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Sample records for prognostic score based

  1. Fuzzy logic-based prognostic score for outcome prediction in esophageal cancer.

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    Wang, Chang-Yu; Lee, Tsair-Fwu; Fang, Chun-Hsiung; Chou, Jyh-Horng

    2012-11-01

    Given the poor prognosis of esophageal cancer and the invasiveness of combined modality treatment, improved prognostic scoring systems are needed. We developed a fuzzy logic-based system to improve the predictive performance of a risk score based on the serum concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin in a cohort of 271 patients with esophageal cancer before radiotherapy. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were employed to validate the independent prognostic value of the fuzzy risk score. To further compare the predictive performance of the fuzzy risk score with other prognostic scoring systems, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used. Application of fuzzy logic to the serum values of CRP and albumin increased predictive performance for 1-year overall survival (AUC=0.773) compared with that of a single marker (AUC=0.743 and 0.700 for CRP and albumin, respectively), where the AUC denotes the area under curve. This fuzzy logic-based approach also performed consistently better than the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) (AUC=0.745). Thus, application of fuzzy logic to the analysis of serum markers can more accurately predict the outcome for patients with esophageal cancer.

  2. Prognostic Gleason grade grouping: data based on the modified Gleason scoring system

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    Pierorazio, Phillip M.; Walsh, Patrick C.; Partin, Alan W.; Epstein, Jonathan I.

    2014-01-01

    Objective • To investigate pathological and short-term outcomes since the most recent Gleason system modifications by the International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) in an attempt to divide the current Gleason grading system into prognostically accurate Gleason grade groups. Patients and Methods • We queried the Johns Hopkins Radical Prostatectomy Database (1982–2011), approved by the institutional review board, for men undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP) without a tertiary pattern since 2004 and identified 7869 men. • Multivariable models were created using preoperative and postoperative variables; prognostic grade group (Gleason grade ≤6; 3 + 4; 4 + 3; 8; 9–10) was among the strongest predictors of biochemical recurrence-free (BFS) survival. Results • Significant differences were noted among the Gleason grade groups at biopsy; differences were noted in the race, PSA level, clinical stage, number of positive cores at biopsy and the maximum percentage of positive cores among the Gleason grade groups at RP. • With a median (range) follow-up of 2 (1–7) years, 5-year BFS rates for men with Gleason grade ≤6, 3 + 4, 4 + 3, 8 and 9–10 tumours at biopsy were 94.6, 82.7, 65.1, 63.1 and 34.5%, respectively (P Gleason grading system for prostate carcinoma accurately categorize patients by pathological findings and short-term biochemical outcomes but, while retaining the essence of the Gleason system, there is a need for a change in its reporting to more closely reflect tumour behaviour. • We propose reporting Gleason grades, including prognostic grade groups which accurately reflect prognosis as follows: Gleason score ≤6 (prognostic grade group I); Gleason score 3+4=7 (prognostic grade group II); Gleason score 4+3=7 (prognostic grade group III); Gleason score 4+4=8 (prognostic grade group (IV); and Gleason score 9–10 (prognostic grade group (V). PMID:23464824

  3. Comparison of Myelodysplastic Syndrome Prognostic Scoring Systems

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    Bektaş, Özlen; Üner, Ayşegül; Eliaçık, Eylem; Uz, Burak; Işık, Ayşe; Etgül, Sezgin; Bozkurt, Süreyya; Haznedaroğlu, İbrahim Celalettin; Göker, Hakan; Sayınalp, Nilgün; Aksu, Salih; Demiroğlu, Haluk; Özcebe, Osman İlhami; Büyükaşık, Yahya

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) is a clonal hematopoietic stem cell disease. Patients are at risk of developing cytopenias or progression to acute myeloid leukemia. Different classifications and prognostic scoring systems have been developed. The aim of this study was to compare the different prognostic scoring systems. Materials and Methods: One hundred and one patients who were diagnosed with primary MDS in 2003-2011 in a tertiary care university hospital’s hematology department were included in the study. Results: As the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS), World Health Organization Classification-Based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS), MD Anderson Prognostic Scoring System (MPSS), and revised IPSS (IPSS-R) risk categories increased, leukemia-free survival and overall survival decreased (p<0.001). When the IPSS, WPSS, MPSS, and IPSS-R prognostic systems were compared by Cox regression analysis, the WPSS was the best in predicting leukemia-free survival (p<0.001), and the WPSS (p<0.001) and IPSS-R (p=0.037) were better in predicting overall survival. Conclusion: All 4 prognostic systems were successful in predicting overall survival and leukemia-free survival (p<0.001). The WPSS was found to be the best predictor for leukemia-free survival, while the WPSS and IPSS-R were found to be the best predictors for overall survival. PMID:26376664

  4. Comparison of Myelodysplastic Syndrome Prognostic Scoring Systems

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    Özlen Bektaş

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS is a clonal hematopoietic stem cell disease. Patients are at risk of developing cytopenias or progression to acute myeloid leukemia. Different classifications and prognostic scoring systems have been developed. The aim of this study was to compare the different prognostic scoring systems. Materials and Methods: One hundred and one patients who were diagnosed with primary MDS in 2003-2011 in a tertiary care university hospital’s hematology department were included in the study. Results: As the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS, World Health Organization Classification-Based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS, MD Anderson Prognostic Scoring System (MPSS, and revised IPSS (IPSS-R risk categories increased, leukemia-free survival and overall survival decreased (p<0.001. When the IPSS, WPSS, MPSS, and IPSS-R prognostic systems were compared by Cox regression analysis, the WPSS was the best in predicting leukemia-free survival (p<0.001, and the WPSS (p<0.001 and IPSS-R (p=0.037 were better in predicting overall survival. Conclusion: All 4 prognostic systems were successful in predicting overall survival and leukemia-free survival (p<0.001. The WPSS was found to be the best predictor for leukemia-free survival, while the WPSS and IPSS-R were found to be the best predictors for overall survival.

  5. A Survey of Attitudes towards the Clinical Application of Systemic Inflammation Based Prognostic Scores in Cancer

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    David G. Watt

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The systemic inflammatory response (SIR plays a key role in determining nutritional status and survival of patients with cancer. A number of objective scoring systems have been shown to have prognostic value; however, their application in routine clinical practice is not clear. The aim of the present survey was to examine the range of opinions internationally on the routine use of these scoring systems. Methods. An online survey was distributed to a target group consisting of individuals worldwide who have reported an interest in systemic inflammation in patients with cancer. Results. Of those invited by the survey (n=238, 65% routinely measured the SIR, mainly for research and prognostication purposes and clinically for allocation of adjuvant therapy or palliative chemotherapy. 40% reported that they currently used the Glasgow Prognostic Score/modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS/mGPS and 81% reported that a measure of systemic inflammation should be incorporated into clinical guidelines, such as the definition of cachexia. Conclusions. The majority of respondents routinely measured the SIR in patients with cancer, mainly using the GPS/mGPS for research and prognostication purposes. The majority reported that a measure of the SIR should be adopted into clinical guidelines.

  6. [Assessment of Cachexia in Head and Neck Cancer Patients Based on a Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score].

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    Matsuzuka, Takashi; Suzuki, Masahiro; Saijoh, Satoshi; Ikeda, Masakazu; Imaizumi, Mitsumasa; Nomoto, Yukio; Matsui, Takamichi; Tada, Yasuhiro; Omori, Koichi

    2016-02-01

    We retrospectively analyzed 54 patients who died of head and neck squamous cell caricinoma regarding the process and duration of cachexia using the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS). The patients were classified as having cachexia when the serum albumin level was less than 3.5 mg/dL and the C-reactive protein (CRP) level was more than 0.5 mg/dL. The number of patients with cachexia was eight (8%) at the first visit and 50 (93%) at the time of death. In the 50 patients, the median and average time of having cachexia was 59 and 95 days, respectively. Thirty-two of the 50 patients (64%) died within three months after the presence of cachexia was confirmed. In this study, the time of having cachexia was so short, then the policy of care should be converted from aggressive into supportive in patients classified as having cachexia. mGPS would be an accurate assessment tool for cachexia and ascertain the end stage of head and neck cancer patients.

  7. A comparison of the prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based scores and TNM stage in patients with gastric cancer

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    Pan QX

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Qun-Xiong Pan,* Zi-Jian Su,* Jian-Hua Zhang, Chong-Ren Wang, Shao-Ying KeDepartment of Oncosurgery, Quanzhou First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, Fujian, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workBackground: People’s Republic of China is one of the countries with the highest incidence of gastric cancer, accounting for 45% of all new gastric cancer cases in the world. Therefore, strong prognostic markers are critical for the diagnosis and survival of Chinese patients suffering from gastric cancer. Recent studies have begun to unravel the mechanisms linking the host inflammatory response to tumor growth, invasion and metastasis in gastric cancers. Based on this relationship between inflammation and cancer progression, several inflammation-based scores have been demonstrated to have prognostic value in many types of malignant solid tumors.Objective: To compare the prognostic value of inflammation-based prognostic scores and tumor node metastasis (TNM stage in patients undergoing gastric cancer resection.Methods: The inflammation-based prognostic scores were calculated for 207 patients with gastric cancer who underwent surgery. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS, neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR, platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR, prognostic nutritional index (PNI, and prognostic index (PI were analyzed. Linear trend chi-square test, likelihood ratio chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic were performed to compare the prognostic value of the selected scores and TNM stage.Results: In univariate analysis, preoperative serum C-reactive protein (P<0.001, serum albumin (P<0.001, GPS (P<0.001, PLR (P=0.002, NLR (P<0.001, PI (P<0.001, PNI (P<0.001, and TNM stage (P<0.001 were significantly associated with both overall survival and disease-free survival of patients with gastric cancer. In multivariate analysis, GPS (P=0.024, NLR (P=0.012, PI (P=0.001, TNM stage (P<0.001, and degree of

  8. Assessing calibration of prognostic risk scores.

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    Crowson, Cynthia S; Atkinson, Elizabeth J; Therneau, Terry M

    2016-08-01

    Current methods used to assess calibration are limited, particularly in the assessment of prognostic models. Methods for testing and visualizing calibration (e.g. the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration slope) have been well thought out in the binary regression setting. However, extension of these methods to Cox models is less well known and could be improved. We describe a model-based framework for the assessment of calibration in the binary setting that provides natural extensions to the survival data setting. We show that Poisson regression models can be used to easily assess calibration in prognostic models. In addition, we show that a calibration test suggested for use in survival data has poor performance. Finally, we apply these methods to the problem of external validation of a risk score developed for the general population when assessed in a special patient population (i.e. patients with particular comorbidities, such as rheumatoid arthritis). © The Author(s) 2013.

  9. Computed tomographic findings in dogs with head trauma and development of a novel prognostic computed tomography-based scoring system.

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    Chai, Orit; Peery, Dana; Bdolah-Abram, Tali; Moscovich, Efrat; Kelmer, Efrat; Klainbart, Sigal; Milgram, Joshua; Shamir, Merav H

    2017-09-01

    OBJECTIVE To characterize CT findings and outcomes in dogs with head trauma and design a prognostic scale. ANIMALS 27 dogs admitted to the Koret School Veterinary Teaching Hospital within 72 hours after traumatic head injury that underwent CT imaging of the head. PROCEDURES Data were extracted from medical records regarding dog signalment, history, physical and neurologic examination findings, and modified Glasgow coma scale scores. All CT images were retrospectively evaluated by a radiologist unaware of dog status. Short-term (10 days after trauma) and long-term (≥ 6 months after trauma) outcomes were determined, and CT findings and other variables were analyzed for associations with outcome. A prognostic CT-based scale was developed on the basis of the results. RESULTS Cranial vault fractures, parenchymal abnormalities, or both were identified via CT in 24 of 27 (89%) dogs. Three (11%) dogs had only facial bone fractures. Intracranial hemorrhage was identified in 16 (59%) dogs, cranial vault fractures in 15 (56%), midline shift in 14 (52%), lateral ventricle asymmetry in 12 (44%), and hydrocephalus in 7 (26%). Hemorrhage and ventricular asymmetry were significantly and negatively associated with short- and long-term survival, respectively. The developed 7-point prognostic scale included points for hemorrhage, midline shift or lateral ventricle asymmetry, cranial vault fracture, and depressed fracture (1 point each) and infratentorial lesion (3 points). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE The findings reported here may assist in determining prognoses for other dogs with head trauma. The developed scale may be useful for outcome assessment of dogs with head trauma; however, it must be validated before clinical application.

  10. Prognostic factors and scoring system for survival in colonic perforation.

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    Komatsu, Shuhei; Shimomatsuya, Takumi; Nakajima, Masayuki; Amaya, Hirokazu; Kobuchi, Taketsune; Shiraishi, Susumu; Konishi, Sayuri; Ono, Susumu; Maruhashi, Kazuhiro

    2005-01-01

    No ideal and generally accepted prognostic factors and scoring systems exist to determine the prognosis of peritonitis associated with colonic perforation. This study was designed to investigate prognostic factors and evaluate the various scoring systems to allow identification of high-risk patients. Between 1996 and 2003, excluding iatrogenic and trauma cases, 26 consecutive patients underwent emergency operations for colorectal perforation and were selected for this retrospective study. Several clinical factors were analyzed as possible predictive factors, and APACHE II, SOFA, MPI, and MOF scores were calculated. The overall mortality was 26.9%. Compared with the survivors, non-survivors were found more frequently in Hinchey's stage III-IV, a low preoperative marker of pH, base excess (BE), and a low postoperative marker of white blood cell count, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, and renal output (24h). According to the logistic regression model, BE was a significant independent variable. Concerning the prognostic scoring systems, an APACHE II score of 19, a SOFA score of 8, an MPI score of 30, and an MOF score of 7 or more were significantly related to poor prognosis. Preoperative BE and postoperative white blood cell count were reliable prognostic factors and early classification using prognostic scoring systems at specific points in the disease process are useful to improve our understanding of the problems involved.

  11. Impact of the degree of anemia on the outcome of patients with myelodysplastic syndrome and its integration into the WHO classification-based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS).

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    Malcovati, Luca; Della Porta, Matteo G; Strupp, Corinna; Ambaglio, Ilaria; Kuendgen, Andrea; Nachtkamp, Kathrin; Travaglino, Erica; Invernizzi, Rosangela; Pascutto, Cristiana; Lazzarino, Mario; Germing, Ulrich; Cazzola, Mario

    2011-10-01

    Anemia is an established negative prognostic factor in myelodysplastic syndromes but the relationship between its degree and clinical outcome is poorly defined. We, therefore, studied the relationship between severity of anemia and outcome in myelodysplastic syndrome patients. We studied 840 consecutive patients diagnosed with myelodysplastic syndromes at the Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy, and 504 patients seen at the Heinrich-Heine-University Hospital, Düsseldorf, Germany. Hemoglobin levels were monitored longitudinally and analyzed by means of time-dependent Cox's proportional hazards regression models. Hemoglobin levels lower than 9 g/dL in males (HR 5.56, P=0.018) and 8 g/dL in females (HR=5.35, P=0.026) were independently related to reduced overall survival, higher risk of non-leukemic death and cardiac death (Panemia, defined as hemoglobin below these thresholds, was found to be as effective as transfusion-dependency in the prognostic assessment. After integrating this definition of severe anemia into the WHO classification-based Prognostic Scoring System, time-dependent regression and landmark analyses showed that the refined model was able to identify risk groups with different survivals at any time during follow up. Accounting for severity of anemia through the WHO classification-based Prognostic Scoring System provides an objective criterion for prognostic assessment and implementation of risk-adapted treatment strategies in myelodysplastic syndrome patients.

  12. Naples Prognostic Score, Based on Nutritional and Inflammatory Status, is an Independent Predictor of Long-term Outcome in Patients Undergoing Surgery for Colorectal Cancer.

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    Galizia, Gennaro; Lieto, Eva; Auricchio, Annamaria; Cardella, Francesca; Mabilia, Andrea; Podzemny, Vlasta; Castellano, Paolo; Orditura, Michele; Napolitano, Vincenzo

    2017-12-01

    The existing scores reflecting the patient's nutritional and inflammatory status do not include all biomarkers and have been poorly studied in colorectal cancers. The purpose of this study was to assess a new prognostic tool, the Naples prognostic score, comparing it with the prognostic nutritional index, controlling nutritional status score, and systemic inflammation score. This was an analysis of patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer. The study was conducted at a university hospital. A total of 562 patients who underwent surgery for colorectal cancer in July 2004 through June 2014 and 468 patients undergoing potentially curative surgery were included. MaxStat analysis dichotomized neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio, lymphocyte:monocyte ratio, prognostic nutritional index, and the controlling nutritional status score. The Naples prognostic scores were divided into 3 groups (group 0, 1, and 2). The receiver operating characteristic curve for censored survival data compared the prognostic performance of the scoring systems. Overall survival and complication rates in all patients, as well as recurrence and disease-free survival rates in radically resected patients, were measured. The Naples prognostic score correlated positively with the other scoring systems (p < 0.001) and worsened with advanced tumor stages (p < 0.001). Patients with the worst Naples prognostic score experienced more postoperative complications (all patients, p = 0.010; radically resected patients, p = 0.026). Compared with group 0, patients in groups 1 and 2 had worse overall (group 1, HR = 2.90; group 2, HR = 8.01; p < 0.001) and disease-free survival rates (group 1, HR = 2.57; group 2, HR = 6.95; p < 0.001). Only the Naples prognostic score was an independent significant predictor of overall (HR = 2.0; p = 0.03) and disease-free survival rates (HR = 2.6; p = 0.01). The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the Naples prognostic score had the best prognostic

  13. Predicting outcome after traumatic brain injury: development of prognostic scores based on the IMPACT and the APACHE II.

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    Raj, Rahul; Siironen, Jari; Kivisaari, Riku; Hernesniemi, Juha; Skrifvars, Markus B

    2014-10-15

    Prediction models are important tools for heterogeneity adjustment in clinical trials and for the evaluation of quality of delivered care to patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). We sought to improve the predictive performance of the IMPACT (International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials) prognostic model by combining it with the APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II) for 6-month outcome prediction in patients with TBI treated in the intensive care unit. A total of 890 patients with TBI admitted to a large urban level 1 trauma center in 2009-2012 comprised the study population. The IMPACT and the APACHE II scores were combined using binary logistic regression. A randomized, split-sample technique with secondary bootstrapping was used for model development and internal validation. Model performance was assessed by discrimination (by area under the curve [AUC]), calibration, precision, and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Overall 6-month mortality was 22% and unfavorable neurological outcome 47%. The predictive power of the new combined IMPACT-APACHE II models was significantly superior, compared to the original IMPACT models (AUC, 0.81-0.82 vs. 0.84-0.85; p0.05). However, NRI showed a significant improvement in risk stratification of patients with unfavorable outcome by the IMPACT-APACHE II models, compared to the original models (NRI, 5.4-23.2%; pAPACHE II with the IMPACT, improved 6-month outcome predictive performance is achieved. This may be applicable for heterogeneity adjustment in forthcoming TBI studies.

  14. Myelodysplastic syndromes: a scoring system with prognostic significance.

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    Mufti, G J; Stevens, J R; Oscier, D G; Hamblin, T J; Machin, D

    1985-03-01

    141 patients with MDS were classified according to the FAB criteria and followed up for a period of 4-192 months. It was recognized that patients with RAEBT had a uniformly poor prognosis. However, there was a wide variation in survival among the other subgroups. A score of 1 was assigned to each of the following presenting haematological features: bone marrow blasts greater than or equal to 5%, platelets less than or equal to 100 X 10(9)/l, neutrophils less than or equal to 2.5 X 10(9)/l and Hb less than or equal to 10.0 g/dl. Therefore the score for each patient ranged between 0 and 4. There were no statistically significant differences between those patients who scored 0 or 1, or between those who scored 2 and 3. Therefore patients were put into three groups: Group A (score 0 or 1), Group B (score 2 or 3), Group C (score 4). The differences in survival between each of the three groups are highly significant (P less than 0.00001). This system further separates patients with RA, RAS, RAEB into good and bad prognostic groups. This study also confirms that deaths due to cytopenias are more common than those due to transformation to AML. The use of this scoring system in conjunction with the FAB criteria for MDS should serve as a prognostic tool on which to base treatment.

  15. Does the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) have a prognostic role in esophageal cancer?

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    Walsh, Siun M; Casey, Sarah; Kennedy, Raymond; Ravi, Narayanasamy; Reynolds, John V

    2016-06-01

    The modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS), which combines indices of decreased plasma albumin and elevated CRP, has reported independent prognostic significance in colorectal cancer, but its value in upper gastrointestinal cancer is unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic significance of mGPS in patients with operable esophageal malignancy. Patients undergoing resection with curative intent between January 2008 and June 2013 were included. The mGPS was scored as 0, 1, or 2 based on CRP(>10 mg/L) and albumin(<35g/L). The mGPS score (0 vs. 1/2 combined) was correlated with patient and tumor characteristics, and operative and oncologic outcomes. Two hundred and twenty-three patients were included. Median (range) follow-up was 21(12-70) months. The mGPS was 0 in 174 patients(78%). mGPS was significantly associated with positive nodal status(P = 0.008) and stage ≥III (P = 0.017). There was a significant improvement in overall survival in patients with mGPS = 0 (47.8 vs. 37.5 months, P = 0.014) but in multivariate analysis, only TNM-stage and nodal status were found to be independent prognostic indicators. mGPS is associated with advanced stage but has no independent prognostic significance and does not impact on operative outcomes. Consequently, this data does not support its routine application in patient selection or prognostication. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;113:732-737. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. A new prognostic scale for the early prediction of ischemic stroke recovery mainly based on traditional Chinese medicine symptoms and NIHSS score: a retrospective cohort study.

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    Cao, Ke-Gang; Fu, Cai-Hong; Li, Huan-Qin; Xin, Xi-Yan; Gao, Ying

    2015-11-16

    Ischemic stroke (IS) is a common disease, often resulting in death or disability. Previous studies on prognosis of stroke mainly focused on the baseline condition or modern expensive tests. However, the change of clinical symptoms during acute stage is considerably neglected. In our study, we aim to develop a new prognostic scale to predict the 90-day outcome of IS patients. In this retrospective cohort study, a secondary data analysis was performed on 489 patients extracted from 1046 patients of 4 hospitals. A new prognostic scale was constructed to predict the recovery of IS mainly based on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) symptoms & signs and the changes during the first 3 days of patients in the 3 TCM hospitals. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the cutoff point for prediction. In the end, the scale was used to test the outcome of IS patients in Xuanwu hospital. The new prognostic scale was composed of 8 items including age degree (OR = 3.32; 95 % CI: 1.72-6.42), history of diabetes mellitus (DM) (OR = 2.20; 95 % CI: 1.19-4.08), NIHSS score (OR = 3.08; 95 % CI: 2.16-4.40), anxiety (OR = 3.17; 95 % CI: 1.90-5.29) and irritability (OR = 4.61; 95 % CI: 1.36-15.63) on the 1st day of illness onset, change in NIHSS score (OR = 2.49; 95 % CI: 1.31-4.73), and circumrotating (OR = 7.80; 95 % CI: 1.98-30.64) and tinnitus (OR = 13.25; 95 % CI: 1.55-113.34) during the first 3 days of stroke onset. The total score of the scale was 16.5 and the cutoff point was 9.5, which means patients would have poor outcome at 90 days of stroke onset if the score was higher than 9.5. The new scale was validated on the data of Xuanwu hospital, and the value of its sensitivity, specificity and overall accuracy were 69.6 %, 83.3 % and 75.0 % respectively. The 8-item scale, mainly based on TCM symptoms, NIHSS score and their changes during the first 3 days, can predict the 90-day outcome for IS

  17. [Prognostic value of GRACE scores versus TIMI score in acute coronary syndromes].

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    Correia, Luis C L; Freitas, Rafael; Bittencourt, Ana P; Souza, Alexandre C; Almeida, Maria C; Leal, Jamile; Esteves, José Péricles

    2010-05-01

    Although the TIMI score is the one most frequently used in acute coronary syndromes (ACS) without ST-segment elevation, the GRACE score has potential prognostic superiority, as it was created based on an observational registry, part of the variables is treated in a semi-quantitative form and renal function is taken into account in its calculation. To test the hypothesis that the GRACE risk score has superior in-hospital prognostic value, when compared to the TIMI score in patients admitted with ACS. Individuals with unstable angina or myocardial infarction without ST-segment elevation, consecutively admitted at the Coronary Unit between August 2007 and January 2009, were included in the study. A total of 154 patients aged 71 +/- 13 years, of which 56% were females, with a GRACE median of 117 and a TIMI median of 3 were studied. During the hospitalization period, the incidence of events was 8.4% (12 deaths and 1 non-fatal infarction). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test applied to the GRACE score presented an chi2 of 5.3 (P = 0.72), whereas the TIMI score presented an chi2 of 1.85 (P = 0.60). Therefore, both scores presented good calibration. As for the analysis of discrimination, the GRACE score presented a C-statistics of 0.91 (95%CI= 0.86 - 0.97), significantly superior to the C-statistics of 0.69 of the TIMI score (95%CI = 0.55 - 0.84) - P = 0.02 for the difference between the scores. Regarding the prediction of hospital events in patients with ACS, the GRACE score has superior prognostic capacity when compared to the TIMI score.

  18. Primary radiotherapy or postoperative radiotherapy in patients with head and neck cancer. Comparative analysis of inflammation-based prognostic scoring systems

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    Selzer, Edgar; Grah, Anja [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Radiotherapy, Vienna (Austria); Heiduschka, Gregor; Thurnher, Dietmar [Medical University of Vienna, Otorhinolaryngology - Head and Neck Surgery, Vienna (Austria); Kornek, Gabriela [Medical University of Vienna, Medicine I - Division of Clinical Oncology, Vienna (Austria)

    2015-01-13

    Inflammation-based scoring systems have potential value in evaluating the prognosis of cancer patients; however, detailed comparative analyses in well-characterized head and neck cancer patient collectives are missing. We analyzed overall survival (OS) in locally advanced head and neck cancer patients who were treated with curative intent by primary radiotherapy (RT) alone, by RT in combination with cetuximab (RIT) or with cisplatin (RCHT), and by primary surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy (PORT). The primary RT collective (N = 170) was analyzed separately from the surgery plus RT group (N = 148). OS was estimated using the Kaplan-Meyer method. Cox proportional-hazard regression models were applied to compare the risk of death among patients stratified according to risk factors and the inflammation-based Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), the modified GPS (mGPS), the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), the platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and the prognostic index (PI). A prognostic relevance of the scoring systems for OS was observed in the primarily irradiated, but not in the PORT collective. OS was 35.5, 18.8, and 15.4 months, respectively, according to GPS 0, 1, and 2. OS according to mGPS 0-2 was identical. The PLR scoring system was not of prognostic relevance, while OS was 27.3 months in the NLR 0 group and 17.3 months in the NLR 1 group. OS was 35.5 months in PI 0, 16.1 months in PI 1, and 22.6 months in PI 2. GPS/mGPS scoring systems are able to discriminate between three risk groups in primarily, but not postoperatively irradiated locally advanced head and neck cancer patients. (orig.) [German] Entzuendungsbasierte Bewertungssysteme haben eine potenzielle Bedeutung fuer die Beurteilung der Prognose von Krebspatienten. Derzeit fehlen jedoch ausreichend detailliert durchgefuehrte Analysen in Kollektiven von Patienten mit Kopf-Hals-Tumoren. Untersucht wurde das Gesamtueberleben (''overall survival'', OS) von Patienten mit lokal

  19. Predicting Acute Pancreatitis Severity: Comparison of Prognostic Scores

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    Simoes, Marco; Alves, Patricia; Esperto, Helder; Canha, Catarina; Meira, Elisa; Ferreira, Erica; Gomes, Manuel; Fonseca, Isabel; Barbosa, Benilde; Costa, Jose Nascimento

    2011-01-01

    Background Acute pancreatitis has a broad clinical spectrum, from mild illness to multiple organ failure and death. Prognostic scores have been developed or adapted to predict disease severity. This study aimed to compare the prognostic scores according to sensitivity and specificity, receiver operating characteristic curves and area under the curve. Statistical correlation with disease severity, length of hospital stay, mortality and complication rates. Methods Retrospective analysis of the ...

  20. A simple prognostic scoring system for typhoid ileal perforation peritonitis.

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    Singh, Hemant; Mishra, Arpan; Sharma, Dhananjaya; Somashekar, Uday

    2010-10-01

    The increasing awareness of the worse than expected outcome after typhoid ileal perforation (TIP) prompted us to prospectively prognosticate patients with the help of the Jabalpur prognostic score (JPS), a simplified scoring system for peptic perforation peritonitis (PPP). Eighty-two consecutive patients with TIP were studied from May 2005 to August 2008 in the Department of Surgery, NSCB Government Medical College, Jabalpur (MP), India. Six parameters used in the JPS were recorded: age, heart rate, mean blood pressure, serum creatinine, any co-morbid illness and perforation-operation interval. JPS correlated with morbidity and mortality in TIP patients and, as the score increased, so did the morbidity and mortality. Survivors had a significantly lower mean score (3.86 ± 2.23) than non-survivors (7.94 ± 3.6; P PPP patients. JPS can be easily modified for TIP (JPS-TIP) and can be easily used for its prognostication.

  1. Propensity Score Matching within Prognostic Strata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelcey, Ben

    2013-01-01

    A central issue in nonexperimental studies is identifying comparable individuals to remove selection bias. One common way to address this selection bias is through propensity score (PS) matching. PS methods use a model of the treatment assignment to reduce the dimensionality of the covariate space and identify comparable individuals. parallel to…

  2. Prognostic Value of TIMI Score versus GRACE Score in ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

    OpenAIRE

    Correia, Luis C. L.; Guilherme Garcia; Felipe Kalil; Felipe Ferreira; Manuela Carvalhal; Ruan Oliveira; André Silva; Isis Vasconcelos; Caio Henri; Márcia Noya-Rabelo

    2014-01-01

    Background: The TIMI Score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) was created and validated specifically for this clinical scenario, while the GRACE score is generic to any type of acute coronary syndrome. Objective: Between TIMI and GRACE scores, identify the one of better prognostic performance in patients with STEMI. Methods: We included 152 individuals consecutively admitted for STEMI. The TIMI and GRACE scores were tested for their discriminatory ability (C-stati...

  3. Decreased Prognostic Value of International Prognostic Score in Chinese Advanced Hodgkin Lymphoma Patients Treated in the Contemporary Era

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin Wang

    2016-01-01

    Conclusions: The IPS has decreased the prognostic value in Chinese advanced HL patients treated in the contemporary era. More prognostic factors are needed to supplement this original scoring system so as to identify different risk populations more accurately.

  4. Thai venous stroke prognostic score: TV-SPSS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poungvarin, Niphon; Prayoonwiwat, Naraporn; Ratanakorn, Disya; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tassanee; Suwanwela, Nijasri; Phanthumchinda, Kamman; Tiamkoa, Somsak; Chankrachang, Siwaporn; Nidhinandana, Samart; Laptikultham, Somsak; Limsoontarakul, Sansern; Udomphanthuruk, Suthipol

    2009-11-01

    Prognosis of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) has never been studied in Thailand. A simple prognostic score to predict poor prognosis of CVST has also never been reported. The authors are aiming to establish a simple and reliable prognostic score for this condition. The medical records of CVST patients from eight neurological training centers in Thailand who received between April 1993 and September 2005 were reviewed as part of this retrospective study. Clinical features included headache, seizure, stroke risk factors, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), blood pressure on arrival, papilledema, hemiparesis, meningeal irritation sign, location of occluded venous sinuses, hemorrhagic infarction, cerebrospinal fluid opening pressure, treatment options, length of stay, and other complications were analyzed to determine the outcome using modified Rankin scale (mRS). Poor prognosis (defined as mRS of 3-6) was determined on the discharge date. One hundred ninety four patients' records, 127 females (65.5%) and mean age of 36.6 +/- 14.4 years, were analyzed Fifty-one patients (26.3%) were in the poor outcome group (mRS 3-6). Overall mortality was 8.4%. Univariate analysis and then multivariate analysis using SPSS version 11.5 revealed only four statistically significant predictors influencing outcome of CVST They were underlying malignancy, low GCS, presence of hemorrhagic infarction (for poor outcome), and involvement of lateral sinus (for good outcome). Thai venous stroke prognostic score (TV-SPSS) was derived from these four factors using a multiple logistic model. A simple and pragmatic prognostic score for CVST outcome has been developed with high sensitivity (93%), yet low specificity (33%). The next study should focus on the validation of this score in other prospective populations.

  5. Integrative prognostic risk score in acute myeloid leukemia with normal karyotype

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Damm, Frederik; Heuser, Michael; Morgan, Helen; Wagner, Katharina; Görlich, Kerstin; Großhennig, Anika; Hamwi, Iyas; Thol, Felicitas; Surdziel, Ewa; Fiedler, Walter; Lübbert, Michael; Kanz, Lothar; Reuter, Christoph; Heil, Gerhard; Delwel, Ruud; Löwenberg, Bob; Valk, Peter; Krauter, J; Ganser, Arnold

    2011-01-01

    .... Integrative prognostic risk score (IPRS) was modeled in 181 patients based on age, white blood cell count, mutation status of NPM1, FLT3-ITD, CEBPA, single nucleotide polymorphism rs16754, and expression levels of BAALC, ERG, MN1, and WT1...

  6. The Basilar Artery on Computed Tomography Angiography Prognostic Score for Basilar Artery Occlusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alemseged, Fana; Shah, Darshan G; Diomedi, Marina; Sallustio, Fabrizio; Bivard, Andrew; Sharma, Gagan; Mitchell, Peter J; Dowling, Richard J; Bush, Steven; Yan, Bernard; Caltagirone, Carlo; Floris, Roberto; Parsons, Mark W; Levi, Christopher R; Davis, Stephen M; Campbell, Bruce C V

    2017-03-01

    Basilar artery occlusion is associated with high risk of disability and mortality. This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of a new radiological score: the Basilar Artery on Computed Tomography Angiography (BATMAN) score. A retrospective analysis of consecutive stroke patients with basilar artery occlusion diagnosed on computed tomographic angiography was performed. BATMAN score is a 10-point computed tomographic angiography-based grading system which incorporates thrombus burden and the presence of collaterals. Reliability was assessed with intraclass coefficient correlation. Good outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale score of ≤3 at 3 months and successful reperfusion as thrombolysis in cerebral infarction 2b-3. BATMAN score was externally validated and compared with the Posterior Circulation Collateral score. The derivation cohort included 83 patients with 41 in the validation cohort. In receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, BATMAN score had an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7-0.9) in derivation cohort and an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.6-0.9) in validation cohort. In logistic regression adjusted for age and clinical severity, BATMAN score of BATMAN score of BATMAN score had greater accuracy compared with Posterior Circulation Collateral score ( P =0.04). The addition of collateral quality to clot burden in BATMAN score seems to improve prognostic accuracy in basilar artery occlusion patients. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  7. Distributed Prognostics Based on Structural Model Decomposition

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within systems health management, prognostics focuses on predicting the remaining useful life of a system. In the model-based prognostics paradigm, physics-based...

  8. Prognostic value of TIMI score versus GRACE score in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Luis C L; Garcia, Guilherme; Kalil, Felipe; Ferreira, Felipe; Carvalhal, Manuela; Oliveira, Ruan; Silva, André; Vasconcelos, Isis; Henri, Caio; Noya-Rabelo, Márcia

    2014-08-01

    The TIMI Score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) was created and validated specifically for this clinical scenario, while the GRACE score is generic to any type of acute coronary syndrome. Between TIMI and GRACE scores, identify the one of better prognostic performance in patients with STEMI. We included 152 individuals consecutively admitted for STEMI. The TIMI and GRACE scores were tested for their discriminatory ability (C-statistics) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow) in relation to hospital death. The TIMI score showed equal distribution of patients in the ranges of low, intermediate and high risk (39 %, 27 % and 34 %, respectively), as opposed to the GRACE Score that showed predominant distribution at low risk (80 %, 13 % and 7%, respectively). Case-fatality was 11%. The C-statistics of the TIMI score was 0.87 (95%CI = 0.76 to 0.98), similar to GRACE (0.87, 95%CI = 0.75 to 0.99) - p = 0.71. The TIMI score showed satisfactory calibration represented by χ2 = 1.4 (p = 0.92), well above the calibration of the GRACE score, which showed χ2 = 14 (p = 0.08). This calibration is reflected in the expected incidence ranges for low, intermediate and high risk, according to the TIMI score (0 %, 4.9 % and 25 %, respectively), differently to GRACE (2.4%, 25% and 73%), which featured middle range incidence inappropriately. Although the scores show similar discriminatory capacity for hospital death, the TIMI score had better calibration than GRACE. These findings need to be validated populations of different risk profiles.

  9. Prognostic Value of TIMI Score versus GRACE Score in ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis C. L. Correia

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: The TIMI Score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI was created and validated specifically for this clinical scenario, while the GRACE score is generic to any type of acute coronary syndrome. Objective: Between TIMI and GRACE scores, identify the one of better prognostic performance in patients with STEMI. Methods: We included 152 individuals consecutively admitted for STEMI. The TIMI and GRACE scores were tested for their discriminatory ability (C-statistics and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow in relation to hospital death. Results: The TIMI score showed equal distribution of patients in the ranges of low, intermediate and high risk (39 %, 27 % and 34 %, respectively, as opposed to the GRACE Score that showed predominant distribution at low risk (80 %, 13 % and 7%, respectively. Case-fatality was 11%. The C-statistics of the TIMI score was 0.87 (95%CI = 0.76 to 0.98, similar to GRACE (0.87, 95%CI = 0.75 to 0.99 - p = 0.71. The TIMI score showed satisfactory calibration represented by χ2 = 1.4 (p = 0.92, well above the calibration of the GRACE score, which showed χ2 = 14 (p = 0.08. This calibration is reflected in the expected incidence ranges for low, intermediate and high risk, according to the TIMI score (0 %, 4.9 % and 25 %, respectively, differently to GRACE (2.4%, 25% and 73%, which featured middle range incidence inappropriately. Conclusion: Although the scores show similar discriminatory capacity for hospital death, the TIMI score had better calibration than GRACE. These findings need to be validated populations of different risk profiles.

  10. Prognostic Value of Gai′s Plaque Score and Agatston Coronary Artery Calcium Score for Functionally Significant Coronary Artery Stenosis

    OpenAIRE

    Chuang Zhang; Shuang Yang; Lu-Yue Gai; Zhi-Qi Han; Qian Xin; Xiao-Bo Yang; Jun-Jie Yang; Qin-Hua Jin

    2016-01-01

    Background: The prognostic values of the coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) score for predicting future cardiovascular events have been previously demonstrated in numerous studies. However, few studies have used the rich information available from CCTA to detect functionally significant coronary lesions. We sought to compare the prognostic values of Gai's plaque score and the coronary artery calcium score (CACS) of CCTA for predicting functionally significant coronary lesions, us...

  11. Prediction of surgical outcome in compressive cervical myelopathy: A novel clinicoradiological prognostic score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rishi Anil Aggarwal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Preoperative severity of myelopathy, age, and duration of symptoms have been shown to be highly predictive of the outcome in compressive cervical myelopathy (CCM. The role of radiological parameters is still controversial. Aims: Define the prognostic factors in CCM and formulate a prognostic score to predict the outcome following surgery in CCM. Settings and Design: Retrospective. Materials and Methods: This study included 78 consecutive patients with CCM treated surgically. The modified Japanese Orthopaedic Association (mJOA scale was used to quantify severity of myelopathy at admission and at 12-month follow-up. The outcome was defined as "good" if the patient had mJOA score ≥16 and "poor" if the score was <16. Age, sex, duration of symptoms, comorbidities, intrinsic hand muscle wasting (IHMW, diagnosis, surgical technique, Torg ratio, instability on dynamic radiographs, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI signal intensity changes were assessed. Statistics: Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS (version 20.0 was used for statistical analysis. The association was assessed amongst variables using logistic regression analysis. Parameters having a statistically significant correlation with the outcome were included in formulating a prognostic score. Results: Severity of myelopathy, IHMW, age, duration, diabetes, and instability on radiographs were predictive of the outcome with a P value <0.01. Genders, diagnosis, surgical procedure, Torg ratio, and intensity changes on MRI were not significantly related to the outcome. A 8-point scoring system was devised incorporating the significant clinicoradiological parameters, and it was found that nearly all patients (97.82% with a score below 5 had good outcome and all patients (100% with a score above 5 had poor outcome. The outcome is difficult to predict with a score of 5. Conclusions: Clinical parameters are better predictors of the outcome as compared to radiological findings

  12. Prognostic scoring system for peripheral nerve repair in the upper extremity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galanakos, Spyridon P; Zoubos, Aristides B; Mourouzis, Iordanis; Ignatiadis, Ioannis; Bot, Arjan G J; Soucacos, Panayotis N

    2013-02-01

    So far, predictive models with individualized estimates of prognosis for patients with peripheral nerve injuries are lacking. Our group has previously shown the prognostic value of a standardized scoring system by examining the functional outcome after acute, sharp complete laceration and repair of median and/or ulnar nerves at various levels in the forearm. In the present study, we further explore the potential mathematical model in order to devise an effective prognostic scoring system. We retrospectively collected medical record data of 73 cases with a peripheral nerve injury in the upper extremity in order to estimate which patients would return to work, and what time was necessary to return to the pre-injury work. Postoperative assessment followed the protocol described by Rosén and Lundborg. We found that return to pre-injury work can be predicted with high sensitivity (100%) and specificity (95%) using the total numerical score of the Rosén and Lundborg protocol at the third follow-up interval (TS3) as well as the difference between the TS3 and the total score at second follow-up interval (TS2). In addition, the factors age and type of injured nerve (median, ulnar, or combined) can determine the time of return to work based on a mathematical model. This prognostic protocol can be a useful tool to provide information about the functional and social prospects of the patients with these types of injuries. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Validation of the prognostic value of histologic scoring systems in primary sclerosing cholangitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Vries, Elisabeth M G; de Krijger, Manon; Färkkilä, Martti

    2017-01-01

    Histologic scoring systems specific for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are not validated. We recently determined the applicability and prognostic value of three histological scoring systems in a single PSC cohort. The aim of this study was to validate their prognostic use and reproducibility...

  14. A combined pulmonary function and emphysema score prognostic index for staging in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutou, Afroditi K; Nair, Arjun; Douraghi-Zadeh, Dariush; Sandhu, Ranbir; Hansell, David M; Wells, Athol U; Polkey, Michael I; Hopkinson, Nicholas S

    2014-01-01

    Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is characterized by high morbidity and mortality. Lung computed tomography parameters, individually or as part of a composite index, may provide more prognostic information than pulmonary function tests alone. To investigate the prognostic value of emphysema score and pulmonary artery measurements compared with lung function parameters in COPD and construct a prognostic index using a contingent staging approach. Predictors of mortality were assessed in COPD outpatients whose lung computed tomography, spirometry, lung volumes and gas transfer data were collected prospectively in a clinical database. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis models with bootstrap techniques were used. 169 patients were included (59.8% male, 61.1 years old; Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second % predicted: 40.5±19.2). 20.1% died; mean survival was 115.4 months. Age (HR = 1.098, 95% Cl = 1.04-1.252) and emphysema score (HR = 1.034, 95% CI = 1.007-1.07) were the only independent predictors of mortality. Pulmonary artery dimensions were not associated with survival. An emphysema score of 55% was chosen as the optimal threshold and 30% and 65% as suboptimals. Where emphysema score was between 30% and 65% (intermediate risk) the optimal lung volume threshold, a functional residual capacity of 210% predicted, was applied. This contingent staging approach separated patients with an intermediate risk based on emphysema score alone into high risk (Functional Residual Capacity ≥210% predicted) or low risk (Functional Residual Capacity Emphysema score-Functional Residual Capacity index might provide a better separation of high and low risk patients with COPD, than other individual predictors alone.

  15. Validation of a prognostic score for early mortality in severe head injury cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez, Pedro A; de-la-Cruz, Javier; Lora, David; Jiménez-Roldán, Luis; Rodríguez-Boto, Gregorio; Sarabia, Rosario; Sahuquillo, Juan; Lastra, Roberto; Morera, Jesus; Lazo, Eglis; Dominguez, Jaime; Ibañez, Javier; Brell, Marta; de-la-Lama, Adolfo; Lobato, Ramiro D; Lagares, Alfonso

    2014-12-01

    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) represents a large health and economic burden. Because of the inability of previous randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on TBI to demonstrate the expected benefit of reducing unfavorable outcomes, the IMPACT (International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI) and CRASH (Corticosteroid Randomisation After Significant Head Injury) studies provided new methods for performing prognostic studies of TBI. This study aimed to develop and externally validate a prognostic model for early death (within 48 hours). The secondary aim was to identify patients who were more likely to succumb to an early death to limit their inclusion in RCTs and to improve the efficiency of RCTs. The derivation cohort was recruited at 1 center, Hospital 12 de Octubre, Madrid (1990-2003, 925 patients). The validation cohort was recruited in 2004-2006 from 7 study centers (374 patients). The eligible patients had suffered closed severe TBIs. The study outcome was early death (within 48 hours post-TBI). The predictors were selected using logistic regression modeling with bootstrapping techniques, and a penalized reduction was used. A risk score was developed based on the regression coefficients of the variables included in the final model. In the validation set, the final model showed a predictive ability of 50% (Nagelkerke R(2)), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 89% and an acceptable calibration (goodness-of-fit test, p = 0.32). The final model included 7 variables, and it was used to develop a risk score with a range from 0 to 20 points. Age provided 0, 1, 2, or 3 points depending on the age group; motor score provided 0 points, 2 (untestable), or 3 (no response); pupillary reactivity, 0, 2 (1 pupil reacted), or 6 (no pupil reacted); shock, 0 (no) or 2 (yes); subarachnoid hemorrhage, 0 or 1 (severe deposit); cisternal status, 0 or 3 (compressed/absent); and epidural hematoma, 0 (yes) or 2 (no). Based on the risk

  16. Prognostic discrimination based on the EUTOS long-term survival score within the International Registry for Chronic Myeloid Leukemia in children and adolescents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Millot, Frédéric; Guilhot, Joëlle; Suttorp, Meinolf

    2017-01-01

    The EUTOS Long-Term Survival score was tested in 350 children with chronic myeloid leukemia in first chronic phase treated with imatinib and registered in the International Registry for Childhood Chronic Myeloid Leukemia. With a median follow up of 3 years (range, 1 month to 6 years) progression ...

  17. A new Leukemia Prognostic Scoring System for refractory/relapsed adult acute myelogeneous leukaemia patients: a GOELAMS study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevallier, P; Labopin, M; Turlure, P; Prebet, T; Pigneux, A; Hunault, M; Filanovsky, K; Cornillet-Lefebvre, P; Luquet, I; Lode, L; Richebourg, S; Blanchet, O; Gachard, N; Vey, N; Ifrah, N; Milpied, N; Harousseau, J-L; Bene, M-C; Mohty, M; Delaunay, J

    2011-06-01

    A simplified prognostic score is presented based on the multivariate analysis of 138 refractory/relapsed acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) patients (median age 55 years, range: 19-70) receiving a combination of intensive chemotherapy+Gemtuzumab as salvage regimen. Overall, 2-year event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) were 29±4% and 36±4%, respectively. Disease status (relapse Leukemia Prognostic Scoring System was then validated on an independent cohort of 111 refractory/relapsed AML patients. This new simplified prognostic score, using three clinical and biological parameters routinely applied, allow to discriminate around two third of the patients who should benefit from a salvage intensive regimen in the setting of refractory/relapsed AML patients. The other one third of the patients should receive investigational therapy.

  18. Comparison of scores for bimodality of gene expression distributions and genome-wide evaluation of the prognostic relevance of high-scoring genes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background A major goal of the analysis of high-dimensional RNA expression data from tumor tissue is to identify prognostic signatures for discriminating patient subgroups. For this purpose genome-wide identification of bimodally expressed genes from gene array data is relevant because distinguishability of high and low expression groups is easier compared to genes with unimodal expression distributions. Recently, several methods for the identification of genes with bimodal distributions have been introduced. A straightforward approach is to cluster the expression values and score the distance between the two distributions. Other scores directly measure properties of the distribution. The kurtosis, e.g., measures divergence from a normal distribution. An alternative is the outlier-sum statistic that identifies genes with extremely high or low expression values in a subset of the samples. Results We compare and discuss scores for bimodality for expression data. For the genome-wide identification of bimodal genes we apply all scores to expression data from 194 patients with node-negative breast cancer. Further, we present the first comprehensive genome-wide evaluation of the prognostic relevance of bimodal genes. We first rank genes according to bimodality scores and define two patient subgroups based on expression values. Then we assess the prognostic significance of the top ranking bimodal genes by comparing the survival functions of the two patient subgroups. We also evaluate the global association between the bimodal shape of expression distributions and survival times with an enrichment type analysis. Various cluster-based methods lead to a significant overrepresentation of prognostic genes. A striking result is obtained with the outlier-sum statistic (p genes with heavy tails generate subgroups of patients with different prognosis. Conclusions Genes with high bimodality scores are promising candidates for defining prognostic patient subgroups from expression

  19. Improved risk stratification by the integration of the revised international prognostic scoring system with the myelodysplastic syndromes comorbidity index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Spronsen, M F; Ossenkoppele, G J; Holman, R; van de Loosdrecht, A A

    2014-12-01

    Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) comprise bone marrow failure diseases with a diverse clinical outcome. For improved risk stratification, the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) has recently been revised (IPSS-R). This single-centre study aimed to validate the IPSS-R and to evaluate prior prognostic scoring systems for MDS. We retrospectively analysed 363 patients diagnosed with MDS according to the FAB criteria between 2000 and 2012. The IPSS, MD Anderson Risk Model Score (MDAS), World Health Organisation (WHO)-classification based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS), refined WPSS (WPSS-R), IPSS-R and MDS-Comorbidity Index (MDS-CI) were applied to 222 patients considered with primary MDS following the WHO criteria and their prognostic power was investigated. According to the IPSS-R, 18 (8%), 81 (37%), 50 (23%), 43 (19%) and 30 (13%) patients were classified as very low, low, intermediate, high and very high risk with, respectively, a median overall survival of 96 (95% Confidence interval (CI) not reached), 49 (95% CI 34-64), 22 (95% CI 0-49), 19 (95% CI 11-27) and 10 (95% CI 6-13) months (pMDS-CI refined the risk stratification of MDS patients stratified according to the IPSS-R. In conclusion, accounting for the disease status by means of the IPSS-R and comorbidity through the MDS-CI considerably improves the prognostic assessment in MDS patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Prognostic ability of EndoPredict compared to research-based versions of the PAM50 risk of recurrence (ROR) scores in node-positive, estrogen receptor-positive, and HER2-negative breast cancer. A GEICAM/9906 sub-study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Miguel; Brase, Jan C; Ruiz, Amparo; Prat, Aleix; Kronenwett, Ralf; Calvo, Lourdes; Petry, Christoph; Bernard, Philip S; Ruiz-Borrego, Manuel; Weber, Karsten E; Rodriguez, César A; Alvarez, Isabel M; Segui, Miguel A; Perou, Charles M; Casas, Maribel; Carrasco, Eva; Caballero, Rosalía; Rodriguez-Lescure, Alvaro

    2016-02-01

    There are several prognostic multigene-based tests for managing breast cancer (BC), but limited data comparing them in the same cohort. We compared the prognostic performance of the EndoPredict (EP) test (standardized for pathology laboratory) with the research-based PAM50 non-standardized qRT-PCR assay in node-positive estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) and HER2-negative (HER2-) BC patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy followed by endocrine therapy (ET) in the GEICAM/9906 trial. EP and PAM50 risk of recurrence (ROR) scores [based on subtype (ROR-S) and on subtype and proliferation (ROR-P)] were compared in 536 ER+/HER2- patients. Scores combined with clinical information were evaluated: ROR-T (ROR-S, tumor size), ROR-PT (ROR-P, tumor size), and EPclin (EP, tumor size, nodal status). Patients were assigned to risk-categories according to prespecified cutoffs. Distant metastasis-free survival (MFS) was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier. ROR-S, ROR-P, and EP scores identified a low-risk group with a relative better outcome (10-year MFS: ROR-S 87 %; ROR-P 89 %; EP 93 %). There was no significant difference between tests. Predictors including clinical information showed superior prognostic performance compared to molecular scores alone (10-year MFS, low-risk group: ROR-T 88 %; ROR-PT 92 %; EPclin 100 %). The EPclin-based risk stratification achieved a significantly improved prediction of MFS compared to ROR-T, but not ROR-PT. All signatures added prognostic information to common clinical parameters. EPclin provided independent prognostic information beyond ROR-T and ROR-PT. ROR and EP can reliably predict risk of distant metastasis in node-positive ER+/HER2- BC patients treated with chemotherapy and ET. Addition of clinical parameters into risk scores improves their prognostic ability.

  1. A prognostic scoring system for arm exercise stress testing

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Xie, Yan; Xian, Hong; Chandiramani, Pooja; Bainter, Emily; Wan, Leping; Martin, 3rd, Wade H

    2016-01-01

    ...% for patients unable to perform leg exercise. Thus, our objective was to develop an arm exercise ECG stress test scoring system, analogous to the Duke Treadmill Score, for predicting outcome in these individuals...

  2. Model-Based Prognostics of Hybrid Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigle, Matthew; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Bregon, Anibal

    2015-01-01

    Model-based prognostics has become a popular approach to solving the prognostics problem. However, almost all work has focused on prognostics of systems with continuous dynamics. In this paper, we extend the model-based prognostics framework to hybrid systems models that combine both continuous and discrete dynamics. In general, most systems are hybrid in nature, including those that combine physical processes with software. We generalize the model-based prognostics formulation to hybrid systems, and describe the challenges involved. We present a general approach for modeling hybrid systems, and overview methods for solving estimation and prediction in hybrid systems. As a case study, we consider the problem of conflict (i.e., loss of separation) prediction in the National Airspace System, in which the aircraft models are hybrid dynamical systems.

  3. Age-related differences among patients with follicular lymphoma and the importance of prognostic scoring systems : analysis from a population-based non-Hodgkin's lymphoma registry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maartense, E; le Cessie, S; Kluin-Nelemans, HC; Kluin, PM; Snijder, S; Wijermans, PW; Noordijk, EM

    Background: The influence of age on the outcome of follicular non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (FL) was studied in a population-based non-Hodgkin's lymphoma registry. Patients and methods: This study comprised 214 follicular lymphoma patients. Grade I/II was considered separately from grade III FL. The data

  4. Development and validation of a prognostic score during tuberculosis treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pefura-Yone, Eric Walter; Balkissou, Adamou Dodo; Poka-Mayap, Virginie; Fatime-Abaicho, Hadja Koté; Enono-Edende, Patrick Thierry; Kengne, André Pascal

    2017-04-08

    Death under care is a major challenge for tuberculosis (TB) treatment programs. We derived and validated a simple score to predict mortality during tuberculosis treatment in high endemicity areas. We used data for patients aged ≥15 years, diagnosed and treated for tuberculosis at the Yaounde Jamot Hospital between January 2012 and December 2013. Baseline characteristics associated with mortality were investigated using logistic regressions. A simple prognosis score (CABI) was constructed with regression coefficients for predictors in the final model. Internal validation used bootstrap resampling procedures. Models discrimination was assessed using c-statistics and calibration assessed via calibration plots and the Hosmer and Lemeshwow (H-L) statistics. The optimal score was based on the Youden's index. A total of 2250 patients (men 57.2%) with a mean age of 35.8 years were included; among whom 213 deaths (cumulative incidence 9.5%) were recorded. Clinical form of tuberculosis (C), age (A, years), adjusted body mass index (B, BMI, kg/m 2 ) and status for HIV (Human immunodefiency virus) infection (I) were significant predictors in the final model (p < 0.0001) which was of the form Death risk = 1/(1 + e - (-1.3120 + 0.0474 ∗ age - 0.1866 ∗ BMI + 1.1637 (if smear negative TB) + 0.5418(if extra - pulmonary TB) + 1.3820(if HIV+)) ). The c-statistic was 0.812 in the derivation sample and 0.808 after correction for optimism. The calibration was good [H-Lχ 2  = 6.44 (p = 0.60)]. The optimal absolute risk threshold was 4.8%, corresponding to a sensitivity of 81% and specificity of 67%. The preliminary promising findings from this study require confirmation through independent external validation studies. If confirmed, the model derived could facilitate the stratification of TB patients for mortality risk and implementation of additional monitoring and management measures in vulnerable patients.

  5. Prognostic Value of Gai's Plaque Score and Agatston Coronary Artery Calcium Score for Functionally Significant Coronary Artery Stenosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chuang; Yang, Shuang; Gai, Lu-Yue; Han, Zhi-Qi; Xin, Qian; Yang, Xiao-Bo; Yang, Jun-Jie; Jin, Qin-Hua

    2016-12-05

    The prognostic values of the coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) score for predicting future cardiovascular events have been previously demonstrated in numerous studies. However, few studies have used the rich information available from CCTA to detect functionally significant coronary lesions. We sought to compare the prognostic values of Gai's plaque score and the coronary artery calcium score (CACS) of CCTA for predicting functionally significant coronary lesions, using fractional flow reserve (FFR) as the gold standard. We retrospectively analyzed 107 visually assessed significant coronary lesions in 88 patients (mean age, 59.6 ± 10.2 years; 76.14% of males) who underwent CCTA, invasive coronary angiography, and invasive FFR measurement. An FFR significant coronary stenosis. Lesions were divided into two groups using an FFR cutoff value of 0.80. We compared Gai's plaque scores and CACS between the two groups and evaluated the correlations of these scores with FFR. The statistical methods included unpaired t-test, Mann-Whitney U-test, and Spearman's correlation coefficients. Coronary lesions with FFR Gai's scores than those with FFR ≥0.80. Gai's score had the strongest correlation with FFR (r = -0.48, P arteries and a single artery. Both CACS in a single artery and Gai's plaque score demonstrated a good capacity to assess functionally significant coronary artery stenosis when compared to the gold standard FFR. However, Gai's plaque score was more predictive of FFR Gai's score can be easily calculated in daily clinical practice and could be used when considering revascularization.

  6. Prognostic value of serum biomarkers in association with TIMI risk score for acute coronary syndromes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manenti, Euler R E; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Camey, Suzi Alves; Polanczyk, Carisi A

    2006-09-01

    Markers of neurohormonal activation and inflammation play a pivotal role in non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS). We hypothesized that other biochemical markers could add prognostic value on Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score to predict major cardiovascular events in patients with NSTE-ACS. In a cohort of 172 consecutive patients with NSTE-ACS, TIMI score was assessed in the first 24 h, and blood samples were collected for measurement of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, CD40 ligand, and creatinine. Major clinical outcomes (death and cardiovascular hospitalization) were accessed at 30 days and 6 months. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to identify markers significantly associated with outcomes and, based on individual coefficients, an expanded score was developed. Of 172 patients, 42% had acute myocardial infarction. The unadjusted 30-day event rate increased with age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.06), creatinine (OR = 2.4; 1.4-4.1), TIMI score (OR = 1.6; 1.2-2.2), troponin I (OR = 3.4; 1.5-7.7), total CK (OR = 2.7; 1.2-6.1), and NT-proBNP (OR = 2.9; 1.3-6.3) levels. In multivariate analysis, TIMI risk score, creatinine, and NT-proBNP remained associated with worse prognosis. Multimarker Expanded TIMI Risk Score [TIMI score + (2 X creatinine [in mg/dl]) + (3, if NT-proBNP > 400 pg/ml)] showed good accuracy for 30-day (c statistic 0.77; p score were 7, 26, and 75%, respectively (p TIMI risk score provide a better risk stratification than either test alone.

  7. Evaluation of the International Prognostic Score (IPS-7) and a Simpler Prognostic Score (IPS-3) for advanced Hodgkin lymphoma in the modern era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diefenbach, Catherine S; Li, Hailun; Hong, Fangxin; Gordon, Leo I; Fisher, Richard I; Bartlett, Nancy L; Crump, Michael; Gascoyne, Randy D; Wagner, Henry; Stiff, Patrick J; Cheson, Bruce D; Stewart, Douglas A; Kahl, Brad S; Friedberg, Jonathan W; Blum, Kristie A; Habermann, Thomas M; Tuscano, Joseph M; Hoppe, Richard T; Horning, Sandra J; Advani, Ranjana H

    2015-11-01

    The International Prognostic Score (IPS-7) is the most commonly used risk stratification tool for advanced Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), however recent studies suggest the IPS-7 is less discriminating due to improved outcomes with contemporary therapy. We evaluated the seven variables for IPS-7 recorded at study entry for 854 patients enrolled on Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 2496 trial. Univariate and multivariate Cox models were used to assess their prognostic ability for freedom from progression (FFP) and overall survival (OS). The IPS-7 remained prognostic however its prognostic range has narrowed. On multivariate analysis, two factors (age, stage) remained significant for FFP and three factors (age, stage, haemoglobin level) for OS. An alternative prognostic index, the IPS-3, was constructed using age, stage and haemoglobin level, which provided four distinct risk groups [FFP (P = 0·0001) and OS (P IPS-3 outperformed the IPS-7 on risk prediction for both FFP and OS by model fit and discrimination criteria. Using reclassification calibration, 18% of IPS-7 low risk patients were re-classified as intermediate risk and 13% of IPS-7 intermediate risk patients as low risk. For patients with advanced HL, the IPS-3 may provide a simpler and more accurate framework for risk assessment in the modern era. Validation of these findings in other large data sets is planned. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. A prognostic scoring system for arm exercise stress testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yan; Xian, Hong; Chandiramani, Pooja; Bainter, Emily; Wan, Leping; Martin, Wade H

    2016-01-01

    Arm exercise stress testing may be an equivalent or better predictor of mortality outcome than pharmacological stress imaging for the ≥50% for patients unable to perform leg exercise. Thus, our objective was to develop an arm exercise ECG stress test scoring system, analogous to the Duke Treadmill Score, for predicting outcome in these individuals. In this retrospective observational cohort study, arm exercise ECG stress tests were performed in 443 consecutive veterans aged 64.1 (11.1) years. (mean (SD)) between 1997 and 2002. From multivariate Cox models, arm exercise scores were developed for prediction of 5-year and 12-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and 5-year cardiovascular mortality or myocardial infarction (MI). Arm exercise capacity in resting metabolic equivalents (METs), 1 min heart rate recovery (HRR) and ST segment depression ≥1 mm were the stress test variables independently associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality by step-wise Cox analysis (all pArm exercise scores for the other outcome end points yielded C-statistic values of 0.77-0.79 before and 0.82-0.86 after adjustment for significant covariates versus 0.64-0.72 for best fit pharmacological myocardial perfusion imaging models in a cohort of 1730 veterans who were evaluated over the same time period. Arm exercise scores, analogous to the Duke Treadmill Score, have good power for prediction of mortality or MI in patients who cannot perform leg exercise.

  9. Model-based Prognostics under Limited Sensing

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is crucial to providing reliable condition-based maintenance decisions. To obtain accurate predictions of component life, a variety of sensors are often...

  10. Prognostic factors and a survival score for patients with metastatic spinal cord compression from colorectal cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rades, D.; Douglas, S.; Huttenlocher, S. [Luebeck Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Veninga, T. [Dr. Bernard Verbeeten Institute, Tilburg (Netherlands). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Bajrovic, A. [University Medical Center Eppendorf, Hamburg (Germany). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Rudat, V. [Saad Specialist Hospital Al-Khobar (Saudi Arabia). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Schild, S.E. [Mayo Clinic, Scottsdale, AZ (United States). Dept. of Radiation Oncology

    2012-12-15

    Background: This study aimed to identify independent prognostic factors and to create a survival score for patients with metastatic spinal cord compression (MSCC) from colorectal cancer (CRC). Patients and methods: Data from 121 patients irradiated for MSCC from CRC were retrospectively analyzed. Eleven potential prognostic factors were investigated including tumor type, age, gender, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status score (ECOG-PS), number of involved vertebrae, ambulatory status prior to radiotherapy (RT), other bone metastases, visceral metastases, interval from cancer diagnosis to RT of MSCC, time of developing motor deficits prior to RT, and the RT schedule. Results: On multivariate analysis, improved motor function was significantly associated with an ECOG-PS of 1-2 (p = 0.011) and a slower development of motor deficits (p < 0.001). Improved local control was significantly associated with absence of visceral metastases (p = 0.043) and longer-course RT (p = 0.008). Improved survival was significantly associated with an ECOG-PS of 1-2 (p < 0.001), ambulatory status (p < 0.001), absence of visceral metastases (p < 0.001), and a slower development of motor deficits (p = 0.047). These four prognostic factors were included in a survival score. The score for each factor was determined by dividing the 6-month survival rate by 10. The prognostic score represented the sum of the factor scores. Four prognostic groups were designed; the 6-month survival rates were 0% for 8-12 points, 26% for 13-18 points, 62% for 20-23 points, and 100% for 24-27 points (p < 0.001). Conclusion: This study identified several independent prognostic factors for treatment outcomes in patients irradiated for MSCC from CRC. The survival prognosis of these patients can be estimated with a new score. (orig.)

  11. Generation and validation of a prognostic score to predict outcome after re-irradiation of recurrent glioma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Combs, Stephanie E.; Welzel, Thomas; Debus, Juergen [Univ. Hospital of Heidelberg, Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Heidelberg (Germany)], E-mail: Stephanie.combs@med.uni-heidelberg.de; Edler, Lutz; Rausch, Renate [German Cancer Research Center (dkfz), Dept. of Biostatistics, Heidelberg (Germany); Wick, Wolfgang [Univ. Hospital of Heidelberg, Dept. of Neurooncology, Heidelberg (Germany)

    2013-01-15

    Re-irradiation using high-precision radiation techniques has been established within the clinical routine for patients with recurrent gliomas. In the present work, we developed a practical prognostic score to predict survival outcome after re-irradiation. Patients and methods. Fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (FSRT) was applied in 233 patients. Primary histology included glioblastoma (n = 89; 38%), WHO Grade III gliomas (n = 52; 22%) and low-grade glioma (n = 92; 40%). FSRT was applied with a median dose of 36 Gy in 2 Gy single fractions. We evaluated survival after re-irradiation as well as progression-free survival after re-irradiation; prognostic factors analyzed included age, tumor volume at re-irradiation, histology, time between initial radiotherapy and re-irradiation, age and Karnofsky Performance Score. Results. Median survival after FSRT was 8 months for glioblastoma, 20 months for anaplastic gliomas, and 24 months for recurrent low-grade patients. The strongest prognostic factors significantly impacting survival after re-irradiation were histology (p <0.0001) and age (<50 vs. ={>=}50, p < 0.0001) at diagnosis and the time between initial radiotherapy and re-irradiation {<=}12 vs. >12 months (p < 0.0001). We generated a four-class prognostic score to distinguish patients with excellent (0 points), good (1 point), moderate (2 points) and poor (3-4 points) survival after re-irradiation. The difference in outcome was highly significant (p < 0.0001). Conclusion. We generated a practical prognostic score index based on three clinically relevant factors to predict the benefit of patients from re-irradiation. This score index can be helpful in patient counseling, and for the design of further clinical trials. However, individual treatment decisions may include other patient-related factors not directly influencing outcome.

  12. Prognostic value of plasma and urine glycosaminoglycan scores in clear cell renal cell carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Gatto

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The prognosis of metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC vastly improved since the introduction of antiangiogenic targeted therapy. However, it is still unclear which biological processes underlie ccRCC aggressiveness and affect prognosis. Here, we checked whether a recently discovered systems biomarker based on plasmatic or urinary measurements of glycosaminoglycans aggregated into diagnostic scores correlated with ccRCC prognosis.Thirty-one patients with a diagnosis of ccRCC (23 metastatic were prospectively enrolled and their urine and plasma biomarker scores were correlated to progression-free survival (PFS and overall survival (OS as either a dichotomous (Low vs. High or a continuous variable in a multivariate survival analysis.The survival difference between High vs. Low-scored patients was significant in the case of urine scores (2-year PFS rate = 53.3% vs. 100%, p = 310-4 and 2-year OS rate = 73.3% vs. 100%, p = 0.0078 and in the case of OS for plasma scores (2-year PFS rate = 60% vs. 84%, p = 0.0591 and 2-year OS rate = 66.7% vs. 90%, p = 0.0206. In multivariate analysis, the urine biomarker score was an independent predictor of PFS (HR: 4.62, 95% CI: 1.66 to 12.83, p = 0.003 and OS (HR: 10.13, 95% CI: 1.80 to 57.04, p = 0.009.This is the first report on an association between plasma or urine GAG scores and the prognosis of ccRCC patients. Prospective trials validating the prognostic and predictive role of this novel systems biomarker are warranted.

  13. Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) can be a useful indicator to determine prognosis of patients with colorectal carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nozoe, Tadahiro; Matono, Rumi; Ijichi, Hideki; Ohga, Takefumi; Ezaki, Takahiro

    2014-01-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), an inflammation-based score, has been used to predict the biologic behavior of malignant tumors. The aim of the current study was to elucidate a further significance of GPS in colorectal carcinoma. Correlation of GPS and modified GPS (mGPS), which are composed of combined score provided for serum elevation of C-reactive protein and hypoalbuminemia examined before surgical treatment, with clinicopathologic features was investigated in 272 patients with colorectal carcinoma. Survival of GPS 1 patients was significantly worse than that of GPS 0 patients (P= 0.009), and survival of GPS 2 patients was significantly worse than that of GPS 1 patients (P GPS (P GPS and mGPS could classify outcome of patients with a clear stratification, and could be applied as prognostic indicators in colorectal carcinoma.

  14. Clinical gestalt versus prognostic scores for prognostication of patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quezada, Carlos Andrés; Zamarro, Celia; Gómez, Vicente; Guerassimova, Ina; Nieto, Rosa; Barbero, Esther; Chiluiza, Diana; Barrios, Deisy; Morillo, Raquel; Jiménez, David

    2017-12-21

    To determine the accuracy of clinical gestalt to identify patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE) at low-risk for short-term complications. This study included a total of 154 consecutive patients diagnosed with acute symptomatic PE in a tertiary university hospital. We compared the prognostic accuracy of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), the simplified PESI (sPESI), and clinical gestalt of 1) 2senior physicians (one with and one without experience in the management of patients with PE), 2) a fourth-year resident of Pneumology, 3) a third-year resident of Pneumology, and 4) a second-year resident of Pneumology. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality during the first month after the diagnosis of PE. Thirty-day all-cause mortality was 8.4% (13/154; 8.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1-12.8%). The PESI and clinical gestalt classified more patients as low-risk, compared to the sPESI (36.4%, 31.3% y 28.6%, respectively). There were no deaths in the sPESI low-risk category (negative predictive value 100%). Prognostic accuracy increased with increasing experience (84.6 vs. 92.3%; P=.049). The sPESI showed the best accuracy at correctly identifying low-risk patients with acute symptomatic PE. Clinical gestalt is not inferior to standardized clinical prediction rules to prognosticate patients with acute PE. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  15. Development and performance of a diagnostic/prognostic scoring system for breakthrough pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samolsky Dekel BG

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Boaz Gedaliahu Samolsky Dekel,1–3 Marco Palma,4 Maria Cristina Sorella,1–3 Alberto Gori,3 Alessio Vasarri,3 Rita Maria Melotti1–3 1Department of Medicine and Surgery Sciences, University of Bologna, 2Department of Emergency-Urgency, Bologna’s University Teaching Hospital, Policlinic S. Orsola-Malpighi, 3University of Bologna, Post Graduate School of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, 4Collegio Superiore, Istituto di Studi Superiori – ISS, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy Objectives: Variable prevalence and treatment of breakthrough pain (BTP in different clinical contexts are partially due to the lack of reliable/validated diagnostic tools with prognostic capability. We report the statistical basis and performance analysis of a novel BTP scoring system based on the naïve Bayes classifier (NBC approach and an 11-item IQ-BTP validated questionnaire. This system aims at classifying potential BTP presence in three likelihood classes: “High,” “Intermediate,” and “Low.”Methods: Out of a training set of n=120 mixed chronic pain patients, predictors associated with the BTP likelihood variables (Pearson’s χ2 and/or Fisher’s exact test were employed for the NBC planning. Adjusting the binary classification to a three–likelihood classes case enabled the building of a scoring algorithm and to retrieve the score of each predictor’s answer options and the Patient’s Global Score (PGS. The latter medians were used to establish the NBC thresholds, needed to evaluate the scoring system performance (leave-one-out cross-validation.Results: Medians of PGS in the “High,” “Intermediate,” and “Low” likelihood classes were 3.44, 1.53, and −2.84, respectively. Leading predictors for the model (based on score differences were flair frequency (∆S=1.31, duration (∆S=5.25, and predictability (∆S=1.17. Percentages of correct classification were 63.6% for the “High” and of 100.0% for either the “Intermediate” and

  16. Prognostic Utility of Cell Cycle Progression Score in Men With Prostate Cancer After Primary External Beam Radiation Therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freedland, Stephen J., E-mail: steve.freedland@duke.edu [Department of Surgery, Durham VA Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Department of Surgery (Urology), Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Department of Pathology, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Gerber, Leah [Department of Surgery, Durham VA Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Department of Surgery (Urology), Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Department of Pathology, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Reid, Julia; Welbourn, William; Tikishvili, Eliso; Park, Jimmy; Younus, Adib; Gutin, Alexander; Sangale, Zaina; Lanchbury, Jerry S. [Myriad Genetics, Inc, Salt Lake City, Utah (United States); Salama, Joseph K. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Durham VA Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Stone, Steven [Myriad Genetics, Inc, Salt Lake City, Utah (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the prognostic utility of the cell cycle progression (CCP) score, a RNA signature based on the average expression level of 31 CCP genes, for predicting biochemical recurrence (BCR) in men with prostate cancer treated with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) as their primary curative therapy. Methods and Materials: The CCP score was derived retrospectively from diagnostic biopsy specimens of men diagnosed with prostate cancer from 1991 to 2006 (n=141). All patients were treated with definitive EBRT; approximately half of the cohort was African American. Outcome was time from EBRT to BCR using the Phoenix definition. Median follow-up for patients without BCR was 4.8 years. Association with outcome was evaluated by Cox proportional hazards survival analysis and likelihood ratio tests. Results: Of 141 patients, 19 (13%) had BCR. The median CCP score for patient samples was 0.12. In univariable analysis, CCP score significantly predicted BCR (P=.0017). The hazard ratio for BCR was 2.55 for 1-unit increase in CCP score (equivalent to a doubling of gene expression). In a multivariable analysis that included Gleason score, prostate-specific antigen, percent positive cores, and androgen deprivation therapy, the hazard ratio for CCP changed only marginally and remained significant (P=.034), indicating that CCP provides prognostic information that is not provided by standard clinical parameters. With 10-year censoring, the CCP score was associated with prostate cancer-specific mortality (P=.013). There was no evidence for interaction between CCP and any clinical variable, including ethnicity. Conclusions: Among men treated with EBRT, the CCP score significantly predicted outcome and provided greater prognostic information than was available with clinical parameters. If validated in a larger cohort, CCP score could identify high-risk men undergoing EBRT who may need more aggressive therapy.

  17. Outcome prediction in gastroschisis - The gastroschisis prognostic score (GPS) revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puligandla, Pramod S; Baird, Robert; Skarsgard, Eric D; Emil, Sherif; Laberge, Jean-Martin

    2017-05-01

    The GPS enables risk stratification for gastroschisis and helps discriminate low from high morbidity groups. The purpose of this study was to revalidate GPS's characterization of a high morbidity group and to quantify relationships between the GPS and outcomes. With REB approval, complete survivor data from a national gastroschisis registry was collected. GPS bowel injury scoring was revalidated excluding the initial inception/validation cohorts (>2011). Length of stay (LOS), 1st enteral feed days (dFPO), TPN days (dTPN), and aggregate complications (COMP) were compared between low and high morbidity risk groups. Mathematical relationships between outcomes and integer increases in GPS were explored using the entire cohort (2005-present). Median (range) LOS, dPO, and dTPN for the entire cohort (n=849) was 36 (26,62), 13 (9,18), and 27 (20,46) days, respectively. High-risk patients (GPS≥2; n=80) experienced significantly worse outcomes than low risk patients (n=263). Each integer increase in GPS was associated with increases in LOS and dTPN by 16.9 and 12.7days, respectively (pGPS effectively discriminates low from high morbidity risk groups. Within the high risk group, integer increases in GPS produce quantitatively differentiated outcomes which may guide initial counseling and resource allocation. IIb. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Matching score based face recognition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boom, B.J.; Beumer, G.M.; Spreeuwers, Lieuwe Jan; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.

    2006-01-01

    Accurate face registration is of vital importance to the performance of a face recognition algorithm. We propose a new method: matching score based face registration, which searches for optimal alignment by maximizing the matching score output of a classifier as a function of the different

  19. Evaluation of Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score for Pancreatic Cancer: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imaoka, Hiroshi; Mizuno, Nobumasa; Hara, Kazuo; Hijioka, Susumu; Tajika, Masahiro; Tanaka, Tsutomu; Ishihara, Makoto; Yogi, Tatsuji; Tsutsumi, Hideharu; Fujiyoshi, Toshihisa; Sato, Takamitsu; Shimizu, Yasuhiro; Niwa, Yasumasa; Yamao, Kenji

    2016-02-01

    The modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS) is known to be useful in determining the prognosis of cancers. However, the utility of mGPS for pancreatic cancer (PC) has been examined based primarily on a surgical series of early-stage cancers. The purpose of this study was to examine the utility of mGPS for PC of all stages using a retrospective cohort design. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from a computerized database. A total of 807 patients with pathologically confirmed PC were analyzed (mGPS-0, n = 620; mGPS-1, n = 153; mGPS-2, n = 34). Median overall survival (OS) was significantly worse for the mGPS-1 group than for the mGPS-0 group (5.8 vs 15.8 months, respectively) but was comparable between the mGPS-2 and mGPS-1 groups (4.8 vs 5.8 months, respectively). After adjustment, both mGPS-1 and mGPS-2 were independent predictive factors of OS (mGPS-1: hazard ratio, 1.772; 95% confidence interval, 1.417-2.215; mGPS-2: hazard ratio, 2.033; 95% confidence interval, 1.284-3.219). Subgroup analysis showed that OS was significantly worse in the mGPS-1 and mGPS-2 groups than in the mGPS-0 group for all except the following 2 subgroups: localized disease and curative resection. The present results show that the mGPS is an independent prognostic factor in patients with PC, especially for advanced-stage disease.

  20. A New Prognostic Score Supporting Treatment Allocation for Multimodality Therapy for Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma: A Review of 12 Years' Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opitz, Isabelle; Friess, Martina; Kestenholz, Peter; Schneiter, Didier; Frauenfelder, Thomas; Nguyen-Kim, Thi Dan Linh; Seifert, Burkhardt; Hoda, Mir Alireza; Klepetko, Walter; Stahel, Rolf A; Weder, Walter

    2015-11-01

    Treatment of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) remains a clinical challenge. The aim of this study was to identify selection factors for allocation of MPM patients to multimodal therapy based on survival data from 12 years of experience. Eligible patients had MPM of all histological subtypes with clinical stage T1-3 N0-2 M0. Induction chemotherapy consisted of cisplatin/gemcitabine (cis/gem) or cisplatin/pemetrexed (cis/pem), followed by extrapleural pneumonectomy (EPP). Multivariate analysis was performed to assess independent prognosticators for overall survival (OS). A Multimodality Prognostic Score was developed based on clinical variables available before surgery. From May 1999 to August 2011, 186 MPM patients were intended to be treated with induction chemotherapy followed by EPP. Hematologic toxicity was significantly less frequent after cis/pem compared to cis/gem, but there was no difference in response or OS between the regimens. One hundred and twenty-eight patients underwent EPP with a 30-day mortality of 4.7%. Fifty-two percent of the patients received adjuvant radiotherapy. The median OS of patients undergoing EPP was significantly longer with 22 months (95% confidence interval: 20-24) when compared to 11 months (9-12) for patients treated without EPP. A prognostic score was defined considering tumor volume, histology, C-reactive protein level, and response to chemotherapy that identified patient groups not benefitting from multimodality treatment which was confirmed in an independent cohort. Patients receiving induction chemotherapy followed by EPP for MPM of all histological subtypes and irrespective of nodal status showed a median survival of 22 months. A prognostic score is proposed to help patient allocation for surgery after validation in an independent cohort.

  1. Prognostic impact of absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count ratio and prognostic score in patients with nasal-type, extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Na; Zhang, Li; Song, Hao-Lan; Zhang, Jing; Weng, Hua-Wei; Zou, Li-Qun

    2017-05-01

    Nasal-type, extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma is a heterogeneous disorder with poor prognosis, requiring risk stratification in this population. The combined value of baseline absolute lymphocyte count and absolute monocyte count provided prognostic information in some malignancies. However, the evidence requires validation in extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma. Aiming to investigate the prognostic significance of absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count ratio and absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count prognostic score for extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma, a retrospective research was carried out. A total of 264 patients with newly diagnosed extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma were analyzed in this study. The patients' absolute lymphocyte count and absolute monocyte count tested at initial diagnosis were collected. Receiver operating curve analysis showed that the optimal cut-off values for absolute lymphocyte count and absolute monocyte count were 1.0 × 10(9) and 0.5 × 10(9)L(-1), respectively, and for absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count ratio was 2.85. After a median follow-up of 27 months (range 1-87 months), the 3-year overall survival and progression-free survival was 75.4% and 67.6%, respectively. Patients with absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count ratio ≥ 2.85 had better 3-year overall survival and progression-free survival than those with absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count ratio lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count prognostic score, significant difference has been noticed in 3-year overall survival and progression-free survival (p lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count prognostic score was associated with poorer survival. The International Prognostic Index and Korean Prognostic Index were used for prognosis and showed no significant difference. When adding absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count ratio and absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte

  2. Circulating levels of GH predict mortality and complement prognostic scores in critically ill medical patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuetz, Philipp; Müller, Beat; Nusbaumer, Charly; Wieland, Melanie; Christ-Crain, Mirjam

    2009-02-01

    Circulating levels of GH are increased during critical illness and correlate with outcome in children with meningococcal sepsis. We assessed the prognostic implications of GH on admission and during follow-up in critically ill adult patients admitted to a medical intensive care unit. We measured GH, IGF1 and IGF-binding protein3 (IGFBP-3) plasma concentrations in 103 consecutive critically ill patients and compared it with two clinical severity scores (APACHE II, SAPS II). Median GH levels on admission were similar in septic (n=53) and non-septic (n=50) patients and about 7-fold increased in the 24 non-survivors as compared with survivors (9.50 (interquartile ranges (IQR) 3.53-18.40) vs 1.4 (IQR 0.63-5.04), PAPACHE II: AUC 0.71 (95% CI, 0.58-0.83), P=0.16, SAPS II: AUC 0.75 (95% CI, 0.63-0.86, P=0.36)). GH improved the prognostic accuracy of the APACHE II score to an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.66-090, P=0.04) and tended to improve the SAPS II score to an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.67-0.90, P=0.09). GH plasma concentrations on admission are independent predictors for mortality in adult critically ill patients and may complement existing risk prediction scores, namely the APACHE II and the SAPS II score.

  3. A Model-based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain...

  4. A Model-Based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain...

  5. Increased Prognostic Value of Query Amyloid Late Enhancement Score in Light-Chain Cardiac Amyloidosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Ke; Sun, Jiayu; Han, Yuchi; Liu, Hong; Yang, Dan; Li, Weihao; Wang, Jie; Cheng, Wei; Zhang, Qing; Zeng, Zhi; Chen, Yucheng

    2017-11-02

    Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) pattern is a powerful imaging biomarker for prognosis of cardiac amyloidosis. It is unknown if the query amyloid late enhancement (QALE) score in light-chain (AL) amyloidosis could provide increased prognostic value compared with LGE pattern.Methods and Results:Seventy-eight consecutive patients with AL amyloidosis underwent contrast-enhanced cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging. Patients with cardiac involvement were grouped by LGE pattern and analyzed using QALE score. Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to identify the optimal cut-off for QALE score in predicting all-cause mortality. Survival of these patients was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox regression. During a median follow-up of 34 months, 53 of 78 patients died. The optimal cut-off for QALE score to predict mortality at 12-month follow-up was 9.0. On multivariate Cox analysis, QALE score ≥9 (HR, 5.997; 95% CI: 2.665-13.497; P<0.001) and log N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (HR, 1.525; 95% CI: 1.112-2.092; P=0.009) were the only 2 independent predictors of all-cause mortality. On Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients with subendocardial LGE can be further risk stratified using QALE score ≥9. The QALE scoring system provides powerful independent prognostic value in AL cardiac amyloidosis. QALE score ≥9 has added value to differentiate prognosis in AL amyloidosis patients with a subendocardial LGE pattern.

  6. A Novel Prognostic Scoring System Using Inflammatory Response Biomarkers for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirahara, Noriyuki; Tajima, Yoshitsugu; Fujii, Yusuke; Yamamoto, Tetsu; Hyakudomi, Ryoji; Hirayama, Takanori; Taniura, Takahito; Ishitobi, Kazunari; Kidani, Akihiko; Kawabata, Yasunari

    2017-07-25

    We describe a novel scoring system, namely the inflammatory response biomarker (IRB) score. The aim of this study is to evaluate the clinical value of IRB score in patients undergoing curative resection for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). We retrospectively reviewed patients who underwent curative esophagectomy. We evaluated IRB score in both non-elderly (4), a high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (>1.6), and a low platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) (<147) were each scored as 1, and the remaining values were scored as 0; the individual scores were then summed to produce the IRB score (range 0-3). Univariate analyses demonstrated that the TNM pStage (p < 0.0001), tumor size (p = 0.002), LMR (p = 0.0057), PLR (p = 0.0328) and IRB score (p = 0.0003) were significant risk factors for a worse prognosis. On multivariate analysis, the TNM pStage (p < 0.0001) and IRB score (p = 0.0227) were independently associated with worse prognosis in overall patients. Among non-elderly patients, multivariate analyses demonstrated that the pStage (p = 0.0015) and IRB score (p = 0.0356) were independent risk factors for a worse prognosis. Among elderly patients, multivariate analysis demonstrated that the pStage (p = 0.0016), and IRB score (p = 0.0102) were independent risk factors for a worse prognosis. The present study provides evidence that the preoperative IRB score can be considered a promising independent prognostic factor of cancer-specific survival in patients undergoing curative resection for SCC, and that its predictive ability is useful in both non-elderly and elderly patients.

  7. Does C-reactive Protein Add Prognostic Value to GRACE Score in Acute Coronary Syndromes?

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    Correia, Luis Cláudio Lemos, E-mail: lccorreia@terra.com.br; Vasconcelos, Isis; Garcia, Guilherme; Kalil, Felipe; Ferreira, Felipe; Silva, André; Oliveira, Ruan; Carvalhal, Manuela; Freitas, Caio; Noya-Rabelo, Márcia Maria [Escola Bahiana de Medicina e Saúde Pública, Salvador, BA (Brazil); Hospital São Rafael, Salvador, BA (Brazil)

    2014-05-15

    The incremental prognostic value of plasma levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) in relation to GRACE score has not been established in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) with non-ST segment elevation. To test the hypothesis that CRP measurements at admission increases the prognostic value of GRACE score in patients with ACS. A total of 290 subjects, consecutively admitted for ACS, with plasma material obtained upon admission CRP measurement using a high-sensitivity method (nephelometry) were studied. Cardiovascular outcomes during hospitalization were defined by the combination of death, nonfatal myocardial infarction or nonfatal refractory angina. The incidence of cardiovascular events during hospitalization was 15% (18 deaths, 11 myocardial infarctions, 13 angina episodes) with CRP showing C-statistics of 0.60 (95% CI = 0.51-0.70, p = 0.034) in predicting these outcomes. After adjustment for the GRACE score, elevated CRP (defined as the best cutoff point) tended to be associated with hospital events (OR = 1.89, 95% CI = 0.92 to 3.88, p = 0.08). However, the addition of the variable elevated CRP in the GRACE model did not result in significant increase in C-statistics, which ranged from 0.705 to 0.718 (p = 0.46). Similarly, there was no significant reclassification of risk with the addition of CRP in the predictor model (net reclassification = 5.7 %, p = 0.15). Although CRP is associated with hospital outcomes, this inflammatory marker does not increase the prognostic value of the GRACE score.

  8. Risk assessment in sepsis: a new prognostication rule by APACHE II score and serum soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giamarellos-Bourboulis, Evangelos J; Norrby-Teglund, Anna; Mylona, Vassiliki; Savva, Athina; Tsangaris, Iraklis; Dimopoulou, Ioanna; Mouktaroudi, Maria; Raftogiannis, Maria; Georgitsi, Marianna; Linnér, Anna; Adamis, George; Antonopoulou, Anastasia; Apostolidou, Efterpi; Chrisofos, Michael; Katsenos, Chrisostomos; Koutelidakis, Ioannis; Kotzampassi, Katerina; Koratzanis, George; Koupetori, Marina; Kritselis, Ioannis; Lymberopoulou, Korina; Mandragos, Konstantinos; Marioli, Androniki; Sundén-Cullberg, Jonas; Mega, Anna; Prekates, Athanassios; Routsi, Christina; Gogos, Charalambos; Treutiger, Carl-Johan; Armaganidis, Apostolos; Dimopoulos, George

    2012-08-08

    Early risk assessment is the mainstay of management of patients with sepsis. APACHE II is the gold standard prognostic stratification system. A prediction rule that aimed to improve prognostication by APACHE II with the application of serum suPAR (soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor) is developed. A prospective study cohort enrolled 1914 patients with sepsis including 62.2% with sepsis and 37.8% with severe sepsis/septic shock. Serum suPAR was measured in samples drawn after diagnosis by an enzyme-immunoabsorbent assay; in 367 patients sequential measurements were performed. After ROC analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis a prediction rule for risk was developed. The rule was validated in a double-blind fashion by an independent confirmation cohort of 196 sepsis patients, predominantly severe sepsis/septic shock patients, from Sweden. Serum suPAR remained stable within survivors and non-survivors for 10 days. Regression analysis showed that APACHE II ≥ 17 and suPAR ≥ 12 ng/ml were independently associated with unfavorable outcome. Four strata of risk were identified: i) APACHE II APACHE II APACHE II ≥ 17 and suPAR APACHE II ≥ 17 and suPAR ≥ 12 ng/ml with mortality 51.7%. This prediction rule was confirmed by the Swedish cohort. A novel prediction rule with four levels of risk in sepsis based on APACHE II score and serum suPAR is proposed. Prognostication by this rule is confirmed by an independent cohort.

  9. Performance of four ischemic stroke prognostic scores in a Brazilian population

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    Gustavo W. Kuster

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective Ischemic stroke (IS prognostic scales may help clinicians in their clinical decisions. This study aimed to assess the performance of four IS prognostic scales in a Brazilian population. Method We evaluated data of IS patients admitted at Hospital Paulistano, a Joint Commission International certified primary stroke center. In-hospital mortality and modified Rankin score at discharge were defined as the outcome measures. The performance of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS, Stroke Prognostication Using Age and NIHSS (SPAN-100, Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL, and Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events (THRIVE were compared. Results Two hundred six patients with a mean ± SD age of 67.58 ± 15.5 years, being 55.3% male, were included. The four scales were significantly and independently associated functional outcome. Only THRIVE was associated with in-hospital mortality. With area under the curve THRIVE and NIHSS were the scales with better performance for functional outcome and THRIVE had the best performance for mortality. Conclusion THRIVE showed the best performance among the four scales, being the only associated with in-hospital mortality.

  10. Prognostic Utility of a New mRNA Expression Signature of Gleason Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinnott, Jennifer A; Peisch, Sam F; Tyekucheva, Svitlana; Gerke, Travis; Lis, Rosina; Rider, Jennifer R; Fiorentino, Michelangelo; Stampfer, Meir J; Mucci, Lorelei A; Loda, Massimo; Penney, Kathryn L

    2017-01-01

    Gleason score strongly predicts prostate cancer mortality; however, scoring varies among pathologists, and many men are diagnosed with intermediate-risk Gleason score 7. We previously developed a 157-gene signature for Gleason score using a limited gene panel. Using a new whole-transcriptome expression dataset, we verified the previous signature's performance and developed a new Gleason signature to improve lethal outcome prediction among men with Gleason score 7. We generated mRNA expression data from prostate tumor tissue from men in the Physicians' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (N = 404) using the Affymetrix Human Gene 1.0 ST microarray. The Prediction Analysis for Microarrays method was used to develop a signature to distinguish high (≥8) versus low (≤6) Gleason score. We evaluated the signature's ability to improve prediction of lethality among men with Gleason score 7, adjusting for 3 + 4/4 + 3 status, by quantifying the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). We identified a 30-gene signature that best distinguished Gleason score ≤6 from ≥8. The AUC to predict lethal disease among Gleason score 7 men was 0.76 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.67-0.84] compared with 0.68 (95% CI, 0.59-0.76) using 3 + 4/4 + 3 status alone (P = 0.0001). This signature was a nonsignificant (P = 0.09) improvement over our previous signature (AUC = 0.72). Our new 30-gene signature improved prediction of lethality among men with Gleason score 7. This signature can potentially become a useful prognostic tool for physicians to improve treatment decision making. Clin Cancer Res; 23(1); 81-87. ©2016 AACRSee related commentary by Yin et al., p. 6. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

  11. Bicarbonate can improve the prognostic value of the MELD score for critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cheng-Yi; Pan, Chi-Feng; Wu, Chih-Jen; Chen, Han-Hsiang; Chen, Yu-Wei

    2014-07-01

    The prognosis of critically ill patients with cirrhosis is poor. Our aim was to identify an objective variable that can improve the prognostic value of the Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in patients who have cirrhosis and are admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). This retrospective cohort study included 177 patients who had liver cirrhosis and were admitted to the ICU. Data pertaining to arterial blood gas-related parameters and other variables were obtained on the day of ICU admission. The overall ICU mortality rate was 36.2%. The bicarbonate (HCO3) level was found to be an independent predictor of ICU mortality (odds ratio, 2.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-4.8; p = 0.038). A new equation was constructed (MELD-Bicarbonate) by replacing total bilirubin by HCO3 in the original MELD score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting ICU mortality was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.69-0.84) for the MELD-Bicarbonate equation, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.65-0.81) for the MELD score, and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.63-0.80) for the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score. Bicarbonate level assessment, as an objective and reproducible laboratory test, has significant predictive value in critically ill patients with cirrhosis. In contrast, the predictive value of total bilirubin is not as prominent in this setting. The MELD-Bicarbonate equation, which included three variables (international normalized ratio, creatinine level, and HCO3 level), showed better prognostic value than the original MELD score in critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

  12. 30-Day Mortality in Acute Pulmonary Embolism: Prognostic Value of Clinical Scores and Anamnestic Features.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Gunter Bach

    Full Text Available Identification of high-risk patients with pulmonary embolism is vital. The aim of the present study was to examine clinical scores, their single items, and anamnestic features in their ability to predict 30-day mortality.A retrospective, single-center study from 06/2005 to 01/2010 was performed. Inclusion criteria were presence of pulmonary embolism, availability of patient records and 30-day follow-up. The following clinical scores were calculated: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, original and simplified pulmonary embolism severity index, Glasgow Coma Scale, and euroSCORE II.In the study group of 365 patients 39 patients (10.7% died within 30 days due to pulmonary embolism. From all examined scores and parameters the best predictor of 30-day mortality were the Glasgow Coma scale (≤ 10 and parameters of the circulatory system including presence of mechanical ventilation, arterial pH (< 7.335, and systolic blood pressure (< 99 mm Hg.Easy to ascertain circulatory parameters have the same or higher prognostic value than the clinical scores that were applied in this study. From all clinical scores studied the Glasgow Coma Scale was the most time- and cost-efficient one.

  13. Development and validation of a prognostic scoring system for patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Such, Esperanza; Germing, Ulrich; Malcovati, Luca; Cervera, José; Kuendgen, Andrea; Della Porta, Matteo G; Nomdedeu, Benet; Arenillas, Leonor; Luño, Elisa; Xicoy, Blanca; Amigo, Mari L; Valcarcel, David; Nachtkamp, Kathrin; Ambaglio, Ilaria; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Lorenzo, Ignacio; Cazzola, Mario; Sanz, Guillermo

    2013-04-11

    The natural course of chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) is highly variable but a widely accepted prognostic scoring system for patients with CMML is not available. The main aim of this study was to develop a new CMML-specific prognostic scoring system (CPSS) in a large series of 558 patients with CMML (training cohort, Spanish Group of Myelodysplastic Syndromes) and to validate it in an independent series of 274 patients (validation cohort, Heinrich Heine University Hospital, Düsseldorf, Germany, and San Matteo Hospital, Pavia, Italy). The most relevant variables for overall survival (OS) and evolution to acute myeloblastic leukemia (AML) were FAB and WHO CMML subtypes, CMML-specific cytogenetic risk classification, and red blood cell (RBC) transfusion dependency. CPSS was able to segregate patients into 4 clearly different risk groups for OS (P FAB and WHO subtypes, recognizes the importance of RBC transfusion dependency and cytogenetics, and offers a simple and powerful CPSS for accurately assessing prognosis and planning therapy in patients with CMML.

  14. Moderate precision of prognostic scoring systems in a consecutive, prospective cohort of 544 patients with metastatic spinal cord compression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morgen, Søren Schmidt; Nielsen, Dennis Hallager; Larsen, Claus Falck

    2014-01-01

    cohort of patients with metastatic spinal cord compression (MSCC). METHODS: In 2011, we conducted a prospective cohort study of 544 patients who were consecutively admitted with MSCC to one treatment facility. Patients estimated survival were assessed with the Tokuhashi Revised score and the Tomita score...... and compared to the observed survival. We assessed how precise the scoring systems predicted survival with McNemar's test. The prognostic value was illustrated with Kaplan-Meier curves, and the individual prognostic components were analyzed with Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: The mean age was 65 years...

  15. PREDICTING PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF OCULAR TRAUMA SCORE (OTS IN AN OPEN GLOBE INJURY IN TERTIARY EYE CARE HOSPITAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahul

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available AIM : To evaluate the prognostic value of OTS in open globe injuries. MATERIAL METHOD : Retrospective analysis of 77 eyes with open globe injuries was done from 01/07/2013 to 31/12/2014. Patients were assigned raw score sum based on initial V/A, and ocular findings then classified into 5 categories for predicting final visual outcome based on ocular Trauma score (OTS. RESULT : We estimated final V/A in 77 cases of open globe injuries (64.93% had raw sc ore between 65.91 (category 3, 4 Six months after the injury, 42.85% patients of categories 1 (raw score 0 - 44 achieved V/A of PL/HM as compared to 17% in OTS study. 16 patients with raw compared to OTS study. We reported comparable visual outcome with OT S study except in category 1 & 2. CONCLUSION: OTS score is valuable in triage, patient counseling and decision making for the management of ocular trauma. We recommend that OTS should be used routinely for open globe injuries as it is a simple guide

  16. Meningioma surgery in the very old-validating prognostic scoring systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konglund, Ane; Rogne, Siril G; Helseth, Eirik; Meling, Torstein R

    2013-12-01

    Several studies acknowledge a higher risk of morbidity and mortality following intracranial meningioma surgery in the elderly, yet there is no consensus with regards to risk factors. Four prognostic scoring systems have been proposed. To evaluate their usefulness, we assess the very old meningioma patients in our neuro-oncological database according to the four methods, and correlate the findings with mortality and morbidity. We retrospectively calculated scores according to the Clinical-Radiological Grading System (CRGS), the Sex, Karnofsky Performance Scale, American Society of Anesthesiology Class, Location of Tumor, and Peritumoral Edema grading system (SKALE), the Geriatric Scoring System (GSS) and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) from all patients aged 80-90 years who had primary surgery for intracranial meningiomas 2003-2013 (n = 51), and related our findings to morbidity and mortality. The mortality rates were 3.9 %, 5.9 % and 15.7 % at 30-days, 3-months and 1-year post-surgery. The rate of complications requiring surgery was 13.7 %, 5.9 % had evacuation of intracerebral hematomas and two patients (3.9 %) had surgery for intracranial infection/osteitis. 15.7 % of the patients were neurologically worsened on discharge. The patients with SKALE scores ≤ 8 had significantly increased mortality rates. The GSS, the CRGS and the CCI were not found to correlate with mortality. Retrospectively evaluating four proposed scoring systems, we find that the SKALE score reflects the mortality at 1 month and 1 year following primary surgery for intracranial meningiomas in our very old patients. It may represent a helpful adjunct to their preoperative assessment.

  17. Prognostic performance of critical care scores in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgiadou, Panagiota; Analitis, Antonis; Sbarouni, Eftihia; Voudris, Vassilis

    2016-08-01

    Critical care management of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is a major determinant of their outcome. The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic performance of four general scoring systems [Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE), Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and MultiOrgan Dysfunction (MOD) scores] in TAVI patients. Between 1 June 2008 and 30 June 2014, 75 patients (81.2 ± 6.4 years old, 36 men and 39 women) who underwent TAVI were scored during the first 24 h of their stay at the intensive care unit (ICU). The outcome measures were in-hospital and 30-day mortality and in-hospital and 30-day morbidity defined as myocardial infarction, implantation of permanent pacemaker, stroke, tamponade, major bleeding, vascular access site complications and prolonged ventilation. Four patients (5.3%) died in ICU and one more during follow-up, indicating a 30-day mortality rate of 6.6%. Regarding in-hospital mortality, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.92 for SAPS II, 0.88 for APACHE II, 0.73 for MODS and 0.74 for SOFA. Regarding 30 day-mortality, SAPS II and APACHE II performed equally higher (AUC = 0.88) than the other two scores (0.79 for MODS and 0.80 for SOFA). SAPS II had the best calibration among all four scores for in-hospital and 30-day mortality ( χ 2  = 3.06 and χ 2  = 3.29, respectively). AUCs for in-hospital and 30-day morbidity were above 0.7 for SAPS II and APACHE II. SAPS II and APACHE II are reliable mortality and morbidity risk stratification models for TAVI patients with high calibration and discrimination.

  18. Prognostics

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    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics has received considerable attention recently as an emerging sub-discipline within SHM. Prognosis is here strictly defined as “predicting the time at...

  19. Application of different prognostic scoring systems and comparison of the FAB and WHO classifications in Korean patients with myelodysplastic syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J-H; Lee, J-H; Shin, Y-R; Lee, J-S; Kim, W-K; Chi, H-S; Park, C-J; Seo, E-J; Lee, K-H

    2003-02-01

    We retrospectively studied 227 patients with MDS (1) to identify the prognostic factors of survival and acute leukemia evolution in Korean patients with MDS, (2) to apply different prognostic scoring systems to the same group of patients, and (3) to compare the FAB with the WHO classification. Six scoring systems were applied to the patients, and the FAB and WHO classifications were compared. The patients' median age was 57 years. The median survival time was 21 months, and age, dysgranulopoiesis and the IPSS cytogenetic groups were independent prognostic factors for survival. Acute leukemia occurred in 34 patients, and the cumulative incidence was 27.1% at 3 years. Marrow blast percentage was the only independent prognostic factor for acute leukemia evolution. Most scoring systems successfully discriminated risk groups for survival and acute leukemia evolution, but patient distribution into risk groups varied according to the scoring systems. Refractory cytopenia with multilineage dysplasia and RAEB II seemed to have different prognoses from RA or RARS and RAEB I, respectively. In summary, our MDS patients had different disease natures from those of Western countries regarding clinical features, prognostic factors and cytogenetic profiles. Although the WHO classification seems to improve the FAB classification, further studies are warranted to validate the utility of the WHO classification before it is accepted for routine clinical use. Our study has the limitations of retrospective analysis, and our results should be verified in future prospective studies.

  20. Prognostic scoring systems for mortality in intensive care units--the APACHE model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niewiński, Grzegorz; Starczewska, Małgorzata; Kański, Andrzej

    2014-01-01

    The APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) scoring system is time consuming. The mean time for introducing a patient's data to APACHE IV is 37.3 min. Nevertheless, statisticians have known for years that the higher the number of variables the mathematical model describes, the more accurate the model. Because of the necessity of gathering data over a 24-hour period and of determining one cause for ICU admission, the system is troublesome and prone to mistakes. The evolution of the APACHE scoring system is an example of unfulfilled hopes for accurately estimating the risk of death for patients admitted to the ICU; satisfactory prognostic effects resulting from the use of APACHE II and III have been recently studied in patients undergoing liver transplantations. Because no increase in the predictive properties of successive versions has been observed, the search for other solutions continues. The APACHE IV scoring system is helpful; however, its use without prepared spreadsheets is almost impractical. Therefore, although many years have passed since its original publication, APACHE II or its extension APACHE III is currently used in clinical practice.

  1. Q fever pneumonia in French Guiana: prevalence, risk factors, and prognostic score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epelboin, Loïc; Chesnais, Cédric; Boullé, Charlotte; Drogoul, Anne-Sophie; Raoult, Didier; Djossou, Félix; Mahamat, Aba

    2012-07-01

    Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the major manifestation of Q fever, an emerging disease in French Guiana. Consequently, the empirical antibiotherapy used for the treatment of CAP combines doxycycline and the recommended amoxicillin. Our objectives were to estimate the prevalence of Q fever pneumonia and to build a prediction rule to identify patients with Q fever pneumonia for empirical antibiotic guidance. A retrospective case-control study was conducted on inpatients admitted with CAP in the Department of Infectious Diseases of Cayenne Hospital from 2004 to 2007. Serodiagnosis for Coxiella burnetii was performed for all patients. Risk factor analysis was performed using multivariate logistic regression, and a prognostic score was computed using bootstrap procedures. The score performance characteristics were used to choose the best prediction rule to identify patients with Q fever pneumonia. One hundred thirty-one patients with CAP were included and the Q fever pneumonia prevalence was 24.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17.1-31.9). In multivariate analysis, male sex, middle age (age, 30-60 years), headache, leukocyte count 185 mg/L were independently associated with Q fever pneumonia. Patients with a predictive score ≤3 had a low risk of Q fever pneumonia with a negative predictive value of 0.97 (95% CI, .90-1) and a sensitivity of 0.97 (95% CI, .89-1). The prediction rule described here accurately identifies patients with low risk of Q fever pneumonia and may help physicians to make more rational decisions about the empirical use of antibiotherapy. Further prospective studies should be performed to validate this score.

  2. The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score is prognostically superior to the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD variants following paracetamol (acetaminophen) overdose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, D G N; Reid, T W D J; Wright, E C; Martin, K G; Davidson, J S; Hayes, P C; Simpson, K J

    2012-03-01

    The prognostic value of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and sodium-based MELD variants in predicting survival following paracetamol overdose remains unclear. To examine the prognostic accuracy of sodium-based MELD variants in paracetamol-induced acute liver injury compared with the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score. Retrospective analysis of 138 single time point paracetamol overdoses admitted to a tertiary liver centre. Individual laboratory samples were correlated with the corresponding clinical parameters in relation to time post-overdose, and the daily MELD, MELD-Na, MELDNa, MESO, iMELD, UKELD, updated MELD and SOFA scores were calculated. Sixty-six (47.8%) patients developed hepatic encephalopathy, of whom 7 were transplanted and 21 died without liver transplantation. SOFA had a significantly greater area under the receiver operator characteristic for the prediction of spontaneous survival compared with MELD at both 72 (P = 0.024) and 96 (P = 0.017) h post-overdose. None of the sodium-based MELD variants improved the prognostic accuracy of MELD. A SOFA score >6 by 72 h or >7 by 96 h, post-overdose predicted death/transplantation with a negative predictive value of 96.9 (95% CI 90.2-99.4) and 98.8 (95% CI 93.6-99.9) respectively. SOFA and MELD had similar accuracy for predicting the development of hepatic encephalopathy (P = 0.493). The SOFA score is superior to MELD in predicting spontaneous survival following paracetamol-induced acute liver injury. Modification of the MELD score to include serum sodium does not improve prognostic accuracy in this setting. SOFA may have potential as a quantitative triage marker following paracetamol overdose. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  3. Prognostic value of malnutrition assessed by Controlling Nutritional Status score for long-term mortality in patients with acute heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwakami, Naotsugu; Nagai, Toshiyuki; Furukawa, Toshiaki A; Sugano, Yasuo; Honda, Satoshi; Okada, Atsushi; Asaumi, Yasuhide; Aiba, Takeshi; Noguchi, Teruo; Kusano, Kengo; Ogawa, Hisao; Yasuda, Satoshi; Anzai, Toshihisa

    2017-03-01

    The prognostic value of nutritional status is poorly understood and evidence-based nutritional assessment indices are required in acute heart failure (AHF). We investigated the prognostic value of malnutrition assessed by the Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score (range 0-12, higher=worse, consisting of serum albumin, cholesterol and lymphocytes) in AHF patients. The CONUT score was measured on admission in 635 consecutive AHF patients. The primary outcome was all-cause death. Median CONUT score was 3 (interquartile range 2 to 5). During the median follow-up of 324days, CONUT score was independently associated with death (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.11-1.42, Pnutritional markers in HF. Furthermore, addition of the CONUT score to an established risk prediction model from the Organized Program to Initiate Lifesaving Treatment in Hospitalized Patients with Heart Failure study significantly increased the C-statistic from 0.75 to 0.77 (P=0.02). The net reclassification improvement afforded by CONUT score was 21% for all-cause death, 27% for survival and 49% overall (Pnutritional indices. Moreover, addition of the score to the existing risk prediction model significantly increased the predictive ability for death, indicating beneficial clinical application of the CONUT score in AHF patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Postoperative outcome after oesophagectomy for cancer: Nutritional status is the missing ring in the current prognostic scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filip, B; Scarpa, M; Cavallin, F; Cagol, M; Alfieri, R; Saadeh, L; Ancona, E; Castoro, C

    2015-06-01

    Several prognostic scores were designed in order to estimate the risk of postoperative adverse events. None of them includes a component directly associated to the nutritional status. The aims of the study were the evaluation of performance of risk-adjusted models for early outcomes after oesophagectomy and to develop a score for severe complication prediction with special consideration regarding nutritional status. A comparison of POSSUM and Charlson score and their derivates, ASA, Lagarde score and nutritional index (PNI) was performed on 167 patients undergoing oesophagectomy for cancer. A logistic regression model was also estimated to obtain a new prognostic score for severe morbidity prediction. Overall morbidity was 35.3% (59 cases), severe complications (grade III-V of Clavien-Dindo classification) occurred in 20 cases. Discrimination was poor for all the scores. Multivariable analysis identified pulse, connective tissue disease, PNI and potassium as independent predictors of severe morbidity. This model showed good discrimination and calibration. Internal validation using standard bootstrapping techniques confirmed the good performance. Nutrition could be an independent risk factor for major complications and a nutritional status coefficient could be included in current prognostic scores to improve risk estimation of major postoperative complications after oesophagectomy for cancer. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. IDH mutation status trumps the Pignatti risk score as a prognostic marker in low-grade gliomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etxaniz, Olatz; Carrato, Cristina; de Aguirre, Itziar; Queralt, Cristina; Muñoz, Ana; Ramirez, José L; Rosell, Rafael; Villà, Salvador; Diaz, Rocio; Estival, Ana; Teixidor, Pilar; Indacochea, Alberto; Ahjal, Sara; Vilà, Laia; Balañá, Carme

    2017-11-01

    Management of low-grade gliomas (LGG) is based on clinical and radiologic features, including the Pignatti prognostic scoring system, which classifies patients as low- or high-risk. To determine whether molecular data can offer advantages over these features, we have examined the prognostic impact of several molecular alterations in LGG. In a cohort of 58 patients with LGG, we have retrospectively analyzed clinical and molecular characteristics, including the Pignatti criteria, IDH mutations, TP53 mutations, the 1p/19q deletion, and MGMT methylation, and correlated our findings with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Mean age of patients was 45 years; 71% were classified as low-risk by the Pignatti system. IDH mutations were detected in 62%, p53 mutations in 17%, the 1p/19q codeletion in 46%, and MGMT methylation in 40% of patients. Survival analyses were performed in the 49 patients without contrast enhancement. In the univariate analysis, IDH mutations, the 1p/19q codeletion, and the combination of IDH mutations with the 1p/19q codeletion were associated with both longer PFS (P = 0.006, P = 0.037, and P = 0.003, respectively) and longer OS (P IDH mutations as a factor for greater risk of progression [hazard ratio (HR) = 3.1; P = 0.007]and death (HR = 6.4; P IDH mutations may be more effective than the Pignatti score in discriminating low- and high-risk patients with LGG.

  6. Development of a Prognostic Score Using the Complete Blood Cell Count for Survival Prediction in Unselected Critically Ill Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Chongliang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The purpose of this study was to develop a new prognostic scoring system for critically ill patients using the simple complete blood cell count (CBC. Methods. CBC measurements in samples from 306 patients in an intensive care unit were conducted with automated analyzers, including levels of neutrophils, lymphocytes, erythrocytes, hemoglobin, and platelets. The time of sampling and the time of death were recorded. Z values were calculated according to the measured values, reference mean values, and standard deviations. The prognostic score was equivalent to the median of the Z value of each of the measured parameters. Results. There was a significant correlation between survival time and neutrophil, lymphocyte, and platelet levels (P<0.05. Prognostic scores were calculated from the Z value of these three parameters. Survival times decreased as the prognostic score increased. Conclusions. This study suggests that a model that uses levels of neutrophils, lymphocytes, and platelets is potentially useful in the objective evaluation of survival time or disease severity in unselected critically ill patients.

  7. Model-based Prognostics with Concurrent Damage Progression Processes

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics approaches rely on physics-based models that describe the behavior of systems and their components. These models must account for the several...

  8. Distributed Damage Estimation for Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics approaches capture system knowl- edge in the form of physics-based models of components that include how they fail. These methods consist of...

  9. Multiple Damage Progression Paths in Model-based Prognostics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics approaches employ do- main knowledge about a system, its components, and how they fail through the use of physics-based models. Compo- nent...

  10. [The shoulder-hand syndrome after stroke: clinical factors of severity and value of prognostic score of Perrigot].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daviet, J C; Preux, P M; Salle, J Y; Lebreton, F; Munoz, M; Dudognon, P; Pelissier, J; Perrigot, M

    2001-07-01

    The purposes of this study were to evaluate the prognostical factors of reflex sympathetic dystrophy in stroke patients in attempt to improve the Perrigot prognostical score. This prospective study included 28 stroke patients with reflex sympathetic dystrophy. An initial clinical assessment including Perrigot score was made at the time of admission (before the end of the first month) and a second evaluation of reflex sympathetic dystrophy at the end of the third month. Patients were assessed using Motricity Index, Ashworth scale, de Bats grading (for glenohumeral alignment), Labrousse criteria (for reflex sympathetic dystrophy severity), and MADRS depression scale. Sensory deficit and unilateral neglect were noted. The length of stay in acute ward was 16 days. The Perrigot score was correlated with the reflex sympathetic dystrophy severity (r = 0.7, p shoulder subluxation. It wasn't possible to improve the Perrigot prognostical score. Perrigot score predict reflex sympathetic dystrophy severity and the result of therapy. The shoulder subluxation which is not included in this score appears to be not predictive. Shoulder subluxation is simply a marker of a severe paresis.

  11. Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A N; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L; Bennett, John M; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

    2015-02-01

    International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%-20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34(+)) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34(+) peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34(+) blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

  12. Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A. N.; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L.; Bennett, John M.; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R.; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

    2015-01-01

    International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%–20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34+) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34+ peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34+ blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). PMID:25344522

  13. Relationship between nutritional status and the Glasgow Prognostic Score in patients with colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurício, Sílvia Fernandes; da Silva, Jacqueline Braga; Bering, Tatiana; Correia, Maria Isabel Toulson Davisson

    2013-04-01

    The association between nutritional status and inflammation was assessed in patients with colorectal cancer and to verify their association with complications during anticancer treatment. The agreement between the Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) and different nutritional assessment methods was also evaluated. A cross-sectional, prospective, and descriptive study was performed. The nutritional status was defined by the SGA and the severity of inflammation was defined by the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS). The complications were classified using the Common Toxicity Criteria, version 3. Anthropometric measurements such as body mass index, triceps skinfold, midarm circumference, midarm muscle area, and adductor pollicis muscle thickness were also performed, as were handgrip strength and phase angle. The chi-square test, Fisher exact test, Spearman correlation coefficient, independent t test, analysis of variance, Gabriel test, and κ index were used for the statistical analysis. P cancer (60.4 ± 14.3 y old) were included. The nutritional status according to the SGA was associated with the GPS (P nutritional assessment methods with the SGA, there were statistically significant differences. Malnutrition is highly prevalent in patients with colorectal cancer. The nutritional status was associated with the GPS. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. A novel scoring system for prognostic prediction in d-galactosamine/lipopolysaccharide-induced fulminant hepatic failure BALB/c mice

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    Gao Yan

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is frequently important to identify the prognosis of fulminant hepatic failure (FHF patients as this will influence patient management and candidacy for liver transplantation. Therefore, a novel scoring system based on metabonomics combining with multivariate logistic regression was developed to predict the prognosis of FHF mouse model. Methods BALB/c mice were used to construct FHF model. Parts of plasma were collected at 4, 5, and 6-h time points after treatment, respectively, and detected using gas chromatography/time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC/TOFMS. The acquired data were processed using partial least square discriminant analysis (PLS-DA. The metabolic markers identified were used to construct a scoring system by multivariate regression analysis. Results 28 mice of survival group and 28 of dead group were randomly selected and analyzed. PLS regression analysis showed that both the PLS models of 5 h and 6 h after d-galactosamine/lipopolysaccharide treatment demonstrated good performances. Loadings plot suggested that phosphate, beta-hydroxybutyrate (HB, urea, glucose and lactate concentrations in plasma had the highest weightings on the clustering differences at the three time points. By the multivariate logistic regression analysis, the death/survival index (DSI was constructed based on relative concentrations of HB, urea and phosphate. It provided general accurate rate of prediction of 93.3% in the independent samples. Conclusions The novel scoring system based on metabonomics combining with multivariate logistic regression is accurate in predicting the prognosis of FHF mouse model and may be referred in clinical practice as a more useful prognostic tool with other available information.

  15. A Model-based Avionic Prognostic Reasoner (MAPR)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Model-based Avionic Prognostic Reasoner (MAPR) presented in this paper is an innovative solution for non-intrusively monitoring the state of health (SoH) and...

  16. Model-based Prognostics with Fixed-lag Particle Filters

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics exploits domain knowl- edge of the system, its components, and how they fail by casting the underlying physical phenom- ena in a...

  17. Can Procalcitonin Add to the Prognostic Power of the Severity Scoring System in Adults with Pneumonia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naderi, HamidReza; Sheybani, Fereshte; Sarvghad, MohammadReza; Nooghabi, Mehdi Jabbari

    2015-01-01

    The first decision confronting clinicians in the management of patients with community acquired pneumonia (CAP) is whether the patient is to be hospitalized or not. We sought to validate the pneumonia scoring system and assess the power of procalcitonin (PCT) level to predict in-hospital mortality (IHM) and intensive vasopressor and respiratory support (IVRS) requirements in patients with CAP. A total of 120 patients with CAP were evaluated for severity of illness based on the defined scoring systems including pneumonia severity index (PSI), confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age>65 (CURB-65), confusion, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age>65 (CRB-65), infectious diseases society of America/American thoracic society 2007 criteria (IDSA/ATS 2007) and systolic blood pressure, multilobar infiltrate, albumin, respiratory rate, tachycardia, confusion, low oxygen, low pH (SMART-COP). Demographic, clinical, laboratory and radiographic data were collected prospectively. The accuracy of each scoring system in predicting IVRS requirement and IHM was assessed from the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Level of PCT was determined by semi-quantitative PCT-Q method (BRAHMS). The accuracy of the defined scoring systems, PCT levels and each scoring system plus PCT levels in prediction of IHM and IVRS requirement was analyzed. The accuracy of PCT levels in predicting IHM and IVRS requirement based on AUC was 0.542 and 0.658, respectively and the best threshold was ≥ 2ng/mL for both of them. Adding the level of procalcitonin to different scoring systems (based on the defined scoring systems) improved the accuracy of all systems. We do not suggest using the PCT level alone as a predictor for mortality and IVRS requirement. Instead, we suggest PSI plus PCT and IDSA/ATS 2007 plus PCT as accurate predictors for IHM and SMART-COP plus PCT for IVRS requirement in patients who presented with CAP.

  18. Prognostic significance of global grading system of Gleason score in patients with prostate cancer with bone metastasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kambara, Tsunehito; Oyama, Tetsunari; Segawa, Atsuki; Fukabori, Yoshitatsu; Yoshida, Ken-Ichiro

    2010-06-01

    To investigate the influence of the revised Gleason grading system (GGS, revised at a consensus conference organized by the International Society of Urological Pathology in 2005) on prediction of prognosis for patients with prostate cancer with bone metastasis. Prostatic needle biopsy specimens from 113 patients with prostate cancer with bone metastasis were scored using the conventional GGS (CGGS), modified global GGS (MGGGS), and modified highest GGS (MHGGS). The patients were divided into two groups (Gleason score or = 8) using each grading system. Prostate-specific antigen failure-free survival after hormone therapy (HT) was estimated retrospectively. The Cox proportional hazard method was used for univariate and multivariate analysis. Patients with a Gleason score of score of > or = 8 according to each GGS. However, the better prognosis patients were detected more precisely by the CGGS and MGGGS than the MHGGS. Multivariate analysis showed that the CGGS and MGGGS were significant prognostic indicators for the outcome of HT after adjustment for other prognostic factors. These results suggest that the CGGS and MGGGS are more useful than the MHGGS as prognostic indicators for HT. Further evaluation in larger series is needed to define its clinical usefulness.

  19. The Predictive Prognostic Values of Serum TNF-α in Comparison to SOFA Score Monitoring in Critically Ill Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayman Abd Al-Maksoud Yousef

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The use of inflammatory markers to follow up critically ill patients is controversial. The short time frame, the need for frequent and serial measurement of biomarkers, the presence of soluble receptor and their relatively high cost are the major drawbacks. Our study’s objective is to compare the prognostic values of serum TNF-α and SOFA score monitoring in critically ill patients. Patients and Methods. A total of ninety patients were included in the study. Forty-five patients developed septic complication (sepsis group. Forty-five patients were critically ill without evidence of infectious organism (SIRS group. Patients’ data include clinical status, central venous pressure, and laboratory analysis were measured. A serum level of TNF-α and SOFA score were monitored. Results. Monitoring of TNF-α revealed significant elevation of TNF-α at 3rd and 5th days of ICU admission in both groups. Monitoring of SOFA score revealed significant elevation of SOFA scores in both groups throughout their ICU stay, particularly in nonsurvivors. Positive predictive ability of SOFA score was demonstrated in critically ill patients. Conclusion. Transient significant increase in serum levels of TNF-α were detected in septic patients. Persistent elevation of SOFA score was detected in nonsurvivor septic patients. SOFA score is an independent prognostic value in critically ill patients.

  20. Prognostic Value of Gai′s Plaque Score and Agatston Coronary Artery Calcium Score for Functionally Significant Coronary Artery Stenosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuang Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Conclusions: Both CACS in a single artery and Gai's plaque score demonstrated a good capacity to assess functionally significant coronary artery stenosis when compared to the gold standard FFR. However, Gai's plaque score was more predictive of FFR <0.80. Gai's score can be easily calculated in daily clinical practice and could be used when considering revascularization.

  1. Comparison of prognostic impact of absolute lymphocyte count, absolute monocyte count, absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count prognostic score and ratio in patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markovic, Olivera; Popovic, Lazar; Marisavljevic, Dragomir; Jovanovic, Darjana; Filipovic, Branka; Stanisavljevic, Dejana; Matovina-Brko, Gorana; Hajder, Jelena; Matkovic, Tatjana; Živkovic, Radmila; Stanisavljevic, Natasa; Todorović, Milena; Petrovic, Dragana; Mihaljevic, Biljana

    2014-03-01

    The combination of absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) and absolute monocyte count (AMC) at diagnosis has prognostic relevance in patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL). The present study was designed to investigate the prognostic significance of ALC and AMC and to determine whether ALC/AMC ratio or ALC/AMC prognostic score is better predictor of outcome in DLBCL. We retrospectively analyzed the prognostic significance of ALC and AMC, ALC/AMC ratio and ALC/AMC prognostic score at diagnosis in 222 DLBCL patients treated with R-CHOP. ROC analysis showed that optimal cut-off values of AMC and ALC/AMC ratio with the best sensitivity and specificity were 0.59×10(9)/L and 2.8, respectively. Cut-off of ALC was determined according to the literature data (1×10(9)/L). Low ALC, high AMC, low ALC/AMC ratio and high ALC/AMC prognostic score were in significant association with lower rate of therapy response and survival. In contrast, these parameters were not in significant correlation with relapse rate. The patients with low ALC, "high" AMC, low ALC/AMC ratio and high ALC/AMC prognostic score at diagnosis had significantly shorter EFS and OS. In multivariate analysis all tested parameters (ALC, AMC, ALC/AMC prognostic score and ALC/AMC ratio) are independent risk factors along with "bulky" disease and IPI. All tested parameters (ALC, AMC, ALC/AMC score and ALC/AMC ratio) may be useful prognostic factors in DLBCL patients. ALC/AMC score has a slight advantage as it allows the classification of patients into three prognostic groups. Further studies are needed to determine which of these parameters has the highest predictive value. Copyright © 2014 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. LIPID PROFILE OF CIRRHOTIC PATIENTS AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH PROGNOSTIC SCORES: a cross-sectional study

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    Lílian BASSANI

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundIn cirrhosis the production of cholesterol and lipoproteins is altered.ObjectiveEvaluate the lipid profile by measuring total cholesterol, very low-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein and triglyceride levels in patients with cirrhosis caused by alcoholism and/or hepatitis C virus infection and determine its association with Child-Pugh and MELD scores.MethodsCross-sectional retrospective study of patients treated at the outpatient clinic in Porto Alegre, Brazil, from 2006 to 2010.ResultsIn total, 314 records were reviewed, and 153 (48.7% met the inclusion criteria, of which 82 (53.6% had cirrhosis that was due to hepatitis C virus infection, 50 (32.7% were due to alcoholism, and 21 (13.7% were due to alcoholism and hepatitis C virus infection. The total cholesterol levels diminished with a Child-Pugh progression (P20 was associated with lower total cholesterol levels (<100mg/dL; P<0.001, very low-density lipoprotein (<16 mg/dL; P=0.006, and low-density lipoprotein (<70 mg/dL; P=0.003. Inverse and statistically significant correlations were observed between Child-Pugh and all the lipid fractions analyzed (P<0.001. The increase in MELD was inversely correlated with reduced levels intotal cholesterol (P<0.001, high-density lipoprotein (P<0.001, low-density lipoprotein (P<0.001, very low-density lipoprotein (P=0.030 and triglyceride (P=0.003.ConclusionA reduction in the lipid profile in patients with cirrhosis due to hepatitis C virus infection and/or alcoholism was significantly associated with the Child-Pugh and MELD prognostic markers. These results suggest that the lipid profile may be used as a tool to assist in evaluating liver disease.

  3. Association between pretreatment Glasgow prognostic score and gastric cancer survival and clinicopathological features: a meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang CX

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Chun-Xiao Zhang,* Shu-Yi Wang,* Shuang-Qian Chen, Shuai-Long Yang, Lu Wan, Bin Xiong Department of Oncology, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Hubei Key Laboratory of Tumor Biological Behaviors and Hubei Cancer Clinical Study Center, Wuhan, Hubei, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: Glasgow prognostic score (GPS is widely known as a systemic inflammatory-based marker. The relationship between pretreatment GPS and gastric cancer (GC survival and clinicopathological features remains controversial. The aim of the study was to conduct a meta-analysis of published studies to evaluate the association between pretreatment GPS and survival and clinicopathological features in GC patients. Methods: We searched PubMed, Embase, MEDLINE, and BioMed databases for relevant studies. Combined analyses were used to assess the association between pretreatment GPS and overall survival, disease-free survival, and clinicopathological parameters by Stata Version 12.0. Results: A total of 14 studies were included in this meta-analysis, including 5,579 GC patients. The results indicated that pretreatment high GPS (HGPS predicted poor overall survival (hazard ratio =1.51, 95% CI: 1.37–1.66, P<0.01 and disease-free survival (hazard ratio =1.45, 95% CI: 1.26–1.68, P<0.01 in GC patients. Pretreatment HGPS was also significantly associated with advanced tumor–node–metastasis stage (odds ratio [OR] =3.09, 95% CI: 2.11–4.53, P<0.01, lymph node metastasis (OR =4.60, 95% CI: 3.23–6.56, P<0.01, lymphatic invasion (OR =3.04, 95% CI: 2.00–4.62, P<0.01, and venous invasion (OR =3.56, 95% CI: 1.81–6.99, P<0.01. Conclusion: Our meta-analysis indicated that pretreatment HGPS could be a predicative factor of poor survival outcome and clinicopathological features for GC patients. Keywords: Glasgow prognostic score, gastric cancer, survival, clinicopathological feature

  4. Personalized video summarization based on group scoring

    OpenAIRE

    Darabi, K; G. Ghinea

    2014-01-01

    In this paper an expert-based model for generation of personalized video summaries is suggested. The video frames are initially scored and annotated by multiple video experts. Thereafter, the scores for the video segments that have been assigned the higher priorities by end users will be upgraded. Considering the required summary length, the highest scored video frames will be inserted into a personalized final summary. For evaluation purposes, the video summaries generated by our system have...

  5. Preeclampsia in kidney transplanted women; Outcomes and a simple prognostic risk score system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisæter, Anna Varberg; Zucknick, Manuela; Lorentzen, Bjørg; Vangen, Siri; Henriksen, Tore; Michelsen, Trond Melbye

    2017-01-01

    Women pregnant following kidney transplantation are at high risk of preeclampsia. Identifying the effects of preeclampsia on pregnancy outcome and allograft function in kidney transplanted women, and predicting which women will require more targeted follow-up and possible therapeutic intervention, could improve both maternal and neonatal outcome. In this retrospective cohort study of all pregnancies following kidney transplantation in Norway between 1969 and 2013, we used medical records to identify clinical characteristics predictive of preeclampsia. 175 pregnancies were included, in which preeclampsia was diagnosed in 65. Pregnancies with preeclampsia had significantly higher postpartum serum creatinine levels, higher risks of preterm delivery, caesarean delivery, and small for gestational age infants. In the final multivariate model chronic hypertension (aOR = 5.02 [95% CI, 2.47–10.18]), previous preeclampsia (aOR = 3.26 [95% CI, 1.43–7.43]), and elevated serum creatinine (≥125 μmol/L) at the start of pregnancy (aOR = 5.79 [95% CI, 1.91–17.59]) were prognostic factors for preeclampsia. Based on this model the risk was 19% when none of these factors were present, 45–59% risk when one was present, 80–87% risk when two were present, and 96% risk when all three were present. We suggest that the risk of preeclampsia in pregnancies in kidney transplanted women can be predicted with these variables, which are easily available at the start of pregnancy. PMID:28319175

  6. Prognostic Discrimination Using a 70-Gene Signature among Patients with Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer and an Intermediate 21-Gene Recurrence Score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Gwe Ahn

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The Oncotype DX® recurrence score (RS predictor has been clinically utilized to appropriately select adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with estrogen receptor (ER-positive early breast cancer. However, the selection of chemotherapy for patients with intermediate RSs remains controversial. We assessed the prognostic value of a 70-gene signature (70GS among patients with ER-positive breast cancer and intermediate RSs. In addition, we sought to identify genes associated with poor 70GS scores based on gene expression profiling (GEP. GEP was performed using gene expression data from 186 patients with ER-positive breast cancer. The RS and 70GS score were calculated on the basis of GEP. Among 186 patients, 82 ER-positive patients with intermediate RSs were identified. These patients were stratified by 70GS, overall survival (OS significantly differed according to 70GS (p = 0.013. In a supervised hierarchical analysis according to 70GS, the expression of several representative genes for cell proliferation was significantly higher in the poor 70GS cluster than in the good 70GS cluster. Furthermore, among these patients, FOXM1, AURKA, AURKB, and BIRC5 displayed prognostic significance for OS. In conclusion, 70GS can help to discriminate survival differences among ER-positive patients with intermediate RSs. FOXM1, AURKA, AURKB, and BIRC5, are associated with poor 70GS scores.

  7. A Model-based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew J. Daigle

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain knowledge of the system, its components, and how they fail by casting the underlying physical phenomena in a physics-based model that is derived from first principles. Uncertainty cannot be avoided in prediction, therefore, algorithms are employed that help in managing these uncertainties. The particle filtering algorithm has become a popular choice for model-based prognostics due to its wide applicability, ease of implementation, and support for uncertainty management. We develop a general model-based prognostics methodology within a robust probabilistic framework using particle filters. As a case study, we consider a pneumatic valve from the Space Shuttle cryogenic refueling system. We develop a detailed physics-based model of the pneumatic valve, and perform comprehensive simulation experiments to illustrate our prognostics approach and evaluate its effectiveness and robustness. The approach is demonstrated using historical pneumatic valve data from the refueling system.

  8. Prognostic Value of High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T Compared with Risk Scores in Stable Cardiovascular Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biener, Moritz; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Kuhner, Manuel; Zelniker, Thomas; Mueller-Hennessen, Matthias; Vafaie, Mehrshad; Trenk, Dietmar; Neumann, Franz-Josef; Hochholzer, Willibald; Katus, Hugo A

    2017-05-01

    Risk stratification of patients with cardiovascular disease remains challenging despite consideration of risk scores. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T in a low-risk outpatient population presenting for nonsecondary and secondary prevention. All-cause mortality, a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke (end point 2), and a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, stroke and rehospitalization for acute coronary syndrome, and decompensated heart failure (end point 3) were defined. The prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T on index visit was compared with the PROCAM score and 3 FRAMINGHAM subscores. In 693 patients with a median follow-up of 796 days, we observed 16 deaths, 32 patients with end point 2, and 83 patients with end point 3. All risk scores performed better in the prediction of all-cause mortality in nonsecondary prevention (area under the curve [AUC]: PROCAM: 0.922 vs 0.523, P = .001, consistent for all other scores). In secondary prevention, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T outperformed all risk scores in the prediction of all-cause mortality (ΔAUC: PROCAM: 0.319, P risk scores. Our findings on the prediction of all-cause mortality compared with the FRAMINGHAM-Hard Coronary Heart Disease score were confirmed in an independent validation cohort on 2046 patients. High-sensitivity troponin T provides excellent risk stratification regarding all-cause mortality and all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke in a secondary prevention cohort in whom risk scores perform poorly. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Report on outcomes of hypomethylating therapy for analyzing prognostic value of Revised International Prognostic Scoring System for patients with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yoo Jin; Park, Sung Woo; Lee, In Hee; Ahn, Jae Sook; Kim, Hyeoung Joon; Chung, Joo Seop; Shin, Ho Jin; Lee, Won Sik; Lee, Sang Min; Joo, Young Don; Kim, Hawk; Lee, Ho Sup; Kim, Yang Soo; Cho, Yoon Young; Moon, Joon Ho; Sohn, Sang Kyun

    2016-10-01

    The outcomes for patients with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (LR-MDS) by the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) vary widely. For more precise prognostication, this study evaluates the prognostic value of revised IPSS with the response to hypomethylating therapy (HMT). Using the Korean MDS Working Party database, treatment outcomes for 236 patients with HMT were retrospectively evaluated. The patients were then reclassified into very low/low (VL/L), intermediate (INT), and high (H) risk groups according to IPSS-R. According to the HMT response, the 3-year overall survival (OS) did not differ between the response group (37.9 ± 9.1 %) and the stable group (52.9 ± 6.6 %, p = 0. 782). When reclassifying according to IPSS-R, 42 patients (20.8 %) were reclassified into the H risk group. Most of them did not have benefit from continued HMT and progressed to secondary failure. The median OS was 59.0 months (range, 40.0-77.9 months) for the VL/L risk group, 31 months (range, 22.7-439.3 months) for the INT risk group, and 20.0 months (range, 15.9-24.1 months) for the H risk group (p risk group according to IPSS-R (HR = 3.054, p risk according to IPSS-R (HR = 4.912, p = 0.003), and transformation to AML (HR = 2.158, p = 0.002). If IPSS-R reclassifies LR-MDS patients as H risk, these patients should be considered for early allo-HCT, regardless of the current benefits from HMT.

  10. Prognostic value of early warning scores in the emergency department (ED) and acute medical unit (AMU): A narrative review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nannan Panday, R S; Minderhoud, T C; Alam, N; Nanayakkara, P W B

    2017-10-06

    A wide array of early warning scores (EWS) have been developed and are used in different settings to detect which patients are at risk of deterioration. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of studies conducted on the value of EWS on predicting intensive care (ICU) admission and mortality in the emergency department (ED) and acute medical unit (AMU). A literature search was conducted in the bibliographic databases PubMed and EMBASE, from inception to April 2017. Two reviewers independently screened all potentially relevant titles and abstracts for eligibility. 42 studies were included. 36 studies reported on mortality as an endpoint, 13 reported ICU admission and 9 reported the composite outcome of mortality and ICU admission. For mortality prediction National Early Warning Score (NEWS) was the most accurate score in the general ED population and in those with respiratory distress, Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score (MEDS) had the best accuracy in patients with an infection or sepsis. ICU admission was best predicted with NEWS, however in patients with an infection or sepsis Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) yielded better results for this outcome. MEWS and NEWS generally had favourable results in the ED and AMU for all endpoints. Many studies have been performed on ED and AMU populations using heterogeneous prognostic scores. However, future studies should concentrate on a simple and easy to use prognostic score such as NEWS with the aim of introducing this throughout the (pre-hospital and hospital) acute care chain. Copyright © 2017 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. "Score the Core" Web-based pathologist training tool improves the accuracy of breast cancer IHC4 scoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelberg, Jesse A; Retallack, Hanna; Balassanian, Ronald; Dowsett, Mitchell; Zabaglo, Lila; Ram, Arishneel A; Apple, Sophia K; Bishop, John W; Borowsky, Alexander D; Carpenter, Philip M; Chen, Yunn-Yi; Datnow, Brian; Elson, Sarah; Hasteh, Farnaz; Lin, Fritz; Moatamed, Neda A; Zhang, Yanhong; Cardiff, Robert D

    2015-11-01

    Hormone receptor status is an integral component of decision-making in breast cancer management. IHC4 score is an algorithm that combines hormone receptor, HER2, and Ki-67 status to provide a semiquantitative prognostic score for breast cancer. High accuracy and low interobserver variance are important to ensure the score is accurately calculated; however, few previous efforts have been made to measure or decrease interobserver variance. We developed a Web-based training tool, called "Score the Core" (STC) using tissue microarrays to train pathologists to visually score estrogen receptor (using the 300-point H score), progesterone receptor (percent positive), and Ki-67 (percent positive). STC used a reference score calculated from a reproducible manual counting method. Pathologists in the Athena Breast Health Network and pathology residents at associated institutions completed the exercise. By using STC, pathologists improved their estrogen receptor H score and progesterone receptor and Ki-67 proportion assessment and demonstrated a good correlation between pathologist and reference scores. In addition, we collected information about pathologist performance that allowed us to compare individual pathologists and measures of agreement. Pathologists' assessment of the proportion of positive cells was closer to the reference than their assessment of the relative intensity of positive cells. Careful training and assessment should be used to ensure the accuracy of breast biomarkers. This is particularly important as breast cancer diagnostics become increasingly quantitative and reproducible. Our training tool is a novel approach for pathologist training that can serve as an important component of ongoing quality assessment and can improve the accuracy of breast cancer prognostic biomarkers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. An accurate prostate cancer prognosticator using a seven-gene signature plus Gleason score and taking cell type heterogeneity into account.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Chen

    Full Text Available One of the major challenges in the development of prostate cancer prognostic biomarkers is the cellular heterogeneity in tissue samples. We developed an objective Cluster-Correlation (CC analysis to identify gene expression changes in various cell types that are associated with progression. In the Cluster step, samples were clustered (unsupervised based on the expression values of each gene through a mixture model combined with a multiple linear regression model in which cell-type percent data were used for decomposition. In the Correlation step, a Chi-square test was used to select potential prognostic genes. With CC analysis, we identified 324 significantly expressed genes (68 tumor and 256 stroma cell expressed genes which were strongly associated with the observed biochemical relapse status. Significance Analysis of Microarray (SAM was then utilized to develop a seven-gene classifier. The Classifier has been validated using two independent Data Sets. The overall prediction accuracy and sensitivity is 71% and 76%, respectively. The inclusion of the Gleason sum to the seven-gene classifier raised the prediction accuracy and sensitivity to 83% and 76% respectively based on independent testing. These results indicated that our prognostic model that includes cell type adjustments and using Gleason score and the seven-gene signature has some utility for predicting outcomes for prostate cancer for individual patients at the time of prognosis. The strategy could have applications for improving marker performance in other cancers and other diseases.

  13. Prognostic values of pneumonia severity index, CURB-65 and expanded CURB-65 scores in community-acquired pneumonia in Zagazig University Hospitals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samah M. Shehata

    2017-07-01

    Conclusions: Expanded CURB-65 score is simple, objective and more accurate scoring system for evaluation of CAP severity and can improve the efficiency of predicting the mortality in CAP patients, better than CURB-65 and PSI scores. Also, Expanded CUEB-65 may generate new therapeutic and prognostic modality in CAP especially in patients with liver cirrhosis.

  14. The 5-minute Apgar Score as a Prognostic Factor for Development and Progression of Retinopathy of Prematurity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marinov, Vasil G; Koleva-Georgieva, Desislava N; Sivkova, Nelly P; Krasteva, Maya B

    2017-03-01

    A low Apgar score at 5 minutes has been shown to be a risk factor for development of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). To examine the prognostic value of Apgar score at 5 minutes for development and progression of ROP. The study included 132 preterm infants who were screened from 4th week of life onward. Of these, 118 newborns were given Apgar score at 5 minutes. The prognostic significance of this index was studied as an absolute value and as a value ≤ 6. The patients were divided into two groups: group I had no evidence of ROP (n=82) and group II had some signs of ROP (n = 36). Group II was further divided into group IIA - spontaneously regressed cases (n=22), and group IIB with cases which progressed to treatment stages (n=14). We investigated 15 maternal and 20 newborn presumable risk factors for development and progression of ROP. Mann-Whitney U test, χ2 or Fisher's exact test were used in the statistical analysis. Logistic regression was performed to find significant and independent risk factors for manifestation and progression of ROP. A low 5-minute Apgar score and an Apgar score of 6 or less at 5 minutes were not statistically significant risk factors of ROP (р=0.191, р=0.191, respectively), but were significant risk factors for the manifested ROP to progress to stages requiring treatment (p=0.046, р=0.036, respectively). An Apgar score at 5 minutes of 6 or less was a significant and independent risk factor for progression of ROP to stages requiring treatment.

  15. Performance Status, Prognostic Scoring, and Parenteral Nutrition Requirements Predict Survival in Patients with Advanced Cancer Receiving Home Parenteral Nutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keane, Niamh; Fragkos, Konstantinos C; Patel, Pinal S; Bertsch, Friderike; Mehta, Shameer J; Di Caro, Simona; Rahman, Farooq

    2018-01-01

    We describe a cohort of Home Parenteral Nutrition (HPN) patients with advanced cancer in order to identify factors affecting prognosis. Demographic, anthropometric, biochemical and medical factors, Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), and PN requirements were recorded. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed including Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox Regression, and correlation analyses. In total, 107 HPN patients (68 women, 39 men, mean age 57 yr) with advanced cancer were identified. The main indications for HPN were bowel obstruction (74.3%) and high output ostomies (14.3%). Cancer cachexia was present in 87.1% of patients. The hazard ratio (HR) for upper gastrointestinal and "other" cancers vs. gynaecological malignancy was 1.75 (p = 0.077) and 2.11 (p = 0.05), respectively. KPS score, GPS, PN volume, and PN potassium levels significantly predicted survival (HRKPS ≥50 vs 0.05). Most patients passed away in their homes or hospice (77.9%). Performance status, prognostic scoring, and PN requirements may predict survival in patients with advanced cancer receiving HPN.

  16. Decreased Norton's functional score is an independent long-term prognostic marker in hospital survivors of acute myocardial infarction. Soroka Acute Myocardial Infarction II (SAMI-II) project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silber, Hagar; Shiyovich, Arthur; Gilutz, Harel; Ziedenberg, Hanna; Abu Tailakh, Muhammad; Plakht, Ygal

    2017-02-01

    Patient function is a risk factor of mortality following acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Norton scale (NS) was originally developed to estimate the risk for pressure ulcers. It contains 5 domains: mental condition, physical condition, mobility, activity in daily living and incontinence. To evaluate NS as long-term prognostic marker following AMI. A retrospective study based on computerized medical records of AMI patient hospitalized in a tertiary medical center in 2004-2012. NS scores and patients' characteristics were collected from computerized databases. The primary outcome was all-cause long-term (up-to 10-years) mortality. Overall 6964 patients were included; mean age 67.3±14.1years, 68.1% males. Mean NS score was 17.8±3; of which 21.1% had low-NS (≤16). Patients with low-NS had increased prevalence of hypertension, diabetes and renal disease, 3-vessel coronary artery disease, more often Non ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (NSTEMI) and in-hospital complications. Throughout the follow-up period cumulative mortality rate in patients with low- and high-NS groups were 97.3% and 43% respectively (AdjHR 1.66; 95% CI: 1.521-1.826; p<0.001). Furthermore, a reduction in one point in the NS score inversely associated with increased risk for mortality (AdjHR 1.10; 95% CI: 1.12-1.22; p<0.001). NS is an independent long-term prognostic marker for all-cause mortality in hospital survivors with a gradual "dose-response" effect. This data emphasizes the importance prognostic implication of the general functional status on the prognosis of AMI patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Ganga hospital open injury severity score - A score to prognosticate limb salvage and outcome measures in Type IIIb open tibial fractures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajasekaran S

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Gustilo′s grade IIIB classification includes a wide spectrum of injuries and is limited by high inter and intra observer error rates. Methods: A trauma score for grade IIIB open tibial fractures was devised to assess injury to three components; the covering tissues, musculotendinous units and bone with the severity scale in each category from one to five. Seven co-morbid conditions known to influence the prognosis were each given a score of two and summed up. Results : Ninety six consecutive Grade IIIB open injuries of tibia were prospectively evaluated. At 3-5 year follow up, of the 88 available, final score was less than five in 6 patients (Group I, between six and ten in 48 (Group II, eleven to fifteen in 29 (Group III and above 16 in five (Group IV. All patients in Group IV and one in Group III with score of fifteen underwent amputation. There was a significant difference (p less than 0.001 between the three groups in the requirement for flap (16.7,75&100 percent, time for union (16.3,24.9 &46.9, incidence of deep infection (0,22.9 &60.7 percent, number of surgical procedures (1.2,3.1 &6.3 and inpatient days (12.5,22.6 &59.4. A score of greater than three in any one component required special skills in management and interfered with healing of other structures. Conclusion: The scoring system was easy to apply and had a high degree of interobservor aggreement rate. This comprehensive score reliably prognosticates both limb salvage and outcome measures in severe open injuries of tibia.

  18. Procalcitonin Improves the Glasgow Prognostic Score for Outcome Prediction in Emergency Patients with Cancer: A Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Christina Rast

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS is useful for predicting long-term mortality in cancer patients. Our aim was to validate the GPS in ED patients with different cancer-related urgency and investigate whether biomarkers would improve its accuracy. We followed consecutive medical patients presenting with a cancer-related medical urgency to a tertiary care hospital in Switzerland. Upon admission, we measured procalcitonin (PCT, white blood cell count, urea, 25-hydroxyvitamin D, corrected calcium, C-reactive protein, and albumin and calculated the GPS. Of 341 included patients (median age 68 years, 61% males, 81 (23.8% died within 30 days after admission. The GPS showed moderate prognostic accuracy (AUC 0.67 for mortality. Among the different biomarkers, PCT provided the highest prognostic accuracy (odds ratio 1.6 (95% confidence interval 1.3 to 1.9, P<0.001, AUC 0.69 and significantly improved the GPS to a combined AUC of 0.74 (P=0.007. Considering all investigated biomarkers, the AUC increased to 0.76 (P<0.001. The GPS performance was significantly improved by the addition of PCT and other biomarkers for risk stratification in ED cancer patients. The benefit of early risk stratification by the GPS in combination with biomarkers from different pathways should be investigated in further interventional trials.

  19. Prognostic Value of A Qualitative Brain MRI Scoring System After Cardiac Arrest

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hirsch, Karen G.; Mlynash, Michael; Jansen, Sofie; Persoon, Suzanne; Eyngorn, Irina; Krasnokutsky, Michael V.; Wijman, Christine A. C.; Fischbein, Nancy J.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSETo develop a qualitative brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scoring system for comatose cardiac arrest patients that can be used in clinical practice. METHODSConsecutive comatose postcardiac arrest patients were prospectively enrolled. Routine MR brain sequences were scored

  20. Comparison of prognostic risk scores after successful primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Synetos, Andreas; Georgiopoulos, George; Pylarinou, Voula; Toutouzas, Konstantinos; Maniou, Katerina; Drakopoulou, Maria; Tolis, Panagiotis; Karanasos, Antonios; Papanikolaou, Aggelos; Latsios, George; Tsiamis, Eleftherios; Tousoulis, Dimitrios

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the predictive ability of clinical risk scores (ACEF, EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II) to angiographic (SYNTAX score) and combined risk scores (Global Risk Score and Clinical SXscore) towards cardiovascular death and/or major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in patients with ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEMI) managed with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). A total of 685 patients successfully treated with pPCI were evaluated and the risk scores were calculated. The primary endpoint was the 2-year incidence of fatal cardiac events. Secondary end points were target lesion failure (TLF), repeat revascularization (RR) and MACE. Patients distributed in the highest tertile of EuroSCORE II presented increased rates of CV death (CVD), all-cause mortality and MACE (p<0.001 for all). EuroSCORE II was associated with increased C-statistics (0.873, 95% CIs: 0.784-0.962 and 0.825, 95% CIs: 0.752-0.898 respectively) for predicting CVD and MACE over competing risk scores (p<0.05). EuroSCORE II conferred incremental discrimination (Harrell's C, p<0.05 for all, apart from CSS for predicting CVD) and reclassification value (Net Reclassification Index, p<0.05 for all, apart from CSS for reclassifying MACE) over alternative risk scores for study's main endpoints. EuroSCORE II independently predicted CVD (HR=1.06, 95% CIs: 1.03-1.09, p<0.001) and MACE (HR=1.07, 95% CIs: 1.04-1.10, p<0.001). EuroSCORE II has the best predictive ability of CVD and/or MACE after successful pPCI for the treatment of STEMI. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Pittsburgh response to endovascular therapy score as a pre-treatment prognostic tool: External validation in Trevo2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali Raza, Syed; Xiang, Bin; Jovin, Tudor G; Liebeskind, David S; Shields, Ryan; Nogueira, Raul G; Rangaraju, Srikant

    2017-07-01

    Background Optimal patient selection is needed to maximize the therapeutic benefit of endovascular therapy for large vessel occlusion stroke. Aims To validate the Pittsburgh response to endovascular therapy (PRE) score in a randomized controlled trial (Trevo2) comparing stent retriever (Trevo) to the Merci device. Methods Trevo2 participants with internal carotid, M1 and M2 middle cerebral artery occlusions with prospectively collected baseline stroke severity (NIHSS), degree of hypodensity (CT ASPECTS), and three-month modified Rankin Scale (mRS) were included. Multivariable regression was used to confirm association between PRE score variables (age, NIHSS, and ASPECTS), medical comorbidities, randomization arm, and reperfusion status (mTICI2B/3) with good outcome (three-month modified Rankin Scale 0-2). Predictive power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) for good outcome of pre-treatment prognostic scores (PRE, THRIVE, HIAT2) was compared. Rates of good outcome were compared between successfully reperfused (mTICI2B/3) and non-reperfused (mTICI0-2A) patients across previously identified PRE score risk groups. Results Age, NIHSS, ASPECTS, reperfusion status, and randomization arm were independent predictors of good outcome. PRE score had moderate predictive power (AUC = 0.75) for good outcome and was comparable to other pre-treatment scores. Reperfusion resulted in maximal treatment benefit in patients with PRE score 0-24 (60% vs. 12.5%, p = 0.002) but not in those with PRE ≥50 (11.8% vs. 0.0%, p = 0.49). Conclusion The PRE score is a validated predictor of functional outcome and a tool for patient selection for endovascular therapy in anterior large vessel occlusion stroke. Our finding of limited benefit of reperfusion in patients with PRE score ≥50 needs to be prospectively validated.

  2. Nutritional Risk in Major Abdominal Surgery: Protocol of a Prospective Observational Trial to Evaluate the Prognostic Value of Different Nutritional Scores in Pancreatic Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Probst, Pascal; Haller, Sebastian; Dörr-Harim, Colette; Bruckner, Thomas; Ulrich, Alexis; Hackert, Thilo; Diener, Markus K; Knebel, Phillip

    2015-11-16

    The influence of patients' preoperative nutritional status on their clinical outcome has already been proven. Therefore, patients with malnutrition are in need of additional therapeutic efforts. However, for pancreatic surgery, evidence suggesting the adequacy of existing nutritional assessment scores to estimate malnutrition associated with postoperative outcome is limited. The aim of the observational trial "Nutritional Risk in Major Abdominal Surgery (NURIMAS) Pancreas" is to prospectively assess and analyze different nutritional assessment scores for their prognostic value on postoperative complications in patients undergoing pancreatic surgery. All patients scheduled to receive elective pancreatic surgery at the University Hospital of Heidelberg will be screened for eligibility. Preoperatively, 12 nutritional assessment scores will be collected and patients will be assigned either at risk or not at risk for malnutrition. The postoperative course will be followed prospectively and complications according to the Clavien-Dindo classification will be recorded. The prognostic value for complications will be evaluated for every score in a univariable and multivariable analysis corrected for known risk factors in pancreatic surgery. Final data analysis is expected to be available during Spring 2016. The NURIMAS Pancreas trial is a monocentric, prospective, observational trial aiming to find the most predictive clinical nutritional assessment score for postoperative complications. Using the results of this protocol as a knowledge base, it is possible to conduct nutritional risk-guided intervention trials to prevent postoperative complications in the pancreatic surgical population. germanctr.de: DRKS00006340; https://drks-neu.uniklinik-freiburg.de/drks_web/navigate.do?navigationId=trial.HTML&TRIAL_ID=DRKS00006340 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6bzXWSRYZ).

  3. Pharmacophore-based similarity scoring for DOCK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Lingling; Rizzo, Robert C

    2015-01-22

    Pharmacophore modeling incorporates geometric and chemical features of known inhibitors and/or targeted binding sites to rationally identify and design new drug leads. In this study, we have encoded a three-dimensional pharmacophore matching similarity (FMS) scoring function into the structure-based design program DOCK. Validation and characterization of the method are presented through pose reproduction, crossdocking, and enrichment studies. When used alone, FMS scoring dramatically improves pose reproduction success to 93.5% (∼20% increase) and reduces sampling failures to 3.7% (∼6% drop) compared to the standard energy score (SGE) across 1043 protein-ligand complexes. The combined FMS+SGE function further improves success to 98.3%. Crossdocking experiments using FMS and FMS+SGE scoring, for six diverse protein families, similarly showed improvements in success, provided proper pharmacophore references are employed. For enrichment, incorporating pharmacophores during sampling and scoring, in most cases, also yield improved outcomes when docking and rank-ordering libraries of known actives and decoys to 15 systems. Retrospective analyses of virtual screenings to three clinical drug targets (EGFR, IGF-1R, and HIVgp41) using X-ray structures of known inhibitors as pharmacophore references are also reported, including a customized FMS scoring protocol to bias on selected regions in the reference. Overall, the results and fundamental insights gained from this study should benefit the docking community in general, particularly researchers using the new FMS method to guide computational drug discovery with DOCK.

  4. Prognostic significance of APACHE II score and plasma suPAR in Chinese patients with sepsis: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuan; Shen, Yong; Li, Zhihua; Fei, Aihua; Wang, Hairong; Ge, Qinmin; Pan, Shuming

    2016-07-29

    Timely risk stratification is the key strategy to improve prognosis of patients with sepsis. Previous study has proposed to develop a powerful risk assessment rule by the combination of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score and plasma soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). That reaffirmation of suPAR as a prognostic marker in Chinese patients with severe sepsis is the aim of the study. A total of 137 consecutive Chinese patients with sepsis were enrolled in a prospective study cohort. Demographic and clinical characteristics, conventional risk factors and important laboratory data were prospectively recorded. Sequential plasma suPAR concentrations were measured by an enzymeimmunoabsorbent assay on days 1, 3, and 7 after admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Cox regression analysis were used to examine the performance of suPAR in developing a rule for risk stratification. The results showed that plasma suPAR concentrations remained relatively stable within survivors and non-survivors during the first week of disease course. Regression analysis indicated that APACHE II ≥15 and suPAR ≥10.82 ng/mL were independently associated with unfavorable outcome. With the above cutoffs of APACHE II and suPAR, strata of disease severity were determined. The mortality of each stratum differed significantly from the others. Combination of APACHE II score and suPAR may supply the powerful prognostic utility for the mortality of sepsis.

  5. Efficacy of NETDC (New England Trophoblastic Disease Center prognostic index score to predict gestational trophoblastic tumor from hydatidiform mole

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khrismawan Khrismawan

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available A prospective longitudinal analytic study assessing the efficacy of NETDC (New England Trophoblastic Disease Center prognostic index score in predicting malignancy after hydatidiform mole had been performed. Of the parameter evaluated; age of patients, type of hydatidiform mole, uterine enlargement, serum hCG level, lutein cyst, and presence of complicating factors were significant risk factors for malignancy after hydatidiform mole were evacuated (p<0.032. The study were done on 50 women diagnosed with hydatidiform mole with 1 year observation (January 2001-December 2002 at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Mohammad Hoesin Hospital, Palembang. The results showed that the NETDC prognostic index score predicted malignancy in 50% of high risk group and 10% in low risk group (p<0.05. This showed a higher number than that found by the WHO (19%-30%. The risk for incidence of  malignancy after hydatidiform mole in the high risk group is 9.0 times higher compared to that of the low risk group (CI: 1.769-45.786. (Med J Indones 2004; 13: 40-6 Keywords: New England Trophoblastic Disease Center (NETDC, gestational trophoblastic tumor, hydatidiform mole, high and low risk

  6. Prognostic evaluation of patients undergoing living-donor liver transplant by APACHE II and MELD scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zheng-Yun; Chen, Rui; Zhou, Zun-Qiang; Peng, Cheng-Hong; Zhou, Guang-Wen

    2015-02-01

    We hypothesized that the combination of APACHE II and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease systems would work satisfactorily in patients admitted to intensive care unit after living-donor liver transplant. Data were retrospectively collected from the database of our surgical team. The study included 38 patients (hepatitis B virus cirrhosis, 47.4%; hepatocellular carcinoma, 28.9%; other diseases, 23.7%). Laboratory values were obtained. Vital signs, Glasgow Coma scale scores, and urine output were abstracted. Variables included age, sex, acute physiology score, APACHE II score, APACHE II-predicted intensive care unit and hospital mortality, predicted length of intensive care unit, and hospital stay. Patients' actual length of intensive care unit and hospital stays, intensive care unit and hospital discharge status, and discharge location were recorded. Standardized mortality ratios were calculated. Discrimination and calibration of APACHE II were assessed. All patients were divided into 3 groups: Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score: >25, 18 to 25, and APACHE II scores of survivors and non-survivors were 13.03 and 23.67. Mean risk of death was 7.05% and 25.07%. APACHE II scores and risk of death between survivors and non-survivors was significantly different (P APACHE II score and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score in the receiving operating characteristic curve was 20 and 25. Patients with APACHE II scores greater than 20 or Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores greater than 25 had higher predicted hospital mortality after living-donor liver transplant. The modified APACHE II model provides an accurate prognosis of patients receiving a living-donor liver transplant. The combined application of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score and APACHE II score can improve the predictive accuracy.

  7. Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms Based on Kalman Filter Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvan, Jose Ramon; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process, and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

  8. Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score is a prognostic marker for gastric cancer patients after curative resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuroda, Daisuke; Sawayama, Hiroshi; Kurashige, Junji; Iwatsuki, Masaaki; Eto, Tsugio; Tokunaga, Ryuma; Kitano, Yuki; Yamamura, Kensuke; Ouchi, Mayuko; Nakamura, Kenichi; Baba, Yoshifumi; Sakamoto, Yasuo; Yamashita, Yoichi; Yoshida, Naoya; Chikamoto, Akira; Baba, Hideo

    2017-06-27

    Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT), as calculated from serum albumin, total cholesterol concentration, and total lymphocyte count, was previously shown to be useful for nutritional assessment. The current study investigated the potential use of CONUT as a prognostic marker in gastric cancer patients after curative resection. Preoperative CONUT was retrospectively calculated in 416 gastric cancer patients who underwent curative resection at Kumamoto University Hospital from 2005 to 2014. The patients were divided into two groups: CONUT-high (≥4) and CONUT-low (≤3), according to time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The associations of CONUT with clinicopathological factors and survival were evaluated. CONUT-high patients were significantly older (p nutritional status but also for predicting long-term OS in gastric cancer patients after curative resection.

  9. Pro-atrial natriuretic peptide is a prognostic marker in sepsis, similar to the APACHE II score: an observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgenthaler, Nils G; Struck, Joachim; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Bergmann, Andreas; Müller, Beat

    2005-02-01

    Additional biomarkers in sepsis are needed to tackle the challenges of determining prognosis and optimizing selection of high-risk patients for application of therapy. In the present study, conducted in a cohort of medical intensive care unit patients, our aim was to compare the prognostic value of mid-regional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) levels with those of other biomarkers and physiological scores. Blood samples obtained in a prospective observational study conducted in 101 consecutive critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit were analyzed. The prognostic value of pro-ANP levels was compared with that of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score and with those of various biomarkers (i.e. C-reactive protein, IL-6 and procalcitonin). Mid-regional pro-ANP was detected in EDTA plasma from all patients using a new sandwich immunoassay. On admission, 53 patients had sepsis, severe sepsis, or septic shock, and 68 had systemic inflammatory response syndrome. The median pro-ANP value in the survivors was 194 pmol/l (range 20-2000 pmol/l), which was significantly lower than in the nonsurvivors (median 853.0 pmol/l, range 100-2000 pmol/l; P protein, and similar to the AUC for the APACHE II score. Pro-ANP appears to be a valuable tool for individual risk assessment in sepsis patients and for stratification of high-risk patients in future intervention trials. Further studies are needed to validate our results.

  10. QT dispersion and prognostication of the outcome in acute cardiotoxicities: A comparison with SAPS II and APACHE II scoring systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanian-Moghaddam, Hossein; Amiri, Hassan; Zamani, Nasim; Rahimi, Mitra; Shadnia, Shahin; Taherkhani, Maryam

    2014-06-01

    We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of QT dispersion (QTD) in determining the outcome of the patients poisoned by cardiotoxic medications and toxins. Patients who referred to our emergency department (ED) due to acute toxicity with any cardiotoxic medication or toxin and were admitted to medical toxicology intensive care unit (MTICU) were enrolled into the study. A questionnaire containing the demographic characteristics, vital signs, laboratory tests, electrocardiographic (ECG) parameters of the first ECG taken on MTICU or ED admission, simplified acute physiology score (SAPS), and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) score was filled for every single patient. QTD was manually calculated. The patients were divided into two groups of survivors and non-survivors and compared. Although QTD was not significantly different between the survivors and non-survivors (P = 0.8), SAPS II and APACHE II score were so. SAPS and APACHE had the highest sensitivity and specificity in determining the patients' mortality, respectively. SAPS had the highest sensitivity, and QTD had the highest specificity in predicting the later development of the complications. SAPS II and APACHE II scoring systems are the best systems for prognostication of death in patients with acute cardiotoxic medication-induced poisonings. QTD can be successfully used for the prediction of complications.

  11. Validation of new prognostic and predictive scores by sequential testing approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nieder, Carsten [Radiation Oncology Unit, Nordland Hospital, Bodo (Norway); Inst. of Clinical Medicine, Univ. of Tromso (Norway); Haukland, Ellinor; Pawinski, Adam; Dalhaug, Astrid [Radiation Oncology Unit, Nordland Hospital, Bodo (Norway)

    2010-03-15

    Background and Purpose: For practitioners, the question arises how their own patient population differs from that used in large-scale analyses resulting in new scores and nomograms and whether such tools actually are valid at a local level and thus can be implemented. A recent article proposed an easy-to-use method for the in-clinic validation of new prediction tools with a limited number of patients, a so-called sequential testing approach. The present study evaluates this approach in scores related to radiation oncology. Material and Methods: Three different scores were used, each predicting short overall survival after palliative radiotherapy (bone metastases, brain metastases, metastatic spinal cord compression). For each scenario, a limited number of consecutive patients entered the sequential testing approach. The positive predictive value (PPV) was used for validation of the respective score and it was required that the PPV exceeded 80%. Results: For two scores, validity in the own local patient population could be confirmed after entering 13 and 17 patients, respectively. For the third score, no decision could be reached even after increasing the sample size to 30. Conclusion: In-clinic validation of new predictive tools with sequential testing approach should be preferred over uncritical adoption of tools which provide no significant benefit to local patient populations. Often the necessary number of patients can be reached within reasonable time frames even in small oncology practices. In addition, validation is performed continuously as the data are collected. (orig.)

  12. Overall Survival in Spine Myeloma Metastases: Difficulties in Predicting With Prognostic Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amelot, Aymeric; Cristini, Joseph; Salaud, Céline; Moles, Alexis; Hamel, Olivier; Moreau, Philippe; Bord, Eric; Buffenoir, Kevin

    2017-03-15

    Fifty-one patients with spinal multiple myeloma (MM) metastases were operated and followed between January 2004 and July 2014. The aim of this study was to consider the efficiency of surgical prognosis scores in the management of spinal metastases myelomas. The spine is the most common site of bone metastases in MM. Surgery in spine metastases MM is a matter of debate and its impact on the increase of a patient's survival time is not clear. Several surgical survival scores have been developed to determine the best treatment in these patients. We studied 51 patients operated for spinal MM metastases between January 2004 and July 2014. We determined the Tokuhashi and Tomita survival scores and compared them with documented patient survivals. The two scores were also compared with the International Staging System (ISS). Median survival (MS) was 108 months [standard deviation (SD) 62] for ISS I, 132.2 (SD 40) for ISS II, and 45.5 months (SD 16.3) for ISS III (P = 0.09). According to Tokuhashi survival score, 21 patients (41.2%) will survive 12 months. According to Tomita et al., 50 patients (98%) will survive >49.9 months and 1 patient (2%) spine surgical prognosis scores are not accurate and are not able to predict the survival of patients with spine myeloma metastases. Spine surgeons have to be guided not by the initial ISS stage but rather by spinal instability and neurological status. N/A.

  13. Does continuous ST-segment monitoring add prognostic information to the TIMI, PURSUIT, and GRACE risk scores?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmo, Pedro; Ferreira, Jorge; Aguiar, Carlos; Ferreira, António; Raposo, Luís; Gonçalves, Pedro; Brito, João; Silva, Aniceto

    2011-07-01

    Recurrent ischemia is frequent in patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes (NST-ACS), and portends a worse prognosis. Continuous ST-segment monitoring (CSTM) reflects the dynamic nature of ischemia and allows the detection of silent episodes. The aim of this study is to investigate whether CSTM adds prognostic information to the risk scores (RS) currently used. We studied 234 patients with NST-ACS in whom CSTM was performed in the first 24 hours after admission. An ST episode was defined as a transient ST-segment deviation in ≥1 lead of ≥ 0.1 mV, and persisting ≥1 minute. Three RS were calculated: Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI; for NST-ACS), Platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa in Unstable angina: Receptor Supression Using Integrilin (PURSUIT; death/MI model), and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE). The end point was defined as death or nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), during 1-year follow-up. ST episodes were detected in 54 patients (23.1%) and associated with worse 1-year outcome: 25.9% end point rate versus 12.2% (Odds Ratio [OR]= 2.51; 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 1.18-5, 35; P = 0.026). All three RS predicted 1-year outcome, but the GRACE (c-statistic = 0.755; 95% CI, 0.695-0.809) was superior to both TIMI (c-statistic = 0.632; 95% CI, 0.567-0.694) and PURSUIT (c-statistic = 0.644; 95% CI: 0.579-0.706). A GRACE RS > 124 showed the highest accuracy for predicting end point. The presence of ST episodes added independent prognostic information the TIMI RS (hazard ratio [HR]= 2.23; 95% CI, 1.13-4.38) and to PURSUIT RS (HR = 2.03; 95% CI, 1.03-3.98), but not to the GRACE RS. CSTM provides incremental prognostic information beyond the TIMI and PURSUIT RS, but not the GRACE risk score. Hence, the GRACE risk score should be the preferred stratification model in daily practice. ©2011, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. A Comparison of Filter-based Approaches for Model-based Prognostics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics approaches use domain knowledge about a system and its failure modes through the use of physics-based models. Model-based prognosis is...

  15. Particle filter-based prognostic approach for railway track geometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Madhav; Odelius, Johan; Thaduri, Adithya; Nissen, Arne; Rantatalo, Matti

    2017-11-01

    Track degradation of ballasted railway track systems has to be measured on a regular basis, and these tracks must be maintained by tamping. Tamping aims to restore the geometry to its original shape to ensure an efficient, comfortable and safe transportation system. To minimize the disturbance introduced by tamping, this action has to be planned in advance. Track degradation forecasts derived from regression methods are used to predict when the standard deviation of a specific track section will exceed a predefined maintenance or safety limit. This paper proposes a particle filter-based prognostic approach for railway track degradation; this approach is demonstrated by examining different railway switches. The standard deviation of the longitudinal track degradation is studied, and forecasts of the maintenance limit intersection are derived. The particle filter-based prognostic results are compared with the standard regression method results for four railway switches, and the particle filter method shows similar or better result for the four cases. For longer prediction times, the error of the proposed method is equal to or smaller than that of the regression method. The main advantage of the particle filter-based prognostic approach is its ability to generate a probabilistic result based on input parameters with uncertainties. The distributions of the input parameters propagate through the filter, and the remaining useful life is presented using a particle distribution.

  16. [Apache III score: a prognostic factor in pressure ulcer development in an intensive care unit].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almirall Solsona, D; Leiva Rus, A; Gabasa Puig, I

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE. To analyze total APACHE III score association to pressure ulcers development in patients hospitalized in an intensive care unit (ICU). Prospective cohort study conducted in an intensive care unit of the Hospital General de VIC. All the patients hospitalized between January 2001 to December 2001 were enrolled. Age, gender, length of stay, total Norton and APACHE III score and pressure sore development were collected. Pressure sore incidence was 12.5% of the patients. The factors were significantly associated with the appearance of pressure sores in those patients with a length of stay in the intensive care unit, total Norton and severity of the disease measured by the APACHE III score. Patients having the greatest risk of pressure ulcers development were those whose Norton score was less than or equal to 14, and an APACHE III score higher than or equal to 50 (Odds Ratio: 37.9, 95% CI 11.16-128.47) The severity of the diseases measured with the APACHE III scale showed a relationship with the appearance of in-hospital pressure ulcers. The joint use of the APACHE III and Norton scale could be a good strategy to detect patients with very high risk of suffering pressure sores.

  17. TIMI risk score for acute myocardial infarction according to prognostic stratification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Jaqueline Locks; Sakae, Thiago Mamôru; Machado, Michele Cardoso; Castro, Charles Martins de

    2009-08-01

    The TIMI (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction) risk score is derived from clinical trial involving patients who are eligible for fibrinolysis. As the risk profiles of these cases differ from those found in non-selected populations, it is important to review the applicability of the score in usual clinical conditions. To evaluate the management and clinical evolution of hospital inpatients with acute myocardial infarction, according to risk stratification by the TIMI score. We evaluated, retrospectively, 103 cases of acute myocardial infarction with ST-segment elevation admitted to the Hospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição - Tubarão, in 2004 and 2005. The cases were analyzed in three risk groups according to the TIMI score. The hospital mortality after infarction was 17.5%. In the low-risk group there was no death. The mortality was 8.1% in the medium risk group and 55.6% in the high-risk group. The risk of death in cases of high risk was 14.1 times higher than in the cases of medium and low risk (95% CI = 4.4 to 44.1 and p risk group in relation to the low risk group (95% CI = 0.27 to 0.85, p = 0.004). There was a progressive increase in mortality and incidence of in-hospital complications according to the stratification by the TIMI score. High risk patients received thrombolytic less frequently than the patients at low risk.

  18. Stroma Based Prognosticators Incorporating Differences between African and European Americans

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    We also proposed to study DNA methylation differences in Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples (the material utilized in Pathology ). FFPE... Construct prognosticators for recurrence in AA and EA separately, and in AA+EA combined, with and without clinical parameters. Training set. 12-15 50...Microenvironment: Prospects for Diagnosis and Prognosis of Prostate Cancer Based on Changes in Tumor-Adjacent Stroma. Precision Molecular Pathology of

  19. Novel immunological and nutritional-based prognostic index for gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Kai-Yu; Xu, Jian-Bo; Chen, Shu-Ling; Yuan, Yu-Jie; Wu, Hui; Peng, Jian-Jun; Chen, Chuang-Qi; Guo, Pi; Hao, Yuan-Tao; He, Yu-Long

    2015-05-21

    To assess the prognostic significance of immunological and nutritional-based indices, including the prognostic nutritional index (PNI), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet-lymphocyte ratio in gastric cancer. We retrospectively reviewed 632 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy between 1998 and 2008. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were calculated to compare the predictive ability of the indices, together with estimating the sensitivity, specificity and agreement rate. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors for overall survival (OS). Propensity score analysis was performed to adjust variables to control for selection bias. Each index could predict OS in gastric cancer patients in univariate analysis, but only PNI had independent prognostic significance in multivariate analysis before and after adjustment with propensity scoring (hazard ratio, 1.668; 95% confidence interval: 1.368-2.035). In subgroup analysis, a low PNI predicted a significantly shorter OS in patients with stage II-III disease (P = 0.019, P index in gastric cancer.

  20. Additive prognostic value of the SYNTAX score over GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, CADILLAC and PAMI risk scores in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brkovic, Voin; Dobric, Milan; Beleslin, Branko; Giga, Vojislav; Vukcevic, Vladan; Stojkovic, Sinisa; Stankovic, Goran; Nedeljkovic, Milan A; Orlic, Dejan; Tomasevic, Miloje; Stepanovic, Jelena; Ostojic, Miodrag

    2013-08-01

    This study evaluated additive prognostic value of the SYNTAX score over GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, CADILLAC and PAMI risk scores in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). All six scores were calculated in 209 consecutive STEMI patients undergoing pPCI. Primary end-point was the major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE--composite of cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke); secondary end point was cardiovascular mortality. Patients were stratified according to the SYNTAX score tertiles (≤12; between 12 and 19.5; >19.5). The median follow-up was 20 months. Rates of MACE and cardiovascular mortality were highest in the upper tertile of the SYNTAX score (p score was independent multivariable predictor of MACE and cardiovascular mortality when added to GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, and PAMI risk scores. However, the SYNTAX score did not improve the Cox regression models of MACE and cardiovascular mortality when added to the CADILLAC score. The SYNTAX score has predictive value for MACE and cardiovascular mortality in patients with STEMI undergoing primary PCI. Furthermore, SYNTAX score improves prognostic performance of well-established GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE and PAMI clinical scores, but not the CADILLAC risk score. Therefore, long-term survival in patients after STEMI depends less on detailed angiographical characterization of coronary lesions, but more on clinical characteristics, myocardial function and basic angiographic findings as provided by the CADILLAC score.

  1. Electrochemistry-based Battery Modeling for Prognostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Kulkarni, Chetan Shrikant

    2013-01-01

    Batteries are used in a wide variety of applications. In recent years, they have become popular as a source of power for electric vehicles such as cars, unmanned aerial vehicles, and commericial passenger aircraft. In such application domains, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. To implement such technologies, it is crucial to understand how batteries work and to capture that knowledge in the form of models that can be used by monitoring, diagnosis, and prognosis algorithms. In this work, we develop electrochemistry-based models of lithium-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable accuracy for reliable EOD prediction in a variety of usage profiles. This paper reports on the progress of such a model, with results demonstrating the model validity and accurate EOD predictions.

  2. A Physics-Based Modeling Framework for Prognostic Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.

    2014-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) methodologies have emerged as one of the key enablers for achieving efficient system level maintenance as part of a busy operations schedule, and lowering overall life cycle costs. PHM is also emerging as a high-priority issue in critical applications, where the focus is on conducting fundamental research in the field of integrated systems health management. The term diagnostics relates to the ability to detect and isolate faults or failures in a system. Prognostics on the other hand is the process of predicting health condition and remaining useful life based on current state, previous conditions and future operating conditions. PHM methods combine sensing, data collection, interpretation of environmental, operational, and performance related parameters to indicate systems health under its actual application conditions. The development of prognostics methodologies for the electronics field has become more important as more electrical systems are being used to replace traditional systems in several applications in the aeronautics, maritime, and automotive fields. The development of prognostics methods for electronics presents several challenges due to the great variety of components used in a system, a continuous development of new electronics technologies, and a general lack of understanding of how electronics fail. Similarly with electric unmanned aerial vehicles, electrichybrid cars, and commercial passenger aircraft, we are witnessing a drastic increase in the usage of batteries to power vehicles. However, for battery-powered vehicles to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. We develop an electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable

  3. Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-based Prognostics Algorithms based on Kalman Filter Estimation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty represen- tation and management for model-based prognostics method- ologies based on our experience with Kalman...

  4. A Discussion on Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms based on Kalman Filter Estimation Applied to Prognostics of Electronics Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Saxen, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management, and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function and the true remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for the two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

  5. Applicability and prognostic value of histologic scoring systems in primary sclerosing cholangitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Elisabeth M G; Verheij, Joanne; Hubscher, Stefan G; Leeflang, Mariska M G; Boonstra, Kirsten; Beuers, Ulrich; Ponsioen, Cyriel Y

    2015-11-01

    Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease. At present, there is no appropriate histologic scoring system available for PSC, evaluating both degree of necroinflammatory activity (grade) and fibrosis (stage). The aim of this study was to assess if three scoring systems, commonly used in different liver diseases could be applied for grading and/or staging of PSC. Sixty-four PSC patients from a Dutch cohort, who underwent diagnostic liver biopsy, were included. Staging was scored using Ishak, Nakanuma, and Ludwig systems. Grading was scored using Ishak and Nakanuma systems. Three measures of outcome were defined; transplant-free survival, time to liver transplantation (LTx) and occurrence of cirrhosis related symptoms (CRS). Association of grade and stage with outcome was estimated using Kaplan-Meier log-rank test, and Cox regression analysis. Correlation with biochemistry was assessed by Spearman's rank test. There were strong associations between disease stage measured by Ishak, Nakanuma, and Ludwig staging systems with both outcome measuring transplant-free survival (Hazard ratio (HR) 2.56; 95% CI 1.11-5.89, HR 6.53; 95% CI 2.01-21.22, HR 1.94; 95% CI 1.00-3.79, respectively), and time to LTx (HR 4.18; 95%CI 1.51-11.56, HR 7.05; 95% CI 1.77-28.11, HR 3.13; 95%CI 1.42-6.87, respectively). Ishak and Nakanuma grading systems were not associated with CRS. Weak correlations between histopathology and liver biochemistry were shown. Applying the Nakanuma, Ishak, and Ludwig histopathological staging systems is feasible and clinically relevant given their association with transplant-free survival and time to LTx. This suggests that these staging systems could be likely candidates for surrogate endpoints and stratification purposes in clinical trials in PSC. Copyright © 2015 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Pretreatment Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score Predicts Clinical Outcomes After Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kishi, Takahiro; Matsuo, Yukinori, E-mail: ymatsuo@kuhp.kyoto-u.ac.jp; Ueki, Nami; Iizuka, Yusuke; Nakamura, Akira; Sakanaka, Katsuyuki; Mizowaki, Takashi; Hiraoka, Masahiro

    2015-07-01

    Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who received stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). Methods and Materials: Data from 165 patients who underwent SBRT for stage I NSCLC with histologic confirmation from January 1999 to September 2010 were collected retrospectively. Factors, including age, performance status, histology, Charlson comorbidity index, mGPS, and recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) class based on sex and T stage, were evaluated with regard to overall survival (OS) using the Cox proportional hazards model. The impact of the mGPS on cause of death and failure patterns was also analyzed. Results: The 3-year OS was 57.9%, with a median follow-up time of 3.5 years. A higher mGPS correlated significantly with poor OS (P<.001). The 3-year OS of lower mGPS patients was 66.4%, whereas that of higher mGPS patients was 44.5%. On multivariate analysis, mGPS and RPA class were significant factors for OS. A higher mGPS correlated significantly with lung cancer death (P=.019) and distant metastasis (P=.013). Conclusions: The mGPS was a significant predictor of clinical outcomes for SBRT in NSCLC patients.

  7. Shanghai Score: A Prognostic and Adjuvant Treatment-evaluating System Constructed for Chinese Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Curative Resection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui-Chuan Sun

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: Based on the largest cohort up to date, we established Shanghai Score – an individualized outcome prediction system specifically designed for Chinese HCC patients after surgery. The Shanghai Score web server provides an easily accessible tool to stratify the prognosis of patients undergoing liver resection for HCC.

  8. Neutrophil/Lymphocyte Ratio, Lymphocyte/Monocyte Ratio, and Absolute Lymphocyte Count/Absolute Monocyte Count Prognostic Score in Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma: Useful Prognostic Tools in the Rituximab Era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Ching-Liang; Lu, Chieh-Sheng; Chen, Jia-Hong; Chen, Yu-Guang; Huang, Tzu-Chuan; Wu, Yi-Ying

    2015-06-01

    The neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte/monocyte ratio (LMR), and absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count prognostic score (ALC/AMC PS) have been described as the most useful prognostic tools for patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). We retrospectively analyzed 148 Taiwanese patients with newly diagnosed diffuse large B-cell lymphoma under rituximab (R)-CHOP-like regimens from January 2001 to December 2010 at the Tri-Service General Hospital and investigated the utility of these inexpensive tools in our patients. In a univariate analysis, the NLR, LMR, and ALC/AMC PS had significant prognostic value in our DLBCL patients (NLR: 5-year progression-free survival [PFS], P = 0.001; 5-year overall survival [OS], P = 0.007. LMR: PFS, P = 0.003; OS, P = 0.05. PFS, P < 0.001; OS, P < 0.001). In a separate multivariate analysis, the ALC/AMC PS appeared to interact less with the other clinical factors but retained statistical significance in the survival analysis (PFS, P = 0.023; OS, P = 0.017). The akaike information criterion (AIC) analysis produced scores of 388.773 in the NLR, 387.625 in the LMR, and 372.574 in the ALC/AMC PS. The results suggested that the ALC/AMC PS appears to be more reliable than the NLR and LMR and may provide additional prognostic information when used in conjunction with the International Prognostic Index.

  9. Valor prognóstico do Escore de Risco GRACE versus Escore de Risco TIMI em síndromes coronarianas agudas Valor pronóstico del score de riesgo GRACE versus score de riesgo TIMI en síndromes coronarios agudos Prognostic Value of GRACE Scores versus TIMI Score in acute coronary syndromes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis C. L. Correia

    2010-05-01

    ótesis de que el Score de Riesgo GRACE tiene superior valor pronóstico hospitalario, comparado con el Score TIMI en pacientes ingresados con SCA. MÉTODOS: Fueron incluidos individuos con angina inestable o infarto de miocardio sin supradesnivel del segmento ST, consecutivamente internados en Unidad Coronaria entre agosto de 2007 y enero de 2009. RESULTADOS: Fueron estudiados 154 pacientes, edad 71 ± 13 años, el 56% del sexo femenino, mediana de GRACE de 117 y mediana de TIMI de 3. Durante el período de internación, la incidencia de eventos fue del 8,4% (12 fallecimientos y 1 infarto no fatal. El test de Hosmer-Lemeshow aplicado al Score GRACE presentó χ² de 5,3 (P = 0,72, mientras que el Score TIMI presentó χ² de 1,85 (P = 0,60. De esta forma, ambos scores presentaron buena calibración. En cuanto al análisis de discriminación, el Score GRACE presentó estadística-C de 0,91 (95% IC = 0,86 - 0,97, significativamente superior a la estadística-C de 0,69 del Score TIMI (95% IC = 0,55 - 0,84 - P = 0,02 para diferencia entre los scores. CONCLUSIÓN: Con relación a la predicción de eventos hospitalarios en pacientes con SCA, el Score GRACE tiene capacidad pronóstica superior al compararlo con el Score TIMI.BACKGROUND: Although the TIMI score is the one most frequently used in acute coronary syndromes (ACS without ST-segment elevation, the GRACE score has potential prognostic superiority, as it was created based on an observational registry, part of the variables is treated in a semi-quantitative form and renal function is taken into account in its calculation. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that the GRACE risk score has superior in-hospital prognostic value, when compared to the TIMI score in patients admitted with ACS. METHODS: Individuals with unstable angina or myocardial infarction without ST-segment elevation, consecutively admitted at the Coronary Unit between August 2007 and January 2009, were included in the study. RESULTS: A total of 154 patients

  10. Development and external validation of a clinical prognostic score for death in visceral leishmaniasis patients in a high HIV co-infection burden area in Ethiopia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Abongomera

    Full Text Available In Ethiopia, case fatality rates among subgroups of visceral leishmaniasis (VL patients are high. A clinical prognostic score for death in VL patients could contribute to optimal management and reduction of these case fatality rates. We aimed to identify predictors of death from VL, and to develop and externally validate a clinical prognostic score for death in VL patients, in a high HIV co-infection burden area in Ethiopia.We conducted a retrospective cohort study in north west Ethiopia. Predictors with an adjusted likelihood ratio ≥1.5 or ≤0.67 were retained to calculate the predictor score. The derivation cohort consisted of 1686 VL patients treated at an upgraded health center and the external validation cohort consisted of 404 VL patients treated in hospital. There were 99 deaths in the derivation cohort and 53 deaths in the external validation cohort. The predictors of death were: age >40 years (score +1; HIV seropositive (score +1; HIV seronegative (score -1; hemoglobin ≤6.5 g/dl (score +1; bleeding (score +1; jaundice (score +1; edema (score +1; ascites (score +2 and tuberculosis (score +1. The total predictor score per patient ranged from -1 to +5. A score of -1, indicated a low risk of death (1.0%, a score of 0 an intermediate risk of death (3.8% and a score of +1 to +5, a high risk of death (10.4-85.7%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.79-0.87 in derivation, and 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.83 in external validation.The overall performance of the score was good. The score can enable the early detection of VL cases at high risk of death, which can inform operational, clinical management guidelines, and VL program management. Implementation of focused strategies could contribute to optimal management and reduction of the case fatality rates.

  11. Comparison of discrimination and prognostic value of two US Doppler scoring systems in rheumatoid arthritis patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ellegaard, Karen; Terslev, Lene; Christensen, Robin

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of this paper is to investigate sensitivity to change (SRM), predictive validity and discriminative ability of a quantitative (QS) and a semi-quantitative (SQS) Doppler ultrasound scoring systems in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treated with anti-TNF-α therapy. METHODS......: RA patients with wrist joint affection treated with TNF-α inhibitor were followed for one year. The wrist was examined with Doppler before initiating therapy and after one year. DAS28 was determined at both visits. One person trained in the SQS system and one in the QS system evaluated the anonymised...... images. The SRM, predictive validity and discriminative ability for both systems were calculated using DAS28 as the measure of disease improvement. RESULTS: Fourty-six patients with RA (80% females) were included. The mean Doppler activity at baseline was QS:24.4% (SD=17.7%) and SQS:2.0 (SD=0...

  12. NCCN-IPI score-independent prognostic potential of pretreatment uric acid levels for clinical outcome of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prochazka, Katharina T; Melchardt, Thomas; Posch, Florian; Schlick, Konstantin; Deutsch, Alexander; Beham-Schmid, Christine; Weiss, Lukas; Gary, Thomas; Neureiter, Daniel; Klieser, Eckhard; Greil, Richard; Neumeister, Peter; Egle, Alexander; Pichler, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Background: Blood-based parameters are gaining increasing interest as potential prognostic biomarkers in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). The aim of this study was to comprehensively evaluate the prognostic significance of pretreatment plasma uric acid levels in patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL. Methods: The clinical course of 539 DLBCL patients, diagnosed and treated between 2004 and 2013 at two Austrian high-volume centres with rituximab-based immunochemotherapy was evaluated retrospectively. The prognostic influence of uric acid on overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were studied including multi-state modelling, and analysis of conditional survival. Results: Five-year OS and PFS were 50.4% (95% CI: 39.2–60.6) and 44.0% (33.4–54.0) in patients with uric acid levels above the 75th percentile of the uric acid distribution (Q3, cut-off: 6.8 mg dl−1), and 66.2% (60.4–71.5) and 59.6% (53.7–65.0%) in patients with lower levels (log-rank P=0.002 and P=0.0045, respectively). In univariable time-to-event analysis, elevated uric acid levels were associated with a worse PFS (hazard ratio (HR) per 1 log increase in uric acid 1.47, 95% CI: 1.10–1.97, P=0.009) and a worse OS (HR=1.60, 95% CI: 1.16–2.19, P=0.004). These associations prevailed upon multivariable adjustment for the NCCN-IPI score. Uric acid levels significantly improved the predictive performance of the R-IPI and NCCN-IPI scores, and in multi-state analysis, it emerged as a highly significant predictor of an increased risk of death without developing recurrence (transition-HR=4.47, 95% CI: 2.17–9.23, Puric acid levels predict poor long-term outcomes in DLBCL patients beyond the NCCN-IPI risk index. PMID:27764838

  13. Design and Validation of the GI-NEC Score to Prognosticate Overall Survival in Patients With High-Grade Gastrointestinal Neuroendocrine Carcinomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamarca, Angela; Walter, Thomas; Pavel, Marianne; Borbath, Ivan; Freis, Patricia; Nuñez, Barbara; Childs, Alexa; McNamara, Mairéad G; Hubner, Richard A; Garcia-Carbonero, Rocio; Meyer, Tim; Valle, Juan W; Barriuso, Jorge

    2017-01-01

    Prognostic markers for risk stratification of patients with gastrointestinal high-grade neuroendocrine carcinomas (GI-NECs) are lacking; we designed and validated a prognostic score for overall survival (OS). Consecutive patients diagnosed in five neuroendocrine specialist European centers were included. Patients were divided into three cohorts: a training cohort (TC), an external validation cohort (EVC), and a prospective validation cohort (PVC). Prognostic factors were identified by log-rank test, Cox-regression, and logistic regression analyses. The derived score was internally and externally validated. All statistical tests were two-sided. Of 395 patients screened, 313 were eligible (TC = 109 patients, EVC = 184 patients, and PVC = 20 patients). The derived prognostic score included five variables: presence of liver metastases, alkaline phosphatase (ALK), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS), and Ki67. In multivariable analysis, the score was prognostic for OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.47 to 2.35, P EVC and PVC, in which our score was able to prognosticate for OS when adjusted for other prognostic variables in the multivariable analysis (HR = 1.85, 95% CI = 1.27 to 2.71, P = .001; and HR = 4.51, 95% CI = 1.87 to 10.87, P = .001, respectively). The score classified patients into two groups with incremental risk of death: group A (0-2 points, 181 patients [63.9%], median OS = 19.4 months, 95% CI = 16.1 to 25.1) and group B (3-6 points, 102 patients [36.1%], median OS = 5.2 months, 95% CI = 3.6 to 6.9). The GI-NEC score identifies two distinct patient cohorts; it provides a tool for clinicians when making treatment decisions and may be used as a stratification factor in future clinical trials. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Implementation of EuroSCORE II as an adjunct to APACHE II model and SOFA score, for refining the prognostic accuracy in cardiac surgical patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsaousi, G G; Pitsis, A A; Ioannidis, G D; Pourzitaki, C K; Yannacou-Peftoulidou, M N; Vasilakos, D G

    2015-12-01

    The aim of this paper was to assess the comparable applicability of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) and Sequential Organ Failure (SOFA) scores, in cardiac surgical population, on the basis of morbidity and mortality. EuroSCORE II, APACHE II score and SOFA score derivatives such as TMS (total maximum SOFA), MaxSOFA (single-day maximum total), SOFA 1 (admission SOFA), ΔSOFA (TMS minus SOFA 1), ΔmaxSOFA (MaxSOFA minus SOFA 1) and mean SOFA (daily SOFA to ICU stay), were prospectively calculated for 1058 consecutive patients admitted to postcardiac surgery intensive care unit (ICU). The study endpoints were length of ICU stay (LOS-ICU) and hospital mortality. A disproportionate elevation of the studied algorithms was associated with prolonged LOS-ICU (PAPACHE II in cardiac surgical population. Thus, EuroSCORE II emerges as an imperative adjunct to ICU-based APACHE II and SOFA algorithms as it enables risk stratification, morbidity and mortality prediction even from preoperative assessment.

  15. Prognostic value of an ocular trauma score in ocular firecracker trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Ying; Zhu, Yu

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to report the incidence and management of ocular firecracker trauma and to assess the predictive value of an Ocular Trauma Score (OTS) in ocular firecracker trauma. The study includes consecutive case study and retrospective analysis of ocular firecracker trauma. Numerical values rendered to the OTS variables (visual acuity, rupture, endophthalmitis, perforating or penetrating injury, retinal detachment, and afferent pupillary defect) at presentation were summated and converted to OTS categories. The likelihood of the final visual acuities in each category were calculated. The sensitivity and specificity of OTS were also determined. Forty-eight patients (54 eyes) were enrolled in the study. Male patients accounted for 85.4%. Of the total patients, 62.5% were younger than 15 years. Bystanders accounted for 47.9%. The average follow up was 18.5±3.6 months. The most common clinical manifestation was ocular penetrating or perforating injury. Of the total number of patients, 53.7% had best-corrected vision, at the time of their last follow up, ranging from 20/50-20/200. The OTS has 100% sensitivity and specificity to predict nonlight perception, light perception/hand motion, and 1/200-19/200. The OTS has 45% sensitivity and 100% specificity to predict vision of 20/200-20/50. The OTS has 100% sensitivity and 65% specificity to predict vision of ≥20/40. The clinical manifestations of ocular firecracker trauma in Zhengzhou are more severe than in other countries, but similar to reports of other cities of comparable size to that in China. The OTS has good predictive value for ocular firecracker trauma with 100% sensitivity and specificity to predict a final vision of nonlight perception, light perception/hand motion, and 1/200-19/200.

  16. Does the RIFLE Classification Improve Prognostic Value of the APACHE II Score in Critically Ill Patients?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahrhaftig, Kátia M; Correia, Luis C L; Matias, Denise; De Souza, Carlos A M

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. The RIFLE classification defines three severity criteria for acute kidney injury (AKI): risk, injury, and failure. It was associated with mortality according to the gradation of AKI severity. However, it is not known if the APACHE II score, associated with the RIFLE classification, results in greater discriminatory power in relation to mortality in critical patients. Objective. To analyze whether the RIFLE classification adds value to the performance of APACHE II in predicting mortality in critically ill patients. Methods. An observational prospective cohort of 200 patients admitted to the ICU from July 2010 to July 2011. Results. The age of the sample was 66 (±16.7) years, 53.3% female. ICU mortality was 23.5%. The severity of AKI presented higher risk of death: class risk (RR = 1.89 CI:0.97-3.38, P = 0.001), grade injury (RR = 3.7 CI:1.71-8.08, P = 0.001), and class failure (RR = 4.79 CI:2.10-10.6, P = 0.001). The APACHE II had C-statistics of 0.75, 95% (CI:0.68-0.80, P = 0.001) and 0.80 (95% CI:0.74 to 0.86, P = 0.001) after being incorporated into the RIFLE classification in relation to prediction of death. In the comparison between AUROCs, P = 0.03. Conclusion. The severity of AKI, defined by the RIFLE classification, was a risk marker for mortality in critically ill patients, and improved the performance of APACHE II in predicting the mortality in this population.

  17. Does the RIFLE Classification Improve Prognostic Value of the APACHE II Score in Critically Ill Patients?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kátia M. Wahrhaftig

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The RIFLE classification defines three severity criteria for acute kidney injury (AKI: risk, injury, and failure. It was associated with mortality according to the gradation of AKI severity. However, it is not known if the APACHE II score, associated with the RIFLE classification, results in greater discriminatory power in relation to mortality in critical patients. Objective. To analyze whether the RIFLE classification adds value to the performance of APACHE II in predicting mortality in critically ill patients. Methods. An observational prospective cohort of 200 patients admitted to the ICU from July 2010 to July 2011. Results. The age of the sample was 66 (±16.7 years, 53.3% female. ICU mortality was 23.5%. The severity of AKI presented higher risk of death: class risk (RR = 1.89 CI:0.97–3.38, , grade injury (RR = 3.7 CI:1.71–8.08, , and class failure (RR = 4.79 CI:2.10–10.6, . The APACHE II had C-statistics of 0.75, 95% (CI:0.68–0.80, and 0.80 (95% CI:0.74 to 0.86, after being incorporated into the RIFLE classification in relation to prediction of death. In the comparison between AUROCs, . Conclusion. The severity of AKI, defined by the RIFLE classification, was a risk marker for mortality in critically ill patients, and improved the performance of APACHE II in predicting the mortality in this population.

  18. Prognostic Value of Coronary Computed Tomography (CT) Angiography and Coronary Artery Calcium Score Performed Before Revascularization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujimoto, Shinichiro; Kondo, Takeshi; Kumamaru, Kanako K; Shinozaki, Tomohiro; Takamura, Kazuhisa; Kawaguchi, Yuko; Matsumori, Rie; Hiki, Makoto; Miyauchi, Katsumi; Daida, Hiroyuki; Rybicki, Frank J

    2015-08-21

    Cardiac events after revascularization are equally attributable to recurrence at site of culprit lesions and development of nonculprit lesions. We evaluated the hypothesis that coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) performed before revascularization predicts cardiac events after treatment. Among 2238 consecutive patients without known coronary artery disease who underwent coronary CT angiography and CACS, 359 patients underwent revascularization within 30 days after CT; in 337 of 359 (93.9%) follow-up clinical information was available. In addition to known cardiac risk factors, CT findings were evaluated as predictors of cardiac events after revascularization: CACS and the presence of CT-verified high-risk plaque (CT-HRP). Improvement of predictive accuracy by including CT findings was evaluated from a discrimination (Harrell's C-statistics) standpoint. During the follow-up period (median: 673, interquartile range: 47 to 1529 days), a total of 98 cardiac events occurred. Cox proportional hazard model revealed that age, diabetes, triglyceride, CACS, and nonculprit CT-HRP were significant predictors of overall cardiac events. Although not statistically significant, discriminatory power was greater for the model with CACS (C-stat: 63.2%) and the model with both CACS and CT-HRP (65.8%) compared to the model including neither CACS nor CT-HRP (60.7%). High CACS and the presence of nonculprit CT-HRP performed before revascularization are significant predictors of cardiac events after revascularization. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  19. Early interim 2-[18F]fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography is prognostically superior to international prognostic score in advanced-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma: a report from a joint Italian-Danish study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loft, Annika; Gallamini, Andrea; Hutchings, Martin

    2007-01-01

    PURPOSE: Starting from November 2001, 260 newly diagnosed patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) were consecutively enrolled in parallel Italian and Danish prospective trials to evaluate the prognostic role of an early interim 2-[(18)F]fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET...... the prognostic value of IPS and emerges as the single most important tool for planning of risk-adapted treatment in advanced HL.......-PET) scan and the International Prognostic Score (IPS) in advanced HL, treated with conventional ABVD (doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine) therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Most patients (n = 190) presented with advanced disease (stages IIB through IVB), whereas 70 presented in stage IIA...

  20. Stage Separation Failure: Model Based Diagnostics and Prognostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luchinsky, Dmitry; Hafiychuk, Vasyl; Kulikov, Igor; Smelyanskiy, Vadim; Patterson-Hine, Ann; Hanson, John; Hill, Ashley

    2010-01-01

    Safety of the next-generation space flight vehicles requires development of an in-flight Failure Detection and Prognostic (FD&P) system. Development of such system is challenging task that involves analysis of many hard hitting engineering problems across the board. In this paper we report progress in the development of FD&P for the re-contact fault between upper stage nozzle and the inter-stage caused by the first stage and upper stage separation failure. A high-fidelity models and analytical estimations are applied to analyze the following sequence of events: (i) structural dynamics of the nozzle extension during the impact; (ii) structural stability of the deformed nozzle in the presence of the pressure and temperature loads induced by the hot gas flow during engine start up; and (iii) the fault induced thrust changes in the steady burning regime. The diagnostic is based on the measurements of the impact torque. The prognostic is based on the analysis of the correlation between the actuator signal and fault-induced changes in the nozzle structural stability and thrust.

  1. Traumatic extremity arterial injury in children: Epidemiology, diagnostics, treatment and prognostic value of Mangled Extremity Severity Score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lange Nadine

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Traumatic paediatric arterial injuries are a great challenge due to low incidence and specific characteristics of paediatric anatomy and physiology. The aim of the present study was to investigate their epidemiology, diagnostic and therapeutic options and complications. Furthermore, the prognostic value of the Mangled Extremity Severity Score (MESS was evaluated. Methods In a retrospective clinical study 44 children aged 9.0 ± 3.2 years treated for traumatic extremity arterial lesions in our Level I trauma center between 1971 and 2006 were enrolled. Exclusion criteria were age > 14, venous and iatrogenic vascular injury. Demographic data, mechanism of injury, severity of arterial lesions (by Vollmar and MESS, diagnostic and therapeutic management, complications and outcome were evaluated. Results The most commonly injured vessel was the femoral artery (25% followed by the brachial artery (22.7%. The mechanism of injury was penetrating (31.8%, isolated severe blunt extremity trauma (29.6%, multiple trauma (25% and humeral supracondylar fractures (13.6%. In 63.6% no specific vascular diagnostic procedure was performed in favour of emergency surgery. Surgical reconstructive strategies were preferred (68.2%. A MESS Conclusions Traumatic paediatric vascular injuries are very rare. The most common situations of vascular lesions in childhood were penetrating injuries and fractures of the extremities either as isolated injuries or in multiply injured patients. In paediatric patients, the MESS could serve as a basis for decision making for limb salvage or amputation.

  2. Physics based Degradation Modeling and Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors under Electrical Overstress Conditions

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper proposes a physics based degradation modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors are critical components in...

  3. Prognostics Health Management and Physics based failure Models for Electrolytic Capacitors

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper proposes first principles based modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors and MOSFETs are the two major...

  4. Poor prognostic value of the modified Mallampati score: a meta-analysis involving 177 088 patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundstrøm, L H; Vester-Andersen, M; Møller, Ann

    2011-01-01

    searches. The pooled estimates from the meta-analyses were calculated based on a random-effects model and a summary receiver operating curve. Meta-regression analyses were performed to explore sources of possible heterogeneity between the studies. The summary receiver operating curve demonstrated an area...... positive and negative likelihood ratios were 4.13 (CI, 3.60-4.66) and 0.70 (CI, 0.65-0.75), respectively. The meta-analyses had statistical and clinical heterogeneity ranging from 87.2% to 99.4%. Meta-regression analyses did not identify any significant explanation of the heterogeneity. We conclude...

  5. Short- and Long-Term Prognostic Utility of the HEART Score in Patients Evaluated in the Emergency Department for Possible Acute Coronary Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Tarun; Nowak, Richard; Hudson, Michael; Frisoli, Tiberio; Jacobsen, Gordon; McCord, James

    2016-06-01

    The HEART score is a risk-stratification tool that was developed and validated for patients evaluated for possible acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in the emergency department (ED). We sought to determine the short-term and long-term prognostic utility of the HEART score. A retrospective single-center analysis of 947 patients evaluated for possible ACS in the ED in 1999 was conducted. Patients were followed for major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) at 30 days: death, acute myocardial infarction, or revascularization procedure. All-cause mortality was assessed at 5 years. The HEART score was compared with the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score. At 30 days, 14% (135/947) of patients had an MACE: 48 deaths (5%), 84 acute myocardial infarctions (9%), and 48 (5%) revascularization procedures. The MACE rate in patients with HEART score ≤3 was 0.6% (1/175) involving a revascularization procedure, 9.5% (53/557) in patients with HEART score between 4 and 6, and 38% (81/215) with HEART score ≥7. The C-statistic for the HEART score was 0.82 and 0.68 for the TIMI score for predicting 30-day MACE (P < 0.05). Patients with HEART score ≤3 had lower 5-year mortality rate compared with those with TIMI score of 0 (10.6% vs. 20.5%, P = 0.02). The HEART score is a valuable risk-stratification tool in predicting not only short-term MACE but also long-term mortality in patients evaluated for possible ACS in the ED. The HEART score had a superior prognostic value compared with the TIMI score.

  6. Prognostic significance of multiple-detector computed tomography in conjunction with TIMI risk score for patients with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noda, Mayumi; Takagi, Atsushi; Kuwatsuru, Ryohei; Mitsuhashi, Norio; Kasanuki, Hiroshi

    2008-05-01

    Risk stratification among patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) has been made by clinical scoring. Recently, multiple-detector computed tomography (MDCT) appeared to provide noninvasive coronary angiography (CAG). To clarify the prognostic significance of MDCT, we aimed to evaluate the clinical utility of MDCT in the early management and in predicting the long-term prognosis of NSTE-ACS with low to intermediate risk. Among 84 consecutive patients with NSTEACS, risk stratification using a TIMI risk score was done. A total of 48 patients were categorized as low to intermediate risk. Multiple-detector CT was performed in 30 patients using 16-slice MDCT. MDCT detected coronary stenoses in 18 patients. Compared to invasive CAG, MDCT successfully depicted the coronary stenosis (P TIMI risk score appeared to demonstrate prognostic significance in patients with NSTE-ACS.

  7. Comparison of the prognostic value of normal regadenoson with normal adenosine myocardial perfusion imaging with propensity score matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Fahad M; Hage, Fadi G; Ahmed, Ali; Dean, Phillip J; Raslan, Saleem; Heo, Jaekyeong; Iskandrian, Ami E

    2012-10-01

    The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that patients with normal regadenoson myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) have a low rate of cardiac events, similar to patients with normal adenosine MPI. Regadenoson, a new selective adenosine A(2A) receptor agonist, is now a widely used stress agent for MPI. The low rate of cardiac events in patients with normal adenosine MPI is well-documented, but the prognostic implications of a normal regadenoson MPI have not been examined and compared with those with adenosine. Data on primary composite endpoint (cardiac death, myocardial infarction, and coronary revascularization) were collected for 2,000 patients (1,000 regadenoson, and 1,000 adenosine stress) with normal myocardial perfusion and left ventricular ejection fraction referred for vasodilator MPI. In addition, propensity scores were used to assemble a balanced cohort of 505 pairs of patients who were balanced on 36 baseline characteristics. The primary endpoint occurred in 21 (2.1%; 1.1%/year) patients in the regadenoson group and 33 (3.3%; 1.7%/year) patients in the adenosine group (hazard ratio [HR] for regadenoson vs. adenosine: 0.62; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.36 to 1.08; p = 0.090). In the propensity-matched pairs, the primary endpoint occurred in 7 (1.4%; 0.7%/year) patients in the regadenoson group and 13 (2.6%; 1.3%/year) patients in the adenosine group (matched HR: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.23 to 1.48; p = 0.257). Cardiac deaths were infrequent in the entire sample and in the propensity-matched groups; the cardiac death rate was 0.9%/year and 1.15%/year in the regadenoson and adenosine groups (HR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.42 to 1.43; p = 0.404) in the pre-match sample and 0.5%/year and 0.7%/year in the matched groups, respectively (HR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.25 to 2.73; p = 0.763). Major cardiac events are infrequent in patients with normal regadenoson MPI. These findings provide assurance that normal MPI using a simpler stress protocol with regadenoson provides prognostic

  8. Does high-sensitivity C-reactive protein add prognostic value to the TIMI-Risk Score in individuals with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Luis C L; Lima, José C; Rocha, Mário S; D'Oliveira Junior, Argemiro; Péricles Esteves, J

    2007-01-01

    C-reactive protein (CRP) measured at hospital arrival of patients with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes (ACS) may add prognostic information to the TIMI-Risk Score. Eighty-six consecutive patients admitted with unstable angina or non-ST-elevation acute myocardial infarction and symptoms onset within the prior 48 h were included. Recurrent cardiovascular events during hospitalization were defined as non-fatal myocardial infarction or death. Serum CRP was measured immediately at hospital arrival and its prognostic value in relation to in-hospital cardiovascular events was tested by the area under the ROC curve and adjusted for TIMI risk predictors by logistic regression analysis. In addition, a CRP modified TIMI-Risk score was created by adding 2 points if CRP greater than the cut-off proposed by the ROC curve analysis. The accuracy of this new score was compared with the usual TIMI-Risk Score. A significant predictive value of CRP in relation to in-hospital cardiovascular events was indicated by an area under the ROC curve of 0.80 (95% CI=0.66 to 0.93, p=0.009). C-reactive protein cut-off point of best prognostic performance was 7.2 mg/l. In the multivariate analysis, increased CRP (>7.2 mg/l) remained a significant predictor of events after adjustment for TIMI risk predictors (OR=14; 95% CI=1.6-121; p=0.018). The area under the ROC curve for the TIMI-Risk Score was 0.87 (95% CI=0.76-0.99, p=0.001). The addition of CRP to the TIMI-Risk Score improved its prognostic value (area under the ROC curve=0.93; 95% CI=0.87-0.99, pscore is demonstrated by a higher specificity (86% vs. 63%, pTIMI-Risk Score. CRP measured at admission of patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes adds prognostic information to the TIMI-Risk Score. Additionally, the incorporation of this variable into the TIMI-Risk Score calculation is an effective manner to utilize CRP for risk stratification.

  9. Prognostic Utility of a Self-Reported Depression Questionnaire versus Clinician-Based Assessment on Renal Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Nishank; Carmody, Thomas; Minhajuddin, Abu T; Toups, Marisa; Trivedi, Madhukar H; Rush, Augustus John; Hedayati, S Susan

    2016-01-01

    The prognostic utility of self-administered depression scales in chronic kidney disease (CKD) independent of a clinician-based major depressive disorder (MDD) diagnosis is neither clearly established nor are the optimal cutoff scores for predicting outcomes. The overlap between symptoms of depression and chronic disease raises the question of whether a cutoff score on a depression scale can be substituted for a time-consuming diagnostic interview to prognosticate risk. The 16-item Quick Inventory of Depression Symptomatology-Self Report scale (QIDS-SR16) was administered to 266 consecutive outpatients with non-dialysis CKD, followed prospectively for 12 months for an apriori composite outcome of death or dialysis or hospitalization. Association of QIDS-SR16 best cutoff score, determined by receiver/responder operating characteristics curves, with outcomes was investigated using survival analysis. The effect modification of an interview-based clinician MDD diagnosis on this association was ascertained. There were 126 composite events. A QIDS-SR16 cutoff ≥8 had the best prognostic accuracy, hazards ratio (HR) = 1.77, 95% CI 1.24-2.53, p = 0.002. This cutoff remained significantly associated with outcomes even after controlling for comorbidities, estimated glomerular filtration rate, hemoglobin and serum albumin, adjusted HR (aHR) = 1.80, 95% CI 1.23-2.62, p = 0.002, and performed similarly to a clinician-based MDD diagnosis (aHR = 1.72, 95% CI 1.14-2.68). Adjustment for MDD conferred the association of QIDS-SR16 with outcomes no longer significant. QIDS-SR16 cutoff ≥8 adds to the prognostic information available to practicing nephrologists during routine clinic visits from comorbidities and laboratory data. This cutoff score performs similar to a clinician diagnosis of MDD and provides a feasible and time-saving alternative to an interview-based MDD diagnosis for determining prognosis in CKD patients. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  10. Prognostic impact of nutritional status assessed by the Controlling Nutritional Status score in patients with stable coronary artery disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Hideki; Dohi, Tomotaka; Miyauchi, Katsumi; Doi, Shinichiro; Konishi, Hirokazu; Naito, Ryo; Tsuboi, Shuta; Ogita, Manabu; Kasai, Takatoshi; Okazaki, Shinya; Isoda, Kikuo; Suwa, Satoru; Daida, Hiroyuki

    2017-11-01

    Recently, malnutrition has been shown to be related to worse clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure. However, the association between nutritional status and clinical outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) remains unclear. We investigated the prognostic value of malnutrition assessed by the Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT; range 0-12, higher = worse, consisting of serum albumin, cholesterol and lymphocytes) score in patients with CAD. The CONUT score was measured on admission in a total of 1987 patients with stable CAD who underwent elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) between 2000 and 2011. Patients were divided into two groups according to their CONUT score (0-1 vs. ≥2). The incidence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE), including all-cause death and non-fatal myocardial infarction, was evaluated. The median CONUT score was 1 (interquartile range 0-2). During the median follow-up of 7.4 years, 342 MACE occurred (17.2%). Kaplan-Meier curves revealed that patients with high CONUT scores had higher rates of MACE (log-rank p Nutritional status assessed by the CONUT score was significantly associated with long-term clinical outcomes in patients with CAD. Pre-PCI assessment of the CONUT score may provide useful prognostic information.

  11. Additive prognostic value of NT-proBNP over TIMI risk score in intermediate-risk patients with acute coronary syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eren, Nihan Kahya; Ertaş, Faruk; Yüksek, Umit; Cakir, Cayan; Nazli, Cem; Köseoğlu, Mehmet; Ergene, Oktay

    2009-01-01

    We evaluated the prognostic value of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) for further risk stratification of intermediate-risk patients with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS). The study included 137 intermediate-risk patients (85 men, 52 women; mean age 62+/-11 years) with ACS, based on the TIMI risk score (scores 3 to 5). Serum NT-proBNP levels were measured 12 hours after the last anginal episode. The patients were divided into four groups according to the following NT-proBNP quartiles: 17-310 pg/ml (n=34), 313-688 pg/ml (n=35), 724-2,407 pg/ml (n=34), and 2,575-24,737 pg/ml (n=34). Primary endpoint of the study was mortality. The mean follow-up was 21.8+/-7.1 months. There were 27 deaths (19.7%), 14 of which were in the 4th quartile (4th vs 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quartiles: p=0.02, p=0.01, and pTIMI risk score, ejection fraction, and age. Patients who died were older (65.6+/-11.9 years vs 60.7+/-11.0 years; p=0.048) and had a lower ejection fraction (46.3+/-11% vs 54.1+/-9.8%; pTIMI risk scores of 3, 4, and 5 were 25.9%, 29.6%, and 44.4%, respectively (p=0.58 for TIMI 3 vs 4; p=0.001 for TIMI 3 vs 5; p=0.013 for TIMI 4 vs 5). Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that only TIMI risk score was an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.4-3.8, p=0.001). NT-proBNP has an additive predictive value over TIMI risk score in predicting long-term mortality in intermediate-risk patients with ACS.

  12. Prognostic Model for Resected Squamous-Cell Lung Cancer: External Multicenter Validation and Propensity Score Analysis exploring the Impact of Adjuvant and Neoadjuvant Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilotto, Sara; Sperduti, Isabella; Leuzzi, Giovanni; Chiappetta, Marco; Mucilli, Felice; Ratto, Giovanni Battista; Lococo, Filippo; Filosso, Pierluigi; Spaggiari, Lorenzo; Novello, Silvia; Milella, Michele; Santo, Antonio; Scarpa, Aldo; Infante, Maurizio; Tortora, Giampaolo; Facciolo, Francesco; Bria, Emilio

    2017-12-18

    We developed one of the first clinicopathological prognostic nomograms for resected squamous cell lung cancer (SQLC). Herein, we validate the model in a larger multicenter cohort and we explore the impact of adjuvant/neoadjuvant treatment (ANT). Resected SQLC patients from January 2002 to December 2012 in six institutions were eligible. To each patient was assigned a prognostic score based on those clinicopathological factors included in the model (age, T-descriptor according to TNM 7th edition, lymph nodes, grading). Kaplan-Meier analysis for disease-free/cancer-specific/overall survival (DFS/CSS/OS) was performed according to three-class risk model. Harrell's C-statistics were adopted for model validation. The effect of ANT was adjusted with propensity score (PS). Data from 1,375 patients was gathered (median age: 68 years; male: 86.8%; T-descriptor 1-2/3-4: 71.7%/24.9%; nodes negative/positive: 53.4%/46.6%; grading 1-2/3: 35.0%/41.1%). Data for survival analysis was available for 1,097 patients. With a median follow-up of 55 months, patients at low risk had a significantly longer DFS versus intermediate (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.40-2.01) and high risk (HR 2.46, 95% CI 1.90-3.19), as well as for CSS (HR 2.46, 95% CI 1.80-3.36; HR 4.30, 95% CI 2.92-6.33) and OS (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.48-2.17; HR 2.33, 95% CI 1.76-3.07). A trend in favor of ANT was observed for intermediate/high risk patients, particularly for CSS (p=0.06; 5-year CSS 72.7% versus 60.8%). A model based on a combination of easily available clinicopathological factors effectively stratifies resected SQLC patients in three-risk classes. Copyright © 2017 International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Neutrophil/Lymphocyte Ratio, Lymphocyte/Monocyte Ratio, and Absolute Lymphocyte Count/Absolute Monocyte Count Prognostic Score in Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Ching-Liang; Lu, Chieh-Sheng; Chen, Jia-Hong; Chen, Yu-Guang; Huang, Tzu-Chuan; Wu, Yi-Ying

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte/monocyte ratio (LMR), and absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count prognostic score (ALC/AMC PS) have been described as the most useful prognostic tools for patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). We retrospectively analyzed 148 Taiwanese patients with newly diagnosed diffuse large B-cell lymphoma under rituximab (R)-CHOP-like regimens from January 2001 to December 2010 at the Tri-Service General Hospital and investigated the utility of these inexpensive tools in our patients. In a univariate analysis, the NLR, LMR, and ALC/AMC PS had significant prognostic value in our DLBCL patients (NLR: 5-year progression-free survival [PFS], P = 0.001; 5-year overall survival [OS], P = 0.007. LMR: PFS, P = 0.003; OS, P = 0.05. ALC/AMC PS: PFS, P < 0.001; OS, P < 0.001). In a separate multivariate analysis, the ALC/AMC PS appeared to interact less with the other clinical factors but retained statistical significance in the survival analysis (PFS, P = 0.023; OS, P = 0.017). The akaike information criterion (AIC) analysis produced scores of 388.773 in the NLR, 387.625 in the LMR, and 372.574 in the ALC/AMC PS. The results suggested that the ALC/AMC PS appears to be more reliable than the NLR and LMR and may provide additional prognostic information when used in conjunction with the International Prognostic Index. PMID:26091479

  14. A three-gene expression-based risk score can refine the European LeukemiaNet AML classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilop, Stefan; Chou, Wen-Chien; Jost, Edgar; Crysandt, Martina; Panse, Jens; Chuang, Ming-Kai; Brümmendorf, Tim H; Wagner, Wolfgang; Tien, Hwei-Fang; Kharabi Masouleh, Behzad

    2016-09-01

    Risk stratification based on cytogenetics of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) remains imprecise. The introduction of novel genetic and epigenetic markers has helped to close this gap and increased the specificity of risk stratification, although most studies have been conducted in specific AML subpopulations. In order to overcome this limitation, we used a genome-wide approach in multiple AML populations to develop a robust prediction model for AML survival. We conducted a genome-wide expression analysis of two data sets from AML patients enrolled into the AMLCG-1999 trial and from the Tumor Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) to develop a prognostic score to refine current risk classification and performed a validation on two data sets of the National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH) and an independent AMLCG cohort. In our training set, using a stringent multi-step approach, we identified a small three-gene prognostic scoring system, named Tri-AML score (TriAS) which highly correlated with overall survival (OS). Multivariate analysis revealed TriAS to be an independent prognostic factor in all tested training and additional validation sets, even including age, current cytogenetic-based risk stratification, and three other recently developed expression-based scoring models for AML. The Tri-AML score allows robust and clinically practical risk stratification for the outcome of AML patients. TriAS substantially refined current ELN risk stratification assigning 44.5 % of the patients into a different risk category.

  15. Validation of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome in Japan: results from a prospective multicenter registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawabata, Hiroshi; Tohyama, Kaoru; Matsuda, Akira; Araseki, Kayano; Hata, Tomoko; Suzuki, Takahiro; Kayano, Hidekazu; Shimbo, Kei; Zaike, Yuji; Usuki, Kensuke; Chiba, Shigeru; Ishikawa, Takayuki; Arima, Nobuyoshi; Nogawa, Masaharu; Ohta, Akiko; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Mitani, Kinuko; Ozawa, Keiya; Arai, Shunya; Kurokawa, Mineo; Takaori-Kondo, Akifumi

    2017-05-11

    The Japanese National Research Group on Idiopathic Bone Marrow Failure Syndromes has been conducting prospective registration, central review, and follow-up study for patients with aplastic anemia and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) since 2006. Using this database, we retrospectively analyzed the prognosis of patients with MDS. As of May 2016, 351 cases were registered in this database, 186 of which were eligible for the present study. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that overall survival (OS) curves of the five risk categories stipulated by the revised international prognostic scoring system (IPSS-R) were reasonably separated. 2-year OS rates for the very low-, low-, intermediate-, high-, and very high-risk categories were 95, 89, 79, 35, and 12%, respectively. In the same categories, incidence of leukemic transformation at 2 years was 0, 10, 8, 56, and 40%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that male sex, low platelet counts, increased blast percentage (>2%), and high-risk karyotype abnormalities were independent risk factors for poor OS. Based on these data, we classified Japanese MDS patients who were classified as intermediate-risk in IPSS-R, into the lower risk MDS category, highlighting the need for careful assessment of treatments within low- and high-risk treatment protocols.

  16. Improving Computational Efficiency of Prediction in Model-based Prognostics Using the Unscented Transform

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    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics captures system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail, in order to obtain accurate predictions of...

  17. Preoperative Prognostic Factors After Liver Resection for Non-Colorectal, Non-Neuroendocrine Liver Metastases and Validation of the Adam Score in an Asian Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sim, Dayna P Y; Goh, Brian K P; Lee, Ser-Yee; Chan, Chung-Yip; Tan, Iain B H; Cheow, Peng-Chung; Jeyaraj, Premaraj; Chow, Pierce K H; Ooi, London L P J; Chung, Alexander Y F

    2017-09-05

    Historically, the benefit of liver resection for non-colorectal, non-neuroendocrine (NCNN) liver metastases has been controversial. This study aims to determine the preoperative prognostic factors of liver resection for NCNN liver metastases and validate the Adam score in an Asian population. Consecutive patients who underwent liver resection for NCNN liver metastases were identified retrospectively from a prospective liver resection database of the single institution between 2001 and 2014. Univariate Cox regression models were used to identify associations with outcome variables. Recurrence-free interval and overall survival were determined using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using log-rank test. Seventy-eight consecutive patients were identified, which met the study criteria. Univariate analysis demonstrated that adenocarcinoma histology of primary cancer, disease-free interval and number of nodules were significant predictors of survival. Four of the six components of Adam score were significant predictors of survival. These were the presence of extrahepatic metastases, R2 resection, disease-free interval and type of a primary tumour. The total Adam score was also a significant predictor of survival. Liver resection for NCNN liver metastases is a safe and viable treatment option in carefully selected patients. Significant preoperative prognostic factors include adenocarcinoma primary tumours, disease-free interval and number of nodules. The total Adam score was a good predictor of overall survival and can be used to risk stratify patients undergoing hepatic resection for NCNN liver metastases.

  18. Secondary Cutaneous Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma has a Higher International Prognostic Index Score and Worse Prognosis Than Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma, Leg Type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Woo Jin; Won, Kwang Hee; Won, Chong Hyun; Chang, Sung Eun; Choi, Jee Ho; Moon, Kee Chan; Park, Chan-Sik; Huh, Jooryung; Suh, Cheolwon; Lee, Mi Woo

    2016-02-01

    Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) can be separated into 2 groups: nodal and extranodal disease. The aim of this study was to analyse the clinical features of skin lesions and survival outcomes of cutaneous DLBCL according to the primary tumour site. A total of 44 patients with cutaneous DLBCL were classified as primary cutaneous DLBCL, leg type or cutaneous DLBCL secondary to primary disease. Although skin lesion characteristics did not differ significantly between groups, extensive cutaneous lesions were more often observed in secondary cutaneous DLBCL compared with DLBCL, leg type. Secondary cutaneous DLBCL was more commonly associated with an advanced stage and higher International Prognostic Index score than DLBCL, leg type. DLBCL, leg type demonstrated a better survival outcome than secondary cutaneous DLBCL. The multiplicity of skin lesions and time-point of cutaneous involvement were associated with prognosis in secondary cutaneous DLBCL. Survival outcomes and prognostic factors differ depending on the primary tumour site of cutaneous DLBCL.

  19. Physics Based Modeling and Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan; Ceyla, Jose R.; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes first principles based modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors have become critical components in electronics systems in aeronautics and other domains. Degradations and faults in DC-DC converter unit propagates to the GPS and navigation subsystems and affects the overall solution. Capacitors and MOSFETs are the two major components, which cause degradations and failures in DC-DC converters. This type of capacitors are known for its low reliability and frequent breakdown on critical systems like power supplies of avionics equipment and electrical drivers of electromechanical actuators of control surfaces. Some of the more prevalent fault effects, such as a ripple voltage surge at the power supply output can cause glitches in the GPS position and velocity output, and this, in turn, if not corrected will propagate and distort the navigation solution. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.

  20. Prognostic value of diffusion-weighted imaging summation scores or apparent diffusion coefficient maps in newborns with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalleri, Francesca; Lugli, Licia; Pugliese, Marisa; D'Amico, Roberto; Todeschini, Alessandra; Della Casa, Elisa; Gallo, Claudio; Frassoldati, Rossella; Ferrari, Fabrizio

    2014-09-01

    The diagnostic and prognostic assessment of newborn infants with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) comprises, among other tools, diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps. To compare the ability of DWI and ADC maps in newborns with HIE to predict the neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years of age. Thirty-four term newborns with HIE admitted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of Modena University Hospital from 2004 to 2008 were consecutively enrolled in the study. All newborns received EEG, conventional MRI and DWI within the first week of life. DWI was analyzed by means of summation (S) score and regional ADC measurements. Neurodevelopmental outcome was assessed with a standard 1-4 scale and the Griffiths Mental Developmental Scales - Revised (GMDS-R). When the outcome was evaluated with a standard 1-4 scale, the DWI S scores showed very high area under the curve (AUC) (0.89) whereas regional ADC measurements in specific subregions had relatively modest predictive value. The lentiform nucleus was the region with the highest AUC (0.78). When GMDS-R were considered, DWI S scores were good to excellent predictors for some GMDS-R subscales. The predictive value of ADC measurements was both region- and subscale-specific. In particular, ADC measurements in some regions (basal ganglia, white matter or rolandic cortex) were excellent predictors for specific GMDS-R with AUCs up to 0.93. DWI S scores showed the highest prognostic value for the neurological outcome at 2 years of age. Regional ADC measurements in specific subregions proved to be highly prognostic for specific neurodevelopmental outcomes.

  1. Prognostic value of diffusion-weighted imaging summation scores or apparent diffusion coefficient maps in newborns with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cavalleri, Francesca; Todeschini, Alessandra [Azienda Unita Sanitaria Locale di Modena, Neuroradiology Unit, Department of Neuroscience, Nuovo Ospedale Civile S. Agostino Estense di Modena, Modena (Italy); Lugli, Licia; Pugliese, Marisa; Della Casa, Elisa; Gallo, Claudio; Frassoldati, Rossella; Ferrari, Fabrizio [Modena University Hospital, Institute of Pediatrics and Neonatal Medicine and NICU, Modena (Italy); D' Amico, Roberto [University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Clinical and Diagnostic Medicine and Public Health, Modena (Italy)

    2014-09-15

    The diagnostic and prognostic assessment of newborn infants with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) comprises, among other tools, diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps. To compare the ability of DWI and ADC maps in newborns with HIE to predict the neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years of age. Thirty-four term newborns with HIE admitted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of Modena University Hospital from 2004 to 2008 were consecutively enrolled in the study. All newborns received EEG, conventional MRI and DWI within the first week of life. DWI was analyzed by means of summation (S) score and regional ADC measurements. Neurodevelopmental outcome was assessed with a standard 1-4 scale and the Griffiths Mental Developmental Scales - Revised (GMDS-R). When the outcome was evaluated with a standard 1-4 scale, the DWI S scores showed very high area under the curve (AUC) (0.89) whereas regional ADC measurements in specific subregions had relatively modest predictive value. The lentiform nucleus was the region with the highest AUC (0.78). When GMDS-R were considered, DWI S scores were good to excellent predictors for some GMDS-R subscales. The predictive value of ADC measurements was both region- and subscale-specific. In particular, ADC measurements in some regions (basal ganglia, white matter or rolandic cortex) were excellent predictors for specific GMDS-R with AUCs up to 0.93. DWI S scores showed the highest prognostic value for the neurological outcome at 2 years of age. Regional ADC measurements in specific subregions proved to be highly prognostic for specific neurodevelopmental outcomes. (orig.)

  2. Aircraft Anomaly Prognostics Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ridgetop Group will leverage its proven Electromechanical Actuator (EMA) prognostics methodology to develop an advanced model-based actuator prognostic reasoner...

  3. Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D

    2015-03-01

    Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

  4. Prognostic factors in Chinese patients with prostate cancer receiving primary androgen deprivation therapy: validation of Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (J-CAPRA) score and impacts of pre-existing obesity and diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Meng-Bo; Yang, Tian; Hu, Ji-Meng; Zhu, Wen-Hui; Jiang, Hao-Wen; Ding, Qiang

    2018-01-06

    Our aim was to determine the prognostic factors in Chinese patients with prostate cancer receiving primary androgen deprivation therapy (PADT), validate the Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (J-CAPRA) score, and investigate the impacts of pre-existing obesity and diabetes mellitus (DM). The study enrolled Chinese patients diagnosed with prostatic adenocarcinoma and treated with bilateral orchiectomy as PADT at Huashan Hospital, Fudan University (Shanghai, China), from January 2003 to December 2015. The overall survival (OS) and prognostic value of J-CAPRA score, pre-existing obesity, DM, and various clinicopathological variables were analyzed. Of the 435 patients enrolled, 174 (40.0%) deaths occurred during follow-up; 3- and 5-year OS were 74.0 and 58.9%, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified that higher Gleason score and metastasis were both correlated with worse OS and that higher J-CAPRA score was correlated with worse OS [hazard ratio (HR) 1.110, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.035-1.190, P = 0.003). Different risk categories based on J-CAPRA score showed good stratification in OS (log-rank P = 0.015). In subgroup analysis, pre-existing obesity as a protective factor in younger patients (age ≤ 65, HR 0.271, 95% CI 0.075-0.980, P = 0.046) and pre-existing DM as a risk factor in older patients (> 75, HR 1.854, 95% CI 1.026-3.351, P = 0.041) for OS were recognized, and the prediction accuracy of J-CAPRA was elevated after incorporating pre-existing obesity and DM. The J-CAPRA score presented with good OS differentiation among Chinese patients under PADT. Younger patients (age ≤ 65) had better OS with pre-existing obesity, while older patients (age > 75) had worse OS with pre-existing DM.

  5. Overexpression of epidermal growth factor receptor as a prognostic factor in colorectal cancer on the basis of the Allred scoring system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rokita M

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Marta Rokita,1 Rafal Stec,1 Lubomir Bodnar,1 Radoslaw Charkiewicz,2 Jan Korniluk,1 Marta Smoter,1 Marzena Cichowicz,3 Lech Chyczewski,4 Jacek Nikliński,2 Wojciech Kozłowski,3 Cezary Szczylik11Department of Oncology, Military Institute of Medicine, Central Teaching Hospital, Warsaw, Poland; 2Department of Clinical Molecular Biology, Medical University of Bialystok, Bialystok, Poland; 3Department of Pathology, Military Institute of the Health Services in Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland; 4Department of Clinical Pathology, Medical University of Bialystok, Bialystok, PolandBackground: Overexpression of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR is found in many types of neoplasms. The aim of the study was to evaluate EGFR expression in colorectal cancer (CRC specimens and to determine whether EGFR expression correlates with clinicopathological data and overall survival.Patients and methods: Tissue specimens from 181 consecutive CRC patients treated at the Military Institute of Medicine in 2006–2010 were collected and examined for EGFR expression, by immunohistochemistry staining. The staining intensity and percentage of cells with membranous EGFR expression were scored and then grouped according to the parameters of the Allred Scoring system. Cutoff values were subjected to further statistical analysis. Univariate tests and a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model were used in data analysis.Results: EGFR was overexpressed in 96 of 181 CRC specimens (53%. EGFR expression was not correlated with other clinicopathological variables. On univariate analysis, overexpression of EGFR, determined by PS (percentage score (>3 and total score (sum of PS and intensity score (>4, was associated with poor overall survival. On multivariate analysis, EGFR overexpression (PS > 3 was an independent adverse prognostic factor (hazard ratio [HR] 1.62; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03–2.53. Elevated carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA serum concentration before treatment

  6. Prognostic significance of primary Gleason pattern in Japanese men with Gleason score 7 prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyake, Hideaki; Muramaki, Mototsugu; Furukawa, Junya; Tanaka, Hirokazu; Inoue, Taka-aki; Fujisawa, Masato

    2013-11-01

    To evaluate the significance of the primary Gleason pattern in patients with Gleason score (GS) 7 prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy. This study included 959 consecutive Japanese men who underwent radical prostatectomy without neoadjuvant therapies and were subsequently diagnosed as having GS 7 prostate cancer based on the modified International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) 2005 Gleason grading system. Of these 959 patients, 666 (69.4%) and 293 (30.6%) had GS 3+4 and GS 4+3 tumors, respectively. There were significant differences in the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, biopsy GS, pathologic T stage, lymphatic invasion, microvenous invasion, and perineural invasion between these 2 groups. During the mean observation of 48.9 months, biochemical recurrence occurred in 211 patients (22.0%), and there was a significant difference in the biochemical recurrence-free survival between patients with GS 3+4 tumors and those with GS 4+3 tumors. Of several factors examined, biochemical recurrence-free survival was significantly associated with the PSA level, biopsy Gleason score, capsular penetration, seminal vesicle invasion, surgical margin status, lymphatic invasion, microvenous invasion, perineural invasion, and primary Gleason pattern, among which the PSA level, capsular penetration, seminal vesicle invasion, and surgical margin status, but not primary Gleason pattern, appeared to be independent predictors of biochemical recurrence. Despite the lack of an independent significance, primary Gleason pattern based on the modified ISUP 2005 Gleason grading system is shown to be significantly associated with the biochemical outcome of Japanese men with GS 7 prostate cancer. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Comparison of prognostic scores and surgical approaches to treat spinal metastatic tumors: A review of 57 cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bekar Ahmet

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Surgical treatment of metastatic spinal cord compression with or without neural deficit is controversial. Karnofsky and Tokuhashi scores have been proposed for prognosis of spinal metastasis. Here, we conducted a retrospective analysis of Karnofsky and modified Tokuhashi scores in 57 consecutive patients undergoing surgery for secondary spinal metastases to evaluate the value of these scores in aiding decision making for surgery. Comparison of preoperative Karnofsky and modified Tokuhashi scores with the type of the surgical approach for each patient revealed that both scores not only reliably estimate life expectancy, but also objectively improved surgical decisions. When the general status of the patient is poor (i.e., Karnofsky score less than 40% or modified Tokuhashi score of 5 or greater, palliative treatments and radiotherapy, rather than surgery, should be considered.

  8. Association between value-based purchasing score and hospital characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borah Bijan J

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Medicare hospital Value-based purchasing (VBP program that links Medicare payments to quality of care will become effective from 2013. It is unclear whether specific hospital characteristics are associated with a hospital’s VBP score, and consequently incentive payments. The objective of the study was to assess the association of hospital characteristics with (i the mean VBP score, and (ii specific percentiles of the VBP score distribution. The secondary objective was to quantify the associations of hospital characteristics with the VBP score components: clinical process of care (CPC score and patient satisfaction score. Methods Observational analysis that used data from three sources: Medicare Hospital Compare Database, American Hospital Association 2010 Annual Survey and Medicare Impact File. The final study sample included 2,491 U.S. acute care hospitals eligible for the VBP program. The association of hospital characteristics with the mean VBP score and specific VBP score percentiles were assessed by ordinary least square (OLS regression and quantile regression (QR, respectively. Results VBP score had substantial variations, with mean score of 30 and 60 in the first and fourth quartiles of the VBP score distribution. For-profit status (vs. non-profit, smaller bed size (vs. 100–199 beds, East South Central region (vs. New England region and the report of specific CPC measures (discharge instructions, timely provision of antibiotics and beta blockers, and serum glucose controls in cardiac surgery patients were positively associated with mean VBP scores (p Conclusions Although hospitals serving the poor and the elderly are more likely to score lower under the VBP program, the correlation appears small. Profit status, geographic regions, number and type of CPC measures reported explain the most variation among scores.

  9. [Determination of prognostic value of the OESIL risk score at 6 months in a Colombian cohort with syncope evaluated in the emergency department; first Latin American experience].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz-Tribaldos, Diana Carolina; Mora, Guillermo; Olaya, Alejandro; Marín, Jorge; Sierra Matamoros, Fabio

    2017-07-14

    To establish the prognostic value, with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for the OESIL syncope risk score to predict the presentation of severe outcomes (death, invasive interventions, and readmission) after 6 months of observation in adults who consulted the emergency department due to syncope. Observational, prospective, and multicentre study with enrolment of subjects older than 18 years, who consulted in the emergency department due to syncope. A record was mad of the demographic and clinical information of all patients. The OESIL risk score was calculated, and severe patient outcomes were followed up during a 6 month period using telephone contact. A total of 161 patients met the inclusion criteria and were followed up for 6 months. A score above or equal to 2 in the risk score, classified as high risk, was present in 72% of the patients. The characteristics of the risk score to predict the combined outcome of mortality, invasive interventions, and readmission for a score above or equal to 2 were 75.7, 30.5, 43.1, and 64.4% for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value, respectively. A score above or equal to 2 in the OESIL risk score applied in Colombian population was of limited use to predict the studied severe outcomes. This score will be unable to discriminate between patients that benefit of early admission and further clinical studies. Copyright © 2017 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  10. A STUDY OF SILVER STAINING NUCLEOLAR ORGANISING REGIONS AGNOR SCORE AS PROGNOSTIC MARKER IN BREAST LESIONS IN A TERTIARY CARE HOSPITAL IN HYDERABAD

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    Bhavani Shankar Nithyananda

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Nucleolar Organising Regions (NORS are segments of DNA closely associated with nucleolus, which code for ribosomal DNA consisting of non-histone proteins, which are argyrophilic. They are demonstrated as black, brown spots on staining with silver colloidal staining technique. Hence, they are called AgNORs. The assessment of AgNORs correlates with rate of proliferation, cell cycle time, since shorter the cell cycle, greater the ribosomal activity and protein synthesis higher AgNOR count. 1 AgNORs have been studied on NHL, GIT neoplasms, skin, gynaecological neoplasms, pulmonary neoplasms, prostate, bladder and breast cancer. In breast cancer, AgNOR can be used for early detection, grading and staging of disease. In this study, we have tried to correlate AgNOR character to morphological prognostic markers. MATERIALS AND METHODS A total of 159 cases presenting with lump in the breast were included in the study. Specimens were subjected to histopathological examination. Sections cut three micron thickness were stained for AgNOR with silver colloidal AgNOR staining technique. AgNOR count was done on both benign and malignant lesions. RESULTS Benign breast lesions were more common compared to malignant lesions. The age of the patients ranged from 15-79 yrs. The mean age for benign lesions was 31 yrs. and for malignant lesions 43 yrs. The most common benign lesion was fibroadenoma and most common malignant lesion was infiltrating ductal carcinoma. AgNOR spots were seen as black/brown spots. AgNOR score was higher in malignant lesions when compared to benign lesions. Among malignant lesions, AgNOR score was found to be higher in high grade, metastatic tumours. CONCLUSION AgNOR count is a useful technique, which can supplement other prognostic markers like Ki-67, mitotic index. A long follow up study is required to confirm the prognostic utility of AgNOR count done in this study

  11. Early onset hyperuricemia is a prognostic marker for kidney graft failure: Propensity score matching analysis in a Korean multicenter cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miyeun Han

    Full Text Available It remains inconclusive whether hyperuricemia is a true risk factor for kidney graft failure. In the current study, we investigated the association of hyperuricemia and graft outcome. We performed a multi-center cohort study that included 2620 kidney transplant recipients. The patients were classified as either normouricemic or hyperuricemic at 3 months after transplantation. Hyperuricemia was defined as a serum uric acid level ≥ 7.0 mg/dL in males or ≥ 6.0 mg/dL in females or based on the use of urate-lowering medications. The two groups were compared before and after propensity score matching. A total of 657 (25.1% patients were classified as hyperuricemic. The proportion of hyperuricemic patients increased over time, reaching 44.2% of the total cohort at 5 years after transplantation. Estimated glomerular filtration rate and donor type were independently associated with hyperuricemia. Hyperuricemia was associated with graft loss according to multiple Cox regression analysis before propensity score matching (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.14-2.13, P = 0.005 as well as after matching (HR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.13-2.42, p = 0.010. Cox regression models using time-varying hyperuricemia or marginal structural models adjusted with time-varying eGFR also demonstrated significant hazards of hyperuricemia for graft loss. Cardiovascular events and recipient survival were not associated with hyperuricemia. Overall, hyperuricemia, especially early onset after transplantation, showed an increased risk for graft failure. Further studies are warranted to determine whether lowering serum uric acid levels would be beneficial to graft survival.

  12. Evaluation of the diagnostic and prognostic use of gated myocardial perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography in patients with acute chest pain: comparison with the SYNTAX score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karacavus, Seyhan; Tutus, Ahmet; Topsakal, Ramazan; Kula, Mustafa; Celik, Ahmet; Abdulrezzak, Ummuhan; Durukan, Polat

    2015-09-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic efficacy of gated single-photon emission computed tomography (GSPECT) in patients with acute chest pain and to compare quantitative GSPECT parameters and the coronary angiographic SYNTAX score. A total of 168 patients who presented with clinical symptoms of acute chest pain were enrolled in the study. Study participants were divided into two groups according to the risk of acute coronary syndrome (ACS): low-intermediate and high risk. All participants underwent rest or stress-GSPECT (R/S-GSPECT). Coronary angiography was performed in all high-risk patients and the SYNTAX score was determined. All patients were followed for 24 ± 3 months and monitored for the occurrence of major adverse coronary events (MACE). Among patients with low-intermediate ACS risk, R-GSPECT and S-GSPECT were associated with 100 and 86% sensitivity, 99 and 98% specificity, 100 and 98% negative predictive value, 80 and 86% positive predictive value, and 98 and 97% accuracy, respectively. At follow-up, MACE occurred in 16 patients. Among high-risk patients, GSPECT quantitative parameters were the most significant predictors of MACE in Cox regression analysis. R/S-GSPECT, a noninvasive diagnostic method, is associated with an excellent safety profile and exceptional diagnostic and prognostic accuracy in cases of ACS.

  13. Proposal and validation of prognostic scoring systems for IgG and IgA monoclonal gammopathies of undetermined significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Francesca; Petrucci, Maria Teresa; Guffanti, Andrea; Marcheselli, Luigi; Rossi, Davide; Callea, Vincenzo; Vincenzo, Federico; De Muro, Marianna; Baraldi, Alessandra; Villani, Oreste; Musto, Pellegrino; Bacigalupo, Andrea; Gaidano, Gianluca; Avvisati, Giuseppe; Goldaniga, Maria; Depaoli, Lorenzo; Baldini, Luca

    2009-07-01

    The presenting clinico-hematologic features of 1,283 patients with IgG and IgA monoclonal gammopathies of undetermined significance (MGUS) were correlated with the frequency of evolution into multiple myeloma (MM). Two IgG MGUS populations were evaluated: a training sample (553 patients) and a test sample (378 patients); the IgA MGUS population consisted of 352 patients. Forty-seven of the 553 training group patients and 22 of 378 test group IgG patients developed MM after a median follow-up of 6.7 and 3.6 years, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that serum monoclonal component (MC) levels of sample. Thirty of the 352 IgA patients developed MM after a median follow-up of 4.8 years, and multivariate analysis showed that hemoglobin levels of <12.5 g/dL and reduced serum polyclonal immunoglobulin correlated with progression. A pooled statistical analysis of all of the patients confirmed the validity of Mayo Clinic risk model showing that IgA class, serum MC levels, and light-chain proteinuria are the most important variables correlated with disease progression. Using simple variables, we validated a prognostic model for IgG MGUS. Among the IgA cases, the possible prognostic role of hemoglobin emerged in addition to a decrease in normal immunoglobulin levels.

  14. Advanced Methods for Determining Prediction Uncertainty in Model-Based Prognostics with Application to Planetary Rovers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Sankararaman, Shankar

    2013-01-01

    Prognostics is centered on predicting the time of and time until adverse events in components, subsystems, and systems. It typically involves both a state estimation phase, in which the current health state of a system is identified, and a prediction phase, in which the state is projected forward in time. Since prognostics is mainly a prediction problem, prognostic approaches cannot avoid uncertainty, which arises due to several sources. Prognostics algorithms must both characterize this uncertainty and incorporate it into the predictions so that informed decisions can be made about the system. In this paper, we describe three methods to solve these problems, including Monte Carlo-, unscented transform-, and first-order reliability-based methods. Using a planetary rover as a case study, we demonstrate and compare the different methods in simulation for battery end-of-discharge prediction.

  15. Prospective trial to evaluate the prognostic value of different nutritional assessment scores in pancreatic surgery (NURIMAS Pancreas).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Probst, P; Haller, S; Bruckner, T; Ulrich, A; Strobel, O; Hackert, T; Diener, M K; Büchler, M W; Knebel, P

    2017-07-01

    Preoperative nutritional status has an impact on patients' clinical outcome. For pancreatic surgery, however, it is unclear which nutritional assessment scores adequately assess malnutrition associated with postoperative outcome. Patients scheduled for elective pancreatic surgery at the University of Heidelberg were screened for eligibility. Twelve nutritional assessment scores were calculated before operation, and patients were categorized as either at risk or not at risk for malnutrition by each score. The postoperative course was monitored prospectively by assessors blinded to the nutritional status. The primary endpoint was major complications evaluated for each score in a multivariable analysis corrected for known risk factors in pancreatic surgery. Overall, 279 patients were analysed. A major complication occurred in 61 patients (21·9 per cent). The proportion of malnourished patients differed greatly among the scores, from 1·1 per cent (Nutritional Risk Index) to 79·6 per cent (Nutritional Risk Classification). In the multivariable analysis, only raised amylase level in drainage fluid on postoperative day 1 (odds ratio (OR) 4·91, 95 per cent c.i. 1·10 to 21·84; P = 0·037) and age (OR 1·05, 1·02 to 1·09; P = 0·005) were significantly associated with major complications; none of the scores was associated with, or predicted, postoperative complications. None of the nutritional assessment scores defined malnutrition relevant to complications after pancreatic surgery and these scores may thus be abandoned. © 2017 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Comparison of prognostic value of echographic [corrected] risk score with the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Global Registry in Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk scores in acute coronary syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedetti, Gigliola; Gargani, Luna; Sicari, Rosa; Gianfaldoni, Maria Luisa; Molinaro, Sabrina; Picano, Eugenio

    2010-12-15

    Risk stratification in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) is achieved today by clinical models, "blind" to the prognostic support of imaging methods. To assess the value of simple at rest cardiac chest sonography in predicting the intra- and extrahospital risk of death or myocardial infarction, we enrolled 470 consecutive in-patients (312 men, age 71 ± 12 years) who had been admitted for ACS. On admission, all had received a clinical score using the Global Registry in Acute Coronary Events and Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction systems and, within 1 to 12 hours, a comprehensive cardiac-chest ultrasound scan. Each of the 16 echocardiographic parameters evaluating left and right, systolic and diastolic, ventricular function and structure, was scored from 0 (normal) to 3 (severely abnormal). The median follow-up was 5 months (interquartile range 1 to 10). Patients with hard events (n = 102) could be separated from patients without events (n = 368) using the Global Registry in Acute Coronary Events score, Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction score, and several echocardiographic parameters. On multivariate Cox analysis, ejection fraction (hazard ratio 1.45, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 2.08, p = 0.040), tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (hazard ratio 1.66, 95% confidence interval 1.13 to 2.45, p = 0.010) and ultrasound lung comets (hazard ratio 1.69, 95% confidence interval 1.25 to 2.27, p = 0.001) were independent predictors of cardiac events. The 3-variable echocardiographic score (from 0, normal to 9, severe abnormalities in ejection fraction, ultrasound lung comets, and tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion) effectively stratified patients and added value (hazard ratio 2.52, 95% confidence interval 1.89 to 3.37, p score (hazard ratio 1.60, 95% confidence interval 1.07 to 2.39, p = 0.003). In conclusion, for patients with ACS, effective risk stratification can be achieved with cardiac and chest ultrasound imaging parameters, adding

  17. The C-reactive protein/albumin ratio, a validated prognostic score, predicts outcome of surgical renal cell carcinoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Shengjie; He, Xiaobo; Chen, Qian; Yang, Guangwei; Yao, Kai; Dong, Pei; Ye, Yunlin; Chen, Dong; Zhang, Zhiling; Qin, Zike; Liu, Zhuowei; Xue, Yunfei; Zhang, Meng; Liu, Ruiwu; Zhou, Fangjian; Han, Hui

    2017-03-06

    The preoperative C-reactive protein/Albumin (CRP/Alb) ratio has been shown to be valuable in predicting the prognosis of patients with certain cancers. The aim of our study is to explore its prognostic value in patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC). A retrospective study was performed in 570 RCC patients underwent radical or partial nephrectomy including 541 patients who received full resection of localized (T1-3 N0/+ M0) RCC. The optimal cutoff value of CRP/Alb was determined by the receive operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The impact of the CRP/Alb and other clinicopathological characteristics on overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) was evaluated using the univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. The optimal cutoff of CRP/Alb ratio was set at 0.08 according to the ROC analysis. Multivariate analysis indicated that CRP/Alb ratio was independently associated with OS of RCC patients underwent radical or partial nephrectomy (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.94; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.12-3.36; P = 0.018), and DFS of localized RCC patients underwent full resection (HR: 2.14; 95% CI: 1.22-3.75; P = 0.008). Elevated CRP/Alb ratio was an independent prognostic indicator for poor OS in patients underwent radical or partial nephrectomy and DFS of localized RCC patients underwent full resection. Overall, CRP/Alb may help to identify patients with high relapse risk.

  18. Prognostic relevance of motor talent predictors in early adolescence: A group- and individual-based evaluation considering different levels of achievement in youth football.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höner, Oliver; Votteler, Andreas

    2016-12-01

    In the debate about the usefulness of motor diagnostics in the talent identification process, the prognostic validity for tests conducted in early adolescence is of critical interest. Using a group- and individual-based statistical approach, this prospective cohort study evaluated a nationwide assessment of speed abilities and technical skills regarding its relevance for future achievement levels. The sample consisted of 22,843 U12-players belonging to the top 4% in German football. The U12-results in five tests served as predictors for players' selection levels in U16-U19 (youth national team, regional association, youth academy, not selected). Group-mean differences proved the prognostic relevance for all predictors. Low individual selection probabilities demonstrated limited predictive values, while excellent test results proved their particular prognostic relevance. Players scoring percentile ranks (PRs) ≥ 99 had a 12 times higher chance to become youth national team players than players scoring PR < 99. Simulating increasing score cut-off values not only enhanced specificity (correctly identified non-talents) but also led to lower sensitivity (loss of talents). Extending the current research, these different approaches revealed the ambiguity of the diagnostics' prognostic relevance, representing both the usefulness and several pitfalls of nationwide diagnostics. Therefore, the present diagnostics can support but not substitute for coaches' subjective decisions for talent identification, and multidisciplinary designs are required.

  19. A clinically based prognostic index for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma with a cut-off at 70 years of age significantly improves prognostic stratification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gang, Anne O.; Pedersen, Michael; d'Amore, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    subtypes. We applied IPI factors to a population-based rituximab-treated cohort of 1990 patients diagnosed 2000-2010 and explored new factors and the optimal prognostic age cut-off for DLBCL. Multivariate-analyses (MVA) confirmed the prognostic value of all IPI factors except the presence of > 1 extranodal...... lesion. The optimal age cut-off was 70 years. In a MVA of albumin, lymphocyte count, sex, immunoglobulin G, bulky disease, hemoglobin and B-symptoms, only albumin was prognostic. We propose: (1) a modified DLBCL prognostic index (DLBCL-PI) including: age (70 years), performance status (PS), lactate...... dehydrogenase (LDH), stage and albumin level, and (2) a separate age-adjusted DLBCL-PI for patients 1 extranodal lesion, however excluding stage....

  20. Prognostic significance of global grading system of Gleason score in patients with prostate cancer with bone metastasis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kambara, Tsunehito; Oyama, Tetsunari; Segawa, Atsuki; Fukabori, Yoshitatsu; Yoshida, Ken-Ichiro

    2010-01-01

    ...) on prediction of prognosis for patients with prostate cancer with bone metastasis. PATIENTS AND METHODS Prostatic needle biopsy specimens from 113 patients with prostate cancer with bone metastasis were scored using the conventional GGS (CGGS...

  1. Prognostic impact of residual SYNTAX score in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction and multivessel disease: Analysis of an 8-year all-comers registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braga, Carlos Galvão; Cid-Alvarez, Ana Belén; Diéguez, Alfredo Redondo; Alvarez, Belén Alvarez; Otero, Diego López; Sánchez, Raymundo Ocaranza; Pena, Xoan Sanmartin; Salvado, Violeta González; Trillo-Nouche, Ramiro; González-Juanatey, José R

    2017-09-15

    The residual SYNTAX score (rSS) was designed and validated to quantify the burden of residual coronary artery disease after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic impact of rSS in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and multivessel disease undergoing primary-PCI. This retrospective cohort study included 1499 consecutive patients with STEMI who underwent primary-PCI between January 2008 and December 2015. After exclusion criteria, the multivessel disease cohort (n=535) was divided into three groups, according to rSS: complete revascularization (rSS=0; n=198), reasonable incomplete revascularization (0rSSrSS≥8; n=99). In-hospital mortality was significantly lower in patients with complete and reasonable incomplete revascularization, when compared to those with incomplete revascularization (1.5% vs. 1.7% vs. 9.0%, prSS was positively correlated with MACE (25.3% for rSS=0 vs. 31.1% for 0rSSrSS≥8, p=0.001) and all-cause mortality (5.1% vs. 10.5% vs. 19.2%, p=0.001). The rSS was also an independent predictor of MACE (when compared with complete revascularization, odds ratio [OR] was 1.5 for reasonable incomplete and 1.8 for incomplete revascularization) and all-cause mortality during follow-up (OR 2.9 for reasonable incomplete and 3.9 for incomplete revascularization), adding prognostic value over control variables and GRACE. In a real-world cohort of patients with STEMI and multivessel disease who underwent PCI, the rSS added important prognostic information over control variables and GRACE, being an independent predictor of MACE and all-cause mortality during follow-up. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Validation of Prognostic Scores to Predict Short-term Mortality in Patients with Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Do Seon; Kim, Tae Yeob; Kim, Dong Joon; Kim, Hee Yeon; Sinn, Dong Hyun; Yoon, Eileen L; Kim, Chang Wook; Jung, Young Kul; Suk, Ki Tae; Lee, Sang Soo; Lee, Chang Hyeong; Kim, Tae Hun; Choe, Won Hyeok; Yim, Hyung Joon; Kim, Sung Eun; Baik, Soon Koo; Jang, Jae Young; Kim, Hyoung Su; Kim, Sang Gyune; Yang, Jin Mo; Sohn, Joo Hyun; Choi, Eun Hee; Cho, Hyun Chin; Jeong, Soung Won; Kim, Moon Young

    2017-09-16

    The aim of this study was to validate the Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (CLIF-SOFAs), CLIF consortium organ failure score (CLIF-C OFs), CLIF-C acute-on-chronic liver failure score (CLIF-C ACLFs), and CLIF-C acute decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs) in Korean chronic liver disease patients with acute deterioration. ACLF was defined by either the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) or CLIF-C criteria. The diagnostic performances for short-term mortality were compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve. Among a total of 1470 patients, 252 patients were diagnosed with ACLF according to the CLIF-C (197 patients) or AARC definition (95 patients). As the ACLF grades increased, the survival rates became significantly lower. The AUROCs of the CLIF-SOFAs, CLIF-C OFs and CLIF-C ACLFs were significantly higher than those of the Child-Pugh, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), and MELD-Na scores in ACLF patients according to the CLIF-C definition (all Pliver specific scores in ACLF patients according to the CLIF-C definition, but not in ACLF patients according to the AARC definition. The CLIF-SOFAs, CLIF-C OFs, and CLIF-C ACLFs are useful scoring systems that provide accurate information on prognosis in patients with ACLF according to the CLIF-C definition, but not the AARC definition. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  3. Prognostic Value of Risk Factors, Calcium Score, Coronary CTA, Myocardial Perfusion Imaging, and Invasive Coronary Angiography in Kidney Transplantation Candidates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winther, Simon; Svensson, My; Jørgensen, Hanne Skou

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: This study sought to perform a prospective head-to-head comparison of the predictive value of clinical risk factors and a variety of cardiac imaging modalities including coronary artery calcium score (CACS), coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA), single-photon emission computed...... tomography (SPECT), and invasive coronary angiography (ICA) on major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and all-cause mortality in kidney transplantation candidates. BACKGROUND: Current guidelines recommend screening for coronary artery disease in kidney transplantation candidates. Furthermore, noninvasive stress...... imaging is recommended in current guidelines, despite its low diagnostic accuracy and uncertain prognostic value. METHODS: The study prospectively evaluated 154 patients referred for kidney transplantation. All patients underwent CACS, coronary CTA, SPECT, and ICA testing. The clinical endpoints were...

  4. Implications of Alternative Hepatorenal Prognostic Scoring Systems in Acute Heart Failure (from DOSE-AHF and ROSE-AHF).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grodin, Justin L; Gallup, Dianne; Anstrom, Kevin J; Felker, G Michael; Chen, Horng H; Tang, W H Wilson

    2017-06-15

    Because hepatic dysfunction is common in patients with heart failure (HF), the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) may be attractive for risk stratification. Although alternative scores such as the MELD-XI or MELD-Na may be more appropriate in HF populations, the short-term clinical implications of these in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) are unknown. The MELD-XI and MELD-Na were calculated at baseline in 453 patients with AHF in the DOSE-AHF and ROSE-AHF trials. The correlations and associations for each score with cardiorenal biomarkers, short-term end points at 72 hours including worsening renal function and clinical events to 60 days were determined. The median MELD-XI and MELD-Na was 16 and 17, respectively. Both were correlated with baseline cystatin C, amino terminus pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and plasma renin activity (p 0.05 for both) at 72 hours. Neither score was associated with worsening renal function or worsening HF (p >0.05 for all). Similarly, both the MELD-XI and MELD-Na were not associated with 60-day death/any rehospitalization and 60-day death/HF rehospitalization in adjusted analyses when analyzes as a dichotomous or continuous variable (p >0.05 for all). In conclusion, the alternative MELD scores correlated with baseline cardiorenal biomarkers, and lower baseline MELD scoring was associated with higher diuretic efficiency and a slight increase in cystatin C through 72 hours. However, MELD-Na and MELD-XI were not predictive of 60-day clinical events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. A Framework for Model-Based Diagnostics and Prognostics of Switched-Mode Power Supplies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-02

    consumption, MOSFET voltage, diode reverse voltage, and 47K resistance consumption. ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE PROGNOSTICS AND HEALTH MANAGEMENT...methodology based on an equivalent circuit system simulation model developed from a commercially available switch-mode power supply, and empirical...of an integrated simulation model combining two empirical models in the application of SMPS: a circuit -based SMPS simulation model and the

  6. Remaining useful life prognostics for aeroengine based on superstatistics and information fusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Junqiang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Remaining useful life (RUL prognostics is a fundamental premise to perform condition-based maintenance (CBM for a system subject to performance degradation. Over the past decades, research has been conducted in RUL prognostics for aeroengine. However, most of the prognostics technologies and methods simply base on single parameter, making it hard to demonstrate the specific characteristics of its degradation. To solve such problems, this paper proposes a novel approach to predict RUL by means of superstatistics and information fusion. The performance degradation evolution of the engine is modeled by fusing multiple monitoring parameters, which manifest non-stationary characteristics while degrading. With the obtained degradation curve, prognostics model can be established by state-space method, and then RUL can be estimated when the time-varying parameters of the model are predicted and updated through Kalman filtering algorithm. By this method, the non-stationary degradation of each parameter is represented, and multiple monitoring parameters are incorporated, both contributing to the final prognostics. A case study shows that this approach enables satisfactory prediction evolution and achieves a markedly better prognosis of RUL.

  7. Technology Credit Scoring Based on a Quantification Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonghan Ju

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Credit scoring models are usually formulated by fitting the probability of loan default as a function of individual evaluation attributes. Typically, these attributes are measured using a Likert-type scale, but are treated as interval scale explanatory variables to predict loan defaults. Existing models also do not distinguish between types of default, although they vary: default by an insolvent company and default by an insolvent debtor. This practice can bias the results. In this paper, we applied Quantification Method II, a categorical version of canonical correlation analysis, to determine the relationship between two sets of categorical variables: a set of default types and a set of evaluation attributes. We distinguished between two types of loan default patterns based on quantification scores. In the first set of quantification scores, we found knowledge management, new technology development, and venture registration as important predictors of default from non-default status. Based on the second quantification score, we found that the technology and profitability factors influence loan defaults due to an insolvent company. Finally, we proposed a credit-risk rating model based on the quantification score.

  8. Validation and Extension of the Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation Prognostic Model (ProVent) Score for Predicting 1-Year Mortality after Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udeh, Chiedozie I; Hadder, Brent; Udeh, Belinda L

    2015-12-01

    Prognostic models can inform management decisions for patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation. The Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation Prognostic model (ProVent) score was developed to predict 1-year mortality in these patients. External evaluation of such models is needed before they are adopted for routine use. The goal was to perform an independent external validation of the modified ProVent score and assess for spectrum extension at 14 days of mechanical ventilation. This was a retrospective cohort analysis of patients who received prolonged mechanical ventilation at the University of Iowa Hospitals. Patients who received 14 or more days of mechanical ventilation were identified from a database. Manual review of their medical records was performed to abstract relevant data including the four model variables at Days 14 and 21 of mechanical ventilation. Vital status at 1 year was checked in the medical records or the social security death index. Logistic regressions examined the associations between the different variables and mortality. Model performance at 14 to 20 days and 21+ days was assessed for discrimination by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. A total of 180 patients (21+ d) and 218 patients (14-20 d) were included. Overall, 75% were surgical patients. One-year mortality was 51% for 21+ days and 32% for 14 to 20 days of mechanical ventilation. Age greater than 65 years was the strongest predictor of mortality at 1 year in all cohorts. There was no significant difference between predicted and observed mortality rates for patients stratified by ProVent score. There was near-perfect specificity for mortality in the groups with higher ProVent scores. Areas under the curve were 0.69 and 0.75 for the 21+ days and the 14 to 20 days cohorts respectively. P values for the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics were 0.24 for 21+ days and 0.22 for 14 to

  9. dBBQs: dataBase of Bacterial Quality scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanchai, Visanu; Patumcharoenpol, Preecha; Nookaew, Intawat; Ussery, David

    2017-12-28

    It is well-known that genome sequencing technologies are becoming significantly cheaper and faster. As a result of this, the exponential growth in sequencing data in public databases allows us to explore ever growing large collections of genome sequences. However, it is less known that the majority of available sequenced genome sequences in public databases are not complete, drafts of varying qualities. We have calculated quality scores for around 100,000 bacterial genomes from all major genome repositories and put them in a fast and easy-to-use database. Prokaryotic genomic data from all sources were collected and combined to make a non-redundant set of bacterial genomes. The genome quality score for each was calculated by four different measurements: assembly quality, number of rRNA and tRNA genes, and the occurrence of conserved functional domains. The dataBase of Bacterial Quality scores (dBBQs) was designed to store and retrieve quality scores. It offers fast searching and download features which the result can be used for further analysis. In addition, the search results are shown in interactive JavaScript chart framework using DC.js. The analysis of quality scores across major public genome databases find that around 68% of the genomes are of acceptable quality for many uses. dBBQs (available at http://arc-gem.uams.edu/dbbqs ) provides genome quality scores for all available prokaryotic genome sequences with a user-friendly Web-interface. These scores can be used as cut-offs to get a high-quality set of genomes for testing bioinformatics tools or improving the analysis. Moreover, all data of the four measurements that were combined to make the quality score for each genome, which can potentially be used for further analysis. dBBQs will be updated regularly and is freely use for non-commercial purpose.

  10. Prognostics of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells stack using an ensemble of constraints based connectionist networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javed, Kamran; Gouriveau, Rafael; Zerhouni, Noureddine; Hissel, Daniel

    2016-08-01

    Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) is considered the most versatile among available fuel cell technologies, which qualify for diverse applications. However, the large-scale industrial deployment of PEMFCs is limited due to their short life span and high exploitation costs. Therefore, ensuring fuel cell service for a long duration is of vital importance, which has led to Prognostics and Health Management of fuel cells. More precisely, prognostics of PEMFC is major area of focus nowadays, which aims at identifying degradation of PEMFC stack at early stages and estimating its Remaining Useful Life (RUL) for life cycle management. This paper presents a data-driven approach for prognostics of PEMFC stack using an ensemble of constraint based Summation Wavelet- Extreme Learning Machine (SW-ELM) models. This development aim at improving the robustness and applicability of prognostics of PEMFC for an online application, with limited learning data. The proposed approach is applied to real data from two different PEMFC stacks and compared with ensembles of well known connectionist algorithms. The results comparison on long-term prognostics of both PEMFC stacks validates our proposition.

  11. An inflammation based score can optimize the selection of patients with advanced cancer considered for early phase clinical trials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J Pinato

    Full Text Available Adequate organ function and good performance status (PS are common eligibility criteria for phase I trials. As inflammation is pathogenic and prognostic in cancer we investigated the prognostic performance of inflammation-based indices including the neutrophil (NLR and platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR.We studied inflammatory scores in 118 unselected referrals. NLR normalization was recalculated at disease reassessment. Each variable was assessed for progression-free (PFS and overall survival (OS on uni- and multivariate analyses and tested for 90 days survival (90DS prediction using receiving operator curves (ROC.We included 118 patients with median OS 4.4 months, 23% PS>1. LDH≥450 and NLR≥5 were multivariate predictors of OS (p<0.001. NLR normalization predicted for longer OS (p<0.001 and PFS (p<0.05. PS and NLR ranked as most accurate predictors of both 90DS with area under ROC values of 0.66 and 0.64, and OS with c-score of 0.69 and 0.60. The combination of NLR+PS increased prognostic accuracy to 0.72. The NLR was externally validated in a cohort of 126 subjects.We identified the NLR as a validated and objective index to improve patient selection for experimental therapies, with its normalization following treatment predicting for a survival benefit of 7 months. Prospective validation of the NLR is warranted.

  12. Prognostics of Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Wavelet Denoising and DE-RVM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chaolong; He, Yigang; Yuan, Lifeng; Xiang, Sheng; Wang, Jinping

    2015-01-01

    Lithium-ion batteries are widely used in many electronic systems. Therefore, it is significantly important to estimate the lithium-ion battery's remaining useful life (RUL), yet very difficult. One important reason is that the measured battery capacity data are often subject to the different levels of noise pollution. In this paper, a novel battery capacity prognostics approach is presented to estimate the RUL of lithium-ion batteries. Wavelet denoising is performed with different thresholds in order to weaken the strong noise and remove the weak noise. Relevance vector machine (RVM) improved by differential evolution (DE) algorithm is utilized to estimate the battery RUL based on the denoised data. An experiment including battery 5 capacity prognostics case and battery 18 capacity prognostics case is conducted and validated that the proposed approach can predict the trend of battery capacity trajectory closely and estimate the battery RUL accurately. PMID:26413090

  13. A scoring model based on neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio predicts recurrence of HBV-associated hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo-Ying Wang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR has been proposed to predict prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC. However, the cut-off values are empirical. We determined the optimal cut-off value to predict HCC recurrence after liver transplantation (LT and further established a scoring model based on NLR. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analyzed the outcome of 101 HBV-associated HCC patients undergoing LT. Preoperative risk factors for tumor recurrence were evaluated by univariate analysis. By using ROC analysis, NLR≥3 was considered elevated. The disease-free survival (DFS and overall survival (OS for patients with high NLR was significantly worse than that for patients with normal NLR (the 5-year DFS and OS of 28.5% and 19.5% vs. 64.9% and 61.8%, respectively; P5 cm, tumor number >3, macrovascular invasion, AFP≥400 µg/L, NLR≥3, and HBV-DNA level >5 log10 copies/mL were preoperative predictors of DFS. Cox regression analysis showed macrovascular invasion, tumor number, and high NLR were independent prognostic factors. We then established a preoperative prognostic score based on multivariate analysis. Each factor was given a score of 1. Area under the ROC curve of the score was 0.781. All nine patients with score 3 developed recurrence within 6 months after LT. Of 71 patients without vascular invasion, three patients with both tumor number >3 and NLR≥3 developed recurrence within 14 months after LT while the 5-year DFS and OS for patients with a score of 0 or 1 were 68.1% and 62.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Preoperative elevated NLR significantly increases the risk of recurrence in patients underwent LT for HCC. Patients with both NLR≥3 and tumor number >3 are not a good indication for LT. Our score model may aid in the selection of patients that would most benefit from transplantation for HCC.

  14. Additive prognostic value of coronary artery calcium score and renal function in patients with acute chest pain without known coronary artery disease: up to 5-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaikriangkrai, Kongkiat; Nabi, Faisal; Mahmarian, John J; Chang, Su Min

    2015-12-01

    Long-term incremental prognostic value of renal function over coronary artery calcium score (CACS) in symptomatic patients without known coronary artery disease (CAD) is unclear. The objective of this study was to examine additive prognostic value of renal function over CACS in patients with acute chest pain suspected of CAD. Renal function and CACS were assessed in patients without known CAD who presented to the emergency department with chest pain from 2005 to 2008. Renal function was assessed using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) was defined as eGFR 400: HR 8.88, p renal function and CACS significantly improved the overall predictive performance (p renal function were independent predictors for future cardiac events and provided additive prognostic value to each other and over either Framingham risk categories or TIMI risk score.

  15. Prognostic impact of the residual SYNTAX score on in-hospital outcomes in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Razi; Al-Hawwas, Malek; Hatem, Raja; Azzalini, Lorenzo; Fortier, Annik; Joliecoeur, E Marc; Tanguay, Jean-Francois; Lavoie-L'Allier, Philippe; Ly, Hung Q

    2016-11-01

    This study sought to assess the impact of residual coronary artery disease (CAD), using the residual SYNTAX score (rSS), on in-hospital outcomes after primary percutaneous intervention (PPCI). The study also aimed to determine independent predictors for high rSS. Residual CAD has been associated with worsened prognosis in patients undergoing PCI for non-ST acute coronary syndromes. The rSS is a systematic angiographic score that measures the extent and complexity of residual CAD after PCI. Data from 243 consecutive patients undergoing PPCI for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) were analyzed. The rSS was derived from post-PPCI angiography. Patients were dichotomized into low (rSS (≥8) groups and outcomes were compared between groups. The primary outcome of net adverse cardiovascular events (NACE) consisted of a composite of in-hospital death, congestive heart failure (CHF), recurrent MI and bleeding. The mean rSS was 4.7 (±7.2). A high rSS was associated with the primary outcome (P rSS was also an independent predictor of the primary outcome with an OR of 3.82. Independent predictors of a high rSS included a history of diabetes (OR 2.8), previous MI (OR 5.75), 2-vessel disease (VD) (OR 15.48, vs. 1-VD) and 3-VD (OR 57.06, vs. 1-VD). Residual CAD, as assessed by the rSS, confers a worsened prognosis in patients undergoing PPCI. Diabetes, previous MI and multi-vessel disease were independent predictors of a high rSS. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Comparison of the prognostic value of Chronic Liver Failure Consortium scores and traditional models for predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antunes, Artur Gião; Teixeira, Cristina; Vaz, Ana Margarida; Martins, Cláudio; Queirós, Patrícia; Alves, Ana; Velasco, Francisco; Peixe, Bruno; Oliveira, Ana Paula; Guerreiro, Horácio

    2017-04-01

    Recently, the European Association for the Study of the Liver - Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium defined two new prognostic scores, according to the presence or absence of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF): the CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) and the CLIF-C Acute Decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs). We sought to compare their accuracy in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality with some of the existing models: Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Na, integrated MELD (iMELD), MELD to serum sodium ratio index (MESO), Refit MELD and Refit MELD-Na. Retrospective cohort study that evaluated all admissions due to decompensated cirrhosis in 2 centers between 2011 and 2014. At admission each score was assessed, and the discrimination ability was compared by measuring the area under the ROC curve (AUROC). A total of 779 hospitalizations were evaluated. Two hundred and twenty-two patients met criteria for ACLF (25.9%). The 30- and 90-day mortality were respectively 17.7 and 37.3%. CLIF-C ACLFs presented an AUROC for predicting 30- and 90-day mortality of 0.684 (95% CI: 0.599-0.770) and 0.666 (95% CI: 0.588-0.744) respectively. No statistically significant differences were found when compared to traditional models. For patients without ACLF, CLIF-C ADs had an AUROC for predicting 30- and 90-day mortality of 0.689 (95% CI: 0.614-0.763) and 0.672 (95% CI: 0.624-0.720) respectively. When compared to other scores, it was only statistically superior to MELD for predicting 30-day mortality (p=0.0296). The new CLIF-C scores were not statistically superior to the traditional models, with the exception of CLIF-C ADs for predicting 30-day mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U., AEEH y AEG. All rights reserved.

  17. [Development and validation of risk score model for acute myocardial infarction in China: prognostic value thereof for in hospital major adverse cardiac events and evaluation of revascularization].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiao-fan; Lü, Shu-zheng; Chen, Yun-dai; Pan, Wei-qi; Song, Xian-tao; Li, Jing; Liu, Xin; Wang, Xi-zhi; Zhang, Li-jie; Ren, Fang; Luo, Jing-guang

    2008-07-08

    To develop a simple risk score model of in-hospital major adverse cardiac events (MACE) including all-cause mortality, new or recurrent myocardial infarction (MI), and evaluate the efficacy about revascularization on patients with different risk. The basic characteristics, diagnosis, therapy, and in-hospital outcomes of 1512 ACS patients from Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) study of China were collected to develop a risk score model by multivariable stepwise logistic regression. The goodness-of-fit test and discriminative power of the final model were assessed respectively. The best cut-off value for the risk score was used to assess the impact of revascularization for ST-elevation MI (STEMI) and non-ST elevation acute coronary artery syndrome (NSTEACS) on in-hospital outcomes. (1) The following 6 independent risk factors accounted for about 92.5% of the prognostic information: age > or =80 years (4 points), SBP or =90 mm Hg (2 points), Killip II (3 points), Killip III or IV (9 points), cardiac arrest during presentation (4 points), ST-segment elevation (3 points) or depression (5 points) or combination of elevation and depression (4 points) on electrocardiogram at presentation. (2) CHIEF risk model was excellent with Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test of 0.673 and c statistics of 0.776. (3)1301 ACS patients previously enrolled in GRACE study were divided into 2 groups with the best cut-off value of 5.5 points. The impact of revascularization on the in-hospital MACE of the higher risk subsets was stronger than that of the lower risk subsets both in STEMI [OR (95% CI) = 0.32 (0.11, 0.94), chi2 = 5.39, P = 0.02] and NSTEACS [OR (95% CI) = 0.32 (0.06, 0.94), chi2 =4.17, P = 0.04] population. However, both STEMI (61.7% vs. 78.3%, P = 0.000) and NSTEACS (42.0% vs 62.3%, P = 0.000) patients with the risk scores more than 5.5 points had lower revascularization rates. The risk score provides excellent ability to predict in-hospital death or (re) MI

  18. Score-based likelihood ratios for handwriting evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hepler, Amanda B; Saunders, Christopher P; Davis, Linda J; Buscaglia, JoAnn

    2012-06-10

    Score-based approaches for computing forensic likelihood ratios are becoming more prevalent in the forensic literature. When two items of evidential value are entangled via a scorefunction, several nuances arise when attempting to model the score behavior under the competing source-level propositions. Specific assumptions must be made in order to appropriately model the numerator and denominator probability distributions. This process is fairly straightforward for the numerator of the score-based likelihood ratio, entailing the generation of a database of scores obtained by pairing items of evidence from the same source. However, this process presents ambiguities for the denominator database generation - in particular, how best to generate a database of scores between two items of different sources. Many alternatives have appeared in the literature, three of which we will consider in detail. They differ in their approach to generating denominator databases, by pairing (1) the item of known source with randomly selected items from a relevant database; (2) the item of unknown source with randomly generated items from a relevant database; or (3) two randomly generated items. When the two items differ in type, perhaps one having higher information content, these three alternatives can produce very different denominator databases. While each of these alternatives has appeared in the literature, the decision of how to generate the denominator database is often made without calling attention to the subjective nature of this process. In this paper, we compare each of the three methods (and the resulting score-based likelihood ratios), which can be thought of as three distinct interpretations of the denominator proposition. Our goal in performing these comparisons is to illustrate the effect that subtle modifications of these propositions can have on inferences drawn from the evidence evaluation procedure. The study was performed using a data set composed of cursive writing

  19. Standardized Computer-based Organized Reporting of EEG: SCORE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniczky, Sándor; Aurlien, Harald; Brøgger, Jan C; Fuglsang-Frederiksen, Anders; Martins-da-Silva, António; Trinka, Eugen; Visser, Gerhard; Rubboli, Guido; Hjalgrim, Helle; Stefan, Hermann; Rosén, Ingmar; Zarubova, Jana; Dobesberger, Judith; Alving, Jørgen; Andersen, Kjeld V; Fabricius, Martin; Atkins, Mary D; Neufeld, Miri; Plouin, Perrine; Marusic, Petr; Pressler, Ronit; Mameniskiene, Ruta; Hopfengärtner, Rüdiger; Emde Boas, Walter; Wolf, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The electroencephalography (EEG) signal has a high complexity, and the process of extracting clinically relevant features is achieved by visual analysis of the recordings. The interobserver agreement in EEG interpretation is only moderate. This is partly due to the method of reporting the findings in free-text format. The purpose of our endeavor was to create a computer-based system for EEG assessment and reporting, where the physicians would construct the reports by choosing from predefined elements for each relevant EEG feature, as well as the clinical phenomena (for video-EEG recordings). A working group of EEG experts took part in consensus workshops in Dianalund, Denmark, in 2010 and 2011. The faculty was approved by the Commission on European Affairs of the International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE). The working group produced a consensus proposal that went through a pan-European review process, organized by the European Chapter of the International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. The Standardised Computer-based Organised Reporting of EEG (SCORE) software was constructed based on the terms and features of the consensus statement and it was tested in the clinical practice. The main elements of SCORE are the following: personal data of the patient, referral data, recording conditions, modulators, background activity, drowsiness and sleep, interictal findings, “episodes” (clinical or subclinical events), physiologic patterns, patterns of uncertain significance, artifacts, polygraphic channels, and diagnostic significance. The following specific aspects of the neonatal EEGs are scored: alertness, temporal organization, and spatial organization. For each EEG finding, relevant features are scored using predefined terms. Definitions are provided for all EEG terms and features. SCORE can potentially improve the quality of EEG assessment and reporting; it will help incorporate the results of computer-assisted analysis into the report, it will make

  20. Score based procedures for the calculation of forensic likelihood ratios - Scores should take account of both similarity and typicality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Geoffrey Stewart; Enzinger, Ewald

    2018-01-01

    Score based procedures for the calculation of forensic likelihood ratios are popular across different branches of forensic science. They have two stages, first a function or model which takes measured features from known-source and questioned-source pairs as input and calculates scores as output, then a subsequent model which converts scores to likelihood ratios. We demonstrate that scores which are purely measures of similarity are not appropriate for calculating forensically interpretable likelihood ratios. In addition to taking account of similarity between the questioned-origin specimen and the known-origin sample, scores must also take account of the typicality of the questioned-origin specimen with respect to a sample of the relevant population specified by the defence hypothesis. We use Monte Carlo simulations to compare the output of three score based procedures with reference likelihood ratio values calculated directly from the fully specified Monte Carlo distributions. The three types of scores compared are: 1. non-anchored similarity-only scores; 2. non-anchored similarity and typicality scores; and 3. known-source anchored same-origin scores and questioned-source anchored different-origin scores. We also make a comparison with the performance of a procedure using a dichotomous "match"/"non-match" similarity score, and compare the performance of 1 and 2 on real data. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Mathematical Frameworks for Diagnostics, Prognostics and Condition Based Maintenance Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-08-15

    English speaking countries are required to have a minimum score of 500 on the Test of English as a Foreign Language ( TOEFL ). Unconditional Admission...been carried out through training and testing the algorithms with real and simulated data. Effects of various parameters including size of the...parametric studies of Margin-Setting have been carried out through training and testing the algorithms with real and simulated data. Effects of various

  2. Long-term prognostic value of risk scores after drug-eluting stent implantation for unprotected left main coronary artery: A pooled analysis of the ISAR-LEFT-MAIN and ISAR-LEFT-MAIN 2 randomized clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xhepa, Erion; Tada, Tomohisa; Kufner, Sebastian; Ndrepepa, Gjin; Byrne, Robert A; Kreutzer, Johanna; Ibrahim, Tareq; Tiroch, Klaus; Valgimigli, Marco; Tölg, Ralf; Cassese, Salvatore; Fusaro, Massimiliano; Schunkert, Heribert; Laugwitz, Karl L; Mehilli, Julinda; Kastrati, Adnan

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate the long-term prognostic value of risk scores in the setting of drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation for uLMCA. Data on the prognostic value of novel risk scores developed to select the most appropriate revascularization strategy in patients undergoing DES implantation for uLMCA disease are relatively limited. The study represents a patient-level pooled analysis of the ISAR-LEFT-MAIN (607 patients randomized to paclitaxel-eluting or sirolimus-eluting stents) and the ISAR-LEFT-MAIN-2 (650 patients randomized to everolimus-eluting or zotarolimus-eluting stents) randomized trials. The Syntax Score (SxScore) as well the Syntax Score II (SS-II), the EuroSCORE and the Global Risk Classification (GRC) were calculated. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. At a mean follow-up of 3 years there were 160 deaths (12.7%). The death-incidence was significantly higher in the upper tertiles than in the intermediate or lower ones for all risk scores (log-rank test P risk scores were able to stratify the mortality risk at long-term follow-up. EuroSCORE was the only risk score that significantly improved the discriminatory power of a multivariable model to predict long-term mortality. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Early FDG-PET assessment in combination with clinical risk scores determines prognosis in recurring lymphoma

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schot, Bart W.; Zijlstra, Josee M.; Sluiter, Wilm J.; van Imhoff, Gustaaf W.; Pruim, Jan; Vaalburg, Willem; Vellenga, Edo

    2007-01-01

    This study was set up to demonstrate whether prognostic classification based on the secondary age-adjusted International Prognostic Index (sAA-IPI) for recurring aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) or the prognostic score for recurring Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) can be improved by including the

  4. Opportunistic splitting for scheduling using a score-based approach

    KAUST Repository

    Rashid, Faraan

    2012-06-01

    We consider the problem of scheduling a user in a multi-user wireless environment in a distributed manner. The opportunistic splitting algorithm is applied to find the best group of users without reporting the channel state information to the centralized scheduler. The users find the best among themselves while requiring just a ternary feedback from the common receiver at the end of each mini-slot. The original splitting algorithm is modified to handle users with asymmetric channel conditions. We use a score-based approach with the splitting algorithm to introduce time and throughput fairness while exploiting the multi-user diversity of the network. Analytical and simulation results are given to show that the modified score-based splitting algorithm works well as a fair scheduling scheme with good spectral efficiency and reduced feedback. © 2012 IEEE.

  5. Prognostic performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II in major Croatian hospitals: a prospective multicenter study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desa, Kristian; Peric, Mladen; Husedzinovic, Ino; Sustic, Alan; Korusic, Andelko; Karadza, Vjekoslav; Matlekovic, Drazen; Prstec-Veronek, Branka; Zuvic-Butorac, Marta; Sokolic, Jadranko; Siranovic, Mladen; Bosnjak, Danica; Spicek-Macan, Jasna; Gustin, Denis; Ozeg-Jakopovic, Drazenka

    2012-10-01

    To perform an external validation of the original Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) system and to assess its performance in a selected group of patients in major Croatian hospitals. A prospective, multicenter study was conducted in five university hospitals and one general hospital during a six-month period between November 1, 2007 and May 1, 2008. Standardized hospital mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated from the mean predicted mortality of all the 2756 patients and the actual mortality for the same group of patients. The validation of SAPS II was made using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), 2×2 classification tables, and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests. The predicted mortality was as low as 14.6% due to a small proportion of medical patients and the SMR being 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78-0.98). The SAPS II system demonstrated a good discriminatory power as measured by the AUC (0.85; standard error [SE]=0.012; 95% CI=0.840-0.866; P<0.001). This system significantly overestimated the actual mortality (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit H statistic: χ(2) =584.4; P<0.001 and C statistics: χ(2)(8) =313.0; P<0.001) in the group of patients included in the study. The SAPS II had a good discrimination, but it significantly overestimated the observed mortality in comparison with the predicted mortality in this group of patients in Croatia. Therefore, caution is required when an evaluation is performed at the individual level.

  6. A simple and effective prognostic staging system based on clinicopathologic features of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Huabang; Jiang, Xiaolan; Li, Qiaomei; Hu, Jingyi; Zhong, Zhengrong; Wang, Hao; Wang, Hui; Yang, Bing; Hu, Heping

    2015-01-01

    Incidence and mortality of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) are increasing. However, its prognostic predictive system associated with outcome after surgery remains poorly defined. In this study, we conducted retrospective survival analyses in a primary cohort of 370 patients who underwent partial hepatectomy for ICC (2005 and 2009). We found that seven variables were significantly independent predictors for overall survival (OS): serum prealbumin (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.447; p = 0.015), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (HR: 1.438; p = 0.009), carcinoembryonic antigen (HR: 1.732; p = 0.002), tumor number (HR: 1.781; p system for predicting survival of ICC patients after resection. The validity of the prognostic staging system was prospectively assessed in 115 patients who underwent partial hepatectomy between January 2010 and December 2010 at the same institution. The prognostic power was quantified using likelihood ratio test and Akaike information criteria. Compared with the 6(th) and 7(th) AJCC staging systems, the new staging system in the primary cohort had a higher predictive accuracy for OS in terms of homogeneity and discriminatory ability. In the validation cohort, the homogeneity and discrimination of the new staging system were also superior to the two other staging systems. The new staging system based on clinicopathologic features may provide relatively higher accuracy in prognostic prediction for ICC patients after tumor resection.

  7. Long-term prognostic impact of CT-Leaman score in patients with non-obstructive CAD: Results from the COronary CT Angiography EvaluatioN For Clinical Outcomes InteRnational Multicenter (CONFIRM) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreini, Daniele; Pontone, Gianluca; Mushtaq, Saima; Gransar, Heidi; Conte, Edoardo; Bartorelli, Antonio L; Pepi, Mauro; Opolski, Maksymilian P; Ó Hartaigh, Bríain; Berman, Daniel S; Budoff, Matthew J; Achenbach, Stephan; Al-Mallah, Mouaz; Cademartiri, Filippo; Callister, Tracy Q; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha; Chow, Benjamin J W; Cury, Ricardo; Delago, Augustin; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Joerg; Feuchtner, Gudrun; Kim, Yong-Jin; Kaufmann, Philipp A; Leipsic, Jonathon; Lin, Fay Y; Maffei, Erica; Raff, Gilbert; Shaw, Leslee J; Villines, Todd C; Dunning, Allison; Marques, Hugo; Rubinshtein, Ronen; Hindoyan, Niree; Gomez, Millie; Min, James K

    2017-03-15

    Non-obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) identified by coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) demonstrated prognostic value. CT-adapted Leaman score (CT-LeSc) showed to improve the prognostic stratification. Aim of the study was to evaluate the capability of CT-LeSc to assess long-term prognosis of patients with non-obstructive (CAD). From 17 centers, we enrolled 2402 patients without prior CAD history who underwent CCTA that showed non-obstructive CAD and provided complete information on plaque composition. Patients were divided into a group without CAD and a group with non-obstructive CAD (CAD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Prognostic performance of MR-pro-adrenomedullin in patients with community acquired pneumonia in the Emergency Department compared to clinical severity scores PSI and CURB.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacopo Maria Legramante

    Full Text Available (i evaluate the performance of MR-pro-ADM in reflecting the outcome and risk for CAP patients in the emergency department, and (ii compare the prognostic performance of MR-pro-ADM with that of clinical scores PSI and CURB65.Observational prospective, single-center study in patients with suspected community acquired pneumonia (CAP. Eighty one patients underwent full clinical and laboratory assessment as by protocol, and were followed up a 28 days. Primary endpoints measured were: death, death at 14 days, non-invasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV, endotracheal intubation (EI, ICU admission, overall hospital stay >10 days, emergency department stay >4 days. The discriminative performance of MR-pro-ADM and clinical scores was assessed by AUROC analysis.The distribution for MR-pro-ADM followed an upward trend, increasing with the increase of both PSI (p10 days and DE stay >4 days, compared to the PSI and CURB (though difference not statistically significant. For each endpoint measured, the best thresholds values for Mr-pro-ADM were: 1.6 (specificity 76.5%; sensitivity 77.8% for death; 2.5 (specificity 88.9%; sensitivity 80.0% for death at 14 days; 1.5 (specificity 77.0%; sensitivity 87.5% for NIMV; 2.4 (specificity 88.7%; sensitivity 83.3% for endotracheal intubation; 0.9 (specificity 53.5%; sensitivity 70.6% for DE stay greater than 4 days; 1.9 (specificity 82.1%; sensitivity 55.3% for hospital stay greater than 10 days. The AUC for the combination of MR-pro-ADM and PSI was 81.29% [63.41%-99.17%], but not in a statistically significant manner compared to the AUCs of the single predictors. Conversely, the AUC for the combination of MR-pro-ADM and CURB65 was 87.58% [75.54%-99.62%], which was significantly greater than the AUC of CURB65 (p = 0.047 or PSI (p = 0.017 alone.The present study confirms that assessment of MR-pro-ADM levels in CAP patients in addition to CURB scores increases the prognostic accuracy of CURB alone and may help rule out

  9. Classification of Airflow Limitation Based on z-Score Underestimates Mortality in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejero, Elena; Prats, Eva; Casitas, Raquel; Galera, Raúl; Pardo, Paloma; Gavilán, Adelaida; Martínez-Cerón, Elisabet; Cubillos-Zapata, Carolina; Del Peso, Luis; García-Río, Francisco

    2017-08-01

    Global Lung Function Initiative recommends reporting lung function measures as z-score, and a classification of airflow limitation (AL) based on this parameter has recently been proposed. To evaluate the prognostic capacity of the AL classifications based on z-score or percentage predicted of FEV 1 in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). A cohort of 2,614 patients with COPD recruited outside the hospital setting was examined after a mean (± SD) of 57 ± 13 months of follow-up, totaling 10,322 person-years. All-cause mortality was analyzed, evaluating the predictive capacity of several AL staging systems. Based on Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease guidelines, 461 patients (17.6%) had mild, 1,452 (55.5%) moderate, 590 (22.6%) severe, and 111 (4.2%) very severe AL. According to z-score classification, 66.3% of patients remained with the same severity, whereas 23.7% worsened and 10.0% improved. Unlike other staging systems, patients with severe AL according to z-score had higher mortality than those with very severe AL (increase of risk by 5.2 and 3.9 times compared with mild AL, respectively). The predictive capacity for 5-year survival was slightly higher for FEV 1 expressed as percentage of predicted than as z-score (area under the curve: 0.714-0.760 vs. 0.649-0.708, respectively). A severity-dependent relationship between AL grades by z-score and mortality was only detected in patients younger than age 60 years. In patients with COPD, the AL classification based on z-score predicts worse mortality than those based on percentage of predicted. It is possible that the z-score underestimates AL severity in patients older than 60 years of age with severe functional impairment.

  10. Short- and long-term prognostic value of the TIMI risk score after primary percutaneous coronary intervention for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damman, Peter; Woudstra, Pier; Kuijt, Wichert J; Kikkert, Wouter J; van de Hoef, Tim P; Grundeken, Maik J; Harskamp, Ralf E; Henriques, Jose P S; Piek, Jan J; Tijssen, Jan G P; de Winter, Robbert J

    2013-02-01

    We investigated the short- and long-term predictive value of the TIMI risk score regarding mortality for patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Data on the long-term predictive value of the TIMI risk score is sparse. We used data from 3,609 STEMI patients undergoing PPCI in a high-volume PCI center in The Netherlands. Cumulative event rates according to TIMI score variables were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared with the log-rank test. The original TIMI risk score was modified based on the availability of the data in the single center registry. Higher TIMI scores were associated with significantly higher mortality at short- and long-term follow-up (P 100 beats per minute, or systolic blood pressure TIMI risk score has both short- and long-term discriminative value. The different variables contained in the TIMI risk score predict short-term prognosis, others predominantly long-term mortality, whereas some are predictive for both. © 2012, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Risk stratification and prognostic value of grace and timi risk scores for female patients with non-st segment elevation acute coronary syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hang; Xue, Hao; Wang, Haotian; Chen, Yundai; Zhou, Shanshan; Tian, Feng; Hu, Shunying; Wang, Jing; Yang, Junjie; Zhang, Tao

    2015-01-01

    Aim: To investigate the value of Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) and Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores for risk stratification and prognosis in female patients with non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). Methods: Non-elderly (risk groups according to their GRACE and TIMI scores. Patients were followed up for 1 year to record the mortality and incidence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Differences in mortality and MACE incidence between the two scoring systems were compared by the area under the ROC curve. Results: The area under ROC curve corresponding to the mortality and MACE incidence in any period by the GRACE scoring system was significantly larger than the TIMI scoring system in the elderly patients (Pscores. Risk ratio values of Cox regression analysis based on GRACE and TIMI scores were greater than 1 (PTIMI were adoptable in clinical risk stratification and prognosis of female patients with NSTE-ACS at different age groups. GRACE showed better accuracy than the TIMI scores. PMID:26064307

  12. An Advanced Deep Learning Approach for Ki-67 Stained Hotspot Detection and Proliferation Rate Scoring for Prognostic Evaluation of Breast Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Monjoy; Chakraborty, Chandan; Arun, Indu; Ahmed, Rosina; Chatterjee, Sanjoy

    2017-06-12

    Being a non-histone protein, Ki-67 is one of the essential biomarkers for the immunohistochemical assessment of proliferation rate in breast cancer screening and grading. The Ki-67 signature is always sensitive to radiotherapy and chemotherapy. Due to random morphological, color and intensity variations of cell nuclei (immunopositive and immunonegative), manual/subjective assessment of Ki-67 scoring is error-prone and time-consuming. Hence, several machine learning approaches have been reported; nevertheless, none of them had worked on deep learning based hotspots detection and proliferation scoring. In this article, we suggest an advanced deep learning model for computerized recognition of candidate hotspots and subsequent proliferation rate scoring by quantifying Ki-67 appearance in breast cancer immunohistochemical images. Unlike existing Ki-67 scoring techniques, our methodology uses Gamma mixture model (GMM) with Expectation-Maximization for seed point detection and patch selection and deep learning, comprises with decision layer, for hotspots detection and proliferation scoring. Experimental results provide 93% precision, 0.88% recall and 0.91% F-score value. The model performance has also been compared with the pathologists' manual annotations and recently published articles. In future, the proposed deep learning framework will be highly reliable and beneficial to the junior and senior pathologists for fast and efficient Ki-67 scoring.

  13. Electromechanical actuators affected by multiple failures: Prognostic method based on spectral analysis techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belmonte, D.; Vedova, M. D. L. Dalla; Ferro, C.; Maggiore, P.

    2017-06-01

    The proposal of prognostic algorithms able to identify precursors of incipient failures of primary flight command electromechanical actuators (EMA) is beneficial for the anticipation of the incoming failure: an early and correct interpretation of the failure degradation pattern, in fact, can trig an early alert of the maintenance crew, who can properly schedule the servomechanism replacement. An innovative prognostic model-based approach, able to recognize the EMA progressive degradations before his anomalous behaviors become critical, is proposed: the Fault Detection and Identification (FDI) of the considered incipient failures is performed analyzing proper system operational parameters, able to put in evidence the corresponding degradation path, by means of a numerical algorithm based on spectral analysis techniques. Subsequently, these operational parameters will be correlated with the actual EMA health condition by means of failure maps created by a reference monitoring model-based algorithm. In this work, the proposed method has been tested in case of EMA affected by combined progressive failures: in particular, partial stator single phase turn to turn short-circuit and rotor static eccentricity are considered. In order to evaluate the prognostic method, a numerical test-bench has been conceived. Results show that the method exhibit adequate robustness and a high degree of confidence in the ability to early identify an eventual malfunctioning, minimizing the risk of fake alarms or unannounced failures.

  14. Prediction of 18-month survival in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome. A regression model and scoring system based on the combination of chromosome findings and the Bournemouth score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parlier, V; van Melle, G; Beris, P; Schmidt, P M; Tobler, A; Haller, E; Bellomo, M J

    1995-06-01

    The predictive potential of six selected factors was assessed in 72 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of survival at 18 months. Factors were age (above median of 69 years), dysplastic features in the three myeloid bone marrow cell lineages, presence of chromosome defects, all metaphases abnormal, double or complex chromosome defects (C23), and a Bournemouth score of 2, 3, or 4 (B234). In the multivariate approach, B234 and C23 proved to be significantly associated with a reduction in the survival probability. The similarity of the regression coefficients associated with these two factors means that they have about the same weight. Consequently, the model was simplified by counting the number of factors (0, 1, or 2) present in each patient, thus generating a scoring system called the Lausanne-Bournemouth score (LB score). The LB score combines the well-recognized and easy-to-use Bournemouth score (B score) with the chromosome defect complexity, C23 constituting an additional indicator of patient outcome. The predicted risk of death within 18 months calculated from the model is as follows: 7.1% (confidence interval: 1.7-24.8) for patients with an LB score of 0, 60.1% (44.7-73.8) for an LB score of 1, and 96.8% (84.5-99.4) for an LB score of 2. The scoring system presented here has several interesting features. The LB score may improve the predictive value of the B score, as it is able to recognize two prognostic groups in the intermediate risk category of patients with B scores of 2 or 3. It has also the ability to identify two distinct prognostic subclasses among RAEB and possibly CMML patients. In addition to its above-described usefulness in the prognostic evaluation, the LB score may bring new insights into the understanding of evolution patterns in MDS. We used the combination of the B score and chromosome complexity to define four classes which may be considered four possible states of

  15. Do medical students’ scores using different assessment instruments predict their scores in clinical reasoning using a computer-based simulation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fida M

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Mariam Fida,1 Salah Eldin Kassab2 1Department of Molecular Medicine, College of Medicine and Medical Sciences, Arabian Gulf University, Manama, Bahrain; 2Department of Medical Education, Faculty of Medicine, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt Purpose: The development of clinical problem-solving skills evolves over time and requires structured training and background knowledge. Computer-based case simulations (CCS have been used for teaching and assessment of clinical reasoning skills. However, previous studies examining the psychometric properties of CCS as an assessment tool have been controversial. Furthermore, studies reporting the integration of CCS into problem-based medical curricula have been limited. Methods: This study examined the psychometric properties of using CCS software (DxR Clinician for assessment of medical students (n=130 studying in a problem-based, integrated multisystem module (Unit IX during the academic year 2011–2012. Internal consistency reliability of CCS scores was calculated using Cronbach's alpha statistics. The relationships between students' scores in CCS components (clinical reasoning, diagnostic performance, and patient management and their scores in other examination tools at the end of the unit including multiple-choice questions, short-answer questions, objective structured clinical examination (OSCE, and real patient encounters were analyzed using stepwise hierarchical linear regression. Results: Internal consistency reliability of CCS scores was high (α=0.862. Inter-item correlations between students' scores in different CCS components and their scores in CCS and other test items were statistically significant. Regression analysis indicated that OSCE scores predicted 32.7% and 35.1% of the variance in clinical reasoning and patient management scores, respectively (P<0.01. Multiple-choice question scores, however, predicted only 15.4% of the variance in diagnostic performance scores (P<0.01, while

  16. Physics Based Electrolytic Capacitor Degradation Models for Prognostic Studies under Thermal Overstress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Celaya, Jose R.; Goebel, Kai; Biswas, Gautam

    2012-01-01

    Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on safety critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. This makes them good candidates for prognostics and health management research. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of components or systems based on their current state of health and their anticipated future use and operational conditions. Past experiences show that capacitors tend to degrade and fail faster under high electrical and thermal stress conditions that they are often subjected to during operations. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.

  17. Prognostic and Remaining Life Prediction of Electronic Device under Vibration Condition Based on CPSD of MPI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Prognostic of electronic device under vibration condition can help to get information to assist in condition-based maintenance and reduce life-cycle cost. A prognostic and remaining life prediction method for electronic devices under random vibration condition is proposed. Vibration response is measured and monitored with acceleration sensor and OMA parameters, including vibration resonance frequency, especially first-order resonance frequency, and damping ratio is calculated with cross-power spectrum density (CPSD method and modal parameter identification (MPI algorithm. Steinberg vibration fatigue model which considers transmissibility factor is used to predict the remaining life of electronic component. Case study with a test board is carried out and remaining life is predicted. Results show that with this method the vibration response characteristic can be monitored and predicted.

  18. Prognostic factors for open globe injuries and correlation of Ocular Trauma Score at a tertiary referral eye care centre in Singapore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rupesh Agrawal

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the factors influencing final vision outcome after surgical repair of open globe injuries and to correlate the Ocular trauma score. Materials and Methods: Retrospective case analysis of patients with open globe injuries at a tertiary referral eye care centre in Singapore was performed. Pre-operative factors affecting final vision outcome in patients with open globe injury and correlation of ocular trauma score in our study with international ocular trauma scoring system was performed. Results: Case records of 172 eyes with open globe injury were analyzed. Mean age was 36. 67 years. Mean follow up was 12.26 m. Males were pre-dominantly affected. Initial visual acuity was ≥20/40, 20/50 < 20/200, 20/200- CF, HM- PL and NLP in 24 (14%, 39 (22.7%, 16 (9.3%, 66 (38.4% and 27 (15.7% eyes respectively. Final visual acuity was ≤20/40, 20/50 < 20/200, 20/200- 1/200, HM- PL and NLP in 76 (44.2%, 28 (16.3%, 11 (6.4%, 30 (17.4% and 27 (15.7% eyes respectively. Ocular trauma score in our study correlates with international ocular trauma scoring system. Conclusion: The present study showed pre-operative variables such as mode of injury, pre-operative visual acuity, traumatic cataract, hyphaema, relative afferent papillary defect, vitreous lossand vitreous hemorrhage to be adversely affecting the final vision outcome. Our study showed a good synchrony with international ocular trauma score (OTS and based on this study we were able to validate application of OTS in Singapore population. Recognizing these factors can help the surgeon in evidence based counseling.

  19. Attribute Control Chart Construction Based on Fuzzy Score Number

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiwang Hou

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available There is much uncertainty and fuzziness in product quality attributes or quality parameters of a manufacturing process, so the traditional quality control chart can be difficult to apply. This paper proposes a fuzzy control chart. The plotted data was obtained by transforming expert scores into fuzzy numbers. Two types of nonconformity judgment rules—necessity and possibility measurement rules—are proposed. Through graphical analysis, the nonconformity judging method (i.e., assessing directly based on the shape feature of a fuzzy control chart is proposed. For four different widely used membership functions, control levels were analyzed and compared by observing gaps between the upper and lower control limits. The result of the case study validates the feasibility and reliability of the proposed approach.

  20. Prognostic factors in skull base chordoma: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Ming-Xiang; Lv, Guo-Hua; Zhang, Qian-Shi; Wang, Shao-Fu; Li, Jing; Wang, Xiao-Bin

    2017-10-15

    Currently, there are still lack of reviews assessing the complete range of prognostic factors in skull base chordoma (SBC). This study aimed to systematically review the published literature on prognostic factors in SBC and to establish pooled hazard ratios (HRs) of such factors. MEDLINE and EMBASE search (inception to April 04, 2017). Two reviewers independently selected papers involving SBC prognostic factors, and studied them for methodological quality and valuable factors. Pooled HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. The main endpoints determined were progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). 22 studies with 1754 subjects were included in this systematic review. However, only 18 of them provided sufficient data for quantitative synthesis. Preoperative visual deficit (pooled HR = 2.77, 95% CI: 1.57-4.89 for PFS), older patient age (pooled HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.1-1.05 for PFS; pooled HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.2-1.04 for OS) and nontotal or intralesional tumor resection (pooled HR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.54-2.62 for PFS; pooled HR = 5.16, 95% CI: 2.27-11.70 for OS) were negative predictors of survival outcomes. However, adjunctive radiotherapy (pooled HR = 0.30, 95% CI: 0.16-0.56) and chondroid chordoma type (pooled HR = 0.5, 95% CI: 0.36-0.69) portended a favorable PFS. In addition, several prognostic biomarkers were promising. This study demonstrated that several clinicopathological or molecular parameters are associated with survival up to tumor progression or mortality in SBC patients. However, further methodologically high-quality reports are still required to clarify the effects of these factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgarpour, Masoud

    2017-01-01

    The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...... monitoring, fault detection and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution...

  2. Retrospective study on prognostic importance of serum procalcitonin and amino - terminal pro - brain natriuretic peptide levels as compared to Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV Score on Intensive Care Unit admission, in a mixed Intensive Care Unit population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chitra Mehta

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Timely decision making in Intensive Care Unit (ICU is very essential to improve the outcome of critically sick patients. Conventional scores like Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE IV are quite cumbersome with calculations and take minimum 24 hours. Procalcitonin has shown to have prognostic value in ICU/Emergency department (ED in disease states like pneumonia, sepsis etc. NTproBNP has demonstrated excellent diagnostic and prognostic importance in cardiac diseases. It has also been found elevated in non-cardiac diseases. We chose to study the prognostic utility of these markers on ICU admission. Settings and Design: Retrospective observational study. Materials and Methods: A Retrospective analysis of 100 eligible patients was done who had undergone PCT and NTproBNP measurements on ICU admission. Their correlations with all cause mortality, length of hospital stay, need for ventilator support, need for vasopressors were performed. Results: Among 100 randomly selected ICU patients, 28 were non-survivors. NTproBNP values on admission significantly correlated with all cause mortality (P = 0.036, AUC = 0.643 and morbidity (P = 0.000, AUC = 0.763, comparable to that of APACHE-IV score. PCT values on admission did not show significant association with mortality, but correlated well with morbidity and prolonged hospital length of stay (AUC = 0.616, P = 0.045. Conclusion: The current study demonstrated a good predictive value of NTproBNP, in terms of mortality and morbidity comparable to that of APACHE-IV score. Procalcitonin, however, was found to have doubtful prognostic importance. These findings need to be confirmed in a prospective larger study.

  3. Prognostic Value of Coronary Artery Calcium Score in Acute Chest Pain Patients Without Known Coronary Artery Disease: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaikriangkrai, Kongkiat; Palamaner Subash Shantha, Ghanshyam; Jhun, Hye Yeon; Ungprasert, Patompong; Sigurdsson, Gardar; Nabi, Faisal; Mahmarian, John J; Chang, Su Min

    2016-12-01

    Coronary artery calcium score (CACS) is a well-established test for risk stratifying asymptomatic patients. Recent studies also indicate that CACS may accurately risk stratify stable patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with acute chest pain; however, many were underpowered. The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to evaluate the prognostic value and accuracy of a zero (normal) CACS for identifying patients at acceptable low risk for future cardiovascular events who might be safely discharged home from the ED. We searched multiple databases for longitudinal studies of CACS in symptomatic patients without known coronary artery disease that reported major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), including death and myocardial infarction. Pooled risk ratios, sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios were analyzed. Eight studies evaluated 3,556 patients, with a median follow-up of 10.5 months. Pooled prevalence of zero CACS was 60%. Patients with CACS=0 had a significantly lower risk of cardiovascular events compared with those with CACS greater than 0 (MACEs: relative risk 0.06, 95% confidence interval 0.04 to 0.11, I(2)=0%; death/myocardial infarction: relative risk 0.19; 95% confidence interval 0.08 to 0.47, I(2)=0%). The pooled event rates for CACS=0 (MACEs 0.8%/year; death/myocardial infarction 0.5%/year) were significantly lower than for CACS greater than 0 (MACEs 14.6%/year; death/myocardial infarction 3.5%/year). Analysis of summary testing parameters showed a sensitivity of 96%, specificity of 60%, positive likelihood ratio of 2.36, and negative likelihood ratio of 0.07. Acute chest pain patients without history of coronary artery disease, ischemic ECG changes, or increased cardiac enzyme levels commonly have a CACS of zero, with a very low subsequent risk of MACEs or death or myocardial infarction. This meta-analysis proffers the potential role of initial CACS testing for avoiding unnecessary hospitalization and further

  4. Prognostic Factors and Treatment Results After Bleomycin, Etoposide, and Cisplatin in Germ Cell Cancer: A Population-based Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kier, Maria G; Lauritsen, Jakob; Mortensen, Mette S

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: First-line treatment for patients with disseminated germ cell cancer (GCC) is bleomycin, etoposide, and cisplatin (BEP). A prognostic classification of patients receiving chemotherapy was published by the International Germ Cell Cancer Collaborative Group (IGCCCG) in 1997, but only...... a small proportion of the patients received BEP. OBJECTIVE: To estimate survival probabilities after BEP, evaluate the IGCCCG prognostic classification, and propose new prognostic factors for outcome. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Of a Danish population-based cohort of GCC patients (1984-2007), 1889...... received first-line BEP, with median follow-up of 15 yr. Covariates evaluated as prognostic factors were age, year of treatment, primary site, non-pulmonary visceral metastases, pulmonary metastases, and tumor markers. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Outcomes measured were 5-yr progression...

  5. Score-based tests of measurement invariance: Use in practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting eWang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a family of recently-proposed measurement invariance tests that are based on the scores of a fitted model. This family can be used to test for measurement invariance w.r.t. a continuous auxiliary variable, without pre-specification of subgroups. Moreover, the family can be used when one wishes to test for measurement invariance w.r.t. an ordinal auxiliary variable, yielding test statistics that are sensitive to violations that are monotonically related to the ordinal variable (and less sensitive to non-monotonic violations. The paper is specifically aimed at potential users of the tests who may wish to know (i how the tests can be employed for their data, and (ii whether the tests can accurately identify specific models parameters that violate measurement invariance (possibly in the presence of model misspecification. After providing an overview of the tests, we illustrate their general use via the R packages lavaan and strucchange. We then describe two novel simulations that provide evidence of the tests' practical abilities. As a whole, the paper provides researchers with the tools and knowledge needed to apply these tests to general measurement invariance scenarios.

  6. Electroencephalogram-based decoding cognitive states using convolutional neural network and likelihood ratio based score fusion

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Raheel Zafar; Sarat C Dass; Aamir Saeed Malik

    2017-01-01

    .... In this hybrid algorithm, convolutional neural network is modified for the extraction of features, a t-test is used for the selection of significant features and likelihood ratio-based score fusion...

  7. Prognostic transcriptional association networks: a new supervised approach based on regression trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nepomuceno-Chamorro, Isabel; Azuaje, Francisco; Devaux, Yvan; Nazarov, Petr V.; Muller, Arnaud; Aguilar-Ruiz, Jesús S.; Wagner, Daniel R.

    2011-01-01

    Motivation: The application of information encoded in molecular networks for prognostic purposes is a crucial objective of systems biomedicine. This approach has not been widely investigated in the cardiovascular research area. Within this area, the prediction of clinical outcomes after suffering a heart attack would represent a significant step forward. We developed a new quantitative prediction-based method for this prognostic problem based on the discovery of clinically relevant transcriptional association networks. This method integrates regression trees and clinical class-specific networks, and can be applied to other clinical domains. Results: Before analyzing our cardiovascular disease dataset, we tested the usefulness of our approach on a benchmark dataset with control and disease patients. We also compared it to several algorithms to infer transcriptional association networks and classification models. Comparative results provided evidence of the prediction power of our approach. Next, we discovered new models for predicting good and bad outcomes after myocardial infarction. Using blood-derived gene expression data, our models reported areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve above 0.70. Our model could also outperform different techniques based on co-expressed gene modules. We also predicted processes that may represent novel therapeutic targets for heart disease, such as the synthesis of leucine and isoleucine. Availability: The SATuRNo software is freely available at http://www.lsi.us.es/isanepo/toolsSaturno/. Contact: inepomuceno@us.es Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:21098433

  8. DIC score in pregnant women--a population based modification of the International Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis score.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Offer Erez

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were: 1 To determine the component needed to generate a validated DIC score during pregnancy. 2 To validate such scoring system in the identification of patients with clinical diagnosis of DIC. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This is a population based retrospective study, including all women who gave birth at the 'Soroka University Medical Center' during the study period, and have had blood coagulation tests including complete blood cell count, prothrombin time (PT(seconds, partial thromboplastin time (aPTT, fibrinogen, and D-dimers. Nomograms for pregnancy were established, and DIC score was constructed based on ROC curve analyses. RESULTS: 1 maternal plasma fibrinogen concentrations increased during pregnancy; 2 maternal platelet count decreased gradually during gestation; 3 the PT and PTT values did not change with advancing gestation; 4 PT difference had an area under the curve (AUC of 0.96 (p<0.001, and a PT difference ≥1.55 had an 87% sensitivity and 90% specificity for the diagnosis of DIC; 5 the platelet count had an AUC of 0.87 (p<0.001, an 86% sensitivity and 71% specificity for the diagnosis of DIC; 6 fibrinogen concentrations had an AUC of 0.95 (p<0.001 and a cutoff point ≤3.9 g/L had a sensitivity of 87% and a specificity of 92% for the development of DIC; and 7 The pregnancy adjusted DIC score had an AUC of 0.975 (p<0.001 and at a cutoff point of ≥26 had a sensitivity of 88%, a specificity of 96%, a LR(+ of 22 and a LR(- of 0.125 for the diagnosis of DIC. CONCLUSION: We could establish a sensitive and specific pregnancy adjusted DIC score. The positive likelihood ratio of this score suggests that a patient with a score of ≥26 has a high probability to have DIC.

  9. Hospital Value-Based Purchasing (HVBP) – Heart Failure Scores

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — A list of hospitals participating in the Hospital VBP Program and their performance rates and scores for the Clinical Process of Care Heart Failure measures.

  10. Machine health prognostics using the Bayesian-inference-based probabilistic indication and high-order particle filtering framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jianbo

    2015-12-01

    Prognostics is much efficient to achieve zero-downtime performance, maximum productivity and proactive maintenance of machines. Prognostics intends to assess and predict the time evolution of machine health degradation so that machine failures can be predicted and prevented. A novel prognostics system is developed based on the data-model-fusion scheme using the Bayesian inference-based self-organizing map (SOM) and an integration of logistic regression (LR) and high-order particle filtering (HOPF). In this prognostics system, a baseline SOM is constructed to model the data distribution space of healthy machine under an assumption that predictable fault patterns are not available. Bayesian inference-based probability (BIP) derived from the baseline SOM is developed as a quantification indication of machine health degradation. BIP is capable of offering failure probability for the monitored machine, which has intuitionist explanation related to health degradation state. Based on those historic BIPs, the constructed LR and its modeling noise constitute a high-order Markov process (HOMP) to describe machine health propagation. HOPF is used to solve the HOMP estimation to predict the evolution of the machine health in the form of a probability density function (PDF). An on-line model update scheme is developed to adapt the Markov process changes to machine health dynamics quickly. The experimental results on a bearing test-bed illustrate the potential applications of the proposed system as an effective and simple tool for machine health prognostics.

  11. The atherosclerosis burden score (ABS): a convenient ultrasound-based score of peripheral atherosclerosis for coronary artery disease prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yerly, Patrick; Marquès-Vidal, Pedro; Owlya, Reza; Eeckhout, Eric; Kappenberger, Lukas; Darioli, Roger; Depairon, Michèle

    2015-03-01

    Ultrasonographic detection of subclinical atherosclerosis improves cardiovascular risk stratification, but uncertainty persists about the most discriminative method to apply. In this study, we found that the "atherosclerosis burden score (ABS)", a novel straightforward ultrasonographic score that sums the number of carotid and femoral arterial bifurcations with plaques, significantly outperformed common carotid intima-media thickness, carotid mean/maximal thickness, and carotid/femoral plaque scores for the detection of coronary artery disease (CAD) (receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area under the curve (AUC) = 0.79; P = 0.027 to ABS was also more correlated with CAD extension (R = 0.55; P ABS was weakly correlated with the European Society of Cardiology chart risk categories (R(2) = 0.21), indicating that ABS provided information beyond usual cardiovascular risk factor-based risk stratification. Pending prospective studies on hard cardiovascular endpoints, ABS appears as a promising tool in primary prevention.

  12. Prognostic correlation of cell cycle progression score and Ki-67 as a predictor of aggressiveness, biochemical failure, and mortality in men with high-risk prostate cancer treated with external beam radiation therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, Iván Henríquez; Parada, David; Gallardo, Pablo; Gascón, Marina; Besora, Arnau; Peña, Karla; Riu, Francesc; Arquez Pianetta, Miquel; Abuchaibe, Oscar; Torres Royò, Laura; Arenas, Meritxell

    2017-01-01

    Ki-67 is a proliferation marker in prostate cancer. A prognostic RNA signature was developed to characterize prostate cancer aggressiveness. The aim was to evaluate prognostic correlation of CCP and Ki-67 with biochemical failure (BF), and survival in high-risk prostate cancer patients (pts) treated with radiation therapy (RT). CCP score and Ki-67 were derived retrospectively from pre-treatment paraffin-embedded prostate cancer tissue of 33 men diagnosed from 2002 to 2006. CCP score was calculated as an average expression of 31 CCP genes. Ki-67 was determined by IHC. Single pathologist evaluated all tissues. Factors associated to failure and survival were analyzed. Median CCP score was 0.9 (-0-1 - 2.6). CCP 0: 1 pt; CCP 1: 19 pts; CCP 2: 13 pts. Median Ki-67 was 8.9. Ki-67 cutpoint was 15.08%. BF and DSM were observed in 21% and 9%. Ki-67 ≥ 15% predicted BF (p = 0.043). With a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 10-year BF, OS, DM and DSM for CCP 1 vs. CCP 2 was 76-71% (p = 0.83), 83-73% (p = 0.86), 89-85% (p = 0.84), and 94-78% (p = 0.66). On univariate, high Ki-67 was correlated with BF (p = 0.013), OS (p = 0.023), DM (p = 0.007), and DSM (p = 0.01). On Cox MVA, high Ki-67 had a BF trend (p = 0.063). High CCP score was not correlated with DSM. High Ki-67 significantly predicted outcome and provided prognostic information. CCP score may improve accuracy stratification. We did not provide prognostic correlation of CCP and DSM. It should be validated in a larger cohort of pts.

  13. A scoring system based on artificial neural network for predicting 10-year survival in stage II A colon cancer patients after radical surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Jian-Hong; Fang, Yu-Jing; Li, Cai-Xia; Ou, Qing-Jian; Jiang, Wu; Lu, Shi-Xun; Lu, Zhen-Hai; Li, Pei-Xing; Yun, Jing-Ping; Zhang, Rong-Xin; Pan, Zhi-Zhong; Wan, De Sen

    2016-04-19

    Nearly 20% patients with stage II A colon cancer will develop recurrent disease post-operatively. The present study aims to develop a scoring system based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for predicting 10-year survival outcome. The clinical and molecular data of 117 stage II A colon cancer patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were used for training set and test set; poor pathological grading (score 49), reduced expression of TGFBR2 (score 33), over-expression of TGF-β (score 45), MAPK (score 32), pin1 (score 100), β-catenin in tumor tissue (score 50) and reduced expression of TGF-β in normal mucosa (score 22) were selected as the prognostic risk predictors. According to the developed scoring system, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups, which were supposed with higher, moderate and lower risk levels. As a result, for the 3 subgroups, the 10-year overall survival (OS) rates were 16.7%, 62.9% and 100% (P cancer could help to predict long-term survival and screen out high-risk individuals for more vigorous treatment.

  14. Formation of translational risk score based on correlation coefficients as an alternative to Cox regression models for predicting outcome in patients with NSCLC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ElAidi Tina

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Personalised cancer therapy, such as that used for bronchial carcinoma (BC, requires treatment to be adjusted to the patient's status. Individual risk for progression is estimated from clinical and molecular-biological data using translational score systems. Additional molecular information can improve outcome prediction depending on the marker used and the applied algorithm. Two models, one based on regressions and the other on correlations, were used to investigate the effect of combining various items of prognostic information to produce a comprehensive score. This was carried out using correlation coefficients, with options concerning a more plausible selection of variables for modelling, and this is considered better than classical regression analysis. Methods Clinical data concerning 63 BC patients were used to investigate the expression pattern of five tumour-associated proteins. Significant impact on survival was determined using log-rank tests. Significant variables were integrated into a Cox regression model and a new variable called integrative score of individual risk (ISIR, based on Spearman's correlations, was obtained. Results High tumour stage (TNM was predictive for poor survival, while CD68 and Gas6 protein expression correlated with a favourable outcome. Cox regression model analysis predicted outcome more accurately than using each variable in isolation, and correctly classified 84% of patients as having a clear risk status. Calculation of the integrated score for an individual risk (ISIR, considering tumour size (T, lymph node status (N, metastasis (M, Gas6 and CD68 identified 82% of patients as having a clear risk status. Conclusion Combining protein expression analysis of CD68 and GAS6 with T, N and M, using Cox regression or ISIR, improves prediction. Considering the increasing number of molecular markers, subsequent studies will be required to validate translational algorithms for the prognostic

  15. Spontaneous, resolving S1Q3T3 in pulmonary embolism: A case report and literature review on prognostic value of electrocardiography score for pulmonary embolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cygan, Lukasz D; Weizberg, Moshe; Hahn, Barry

    2016-09-01

    Electrocardiography findings in patients with pulmonary embolism have been investigated since 1935. As medicine has evolved, more effective modalities have surpassed the electrocardiogram in diagnostic utility. Despite the advent of these other modalities, the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism remains elusive and the prognosis is variable amongst each clinical presentation of its pathology. After presenting a case of a resolving S1Q3T3 in subsequent electrocardiogram findings of a patient with pulmonary embolism, this literature review will provide information on a 21-point electrocardiogram scoring system that helps the emergency physician stratify the risk of a patient with an acute presentation of pulmonary embolism. Why should emergency care staff be aware of this? Given the time-sensitive nature of diagnosis and appropriate treatment, Electrocardiogram continues to be a tool in the assessment of patients with a clinical suspicion of pulmonary embolism. Based on the information provided, 21-point electrocardiogram score has been shown to have strong usefulness in assessing prognosis of patients presenting with acute pulmonary embolism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Prognostics for Microgrid Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Abhinav

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics is the science of predicting future performance and potential failures based on targeted condition monitoring. Moving away from the traditional reliability centric view, prognostics aims at detecting and quantifying the time to impending failures. This advance warning provides the opportunity to take actions that can preserve uptime, reduce cost of damage, or extend the life of the component. The talk will focus on the concepts and basics of prognostics from the viewpoint of condition-based systems health management. Differences with other techniques used in systems health management and philosophies of prognostics used in other domains will be shown. Examples relevant to micro grid systems and subsystems will be used to illustrate various types of prediction scenarios and the resources it take to set up a desired prognostic system. Specifically, the implementation results for power storage and power semiconductor components will demonstrate specific solution approaches of prognostics. The role of constituent elements of prognostics, such as model, prediction algorithms, failure threshold, run-to-failure data, requirements and specifications, and post-prognostic reasoning will be explained. A discussion on performance evaluation and performance metrics will conclude the technical discussion followed by general comments on open research problems and challenges in prognostics.

  17. Prognostic value of the monoethylglycinexylidide test in alcoholic cirrhosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhise, Satish B; Dias, Remeth J; Mali, Kailas K

    2007-01-01

    The existing conventional liver function tests (LFTs) are indirect, inferior and have limited prognostic value. Therefore, the monoethylglycinexylidide (MEGX) test, which provides a direct measure of the actual functional state of the liver, is proposed as a real-time liver function test. The objective of this study was to assess the prognostic value of the MEGX test in cirrhosis by comparing it with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), the Mayo end stage liver disease (MELD) and discriminant function (DF) scores. The study was carried out in Satara, India during the period of January 2005 to June 2006 and included 79 adult alcoholic cirrhotic patients. The serum specimen from each patient was analyzed using conventional LFTs and the MEGX test. The prognostic scores-CTP, MELD and DF scores were calculated and statistical analyses was performed. Based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, the MELD score and MEGX60 showed excellent sensitivity and specificity. The comparison of area under ROC curves showed that MELD and MEGX60 had superior prognostic accuracy when compared to other scores. Kaplan-Meier survival curves for corresponding cutoff values clearly differentiated between patients with different survival times. The MEGX test has shown more sensitivity, specificity and accuracy than CTP and DF scores in determining cases with the possibility of three- and six-month survival. Thus, it can be concluded that MEGX test along with MELD, is an effective prognostic tool in the hands of clinicians for predicting short-term survival.

  18. An inflammation-based prognostic index predicts survival advantage after transarterial chemoembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinato, David J; Sharma, Rohini

    2012-08-01

    Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the preferred treatment for unresectable, intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, survival after TACE can be highly variable, suggesting the need for more accurate patient selection to improve therapeutic outcome. We have explored the prognostic ability of the blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), a biomarker of systemic inflammation, as a predictor of survival after TACE. Fifty-four patients with a diagnosis of HCC eligible for TACE were selected. Clinicopathologic variables were collected, including demographics, tumor staging, liver functional reserve, and laboratory variables. Dynamic changes in the NLR before and after TACE were studied as predictors of survival using both a univariate and multivariate Cox regression model. Patients in whom the NLR remained stable or normalized after TACE showed a significant improvement in overall survival of 26 months compared with patients showing a persistently abnormal index (P = 0.006). Other predictors of survival on univariate analysis were Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score (P = 0.05), intrahepatic spread (P = 0.01), tumor diameter > 5 cm (P = 0.02), > 1 TACE (P = 0.01), alpha-fetoprotein ≥ 400 (P = 0.002), and radiologic response to TACE (P analysis. Changes in alpha-fetoprotein after treatment did not predict survival. Patients with a persistently increased NLR have a worse outcome after TACE. NLR is a simple and universally available stratifying biomarker that can help identify patients with a significant survival advantage after TACE. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Impact of renal dysfunction on the prognostic value of the TIMI risk score in patients with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Go, Jason; Narmi, Ann; Sype, John; Mooss, Aryan; Hilleman, Daniel E

    2011-01-01

    The thrombolysis-in-myocardial-infarction risk score (TRS) is a validated risk-assessment tool based on randomized clinical trials. Its applicability to an unselected group of patients seen in general clinical practice may be limited as renal dysfunction was an exclusion criteria in the original trials upon which the TRS was determined. Consecutive patients with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome were stratified based on renal function. Normal renal function was defined as a creatinine clearance (CrCl) of more than 60 ml/min, moderate renal dysfunction was defined as a CrCl of at least 30 ml/min but 60 ml/min or less, and severe renal dysfunction was defined as a CrCl of less than 30 ml/min. A TRS was calculated using the original seven criteria (TRS-7) which did not consider renal function. A second TRS was calculated using the original seven criteria plus the addition of renal dysfunction if the CrCl was 60 ml/min or less (TRS-8 ≤ 60). A third TRS was calculated using the original seven criteria plus renal dysfunction if the CrCl was less than 30 ml/min (TRS-80.05). At a calculated TRS of 6 or 7, the TRS-8scores of 6 or more. When considered in the context of clinical practice, the use of the TRS-8 ≤ 60 and TRS-8<30 rather than the TRS-7 would not be expected to substantially change the management strategy for patients presenting with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome.

  20. A versão simplificada do Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System e seu valor prognóstico La versión simplificada del Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System y su valor pronóstico The simplified version of Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System and its prognostic value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cláudia Moreira da Silva

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available O estudo avalia a capacidade do Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System (TISS-28 de discriminar pacientes internados em UTI, prováveis de morrer daqueles possíveis de sobreviver e estabelecer a pontuação limiar para alta probabilidade de morte. Os resultados, obtidos da amostra de 200 pacientes internados em 14 UTIs do Município de São Paulo, mostraram que o TISS-28 apresentou associação com mortalidade (p=0,0001. O ponto de corte estabelecido foi 21. Encontrou-se que 80,88% dos que morreram tinham pontuação do TISS-28 maior ou igual, e 68,18% dos sobreviventes tinham pontuação menor que 21. Além disso, quanto ao valor prognóstico do TISS-28, constatou-se acurácia de 0,72.El estudio evalúa la capacidad del Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System (TISS-28 para discriminar pacientes internados en UCI, probables de morir de aquellos posibles de sobrevivir y establecer la puntuación límite para la alta probabilidad de muerte. Los resultados, obtenidos de la muestra de 200 pacientes internados en 14 UCIs del Municipio de São Paulo, mostraron que el TISS-28 presentó asociación con la mortalidad (p=0,0001. El punto de corte establecido fue 21. Se encontró que el 80.88% de los que murieron tenían puntuación del TISS-28 mayor o igual, y 68.18% de los sobrevivientes tenían puntuación menor que 21. Además de eso, en cuanto al valor pronóstico del TISS-28, se constató exactitud de 0.72.The study evaluates the competence of the "TISS-28" to distinguish inpatients at the ICU, between the ones likely to die from the ones likely to survive and to establish a threshold score for high likelihood to death. The findings obtained by the sample of 200 inpatients at 14 ICUs in Sao Paulo County showed that the TISS-28 presented association with mortality (p=0.0001. The cutting score established was 21. It was found that 80.88% of those who died had the TISS-28 score similar or higher and 68.18% of survivors had the score below 21

  1. Risk stratification and prognostic value of grace and timi risk scores for female patients with non-st segment elevation acute coronary syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hang; Xue, Hao; Wang, Haotian; Chen, Yundai; Zhou, Shanshan; Tian, Feng; Hu, Shunying; Wang, Jing; Yang, Junjie; Zhang, Tao

    2015-01-01

    To investigate the value of Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) and Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores for risk stratification and prognosis in female patients with non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). Non-elderly (TIMI scores. Patients were followed up for 1 year to record the mortality and incidence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Differences in mortality and MACE incidence between the two scoring systems were compared by the area under the ROC curve. The area under ROC curve corresponding to the mortality and MACE incidence in any period by the GRACE scoring system was significantly larger than the TIMI scoring system in the elderly patients (PTIMI scores were greater than 1 (PTIMI were adoptable in clinical risk stratification and prognosis of female patients with NSTE-ACS at different age groups. GRACE showed better accuracy than the TIMI scores.

  2. Distribution of model-based multipoint heterogeneity lod scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Chao; Morris, Nathan; Xing, Guan

    2010-12-01

    The distribution of two-point heterogeneity lod scores (HLOD) has been intensively investigated because the conventional χ(2) approximation to the likelihood ratio test is not directly applicable. However, there was no study investigating th e distribution of the multipoint HLOD despite its wide application. Here we want to point out that, compared with the two-point HLOD, the multipoint HLOD essentially tests for homogeneity given linkage and follows a relatively simple limiting distribution ½χ²₀+ ½χ²₁, which can be obtained by established statistical theory. We further examine the theoretical result by simulation studies. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  3. The prognostic importance of miR-21 in stage II colon cancer: a population-based study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjaer-Frifeldt, S.; Hansen, T. F.; Nielsen, B. S.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Despite several years of research and attempts to develop prognostic models a considerable fraction of stage II colon cancer patients will experience relapse within few years from their operation. The aim of the present study was to investigate the prognostic importance of miRNA-21 (mi......R-21), quantified by in situ hybridisation, in a unique, large population-based cohort. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study included 764 patients diagnosed with stage II colon cancer in Denmark in the year 2003. One section from a representative paraffin-embedded tumour tissue specimen from each patient...

  4. Validation, revision and extension of the mantle cell lymphoma international prognostic index in a population-based setting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.A.M. van de Schans (Saskia); M.L.G. Janssen-Heijnen (Maryska); M.R. Nijzie (Marten); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); D.J. van Spronsen (Dick Johan)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractBackground The aim of this study was to validate the Mantle Cell Lymphoma International Prognostic Index in a population-based cohort and to study the relevance of its revisions. Design and Methods We analyzed data from 178 unselected patients with stage III or IV mantle cell lymphoma,

  5. Predicting stabilizing treatment outcomes for complex posttraumatic stress disorder and dissociative identity disorder: an expertise-based prognostic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baars, E.W.; van der Hart, O.; Nijenhuis, E.R.S.; Chu, J.A.; Glas, G.; Draaijer, N.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an expertise-based prognostic model for the treatment of complex posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and dissociative identity disorder (DID).We developed a survey in 2 rounds: In the first round we surveyed 42 experienced therapists (22 DID and 20 complex

  6. Towards A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gautam Biswas

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model-driven methodology for predict- ing the remaining useful life of electrolytic capacitors. This methodology adopts a Kalman filter approach in conjunction with an empirical state-based degradation model to predict the degradation of capacitor parameters through the life of the capacitor. Electrolytic capacitors are important components of systems that range from power supplies on critical avion- ics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their comparatively low reliability and given their critical role in the system, they are good candidates for component level prognostics and health management. Prognostics provides a way to assess remain- ing useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. This paper proposes and empirical degradation model and discusses experimental results for an accelerated aging test performed on a set of identical capacitors subjected to electrical stress. The data forms the basis for developing the Kalman-filter based remaining life prediction algorithm.

  7. Z-Score-Based Modularity for Community Detection in Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyauchi, Atsushi; Kawase, Yasushi

    2016-01-01

    Identifying community structure in networks is an issue of particular interest in network science. The modularity introduced by Newman and Girvan is the most popular quality function for community detection in networks. In this study, we identify a problem in the concept of modularity and suggest a solution to overcome this problem. Specifically, we obtain a new quality function for community detection. We refer to the function as Z-modularity because it measures the Z-score of a given partition with respect to the fraction of the number of edges within communities. Our theoretical analysis shows that Z-modularity mitigates the resolution limit of the original modularity in certain cases. Computational experiments using both artificial networks and well-known real-world networks demonstrate the validity and reliability of the proposed quality function.

  8. Standardized computer-based organized reporting of EEG SCORE - Second version

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniczky, Sándor; Aurlien, Harald; Brøgger, Jan C

    2017-01-01

    in the second, revised version of SCORE (Standardized Computer-based Organized Reporting of EEG), which is presented in this paper. The revised terminology was implemented in a software package (SCORE EEG), which was tested in clinical practice on 12,160 EEG recordings. Standardized terms implemented in SCORE...

  9. Prognostic models based on patient snapshots and time windows: Predicting disease progression to assisted ventilation in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carreiro, André V; Amaral, Pedro M T; Pinto, Susana; Tomás, Pedro; de Carvalho, Mamede; Madeira, Sara C

    2015-12-01

    Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a devastating disease and the most common neurodegenerative disorder of young adults. ALS patients present a rapidly progressive motor weakness. This usually leads to death in a few years by respiratory failure. The correct prediction of respiratory insufficiency is thus key for patient management. In this context, we propose an innovative approach for prognostic prediction based on patient snapshots and time windows. We first cluster temporally-related tests to obtain snapshots of the patient's condition at a given time (patient snapshots). Then we use the snapshots to predict the probability of an ALS patient to require assisted ventilation after k days from the time of clinical evaluation (time window). This probability is based on the patient's current condition, evaluated using clinical features, including functional impairment assessments and a complete set of respiratory tests. The prognostic models include three temporal windows allowing to perform short, medium and long term prognosis regarding progression to assisted ventilation. Experimental results show an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) in the test set of approximately 79% for time windows of 90, 180 and 365 days. Creating patient snapshots using hierarchical clustering with constraints outperforms the state of the art, and the proposed prognostic model becomes the first non population-based approach for prognostic prediction in ALS. The results are promising and should enhance the current clinical practice, largely supported by non-standardized tests and clinicians' experience. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Short- and long-term prognostic value of the TIMI risk score after primary percutaneous coronary intervention for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damman, Peter; Woudstra, Pier; Kuijt, Wichert J.; Kikkert, Wouter J.; van de Hoef, Tim P.; Grundeken, Maik J.; Harskamp, Ralf E.; Henriques, Jose P. S.; Piek, Jan J.; Tijssen, Jan G. P.; de Winter, Robbert J.

    2013-01-01

    We investigated the short- and long-term predictive value of the TIMI risk score regarding mortality for patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Data on the long-term predictive value of the TIMI risk score is sparse. We

  11. Multimodal biometric authentication based on score level fusion using support vector machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, F.; Han, J.

    2009-03-01

    Fusion of multiple biometrics for human authentication performance improvement has received considerable attention. This paper presents a novel multimodal biometric authentication method integrating face and iris based on score level fusion. For score level fusion, support vector machine (SVM) based fusion rule is applied to combine two matching scores, respectively from Laplacianface based face verifier and phase information based iris verifier, to generate a single scalar score which is used to make the final decision. Experimental results show that the performance of the proposed method can bring obvious improvement comparing to the unimodal biometric identification methods and the previous fused face-iris methods.

  12. A New Multivariate Approach for Prognostics Based on Extreme Learning Machine and Fuzzy Clustering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javed, Kamran; Gouriveau, Rafael; Zerhouni, Noureddine

    2015-12-01

    Prognostics is a core process of prognostics and health management (PHM) discipline, that estimates the remaining useful life (RUL) of a degrading machinery to optimize its service delivery potential. However, machinery operates in a dynamic environment and the acquired condition monitoring data are usually noisy and subject to a high level of uncertainty/unpredictability, which complicates prognostics. The complexity further increases, when there is absence of prior knowledge about ground truth (or failure definition). For such issues, data-driven prognostics can be a valuable solution without deep understanding of system physics. This paper contributes a new data-driven prognostics approach namely, an "enhanced multivariate degradation modeling," which enables modeling degrading states of machinery without assuming a homogeneous pattern. In brief, a predictability scheme is introduced to reduce the dimensionality of the data. Following that, the proposed prognostics model is achieved by integrating two new algorithms namely, the summation wavelet-extreme learning machine and subtractive-maximum entropy fuzzy clustering to show evolution of machine degradation by simultaneous predictions and discrete state estimation. The prognostics model is equipped with a dynamic failure threshold assignment procedure to estimate RUL in a realistic manner. To validate the proposition, a case study is performed on turbofan engines data from PHM challenge 2008 (NASA), and results are compared with recent publications.

  13. Prognostic value of graph theory-based tissue architecture analysis in carcinomas of the tongue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudbø, J; Bankfalvi, A; Bryne, M; Marcelpoil, R; Boysen, M; Piffko, J; Hemmer, J; Kraft, K; Reith, A

    2000-12-01

    Several studies on oral squamous cell carcinomas (OSCC) suggest that the clinical value of traditional histologic grading is limited both by poor reproducibility and by low prognostic impact. However, the prognostic potential of a strictly quantitative and highly reproducible assessment of the tissue architecture in OSCC has not been evaluated. Using image analysis, in 193 cases of T1-2 (Stage I-II) OSCC we retrospectively investigated the prognostic impact of two graph theory-derived structural features: the average Delaunay Edge Length (DEL_av) and the average homogeneity of the Ulam Tree (ELH_av). Both structural features were derived from subgraphs of the Voronoi Diagram. The geometric centers of the cell nuclei were computed, generating a two-dimensional swarm of point-like seeds from which graphs could be constructed. The impact on survival of the computed values of ELH_av and DEL_av was estimated by the method of Kaplan and Meier, with relapse-free survival and overall survival as end-points. The prognostic values of DEL_av and ELH_av as computed for the invasive front, the superficial part of the carcinoma, the total carcinoma, and the normal-appearing oral mucosa were compared. For DEL_av, significant prognostic information was found in the invasive front (p < 0.001). No significant prognostic information was found in superficial part of the carcinoma (p = 0.34), in the carcinoma as a whole (p = 0.35), or in the normal-appearing mucosa (p = 0.27). For ELH_av, significant prognostic information was found in the invasive front (p = 0.01) and, surprisingly, in putatively normal mucosa (p = 0.03). No significant prognostic information was found in superficial parts of the carcinoma (p = 0.34) or in the total carcinoma (p = 0.11). In conclusion, strictly quantitative assessment of tissue architecture in the invasive front of OSCC yields highly prognostic information.

  14. Prognostic Value of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Score in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Patients With Left Ventricular Dysfunction (from the EPHESUS Trial).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popovic, Batric; Girerd, Nicolas; Rossignol, Patrick; Agrinier, Nelly; Camenzind, Edoardo; Fay, Renaud; Pitt, Bertram; Zannad, Faiez

    2016-11-15

    The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score remains a robust prediction tool for short-term and midterm outcome in the patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). However, the validity of this risk score in patients with STEMI with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) remains unclear. A total of 2,854 patients with STEMI with early coronary revascularization participating in the randomized EPHESUS (Epleronone Post-Acute Myocardial Infarction Heart Failure Efficacy and Survival Study) trial were analyzed. TIMI risk score was calculated at baseline, and its predictive value was evaluated using C-indexes from Cox models. The increase in reclassification of other variables in addition to TIMI score was assessed using the net reclassification index. TIMI risk score had a poor predictive accuracy for all-cause mortality (C-index values at 30 days and 1 year ≤0.67) and recurrent myocardial infarction (MI; C-index values ≤0.60). Among TIMI score items, diabetes/hypertension/angina, heart rate >100 beats/min, and systolic blood pressure TIMI score items, aside from age, were significantly associated with MI recurrence. Using a constructed predictive model, lower LVEF, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and previous MI were significantly associated with all-cause mortality. The predictive accuracy of this model, which included LVEF and eGFR, was fair for both 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality (C-index values ranging from 0.71 to 0.75). In conclusion, TIMI risk score demonstrates poor discrimination in predicting mortality or recurrent MI in patients with STEMI with reduced LVEF. LVEF and eGFR are major factors that should not be ignored by predictive risk scores in this population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Clinico-epidemiological study of caustic substance ingestion accidents in children in Anatolia: the DROOL score as a new prognostic tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uygun, I; Aydogdu, B; Okur, M H; Arayici, Y; Celik, Y; Ozturk, H; Otcu, S

    2012-01-01

    To examine the clinico-epidemiological details of paediatric caustic substance ingestion (CSI) accidents in Turkey. To present the new DROOL Score (DS), which the authors developed based on the severity and duration of initial signs and symptoms (ISSs) to predict oesophageal stricture (OS) without endoscopy, and to present our management protocol based on immediate feeding, early detection, and oesophageal balloon dilatation (OBD) of OS with no barium study. We prospectively reviewed the records of 202 children admitted with a history of CSI within 48 hours. Patient, parent, caustic substance, and accident characteristics were noted in detail. Patients were fed as soon as they could swallow saliva. Diagnoses of OS were made earlier via timely endoscopy (mean, 10-14 days after CSI) for patients with persistent dysphagia and OBD was started earlier. ISSs and DSs were analyzed. OS treatment results were compared between early (10-14 days) and late (> or = 21 days) dilatation patients who were referred for OBD by other hospitals. In total, 144 (71%) incidents occurred within the parents' home and 44 (22%) occurred at another individual's home. The caustic substances were frequently sold in non-original containers (68.8%). Most patients' parents had low incomes and were poorly educated. Ninety-six children had no ISSs, whereas 106 patients had ISSs. Seventeen symptomatic patients had persistent dysphagia after 10-14 days. Timely endoscopy was performed within 10-14 days for these patients only, and OS was diagnosed and successfully treated. DSs were significantly lower in patients with OS than those without (p or = 21 days). OBD can then also be started earlier in these patients.

  16. Do physicians correctly calculate thromboembolic risk scores? A comparison of concordance between manual and computer-based calculation of CHADS2 and CHA2 DS2 -VASc scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteve-Pastor, M A; Marín, F; Bertomeu-Martinez, V; Roldán-Rabadán, I; Cequier-Fillat, Á; Badimon, L; Muñiz-García, J; Valdés, M; Anguita-Sánchez, M

    2016-05-01

    Clinical risk scores, CHADS2 and CHA2 DS2 -VASc scores, are the established tools for assessing stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The aim of this study is to assess concordance between manual and computer-based calculation of CHADS2 and CHA2 DS2 -VASc scores, as well as to analyse the patient categories using CHADS2 and the potential improvement on stroke risk stratification with CHA2 DS2 -VASc score. We linked data from Atrial Fibrillation Spanish registry FANTASIIA. Between June 2013 and March 2014, 1318 consecutive outpatients were recruited. We explore the concordance between manual scoring and computer-based calculation. We compare the distribution of embolic risk of patients using both CHADS2 and CHA2 DS2 -VASc scores The mean age was 73.8 ± 9.4 years, and 758 (57.5%) were male. For CHADS2 score, concordance between manual scoring and computer-based calculation was 92.5%, whereas for CHA2 DS2 -VASc score was 96.4%. In CHADS2 score, 6.37% of patients with AF changed indication on antithrombotic therapy (3.49% of patients with no treatment changed to need antithrombotic treatment and 2.88% of patients otherwise). Using CHA2 DS2 -VASc score, only 0.45% of patients with AF needed to change in the recommendation of antithrombotic therapy. We have found a strong concordance between manual and computer-based score calculation of both CHADS2 and CHA2 DS2 -VASc risk scores with minimal changes in anticoagulation recommendations. The use of CHA2 DS2 -VASc score significantly improves classification of AF patients at low and intermediate risk of stroke into higher grade of thromboembolic score. Moreover, CHA2 DS2 -VASc score could identify 'truly low risk' patients compared with CHADS2 score. © 2016 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

  17. Development and Validation of a Lifecycle-based Prognostics Architecture with Test Bed Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hines, J. Wesley [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Upadhyaya, Belle [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Sharp, Michael [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jeffries, Brien [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Nam, Alan [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Strong, Eric [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Tong, Matthew [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Welz, Zachary [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Barbieri, Federico [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Langford, Seth [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Meinweiser, Gregory [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Weeks, Matthew [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2014-11-06

    On-line monitoring and tracking of nuclear plant system and component degradation is being investigated as a method for improving the safety, reliability, and maintainability of aging nuclear power plants. Accurate prediction of the current degradation state of system components and structures is important for accurate estimates of their remaining useful life (RUL). The correct quantification and propagation of both the measurement uncertainty and model uncertainty is necessary for quantifying the uncertainty of the RUL prediction. This research project developed and validated methods to perform RUL estimation throughout the lifecycle of plant components. Prognostic methods should seamlessly operate from beginning of component life (BOL) to end of component life (EOL). We term this "Lifecycle Prognostics." When a component is put into use, the only information available may be past failure times of similar components used in similar conditions, and the predicted failure distribution can be estimated with reliability methods such as Weibull Analysis (Type I Prognostics). As the component operates, it begins to degrade and consume its available life. This life consumption may be a function of system stresses, and the failure distribution should be updated to account for the system operational stress levels (Type II Prognostics). When degradation becomes apparent, this information can be used to again improve the RUL estimate (Type III Prognostics). This research focused on developing prognostics algorithms for the three types of prognostics, developing uncertainty quantification methods for each of the algorithms, and, most importantly, developing a framework using Bayesian methods to transition between prognostic model types and update failure distribution estimates as new information becomes available. The developed methods were then validated on a range of accelerated degradation test beds. The ultimate goal of prognostics is to provide an accurate assessment for

  18. Validation, revision and extension of the Mantle Cell Lymphoma International Prognostic Index in a population-based setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Schans, Saskia A M; Janssen-Heijnen, Maryska L G; Nijziel, Marten R; Steyerberg, Ewout W; van Spronsen, Dick Johan

    2010-09-01

    The aim of this study was to validate the Mantle Cell Lymphoma International Prognostic Index in a population-based cohort and to study the relevance of its revisions. We analyzed data from 178 unselected patients with stage III or IV mantle cell lymphoma, registered between 1994 and 2006 in the Eindhoven Cancer Registry. Follow-up was completed up to January 1(st), 2008. Multiple imputations for missing covariates were used. Validity was assessed by comparing observed survival in our cohort with predicted survival according to the original Mantle cell lymphoma International Prognostic Index. A revised model was constructed with Cox regression analysis. Discrimination was assessed by a concordance statistic ('c'). The original Mantle cell lymphoma International Prognostic Index could stratify our cohort into three distinct risk groups based on Eastern Cooperative Group performance status, white blood cell count, lactate dehydrogenase level, and age, with the discrimination being nearly as good as in the original cohort (c 0.65 versus 0.63). A modified model including performance status in five categories (0/1/2/3/4) instead of two (0-1/2-4), the presence of B-symptoms (yes/no) and sex (male/female) in addition to the original variables resulted in a better prognostic index (c 0.75). The Mantle cell lymphoma International Prognostic Index is a valid tool for risk stratification, comparison of prognosis, and treatment decisions in an unselected Dutch population-based setting. Although the index can be significantly improved, external validation on an independent data set is warranted before broad application of the modified instrument could be recommended.

  19. Association of a Dietary Score with Incident Type 2 Diabetes: The Dietary-Based Diabetes-Risk Score (DDS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ligia J Dominguez

    Full Text Available Strong evidence supports that dietary modifications may decrease incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM. Numerous diabetes risk models/scores have been developed, but most do not rely specifically on dietary variables or do not fully capture the overall dietary pattern. We prospectively assessed the association of a dietary-based diabetes-risk score (DDS, which integrates optimal food patterns, with the risk of developing T2DM in the SUN ("Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra" longitudinal study.We assessed 17,292 participants initially free of diabetes, followed-up for a mean of 9.2 years. A validated 136-item FFQ was administered at baseline. Taking into account previous literature, the DDS positively weighted vegetables, fruit, whole cereals, nuts, coffee, low-fat dairy, fiber, PUFA, and alcohol in moderate amounts; while it negatively weighted red meat, processed meats and sugar-sweetened beverages. Energy-adjusted quintiles of each item (with exception of moderate alcohol consumption that received either 0 or 5 points were used to build the DDS (maximum: 60 points. Incident T2DM was confirmed through additional detailed questionnaires and review of medical records of participants. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for socio-demographic and anthropometric parameters, health-related habits, and clinical variables to estimate hazard ratios (HR of T2DM.We observed 143 T2DM confirmed cases during follow-up. Better baseline conformity with the DDS was associated with lower incidence of T2DM (multivariable-adjusted HR for intermediate (25-39 points vs. low (11-24 category 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI 0.21, 0.89]; and for high (40-60 vs. low category 0.32 [95% CI: 0.14, 0.69]; p for linear trend: 0.019.The DDS, a simple score exclusively based on dietary components, showed a strong inverse association with incident T2DM. This score may be applicable in clinical practice to improve dietary habits of subjects at high risk of T2DM

  20. GPU Accelerated Prognostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorospe, George E., Jr.; Daigle, Matthew J.; Sankararaman, Shankar; Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Ng, Eley

    2017-01-01

    Prognostic methods enable operators and maintainers to predict the future performance for critical systems. However, these methods can be computationally expensive and may need to be performed each time new information about the system becomes available. In light of these computational requirements, we have investigated the application of graphics processing units (GPUs) as a computational platform for real-time prognostics. Recent advances in GPU technology have reduced cost and increased the computational capability of these highly parallel processing units, making them more attractive for the deployment of prognostic software. We present a survey of model-based prognostic algorithms with considerations for leveraging the parallel architecture of the GPU and a case study of GPU-accelerated battery prognostics with computational performance results.

  1. Main clinical factors influencing early mortality in a cohort of patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis, and evaluation trough ROC curves of different prognostic scoring systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fátima Higuera-de la Tijera

    2014-10-01

    Conclusions: The development of HE is the main factor associated to early mortality. Coexistence of cirrhosis is a factor that worsen the prognosis. Lille score is the most accurate for predict early mortality.

  2. The prognostic utility of the SYNTAX score on 1-year outcomes after revascularization with zotarolimus- and everolimus-eluting stents: a substudy of the RESOLUTE All Comers Trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garg, Scot; Serruys, Patrick W; Silber, Sigmund

    2011-01-01

    This study assessed the ability of the SYNTAX score (SXscore) to stratify risk in patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using zotarolimus-eluting or everolimus-eluting stents....

  3. Prognostic significance of Gleason score 7 (3+4 and Gleason score 7 (4+3 in prostatic adenocarcinoma in relation to clinical stage, androgen tissue status and degree of neuroendocrine differentiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mijović M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Prognosis and choice of treatment of adenocarcinoma of the prostate (ADCP directly depend on the numerous of predictive factors, among which the most important are summary histological tumor grade (Gleason score, which is the sum of the first and second dominant histological grade and clinical stage. According to recent research these factors include androgen tissue status and degree of neuroendocrine differentiation. The importance of the first and second dominant histological grade becomes particularly important in ADCP Gleason score 7. Tumors with worse prognosis considered to be ADCP of higher Gleason score, the advanced clinical stage, androgen independent tumors and tumors that show a higher degree of neuroendocrine differentiation. The aim of the study was to determine the predictive significance of ADCP Gleason score 7 (3+4 and ADCP Gleason score 7 (4+3 in relation to clinical stage, androgen tissue status and degree of focal neuroendocrine differentiation. The study included 33 ADCP of Gleason score 7,26 (78.79% ADCP 7 (3+4 and 7 (21.21% ADCP 7 (4+3. All tumors are most often diagnosed with stage D2, when there are already distant metastases. ADCP of Gleason score 7 (4+3 were diagnosed more often at this stage, among them there are more androgen independent tumors and they show a greater degree of focal neuroendocrine differentiation. All the results are in accordance with data from the literature suggesting that ADCP of Gleason score 7 (4+3 have a worse prognosis than ADCP of Gleason score 7 (3 +4.

  4. Maintenance-based prognostics of nuclear plant equipment for long-term operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zachary Welz

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available While industry understands the importance of keeping equipment operational and well maintained, the importance of tracking maintenance information in reliability models is often overlooked. Prognostic models can be used to predict the failure times of critical equipment, but more often than not, these models assume that all maintenance actions are the same or do not consider maintenance at all. This study investigates the influence of integrating maintenance information on prognostic model prediction accuracy. By incorporating maintenance information to develop maintenance-dependent prognostic models, prediction accuracy was improved by more than 40% compared with traditional maintenance-independent models. This study acts as a proof of concept, showing the importance of utilizing maintenance information in modern prognostics for industrial equipment.

  5. Maintenance-based prognostics of nuclear plant equipment for long-term operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Welz, Zachary; Coble, Jamie; Upadhyaya, Belle; Hines, Wes [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (United States)

    2017-08-15

    While industry understands the importance of keeping equipment operational and well maintained, the importance of tracking maintenance information in reliability models is often overlooked. Prognostic models can be used to predict the failure times of critical equipment, but more often than not, these models assume that all maintenance actions are the same or do not consider maintenance at all. This study investigates the influence of integrating maintenance information on prognostic model prediction accuracy. By incorporating maintenance information to develop maintenance-dependent prognostic models, prediction accuracy was improved by more than 40% compared with traditional maintenance-independent models. This study acts as a proof of concept, showing the importance of utilizing maintenance information in modern prognostics for industrial equipment.

  6. An Energy-Based Prognostic Framework to Predict Fatigue Damage Evolution in Composites

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In this work, a prognostics framework to predict the evolution of damage in fiber-reinforced composites materials under fatigue loads is proposed. The assessment of...

  7. Predicting stabilizing treatment outcomes for complex posttraumatic stress disorder and dissociative identity disorder: an expertise-based prognostic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baars, Erik W; van der Hart, Onno; Nijenhuis, Ellert R S; Chu, James A; Glas, Gerrit; Draijer, Nel

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an expertise-based prognostic model for the treatment of complex posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and dissociative identity disorder (DID). We developed a survey in 2 rounds: In the first round we surveyed 42 experienced therapists (22 DID and 20 complex PTSD therapists), and in the second round we surveyed a subset of 22 of the 42 therapists (13 DID and 9 complex PTSD therapists). First, we drew on therapists' knowledge of prognostic factors for stabilization-oriented treatment of complex PTSD and DID. Second, therapists prioritized a list of prognostic factors by estimating the size of each variable's prognostic effect; we clustered these factors according to content and named the clusters. Next, concept mapping methodology and statistical analyses (including principal components analyses) were used to transform individual judgments into weighted group judgments for clusters of items. A prognostic model, based on consensually determined estimates of effect sizes, of 8 clusters containing 51 factors for both complex PTSD and DID was formed. It includes the clusters lack of motivation, lack of healthy relationships, lack of healthy therapeutic relationships, lack of other internal and external resources, serious Axis I comorbidity, serious Axis II comorbidity, poor attachment, and self-destruction. In addition, a set of 5 DID-specific items was constructed. The model is supportive of the current phase-oriented treatment model, emphasizing the strengthening of the therapeutic relationship and the patient's resources in the initial stabilization phase. Further research is needed to test the model's statistical and clinical validity.

  8. Tumor Budding in Colorectal Carcinoma: Confirmation of Prognostic Significance and Histologic Cutoff in a Population-based Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Rondell P; Vierkant, Robert A; Tillmans, Lori S; Wang, Alice H; Laird, Peter W; Weisenberger, Daniel J; Lynch, Charles F; French, Amy J; Slager, Susan L; Raissian, Yassaman; Garcia, Joaquin J; Kerr, Sarah E; Lee, Hee Eun; Thibodeau, Stephen N; Cerhan, James R; Limburg, Paul J; Smyrk, Thomas C

    2015-10-01

    Tumor budding in colorectal carcinoma has been associated with poor outcome in multiple studies, but the absence of an established histologic cutoff for "high" tumor budding, heterogeneity in study populations, and varying methods for assessing tumor budding have hindered widespread incorporation of this parameter in clinical reports. We used an established scoring system in a population-based cohort to determine a histologic cutoff for "high" tumor budding and confirm its prognostic significance. We retrieved hematoxylin and eosin-stained sections from 553 incident colorectal carcinoma cases. Each case was previously characterized for select molecular alterations and survival data. Interobserver agreement was assessed between 2 gastrointestinal pathologists and a group of 4 general surgical pathologists. High budding (≥ 10 tumor buds in a ×20 objective field) was present in 32% of cases, low budding in 46%, and no budding in 22%. High tumor budding was associated with advanced pathologic stage (P 2 times risk of cancer-specific death (hazard ratio = 2.57 [1.27, 5.19]). After multivariate adjustment, by penalized smoothing splines, we found increasing tumor bud counts from 5 upward to be associated with an increasingly shortened cancer-specific survival. By this method, a tumor bud count of 10 corresponded to approximately 2.5 times risk of cancer-specific death. The interobserver agreement was good with weighted κ of 0.70 for 2 gastrointestinal pathologists over 121 random cases and 0.72 between all 6 pathologists for 20 random cases. Using an established method to assess budding on routine histologic stains, we have shown that a cutoff of 10 for high tumor budding is independently associated with a significantly worse prognosis. The reproducibility data provide support for the routine widespread implementation of tumor budding in clinical reports.

  9. An interaction-motif-based scoring function for protein-ligand docking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xie Zhong-Ru

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A good scoring function is essential for molecular docking computations. In conventional scoring functions, energy terms modeling pairwise interactions are cumulatively summed, and the best docking solution is selected. Here, we propose to transform protein-ligand interactions into three-dimensional geometric networks, from which recurring network substructures, or network motifs, are selected and used to provide probability-ranked interaction templates with which to score docking solutions. Results A novel scoring function for protein-ligand docking, MotifScore, was developed. It is non-energy-based, and docking is, instead, scored by counting the occurrences of motifs of protein-ligand interaction networks constructed using structures of protein-ligand complexes. MotifScore has been tested on a benchmark set established by others to assess its ability to identify near-native complex conformations among a set of decoys. In this benchmark test, 84% of the highest-scored docking conformations had root-mean-square deviations (rmsds below 2.0 Å from the native conformation, which is comparable with the best of several energy-based docking scoring functions. Many of the top motifs, which comprise a multitude of chemical groups that interact simultaneously and make a highly significant contribution to MotifScore, capture recurrent interacting patterns beyond pairwise interactions. Conclusions While providing quite good docking scores, MotifScore is quite different from conventional energy-based functions. MotifScore thus represents a new, network-based approach for exploring problems associated with molecular docking.

  10. The Prognostic Scoring System Establishment and Validation for Chronic Atrial Fibrillation Patients Receiving Modified Cox-Maze IV and Concomitant Cardiac Surgery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng-Chun Tsai

    Full Text Available Traditional Cox maze III is the gold standard for treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF. Because of its invasiveness, it has been replaced by a simplified procedure involving radiofrequency ablation of modified Cox maze IV. Although the modified Cox maze IV has the advantages of simplicity and less morbidity, a lower rate of sinus rhythm conversion has been reported. We try to establish a scoring system to predict the outcome of this procedure.The derivation group consisted of 287 patients with structural heart disease and chronic AF who underwent cardiac surgery and modified Cox-maze IV procedure between August 2005 and March 2013. Demographics, clinical and laboratory variables were retrospectively collected as sinus conversional predictors. Overall sinus conversion rate was 75.8%. The parameters of the Soft Markers Scoring system included AF duration, preoperative left atrial (LA size, rheumatic pathology and postoperative LA remodeling. We compared 80 patients from another hospital between January 2004 and December 2011 as a validation group to evaluate the power of the scoring system. Soft Markers Score indicated a good discriminative power by using the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC: 0.759 ± 0.032. The score was further divided into three groups: low (0-2, intermediate (3-5, and high (6-10, with predicted sinus conversion rates of 92.4%, 74.2%, and 47.8%, respectively.In patients with chronic AF receiving modified Cox-maze IV procedure, the Soft Markers Score demonstrated good discriminative power of predicting sinus recovery in our patients and applied well to the other validation populations.

  11. The high-density lipoprotein-adjusted SCORE model worsens SCORE-based risk classification in a contemporary population of 30,824 Europeans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Martin B; Afzal, Shoaib; Nordestgaard, Børge G

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: Recent European guidelines recommend to include high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol in risk assessment for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), using a SCORE-based risk model (SCORE-HDL). We compared the predictive performance of SCORE-HDL with SCORE in an independent......, contemporary, 'low-risk' European population, focusing on ability to identify those in need of intensified CVD prevention. METHODS AND RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2008, 46,092 individuals without CVD, diabetes, or statin use were enrolled in the Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS). During a mean of 6.......8 years of follow-up, 339 individuals died of CVD. In the SCORE target population (age 40-65; n = 30,824), fewer individuals were at baseline categorized as high risk (≥5% 10-year risk of fatal CVD) using SCORE-HDL compared with SCORE (10 vs. 17% in men, 1 vs. 3% in women). SCORE-HDL did not improve...

  12. Pattern and prognostic factor of ocular injuries in southwest Ethiopia: a hospital based prospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sisay Bekele

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To determine the pattern, severity, and prognostic factors of ocular injuries in the southwest Ethiopia.METHODS:A prospective hospital based study was done on all patients presented with ocular injury to Jimma University Specialized Hospital from Apr. to Sep. 2009. Each patient underwent a detailed interview and a standard comprehensive ocular examination. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 13 and PRESULTS:The overall prevalence of ocular injury was 3.03%. Nearly 99% of ocular injuries were mechanical. The majority of the ocular injuries(53.2%were work-related and none of these patients had eye protection at the time of injury. Out of 170 globe injuries, 57.6% were closed globe injury and 42.4% were open globe injuries. Closed globe injuries were less severe and had significantly better visual outcome than open globe injuries(PPCONCLUSION: Most ocular injuries occurred in the workplace,and a significantly larger proportion of patients with ocular injury developed monocular blindness. For the prevention of serious injuries, eye health education and safety strategies should be applied both at home and work place.

  13. High accuracy operon prediction method based on STRING database scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taboada, Blanca; Verde, Cristina; Merino, Enrique

    2010-07-01

    We present a simple and highly accurate computational method for operon prediction, based on intergenic distances and functional relationships between the protein products of contiguous genes, as defined by STRING database (Jensen,L.J., Kuhn,M., Stark,M., Chaffron,S., Creevey,C., Muller,J., Doerks,T., Julien,P., Roth,A., Simonovic,M. et al. (2009) STRING 8-a global view on proteins and their functional interactions in 630 organisms. Nucleic Acids Res., 37, D412-D416). These two parameters were used to train a neural network on a subset of experimentally characterized Escherichia coli and Bacillus subtilis operons. Our predictive model was successfully tested on the set of experimentally defined operons in E. coli and B. subtilis, with accuracies of 94.6 and 93.3%, respectively. As far as we know, these are the highest accuracies ever obtained for predicting bacterial operons. Furthermore, in order to evaluate the predictable accuracy of our model when using an organism's data set for the training procedure, and a different organism's data set for testing, we repeated the E. coli operon prediction analysis using a neural network trained with B. subtilis data, and a B. subtilis analysis using a neural network trained with E. coli data. Even for these cases, the accuracies reached with our method were outstandingly high, 91.5 and 93%, respectively. These results show the potential use of our method for accurately predicting the operons of any other organism. Our operon predictions for fully-sequenced genomes are available at http://operons.ibt.unam.mx/OperonPredictor/.

  14. Work ability as prognostic risk marker of disability pension : Single-item work ability score versus multi-item work ability index

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, C.A.M.; Rhenen, van W.; Groothoff, J.W.; Klink, van der J.J.L.; Twisk, W.R.; Heymans, M.W.

    2014-01-01

    Work ability predicts future disability pension (DP). A single-item work ability score (WAS) is emerging as a measure for work ability. This study compared single-item WAS with the multi-item work ability index (WAI) in its ability to identify workers at risk of DP.

  15. Prognostic impact of admission blood glucose for all-cause mortality in patients with acute coronary syndromes: added value on top of GRACE risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timóteo, Ana T; Papoila, Ana L; Rio, Pedro; Miranda, Fernando; Ferreira, Maria L; Ferreira, Rui C

    2014-09-01

    Abnormal glucose metabolism is a predictor of worse outcome after acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, this parameter is not included in risk prediction scores, including GRACE risk score. We sought to evaluate whether the inclusion of blood glucose at admission in a model with GRACE risk score improves risk stratification. Study of consecutive patients included in a single centre registry of ACS. Our primary endpoint was the occurrence of all-cause mortality at one-year follow-up. The ability of the two logistic regression models (GRACE risk score alone and in combination with blood glucose) to predict death was analysed. Continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were also calculated. We included 2099 patients, with a mean age of 64 (SD=13) years, 69% males. In our sample, 55.1% presented with ST-segment elevation ACS and 13.1% in Killip class ≥ 2. Only 25% were known diabetic at admission. In-hospital mortality was 5.8% and 9.7% at one-year follow-up. The best cut-point for blood glucose was 160 mg/dl (sensitivity 62% and specificity 68%), and 35.2% of the patients had increased levels. This group was elderly, had more prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, worse renal function and GRACE score as well as more frequently Killip class ≥2. Treatment was similar in both groups besides less frequent use of clopidogrel in high glycaemic patients. The hyperglycaemia group had higher one-year mortality (17.2% vs. 5.6%, pimprovement in both the NRI (37%) and the IDI (0.021), suggesting effective reclassification. A blood glucose level on admission ≥ 160 mg/dl is an independent predictor of mortality in medium-term follow-up. It offers an incremental predictive value when added to the GRACE risk score, although with a modest magnitude of improvement, probably due to the high predictive performance of the GRACE risk score alone. © The European Society of

  16. Validation of Photograph-Based Toxicity Score for Topical 5-Fluorouracil Cream Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomerantz, Hyemin; Korgavkar, Kaveri; Lee, Kachiu C; Lew, Robert; Weinstock, Martin A

    2016-09-01

    An objective tool quantifying the toxicity of 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) from photographs was recently reported, and its reliability was confirmed. The aim of this study was to validate the photograph-based toxicity score. Photograph-based toxicity scores of participants assigned to the 5-FU arm of a randomized placebo-controlled trial were tested for correlations with their patient-reported symptom scores and baseline characteristics. Each pair of individual and overall scores of patient-reported symptoms and photograph-based toxicity was correlated at 2 and 4 weeks (correlation coefficient range, 0.34-0.95; P photograph-based 5-FU toxicity score. The tool can be used to objectively measure 5-FU toxicity in clinical or research setting, and it can be a prototype for toxicity measurements of other topical medications. © The Author(s) 2016.

  17. Fine Needle Aspiration Biopsies for Gene Expression Ratio-based Diagnostic and Prognostic Tests in Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Rienzo, Assunta; Dong, Lingsheng; Yeap, Beow Y.; Jensen, Roderick V.; Richards, William G.; Gordon, Gavin J.; Sugarbaker, David J.; Bueno, Raphael

    2010-01-01

    Purpose Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is an aggressive disease associated with median survival between 9 and 12 months. The correct diagnosis of MPM is sometimes challenging and usually requires solid tissue biopsies rather than fine needle aspiration biopsies (FNA). We postulated that the accuracy of FNA-based diagnosis might be improved by the addition of molecular tests using a gene expression ratio-based algorithm and that prognostic tests could be similarly performed. Experimental Design Two MPM and two lung cancer cell lines were used to establish the minimal RNA amount required for ratio tests. Based on these results, 276 ex-vivo FNA biopsies from 63 MPM patients, and 250 ex-vivo FNA samples from 92 lung cancer patients were analyzed using previously described diagnostic and prognostic tests based on gene expression ratios. Results We found that the sensitivity of the diagnostic test for MPM was 100% (95% CI: 95–100%), and the specificity in primary lung adenocarcinoma was 90% (95% CI: 81–95%). The FNA-based prognostic classification was concordant among 76% (95% CI: 65–87%) of patients with the risk assignment in a subset of the matched surgical specimens previously analyzed by the prognostic test. Conclusions Sufficient RNA can be extracted from most FNA biopsies to perform gene expression molecular tests. In particular, we show that the gene expression ratio algorithms performed well when applied to diagnosis and prognosis in MPM. This study provides support for the development of additional RNA molecular tests that may enhance the utility of FNA in the management of other solid cancers. PMID:21088255

  18. Comparison of the prognostic predictive value of the TIMI, PAMI, CADILLAC, and GRACE risk scores in STEACS undergoing primary or rescue PCI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez-Eirín, Elizabet; Flores-Ríos, Xacobe; García-López, Fernando; Pérez-Pérez, Alberto J; Estévez-Loureiro, Rodrigo; Piñón-Esteban, Pablo; Aldama-López, Guillermo; Salgado-Fernández, Jorge; Calviño-Santos, Ramón A; Vázquez Rodríguez, José M; Vázquez-González, Nicolás; Castro-Beiras, Alfonso

    2012-03-01

    We sought to compare the predictive value of the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI), Controlled Abciximab and Device Investigation to Lower Late Angioplasty Complications (CADILLAC), Primary Angioplasty in Myocardial Infarction (PAMI), and Global Registry for Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) scores for the outcome of ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome undergoing urgent percutaneous coronary intervention. We performed a retrospective analysis of a cohort composed of all consecutive patients with ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome treated by urgent percutaneous coronary intervention between 2006 and 2010 (n=1503). TIMI, PAMI, CADILLAC, and GRACE risk scores were calculated for each patient according to different clinical variables. We assessed the predictive accuracy of these scores for death, reinfarction, and target-vessel revascularization at 30 days and 1 year, using the C statistic, which was obtained by means of logistic regression and ROC curves. The TIMI, PAMI, CADILLAC and GRACE showed an excellent predictive value for 30-day and 1-year mortality (C statistic range, 0.8-0.9), with superiority of the TIMI, CADILLAC, and GRACE risk models. The performance of these 4 scores was poor for both reinfarction and target-vessel revascularization (C statistic, 0.5-0.6). The TIMI, PAMI, CADILLAC, and GRACE scores provide excellent information to stratify the risk of mortality in patients treated by percutaneous coronary intervention. The TIMI, CADILLAC, and GRACE models have higher predictive accuracy. The usefulness of these models for reinfarction and target-vessel revascularization prediction is questionable. Copyright © 2011 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  19. Aberrant Promoter Methylation of Protocadherin8 (PCDH8) in Serum is a Potential Prognostic Marker for Low Gleason Score Prostate Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ying-Li; Li, Yan-Li; Ma, Jian-Guo

    2017-10-13

    BACKGROUND PCDH8 is a newly-discovered suppressor gene that is frequently inactivated by aberrant methylation in several human cancers, including prostate cancer. The identification of PCDH8 methylation can be used as a potential predictive biomarker. Prostate cancer patients with high Gleason score are considered as being at high risk for tumor recurrence and progression, and adjuvant therapy is often routinely performed in clinical practice. In the present study, we did not measure the methylation of PCDH8 in these patients. The main purpose of the present study was to evaluate the clinical significance of PCDH8 methylation in serum of prostate cancer patients with low Gleason score. MATERIAL AND METHODS PCDH8 methylation in serum samples of 117 patients and 47 controls was checked by methylation-specific PCR (MSP). Then, we correlated PCDH8 methylation status with the clinicopathological parameters of prostate cancer patients with low Gleason score and patient outcomes. RESULTS We found that PCDH8 was more frequently methylated in serum samples of patients with prostate cancer than in controls. PCDH8 methylation was correlated with advanced clinical stage (P=0.021), higher level of preoperative PSA (P=0.008), and positive lymph node metastasis (P=0.010). Moreover, patients with PCDH8 methylation had worse biochemical recurrence (BCR)-free survival (PGleason score were: PCDH8 methylation in serum (Exp (B)=3.147, 95% CI: 1.152-7.961, P=0.007), clinical stage (Exp (B)=2.53, 95% CI: 1.032-4.763, P=0.025) and lymph node status (Exp (B)=1.476, 95% CI: 1.107-4.572, P=0.042). CONCLUSIONS Our study indicated that PCDH8 methylation in serum occurred frequently in prostate cancer patients and was correlated with risk factors for poor outcome. The methylation of PCDH8 in serum is a potential predictive marker for prostate cancer patients with low Gleason score after surgery.

  20. The prognostic value of dividing epithelial ovarian cancer into type I and type II tumors based on pathologic characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prahm, Kira Philipsen; Karlsen, Mona Aarenstrup; Høgdall, Estrid

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prognostic significance of dividing epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) in type I and type II tumors based on pathologic variables. METHODS: We used the Danish Gynecologic Cancer Database to identify all patients diagnosed with EOC from 2005 to 2012. Information on histo......OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prognostic significance of dividing epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) in type I and type II tumors based on pathologic variables. METHODS: We used the Danish Gynecologic Cancer Database to identify all patients diagnosed with EOC from 2005 to 2012. Information...... for survival confirmed the increased overall survival for type I tumors after two years of follow-up (hazard ratio: 1.85, 95% confidence interval: 1.35-2.54, Ppathologic variables was associated with an increased risk of death...

  1. Homology model-based virtual screening for GPCR ligands using docking and target-biased scoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radestock, Sebastian; Weil, Tanja; Renner, Steffen

    2008-05-01

    The current study investigates the combination of two recently reported techniques for the improvement of homology model-based virtual screening for G-protein coupled receptor (GPCR) ligands. First, ligand-supported homology modeling was used to generate receptor models that were in agreement with mutagenesis data and structure-activity relationship information of the ligands. Second, interaction patterns from known ligands to the receptor were applied for scoring and rank ordering compounds from a virtual library using ligand-receptor interaction fingerprint-based similarity (IFS). Our approach was evaluated in retrospective virtual screening experiments for antagonists of the metabotropic glutamate receptor (mGluR) subtype 5. The results of our approach were compared to the results obtained by conventional scoring functions (Dock-Score, PMF-Score, Gold-Score, ChemScore, and FlexX-Score). The IFS lead to significantly higher enrichment rates, relative to the competing scoring functions. Though using a target-biased scoring approach, the results were not biased toward the chemical classes of the reference structures. Our results indicate that the presented approach has the potential to serve as a general setup for successful structure-based GPCR virtual screening.

  2. Prognostic value of perfusion defect volume at dual energy CTA in patients with pulmonary embolism: Correlation with CTA obstruction scores, CT parameters of right ventricular dysfunction and adverse clinical outcome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apfaltrer, Paul, E-mail: paul.apfaltrer@medma.uni-heidelberg.de [Department of Clinical Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, University Medical Center Mannheim, Medical Faculty Mannheim - Heidelberg University, Theodor-Kutzer-Ufer 1-3, D-68167 Mannheim (Germany); Bachmann, Valentin, E-mail: valentin.bachmann@googl.com [Department of Clinical Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, University Medical Center Mannheim, Medical Faculty Mannheim - Heidelberg University, Theodor-Kutzer-Ufer 1-3, D-68167 Mannheim (Germany); Meyer, Mathias, E-mail: mr.meyer.mathias@gmail.com [Department of Clinical Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, University Medical Center Mannheim, Medical Faculty Mannheim - Heidelberg University, Theodor-Kutzer-Ufer 1-3, D-68167 Mannheim (Germany); Henzler, Thomas, E-mail: Thomas.Henzler@umm.de [Department of Clinical Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, University Medical Center Mannheim, Medical Faculty Mannheim - Heidelberg University, Theodor-Kutzer-Ufer 1-3, D-68167 Mannheim (Germany); Barraza, John M., E-mail: barraza@musc.edu [Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Medical University of South Carolina, PO Box 250322, 169 Ashley Avenue, Charleston, SC 29425 (United States); Gruettner, Joachim, E-mail: joachim.gruettner@umm.de [1st Department of Medicine, University Medical Center Mannheim, Medical Faculty Mannheim - Heidelberg University, Theodor-Kutzer-Ufer 1-3, D-68167 Mannheim (Germany); Walter, Thomas, E-mail: Thomas.Walter2@umm.de [1st Department of Medicine, University Medical Center Mannheim, Medical Faculty Mannheim - Heidelberg University, Theodor-Kutzer-Ufer 1-3, D-68167 Mannheim (Germany); Schoepf, U. Joseph, E-mail: schoepf@musc.edu [Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Medical University of South Carolina, PO Box 250322, 169 Ashley Avenue, Charleston, SC 29425 (United States); and others

    2012-11-15

    Purpose: To investigate the prognostic value of perfusion defect volume (PDvol) at dual-energy-CT-angiography (DE-CTA) in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) by correlating PDvol with CTA-obstruction-scores (OS), CT parameters of right-ventricular-dysfunction (RVD), and adverse-clinical-outcome. Materials and methods: DE-CTA of 60 patients (mean age: 65 {+-} 14.4 years) with PE were analyzed. Iodine maps were generated, and normalized PDvol - defined as volume of perfusion defects/total lung volume - was quantified. Furthermore, established prognostic parameters (Qanadli and Mastora-OS, and CT parameters of RVD) were obtained. CT parameters of RVD - namely the right ventricle/left ventricle (RV/LV) diameter ratio measured on transverse sections (RV/LVtrans), four-chamber views (RV/LV4ch), and RV/LV volume ratios (RV/LVvol) - were assessed. PDvol was correlated with OS, CT parameters of RVD and adverse clinical outcome (defined as the need for intensive care treatment or death). Results: 10 of 60 patients with PE experienced adverse clinical outcome. Patients with adverse clinical outcome showed significantly higher PDvol (35 {+-} 11% vs. 23 {+-} 10%, p = 0.002), RV/LV ratios (RV/LV4ch 1.46 {+-} 0.32 vs. 1.18 {+-} 0.26, p = 0.005; RV/LVvol 2.25 {+-} 1.33 vs. 1.19 {+-} 0.56, p = 0.002) and higher Mastora global scores (52 vs. 13, p = 0.02) compared to those without adverse clinical outcome. A weak correlation was observed between PDvol and the Mastora global score (r = 0.5; p = 0.0003), as well as between PDvol and RV/LV4Ch (r = 0.432, p = 0.0006). No correlation was found between PDvol and the Qanadli score or the remainder of the RVD-CT parameters. Conclusion: The extent of perfusion defects as assessed by DE-CTA correlates with adverse clinical outcome in patients with PE. Therefore, volumetric quantification of perfusion defects at DE-CTA allows the identification of low-risk patients who do not require intensified monitoring and treatment.

  3. Measuring frailty in population-based healthcare databases: multi-dimensional prognostic indices for the improvement of geriatric care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet Sultana

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The prognostic evaluation of geriatric patients is critical in helping clinicians to weigh the risks versus the benefits of available therapeutic options. Frailty contributes significantly to the risk of mortality in older patients and is already known to have implications on the outcome of treatment in a clinical context. The multi-dimensional prognostic index (MPI is a prognostic tool based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment and includes detailed information on patient cognition, functionality, disease and drug burden. The value of the MPI in predicting mortality has already been shown in hospital and community settings but never in a population- based healthcare database setting. One of the aims of the ongoing EU-funded MPI_Age project is to improve our understanding of how geriatric frailty data can be identified in healthcare databases and whether this can be used to predict serious adverse events associated with pharmacotherapy. Our findings suggest that data on functionality in elderly patients is poorly registered in The Health Improvement Network (THIN, a UK nationwide general practice database, and only few of the functionality domains could be used in a population-based analysis. The most commonly registered functionality information was related to mobility, dressing, accommodation and cognition. Our results suggest that some of these functionality domains are predictive of short- and long-term mortality in community-dwelling patients. This may have implications in observational research where frailty is an unmeasured confounder.

  4. The effectiveness of the APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA prognostic scoring systems in patients with haematological malignancies in the intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicka, Wioletta; Owczuk, Radosław; Wujtewicz, Magdalena Anna; Wujtewicz, Maria

    2014-01-01

    Cancer-related mortality remains the second most common cause of death in Poland. In many cases, the occurrence of treatment-related complications requires admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). The aim of this study was to assess the clinical application of the APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA scales to evaluate the risk of death in patients with haematological malignancies treated in the ICU. This study's analysis included 99 patients, who were each assigned to one of the following two groups: surviving patients who were discharged from the ICU (n = 24); and patients who died in the ICU (n = 75). Analysis was performed using demographic, clinical and laboratory data obtained during the patient's admission to the ICU and also during the first 24 hours of intensive therapy. Patient assessment was performed using the APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA scoring systems as well as other clinical variables. Univariate logistic regression identified the following risk factors of death in patients with haematological malignancies: systolic (P = 0.006), diastolic (P = 0.01) and mean arterial pressure values (P = 0.009); occurrence of acute kidney injury; neutrophil (P = 0.009) and platelet count in the peripheral blood (P = 0.001); and the SAPS II (P = 0.00005), SOFA (P = 0.00009) and APACHE II (P = 0.0007) scores. SAPS II score was the only independent risk factor of patient death in multivariate analysis (P = 0.0004; unitary OR 1.052 [95% CI: 1.022-1.082]). Of all the applied patient assessment scales, only the SAPS II score was found to be useful in subjects with haematological malignancies hospitalised in the ICU.

  5. The Criterion-Related Validity of a Computer-Based Approach for Scoring Concept Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clariana, Roy B.; Koul, Ravinder; Salehi, Roya

    2006-01-01

    This investigation seeks to confirm a computer-based approach that can be used to score concept maps (Poindexter & Clariana, 2004) and then describes the concurrent criterion-related validity of these scores. Participants enrolled in two graduate courses (n=24) were asked to read about and research online the structure and function of the heart…

  6. Comparison of "E-Rater"[R] Automated Essay Scoring Model Calibration Methods Based on Distributional Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Mo; Williamson, David M.; Breyer, F. Jay; Trapani, Catherine

    2012-01-01

    This article describes two separate, related studies that provide insight into the effectiveness of "e-rater" score calibration methods based on different distributional targets. In the first study, we developed and evaluated a new type of "e-rater" scoring model that was cost-effective and applicable under conditions of absent human rating and…

  7. Recurrence risk of low Apgar score among term singletons: a population-based cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ensing, Sabine; Schaaf, Jelle M.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Mol, Ben W. J.; Ravelli, Anita C. J.

    2014-01-01

    To examine the risk of recurrence of low Apgar score in a subsequent term singleton pregnancy. Population-based cohort study. The Netherlands. A total of 190,725 women with two subsequent singleton term live births between 1999 and 2007. We calculated the recurrence risk of low Apgar score after

  8. On the Relationships between Sum Score Based Estimation and Joint Maximum Likelihood Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Pino, Guido; San Martin, Ernesto; Gonzalez, Jorge; De Boeck, Paul

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the sum score based (SSB) formulation of the Rasch model, where items and sum scores of persons are considered as factors in a logit model. After reviewing the evolution leading to the equality between their maximum likelihood estimates, the SSB model is then discussed from the point of view of pseudo-likelihood and of…

  9. Scoring Divergent Thinking Tests by Computer With a Semantics-Based Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenes Beketayev

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Divergent thinking (DT tests are useful for the assessment of creative potentials. This article reports the semantics-based algorithmic (SBA method for assessing DT. This algorithm is fully automated: Examinees receive DT questions on a computer or mobile device and their ideas are immediately compared with norms and semantic networks. This investigation compared the scores generated by the SBA method with the traditional methods of scoring DT (i.e., fluency, originality, and flexibility. Data were collected from 250 examinees using the “Many Uses Test” of DT. The most important finding involved the flexibility scores from both scoring methods. This was critical because semantic networks are based on conceptual structures, and thus a high SBA score should be highly correlated with the traditional flexibility score from DT tests. Results confirmed this correlation (r = .74. This supports the use of algorithmic scoring of DT. The nearly-immediate computation time required by SBA method may make it the method of choice, especially when it comes to moderate- and large-scale DT assessment investigations. Correlations between SBA scores and GPA were insignificant, providing evidence of the discriminant and construct validity of SBA scores. Limitations of the present study and directions for future research are offered.

  10. Prognostic significance of Gleason score 7 (3+4) and Gleason score 7 (4+3) in prostatic adenocarcinoma in relation to clinical stage, androgen tissue status and degree of neuroendocrine differentiation

    OpenAIRE

    Mijović M.; Vukićević D.; Đerković B.; Nedeljković V.; Vitković L.

    2014-01-01

    Prognosis and choice of treatment of adenocarcinoma of the prostate (ADCP) directly depend on the numerous of predictive factors, among which the most important are summary histological tumor grade (Gleason score, which is the sum of the first and second dominant histological grade) and clinical stage. According to recent research these factors include androgen tissue status and degree of neuroendocrine differentiation. The importance of the first and second dominant histological grade become...

  11. The diagnostic and prognostic role of liquid-based cytology: are we ready to monitor therapy and resistance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Esther Diana; Bizzarro, Tommaso; Longatto-Filho, Adhemar; Gerhard, Rene; Schmitt, Fernando

    2015-01-01

    Here, we evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic role of liquid-based cytology (LBC) in different body lesions, including thyroid, lung, effusions and malignant breast lesions. LBC has gained consensus after being applied to both non-gynecologic and fine-needle aspiration cytology. Although some remain sceptical regarding the diagnostic efficacy of LBC, mainly when used alone, in recent years, good results have been obtained as long as it showed a high diagnostic accuracy. Here, we discuss the additional possibility of storing material for the application of ancillary techniques (immunocytochemistry-molecular analysis) with several diagnostic and prognostic advantages, which may pave the way for the challenging evaluation of both monitoring responses to treatment and resistance to targeted therapies in thyroid, lung, breast carcinoma or malignant effusions. Furthermore, it provides the use of several molecular spots as specific targets for personalized therapy.

  12. Regression coefficient-based scoring system should be used to assign weights to the risk index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Hemalkumar B; Mehta, Vinay; Girman, Cynthia J; Adhikari, Deepak; Johnson, Michael L

    2016-11-01

    Some previously developed risk scores contained a mathematical error in their construction: risk ratios were added to derive weights to construct a summary risk score. This study demonstrates the mathematical error and derived different versions of the Charlson comorbidity score (CCS) using regression coefficient-based and risk ratio-based scoring systems to further demonstrate the effects of incorrect weighting on performance in predicting mortality. This retrospective cohort study included elderly people from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Cox proportional hazards regression models were constructed for time to 1-year mortality. Weights were assigned to 17 comorbidities using regression coefficient-based and risk ratio-based scoring systems. Different versions of CCS were compared using Akaike information criteria (AIC), McFadden's adjusted R(2), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Regression coefficient-based models (Beta, Beta10/integer, Beta/Schneeweiss, Beta/Sullivan) had lower AIC and higher R(2) compared to risk ratio-based models (HR/Charlson, HR/Johnson). Regression coefficient-based CCS reclassified more number of people into the correct strata (NRI range, 9.02-10.04) compared to risk ratio-based CCS (NRI range, 8.14-8.22). Previously developed risk scores contained an error in their construction adding ratios instead of multiplying them. Furthermore, as demonstrated here, adding ratios fail to even work adequately from a practical standpoint. CCS derived using regression coefficients performed slightly better than in fitting the data compared to risk ratio-based scoring systems. Researchers should use a regression coefficient-based scoring system to develop a risk index, which is theoretically correct. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Segmentation and accuracy-based scores for the automatic assessment of oral proficiency for proficient L2 speakers

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Wet, Febe

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available . Results indicate that, both for segmentation as well as accuracy-based scores, the most simple scores correlate best with the humans’ opinion on the students’ proficiency. Combining different scores using multiple linear regression leads to marginally...

  14. Prognostic Factors in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moura, Mirian Conceicao; Novaes, Maria Rita Carvalho Garbi; Eduardo, Emanoel Junio; Zago, Yuri S S P; Freitas, Ricardo Del Negro Barroso; Casulari, Luiz Augusto

    2015-01-01

    To determine the prognostic factors associated with survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis at diagnosis. This retrospective population-based study evaluated 218 patients treated with riluzole between 2005 and 2014 and described their clinical and demographic profiles after the analysis of clinical data and records from the mortality information system in the Federal District, Brazil. Cox multivariate regression analysis was conducted for the parameters found. The study sample consisted of 132 men and 86 women with a mean age at disease onset of 57.2±12.3 years; 77.6% of them were Caucasian. The mean periods between disease onset and diagnosis were 22.7 months among men and 23.5 months among women, and the mean survival periods were 45.7±47.0 months among men and 39.3±29.8 months among women. In addition, 80.3% patients presented non-bulbar-onset amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, and 19.7% presented bulbar-onset. Cox regression analysis indicated worse prognosis for body mass index (BMI) 75 years (RR: 12.47, 95% CI: 3.51-44.26), and bulbar-onset (RR: 4.56, 95% CI: 2.06-10.12). Electromyography did not confirm the diagnosis in 55.6% of the suspected cases and in 27.9% of the bulbar-onset cases. The factors associated with lower survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis were age >75 years, BMI <25 kg/m2, and bulbar-onset.

  15. Avaliação prognóstica da doença coronária estável através de um novo escore Evaluación pronóstica de la enfermedad coronaria estable a través de un nuevo score New prognostic score for stable coronary disease evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda Coutinho Storti

    2011-05-01

    simplificado. MÉTODOS: Un nuevo score se aplicó en 372 coronariópatas multiarteriales y función ventricular preservada, el 71,8% varones, edad media de 59,5 (± 9,07 años, randomizados para angioplastia, revascularización quirúrgica y tratamiento clínico, seguidos de cinco años. Muerte cardiovascular fue el resultado primario. El infarto de miocardio no fatal, la muerte y la re-intervención formaron el desenlace combinado secundario. El score se basó en una ecuación previamente validada resultante de la suma de 1 punto a: sexo masculino, antecedentes de infarto, angina, diabetes, uso de insulina y todavía un punto por cada década de vida después de 40 años. Prueba positiva añadida 1 punto. RESULTADOS: Hubo 36 muertes (10 en el grupo de angioplastia, 15 en el grupo de revascularización y 11 en el grupo clínico, p = 0,61. Se observó 93 eventos combinados: 37 en el grupo angioplastia, 23 en el grupo revascularización y 33 en el grupo clínico (p = 0,058. Presentaron score clínico > 5 puntos y 216 > 6 puntos 247 pacientes. El valor de corte > 5 o > 6 puntos identificó un mayor riesgo, con p = 0,015 y p = 0,012, respectivamente. La curva de sobrevida mostró una incidencia de muerte después de la aleatorización que aquellos con score > 6 puntos (p = 0,07, y una incidencia de eventos combinados diferentes entre los pacientes con score 6 puntos (p = 0,02. CONCLUSIÓN: El nuevo score demostró consistencia en la evaluación pronóstica del coronariópata estable multiarterial. (Arq Bras Cardiol 2011;96(5:411-419BACKGROUND: The need to improve the exercise testing accuracy, pushed the development of scores, whose applicability was already broadly recognized. OBJECTIVE: Prognostic evaluation of stable coronary disease through a new simplified score. METHODS: A new score was applied in 372 multivessel coronary patients with preserved ventricular function, 71.8% male, age: 59.5 (± 9.07 years old, randomized to medical treatment, surgery (CABG or angioplasty (PTCA

  16. Integrating authentic assessment with competency based learning: the Protocol Portfolio Scoring.

    OpenAIRE

    Sluijsmans, Dominique; Straetmans, Gerard; Van Merriënboer, Jeroen

    2009-01-01

    Sluijsmans, D. M. A., Straetmans, G., & Van Merriënboer, J. (2008). Integrating authentic assessment with competency based learning: the Protocol Portfolio Scoring. Journal of Vocational Education and Training, 60(2), 157-172.

  17. An Enhanced Rule-Based Web Scanner Based on Similarity Score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LEE, M.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an enhanced rule-based web scanner in order to get better accuracy in detecting web vulnerabilities than the existing tools, which have relatively high false alarm rate when the web pages are installed in unconventional directory paths. Using the proposed matching method based on similarity score, the proposed scheme can determine whether two pages have the same vulnerabilities or not. With this method, the proposed scheme is able to figure out the target web pages are vulnerable by comparing them to the web pages that are known to have vulnerabilities. We show the proposed scanner reduces 12% false alarm rate compared to the existing well-known scanner through the performance evaluation via various experiments. The proposed scheme is especially helpful in detecting vulnerabilities of the web applications which come from well-known open-source web applications after small customization, which happens frequently in many small-sized companies.

  18. Impact of Moodle-Based Online Curriculum on Thoracic Surgery In-Training Examination Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonoff, Mara B; Verrier, Edward D; Allen, Mark S; Aloia, Lauren; Baker, Craig; Fann, James I; Iannettoni, Mark D; Yang, Stephen C; Vaporciyan, Ara A

    2016-10-01

    The feasibility and efficacy of a web-based curriculum in supplementing thoracic surgical training was previously shown. However, the impact of curricular participation on validated knowledge tests remains unknown. We compared in-service training examination (ITE) results among trainees, stratified by curricular use. The national online curriculum was implemented in August 2013. We retrospectively reviewed trainees who participated in thoracic surgical training programs in both 2012 to 2013 and 2013 to 2014. Scores from the 2013 and 2014 ITEs were obtained, and curricular usage data were collected from site analytics. Trainees were separated into three groups according to 2013 ITE scores; within each group, changes in score for high- versus low-volume users were compared. 187 trainees took the ITE both years, with exposure to the online curriculum during only the second year. High-volume users' scores trended toward greater improvement than scores of low-volume users (+18.2% versus +13.0%, p = 0.199). When stratified by 2013 score, the lowest scoring quartile improved substantially, and the highest scoring quartile improved modestly, regardless of curricular use. However, for those individuals who achieved mid-range scores in 2013, there was a trend toward much greater improvement in score with heavier use of the curriculum (+17.0% versus +7.0%, p = 0.094). Among trainees who had access to the novel online curriculum during the second of 2 consecutive years, we evaluated the impact of curricular participation on ITE scores. The effect appears to be most pronounced in individuals with mid-range scores, in whom high curricular use led to the greatest improvement. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Significance analysis of prognostic signatures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew H Beck

    Full Text Available A major goal in translational cancer research is to identify biological signatures driving cancer progression and metastasis. A common technique applied in genomics research is to cluster patients using gene expression data from a candidate prognostic gene set, and if the resulting clusters show statistically significant outcome stratification, to associate the gene set with prognosis, suggesting its biological and clinical importance. Recent work has questioned the validity of this approach by showing in several breast cancer data sets that "random" gene sets tend to cluster patients into prognostically variable subgroups. This work suggests that new rigorous statistical methods are needed to identify biologically informative prognostic gene sets. To address this problem, we developed Significance Analysis of Prognostic Signatures (SAPS which integrates standard prognostic tests with a new prognostic significance test based on stratifying patients into prognostic subtypes with random gene sets. SAPS ensures that a significant gene set is not only able to stratify patients into prognostically variable groups, but is also enriched for genes showing strong univariate associations with patient prognosis, and performs significantly better than random gene sets. We use SAPS to perform a large meta-analysis (the largest completed to date of prognostic pathways in breast and ovarian cancer and their molecular subtypes. Our analyses show that only a small subset of the gene sets found statistically significant using standard measures achieve significance by SAPS. We identify new prognostic signatures in breast and ovarian cancer and their corresponding molecular subtypes, and we show that prognostic signatures in ER negative breast cancer are more similar to prognostic signatures in ovarian cancer than to prognostic signatures in ER positive breast cancer. SAPS is a powerful new method for deriving robust prognostic biological signatures from clinically

  20. Population-based study of breast cancer in older women: prognostic factors of relative survival and predictors of treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dialla Pegdwende

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A large proportion of women with breast cancer (BC are elderly. However, there is a lack of information regarding BC prognostic factors and care in this population. The aims of this study were to assess the prognostic factors of relative survival (RS among women with BC aged ≥ 75 years old and to identify the predictive factors of treatments administered to this population. Methods A population-based study was performed using data from the Cote d’Or breast and gynaecological cancer registry. Women aged 75 years and older with primary invasive BC and resident in Cote d’Or at the time of diagnosis made between January 1998 and December 2008 were retrospectively selected. Prognostic factors of RS were estimated in a generalized linear model with a Poisson error structure. RS rate for the whole population was given at 5 years. Logistic regression models were used to identify the predictors of the treatments administered. Results Six hundred and eighty-one women were included. Median age at diagnosis was 80. Comorbidities (p=0.02, pT stage (p=0.04, metastases (p= Conclusions Comorbid conditions adversely affect survival in older women with breast cancer. Moreover the results of this study showed that there are numerous predictors of the type of treatment administered, and that the most important were age and comorbidities.

  1. CT-based volumetric tumor growth velocity: A novel imaging prognostic indicator in oropharyngeal cancer patients receiving radiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perni, Subha; Mohamed, Abdallah S R; Scott, Jacob; Enderling, Heiko; Garden, Adam S; Gunn, G Brandon; Rosenthal, David I; Fuller, Clifton D

    2016-12-01

    Volumetric tumor growth velocity (TGV) reflects in vitro tumor aggressiveness, but its prognostic value has not been investigated in vivo. We examined the prognostic impact of TGV on oncologic outcomes in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer (OSCC). 101 OSCC patients with two pretreatment CTs with time gap of 2 or more weeks treated at a single institution between 2004 and 2008 were identified. Primary tumor and nodal targets were segmented in scans. Linear growth rates were calculated. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) identified cut point associated with outcomes. Median follow-up was 59months (range 7-118). Median primary TGV was 0.65% increase per day (range 0-9.37%). RPA identified TGV cut point associated with local control (LC) of 1% per day. Patients with higher TGV had decreased 5-year LC (73% vs. 98%, p=0.0004), distant control (DC, 62% vs. 91%, p=0.0007), and overall survival (OS, 38% versus 93%, pTGV⩾1% per day independently predicted worsened LC (p = 0.02), DC (p = 0.003), and OS (p TGV cutoff was not significantly predictive of LC, DC, or OS for a subset of presumed HPV-positive patients. OSCC TGV⩾1% per day is a substantive negative prognostic indicator for disease control and overall survival, particularly in HPV non-associated tumors. This novel CT-based volumetric assessment of TGV suggests a simple methodology for risk stratification of patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Poststratification Equating Based on True Anchor Scores and Its Relationship to Levine Observed Score Equating. Research Report. ETS RR-13-11

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Haiwen; Livingston, Samuel A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a new equating method for the nonequivalent groups with anchor test design: poststratification equating based on true anchor scores. The linear version of this method is shown to be equivalent, under certain conditions, to Levine observed score equating, in the same way that the linear version of poststratification equating is…

  3. Standardized computer-based organized reporting of EEG SCORE - Second version

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniczky, Sándor; Aurlien, Harald; Brøgger, Jan C

    2017-01-01

    Standardized terminology for computer-based assessment and reporting of EEG has been previously developed in Europe. The International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology established a taskforce in 2013 to develop this further, and to reach international consensus. This work resulted in the se......Standardized terminology for computer-based assessment and reporting of EEG has been previously developed in Europe. The International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology established a taskforce in 2013 to develop this further, and to reach international consensus. This work resulted...... in the second, revised version of SCORE (Standardized Computer-based Organized Reporting of EEG), which is presented in this paper. The revised terminology was implemented in a software package (SCORE EEG), which was tested in clinical practice on 12,160 EEG recordings. Standardized terms implemented in SCORE....... In the end, the diagnostic significance is scored, using a standardized list of terms. SCORE has specific modules for scoring seizures (including seizure semiology and ictal EEG patterns), neonatal recordings (including features specific for this age group), and for Critical Care EEG Terminology. SCORE...

  4. A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A remaining useful life prediction methodology for elec- trolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical...

  5. A Model-Based Prognostics Methodology For Electrolytic Capacitors Based On Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A remaining useful life prediction methodology for electrolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical...

  6. Knowledge-based scoring function to predict protein-ligand interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gohlke, H; Hendlich, M; Klebe, G

    2000-01-14

    The development and validation of a new knowledge-based scoring function (DrugScore) to describe the binding geometry of ligands in proteins is presented. It discriminates efficiently between well-docked ligand binding modes (root-mean-square deviation Definition of an appropriate reference state and accounting for inaccuracies inherently present in experimental data is required to achieve good predictive power. The sum of the pair preferences and the singlet preferences is calculated based on the 3D structure of protein-ligand binding modes generated by docking tools. For two test sets of 91 and 68 protein-ligand complexes, taken from the Protein Data Bank (PDB), the calculated score recognizes poses generated by FlexX deviating <2 A from the crystal structure on rank 1 in three quarters of all possible cases. Compared to FlexX, this is a substantial improvement. For ligand geometries generated by DOCK, DrugScore is superior to the "chemical scoring" implemented into this tool, while comparable results are obtained using the "energy scoring" in DOCK. None of the presently known scoring functions achieves comparable power to extract binding modes in agreement with experiment. It is fast to compute, regards implicitly solvation and entropy contributions and produces correctly the geometry of directional interactions. Small deviations in the 3D structure are tolerated and, since only contacts to non-hydrogen atoms are regarded, it is independent from assumptions of protonation states. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

  7. Standardized computer-based organized reporting of EEG: SCORE - Second version.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniczky, Sándor; Aurlien, Harald; Brøgger, Jan C; Hirsch, Lawrence J; Schomer, Donald L; Trinka, Eugen; Pressler, Ronit M; Wennberg, Richard; Visser, Gerhard H; Eisermann, Monika; Diehl, Beate; Lesser, Ronald P; Kaplan, Peter W; Nguyen The Tich, Sylvie; Lee, Jong Woo; Martins-da-Silva, Antonio; Stefan, Hermann; Neufeld, Miri; Rubboli, Guido; Fabricius, Martin; Gardella, Elena; Terney, Daniella; Meritam, Pirgit; Eichele, Tom; Asano, Eishi; Cox, Fieke; van Emde Boas, Walter; Mameniskiene, Ruta; Marusic, Petr; Zárubová, Jana; Schmitt, Friedhelm C; Rosén, Ingmar; Fuglsang-Frederiksen, Anders; Ikeda, Akio; MacDonald, David B; Terada, Kiyohito; Ugawa, Yoshikazu; Zhou, Dong; Herman, Susan T

    2017-11-01

    Standardized terminology for computer-based assessment and reporting of EEG has been previously developed in Europe. The International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology established a taskforce in 2013 to develop this further, and to reach international consensus. This work resulted in the second, revised version of SCORE (Standardized Computer-based Organized Reporting of EEG), which is presented in this paper. The revised terminology was implemented in a software package (SCORE EEG), which was tested in clinical practice on 12,160 EEG recordings. Standardized terms implemented in SCORE are used to report the features of clinical relevance, extracted while assessing the EEGs. Selection of the terms is context sensitive: initial choices determine the subsequently presented sets of additional choices. This process automatically generates a report and feeds these features into a database. In the end, the diagnostic significance is scored, using a standardized list of terms. SCORE has specific modules for scoring seizures (including seizure semiology and ictal EEG patterns), neonatal recordings (including features specific for this age group), and for Critical Care EEG Terminology. SCORE is a useful clinical tool, with potential impact on clinical care, quality assurance, data-sharing, research and education. Copyright © 2017 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Prognostic Classifier Based on Genome-Wide DNA Methylation Profiling in Well-Differentiated Thyroid Tumors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisarro Dos Reis, Mariana; Barros-Filho, Mateus Camargo; Marchi, Fábio Albuquerque

    2017-01-01

    . Objective: To identify a prognostic epigenetic signature in thyroid cancer. Design: Genome-wide DNA methylation assays (450k platform, Illumina) were performed in a cohort of 50 nonneoplastic thyroid tissues (NTs), 17 benign thyroid lesions (BTLs), and 74 thyroid carcinomas (60 papillary, 8 follicular, 2......Context: Even though the majority of well-differentiated thyroid carcinoma (WDTC) is indolent, a number of cases display an aggressive behavior. Cumulative evidence suggests that the deregulation of DNA methylation has the potential to point out molecular markers associated with worse prognosis...... Hürthle cell, 1 poorly differentiated, and 3 anaplastic). A prognostic classifier for WDTC was developed via diagonal linear discriminant analysis. The results were compared with The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Results: A specific epigenetic profile was detected according to each histological...

  9. A Cochlear Implant Performance Prognostic Test Based on Electrical Field Interactions Evaluated by eABR (Electrical Auditory Brainstem Responses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Guevara

    Full Text Available Cochlear implants (CIs are neural prostheses that have been used routinely in the clinic over the past 25 years. They allow children who were born profoundly deaf, as well as adults affected by hearing loss for whom conventional hearing aids are insufficient, to attain a functional level of hearing. The "modern" CI (i.e., a multi-electrode implant using sequential coding strategies has yielded good speech comprehension outcomes (recognition level for monosyllabic words about 50% to 60%, and sentence comprehension close to 90%. These good average results however hide a very important interindividual variability as scores in a given patients' population often vary from 5 to 95% in comparable testing conditions. Our aim was to develop a prognostic model for patients with unilateral CI. A novel method of objectively measuring electrical and neuronal interactions using electrical auditory brainstem responses (eABRs is proposed.The method consists of two measurements: 1 eABR measurements with stimulation by a single electrode at 70% of the dynamic range (four electrodes distributed within the cochlea were tested, followed by a summation of these four eABRs; 2 Measurement of a single eABR with stimulation from all four electrodes at 70% of the dynamic range. A comparison of the eABRs obtained by these two measurements, defined as the monaural interaction component (MIC, indicated electrical and neural interactions between the stimulation channels. Speech recognition performance without lip reading was measured for each patient using a logatome test (64 "vowel-consonant-vowel"; VCV; by forced choice of 1 out of 16. eABRs were measured in 16 CI patients (CIs with 20 electrodes, Digisonic SP; Oticon Medical ®, Vallauris, France. Significant correlations were found between speech recognition performance and the ratio of the amplitude of the V wave of the eABRs obtained with the two measurements (Pearson's linear regression model, parametric correlation: r

  10. Complementary prognostic values of ST segment deviation and Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes: Insights from the Platelet Receptor Inhibition in Ischemic Syndrome Management in Patients Limited by Unstable Signs and Symptoms (PRISM-PLUS) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huynh, Thao; Nasmith, James; Luong, The Minh; Bernier, Martin; Pharand, Chantal; Xue-Qiao, Zhao; Giugliano, Robert P; Theroux, Pierre

    2009-12-01

    Although the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score incorporates ST deviation, it does not account for characteristics of the ST deviations. In the present study, it was hypothesized that the magnitude and characteristics of ST deviation may add to the prognostic values of the TIMI risk score in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients, particularly in lower-risk patients with a TIMI risk score of less than 5. To evaluate the prognostic value of combining the TIMI risk score and characteristics of ST deviation in patients with non-ST elevation ACS and a TIMI risk score of less than 5. The death/myocardial infarction (MI) rates of 1296 patients enrolled in the Platelet Receptor Inhibition in Ischemic Syndrome Management in Patients Limited by Unstable Signs and Symptoms (PRISM-PLUS) angiographic substudy were examined. Patients without a TIMI risk score of 5 or greater, and without an ST deviation of 1 mm or greater had the lowest six-month rate of death/ MI (5%). In patients with a TIMI risk score of less than 5, the six-month death/MI rate was increased in those with ST depression of 2 mm or greater compared with patients with a similar TIMI risk score and without ST deviation of 1 mm or greater (24% versus 5%, PTIMI risk score of less than 5. ST segment deviation of 2 mm or greater confers additional prognostic information in non-ST elevation ACS patients with a TIMI risk score of less than 5. Patients with a TIMI risk score of less than 5 and ST deviation of 2 mm or less had the lowest risk of six-month death/MI.

  11. Stroma-Based Prognosticators Incorporating Differences between African and European Americans

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-01

    both RNA and DNA from 40 AA and 70 EA samples. We can profile the higher quality and higher yield RNA and DNA samples by array card RT-PCR, and...prognosticators from training set. months Status Subtask 1: Regulatory review and approval processes, including local Institutional Review...African American (AA) and 60 clinically matched European American (EA) samples with recurrence status and at least five years of follow- up. Training

  12. Electrohydraulic Servomechanisms Affected by Multiple Failures: A Model-Based Prognostic Method Using Genetic Algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Dalla Vedova, Matteo Davide Lorenzo; Maggiore, Paolo

    2016-01-01

    In order to detect incipient failures due to a progressive wear of a primary flight command electro hydraulic actuator (EHA), prognostics could employ several approaches; the choice of the best ones is driven by the efficacy shown in failure detection, since not all the algorithms might be useful for the proposed purpose. In other words, some of them could be suitable only for certain applications while they could not give useful results for others. Developing a fault detection algorithm able...

  13. Optimal query-based relevance feedback in medical image retrieval using score fusion-based classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behnam, Mohammad; Pourghassem, Hossein

    2015-04-01

    In this paper, a new content-based medical image retrieval (CBMIR) framework using an effective classification method and a novel relevance feedback (RF) approach are proposed. For a large-scale database with diverse collection of different modalities, query image classification is inevitable due to firstly, reducing the computational complexity and secondly, increasing influence of data fusion by removing unimportant data and focus on the more valuable information. Hence, we find probability distribution of classes in the database using Gaussian mixture model (GMM) for each feature descriptor and then using the fusion of obtained scores from the dependency probabilities, the most relevant clusters are identified for a given query. Afterwards, visual similarity of query image and images in relevant clusters are calculated. This method is performed separately on all feature descriptors, and then the results are fused together using feature similarity ranking level fusion algorithm. In the RF level, we propose a new approach to find the optimal queries based on relevant images. The main idea is based on density function estimation of positive images and strategy of moving toward the aggregation of estimated density function. The proposed framework has been evaluated on ImageCLEF 2005 database consisting of 10,000 medical X-ray images of 57 semantic classes. The experimental results show that compared with the existing CBMIR systems, our framework obtains the acceptable performance both in the image classification and in the image retrieval by RF.

  14. Competency based training in robotic surgery: benchmark scores for virtual reality robotic simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raison, Nicholas; Ahmed, Kamran; Fossati, Nicola; Buffi, Nicolò; Mottrie, Alexandre; Dasgupta, Prokar; Van Der Poel, Henk

    2017-05-01

    To develop benchmark scores of competency for use within a competency based virtual reality (VR) robotic training curriculum. This longitudinal, observational study analysed results from nine European Association of Urology hands-on-training courses in VR simulation. In all, 223 participants ranging from novice to expert robotic surgeons completed 1565 exercises. Competency was set at 75% of the mean expert score. Benchmark scores for all general performance metrics generated by the simulator were calculated. Assessment exercises were selected by expert consensus and through learning-curve analysis. Three basic skill and two advanced skill exercises were identified. Benchmark scores based on expert performance offered viable targets for novice and intermediate trainees in robotic surgery. Novice participants met the competency standards for most basic skill exercises; however, advanced exercises were significantly more challenging. Intermediate participants performed better across the seven metrics but still did not achieve the benchmark standard in the more difficult exercises. Benchmark scores derived from expert performances offer relevant and challenging scores for trainees to achieve during VR simulation training. Objective feedback allows both participants and trainers to monitor educational progress and ensures that training remains effective. Furthermore, the well-defined goals set through benchmarking offer clear targets for trainees and enable training to move to a more efficient competency based curriculum. © 2016 The Authors BJU International © 2016 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Development of a food-based diet quality score for Japanese: associations of the score with nutrient intakes in young, middle-aged and older Japanese women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuriyama, Nozomi; Murakami, Kentaro; Livingstone, M Barbara E; Okubo, Hitomi; Kobayashi, Satomi; Suga, Hitomi; Sasaki, Satoshi

    2016-01-01

    Several previous studies have shown that a diet score based on the Japanese food guide Spinning Top (the original score) is associated with both favourable and unfavourable dietary intake patterns. We developed a food-based diet quality score (the modified score) and examined associations with nutrient intakes. Subjects were 3963 young (all aged 18 years), 3800 middle-aged (mean age 47·7 (sd 3·9) years) and 2211 older (mean age 74·4 (sd 5·2) years) Japanese women. Dietary intakes were assessed using comprehensive (for the young and middle-aged) and brief-type (for the older) diet history questionnaires. The original score was calculated based on intakes of grains, vegetables, fish/meat, milk, fruits, and snacks/alcoholic beverages. The modified score was similarly calculated, but included Na from seasonings and without applying the upper cut-off values for dietary components where increased consumption is advocated for Japanese women (grains, vegetables, fish/meat, milk, and fruits). The original score was positively associated with intakes of carbohydrate, dietary fibre, and all the vitamins and minerals examined including Na and inversely with intakes of fats and alcohol in young and middle-aged women. In older women, the original score was inversely associated with intakes of all nutrients except for carbohydrate and vitamin C. However, the modified score was associated positively with intakes of protein, carbohydrate, dietary fibre, K, Ca, Mg, Fe, vitamins A, C and E, and folate and inversely with intakes of fats, alcohol and Na in all generations. In conclusion, the modified diet score was positively associated with favourable nutrient intake patterns in Japanese women.

  16. A Hybrid PCA-CART-MARS-Based Prognostic Approach of the Remaining Useful Life for Aircraft Engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Sánchez Lasheras

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Prognostics is an engineering discipline that predicts the future health of a system. In this research work, a data-driven approach for prognostics is proposed. Indeed, the present paper describes a data-driven hybrid model for the successful prediction of the remaining useful life of aircraft engines. The approach combines the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS technique with the principal component analysis (PCA, dendrograms and classification and regression trees (CARTs. Elements extracted from sensor signals are used to train this hybrid model, representing different levels of health for aircraft engines. In this way, this hybrid algorithm is used to predict the trends of these elements. Based on this fitting, one can determine the future health state of a system and estimate its remaining useful life (RUL with accuracy. To evaluate the proposed approach, a test was carried out using aircraft engine signals collected from physical sensors (temperature, pressure, speed, fuel flow, etc.. Simulation results show that the PCA-CART-MARS-based approach can forecast faults long before they occur and can predict the RUL. The proposed hybrid model presents as its main advantage the fact that it does not require information about the previous operation states of the input variables of the engine. The performance of this model was compared with those obtained by other benchmark models (multivariate linear regression and artificial neural networks also applied in recent years for the modeling of remaining useful life. Therefore, the PCA-CART-MARS-based approach is very promising in the field of prognostics of the RUL for aircraft engines.

  17. Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

    2016-09-30

    Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. A urinary biomarker-based risk score correlates with multiparametric MRI for prostate cancer detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendriks, Rianne J; van der Leest, Marloes M G; Dijkstra, Siebren; Barentsz, Jelle O; Van Criekinge, Wim; Hulsbergen-van de Kaa, Christina A; Schalken, Jack A; Mulders, Peter F A; van Oort, Inge M

    2017-10-01

    Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnostics would greatly benefit from more accurate, non-invasive techniques for the detection of clinically significant disease, leading to a reduction of over-diagnosis and over-treatment. The aim of this study was to determine the association between a novel urinary biomarker-based risk score (SelectMDx), multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) outcomes, and biopsy results for PCa detection. This retrospective observational study used data from the validation study of the SelectMDx score, in which urine was collected after digital rectal examination from men undergoing prostate biopsies. A subset of these patients also underwent a mpMRI scan of the prostate. The indications for performing mpMRI were based on persistent clinical suspicion of PCa or local staging after PCa was found upon biopsy. All mpMRI images were centrally reviewed in 2016 by an experienced radiologist blinded for the urine test results and biopsy outcome. The PI-RADS version 2 was used. In total, 172 patients were included for analysis. Hundred (58%) patients had PCa detected upon prostate biopsy, of which 52 (52%) had high-grade disease correlated with a significantly higher SelectMDx score (P PSA and 0.65 for PCA3. There was a positive association between SelectMDx score and the final PI-RADS grade. There was a statistically significant difference in SelectMDx score between PI-RADS 3 and 4 (P PI-RADS 4 and 5 (P < 0.01). The novel urinary biomarker-based SelectMDx score is a promising tool in PCa detection. This study showed promising results regarding the correlation between the SelectMDx score and mpMRI outcomes, outperforming PCA3. Our results suggest that this risk score could guide clinicians in identifying patients at risk for significant PCa and selecting patients for further radiological diagnostics to reduce unnecessary procedures. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Liver stiffness measurement-based scoring system for significant inflammation related to chronic hepatitis B.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei-Zhu Hong

    Full Text Available Liver biopsy is indispensable because liver stiffness measurement alone cannot provide information on intrahepatic inflammation. However, the presence of fibrosis highly correlates with inflammation. We constructed a noninvasive model to determine significant inflammation in chronic hepatitis B patients by using liver stiffness measurement and serum markers.The training set included chronic hepatitis B patients (n = 327, and the validation set included 106 patients; liver biopsies were performed, liver histology was scored, and serum markers were investigated. All patients underwent liver stiffness measurement.An inflammation activity scoring system for significant inflammation was constructed. In the training set, the area under the curve, sensitivity, and specificity of the fibrosis-based activity score were 0.964, 91.9%, and 90.8% in the HBeAg(+ patients and 0.978, 85.0%, and 94.0% in the HBeAg(- patients, respectively. In the validation set, the area under the curve, sensitivity, and specificity of the fibrosis-based activity score were 0.971, 90.5%, and 92.5% in the HBeAg(+ patients and 0.977, 95.2%, and 95.8% in the HBeAg(- patients. The liver stiffness measurement-based activity score was comparable to that of the fibrosis-based activity score in both HBeAg(+ and HBeAg(- patients for recognizing significant inflammation (G ≥3.Significant inflammation can be accurately predicted by this novel method. The liver stiffness measurement-based scoring system can be used without the aid of computers and provides a noninvasive alternative for the prediction of chronic hepatitis B-related significant inflammation.

  20. Observed Score Equating Using Discrete and Passage-Based Anchor Items

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zu, Jiyun; Liu, Jinghua

    2010-01-01

    Equating of tests composed of both discrete and passage-based multiple choice items using the nonequivalent groups with anchor test design is popular in practice. In this study, we compared the effect of discrete and passage-based anchor items on observed score equating via simulation. Results suggested that an anchor with a larger proportion of…

  1. Context-Dependent Prognostics and Health Assessment: A Condition-Based Maintenance Approach That Supports Mission Compliance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allgood, G.O.; Kercel, S.W.

    1999-04-19

    In today's manufacturing environment, plants, systems, and equipment are being asked to perform at levels not thought possible a decade ago. The intent is to improve process operations and equipment reliability, availability, and maintainability without costly upgrades. Of course these gains must be achieved without impacting operational performance. Downsizing is also taking its toll on operations. Loss of personnel, particularly those who represent the corporate history, is depleting US industries of their valuable experiential base which has been relied on so heavily in the past. These realizations are causing companies to rethink their condition-based maintenance policies by moving away from reacting to equipment problems to taking a proactive approach by anticipating needs based on market and customer requirements. This paper describes a different approach to condition-based maintenance-context-dependent prognostics and health assessment. This diagnostic capability is developed around a context-dependent model that provides a capability to anticipate impending failures and determine machine performance over a protracted period of time. This prognostic capability links operational requirements to an economic performance model. In this context, a system may provide 100% operability with less than 100% functionality. This paradigm is used to facilitate optimal logistic supply and support.

  2. Electroencephalogram-based decoding cognitive states using convolutional neural network and likelihood ratio based score fusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zafar, Raheel; Dass, Sarat C; Malik, Aamir Saeed

    2017-01-01

    Electroencephalogram (EEG)-based decoding human brain activity is challenging, owing to the low spatial resolution of EEG. However, EEG is an important technique, especially for brain-computer interface applications. In this study, a novel algorithm is proposed to decode brain activity associated with different types of images. In this hybrid algorithm, convolutional neural network is modified for the extraction of features, a t-test is used for the selection of significant features and likelihood ratio-based score fusion is used for the prediction of brain activity. The proposed algorithm takes input data from multichannel EEG time-series, which is also known as multivariate pattern analysis. Comprehensive analysis was conducted using data from 30 participants. The results from the proposed method are compared with current recognized feature extraction and classification/prediction techniques. The wavelet transform-support vector machine method is the most popular currently used feature extraction and prediction method. This method showed an accuracy of 65.7%. However, the proposed method predicts the novel data with improved accuracy of 79.9%. In conclusion, the proposed algorithm outperformed the current feature extraction and prediction method.

  3. Defining Emergency Department Necessary Policies Based on Clinical Governance Accreditation Scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Esmailian

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The role of accreditation scheme in quality improvement of emergency departments (ED has not been thoroughly evaluated in studies. Therefore, this study was designed to appraise the effects of policies defined based on clinical governance accreditation scores, on improvement of the procedures in ED. Methods: The present cohort study was carried out in the ED of Alzahra University Hospital, Isfahan, Iran in 2012-2013. In 2012 the deficiencies in ED of this hospital was determined based on clinical governance indicators. Then the deficiencies were classified based on their importance and changes were made in the ED. Finally, the effects of the changes were evaluated in August 2013. Results: The evaluation made in 2012 showed that 23 clinical and non-clinical procedures were carried out with deficiencies. Over the mentioned period, 6 (26.1% procedures were not done at all, while 17 (73.9% were done without a policy and irregularly. The overall score for clinical and non-clinical procedures in the ED before carrying out the accreditation scheme was 43 / 230 (18.7% of the maximum possible score. The score was raised to 222 equal to 96.5% of the maximum possible score after carrying out the scheme. This increase was statistically significant (p < 0.001. Conclusion: The findings of the present study showed that defining policies for improving the procedures carried out in ED based on accreditation scheme leads to improvement of medical services in ED.

  4. The development and evaluation of a new shoulder scoring system based on the view of patients and physicians: the Fudan University shoulder score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Yunshen; Chen, Shiyi; Chen, Jiwu; Hua, Yinghui; Li, Yunxia

    2013-04-01

    greater than 0.7. In addition, the intraclass correlation coefficient was greater than 0.9 during a 2-week test-retest interval, indicating high reliability, and the standardized response mean of the new system was greater than that of the other 3 scoring systems, indicating sensitive responsiveness. A new shoulder scoring system has been developed based on patients' and physicians' points of view and worldwide applicability and was verified to be valid, reliable, and responsive. The new scoring system includes a 2-dimensional visual analog scale, night pain subscale, and patient-physician satisfaction scale, which are not included in the existing scoring systems. Level III, development of diagnostic criteria. Copyright © 2013 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. The TRIAGE-ProADM Score for an Early Risk Stratification of Medical Patients in the Emergency Department - Development Based on a Multi-National, Prospective, Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutz, Alexander; Hausfater, Pierre; Amin, Devendra; Amin, Adina; Canavaggio, Pauline; Sauvin, Gabrielle; Bernard, Maguy; Conca, Antoinette; Haubitz, Sebastian; Struja, Tristan; Huber, Andreas; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

    2016-01-01

    The inflammatory biomarker pro-adrenomedullin (ProADM) provides additional prognostic information for the risk stratification of general medical emergency department (ED) patients. The aim of this analysis was to develop a triage algorithm for improved prognostication and later use in an interventional trial. We used data from the multi-national, prospective, observational TRIAGE trial including consecutive medical ED patients from Switzerland, France and the United States. We investigated triage effects when adding ProADM at two established cut-offs to a five-level ED triage score with respect to adverse clinical outcome. Mortality in the 6586 ED patients showed a step-wise, 25-fold increase from 0.6% to 4.5% and 15.4%, respectively, at the two ProADM cut-offs (≤0.75nmol/L, >0.75-1.5nmol/L, >1.5nmol/L, p ANOVA triage score resulted in the identification of 1662 patients (25.2% of the population) at a very low risk of mortality (0.3%, n = 5) and 425 patients (6.5% of the population) at very high risk of mortality (19.3%, n = 82). Risk estimation by using ProADM and the triage score from a logistic regression model allowed for a more accurate risk estimation in the whole population with a classification of 3255 patients (49.4% of the population) in the low risk group (0.3% mortality, n = 9) and 1673 (25.4% of the population) in the high-risk group (15.1% mortality, n = 252). Within this large international multicenter study, a combined triage score based on ProADM and established triage scores allowed a more accurate mortality risk discrimination. The TRIAGE-ProADM score improved identification of both patients at the highest risk of mortality who may benefit from early therapeutic interventions (rule in), and low risk patients where deferred treatment without negatively affecting outcome may be possible (rule out).

  6. Prognostic factors of patients with newly diagnosed acute promyelocytic leukemia treated with arsenic trioxide-based frontline therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Yinjun; Ma, Yafang; Suo, Shanshan; Ni, Wanmao; Wang, Yungui; Pan, Hanzhang; Tong, Hongyan; Qian, Wenbin; Meng, Haitao; Mai, Wenyuan; Huang, Jian; Yu, Wenjuan; Wei, Juyin; Mao, Liping; Jin, Jie

    2015-09-01

    Prognostic factors for patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) treated in the context of arsenic trioxide (ATO)-based frontline regimes have not been established clearly. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical features, immunophenotypes, Fms-like tyrosine kinase-3 internal tandem duplication (FLT3-ITD), and outcomes of 184 consecutive newly diagnosed APL patients treated by intravenous ATO-based therapy. The median age was 40 years (14-77 years). The early death rate was 4.9% (9/184 patients). With a median follow-up time of 36 months (9-74 months), the 3-year relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were 93.3% and 92.2%, respectively. Interestingly, there was no meaningful association between 3-year RFS and initial white blood cell count, FLT3-ITD status, or type of PML-RARA isoforms. In multivariable analysis, the CD56 expression was the only independent risk factor in terms of RFS (hazard ratio, 4.70; P=0.005). These results suggested that ATO-based therapy may ameliorate the unfavorable influence of previously known high-risk features; moreover, CD56 expression remains to be a potentially unfavorable prognostic factor in APL patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A Discussion on Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-based Prognostics Algorithms based on Kalman Filter Estimation Applied to Prognostics of Electronics Components

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This article presented a discussion on uncertainty representation and management for model-based prog- nostics methodologies based on the Bayesian tracking framework...

  8. The clinical characteristics and prognostic analysis of Chinese advanced NSCLC patients based on circulating tumor DNA sequencing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rao C

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Chuangzhou Rao,1 Liangqin Nie,1 Xiaobo Miao,1 Yunbao Xu,1 Bing Li,2 Tengfei Zhang2 1Radiotherapy & Chemotherapy Dept 2, Ningbo No. 2 Hospital, Zhejiang, 2Burning Rock Biotech, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China Purpose: Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA is a noninvasive and real-time marker for tumor diagnosis, prognosis, and prediction. However, further investigations about ctDNA prognostic and predictive value are still needed, and conclusions from several studies were inconsistent.Experimental design: We performed capture-based targeted ultradeep sequencing on liquid biopsies from a cohort of 34 advanced Chinese non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC patients and analyzed the clinical use of ctDNA in this study.Results: On the basis of clinical characteristics of the 34 NSCLC patients, we found that brain metastasis correlated with shorter progression-free survival (PFS and is more prone to happen in younger patients. After ctDNA sequencing, we analyzed the prognostic value of baseline ctDNA. In osimertinib-treated group, high max allelic fraction (maxAF correlated with shorter PFS. But for the cohort of 34 patients, no correlation can be observed between maxAF and PFS. We also presented two cases to demonstrate the value of disease progression prediction by ctDNA, which can be detected earlier than clinical response.Conclusion: In this study, we demonstrated that ctDNA is a prognostic marker for evaluating treatment response and predicting recurrence in advanced NSCLC. Further investigations with larger cohort and uniformed patient background are still needed to validate our findings. Keywords: circulating tumor DNA, non-small-cell lung cancer, prognosis 

  9. Prognostic value of normal stress-only myocardial perfusion imaging: a comparison between conventional and CZT-based SPECT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yokota, Shu; Ottervanger, Jan Paul; Timmer, Jorik R. [Isala Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Zwolle (Netherlands); Mouden, Mohamed; Engbers, Elsemiek [Isala Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Zwolle (Netherlands); Isala Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Zwolle (Netherlands); Knollema, Siert; Jager, Pieter L. [Isala Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Zwolle (Netherlands)

    2016-02-15

    Single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion imaging has proven to have prognostic importance in patients with suspected stable coronary artery disease (CAD). The recently introduced ultrafast cadmium zinc telluride (CZT)-based gamma cameras have been associated with less equivocal findings and more normal interpretations, allowing stress-only imaging to be performed more often. However, it is yet unclear whether normal stress-only CZT SPECT has comparable prognostic value as normally interpreted stress-only conventional SPECT. The study population consisted of 1,650 consecutive patients without known CAD with normal stress-only myocardial perfusion results with either conventional (n = 362) or CZT SPECT (n = 1,288). The incidence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE, all-cause death, non-fatal myocardial infarction and/or coronary revascularization) was compared between the conventional SPECT and CZT SPECT groups. Multivariable analyses using the Cox model were used to adjust for differences in baseline variables. Patients scanned with CZT were less often male (33 vs 39 %), had less often hypercholesterolaemia (41 vs 50 %) and had more often a family history of CAD (57 vs 49 %). At a median follow-up time of 37 months (interquartile range 28-45 months) MACE occurred in 68 patients. The incidence of MACE was 1.5 %/year in the CZT group, compared to 2.0 %/year in the conventional group (p = 0.08). After multivariate analyses, there was a trend to a lower incidence of MACE in the CZT SPECT group (hazard ratio 0.61, 95 % confidence interval 0.35-1.04, p = 0.07). The prognostic value of normal stress-only CZT SPECT is at least comparable and may be even better than that of normal conventional stress SPECT. (orig.)

  10. Physics-based scoring of protein-ligand interactions: explicit polarizability, quantum mechanics and free energies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryce, Richard A

    2011-04-01

    The ability to accurately predict the interaction of a ligand with its receptor is a key limitation in computer-aided drug design approaches such as virtual screening and de novo design. In this article, we examine current strategies for a physics-based approach to scoring of protein-ligand affinity, as well as outlining recent developments in force fields and quantum chemical techniques. We also consider advances in the development and application of simulation-based free energy methods to study protein-ligand interactions. Fuelled by recent advances in computational algorithms and hardware, there is the opportunity for increased integration of physics-based scoring approaches at earlier stages in computationally guided drug discovery. Specifically, we envisage increased use of implicit solvent models and simulation-based scoring methods as tools for computing the affinities of large virtual ligand libraries. Approaches based on end point simulations and reference potentials allow the application of more advanced potential energy functions to prediction of protein-ligand binding affinities. Comprehensive evaluation of polarizable force fields and quantum mechanical (QM)/molecular mechanical and QM methods in scoring of protein-ligand interactions is required, particularly in their ability to address challenging targets such as metalloproteins and other proteins that make highly polar interactions. Finally, we anticipate increasingly quantitative free energy perturbation and thermodynamic integration methods that are practical for optimization of hits obtained from screened ligand libraries.

  11. Feature and Score Fusion Based Multiple Classifier Selection for Iris Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Rabiul Islam

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to propose a new feature and score fusion based iris recognition approach where voting method on Multiple Classifier Selection technique has been applied. Four Discrete Hidden Markov Model classifiers output, that is, left iris based unimodal system, right iris based unimodal system, left-right iris feature fusion based multimodal system, and left-right iris likelihood ratio score fusion based multimodal system, is combined using voting method to achieve the final recognition result. CASIA-IrisV4 database has been used to measure the performance of the proposed system with various dimensions. Experimental results show the versatility of the proposed system of four different classifiers with various dimensions. Finally, recognition accuracy of the proposed system has been compared with existing N hamming distance score fusion approach proposed by Ma et al., log-likelihood ratio score fusion approach proposed by Schmid et al., and single level feature fusion approach proposed by Hollingsworth et al.

  12. Predicting the biological activities through QSAR analysis and docking-based scoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilar, Santiago; Costanzi, Stefano

    2012-01-01

    Numerous computational methodologies have been developed to facilitate the process of drug discovery. Broadly, they can be classified into ligand-based approaches, which are solely based on the calculation of the molecular properties of compounds, and structure-based approaches, which are based on the study of the interactions between compounds and their target proteins. This chapter deals with two major categories of ligand-based and structure-based methods for the prediction of biological activities of chemical compounds, namely quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis and docking-based scoring. QSAR methods are endowed with robustness and good ranking ability when applied to the prediction of the activity of closely related analogs; however, their great dependence on training sets significantly limits their applicability to the evaluation of diverse compounds. Instead, docking-based scoring, although not very effective in ranking active compounds on the basis of their affinities or potencies, offer the great advantage of not depending on training sets and have proven to be suitable tools for the distinction of active from inactive compounds, thus providing feasible platforms for virtual screening campaigns. Here, we describe the basic principles underlying the prediction of biological activities on the basis of QSAR and docking-based scoring, as well as a method to combine two or more individual predictions into a consensus model. Finally, we describe an example that illustrates the applicability of QSAR and molecular docking to G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) projects.

  13. Computerized three-class classification of MRI-based prognostic markers for breast cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhooshan, Neha; Giger, Maryellen; Edwards, Darrin; Yuan, Yading; Jansen, Sanaz; Li, Hui; Lan, Li; Sattar, Husain; Newstead, Gillian

    2011-09-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate whether computerized analysis using three-class Bayesian artificial neural network (BANN) feature selection and classification can characterize tumor grades (grade 1, grade 2 and grade 3) of breast lesions for prognostic classification on DCE-MRI. A database of 26 IDC grade 1 lesions, 86 IDC grade 2 lesions and 58 IDC grade 3 lesions was collected. The computer automatically segmented the lesions, and kinetic and morphological lesion features were automatically extracted. The discrimination tasks—grade 1 versus grade 3, grade 2 versus grade 3, and grade 1 versus grade 2 lesions—were investigated. Step-wise feature selection was conducted by three-class BANNs. Classification was performed with three-class BANNs using leave-one-lesion-out cross-validation to yield computer-estimated probabilities of being grade 3 lesion, grade 2 lesion and grade 1 lesion. Two-class ROC analysis was used to evaluate the performances. We achieved AUC values of 0.80 ± 0.05, 0.78 ± 0.05 and 0.62 ± 0.05 for grade 1 versus grade 3, grade 1 versus grade 2, and grade 2 versus grade 3, respectively. This study shows the potential for (1) applying three-class BANN feature selection and classification to CADx and (2) expanding the role of DCE-MRI CADx from diagnostic to prognostic classification in distinguishing tumor grades.

  14. The ABCs of DKA: Development and Validation of a Computer-Based Simulator and Scoring System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Catherine H Y; Straus, Sharon; Brydges, Ryan

    2015-09-01

    Clinical management of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) continues to be suboptimal; simulation-based training may bridge this gap and is particularly applicable to teaching DKA management skills given it enables learning of basic knowledge, as well as clinical reasoning and patient management skills. 1) To develop, test, and refine a computer-based simulator of DKA management; 2) to collect validity evidence, according to National Standard's validity framework; and 3) to judge whether the simulator scoring system is an appropriate measure of DKA management skills of undergraduate and postgraduate medical trainees. After developing the DKA simulator, we completed usability testing to optimize its functionality. We then conducted a preliminary validation of the scoring system for measuring trainees' DKA management skills. We recruited year 1 and year 3 medical students, year 2 postgraduate trainees, and endocrinologists (n = 75); each completed a simulator run, and we collected their simulator-computed scores. We collected validity evidence related to content, internal structure, relations with other variables, and consequences. Our simulator consists of six cases highlighting DKA management priorities. Real-time progression of each case includes interactive order entry, laboratory and clinical data, and individualised feedback. Usability assessment identified issues with clarity of system status, user control, efficiency of use, and error prevention. Regarding validity evidence, Cronbach's α was 0.795 for the seven subscales indicating favorable internal structure evidence. Participants' scores showed a significant effect of training level (p < 0.001). Scores also correlated with the number of DKA patients they reported treating, weeks on Medicine rotation, and comfort with managing DKA. A score on the simulation exercise of 75 % had a sensitivity and specificity of 94.7 % and 51.8%, respectively, for delineating between expert staff physicians and trainees. We

  15. Electrocardiogram-based scoring system for predicting secondary pulmonary hypertension: A cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samir Bipin Pancholy

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives In this study, we have developed an electrocardiogram-based scoring system to predict secondary pulmonary hypertension. Design A cross-sectional study. Setting Single tertiary-care hospital in Scranton, Pennsylvania, USA. Participants Five hundred and fifty-two consecutive patients undergoing right heart catheterization between 2006 and 2009. Main outcome measures Surface electrocardiogram was assessed for R-wave in lead V1 ≥ 6mm, R-wave in V6 ≤ 3mm, S-wave in V6 ≥ 3mm, right atrial enlargement, right axis deviation and left atrial enlargement. Pulmonary hypertension was defined as mean pulmonary artery pressure ≥25 mmHg, determined by right heart catheterization. Results A total of 297 (54% patients in the study cohort had pulmonary hypertension. In total, 332 patients from the study cohort formed the development cohort and the remaining 220 patients formed the validation cohort. In the development cohort, based on log odds ratios of association, RAE, LAE, RAD, R-wave in V1 ≥ 6 mm were assigned scores of 5, 2, 2 and 1, respectively, to form a 10-point scoring system “Scranton PHT (SP score”. SP scores of 5 points and 7 points in DC showed C-statistic of 0.83 and 0.89, respectively, for discriminating pulmonary hypertension. C-statistic for RAE alone was significantly lower compared to an SP score of 7 (0.83 vs. 0.89, P  = 0.021. The reliability of SP score in the validation cohort was acceptable. Conclusion SP score provides a good point-of-care tool to predict pulmonary hypertension in patients with clinical suspicion of it.

  16. A Brain Region-Based Deep Medullary Veins Visual Score on Susceptibility Weighted Imaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruiting Zhang

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Cerebral venous collagenosis played a role in the pathogenesis of white matter hyperintensities (WMHs through venous ischemia. Since pathological changes of veins from intramural stenosis to luminal occlusion is a dynamic process, we aimed to create a deep medullary veins (DMVs visual grade on susceptibility-weighted images (SWI and explore the relationship of DMVs and WMHs based on venous drainage regions. We reviewed clinical, laboratory and imaging data from 268 consecutive WMHs patients and 20 controls. SWI images were used to observe characteristics of DMVs and a brain region-based DMVs visual score was given by two experienced neuroradiologists. Fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR images were used to calculate WMHs volume. Logistic-regression analysis and partial Pearson’s correlation analysis were used to examine the association between the DMVs score and WMHs volume. We found that the DMVs score was significantly higher in WMHs patients than in controls (p < 0.001. Increased DMVs score was independently associated with higher WMHs volume after adjusting for total cholesterol level and number of lacunes (p < 0.001. Particularly, DMVs scores were correlated with regional PVHs volumes in the same brain region most. The newly proposed DMVs grading method allows the clinician to monitor the course of DMVs disruption. Our findings of cerebral venous insufficiency in WMHs patients may help to elucidate the pathogenic mechanisms and progression of WMHs.

  17. Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: Rank-based nonlinear predictability score

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naro, Daniel; Rummel, Christian; Schindler, Kaspar; Andrzejak, Ralph G.

    2014-09-01

    The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

  18. Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: rank-based nonlinear predictability score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naro, Daniel; Rummel, Christian; Schindler, Kaspar; Andrzejak, Ralph G

    2014-09-01

    The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

  19. Software-Based Scoring and Sound Design: An Introductory Guide for Music Technology Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walzer, Daniel A.

    2016-01-01

    This article explores the creative function of virtual instruments, sequencers, loops, and software-based synthesizers to introduce basic scoring and sound design concepts for visual media in an introductory music technology course. Using digital audio workstations with user-focused and configurable options, novice composers can hone a broad range…

  20. The novel biomarker-based ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history)-bleeding risk score for patients with atrial fibrillation: a derivation and validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hijazi, Ziad; Oldgren, Jonas; Lindbäck, Johan; Alexander, John H; Connolly, Stuart J; Eikelboom, John W; Ezekowitz, Michael D; Held, Claes; Hylek, Elaine M; Lopes, Renato D; Siegbahn, Agneta; Yusuf, Salim; Granger, Christopher B; Wallentin, Lars

    2016-06-04

    The benefit of oral anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation is based on a balance between reduction in ischaemic stroke and increase in major bleeding. We aimed to develop and validate a new biomarker-based risk score to improve the prognostication of major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation. We developed and internally validated a new biomarker-based risk score for major bleeding in 14,537 patients with atrial fibrillation randomised to apixaban versus warfarin in the ARISTOTLE trial and externally validated it in 8468 patients with atrial fibrillation randomised to dabigatran versus warfarin in the RE-LY trial. Plasma samples for determination of candidate biomarker concentrations were obtained at randomisation. Major bleeding events were centrally adjudicated. The predictive values of biomarkers and clinical variables were assessed with Cox regression models. The most important variables were included in the score with weights proportional to the model coefficients. The ARISTOTLE and RE-LY trials are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, numbers NCT00412984 and NCT00262600, respectively. The most important predictors for major bleeding were the concentrations of the biomarkers growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (cTnT-hs) and haemoglobin, age, and previous bleeding. The ABC-bleeding score (age, biomarkers [GDF-15, cTnT-hs, and haemoglobin], and clinical history [previous bleeding]) score yielded a higher c-index than the conventional HAS-BLED and the newer ORBIT scores for major bleeding in both the derivation cohort (0·68 [95% CI 0·66-0·70] vs 0·61 [0·59-0·63] vs 0·65 [0·62-0·67], respectively; ABC-bleeding vs HAS-BLED phistory of bleeding, and three biomarkers (haemoglobin, cTn-hs, and GDF-15 or cystatin C/CKD-EPI) was internally and externally validated and calibrated in large cohorts of patients with atrial fibrillation receiving anticoagulation therapy. The ABC-bleeding score performed better than

  1. A global machine learning based scoring function for protein structure prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faraggi, Eshel; Kloczkowski, Andrzej

    2014-05-01

    We present a knowledge-based function to score protein decoys based on their similarity to native structure. A set of features is constructed to describe the structure and sequence of the entire protein chain. Furthermore, a qualitative relationship is established between the calculated features and the underlying electromagnetic interaction that dominates this scale. The features we use are associated with residue-residue distances, residue-solvent distances, pairwise knowledge-based potentials and a four-body potential. In addition, we introduce a new target to be predicted, the fitness score, which measures the similarity of a model to the native structure. This new approach enables us to obtain information both from decoys and from native structures. It is also devoid of previous problems associated with knowledge-based potentials. These features were obtained for a large set of native and decoy structures and a back-propagating neural network was trained to predict the fitness score. Overall this new scoring potential proved to be superior to the knowledge-based scoring functions used as its inputs. In particular, in the latest CASP (CASP10) experiment our method was ranked third for all targets, and second for freely modeled hard targets among about 200 groups for top model prediction. Ours was the only method ranked in the top three for all targets and for hard targets. This shows that initial results from the novel approach are able to capture details that were missed by a broad spectrum of protein structure prediction approaches. Source codes and executable from this work are freely available at http://mathmed.org/#Software and http://mamiris.com/. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Machine learning classification with confidence: application of transductive conformal predictors to MRI-based diagnostic and prognostic markers in depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nouretdinov, Ilia; Costafreda, Sergi G; Gammerman, Alexander; Chervonenkis, Alexey; Vovk, Vladimir; Vapnik, Vladimir; Fu, Cynthia H Y

    2011-05-15

    There is rapidly accumulating evidence that the application of machine learning classification to neuroimaging measurements may be valuable for the development of diagnostic and prognostic prediction tools in psychiatry. However, current methods do not produce a measure of the reliability of the predictions. Knowing the risk of the error associated with a given prediction is essential for the development of neuroimaging-based clinical tools. We propose a general probabilistic classification method to produce measures of confidence for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. We describe the application of transductive conformal predictor (TCP) to MRI images. TCP generates the most likely prediction and a valid measure of confidence, as well as the set of all possible predictions for a given confidence level. We present the theoretical motivation for TCP, and we have applied TCP to structural and functional MRI data in patients and healthy controls to investigate diagnostic and prognostic prediction in depression. We verify that TCP predictions are as accurate as those obtained with more standard machine learning methods, such as support vector machine, while providing the additional benefit of a valid measure of confidence for each prediction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Prognostic factors for survival in adult patients with recurrent glioblastoma: a decision-tree-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Audureau, Etienne; Chivet, Anaïs; Ursu, Renata; Corns, Robert; Metellus, Philippe; Noel, Georges; Zouaoui, Sonia; Guyotat, Jacques; Le Reste, Pierre-Jean; Faillot, Thierry; Litre, Fabien; Desse, Nicolas; Petit, Antoine; Emery, Evelyne; Lechapt-Zalcman, Emmanuelle; Peltier, Johann; Duntze, Julien; Dezamis, Edouard; Voirin, Jimmy; Menei, Philippe; Caire, François; Dam Hieu, Phong; Barat, Jean-Luc; Langlois, Olivier; Vignes, Jean-Rodolphe; Fabbro-Peray, Pascale; Riondel, Adeline; Sorbets, Elodie; Zanello, Marc; Roux, Alexandre; Carpentier, Antoine; Bauchet, Luc; Pallud, Johan

    2017-11-20

    We assessed prognostic factors in relation to OS from progression in recurrent glioblastomas. Retrospective multicentric study enrolling 407 (training set) and 370 (external validation set) adult patients with a recurrent supratentorial glioblastoma treated by surgical resection and standard combined chemoradiotherapy as first-line treatment. Four complementary multivariate prognostic models were evaluated: Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, single-tree recursive partitioning, random survival forest, conditional random forest. Median overall survival from progression was 7.6 months (mean, 10.1; range, 0-86) and 8.0 months (mean, 8.5; range, 0-56) in the training and validation sets, respectively (p = 0.900). Using the Cox model in the training set, independent predictors of poorer overall survival from progression included increasing age at histopathological diagnosis (aHR, 1.47; 95% CI [1.03-2.08]; p = 0.032), RTOG-RPA V-VI classes (aHR, 1.38; 95% CI [1.11-1.73]; p = 0.004), decreasing KPS at progression (aHR, 3.46; 95% CI [2.10-5.72]; p < 0.001), while independent predictors of longer overall survival from progression included surgical resection (aHR, 0.57; 95% CI [0.44-0.73]; p < 0.001) and chemotherapy (aHR, 0.41; 95% CI [0.31-0.55]; p < 0.001). Single-tree recursive partitioning identified KPS at progression, surgical resection at progression, chemotherapy at progression, and RTOG-RPA class at histopathological diagnosis, as main survival predictors in the training set, yielding four risk categories highly predictive of overall survival from progression both in training (p < 0.0001) and validation (p < 0.0001) sets. Both random forest approaches identified KPS at progression as the most important survival predictor. Age, KPS at progression, RTOG-RPA classes, surgical resection at progression and chemotherapy at progression are prognostic for survival in recurrent glioblastomas and should inform the treatment decisions.

  4. Prognostics of Power MOSFET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celaya, Jose Ramon; Saxena, Abhinav; Vashchenko, Vladislay; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2011-01-01

    This paper demonstrates how to apply prognostics to power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor). The methodology uses thermal cycling to age devices and Gaussian process regression to perform prognostics. The approach is validated with experiments on 100V power MOSFETs. The failure mechanism for the stress conditions is determined to be die-attachment degradation. Change in ON-state resistance is used as a precursor of failure due to its dependence on junction temperature. The experimental data is augmented with a finite element analysis simulation that is based on a two-transistor model. The simulation assists in the interpretation of the degradation phenomena and SOA (safe operation area) change.

  5. Apgar-score in children prenatally exposed to antiepileptic drugs: a population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Jakob; Pedersen, Henrik Søndergaard; Kjaersgaard, Maiken Ina Siegismund; Parner, Erik Thorlund; Vestergaard, Mogens; Sørensen, Merete Juul; Olsen, Jørn; Bech, Bodil Hammer; Pedersen, Lars Henning

    2015-09-10

    It is unknown if prenatal exposure to antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) increases the risk of low Apgar score in offspring. Population-based study using health registers in Denmark. We identified all 677 021 singletons born in Denmark from 1997 to 2008 and linked the Apgar score from the Medical Birth Register with information on the women's prescriptions for AEDs during pregnancy from the Danish Register of Medicinal Product Statistics. We used the Danish National Hospital Registry to identify mothers diagnosed with epilepsy before birth of the child. Results were adjusted for smoking and maternal age. Among 2906 children exposed to AEDs, 55 (1.9%) were born with an Apgar score ≤7 as compared with 8797 (1.3%) children among 674 115 pregnancies unexposed to AEDs (adjusted relative risk (aRR)=1.41 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.85). When analyses were restricted to the 2215 children born of mothers with epilepsy, the aRR of having a low Apgar score associated with AED exposure was 1.34 (95% CI 0.90 to 2.01) When assessing individual AEDs, we found increased, unadjusted RR for exposure to carbamazepine (RR=1.86 (95% CI 1.01 to 3.42)), valproic acid (RR=1.85 (95% CI 1.04 to 3.30)) and topiramate (RR=2.97 (95% CI 1.26 to 7.01)) when compared to unexposed children. Prenatal exposure to AEDs was associated with increased risk of being born with a low Apgar score, but the absolute risk of a low Apgar score was Apgar score associated with certain AEDs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  6. Assessing pediatric ileocolonic Crohn's disease activity based on global MR enterography scores

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pomerri, Fabio; Zuliani, Monica; Giorgi, Benedetta; Muzzio, Pier Carlo [University of Padova, Department of Medicine-DIMED, Padova (Italy); Al Bunni, Faise [Rovigo Hospital, Radiology Unit, S. Maria della Misericordia, Rovigo (Italy); Guariso, Graziella; Gasparetto, Marco; Cananzi, Mara [University of Padova, Department of Women and Child Health, Padova (Italy)

    2017-03-15

    This study was aimed at correlating a magnetic resonance index of activity (MaRIA) and a magnetic resonance enterography global score (MEGS) with activity indexes in a paediatric population with Crohn's disease (CD). This retrospective study included 32 paediatric patients (median age 14.5 years, 18 male) with proven CD who underwent magnetic resonance enterography (MRE). A correlation analysis was performed on the MRE-based scores, the simplified endoscopic score for CD (SES-CD), the paediatric Crohn's disease activity index (PCDAI), and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. Based on PCDAI, comparison of both global MaRIA and MEGS was made between patients with mild and moderate/severe disease activity. Global MaRIA correlated with SES-CD (r = 0.70, p = 0.001) and PCDAI (r = 0.42, p = 0.016). MEGS correlated with PCDAI (r = 0.46, p = 0.007) and CRP levels (r = 0.35, p = 0.046). MEGS differed significantly (p = 0.027) between patients grouped by clinical disease severity. MRE-based global scores correlated with clinical indexes of CD activity. Therefore, they represent a potential useful tool to predict CD activity and severity, as well as a possible promising alternative to endoscopy, to monitor paediatric patients with CD during their follow-up. (orig.)

  7. Development and Reliability of the OMERACT Thumb Base Osteoarthritis Magnetic Resonance Imaging Scoring System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kroon, Féline P B; Conaghan, Philip G; Foltz, Violaine

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To develop the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology (OMERACT) thumb base osteoarthritis (OA) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scoring system (TOMS) for the assessment of inflammatory and structural abnormalities in this hand OA subset, and test its cross-sectional reliability. METHODS......: Included features and their scaling were agreed upon by members of the OMERACT MRI Task Force using the Hand OA MRI scoring system as a template. A reliability exercise was performed in which 3 readers participated, using a preliminary atlas with examples to facilitate reading. Each reader independently...... scored a set of 20 MRI (coronal and axial T1- and T2-weighted fat-suppressed images, of which 5 included T1-weighted fat-suppressed post-Gadolinium images). Intra- and inter-reader reliability were assessed using ICC, percentage exact agreement (PEA), and percentage close agreement (PCA). RESULTS...

  8. Model-based prognostics for batteries which estimates useful life and uses a probability density function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Bhaskar (Inventor); Goebel, Kai F. (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    This invention develops a mathematical model to describe battery behavior during individual discharge cycles as well as over its cycle life. The basis for the form of the model has been linked to the internal processes of the battery and validated using experimental data. Effects of temperature and load current have also been incorporated into the model. Subsequently, the model has been used in a Particle Filtering framework to make predictions of remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles as well as for cycle life. The prediction performance was found to be satisfactory as measured by performance metrics customized for prognostics for a sample case. The work presented here provides initial steps towards a comprehensive health management solution for energy storage devices.

  9. Emerging gene-based prognostic tools in early breast cancer: First steps to personalised medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wazir, Umar; Mokbel, Kefah

    2014-12-10

    Breast cancer remains a major cause of neoplastic disease in much of the developed world. The majority of cases are diagnosed with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 negative invasive ductal carcinoma and are treated predominantly by surgery which includes sentinel node biopsy and adjuvant endocrine therapy ± adjuvant radiotherapy. It is believed that an indeterminate subset of the patient population is needlessly incurring chemotherapy related morbidity without attaining any increase in survival due to therapy. Furthermore in the era of extended adjuvant endocrine therapy it is important to identify those patients who can be safely treated with 5 years rather than 10 years of endocrine therapy thus optimising the benefit-risk balance. This perception has propelled the development of more personalised prognostic tools for newly diagnosed cases of ER-positive breast cancer. In this article, we shall review the evidence regarding the currently available gene assays for human breast cancer.

  10. Enhanced Prognostic Model for Lithium Ion Batteries Based on Particle Filter State Transition Model Modification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buddhi Arachchige

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on predicting the End of Life and End of Discharge of Lithium ion batteries using a battery capacity fade model and a battery discharge model. The proposed framework will be able to estimate the Remaining Useful Life (RUL and the Remaining charge through capacity fade and discharge models. A particle filter is implemented that estimates the battery’s State of Charge (SOC and State of Life (SOL by utilizing the battery’s physical data such as voltage, temperature, and current measurements. The accuracy of the prognostic framework has been improved by enhancing the particle filter state transition model to incorporate different environmental and loading conditions without retuning the model parameters. The effect of capacity fade in the reduction of the EOD (End of Discharge time with cycling has also been included, integrating both EOL (End of Life and EOD prediction models in order to get more accuracy in the estimations.

  11. Prognosis of patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinomas based on the Child-Pugh score: subclassifying the intermediate stage (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage B).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamakado, Koichiro; Miyayama, Shiro; Hirota, Shozo; Mizunuma, Kimiyoshi; Nakamura, Kenji; Inaba, Yoshitaka; Yamamoto, Satoshi; Matsuo, Kunihiro; Nishida, Norifumi; Aramaki, Takeshi; Anai, Hiroshi; Kora, Shinichi; Oikawa, Shigeo; Watanabe, Ken; Yasumoto, Taku; Furuichi, Kinya; Yamaguchi, Masato

    2014-11-01

    Retrospective evaluation of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patient survival after undergoing chemoembolization based on the Child-Pugh score. Data of intermediate-stage HCC patients undergoing chemoembolization were gathered from 43 centers in Japan. Overall survival rates were compared with Child-Pugh scores. Of the 329 patients examined in this study, Child-Pugh scores were 5 (CP-5) in 136 patients (41.3%), 6 (CP-6) in 101 patients (30.7%), 7 (CP-7) in 58 (17.7%), 8 (CP-8) in 22 (6.7%), and 9 (CP-9) in 12 (3.6%). Two-year survival rates were 77.5% in CP-5 patients (p = 0.047 vs. CP-6), 65.1% in CP-6 patients (p = 0.038 vs. CP-7), 51.3% in CP-7 patients (p = 0.30 vs. CP-8, p = 0.034 vs. CP-9), 50.3% in CP-8 patients (p = 0.0065 vs. CP-9), and 16.7% in CP-9 patients. Two-year survival rates were 77.2% in 139 patients meeting the 4 tumors of 7 cm criterion with Child-Pugh class A (B1) (p < 0.0001 vs. B2), 59.5% in 178 patients other than B1 and B3 (B2) (p = 0.0014 vs. B3), and 16.7% in 12 patients with Child-Pugh score 9 (B3). The Child-Pugh score is a useful prognostic factor to stratify intermediate-stage HCC patients.

  12. Risk estimation of distant metastasis in node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer patients using an RT-PCR based prognostic expression signature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gray Joe

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Given the large number of genes purported to be prognostic for breast cancer, it would be optimal if the genes identified are not confounded by the continuously changing systemic therapies. The aim of this study was to discover and validate a breast cancer prognostic expression signature for distant metastasis in untreated, early stage, lymph node-negative (N- estrogen receptor-positive (ER+ patients with extensive follow-up times. Methods 197 genes previously associated with metastasis and ER status were profiled from 142 untreated breast cancer subjects. A "metastasis score" (MS representing fourteen differentially expressed genes was developed and evaluated for its association with distant-metastasis-free survival (DMFS. Categorical risk classification was established from the continuous MS and further evaluated on an independent set of 279 untreated subjects. A third set of 45 subjects was tested to determine the prognostic performance of the MS in tamoxifen-treated women. Results A 14-gene signature was found to be significantly associated (p Conclusion The 14-gene signature is significantly associated with risk of distant metastasis. The signature has a predominance of proliferation genes which have prognostic significance above that of Ki-67 LI and may aid in prioritizing future mechanistic studies and therapeutic interventions.

  13. Predictive and prognostic value of CT based radiomics signature in locally advanced head and neck cancers patients treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy or bioradiotherapy and its added value to Human Papillomavirus status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ou, Dan; Blanchard, Pierre; Rosellini, Silvia; Levy, Antonin; Nguyen, France; Leijenaar, Ralph T H; Garberis, Ingrid; Gorphe, Philippe; Bidault, François; Ferté, Charles; Robert, Charlotte; Casiraghi, Odile; Scoazec, Jean-Yves; Lambin, Philippe; Temam, Stephane; Deutsch, Eric; Tao, Yungan

    2017-08-01

    To explore prognostic and predictive value of radiomics in patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (LAHNSCC) treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) or bioradiotherapy (BRT). Data of 120 patients (CRT vs. BRT matched 2:1) were retrospectively analyzed. A total of 544 radiomics features of the primary tumor were extracted from radiotherapy planning computed tomography scans. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between survival and radiomics features with false discovery rate correction. The discriminatory performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Multivariate analysis showed a 24-feature based signature significantly predicted for OS (HR=0.3, P=0.02) and progression-free survival (PFS) (HR=0.3, P=0.01). Combining the radiomics signature with p16 status showed a significant improvement of prognostic performance compared with p16 (AUC=0.78vs. AUC=0.64 at 5years, P=0.01) or radiomics signature (AUC=0.78vs. AUC=0.67, P=0.01) alone. When patients were stratified according to this combination, OS and PFS were significantly different according to the 4 sub-types (p16+ with low/high signature score; p16- with low/high signature score) (Padded value of radiomics features as prognostic and predictive biomarker in HNSCC treated with CRT/BRT. Moreover, the radiomics signature provided additional information to HPV/p16 status to further stratify patients. External validation of such findings is mandatory given the risk of overfitting. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Bacterial brain abscesses: prognostic value of an imaging severity index

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demir, M.K. [Department of Radiology, Trakya University School of Medicine, Edirne (Turkey)]. E-mail: demirkemal@superonline.com; Hakan, T. [Department of Neurosurgery, Haydarpasa Numune Education and Research Hospital, Istanbul (Turkey); Kilicoglu, G. [Department of Radiology, Haydarpasa Numune Education and Research Hospital, Istanbul (Turkey); Ceran, N. [Department of Infectious Disease, Haydarpasa Numune Education and Research Hospital, Istanbul (Turkey); Berkman, M.Z. [Department of Neurosurgery, Haydarpasa Numune Education and Research Hospital, Istanbul (Turkey); Erdem, I. [Department of Infectious Disease, Haydarpasa Numune Education and Research Hospital, Istanbul (Turkey); Goektas, P. [Department of Infectious Disease, Haydarpasa Numune Education and Research Hospital, Istanbul (Turkey)

    2007-06-15

    Aim: To assess the correlation between imaging findings [computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)] and neurological status before and after the treatment of bacterial brain abscesses. Materials and methods: CT and MRI images of 96 patients with brain abscesses were retrospectively evaluated in terms of the number, location and size of lesions, and the presence and extent of perilesional oedema and midline shift. An imaging severity index (ISI) based on these different radiological parameters was calculated. Initial Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores and ISI were assessed and the prognostic value of these two indices was calculated. The Pearson correlation test, Mann-Whitney test, Chi-square test, receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, together with comparison of ROC analyses and Fisher's exact test were used. Results: There was a negative correlation between ISI and the initial GCS values: ISI increased as the GCS score decreased, indicating an inverse relationship (r = -0.51, p < 0.0001). There was a significant difference between the ISI and GCS scores of patients with an adverse event compared with patients with good recovery. Outcome was significantly worse in patients with initial ISI over the calculated cut-off values of 8 points or GCS scores under the cut-off value of 13 points. Conclusion: ISI is a useful prognostic indicator for bacterial brain abscess patients and correlates strongly with the patient outcome for all parameters studied. ISI score had a better prognostic value than GCS.

  15. On the Use of Particle Flow to Enhance the Computational Performance of Particle-Filtering-based Prognostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-02

    Institute of Control Theory and Systems Engineering, Technische Universität Dortmund, Germany javier.oliva@tu-dortmund.de torsten.bertram@tu...AND HEALTH MANAGEMENT SOCIETY 2014 309 ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE PROGNOSTICS AND HEALTH MANAGEMENT SOCIETY 2014 The remainder of this paper is...3) 2 ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE PROGNOSTICS AND HEALTH MANAGEMENT SOCIETY 2014 310 ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE PROGNOSTICS AND HEALTH MANAGEMENT SOCIETY

  16. The relationship between interview-based schizotypal personality dimension scores and the continuous performance test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedwell, Jeffrey S; Kamath, Vidyulata; Compton, Michael T

    2009-03-01

    The existing research that has examined cognitive performance in samples with subclinical schizotypal personality features has been largely limited to psychometric self-report questionnaires, which may be biased by distorted self-awareness of symptoms. The present study examined the relationship between performance on a degraded-AX continuous performance test (CPT) and continuous dimension scores created from a structured clinical interview for schizotypal personality disorder (SPD), which reflected both the breadth and severity of schizotypal personality symptoms, in 52 undergraduate students. Only one participant met full diagnostic criteria for SPD. The overall dimension score from the SPD clinical interview showed a positive correlation with both omission (r(s)=.47) and false alarm (r(s)=.41) errors on the CPT. Interpersonal symptoms were positively correlated with omission errors (r(s)=.47), while Disorganized symptoms were positively correlated with false alarm errors (r(s)=.40). Results suggest that higher SPD interview-based dimension scores are associated with lower levels of performance on the CPT, even when examining a relatively subclinical sample of young adults. In contrast, scores from the psychometric Abbreviated Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire in the same sample did not correlate with accuracy measures on the CPT, suggesting that the interview-based measure of schizotypal personality may have a stronger relationship with CPT accuracy. Findings also add to a growing literature suggesting that Interpersonal SPD symptoms are primarily related to omission errors, while Disorganized SPD symptoms are primarily related to false alarm errors.

  17. Additive prognostic value of left ventricular ejection fraction to the TIMI risk score for in-hospital and long-term mortality in patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xue-Biao; Liu, Yuan-Hui; He, Peng-Cheng; Jiang, Lei; Zhou, Ying-Ling; Chen, Ji-Yan; Tan, Ning; Yu, Dan-Qing

    2017-01-01

    To investigate whether the addition of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) to the TIMI risk score enhances the prediction of in-hospital and long-term death in ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. 673 patients with STEMI were divided into three groups based on TIMI risk score for STEMI: low-risk group (TIMI ≤3, n = 213), moderate-risk group (TIMI 4-6, n = 285), and high-risk group (TIMI ≥7, n = 175). The predictive value was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine risk predictors. The rates of in-hospital death (0.5 vs 3.2 vs 10.3 %, p risk group. Multivariate analysis showed that TIMI risk score (OR 1.24, 95 % CI 1.04-1.48, P = 0.015) and LVEF (OR 3.85, 95 % CI 1.58-10.43, P = 0.004) were independent predictors of in-hospital death. LVEF had good predictive value for in-hospital death (AUC: 0.838 vs 0.803, p = 0.571) or 1-year death (AUC: 0.743 vs 0.728, p = 0.775), which was similar to TIMI risk score. When compared with the TIMI risk score alone, the addition of LVEF was associated with significant improvements in predicting in-hospital (AUC: 0.854 vs 0.803, p = 0.033) or 1-year death (AUC: 0.763 vs 0.728, p = 0.016). The addition of LVEF to TIMI risk score enhanced net reclassification improvement (0.864 for in-hospital death, p value to TIMI risk score.

  18. New Morbidity and Comorbidity Scores based on the Structure of the ICD-10.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stausberg, Jürgen; Hagn, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    Measures of morbidity and comorbidity are frequently used for the control of confounding, particularly in health services research. Several proposals for those measures are defined with ICD-coded diagnoses available in hospital routine data. However, a measure that makes use of the ICD structure is missing. Objective of this work was to elaborate the power of the ICD structure for defining morbidity and comorbidity measures. Routine data from three German hospitals with inpatients discharged 2008 were used for model development; routine data from 36 German hospitals with inpatients admitted and discharged 2010 were used for model evaluation. Two different risk models were developed, one based on ICD-10 chapters, the other based on ICD-10 groups. The models were transformed into sum scores using whole-number weights. Models and scores were compared with the Charlson Index and the Elixhauser Comorbidities using the receiver operating characteristic. Dependent variable was hospital death. Logistic regression was used to derive the new models. Charlson Index and Elixhauser Comorbidities were mapped to the German ICD-10. According to the receiver operating characteristic, the quality of the measures based on the structure of the ICD-10 was superior compared with the Charlson Index and the Elixhauser Comorbidities. The best result was achieved with the measure based on ICD-10-groups with an area under curve of 0.910 (95% confidence interval = 0.907-0.913). The sum scores showed a comparable performance. The developed new measures may be used to control for confounding.

  19. Associations of genetic risk scores based on adult adiposity pathways with childhood growth and adiposity measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monnereau, Claire; Vogelezang, Suzanne; Kruithof, Claudia J; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Felix, Janine F

    2016-08-18

    Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identified many loci and biological pathways that influence adult body mass index (BMI). We aimed to identify if biological pathways related to adult BMI also affect infant growth and childhood adiposity measures. We used data from a population-based prospective cohort study among 3,975 children with a mean age of 6 years. Genetic risk scores were constructed based on the 97 SNPs associated with adult BMI previously identified with GWAS and on 28 BMI related biological pathways based on subsets of these 97 SNPs. Outcomes were infant peak weight velocity, BMI at adiposity peak and age at adiposity peak, and childhood BMI, total fat mass percentage, android/gynoid fat ratio, and preperitoneal fat area. Analyses were performed using linear regression models. A higher overall adult BMI risk score was associated with infant BMI at adiposity peak and childhood BMI, total fat mass, android/gynoid fat ratio, and preperitoneal fat area (all p-values adiposity measures (all p-values BMI was associated with peak weight velocity during infancy and general and abdominal fat measurements at the age of 6 years. Risk scores based on genetic variants linked to specific biological pathways, including central nervous system and hypothalamic processes, influence body fat development from early life onwards.

  20. Scoring ultrasound synovitis in rheumatoid arthritis: a EULAR-OMERACT ultrasound taskforce-Part 1: definition and development of a standardised, consensus-based scoring system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Agostino, Maria-Antonietta; Terslev, Lene; Aegerter, Philippe; Backhaus, Marina; Balint, Peter; Bruyn, George A; Filippucci, Emilio; Grassi, Walter; Iagnocco, Annamaria; Jousse-Joulin, Sandrine; Kane, David; Naredo, Esperanza; Schmidt, Wolfgang; Szkudlarek, Marcin; Conaghan, Philip G; Wakefield, Richard J

    2017-01-01

    To develop a consensus-based ultrasound (US) definition and quantification system for synovitis in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A multistep, iterative approach was used to: (1) evaluate the baseline agreement on defining and scoring synovitis according to the usual practice of different sonographers, using both grey-scale (GS) (synovial hypertrophy (SH) and effusion) and power Doppler (PD), by reading static images and scanning patients with RA and (2) evaluate the influence of both the definition and acquisition technique on reliability followed by a Delphi exercise to obtain consensus definitions for synovitis, elementary components and scoring system. Baseline reliability was highly variable but better for static than dynamic images that were directly acquired and immediately scored. Using static images, intrareader and inter-reader reliability for scoring PD were excellent for both binary and semiquantitative (SQ) grading but GS showed greater variability for both scoring systems (κ ranges: -0.05 to 1 and 0.59 to 0.92, respectively). In patient-based exercise, both intraobserver and interobserver reliability were variable and the mean κ coefficients did not reach 0.50 for any of the components. The second step resulted in refinement of the preliminary Outcome Measures in Rheumatology synovitis definition by including the presence of both hypoechoic SH and PD signal and the development of a SQ severity score, depending on both the amount of PD and the volume and appearance of SH. A multistep consensus-based process has produced a standardised US definition and quantification system for RA synovitis including combined and individual SH and PD components. Further evaluation is required to understand its performance before application in clinical trials.

  1. Intelligent query by humming system based on score level fusion of multiple classifiers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyo Nam, Gi; Thu Trang Luong, Thi; Ha Nam, Hyun; Ryoung Park, Kang; Park, Sung-Joo

    2011-12-01

    Recently, the necessity for content-based music retrieval that can return results even if a user does not know information such as the title or singer has increased. Query-by-humming (QBH) systems have been introduced to address this need, as they allow the user to simply hum snatches of the tune to find the right song. Even though there have been many studies on QBH, few have combined multiple classifiers based on various fusion methods. Here we propose a new QBH system based on the score level fusion of multiple classifiers. This research is novel in the following three respects: three local classifiers [quantized binary (QB) code-based linear scaling (LS), pitch-based dynamic time warping (DTW), and LS] are employed; local maximum and minimum point-based LS and pitch distribution feature-based LS are used as global classifiers; and the combination of local and global classifiers based on the score level fusion by the PRODUCT rule is used to achieve enhanced matching accuracy. Experimental results with the 2006 MIREX QBSH and 2009 MIR-QBSH corpus databases show that the performance of the proposed method is better than that of single classifier and other fusion methods.

  2. Intelligent query by humming system based on score level fusion of multiple classifiers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Park Sung-Joo

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recently, the necessity for content-based music retrieval that can return results even if a user does not know information such as the title or singer has increased. Query-by-humming (QBH systems have been introduced to address this need, as they allow the user to simply hum snatches of the tune to find the right song. Even though there have been many studies on QBH, few have combined multiple classifiers based on various fusion methods. Here we propose a new QBH system based on the score level fusion of multiple classifiers. This research is novel in the following three respects: three local classifiers [quantized binary (QB code-based linear scaling (LS, pitch-based dynamic time warping (DTW, and LS] are employed; local maximum and minimum point-based LS and pitch distribution feature-based LS are used as global classifiers; and the combination of local and global classifiers based on the score level fusion by the PRODUCT rule is used to achieve enhanced matching accuracy. Experimental results with the 2006 MIREX QBSH and 2009 MIR-QBSH corpus databases show that the performance of the proposed method is better than that of single classifier and other fusion methods.

  3. Chi-square-based scoring function for categorization of MEDLINE citations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kastrin, A; Peterlin, B; Hristovski, D

    2010-01-01

    Text categorization has been used in biomedical informatics for identifying documents containing relevant topics of interest. We developed a simple method that uses a chi-square-based scoring function to determine the likelihood of MEDLINE citations containing genetic relevant topic. Our procedure requires construction of a genetic and a nongenetic domain document corpus. We used MeSH descriptors assigned to MEDLINE citations for this categorization task. We compared frequencies of MeSH descriptors between two corpora applying chi-square test. A MeSH descriptor was considered to be a positive indicator if its relative observed frequency in the genetic domain corpus was greater than its relative observed frequency in the nongenetic domain corpus. The output of the proposed method is a list of scores for all the citations, with the highest score given to those citations containing MeSH descriptors typical for the genetic domain. Validation was done on a set of 734 manually annotated MEDLINE citations. It achieved predictive accuracy of 0.87 with 0.69 recall and 0.64 precision. We evaluated the method by comparing it to three machine-learning algorithms (support vector machines, decision trees, naïve Bayes). Although the differences were not statistically significantly different, results showed that our chi-square scoring performs as good as compared machine-learning algorithms. We suggest that the chi-square scoring is an effective solution to help categorize MEDLINE citations. The algorithm is implemented in the BITOLA literature-based discovery support system as a preprocessor for gene symbol disambiguation process.

  4. A Web-based Peer Assessment System for Assigning Student Scores in Cooperative Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anon Sukstrienwong

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Working in groups has become increasingly important in order to develop students' skills. However, it can be more successful when peers cooperate and are involved in the assigned tasks. However, several educators firmly show disadvantages when all peers received the same reward, regardless of individual contribution. Some teachers also considering peer assessment to be time and effort consuming because preparation and monitoring are needed. In order to overcome these problems, we have developed a web-based peer assessment referred to as the ‘Scoring by Peer Assessment System’ (SPAS that allows teachers to set up the process of peer assessment, in order to assign scores that reflect the contribution of each student. Moreover, a web-based application allows students to evaluate their peers regarding their individual contribution where cooperative learning and peer assessment are used. The paper describes the system design and the implementation of our peer assessment application.

  5. Randomized clinical trial of Appendicitis Inflammatory Response score-based management of patients with suspected appendicitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, M; Kolodziej, B; Andersson, R E

    2017-10-01

    The role of imaging in the diagnosis of appendicitis is controversial. This prospective interventional study and nested randomized trial analysed the impact of implementing a risk stratification algorithm based on the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response (AIR) score, and compared routine imaging with selective imaging after clinical reassessment. Patients presenting with suspicion of appendicitis between September 2009 and January 2012 from age 10 years were included at 21 emergency surgical centres and from age 5 years at three university paediatric centres. Registration of clinical characteristics, treatments and outcomes started during the baseline period. The AIR score-based algorithm was implemented during the intervention period. Intermediate-risk patients were randomized to routine imaging or selective imaging after clinical reassessment. The baseline period included 1152 patients, and the intervention period 2639, of whom 1068 intermediate-risk patients were randomized. In low-risk patients, use of the AIR score-based algorithm resulted in less imaging (19·2 versus 34·5 per cent; P appendicitis (6·8 versus 9·7 per cent; P = 0·034). Intermediate-risk patients randomized to the imaging and observation groups had the same proportion of negative appendicectomies (6·4 versus 6·7 per cent respectively; P = 0·884), number of admissions, number of perforations and length of hospital stay, but routine imaging was associated with an increased proportion of patients treated for appendicitis (53·4 versus 46·3 per cent; P = 0·020). AIR score-based risk classification can safely reduce the use of diagnostic imaging and hospital admissions in patients with suspicion of appendicitis. Registration number: NCT00971438 ( http://www.clinicaltrials.gov). © 2017 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Mapping scores from the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) to preference-based utility values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furber, Gareth; Segal, Leonie; Leach, Matthew; Cocks, Jane

    2014-03-01

    Quality of life mapping methods such as "Transfer to Utility" can be used to translate scores on disease-specific measures to utility values, when traditional utility measurement methods (e.g. standard gamble, time trade-off, preference-based multi-attribute instruments) have not been used. The aim of this study was to generate preliminary ordinary least squares (OLS) regression-based algorithms to transform scores from the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaires (SDQ), a widely used measure of mental health in children and adolescents, to utility values obtained using the preference-based Child Health Utility (CHU9D) instrument. Two hundred caregivers of children receiving community mental health services completed the SDQ and CHU9D during a telephone interview. Two OLS regressions were run with the CHU9D utility value as the dependent variable and SDQ subscales as predictors. Resulting algorithms were validated by comparing predicted and observed group mean utility values in randomly selected subsamples. Preliminary validation was obtained for two algorithms, utilising five and three subscales of the SDQ, respectively. Root mean square error values (.124) for both models suggested poor fit at an individual level, but both algorithms performed well in predicting mean group observed utility values. This research generated algorithms for translating SDQ scores to utility values and providing researchers with an additional tool for conducting health economic evaluations with child and adolescent mental health data.

  7. Molecular Classification Substitutes for the Prognostic Variables Stage, Age, and MYCN Status in Neuroblastoma Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Rosswog

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Current risk stratification systems for neuroblastoma patients consider clinical, histopathological, and genetic variables, and additional prognostic markers have been proposed in recent years. We here sought to select highly informative covariates in a multistep strategy based on consecutive Cox regression models, resulting in a risk score that integrates hazard ratios of prognostic variables. METHODS: A cohort of 695 neuroblastoma patients was divided into a discovery set (n = 75 for multigene predictor generation, a training set (n = 411 for risk score development, and a validation set (n = 209. Relevant prognostic variables were identified by stepwise multivariable L1-penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO Cox regression, followed by backward selection in multivariable Cox regression, and then integrated into a novel risk score. RESULTS: The variables stage, age, MYCN status, and two multigene predictors, NB-th24 and NB-th44, were selected as independent prognostic markers by LASSO Cox regression analysis. Following backward selection, only the multigene predictors were retained in the final model. Integration of these classifiers in a risk scoring system distinguished three patient subgroups that differed substantially in their outcome. The scoring system discriminated patients with diverging outcome in the validation cohort (5-year event-free survival, 84.9 ± 3.4 vs 63.6 ± 14.5 vs 31.0 ± 5.4; P < .001, and its prognostic value was validated by multivariable analysis. CONCLUSION: We here propose a translational strategy for developing risk assessment systems based on hazard ratios of relevant prognostic variables. Our final neuroblastoma risk score comprised two multigene predictors only, supporting the notion that molecular properties of the tumor cells strongly impact clinical courses of neuroblastoma patients.

  8. Genomics-based Approach and Prognostic Stratification Significance of Gene Mutations in Intermediate-risk Acute Myeloid Leukemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bian-Hong Wang

    2015-01-01

    Conclusions: NGS represents a pioneering and helpful approach to prognostic risk stratification of IR-AML patients. Further large-scale studies for comprehensive molecular analysis are needed to provide guidance and a theoretical basis for IR-AML prognostic stratification and clinical management.

  9. The prognostic importance of miR-21 in stage II colon cancer: a population-based study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjaer-Frifeldt, S.; Hansen, T. F.; Nielsen, B. S.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Despite several years of research and attempts to develop prognostic models a considerable fraction of stage II colon cancer patients will experience relapse within few years from their operation. The aim of the present study was to investigate the prognostic importance of miRNA-21 (mi...

  10. Keratoconus Diagnosis with An Optical Coherence Tomography-Based Pachymetric Scoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Bing; Chen, Shihao; Brass, Robert; Li, Yan; Tang, Maolong; Zhang, Xinbo; Wang, Xiaoyu; Wang, Qinmei; Huang, David

    2014-01-01

    PURPOSE To develop an optical coherence tomography (OCT) pachymetry map based keratoconus risk scoring system. SETTING This multi-center study was conducted in Doheny Eye Institute, University of Southern California (Los Angeles, CA, USA), Department of Ophthalmology, Affiliated Eye Hospital of Wenzhou Medical College (Wenzhou, China), and Brass Eye Center (New York, NY, USA). DESIGN Prospective cross-sectional observational study. METHODS A Fourier-domain OCT was used to acquire corneal pachymetry map in normal and keratoconus subjects. Pachymetric variables were: minimum, minimum-median, superior - inferior (S-I), superonasal - inferotemporal (SN-IT), and the vertical location of the thinnest cornea (Ymin). A logistic regression formula and a scoring system were developed based on these variables. Keratoconus diagnostic accuracy was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC). RESULTS One hundred thirty-three eyes from 67 normal subjects, 84 eyes from 52 keratoconus subjects were recruited. The keratoconus logistic regression formula = 0.543 × minimum + 0.541 × (S-I) − 0.886 × (SN-IT) + 0.886 × (minimum-median) + 0.0198 × Ymin. The formula gave better diagnostic power with AROC than the best single variable (formula = 0.975, minimum = 0.942, P keratoconus risk score (0.949) was similar to that of the formula (P = 0.08). CONCLUSION The OCT corneal pachymetry map based logistic regression formula and the keratoconus risk scoring system provided high accuracy in keratoconus detection. These normal methods may be useful in keratoconus screening. PMID:24427794

  11. Personalized cardiovascular risk management linking SCORE and behaviour change to Web-based education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Selena; Abidi, Syed Sibte Raza; Cox, Jafna

    2006-01-01

    The PULSE (Personalization Using Linkages of SCORE and behaviour change readiness to web-based Education) project objectives are to generate and evaluate a web-based personalized educational intervention for the management of cardiovascular risk. The program is based on a patient profile generated by combining: (a) an electronic patient data capture template (DCT); (b) the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm; and (c) a Stage of Change determination model. The DCT inherently contains a set of evidence-based parameters for patient description and disease evaluation. The patient's stage of behaviour change determines messages consistent with the individual's change processes, decisional balance, and self-efficacy. The interventions are designed to address both medical and psychosocial aspects of risk management and, as such, we combine staged lifestyle modification materials and non-staged messages based on Canadian clinical guidelines to motivate personal risk management. The personalization decision logic is represented in Medical Logic Modules implemented in Java. An intelligent interactive system generates the personally relevant materials and delivers the education to the patient via the Web. An evaluation study will be conducted to determine whether web-based personalized educational strategies exert favourable influence on patient's interest, knowledge, and perceived compliance to the suggested lifestyle modifications.

  12. Recurrence risk of low Apgar score among term singletons: a population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ensing, Sabine; Schaaf, Jelle M; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Mol, Ben W J; Ravelli, Anita C J

    2014-09-01

    To examine the risk of recurrence of low Apgar score in a subsequent term singleton pregnancy. Population-based cohort study. The Netherlands. A total of 190,725 women with two subsequent singleton term live births between 1999 and 2007. We calculated the recurrence risk of low Apgar score after adjustment for possible confounders. Women with an elective cesarean delivery, fetus in breech presentation or a fetus with congenital anomalies were excluded. Results were reported separately for women with a vaginal delivery or a cesarean delivery at first pregnancy. Prevalence of birth asphyxia, a 5-min Apgar score Apgar score of Apgar score in the subsequent pregnancy was 1.1% (odds ratio 2.1, 95% confidence interval 1.4-3.3). This recurrence risk was present in women with a previous vaginal delivery (odds ratio 2.1, 95% confidence interval 1.2-3.5) and in women with a previous cesarean delivery (odds ratio 3.8, 95% confidence interval 1.7-8.5). Among women with a small-for-gestational-age infant in the subsequent pregnancy and a previous vaginal delivery, the recurrence risk was 4.8% (adjusted odds ratio 5.8, 95% confidence interval 2.0-16.5). Women with birth asphyxia of the first born have twice the risk of renewed asphyxia at the next birth compared to women without birth asphyxia of the first born. This should be incorporated in the risk assessment of pregnant women. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  13. The prognostic effect of ethnicity for gastric and esophageal cancer: the population-based experience in British Columbia, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shah Amil M

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Gastric and esophageal cancers are among the most lethal human malignancies. Their epidemiology is geographically diverse. This study compares the survival of gastric and esophageal cancer patients among several ethnic groups including Chinese, South Asians, Iranians and Others in British Columbia (BC, Canada. Methods Data were obtained from the population-based BC Cancer Registry for patients diagnosed with invasive esophageal and gastric cancer between 1984 and 2006. The ethnicity of patients was estimated according to their names and categorized as Chinese, South Asian, Iranian or Other. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to estimate the effect of ethnicity adjusted for patient sex and age, disease histology, tumor location, disease stage and treatment. Results The survival of gastric cancer patients was significantly different among ethnic groups. Chinese patients showed better survival compared to others in univariate and multivariate analysis. The survival of esophageal cancer patients was significantly different among ethnic groups when the data was analyzed by a univariate test (p = 0.029, but not in the Cox multivariate model adjusted for other patient and prognostic factors. Conclusions Ethnicity may represent underlying genetic factors. Such factors could influence host-tumor interactions by altering the tumor's etiology and therefore its chance of spreading. Alternatively, genetic factors may determine response to treatments. Finally, ethnicity may represent non-genetic factors that affect survival. Differences in survival by ethnicity support the importance of ethnicity as a prognostic factor, and may provide clues for the future identification of genetic or lifestyle factors that underlie these observations.

  14. Continuing Medical Education Speakers with High Evaluation Scores Use more Image-based Slides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferguson, Ian

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Although continuing medical education (CME presentations are common across health professions, it is unknown whether slide design is independently associated with audience evaluations of the speaker. Based on the conceptual framework of Mayer’s theory of multimedia learning, this study aimed to determine whether image use and text density in presentation slides are associated with overall speaker evaluations. This retrospective analysis of six sequential CME conferences (two annual emergency medicine conferences over a three-year period used a mixed linear regression model to assess whether postconference speaker evaluations were associated with image fraction (percentage of image-based slides per presentation and text density (number of words per slide. A total of 105 unique lectures were given by 49 faculty members, and 1,222 evaluations (70.1% response rate were available for analysis. On average, 47.4% (SD=25.36 of slides had at least one educationally-relevant image (image fraction. Image fraction significantly predicted overall higher evaluation scores [F(1, 100.676=6.158, p=0.015] in the mixed linear regression model. The mean (SD text density was 25.61 (8.14 words/slide but was not a significant predictor [F(1, 86.293=0.55, p=0.815]. Of note, the individual speaker [χ2 (1=2.952, p=0.003] and speaker seniority [F(3, 59.713=4.083, p=0.011] significantly predicted higher scores. This is the first published study to date assessing the linkage between slide design and CME speaker evaluations by an audience of practicing clinicians. The incorporation of images was associated with higher evaluation scores, in alignment with Mayer’s theory of multimedia learning. Contrary to this theory, however, text density showed no significant association, suggesting that these scores may be multifactorial. Professional development efforts should focus on teaching best practices in both slide design and presentation skills.

  15. Continuing Medical Education Speakers with High Evaluation Scores Use more Image-based Slides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Ian; Phillips, Andrew W; Lin, Michelle

    2017-01-01

    Although continuing medical education (CME) presentations are common across health professions, it is unknown whether slide design is independently associated with audience evaluations of the speaker. Based on the conceptual framework of Mayer's theory of multimedia learning, this study aimed to determine whether image use and text density in presentation slides are associated with overall speaker evaluations. This retrospective analysis of six sequential CME conferences (two annual emergency medicine conferences over a three-year period) used a mixed linear regression model to assess whether post-conference speaker evaluations were associated with image fraction (percentage of image-based slides per presentation) and text density (number of words per slide). A total of 105 unique lectures were given by 49 faculty members, and 1,222 evaluations (70.1% response rate) were available for analysis. On average, 47.4% (SD=25.36) of slides had at least one educationally-relevant image (image fraction). Image fraction significantly predicted overall higher evaluation scores [F(1, 100.676)=6.158, p=0.015] in the mixed linear regression model. The mean (SD) text density was 25.61 (8.14) words/slide but was not a significant predictor [F(1, 86.293)=0.55, p=0.815]. Of note, the individual speaker [χ2(1)=2.952, p=0.003] and speaker seniority [F(3, 59.713)=4.083, p=0.011] significantly predicted higher scores. This is the first published study to date assessing the linkage between slide design and CME speaker evaluations by an audience of practicing clinicians. The incorporation of images was associated with higher evaluation scores, in alignment with Mayer's theory of multimedia learning. Contrary to this theory, however, text density showed no significant association, suggesting that these scores may be multifactorial. Professional development efforts should focus on teaching best practices in both slide design and presentation skills.

  16. Interview-based versus self-reported anal incontinence using St Mark's incontinence score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johannessen, Hege Hølmo; Norderval, Stig; Stordahl, Arvid; Falk, Ragnhild Sørum; Wibe, Arne

    2017-05-25

    St Mark's incontinence score (SMIS) was originally designed and validated for use in an interview setting (iSMIS), and there is conflicting evidence for the validity of the self-administered SMIS (sSMIS). Our objective was to compare self-administered and interview-based reports of anal incontinence (AI) symptoms. A total of 147 women reported symptoms of AI on a sSMIS before inclusion in a clinical study investigating the effect of conservative treatment for AI 1 year after delivery. After clinical investigations, an iSMIS was completed by one of two consultant surgeons blinded to the sSMIS results. The correlation and agreement among the individual items of the iSMIS and the sSMIS were assessed using Spearman's rho and weighted kappa statistics, respectively. The mean iSMIS and sSMIS reported was 4.0 (SD: 3.6) and 4.3 (SD: 4.0), respectively. Spearman's rho showed a strong relationship between the two total SMIS scores (r = 0.769, n = 147, p incontinence, women reported more frequent AI symptoms on the sSMIS than on the iSMIS. The assessment of consistency among the individual items of the iSMIS and sSMIS showed substantial agreement (κ ≥ 0.60) for all items except for fair agreement for the item about formed stool incontinence (κ = 0.22), and moderate for the item about any change in lifestyle (κ = 0.5). The level of consistency between the two methods of reporting anal incontinence symptoms suggests that the St Mark's score may be used as both an interview-based and a self-administered incontinence score.

  17. Development of a novel metastatic breast cancer score based on hyaluronic acid metabolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Mezayen, Hatem A; Toson, El-Shahat A; Darwish, Hossam; Metwally, Fatheya M

    2013-03-01

    Tumor metastasis involves the dissemination of malignant cells into the basement membrane, and the vascular system contributes to the circulating pool of these markers. In this context, our aim has been focused on the development of a non-invasive score based on degradation of the backbone of glycosaminoglycans of the extracellular matrix; namely hyaluronic acid (HA), for the assessment of metastasis in patients with breast cancer. HA level was determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay; CA 15.3 was determined by microparticle enzyme immunoassay; hyaluronidase, N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase, β-glucuronidase, glucuronic acid, and glucosamine were assayed by standard colorimetric techniques in 217 patients with breast cancer. Statistical analyses were performed by logistic regression and receiver-operating characteristic analysis curves. The multivariate discriminant analysis selects a score based on absolute values of the six biochemical markers: metastatic breast cancer score (MBCS) = [1.04 (Numerical constant) + 0.003 × CA 15.3 (U/l) + 0.001 × HA (ng/ml) + 0.004 × hyaluronidase (mg N-acetyl-β-D-glucosamine/ml/18 h) + 0.001 × N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase (μmol/ml/min) + 0.026 × glucuronic acid (ng/ml) + 0.003 × glucosamine (μg/dl)]. This function correctly classified 87 % of metastatic breast cancer at cut-off value = 0.85 (i.e., great than 0.85 indicates patients with metastatic breast cancer and less than 0.85 indicates patients with non-metastatic breast cancer). MBCS is a novel, non-invasive, and simple score which can be applied to discriminate patients with metastatic breast cancer.

  18. Prognostic factors in patients with metastatic germ cell tumors who experienced treatment failure with cisplatin-based first-line chemotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorch, Anja; Beyer, Jörg; Bascoul-Mollevi, Caroline; Kramar, Andrew; Einhorn, Lawrence H; Necchi, Andrea; Massard, Christophe; De Giorgi, Ugo; Fléchon, Aude; Margolin, Kim A; Lotz, Jean-Pierre; Germa Lluch, Jose Ramon; Powles, Thomas; Kollmannsberger, Christian K

    2010-11-20

    To develop a prognostic model in patients with germ cell tumors (GCT) who experience treatment failure with cisplatin-based first-line chemotherapy. Data from 1,984 patients with GCT who progressed after at least three cisplatin-based cycles and were treated with cisplatin-based conventional-dose or carboplatin-based high-dose salvage chemotherapy was retrospectively collected from 38 centers/groups worldwide. One thousand five hundred ninety-four (80%) of 1,984 eligible patients were randomly divided into a training set of 1,067 patients (67%) and a validation set of 527 patients (33%). Seminomas were set aside for posthoc analyses. Primary end point was the 2-year progression-free survival after salvage treatment. Overall, 990 patients (62%) relapsed and 604 patients (38%) remained relapse free. Histology, primary tumor location, response, and progression-free interval after first-line treatment, as well as levels of alpha fetoprotein, human chorionic gonadotrophin, and the presence of liver, bone, or brain metastases at salvage were identified as independent prognostic variables and used to build a prognostic model in the training set. Survival rates in the training and validation set were very similar. The estimated 2-year progression-free survival rates in patients not included in the training set was 75% in very low risk, 51% in low risk, 40% in intermediate risk, 26% in high risk, and only 6% in very high-risk patients. Due to missing values in individual variables, 69 patients could not reliably be classified into one of these categories. Prognostic variables are important in patients with GCT who experienced treatment failure with cisplatin-based first-line chemotherapy and can be used to construct a prognostic model to guide salvage strategies.

  19. Prediction of pathological stage based on clinical stage, serum prostate-specific antigen, and biopsy Gleason score: Partin Tables in the contemporary era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tosoian, Jeffrey J; Chappidi, Meera; Feng, Zhaoyong; Humphreys, Elizabeth B; Han, Misop; Pavlovich, Christian P; Epstein, Jonathan I; Partin, Alan W; Trock, Bruce J

    2017-05-01

    To update the Partin Tables for prediction of pathological stage in the contemporary setting and examine trends in patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) over the past three decades. From January 2010 to October 2015, 4459 men meeting inclusion criteria underwent RP and pelvic lymphadenectomy for histologically confirmed prostate cancer at the Johns Hopkins Hospital. Preoperative clinical stage, serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, and biopsy Gleason score (i.e. prognostic Grade Group) were used in a polychotomous logistic regression model to predict the probability of pathological outcomes categorised as: organ-confined (OC), extraprostatic extension (EPE), seminal vesicle involvement (SV+), or lymph node involvement (LN+). Preoperative characteristics and pathological findings in men treated with RP since 1983 were collected and clinical-pathological trends were described. The median (range) age at surgery was 60 (34-77) years and the median (range) PSA level was 4.9 (0.1-125.0) ng/mL. The observed probabilities of pathological outcomes were: OC disease in 74%, EPE in 20%, SV+ in 4%, and LN+ in 2%. The probability of EPE increased substantially when biopsy Gleason score increased from 6 (Grade Group 1, GG1) to 3 + 4 (GG2), with smaller increases for higher grades. The probability of LN+ was substantially higher for biopsy Gleason score 9-10 (GG5) as compared to lower Gleason scores. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for binary logistic models predicting EPE, SV+, and LN+ vs OC were 0.724, 0.856, and 0.918, respectively. The proportion of men treated with biopsy Gleason score ≤6 cancer (GG1) was 47%, representing a substantial decrease from 63% in the previous cohort and 77% in 2000-2005. The proportion of men with OC cancer has remained similar during that time, equalling 73-74% overall. The proportions of men with SV+ (4.1% from 3.4%) and LN+ (2.3% from 1.4%) increased relative to the preceding era for the first time

  20. Enhancing the Value of Population-Based Risk Scores for Institutional-Level Use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raza, Sajjad; Sabik, Joseph F; Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Idrees, Jay J; Trezzi, Matteo; Riaz, Haris; Javadikasgari, Hoda; Nowicki, Edward R; Svensson, Lars G; Blackstone, Eugene H

    2016-07-01

    We hypothesized that factors associated with an institution's residual risk unaccounted for by population-based models may be identifiable and used to enhance the value of population-based risk scores for quality improvement. From January 2000 to January 2010, 4,971 patients underwent aortic valve replacement (AVR), either isolated (n = 2,660) or with concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (AVR+CABG; n = 2,311). Operative mortality and major morbidity and mortality predicted by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk models were compared with observed values. After adjusting for patients' STS score, additional and refined risk factors were sought to explain residual risk. Differences between STS model coefficients (risk-factor strength) and those specific to our institution were calculated. Observed operative mortality was less than predicted for AVR (1.6% [42 of 2,660] vs 2.8%, p risk factors, and body surface area, creatinine, glomerular filtration rate, blood urea nitrogen, and heart failure across all levels of functional class were identified as refined risk-factor variables associated with residual risk. In many instances, risk-factor strength differed substantially from that of STS models. Scores derived from population-based models can be enhanced for institutional level use by adjusting for institution-specific additional and refined risk factors. Identifying these and measuring differences in institution-specific versus population-based risk-factor strength can identify areas to target for quality improvement initiatives. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Face Recognition Performance Improvement using a Similarity Score of Feature Vectors based on Probabilistic Histograms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SRIKOTE, G.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an improved performance algorithm of face recognition to identify two face mismatch pairs in cases of incorrect decisions. The primary feature of this method is to deploy the similarity score with respect to Gaussian components between two previously unseen faces. Unlike the conventional classical vector distance measurement, our algorithms also consider the plot of summation of the similarity index versus face feature vector distance. A mixture of Gaussian models of labeled faces is also widely applicable to different biometric system parameters. By comparative evaluations, it has been shown that the efficiency of the proposed algorithm is superior to that of the conventional algorithm by an average accuracy of up to 1.15% and 16.87% when compared with 3x3 Multi-Region Histogram (MRH direct-bag-of-features and Principal Component Analysis (PCA-based face recognition systems, respectively. The experimental results show that similarity score consideration is more discriminative for face recognition compared to feature distance. Experimental results of Labeled Face in the Wild (LFW data set demonstrate that our algorithms are suitable for real applications probe-to-gallery identification of face recognition systems. Moreover, this proposed method can also be applied to other recognition systems and therefore additionally improves recognition scores.

  2. An Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy TOPSIS Method Based on an Improved Score Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-yong Bai

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an improved score function for the effective ranking order of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs and an interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy TOPSIS method based on the score function to solve multicriteria decision-making problems in which all the preference information provided by decision-makers is expressed as interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrices where each of the elements is characterized by IVIFS value and the information about criterion weights is known. We apply the proposed score function to calculate the separation measures of each alternative from the positive and negative ideal solutions to determine the relative closeness coefficients. According to the values of the closeness coefficients, the alternatives can be ranked and the most desirable one(s can be selected in the decision-making process. Finally, two illustrative examples for multicriteria fuzzy decision-making problems of alternatives are used as a demonstration of the applications and the effectiveness of the proposed decision-making method.

  3. Development of a physics-based force field for the scoring and refinement of protein models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wroblewska, Liliana; Jagielska, Anna; Skolnick, Jeffrey

    2008-04-15

    The minimal requirements of a physics-based potential that can refine protein structures are the existence of a correlation between the energy with native similarity and the scoring of the native structure as the lowest in energy. To develop such a force field, the relative weights of the Amber ff03 all-atom potential supplemented by an explicit hydrogen-bond potential were adjusted by global optimization of energetic and structural criteria for a large set of protein decoys generated for a set of 58 nonhomologous proteins. The average correlation coefficient of the energy with TM-score significantly improved from 0.25 for the original ff03 potential to 0.65 for the optimized force field. The fraction of proteins for which the native structure had lowest energy increased from 0.22 to 0.90. Moreover, use of an explicit hydrogen-bond potential improves scoring performance of the force field. Promising preliminary results were obtained in applying the optimized potentials to refine protein decoys using only an energy criterion to choose the best decoy among sampled structures. For a set of seven proteins, 63% of the decoys improve, 18% get worse, and 19% are not changed.

  4. The need for additional genetic markers for MDS stratification: what does the future hold for prognostication?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otrock, Zaher K.; Tiu, Ramon V.; Maciejewski, Jaroslaw P.; Sekeres, Mikkael A.

    2013-01-01

    Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) constitute a heterogeneous group of clonal hematopoietic disorders. Metaphase cytogenetics (MC) has been the gold standard for genetic testing in MDS, but it can detect clonal cytogenetic abnormalities in only 50% of cases. New karyotyping tests include fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), array-based comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH), and single nucleotide polymorphism arrays (SNP-A). These techniques have increased the detected genetic abnormalities in MDS, many of which confer prognostic significance to overall and leukemia-free survival. This has eventually increased our understanding of MDS genetics. With the help of new technologies, we anticipate that the existing prognostic scoring systems will incorporate mutational data into their parameters. This review discusses the progress in MDS diagnosis through the use of array-based technologies. We also discuss the recently investigated genetic mutation in MDS, and revisit the MDS classification and prognostic scoring systems. PMID:23373781

  5. Prognostic Significance of Combination of Preoperative Platelet Count and Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio (COP-NLR in Patients with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Based on a Large Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Zhang

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic significance of the combination of the preoperative platelet count and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (COP-NLR for predicting postoperative survival of patients undergoing complete resection for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC.The preoperative COP-NLR was calculated on the basis of data obtained.Patients with both an increased platelet count (>30.0 × 104 mm(-3 and an elevated NLR (>2.3 were assigned a score of 2, and patients with one or neither were assigned as a score of 1 or 0, respectively.A total of 1238 NSCLC patients were enrolled in this analysis. Multivariate analysis using the 15 clinicolaboratory variables selected by univariate analyses demonstrated that the preoperative COP-NLR was an independent prognostic factor for DFS (HR: 1.834, 95%CI: 1.536 to 2.200, P<0.001 and OS (HR: 1.810, 95%CI: 1.587 to 2.056, P<0.001. In sub-analyses by tumor stage (I, II, IIIA, a significant association was found between DFS and OS and level of COP-NLR in each subgroup (P<0.001, P=0.002, P<0.001 for DFS, respectively; P<0.001, P=0.001, P<0.001 for OS. When the subgroup of patients with high-risk COP-NLR (score of 2 was analyzed, no benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy could be found (P=0.237 for DFS and P=0.165 for OS.The preoperative COP-NLR is able to predict the prognosis of patients with NSCLC and divide these patients into three independent groups before surgery. Our results also demonstrate that high-risk patients based on the COP-NLR do not benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. Independent validation of our findings is warranted.

  6. Two-step calibration method for multi-algorithm score-based face recognition systems by minimizing discrimination loss

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Susyanto, N.; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.; Spreeuwers, Lieuwe Jan; Klaassen, C.A.J.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new method for combining multi-algorithm score-based face recognition systems, which we call the two-step calibration method. Typically, algorithms for face recognition systems produce dependent scores. The two-step method is based on parametric copulas to handle this dependence. Its

  7. Scoring in genetically modified organism proficiency tests based on log-transformed results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Michael; Ellison, Stephen L R; Owen, Linda; Mathieson, Kenneth; Powell, Joanne; Key, Pauline; Wood, Roger; Damant, Andrew P

    2006-01-01

    The study considers data from 2 UK-based proficiency schemes and includes data from a total of 29 rounds and 43 test materials over a period of 3 years. The results from the 2 schemes are similar and reinforce each other. The amplification process used in quantitative polymerase chain reaction determinations predicts a mixture of normal, binomial, and lognormal distributions dominated by the latter 2. As predicted, the study results consistently follow a positively skewed distribution. Log-transformation prior to calculating z-scores is effective in establishing near-symmetric distributions that are sufficiently close to normal to justify interpretation on the basis of the normal distribution.

  8. Predicting brain structure in population-based samples with biologically informed genetic scores for schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Auwera, Sandra; Wittfeld, Katharina; Shumskaya, Elena; Bralten, Janita; Zwiers, Marcel P; Onnink, A Marten H; Usberti, Niccolo; Hertel, Johannes; Völzke, Henry; Völker, Uwe; Hosten, Norbert; Franke, Barbara; Grabe, Hans J

    2017-04-01

    Schizophrenia is associated with brain structural abnormalities including gray and white matter volume reductions. Whether these alterations are caused by genetic risk variants for schizophrenia is unclear. Previous attempts to detect associations between polygenic factors for schizophrenia and structural brain phenotypes in healthy subjects have been negative or remain non-replicated. In this study, we used genetic risk scores that were based on the accumulated effect of selected risk variants for schizophrenia belonging to specific biological systems like synaptic function, neurodevelopment, calcium signaling, and glutamatergic neurotransmission. We hypothesized that this "biologically informed" approach would provide the missing link between genetic risk for schizophrenia and brain structural phenotypes. We applied whole-brain voxel-based morphometry (VBM) analyses in two population-based target samples and subsequent regions of interest (ROIs) analyses in an independent replication sample (total N = 2725). No consistent association between the genetic scores and brain volumes were observed in the investigated samples. These results suggest that in healthy subjects with a higher genetic risk for schizophrenia additional factors apart from common genetic variants (e.g., infection, trauma, rare genetic variants, or gene-gene interactions) are required to induce structural abnormalities of the brain. Further studies are recommended to test for possible gene-gene or gene-environment effects. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Combined time-varying forecast based on the proper scoring approach for wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Xingying; Jiang, Yu; Yu, Kun

    2017-01-01

    Compared with traditional point forecasts, combined forecast have been proposed as an effective method to provide more accurate forecasts than individual model. However, the literature and research focus on wind-power combined forecasts are relatively limited. Here, based on forecasting error dis...... demonstrate that the proposed method improves the accuracy of overall forecasts, even compared with a numerical weather prediction.......Compared with traditional point forecasts, combined forecast have been proposed as an effective method to provide more accurate forecasts than individual model. However, the literature and research focus on wind-power combined forecasts are relatively limited. Here, based on forecasting error...... distribution, a proper scoring approach is applied to combine plausible models to form an overall time-varying model for the next day forecasts, rather than weights-based combination. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, real data of 3 years were used for testing. Simulation results...

  10. Prognostication of traumatic brain injury outcomes in older trauma patients: A novel risk assessment tool based on initial cranial CT findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stawicki, Stanislaw P; Wojda, Thomas R; Nuschke, John D; Mubang, Ronnie N; Cipolla, James; Hoff, William S; Hoey, Brian A; Thomas, Peter G; Sweeney, Joan; Ackerman, Daniel; Hosey, Jonathan; Falowski, Steven

    2017-01-01

    Advanced age has been traditionally associated with worse traumatic brain injury (TBI) outcomes. Although prompt neurosurgical intervention (NSI, craniotomy or craniectomy) may be life-saving in the older trauma patient, it does not guarantee survival and/or return to preinjury functional status. The aim of this study was to determine whether a simple score, based entirely on the initial cranial computed tomography (CCT) is predictive of the need for NSI and key outcome measures (e.g., morbidity and mortality) in the older (age 45+ years) TBI patient subset. We hypothesized that increasing number of categorical CCT findings is independently associated with NSI, morbidity, and mortality in older patients with severe TBI. After IRB approval, a retrospective study of patients 45 years and older was performed using our Regional Level 1 Trauma Center registry data between June 2003 and December 2013. Collected variables included patient demographics, Injury Severity Score (ISS), Abbreviated Injury Scale Head (AISh), brain injury characteristics on CCT, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and hospital length of stay (LOS), all-cause morbidity and mortality, functional independence scores, as well as discharge disposition. A novel CCT scoring tool (CCTST, scored from 1 to 8+) was devised, with one point given for each of the following findings: subdural hematoma, epidural hematoma, subarachnoid blood, intraventricular blood, cerebral contusion/intraparenchymal blood, skull fracture, pneumocephalus, brain edema/herniation, midline shift, and external (skin/face) trauma. Descriptive statistics and univariate analyses were conducted with 30-day mortality, in-hospital morbidity, and need for NSI as primary end-points. Secondary end-points included the length of stay in the ICU (ICULOS), step-down unit (SDLOS), and the hospital (HLOS) as well as patient functional outcomes, and postdischarge destination. Factors associated with the need for NSI were determined

  11. Mortality Following Congenital Heart Surgery in Adults Can Be Predicted Accurately by Combining Expert-Based and Evidence-Based Pediatric Risk Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hörer, Jürgen; Kasnar-Samprec, Jelena; Cleuziou, Julie; Strbad, Martina; Wottke, Michael; Kaemmerer, Harald; Schreiber, Christian; Lange, Rüdiger

    2016-07-01

    Currently, there are few specific risk stratification models available to predict mortality following congenital heart surgery in adults. We sought to evaluate whether the predictive power of the common pediatric scores is applicable for adults. In addition, we evaluated a new grown-ups with congenital heart disease (GUCH) score specifically designed for adults undergoing congenital heart surgery. Data of all consecutive patients aged 18 years or more, who underwent surgery for congenital heart disease (CHD) between 2004 and 2013 at our institution, were collected. We evaluated the Aristotle Basic Complexity (ABC), the Aristotle Comprehensive Complexity (ACC), the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1), and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS)-European Association for Cardiothoracic Surgery (EACTS) scores. The proposed GUCH score consists of the STS-EACTS score, the procedure-dependent and -independent factors of the ACC score, and age. The discriminatory power of the scores was assessed using the area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (c-index). A total of 830 operations were evaluated. Hospital mortality was 2.9%. C-indexes were 0.67, 0.80, 0.62, 0.78, and 0.84 for the ABC, ACC, RACHS-1, STS-EACTS, and GUCH mortality scores, respectively. The evidence-based EACTS-STS score outperforms the expert-based ABC score. The expert-based ACC score is superior to the evidence-based EACTS-STS score since comorbidities are considered. Our proposed GUCH score outperforms all other scores since it integrates the advantages of the evidence-based EACTS-STS score for procedures and the expert-based ACC score for comorbidities. Evidence-based scores for adults with CHD should include comorbidities and patient ages. © The Author(s) 2016.

  12. Difference of achalasia subtypes based on clinical symptoms, radiographic findings, and stasis scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meillier, A; Midani, D; Caroline, D; Saadi, M; Parkman, H; Schey, R

    Three subtypes of achalasia have been defined through high-resolution esophageal manometry: subtype i shows no pressurization with swallows, subtype ii has increased isobaric panesophageal pressure, and subtype iii has distal esophageal spastic non-isobaric contractions. Studies describing the subtypes based on radiographic findings, clinical symptoms, and stasis scores are limited. To determine the differences in clinical symptoms, radiographic findings, and stasis scores for the 3 achalasia subtypes. Patients undergoing high-resolution esophageal manometry received a questionnaire about current symptoms and previous treatments. The questions included the presence of symptoms and their severity. Barium swallow tests were performed before the high-resolution esophageal manometry study to evaluate the maximum esophageal diameter. Stasis scores were calculated using the transit patterns on high-resolution esophageal manometry. One hundred and eight patients with high-resolution esophageal manometry diagnosis of achalasia (n=8, subtype i; n=84, subtype ii; n=16, subtype iii) within the time frame of 1/2012-6/2015 were included in the study. Sex distribution was similar between the subtypes. Patient age was younger for subtype i (38±16 years), compared with subtypes ii (55±17 years) and iii (63±17 years) (P=.03). Esophageal symptoms did not differ between subtypes regarding the severity of nausea, chest pain, coughing, and heartburn, except for increased vomiting severity in subtype i (2.8±1.4 vs. 1.4±1.4 vs. 1.2±1.2, P<.01). A significant radiographic difference in esophageal dilation was seen between subtypes ii and iii (35.1±14.4 vs. 24.0±7.2mm, P=.023). Stasis scores did not significantly differ between the subtypes. Achalasia subtypes had similar clinical symptoms, except for increased vomiting severity in subtype i. The maximum esophageal diameter in subtype ii was significantly greater than in subtype iii. Esophageal stasis scores were similar. Thus

  13. Radiation therapy for chordoma and chondrosarcoma of the skull base and the cervical spine. Prognostic factors and patterns of failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noel, G.; Jauffret, E.; Mammar, H.; Ferrand, R. [Centre de Protontherapie d' Orsay, Orsay (France); Habrand, J.L.; Crevoisier, R. de; Haie-Meder, C.; Beaudre, A. [Inst. Gustave Roussy, Villejuif (France); Dederke, S.; Hasboun, D.; Boisserie, G. [Groupe Pitie Salpetriere, AP-HP, Paris (France); Pontvert, D.; Gaboriaud, G. [Inst. Curie, Paris (France); Guedea, F.; Petriz, L. [Catalan Inst. of Oncology, Barcelona (Spain); Mazeron, J.J. [Centre de Protontherapie d' Orsay, Orsay (France); Groupe Pitie Salpetriere, AP-HP, Paris (France)

    2003-04-01

    Background: Prospective analysis of local tumor control, survival and treatment complications in 67 consecutive patients treated with fractionated photon and proton radiation for chordoma or chondrosarcoma of the base of the skull and the cervical spine. Patients and Methods: Between December 1995 and January 2000, 67 patients with a median age of 52 years (range: 14-85 years), were treated at the Centre de Protontherapie d'Orsay (CPO), France, using the 201-MeV proton beam, 49 for chordoma and 18 for chondrosarcoma. Irradiation combined high-energy photons and protons. Photons represented two thirds of the total dose and protons one third. The median total dose delivered within gross tumor volume (GTV) was 67 cobalt gray equivalents (CGE; range: 60-70 CGE). Results: Within a median follow-up of 29 months (range: 4-71 months), the 3-year local control rates were 71% and 85% for chordomas and chondrosarcomas, respectively, and the 3-year overall survival rates 88% and 75%, respectively. 14 tumors (21.5%) failed locally (eight within the GTV, four within the clinical target volume [CTV], and two without further assessment). Seven patients died from their tumor and another one from a nonrelated condition (pulmonary embolism). The maximum tumor diameter and, similarly, the GTV were larger in relapsing patients, compared with the rest of the population: 56 mm vs 44 mm (p = 0.024) and 50 ml vs 22 ml (p = 0.0083), respectively. In univariate analysis, age {<=} 52 years at the time of radiotherapy (p = 0.002), maximum diameter < 45 mm (p = 0.02), and GTV < 28 ml (p = 0.02) impacted positively on local control. On multivariate analysis, only age was an independent prognostic factor of local control. Conclusion: In chordomas and chondrosarcomas of the skull base and cervical spine, combined photon and proton radiation therapy offers excellent chances of cure. In two thirds of the cases, relapses are located in the GTV. Maximum diameter, GTV, and age are prognostic

  14. Prognostic implication of HSPA (HSP70) in breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant anthracycline-based chemotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadin, Silvina B; Sottile, Mayra L; Montt-Guevara, Maria M; Gauna, Gisel V; Daguerre, Pedro; Leuzzi, Marcela; Gago, Francisco E; Ibarra, Jorge; Cuello-Carrión, F Darío; Ciocca, Daniel R; Vargas-Roig, Laura M

    2014-07-01

    Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is used in patients with locally advanced breast cancer to reduce tumor size before surgery. Unfortunately, resistance to chemotherapy may arise from a variety of mechanisms. Heat shock proteins (HSPs), which are highly expressed in mammary tumor cells, have been implicated in anticancer drug resistance. In spite of the widely described value of HSPs as molecular markers in cancer, their implications in breast tumors treated with anthracycline-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy has been poorly explored. In this study, we have evaluated, by immunohistochemistry, the expression of HSP27 (HSPB1) and HSP70 (HSPA) in serial biopsies from locally advanced breast cancer patients (n = 60) treated with doxorubicin (DOX)- or epirubicin (EPI)-based monochemotherapy. Serial biopsies were taken at days 1, 3, 7, and 21, and compared with prechemotherapy and surgical biopsies. After surgery, the patients received additional chemotherapy with cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and 5-fluorouracil. High nuclear HSPB1 and HSPA expressions were found in invasive cells after DOX/EPI administration (P 31 % of the cells) and cytoplasmic HSPA expressions (>11 % of the tumor cells) were associated with better DFS (P = 0.0348 and P = 0.0118, respectively). We conclude that HSPA expression may be a useful prognostic marker in breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant DOX/EPI chemotherapy indicating the need to change the administered drugs after surgery for overcoming drug resistance.

  15. Microarray-based identification of CUB-domain containing protein 1 as a potential prognostic marker in conventional renal cell carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awakura, Yasuo; Nakamura, Eijiro; Takahashi, Takeshi; Kotani, Hirokazu; Mikami, Yoshiki; Kadowaki, Tadashi; Myoumoto, Akira; Akiyama, Hideo; Ito, Noriyuki; Kamoto, Toshiyuki; Manabe, Toshiaki; Nobumasa, Hitoshi; Tsujimoto, Gozoh; Ogawa, Osamu

    2008-12-01

    Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is characterized by a variable and unpredictable clinical course. Thus, accurate prediction of the prognosis is important in clinical settings. We conducted microarray-based study to identify a novel prognostic marker in conventional RCC. The present study included the patients surgically treated at Kyoto University Hospital. Gene expression profiling of 39 samples was carried out to select candidate prognostic markers. Quantitative real-time PCR of 65 samples confirmed the microarray experiment results. Finally, we evaluated the significance of potential markers at their protein expression level by immunohistochemically analyzing 230 conventional RCC patients. Using expression profiling analysis, we identified 14 candidate genes whose expression levels predicted unfavorable disease-specific survival. Next, we examined the expression levels of nine candidate genes by quantitative real-time PCR and selected CUB-domain containing protein 1 (CDCP1) for further immunohistochemical analysis. Positive staining for CDCP1 inversely correlated with disease-specific and recurrence-free survivals. In multivariate analysis including clinical/pathological factors, CDCP1 staining was a significant predictor of disease-specific and recurrence-free survivals. We identified CDCP1 as a potential prognostic marker for conventional RCC. Further studies might be required to confirm the prognostic value of CDCP1 and to understand its function in RCC progression.

  16. Neutrosophic Similarity Score Based Weighted Histogram for Robust Mean-Shift Tracking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keli Hu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Visual object tracking is a critical task in computer vision. Challenging things always exist when an object needs to be tracked. For instance, background clutter is one of the most challenging problems. The mean-shift tracker is quite popular because of its efficiency and performance in a range of conditions. However, the challenge of background clutter also disturbs its performance. In this article, we propose a novel weighted histogram based on neutrosophic similarity score to help the mean-shift tracker discriminate the target from the background. Neutrosophic set (NS is a new branch of philosophy for dealing with incomplete, indeterminate, and inconsistent information. In this paper, we utilize the single valued neutrosophic set (SVNS, which is a subclass of NS to improve the mean-shift tracker. First, two kinds of criteria are considered as the object feature similarity and the background feature similarity, and each bin of the weight histogram is represented in the SVNS domain via three membership functions T(Truth, I(indeterminacy, and F(Falsity. Second, the neutrosophic similarity score function is introduced to fuse those two criteria and to build the final weight histogram. Finally, a novel neutrosophic weighted mean-shift tracker is proposed. The proposed tracker is compared with several mean-shift based trackers on a dataset of 61 public sequences. The results revealed that our method outperforms other trackers, especially when confronting background clutter.

  17. Orientation-based face recognition using multispectral imagery and score fusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yufeng

    2011-11-01

    A new orientation-based face recognition method is proposed in this paper. The orientation analysis is performed with Gabor wavelet transform (GWT). The multispectral imagery includes the visible (RGB) and thermal (long-wave infrared) face images from the same group of subjects. The recognition performance of the new method is compared with that of three classical algorithms, principle component analysis, linear discriminant analysis, and elastic bunch graph matching. A score-level fusion of several algorithms versus multispectral images is explored and presented. Specifically, at each frequency band of GWT, an index number representing the strongest orientational response is selected, and then encoded in a binary number to favor the Hamming distance calculation. Multiple-band orientation codes are then organized into a face pattern byte (FPB) by using order statistics. With the FPB, Hamming distances are calculated and compared to achieve face identification. The FPB has the dimensionality of 8 bits per pixel and its performance will be compared to that of face pattern word (32 bits per pixel). The dimensionality of FPB can be further reduced down to 4 bits per pixel, called face pattern nibble. Experimental results with the multispectral faces of 96 subjects show that the proposed orientation-based face recognition method is very promising in contrast with three classical methods. Furthermore, the recognition performance with score-level fusion achieves 100% when tested on the entire multispectral database.

  18. A desirability function-based scoring scheme for selecting fragment-like class A aminergic GPCR ligands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelemen, Ádám A.; Ferenczy, György G.; Keserű, György M.

    2015-01-01

    A physicochemical property-based desirability scoring scheme for fragment-based drug discovery was developed for class A aminergic GPCR targeted fragment libraries. Physicochemical property distributions of known aminergic GPCR-active fragments from the ChEMBL database were examined and used for a desirability function-based score. Property-distributions such as log D (at pH 7.4), PSA, pKa (strongest basic center), number of nitrogen atoms, number of oxygen atoms, and the number of rotatable bonds were combined into a desirability score (FrAGS). The validation of the scoring scheme was carried out using both public and proprietary experimental screening data. The scoring scheme is suitable for the design of aminergic GPCR targeted fragment libraries and might be useful for preprocessing fragments before structure based virtual or wet screening.

  19. Rapid Design of Knowledge-Based Scoring Potentials for Enrichment of Near-Native Geometries in Protein-Protein Docking.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Sasse

    Full Text Available Protein-protein docking protocols aim to predict the structures of protein-protein complexes based on the structure of individual partners. Docking protocols usually include several steps of sampling, clustering, refinement and re-scoring. The scoring step is one of the bottlenecks in the performance of many state-of-the-art protocols. The performance of scoring functions depends on the quality of the generated structures and its coupling to the sampling algorithm. A tool kit, GRADSCOPT (GRid Accelerated Directly SCoring OPTimizing, was designed to allow rapid development and optimization of different knowledge-based scoring potentials for specific objectives in protein-protein docking. Different atomistic and coarse-grained potentials can be created by a grid-accelerated directly scoring dependent Monte-Carlo annealing or by a linear regression optimization. We demonstrate that the scoring functions generated by our approach are similar to or even outperform state-of-the-art scoring functions for predicting near-native solutions. Of additional importance, we find that potentials specifically trained to identify the native bound complex perform rather poorly on identifying acceptable or medium quality (near-native solutions. In contrast, atomistic long-range contact potentials can increase the average fraction of near-native poses by up to a factor 2.5 in the best scored 1% decoys (compared to existing scoring, emphasizing the need of specific docking potentials for different steps in the docking protocol.

  20. Rapid Design of Knowledge-Based Scoring Potentials for Enrichment of Near-Native Geometries in Protein-Protein Docking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasse, Alexander; de Vries, Sjoerd J.; Schindler, Christina E. M.; de Beauchêne, Isaure Chauvot

    2017-01-01

    Protein-protein docking protocols aim to predict the structures of protein-protein complexes based on the structure of individual partners. Docking protocols usually include several steps of sampling, clustering, refinement and re-scoring. The scoring step is one of the bottlenecks in the performance of many state-of-the-art protocols. The performance of scoring functions depends on the quality of the generated structures and its coupling to the sampling algorithm. A tool kit, GRADSCOPT (GRid Accelerated Directly SCoring OPTimizing), was designed to allow rapid development and optimization of different knowledge-based scoring potentials for specific objectives in protein-protein docking. Different atomistic and coarse-grained potentials can be created by a grid-accelerated directly scoring dependent Monte-Carlo annealing or by a linear regression optimization. We demonstrate that the scoring functions generated by our approach are similar to or even outperform state-of-the-art scoring functions for predicting near-native solutions. Of additional importance, we find that potentials specifically trained to identify the native bound complex perform rather poorly on identifying acceptable or medium quality (near-native) solutions. In contrast, atomistic long-range contact potentials can increase the average fraction of near-native poses by up to a factor 2.5 in the best scored 1% decoys (compared to existing scoring), emphasizing the need of specific docking potentials for different steps in the docking protocol. PMID:28118389

  1. The association between mammographic calcifications and breast cancer prognostic factors in a population-based registry cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyante, Sarah J; Lee, Sheila S; Benefield, Thad S; Hoots, Tiffany N; Henderson, Louise M

    2017-01-01

    Mammographic calcifications can be a marker of malignancy, but their association with prognosis is less well established. In the current study, the authors examined the relationship between calcifications and breast cancer prognostic factors in the population-based Carolina Mammography Registry. The current study included 8472 invasive breast cancers diagnosed in the Carolina Mammography Registry between 1996 and 2011 for which information regarding calcifications occurring within 2 years of diagnosis was reported. Calcification-specific Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) assessments were reported prospectively by a radiologist. Tumor characteristic data were obtained from the North Carolina Central Cancer Registry and/or pathology reports. Multivariable-adjusted associations between the presence of calcifications in the breast affected by cancer and tumor characteristics were estimated using logistic regression. Statistical tests were 2-sided. The presence of calcifications was found to be positively associated with tumors that were high grade (vs low grade: odds ratio [OR], 1.43; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.10-1.88) or had an in situ component (vs without: OR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.81-2.55). Calcifications were found to be inversely associated with hormone receptor-negative status (vs positive status: OR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.57-0.93), size >35 mm (vs ≤8 mm: OR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.37-0.61), and lobular tumors (vs ductal: OR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.22-0.69). The association between the presence of calcifications and an in situ component was limited to BI-RADS category 4 and 5 calcifications and was absent for BI-RADS category 2 or 3 calcifications (P for heterogeneity association with tumor size was found to be strongest for BI-RADS categories 3 and 4 (P for heterogeneity associated with both unfavorable (high grade) and favorable (small size, hormone receptor positivity) prognostic factors. Detailed analysis of the biological features of

  2. Learning material recommendation based on case-based reasoning similarity scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masood, Mona; Mokmin, Nur Azlina Mohamed

    2017-10-01

    A personalized learning material recommendation is important in any Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS). Case-based Reasoning (CBR) is an Artificial Intelligent Algorithm that has been widely used in the development of ITS applications. This study has developed an ITS application that applied the CBR algorithm in the development process. The application has the ability to recommend the most suitable learning material to the specific student based on information in the student profile. In order to test the ability of the application in recommending learning material, two versions of the application were created. The first version displayed the most suitable learning material and the second version displayed the least preferable learning material. The results show the application has successfully assigned the students to the most suitable learning material.

  3. Increased correlation coefficient between the written test score and tutors' performance test scores after training of tutors for assessment of medical students during problem-based learning course in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiprakash, Heethal; Min, Aung Ko Ko; Ghosh, Sarmishtha

    2016-03-01

    This paper is aimed at finding if there was a change of correlation between the written test score and tutors' performance test scores in the assessment of medical students during a problem-based learning (PBL) course in Malaysia. This is a cross-sectional observational study, conducted among 264 medical students in two groups from November 2010 to November 2012. The first group's tutors did not receive tutor training; while the second group's tutors were trained in the PBL process. Each group was divided into high, middle and low achievers based on their end-of-semester exam scores. PBL scores were taken which included written test scores and tutors' performance test scores. Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated between the two kinds of scores in each group. The correlation coefficient between the written scores and tutors' scores in group 1 was 0.099 (ptraining reinforces the importance of tutor training before their participation in the PBL course.

  4. Identification and prognostic value of anterior gradient protein 2 expression in breast cancer based on tissue microarray.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jilong; Gong, Guohua; Zhang, Bin

    2017-07-01

    Breast cancer has attracted substantial attention as one of the major cancers causing death in women. It is crucial to find potential biomarkers of prognostic value in breast cancer. In this study, the expression pattern of anterior gradient protein 2 in breast cancer was identified based on the main molecular subgroups. Through analysis of 69 samples from the Gene Expression Omnibus database, we found that anterior gradient protein 2 expression was significantly higher in non-triple-negative breast cancer tissues compared with normal tissues and triple-negative breast cancer tissues (p Cancer Genome Atlas were analysed. The data from The Cancer Genome Atlas and results from quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction also verified the anterior gradient protein 2 expression pattern. Furthermore, we performed immunohistochemical analysis. The quantification results revealed that anterior gradient protein 2 is highly expressed in non-triple-negative breast cancer (grade 3 excluded) and grade 1 + 2 (triple-negative breast cancer excluded) tumours compared with normal tissues. Anterior gradient protein 2 was significantly highly expressed in non-triple-negative breast cancer (grade 3 excluded) and non-triple-negative breast cancer tissues compared with triple-negative breast cancer tissues (p breast cancer excluded) and grade 1 + 2 tissues compared with grade 3 tissues (p breast cancer and can be regarded as a putative biomarker for breast cancer prognosis.

  5. Hospital Value-Based Purchasing (HVBP) – Total Performance Score

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — A list of hospitals participating in the Hospital VBP Program and their Clinical Process of Care domain scores, Patient Experience of Care dimension scores, and...

  6. Dynamic assessment of RBC-transfusion dependency improves the prognostic value of the revised-IPSS in MDS patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiwase, Devendra K; Singhal, Deepak; Strupp, Corinna; Chhetri, Rakchha; Kutyna, Monika M; Wee, L Amilia; Harrison, Peter B; Nath, Shriram V; Wickham, Nicholas; Hui, Chi-Hung; Gray, James X; Bardy, Peter; Ross, David M; Lewis, Ian D; Reynolds, John; To, L Bik; Germing, Ulrich

    2017-06-01

    RBC-transfusion dependency (RBC-TD) is an independent prognostic factor for poor overall survival (OS) in the WHO classification-based prognostic scoring system (WPSS) for MDS patients. However, WPSS did not include cytopenia, whereas revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) did not include RBC-TD. Thus, neither of these prognostic scoring systems incorporates both cytopenia and RBC-TD. We aimed to test whether RBC-TD adds prognostic value to the IPSS-R. We analyzed MDS patients not treated with disease-modifying therapy, and enrolled in SA-MDS Registry (derivation cohort; n = 295) and Dusseldorf registry (Germany; validation cohort; n = 113) using time-dependent Cox proportional regression and serial landmark analyses. In the derivation cohort, RBC-TD patients had inferior OS compared to RBC transfusion-independent (RBC-TI) patients (P MDS is associated with poor OS, independent of IPSS-R. This study demonstrates that dynamic assessment of RBC-TD provides additional prognostic value to IPSS-R and should be included in treatment decision algorithms for MDS patients. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. A novel white blood cells segmentation algorithm based on adaptive neutrosophic similarity score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahin, A I; Guo, Yanhui; Amin, K M; Sharawi, Amr A

    2018-12-01

    White blood cells (WBCs) play a crucial role in the diagnosis of many diseases according to their numbers or morphology. The recent digital pathology equipments investigate and analyze the blood smear images automatically. The previous automated segmentation algorithms worked on healthy and non-healthy WBCs separately. Also, such algorithms had employed certain color components which leak adaptively with different datasets. In this paper, a novel segmentation algorithm for WBCs in the blood smear images is proposed using multi-scale similarity measure based on the neutrosophic domain. We employ neutrosophic similarity score to measure the similarity between different color components of the blood smear image. Since we utilize different color components from different color spaces, we modify the neutrosphic score algorithm to be adaptive. Two different segmentation frameworks are proposed: one for the segmentation of nucleus, and the other for the cytoplasm of WBCs. Moreover, our proposed algorithm is applied to both healthy and non-healthy WBCs. in some cases, the single blood smear image gather between healthy and non-healthy WBCs which is considered in our proposed algorithm. Also, our segmentation algorithm is performed without any external morphological binary enhancement methods which may effect on the original shape of the WBC. Different public datasets with different resolutions were used in our experiments. We evaluate the system performance based on both qualitative and quantitative measurements. The quantitative results indicates high precision rates of the segmentation performance measurement A1 = 96.5% and A2 = 97.2% of the proposed method. The average segmentation performance results for different WBCs types reach to 97.6%. In this paper, a method based on adaptive neutrosphic sets similarity score is proposed in order to detect WBCs from a blood smear microscopic image and segment its components (nucleus and the cytoplasm). The proposed

  8. Alternative Methods to Curriculum-Based Measurement for Written Expression: Implications for Reliability and Validity of the Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrigan, Teresa E.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the current study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of alternative approaches to administering and scoring curriculum-based measurement for written expression. Specifically, three response durations (3, 5, and 7 minutes) and six score types (total words written, words spelled correctly, percent of words spelled correctly,…

  9. Exploring Validity of Computer-Based Test Scores with Examinees' Response Behaviors and Response Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Füsun

    2017-01-01

    Examining the testing processes, as well as the scores, is needed for a complete understanding of validity and fairness of computer-based assessments. Examinees' rapid-guessing and insufficient familiarity with computers have been found to be major issues that weaken the validity arguments of scores. This study has three goals: (a) improving…

  10. Turning Music Catalogues into Archives of Musical Scores – or Vice Versa: Music Archives and Catalogues Based on MEI XML

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geertinger, Axel Teich

    2014-01-01

    metadata and fully-featured scores may be a way of overcoming some of these limitations and at the same time include catalogue data in the score and vice versa. The Music Encoding Initiative (MEI) offers a framework for such an approach based on XML files. The article discusses pros and cons...

  11. A Validity-Based Approach to Quality Control and Assurance of Automated Scoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bejar, Isaac I.

    2011-01-01

    Automated scoring of constructed responses is already operational in several testing programmes. However, as the methodology matures and the demand for the utilisation of constructed responses increases, the volume of automated scoring is likely to increase at a fast pace. Quality assurance and control of the scoring process will likely be more…

  12. Prognostic value of epicardial fat volume measurements by computed tomography: a systematic review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spearman, James V; Renker, Matthias; Schoepf, U Joseph; Krazinski, Aleksander W; Herbert, Teri L; De Cecco, Carlo N; Nietert, Paul J; Meinel, Felix G

    2015-11-01

    To perform a systematic review of the growing body of literature evaluating the prognostic value of epicardial fat volume (EFV) quantified by cross-sectional imaging. Two independent reviewers performed systematic searches on both PubMed and Scopus using search terms developed with a medical librarian. Peer-reviewed articles were selected based on the inclusion of outcome data, utilization of epicardial fat volume and sufficient reporting for analysis. A total of 411 studies were evaluated with nine studies meeting the inclusion criteria. In all, the studies evaluated 10,252 patients. All nine studies were based on CT measurements. Seven studies evaluated the prognostic value of EFV unadjusted for calcium score, and six of these studies found a significant association between EFV and clinical outcomes. Seven studies evaluated the incremental value of EFV beyond calcium scoring, and six of these studies found a significant association. The majority of studies suggest that EFV quantification is significantly associated with clinical outcomes and provides incremental prognostic value over coronary artery calcium scoring. Future research should use a binary cutoff of 125 mL for evaluation of EFV to provide consistency with other research. • Epicardial fat volume (EFV) has prognostic value for adverse cardiac events • Establishment of standardized quantitative categories for EFV is needed • Quantification of EFV could improve risk assessment with calcium scoring.

  13. Impact of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System, cytogenetics and monosomal karyotype on outcome after allogeneic stem cell transplantation for myelodysplastic syndromes and secondary acute myeloid leukemia evolving from myelodysplastic syndromes: a retrospective multicenter study of the European Society of Blood and Marrow Transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenecke, Christian; Göhring, Gudrun; de Wreede, Liesbeth C; van Biezen, Anja; Scheid, Christof; Volin, Liisa; Maertens, Johan; Finke, Jürgen; Schaap, Nicolaas; Robin, Marie; Passweg, Jakob; Cornelissen, Jan; Beelen, Dietrich; Heuser, Michael; de Witte, Theo; Kröger, Nicolaus

    2015-03-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the impact of the revised 5-group International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification on outcome after allogeneic stem cell transplantation in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes or secondary acute myeloid leukemia who were reported to the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation database. A total of 903 patients had sufficient cytogenetic information available at stem cell transplantation to be classified according to the 5-group classification. Poor and very poor risk according to this classification was an independent predictor of shorter relapse-free survival (hazard ratio 1.40 and 2.14), overall survival (hazard ratio 1.38 and 2.14), and significantly higher cumulative incidence of relapse (hazard ratio 1.64 and 2.76), compared to patients with very good, good or intermediate risk. When comparing the predictive performance of a series of Cox models both for relapse-free survival and for overall survival, a model with simplified 5-group cytogenetics (merging very good, good and intermediate cytogenetics) performed best. Furthermore, monosomal karyotype is an additional negative predictor for outcome within patients of the poor, but not the very poor risk group of the 5-group classification. The revised International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification allows patients with myelodysplastic syndromes to be separated into three groups with clearly different outcomes after stem cell transplantation. Poor and very poor risk cytogenetics were strong predictors of poor patient outcome. The new cytogenetic classification added value to prediction of patient outcome compared to prediction models using only traditional risk factors or the 3-group International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification. Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

  14. Empirical Mode Decomposition Based Features for Diagnosis and Prognostics of Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Khatri, Hiralal; Ranney, Kenneth; Tom, Kwok; del Rosario, Romeo

    2008-01-01

    We present a new procedure to generate additional features for system diagnosis. The procedure is based on empirical mode decomposition of measured signals obtained by monitoring the relevant state of a system...

  15. Centile-based early warning scores derived from statistical distributions of vital signs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarassenko, Lionel; Clifton, David A; Pinsky, Michael R; Hravnak, Marilyn T; Woods, John R; Watkinson, Peter J

    2011-08-01

    To develop an early warning score (EWS) system based on the statistical properties of the vital signs in at-risk hospitalised patients. A large dataset comprising 64,622 h of vital-sign data, acquired from 863 acutely ill in-hospital patients using bedside monitors, was used to investigate the statistical properties of the four main vital signs. Normalised histograms and cumulative distribution functions were plotted for each of the four variables. A centile-based alerting system was modelled using the aggregated database. The means and standard deviations of our population's vital signs are very similar to those published in previous studies. When compared with EWS systems based on a future outcome, the cut-off values in our system are most different for respiratory rate and systolic blood pressure. With four-hourly observations in a 12-h shift, about 1 in 8 at-risk patients would trigger our alerting system during the shift. A centile-based EWS system will identify patients with abnormal vital signs regardless of their eventual outcome and might therefore be more likely to generate an alert when presented with patients with redeemable morbidity or avoidable mortality. We are about to start a stepped-wedge clinical trial gradually introducing an electronic version of our EWS system on the trauma wards in a teaching hospital. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Development and Application of a Plant-Based Diet Scoring System for Japanese Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiba, Mitsuro; Nakane, Kunio; Takayama, Yuko; Sugawara, Kae; Ohno, Hideo; Ishii, Hajime; Tsuda, Satoko; Tsuji, Tsuyotoshi; Komatsu, Masafumi; Sugawara, Takeshi

    2016-01-01

    Plant-based diets (PBDs) are a healthy alternative to westernized diets. A semivegetarian diet, a PBD, has been shown to prevent a relapse in Crohn disease. However, there is no way to measure adherence to PBDs. To develop a simple way of evaluating adherence to a PBD for Japanese patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). PBD scores were assigned according to the frequency of consumption provided on a food-frequency questionnaire, obtained on hospitalization for 159 patients with ulcerative colitis and 70 patients with Crohn disease. Eight items considered to be preventive factors for IBD were scored positively, and 8 items considered to be IBD risk factors were scored negatively. The PBD score was calculated from the sum of plus and minus scores. Higher PBD scores indicated greater adherence to a PBD. The PBD scores were evaluated on hospitalization and 2 years after discharge for 22 patients with Crohn disease whose dietary pattern and prognosis were established. Plant-Based Diet score. The PBD scores differed significantly, in descending order, by dietary type: pro-Japanese diet, mixed type, and pro-westernized diet (Wilcoxon/Kruskal-Wallis test). The PBD scores in the ulcerative colitis and Crohn disease groups were 10.9 ± 9.5 and 8.2 ± 8.2, respectively. For patients with Crohn disease, those with long-term remission and normal C-reactive protein concentration were significantly more likely to have PBD scores of 25 or greater than below 25 (χ2). The PBD score is a valid assessment of PBD dietary adherence.

  17. A Network-Based Data Envelope Analysis Model in a Dynamic Balanced Score Card

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojtaba Akbarian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Performance assessment during the time and along with strategies is the most important requirements of top managers. To assess the performance, a balanced score card (BSC along with strategic goals and a data envelopment analysis (DEA are used as powerful qualitative and quantitative tools, respectively. By integrating these two models, their strengths are used and their weaknesses are removed. In this paper, an integrated framework of the BSC and DEA models is proposed for measuring the efficiency during the time and along with strategies based on the time delay of the lag key performance indicators (KPIs of the BSC model. The causal relationships during the time among perspectives of the BSC model are drawn as dynamic BSC at first. Then, after identifying the network-DEA structure, a new objective function for measuring the efficiency of nine subsidiary refineries of the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC during the time and along with strategies is developed.

  18. A prognostic model of triple-negative breast cancer based on miR-27b-3p and node status.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Songjie Shen

    Full Text Available Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC is an aggressive but heterogeneous subtype of breast cancer. This study aimed to identify and validate a prognostic signature for TNBC patients to improve prognostic capability and to guide individualized treatment.We retrospectively analyzed the prognostic performance of clinicopathological characteristics and miRNAs in a training set of 58 patients with invasive ductal TNBC diagnosed between 2002 and 2012. A prediction model was developed based on independent clinicopathological and miRNA covariates. The prognostic value of the model was further validated in a separate set of 41 TNBC patients diagnosed between 2007 and 2008.Only lymph node status was marginally significantly associated with poor prognosis of TNBC (P = 0.054, whereas other clinicopathological factors, including age, tumor size, histological grade, lymphovascular invasion, P53 status, Ki-67 index, and type of surgery, were not. The expression levels of miR-27b-3p, miR-107, and miR-103a-3p were significantly elevated in the metastatic group compared with the disease-free group (P value: 0.008, 0.005, and 0.050, respectively. The Cox proportional hazards regression analysis revealed that lymph node status and miR-27b-3p were independent predictors of poor prognosis (P value: 0.012 and 0.027, respectively. A logistic regression model was developed based on these two independent covariates, and the prognostic value of the model was subsequently confirmed in a separate validation set. The two different risk groups, which were stratified according to the model, showed significant differences in the rates of distant metastasis and breast cancer-related death not only in the training set (P value: 0.001 and 0.040, respectively but also in the validation set (P value: 0.013 and 0.012, respectively.This model based on miRNA and node status covariates may be used to stratify TNBC patients into different prognostic subgroups for potentially

  19. Team-based learning on a third-year pediatric clerkship improves NBME subject exam blood disorder scores

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    Kris Saudek

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: At our institution, speculation amongst medical students and faculty exists as to whether team-based learning (TBL can improve scores on high-stakes examinations over traditional didactic lectures. Faculty with experience using TBL developed and piloted a required TBL blood disorders (BD module for third-year medical students on their pediatric clerkship. The purpose of this study is to analyze the BD scores from the NBME subject exams before and after the introduction of the module. Methods: We analyzed institutional and national item difficulties for BD items from the NBME pediatrics content area item analysis reports from 2011 to 2014 before (pre and after (post the pilot (October 2012. Total scores of 590 NBME subject examination students from examinee performance profiles were analyzed pre/post. t-Tests and Cohen's d effect sizes were used to analyze item difficulties for institutional versus national scores and pre/post comparisons of item difficulties and total scores. Results: BD scores for our institution were 0.65 (±0.19 compared to 0.62 (±0.15 nationally (P=0.346; Cohen's d=0.15. The average of post-consecutive BD scores for our students was 0.70(±0.21 compared to examinees nationally [0.64 (±0.15] with a significant mean difference (P=0.031; Cohen's d=0.43. The difference in our institutions pre [0.65 (±0.19] and post [0.70 (±0.21] BD scores trended higher (P=0.391; Cohen's d=0.27. Institutional BD scores were higher than national BD scores for both pre and post, with an effect size that tripled from pre to post scores. Institutional BD scores increased after the use of the TBL module, while overall exam scores remained steadily above national norms. Conclusions: Institutional BD scores were higher than national BD scores for both pre and post, with an effect size that tripled from pre to post scores. Institutional BD scores increased after the use of the TBL module, while overall exam scores remained steadily above

  20. Prognostic impact of array-based genomic profiles in esophageal squamous cell cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carneiro, Ana; Isinger, Anna; Karlsson, Anna

    2008-01-01

    applied array-based comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) to obtain a whole genome copy number profile relevant for identifying deranged pathways and clinically applicable markers. METHODS: A 32 k aCGH platform was used for high resolution mapping of copy number changes in 30 stage I-IV ESCC. Potential...

  1. Dissecting complex transcriptional responses using pathway-level scores based on prior information

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    Ward Lucas D

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The genomewide pattern of changes in mRNA expression measured using DNA microarrays is typically a complex superposition of the response of multiple regulatory pathways to changes in the environment of the cells. The use of prior information, either about the function of the protein encoded by each gene, or about the physical interactions between regulatory factors and the sequences controlling its expression, has emerged as a powerful approach for dissecting complex transcriptional responses. Results We review two different approaches for combining the noisy expression levels of multiple individual genes into robust pathway-level differential expression scores. The first is based on a comparison between the distribution of expression levels of genes within a predefined gene set and those of all other genes in the genome. The second starts from an estimate of the strength of genomewide regulatory network connectivities based on sequence information or direct measurements of protein-DNA interactions, and uses regression analysis to estimate the activity of gene regulatory pathways. The statistical methods used are explained in detail. Conclusion By avoiding the thresholding of individual genes, pathway-level analysis of differential expression based on prior information can be considerably more sensitive to subtle changes in gene expression than gene-level analysis. The methods are technically straightforward and yield results that are easily interpretable, both biologically and statistically.

  2. Development and Validation of a New Evaluation System for Patients With a Floor-based Lifestyle: The Korean Knee Score

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kim, Jin Goo; Ha, Jeong Ku; Han, Seung Beom; Kim, Tae Kyun; Lee, Myung Chul

    2013-01-01

    ...) describe a novel patient-generated knee evaluation instrument, the Korean knee score (KKS), to reflect floor-based lifestyles with high knee flexion that included questions regarding health-related quality of life...

  3. Technology of prognostication of sporting achievements of badminton players on the stage of preliminary base preparation.

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    Shyyan V.N.

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In the article the technology of evaluation of potential capabilities of badminton players is displayed 12-14 years. The functional, pedagogical and psychophysiological criteria which became a component parts of the developed analytical models of sportsmen-badminton players are explored. The criterion for the quantitative estimation of perspective is offered, which allows on the 9-ti point scale to estimate perspective of badminton players on the stage of preliminary base preparation.

  4. Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    de las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine

    2016-01-01

    Background The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. Methods We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994–1995) and S4 (1999–2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000–2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. Results The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. Conclusions The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany. PMID:27732641

  5. Manifold ranking based scoring system with its application to cardiac arrest prediction: A retrospective study in emergency department patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tianchi; Lin, Zhiping; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock; Koh, Zhi Xiong; Pek, Pin Pin; Yeo, Yong Kiang; Oh, Beom-Seok; Ho, Andrew Fu Wah; Liu, Nan

    2015-12-01

    The recently developed geometric distance scoring system has shown the effectiveness of scoring systems in predicting cardiac arrest within 72h and the potential to predict other clinical outcomes. However, the geometric distance scoring system predicts scores based on only local structure embedded by the data, thus leaving much room for improvement in terms of prediction accuracy. We developed a novel scoring system for predicting cardiac arrest within 72h. The