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  1. A Comparison of Systemic Inflammation-Based Prognostic Scores in Patients on Regular Hemodialysis

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    Akihiko Kato

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Systemic inflammation-based prognostic scores have prognostic power in patients with cancer, independently of tumor stage and site. Although inflammatory status is associated with mortality in hemodialysis (HD patients, it remains to be determined as to whether these composite scores are useful in predicting clinical outcomes. Methods: We calculated the 6 prognostic scores [Glasgow prognostic score (GPS, modified GPS (mGPS, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR, platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR, prognostic index (PI and prognostic nutritional index (PNI], which have been established as a useful scoring system in cancer patients. We enrolled 339 patients on regular HD (age: 64 ± 13 years; time on HD: 129 ± 114 months; males/females = 253/85 and followed them for 42 months. The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve was used to determine which scoring system was more predictive of mortality. Results: Elevated GPS, mGPS, NLR, PLR, PI and PNI were all associated with total mortality, independent of covariates. If GPS was raised, mGPS, NLR, PLR and PI were also predictive of all-cause mortality and/or hospitalization. GPS and PNI were associated with poor nutritional status. Using overall mortality as an endpoint, the area under the curve (AUC was significant for a GPS of 0.701 (95% CI: 0.637-0.765; p Conclusion: GPS, based on serum albumin and highly sensitive C-reactive protein, has the most prognostic power for mortality prediction among the prognostic scores in HD patients. However, as the determination of serum albumin reflects mortality similarly to GPS, other composite combinations are needed to provide additional clinical utility beyond that of albumin alone in HD patients.

  2. Inflammation-based prognostic score and number of lymph node metastases are independent prognostic factors in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

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    Kobayashi, Takashi; Teruya, Masanori; Kishiki, Tomokazu; Kaneko, Susumu; Endo, Daisuke; Takenaka, Yoshiharu; Miki, Kenji; Kobayashi, Kaoru; Morita, Koji

    2010-08-01

    Few studies have investigated whether the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score, is useful for postoperative prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. GPS was calculated on the basis of admission data as follows: patients with elevated C-reactive protein level (>10 mg/l) and hypoalbuminemia (l) were assigned to GPS2. Patients with one or no abnormal value were assigned to GPS1 or GPS0. A new scoring system was constructed using independent prognostic variables and was evaluated on whether it could be used to dictate the choice of clinical options. 65 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were enrolled. GPS and the number of lymph node metastases were found to be independent prognostic variables. The scoring system comprising GPS and the number of lymph node metastases was found to be effective in the prediction of a long-term outcome (p GPS may be useful for postoperative prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. GPS and the number of lymph node metastases could be used to identify a subgroup of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who are eligible for radical resection but show poor prognosis.

  3. [Prognostic scores for pulmonary embolism].

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    Junod, Alain

    2016-03-23

    Nine prognostic scores for pulmonary embolism (PE), based on retrospective and prospective studies, published between 2000 and 2014, have been analyzed and compared. Most of them aim at identifying PE cases with a low risk to validate their ambulatory care. Important differences in the considered outcomes: global mortality, PE-specific mortality, other complications, sizes of low risk groups, exist between these scores. The most popular score appears to be the PESI and its simplified version. Few good quality studies have tested the applicability of these scores to PE outpatient care, although this approach tends to already generalize in the medical practice.

  4. A Novel Prognostic Score, Based on Preoperative Nutritional Status, Predicts Outcomes of Patients after Curative Resection for Gastric Cancer.

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    Liu, Xuechao; Qiu, Haibo; Liu, Jianjun; Chen, Shangxiang; Xu, Dazhi; Li, Wei; Zhan, Youqing; Li, Yuanfang; Chen, Yingbo; Zhou, Zhiwei; Sun, Xiaowei

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: We aimed to determine whether preoperative nutritional status (PNS) was a valuable predictor of outcome in patients with gastric cancer (GC). METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated 1320 patients with GC undergoing curative resection. The PNS score was constructed based on four objective and easily measurable criteria: prognostic nutritional index (PNI) score 1, serum albumin nutritional-based prognostic score, is independently associated with OS in GC. Prospective studies are needed to validate its clinical utility.

  5. Novel Inflammation-Based Prognostic Score for Predicting Survival in Patients with Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma.

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    Yu-Li Su

    Full Text Available We developed a novel inflammation-based model (NPS, which consisted of a neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR and platelet count (PC, for assessing the prognostic role in patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma (UC.We performed a retrospective analysis of patients with metastatic UC who underwent systemic chemotherapy between January 1997 and December 2014 in Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital. The defined cutoff values for the NLR and PC were 3.0 and 400 × 103/μL, respectively. Patients were scored 1 for either an elevated NLR or PC, and 0 otherwise. The NPS was calculated by summing the scores, ranging from 0 to 2. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS by using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to identify the independent prognostic factors for OS.In total, 256 metastatic UC patients were enrolled. Univariate analysis revealed that patients with either a high NLR or PC had a significantly shorter survival rate compared with those with a low NLR (P = .001 or PC (P < .0001. The median OS in patients with NPS 0, 1, and 2 was 19.0, 12.8, and 9.3 months, respectively (P < .0001. Multivariate analysis revealed that NPS, along with the histologic variant, liver metastasis, age, and white cell count, was an independent factor facilitating OS prediction (hazard ratio 1.64, 95% confidence interval 1.20-2.24, P = .002.The NLR and PC are independent prognostic factors for OS in patients with metastatic UC. The NPS model has excellent discriminant ability for OS.

  6. An inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score system in patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma in rituximab era.

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    Sun, Feifei; Zhu, Jia; Lu, Suying; Zhen, Zijun; Wang, Juan; Huang, Junting; Ding, Zonghui; Zeng, Musheng; Sun, Xiaofei

    2018-01-02

    Systemic inflammatory parameters are associated with poor outcomes in malignant patients. Several inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score systems were established for various solid tumors. However, there is few inflammation based cumulative prognostic score system for patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL). We retrospectively reviewed 564 adult DLBCL patients who had received rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisolone (R-CHOP) therapy between Nov 1 2006 and Dec 30 2013 and assessed the prognostic significance of six systemic inflammatory parameters evaluated in previous studies by univariate and multivariate analysis:C-reactive protein(CRP), albumin levels, the lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR), the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio(NLR), the platelet-lymphocyte ratio(PLR)and fibrinogen levels. Multivariate analysis identified CRP, albumin levels and the LMR are three independent prognostic parameters for overall survival (OS). Based on these three factors, we constructed a novel inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score (ICPS) system. Four risk groups were formed: group ICPS = 0, ICPS = 1, ICPS = 2 and ICPS = 3. Advanced multivariate analysis indicated that the ICPS model is a prognostic score system independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) for both progression-free survival (PFS) (p systemic inflammatory status was associated with clinical outcomes of patients with DLBCL in rituximab era. The ICPS model was shown to classify risk groups more accurately than any single inflammatory prognostic parameters. These findings may be useful for identifying candidates for further inflammation-related mechanism research or novel anti-inflammation target therapies.

  7. The inflammation-based Glasgow Prognostic Score predicts survival in patients with cervical cancer.

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    Polterauer, Stephan; Grimm, Christoph; Seebacher, Veronika; Rahhal, Jasmin; Tempfer, Clemens; Reinthaller, Alexander; Hefler, Lukas

    2010-08-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) is known to reflect the degree of tumor-associated cachexia and inflammation and is associated with survival in various malignancies. We investigated the value of the GPS in patients with cervical cancer. We included 244 consecutive patients with cervical cancer in our study. The pretherapeutic GPS was calculated as follows: patients with elevated C-reactive protein serum levels (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (L) were allocated a score of 2, and patients with 1 or no abnormal value were allocated a score of 1 or 0, respectively. The association between GPS and survival was evaluated by univariate log-rank tests and multivariate Cox regression models. The GPS was correlated with clinicopathologic parameters as shown by performing chi2 tests. In univariate analyses, GPS (P GPS (P = 0.03, P = 0.04), FIGO stage (P = 0.006, P = 0.006), and lymph node involvement (P = 0.003, P = 0.002), but not patients' age (P = 0.5, P = 0.5), histological grade (P = 0.7, P = 0.6), and histological type (P = 0.4, P = 0.6) were associated with disease-free and overall survival, respectively. The GPS was associated with FIGO stage (P GPS can be used as an inflammation-based predictor for survival in patients with cervical cancer.

  8. Inflammation-based prognostic score is a useful predictor of postoperative outcome in patients with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

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    Oshiro, Yukio; Sasaki, Ryoko; Fukunaga, Kiyoshi; Kondo, Tadashi; Oda, Tatsuya; Takahashi, Hideto; Ohkohchi, Nobuhiro

    2013-03-01

    Recent studies have revealed that the Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score, is useful for predicting outcome in a variety of cancers. This study sought to investigate the significance of GPS for prognostication of patients who underwent surgery with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. We retrospectively analyzed a total of 62 patients who underwent resection for extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. We calculated the GPS as follows: patients with both an elevated C-reactive protein (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (L) were allocated a score of 2; patients with one or none of these abnormalities were allocated a s ore of 1 or 0, respectively. Prognostic significance was analyzed by the log-rank test and a Cox proportional hazards model. Overall survival rate was 25.5 % at 5 years for all 62 patients. Venous invasion (p = 0.01), pathological primary tumor category (p = 0.013), lymph node metastasis category (p GPS (p = 0.008) were significantly associated with survival by univariate analysis. A Cox model demonstrated that increased GPS was an independent predictive factor with poor prognosis. The preoperative GPS is a useful predictor of postoperative outcome in patients with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

  9. Prealbumin/CRP Based Prognostic Score, a New Tool for Predicting Metastasis in Patients with Inoperable Gastric Cancer

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    Ali Esfahani

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. There is a considerable dissimilarity in the survival duration of the patients with gastric cancer. We aimed to assess the systemic inflammatory response (SIR and nutritional status of these patients before the commencement of chemotherapy to find the appropriate prognostic factors and define a new score for predicting metastasis. Methods. SIR was assessed using Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS. Then a score was defined as prealbumin/CRP based prognostic score (PCPS to be compared with GPS for predicting metastasis and nutritional status. Results. 71 patients with gastric cancer were recruited in the study. 87% of patients had malnutrition. There was a statistical difference between those with metastatic (n=43 and those with nonmetastatic (n=28 gastric cancer according to levels of prealbumin and CRP; however they were not different regarding patient generated subjective global assessment (PG-SGA and GPS. The best cut-off value for prealbumin was determined at 0.20 mg/dL and PCPS could predict metastasis with 76.5% sensitivity, 63.6% specificity, and 71.4% accuracy. Metastatic and nonmetastatic gastric cancer patients were different in terms of PCPS (P=0.005. Conclusion. PCPS has been suggested for predicting metastasis in patients with gastric cancer. Future studies with larger sample size have been warranted.

  10. A new extranodal scoring system based on the prognostically relevant extranodal sites in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, not otherwise specified treated with chemoimmunotherapy.

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    Hwang, Hee Sang; Yoon, Dok Hyun; Suh, Cheolwon; Huh, Jooryung

    2016-08-01

    Extranodal involvement is a well-known prognostic factor in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCL). Nevertheless, the prognostic impact of the extranodal scoring system included in the conventional international prognostic index (IPI) has been questioned in an era where rituximab treatment has become widespread. We investigated the prognostic impacts of individual sites of extranodal involvement in 761 patients with DLBCL who received rituximab-based chemoimmunotherapy. Subsequently, we established a new extranodal scoring system based on extranodal sites, showing significant prognostic correlation, and compared this system with conventional scoring systems, such as the IPI and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network-IPI (NCCN-IPI). An internal validation procedure, using bootstrapped samples, was also performed for both univariate and multivariate models. Using multivariate analysis with a backward variable selection, we found nine extranodal sites (the liver, lung, spleen, central nervous system, bone marrow, kidney, skin, adrenal glands, and peritoneum) that remained significant for use in the final model. Our newly established extranodal scoring system, based on these sites, was better correlated with patient survival than standard scoring systems, such as the IPI and the NCCN-IPI. Internal validation by bootstrapping demonstrated an improvement in model performance of our modified extranodal scoring system. Our new extranodal scoring system, based on the prognostically relevant sites, may improve the performance of conventional prognostic models of DLBCL in the rituximab era and warrants further external validation using large study populations.

  11. A comparison of the prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based scores and TNM stage in patients with gastric cancer

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    Pan QX

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Qun-Xiong Pan,* Zi-Jian Su,* Jian-Hua Zhang, Chong-Ren Wang, Shao-Ying KeDepartment of Oncosurgery, Quanzhou First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, Fujian, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workBackground: People’s Republic of China is one of the countries with the highest incidence of gastric cancer, accounting for 45% of all new gastric cancer cases in the world. Therefore, strong prognostic markers are critical for the diagnosis and survival of Chinese patients suffering from gastric cancer. Recent studies have begun to unravel the mechanisms linking the host inflammatory response to tumor growth, invasion and metastasis in gastric cancers. Based on this relationship between inflammation and cancer progression, several inflammation-based scores have been demonstrated to have prognostic value in many types of malignant solid tumors.Objective: To compare the prognostic value of inflammation-based prognostic scores and tumor node metastasis (TNM stage in patients undergoing gastric cancer resection.Methods: The inflammation-based prognostic scores were calculated for 207 patients with gastric cancer who underwent surgery. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS, neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR, platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR, prognostic nutritional index (PNI, and prognostic index (PI were analyzed. Linear trend chi-square test, likelihood ratio chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic were performed to compare the prognostic value of the selected scores and TNM stage.Results: In univariate analysis, preoperative serum C-reactive protein (P<0.001, serum albumin (P<0.001, GPS (P<0.001, PLR (P=0.002, NLR (P<0.001, PI (P<0.001, PNI (P<0.001, and TNM stage (P<0.001 were significantly associated with both overall survival and disease-free survival of patients with gastric cancer. In multivariate analysis, GPS (P=0.024, NLR (P=0.012, PI (P=0.001, TNM stage (P<0.001, and degree of

  12. Inflammation-based prognostic score, prior to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, predicts postoperative outcome in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

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    Kobayashi, Takashi; Teruya, Masanori; Kishiki, Tomokazu; Endo, Daisuke; Takenaka, Yoshiharu; Tanaka, Hozumi; Miki, Kenji; Kobayashi, Kaoru; Morita, Koji

    2008-11-01

    Recent studies have revealed that Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score, is associated with poor outcome in a variety of tumors. However, few studies have investigated whether GPS measured prior to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) is useful for postoperative prognosis of patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). GPS was calculated on the basis of admission data as follows: patients with both an elevated C-reactive protein (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminaemia (L) were allocated a GPS score of 2. Patients in whom only 1 of these biochemical abnormalities was present were allocated a GPS score of 1, and patients with a normal C-reactive protein and albumin were allocated a score of 0. All patients underwent radical en-bloc resection 3-4 weeks after nCRT. A total of 48 patients with clinical TNM stage II/III were enrolled. Univariate analyses revealed that there were significant differences in cancer-specific survival in relation to grade of response to nCRT (P = .004), lymph node status (P = .0065), lymphatic invasion (P = .0002), venous invasion (P = .0001), pathological TNM classification (P = .015), and GPS (P GPS classification showed a close relationship with lymphatic invasion, venous invasion, and number of lymph node (P = .0292, .0473, and .0485, respectively). GPS was found to be the only independent predictor of cancer-specific survival (odds ratio, 0.17; 95% confidence interval, 0.06-0.52; P = .0019). GPS, measured prior to nCRT, is an independent novel predictor of postoperative outcome in patients with advanced ESCC.

  13. Computed tomographic findings in dogs with head trauma and development of a novel prognostic computed tomography-based scoring system.

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    Chai, Orit; Peery, Dana; Bdolah-Abram, Tali; Moscovich, Efrat; Kelmer, Efrat; Klainbart, Sigal; Milgram, Joshua; Shamir, Merav H

    2017-09-01

    OBJECTIVE To characterize CT findings and outcomes in dogs with head trauma and design a prognostic scale. ANIMALS 27 dogs admitted to the Koret School Veterinary Teaching Hospital within 72 hours after traumatic head injury that underwent CT imaging of the head. PROCEDURES Data were extracted from medical records regarding dog signalment, history, physical and neurologic examination findings, and modified Glasgow coma scale scores. All CT images were retrospectively evaluated by a radiologist unaware of dog status. Short-term (10 days after trauma) and long-term (≥ 6 months after trauma) outcomes were determined, and CT findings and other variables were analyzed for associations with outcome. A prognostic CT-based scale was developed on the basis of the results. RESULTS Cranial vault fractures, parenchymal abnormalities, or both were identified via CT in 24 of 27 (89%) dogs. Three (11%) dogs had only facial bone fractures. Intracranial hemorrhage was identified in 16 (59%) dogs, cranial vault fractures in 15 (56%), midline shift in 14 (52%), lateral ventricle asymmetry in 12 (44%), and hydrocephalus in 7 (26%). Hemorrhage and ventricular asymmetry were significantly and negatively associated with short- and long-term survival, respectively. The developed 7-point prognostic scale included points for hemorrhage, midline shift or lateral ventricle asymmetry, cranial vault fracture, and depressed fracture (1 point each) and infratentorial lesion (3 points). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE The findings reported here may assist in determining prognoses for other dogs with head trauma. The developed scale may be useful for outcome assessment of dogs with head trauma; however, it must be validated before clinical application.

  14. Prognostic factors and scoring system for survival in colonic perforation.

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    Komatsu, Shuhei; Shimomatsuya, Takumi; Nakajima, Masayuki; Amaya, Hirokazu; Kobuchi, Taketsune; Shiraishi, Susumu; Konishi, Sayuri; Ono, Susumu; Maruhashi, Kazuhiro

    2005-01-01

    No ideal and generally accepted prognostic factors and scoring systems exist to determine the prognosis of peritonitis associated with colonic perforation. This study was designed to investigate prognostic factors and evaluate the various scoring systems to allow identification of high-risk patients. Between 1996 and 2003, excluding iatrogenic and trauma cases, 26 consecutive patients underwent emergency operations for colorectal perforation and were selected for this retrospective study. Several clinical factors were analyzed as possible predictive factors, and APACHE II, SOFA, MPI, and MOF scores were calculated. The overall mortality was 26.9%. Compared with the survivors, non-survivors were found more frequently in Hinchey's stage III-IV, a low preoperative marker of pH, base excess (BE), and a low postoperative marker of white blood cell count, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, and renal output (24h). According to the logistic regression model, BE was a significant independent variable. Concerning the prognostic scoring systems, an APACHE II score of 19, a SOFA score of 8, an MPI score of 30, and an MOF score of 7 or more were significantly related to poor prognosis. Preoperative BE and postoperative white blood cell count were reliable prognostic factors and early classification using prognostic scoring systems at specific points in the disease process are useful to improve our understanding of the problems involved.

  15. Primary radiotherapy or postoperative radiotherapy in patients with head and neck cancer. Comparative analysis of inflammation-based prognostic scoring systems

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    Selzer, Edgar; Grah, Anja; Heiduschka, Gregor; Thurnher, Dietmar; Kornek, Gabriela

    2015-01-01

    Inflammation-based scoring systems have potential value in evaluating the prognosis of cancer patients; however, detailed comparative analyses in well-characterized head and neck cancer patient collectives are missing. We analyzed overall survival (OS) in locally advanced head and neck cancer patients who were treated with curative intent by primary radiotherapy (RT) alone, by RT in combination with cetuximab (RIT) or with cisplatin (RCHT), and by primary surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy (PORT). The primary RT collective (N = 170) was analyzed separately from the surgery plus RT group (N = 148). OS was estimated using the Kaplan-Meyer method. Cox proportional-hazard regression models were applied to compare the risk of death among patients stratified according to risk factors and the inflammation-based Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), the modified GPS (mGPS), the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), the platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and the prognostic index (PI). A prognostic relevance of the scoring systems for OS was observed in the primarily irradiated, but not in the PORT collective. OS was 35.5, 18.8, and 15.4 months, respectively, according to GPS 0, 1, and 2. OS according to mGPS 0-2 was identical. The PLR scoring system was not of prognostic relevance, while OS was 27.3 months in the NLR 0 group and 17.3 months in the NLR 1 group. OS was 35.5 months in PI 0, 16.1 months in PI 1, and 22.6 months in PI 2. GPS/mGPS scoring systems are able to discriminate between three risk groups in primarily, but not postoperatively irradiated locally advanced head and neck cancer patients. (orig.) [de

  16. Naples Prognostic Score, Based on Nutritional and Inflammatory Status, is an Independent Predictor of Long-term Outcome in Patients Undergoing Surgery for Colorectal Cancer.

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    Galizia, Gennaro; Lieto, Eva; Auricchio, Annamaria; Cardella, Francesca; Mabilia, Andrea; Podzemny, Vlasta; Castellano, Paolo; Orditura, Michele; Napolitano, Vincenzo

    2017-12-01

    The existing scores reflecting the patient's nutritional and inflammatory status do not include all biomarkers and have been poorly studied in colorectal cancers. The purpose of this study was to assess a new prognostic tool, the Naples prognostic score, comparing it with the prognostic nutritional index, controlling nutritional status score, and systemic inflammation score. This was an analysis of patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer. The study was conducted at a university hospital. A total of 562 patients who underwent surgery for colorectal cancer in July 2004 through June 2014 and 468 patients undergoing potentially curative surgery were included. MaxStat analysis dichotomized neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio, lymphocyte:monocyte ratio, prognostic nutritional index, and the controlling nutritional status score. The Naples prognostic scores were divided into 3 groups (group 0, 1, and 2). The receiver operating characteristic curve for censored survival data compared the prognostic performance of the scoring systems. Overall survival and complication rates in all patients, as well as recurrence and disease-free survival rates in radically resected patients, were measured. The Naples prognostic score correlated positively with the other scoring systems (p cancer. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/A469.

  17. Comparison of an inflammation-based prognostic score (GPS) with performance status (ECOG-ps) in patients receiving palliative chemotherapy for gastroesophageal cancer.

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    Crumley, Andrew B C; Stuart, Robert C; McKernan, Margaret; McDonald, Alexander C; McMillan, Donald C

    2008-08-01

    The aim of the present study was to compare an inflammation-based prognostic score (Glasgow Prognostic Score, GPS) with performance status (ECOG-ps) in patients receiving platinum-based chemotherapy for palliation of gastroesophageal cancer. Sixty-five patients presenting with gastroesophageal carcinoma to the Royal Infirmary, Glasgow between January 1999 and December 2005 and who received palliative chemotherapy or chemo-radiotherapy were studied. ECOG-ps, C-reactive protein, and albumin were recorded at diagnosis. Patients with both an elevated C-reactive protein (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (L) were allocated a GPS of 2. Patients in whom only one of these biochemical abnormalities was present were allocated a GPS of 1 and patients with a normal C-reactive protein and albumin were allocated a score of 0. Toxicity was recorded using the Common Toxicity Criteria. The minimum follow up was 14 months. During the follow-up period, 59 (91%) of the patients died. On univariate and multivariate survival analysis, only the GPS (hazard ratios 1.65, 95% CI 1.10-2.47, P GPS of 0, those patients with a GPS of 1 or 2 required more frequent chemotherapy dose reduction (P GPS, appears to be superior to the subjective assessment of performance status (ECOG-ps) in predicting the response to platinum-based chemotherapy in patients with advanced gastroesophageal cancer.

  18. Evaluation of a prognostic scoring system based on the systemic inflammatory and nutritional status of patients with locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer treated with chemoradiotherapy

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    Mitsuyoshi, Takamasa; Matsuo, Yukinori; Itou, Hitoshi; Shintani, Takashi; Iizuka, Yusuke; Kim, Young Hak; Mizowaki, Takashi

    2018-01-01

    Systemic inflammation and poor nutritional status have a negative effect on the outcomes of cancer. Here, we analyzed the effects of the pretreatment inflammatory and nutritional status on clinical outcomes of locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. We retrospectively reviewed 89 patients with locally advanced NSCLC treated with chemoradiotherapy between July 2006 and June 2013. Serum C-reactive protein (CRP) was assessed as an inflammatory marker, and serum albumin, body mass index (BMI) and skeletal mass index were assessed as nutritional status markers. The relationships between these markers and overall survival (OS) were assessed. The median OS was 24.6 months [95% confidence interval (CI): 19.4–39.3 months]. During follow-up, 58 patients (65%) had disease recurrence and 52 patients (58%) died. In multivariate Cox hazard analysis, CRP levels and BMI approached but did not achieve a significant association with OS (P = 0.062 and 0.094, respectively). Recursive partitioning analysis identified three prognostic groups based on hazard similarity (CRP-BMI scores): 0 = CRP < 0.3 mg/dl, 1 = CRP ≥ 0.3 mg/dl and BMI ≥ 18.5 kg/m 2 , and 2 = CRP ≥ 0.3 mg/dl and BMI < 18.5 kg/m 2 . The CRP-BMI score was significantly associated with OS (P = 0.023). Patients with scores of 0, 1 and 2 had median OS of 39.3, 24.5 and 14.5 months, respectively, and the scores also predicted the probability of receiving salvage treatment after recurrence. The CRP-BMI score is thus a simple and useful prognostic marker of clinical outcome for patients with locally advanced NSCLC treated with chemoradiotherapy.

  19. SYNTAX score based on coronary computed tomography angiography may have a prognostic value in patients with complex coronary artery disease: An observational study from a retrospective cohort.

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    Suh, Young Joo; Han, Kyunghwa; Chang, Suyon; Kim, Jin Young; Im, Dong Jin; Hong, Yoo Jin; Lee, Hye-Jeong; Hur, Jin; Kim, Young Jin; Choi, Byoung Wook

    2017-09-01

    The SYNergy between percutaneous coronary intervention with TAXus and cardiac surgery (SYNTAX) score is an invasive coronary angiography (ICA)-based score for quantifying the complexity of coronary artery disease (CAD). Although the SYNTAX score was originally developed based on ICA, recent publications have reported that coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) is a feasible modality for the estimation of the SYNTAX score.The aim of our study was to investigate the prognostic value of the SYNTAX score, based on CCTA for the prediction of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) in patients with complex CAD.The current study was approved by the institutional review board of our institution, and informed consent was waived for this retrospective cohort study. We included 251 patients (173 men, mean age 66.0 ± 9.29 years) who had complex CAD [3-vessel disease or left main (LM) disease] on CCTA. SYNTAX score was obtained on the basis of CCTA. Follow-up clinical outcome data regarding composite MACCEs were also obtained. Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict the risk of MACCEs based on clinical variables, treatment, and computed tomography (CT)-SYNTAX scores.During the median follow-up period of 1517 days, there were 48 MACCEs. Univariate Cox hazards models demonstrated that MACCEs were associated with advanced age, low body mass index (BMI), and dyslipidemia (P < .2). In patients with LM disease, MACCEs were associated with a higher SYNTAX score. In patients with CT-SYNTAX score ≥23, patients who underwent coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) and percutaneous coronary intervention had significantly lower hazard ratios than patients who were treated with medication alone. In multivariate Cox hazards model, advanced age, low BMI, and higher SYNTAX score showed an increased hazard ratio for MACCE, while treatment with CABG showed a lower hazard ratio (P < .2).On the basis of our results, CT-SYNTAX score

  20. Primary radiotherapy or postoperative radiotherapy in patients with head and neck cancer. Comparative analysis of inflammation-based prognostic scoring systems

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    Selzer, Edgar; Grah, Anja [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Radiotherapy, Vienna (Austria); Heiduschka, Gregor; Thurnher, Dietmar [Medical University of Vienna, Otorhinolaryngology - Head and Neck Surgery, Vienna (Austria); Kornek, Gabriela [Medical University of Vienna, Medicine I - Division of Clinical Oncology, Vienna (Austria)

    2015-01-13

    Inflammation-based scoring systems have potential value in evaluating the prognosis of cancer patients; however, detailed comparative analyses in well-characterized head and neck cancer patient collectives are missing. We analyzed overall survival (OS) in locally advanced head and neck cancer patients who were treated with curative intent by primary radiotherapy (RT) alone, by RT in combination with cetuximab (RIT) or with cisplatin (RCHT), and by primary surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy (PORT). The primary RT collective (N = 170) was analyzed separately from the surgery plus RT group (N = 148). OS was estimated using the Kaplan-Meyer method. Cox proportional-hazard regression models were applied to compare the risk of death among patients stratified according to risk factors and the inflammation-based Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), the modified GPS (mGPS), the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), the platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and the prognostic index (PI). A prognostic relevance of the scoring systems for OS was observed in the primarily irradiated, but not in the PORT collective. OS was 35.5, 18.8, and 15.4 months, respectively, according to GPS 0, 1, and 2. OS according to mGPS 0-2 was identical. The PLR scoring system was not of prognostic relevance, while OS was 27.3 months in the NLR 0 group and 17.3 months in the NLR 1 group. OS was 35.5 months in PI 0, 16.1 months in PI 1, and 22.6 months in PI 2. GPS/mGPS scoring systems are able to discriminate between three risk groups in primarily, but not postoperatively irradiated locally advanced head and neck cancer patients. (orig.) [German] Entzuendungsbasierte Bewertungssysteme haben eine potenzielle Bedeutung fuer die Beurteilung der Prognose von Krebspatienten. Derzeit fehlen jedoch ausreichend detailliert durchgefuehrte Analysen in Kollektiven von Patienten mit Kopf-Hals-Tumoren. Untersucht wurde das Gesamtueberleben (''overall survival'', OS) von Patienten mit lokal

  1. Prognostic significance of Glasgow prognostic score in patients undergoing esophagectomy for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

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    Feng, Ji-Feng; Zhao, Qiang; Chen, Qi-Xun

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies have revealed that Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score, is inversely related to prognosis in a variety of cancers; high levels of GPS is associated with poor prognosis. However, few studies regarding GPS in esophageal cancer (EC) are available. The aim of this study was to determine whether the GPS is useful for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). The GPS was calculated on the basis of admission data as follows: Patients with elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) level (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (L) were assigned to GPS2. Patients with one or no abnormal value were assigned to GPS1 or GPS0, respectively. Our study showed that GPS was associated with tumor size, depth of invasion, and nodal metastasis (PGPS0, GPS1, and GPS2 were 60.8%, 34.7% and 10.7%, respectively (PGPS was a significant predictor of CSS. GPS1-2 had a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.399 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.805-3.190] for 1-year CSS (PGPS is associated with tumor progression. GPS can be considered as an independent prognostic factor in patients who underwent esophagectomy for ESCC.

  2. Multiple Score Comparison: a network meta-analysis approach to comparison and external validation of prognostic scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah R. Haile

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prediction models and prognostic scores have been increasingly popular in both clinical practice and clinical research settings, for example to aid in risk-based decision making or control for confounding. In many medical fields, a large number of prognostic scores are available, but practitioners may find it difficult to choose between them due to lack of external validation as well as lack of comparisons between them. Methods Borrowing methodology from network meta-analysis, we describe an approach to Multiple Score Comparison meta-analysis (MSC which permits concurrent external validation and comparisons of prognostic scores using individual patient data (IPD arising from a large-scale international collaboration. We describe the challenges in adapting network meta-analysis to the MSC setting, for instance the need to explicitly include correlations between the scores on a cohort level, and how to deal with many multi-score studies. We propose first using IPD to make cohort-level aggregate discrimination or calibration scores, comparing all to a common comparator. Then, standard network meta-analysis techniques can be applied, taking care to consider correlation structures in cohorts with multiple scores. Transitivity, consistency and heterogeneity are also examined. Results We provide a clinical application, comparing prognostic scores for 3-year mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using data from a large-scale collaborative initiative. We focus on the discriminative properties of the prognostic scores. Our results show clear differences in performance, with ADO and eBODE showing higher discrimination with respect to mortality than other considered scores. The assumptions of transitivity and local and global consistency were not violated. Heterogeneity was small. Conclusions We applied a network meta-analytic methodology to externally validate and concurrently compare the prognostic properties

  3. A Novel Inflammation-Based Prognostic Score: The Fibrinogen/Albumin Ratio Predicts Prognoses of Patients after Curative Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiaodong Xu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Inflammation is an important hallmark of cancer. Fibrinogen and albumin are both vital factors in systemic inflammation. This study investigated the prognostic value of the fibrinogen/albumin ratio in HCC patients who underwent curative resection. Methods. HCC patients (n=151 who underwent curative resection were evaluated retrospectively. The optimal cutoff value for the fibrinogen/albumin ratio was selected by receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve analysis. Correlations between preoperative fibrinogen/albumin ratios and clinicopathologic characteristics were analyzed by χ2 test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC was calculated to compare the prognostic value of the fibrinogen/albumin ratio with other prognostic scores (neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR, platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR, and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI score. The overall survival (OS and time to recurrence (TTR were assessed by the log-rank test and the Cox proportional hazard regression model. Results. An optimal cutoff value of the preoperative fibrinogen/albumin ratio (0.062 was determined for 151 patients who underwent curative resection for HCC via a ROC curve analysis. Fibrinogen/albumin ratio > 0.062 was significantly associated with microvascular invasion, an advanced BCLC stage, and ALBI grade. Multivariate analyses revealed that fibrinogen/albumin ratio was an independent predictor for OS (P=0.003 and TTR (P=0.035. The prognostic ability of fibrinogen/albumin ratio was comparable to other prognostic scores (NLR, PLR, and ALBI score by AUC analysis. Patients with a fibrinogen/albumin ratio > 0.062 had lower 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates (66.0%, 41.8%, and 28.2% versus 81.9%, 69.3%, and 56.1%, resp., P<0.001 and higher 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence rates (60.9%, 79.2%, and 90.5% versus 49.5%, 69.1%, and 77.1%, resp., P=0.008 compared with patients with fibrinogen/albumin ratio ≤ 0.062. Conclusion. The

  4. Improving the prognostic value of blunt abdominal trauma scoring ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Radiographic imaging showed positive signs of trauma (air under diaphragm, elevated copula of diaphragm) in 45 patients. Conclusion Adding a simple radiographic film in the erect position of the abdomen and lower chest markedly improved the prognostic value of the different scoring systems included. Ann Pediatr Surg ...

  5. Thai venous stroke prognostic score: TV-SPSS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poungvarin, Niphon; Prayoonwiwat, Naraporn; Ratanakorn, Disya; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tassanee; Suwanwela, Nijasri; Phanthumchinda, Kamman; Tiamkoa, Somsak; Chankrachang, Siwaporn; Nidhinandana, Samart; Laptikultham, Somsak; Limsoontarakul, Sansern; Udomphanthuruk, Suthipol

    2009-11-01

    Prognosis of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) has never been studied in Thailand. A simple prognostic score to predict poor prognosis of CVST has also never been reported. The authors are aiming to establish a simple and reliable prognostic score for this condition. The medical records of CVST patients from eight neurological training centers in Thailand who received between April 1993 and September 2005 were reviewed as part of this retrospective study. Clinical features included headache, seizure, stroke risk factors, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), blood pressure on arrival, papilledema, hemiparesis, meningeal irritation sign, location of occluded venous sinuses, hemorrhagic infarction, cerebrospinal fluid opening pressure, treatment options, length of stay, and other complications were analyzed to determine the outcome using modified Rankin scale (mRS). Poor prognosis (defined as mRS of 3-6) was determined on the discharge date. One hundred ninety four patients' records, 127 females (65.5%) and mean age of 36.6 +/- 14.4 years, were analyzed Fifty-one patients (26.3%) were in the poor outcome group (mRS 3-6). Overall mortality was 8.4%. Univariate analysis and then multivariate analysis using SPSS version 11.5 revealed only four statistically significant predictors influencing outcome of CVST They were underlying malignancy, low GCS, presence of hemorrhagic infarction (for poor outcome), and involvement of lateral sinus (for good outcome). Thai venous stroke prognostic score (TV-SPSS) was derived from these four factors using a multiple logistic model. A simple and pragmatic prognostic score for CVST outcome has been developed with high sensitivity (93%), yet low specificity (33%). The next study should focus on the validation of this score in other prospective populations.

  6. Glasgow Prognostic Score as a Prognostic Clinical Marker in T4 Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohira, Masaichi; Kubo, Naoshi; Masuda, Go; Yamashita, Yoshito; Sakurai, Katsunobu; Toyokawa, Takahiro; Tanaka, Hiroaki; Muguruma, Kazuya; Hirakawa, Kosei

    2015-09-01

    Patients with clinical T4 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) have an unfavorable prognosis, mainly indicated by the response to chemoradiotherapy (CRT), crucial to estimating long-term survival. Other prognostic measures include systemic inflammatory or immunonutritional indices such as the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) and Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI) that have not been sufficiently documented. This study retrospectively evaluated 91 patients with T4 ESCC treated at our Hospital between 2000 and 2013. All patients initially received CRT, including 5-fluorouracil (5FU) and cisplatin or nedaplatin with concurrent 2-Gy/fraction radiation (total dose, 40-60 Gy). Curative tumor resection was undertaken in suitable patients on completing CRT. Patients were classified as GPS0, GPS1, or GPS2 based on C-reactive protein (CRP) ≤ 10 mg/l and albumin ≥ 35 g/l, CRP >10 mg/l or albumin l, or CRP >10 mg/l and albumin l, respectively. PNI was calculated as 10-times the serum albumin (g/dl)+0.005 × total lymphocyte count (/mm(3)). The impact of the pre-treatment GPS and PNI on the prognosis of patients with T4 ESCC was investigated in univariate and multivariate analyses. Sixty (67%) patients responded to CRT (9 complete responses and 51 partial responses). Forty-one (45%) patients also underwent surgical resection of the residual tumor. The overall 5-year survival rate and median survival time were 27.0% and 11.8 months, respectively. In the cohort of CRT-plus-surgical resection, the 5-year survival rate was significantly higher than in the groups treated with CRT-alone (51.1% vs. 6.5%; p GPS1/2 (HR=2.151, p=0.015), and surgical resection (HR=0.282, pGPS is a useful, simple survival marker for patients with T4 ESCC undergoing multimodal therapy. Copyright© 2015 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

  7. Validation of a new prognostic index score for disseminated nasopharyngeal carcinoma

    OpenAIRE

    Toh, C-K; Heng, D; Ong, Y-K; Leong, S-S; Wee, J; Tan, E-H

    2005-01-01

    Patients with metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma have variable survival outcomes. We previously designed a scoring system to better prognosticate these patients. Here, we report results on validation of this new prognostic index score in a separate cohort of patients. Clinical features and laboratory parameters were examined in 172 patients with univariate and multivariate analyses and a numerical score was derived for each independent prognostic variable. Significant independent prognostic ...

  8. [Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: I. Long-term prognostic scores].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junod, Alain F

    2013-10-16

    The chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or COPD will probably be in the year 2020 the third cause of death in the world. It appears therefore appropriate to try to make available tools capable of assessing the prognosis of patients with this disease. In the first part of this series of two papers, the question of the prognosis of stable COPD over several years is addressed. Eight prognostic scores are discussed, all of them published between 2004 and 2012. Their components and characteristics are analysed and commented upon, with, in particular, emphasis on their discriminating power. An Internet program (www.medhyg. ch/scoredoc) supplements this review.

  9. The Basilar Artery on Computed Tomography Angiography Prognostic Score for Basilar Artery Occlusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alemseged, Fana; Shah, Darshan G; Diomedi, Marina; Sallustio, Fabrizio; Bivard, Andrew; Sharma, Gagan; Mitchell, Peter J; Dowling, Richard J; Bush, Steven; Yan, Bernard; Caltagirone, Carlo; Floris, Roberto; Parsons, Mark W; Levi, Christopher R; Davis, Stephen M; Campbell, Bruce C V

    2017-03-01

    Basilar artery occlusion is associated with high risk of disability and mortality. This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of a new radiological score: the Basilar Artery on Computed Tomography Angiography (BATMAN) score. A retrospective analysis of consecutive stroke patients with basilar artery occlusion diagnosed on computed tomographic angiography was performed. BATMAN score is a 10-point computed tomographic angiography-based grading system which incorporates thrombus burden and the presence of collaterals. Reliability was assessed with intraclass coefficient correlation. Good outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale score of ≤3 at 3 months and successful reperfusion as thrombolysis in cerebral infarction 2b-3. BATMAN score was externally validated and compared with the Posterior Circulation Collateral score. The derivation cohort included 83 patients with 41 in the validation cohort. In receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, BATMAN score had an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7-0.9) in derivation cohort and an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.6-0.9) in validation cohort. In logistic regression adjusted for age and clinical severity, BATMAN score of BATMAN score of BATMAN score had greater accuracy compared with Posterior Circulation Collateral score ( P =0.04). The addition of collateral quality to clot burden in BATMAN score seems to improve prognostic accuracy in basilar artery occlusion patients. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  10. Prognostic value of the Glasgow Prognostic Score for glioblastoma multiforme patients treated with radiotherapy and temozolomide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topkan, Erkan; Selek, Ugur; Ozdemir, Yurday; Yildirim, Berna A; Guler, Ozan C; Ciner, Fuat; Mertsoylu, Huseyin; Tufan, Kadir

    2018-04-25

    To evaluate the prognostic value of the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), the combination of C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin, in glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) patients treated with radiotherapy (RT) and concurrent plus adjuvant temozolomide (GPS). Data of newly diagnosed GBM patients treated with partial brain RT and concurrent and adjuvant TMZ were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were grouped into three according to the GPS criteria: GPS-0: CRP L and albumin > 35 g/L; GPS-1: CRP L and albumin L or CRP > 10 mg/L and albumin > 35 g/L; and GPS-2: CRP > 10 mg/L and albumin L. Primary end-point was the association between the GPS groups and the overall survival (OS) outcomes. A total of 142 patients were analyzed (median age: 58 years, 66.2% male). There were 64 (45.1%), 40 (28.2%), and 38 (26.7%) patients in GPS-0, GPS-1, and GPS-2 groups, respectively. At median 15.7 months follow-up, the respective median and 5-year OS rates for the whole cohort were 16.2 months (95% CI 12.7-19.7) and 9.5%. In multivariate analyses GPS grouping emerged independently associated with the median OS (P GPS grouping and the RTOG RPA classification were found to be strongly correlated in prognostic stratification of GBM patients (correlation coefficient: 0.42; P GPS appeared to be useful in prognostic stratification of GBM patients into three groups with significantly different survival durations resembling the RTOG RPA classification.

  11. Predictive value of seven preoperative prognostic scoring systems for spinal metastases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leithner, Andreas; Radl, Roman; Gruber, Gerald; Hochegger, Markus; Leithner, Katharina; Welkerling, Heike; Rehak, Peter; Windhager, Reinhard

    2008-11-01

    . However, decision for or against surgery should never be based alone on a prognostic score but should take symptoms like pain or neurological compromise into account.

  12. A prognostic scoring model for survival after locoregional therapy in de novo stage IV breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kommalapati, Anuhya; Tella, Sri Harsha; Goyal, Gaurav; Ganti, Apar Kishor; Krishnamurthy, Jairam; Tandra, Pavan Kumar

    2018-05-02

    The role of locoregional treatment (LRT) remains controversial in de novo stage IV breast cancer (BC). We sought to analyze the role of LRT and prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) in de novo stage IV BC patients treated with LRT utilizing the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB). The objective of the current study is to create and internally validate a prognostic scoring model to predict the long-term OS for de novo stage IV BC patients treated with LRT. We included de novo stage IV BC patients reported to NCDB between 2004 and 2015. Patients were divided into LRT and no-LRT subsets. We randomized LRT subset to training and validation cohorts. In the training cohort, a seventeen-point prognostic scoring system was developed based on the hazard ratios calculated using Cox-proportional method. We stratified both training and validation cohorts into two "groups" [group 1 (0-7 points) and group 2 (7-17 points)]. Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to compare OS between the two groups. Our prognostic score was validated internally by comparing the OS between the respective groups in both the training and validation cohorts. Among 67,978 patients, LRT subset (21,200) had better median OS as compared to that of no-LRT (45 vs. 24 months; p < 0.0001). The group 1 and group 2 in the training cohort showed a significant difference in the 3-year OS (p < 0.0001) (68 vs. 26%). On internal validation, comparable OS was seen between the respective groups in each cohort (p = 0.77). Our prognostic scoring system will help oncologists to predict the prognosis in de novo stage IV BC patients treated with LRT. Although firm treatment-related conclusions cannot be made due to the retrospective nature of the study, LRT appears to be associated with a better OS in specific subgroups.

  13. The Predictive Value of Scores Used in Intensive Care Unit for Burn Patients Prognostic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novac, M; Dragoescu, Alice; Stanculescu, Andreea; Duca, Lucica; Cernea, Daniela

    2014-01-01

    Statistical evaluation of the prognosis of burned patients based on the analysis of prognostic scores as quickly and easily obtainable that track the evolution of burned patient in ICU. Material / Methods: The prospective study included 92 patients were performed with severe burns on 35-67% body surface large area, aiming to establish a cut-off score for each studied and statistically significant prognostic parameter for assessing the risk of mortality. The control group was represented by 20 patients with burns on the body surface of 0.05) sex (male / female), but we had p cut-off. Quantification of variables by calculating the area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity and sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV), allowed a better appreciation of these prognostic scores. These systems applicable to the burned patient scores, making a cut-off of each index / mortality probability score, he can manifest usefulness in medical decision making process and strategy to reduce the risk of death in patients with severe burns.

  14. Distributed Prognostics Based on Structural Model Decomposition

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within systems health management, prognostics focuses on predicting the remaining useful life of a system. In the model-based prognostics paradigm, physics-based...

  15. Prediction of surgical outcome in compressive cervical myelopathy: A novel clinicoradiological prognostic score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rishi Anil Aggarwal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Preoperative severity of myelopathy, age, and duration of symptoms have been shown to be highly predictive of the outcome in compressive cervical myelopathy (CCM. The role of radiological parameters is still controversial. Aims: Define the prognostic factors in CCM and formulate a prognostic score to predict the outcome following surgery in CCM. Settings and Design: Retrospective. Materials and Methods: This study included 78 consecutive patients with CCM treated surgically. The modified Japanese Orthopaedic Association (mJOA scale was used to quantify severity of myelopathy at admission and at 12-month follow-up. The outcome was defined as "good" if the patient had mJOA score ≥16 and "poor" if the score was <16. Age, sex, duration of symptoms, comorbidities, intrinsic hand muscle wasting (IHMW, diagnosis, surgical technique, Torg ratio, instability on dynamic radiographs, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI signal intensity changes were assessed. Statistics: Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS (version 20.0 was used for statistical analysis. The association was assessed amongst variables using logistic regression analysis. Parameters having a statistically significant correlation with the outcome were included in formulating a prognostic score. Results: Severity of myelopathy, IHMW, age, duration, diabetes, and instability on radiographs were predictive of the outcome with a P value <0.01. Genders, diagnosis, surgical procedure, Torg ratio, and intensity changes on MRI were not significantly related to the outcome. A 8-point scoring system was devised incorporating the significant clinicoradiological parameters, and it was found that nearly all patients (97.82% with a score below 5 had good outcome and all patients (100% with a score above 5 had poor outcome. The outcome is difficult to predict with a score of 5. Conclusions: Clinical parameters are better predictors of the outcome as compared to radiological findings

  16. The prognostic value of the systemic inflammatory score in patients with unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibutani, Masatsune; Maeda, Kiyoshi; Nagahara, Hisashi; Fukuoka, Tatsunari; Matsutani, Shinji; Kimura, Kenjiro; Amano, Ryosuke; Hirakawa, Kosei; Ohira, Masaichi

    2018-07-01

    Inflammation has been widely recognized as a contributor to cancer progression and several inflammatory markers have been reported as associated with the clinical outcomes in patients with various types of cancer. Recently, a novel inflammatory marker, the systemic inflammatory score (SIS), which is based on a combination of the lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) and the serum albumin concentration has been reported as a useful prognostic marker. The aim of the present study was to assess the prognostic value of the SIS in patients with unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). The retrospective cohort study included 160 patients who underwent combination chemotherapy for unresectable mCRC between January 2008 and December 2016. The SIS was used to classify the patients into three groups based on their LMR and the serum albumin concentration. Patients with high-LMR and high serum albumin level were given a score of 0; patients with low-LMR or low serum albumin level were given a score of 1; patients with low-LMR and low serum albumin level were given a score of 2. There were significant differences in the overall survival among the three SIS groups and the SIS was an independent prognostic factor for the overall survival. Although the SIS was significantly associated with the overall survival rate even when using the original cut-off values, the SIS according to the new cut-off values had a more accurate prognostic value. The present study determined that the SIS was a useful biomarker for predicting the survival outcomes in patients with unresectable mCRC, although the optimum cut-off value of the SIS according to the patients' background needs to be examined in further studies.

  17. Prognostic value of baseline seric Syndecan-1 in initially unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer patients: a simple biological score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jary, Marine; Lecomte, Thierry; Bouché, Olivier; Kim, Stefano; Dobi, Erion; Queiroz, Lise; Ghiringhelli, Francois; Etienne, Hélène; Léger, Julie; Godet, Yann; Balland, Jérémy; Lakkis, Zaher; Adotevi, Olivier; Bonnetain, Franck; Borg, Christophe; Vernerey, Dewi

    2016-11-15

    In first-line metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), baseline prognostic factors allowing death risk and treatment strategy stratification are lacking. Syndecan-1 (CD138) soluble form was never described as a prognostic biomarker in mCRC. We investigated its additional prognostic value for overall survival (OS). mCRC patients with unresectable disease at diagnosis were treated with bevacizumab-based chemotherapy in two independent prospective clinical trials (development set: n = 126, validation set: n = 51, study NCT00489697 and study NCT00544011, respectively). Serums were collected at baseline for CD138 measurement. OS determinants were assessed and, based on the final multivariate model, a prognostic score was proposed. Two independent OS prognostic factors were identified: Lactate Dehydrogenase (LDH) high level (p = 0.0066) and log-CD138 high level (p = 0.0190). The determination of CD138 binary information (cutoff: 75 ng/mL) allowed the assessment of a biological prognostic score with CD138 and LDH values, identifying three risk groups for death (median OS= 38.9, 30.1 and 19.8 months for the low, intermediate and high risk groups, respectively; p value for OS, in mCRC patients. A simple biological scoring system is proposed including LDH and CD138 binary status values. © 2016 UICC.

  18. A new Leukemia Prognostic Scoring System for refractory/relapsed adult acute myelogeneous leukaemia patients: a GOELAMS study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevallier, P; Labopin, M; Turlure, P; Prebet, T; Pigneux, A; Hunault, M; Filanovsky, K; Cornillet-Lefebvre, P; Luquet, I; Lode, L; Richebourg, S; Blanchet, O; Gachard, N; Vey, N; Ifrah, N; Milpied, N; Harousseau, J-L; Bene, M-C; Mohty, M; Delaunay, J

    2011-06-01

    A simplified prognostic score is presented based on the multivariate analysis of 138 refractory/relapsed acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) patients (median age 55 years, range: 19-70) receiving a combination of intensive chemotherapy+Gemtuzumab as salvage regimen. Overall, 2-year event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) were 29±4% and 36±4%, respectively. Disease status (relapse Leukemia Prognostic Scoring System was then validated on an independent cohort of 111 refractory/relapsed AML patients. This new simplified prognostic score, using three clinical and biological parameters routinely applied, allow to discriminate around two third of the patients who should benefit from a salvage intensive regimen in the setting of refractory/relapsed AML patients. The other one third of the patients should receive investigational therapy.

  19. Prognostic discrimination based on the EUTOS long-term survival score within the International Registry for Chronic Myeloid Leukemia in children and adolescents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Millot, Frédéric; Guilhot, Joëlle; Suttorp, Meinolf

    2017-01-01

    The EUTOS Long-Term Survival score was tested in 350 children with chronic myeloid leukemia in first chronic phase treated with imatinib and registered in the International Registry for Childhood Chronic Myeloid Leukemia. With a median follow up of 3 years (range, 1 month to 6 years) progression ...

  20. Prognostic discrimination based on the EUTOS long-term survival score within the International Registry for Chronic Myeloid Leukemia in children and adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Millot, Frederic; Guilhot, Joelle; Suttorp, Meinolf; Gunes, Adalet Meral; Sedlacek, Petr; De Bont, Eveline; Li, Chi Kong; Kalwak, Krzysztof; Lausen, Birgitte; Culic, Srdjana; Dworzak, Michael; Kaiserova, Emilia; De Moerloose, Barbara; Roula, Farah; Biondi, Andrea; Baruchel, Andre

    2017-01-01

    The EUTOS Long-Term Survival score was tested in 350 children with chronic myeloid leukemia in first chronic phase treated with imatinib and registered in the International Registry for Childhood Chronic Myeloid Leukemia. With a median follow up of 3 years (range, 1 month to 6 years) progression

  1. A new prognostic score for AIDS-related lymphomas in the rituximab-era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barta, Stefan K.; Xue, Xiaonan; Wang, Dan; Lee, Jeannette Y.; Kaplan, Lawrence D.; Ribera, Josep-Maria; Oriol, Albert; Spina, Michele; Tirelli, Umberto; Boue, Francois; Wilson, Wyndham H.; Wyen, Christoph; Dunleavy, Kieron; Noy, Ariela; Sparano, Joseph A.

    2014-01-01

    While the International Prognostic Index is commonly used to predict outcomes in immunocompetent patients with aggressive B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphomas, HIV-infection is an important competing risk for death in patients with AIDS-related lymphomas. We investigated whether a newly created prognostic score (AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index) could better assess risk of death in patients with AIDS-related lymphomas. We randomly divided a dataset of 487 patients newly diagnosed with AIDS-related lymphomas and treated with rituximab-containing chemoimmunotherapy into a training (n=244) and validation (n=243) set. We examined the association of HIV-related and other known risk factors with overall survival in both sets independently. We defined a new score (AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index) by assigning weights to each significant predictor [age-adjusted International Prognostic Index, extranodal sites, HIV-score (composed of CD4 count, viral load, and prior history of AIDS)] with three risk categories similar to the age-adjusted International Prognostic Index (low, intermediate and high risk). We compared the prognostic value for overall survival between AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index and age-adjusted International Prognostic Index in the validation set and found that the AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index performed significantly better in predicting risk of death than the age-adjusted International Prognostic Index (P=0.004) and better discriminated risk of death between each risk category (P=0.015 vs. P=0.13). Twenty-eight percent of patients were defined as low risk by the ARL-IPI and had an estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) of 78% (52% intermediate risk, 5-year OS 60%; 20% high risk, 5-year OS 50%). PMID:25150257

  2. Acute imaging does not improve ASTRAL score's accuracy despite having a prognostic value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntaios, George; Papavasileiou, Vasileios; Faouzi, Mohamed; Vanacker, Peter; Wintermark, Max; Michel, Patrik

    2014-10-01

    The ASTRAL score was recently shown to reliably predict three-month functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. The study aims to investigate whether information from multimodal imaging increases ASTRAL score's accuracy. All patients registered in the ASTRAL registry until March 2011 were included. In multivariate logistic-regression analyses, we added covariates derived from parenchymal, vascular, and perfusion imaging to the 6-parameter model of the ASTRAL score. If a specific imaging covariate remained an independent predictor of three-month modified Rankin score>2, the area-under-the-curve (AUC) of this new model was calculated and compared with ASTRAL score's AUC. We also performed similar logistic regression analyses in arbitrarily chosen patient subgroups. When added to the ASTRAL score, the following covariates on admission computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging-based multimodal imaging were not significant predictors of outcome: any stroke-related acute lesion, any nonstroke-related lesions, chronic/subacute stroke, leukoaraiosis, significant arterial pathology in ischemic territory on computed tomography angiography/magnetic resonance angiography/Doppler, significant intracranial arterial pathology in ischemic territory, and focal hypoperfusion on perfusion-computed tomography. The Alberta Stroke Program Early CT score on plain imaging and any significant extracranial arterial pathology on computed tomography angiography/magnetic resonance angiography/Doppler were independent predictors of outcome (odds ratio: 0·93, 95% CI: 0·87-0·99 and odds ratio: 1·49, 95% CI: 1·08-2·05, respectively) but did not increase ASTRAL score's AUC (0·849 vs. 0·850, and 0·8563 vs. 0·8564, respectively). In exploratory analyses in subgroups of different prognosis, age or stroke severity, no covariate was found to increase ASTRAL score's AUC, either. The addition of information derived from multimodal imaging does not increase ASTRAL score

  3. A combined pulmonary function and emphysema score prognostic index for staging in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afroditi K Boutou

    Full Text Available Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD is characterized by high morbidity and mortality. Lung computed tomography parameters, individually or as part of a composite index, may provide more prognostic information than pulmonary function tests alone.To investigate the prognostic value of emphysema score and pulmonary artery measurements compared with lung function parameters in COPD and construct a prognostic index using a contingent staging approach.Predictors of mortality were assessed in COPD outpatients whose lung computed tomography, spirometry, lung volumes and gas transfer data were collected prospectively in a clinical database. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis models with bootstrap techniques were used.169 patients were included (59.8% male, 61.1 years old; Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second % predicted: 40.5±19.2. 20.1% died; mean survival was 115.4 months. Age (HR = 1.098, 95% Cl = 1.04-1.252 and emphysema score (HR = 1.034, 95% CI = 1.007-1.07 were the only independent predictors of mortality. Pulmonary artery dimensions were not associated with survival. An emphysema score of 55% was chosen as the optimal threshold and 30% and 65% as suboptimals. Where emphysema score was between 30% and 65% (intermediate risk the optimal lung volume threshold, a functional residual capacity of 210% predicted, was applied. This contingent staging approach separated patients with an intermediate risk based on emphysema score alone into high risk (Functional Residual Capacity ≥210% predicted or low risk (Functional Residual Capacity <210% predicted. This approach was more discriminatory for survival (HR = 3.123; 95% CI = 1.094-10.412 than either individual component alone.Although to an extent limited by the small sample size, this preliminary study indicates that the composite Emphysema score-Functional Residual Capacity index might provide a better separation of high and low risk patients

  4. A new prognostic scoring system for perforation peritonitis secondary to duodenal ulcers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomani, A.Z.; Qureshi, M.S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To identify prognostic factors for perforated duodenal ulcers and to devise and assess a new scoring system. Methods: The observational prospective study was conducted at the Mayo Hospital, Lahore in two phases: from March 2010 to September 2011; and from October 2011 to July 2012. It included patients with duodenal ulcer perforation who were observed for identifying factors predicting 30-day prognosis. Each of the predictive factor was given a score based on its severity to devise a new scoring system. Chi-square was used for univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis was done using forward stepwise regression. Accuracy of the new scoring system was calculated using receiver operating curve analysis and its validity was evaluated in the second phase of the study. Results: Predictors of poor prognosis included multiple gut perforations, size of largest perforation >0.5cm, amount of peritoneal fluid >1000ml, simple closure, development of complications, post-operative systemic septicaemia and winter/autumn season of presentation. Overall 30-day mortality rate was 32.3% (n=32) and morbidity rate was 21.2% (n=21). The mean score was higher in the ones with poor prognosis (p=0.001). Similarly, the mean score was greater in those with grave prognosis (p=0.001). The scoring system had an overall sensitivity of 85.12% and specificity of 80.67% and was favourably comparable to other scoring systems. Conclusion: The new scoring system is a useful tool in predicting 30-day prognosis for perforated duodenal ulcers in acid peptic disease. (author)

  5. Glasgow Prognostic Score is superior to ECOG PS as a prognostic factor in patients with gastric cancer with peritoneal seeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Shu-Qiang; Nie, Run-Cong; Chen, Yong-Ming; Qiu, Hai-Bo; Li, Xiao-Ping; Chen, Xiao-Jiang; Xu, Li-Pu; Yang, Li-Fang; Sun, Xiao-Wei; Li, Yuan-Fang; Zhou, Zhi-Wei; Chen, Shi; Chen, Ying-Bo

    2018-04-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) has been shown to be associated with survival rates in patients with advanced cancer. The present study aimed to compare the GPS with the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG PS) in patients with gastric cancer with peritoneal seeding. For the investigation, a total of 384 gastric patients with peritoneal metastasis were retrospectively analyzed. Patients with elevated C-reactive protein (CRP; >10 mg/l) and hypoalbuminemia (l) were assigned a score of 2. Patients were assigned a score of 1 if presenting with only one of these abnormalities, and a score of 0 if neither of these abnormalities were present. The clinicopathologic characteristics and clinical outcomes of patients with peritoneal seeding were analyzed. The results showed that the median overall survival (OS) of patients in the GPS 0 group was longer, compared with that in the GPS 1 and GPS 2 groups (15.50, vs. 10.07 and 7.97 months, respectively; PGPS 0 group was significantly longer, compared with that in the GPS 1 and GPS 2 groups, for the patients receiving palliative chemotherapy and patients without palliative chemotherapy. Multivariate survival analysis demonstrated that CA19-9, palliative gastrectomy, first-line chemotherapy and GPS were the prognostic factors predicting OS. In conclusion, the GPS was superior to the subjective assessment of ECOG PS as a prognostic factor in predicting the outcome of gastric cancer with peritoneal seeding.

  6. The Glasgow Prognostic Score Predicts Response to Chemotherapy in Patients with Metastatic Breast Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dexing; Duan, Li; Tu, Zhiquan; Yan, Fei; Zhang, Cuicui; Li, Xu; Cao, Yuzhu; Wen, Hongsheng

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer is one of the most common causes of cancer death in women worldwide. The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), a cumulative prognostic score based on C-reactive protein and albumin, indicates the presence of a systemic inflammatory response. The GPS has been adopted as a powerful prognostic tool for patients with various types of malignant tumors, including breast cancer. The aim of this study was to assess the value of the GPS in predicting the response and toxicity in breast cancer patients treated with chemotherapy. Patients with metastatic breast cancers in a progressive stage for consideration of chemotherapy were eligible. The clinical characteristics and demographics were recorded. The GPS was calculated before the onset of chemotherapy. Data on the response to chemotherapy and progression-free survival (PFS) were also collected. Objective tumor responses were evaluated according to Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST). Toxicities were graded according to National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (NCI-CTC) version 3.0 throughout therapy. In total, 106 breast cancer patients were recruited. The GPS was associated with the response rate (p = 0.05), the clinical benefit rate (p = 0.03), and PFS (p = 0.005). The GPS was the only independent predictor of PFS (p = 0.005). The GPS was significantly associated with neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, anorexia, nausea and vomiting, fatigue, and mucositis (p = 0.05-0.001). Our data demonstrate that GPS assessment is associated with poor clinical outcomes and severe chemotherapy-related toxicities in patients with metastatic breast cancer who have undergone chemotherapy, without any specific indication regarding the type of chemotherapy applied. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  7. Prognostic factors and a survival score for patients with metastatic spinal cord compression from colorectal cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rades, D.; Douglas, S.; Huttenlocher, S. [Luebeck Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Veninga, T. [Dr. Bernard Verbeeten Institute, Tilburg (Netherlands). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Bajrovic, A. [University Medical Center Eppendorf, Hamburg (Germany). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Rudat, V. [Saad Specialist Hospital Al-Khobar (Saudi Arabia). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Schild, S.E. [Mayo Clinic, Scottsdale, AZ (United States). Dept. of Radiation Oncology

    2012-12-15

    Background: This study aimed to identify independent prognostic factors and to create a survival score for patients with metastatic spinal cord compression (MSCC) from colorectal cancer (CRC). Patients and methods: Data from 121 patients irradiated for MSCC from CRC were retrospectively analyzed. Eleven potential prognostic factors were investigated including tumor type, age, gender, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status score (ECOG-PS), number of involved vertebrae, ambulatory status prior to radiotherapy (RT), other bone metastases, visceral metastases, interval from cancer diagnosis to RT of MSCC, time of developing motor deficits prior to RT, and the RT schedule. Results: On multivariate analysis, improved motor function was significantly associated with an ECOG-PS of 1-2 (p = 0.011) and a slower development of motor deficits (p < 0.001). Improved local control was significantly associated with absence of visceral metastases (p = 0.043) and longer-course RT (p = 0.008). Improved survival was significantly associated with an ECOG-PS of 1-2 (p < 0.001), ambulatory status (p < 0.001), absence of visceral metastases (p < 0.001), and a slower development of motor deficits (p = 0.047). These four prognostic factors were included in a survival score. The score for each factor was determined by dividing the 6-month survival rate by 10. The prognostic score represented the sum of the factor scores. Four prognostic groups were designed; the 6-month survival rates were 0% for 8-12 points, 26% for 13-18 points, 62% for 20-23 points, and 100% for 24-27 points (p < 0.001). Conclusion: This study identified several independent prognostic factors for treatment outcomes in patients irradiated for MSCC from CRC. The survival prognosis of these patients can be estimated with a new score. (orig.)

  8. Model-based Prognostics under Limited Sensing

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is crucial to providing reliable condition-based maintenance decisions. To obtain accurate predictions of component life, a variety of sensors are often...

  9. A prognostic scoring system for arm exercise stress testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yan; Xian, Hong; Chandiramani, Pooja; Bainter, Emily; Wan, Leping; Martin, Wade H

    2016-01-01

    Arm exercise stress testing may be an equivalent or better predictor of mortality outcome than pharmacological stress imaging for the ≥50% for patients unable to perform leg exercise. Thus, our objective was to develop an arm exercise ECG stress test scoring system, analogous to the Duke Treadmill Score, for predicting outcome in these individuals. In this retrospective observational cohort study, arm exercise ECG stress tests were performed in 443 consecutive veterans aged 64.1 (11.1) years. (mean (SD)) between 1997 and 2002. From multivariate Cox models, arm exercise scores were developed for prediction of 5-year and 12-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and 5-year cardiovascular mortality or myocardial infarction (MI). Arm exercise capacity in resting metabolic equivalents (METs), 1 min heart rate recovery (HRR) and ST segment depression ≥1 mm were the stress test variables independently associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality by step-wise Cox analysis (all pstatistic of 0.81 before and 0.88 after adjustment for significant demographic and clinical covariates. Arm exercise scores for the other outcome end points yielded C-statistic values of 0.77-0.79 before and 0.82-0.86 after adjustment for significant covariates versus 0.64-0.72 for best fit pharmacological myocardial perfusion imaging models in a cohort of 1730 veterans who were evaluated over the same time period. Arm exercise scores, analogous to the Duke Treadmill Score, have good power for prediction of mortality or MI in patients who cannot perform leg exercise.

  10. Generation and validation of a prognostic score to predict outcome after re-irradiation of recurrent glioma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Combs, Stephanie E.; Welzel, Thomas; Debus, Juergen [Univ. Hospital of Heidelberg, Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Heidelberg (Germany)], E-mail: Stephanie.combs@med.uni-heidelberg.de; Edler, Lutz; Rausch, Renate [German Cancer Research Center (dkfz), Dept. of Biostatistics, Heidelberg (Germany); Wick, Wolfgang [Univ. Hospital of Heidelberg, Dept. of Neurooncology, Heidelberg (Germany)

    2013-01-15

    Re-irradiation using high-precision radiation techniques has been established within the clinical routine for patients with recurrent gliomas. In the present work, we developed a practical prognostic score to predict survival outcome after re-irradiation. Patients and methods. Fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (FSRT) was applied in 233 patients. Primary histology included glioblastoma (n = 89; 38%), WHO Grade III gliomas (n = 52; 22%) and low-grade glioma (n = 92; 40%). FSRT was applied with a median dose of 36 Gy in 2 Gy single fractions. We evaluated survival after re-irradiation as well as progression-free survival after re-irradiation; prognostic factors analyzed included age, tumor volume at re-irradiation, histology, time between initial radiotherapy and re-irradiation, age and Karnofsky Performance Score. Results. Median survival after FSRT was 8 months for glioblastoma, 20 months for anaplastic gliomas, and 24 months for recurrent low-grade patients. The strongest prognostic factors significantly impacting survival after re-irradiation were histology (p <0.0001) and age (<50 vs. ={>=}50, p < 0.0001) at diagnosis and the time between initial radiotherapy and re-irradiation {<=}12 vs. >12 months (p < 0.0001). We generated a four-class prognostic score to distinguish patients with excellent (0 points), good (1 point), moderate (2 points) and poor (3-4 points) survival after re-irradiation. The difference in outcome was highly significant (p < 0.0001). Conclusion. We generated a practical prognostic score index based on three clinically relevant factors to predict the benefit of patients from re-irradiation. This score index can be helpful in patient counseling, and for the design of further clinical trials. However, individual treatment decisions may include other patient-related factors not directly influencing outcome.

  11. Generation and validation of a prognostic score to predict outcome after re-irradiation of recurrent glioma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Combs, Stephanie E.; Welzel, Thomas; Debus, Juergen; Edler, Lutz; Rausch, Renate; Wick, Wolfgang

    2013-01-01

    Re-irradiation using high-precision radiation techniques has been established within the clinical routine for patients with recurrent gliomas. In the present work, we developed a practical prognostic score to predict survival outcome after re-irradiation. Patients and methods. Fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (FSRT) was applied in 233 patients. Primary histology included glioblastoma (n = 89; 38%), WHO Grade III gliomas (n = 52; 22%) and low-grade glioma (n = 92; 40%). FSRT was applied with a median dose of 36 Gy in 2 Gy single fractions. We evaluated survival after re-irradiation as well as progression-free survival after re-irradiation; prognostic factors analyzed included age, tumor volume at re-irradiation, histology, time between initial radiotherapy and re-irradiation, age and Karnofsky Performance Score. Results. Median survival after FSRT was 8 months for glioblastoma, 20 months for anaplastic gliomas, and 24 months for recurrent low-grade patients. The strongest prognostic factors significantly impacting survival after re-irradiation were histology (p 12 months (p < 0.0001). We generated a four-class prognostic score to distinguish patients with excellent (0 points), good (1 point), moderate (2 points) and poor (3-4 points) survival after re-irradiation. The difference in outcome was highly significant (p < 0.0001). Conclusion. We generated a practical prognostic score index based on three clinically relevant factors to predict the benefit of patients from re-irradiation. This score index can be helpful in patient counseling, and for the design of further clinical trials. However, individual treatment decisions may include other patient-related factors not directly influencing outcome.

  12. Prognostic capabilities and agreement of three different scores in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hernando Pinzó-Redondo, Andrea Zarate-Vergara, Katherine Barrios-Redondo, Cesar Munoza, Ángel Guzmán, Dorys Morales-Payares, Nelson ... The sensitivity and specificity of each score value in diagnosing appendicitis were estimated through the area under the receiver operative characteristics curve (AUC).

  13. Prognostic validation of a 17-segment score derived from a 20-segment score for myocardial perfusion SPECT interpretation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Daniel S; Abidov, Aiden; Kang, Xingping; Hayes, Sean W; Friedman, John D; Sciammarella, Maria G; Cohen, Ishac; Gerlach, James; Waechter, Parker B; Germano, Guido; Hachamovitch, Rory

    2004-01-01

    Recently, a 17-segment model of the left ventricle has been recommended as an optimally weighted approach for interpreting myocardial perfusion single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). Methods to convert databases from previous 20- to new 17-segment data and criteria for abnormality for the 17-segment scores are needed. Initially, for derivation of the conversion algorithm, 65 patients were studied (algorithm population) (pilot group, n = 28; validation group, n = 37). Three conversion algorithms were derived: algorithm 1, which used mid, distal, and apical scores; algorithm 2, which used distal and apical scores alone; and algorithm 3, which used maximal scores of the distal septal, lateral, and apical segments in the 20-segment model for 3 corresponding segments of the 17-segment model. The prognosis population comprised 16,020 consecutive patients (mean age, 65 +/- 12 years; 41% women) who had exercise or vasodilator stress technetium 99m sestamibi myocardial perfusion SPECT and were followed up for 2.1 +/- 0.8 years. In this population, 17-segment scores were derived from 20-segment scores by use of algorithm 2, which demonstrated the best agreement with expert 17-segment reading in the algorithm population. The prognostic value of the 20- and 17-segment scores was compared by converting the respective summed scores into percent myocardium abnormal. Conversion algorithm 2 was found to be highly concordant with expert visual analysis by the 17-segment model (r = 0.982; kappa = 0.866) in the algorithm population. In the prognosis population, 456 cardiac deaths occurred during follow-up. When the conversion algorithm was applied, extent and severity of perfusion defects were nearly identical by 20- and derived 17-segment scores. The receiver operating characteristic curve areas by 20- and 17-segment perfusion scores were identical for predicting cardiac death (both 0.77 +/- 0.02, P = not significant). The optimal prognostic cutoff value for either 20

  14. Comparison of Glasgow prognostic score and prognostic index in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Ai-Gui; Chen, Hong-Lin; Lu, Hui-Yu

    2015-03-01

    Previous studies have shown that Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) and prognostic index (PI) are also powerful prognostic tool for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value between GPS and PI. We enrolled consecutive patients with advanced NSCLC in this prospective cohort. GPS and PI were calculated before the onset of chemotherapy. The prognosis outcomes included 1-, 3-, and 5-year progression-free survival and overall survival (OS). The performance of two scores in predicting prognosis was analyzed regarding discrimination and calibration. 138 patients were included in the study. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for GPS predicting 1-year DFS was 0.62 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.68, P statistic showed good fit of the predicted 1-year DFS to the actual 1-year DFS by GPS (χ(2) = 4.326, P = 0.462), while no fit was found between the predicted 1-year DFS and the actual 1-year DFS by PI (χ(2) = 15.234, P = 0.091). Similar results of calibration power were found for predicting 3-year DFS, 5-year DFS, 1-year OS, 3-year OS, and 5-year OS by GPS and PI. GPS is more accurate than PI in predicting prognosis for patients with advanced NSCLC. GPS can be used as a useful and simple tool for predicting prognosis in patients with NSCLC. However, GPS only can be used for preliminary assessment because of low predicting accuracy.

  15. Prognostic Utility of Cell Cycle Progression Score in Men With Prostate Cancer After Primary External Beam Radiation Therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freedland, Stephen J., E-mail: steve.freedland@duke.edu [Department of Surgery, Durham VA Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Department of Surgery (Urology), Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Department of Pathology, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Gerber, Leah [Department of Surgery, Durham VA Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Department of Surgery (Urology), Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Department of Pathology, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Reid, Julia; Welbourn, William; Tikishvili, Eliso; Park, Jimmy; Younus, Adib; Gutin, Alexander; Sangale, Zaina; Lanchbury, Jerry S. [Myriad Genetics, Inc, Salt Lake City, Utah (United States); Salama, Joseph K. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Durham VA Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Stone, Steven [Myriad Genetics, Inc, Salt Lake City, Utah (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the prognostic utility of the cell cycle progression (CCP) score, a RNA signature based on the average expression level of 31 CCP genes, for predicting biochemical recurrence (BCR) in men with prostate cancer treated with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) as their primary curative therapy. Methods and Materials: The CCP score was derived retrospectively from diagnostic biopsy specimens of men diagnosed with prostate cancer from 1991 to 2006 (n=141). All patients were treated with definitive EBRT; approximately half of the cohort was African American. Outcome was time from EBRT to BCR using the Phoenix definition. Median follow-up for patients without BCR was 4.8 years. Association with outcome was evaluated by Cox proportional hazards survival analysis and likelihood ratio tests. Results: Of 141 patients, 19 (13%) had BCR. The median CCP score for patient samples was 0.12. In univariable analysis, CCP score significantly predicted BCR (P=.0017). The hazard ratio for BCR was 2.55 for 1-unit increase in CCP score (equivalent to a doubling of gene expression). In a multivariable analysis that included Gleason score, prostate-specific antigen, percent positive cores, and androgen deprivation therapy, the hazard ratio for CCP changed only marginally and remained significant (P=.034), indicating that CCP provides prognostic information that is not provided by standard clinical parameters. With 10-year censoring, the CCP score was associated with prostate cancer-specific mortality (P=.013). There was no evidence for interaction between CCP and any clinical variable, including ethnicity. Conclusions: Among men treated with EBRT, the CCP score significantly predicted outcome and provided greater prognostic information than was available with clinical parameters. If validated in a larger cohort, CCP score could identify high-risk men undergoing EBRT who may need more aggressive therapy.

  16. Prognostic Utility of Cell Cycle Progression Score in Men With Prostate Cancer After Primary External Beam Radiation Therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freedland, Stephen J.; Gerber, Leah; Reid, Julia; Welbourn, William; Tikishvili, Eliso; Park, Jimmy; Younus, Adib; Gutin, Alexander; Sangale, Zaina; Lanchbury, Jerry S.; Salama, Joseph K.; Stone, Steven

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the prognostic utility of the cell cycle progression (CCP) score, a RNA signature based on the average expression level of 31 CCP genes, for predicting biochemical recurrence (BCR) in men with prostate cancer treated with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) as their primary curative therapy. Methods and Materials: The CCP score was derived retrospectively from diagnostic biopsy specimens of men diagnosed with prostate cancer from 1991 to 2006 (n=141). All patients were treated with definitive EBRT; approximately half of the cohort was African American. Outcome was time from EBRT to BCR using the Phoenix definition. Median follow-up for patients without BCR was 4.8 years. Association with outcome was evaluated by Cox proportional hazards survival analysis and likelihood ratio tests. Results: Of 141 patients, 19 (13%) had BCR. The median CCP score for patient samples was 0.12. In univariable analysis, CCP score significantly predicted BCR (P=.0017). The hazard ratio for BCR was 2.55 for 1-unit increase in CCP score (equivalent to a doubling of gene expression). In a multivariable analysis that included Gleason score, prostate-specific antigen, percent positive cores, and androgen deprivation therapy, the hazard ratio for CCP changed only marginally and remained significant (P=.034), indicating that CCP provides prognostic information that is not provided by standard clinical parameters. With 10-year censoring, the CCP score was associated with prostate cancer-specific mortality (P=.013). There was no evidence for interaction between CCP and any clinical variable, including ethnicity. Conclusions: Among men treated with EBRT, the CCP score significantly predicted outcome and provided greater prognostic information than was available with clinical parameters. If validated in a larger cohort, CCP score could identify high-risk men undergoing EBRT who may need more aggressive therapy

  17. Outcome prediction in gastroschisis - The gastroschisis prognostic score (GPS) revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puligandla, Pramod S; Baird, Robert; Skarsgard, Eric D; Emil, Sherif; Laberge, Jean-Martin

    2017-05-01

    The GPS enables risk stratification for gastroschisis and helps discriminate low from high morbidity groups. The purpose of this study was to revalidate GPS's characterization of a high morbidity group and to quantify relationships between the GPS and outcomes. With REB approval, complete survivor data from a national gastroschisis registry was collected. GPS bowel injury scoring was revalidated excluding the initial inception/validation cohorts (>2011). Length of stay (LOS), 1st enteral feed days (dFPO), TPN days (dTPN), and aggregate complications (COMP) were compared between low and high morbidity risk groups. Mathematical relationships between outcomes and integer increases in GPS were explored using the entire cohort (2005-present). Median (range) LOS, dPO, and dTPN for the entire cohort (n=849) was 36 (26,62), 13 (9,18), and 27 (20,46) days, respectively. High-risk patients (GPS≥2; n=80) experienced significantly worse outcomes than low risk patients (n=263). Each integer increase in GPS was associated with increases in LOS and dTPN by 16.9 and 12.7days, respectively (pGPS effectively discriminates low from high morbidity risk groups. Within the high risk group, integer increases in GPS produce quantitatively differentiated outcomes which may guide initial counseling and resource allocation. IIb. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. New prognostic factors and scoring system for patients with skeletal metastasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katagiri, Hirohisa; Okada, Rieko; Takagi, Tatsuya; Takahashi, Mitsuru; Murata, Hideki; Harada, Hideyuki; Nishimura, Tetsuo; Asakura, Hirofumi; Ogawa, Hirofumi

    2014-10-01

    The aim of this study was to update a previous scoring system for patients with skeletal metastases, that was proposed by Katagiri et al. in 2005, by introducing a new factor (laboratory data) and analyzing a new patient cohort. Between January 2005 and January 2008, we treated 808 patients with symptomatic skeletal metastases. They were prospectively registered regardless of their treatments, and the last follow-up evaluation was performed in 2012. There were 441 male and 367 female patients with a median age of 64 years. Of these patients, 749 were treated nonsurgically while the remaining 59 underwent surgery for skeletal metastasis. A multivariate analysis was conducted using the Cox proportional hazards model. We identified six significant prognostic factors for survival, namely, the primary lesion, visceral or cerebral metastases, abnormal laboratory data, poor performance status, previous chemotherapy, and multiple skeletal metastases. The first three factors had a larger impact than the remaining three. The prognostic score was calculated by adding together all the scores for individual factors. With a prognostic score of ≥7, the survival rate was 27% at 6 months, and only 6% at 1 year. In contrast, patients with a prognostic score of ≤3 had a survival rate of 91% at 1 year, and 78% at 2 years. Comparing the revised system with the previous one, there was a significantly lower number of wrongly predicted patients using the revised system. This revised scoring system was able to predict the survival rates of patients with skeletal metastases more accurately than the previous system and may be useful for selecting an optimal treatment. © 2014 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Matching score based face recognition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boom, B.J.; Beumer, G.M.; Spreeuwers, Lieuwe Jan; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.

    2006-01-01

    Accurate face registration is of vital importance to the performance of a face recognition algorithm. We propose a new method: matching score based face registration, which searches for optimal alignment by maximizing the matching score output of a classifier as a function of the different

  20. Development and validation of a prognostic scoring system for patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Such, Esperanza; Germing, Ulrich; Malcovati, Luca; Cervera, José; Kuendgen, Andrea; Della Porta, Matteo G; Nomdedeu, Benet; Arenillas, Leonor; Luño, Elisa; Xicoy, Blanca; Amigo, Mari L; Valcarcel, David; Nachtkamp, Kathrin; Ambaglio, Ilaria; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Lorenzo, Ignacio; Cazzola, Mario; Sanz, Guillermo

    2013-04-11

    The natural course of chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) is highly variable but a widely accepted prognostic scoring system for patients with CMML is not available. The main aim of this study was to develop a new CMML-specific prognostic scoring system (CPSS) in a large series of 558 patients with CMML (training cohort, Spanish Group of Myelodysplastic Syndromes) and to validate it in an independent series of 274 patients (validation cohort, Heinrich Heine University Hospital, Düsseldorf, Germany, and San Matteo Hospital, Pavia, Italy). The most relevant variables for overall survival (OS) and evolution to acute myeloblastic leukemia (AML) were FAB and WHO CMML subtypes, CMML-specific cytogenetic risk classification, and red blood cell (RBC) transfusion dependency. CPSS was able to segregate patients into 4 clearly different risk groups for OS (P < .001) and risk of AML evolution (P < .001) and its predictive capability was confirmed in the validation cohort. An alternative CPSS with hemoglobin instead of RBC transfusion dependency offered almost identical prognostic capability. This study confirms the prognostic impact of FAB and WHO subtypes, recognizes the importance of RBC transfusion dependency and cytogenetics, and offers a simple and powerful CPSS for accurately assessing prognosis and planning therapy in patients with CMML.

  1. [Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 2. Short-term prognostic scores for acute exacerbations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junod, Alain F

    2014-01-22

    The chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or COPD is a slowly progressive disease whose course is frequently the subject of acute episodes, of variable severity, although, in general, reversible, called acute exacerbations. In the past five years (between 2008 and 2013), seven prognostic scores have been published to try to assess the short-term risk of these acute exacerbations. Their components and characteristics are analysed and commented upon. An Internet program with a detailed compilation of the main features of these scores (www.medhyg.ch/scoredoc) supplements this review.

  2. Nailfold capillaroscopy for day-to-day clinical use: construction of a simple scoring modality as a clinical prognostic index for digital trophic lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Vanessa; De Keyser, Filip; Pizzorni, Carmen; Van Praet, Jens T; Decuman, Saskia; Sulli, Alberto; Deschepper, Ellen; Cutolo, Maurizio

    2011-01-01

    Construction of a simple nailfold videocapillaroscopic (NVC) scoring modality as a prognostic index for digital trophic lesions for day-to-day clinical use. An association with a single simple (semi)-quantitatively scored NVC parameter, mean score of capillary loss, was explored in 71 consecutive patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc), and reliable reduction in the number of investigated fields (F32-F16-F8-F4). The cut-off value of the prognostic index (mean score of capillary loss calculated over a reduced number of fields) for present/future digital trophic lesions was selected by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis. Reduction in the number of fields for mean score of capillary loss was reliable from F32 to F8 (intraclass correlation coefficient of F16/F32: 0.97; F8/F32: 0.90). Based on ROC analysis, a prognostic index (mean score of capillary loss as calculated over F8) with a cut-off value of 1.67 is proposed. This value has a sensitivity of 72.22/70.00, specificity of 70.59/69.77, positive likelihood ratio of 2.46/2.32 and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.39/0.43 for present/future digital trophic lesions. A simple prognostic index for digital trophic lesions for daily use in SSc clinics is proposed, limited to the mean score of capillary loss as calculated over eight fields (8 fingers, 1 field per finger).

  3. A Model-Based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain...

  4. A Model-based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain...

  5. Prognostic impact of controlling nutritional status score in resected lung squamous cell carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyokawa, Gouji; Kozuma, Yuka; Matsubara, Taichi; Haratake, Naoki; Takamori, Shinkichi; Akamine, Takaki; Takada, Kazuki; Katsura, Masakazu; Shimokawa, Mototsugu; Shoji, Fumihiro; Okamoto, Tatsuro; Maehara, Yoshihiko

    2017-09-01

    The preoperative immune-nutritional status has been shown to predict the postoperative prognosis in various types of cancer; however, the prognostic significance of the controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score in resected lung squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) has yet to be elucidated. A total of 108 patients with resected lung SCC were analyzed for their clinicopathological factors, including the CONUT score, which can be calculated from the serum albumin, total cholesterol, and total peripheral lymphocyte count. The patients were divided into two groups: CONUT low (0 or 1) or high (≥2). Among 108 patients, 76 (70.4%) were CONUT low, while 32 (29.6%) were CONUT high. No significant association between the CONUT score and the clinicopathological factors was found. Patients with CONUT high exhibited significantly shorter disease-free and overall survivals (DFS and OS) than those with CONUT low (P=0.016 and P=0.006, respectively). Multivariate analyses showed that the CONUT score [hazard ratio (HR): 1.902, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.045-3.373, P=0.036], age (HR: 2.286, 95% CI: 1.246-4.304, P=0.007), pathological stage (HR: 2.527, 95% CI: 1.391-4.644, P=0.002), and lymphatic invasion (HR: 2.321, 95% CI: 1.110-4.493, P=0.027) were independent prognostic factors for the DFS. Furthermore, in a multivariate analysis, the CONUT score (HR: 1.909, 95% CI: 0.902-3.860, P=0.081), age (HR: 2.455, 95% CI: 1.208-5.178, P=0.013), pathological stage (HR: 2.488, 95% CI: 1.201-5.306, P=0.014), and lymphatic invasion (HR: 3.409, 95% CI: 1.532-7.240, P=0.004) were shown to be independent prognostic factors for the OS. The current study showed that the CONUT score was an independent prognostic factor for the DFS and OS in patients with resected lung SCC.

  6. Does C-reactive Protein Add Prognostic Value to GRACE Score in Acute Coronary Syndromes?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Correia, Luis Cláudio Lemos, E-mail: lccorreia@terra.com.br; Vasconcelos, Isis; Garcia, Guilherme; Kalil, Felipe; Ferreira, Felipe; Silva, André; Oliveira, Ruan; Carvalhal, Manuela; Freitas, Caio; Noya-Rabelo, Márcia Maria [Escola Bahiana de Medicina e Saúde Pública, Salvador, BA (Brazil); Hospital São Rafael, Salvador, BA (Brazil)

    2014-05-15

    The incremental prognostic value of plasma levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) in relation to GRACE score has not been established in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) with non-ST segment elevation. To test the hypothesis that CRP measurements at admission increases the prognostic value of GRACE score in patients with ACS. A total of 290 subjects, consecutively admitted for ACS, with plasma material obtained upon admission CRP measurement using a high-sensitivity method (nephelometry) were studied. Cardiovascular outcomes during hospitalization were defined by the combination of death, nonfatal myocardial infarction or nonfatal refractory angina. The incidence of cardiovascular events during hospitalization was 15% (18 deaths, 11 myocardial infarctions, 13 angina episodes) with CRP showing C-statistics of 0.60 (95% CI = 0.51-0.70, p = 0.034) in predicting these outcomes. After adjustment for the GRACE score, elevated CRP (defined as the best cutoff point) tended to be associated with hospital events (OR = 1.89, 95% CI = 0.92 to 3.88, p = 0.08). However, the addition of the variable elevated CRP in the GRACE model did not result in significant increase in C-statistics, which ranged from 0.705 to 0.718 (p = 0.46). Similarly, there was no significant reclassification of risk with the addition of CRP in the predictor model (net reclassification = 5.7 %, p = 0.15). Although CRP is associated with hospital outcomes, this inflammatory marker does not increase the prognostic value of the GRACE score.

  7. Does C-reactive Protein Add Prognostic Value to GRACE Score in Acute Coronary Syndromes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correia, Luis Cláudio Lemos; Vasconcelos, Isis; Garcia, Guilherme; Kalil, Felipe; Ferreira, Felipe; Silva, André; Oliveira, Ruan; Carvalhal, Manuela; Freitas, Caio; Noya-Rabelo, Márcia Maria

    2014-01-01

    The incremental prognostic value of plasma levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) in relation to GRACE score has not been established in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) with non-ST segment elevation. To test the hypothesis that CRP measurements at admission increases the prognostic value of GRACE score in patients with ACS. A total of 290 subjects, consecutively admitted for ACS, with plasma material obtained upon admission CRP measurement using a high-sensitivity method (nephelometry) were studied. Cardiovascular outcomes during hospitalization were defined by the combination of death, nonfatal myocardial infarction or nonfatal refractory angina. The incidence of cardiovascular events during hospitalization was 15% (18 deaths, 11 myocardial infarctions, 13 angina episodes) with CRP showing C-statistics of 0.60 (95% CI = 0.51-0.70, p = 0.034) in predicting these outcomes. After adjustment for the GRACE score, elevated CRP (defined as the best cutoff point) tended to be associated with hospital events (OR = 1.89, 95% CI = 0.92 to 3.88, p = 0.08). However, the addition of the variable elevated CRP in the GRACE model did not result in significant increase in C-statistics, which ranged from 0.705 to 0.718 (p = 0.46). Similarly, there was no significant reclassification of risk with the addition of CRP in the predictor model (net reclassification = 5.7 %, p = 0.15). Although CRP is associated with hospital outcomes, this inflammatory marker does not increase the prognostic value of the GRACE score

  8. Validation of a prognostic score for hidden cancer in unprovoked venous thromboembolism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otero, Remedios; Jimenez, David; Praena-Fernandez, Juan Manuel; Font, Carme; Falga, Conxita; Soler, Silvia; Riesco, David; Verhamme, Peter; Monreal, Manuel

    2018-01-01

    The usefulness of a diagnostic workup for occult cancer in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) is controversial. We used the RIETE (Registro Informatizado Enfermedad Trombo Embólica) database to perform a nested case-control study to validate a prognostic score that identifies patients with unprovoked VTE at increased risk for cancer. We dichotomized patients as having low- (≤2 points) or high (≥3 points) risk for cancer, and tried to validate the score at 12 and 24 months. From January 2014 to October 2016, 11,695 VTE patients were recruited. Of these, 1,360 with unprovoked VTE (11.6%) were eligible for the study. At 12 months, 52 patients (3.8%; 95%CI: 2.9–5%) were diagnosed with cancer. Among 905 patients (67%) scoring ≤2 points, 22 (2.4%) had cancer. Among 455 scoring ≥3 points, 30 (6.6%) had cancer (hazard ratio 2.8; 95%CI 1.6–5; p<0.01). C-statistic was 0.63 (95%CI 0.55–0.71). At 24 months, 58 patients (4.3%; 95%CI: 3.3–5.5%) were diagnosed with cancer. Among 905 patients scoring ≤2 points, 26 (2.9%) had cancer. Among 455 patients scoring ≥3 points, 32 (7%) had cancer (hazard ratio 2.6; 95%CI 1.5–4.3; p<0.01). C-statistic was 0.61 (95%CI, 0.54–0.69). We validated our prognostic score at 12 and 24 months, although prospective cohort validation is needed. This may help to identify patients for whom more extensive screening workup may be required. PMID:29558509

  9. Nutritional prognostic scores in patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma treated by percutaneous transhepatic biliary stenting combined with 125I seed intracavitary irradiation: A retrospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Peiyuan; Pang, Qing; Wang, Yong; Qian, Zhen; Hu, Xiaosi; Wang, Wei; Li, Zongkuang; Zhou, Lei; Man, Zhongran; Yang, Song; Jin, Hao; Liu, Huichun

    2018-06-01

    We mainly aimed to preliminarily explore the prognostic values of nutrition-based prognostic scores in patients with advanced hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HCCA).We retrospectively analyzed 73 cases of HCCA, who underwent percutaneous transhepatic biliary stenting (PTBS) combined with I seed intracavitary irradiation from November 2012 to April 2017 in our department. The postoperative changes of total bilirubin (TBIL), direct bilirubin (DBIL), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and albumin (ALB) were observed. The preoperative clinical data were collected to calculate the nutrition-based scores, including controlling nutritional status (CONUT), C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR), and prognostic nutritional index (PNI). Kaplan-Meier curve and Cox regression model were used for overall survival (OS) analyses.The serum levels of TBIL, DBIL, ALT, AST, and ALP significantly reduced, and ALB significantly increased at 1 month and 3 months postoperatively. The median survival time of the cohort was 12 months and the 1-year survival rate was 53.1%. Univariate analysis revealed that the statistically significant factors related to OS were CA19-9, TBIL, ALB, CONUT, and PNI. Multivariate analysis further identified CA19-9, CONUT, and PNI as independent prognostic factors.Nutrition-based prognostic scores, CONUT and PNI in particular, can be used as predictors of survival in unresectable HCCA.

  10. Performance of four ischemic stroke prognostic scores in a Brazilian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuster, Gustavo W; Dutra, Lívia A; Brasil, Israel P; Pacheco, Evelyn P; Arruda, Márcio J C; Volcov, Cristiane; Domingues, Renan B

    2016-02-01

    Ischemic stroke (IS) prognostic scales may help clinicians in their clinical decisions. This study aimed to assess the performance of four IS prognostic scales in a Brazilian population. We evaluated data of IS patients admitted at Hospital Paulistano, a Joint Commission International certified primary stroke center. In-hospital mortality and modified Rankin score at discharge were defined as the outcome measures. The performance of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), Stroke Prognostication Using Age and NIHSS (SPAN-100), Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL), and Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events (THRIVE) were compared. Two hundred six patients with a mean ± SD age of 67.58 ± 15.5 years, being 55.3% male, were included. The four scales were significantly and independently associated functional outcome. Only THRIVE was associated with in-hospital mortality. With area under the curve THRIVE and NIHSS were the scales with better performance for functional outcome and THRIVE had the best performance for mortality. THRIVE showed the best performance among the four scales, being the only associated with in-hospital mortality.

  11. Performance of four ischemic stroke prognostic scores in a Brazilian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo W. Kuster

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective Ischemic stroke (IS prognostic scales may help clinicians in their clinical decisions. This study aimed to assess the performance of four IS prognostic scales in a Brazilian population. Method We evaluated data of IS patients admitted at Hospital Paulistano, a Joint Commission International certified primary stroke center. In-hospital mortality and modified Rankin score at discharge were defined as the outcome measures. The performance of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS, Stroke Prognostication Using Age and NIHSS (SPAN-100, Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL, and Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events (THRIVE were compared. Results Two hundred six patients with a mean ± SD age of 67.58 ± 15.5 years, being 55.3% male, were included. The four scales were significantly and independently associated functional outcome. Only THRIVE was associated with in-hospital mortality. With area under the curve THRIVE and NIHSS were the scales with better performance for functional outcome and THRIVE had the best performance for mortality. Conclusion THRIVE showed the best performance among the four scales, being the only associated with in-hospital mortality.

  12. Modified poisoning severity score for early prognostic evaluation in acute paraquat poisoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng-lin SONG

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective To study the applied value of modified poisoning severity score (PSS for early prognostic evaluation in acute paraquat poisoning. Methods Thirty-seven patients with acute paraquat poisoning from June 2013 to June 2016 were enrolled. The PSS score, the modified PSS score, the acute physiology and the chronic health status Ⅱ score (APACHE Ⅱ of the patients were calculated. The relationship between modified PSS and APACHE Ⅱ was analyzed. Also the factors that affect outcome were analyzed by logistic regression analysis. The work characteristic curve (ROC curve of the PSS, the modified PSS and the APECH Ⅱ were drawn and compared. Results There was a positive correlation between the risk of death and admission time, poisonous dose, the concentration of urine paraquat, and white blood cell count (P<0.05. There was a significant correlation between the modified PSS and the APACHE Ⅱ(P<0.0001. The immediate PSS score, the modified PSS score, and the APACHE Ⅱ score were significant for the prognosis of patients with acute paraquat poisoning. The area under the curve (AUC was in turn 0.774, 0.788, 0.799. Among them, the best bound of the modified PSS score was 6.5 (when the score is greater than 6.5, the risk of death is higher. Further comparison of the area under the three curves showed that there was no significant difference in the area under the ROC curve between the three scores in predicting the prognosis of death [P=0.7633(PSS-DPSS, P=0.7791(PSS-APACHE Ⅱ, P=0.8918(DPSS-APACHE Ⅱ]. Conclusion Modified PSS is helpful in early predicting the prognosis of acute paraquat poisoning. DOI: 10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.2018.04.13

  13. Increased Prognostic Value of Query Amyloid Late Enhancement Score in Light-Chain Cardiac Amyloidosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Ke; Sun, Jiayu; Han, Yuchi; Liu, Hong; Yang, Dan; Li, Weihao; Wang, Jie; Cheng, Wei; Zhang, Qing; Zeng, Zhi; Chen, Yucheng

    2018-02-23

    Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) pattern is a powerful imaging biomarker for prognosis of cardiac amyloidosis. It is unknown if the query amyloid late enhancement (QALE) score in light-chain (AL) amyloidosis could provide increased prognostic value compared with LGE pattern.Methods and Results:Seventy-eight consecutive patients with AL amyloidosis underwent contrast-enhanced cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging. Patients with cardiac involvement were grouped by LGE pattern and analyzed using QALE score. Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to identify the optimal cut-off for QALE score in predicting all-cause mortality. Survival of these patients was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox regression. During a median follow-up of 34 months, 53 of 78 patients died. The optimal cut-off for QALE score to predict mortality at 12-month follow-up was 9.0. On multivariate Cox analysis, QALE score ≥9 (HR, 5.997; 95% CI: 2.665-13.497; Pvalue in AL cardiac amyloidosis. QALE score ≥9 has added value to differentiate prognosis in AL amyloidosis patients with a subendocardial LGE pattern.

  14. A Prognostic Scoring Tool for Cesarean Organ/Space Surgical Site Infections: Derivation and Internal Validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assawapalanggool, Srisuda; Kasatpibal, Nongyao; Sirichotiyakul, Supatra; Arora, Rajin; Suntornlimsiri, Watcharin

    Organ/space surgical site infections (SSIs) are serious complications after cesarean delivery. However, no scoring tool to predict these complications has yet been developed. This study sought to develop and validate a prognostic scoring tool for cesarean organ/space SSIs. Data for case and non-case of cesarean organ/space SSI between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2012 from a tertiary care hospital in Thailand were analyzed. Stepwise multivariable logistic regression was used to select the best predictor combination and their coefficients were transformed to a risk scoring tool. The likelihood ratio of positive for each risk category and the area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves were analyzed on total scores. Internal validation using bootstrap re-sampling was tested for reproducibility. The predictors of 243 organ/space SSIs from 4,988 eligible cesarean delivery cases comprised the presence of foul-smelling amniotic fluid (four points), vaginal examination five or more times before incision (two points), wound class III or greater (two points), being referred from local setting (two points), hemoglobin less than 11 g/dL (one point), and ethnic minorities (one point). The likelihood ratio of cesarean organ/space SSIs with 95% confidence interval among low (total score of 0-1 point), medium (total score of 2-5 points), and high risk (total score of ≥6 points) categories were 0.11 (0.07-0.19), 1.03 (0.89-1.18), and 13.25 (10.87-16.14), respectively. Both AUROCs of the derivation and validation data were comparable (87.57% versus 86.08%; p = 0.418). This scoring tool showed a high predictive ability regarding cesarean organ/space SSIs on the derivation data and reproducibility was demonstrated on internal validation. It could assist practitioners prioritize patient care and management depending on risk category and decrease SSI rates in cesarean deliveries.

  15. Reirradiation in progressive high-grade gliomas: outcome, role of concurrent chemotherapy, prognostic factors and validation of a new prognostic score with an independent patient cohort

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scholtyssek, Felix; Kortmann, Rolf-Dieter; Müller, Klaus; Zwiener, Isabella; Schlamann, Annika; Seidel, Clemens; Meixensberger, Jürgen; Bauer, Manfred; Hoffmann, Karl-Titus; Combs, Stephanie E; Bueren, André O von

    2013-01-01

    First, to evaluate outcome, the benefit of concurrent chemotherapy and prognostic factors in a cohort of sixty-four high-grade glioma patients who underwent a second course of radiation therapy at progression. Second, to validate a new prognostic score for overall survival after reirradiation of progressive gliomas with an independent patient cohort. All patients underwent fractionated reirradiation with a median physical dose of 36 Gy. Median planned target volume was 110.4 ml. Thirty-six patients received concurrent chemotherapy consisting in 24/36 cases (67%) of carboplatin and etoposide and in 12/36 cases (33%) of temozolomide. We used the Kaplan Meier method, log rank test and proportional hazards regression analysis for statistical assessment. Median overall survival from the start of reirradiation was 7.7 ± 0.7 months. Overall survival rates at 6 and 12 months were 60 ± 6% and 24 ± 6%, respectively. Despite relatively large target volumes we did not observe any major acute toxicity. Concurrent chemotherapy did not appear to improve outcome. In contrast, female gender, young age, WHO grade III histology, favorable Karnofsky performance score and complete resection of the tumor prior to reirradiation were identified as positive prognostic factors for overall survival. We finally validated a recent suggestion for a prognostic score with our independent but small patient cohort. Our preliminary findings suggest that its ability to discriminate between different prognostic groups is limited. Outcome of our patients was comparable to previous studies. Even in case of large target volumes reirradiation seems to be feasible without observing major toxicity. The benefit of concurrent chemotherapy is still elusive. A reassessment of the prognostic score, tested in this study, using a larger patient cohort is needed

  16. PREDICTING PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF OCULAR TRAUMA SCORE (OTS IN AN OPEN GLOBE INJURY IN TERTIARY EYE CARE HOSPITAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahul

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available AIM : To evaluate the prognostic value of OTS in open globe injuries. MATERIAL METHOD : Retrospective analysis of 77 eyes with open globe injuries was done from 01/07/2013 to 31/12/2014. Patients were assigned raw score sum based on initial V/A, and ocular findings then classified into 5 categories for predicting final visual outcome based on ocular Trauma score (OTS. RESULT : We estimated final V/A in 77 cases of open globe injuries (64.93% had raw sc ore between 65.91 (category 3, 4 Six months after the injury, 42.85% patients of categories 1 (raw score 0 - 44 achieved V/A of PL/HM as compared to 17% in OTS study. 16 patients with raw compared to OTS study. We reported comparable visual outcome with OT S study except in category 1 & 2. CONCLUSION: OTS score is valuable in triage, patient counseling and decision making for the management of ocular trauma. We recommend that OTS should be used routinely for open globe injuries as it is a simple guide

  17. Prognostics

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    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics has received considerable attention recently as an emerging sub-discipline within SHM. Prognosis is here strictly defined as “predicting the time at...

  18. Prognostics 101: A tutorial for particle filter-based prognostics algorithm using Matlab

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, Dawn; Choi, Joo-Ho; Kim, Nam Ho

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a Matlab-based tutorial for model-based prognostics, which combines a physical model with observed data to identify model parameters, from which the remaining useful life (RUL) can be predicted. Among many model-based prognostics algorithms, the particle filter is used in this tutorial for parameter estimation of damage or a degradation model. The tutorial is presented using a Matlab script with 62 lines, including detailed explanations. As examples, a battery degradation model and a crack growth model are used to explain the updating process of model parameters, damage progression, and RUL prediction. In order to illustrate the results, the RUL at an arbitrary cycle are predicted in the form of distribution along with the median and 90% prediction interval. This tutorial will be helpful for the beginners in prognostics to understand and use the prognostics method, and we hope it provides a standard of particle filter based prognostics. -- Highlights: ► Matlab-based tutorial for model-based prognostics is presented. ► A battery degradation model and a crack growth model are used as examples. ► The RUL at an arbitrary cycle are predicted using the particle filter

  19. Moderate precision of prognostic scoring systems in a consecutive, prospective cohort of 544 patients with metastatic spinal cord compression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morgen, Søren Schmidt; Nielsen, Dennis Hallager; Larsen, Claus Falck

    2014-01-01

    and compared to the observed survival. We assessed how precise the scoring systems predicted survival with McNemar's test. The prognostic value was illustrated with Kaplan-Meier curves, and the individual prognostic components were analyzed with Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: The mean age was 65 years...... (range 20-95), and 57 % of the patients were men. The majority of tumors were lung (23 %), prostate (21 %), and breast tumors (18 %). The overall precision of predicted survival was 58.7 % for the Tokuhashi Revised score and 52.9 % for the Tomita score. The observed survival in each of the scoring groups...... was most precise in predicting survival. However, due to the relatively low precision, we suggest that a modification of both scoring systems is necessary....

  20. Postoperative outcome after oesophagectomy for cancer: Nutritional status is the missing ring in the current prognostic scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filip, B; Scarpa, M; Cavallin, F; Cagol, M; Alfieri, R; Saadeh, L; Ancona, E; Castoro, C

    2015-06-01

    Several prognostic scores were designed in order to estimate the risk of postoperative adverse events. None of them includes a component directly associated to the nutritional status. The aims of the study were the evaluation of performance of risk-adjusted models for early outcomes after oesophagectomy and to develop a score for severe complication prediction with special consideration regarding nutritional status. A comparison of POSSUM and Charlson score and their derivates, ASA, Lagarde score and nutritional index (PNI) was performed on 167 patients undergoing oesophagectomy for cancer. A logistic regression model was also estimated to obtain a new prognostic score for severe morbidity prediction. Overall morbidity was 35.3% (59 cases), severe complications (grade III-V of Clavien-Dindo classification) occurred in 20 cases. Discrimination was poor for all the scores. Multivariable analysis identified pulse, connective tissue disease, PNI and potassium as independent predictors of severe morbidity. This model showed good discrimination and calibration. Internal validation using standard bootstrapping techniques confirmed the good performance. Nutrition could be an independent risk factor for major complications and a nutritional status coefficient could be included in current prognostic scores to improve risk estimation of major postoperative complications after oesophagectomy for cancer. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  1. The relationship between Glasgow Prognostic Score and serum tumor markers in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Ai-Gui; Chen, Hong-Lin; Lu, Hui-Yu

    2015-05-10

    Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) has been reported as a powerful prognostic tool for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between GPS and prognosis related tumor markers in patients with advanced NSCLC. We included 138 advanced NSCLC patients and twenty healthy controls in the study. GPS was calculated by combined serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin. Three serum tumor markers, which included cytokeratin 19 fragment antigen 21-1 (CYFRA21-1), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and tissue polypeptide specific antigen (TPS), were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). GPS and tumor markers were all assessed before chemotherapy. All patients received at least 2 courses of cisplatin-based chemotherapy. After that, 2 to 5 years follow-up was conducted. Median levels of CYFRA21-1 were 1.5 ng/ml (0.1-3.1 ng/ml) in healthy controls, and 4.6 ng/ml (0.7-35.2 ng/ml) in GPS 0 advanced NSCLC, 11.2 ng/ml (0.4-89.2) ng/ml in GPS 1 advanced NSCLC, and 15.7 ng/ml (2.9-134.6 ng/ml) in GPS 2 advanced NSCLC, respectively. Median levels of CYFRA21-1 were higher in NSCLC patients than in healthy controls, and CYFRA21-1 increased gradually according to GPS category in NSCLC patients (PGPS, CEA and GPS, TPS and GPS. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient were 0.67 (P GPS was an independent prognostic factor for advanced NSCLC. CYFRA21-1(>3.3 ng/ml) and TPS (>80 U/l) were related with the prognosis of advanced NSCLC by univariate analyses, but multivariate analyses showed CYFRA21-1, TPS and CEA were not the independent prognostic factors for advanced NSCLC. Our results showed GPS were positive correlated with CYFRA21-1, CEA and TPS in patients with advanced NSCLC. However, GPS was more efficient in predicting prognosis of advanced NSCLC than these three single prognosis related tumor markers.

  2. The relationship between glasgow prognostic score and serum tumor markers in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Ai-Gui; Chen, Hong-Lin; Lu, Hui-Yu

    2015-01-01

    Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) has been reported as a powerful prognostic tool for patients with advanced non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between GPS and prognosis related tumor markers in patients with advanced NSCLC. We included 138 advanced NSCLC patients and twenty healthy controls in the study. GPS was calculated by combined serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin. Three serum tumor markers, which included cytokeratin 19 fragment antigen 21-1 (CYFRA21–1), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and tissue polypeptide specific antigen (TPS), were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). GPS and tumor markers were all assessed before chemotherapy. All patients received at least 2 courses of cisplatin-based chemotherapy. After that, 2 to 5 years follow-up was conducted. Median levels of CYFRA21–1 were 1.5 ng/ml (0.1–3.1 ng/ml) in healthy controls, and 4.6 ng/ml (0.7–35.2 ng/ml) in GPS 0 advanced NSCLC, 11.2 ng/ml (0.4–89.2) ng/ml in GPS 1 advanced NSCLC, and 15.7 ng/ml (2.9–134.6 ng/ml) in GPS 2 advanced NSCLC, respectively. Median levels of CYFRA21-1 were higher in NSCLC patients than in healthy controls, and CYFRA21-1 increased gradually according to GPS category in NSCLC patients (P < 0.05). Similar results were found for median levels of CEA and TPS in healthy controls and NSCLC patients (P < 0.05). In NSCLC patients, positive correlations were found between CYFRA21-1 and GPS, CEA and GPS, TPS and GPS. The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient were 0.67 (P < 0.05), 0.61 (P < 0.05) and 0.55 (P < 0.05), respectively. Survival analyses showed GPS was an independent prognostic factor for advanced NSCLC. CYFRA21-1(>3.3 ng/ml) and TPS (>80 U/l) were related with the prognosis of advanced NSCLC by univariate analyses, but multivariate analyses showed CYFRA21-1, TPS and CEA were not the independent prognostic factors for advanced NSCLC. Our results showed GPS were positive correlated

  3. Model-based Prognostics with Concurrent Damage Progression Processes

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    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics approaches rely on physics-based models that describe the behavior of systems and their components. These models must account for the several...

  4. Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A N; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L; Bennett, John M; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

    2015-02-01

    International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%-20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34(+)) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34(+) peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34(+) blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

  5. Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A. N.; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L.; Bennett, John M.; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R.; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

    2015-01-01

    International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%–20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34+) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34+ peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34+ blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). PMID:25344522

  6. Relationship between nutritional status and the Glasgow Prognostic Score in patients with colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurício, Sílvia Fernandes; da Silva, Jacqueline Braga; Bering, Tatiana; Correia, Maria Isabel Toulson Davisson

    2013-04-01

    The association between nutritional status and inflammation was assessed in patients with colorectal cancer and to verify their association with complications during anticancer treatment. The agreement between the Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) and different nutritional assessment methods was also evaluated. A cross-sectional, prospective, and descriptive study was performed. The nutritional status was defined by the SGA and the severity of inflammation was defined by the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS). The complications were classified using the Common Toxicity Criteria, version 3. Anthropometric measurements such as body mass index, triceps skinfold, midarm circumference, midarm muscle area, and adductor pollicis muscle thickness were also performed, as were handgrip strength and phase angle. The chi-square test, Fisher exact test, Spearman correlation coefficient, independent t test, analysis of variance, Gabriel test, and κ index were used for the statistical analysis. P cancer (60.4 ± 14.3 y old) were included. The nutritional status according to the SGA was associated with the GPS (P nutritional assessment methods with the SGA, there were statistically significant differences. Malnutrition is highly prevalent in patients with colorectal cancer. The nutritional status was associated with the GPS. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Introducing a prognostic score for pretherapeutic assessment of seminal vesicle invasion in patients with clinically localized prostate cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Laurent; Porcher, Raphaeel; Anastasiadis, Aristotelis G.; Levrel, Olivier; Saint, Fabian; Taille, Alexandre de la; Vordos, Dimitrios; Cicco, Antony; Hoznek, Andras; Chopin, Dominique; Abbou, Clement-Claude; Lagrange, Jean-Leon

    2003-01-01

    Purpose: To identify prostate cancer patients who will have the most likely benefit from sparing the seminal vesicles during 3D conformal radiation therapy. Methods and materials: From 1988 to 2001, 532 patients underwent radical prostatectomy for clinically localized prostate cancer. Primary endpoint was the pathological evidence of seminal vesicle invasion. Variables for univariate and multivariate analyses were age, prostate weight, clinical stage, PSA level, Gleason score, number and site of positive prostate sextant biopsies. Multivariate logistic regression with backward stepwise variable selection was used to identify a set of independent predictors of seminal vesicle invasion, and the variable selection procedure was validated by non-parametric bootstrap. Results: Seminal vesicle invasion was reported in 14% of the cases. In univariate analysis, all variables except age and prostate weight were predictors of seminal vesicle invasion. In multivariate analysis, only the number of positive biopsies (P<0.0001), Gleason score (P<0.007) and PSA (P<0.0001) were predictors for seminal vesicles invasion. Based on the multivariate model, we were able to develop a prognostic score for seminal vesicle invasion, which allowed us to discriminate two patient groups: A group with low risk of seminal vesicles invasion (5.7%), and the second with a higher risk of seminal vesicles invasion (32.7%). Conclusions: Using the number of positive biopsies, Gleason score and PSA, it is possible to identify patients with low risk of seminal vesicles invasion. In this population, seminal vesicles might be excluded as a target volume in radiation therapy of prostate cancer

  8. Prognostic Impact of 21-Gene Recurrence Score in Patients With Stage IV Breast Cancer: TBCRC 013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Tari A; Lyman, Jaclyn P; Gonen, Mithat; Voci, Amy; De Brot, Marina; Boafo, Camilla; Sing, Amy Pratt; Hwang, E Shelley; Alvarado, Michael D; Liu, Minetta C; Boughey, Judy C; McGuire, Kandace P; Van Poznak, Catherine H; Jacobs, Lisa K; Meszoely, Ingrid M; Krontiras, Helen; Babiera, Gildy V; Norton, Larry; Morrow, Monica; Hudis, Clifford A

    2016-07-10

    The objective of this study was to determine whether the 21-gene Recurrence Score (RS) provides clinically meaningful information in patients with de novo stage IV breast cancer enrolled in the Translational Breast Cancer Research Consortium (TBCRC) 013. TBCRC 013 was a multicenter prospective registry that evaluated the role of surgery of the primary tumor in patients with de novo stage IV breast cancer. From July 2009 to April 2012, 127 patients from 14 sites were enrolled; 109 (86%) patients had pretreatment primary tumor samples suitable for 21-gene RS analysis. Clinical variables, time to first progression (TTP), and 2-year overall survival (OS) were correlated with the 21-gene RS by using log-rank, Kaplan-Meier, and Cox regression. Median patient age was 52 years (21 to 79 years); the majority had hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative (72 [66%]) or hormone receptor-positive/HER2-positive (20 [18%]) breast cancer. At a median follow-up of 29 months, median TTP was 20 months (95% CI, 16 to 26 months), and median survival was 49 months (95% CI, 40 months to not reached). An RS was generated for 101 (93%) primary tumor samples: 22 (23%) low risk (< 18), 29 (28%) intermediate risk (18 to 30); and 50 (49%) high risk (≥ 31). For all patients, RS was associated with TTP (P = .01) and 2-year OS (P = .04). In multivariable Cox regression models among 69 patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive/HER2-negative cancer, RS was independently prognostic for TTP (hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.86; P = .02) and 2-year OS (hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.14 to 2.95; P = .013). The 21-gene RS is independently prognostic for both TTP and 2-year OS in ER-positive/HER2-negative de novo stage IV breast cancer. Prospective validation is needed to determine the potential role for this assay in the clinical management of this patient subset. © 2016 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

  9. Early myeloma-related death in elderly patients: development of a clinical prognostic score and evaluation of response sustainability role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Otero, Paula; Mateos, María Victoria; Martínez-López, Joaquín; Martín-Calvo, Nerea; Hernández, Miguel-Teodoro; Ocio, Enrique M; Rosiñol, Laura; Martínez, Rafael; Teruel, Ana-Isabel; Gutiérrez, Norma C; Bargay, Joan; Bengoechea, Enrique; González, Yolanda; de Oteyza, Jaime Pérez; Gironella, Mercedes; Encinas, Cristina; Martín, Jesús; Cabrera, Carmen; Palomera, Luis; de Arriba, Felipe; Cedena, María Teresa; Paiva, Bruno; Puig, Noemí; Oriol, Albert; Bladé, Joan; Lahuerta, Juan José; San Miguel, Jesús F

    2018-02-23

    Although survival of elderly myeloma patients has significantly improved there is still a subset of patients who, despite being fit and achieving optimal responses, will die within 2 years of diagnosis due to myeloma progression. The objective of this study was to define a scoring prognostic index to identify this group of patients. We have evaluated the outcome of 490 newly diagnosed elderly myeloma patients included in two Spanish trials (GEM2005-GEM2010). Sixty-eight patients (13.8%) died within 2 years of diagnosis (early deaths) due to myeloma progression. Our study shows that the use of simple scoring model based on 4 widely available markers (elevated LDH, ISS 3, high risk CA or >75 years) can contribute to identify up-front these patients. Moreover, unsustained response (<6 months duration) emerged as one important predictor of early myeloma-related mortality associated with a significant increase in the risk of death related to myeloma progression. The identification of these patients at high risk of early death is relevant for innovative trials aiming to maintain the depth of first response, since many of them will not receive subsequent lines of therapy.

  10. Risk factors and a prognostic score for survival after autologous stem-cell transplantation for relapsed or refractory Hodgkin lymphoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bröckelmann, P J; Müller, H; Casasnovas, O

    2017-01-01

    study (n = 1045), precise and valid risk prognostication in HL patients undergoing ASCT can be achieved with five easily available clinical RFs. The proposed prognostic score hence allows reliable stratification of patients for innovative therapeutic approaches in clinical practice and future trials...... therapeutic approaches, we investigated a comprehensive set of risk factors (RFs) for survival after ASCT. Methods: In this multinational prognostic multivariable modeling study, 23 potential RFs were retrospectively evaluated in HL patients from nine prospective trials with multivariable Cox proportional...... of potential RFs had significant impact on progression-free survival (PFS) with hazard ratios (HR) ranging from 1.39 to 2.22. The multivariable analysis identified stage IV disease, time to relapse ≤3 months, ECOG performance status ≥1, bulk ≥5 cm and inadequate response to salvage chemotherapy [

  11. A Model-based Avionic Prognostic Reasoner (MAPR)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Model-based Avionic Prognostic Reasoner (MAPR) presented in this paper is an innovative solution for non-intrusively monitoring the state of health (SoH) and...

  12. Model-based Prognostics with Fixed-lag Particle Filters

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics exploits domain knowl- edge of the system, its components, and how they fail by casting the underlying physical phenom- ena in a...

  13. Prognostic Utility of a Modified HEART Score in Chest Pain Patients in the Emergency Department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, James; Cabrera, Rafael; Lindahl, Bertil; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Evans, Kaleigh; Nowak, Richard; Frisoli, Tiberio; Body, Richard; Christ, Michael; deFilippi, Christopher R; Christenson, Robert H; Jacobsen, Gordon; Alquezar, Aitor; Panteghini, Mauro; Melki, Dina; Plebani, Mario; Verschuren, Franck; French, John; Bendig, Garnet; Weiser, Silvia; Mueller, Christian

    2017-02-01

    The TRAPID-AMI trial study (High-Sensitivity Troponin-T Assay for Rapid Rule-Out of Acute Myocardial Infarction) evaluated high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-T (hs-cTnT) in a 1-hour acute myocardial infarction (AMI) exclusion algorithm. Our study objective was to evaluate the prognostic utility of a modified HEART score (m-HS) within this trial. Twelve centers evaluated 1282 patients in the emergency department for possible AMI from 2011 to 2013. Measurements of hs-cTnT (99th percentile, 14 ng/L) were performed at 0, 1, 2, and 4 to 14 hours. Evaluation for major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) occurred at 30 days (death or AMI). Low-risk patients had an m-HS≤3 and had either hs-cTnT<14 ng/L over serial testing or had AMI excluded by the 1-hour protocol. By the 1-hour protocol, 777 (60%) patients had an AMI excluded. Of those 777 patients, 515 (66.3%) patients had an m-HS≤3, with 1 (0.2%) patient having a MACE, and 262 (33.7%) patients had an m-HS≥4, with 6 (2.3%) patients having MACEs (P=0.007). Over 4 to 14 hours, 661 patients had a hs-cTnT<14 ng/L. Of those 661 patients, 413 (62.5%) patients had an m-HS≤3, with 1 (0.2%) patient having a MACE, and 248 (37.5%) patients had an m-HS≥4, with 5 (2.0%) patients having MACEs (P=0.03). Serial testing of hs-cTnT over 1 hour along with application of an m-HS identified a low-risk population that might be able to be directly discharged from the emergency department. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  14. LIPID PROFILE OF CIRRHOTIC PATIENTS AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH PROGNOSTIC SCORES: a cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lílian BASSANI

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundIn cirrhosis the production of cholesterol and lipoproteins is altered.ObjectiveEvaluate the lipid profile by measuring total cholesterol, very low-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein and triglyceride levels in patients with cirrhosis caused by alcoholism and/or hepatitis C virus infection and determine its association with Child-Pugh and MELD scores.MethodsCross-sectional retrospective study of patients treated at the outpatient clinic in Porto Alegre, Brazil, from 2006 to 2010.ResultsIn total, 314 records were reviewed, and 153 (48.7% met the inclusion criteria, of which 82 (53.6% had cirrhosis that was due to hepatitis C virus infection, 50 (32.7% were due to alcoholism, and 21 (13.7% were due to alcoholism and hepatitis C virus infection. The total cholesterol levels diminished with a Child-Pugh progression (P20 was associated with lower total cholesterol levels (<100mg/dL; P<0.001, very low-density lipoprotein (<16 mg/dL; P=0.006, and low-density lipoprotein (<70 mg/dL; P=0.003. Inverse and statistically significant correlations were observed between Child-Pugh and all the lipid fractions analyzed (P<0.001. The increase in MELD was inversely correlated with reduced levels intotal cholesterol (P<0.001, high-density lipoprotein (P<0.001, low-density lipoprotein (P<0.001, very low-density lipoprotein (P=0.030 and triglyceride (P=0.003.ConclusionA reduction in the lipid profile in patients with cirrhosis due to hepatitis C virus infection and/or alcoholism was significantly associated with the Child-Pugh and MELD prognostic markers. These results suggest that the lipid profile may be used as a tool to assist in evaluating liver disease.

  15. Combined evaluation of the Glasgow prognostic score and carcinoembryonic antigen concentration prior to hepatectomy predicts postoperative outcomes in patients with liver metastasis from colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Takashi; Kawakamil, Masayo; Hara, Yoshiaki; Shioiri, Sadaaki; Yasuno, Masamichi; Teruya, Masanori; Kaminishi, Michio

    2014-01-01

    Little is known about the ability of the inflammation-based Glasgow prognostic score (GPS). 106 patients who underwent curative resection for colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) were analyzed. Patients with an elevated Creactive protein concentration (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (L) at admission were assigned a GPS 2, those with only 1 of these biochemical abnormalities were assigned a GPS 1, and those without either abnormality were assigned a GPS 0. Multivariate analysis showed that 2 variables, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) concentration > 30 ng/mL and a GPS 1 or 2, were independently prognostic of survival. Patients were classified into 3 groups on the basis of these 2 variables. Patients with GPS 1 or 2 and CEA concentration > 30 ng/mL were assigned a new score of 2, those with either 1 factor were assigned a new score of 1, and those with neither factors were assigned a new score of 0. The 5-year overall survival rates of new scores of 0, 1, 2 were 71.5%, 31.6%, and 0%, respectively (P < 0.0001). This simple staging system may be able to identify a subgroup of patients who are eligible for curative resection but show poor prognosis.

  16. Use of the Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) score in patients with brain metastases from primary tumours not represented in the diagnosis-specific GPA studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nieder, C. [Nordland Hospital, Bodoe (Norway). Dept. of Oncology and Palliative Medicine; Tromsoe Univ. (Norway). Inst. of Clinical Medicine; Andratschke, N.H. [University Hospital Rostock (Germany). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Geinitz, H. [Klinikum rechts der Isar der Technischen Univ. Muenchen (Germany). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Grosu, A.L. [University Hospital Freiburg (Germany). Dept. of Radiation Oncology

    2012-08-15

    Background and purpose: Assessment of prognostic factors might influence treatment decisions in patients with brain metastases. Based on large studies, the diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment (GPA) score is a useful tool. However, patients with unknown or rare primary tumours are not represented in this model. A pragmatic approach might be use of the first GPA version which is not limited to specific primary tumours. Patients and methods: This retrospective analysis examines for the first time whether the GPA is a valid score in patients not eligible for the diagnosis-specific GPA. It includes 71 patients with unknown primary tumour, bladder cancer, ovarian cancer, thyroid cancer or other uncommon primaries. Survival was evaluated in uni- and multivariate tests. Results: The GPA significantly predicted survival. Moreover, improved survival was seen in patients treated with surgical resection or radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases. The older recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) score was significant in univariate analysis. However, the multivariate model with RPA, GPA and surgery or SRS versus none showed that only GPA and type of treatment were independent predictors of survival. Conclusion: Ideally, cooperative research efforts would lead to development of diagnosis-specific scores also for patients with rare or unknown primary tumours. In the meantime, a pragmatic approach of using the general GPA score appears reasonable. (orig.)

  17. Use of the Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) score in patients with brain metastases from primary tumours not represented in the diagnosis-specific GPA studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieder, C.; Tromsoe Univ.; Andratschke, N.H.; Geinitz, H.; Grosu, A.L.

    2012-01-01

    Background and purpose: Assessment of prognostic factors might influence treatment decisions in patients with brain metastases. Based on large studies, the diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment (GPA) score is a useful tool. However, patients with unknown or rare primary tumours are not represented in this model. A pragmatic approach might be use of the first GPA version which is not limited to specific primary tumours. Patients and methods: This retrospective analysis examines for the first time whether the GPA is a valid score in patients not eligible for the diagnosis-specific GPA. It includes 71 patients with unknown primary tumour, bladder cancer, ovarian cancer, thyroid cancer or other uncommon primaries. Survival was evaluated in uni- and multivariate tests. Results: The GPA significantly predicted survival. Moreover, improved survival was seen in patients treated with surgical resection or radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases. The older recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) score was significant in univariate analysis. However, the multivariate model with RPA, GPA and surgery or SRS versus none showed that only GPA and type of treatment were independent predictors of survival. Conclusion: Ideally, cooperative research efforts would lead to development of diagnosis-specific scores also for patients with rare or unknown primary tumours. In the meantime, a pragmatic approach of using the general GPA score appears reasonable. (orig.)

  18. Prognostic Accuracy of the GRACE Score in Octogenarians and Nonagenarians with Acute Coronary Syndromes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Mauricio dos Santos Cerqueira Junior

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: The GRACE Score was derived and validated from a cohort in which octogenarians and nonagenarians were poorly represented. Objective: To test the accuracy of the GRACE score in predicting in-hospital mortality of very elderly individuals with acute coronary syndromes (ACS. Methods: Prospective observational study conducted in the intensive coronary care unit of a tertiary center from September 2011 to August 2016. Patients consecutively admitted due to ACS were selected, and the very elderly group was defined by age ≥ 80 years. The GRACE Score was based on admission data and its accuracy was tested regarding prediction of in-hospital death. Statistical significance was defined by p value < 0,05. Results: A total of 994 individuals was studied, 57% male, 77% with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction and 173 (17% very elderly patients. The mean age of the sample was 65 ± 13 years, and the mean age of very elderly patients subgroup was 85 ± 3.7 years. The C-statistics of the GRACE Score in very elderly patients was 0.86 (95% CI = 0.78 - 0.93, with no difference when compared to the value for younger individuals 0.83 (95% CI = 0.75 - 0.91, with p = 0.69. The calibration of the score in very elderly patients was described by χ2 test of Hosmer-Lemeshow = 2.2 (p = 0.98, while the remaining patients presented χ2 = 9.0 (p = 0.35. Logistic regression analysis for death prediction did not show interaction between GRACE Score and variable of very elderly patients (p = 0.25. Conclusion: The GRACE Score in very elderly patients is accurate in predicting in-hospital ACS mortality, similarly to younger patients.

  19. Development of a Prognostic Score Using the Complete Blood Cell Count for Survival Prediction in Unselected Critically Ill Patients

    OpenAIRE

    Chongliang, Fang; Yuzhong, Li; Qian, Shi; Xiliang, Liu; Hui, Liu

    2013-01-01

    Objective. The purpose of this study was to develop a new prognostic scoring system for critically ill patients using the simple complete blood cell count (CBC). Methods. CBC measurements in samples from 306 patients in an intensive care unit were conducted with automated analyzers, including levels of neutrophils, lymphocytes, erythrocytes, hemoglobin, and platelets. The time of sampling and the time of death were recorded. Z values were calculated according to the measured values, reference...

  20. Prognostic score in patients with recurrent or metastatic carcinoma of the head and neck treated with cetuximab and chemotherapy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa Magnes

    Full Text Available Despite modern treatment approaches, survival of patients with recurrent or metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN remains low and it is difficult to identify patients who derive optimal benefit from treatment. We therefore analyzed which commonly available laboratory and clinical parameters may help improve the prognostication in this patient group. This retrospective monocenter analysis includes 128 patients with recurrent or metastatic SCCHN treated with cetuximab alone or in combination with polychemotherapy as first line therapy. Factors with independent prognostic power in the multivariate analysis were used to build up a score separating patient groups with different survival. Patients had a median age of 61 years and 103 patients were treated with polychemotherapy plus cetuximab. An ECOG score above 1, high CRP and leukocyte levels, less intensive treatment and a time below 12 months from primary diagnosis to relapse remained as independent negative prognostic factors in multivariate analysis. Patients with 0 to 1 risk factors had a median OS of 13.6 months compared to a median OS of less than one month for patients 4 to 5 risk factors (p<0.001. This study identifies 5 clinical and serum values that influence survival of patients with recurrent or metastatic SCCHN treated with cetuximab. By combining these factors to create a score for OS, it is possible to distinguish a group of patients with significantly improved survival and define those most likely to have no benefit from cetuximab treatment.

  1. Association between pretreatment Glasgow prognostic score and gastric cancer survival and clinicopathological features: a meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang CX

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Chun-Xiao Zhang,* Shu-Yi Wang,* Shuang-Qian Chen, Shuai-Long Yang, Lu Wan, Bin Xiong Department of Oncology, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Hubei Key Laboratory of Tumor Biological Behaviors and Hubei Cancer Clinical Study Center, Wuhan, Hubei, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: Glasgow prognostic score (GPS is widely known as a systemic inflammatory-based marker. The relationship between pretreatment GPS and gastric cancer (GC survival and clinicopathological features remains controversial. The aim of the study was to conduct a meta-analysis of published studies to evaluate the association between pretreatment GPS and survival and clinicopathological features in GC patients. Methods: We searched PubMed, Embase, MEDLINE, and BioMed databases for relevant studies. Combined analyses were used to assess the association between pretreatment GPS and overall survival, disease-free survival, and clinicopathological parameters by Stata Version 12.0. Results: A total of 14 studies were included in this meta-analysis, including 5,579 GC patients. The results indicated that pretreatment high GPS (HGPS predicted poor overall survival (hazard ratio =1.51, 95% CI: 1.37–1.66, P<0.01 and disease-free survival (hazard ratio =1.45, 95% CI: 1.26–1.68, P<0.01 in GC patients. Pretreatment HGPS was also significantly associated with advanced tumor–node–metastasis stage (odds ratio [OR] =3.09, 95% CI: 2.11–4.53, P<0.01, lymph node metastasis (OR =4.60, 95% CI: 3.23–6.56, P<0.01, lymphatic invasion (OR =3.04, 95% CI: 2.00–4.62, P<0.01, and venous invasion (OR =3.56, 95% CI: 1.81–6.99, P<0.01. Conclusion: Our meta-analysis indicated that pretreatment HGPS could be a predicative factor of poor survival outcome and clinicopathological features for GC patients. Keywords: Glasgow prognostic score, gastric cancer, survival, clinicopathological feature

  2. Novel immunological and nutritional-based prognostic index for gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Kai-Yu; Xu, Jian-Bo; Chen, Shu-Ling; Yuan, Yu-Jie; Wu, Hui; Peng, Jian-Jun; Chen, Chuang-Qi; Guo, Pi; Hao, Yuan-Tao; He, Yu-Long

    2015-05-21

    To assess the prognostic significance of immunological and nutritional-based indices, including the prognostic nutritional index (PNI), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet-lymphocyte ratio in gastric cancer. We retrospectively reviewed 632 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy between 1998 and 2008. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were calculated to compare the predictive ability of the indices, together with estimating the sensitivity, specificity and agreement rate. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors for overall survival (OS). Propensity score analysis was performed to adjust variables to control for selection bias. Each index could predict OS in gastric cancer patients in univariate analysis, but only PNI had independent prognostic significance in multivariate analysis before and after adjustment with propensity scoring (hazard ratio, 1.668; 95% confidence interval: 1.368-2.035). In subgroup analysis, a low PNI predicted a significantly shorter OS in patients with stage II-III disease (P = 0.019, P gastric cancer. Canton score can be a novel preoperative prognostic index in gastric cancer.

  3. Prognostic Value of High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T Compared with Risk Scores in Stable Cardiovascular Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biener, Moritz; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Kuhner, Manuel; Zelniker, Thomas; Mueller-Hennessen, Matthias; Vafaie, Mehrshad; Trenk, Dietmar; Neumann, Franz-Josef; Hochholzer, Willibald; Katus, Hugo A

    2017-05-01

    Risk stratification of patients with cardiovascular disease remains challenging despite consideration of risk scores. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T in a low-risk outpatient population presenting for nonsecondary and secondary prevention. All-cause mortality, a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke (end point 2), and a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, stroke and rehospitalization for acute coronary syndrome, and decompensated heart failure (end point 3) were defined. The prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T on index visit was compared with the PROCAM score and 3 FRAMINGHAM subscores. In 693 patients with a median follow-up of 796 days, we observed 16 deaths, 32 patients with end point 2, and 83 patients with end point 3. All risk scores performed better in the prediction of all-cause mortality in nonsecondary prevention (area under the curve [AUC]: PROCAM: 0.922 vs 0.523, P = .001, consistent for all other scores). In secondary prevention, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T outperformed all risk scores in the prediction of all-cause mortality (ΔAUC: PROCAM: 0.319, P risk scores. Our findings on the prediction of all-cause mortality compared with the FRAMINGHAM-Hard Coronary Heart Disease score were confirmed in an independent validation cohort on 2046 patients. High-sensitivity troponin T provides excellent risk stratification regarding all-cause mortality and all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke in a secondary prevention cohort in whom risk scores perform poorly. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Personalized Prognostic Risk Score for Long-Term Survival for Children with Acute Leukemia after Allogeneic Transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitan, Menachem; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Millard, Heather R; Pulsipher, Michael A; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Auletta, Jeffery J; Brown, Valerie; Chan, Ka Wah; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Dietz, Andrew; Vincent, Marta González; Guilcher, Gregory; Hale, Gregory A; Hayashi, Robert J; Keating, Amy; Mehta, Parinda; Myers, Kasiani; Page, Kristin; Prestidge, Tim; Shah, Nirali N; Smith, Angela R; Woolfrey, Ann; Thiel, Elizabeth; Davies, Stella M; Eapen, Mary

    2017-09-01

    We studied leukemia-free (LFS) and overall survival (OS) in children with acute myeloid (AML, n = 790) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, n = 1096) who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2010 and who survived for at least 1 year in remission after related or unrelated donor transplantation. Analysis of patient-, disease-, and transplantation characteristics and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was performed to identify factors with adverse effects on LFS and OS. These data were used to develop risk scores for survival. We did not identify any prognostic factors beyond 4 years after transplantation for AML and beyond 3 years for ALL. Risk score for survival for AML includes age, disease status at transplantation, cytogenetic risk group, and chronic GVHD. For ALL, the risk score includes age at transplantation and chronic GVHD. The 10-year probabilities of OS for AML with good (score 0, 1, or 2), intermediate (score 3), and poor risk (score 4, 5, 6, or 7) were 94%, 87%, and 68%, respectively. The 10-year probabilities of OS for ALL were 89% and 80% for good (score 0 or 1) and poor risk (score 2), respectively. Identifying children at risk for late mortality with early intervention may mitigate some excess late mortality. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Report on outcomes of hypomethylating therapy for analyzing prognostic value of Revised International Prognostic Scoring System for patients with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yoo Jin; Park, Sung Woo; Lee, In Hee; Ahn, Jae Sook; Kim, Hyeoung Joon; Chung, Joo Seop; Shin, Ho Jin; Lee, Won Sik; Lee, Sang Min; Joo, Young Don; Kim, Hawk; Lee, Ho Sup; Kim, Yang Soo; Cho, Yoon Young; Moon, Joon Ho; Sohn, Sang Kyun

    2016-10-01

    The outcomes for patients with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (LR-MDS) by the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) vary widely. For more precise prognostication, this study evaluates the prognostic value of revised IPSS with the response to hypomethylating therapy (HMT). Using the Korean MDS Working Party database, treatment outcomes for 236 patients with HMT were retrospectively evaluated. The patients were then reclassified into very low/low (VL/L), intermediate (INT), and high (H) risk groups according to IPSS-R. According to the HMT response, the 3-year overall survival (OS) did not differ between the response group (37.9 ± 9.1 %) and the stable group (52.9 ± 6.6 %, p = 0. 782). When reclassifying according to IPSS-R, 42 patients (20.8 %) were reclassified into the H risk group. Most of them did not have benefit from continued HMT and progressed to secondary failure. The median OS was 59.0 months (range, 40.0-77.9 months) for the VL/L risk group, 31 months (range, 22.7-439.3 months) for the INT risk group, and 20.0 months (range, 15.9-24.1 months) for the H risk group (p risk group according to IPSS-R (HR = 3.054, p risk according to IPSS-R (HR = 4.912, p = 0.003), and transformation to AML (HR = 2.158, p = 0.002). If IPSS-R reclassifies LR-MDS patients as H risk, these patients should be considered for early allo-HCT, regardless of the current benefits from HMT.

  6. Performance of critical care prognostic scoring systems in low and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haniffa, Rashan; Isaam, Ilhaam; De Silva, A Pubudu; Dondorp, Arjen M; De Keizer, Nicolette F

    2018-01-26

    Prognostic models-used in critical care medicine for mortality predictions, for benchmarking and for illness stratification in clinical trials-have been validated predominantly in high-income countries. These results may not be reproducible in low or middle-income countries (LMICs), not only because of different case-mix characteristics but also because of missing predictor variables. The study objective was to systematically review literature on the use of critical care prognostic models in LMICs and assess their ability to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors at hospital discharge of those admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), their calibration, their accuracy, and the manner in which missing values were handled. The PubMed database was searched in March 2017 to identify research articles reporting the use and performance of prognostic models in the evaluation of mortality in ICUs in LMICs. Studies carried out in ICUs in high-income countries or paediatric ICUs and studies that evaluated disease-specific scoring systems, were limited to a specific disease or single prognostic factor, were published only as abstracts, editorials, letters and systematic and narrative reviews or were not in English were excluded. Of the 2233 studies retrieved, 473 were searched and 50 articles reporting 119 models were included. Five articles described the development and evaluation of new models, whereas 114 articles externally validated Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, the Simplified Acute Physiology Score and Mortality Probability Models or versions thereof. Missing values were only described in 34% of studies; exclusion and or imputation by normal values were used. Discrimination, calibration and accuracy were reported in 94.0%, 72.4% and 25% respectively. Good discrimination and calibration were reported in 88.9% and 58.3% respectively. However, only 10 evaluations that reported excellent discrimination also reported good calibration

  7. Prognostic value of the C-reactive protein to albumin ratio: a novel inflammation-based prognostic indicator in osteosarcoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li YJ

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Yong-Jiang Li,1,* Kai Yao,2,* Min-Xun Lu,2 Wen-Biao Zhang,1 Cong Xiao,2 Chong-Qi Tu2 1Department of Oncology, 2Department of Orthopedics, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Abstract: The prognostic role of the C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CRP/Alb ratio in patients with osteosarcoma has not been investigated. A total of 216 osteosarcoma patients were enrolled in the study. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses between the groups were performed and Kaplan–Meier analysis was conducted to plot the survival curves. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated and areas under the curve (AUCs were compared to assess the discriminatory ability of the inflammation-based indicators, including CRP/Alb ratio, Glasgow prognostic score (GPS, neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR, and platelet–lymphocyte ratio (PLR. The optimal cutoff value was 0.210 for CRP/Alb ratio with a Youden index of 0.319. Higher values of CRP/Alb ratio were significantly associated with poorer overall survival in univariate (HR =2.62, 95% CI =1.70–4.03; P<0.001 and multivariate (HR =2.21, 95% CI =1.40–3.49; P=0.001 analyses. In addition, the CRP/Alb ratio had significantly higher AUC values compared with GPS (P=0.003, NLR (P<0.001, and PLR (P<0.001. The study demonstrated that the CRP/Alb ratio is an effective inflammation-based prognostic indicator in osteosarcoma, which potentially has a discriminatory ability superior to that of other inflammatory indicators including GPS, NLR, and PLR. Keywords: osteosarcoma, CRP to albumin ratio, prognosis

  8. "Score the Core" Web-based pathologist training tool improves the accuracy of breast cancer IHC4 scoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelberg, Jesse A; Retallack, Hanna; Balassanian, Ronald; Dowsett, Mitchell; Zabaglo, Lila; Ram, Arishneel A; Apple, Sophia K; Bishop, John W; Borowsky, Alexander D; Carpenter, Philip M; Chen, Yunn-Yi; Datnow, Brian; Elson, Sarah; Hasteh, Farnaz; Lin, Fritz; Moatamed, Neda A; Zhang, Yanhong; Cardiff, Robert D

    2015-11-01

    Hormone receptor status is an integral component of decision-making in breast cancer management. IHC4 score is an algorithm that combines hormone receptor, HER2, and Ki-67 status to provide a semiquantitative prognostic score for breast cancer. High accuracy and low interobserver variance are important to ensure the score is accurately calculated; however, few previous efforts have been made to measure or decrease interobserver variance. We developed a Web-based training tool, called "Score the Core" (STC) using tissue microarrays to train pathologists to visually score estrogen receptor (using the 300-point H score), progesterone receptor (percent positive), and Ki-67 (percent positive). STC used a reference score calculated from a reproducible manual counting method. Pathologists in the Athena Breast Health Network and pathology residents at associated institutions completed the exercise. By using STC, pathologists improved their estrogen receptor H score and progesterone receptor and Ki-67 proportion assessment and demonstrated a good correlation between pathologist and reference scores. In addition, we collected information about pathologist performance that allowed us to compare individual pathologists and measures of agreement. Pathologists' assessment of the proportion of positive cells was closer to the reference than their assessment of the relative intensity of positive cells. Careful training and assessment should be used to ensure the accuracy of breast biomarkers. This is particularly important as breast cancer diagnostics become increasingly quantitative and reproducible. Our training tool is a novel approach for pathologist training that can serve as an important component of ongoing quality assessment and can improve the accuracy of breast cancer prognostic biomarkers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. The Glasgow Prognostic Score. An useful tool to predict survival in patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Maria Aparecida Coelho de Arruda; Lerco, Mauro Masson; de Oliveira, Walmar Kerche; Guerra, Anderson Roberto; Rodrigues, Maria Aparecida Marchesan

    2015-08-01

    To evaluate the usefulness of the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) in patients with esophageal carcinoma (EC). A total of 50 patients with EC were analyzed for GPS, nutritional and clinicopathologic parameters. Patients with CRP ≤ 1.0mg/L and albumin ≥ 3.5mg/L were considered as GPS = 0. Patients with only CRP increased or albumin decreased were classified as GPS = 1 and patients with CRP > 1.0mg/L and albumin L were considered as GPS = 2. GPS of 0, 1 and 2 were observed in seven, 23 and 20 patients, respectively. A significant inverse relationship was observed between GPS scores and the survival rate. The survival rate was greatest in patients with GPS = 0 and significantly higher than those from patients with GPS = 1 and GPS = 2. Minimum 12-month survival was observed in 71% patients with GPS = 0 and in 30% patients with GPS = 1. None of the patients with GPS = 2 survived for 12 months. A significant relationship between CRP or albumin individually and the survival rate was observed. No significant relationship among nutritional, clinic pathological parameters and survival was found. Glasgow Prognostic Score is an useful tool to predict survival in patients with esophageal carcinoma.

  10. Procalcitonin Improves the Glasgow Prognostic Score for Outcome Prediction in Emergency Patients with Cancer: A Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Christina Rast

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS is useful for predicting long-term mortality in cancer patients. Our aim was to validate the GPS in ED patients with different cancer-related urgency and investigate whether biomarkers would improve its accuracy. We followed consecutive medical patients presenting with a cancer-related medical urgency to a tertiary care hospital in Switzerland. Upon admission, we measured procalcitonin (PCT, white blood cell count, urea, 25-hydroxyvitamin D, corrected calcium, C-reactive protein, and albumin and calculated the GPS. Of 341 included patients (median age 68 years, 61% males, 81 (23.8% died within 30 days after admission. The GPS showed moderate prognostic accuracy (AUC 0.67 for mortality. Among the different biomarkers, PCT provided the highest prognostic accuracy (odds ratio 1.6 (95% confidence interval 1.3 to 1.9, P<0.001, AUC 0.69 and significantly improved the GPS to a combined AUC of 0.74 (P=0.007. Considering all investigated biomarkers, the AUC increased to 0.76 (P<0.001. The GPS performance was significantly improved by the addition of PCT and other biomarkers for risk stratification in ED cancer patients. The benefit of early risk stratification by the GPS in combination with biomarkers from different pathways should be investigated in further interventional trials.

  11. Prognostic and Predictive Value of the 21-Gene Recurrence Score Assay in a Randomized Trial of Chemotherapy for Postmenopausal, Node-Positive, Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albain, Kathy S.; Barlow, William E.; Shak, Steven; Hortobagyi, Gabriel N.; Livingston, Robert B.; Yeh, I-Tien; Ravdin, Peter; Bugarini, Roberto; Baehner, Frederick L.; Davidson, Nancy E.; Sledge, George W.; Winer, Eric P.; Hudis, Clifford; Ingle, James N.; Perez, Edith A.; Pritchard, Kathleen I.; Shepherd, Lois; Gralow, Julie R.; Yoshizawa, Carl; Allred, D. Craig; Osborne, C. Kent; Hayes, Daniel F.

    2010-01-01

    SUMMARY Background The 21-gene Recurrence Score assay (RS) is prognostic for women with node-negative, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer (BC) treated with tamoxifen. A low RS predicts little benefit of chemotherapy. For node-positive BC, we investigated whether RS was prognostic in women treated with tamoxifen alone and whether it identified those who might not benefit from anthracycline-based chemotherapy, despite higher recurrence risks. Methods The phase III trial S8814 for postmenopausal women with node-positive, ER-positive BC showed that CAF chemotherapy prior to tamoxifen (CAF-T) added survival benefit to tamoxifen alone. Optional tumor banking yielded specimens for RS determination by RT-PCR. We evaluated the effect of RS on disease-free survival (DFS) by treatment group (tamoxifen versus CAF-T) using Cox regression adjusting for number of positive nodes. Findings There were 367 specimens (40% of parent trial) with sufficient RNA (tamoxifen, 148; CAF-T, 219). The RS was prognostic in the tamoxifen arm (p=0.006). There was no CAF benefit in the low RS group (logrank p=0.97; HR=1.02, 95% CI (0.54,1.93)), but major DFS improvement for the high RS subset (logrank p=.03; HR=0.59, 95% CI (0.35, 1.01)), adjusting for number of positive nodes. The RS-by-treatment interaction was significant in the first 5 years (p=0.029), with no additional prediction beyond 5 years (p=0.58), though the cumulative benefit remained at 10 years. Results were similar for overall survival and BC-specific survival. Interpretation In this retrospective analysis, the RS is prognostic for tamoxifen-treated patients with positive nodes and predicts significant CAF benefit in tumors with a high RS. A low RS identifies women who may not benefit from anthracycline-based chemotherapy despite positive nodes. PMID:20005174

  12. Prognostic value of FOUR and GCS scores in determining mortality in patients with traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saika, Amrit; Bansal, Sonia; Philip, Mariamma; Devi, Bhagavatula Indira; Shukla, Dhaval P

    2015-09-01

    The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) is considered the gold standard for assessment of unconsciousness in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) against which other scales are compared. To overcome the disadvantages of GCS, the Full Outline Of Unresponsiveness (FOUR) score was proposed. We aimed to compare the predictability of FOUR score and GCS for early mortality, after moderate and severe TBI. This is a prospective observational study of patients with moderate and severe TBI. Both FOUR and GCS scores were determined at admission. The primary outcome was mortality at the end of 2 weeks of injury. A total of 138 (117 males) patients were included in the study. Out of these, 17 (12.3 %) patients died within 2 weeks of injury. The mean GCS and FOUR scores were 9.5 (range, 3-13) and 11 (0-16), respectively. The total GCS and FOUR scores were significantly lower in patients who did not survive. At a cut-off score of 7 for FOUR score, the AUC was 0.97, with sensitivity of 97.5 and specificity of 88.2 % (p FOUR scores. The predictive value of the FOUR score on admission of patients with TBI is no better than the GCS score.

  13. Efficacy of NETDC (New England Trophoblastic Disease Center prognostic index score to predict gestational trophoblastic tumor from hydatidiform mole

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khrismawan Khrismawan

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available A prospective longitudinal analytic study assessing the efficacy of NETDC (New England Trophoblastic Disease Center prognostic index score in predicting malignancy after hydatidiform mole had been performed. Of the parameter evaluated; age of patients, type of hydatidiform mole, uterine enlargement, serum hCG level, lutein cyst, and presence of complicating factors were significant risk factors for malignancy after hydatidiform mole were evacuated (p<0.032. The study were done on 50 women diagnosed with hydatidiform mole with 1 year observation (January 2001-December 2002 at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Mohammad Hoesin Hospital, Palembang. The results showed that the NETDC prognostic index score predicted malignancy in 50% of high risk group and 10% in low risk group (p<0.05. This showed a higher number than that found by the WHO (19%-30%. The risk for incidence of  malignancy after hydatidiform mole in the high risk group is 9.0 times higher compared to that of the low risk group (CI: 1.769-45.786. (Med J Indones 2004; 13: 40-6 Keywords: New England Trophoblastic Disease Center (NETDC, gestational trophoblastic tumor, hydatidiform mole, high and low risk

  14. The modified Glasgow prognostic score in patients undergoing surgery for bone and soft tissue sarcoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morhij, Rossel; Mahendra, Ashish; Jane, Mike; McMillan, Donald C

    2017-05-01

    The prognostic significance of markers of the systemic inflammatory response in patients with soft tissue and bone sarcomas remains unclear. Therefore, the present study aimed to compare the prognostic value of markers of the systemic inflammatory response in patients undergoing surgery for primary soft tissue and bone sarcoma. Patients who underwent resection of primary soft tissue/bone sarcoma between 2008 and 2012 and had pre-operative measurements of the systemic inflammatory response [C-reactive protein, albumin, white cell, neutrophil, lymphocyte and platelet counts, and the combination of C-reactive protein and albumin (mGPS)] were included in the study (n = 111). The majority of the patients were ≤50 years old (84%), were female (63%), had soft tissue sarcoma (62%), and had tumours >10 cm (52%), mostly of high grade (85%). The median follow-up of survivors was 50 months (range 34-78); 24 (21%) developed local recurrence, 35 (31%) developed distant metastases and 30 (30%) died of their cancer. On univariate analysis, tumour size (P sarcoma. Copyright © 2017 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Applicability and prognostic value of histologic scoring systems in primary sclerosing cholangitis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, Elisabeth M. G.; Verheij, Joanne; Hubscher, Stefan G.; Leeflang, Mariska M. G.; Boonstra, Kirsten; Beuers, Ulrich; Ponsioen, Cyriel Y.

    2015-01-01

    Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease. At present, there is no appropriate histologic scoring system available for PSC, evaluating both degree of necroinflammatory activity (grade) and fibrosis (stage). The aim of this study was to assess if three scoring

  16. Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms Based on Kalman Filter Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvan, Jose Ramon; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process, and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

  17. Validation of the prognostic value of histologic scoring systems in primary sclerosing cholangitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Vries, Elisabeth M G; de Krijger, Manon; Färkkilä, Martti

    2017-01-01

    across a multicenter PSC cohort. Liver biopsies from PSC patients were collected from seven European institutions. Histologic scoring was performed using the Nakanuma, Ishak, and Ludwig scoring systems. Biopsies were independently scored by six liver pathologists for interobserver agreement.......19-5.80] for endpoint 2 and HR, 2.06 [95% CI, 1.09-3.89] for endpoint 3). Only the Nakanuma staging system was independently associated with endpoint 1: HR, 2.14 (95% CI, 1.22-3.77). Interobserver agreement was moderate for Nakanuma stage (κ = 0.56) and substantial for Nakanuma component fibrosis (κ = 0.67), Ishak...

  18. Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score is a prognostic marker for gastric cancer patients after curative resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuroda, Daisuke; Sawayama, Hiroshi; Kurashige, Junji; Iwatsuki, Masaaki; Eto, Tsugio; Tokunaga, Ryuma; Kitano, Yuki; Yamamura, Kensuke; Ouchi, Mayuko; Nakamura, Kenichi; Baba, Yoshifumi; Sakamoto, Yasuo; Yamashita, Yoichi; Yoshida, Naoya; Chikamoto, Akira; Baba, Hideo

    2018-03-01

    Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT), as calculated from serum albumin, total cholesterol concentration, and total lymphocyte count, was previously shown to be useful for nutritional assessment. The current study investigated the potential use of CONUT as a prognostic marker in gastric cancer patients after curative resection. Preoperative CONUT was retrospectively calculated in 416 gastric cancer patients who underwent curative resection at Kumamoto University Hospital from 2005 to 2014. The patients were divided into two groups: CONUT-high (≥4) and CONUT-low (≤3), according to time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The associations of CONUT with clinicopathological factors and survival were evaluated. CONUT-high patients were significantly older (p nutritional status but also for predicting long-term OS in gastric cancer patients after curative resection.

  19. Acute imaging does not improve ASTRAL score's accuracy despite having a prognostic value.

    OpenAIRE

    Ntaios, G.; Papavasileiou, V.; Faouzi, M.; Vanacker, P.; Wintermark, M.; Michel, P.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The ASTRAL score was recently shown to reliably predict three-month functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. AIM: The study aims to investigate whether information from multimodal imaging increases ASTRAL score's accuracy. METHODS: All patients registered in the ASTRAL registry until March 2011 were included. In multivariate logistic-regression analyses, we added covariates derived from parenchymal, vascular, and perfusion imaging to the 6-parameter model o...

  20. The prognostic role of controlling nutritional status scores in patients with solid tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Ruo-Fei; Li, Jun-Hong; Li, Mao; Yang, Yuan; Liu, Yan-Hui

    2017-11-01

    We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the association between preoperative controlling nutritional status (CONUT) scores in various solid tumors and clinical outcomes. Relevant studies published up to August 12, 2017 were identified using electronic databases, including PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science. The pooled hazard ratios (HR) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) were calculated to explore the relationship between preoperative CONUT score and prognosis. In total, 674 patients with solid tumors from four published studies were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled HR for OS was 1.98 (95% CI, 1.34-2.91, p=0.001), indicating that patients with high CONUT scores had worse OS. The pooled HR for EFS was 1.98 (95% CI, 1.34-2.93, p=0.001), revealing that high CONUT scores were significantly associated with short EFS. Our data suggest that high preoperative CONUT scores indicate poor prognosis for patients with solid tumors. Further studies are needed to verify the significance of CONUT scores in clinical practice. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  1. Validation of new prognostic and predictive scores by sequential testing approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieder, Carsten; Haukland, Ellinor; Pawinski, Adam; Dalhaug, Astrid

    2010-01-01

    Background and Purpose: For practitioners, the question arises how their own patient population differs from that used in large-scale analyses resulting in new scores and nomograms and whether such tools actually are valid at a local level and thus can be implemented. A recent article proposed an easy-to-use method for the in-clinic validation of new prediction tools with a limited number of patients, a so-called sequential testing approach. The present study evaluates this approach in scores related to radiation oncology. Material and Methods: Three different scores were used, each predicting short overall survival after palliative radiotherapy (bone metastases, brain metastases, metastatic spinal cord compression). For each scenario, a limited number of consecutive patients entered the sequential testing approach. The positive predictive value (PPV) was used for validation of the respective score and it was required that the PPV exceeded 80%. Results: For two scores, validity in the own local patient population could be confirmed after entering 13 and 17 patients, respectively. For the third score, no decision could be reached even after increasing the sample size to 30. Conclusion: In-clinic validation of new predictive tools with sequential testing approach should be preferred over uncritical adoption of tools which provide no significant benefit to local patient populations. Often the necessary number of patients can be reached within reasonable time frames even in small oncology practices. In addition, validation is performed continuously as the data are collected. (orig.)

  2. Validation of new prognostic and predictive scores by sequential testing approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nieder, Carsten [Radiation Oncology Unit, Nordland Hospital, Bodo (Norway); Inst. of Clinical Medicine, Univ. of Tromso (Norway); Haukland, Ellinor; Pawinski, Adam; Dalhaug, Astrid [Radiation Oncology Unit, Nordland Hospital, Bodo (Norway)

    2010-03-15

    Background and Purpose: For practitioners, the question arises how their own patient population differs from that used in large-scale analyses resulting in new scores and nomograms and whether such tools actually are valid at a local level and thus can be implemented. A recent article proposed an easy-to-use method for the in-clinic validation of new prediction tools with a limited number of patients, a so-called sequential testing approach. The present study evaluates this approach in scores related to radiation oncology. Material and Methods: Three different scores were used, each predicting short overall survival after palliative radiotherapy (bone metastases, brain metastases, metastatic spinal cord compression). For each scenario, a limited number of consecutive patients entered the sequential testing approach. The positive predictive value (PPV) was used for validation of the respective score and it was required that the PPV exceeded 80%. Results: For two scores, validity in the own local patient population could be confirmed after entering 13 and 17 patients, respectively. For the third score, no decision could be reached even after increasing the sample size to 30. Conclusion: In-clinic validation of new predictive tools with sequential testing approach should be preferred over uncritical adoption of tools which provide no significant benefit to local patient populations. Often the necessary number of patients can be reached within reasonable time frames even in small oncology practices. In addition, validation is performed continuously as the data are collected. (orig.)

  3. Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score is Associated With Risk of Recurrence in Bladder Cancer Patients After Radical Cystectomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferro, Matteo; De Cobelli, Ottavio; Buonerba, Carlo; Di Lorenzo, Giuseppe; Capece, Marco; Bruzzese, Dario; Autorino, Riccardo; Bottero, Danilo; Cioffi, Antonio; Matei, Deliu Victor; Caraglia, Michele; Borghesi, Marco; De Berardinis, Ettore; Busetto, Gian Maria; Giovannone, Riccardo; Lucarelli, Giuseppe; Ditonno, Pasquale; Perdonà, Sisto; Bove, Pierluigi; Castaldo, Luigi; Hurle, Rodolfo; Musi, Gennaro; Brescia, Antonio; Olivieri, Michele; Cimmino, Amelia; Altieri, Vincenzo; Damiano, Rocco; Cantiello, Francesco; Serretta, Vincenzo; De Placido, Sabino; Mirone, Vincenzo; Sonpavde, Guru; Terracciano, Daniela

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Recently, many studies explored the role of inflammation parameters in the prognosis of urinary cancers, but the results were not consistent. The modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS), a systemic inflammation marker, is a prognostic marker in various types of cancers. The aim of the present study was to investigate the usefulness of the preoperative mGPS as predictor of recurrence-free (RFS), overall (OS), and cancer-specific (CSS) survivals in a large cohort of urothelial bladder cancer (UBC) patients. A total of 1037 patients with UBC were included in this study with a median follow-up of 22 months (range 3–60 months). An mGPS = 0 was observed in 646 patients (62.3%), mGPS = 1 in 297 patients (28.6 %), and mGPS = 2 in 94 patients (9.1%). In our study cohort, subjects with an mGPS equal to 2 had a significantly shorter median RFS compared with subjects with mGPS equal to 1 (16 vs 19 months, hazard ratio [HR] 1.54, 95% CI 1.31–1.81, P < 0.001) or with subjects with mGPS equal to 0 (16 vs 29 months, HR 2.38, 95% CI 1.86–3.05, P < 0.001). The association between mGPS and RFS was confirmed by weighted multivariate Cox model. Although in univariate analysis higher mGPS was associated with lower OS and CSS, this association disappeared in multivariate analysis where only the presence of lymph node-positive bladder cancer and T4 stage were predictors of worse prognosis for OS and CSS. In conclusion, the mGPS is an easily measured and inexpensive prognostic marker that was significantly associated with RFS in UBC patients. PMID:26496339

  4. Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score is Associated With Risk of Recurrence in Bladder Cancer Patients After Radical Cystectomy: A Multicenter Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferro, Matteo; De Cobelli, Ottavio; Buonerba, Carlo; Di Lorenzo, Giuseppe; Capece, Marco; Bruzzese, Dario; Autorino, Riccardo; Bottero, Danilo; Cioffi, Antonio; Matei, Deliu Victor; Caraglia, Michele; Borghesi, Marco; De Berardinis, Ettore; Busetto, Gian Maria; Giovannone, Riccardo; Lucarelli, Giuseppe; Ditonno, Pasquale; Perdonà, Sisto; Bove, Pierluigi; Castaldo, Luigi; Hurle, Rodolfo; Musi, Gennaro; Brescia, Antonio; Olivieri, Michele; Cimmino, Amelia; Altieri, Vincenzo; Damiano, Rocco; Cantiello, Francesco; Serretta, Vincenzo; De Placido, Sabino; Mirone, Vincenzo; Sonpavde, Guru; Terracciano, Daniela

    2015-10-01

    Recently, many studies explored the role of inflammation parameters in the prognosis of urinary cancers, but the results were not consistent. The modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS), a systemic inflammation marker, is a prognostic marker in various types of cancers. The aim of the present study was to investigate the usefulness of the preoperative mGPS as predictor of recurrence-free (RFS), overall (OS), and cancer-specific (CSS) survivals in a large cohort of urothelial bladder cancer (UBC) patients.A total of 1037 patients with UBC were included in this study with a median follow-up of 22 months (range 3-60 months). An mGPS = 0 was observed in 646 patients (62.3%), mGPS = 1 in 297 patients (28.6 %), and mGPS = 2 in 94 patients (9.1%).In our study cohort, subjects with an mGPS equal to 2 had a significantly shorter median RFS compared with subjects with mGPS equal to 1 (16 vs 19 months, hazard ratio [HR] 1.54, 95% CI 1.31-1.81, P < 0.001) or with subjects with mGPS equal to 0 (16 vs 29 months, HR 2.38, 95% CI 1.86-3.05, P < 0.001). The association between mGPS and RFS was confirmed by weighted multivariate Cox model. Although in univariate analysis higher mGPS was associated with lower OS and CSS, this association disappeared in multivariate analysis where only the presence of lymph node-positive bladder cancer and T4 stage were predictors of worse prognosis for OS and CSS.In conclusion, the mGPS is an easily measured and inexpensive prognostic marker that was significantly associated with RFS in UBC patients.

  5. Usefulness of scoring right ventricular function for assessment of prognostic factors in patients with chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamimura, Yoshihiro; Okumura, Naoki; Adachi, Shiro; Shimokata, Shigetake; Tajima, Fumitaka; Nakano, Yoshihisa; Hirashiki, Akihiro; Murohara, Toyoaki; Kondo, Takahisa

    2018-04-27

    Right ventricular (RV) function is associated with prognosis in chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). This study aimed to establish an RV dysfunction score using RV echocardiographic parameters to clarify the clinical characteristics in patients with CTEPH and to compare RV dysfunction score with parameters such as World Health Organization (WHO) functional class, hemodynamics, exercise capacity, and plasma BNP level. We enrolled 35 inpatients with CTEPH (mean age, 62 ± 15 years, 15 males). We constructed 'an RV dysfunction score' calculated as the summation of each point awarded for the presence of four parameters: tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE)  0.4, 1 point. TAPSE, S', RVFAC, and RV-MPI was 18.7 ± 4.8 mm, 11.9 ± 3.1 cm/s, 33.5 ± 13.9%, and 0.39 ± 0.2, respectively. The RV dysfunction score was associated with symptom [WHO functional class (p = 0.026)], hemodynamics [mean PAP (p = 0.01), cardiac index (p = 0.009), pulmonary vascular resistance (p = 0.001), and SvO 2 (p = 0.039)], exercise capacity [6-min walk distance (p = 0.046), peakVO 2 (p = 0.016), and VE/VCO 2 slope (p = 0.031)], and plasma BNP level (p = 0.005). This RV dysfunction score using the four RV echocardiographic parameters could be a simple and useful scoring system to evaluate prognostic factors in patients with CTEPH.

  6. Wearable PPG sensor based alertness scoring system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Jishnu; Bhowmik, Tanmoy; Sahoo, Saswata; Tiwari, Vijay Narayan

    2017-07-01

    Quantifying mental alertness in today's world is important as it enables the person to adopt lifestyle changes for better work efficiency. Miniaturized sensors in wearable devices have facilitated detection/monitoring of mental alertness. Photoplethysmography (PPG) sensors through Heart Rate Variability (HRV) offer one such opportunity by providing information about one's daily alertness levels without requiring any manual interference from the user. In this paper, a smartwatch based alertness estimation system is proposed. Data collected from PPG sensor of smartwatch is processed and fed to machine learning based model to get a continuous alertness score. Utility functions are designed based on statistical analysis to give a quality score on different stages of alertness such as awake, long sleep and short duration power nap. An intelligent data collection approach is proposed in collaboration with the motion sensor in the smartwatch to reduce battery drainage. Overall, our proposed wearable based system provides a detailed analysis of alertness over a period in a systematic and optimized manner. We were able to achieve an accuracy of 80.1% for sleep/awake classification along with alertness score. This opens up the possibility for quantifying alertness levels using a single PPG sensor for better management of health related activities including sleep.

  7. Prognostic value of Angiographic Perfusion Score (APS) following percutaneous interventions in acute coronary syndromes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narain, V S; Fischer, L; Puri, A; Sethi, R; Dwivedi, S K

    2013-01-01

    Identifying reperfusion and predicting post procedure risk is important following Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCI). An Angiographic Perfusion Score (APS) combining TIMI flow (TFG) and myocardial perfusion (TMPG) grades before and after PCI can accurately measure both epicardial and myocardial perfusion and predict Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE). APS was calculated in 226 (88 ST elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) and 138 Non STEMI) patients. Maximum score being 12, reperfusion was defined as failed: 0-3, partial: 4-9, and full APS: 10-12. Thirty day MACE were observed. APS identified reperfusion significantly more than TMPG alone (STEMI: 50.6% vs 11.8% (p APS group (1.8% vs 22.5%) (p APS detects more low risk reperfused patients, post PCI. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. Electrochemistry-based Battery Modeling for Prognostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Kulkarni, Chetan Shrikant

    2013-01-01

    Batteries are used in a wide variety of applications. In recent years, they have become popular as a source of power for electric vehicles such as cars, unmanned aerial vehicles, and commericial passenger aircraft. In such application domains, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. To implement such technologies, it is crucial to understand how batteries work and to capture that knowledge in the form of models that can be used by monitoring, diagnosis, and prognosis algorithms. In this work, we develop electrochemistry-based models of lithium-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable accuracy for reliable EOD prediction in a variety of usage profiles. This paper reports on the progress of such a model, with results demonstrating the model validity and accurate EOD predictions.

  9. A Physics-Based Modeling Framework for Prognostic Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.

    2014-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) methodologies have emerged as one of the key enablers for achieving efficient system level maintenance as part of a busy operations schedule, and lowering overall life cycle costs. PHM is also emerging as a high-priority issue in critical applications, where the focus is on conducting fundamental research in the field of integrated systems health management. The term diagnostics relates to the ability to detect and isolate faults or failures in a system. Prognostics on the other hand is the process of predicting health condition and remaining useful life based on current state, previous conditions and future operating conditions. PHM methods combine sensing, data collection, interpretation of environmental, operational, and performance related parameters to indicate systems health under its actual application conditions. The development of prognostics methodologies for the electronics field has become more important as more electrical systems are being used to replace traditional systems in several applications in the aeronautics, maritime, and automotive fields. The development of prognostics methods for electronics presents several challenges due to the great variety of components used in a system, a continuous development of new electronics technologies, and a general lack of understanding of how electronics fail. Similarly with electric unmanned aerial vehicles, electrichybrid cars, and commercial passenger aircraft, we are witnessing a drastic increase in the usage of batteries to power vehicles. However, for battery-powered vehicles to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. We develop an electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable

  10. Prognostic and predictive value of the 21-gene recurrence score assay in postmenopausal women with node-positive, oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer on chemotherapy: a retrospective analysis of a randomised trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albain, Kathy S; Barlow, William E; Shak, Steven; Hortobagyi, Gabriel N; Livingston, Robert B; Yeh, I-Tien; Ravdin, Peter; Bugarini, Roberto; Baehner, Frederick L; Davidson, Nancy E; Sledge, George W; Winer, Eric P; Hudis, Clifford; Ingle, James N; Perez, Edith A; Pritchard, Kathleen I; Shepherd, Lois; Gralow, Julie R; Yoshizawa, Carl; Allred, D Craig; Osborne, C Kent; Hayes, Daniel F

    2010-01-01

    The 21-gene recurrence score assay is prognostic for women with node-negative, oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer treated with tamoxifen. A low recurrence score predicts little benefit of chemotherapy. For node-positive breast cancer, we investigated whether the recurrence score was prognostic in women treated with tamoxifen alone and whether it identified those who might not benefit from anthracycline-based chemotherapy, despite higher risks of recurrence. The phase 3 trial SWOG-8814 for postmenopausal women with node-positive, oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer showed that chemotherapy with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, and fluorouracil (CAF) before tamoxifen (CAF-T) added survival benefit to treatment with tamoxifen alone. Optional tumour banking yielded specimens for determination of recurrence score by RT-PCR. In this retrospective analysis, we assessed the effect of recurrence score on disease-free survival by treatment group (tamoxifen vs CAF-T) using Cox regression, adjusting for number of positive nodes. There were 367 specimens (40% of the 927 patients in the tamoxifen and CAF-T groups) with sufficient RNA for analysis (tamoxifen, n=148; CAF-T, n=219). The recurrence score was prognostic in the tamoxifen-alone group (p=0.006; hazard ratio [HR] 2.64, 95% CI 1.33-5.27, for a 50-point difference in recurrence score). There was no benefit of CAF in patients with a low recurrence score (score or =31; log-rank p=0.033; HR 0.59, 0.35-1.01), after adjustment for number of positive nodes. The recurrence score by treatment interaction was significant in the first 5 years (p=0.029), with no additional prediction beyond 5 years (p=0.58), although the cumulative benefit remained at 10 years. Results were similar for overall survival and breast-cancer-specific survival. The recurrence score is prognostic for tamoxifen-treated patients with positive nodes and predicts significant benefit of CAF in tumours with a high recurrence score. A low recurrence

  11. A Discussion on Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms based on Kalman Filter Estimation Applied to Prognostics of Electronics Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Saxen, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management, and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function and the true remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for the two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

  12. Pretreatment Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score Predicts Clinical Outcomes After Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kishi, Takahiro; Matsuo, Yukinori, E-mail: ymatsuo@kuhp.kyoto-u.ac.jp; Ueki, Nami; Iizuka, Yusuke; Nakamura, Akira; Sakanaka, Katsuyuki; Mizowaki, Takashi; Hiraoka, Masahiro

    2015-07-01

    Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who received stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). Methods and Materials: Data from 165 patients who underwent SBRT for stage I NSCLC with histologic confirmation from January 1999 to September 2010 were collected retrospectively. Factors, including age, performance status, histology, Charlson comorbidity index, mGPS, and recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) class based on sex and T stage, were evaluated with regard to overall survival (OS) using the Cox proportional hazards model. The impact of the mGPS on cause of death and failure patterns was also analyzed. Results: The 3-year OS was 57.9%, with a median follow-up time of 3.5 years. A higher mGPS correlated significantly with poor OS (P<.001). The 3-year OS of lower mGPS patients was 66.4%, whereas that of higher mGPS patients was 44.5%. On multivariate analysis, mGPS and RPA class were significant factors for OS. A higher mGPS correlated significantly with lung cancer death (P=.019) and distant metastasis (P=.013). Conclusions: The mGPS was a significant predictor of clinical outcomes for SBRT in NSCLC patients.

  13. Prognostic Performance Evaluation of the International Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis and the Korean Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis Scores in the Early Phase of Trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hong Sug; Lee, Dong Hun; Lee, Byung Kook; Cho, Yong Soo

    2018-01-15

    Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) contributes to poor outcome in the early phase of trauma. We aimed to analyze and compare the prognostic performances of the International Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis (ISTH) and the Korean Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis (KSTH) scores in the early phase of trauma. Receiver operating characteristics analysis was used to examine the prognostic performance of both scores, and multivariate analysis was used to estimate the prognostic impact of the ISTH and KSTH scores in the early phase of trauma. The primary outcome was 24-hour mortality and the secondary outcome was massive transfusion. Of 1,229 patients included in the study, the 24-hour mortality rate was 7.6% (n = 93), and 8.1% (n = 99) of patients who received massive transfusions. The area under the curves (AUCs) of the KSTH and ISTH scores for 24-hour mortality were 0.784 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.760-0.807) and 0.744 (95% CI, 0.718-0.768), respectively. The AUC of KSTH and ISTH scores for massive transfusion were 0.758 (95% CI, 0.734-0.782) and 0.646 (95% CI, 0.619-0.673), respectively. The AUCs of the KSTH score was significantly different from those of the ISTH score. Overt DIC according to KSTH criteria only, was independently associated with 24-hour mortality (odds ratio [OR], 2.630; 95% CI, 1.456-4.752). Only the KSTH score was independently associated with massive transfusion (OR, 1.563; 95% CI, 1.182-2.068). The KSTH score demonstrates a better prognostic performance for outcomes than the ISTH score in the early phase of trauma. © 2018 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

  14. Role of MELD score and serum creatinine as prognostic tools for the development of acute kidney injury after liver transplantation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiago Gomes Romano

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The role of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD score in predicting complications, such as Acute Kidney Injury (AKI, after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT has yet to be evaluated and serum creatinine may be too heavily weighted in the existing MELD formula, since it has many pitfalls in cirrhotic patients. METHODS: Retrospective data of the perioperative period from consecutive adult OLTs performed from January to December 2009 were recorded. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to analyze the risk factors for AKI and mortality after OLT. RESULTS: There were 114 OLTs performed in the study period, 22 (19,2% were submitted to dialysis prior OLT and were excluded from the analysis for AKI. The median age was 52 years and 66% were male. Median creatinine value was 0.85mg/dL and MELD was 19. Fifty-two of the 92 patients (56,5% developed AKI in the first 72 hours after OLT. The only independent risk factor for AKI was calculated MELD and when the components of the MELD score were analyzed, INR had a much stronger impact in predicting AKI then serum creatinine. Overall mortality rate was 32,5% and anesthesia duration was the only variable associated with higher mortality rate. CONCLUSIONS: Although MELD score seems to have a good performance in predicting AKI after OLT, serum creatinine had no impact on its prediction despite its importance on MELD calculation. Modifying the MELD score, which could include novel AKI biomarkers, may improve its prognostic accuracy and provide a better tool for public health planning.

  15. Anti-epidermal or anti-vascular endothelial growth factor as first-line metastatic colorectal cancer in modified Glasgow prognostic score 2' patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dréanic, Johann; Dhooge, Marion; Barret, Maximilien; Brezault, Catherine; Mir, Olivier; Chaussade, Stanislas; Coriat, Romain

    2015-01-01

    Background In metastatic colorectal cancer, the modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS) has been approved as an independent prognostic indicator of survival. No data existed on poor prognosis patients treated with molecular-targeted agents. Methods From January 2007 to February 2012, patients with metastatic colorectal cancer and poor predictive survival score (mGPS = 2), treated with 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy in addition to an anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) or anti-vascular epidermal growth factor (VEGF) therapy, were included to assess the interest of targeted therapy within mGPS = 2' patients. Results A total of 27 mGPS = 2' patients were included and received a 5-fluorouracil-based systemic chemotherapy in addition to an anti-EGFR treatment (cetuximab; n = 18) or an anti-VEGF treatment (bevacizumab; n = 9). Median follow-up was 12.1 months (interquartile range 4.9–22). Patients were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Status 1, 2, and 3 in 66% (n = 18), 26% (n = 7), and 8% (n = 2), respectively. Comparing anti-EGFR and anti-VEGF groups, median progression-free survival was 3.9 and 15.4 months, respectively, and was significantly different (P = 0.046). Conversely, the median overall survival was not significantly different between the two groups (P = 0.15). Conclusion Our study confirmed the poor survival of patients with mGPS = 2 despite the use of targeted therapy and identified the superiority of an anti-VEGF treatment in progression-free survival, without a significant benefit in the overall survival compared with the anti-EGFR therapy. Our results deserved confirmation by a prospective clinical trial. PMID:26401469

  16. Designing a Prognostic Scoring System for Predicting the Outcomes of Proximal Fifth Metatarsal Fractures at 20 Weeks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali Tahririan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Fractures of the proximal fifth metatarsal bone are among the most common fractures observed in the foot and their classification and management has been subject to much discussion and disagreement. In this study, we aim to identify and quantify the effect of possible predictors of the outcome of the treatment of proximal fifth metatarsal fractures. Methods: Patients with established proximal fifth metatarsal fractures were enrolled in this prospective cohort and the outcome of their treatment was assessed using the AOFAS mid foot scale at 6 and 20 weeks. Results: 143 patients were included in the study. Our study showed that displacement, weight and type III fractures were significant independent predictors of poor outcome at 6 weeks while at 20 weeks in addition to these factors, gender and diabetes mellitus were also shown to be significant independent predictors of poor outcome. A scoring system was designed by assigning weight to these factors and it was shown to be a strong predictor of outcome at 20 weeks. Conclusion: We recommend that our scoring system would help surgeons to decide whether patients’ prognostic factors are significant enough for him/her to opt for a surgical approach to treatment rather than a conservative approach.

  17. Application of prognostic score IPSET-thrombosis in patients with essential thrombocythemia of a Brazilian public service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luana Magalhães Navarro

    Full Text Available Summary Introduction: In patients with essential thrombocythemia (ET, the vascular complications contribute to morbidity and mortality. To better predict the occurrence of thrombotic events, an International Prognostic Score for Thrombosis in Essential Thrombocythemia (IPSET-thrombosis has recently been proposed. We present the application of this score and compare its results with the usual classification system. Method: We retrospectively evaluated the characteristics and risk factors for thrombosis of 46 patients with a diagnosis of ET seen in the last 6 years at Faculdade de Medicina do ABC (FMABC. Results: Thrombosis in the arterial territory was more prevalent than in venous sites. We observed that cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, and smoking were also risk factors for thrombosis (p<0.001. Age over 60 years and presence of JAK2 V617F mutation were not associated with the occurrence of thrombotic events. No patient classified by IPSET-thrombosis as low risk had a thrombotic event. Furthermore, using the IPSET-thrombosis scale, we identified two patients who had thrombotic events during follow-up and were otherwise classified in the low-risk group of the traditional classification. Leukocytosis at diagnosis was significantly associated with arterial thrombosis (p=0.02, while splenomegaly was associated with venous thrombotic events (p=0.01. Conclusion: Cardiovascular risk factors and leukocytosis were directly associated with arterial thrombosis. IPSET-thrombosis appears to be better than the traditional classification at identifying lower risk patients who do not need specific therapy.

  18. Development and external validation of a clinical prognostic score for death in visceral leishmaniasis patients in a high HIV co-infection burden area in Ethiopia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Abongomera

    Full Text Available In Ethiopia, case fatality rates among subgroups of visceral leishmaniasis (VL patients are high. A clinical prognostic score for death in VL patients could contribute to optimal management and reduction of these case fatality rates. We aimed to identify predictors of death from VL, and to develop and externally validate a clinical prognostic score for death in VL patients, in a high HIV co-infection burden area in Ethiopia.We conducted a retrospective cohort study in north west Ethiopia. Predictors with an adjusted likelihood ratio ≥1.5 or ≤0.67 were retained to calculate the predictor score. The derivation cohort consisted of 1686 VL patients treated at an upgraded health center and the external validation cohort consisted of 404 VL patients treated in hospital. There were 99 deaths in the derivation cohort and 53 deaths in the external validation cohort. The predictors of death were: age >40 years (score +1; HIV seropositive (score +1; HIV seronegative (score -1; hemoglobin ≤6.5 g/dl (score +1; bleeding (score +1; jaundice (score +1; edema (score +1; ascites (score +2 and tuberculosis (score +1. The total predictor score per patient ranged from -1 to +5. A score of -1, indicated a low risk of death (1.0%, a score of 0 an intermediate risk of death (3.8% and a score of +1 to +5, a high risk of death (10.4-85.7%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.79-0.87 in derivation, and 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.83 in external validation.The overall performance of the score was good. The score can enable the early detection of VL cases at high risk of death, which can inform operational, clinical management guidelines, and VL program management. Implementation of focused strategies could contribute to optimal management and reduction of the case fatality rates.

  19. Evaluation of prognostic differences in elderly patients with pneumonia treated by between pulmonologists and non-pulmonologists: a propensity score analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komiya, Kosaku; Oka, Hiroaki; Ohama, Minoru; Uchida, Masahiro; Miyajima, Hajime; Iwashita, Tomohiko; Okabe, Eiji; Shuto, Osamu; Matsumoto, Taisuke; Ishii, Hiroshi; Kadota, Jun-Ichi

    2016-07-01

    The incidence of pneumonia among elderly people is increasing in aged countries, and both pulmonologists and non-pulmonologists treat such patients. The aim of this study was to assess prognostic differences between elderly patients treated by pulmonologists and those treated by non-pulmonologists. This study was a retrospective cohort using a propensity score analysis. Patients 65 years of age or over with pneumonia were consecutively included. The propensity score was estimated based on the patient's background and severity of pneumonia. The difference in 30-day and 90-day mortality depending on the attending physician's specialty was analyzed after adjusting for other variables, including the propensity score. We assessed 68 and 182 patients treated by pulmonologists and non-pulmonologists, respectively. The pulmonologists tended to be in charge of patients with hypoxemia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or dementia without aspiration pneumonia or renal dysfunction (area under receiver operating characteristic curve to predict treatment by a pulmonologist according to the propensity score = 0.737, P bedridden status (3.000, P = 0.013) and the serum albumin level (0.382, P elderly patients may not necessarily improve, irrespective of treatment by pulmonologists, and host factors seemed to be associated with mortality. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. NCCN-IPI score-independent prognostic potential of pretreatment uric acid levels for clinical outcome of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prochazka, Katharina T; Melchardt, Thomas; Posch, Florian; Schlick, Konstantin; Deutsch, Alexander; Beham-Schmid, Christine; Weiss, Lukas; Gary, Thomas; Neureiter, Daniel; Klieser, Eckhard; Greil, Richard; Neumeister, Peter; Egle, Alexander; Pichler, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Background: Blood-based parameters are gaining increasing interest as potential prognostic biomarkers in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). The aim of this study was to comprehensively evaluate the prognostic significance of pretreatment plasma uric acid levels in patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL. Methods: The clinical course of 539 DLBCL patients, diagnosed and treated between 2004 and 2013 at two Austrian high-volume centres with rituximab-based immunochemotherapy was evaluated retrospectively. The prognostic influence of uric acid on overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were studied including multi-state modelling, and analysis of conditional survival. Results: Five-year OS and PFS were 50.4% (95% CI: 39.2–60.6) and 44.0% (33.4–54.0) in patients with uric acid levels above the 75th percentile of the uric acid distribution (Q3, cut-off: 6.8 mg dl−1), and 66.2% (60.4–71.5) and 59.6% (53.7–65.0%) in patients with lower levels (log-rank P=0.002 and P=0.0045, respectively). In univariable time-to-event analysis, elevated uric acid levels were associated with a worse PFS (hazard ratio (HR) per 1 log increase in uric acid 1.47, 95% CI: 1.10–1.97, P=0.009) and a worse OS (HR=1.60, 95% CI: 1.16–2.19, P=0.004). These associations prevailed upon multivariable adjustment for the NCCN-IPI score. Uric acid levels significantly improved the predictive performance of the R-IPI and NCCN-IPI scores, and in multi-state analysis, it emerged as a highly significant predictor of an increased risk of death without developing recurrence (transition-HR=4.47, 95% CI: 2.17–9.23, Puric acid levels predict poor long-term outcomes in DLBCL patients beyond the NCCN-IPI risk index. PMID:27764838

  1. Prognostic Implication of Functional Incomplete Revascularization and Residual Functional SYNTAX Score in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Ki Hong; Lee, Joo Myung; Koo, Bon-Kwon; Nam, Chang-Wook; Shin, Eun-Seok; Doh, Joon-Hyung; Rhee, Tae-Min; Hwang, Doyeon; Park, Jonghanne; Zhang, Jinlong; Kim, Kyung-Jin; Hu, Xinyang; Wang, Jianan; Ye, Fei; Chen, Shaoliang; Yang, Junqing; Chen, Jiyan; Tanaka, Nobuhiro; Yokoi, Hiroyoshi; Matsuo, Hitoshi; Takashima, Hiroaki; Shiono, Yasutsugu; Akasaka, Takashi

    2018-02-12

    The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic implication of functional incomplete revascularization (IR) and residual functional SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score (rFSS) in comparison with 3-vessel fractional flow reserve (FFR) and residual SYNTAX score. IR is associated with poor clinical outcomes in patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention. A total of 385 patients who underwent 3-vessel FFR measurement after stent implantation were included in this study. The rFSS was defined as residual SYNTAX score measured only in vessels with FFR ≤0.8. The study population was divided into the functional IR group (rFSS ≥1) and the functional complete revascularization (CR) group (rFSS = 0). The primary outcome was major adverse cardiac events (MACEs; a composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, and ischemia-driven revascularization) at 2 years. Functional CR was achieved in 283 patients (73.5%). At 2-year follow-up, the functional IR group showed a significantly higher risk for MACEs (functional IR vs. CR, 14.6% vs. 4.2%; hazard ratio: 4.09; 95% confidence interval: 1.82 to 9.21; p system (rFSS) after stent implantation better discriminated the risk for adverse events than anatomic or physiological assessment alone. (Clinical Implication of 3-Vessel Fractional Flow Reserve [FFR]; NCT01621438). Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. The Glasgow Prognostic Score as a significant predictor of diffuse large B cell lymphoma treated with R-CHOP in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaoyang; Zhang, Yunxiang; Zhao, Weili; Liu, Zhao; Shen, Yang; Li, Junmin; Shen, Zhixiang

    2015-01-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) incorporates C-reactive protein and albumin as clinically useful markers of tumor behavior and shows significant prognostic value in several types of solid tumors. The accuracy of the GPS in predicting outcomes in diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) remains unknown. We performed this study to evaluate the prognostic significance of the GPS in DLBCL in China. We retrospectively analyzed 160 patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL at the Shanghai Ruijin Hospital (China). The prognostic value of the GPS was evaluated and compared with that of the International Prognostic Index (IPI) and immunohistochemical subtyping. The GPS was defined as follows: GPS-0, C-reactive protein (CRP) ≤10 mg/L and albumin ≥35 g/L; GPS-1, CRP >10 mg/L or albumin L; and GPS-2, CRP >10 mg/L and albumin L. Patients with lower GPS tended to have better outcomes including progression-free survival (PFS, P GPS and high IPI score were independent adverse predictors of OS. Similar to several other tumors, GPS is a reliable predictor of survival outcomes in DLBCL patients treated with R-CHOP therapy. Inflammatory responses are implicated in the progression and survival of patients with DLBCL.

  3. Poor prognostic value of the modified Mallampati score: a meta-analysis involving 177 088 patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundstrøm, L H; Vester-Andersen, M; Møller, Ann

    2011-01-01

    searches. The pooled estimates from the meta-analyses were calculated based on a random-effects model and a summary receiver operating curve. Meta-regression analyses were performed to explore sources of possible heterogeneity between the studies. The summary receiver operating curve demonstrated an area...

  4. High-sensitivity modified Glasgow prognostic score (HS-mGPS) Is superior to the mGPS in esophageal cancer patients treated with chemoradiotherapy

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Peng; Fang, Min; Wan, Qiuyan; Zhang, Xuebang; Song, Tao; Wu, Shixiu

    2017-01-01

    The present study compared the prognostic value of the modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS) and high-sensitivity mGPS (HS-mGPS) in unresectable locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcimona (LAESCC) patients treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). The baseline data of 163 eligible patients were retrospectively collected. Patients with a C-reactive protein (CRP) ≤ 10 mg/l and albumin ≥ 35 g/l were allocated to mGPS-0 group. Patients with only elevated CRP (> 10 mg/l) were a...

  5. Short- and Long-Term Prognostic Utility of the HEART Score in Patients Evaluated in the Emergency Department for Possible Acute Coronary Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Tarun; Nowak, Richard; Hudson, Michael; Frisoli, Tiberio; Jacobsen, Gordon; McCord, James

    2016-06-01

    The HEART score is a risk-stratification tool that was developed and validated for patients evaluated for possible acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in the emergency department (ED). We sought to determine the short-term and long-term prognostic utility of the HEART score. A retrospective single-center analysis of 947 patients evaluated for possible ACS in the ED in 1999 was conducted. Patients were followed for major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) at 30 days: death, acute myocardial infarction, or revascularization procedure. All-cause mortality was assessed at 5 years. The HEART score was compared with the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score. At 30 days, 14% (135/947) of patients had an MACE: 48 deaths (5%), 84 acute myocardial infarctions (9%), and 48 (5%) revascularization procedures. The MACE rate in patients with HEART score ≤3 was 0.6% (1/175) involving a revascularization procedure, 9.5% (53/557) in patients with HEART score between 4 and 6, and 38% (81/215) with HEART score ≥7. The C-statistic for the HEART score was 0.82 and 0.68 for the TIMI score for predicting 30-day MACE (P < 0.05). Patients with HEART score ≤3 had lower 5-year mortality rate compared with those with TIMI score of 0 (10.6% vs. 20.5%, P = 0.02). The HEART score is a valuable risk-stratification tool in predicting not only short-term MACE but also long-term mortality in patients evaluated for possible ACS in the ED. The HEART score had a superior prognostic value compared with the TIMI score.

  6. Physics based Degradation Modeling and Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors under Electrical Overstress Conditions

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper proposes a physics based degradation modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors are critical components in...

  7. Prognostics Health Management and Physics based failure Models for Electrolytic Capacitors

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper proposes first principles based modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors and MOSFETs are the two major...

  8. Glycosylation-Based Serum Biomarkers for Cancer Diagnostics and Prognostics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirwan, Alan; Utratna, Marta; O'Dwyer, Michael E; Joshi, Lokesh; Kilcoyne, Michelle

    2015-01-01

    Cancer is the second most common cause of death in developed countries with approximately 14 million newly diagnosed individuals and over 6 million cancer-related deaths in 2012. Many cancers are discovered at a more advanced stage but better survival rates are correlated with earlier detection. Current clinically approved cancer biomarkers are most effective when applied to patients with widespread cancer. Single biomarkers with satisfactory sensitivity and specificity have not been identified for the most common cancers and some biomarkers are ineffective for the detection of early stage cancers. Thus, novel biomarkers with better diagnostic and prognostic performance are required. Aberrant protein glycosylation is well known hallmark of cancer and represents a promising source of potential biomarkers. Glycoproteins enter circulation from tissues or blood cells through active secretion or leakage and patient serum is an attractive option as a source for biomarkers from a clinical and diagnostic perspective. A plethora of technical approaches have been developed to address the challenges of glycosylation structure detection and determination. This review summarises currently utilised glycoprotein biomarkers and novel glycosylation-based biomarkers from the serum glycoproteome under investigation as cancer diagnostics and for monitoring and prognostics and includes details of recent high throughput and other emerging glycoanalytical techniques.

  9. Glasgow Prognostic Score is a predictor of perioperative and long-term outcome in patients with only surgically treated esophageal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vashist, Yogesh K; Loos, Julian; Dedow, Josephine; Tachezy, Michael; Uzunoglu, Guentac; Kutup, Asad; Yekebas, Emre F; Izbicki, Jakob R

    2011-04-01

    Systemic inflammation (SI) plays a pivotal role in cancer. C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin as parameters of SI form the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS). The purpose of the study was to evaluate the potential prognostic role of GPS in a homogeneous population of esophageal cancer (EC) patients undergoing only resection. GPS was evaluated on the basis of admission blood sample taken before surgery. Patients with a CRP L and albumin > 35 g/L were allocated to GPS0 group. If only CRP was increased or albumin decreased patients were allocated to the GPS1 and patients in whom CRP was ≥10 mg/L and albumin level ≤35 g/L were classified as GPS2. GPS was correlated to clinicopathological parameters and clinical outcome. Increasing GPS significantly correlated with more aggressive tumor biology in terms of tumor size (P GPS was identified as an independent prognosticator of perioperative morbidity (odds ratio 1.9; P = 0.03). In addition, a gradual decrease in disease-free and overall survival was evident between the three GPS subgroups. Survival differences between the GPS groups remained apparent even after stratification of the study population to underlying tumor type and nodal status. GPS was identified as a strong prognosticator of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio 2.5; P GPS represents a strong prognosticator of perioperative morbidity and long-term outcome in resected EC patients without neoadjuvant or adjuvant treatment.

  10. Comparison of the prognostic values of preoperative inflammation-based parameters in patients with breast cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hideya Takeuchi

    Full Text Available Peripheral blood-derived inflammation-based markers, including C-reactive protein (CRP, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR are indicators of prognosis in various malignant tumors. The present study aimed to identify the inflammation-based parameters that are most suitable for predicting outcomes in patients with breast cancer. Two hundred ninety-six patients who underwent surgery for localized breast cancer were reviewed retrospectively. The association between clinicopathological factors and inflammation-based parameters were investigated. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic indicators associated with disease-free survival (DFS. The NLR level correlated significantly with tumor size (P<0.05. The PLR level correlated with the expression of estrogen receptor and lymph node involvement (P<0.05. Univariate analysis revealed that lower CRP and PLR values as well as tumor size, lymph node involvement, and nuclear grade were significantly associated with superior DFS (CRP: P<0.01; PLR, tumor size, lymph node involvement, and nuclear grade: P<0.05. On multivariate analysis, CRP (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.85, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-7.88, P<0.05, PLR (HR: 2.61, 95% CI: 1.07-6.36, P<0.05 and nuclear grade (HR: 3.066, 95% CI: 1.26-7.49, P<0.05 were significant prognostic indicators of DFS in patients with breast cancer. Neither LMR nor NLR significantly predicted DFS. Both preoperative CRP and PLR values were independently associated with poor prognosis in patients with breast carcinoma; these were superior to other inflammation-based scores in terms of prognostic ability.

  11. Prognostic impact of nutritional status assessed by the Controlling Nutritional Status score in patients with stable coronary artery disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Hideki; Dohi, Tomotaka; Miyauchi, Katsumi; Doi, Shinichiro; Konishi, Hirokazu; Naito, Ryo; Tsuboi, Shuta; Ogita, Manabu; Kasai, Takatoshi; Okazaki, Shinya; Isoda, Kikuo; Suwa, Satoru; Daida, Hiroyuki

    2017-11-01

    Recently, malnutrition has been shown to be related to worse clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure. However, the association between nutritional status and clinical outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) remains unclear. We investigated the prognostic value of malnutrition assessed by the Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT; range 0-12, higher = worse, consisting of serum albumin, cholesterol and lymphocytes) score in patients with CAD. The CONUT score was measured on admission in a total of 1987 patients with stable CAD who underwent elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) between 2000 and 2011. Patients were divided into two groups according to their CONUT score (0-1 vs. ≥2). The incidence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE), including all-cause death and non-fatal myocardial infarction, was evaluated. The median CONUT score was 1 (interquartile range 0-2). During the median follow-up of 7.4 years, 342 MACE occurred (17.2%). Kaplan-Meier curves revealed that patients with high CONUT scores had higher rates of MACE (log-rank p < 0.0001). High CONUT scores showed a significant increase in the incidence of MACE compared with low CONUT scores, even after adjusting for confounding factors (hazard ratio: 1.64, 95% confidence interval 1.30-2.07, p < 0.0001). Adding CONUT scores to a baseline model with established risk factors improved the C-index (p = 0.02), net reclassification improvement (p = 0.004) and integrated discrimination improvement (p = 0.0003). Nutritional status assessed by the CONUT score was significantly associated with long-term clinical outcomes in patients with CAD. Pre-PCI assessment of the CONUT score may provide useful prognostic information.

  12. Controlling nutritional status score, a promising prognostic marker in patients with gastrointestinal cancers after surgery: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Xu

    2018-05-18

    Controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score has been reported to correlate with gastrointestinal (GI) cancer prognosis, but the results remain inconsistent. This study was to synthetically determine the associations between CONUT score and prognosis in GI cancers. Online databases PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane library, Embase, Google scholar, Wanfang and National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were searched for eligible articles published prior to March 10, 2018. Pooled Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were used to assess the prognostic potential of CONUT score in patients with GI cancers using Stata SE 12.0. A total of 9 articles comprising 2400 patients were included in the analysis. Overall, CONUT score greater than the cutoff predicted poor 5-year overall survival for patients with GI cancers (HR = 2.39, 95% CI: 1.84-2.95, p < 0.001) and 5-year cancer-specific survival (HR: 3.47, 95% CI: 1.75-5.19, p < 0.001). And patients with high CONUT score were at significantly greater risk of relapse/recurrence (HR = 1.64, 95% CI: 1.30-1.98, p < 0.001). CONUT could be a noninvasive prognostic indicator that useful for predicting long-term survival in GI cancer patients after surgery. Copyright © 2018 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Credit Scoring Problem Based on Regression Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Khassawneh, Bashar Suhil Jad Allah

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT: This thesis provides an explanatory introduction to the regression models of data mining and contains basic definitions of key terms in the linear, multiple and logistic regression models. Meanwhile, the aim of this study is to illustrate fitting models for the credit scoring problem using simple linear, multiple linear and logistic regression models and also to analyze the found model functions by statistical tools. Keywords: Data mining, linear regression, logistic regression....

  14. Prognostic value of diffusion-weighted imaging summation scores or apparent diffusion coefficient maps in newborns with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cavalleri, Francesca; Todeschini, Alessandra [Azienda Unita Sanitaria Locale di Modena, Neuroradiology Unit, Department of Neuroscience, Nuovo Ospedale Civile S. Agostino Estense di Modena, Modena (Italy); Lugli, Licia; Pugliese, Marisa; Della Casa, Elisa; Gallo, Claudio; Frassoldati, Rossella; Ferrari, Fabrizio [Modena University Hospital, Institute of Pediatrics and Neonatal Medicine and NICU, Modena (Italy); D' Amico, Roberto [University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Clinical and Diagnostic Medicine and Public Health, Modena (Italy)

    2014-09-15

    The diagnostic and prognostic assessment of newborn infants with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) comprises, among other tools, diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps. To compare the ability of DWI and ADC maps in newborns with HIE to predict the neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years of age. Thirty-four term newborns with HIE admitted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of Modena University Hospital from 2004 to 2008 were consecutively enrolled in the study. All newborns received EEG, conventional MRI and DWI within the first week of life. DWI was analyzed by means of summation (S) score and regional ADC measurements. Neurodevelopmental outcome was assessed with a standard 1-4 scale and the Griffiths Mental Developmental Scales - Revised (GMDS-R). When the outcome was evaluated with a standard 1-4 scale, the DWI S scores showed very high area under the curve (AUC) (0.89) whereas regional ADC measurements in specific subregions had relatively modest predictive value. The lentiform nucleus was the region with the highest AUC (0.78). When GMDS-R were considered, DWI S scores were good to excellent predictors for some GMDS-R subscales. The predictive value of ADC measurements was both region- and subscale-specific. In particular, ADC measurements in some regions (basal ganglia, white matter or rolandic cortex) were excellent predictors for specific GMDS-R with AUCs up to 0.93. DWI S scores showed the highest prognostic value for the neurological outcome at 2 years of age. Regional ADC measurements in specific subregions proved to be highly prognostic for specific neurodevelopmental outcomes. (orig.)

  15. Prognostic value of diffusion-weighted imaging summation scores or apparent diffusion coefficient maps in newborns with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cavalleri, Francesca; Todeschini, Alessandra; Lugli, Licia; Pugliese, Marisa; Della Casa, Elisa; Gallo, Claudio; Frassoldati, Rossella; Ferrari, Fabrizio; D'Amico, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    The diagnostic and prognostic assessment of newborn infants with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) comprises, among other tools, diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps. To compare the ability of DWI and ADC maps in newborns with HIE to predict the neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years of age. Thirty-four term newborns with HIE admitted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of Modena University Hospital from 2004 to 2008 were consecutively enrolled in the study. All newborns received EEG, conventional MRI and DWI within the first week of life. DWI was analyzed by means of summation (S) score and regional ADC measurements. Neurodevelopmental outcome was assessed with a standard 1-4 scale and the Griffiths Mental Developmental Scales - Revised (GMDS-R). When the outcome was evaluated with a standard 1-4 scale, the DWI S scores showed very high area under the curve (AUC) (0.89) whereas regional ADC measurements in specific subregions had relatively modest predictive value. The lentiform nucleus was the region with the highest AUC (0.78). When GMDS-R were considered, DWI S scores were good to excellent predictors for some GMDS-R subscales. The predictive value of ADC measurements was both region- and subscale-specific. In particular, ADC measurements in some regions (basal ganglia, white matter or rolandic cortex) were excellent predictors for specific GMDS-R with AUCs up to 0.93. DWI S scores showed the highest prognostic value for the neurological outcome at 2 years of age. Regional ADC measurements in specific subregions proved to be highly prognostic for specific neurodevelopmental outcomes. (orig.)

  16. Prognostic value of diffusion-weighted imaging summation scores or apparent diffusion coefficient maps in newborns with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalleri, Francesca; Lugli, Licia; Pugliese, Marisa; D'Amico, Roberto; Todeschini, Alessandra; Della Casa, Elisa; Gallo, Claudio; Frassoldati, Rossella; Ferrari, Fabrizio

    2014-09-01

    The diagnostic and prognostic assessment of newborn infants with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) comprises, among other tools, diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps. To compare the ability of DWI and ADC maps in newborns with HIE to predict the neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years of age. Thirty-four term newborns with HIE admitted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of Modena University Hospital from 2004 to 2008 were consecutively enrolled in the study. All newborns received EEG, conventional MRI and DWI within the first week of life. DWI was analyzed by means of summation (S) score and regional ADC measurements. Neurodevelopmental outcome was assessed with a standard 1-4 scale and the Griffiths Mental Developmental Scales - Revised (GMDS-R). When the outcome was evaluated with a standard 1-4 scale, the DWI S scores showed very high area under the curve (AUC) (0.89) whereas regional ADC measurements in specific subregions had relatively modest predictive value. The lentiform nucleus was the region with the highest AUC (0.78). When GMDS-R were considered, DWI S scores were good to excellent predictors for some GMDS-R subscales. The predictive value of ADC measurements was both region- and subscale-specific. In particular, ADC measurements in some regions (basal ganglia, white matter or rolandic cortex) were excellent predictors for specific GMDS-R with AUCs up to 0.93. DWI S scores showed the highest prognostic value for the neurological outcome at 2 years of age. Regional ADC measurements in specific subregions proved to be highly prognostic for specific neurodevelopmental outcomes.

  17. Physics Based Modeling and Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan; Ceyla, Jose R.; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes first principles based modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors have become critical components in electronics systems in aeronautics and other domains. Degradations and faults in DC-DC converter unit propagates to the GPS and navigation subsystems and affects the overall solution. Capacitors and MOSFETs are the two major components, which cause degradations and failures in DC-DC converters. This type of capacitors are known for its low reliability and frequent breakdown on critical systems like power supplies of avionics equipment and electrical drivers of electromechanical actuators of control surfaces. Some of the more prevalent fault effects, such as a ripple voltage surge at the power supply output can cause glitches in the GPS position and velocity output, and this, in turn, if not corrected will propagate and distort the navigation solution. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.

  18. Prognostic value of site SYNTAX score and rationale for combining anatomic and clinical factors in decision making: Insights from the SYNTAX trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Y.-J. Zhang (Yao-Jun); A. Iqbal (Anwarul); C.A.M. Campos (Carlos); D. van Klaveren (David); C.V. Bourantas (Christos); K.D. Dawkins (Keith); A. Banning (Adrian); J. Escaned (Javier); T. de Vries (Ton); M-A.M. Morel (Marie-Angèle); V. Farooq (Vasim); Y. Onuma (Yoshinobu); H.M. Garcia-Garcia (Hector); G.W. Stone (Gregg); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); F.W. Mohr (Friedrich); P.W.J.C. Serruys (Patrick)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractBackground The results of SYNTAX trial have been reported based on "corelab" calculated SS (cSS). It has been shown that reproducibility of SS is better among the core laboratory technicians than interventional cardiologists. Thus, the prognostic value and clinical implication of the

  19. Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D

    2015-03-01

    Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

  20. Prognostic factors in Chinese patients with prostate cancer receiving primary androgen deprivation therapy: validation of Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (J-CAPRA) score and impacts of pre-existing obesity and diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Meng-Bo; Yang, Tian; Hu, Ji-Meng; Zhu, Wen-Hui; Jiang, Hao-Wen; Ding, Qiang

    2018-06-01

    Our aim was to determine the prognostic factors in Chinese patients with prostate cancer receiving primary androgen deprivation therapy (PADT), validate the Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (J-CAPRA) score, and investigate the impacts of pre-existing obesity and diabetes mellitus (DM). The study enrolled Chinese patients diagnosed with prostatic adenocarcinoma and treated with bilateral orchiectomy as PADT at Huashan Hospital, Fudan University (Shanghai, China), from January 2003 to December 2015. The overall survival (OS) and prognostic value of J-CAPRA score, pre-existing obesity, DM, and various clinicopathological variables were analyzed. Of the 435 patients enrolled, 174 (40.0%) deaths occurred during follow-up; 3- and 5-year OS were 74.0 and 58.9%, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified that higher Gleason score and metastasis were both correlated with worse OS and that higher J-CAPRA score was correlated with worse OS [hazard ratio (HR) 1.110, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.035-1.190, P = 0.003). Different risk categories based on J-CAPRA score showed good stratification in OS (log-rank P = 0.015). In subgroup analysis, pre-existing obesity as a protective factor in younger patients (age ≤ 65, HR 0.271, 95% CI 0.075-0.980, P = 0.046) and pre-existing DM as a risk factor in older patients (> 75, HR 1.854, 95% CI 1.026-3.351, P = 0.041) for OS were recognized, and the prediction accuracy of J-CAPRA was elevated after incorporating pre-existing obesity and DM. The J-CAPRA score presented with good OS differentiation among Chinese patients under PADT. Younger patients (age ≤ 65) had better OS with pre-existing obesity, while older patients (age > 75) had worse OS with pre-existing DM.

  1. Predictive accuracy of model for end stage liver disease (meld) as a prognostic marker for cirrhosis in comparison with child - pugh score

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zubair, U.B.; Alam, M.M.; Saeed, F.

    2015-01-01

    To compare Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Turcott-Pugh (CTG) scoring as predictors of survival in cirrhotic patients. Study Design: Observational prospective study. Place and Duration of Study: Military Hospital, Rawalpindi from 1st Dec 2008 to 30th April 2009. Material and Methods: The study was carried out at Military Hospital, Rawalpindi a tertiary care hospital of Pakistan. Study included 55 patients suffering from cirrhosis of both genders being above 12 years of age, admitted in medical wards during the period from 1st December, 2008 to 30th April 2009. Each patient was assigned a MELD and CTP score. On discharge, these patients were followed up at 03 months, 06 months and 1 year duration through telephone. Results: Thirty seven (67.3%) patients were male while 18 (32.7%) were female patients, with age ranging from 27 years to 75 years (mean 53). Fourteen (25.4%) patients were dead at 3-months, 22 patients (40%) were dead at 6-months and 29 (52.7%) patients were dead at 1 year follow up. MELD score proved to be a better indicator of survival than CTP score over a period of 01 year follow-up. Conclusion: MELD score is a better prognostic marker for cirrhotic patients as compared to CTP score. (author)

  2. [Determination of prognostic value of the OESIL risk score at 6 months in a Colombian cohort with syncope evaluated in the emergency department; first Latin American experience].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz-Tribaldos, Diana Carolina; Mora, Guillermo; Olaya, Alejandro; Marín, Jorge; Sierra Matamoros, Fabio

    2017-07-14

    To establish the prognostic value, with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for the OESIL syncope risk score to predict the presentation of severe outcomes (death, invasive interventions, and readmission) after 6 months of observation in adults who consulted the emergency department due to syncope. Observational, prospective, and multicentre study with enrolment of subjects older than 18 years, who consulted in the emergency department due to syncope. A record was mad of the demographic and clinical information of all patients. The OESIL risk score was calculated, and severe patient outcomes were followed up during a 6 month period using telephone contact. A total of 161 patients met the inclusion criteria and were followed up for 6 months. A score above or equal to 2 in the risk score, classified as high risk, was present in 72% of the patients. The characteristics of the risk score to predict the combined outcome of mortality, invasive interventions, and readmission for a score above or equal to 2 were 75.7, 30.5, 43.1, and 64.4% for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value, respectively. A score above or equal to 2 in the OESIL risk score applied in Colombian population was of limited use to predict the studied severe outcomes. This score will be unable to discriminate between patients that benefit of early admission and further clinical studies. Copyright © 2017 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  3. A STUDY OF SILVER STAINING NUCLEOLAR ORGANISING REGIONS AGNOR SCORE AS PROGNOSTIC MARKER IN BREAST LESIONS IN A TERTIARY CARE HOSPITAL IN HYDERABAD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhavani Shankar Nithyananda

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Nucleolar Organising Regions (NORS are segments of DNA closely associated with nucleolus, which code for ribosomal DNA consisting of non-histone proteins, which are argyrophilic. They are demonstrated as black, brown spots on staining with silver colloidal staining technique. Hence, they are called AgNORs. The assessment of AgNORs correlates with rate of proliferation, cell cycle time, since shorter the cell cycle, greater the ribosomal activity and protein synthesis higher AgNOR count. 1 AgNORs have been studied on NHL, GIT neoplasms, skin, gynaecological neoplasms, pulmonary neoplasms, prostate, bladder and breast cancer. In breast cancer, AgNOR can be used for early detection, grading and staging of disease. In this study, we have tried to correlate AgNOR character to morphological prognostic markers. MATERIALS AND METHODS A total of 159 cases presenting with lump in the breast were included in the study. Specimens were subjected to histopathological examination. Sections cut three micron thickness were stained for AgNOR with silver colloidal AgNOR staining technique. AgNOR count was done on both benign and malignant lesions. RESULTS Benign breast lesions were more common compared to malignant lesions. The age of the patients ranged from 15-79 yrs. The mean age for benign lesions was 31 yrs. and for malignant lesions 43 yrs. The most common benign lesion was fibroadenoma and most common malignant lesion was infiltrating ductal carcinoma. AgNOR spots were seen as black/brown spots. AgNOR score was higher in malignant lesions when compared to benign lesions. Among malignant lesions, AgNOR score was found to be higher in high grade, metastatic tumours. CONCLUSION AgNOR count is a useful technique, which can supplement other prognostic markers like Ki-67, mitotic index. A long follow up study is required to confirm the prognostic utility of AgNOR count done in this study

  4. Comorbidity and Karnofksy performance score are independent prognostic factors in stage III non-small-cell lung cancer: an institutional analysis of patients treated on four RTOG studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firat, Selim; Byhardt, Roger W.; Gore, Elizabeth

    2002-01-01

    Purpose: To determine the prognostic role of comorbidity in Stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated definitively with radiotherapy alone. Methods and Materials: A total of 112 patients with clinical Stage III NSCLC (American Joint Commission on Cancer 1997) enrolled in four Radiation Therapy Oncology Group studies (83-11, 84-03, 84-07, and 88-08 nonchemotherapy arms) at a single institution were analyzed retrospectively for overall survival (OS) and comorbidity. Of the 112 patients, 105 (94%) completed their assigned radiotherapy. The median assigned dose was 50.4 Gy to the lymphatics (range 45-50.4 Gy) and 70.2 Gy to the primary tumor (range 60-79.2 Gy). Comorbidity was rated retrospectively using the Cumulative Illness Rating Scale for Geriatrics (CIRS-G) and Charlson scales. Karnofsky performance scores (KPSs) and weight loss were prospectively recorded. Because only 8 patients had a KPS of 70). Results: The median survival was 10.39 months (range 7.87-12.91). The 2-, 3-, and 5-year OS rate was 20.5%, 12.5%, and 7.1%, respectively. On univariate analysis, clinical stage (IIIA vs. IIIB) was found to be a statistically significant factor influencing OS (p=0.026), and the histologic features, grade, tumor size as measured on CT scans, age, tobacco use, weight loss ≥5%, and total dose delivered to the primary tumor were not. A KPS of ≤70 (p=0.001), the presence of a CIRS-G score of 4 (extremely severe; p=0.0002), and a severity index of >2 (p 2 were independently associated with inferior OS; clinical tumor stage was not found to be an independent prognostic factor. Conclusion: KPS and comorbidity are important independent prognostic factors in Stage III NSCLC. Comorbidity should be included in protocols studying advanced stage NSCLC and used for stratification

  5. Early onset hyperuricemia is a prognostic marker for kidney graft failure: Propensity score matching analysis in a Korean multicenter cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miyeun Han

    Full Text Available It remains inconclusive whether hyperuricemia is a true risk factor for kidney graft failure. In the current study, we investigated the association of hyperuricemia and graft outcome. We performed a multi-center cohort study that included 2620 kidney transplant recipients. The patients were classified as either normouricemic or hyperuricemic at 3 months after transplantation. Hyperuricemia was defined as a serum uric acid level ≥ 7.0 mg/dL in males or ≥ 6.0 mg/dL in females or based on the use of urate-lowering medications. The two groups were compared before and after propensity score matching. A total of 657 (25.1% patients were classified as hyperuricemic. The proportion of hyperuricemic patients increased over time, reaching 44.2% of the total cohort at 5 years after transplantation. Estimated glomerular filtration rate and donor type were independently associated with hyperuricemia. Hyperuricemia was associated with graft loss according to multiple Cox regression analysis before propensity score matching (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.14-2.13, P = 0.005 as well as after matching (HR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.13-2.42, p = 0.010. Cox regression models using time-varying hyperuricemia or marginal structural models adjusted with time-varying eGFR also demonstrated significant hazards of hyperuricemia for graft loss. Cardiovascular events and recipient survival were not associated with hyperuricemia. Overall, hyperuricemia, especially early onset after transplantation, showed an increased risk for graft failure. Further studies are warranted to determine whether lowering serum uric acid levels would be beneficial to graft survival.

  6. Association between value-based purchasing score and hospital characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borah Bijan J

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Medicare hospital Value-based purchasing (VBP program that links Medicare payments to quality of care will become effective from 2013. It is unclear whether specific hospital characteristics are associated with a hospital’s VBP score, and consequently incentive payments. The objective of the study was to assess the association of hospital characteristics with (i the mean VBP score, and (ii specific percentiles of the VBP score distribution. The secondary objective was to quantify the associations of hospital characteristics with the VBP score components: clinical process of care (CPC score and patient satisfaction score. Methods Observational analysis that used data from three sources: Medicare Hospital Compare Database, American Hospital Association 2010 Annual Survey and Medicare Impact File. The final study sample included 2,491 U.S. acute care hospitals eligible for the VBP program. The association of hospital characteristics with the mean VBP score and specific VBP score percentiles were assessed by ordinary least square (OLS regression and quantile regression (QR, respectively. Results VBP score had substantial variations, with mean score of 30 and 60 in the first and fourth quartiles of the VBP score distribution. For-profit status (vs. non-profit, smaller bed size (vs. 100–199 beds, East South Central region (vs. New England region and the report of specific CPC measures (discharge instructions, timely provision of antibiotics and beta blockers, and serum glucose controls in cardiac surgery patients were positively associated with mean VBP scores (p Conclusions Although hospitals serving the poor and the elderly are more likely to score lower under the VBP program, the correlation appears small. Profit status, geographic regions, number and type of CPC measures reported explain the most variation among scores.

  7. Comparison of Duke ergo-metric score and of the classification based on scintigraphic data in the stratification of coronaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouhayoun, E.; Coca, F.J.; Payoux, P.; Tafani, J.A.M.; Esquerre, J.P.

    1997-01-01

    Stratification of risk (sudden death and infarction) remains a major problem of the way the coronaries are cared. Since 1987, a score based on the test-to-effort data was proposed by Mark and coll. of 'Duke University' team. They tried to demonstrate that this score provides a reliable classification of patients. We have compared the results obtained by using this score with those issued from the simultaneous analysis of the left ventricle (LV) function and LV perfusion. A hundred patients afflicted with coronaries (stenoses > 50%) benefited by a coupled study of the LV function and perfusion at rest and under effort made by means of MIBI scintigraphy. The effort test allowed calculating the 'Duke' score by means of a formula in terms of the angor index defined as follows: 0 for absence, 1 for angor and 2 for angor motivating cessation. According to Duke score three classes can be defined: patients of low risk, score ≥ 5; patients of intermediate risk, score in between 5 and -10; patients of high risk, score ≤ -10. Ejection fraction at effort acme was measured in every patient as well as the extension of perfusion defect, evaluated semi-quantitatively at effort and rest on the basis of bull's eye. Three groups of patients were created according to the results of perfusion+function couple): (A)- normal perfusion and function, the case of good prognostication; (B)- patients slightly afflicted (FEV effort > 50% and in-effort defect extension effort 50%). The last criteria were proved by several studies as bad prognostication. A table presents the risks according the Duke score for the three classes. One can observe that one third of the patients severely afflicted by confirmed ischemia are classified in the low-risk class. Besides, the majority of patients are ranked with intermediary risk, independently of scintigraphic results. In conclusion, these results concerning the stratification of coronaries show the superiority of the criteria based on scintigraphy over

  8. A continuous and prognostic convection scheme based on buoyancy, PCMT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guérémy, Jean-François; Piriou, Jean-Marcel

    2016-04-01

    A new and consistent convection scheme (PCMT: Prognostic Condensates Microphysics and Transport), providing a continuous and prognostic treatment of this atmospheric process, is described. The main concept ensuring the consistency of the whole system is the buoyancy, key element of any vertical motion. The buoyancy constitutes the forcing term of the convective vertical velocity, which is then used to define the triggering condition, the mass flux, and the rates of entrainment-detrainment. The buoyancy is also used in its vertically integrated form (CAPE) to determine the closure condition. The continuous treatment of convection, from dry thermals to deep precipitating convection, is achieved with the help of a continuous formulation of the entrainment-detrainment rates (depending on the convective vertical velocity) and of the CAPE relaxation time (depending on the convective over-turning time). The convective tendencies are directly expressed in terms of condensation and transport. Finally, the convective vertical velocity and condensates are fully prognostic, the latter being treated using the same microphysics scheme as for the resolved condensates but considering the convective environment. A Single Column Model (SCM) validation of this scheme is shown, allowing detailed comparisons with observed and explicitly simulated data. Four cases covering the convective spectrum are considered: over ocean, sensitivity to environmental moisture (S. Derbyshire) non precipitating shallow convection to deep precipitating convection, trade wind shallow convection (BOMEX) and strato-cumulus (FIRE), together with an entire continental diurnal cycle of convection (ARM). The emphasis is put on the characteristics of the scheme which enable a continuous treatment of convection. Then, a 3D LAM validation is presented considering an AMMA case with both observations and a CRM simulation using the same initial and lateral conditions as for the parameterized one. Finally, global

  9. Validation of prognostic scores to predict short-term mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Do Seon; Kim, Tae Yeob; Kim, Dong Joon; Kim, Hee Yeon; Sinn, Dong Hyun; Yoon, Eileen L; Kim, Chang Wook; Jung, Young Kul; Suk, Ki Tae; Lee, Sang Soo; Lee, Chang Hyeong; Kim, Tae Hun; Choe, Won Hyeok; Yim, Hyung Joon; Kim, Sung Eun; Baik, Soon Koo; Jang, Jae Young; Kim, Hyoung Su; Kim, Sang Gyune; Yang, Jin Mo; Sohn, Joo Hyun; Choi, Eun Hee; Cho, Hyun Chin; Jeong, Soung Won; Kim, Moon Young

    2018-04-01

    The aim of this study was to validate the chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment score (CLIF-SOFAs), CLIF consortium organ failure score (CLIF-C OFs), CLIF-C acute-on-chronic liver failure score (CLIF-C ACLFs), and CLIF-C acute decompensation score in Korean chronic liver disease patients with acute deterioration. Acute-on-chronic liver failure was defined by either the Asian Pacific Association for the study of the Liver ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) or CLIF-C criteria. The diagnostic performances for short-term mortality were compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Among a total of 1470 patients, 252 patients were diagnosed with ACLF according to the CLIF-C (197 patients) or AARC definition (95 patients). As the ACLF grades increased, the survival rates became significantly lower. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic of the CLIF-SOFAs, CLIF-C OFs, and CLIF-C ACLFs were significantly higher than those of the Child-Pugh, model for end-stage liver disease, and model for end-stage liver disease-Na scores in ACLF patients according to the CLIF-C definition (all P < 0.05), but there were no significant differences in patients without ACLF or in patients with ACLF according to the AARC definition. The CLIF-SOFAs, CLIF-C OFs, and CLIF-C ACLFs had higher specificities with a fixed sensitivity than liver specific scores in ACLF patients according to the CLIF-C definition, but not in ACLF patients according to the AARC definition. The CLIF-SOFAs, CLIF-C OFs, and CLIF-C ACLFs are useful scoring systems that provide accurate information on prognosis in patients with ACLF according to the CLIF-C definition, but not the AARC definition. © 2017 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  10. The Glasgow Prognostic Score at the Time of Palliative Esophageal Stent Insertion is a Predictive Factor of 30-Day Mortality and Overall Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driver, Robert J; Handforth, Catherine; Radhakrishna, Ganesh; Bennett, Michael I; Ford, Alexander C; Everett, Simon M

    2018-03-01

    Optimizing the timing of esophageal stent insertion is a challenge, partly due to difficulty predicting survival in advanced malignancy. The Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) is a validated tool for predicting survival in a number of cancers. To assess the utility of the GPS in predicting 30-day mortality and overall survival postesophageal stent insertion. Patients at a tertiary referral center who had received an esophageal stent for palliation of dysphagia were included if they had a measurement of albumin and C-reactive protein (CRP) in the week preceding the procedure (n=209). Patients with both an elevated CRP (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (L) were given a GPS score of 2 (GPS2). Patients with only one of these abnormalities were assigned as GPS1 and those with normal CRP and albumin were assigned as GPS0. Clinical and pathologic parameters were also collected to assess for potential confounding factors in the survival analysis. Increasing GPS was associated with 30-day mortality; for patients with GPS0, 30-day mortality was 5% (2/43), for GPS1 it was 23% (26/114), and for GPS2 it was 33% (17/52). The adjusted hazard ratio for overall poststent mortality was 1.6 (95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.4; P=0.02) for GPS1 and 2.4 (95% confidence interval, 1.5-3.8; PGPS2 patients compared with GPS0. GPS is an independent prognostic factor of 30-day mortality and overall survival after esophageal stent insertion. It is a potential adjunct to clinical assessment in identifying those patients at high-risk of short-term mortality poststent.

  11. Prognostics and health management system for hydropower plant based on fog computing and docker container

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Jian; Zhang, Mingqiang; Tian, Haiping; Huang, Bo; Fu, Wenlong

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a novel prognostics and health management system architecture for hydropower plant equipment was proposed based on fog computing and Docker container. We employed the fog node to improve the real-time processing ability of improving the cloud architecture-based prognostics and health management system and overcome the problems of long delay time, network congestion and so on. Then Storm-based stream processing of fog node was present and could calculate the health index in the edge of network. Moreover, the distributed micros-service and Docker container architecture of hydropower plants equipment prognostics and health management was also proposed. Using the micro service architecture proposed in this paper, the hydropower unit can achieve the goal of the business intercommunication and seamless integration of different equipment and different manufacturers. Finally a real application case is given in this paper.

  12. Mathematical Frameworks for Diagnostics, Prognostics and Condition Based Maintenance Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-08-15

    frequency than its less constrained counterpart. This phenomenon is similar to the effect seen when tightening a guitar string. A tighter string vibrates...English speaking countries are required to have a minimum score of 500 on the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL). Unconditional Admission...have passed the National Council of Examiners for Engineering and Surveying (NCEES) Fundamentals of Engineering Examination, and • Minimum GRE scores

  13. [Preoperative evaluation of surgery for intractable aspiration based on the prognostic nutritional index].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uchida, Masaya; Hashimoto, Keiko; Mukudai, Shigeyuki; Ushijima, Chihisa; Dejima, Kenji

    2014-12-01

    Because there is no absolute indicator of the nutritional status and prognosis in patients with severe aspiration problems, it is quite difficult to arrive at a true long-time prognosis. By performing surgery for intractable aspiration on such patients, both the prognosis and QOL of the patients could be expected to improve. In our department, we have experienced patients dying within 6 months after surgery. In these cases, the patient's preoperative nutritional status was not good. Therefore, we consider that, when we adopt this procedure, there should be some indicators we should use which could have an effect on the prognosis of such nutritionally-challenged patients. In patients who underwent surgery for intractable aspiration; we examined the relationship between their survival and the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) which is an indicator of the risk of complications such as post-operative events in the surgical field. We investigated the relationship between the prognosis and the postoperative indicators of each of the following: WBC, CRP, serum albumin level, and PNI. Out of a total of 31 cases, the average O-PNI of eight cases in which death occurred was 29.45, and the average of six cases in which death occurred within 6 months after surgery was 28.26. The average O-PNI of the survivors was 36.01. A significant association was noted between the early postoperative deaths and some of the four indicators namely that serum albumin level and O-PNI. Based on the ROC curve, the O-PNI offered higher precision than the albumin level. The cut-off value of the O-PNI value for early postoperative mortality rate was 32. The early postoperative mortality rate was 44.4% in patients with less than 32 O-PNI in the preoperative examination, but if it were O-PNI 32 or more, the early postoperative mortality rate was 9.1%, significantly lower. Therefore, O-PNI could be useful as one of the prognostic evaluation factors in the case of preoperative surgery for intractable

  14. Ultrasound-based scores as predictors for nodular hyperplasia in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism: a prospective validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gwiasda, Jill; Kaltenborn, Alexander; Müller, Jörg A; Serttas, Michaela; Scheumann, Georg W F; Schrem, Harald; Jäger, Mark D

    2017-03-01

    Former studies evaluated echostructural and vascular patterns in ultrasound of the parathyroid gland to identify nodular hyperplasia in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism due to chronic kidney disease. This prospective study aims to externally validate suggested ultrasound classifications. Parathyroid glands of 27 patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism undergoing parathyroidectomy were prospectively analyzed. Ultrasound including Doppler imaging was performed 1 day prior to surgery. Ultrasound data were available for 70 parathyroid glands. Echostructural and vascular scores according to previous studies were applied calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Overall correctness, sensitivity, and specificity of the investigated scores were assessed with the Youden index method. The Doppler score introduced by Vulpio and colleagues based on characteristic blood flow patterns in parathyroid glands showed an AUROC of 0.749 for the prediction of nodular hyperplasia with an overall correctness of 72.8%. Other ultrasound classifications based on blood flow patterns, as well as echostructure of the parathyroid gland displayed AUROCs of secondary hyperparathyroidism was externally validated for the first time. Other ultrasound scores fail as prognostic models in this study population. Doppler sonography of the parathyroid gland has prognostic capability to identify nodular hyperplasia as surrogate marker for patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism indicating the need for ablative or surgical treatment when failing conservative therapy.

  15. Prognostic relevance of motor talent predictors in early adolescence: A group- and individual-based evaluation considering different levels of achievement in youth football.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höner, Oliver; Votteler, Andreas

    2016-12-01

    In the debate about the usefulness of motor diagnostics in the talent identification process, the prognostic validity for tests conducted in early adolescence is of critical interest. Using a group- and individual-based statistical approach, this prospective cohort study evaluated a nationwide assessment of speed abilities and technical skills regarding its relevance for future achievement levels. The sample consisted of 22,843 U12-players belonging to the top 4% in German football. The U12-results in five tests served as predictors for players' selection levels in U16-U19 (youth national team, regional association, youth academy, not selected). Group-mean differences proved the prognostic relevance for all predictors. Low individual selection probabilities demonstrated limited predictive values, while excellent test results proved their particular prognostic relevance. Players scoring percentile ranks (PRs) ≥ 99 had a 12 times higher chance to become youth national team players than players scoring PR talents) but also led to lower sensitivity (loss of talents). Extending the current research, these different approaches revealed the ambiguity of the diagnostics' prognostic relevance, representing both the usefulness and several pitfalls of nationwide diagnostics. Therefore, the present diagnostics can support but not substitute for coaches' subjective decisions for talent identification, and multidisciplinary designs are required.

  16. Answer Extraction Based on Merging Score Strategy of Hot Terms

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LE Juan; ZHANG Chunxia; NIU Zhendong

    2016-01-01

    Answer extraction (AE) is one of the key technologies in developing the open domain Question&an-swer (Q&A) system . Its task is to yield the highest score to the expected answer based on an effective answer score strategy. We introduce an answer extraction method by Merging score strategy (MSS) based on hot terms. The hot terms are defined according to their lexical and syn-tactic features to highlight the role of the question terms. To cope with the syntactic diversities of the corpus, we propose four improved candidate answer score algorithms. Each of them is based on the lexical function of hot terms and their syntactic relationships with the candidate an-swers. Two independent corpus score algorithms are pro-posed to tap the role of the corpus in ranking the candi-date answers. Six algorithms are adopted in MSS to tap the complementary action among the corpus, the candi-date answers and the questions. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

  17. Do two machine-learning based prognostic signatures for breast cancer capture the same biological processes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drier, Yotam; Domany, Eytan

    2011-03-14

    The fact that there is very little if any overlap between the genes of different prognostic signatures for early-discovery breast cancer is well documented. The reasons for this apparent discrepancy have been explained by the limits of simple machine-learning identification and ranking techniques, and the biological relevance and meaning of the prognostic gene lists was questioned. Subsequently, proponents of the prognostic gene lists claimed that different lists do capture similar underlying biological processes and pathways. The present study places under scrutiny the validity of this claim, for two important gene lists that are at the focus of current large-scale validation efforts. We performed careful enrichment analysis, controlling the effects of multiple testing in a manner which takes into account the nested dependent structure of gene ontologies. In contradiction to several previous publications, we find that the only biological process or pathway for which statistically significant concordance can be claimed is cell proliferation, a process whose relevance and prognostic value was well known long before gene expression profiling. We found that the claims reported by others, of wider concordance between the biological processes captured by the two prognostic signatures studied, were found either to be lacking statistical rigor or were in fact based on addressing some other question.

  18. Do two machine-learning based prognostic signatures for breast cancer capture the same biological processes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yotam Drier

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The fact that there is very little if any overlap between the genes of different prognostic signatures for early-discovery breast cancer is well documented. The reasons for this apparent discrepancy have been explained by the limits of simple machine-learning identification and ranking techniques, and the biological relevance and meaning of the prognostic gene lists was questioned. Subsequently, proponents of the prognostic gene lists claimed that different lists do capture similar underlying biological processes and pathways. The present study places under scrutiny the validity of this claim, for two important gene lists that are at the focus of current large-scale validation efforts. We performed careful enrichment analysis, controlling the effects of multiple testing in a manner which takes into account the nested dependent structure of gene ontologies. In contradiction to several previous publications, we find that the only biological process or pathway for which statistically significant concordance can be claimed is cell proliferation, a process whose relevance and prognostic value was well known long before gene expression profiling. We found that the claims reported by others, of wider concordance between the biological processes captured by the two prognostic signatures studied, were found either to be lacking statistical rigor or were in fact based on addressing some other question.

  19. A clinically based prognostic index for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma with a cut-off at 70 years of age significantly improves prognostic stratification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gang, Anne O.; Pedersen, Michael; d'Amore, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    The introduction of rituximab and generally improved health among elderly patients have increased the survival of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). The International Prognostic Index (IPI) from 1992 is based on pre-rituximab data from clinical trials including several lymphoma ...... dehydrogenase (LDH), stage and albumin level, and (2) a separate age-adjusted DLBCL-PI for patients 1 extranodal lesion, however excluding stage....... subtypes. We applied IPI factors to a population-based rituximab-treated cohort of 1990 patients diagnosed 2000-2010 and explored new factors and the optimal prognostic age cut-off for DLBCL. Multivariate-analyses (MVA) confirmed the prognostic value of all IPI factors except the presence of > 1 extranodal...... lesion. The optimal age cut-off was 70 years. In a MVA of albumin, lymphocyte count, sex, immunoglobulin G, bulky disease, hemoglobin and B-symptoms, only albumin was prognostic. We propose: (1) a modified DLBCL prognostic index (DLBCL-PI) including: age (70 years), performance status (PS), lactate...

  20. dBBQs: dataBase of Bacterial Quality scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanchai, Visanu; Patumcharoenpol, Preecha; Nookaew, Intawat; Ussery, David

    2017-12-28

    It is well-known that genome sequencing technologies are becoming significantly cheaper and faster. As a result of this, the exponential growth in sequencing data in public databases allows us to explore ever growing large collections of genome sequences. However, it is less known that the majority of available sequenced genome sequences in public databases are not complete, drafts of varying qualities. We have calculated quality scores for around 100,000 bacterial genomes from all major genome repositories and put them in a fast and easy-to-use database. Prokaryotic genomic data from all sources were collected and combined to make a non-redundant set of bacterial genomes. The genome quality score for each was calculated by four different measurements: assembly quality, number of rRNA and tRNA genes, and the occurrence of conserved functional domains. The dataBase of Bacterial Quality scores (dBBQs) was designed to store and retrieve quality scores. It offers fast searching and download features which the result can be used for further analysis. In addition, the search results are shown in interactive JavaScript chart framework using DC.js. The analysis of quality scores across major public genome databases find that around 68% of the genomes are of acceptable quality for many uses. dBBQs (available at http://arc-gem.uams.edu/dbbqs ) provides genome quality scores for all available prokaryotic genome sequences with a user-friendly Web-interface. These scores can be used as cut-offs to get a high-quality set of genomes for testing bioinformatics tools or improving the analysis. Moreover, all data of the four measurements that were combined to make the quality score for each genome, which can potentially be used for further analysis. dBBQs will be updated regularly and is freely use for non-commercial purpose.

  1. An inflammation based score can optimize the selection of patients with advanced cancer considered for early phase clinical trials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J Pinato

    Full Text Available Adequate organ function and good performance status (PS are common eligibility criteria for phase I trials. As inflammation is pathogenic and prognostic in cancer we investigated the prognostic performance of inflammation-based indices including the neutrophil (NLR and platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR.We studied inflammatory scores in 118 unselected referrals. NLR normalization was recalculated at disease reassessment. Each variable was assessed for progression-free (PFS and overall survival (OS on uni- and multivariate analyses and tested for 90 days survival (90DS prediction using receiving operator curves (ROC.We included 118 patients with median OS 4.4 months, 23% PS>1. LDH≥450 and NLR≥5 were multivariate predictors of OS (p<0.001. NLR normalization predicted for longer OS (p<0.001 and PFS (p<0.05. PS and NLR ranked as most accurate predictors of both 90DS with area under ROC values of 0.66 and 0.64, and OS with c-score of 0.69 and 0.60. The combination of NLR+PS increased prognostic accuracy to 0.72. The NLR was externally validated in a cohort of 126 subjects.We identified the NLR as a validated and objective index to improve patient selection for experimental therapies, with its normalization following treatment predicting for a survival benefit of 7 months. Prospective validation of the NLR is warranted.

  2. Prognostics of Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Wavelet Denoising and DE-RVM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chaolong; He, Yigang; Yuan, Lifeng; Xiang, Sheng; Wang, Jinping

    2015-01-01

    Lithium-ion batteries are widely used in many electronic systems. Therefore, it is significantly important to estimate the lithium-ion battery's remaining useful life (RUL), yet very difficult. One important reason is that the measured battery capacity data are often subject to the different levels of noise pollution. In this paper, a novel battery capacity prognostics approach is presented to estimate the RUL of lithium-ion batteries. Wavelet denoising is performed with different thresholds in order to weaken the strong noise and remove the weak noise. Relevance vector machine (RVM) improved by differential evolution (DE) algorithm is utilized to estimate the battery RUL based on the denoised data. An experiment including battery 5 capacity prognostics case and battery 18 capacity prognostics case is conducted and validated that the proposed approach can predict the trend of battery capacity trajectory closely and estimate the battery RUL accurately. PMID:26413090

  3. Prognostic value of admission plasma glucose in non-diabetic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prognostic value of admission plasma glucose in non-diabetic Nigerians with stroke. ... International Journal of Medicine and Health Development ... Outcome was measured using the Modified Rankin scale based on the last score of each ...

  4. Practical options for selecting data-driven or physics-based prognostics algorithms with reviews

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, Dawn; Kim, Nam H.; Choi, Joo-Ho

    2015-01-01

    This paper is to provide practical options for prognostics so that beginners can select appropriate methods for their fields of application. To achieve this goal, several popular algorithms are first reviewed in the data-driven and physics-based prognostics methods. Each algorithm’s attributes and pros and cons are analyzed in terms of model definition, model parameter estimation and ability to handle noise and bias in data. Fatigue crack growth examples are then used to illustrate the characteristics of different algorithms. In order to suggest a suitable algorithm, several studies are made based on the number of data sets, the level of noise and bias, availability of loading and physical models, and complexity of the damage growth behavior. Based on the study, it is concluded that the Gaussian process is easy and fast to implement, but works well only when the covariance function is properly defined. The neural network has the advantage in the case of large noise and complex models but only with many training data sets. The particle filter and Bayesian method are superior to the former methods because they are less affected by noise and model complexity, but work only when physical model and loading conditions are available. - Highlights: • Practical review of data-driven and physics-based prognostics are provided. • As common prognostics algorithms, NN, GP, PF and BM are introduced. • Algorithms’ attributes, pros and cons, and applicable conditions are discussed. • This will be helpful to choose the best algorithm for different applications

  5. Aircraft Anomaly Prognostics, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ridgetop Group will leverage its proven Electromechanical Actuator (EMA) prognostics methodology to develop an advanced model-based actuator prognostic reasoner...

  6. West German Study Group Phase III PlanB Trial: First Prospective Outcome Data for the 21-Gene Recurrence Score Assay and Concordance of Prognostic Markers by Central and Local Pathology Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gluz, Oleg; Nitz, Ulrike A; Christgen, Matthias; Kates, Ronald E; Shak, Steven; Clemens, Michael; Kraemer, Stefan; Aktas, Bahriye; Kuemmel, Sherko; Reimer, Toralf; Kusche, Manfred; Heyl, Volker; Lorenz-Salehi, Fatemeh; Just, Marianne; Hofmann, Daniel; Degenhardt, Tom; Liedtke, Cornelia; Svedman, Christer; Wuerstlein, Rachel; Kreipe, Hans H; Harbeck, Nadia

    2016-07-10

    The 21-gene Recurrence Score (RS) assay is a validated prognostic/predictive tool in early hormone receptor-positive breast cancer (BC); however, only a few prospective outcome results have been available so far. In the phase III PlanB trial, RS was prospectively used to define a subset of patients who received only endocrine therapy. We present 3-year outcome data and concordance analysis (among biomarkers/RS). Central tumor bank was established prospectively from PlanB (intermediate and high-risk, locally human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative BC). After an early amendment, HR-positive, pN0-1 patients with RS ≤ 11 were recommended to omit chemotherapy. From 2009 to 2011, PlanB enrolled 3,198 patients with a median age of 56 years; 41.1% had node-positive and 32.5% grade 3 disease. In 348 patients (15.3%), chemotherapy was omitted based on RS ≤ 11. After 35 months median follow-up, 3-year disease-free survival in patients with RS ≤ 11 and endocrine therapy alone was 98% versus 92% and 98% in RS > 25 and RS 12 to 25 in chemotherapy-treated patients, respectively. Nodal status, central and local grade, the Ki-67 protein encoded by the MKI67 gene, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, tumor size, and RS were univariate prognostic factors for disease-free survival; only nodal status, both central and local grade, and RS were independent multivariate factors. Histologic grade was discordant between central and local laboratories in 44%. RS was positively but moderately correlated with the Ki-67 protein encoded by the MKI67 gene and grade and negatively correlated with progesterone receptor and estrogen receptor. In this prospective trial, patients with enhanced clinical risk and omitted chemotherapy on the basis of RS ≤ 11 had excellent 3-year survival. The substantial discordance observed between traditional prognostic markers and RS emphasizes the need for standardized assessment and supports the potential integration of standardized, well

  7. Are the MDS-UPDRS-based composite scores clinically applicable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makkos, Attila; Kovács, Márton; Aschermann, Zsuzsanna; Harmat, Márk; Janszky, József; Karádi, Kázmér; Kovács, Norbert

    2018-02-28

    The International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society-sponsored UPDRS (MDS-UPDRS) is a powerful clinical outcome measure. To evaluate the feasibility of various MDS-UPDRS-based composite scores and determine their minimal clinically important difference threshold values. Overall, 1,113 paired investigations of 452 patients were reviewed implementing three different techniques simultaneously. Based on the ordinal regression modeling, the MDS-UPDRS II+III, MDS-UPDRS I+II+III, and the total score of MDS-UPDRS are clinically applicable outcome measures. Any improvement greater than 4.9 points or any worsening more than 4.2 points on MDS-UPDRS II+III represent a minimal, yet clinically meaningful, change. In reference to MDS-UPDRS I+II+III, the smallest changes considered clinically relevant were 6.7 and 5.2 points for improvement and deterioration, respectively. The thresholds for the total score of MDS-UPDRS were 7.1 points for improvement and 6.3 points for worsening. Our findings support the application of various MDS-UPDRS-based composite scores. © 2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

  8. Long-term prognostic value of risk scores after drug-eluting stent implantation for unprotected left main coronary artery: A pooled analysis of the ISAR-LEFT-MAIN and ISAR-LEFT-MAIN 2 randomized clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xhepa, Erion; Tada, Tomohisa; Kufner, Sebastian; Ndrepepa, Gjin; Byrne, Robert A; Kreutzer, Johanna; Ibrahim, Tareq; Tiroch, Klaus; Valgimigli, Marco; Tölg, Ralf; Cassese, Salvatore; Fusaro, Massimiliano; Schunkert, Heribert; Laugwitz, Karl L; Mehilli, Julinda; Kastrati, Adnan

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate the long-term prognostic value of risk scores in the setting of drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation for uLMCA. Data on the prognostic value of novel risk scores developed to select the most appropriate revascularization strategy in patients undergoing DES implantation for uLMCA disease are relatively limited. The study represents a patient-level pooled analysis of the ISAR-LEFT-MAIN (607 patients randomized to paclitaxel-eluting or sirolimus-eluting stents) and the ISAR-LEFT-MAIN-2 (650 patients randomized to everolimus-eluting or zotarolimus-eluting stents) randomized trials. The Syntax Score (SxScore) as well the Syntax Score II (SS-II), the EuroSCORE and the Global Risk Classification (GRC) were calculated. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. At a mean follow-up of 3 years there were 160 deaths (12.7%). The death-incidence was significantly higher in the upper tertiles than in the intermediate or lower ones for all risk scores (log-rank test P risk scores were able to stratify the mortality risk at long-term follow-up. EuroSCORE was the only risk score that significantly improved the discriminatory power of a multivariable model to predict long-term mortality. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Standardized computer-based organized reporting of EEG:SCORE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniczky, Sandor; H, Aurlien,; JC, Brøgger,

    2013-01-01

    process, organized by the European Chapter of the International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. The Standardised Computer-based Organised Reporting of EEG (SCORE) software was constructed based on the terms and features of the consensus statement and it was tested in the clinical practice...... in free-text format. The purpose of our endeavor was to create a computer-based system for EEG assessment and reporting, where the physicians would construct the reports by choosing from predefined elements for each relevant EEG feature, as well as the clinical phenomena (for video-EEG recordings....... SCORE can potentially improve the quality of EEG assessment and reporting; it will help incorporate the results of computer-assisted analysis into the report, it will make possible the build-up of a multinational database, and it will help in training young neurophysiologists....

  10. Standardized Computer-based Organized Reporting of EEG: SCORE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniczky, Sándor; Aurlien, Harald; Brøgger, Jan C; Fuglsang-Frederiksen, Anders; Martins-da-Silva, António; Trinka, Eugen; Visser, Gerhard; Rubboli, Guido; Hjalgrim, Helle; Stefan, Hermann; Rosén, Ingmar; Zarubova, Jana; Dobesberger, Judith; Alving, Jørgen; Andersen, Kjeld V; Fabricius, Martin; Atkins, Mary D; Neufeld, Miri; Plouin, Perrine; Marusic, Petr; Pressler, Ronit; Mameniskiene, Ruta; Hopfengärtner, Rüdiger; Emde Boas, Walter; Wolf, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The electroencephalography (EEG) signal has a high complexity, and the process of extracting clinically relevant features is achieved by visual analysis of the recordings. The interobserver agreement in EEG interpretation is only moderate. This is partly due to the method of reporting the findings in free-text format. The purpose of our endeavor was to create a computer-based system for EEG assessment and reporting, where the physicians would construct the reports by choosing from predefined elements for each relevant EEG feature, as well as the clinical phenomena (for video-EEG recordings). A working group of EEG experts took part in consensus workshops in Dianalund, Denmark, in 2010 and 2011. The faculty was approved by the Commission on European Affairs of the International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE). The working group produced a consensus proposal that went through a pan-European review process, organized by the European Chapter of the International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. The Standardised Computer-based Organised Reporting of EEG (SCORE) software was constructed based on the terms and features of the consensus statement and it was tested in the clinical practice. The main elements of SCORE are the following: personal data of the patient, referral data, recording conditions, modulators, background activity, drowsiness and sleep, interictal findings, “episodes” (clinical or subclinical events), physiologic patterns, patterns of uncertain significance, artifacts, polygraphic channels, and diagnostic significance. The following specific aspects of the neonatal EEGs are scored: alertness, temporal organization, and spatial organization. For each EEG finding, relevant features are scored using predefined terms. Definitions are provided for all EEG terms and features. SCORE can potentially improve the quality of EEG assessment and reporting; it will help incorporate the results of computer-assisted analysis into the report, it will make

  11. INNOVATION ANALYSIS BASED ON SCORES AT THE FIRM LEVEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cătălin George ALEXE

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Innovation analysis based on scores (Innovation Scorecard is a simple way to get a quick diagnosis on the potential of innovation of a firm in its intention to achieve the innovation capability. It aims to identify and remedy the deficient aspects related to innovation management being used as a measuring tool for the innovation initiatives over time within the innovation audit. The paper aims to present the advantages and disadvantages of using the method, and the three approaches developed over time. Therefore, the model proposed by the consulting firm Arthur D. Little in collaboration with the European Business School, Eckelmann's model and AGGB's local model are summarized and compared. At the end of the paper, several possible solutions are proposed to improve the way of analysis based on scores.

  12. Opportunistic splitting for scheduling using a score-based approach

    KAUST Repository

    Rashid, Faraan

    2012-06-01

    We consider the problem of scheduling a user in a multi-user wireless environment in a distributed manner. The opportunistic splitting algorithm is applied to find the best group of users without reporting the channel state information to the centralized scheduler. The users find the best among themselves while requiring just a ternary feedback from the common receiver at the end of each mini-slot. The original splitting algorithm is modified to handle users with asymmetric channel conditions. We use a score-based approach with the splitting algorithm to introduce time and throughput fairness while exploiting the multi-user diversity of the network. Analytical and simulation results are given to show that the modified score-based splitting algorithm works well as a fair scheduling scheme with good spectral efficiency and reduced feedback. © 2012 IEEE.

  13. From scores to face templates: a model-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohanty, Pranab; Sarkar, Sudeep; Kasturi, Rangachar

    2007-12-01

    Regeneration of templates from match scores has security and privacy implications related to any biometric authentication system. We propose a novel paradigm to reconstruct face templates from match scores using a linear approach. It proceeds by first modeling the behavior of the given face recognition algorithm by an affine transformation. The goal of the modeling is to approximate the distances computed by a face recognition algorithm between two faces by distances between points, representing these faces, in an affine space. Given this space, templates from an independent image set (break-in) are matched only once with the enrolled template of the targeted subject and match scores are recorded. These scores are then used to embed the targeted subject in the approximating affine (non-orthogonal) space. Given the coordinates of the targeted subject in the affine space, the original template of the targeted subject is reconstructed using the inverse of the affine transformation. We demonstrate our ideas using three, fundamentally different, face recognition algorithms: Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with Mahalanobis cosine distance measure, Bayesian intra-extrapersonal classifier (BIC), and a feature-based commercial algorithm. To demonstrate the independence of the break-in set with the gallery set, we select face templates from two different databases: Face Recognition Grand Challenge (FRGC) and Facial Recognition Technology (FERET) Database (FERET). With an operational point set at 1 percent False Acceptance Rate (FAR) and 99 percent True Acceptance Rate (TAR) for 1,196 enrollments (FERET gallery), we show that at most 600 attempts (score computations) are required to achieve a 73 percent chance of breaking in as a randomly chosen target subject for the commercial face recognition system. With similar operational set up, we achieve a 72 percent and 100 percent chance of breaking in for the Bayesian and PCA based face recognition systems, respectively. With

  14. A copula-based sampling method for data-driven prognostics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xi, Zhimin; Jing, Rong; Wang, Pingfeng; Hu, Chao

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops a Copula-based sampling method for data-driven prognostics. The method essentially consists of an offline training process and an online prediction process: (i) the offline training process builds a statistical relationship between the failure time and the time realizations at specified degradation levels on the basis of off-line training data sets; and (ii) the online prediction process identifies probable failure times for online testing units based on the statistical model constructed in the offline process and the online testing data. Our contributions in this paper are three-fold, namely the definition of a generic health index system to quantify the health degradation of an engineering system, the construction of a Copula-based statistical model to learn the statistical relationship between the failure time and the time realizations at specified degradation levels, and the development of a simulation-based approach for the prediction of remaining useful life (RUL). Two engineering case studies, namely the electric cooling fan health prognostics and the 2008 IEEE PHM challenge problem, are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • We develop a novel mechanism for data-driven prognostics. • A generic health index system quantifies health degradation of engineering systems. • Off-line training model is constructed based on the Bayesian Copula model. • Remaining useful life is predicted from a simulation-based approach

  15. An Advanced Deep Learning Approach for Ki-67 Stained Hotspot Detection and Proliferation Rate Scoring for Prognostic Evaluation of Breast Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Monjoy; Chakraborty, Chandan; Arun, Indu; Ahmed, Rosina; Chatterjee, Sanjoy

    2017-06-12

    Being a non-histone protein, Ki-67 is one of the essential biomarkers for the immunohistochemical assessment of proliferation rate in breast cancer screening and grading. The Ki-67 signature is always sensitive to radiotherapy and chemotherapy. Due to random morphological, color and intensity variations of cell nuclei (immunopositive and immunonegative), manual/subjective assessment of Ki-67 scoring is error-prone and time-consuming. Hence, several machine learning approaches have been reported; nevertheless, none of them had worked on deep learning based hotspots detection and proliferation scoring. In this article, we suggest an advanced deep learning model for computerized recognition of candidate hotspots and subsequent proliferation rate scoring by quantifying Ki-67 appearance in breast cancer immunohistochemical images. Unlike existing Ki-67 scoring techniques, our methodology uses Gamma mixture model (GMM) with Expectation-Maximization for seed point detection and patch selection and deep learning, comprises with decision layer, for hotspots detection and proliferation scoring. Experimental results provide 93% precision, 0.88% recall and 0.91% F-score value. The model performance has also been compared with the pathologists' manual annotations and recently published articles. In future, the proposed deep learning framework will be highly reliable and beneficial to the junior and senior pathologists for fast and efficient Ki-67 scoring.

  16. Robust LOD scores for variance component-based linkage analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blangero, J; Williams, J T; Almasy, L

    2000-01-01

    The variance component method is now widely used for linkage analysis of quantitative traits. Although this approach offers many advantages, the importance of the underlying assumption of multivariate normality of the trait distribution within pedigrees has not been studied extensively. Simulation studies have shown that traits with leptokurtic distributions yield linkage test statistics that exhibit excessive Type I error when analyzed naively. We derive analytical formulae relating the deviation from the expected asymptotic distribution of the lod score to the kurtosis and total heritability of the quantitative trait. A simple correction constant yields a robust lod score for any deviation from normality and for any pedigree structure, and effectively eliminates the problem of inflated Type I error due to misspecification of the underlying probability model in variance component-based linkage analysis.

  17. Classification of Airflow Limitation Based on z-Score Underestimates Mortality in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejero, Elena; Prats, Eva; Casitas, Raquel; Galera, Raúl; Pardo, Paloma; Gavilán, Adelaida; Martínez-Cerón, Elisabet; Cubillos-Zapata, Carolina; Del Peso, Luis; García-Río, Francisco

    2017-08-01

    Global Lung Function Initiative recommends reporting lung function measures as z-score, and a classification of airflow limitation (AL) based on this parameter has recently been proposed. To evaluate the prognostic capacity of the AL classifications based on z-score or percentage predicted of FEV 1 in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). A cohort of 2,614 patients with COPD recruited outside the hospital setting was examined after a mean (± SD) of 57 ± 13 months of follow-up, totaling 10,322 person-years. All-cause mortality was analyzed, evaluating the predictive capacity of several AL staging systems. Based on Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease guidelines, 461 patients (17.6%) had mild, 1,452 (55.5%) moderate, 590 (22.6%) severe, and 111 (4.2%) very severe AL. According to z-score classification, 66.3% of patients remained with the same severity, whereas 23.7% worsened and 10.0% improved. Unlike other staging systems, patients with severe AL according to z-score had higher mortality than those with very severe AL (increase of risk by 5.2 and 3.9 times compared with mild AL, respectively). The predictive capacity for 5-year survival was slightly higher for FEV 1 expressed as percentage of predicted than as z-score (area under the curve: 0.714-0.760 vs. 0.649-0.708, respectively). A severity-dependent relationship between AL grades by z-score and mortality was only detected in patients younger than age 60 years. In patients with COPD, the AL classification based on z-score predicts worse mortality than those based on percentage of predicted. It is possible that the z-score underestimates AL severity in patients older than 60 years of age with severe functional impairment.

  18. Enumerating bone marrow blasts from nonerythroid cellularity improves outcome prediction in myelodysplastic syndromes and permits a better definition of the intermediate risk category of the Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo, Xavier; Arenillas, Leonor; Luño, Elisa; Senent, Leonor; Arnan, Montserrat; Ramos, Fernando; Pedro, Carme; Tormo, Mar; Montoro, Julia; Díez-Campelo, María; Blanco, María Laura; Arrizabalaga, Beatriz; Xicoy, Blanca; Bonanad, Santiago; Jerez, Andrés; Nomdedeu, Meritxell; Ferrer, Ana; Sanz, Guillermo F; Florensa, Lourdes

    2017-07-01

    The Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) has been recognized as the score with the best outcome prediction capability in MDS, but this brought new concerns about the accurate prognostication of patients classified into the intermediate risk category. The correct enumeration of blasts is essential in prognostication of MDS. Recent data evidenced that considering blasts from nonerythroid cellularity (NECs) improves outcome prediction in the context of IPSS and WHO classification. We assessed the percentage of blasts from total nucleated cells (TNCs) and NECs in 3924 MDS patients from the GESMD, 498 of whom were MDS with erythroid predominance (MDS-E). We assessed if calculating IPSS-R by enumerating blasts from NECs improves prognostication of MDS. Twenty-four percent of patients classified into the intermediate category were reclassified into higher-risk categories and showed shorter overall survival (OS) and time to AML evolution than those who remained into the intermediate one. Likewise, a better distribution of patients was observed, since lower-risk patients showed longer survivals than previously whereas higher-risk ones maintained the outcome expected in this poor prognostic group (median OS < 20 months). Furthermore, our approach was particularly useful for detecting patients at risk of dying with AML. Regarding MDS-E, 51% patients classified into the intermediate category were reclassified into higher-risk ones and showed shorter OS and time to AML. In this subgroup of MDS, IPSS-R was capable of splitting our series in five groups with significant differences in OS only when blasts were assessed from NECs. In conclusion, our easy-applicable approach improves prognostic assessment of MDS patients. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Computerized summary scoring: crowdsourcing-based latent semantic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Haiying; Cai, Zhiqiang; Graesser, Arthur C

    2017-11-03

    In this study we developed and evaluated a crowdsourcing-based latent semantic analysis (LSA) approach to computerized summary scoring (CSS). LSA is a frequently used mathematical component in CSS, where LSA similarity represents the extent to which the to-be-graded target summary is similar to a model summary or a set of exemplar summaries. Researchers have proposed different formulations of the model summary in previous studies, such as pregraded summaries, expert-generated summaries, or source texts. The former two methods, however, require substantial human time, effort, and costs in order to either grade or generate summaries. Using source texts does not require human effort, but it also does not predict human summary scores well. With human summary scores as the gold standard, in this study we evaluated the crowdsourcing LSA method by comparing it with seven other LSA methods that used sets of summaries from different sources (either experts or crowdsourced) of differing quality, along with source texts. Results showed that crowdsourcing LSA predicted human summary scores as well as expert-good and crowdsourcing-good summaries, and better than the other methods. A series of analyses with different numbers of crowdsourcing summaries demonstrated that the number (from 10 to 100) did not significantly affect performance. These findings imply that crowdsourcing LSA is a promising approach to CSS, because it saves human effort in generating the model summary while still yielding comparable performance. This approach to small-scale CSS provides a practical solution for instructors in courses, and also advances research on automated assessments in which student responses are expected to semantically converge on subject matter content.

  20. Iron overload in lower international prognostic scoring system risk patients with myelodysplastic syndrome receiving red blood cell transfusions: Relation to infections and possible benefit of iron chelation therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Colleen A C; Wong, Shannon A Y; Leitch, Heather A

    2018-04-01

    An increased incidence of infections and infectious mortality has been reported in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) patients receiving red blood cell (RBC) transfusions. We examined incidence of infections requiring antibiotics, antifungal or antiviral medications in transfused lower International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) risk MDS patients and whether this differed with iron chelation therapy (ICT). 138 transfused MDS patients were lower IPSS risk. 59 received ICT; median duration was 13 months. There was no significant difference between groups in neutrophil count at first RBC transfusion or first infection. Infections included: bacterial, n = 88; viral; fungal; and mycobacterial; n = 2 each. In ICT and non-ICT patients, respectively, infections were (number [%]): patients, 23 (40.0%) and 22 (27.8%); episodes (median [range]), 2 (1-6) and 2 (1-5); hospitalizations, 16 (27.1%) and 8 (10.1%); and deaths, 0 (0%) and 1 (1.3%), p = NS for all. Median overall survival (OS) from first RBC transfusion was superior in ICT patients, p = 0.01, and remained significant in a multivariate analysis (MVA), p = 0.003. Median time to first infection (TTI) was 27 and 7.8 months, respectively, p < 0.0001, and ICT remained significant for TTI in an MVA, p = 0.02, hazard ratio 0.3. For ICT patients with blast count <5%, TTI was significantly superior (p = 0.004). In this retrospective analysis, for lower IPSS risk MDS patients receiving RBC transfusions, though number and type of infections were similar between groups and despite similar neutrophil counts, time to first infection was significantly longer in ICT patients (p < 0.0001). These results should be confirmed in larger, prospective analyses. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Lymphocyte-Related Inflammation and Immune-Based Scores Predict Prognosis of Chordoma Patients After Radical Resection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenhao Hu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The inflammatory microenvironment plays a critical role in the development and progression of malignancies. In the present study, we aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of lymphocyte-related inflammation and immune-based prognostic scores in patients with chordoma after radical resection, including the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR, platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR, monocyte-lymphocyte ratio (MLR, and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII. A total of 172 consecutive patients with chordoma who underwent radical resection were reviewed. R software was used to randomly select 86 chordoma patients as a training set and 86 chordoma patients as a validation set. Potential prognostic factors were also identified, including age, sex, tumor localization, KPS, Enneking stage, tumor size, and tumor metastasis. Overall survival (OS was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method and multivariate Cox regression analyses. NLR, PLR, SII, Enneking stage, tumor differentiation and tumor metastasis were identified as significant factors from the univariate analysis in both the training and validation sets and were subjected to multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis. The univariate analysis showed that NLR ≥1.65, PLR ≥121, and SII ≥370×109/L were significantly associated with poor OS. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis, SII, Enneking stage and tumor metastasis were significantly associated with OS. As noninvasive, low-cost, reproducible prognostic biomarkers, NLR, PLR and SII could help predict poor prognosis in patients with chordoma after radical resection. This finding may contribute to the development of more effective tailored therapy according to the characteristics of individual tumors.

  2. Physics Based Electrolytic Capacitor Degradation Models for Prognostic Studies under Thermal Overstress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Celaya, Jose R.; Goebel, Kai; Biswas, Gautam

    2012-01-01

    Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on safety critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. This makes them good candidates for prognostics and health management research. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of components or systems based on their current state of health and their anticipated future use and operational conditions. Past experiences show that capacitors tend to degrade and fail faster under high electrical and thermal stress conditions that they are often subjected to during operations. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.

  3. Web Based Prognostics and 24/7 Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strautkalns, Miryam; Robinson, Peter

    2013-01-01

    We created a general framework for analysts to store and view data in a way that removes the boundaries created by operating systems, programming languages, and proximity. With the advent of HTML5 and CSS3 with JavaScript the distribution of information is limited to only those who lack a browser. We created a framework based on the methodology: one server, one web based application. Additional benefits are increased opportunities for collaboration. Today the idea of a group in a single room is antiquated. Groups will communicate and collaborate with others from other universities, organizations, as well as other continents across times zones. There are many varieties of data gathering and condition-monitoring software available as well as companies who specialize in customizing software to individual applications. One single group will depend on multiple languages, environments, and computers to oversee recording and collaborating with one another in a single lab. The heterogeneous nature of the system creates challenges for seamless exchange of data and ideas between members. To address these limitations we designed a framework to allow users seamless accessibility to their data. Our framework was deployed using the data feed on the NASA Ames' planetary rover testbed. Our paper demonstrates the process and implementation we followed on the rover.

  4. Do medical students’ scores using different assessment instruments predict their scores in clinical reasoning using a computer-based simulation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fida M

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Mariam Fida,1 Salah Eldin Kassab2 1Department of Molecular Medicine, College of Medicine and Medical Sciences, Arabian Gulf University, Manama, Bahrain; 2Department of Medical Education, Faculty of Medicine, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt Purpose: The development of clinical problem-solving skills evolves over time and requires structured training and background knowledge. Computer-based case simulations (CCS have been used for teaching and assessment of clinical reasoning skills. However, previous studies examining the psychometric properties of CCS as an assessment tool have been controversial. Furthermore, studies reporting the integration of CCS into problem-based medical curricula have been limited. Methods: This study examined the psychometric properties of using CCS software (DxR Clinician for assessment of medical students (n=130 studying in a problem-based, integrated multisystem module (Unit IX during the academic year 2011–2012. Internal consistency reliability of CCS scores was calculated using Cronbach's alpha statistics. The relationships between students' scores in CCS components (clinical reasoning, diagnostic performance, and patient management and their scores in other examination tools at the end of the unit including multiple-choice questions, short-answer questions, objective structured clinical examination (OSCE, and real patient encounters were analyzed using stepwise hierarchical linear regression. Results: Internal consistency reliability of CCS scores was high (α=0.862. Inter-item correlations between students' scores in different CCS components and their scores in CCS and other test items were statistically significant. Regression analysis indicated that OSCE scores predicted 32.7% and 35.1% of the variance in clinical reasoning and patient management scores, respectively (P<0.01. Multiple-choice question scores, however, predicted only 15.4% of the variance in diagnostic performance scores (P<0.01, while

  5. Prospective construction and validation of a prognostic score to identify patients who benefit from third-line chemotherapy for metastatic breast cancer in terms of overall survival: the METAL3 Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filleron, Thomas; Bonnetain, Franck; Mancini, Julien; Martinez, Alejandra; Roché, Henri; Dalenc, Florence

    2015-01-01

    Metastatic breast cancer (MBC) is an incurable disease and represents a complex therapeutic challenge for oncologists. Despite the possibility of prescribing new agents such as tailored therapy, cytotoxic chemotherapy and hormone therapy remain the major treatments for MBC. Several lines of chemotherapy can be proposed for these patients, but beyond the second-line, evidence of effectiveness is lacking and such treatment has important associated toxicity affecting quality of life (QoL). Prospective data on third-line chemotherapy is very poor. There is no recent retrospective data and it mainly includes single-centre experiences. Moreover, prognostic parameters considered in these retrospective studies are limited to clinico-pathological factors. Previous reports don't evaluate prognostic impact of circulating tumour cells (CTC) and baseline QoL. METAL3 METAstatic Line 3 is a prospective, multicentric trial designed to prospectively construct a prognostic score (including selected clinico-pathological factors, CTC and baseline QoL) to identify patients who benefit from third-line chemotherapy for MBC in terms of overall survival (training cohort). Score will then be validated with another cohort (validation cohort). The aim of this paper is to review literature data on third-line chemotherapy for MBC and to describe in detail our prospective study. We hope that this prognostic score could be used by physicians to develop new therapeutic strategies when there will be limited benefit of third-line chemotherapy; this score will also help to improve patient information on their outcome. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Prognostic factors for open globe injuries and correlation of Ocular Trauma Score at a tertiary referral eye care centre in Singapore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rupesh Agrawal

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the factors influencing final vision outcome after surgical repair of open globe injuries and to correlate the Ocular trauma score. Materials and Methods: Retrospective case analysis of patients with open globe injuries at a tertiary referral eye care centre in Singapore was performed. Pre-operative factors affecting final vision outcome in patients with open globe injury and correlation of ocular trauma score in our study with international ocular trauma scoring system was performed. Results: Case records of 172 eyes with open globe injury were analyzed. Mean age was 36. 67 years. Mean follow up was 12.26 m. Males were pre-dominantly affected. Initial visual acuity was ≥20/40, 20/50 < 20/200, 20/200- CF, HM- PL and NLP in 24 (14%, 39 (22.7%, 16 (9.3%, 66 (38.4% and 27 (15.7% eyes respectively. Final visual acuity was ≤20/40, 20/50 < 20/200, 20/200- 1/200, HM- PL and NLP in 76 (44.2%, 28 (16.3%, 11 (6.4%, 30 (17.4% and 27 (15.7% eyes respectively. Ocular trauma score in our study correlates with international ocular trauma scoring system. Conclusion: The present study showed pre-operative variables such as mode of injury, pre-operative visual acuity, traumatic cataract, hyphaema, relative afferent papillary defect, vitreous lossand vitreous hemorrhage to be adversely affecting the final vision outcome. Our study showed a good synchrony with international ocular trauma score (OTS and based on this study we were able to validate application of OTS in Singapore population. Recognizing these factors can help the surgeon in evidence based counseling.

  7. Hospital Value-Based Purchasing (HVBP) – Total Performance Score

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — A list of hospitals participating in the Hospital VBP Program and their Clinical Process of Care domain scores, Patient Experience of Care dimension scores, and...

  8. Prognostic table for predicting major cardiac events based on J-ACCESS investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, Kenichi; Nishimura, Tsunehiko

    2008-01-01

    The event risk of patients with coronary heart disease may be estimated by a large-scale prognostic database in a Japanese population. The aim of this study was to create a heart risk table for predicting the major cardiac event rate. Using the Japanese-assessment of cardiac event and survival study (J-ACCESS) database created by a prognostic investigation involving 117 hospitals and >4000 patients in Japan, multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. The major event rate over a 3-year period that included cardiac death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and severe heart failure requiring hospitalization was predicted by the logistic regression equation. The algorithm for calculating the event rate was simplified for creating tables. Two tables were created to calculate cardiac risk by age, perfusion score category, and ejection fraction with and without the presence of diabetes. A relative risk table comparing age-matched control subjects was also made. When the simplified tables were compared with the results from the original logistic regression analysis, both risk values and relative risks agreed well (P<0.0001 for both). The Heart Risk Table was created for patients suspected of having ischemic heart disease and who underwent myocardial perfusion gated single-photon emission computed tomography. The validity of risk assessment using a J-ACCESS database should be validated in a future study. (author)

  9. Comparison of risk of local-regional recurrence after mastectomy or breast conservation therapy for patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radiation stratified according to a prognostic index score

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Eugene H.; Strom, Eric A.; Perkins, George H.; Oh, Julia L.; Chen, Allen M.; Meric-Bernstam, Funda; Hunt, Kelly K.; Sahin, Aysegul A.; Hortobagyi, Gabriel N.; Buchholz, Thomas A.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: We previously developed a prognostic index that stratified patients treated with breast conservation therapy (BCT) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy into groups with different risks for local-regional recurrence (LRR). The purpose of this study was to compare the rates of LRR as a function of prognostic index score for patients treated with BCT or mastectomy plus radiation after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed 815 patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation. Patients were assigned an index score from 0 to 4 and given 1 point for the presence of each factor: clinical N2 to N3 disease, lymphovascular invasion, pathologic size >2 cm, and multifocal residual disease. Results: The 10-year LRR rates were very low and similar between the mastectomy and BCT groups for patients with an index score of 0 or 1. For patients with a score of 2, LRR trended lower for those treated with mastectomy vs. BCT (12% vs. 28%, p = 0.28). For patients with a score of 3 to 4, LRR was significantly lower for those treated with mastectomy vs. BCT (19% vs. 61%, p = 0.009). Conclusions: This analysis suggests that BCT can provide excellent local-regional treatment for the vast majority of patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. For the few patients with a score of 3 to 4, LRR was >60% after BCT and was <20% with mastectomy. If these findings are confirmed in larger randomized studies, the prognostic index may be useful in helping to select the type of surgical treatment for patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation

  10. Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgarpour, Masoud; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2018-01-01

    The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...... monitoring, fault prediction and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution...

  11. Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgarpour, Masoud; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2018-01-01

    monitoring, fault prediction and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution......The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...

  12. Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgarpour, Masoud

    2017-01-01

    monitoring, fault detection and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution......The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...

  13. Retrospective study on prognostic importance of serum procalcitonin and amino - terminal pro - brain natriuretic peptide levels as compared to Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV Score on Intensive Care Unit admission, in a mixed Intensive Care Unit population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chitra Mehta

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Timely decision making in Intensive Care Unit (ICU is very essential to improve the outcome of critically sick patients. Conventional scores like Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE IV are quite cumbersome with calculations and take minimum 24 hours. Procalcitonin has shown to have prognostic value in ICU/Emergency department (ED in disease states like pneumonia, sepsis etc. NTproBNP has demonstrated excellent diagnostic and prognostic importance in cardiac diseases. It has also been found elevated in non-cardiac diseases. We chose to study the prognostic utility of these markers on ICU admission. Settings and Design: Retrospective observational study. Materials and Methods: A Retrospective analysis of 100 eligible patients was done who had undergone PCT and NTproBNP measurements on ICU admission. Their correlations with all cause mortality, length of hospital stay, need for ventilator support, need for vasopressors were performed. Results: Among 100 randomly selected ICU patients, 28 were non-survivors. NTproBNP values on admission significantly correlated with all cause mortality (P = 0.036, AUC = 0.643 and morbidity (P = 0.000, AUC = 0.763, comparable to that of APACHE-IV score. PCT values on admission did not show significant association with mortality, but correlated well with morbidity and prolonged hospital length of stay (AUC = 0.616, P = 0.045. Conclusion: The current study demonstrated a good predictive value of NTproBNP, in terms of mortality and morbidity comparable to that of APACHE-IV score. Procalcitonin, however, was found to have doubtful prognostic importance. These findings need to be confirmed in a prospective larger study.

  14. Prognostics and Condition-Based Maintenance: A New Approach to Precursive Metrics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jarrell, Donald B.; Sisk, Daniel R.; Bond, Leonard J.

    2004-01-01

    The assumptions used in the design basis of process equipment have always been as much art as science. The usually imprecise boundaries of the equipments' operational envelope provide opportunities for two major improvements in the operations and maintenance (O and M) of process machinery: (a) the actual versus intended machine environment can be understood and brought into much better alignment and (b) the end goal can define O and M strategies in terms of life cycle and economic management of plant assets.Scientists at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) have performed experiments aimed at understanding and controlling aging of both safety-specific nuclear plant components and the infrastructure that supports essential plant processes. In this paper we examine the development of aging precursor metrics and their correlation with degradation rate and projected machinery failure.Degradation-specific correlations have been developed at PNNL that will allow accurate physics-based diagnostic and prognostic determinations to be derived from a new view of condition-based maintenance. This view, founded in root cause analysis, is focused on quantifying the primary stressor(s) responsible for degradation in the component of interest and formulating a deterministic relationship between the stressor intensity and the resulting degradation rate. This precursive relationship between the performance, degradation, and underlying stressor set is used to gain a first-principles approach to prognostic determinations. A holistic infrastructure approach, as applied through a conditions-based maintenance framework, will allow intelligent, automated diagnostic and prognostic programming to provide O and M practitioners with an understanding of the condition of their machinery today and an assurance of its operational state tomorrow

  15. ANAM4 TBI Reaction Time-Based Tests have Prognostic Utility for Acute Concussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    7:767. 2013 ANAM4 TBI Reaction Time-Based Tests Have Prognostic Utility for Acute Concussion LT Jacob N. Norris, MSC USN*; LCDR Waiter Carr, MSC USN...CDR Thomas Herzig, MSC USNf; CDR D. Waiter Labrie, MSC USNf; CDR Richard Sams, MC USN§ ABSTRACT The Concussion Restoration Care Center has used the...Work Unit No. N24LB. REFERENCES 1. Department of Defense: DoD Poiicy Guidance for Management of Mild Traumatic Brain Injury/Concussion in the Deployed

  16. Prognostics and Condition Based Maintenance: A New Approach to Precursive Metrics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jarrell, Donald B.; Sisk, Daniel R.; Bond, Leonard J.

    2002-01-01

    Scientists at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) have examined the necessity for understanding and controlling the aging process of both safety-specific plant components and the infrastructure that supports these processes. In this paper we examine the preliminary development of aging precursor metrics and their correlation with degradation rate and projected machine failure. Degradation specific correlations are currently being developed at PNNL that will allow accurate physics-based diagnostic and prognostic determinations to be derived from a new view of condition based maintenance. This view, founded in root cause analysis, is focused on quantifying the primary stressor(s) responsible for degradation in the component of interest. The derivative relationship between the performance, degradation and the underlying stressor set is used to gain a first principles approach to prognostic determinations. The assumptions used for the design basis of process equipment have always been as much art as science and for this reason have been misused or relegated into obscurity in all but the nuclear industry. The ability to successfully link degradation and expected equipment life to stressor intensity level is valuable in that it quantifies the degree of machine stress for a given production level. This allows two major improvements in the O and M of process machinery: (1) the actual versus intended machine environment can be understood and brought into much better alignment, and (2) the end goal can define operations and maintenance strategies in terms of life cycle and economic management of plant assets. A holistic infrastructure approach, as applied through a CBM framework, will allow intelligent, automated diagnostic and prognostic programs to provide O and M practitioners with an understanding of the condition of their machinery today and an assurance of its operational state tomorrow

  17. Comparison of the prognostic and predictive utilities of the 21-gene Recurrence Score assay and Adjuvant! for women with node-negative, ER-positive breast cancer: results from NSABP B-14 and NSABP B-20.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Gong; Shak, Steven; Paik, Soonmyung; Anderson, Stewart J; Costantino, Joseph P; Geyer, Charles E; Mamounas, Eleftherios P; Wickerham, D Lawrence; Wolmark, Norman

    2011-05-01

    The Oncotype DX Recurrence Score (RS) is a validated genomic predictor of outcome and response to adjuvant chemotherapy in ER-positive breast cancer. Adjuvant! was developed using SEER registry data and results from the Early Breast Cancer Clinical Trialists' overview analyses to estimate outcome and benefit from adjuvant hormonal therapy and chemotherapy. In this report we compare the prognostic and predictive utility of these two tools in node-negative, ER-positive breast cancer. RS and Adjuvant! results were available from 668 tamoxifen-treated NSABP B-14 patients, 227 tamoxifen-treated NSABP B-20 patients, and 424 chemotherapy plus tamoxifen-treated B-20 patients. Adjuvant! results were also available from 1952 B-20 patients. The primary endpoint was distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI). Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the prognostic and predictive utility of RS and Adjuvant!. Both RS (P < 0.001) and Adjuvant! (P = 0.002) provided strong independent prognostic information in tamoxifen-treated patients. Combining RS and individual clinicopathologic characteristics provided greater prognostic discrimination than combining RS and the composite Adjuvant!. In the B-20 cohort with RS results (n = 651), RS was significantly predictive of chemotherapy benefit (interaction P = 0.031 for DRFI, P = 0.011 for overall survival [OS], P = 0.082 for disease-free survival [DFS]), but Adjuvant! was not (interaction P = 0.99, P = 0.311, and P = 0.357, respectively). However, in the larger B-20 sub-cohort (n = 1952), Adjuvant! was significantly predictive of chemotherapy benefit for OS (interaction P = 0.009) but not for DRFI (P = 0.219) or DFS (P = 0.099). Prognostic estimates can be optimized by combining RS and clinicopathologic information instead of simply combining RS and Adjuvant!. RS should be used for estimating relative chemotherapy benefit.

  18. A scoring system based on artificial neural network for predicting 10-year survival in stage II A colon cancer patients after radical surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Wu; Lu, Shi-Xun; Lu, Zhen-Hai; Li, Pei-Xing; Yun, Jing-Ping; Zhang, Rong-Xin; Pan, Zhi-Zhong; Wan, De-Sen

    2016-01-01

    Nearly 20% patients with stage II A colon cancer will develop recurrent disease post-operatively. The present study aims to develop a scoring system based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for predicting 10-year survival outcome. The clinical and molecular data of 117 stage II A colon cancer patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were used for training set and test set; poor pathological grading (score 49), reduced expression of TGFBR2 (score 33), over-expression of TGF-β (score 45), MAPK (score 32), pin1 (score 100), β-catenin in tumor tissue (score 50) and reduced expression of TGF-β in normal mucosa (score 22) were selected as the prognostic risk predictors. According to the developed scoring system, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups, which were supposed with higher, moderate and lower risk levels. As a result, for the 3 subgroups, the 10-year overall survival (OS) rates were 16.7%, 62.9% and 100% (P < 0.001); and the 10-year disease free survival (DFS) rates were 16.7%, 61.8% and 98.8% (P < 0.001) respectively. It showed that this scoring system for stage II A colon cancer could help to predict long-term survival and screen out high-risk individuals for more vigorous treatment. PMID:27008710

  19. A scoring system based on artificial neural network for predicting 10-year survival in stage II A colon cancer patients after radical surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Jian-Hong; Fang, Yu-Jing; Li, Cai-Xia; Ou, Qing-Jian; Jiang, Wu; Lu, Shi-Xun; Lu, Zhen-Hai; Li, Pei-Xing; Yun, Jing-Ping; Zhang, Rong-Xin; Pan, Zhi-Zhong; Wan, De Sen

    2016-04-19

    Nearly 20% patients with stage II A colon cancer will develop recurrent disease post-operatively. The present study aims to develop a scoring system based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for predicting 10-year survival outcome. The clinical and molecular data of 117 stage II A colon cancer patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were used for training set and test set; poor pathological grading (score 49), reduced expression of TGFBR2 (score 33), over-expression of TGF-β (score 45), MAPK (score 32), pin1 (score 100), β-catenin in tumor tissue (score 50) and reduced expression of TGF-β in normal mucosa (score 22) were selected as the prognostic risk predictors. According to the developed scoring system, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups, which were supposed with higher, moderate and lower risk levels. As a result, for the 3 subgroups, the 10-year overall survival (OS) rates were 16.7%, 62.9% and 100% (P < 0.001); and the 10-year disease free survival (DFS) rates were 16.7%, 61.8% and 98.8% (P < 0.001) respectively. It showed that this scoring system for stage II A colon cancer could help to predict long-term survival and screen out high-risk individuals for more vigorous treatment.

  20. Comparison of the Classifier Oriented Gait Score and the Gait Profile Score based on imitated gait impairments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christian, Josef; Kröll, Josef; Schwameder, Hermann

    2017-06-01

    Common summary measures of gait quality such as the Gait Profile Score (GPS) are based on the principle of measuring a distance from the mean pattern of a healthy reference group in a gait pattern vector space. The recently introduced Classifier Oriented Gait Score (COGS) is a pathology specific score that measures this distance in a unique direction, which is indicated by a linear classifier. This approach has potentially improved the discriminatory power to detect subtle changes in gait patterns but does not incorporate a profile of interpretable sub-scores like the GPS. The main aims of this study were to extend the COGS by decomposing it into interpretable sub-scores as realized in the GPS and to compare the discriminative power of the GPS and COGS. Two types of gait impairments were imitated to enable a high level of control of the gait patterns. Imitated impairments were realized by restricting knee extension and inducing leg length discrepancy. The results showed increased discriminatory power of the COGS for differentiating diverse levels of impairment. Comparison of the GPS and COGS sub-scores and their ability to indicate changes in specific variables supports the validity of both scores. The COGS is an overall measure of gait quality with increased power to detect subtle changes in gait patterns and might be well suited for tracing the effect of a therapeutic treatment over time. The newly introduced sub-scores improved the interpretability of the COGS, which is helpful for practical applications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Prognostic role of serum prostatic acid phosphatase for 103Pd-based radiation for prostatic carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dattoli, Michael; Wallner, Kent; True, Lawrence; Sorace, Richard; Koval, John; Cash, Jennifer; Acosta, Rudolph; Biswas, Mohendra; Binder, Michael; Sullivan, Brent; Lastarria, Emilio; Kirwan, Novelle; Stein, Douglas

    1999-01-01

    Purpose: To establish the prognostic role of serum enzymatic prostatic acid phosphatase (PAP) in patients treated with palladium ( 103 Pd) and supplemental external beam irradiation (EBRT) for clinically localized, high-risk prostate carcinoma. Methods and Materials: One hundred twenty-four consecutive patients with Stage T2a-T3 prostatic carcinoma were treated from 1992 through 1995. Each patient had at least one of the following risk factors for extracapsular disease extension: Stage T2b or greater (100 patients), Gleason score 7-10 (40 patients), pretreatment prostate specific antigen (PSA) > 15 ng/ml (32 patients), or elevated serum PAP (25 patients). Patients received 41 Gy conformal EBRT to a limited pelvic field, followed 4 weeks later by a 103 Pd boost (prescription dose 80 Gy). Biochemical failure was defined as a PSA greater than 1 ng/ml (normal < 4 ng/ml). Results: The overall, actuarial freedom from biochemical failure at 4 years after treatment was 79%. In Cox-proportional hazard multivariate analysis, the strongest predictor of failure was elevated pretreatment acid phosphatase (p = 0.02), followed by Gleason score (p = 0.1), and PSA (p = 0.14). Conclusion: PAP was the strongest predictor of long-term biochemical failure. It may be a more accurate indicator of micrometastatic disease than PSA, and as such, we suggest that it be reconsidered for general use in radiation-treated patients

  2. Hospital Value-Based Purchasing (HVBP) – Heart Failure Scores

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — A list of hospitals participating in the Hospital VBP Program and their performance rates and scores for the Clinical Process of Care Heart Failure measures.

  3. Machine health prognostics using the Bayesian-inference-based probabilistic indication and high-order particle filtering framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jianbo

    2015-12-01

    Prognostics is much efficient to achieve zero-downtime performance, maximum productivity and proactive maintenance of machines. Prognostics intends to assess and predict the time evolution of machine health degradation so that machine failures can be predicted and prevented. A novel prognostics system is developed based on the data-model-fusion scheme using the Bayesian inference-based self-organizing map (SOM) and an integration of logistic regression (LR) and high-order particle filtering (HOPF). In this prognostics system, a baseline SOM is constructed to model the data distribution space of healthy machine under an assumption that predictable fault patterns are not available. Bayesian inference-based probability (BIP) derived from the baseline SOM is developed as a quantification indication of machine health degradation. BIP is capable of offering failure probability for the monitored machine, which has intuitionist explanation related to health degradation state. Based on those historic BIPs, the constructed LR and its modeling noise constitute a high-order Markov process (HOMP) to describe machine health propagation. HOPF is used to solve the HOMP estimation to predict the evolution of the machine health in the form of a probability density function (PDF). An on-line model update scheme is developed to adapt the Markov process changes to machine health dynamics quickly. The experimental results on a bearing test-bed illustrate the potential applications of the proposed system as an effective and simple tool for machine health prognostics.

  4. Single-gene prognostic signatures for advanced stage serous ovarian cancer based on 1257 patient samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fan; Yang, Kai; Deng, Kui; Zhang, Yuanyuan; Zhao, Weiwei; Xu, Huan; Rong, Zhiwei; Li, Kang

    2018-04-16

    We sought to identify stable single-gene prognostic signatures based on a large collection of advanced stage serous ovarian cancer (AS-OvCa) gene expression data and explore their functions. The empirical Bayes (EB) method was used to remove the batch effect and integrate 8 ovarian cancer datasets. Univariate Cox regression was used to evaluate the association between gene and overall survival (OS). The Database for Annotation, Visualization and Integrated Discovery (DAVID) tool was used for the functional annotation of genes for Gene Ontology (GO) terms and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathways. The batch effect was removed by the EB method, and 1257 patient samples were used for further analysis. We selected 341 single-gene prognostic signatures with FDR matrix organization, focal adhesion and DNA replication which are closely associated with cancer. We used the EB method to remove the batch effect of 8 datasets, integrated these datasets and identified stable prognosis signatures for AS-OvCa.

  5. Prognostics-based qualification of high-power white LEDs using Lévy process approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yung, Kam-Chuen; Sun, Bo; Jiang, Xiaopeng

    2017-01-01

    Due to their versatility in a variety of applications and the growing market demand, high-power white light-emitting diodes (LEDs) have attracted considerable attention. Reliability qualification testing is an essential part of the product development process to ensure the reliability of a new LED product before its release. However, the widely used IES-TM-21 method does not provide comprehensive reliability information. For more accurate and effective qualification, this paper presents a novel method based on prognostics techniques. Prognostics is an engineering technology predicting the future reliability or determining the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) of a product by assessing the extent of deviation or degradation from its expected normal operating conditions. A Lévy subordinator of a mixed Gamma and compound Poisson process is used to describe the actual degradation process of LEDs characterized by random sporadic small jumps of degradation degree, and the reliability function is derived for qualification with different distribution forms of jump sizes. The IES LM-80 test results reported by different LED vendors are used to develop and validate the qualification methodology. This study will be helpful for LED manufacturers to reduce the total test time and cost required to qualify the reliability of an LED product.

  6. Building an Image-Based System to automatically Score psoriasis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    G{'o}mez, D. Delgado; Carstensen, Jens Michael; Ersbøll, Bjarne Kjær

    2003-01-01

    Nowadays the medical tracking of dermatological diseases is imprecise. The main reason is the lack of suitable objective methods to evaluate the lesion. The severity of the disease is scored by doctors just through their visual examination. In this work, a system to take accurate images of dermat......Nowadays the medical tracking of dermatological diseases is imprecise. The main reason is the lack of suitable objective methods to evaluate the lesion. The severity of the disease is scored by doctors just through their visual examination. In this work, a system to take accurate images...

  7. Important prognostic factors in patients with skull base erosion from nasopharyngeal carcinoma after radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, T.-X.; Mai, W.-Y.; Teh, Bin S.; Hu, Y.-H.; Lu, Hsin H.; Chiu, J. Kam; Carpenter, L. Steven; Woo, Shiao Y.; Butler, E. Brian

    2001-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the long-term outcome and prognostic factors in patients with skull base erosion from nasopharyngeal carcinoma after initial radiotherapy (RT). Methods and Materials: From January 1985 to December 1986, 100 patients (71 males, 29 females) with a diagnosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma were found on computed tomography (CT) to have skull base erosion. The mean age was 41 years (range 16-66). Ninety-six patients had World Health Organization type III undifferentiated carcinoma, and 4 had type I. The metastatic workup, including chest radiography, liver ultrasound scanning, and liver function test was negative. All patients underwent external beam RT (EBRT) alone to 66-80 Gy during 6-8 weeks. A daily fraction size of 2 Gy was delivered using 60 Co or a linear accelerator. No patient received chemotherapy. All patients were followed at regular intervals after irradiation. The median follow-up was 22.3 months (range 2-174). Survival of the cohort was computed by the Kaplan-Meier method. The potential prognostic factors of survival were examined. Multivariate analyses were performed using the Cox regression model. Results: The 1, 2, 5, and 10-year overall survival rate for the cohort was 79%, 41%, 27%, and 13%, respectively. However, the subgroup of patients with both anterior cranial nerve (I-VIII) and posterior cranial nerve (IX-XII) involvement had a 5-year survival of only 7.7%. A difference in the time course of local recurrence and distant metastasis was observed. Both local recurrence and distant metastasis often occurred within the first 2 years after RT. However, local relapse continued to occur after 5 years. In contrast, no additional distant metastases were found after 5 years. The causes of death included local recurrence (n=59), distant metastasis (n=21), both local recurrence and distant metastasis (n = 1), and unrelated causes (n=5). After multivariate analysis, complete recovery of cranial nerve involvement, cranial nerve palsy, and

  8. Prognostics for Microgrid Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Abhinav

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics is the science of predicting future performance and potential failures based on targeted condition monitoring. Moving away from the traditional reliability centric view, prognostics aims at detecting and quantifying the time to impending failures. This advance warning provides the opportunity to take actions that can preserve uptime, reduce cost of damage, or extend the life of the component. The talk will focus on the concepts and basics of prognostics from the viewpoint of condition-based systems health management. Differences with other techniques used in systems health management and philosophies of prognostics used in other domains will be shown. Examples relevant to micro grid systems and subsystems will be used to illustrate various types of prediction scenarios and the resources it take to set up a desired prognostic system. Specifically, the implementation results for power storage and power semiconductor components will demonstrate specific solution approaches of prognostics. The role of constituent elements of prognostics, such as model, prediction algorithms, failure threshold, run-to-failure data, requirements and specifications, and post-prognostic reasoning will be explained. A discussion on performance evaluation and performance metrics will conclude the technical discussion followed by general comments on open research problems and challenges in prognostics.

  9. SIGI: score-based identification of genomic islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merkl Rainer

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genomic islands can be observed in many microbial genomes. These stretches of DNA have a conspicuous composition with regard to sequence or encoded functions. Genomic islands are assumed to be frequently acquired via horizontal gene transfer. For the analysis of genome structure and the study of horizontal gene transfer, it is necessary to reliably identify and characterize these islands. Results A scoring scheme on codon frequencies Score_G1G2(cdn = log(f_G2(cdn / f_G1(cdn was utilized. To analyse genes of a species G1 and to test their relatedness to species G2, scores were determined by applying the formula to log-odds derived from mean codon frequencies of the two genomes. A non-redundant set of nearly 400 codon usage tables comprising microbial species was derived; its members were used alternatively at position G2. Genes having at least one score value above a species-specific and dynamically determined cut-off value were analysed further. By means of cluster analysis, genes were identified that comprise clusters of statistically significant size. These clusters were predicted as genomic islands. Finally and individually for each of these genes, the taxonomical relation among those species responsible for significant scores was interpreted. The validity of the approach and its limitations were made plausible by an extensive analysis of natural genes and synthetic ones aimed at modelling the process of gene amelioration. Conclusions The method reliably allows to identify genomic island and the likely origin of alien genes.

  10. [Comparison of the prognostic value of mortality Child Pugh Score and forecasting models of chronic liver disease in patients with decompensated cirrhosis of the Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Peru].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valenzuela Granados, Vanessa; Salazar-Quiñones, Maria; Cheng-Zárate, Lester; Malpica-Castillo, Alexander; Huerta Mercado, Jorge; Ticse, Ray

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of prognosis is an essential part of the evaluation of all patients with liver cirrhosis. Currently continues to develop new models to optimize forecast accuracy mortality score is calculated by the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD). Compare the prognostic accuracy of hospital mortality and short-term mortality CTP, MELD and other models in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis. Prospective descriptive study, comparison type of diagnostic test that included 84 patients. The score CTP, MELD and other models were calculated on the first day of hospitalization. The prognostic accuracy of mortality was assessed by the area under the ROC curve (AUROCs) of score CTP, MELD and other models. Hospital mortality and mortality in the short-term monitoring was 20 (23.8%) and 44 (52.4%), respectively. The AUROCs CTP, MELD, MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, RefitMELD and RefitMELD Na to predict hospital mortality was 0.4488, 0.5645, 0.5426, 0.5578, 0.5719, 0.5598 and 0.5754; and to predict short-term mortality was 0.5386, 0.5747, 0.5770, 0.5781, 0.5631, 0.5881 and 0.5693, respectively. By comparing each AUROCs of the CTP score, MELD and other models proved to be no better than the other (p>0.05). This study has not shown the predictive utility of the CTP score, MELD and other models (MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit Refit MELD and MELD Na) to evaluate hospital mortality or short-term mortality in a sample of patients with decompensated cirrhosis of the Hospital Cayetano Heredia.

  11. A model-based prognostic approach to predict interconnect failure using impedance analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, Dae Il; Yoon, Jeong Ah [Dept. of System Design and Control Engineering. Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The reliability of electronic assemblies is largely affected by the health of interconnects, such as solder joints, which provide mechanical, electrical and thermal connections between circuit components. During field lifecycle conditions, interconnects are often subjected to a DC open circuit, one of the most common interconnect failure modes, due to cracking. An interconnect damaged by cracking is sometimes extremely hard to detect when it is a part of a daisy-chain structure, neighboring with other healthy interconnects that have not yet cracked. This cracked interconnect may seem to provide a good electrical contact due to the compressive load applied by the neighboring healthy interconnects, but it can cause the occasional loss of electrical continuity under operational and environmental loading conditions in field applications. Thus, cracked interconnects can lead to the intermittent failure of electronic assemblies and eventually to permanent failure of the product or the system. This paper introduces a model-based prognostic approach to quantitatively detect and predict interconnect failure using impedance analysis and particle filtering. Impedance analysis was previously reported as a sensitive means of detecting incipient changes at the surface of interconnects, such as cracking, based on the continuous monitoring of RF impedance. To predict the time to failure, particle filtering was used as a prognostic approach using the Paris model to address the fatigue crack growth. To validate this approach, mechanical fatigue tests were conducted with continuous monitoring of RF impedance while degrading the solder joints under test due to fatigue cracking. The test results showed the RF impedance consistently increased as the solder joints were degraded due to the growth of cracks, and particle filtering predicted the time to failure of the interconnects similarly to their actual timesto- failure based on the early sensitivity of RF impedance.

  12. Optimal protein library design using recombination or point mutations based on sequence-based scoring functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantazes, Robert J; Saraf, Manish C; Maranas, Costas D

    2007-08-01

    In this paper, we introduce and test two new sequence-based protein scoring systems (i.e. S1, S2) for assessing the likelihood that a given protein hybrid will be functional. By binning together amino acids with similar properties (i.e. volume, hydrophobicity and charge) the scoring systems S1 and S2 allow for the quantification of the severity of mismatched interactions in the hybrids. The S2 scoring system is found to be able to significantly functionally enrich a cytochrome P450 library over other scoring methods. Given this scoring base, we subsequently constructed two separate optimization formulations (i.e. OPTCOMB and OPTOLIGO) for optimally designing protein combinatorial libraries involving recombination or mutations, respectively. Notably, two separate versions of OPTCOMB are generated (i.e. model M1, M2) with the latter allowing for position-dependent parental fragment skipping. Computational benchmarking results demonstrate the efficacy of models OPTCOMB and OPTOLIGO to generate high scoring libraries of a prespecified size.

  13. dBBQs: dataBase of Bacterial Quality scores

    OpenAIRE

    Wanchai, Visanu; Patumcharoenpol, Preecha; Nookaew, Intawat; Ussery, David

    2017-01-01

    Background: It is well-known that genome sequencing technologies are becoming significantly cheaper and faster. As a result of this, the exponential growth in sequencing data in public databases allows us to explore ever growing large collections of genome sequences. However, it is less known that the majority of available sequenced genome sequences in public databases are not complete, drafts of varying qualities. We have calculated quality scores for around 100,000 bacterial genomes from al...

  14. A prognostic model for temporal courses that combines temporal abstraction and case-based reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Rainer; Gierl, Lothar

    2005-03-01

    Since clinical management of patients and clinical research are essentially time-oriented endeavours, reasoning about time has become a hot topic in medical informatics. Here we present a method for prognosis of temporal courses, which combines temporal abstractions with case-based reasoning. It is useful for application domains where neither well-known standards, nor known periodicity, nor a complete domain theory exist. We have used our method in two prognostic applications. The first one deals with prognosis of the kidney function for intensive care patients. The idea is to elicit impairments on time, especially to warn against threatening kidney failures. Our second application deals with a completely different domain, namely geographical medicine. Its intention is to compute early warnings against approaching infectious diseases, which are characterised by irregular cyclic occurrences. So far, we have applied our program on influenza and bronchitis. In this paper, we focus on influenza forecast and show first experimental results.

  15. Prognostic Health Monitoring System: Component Selection Based on Risk Criteria and Economic Benefit Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, Binh T.; Agarwal, Vivek; Lybeck, Nancy J.; Tawfik, Magdy S.

    2012-01-01

    Prognostic health monitoring (PHM) is a proactive approach to monitor the ability of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) to withstand structural, thermal, and chemical loadings over the SSCs planned service lifespan. The current efforts to extend the operational license lifetime of the aging fleet of U.S. nuclear power plants from 40 to 60 years and beyond can benefit from a systematic application of PHM technology. Implementing a PHM system would strengthen the safety of nuclear power plants, reduce plant outage time, and reduce operation and maintenance costs. However, a nuclear power plant has thousands of SSCs, so implementing a PHM system that covers all SSCs requires careful planning and prioritization. This paper therefore focuses on a component selection that is based on the analysis of a component's failure probability, risk, and cost. Ultimately, the decision on component selection depends on the overall economical benefits arising from safety and operational considerations associated with implementing the PHM system. (author)

  16. A Foundation for Stressor-Based Prognostics for Next Generation Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jarrell, Don; Sisk, Daniel; Bond, Leonard

    2002-01-01

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) scientists are performing research under the Department of Energy Nuclear Energy Research Initiative (NERI) program, to develop a methodology for accurate identification and prediction of equipment faults in critical machinery. The 3-year project, on-line intelligent self-diagnostic monitoring system (SDMS) for next generation nuclear power plants is scheduled for completion at the end of FY 2002. The research involves running machinery to failure in the Laboratory by the introduction of intentional faults. During testing, advanced diagnostic/prognostic sensors and analysis systems monitor the equipment stressor levels, correlate them with expected degradation rates, and predict the resulting machinery performance levels and residual lifetime. Application of a first principles physics-based approach is expected to produce prognostic methodologies of significantly higher accuracies than are currently available. This paper reviews the evolution and current state of the maintenance art. It presents a key measurement philosophy that results from the use of condition based maintenance (CBM) as a fundamental investigative precept, and explains how this approach impacts degradation and failure measurement and prediction accuracy. It then examines how this measurement approach is applied in sensing and correlating pump stressors with regard to degradation rate and time to equipment failure. The specifics are examined on how this approach is being applied at PNNL to cavitation and vibration phenomena in a centrifugal pump. Preliminary vibration analysis results show an excellent correspondence between the (laser) motor position indication, the vibration response, and the dynamic force loading on the bearings. Orbital harmonic vibratory motion of the pump and motor appear to be readily correlated through the FFTs of all three sensing systems. (authors)

  17. Investigating a multigene prognostic assay based on significant pathways for Luminal A breast cancer through gene expression profile analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Haiyan; Yang, Mei; Zhang, Xiaolan

    2018-04-01

    The present study aimed to investigate potential recurrence-risk biomarkers based on significant pathways for Luminal A breast cancer through gene expression profile analysis. Initially, the gene expression profiles of Luminal A breast cancer patients were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas database. The differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified using a Limma package and the hierarchical clustering analysis was conducted for the DEGs. In addition, the functional pathways were screened using Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathway enrichment analyses and rank ratio calculation. The multigene prognostic assay was exploited based on the statistically significant pathways and its prognostic function was tested using train set and verified using the gene expression data and survival data of Luminal A breast cancer patients downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus. A total of 300 DEGs were identified between good and poor outcome groups, including 176 upregulated genes and 124 downregulated genes. The DEGs may be used to effectively distinguish Luminal A samples with different prognoses verified by hierarchical clustering analysis. There were 9 pathways screened as significant pathways and a total of 18 DEGs involved in these 9 pathways were identified as prognostic biomarkers. According to the survival analysis and receiver operating characteristic curve, the obtained 18-gene prognostic assay exhibited good prognostic function with high sensitivity and specificity to both the train and test samples. In conclusion the 18-gene prognostic assay including the key genes, transcription factor 7-like 2, anterior parietal cortex and lymphocyte enhancer factor-1 may provide a new method for predicting outcomes and may be conducive to the promotion of precision medicine for Luminal A breast cancer.

  18. Distribution of model-based multipoint heterogeneity lod scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Chao; Morris, Nathan; Xing, Guan

    2010-12-01

    The distribution of two-point heterogeneity lod scores (HLOD) has been intensively investigated because the conventional χ(2) approximation to the likelihood ratio test is not directly applicable. However, there was no study investigating th e distribution of the multipoint HLOD despite its wide application. Here we want to point out that, compared with the two-point HLOD, the multipoint HLOD essentially tests for homogeneity given linkage and follows a relatively simple limiting distribution ½χ²₀+ ½χ²₁, which can be obtained by established statistical theory. We further examine the theoretical result by simulation studies. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  19. Predicting stabilizing treatment outcomes for complex posttraumatic stress disorder and dissociative identity disorder: an expertise-based prognostic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baars, E.W.; van der Hart, O.; Nijenhuis, E.R.S.; Chu, J.A.; Glas, G.; Draaijer, N.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an expertise-based prognostic model for the treatment of complex posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and dissociative identity disorder (DID).We developed a survey in 2 rounds: In the first round we surveyed 42 experienced therapists (22 DID and 20 complex

  20. Natural history of alkaptonuria revisited: analyses based on scoring systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganath, Lakshminarayan R; Cox, Trevor F

    2011-12-01

    Increased circulating homogentisic acid in body fluids occurs in alkaptonuria (AKU) due to lack of enzyme homogentisate dioxygenase leading in turn to conversion of HGA to a pigmented melanin-like polymer, known as ochronosis. The tissue damage in AKU is due to ochronosis. A potential treatment, a drug called nitisinone, to decrease formation of HGA is available. However, deploying nitisinone effectively requires its administration at the most optimal time in the natural history. AKU has a long apparent latent period before overt ochronosis develops. The rate of change of ochronosis and its consequences over time following its recognition has not been fully described in any quantitative manner. Two potential tools are described that were used to quantitate disease burden in AKU. One tool describes scoring the clinical features that includes clinical assessments, investigations and questionnaires in 15 patients with AKU. The second tool describes a scoring system that only includes items obtained from questionnaires in 44 people with AKU. Analysis of the data reveals distinct phases of the disease, a pre-ochronotic phase and an ochronotic phase. The ochronotic phase appears to demonstrate an earlier slower progression followed by a rapidly progressive phase. The rate of change of the disease will have implications for monitoring the course of the disease as well as decide on the most appropriate time that treatment should be started for it to be effective either in prevention or arrest of the disease.

  1. Towards A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gautam Biswas

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model-driven methodology for predict- ing the remaining useful life of electrolytic capacitors. This methodology adopts a Kalman filter approach in conjunction with an empirical state-based degradation model to predict the degradation of capacitor parameters through the life of the capacitor. Electrolytic capacitors are important components of systems that range from power supplies on critical avion- ics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their comparatively low reliability and given their critical role in the system, they are good candidates for component level prognostics and health management. Prognostics provides a way to assess remain- ing useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. This paper proposes and empirical degradation model and discusses experimental results for an accelerated aging test performed on a set of identical capacitors subjected to electrical stress. The data forms the basis for developing the Kalman-filter based remaining life prediction algorithm.

  2. Prognostic model based on nailfold capillaroscopy for identifying Raynaud's phenomenon patients at high risk for the development of a scleroderma spectrum disorder: PRINCE (prognostic index for nailfold capillaroscopic examination).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingegnoli, Francesca; Boracchi, Patrizia; Gualtierotti, Roberta; Lubatti, Chiara; Meani, Laura; Zahalkova, Lenka; Zeni, Silvana; Fantini, Flavio

    2008-07-01

    To construct a prognostic index based on nailfold capillaroscopic examinations that is capable of predicting the 5-year transition from isolated Raynaud's phenomenon (RP) to RP secondary to scleroderma spectrum disorders (SSDs). The study involved 104 consecutive adult patients with a clinical history of isolated RP, and the index was externally validated in another cohort of 100 patients with the same characteristics. Both groups were followed up for 1-8 years. Six variables were examined because of their potential prognostic relevance (branching, enlarged and giant loops, capillary disorganization, microhemorrhages, and the number of capillaries). The only factors that played a significant prognostic role were the presence of giant loops (hazard ratio [HR] 2.64, P = 0.008) and microhemorrhages (HR 2.33, P = 0.01), and the number of capillaries (analyzed as a continuous variable). The adjusted prognostic role of these factors was evaluated by means of multivariate regression analysis, and the results were used to construct an algorithm-based prognostic index. The model was internally and externally validated. Our prognostic capillaroscopic index identifies RP patients in whom the risk of developing SSDs is high. This model is a weighted combination of different capillaroscopy parameters that allows physicians to stratify RP patients easily, using a relatively simple diagram to deduce the prognosis. Our results suggest that this index could be used in clinical practice, and its further inclusion in prospective studies will undoubtedly help in exploring its potential in predicting treatment response.

  3. The prognostic utility of the SYNTAX score on 1-year outcomes after revascularization with zotarolimus- and everolimus-eluting stents: a substudy of the RESOLUTE All Comers Trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garg, Scot; Serruys, Patrick W; Silber, Sigmund

    2011-01-01

    This study assessed the ability of the SYNTAX score (SXscore) to stratify risk in patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using zotarolimus-eluting or everolimus-eluting stents.......This study assessed the ability of the SYNTAX score (SXscore) to stratify risk in patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using zotarolimus-eluting or everolimus-eluting stents....

  4. Improving Computational Efficiency of Prediction in Model-Based Prognostics Using the Unscented Transform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigle, Matthew John; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2010-01-01

    Model-based prognostics captures system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail, in order to obtain accurate predictions of end of life (EOL). EOL is predicted based on the estimated current state distribution of a component and expected profiles of future usage. In general, this requires simulations of the component using the underlying models. In this paper, we develop a simulation-based prediction methodology that achieves computational efficiency by performing only the minimal number of simulations needed in order to accurately approximate the mean and variance of the complete EOL distribution. This is performed through the use of the unscented transform, which predicts the means and covariances of a distribution passed through a nonlinear transformation. In this case, the EOL simulation acts as that nonlinear transformation. In this paper, we review the unscented transform, and describe how this concept is applied to efficient EOL prediction. As a case study, we develop a physics-based model of a solenoid valve, and perform simulation experiments to demonstrate improved computational efficiency without sacrificing prediction accuracy.

  5. The Prognostic Value of a Four-Dimensional CT Angiography-Based Collateral Grading Scale for Reperfusion Therapy in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Sheng; Chen, Weili; Tang, Huan; Han, Quan; Yan, Shenqiang; Zhang, Xiaocheng; Chen, Qingmeng; Parsons, Mark; Wang, Shaoshi; Lou, Min

    2016-01-01

    Leptomeningeal collaterals, which affects tissue fate, are still challenging to assess. Four-dimensional CT angiography (4D CTA) originated from CT perfusion (CTP) provides the possibility of non-invasive and time-resolved assessment of leptomeningeal collateral flow. We sought to develop a comprehensive rating system to integrate the speed and extent of collateral flow on 4D CTA, and investigate its prognostic value for reperfusion therapy in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients. We retrospectively studied 80 patients with M1 ± internal carotid artery (ICA) occlusion who had baseline CTP before intravenous thrombolysis. The velocity and extent of collaterals were evaluated by regional leptomeningeal collateral score on peak phase (rLMC-P) and temporally fused intensity projections (tMIP) (rLMC-M) on 4D CTA, respectively. The cutoffs of rLMC-P and rLMC-M score for predicting good outcome (mRS score ≤ 2) were integrated to develop the collateral grading scale (CGS) (rating from 0-2). The CGS score was correlated with 3-months mRS score (non-recanalizers: ρ = -0.495, p = 0.01; recanalizers: ρ = -0.671, p < 0.001). Patients with intermediate or good collaterals (CGS score of 1 and 2) who recanalized were more likely to have good outcome than those without recanalization (p = 0.038, p = 0.018), while there was no significant difference in outcome in patients with poor collaterals (CGS score of 0) stratified by recanalization (p = 0.227). Identification of collaterals based on CGS may help to select good responders to reperfusion therapy in patients with large artery occlusion.

  6. Development and Validation of a Lifecycle-based Prognostics Architecture with Test Bed Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hines, J. Wesley [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Upadhyaya, Belle [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Sharp, Michael [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jeffries, Brien [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Nam, Alan [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Strong, Eric [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Tong, Matthew [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Welz, Zachary [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Barbieri, Federico [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Langford, Seth [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Meinweiser, Gregory [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Weeks, Matthew [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2014-11-06

    On-line monitoring and tracking of nuclear plant system and component degradation is being investigated as a method for improving the safety, reliability, and maintainability of aging nuclear power plants. Accurate prediction of the current degradation state of system components and structures is important for accurate estimates of their remaining useful life (RUL). The correct quantification and propagation of both the measurement uncertainty and model uncertainty is necessary for quantifying the uncertainty of the RUL prediction. This research project developed and validated methods to perform RUL estimation throughout the lifecycle of plant components. Prognostic methods should seamlessly operate from beginning of component life (BOL) to end of component life (EOL). We term this "Lifecycle Prognostics." When a component is put into use, the only information available may be past failure times of similar components used in similar conditions, and the predicted failure distribution can be estimated with reliability methods such as Weibull Analysis (Type I Prognostics). As the component operates, it begins to degrade and consume its available life. This life consumption may be a function of system stresses, and the failure distribution should be updated to account for the system operational stress levels (Type II Prognostics). When degradation becomes apparent, this information can be used to again improve the RUL estimate (Type III Prognostics). This research focused on developing prognostics algorithms for the three types of prognostics, developing uncertainty quantification methods for each of the algorithms, and, most importantly, developing a framework using Bayesian methods to transition between prognostic model types and update failure distribution estimates as new information becomes available. The developed methods were then validated on a range of accelerated degradation test beds. The ultimate goal of prognostics is to provide an accurate assessment for

  7. Prognostic significance of Gleason score 7 (3+4 and Gleason score 7 (4+3 in prostatic adenocarcinoma in relation to clinical stage, androgen tissue status and degree of neuroendocrine differentiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mijović M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Prognosis and choice of treatment of adenocarcinoma of the prostate (ADCP directly depend on the numerous of predictive factors, among which the most important are summary histological tumor grade (Gleason score, which is the sum of the first and second dominant histological grade and clinical stage. According to recent research these factors include androgen tissue status and degree of neuroendocrine differentiation. The importance of the first and second dominant histological grade becomes particularly important in ADCP Gleason score 7. Tumors with worse prognosis considered to be ADCP of higher Gleason score, the advanced clinical stage, androgen independent tumors and tumors that show a higher degree of neuroendocrine differentiation. The aim of the study was to determine the predictive significance of ADCP Gleason score 7 (3+4 and ADCP Gleason score 7 (4+3 in relation to clinical stage, androgen tissue status and degree of focal neuroendocrine differentiation. The study included 33 ADCP of Gleason score 7,26 (78.79% ADCP 7 (3+4 and 7 (21.21% ADCP 7 (4+3. All tumors are most often diagnosed with stage D2, when there are already distant metastases. ADCP of Gleason score 7 (4+3 were diagnosed more often at this stage, among them there are more androgen independent tumors and they show a greater degree of focal neuroendocrine differentiation. All the results are in accordance with data from the literature suggesting that ADCP of Gleason score 7 (4+3 have a worse prognosis than ADCP of Gleason score 7 (3 +4.

  8. Prognostic Value of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Score in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Patients With Left Ventricular Dysfunction (from the EPHESUS Trial).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popovic, Batric; Girerd, Nicolas; Rossignol, Patrick; Agrinier, Nelly; Camenzind, Edoardo; Fay, Renaud; Pitt, Bertram; Zannad, Faiez

    2016-11-15

    The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score remains a robust prediction tool for short-term and midterm outcome in the patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). However, the validity of this risk score in patients with STEMI with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) remains unclear. A total of 2,854 patients with STEMI with early coronary revascularization participating in the randomized EPHESUS (Epleronone Post-Acute Myocardial Infarction Heart Failure Efficacy and Survival Study) trial were analyzed. TIMI risk score was calculated at baseline, and its predictive value was evaluated using C-indexes from Cox models. The increase in reclassification of other variables in addition to TIMI score was assessed using the net reclassification index. TIMI risk score had a poor predictive accuracy for all-cause mortality (C-index values at 30 days and 1 year ≤0.67) and recurrent myocardial infarction (MI; C-index values ≤0.60). Among TIMI score items, diabetes/hypertension/angina, heart rate >100 beats/min, and systolic blood pressure model, lower LVEF, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and previous MI were significantly associated with all-cause mortality. The predictive accuracy of this model, which included LVEF and eGFR, was fair for both 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality (C-index values ranging from 0.71 to 0.75). In conclusion, TIMI risk score demonstrates poor discrimination in predicting mortality or recurrent MI in patients with STEMI with reduced LVEF. LVEF and eGFR are major factors that should not be ignored by predictive risk scores in this population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. An Optimization Method for Condition Based Maintenance of Aircraft Fleet Considering Prognostics Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Feng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An optimization method for condition based maintenance (CBM of aircraft fleet considering prognostics uncertainty is proposed. The CBM and dispatch process of aircraft fleet is analyzed first, and the alternative strategy sets for single aircraft are given. Then, the optimization problem of fleet CBM with lower maintenance cost and dispatch risk is translated to the combinatorial optimization problem of single aircraft strategy. Remain useful life (RUL distribution of the key line replaceable Module (LRM has been transformed into the failure probability of the aircraft and the fleet health status matrix is established. And the calculation method of the costs and risks for mission based on health status matrix and maintenance matrix is given. Further, an optimization method for fleet dispatch and CBM under acceptable risk is proposed based on an improved genetic algorithm. Finally, a fleet of 10 aircrafts is studied to verify the proposed method. The results shows that it could realize optimization and control of the aircraft fleet oriented to mission success.

  10. Maintenance-based prognostics of nuclear plant equipment for long-term operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Welz, Zachary; Coble, Jamie; Upadhyaya, Belle; Hines, Wes [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (United States)

    2017-08-15

    While industry understands the importance of keeping equipment operational and well maintained, the importance of tracking maintenance information in reliability models is often overlooked. Prognostic models can be used to predict the failure times of critical equipment, but more often than not, these models assume that all maintenance actions are the same or do not consider maintenance at all. This study investigates the influence of integrating maintenance information on prognostic model prediction accuracy. By incorporating maintenance information to develop maintenance-dependent prognostic models, prediction accuracy was improved by more than 40% compared with traditional maintenance-independent models. This study acts as a proof of concept, showing the importance of utilizing maintenance information in modern prognostics for industrial equipment.

  11. Association of a Dietary Score with Incident Type 2 Diabetes: The Dietary-Based Diabetes-Risk Score (DDS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ligia J Dominguez

    Full Text Available Strong evidence supports that dietary modifications may decrease incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM. Numerous diabetes risk models/scores have been developed, but most do not rely specifically on dietary variables or do not fully capture the overall dietary pattern. We prospectively assessed the association of a dietary-based diabetes-risk score (DDS, which integrates optimal food patterns, with the risk of developing T2DM in the SUN ("Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra" longitudinal study.We assessed 17,292 participants initially free of diabetes, followed-up for a mean of 9.2 years. A validated 136-item FFQ was administered at baseline. Taking into account previous literature, the DDS positively weighted vegetables, fruit, whole cereals, nuts, coffee, low-fat dairy, fiber, PUFA, and alcohol in moderate amounts; while it negatively weighted red meat, processed meats and sugar-sweetened beverages. Energy-adjusted quintiles of each item (with exception of moderate alcohol consumption that received either 0 or 5 points were used to build the DDS (maximum: 60 points. Incident T2DM was confirmed through additional detailed questionnaires and review of medical records of participants. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for socio-demographic and anthropometric parameters, health-related habits, and clinical variables to estimate hazard ratios (HR of T2DM.We observed 143 T2DM confirmed cases during follow-up. Better baseline conformity with the DDS was associated with lower incidence of T2DM (multivariable-adjusted HR for intermediate (25-39 points vs. low (11-24 category 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI 0.21, 0.89]; and for high (40-60 vs. low category 0.32 [95% CI: 0.14, 0.69]; p for linear trend: 0.019.The DDS, a simple score exclusively based on dietary components, showed a strong inverse association with incident T2DM. This score may be applicable in clinical practice to improve dietary habits of subjects at high risk of T2DM

  12. Prognostic value and molecular correlates of a CT image-based quantitative pleural contact index in early stage NSCLC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Juheon; Cui, Yi; Li, Bailiang; Wu, Jia; Gensheimer, Michael F. [Stanford University School of Medicine, Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford, CA (United States); Sun, Xiaoli [First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University, Radiotherapy Department, Hangzhou, Zhejiang (China); Li, Dengwang [Stanford University School of Medicine, Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford, CA (United States); Shandong Normal University, Shandong Province Key Laboratory of Medical Physics and Image Processing Technology, Institute of Biomedical Sciences, School of Physics and Electronics, Jinan Shi (China); Loo, Billy W.; Li, Ruijiang [Stanford University School of Medicine, Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford, CA (United States); Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford Cancer Institute, Stanford, CA (United States); Diehn, Maximilian [Stanford University School of Medicine, Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford, CA (United States); Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford Cancer Institute, Stanford, CA (United States); Stanford University School of Medicine, Institute for Stem Cell Biology and Regenerative Medicine, Stanford, CA (United States)

    2018-02-15

    To evaluate the prognostic value and molecular basis of a CT-derived pleural contact index (PCI) in early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We retrospectively analysed seven NSCLC cohorts. A quantitative PCI was defined on CT as the length of tumour-pleura interface normalised by tumour diameter. We evaluated the prognostic value of PCI in a discovery cohort (n = 117) and tested in an external cohort (n = 88) of stage I NSCLC. Additionally, we identified the molecular correlates and built a gene expression-based surrogate of PCI using another cohort of 89 patients. To further evaluate the prognostic relevance, we used four datasets totalling 775 stage I patients with publically available gene expression data and linked survival information. At a cutoff of 0.8, PCI stratified patients for overall survival in both imaging cohorts (log-rank p = 0.0076, 0.0304). Extracellular matrix (ECM) remodelling was enriched among genes associated with PCI (p = 0.0003). The genomic surrogate of PCI remained an independent predictor of overall survival in the gene expression cohorts (hazard ratio: 1.46, p = 0.0007) adjusting for age, gender, and tumour stage. CT-derived pleural contact index is associated with ECM remodelling and may serve as a noninvasive prognostic marker in early stage NSCLC. (orig.)

  13. Predicting stabilizing treatment outcomes for complex posttraumatic stress disorder and dissociative identity disorder: an expertise-based prognostic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baars, Erik W; van der Hart, Onno; Nijenhuis, Ellert R S; Chu, James A; Glas, Gerrit; Draijer, Nel

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an expertise-based prognostic model for the treatment of complex posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and dissociative identity disorder (DID). We developed a survey in 2 rounds: In the first round we surveyed 42 experienced therapists (22 DID and 20 complex PTSD therapists), and in the second round we surveyed a subset of 22 of the 42 therapists (13 DID and 9 complex PTSD therapists). First, we drew on therapists' knowledge of prognostic factors for stabilization-oriented treatment of complex PTSD and DID. Second, therapists prioritized a list of prognostic factors by estimating the size of each variable's prognostic effect; we clustered these factors according to content and named the clusters. Next, concept mapping methodology and statistical analyses (including principal components analyses) were used to transform individual judgments into weighted group judgments for clusters of items. A prognostic model, based on consensually determined estimates of effect sizes, of 8 clusters containing 51 factors for both complex PTSD and DID was formed. It includes the clusters lack of motivation, lack of healthy relationships, lack of healthy therapeutic relationships, lack of other internal and external resources, serious Axis I comorbidity, serious Axis II comorbidity, poor attachment, and self-destruction. In addition, a set of 5 DID-specific items was constructed. The model is supportive of the current phase-oriented treatment model, emphasizing the strengthening of the therapeutic relationship and the patient's resources in the initial stabilization phase. Further research is needed to test the model's statistical and clinical validity.

  14. Validation of APACHE II scoring system at 24 hours after admission as a prognostic tool in urosepsis: A prospective observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sundaramoorthy VijayGanapathy

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Urosepsis implies clinically evident severe infection of urinary tract with features of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS. We validate the role of a single Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II score at 24 hours after admission in predicting mortality in urosepsis. Materials and Methods: A prospective observational study was done in 178 patients admitted with urosepsis in the Department of Urology, in a tertiary care institute from January 2015 to August 2016. Patients >18 years diagnosed as urosepsis using SIRS criteria with positive urine or blood culture for bacteria were included. At 24 hours after admission to intensive care unit, APACHE II score was calculated using 12 physiological variables, age and chronic health. Results: Mean±standard deviation (SD APACHE II score was 26.03±7.03. It was 24.31±6.48 in survivors and 32.39±5.09 in those expired (p<0.001. Among patients undergoing surgery, mean±SD score was higher (30.74±4.85 than among survivors (24.30±6.54 (p<0.001. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis revealed area under curve (AUC of 0.825 with cutoff 25.5 being 94.7% sensitive and 56.4% specific to predict mortality. Mean±SD score in those undergoing surgery was 25.22±6.70 and was lesser than those who did not undergo surgery (28.44±7.49 (p=0.007. ROC analysis revealed AUC of 0.760 with cutoff 25.5 being 94.7% sensitive and 45.6% specific to predict mortality even after surgery. Conclusions: A single APACHE II score assessed at 24 hours after admission was able to predict morbidity, mortality, need for surgical intervention, length of hospitalization, treatment success and outcome in urosepsis patients.

  15. Validation of APACHE II scoring system at 24 hours after admission as a prognostic tool in urosepsis: A prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    VijayGanapathy, Sundaramoorthy; Karthikeyan, VIlvapathy Senguttuvan; Sreenivas, Jayaram; Mallya, Ashwin; Keshavamurthy, Ramaiah

    2017-11-01

    Urosepsis implies clinically evident severe infection of urinary tract with features of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). We validate the role of a single Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score at 24 hours after admission in predicting mortality in urosepsis. A prospective observational study was done in 178 patients admitted with urosepsis in the Department of Urology, in a tertiary care institute from January 2015 to August 2016. Patients >18 years diagnosed as urosepsis using SIRS criteria with positive urine or blood culture for bacteria were included. At 24 hours after admission to intensive care unit, APACHE II score was calculated using 12 physiological variables, age and chronic health. Mean±standard deviation (SD) APACHE II score was 26.03±7.03. It was 24.31±6.48 in survivors and 32.39±5.09 in those expired (p<0.001). Among patients undergoing surgery, mean±SD score was higher (30.74±4.85) than among survivors (24.30±6.54) (p<0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed area under curve (AUC) of 0.825 with cutoff 25.5 being 94.7% sensitive and 56.4% specific to predict mortality. Mean±SD score in those undergoing surgery was 25.22±6.70 and was lesser than those who did not undergo surgery (28.44±7.49) (p=0.007). ROC analysis revealed AUC of 0.760 with cutoff 25.5 being 94.7% sensitive and 45.6% specific to predict mortality even after surgery. A single APACHE II score assessed at 24 hours after admission was able to predict morbidity, mortality, need for surgical intervention, length of hospitalization, treatment success and outcome in urosepsis patients.

  16. Work ability as prognostic risk marker of disability pension : Single-item work ability score versus multi-item work ability index

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, C.A.M.; Rhenen, van W.; Groothoff, J.W.; Klink, van der J.J.L.; Twisk, W.R.; Heymans, M.W.

    2014-01-01

    Work ability predicts future disability pension (DP). A single-item work ability score (WAS) is emerging as a measure for work ability. This study compared single-item WAS with the multi-item work ability index (WAI) in its ability to identify workers at risk of DP.

  17. Work ability as prognostic risk marker of disability pension: single-item work ability score versus multi-item work ability index

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, C.A.M.; van Rhenen, W.; Groothoff, J.W.; van der Klink, J.J.L.; Twisk, J.W.R.; Heymans, M.W.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Work ability predicts future disability pension (DP). A single-item work ability score (WAS) is emerging as a measure for work ability. This study compared single-item WAS with the multi-item work ability index (WAI) in its ability to identify workers at risk of DP. Methods This

  18. Work ability as prognostic risk marker of disability pension : single-item work ability score versus multi-item work ability index

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, Corne A. M.; van Rhenen, Willem; Groothoff, Johan W.; van der Klink, Jac J. L.; Twisk, Jos W. R.; Heymans, Martijn W.

    Objectives Work ability predicts future disability pension (DP). A single-item work ability score (WAS) is emerging as a measure for work ability. This study compared single-item WAS with the multi-item work ability index (WAI) in its ability to identify workers at risk of DP. Methods This

  19. Diagnosis and Prognostic of Wastewater Treatment System Based on Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dan; Yang, Haizhen; Liang, XiaoFeng

    2010-11-01

    Wastewater treatment is a complicated and dynamic process. The treatment effect can be influenced by many variables in microbial, chemical and physical aspects. These variables are always uncertain. Due to the complex biological reaction mechanisms, the highly time-varying and multivariable aspects, the diagnosis and prognostic of wastewater treatment system are still difficult in practice. Bayesian network (BN) is one of the best methods for dealing with uncertainty in the artificial intelligence field. Because of the powerful inference ability and convenient decision mechanism, BN can be employed into the model description and influencing factor analysis of wastewater treatment system with great flexibility and applicability.In this paper, taking modified sequencing batch reactor (MSBR) as an analysis object, BN model was constructed according to the influent water quality, operational condition and effluent effect data of MSBR, and then a novel approach based on BN is proposed to analyze the influencing factors of the wastewater treatment system. The approach presented gives an effective tool for diagnosing and predicting analysis of the wastewater treatment system. On the basis of the influent water quality and operational condition, effluent effect can be predicted. Moreover, according to the effluent effect, the influent water quality and operational condition also can be deduced.

  20. Conditional net survival: Relevant prognostic information for colorectal cancer survivors. A French population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drouillard, Antoine; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Rollot, Fabien; Faivre, Jean; Jooste, Valérie; Lepage, Côme

    2015-07-01

    Traditionally, survival estimates have been reported as survival from the time of diagnosis. A patient's probability of survival changes according to time elapsed since the diagnosis and this is known as conditional survival. The aim was to estimate 5-year net conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer in a well-defined French population at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Our study included 18,300 colorectal cancers diagnosed between 1976 and 2008 and registered in the population-based digestive cancer registry of Burgundy (France). We calculated conditional 5-year net survival, using the Pohar Perme estimator, for every additional year survived after diagnosis from 1 to 5 years. The initial 5-year net survival estimates varied between 89% for stage I and 9% for advanced stage cancer. The corresponding 5-year net survival for patients alive after 5 years was 95% and 75%. Stage II and III patients who survived 5 years had a similar probability of surviving 5 more years, respectively 87% and 84%. For survivors after the first year following diagnosis, five-year conditional net survival was similar regardless of age class and period of diagnosis. For colorectal cancer survivors, conditional net survival provides relevant and complementary prognostic information for patients and clinicians. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. The prognostic value of dividing epithelial ovarian cancer into type I and type II tumors based on pathologic characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prahm, Kira Philipsen; Karlsen, Mona Aarenstrup; Høgdall, Estrid

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prognostic significance of dividing epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) in type I and type II tumors based on pathologic variables. METHODS: We used the Danish Gynecologic Cancer Database to identify all patients diagnosed with EOC from 2005 to 2012. Information on histo......OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prognostic significance of dividing epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) in type I and type II tumors based on pathologic variables. METHODS: We used the Danish Gynecologic Cancer Database to identify all patients diagnosed with EOC from 2005 to 2012. Information...... for survival confirmed the increased overall survival for type I tumors after two years of follow-up (hazard ratio: 1.85, 95% confidence interval: 1.35-2.54, Pbased on pathologic variables was associated with an increased risk of death...

  2. Extent of early ischemic changes on computed tomography (CT) before thrombolysis: prognostic value of the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score in ECASS II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzialowski, Imanuel; Hill, Michael D; Coutts, Shelagh B; Demchuk, Andrew M; Kent, David M; Wunderlich, Olaf; von Kummer, Rüdiger

    2006-04-01

    The significance of early ischemic changes (EICs) on computed tomography (CT) to triage patients for thrombolysis has been controversial. The Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) semiquantitatively assesses EICs within the middle cerebral artery territory using a10-point grading system. We hypothesized that dichotomized ASPECTS predicts response to intravenous thrombolysis and incidence of secondary hemorrhage within 6 hours of stroke onset. Data from the European-Australian Acute Stroke Study (ECASS) II study were used in which 800 patients were randomized to recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) or placebo within 6 hours of symptom onset. We retrospectively assessed all baseline CT scans, dichotomized ASPECTS at 7, defined favorable outcome as modified Rankin Scale score 0 to 2 after 90 days, and secondary hemorrhage as parenchymal hematoma 1 (PH1) or PH2. We performed a multivariable logistic regression analysis and assessed for an interaction between rt-PA treatment and baseline ASPECTS score. We scored ASPECTS >7 in 557 and < or =7 in 231 patients. There was no treatment-by-ASPECTS interaction with dichotomized ASPECTS (P=0.3). This also applied for the 0- to 3-hour and 3- to 6-hour cohorts. However, a treatment-by-ASPECTS effect modification was seen in predicting PH (0.043 for the interaction term), indicating a much higher likelihood of thrombolytic-related parenchymal hemorrhage in those with ASPECTS < or =7. In ECASS II, the effect of rt-PA on functional outcome is not influenced by baseline ASPECTS. Patients with low ASPECTS have a substantially increased risk of thrombolytic-related PH.

  3. The high-density lipoprotein-adjusted SCORE model worsens SCORE-based risk classification in a contemporary population of 30 824 Europeans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Martin B; Afzal, Shoaib; Nordestgaard, Børge G

    2015-01-01

    .8 years of follow-up, 339 individuals died of CVD. In the SCORE target population (age 40-65; n = 30,824), fewer individuals were at baseline categorized as high risk (≥5% 10-year risk of fatal CVD) using SCORE-HDL compared with SCORE (10 vs. 17% in men, 1 vs. 3% in women). SCORE-HDL did not improve...... with SCORE, but deteriorated risk classification based on NRI. Future guidelines should consider lower decision thresholds and prioritize CVD morbidity and people above age 65....

  4. Prognostic Assessment in Patients with Indolent B-Cell Lymphomas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Arcaini

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Follicular lymphoma (FL is an indolent lymphoma with long median survival. Many studies have been performed to build up prognostic scores potentially useful to identify patients with poorer outcome. In 2004, an international consortium coordinated by the International Follicular Lymphoma Prognostic Factor project was established and a new prognostic study was launched (FLIPI2 using progression-free survival (PFS as main endpoint and integrating all the modern parameters prospectively collected. Low-grade non-Hodgkin lymphomas were once considered as a heterogenous group of lymphomas characterized by an indolent clinical course. Each entity is characterized by unique clinicobiologic features. Some studies have been focused on prognostic factors in single lymphoma subtypes, with the development of specific-entity scores based on retrospective series, for instance splenic marginal zone lymphoma (SMZL. A widely accepted prognostic tool for clinical usage for indolent non-follicular B-cell lymphomas is largely awaited. In this paper we summarized the current evidence regarding prognostic assessment of indolent follicular and non-follicular lymphomas.

  5. Prognostic factors in nodular lymphomas: a multivariate analysis based on the Princess Margaret Hospital experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gospodarowicz, M.K.; Bush, R.S.; Brown, T.C.; Chua, T.

    1984-01-01

    A total of 1,394 patients with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma were treated at the Princess Margaret Hospital between January 1, 1967 and December 31, 1978. Overall actuarial survival of 525 patients with nodular lymphomas was 40% at 12 years; survival of patients with localized (Stage I and III) nodular lymphomas treated with radical radiation therapy was 58%. Significant prognostic factors defined by multivariate analysis included patient's age, stage, histology, tumor bulk, and presence of B symptoms. By combining prognostic factors, distinct prognostic groups have been identified within the overall population. Patients with Stage I and II disease, small or medium bulk, less than 70 years of age achieved 92% 12 year actuarial survival and a 73% relapse-free rate in 12 years of follow-up. These patients represent groups highly curable with irradiation

  6. Comparison of Oncotype DX® Recurrence Score® with other risk assessment tools including the Nottingham Prognostic Index in the identification of patients with low-risk invasive breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotter, Maura Bríd; Dakin, Alex; Maguire, Aoife; Walshe, Janice M; Kennedy, M John; Dunne, Barbara; Riain, Ciarán Ó; Quinn, Cecily M

    2017-09-01

    Oncotype DX® is a gene expression assay that quantifies the risk of distant recurrence in patients with hormone receptor positive early breast cancer, publicly funded in Ireland since 2011. The aim of this study was to correlate Oncotype DX® risk groupings with traditional histopathological parameters and the results of other risk assessment tools including Recurrence Score-Pathology-Clinical (RSPC), Adjuvant Risk Index (Adj RI), Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) and the Adjuvant! Online 10-year score (AO). Patients were retrospectively identified from the histopathology databases of two Irish hospitals and patient and tumour characteristics collated. Associations between categorical variables were evaluated with Pearson's chi-square test. Correlations were calculated using Spearman's correlation coefficient and concordance using Lin's concordance correlation coefficient. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software, version 22.0.In our 300 patient cohort, Oncotype DX® classified 59.7% (n = 179) as low, 30% (n = 90) as intermediate, and 10.3% (n = 31) as high risk. Overall concordance between the RS and RSPC, Adj RI, NPI, and AO was 67.3% (n = 202), 56.3% (n = 169), 59% (n = 177), and 36.3% (n = 109), respectively. All risk assessment tools classified the majority of patients as low risk apart from the AO 10-year score, with RSPC classifying the highest number of patients as low risk. This study demonstrates that there is good correlation between the RS and scores obtained using alternative risk tools. Concordance with NPI is strong, particularly in the low-risk group. NPI, calculated from traditional clinicopathological characteristics, is a reliable alternative to Oncotype DX® in the identification of low-risk patients who may avoid adjuvant chemotherapy.

  7. Rhabdomyolysis and acute kidney injury: creatine kinase as a prognostic marker and validation of the McMahon Score in a 10-year cohort: A retrospective observational evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Joanna P; Taylor, Andrew; Sudhan, Nazneen; Menon, David K; Lavinio, Andrea

    2016-12-01

    High-volume fluid resuscitation and the administration of sodium bicarbonate and diuretics have a theoretical renoprotective role in patients at high risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) following rhabdomyolysis. Abnormally elevated creatine kinase has previously been used as a biological marker for the identification of patients at high risk of AKI following rhabdomyolysis. To assess the sensitivity and specificity of plasma creatine kinase (admission and peak values) for the prediction of AKI requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT) or of death in patients with confirmed rhabdomyolysis. To compare the diagnostic performance of creatine kinase with the McMahon score. Retrospective observational study. Data collection included McMahon and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores; daily creatine kinase; daily creatinine and electrolytes; ICU length of stay and mortality. Neurosciences and Trauma Critical Care Unit (Cambridge, UK). In total, 232 adults with confirmed rhabdomyolysis (creatine kinase > 1000 Ul) admitted to Neurosciences and Trauma Critical Care Unit between 2002 and 2012. AKI, RRT and mortality. Forty-five (19%) patients developed AKI and 29 (12.5%) patients required RRT. Mortality was significantly higher in patients who developed AKI (62 vs. 18%, P rhabdomyolysis. Although a PEAK creatine kinase of at least 5000 Ul has sensitivity acceptable for screening purposes, this is often a delayed finding. A McMahon score of at least 6 calculated on admission allows for a more sensitive, specific and timely identification of patients who may benefit from high-volume fluid resuscitation.

  8. Recurrence risk of low Apgar score among term singletons: a population-based cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ensing, Sabine; Schaaf, Jelle M.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Mol, Ben W. J.; Ravelli, Anita C. J.

    2014-01-01

    To examine the risk of recurrence of low Apgar score in a subsequent term singleton pregnancy. Population-based cohort study. The Netherlands. A total of 190,725 women with two subsequent singleton term live births between 1999 and 2007. We calculated the recurrence risk of low Apgar score after

  9. Reliability of a consensus-based ultrasound score for tenosynovitis in rheumatoid arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Naredo, Esperanza; D'Agostino, Maria Antonietta; Wakefield, Richard J

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To produce consensus-based scoring systems for ultrasound (US) tenosynovitis and to assess the intraobserver and interobserver reliability of these scoring systems in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: We undertook a Delphi process on US-defined tenosynovitis and US scoring system...... recruited. Ten rheumatologists expert in MSUS blindly, independently and consecutively scored for tenosynovitis in B-mode and PD mode three wrist extensor compartments, two finger flexor tendons and two ankle tendons of each patient in two rounds in a blinded fashion. Intraobserver reliability was assessed...... Doppler signal within the synovial sheath. The intraobserver reliability for tenosynovitis scoring on B-mode and PD mode was good (κ value 0.72 for B-mode; κ value 0.78 for PD mode). Interobserver reliability assessment showed good κ values for PD tenosynovitis scoring (first round, 0.64; second round, 0...

  10. Naive scoring of human sleep based on a hidden Markov model of the electroencephalogram.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaghouby, Farid; Modur, Pradeep; Sunderam, Sridhar

    2014-01-01

    Clinical sleep scoring involves tedious visual review of overnight polysomnograms by a human expert. Many attempts have been made to automate the process by training computer algorithms such as support vector machines and hidden Markov models (HMMs) to replicate human scoring. Such supervised classifiers are typically trained on scored data and then validated on scored out-of-sample data. Here we describe a methodology based on HMMs for scoring an overnight sleep recording without the benefit of a trained initial model. The number of states in the data is not known a priori and is optimized using a Bayes information criterion. When tested on a 22-subject database, this unsupervised classifier agreed well with human scores (mean of Cohen's kappa > 0.7). The HMM also outperformed other unsupervised classifiers (Gaussian mixture models, k-means, and linkage trees), that are capable of naive classification but do not model dynamics, by a significant margin (p < 0.05).

  11. Cancer of the ovary, fallopian tube, and peritoneum: a population-based comparison of the prognostic factors and outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rottmann, Miriam; Burges, A; Mahner, S; Anthuber, C; Beck, T; Grab, D; Schnelzer, A; Kiechle, M; Mayr, D; Pölcher, M; Schubert-Fritschle, G; Engel, J

    2017-09-01

    The objective was to compare the prognostic factors and outcomes among primary ovarian cancer (OC), fallopian tube cancer (FC), and peritoneal cancer (PC) patients in a population-based setting. We analysed 5399 OC, 327 FC, and 416 PC patients diagnosed between 1998 and 2014 in the catchment area of the Munich Cancer Registry (meanwhile 4.8 million inhabitants). Tumour site differences were examined by comparing prognostic factors, treatments, the time to progression, and survival. The effect of the tumour site was additionally analysed by a Cox regression model. The median age at diagnosis, histology, and FIGO stage significantly differed among the tumour sites (p < 0.001); PC patients were older, more often diagnosed with a serous subtype, and in FIGO stage III or IV. The time to progression and survival significantly differed among the tumour sites. When stratified by FIGO stage, the differences in time to progression disappeared, and the differences in survival considerably weakened. The differences in the multivariate survival analysis showed an almost identical outcome in PC patients (HR 1.07 [0.91-1.25]) and an improved survival of FC patients (HR 0.63 [0.49-0.81]) compared to that of OC patients. The comparison of OC, FC, and PC patients in this large-scale population-based study showed differences in the prognostic factors. These differences primarily account for the inferior outcome of PC patients, and for the improved survival of FC compared to OC patients.

  12. Avaliação prognóstica da doença coronária estável através de um novo escore Evaluación pronóstica de la enfermedad coronaria estable a través de un nuevo score New prognostic score for stable coronary disease evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda Coutinho Storti

    2011-05-01

    simplificado. MÉTODOS: Un nuevo score se aplicó en 372 coronariópatas multiarteriales y función ventricular preservada, el 71,8% varones, edad media de 59,5 (± 9,07 años, randomizados para angioplastia, revascularización quirúrgica y tratamiento clínico, seguidos de cinco años. Muerte cardiovascular fue el resultado primario. El infarto de miocardio no fatal, la muerte y la re-intervención formaron el desenlace combinado secundario. El score se basó en una ecuación previamente validada resultante de la suma de 1 punto a: sexo masculino, antecedentes de infarto, angina, diabetes, uso de insulina y todavía un punto por cada década de vida después de 40 años. Prueba positiva añadida 1 punto. RESULTADOS: Hubo 36 muertes (10 en el grupo de angioplastia, 15 en el grupo de revascularización y 11 en el grupo clínico, p = 0,61. Se observó 93 eventos combinados: 37 en el grupo angioplastia, 23 en el grupo revascularización y 33 en el grupo clínico (p = 0,058. Presentaron score clínico > 5 puntos y 216 > 6 puntos 247 pacientes. El valor de corte > 5 o > 6 puntos identificó un mayor riesgo, con p = 0,015 y p = 0,012, respectivamente. La curva de sobrevida mostró una incidencia de muerte después de la aleatorización que aquellos con score > 6 puntos (p = 0,07, y una incidencia de eventos combinados diferentes entre los pacientes con score 6 puntos (p = 0,02. CONCLUSIÓN: El nuevo score demostró consistencia en la evaluación pronóstica del coronariópata estable multiarterial. (Arq Bras Cardiol 2011;96(5:411-419BACKGROUND: The need to improve the exercise testing accuracy, pushed the development of scores, whose applicability was already broadly recognized. OBJECTIVE: Prognostic evaluation of stable coronary disease through a new simplified score. METHODS: A new score was applied in 372 multivessel coronary patients with preserved ventricular function, 71.8% male, age: 59.5 (± 9.07 years old, randomized to medical treatment, surgery (CABG or angioplasty (PTCA

  13. Prognostic significance of immunohistochemistry-based markers and algorithms in immunochemotherapy-treated diffuse large B cell lymphoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culpin, Rachel E; Sieniawski, Michal; Angus, Brian; Menon, Geetha K; Proctor, Stephen J; Milne, Paul; McCabe, Kate; Mainou-Fowler, Tryfonia

    2013-12-01

    To reassess the prognostic validity of immunohistochemical markers and algorithms identified in the CHOP era in immunochemotherapy-treated diffuse large B cell lymphoma patients. The prognostic significance of immunohistochemical markers (CD10, Bcl-6, Bcl-2, MUM1, Ki-67, CD5, GCET1, FoxP1, LMO2) and algorithms (Hans, Hans*, Muris, Choi, Choi*, Nyman, Visco-Young, Tally) was assessed using clinical diagnostic blocks taken from an unselected, population-based cohort of 190 patients treated with R-CHOP. Dichotomizing expression, low CD10 (<10%), low LMO2 (<70%) or high Bcl-2 (≥80%) predicted shorter overall survival (OS; P = 0.033, P = 0.010 and P = 0.008, respectively). High Bcl-2 (≥80%), low Bcl-6 (<60%), low GCET1 (<20%) or low LMO2 (<70%) predicted shorter progression-free survival (PFS; P = 0.001, P = 0.048, P = 0.045 and P = 0.002, respectively). The Hans, Hans* and Muris classifiers predicted OS (P = 0.022, P = 0.037 and P = 0.011) and PFS (P = 0.021, P = 0.020 and P = 0.004). The Choi, Choi* and Tally were associated with PFS (P = 0.049, P = 0.009 and P = 0.023). In multivariate analysis, the International Prognostic Index (IPI) was the only independent predictor of outcome (OS; HR: 2.60, P < 0.001 and PFS; HR: 2.91, P < 0.001). Results highlight the controversy surrounding immunohistochemistry-based algorithms in the R-CHOP era. The need for more robust markers, applicable to the clinic, for incorporation into improved prognostic systems is emphasized. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Feature and score fusion based multiple classifier selection for iris recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Md Rabiul

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this work is to propose a new feature and score fusion based iris recognition approach where voting method on Multiple Classifier Selection technique has been applied. Four Discrete Hidden Markov Model classifiers output, that is, left iris based unimodal system, right iris based unimodal system, left-right iris feature fusion based multimodal system, and left-right iris likelihood ratio score fusion based multimodal system, is combined using voting method to achieve the final recognition result. CASIA-IrisV4 database has been used to measure the performance of the proposed system with various dimensions. Experimental results show the versatility of the proposed system of four different classifiers with various dimensions. Finally, recognition accuracy of the proposed system has been compared with existing N hamming distance score fusion approach proposed by Ma et al., log-likelihood ratio score fusion approach proposed by Schmid et al., and single level feature fusion approach proposed by Hollingsworth et al.

  15. Prognostic Factors in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moura, Mirian Conceicao; Novaes, Maria Rita Carvalho Garbi; Eduardo, Emanoel Junio; Zago, Yuri S S P; Freitas, Ricardo Del Negro Barroso; Casulari, Luiz Augusto

    2015-01-01

    To determine the prognostic factors associated with survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis at diagnosis. This retrospective population-based study evaluated 218 patients treated with riluzole between 2005 and 2014 and described their clinical and demographic profiles after the analysis of clinical data and records from the mortality information system in the Federal District, Brazil. Cox multivariate regression analysis was conducted for the parameters found. The study sample consisted of 132 men and 86 women with a mean age at disease onset of 57.2±12.3 years; 77.6% of them were Caucasian. The mean periods between disease onset and diagnosis were 22.7 months among men and 23.5 months among women, and the mean survival periods were 45.7±47.0 months among men and 39.3±29.8 months among women. In addition, 80.3% patients presented non-bulbar-onset amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, and 19.7% presented bulbar-onset. Cox regression analysis indicated worse prognosis for body mass index (BMI) 75 years (RR: 12.47, 95% CI: 3.51-44.26), and bulbar-onset (RR: 4.56, 95% CI: 2.06-10.12). Electromyography did not confirm the diagnosis in 55.6% of the suspected cases and in 27.9% of the bulbar-onset cases. The factors associated with lower survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis were age >75 years, BMI <25 kg/m2, and bulbar-onset.

  16. Multistream sensor fusion-based prognostics model for systems with single failure modes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Xiaolei; Paynabar, Kamran; Gebraeel, Nagi

    2017-01-01

    Advances in sensor technology have facilitated the capability of monitoring the degradation of complex engineering systems through the analysis of multistream degradation signals. However, the varying levels of correlation with physical degradation process for different sensors, high-dimensionality of the degradation signals and cross-correlation among different signal streams pose significant challenges in monitoring and prognostics of such systems. To address the foregoing challenges, we develop a three-step multi-sensor prognostic methodology that utilizes multistream signals to predict residual useful lifetimes of partially degraded systems. We first identify the informative sensors via the penalized (log)-location-scale regression. Then, we fuse the degradation signals of the informative sensors using multivariate functional principal component analysis, which is capable of modeling the cross-correlation of signal streams. Finally, the third step focuses on utilizing the fused signal features for prognostics via adaptive penalized (log)-location-scale regression. We validate our multi-sensor prognostic methodology using simulation study as well as a case study of aircraft turbofan engines available from NASA repository.

  17. Histology-Based Expression Profiling Yields Novel Prognostic Markers in Human Glioblastoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Shumin; Nutt, Catherine L.; Betensky, Rebecca A.; Stemmer-Rachamimov, Anat O.; Denko, Nicholas C.; Ligon, Keith L.; Rowitch, David H.; Louis, David N.

    2006-01-01

    Although the prognosis for patients with glioblastoma is poor, survival is variable, with some patients surviving longer than others. For this reason, there has been longstanding interest in the identi-fication of prognostic markers for glioblastoma. We hypothesized that specific histologic features known to correlate with malignancy most likely express molecules that are directly related to the aggressive behavior of these tumors. We further hypothesized that such molecules could be used as biomarkers to predict behavior in a manner that might add prognostic power to sole histologic observation of the feature. We reasoned that perinecrotic tumor cell palisading, which denotes the most aggressive forms of malignant gliomas, would be a striking histologic feature on which to test this hypothesis. We therefore used laser capture microdissection and oligonucleotide arrays to detect molecules differentially expressed in perinecrotic palisades. A set of RNAs (including POFUT2, PTDSR, PLOD2, ATF5, and HK2) that were differentially expressed in 3 initially studied, micro-dissected glioblastomas also provided prognostic information in an independent set of 28 glioblastomas that did not all have perinecrotic palisades. On validation in a second, larger independent series, this approach could be applied to other human glioma types to derive tissue biomarkers that could offer ancillary prognostic and predictive information alongside standard histopathologic examination. PMID:16254489

  18. Calving body condition score combined with milk test data and rectal tempreture improved the prognostic value of non-invasive markers for infectious diseases in Holestein cows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mansouryar, M.; Mirzaei-Alamouti, H.; Banadaky, M. Dehghan

    2018-01-01

    Early lactating dairy cows, are predisposed for calving-related diseases. Early prediction of “at risk” animals increases the likelihood of a successful recovery. In this regard, test-days milk data and body condition score (BCS) at calving have been evaluated as potential indicators of cows at......), BCS at calving and at the first two milk test-days and RT measured daily from day 1 (parturition) to 14 postpartum. Cows were furthermore monitored for subclinical mastitis (SCM), metritis and endometritis in the postpartum period, and diseases diagnosed using standardized definitions. The predicting...... value of variables were evaluated by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. None of the determined variables provided accuracy individually in prediction of post-partum diseases. Only the mean value of rectal temperature at week 2 (RT2) showed an area under the curve (AUC) higher than 0...

  19. Work ability as prognostic risk marker of disability pension: single-item work ability score versus multi-item work ability index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelen, Corné A M; van Rhenen, Willem; Groothoff, Johan W; van der Klink, Jac J L; Twisk, Jos W R; Heymans, Martijn W

    2014-07-01

    Work ability predicts future disability pension (DP). A single-item work ability score (WAS) is emerging as a measure for work ability. This study compared single-item WAS with the multi-item work ability index (WAI) in its ability to identify workers at risk of DP. This prospective cohort study comprised 11 537 male construction workers, who completed the WAI at baseline and reported DP after a mean 2.3 years of follow-up. WAS and WAI were calibrated for DP risk predictions with the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test and their ability to discriminate between high- and low-risk construction workers was investigated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). At follow-up, 336 (3%) construction workers reported DP. Both WAS [odds ratio (OR) 0.72, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.66-0.78] and WAI (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.52-0.63) scores were associated with DP at follow-up. The WAS showed miscalibration (H-L model χ (�)=10.60; df=3; P=0.01) and poorly discriminated between high- and low-risk construction workers (AUC 0.67, 95% CI 0.64-0.70). In contrast, calibration (H-L model χ �=8.20; df=8; P=0.41) and discrimination (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.75-0.80) were both adequate for the WAI. Although associated with the risk of future DP, the single-item WAS poorly identified male construction workers at risk of DP. We recommend using the multi-item WAI to screen for risk of DP in occupational health practice.

  20. Machine Learning Consensus Scoring Improves Performance Across Targets in Structure-Based Virtual Screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ericksen, Spencer S; Wu, Haozhen; Zhang, Huikun; Michael, Lauren A; Newton, Michael A; Hoffmann, F Michael; Wildman, Scott A

    2017-07-24

    In structure-based virtual screening, compound ranking through a consensus of scores from a variety of docking programs or scoring functions, rather than ranking by scores from a single program, provides better predictive performance and reduces target performance variability. Here we compare traditional consensus scoring methods with a novel, unsupervised gradient boosting approach. We also observed increased score variation among active ligands and developed a statistical mixture model consensus score based on combining score means and variances. To evaluate performance, we used the common performance metrics ROCAUC and EF1 on 21 benchmark targets from DUD-E. Traditional consensus methods, such as taking the mean of quantile normalized docking scores, outperformed individual docking methods and are more robust to target variation. The mixture model and gradient boosting provided further improvements over the traditional consensus methods. These methods are readily applicable to new targets in academic research and overcome the potentially poor performance of using a single docking method on a new target.

  1. An Enhanced Rule-Based Web Scanner Based on Similarity Score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LEE, M.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an enhanced rule-based web scanner in order to get better accuracy in detecting web vulnerabilities than the existing tools, which have relatively high false alarm rate when the web pages are installed in unconventional directory paths. Using the proposed matching method based on similarity score, the proposed scheme can determine whether two pages have the same vulnerabilities or not. With this method, the proposed scheme is able to figure out the target web pages are vulnerable by comparing them to the web pages that are known to have vulnerabilities. We show the proposed scanner reduces 12% false alarm rate compared to the existing well-known scanner through the performance evaluation via various experiments. The proposed scheme is especially helpful in detecting vulnerabilities of the web applications which come from well-known open-source web applications after small customization, which happens frequently in many small-sized companies.

  2. Slit Lamp-Based Ocular Scoring Systems in Toxicology and Drug Development: A Literature Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Joshua Seth; Miller, Paul E; Bentley, Ellison; Thomasy, Sara M; Murphy, Christopher J

    2017-12-01

    To present a survey of the features of published slit lamp-based scoring systems and their applicability in the context of modern ocular toxicology and drug development. References describing original or modified slit lamp-based scoring systems for human or veterinary clinical patients or in investigative or toxicologic research were collected following a comprehensive literature review using textbooks and online publication searches. Each system's indications and features were compiled to facilitate comparison. Literature review identified 138 original or modified scoring systems. Most (48%) were published for evaluation of the ocular surface, 34% for the general anterior segment, and 18% for the lens. Most systems were described for assessment of human patients (50%) and small albino laboratory species such as rabbits (19%), rats (12%), and mice (8%). Systems described for pigmented laboratory species and for larger species such as dogs, cats, pigs, and nonhuman primates (NHPs) were comparatively underrepresented. No systems described a lens scoring scheme specific to the dog, cat, pig, or NHP. Scoring schemes for aqueous and vitreous cells were infrequently described for laboratory species. Many slit lamp-based scoring systems have been published, but the features of each differ and complicate translation of findings between different species. Use and interpretation of any scoring system in toxicology and drug development must be done with awareness of the limitations of the system being used.

  3. Standardized computer-based organized reporting of EEG SCORE - Second version

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniczky, Sándor; Aurlien, Harald; Brøgger, Jan C

    2017-01-01

    Standardized terminology for computer-based assessment and reporting of EEG has been previously developed in Europe. The International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology established a taskforce in 2013 to develop this further, and to reach international consensus. This work resulted in the se......Standardized terminology for computer-based assessment and reporting of EEG has been previously developed in Europe. The International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology established a taskforce in 2013 to develop this further, and to reach international consensus. This work resulted...... in the second, revised version of SCORE (Standardized Computer-based Organized Reporting of EEG), which is presented in this paper. The revised terminology was implemented in a software package (SCORE EEG), which was tested in clinical practice on 12,160 EEG recordings. Standardized terms implemented in SCORE....... In the end, the diagnostic significance is scored, using a standardized list of terms. SCORE has specific modules for scoring seizures (including seizure semiology and ictal EEG patterns), neonatal recordings (including features specific for this age group), and for Critical Care EEG Terminology. SCORE...

  4. A Model-Based Prognostics Methodology For Electrolytic Capacitors Based On Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A remaining useful life prediction methodology for electrolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical...

  5. A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A remaining useful life prediction methodology for elec- trolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical...

  6. An entropy-based improved k-top scoring pairs (TSP) method for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An entropy-based improved k-top scoring pairs (TSP) (Ik-TSP) method was presented in this study for the classification and prediction of human cancers based on gene-expression data. We compared Ik-TSP classifiers with 5 different machine learning methods and the k-TSP method based on 3 different feature selection ...

  7. Liposarcoma: exploration of clinical prognostic factors for risk based stratification of therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hyo Song; Park, Joon Oh; Kim, Sung Joo; Lee, Jeeyun; Yi, Seong Yoon; Jun, Hyun Jung; Choi, Yoon-La; Ahn, Geung Hwan; Seo, Sung Wook; Lim, Do Hoon; Ahn, Yong Chan

    2009-01-01

    Prognosis and optimal treatment strategies of liposarcoma have not been fully defined. The purpose of this study is to define the distinctive clinical features of liposarcomas by assessing prognostic factors. Between January 1995 and May 2008, 94 liposarcoma patients who underwent surgical resection with curative intent were reviewed. Fifty patients (53.2%) presented with well differentiated, 22 (23.4%) myxoid, 15 (16.0%) dedifferentiated, 5 (5.3%) round cell, and 2 (2.1%) pleomorphic histology. With the median 14 cm sized of tumor burden, about half of the cases were located in the retroperitoneum (46.8%). Seventy two (76.6%) patients remained alive with 78.1%, and 67.5% of the 5- and 10-year overall survival (OS) rates, respectively. Low grade liposarcoma (well differentiated and myxoid) had a significantly prolonged OS and disease free survival (DFS) with adjuvant radiotherapy when compared with those without adjuvant radiotherapy (5-year OS, 100% vs 66.3%, P = 0.03; 1-year DFS, 92.9% vs 50.0%, respectively, P = 0.04). Independent prognostic factors for OS were histologic variant (P = 0.001; HR, 5.1; 95% CI, 2.0 – 12.9), and margin status (P = 0.005; HR, 4.1; 95% CI, 1.6–10.5). We identified three different risk groups: group 1 (n = 66), no adverse factors; group 2, one or two adverse factors (n = 28). The 5-year OS rate for group 1, and 2 were 91.9%, 45.5%, respectively. The histologic subtype, and margin status were independently associated with OS, and adjuvant radiotherapy seems to confer survival benefit in low grade tumors. Our prognostic model for primary liposarcoma demonstrated distinct three groups of patients with good prognostic discrimination

  8. Prognostic utility of the Seattle Heart Failure Score and amino terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide in varying stages of systolic heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adlbrecht, Christopher; Hülsmann, Martin; Neuhold, Stephanie; Strunk, Guido; Pacher, Richard

    2013-05-01

    Cardiac transplantation represents the best procedure to improve long-term clinical outcome in advanced chronic heart failure (CHF), if pre-selection criteria are sufficient to outweigh the risk of the failing heart over the risk of transplantation. Although the cornerstone of success, risk assessment in heart transplant candidates is still under-investigated. Amino terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is regarded as the best predictor of outcome in CHF, and the Seattle Heart Failure Score (SHFS), including clinical markers, is widely used if NT-proBNP is unavailable. The present study assessed the predictive value for all-cause death of the SHFS in CHF patients and compared it with NT-proBNP in a multivariate model including established baseline parameters known to predict survival. A total of 429 patients receiving stable HF-specific pharmacotherapy were included and monitored for 53.4 ± 20.6 months. Of these, 133 patients (31%) died during follow-up. Several established predictors of death on univariate analysis proved significant for the total study cohort. Systolic pulmonary arterial pressure (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.05); p < 0.001, Wald 15.1), logNT-proBNP (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.22-1.86; p < 0.001, Wald 14.9), and the SHFS (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.99-1.00; p < 0.001, Wald 12.6) remained within the stepwise multivariate Cox regression model as independent predictors of all-cause death. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0.802 for logNT-proBNP and 0.762 for the SHFS. NT-proBNP is a more potent marker to identify patients at the highest risk. If the NT-proBNP measurement is unavailable, the SHFS may serve as an adequate clinical surrogate to predict all-cause death. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Practical prognostic index for patients with metastatic recurrent breast cancer: retrospective analysis of 2,322 patients from the GEICAM Spanish El Alamo Register.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puente, Javier; López-Tarruella, Sara; Ruiz, Amparo; Lluch, Ana; Pastor, Miguel; Alba, Emilio; de la Haba, Juan; Ramos, Manuel; Cirera, Luis; Antón, Antonio; Llombart, Antoni; Plazaola, Arrate; Fernández-Aramburo, Antonio; Sastre, Javier; Díaz-Rubio, Eduardo; Martin, Miguel

    2010-07-01

    Women with recurrent metastatic breast cancer from a Spanish hospital registry (El Alamo, GEICAM) were analyzed in order to identify the most helpful prognostic factors to predict survival and to ultimately construct a practical prognostic index. The inclusion criteria covered women patients diagnosed with operable invasive breast cancer who had metastatic recurrence between 1990 and 1997 in GEICAM hospitals. Patients with stage IV breast cancer at initial diagnosis or with isolated loco-regional recurrence were excluded from this analysis. Data from 2,322 patients with recurrent breast cancer after primary treatment (surgery, radiation and systemic adjuvant treatment) were used to construct the prognostic index. The prognostic index score for each individual patient was calculated by totalling up the scores of each independent variable. The maximum score obtainable was 26.1. Nine-hundred and sixty-two patients who had complete data for all the variables were used in the computation of the prognostic index score. We were able to stratify them into three prognostic groups based on the prognostic index score: 322 patients in the good risk group (score or =15.61). The median survivals for these groups were 3.69, 2.27 and 1.02 years, respectively (P < 0.0001). In conclusion, risk scores are extraordinarily valuable tools, highly recommendable in the clinical practice.

  10. A Hybrid PCA-CART-MARS-Based Prognostic Approach of the Remaining Useful Life for Aircraft Engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Sánchez Lasheras

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Prognostics is an engineering discipline that predicts the future health of a system. In this research work, a data-driven approach for prognostics is proposed. Indeed, the present paper describes a data-driven hybrid model for the successful prediction of the remaining useful life of aircraft engines. The approach combines the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS technique with the principal component analysis (PCA, dendrograms and classification and regression trees (CARTs. Elements extracted from sensor signals are used to train this hybrid model, representing different levels of health for aircraft engines. In this way, this hybrid algorithm is used to predict the trends of these elements. Based on this fitting, one can determine the future health state of a system and estimate its remaining useful life (RUL with accuracy. To evaluate the proposed approach, a test was carried out using aircraft engine signals collected from physical sensors (temperature, pressure, speed, fuel flow, etc.. Simulation results show that the PCA-CART-MARS-based approach can forecast faults long before they occur and can predict the RUL. The proposed hybrid model presents as its main advantage the fact that it does not require information about the previous operation states of the input variables of the engine. The performance of this model was compared with those obtained by other benchmark models (multivariate linear regression and artificial neural networks also applied in recent years for the modeling of remaining useful life. Therefore, the PCA-CART-MARS-based approach is very promising in the field of prognostics of the RUL for aircraft engines.

  11. Prognostic factors and risk stratification in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer receiving docetaxel-based chemotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Shimpei; Kohjimoto, Yasuo; Iguchi, Takashi; Koike, Hiroyuki; Kusumoto, Hiroki; Iba, Akinori; Kikkawa, Kazuro; Kodama, Yoshiki; Matsumura, Nagahide; Hara, Isao

    2016-03-22

    While novel drugs have been developed, docetaxel remains one of the standard initial systemic therapies for castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) patients. Despite the excellent anti-tumor effect of docetaxel, its severe adverse effects sometimes distress patients. Therefore, it would be very helpful to predict the efficacy of docetaxel before treatment. The aims of this study were to evaluate the potential value of patient characteristics in predicting overall survival (OS) and to develop a risk classification for CRPC patients treated with docetaxel-based chemotherapy. This study included 79 patients with CRPC treated with docetaxel. The variables, including patient characteristics at diagnosis and at the start of chemotherapy, were retrospectively collected. Prognostic factors predicting OS were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard model. Risk stratification for overall survival was determined based on the results of multivariate analysis. PSA response ≥50 % was observed in 55 (69.6 %) of all patients, and the median OS was 22.5 months. The multivariate analysis showed that age, serum PSA level at the start of chemotherapy, and Hb were independent prognostic factors for OS. In addition, ECOG performance status (PS) and the CRP-to-albumin ratio were not significant but were considered possible predictors for OS. Risk stratification according to the number of these risk factors could effectively stratify CRPC patients treated with docetaxel in terms of OS. Age, serum PSA level at the start of chemotherapy, and Hb were identified as independent prognostic factors of OS. ECOG PS and the CRP-to-albumin ratio were not significant, but were considered possible predictors for OS in Japanese CRPC patients treated with docetaxel. Risk stratification based on these factors could be helpful for estimating overall survival.

  12. Accounting for Intraligand Interactions in Flexible Ligand Docking with a PMF-Based Scoring Function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizunov, A Y; Gonchar, A L; Zaitseva, N I; Zosimov, V V

    2015-10-26

    We analyzed the frequency with which intraligand contacts occurred in a set of 1300 protein-ligand complexes [ Plewczynski et al. J. Comput. Chem. 2011 , 32 , 742 - 755 .]. Our analysis showed that flexible ligands often form intraligand hydrophobic contacts, while intraligand hydrogen bonds are rare. The test set was also thoroughly investigated and classified. We suggest a universal method for enhancement of a scoring function based on a potential of mean force (PMF-based score) by adding a term accounting for intraligand interactions. The method was implemented via in-house developed program, utilizing an Algo_score scoring function [ Ramensky et al. Proteins: Struct., Funct., Genet. 2007 , 69 , 349 - 357 .] based on the Tarasov-Muryshev PMF [ Muryshev et al. J. Comput.-Aided Mol. Des. 2003 , 17 , 597 - 605 .]. The enhancement of the scoring function was shown to significantly improve the docking and scoring quality for flexible ligands in the test set of 1300 protein-ligand complexes [ Plewczynski et al. J. Comput. Chem. 2011 , 32 , 742 - 755 .]. We then investigated the correlation of the docking results with two parameters of intraligand interactions estimation. These parameters are the weight of intraligand interactions and the minimum number of bonds between the ligand atoms required to take their interaction into account.

  13. Context-Dependent Prognostics and Health Assessment: A Condition-Based Maintenance Approach That Supports Mission Compliance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allgood, G.O.; Kercel, S.W.

    1999-04-19

    In today's manufacturing environment, plants, systems, and equipment are being asked to perform at levels not thought possible a decade ago. The intent is to improve process operations and equipment reliability, availability, and maintainability without costly upgrades. Of course these gains must be achieved without impacting operational performance. Downsizing is also taking its toll on operations. Loss of personnel, particularly those who represent the corporate history, is depleting US industries of their valuable experiential base which has been relied on so heavily in the past. These realizations are causing companies to rethink their condition-based maintenance policies by moving away from reacting to equipment problems to taking a proactive approach by anticipating needs based on market and customer requirements. This paper describes a different approach to condition-based maintenance-context-dependent prognostics and health assessment. This diagnostic capability is developed around a context-dependent model that provides a capability to anticipate impending failures and determine machine performance over a protracted period of time. This prognostic capability links operational requirements to an economic performance model. In this context, a system may provide 100% operability with less than 100% functionality. This paradigm is used to facilitate optimal logistic supply and support.

  14. Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

    2016-09-30

    Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Liver stiffness measurement-based scoring system for significant inflammation related to chronic hepatitis B.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei-Zhu Hong

    Full Text Available Liver biopsy is indispensable because liver stiffness measurement alone cannot provide information on intrahepatic inflammation. However, the presence of fibrosis highly correlates with inflammation. We constructed a noninvasive model to determine significant inflammation in chronic hepatitis B patients by using liver stiffness measurement and serum markers.The training set included chronic hepatitis B patients (n = 327, and the validation set included 106 patients; liver biopsies were performed, liver histology was scored, and serum markers were investigated. All patients underwent liver stiffness measurement.An inflammation activity scoring system for significant inflammation was constructed. In the training set, the area under the curve, sensitivity, and specificity of the fibrosis-based activity score were 0.964, 91.9%, and 90.8% in the HBeAg(+ patients and 0.978, 85.0%, and 94.0% in the HBeAg(- patients, respectively. In the validation set, the area under the curve, sensitivity, and specificity of the fibrosis-based activity score were 0.971, 90.5%, and 92.5% in the HBeAg(+ patients and 0.977, 95.2%, and 95.8% in the HBeAg(- patients. The liver stiffness measurement-based activity score was comparable to that of the fibrosis-based activity score in both HBeAg(+ and HBeAg(- patients for recognizing significant inflammation (G ≥3.Significant inflammation can be accurately predicted by this novel method. The liver stiffness measurement-based scoring system can be used without the aid of computers and provides a noninvasive alternative for the prediction of chronic hepatitis B-related significant inflammation.

  16. Prognostic factors in breast phyllodes tumors: a nomogram based on a retrospective cohort study of 404 patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Zhi-Rui; Wang, Chen-Chen; Sun, Xiang-Jie; Yang, Zhao-Zhi; Chen, Xing-Xing; Shao, Zhi-Ming; Yu, Xiao-Li; Guo, Xiao-Mao

    2018-04-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the independent prognostic factors related to postoperative recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients with breast phyllodes tumors (PTBs). A retrospective analysis was conducted in Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center. According to histological type, patients with benign PTBs were classified as a low-risk group, while borderline and malignant PTBs were classified as a high-risk group. The Cox regression model was adopted to identify factors affecting postoperative RFS in the two groups, and a nomogram was generated to predict recurrence-free survival at 1, 3, and 5 years. Among the 404 patients, 168 (41.6%) patients had benign PTB, 184 (45.5%) had borderline PTB, and 52 (12.9%) had malignant PTB. Fifty-five patients experienced postoperative local recurrence, including six benign cases, 26 borderline cases, and 22 malignant cases; the three histological types of PTB had local recurrence rates of 3.6%, 14.1%, and 42.3%, respectively. Stromal cell atypia was an independent prognostic factor for RFS in the low-risk group, while the surgical approach and tumor border were independent prognostic factors for RFS in the high-risk group, and patients receiving simple excision with an infiltrative tumor border had a higher recurrence rate. A nomogram developed based on clinicopathologic features and surgical approaches could predict recurrence-free survival at 1, 3, and 5 years. For high-risk patients, this predictive nomogram based on tumor border, tumor residue, mitotic activity, degree of stromal cell hyperplasia, and atypia can be applied for patient counseling and clinical management. The efficacy of adjuvant radiotherapy remains uncertain. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. A Discussion on Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-based Prognostics Algorithms based on Kalman Filter Estimation Applied to Prognostics of Electronics Components

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This article presented a discussion on uncertainty representation and management for model-based prog- nostics methodologies based on the Bayesian tracking framework...

  18. Prognostic value of normal stress-only myocardial perfusion imaging: a comparison between conventional and CZT-based SPECT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yokota, Shu; Ottervanger, Jan Paul; Timmer, Jorik R. [Isala Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Zwolle (Netherlands); Mouden, Mohamed; Engbers, Elsemiek [Isala Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Zwolle (Netherlands); Isala Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Zwolle (Netherlands); Knollema, Siert; Jager, Pieter L. [Isala Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Zwolle (Netherlands)

    2016-02-15

    Single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion imaging has proven to have prognostic importance in patients with suspected stable coronary artery disease (CAD). The recently introduced ultrafast cadmium zinc telluride (CZT)-based gamma cameras have been associated with less equivocal findings and more normal interpretations, allowing stress-only imaging to be performed more often. However, it is yet unclear whether normal stress-only CZT SPECT has comparable prognostic value as normally interpreted stress-only conventional SPECT. The study population consisted of 1,650 consecutive patients without known CAD with normal stress-only myocardial perfusion results with either conventional (n = 362) or CZT SPECT (n = 1,288). The incidence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE, all-cause death, non-fatal myocardial infarction and/or coronary revascularization) was compared between the conventional SPECT and CZT SPECT groups. Multivariable analyses using the Cox model were used to adjust for differences in baseline variables. Patients scanned with CZT were less often male (33 vs 39 %), had less often hypercholesterolaemia (41 vs 50 %) and had more often a family history of CAD (57 vs 49 %). At a median follow-up time of 37 months (interquartile range 28-45 months) MACE occurred in 68 patients. The incidence of MACE was 1.5 %/year in the CZT group, compared to 2.0 %/year in the conventional group (p = 0.08). After multivariate analyses, there was a trend to a lower incidence of MACE in the CZT SPECT group (hazard ratio 0.61, 95 % confidence interval 0.35-1.04, p = 0.07). The prognostic value of normal stress-only CZT SPECT is at least comparable and may be even better than that of normal conventional stress SPECT. (orig.)

  19. Computerized three-class classification of MRI-based prognostic markers for breast cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhooshan, Neha; Giger, Maryellen; Edwards, Darrin; Yuan Yading; Jansen, Sanaz; Li Hui; Lan Li; Newstead, Gillian [Department of Radiology, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Sattar, Husain, E-mail: bhooshan@uchicago.edu [Department of Pathology, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States)

    2011-09-21

    The purpose of this study is to investigate whether computerized analysis using three-class Bayesian artificial neural network (BANN) feature selection and classification can characterize tumor grades (grade 1, grade 2 and grade 3) of breast lesions for prognostic classification on DCE-MRI. A database of 26 IDC grade 1 lesions, 86 IDC grade 2 lesions and 58 IDC grade 3 lesions was collected. The computer automatically segmented the lesions, and kinetic and morphological lesion features were automatically extracted. The discrimination tasks-grade 1 versus grade 3, grade 2 versus grade 3, and grade 1 versus grade 2 lesions-were investigated. Step-wise feature selection was conducted by three-class BANNs. Classification was performed with three-class BANNs using leave-one-lesion-out cross-validation to yield computer-estimated probabilities of being grade 3 lesion, grade 2 lesion and grade 1 lesion. Two-class ROC analysis was used to evaluate the performances. We achieved AUC values of 0.80 {+-} 0.05, 0.78 {+-} 0.05 and 0.62 {+-} 0.05 for grade 1 versus grade 3, grade 1 versus grade 2, and grade 2 versus grade 3, respectively. This study shows the potential for (1) applying three-class BANN feature selection and classification to CADx and (2) expanding the role of DCE-MRI CADx from diagnostic to prognostic classification in distinguishing tumor grades.

  20. MRI-based radiologic scoring system for extent of brain injury in children with hemiplegia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiran, S I; Weinstein, M; Sirota-Cohen, C; Myers, V; Ben Bashat, D; Fattal-Valevski, A; Green, D; Schertz, M

    2014-12-01

    Brain MR imaging is recommended in children with cerebral palsy. Descriptions of MR imaging findings lack uniformity, due to the absence of a validated quantitative approach. We developed a quantitative scoring method for brain injury based on anatomic MR imaging and examined the reliability and validity in correlation to motor function in children with hemiplegia. Twenty-seven children with hemiplegia underwent MR imaging (T1, T2-weighted sequences, DTI) and motor assessment (Manual Ability Classification System, Gross Motor Functional Classification System, Assisting Hand Assessment, Jebsen Taylor Test of Hand Function, and Children's Hand Experience Questionnaire). A scoring system devised in our center was applied to all scans. Radiologic score covered 4 domains: number of affected lobes, volume and type of white matter injury, extent of gray matter damage, and major white matter tract injury. Inter- and intrarater reliability was evaluated and the relationship between radiologic score and motor assessments determined. Mean total radiologic score was 11.3 ± 4.5 (range 4-18). Good inter- (ρ = 0.909, P classification systems (ρ = 0.708, P high inter- and intrarater reliability and significant associations with manual ability classification systems and motor evaluations. This score provides a standardized radiologic assessment of brain injury extent in hemiplegic patients with predominantly unilateral injury, allowing comparison between groups, and providing an additional tool for counseling families. © 2014 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

  1. Novel, customizable scoring functions, parameterized using N-PLS, for structure-based drug discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catana, Cornel; Stouten, Pieter F W

    2007-01-01

    The ability to accurately predict biological affinity on the basis of in silico docking to a protein target remains a challenging goal in the CADD arena. Typically, "standard" scoring functions have been employed that use the calculated docking result and a set of empirical parameters to calculate a predicted binding affinity. To improve on this, we are exploring novel strategies for rapidly developing and tuning "customized" scoring functions tailored to a specific need. In the present work, three such customized scoring functions were developed using a set of 129 high-resolution protein-ligand crystal structures with measured Ki values. The functions were parametrized using N-PLS (N-way partial least squares), a multivariate technique well-known in the 3D quantitative structure-activity relationship field. A modest correlation between observed and calculated pKi values using a standard scoring function (r2 = 0.5) could be improved to 0.8 when a customized scoring function was applied. To mimic a more realistic scenario, a second scoring function was developed, not based on crystal structures but exclusively on several binding poses generated with the Flo+ docking program. Finally, a validation study was conducted by generating a third scoring function with 99 randomly selected complexes from the 129 as a training set and predicting pKi values for a test set that comprised the remaining 30 complexes. Training and test set r2 values were 0.77 and 0.78, respectively. These results indicate that, even without direct structural information, predictive customized scoring functions can be developed using N-PLS, and this approach holds significant potential as a general procedure for predicting binding affinity on the basis of in silico docking.

  2. Physics-based scoring of protein-ligand interactions: explicit polarizability, quantum mechanics and free energies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryce, Richard A

    2011-04-01

    The ability to accurately predict the interaction of a ligand with its receptor is a key limitation in computer-aided drug design approaches such as virtual screening and de novo design. In this article, we examine current strategies for a physics-based approach to scoring of protein-ligand affinity, as well as outlining recent developments in force fields and quantum chemical techniques. We also consider advances in the development and application of simulation-based free energy methods to study protein-ligand interactions. Fuelled by recent advances in computational algorithms and hardware, there is the opportunity for increased integration of physics-based scoring approaches at earlier stages in computationally guided drug discovery. Specifically, we envisage increased use of implicit solvent models and simulation-based scoring methods as tools for computing the affinities of large virtual ligand libraries. Approaches based on end point simulations and reference potentials allow the application of more advanced potential energy functions to prediction of protein-ligand binding affinities. Comprehensive evaluation of polarizable force fields and quantum mechanical (QM)/molecular mechanical and QM methods in scoring of protein-ligand interactions is required, particularly in their ability to address challenging targets such as metalloproteins and other proteins that make highly polar interactions. Finally, we anticipate increasingly quantitative free energy perturbation and thermodynamic integration methods that are practical for optimization of hits obtained from screened ligand libraries.

  3. Sample size calculation to externally validate scoring systems based on logistic regression models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Palazón-Bru

    Full Text Available A sample size containing at least 100 events and 100 non-events has been suggested to validate a predictive model, regardless of the model being validated and that certain factors can influence calibration of the predictive model (discrimination, parameterization and incidence. Scoring systems based on binary logistic regression models are a specific type of predictive model.The aim of this study was to develop an algorithm to determine the sample size for validating a scoring system based on a binary logistic regression model and to apply it to a case study.The algorithm was based on bootstrap samples in which the area under the ROC curve, the observed event probabilities through smooth curves, and a measure to determine the lack of calibration (estimated calibration index were calculated. To illustrate its use for interested researchers, the algorithm was applied to a scoring system, based on a binary logistic regression model, to determine mortality in intensive care units.In the case study provided, the algorithm obtained a sample size with 69 events, which is lower than the value suggested in the literature.An algorithm is provided for finding the appropriate sample size to validate scoring systems based on binary logistic regression models. This could be applied to determine the sample size in other similar cases.

  4. Feature and Score Fusion Based Multiple Classifier Selection for Iris Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Rabiul Islam

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to propose a new feature and score fusion based iris recognition approach where voting method on Multiple Classifier Selection technique has been applied. Four Discrete Hidden Markov Model classifiers output, that is, left iris based unimodal system, right iris based unimodal system, left-right iris feature fusion based multimodal system, and left-right iris likelihood ratio score fusion based multimodal system, is combined using voting method to achieve the final recognition result. CASIA-IrisV4 database has been used to measure the performance of the proposed system with various dimensions. Experimental results show the versatility of the proposed system of four different classifiers with various dimensions. Finally, recognition accuracy of the proposed system has been compared with existing N hamming distance score fusion approach proposed by Ma et al., log-likelihood ratio score fusion approach proposed by Schmid et al., and single level feature fusion approach proposed by Hollingsworth et al.

  5. Prognostics of Power MOSFET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celaya, Jose Ramon; Saxena, Abhinav; Vashchenko, Vladislay; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2011-01-01

    This paper demonstrates how to apply prognostics to power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor). The methodology uses thermal cycling to age devices and Gaussian process regression to perform prognostics. The approach is validated with experiments on 100V power MOSFETs. The failure mechanism for the stress conditions is determined to be die-attachment degradation. Change in ON-state resistance is used as a precursor of failure due to its dependence on junction temperature. The experimental data is augmented with a finite element analysis simulation that is based on a two-transistor model. The simulation assists in the interpretation of the degradation phenomena and SOA (safe operation area) change.

  6. A urinary biomarker-based risk score correlates with multiparametric MRI for prostate cancer detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendriks, Rianne J; van der Leest, Marloes M G; Dijkstra, Siebren; Barentsz, Jelle O; Van Criekinge, Wim; Hulsbergen-van de Kaa, Christina A; Schalken, Jack A; Mulders, Peter F A; van Oort, Inge M

    2017-10-01

    Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnostics would greatly benefit from more accurate, non-invasive techniques for the detection of clinically significant disease, leading to a reduction of over-diagnosis and over-treatment. The aim of this study was to determine the association between a novel urinary biomarker-based risk score (SelectMDx), multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) outcomes, and biopsy results for PCa detection. This retrospective observational study used data from the validation study of the SelectMDx score, in which urine was collected after digital rectal examination from men undergoing prostate biopsies. A subset of these patients also underwent a mpMRI scan of the prostate. The indications for performing mpMRI were based on persistent clinical suspicion of PCa or local staging after PCa was found upon biopsy. All mpMRI images were centrally reviewed in 2016 by an experienced radiologist blinded for the urine test results and biopsy outcome. The PI-RADS version 2 was used. In total, 172 patients were included for analysis. Hundred (58%) patients had PCa detected upon prostate biopsy, of which 52 (52%) had high-grade disease correlated with a significantly higher SelectMDx score (P < 0.01). The median SelectMDx score was significantly higher in patients with a suspicious significant lesion on mpMRI compared to no suspicion of significant PCa (P < 0.01). For the prediction of mpMRI outcome, the area-under-the-curve of SelectMDx was 0.83 compared to 0.66 for PSA and 0.65 for PCA3. There was a positive association between SelectMDx score and the final PI-RADS grade. There was a statistically significant difference in SelectMDx score between PI-RADS 3 and 4 (P < 0.01) and between PI-RADS 4 and 5 (P < 0.01). The novel urinary biomarker-based SelectMDx score is a promising tool in PCa detection. This study showed promising results regarding the correlation between the SelectMDx score and mpMRI outcomes, outperforming PCA3. Our results suggest that this risk

  7. Non-localization and localization ROC analyses using clinically based scoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paquerault, Sophie; Samuelson, Frank W.; Myers, Kyle J.; Smith, Robert C.

    2009-02-01

    We are investigating the potential for differences in study conclusions when assessing the estimated impact of a computer-aided detection (CAD) system on readers' performance. The data utilized in this investigation were derived from a multi-reader multi-case observer study involving one hundred mammographic background images to which fixed-size and fixed-intensity Gaussian signals were added, generating a low- and high-intensity signal sets. The study setting allowed CAD assessment in two situations: when CAD sensitivity was 1) superior or 2) lower than the average reader. Seven readers were asked to review each set in the unaided and CAD-aided reading modes, mark and rate their findings. Using this data, we studied the effect on study conclusion of three clinically-based receiver operating characteristic (ROC) scoring definitions. These scoring definitions included both location-specific and non-location-specific rules. The results showed agreement in the estimated impact of CAD on the overall reader performance. In the study setting where CAD sensitivity is superior to the average reader, the mean difference in AUC between the CAD-aided read and unaided read was 0.049 (95%CIs: -0.027; 0.130) for the image scoring definition that is based on non-location-specific rules, and 0.104 (95%CIs: 0.036; 0.174) and 0.090 (95%CIs: 0.031; 0.155) for image scoring definitions that are based on location-specific rules. The increases in AUC were statistically significant for the location-specific scoring definitions. It was further observed that the variance on these estimates was reduced when using the location-specific scoring definitions compared to that using a non-location-specific scoring definition. In the study setting where CAD sensitivity is equivalent or lower than the average reader, the mean differences in AUC are slightly above 0.01 for all image scoring definitions. These increases in AUC were not statistical significant for any of the image scoring definitions

  8. Workplace-based assessments of junior doctors: do scores predict training difficulties?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Colin; Bhat, Sarita; Herbert, Anne; Baker, Paul

    2011-12-01

    Workplace-based assessment (WPBA) is an increasingly important part of postgraduate medical training and its results may be used as evidence of professional competence. This study evaluates the ability of WPBA to distinguish UK Foundation Programme (FP) doctors with training difficulties and its effectiveness as a surrogate marker for deficiencies in professional competence. We conducted a retrospective observational study using anonymised records for 1646 trainees in a single UK postgraduate deanery. Data for WPBAs conducted from August 2005 to April 2009 were extracted from the e-portfolio database. These data included all scores submitted by trainees in FP years 1 and 2 on mini-clinical evaluation exercise (mini-CEX), case-based discussion (CbD), direct observation of procedural skills (DOPS) and mini-peer assessment tool (mini-PAT) assessments. Records of trainees in difficulty, as identified by their educational supervisors, were tagged as index cases. Main outcome measures were odds ratios (ORs) for associations between mean WPBA scores and training difficulties. Further analyses by the reported aetiology of the training difficulty (health-, conduct- or performance-related) were performed. Of the 1646 trainees, 92 had been identified as being in difficulty. Mean CbD and mini-CEX scores were lower for trainees in difficulty and an association was found between identified training difficulties and average scores on the mini-CEX (OR = 0.54; p = 0.034) and CbD (OR = 0.39; p = 0.002). A receiver operator characteristic curve analysis of mean WPBA scores for diagnosing 'in difficulty' status yielded an area under the curve of 0.64, indicating weak predictive value. There was no statistical evidence that mean scores on DOPS and mini-PAT assessments differed between the two groups. Analysis of a large dataset of WPBA scores revealed significant associations between training difficulties and lower mean scores on both the mini-CEX and CbD. Models show that using WPBA

  9. A Rest Time-Based Prognostic Framework for State of Health Estimation of Lithium-Ion Batteries with Regeneration Phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taichun Qin

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available State of health (SOH prognostics is significant for safe and reliable usage of lithium-ion batteries. To accurately predict regeneration phenomena and improve long-term prediction performance of battery SOH, this paper proposes a rest time-based prognostic framework (RTPF in which the beginning time interval of two adjacent cycles is adopted to reflect the rest time. In this framework, SOH values of regeneration cycles, the number of cycles in regeneration regions and global degradation trends are extracted from raw SOH time series and predicted respectively, and then the three sets of prediction results are integrated to calculate the final overall SOH prediction values. Regeneration phenomena can be found by support vector machine and hyperplane shift (SVM-HS model by detecting long beginning time intervals. Gaussian process (GP model is utilized to predict the global degradation trend, and nonlinear models are utilized to predict the regeneration amplitude and the cycle number of each regeneration region. The proposed framework is validated through experimental data from the degradation tests of lithium-ion batteries. The results demonstrate that both the global degradation trend and the regeneration phenomena of the testing batteries can be well predicted. Moreover, compared with the published methods, more accurate SOH prediction results can be obtained under this framework.

  10. Machine learning classification with confidence: application of transductive conformal predictors to MRI-based diagnostic and prognostic markers in depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nouretdinov, Ilia; Costafreda, Sergi G; Gammerman, Alexander; Chervonenkis, Alexey; Vovk, Vladimir; Vapnik, Vladimir; Fu, Cynthia H Y

    2011-05-15

    There is rapidly accumulating evidence that the application of machine learning classification to neuroimaging measurements may be valuable for the development of diagnostic and prognostic prediction tools in psychiatry. However, current methods do not produce a measure of the reliability of the predictions. Knowing the risk of the error associated with a given prediction is essential for the development of neuroimaging-based clinical tools. We propose a general probabilistic classification method to produce measures of confidence for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. We describe the application of transductive conformal predictor (TCP) to MRI images. TCP generates the most likely prediction and a valid measure of confidence, as well as the set of all possible predictions for a given confidence level. We present the theoretical motivation for TCP, and we have applied TCP to structural and functional MRI data in patients and healthy controls to investigate diagnostic and prognostic prediction in depression. We verify that TCP predictions are as accurate as those obtained with more standard machine learning methods, such as support vector machine, while providing the additional benefit of a valid measure of confidence for each prediction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: rank-based nonlinear predictability score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naro, Daniel; Rummel, Christian; Schindler, Kaspar; Andrzejak, Ralph G

    2014-09-01

    The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

  12. Model-based prognostics for batteries which estimates useful life and uses a probability density function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Bhaskar (Inventor); Goebel, Kai F. (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    This invention develops a mathematical model to describe battery behavior during individual discharge cycles as well as over its cycle life. The basis for the form of the model has been linked to the internal processes of the battery and validated using experimental data. Effects of temperature and load current have also been incorporated into the model. Subsequently, the model has been used in a Particle Filtering framework to make predictions of remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles as well as for cycle life. The prediction performance was found to be satisfactory as measured by performance metrics customized for prognostics for a sample case. The work presented here provides initial steps towards a comprehensive health management solution for energy storage devices.

  13. Prognostic Health Management System: Component Selection Based on Risk Criteria and Economic Benefit Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, B.T.; Agarwal, V.; Lybeck, N.J.; Tawfik, M.S.

    2012-01-01

    Long-term operation (LTO), i.e., beyond 60 years, of the current fleet of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is an important element in the overall energy stability of the United States in coming decades. Problem Statement and Proposed Approach: - For LTO of NPPs, early and proactive diagnosis of degradation at systems, structures, and components (SSCs) level is required; - Periodic maintenance versus Proactive maintenance; - Prognostic Health Monitoring (PHM) can be used to better manage aging and degradation mechanisms, including emerging mechanisms; - Selection of components is crucial for implementing the PHM system; - Approach is to develop a quantitative framework that aids systematic identification of plant components that are selected for cost-effective PHM.

  14. Rough Set Theory based prognostication of life expectancy for terminally ill patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil-Herrera, Eleazar; Yalcin, Ali; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Barnes, Laura E; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2011-01-01

    We present a novel knowledge discovery methodology that relies on Rough Set Theory to predict the life expectancy of terminally ill patients in an effort to improve the hospice referral process. Life expectancy prognostication is particularly valuable for terminally ill patients since it enables them and their families to initiate end-of-life discussions and choose the most desired management strategy for the remainder of their lives. We utilize retrospective data from 9105 patients to demonstrate the design and implementation details of a series of classifiers developed to identify potential hospice candidates. Preliminary results confirm the efficacy of the proposed methodology. We envision our work as a part of a comprehensive decision support system designed to assist terminally ill patients in making end-of-life care decisions.

  15. Enhanced Prognostic Model for Lithium Ion Batteries Based on Particle Filter State Transition Model Modification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buddhi Arachchige

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on predicting the End of Life and End of Discharge of Lithium ion batteries using a battery capacity fade model and a battery discharge model. The proposed framework will be able to estimate the Remaining Useful Life (RUL and the Remaining charge through capacity fade and discharge models. A particle filter is implemented that estimates the battery’s State of Charge (SOC and State of Life (SOL by utilizing the battery’s physical data such as voltage, temperature, and current measurements. The accuracy of the prognostic framework has been improved by enhancing the particle filter state transition model to incorporate different environmental and loading conditions without retuning the model parameters. The effect of capacity fade in the reduction of the EOD (End of Discharge time with cycling has also been included, integrating both EOL (End of Life and EOD prediction models in order to get more accuracy in the estimations.

  16. Condition Based Prognostics of Passive Components - A New Era for Nuclear Power Plant Life Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakhtiari, S.; Mohanty, S.; Prokofiev, I.; Tregoning, R.

    2012-01-01

    As part of a research project sponsored by the U.S. NRC, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) conducted scoping studies to identify viable and promising sensors and techniques for in-situ inspection and real-time monitoring of degradation in nuclear power plant (NPP) systems, structures, and components (SSC). Significant advances have been made over the past two decades toward development of online monitoring (OLM) techniques for detection, diagnostics, and prognostics of degradation in active nuclear power plant (NPP) components (e.g., pumps, valves). However, early detection of damage and degradation in safety-critical passive components, (e.g. piping, tubing pressure vessel), is challenging, and will likely remain so for the foreseeable future. Ensuring the structural integrity of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) and piping systems in particular is a prerequisite to long term safe operation of NPPs. The current practice is to implement inservice inspection (ISI) and preventive maintenance programs. While these programs have generally been successful, they are limited in that information is only obtained during plant outages. Additionally, these inspections, often the critical path in the outage schedule, are costly, time consuming, and involve potentially high dose to nondestructive examination/evaluation (NDE) personnel. A viable plant-wide on-line structural health monitoring program for continuous and automatic monitoring of critical SSCs could be a more effective approach for guarding against unexpected failures. Specifically, OLM information about the current condition of the SSCs could be input to an online prognostics (OLP) system to forecast their remaining useful life in real time. This paper provides an overview of scoping studies performed at ANL on assessing the viability of OLM and OLP systems for real time and automated monitoring and remaining of condition and the remaining useful life of passive components in NPPs. (author)

  17. Assessing pediatric ileocolonic Crohn's disease activity based on global MR enterography scores

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pomerri, Fabio; Zuliani, Monica; Giorgi, Benedetta; Muzzio, Pier Carlo [University of Padova, Department of Medicine-DIMED, Padova (Italy); Al Bunni, Faise [Rovigo Hospital, Radiology Unit, S. Maria della Misericordia, Rovigo (Italy); Guariso, Graziella; Gasparetto, Marco; Cananzi, Mara [University of Padova, Department of Women and Child Health, Padova (Italy)

    2017-03-15

    This study was aimed at correlating a magnetic resonance index of activity (MaRIA) and a magnetic resonance enterography global score (MEGS) with activity indexes in a paediatric population with Crohn's disease (CD). This retrospective study included 32 paediatric patients (median age 14.5 years, 18 male) with proven CD who underwent magnetic resonance enterography (MRE). A correlation analysis was performed on the MRE-based scores, the simplified endoscopic score for CD (SES-CD), the paediatric Crohn's disease activity index (PCDAI), and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. Based on PCDAI, comparison of both global MaRIA and MEGS was made between patients with mild and moderate/severe disease activity. Global MaRIA correlated with SES-CD (r = 0.70, p = 0.001) and PCDAI (r = 0.42, p = 0.016). MEGS correlated with PCDAI (r = 0.46, p = 0.007) and CRP levels (r = 0.35, p = 0.046). MEGS differed significantly (p = 0.027) between patients grouped by clinical disease severity. MRE-based global scores correlated with clinical indexes of CD activity. Therefore, they represent a potential useful tool to predict CD activity and severity, as well as a possible promising alternative to endoscopy, to monitor paediatric patients with CD during their follow-up. (orig.)

  18. Associations of genetic risk scores based on adult adiposity pathways with childhood growth and adiposity measures

    OpenAIRE

    Monnereau, Claire; Vogelezang, Suzanne; Kruithof, Claudia J.; Jaddoe, Vincent W. V.; Felix, Janine F.

    2016-01-01

    Background Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identified many loci and biological pathways that influence adult body mass index (BMI). We aimed to identify if biological pathways related to adult BMI also affect infant growth and childhood adiposity measures. Methods We used data from a population-based prospective cohort study among 3,975 children with a mean age of 6?years. Genetic risk scores were constructed based on the 97 SNPs associated with adult BMI previously identi...

  19. ACCURATUM: improved calcium volume scoring using a mesh-based algorithm - a phantom study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saur, Stefan C.; Szekely, Gabor; Alkadhi, Hatem; Desbiolles, Lotus; Cattin, Philippe C.

    2009-01-01

    To overcome the limitations of the classical volume scoring method for quantifying coronary calcifications, including accuracy, variability between examinations, and dependency on plaque density and acquisition parameters, a mesh-based volume measurement method has been developed. It was evaluated and compared with the classical volume scoring method for accuracy, i.e., the normalized volume (measured volume/ground-truthed volume), and for variability between examinations (standard deviation of accuracy). A cardiac computed-tomography (CT) phantom containing various cylindrical calcifications was scanned using different tube voltages and reconstruction kernels, at various positions and orientations on the CT table and using different slice thicknesses. Mean accuracy for all plaques was significantly higher (p<0.0001) for the proposed method (1.220±0.507) than for the classical volume score (1.896±1.095). In contrast to the classical volume score, plaque density (p=0.84), reconstruction kernel (p=0.19), and tube voltage (p=0.27) had no impact on the accuracy of the developed method. In conclusion, the method presented herein is more accurate than classical calcium scoring and is less dependent on tube voltage, reconstruction kernel, and plaque density. (orig.)

  20. Additive prognostic value of left ventricular ejection fraction to the TIMI risk score for in-hospital and long-term mortality in patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xue-Biao; Liu, Yuan-Hui; He, Peng-Cheng; Jiang, Lei; Zhou, Ying-Ling; Chen, Ji-Yan; Tan, Ning; Yu, Dan-Qing

    2017-01-01

    To investigate whether the addition of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) to the TIMI risk score enhances the prediction of in-hospital and long-term death in ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. 673 patients with STEMI were divided into three groups based on TIMI risk score for STEMI: low-risk group (TIMI ≤3, n = 213), moderate-risk group (TIMI 4-6, n = 285), and high-risk group (TIMI ≥7, n = 175). The predictive value was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine risk predictors. The rates of in-hospital death (0.5 vs 3.2 vs 10.3 %, p risk group. Multivariate analysis showed that TIMI risk score (OR 1.24, 95 % CI 1.04-1.48, P = 0.015) and LVEF (OR 3.85, 95 % CI 1.58-10.43, P = 0.004) were independent predictors of in-hospital death. LVEF had good predictive value for in-hospital death (AUC: 0.838 vs 0.803, p = 0.571) or 1-year death (AUC: 0.743 vs 0.728, p = 0.775), which was similar to TIMI risk score. When compared with the TIMI risk score alone, the addition of LVEF was associated with significant improvements in predicting in-hospital (AUC: 0.854 vs 0.803, p = 0.033) or 1-year death (AUC: 0.763 vs 0.728, p = 0.016). The addition of LVEF to TIMI risk score enhanced net reclassification improvement (0.864 for in-hospital death, p value to TIMI risk score.

  1. p53 nuclear accumulation and multiploidy are adverse prognostic factors in surgically resected stage II colorectal cancers independent of fluorouracil-based adjuvant therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buglioni, S; D'Agnano, I; Vasselli, S; Perrone Donnorso, R; D'Angelo, C; Brenna, A; Benevolo, M; Cosimelli, M; Zupi, G; Mottolese, M

    2001-09-01

    To identify the prognostically highest risk patients, DNA content and p53 nuclear or cytoplasmic accumulation, evaluated by monoclonal antibody DO7 and polyclonal antibody CM1, were determined in 94 surgically resected stage II (Dukes B2) colorectal cancers, treated or not with adjuvant 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy. Sixty-one (65%) of the tumors were aneuploid, 16 (17%) of which had a multiploid DNA content; 50 (53%) displayed DO7 nuclear p53 accumulation, and 44 (47%) showed cytoplasmic CM1 positivity. In multivariate analysis, only multiploidy and p53 nuclear positivity emerged as independent prognostic indicators of a poorer outcome. Positivity for p53 was associated with shorter survival in 5-fluorouracil-treated and untreated patients. Therefore, in patients with Dukes B2 colorectal cancer, a biologic profile based on the combined evaluation of DNA multiploidy and p53 status can provide valuable prognostic information, identifying patients to be enrolled in alternative, more aggressive therapeutic trials.

  2. A score based on screening tests to differentiate mild cognitive impairment from subjective memory complaints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fábio Henrique de Gobbi Porto

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available It is not easy to differentiate patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI from subjective memory complainers (SMC. Assessments with screening cognitive tools are essential, particularly in primary care where most patients are seen. The objective of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of screening cognitive tests and to propose a score derived from screening tests. Elderly subjects with memory complaints were evaluated using the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE and the Brief Cognitive Battery (BCB. We added two delayed recalls in the MMSE (a delayed recall and a late-delayed recall, LDR, and also a phonemic fluency test of letter P fluency (LPF. A score was created based on these tests. The diagnoses were made on the basis of clinical consensus and neuropsychological testing. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were used to determine area under the curve (AUC, the sensitivity and specificity for each test separately and for the final proposed score. MMSE, LDR, LPF and delayed recall of BCB scores reach statistically significant differences between groups (P=0.000, 0.03, 0.001 and 0.01, respectively. Sensitivity, specificity and AUC were MMSE: 64%, 79% and 0.75 (cut off <29; LDR: 56%, 62% and 0.62 (cut off <3; LPF: 71%, 71% and 0.71 (cut off <14; delayed recall of BCB: 56%, 82% and 0.68 (cut off <9. The proposed score reached a sensitivity of 88% and 76% and specificity of 62% and 75% for cut off over 1 and over 2, respectively. AUC were 0.81. In conclusion, a score created from screening tests is capable of discriminating MCI from SMC with moderate to good accurancy.

  3. AUC-based biomarker ensemble with an application on gene scores predicting low bone mineral density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, X G; Dai, W; Li, Y; Tian, L

    2011-11-01

    The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), long regarded as a 'golden' measure for the predictiveness of a continuous score, has propelled the need to develop AUC-based predictors. However, the AUC-based ensemble methods are rather scant, largely due to the fact that the associated objective function is neither continuous nor concave. Indeed, there is no reliable numerical algorithm identifying optimal combination of a set of biomarkers to maximize the AUC, especially when the number of biomarkers is large. We have proposed a novel AUC-based statistical ensemble methods for combining multiple biomarkers to differentiate a binary response of interest. Specifically, we propose to replace the non-continuous and non-convex AUC objective function by a convex surrogate loss function, whose minimizer can be efficiently identified. With the established framework, the lasso and other regularization techniques enable feature selections. Extensive simulations have demonstrated the superiority of the new methods to the existing methods. The proposal has been applied to a gene expression dataset to construct gene expression scores to differentiate elderly women with low bone mineral density (BMD) and those with normal BMD. The AUCs of the resulting scores in the independent test dataset has been satisfactory. Aiming for directly maximizing AUC, the proposed AUC-based ensemble method provides an efficient means of generating a stable combination of multiple biomarkers, which is especially useful under the high-dimensional settings. lutian@stanford.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  4. Molecular Classification Substitutes for the Prognostic Variables Stage, Age, and MYCN Status in Neuroblastoma Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Rosswog

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Current risk stratification systems for neuroblastoma patients consider clinical, histopathological, and genetic variables, and additional prognostic markers have been proposed in recent years. We here sought to select highly informative covariates in a multistep strategy based on consecutive Cox regression models, resulting in a risk score that integrates hazard ratios of prognostic variables. METHODS: A cohort of 695 neuroblastoma patients was divided into a discovery set (n = 75 for multigene predictor generation, a training set (n = 411 for risk score development, and a validation set (n = 209. Relevant prognostic variables were identified by stepwise multivariable L1-penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO Cox regression, followed by backward selection in multivariable Cox regression, and then integrated into a novel risk score. RESULTS: The variables stage, age, MYCN status, and two multigene predictors, NB-th24 and NB-th44, were selected as independent prognostic markers by LASSO Cox regression analysis. Following backward selection, only the multigene predictors were retained in the final model. Integration of these classifiers in a risk scoring system distinguished three patient subgroups that differed substantially in their outcome. The scoring system discriminated patients with diverging outcome in the validation cohort (5-year event-free survival, 84.9 ± 3.4 vs 63.6 ± 14.5 vs 31.0 ± 5.4; P < .001, and its prognostic value was validated by multivariable analysis. CONCLUSION: We here propose a translational strategy for developing risk assessment systems based on hazard ratios of relevant prognostic variables. Our final neuroblastoma risk score comprised two multigene predictors only, supporting the notion that molecular properties of the tumor cells strongly impact clinical courses of neuroblastoma patients.

  5. Molecular Classification Substitutes for the Prognostic Variables Stage, Age, and MYCN Status in Neuroblastoma Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosswog, Carolina; Schmidt, Rene; Oberthuer, André; Juraeva, Dilafruz; Brors, Benedikt; Engesser, Anne; Kahlert, Yvonne; Volland, Ruth; Bartenhagen, Christoph; Simon, Thorsten; Berthold, Frank; Hero, Barbara; Faldum, Andreas; Fischer, Matthias

    2017-12-01

    Current risk stratification systems for neuroblastoma patients consider clinical, histopathological, and genetic variables, and additional prognostic markers have been proposed in recent years. We here sought to select highly informative covariates in a multistep strategy based on consecutive Cox regression models, resulting in a risk score that integrates hazard ratios of prognostic variables. A cohort of 695 neuroblastoma patients was divided into a discovery set (n=75) for multigene predictor generation, a training set (n=411) for risk score development, and a validation set (n=209). Relevant prognostic variables were identified by stepwise multivariable L1-penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, followed by backward selection in multivariable Cox regression, and then integrated into a novel risk score. The variables stage, age, MYCN status, and two multigene predictors, NB-th24 and NB-th44, were selected as independent prognostic markers by LASSO Cox regression analysis. Following backward selection, only the multigene predictors were retained in the final model. Integration of these classifiers in a risk scoring system distinguished three patient subgroups that differed substantially in their outcome. The scoring system discriminated patients with diverging outcome in the validation cohort (5-year event-free survival, 84.9±3.4 vs 63.6±14.5 vs 31.0±5.4; P<.001), and its prognostic value was validated by multivariable analysis. We here propose a translational strategy for developing risk assessment systems based on hazard ratios of relevant prognostic variables. Our final neuroblastoma risk score comprised two multigene predictors only, supporting the notion that molecular properties of the tumor cells strongly impact clinical courses of neuroblastoma patients. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Simple prognostic model for patients with advanced cancer based on performance status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Raymond W; Caraiscos, Valerie B; Swami, Nadia; Banerjee, Subrata; Mak, Ernie; Kaya, Ebru; Rodin, Gary; Bryson, John; Ridley, Julia Z; Le, Lisa W; Zimmermann, Camilla

    2014-09-01

    Providing survival estimates is important for decision making in oncology care. The purpose of this study was to provide survival estimates for outpatients with advanced cancer, using the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG), Palliative Performance Scale (PPS), and Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) scales, and to compare their ability to predict survival. ECOG, PPS, and KPS were completed by physicians for each new patient attending the Princess Margaret Cancer Centre outpatient Oncology Palliative Care Clinic (OPCC) from April 2007 to February 2010. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The log-rank test for trend was employed to test for differences in survival curves for each level of performance status (PS), and the concordance index (C-statistic) was used to test the predictive discriminatory ability of each PS measure. Measures were completed for 1,655 patients. PS delineated survival well for all three scales according to the log-rank test for trend (P statistic was similar for all three scales and ranged from 0.63 to 0.64. We present a simple tool that uses PS alone to prognosticate in advanced cancer, and has similar discriminatory ability to more complex models. Copyright © 2014 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

  7. A Web-based Peer Assessment System for Assigning Student Scores in Cooperative Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anon Sukstrienwong

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Working in groups has become increasingly important in order to develop students' skills. However, it can be more successful when peers cooperate and are involved in the assigned tasks. However, several educators firmly show disadvantages when all peers received the same reward, regardless of individual contribution. Some teachers also considering peer assessment to be time and effort consuming because preparation and monitoring are needed. In order to overcome these problems, we have developed a web-based peer assessment referred to as the ‘Scoring by Peer Assessment System’ (SPAS that allows teachers to set up the process of peer assessment, in order to assign scores that reflect the contribution of each student. Moreover, a web-based application allows students to evaluate their peers regarding their individual contribution where cooperative learning and peer assessment are used. The paper describes the system design and the implementation of our peer assessment application.

  8. Validation of the German Diabetes Risk Score within a population-based representative cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartwig, S; Kuss, O; Tiller, D; Greiser, K H; Schulze, M B; Dierkes, J; Werdan, K; Haerting, J; Kluttig, A

    2013-09-01

    To validate the German Diabetes Risk Score within the population-based cohort of the Cardiovascular Disease - Living and Ageing in Halle (CARLA) study. The sample included 582 women and 719 men, aged 45-83 years, who did not have diabetes at baseline. The individual risk of every participant was calculated using the German Diabetes Risk Score, which was modified for 4 years of follow-up. Predicted probabilities and observed outcomes were compared using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests and receiver-operator characteristic analyses. Changes in prediction power were investigated by expanding the German Diabetes Risk Score to include metabolic variables and by subgroup analyses. We found 58 cases of incident diabetes. The median 4-year probability of developing diabetes based on the German Diabetes Risk Score was 6.5%. The observed and predicted probabilities of developing diabetes were similar, although estimation was imprecise owing to the small number of cases, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test returned a poor correlation (chi-squared = 55.3; P = 5.8*10⁻¹²). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.70 (95% CI 0.64-0.77), and after excluding participants ≥66 years old, the AUC increased to 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.84). Consideration of glycaemic diagnostic variables, in addition to self-reported diabetes, reduced the AUC to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.71). A new model that included the German Diabetes Risk Score and blood glucose concentration (AUC 0.81; 95% CI 0.76-0.86) or HbA(1c) concentration (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.80-0.91) was found to peform better. Application of the German Diabetes Risk Score in the CARLA cohort did not reproduce the findings in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Potsdam study, which may be explained by cohort differences and model overfit in the latter; however, a high score does provide an indication of increased risk of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2013 Diabetes

  9. Randomized clinical trial of Appendicitis Inflammatory Response score-based management of patients with suspected appendicitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, M; Kolodziej, B; Andersson, R E

    2017-10-01

    The role of imaging in the diagnosis of appendicitis is controversial. This prospective interventional study and nested randomized trial analysed the impact of implementing a risk stratification algorithm based on the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response (AIR) score, and compared routine imaging with selective imaging after clinical reassessment. Patients presenting with suspicion of appendicitis between September 2009 and January 2012 from age 10 years were included at 21 emergency surgical centres and from age 5 years at three university paediatric centres. Registration of clinical characteristics, treatments and outcomes started during the baseline period. The AIR score-based algorithm was implemented during the intervention period. Intermediate-risk patients were randomized to routine imaging or selective imaging after clinical reassessment. The baseline period included 1152 patients, and the intervention period 2639, of whom 1068 intermediate-risk patients were randomized. In low-risk patients, use of the AIR score-based algorithm resulted in less imaging (19·2 versus 34·5 per cent; P appendicitis (6·8 versus 9·7 per cent; P = 0·034). Intermediate-risk patients randomized to the imaging and observation groups had the same proportion of negative appendicectomies (6·4 versus 6·7 per cent respectively; P = 0·884), number of admissions, number of perforations and length of hospital stay, but routine imaging was associated with an increased proportion of patients treated for appendicitis (53·4 versus 46·3 per cent; P = 0·020). AIR score-based risk classification can safely reduce the use of diagnostic imaging and hospital admissions in patients with suspicion of appendicitis. Registration number: NCT00971438 ( http://www.clinicaltrials.gov). © 2017 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Local Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Segmental Transarterial Chemoembolization: Risk Estimates Based on Multiple Prognostic Factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Seung Hyun; Cho, Yun Ku; Ahn, Yong Sik; Park, Yoon Ok; Kim, Jae Kyun; Chung, Jin Wook

    2007-01-01

    To determine the prognostic factors for local recurrence of nodular hepatocellular carcinoma after segmental transarterial chemoembolization. Seventy-four nodular hepatocellular carcinoma tumors ≤5 cm were retrospectively analyzed for local recurrence after segmental transarterial chemoembolization using follow-up CT images (median follow-up of 17 months, 4 77 months in range). The tumors were divided into four groups (IA, IB, IIA, and IIB) according to whether the one-month follow-up CT imaging, after segmental transarterial chemoembolization, showed homogeneous (Group I) or inhomogeneous (Group II) iodized oil accumulation, or whether the tumors were located within the liver segment (Group A) or in a segmental border zone (Group B). Comparison of tumor characteristics between Group IA and the other three groups was performed using the chi-square test. Local recurrence rates were compared among the groups using the Kaplan-Meier estimation and log rank test. Local tumor recurrence occurred in 19 hepatocellular carcinoma tumors (25.7%). There were: 28, 18, 17, and 11 tumors in Group IA, IB, IIA, and IIB, respectively. One of 28 (3.6%) tumors in Group IA, and 18 of 46 (39.1%) tumors in the other three groups showed local recurrence. Comparisons between Group IA and the other three groups showed that the tumor characteristics were similar. One-, two-, and three-year estimated local recurrence rates in Group IA were 0%, 11.1%, and 11.1%, respectively. The difference between Group IA and the other three groups was statistically significant (p 0.000). An acceptably low rate of local recurrence was observed for small or intermediate nodular tumors located within the liver segment with homogeneous iodized oil accumulation

  11. An adaptive functional regression-based prognostic model for applications with missing data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Xiaolei; Zhou, Rensheng; Gebraeel, Nagi

    2015-01-01

    Most prognostic degradation models rely on a relatively accurate and comprehensive database of historical degradation signals. Typically, these signals are used to identify suitable degradation trends that are useful for predicting lifetime. In many real-world applications, these degradation signals are usually incomplete, i.e., contain missing observations. Often the amount of missing data compromises the ability to identify a suitable parametric degradation model. This paper addresses this problem by developing a semi-parametric approach that can be used to predict the remaining lifetime of partially degraded systems. First, key signal features are identified by applying Functional Principal Components Analysis (FPCA) to the available historical data. Next, an adaptive functional regression model is used to model the extracted signal features and the corresponding times-to-failure. The model is then used to predict remaining lifetimes and to update these predictions using real-time signals observed from fielded components. Results show that the proposed approach is relatively robust to significant levels of missing data. The performance of the model is evaluated and shown to provide significantly accurate predictions of residual lifetime using two case studies. - Highlights: • We model degradation signals with missing data with the goal of predicting remaining lifetime. • We examine two types of signal characteristics, fragmented and sparse. • We provide framework that updates remaining life predictions by incorporating real-time signal observations. • For the missing data, we show that the proposed model outperforms other benchmark models. • For the complete data, we show that the proposed model performs at least as good as a benchmark model

  12. Combined time-varying forecast based on the proper scoring approach for wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Xingying; Jiang, Yu; Yu, Kun

    2017-01-01

    Compared with traditional point forecasts, combined forecast have been proposed as an effective method to provide more accurate forecasts than individual model. However, the literature and research focus on wind-power combined forecasts are relatively limited. Here, based on forecasting error...... distribution, a proper scoring approach is applied to combine plausible models to form an overall time-varying model for the next day forecasts, rather than weights-based combination. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, real data of 3 years were used for testing. Simulation results...... demonstrate that the proposed method improves the accuracy of overall forecasts, even compared with a numerical weather prediction....

  13. The need for additional genetic markers for MDS stratification: what does the future hold for prognostication?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otrock, Zaher K.; Tiu, Ramon V.; Maciejewski, Jaroslaw P.; Sekeres, Mikkael A.

    2013-01-01

    Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) constitute a heterogeneous group of clonal hematopoietic disorders. Metaphase cytogenetics (MC) has been the gold standard for genetic testing in MDS, but it can detect clonal cytogenetic abnormalities in only 50% of cases. New karyotyping tests include fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), array-based comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH), and single nucleotide polymorphism arrays (SNP-A). These techniques have increased the detected genetic abnormalities in MDS, many of which confer prognostic significance to overall and leukemia-free survival. This has eventually increased our understanding of MDS genetics. With the help of new technologies, we anticipate that the existing prognostic scoring systems will incorporate mutational data into their parameters. This review discusses the progress in MDS diagnosis through the use of array-based technologies. We also discuss the recently investigated genetic mutation in MDS, and revisit the MDS classification and prognostic scoring systems. PMID:23373781

  14. Continuing Medical Education Speakers with High Evaluation Scores Use more Image-based Slides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferguson, Ian

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Although continuing medical education (CME presentations are common across health professions, it is unknown whether slide design is independently associated with audience evaluations of the speaker. Based on the conceptual framework of Mayer’s theory of multimedia learning, this study aimed to determine whether image use and text density in presentation slides are associated with overall speaker evaluations. This retrospective analysis of six sequential CME conferences (two annual emergency medicine conferences over a three-year period used a mixed linear regression model to assess whether postconference speaker evaluations were associated with image fraction (percentage of image-based slides per presentation and text density (number of words per slide. A total of 105 unique lectures were given by 49 faculty members, and 1,222 evaluations (70.1% response rate were available for analysis. On average, 47.4% (SD=25.36 of slides had at least one educationally-relevant image (image fraction. Image fraction significantly predicted overall higher evaluation scores [F(1, 100.676=6.158, p=0.015] in the mixed linear regression model. The mean (SD text density was 25.61 (8.14 words/slide but was not a significant predictor [F(1, 86.293=0.55, p=0.815]. Of note, the individual speaker [χ2 (1=2.952, p=0.003] and speaker seniority [F(3, 59.713=4.083, p=0.011] significantly predicted higher scores. This is the first published study to date assessing the linkage between slide design and CME speaker evaluations by an audience of practicing clinicians. The incorporation of images was associated with higher evaluation scores, in alignment with Mayer’s theory of multimedia learning. Contrary to this theory, however, text density showed no significant association, suggesting that these scores may be multifactorial. Professional development efforts should focus on teaching best practices in both slide design and presentation skills.

  15. Population-based metabolic syndrome risk score and its determinants: The Isfahan Healthy Heart Program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Hosseini

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetSy, an important predisposing factor for the most of noncommunicable diseases, has become a global pandemic. Given different definitions used for the MetSy, recently using a score termed "continuous MetSy risk score (CMetSyS" is recommended. The aim of this study was to provide a CMetSyS in a population-based sample of Iranian adults and to assess its determinants. Materials and Methods: We used the data of the baseline survey of a community trial entitled "the Isfahan health heart program." The MetSy was defined according to the Revised National Cholesterol Education Program Third Adult Treatment Panel. All probable predictive models and their predictive performance were provided using leave-one-out cross-validated logistic regression and the receiver operation characteristic curve methods. Multiple linear regression was performed to assess factors associated with the CMetSyS. Results: The study population consisted of 8313 persons (49.9% male, mean age 38.54 ± 15.86 years. The MetSy was documented in 1539 persons (21.86%. Triglycerides and waist circumference were the best predictive components, and fasting plasma glucose had the lowest area under curve (AUC. The AUC for our best model was 95.36 (94.83-95.83%. The best predictive cutoff for this risk score was −1.151 with 89% sensitivity and 87.93% specificity. Conclusion: We provided four population-based leave-one-out cross-validated risk score models, with moderate to perfect predictive performance to identify the MetSy in Iranian adults. The CMetSyS had significant associations with high sensitive C-reactive protein, body mass index, leisure time, and workplace physical activity as well as age and gender.

  16. Continuing Medical Education Speakers with High Evaluation Scores Use more Image-based Slides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Ian; Phillips, Andrew W; Lin, Michelle

    2017-01-01

    Although continuing medical education (CME) presentations are common across health professions, it is unknown whether slide design is independently associated with audience evaluations of the speaker. Based on the conceptual framework of Mayer's theory of multimedia learning, this study aimed to determine whether image use and text density in presentation slides are associated with overall speaker evaluations. This retrospective analysis of six sequential CME conferences (two annual emergency medicine conferences over a three-year period) used a mixed linear regression model to assess whether post-conference speaker evaluations were associated with image fraction (percentage of image-based slides per presentation) and text density (number of words per slide). A total of 105 unique lectures were given by 49 faculty members, and 1,222 evaluations (70.1% response rate) were available for analysis. On average, 47.4% (SD=25.36) of slides had at least one educationally-relevant image (image fraction). Image fraction significantly predicted overall higher evaluation scores [F(1, 100.676)=6.158, p=0.015] in the mixed linear regression model. The mean (SD) text density was 25.61 (8.14) words/slide but was not a significant predictor [F(1, 86.293)=0.55, p=0.815]. Of note, the individual speaker [χ 2 (1)=2.952, p=0.003] and speaker seniority [F(3, 59.713)=4.083, p=0.011] significantly predicted higher scores. This is the first published study to date assessing the linkage between slide design and CME speaker evaluations by an audience of practicing clinicians. The incorporation of images was associated with higher evaluation scores, in alignment with Mayer's theory of multimedia learning. Contrary to this theory, however, text density showed no significant association, suggesting that these scores may be multifactorial. Professional development efforts should focus on teaching best practices in both slide design and presentation skills.

  17. The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

    2013-01-01

    AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

  18. Prognostic Significance of Combination of Preoperative Platelet Count and Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio (COP-NLR in Patients with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Based on a Large Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Zhang

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic significance of the combination of the preoperative platelet count and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (COP-NLR for predicting postoperative survival of patients undergoing complete resection for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC.The preoperative COP-NLR was calculated on the basis of data obtained.Patients with both an increased platelet count (>30.0 × 104 mm(-3 and an elevated NLR (>2.3 were assigned a score of 2, and patients with one or neither were assigned as a score of 1 or 0, respectively.A total of 1238 NSCLC patients were enrolled in this analysis. Multivariate analysis using the 15 clinicolaboratory variables selected by univariate analyses demonstrated that the preoperative COP-NLR was an independent prognostic factor for DFS (HR: 1.834, 95%CI: 1.536 to 2.200, P<0.001 and OS (HR: 1.810, 95%CI: 1.587 to 2.056, P<0.001. In sub-analyses by tumor stage (I, II, IIIA, a significant association was found between DFS and OS and level of COP-NLR in each subgroup (P<0.001, P=0.002, P<0.001 for DFS, respectively; P<0.001, P=0.001, P<0.001 for OS. When the subgroup of patients with high-risk COP-NLR (score of 2 was analyzed, no benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy could be found (P=0.237 for DFS and P=0.165 for OS.The preoperative COP-NLR is able to predict the prognosis of patients with NSCLC and divide these patients into three independent groups before surgery. Our results also demonstrate that high-risk patients based on the COP-NLR do not benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. Independent validation of our findings is warranted.

  19. Gene network inherent in genomic big data improves the accuracy of prognostic prediction for cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yun Hak; Jeong, Dae Cheon; Pak, Kyoungjune; Goh, Tae Sik; Lee, Chi-Seung; Han, Myoung-Eun; Kim, Ji-Young; Liangwen, Liu; Kim, Chi Dae; Jang, Jeon Yeob; Cha, Wonjae; Oh, Sae-Ock

    2017-09-29

    Accurate prediction of prognosis is critical for therapeutic decisions regarding cancer patients. Many previously developed prognostic scoring systems have limitations in reflecting recent progress in the field of cancer biology such as microarray, next-generation sequencing, and signaling pathways. To develop a new prognostic scoring system for cancer patients, we used mRNA expression and clinical data in various independent breast cancer cohorts (n=1214) from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). A new prognostic score that reflects gene network inherent in genomic big data was calculated using Network-Regularized high-dimensional Cox-regression (Net-score). We compared its discriminatory power with those of two previously used statistical methods: stepwise variable selection via univariate Cox regression (Uni-score) and Cox regression via Elastic net (Enet-score). The Net scoring system showed better discriminatory power in prediction of disease-specific survival (DSS) than other statistical methods (p=0 in METABRIC training cohort, p=0.000331, 4.58e-06 in two METABRIC validation cohorts) when accuracy was examined by log-rank test. Notably, comparison of C-index and AUC values in receiver operating characteristic analysis at 5 years showed fewer differences between training and validation cohorts with the Net scoring system than other statistical methods, suggesting minimal overfitting. The Net-based scoring system also successfully predicted prognosis in various independent GEO cohorts with high discriminatory power. In conclusion, the Net-based scoring system showed better discriminative power than previous statistical methods in prognostic prediction for breast cancer patients. This new system will mark a new era in prognosis prediction for cancer patients.

  20. Prognostic Value of Electrocardiographic Left Ventricular Hypertrophy on Cardiovascular Risk in a Non-hypertensive Community-based Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Kentaro; Tanaka, Fumitaka; Onoda, Toshiyuki; Tanno, Kozo; Ohsawa, Masaki; Sakata, Kiyomi; Omama, Shinichi; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Ishibashi, Yasuhiro; Itai, Kazuyoshi; Kuribayashi, Toru; Okayama, Akira; Nakamura, Motoyuki

    2018-04-06

    The appearance of left ventricular hypertrophy on 12-lead electrocardiography (ECG-LVH) has been clarified to be associated with the risk of incidence of cardiovascular events (CVEs) in hypertensive individuals and the general population, but not enough in non-hypertensive individuals. A total of 4,927 non-hypertensive individuals ≥ 40 years of age who were free of CVE in the general population were followed for the incidence of CVE. ECG-LVH was defined according to criteria of the Sokolow-Lyon (SL) voltage, Cornell voltage (CV), or Cornell voltage product (CP). During the average 9.8 ± 2.0 years of follow-up, 267 individuals (5.4%) had their first CVE. The hazard ratio (HR) for the incidence of CVE after full adjustment by potential confounders significantly increased in the individuals with ECG-LVH by any criteria of the SL voltage, CV, and CP (HR = 1.77, p < 0.001) compared to those with no ECG-LVH. This association was significant also in individuals without any of obesity, dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus or those with systolic BP <120 mmHg and diastolic BP < 80mmHg. Furthermore, ECG-LVH by each criteria provided the reclassification improvement for the CVE risk prediction model by the Framingham 10-year risk score (the net reclassification improvement = 0.17 to 0.22, each p value < 0.010). In the absence of hypertension, ECG-LVH parameters are associated with the increased risk of developed CVEs independent of the established risk factors and provide the additional prognostic value in an assessment of the CVE risk using the traditional risk factors.

  1. Face Recognition Performance Improvement using a Similarity Score of Feature Vectors based on Probabilistic Histograms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SRIKOTE, G.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an improved performance algorithm of face recognition to identify two face mismatch pairs in cases of incorrect decisions. The primary feature of this method is to deploy the similarity score with respect to Gaussian components between two previously unseen faces. Unlike the conventional classical vector distance measurement, our algorithms also consider the plot of summation of the similarity index versus face feature vector distance. A mixture of Gaussian models of labeled faces is also widely applicable to different biometric system parameters. By comparative evaluations, it has been shown that the efficiency of the proposed algorithm is superior to that of the conventional algorithm by an average accuracy of up to 1.15% and 16.87% when compared with 3x3 Multi-Region Histogram (MRH direct-bag-of-features and Principal Component Analysis (PCA-based face recognition systems, respectively. The experimental results show that similarity score consideration is more discriminative for face recognition compared to feature distance. Experimental results of Labeled Face in the Wild (LFW data set demonstrate that our algorithms are suitable for real applications probe-to-gallery identification of face recognition systems. Moreover, this proposed method can also be applied to other recognition systems and therefore additionally improves recognition scores.

  2. An Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy TOPSIS Method Based on an Improved Score Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-yong Bai

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an improved score function for the effective ranking order of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs and an interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy TOPSIS method based on the score function to solve multicriteria decision-making problems in which all the preference information provided by decision-makers is expressed as interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrices where each of the elements is characterized by IVIFS value and the information about criterion weights is known. We apply the proposed score function to calculate the separation measures of each alternative from the positive and negative ideal solutions to determine the relative closeness coefficients. According to the values of the closeness coefficients, the alternatives can be ranked and the most desirable one(s can be selected in the decision-making process. Finally, two illustrative examples for multicriteria fuzzy decision-making problems of alternatives are used as a demonstration of the applications and the effectiveness of the proposed decision-making method.

  3. Countries’ Biomedical Publications and Attraction Scores. A PubMed-based assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Qinyi; Boggio, Andrea; Ballabeni, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Studying publication volumes at the country level is key to understanding and improving a country’s research system. PubMed is a public search engine of publications in all life sciences areas. Here, we show how this search engine can be used to assess the outputs of life science-related research by country. We have measured the numbers of publications during different time periods based on the country of affiliation of the first authors. Moreover, we have designed scores, which we have named Attraction Scores, to appraise the relative focus either toward particular types of studies, such as clinical trials or reviews, or toward specific research areas, such as public health and pharmacogenomics, or toward specific topics, for instance embryonic stem cells; we have also investigated a possible use of these Attraction Scores in connection with regulatory policies. We have weighed the statistics against general indicators such as country populations and gross domestic products (GDP). During the 5-year period 2008-2012, the United States was the country with the highest number of publications and Denmark the one with the highest number of publications per capita. Among the 40 countries with the highest GDPs, Israel had the highest publications-to-GDP ratio. Among the 20 countries with the most publications, Japan had the highest Attraction Score for induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells and Italy the highest proportion of review publications. More than 50% of publications in English were from countries in which English is not the primary language. We show an assorted and extensive collection of rankings and charts that will inform scholars and policymakers in studying and improving the research systems both at the national and international level. PMID:26401263

  4. Methods of Implementation of Evidence-Based Stroke Care in Europe: European Implementation Score Collaboration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Carlo, Antonio; Pezzella, Francesca Romana; Fraser, Alec; Bovis, Francesca; Baeza, Juan; McKevitt, Chris; Boaz, Annette; Heuschmann, Peter; Wolfe, Charles D A; Inzitari, Domenico

    2015-08-01

    Differences in stroke care and outcomes reported in Europe may reflect different degrees of implementation of evidence-based interventions. We evaluated strategies for implementing research evidence into stroke care in 10 European countries. A questionnaire was developed and administered through face-to-face interviews with key informants. Implementation strategies were investigated considering 3 levels (macro, meso, and micro, eg, policy, organization, patients/professionals) identified by the framing analysis, and different settings (primary, hospital, and specialist) of stroke care. Similarities and differences among countries were evaluated using the categorical principal components analysis. Implementation methods reported by ≥7 countries included nonmandatory policies, public financial incentives, continuing professional education, distribution of educational material, educational meetings and campaigns, guidelines, opinion leaders', and stroke patients associations' activities. Audits were present in 6 countries at national level; national and regional regulations in 4 countries. Private financial incentives, reminders, and educational outreach visits were reported only in 2 countries. At national level, the first principal component of categorical principal components analysis separated England, France, Scotland, and Sweden, all with positive object scores, from the other countries. Belgium and Lithuania obtained the lowest scores. At regional level, England, France, Germany, Italy, and Sweden had positive scores in the first principal component, whereas Belgium, Lithuania, Poland, and Scotland showed negative scores. Spain was in an intermediate position. We developed a novel method to assess different domains of implementation in stroke care. Clear variations were observed among European countries. The new tool may be used elsewhere for future contributions. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  5. Development and Validation of a New Prognostic System for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Farinati

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Prognostic assessment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC remains controversial. Using the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA database as a training set, we sought to develop and validate a new prognostic system for patients with HCC.Prospective collected databases from Italy (training cohort, n = 3,628; internal validation cohort, n = 1,555 and Taiwan (external validation cohort, n = 2,651 were used to develop the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system. We first defined ITA.LI.CA stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, C using only tumor characteristics (largest tumor diameter, number of nodules, intra- and extrahepatic macroscopic vascular invasion, extrahepatic metastases. A parametric multivariable survival model was then used to calculate the relative prognostic value of ITA.LI.CA tumor stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG performance status, Child-Pugh score (CPS, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP in predicting individual survival. Based on the model results, an ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score (from 0 to 13 points was constructed, and its prognostic power compared with that of other integrated systems (BCLC, HKLC, MESIAH, CLIP, JIS. Median follow-up was 58 mo for Italian patients (interquartile range, 26-106 mo and 39 mo for Taiwanese patients (interquartile range, 12-61 mo. The ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score showed optimal discrimination and calibration abilities in Italian patients. Observed median survival in the training and internal validation sets was 57 and 61 mo, respectively, in quartile 1 (ITA.LI.CA score ≤ 1, 43 and 38 mo in quartile 2 (ITA.LI.CA score 2-3, 23 and 23 mo in quartile 3 (ITA.LI.CA score 4-5, and 9 and 8 mo in quartile 4 (ITA.LI.CA score > 5. Observed and predicted median survival in the training and internal validation sets largely coincided. Although observed and predicted survival estimations were significantly lower (log-rank test, p < 0.001 in Italian than in Taiwanese patients, the ITA.LI.CA score maintained

  6. Two-step calibration method for multi-algorithm score-based face recognition systems by minimizing discrimination loss

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Susyanto, N.; Veldhuis, R.N.J.; Spreeuwers, L.J.; Klaassen, C.A.J.; Fierrez, J.; Li, S.Z.; Ross, A.; Veldhuis, R.; Alonso-Fernandez, F.; Bigun, J.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new method for combining multi-algorithm score-based face recognition systems, which we call the two-step calibration method. Typically, algorithms for face recognition systems produce dependent scores. The two-step method is based on parametric copulas to handle this dependence. Its

  7. Scoring in genetically modified organism proficiency tests based on log-transformed results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Michael; Ellison, Stephen L R; Owen, Linda; Mathieson, Kenneth; Powell, Joanne; Key, Pauline; Wood, Roger; Damant, Andrew P

    2006-01-01

    The study considers data from 2 UK-based proficiency schemes and includes data from a total of 29 rounds and 43 test materials over a period of 3 years. The results from the 2 schemes are similar and reinforce each other. The amplification process used in quantitative polymerase chain reaction determinations predicts a mixture of normal, binomial, and lognormal distributions dominated by the latter 2. As predicted, the study results consistently follow a positively skewed distribution. Log-transformation prior to calculating z-scores is effective in establishing near-symmetric distributions that are sufficiently close to normal to justify interpretation on the basis of the normal distribution.

  8. Development and Reliability of the OMERACT Thumb Base Osteoarthritis Magnetic Resonance Imaging Scoring System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kroon, Féline P B; Conaghan, Philip G; Foltz, Violaine

    2017-01-01

    : The TOMS assessed the first carpometacarpal (CMC-1) and scaphotrapeziotrapezoid (STT) joints for synovitis, subchondral bone defects (including erosions, cysts, and bone attrition), osteophytes, cartilage, and bone marrow lesions on a 0-3 scale (normal to severe). Subluxation was evaluated only in the CMC......, with better performance for subchondral bone defects, subluxation, and bone marrow lesions. CONCLUSION: A thumb base OA MRI scoring system has been developed. The OMERACT TOMS demonstrated good intrareader and interreader reliability. Longitudinal studies are warranted to investigate reliability of change...

  9. A novel ultrasound-based vascular calcification score (CALCS) to detect subclinical atherosclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flore, R; Zocco, M A; Ainora, M E; Fonnesu, C; Nesci, A; Gasbarrini, A; Ponziani, F R

    2018-02-01

    To quantify non-coronary vascular calcifications (VC) in asymptomatic patients at low-intermediate cardiovascular risk by a new color Doppler ultrasound (DUS)-based score (the carotid, aortic, lower limbs calcium score, CALCs), and to correlate this score with classical parameters associated with cardiovascular risk [carotid intima media thickness (IMT), and arterial stiffness (AS)]. All consecutive asymptomatic patients who underwent a screening DUS of non-coronary circulation were evaluated and patients at low-intermediate cardiovascular risk were selected according to Framingham risk score (FRS). Among them, we enrolled 70 patients with US evidence of VC and 71 age, sex and FRS matched controls. The presence of VC was correlated with classical markers of cardiovascular risk, such as AS and intima-media thickness (IMT). AS, expressed as pulse wave velocity (PWV) and arterial distensibility, carotid IMT and CALCs were measured for both groups. AS and c-IMT were assessed by a new Radio-Frequency (RF) DUS-based method. CALCs was generated by our previously described B-mode DUS-based method according to number/size of VC in 11 non-coronary segments (range 0-33). Patients with VC presented higher AS and IMT values than controls (PWV 8.34±0.98 m/s vs. 6.74±0.68 m/s, p<0.0001; arterial distensibility 267±12 mm vs. 315±65 mm, p=0.001; IMT 687±132 mm vs. 572±91 mm, p<0.0001). Mean CALCs of patients with VC was 8.41±7.78. CALCs were significantly correlated with c-IMT (p<0.0001; r=0.3), PWV (p<0.0001; r=0.4) and arterial distensibility (p=0.002; r=-0.1). DUS-based CALCs is highly correlated with other validated markers of subclinical atherosclerosis, such as c-IMT and AS. Our results demonstrated the ability of CALCs to identify individual predictive factors beyond the traditional risk factors by quantifying an interesting and novel step of the atherogenic process. Future studies on larger series and with adequate follow up are necessary to confirm these results and

  10. The strong prognostic value of KELIM, a model-based parameter from CA 125 kinetics in ovarian cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Benoit; Colomban, Olivier; Heywood, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Unexpected results were recently reported about the poor surrogacy of Gynecologic Cancer Intergroup (GCIG) defined CA-125 response in recurrent ovarian cancer (ROC) patients. Mathematical modeling may help describe CA-125 decline dynamically and discriminate prognostic kinetic parameters....

  11. Non-laboratory-based self-assessment screening score for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: development, validation and comparison with other scores.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong-ho Lee

    Full Text Available Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD is a prevalent and rapidly increasing disease worldwide; however, no widely accepted screening models to assess the risk of NAFLD are available. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate a self-assessment score for NAFLD in the general population using two independent cohorts.The development cohort comprised 15676 subjects (8313 males and 7363 females who visited the National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital in Korea in 2008-2010. Anthropometric, clinical, and laboratory data were examined during regular health check-ups and fatty liver diagnosed by abdominal ultrasound. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine predictors of prevalent NAFLD and to derive risk scores/models. We validated our models and compared them with other existing methods using an external cohort (N = 66868.The simple self-assessment score consists of age, sex, waist circumference, body mass index, history of diabetes and dyslipidemia, alcohol intake, physical activity and menopause status, which are independently associated with NAFLD, and has a value of 0-15. A cut-off point of ≥ 8 defined 58% of males and 36% of females as being at high-risk of NAFLD, and yielded a sensitivity of 80% in men (77% in women, a specificity of 67% (81%, a positive predictive value of 72% (63%, a negative predictive value of 76% (89% and an AUC of 0.82 (0.88. Comparable results were obtained using the validation dataset. The comprehensive NAFLD score, which includes additional laboratory parameters, has enhanced discrimination ability, with an AUC of 0.86 for males and 0.91 for females. Both simple and comprehensive NAFLD scores were significantly increased in subjects with higher fatty liver grades or severity of liver conditions (e.g., simple steatosis, steatohepatitis.The new non-laboratory-based self-assessment score may be useful for identifying individuals at high-risk of NAFLD. Further studies are warranted to evaluate

  12. Radiation therapy for chordoma and chondrosarcoma of the skull base and the cervical spine. Prognostic factors and patterns of failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noel, G.; Jauffret, E.; Mammar, H.; Ferrand, R.; Habrand, J.L.; Crevoisier, R. de; Haie-Meder, C.; Beaudre, A.; Dederke, S.; Hasboun, D.; Boisserie, G.; Pontvert, D.; Gaboriaud, G.; Guedea, F.; Petriz, L.; Mazeron, J.J.

    2003-01-01

    Background: Prospective analysis of local tumor control, survival and treatment complications in 67 consecutive patients treated with fractionated photon and proton radiation for chordoma or chondrosarcoma of the base of the skull and the cervical spine. Patients and Methods: Between December 1995 and January 2000, 67 patients with a median age of 52 years (range: 14-85 years), were treated at the Centre de Protontherapie d'Orsay (CPO), France, using the 201-MeV proton beam, 49 for chordoma and 18 for chondrosarcoma. Irradiation combined high-energy photons and protons. Photons represented two thirds of the total dose and protons one third. The median total dose delivered within gross tumor volume (GTV) was 67 cobalt gray equivalents (CGE; range: 60-70 CGE). Results: Within a median follow-up of 29 months (range: 4-71 months), the 3-year local control rates were 71% and 85% for chordomas and chondrosarcomas, respectively, and the 3-year overall survival rates 88% and 75%, respectively. 14 tumors (21.5%) failed locally (eight within the GTV, four within the clinical target volume [CTV], and two without further assessment). Seven patients died from their tumor and another one from a nonrelated condition (pulmonary embolism). The maximum tumor diameter and, similarly, the GTV were larger in relapsing patients, compared with the rest of the population: 56 mm vs 44 mm (p = 0.024) and 50 ml vs 22 ml (p = 0.0083), respectively. In univariate analysis, age ≤ 52 years at the time of radiotherapy (p = 0.002), maximum diameter < 45 mm (p = 0.02), and GTV < 28 ml (p = 0.02) impacted positively on local control. On multivariate analysis, only age was an independent prognostic factor of local control. Conclusion: In chordomas and chondrosarcomas of the skull base and cervical spine, combined photon and proton radiation therapy offers excellent chances of cure. In two thirds of the cases, relapses are located in the GTV. Maximum diameter, GTV, and age are prognostic indicators

  13. Differential evolution-based multi-objective optimization for the definition of a health indicator for fault diagnostics and prognostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baraldi, P.; Bonfanti, G.; Zio, E.

    2018-03-01

    The identification of the current degradation state of an industrial component and the prediction of its future evolution is a fundamental step for the development of condition-based and predictive maintenance approaches. The objective of the present work is to propose a general method for extracting a health indicator to measure the amount of component degradation from a set of signals measured during operation. The proposed method is based on the combined use of feature extraction techniques, such as Empirical Mode Decomposition and Auto-Associative Kernel Regression, and a multi-objective Binary Differential Evolution (BDE) algorithm for selecting the subset of features optimal for the definition of the health indicator. The objectives of the optimization are desired characteristics of the health indicator, such as monotonicity, trendability and prognosability. A case study is considered, concerning the prediction of the remaining useful life of turbofan engines. The obtained results confirm that the method is capable of extracting health indicators suitable for accurate prognostics.

  14. Neutrosophic Similarity Score Based Weighted Histogram for Robust Mean-Shift Tracking

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    Keli Hu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Visual object tracking is a critical task in computer vision. Challenging things always exist when an object needs to be tracked. For instance, background clutter is one of the most challenging problems. The mean-shift tracker is quite popular because of its efficiency and performance in a range of conditions. However, the challenge of background clutter also disturbs its performance. In this article, we propose a novel weighted histogram based on neutrosophic similarity score to help the mean-shift tracker discriminate the target from the background. Neutrosophic set (NS is a new branch of philosophy for dealing with incomplete, indeterminate, and inconsistent information. In this paper, we utilize the single valued neutrosophic set (SVNS, which is a subclass of NS to improve the mean-shift tracker. First, two kinds of criteria are considered as the object feature similarity and the background feature similarity, and each bin of the weight histogram is represented in the SVNS domain via three membership functions T(Truth, I(indeterminacy, and F(Falsity. Second, the neutrosophic similarity score function is introduced to fuse those two criteria and to build the final weight histogram. Finally, a novel neutrosophic weighted mean-shift tracker is proposed. The proposed tracker is compared with several mean-shift based trackers on a dataset of 61 public sequences. The results revealed that our method outperforms other trackers, especially when confronting background clutter.

  15. Distinct distribution and prognostic significance of molecular subtypes of breast cancer in Chinese women: a population-based cohort study

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    Cai Qiuyin

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Molecular classification of breast cancer is an important prognostic factor. The distribution of molecular subtypes of breast cancer and their prognostic value has not been well documented in Asians. Methods A total of 2,791 breast cancer patients recruited for a population-based cohort study were evaluated for molecular subtypes of breast cancer by immunohistochemical assays. Data on clinicopathological characteristics were confirmed by centralized pathology review. The average follow-up of the patients was 53.4 months. Overall and disease-free survival by molecular subtypes of breast cancer were evaluated. Results The prevalence of the luminal A, luminal B, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2, and triple-negative subtypes were 48.6%, 16.7%, 13.7%, and 12.9%, respectively. The luminal A subtype was more likely to be diagnosed in older women (P = 0.03 and had a stronger correlation with favorable clinicopathological factors (smaller tumor size, lower histologic grade, and earlier TNM stage than the triple-negative or HER2 subtypes. Women with triple-negative breast cancer had a higher frequency of family history of breast cancer than women with other subtypes (P = 0.048. The 5-year overall/disease-free survival percentages for the luminal A, luminal B, HER2, and triple-negative subtypes were 92.9%/88.6%, 88.6%/85.1%, 83.2%/79.1%, and 80.7%/76.0%, respectively. A similar pattern was observed in multivariate analyses. Immunotherapy was associated with improved overall and disease-free survival for luminal A breast cancer, but reduced disease-free survival (HR = 2.21, 95% CI, 1.09-4.48 for the HER2 subtype of breast cancer. Conclusions The triple-negative and HER2 subtypes were associated with poorer outcomes compared with the luminal A subtype among these Chinese women. The HER2 subtype was more prevalent in this Chinese population compared with Western populations, suggesting the importance of standardized HER2

  16. PROGNOSTIC FACTORS FOR PRIMARY CENTRAL NERVOUS SYSTEM LYMPHOMAS TREATED WITH HIGH-DOSE METHOTREXATE-BASED CHEMO-RADIOTHERAPY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagane, Motoo; Lee, Jeunghun; Shishido-Hara, Yukiko; Suzuki, Kaori; Shimizu, Saki; Umino, Michiru; Kobayashi, Keiichi; Shiokawa, Yoshiaki

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Chemotherapy with high-dose methotrexate (HD-MTX) followed by whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) is a conventional approach to treat primary central nervous system lymphomas (PCNSL), but some tumors relapse early leading to unfavorable outcome. Several biomarkers have been identified as prognostic factors in PCNSL, however, the correlation of both clinical factors including those related to MTX metabolism and B-cell differentiation and oncogenic biomarkers with response to and outcome by therapy is yet unclear. METHODS: We investigated 32 immunocompetent patients (19 males, 13 females) with PCNSL (all diffuse large B-cell type) treated with HD-MTX based therapy with or without WBRT since 2000 in our institution. Paraffin-embedded formalin-fixed tumor tissue sections were stained immunohistochemically with antibodies against following factors: B-cell differentiation markers (CD10, Bcl-6, Mum-1, CD138); MTX metabolism-related (MRP family, LRP, DHFR); cell cycle-related (p27KIP1, MIB-1); drug resistance-related (MGMT, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, PMS2); and oncogenes (Myc, Bcl-2). Correlation between positivity of these factors and clinical outcomes were evaluated using logrank test and cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Among these factors, complete response to HD-MTX was significantly associated with longer progression-free survival (PFS)(P = 0.0012), while Bcl-6 expression as well as histological subtype (non-germinal center B-cell, non-GCB) was closely correlated with shorter PFS. Age (>60) (P = 0.006) and MSH2 expression (P = 0.017) were found to be better predictor for overall survival (OS), but in multivariate analysis, they were no longer significant. Other factors involved in MTX metabolism, DNA repair enzymes, and oncogenes did not affect outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Non-GCB subtype and Bcl-6 expression may be associated with worse outcome in patients with PCNSL treated with HD-MTX, while MTX-metabolism related factors did not influence prognosis. Further

  17. Effects of Internet and Smartphone Addictions on Depression and Anxiety Based on Propensity Score Matching Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yeon-Jin; Jang, Hye Min; Lee, Youngjo; Lee, Donghwan; Kim, Dai-Jin

    2018-04-25

    The associations of Internet addiction (IA) and smartphone addiction (SA) with mental health problems have been widely studied. We investigated the effects of IA and SA on depression and anxiety while adjusting for sociodemographic variables. In this study, 4854 participants completed a cross-sectional web-based survey including socio-demographic items, the Korean Scale for Internet Addiction, the Smartphone Addiction Proneness Scale, and the subscales of the Symptom Checklist 90 Items-Revised. The participants were classified into IA, SA, and normal use (NU) groups. To reduce sampling bias, we applied the propensity score matching method based on genetics matching. The IA group showed an increased risk of depression (relative risk 1.207; p smartphone use.

  18. Prognostic Value of Volume-Based {sup 18}F-Fluorodeoxyglucose PET/CT Parameters in Patients with Clinically Node-Negative Oral Tongue Squamous Cell Carcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Su Jin [Dept. of Nuclear Medicine, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Joon Young; Lee, Hwan Joo; Hyun, Seung Hyup; Moon, Seung Hwan; Kim, Byung Tae [Dept. of Nuclear Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Baek, Chung Hwan; Son, Young Ik [Dept. of Otorhinolaryngology, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-11-15

    To evaluate the prognostic value of volume-based metabolic parameters measured with {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose ({sup 18}F-FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in patients with clinically node-negative (cN0) oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (OTSCC) as compared with other prognostic factors. In this study, we included a total of 57 patients who had been diagnosed with cN0 tongue cancer by radiologic, ({sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT, and physical examinations. The maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), average SUV (SUVavg), metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) for primary tumors were measured with ({sup 18}F-FDG PET. The prognostic significances of these parameters and other clinical variables were assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. In the univariate analysis, pathological node (pN) stage, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, SUVmax, SUVavg, MTV, and TLG were significant predictors for survival. On a multivariate analysis, pN stage (hazard ratio = 10.555, p = 0.049), AJCC stage (hazard ratio = 13.220, p = 0.045), and MTV (hazard ratio = 2.698, p 0.033) were significant prognostic factors in cN0 OTSCC patients. The patients with MTV {>=} 7.78 cm{sup 3} showed a worse prognosis than those with MTV < 7.78 cm{sup 3} (p = 0.037). The MTV of primary tumor as a volumetric parameter of ({sup 18}F-FDG PET, in addition to pN stage and AJCC stage, is an independent prognostic factor for survival in cN0 OTSCC.

  19. MRI-detected skull-base invasion. Prognostic value and therapeutic implication in intensity-modulated radiotherapy treatment for nasopharyngeal carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Yi-Kan; Jiang, Ning; Yue, Dan; Tang, Ling-Long; Zhang, Fan; Lin, Li; Liu, Xu; Chen, Lei; Ma, Jun; Liu, Li-Zhi

    2014-01-01

    With advances in imaging and radiotherapy, the prognostic value of skull-base invasion in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) needs to be reassessed. We aimed to define a classification system and evaluate the prognostic value of the classification of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-detected skull-base invasion in NPC treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). We retrospectively reviewed 749 patients who underwent MRI and were subsequently histologically diagnosed with nondisseminated NPC and treated with IMRT. MRI-detected skull-base invasion was not found to be an independent prognostic factor for overall survival (OS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), local relapse-free survival (LRFS), or disease-free survival (DFS; p > 0.05 for all). Skull-base invasion was classified according to the incidence of each site (type I sites inside pharyngobasilar fascia and clivus vs. type II sites outside pharyngobasilar fascia). The 5-year OS, DMFS, LRFS, and DFS rates in the classification of skull-base invasion in NPC were 83 vs. 67 %, 85 vs.75 %, 95 vs. 88 %, and 76 vs. 62 %, respectively (p [de

  20. A powerful score-based test statistic for detecting gene-gene co-association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jing; Yuan, Zhongshang; Ji, Jiadong; Zhang, Xiaoshuai; Li, Hongkai; Wu, Xuesen; Xue, Fuzhong; Liu, Yanxun

    2016-01-29

    The genetic variants identified by Genome-wide association study (GWAS) can only account for a small proportion of the total heritability for complex disease. The existence of gene-gene joint effects which contains the main effects and their co-association is one of the possible explanations for the "missing heritability" problems. Gene-gene co-association refers to the extent to which the joint effects of two genes differ from the main effects, not only due to the traditional interaction under nearly independent condition but the correlation between genes. Generally, genes tend to work collaboratively within specific pathway or network contributing to the disease and the specific disease-associated locus will often be highly correlated (e.g. single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in linkage disequilibrium). Therefore, we proposed a novel score-based statistic (SBS) as a gene-based method for detecting gene-gene co-association. Various simulations illustrate that, under different sample sizes, marginal effects of causal SNPs and co-association levels, the proposed SBS has the better performance than other existed methods including single SNP-based and principle component analysis (PCA)-based logistic regression model, the statistics based on canonical correlations (CCU), kernel canonical correlation analysis (KCCU), partial least squares path modeling (PLSPM) and delta-square (δ (2)) statistic. The real data analysis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) further confirmed its advantages in practice. SBS is a powerful and efficient gene-based method for detecting gene-gene co-association.

  1. Scoring relevancy of features based on combinatorial analysis of Lasso with application to lymphoma diagnosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zare Habil

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract One challenge in applying bioinformatic tools to clinical or biological data is high number of features that might be provided to the learning algorithm without any prior knowledge on which ones should be used. In such applications, the number of features can drastically exceed the number of training instances which is often limited by the number of available samples for the study. The Lasso is one of many regularization methods that have been developed to prevent overfitting and improve prediction performance in high-dimensional settings. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm for feature selection based on the Lasso and our hypothesis is that defining a scoring scheme that measures the "quality" of each feature can provide a more robust feature selection method. Our approach is to generate several samples from the training data by bootstrapping, determine the best relevance-ordering of the features for each sample, and finally combine these relevance-orderings to select highly relevant features. In addition to the theoretical analysis of our feature scoring scheme, we provided empirical evaluations on six real datasets from different fields to confirm the superiority of our method in exploratory data analysis and prediction performance. For example, we applied FeaLect, our feature scoring algorithm, to a lymphoma dataset, and according to a human expert, our method led to selecting more meaningful features than those commonly used in the clinics. This case study built a basis for discovering interesting new criteria for lymphoma diagnosis. Furthermore, to facilitate the use of our algorithm in other applications, the source code that implements our algorithm was released as FeaLect, a documented R package in CRAN.

  2. Communicating efficacy information based on composite scores in direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela A; O'Donoghue, Amie C; Sullivan, Helen W; Willoughby, Jessica Fitts; Squire, Claudia; Parvanta, Sarah; Betts, Kevin R

    2016-04-01

    Drug efficacy can be measured by composite scores, which consist of two or more symptoms or other clinical components of a disease. We evaluated how individuals interpret composite scores in direct-to-consumer (DTC) prescription drug advertising. We conducted an experimental study of seasonal allergy sufferers (n=1967) who viewed a fictitious print DTC ad that varied by the type of information featured (general indication, list of symptoms, or definition of composite scores) and the presence or absence of an educational intervention about composite scores. We measured composite score recognition and comprehension, and perceived drug efficacy and risk. Ads that featured either (1) the composite score definition alone or (2) the list of symptoms or general indication information along with the educational intervention improved composite score comprehension. Ads that included the composite score definition or the educational intervention led to lower confidence in the drug's benefits. The composite score definition improved composite score recognition and lowered drug risk perceptions. Adding composite score information to DTC print ads may improve individuals' comprehension of composite scores and affect their perceptions of the drug. Providing composite score information may lead to more informed patient-provider prescription drug decisions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Learning material recommendation based on case-based reasoning similarity scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masood, Mona; Mokmin, Nur Azlina Mohamed

    2017-10-01

    A personalized learning material recommendation is important in any Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS). Case-based Reasoning (CBR) is an Artificial Intelligent Algorithm that has been widely used in the development of ITS applications. This study has developed an ITS application that applied the CBR algorithm in the development process. The application has the ability to recommend the most suitable learning material to the specific student based on information in the student profile. In order to test the ability of the application in recommending learning material, two versions of the application were created. The first version displayed the most suitable learning material and the second version displayed the least preferable learning material. The results show the application has successfully assigned the students to the most suitable learning material.

  4. A prognostic model of triple-negative breast cancer based on miR-27b-3p and node status.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Songjie Shen

    Full Text Available Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC is an aggressive but heterogeneous subtype of breast cancer. This study aimed to identify and validate a prognostic signature for TNBC patients to improve prognostic capability and to guide individualized treatment.We retrospectively analyzed the prognostic performance of clinicopathological characteristics and miRNAs in a training set of 58 patients with invasive ductal TNBC diagnosed between 2002 and 2012. A prediction model was developed based on independent clinicopathological and miRNA covariates. The prognostic value of the model was further validated in a separate set of 41 TNBC patients diagnosed between 2007 and 2008.Only lymph node status was marginally significantly associated with poor prognosis of TNBC (P = 0.054, whereas other clinicopathological factors, including age, tumor size, histological grade, lymphovascular invasion, P53 status, Ki-67 index, and type of surgery, were not. The expression levels of miR-27b-3p, miR-107, and miR-103a-3p were significantly elevated in the metastatic group compared with the disease-free group (P value: 0.008, 0.005, and 0.050, respectively. The Cox proportional hazards regression analysis revealed that lymph node status and miR-27b-3p were independent predictors of poor prognosis (P value: 0.012 and 0.027, respectively. A logistic regression model was developed based on these two independent covariates, and the prognostic value of the model was subsequently confirmed in a separate validation set. The two different risk groups, which were stratified according to the model, showed significant differences in the rates of distant metastasis and breast cancer-related death not only in the training set (P value: 0.001 and 0.040, respectively but also in the validation set (P value: 0.013 and 0.012, respectively.This model based on miRNA and node status covariates may be used to stratify TNBC patients into different prognostic subgroups for potentially

  5. Team-based learning on a third-year pediatric clerkship improves NBME subject exam blood disorder scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kris Saudek

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: At our institution, speculation amongst medical students and faculty exists as to whether team-based learning (TBL can improve scores on high-stakes examinations over traditional didactic lectures. Faculty with experience using TBL developed and piloted a required TBL blood disorders (BD module for third-year medical students on their pediatric clerkship. The purpose of this study is to analyze the BD scores from the NBME subject exams before and after the introduction of the module. Methods: We analyzed institutional and national item difficulties for BD items from the NBME pediatrics content area item analysis reports from 2011 to 2014 before (pre and after (post the pilot (October 2012. Total scores of 590 NBME subject examination students from examinee performance profiles were analyzed pre/post. t-Tests and Cohen's d effect sizes were used to analyze item difficulties for institutional versus national scores and pre/post comparisons of item difficulties and total scores. Results: BD scores for our institution were 0.65 (±0.19 compared to 0.62 (±0.15 nationally (P=0.346; Cohen's d=0.15. The average of post-consecutive BD scores for our students was 0.70(±0.21 compared to examinees nationally [0.64 (±0.15] with a significant mean difference (P=0.031; Cohen's d=0.43. The difference in our institutions pre [0.65 (±0.19] and post [0.70 (±0.21] BD scores trended higher (P=0.391; Cohen's d=0.27. Institutional BD scores were higher than national BD scores for both pre and post, with an effect size that tripled from pre to post scores. Institutional BD scores increased after the use of the TBL module, while overall exam scores remained steadily above national norms. Conclusions: Institutional BD scores were higher than national BD scores for both pre and post, with an effect size that tripled from pre to post scores. Institutional BD scores increased after the use of the TBL module, while overall exam scores remained steadily above

  6. A Network-Based Data Envelope Analysis Model in a Dynamic Balanced Score Card

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojtaba Akbarian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Performance assessment during the time and along with strategies is the most important requirements of top managers. To assess the performance, a balanced score card (BSC along with strategic goals and a data envelopment analysis (DEA are used as powerful qualitative and quantitative tools, respectively. By integrating these two models, their strengths are used and their weaknesses are removed. In this paper, an integrated framework of the BSC and DEA models is proposed for measuring the efficiency during the time and along with strategies based on the time delay of the lag key performance indicators (KPIs of the BSC model. The causal relationships during the time among perspectives of the BSC model are drawn as dynamic BSC at first. Then, after identifying the network-DEA structure, a new objective function for measuring the efficiency of nine subsidiary refineries of the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC during the time and along with strategies is developed.

  7. A robust background regression based score estimation algorithm for hyperspectral anomaly detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Rui; Du, Bo; Zhang, Liangpei; Zhang, Lefei

    2016-12-01

    Anomaly detection has become a hot topic in the hyperspectral image analysis and processing fields in recent years. The most important issue for hyperspectral anomaly detection is the background estimation and suppression. Unreasonable or non-robust background estimation usually leads to unsatisfactory anomaly detection results. Furthermore, the inherent nonlinearity of hyperspectral images may cover up the intrinsic data structure in the anomaly detection. In order to implement robust background estimation, as well as to explore the intrinsic data structure of the hyperspectral image, we propose a robust background regression based score estimation algorithm (RBRSE) for hyperspectral anomaly detection. The Robust Background Regression (RBR) is actually a label assignment procedure which segments the hyperspectral data into a robust background dataset and a potential anomaly dataset with an intersection boundary. In the RBR, a kernel expansion technique, which explores the nonlinear structure of the hyperspectral data in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, is utilized to formulate the data as a density feature representation. A minimum squared loss relationship is constructed between the data density feature and the corresponding assigned labels of the hyperspectral data, to formulate the foundation of the regression. Furthermore, a manifold regularization term which explores the manifold smoothness of the hyperspectral data, and a maximization term of the robust background average density, which suppresses the bias caused by the potential anomalies, are jointly appended in the RBR procedure. After this, a paired-dataset based k-nn score estimation method is undertaken on the robust background and potential anomaly datasets, to implement the detection output. The experimental results show that RBRSE achieves superior ROC curves, AUC values, and background-anomaly separation than some of the other state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods, and is easy to implement

  8. A state-space-based prognostics model for lithium-ion battery degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Xin; Chen, Nan

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes to analyze the degradation of lithium-ion batteries with the sequentially observed discharging profiles. A general state-space model is developed in which the observation model is used to approximate the discharging profile of each cycle, the corresponding parameter vector is treated as the hidden state, and the state-transition model is used to track the evolution of the parameter vector as the battery ages. The EM and EKF algorithms are adopted to estimate and update the model parameters and states jointly. Based on this model, we construct prediction on the end of discharge times for unobserved cycles and the remaining useful cycles before the battery failure. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated using a real lithium-ion battery degradation data set. - Highlights: • Unifying model for Li-Ion battery SOC and SOH estimation. • Extended Kalman filter based efficient inference algorithm. • Using voltage curves in discharging to have wide validity.

  9. Technology of prognostication of sporting achievements of badminton players on the stage of preliminary base preparation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shyyan V.N.

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In the article the technology of evaluation of potential capabilities of badminton players is displayed 12-14 years. The functional, pedagogical and psychophysiological criteria which became a component parts of the developed analytical models of sportsmen-badminton players are explored. The criterion for the quantitative estimation of perspective is offered, which allows on the 9-ti point scale to estimate perspective of badminton players on the stage of preliminary base preparation.

  10. Desempenho de seis modelos de predição prognóstica em pacientes críticos que receberam suporte renal extracorpóreo Performance of six prognostic scores in critically ILL patients receiving renal replacement therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth R. Maccariello

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available JUSTIFICATIVA E OBJETIVOS: Não existe consenso sobre qual modelo prognóstico deva ser utilizado em pacientes com disfunção renal aguda (DRA. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o desempenho de seis escores de prognóstico em pacientes que necessitaram de suporte renal. MÉTODO: Coorte prospectiva de pacientes internados nas unidades de terapia intensiva (UTI de três hospitais terciários que necessitaram de suporte renal por DRA durante 32 meses. Foram excluídos os pacientes crônicos em programa de diálise ou com BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: There is no consensus about prognostic scores for use in patients with acute kidney injury (AKI. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of six prognostic scores in predicting hospital mortality in patients with AKI and need for renal replacement therapy (RRT. METHODS: Prospective cohort of patients admitted to the intensive care units (ICU of three tertiary care hospitals that required RRT for AKI over a 32-month period. Patients with end-stage renal disease and those with ICU stay < 24h were excluded. Data from the first 24h of ICU admission were used to calculate SAPS II and APACHE II scores, and data from the first 24h of RRT were used in the calculation of LOD, ODIN, Liaño and Mehta scores. Discrimination was evaluated using the area under ROC curve (AUROC and calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The hospital mortality was the end-point of interest. RESULTS: 467 patients were evaluated. Hospital mortality rate was 75%. Mean SAPS II and APACHE II scores were 48.5 ±11.2 and 27.4 ± 6.3 points, and median LOD score was 7 (5-8 points. Except for Mehta score (p = 0.001, calibration was appropriate in all models. However, discrimination was uniformly unsatisfactory; AUROC ranged from 0.60 for ODIN to 0.72 for SAPS II and Mehta scores. In addition, except for Mehta, all models tended to underestimate hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Organ dysfunction, general and

  11. Poisson Approximation-Based Score Test for Detecting Association of Rare Variants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Hongyan; Zhang, Hong; Yang, Yaning

    2016-07-01

    Genome-wide association study (GWAS) has achieved great success in identifying genetic variants, but the nature of GWAS has determined its inherent limitations. Under the common disease rare variants (CDRV) hypothesis, the traditional association analysis methods commonly used in GWAS for common variants do not have enough power for detecting rare variants with a limited sample size. As a solution to this problem, pooling rare variants by their functions provides an efficient way for identifying susceptible genes. Rare variant typically have low frequencies of minor alleles, and the distribution of the total number of minor alleles of the rare variants can be approximated by a Poisson distribution. Based on this fact, we propose a new test method, the Poisson Approximation-based Score Test (PAST), for association analysis of rare variants. Two testing methods, namely, ePAST and mPAST, are proposed based on different strategies of pooling rare variants. Simulation results and application to the CRESCENDO cohort data show that our methods are more powerful than the existing methods. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/University College London.

  12. Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine; Mahabadi, Amir Abbas; Koenig, Wolfgang

    2016-01-01

    The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994-1995) and S4 (1999-2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000-2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany.

  13. Product quality management based on CNC machine fault prognostics and diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, A. M.; Al-jonid, Kh M.; Kozlov, A. A.; Antar, Sh D.

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents a new fault classification model and an integrated approach to fault diagnosis which involves the combination of ideas of Neuro-fuzzy Networks (NF), Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) and Particle Filtering (PF) algorithm on a single platform. In the new model, faults are categorized in two aspects, namely first and second degree faults. First degree faults are instantaneous in nature, and second degree faults are evolutional and appear as a developing phenomenon which starts from the initial stage, goes through the development stage and finally ends at the mature stage. These categories of faults have a lifetime which is inversely proportional to a machine tool's life according to the modified version of Taylor’s equation. For fault diagnosis, this framework consists of two phases: the first one is focusing on fault prognosis, which is done online, and the second one is concerned with fault diagnosis which depends on both off-line and on-line modules. In the first phase, a neuro-fuzzy predictor is used to take a decision on whether to embark Conditional Based Maintenance (CBM) or fault diagnosis based on the severity of a fault. The second phase only comes into action when an evolving fault goes beyond a critical threshold limit called a CBM limit for a command to be issued for fault diagnosis. During this phase, DBN and PF techniques are used as an intelligent fault diagnosis system to determine the severity, time and location of the fault. The feasibility of this approach was tested in a simulation environment using the CNC machine as a case study and the results were studied and analyzed.

  14. Survival in pediatric medulloblastoma: a population-based observational study to improve prognostication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weil, Alexander G; Wang, Anthony C; Westwick, Harrison J; Ibrahim, George M; Ariani, Rojine T; Crevier, Louis; Perreault, Sebastien; Davidson, Tom; Tseng, Chi-Hong; Fallah, Aria

    2017-03-01

    Medulloblastoma is the most common form of brain malignancy of childhood. The mainstay of epidemiological data regarding childhood medulloblastoma is derived from case series, hence population-based studies are warranted to improve the accuracy of survival estimates. To utilize a big-data approach to update survival estimates in a contemporary cohort of children with medulloblastoma. We performed a population-based retrospective observational cohort study utilizing the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program database that captures all children, less than 20 years of age, between 1973 and 2012 in 18 geographical regions representing 28% of the US population. We included all participants with a presumed or histologically diagnosis of medulloblastoma. The main outcome of interest is survivors at 1, 5 and 10 years following diagnosis. A cohort of 1735 children with a median (interquartile range) age at diagnosis of 7 (4-11) years, with a diagnosis of medulloblastoma were identified. The incidence and prevalence of pediatric medulloblastoma has remained stable over the past 4 decades. There is a critical time point at 1990 when the overall survival has drastically improved. In the contemporary cohort (1990 onwards), the percentage of participants alive was 86, 70 and 63% at 1, 5 and 10 years, respectively. Multivariate Cox-Regression model demonstrated Radiation (HR 0.37; 95% CI 0.30-0.46, p < 0.001) and Surgery (HR 0.42; 95% CI 0.30-0.58, p < 0.001) independently predict survival. The probability of mortality from a neurological cause is <5% in patients who are alive 8 years following diagnosis. The SEER cohort analysis demonstrates significant improvements in pediatric medulloblastoma survival. In contrast to previous reports, the majority of patients survive in the modern era, and those alive 8 years following initial diagnosis are likely a long-term survivor. The importance of minimizing treatment-related toxicity is increasingly apparent given

  15. Distributed Prognostics System Implementation on Wireless Embedded Devices

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Distributed prognostics is the next step in the evolution of prognostic methodologies. It is an important enabling technology for the emerging Condition Based...

  16. Virtual screening approach to identifying influenza virus neuraminidase inhibitors using molecular docking combined with machine-learning-based scoring function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li; Ai, Hai-Xin; Li, Shi-Meng; Qi, Meng-Yuan; Zhao, Jian; Zhao, Qi; Liu, Hong-Sheng

    2017-10-10

    In recent years, an epidemic of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H7N9 virus has persisted in China, with a high mortality rate. To develop novel anti-influenza therapies, we have constructed a machine-learning-based scoring function (RF-NA-Score) for the effective virtual screening of lead compounds targeting the viral neuraminidase (NA) protein. RF-NA-Score is more accurate than RF-Score, with a root-mean-square error of 1.46, Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.707, and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient of 0.707 in a 5-fold cross-validation study. The performance of RF-NA-Score in a docking-based virtual screening of NA inhibitors was evaluated with a dataset containing 281 NA inhibitors and 322 noninhibitors. Compared with other docking-rescoring virtual screening strategies, rescoring with RF-NA-Score significantly improved the efficiency of virtual screening, and a strategy that averaged the scores given by RF-NA-Score, based on the binding conformations predicted with AutoDock, AutoDock Vina, and LeDock, was shown to be the best strategy. This strategy was then applied to the virtual screening of NA inhibitors in the SPECS database. The 100 selected compounds were tested in an in vitro H7N9 NA inhibition assay, and two compounds with novel scaffolds showed moderate inhibitory activities. These results indicate that RF-NA-Score improves the efficiency of virtual screening for NA inhibitors, and can be used successfully to identify new NA inhibitor scaffolds. Scoring functions specific for other drug targets could also be established with the same method.

  17. Identification and prognostic value of anterior gradient protein 2 expression in breast cancer based on tissue microarray.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jilong; Gong, Guohua; Zhang, Bin

    2017-07-01

    Breast cancer has attracted substantial attention as one of the major cancers causing death in women. It is crucial to find potential biomarkers of prognostic value in breast cancer. In this study, the expression pattern of anterior gradient protein 2 in breast cancer was identified based on the main molecular subgroups. Through analysis of 69 samples from the Gene Expression Omnibus database, we found that anterior gradient protein 2 expression was significantly higher in non-triple-negative breast cancer tissues compared with normal tissues and triple-negative breast cancer tissues (p gradient protein 2 expression pattern. Furthermore, we performed immunohistochemical analysis. The quantification results revealed that anterior gradient protein 2 is highly expressed in non-triple-negative breast cancer (grade 3 excluded) and grade 1 + 2 (triple-negative breast cancer excluded) tumours compared with normal tissues. Anterior gradient protein 2 was significantly highly expressed in non-triple-negative breast cancer (grade 3 excluded) and non-triple-negative breast cancer tissues compared with triple-negative breast cancer tissues (p gradient protein 2 was significantly highly expressed in grade 1 + 2 (triple-negative breast cancer excluded) and grade 1 + 2 tissues compared with grade 3 tissues (p gradient protein 2 expression was significantly associated with histologic type, histological grade, oestrogen status and progesterone status. Univariate analysis of clinicopathological variables showed that anterior gradient protein 2 expression, tumour size and lymph node status were significantly correlated with overall survival in patients with grade 1 and 2 tumours. Cox multivariate analysis revealed anterior gradient protein 2 as a putative independent indicator of unfavourable outcomes (p = 0.031). All these data clearly showed that anterior gradient protein 2 is highly expressed in breast cancer and can be regarded as a putative biomarker for

  18. The association between mammographic calcifications and breast cancer prognostic factors in a population-based registry cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyante, Sarah J; Lee, Sheila S; Benefield, Thad S; Hoots, Tiffany N; Henderson, Louise M

    2017-01-01

    Mammographic calcifications can be a marker of malignancy, but their association with prognosis is less well established. In the current study, the authors examined the relationship between calcifications and breast cancer prognostic factors in the population-based Carolina Mammography Registry. The current study included 8472 invasive breast cancers diagnosed in the Carolina Mammography Registry between 1996 and 2011 for which information regarding calcifications occurring within 2 years of diagnosis was reported. Calcification-specific Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) assessments were reported prospectively by a radiologist. Tumor characteristic data were obtained from the North Carolina Central Cancer Registry and/or pathology reports. Multivariable-adjusted associations between the presence of calcifications in the breast affected by cancer and tumor characteristics were estimated using logistic regression. Statistical tests were 2-sided. The presence of calcifications was found to be positively associated with tumors that were high grade (vs low grade: odds ratio [OR], 1.43; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.10-1.88) or had an in situ component (vs without: OR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.81-2.55). Calcifications were found to be inversely associated with hormone receptor-negative status (vs positive status: OR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.57-0.93), size >35 mm (vs ≤8 mm: OR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.37-0.61), and lobular tumors (vs ductal: OR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.22-0.69). The association between the presence of calcifications and an in situ component was limited to BI-RADS category 4 and 5 calcifications and was absent for BI-RADS category 2 or 3 calcifications (P for heterogeneity Cancer 2017;123:219-227. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

  19. Prognostic factors for mortality due to pneumonia among adults from different age groups in Singapore and mortality predictions based on PSI and CURB-65.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zoe Xz; Yong, Yang; Tan, Wan C; Shen, Liang; Ng, Han Seong; Fong, Kok Yong

    2017-08-14

    Pneumonia is associated with considerable mortality. However, the information on age-specific prognostic factors for death from pneumonia is limited. Patients hospitalised with a diagnosis of pneumonia through the emergency department were stratified into three age groups: 18-64 years; 65-84 years; and ≥ 85 years. Multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted to evaluate prognostic factors for mortality and the performance of pneumonia severity scoring tools for mortality prediction. There were 1,902 patients (18-64 years: 614 [32.3%]; 65-84 years: 944 [49.6%]; ≥ 85 years: 344 [18.1%]) enrolled. Mortality rates increased with age (18-64 years: 7.3%; 65-84 years: 16.1%; ≥ 85 years: 29.7%; p aged 18-64 years. Male gender, malignancy, congestive heart failure and eight other parameters reflecting acute disease severity were associated with mortality among patients aged 65-84 years. For patients aged ≥ 85 years, altered mental status, tachycardia, blood urea nitrogen, hypoxaemia, arterial pH and pleural effusion were significantly predictive of mortality. Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) was more sensitive than CURB-65 (Confusion, Uraemia, Respiratory rate ≥ 30 per minute, low Blood pressure, age 65 years or older) for mortality prediction across all age groups. The predictive effect of prognostic factors for mortality varied among patients with pneumonia from the different age groups. PSI performed significantly better than CURB-65 for mortality prediction, but its discriminative power decreased with advancing age.

  20. Validity and predictive ability of the juvenile arthritis disease activity score based on CRP versus ESR in a Nordic population-based setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nordal, E B; Zak, M; Aalto, K

    2012-01-01

    To compare the juvenile arthritis disease activity score (JADAS) based on C reactive protein (CRP) (JADAS-CRP) with JADAS based on erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) (JADAS-ESR) and to validate JADAS in a population-based setting.......To compare the juvenile arthritis disease activity score (JADAS) based on C reactive protein (CRP) (JADAS-CRP) with JADAS based on erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) (JADAS-ESR) and to validate JADAS in a population-based setting....

  1. Surface Prognostic Charts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Prognostic Charts are historical surface prognostic (forecast) charts created by the United States Weather Bureau. They include fronts, isobars, cloud, and...

  2. Prognostic Impact of Array-based Genomic Profiles in Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carneiro, Ana; Isinger, Anna; Karlsson, Anna; Johansson, Jan; Jönsson, Göran; Bendahl, Pär-Ola; Falkenback, Dan; Halvarsson, Britta; Nilbert, Mef

    2008-01-01

    Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a genetically complex tumor type and a major cause of cancer related mortality. Although distinct genetic alterations have been linked to ESCC development and prognosis, the genetic alterations have not gained clinical applicability. We applied array-based comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) to obtain a whole genome copy number profile relevant for identifying deranged pathways and clinically applicable markers. A 32 k aCGH platform was used for high resolution mapping of copy number changes in 30 stage I-IV ESCC. Potential interdependent alterations and deranged pathways were identified and copy number changes were correlated to stage, differentiation and survival. Copy number alterations affected median 19% of the genome and included recurrent gains of chromosome regions 5p, 7p, 7q, 8q, 10q, 11q, 12p, 14q, 16p, 17p, 19p, 19q, and 20q and losses of 3p, 5q, 8p, 9p and 11q. High-level amplifications were observed in 30 regions and recurrently involved 7p11 (EGFR), 11q13 (MYEOV, CCND1, FGF4, FGF3, PPFIA, FAD, TMEM16A, CTTS and SHANK2) and 11q22 (PDFG). Gain of 7p22.3 predicted nodal metastases and gains of 1p36.32 and 19p13.3 independently predicted poor survival in multivariate analysis. aCGH profiling verified genetic complexity in ESCC and herein identified imbalances of multiple central tumorigenic pathways. Distinct gains correlate with clinicopathological variables and independently predict survival, suggesting clinical applicability of genomic profiling in ESCC

  3. Evaluation of a novel scoring and grading model for VP-based exams in postgraduate nurse education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsberg, Elenita; Ziegert, Kristina; Hult, Håkan; Fors, Uno

    2015-12-01

    For Virtual Patient-based exams, several scoring and grading methods have been proposed, but none have yet been validated. The aim of this study was to evaluate a new scoring and grading model for VP-based exams in postgraduate paediatric nurse education. The same student group of 19 students performed a VP-based exam in three consecutive courses. When using the scoring and grading assessment model, which contains a deduction system for unnecessary or unwanted actions, a progression was found in the three courses: 53% of the students passed the first exam, 63% the second and 84% passed the final exam. The most common reason for deduction of points was due to students asking too many interview questions or ordering too many laboratory tests. The results showed that the new scoring model made it possible to judge the students' clinical reasoning process as well as their progress. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Fuzzy weighted average based on left and right scores in Malaysia tourism industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamis, Nor Hanimah; Abdullah, Kamilah; Zulkifli, Muhammad Hazim; Sahlan, Shahrazali; Mohd Yunus, Syaizzal

    2013-04-01

    Tourism is known as an important sector to the Malaysian economy including economic generator, creating business and job offers. It is reported to bring in almost RM30 billion of the national income, thanks to intense worldwide promotion by Tourism Malaysia. One of the well-known attractions in Malaysia is our beautiful islands. The islands continue to be developed into tourist spots and attracting a continuous number of tourists. Chalets, luxury bungalows and resorts quickly develop along the coastlines of popular islands like Tioman, Redang, Pangkor, Perhentian, Sibu and so many others. In this study, we applied Fuzzy Weighted Average (FWA) method based on left and right scores in order to determine the criteria weights and to select the best island in Malaysia. Cost, safety, attractive activities, accommodation and scenery are five main criteria to be considered and five selected islands in Malaysia are taken into accounts as alternatives. The most important criteria that have been considered by the tourist are defined based on criteria weights ranking order and the best island in Malaysia is then determined in terms of FWA values. This pilot study can be used as a reference to evaluate performances or solving any selection problems, where more criteria, alternatives and decision makers will be considered in the future.

  5. Identification of altered pathways in breast cancer based on individualized pathway aberrance score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Sheng-Hong; Zhang, Wei; Jiang, Jing; Sun, Long

    2017-08-01

    The objective of the present study was to identify altered pathways in breast cancer based on the individualized pathway aberrance score (iPAS) method combined with the normal reference (nRef). There were 4 steps to identify altered pathways using the iPAS method: Data preprocessing conducted by the robust multi-array average (RMA) algorithm; gene-level statistics based on average Z ; pathway-level statistics according to iPAS; and a significance test dependent on 1 sample Wilcoxon test. The altered pathways were validated by calculating the changed percentage of each pathway in tumor samples and comparing them with pathways from differentially expressed genes (DEGs). A total of 688 altered pathways with Ppathways were involved in the total 688 altered pathways, which may validate the present results. In addition, there were 324 DEGs and 155 common genes between DEGs and pathway genes. DEGs and common genes were enriched in the same 9 significant terms, which also were members of altered pathways. The iPAS method was suitable for identifying altered pathways in breast cancer. Altered pathways (such as KIF and PLK mediated events) were important for understanding breast cancer mechanisms and for the future application of customized therapeutic decisions.

  6. Effects of Internet and Smartphone Addictions on Depression and Anxiety Based on Propensity Score Matching Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeon-Jin Kim

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The associations of Internet addiction (IA and smartphone addiction (SA with mental health problems have been widely studied. We investigated the effects of IA and SA on depression and anxiety while adjusting for sociodemographic variables. In this study, 4854 participants completed a cross-sectional web-based survey including socio-demographic items, the Korean Scale for Internet Addiction, the Smartphone Addiction Proneness Scale, and the subscales of the Symptom Checklist 90 Items-Revised. The participants were classified into IA, SA, and normal use (NU groups. To reduce sampling bias, we applied the propensity score matching method based on genetics matching. The IA group showed an increased risk of depression (relative risk 1.207; p < 0.001 and anxiety (relative risk 1.264; p < 0.001 compared to NUs. The SA group also showed an increased risk of depression (relative risk 1.337; p < 0.001 and anxiety (relative risk 1.402; p < 0.001 compared to NCs. These findings show that both, IA and SA, exerted significant effects on depression and anxiety. Moreover, our findings showed that SA has a stronger relationship with depression and anxiety, stronger than IA, and emphasized the need for prevention and management policy of the excessive smartphone use.

  7. Generalized composite multiscale permutation entropy and Laplacian score based rolling bearing fault diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jinde; Pan, Haiyang; Yang, Shubao; Cheng, Junsheng

    2018-01-01

    Multiscale permutation entropy (MPE) is a recently proposed nonlinear dynamic method for measuring the randomness and detecting the nonlinear dynamic change of time series and can be used effectively to extract the nonlinear dynamic fault feature from vibration signals of rolling bearing. To solve the drawback of coarse graining process in MPE, an improved MPE method called generalized composite multiscale permutation entropy (GCMPE) was proposed in this paper. Also the influence of parameters on GCMPE and its comparison with the MPE are studied by analyzing simulation data. GCMPE was applied to the fault feature extraction from vibration signal of rolling bearing and then based on the GCMPE, Laplacian score for feature selection and the Particle swarm optimization based support vector machine, a new fault diagnosis method for rolling bearing was put forward in this paper. Finally, the proposed method was applied to analyze the experimental data of rolling bearing. The analysis results show that the proposed method can effectively realize the fault diagnosis of rolling bearing and has a higher fault recognition rate than the existing methods.

  8. Performance of machine-learning scoring functions in structure-based virtual screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wójcikowski, Maciej; Ballester, Pedro J; Siedlecki, Pawel

    2017-04-25

    Classical scoring functions have reached a plateau in their performance in virtual screening and binding affinity prediction. Recently, machine-learning scoring functions trained on protein-ligand complexes have shown great promise in small tailored studies. They have also raised controversy, specifically concerning model overfitting and applicability to novel targets. Here we provide a new ready-to-use scoring function (RF-Score-VS) trained on 15 426 active and 893 897 inactive molecules docked to a set of 102 targets. We use the full DUD-E data sets along with three docking tools, five classical and three machine-learning scoring functions for model building and performance assessment. Our results show RF-Score-VS can substantially improve virtual screening performance: RF-Score-VS top 1% provides 55.6% hit rate, whereas that of Vina only 16.2% (for smaller percent the difference is even more encouraging: RF-Score-VS top 0.1% achieves 88.6% hit rate for 27.5% using Vina). In addition, RF-Score-VS provides much better prediction of measured binding affinity than Vina (Pearson correlation of 0.56 and -0.18, respectively). Lastly, we test RF-Score-VS on an independent test set from the DEKOIS benchmark and observed comparable results. We provide full data sets to facilitate further research in this area (http://github.com/oddt/rfscorevs) as well as ready-to-use RF-Score-VS (http://github.com/oddt/rfscorevs_binary).

  9. A prospective observational study comparing a physiological scoring system with time-based discharge criteria in pediatric ambulatory surgical patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, James; Forrest, Helen; Crawford, Mark W

    2015-10-01

    Discharge criteria based on physiological scoring systems can be used in the postanesthesia care unit (PACU) to fast-track patients after ambulatory surgery; however, studies comparing physiological scoring systems with traditional time-based discharge criteria are lacking. The purpose of this study was to compare PACU discharge readiness times using physiological vs time-based discharge criteria in pediatric ambulatory surgical patients. We recorded physiological observations from consecutive American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status I-III patients aged 1-18 yr who were admitted to the PACU after undergoing ambulatory surgery in a tertiary academic pediatric hospital. The physiological score was a combination of the Aldrete and Chung systems. Scores were recorded every 15 min starting upon arrival in the PACU. Patients were considered fit for discharge once they attained a score ≥12 (maximum score, 14), provided no score was zero, with the time to achieve a score ≥12 defining the criteria-based discharge (CBD) time. Patients were discharged from the PACU when both the CBD and the existing time-based discharge (TBD) criteria were met. The CBD and TBD data were compared using Kaplan-Meier and log-rank analysis. Observations from 506 children are presented. Median (interquartile range [IQR]) age was 5.5 [2.8-9.9] yr. Median [IQR] CBD and TBD PACU discharge readiness times were 30 [15-45] min and 60 [45-60] min, respectively. Analysis of Kaplan-Meier curves indicated a significant difference in discharge times using the different criteria (hazard ratio, 5.43; 95% confidence interval, 4.51 to 6.53; P < 0.001). All patients were discharged home without incident. This prospective study suggests that discharge decisions based on physiological criteria have the potential for significantly speeding the transit of children through the PACU, thereby enhancing PACU efficiency and resource utilization.

  10. Health-related quality of life is a prognostic factor for survival in older patients after colorectal cancer diagnosis: A population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournier, Evelyne; Jooste, Valérie; Woronoff, Anne-Sophie; Quipourt, Valérie; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Mercier, Mariette

    2016-01-01

    Studies carried out in the context of clinical trials have shown a relationship between survival and health-related quality of life in colorectal cancer patients. We assessed the prognostic value of health-related quality of life at diagnosis and of its longitudinal evolution on survival in older colorectal cancer patients. All patients aged ≥65 years, diagnosed with new colorectal cancer between 2003 and 2005 and registered in the Digestive Cancer Registry of Burgundy were eligible. Patients were asked to complete the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 at inclusion, three, six and twelve months after. Multivariate regression models were used to evaluate the prognostic value of health-related quality of life scores at diagnosis and their deterioration on relative survival. In multivariate analysis, a role functioning dimension lower than median was predictive of lower survival (hazard ratio=3.1, p=0.015). After three and six months of follow-up, patients with greater appetite loss were more likely to die, with hazard ratios of 4.7 (p=0.013) and 3.7 (p=0.002), respectively. Health-related quality of life assessments at diagnosis are independently associated with older colorectal cancer patients' survival. Its preservation should be a major management goal for older cancer patients. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Prognostic impact of nomogram based on whole tumour size, tumour disappearance ratio on CT and SUVmax on PET in lung adenocarcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, So Hee; Lee, Ho Yun; Kim, Eun Young; Lee, Kyung Soo [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology and Center for Imaging Science, Samsung Medical Center, Gangnam-Gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ahn, Joong Hyun [Samsung Biomedical Research Institute, Biostatistics Team, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Geewon [Pusan National University Hospital, Pusan National University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology and Medical Research Institute, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Joon Young [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Departments of Nuclear Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Jun [Catholic University of Korea, Department of Pathology, Inchun St. Mary' s Hospital, College of Medicine, Inchun (Korea, Republic of); Han, Joungho [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Department of Pathology, Samsung Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kwon, O.J. [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Division of Respiratory and Critical Medicine of the Department of Internal Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Hong Kwan; Choi, Yong Soo; Kim, Jhingook; Shim, Young Mog [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    Lung adenocarcinoma frequently manifests as subsolid nodules, and the solid portion and ground-glass-opacity (GGO) portion on CT have different prognostic significance. Therefore, current T descriptor, defined as the whole tumour diameter without discrimination between solid and GGO, is insufficient. We aimed to determine the prognostic significance of solid tumour size and attempt to include prognostic factors such as tumour disappearance rate (TDR) on CT and SUVmax on PET/CT. Five hundred and ninety-five patients with completely resected lung adenocarcinoma were analyzed. We developed a nomogram using whole tumour size, TDR, and SUVmax. External validation was performed in another 102 patients. In patients with tumours measuring ≤2 cm and >2 to 3 cm, disease free survival (DFS) was significantly associated with solid tumour size (P < 0.001), but not with whole tumour size (P = 0.052). Developed nomogram was significantly superior to the conventional T stage (area under the curve of survival ROC; P = 0.013 by net reclassification improvement) in stratification of patient survival. In the external validation group, significant difference was noted in DFS according to proposed T stage (P = 0.009). Nomogram-based T descriptors provide better prediction of survival and assessment of individual risks than conventional T descriptors. (orig.)

  12. Utility of Inflammatory Marker- and Nutritional Status-based Prognostic Factors for Predicting the Prognosis of Stage IV Gastric Cancer Patients Undergoing Non-curative Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimatsu, Kenji; Fukino, Nobutada; Ogasawara, Yasuo; Saino, Yoko; Oida, Takatsugu

    2017-08-01

    The present study aimed to compare the utility of various inflammatory marker- and nutritional status-based prognostic factors, including many previous established prognostic factors, for predicting the prognosis of stage IV gastric cancer patients undergoing non-curative surgery. A total of 33 patients with stage IV gastric cancer who had undergone palliative gastrectomy and gastrojejunostomy were included in the study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the relationships between the mGPS, PNI, NLR, PLR, the CONUT, various clinicopathological factors and cancer-specific survival (CS). Among patients who received non-curative surgery, univariate analysis of CS identified the following significant risk factors: chemotherapy, mGPS and NLR, and multivariate analysis revealed that the mGPS was independently associated with CS. The mGPS was a more useful prognostic factor than the PNI, NLR, PLR and CONUT in patients undergoing non-curative surgery for stage IV gastric cancer. Copyright© 2017, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

  13. Avoiding and Correcting Bias in Score-Based Latent Variable Regression with Discrete Manifest Items

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Irene R. R.; Thomas, D. Roland

    2008-01-01

    This article considers models involving a single structural equation with latent explanatory and/or latent dependent variables where discrete items are used to measure the latent variables. Our primary focus is the use of scores as proxies for the latent variables and carrying out ordinary least squares (OLS) regression on such scores to estimate…

  14. Analysis of Low Appropriateness Score Exam Trends in Decision Support-based Radiology Order Entry System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Supriya; Klein, Kandace; Singh, Anand H; Thrall, James H

    2017-05-01

    Awareness of imaging utilization increased after implementation of Radiology Order Entry with decision support systems (ROE-DS). Our hypothesis is few exams with low Clinical Appropriateness Score (CAS) on ROE-DS are performed. Clinical indications of exams with CAS less than 3 (9-point scale) were re-reviewed and reports analyzed. Structured Query Language-based query retrieved exams with CAS less than 3 in ROE-DS from January 2007 to December 2011. Reasons provided by physicians for ordering these exams and reports of exams performed were analyzed. For each indication, number of exams ordered and performed was calculated. Statistical significance was assessed using Student's t test and χ 2 analysis (P < .05). From 445,984 exams, 12,615 exams (2.8%) had CAS less than 3, and 7,956 exams (63%) were performed. Reasons for ordering of 12,615 low CAS exams were as follows: Requests by physician specialists without further explanation (4,516 = 35.8%), notation of special clinical circumstances (2,877 = 22.8%), requests by nonphysician staff without further explanation (1,383 = 10.9%), absence of suspected finding on previous modality (1,099 = 8.7%), patient preference (737 = 5.8%), and requests based on radiologists' recommendations (706 = 5.6%). Difference between male and female (male < female) preferences for low CAS exams was statistically significant (P < .01). Imaging outcome was highest for extremity MRI cases (66.7%; P < .01). Less than 3% of exams ordered had low CAS and about two-thirds of these were performed. Most common indication for ordering these exams was physician specialist request based on opinion of medical necessity without specification. Extremity MRI constituted the highest positive findings for low CAS exams performed. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  15. Machine-learning scoring functions to improve structure-based binding affinity prediction and virtual screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ain, Qurrat Ul; Aleksandrova, Antoniya; Roessler, Florian D; Ballester, Pedro J

    2015-01-01

    Docking tools to predict whether and how a small molecule binds to a target can be applied if a structural model of such target is available. The reliability of docking depends, however, on the accuracy of the adopted scoring function (SF). Despite intense research over the years, improving the accuracy of SFs for structure-based binding affinity prediction or virtual screening has proven to be a challenging task for any class of method. New SFs based on modern machine-learning regression models, which do not impose a predetermined functional form and thus are able to exploit effectively much larger amounts of experimental data, have recently been introduced. These machine-learning SFs have been shown to outperform a wide range of classical SFs at both binding affinity prediction and virtual screening. The emerging picture from these studies is that the classical approach of using linear regression with a small number of expert-selected structural features can be strongly improved by a machine-learning approach based on nonlinear regression allied with comprehensive data-driven feature selection. Furthermore, the performance of classical SFs does not grow with larger training datasets and hence this performance gap is expected to widen as more training data becomes available in the future. Other topics covered in this review include predicting the reliability of a SF on a particular target class, generating synthetic data to improve predictive performance and modeling guidelines for SF development. WIREs Comput Mol Sci 2015, 5:405-424. doi: 10.1002/wcms.1225 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

  16. Edinburgh Cognitive and Behavioural ALS Screen (ECAS)-Italian version: regression based norms and equivalent scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siciliano, Mattia; Trojano, Luigi; Trojsi, Francesca; Greco, Roberta; Santoro, Manuela; Basile, Giuseppe; Piscopo, Fausta; D'Iorio, Alfonsina; Patrone, Manila; Femiano, Cinzia; Monsurrò, Mariarosaria; Tedeschi, Gioacchino; Santangelo, Gabriella

    2017-06-01

    Cognitive assessment for individuals with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) can be difficult because of frequent occurrence of difficulties with speech, writing, and drawing. The Edinburgh Cognitive and Behavioural ALS Screen (ECAS) is a recent multi-domain neuropsychological screening tool specifically devised for this purpose, and it assesses the following domains: executive functions, social cognition, verbal fluency and language (ALS-specific), but also memory and visuospatial abilities (Non-ALS specific). ECAS total score ranges from 0 (worst performance) to 136 (best performance). Moreover, a brief caregiver interview provides an assessment of behaviour changes and psychotic symptoms usually associated with ALS patients. The aim of the present study was to provide normative values for ECAS total score and sub-scores in a sample of Italian healthy subjects. Two hundred and seventy-seven Italian healthy subjects (151 women and 126 men; age range 30-79 years; educational level from primary school to university) underwent ECAS and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that age and education significantly influenced performance on ECAS total score and sub-scale scores. From the derived linear equation, a correction grid for raw scores was built. Inferential cut-off scores were estimated using a non-parametric technique and equivalent scores (ES) were computed. Correlation analysis showed a good significant correlation between adjusted ECAS total scores with adjusted MoCA total scores (r rho  = 0.669, p < 0.0001). The present study provided normative data for the ECAS in an Italian population useful for both clinical and research purposes.

  17. Histopathological Validation of the Surface-Intermediate-Base Margin Score for Standardized Reporting of Resection Technique during Nephron Sparing Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minervini, Andrea; Campi, Riccardo; Kutikov, Alexander; Montagnani, Ilaria; Sessa, Francesco; Serni, Sergio; Raspollini, Maria Rosaria; Carini, Marco

    2015-10-01

    The surface-intermediate-base margin score is a novel standardized reporting system of resection techniques during nephron sparing surgery. We validated the surgeon assessed surface-intermediate-base score with microscopic histopathological assessment of partial nephrectomy specimens. Between June and August 2014 data were prospectively collected from 40 consecutive patients undergoing nephron sparing surgery. The surface-intermediate-base score was assigned to all cases. The score specific areas were color coded with tissue margin ink and sectioned for histological evaluation of healthy renal margin thickness. Maximum, minimum and mean thickness of healthy renal margin for each score specific area grade (surface [S] = 0, S = 1 ; intermediate [I] or base [B] = 0, I or B = 1, I or B = 2) was reported. The Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to compare the thickness of healthy renal margin in S = 0 vs 1 and I or B = 0 vs 1 vs 2 grades, respectively. Maximum, minimum and mean thickness of healthy renal margin was significantly different among score specific area grades S = 0 vs 1, and I or B = 0 vs 1, 0 vs 2 and 1 vs 2 (p <0.001). The main limitations of the study are the low number of the I or B = 1 and I or B = 2 samples and the assumption that each microscopic slide reflects the entire score specific area for histological analysis. The surface-intermediate-base scoring method can be readily harnessed in real-world clinical practice and accurately mirrors histopathological analysis for quantification and reporting of healthy renal margin thickness removed during tumor excision. Copyright © 2015 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. An image based system to automatically and objectivelly score the degreeof redness and scaling in psoriasi lesions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gomez, David Delgado; Ersbøll, Bjarne Kjær; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    2004-01-01

    In this work, a combined statistical and image analysis method to automatically evaluate the severity of scaling in psoriasis lesions is proposed. The method separates the different regions of the disease in the image and scores the degree of scaling based on the properties of these areas. The pr...... that the obtained scores are highly correlated with scores made by doctors. This and the fact that the obtained measures are continuous indicate the proposed method is a suitable tool to evaluate the lesion and to track the evolution of dermatological diseases....

  19. Risk estimation of distant metastasis in node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer patients using an RT-PCR based prognostic expression signature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tutt, Andrew; Shu, Henry; Springall, Robert; Cane, Paul; McCallie, Blair; Kam-Morgan, Lauren; Anderson, Steve; Buerger, Horst; Gray, Joe; Bennington, James; Esserman, Laura; Wang, Alice; Hastie, Trevor; Broder, Samuel; Sninsky, John; Brandt, Burkhard; Waldman, Fred; Rowland, Charles; Gillett, Cheryl; Lau, Kit; Chew, Karen; Dai, Hongyue; Kwok, Shirley; Ryder, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    Given the large number of genes purported to be prognostic for breast cancer, it would be optimal if the genes identified are not confounded by the continuously changing systemic therapies. The aim of this study was to discover and validate a breast cancer prognostic expression signature for distant metastasis in untreated, early stage, lymph node-negative (N-) estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) patients with extensive follow-up times. 197 genes previously associated with metastasis and ER status were profiled from 142 untreated breast cancer subjects. A 'metastasis score' (MS) representing fourteen differentially expressed genes was developed and evaluated for its association with distant-metastasis-free survival (DMFS). Categorical risk classification was established from the continuous MS and further evaluated on an independent set of 279 untreated subjects. A third set of 45 subjects was tested to determine the prognostic performance of the MS in tamoxifen-treated women. A 14-gene signature was found to be significantly associated (p < 0.05) with distant metastasis in a training set and subsequently in an independent validation set. In the validation set, the hazard ratios (HR) of the high risk compared to low risk groups were 4.02 (95% CI 1.91–8.44) for the endpoint of DMFS and 1.97 (95% CI 1.28 to 3.04) for overall survival after adjustment for age, tumor size and grade. The low and high MS risk groups had 10-year estimates (95% CI) of 96% (90–99%) and 72% (64–78%) respectively, for DMFS and 91% (84–95%) and 68% (61–75%), respectively for overall survival. Performance characteristics of the signature in the two sets were similar. Ki-67 labeling index (LI) was predictive for recurrent disease in the training set, but lost significance after adjustment for the expression signature. In a study of tamoxifen-treated patients, the HR for DMFS in high compared to low risk groups was 3.61 (95% CI 0.86–15.14). The 14-gene signature is significantly

  20. Reconstruction based finger-knuckle-print verification with score level adaptive binary fusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Guangwei; Zhang, Lei; Yang, Jian; Zhang, Lin; Zhang, David

    2013-12-01

    Recently, a new biometrics identifier, namely finger knuckle print (FKP), has been proposed for personal authentication with very interesting results. One of the advantages of FKP verification lies in its user friendliness in data collection. However, the user flexibility in positioning fingers also leads to a certain degree of pose variations in the collected query FKP images. The widely used Gabor filtering based competitive coding scheme is sensitive to such variations, resulting in many false rejections. We propose to alleviate this problem by reconstructing the query sample with a dictionary learned from the template samples in the gallery set. The reconstructed FKP image can reduce much the enlarged matching distance caused by finger pose variations; however, both the intra-class and inter-class distances will be reduced. We then propose a score level adaptive binary fusion rule to adaptively fuse the matching distances before and after reconstruction, aiming to reduce the false rejections without increasing much the false acceptances. Experimental results on the benchmark PolyU FKP database show that the proposed method significantly improves the FKP verification accuracy.

  1. Weighted score-level feature fusion based on Dempster-Shafer evidence theory for action recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guoliang; Jia, Songmin; Li, Xiuzhi; Zhang, Xiangyin

    2018-01-01

    The majority of human action recognition methods use multifeature fusion strategy to improve the classification performance, where the contribution of different features for specific action has not been paid enough attention. We present an extendible and universal weighted score-level feature fusion method using the Dempster-Shafer (DS) evidence theory based on the pipeline of bag-of-visual-words. First, the partially distinctive samples in the training set are selected to construct the validation set. Then, local spatiotemporal features and pose features are extracted from these samples to obtain evidence information. The DS evidence theory and the proposed rule of survival of the fittest are employed to achieve evidence combination and calculate optimal weight vectors of every feature type belonging to each action class. Finally, the recognition results are deduced via the weighted summation strategy. The performance of the established recognition framework is evaluated on Penn Action dataset and a subset of the joint-annotated human metabolome database (sub-JHMDB). The experiment results demonstrate that the proposed feature fusion method can adequately exploit the complementarity among multiple features and improve upon most of the state-of-the-art algorithms on Penn Action and sub-JHMDB datasets.

  2. Construction of an Exome-Wide Risk Score for Schizophrenia Based on a Weighted Burden Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, David

    2018-01-01

    Polygenic risk scores obtained as a weighted sum of associated variants can be used to explore association in additional data sets and to assign risk scores to individuals. The methods used to derive polygenic risk scores from common SNPs are not suitable for variants detected in whole exome sequencing studies. Rare variants, which may have major effects, are seen too infrequently to judge whether they are associated and may not be shared between training and test subjects. A method is proposed whereby variants are weighted according to their frequency, their annotations and the genes they affect. A weighted sum across all variants provides an individual risk score. Scores constructed in this way are used in a weighted burden test and are shown to be significantly different between schizophrenia cases and controls using a five-way cross-validation procedure. This approach represents a first attempt to summarise exome sequence variation into a summary risk score, which could be combined with risk scores from common variants and from environmental factors. It is hoped that the method could be developed further. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/University College London.

  3. Prehospital score for acute disease: a community-based observational study in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fujiwara Hidekazu

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Ambulance usage in Japan has increased consistently because it is free under the national health insurance system. The introduction of refusal for ambulance transfer is being debated nationally. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the relationship between prehospital data and hospitalization outcome for acute disease patients, and to develop a simple prehospital evaluation tool using prehospital data for Japan's emergency medical service system. Methods The subjects were 9,160 consecutive acute disease patients aged ≥ 15 years who were transferred to hospital by Kishiwada City Fire Department ambulance between July 2004 and March 2006. The relationship between prehospital data (age, systolic blood pressure, pulse rate, respiration rate, level of consciousness, SpO2 level and ability to walk and outcome (hospitalization or non-hospitalization was analyzed using logistic regression models. The prehospital score component of each item of prehospital data was determined by beta coefficients. Eligible patients were scored retrospectively and the distribution of outcome was examined. For patients transported to the two main hospitals, outcome after hospitalization was also confirmed. Results A total of 8,330 (91% patients were retrospectively evaluated using a prehospital score with a maximum value of 14. The percentage of patients requiring hospitalization rose from 9% with score = 0 to 100% with score = 14. With a cut-off point score ≥ 2, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 97%, 16%, 39% and 89%, respectively. Among the 6,498 patients transported to the two main hospitals, there were no deaths at scores ≤ 1 and the proportion of non-hospitalization was over 90%. The proportion of deaths increased rapidly at scores ≥ 11. Conclusion The prehospital score could be a useful tool for deciding the refusal of ambulance transfer in Japan's emergency medical

  4. Analytical validation of the PAM50-based Prosigna Breast Cancer Prognostic Gene Signature Assay and nCounter Analysis System using formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded breast tumor specimens

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, Torsten; Storhoff, James; Wallden, Brett; Schaper, Carl; Ferree, Sean; Liu, Shuzhen; Gao, Dongxia; Barry, Garrett; Dowidar, Naeem; Maysuria, Malini

    2014-01-01

    NanoString’s Prosigna™ Breast Cancer Prognostic Gene Signature Assay is based on the PAM50 gene expression signature. The test outputs a risk of recurrence (ROR) score, risk category, and intrinsic subtype (Luminal A/B, HER2-enriched, Basal-like). The studies described here were designed to validate the analytical performance of the test on the nCounter Analysis System across multiple laboratories. Analytical precision was measured by testing five breast tumor RNA samples across 3 sites. Reproducibility was measured by testing replicate tissue sections from 43 FFPE breast tumor blocks across 3 sites following independent pathology review at each site. The RNA input range was validated by comparing assay results at the extremes of the specified range to the nominal RNA input level. Interference was evaluated by including non-tumor tissue into the test. The measured standard deviation (SD) was less than 1 ROR unit within the analytical precision study and the measured total SD was 2.9 ROR units within the reproducibility study. The ROR scores for RNA inputs at the extremes of the range were the same as those at the nominal input level. Assay results were stable in the presence of moderate amounts of surrounding non-tumor tissue (<70% by area). The analytical performance of NanoString’s Prosigna assay has been validated using FFPE breast tumor specimens across multiple clinical testing laboratories

  5. Low Apgar score, neonatal encephalopathy and epidural analgesia during labour: a Swedish registry-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Törnell, S; Ekéus, C; Hultin, M; Håkansson, S; Thunberg, J; Högberg, U

    2015-04-01

    Maternal intrapartum fever (MF) is associated with neonatal sequelae, and women in labour who receive epidural analgesia (EA) are more likely to develop hyperthermia. The aims of this study were to investigate if EA and/or a diagnosis of MF were associated to adverse neonatal outcomes at a population level. Population-based register study with data from the Swedish Birth Register and the Swedish National Patient Register, including all nulliparae (n=294,329) with singleton pregnancies who gave birth at term in Sweden 1999-2008. Neonatal outcomes analysed were Apgar score (AS)neonatal encephalopathy (e.g. convulsions or neonatal cerebral ischaemia). Multivariate logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (AOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). EA was used in 44% of the deliveries. Low AS or encephalopathy was found in 1.26% and 0.39% of the children in the EA group compared with 0.80% and 0.29% in the control group. In multivariate analysis, EA was associated with increased risk with low AS, AOR 1.27 (95% CI 1.16-1.39), but not with diagnosis of encephalopathy, 1.11 (0.96-1.29). A diagnosis of MF was associated with increased risk for both low AS, 2.27 (1.71-3.02), and of neonatal encephalopathy, 1.97 (1.19-3.26). Diagnosis of MF was associated with low AS and neonatal encephalopathy, whereas EA was only associated with low AS and not with neonatal encephalopathy. The found associations might be a result of confounding by indication, which is difficult to assess in a registry-based population study. © 2015 The Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Sarcopenia in the prognosis of cirrhosis: Going beyond the MELD score

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hee Yeon; Jang, Jeong Won

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the prognosis of patients with cirrhosis remains challenging, because the natural history of cirrhosis varies according to the cause, presence of portal hypertension, liver synthetic function, and the reversibility of underlying disease. Conventional prognostic scoring systems, including the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score or model for end-stage liver diseases are widely used; however, revised models have been introduced to improve prognostic performance. Although sarcopenia is one of the most common complications related to survival of patients with cirrhosis, the newly proposed prognostic models lack a nutritional status evaluation of patients. This is reflected by the lack of an optimal index for sarcopenia in terms of objectivity, reproducibility, practicality, and prognostic performance, and of a consensus definition for sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis in whom ascites and edema may interfere with body composition analysis. Quantifying skeletal muscle mass using cross-sectional abdominal imaging is a promising tool for assessing sarcopenia. As radiological imaging provides direct visualization of body composition, it is useful to evaluate sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis whose body mass index, anthropometric measurements, or biochemical markers are inaccurate on a nutritional assessment. Sarcopenia defined by cross-sectional imaging-based muscular assessment is prevalent and predicts mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Sarcopenia alone or in combination with conventional prognostic systems shows promise for a cirrhosis prognosis. Including an objective assessment of sarcopenia with conventional scores to optimize the outcome prediction for patients with cirrhosis needs further research. PMID:26167066

  7. A STUDY ON RANKING METHOD IN RETRIEVING WEB PAGES BASED ON CONTENT AND LINK ANALYSIS: COMBINATION OF FOURIER DOMAIN SCORING AND PAGERANK SCORING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Purwitasari

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Ranking module is an important component of search process which sorts through relevant pages. Since collection of Web pages has additional information inherent in the hyperlink structure of the Web, it can be represented as link score and then combined with the usual information retrieval techniques of content score. In this paper we report our studies about ranking score of Web pages combined from link analysis, PageRank Scoring, and content analysis, Fourier Domain Scoring. Our experiments use collection of Web pages relate to Statistic subject from Wikipedia with objectives to check correctness and performance evaluation of combination ranking method. Evaluation of PageRank Scoring show that the highest score does not always relate to Statistic. Since the links within Wikipedia articles exists so that users are always one click away from more information on any point that has a link attached, it it possible that unrelated topics to Statistic are most likely frequently mentioned in the collection. While the combination method show link score which is given proportional weight to content score of Web pages does effect the retrieval results.

  8. The prognostic importance of miR-21 in stage II colon cancer: a population-based study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjaer-Frifeldt, S.; Hansen, T. F.; Nielsen, B. S.

    2012-01-01

    that increasing miR-21 expression levels were significantly correlated to decreasing RF-CSS. Further investigations of the clinical importance of miR-21 in the selection of high-risk stage II colon cancer patients are merited. British Journal of Cancer (2012) 107, 1169-1174. doi:10.1038/bjc.2012.365 www......BACKGROUND: Despite several years of research and attempts to develop prognostic models a considerable fraction of stage II colon cancer patients will experience relapse within few years from their operation. The aim of the present study was to investigate the prognostic importance of miRNA-21 (mi......-free cancer-specific survival (RF-CSS): HR = 1.26; 95% CI: 1.15-1.60; P importance and was found to be significantly related to poor RF-CSS: HR 1.41; 95% CI: 1.19-1.67; P

  9. MEASUREMENT OF THE STUDENTS’ ATTITUDE TOWARD A WHOLE-LANGUAGEAPPROACH-BASED LECTURE USING SCORE QUESTIONNAIRES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nizamuddin Sadiq

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: The objective was to investigate students’ attitude toward the implementation of a whole language approach on Reading and Writing for Occupational Purposes Course in the academic year of 2013/2014. The approaches employed were phonological and phoneme awareness, phonic and word study, fluency, vocabulary, comprehension skills and strategies, and writing. The participants were 15 students of the English Language Education Department, Universitas Islam Indonesia. SCORE questionnaire using the Likert’s scale was the instrument. Calculation was to find out score index and categorization by following Riduwan’s (2007 score interpretation criteria. The findings showed that in the simple category, two of ten questions were agreed absolutely (100%, in the clear category, all questions were agreed for 80 %, in the original category, five of thirteen questions reached majority of agreement (100%, in the relevant category, one of five questions was agreed absolutely (100%, and in the enjoyable category, all questions were agreed by 93%. Keywords: a whole language approach, SCORE, score interpretation criteria PENGUKURAN SIKAP MAHASISWA TENTANG PERKULIAHAN BERBASIS A WHOLE LANGUAGE APPROACH DENGAN KUESIONER SCORE Abstrak: Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengukur sikap mahasiswa terhadap pelaksanaan a whole language approach dalam perkuliahan Reading and Writing for Occupational Purposes Course tahun akademik 2013/2014. Pendekatan yang diterapkan adalah kesadaran fonetik dan fonemik, pelafalan dan kata, kelancaran, kosakata, keterampilan dan strategi membaca komprehensif, dan menulis. Responden penelitian ini adalah 15 maahsiswa Pendidikan Bahasa Inggris Universitas Islam Indonesia. Kuesioner SCOREs dengan skala Likert sebagai instrumen. Penghitungan ditujukan kepada skor indeks dan kategorisasi mengikuti criteria interpretasi skor Riduwan (2007. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa pada kategori simple, dua pertanyaan disetujui mutlak (100%, pada kategori

  10. Measurement Properties of the Smartphone-Based B-B Score in Current Shoulder Pathologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claude Pichonnaz

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This study is aimed at the determination of the measurement properties of the shoulder function B-B Score measured with a smartphone. This score measures the symmetry between sides of a power-related metric for two selected movements, with 100% representing perfect symmetry. Twenty healthy participants, 20 patients with rotator cuff conditions, 23 with fractures, 22 with capsulitis, and 23 with shoulder instabilities were measured twice across a six-month interval using the B-B Score and shoulder function questionnaires. The discriminative power, responsiveness, diagnostic power, concurrent validity, minimal detectable change (MDC, minimal clinically important improvement (MCII, and patient acceptable symptom state (PASS were evaluated. Significant differences with the control group and significant baseline—six-month differences were found for the rotator cuff condition, fracture, and capsulitis patient groups. The B-B Score was responsive and demonstrated excellent diagnostic power, except for shoulder instability. The correlations with clinical scores were generally moderate to high, but lower for instability. The MDC was 18.1%, the MCII was 25.2%, and the PASS was 77.6. No floor effect was observed. The B-B Score demonstrated excellent measurement properties in populations with rotator cuff conditions, proximal humerus fractures, and capsulitis, and can thus be used as a routine test to evaluate those patients.

  11. Measurement Properties of the Smartphone-Based B-B Score in Current Shoulder Pathologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pichonnaz, Claude; Duc, Cyntia; Gleeson, Nigel; Ancey, Céline; Jaccard, Hervé; Lécureux, Estelle; Farron, Alain; Jolles, Brigitte M.; Aminian, Kamiar

    2015-01-01

    This study is aimed at the determination of the measurement properties of the shoulder function B-B Score measured with a smartphone. This score measures the symmetry between sides of a power-related metric for two selected movements, with 100% representing perfect symmetry. Twenty healthy participants, 20 patients with rotator cuff conditions, 23 with fractures, 22 with capsulitis, and 23 with shoulder instabilities were measured twice across a six-month interval using the B-B Score and shoulder function questionnaires. The discriminative power, responsiveness, diagnostic power, concurrent validity, minimal detectable change (MDC), minimal clinically important improvement (MCII), and patient acceptable symptom state (PASS) were evaluated. Significant differences with the control group and significant baseline—six-month differences were found for the rotator cuff condition, fracture, and capsulitis patient groups. The B-B Score was responsive and demonstrated excellent diagnostic power, except for shoulder instability. The correlations with clinical scores were generally moderate to high, but lower for instability. The MDC was 18.1%, the MCII was 25.2%, and the PASS was 77.6. No floor effect was observed. The B-B Score demonstrated excellent measurement properties in populations with rotator cuff conditions, proximal humerus fractures, and capsulitis, and can thus be used as a routine test to evaluate those patients. PMID:26506355

  12. MRI-detected skull-base invasion. Prognostic value and therapeutic implication in intensity-modulated radiotherapy treatment for nasopharyngeal carcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheng, Yi-Kan; Jiang, Ning; Yue, Dan; Tang, Ling-Long; Zhang, Fan; Lin, Li; Liu, Xu; Chen, Lei; Ma, Jun [Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Department of Radiation Oncology, Guangzhou (China); Liu, Li-Zhi [Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Department of Radiology, Guangzhou (China)

    2014-10-15

    With advances in imaging and radiotherapy, the prognostic value of skull-base invasion in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) needs to be reassessed. We aimed to define a classification system and evaluate the prognostic value of the classification of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-detected skull-base invasion in NPC treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). We retrospectively reviewed 749 patients who underwent MRI and were subsequently histologically diagnosed with nondisseminated NPC and treated with IMRT. MRI-detected skull-base invasion was not found to be an independent prognostic factor for overall survival (OS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), local relapse-free survival (LRFS), or disease-free survival (DFS; p > 0.05 for all). Skull-base invasion was classified according to the incidence of each site (type I sites inside pharyngobasilar fascia and clivus vs. type II sites outside pharyngobasilar fascia). The 5-year OS, DMFS, LRFS, and DFS rates in the classification of skull-base invasion in NPC were 83 vs. 67 %, 85 vs.75 %, 95 vs. 88 %, and 76 vs. 62 %, respectively (p < 0.05 for all). Multivariate analysis indicated the classification of skull-base invasion was an independent prognostic factor. MRI-detected skull-base invasion is not an independent prognostic factor in patients with NPC treated with IMRT. However, classification according to the site of invasion has prognostic value. Therefore, patients with various subclassifications of stage T3 disease may receive treatment with different intensities; however, further studies are warranted to prove this. (orig.) [German] Aufgrund der Fortschritte der bildgebenden Verfahren und der Strahlentherapie muss der prognostische Wert der Invasion des nasopharyngealen Karzinoms (NPC) in die Schaedelbasis erneut bewertet werden. Unser Ziel ist die Definition eines Klassifikationssystems und die Untersuchung des prognostischen Werts der Klassifikation der MRT-ermittelten Invasion des mit

  13. [The use of scores in general medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Ursula; Rösli, Andreas; Ballmer, Peter E; Rippin, Sarah Jane

    2013-10-01

    Scores are tools to combine complex information into a numerical value. In General Medicine, there are scores to assist in making diagnoses and prognoses, scores to assist therapeutic decision making and to evaluate therapeutic results and scores to help physicians when informing and advising patients. We review six of the scoring systems that have the greatest utility for the General Physician in hospital-based care and in General Practice. The Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS 2002) tool is designed to identify hospital patients in danger of malnutrition. The aim is to improve the nutritional status of these patients. The CURB-65 score predicts 30-day mortality in patients with community acquired pneumonia. Patients with a low score can be considered for home treatment, patients with an elevated score require hospitalisation and those with a high score should be treated as having severe pneumonia; treatment in the intensive care unit should be considered. The IAS-AGLA score of the Working Group on Lipids and Atherosclerosis of the Swiss Society of Cardiology calculates the 10-year risk of a myocardial infarction for people living in Switzerland. The working group makes recommendations for preventative treatment according to the calculated risk status. The Body Mass Index, which is calculated by dividing the body weight in kilograms by the height in meters squared and then divided into weight categories, is used to classify people as underweight, of normal weight, overweight or obese. The prognostic value of this classification is discussed. The Mini-Mental State Examination allows the physician to assess important cognitive functions in a simple and standardised form. The Glasgow Coma Scale is used to classify the level of consciousness in patients with head injury. It can be used for triage and correlates with prognosis.

  14. Generalization of the Lord-Wingersky Algorithm to Computing the Distribution of Summed Test Scores Based on Real-Number Item Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seonghoon

    2013-01-01

    With known item response theory (IRT) item parameters, Lord and Wingersky provided a recursive algorithm for computing the conditional frequency distribution of number-correct test scores, given proficiency. This article presents a generalized algorithm for computing the conditional distribution of summed test scores involving real-number item…

  15. Development of a prognostic tool for the occurrence of feather pecking and cannibalism in laying hens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaesberg, A-K U; Louton, H; Erhard, M; Schmidt, P; Zepp, M; Helmer, F; Schwarzer, A

    2018-03-01

    In July 2015, a German voluntary decree stipulated that the keeping of beak-trimmed laying hens after the 1st of January 2017 will no longer be permitted. Simultaneously, the present project was initiated to validate a newly developed prognostic tool for laying hen farmers to forecast, at the beginning of a laying period, the probability of future problems with feather pecking and cannibalism in their flock. For this purpose, we used a computer-based prognostic tool in form of a questionnaire that was easy and quick to complete and facilitated comparisons of different flocks. It contained various possible risk factors that were classified into 3 score categories (1 = "no need for action," 2 = "intermediate need for action," 3 = "instant need for action"). For the validation of this tool, 43 flocks of 41 farms were examined twice, at the beginning of the laying period (around the 20th wk of life) and around the 67th wk of life. At both visits, the designated investigators filled out the questionnaire and assessed the plumage condition and the skin lesions (as indicators of occurrence of feather pecking and cannibalism) of 50 laying hens of each flock. The average prognostic score of the first visit was compared with the existence of feather pecking and cannibalism in each flock at the end of the laying period. The results showed that the prognostic score was negatively correlated with the plumage score (r = -0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI]: [-0.56; -0.02]) and positively correlated with the skin lesion score (r = 0.38; 95% CI: [0.09; 0.61]). These relationships demonstrate that a better prognostic score was associated with a better plumage and skin lesion score. After performing a principal component analysis on the single scores, we found that only 6 components are sufficient to obtain highly sensitive and specific prognostic results. Thus, the data of this analysis should be used for creating applicable software for use on laying hen farms.

  16. Systematic assessment of cervical cancer initiation and progression uncovers genetic panels for deep learning-based early diagnosis and proposes novel diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Nguyen Phuoc; Jung, Kyung Hee; Yoon, Sang Jun; Anh, Nguyen Hoang; Nghi, Tran Diem; Kang, Yun Pyo; Yan, Hong Hua; Min, Jung Eun; Hong, Soon-Sun; Kwon, Sung Won

    2017-12-12

    Although many outstanding achievements in the management of cervical cancer (CxCa) have obtained, it still imposes a major burden which has prompted scientists to discover and validate new CxCa biomarkers to improve the diagnostic and prognostic assessment of CxCa. In this study, eight different gene expression data sets containing 202 cancer, 115 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), and 105 normal samples were utilized for an integrative systems biology assessment in a multi-stage carcinogenesis manner. Deep learning-based diagnostic models were established based on the genetic panels of intrinsic genes of cervical carcinogenesis as well as on the unbiased variable selection approach. Survival analysis was also conducted to explore the potential biomarker candidates for prognostic assessment. Our results showed that cell cycle, RNA transport, mRNA surveillance, and one carbon pool by folate were the key regulatory mechanisms involved in the initiation, progression, and metastasis of CxCa. Various genetic panels combined with machine learning algorithms successfully differentiated CxCa from CIN and normalcy in cross-study normalized data sets. In particular, the 168-gene deep learning model for the differentiation of cancer from normalcy achieved an externally validated accuracy of 97.96% (99.01% sensitivity and 95.65% specificity). Survival analysis revealed that ZNF281 and EPHB6 were the two most promising prognostic genetic markers for CxCa among others. Our findings open new opportunities to enhance current understanding of the characteristics of CxCa pathobiology. In addition, the combination of transcriptomics-based signatures and deep learning classification may become an important approach to improve CxCa diagnosis and management in clinical practice.

  17. Scores of a web-based version of the seasonal pattern assessment questionnaire in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Martinez

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Seasonal affective disorder (SAD is a proposed mental disorder still controversial. This condition is prevalent in northern latitudes, but few studies have been conducted at locations in the southern hemisphere. It is usually assessed by the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (SPAQ. This study aimed to evaluate, through on-line questionnaire, the hypothesis that, in the Brazilian population, latitude and longitude influence SPAQ scores. Methods: An advertisement was posted on a sleep medicine website inviting visitors to investigate seasonal patterns of behavior and mood, using a Brazilian Portuguese version of the SPAQ. The geographic coordinates of the place of residence of each respondent were analyzed as a continuous variable or distributed in quartiles of latitude and longitude. The psychometric properties of the SPAQ were assessed by reliability and factor analyses. Results: Answers from 1001 respondents out of 1045 were considered eligible. High SPAQ scores were observed in 287 respondents, equally distributed among all latitude and longitude quartiles. Data collected in different seasons and during daylight saving time did not differ significantly in any of the scores for SPAQ dimensions. No correlations between SPAQ scores and latitude or longitude were observed. Psychometric properties of the SPAQ were preserved in all geographic locations. Conclusion: The finding of similar SPAQ scores at a wide latitude range defies the concept of SAD symptoms as latitude or longitude-dependent phenomena.

  18. Prediction of acute pancreatitis risk based on PIP score in children with cystic fibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terlizzi, V; Tosco, A; Tomaiuolo, R; Sepe, A; Amato, N; Casale, A; Mercogliano, C; De Gregorio, F; Improta, F; Elce, A; Castaldo, G; Raia, V

    2014-09-01

    Currently no tools to predict risk of acute (AP) and recurrent pancreatitis (ARP) in children with cystic fibrosis (CF) are available. We assessed the prevalence of AP/ARP and tested the potential role of Pancreatic Insufficiency Prevalence (PIP) score in a cohort of children with CF. We identified two groups of children, on the basis of presence/absence of AP/ARP, who were compared for age at diagnosis, clinical features, genotypes and sweat chloride level. PIP score was calculated for each patient. 10/167 (5.9%) experienced at least one episode of AP during follow up; 10/10 were pancreatic sufficient (PS). Patients with AP/ARP showed a PIP score ≤0.25 more frequently (6/10) than patients without AP/ARP. The odds ratio (95% CI) of developing pancreatitis was 4.54 (1.22-16.92) for patients with PIP 0.25 (p 0.0151). PIP score was correlated with sweat chloride test (p < 0.01). PIP score, PS status and normal/borderline sweat chloride levels could be applied to predict pancreatitis development in children with CF. ARP could lead to pancreatic insufficiency. Copyright © 2014 European Cystic Fibrosis Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Validation of an imaging based cardiovascular risk score in a Scottish population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kockelkoren, Remko; Jairam, Pushpa M; Murchison, John T; Debray, Thomas P A; Mirsadraee, Saeed; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Jong, Pim A de; van Beek, Edwin J R

    2018-01-01

    A radiological risk score that determines 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using routine care CT and patient information readily available to radiologists was previously developed. External validation in a Scottish population was performed to assess the applicability and validity of the risk score in other populations. 2915 subjects aged ≥40 years who underwent routine clinical chest CT scanning for non-cardiovascular diagnostic indications were followed up until first diagnosis of, or death from, CVD. Using a case-cohort approach, all cases and a random sample of 20% of the participant's CT examinations were visually graded for cardiovascular calcifications and cardiac diameter was measured. The radiological risk score was determined using imaging findings, age, gender, and CT indication. Performance on 5-year CVD risk prediction was assessed. 384 events occurred in 2124 subjects during a mean follow-up of 4.25 years (0-6.4 years). The risk score demonstrated reasonable performance in the studied population. Calibration showed good agreement between actual and 5-year predicted risk of CVD. The c-statistic was 0.71 (95%CI:0.67-0.75). The radiological CVD risk score performed adequately in the Scottish population offering a potential novel strategy for identifying patients at high risk for developing cardiovascular disease using routine care CT data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Web-Based Education Prior to Outpatient Orthopaedic Surgery Enhances Early Patient Satisfaction Scores: A Prospective Randomized Controlled Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Eck, Carola F; Toor, Aneet; Banffy, Michael B; Gambardella, Ralph A

    2018-01-01

    A good patient-surgeon relationship relies on adequate preoperative education and counseling. Several multimedia resources, such as web-based education tools, have become available to enhance aspects of perioperative care. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of an interactive web-based education tool on perioperative patient satisfaction scores after outpatient orthopaedic surgery. It was hypothesized that web-based education prior to outpatient orthopaedic surgery enhances patient satisfaction scores. Randomized controlled trial; Level of evidence, 1. All patients undergoing knee arthroscopy with meniscectomy, chondroplasty, or anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction or shoulder arthroscopy with rotator cuff repair were eligible for inclusion and were randomized to the study or control group. The control group received routine education by the surgeon, whereas the study group received additional web-based education. At the first postoperative visit, all patients completed the OAS CAHPS (Outpatient and Ambulatory Surgery Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems) survey. Differences in patient satisfaction scores between the study and control groups were determined with an independent t test. A total of 177 patients were included (104 [59%] males; mean age, 42 ± 14 years); 87 (49%) patients were randomized to receive additional web-based education. Total patient satisfaction score was significantly higher in the study group (97 ± 5) as compared with the control group (94 ± 8; P = .019), specifically for the OAS CAHPS core measure "recovery" (92 ± 13 vs 82 ± 23; P = .001). Age, sex, race, workers' compensation status, education level, overall health, emotional health, procedure type and complexity, and addition of a video did not influence patient satisfaction scores. Supplemental web-based patient education prior to outpatient orthopaedic surgery enhances patient satisfaction scores.

  1. Key performance indicators score (KPIs-score) based on clinical and laboratorial parameters can establish benchmarks for internal quality control in an ART program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, José G; Petersen, Claudia G; Mauri, Ana L; Vagnini, Laura D; Renzi, Adriana; Petersen, Bruna; Mattila, M C; Comar, Vanessa A; Ricci, Juliana; Dieamant, Felipe; Oliveira, João Batista A; Baruffi, Ricardo L R

    2017-06-01

    KPIs have been employed for internal quality control (IQC) in ART. However, clinical KPIs (C-KPIs) such as age, AMH and number of oocytes collected are never added to laboratory KPIs (L-KPIs), such as fertilization rate and morphological quality of the embryos for analysis, even though the final endpoint is the evaluation of clinical pregnancy rates. This paper analyzed if a KPIs-score strategy with clinical and laboratorial parameters could be used to establish benchmarks for IQC in ART cycles. In this prospective cohort study, 280 patients (36.4±4.3years) underwent ART. The total KPIs-score was obtained by the analysis of age, AMH (AMH Gen II ELISA/pre-mixing modified, Beckman Coulter Inc.), number of metaphase-II oocytes, fertilization rates and morphological quality of the embryonic lot. The total KPIs-score (C-KPIs+L-KPIs) was correlated with the presence or absence of clinical pregnancy. The relationship between the C-KPIs and L-KPIs scores was analyzed to establish quality standards, to increase the performance of clinical and laboratorial processes in ART. The logistic regression model (LRM), with respect to pregnancy and total KPIs-score (280 patients/102 clinical pregnancies), yielded an odds ratio of 1.24 (95%CI = 1.16-1.32). There was also a significant difference (pclinical pregnancies (total KPIs-score=20.4±3.7) and the group without clinical pregnancies (total KPIs-score=15.9±5). Clinical pregnancy probabilities (CPP) can be obtained using the LRM (prediction key) with the total KPIs-score as a predictor variable. The mean C-KPIs and L-KPIs scores obtained in the pregnancy group were 11.9±2.9 and 8.5±1.7, respectively. Routinely, in all cases where the C-KPIs score was ≥9, after the procedure, the L-KPIs score obtained was ≤6, a revision of the laboratory procedure was performed to assess quality standards. This total KPIs-score could set up benchmarks for clinical pregnancy. Moreover, IQC can use C-KPIs and L-KPIs scores to detect problems

  2. Evaluation of prognostic factors in liver-limited metastatic colorectal cancer: a preplanned analysis of the FIRE-1 trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giessen, C; Fischer von Weikersthal, L; Laubender, R P; Stintzing, S; Modest, D P; Schalhorn, A; Schulz, C; Heinemann, V

    2013-01-01

    Background: Liver-limited disease (LLD) denotes a specific subgroup of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients. Patients and Methods: A total of 479 patients with unresectable mCRC from an irinotecan-based randomised phase III trial were evaluated. Patients with LLD and non-LLD and hepatic resection were differentiated. Based on baseline patient characteristic, prognostic factors for hepatic resection were evaluated. Furthermore, prognostic factors for median overall survival (OS) were estimated via Cox regression in LLD patients. Results: Secondary liver resection was performed in 38 out of 479 patients (resection rate: 7.9%). Prognostic factors for hepatic resection were LLD, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), node-negative primary, alkaline phosphatase (AP) and Karnofsky performance status (PS). Median OS was significantly increased after hepatic resection (48 months), whereas OS in LLD (17 months) and non-LLD (19 months) was comparable in non-resected patients. With the inapplicability of Koehne's risk classification in LLD patients, a new score based on only the independent prognostic factors LDH and white blood cell (WBC) provided markedly improved information on the outcome. Conclusion: Patients undergoing hepatic resection showed favourable long-term survival, whereas non-resected LLD patients and non-LLD patients did not differ with regard to progression-free survival and OS. The LDH levels and WBC count were confirmed as prognostic factors and provide a useful and simple score for OS-related risk stratification also in LLD. PMID:23963138

  3. Fast index based algorithms and software for matching position specific scoring matrices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Homann Robert

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In biological sequence analysis, position specific scoring matrices (PSSMs are widely used to represent sequence motifs in nucleotide as well as amino acid sequences. Searching with PSSMs in complete genomes or large sequence databases is a common, but computationally expensive task. Results We present a new non-heuristic algorithm, called ESAsearch, to efficiently find matches of PSSMs in large databases. Our approach preprocesses the search space, e.g., a complete genome or a set of protein sequences, and builds an enhanced suffix array that is stored on file. This allows the searching of a database with a PSSM in sublinear expected time. Since ESAsearch benefits from small alphabets, we present a variant operating on sequences recoded according to a reduced alphabet. We also address the problem of non-comparable PSSM-scores by developing a method which allows the efficient computation of a matrix similarity threshold for a PSSM, given an E-value or a p-value. Our method is based on dynamic programming and, in contrast to other methods, it employs lazy evaluation of the dynamic programming matrix. We evaluated algorithm ESAsearch with nucleotide PSSMs and with amino acid PSSMs. Compared to the best previous methods, ESAsearch shows speedups of a factor between 17 and 275 for nucleotide PSSMs, and speedups up to factor 1.8 for amino acid PSSMs. Comparisons with the most widely used programs even show speedups by a factor of at least 3.8. Alphabet reduction yields an additional speedup factor of 2 on amino acid sequences compared to results achieved with the 20 symbol standard alphabet. The lazy evaluation method is also much faster than previous methods, with speedups of a factor between 3 and 330. Conclusion Our analysis of ESAsearch reveals sublinear runtime in the expected case, and linear runtime in the worst case for sequences not shorter than |A MathType@MTEF@5@5@+=feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfKttLearuWrP9MDH5MBPbIqV92Aae

  4. Measuring Biological Age via Metabonomics: The Metabolic Age Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Johannes; Friedrich, Nele; Wittfeld, Katharina; Pietzner, Maik; Budde, Kathrin; Van der Auwera, Sandra; Lohmann, Tobias; Teumer, Alexander; Völzke, Henry; Nauck, Matthias; Grabe, Hans Jörgen

    2016-02-05

    Chronological age is one of the most important risk factors for adverse clinical outcome. Still, two individuals at the same chronological age could have different biological aging states, leading to different individual risk profiles. Capturing this individual variance could constitute an even more powerful predictor enhancing prediction in age-related morbidity. Applying a nonlinear regression technique, we constructed a metabonomic measurement for biological age, the metabolic age score, based on urine data measured via (1)H NMR spectroscopy. We validated the score in two large independent population-based samples by revealing its significant associations with chronological age and age-related clinical phenotypes as well as its independent predictive value for survival over approximately 13 years of follow-up. Furthermore, the metabolic age score was prognostic for weight loss in a sample of individuals who underwent bariatric surgery. We conclude that the metabolic age score is an informative measurement of biological age with possible applications in personalized medicine.

  5. An Assessment of Statistical Process Control-Based Approaches for Charting Student Evaluation Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Xin; Wardell, Don; Verma, Rohit

    2006-01-01

    We compare three control charts for monitoring data from student evaluations of teaching (SET) with the goal of improving student satisfaction with teaching performance. The two charts that we propose are a modified "p" chart and a z-score chart. We show that these charts overcome some of the shortcomings of the more traditional charts…

  6. Difference of achalasia subtypes based on clinical symptoms, radiographic findings, and stasis scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Meillier

    2018-01-01

    Conclusions: Achalasia subtypes had similar clinical symptoms, except for increased vomiting severity in subtype i. The maximum esophageal diameter in subtype ii was significantly greater than in subtype iii. Esophageal stasis scores were similar. Thus, high-resolution esophageal manometry remains essential in assessing achalasia subtypes.

  7. Idiopathic linear IgA bullous dermatosis: prognostic factors based on a case series of 72 adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlieb, J; Ingen-Housz-Oro, S; Alexandre, M; Grootenboer-Mignot, S; Aucouturier, F; Sbidian, E; Tancrede, E; Schneider, P; Regnier, E; Picard-Dahan, C; Begon, E; Pauwels, C; Cury, K; Hüe, S; Bernardeschi, C; Ortonne, N; Caux, F; Wolkenstein, P; Chosidow, O; Prost-Squarcioni, C

    2017-07-01

    Linear IgA bullous dermatosis (LABD) is a clinically and immunologically heterogeneous, subepidermal, autoimmune bullous disease (AIBD), for which the long-term evolution is poorly described. To investigate the clinical and immunological characteristics, follow-up and prognostic factors of adult idiopathic LABD. This retrospective study, conducted in our AIBD referral centre, included adults, diagnosed between 1995 and 2012, with idiopathic LABD, defined as pure or predominant IgA deposits by direct immunofluorescence. Clinical, histological and immunological findings were collected from charts. Standard histology was systematically reviewed, and indirect immunofluorescence (IIF) on salt-split skin (SSS) and immunoblots (IBs) on amniotic membrane extracts using anti-IgA secondary antibodies were performed, when biopsies and sera obtained at diagnosis were available. Prognostic factors for complete remission (CR) were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses. Of the 72 patients included (median age 54 years), 60% had mucous membrane (MM) involvement. IgA IIF on SSS was positive for 21 of 35 patients tested; 15 had epidermal and dermal labellings. Immunoelectron microscopy performed on the biopsies of 31 patients labelled lamina lucida (LL) (26%), lamina densa (23%), anchoring-fibril zone (AFz) (19%) and LL+AFz (23%). Of the 34 IgA IBs, 22 were positive, mostly for LAD-1/LABD97 (44%) and full-length BP180 (33%). The median follow-up was 39 months. Overall, 24 patients (36%) achieved sustained CR, 19 (29%) relapsed and 35% had chronic disease. CR was significantly associated with age > 70 years or no MM involvement. No prognostic immunological factor was identified. Patients with LABD who are < 70 years old and have MM involvement are at risk for chronic evolution. © 2017 British Association of Dermatologists.

  8. Reliable change indices and standardized regression-based change score norms for evaluating neuropsychological change in children with epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, Robyn M; Lineweaver, Tara T; Ferguson, Lisa; Haut, Jennifer S

    2015-06-01

    Reliable change indices (RCIs) and standardized regression-based (SRB) change score norms permit evaluation of meaningful changes in test scores following treatment interventions, like epilepsy surgery, while accounting for test-retest reliability, practice effects, score fluctuations due to error, and relevant clinical and demographic factors. Although these methods are frequently used to assess cognitive change after epilepsy surgery in adults, they have not been widely applied to examine cognitive change in children with epilepsy. The goal of the current study was to develop RCIs and SRB change score norms for use in children with epilepsy. Sixty-three children with epilepsy (age range: 6-16; M=10.19, SD=2.58) underwent comprehensive neuropsychological evaluations at two time points an average of 12 months apart. Practice effect-adjusted RCIs and SRB change score norms were calculated for all cognitive measures in the battery. Practice effects were quite variable across the neuropsychological measures, with the greatest differences observed among older children, particularly on the Children's Memory Scale and Wisconsin Card Sorting Test. There was also notable variability in test-retest reliabilities across measures in the battery, with coefficients ranging from 0.14 to 0.92. Reliable change indices and SRB change score norms for use in assessing meaningful cognitive change in children following epilepsy surgery are provided for measures with reliability coefficients above 0.50. This is the first study to provide RCIs and SRB change score norms for a comprehensive neuropsychological battery based on a large sample of children with epilepsy. Tables to aid in evaluating cognitive changes in children who have undergone epilepsy surgery are provided for clinical use. An Excel sheet to perform all relevant calculations is also available to interested clinicians or researchers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Prognostic value and importance of surgery combined with postoperative radiotherapy for oral and oropharyngeal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maciejewski, A.

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to evaluate the efficacy of surgery for patients with oral cavity or oropharyngeal cancer, and is impact on the final results of treatment combined with postoperative radiotherapy. Furthermore, predictive and prognostic value of clinical and histopatological postoperative factors were analysed, and estimation of clinical applicability of modified scale for risk of postoperative local and/or nodal recurrence according to Peters was checked. Material includes 218 cases of the advanced oral cavity or oropharyngeal cancer. All data were subdivided into 4 groups depending on treatment strategy. For the analysis of the treatment efficacy (overall and disease-free survival) many predictive and prognostic factors have been considered. Despite of multivariate logistic regression analysis of these factors, the risk of local recurrence was related to the results of combined treatment based on the modified numerical risk scale adapted from Peters. The risk value is the sum of scores given to individual prognostic factors. Time interval between surgery and radiotherapy (TI) and overall treatment time (TTT) have been accounted for the analysis. Generally; optimal results were noted in the group B, where surgery has been combined with postoperative radiotherapy. In case of surgery combined with preoperative radiotherapy (group E) 5-year DFS was 30%, and in the case when radiotherapy was delayed and applied when recurrence after primary surgery has occurred, the 5-year DFS was not higher than 20%. Macro- and microscopic surgical radicalism has been found one of the most important and significant prognostic factors. For positive margins (m+) 5-year DFS significantly decreases to about 20%. Surgical macro- and microradicalism has an important impact (p = 0.013) on the incidence of distant metastases. The scoring system for the recurrence was based on Peters scale. The sum of the risk scores (TRRI+n) for individual prognostic factors allow to allocate

  10. Increased correlation coefficient between the written test score and tutors’ performance test scores after training of tutors for assessment of medical students during problem-based learning course in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heethal Jaiprakash

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is aimed at finding if there was a change of correlation between the written test score and tutors’ performance test scores in the assessment of medical students during a problem-based learning (PBL course in Malaysia. This is a cross-sectional observational study, conducted among 264 medical students in two groups from November 2010 to November 2012. The first group’s tutors did not receive tutor training; while the second group’s tutors were trained in the PBL process. Each group was divided into high, middle and low achievers based on their end-of-semester exam scores. PBL scores were taken which included written test scores and tutors’ performance test scores. Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated between the two kinds of scores in each group. The correlation coefficient between the written scores and tutors’ scores in group 1 was 0.099 (p<0.001 and for group 2 was 0.305 (p<0.001. The higher correlation coefficient in the group where tutors received the PBL training reinforces the importance of tutor training before their participation in the PBL course.

  11. Increased correlation coefficient between the written test score and tutors' performance test scores after training of tutors for assessment of medical students during problem-based learning course in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiprakash, Heethal; Min, Aung Ko Ko; Ghosh, Sarmishtha

    2016-03-01

    This paper is aimed at finding if there was a change of correlation between the written test score and tutors' performance test scores in the assessment of medical students during a problem-based learning (PBL) course in Malaysia. This is a cross-sectional observational study, conducted among 264 medical students in two groups from November 2010 to November 2012. The first group's tutors did not receive tutor training; while the second group's tutors were trained in the PBL process. Each group was divided into high, middle and low achievers based on their end-of-semester exam scores. PBL scores were taken which included written test scores and tutors' performance test scores. Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated between the two kinds of scores in each group. The correlation coefficient between the written scores and tutors' scores in group 1 was 0.099 (pcorrelation coefficient in the group where tutors received the PBL training reinforces the importance of tutor training before their participation in the PBL course.

  12. Nutritional risk in major abdominal surgery: NURIMAS Liver (DRKS00010923 – protocol of a prospective observational trial to evaluate the prognostic value of different nutritional scores in hepatic surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascal Probst

    Full Text Available Background: Malnutrition is commonly known as a risk factor in surgical procedures. The nutritional status seems particularly relevant to the clinical outcome of patients undergoing hepatic resection. Thus, identifying affected individuals and taking preventive therapeutic actions before surgery is an important task. However, there are only very few studies, that investigate which existing nutritional assessment score (NAS is suited best to predict the postoperative outcome in liver surgery. Objective: Nutritional Risk in Major Abdominal Surgery (NURIMAS Liver is a prospective observational trial that analyses the predictive value of 12 different NAS for postoperative morbidity and mortality after liver resection. Methods: After admission to the surgical department of the University Hospital in Heidelberg or the municipal hospital of Karlsruhe, all patients scheduled for elective liver resection will be screened for eligibility. Participants will fill in a questionnaire and undergo a physical examination in order to evaluate nutritional status according to Nutritional Risk Index, Nutritional Risk Screening Score, Subjective Global Assessment, Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool, Mini Nutritional Assessment, Short Nutritional Assessment Questionnaire, Imperial Nutritional Screening System, Imperial Nutritional Screening System II, Nutritional Risk Classification and the ESPEN malnutrition criteria. Postoperative morbidity and mortality will be tracked prospectively throughout the postoperative course. The association of malnutrition according to each score and occurrence of at least one major complication will be analysed using both chi-squared tests and a multivariable logistic regression analysis. Already established risk factors in liver surgery will be added as covariates. Discussion: NURIMAS Liver is a bicentric, prospective observational trial. The aim of this study is to investigate the predictive value of clinical nutritional assessment

  13. Prognostic Performance Metrics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This chapter presents several performance metrics for offline evaluation of prognostics algorithms. A brief overview of different methods employed for performance...

  14. Quantitative multiplex quantum dot in-situ hybridisation based gene expression profiling in tissue microarrays identifies prognostic genes in acute myeloid leukaemia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tholouli, Eleni [Department of Haematology, Manchester Royal Infirmary, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9WL (United Kingdom); MacDermott, Sarah [The Medical School, The University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9PT Manchester (United Kingdom); Hoyland, Judith [School of Biomedicine, Faculty of Medical and Human Sciences, The University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9PT Manchester (United Kingdom); Yin, John Liu [Department of Haematology, Manchester Royal Infirmary, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9WL (United Kingdom); Byers, Richard, E-mail: richard.byers@cmft.nhs.uk [School of Cancer and Enabling Sciences, Faculty of Medical and Human Sciences, The University of Manchester, Stopford Building, Oxford Road, M13 9PT Manchester (United Kingdom)

    2012-08-24

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Development of a quantitative high throughput in situ expression profiling method. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Application to a tissue microarray of 242 AML bone marrow samples. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Identification of HOXA4, HOXA9, Meis1 and DNMT3A as prognostic markers in AML. -- Abstract: Measurement and validation of microarray gene signatures in routine clinical samples is problematic and a rate limiting step in translational research. In order to facilitate measurement of microarray identified gene signatures in routine clinical tissue a novel method combining quantum dot based oligonucleotide in situ hybridisation (QD-ISH) and post-hybridisation spectral image analysis was used for multiplex in-situ transcript detection in archival bone marrow trephine samples from patients with acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). Tissue-microarrays were prepared into which white cell pellets were spiked as a standard. Tissue microarrays were made using routinely processed bone marrow trephines from 242 patients with AML. QD-ISH was performed for six candidate prognostic genes using triplex QD-ISH for DNMT1, DNMT3A, DNMT3B, and for HOXA4, HOXA9, Meis1. Scrambled oligonucleotides were used to correct for background staining followed by normalisation of expression against the expression values for the white cell pellet standard. Survival analysis demonstrated that low expression of HOXA4 was associated with poorer overall survival (p = 0.009), whilst high expression of HOXA9 (p < 0.0001), Meis1 (p = 0.005) and DNMT3A (p = 0.04) were associated with early treatment failure. These results demonstrate application of a standardised, quantitative multiplex QD-ISH method for identification of prognostic markers in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded clinical samples, facilitating measurement of gene expression signatures in routine clinical samples.

  15. Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and ...

  16. Differences in physical-fitness test scores between actively and passively recruited older adults : Consequences for norm-based classification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Heuvelen, M.J.G.; Stevens, M.; Kempen, G.I.J.M.

    This study investigated differences in physical-fitness test scores between actively and passively recruited older adults and the consequences thereof for norm-based classification of individuals. Walking endurance, grip strength, hip flexibility, balance, manual dexterity, and reaction time were

  17. Effect of Clinically Discriminating, Evidence-Based Checklist Items on the Reliability of Scores from an Internal Medicine Residency OSCE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Vijay J.; Bordage, Georges; Gierl, Mark J.; Yudkowsky, Rachel

    2014-01-01

    Objective structured clinical examinations (OSCEs) are used worldwide for summative examinations but often lack acceptable reliability. Research has shown that reliability of scores increases if OSCE checklists for medical students include only clinically relevant items. Also, checklists are often missing evidence-based items that high-achieving…

  18. Evaluating score- and feature-based likelihood ratio models for multivariate continuous data: applied to forensic MDMA comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolck, A.; Ni, H.; Lopatka, M.

    2015-01-01

    Likelihood ratio (LR) models are moving into the forefront of forensic evidence evaluation as these methods are adopted by a diverse range of application areas in forensic science. We examine the fundamentally different results that can be achieved when feature- and score-based methodologies are

  19. The impact of a revised EQ-5D population scoring on preference-based utility scores in an inflammatory arthritis cohort.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Adams, Roisin

    2012-02-01

    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: It is well established that there are problems with the EQ-5D. This is due to the original scoring methods used and how negative time trade-off (TTO) values were treated. A revised scoring method has been published. This article applies this to an inflammatory arthritis cohort. The objective is to examine the impact of a revised scoring system for the EQ-5D (UK) TTO on the utility estimates and in the case of rheumatoid arthritis, to explore the impact of using different utility metrics on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) results of an economic model. METHODS: A total of 504 patients with inflammatory arthritis were rescored using revised EQ-5D scoring, which uses an episodic random utility model to deal with negative TTO values. Differences in utility scores were compared and the new mapping coefficients were obtained. These were then used in an economic model to examine the impact on the ICER. RESULTS: In rheumatoid arthritis, the overall change is less for the revised EQ-5D scoring than with the original EQ-5D (TTO) but greater than the SF-6D: EQ-5D UK -0.22 (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.30 to -0.15), revised EQ-5D UK -0.16 (95% CI -0.21 to -0.10) and SF-6D -0.08 (95% CI -0.11 to -0.05). A similar trend is seen in the psoriatic arthritis group. The economic model produced different ICERs, when different utility measures were used; EQ-5D (TTO) euro42,402, SF-6D euro111,788, and revised EQ-5D (TTO) euro57,747. CONCLUSION: In the context of inflammatory arthritis, this article demonstrates that a revised scoring for EQ-5D may have a significant impact on utility estimates and on the output of the economic model.

  20. Determination of an effective scoring function for RNA-RNA interactions with a physics-based double-iterative method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yumeng; Wen, Zeyu; Zhang, Di; Huang, Sheng-You

    2018-05-18

    RNA-RNA interactions play fundamental roles in gene and ce