Zhang; Zhe Xiong; Yongqiang Liu; Ge Sun

    2016-01-01

    Accurate detection and quantification of vegetation dynamics and drivers of observed climatic and anthropogenic change in space and time is fundamental for our understanding of the atmosphere–biosphere interactions at local and global scales. This case study examined the coupled spatial patterns of vegetation dynamics and climatic variabilities during the past...

  18. Validation of the USGS Landsat Burned Area Essential Climate Variable (BAECV) across the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderhoof, Melanie; Fairaux, Nicole; Beal, Yen-Ju G.; Hawbaker, Todd J.

    2017-01-01

    The Landsat Burned Area Essential Climate Variable (BAECV), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), capitalizes on the long temporal availability of Landsat imagery to identify burned areas across the conterminous United States (CONUS) (1984–2015). Adequate validation of such products is critical for their proper usage and interpretation. Validation of coarse-resolution products often relies on independent data derived from moderate-resolution sensors (e.g., Landsat). Validation of Landsat products, in turn, is challenging because there is no corresponding source of high-resolution, multispectral imagery that has been systematically collected in space and time over the entire temporal extent of the Landsat archive. Because of this, comparison between high-resolution images and Landsat science products can help increase user's confidence in the Landsat science products, but may not, alone, be adequate. In this paper, we demonstrate an approach to systematically validate the Landsat-derived BAECV product. Burned area extent was mapped for Landsat image pairs using a manually trained semi-automated algorithm that was manually edited across 28 path/rows and five different years (1988, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2008). Three datasets were independently developed by three analysts and the datasets were integrated on a pixel by pixel basis in which at least one to all three analysts were required to agree a pixel was burned. We found that errors within our Landsat reference dataset could be minimized by using the rendition of the dataset in which pixels were mapped as burned if at least two of the three analysts agreed. BAECV errors of omission and commission for the detection of burned pixels averaged 42% and 33%, respectively for CONUS across all five validation years. Errors of omission and commission were lowest across the western CONUS, for example in the shrub and scrublands of the Arid West (31% and 24%, respectively), and highest in the grasslands and

  19. Groundwater recharge - climatic and vegetation induced variations. Simulations in the Emaan and Aespoe areas in southern Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Losjoe, K.; Johansson, Barbro; Bringfelt, B.; Oleskog, I.; Bergstroem, S. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    1999-01-01

    Climate change and man-made interference will cause an impact on runoff and groundwater recharge in the future. With the aim to give a conception of seasonal variations and the magnitude of the differences, the HBV model has been used as a tool for simulating five climate alternatives in two areas of south-east Sweden. The climate alternatives include both increased and decreased temperature and precipitation. These are not predictions of a future climate change, and should only be regarded as examples. The purpose has been to exemplify a conceivable magnitude of change during temperate/boreal conditions. It has not been within the scope of this report to evaluate the most probable climate change scenarios. The impacts of different climate scenarios on the total groundwater recharge and the deep groundwater recharge have been calculated as long-term mean values and are presented in comparison with model-simulated values with an actual (recorded) climate sequence. The results show great differences between the climate alternatives. An increase in temperature will decrease snow accumulation and increase the evapotranspiration and can totally extinguish the spring snowmelt peak in runoff and groundwater recharge. A decreased temperature, on the contrary, will imply decreased winter runoff and recharge values and an increase in spring and summer values. Evapotranspiration and soil water content play a key role in the runoff and recharge processes. This report makes a review of some literature about work done within the areas of investigation and calculation of evapotranspiration. Research is in progress, not only on formulating future climate scenarios, but also on distinguishing evapotranspiration from different kinds of vegetation. These are complex questions, but vital ones, as a climate change will also affect the vegetation. Until new research results are presented, well-known methods can be used for simulating the effects of logging on runoff and groundwater

  20. Adapting to Climate Change: Reconsidering the Role of Protected Areas and Protected Organisms in Western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graumlich, L. J.; Cross, M. S.; Hilty, J.; Berger, J.

    2007-12-01

    With the recent publication of the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), little doubt remains among scientists that the global climate system is changing due to human influence and that climate change will have far-reaching and fundamental impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity. Arguably the best-documented evidence linking 20th Century warming trends to changes in physical and biological systems comes from the mountains of western North America (e.g., Figure SPM1 in Summary of Working Group 11 Report). In the West, ecosystem impacts include changes in the distribution of species as well as changing functional linkages between species such as the synchrony between flower emergence and pollinating insects. These climate impacts, when combined with other environmental stressors (e.g., altered disturbance regimes, land-use change and habitat fragmentation) portend an amplification of species extinction rates. One of the great challenges in adapting to climate change is developing and implementing policies that enhance ecological resilience in the face of these change. Clearly, the current system of nature reserves in Western North America is a fundamental asset for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, the fixed- boundary nature of these protected areas presents a problem as species' ranges shift with future climate change. The loss of species whose ranges move outside of fixed park boundaries and the arrival of other species that move into protected areas could lead to significant turnover of species diversity, new species assemblages, and altered functionality. In short, reserves that were designed to protect particular species or communities may no longer serve their intended purpose under a changing climate. In this talk, we use case studies from the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and the Sonoran Desert Ecosystem to define strategies for enhancing ecological resilience to climate change at

  1. Inductive analysis about the impact of climate warming on regional geomorphic evolution in arid area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anayit, Mattohti; Abulizi, Mailiya

    2016-04-01

    Climate change on the surface of earth will produce a chain reaction among so many global natural environmental elements. Namely, all the issues will be affected by the climate change, just like the regional water environment, formation and development of landscape, plants and animals living environment, the survival of microorganisms, the human economic environment and health, and the whole social environment changes at well. But because of slow frequency of climate change and it is volatility change, its influence on other factors and the overall environmental performance is not obvious, and its reflection performs slowly. Using regional weather data, we calculated qualitatively and quantitatively and did analysis the impact of climate warming on Xinjiang (a province of China) geomorphic evolution elements, including the ground weather, erosion rate, collapse change, landslide occurrences changes and impact debris flow, combining the field survey and indoor test methods. Key words: climate change; the geomorphic induction; landscape change in river basin; Xinjiang

  2. Preview of Our Changing Planet. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2008

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Brennan, William J; Kaye, Jack; Dearry, Allen; Elwood, Jerry; Glackin, Mary; Gruber, Paricia; Hohenstein, William; Lawson, Linda; Moyer, Jarvis; Myers, Mark; Neale, Patrick; Schafer, Jacqueline; Scherage, Joel; Watson, Harlan; Banks, George; Brandt, Melissa; Eule, Stephen; Gebbie, Katharine; McCalla, Margaret R; Whitney, Gene

    2007-01-01

    ...: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2008 provides a timely and brief description of the plans for FY 2008 as well as a summary of recent accomplishments, and is intended to support CCSP...

  3. The influence of negative climate changes on physical development of urban and rural areas in Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahman NURKOVIĆ

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The influence of negative climate changes on physical development of urban and rural areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been analysed in the paper. So, economy and society in urban and rural areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina are susceptible to environmental consequences of climate changes. In practice, this means that poorer countries in development of economic activities will suffer most due to climate changes, while some developed countries can be in a position to use new commercial possibilities. Presently, there is a significant scientific consensus that human activity affected the increase of atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, respectively the carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone and chlorofluorocarbon, as a result of global changes of climate that will probably change dramatically during the next centuries in Bosnia and Herzegovina. More and more intensive industrialisation and urbanisation, as well as tourism, a growing phenomenon of the 21st century, have numerous negative direct, indirect and multiplicative effects on flora and fauna habitats of Bosnia and Herzegovina. For all mentioned above, this paper tries to indicate to a need for more significant investing into tourism development, which is presently at a very low level of development in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the past ten years a dynamical development of tertiary activities in urban and rural areas has been distinguished; among which shopping centres take a significant position. 

  4. Determining the relative importance of climatic drivers on spring phenology in grassland ecosystems of semi-arid areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Likai; Meng, Jijun

    2015-02-01

    Understanding climate controls on spring phenology in grassland ecosystems is critically important in predicting the impacts of future climate change on grassland productivity and carbon storage. The third-generation Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS3g) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data were applied to derive the start of the growing season (SOS) from 1982-2010 in grassland ecosystems of Ordos, a typical semi-arid area in China. Then, the conditional Granger causality method was utilized to quantify the directed functional connectivity between key climatic drivers and the SOS. The results show that the asymmetric Gaussian (AG) function is better in reducing noise of NDVI time series than the double logistic (DL) function within our study area. The southeastern Ordos has earlier occurrence and lower variability of the SOS, whereas the northwestern Ordos has later occurrence and higher variability of the SOS. The research also reveals that spring precipitation has stronger causal connectivity with the SOS than other climatic factors over different grassland ecosystem types. There is no statistically significant trend across the study area, while the similar pattern is observed for spring precipitation. Our study highlights the link of spring phenology with different grassland types, and the use of coupling remote sensing and econometric tools. With the dramatic increase in global change research, Granger causality method augurs well for further development and application of time-series modeling of complex social-ecological systems at the intersection of remote sensing and landscape changes.

  5. Outbreak of acute fasciolosis in sheep farms in a Mediterranean area arising as a possible consequence of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosco, Antonio; Rinaldi, Laura; Musella, Vincenzo; Amadesi, Alessandra; Cringoli, Giuseppe

    2015-03-19

    The objective of the present study was to investigate whether climate change in recent years have influenced the onset of acute outbreaks of Fasciola hepatica in ovine farms in southern Italy. In May-June 2014, a severe outbreak of F. hepatica occurred in three sheep farms in the Campania region. Clinical, coprological and necroscopic examinations were performed. Morbidity and mortality due to F. hepatica were 3-67% and 3-50%, respectively. Coprological examinations showed high values of F. hepatica eggs per gram (EPG) of faeces (860-1,240). Similarly, high adult parasitic burdens were found in animals that had sucombed (124-426 flukes). The study area was georeferenced and climatic data (temperature, humidity, days of rain and total amount of rainfall) were recorded at four georeferenced meterological stations in the study area. Montly data were processed and analyzed for the period 2000-2013 to evaluate the change of the climatic parameters during these years. The results show that there was a significant increase (P<0.001) of temperature, increased rainfall and increase in the number of rainy days compared to previous years. In addition to the outbreak reported here, we discuss the potential effects of climate change on the epidemiology of F. hepatica and the implications for sheep farming in the Mediterranean area.

  6. The Svalbard REU Program: Undergraduates Pursuing Arctic Climate Change Research on Svalbard, Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roof, S.; Werner, A.

    2007-12-01

    The Svalbard Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) program sponsored by the Arctic Natural Sciences Program of the National Science Foundation has been successfully providing international field research experiences since 2004. Each year, 7-9 undergraduate students have participated in 4-5 weeks of glacial geology and climate change fieldwork on Spitsbergen in the Svalbard archipelago in the North Atlantic (76- 80° N lat.). While we continue to learn new and better ways to run our program, we have learned specific management and pedagogical strategies that allow us to streamline our logistics and to provide genuine, meaningful research opportunities to undergraduate students. We select student participants after extensive nationwide advertising and recruiting. Even before applying to the program, students understand that they will be doing meaningful climate change science, will take charge of their own project, and will be expected to continue their research at their home institution. We look for a strong commitment of support from a student's advisor at their home institution before accepting students into our program. We present clear information, including participant responsibilities, potential risks and hazards, application procedures, equipment needed, etc on our program website. The website also provides relevant research papers and data and results from previous years, so potential participants can see how their efforts will contribute to growing body of knowledge. New participants meet with the previous years' participants at a professional meeting (our "REUnion") before they start their field experience. During fieldwork, students are expected to develop research questions and test their own hypotheses while providing and responding to peer feedback. Professional assessment by an independent expert provides us with feedback that helps us improve logistical procedures and shape our educational strategies. The assessment also shows us how

  7. Taming Typhon: Advancing Climate Literacy by Coordinating Federal Earth System Science Education Investments Through the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karsten, J. L.; Niepold, F.; Wei, M.; Waple, A. M.

    2008-12-01

    Thirteen Federal agencies in the United States invest in research, communication, and education activities related to climate and global change. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) works to integrate the research activities of these different agencies, with oversight from the Office of Science and Technology Policy, the Council on Environmental Quality, the National Economic Council and the Office of Management and Budget. The CCSP is the result of a Presidential initative in 2001 to build on the Global Change Research Program, which exists as a result of the Global Change Research Act of 1990. This initiative was to shift the focus of the Program from 'discovery and characterization' to 'differentiation and strategy investigation.' With this shift, CCSP's focus is now on evaluating optimal strategies for addressing climate change risks, improving coordination among the Federal agencies, communicating research results to all stakeholders (including national policy leaders and local resource managers), and improving public debate and decision-making related to global change. Implicit to these activities is the need to educate the general public about the science of climate change and its consequences, as well as coordinate Federal investments related to climate change education. This is no small task, given the variety of missions and approaches of the participating agencies. Recognizing that its Communications Interagency Working Group (CIWG) does not have the expertise or focus to adequately address issues related to science education, the CCSP recently established an ad-hoc Education Interagency Working Group (EIWG), comprising representatives from all 13 agencies, that will work closely with the CIWG to enhance education goals. Its mission is to advance literacy in climate and related sciences and increase informed decision making for the Nation. The EIWG envisions that its primary activities in the near-term will be focused on establishing: (1) a

  8. Climate change trends, grape production, and potential alcohol concentration in wine from the "Romagna Sangiovese" appellation area (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teslić, Nemanja; Zinzani, Giordano; Parpinello, Giuseppina P.; Versari, Andrea

    2018-01-01

    The trend of climate change and its effect on grape production and wine composition was evaluated using a real case study of seven wineries located in the "Romagna Sangiovese" appellation area (northern Italy), one of the most important wine producing region of Italy. This preliminary study focused on three key aspects: (i) Assessment of climate change trends by calculating bioclimatic indices over the last 61 years (from 1953 to 2013) in the Romagna Sangiovese area: significant increasing trends were found for the maximum, mean, and minimum daily temperatures, while a decreasing trend was found for precipitation during the growing season period (April-October). Mean growing season temperature was 18.49 °C, considered as warm days in the Romagna Sangiovese area and optimal for vegetative growth of Sangiovese, while nights during the ripening months were cold (13.66 °C). The rise of temperature shifted studied area from the temperate/warm temperate to the warm temperate-/warm grape-growing region (according to the Huglin classification). (ii) Relation between the potential alcohol content from seven wineries and the climate change from 2001 to 2012: dry spell index (DSI) and Huglin index (HI) suggested a large contribution to increasing level of potential alcohol in Sangiovese wines, whereas DSI showed higher correlation with potential alcohol respect to the HI. (iii) Relation between grape production and the climate change from 1982 to 2012: a significant increasing trend was found with little effect of the climate change trends estimated with used bioclimatic indices. Practical implication at viticultural and oenological levels is discussed.

  9. Climate change trends, grape production, and potential alcohol concentration in wine from the "Romagna Sangiovese" appellation area (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teslić, Nemanja; Zinzani, Giordano; Parpinello, Giuseppina P.; Versari, Andrea

    2016-12-01

    The trend of climate change and its effect on grape production and wine composition was evaluated using a real case study of seven wineries located in the "Romagna Sangiovese" appellation area (northern Italy), one of the most important wine producing region of Italy. This preliminary study focused on three key aspects: (i) Assessment of climate change trends by calculating bioclimatic indices over the last 61 years (from 1953 to 2013) in the Romagna Sangiovese area: significant increasing trends were found for the maximum, mean, and minimum daily temperatures, while a decreasing trend was found for precipitation during the growing season period (April-October). Mean growing season temperature was 18.49 °C, considered as warm days in the Romagna Sangiovese area and optimal for vegetative growth of Sangiovese, while nights during the ripening months were cold (13.66 °C). The rise of temperature shifted studied area from the temperate/warm temperate to the warm temperate-/warm grape-growing region (according to the Huglin classification). (ii) Relation between the potential alcohol content from seven wineries and the climate change from 2001 to 2012: dry spell index (DSI) and Huglin index (HI) suggested a large contribution to increasing level of potential alcohol in Sangiovese wines, whereas DSI showed higher correlation with potential alcohol respect to the HI. (iii) Relation between grape production and the climate change from 1982 to 2012: a significant increasing trend was found with little effect of the climate change trends estimated with used bioclimatic indices. Practical implication at viticultural and oenological levels is discussed.

  10. The Southern Adriatic Basin: A Key Area For The Climatic Monitoring of The Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Civitarese, G.; Gacic, M.; Saint, The

    The Southern Adriatic, the southernmost and deepest subbasin of the Adriatic Sea, is considered a major site of deep water formation and the origin of the semi-closed ther- mohaline cell in the Eastern Mediterranean. The dynamics of the area is dominated by the presence of a quasi-permanent cyclonic gyre that intensifies in the winter season creating the conditions for the production of dense and oxygenated waters that are exported to the rest of the Eastern Mediterranean through the Strait of Otranto. The at- mospheric forcing is transferred into the marine system by the winter convective water overturning, that is the key process generating new waters and triggering the biologi- cal pump. The other main forcing is the intermediate saline water advection across the Strait of Otranto, connecting the Adriatic Sea with the general basin-scale circulation of the Eastern Mediterranean. Both of them act in determining the occurrence and the magnitude of the convective events and the related biological processes. Due to the ac- tion of these forcing, the Southern Adriatic system is subject to a significant variability on temporal scale spanning from days to decades. Recent studies have demonstrated that the local thermal and haline surface forcing generates strong year-to-year varia- tions of the vertical convection and consequently of the primary production. On the other hand, the advective forcing changes the intermediate water thermohaline prop- erties as well as the nutrient content in the basin, again affecting both the vertical convection and the biological processes. The signals associated to these processes are particularly intense, and allow us to designate this relatively small basin as a suit- able field laboratory for the study of the relationships between ocean biogeochemical cycles and climate.

  11. The Effect of Climate Variability on Gray Whales (Eschrichtius robustus) within Their Wintering Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvadeo, Christian J; Gómez-Gallardo U, Alejandro; Nájera-Caballero, Mauricio; Urbán-Ramirez, Jorge; Lluch-Belda, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The environmental conditions of the breeding and feeding grounds of the gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) fluctuates at inter-annual scales in response to regional and basin climate patterns. Thus, the goals of this study were to assess if there are any relationships between summer sea ice on their feeding ground and counts of gray whale mother-calf (MC) pairs at Ojo de Liebre Lagoon (OLL); and if El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the winter distribution of gray whales MC pairs in the three primary breeding lagoons of OLL, San Ignacio Lagoon (SIL) and Santo Domingo Channel north of Bahia Magdalena (SDCh). Maximum February counts of MC pairs were compared with the length of the open-water season at the Bering Sea during the previous year. Then, an ENSO index and sea surface temperature anomalies outside the primary lagoons was compared with the maximum February counts of MC pairs at these lagoons. Results showed that maximum counts of MC pairs in OLL correlates with sea ice conditions in their feeding grounds from the previous feeding season, and this relationship can be attributed to changes in nutritive condition of females. ENSO-related variability influences distribution of MC pairs in the southern area of SDCh during the warm 1998 El Niño and cold 1999 La Niña. This supports the hypothesis that changes in the whales' distribution related to sea temperature occurs to reduce thermal-stress and optimize energy utilization for newborn whales. Although this last conclusion should be considered in view of the limited data available from all the whales' wintering locations in all the years considered.

  12. Strategic Program for Biodiversity and Water Resource Management and Climate Change Adaptation in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sher, Hassan; Aldosari, Ali

    2014-05-01

    Population pressure, climate change and resulting extreme weather scenarios, armed con?ict and economic pressure have put the situation of Pakistan's biodiversity at risk. Melting glaciers, deforestation, erosion, landslides and depletion of agricultural areas are aggravating the regulation of water ?ow in Pakistan. In Pakistan agro-biodiversity is central to human survival and play vital role in the economy of the country. It contributes 21% to the GDP, employs 45% of the labor force and contributes 71% of the export earnings. Agro- biodiversity in Pakistan is greatly affected by short term climate variability and could be harmed signi?cantly by long-term climate change. As the duration of crop growth cycle is related to temperature, an increase in temperature will speed up crop growth and shorten the duration between sowing and harvesting. This shortening could have an adverse effect on productivity of crops. The present assessment also revealed that hydrological cycle is also likely to be in?uenced by global warming. Since the agricultural crops are heavily dependent on the water, and water resources are inextricably linked with climate; therefore, the projected climate change has serious implications for water resources of the country. The freshwater resources, in Pakistan, are based on snow- and glacier-melt and monsoon rains, both being highly sensitive to climate change. The country speci?c current information strongly suggests that: decrease in glacier volume and snow cover leading to alterations in the seasonal ?ow pattern of Indus River System; increased annual ?ows for a few decades followed by decline in ?ows in subsequent years; increase in the formation and burst of glacial lakes; higher frequency and intensity of extreme climate events coupled with irregular monsoon rains causing frequent ?oods and droughts; and greater demand of water due to higher evapotranspiration rates at elevated temperatures. These trends will have large impact on the spatial

  13. New Distributional Data of Butterflies in the Middle of the Mediterranean Basin: An Area Very Sensitive to Expected Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Scalercio

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Butterflies are known to be very sensitive to environmental changes. Species distribution is modified by climate warming with latitudinal and altitudinal range shifts, but also environmental perturbations modify abundance and species composition of communities. Changes can be detected and described when large datasets are available, but unfortunately only for few Mediterranean countries they were created. The butterfly fauna of the Mediterranean Basin is very sensitive to climate warming and there is an urgent need of large datasets to investigate and mitigate risks such as local extinctions or new pest outbreaks. The fauna of Calabria, the southernmost region of peninsular Italy, is composed also of European species having here their southern range. The aim of this dataset paper is to increase and update the knowledge of butterfly distribution in a region very sensitive to climate warming that can become an early-warning area.

  14. Role of community based local institution for climate change adaptation in the Teesta riverine area of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Rezaul Karim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change adaptation is one of the most crucial issues in developing countries like Bangladesh. The main objective was to understand the linkage of participation with Community Based Adaptation (CBA to climate change. Institutional framework following different types of conceptual theories (collective action, group, game and social learning theory was utilized to analyze the participatory process in local community level Village Disaster Mangement Committee (VDMC that works in collaboration with local government. Field level data was collected through interview and group discussion during 25 April to 30 May 2015 in the Teesta riverine area of northern Bangladesh. Results showed that flood and drought were the major climate change impacts in the study area, and various participatory tools were used for risk assessment and undertaking action plans to overcome the climate change challenges by the group VDMC. Participation in VDMC generated both relational and technical outcomes. The relational outcomes are the informal institutional changes through which local community adopt technological adaptation measures. Although, limitations like bargaining problem, free riding or conflict were found in collective decision making, but the initiation of local governance like VDMC has brought various institutional change in the communities in terms of adaptation practices. More than 80% VDMC and around 40–55% non-VDMC household respondents agreed that overall community based adaptation process was successful in the previous year. They believed that some innovative practices had been brought in the community through VDMC action for climate change adaptation. No doubt that the CBA has achieved good progress to achieve the government Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM strategy of climate change adaptation. But, there is still lack of coordination among local government, NGOs and civil partners in working together. Research related to socio

  15. New Community Education Program on Oceans and Global Climate Change: Results from Our Pilot Year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruno, B. C.; Wiener, C.

    2010-12-01

    Ocean FEST (Families Exploring Science Together) engages elementary school students and their parents and teachers in hands-on science. Through this evening program, we educate participants about ocean and earth science issues that are relevant to their local communities. In the process, we hope to inspire more underrepresented students, including Native Hawaiians, Pacific Islanders and girls, to pursue careers in the ocean and earth sciences. Hawaii and the Pacific Islands will be disproportionately affected by the impacts of global climate change, including rising sea levels, coastal erosion, coral reef degradation and ocean acidification. It is therefore critically important to train ocean and earth scientists within these communities. This two-hour program explores ocean properties and timely environmental topics through six hands-on science activities. Activities are designed so students can see how globally important issues (e.g., climate change and ocean acidification) have local effects (e.g., sea level rise, coastal erosion, coral bleaching) which are particularly relevant to island communities. The Ocean FEST program ends with a career component, drawing parallel between the program activities and the activities done by "real scientists" in their jobs. The take-home message is that we are all scientists, we do science every day, and we can choose to do this as a career. Ocean FEST just completed our pilot year. During the 2009-2010 academic year, we conducted 20 events, including 16 formal events held at elementary schools and 4 informal outreach events. Evaluation data were collected at all formal events. Formative feedback from adult participants (parents, teachers, administrators and volunteers) was solicited through written questionnaires. Students were invited to respond to a survey of five questions both before and after the program to see if there were any changes in content knowledge and career attitudes. In our presentation, we will present our

  16. Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia, Raquel A.; Burgess, Neil David; Cabeza, Mar

    2012-01-01

    exposure of sub-Saharan African vertebrates to climatic changes. The future use and further development of bioclimatic envelope modelling will hinge on the interpretation of results in the light of methodological as well as biological uncertainties. Here, we provide a framework to address methodological......Africa is predicted to be highly vulnerable to 21st century climatic changes. Assessing the impacts of these changes on Africa's biodiversity is, however, plagued by uncertainties, and markedly different results can be obtained from alternative bioclimatic envelope models or future climate...... projections. Using an ensemble forecasting framework, we examine projections of future shifts in climatic suitability, and their methodological uncertainties, for over 2500 species of mammals, birds, amphibians and snakes in sub-Saharan Africa. To summarize a priori the variability in the ensemble of 17...

  17. Impacts of Climatic Hazards on the Small Wetland Ecosystems (ponds: Evidence from Some Selected Areas of Coastal Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucy Faulkner

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Most climate related hazards in Bangladesh are linked to water. The climate vulnerable poor—the poorest and most marginalized communities living in remote villages along Bangladesh’s coastal zone that are vulnerable to climate change impacts and who possess low adaptive capacity are most affected by lack of access to safe water sources. Many climate vulnerable poor households depend on small isolated wetlands (ponds for daily drinking water needs and other domestic requirements, including cooking, bathing and washing. Similarly, the livelihoods of many of these households also depend on access to ponds due to activities of small-scale irrigation for rice farming, vegetable farming and home gardening. This is particularly true for those poorest and most marginalized communities living in Satkhira, one of the most vulnerable coastal districts in south-west Bangladesh. These households rely on pond water for vegetable farming and home gardening, especially during winter months. However, these pond water sources are highly vulnerable to climate change induced hazards, including flooding, drought, salinity intrusion, cyclone and storm surges, erratic rainfall patterns and variations in temperature. Cyclone Sidr and Cyclone Aila, which hit Bangladesh in 2007 and 2009 respectively, led to a significant number of such ponds being inundated with saline water. This impacted upon and resulted in wide scale implications for climate vulnerable poor households, including reduced availability of safe drinking water, and safe water for health and hygiene practices and livelihood activities. Those households living in remote areas and who are most affected by these climate impacts are dependent on water being supplied through aid, as well as travelling long distances to collect safe water for drinking purposes.

  18. ASK Florida; a climate change education professional development program for middle school teachers in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weihs, R. R.

    2012-12-01

    A series of professional development workshops covering the fundamentals of climate change have been developed and facilitated for two groups of middle school science teachers in three Florida counties. The NASA-supported joint venture between Florida State University's Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) and the University of South Florida's (USF's) Coalition for Science Literacy, ASK Florida, focuses on expanding and deepening teachers' content knowledge of a wide range of climate change topics, connecting local and regional changes to the global picture, and supporting classroom implementation and effective teaching practices. Education experts from USF, climate scientists from COAPS, and Hillsborough county teachers and science coaches coordinated and developed the workshop content, which is based on Florida's Next Generation Sunshine State Standards in science, science curriculum guides for 6th grade, and teacher interest. Several scientists have facilitated activities during the workshop, including professors in meteorology and climatology, research scientists in the field, a NOAA program manager, the state climatologists for Florida, and others. Having these climate scientists present during the workshop provides teachers an opportunity to interact directly with the scientists and gain insight into the climatology field. Additionally, we host an open-forum discussion panel during which teachers can ask the experts about any topics of interest. Activities are designed to enhance the scientific skill level of the teachers. Introductory activities reinforce teachers' abilities to distinguish facts from opinions and to evaluate sources. Other activities provide hands-on experience using actual scientific data from NASA and other agencies. For example, teachers analyze precipitation data to create distributions of Florida rainfall, examine sea level trends at various locations, identify Atlantic hurricane frequencies during the phases of ENSO

  19. Projection of Climate Change Based on Multi-Site Statistical Downscaling over Gilan area, Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Vesta Afzali; Masoud Reza Hessami Kermani

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: The phenomenon of climate change and its consequences is a familiar topic which is associated with natural disasters such as, flooding, hurricane, drought that cause water crisis and irreparable damages. Studying this phenomenon is a serious warning regarding the earth’s weather change for a long period of time. Materials and Methods: In order to understand and survey the impacts of climate change on water resources, Global Circulation Models, GCMs, are used; their main role ...

  20. Economics assessment and impact of climate change on rice production in selected granary area in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Engku Ariff, Engku Elini

    2016-01-01

    Two of the major challenges to agriculture are the effective management of inputs involved in production and the impact of climate change on production. In Malaysia, as in other countries, input costs across rice farms within a particular year are highly variable, suggesting that there is scope for improving the efficiency of production. Climate change, particularly in the form of changed temperatures and rainfall, is likely to affect rice yields. In this thesis, we focus first on technical e...

  1. Climate variability in the subarctic area for the last 2 millennia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolle, Marie; Debret, Maxime; Massei, Nicolas; Colin, Christophe; deVernal, Anne; Divine, Dmitry; Werner, Johannes P.; Hormes, Anne; Korhola, Atte; Linderholm, Hans W.

    2018-01-01

    To put recent climate change in perspective, it is necessary to extend the instrumental climate records with proxy data from paleoclimate archives. Arctic climate variability for the last 2 millennia has been investigated using statistical and signal analyses from three regionally averaged records from the North Atlantic, Siberia and Alaska based on many types of proxy data archived in the Arctic 2k database v1.1.1. In the North Atlantic and Alaska, the major climatic trend is characterized by long-term cooling interrupted by recent warming that started at the beginning of the 19th century. This cooling is visible in the Siberian region at two sites, warming at the others. The cooling of the Little Ice Age (LIA) was identified from the individual series, but it is characterized by wide-range spatial and temporal expression of climate variability, in contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The LIA started at the earliest by around AD 1200 and ended at the latest in the middle of the 20th century. The widespread temporal coverage of the LIA did not show regional consistency or particular spatial distribution and did not show a relationship with archive or proxy type either. A focus on the last 2 centuries shows a recent warming characterized by a well-marked warming trend parallel with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. It also shows a multidecadal variability likely due to natural processes acting on the internal climate system on a regional scale. A ˜ 16-30-year cycle is found in Alaska and seems to be linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, whereas ˜ 20-30- and ˜ 50-90-year periodicities characterize the North Atlantic climate variability, likely in relation with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These regional features are probably linked to the sea ice cover fluctuations through ice-temperature positive feedback.

  2. Augmenting Blue Land Uses: An adaptation approach for Climate Change in Urban Areas. A case study of Janakpur Municipalities, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Chandra Lal

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has emerged as a major challenge to human kind in the 21st century and Nepal is no exception. The challenges are even more severe in the context of urban areas where most wealth and population is concentrated. Greening an area is a major strategy for adapting to climate change; however, with blue land use a major source of evaporation can act as another activity to aid the adaption to climate change, where ponds are traditionally present within a city but are often abandoned. The present research has been carried out in the city of Janakpur situated in the central southern flatland of Nepal along its Southern border with India. The research outlines the relation of blue land use and its cooling capacity in an urban area. The research adopts both qualitative and quantitative research methods, showing that blue land use does have positive a correlation with the cooling of the surrounding area. The research in Janakpur, a pond city with more than 200 ponds within the urban fabric reveals that during summer the houses along the ponds will experience temperatures 2 °C lower than houses situated more than 100 m away from the ponds.

  3. Quantification and mapping of urban fluxes under climate change: Application of WRF-SUEWS model to Greater Porto area (Portugal).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafael, S; Martins, H; Marta-Almeida, M; Sá, E; Coelho, S; Rocha, A; Borrego, C; Lopes, M

    2017-05-01

    Climate change and the growth of urban populations are two of the main challenges facing Europe today. These issues are linked as climate change results in serious challenges for cities. Recent attention has focused on how urban surface-atmosphere exchanges of heat and water will be affected by climate change and the implications for urban planning and sustainability. In this study energy fluxes for Greater Porto area, Portugal, were estimated and the influence of the projected climate change evaluated. To accomplish this, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) were applied for two climatological scenarios: a present (or reference, 1986-2005) scenario and a future scenario (2046-2065), in this case the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5, which reflects the worst set of expectations (with the most onerous impacts). The results show that for the future climate conditions, the incoming shortwave radiation will increase by around 10%, the sensible heat flux around 40% and the net storage heat flux around 35%. In contrast, the latent heat flux will decrease about 20%. The changes in the magnitude of the different fluxes result in an increase of the net all-wave radiation by 15%. The implications of the changes of the energy balance on the meteorological variables are discussed, particularly in terms of temperature and precipitation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Drought Hazard Evaluation in Boro Paddy Cultivated Areas of Western Bangladesh at Current and Future Climate Change Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Drought hazard is one of the main hindrances for sustaining food security in Bangladesh, and climate change may exacerbate it in the next several decades. This study aims to evaluate drought hazard at current and future climate change conditions in the Boro paddy cultivated areas of western Bangladesh using simulated climate data from the outputs of three global climate models (GCMs based on the SRES A1B scenario for the period between 2041 and 2070. The threshold level of Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI was employed to identify drought events and its probability distribution function (PDF was applied to create the drought hazard index. The study demonstrates that enhancement of potential evapotranspiration (PET will surpass that of precipitation, resulting in intensified drought events in future. In addition, the PDFs of drought events will move the upper tail in future period compared to the baseline. The results showed that the southwestern region was more severe to the drought hazard than the northwestern region during the period of 1984 to 2013. From the results of three GCMs, in the mid-century period, drought hazard will slightly increase in the northwestern region and flatten with a decrease in the southwestern region. The outcomes will help to allocate agricultural adaptation plans under climate change condition in Bangladesh.

  5. Moving into Protected Areas? Setting Conservation Priorities for Romanian Reptiles and Amphibians at Risk from Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popescu, Viorel D.; Rozylowicz, Laurenţiu; Cogălniceanu, Dan; Niculae, Iulian Mihăiţă; Cucu, Adina Livia

    2013-01-01

    Rapid climate change represents one of the top threats to biodiversity, causing declines and extinctions of many species. Range shifts are a key response, but in many cases are incompatible with the current extent of protected areas. In this study we used ensemble species distribution models to identify range changes for 21 reptile and 16 amphibian species in Romania for the 2020s and 2050s time horizons under three emission scenarios (A1B = integrated world, rapid economic growth, A2A = divided world, rapid economic growth [realistic scenario], B2A = regional development, environmentally-friendly scenario) and no- and limited-dispersal assumptions. We then used irreplaceability analysis to test the efficacy of the Natura 2000 network to meet conservation targets. Under all scenarios and time horizons, 90% of the species suffered range contractions (greatest loses under scenarios B2A for 2020s, and A1B for 2050s), and four reptile species expanded their ranges. Two reptile and two amphibian species are predicted to completely lose climate space by 2050s. Currently, 35 species do not meet conservation targets (>40% representation in protected areas), but the target is predicted to be met for 4 - 14 species under future climate conditions, with higher representation under the limited-dispersal scenario. The Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions have the highest irreplaceability value, and act as climate refugia for many reptiles and amphibians. The Natura 2000 network performs better for achieving herpetofauna conservation goals in the future, owing to the interaction between drastic range contractions, and range shifts towards existing protected areas. Thus, conservation actions for herpetofauna in Romania need to focus on: (1) building institutional capacity of protected areas in the Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions, and (2) facilitating natural range shifts by improving the conservation status of herpetofauna outside protected areas

  6. Moving into protected areas? Setting conservation priorities for Romanian reptiles and amphibians at risk from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popescu, Viorel D; Rozylowicz, Laurenţiu; Cogălniceanu, Dan; Niculae, Iulian Mihăiţă; Cucu, Adina Livia

    2013-01-01

    Rapid climate change represents one of the top threats to biodiversity, causing declines and extinctions of many species. Range shifts are a key response, but in many cases are incompatible with the current extent of protected areas. In this study we used ensemble species distribution models to identify range changes for 21 reptile and 16 amphibian species in Romania for the 2020s and 2050s time horizons under three emission scenarios (A1B = integrated world, rapid economic growth, A2A = divided world, rapid economic growth [realistic scenario], B2A = regional development, environmentally-friendly scenario) and no- and limited-dispersal assumptions. We then used irreplaceability analysis to test the efficacy of the Natura 2000 network to meet conservation targets. Under all scenarios and time horizons, 90% of the species suffered range contractions (greatest loses under scenarios B2A for 2020s, and A1B for 2050s), and four reptile species expanded their ranges. Two reptile and two amphibian species are predicted to completely lose climate space by 2050s. Currently, 35 species do not meet conservation targets (>40% representation in protected areas), but the target is predicted to be met for 4 - 14 species under future climate conditions, with higher representation under the limited-dispersal scenario. The Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions have the highest irreplaceability value, and act as climate refugia for many reptiles and amphibians. The Natura 2000 network performs better for achieving herpetofauna conservation goals in the future, owing to the interaction between drastic range contractions, and range shifts towards existing protected areas. Thus, conservation actions for herpetofauna in Romania need to focus on: (1) building institutional capacity of protected areas in the Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions, and (2) facilitating natural range shifts by improving the conservation status of herpetofauna outside protected areas

  7. Moving into protected areas? Setting conservation priorities for Romanian reptiles and amphibians at risk from climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viorel D Popescu

    Full Text Available Rapid climate change represents one of the top threats to biodiversity, causing declines and extinctions of many species. Range shifts are a key response, but in many cases are incompatible with the current extent of protected areas. In this study we used ensemble species distribution models to identify range changes for 21 reptile and 16 amphibian species in Romania for the 2020s and 2050s time horizons under three emission scenarios (A1B = integrated world, rapid economic growth, A2A = divided world, rapid economic growth [realistic scenario], B2A = regional development, environmentally-friendly scenario and no- and limited-dispersal assumptions. We then used irreplaceability analysis to test the efficacy of the Natura 2000 network to meet conservation targets. Under all scenarios and time horizons, 90% of the species suffered range contractions (greatest loses under scenarios B2A for 2020s, and A1B for 2050s, and four reptile species expanded their ranges. Two reptile and two amphibian species are predicted to completely lose climate space by 2050s. Currently, 35 species do not meet conservation targets (>40% representation in protected areas, but the target is predicted to be met for 4 - 14 species under future climate conditions, with higher representation under the limited-dispersal scenario. The Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions have the highest irreplaceability value, and act as climate refugia for many reptiles and amphibians. The Natura 2000 network performs better for achieving herpetofauna conservation goals in the future, owing to the interaction between drastic range contractions, and range shifts towards existing protected areas. Thus, conservation actions for herpetofauna in Romania need to focus on: (1 building institutional capacity of protected areas in the Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions, and (2 facilitating natural range shifts by improving the conservation status of herpetofauna outside

  8. Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm Up or Overheat?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Schuurman, Gregor W; Monahan, William B; Ziesler, Pamela S

    2015-01-01

    Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979-2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041-2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Future visitation at almost all parks (95%) may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67-77% of months; range across future scenarios), resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8-23%) and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13-31 days). Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able to both

  9. Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm Up or Overheat?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas A Fisichelli

    Full Text Available Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979-2013 at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041-2060 based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87. Future visitation at almost all parks (95% may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67-77% of months; range across future scenarios, resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8-23% and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13-31 days. Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able

  10. Thermal comfort of people in the hot and humid area of China-impacts of season, climate, and thermal history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y; Chen, H; Wang, J; Meng, Q

    2016-10-01

    We conducted a climate chamber study on the thermal comfort of people in the hot and humid area of China. Sixty subjects from naturally ventilated buildings and buildings with split air conditioners participated in the study, and identical experiments were conducted in a climate chamber in both summer and winter. Psychological and physiological responses were observed over a wide range of conditions, and the impacts of season, climate, and thermal history on human thermal comfort were analyzed. Seasonal and climatic heat acclimatization was confirmed, but they were found to have no significant impacts on human thermal sensation and comfort. The outdoor thermal history was much less important than the indoor thermal history in regard to human thermal sensation, and the indoor thermal history in all seasons of a year played a key role in shaping the subjects' sensations in a wide range of thermal conditions. A warmer indoor thermal history in warm seasons produced a higher neutral temperature, a lower thermal sensitivity, and lower thermal sensations in warm conditions. The comfort and acceptable conditions were identified for people in the hot and humid area of China. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Effect of climatic change and afforestation on water yield in the Rocky Mountain Area of North China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Zhao

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: We studied effects of climatic variability and afforestation on water yield to make a quantitative assessment of the hydrological effects of afforestation on basin water yield in the Rocky Mountain Area of North China. Area of study: Seven typical forest sub-watersheds in Chaobai River watershed, located near Beijing’s Miyun Reservoir, were selected as our study object. Material and methods: Annual water yield model and Separate evaluation method were applied to quantify the respective contributions of changes in climate and different vegetation types on variations in runoff. Main results: Statistical analysis indicated precipitation did not vary significantly whereas the annual runoff decreased significantly in the past decades. Although forest increased significantly in the late 20th century, climatic variations have the strongest contribution to the reductions in runoff, with the average contribution reaching 63.24%, while the remainder caused by human activities. Afforestation has a more positive impact on the reduction in runoff, with a contribution of 65.5%, which was more than the grassland of 17.6% and the farmland of 16.9%. Research highlights: Compared to the impact of climatic change, we believe the large-scale afforestation may not be the main reason for the reductions in basin water yield.

  12. Top-down regulation, climate and multi-decadal changes in coastal zoobenthos communities in two Baltic Sea areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, Jens; Bergström, Lena; Gårdmark, Anna

    2013-01-01

    The structure of many marine ecosystems has changed substantially during recent decades, as a result of overexploitation, climate change and eutrophication. Despite of the apparent ecological and economical importance of coastal areas and communities, this aspect has received relatively little attention in coastal systems. Here we assess the temporal development of zoobenthos communities in two areas on the Swedish Baltic Sea coast during 30 years, and relate their development to changes in climate, eutrophication and top-down regulation from fish. Both communities show substantial structural changes, with a decrease in marine polychaetes and species sensitive to increased water temperatures. Concurrently, opportunistic species tolerant to environmental perturbation have increased in abundance. Species composition show a similar temporal development in both communities and significant changes in species composition occurred in both data sets in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The change in species composition was associated with large scale changes in climate (salinity and water temperature) and to the structure of the local fish community, whereas we found no effects of nutrient loading or ambient nutrient concentrations. Our results suggest that these coastal zoobenthos communities have gone through substantial structural changes over the last 30 years, resulting in communities of different species composition with potentially different ecological functions. We hence suggest that the temporal development of coastal zoobenthos communities should be assessed in light of prevailing climatic conditions considering the potential for top-down effects exerted by local fish communities.

  13. Federal employees health benefits program; medically underserved areas for 1998--OPM. Notice of medically underserved areas for 1998.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-09-02

    The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) has completed its annual calculation of the States that qualify as Medically Underserved Areas under the Federal Employees Health Benefits (FEHB) Program for the calendar year 1998. This is necessary to comply with a provision of FEHB law that mandates special consideration for enrollees of certain FEHB plans who receive covered health services in states with critical shortages of primary care physicians. Accordingly, for calendar year 1998, OPM's calculations show that the following States are Medically Underserved Areas under the FEHB Program: Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, South Carolina, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming. North Dakota has been removed from that list, with no new additions for 1998.

  14. Federal Employees Health Benefits Program, Medically Underserved Areas for 1999--OPM. Notice of medically underserved areas for 1999.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-09-03

    The Office of Personnel Management has completed its annual calculation of the States that qualify as Medically Underserved Areas under the Federal Employees Health Benefits (FEHB) Program for the calendar year 1999. This is necessary to comply with a provision of FEHB law that mandates special consideration for enrollees of certain FEHB plans who receive covered health services in states with critical shortages of primary care physicians. Accordingly, for calendar year 1999, OPM's calculations show that the following States are Medically Underserved Areas under the FEHB Program: Alabama, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Wyoming. West Virginia has been removed from the 1998 list, and Idaho and North Dakota have been added.

  15. Research for assessment, not deployment, of Climate Engineering: The German Research Foundation's Priority Program SPP 1689

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oschlies, Andreas; Klepper, Gernot

    2017-01-01

    The historical developments are reviewed that have led from a bottom-up responsibility initiative of concerned scientists to the emergence of a nationwide interdisciplinary Priority Program on the assessment of Climate Engineering (CE) funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG). Given the perceived lack of comprehensive and comparative appraisals of different CE methods, the Priority Program was designed to encompass both solar radiation management (SRM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) ideas and to cover the atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic realm. First, key findings obtained by the ongoing Priority Program are summarized and reveal that, compared to earlier assessments such as the 2009 Royal Society report, more detailed investigations tend to indicate less efficiency, lower effectiveness, and often lower safety. Emerging research trends are discussed in the context of the recent Paris agreement to limit global warming to less than two degrees and the associated increasing reliance on negative emission technologies. Our results show then when deployed at scales large enough to have a significant impact on atmospheric CO2, even CDR methods such as afforestation—often perceived as "benign"—can have substantial side effects and may raise severe ethical, legal, and governance issues. We suppose that before being deployed at climatically relevant scales, any negative emission or CE method will require careful analysis of efficiency, effectiveness, and undesired side effects.

  16. Stillwater Wildlife Management Area : Annual Water Management Program : January 1, 1972 to December 31, 1972

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This 1972 Annual Water Management Program for the Stillwater Wildlife Management Area summarizes the water receipts, distribution, and marsh conditions attributed to...

  17. Stillwater Wildlife Management Area : Annual Water Management Program : January 1, 1973 to December 31, 1973

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This 1973 Annual Water Management Program for the Stillwater Wildlife Management Area summarizes the water receipts, distribution, and marsh conditions attributed to...

  18. SPA AND CLIMATIC RESORTS (CENTERS AS RESOURCES OF PROGRAM OF SPORT RECREATION IMPLEMENTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivica Nikolić

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The aspiration of the civilized man is the improvement of work which aim is to achieve as big as possible effect of productivity and as small as possible participation of labour. The result of this process, which cannot be avoided, is some kind of fatigue that has hypocinaesiological characteristics in regard to demands of modern work process. The most effective way to fight against fatigue is to have an active holiday that is meaningfully programmed, led and carried out through movement of tourists, with the addition of natural factors, among which climate and healing waters are particularly important. These very resources characterize the tourist potential of Serbia and Montenegro with lots of available facilities at 1000 m height above the sea level and spa centers with springs and a complete offer physio-prophylactic procedures and following facilities for sport recreation. The implementation of programmed active holidays in to the corpus of tourist offer of Serbia and Montenegro represents prospective of development of tourism and tourist economy with effects of multiple importance as for participants, so for the level of tourist consumption. That will definitely influence the lengthening of tourist season as the primary goal of every catering establishment. Surveys show that the affection and viewpoints of potential tourists are especially directed towards engaging sport games and activities on and in the water, as part of the elementary tourist offer in spas and climatic resorts and their available facilities. Recommendationsand postulates of program of sport recreation, which are presented through four charts, are the basis of marketing strategy of appearance on tourist market with permanent education of management personnel and further research of potential market expanding. The publication and distribution of advertising materials are especially important, both at the market in our country and at the foreign market, where the abundance

  19. Impacts of management and climate change on nitrate leaching in a forested karst area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirnböck, Thomas; Kobler, Johannes; Kraus, David; Grote, Rüdiger; Kiese, Ralf

    2016-01-01

    Forest management and climate change, directly or indirectly, affect drinking water resources, both in terms of quality and quantity. In this study in the Northern Limestone Alps in Austria we have chosen model calculations (LandscapeDNDC) in order to resolve the complex long-term interactions of management and climate change and their effect on nitrogen dynamics, and the consequences for nitrate leaching from forest soils into the karst groundwater. Our study highlights the dominant role of forest management in controlling nitrate leaching. Both clear-cut and shelterwood-cut disrupt the nitrogen cycle to an extent that causes peak concentrations and high fluxes into the seepage water. While this effect is well known, our modelling approach has revealed additional positive as well as negative impacts of the expected climatic changes on nitrate leaching. First, we show that peak nitrate concentrations during post-cutting periods were elevated under all climate scenarios. The maximal effects of climatic changes on nitrate concentration peaks were 20-24 mg L(-1) in 2090 with shelterwood or clear-cut management. Second, climate change significantly decreased the cumulative nitrate losses over full forest rotation periods (by 10-20%). The stronger the expected temperature increase and precipitation decrease (in summer), the lesser were the observed nitrate losses. However, mean annual seepage water nitrate concentrations and cumulative nitrate leaching were higher under continuous forest cover management than with shelterwood-cut and clear-cut systems. Watershed management can thus be adapted to climate change by either reducing peak concentrations or long-term loads of nitrate in the karst groundwater. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Ontology development for provenance tracing in National Climate Assessment of the US Global Change Research Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Linyun; Ma, Xiaogang; Zheng, Jin; Goldstein, Justin; Duggan, Brian; West, Patrick; Aulenbach, Steve; Tilmes, Curt; Fox, Peter

    2014-05-01

    This poster will show how we used a case-driven iterative methodology to develop an ontology to represent the content structure and the associated provenance information in a National Climate Assessment (NCA) report of the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). We applied the W3C PROV-O ontology to implement a formal representation of provenance. We argue that the use case-driven, iterative development process and the application of a formal provenance ontology help efficiently incorporate domain knowledge from earth and environmental scientists in a well-structured model interoperable in the context of the Web of Data.

  1. Municipal climate protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alber, G. [Klima-Buendnis - Alianza Clima e.V., Climate Alliance of European Cities with Indigenous Rainforest Peoples (Germany)

    2002-11-01

    Municipal climate protection is not only an important contribution to protecting the Earth's climate, but also yields local benefits such as promoting industry, or reducing emissions and noise and, not least, provides incentives for innovation and new forms of cooperation. Nonetheless, climate protection remains a challenge, for there is still a long way to go until the necessary climate change policy targets are met. Therefore, the Climate Alliance has developed a methodology as a recommendation to local authorities for the strategic development of programs of action that encompass all activity areas of relevance to climate protection. It is to support local authorities from their initial decision to engage in climate protection right through to their monitoring of the performance of measures implemented. (orig.)

  2. CONVERSION OF THE HYDRO-CLIMATIC RESOURCES IN TOURISM ATTRACTORS IN ROŞIA MONTANĂ-ABRUD MINING AREA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JURJ MARIA-ADINA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyze water and climate resources from Roşia Montană-Abrud mining area and to emphasize the necessity to transform these resources into tourism attractors. The most significant water resources are the antrophogenic lakes called ”tăuri” which represent elements of great originality created for mining purposes. The first man-made lakes were created in order to activate the stamping mills used to grind the auriferous ores and occurred in this area since ancient times. These lakes have had an fundamental role during the millenary mining exploitation until the middle of 20th century, after which they had lost their significance during the industrial process, as a consequence of the 1948 nationalization. Previous research identified traces of a big number of lakes, out of which there are active only 9 in the present. Although these lakes play no role in modern mining, they have a high cultural value which can be capitalized through tourism activities. The mentioned area, due to its altitude, is also appropriate for practising mountain climatic therapy. Given the fact that water and climate resources inherently have a significant role when concerning outdoor activities, Roşia Montană-Abrud area is suitable for recreational nautical tourism, winter sports and mountain cure, but one has to consider that hidro-climatic resources are also important for rural tourism, agritourism, ecotourism etc., for which reason it is imperative to be provided adequate tourism planning and tourism promotion in order to capitalize them properly.

  3. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: An important first step for assessing impact of future climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dixit, Prakash N., E-mail: p.dixit@cgiar.org; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., > 30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with > 10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. - Highlights: • LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters. • LARS-WG can serve

  4. Data gathering and simulation of climate change impacts in mountainous areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachelet, D.; Baker, B.; Hicke, J.; Conklin, D.; McKelvey, K.

    2007-12-01

    High mountains include species most at risk in a warming environment and are a critical link in the water supply chain for both human and natural systems. Scientists are monitoring and simulating these systems as snowpack depth changes, snowmelt timing changes, frozen soils melt and destabilize, and low elevation populations migrate upslope. Natural climate cycles and human activities interact with climate change trends and complicate the interpretation of the signal we observe. For ex. over the past 4 years in Yunnan (China), we documented that herbaceous alpine meadows are contracting as forest tree line advances and alpine shrub biomass increases. This is a result of interactions between human land use alteration and observed shifts in climate. In North America as snowpack decreases, wolverines and lynx denning conditions are jeopardized as human pressure reduces their extent. Coarse scale vegetation shift models using downscaled future climate scenarios fail to capture complex terrain features and microclimatic conditions that can either ensure critical habitat for the in-situ survival of threatened species or make things worse (ex. rockfalls) for climate migrants. Recent simulation efforts focus on high resolution models that address aspect, slope, soil types, and microclimate variations that affect local and migrating plants, their associated pollinators and insect herbivores, modifying habitat availability for birds and mammals

  5. Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenzie, Donald; Littell, Jeremy S

    2017-01-01

    Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought-fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western USA, from temperate rainforest to desert. In the middle of this gradient, conditional on vegetation (fuels), correlations are strong, but outside this range the equivalence hotter and drier equals more fire either breaks down or is contingent on other factors such as previous-year climate. This suggests that the regional drought-fire dynamic will not be stationary in future climate, nor will other more complex contingencies associated with the variation in fire extent. Predictions of future wildfire area therefore need to consider not only vegetation changes, as some dynamic vegetation models now do, but also potential changes in the drought-fire dynamic that will ensue in a warming climate. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  6. Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenzie, Donald; Littell, Jeremy

    2017-01-01

    Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought–fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western USA, from temperate rainforest to desert. In the middle of this gradient, conditional on vegetation (fuels), correlations are strong, but outside this range the equivalence hotter and drier equals more fire either breaks down or is contingent on other factors such as previous-year climate. This suggests that the regional drought–fire dynamic will not be stationary in future climate, nor will other more complex contingencies associated with the variation in fire extent. Predictions of future wildfire area therefore need to consider not only vegetation changes, as some dynamic vegetation models now do, but also potential changes in the drought–fire dynamic that will ensue in a warming climate.

  7. Global high resolution versus Limited Area Model climate change projections over Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Déqué, Michel; Jones, R. G.; Wild, M.

    2005-01-01

    the 2071-2100 and the 1961-1990 means is compared with the same diagnostic obtained with nine Regional Climate Models (RCM) all driven by the Hadley Centre atmospheric GCM. The seasonal mean response for 2m temperature and precipitation is investigated. For temperature, GCMs and RCMs behave similarly......, except that GCMs exhibit a larger spread. However, during summer, the spread of the RCMs - in particular in terms of precipitation - is larger than that of the GCMs. This indicates that the European summer climate is strongly controlled by parameterized physics and/or high-resolution processes....... The temperature response is larger than the systematic error. The situation is different for precipitation. The model bias is twice as large as the climate response. The confidence in PRUDENCE results comes from the fact that the models have a similar response to the IPCC-SRES A2 forcing, whereas their systematic...

  8. Climate Change Impacts in Agricultural Communities in Rural Areas of Coastal Bangladesh: A Tale of Many Stories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazmul Huq

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper identifies and analyses climate change impacts, their cascading consequences and the livelihood implications of these impacts on smallholder agricultural communities of coastal Bangladesh. Six physically and socio-economically vulnerable communities of south-western coastal regions were studied. Primary data was collected through focus group discussions, a seasonal calendar, and historical transect analysis. Three orders of impacts of climate change on smallholder farmers are identified and described. The first order impacts involve increasing erosion of the capacity of local communities to mitigate vulnerability to climate change impacts. This situation led to the second order impacts, which significantly transformed the agricultural landscape and production patterns. The cumulative effects of the first and second order impacts sparked the third order impacts in the form of worsening community livelihood assets and conditions. The findings of this paper can contribute to the formulation of sustainable adaptation policies and programs to manage the vulnerability of local communities to climate change impacts in the country effectively.

  9. Responses of Crop Water Use Efficiency to Climate Change and Agronomic Measures in the Semiarid Area of Northern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jingting; Ren, Wei; An, Pingli; Pan, Zhihua; Wang, Liwei; Dong, Zhiqiang; He, Di; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin

    2015-01-01

    It has long been concerned how crop water use efficiency (WUE) responds to climate change. Most of existing researches have emphasized the impact of single climate factor but have paid less attention to the effect of developed agronomic measures on crop WUE. Based on the long-term field observations/experiments data, we investigated the changing responses of crop WUE to climate variables (temperature and precipitation) and agronomic practices (fertilization and cropping patterns) in the semi-arid area of northern China (SAC) during two periods, 1983-1999 and 2000-2010 (drier and warmer). Our results suggest that crop WUE was an intrinsical system sensitive to climate change and agronomic measures. Crops tend to reach the maximum WUE (WUEmax) in warm-dry environment while reach the stable minimum WUE (WUEmin) in warm-wet environment, with a difference between WUEmax and WUEmin ranging from 29.0%-55.5%. Changes in temperature and precipitation in the past three decades jointly enhanced crop WUE by 8.1%-30.6%. Elevated fertilizer and rotation cropping would increase crop WUE by 5.6-11.0% and 19.5-92.9%, respectively. These results indicate crop has the resilience by adjusting WUE, which is not only able to respond to subsequent periods of favorable water balance but also to tolerate the drought stress, and reasonable agronomic practices could enhance this resilience. However, this capacity would break down under impact of climate changes and unconscionable agronomic practices (e.g. excessive N/P/K fertilizer or traditional continuous cropping). Based on the findings in this study, a conceptual crop WUE model is constructed to indicate the threshold of crop resilience, which could help the farmer develop appropriate strategies in adapting the adverse impacts of climate warming.

  10. Impact of Climate Change on Rain-fed Farming and Response Solutions in Semiarid Area of Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WANG Hong-li

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change on the agriculture production in semi-arid areas of Northwest, the major drought-resistant technology, the mechanism of increasing grain production were analyzed to explore technical solutions to retort the future climate change, future development of rainfed agriculture, and provide reference for food security. The results showed that the impact of future climate change on crop growth had main three aspects: Firstly, higher temperatures resulted in lower crop yield and quality decline; Secondly, changes in precipitation and precipitation patterns resulted in drought/flooding problems; Thirdly, meteorological disasters caused by extreme weather lead to fluctuations of food production. To adapt or mitigate these adverse effects, increase use efficiency of limited rainfall, optimize soil structure, improve soil fertility, enhance withstanding environmental change ability of crop-soil system, mitigate the impact of future climate change on food production in semi-arid region of Northwest China, the mainly solutions were: (1 Covering gathered precipitation, improve the ability to accumulate soil moisture, change the distribution of soil moisture, regulate the migration and improve the infiltration of precipitation, thus “adjusting water” to adapt to precipitation changes; (2 Optimizing soil structure, physical and chemical properties by soil fertilization, thus “regulating soil” to improve the ability of crop-soil system against to environmental changes, in order to stabilize productivity of rainfed agriculture; (3 Integrate “adjusting water” and “regulating soil” technology, forming technical system of “coordination of water and soil” to comprehensively response to future climate change, mitigate the adverse impact of future climate change on food production in semi-arid region of Northwest, China.

  11. Responses of Crop Water Use Efficiency to Climate Change and Agronomic Measures in the Semiarid Area of Northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jingting; Ren, Wei; An, Pingli; Pan, Zhihua; Wang, Liwei; Dong, Zhiqiang; He, Di; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin

    2015-01-01

    It has long been concerned how crop water use efficiency (WUE) responds to climate change. Most of existing researches have emphasized the impact of single climate factor but have paid less attention to the effect of developed agronomic measures on crop WUE. Based on the long-term field observations/experiments data, we investigated the changing responses of crop WUE to climate variables (temperature and precipitation) and agronomic practices (fertilization and cropping patterns) in the semi-arid area of northern China (SAC) during two periods, 1983–1999 and 2000–2010 (drier and warmer). Our results suggest that crop WUE was an intrinsical system sensitive to climate change and agronomic measures. Crops tend to reach the maximum WUE (WUEmax) in warm-dry environment while reach the stable minimum WUE (WUEmin) in warm-wet environment, with a difference between WUEmax and WUEmin ranging from 29.0%-55.5%. Changes in temperature and precipitation in the past three decades jointly enhanced crop WUE by 8.1%-30.6%. Elevated fertilizer and rotation cropping would increase crop WUE by 5.6–11.0% and 19.5–92.9%, respectively. These results indicate crop has the resilience by adjusting WUE, which is not only able to respond to subsequent periods of favorable water balance but also to tolerate the drought stress, and reasonable agronomic practices could enhance this resilience. However, this capacity would break down under impact of climate changes and unconscionable agronomic practices (e.g. excessive N/P/K fertilizer or traditional continuous cropping). Based on the findings in this study, a conceptual crop WUE model is constructed to indicate the threshold of crop resilience, which could help the farmer develop appropriate strategies in adapting the adverse impacts of climate warming. PMID:26336098

  12. POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PLANT DIVERSITY OF HILLY AREAS OF AZAD KASHMIR AND THEIR MITIGATION: A REVIEW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. F. Akbar

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Azad Kashmir has variety of mountain ecosystems which are rich in floral and faunal diversity. These ecosystems are fragile and are under stress due to various natural and anthropogenic pressures. Mountain ecosystems of Azad Kashmir are more vulnerable to global warming and are expected to show its impacts rapidly. Climate change may cause major changes in distribution ranges of different vegetation types. As a result of climate change, the area of three vegetation groups (alpine, grassland/arid woodlands and deserts is expected to decrease and the areas of five types (cold conifer/mixed woodland, cold conifer/mixed forests, temperate conifer/mixed forests, warm conifer/mixed forests, and steppe/arid shrub lands are expected to increase. Climate change is going to affect conservation of plant species and ecosystems by causing direct loss of plant species and intensify the effects of existing threats such as habitat degradation, deforestation and over-harvesting of plants by local communities, pollution and invasive species. These stresses, acting individually and collectively on species, communities and ecosystems, are depleting and will continue to deplete biodiversity. The negative impacts of climate change are multi-dimensional and wide-ranging. Their mitigation requires an integrated and coordinated policy response for conservation of plant resources. These measures include a regular monitoring and observation system, restoration of degraded habitats and forests, identifying new solutions involving cross-sectoral linkages to conserve biological diversity of Azad Kashmir by supporting the intricate and complex responses of species and ecosystems to climate change.

  13. Climate and land use changes effects on soil organic carbon stocks in a Mediterranean semi-natural area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozano-García, Beatriz; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Parras-Alcántara, Luis

    2017-02-01

    A thorough knowledge of the effects of climate and land use changes on the soil carbon pool is critical to planning effective strategies for adaptation and mitigation in future scenarios of global climate and land use change. In this study, we used CarboSOIL model to predict changes in soil organic carbon stocks in a semi-natural area of Southern Spain in three different time horizons (2040, 2070, 2100), considering two general circulation models (BCM2 and ECHAM5) and three IPCC scenarios (A1b, A2, B2). The effects of potential land use changes from natural vegetation (Mediterranean evergreen oak woodland) to agricultural land (olive grove and cereal) on soil organic carbon stocks were also evaluated. Predicted values of SOC contents correlated well those measured (R2 ranging from 0.71 at 0-25cm to 0.97 at 50-75cm) showing the efficiency of the model. Results showed substantial differences among time horizons, climate and land use scenarios and soil depth with larger decreases of soil organic carbon stocks in the long term (2100 time horizon) and particularly in olive groves. The combination of climate and land use scenarios (in particular conversion from current 'dehesa' to olive groves) resulted in yet higher losses of soil organic carbon stocks, e.g. -30, -15 and -33% in the 0-25, 25-50 and 50-75cm sections respectively. This study shows the importance of soil organic carbon stocks assessment under both climate and land use scenarios at different soil sections and point towards possible directions for appropriate land use management in Mediterranean semi natural areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Different sensitivities of snowpacks to warming in Mediterranean climate mountain areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Moreno, J. I.; Gascoin, S.; Herrero, J.; Sproles, E. A.; Pons, M.; Alonso-González, E.; Hanich, L.; Boudhar, A.; Musselman, K. N.; Molotch, N. P.; Sickman, J.; Pomeroy, J.

    2017-07-01

    In this study we quantified the sensitivity of snow to climate warming in selected mountain sites having a Mediterranean climate, including the Pyrenees in Spain and Andorra, the Sierra Nevada in Spain and California (USA), the Atlas in Morocco, and the Andes in Chile. Meteorological observations from high elevations were used to simulate the snow energy and mass balance (SEMB) and calculate its sensitivity to climate. Very different climate sensitivities were evident amongst the various sites. For example, reductions of 9%-19% and 6-28 days in the mean snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow duration, respectively, were found per °C increase. Simulated changes in precipitation (±20%) did not affect the sensitivities. The Andes and Atlas Mountains have a shallow and cold snowpack, and net radiation dominates the SEMB; and explains their relatively low sensitivity to climate warming. The Pyrenees and USA Sierra Nevada have a deeper and warmer snowpack, and sensible heat flux is more important in the SEMB; this explains the much greater sensitivities of these regions. Differences in sensitivity help explain why, in regions where climate models project relatively greater temperature increases and drier conditions by 2050 (such as the Spanish Sierra Nevada and the Moroccan Atlas Mountains), the decline in snow accumulation and duration is similar to other sites (such as the Pyrenees and the USA Sierra Nevada), where models project stable precipitation and more attenuated warming. The snowpack in the Andes (Chile) exhibited the lowest sensitivity to warming, and is expected to undergo only moderate change (a decrease of <12% in mean SWE, and a reduction of < 7 days in snow duration under RCP 4.5). Snow accumulation and duration in the other regions are projected to decrease substantially (a minimum of 40% in mean SWE and 15 days in snow duration) by 2050.

  15. School climate and teachers' beliefs and attitudes associated with implementation of the positive action program: a diffusion of innovations model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beets, Michael W; Flay, Brian R; Vuchinich, Samuel; Acock, Alan C; Li, Kin-Kit; Allred, Carol

    2008-12-01

    Teacher- and school-level factors influence the fidelity of implementation of school-based prevention and social character and development (SACD) programs. Using a diffusion of innovations framework, the relationships among teacher beliefs and attitudes towards a prevention/SACD program and the influence of a school's administrative support and perceptions of school connectedness, characteristics of a school's climate, were specified in two cross-sectional mediation models of program implementation. Implementation was defined as the amount of the programs' curriculum delivered (e.g., lessons taught), and use of program-specific materials in the classroom (e.g., ICU boxes and notes) and in relation to school-wide activities (e.g., participation in assemblies). Teachers from 10 elementary schools completed year-end process evaluation reports for year 2 (N = 171) and 3 (N = 191) of a multi-year trial. Classroom and school-wide material usage were each favorably associated with the amount of the curriculum delivered, which were associated with teachers' attitudes toward the program which, in turn, were related to teachers' beliefs about SACD. These, in turn, were associated with teachers' perceptions of school climate. Perceptions of school climate were indirectly related to classroom material usage and both indirectly and directly related to the use of school-wide activities. Program developers need to consider the importance of a supportive environment on program implementation and attempt to incorporate models of successful school leadership and collaboration among teachers that foster a climate promoting cohesiveness, shared visions, and support.

  16. Detecting changes in surface water area of Lake Kyoga sub-basin using remotely sensed imagery in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nsubuga, F. W. N.; Botai, Joel O.; Olwoch, Jane M.; Rautenbach, C. J. deW; Kalumba, Ahmed M.; Tsela, Philemon; Adeola, Abiodun M.; Sentongo, Ausi A.; Mearns, Kevin F.

    2017-01-01

    Detection of changes in Earth surface features, for example lakes, is important for understanding the relationships between human and natural phenomena in order to manage better the increasingly scarce natural resources. This work presents a procedure of using modified normalised difference water index (MNDWI) to detect fluctuations of lake surface water area and relate it to a changing climate. The study used radiometrically and geometrically rectified Landsat images for 1986, 1995 and 2010 encompassing the Kyoga Basin lakes of Uganda, in order to investigate the changes in surface water area between the respective years. The standard precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) are applied to show the relationship between variability of surface water area and climate parameters. The present analysis reveals that surface water area fluctuation is linked to rainfall variability. In particular, Lake Kyoga sub-basin lakes experienced an increase in surface water area in 2010 compared to 1986. This work has important implications to water resources management for Lake Kyoga and could be vital to water resource managers across Ugandan lakes.

  17. The Effects of Heat Advection on UK Weather and Climate Observations in the Vicinity of Small Urbanized Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassett, Richard; Cai, Xiaoming; Chapman, Lee; Heaviside, Clare; Thornes, John E.

    2017-10-01

    Weather and climate networks traditionally follow rigorous siting guidelines, with individual stations located away from frost hollows, trees or urban areas. However, the diverse nature of the UK landscape suggests that the feasibility of siting stations that are truly representative of regional climate and free from distorting local effects is increasingly difficult. Whilst the urban heat island is a well-studied phenomenon and usually accounted for, the effect of warm urban air advected downwind is rarely considered, particularly at rural stations adjacent to urban areas. Until recently, urban heat advection (UHA) was viewed as an urban boundary-layer process through the formation of an urban plume that rises above the surface as it is advected. However, these dynamic UHA effects are shown to also have an impact on surface observations. Results show a significant difference in temperatures anomalies (p urban and rural areas. For example, urban heat advection from small urbanized areas (˜ 1 km2) under low cloud cover and wind speeds of 2-3 m s^{-1} is found to increase mean nocturnal air temperatures by 0.6°C at a horizontal distance of 0.5 km. Fundamentally, these UHA results highlight the importance of careful interpretation of long-term temperature data taken near small urban areas.

  18. Challenges of Climate Change: Resilience Efforts in Rural Communities of Kaliwlingi Village based on Pengembangan Kawasan Pesisir Tangguh (PKPT Program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustovia Azahro

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Kaliwlingi Village in Brebes City has experienced climate change impacts such as tidal flood and land abrasion. The climate change causes the dynamics of the coast and sea levels dramatically and fosters the coastal communities to have adaptation strategies. This paper aims to identify how the community of Kaliwlingi Village adapts to the climate change that affects to a social economic condition of the inhabitants. The study used qualitative method by interpreting data taken from PengembanganKawasanPesisirTangguh (PKPT program, interviews, and observations.The study highlights that PKPT program has a significant impact, especially regarding disaster mitigation. PKPT program is successful in collecting the common rules of the community to become social capital accommodated in the local institution. Furthermore, the PKPT Program is also fostering the local economy.

  19. Evaluation of DGVMs in tropical areas: linking patterns of vegetation cover, climate and fire to ecological processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Onofrio, Donatella; von Hardenberg, Jost; Baudena, Mara

    2017-04-01

    Many current Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), including those incorporated into Earth System Models (ESMs), are able to realistically reproduce the distribution of the most worldwide biomes. However, they display high uncertainty in predicting the forest, savanna and grassland distributions and the transitions between them in tropical areas. These biomes are the most productive terrestrial ecosystems, and owing to their different biogeophysical and biogeochemical characteristics, future changes in their distributions could have also impacts on climate states. In particular, expected increasing temperature and CO2, modified precipitation regimes, as well as increasing land-use intensity could have large impacts on global biogeochemical cycles and precipitation, affecting the land-climate interactions. The difficulty of the DGVMs in simulating tropical vegetation, especially savanna structure and occurrence, has been associated with the way they represent the ecological processes and feedbacks between biotic and abiotic conditions. The inclusion of appropriate ecological mechanisms under present climatic conditions is essential for obtaining reliable future projections of vegetation and climate states. In this work we analyse observed relationships of tree and grass cover with climate and fire, and the current ecological understanding of the mechanisms driving the forest-savanna-grassland transition in Africa to evaluate the outcomes of a current state-of-the-art DGVM and to assess which ecological processes need to be included or improved within the model. Specifically, we analyse patterns of woody and herbaceous cover and fire return times from MODIS satellite observations, rainfall annual average and seasonality from TRMM satellite measurements and tree phenology information from the ESA global land cover map, comparing them with the outcomes of the LPJ-GUESS DGVM, also used by the EC-Earth global climate model. The comparison analysis with the LPJ

  20. 200 Areas Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study ImplementationPlan - Environmental Restoration Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. J. Knepp.

    1999-04-19

    The 200 Areas Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study Implementation Plan - Environmental Restoration Program (Implementation Plan) addresses approximately 700 soil waste sites (and associated structures suchas pipelines) resulting from the discharge of liquids and solids fromprocessing facilities to the ground (e.g., ponds, ditches, cribs,burial grounds) in the 200 Areas and assigned to the Environmental Restoration Program. The Implementation Plan outlines the frameworkfor implementing assessment activities in the 200 Areas to ensure consistency in documentation, level of characterization, and decisionmaking. The Implementation Plan also consolidates background information and other typical work plan materials, to serve as a single referenceable source for this type of information.

  1. Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Yong Seung; Ha, Jongsik

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities.

  2. Skier and Snowboarder Motivations and Knowledge Related to Voluntary Environmental Programs at an Alpine Ski Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Christopher M.; Needham, Mark D.

    2011-11-01

    Many alpine ski areas have recently adopted voluntary environmental programs (VEPs) such as using recycling, renewable energy, and biofuels to help reduce their environmental impacts. Studies have addressed the performance of these VEPs in mitigating environmental impacts of this industry, but little is known about visitor awareness and perceptions of these programs. This article addresses this knowledge gap by exploring skier and snowboarder knowledge of VEPs at a ski area and the influence of these programs on their motivations to visit this area currently and behavioral intentions to visit again in the future. Data were obtained from an onsite survey at the Mt. Bachelor ski area in Oregon, USA ( n = 429, 89.7% response rate). Few skiers and snowboarders were knowledgeable of VEPs at this area and fewer than 20% were motivated to visit on their current trip because of these programs. Other attributes such as scenery, snow conditions, and access were more important for influencing visitation. Up to 38% of skiers and snowboarders, however, intend to visit this ski area more often if it adopts and promotes more VEPs. Managers can use these results to inform communication and marketing of their environmental programs and performance to visitors. Additional implications for management and future research are discussed.

  3. Ensemble forecasting shifts in climatically suitable areas for Tropidacris cristata (Orthoptera: Acridoidea: Romaleidae)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diniz, J.A.F.; Nabout, J.C.; Bini, L.M.

    2010-01-01

    1. The effects of climate change on species' ranges have been usually inferred using niche-based models creating bioclimatic envelopes that are projected into geographical space. Here, we apply an ensemble forecasting approach for niche models in the Neotropical grasshopper Tropidacris cristata (...

  4. Adaptation to climate change related risks in Dutch urban areas: stimuli and barriers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Runhaar, H.A.C.; Mees, H.L.P.; Wardekker, J.A.; Sluijs, J.P. van der; Driessen, P.P.J.

    Climate change is associated with various risks, such as flooding and heat stress. So far, most research has concentrated on the identification and quantification of these risks as well as the development of adaptation measures. Yet much less is known about how planners actually perceive and deal

  5. The use of woodland products to cope with climate variability in communal areas in Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woittiez, L.S.; Rufino, M.C.; Giller, K.E.; Mapfumo, P.

    2013-01-01

    Common lands provide smallholder farmers in Africa with firewood, timber, and feed for livestock, and they are used to complement human diets through the collection of edible nontimber forest products (NTFPs). Farmers have developed coping mechanisms, which they deploy at times of climatic shocks.

  6. Lateglacial and early Holocene vegetation and climate gradients in the Nordfjord–Alesund area, western Norway

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Birks, H.H.; Dinter, M. van

    2010-01-01

    Modern climate in western Norway shows a strong west–east gradient in oceanicity–continentality (coast to inner fjord) and altitudinal temperature gradients that control the regional and altitudinal zonation of vegetation. To discover if similar gradients existed during the Lateglacial and early

  7. Greenhouse technology for sustainable production in mild winter climate areas: Trends and needs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Montero, J.I.; Stanghellini, C.; Castilla, N.

    2009-01-01

    Greenhouse production in the near future will need to reduce significantly its environmental impact. For this purpose, elements such as the structure, glazing materials, climate equipments and controls have to be developed and wisely managed to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels, achieve maximum

  8. Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia, Raquel A.; Burgess, Neil David; Cabeza, Mar

    2012-01-01

    exposure of sub-Saharan African vertebrates to climatic changes. The future use and further development of bioclimatic envelope modelling will hinge on the interpretation of results in the light of methodological as well as biological uncertainties. Here, we provide a framework to address methodological...

  9. Simulation of thermal indoor climate in buildings by using human Projected Area Factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jørgen Erik

    2009-01-01

    Nowadays many new and old buildings in Denmark have large glass surfaces. This is a consequence of the technical development of windows with low U-values that has made it possible to build houses with windows from floor to ceiling in northern climates. On the other hand if one is sitting close to...... for dynamic building thermal analysis. The method is demonstrated in a newer apartment with windows from floor to ceiling and shows how impotent it is to include the radiant effect from the glass sur-faces and how it influences the indoor thermal climate significantly.......Nowadays many new and old buildings in Denmark have large glass surfaces. This is a consequence of the technical development of windows with low U-values that has made it possible to build houses with windows from floor to ceiling in northern climates. On the other hand if one is sitting close...... to these large windows on a cold winter day it is recognized that this can cause thermal discomfort. The calculation of this discomfort needs to be taken properly into account in the simulation of the thermal indoor climate and energy consumption of the rooms. The operative temperature can be used as a simple...

  10. Impact of Climate Variability on the Coastal Areas of Argentina and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Working on two pilot sites in each country, researchers will collect physical, social and economic data, and assess the impact of climate change in relation to land use regulations and watershed management. A comparative analysis of this information will enable the research team to produce a set of vulnerability and risk ...

  11. Rising temperatures and dwindling water supplies? Perception of climate change among residents of the Spanish Mediterranean tourist coastal areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    March, Hug; Saurí, David; Olcina, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    In this article, we discuss the results of a survey on the perception of climate change in the 14 "tourist zones" (as defined by the Spanish Statistical Institute, INE) that stretch from the French border to Gibraltar alongside the Spanish Mediterranean coast, including the Balearic Islands. Our sample consisted of 1,014 telephone interviews stratified according to the number of tourists staying in each zone. Respondents showed concern for the likely impacts of climate change on jobs and thought that climate change would reduce the economic activity of their areas. Responses were also pessimistic regarding future water availability but agreed with the development of alternative sources such as desalination and water re-use. Household size, educational levels, and employment tended to be the most significant statistical explanatory factors regarding attitudes toward climate change. Respondents in larger households (a variable not tested in the literature as far as we know), respondents with higher education, and respondents working for a wage tended to express more concerns than the rest.

  12. Risk Assessment in Relation to the Effect of Climate Change on Water Shortage in the Taichung Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiao, J.; Chang, L.; Ho, C.; Niu, M.

    2010-12-01

    Rapid economic development has stimulated a worldwide greenhouse effect and induced global climate change. Global climate change has increased the range of variation in the quantity of regional river flows between wet and dry seasons, which effects the management of regional water resources. Consequently, the influence of climate change has become an important issue in the management of regional water resources. In this study, the Monte Carlo simulation method was applied to risk analysis of shortage of water supply in the Taichung area. This study proposed a simulation model that integrated three models: weather generator model, surface runoff model, and water distribution model. The proposed model was used to evaluate the efficiency of the current water supply system and the potential effectiveness of two additional plans for water supply: the “artificial lakes” plan and the “cross-basin water transport” plan. A first-order Markov Chain method and two probability distribution models, exponential distribution and normal distribution, were used in the weather generator model. In the surface runoff model, researchers selected the Generalized Watershed Loading Function model (GWLF) to simulate the relationship between quantity of rainfall and basin outflow. A system dynamics model (SD) was applied to the water distribution model. Results of the simulation indicated that climate change could increase the annual quantity of river flow in the Dachia River and Daan River basins. However, climate change could also increase the difference in the quantity of river flow between wet and dry seasons. Simulation results showed that in current system case or in the additional plan cases, shortage status of water for both public and agricultural uses with conditions of climate change will be mostly worse than that without conditions of climate change except for the shortage status for the public use in the current system case. With or without considering the effect of

  13. Early pictures of global climate change impact to the coastal area (North West of Demak Central Java Indonesia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreas, Heri; Pradipta, Dhota; Abidin, Hasanuddin Z.; Sarsito, Dina A.

    2017-07-01

    In the last several decades we have been realized for the Global Climate Change situation. Some indicators are worldwide increasing temperature, decreasing volume of ice in Antarctica, and the sea level rise. Relating to the decreased of ice volume and the sea level rise, this situation has been predicted to endanger the living at the coastal area in the future. Prediction models have shown some coastal cities area would suffer flood by tidal inundation and even permanent flooding. Coincidently, today in the North West of Demak District Central Java Indonesia we literally can see the early picture of Global Climate Change impact to the coastal areas as mention. The occurrence of tidal inundation in this area was recognized at least in the early 2000 and even earlier, and in the recent years the tidal inundation comes not only at a high tide but even at the regular tide, and in fact some of this area are obviously sinking to the sea through times. This early picture is truly showing a disaster. Adaptation has been made in facing the disaster such as increasing the house and infrastructures, and built dyke. We have been done some investigations to this area by field observations (mapping the flooded area, interviewing people and seeing the adaptations, conduct GPS measurement to see deformation, etc.), gather information from digital media and also using remotely time series of high resolution satellite image data to mapping the tidal inundation in this area. We noted people increased their house and the local goverment elevated the road and the bridge, etc. regulary over less decade periode. Our conclusions said that the adaptation only made temporaly since the sea level keep rising worsening by the land subsidence significantly.

  14. Projection of Climate Change Based on Multi-Site Statistical Downscaling over Gilan area, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesta Afzali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The phenomenon of climate change and its consequences is a familiar topic which is associated with natural disasters such as, flooding, hurricane, drought that cause water crisis and irreparable damages. Studying this phenomenon is a serious warning regarding the earth’s weather change for a long period of time. Materials and Methods: In order to understand and survey the impacts of climate change on water resources, Global Circulation Models, GCMs, are used; their main role is analyzing the current climate and projecting the future climate. Climate change scenarios developing from GCMs are the initial source of information to estimate plausible future climate. For transforming coarse resolution outputs of the GCMs into finer resolutions influenced by local variables, there is a need for reliable downscaling techniques in order to analyze climate changes in a region. The classical statistical methods run the model and generate the future climate just with considering the time variable. Multi-site daily rainfall and temperature time series are the primary inputs in most hydrological analyses such as rainfall-runoff modeling. Water resource management is directly influenced by the spatial and temporal variation of rainfall and temperature. Therefore, spatial-temporal modeling of daily rainfall or temperature including climate change effects is required for sustainable planning of water resources. Results and Discussion: For the first time, in this study by ASD model (Automated regression-based Statistical Downscaling tool developed by M. Hessami et al., multi-site downscaling of temperature and precipitation was done with CGCM3.1A2 outputs and two synoptic stations (Rasht and Bandar Anzali simultaneously by considering the correlations of multiple sites. The model can process conditionally on the occurrence of precipitation or unconditionally for temperature. Hence, the modeling of daily precipitation involves two steps: one step

  15. Fog in a marginal agricultural area surrounded by montane Andean cloud forest during El Niño climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Santos, G.

    2010-07-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate temporal variations of water inputs, rainfall and fog (cloud water), and its contribution to the water balance in a marginal agricultural area of potato surrounded by tropical montane cloud forest in Colombia. Fog in the air boundary layer was estimated using a cylindrical fog collector. Liquid water content of fog events were evaluated before and during natural climate event of El Niño. Our study shows the temporal variation of these two water inputs in both daily and monthly cycles on Boyacá at 2900 m a.s.l. Rainfall was the most frequently observed atmospheric phenomenon, being present on average 62% of the days per year, whereas fog was 45% of the time. Reflected on the lower frequency, annual amount of fog was 11% of precipitation. However during the anomalous dry climate of El Niño, total amount of rainfall was negligible and the few fog events were the only water source for plant growth. Estimated water crop requirements were higher than the water inputs. The survival of the crops was explained by meteorological conditions during dew and fog events. High relative humidity might have eased the plant’s water stress by decreasing transpiration and temperature in leaves and soil, affecting the water balance and the heat exchange between the atmosphere-land interfaces in the marginal agricultural areas during exceptional dry climate.

  16. Climate Change Impact: The Experience of the Coastal Areas of Bangladesh Affected by Cyclones Sidr and Aila

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell Kabir

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Bangladesh is considered one of the countries most at risk to the effects of climate change and its coastal area is most vulnerable. This study tries to explore the experiences of cyclones Sidr and Aila affected people living in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. This study was conducted in the cyclone Sidr affected Amtali Upazila of Barguna District and in the cyclone Aila affected Koyra Upazila of Khulna District. Primary data collection was done using Focus Group Interview and then a thematic analysis approach was used for analysis. Three core themes emerged from the analysis and they are, firstly, impacts of climate change on the socioeconomic condition of the people, secondly, the impact on the health status of the population, and finally the impact on vulnerable people. Findings show that the effects of climate change have serious consequences on the livelihood patterns of the affected population and on their overall health status. As a result, the unfavorable health condition of these affected people makes them more vulnerable to various emerging diseases.

  17. Climate Change Impact: The Experience of the Coastal Areas of Bangladesh Affected by Cyclones Sidr and Aila.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabir, Russell; Khan, Hafiz T A; Ball, Emma; Caldwell, Kay

    2016-01-01

    Bangladesh is considered one of the countries most at risk to the effects of climate change and its coastal area is most vulnerable. This study tries to explore the experiences of cyclones Sidr and Aila affected people living in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. This study was conducted in the cyclone Sidr affected Amtali Upazila of Barguna District and in the cyclone Aila affected Koyra Upazila of Khulna District. Primary data collection was done using Focus Group Interview and then a thematic analysis approach was used for analysis. Three core themes emerged from the analysis and they are, firstly, impacts of climate change on the socioeconomic condition of the people, secondly, the impact on the health status of the population, and finally the impact on vulnerable people. Findings show that the effects of climate change have serious consequences on the livelihood patterns of the affected population and on their overall health status. As a result, the unfavorable health condition of these affected people makes them more vulnerable to various emerging diseases.

  18. The potential impact of invasive woody oil plants on protected areas in China under future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Guanghui; Yang, Jun; Lu, Siran; Huang, Conghong; Jin, Jing; Jiang, Peng; Yan, Pengbo

    2018-01-18

    Biodiesel produced from woody oil plants is considered a green substitute for fossil fuels. However, a potential negative impact of growing woody oil plants on a large scale is the introduction of highly invasive species into susceptible regions. In this study, we examined the potential invasion risk of woody oil plants in China's protected areas under future climate conditions. We simulated the current and future potential distributions of three invasive woody oil plants, Jatropha curcas, Ricinus communis, and Aleurites moluccana, under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) up to 2050 using species distribution models. Protected areas in China that will become susceptible to these species were then identified using a spatial overlay analysis. Our results showed that by 2050, 26 and 41 protected areas would be threatened by these invasive woody oil plants under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. A total of 10 unique forest ecosystems and 17 rare plant species could be potentially affected. We recommend that the invasive potential of woody oil plants be fully accounted for when developing forest-based biodiesel, especially around protected areas.

  19. Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area, The Netherlands : enhancing citizen's climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, Joop; Botzen, W. J Wouter; Terpstra, Teun

    2016-01-01

    Effective communication about climate change and related risks is complicated by the polarization between “climate alarmists” and “skeptics.” This paper provides insights for the design of climate risk communication strategies by examining how the interplay between climate change and flood risk

  20. Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area, The Netherlands: Enhancing citizen's climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, J.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Terpstra, T.

    2016-01-01

    Effective communication about climate change and related risks is complicated by the polarization between “climate alarmists” and “skeptics.” This paper provides insights for the design of climate risk communication strategies by examining how the interplay between climate change and flood risk

  1. Climatic Factors Driving Invasion of the Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into New Areas of Trentino, Northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellani, Cristina; Arnoldi, Daniele; Rizzoli, Annapaola

    2011-01-01

    Background The tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases transmitted by this species in Europe. Therefore, predicting suitable areas of future establishment and spread is essential for planning early prevention and control strategies. Methodology/Principal Findings To identify the areas currently most suitable for the occurrence of the tiger mosquito in the Province of Trento, we combined field entomological observations with analyses of satellite temperature data (MODIS Land Surface Temperature: LST) and human population data. We determine threshold conditions for the survival of overwintering eggs and for adult survival using both January mean temperatures and annual mean temperatures. We show that the 0°C LST threshold for January mean temperatures and the 11°C threshold for annual mean temperatures provide the best predictors for identifying the areas that could potentially support populations of this mosquito. In fact, human population density and distance to human settlements appear to be less important variables affecting mosquito distribution in this area. Finally, we evaluated the future establishment and spread of this species in relation to predicted climate warming by considering the A2 scenario for 2050 statistically downscaled at regional level in which winter and annual temperatures increase by 1.5 and 1°C, respectively. Conclusions/Significance MODIS satellite LST data are useful for accurately predicting potential areas of tiger mosquito distribution and for revealing the range limits of this species in mountainous areas, predictions which could be extended to an European scale. We show that the observed trend of increasing temperatures due to climate change could facilitate further invasion of Ae. albopictus

  2. Adaptation in Practice: How Managers of Nature Conservation Areas in Eastern England are Responding to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macgregor, Nicholas A.; van Dijk, Nikki

    2014-10-01

    Although good general principles for climate change adaptation in conservation have been developed, it is proving a challenge to translate them into more detailed recommendations for action. To improve our understanding of what adaptation might involve in practice, we investigated how the managers of conservation areas in eastern England are considering climate change. We used a written questionnaire and semi-structured interviews to collect information from managers of a range of different conservation areas. Topics investigated include the impacts of climate change perceived to be of the greatest importance; adaptation goals being set; management actions being carried out to achieve these goals; sources of information used; and perceived barriers to taking action. We identified major themes and issues that were apparent across the sites studied. Specifically, we found ways in which adaptation had been informed by past experience; different strategies relating to whether to accept or resist change; approaches for coping with more variable conditions; ways of taking a large-scale approach and managing sites as networks; some practical examples of aspects of adaptive management; and examples of the role that other sectors can play in both constraining and increasing a conservation area's capacity to adapt. We discuss the relevance of these findings to the growing discussion in conservation about identifying adaptation pathways for different conservation areas and a potential progression from a focus on resilience and incremental change to embracing "transformation." Though adaptation will be place-specific, we believe these findings provide useful lessons for future action in both England and other countries.

  3. Peri-urban areas and food-energy-water nexus sustainability and resilience strategies in the age of climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Magoni, Marcello; Menoni, Scira

    2017-01-01

    This book explores the nexus among food, energy and water in peri-urban areas, demonstrating how relevant this nexus is for environmental sustainability. In particular it examines the effective management of the nexus in the face of the risks and trade-offs of mitigation policies, and as a mean to create resilience to climate change. The book delineates strategies and actions necessary to develop and protect our natural resources and improve the functionality of the nexus, such as: integrated management of the major resources that characterize the metabolism of a city, stronger coordination among stakeholders who often weight differently the services that are relevant to their individual concerns, integration of efforts towards environmental protection, adaptation to and prevention of climate change and disaster risks mitigation.

  4. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 20 Appendix S - Historical Sea Ice Area Fraction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  5. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 21 Appendix T - Forecast Sea Ice Area Fraction.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  6. Greenhouse technology for sustainable production in mild winter climate areas: Trends and needs

    OpenAIRE

    Montero, J.I.; Stanghellini, C.; Castilla, N.

    2009-01-01

    Greenhouse production in the near future will need to reduce significantly its environmental impact. For this purpose, elements such as the structure, glazing materials, climate equipments and controls have to be developed and wisely managed to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels, achieve maximum use of natural resources such as solar radiation and water, and minimize the input of chemicals and fertilizers. This paper discusses the most relevant developments in greenhouse technology for mil...

  7. Mediterranean Habitat loss under future climate conditions – Adaptation options for Natura 2000 protected area sites.

    OpenAIRE

    MAURI ACHILLE; BARREDO CANO JOSE IGNACIO; CAUDULLO GIOVANNI

    2017-01-01

    Euro-Mediterranean ecosystems are widely recognized as a global hotspot of biodiversity, hosting nearly 25,000 plant species (of which 13,000 are endemic), and representing one of the main reservoirs of plant diversity in the world. For these reasons, Euro-Mediterranean ecosystems are considered a primary target for biodiversity conservation also in light of the services they provide to humans. Nevertheless, anthropogenic climate change is a serious threat for biodiversity conservation in thi...

  8. Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo Sanchez Martinez

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital and largest city of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. This paper attempts to forecast the impact of heat on mortality in Skopje in two future periods under climate change and compare it with a historical baseline period. Methods After ascertaining the relationship between daily mean ambient air temperature and daily mortality in Skopje, we modelled the evolution of ambient temperatures in the city under a Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP8.5 and the evolution of the city population in two future time periods: 2026–2045 and 2081–2100, and in a past time period (1986–2005 to serve as baseline for comparison. We then calculated the projected average annual mortality attributable to heat in the absence of adaptation or acclimatization during those time windows, and evaluated the contribution of each source of uncertainty on the final impact. Results Our estimates suggest that, compared to the baseline period (1986–2005, heat-related mortality in Skopje would more than double in 2026–2045, and more than quadruple in 2081–2100. When considering the impact in 2081–2100, sampling variability around the heat–mortality relationship and climate model explained 40.3 and 46.6 % of total variability. Conclusion These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate.

  9. [Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. IV. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in sub-humid warm-temperate irrigated wheat-maize agricultural area of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhi-juan; Yang, Xiao-guang; Wang, Wen-feng

    2011-04-01

    Based on the 1961-2007 observation data from 66 meteorological stations in the sub-humid and warm-temperate irrigated wheat-maize agricultural area of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal change characteristics of agro-climate resources for chimonophilous and thermophilic crops in the area in 1961-1980 and 1981-2007. The analyzed items included the length of temperature-defined growth season and the active accumulative temperature, sunshine hours, precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and aridity index during the temperature-defined growth season. With climate warming, the length of temperature-defined growth season of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops in the area in 1981-2007 extended by 7. 4 d and 6. 9 d, and the > or = 0 degrees C and > or = 10 degrees C accumulative temperature increased at a rate of 4.0-137.0 and 1.0-142.0 degrees C d (10 a)(-1), respectively, compared with those in 1961-1980. The sunshine hours during the temperature-defined growth season of the crops decreased markedly; and the precipitation during the temperature-defined growing season decreased in most parts of the area, being obvious in Hebei and north Shandong Province, but increased in north Anhui and southeast Henan Province. In most parts of the area, the reference evapotranspiration of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops during their temperature-defined growth season decreased, and the aridity index increased.

  10. Simulating the potential effects of climate change in two Colorado basins and at two Colorado ski areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battaglin, W.; Hay, L.; Markstrom, S.

    2011-01-01

    The mountainous areas of Colorado are used for tourism and recreation, and they provide water storage and supply for municipalities, industries, and agriculture. Recent studies suggest that water supply and tourist industries such as skiing are at risk from climate change. In this study, a distributed-parameter watershed model, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), is used to identify the potential effects of future climate on hydrologic conditions for two Colorado basins, the East River at Almont and the Yampa River at Steamboat Springs, and at the subbasin scale for two ski areas within those basins. Climate-change input files for PRMS were generated by modifying daily PRMS precipitation and temperature inputs with mean monthly climate-change fields of precipitation and temperature derived from five general circulation model (GCM) simulations using one current and three future carbon emission scenarios. All GCM simulations of mean daily minimum and maximum air temperature for the East and Yampa River basins indicate a relatively steady increase of up to several degrees Celsius from baseline conditions by 2094. GCM simulations of precipitation in the two basins indicate little change or trend in precipitation, but there is a large range associated with these projections. PRMS projections of basin mean daily streamflow vary by scenario but indicate a central tendency toward slight decreases, with a large range associated with these projections. Decreases in water content or changes in the spatial extent of snowpack in the East and Yampa River basins are important because of potential adverse effects on water supply and recreational activities. PRMS projections of each future scenario indicate a central tendency for decreases in basin mean snow-covered area and snowpack water equivalent, with the range in the projected decreases increasing with time. However, when examined on a monthly basis, the projected decreases are most dramatic during fall and

  11. A low cost Mobile Network System for monitoring climate and air quality of urban areas at high resolution: a preliminary application in Florence (IT) metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dibari, Camilla; Moriondo, Marco; Matese, Alessandro; Sabatini, Francesco; Trombi, Giacomo; Zaldei, Alessandro; Bindi, Marco

    2013-04-01

    The combination of the "Heat island effect" coupled with higher frequencies of extreme events (e.g. heat waves) due to climate change is of great concern for human health in urban areas. Anomalies of summer 2003, mentioned as possible typical climate for the near future summers (Schär et al., 2004), caused about 7,000 deaths in Italy and over 35,000 in the whole Europe. Furthermore, more than 50% of world's population is living in urban areas and, given the unprecedented urbanization rate that is expected in the next future, cities will likely be exposed to a growing environmental pressure in the following decades. Accordingly, climate monitoring of urban areas is gradually becoming a key element of planning that cannot be disregarded for an efficient public health management and for the development of a city scale Heat Waves Warning System tool, which is based on meteorological forecast of both air temperatures and humidity at a synoptic scale (Pascal et al., 2006). Building on these premises, a low cost Mobile Weather Station (MWS), to be placed on urban public transport, has been assembled. This mobile station logs every minute both meteorological variables (i.e. temperature and air humidity) and air quality parameters (i.e. atmospheric CO2 concentration and noise detection); the geographical position of each MWS's measurement is also recorded thanks to the built-in GPS antenna. The system, equipped with a data logger for data storage based on the open-source hardware platform Arduino, can also transmit data in real time via GPRS. The quality of meteorological and environmental data acquired by MWS was evaluated both on pre-existing steady meteorological stations of the metropolitan area of Florence (Petralli et al., 2010), and on professional research-grade data logger (Campbell CR800), logging air temperature in a non-aspirated shield by means of sensors at fast (thermocouple) and slower (digital) time response. Two prototypes of stations were thus designed

  12. Nature-based solutions to climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban areas: Perspectives on indicators, knowledge gaps, barriers, and opportunities for action

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N. Kabisch (Nadja); N. Frantzeskaki (Niki); S. Pauleit (Stephan); Naumann, S. (Sandra); Davis, M. (McKenna); M. Artmann (Martina); D. Haase (Dagmar); Knapp, S. (Sonja); Korn, H. (Horst); Stadler, J. (Jutta); Zaunberger, K. (Karin); Bonn, A. (Aletta)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractNature-based solutions promoting green and blue urban areas have significant potential to decrease the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of cities in light of climatic change. They can thereby help to mitigate climate change-induced impacts and serve as proactive adaptation

  13. Urbanization Effects on air Quality and Climate in the Acapulco Area Using a Prognostic Meteorological and air Quality Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortinez, A. A.; Garcia, A. R.; Jazcilevich, A. D.; Caetano, E.; Moya, M. N.; Delgado, J. C.

    2007-05-01

    The effects of urbanization growth on the Acapulco coastal metropolitan area were estimated by using a prognostic meteorological and air quality model. To this end three urbanization scenarios are proposed: The current Acapulco urban area that we call "Control Scenario" and two possible urban growths that we call "Scenario 1" and "Scenario 2". We estimated the urban growth of scenarios 1 and 2, using economic factors, population distribution and historical data. The urban distribution in the "Control Scenario" was taken from the aerial photographs of Acapulco and processed by a Geographic Information System (GIS).The variables devised for the scenarios comparison was a Comfort Index based on humidity and temperature and the Potential Exposure Index for Ozone. The model used was the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the Multiscale Climate and Chemistry Model (MCCM). Since there is no local information, the emissions were estimated by using data of similar socio- economic urban areas where emission data is available. The meteorology and air quality models were calibrated using data of a measuring campaign performed in December 2005. This is a preliminary effort to propose a planned urban expansion for Acapulco from the point of view of air quality and urban climate.

  14. Climate-change signals in national atmospheric deposition program precipitation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetherbee, Gregory A.; Mast, M. Alisa

    2016-01-01

    National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP)/National Trends Network precipitation type, snow-season duration, and annual timing of selected chemical wet-deposition maxima vary with latitude and longitude within a 35-year (1979–2013) data record for the contiguous United States and Alaska. From the NADP data collected within the region bounded by 35.6645°–48.782° north latitude and 124°–68° west longitude, similarities in latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of changing snow-season duration, fraction of annual precipitation recorded as snow, and the timing of chemical wet-deposition maxima, suggest that the chemical climate of the atmosphere is linked to physical changes in climate. Total annual precipitation depth has increased 4–6 % while snow season duration has decreased from approximately 7 to 21 days across most of the USA, except in higher elevation regions where it has increased by as much as 21 days. Snow-season precipitation is increasingly comprised of snow, but annually total precipitation is increasingly comprised of liquid precipitation. Meanwhile, maximum ammonium deposition occurs as much as 27 days earlier, and the maximum nitrate: sulfate concentration ratio in wet-deposition occurs approximately 10–21 days earlier in the year. The maximum crustal (calcium + magnesium + potassium) cation deposition occurs 2–35 days earlier in the year. The data suggest that these shifts in the timing of atmospheric wet deposition are linked to a warming climate, but the ecological consequences are uncertain.

  15. Which downscaled rainfall data for climate change impact studies in urban areas? Review of current approaches and trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gooré Bi, Eustache; Gachon, Philippe; Vrac, Mathieu; Monette, Frédéric

    2017-02-01

    Changes in extreme precipitation should be one of the primary impacts of climate change (CC) in urban areas. To assess these impacts, rainfall data from climate models are commonly used. The main goal of this paper is to report on the state of knowledge and recent works on the study of CC impacts with a focus on urban areas, in order to produce an integrated review of various approaches to which future studies can then be compared or constructed. Model output statistics (MOS) methods are increasingly used in the literature to study the impacts of CC in urban settings. A review of previous works highlights the non-stationarity nature of future climate data, underscoring the need to revise urban drainage system design criteria. A comparison of these studies is made difficult, however, by the numerous sources of uncertainty arising from a plethora of assumptions, scenarios, and modeling options. All the methods used do, however, predict increased extreme precipitation in the future, suggesting potential risks of combined sewer overflow frequencies, flooding, and back-up in existing sewer systems in urban areas. Future studies must quantify more accurately the different sources of uncertainty by improving downscaling and correction methods. New research is necessary to improve the data validation process, an aspect that is seldom reported in the literature. Finally, the potential application of non-stationarity conditions into generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution should be assessed more closely, which will require close collaboration between engineers, hydrologists, statisticians, and climatologists, thus contributing to the ongoing reflection on this issue of social concern.

  16. Evaluating the suitability of management strategies of pure Norway spruce forests in the Black Forest area of southwest Germany for adaptation to or mitigation of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Hanewinkel, Marc; Le Moguédec, Gilles

    2010-02-01

    The study deals with the problem of evaluating management strategies for pure stands of Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst) to balance adaptation to and mitigation of climate change, taking into account multiple objectives of a forest owner. A simulation and optimization approach was used to evaluate the management of a 1000 ha model Age-Class forest, representing the age-class distribution of an area of 66,000 ha of pure Norway spruce forests in the Black Forest region of Southwest Germany. Eight silvicultural scenarios comprising five forest conversion schemes which were interpreted as "adaptation" strategies which aims at increasing the proportion of Beech, that is expected to better cope with climate change than the existing Norway spruce, and three conventional strategies including a "Do-nothing" alternative classified as "mitigation", trying to keep rather higher levels of growing stock of spruce, were simulated using the empirical growth simulator BWINPro-S. A linear programming approach was adapted to simultaneously maximize the net present values of carbon sequestration and timber production subject to the two constraints of wood even flow and partial protection of the oldest (nature protection). The optimized plan, with the global utility of 11,687 /ha in forty years, allocated a combination of silvicultural scenarios to the entire forest area. Overall, strategies classified as "mitigation" were favored, while strategies falling into the "adaptation"-category were limited to the youngest age-classes in the optimal solution. Carbon sequestration of the "Do-nothing" alternative was between 1.72 and 1.85 million tons higher than the other alternatives for the entire forest area while the differences between the adaptation and mitigation approaches were approximately 133,000 tons. Sensitivity analysis showed that a carbon price of 21 /t is the threshold at which carbon sequestration is promoted, while an interest rate of above 2% would decrease the amount of

  17. Challenges of Family Physician Program in Urban Areas: A Qualitative Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabet Sarvestani, Raheleh; Najafi Kalyani, Majid; Alizadeh, Fariba; Askari, Alireza; Ronaghy, Hossain; Bahramali, Ehsan

    2017-07-01

    Family physicians play an essential role and act as a communicational bridge between people and the healthcare system in providing healthcare services efficiently and equitably. This study aimed at exploring the challenges of the family physician program in urban areas in Iran in 2015. This research had a descriptive exploratory design with a qualitative content analysis approach. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews between 2014 and 2015. Seventeen physicians enrolling in family physician program for at least two years were selected through purposeful sampling. Conventional content analysis was used to analyze the data. Coding and analysis of the interview data generated two categories and seven subcategories related to the challenges of the family physician program. The categories were poor infrastructure and poor incentive mechanism. Our findings captured a good picture of family physician program in urban areas to better clarify the challenges of the program and provide a foundation to plan and implement appropriate changes. Thus, our findings will give policymakers a deeper perception to confront the challenges of the family physician program in urban areas.

  18. Climate and health impacts of clean cookstove implementation programs in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacey, F.; Marais, E. A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Coffey, E.; Muvandimwe, D.; Hannigan, M.; Henze, D. K.

    2016-12-01

    In Africa, 77% of the population (646 million people in 2010) use solid fuels as the main cooking source. These cooking methods are often inefficient and result in significant burdens to both climate and human health, particularly for women and children. In order to fully understand the impacts of clean cookstove implementation programs, a better understanding of the background concentrations of aerosols, aerosol precursors, and ozone precursors are needed, along with improved information on the changes in emissions from transitions to newer technologies. Through the use of the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, we have calculated species-specific climate and health sensitivities using a range of African emissions estimates including EDGAR-HTAP and a more recent improved emissions inventory, DICE-Africa. These sensitivities account for the spatial heterogeneity of emissions with respect to their impacts and allow for efficient estimation of the impacts of various clean cookstove implementation emissions scenarios that are based on laboratory and field measurements of emissions factors, along with realistic adoption and usage rates from field surveys. The resulting estimates of premature deaths and global surface temperature change are then aggregated to the national scale in order to provide policy makers with improved information regarding the implementation of clean cookstoves throughout continental Africa.

  19. Not only climate change: mobility, vulnerability and socio-economic transformations in environmentally fragile areas in Bolivia, Senegal and Tanzania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tacoli, Cecilia

    2011-02-15

    This paper argues that migration is better defined as an adaptive response to socio-economic, cultural, political and environmental transformations, in most instances closely linked to the need to diversify income sources and reduce dependency on natural resources. Drawing on case studies in Bolivia, Senegal and Tanzania, it describes how environmental change at the local level interacts with other factors to shape migration patterns, and how such patterns in turn affect the livelihoods and resilience of individuals, households and communities in areas experiencing the impacts of climate change in the form of desertification, soil degradation, disrupted rainfall patterns and changes in temperature.

  20. Habitat area and climate stability determine geographical variation in plant species range sizes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morueta-Holme, Naia; Enquist, Brian J.; McGill, Brian J.

    2013-01-01

    Despite being a fundamental aspect of biodiversity, little is known about what controls species range sizes. This is especially the case for hyperdiverse organisms such as plants. We use the largest botanical data set assembled to date to quantify geographical variation in range size for ~85,000 ...... concerns over the potential effects of future climate change and habitat loss on biodiversity.......Despite being a fundamental aspect of biodiversity, little is known about what controls species range sizes. This is especially the case for hyperdiverse organisms such as plants. We use the largest botanical data set assembled to date to quantify geographical variation in range size for ~85...

  1. Quantitative Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Water-Surface Area Variations from the 1990s to 2013 in Honghu Lake, China

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bianrong Chang; Rendong Li; Chuandong Zhu; Kequn Liu

    2015-01-01

      The water-surface areas of the lakes in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China, have undergone significant changes under the combined impacts of global climate change and local anthropogenic stress...

  2. Effect of the learning climate of residency programs on faculty's teaching performance as evaluated by residents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lombarts, Kiki M. J. M. H.; Heineman, Maas Jan; Scherpbier, Albert J. J. A.; Arah, Onyebuchi A.

    2014-01-01

    To understand teaching performance of individual faculty, the climate in which residents' learning takes place, the learning climate, may be important. There is emerging evidence that specific climates do predict specific outcomes. Until now, the effect of learning climate on the performance of the

  3. Ranking of CMIP5-based global climate models for India using compromise programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasa Raju, K.; Sonali, P.; Nagesh Kumar, D.

    2017-05-01

    Thirty-six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5-based global climate models (GCMs) are explored to evaluate the performance of maximum ( T max) and minimum ( T min) temperature simulations for India covering 40 grid points. Three performance indicators used for evaluating GCMs are correlation coefficient (CC), normalised root mean square error (NRMSE) and skill score (SS). Entropy method is applied to compute the weights of the three indicators employed. However, equal weights are also considered as part of sensitivity analysis studies. Compromise programming (CP), a distance-based decision-making technique, is employed to rank the GCMs. Group decision-making approach is used to aggregate the ranking patterns obtained for individual grid points. A simple but effective ensemble approach is also suggested.

  4. Nevada Test Site 2000 Annual Data Report: Groundwater Monitoring Program Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Y. E.Townsend

    2001-02-01

    This report is a compilation of the calendar year 2000 groundwater sampling results from the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS). Contamination indicator data are presented in control chart and tabular form with investigation levels (IL) indicated. Gross water chemistry data are presented in graphical and tabular form. Other information in the report includes, the Cumulative Chronology for Area 5 RWMS Groundwater Monitoring Program, a brief description of the site hydrogeology, and the groundwater sampling procedure.

  5. Large marine protected areas represent biodiversity now and under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, T E; Maxwell, S M; Kaschner, K; Garilao, C; Ban, N C

    2017-08-29

    Large marine protected areas (>30,000 km2) have a high profile in marine conservation, yet their contribution to conservation is contested. Assessing the overlap of large marine protected areas with 14,172 species, we found large marine protected areas cover 4.4% of the ocean and at least some portion of the range of 83.3% of the species assessed. Of all species within large marine protected areas, 26.9% had at least 10% of their range represented, and this was projected to increase to 40.1% in 2100. Cumulative impacts were significantly higher within large marine protected areas than outside, refuting the critique that they only occur in pristine areas. We recommend future large marine protected areas be sited based on systematic conservation planning practices where possible and include areas beyond national jurisdiction, and provide five key recommendations to improve the long-term representation of all species to meet critical global policy goals (e.g., Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi Targets).

  6. Innoversity in knowledge-for-action and adaptation to climate change: the first steps of an 'evidence-based climatic health' transfrontier training program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapaige, Véronique; Essiembre, Hélène

    2010-01-01

    It has become increasingly clear to the international scientific community that climate change is real and has important consequences for human health. To meet these new challenges, the World Health Organization recommends reinforcing the adaptive capacity of health systems. One of the possible avenues in this respect is to promote awareness and knowledge translation in climatic health, at both the local and global scales. Within such perspective, two major themes have emerged in the field of public health research: 1) the development of advanced training adapted to 'global environment' change and to the specific needs of various groups of actors (doctors, nurses, public health practitioners, health care managers, public service managers, local communities, etc) and 2) the development of strategies for implementing research results and applying various types of evidence to the management of public health issues affected by climate change. Progress on these two fronts will depend on maximum innovation in transdisciplinary and transsectoral collaborations. The general purpose of this article is to present the program of a new research and learning chair designed for this double set of developmental objectives - a chair that emphasizes 'innoversity' (the dynamic relationship between innovation and diversity) and 'transfrontier ecolearning for adaptive actions'. The Écoapprentissages, santé mentale et climat collaborative research chair (University of Montreal and Quebec National Public Health Institute) based in Montreal is a center for 'transdisciplinary research' on the transfrontier knowledge-for-action that can aid adaptation of the public health sector, the public mental health sector, and the public service sector to climate change, as well as a center for complex collaborations on evidence-based climatic health 'training'. This program-focused article comprises two main sections. The first section presents the 'general' and 'specific contexts' in which the

  7. Health hazards in areas of military operations conducted in different climatic and sanitary conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korzeniewski, Krzysztof

    2011-01-01

    This paper reviews the most common health hazards occurring among personnel of peacekeeping and stabilization missions functioning within armed conflicts in the contemporary world. Military operations have been executed in diverse climatic and sanitary conditions, which are frequently unfamiliar for their participants. Some of them, e.g. the UN peacekeeping missions in the Middle East (Lebanon, the Golan Heights), have been carried out in a relatively stable geopolitical environment; whereas, stabilization missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, which are actually combat activities, undoubtedly fall into the group of the most perilous military operations in the world. Hot or cold climate, poor sanitary and hygienic conditions along with warfare facilitate the occurrence of numerous diseases and body injuries not only among the local people but also among peacekeepers, who represent the population of immigrants. Health hazards which pose major epidemiological threats in combat zones are arthropod-borne, food and water-borne, respiratory tract diseases, sexually transmitted diseases, enzootic diseases, battle injuries, and non- -battle injuries, e.g. traffic accidents. Another considerable health problem are psychiatric disorders, which can either appear directly after the occurrence of a traumatic event in a combat zone or indirectly, after some time had elapsed. In addition to the health hazards listed above, environmental factors such as changeable weather conditions and local fauna may also be life threatening.

  8. Investigating future climate change impacts on drougt patterns over the Euro-Mediterranean area based on a probabilistic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonaccorso, Brunella; Peres, David Johnny; Cancelliere, Antonino

    2017-04-01

    As extensively documented by the IPCC assessment reports, impacts from recent climate-related extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones and wildfires, reveal significant vulnerability of many environmental and anthropic systems to climate change. Compared to other extreme weather events, droughts evolve slowly in time. Based on this feature, effective drought preparedness and mitigation strategies could be implemented by decision makers, if appropriate tools, able to anticipate drought evolution in time and space, were available. Climate models' projections combined with probabilistic tools for drought characterization could help in understanding the time evolution of drought hazard in the future. Within the delineated context, the aim of the present study is to investigate potential scenarios of space-time variability of drought occurrences over Europe, by comparing the return periods of design drought events for different future time intervals. More specifically, annual precipitation data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) of the Med-CORDEX initiative, covering the Euro-Mediterranean area (Northern Africa and Southern and Central Europe) at a grid resolution of about 50 km, are used to assess drought characteristics for three future periods (i.e. 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100), and compared to those in the baseline period (1971-2000). Specifically, three precipitation RCM datasets - produced by the CMMC (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, IT), the LMD (Laboratorie del Météorologie Dynamique, FR) and the GUF (Goethe University Frankfurt, DE) - for two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 4.5 (intermediate) and RCP8.5 (high emissions), are considered for multi-year drought identification and characterization. First, the goodness of fit of several probability distributions to the considered precipitation gridded dataset is examined cell by cell by the Lilliefors test, and the best distribution is chosen for each cell based on

  9. The NextData Project: a national Italian system for the retrieval, storage, access and diffusion of environmental and climate data from mountain and marine areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provenzale, Antonello

    2013-04-01

    Mountains are sentinels of climate and environmental change and many marine regions provide information on past climate variations. The Project of Interest NextData will favour the implementation of measurement networks in remote mountain and marine areas and will develop efficient web portals to access meteoclimatic and atmospheric composition data, past climate information from ice and sediment cores, biodiversity and ecosystem data, measurements of the hydrological cycle, marine reanalyses and climate projections at global and regional scale. New data on the present and past climatic variability and future climate projections in the Alps, the Himalaya-Karakoram, the Mediterranean region and other areas of interest will be obtained and made available. The pilot studies conducted during the project will allow for obtaining new estimates on the availability of water resources and on the effects of atmospheric aerosols on high-altitude environments, as well as new assessments of the impact of climate change on ecosystems, health and societies in mountain regions. The system of archives and the scientific results produced by the NextData project will provide a unique data base for research, for environmental management and for the estimate of climate change impacts, allowing for the development of knowledge-based environmental and climate adaptation policies.

  10. Ontology development for provenance tracing in National Climate Assessment of the US Global Change Research Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, X.; Zheng, J. G.; Goldstein, J.; Duggan, B.; Xu, J.; Du, C.; Akkiraju, A.; Aulenbach, S.; Tilmes, C.; Fox, P. A.

    2013-12-01

    The periodical National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) [1] produces reports about findings of global climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States. Those findings are of great public and academic concerns and are used in policy and management decisions, which make the provenance information of findings in those reports especially important. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS), in which the NCA reports and associated provenance information are the primary records. We were modeling and developing Semantic Web applications for the GCIS. By applying a use case-driven iterative methodology [2], we developed an ontology [3] to represent the content structure of a report and the associated provenance information. We also mapped the classes and properties in our ontology into the W3C PROV-O ontology [4] to realize the formal presentation of provenance. We successfully implemented the ontology in several pilot systems for a recent National Climate Assessment report (i.e., the NCA3). They provide users the functionalities to browse and search provenance information with topics of interest. Provenance information of the NCA3 has been made structured and interoperable by applying the developed ontology. Besides the pilot systems we developed, other tools and services are also able to interact with the data in the context of the 'Web of data' and thus create added values. Our research shows that the use case-driven iterative method bridges the gap between Semantic Web researchers and earth and environmental scientists and is able to be deployed rapidly for developing Semantic Web applications. Our work also provides first-hand experience for re-using the W3C PROV-O ontology in the field of earth and environmental sciences, as the PROV-O ontology is recently ratified (on 04/30/2013) by the W3C as a recommendation and relevant applications are still rare. [1] http

  11. Climate change and the development of mountain areas: what do we need to know and for what types of action?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didier Richard

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is today a reality at both the international and more local levels. Recent studies have focussed mainly on analysing the consequences of climate change. The present article seeks to examine and qualify the impact of climate change in the mountain areas of the Alps. A first line of enquiry concerns the changing level of danger in the mountain environment. Are mountain areas becoming more dangerous and, if so, in terms of what types of risks and to what degree? However, adopting an approach based on an analysis of natural hazards and their dynamics in response to climate change cannot ignore the economic activities and types of development that already exist in these areas. In this respect, the tourism economy is predominant in mountain regions. Its durability and vitality undoubtedly constitute a priority for local actors. It is not surprising therefore that the latter have set up strategies for adapting to climate change. For planners and decision-makers to ensure integrated approaches in dealing with climate change, it is important that the complex links between natural risks and the types of development in mountain areas are better understood, which calls for a more detailed analysis of the environment in terms of territorial vulnerability.Le changement climatique est aujourd’hui une réalité au niveau international comme à celui des territoires locaux. Les travaux récents mettent préférentiellement l’accent sur l’analyse des conséquences du changement climatique. Cet article se propose de questionner et de qualifier l’impact du changement climatique dans les territoires montagnards des Alpes. Un premier axe de réflexion concerne l’évolution de la dangerosité de la montagne. Une montagne plus dangereuse se profile-t-elle ? Selon quels types de risques et avec quelles intensités ? Cependant, l’approche des risques naturels et de leur dynamique face au changement climatique ne saurait occulter le type d

  12. [Vertical patterns of plant species diversity in the Baishuijiang Nature Reserve: explanation of area, climate and boundary constraint].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Zhi; Gong, Da-jie; Zhang, Qian; Zhao, Hai-bin

    2014-12-01

    The linear regression models and variation partitioning method were used to analyze the relative and pure effects of area, climate, and boundary constraint on altitudinal patterns of plant species diversity in the Baishuijiang Natural Reserve. The results showed that diversities of overall plant species and different group species exhibited humped-shaped patterns and the peaks were below the mid-point of the elevation span. The patterns were shaped by all factors together. The explanatory power of water-energy hypothesis for the pattern was the strongest. Area acted as a secondary factor the patterns. Boundary constraint effect was a complementary mechanism to explain the plant species diversity altitudinal patterns in Baishuijiang region. The explanatory powers of boundary constraint for different-range species were clearly different. With the increase of species range, boundary constraint showed an increasingly strong correlation with richness patterns.

  13. The record of climatic change in the geological archives of shallow marine, coastal, and adjacent lowland areas of Northern Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerdes, G.; Petzelberger, B. E. M.; Scholz-Böttcher, B. M.; Streif, H.

    2003-01-01

    The record of climatic change in shallow marine, coastal, and adjacent lowland areas has been investigated by three different approaches. A mass balance study focused on the interaction between sea-level rise and Holocene sediment accumulation in the coastal lowland area between the Ems and Weser rivers on the German North Sea coast. This region, which comprises various sedimentary environments, such as barrier islands, sheltered and open tidal flats, bay flats, and estuaries, is highly suitable for such quantitative studies, which can be used to create a model for general mass transport and accumulation processes connected with transgressions over coastal lowlands. An integrated geochemical and microfacies study was made to assess the response of shallow marine, intertidal, and limnic-semiterrestrial environments to the climate-controlled Holocene sea-level rise. The factors controlling the development of various palaeoenvironments were estimated from the distribution of biomarkers, major and trace elements, diatoms, foraminifera and sedimentary structures observed at high resolution in core sections. These data complement those of conventional geological, lithostratigraphical, archaeological and geobotanical investigations. The extensive raised bogs which occur in the Pleistocene hinterland, adjacent to the coastal zone, provided an excellent opportunity to examine peat formation in response to climatic changes in the past. On the basis of a large number of 14C-age determinations special attention was paid to the onset and regional expansion of raised bogs in this region and to the question of whether or not the formation of raised bog peat started synchronously in one or in a series of different phases.

  14. Climate Variability in the Subarctic Area for the Last Two Millennia: Influence of North Atlantic Sector and Millennial Trend.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolle, M.; Debret, M.; Massei, N.; Hormes, A.; Swingedouw, D.; Christophe, C.; de Vernal, A.; Arctic 2k Working Group

    2016-12-01

    Understanding climate variability for the last two millennia is an key issue to propose new constraints on climate modeling. This study is based on the Arctic2k database compiled by the PAGES Arctic2k working group. All records meet several quality criteria concerning location, time period span, resolution and age-dating control. All the proxy used are sensitivity to temperature changes. The database high quality allows to investigate climate variability from millennial trend to high frequencies. There is spatially heterogeneous record distribution throughout the Arctic-subarctic area, most of the archives being located in the North Atlantic sector. We divided the study region into 3 sectors (Siberia, Alaska and North Atlantic areas) and compared them to the global Arctic2k temperature reconstruction using statistics and signal analysis method (wavelet coherence). Wavelet coherence allows investigation of the relationships in time-frequency space between two time series and identification of common variability. The results highlight better significant correlations between North Atlantic and global Arctic signals. The results is confirmed by wavelet coherence, showing common variability at centennial to multi-centennial scales. Millennial trends showed significant cooling trends before 1900 A.D., except for two records. Cooling trends are consistent with reconstructed temperatures for north hemisphere and warming trends seemed to be the results of regional particularity. Studying millennial variability also highlights the inconsistency between some marine proxies which reflect summer temperatures. The characterization of centennial to multidecadal variability will be an important issue to link the high frequency variability of paleoclimate series to low frequency variability recorded by instrumental data.

  15. Priority setting for bird conservation in Mexico: the role of the Important Bird Areas program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma. del Coro Arizmendi; Laura Marquez Valdelamar; Humberto Berlanga

    2005-01-01

    Many species in Mexico are threatened and in need of protection. At least seventy species are considered to be globally threatened, yet conservation actions have been scarce and not coordinated. In 1996 BirdLife International’s Important Bird Areas Program was initiated in Mexico to identify a network of the most important places in Mexico for birds, with the...

  16. 50 CFR 648.60 - Sea scallop area access program requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Management Measures for the Atlantic Sea Scallop Fishery § 648.60 Sea scallop area access program....83(a)(1), and the additional restrictions for Atlantic cod, haddock, and yellowtail flounder... (d)(4). (A) Atlantic cod. Such vessel may bring onboard and possess only up to 100 lb (45.4 kg) of...

  17. Hydrologic resources management program and underground test area operable unit fy 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, D. F., LLNL

    1998-05-01

    This report present the results of FY 1997 technical studies conducted by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) as part of the Hydrology and Radionuclide Migration Program (HRMP) and Underground Test Area Operable Unit (UGTA). The HRMP is sponsored by the US Department of Energy to assess the environmental (radiochemical and hydrologic) consequences of underground nuclear weapons testing at the Nevada Test Site.

  18. Findings From the National Machine Guarding Program: Safety Climate, Hazard Assessment, and Safety Leadership in Small Metal Fabrication Businesses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, David L; Yamin, Samuel; Xi, Min; Gordon, Robert; Most, Ivan; Stanley, Rod

    2017-12-01

    This manuscript assesses safety climate data from the National Machine Guarding Program (NMGP)-a nationwide intervention to improve machine safety. Baseline safety climate surveys were completed by 2161 employees and 341 owners or managers at 115 businesses. A separate onsite audit of safety management practices and machine guarding equipment was conducted at each business. Safety climate measures were not correlated with machine guarding or safety management practices. The presence of a safety committee was correlated with higher scores on the safety management audit when contrasted with those without one. The presence of a safety committee is easily assessed and provides a basis on which to make recommendations with regard to how it functions. Measures of safety climate fail to provide actionable information. Future research on small manufacturing firms should emphasize the presence of an employee-management safety committee.

  19. [Prediction and simulation of urban area expansion in Pearl River Delta Region under the RCPs climate scenarios].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Oun-ou; Deng, Xiang-zheng; Ke, Xin-li; Zhao, Chun-hong; Zhang, Wei

    2014-12-01

    The sizes and number of cities in China are increasing rapidly and complicated changes of urban land use system have occurred as the social economy develops rapidly. This study took the urban agglomeration of Pearl River Delta Region as the study area to explore the driving mechanism of dynamic changes of urban area in the urbanization process under the joint influence of natural environment and social economic conditions. Then the CA (cellular automata) model was used to predict and simulate the urban area changes until 2030 under the designed scenarios of planning and RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The results indicated that urbanization was mainly driven by the non-agricultural population growth and social-economic development, and the transportation had played a fundamental role in the whole process, while the areas with high elevation or steep slope restricted the urbanization. Besides, the urban area would keep an expanding trend regardless of the scenarios, however, the expanding speed would slow down with different inflection points under different scenarios. The urban expansion speed increased in the sequence of the planning scenario, MESSAGE scenario and AIM scenario, and that under the MESSAGE climate scenario was more consistent with the current urban development trend. In addition, the urban expansion would mainly concentrate in regions with the relatively high urbanization level, e.g., Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Shenzhen, Zhanjiang and Chaoshan.

  20. Soil organic carbon distribution in Mediterranean areas under a climate change scenario via multiple linear regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olaya-Abril, Alfonso; Parras-Alcántara, Luis; Lozano-García, Beatriz; Obregón-Romero, Rafael

    2017-08-15

    Over time, the interest on soil studies has increased due to its role in carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems, which could contribute to decreasing atmospheric CO 2 rates. In many studies, independent variables were related to soil organic carbon (SOC) alone, however, the contribution degree of each variable with the experimentally determined SOC content were not considered. In this study, samples from 612 soil profiles were obtained in a natural protected (Red Natura 2000) of Sierra Morena (Mediterranean area, South Spain), considering only the topsoil 0-25cm, for better comparison between results. 24 independent variables were used to define it relationship with SOC content. Subsequently, using a multiple linear regression analysis, the effects of these variables on the SOC correlation was considered. Finally, the best parameters determined with the regression analysis were used in a climatic change scenario. The model indicated that SOC in a future scenario of climate change depends on average temperature of coldest quarter (41.9%), average temperature of warmest quarter (34.5%), annual precipitation (22.2%) and annual average temperature (1.3%). When the current and future situations were compared, the SOC content in the study area was reduced a 35.4%, and a trend towards migration to higher latitude and altitude was observed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Community-based Participatory Process – Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program for Northern First Nations and Inuit in Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diane McClymont Peace

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Health Canada's Program for Climate Change and Health Adaptation in Northern First Nation and Inuit Communities is unique among Canadian federal programs in that it enables community-based participatory research by northern communities. Study design: The program was designed to build capacity by funding communities to conduct their own research in cooperation with Aboriginal associations, academics, and governments; that way, communities could develop health-related adaptation plans and communication materials that would help in adaptation decision-making at the community, regional, national and circumpolar levels with respect to human health and a changing environment. Methods: Community visits and workshops were held to familiarize northerners with the impacts of climate change on their health, as well as methods to develop research proposals and budgets to meet program requirements. Results: Since the launch of the Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program in 2008, Health Canada has funded 36 community projects across Canada's North that focus on relevant health issues caused by climate change. In addition, the program supported capacity-building workshops for northerners, as well as a Pan-Arctic Results Workshop to bring communities together to showcase the results of their research. Results include: numerous films and photo-voice products that engage youth and elders and are available on the web; community-based ice monitoring, surveillance and communication networks; and information products on land, water and ice safety, drinking water, food security and safety, and traditional medicine. Conclusions: Through these efforts, communities have increased their knowledge and understanding of the health effects related to climate change and have begun to develop local adaptation strategies.

  2. Meteo-climatic analysis during the period 1984 – 2014 in Rome area (Central Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Conte

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper rainfall trends and a seasonal distribution model of the period 1984-2014 for the urban area of Rome and surroundings are presented using the available data of 46 rain gauge stations. The average annual precipitation is 793 mm in the urban area and increases up to 945 mm in the surrounding hilly areas. The seasonal distribution of the isohyets is almost homogeneous, increasing from plain towards hilly areas. The scattered variability of annual rainfall does not allow the recognition of trends and cyclic tendencies, with the exception of seasonal variations. Nevertheless, the rainfall analysis highlights an increasing trend in winter and, to a lesser significant extent, in summer, while a decreasing tendency characterizes autumns and, definitely less spring periods. The annual rainfall time series analysis show significant changes for 28% out of the 46 stations considered, i.e.: descending to ascending trends or increasing of average values concomitant to the absence of significant trends. The plots of three-monthly (seasonal total rainfall values show, for most of the rainfall stations, a winter season characterized by a negative to positive tendency inversion around 1993. According to the qualitative classification of the Seasonal Index (SI, the study area sectors fall between the classes “uniform but with a clear wet season” (SI=0.20-0.39 and “fairly seasonal with a minor dry season” (SI=0.40-0.59.The analysis of the rainfall was further developed by spatial elaboration of long-term trends derived from the data analysis of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI, aggregated at annual, semiannual and quarterly scale.The analysis of the temperature data of 21 stations for the period 1984-2014 highlighted that, generally, isotherms follow the topographic elevations and the existence of an area, coinciding with the metropolitan area of Rome, characterized by temperatures greater than those of the surroundings.

  3. Factors that influence the success of conservation programs in communal property areas in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verónica Bunge-Vivier

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available More than half of the natural vegetation in Mexico is managed collectively within common property systems. The appropriation and continuity of government programs related to the conservation of land that is communally used is proposed to depend on the level of organization of the communities and the interaction between the local and governmental institutions, as well as the benefits derived from conservation projects. Patterns of what drives the conservation of common natural resources were analyzed in order to propose improvements to conservation policy. Changes in primary and secondary vegetation cover in common and private properties were identified by performing a historical spatial analysis. Questionnaires were used to survey 32 populations of seven states of the Mexican Republic to determine the conservation status of common property resources, as well as the ability of the community to continue conservation activities initially undertaken by government programs. Some 53% of the primary and secondary vegetation in Mexico is found in common property areas, but the change from primary and secondary vegetation to other uses is the same for common and private property. Communities with a high level of conservation of communal areas and with the ability to continue conservation projects were those that had dedicated the areas to recreation and conservation, had stronger community organization and were less marginalized. A recognition of the heterogeneity of the socioeconomic and cultural context of communities with common property is necessary to design governmental conservation programs that achieve long-term conservation. To meet the needs of a region that is both degraded and marginalized, the creation of synergies between programs that combat poverty and programs that promote conservation is needed. In addition, the continuation of payments with public funds for work that preserves or rehabilitates natural areas is needed, thereby

  4. The role of climate change and erosion processes in desertification process in a sub-Saharan peri-urban area (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iavazzo, Pietro; Terracciano, Stefano; Topa, Maria Elena; Adamo, Paola; Coly, Adrien; De Paola, Francesco; Giordano, Simonetta; Giugni, Maurizio; Traoré, Seydou Eric

    2013-04-01

    Desertification affects about two-thirds of the countries of the world, and one-third of the earth's surface, namely one-fifth of the world population. The seriousness of desertification depends on various factors, including climate (temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity), geomorphological and geological condition, vegetation cover, water and wind erosion, soil nutrient status and salinization, land use and land management, biodiversity, etc. Even the climate changes can contribute to the advance of desertification. Indeed hotter and drier conditions would extend the area prone to desertification to encompass areas currently not at risk. In addition, the rate of desertification would increase due to increases in erosion leading to an irreversible status of desertification process. This study was carried out within the FP7-ENV-2010 CLUVA project (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa), and aimed to estimate the effects of climate change on sensitivity to desertification in the area of Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso) providing a prediction tool useful for optimization of land management. The approach was based on the implementation and adaptation to the local conditions of the Environmentally Sensitive Areas Index (ESAI), developed within the MEDALUS project (Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use). A noteworthy advantage of this methodology is the flexibility, that allows to take into account several indices (climate, soil, vegetation cover, land management) operationally defined through the inclusion or exclusion of parameters scored on the basis of their impact on sensitivity to desertification. Therefore, an upgrade of the original method was developed adding a further index (Erosion Quality Index) for the evaluation of the cumulative impact of water and wind erosion in desertification process, by the RUSLE equation and the WEQ method, respectively. Climate simulations over the time period 2010-2050 were provided by the CMCC (Centro Euro

  5. Innoversity in knowledge-for-action and adaptation to climate change: the first steps of an 'evidence-based climatic health' transfrontier training program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Véronique Lapaige

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Véronique Lapaige1–3, Hélène Essiembre41Department of Psychiatry, University of Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada; 2Fernand-Seguin Research Centre, Montreal, QC, Canada; 3Quebec National Public Health Institute; 4Industrial and Organizational Program, Department of Psychology, University of Montreal, Montreal, QC, CanadaAbstract: It has become increasingly clear to the international scientific community that climate change is real and has important consequences for human health. To meet these new challenges, the World Health Organization recommends reinforcing the adaptive capacity of health systems. One of the possible avenues in this respect is to promote awareness and knowledge translation in climatic health, at both the local and global scales. Within such perspective, two major themes have emerged in the field of public health research: 1 the development of advanced training adapted to 'global environment' change and to the specific needs of various groups of actors (doctors, nurses, public health practitioners, health care managers, public service managers, local communities, etc and 2 the development of strategies for implementing research results and applying various types of evidence to the management of public health issues affected by climate change. Progress on these two fronts will depend on maximum innovation in transdisciplinary and transsectoral collaborations. The general purpose of this article is to present the program of a new research and learning chair designed for this double set of developmental objectives – a chair that emphasizes 'innoversity' (the dynamic relationship between innovation and diversity and 'transfrontier ecolearning for adaptive actions'. The Écoapprentissages, santé mentale et climat collaborative research chair (University of Montreal and Quebec National Public Health Institute based in Montreal is a center for 'transdisciplinary research' on the transfrontier knowledge-for-action that can aid

  6. Estimate of the area occupied by reforestation programs in Rio de Janeiro state

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo Barbosa Amorim

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This study was based on a preliminary survey and inventory of existing reforestation programs in Rio de Janeiro state, through geoprocessing techniques and collection of field data. The reforested area was found to occupy 18,426.96 ha, which amounts to 0.42% of the territory of the state. Much of reforestation programs consists of eucalyptus (98%, followed by pine plantations (0.8%, and the remainder is distributed among 10 other species. The Médio Paraíba region was found to contribute the most to the reforested area of the state (46.6%. The estimated volume of eucalyptus timber was nearly two million cubic meters. This study helped crystallize the ongoing perception among those militating in the forestry sector of Rio de Janeiro state that the planted area and stock of reforestation timber is still incipient in the state.

  7. National program of struggle against the climate change; Programme national de lutte contre le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-01-17

    The French national program of struggle against the climate change deals with the principal sources of pollution i.e. industry, transports, buildings, agriculture and forests wastes, gas refrigerants and power production. The document contains 12 chapters. First chapter concerns the France's responsibilities regarding the climatic change. The following issues are addressed: 1. The phenomenon, the gas releases and the potential impact; 2. The international negotiations and the European engagements; 3. France's effort for pollutant release abatement. The second chapter describes the principal options of the program. It presents: measures, economical constraints, long term structure actions upon offer. The third and the forth chapters deal with the industrial and transport releases and relating abatement measures. Chapter number five concerns the pollutant released in the building sector, i.e. those related to the dwelling houses, the current and proposed measures for reducing the harmful releases. The issue of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrogen oxide releases and absorptions in the sector agriculture-forests is addressed in chapter 6. The contribution of these releases to the greenhouse effect amounts up to 18% (with 11, 33% and 56%, fractions from the three gas emissions, CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, respectively). Measures for release reduction are presented as well as actions to improve the knowledge of the processes. A special addendum gives estimates and the implications the storms of December 1999 had upon the national program. The waste sector contributes by 3% to the greenhouse effect while the power production sector, by 8%. The fraction of release of the three principal pollutant gases are 87%, 12% and 1%, respectively. The results of a scenario based on extant and proposed measures for release abatement are presented for the period 1990-2010. The chapter 8 devoted to the power production sector presents also the results obtained from the

  8. North Carolina Cooperative Extension Professionals' Climate Change Perceptions, Willingness, and Perceived Barriers to Programming: An Educational Needs Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnett, Rachel E.; Vuola, Aaron J.; Megalos, Mark A.; Adams, Damian C.; Monroe, Martha C.

    2014-01-01

    The educational needs assessment reported here measured North Carolina Cooperative Extension (NCCE) professionals' perceptions of global warming and identified barriers to climate change programming. Survey results from 400 NCCE professionals show 70% are cautious, concerned, or alarmed about global warming. Liberal and female Extension…

  9. Educators' Perceptions of the Effects of School Uniforms on School Climate in a Selected Metropolitan Disciplinary Alternative Education Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chime, Emmanuel Onoh

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine educators' perceptions regarding the effects of school uniforms on school climate in a selected metropolitan disciplinary alternative education program. More specifically, this study investigated the influence of the variables group status, gender, ethnicity, age and years of experience on the perceptions…

  10. The Impact of Adult Degree-Completion Programs on the Organizational Climate of Christian Colleges and Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giles, Pamela

    2010-01-01

    Leaders in Christian higher education are often unaware of how adult degree completion programs (ADCPs) impact a school's organizational behavior, and no research has examined employees' perceptions of its impact. This nonexperimental, descriptive study examined differences in employees' perceptions of the impact on organizational climate of the…

  11. Spatio-temporal variations in the areas suitable for the cultivation of rice and maize in China under future climate scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yajie; Wang, Yanfen; Niu, Haishan

    2017-12-01

    Predictions of changes in the distribution of areas suitable for the cultivation of rice and maize in China under future climate change scenarios may provide scientific support for the optimization of crop production and measures to mitigate climate change. We conducted a spatial grid-based analysis using projections of future climate generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 4 for two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), adopted by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to study the areas suitable for the cultivation of rice and maize in China. We investigated the migration of the centers of gravity of the cultivation areas based on climatic and hydrological factors from 2021 to 2100. The results indicated that, under RCP2.6, the areas suitable for the cultivation of rice were located throughout China, except for on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, while the areas suitable for the cultivation of maize were located in northern, southwestern, central, eastern, parts of northeastern and some northern parts of western China. The distributions of both crops under RCP2.6 showed little change over time. In contrast, the areas suitable for the cultivation of rice and maize under RCP8.5 shifted northward and expanded from northwestern to northern China, as a result of greater warming in northern China and the faster warming trend under RCP8.5. This scenario would require much stronger climate mitigation policies to maintain the stable development of agriculture and to slow down the future migration of crop cultivation areas in China. The distribution of areas suitable for the cultivation of rice and maize should be studied further to design appropriate adaptation strategies for dealing with future climate change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Linear relations between leaf mass per area (LMA) and seasonal climate discovered through Linear Manifold Clustering (LMC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiang, N. Y.; Haralick, R. M.; Diky, A.; Kattge, J.; Su, X.

    2016-12-01

    Leaf mass per area (LMA) is a critical variable in plant carbon allocation, correlates with leaf activity traits (photosynthetic activity, respiration), and is a controller of litterfall mass and hence carbon substrate for soil biogeochemistry. Recent advances in understanding the leaf economics spectrum (LES) show that LMA has a strong correlation with leaf life span, a trait that reflects ecological strategy, whereas physiological traits that control leaf activity scale with each other when mass-normalized (Osnas et al., 2013). These functional relations help reduce the number of independent variables in quantifying leaf traits. However, LMA is an independent variable that remains a challenge to specify in dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), when vegetation types are classified into a limited number of plant functional types (PFTs) without clear mechanistic drivers for LMA. LMA can range orders of magnitude across plant species, as well as vary within a single plant, both vertically and seasonally. As climate relations in combination with alternative ecological strategies have yet to be well identified for LMA, we have assembled 22,000 records of LMA spanning 0.004 - 33 mg/m2 from the numerous contributors to the TRY database (Kattge et al., 2011), with observations distributed over several climate zones and plant functional categories (growth form, leaf type, phenology). We present linear relations between LMA and climate variables, including seasonal temperature, precipitation, and radiation, as derived through Linear Manifold Clustering (LMC). LMC is a stochastic search technique for identifying linear dependencies between variables in high dimensional space. We identify a set of parsimonious classes of LMA-climate groups based on a metric of minimum description to identify structure in the data set, akin to data compression. The relations in each group are compared to Köppen-Geiger climate classes, with some groups revealing continuous linear relations

  13. Impacts of climate change on the distribution of Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Shennongjia area, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Zhenhua; Zhou, Surong; Yu, Wendi; Yu, Huiliang; Yang, Jingyuan; Tian, Yanhong; Zhao, Mian; Wu, Hua

    2015-02-01

    Understanding the effects of climate change on primate ranging patterns is crucial for conservation planning. Rhinopithecus roxellana is an endangered primate species distributed in mountainous forests at the elevation of 1500-3500 m a.s.l. in China. Our study site, the Shennongjia National Nature Reserve, represents the eastern-most distribution of this species. This area has experienced significant habitat loss and fragmentation because of human population growth, increased farming and logging, and climate change. To estimate how changes in temperature and rainfall will affect the presumed future distribution of this species, we examined eco-geographic factors including bioclimate, habitat (vegetation type, landcover, etc.), topography, and human impact (human population, gross domestic product, etc.), and provide suggestions for management and conservation. We used a maximum entropy approach to predict the location and distribution of habitats suitable for R. roxellana in the present, 2020, 2050, and 2080 based on 33 environmental parameters, three general circulation models, three emissions scenarios, and two dispersal hypotheses. According to the ensemble modeling, we found range reductions of almost 30% by 2020, 70% by 2050, and over 80% by 2080. Although no obvious differences were found in distribution change based on full and zero dispersal assumptions, our results revealed range reductions in response to elevational, latitudinal, and longitudinal gradients, with the monkeys forced to migrate to higher elevations over time. Bioclimte factors, such as temperature, precipitation, evapo-transpiration, and aridity condition, were dominant contributors to range shifting. As habitat loss due to human influence and climate change is likely to be even more severe in the future, we considered three conservation hot-spots in the Shennongjia area and recommended: (i) securing existing reserves and establishing new reserves, (ii) re-designing management systems to

  14. Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Minchao; Knorr, Wolfgang; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2015-01-01

    Global environmental changes and human activity influence wildland fires worldwide, but the relative importance of the individual factors varies regionally and their interplay can be difficult to disentangle. Here we evaluate projected future changes in burned area at the European and sub-Europea...

  15. Comparative analysis of the efficiency of air source heat pumps in different climatic areas of Iran

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tabatabaei, S.; Treur, J.; Sotoca, Adolf; Catalani, Ana; Ghoneem, Mahmoud Y.; Amer, Mourad S.

    2016-01-01

    To address the problems caused by fossil energy usage it is important to make a transition to renewable sources of energy, in particular in the residential area. Heating systems such as air source heat pumps that gather heat energy from the ambient air are useful alternatives. However, whether or

  16. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Area-averaged 850-hPa Western Pacific Trade Wind Anomalies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It is the 850-hPa trade wind anomalies averaged over the area 5oN ? 5oS, 135oE-180o (western equatorial...

  17. Effects of Climate Change and Urban Development on Army Training Capabilities: Firing Ranges and Maneuver Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    51 8 Soil resiliency and vegetation recovery values for five CONUS installations. The proposed multiplicative value is calculated...dividing the sum of the soil resiliency and vegetation recovery values by 10...listing of threatened and/or endangered spe- cies (TES) or their habitats can also result in the reduction of training area footprints and/or the time

  18. Influence of weather and climate variables on the basal area growth of individual shortleaf pine trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradip Saud; Thomas B. Lynch; Duncan S. Wilson; John Stewart; James M. Guldin; Bob Heinemann; Randy Holeman; Dennis Wilson; Keith Anderson

    2015-01-01

    An individual-tree basal area growth model previously developed for even-aged naturally occurring shortleaf pine trees (Pinus echinata Mill.) in western Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma did not include weather variables. Individual-tree growth and yield modeling of shortleaf pine has been carried out using the remeasurements of over 200 plots...

  19. Impact of burned areas on the northern African seasonal climate from the perspective of regional modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Sales, Fernando; Xue, Yongkang; Okin, Gregory S.

    2016-12-01

    This study investigates the impact of burned areas on the surface energy balance and monthly precipitation in northern Africa as simulated by a state-of-the-art regional model. Mean burned area fraction derived from MODIS date of burning product was implemented in a set of 1-year long WRF-NMM/SSiB2 model simulations. Vegetation cover fraction and LAI were degraded daily based on mean burned area fraction and on the survival rate for each vegetation land cover type. Additionally, ground darkening associated with wildfire-induced ash and charcoal deposition was imposed through lower ground albedo for a period after burning. In general, wildfire-induced vegetation and ground condition deterioration increased mean surface albedo by exposing the brighter bare ground, which in turn caused a decrease in monthly surface net radiation. On average, the wildfire-season albedo increase was approximately 6.3 % over the Sahel. The associated decrease in surface available energy caused a drop in surface sensible heat flux to the atmosphere during the dry months of winter and early spring, which gradually transitioned to a more substantial decrease in surface evapotranspiration in April and May that lessened throughout the rainy season. Overall, post-fire land condition deterioration resulted in a decrease in precipitation over sub-Saharan Africa, associated with the weakening of the West African monsoon progression through the region. A decrease in atmospheric moisture flux convergence was observed in the burned area simulations, which played a dominant role in reducing precipitation in the area, especially in the months preceding the monsoon onset. The areas with the largest precipitation impact were those covered by savannas and rainforests, where annual precipitation decreased by 3.8 and 3.3 %, respectively. The resulting precipitation decrease and vegetation deterioration caused a drop in gross primary productivity in the region, which was strongest in late winter and early

  20. South African Climates: Highlights From International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 361

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemming, S. R.; Hall, I. R.; LeVay, L.

    2016-12-01

    International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 361 drilled six sites on the southeast African margin and in the Indian-Atlantic ocean gateway, southwest Indian Ocean, from 30 January to 31 March 2016. In total, 5175 m of core was recovered, with an average recovery of 102%, during 29.7 days of on-site operations. The sites, situated in the Mozambique Channel, at locations directly influenced by discharge from the Zambezi and Limpopo River catchments, the Natal Valley, the Agulhas Plateau, and the Cape Basin were targeted to reconstruct the history of the Greater Agulhas Current System over the past 5 Ma. The Agulhas Current transports 70 Sv of warm and saline surface waters from the tropical Indian Ocean along the East African margin to the tip of Africa. Exchanges of heat and moisture with the atmosphere influence southern African rainfall patterns. Recent ocean model and paleoceanographic data further point at a potential role of the Agulhas Current in controlling the strength and mode of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Late Pleistocene. The main objectives of the expedition were to document the oceanographic properties of the Agulhas Current through tectonic and climatic changes during the Plio-Pleistocene, to determine the dynamics of the Indian-Atlantic gateway circulation during this time, to examine the connection of the Agulhas leakage and AMOC, to address the influence of the Agulhas Current on African terrestrial climates and potential links to Human evolution. Additionally, the Expedition set out to fulfill the needs of the Ancillary Project Letter, consisting of high-resolution interstitial water samples that will, and to constrain the temperature and salinity profiles of the ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum. Here we highlight some of the expedition successes and show how it has made major strides toward fulfilling each of these objectives. The recovered sequences allowed complete spliced stratigraphic sections

  1. Modeling Aeolian Transport of Contaminated Sediments at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Technical Area 54, Area G: Sensitivities to Succession, Disturbance, and Future Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whicker, Jeffrey J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Kirchner, Thomas B. [New Mexico State University; Breshears, David D. [University of Arizona; Field, Jason P. [University of Arizona

    2012-03-27

    succession and environmental disturbance. Aeolian, or wind-driven, sediment transport drives soil erosion, affects biogeochemical cycles, and can lead to the transport of contaminants. Rates of aeolian sediment transport depend in large part on the type, amount, and spatial pattern of vegetation. In particular, the amount of cover from trees and shrubs, which act as roughness elements, alters rates of aeolian sediment transport. The degree to which the understory is disturbed and the associated spacing of bare soil gaps further influence sediment transport rates. Changes in vegetation structure and patterns over periods of years to centuries may have profound impacts on rates of wind-driven transport. For recently disturbed areas, succession is likely to occur through a series of vegetation communities. Area G currently exhibits a mosaic of vegetation cover, with patches of grass and forbs over closed disposal units, and bare ground in heavily used portions of the site. These areas are surrounded by less disturbed regions of shrubland and pinon-juniper woodland; some ponderosa pine forest is also visible in the canyon along the road. The successional trajectory for the disturbed portions of Area G is expected to proceed from grasses and forbs (which would be established during site closure), to shrubs such as chamisa, to a climax community of pinon-juniper woodland. Although unlikely under current conditions, a ponderosa pine forest could develop over the site if the future climate is wetter. In many ecosystems, substantial and often periodic disturbances such as fire or severe drought can rapidly alter vegetation patterns. Such disturbances are likely to increase in the southwestern US where projections call for a warmer and drier climate. With respect to Area G, the 3 most likely disturbance types are surface fire, crown fire, and drought-induced tree mortality. Each type of disturbance has a different frequency or likelihood of occurrence, but all 3 tend to reset the

  2. Investigation of administrative obstacles to family physician program in urban areas of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javad Javan noughabi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Health is regarded as one of the basic rights of each person in society; so governments are obligated to provide it equally for everyone. The best way to achieve this goal is the establishment of health insurance with the orientation of family physician and the strategic referral system. Yet, such programs will not be successful without encouraging people to participate and changing social behaviors. The aim of the present study was to investigate the administrative obstacles and problems to family physician program in urban areas of Iran. This study was a qualitative research conducted. A purposive sampling method was employed and the data were gathered via semi-structured interview with open-ended questions and document examination. All the interviews were recorded digitally and immediately transcribed verbatim. They were finally analyzed based on framework analysis. The participants' detailed descriptions showed that systemic, environmental, and human related factors were the main obstacles to the implementation of family physician plan. Since the success and performance of each program effectively cannot be obtained without people’s acceptance and collaboration, the necessity of training and giving information rapidly and timely to the residents in urban areas is felt more than ever. Also, making authorities aware of the obstacles expressed by people can be helpful in harmonizing the program with people’s requests; and can result in overcoming the challenges and obstacles facing the program.

  3. More efficient irrigation may compensate for increases in irrigation water requirements due to climate change in the Mediterranean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, Marianela; Shi, Sinan; von Bloh, Werner; Bondeau, Alberte; Cramer, Wolfgang

    2017-04-01

    Irrigation in the Mediterranean is of vital importance for food security, employment and economic development. We will present a recently published study1 that estimates the current level of water demand for Mediterranean agriculture and simulates the potential impacts of climate change, population growth and transitions to water-saving irrigation and conveyance technologies. The results indicate that, at present, Mediterranean region could save 35% of water by implementing more efficient irrigation and conveyance systems, with large differences in the saving potentials across countries. Under climate change, more efficient irrigation is of vital importance for counteracting increases in irrigation water requirements. The Mediterranean area as a whole might face an increase in gross irrigation requirements between 4% and 18% from climate change alone by the end of the century if irrigation systems and conveyance are not improved. Population growth increases these numbers to 22% and 74%, respectively, affecting mainly the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean. However, improved irrigation technologies and conveyance systems have large water saving potentials, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean. Both the Eastern and the Southern Mediterranean would need around 35% more water than today if they could afford some degree of modernization of irrigation and conveyance systems and benefit from the CO2-fertilization effect. However, in some scenarios water scarcity may constrain the supply of the irrigation water needed in future in Algeria, Libya, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Serbia, Morocco, Tunisia and Spain. In this study, vegetation growth, phenology, agricultural production and irrigation water requirements and withdrawal were simulated with the process-based ecohydrological and agro-ecosystem model LPJmL ("Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land") after a large development2 that comprised the improved representation of Mediterranean crops.

  4. Ecoregional-scale monitoring within conservation areas, in a rapidly changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beever, Erik A.; Woodward, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    Long-term monitoring of ecological systems can prove invaluable for resource management and conservation. Such monitoring can: (1) detect instances of long-term trend (either improvement or deterioration) in monitored resources, thus providing an early-warning indication of system change to resource managers; (2) inform management decisions and help assess the effects of management actions, as well as anthropogenic and natural disturbances; and (3) provide the grist for supplemental research on mechanisms of system dynamics and cause-effect relationships (Fancy et al., 2009). Such monitoring additionally provides a snapshot of the status of monitored resources during each sampling cycle, and helps assess whether legal standards and regulations are being met. Until the last 1-2 decades, tracking and understanding changes in condition of natural resources across broad spatial extents have been infrequently attempted. Several factors, however, are facilitating the achievement of such broad-scale investigation and monitoring. These include increasing awareness of the importance of landscape context, greater prevalence of regional and global environmental stressors, and the rise of landscape-scale programs designed to manage and monitor biological systems. Such programs include the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program (Moser et al., 2008), Canada's National Forest Inventory, the 3Q Programme for monitoring agricultural landscapes of Norway (Dramstad et al., 2002), and the emerging (US) Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (USDOI Secretarial Order 3289, 2009; Anonymous, 2011). This Special Section explores the underlying design considerations, as well as many pragmatic aspects associated with program implementation and interpretation of results from broad-scale monitoring systems, particularly within the constraints of high-latitude contexts (e.g., low road density, short field season, dramatic fluctuations in temperature). Although Alaska is

  5. Assessment of future climate change impacts on nonpoint source pollution in snowmelt period for a cold area using SWAT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yu; Bian, Jianmin; Zhao, Yongsheng; Tang, Jie; Jia, Zhuo

    2018-02-05

    The source area of Liao River is a typical cold region in northeastern China, which experiences serious problems with agricultural nonpoint source pollution (NPS), it is important to understand future climate change impacts on NPS in the watershed. This issue has been investigated by coupling semi distributed hydrological model (SWAT), statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and global circulation model (GCMs). The results show that annual average temperature would rise by 2.1 °C (1.3 °C) in the 2080 s under scenario RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), and annual precipitation would increase by 67 mm (33 mm). The change in winter temperature and precipitation is most significant with an increase by 0.23 °C/10a (0.17 °C/10a) and 1.94 mm/10a (2.78 mm/10a). The future streamflow, TN and TP loads would decrease by 19.05% (10.59%), 12.27% (8.81%) and 10.63% (6.11%), respectively. Monthly average streamflow, TN and TP loads would decrease from March to November, and increase from December to February. This is because the increased precipitation and temperature in winter, which made the spring snowpack melting earlier. These study indicate the trends of nonpoint source pollution during the snowmelt period under climate change conditions, accordingly adaptation measures will be necessary.

  6. NCRP Program Area Committee 5: Environmental Radiation and Radioactive Waste Issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S Y; Napier, Bruce

    2016-02-01

    Program Area Committee 5 of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) focuses its activities on environmental radiation and radioactive waste issues. The Committee completed a number of reports in these subject areas, most recently NCRP Report No. 175, Decision Making for Late-Phase Recovery from Major Nuclear or Radiological Incidents. Historically this Committee addressed emerging issues of the nation pertaining to radioactivity or radiation in the environment or radioactive waste issues due either to natural origins or to manmade activities.

  7. Effect of macroalgal expansion and marine protected areas on coral recovery following a climatic disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Shaun K; Graham, Nicholas A J; Fisher, Rebecca; Robinson, Jan; Nash, Kirsty; Chong-Seng, Karen; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Aumeeruddy, Riaz; Quatre, Rodney

    2012-12-01

    Disturbance plays an important role in structuring marine ecosystems, and there is a need to understand how conservation practices, such as the designation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), facilitate postdisturbance recovery. We evaluated the association of MPAs, herbivorous fish biomass, substrate type, postdisturbance coral cover, and change in macroalgal cover with coral recovery on the fringing reefs of the inner Seychelle islands, where coral mortality after a 1998 bleaching event was extensive. We visually estimated benthic cover and fish biomass at 9 sites in MPAs where fishing is banned and at 12 sites where fishing is permitted in 1994, 2005, 2008, and 2011. We used analysis of variance to examine spatial and temporal variations in coral cover and generalized additive models to identify relations between coral recovery and the aforementioned factors that may promote recovery. Coral recovery occurred on all substrate types, but it was highly variable among sites and times. Between 2005 and 2011 the increase in coral cover averaged 1%/year across 21 sites, and the maximum increase was 4%/year. However, mean coral cover across the study area (14%) remained at half of 1994 levels (28%). Sites within MPAs had faster rates of coral recovery than sites in fished areas only where cover of macroalgae was low and had not increased over time. In MPAs where macroalgae cover expanded since 1998 there was no recovery. Where coral was recovering on granite reefs there was a shift in relative prevalence of colony life-form from branching to encrusting species. This simplification of reef structure may affect associated reef fauna even if predisturbance levels of coral cover are attained. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

  8. Carbon farming in hot, dry coastal areas: an option for climate change mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, K.; Wulfmeyer, V.; Berger, T.; Gebel, J.; Münch, W.

    2013-07-01

    We present a comprehensive, interdisciplinary project which demonstrates that large-scale plantations of Jatropha curcas - if established in hot, dry coastal areas around the world - could capture 17-25 t of carbon dioxide per hectare per year from the atmosphere (over a 20 yr period). Based on recent farming results it is confirmed that the Jatropha curcas plant is well adapted to harsh environments and is capable of growing alone or in combination with other tree and shrub species with minimal irrigation in hot deserts where rain occurs only sporadically. Our investigations indicate that there is sufficient unused and marginal land for the widespread cultivation of Jatropha curcas to have a significant impact on atmospheric CO2 levels at least for several decades. In a system in which desalinated seawater is used for irrigation and for delivery of mineral nutrients, the sequestration costs were estimated to range from 42-63 EUR per tonne CO2. This result makes carbon farming a technology that is competitive with carbon capture and storage (CCS). In addition, high-resolution simulations using an advanced land-surface-atmosphere model indicate that a 10 000 km2 plantation could produce a reduction in mean surface temperature and an onset or increase in rain and dew fall at a regional level. In such areas, plant growth and CO2 storage could continue until permanent woodland or forest had been established. In other areas, salinization of the soil may limit plant growth to 2-3 decades whereupon irrigation could be ceased and the captured carbon stored as woody biomass.

  9. Climate change science : high quality greenhouse gas emissions data are a cornerstone of programs to address climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-02-24

    This testimony focuses on (1) the importance of quality data on emissions in the context of a program intended to limit greenhouse gas emissions, and (2) key considerations in developing reliable data on greenhouse gas emissions. This testimony is ba...

  10. In the right place at the right time: habitat representation in protected areas of South American Nothofagus-dominated plants after a dispersal constrained climate change scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alarcón, Diego; Cavieres, Lohengrin A

    2015-01-01

    In order to assess the effects of climate change in temperate rainforest plants in southern South America in terms of habitat size, representation in protected areas, considering also if the expected impacts are similar for dominant trees and understory plant species, we used niche modeling constrained by species migration on 118 plant species, considering two groups of dominant trees and two groups of understory ferns. Representation in protected areas included Chilean national protected areas, private protected areas, and priority areas planned for future reserves, with two thresholds for minimum representation at the country level: 10% and 17%. With a 10% representation threshold, national protected areas currently represent only 50% of the assessed species. Private reserves are important since they increase up to 66% the species representation level. Besides, 97% of the evaluated species may achieve the minimum representation target only if the proposed priority areas were included. With the climate change scenario representation levels slightly increase to 53%, 69%, and 99%, respectively, to the categories previously mentioned. Thus, the current location of all the representation categories is useful for overcoming climate change by 2050. Climate change impacts on habitat size and representation of dominant trees in protected areas are not applicable to understory plants, highlighting the importance of assessing these effects with a larger number of species. Although climate change will modify the habitat size of plant species in South American temperate rainforests, it will have no significant impact in terms of the number of species adequately represented in Chile, where the implementation of the proposed reserves is vital to accomplish the present and future minimum representation. Our results also show the importance of using migration dispersal constraints to develop more realistic future habitat maps from climate change predictions.

  11. In the right place at the right time: habitat representation in protected areas of South American Nothofagus-dominated plants after a dispersal constrained climate change scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Alarcón

    Full Text Available In order to assess the effects of climate change in temperate rainforest plants in southern South America in terms of habitat size, representation in protected areas, considering also if the expected impacts are similar for dominant trees and understory plant species, we used niche modeling constrained by species migration on 118 plant species, considering two groups of dominant trees and two groups of understory ferns. Representation in protected areas included Chilean national protected areas, private protected areas, and priority areas planned for future reserves, with two thresholds for minimum representation at the country level: 10% and 17%. With a 10% representation threshold, national protected areas currently represent only 50% of the assessed species. Private reserves are important since they increase up to 66% the species representation level. Besides, 97% of the evaluated species may achieve the minimum representation target only if the proposed priority areas were included. With the climate change scenario representation levels slightly increase to 53%, 69%, and 99%, respectively, to the categories previously mentioned. Thus, the current location of all the representation categories is useful for overcoming climate change by 2050. Climate change impacts on habitat size and representation of dominant trees in protected areas are not applicable to understory plants, highlighting the importance of assessing these effects with a larger number of species. Although climate change will modify the habitat size of plant species in South American temperate rainforests, it will have no significant impact in terms of the number of species adequately represented in Chile, where the implementation of the proposed reserves is vital to accomplish the present and future minimum representation. Our results also show the importance of using migration dispersal constraints to develop more realistic future habitat maps from climate change predictions.

  12. The Theater High Altitude Area Defense program: an interim examination of its acquisition strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Atkinson, James W.

    1996-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. This thesis is an examination of the Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) program's implementation of the User Operational Evaluation System (UOES) acquisition strategy. The Missile Defense Act of 1991 imposed significant schedule risk on THAAD's development, necessitating the UOES strategy. The UOES risk management issues are analyzed using DOD's risk management guidance. This guidance incorporates some current methods, applica...

  13. Subsurface warming across the Veluwe area (Netherlands) driven by climate change, urbanisation, groundwater abstraction and aquifer energy storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bense, Victor; de Kleijn, Christian; van Daal, Jonathan

    2017-04-01

    Atmospheric warming, urbanisation, land-use changes, groundwater abstraction and aquifer thermal energy storage can induce significant changes in the subsurface thermal regime. These need to better understood and monitored in order for humanity to make efficient use of the subsurface as a thermal reservoir, but also to understand how this space acts as a heat sink during the current warming of the climate. This work aims to improve our understanding of the relative importance, spatiotemporal characteristics and mechanisms of how various environmental processes and anthropogenic activities control changes in subsurface thermal regimes. Such changes are poignantly illustrated by temperature-depth profiles recently obtained in 30 boreholes upto several hundreds of meters deep that are present in the unconsolidated sedimentary aquifer system of the Veluwe area, Netherlands. A comparison to similar data collected in 1978-1980 shows that since then across the entire study area subsurface warming has occurred to depths upto 250 m. The availability of historic land-use maps, hydrogeological and meteorological data for this area allow for a detailed analysis of the observed subsurface warming patterns, which is aided by numerical models of coupled groundwater and heat flow. On a regional scale and across the entire first 100-150 m into the subsurface, the classic thermal signatures of variations in land-use, groundwater recharge and discharge fluxes, are increasingly overprinted by those of regional atmospheric warming and urbanisation. In the topographically higher, forested groundwater recharge areas groundwater is significantly cooler (upto 6 K) than in the open agricultural lands where groundwater is discharging. The presence of a thick (upto 30-40 m) unsaturated zone in the recharge area probably enhances this striking contrast in groundwater temperature in addition to the effects of groundwater recharge and the presence of forest. Locally and at larger depths, however

  14. Estimating urban trees and carbon stock potentials for mitigating climate change in Lagos: Case of Ikeja Government Reserved Area (GRA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, P. O.; Faderin, A.

    2014-12-01

    Urban trees are a component of the urban infrastructure which offers diverse services including environmental, aesthetic and economic. The accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere resulting from the indiscriminate distribution of human populations and urban activities with the unsustainable consumption of natural resources contributes to global environmental change especially in coastal cities like Lagos. Carbon stocks and sequestration by urban trees are increasingly recognized to play significant roles for mitigating climate change. This paper focuses on the estimation of carbon stock and sequestration through biomass estimation and quantification in Ikeja GRA, Lagos. Ikeja possesses a characteristic feature as a microcosm of Lagos due to the wide range of land uses. A canopy assessment of tree population was carried out using itree canopy software. A GPS survey was used to collect an inventory of all trees showing their location, spatial distribution and other attributes. The analysis of the carbon storage and sequestration potential of both actual and potential tree planting sites involved biomass estimations from tree allometry equations. Trees were identified at species level and measurements of their dendrometric values were recorded and integrated into the GIS database to estimate biomass of trees and carbon storage. The trees in the study area were estimated to have a biomass of 441.9 mg and carbon storage of 221.395 kg/tree. By considering the potential tree planting sites the estimated carbon stored increased to 11,352.73 kg. Carbon sequestration value in the study area was found to be 1.6790 tonnes for the existing trees and 40.707 tonnes for the potential tree planting sites (PTPS). The estimation of carbon storage and sequestration values of trees are important incentives for carbon accounting/footprints and monitoring of climate change mitigation which has implications for evaluation and monitoring of urban ecosystem.

  15. How climate compatible are livelihood adaptation strategies and development programs in rural Indonesia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.M. Wise

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Achieving climate compatible development (CCD is a necessity in developing countries, but there are few examples of requisite planning processes, or manifestations of CCD. This paper presents a multi-stakeholder, participatory planning process designed to screen and prioritise rural livelihood adaptation strategies against nine CCD criteria. The process also integrated three principles of adaptation pathways: interventions should be (1 ‘no regrets’ and maintain reversibility to avoid mal-adaptation; (2 address both proximate and underlying systemic drivers of community vulnerability; and (3 linked across spatial scales and jurisdictional levels to promote coordination. Using examples of two rural sub-districts in Indonesia, we demonstrate the process and resulting CCD strategies. Priority strategies varied between the sub-districts but all reflected standard development interventions: water management, intensification or diversification of agriculture and aquaculture, education, health, food security and skills-building for communities. Strategies delivered co-benefits for human development and ecosystem services and hence adaptive capacity, but greenhouse mitigation co-benefits were less significant. Actions to deliver the strategies’ objectives were screened for reversibility, and a minority were potentially mal-adaptive (i.e. path dependent, disproportionately burdening the most vulnerable, reducing incentives to adapt, or increasing greenhouse gas emissions yet highly feasible. These related to infrastructure, which paradoxically is necessary to deliver ‘soft’ adaptation benefits (i.e. road access to health services. Only a small minority of transformative strategies addressed the systemic (i.e. institutional and political drivers of vulnerability. Strategies were well-matched by development programs, suggesting that current interventions mirror CCD. However, development programs tackled fewer systemic drivers, were poorly

  16. U.S. Department of Energy, Carlsbad Area Office quality assurance program document. Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-04-01

    Mission of the Carlsbad Area Office (CAO) is to protect human health and the environment by opening and operating the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) for safe disposal of TRU waste, and establishing an effective system for management of TRU waste from generation to disposal. To help in fulfilling this mission and to ensure that risks and environmental impacts are identified and minimized, and that safety, reliability, and performance are optimized, CAO`s policy is to establish and maintain an effective quality assurance (QA) program that supports compliance with applicable Federal, State, and local regulations, and DOE orders and requirements. This document establishes QA program requirements for all programs, projects, and activities sponsored by CAO.

  17. Hydrologic Resources Management Program and Underground Test Area Project FY2005 Progress Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eaton, G F; Genetti, V; Hu, Q; Hudson, G B; Kersting, A B; Lindvall, R E; Moran, J E; Nimz, G J; Ramon, E C; Rose, T P; Shuller, L; Williams, R W; Zavarin, M; Zhao, P

    2007-03-23

    This report describes FY 2005 technical studies conducted by the Chemical Biology and Nuclear Science Division (CBND) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in support of the Hydrologic Resources Management Program (HRMP) and the Underground Test Area Project (UGTA). These programs are administered by the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, Nevada Site Office (NNSA/NSO) through the Defense Programs and Environmental Restoration Divisions, respectively. HRMP-sponsored work is directed toward the responsible management of the natural resources at the Nevada Test Site (NTS), enabling its continued use as a staging area for strategic operations in support of national security. UGTA-funded work emphasizes the development of an integrated set of groundwater flow and contaminant transport models to predict the extent of radionuclide migration from underground nuclear testing areas at the NTS. The report is organized on a topical basis and contains five chapters that highlight technical work products produced by CBND. However, it is important to recognize that most of this work involves collaborative partnerships with the other HRMP and UGTA contract organizations. These groups include the Energy and Environment Directorate at LLNL (LLNL-E&E), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), the Desert Research Institute (DRI), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Stoller-Navarro Joint Venture (SNJV), and Bechtel Nevada (BN).

  18. Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-07-01

    sometimes called the thermohaline circulation) in producing past abrupt climate changes. Climate modeling studies have suggested specific mechanisms for...systems and the feedbacks from these interactions. There will no doubt be limits to what can be forecast, but discovering these limits and their...predictability? 4.3 What is the likelihood of abrupt changes in the climate system such as the collapse of the ocean thermohaline circulation, inception

  19. Dynamic Adaptive Approach to Transportation-Infrastructure Planning for Climate Change: San Francisco Bay Area Case Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wall, T.A.; Walker, W.E.; Marchau, V.A.W.J.; Bertolini, L.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptation of existing infrastructure is a response to climate change that can ensure a viable, safe, and robust transportation network. However, deep uncertainties associated with climate change pose significant challenges to adaptation planning. Specifically, current transportation planning

  20. High-resolution 900 year volcanic and climatic record from the Vostok area, East Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osipov, E. Y.; Khodzher, T. V.; Golobokova, L. P.; Onischuk, N. A.; Lipenkov, V. Y.; Ekaykin, A. A.; Shibaev, Y. A.; Osipova, O. P.

    2014-05-01

    Ion chromatography measurements of 1730 snow and firn samples obtained from three short cores and one pit in the Vostok station area, East Antarctica, allowed for the production of the combined volcanic record of the last 900 years (AD 1093-2010). The resolution of the record is 2-3 samples per accumulation year. In total, 24 volcanic events have been identified, including seven well-known low-latitude eruptions (Pinatubo 1991, Agung 1963, Krakatoa 1883, Tambora 1815, Huanaputina 1600, Kuwae 1452, El Chichon 1259) found in most of the polar ice cores. In comparison with three other East Antarctic volcanic records (South Pole, Plateau Remote and Dome C), the Vostok record contains more events within the last 900 years. The differences between the records may be explained by local glaciological conditions, volcanic detection methodology, and, probably, differences in atmospheric circulation patterns. The strongest volcanic signal (both in sulfate concentration and flux) was attributed to the AD 1452 Kuwae eruption, similar to the Plateau Remote and Talos Dome records. The average snow accumulation rate calculated between volcanic stratigraphic horizons for the period AD 1260-2010 is 20.9 mm H2O. Positive (+13%) anomalies of snow accumulation were found for AD 1661-1815 and AD 1992-2010, and negative (-12%) for AD 1260-1601. We hypothesized that the changes in snow accumulation are associated with regional peculiarities in atmospheric transport.

  1. Climate Reconstructions

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Paleoclimatology Program archives reconstructions of past climatic conditions derived from paleoclimate proxies, in addition to the Program's large holdings...

  2. Resilience of sewage services to climate change uncertainty: analysis of the management of sewer overflows in two Parisian suburban areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rioust, E.; Deroubaix, J. F.; Barroca, B.; Bonierbale, T.; de Gouvello, B.; Deutsch, J. C.; Hubert, G.

    2009-04-01

    This paper considers the resilience perspective as an approach for understanding social and political vulnerabilities of urban services. The authors examine to what extend uncertainty due to climate change may affect the resilience of these urban services. The resilience perspective is increasingly used for analysing social groups' capacities to adapt to and live with disturbances. A lot of work on resilience has focused on the capacity to absorb shocks and still maintain functions. But there is also another aspect of resilience, which leads to take into account systems vulnerabilities and to aim at understanding their equilibrium and re-organization capacity. The purpose with this paper is to assess sewage systems capacities to adapt to climate change. Indeed, climate change could cause an increase of extreme rain events and, as a matter of consequence, an increase of sewer overflows and flooding of urbanised areas. Sewer systems have to cope with this change that may gravely affect urban planning. In recent studies of political science, risk management has been considered as a public policy involving and resulting from complex social, political and technical processes (Gilbert et al. 2003). From this point of view, the management of wastewaters and storm waters has to be considered not only as a technical but also as a political and a social system. Therefore, political science can be a fruitful perspective to understand the stakeholders perceptions of uncertainty and the way they are going to integrate this issue in their practices. The authors analyse the adaptive capacities of two sewer systems located in the Parisian suburban area. The chosen areas are highly populated. Each network is managed within a political and administrative unit called "Département". Both authorities of these "Départements" implement a public sewage service. Nonetheless these networks are connected and part of the greater Paris sewage policy. In both areas a real time control of

  3. Therapist turnover and new program sustainability in mental health clinics as a function of organizational culture, climate, and service structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glisson, Charles; Schoenwald, Sonja K; Kelleher, Kelly; Landsverk, John; Hoagwood, Kimberly Eaton; Mayberg, Stephen; Green, Philip

    2008-03-01

    The present study incorporates organizational theory and organizational characteristics in examining issues related to the successful implementation of mental health services. Following the theoretical foundations of socio-technical and cultural models of organizational effectiveness, organizational climate, culture, legal and service structures, and workforce characteristics are examined as correlates of therapist turnover and new program sustainability in a nationwide sample of mental health clinics. Results of General Linear Modeling (GLM) with the organization as the unit of analysis revealed that organizations with the best climates as measured by the Organizational Social Context (OSC) profiling system, had annual turnover rates (10%) that were less than half the rates found in organizations with the worst climates (22%). In addition, organizations with the best culture profiles sustained new treatment or service programs over twice as long (50 vs. 24 months) as organizations with the worst cultures. Finally, clinics with separate children's services units had higher turnover rates than clinics that served adults and children within the same unit. The findings suggest that strategies to support the implementation of new mental health treatments and services should attend to organizational culture and climate, and to the compatibility of organizational service structures with the demand characteristics of treatments.

  4. Combining remote sensing and GIS climate modelling to estimate daily forest evapotranspiration in a Mediterranean mountain area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Cristóbal

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Evapotranspiration monitoring allows us to assess the environmental stress on forest and agricultural ecosystems. Nowadays, Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems (GIS are the main techniques used for calculating evapotranspiration at catchment and regional scales. In this study we present a methodology, based on the energy balance equation (B-method, that combines remote sensing imagery with GIS-based climate modelling to estimate daily evapotranspiration (ETd for several dates between 2003 and 2005. The three main variables needed to compute ETd were obtained as follows: (i Land surface temperature by means of the Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-7 ETM+ thermal band, (ii air temperature by means of multiple regression analysis and spatial interpolation from meteorological ground stations data at satellite pass, and (iii net radiation by means of the radiative balance. We calculated ETd using remote sensing data at different spatial and temporal scales (Landsat-7 ETM+, Landsat-5 TM and TERRA/AQUA MODIS, with a spatial resolution of 60, 120 and 1000 m, respectively and combining three different approaches to calculate the B parameter, which represents an average bulk conductance for the daily-integrated sensible heat flux. We then compared these estimates with sap flow measurements from a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. stand in a Mediterranean mountain area. This procedure allowed us to better understand the limitations of ETd modelling and how it needs to be improved, especially in heterogeneous forest areas. The method using Landsat data resulted in a good agreement, R2 test of 0.89, with a mean RMSE value of about 0.6 mm day−1 and an estimation error of ±30 %. The poor agreement obtained using TERRA/AQUA MODIS, with a mean RMSE value of 1.8 and 2.4 mm day−1 and an estimation error of about ±57 and 50 %, respectively. This

  5. Heat accumulation period in the Mediterranean region: phenological response of the olive in different climate areas (Spain, Italy and Tunisia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilera, Fátima; Ruiz, Luis; Fornaciari, Marco; Romano, Bruno; Galán, Carmen; Oteros, Jose; Ben Dhiab, Ali; Msallem, Monji; Orlandi, Fabio

    2014-07-01

    The main characteristics of the heat accumulation period and the possible existence of different types of biological response to the environment in different populations of olive through the Mediterranean region have been evaluated. Chilling curves to determine the start date of the heat accumulation period were constructed and evaluated. The results allow us to conclude that the northern olive populations have the greatest heat requirements for the development of their floral buds, and they need a period of time longer than olives in others areas to completely satisfy their biothermic requirements. The olive trees located in the warmest winter areas have a faster transition from endogenous to exogenous inhibition once the peak of chilling is met, and they show more rapid floral development. The lower heat requirements are due to better adaptation to warmer regions. Both the threshold temperature and the peak of flowering date are closely related to latitude. Different types of biological responses of olives to the environment were found. The adaptive capacity shown by the olive tree should be considered as a useful tool with which to study the effects of global climatic change on agro-ecosystems.

  6. Heat accumulation period in the Mediterranean region: phenological response of the olive in different climate areas (Spain, Italy and Tunisia).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilera, Fátima; Ruiz, Luis; Fornaciari, Marco; Romano, Bruno; Galán, Carmen; Oteros, Jose; Ben Dhiab, Ali; Msallem, Monji; Orlandi, Fabio

    2014-07-01

    The main characteristics of the heat accumulation period and the possible existence of different types of biological response to the environment in different populations of olive through the Mediterranean region have been evaluated. Chilling curves to determine the start date of the heat accumulation period were constructed and evaluated. The results allow us to conclude that the northern olive populations have the greatest heat requirements for the development of their floral buds, and they need a period of time longer than olives in others areas to completely satisfy their biothermic requirements. The olive trees located in the warmest winter areas have a faster transition from endogenous to exogenous inhibition once the peak of chilling is met, and they show more rapid floral development. The lower heat requirements are due to better adaptation to warmer regions. Both the threshold temperature and the peak of flowering date are closely related to latitude. Different types of biological responses of olives to the environment were found. The adaptive capacity shown by the olive tree should be considered as a useful tool with which to study the effects of global climatic change on agro-ecosystems.

  7. Macrophyte assemblage composition as a simple tool to assess global change in coastal areas. Freshwater impacts and climatic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buosi, Alessandro; Sfriso, Adriano

    2017-12-15

    Macrophyte assemblages are one of the most sensitive biological communities to assess anthropogenic impacts and climate changes. Community composition responds very quickly to environmental changes driving towards a predictable composition. The increase or decrease of the trophic status (i.e. nutrient concentrations, suspended particulate matter, Chlorophyll-a) and temperature are the most important factors responsible for the replacement of taxa of high ecological value (sensitive taxa) with opportunistic species. A qualitative and quantitative study of macrophytes in 4 areas along the coasts of the Northern Adriatic Sea, from Venice (Italy) to Savudrija (Croatia) and the analysis of river outflows in this region during one year (May 2012-April 2013) provided information about their spatial variability. The coasts of the Veneto Region and Friuli-Venezia Giulia, which are affected by significant freshwater inputs, showed a strong biodiversity reduction or a dominance of thionitrophilic taxa. No seagrasses colonized these areas. On the other hand, the coasts of Croatia had negligible fresh water inputs and macrophyte communities were dominated by sensitive taxa such as the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa and some species belonging to genus Cystoseira. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Observational research study around tropical Western Pacific: PALAU (Pacific Area Long-term Atmospheric observation for Understanding climate change) project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirooka, Ryuichi

    2017-04-01

    The warm water pool region in the tropical Western Pacific is a key area for global climate systems, as strong atmospheric convective activity in this area is the driving engine of the atmosphere. However, there are many processes between meso-scale convective activities and the global-scale climate, and these are not fully understood yet. To understand the mechanism of clouds-precipitation processes and air-sea interactions over the warm pool in the tropics, there are in need of further investigation on the Western Pacific monsoon and the tropical-extratropical interactions. Toward these objectives, we have continued a long-term observational project named PALAU (Pacific Area Long-term Atmospheric observation for Understanding climate change) around the tropical Western Pacific near the Republic of Palau. The main target of this project is to describe multi-scale interactions of cloud systems to intra-seasonal oscillations affected by monsoon activities. To elucidate the structure of tropical cyclones, which occur over a monsoon trough near Palau, is also a major interest. Since November 2000, we have been continuously operating a surface weather observation site in Palau. We also have conducted several intensive field campaigns targeted for various phenomena. PALAU2013, one of the intensive campaign, was carried out to focus on the formation mechanism of tropical cyclones and their relation to intra-seasonal oscillations and monsoon activity over the tropical Western Pacific. During the campaign, R/V Mirai was placed near Palau and conducted atmospheric and oceanic observations using Doppler radar, radiosonde, CTD and so on. Daily profiling Argo-floats were deployed for analyzing air-sea interactions. To capture the monsoon activity with wide area, we constructed intensified sounding network from Philippines, Palau, and Yap to Guam. Three X-band radars were utilized to obtain the internal structure of cloud systems. Dual-polarization parameters also can be

  9. Circular Migration as Climate Change Adaptation: Reconceptualising New Zealand´s and Australia’s Seasonal Worker Programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Brickenstein

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper looks into an aspect of adaptation, namely the role of the circular migration as climate change adaptation. It focuses on two of the Pacific region’s recently well -known seasonal labor schemes, Namely Australia’s Seasonal Workers Program (SWP and New Zealand ‘s recognized Seasonal Employer Scheme (RSE, and asks if beyond the current goals the schemes May be reconceptualsed as adaptation programs responsive not only towards developmental and economic Concerns but the wider (and interconnected With the first two climate change challenges. According to MacDermott and Opeskin, labor mobility schemes, for the sending country focus on the “development perspective “such as (a Employment Opportunities, (b Regular benefits of Remittances and (c skills enhancement, while receiving countries country can meet the challenges posed by labor shortages in seasonal industries where “a reliable workforce is lacking”.

  10. Science rationale for CAWSES (Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System): SCOSTEP’s interdisciplinary program for 2004 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Sunanda; Pallamraju, D.

    2006-01-01

    An international program called Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System (CAWSES) has been developed by the Scientific COmmittee on Solar TErrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP) for the study of integrated Sun Earth system science to be conducted over the period 2004 2008. This program aims to significantly enhance our understanding of the space environment and its impacts on life and society. The main functions of CAWSES are: (a) to help coordinate international activities in observations, modeling and theory crucial to achieving this understanding; (b) to encourage involvement of scientists in both developed and developing countries in such