Ventricular repolarization measures for arrhythmic risk stratification

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Francesco Monitillo; Marta Leone; Caterina Rizzo; Andrea Passantino; Massimo Iacoviello

2016-01-01

Ventricular repolarization is a complex electrical phenomenon which represents a crucial stage in electrical cardiac activity. It is expressed on the surface electrocardiogram by the interval between the start of the QRS complex and the end of the T wave or U wave(QT). Several physiological, pathological and iatrogenic factors can influence ventricular repolarization. It has been demonstrated that small perturbations in this process can be a potential trigger of malignant arrhythmias, therefore the analysis of ventricular repolarization represents an interesting tool to implement risk stratification of arrhythmic events in different clinical settings. The aim of this review is to critically revise the traditional methods of static analysis of ventricular repolarization as well as those for dynamic evaluation, their prognostic significance and the possible application in daily clinical practice.

Value of Exercise ECG for Risk Stratification in Suspected or Known CAD in the Era of Advanced Imaging Technologies.

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Bourque, Jamieson M; Beller, George A

2015-11-01

Exercise stress electrocardiography (ExECG) is underutilized as the initial test modality in patients with interpretable electrocardiograms who are able to exercise. Although stress myocardial imaging techniques provide valuable diagnostic and prognostic information, variables derived from ExECG can yield substantial data for risk stratification, either supplementary to imaging variables or without concurrent imaging. In addition to exercise-induced ischemic ST-segment depression, such markers as ST-segment elevation in lead aVR, abnormal heart rate recovery post-exercise, failure to achieve target heart rate, and poor exercise capacity improve risk stratification of ExECG. For example, patients achieving ≥10 metabolic equivalents on ExECG have a very low prevalence of inducible ischemia and an excellent prognosis. In contrast, cardiac imaging techniques add diagnostic and prognostic value in higher-risk populations (e.g., poor functional capacity, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease). Optimal test selection for symptomatic patients with suspected coronary artery disease requires a patient-centered approach factoring in the risk/benefit ratio and cost-effectiveness. Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk stratification of patients with advanced squamous cell carcinoma of cervix treated by radiotherapy alone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, J.-H.; Tsai, C.-S.; Lai, C.-H.; Chang, T.-C.; Wang, C.-C.; Chou, H.-H.; Lee, Steve P.; Lee, C.-C.; Tang, Simon G.; Hsueh Swei

2005-01-01

Purpose: To identify prognostic factors for local and distant relapse and perform risk stratification for patients with advanced cervical cancer treated with radiotherapy (RT) alone. Methods and Materials: A total of 1031 patients with Stage IB-IVA squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix treated with full-course RT but without any chemotherapy were included for analysis. Of these, 311 patients with nonbulky Stage IB-IIA disease were designated the reference group and the other 720 patients were the study group. The associations of stage, squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC-ag) level, hemoglobin level, age, cell differentiation, and pelvic lymph node status with treatment failure were evaluated. The independent prognostic factors were identified by multivariate analysis. The study group was further stratified into subgroups using combinations of these risk factors. Results: In the study group, independent risk factors for local relapse were advanced stage and age 2, and positive pelvic lymph nodes. The 5-year distant relapse-free survival rate was 83% for patients with bulky Stage IB-IIA and IIB disease, SCC-ag level 2, and positive lymph nodes. Conclusion: The risk of treatment failure in advanced-stage cervical cancer patients treated by RT alone can be more precisely predicted by risk stratification. A certain subgroup of patients had better control than the others. The benefit of treating these relatively low-risk patients with additional treatment such as concurrent chemotherapy should be further evaluated in prospective studies or meta-analyses

Heterogeneity of (18)F-FDG PET combined with expression of EGFR may improve the prognostic stratification of advanced oropharyngeal carcinoma.

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Wang, Hung-Ming; Cheng, Nai-Ming; Lee, Li-Yu; Fang, Yu-Hua Dean; Chang, Joseph Tung-Chieh; Tsan, Din-Li; Ng, Shu-Hang; Liao, Chun-Ta; Yang, Lan-Yan; Yen, Tzu-Chen

2016-02-01

The Ang's risk profile (based on p16, smoking and cancer stage) is a well-known prognostic factor in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Whether heterogeneity in (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomographic (PET) images and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) expression could provide additional information on clinical outcomes in advanced-stage OPSCC was investigated. Patients with stage III-IV OPSCC who completed primary therapy were eligible. Zone-size nonuniformity (ZSNU) extracted from pretreatment FDG PET scans was used as an index of image heterogeneity. EGFR and p16 expression were examined by immunohistochemistry. Disease-specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS) served as outcome measures. Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used for survival analysis. A bootstrap resampling technique was applied to investigate the stability of outcomes. Finally, a recursive partitioning analysis (RPA)-based model was constructed. A total of 113 patients were included, of which 28 were p16-positive. Multivariate analysis identified the Ang's profile, EGFR and ZSNU as independent predictors of both DSS and OS. Using RPA, the three risk factors were used to devise a prognostic scoring system that successfully predicted DSS in both p16-positive and -negative cases. The c-statistic of the prognostic index for DSS was 0.81, a value which was significantly superior to both AJCC stage (0.60) and the Ang's risk profile (0.68). In patients showing an Ang's high-risk profile (N = 77), the use of our scoring system clearly identified three distinct prognostic subgroups. It was concluded that a novel index may improve the prognostic stratification of patients with advanced-stage OPSCC. © 2015 UICC.

Predictors of biochemical failure in patients undergoing prostate whole-gland salvage cryotherapy: a novel risk stratification model.

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Spiess, Philippe E; Levy, David A; Mouraviev, Vladimir; Pisters, Louis L; Jones, J Stephen

2013-08-01

What's known on the subject? and what does the study add?: Previous studies have identified the most important prognostic factors of the likely outcomes of salvage prostate whole-gland ablation, including initial clinical stage, biopsy Gleason score, and PSA (total and doubling time). There is potential for further optimization of candidate selection for salvage cryoablation with curative intent and nadir PSA achieved after whole-gland cryotherapy may provide additional prognostic value. The study shows that the most important prognostic factors of biochemical progression-free survival for patients who have undergone whole-gland salvage prostate cryotherapy are nadir PSA achieved after therapy and pre-therapy biopsy Gleason score. Based on these two prognostic variables, we have identified risk stratification groups (low, intermediate and high) which help predict the expected outcomes of salvage whole-gland prostate cryotherapy in a given patient. This risk stratification constitutes a useful clinical tool in defining which patients maybe best suited for this local salvage treatment method. To assess the prognostic variables predicting the risk of biochemical progression-free survival (bPFS) after salvage prostate whole-gland cryotherapy using the Phoenix definition of bPFS. A total of 132 patients underwent prostate whole-gland salvage cryotherapy with curative intent. No patient underwent neoadjuvant/adjuvant hormonal ablative therapy, and all had extended post-salvage prostate-specific antigen (PSA) follow-up data. Cox univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses of potential predictors of bPFS were conducted. Kaplan-Meier analyses of bPFS was also performed. At a mean (range) follow-up of 4.3 (0.9-12.7) years, the median (range) post-cryotherapy nadir PSA achieved was 0.17 (0-33.9) ng/mL. On multivariate analysis, predictors of bPFS were nadir PSA post-cryotherapy and pre-salvage biopsy Gleason score (P 2.5 ng/mL or biopsy Gleason score ≥ 7, with

Liposarcoma: exploration of clinical prognostic factors for risk based stratification of therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hyo Song; Park, Joon Oh; Kim, Sung Joo; Lee, Jeeyun; Yi, Seong Yoon; Jun, Hyun Jung; Choi, Yoon-La; Ahn, Geung Hwan; Seo, Sung Wook; Lim, Do Hoon; Ahn, Yong Chan

2009-01-01

Prognosis and optimal treatment strategies of liposarcoma have not been fully defined. The purpose of this study is to define the distinctive clinical features of liposarcomas by assessing prognostic factors. Between January 1995 and May 2008, 94 liposarcoma patients who underwent surgical resection with curative intent were reviewed. Fifty patients (53.2%) presented with well differentiated, 22 (23.4%) myxoid, 15 (16.0%) dedifferentiated, 5 (5.3%) round cell, and 2 (2.1%) pleomorphic histology. With the median 14 cm sized of tumor burden, about half of the cases were located in the retroperitoneum (46.8%). Seventy two (76.6%) patients remained alive with 78.1%, and 67.5% of the 5- and 10-year overall survival (OS) rates, respectively. Low grade liposarcoma (well differentiated and myxoid) had a significantly prolonged OS and disease free survival (DFS) with adjuvant radiotherapy when compared with those without adjuvant radiotherapy (5-year OS, 100% vs 66.3%, P = 0.03; 1-year DFS, 92.9% vs 50.0%, respectively, P = 0.04). Independent prognostic factors for OS were histologic variant (P = 0.001; HR, 5.1; 95% CI, 2.0 – 12.9), and margin status (P = 0.005; HR, 4.1; 95% CI, 1.6–10.5). We identified three different risk groups: group 1 (n = 66), no adverse factors; group 2, one or two adverse factors (n = 28). The 5-year OS rate for group 1, and 2 were 91.9%, 45.5%, respectively. The histologic subtype, and margin status were independently associated with OS, and adjuvant radiotherapy seems to confer survival benefit in low grade tumors. Our prognostic model for primary liposarcoma demonstrated distinct three groups of patients with good prognostic discrimination

Evaluation of prognostic models developed using standardised image features from different PET automated segmentation methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Parkinson, Craig; Foley, Kieran; Whybra, Philip; Hills, Robert; Roberts, Ashley; Marshall, Chris; Staffurth, John; Spezi, Emiliano

2018-04-11

Prognosis in oesophageal cancer (OC) is poor. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate is approximately 15%. Personalised medicine is hoped to increase the 5- and 10-year OS rates. Quantitative analysis of PET is gaining substantial interest in prognostic research but requires the accurate definition of the metabolic tumour volume. This study compares prognostic models developed in the same patient cohort using individual PET segmentation algorithms and assesses the impact on patient risk stratification. Consecutive patients (n = 427) with biopsy-proven OC were included in final analysis. All patients were staged with PET/CT between September 2010 and July 2016. Nine automatic PET segmentation methods were studied. All tumour contours were subjectively analysed for accuracy, and segmentation methods with segmentation methods studied, clustering means (KM2), general clustering means (GCM3), adaptive thresholding (AT) and watershed thresholding (WT) methods were included for analysis. Known clinical prognostic factors (age, treatment and staging) were significant in all of the developed prognostic models. AT and KM2 segmentation methods developed identical prognostic models. Patient risk stratification was dependent on the segmentation method used to develop the prognostic model with up to 73 patients (17.1%) changing risk stratification group. Prognostic models incorporating quantitative image features are dependent on the method used to delineate the primary tumour. This has a subsequent effect on risk stratification, with patients changing groups depending on the image segmentation method used.

Cytogenetic prognostication within medulloblastoma subgroups.

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Shih, David J H; Northcott, Paul A; Remke, Marc; Korshunov, Andrey; Ramaswamy, Vijay; Kool, Marcel; Luu, Betty; Yao, Yuan; Wang, Xin; Dubuc, Adrian M; Garzia, Livia; Peacock, John; Mack, Stephen C; Wu, Xiaochong; Rolider, Adi; Morrissy, A Sorana; Cavalli, Florence M G; Jones, David T W; Zitterbart, Karel; Faria, Claudia C; Schüller, Ulrich; Kren, Leos; Kumabe, Toshihiro; Tominaga, Teiji; Shin Ra, Young; Garami, Miklós; Hauser, Peter; Chan, Jennifer A; Robinson, Shenandoah; Bognár, László; Klekner, Almos; Saad, Ali G; Liau, Linda M; Albrecht, Steffen; Fontebasso, Adam; Cinalli, Giuseppe; De Antonellis, Pasqualino; Zollo, Massimo; Cooper, Michael K; Thompson, Reid C; Bailey, Simon; Lindsey, Janet C; Di Rocco, Concezio; Massimi, Luca; Michiels, Erna M C; Scherer, Stephen W; Phillips, Joanna J; Gupta, Nalin; Fan, Xing; Muraszko, Karin M; Vibhakar, Rajeev; Eberhart, Charles G; Fouladi, Maryam; Lach, Boleslaw; Jung, Shin; Wechsler-Reya, Robert J; Fèvre-Montange, Michelle; Jouvet, Anne; Jabado, Nada; Pollack, Ian F; Weiss, William A; Lee, Ji-Yeoun; Cho, Byung-Kyu; Kim, Seung-Ki; Wang, Kyu-Chang; Leonard, Jeffrey R; Rubin, Joshua B; de Torres, Carmen; Lavarino, Cinzia; Mora, Jaume; Cho, Yoon-Jae; Tabori, Uri; Olson, James M; Gajjar, Amar; Packer, Roger J; Rutkowski, Stefan; Pomeroy, Scott L; French, Pim J; Kloosterhof, Nanne K; Kros, Johan M; Van Meir, Erwin G; Clifford, Steven C; Bourdeaut, Franck; Delattre, Olivier; Doz, François F; Hawkins, Cynthia E; Malkin, David; Grajkowska, Wieslawa A; Perek-Polnik, Marta; Bouffet, Eric; Rutka, James T; Pfister, Stefan M; Taylor, Michael D

2014-03-20

Medulloblastoma comprises four distinct molecular subgroups: WNT, SHH, Group 3, and Group 4. Current medulloblastoma protocols stratify patients based on clinical features: patient age, metastatic stage, extent of resection, and histologic variant. Stark prognostic and genetic differences among the four subgroups suggest that subgroup-specific molecular biomarkers could improve patient prognostication. Molecular biomarkers were identified from a discovery set of 673 medulloblastomas from 43 cities around the world. Combined risk stratification models were designed based on clinical and cytogenetic biomarkers identified by multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses. Identified biomarkers were tested using fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) on a nonoverlapping medulloblastoma tissue microarray (n = 453), with subsequent validation of the risk stratification models. Subgroup information improves the predictive accuracy of a multivariable survival model compared with clinical biomarkers alone. Most previously published cytogenetic biomarkers are only prognostic within a single medulloblastoma subgroup. Profiling six FISH biomarkers (GLI2, MYC, chromosome 11 [chr11], chr14, 17p, and 17q) on formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues, we can reliably and reproducibly identify very low-risk and very high-risk patients within SHH, Group 3, and Group 4 medulloblastomas. Combining subgroup and cytogenetic biomarkers with established clinical biomarkers substantially improves patient prognostication, even in the context of heterogeneous clinical therapies. The prognostic significance of most molecular biomarkers is restricted to a specific subgroup. We have identified a small panel of cytogenetic biomarkers that reliably identifies very high-risk and very low-risk groups of patients, making it an excellent tool for selecting patients for therapy intensification and therapy de-escalation in future clinical trials.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Stratification in the Emergency Department Using Urinary Biomarkers of Nephron Damage

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Nickolas, Thomas L.; Schmidt-Ott, Kai M.; Canetta, Pietro; Forster, Catherine; Singer, Eugenia; Sise, Meghan; Elger, Antje; Maarouf, Omar; Sola-Del Valle, David Antonio; O'Rourke, Matthew; Sherman, Evan; Lee, Peter; Geara, Abdallah; Imus, Philip; Guddati, Achuta; Polland, Allison; Rahman, Wasiq; Elitok, Saban; Malik, Nasir; Giglio, James; El-Sayegh, Suzanne; Devarajan, Prasad; Hebbar, Sudarshan; Saggi, Subodh J.; Hahn, Barry; Kettritz, Ralph; Luft, Friedrich C.; Barasch, Jonathan

2012-01-01

Objectives This study aimed to determine the diagnostic and prognostic value of urinary biomarkers of intrinsic acute kidney injury (AKI) when patients were triaged in the emergency department. Background Intrinsic AKI is associated with nephron injury and results in poor clinical outcomes. Several urinary biomarkers have been proposed to detect and measure intrinsic AKI. Methods In a multicenter prospective cohort study, 5 urinary biomarkers (urinary neutrophil gelatinase–associated lipocalin, kidney injury molecule-1, urinary liver-type fatty acid binding protein, urinary interleukin-18, and cystatin C) were measured in 1,635 unselected emergency department patients at the time of hospital admission. We determined whether the biomarkers diagnosed intrinsic AKI and predicted adverse outcomes during hospitalization. Results All biomarkers were elevated in intrinsic AKI, but urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin was most useful (81% specificity, 68% sensitivity at a 104-ng/ml cutoff) and predictive of the severity and duration of AKI. Intrinsic AKI was strongly associated with adverse in-hospital outcomes. Urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin and urinary kidney injury molecule 1 predicted a composite outcome of dialysis initiation or death during hospitalization, and both improved the net risk classification compared with conventional assessments. These biomarkers also identified a substantial subpopulation with low serum creatinine at hospital admission, but who were at risk of adverse events. Conclusion Urinary biomarkers of nephron damage enable prospective diagnostic and prognostic stratification in the emergency department. PMID:22240130

Scores for post-myocardial infarction risk stratification in the community.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Mandeep; Reeder, Guy S; Jacobsen, Steven J; Weston, Susan; Killian, Jill; Roger, Véronique L

2002-10-29

Several scores, most of which were derived from clinical trials, have been proposed for stratifying risk after myocardial infarctions (MIs). Little is known about their generalizability to the community, their respective advantages, and whether the ejection fraction (EF) adds prognostic information to the scores. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Predicting Risk of Death in Cardiac Disease Tool (PREDICT) scores in a geographically defined MI cohort and determine the incremental value of EF for risk stratification. MIs occurring in Olmsted County were validated with the use of standardized criteria and stratified with the ECG into ST-segment elevation (STEMI) and non-ST-segment elevation (NSTEMI) MI. Logistic regression examined the discriminant accuracy of the TIMI and PREDICT scores to predict death and recurrent MI and assessed the incremental value of the EF. After 6.3+/-4.7 years, survival was similar for the 562 STEMIs and 717 NSTEMIs. The discriminant accuracy of the TIMI score was good in STEMI but only fair in NSTEMI. Across time and end points, irrespective of reperfusion therapy, the discriminant accuracy of the PREDICT score was consistently superior to that of the TIMI scores, largely because PREDICT includes comorbidity; EF provided incremental information over that provided by the scores and comorbidity. In the community, comorbidity and EF convey important prognostic information and should be included in approaches for stratifying risk after MI.

Risk Stratification in Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: An Ongoing Process

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Gal Omry-Orbach

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Thyroid cancer is an increasingly common malignancy, with a rapidly rising prevalence worldwide. The social and economic ramifications of the increase in thyroid cancer are multiple. Though mortality from thyroid cancer is low, and most patients will do well, the risk of recurrence is not insignificant, up to 30%. Therefore, it is important to accurately identify those patients who are more or less likely to be burdened by their disease over years and tailor their treatment plan accordingly. The goal of risk stratification is to do just that. The risk stratification process generally starts postoperatively with histopathologic staging, based on the AJCC/UICC staging system as well as others designed to predict mortality. These do not, however, accurately assess the risk of recurrence/persistence. Patients initially considered to be at high risk may ultimately do very well yet be burdened by frequent unnecessary monitoring. Conversely, patients initially thought to be low risk, may not respond to their initial treatment as expected and, if left unmonitored, may have higher morbidity. The concept of risk-adaptive management has been adopted, with an understanding that risk stratification for differentiated thyroid cancer is dynamic and ongoing. A multitude of variables not included in AJCC/UICC staging are used initially to classify patients as low, intermediate, or high risk for recurrence. Over the course of time, a response-to-therapy variable is incorporated, and patients essentially undergo continuous risk stratification. Additional tools such as biochemical markers, genetic mutations, and molecular markers have been added to this complex risk stratification process such that this is essentially a continuum of risk. In recent years, additional considerations have been discussed with a suggestion of pre-operative risk stratification based on certain clinical and/or biologic characteristics. With the increasing prevalence of thyroid cancer but

Significant clinical impact and prognostic stratification provided by FDG-PET in the staging of oesophageal cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duong, Cuong P.; Demitriou, Helen; Thompson, Anne; Williams, David; Thomas, Robert J.S.; Weih, LeAnn; Hicks, Rodney J.

2006-01-01

To evaluate the clinical impact of FDG-PET in staging oesophageal cancer and whether this information improves prognostic stratification. Impact was based on comparison of a prospectively recorded pre-PET plan with post-PET treatment in 68 consecutive patients undergoing primary staging. Survival was analysed using the Kaplan-Meier product limit method and the Cox proportional hazards regression model. FDG-PET findings impacted on the management of 27/68 patients (40%): in 12 therapy was changed from curative to palliative and in three from palliative to curative, while in 12 other patients there was a change in the treatment modality or delivery but not in the treatment intent. The median survival was 21 months, with post-PET stage and treatment intent both strongly associated with survival (p<0.001). Conventional stage was not able to clearly stratify this population. The use of FDG-PET for primary staging of oesophageal cancer changed the clinical management of more than one-third of patients and provided superior prognostic stratification compared with conventional investigations. (orig.)

Value of planar 201Tl imaging in risk stratification of patients recovering from acute myocardial infarction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gibson, R.S.; Watson, D.D.

1991-01-01

Although exercise ECG testing has been shown to have important prognostic value after acute myocardial infarction, exercise 201Tl scintigraphy offers several potential advantages, including: (1) increased sensitivity for detecting residual myocardial ischemia; (2) the ability to localize ischemia to a specific area or areas subtended by a specific coronary artery; (3) the ability to identify exercise-induced left ventricular dysfunction, which is manifested by increased lung uptake or transient left ventricular dilation; and (4) more reliable risk stratification of individual patients. The more optimal prognostic efficiency of 201Tl scintigraphy partially results from the fact that the error rate in falsely classifying patients as low risk is significantly smaller with 201Tl scintigraphy than with stress ECG. Because of these substantial advantages, there seems to be adequate rationale for recommending exercise perfusion imaging rather than exercise ECG alone as the preferred method for evaluating mortality and morbidity risks after acute myocardial infarction

Application of support vector machine classifiers to preoperative risk stratification with myocardial perfusion scintigraphy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kasamatsu, Tomotaka; Hashimoto, Jun; Nakahara, Tadaki; Bai, Jingming; Kitamura, Naoto; Kubo, Atsushi; Iyatomi, Hitoshi; Ogawa, Koichi

2008-01-01

Myocardial perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) has been used for risk stratification before non-cardiac surgery. However, few authors have used mathematical models for evaluating the likelihood of perioperative cardiac events. This retrospective cohort study collected data of 1,351 patients referred for SPECT before non-cardiac surgery. We generated binary classifiers using support vector machine (SVM) and conventional linear models for predicting perioperative cardiac events. We used clinical and surgical risk, and SPECT findings as input data, and the occurrence of all and hard cardiac events as output data. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated for assessing the prediction accuracy. The AUC values were 0.884 and 0.748 in the SVM and linear models, respectively in predicting all cardiac events with clinical and surgical risk, and SPECT variables. The values were 0.861 (SVM) and 0.677 (linear) when not using SPECT data as input. In hard events, the AUC values were 0.892 (SVM) and 0.864 (linear) with SPECT, and 0.867 (SVM) and 0.768 (linear) without SPECT. The SVM was superior to the linear model in risk stratification. We also found an incremental prognostic value of SPECT results over information about clinical and surgical risk. (author)

Comparison of two prognostic models for acute pulmonary embolism

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Abd-ElRahim Ibrahim Youssef

2016-10-01

Conclusion: (1 There is an agreement to great extent in risk stratification of APE patients by PESI and ESC prognostic models, where mortality rate is increased among high risk classes of both models, (2 ESC prognostic model is more accurate than PESI model in mortality prediction of APE patients especially in the high risk class, (3 echocardiographic evidence of RVD and elevated plasma BNP can help to identify APE patients at increased risk of adverse short-term outcome and (4 integration of RVD assessment by echocardiography and BNP to clinical findings improves the prognostic value of ESC model.

Risk factors and a prognostic score for survival after autologous stem-cell transplantation for relapsed or refractory Hodgkin lymphoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bröckelmann, P J; Müller, H; Casasnovas, O

2017-01-01

study (n = 1045), precise and valid risk prognostication in HL patients undergoing ASCT can be achieved with five easily available clinical RFs. The proposed prognostic score hence allows reliable stratification of patients for innovative therapeutic approaches in clinical practice and future trials...... therapeutic approaches, we investigated a comprehensive set of risk factors (RFs) for survival after ASCT. Methods: In this multinational prognostic multivariable modeling study, 23 potential RFs were retrospectively evaluated in HL patients from nine prospective trials with multivariable Cox proportional...... of potential RFs had significant impact on progression-free survival (PFS) with hazard ratios (HR) ranging from 1.39 to 2.22. The multivariable analysis identified stage IV disease, time to relapse ≤3 months, ECOG performance status ≥1, bulk ≥5 cm and inadequate response to salvage chemotherapy [

Prognostic Value of High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T Compared with Risk Scores in Stable Cardiovascular Disease.

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Biener, Moritz; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Kuhner, Manuel; Zelniker, Thomas; Mueller-Hennessen, Matthias; Vafaie, Mehrshad; Trenk, Dietmar; Neumann, Franz-Josef; Hochholzer, Willibald; Katus, Hugo A

2017-05-01

Risk stratification of patients with cardiovascular disease remains challenging despite consideration of risk scores. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T in a low-risk outpatient population presenting for nonsecondary and secondary prevention. All-cause mortality, a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke (end point 2), and a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, stroke and rehospitalization for acute coronary syndrome, and decompensated heart failure (end point 3) were defined. The prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T on index visit was compared with the PROCAM score and 3 FRAMINGHAM subscores. In 693 patients with a median follow-up of 796 days, we observed 16 deaths, 32 patients with end point 2, and 83 patients with end point 3. All risk scores performed better in the prediction of all-cause mortality in nonsecondary prevention (area under the curve [AUC]: PROCAM: 0.922 vs 0.523, P = .001, consistent for all other scores). In secondary prevention, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T outperformed all risk scores in the prediction of all-cause mortality (ΔAUC: PROCAM: 0.319, P risk scores. Our findings on the prediction of all-cause mortality compared with the FRAMINGHAM-Hard Coronary Heart Disease score were confirmed in an independent validation cohort on 2046 patients. High-sensitivity troponin T provides excellent risk stratification regarding all-cause mortality and all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke in a secondary prevention cohort in whom risk scores perform poorly. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of beta-blocker treatment on the prognostic value of currently used risk predictors in congestive heart failure.

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Zugck, Christian; Haunstetter, Armin; Krüger, Carsten; Kell, Robert; Schellberg, Dieter; Kübler, Wolfgang; Haass, Markus

2002-05-15

This prospective study tested the impact of beta-blocker treatment on currently used risk predictors in congestive heart failure (CHF). Given the survival benefit obtained by beta-blockade, risk stratification by factors established in the "pre-beta-blocker era" may be questioned. The study included 408 patients who had CHF with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 2.24 nmol/l (18% vs. 40%) and NT-proBNP >364 pmol/l (27% vs. 45%), although patients with beta-blocker treatment received only 37 +/- 21% of the maximal recommended beta-blocker dosages. The prognostic value of variables used for risk stratification of patients with CHF is markedly influenced by beta-blocker treatment. Therefore, in the beta-blocker era, a re-evaluation of the selection criteria for heart transplantation is warranted.

A probabilistic topic model for clinical risk stratification from electronic health records.

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Huang, Zhengxing; Dong, Wei; Duan, Huilong

2015-12-01

Risk stratification aims to provide physicians with the accurate assessment of a patient's clinical risk such that an individualized prevention or management strategy can be developed and delivered. Existing risk stratification techniques mainly focus on predicting the overall risk of an individual patient in a supervised manner, and, at the cohort level, often offer little insight beyond a flat score-based segmentation from the labeled clinical dataset. To this end, in this paper, we propose a new approach for risk stratification by exploring a large volume of electronic health records (EHRs) in an unsupervised fashion. Along this line, this paper proposes a novel probabilistic topic modeling framework called probabilistic risk stratification model (PRSM) based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). The proposed PRSM recognizes a patient clinical state as a probabilistic combination of latent sub-profiles, and generates sub-profile-specific risk tiers of patients from their EHRs in a fully unsupervised fashion. The achieved stratification results can be easily recognized as high-, medium- and low-risk, respectively. In addition, we present an extension of PRSM, called weakly supervised PRSM (WS-PRSM) by incorporating minimum prior information into the model, in order to improve the risk stratification accuracy, and to make our models highly portable to risk stratification tasks of various diseases. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach on a clinical dataset containing 3463 coronary heart disease (CHD) patient instances. Both PRSM and WS-PRSM were compared with two established supervised risk stratification algorithms, i.e., logistic regression and support vector machine, and showed the effectiveness of our models in risk stratification of CHD in terms of the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) analysis. As well, in comparison with PRSM, WS-PRSM has over 2% performance gain, on the experimental dataset, demonstrating that

Molecular Classification Substitutes for the Prognostic Variables Stage, Age, and MYCN Status in Neuroblastoma Risk Assessment

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Carolina Rosswog

2017-12-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Current risk stratification systems for neuroblastoma patients consider clinical, histopathological, and genetic variables, and additional prognostic markers have been proposed in recent years. We here sought to select highly informative covariates in a multistep strategy based on consecutive Cox regression models, resulting in a risk score that integrates hazard ratios of prognostic variables. METHODS: A cohort of 695 neuroblastoma patients was divided into a discovery set (n = 75 for multigene predictor generation, a training set (n = 411 for risk score development, and a validation set (n = 209. Relevant prognostic variables were identified by stepwise multivariable L1-penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO Cox regression, followed by backward selection in multivariable Cox regression, and then integrated into a novel risk score. RESULTS: The variables stage, age, MYCN status, and two multigene predictors, NB-th24 and NB-th44, were selected as independent prognostic markers by LASSO Cox regression analysis. Following backward selection, only the multigene predictors were retained in the final model. Integration of these classifiers in a risk scoring system distinguished three patient subgroups that differed substantially in their outcome. The scoring system discriminated patients with diverging outcome in the validation cohort (5-year event-free survival, 84.9 ± 3.4 vs 63.6 ± 14.5 vs 31.0 ± 5.4; P < .001, and its prognostic value was validated by multivariable analysis. CONCLUSION: We here propose a translational strategy for developing risk assessment systems based on hazard ratios of relevant prognostic variables. Our final neuroblastoma risk score comprised two multigene predictors only, supporting the notion that molecular properties of the tumor cells strongly impact clinical courses of neuroblastoma patients.

Molecular Classification Substitutes for the Prognostic Variables Stage, Age, and MYCN Status in Neuroblastoma Risk Assessment.

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Rosswog, Carolina; Schmidt, Rene; Oberthuer, André; Juraeva, Dilafruz; Brors, Benedikt; Engesser, Anne; Kahlert, Yvonne; Volland, Ruth; Bartenhagen, Christoph; Simon, Thorsten; Berthold, Frank; Hero, Barbara; Faldum, Andreas; Fischer, Matthias

2017-12-01

Current risk stratification systems for neuroblastoma patients consider clinical, histopathological, and genetic variables, and additional prognostic markers have been proposed in recent years. We here sought to select highly informative covariates in a multistep strategy based on consecutive Cox regression models, resulting in a risk score that integrates hazard ratios of prognostic variables. A cohort of 695 neuroblastoma patients was divided into a discovery set (n=75) for multigene predictor generation, a training set (n=411) for risk score development, and a validation set (n=209). Relevant prognostic variables were identified by stepwise multivariable L1-penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, followed by backward selection in multivariable Cox regression, and then integrated into a novel risk score. The variables stage, age, MYCN status, and two multigene predictors, NB-th24 and NB-th44, were selected as independent prognostic markers by LASSO Cox regression analysis. Following backward selection, only the multigene predictors were retained in the final model. Integration of these classifiers in a risk scoring system distinguished three patient subgroups that differed substantially in their outcome. The scoring system discriminated patients with diverging outcome in the validation cohort (5-year event-free survival, 84.9±3.4 vs 63.6±14.5 vs 31.0±5.4; P<.001), and its prognostic value was validated by multivariable analysis. We here propose a translational strategy for developing risk assessment systems based on hazard ratios of relevant prognostic variables. Our final neuroblastoma risk score comprised two multigene predictors only, supporting the notion that molecular properties of the tumor cells strongly impact clinical courses of neuroblastoma patients. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Non-muscle invasive bladder cancer risk stratification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sumit Isharwal

2015-01-01

Conclusion: EORTC and CUETO risk tables are the two best-established models to predict recurrence and progression in patients with NMIBC though they tend to overestimate risk and have poor discrimination for prognostic outcomes in external validation. Future research should focus on enhancing the predictive accuracy of risk assessment tools by incorporating additional prognostic factors such as depth of lamina propria invasion and molecular biomarkers after rigorous validation in multi-institutional cohorts.

The emerging role of cardiovascular MRI for risk stratification in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoey, E.T.D.; Teoh, J.K.; Das, I.; Ganeshan, A.; Simpson, H.; Watkin, R.W.

2014-01-01

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is the most common inheritable cardiovascular disorder. Although many HCM patients remain asymptomatic, sudden death (SD) can occur as the initial manifestation of the disease. It has been hypothesized that myocardial architectural disorganization and scarring represent an unstable electrophysiological substrate that creates susceptibility to malignant ventricular arrhythmias. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) is widely used for the diagnosis of HCM, especially in patients with an incomplete or inconclusive echocardiography study. CMR can provide precise non-invasive assessment of biventricular function, wall thickness, and assessment of myocardial fibrosis, using inversion recovery gadolinium-enhanced sequences. CMR is also one of the most promising avenues of research in HCM, and in recent years, has provided many new insights and identified a number of potential adverse prognostic indicators for SD. Future work is still needed to integrate CMR findings into traditional risk assessment algorithms. This paper reviews the evolving role of CMR for risk stratification in HCM including assessment of myocardial hypertrophy, fibrosis and ischaemia

The prostate cancer risk stratification (ProCaRS) project: Recursive partitioning risk stratification analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodrigues, George; Lukka, Himu; Warde, Padraig; Brundage, Michael; Souhami, Luis; Crook, Juanita; Cury, Fabio; Catton, Charles; Mok, Gary; Martin, Andre-Guy; Vigneault, Eric; Morris, Jim; Warner, Andrew; Gonzalez Maldonado, Sandra; Pickles, Tom

2013-01-01

Background: The Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada (GUROC) published a three-group risk stratification (RS) system to assist prostate cancer decision-making in 2001. The objective of this project is to use the ProCaRS database to statistically model the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of a proposed new multi-group RS schema. Methods: The RS analyses utilized the ProCaRS database that consists of 7974 patients from four Canadian institutions. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was utilized to explore the sub-stratification of groups defined by the existing three-group GUROC scheme. 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and the Net Reclassification Index were both used to assess multivariable models and compare the predictive accuracy of existing and proposed RS systems, respectively. Results: The recursive partitioning analysis has suggested that the existing GUROC classification system could be altered to accommodate as many as six separate and statistical unique groups based on differences in BFFS (C-index 0.67 and AUC 0.70). GUROC low-risk patients would be divided into new favorable-low and low-risk groups based on PSA ⩽6 and PSA >6. GUROC intermediate-risk patients can be subclassified into low-intermediate and high-intermediate groups. GUROC high-intermediate-risk is defined as existing GUROC intermediate-risk with PSA >=10 AND either T2b/c disease or T1T2a disease with Gleason 7. GUROC high-risk patients would be subclassified into an additional extreme-risk group (GUROC high-risk AND (positive cores ⩾87.5% OR PSA >30). Conclusions: Proposed RS subcategories have been identified by a RPA of the ProCaRS database

Asymptomatic internal carotid artery stenosis and cerebrovascular risk stratification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nicolaides, Andrew N; Kakkos, Stavros K; Kyriacou, Efthyvoulos

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the cerebrovascular risk stratification potential of baseline degree of stenosis, clinical features, and ultrasonic plaque characteristics in patients with asymptomatic internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis.......The purpose of this study was to determine the cerebrovascular risk stratification potential of baseline degree of stenosis, clinical features, and ultrasonic plaque characteristics in patients with asymptomatic internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis....

Combination of Bcl-2 and MYC protein expression improves high-risk stratification in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang J

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Jing Wang,* Min Zhou,* Jing-Yan Xu,* Bing Chen, Jian OuyangDepartment of Hematology, The Affiliated Drum Tower Hospital of Nanjing University Medical School, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this work and should be considered as cofirst authorsPurpose: To evaluate whether the addition of two biological markers (MYC and BCL-2 protein overexpression improves the stratification of high-risk patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL.Method: Seven risk factors were identified at diagnosis, and a maximum of 7 points were assigned to each patient. The patients were classified according to four risk groups: low (0–1, low-intermediate (2–3, high-intermediate (4, and high (5–7. Only high-risk patients with DLBCL were included in this analysis. We retrospectively examined 20 cases from 2008 to 2013 at the Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital.Results: The median expression of MYC protein was 60%, and 17 of 20 (65% evaluable cases overexpressed MYC. The median expression of BCL-2 protein was also 60%. Eighteen of 20 (90% evaluable cases showed BCL-2 overexpression. Additionally, 12 out of 20 cases (60% demonstrated coexpression of MYC and BCL-2 proteins. The percentages of overall survival and progression-free survival at the median follow-up time (36 months were 33.3%±16.1% and 16.9%±13.5%, respectively. By comparison, nine, four, and 20 patients were classified as high risk based on the International Prognostic Index (IPI, National Comprehensive Cancer Network(NCCN-IPI, and revised IPI criteria, respectively. According to the IPI and NCCN-IPI stratification, the risk groups demonstrated closely overlapping survival curves. In addition, four out of 20 cases were identified as low-intermediate risk according to the NCCN-IPI criteria.Conclusion: The addition of MYC and BCL-2 protein expression to the IPI could identify a subset of DLBCL patients with high-risk clinicopathological characteristics and

Quantitative risk stratification in Markov chains with limiting conditional distributions.

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Chan, David C; Pollett, Philip K; Weinstein, Milton C

2009-01-01

Many clinical decisions require patient risk stratification. The authors introduce the concept of limiting conditional distributions, which describe the equilibrium proportion of surviving patients occupying each disease state in a Markov chain with death. Such distributions can quantitatively describe risk stratification. The authors first establish conditions for the existence of a positive limiting conditional distribution in a general Markov chain and describe a framework for risk stratification using the limiting conditional distribution. They then apply their framework to a clinical example of a treatment indicated for high-risk patients, first to infer the risk of patients selected for treatment in clinical trials and then to predict the outcomes of expanding treatment to other populations of risk. For the general chain, a positive limiting conditional distribution exists only if patients in the earliest state have the lowest combined risk of progression or death. The authors show that in their general framework, outcomes and population risk are interchangeable. For the clinical example, they estimate that previous clinical trials have selected the upper quintile of patient risk for this treatment, but they also show that expanded treatment would weakly dominate this degree of targeted treatment, and universal treatment may be cost-effective. Limiting conditional distributions exist in most Markov models of progressive diseases and are well suited to represent risk stratification quantitatively. This framework can characterize patient risk in clinical trials and predict outcomes for other populations of risk.

Diagnostic and prognostic stratification in the emergency department using urinary biomarkers of nephron damage: a multicenter prospective cohort study.

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Nickolas, Thomas L; Schmidt-Ott, Kai M; Canetta, Pietro; Forster, Catherine; Singer, Eugenia; Sise, Meghan; Elger, Antje; Maarouf, Omar; Sola-Del Valle, David Antonio; O'Rourke, Matthew; Sherman, Evan; Lee, Peter; Geara, Abdallah; Imus, Philip; Guddati, Achuta; Polland, Allison; Rahman, Wasiq; Elitok, Saban; Malik, Nasir; Giglio, James; El-Sayegh, Suzanne; Devarajan, Prasad; Hebbar, Sudarshan; Saggi, Subodh J; Hahn, Barry; Kettritz, Ralph; Luft, Friedrich C; Barasch, Jonathan

2012-01-17

This study aimed to determine the diagnostic and prognostic value of urinary biomarkers of intrinsic acute kidney injury (AKI) when patients were triaged in the emergency department. Intrinsic AKI is associated with nephron injury and results in poor clinical outcomes. Several urinary biomarkers have been proposed to detect and measure intrinsic AKI. In a multicenter prospective cohort study, 5 urinary biomarkers (urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, kidney injury molecule-1, urinary liver-type fatty acid binding protein, urinary interleukin-18, and cystatin C) were measured in 1,635 unselected emergency department patients at the time of hospital admission. We determined whether the biomarkers diagnosed intrinsic AKI and predicted adverse outcomes during hospitalization. All biomarkers were elevated in intrinsic AKI, but urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin was most useful (81% specificity, 68% sensitivity at a 104-ng/ml cutoff) and predictive of the severity and duration of AKI. Intrinsic AKI was strongly associated with adverse in-hospital outcomes. Urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin and urinary kidney injury molecule 1 predicted a composite outcome of dialysis initiation or death during hospitalization, and both improved the net risk classification compared with conventional assessments. These biomarkers also identified a substantial subpopulation with low serum creatinine at hospital admission, but who were at risk of adverse events. Urinary biomarkers of nephron damage enable prospective diagnostic and prognostic stratification in the emergency department. Copyright © 2012 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk stratification in emergency patients by copeptin

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, Kasper; Gøtze, Jens P; Dalsgaard, Morten

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Rapid risk stratification is a core task in emergency medicine. Identifying patients at high and low risk shortly after admission could help clinical decision-making regarding treatment, level of observation, allocation of resources and post discharge follow-up. The purpose of the pre...

Can metabolic tumor parameters on primary staging 18F-FDG PET/CT aid in risk stratification of primary central nervous system lymphomas for patient management as a prognostic model?

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Okuyucu, K; Alagoz, E; Ince, S; Ozaydin, S; Arslan, N

Primary central nervous system (CNS) lymphoma is an aggressive and fatal extranodal non-Hodgkin lymphoma jailed in CNS at initial diagnosis. Its prognosis is poor and the disease has a fatal outcome when compared with systemic non-Hodgkin lymphoma. A few baseline risk stratification scoring systems have been suggested to estimate the prognosis mainly based on serum lactate dehydrogenase level,age, Karnofsky performance score, involvement of deep brain structures and cerebrospinal fluid protein concentration. 18 F-FDG PET/CT has a high prognostic value with respect to overall survival and disease-free survival in many cancers and lymphomas. We aimed to investigate metabolic tumor indexes on primary staging 18 F-FDG PET/CT as prognostic markers in primary CNS lymphoma. Fourteen patients with primary CNS diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (stage i) were enrolled in this retrospective cohort study. Primary staging 18 F-FDG PET/CT was performed and quantitative parameters like maximum standardized uptake value, average standardized uptake value, metabolic tumor volume and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were calculated for all patients before the treatment. Cox regression models were performed to determine their relation with survival time. In the evaluation of all potential risk factors impacting recurrence/metastases (age, sex, serum lactate dehydrogenase, involvement of deep brain structures, maximum standardized uptake value, average standardized uptake value, metabolic tumor volume, and TLG) with univariate analysis, TLG remained statistically significant (P=.02). Metabolic tumor parameters are useful in prognosis estimation of primary CNS lymphomas, especially TLG, which is the most important one and may play a role in patient management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMNIM. All rights reserved.

Prognostic stratification of ulcerated melanoma

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Bønnelykke-Behrndtz, Marie L; Schmidt, Henrik; Christensen, Ib J

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: For patients with melanoma, ulceration is an important prognostic marker and interestingly also a predictive marker for the response of adjuvant interferon. A consensual definition and accurate assessment of ulceration are therefore crucial for proper staging and clinical management. We...

Prognostic and predictive biomarkers in colorectal cancer. Towards precision medicine

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reimers, Marlies Suzanne

2015-01-01

The aim of this thesis was to define prognostic and predictive biomarkers in colorectal cancer for improved risk stratification and treatment benefit in the individual patient, with the introduction of precision medicine in the near future as the ultimate goal. By definition, precision medicine is

Implementing system-wide risk stratification approaches: A review of critical success and failure factors.

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Huckel Schneider, Carmen; Gillespie, James A; Wilson, Andrew

2017-05-01

Risk stratification has become a widely used tool for linking people identified at risk of health deterioration to the most appropriate evidence-based care. This article systematically reviews recent literature to determine key factors that have been identified as critical enablers and/or barriers to successful implementation of risk stratification tools at a system level. A systematic search found 23 articles and four promising protocols for inclusion in the review, covering the use to 20 different risk stratification tools. These articles reported on only a small fraction of the risk stratification tools used in health systems; suggesting that while the development and statistical validation of risk stratification algorithms is widely reported, there has been little published evaluation of how they are implemented in real-world settings. Controlled studies provided some evidence that the use of risk stratification tools in combination with a care management plan offer patient benefits and that the use of a risk stratification tool to determine components of a care management plan may contribute to reductions in hospital readmissions, patient satisfaction and improved patient outcomes. Studies with the strongest focus on implementation used qualitative and case study methods. Among these, the literature converged on four key areas of implementation that were found to be critical for overcoming barriers to success: the engagement of clinicians and safeguarding equity, both of which address barriers of acceptance; the health system context to address administrative, political and system design barriers; and data management and integration to address logistical barriers.

A novel prognostic indicator for in-hospital and 4-year outcomes in patients with pulmonary embolism: TIMI risk index.

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Keskin, Muhammed; Güvenç, Tolga Sinan; Hayıroğlu, Mert İlker; Kaya, Adnan; Tatlısu, Mustafa Adem; Avşar, Şahin; Öz, Ahmet; Keskin, Taha; Uzun, Ahmet Okan; Kozan, Ömer

2017-10-01

Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk index (TRI) was recently evaluated in patients with acute myocardial infarction and found as an important prognostic index. In the current study, we evaluated the prognostic value of TRI in patients with moderate-high and high risk pulmonary embolism (PE) who were treated with thrombolytic agents. We retrospectively evaluated the in-hospital and long-term (4-year) prognostic impact of TRI in a total number of 456 patients with moderate-high and high risk PE. Patients were stratified by quartiles (Q) of admission TRI. In-hospital analysis revealed significantly higher rates of in-hospital death for patients with TRI in Q4. After adjustment for confounding baseline variables, TRI in Q4 was associated with 2.8-fold hazard of in-hospital death. Upon multivariate analysis, admission TRI in Q4 vs. Q1-3 was associated with 3.1 fold hazard of 4-year mortality rate. TRI in Q4, as compared to Q1-3, was significantly predictive of short term and long-term outcomes in PE patients who treated with thrombolytic agents. Our data suggest TRI to be an independent, feasible, and cost-effective tool for rapid risk stratification in moderate-high and high risk PE patients who treated with thrombolytic agents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Anion gap as a prognostic tool for risk stratification in critically ill patients - a systematic review and meta-analysis.

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Glasmacher, Stella Andrea; Stones, William

2016-08-30

Lactate concentration is a robust predictor of mortality but in many low resource settings facilities for its analysis are not available. Anion gap (AG), calculated from clinical chemistry results, is a marker of metabolic acidosis and may be more easily obtained in such settings. In this systematic review and meta-analysis we investigated whether the AG predicts mortality in adult patients admitted to critical care settings. We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, The Cochrane Library and regional electronic databases from inception until May 2016. Studies conducted in any clinical setting that related AG to in-hospital mortality, in-intensive care unit mortality, 31-day mortality or comparable outcome measures were eligible for inclusion. Methodological quality of included studies was assessed using the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool. Descriptive meta-analysis was performed and the I(2) test was used to quantify heterogeneity. Subgroup analysis was undertaken to identify potential sources of heterogeneity between studies. Nineteen studies reporting findings in 12,497 patients were included. Overall, quality of studies was poor and most studies were rated as being at moderate or high risk of attrition bias and confounding. There was substantial diversity between studies with regards to clinical setting, age and mortality rates of patient cohorts. High statistical heterogeneity was found in the meta-analyses of area under the ROC curve (I(2) = 99 %) and mean difference (I(2) = 97 %) for the observed AG. Three studies reported good discriminatory power of the AG to predict mortality and were responsible for a large proportion of statistical heterogeneity. The remaining 16 studies reported poor to moderate ability of the AG to predict mortality. Subgroup analysis suggested that intravenous fluids affect the ability of the AG to predict mortality. Based on the limited quality of available evidence, a single AG measurement cannot be

Concordance for prognostic models with competing risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wolbers, Marcel; Blanche, Paul; Koller, Michael T

2014-01-01

The concordance probability is a widely used measure to assess discrimination of prognostic models with binary and survival endpoints. We formally define the concordance probability for a prognostic model of the absolute risk of an event of interest in the presence of competing risks and relate i...

Patient characteristics and stratification in medical treatment studies for metastatic colorectal cancer: a proposal for standardization of patient characteristic reporting and stratification.

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Sorbye, H; Köhne, C-H; Sargent, D J; Glimelius, B

2007-10-01

Prognostic factors have the potential to determine the survival of patients to a greater extent than current antineoplastic agents. Despite this knowledge, there is no consensus on, first, what patient characteristics to report and, second, what stratification factors to use in metastatic colorectal cancer trials. Seven leading oncology and medical journals were reviewed for phase II and III publications reporting on medical treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer patients during 2001-2005. One hundred and forty-three studies with 21 214 patients were identified. The reporting of patient characteristics and use of stratification was noted. Age, gender, performance status, metastases location, sites and adjuvant chemotherapy were often reported (99-63%). Laboratory values as alkaline phosphatase, lactate dehydrogenase and white blood cell count, repeatedly found to be of prognostic relevance, were rarely reported (5-9%). Stratification was used in all phase III trials; however, only study centre was used with any consistency. There is considerable inconsistency in the reporting of patient characteristics and use of stratification factors in metastatic colorectal cancer trials. We propose a standardization of patient characteristics reporting and stratification factors. A common set of characteristics and strata will aid in trial reporting, interpretation and future meta-analyses.

Prognostic risk stratification derived from individual patient level data for men with advanced penile squamous cell carcinoma receiving first-line systemic therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Pond, Gregory R; Di Lorenzo, Giuseppe; Necchi, Andrea; Eigl, Bernhard J; Kolinsky, Michael P; Chacko, Raju T; Dorff, Tanya B; Harshman, Lauren C; Milowsky, Matthew I; Lee, Richard J; Galsky, Matthew D; Federico, Piera; Bolger, Graeme; DeShazo, Mollie; Mehta, Amitkumar; Goyal, Jatinder; Sonpavde, Guru

2014-05-01

Prognostic factors in men with penile squamous cell carcinoma (PSCC) receiving systemic therapy are unknown. A prognostic classification system in this disease may facilitate interpretation of outcomes and guide rational drug development. We performed a retrospective analysis to identify prognostic factors in men with PSCC receiving first-line systemic therapy for advanced disease. Individual patient level data were obtained from 13 institutions to study prognostic factors in the context of first-line systemic therapy for advanced PSCC. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted to examine the prognostic effect of these candidate factors on progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS): age, stage, hemoglobin, neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, albumin, site of metastasis (visceral or nonvisceral), smoking, circumcision, regimen, ECOG performance status (PS), lymphovascular invasion, precancerous lesion, and surgery following chemotherapy. The effect of different treatments was then evaluated adjusting for factors in the prognostic model. The study included 140 eligible men. Mean age across all men was 57.0 years. Among them, 8.6%, 21.4%, and 70.0% of patients had stage 2, 3, and 4 diseases, respectively; 40.7% had ECOG PS ≥ 1, 47.4% had visceral metastases, and 73.6% received cisplatin-based chemotherapy. The multivariate model of poor prognostic factors included visceral metastases (Pstatistic of 0.657 and 0.677 for OS and PFS, respectively). The median OS for the entire population was 9 months. Median OS was not reached, 8, and 7 months for those with 0, 1, and both risk factors, respectively. Cisplatin-based regimens were associated with better OS (P = 0.017) but not PFS (P = 0.37) compared with noncisplatin-based regimens after adjusting for the 2 prognostic factors. In men with advanced PSCC receiving first-line systemic therapy, visceral metastases and ECOG PS ≥ 1 were poor prognostic factors. A prognostic model including

Strongly enhanced colorectal cancer risk stratification by combining family history and genetic risk score

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weigl K

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Korbinian Weigl,1,2 Jenny Chang-Claude,3,4 Phillip Knebel,5 Li Hsu,6 Michael Hoffmeister,1 Hermann Brenner1,2,7 1Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ, Heidelberg, 2German Cancer Consortium (DKTK, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ, Heidelberg, 3Unit of Genetic Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ, Heidelberg, 4University Cancer Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, 5Department for General, Visceral and Transplantation Surgery, University Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany; 6Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA; 7Division of Preventive Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ and National Center for Tumor Diseases (NCT, Heidelberg, Germany Background and aim: Family history (FH and genetic risk scores (GRSs are increasingly used for risk stratification for colorectal cancer (CRC screening. However, they were mostly considered alternatively rather than jointly. The aim of this study was to assess the potential of individual and joint risk stratification for CRC by FH and GRS.Patients and methods: A GRS was built based on the number of risk alleles in 53 previously identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms among 2,363 patients with a first diagnosis of CRC and 2,198 controls in DACHS [colorectal cancer: chances for prevention through screening], a population-based case-control study in Germany. Associations between GRS and FH with CRC risk were quantified by multiple logistic regression.Results: A total of 316 cases (13.4% and 214 controls (9.7% had a first-degree relative (FDR with CRC (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.86, 95% CI 1.52–2.29. A GRS in the highest decile was associated with a 3.0-fold increased risk of CRC (aOR 3.00, 95% CI 2.24–4.02 compared with the lowest decile. This association was tentatively more pronounced in older age groups. FH and GRS were essentially unrelated, and their

N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide on admission for early risk stratification of patients with chest pain and no ST-segment elevation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jernberg, Tomas; Stridsberg, Mats; Venge, Per; Lindahl, Bertil

2002-08-07

The study evaluated the prognostic value of single measurement of N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) obtained on admission in patients with symptoms suggestive of an acute coronary syndrome and no ST-segment elevation. Patients with symptoms suggestive of an acute coronary syndrome and no ST-segment elevation constitute a large and heterogeneous population. Early risk stratification has been based on clinical background factors, electrocardiography (ECG) and biochemical markers of myocardial damage. The neurohormonal activation has, so far, received less attention. The NT-proBNP was analyzed on admission in 755 patients admitted because of chest pain and no ST-segment elevation. Patients were followed concerning death for 40 months (median). The median NT-proBNP level was 400 (111 to 1646) ng/l. Compared to the lowest quartile, patients in the second, third and fourth quartiles had a relative risk of subsequent death of 4.2 (1.6 to 11.1), 10.7 (4.2 to 26.8) and 26.6 (10.8 to 65.5), respectively. When NT-proBNP was added to a Cox regression model including clinical background factors, ECG and troponin T, the NT-proBNP levels were independently associated with prognosis. A single measurement of NT-proBNP on admission will substantially improve the early risk stratification of patients with symptoms suggestive of an acute coronary syndrome and no ST-segment elevation. A combination of clinical background factors, ECG, troponin T and NT-proBNP obtained on admission will provide a highly discerning tool for risk stratification and further clinical decisions.

Predictive features of CT for risk stratifications in patients with primary gastrointestinal stromal tumour

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, Cuiping; Zhang, Xiang; Duan, Xiaohui; Hu, Huijun; Wang, Dongye; Shen, Jun

2016-01-01

To determine the predictive CT imaging features for risk stratifications in patients with primary gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs). One hundred and twenty-nine patients with histologically confirmed primary GISTs (diameter >2 cm) were enrolled. CT imaging features were reviewed. Tumour risk stratifications were determined according to the 2008 NIH criteria where GISTs were classified into four categories according to the tumour size, location, mitosis count, and tumour rupture. The association between risk stratifications and CT features was analyzed using univariate analysis, followed by multinomial logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. CT imaging features including tumour margin, size, shape, tumour growth pattern, direct organ invasion, necrosis, enlarged vessels feeding or draining the mass (EVFDM), lymphadenopathy, and contrast enhancement pattern were associated with the risk stratifications, as determined by univariate analysis (P < 0.05). Only lesion size, growth pattern and EVFDM remained independent risk factors in multinomial logistic regression analysis (OR = 3.480-100.384). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under curve of the obtained multinomial logistic regression model was 0.806 (95 % CI: 0.727-0.885). CT features including lesion size, tumour growth pattern, and EVFDM were predictors of the risk stratifications for GIST. (orig.)

The prognostic importance of heart failure and age in patients treated with primary angioplasty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Henriques, Jose P. S.; Zijlstra, Felix; de Boer, Menko-Jan; van 't Hof, Arnoud W. J.; Gosselink, A. T. Marcel; Dambrink, Jan-Henk E.; Suryapranata, Harry; Hoorntje, Jan C. A.

2003-01-01

Effective risk stratification is essential in the management of patients with acute myocardial infarction. Available models have not yet been studied and validated in patients treated with primary angioplasty for acute myocardial infarction. The prognostic value of heart failure defined by Killip

Numerical analysis on hydrogen stratification and post-inerting of hydrogen risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng, Cheng; Tong, Lili; Cao, Xuewu

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A three-dimensional computational model was built and the applicability was discussed. • The formation of helium stratification was further studied. • Three influencing factors on the post-inerting of hydrogen risk were analyzed. - Abstract: In the case of severe accidents, the risk of hydrogen explosion threatens the integrity of the nuclear reactor containment. According to nuclear regulations, hydrogen control is required to ensure the safe operation of the nuclear reactor. In this study, the method of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has been applied to analyze process of hydrogen stratification and the post-inerting of hydrogen risk in the Large-Scale Gas Mixing Facility. A three-dimensional computational model was built and the applicability of different turbulence models was discussed. The result shows that the helium concentration calculated by the standard k–ε turbulence model is closest to the experiment data. Through analyzing the formation of helium stratification at different injection velocities, it is found that when the injection mass flow is constant and the injection velocity of helium increases, the mixture of helium and air is enhanced while there is rarely influence on the formation of helium stratification. In addition, the influences of mass flow rate, injection location and direction and inert gas on the post-inerting of hydrogen risk have been analyzed and the results are as follows: with the increasing of mass flow rate, the mitigation effect of nitrogen on hydrogen risk will be further improved; there is an obvious local difference between the mitigation effects of nitrogen on hydrogen risk in different injection directions and locations; when the inert gas is injected at the same mass flow rate, the mitigation effect of steam on hydrogen risk is better than that of nitrogen. This study can provide technical support for the mitigation of hydrogen risk in the small LWR containment.

New prognostic model for extranodal natural killer/T cell lymphoma, nasal type.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Qingqing; Luo, Xiaolin; Zhang, Guanrong; Huang, Huiqiang; Huang, Hui; Lin, Tongyu; Jiang, Wenqi; Xia, Zhongjun; Young, Ken H

2014-09-01

Extranodal natural killer/T cell lymphoma, nasal type (ENKTL) is an aggressive disease with a poor prognosis, requiring risk stratification in affected patients. We designed a new prognostic model specifically for ENKTL to identify high-risk patients who need more aggressive therapy. We retrospectively reviewed 158 patients who were newly diagnosed with ENKTL. The estimated 5-year overall survival rate was 39.4 %. Independent prognostic factors included total protein (TP) 100 mg/dL, and Korean Prognostic Index (KPI) score ≥2. We constructed a new prognostic model by combining these prognostic factors: group 1 (64 cases (41.0 %)), no adverse factors; group 2 (58 cases (37.2 %)), one adverse factor; and group 3 (34 cases (21.8 %)), two or three adverse factors. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rates of these groups were 66.7, 23.0, and 5.9 %, respectively (p KPI model alone (p KPI model alone.

Lifetime risks for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: multivariable risk stratification.

Science.gov (United States)

Vlak, Monique H M; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Greebe, Paut; Greving, Jacoba P; Algra, Ale

2013-06-01

The overall incidence of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) in western populations is around 9 per 100 000 person-years, which confers to a lifetime risk of around half per cent. Risk factors for aSAH are usually expressed as relative risks and suggest that absolute risks vary considerably according to risk factor profiles, but such estimates are lacking. We aimed to estimate incidence and lifetime risks of aSAH according to risk factor profiles. We used data from 250 patients admitted with aSAH and 574 sex-matched and age-matched controls, who were randomly retrieved from general practitioners files. We determined independent prognostic factors with multivariable logistic regression analyses and assessed discriminatory performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Based on the prognostic model we predicted incidences and lifetime risks of aSAH for different risk factor profiles. The four strongest independent predictors for aSAH, namely current smoking (OR 6.0; 95% CI 4.1 to 8.6), a positive family history for aSAH (4.0; 95% CI 2.3 to 7.0), hypertension (2.4; 95% CI 1.5 to 3.8) and hypercholesterolaemia (0.2; 95% CI 0.1 to 0.4), were used in the final prediction model. This model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.76). Depending on sex, age and the four predictors, the incidence of aSAH ranged from 0.4/100 000 to 298/100 000 person-years and lifetime risk between 0.02% and 7.2%. The incidence and lifetime risk of aSAH in the general population varies widely according to risk factor profiles. Whether persons with high risks benefit from screening should be assessed in cost-effectiveness studies.

Quantitative modeling of clinical, cellular, and extracellular matrix variables suggest prognostic indicators in cancer: a model in neuroblastoma.

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Tadeo, Irene; Piqueras, Marta; Montaner, David; Villamón, Eva; Berbegall, Ana P; Cañete, Adela; Navarro, Samuel; Noguera, Rosa

2014-02-01

Risk classification and treatment stratification for cancer patients is restricted by our incomplete picture of the complex and unknown interactions between the patient's organism and tumor tissues (transformed cells supported by tumor stroma). Moreover, all clinical factors and laboratory studies used to indicate treatment effectiveness and outcomes are by their nature a simplification of the biological system of cancer, and cannot yet incorporate all possible prognostic indicators. A multiparametric analysis on 184 tumor cylinders was performed. To highlight the benefit of integrating digitized medical imaging into this field, we present the results of computational studies carried out on quantitative measurements, taken from stromal and cancer cells and various extracellular matrix fibers interpenetrated by glycosaminoglycans, and eight current approaches to risk stratification systems in patients with primary and nonprimary neuroblastoma. New tumor tissue indicators from both fields, the cellular and the extracellular elements, emerge as reliable prognostic markers for risk stratification and could be used as molecular targets of specific therapies. The key to dealing with personalized therapy lies in the mathematical modeling. The use of bioinformatics in patient-tumor-microenvironment data management allows a predictive model in neuroblastoma.

Risk stratification of patients with hypertension using exercise thallium-201 scintigraphy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iskandrian, A.S.; Hakki, A.H.; Kane, S.

1985-01-01

Hypertension (HT) is an important risk factor in coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiac morbidity and mortality. This study examined the value of clinical, ECG, exercise (EX) and thallium-201 imaging descriptors that identify patients (pts) with HT at high risk. The 337 pts in the study underwent EX thallium-201 testing for evaluation of chest pain due to suspected or proven CHD. The mean age was 55 years, of whom 79% were still on active anti-HT therapy at the time of the study. The EX thallium scintigrams were evaluated qualitatively and quantitively using circumferential profile analysis. The scans were abnormal in 162 pts (48%) and reversible perfusion defects were present in 106 of the 162 pts (65%). At a folllowup fo up to 74 months, (15 +- 9 mean +- SD), 11 pts had hard cardiac events: 2 died of cardiac causes and 9 had non-fatal acute myocardial infractions. There were no significant differences between those with and without events in age, EX heart rate and double product, EX duration, blood pressure and EX ECG changes. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis (Cox regression model) of important clinical, ECG, EX and thallium variables, identified the presence of abnormal EX images as the only predictor of outcome. (X/sup 2/ = 5.4, p< 0.02). No other variable provided additional prognostic information. Actuarial life table analysis showed that pts with abnormal images had significantly more events than those with normal images (p = 0.008, Mantel-Cox). Thus, EX thallium imaging is useful in risk stratification in pts with HT. The presence of abnormal images identify a subgroup at high risk for future events

Prognostic study of risk stratification among Japanese patients with ischemic heart disease using gated myocardial perfusion SPECT: J-ACCESS study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nishimura, Tsunehiko; Nakajima, Kenichi; Kusuoka, Hideo; Yamashina, Akira; Nishimura, Shigeyuki

2008-01-01

decreased cardiac function, as well as diabetes mellitus, could be predictors of high event rates and, thus, beneficial for risk stratification of Japanese patients with ischemic heart diseases. (orig.)

Randomization in clinical trials: stratification or minimization? The HERMES free simulation software.

Science.gov (United States)

Fron Chabouis, Hélène; Chabouis, Francis; Gillaizeau, Florence; Durieux, Pierre; Chatellier, Gilles; Ruse, N Dorin; Attal, Jean-Pierre

2014-01-01

Operative clinical trials are often small and open-label. Randomization is therefore very important. Stratification and minimization are two randomization options in such trials. The first aim of this study was to compare stratification and minimization in terms of predictability and balance in order to help investigators choose the most appropriate allocation method. Our second aim was to evaluate the influence of various parameters on the performance of these techniques. The created software generated patients according to chosen trial parameters (e.g., number of important prognostic factors, number of operators or centers, etc.) and computed predictability and balance indicators for several stratification and minimization methods over a given number of simulations. Block size and proportion of random allocations could be chosen. A reference trial was chosen (50 patients, 1 prognostic factor, and 2 operators) and eight other trials derived from this reference trial were modeled. Predictability and balance indicators were calculated from 10,000 simulations per trial. Minimization performed better with complex trials (e.g., smaller sample size, increasing number of prognostic factors, and operators); stratification imbalance increased when the number of strata increased. An inverse correlation between imbalance and predictability was observed. A compromise between predictability and imbalance still has to be found by the investigator but our software (HERMES) gives concrete reasons for choosing between stratification and minimization; it can be downloaded free of charge. This software will help investigators choose the appropriate randomization method in future two-arm trials.

The use of prognostic factors in metastatic renal cell carcinoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Haoran; Samawi, Haider; Heng, Daniel Y C

2015-12-01

Over the last decade, the treatment landscape of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) has evolved tremendously. The outcome of patients with mRCC has been improved since the advent of targeted therapy. In this review, we address the use of prognostic schema in the era of targeted treatment. This article summarizes the current available prognostic models and the evidence to support their use in clinical settings. Prognostic models can help guide clinicians in their decision making, as they have been validated in the first- and second-line targeted therapy settings as well as in non-clear cell mRCC. Prognostic factors are important in patient counseling, clinical trial stratification, and therapy planning. Very selected favorable-risk patients with minimal bulk and slow-growing disease could potentially be observed before needing treatment. Patients with poor-risk disease may be eligible for treatment with temsirolimus. Patients with a very poor prognosis may not be suitable candidates for cytoreductive nephrectomy. New biomarkers are on the horizon, though their roles need to be validated and their additive contribution to improve existing prognostic models examined. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developing a PTEN-ERG Signature to Improve Molecular Risk Stratification in Prostate Cancer

Science.gov (United States)

2017-10-01

AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-16-1-0737 TITLE: Developing a PTEN-ERG Signature to Improve Molecular Risk Stratification in Prostate Cancer PRINCIPAL...AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Developing a PTEN-ERG Signature to Improve Molecular Risk Stratification in Prostate Cancer 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH...that there exist distinctive molecular correlates of PTEN loss in the context of ETS-negative versus ETS-positive human prostate cancers and that

Personalized treatment of women with early breast cancer: a risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis of adjuvant chemotherapy accounting for companion prognostic tests OncotypeDX and Adjuvant!Online.

Science.gov (United States)

Jahn, Beate; Rochau, Ursula; Kurzthaler, Christina; Hubalek, Michael; Miksad, Rebecca; Sroczynski, Gaby; Paulden, Mike; Bundo, Marvin; Stenehjem, David; Brixner, Diana; Krahn, Murray; Siebert, Uwe

2017-10-16

Due to high survival rates and the relatively small benefit of adjuvant therapy, the application of personalized medicine (PM) through risk stratification is particularly beneficial in early breast cancer (BC) to avoid unnecessary harms from treatment. The new 21-gene assay (OncotypeDX, ODX) is a promising prognostic score for risk stratification that can be applied in conjunction with Adjuvant!Online (AO) to guide personalized chemotherapy decisions for early BC patients. Our goal was to evaluate risk-group specific cost effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for women with early stage BC in Austria based on AO and ODX risk stratification. A previously validated discrete event simulation model was applied to a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old women over a lifetime horizon. We simulated twelve risk groups derived from the joint application of ODX and AO and included respective additional costs. The primary outcomes of interest were life-years gained, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER). The robustness of results and decisions derived were tested in sensitivity analyses. A cross-country comparison of results was performed. Chemotherapy is dominated (i.e., less effective and more costly) for patients with 1) low ODX risk independent of AO classification; and 2) low AO risk and intermediate ODX risk. For patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high ODX risk, the ICER is below 15,000 EUR/QALY (potentially cost effective depending on the willingness-to-pay). Applying the AO risk classification alone would miss risk groups where chemotherapy is dominated and thus should not be considered. These results are sensitive to changes in the probabilities of distant recurrence but not to changes in the costs of chemotherapy or the ODX test. Based on our modeling study, chemotherapy is effective and cost effective for Austrian patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high

Prognostic impact of demographic factors and clinical features on the mode of death in high-risk patients after myocardial infarction--a combined analysis from multicenter trials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yap, Yee Guan; Duong, Trinh; Bland, J Martin

2005-01-01

mortality, whereas diabetes was only predictive of all-cause mortality. Smoking habit and atrial fibrillation had no prognostic value. Similar parameters were also predictive of short-term mortality, but not identical. CONCLUSIONS: Our study has shown that in high-risk patients post MI, who have been...... preselected using LVEF or frequent ventricular premature beats, demographic and clinical features are powerful predictors of mortality in the thrombolytic era. We propose that demographic and clinical factors should be considered when designing risk stratification or survival studies, or when identifying high...

PROGNOSTIC SIGNIFICANCE OF CD56 EXPRESSION IN ACUTE LEUKEMIAS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. M. Ahmed

2014-12-01

Conclusions. CD56 antigenic expression in AML cases represents an adverse prognostic factor. It should be regularly investigated in cases of AML for better prognostic stratification and assessment. KEY WORDS: CD56; leukemia, myeloid; prognosis

Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group

Science.gov (United States)

Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A. N.; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L.; Bennett, John M.; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R.; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

2015-01-01

International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%–20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34+) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34+ peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34+ blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). PMID:25344522

Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group.

Science.gov (United States)

Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A N; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L; Bennett, John M; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

2015-02-01

International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%-20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34(+)) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34(+) peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34(+) blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

Comparing an Unstructured Risk Stratification to Published Guidelines in Acute Coronary Syndromes.

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, Ann-Jean C C; Hagemeijer, Anouk; Tortolani, Bess; Byrd, Bethany A; Parekh, Amisha; Datillo, Paris; Birkhahn, Robert

2015-09-01

Guidelines are designed to encompass the needs of the majority of patients with a particular condition. The American Heart Association (AHA) in conjunction with the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) developed risk stratification guidelines to aid physicians with accurate and efficient diagnosis and management of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). While useful in a primary care setting, in the unique environment of an emergency department (ED), the feasibility of incorporating guidelines into clinical workflow remains in question. We aim to compare emergency physicians' (EP) clinical risk stratification ability to AHA/ACC/ACEP guidelines for ACS, and assessed each for accuracy in predicting ACS. We conducted a prospective observational cohort study in an urban teaching hospital ED. All patients presenting to the ED with chest pain who were evaluated for ACS had two risk stratification scores assigned: one by the treating physician based on clinical evaluation and the other by the AHA/ACC/ACEP guideline aforementioned. The patient's ACS risk stratification classified by the EP was compared to AHA/ACC/ACEP guidelines. Patients were contacted at 30 days following the index ED visit to determine all cause mortality, unscheduled hospital/ED revisits, and objective cardiac testing performed. We enrolled 641 patients presenting for evaluation by 21 different EPs. There was a difference between the physician's clinical assessment used in the ED, and the AHA/ACC/ACEP task force guidelines. EPs were more likely to assess patients as low risk (40%), while AHA/ACC/ACEP guidelines were more likely to classify patients as intermediate (45%) or high (45%) risk. Of the 119 (19%) patients deemed high risk by EP evaluation, 38 (32%) were diagnosed with ACS. AHA/ACC/ACEP guidelines classified only 57 (9%) patients low risk with 56 (98%) of those patients diagnosed with no ACS. In the ED, physicians are more efficient

Prognostic significance of peripheral monocyte count in patients with extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Jia-Jia; Li, Zhi-Ming; Li, Ya-Jun; Xia, Yi; Wang, Yu; Wei, Wen-Xiao; Zhu, Ying-Jie; Lin, Tong-Yu; Huang, Hui-Qiang; Jiang, Wen-Qi

2013-01-01

Extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL) has heterogeneous clinical manifestations and prognosis. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic impact of absolute monocyte count (AMC) in ENKL, and provide some immunologically relevant information for better risk stratification in patients with ENKL. Retrospective data from 163 patients newly diagnosed with ENKL were analyzed. The absolute monocyte count (AMC) at diagnosis was analyzed as continuous and dichotomized variables. Independent prognostic factors of survival were determined by Cox regression analysis. The AMC at diagnosis were related to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with ENKL. Multivariate analysis identified AMC as independent prognostic factors of survival, independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and Korean prognostic index (KPI). The prognostic index incorporating AMC and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), another surrogate factor of immune status, could be used to stratify all 163 patients with ENKL into different prognostic groups. For patients who received chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy (102 cases), the three AMC/ALC index categories identified patients with significantly different survivals. When superimposed on IPI or KPI categories, the AMC/ALC index was better able to identify high-risk patients in the low-risk IPI or KPI category. The baseline peripheral monocyte count is shown to be an effective prognostic indicator of survival in ENKL patients. The prognostic index related to tumor microenvironment might be helpful to identify high-risk patients with ENKL

Prognostic significance of peripheral monocyte count in patients with extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jia-Jia; Li, Ya-Jun; Xia, Yi; Wang, Yu; Wei, Wen-Xiao; Zhu, Ying-Jie; Lin, Tong-Yu; Huang, Hui-Qiang; Jiang, Wen-Qi; Li, Zhi-Ming

2013-05-03

Extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL) has heterogeneous clinical manifestations and prognosis. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic impact of absolute monocyte count (AMC) in ENKL, and provide some immunologically relevant information for better risk stratification in patients with ENKL. Retrospective data from 163 patients newly diagnosed with ENKL were analyzed. The absolute monocyte count (AMC) at diagnosis was analyzed as continuous and dichotomized variables. Independent prognostic factors of survival were determined by Cox regression analysis. The AMC at diagnosis were related to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with ENKL. Multivariate analysis identified AMC as independent prognostic factors of survival, independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and Korean prognostic index (KPI). The prognostic index incorporating AMC and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), another surrogate factor of immune status, could be used to stratify all 163 patients with ENKL into different prognostic groups. For patients who received chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy (102 cases), the three AMC/ALC index categories identified patients with significantly different survivals. When superimposed on IPI or KPI categories, the AMC/ALC index was better able to identify high-risk patients in the low-risk IPI or KPI category. The baseline peripheral monocyte count is shown to be an effective prognostic indicator of survival in ENKL patients. The prognostic index related to tumor microenvironment might be helpful to identify high-risk patients with ENKL.

Noninvasive risk stratification of lethal ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death after myocardial infarction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenji Yodogawa, MD

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Prediction of lethal ventricular arrhythmias leading to sudden cardiac death is one of the most important and challenging problems after myocardial infarction (MI. Identification of MI patients who are prone to ventricular tachyarrhythmias allows for an indication of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator placement. To date, noninvasive techniques such as microvolt T-wave alternans (MTWA, signal-averaged electrocardiography (SAECG, heart rate variability (HRV, and heart rate turbulence (HRT have been developed for this purpose. MTWA is an indicator of repolarization abnormality and is currently the most promising risk-stratification tool for predicting malignant ventricular arrhythmias. Similarly, late potentials detected by SAECG are indices of depolarization abnormality and are useful in risk stratification. However, the role of SAECG is limited because of its low predictive accuracy. Abnormal HRV and HRT patterns reflect autonomic disturbances, which may increase the risk of lethal ventricular arrhythmias, but the existing evidence is insufficient. Further studies of noninvasive assessment may provide a new insight into risk stratification in post-MI patients.

Non-Rhabdomyosarcoma Soft Tissue Sarcomas in Children: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Analysis Validating COG Risk Stratifications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waxweiler, Timothy V., E-mail: timothy.waxweiler@ucdenver.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado (United States); Rusthoven, Chad G. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado (United States); Proper, Michelle S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Billings Clinic, Billings, Montana (United States); Cost, Carrye R. [Division of Hematology and Oncology, Department of Pediatrics, University of Colorado Denver School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado (United States); Cost, Nicholas G. [Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, University of Colorado Denver School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado (United States); Donaldson, Nathan [Department of Orthopedics, University of Colorado Denver School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado (United States); Garrington, Timothy; Greffe, Brian S. [Division of Hematology and Oncology, Department of Pediatrics, University of Colorado Denver School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado (United States); Heare, Travis [Department of Orthopedics, University of Colorado Denver School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado (United States); Macy, Margaret E. [Division of Hematology and Oncology, Department of Pediatrics, University of Colorado Denver School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado (United States); Liu, Arthur K. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado (United States)

2015-06-01

Purpose: Non-rhabdomyosarcoma soft tissue sarcomas (NRSTS) are a heterogeneous group of sarcomas that encompass over 35 histologies. With an incidence of ∼500 cases per year in the United States in those <20 years of age, NRSTS are rare and therefore difficult to study in pediatric populations. We used the large Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to validate the prognostic ability of the Children's Oncology Group (COG) risk classification system and to define patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics. Methods and Materials: From SEER data from 1988 to 2007, we identified patients ≤18 years of age with NRSTS. Data for age, sex, year of diagnosis, race, registry, histology, grade, primary size, primary site, stage, radiation therapy, and survival outcomes were analyzed. Patients with nonmetastatic grossly resected low-grade tumors of any size or high-grade tumors ≤5 cm were considered low risk. Cases of nonmetastatic tumors that were high grade, >5 cm, or unresectable were considered intermediate risk. Patients with nodal or distant metastases were considered high risk. Results: A total of 941 patients met the review criteria. On univariate analysis, black race, malignant peripheral nerve sheath (MPNST) histology, tumors >5 cm, nonextremity primary, lymph node involvement, radiation therapy, and higher risk group were associated with significantly worse overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). On multivariate analysis, MPNST histology, chemotherapy-resistant histology, and higher risk group were significantly poor prognostic factors for OS and CSS. Compared to low-risk patients, intermediate patients showed poorer OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 6.08, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.53-10.47, P<.001) and CSS (HR: 6.27; 95% CI: 3.44-11.43, P<.001), and high-risk patients had the worst OS (HR: 13.35, 95% CI: 8.18-21.76, P<.001) and CSS (HR: 14.65, 95% CI: 8.49-25.28, P<.001). Conclusions: The current COG risk group

Risk stratification in secondary cardiovascular prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Lazzeroni, Davide; Coruzzi, Paolo

2018-02-19

Worldwide, more than 7 million people experience acute myocardial infarction (AMI) every year (1), and although substantial reduction in mortality has been obtained in recent decades, one-year mortality rates are still in the range of 10%. Among patients who survive AMI, 20% suffer a second cardiovascular event in the first year and approximately 50% of major coronary events occur in those with a previous hospital discharge diagnosis of AMI (2). Despite the evidence that lifestyle changes and risk factors management strongly improve long-term prognosis, preventive care post-AMI remains sub-optimal. Cross-sectional data from the serially conducted EUROASPIRE surveys in patients with established ischemic heart disease (IHD) and people at high cardiovascular risk have demonstrated a high prevalence of unhealthy lifestyle, modifiable risk factors and inadequate use of drug therapies to achieve blood pressure and lipid goals (3). Secondary prevention programmes, defined as the level of preventive care focusing on early risk stratification, are highly recommended in all IHD patients, to restore quality of life, maintain or improve functional capacity and prevent recurrence.

Risk Stratification and Shared Decision Making for Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Schroy, Paul C; Duhovic, Emir; Chen, Clara A; Heeren, Timothy C; Lopez, William; Apodaca, Danielle L; Wong, John B

2016-05-01

Eliciting patient preferences within the context of shared decision making has been advocated for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet providers often fail to comply with patient preferences that differ from their own. To determine whether risk stratification for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) influences provider willingness to comply with patient preferences when selecting a desired CRC screening option. Randomized controlled trial. Asymptomatic, average-risk patients due for CRC screening in an urban safety net health care setting. Patients were randomized 1:1 to a decision aid alone (n= 168) or decision aid plus risk assessment (n= 173) arm between September 2012 and September 2014. The primary outcome was concordance between patient preference and test ordered; secondary outcomes included patient satisfaction with the decision-making process, screening intentions, test completion rates, and provider satisfaction. Although providers perceived risk stratification to be useful in selecting an appropriate screening test for their average-risk patients, no significant differences in concordance were observed between the decision aid alone and decision aid plus risk assessment groups (88.1% v. 85.0%,P= 0.40) or high- and low-risk groups (84.5% v. 87.1%,P= 0.51). Concordance was highest for colonoscopy and relatively low for tests other than colonoscopy, regardless of study arm or risk group. Failure to comply with patient preferences was negatively associated with satisfaction with the decision-making process, screening intentions, and test completion rates. Single-institution setting; lack of provider education about the utility of risk stratification into their decision making. Providers perceived risk stratification to be useful in their decision making but often failed to comply with patient preferences for tests other than colonoscopy, even among those deemed to be at low risk of ACN. © The Author(s) 2016.

Noninvasive risk stratification for sudden death in asymptomatic patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Novella, John; DeBiasi, Ralph M; Coplan, Neil L; Suri, Ranji; Keller, Seth

2014-01-01

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) as the first clinical manifestation of Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome is a well-documented, although rare occurrence. The incidence of SCD in patients with WPW ranges from 0% to 0.39% annually. Controversy exists regarding risk stratification for patients with preexcitation on surface electrocardiogram (ECG), particularly in those who are asymptomatic. This article focuses on the role of risk stratification using exercise and pharmacologic testing in patients with WPW pattern on ECG.

Clinical Studies in Risk Stratification & Therapy of Thoracic Aortic Disease

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kamman, AV

2017-01-01

For this thesis we aimed to summarize outcomes and optimal treatment modality for thoracic aortic disease, discuss new imaging techniques and improve the use of current imaging modalities. Furthermore, we aimed to improve risk stratification for uncomplicated type B aortic dissection (TBAD) and

Short-term versus long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas eVoss

2013-12-01

Full Text Available In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3%-2% of the general population. The investigation of 24h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF. However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients (221 at low risk (IHFLR and 35 at high risk (IHFHR a 24h beat-to-beat time series b the first 30min segment c the 30min most stationary day segment and d the 30min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 hours and for each 30min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p

Context-dependent interpretation of the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in colorectal cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popovici, Vlad; Budinska, Eva; Bosman, Fred T; Tejpar, Sabine; Roth, Arnaud D; Delorenzi, Mauro

2013-01-01

The mutation status of the BRAF and KRAS genes has been proposed as prognostic biomarker in colorectal cancer. Of them, only the BRAF V600E mutation has been validated independently as prognostic for overall survival and survival after relapse, while the prognostic value of KRAS mutation is still unclear. We investigated the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in various contexts defined by stratifications of the patient population. We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer from the PETACC-3 clinical trial (N = 1,423), by assessing the prognostic value of the BRAF and KRAS mutations in subpopulations defined by all possible combinations of the following clinico-pathological variables: T stage, N stage, tumor site, tumor grade and microsatellite instability status. In each such subpopulation, the prognostic value was assessed by log rank test for three endpoints: overall survival, relapse-free survival, and survival after relapse. The significance level was set to 0.01 for Bonferroni-adjusted p-values, and a second threshold for a trend towards statistical significance was set at 0.05 for unadjusted p-values. The significance of the interactions was tested by Wald test, with significance level of 0.05. In stage II-III colorectal cancer, BRAF mutation was confirmed a marker of poor survival only in subpopulations involving microsatellite stable and left-sided tumors, with higher effects than in the whole population. There was no evidence for prognostic value in microsatellite instable or right-sided tumor groups. We found that BRAF was also prognostic for relapse-free survival in some subpopulations. We found no evidence that KRAS mutations had prognostic value, although a trend was observed in some stratifications. We also show evidence of heterogeneity in survival of patients with BRAF V600E mutation. The BRAF mutation represents an additional risk factor only in some subpopulations of colorectal cancers, in

Utility of the exercise electrocardiogram testing in sudden cardiac death risk stratification.

Science.gov (United States)

Refaat, Marwan M; Hotait, Mostafa; Tseng, Zian H

2014-07-01

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) remains a major public health problem. Current established criteria identifying those at risk of sudden arrhythmic death, and likely to benefit from implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs), are neither sensitive nor specific. Exercise electrocardiogram (ECG) testing was traditionally used for information concerning patients' symptoms, exercise capacity, cardiovascular function, myocardial ischemia detection, and hemodynamic responses during activity in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. We conducted a systematic review of MEDLINE on the utility of exercise ECG testing in SCD risk stratification. Exercise testing can unmask suspected primary electrical diseases in certain patients (catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia or concealed long QT syndrome) and can be effectively utilized to risk stratify patients at an increased (such as early repolarization syndrome and Brugada syndrome) or decreased risk of SCD, such as the loss of preexcitation on exercise testing in asymptomatic Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. Exercise ECG testing helps in SCD risk stratification in patients with and without arrhythmogenic hereditary syndromes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prognostic value of exercise echocardiography: validation of a new risk index combining echocardiographic, treadmill, and exercise electrocardiographic parameters.

Science.gov (United States)

Mazur, Wojciech; Rivera, Jose M; Khoury, Alexander F; Basu, Abhijeet G; Perez-Verdia, Alejandro; Marks, Gary F; Chang, Su Min; Olmos, Leopoldo; Quiñones, Miguel A; Zoghbi, William A

2003-04-01

Exercise (Ex) echocardiography has been shown to have significant prognostic power, independent of other known predictors of risk from an Ex stress test. The purpose of this study was to evaluate a risk index, incorporating echocardiographic and conventional Ex variables, for a more comprehensive risk stratification and identification of a very low-risk group. Two consecutive, mutually exclusive populations referred for treadmill Ex echocardiography with the Bruce protocol were investigated: hypothesis-generating (388 patients; 268 males; age 55 +/- 13 years) and hypothesis-testing (105 patients; 61 males age: 54 +/- 14 years).Cardiac events included cardiac death, myocardial infarction, late revascularization (>90 days), hospital admission for unstable angina, and admission for heart failure. Mean follow-up in the hypothesis-generating population was 3.1 years. There were 38 cardiac events. Independent predictors of events by multivariate analysis were: Ex wall motion score index (odds ratio [OR] = 2.77/Unit; P or = 1 mm (OR = 2.84; P =.002); and treadmill time (OR = 0.87/min; P =.037). A risk index was generated on the basis of the multivariate Cox regression model as: risk index = 1.02 (Ex wall motion score index) + 1.04 (S-T change) - 0.14 (treadmill time). The validity of this index was tested in the hypothesis-testing population. Event rates at 3 years were lowest (0%) in the lower quartile of risk index (-1.22 to -0.47), highest (29.6%) in the upper quartile (+0.66 to +2.02), and intermediate (19.2% to 15.3%) in the intermediate quartiles. The OR of the risk index for predicting cardiac events was 2.94/Unit ([95% confidence interval: 1.4 to 6.2]; P =.0043). Echocardiographic and Ex parameters are independent powerful predictors of cardiac events after treadmill stress testing. A risk index can be derived with these parameters for a more comprehensive risk stratification with Ex echocardiography.

The Auckland Cataract Study: Assessing Preoperative Risk Stratification Systems for Phacoemulsification Surgery in a Teaching Hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Bia Z; Patel, Dipika V; Sherwin, Trevor; McGhee, Charles N J

2016-11-01

To evaluate 2 preoperative risk stratification systems for assessing the risk of complications in phacoemulsification cataract surgery, performed by residents, fellows, and attending physicians in a public teaching hospital. Cohort study. One observer assessed the clinical data of 500 consecutive cases, prior to phacoemulsification cataract surgery performed between April and June 2015 at Greenlane Clinical Centre, Auckland, New Zealand. Preoperatively 2 risk scores were calculated for each case using the Muhtaseb and Buckinghamshire risk stratification systems. Complications, intraoperative and postoperative, and visual outcomes were analyzed in relation to these risk scores. Intraoperative complication rates increased with higher risk scores using the Muhtaseb or Buckinghamshire stratification system (P = .001 and P = .003, respectively, n = 500). The odds ratios for residents and fellows were not significantly different from attending physicians after case-mix adjustment according to risk scores (P > .05). Postoperative complication rates increased with higher Buckinghamshire risk scores but not with Muhtaseb scores (P = .014 and P = .094, respectively, n = 476). Postoperative corrected-distance visual acuity was poorer with higher risk scores (P < .001 for both, n = 476). This study confirms that the risk of intraoperative complications increases with higher preoperative risk scores. Furthermore, higher risk scores correlate with poorer postoperative visual acuity and the Buckinghamshire risk score also correlates with postoperative complications. Therefore, preoperative assessment using such risk stratification systems could assist individual informed consent, preoperative surgical planning, safe allocation of cases to trainees, and more meaningful analyses of outcomes for individual surgeons and institutions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DGKI methylation status modulates the prognostic value of MGMT in glioblastoma patients treated with combined radio-chemotherapy with temozolomide.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amandine Etcheverry

Full Text Available Consistently reported prognostic factors for glioblastoma (GBM are age, extent of surgery, performance status, IDH1 mutational status, and MGMT promoter methylation status. We aimed to integrate biological and clinical prognostic factors into a nomogram intended to predict the survival time of an individual GBM patient treated with a standard regimen. In a previous study we showed that the methylation status of the DGKI promoter identified patients with MGMT-methylated tumors that responded poorly to the standard regimen. We further evaluated the potential prognostic value of DGKI methylation status.399 patients with newly diagnosed GBM and treated with a standard regimen were retrospectively included in this study. Survival modelling was performed on two patient populations: intention-to-treat population of all included patients (population 1 and MGMT-methylated patients (population 2. Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to identify the main prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed for population 1. The prognostic value of DGKI promoter methylation status was evaluated on population 1 and population 2.The nomogram-based stratification of the cohort identified two risk groups (high/low with significantly different median survival. We validated the prognostic value of DGKI methylation status for MGMT-methylated patients. We also demonstrated that the DGKI methylation status identified 22% of poorly responding patients in the low-risk group defined by the nomogram.Our results improve the conventional MGMT stratification of GBM patients receiving standard treatment. These results could help the interpretation of published or ongoing clinical trial outcomes and refine patient recruitment in the future.

DGKI methylation status modulates the prognostic value of MGMT in glioblastoma patients treated with combined radio-chemotherapy with temozolomide.

Science.gov (United States)

Etcheverry, Amandine; Aubry, Marc; Idbaih, Ahmed; Vauleon, Elodie; Marie, Yannick; Menei, Philippe; Boniface, Rachel; Figarella-Branger, Dominique; Karayan-Tapon, Lucie; Quillien, Veronique; Sanson, Marc; de Tayrac, Marie; Delattre, Jean-Yves; Mosser, Jean

2014-01-01

Consistently reported prognostic factors for glioblastoma (GBM) are age, extent of surgery, performance status, IDH1 mutational status, and MGMT promoter methylation status. We aimed to integrate biological and clinical prognostic factors into a nomogram intended to predict the survival time of an individual GBM patient treated with a standard regimen. In a previous study we showed that the methylation status of the DGKI promoter identified patients with MGMT-methylated tumors that responded poorly to the standard regimen. We further evaluated the potential prognostic value of DGKI methylation status. 399 patients with newly diagnosed GBM and treated with a standard regimen were retrospectively included in this study. Survival modelling was performed on two patient populations: intention-to-treat population of all included patients (population 1) and MGMT-methylated patients (population 2). Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to identify the main prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed for population 1. The prognostic value of DGKI promoter methylation status was evaluated on population 1 and population 2. The nomogram-based stratification of the cohort identified two risk groups (high/low) with significantly different median survival. We validated the prognostic value of DGKI methylation status for MGMT-methylated patients. We also demonstrated that the DGKI methylation status identified 22% of poorly responding patients in the low-risk group defined by the nomogram. Our results improve the conventional MGMT stratification of GBM patients receiving standard treatment. These results could help the interpretation of published or ongoing clinical trial outcomes and refine patient recruitment in the future.

Unification of favourable intermediate-, unfavourable intermediate-, and very high-risk stratification criteria for prostate cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Zumsteg, Zachary S; Zelefsky, Michael J; Woo, Kaitlin M; Spratt, Daniel E; Kollmeier, Marisa A; McBride, Sean; Pei, Xin; Sandler, Howard M; Zhang, Zhigang

2017-11-01

To improve on the existing risk-stratification systems for prostate cancer. This was a retrospective investigation including 2 248 patients undergoing dose-escalated external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) at a single institution. We separated National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) intermediate-risk prostate cancer into 'favourable' and 'unfavourable' groups based on primary Gleason pattern, percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPBC), and number of NCCN intermediate-risk factors. Similarly, NCCN high-risk prostate cancer was stratified into 'standard' and 'very high-risk' groups based on primary Gleason pattern, PPBC, number of NCCN high-risk factors, and stage T3b-T4 disease. Patients with unfavourable-intermediate-risk (UIR) prostate cancer had significantly inferior prostate-specific antigen relapse-free survival (PSA-RFS, P prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM, P prostate cancer. Similarly, patients with very high-risk (VHR) prostate cancer had significantly worse PSA-RFS (P prostate cancer. Moreover, patients with FIR and low-risk prostate cancer had similar outcomes, as did patients with UIR and SHR prostate cancer. Consequently, we propose the following risk-stratification system: Group 1, low risk and FIR; Group 2, UIR and SHR; and Group 3, VHR. These groups have markedly different outcomes, with 8-year distant metastasis rates of 3%, 9%, and 29% (P < 0.001) for Groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively, and 8-year PCSM of 1%, 4%, and 13% (P < 0.001) after EBRT. This modified stratification system was significantly more accurate than the three-tiered NCCN system currently in clinical use for all outcomes. Modifying the NCCN risk-stratification system to group FIR with low-risk patients and UIR with SHR patients, results in modestly improved prediction of outcomes, potentially allowing better personalisation of therapeutic recommendations. © 2017 The Authors BJU International © 2017 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Procalcitonin Improves the Glasgow Prognostic Score for Outcome Prediction in Emergency Patients with Cancer: A Cohort Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Christina Rast

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS is useful for predicting long-term mortality in cancer patients. Our aim was to validate the GPS in ED patients with different cancer-related urgency and investigate whether biomarkers would improve its accuracy. We followed consecutive medical patients presenting with a cancer-related medical urgency to a tertiary care hospital in Switzerland. Upon admission, we measured procalcitonin (PCT, white blood cell count, urea, 25-hydroxyvitamin D, corrected calcium, C-reactive protein, and albumin and calculated the GPS. Of 341 included patients (median age 68 years, 61% males, 81 (23.8% died within 30 days after admission. The GPS showed moderate prognostic accuracy (AUC 0.67 for mortality. Among the different biomarkers, PCT provided the highest prognostic accuracy (odds ratio 1.6 (95% confidence interval 1.3 to 1.9, P<0.001, AUC 0.69 and significantly improved the GPS to a combined AUC of 0.74 (P=0.007. Considering all investigated biomarkers, the AUC increased to 0.76 (P<0.001. The GPS performance was significantly improved by the addition of PCT and other biomarkers for risk stratification in ED cancer patients. The benefit of early risk stratification by the GPS in combination with biomarkers from different pathways should be investigated in further interventional trials.

Risk stratification of thyroid nodules on ultrasonography with the French TI-RADS: Description and reflections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russ, Gilles

2016-01-01

The widespread use of ultrasonography places it in a key position for use in the risk stratification of thyroid nodules. The French proposal is a five-tier system, our version of a thyroid imaging reporting and database system (TI-RADS), which includes a standardized vocabulary and report and a quantified risk assessment. It allows the selection of the nodules that should be referred for fine-needle aspiration biopsies. Effort should be directed towards merging the different risk stratification systems utilized around the world and testing this unified system with multi-center studies

Risk stratification of thyroid nodules on ultrasonography with the French TI-RADS: Description and reflections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Russ, Gilles [Thyroid and Endocrine Tumor Unit, Department of Nuclear Medicine, La Pitie Salpetriere Hospital, Pierre and Marie Curie University, Paris (Korea, Republic of)

2016-01-15

The widespread use of ultrasonography places it in a key position for use in the risk stratification of thyroid nodules. The French proposal is a five-tier system, our version of a thyroid imaging reporting and database system (TI-RADS), which includes a standardized vocabulary and report and a quantified risk assessment. It allows the selection of the nodules that should be referred for fine-needle aspiration biopsies. Effort should be directed towards merging the different risk stratification systems utilized around the world and testing this unified system with multi-center studies.

Occurrence and prognostic significance of cytogenetic evolution in patients with multiple myeloma

Science.gov (United States)

Binder, M; Rajkumar, S V; Ketterling, R P; Dispenzieri, A; Lacy, M Q; Gertz, M A; Buadi, F K; Hayman, S R; Hwa, Y L; Zeldenrust, S R; Lust, J A; Russell, S J; Leung, N; Kapoor, P; Go, R S; Gonsalves, W I; Kyle, R A; Kumar, S K

2016-01-01

Cytogenetic evaluation at the time of diagnosis is essential for risk stratification in multiple myeloma, however little is known about the occurrence and prognostic significance of cytogenetic evolution during follow-up. We studied 989 patients with multiple myeloma, including 304 patients with at least two cytogenetic evaluations. Multivariable-adjusted regression models were used to assess the associations between the parameters of interest and cytogenetic evolution as well as overall survival. The prognostic significance of baseline cytogenetic abnormalities was most pronounced at the time of diagnosis and attenuated over time. In the patients with serial cytogenetic evaluations, the presence of t(11;14) at the time of diagnosis was associated with decreased odds of cytogenetic evolution during follow-up (odds ratio (OR)=0.22, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.09–0.56, P=0.001), while the presence of at least one trisomy or tetrasomy was associated with increased odds (OR=2.96, 95% CI=1.37–6.42, P=0.006). The development of additional abnormalities during the 3 years following diagnosis was associated with increased subsequent mortality (hazard ratio=3.31, 95% CI=1.73–6.30, P<0.001). These findings emphasize the importance of the underlying clonal disease process for risk assessment and suggest that selected patients may benefit from repeated risk stratification. PMID:26967818

205_WS: Improving the Delivery of Primary Care Through Risk Stratification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kinder, Karen; Kristensen, Troels; Abrams, Chad

. Content The workshop will open with an introductory presentation on the numerous applications of risk stratification within the integrated and primary care sectors. The workshop will then focus on individual sessions based on three applications: – Case Management. – Improving Coordination...

Validating a Local Failure Risk Stratification for Use in Prospective Studies of Adjuvant Radiation Therapy for Bladder Cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baumann, Brian C.; He, Jiwei; Hwang, Wei-Ting; Tucker, Kai N.; Bekelman, Justin E.; Herr, Harry W.; Lerner, Seth P.; Guzzo, Thomas J.; Malkowicz, S. Bruce; Christodouleas, John P.

2016-01-01

Purpose: To inform prospective trials of adjuvant radiation therapy (adj-RT) for bladder cancer after radical cystectomy, a locoregional failure (LF) risk stratification was proposed. This stratification was developed and validated using surgical databases that may not reflect the outcomes expected in prospective trials. Our purpose was to assess sources of bias that may affect the stratification model's validity or alter the LF risk estimates for each subgroup: time bias due to evolving surgical techniques; trial accrual bias due to inclusion of patients who would be ineligible for adj-RT trials because of early disease progression, death, or loss to follow-up shortly after cystectomy; bias due to different statistical methods to estimate LF; and subgrouping bias due to different definitions of the LF subgroups. Methods and Materials: The LF risk stratification was developed using a single-institution cohort (n=442, 1990-2008) and the multi-institutional SWOG 8710 cohort (n=264, 1987-1998) treated with radical cystectomy with or without chemotherapy. We evaluated the sensitivity of the stratification to sources of bias using Fine-Gray regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. Results: Year of radical cystectomy was not associated with LF risk on univariate or multivariate analysis after controlling for risk group. By use of more stringent inclusion criteria, 26 SWOG patients (10%) and 60 patients from the single-institution cohort (14%) were excluded. Analysis of the remaining patients confirmed 3 subgroups with significantly different LF risks with 3-year rates of 7%, 17%, and 36%, respectively (P<.01), nearly identical to the rates without correcting for trial accrual bias. Kaplan-Meier techniques estimated higher subgroup LF rates than competing risk analysis. The subgroup definitions used in the NRG-GU001 adj-RT trial were validated. Conclusions: These sources of bias did not invalidate the LF risk stratification or substantially change the model's LF estimates.

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Duenas-Espin, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Carles Contel, Joan; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M. H.; Lluch-Ariet, Magi; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastia; Schonenberg, Helen; Stoerk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies

Prognostic impact of peakVO2-changes in stable CHF on chronic beta-blocker treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Frankenstein, L; Nelles, M; Hallerbach, M; Dukic, D; Fluegel, A; Schellberg, D; Katus, H A; Remppis, A; Zugck, C

2007-11-15

Peak oxygen uptake (pVO2) is used for risk stratification in chronic heart failure (CHF), but little is known about the prognostic impact of pVO2-changes in patients on chronic beta-blocker (BBL) therapy. We therefore prospectively evaluated individual pVO2-changes at a 6-month interval in patients all receiving BBL. 194 patients with stable CHF on stable medication were included (V1) and underwent clinical evaluation and exercise testing. Testing was repeated (V2) at 5.7+/-1.5 months after V1 and patients were followed >12 months after V2. Death or hospitalisation due to cardiac reasons was the predefined EP (EPP, end-point positive; n=62; EPN, end-point negative; n=113). Initial characteristics did not differ between EPP and EPN. Multivariate cox regression analysis revealed that change of pVO2 (EPP: -0.6+/-2.6 ml/kg min; EPN: +2.5+/-3.3 ml/kg min; p<0.001) was independent to pVO2, LVEF, NTproBNP and NYHA at V2 for prediction of the combined end-point during follow-up. An increase of pVO2 by 10% was identified as an adequate cut-off value for risk stratification and ROC-analysis showed the significant incremental prognostic value of the determination of pVO2 changes in combination with pVO2. Serial measurements of pVO2 yield additional information for risk stratification in clinically homogenous CHF patients receiving BBL. This is the first study demonstrating this fact within a narrow predefined interval with all patients on BBL.

Prodromal Parkinsonism and Neurodegenerative Risk Stratification in REM Sleep Behavior Disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Barber, Thomas R; Lawton, Michael; Rolinski, Michal; Evetts, Samuel; Baig, Fahd; Ruffmann, Claudio; Gornall, Aimie; Klein, Johannes C; Lo, Christine; Dennis, Gary; Bandmann, Oliver; Quinnell, Timothy; Zaiwalla, Zenobia; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Hu, Michele T M

2017-08-01

Rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behavior disorder (RBD) is the most specific marker of prodromal alpha-synucleinopathies. We sought to delineate the baseline clinical characteristics of RBD and evaluate risk stratification models. Clinical assessments were performed in 171 RBD, 296 control, and 119 untreated Parkinson's (PD) participants. Putative risk measures were assessed as predictors of prodromal neurodegeneration, and Movement Disorders Society (MDS) criteria for prodromal PD were applied. Participants were screened for common leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2)/glucocerebrosidase gene (GBA) gene mutations. Compared to controls, participants with RBD had higher rates of solvent exposure, head injury, smoking, obesity, and antidepressant use. GBA mutations were more common in RBD, but no LRRK2 mutations were found. RBD participants performed significantly worse than controls on Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS)-III, timed "get-up-and-go", Flamingo test, Sniffin Sticks, and cognitive tests and had worse measures of constipation, quality of life (QOL), and orthostatic hypotension. For all these measures except UPDRS-III, RBD and PD participants were equally impaired. Depression, anxiety, and apathy were worse in RBD compared to PD participants. Stratification of people with RBD according to antidepressant use, obesity, and age altered the odds ratio (OR) of hyposmia compared to controls from 3.4 to 45.5. 74% (95% confidence interval [CI] 66%, 80%) of RBD participants met the MDS criteria for probable prodromal Parkinson's compared to 0.3% (95% CI 0.009%, 2%) of controls. RBD are impaired across a range of clinical measures consistent with prodromal PD and suggestive of a more severe nonmotor subtype. Clinical risk stratification has the potential to select higher risk patients for neuroprotective interventions. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press [on behalf of the Sleep Research Society].

Prognostic value of baseline seric Syndecan-1 in initially unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer patients: a simple biological score.

Science.gov (United States)

Jary, Marine; Lecomte, Thierry; Bouché, Olivier; Kim, Stefano; Dobi, Erion; Queiroz, Lise; Ghiringhelli, Francois; Etienne, Hélène; Léger, Julie; Godet, Yann; Balland, Jérémy; Lakkis, Zaher; Adotevi, Olivier; Bonnetain, Franck; Borg, Christophe; Vernerey, Dewi

2016-11-15

In first-line metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), baseline prognostic factors allowing death risk and treatment strategy stratification are lacking. Syndecan-1 (CD138) soluble form was never described as a prognostic biomarker in mCRC. We investigated its additional prognostic value for overall survival (OS). mCRC patients with unresectable disease at diagnosis were treated with bevacizumab-based chemotherapy in two independent prospective clinical trials (development set: n = 126, validation set: n = 51, study NCT00489697 and study NCT00544011, respectively). Serums were collected at baseline for CD138 measurement. OS determinants were assessed and, based on the final multivariate model, a prognostic score was proposed. Two independent OS prognostic factors were identified: Lactate Dehydrogenase (LDH) high level (p = 0.0066) and log-CD138 high level (p = 0.0190). The determination of CD138 binary information (cutoff: 75 ng/mL) allowed the assessment of a biological prognostic score with CD138 and LDH values, identifying three risk groups for death (median OS= 38.9, 30.1 and 19.8 months for the low, intermediate and high risk groups, respectively; p value for OS, in mCRC patients. A simple biological scoring system is proposed including LDH and CD138 binary status values. © 2016 UICC.

[Sports medical aspects in cardiac risk stratification--heart rate variability and exercise capacity].

Science.gov (United States)

Banzer, W; Lucki, K; Bürklein, M; Rosenhagen, A; Vogt, L

2006-12-01

The present study investigates the association of the predicted CHD-risk (PROCAM) with the individual endurance capacity and heart rate variability (HRV) in a population-based sample of sedentary elderly. After stratification, in 57 men (48.1+/-9.5 yrs.) with an overall PROCAM-risk or =10% (50.8+/-5.6 points) cycle ergometries and short-term HRV analysis of time (RRMEAN, SDNN, RMSSD) and frequency domain parameters (LF, HF, TP, LF/HF) were conducted. Additionally the autonomic stress index (SI) was calculated. Nonparametric tests were used for statistical correlation analysis (Spearman rho) and group comparisons (Mann-Whitney). For endurance capacity [W/kg] (r=-0.469, pHRV analysis in risk stratification and outline the interrelation of a decreased exercise capacity and autonomic function with a raised individual 10-year cardiac risk. As an independent parameter of the vegetative regulatory state the stress index may contribute to an increased practical relevance of short-time HRV analysis.

The Prognostic Role of Circulating Tumor Cells (CTC) in High-risk Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Busetto, Gian Maria; Ferro, Matteo; Del Giudice, Francesco; Antonini, Gabriele; Chung, Benjamin I; Sperduti, Isabella; Giannarelli, Diana; Lucarelli, Giuseppe; Borghesi, Marco; Musi, Gennaro; de Cobelli, Ottavio; De Berardinis, Ettore

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) as a prognostic marker in patients with high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) and assess the efficacy and reliability of 2 different CTC isolation methods. Globally, 155 patients with a pathologically confirmed diagnosis of high-risk NMIBC were included (pT1G3 with or without carcinoma in situ) and underwent transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURB) after a blood withdrawal for CTC evaluation. A total of 101 patients (Group A) had their samples analyzed with the CellSearch automated system, and 54 (Group B) had their samples analyzed with the CELLection Dynabeads manual system. Patients were followed for 28 months, and during this interval, there were a total of 65 (41.9%) recurrences, 27 (17.4%) disease progressions, and 9 (5.8%) lymph node and/or bone metastasis. In our CTC analysis, there were 20 (19.8%) positive patients in Group A and 24 in Group B (44.4%). In our analysis, we found a strong correlation between CTC presence and time to first recurrence; in Group A, we observed an incidence of recurrence in 75% of CTC-positive patients and in Group B of 83% of CTC-positive patients. The time to progression was also strongly correlated with CTCs: 65% and 29%, respectively, of those patients who progressed in those with CTCs in Group A and B. The study demonstrates the potential role of CTCs as a prognostic marker for risk stratification in patients with NMIBC, to predict both recurrence and progression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Syncope: risk stratification and clinical decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Peeters, Suzanne Y G; Hoek, Amber E; Mollink, Susan M; Huff, J Stephen

2014-04-01

Syncope is a common occurrence in the emergency department, accounting for approximately 1% to 3% of presentations. Syncope is best defined as a brief loss of consciousness and postural tone followed by spontaneous and complete recovery. The spectrum of etiologies ranges from benign to life threatening, and a structured approach to evaluating these patients is key to providing care that is thorough, yet cost-effective. This issue reviews the most relevant evidence for managing and risk stratifying the syncope patient, beginning with a focused history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, and tailored diagnostic testing. Several risk stratification decision rules are compared for performance in various scenarios, including how age and associated comorbidities may predict short-term and long-term adverse events. An algorithm for structured, evidence-based care of the syncope patient is included to ensure that patients requiring hospitalization are managed appropriately and those with benign causes are discharged safely.

[Comparison of the present and previously used protocol of risk stratification in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia].

Science.gov (United States)

Glodkowska, Eliza; Bialas, Agnieszka; Jackowska, Teresa

2007-01-01

Acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) is one of the most common cancers in children. In Poland, since November 2002 a new protocol of risk stratification has been recommended for assessment of risk factors and for choosing therapy regimens. assessment of accuracy of protocol ALL-IC 2002 in comparison to previously used risk stratification protocols. ALL was diagnosed in 100 children (44 girls, 56 boys; 1-18 years of age) in the Department of Pediatric Hematology and Oncology, Warsaw Medical University, over the period from November 2002 to November 2006. According to the ALL-IC 2002 protocol the patients were divided into three risk groups: SR-standard, IR-intermediate and HR-high. The stratification was by age, leukocyte count, cytogenetic changes, early response to prednisone therapy and bone marrow remission. In the previously used risk stratification protocols-BFM-90, only hepatosplenomegaly and the number of blasts in peripheral blood (PB) were considered, and the patients were divided into three risk groups: low (LRG1.2). out of the 100 patients qualified for treatment regimens according to the ALL-IC 2002 protocol, 97 entered remission, 11 died and 3 had a relapse. Under the ALL-IC 2002 protocol these children were stratified into the following groups: SR-31%, IR-44% and HR-25%. In the previously used stratification, there would be 26% children in low, 46% in the medium and 28% in the high risk group. According to the BFM-90 protocol 18/31 (58%) and 16/44 (36%) patients from the SR and IR groups respectively would be given more intensive treatment. On the other hand 11/44 (25%) and 14/25 (56%) patients from the IR and HR groups respectively would be given less intensive treatment. 1. ALL-IC 2002 protocol in comparison with the previously used protocol BFM-90, changes the qualification of children with ALL for the SR, IR and HR risk groups. This is linked to basic change of treatment protocol, adequate to severity of disease. 2. Children with ALL qualified

Cardiac Magnetic Resonance-Verified Myocardial Fibrosis in Chagas Disease: Clinical Correlates and Risk Stratification

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Marly Uellendahl

Full Text Available Abstract Background: Chagas disease (CD is an important cause of heart failure and mortality, mainly in Latin America. This study evaluated the morphological and functional characteristics of the heart as well the extent of myocardial fibrosis (MF in patients with CD by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR. The prognostic value of MF evaluated by myocardial-delayed enhancement (MDE was compared with that via Rassi score. Methods: This study assessed 39 patients divided into 2 groups: 28 asymptomatic patients as indeterminate form group (IND; and symptomatic patients as Chagas Heart Disease (CHD group. All patients underwent CMR using the techniques of cine-MRI and MDE, and the amount of MF was compared with the Rassi score. Results: Regarding the morphological and functional analysis, significant differences were observed between both groups (p < 0.001. Furthermore, there was a strong correlation between the extent of MF and the Rassi score (r = 0.76. Conclusions: CMR is an important technique for evaluating patients with CD, stressing morphological and functional differences in all clinical presentations. The strong correlation with the Rassi score and the extent of MF detected by CMR emphasizes its role in the prognostic stratification of patients with CD.

Improving risk-stratification of Diabetes complications using temporal data mining.

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Sacchi, Lucia; Dagliati, Arianna; Segagni, Daniele; Leporati, Paola; Chiovato, Luca; Bellazzi, Riccardo

2015-01-01

To understand which factor trigger worsened disease control is a crucial step in Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) patient management. The MOSAIC project, funded by the European Commission under the FP7 program, has been designed to integrate heterogeneous data sources and provide decision support in chronic T2D management through patients' continuous stratification. In this work we show how temporal data mining can be fruitfully exploited to improve risk stratification. In particular, we exploit administrative data on drug purchases to divide patients in meaningful groups. The detection of drug consumption patterns allows stratifying the population on the basis of subjects' purchasing attitude. Merging these findings with clinical values indicates the relevance of the applied methods while showing significant differences in the identified groups. This extensive approach emphasized the exploitation of administrative data to identify patterns able to explain clinical conditions.

Clinical risk stratification optimizes value of biomarkers to predict new-onset heart failure in a community-based cohort.

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Brouwers, Frank P; van Gilst, Wiek H; Damman, Kevin; van den Berg, Maarten P; Gansevoort, Ron T; Bakker, Stephan J L; Hillege, Hans L; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J; van der Harst, Pim; de Boer, Rudolf A

2014-09-01

We aim to identify and quantify the value of biomarkers for incident new-onset heart failure (HF) in a community-based cohort and subgroups based on cardiovascular risk and evaluate the prognostic value of 13 biomarkers for HF with reduced and preserved ejection fraction. Thirteen biomarkers reflecting diverse pathophysiologic domains were examined in 8569 HF-free participants in Prevention of Vascular and Renal Endstage Disease (mean age, 49 years; 50% men). Subjects were categorized in 2 risk groups based on cardiovascular history. Incremental value per biomarker was assessed using Harrell C-indices. One hundred sixty-eight subjects (2.4%) were diagnosed with new-onset HF in the low-risk group (n=6915; Framingham Risk Score, 5.9%) and 206 (12.2%) subjects in the high-risk group (n=1654; Framingham Risk Score, 18.6%). The association of natriuretic peptides, adrenomedullin, endothelin, and galectin-3 with new-onset HF was stronger in the high-risk group (all Prisk for new-onset HF between both risk groups. The best model for new-onset HF included the combination of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin-T, and urinary albumin excretion, increasing model accuracy to 0.81 (9.5%, Prisk group. Except for a modest effect of cystatin-C, no biomarker was associated with increased risk for HF with preserved ejection fraction. Risk stratification increases the incremental value per biomarker to predict new-onset HF, especially HF with reduced ejection fraction. We suggest that routine biomarker testing should be limited to the use of natriuretic peptides and troponin-T in patients with increased cardiovascular risk. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

The Cambridge Prognostic Groups for improved prediction of disease mortality at diagnosis in primary non-metastatic prostate cancer: a validation study.

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Gnanapragasam, V J; Bratt, O; Muir, K; Lee, L S; Huang, H H; Stattin, P; Lophatananon, A

2018-02-28

The purpose of this study is to validate a new five-tiered prognostic classification system to better discriminate cancer-specific mortality in men diagnosed with primary non-metastatic prostate cancer. We applied a recently described five-strata model, the Cambridge Prognostic Groups (CPGs 1-5), in two international cohorts and tested prognostic performance against the current standard three-strata classification of low-, intermediate- or high-risk disease. Diagnostic clinico-pathological data for men obtained from the Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe) and the Singapore Health Study were used. The main outcome measure was prostate cancer mortality (PCM) stratified by age group and treatment modality. The PCBaSe cohort included 72,337 men, of whom 7162 died of prostate cancer. The CPG model successfully classified men with different risks of PCM with competing risk regression confirming significant intergroup distinction (p study of nearly 75,000 men confirms that the CPG five-tiered prognostic model has superior discrimination compared to the three-tiered model in predicting prostate cancer death across different age and treatment groups. Crucially, it identifies distinct sub-groups of men within the old intermediate-risk and high-risk criteria who have very different prognostic outcomes. We therefore propose adoption of the CPG model as a simple-to-use but more accurate prognostic stratification tool to help guide management for men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer.

Genetic Stratification in Myeloid Diseases: From Risk Assessment to Clinical Decision Support Tool

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Yishai Ofran

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Genetic aberrations have become a dominant factor in the stratification of myeloid malignancies. Cytogenetic and a few mutation studies are the backbone of risk assessment models of myeloid malignancies which are a major consideration in clinical decisions, especially patient assignment for allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Progress in our understanding of the genetic basis of the pathogenesis of myeloid malignancies and the growing capabilities of mass sequencing may add new roles for the clinical usage of genetic data. A few recently identified mutations recognized to be associated with specific diseases or clinical scenarios may soon become part of the diagnostic criteria of such conditions. Mutational studies may also advance our capabilities for a more efficient patient selection process, assigning the most effective therapy at the best timing for each patient. The clinical utility of genetic data is anticipated to advance further with the adoption of deep sequencing and next-generation sequencing techniques. We herein suggest some future potential applications of sequential genetic data to identify pending deteriorations at time points which are the best for aggressive interventions such as allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Genetics is moving from being mostly a prognostic factor to becoming a multitasking decision support tool for hematologists. Physicians must pay attention to advances in molecular hematology as it will soon be accessible and influential for most of our patients.

Prognostic value of the serum free light chain ratio in newly diagnosed myeloma: proposed incorporation into the international staging system.

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Snozek, C L H; Katzmann, J A; Kyle, R A; Dispenzieri, A; Larson, D R; Therneau, T M; Melton, L J; Kumar, S; Greipp, P R; Clark, R J; Rajkumar, S V

2008-10-01

To determine if the serum free light chain (FLC) ratio has prognostic value in patients with symptomatic multiple myeloma (MM), baseline serum samples from a well-characterized cohort of 790 newly diagnosed MM patients were tested with the FLC assay. FLC ratio was calculated as kappa/lambda (reference range 0.26-1.65). On the basis of the distribution of values, a cutpoint kappa/lambda FLC ratio of 32 was chosen for further analysis. Overall survival was significantly inferior in patients with an abnormal FLC ratio of 32 (n=479) compared with those with an FLC ratio between 0.03 and 32 (n=311), with median survival of 30 versus 39 months, respectively. We incorporated abnormal FLC ratio with the International Staging System (ISS) risk factors (that is, albumin or=3.5 g/l), to create a risk stratification model with improved prognostic capabilities. Patients with 0, 1, 2 or 3 adverse risk factors had significantly different overall survival, with median survival times of 51, 39, 30 and 22 months, respectively (P<0.001). These findings suggest that the serum FLC ratio at initial diagnosis is an important predictor of prognosis in myeloma, and can be incorporated into the ISS for improved risk stratification.

The Auckland Cataract Study II: Reducing Complications by Preoperative Risk Stratification and Case Allocation in a Teaching Hospital.

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Kim, Bia Z; Patel, Dipika V; McKelvie, James; Sherwin, Trevor; McGhee, Charles N J

2017-09-01

To assess the effect of preoperative risk stratification for phacoemulsification surgery on intraoperative complications in a teaching hospital. Prospective cohort study. Prospective assessment of consecutive phacoemulsification cases (N = 500) enabled calculation of a risk score (M-score of 0-8) using a risk stratification system. M-scores of >3 were allocated to senior surgeons. All surgeries were performed in a public teaching hospital setting, Auckland, New Zealand, in early 2016. Postoperatively, data were reviewed for complications and corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA). Results were compared to a prospective study (N = 500, phase 1) performed prior to formal introduction of risk stratification. Intraoperative complications increased with increasing M-scores (P = .044). Median M-score for complicated cases was higher (P = .022). Odds ratio (OR) for a complication increased 1.269 per unit increase in M-score (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.007-1.599, P = .043). Overall rate of any intraoperative complication was 5.0%. Intraoperative complication rates decreased from 8.4% to 5.0% (OR = 0.576, P = .043) comparing phase 1 and phase 2 (formal introduction of risk stratification). The severity of complications also reduced. A significant decrease in complications for M = 0 (ie, minimal risk cases) was also identified comparing the current study (3.1%) to phase 1 (7.2%), P = .034. There was no change in postoperative complication risks (OR 0.812, P = .434) or in mean postoperative CDVA (20/30, P = .484) comparing current with phase 1 outcomes. A simple preoperative risk stratification system, based on standard patient information gathered at preoperative consultation, appears to reduce intraoperative complications and support safer surgical training by appropriate allocation of higher-risk cases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Essential thrombocythemia: baseline characteristics and risk factors for survival and thrombosis in a series of 214 patients].

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Angona, Anna; Alvarez-Larrán, Alberto; Bellosillo, Beatriz; Martínez-Avilés, Luz; Garcia-Pallarols, Francesc; Longarón, Raquel; Ancochea, Àgueda; Besses, Carles

2015-03-15

Two prognostic models to predict overall survival and thrombosis-free survival have been proposed: International Prognostic Score for Essential Thrombocythemia (IPSET) and IPSET-Thrombosis, respectively, based on age, leukocytes count, history of previous thrombosis, the presence of cardiovascular risk factors and the JAK2 mutational status. The aim of the present study was to assess the clinical and biological characteristics at diagnosis and during evolution in essential thrombocythemia (ET) patients as well as the factors associated with survival and thrombosis and the usefulness of these new prognostic models. We have evaluated the clinical data and the mutation status of JAK2, MPL and calreticulin of 214 ET patients diagnosed in a single center between 1985 and 2012, classified according to classical risk stratification, IPSET and IPSET-Thrombosis. With a median follow-up of 6.9 years, overall survival was not associated with any variable by multivariate analysis. Thrombotic history and leukocytes>10×10(9)/l were associated with thrombosis-free survival (TFS). In our series, IPSET prognostic systems of survival and thrombosis did not provide more clinically relevant information regarding the classic risk of thrombosis stratification. Thrombotic history and leukocytosis>10×10(9)/l were significantly associated with lower TFS, while the prognostic IPSET-Thrombosis system did not provide more information than classical thrombotic risk assessment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Prognostic value of cardiovascular MRI in diabetics; Prognostischer Wert der kardiovaskulaeren MRT bei Diabetikern

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Schlett, C.L.; Bertheau, R.C.; Kauczor, H.U.; Weckbach, S. [Universitaetsklinikum Heidelberg, Klinik fuer Diagnostische und Interventionelle Radiologie, Heidelberg (Germany)

2015-04-01

Despite an increased cardiovascular risk in patients with diabetes mellitus they are a heterogeneous population with very different individual manifestation of diseases; therefore, a profound stratification is recommended. Clinical examinations and blood biomarkers are typically used in diabetic patients to determine the risk for developing cardio-cerebrovascular events. Cardiac as well as whole-body magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) including cardiovascular sequences are established methods for clinical diagnostics. Their significance in predicting the outcome and the corresponding risk stratification for patients with diabetes is becoming increasingly more important based on recent study results. Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) in cardiac MRI detects silent myocardial ischemia in up to 30 % of diabetic patients, which is associated with a hazard ratio of 3-6 for cardiovascular events. Regional left ventricular wall motion abnormalities and decreased ejection fraction also have a prognostic value in diabetics. Based on whole-body MRI, the vessel score as well as carotid artery stenosis have been evaluated as additional predictors for cardio-cerebrovascular events. The MRI-based predictors have independent and incremental prognostic value beyond traditional risk stratification for cardio-cerebrovascular events; however, only the comprehensive assessment of whole-body MRI including angiography allows the identification of patients who remain free of cardio-cerebrovascular events over a period of 6 years. Cardiac MRI, particularly the detection of LGE, can be recommended for risk stratification of patients with diabetes mellitus. The clinical relevance of the added prognostic value of whole-body MRI needs to be clarified in further studies. (orig.) [German] Trotz eines im Durchschnitt erhoehten kardiovaskulaeren Risikos sind Diabetiker eine heterogene Population mit hoechst unterschiedlichen individuellen Krankheitsverlaeufen, sodass eine fundierte

An operative dengue risk stratification system in Argentina based on geospatial technology

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Ximena Porcasi

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Based on an agreement between the Ministry of Health and the National Space Activities Commission in Argentina, an integrated informatics platform for dengue risk using geospatial technology for the surveillance and prediction of risk areas for dengue fever has been designed. The task was focused on developing stratification based on environmental (historical and current, viral, social and entomological situation for >3,000 cities as part of a system. The platform, developed with open-source software with pattern design, following the European Space Agency standards for space informatics, delivers two products: a national risk map consisting of point vectors for each city/town/locality and an approximate 50 m resolution urban risk map modelling the risk inside selected high-risk cities. The operative system, architecture and tools used in the development are described, including a detailed list of end users’ requirements. Additionally, an algorithm based on bibliography and landscape epidemiology concepts is presented and discussed. The system, in operation since September 2011, is capable of continuously improving the algorithms producing improved risk stratifications without a complete set of inputs. The platform was specifically developed for surveillance of dengue fever as this disease has reemerged in Argentina but the aim is to widen the scope to include also other relevant vector-borne diseases such as chagas, malaria and leishmaniasis as well as other countries belonging to south region of Latin America.

Risk stratification by endocrinologists of patients with type 2 diabetes in a Danish specialised outpatient clinic

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Munch, Lene; Arreskov, Anne B; Sperling, Michael

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: To target optimised medical care the Danish guidelines for diabetes recommend stratification of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) into three levels according to risk and complexity of treatment. The aim was to describe the T2D population in an outpatient clinic, measure the compliance......, the endocrinologists stratified less patients at level 3 compared to objective assessments (p Type 2 diabetes patients, newly referred to or allocated for long-term follow-up in the out...... contained the following criteria: HbA1c, blood pressure, metabolic complications, microvascular and macrovascular complications. Stratification levels encompassed: level 1 (uncomplicated), level 2 (intermediate risk) and level 3 (high risk). Objective assessments were conducted independently by two health...

Does quantifying epicardial and intrathoracic fat with noncontrast computed tomography improve risk stratification beyond calcium scoring alone?

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Forouzandeh, Farshad; Chang, Su Min; Muhyieddeen, Kamil; Zaid, Rashid R; Trevino, Alejandro R; Xu, Jiaqiong; Nabi, Faisal; Mahmarian, John J

2013-01-01

Noncontrast cardiac computed tomography allows calculation of coronary artery calcium score (CACS) and measurement of epicardial adipose tissue (EATv) and intrathoracic fat (ITFv) volumes. It is unclear whether fat volume information contributes to risk stratification. Cardiac computed tomography was performed in 760 consecutive patients with acute chest pain admitted thorough the emergency department. None had prior coronary artery disease. CACS was calculated using the Agatston method. EATv and ITFv were semiautomatically calculated. Median patient follow-up was 3.3 years. Mean patient age was 54.4±13.7 years and Framingham risk score 8.2±8.2. The 45 patients (5.9%) with major acute cardiac events (MACE) were older (64.8±13.9 versus 53.7±13.4 years), more frequently male (60% versus 40%), and had a higher median Framingham risk score (16 versus 4) and CACS (268 versus 0) versus those without events (all PEATv (154 versus 116 mL) and ITFv (330 versus 223 mL), and a higher prevalence of EATv >125 mL (67% versus 44%) and ITFv >250 mL (64% versus 42%) (all PEATv, and ITFv were all independently associated with MACE. CACS was associated with MACE after adjustment for fat volumes (PEATv and ITFv improved the risk model only in patients with CACS >400. CACS and fat volumes are independently associated with MACE in acute chest pain patients and beyond that provided by clinical information alone. Although fat volumes may add prognostic value in patients with CACS >400, CACS is most strongly correlated with outcome.

Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

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Christoph Heesen

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110 and their physicians (n = 6 and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. RESULTS: Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. CONCLUSION: While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic

Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

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Heesen, Christoph; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Nguyen, Franziska; Stellmann, Jan-Patrick; Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Lederer, Christian; Neuhaus, Anneke; Daumer, Martin

2013-01-01

Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS) is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP) tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110) and their physicians (n = 6) and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic estimates and clarify its usefulness for patients and physicians

High ALK mRNA expression has a negative prognostic significance in rhabdomyosarcoma

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Bonvini, P; Zin, A; Alaggio, R; Pawel, B; Bisogno, G; Rosolen, A

2013-01-01

Background: Anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) is a receptor tyrosine kinase aberrantly expressed in cancer, but its clinical and functional importance remain controversial. Mutation or amplification of ALK, as well as its expression levels assessed by conventional immunohistochemistry methods, has been linked to prognosis in cancer, although with potential bias because of the semi-quantitative approaches. Herein, we measured ALK mRNA expression in rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) and determined its clinical impact on patients' stratification and outcome. Methods: Specimens were obtained from RMS patients and cell lines, and ALK expression was analysed by quantitative RT–PCR, western blotting, IHC, and copy number analysis. Results: High ALK mRNA expression was detected in the vast majority of PAX3/7-FOXO1-positive tumours, whereas PAX3/7-FOXO1-negative RMS displayed considerably lower amounts of both mRNA and protein. Notably, ALK mRNA distinguished unfavourable PAX3/7-FOXO1-positive tumours from PAX3/7-FOXO1-negative RMS (Ptumour size (PALK mRNA levels were of prognostic relevance by Cox univariate regression analysis and correlated with increased risk of relapse (P=0.001) and survival (P=0.01), whereas by multivariate analysis elevated ALK mRNA expression resulted a negative prognostic marker when clinical stage was not included. Conclusion: Quantitative assessment of ALK mRNA expression helps to improve risk stratification of RMS patients and identifies tumours with adverse biological characteristics and aggressive behaviour. PMID:24149177

Prognostic value of the Glasgow Prognostic Score for glioblastoma multiforme patients treated with radiotherapy and temozolomide.

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Topkan, Erkan; Selek, Ugur; Ozdemir, Yurday; Yildirim, Berna A; Guler, Ozan C; Ciner, Fuat; Mertsoylu, Huseyin; Tufan, Kadir

2018-04-25

To evaluate the prognostic value of the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), the combination of C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin, in glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) patients treated with radiotherapy (RT) and concurrent plus adjuvant temozolomide (GPS). Data of newly diagnosed GBM patients treated with partial brain RT and concurrent and adjuvant TMZ were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were grouped into three according to the GPS criteria: GPS-0: CRP L and albumin > 35 g/L; GPS-1: CRP L and albumin L or CRP > 10 mg/L and albumin > 35 g/L; and GPS-2: CRP > 10 mg/L and albumin L. Primary end-point was the association between the GPS groups and the overall survival (OS) outcomes. A total of 142 patients were analyzed (median age: 58 years, 66.2% male). There were 64 (45.1%), 40 (28.2%), and 38 (26.7%) patients in GPS-0, GPS-1, and GPS-2 groups, respectively. At median 15.7 months follow-up, the respective median and 5-year OS rates for the whole cohort were 16.2 months (95% CI 12.7-19.7) and 9.5%. In multivariate analyses GPS grouping emerged independently associated with the median OS (P GPS grouping and the RTOG RPA classification were found to be strongly correlated in prognostic stratification of GBM patients (correlation coefficient: 0.42; P GPS appeared to be useful in prognostic stratification of GBM patients into three groups with significantly different survival durations resembling the RTOG RPA classification.

Degree of Agreement between Cardiovascular Risk Stratification Tools.

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Garcia, Guilherme Thomé; Stamm, Ana Maria Nunes de Faria; Rosa, Ariel Córdova; Marasciulo, Antônio Carlos; Marasciulo, Rodrigo Conill; Battistella, Cristian; Remor, Alexandre Augusto de Costa

2017-05-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Brazil, and primary prevention care may be guided by risk stratification tools. The Framingham (FRS) and QRISK-2 (QRS) risk scores estimate 10-year overall cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic individuals, but the instrument of choice may lead to different therapeutic strategies. To evaluate the degree of agreement between FRS and QRS in 10-year overall cardiovascular risk stratification in disease-free individuals. Cross-sectional, observational, descriptive and analytical study in a convenience sample of 74 individuals attending the outpatient care service of a university hospital in Brazil between January 2014 and January 2015. After application of FRS and QRS, patients were classified in low/moderate risk (Brasil, e a prevenção primária pode ser direcionada com ferramentas que estratificam o risco. Os escores de Framingham (ERF) e QRISK-2 (ERQ) estimam o risco cardiovascular (RCV) global em 10 anos em indivíduos assintomáticos, mas a escolha do instrumento pode implicar em terapêuticas distintas. Observar o grau de concordância entre o ERF e o ERQ, na estratificação do risco cardiovascular global em 10 anos, nos indivíduos livres da doença. Estudo transversal, observacional, descritivo e analítico, com uma amostra de conveniência de 74 indivíduos, atendidos em um ambulatório de ensino de um hospital universitário brasileiro, no sul do país, de janeiro de 2014 a janeiro de 2015. O ERF e o ERQ foram aplicados nos pacientes, que foram classificados em baixo/moderado (superior no ERF que no ERQ (33,7% vs 21,6%), sendo identificado efeito sinérgico do gênero masculino com hipertensão arterial sistêmica nas duas ferramentas, e com faixa etária geriátrica no ERQ (p < 0,05) nesse estrato de risco. O índice de concordância Kappa entre os dois escores foi igual a 0,519 (IC95% = 0,386-0,652; p < 0,001). Houve concordância moderada entre o ERF e o ERQ, na estimativa de

Evaluation of clinical, laboratory and morphologic prognostic factors in colon cancer

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Nigro Casimiro

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The long-term prognosis of patients with colon cancer is dependent on many factors. To investigate the influence of a series of clinical, laboratory and morphological variables on prognosis of colon carcinoma we conducted a retrospective analysis of our data. Methods Ninety-two patients with colon cancer, who underwent surgical resection between January 1999 and December 2001, were analyzed. On survival analysis, demographics, clinical, laboratory and pathomorphological parameters were tested for their potential prognostic value. Furthermore, univariate and multivariate analysis of the above mentioned data were performed considering the depth of tumour invasion into the bowel wall as independent variable. Results On survival analysis we found that depth of tumour invasion (P Conclusion The various clinical, laboratory and patho-morphological parameters showed different prognostic value for colon carcinoma. In the future, preoperative prognostic markers will probably gain relevance in order to make a proper choice between surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Nevertheless, current data do not provide sufficient evidence for preoperative stratification of high and low risk patients. Further assessments in prospective large studies are warranted.

A molecular prognostic model predicts esophageal squamous cell carcinoma prognosis.

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Hui-Hui Cao

Full Text Available Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC has the highest mortality rates in China. The 5-year survival rate of ESCC remains dismal despite improvements in treatments such as surgical resection and adjuvant chemoradiation, and current clinical staging approaches are limited in their ability to effectively stratify patients for treatment options. The aim of the present study, therefore, was to develop an immunohistochemistry-based prognostic model to improve clinical risk assessment for patients with ESCC.We developed a molecular prognostic model based on the combined expression of axis of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR, phosphorylated Specificity protein 1 (p-Sp1, and Fascin proteins. The presence of this prognostic model and associated clinical outcomes were analyzed for 130 formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded esophageal curative resection specimens (generation dataset and validated using an independent cohort of 185 specimens (validation dataset.The expression of these three genes at the protein level was used to build a molecular prognostic model that was highly predictive of ESCC survival in both generation and validation datasets (P = 0.001. Regression analysis showed that this molecular prognostic model was strongly and independently predictive of overall survival (hazard ratio = 2.358 [95% CI, 1.391-3.996], P = 0.001 in generation dataset; hazard ratio = 1.990 [95% CI, 1.256-3.154], P = 0.003 in validation dataset. Furthermore, the predictive ability of these 3 biomarkers in combination was more robust than that of each individual biomarker.This technically simple immunohistochemistry-based molecular model accurately predicts ESCC patient survival and thus could serve as a complement to current clinical risk stratification approaches.

Prognostic Importance of Pretransplant Functional Capacity After Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation.

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Jones, Lee W; Devlin, Sean M; Maloy, Molly A; Wood, William A; Tuohy, Sharlynn; Espiritu, Noel; Aquino, Jennifer; Kendig, Tiffany; Michalski, Meghan G; Gyurkocza, Boglarka; Schaffer, Wendy L; Ali, Benzar; Giralt, Sergio; Jakubowski, Ann A

2015-11-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic importance of functional capacity in patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for hematological malignancies. Using a retrospective design, 407 patients completed a 6-minute walk distance (6 MWD) test to assess functional capacity before HCT; 193 (47%) completed a 6 MWD test after hospital discharge. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the risk of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) and overall survival (OS) according to the 6 MWD category (interval, 0.44-0.96) for a 6 MWD ≥ 400 m. A 6 MWD of ≥ 400 m provided incremental information on the prediction of NRM with adjustment for age (p = .032) but not KPS alone (p = .062) or adjustment for other prognostic markers (p = .099). A significant association was found between the 6 MWD and OS (p = .027). A 6 MWD of ≥ 400 m provided incremental information on the prediction of OS with adjustment for age (p = .032) but not for other prognostic markers (p > .05 for all). Patients presenting with a pre-HCT 6 MWD of information beyond that of traditional prognostic markers in HCT. The pretransplant 6-minute walk test is a significant univariate predictor of clinical outcomes in hematological patients beyond age but not beyond that of performance status. On this basis, 6-minute walk distance testing should not be considered part of the standard battery of assessments for risk stratification before hematopoietic cell transplantation. ©AlphaMed Press.

[The scoring system for the risk-stratification in patients with the antiphospholipid syndrome].

Science.gov (United States)

Oku, Kenji

2017-01-01

  Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is a clinical disorder characterized by thrombosis and/or pregnancy morbidity in the persistence of the pathogenic autoantibodies, the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). Recurernt thrombosis is often observed in patients with APS which requires persistent prophylaxis. However, an uniform prophylactic treatment for APS patients is inadequate and stratification of the thrombotic risks is important as aPL are prevalently observed in other various diseases or elderly population. It is previously known that the multiple positivity or high titre of aPL correlate to the thrombotic events. To progress the stratification of the thrombotic risks and to quantitatively analyze them, antiphospholipid score (aPL-S) and the Global Anti-Phospholipid Syndrome Score (GAPSS) were defined as the scoring-systems. Both of these scoring-systems were raised from the large patient cohort data and either aPL profile classified in detail (aPL-S) or simplified aPL profile with classical thrombotic risk factors (GAPSS) were put into scoring system. They have shown a degree of accuracy in identifying high-risk APS patients, especially those at a high risk of thrombosis. However, there are several areas requiring improvement, or at least that clinicians should be aware of, before these instruments are applied in clinical practice. One such issue is standardisation of the aPL tests, including general testing of phosphatidylserine dependent antiprothrombin antibodies (aPS/PT).

Increased evidence for the prognostic value of primary tumor asphericity in pretherapeutic FDG PET for risk stratification in patients with head and neck cancer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hofheinz, Frank; Lougovski, Alexandr [Institute of Radiopharmaceutical Cancer Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, PET Center, Dresden (Germany); Zoephel, Klaus; Hentschel, Maria [University Hospital Carl Gustav Carus, Technische Universitaet Dresden, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Dresden (Germany); Steffen, Ingo G.; Wedel, Florian; Buchert, Ralph; Brenner, Winfried [Charite - Universitaetsmedizin Berlin, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Berlin (Germany); Apostolova, Ivayla [Universitaetsklinikum Magdeburg A.oe.R., Klinik fuer Radiologie und Nuklearmedizin, Magdeburg (Germany); Baumann, Michael [University Hospital Carl Gustav Carus, Technische Universitaet Dresden, Department of Radiation Oncology, Dresden (Germany); OncoRay - National Center for Radiation Research in Oncology, Dresden (Germany); Institute of Radiooncology, Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Dresden (Germany); Kotzerke, Joerg; Hoff, Joerg van den [Institute of Radiopharmaceutical Cancer Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, PET Center, Dresden (Germany); University Hospital Carl Gustav Carus, Technische Universitaet Dresden, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Dresden (Germany)

2014-11-22

In a previous study, we demonstrated the first evidence that the asphericity (ASP) of pretherapeutic FDG uptake in the primary tumor provides independent prognostic information in patients with head and neck cancer. The aim of this work was to confirm these results in an independent patient group examined at a different site. FDG-PET/CT was performed in 37 patients. The primary tumor was delineated by an automatic algorithm based on adaptive thresholding. For the resulting ROIs, the metabolically active part of the tumor (MTV), SUV{sub max}, SUV{sub mean}, total lesion glycolysis (TLG) and ASP were computed. Univariate Cox regression with respect to progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was performed. For survival analysis, patients were divided in groups of high and low risk according to the parameter cut-offs defined in our previous work. In a second step, the cut-offs were adjusted to the present data. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression was performed for the pooled data consisting of the current and the previously described patient group (N = 68). In multivariate Cox regression, clinically relevant parameters were included. Univariate Cox regression using the previously published cut-off values revealed TLG (hazard ratio (HR) = 3) and ASP (HR = 3) as significant predictors for PFS. For OS MTV (HR = 2.7) and ASP (HR = 5.9) were significant predictors. Using the adjusted cutoffs MTV (HR = 2.9/3.3), TLG (HR = 3.1/3.3) and ASP (HR = 3.1/5.9) were prognostic for PFS/OS. In the pooled data, multivariate Cox regression revealed a significant prognostic value with respect to PFS/OS for MTV (HR = 2.3/2.1), SUV{sub max} (HR = 2.1/2.5), TLG (HR = 3.5/3.6), and ASP (HR = 3.4/4.4). Our results confirm the independent prognostic value of ASP of the pretherapeutic FDG uptake in the primary tumor in patients with head and neck cancer. Moreover, these results demonstrate that ASP can be determined unambiguously across different sites. (orig.)

Molecular risk stratification of medulloblastoma patients based on immunohistochemical analysis of MYC, LDHB, and CCNB1 expression

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Haas, Talitha; Hasselt, Nancy; Troost, Dirk; Caron, Huib; Popovic, Mara; Zadravec-Zaletel, Lorna; Grajkowska, Wieslawa; Perek, Marta; Osterheld, Maria-Chiara; Ellison, David; Baas, Frank; Versteeg, Rogier; Kool, Marcel

2008-01-01

PURPOSE: Medulloblastoma is the most common malignant embryonal brain tumor in children. The current clinical risk stratification to select treatment modalities is not optimal because it does not identify the standard-risk patients with resistant disease or the unknown number of high-risk patients

Three-tiered risk stratification model to predict progression in Barrett's esophagus using epigenetic and clinical features.

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Fumiaki Sato

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Barrett's esophagus predisposes to esophageal adenocarcinoma. However, the value of endoscopic surveillance in Barrett's esophagus has been debated because of the low incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma in Barrett's esophagus. Moreover, high inter-observer and sampling-dependent variation in the histologic staging of dysplasia make clinical risk assessment problematic. In this study, we developed a 3-tiered risk stratification strategy, based on systematically selected epigenetic and clinical parameters, to improve Barrett's esophagus surveillance efficiency.We defined high-grade dysplasia as endpoint of progression, and Barrett's esophagus progressor patients as Barrett's esophagus patients with either no dysplasia or low-grade dysplasia who later developed high-grade dysplasia or esophageal adenocarcinoma. We analyzed 4 epigenetic and 3 clinical parameters in 118 Barrett's esophagus tissues obtained from 35 progressor and 27 non-progressor Barrett's esophagus patients from Baltimore Veterans Affairs Maryland Health Care Systems and Mayo Clinic. Based on 2-year and 4-year prediction models using linear discriminant analysis (area under the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC curve: 0.8386 and 0.7910, respectively, Barrett's esophagus specimens were stratified into high-risk (HR, intermediate-risk (IR, or low-risk (LR groups. This 3-tiered stratification method retained both the high specificity of the 2-year model and the high sensitivity of the 4-year model. Progression-free survivals differed significantly among the 3 risk groups, with p = 0.0022 (HR vs. IR and p<0.0001 (HR or IR vs. LR. Incremental value analyses demonstrated that the number of methylated genes contributed most influentially to prediction accuracy.This 3-tiered risk stratification strategy has the potential to exert a profound impact on Barrett's esophagus surveillance accuracy and efficiency.

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

Analysis of agreement between cardiac risk stratification protocols applied to participants of a center for cardiac rehabilitation

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Ana A. S. Santos

2016-01-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Background Cardiac risk stratification is related to the risk of the occurrence of events induced by exercise. Despite the existence of several protocols to calculate risk stratification, studies indicating that there is similarity between these protocols are still unknown. Objective To evaluate the agreement between the existing protocols on cardiac risk rating in cardiac patients. Method The records of 50 patients from a cardiac rehabilitation program were analyzed, from which the following information was extracted: age, sex, weight, height, clinical diagnosis, medical history, risk factors, associated diseases, and the results from the most recent laboratory and complementary tests performed. This information was used for risk stratification of the patients in the protocols of the American College of Sports Medicine, the Brazilian Society of Cardiology, the American Heart Association, the protocol designed by Frederic J. Pashkow, the American Association of Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Rehabilitation, the Société Française de Cardiologie, and the Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the sample and the analysis of agreement between the protocols was calculated using the Kappa coefficient. Differences were considered with a significance level of 5%. Results Of the 21 analyses of agreement, 12 were considered significant between the protocols used for risk classification, with nine classified as moderate and three as low. No agreements were classified as excellent. Different proportions were observed in each risk category, with significant differences between the protocols for all risk categories. Conclusion The agreements between the protocols were considered low and moderate and the risk proportions differed between protocols.

Biomarkers for Risk Stratification of Neoplastic Progression in Barrett Esophagus

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Marjon Kerkhof

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Barrett esophagus (BE is caused by chronic gastroesophageal reflux and predisposes to the development of esophageal adenocarcinoma through different grades of dysplasia. Only a subset of BE patients will finally develop esophageal adenocarcinoma. The majority will therefore not benefit from an endoscopic surveillance program, based on the histological identification of dysplasia. Several studies have been performed to find additional biomarkers that can be used to detect the subgroup of patients with an increased risk of developing malignancy in BE. In this review, we will summarize the most promising tissue biomarkers, i.e. proliferation/cell cycle proteins, tumor suppressor genes, adhesion molecules, DNA ploidy status and inflammation associated markers, that can be used for risk stratification in BE, and discuss their respective clinical application.

A risk stratification model for antihypertensive medication non-adherence among Chinese immigrants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen-Wen Li

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to establish a risk stratification model for identifying Chinese immigrants at risk for non-adherence to antihypertensive medications. Questionnaires were self-administered to 200 Chinese immigrants in San Francisco, USA. Questionnaires included demographics, culture factors (e.g., Perceived Susceptibility in General, Perceived Benefits of Western Medication, Perceived Benefits of Chinese Herbs, and Health-Related Social Support, and medications adherence. Participants' mean age was 70.6 (±10.3 years. Three stratification factors were identified for non-adherence: Lower Perceived Susceptibility in General, lower Perceived Benefit of Western Medications, and longer Length of Stay in the United States. The probability of non-adherence was 77%, 62%, and 57% for lower perceived susceptibility, longer stay in the United States, and lower perceived benefits of Western medications, respectively. A combination of lower perceived susceptibility and lower perceived benefits of medication predicted 81% non-adherence and lower perceived susceptibility with longer stay in the United States predicted at 84%. All three factors combined predicted nearly 90%. Patients with all three factors had the highest risk for non-adherence. The second priority groups are patients with lower perceived susceptibility and those with lower perceived susceptibility combined with any of the other two factors. In the clinical setting, these three groups are a high priority for education on the importance of medication adherence.

Urinary proteomic biomarkers for diagnosis and risk stratification of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: a multicentric study.

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Andreas D Kistler

Full Text Available Treatment options for autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD will likely become available in the near future, hence reliable diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers for the disease are strongly needed. Here, we aimed to define urinary proteomic patterns in ADPKD patients, which aid diagnosis and risk stratification. By capillary electrophoresis online coupled to mass spectrometry (CE-MS, we compared the urinary peptidome of 41 ADPKD patients to 189 healthy controls and identified 657 peptides with significantly altered excretion, of which 209 could be sequenced using tandem mass spectrometry. A support-vector-machine based diagnostic biomarker model based on the 142 most consistent peptide markers achieved a diagnostic sensitivity of 84.5% and specificity of 94.2% in an independent validation cohort, consisting of 251 ADPKD patients from five different centers and 86 healthy controls. The proteomic alterations in ADPKD included, but were not limited to markers previously associated with acute kidney injury (AKI. The diagnostic biomarker model was highly specific for ADPKD when tested in a cohort consisting of 481 patients with a variety of renal and extrarenal diseases, including AKI. Similar to ultrasound, sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic score depended on patient age and genotype. We were furthermore able to identify biomarkers for disease severity and progression. A proteomic severity score was developed to predict height adjusted total kidney volume (htTKV based on proteomic analysis of 134 ADPKD patients and showed a correlation of r = 0.415 (p<0.0001 with htTKV in an independent validation cohort consisting of 158 ADPKD patients. In conclusion, the performance of peptidomic biomarker scores is superior to any other biochemical markers of ADPKD and the proteomic biomarker patterns are a promising tool for prognostic evaluation of ADPKD.

Comparison of Duke ergo-metric score and of the classification based on scintigraphic data in the stratification of coronaries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouhayoun, E.; Coca, F.J.; Payoux, P.; Tafani, J.A.M.; Esquerre, J.P.

1997-01-01

Stratification of risk (sudden death and infarction) remains a major problem of the way the coronaries are cared. Since 1987, a score based on the test-to-effort data was proposed by Mark and coll. of 'Duke University' team. They tried to demonstrate that this score provides a reliable classification of patients. We have compared the results obtained by using this score with those issued from the simultaneous analysis of the left ventricle (LV) function and LV perfusion. A hundred patients afflicted with coronaries (stenoses > 50%) benefited by a coupled study of the LV function and perfusion at rest and under effort made by means of MIBI scintigraphy. The effort test allowed calculating the 'Duke' score by means of a formula in terms of the angor index defined as follows: 0 for absence, 1 for angor and 2 for angor motivating cessation. According to Duke score three classes can be defined: patients of low risk, score ≥ 5; patients of intermediate risk, score in between 5 and -10; patients of high risk, score ≤ -10. Ejection fraction at effort acme was measured in every patient as well as the extension of perfusion defect, evaluated semi-quantitatively at effort and rest on the basis of bull's eye. Three groups of patients were created according to the results of perfusion+function couple): (A)- normal perfusion and function, the case of good prognostication; (B)- patients slightly afflicted (FEV effort > 50% and in-effort defect extension effort 50%). The last criteria were proved by several studies as bad prognostication. A table presents the risks according the Duke score for the three classes. One can observe that one third of the patients severely afflicted by confirmed ischemia are classified in the low-risk class. Besides, the majority of patients are ranked with intermediary risk, independently of scintigraphic results. In conclusion, these results concerning the stratification of coronaries show the superiority of the criteria based on scintigraphy over

A three-gene expression signature model for risk stratification of patients with neuroblastoma.

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Garcia, Idoia; Mayol, Gemma; Ríos, José; Domenech, Gema; Cheung, Nai-Kong V; Oberthuer, André; Fischer, Matthias; Maris, John M; Brodeur, Garrett M; Hero, Barbara; Rodríguez, Eva; Suñol, Mariona; Galvan, Patricia; de Torres, Carmen; Mora, Jaume; Lavarino, Cinzia

2012-04-01

Neuroblastoma is an embryonal tumor with contrasting clinical courses. Despite elaborate stratification strategies, precise clinical risk assessment still remains a challenge. The purpose of this study was to develop a PCR-based predictor model to improve clinical risk assessment of patients with neuroblastoma. The model was developed using real-time PCR gene expression data from 96 samples and tested on separate expression data sets obtained from real-time PCR and microarray studies comprising 362 patients. On the basis of our prior study of differentially expressed genes in favorable and unfavorable neuroblastoma subgroups, we identified three genes, CHD5, PAFAH1B1, and NME1, strongly associated with patient outcome. The expression pattern of these genes was used to develop a PCR-based single-score predictor model. The model discriminated patients into two groups with significantly different clinical outcome [set 1: 5-year overall survival (OS): 0.93 ± 0.03 vs. 0.53 ± 0.06, 5-year event-free survival (EFS): 0.85 ± 0.04 vs. 0.042 ± 0.06, both P model was an independent marker for survival (P model robustly classified patients in the total cohort and in different clinically relevant risk subgroups. We propose for the first time in neuroblastoma, a technically simple PCR-based predictor model that could help refine current risk stratification systems. ©2012 AACR.

Fatigue as prognostic risk marker of mental sickness absence in white collar employees.

Science.gov (United States)

Roelen, C A M; Heymans, M W; van Rhenen, W; Groothoff, J W; Twisk, J W R; Bültmann, U

2014-06-01

To investigate fatigue as prognostic risk marker for identifying working employees at risk of long-term sickness absence (SA). At baseline, fatigue was measured in 633 white collar employees with the checklist individual strength (CIS) including scales for fatigue severity, reduced concentration, reduced motivation, and reduced physical activity. SA was medically certified by an occupational physician in the 3rd or 4th SA week with diagnostic codes according to the 10th version of the International Classification of Diseases. Medically certified SA was retrieved at the individual level from an occupational health register after 1-year follow-up. CIS scores were investigated as prognostic risk markers predicting medically certified SA and particularly SA certified as mental SA. 614 employees (N = 378 men and N = 236 women) had complete data and were eligible for analysis; 63 (10 %) had medically certified SA of whom 39 (6 %) had mental SA. Fatigue severity and total CIS scores were associated with medically certified SA in men, but poorly discriminated between men with and without medically certified SA. Fatigue severity, reduced concentration, reduced motivation, and total CIS scores were also associated with mental SA in men. CIS and its reduced concentration scale were valid prognostic risk markers of mental SA. CONCLUSION Fatigue was a prognostic risk marker of mental SA in white collar men. The CIS should be further validated as a screening tool for the risk of mental SA in white collar working populations.

Multiinstitutional Analysis of Thyroid Nodule Risk Stratification Using the American College of Radiology Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System.

Science.gov (United States)

Middleton, William D; Teefey, Sharlene A; Reading, Carl C; Langer, Jill E; Beland, Michael D; Szabunio, Margaret M; Desser, Terry S

2017-06-01

Guidelines for managing thyroid nodules are highly dependent on risk stratification based on sonographic findings. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the risk stratification system used by the American College of Radiology Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (TIRADS). Patients with thyroid nodules who underwent sonography and fine-needle aspiration were enrolled in a multiinstitutional study. The sonographic nodule features evaluated in the study were composition, echogenicity, margins, and echogenic foci. Images were reviewed by two radiologists who were blinded to the results of cytologic analysis. Nodules were assigned points for each feature, and the points were totaled to determine the final TIRADS level (TR1-TR5). The risk of cancer associated with each point total and final TIRADS level was determined. A total of 3422 nodules, 352 of which were malignant, were studied. The risk of malignancy was closely associated with the composition, echogenicity, margins, and echogenic foci of the nodules (p 474 nodules that were more than 1% outside these thresholds, 88.0% (417/474) had a risk level that was below the TIRADS threshold. The aggregate risk of malignancy for nodules associated with each individual TIRADS point level (0-10) and each final TIRADS level (TR1-TR5) falls within the TIRADS risk stratification thresholds. A total of 85% of all nodules were within 1% of the specified TIRADS risk thresholds.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Plaque Hemorrhage for Risk Stratification in Carotid Artery Disease With Moderate Risk Under Current Medical Therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Hosseini, Akram A; Simpson, Richard J; Altaf, Nishath; Bath, Philip M; MacSweeney, Shane T; Auer, Dorothee P

2017-03-01

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-defined carotid plaque hemorrhage (MRIPH) can predict recurrent cerebrovascular ischemic events in severe symptomatic carotid stenosis. It is less clear whether MRIPH can improve risk stratification despite optimized medical secondary prevention in those with moderate risk. One-hundred fifty-one symptomatic patients with 30% to 99% carotid artery stenosis (median age: 77, 60.5% men) clinically deemed to not benefit from endarterectomy were prospectively recruited to undergo MRI and clinical follow-up (mean, 22 months). The clinical carotid artery risk score could be evaluated in 88 patients. MRIPH+ve was defined as plaque intensity >150% that of adjacent muscle. Survival analyses were performed with recurrent infarction (stroke or diffusion-positive cerebral ischemia) as the main end point. Fifty-five participants showed MRIPH+ve; 47 had low, 36 intermediate, and 5 high carotid artery risk scores. Cox regression showed MRIPH as a strong predictor of future infarction (hazard ratio, 5.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.64-16.34; P =0.005, corrected for degree of stenosis), also in the subgroup with 50% to 69% stenosis (hazard ratio, 4.1; 95% confidence interval, 1-16.8; P =0.049). The absolute risk of future infarction was 31.7% at 3 years in MRIPH+ve versus 1.8% in patients without ( P medication with clinically uncertain benefit from recanalization, that is, those with moderate degree stenosis and intermediate carotid artery risk scores, MRIPH offers additional risk stratification. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Heart rate variability enhances the prognostic value of established parameters in patients with congestive heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Krüger, C; Lahm, T; Zugck, C; Kell, R; Schellberg, D; Schweizer, M W F; Kübler, W; Haass, M

2002-12-01

This prospective study evaluated whether heart rate variability (HRV) assessed from Holter ECG has prognostic value in addition to established parameters in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). The study included 222 patients with CHF due to dilated or ischemic cardiomyopathy (left ventricular ejection fraction LVEF 21+/-1%; mean+/-SEM). During a mean follow-up of 15+/-1 months, 38 (17%) patients died and 45 (20%) were hospitalized due to worsening of CHF. The HRV parameter SDNN (standard deviation of all intervals between normal beats) was significantly lower in non-surviving or hospitalized than in event-free patients (118+/-6 vs 142+/-5 ms), as were LVEF (18+/-1 vs 23+/-1%), and peak oxygen uptake during exercise (peak VO(2)) (12.8+/-0.5 vs 15.6+/-0.5 ml/min/kg). While each of these parameters was a risk predictor in univariate analysis, multivariate analysis revealed that HRV provides both independent and additional prognostic information with respect to the risk 'cardiac mortality or deterioration of CHF'. It is concluded that the determination of HRV enhances the prognostic power given by the most widely used parameters LVEF and peak VO(2) in the prediction of mortality or deterioration of CHF and thus enables to improve risk stratification.

Perceptions of Risk Stratification Workflows in Primary Care

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Rachel L. Ross

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Risk stratification (RS in primary care is frequently used by policy-makers, payers, and health systems; the process requires risk assessment for adverse health outcomes across a population to assign patients into risk tiers and allow care management (CM resources to be targeted effectively. Our objective was to understand the approach to and perception of RS in primary care practices. An online survey was developed, tested, and administered to 148 representatives of 37 primary care practices engaged in RS varying in size, location and ownership. The survey assessed practices’ approach to, perception of, and confidence in RS, and its effect on subsequent CM activities. We examined psychometric properties of the survey to determine validity and conducted chi-square analyses to determine the association between practice characteristics and confidence and agreement with risk scores. The survey yielded a 68% response rate (100 respondents. Overall, participants felt moderately confident in their risk scores (range 41–53.8%, and moderately to highly confident in their subsequent CM workflows (range 46–68%. Respondents from small and independent practices were more likely to have higher confidence and agreement with their RS approaches and scores (p < 0.01. Confidence levels were highest, however, when practices incorporated human review into their RS processes (p < 0.05. This trend was not affected by respondents’ professional roles. Additional work from a broad mixed-methods effort will add to our understanding of RS implementation processes and outcomes.

Additional prognostic value of physical examination, exercise testing, and arterial ultrasonography for coronary risk assessment in primary prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Cournot, Maxime; Taraszkiewicz, Dorota; Cambou, Jean-Pierre; Galinier, Michel; Boccalon, Henri; Hanaire-Broutin, Hélène; Chamontin, Bernard; Carrié, Didier; Ferrières, Jean

2009-11-01

The choice of noninvasive tests used in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases must be based on medical evidence. The aim of this study was to assess the additional prognostic value, over conventional risk factors, of physical examination, exercise testing, and arterial ultrasonography, in predicting a first coronary event. A prospective cohort study was conducted between 1996 and 2004 (n = 2,709), with follow-up in 2006 (response rate 96.6%). Participants had no history or symptoms of cardiovascular disease and had a standardized physical examination, a cardiac exercise testing, and carotid and femoral ultrasonography at baseline. Incident cases of definite coronary events were recorded during follow-up. Over the Framingham risk score, femoral bruit, positive exercise test, intima-media thickness >0.63 mm, and a femoral plaque provided significant additional information to the prediction model. The addition of the exercise test to the traditional risk factors, then the intima-media thickness and lastly the presence of femoral plaques, produces incremental increases in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.73-0.78, P = .02) and about a 50% increase in the positive predictive value (15.8%-31.4%), with no effect on the negative predictive value (96.4%-96.9%). Physical examination, exercise testing, and arterial ultrasonography provide incremental information on the risk of coronary event in asymptomatic adults. Exercise testing and femoral ultrasonography also improve the accuracy of the risk stratification.

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-04-15

Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require

[Risk stratification of patients with diabetes mellitus undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting--a comparison of statistical methods].

Science.gov (United States)

Arnrich, B; Albert, A; Walter, J

2006-01-01

Among the coronary bypass patients from our Datamart database, we found a prevalence of 29.6% of diagnosed diabetics. 5.2% of the patients without a diagnosis of diabetes mellitus and a fasting plasma glucose level > 125 mg/dl were defined as undiagnosed diabetics. The objective of this paper was to compare univariate methods and techniques for risk stratification to determine, whether undiagnosed diabetes is per se a risk factor for increased ventilation time and length of ICU stay, and for increased prevalence of resuscitation, reintubation and 30-d mortality for diabetics in heart surgery. Univariate comparisons reveals that undiagnosed diabetics needed resuscitation significantly more often and had an increased ventilation time, while the length of ICU stay was significantly reduced. The significantly different distribution between the diabetics groups of 11 from 32 attributes examined, demands the use of methods for risk stratification. Both risk adjusted methods regression and matching confirm that undiagnosed diabetics had an increased ventilation time and an increased prevalence of resuscitation, while the length of ICU stay was not significantly reduced. A homogeneous distribution of the patient characteristics in the two diabetics groups could be achieved through a statistical matching method using the propensity score. In contrast to the regression analysis, a significantly increased prevalence of reintubation in undiagnosed diabetics was found. Based on an example of undiagnosed diabetics in heart surgery, the presented study reveals the necessity and the possibilities of techniques for risk stratification in retrospective analysis and shows how the potential of data collection from daily clinical practice can be used in an effective way.

Risk stratification for progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy in patients treated with natalizumab

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Per Soelberg; Bertolotto, Antonio; Edan, Gilles

2012-01-01

using or considering natalizumab therapy. Recommendations for clinical management of patients with MS and use of natalizumab are provided based on the presence of these three risk factors. The identification of risk factors that increase the likelihood of PML in natalizumab-treated patients can......Natalizumab is a highly effective immunomodulator in the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS). Treatment with natalizumab has been associated with progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), an infection of the central nervous system (CNS) caused by a pathogenic form of the normally benign JC......-treated patients. With the development of a reliable and validated assay for detection of antibodies in patients with MS directed against JCV, it is now possible to identify persons who are carriers of JCV. The availability of this assay provides an additional option for risk stratification of PML in patients...

Early Risk stratification for Arrhythmic death in Patients with ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

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Mohammad Ali Sadr-Ameli

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Sudden cardiac death is a leading cause of death in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (MI. According to high cost of modern therapeutic modalities it is of paramount importance to define protocols for risk stratification of post-MI patients before considering expensive devices such as implantable cardioverter-defibrillator.Methods: One hundred and thirty seven patients with acute ST-elevation MI were selected and underwent echocardiographic study, holter monitoring and signal-averaged electrocardiography (SAECG. Then, the patients were followed for 12 ±3 months.Results: During follow-up, 13 deaths (9.5% occurred; nine cases happened as sudden cardiac death (6.6%. The effect of ejection fraction (EF less than 40% on occurrence of arrhythmic events was significant (P<0.001. Sensitivity and positive predictive value of EF<40% was 100% and 76.95% respectively. Although with lesser sensitivity and predictive power than EF<40%, abnormal heart rate variability (HRV and SAECG had also significant effects on occurrence of sudden death (P=0.02 and P=0.003 respectively. Nonsustained ventricular tachycardia was not significantly related to risk of sudden death in this study (P=0.20.Conclusions: This study indicated that EF less than 40% is the most powerful predictor of sudden cardiac death in post MI patients. Abnormal HRV and SAECG are also important predictors and can be added to EF for better risk stratification.

Stratification of the Risk of Sudden Death in Nonischemic Heart Failure

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Maurício Pimentel

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Despite significant therapeutic advancements, heart failure remains a highly prevalent clinical condition associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In 30%-40% patients, the etiology of heart failure is nonischemic. The implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD is capable of preventing sudden death and decreasing total mortality in patients with nonischemic heart failure. However, a significant number of patients receiving ICD do not receive any kind of therapy during follow-up. Moreover, considering the situation in Brazil and several other countries, ICD cannot be implanted in all patients with nonischemic heart failure. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify patients at an increased risk of sudden death because these would benefit more than patients at a lower risk, despite the presence of heart failure in both risk groups. In this study, the authors review the primary available methods for the stratification of the risk of sudden death in patients with nonischemic heart failure.

A prognostic tool to identify adolescents at high risk of becoming daily smokers

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Paradis Gilles

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The American Academy of Pediatrics advocates that pediatricians should be involved in tobacco counseling and has developed guidelines for counseling. We present a prognostic tool for use by health care practitioners in both clinical and non-clinical settings, to identify adolescents at risk of becoming daily smokers. Methods Data were drawn from the Nicotine Dependence in Teens (NDIT Study, a prospective investigation of 1293 adolescents, initially aged 12-13 years, recruited in 10 secondary schools in Montreal, Canada in 1999. Questionnaires were administered every three months for five years. The prognostic tool was developed using estimated coefficients from multivariable logistic models. Model overfitting was corrected using bootstrap cross-validation. Goodness-of-fit and predictive ability of the models were assessed by R2, the c-statistic, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results The 1-year and 2-year probability of initiating daily smoking was a joint function of seven individual characteristics: age; ever smoked; ever felt like you needed a cigarette; parent(s smoke; sibling(s smoke; friend(s smoke; and ever drank alcohol. The models were characterized by reasonably good fit and predictive ability. They were transformed into user-friendly tables such that the risk of daily smoking can be easily computed by summing points for responses to each item. The prognostic tool is also available on-line at http://episerve.chumontreal.qc.ca/calculation_risk/daily-risk/daily_smokingadd.php. Conclusions The prognostic tool to identify youth at high risk of daily smoking may eventually be an important component of a comprehensive tobacco control system.

A novel approach to population-based risk stratification, comprising individualized lifestyle intervention in Danish general practice to prevent chronic diseases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bruun Larsen, Lars; Søndergaard, Jens; Halling, Anders

2017-01-01

Early detection of patients at risk seems to be effective for reducing the prevalence of lifestyle-related chronic diseases. We aim to test the feasibility of a novel intervention for early detection of lifestyle-related chronic diseases based on a population-based stratification using a combinat......Early detection of patients at risk seems to be effective for reducing the prevalence of lifestyle-related chronic diseases. We aim to test the feasibility of a novel intervention for early detection of lifestyle-related chronic diseases based on a population-based stratification using...

An Interoperable System toward Cardiac Risk Stratification from ECG Monitoring

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Cristina Soguero-Ruiz

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Many indices have been proposed for cardiovascular risk stratification from electrocardiogram signal processing, still with limited use in clinical practice. We created a system integrating the clinical definition of cardiac risk subdomains from ECGs and the use of diverse signal processing techniques. Three subdomains were defined from the joint analysis of the technical and clinical viewpoints. One subdomain was devoted to demographic and clinical data. The other two subdomains were intended to obtain widely defined risk indices from ECG monitoring: a simple-domain (heart rate turbulence (HRT, and a complex-domain (heart rate variability (HRV. Data provided by the three subdomains allowed for the generation of alerts with different intensity and nature, as well as for the grouping and scrutinization of patients according to the established processing and risk-thresholding criteria. The implemented system was tested by connecting data from real-world in-hospital electronic health records and ECG monitoring by considering standards for syntactic (HL7 messages and semantic interoperability (archetypes based on CEN/ISO EN13606 and SNOMED-CT. The system was able to provide risk indices and to generate alerts in the health records to support decision-making. Overall, the system allows for the agile interaction of research and clinical practice in the Holter-ECG-based cardiac risk domain.

An Interoperable System toward Cardiac Risk Stratification from ECG Monitoring

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Mora-Jiménez, Inmaculada; Ramos-López, Javier; Quintanilla Fernández, Teresa; García-García, Antonio; Díez-Mazuela, Daniel; García-Alberola, Arcadi

2018-01-01

Many indices have been proposed for cardiovascular risk stratification from electrocardiogram signal processing, still with limited use in clinical practice. We created a system integrating the clinical definition of cardiac risk subdomains from ECGs and the use of diverse signal processing techniques. Three subdomains were defined from the joint analysis of the technical and clinical viewpoints. One subdomain was devoted to demographic and clinical data. The other two subdomains were intended to obtain widely defined risk indices from ECG monitoring: a simple-domain (heart rate turbulence (HRT)), and a complex-domain (heart rate variability (HRV)). Data provided by the three subdomains allowed for the generation of alerts with different intensity and nature, as well as for the grouping and scrutinization of patients according to the established processing and risk-thresholding criteria. The implemented system was tested by connecting data from real-world in-hospital electronic health records and ECG monitoring by considering standards for syntactic (HL7 messages) and semantic interoperability (archetypes based on CEN/ISO EN13606 and SNOMED-CT). The system was able to provide risk indices and to generate alerts in the health records to support decision-making. Overall, the system allows for the agile interaction of research and clinical practice in the Holter-ECG-based cardiac risk domain. PMID:29494497

A Practical Risk Stratification Approach for Implementing a Primary Care Chronic Disease Management Program in an Underserved Community.

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Xu, Junjun; Williams-Livingston, Arletha; Gaglioti, Anne; McAllister, Calvin; Rust, George

2018-01-01

The use of value metrics is often dependent on payer-initiated health care management incentives. There is a need for practices to define and manage their own patient panels regardless of payer to participate effectively in population health management. A key step is to define a panel of primary care patients with high comorbidity profiles. Our sample included all patients seen in an urban academic family medicine clinic over a two-year period. The simplified risk stratification was built using internal electronic health record and billing system data based on ICD-9 codes. There were 347 patients classified as high-risk out of the 5,364 patient panel. Average age was 59 years (SD 15). Hypertension (90%), hyperlipidemia (62%), and depression (55%) were the most common conditions among high-risk patients. Simplified risk stratification provides a feasible option for our team to understand and respond to the nuances of population health in our underserved community.

Advanced colorectal neoplasia risk stratification by penalized logistic regression.

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Lin, Yunzhi; Yu, Menggang; Wang, Sijian; Chappell, Richard; Imperiale, Thomas F

2016-08-01

Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of death from cancer in the United States. To facilitate the efficiency of colorectal cancer screening, there is a need to stratify risk for colorectal cancer among the 90% of US residents who are considered "average risk." In this article, we investigate such risk stratification rules for advanced colorectal neoplasia (colorectal cancer and advanced, precancerous polyps). We use a recently completed large cohort study of subjects who underwent a first screening colonoscopy. Logistic regression models have been used in the literature to estimate the risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia based on quantifiable risk factors. However, logistic regression may be prone to overfitting and instability in variable selection. Since most of the risk factors in our study have several categories, it was tempting to collapse these categories into fewer risk groups. We propose a penalized logistic regression method that automatically and simultaneously selects variables, groups categories, and estimates their coefficients by penalizing the [Formula: see text]-norm of both the coefficients and their differences. Hence, it encourages sparsity in the categories, i.e. grouping of the categories, and sparsity in the variables, i.e. variable selection. We apply the penalized logistic regression method to our data. The important variables are selected, with close categories simultaneously grouped, by penalized regression models with and without the interactions terms. The models are validated with 10-fold cross-validation. The receiver operating characteristic curves of the penalized regression models dominate the receiver operating characteristic curve of naive logistic regressions, indicating a superior discriminative performance. © The Author(s) 2013.

Diabetes mellitus and bone health: epidemiology, etiology and implications for fracture risk stratification.

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Valderrábano, Rodrigo J; Linares, Maria I

2018-01-01

Skeletal fractures can result when there are co-morbid conditions that negatively impact bone strength. Fractures represent an important source of morbidity and mortality, especially in older populations. Diabetes mellitus is a metabolic disorder that has reached worldwide epidemic proportions and is increasingly being recognized as a risk factor for fracture. Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes have different effects on bone mineral density but share common pathways, which lead to bone fragility. In this review, we discuss the available data on diabetes and fractures, bone density and the clinical implications for fracture risk stratification in current practice.

DNA methylation is an independent prognostic marker of survival in adrenocortical cancer

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jouinot, Anne; Assie, Guillaume; Libe, Rossella; Fassnacht, Martin; Papathomas, Thomas; Barreau, Olivia; De La Villeon, Bruno; Faillot, Simon; Hamzaoui, Nadim; Neou, Mario; Perlemoine, Karine; Rene-Corail, Fernande; Rodriguez, Stephanie; Sibony, Mathilde; Tissier, Frederique; Dousset, Bertrand; Sbiera, Silviu; Ronchi, Cristina; Kroiss, Matthias; Korpershoek, Esther; De Krijger, Ronald; Waldmann, Jens; Bartsch, Detlef K.; Quinkler, Marcus; Haissaguerre, Magalie; Tabarin, Antoine; Chabre, Olivier; Sturm, Nathalie; Luconi, Michaela; Mantero, Franco; Mannelli, Massimo; Cohen, Regis; Kerlan, Veronique; Touraine, Philippe; Barrande, Gaelle; Groussin, Lionel; Bertagna, Xavier; Baudin, Eric; Amar, Laurence; Beuschlein, Felix; Clauser, Eric; Coste, Joel; Bertherat, Jerome

2017-01-01

Context: Adrenocortical cancer (ACC) is an aggressive tumor with a heterogeneous outcome. Prognostic stratification is difficult even based on tumor stage and Ki67. Recently integrated genomics studies have demonstrated that CpG islands hypermethylation is correlated with poor survival. Objective:

Evaluation of prognostic factors in liver-limited metastatic colorectal cancer: a preplanned analysis of the FIRE-1 trial

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Giessen, C; Fischer von Weikersthal, L; Laubender, R P; Stintzing, S; Modest, D P; Schalhorn, A; Schulz, C; Heinemann, V

2013-01-01

Background: Liver-limited disease (LLD) denotes a specific subgroup of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients. Patients and Methods: A total of 479 patients with unresectable mCRC from an irinotecan-based randomised phase III trial were evaluated. Patients with LLD and non-LLD and hepatic resection were differentiated. Based on baseline patient characteristic, prognostic factors for hepatic resection were evaluated. Furthermore, prognostic factors for median overall survival (OS) were estimated via Cox regression in LLD patients. Results: Secondary liver resection was performed in 38 out of 479 patients (resection rate: 7.9%). Prognostic factors for hepatic resection were LLD, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), node-negative primary, alkaline phosphatase (AP) and Karnofsky performance status (PS). Median OS was significantly increased after hepatic resection (48 months), whereas OS in LLD (17 months) and non-LLD (19 months) was comparable in non-resected patients. With the inapplicability of Koehne's risk classification in LLD patients, a new score based on only the independent prognostic factors LDH and white blood cell (WBC) provided markedly improved information on the outcome. Conclusion: Patients undergoing hepatic resection showed favourable long-term survival, whereas non-resected LLD patients and non-LLD patients did not differ with regard to progression-free survival and OS. The LDH levels and WBC count were confirmed as prognostic factors and provide a useful and simple score for OS-related risk stratification also in LLD. PMID:23963138

Prognostic value of Ki-67 index in adult medulloblastoma after accounting for molecular subgroup: a retrospective clinical and molecular analysis.

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Zhao, Fu; Zhang, Jing; Li, Peng; Zhou, Qiangyi; Zhang, Shun; Zhao, Chi; Wang, Bo; Yang, Zhijun; Li, Chunde; Liu, Pinan

2018-04-23

Medulloblastoma (MB) is a rare primary brain tumor in adults. We previously evaluated that combining both clinical and molecular classification could improve current risk stratification for adult MB. In this study, we aimed to identify the prognostic value of Ki-67 index in adult MB. Ki-67 index of 51 primary adult MBs was reassessed using a computer-based image analysis (Image-Pro Plus). All patients were followed up ranging from 12 months up to 15 years. Gene expression profiling and immunochemistry were used to establish the molecular subgroups in adult MB. Combined risk stratification models were designed based on clinical characteristics, molecular classification and Ki-67 index, and identified by multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis. In our cohort, the mean Ki-67 value was 30.0 ± 11.3% (range 6.56-63.55%). The average Ki-67 value was significantly higher in LC/AMB than in CMB and DNMB (P = .001). Among three molecular subgroups, Group 4-tumors had the highest average Ki-67 value compared with WNT- and SHH-tumors (P = .004). Patients with Ki-67 index large than 30% displayed poorer overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS) than those with Ki-67 less than 30% (OS: P = .001; PFS: P = .006). Ki-67 index (i.e. > 30%, < 30%) was identified as an independent significant prognostic factor (OS: P = .017; PFS: P = .024) by using multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. In conclusion, Ki-67 index can be considered as a valuable independent prognostic biomarker for adult patients with MB.

Prognostic, predictive and pharmacogenomic assessments of CDX2 refine stratification of colorectal cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruun, Jarle; Sveen, Anita; Barros, Rita; Eide, Peter W; Eilertsen, Ina; Kolberg, Matthias; Pellinen, Teijo; David, Leonor; Svindland, Aud; Kallioniemi, Olli; Guren, Marianne G; Nesbakken, Arild; Almeida, Raquel; Lothe, Ragnhild A

2018-06-14

We aimed to refine the value of CDX2 as an independent prognostic and predictive biomarker in colorectal cancer (CRC) according to disease stage and chemotherapy sensitivity in preclinical models. CDX2 expression was evaluated in 1045 stage I-IV primary CRCs by gene expression (n=403) or immunohistochemistry (n=642) and in relation to 5-year relapse-free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS), and chemotherapy. Pharmacogenomic associations between CDX2 expression and 69 chemotherapeutics were assessed by drug screening of 35 CRC cell lines. CDX2 expression was lost in 11.6% of cases and showed independent poor prognostic value in multivariable models. For individual stages, CDX2 was prognostic only in stage IV, independent of chemotherapy. Among stage I-III patients not treated in an adjuvant setting, CDX2 loss was associated with a particularly poor survival in the BRAF-mutated subgroup, but prognostic value was independent of microsatellite instability status and the consensus molecular subtypes In stage III, the 5-year RFS rate was higher among patients with loss of CDX2 who received adjuvant chemotherapy than among patients who did not. The CDX2-negative cell lines were significantly more sensitive to chemotherapeutics than CDX2-positive cells, and the multidrug resistance genes MDR1 and CFTR were significantly downregulated both in CDX2-negative cells and patient tumors. Molecular Oncology (2018) © 2018 The Authors. Published by FEBS Press and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response score to guide decision-making in patients with suspected appendicitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, A J; Mason, S E; Arunakirinathan, M; Reissis, Y; Kinross, J M; Smith, J J

2015-04-01

Current management of suspected appendicitis is hampered by the overadmission of patients with non-specific abdominal pain and a significant negative exploration rate. The potential benefits of risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response (AIR) score to guide clinical decision-making were assessed. During this 50-week prospective observational study at one institution, the AIR score was calculated for all patients admitted with suspected appendicitis. Appendicitis was diagnosed by histological examination, and patients were classified as having non-appendicitis pain if histological findings were negative or surgery was not performed. The diagnostic performance of the AIR score and the potential for risk stratification to reduce admissions, optimize imaging and prevent unnecessary explorations were quantified. A total of 464 patients were included, of whom 210 (63·3 per cent) with non-appendicitis pain were correctly classified as low risk. However, 13 low-risk patients had appendicitis. Low-risk patients accounted for 48·1 per cent of admissions (223 of 464), 57 per cent of negative explorations (48 of 84) and 50·7 per cent of imaging requests (149 of 294). An AIR score of 5 or more (intermediate and high risk) had high sensitivity for all severities of appendicitis (90 per cent) and also for advanced appendicitis (98 per cent). An AIR score of 9 or more (high risk) was very specific (97 per cent) for appendicitis, and the majority of patients with appendicitis in the high-risk group (21 of 30, 70 per cent) had perforation or gangrene. Ultrasound imaging could not exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative likelihood ratio (LR) 1·0) but could rule-in the diagnosis in intermediate-risk patients (positive LR 10·2). CT could exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative LR 0·0) and rule-in appendicitis in the intermediate group (positive LR 10·9). Risk stratification of patients with suspected appendicitis by the AIR score could

Noninvasive Computed Tomography-based Risk Stratification of Lung Adenocarcinomas in the National Lung Screening Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Maldonado, Fabien; Duan, Fenghai; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A; Garg, Kavita; Greco, Erin; Nath, Hrudaya; Robb, Richard A; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias

2015-09-15

Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification. To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes. We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into three groups. CANARY risk groups were compared using survival analysis for progression-free survival. A total of 294 patients were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of all the 294 adenocarcinoma nodules stratified into the Good, Intermediate, and Poor CANARY risk groups yielded distinct progression-free survival curves (P < 0.0001). This observation was confirmed in the unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, race, and smoking status) progression-free survival analysis of all stage I cases. CANARY allows the noninvasive risk stratification of lung adenocarcinomas into three groups with distinct post-treatment progression-free survival. Our results suggest that CANARY could ultimately facilitate individualized management of incidentally or screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas.

Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy: Risk Stratification and Indications for Defibrillator Therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Zorzi, Alessandro; Rigato, Ilaria; Bauce, Barbara; Pilichou, Kalliopi; Basso, Cristina; Thiene, Gaetano; Iliceto, Sabino; Corrado, Domenico

2016-06-01

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is a genetically determined disease which predisposes to life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias. The main goal of ARVC therapy is prevention of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is the most effective therapy for interruption of potentially lethal ventricular tachyarrhythmias. Despite its life-saving potential, ICD implantation is associated with a high rate of complications and significant impact on quality of life. Accurate risk stratification is needed to identify individuals who most benefit from the therapy. While there is general agreement that patients with a history of cardiac arrest or hemodynamically unstable ventricular tachycardia are at high risk of SCD and needs an ICD, indications for primary prevention remain a matter of debate. The article reviews the available scientific evidence and guidelines that may help to stratify the arrhythmic risk of ARVC patients and guide ICD implantation. Other therapeutic strategies, either alternative or additional to ICD, will be also addressed.

Prognostic Value of RUNX1 Mutations in AML: A Meta-Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Jalili, Mahdi; Yaghmaie, Marjan; Ahmadvand, Mohammad; Alimoghaddam, Kamran; Mousavi, Seyed Asadollah; Vaezi, Mohammad; Ghavamzadeh, Ardeshir

2018-02-26

The RUNX1 (AML1) gene is a relatively infrequent mutational target in cases of acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Previous work indicated that RUNX1 mutations can have pathological and prognostic implications. To evaluate prognostic value, we conducted a meta-analysis of 4 previous published works with data for survival according to RUNX1 mutation status. Pooled hazard ratios for overall survival and disease-free survival were 1.55 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.11–2.15; p-value = 0.01) and 1.76 (95% CI = 1.24–2.52; p-value = 0.002), respectively, for cases positive for RUNX1 mutations. This evidence supports clinical implications of RUNX1 mutations in the development and progression of AML cases and points to the possibility of a distinct category within the newer WHO classification. Though it must be kept in mind that the present work was based on data extracted from observational studies, the findings suggest that the RUNX1 status can contribute to risk-stratification and decision-making in management of AML. Creative Commons Attribution License

TP53 mutational status is a potential marker for risk stratification in Wilms tumour with diffuse anaplasia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariana Maschietto

Full Text Available The presence of diffuse anaplasia in Wilms tumours (DAWT is associated with TP53 mutations and poor outcome. As patients receive intensified treatment, we sought to identify whether TP53 mutational status confers additional prognostic information.We studied 40 patients with DAWT with anaplasia in the tissue from which DNA was extracted and analysed for TP53 mutations and 17p loss. The majority of cases were profiled by copy number (n = 32 and gene expression (n = 36 arrays. TP53 mutational status was correlated with patient event-free and overall survival, genomic copy number instability and gene expression profiling.From the 40 cases, 22 (55% had TP53 mutations (2 detected only after deep-sequencing, 20 of which also had 17p loss (91%; 18 (45% cases had no detectable mutation but three had 17p loss. Tumours with TP53 mutations and/or 17p loss (n = 25 had an increased risk of recurrence as a first event (p = 0.03, hazard ratio (HR, 3.89; 95% confidence interval (CI, 1.26-16.0 and death (p = 0.04, HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.36-31.7 compared to tumours lacking TP53 abnormalities. DAWT carrying TP53 mutations showed increased copy number alterations compared to those with wild-type, suggesting a more unstable genome (p = 0.03. These tumours showed deregulation of genes associated with cell cycle and DNA repair biological processes.This study provides evidence that TP53 mutational analysis improves risk stratification in DAWT. This requires validation in an independent cohort before clinical use as a biomarker.

TP53 mutational status is a potential marker for risk stratification in Wilms tumour with diffuse anaplasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Maschietto, Mariana; Williams, Richard D; Chagtai, Tasnim; Popov, Sergey D; Sebire, Neil J; Vujanic, Gordan; Perlman, Elizabeth; Anderson, James R; Grundy, Paul; Dome, Jeffrey S; Pritchard-Jones, Kathy

2014-01-01

The presence of diffuse anaplasia in Wilms tumours (DAWT) is associated with TP53 mutations and poor outcome. As patients receive intensified treatment, we sought to identify whether TP53 mutational status confers additional prognostic information. We studied 40 patients with DAWT with anaplasia in the tissue from which DNA was extracted and analysed for TP53 mutations and 17p loss. The majority of cases were profiled by copy number (n = 32) and gene expression (n = 36) arrays. TP53 mutational status was correlated with patient event-free and overall survival, genomic copy number instability and gene expression profiling. From the 40 cases, 22 (55%) had TP53 mutations (2 detected only after deep-sequencing), 20 of which also had 17p loss (91%); 18 (45%) cases had no detectable mutation but three had 17p loss. Tumours with TP53 mutations and/or 17p loss (n = 25) had an increased risk of recurrence as a first event (p = 0.03, hazard ratio (HR), 3.89; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26-16.0) and death (p = 0.04, HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.36-31.7) compared to tumours lacking TP53 abnormalities. DAWT carrying TP53 mutations showed increased copy number alterations compared to those with wild-type, suggesting a more unstable genome (p = 0.03). These tumours showed deregulation of genes associated with cell cycle and DNA repair biological processes. This study provides evidence that TP53 mutational analysis improves risk stratification in DAWT. This requires validation in an independent cohort before clinical use as a biomarker.

Segmented Symbolic Dynamics for Risk Stratification in Patients with Ischemic Heart Failure, Cardiovascular Engineering and Technology

OpenAIRE

Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Caminal Magrans, Pere; Vallverdú Ferrer, Montserrat; Brunel, Helena; Cygankiewicz, I.; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayes de Luna, Antonio

2010-01-01

Chronic heart failure (CHF) is recognized as major and escalating public health problem. Approximately 69% of CHF patients suffer from cardiac death within 5 years after the initial diagnosis. Until now, no generally accepted ECG risk predictors in CHF patients are available. The objective of this study was to investigate the suitability of the new developed non-linear method segmented symbolic dynamics (SSD) for risk stratification in patients with ischemic cardiomyop...

Meta-analysis of prognostic factors for amputation following surgical repair of lower extremity vascular trauma.

Science.gov (United States)

Perkins, Z B; Yet, B; Glasgow, S; Cole, E; Marsh, W; Brohi, K; Rasmussen, T E; Tai, N R M

2015-04-01

Lower extremity vascular trauma (LEVT) is a major cause of amputation. A clear understanding of prognostic factors for amputation is important to inform surgical decision-making, patient counselling and risk stratification. The aim was to develop an understanding of prognostic factors for amputation following surgical repair of LEVT. A systematic review was conducted to identify potential prognostic factors. Bayesian meta-analysis was used to calculate an absolute (pooled proportion) and relative (pooled odds ratio, OR) measure of the amputation risk for each factor. Forty-five studies, totalling 3187 discrete LEVT repairs, were included. The overall amputation rate was 10·0 (95 per cent credible interval 7·4 to 13·1) per cent. Significant prognostic factors for secondary amputation included: associated major soft tissue injury (26 versus 8 per cent for no soft tissue injury; OR 5·80), compartment syndrome (28 versus 6 per cent; OR 5·11), multiple arterial injuries (18 versus 9 per cent; OR 4·85), duration of ischaemia exceeding 6 h (24 versus 5 per cent; OR 4·40), associated fracture (14 versus 2 per cent; OR 4·30), mechanism of injury (blast 19 per cent, blunt 16 per cent, penetrating 5 per cent), anatomical site of injury (iliac 18 per cent, popliteal 14 per cent, tibial 10 per cent, femoral 4 per cent), age over 55 years (16 versus 9 per cent; OR 3·03) and sex (men 7 per cent versus women 8 per cent; OR 0·64). Shock and nerve or venous injuries were not significant prognostic factors for secondary amputation. A significant proportion of patients who undergo lower extremity vascular trauma repair will require secondary amputation. This meta-analysis describes significant prognostic factors needed to inform surgical judgement, risk assessment and patient counselling. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Lagged segmented Poincaré plot analysis for risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Voss, Andreas; Fischer, Claudia; Schroeder, Rico; Figulla, Hans R; Goernig, Matthias

2012-07-01

The objectives of this study were to introduce a new type of heart-rate variability analysis improving risk stratification in patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and to provide additional information about impaired heart beat generation in these patients. Beat-to-beat intervals (BBI) of 30-min ECGs recorded from 91 DCM patients and 21 healthy subjects were analyzed applying the lagged segmented Poincaré plot analysis (LSPPA) method. LSPPA includes the Poincaré plot reconstruction with lags of 1-100, rotating the cloud of points, its normalized segmentation adapted to their standard deviations, and finally, a frequency-dependent clustering. The lags were combined into eight different clusters representing specific frequency bands within 0.012-1.153 Hz. Statistical differences between low- and high-risk DCM could be found within the clusters II-VIII (e.g., cluster IV: 0.033-0.038 Hz; p = 0.0002; sensitivity = 85.7 %; specificity = 71.4 %). The multivariate statistics led to a sensitivity of 92.9 %, specificity of 85.7 % and an area under the curve of 92.1 % discriminating these patient groups. We introduced the LSPPA method to investigate time correlations in BBI time series. We found that LSPPA contributes considerably to risk stratification in DCM and yields the highest discriminant power in the low and very low-frequency bands.

Prognostic Utility of Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio on Adverse Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Severe Calcific Aortic Stenosis.

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Kyoung Im Cho

Full Text Available Inflammation is an important factor in the pathogenesis of calcific aortic stenosis (AS. We aimed to evaluate the association between an inflammatory marker, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE in patients with severe calcific AS.A total of 336 patients with isolated severe calcific AS newly diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were enrolled in this study. Using Cox proportional hazards (PH regression models, we investigated the prognostic value of NLR adjusted for baseline covariates including logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation score (EuroSCORE-I and undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR. We also evaluated the clinical relevance of NLR risk groups (divided into low, intermediate, high risk as categorized by NLR cutoff values. MACE was defined as a composite of all-cause mortality, cardiac death and non-fatal myocardial infarction during the follow-up period.The inflammatory marker NLR was an independent prognostic factor most significantly associated with MACE [hazard ratio (HR, 1.06; 95% confidence interval (CI, 1.04-1.09; p-value 9, respectively.The findings of the present study demonstrate the potential utility of NLR in risk stratification of patients with severe calcific AS.

[Syncope and work: role of the occupational physician and global risk stratification].

Science.gov (United States)

Barbic, F; Angaroni, L; Orlandi, M; Costantino, G; Dipaola, E; Borleri, D; Borchini, R; D'Adda, F; Perego, F; Borella, M; Galli, A; Solbiati, M; Scanella, E; Casazza, G; Seghizzi, P; Furlan, R

2011-01-01

Safety risk for subjects suffering from syncope while working has not been as yet addressed by occupational medicine. The present study was aimed at evaluating a new developed methodology for job tasks risk stratification in patients with syncope. During a work-shop on syncope and occupational risk, 149 occupational physicians (OP) with about 10 years of clinical experience were asked to fulfil a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) concerning the doctor's estimated potential damage (D) to the worker and the probability of a damage to occur (P) should syncope take place during the job task. Five job tasks characterized by different risk for safety (1, driving; 2, toxic products handling; 3, job performed closed to hot surfaces o free flames; 4, surgical activity; 5, office job) were identified. OP correctly stratified the risk associated to the different job tasks in patients with syncope. Unexpectedly, task #3 was given a risk similar to that obtained in drivers. This might be of paramount clinical and social importance when patients with syncope have to return to their job tasks.

Mean platelet volume as a risk stratification tool in the Emergency Department for evaluating patients with ischaemic stroke and TIA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dogan, N.O.; Karakurt, K.

2013-01-01

Objective: To investigate the variations of mean platelet volume in patients with ischaemic cerebrovascular complaints, and to find out its diagnostic utility in an acute setting to help risk stratification in patients with ischaemic stroke and transient ischaemic attacks. Methods: The prospective cross-sectional study was conducted at the Gazi University Hospital, Ankara, Turkey, from November 2009 to June 2010. It comprised 143 consecutive patients of acute ischaemic stroke, 39 patients of transient ischaemic attacks and 60 healthy volunteers. SPSS 13 was used for statistical analysis, and so were t-test, one-way analysis of variance test and correlation analysis. Statistical significance was accepted at p <0.05. Results: Mean platelet volume results were significantly higher in patients with cortical infarction and transient ischaemic attack compared to the control group (p <0.001 and p <0.002). A statistically significant increase was also noted in hospitalised patients when compared with discharged patients from the emergency department (p <0.036). A weak positive correlation was identified between the National Institute of Health Stroke Scores and mean platelet volume levels (r=0.207; p <0.001). A significant relationship was identified between mean platelet volume levels and previous stroke (p <0.005). Conclusion: The measurement of mean platelet volume levels may provide useful diagnostic and prognostic information to emergency physicians caring for patients with transient ischaemic attack and ischaemic stroke. In patients with suspected neurological ischaemic symptoms, high levels may be considered as an atherosclerotic risk factor. (author)

A clinically based prognostic index for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma with a cut-off at 70 years of age significantly improves prognostic stratification

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Gang, Anne O.; Pedersen, Michael; d'Amore, Francesco

2015-01-01

The introduction of rituximab and generally improved health among elderly patients have increased the survival of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). The International Prognostic Index (IPI) from 1992 is based on pre-rituximab data from clinical trials including several lymphoma ...... dehydrogenase (LDH), stage and albumin level, and (2) a separate age-adjusted DLBCL-PI for patients 1 extranodal lesion, however excluding stage....... subtypes. We applied IPI factors to a population-based rituximab-treated cohort of 1990 patients diagnosed 2000-2010 and explored new factors and the optimal prognostic age cut-off for DLBCL. Multivariate-analyses (MVA) confirmed the prognostic value of all IPI factors except the presence of > 1 extranodal...... lesion. The optimal age cut-off was 70 years. In a MVA of albumin, lymphocyte count, sex, immunoglobulin G, bulky disease, hemoglobin and B-symptoms, only albumin was prognostic. We propose: (1) a modified DLBCL prognostic index (DLBCL-PI) including: age (70 years), performance status (PS), lactate...

Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning.

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Fusar-Poli, P; Schultze-Lutter, F

2016-02-01

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes' theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Risk factors and prognostic models for perinatal asphyxia at term

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ensing, S.

2015-01-01

This thesis will focus on the risk factors and prognostic models for adverse perinatal outcome at term, with a special focus on perinatal asphyxia and obstetric interventions during labor to reduce adverse pregnancy outcomes. For the majority of the studies in this thesis we were allowed to use data

GERD—Barrett—Adenocarcinoma: Do We Have Suitable Prognostic and Predictive Molecular Markers?

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Romana Illig

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Due to unfavorable lifestyle habits (unhealthy diet and tobacco abuse the incidence of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD in western countries is increasing. The GERD-Barrett-Adenocarcinoma sequence currently lacks well-defined diagnostic, progressive, predictive, and prognostic biomarkers (i providing an appropriate screening method identifying the presence of the disease, (ii estimating the risk of evolving cancer, that is, the progression from Barrett’s esophagus (BE to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC, (iii predicting the response to therapy, and (iv indicating an overall survival—prognosis for EAC patients. Based on histomorphological findings, detailed screening and therapeutic guidelines have been elaborated, although epidemiological studies could not support the postulated increasing progression rates of GERD to BE and EAC. Additionally, proposed predictive and prognostic markers are rather heterogeneous by nature, lack substantial proofs, and currently do not allow stratification of GERD patients for progression, outcome, and therapeutic effectiveness in clinical practice. The aim of this paper is to discuss the current knowledge regarding the GERD-BE-EAC sequence mainly focusing on the disputable and ambiguous status of proposed biomarkers to identify promising and reliable markers in order to provide more detailed insights into pathophysiological mechanisms and thus to improve prognostic and predictive therapeutic approaches.

Geriatric nutritional risk index as a prognostic factor in patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma.

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Kanemasa, Yusuke; Shimoyama, Tatsu; Sasaki, Yuki; Hishima, Tsunekazu; Omuro, Yasushi

2018-06-01

The geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) is a simple and well-established nutritional assessment tool that is a significant prognostic factor for various cancers. However, the role of the GNRI in predicting clinical outcomes of diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients has not been investigated. To address this issue, we retrospectively analyzed a total of 476 patients with newly diagnosed de novo DLBCL. We defined the best cutoff value of the GNRI as 96.8 using a receiver operating characteristic curve. Patients with a GNRI risk by National Comprehensive Cancer Network-International Prognostic Index (NCCN-IPI), the 5-year OS was significantly lower in patients with a GNRI risk, 59.5 vs. 75.2%, P = 0.006; high risk, 37.4 vs. 64.9%, P = 0.033). In the present study, we demonstrated that the GNRI was an independent prognostic factor in DLBCL patients. The GNRI could identify a population of poor-risk patients among those with high-intermediate and high-risk by NCCN-IPI.

Prognostic Biomarkers Used for Localised Prostate Cancer Management: A Systematic Review.

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Lamy, Pierre-Jean; Allory, Yves; Gauchez, Anne-Sophie; Asselain, Bernard; Beuzeboc, Philippe; de Cremoux, Patricia; Fontugne, Jacqueline; Georges, Agnès; Hennequin, Christophe; Lehmann-Che, Jacqueline; Massard, Christophe; Millet, Ingrid; Murez, Thibaut; Schlageter, Marie-Hélène; Rouvière, Olivier; Kassab-Chahmi, Diana; Rozet, François; Descotes, Jean-Luc; Rébillard, Xavier

2017-03-07

Prostate cancer stratification is based on tumour size, pretreatment PSA level, and Gleason score, but it remains imperfect. Current research focuses on the discovery and validation of novel prognostic biomarkers to improve the identification of patients at risk of aggressive cancer or of tumour relapse. This systematic review by the Intergroupe Coopérateur Francophone de Recherche en Onco-urologie (ICFuro) analysed new evidence on the analytical validity and clinical validity and utility of six prognostic biomarkers (PHI, 4Kscore, MiPS, GPS, Prolaris, Decipher). All available data for the six biomarkers published between January 2002 and April 2015 were systematically searched and reviewed. The main endpoints were aggressive prostate cancer prediction, additional value compared to classical prognostic parameters, and clinical benefit for patients with localised prostate cancer. The preanalytical and analytical validations were heterogeneous for all tests and often not adequate for the molecular signatures. Each biomarker was studied for specific indications (candidates for a first or second biopsy, and potential candidates for active surveillance, radical prostatectomy, or adjuvant treatment) for which the level of evidence (LOE) was variable. PHI and 4Kscore were the biomarkers with the highest LOE for discriminating aggressive and indolent tumours in different indications. Blood biomarkers (PHI and 4Kscore) have the highest LOE for the prediction of more aggressive prostate cancer and could help clinicians to manage patients with localised prostate cancer. The other biomarkers show a potential prognostic value; however, they should be evaluated in additional studies to confirm their clinical validity. We reviewed studies assessing the value of six prognostic biomarkers for prostate cancer. On the basis of the available evidence, some biomarkers could help in discriminating between aggressive and non-aggressive tumours with an additional value compared to the

Report on outcomes of hypomethylating therapy for analyzing prognostic value of Revised International Prognostic Scoring System for patients with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes.

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Lee, Yoo Jin; Park, Sung Woo; Lee, In Hee; Ahn, Jae Sook; Kim, Hyeoung Joon; Chung, Joo Seop; Shin, Ho Jin; Lee, Won Sik; Lee, Sang Min; Joo, Young Don; Kim, Hawk; Lee, Ho Sup; Kim, Yang Soo; Cho, Yoon Young; Moon, Joon Ho; Sohn, Sang Kyun

2016-10-01

The outcomes for patients with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (LR-MDS) by the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) vary widely. For more precise prognostication, this study evaluates the prognostic value of revised IPSS with the response to hypomethylating therapy (HMT). Using the Korean MDS Working Party database, treatment outcomes for 236 patients with HMT were retrospectively evaluated. The patients were then reclassified into very low/low (VL/L), intermediate (INT), and high (H) risk groups according to IPSS-R. According to the HMT response, the 3-year overall survival (OS) did not differ between the response group (37.9 ± 9.1 %) and the stable group (52.9 ± 6.6 %, p = 0. 782). When reclassifying according to IPSS-R, 42 patients (20.8 %) were reclassified into the H risk group. Most of them did not have benefit from continued HMT and progressed to secondary failure. The median OS was 59.0 months (range, 40.0-77.9 months) for the VL/L risk group, 31 months (range, 22.7-439.3 months) for the INT risk group, and 20.0 months (range, 15.9-24.1 months) for the H risk group (p risk group according to IPSS-R (HR = 3.054, p risk according to IPSS-R (HR = 4.912, p = 0.003), and transformation to AML (HR = 2.158, p = 0.002). If IPSS-R reclassifies LR-MDS patients as H risk, these patients should be considered for early allo-HCT, regardless of the current benefits from HMT.

Joint System Prognostics For Increased Efficiency And Risk Mitigation In Advanced Nuclear Reactor Instrumentation and Control

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Donald D. Dudenhoeffer; Tuan Q. Tran; Ronald L. Boring; Bruce P. Hallbert

2006-08-01

The science of prognostics is analogous to a doctor who, based on a set of symptoms and patient tests, assesses a probable cause, the risk to the patient, and a course of action for recovery. While traditional prognostics research has focused on the aspect of hydraulic and mechanical systems and associated failures, this project will take a joint view in focusing not only on the digital I&C aspect of reliability and risk, but also on the risks associated with the human element. Model development will not only include an approximation of the control system physical degradation but also on human performance degradation. Thus the goal of the prognostic system is to evaluate control room operation; to identify and potentially take action when performance degradation reduces plant efficiency, reliability or safety.

The value of exercise radionuclide ventriculography in risk stratification after coronary arterial bypass grafting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iskandrian, A.S.; Hakki, A.H.; Goel, I.P.; Mundth, E.D.; Kane, S.; Schenk, C.

1985-01-01

Cardiac events after coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) may be related to left ventricular (LV) function, residual coronary artery diseases (CAD), graft occlusion, and progression of CAD. This study examined the value of rest and exercise (EX) radionuclide ventriculography (RNV) done 3-6 mos after CABG in risk stratification in 212 pts. There were 185 men and 27 women, aged 57 +- 8 years (mean +- SD). During a followup period of up to 4 years, (15 +- 10 months), there were 23 cardiac events; 13 pts died of cardiac causes and 20 had non-fatal acute myocardial infarctions. The pts with and without events did not differ in: clinical presentation after CABG (most were asymptomatic), medications and ECG findings at rest and EX. The pts with events had lower EX systolic blood pressure (p < 0.01); resting LV ejection fraction (EF) (p = 0.002), and EX EF (40 +- 18% vs 54 +- 16%, p = 0.002). The change in EF (rest to EX) was not significantly different (l.6 +- 8.2%, vs 2.1 +- 9.2%). Survival analysis (Cox model) identified the EX EF as the best predictor of death and total events (X/sup 2/ = 4.3 and 2.4, p = 0.04 and 0.07 respectively). Actuarial life table analysis showed that the risk increased as the EX EF decreased when pts were grouped into EX EF ≥ 50, 30-49, and <30%, (p < 0.001, Mantel-Cox). Thus, EX RNA is useful in risk stratification after CABG. The EX LVEF is an important descriptor that categorizes pts into different risks groups. The pts at high risk probably require more aggressive followup and continued medical therapy

Noninvasive Computed Tomography–based Risk Stratification of Lung Adenocarcinomas in the National Lung Screening Trial

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Maldonado, Fabien; Duan, Fenghai; Raghunath, Sushravya M.; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A.; Garg, Kavita; Greco, Erin; Nath, Hrudaya; Robb, Richard A.; Bartholmai, Brian J.

2015-01-01

Rationale: Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification. Objectives: To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes. Methods: We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into three groups. CANARY risk groups were compared using survival analysis for progression-free survival. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 294 patients were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of all the 294 adenocarcinoma nodules stratified into the Good, Intermediate, and Poor CANARY risk groups yielded distinct progression-free survival curves (P < 0.0001). This observation was confirmed in the unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, race, and smoking status) progression-free survival analysis of all stage I cases. Conclusions: CANARY allows the noninvasive risk stratification of lung adenocarcinomas into three groups with distinct post-treatment progression-free survival. Our results suggest that CANARY could ultimately facilitate individualized management of incidentally or screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas. PMID:26052977

Hepatitis B virus reactivation during immunosuppressive therapy: Appropriate risk stratification.

Science.gov (United States)

Seto, Wai-Kay

2015-04-28

Our understanding of hepatitis B virus (HBV) reactivation during immunosuppresive therapy has increased remarkably during recent years. HBV reactivation in hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive individuals has been well-described in certain immunosuppressive regimens, including therapies containing corticosteroids, anthracyclines, rituximab, antibody to tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). HBV reactivation could also occur in HBsAg-negative, antibody to hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc) positive individuals during therapies containing rituximab, anti-TNF or HSCT.For HBsAg-positive patients, prophylactic antiviral therapy is proven to the effective in preventing HBV reactivation. Recent evidence also demonstrated entecavir to be more effective than lamivudine in this aspect. For HBsAg-negative, anti-HBc positive individuals, the risk of reactivations differs with the type of immunosuppression. For rituximab, a prospective study demonstrated the 2-year cumulative risk of reactivation to be 41.5%, but prospective data is still lacking for other immunosupressive regimes. The optimal management in preventing HBV reactivation would involve appropriate risk stratification for different immunosuppressive regimes in both HBsAg-positive and HBsAg-negative, anti-HBc positive individuals.

Stratification and Prognostic Relevance of Jass’s Molecular Classification of Colorectal Cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zlobec, Inti; Bihl, Michel P.; Foerster, Anja; Rufle, Alex; Terracciano, Luigi; Lugli, Alessandro

2012-01-01

Background: The current proposed model of colorectal tumorigenesis is based primarily on CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), microsatellite instability (MSI), KRAS, BRAF, and methylation status of 0-6-Methylguanine DNA Methyltransferase (MGMT) and classifies tumors into five subgroups. The aim of this study is to validate this molecular classification and test its prognostic relevance. Methods: Three hundred two patients were included in this study. Molecular analysis was performed for five CIMP-related promoters (CRABP1, MLH1, p16INK4a, CACNA1G, NEUROG1), MGMT, MSI, KRAS, and BRAF. Methylation in at least 4 promoters or in one to three promoters was considered CIMP-high and CIMP-low (CIMP-H/L), respectively. Results: CIMP-H, CIMP-L, and CIMP-negative were found in 7.1, 43, and 49.9% cases, respectively. One hundred twenty-three tumors (41%) could not be classified into any one of the proposed molecular subgroups, including 107 CIMP-L, 14 CIMP-H, and two CIMP-negative cases. The 10 year survival rate for CIMP-high patients [22.6% (95%CI: 7–43)] was significantly lower than for CIMP-L or CIMP-negative (p = 0.0295). Only the combined analysis of BRAF and CIMP (negative versus L/H) led to distinct prognostic subgroups. Conclusion: Although CIMP status has an effect on outcome, our results underline the need for standardized definitions of low- and high-level CIMP, which clearly hinders an effective prognostic and molecular classification of colorectal cancer.

Stratification and Prognostic Relevance of Jass’s Molecular Classification of Colorectal Cancer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zlobec, Inti [Institute of Pathology, University of Bern, Bern (Switzerland); Institute for Pathology, University Hospital Basel, Basel (Switzerland); Bihl, Michel P.; Foerster, Anja; Rufle, Alex; Terracciano, Luigi [Institute for Pathology, University Hospital Basel, Basel (Switzerland); Lugli, Alessandro, E-mail: inti.zlobec@pathology.unibe.ch [Institute of Pathology, University of Bern, Bern (Switzerland); Institute for Pathology, University Hospital Basel, Basel (Switzerland)

2012-02-27

Background: The current proposed model of colorectal tumorigenesis is based primarily on CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), microsatellite instability (MSI), KRAS, BRAF, and methylation status of 0-6-Methylguanine DNA Methyltransferase (MGMT) and classifies tumors into five subgroups. The aim of this study is to validate this molecular classification and test its prognostic relevance. Methods: Three hundred two patients were included in this study. Molecular analysis was performed for five CIMP-related promoters (CRABP1, MLH1, p16INK4a, CACNA1G, NEUROG1), MGMT, MSI, KRAS, and BRAF. Methylation in at least 4 promoters or in one to three promoters was considered CIMP-high and CIMP-low (CIMP-H/L), respectively. Results: CIMP-H, CIMP-L, and CIMP-negative were found in 7.1, 43, and 49.9% cases, respectively. One hundred twenty-three tumors (41%) could not be classified into any one of the proposed molecular subgroups, including 107 CIMP-L, 14 CIMP-H, and two CIMP-negative cases. The 10 year survival rate for CIMP-high patients [22.6% (95%CI: 7–43)] was significantly lower than for CIMP-L or CIMP-negative (p = 0.0295). Only the combined analysis of BRAF and CIMP (negative versus L/H) led to distinct prognostic subgroups. Conclusion: Although CIMP status has an effect on outcome, our results underline the need for standardized definitions of low- and high-level CIMP, which clearly hinders an effective prognostic and molecular classification of colorectal cancer.

Stratification and prognostic relevance of Jass’s molecular classification of colorectal cancer

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Inti eZlobec

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Background: The current proposed model of colorectal tumorigenesis is based primarily on CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP, microsatellite instability (MSI, KRAS, BRAF, and methylation status of 0-6-Methylguanine DNA Methyltransferase (MGMT and classifies tumors into 5 subgroups. The aim of this study is to validate this molecular classification and test its prognostic relevance. Methods: 302 patients were included in this study. Molecular analysis was performed for 5 CIMP-related promoters (CRABP1, MLH1, p16INK4a, CACNA1G, NEUROG1, MGMT, MSI, KRAS and BRAF. Tumors were CIMP-high or CIMP-low if ≥4 and 1-3 promoters were methylated, respectively. Results: CIMP-high, CIMP-low and CIMP–negative were found in 7.1%, 43% and 49.9% cases, respectively. 123 tumors (41% could not be classified into any one of the proposed molecular subgroups, including 107 CIMP-low, 14 CIMP-high and 2 CIMP-negative cases. The 10-year survival rate for CIMP-high patients (22.6% (95%CI: 7-43 was significantly lower than for CIMP-low or CIMP-negative (p=0.0295. Only the combined analysis of BRAF and CIMP (negative versus low/high led to distinct prognostic subgroups. Conclusion: Although CIMP status has an effect on outcome, our results underline the need for standardized definitions of low- and high-level CIMP, which clearly hinders an effective prognostic and molecular classification of colorectal cancer.

The incremental value of brachial flow-mediated dilation measurements in risk stratification for incident cardiovascular events: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Sanne A E; den Ruijter, Hester M; Bots, Michiel L

2012-06-01

Abstract Adequate risk assessment for cardiovascular disease (CVD) is essential as a guide to initiate drug treatment. Current methods based on traditional risk factors could be improved considerably. Although brachial flow-mediated dilation (FMD) predicts subsequent cardiovascular events, its predictive value on top of traditional risk factors is unknown. We performed a systematic review to evaluate the incremental predictive value of FMD on top of traditional risk factors in asymptomatic individuals. Using PubMed and reference tracking, three studies were identified that reported on the incremental value of FMD using change in the area under the curve (AUC). Two large cohort studies found no improvement in AUC when FMD was added to traditional risk prediction models, whereas one small case-control study found an improvement. One study used the net reclassification improvement (NRI) to assess whether FMD measurement leads to correct risk stratification in risk categories. Although this study did not find an improvement in AUC, the NRI was statistically significant. Based on the reclassification results of this study, FMD measurement might be helpful in risk prediction. Evidence supporting the use of FMD measurement in clinical practice for risk stratification for CVD on top of traditional risk factors is limited, and future studies are needed.

Confirmation of the mantle-cell lymphoma International Prognostic Index in randomized trials of the European Mantle-Cell Lymphoma Network

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoster, Eva; Klapper, Wolfram; Hermine, Olivier

2014-01-01

PURPOSE: Mantle-cell lymphoma (MCL) is a distinct B-cell lymphoma associated with poor outcome. In 2008, the MCL International Prognostic Index (MIPI) was developed as the first prognostic stratification tool specifically directed to patients with MCL. External validation was planned.......9) and 2.6 (2.0 to 3.3), respectively. MIPI was similarly prognostic for TTF. All four clinical baseline characteristics constituting the MIPI, age, performance status, lactate dehydrogenase level, and WBC count, were confirmed as independent prognostic factors for OS and TTF. The validity of MIPI...

Stratification for smoking in case-cohort studies of genetic polymorphisms and lung cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Mette; López, Ana García; Andersen, Per Kragh

2009-01-01

and adjustment for smoking on the estimated effect of polymorphisms on lung cancer risk was explored in the case-cohort design. We used an empirical and a statistical simulation approach. The stratification strategies were: no smoking stratification, stratification for smoking status and stratification......The risk estimates obtained in studies of genetic polymorphisms and lung cancer differ markedly between studies, which might be due to chance or differences in study design, in particular the stratification/match of comparison group. The effect of different strategies for stratification...... for smoking duration. The study base was a prospective follow-up study with 57,053 participants. In the simulation approach the glutathione S-transferase T1 null polymorphism, as a model of any polymorphism, was added to simulated data in two different ways, assuming either absence or presence of association...

Clinical potentials of methylator phenotype in stage 4 high-risk neuroblastoma: an open challenge.

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Barbara Banelli

Full Text Available Approximately 20% of stage 4 high-risk neuroblastoma patients are alive and disease-free 5 years after disease onset while the remaining experience rapid and fatal progression. Numerous findings underline the prognostic role of methylation of defined target genes in neuroblastoma without taking into account the clinical and biological heterogeneity of this disease. In this report we have investigated the methylation of the PCDHB cluster, the most informative member of the "Methylator Phenotype" in neuroblastoma, hypothesizing that if this epigenetic mark can predict overall and progression free survival in high-risk stage 4 neuroblastoma, it could be utilized to improve the risk stratification of the patients, alone or in conjunction with the previously identified methylation of the SFN gene (14.3.3sigma that can accurately predict outcome in these patients. We have utilized univariate and multivariate models to compare the prognostic power of PCDHB methylation in terms of overall and progression free survival, quantitatively determined by pyrosequencing, with that of other markers utilized for the patients' stratification utilizing methylation thresholds calculated on neuroblastoma at stage 1-4 and only on stage 4, high-risk patients. Our results indicate that PCDHB accurately distinguishes between high- and intermediate/low risk stage 4 neuroblastoma in agreement with the established risk stratification criteria. However PCDHB cannot predict outcome in the subgroup of stage 4 patients at high-risk whereas methylation levels of SFN are suggestive of a "methylation gradient" associated with tumor aggressiveness as suggested by the finding of a higher threshold that defines a subset of patients with an extremely severe disease (OS <24 months. Because of the heterogeneity of neuroblastoma we believe that clinically relevant methylation markers should be selected and tested on homogeneous groups of patients rather than on patients at all stages.

Chromosome 17 alterations identify good-risk and poor-risk tumors independently of clinical factors in medulloblastoma

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McCabe, Martin G.; Bäcklund, L. Magnus; Leong, Hui Sun; Ichimura, Koichi; Collins, V. Peter

2011-01-01

Current risk stratification schemas for medulloblastoma, based on combinations of clinical variables and histotype, fail to accurately identify particularly good- and poor-risk tumors. Attempts have been made to improve discriminatory power by combining clinical variables with cytogenetic data. We report here a pooled analysis of all previous reports of chromosomal copy number related to survival data in medulloblastoma. We collated data from previous reports that explicitly quoted survival data and chromosomal copy number in medulloblastoma. We analyzed the relative prognostic significance of currently used clinical risk stratifiers and the chromosomal aberrations previously reported to correlate with survival. In the pooled dataset metastatic disease, incomplete tumor resection and severe anaplasia were associated with poor outcome, while young age at presentation was not prognostically significant. Of the chromosomal variables studied, isolated 17p loss and gain of 1q correlated with poor survival. Gain of 17q without associated loss of 17p showed a trend to improved outcome. The most commonly reported alteration, isodicentric chromosome 17, was not prognostically significant. Sequential multivariate models identified isolated 17p loss, isolated 17q gain, and 1q gain as independent prognostic factors. In a historical dataset, we have identified isolated 17p loss as a marker of poor outcome and 17q gain as a novel putative marker of good prognosis. Biological markers of poor-risk and good-risk tumors will be critical in stratifying treatment in future trials. Our findings should be prospectively validated independently in future clinical studies. PMID:21292688

Noninvasive non Doses Method for Risk Stratification of Breast Diseases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. A. Apollonova

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article concerns a relevant issue that is a development of noninvasive method for screening diagnostics and risk stratification of breast diseases. The developed method and its embodiment use both the analysis of onco-epidemiologic tests and the iridoglyphical research.Widely used onco-epidemiologic tests only reflect the patient’s subjective perception of her own life history and sickness. Therefore to confirm the revealed factors, modern objective and safe methods are necessary.Iridoglyphical research may be considered as one of those methods, since it allows us to reveal changes in iris’ zones in real time. As these zones are functionally linked with intern organs and systems, in this case mammary glands, changes of iris’ zones may be used to assess risk groups for mammary gland disorders.The article presents results of research conducted using a prototype of the hardwaresoftware complex to provide screening diagnostics and risk stratification of mammary gland disorders.Research has been conducted using verified materials, provided by the Biomedical Engineering Faculty and the Scientific Biometry Research and Development Centre of Bauman Moscow State Technical University, the City of Moscow’s GUZ Clinical and Diagnostic Centre N°4 of the Western Administrative District and the First Mammology (Breast Care Centre of the Russian Federation’s Ministry of Health and Social Development.The information, obtained as a result of onco-epidemiological tests and iridoglyphical research, was used to develop a procedure of quantitative diagnostics aimed to assess mammary gland cancer risk groups. The procedure is based on Bayes conditional probability.The task of quantitative diagnostics may be formally divided into the differential assessment of three states. The first, D1, is the norm, which corresponds to the population group with a lack of risk factors or changes of the mammary glands. The second, D2, is the population group

Development of a modified prognostic index for patients with aggressive adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma aged 70 years or younger: possible risk-adapted management strategies including allogeneic transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Fuji, Shigeo; Yamaguchi, Takuhiro; Inoue, Yoshitaka; Utsunomiya, Atae; Moriuchi, Yukiyoshi; Uchimaru, Kaoru; Owatari, Satsuki; Miyagi, Takashi; Taguchi, Jun; Choi, Ilseung; Otsuka, Eiichi; Nakachi, Sawako; Yamamoto, Hisashi; Kurosawa, Saiko; Tobinai, Kensei; Fukuda, Takahiro

2017-07-01

Adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma is a distinct type of peripheral T-cell lymphoma caused by human T-cell lymphotropic virus type I. Although allogeneic stem cell transplantation after chemotherapy is a recommended treatment option for patients with aggressive adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma, there is no consensus about indications for allogeneic stem cell transplantation because there is no established risk stratification system for transplant eligible patients. We conducted a nationwide survey of patients with aggressive adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma in order to construct a new, large database that includes 1,792 patients aged 70 years or younger with aggressive adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma who were diagnosed between 2000 and 2013 and received intensive first-line chemotherapy. We randomly divided patients into two groups (training and validation sets). Acute type, poor performance status, high soluble interleukin-2 receptor levels (> 5,000 U/mL), high adjusted calcium levels (≥ 12 mg/dL), and high C-reactive protein levels (≥ 2.5 mg/dL) were independent adverse prognostic factors used in the training set. We used these five variables to divide patients into three risk groups. In the validation set, median overall survival for the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups was 626 days, 322 days, and 197 days, respectively. In the intermediate- and high-risk groups, transplanted recipients had significantly better overall survival than non-transplanted patients. We developed a promising new risk stratification system to identify patients aged 70 years or younger with aggressive adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma who may benefit from upfront allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Prospective studies are warranted to confirm the benefit of this treatment strategy. Copyright© 2017 Ferrata Storti Foundation.

The Comparison of Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT andIntensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT for prostate cancer byNCCN risk groups

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anthony Ricco

2016-08-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The primary objective of this study is to compare freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF between SBRT and IMRT for patients with organ confined prostate cancer treated between 2007 through 2012 utilizing the 2015 National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN risk stratification guidelines. A secondary objective is to compare our updated toxicity at last follow up compared to pretreatment with respect to bowel, bladder, sexual functioning, and need for invasive procedures between the two groups.METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 270 consecutive men treated with either SBRT (n=150 or IMRT (120 at a community hospital with two distinct radiation departments and referral patterns. Charts were reviewed for pretreatment and treatment factors including race, age, clinical T stage, initial PSA, Gleason score, use of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT, treatment with SBRT vs. IMRT as well as stratification by 2015 NCCN guidelines. Kaplan Meier (KM methodology was used to estimate freedom from biochemical failure, with statistical comparisons accomplished using log rank tests. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to establish independent factors prognostic of biochemical failure. Descriptive statistics were used to describe toxicity graded by a modified RTOG late radiation morbidity scoring system. RESULTS: Significant prognostic factors in univariate analysis for FFBF included NCCN risk groups (p=0.0032, grade (p=0.019, and PSA (p=0.008. There was no significant difference in FFBF between SBRT vs. IMRT (p=0.46 with 6 year actuarial FFBF of 91.9% for SBRT and 88.9% for IMRT. Multivariable analysis revealed only the NCCN risk stratification to be significant predictor for FFBF (p=0.04. 4 year actuarial FFBF by NCCN risk stratification was 100% very low risk, 100% low risk, 96.5% intermediate risk, 94.5% high risk, and 72.7% very high risk. There were no grade 3 gastrointestinal (GI or genitourinary (GU toxicities for either

Acute myeloid leukemia in the era of precision medicine: recent advances in diagnostic classification and risk stratification.

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Kansal, Rina

2016-03-01

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a genetically heterogeneous myeloid malignancy that occurs more commonly in adults, and has an increasing incidence, most likely due to increasing age. Precise diagnostic classification of AML requires clinical and pathologic information, the latter including morphologic, immunophenotypic, cytogenetic and molecular genetic analysis. Risk stratification in AML requires cytogenetics evaluation as the most important predictor, with genetic mutations providing additional necessary information. AML with normal cytogenetics comprises about 40%-50% of all AML, and has been intensively investigated. The currently used 2008 World Health Organization classification of hematopoietic neoplasms has been proposed to be updated in 2016, also to include an update on the classification of AML, due to the continuously increasing application of genomic techniques that have led to major advances in our knowledge of the pathogenesis of AML. The purpose of this review is to describe some of these recent major advances in the diagnostic classification and risk stratification of AML.

Acute myeloid leukemia in the era of precision medicine: recent advances in diagnostic classification and risk stratification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kansal, Rina

2016-01-01

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a genetically heterogeneous myeloid malignancy that occurs more commonly in adults, and has an increasing incidence, most likely due to increasing age. Precise diagnostic classification of AML requires clinical and pathologic information, the latter including morphologic, immunophenotypic, cytogenetic and molecular genetic analysis. Risk stratification in AML requires cytogenetics evaluation as the most important predictor, with genetic mutations providing additional necessary information. AML with normal cytogenetics comprises about 40%-50% of all AML, and has been intensively investigated. The currently used 2008 World Health Organization classification of hematopoietic neoplasms has been proposed to be updated in 2016, also to include an update on the classification of AML, due to the continuously increasing application of genomic techniques that have led to major advances in our knowledge of the pathogenesis of AML. The purpose of this review is to describe some of these recent major advances in the diagnostic classification and risk stratification of AML

Risk Stratification for Athletes and Adventurers in High-Altitude Environments: Recommendations for Preparticipation Evaluation.

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Campbell, Aaron D; McIntosh, Scott E; Nyberg, Andy; Powell, Amy P; Schoene, Robert B; Hackett, Peter

2015-12-01

High-altitude athletes and adventurers face a number of environmental and medical risks. Clinicians often advise participants or guiding agencies before or during these experiences. Preparticipation evaluation (PPE) has the potential to reduce risk of high-altitude illnesses in athletes and adventurers. Specific conditions susceptible to high-altitude exacerbation also important to evaluate include cardiovascular and lung diseases. Recommendations by which to counsel individuals before participation in altitude sports and adventures are few and of limited focus. We reviewed the literature, collected expert opinion, and augmented principles of a traditional sport PPE to accommodate the high-altitude wilderness athlete/adventurer. We present our findings with specific recommendations on risk stratification during a PPE for the high-altitude athlete/adventurer. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Cold stratification, but not stratification in salinity, enhances seedling ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Cold stratification, but not stratification in salinity, enhances seedling growth of wheat under salt treatment. L Wang, HL Wang, CH Yin, CY Tian. Abstract. Cold stratification was reported to release seed dormancy and enhance plant tolerance to salt stress. Experiments were conducted to test the hypothesis that cold ...

Electrophysiologic profile and results of invasive risk stratification in asymptomatic children and adolescents with the Wolff-Parkinson-White electrocardiographic pattern.

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Kubuš, Peter; Vít, Pavel; Gebauer, Roman A; Materna, Ondřej; Janoušek, Jan

2014-04-01

Data on the results and clinical effect of an invasive risk stratification strategy in asymptomatic young patients with the Wolff-Parkinson-White electrocardiographic pattern are scarce. Eighty-five consecutive patients agedWolff-Parkinson-White pattern and persistent preexcitation at maximum exercise undergoing invasive risk stratification were retrospectively studied. Adverse accessory pathway (AP) properties were defined according to currently consented criteria as any of the following: shortest preexcited RR interval during atrial fibrillation/rapid atrial pacing≤250 ms (or antegrade effective refractory period≤250 ms if shortest preexcited RR interval was not available) or inducible atrioventricular re-entrant tachycardia. Age at evaluation was median 14.9 years. Eighty-two patients had a structurally normal heart and 3 had hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. A single manifest AP was present in 80, 1 manifest and 1 concealed AP in 4, and 2 manifest APs in 1 patient. Adverse AP properties were present in 32 of 85 patients (37.6%) at baseline and in additional 16 of 44 (36.4%) after isoproterenol. Ablation was performed in 41 of these 48 patients. Ablation was deferred in the remaining 7 for pathway proximity to the atrioventricular node. In addition, 18 of the low-risk patients were ablated based on patient/parental decision. Adverse AP properties at baseline were exhibited by 37.6% of the evaluated patients with an asymptomatic Wolff-Parkinson-White preexcitation persisting at peak exercise. Isoproterenol challenge yielded additional 36.4% of those tested at higher risk. Ablation was performed in a total of 69.4% of patients subjected to invasive risk stratification.

Prognostic implications of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T assay in a real-world population with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome.

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Magnoni, Marco; Gallone, Guglielmo; Ceriotti, Ferruccio; Vergani, Vittoria; Giorgio, Daniela; Angeloni, Giulia; Maseri, Attilio; Cianflone, Domenico

2018-09-01

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hsTnT) was recently approved for clinical use by the Food and Drug Administration. The transition from contemporary to hsTnT assays requires a thorough understanding of the clinical differences between these assays. HsTnT may provide a more accurate prognostic stratification than contemporary cardiac troponin I (cTnI) in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS). HsTnT and cTnI were measured in 644 patients with CK-MB negative NSTE-ACS who were enrolled in the prospective multicenter SPAI (Stratificazione Prognostica dell'Angina Instabile) study. Patients were stratified at the 99th percentile reference limit for each assay. The primary endpoint was cardiovascular death (CVD) or non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI); the secondary endpoint was the occurrence of unstable angina (UA). Follow-up lasted 180 days. Patients with hsTnT ≥99th percentile were at higher risk of CVD/MI (30-day: 5.9% vs 0.8%, p  = 0.001; 180-day: 11.1% vs 4.7%, p  = 0.004), also after adjusting for TIMI Risk Score. No significant difference in CVD/MI at 180-day was found between hsTnT-positive/cTnI-negative and hsTnT-negative/cTnI-negative patients (adjHR 1.61, 95% CI 0.74-3.49, p  = 0.232). Occurrence of UA was not differently distributed between hsTnT groups dichotomized at the 99th percentile (12.4% vs 12.5% p  = 0.54). Our investigation on a real-world NSTE-ACS population showed good prognostic performance of hsTnT in the risk stratification of the hard endpoint, but did not demonstrate the improved prognostic ability of hsTnT over contemporary cTn. Neither troponin assay predicted the recurrence of UA, suggesting the acute rise of cardiac troponin as a marker of severity, but not the occurrence of future coronary instability.

Prognostic value of biological markers in myocardial infarction patients.

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Berezin, Alexander E; Samura, Tatiana A

2013-04-01

The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of matrix metalloproteinase-3 and -9, and NT-pro-natriuretic peptide for fatal and nonfatal complications in Q-wave myocardial infarction patients in the acute and postinfarction periods. 85 men and women with documented Q-wave myocardial infarction were observed for 1 year after hospitalization. Clinical endpoints were identified through the hospital patient-tracking system, with a review of medical records for each recorded endpoint. Left ventricular ejection fraction and wall motion index were calculated. Measurements of matrix metalloproteinases and NT-pro-natriuretic peptide were performed by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. A cutoff value of 9.7 ng·mL(-1) for matrix metalloproteinase-3 showed the best discriminatory power (sensitivity = 77.8%, specificity = 90.8%). The optimal cutoff value of matrix metalloproteinase-9 was 18.1 ng·mL(-1) (sensitivity, 70.5%; specificity, 75%), and the cutoff for NT-pro-natriuretic peptide was 885 pmol·L(-1) (sensitivity, 58%; specificity, 68.6%). Matrix metalloproteinase-3 and -9 were strongly related with a positive prognostic value of 70% (sensitivity and specificity, 84% and 82%, respectively). These data may be helpful for further stratification of patients into cardiovascular mortality risk groups.

Prognostic validation of the body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity (BODE) index in inoperable non-small-cell lung cancer.

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Denehy, Linda; Hornsby, Whitney E; Herndon, James E; Thomas, Samantha; Ready, Neal E; Granger, Catherine L; Valera, Lauren; Kenjale, Aarti A; Eves, Neil D; Jones, Lee W

2013-12-01

To investigate the prognostic utility of the body mass index, severity of airflow obstruction, measures of exertional dyspnea, and exercise capacity (BODE) index in patients with inoperable non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). One hundred consecutive patients with inoperable NSCLC and performance status 0 to 3 completed pulmonary function testing, the modified Medical Research Council dyspnea scale, a 6-minute walk test, and body mass index-the multidimensional 10-point BODE index. Cox proportional models were used to estimate the risk of all-cause mortality according to the BODE index with or without adjustment for traditional prognostic factors. Median follow-up was 31.5 months; 61 deaths (61%) were reported during this period. There was a significant univariate association between the BODE index score and mortality (adjusted p(trend) = 0.027). Compared with patients with a BODE index of 0, the adjusted hazard ratio for risk of death was 1.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74-2.55) for a BODE index of 1, 1.22 (95% CI, 0.45-3.25) for a BODE index of 2, and 2.44 (95% CI, 1.19-4.99) for a BODE index more than 2. The BODE index provided incremental prognostic information beyond that provided traditional markers of prognosis (adjusted p(trend) = 0.051). Every one-point increase in the BODE index, the risk of death increased by 25% (hazard ratio = 1.25; 95% CI, 1.27-4.64). The BODE index is a strong independent predictor of survival in inoperable NSCLC beyond traditional risk factors. Use of this multidimensional tool may improve risk stratification and prognostication in NSCLC.

Risk stratification and detection of new colorectal neoplasms after colorectal cancer screening with faecal occult blood test

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerrum, Andreas; Milter, Maya Christel; Andersen, Ole

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist on adenoma surveillance as recommended in the European guidelines for quality assurance in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and diagnosis after faecal occult blood test (FOBT) screening. OBJECTIVE: To assess the European guidelines for adenoma surveillance after CRC...... of CRC was higher in risk group C than A (RR 5.20, 95% confidence interval: 0.63-42.58), but not statistically significant. In risk group C, half of new advanced adenomas were detected within the first year and four of nine CRC were detected within 3 years. CONCLUSION: Risk stratification of adenoma...

Relapse risk assessment of transplantation for patients with chronic myeloid leukaemia

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2003-01-01

Objective To analyse the risk factors of relapse before bone marrow transplantation (BMT) and to present the prognostic information as good as possible.Methods A total of 3142 patients, who underwent the allogeneic blood or bone marrow tran splantation between 1989 and 1997 and were documented in the European Group for Blood and Marrow transplantation (EBMT), were included. Six possible risk factors including type of donor, stage of disease, age, gender, donor@#-recipient sex co mbination and the waiting time from diagnosis to transplation of relapse were co nsidered. The time to relapse was analysed by Kaplan-Meier curves and Coxregre ssion with stratification on prognostic factors that did not satisfy the Proport ional Hazard Assumption.Results An amount of 447 patients relapsed out of all 3142 patients. The relapse rate was 14.2%. Type of donor and stage of disease showed a clear prognostic effect, but failed the proportional hazard assumption. Therefore, the data were stratified on the combination of type of donor and stage of disease. Within these strata a n additional significant effect of age could be observed. Relative risk of age ≥40 vs age <40 was 1.32 (95% confidence interval 1.09-1.59). The prognostic model is summarized graphically.Conclusions The combination of type of donor, stage of disease and age of recipient at transplantation are important prognostic factors for relapse after BMT.

Application of Multivariate Probabilistic (Bayesian) Networks to Substance Use Disorder Risk Stratification and Cost Estimation

OpenAIRE

Weinstein, Lawrence; Radano, Todd A; Jack, Timothy; Kalina, Philip; Eberhardt, John S

2009-01-01

Introduction: This paper explores the use of machine learning and Bayesian classification models to develop broadly applicable risk stratification models to guide disease management of health plan enrollees with substance use disorder (SUD). While the high costs and morbidities associated with SUD are understood by payers, who manage it through utilization review, acute interventions, coverage and cost limitations, and disease management, the literature shows mixed results for these modalitie...

Quantifying the predictive accuracy of time-to-event models in the presence of competing risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Schoop, Rotraut; Beyersmann, Jan; Schumacher, Martin; Binder, Harald

2011-02-01

Prognostic models for time-to-event data play a prominent role in therapy assignment, risk stratification and inter-hospital quality assurance. The assessment of their prognostic value is vital not only for responsible resource allocation, but also for their widespread acceptance. The additional presence of competing risks to the event of interest requires proper handling not only on the model building side, but also during assessment. Research into methods for the evaluation of the prognostic potential of models accounting for competing risks is still needed, as most proposed methods measure either their discrimination or calibration, but do not examine both simultaneously. We adapt the prediction error proposal of Graf et al. (Statistics in Medicine 1999, 18, 2529–2545) and Gerds and Schumacher (Biometrical Journal 2006, 48, 1029–1040) to handle models with competing risks, i.e. more than one possible event type, and introduce a consistent estimator. A simulation study investigating the behaviour of the estimator in small sample size situations and for different levels of censoring together with a real data application follows.

Treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma with intrahepatic yttrium 90 microspheres: a risk-stratification analysis.

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Goin, James E; Salem, Riad; Carr, Brian I; Dancey, Janet E; Soulen, Michael C; Geschwind, Jean-Francois H; Goin, Kathleen; Van Buskirk, Mark; Thurston, Kenneth

2005-02-01

To present the findings of a risk-stratification survival analysis with use of data collected on a heterogeneous group of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with TheraSphere. Baseline, treatment, and follow-up data were collected and analyzed from 121 TheraSphere-treated patients. Survival analyses were performed to identify those variables most strongly associated with 3-month mortality. The presence of any of the identified risk variables resulted in the assignment of a patient to the high-risk category. Five liver reserve and two non-liver reserve variables were identified and used to stratify patients into low- or high-risk groups. Sixteen of the 33 patients assigned to the high-risk group (49%) did not survive the first 3 months after treatment, compared with six of the 88 patients assigned to the low-risk group (7%; Fisher exact test, P TheraSpheres should be evaluated for the presence of the risk variables described herein. The absence of these variables is predictive of improved survival (median of 466 days) compared with patients at high risk (median of 108 days).

Application of cardiovascular disease risk prediction models and the relevance of novel biomarkers to risk stratification in Asian Indians.

Science.gov (United States)

Kanjilal, S; Rao, V S; Mukherjee, M; Natesha, B K; Renuka, K S; Sibi, K; Iyengar, S S; Kakkar, Vijay V

2008-01-01

The increasing pressure on health resources has led to the emergence of risk assessment as an essential tool in the management of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Concern exists regarding the validity of their generalization to all populations. Existing risk scoring models do not incorporate emerging 'novel' risk factors. In this context, the aim of the study was to examine the relevance of British, European, and Framingham predictive CVD risk scores to the asymptomatic high risk Indian population. Blood samples drawn from the participants were analyzed for various 'traditional' and 'novel' biomarkers, and their CVD risk factor profiling was also done. The Framingham model defined only 5% of the study cohort to be at high risk, which appears to be an underestimation of CVD risk in this genetically predisposed population. These subjects at high risk had significantly elevated levels of lipid, pro-inflammatory, pro-thrombotic, and serological markers. It is more relevant to develop risk predictive scores for application to the Indian population. This study substantiates the argument that alternative approaches to risk stratification are required in order to make them more adaptable and applicable to different populations with varying risk factor and disease patterns.

Peri-procedural risk stratification and management of patients with Williams syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Collins Ii, R Thomas; Collins, Margaret G; Schmitz, Michael L; Hamrick, Justin T

2017-03-01

Williams syndrome (WS) is a congenital, multisystem disorder affecting the cardiovascular, connective tissue, and central nervous systems in 1 in 10 000 live births. Cardiovascular involvement is the most common cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with WS, and noninvasive and invasive procedures are common. Sudden cardiovascular collapse in patients with WS is a well-known phenomenon, especially in the peri-procedural period. Detailed guidelines for peri-procedural management of patients with WS are limited. The goal of this review is to provide thoughtful, safe and effective management strategies for the peri-procedural care of patients with WS with careful consideration of hemodynamic impacts of anesthetic strategies. In addition, an expanded risk stratification system for anesthetic administration is provided. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk stratification of gallbladder polyps (1-2 cm) for surgical intervention with 18F-FDG PET/CT.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jaehoon; Yun, Mijin; Kim, Kyoung-Sik; Lee, Jong-Doo; Kim, Chun K

2012-03-01

We assessed the value of (18)F-FDG uptake in the gallbladder polyp (GP) in risk stratification for surgical intervention and the optimal cutoff level of the parameters derived from GP (18)F-FDG uptake for differentiating malignant from benign etiologies in a select, homogeneous group of patients with 1- to 2-cm GPs. Fifty patients with 1- to 2-cm GPs incidentally found on the CT portion of PET/CT were retrospectively analyzed. All patients had histologic diagnoses. GP (18)F-FDG activity was visually scored positive (≥liver) or negative (L ratio) were also measured. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the utility of patient and clinical variables--that is, sex, age, gallstone, polyp size, and three (18)F-FDG-related parameters in risk stratification. Twenty GPs were classified as malignant and 30 as benign. Multivariate analyses showed that the age and all parameters (visual criteria, SUVgp, and GP/L) related to (18)F-FDG uptake were significant risk factors, with the GP/L being the most significant. The sex, size of GPs, and presence of concurrent gallstones were found to be insignificant. (18)F-FDG uptake in a GP is a strong risk factor that can be used to determine the necessity of surgical intervention more effectively than other known risk factors. However, all criteria derived from (18)F-FDG uptake presented in this series may be applicable to the assessment of 1- to 2-cm GPs.

Prognostic and Added Value of Two-Dimensional Global Longitudinal Strain for Prediction of Survival in Patients with Light Chain Amyloidosis Undergoing Autologous Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Pun, Shawn C; Landau, Heather J; Riedel, Elyn R; Jordan, Jonathan; Yu, Anthony F; Hassoun, Hani; Chen, Carol L; Steingart, Richard M; Liu, Jennifer E

2018-01-01

Autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is a first-line therapy for prolonging survival in patients with light-chain (AL) amyloidosis. Cardiac involvement is the most important determinant of survival. However, patients with advanced cardiac involvement have often been excluded from HCT because of high risk for transplantation-related mortality and poor overall survival. Whether baseline left ventricular global longitudinal strain (GLS) can provide additional risk stratification and predict survival after HCT in this high-risk population remains unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic implication of baseline GLS and the added value of GLS beyond circulating cardiac biomarkers for risk stratification in patients with AL amyloidosis undergoing HCT. Eighty-two patients with newly diagnosed AL amyloidosis who underwent upfront HCT between January 2007 and April 2014 were included in the study. Clinical, echocardiographic, and serum cardiac biomarker data were collected at baseline and 12 months following HCT. GLS measurements were performed using a vendor-independent offline system. The median follow-up time for survivors was 58 months. Sixty-four percent of patients were in biomarker-based Mayo stage II or III. GLS, brain natriuretic peptide, troponin, and mitral E/A ratio were identified as the strongest predictors of survival (P value that best discriminated survivors from nonsurvivors, and the application of this cutoff value provided further mortality risk stratification within each Mayo stage. GLS is a strong predictor of survival in patients with AL amyloidosis undergoing HCT, potentially providing incremental value over serum cardiac biomarkers for risk stratification. GLS should be considered as a standard parameter along with serum cardiac biomarkers when evaluating eligibility for HCT or other investigational therapies. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Echocardiography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic Significance of Remote Myocardium Alterations Assessed by Quantitative Noncontrast T1 Mapping in ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction.

Science.gov (United States)

Reinstadler, Sebastian J; Stiermaier, Thomas; Liebetrau, Johanna; Fuernau, Georg; Eitel, Charlotte; de Waha, Suzanne; Desch, Steffen; Reil, Jan-Christian; Pöss, Janine; Metzler, Bernhard; Lücke, Christian; Gutberlet, Matthias; Schuler, Gerhard; Thiele, Holger; Eitel, Ingo

2018-03-01

This study assessed the prognostic significance of remote zone native T1 alterations for the prediction of clinical events in a population with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) who were treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) and compared it with conventional markers of infarct severity. The exact role and incremental prognostic relevance of remote myocardium native T1 mapping alterations assessed by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) after STEMI remains unclear. We included 255 consecutive patients with STEMI who were reperfused within 12 h after symptom onset. CMR core laboratory analysis was performed to assess left ventricular (LV) function, standard infarct characteristics, and native T1 values of the remote, noninfarcted myocardium. The primary endpoint was a composite of death, reinfarction, and new congestive heart failure within 6 months (major adverse cardiac events [MACE]). Patients with increased remote zone native T1 values (>1,129 ms) had significantly larger infarcts (p = 0.012), less myocardial salvage (p = 0.002), and more pronounced LV dysfunction (p = 0.011). In multivariable analysis, remote zone native T1 was independently associated with MACE after adjusting for clinical risk factors (p = 0.001) or other CMR variables (p = 0.007). In C-statistics, native T1 of remote myocardium provided incremental prognostic information beyond clinical risk factors, LV ejection fraction, and other markers of infarct severity (all p remote zone native T1 to a model of prognostic CMR parameters (ejection fraction, infarct size, and myocardial salvage index) led to net reclassification improvement of 0.82 (95% confidence interval: 0.46 to 1.17; p remote zone alterations by quantitative noncontrast T1 mapping provided independent and incremental prognostic information in addition to clinical risk factors and traditional CMR outcome markers. Remote zone alterations may thus represent a novel therapeutic target and a

Evaluation of clinical, laboratory and morphologic prognostic factors in colon cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Grande, Michele; Milito, Giovanni; Attinà, Grazia Maria; Cadeddu, Federica; Muzi, Marco Gallinella; Nigro, Casimiro; Rulli, Francesco; Farinon, Attilio Maria

2008-01-01

Background The long-term prognosis of patients with colon cancer is dependent on many factors. To investigate the influence of a series of clinical, laboratory and morphological variables on prognosis of colon carcinoma we conducted a retrospective analysis of our data. Methods Ninety-two patients with colon cancer, who underwent surgical resection between January 1999 and December 2001, were analyzed. On survival analysis, demographics, clinical, laboratory and pathomorphological parameters were tested for their potential prognostic value. Furthermore, univariate and multivariate analysis of the above mentioned data were performed considering the depth of tumour invasion into the bowel wall as independent variable. Results On survival analysis we found that depth of tumour invasion (P anismus, hematocrit, WBC count, fibrinogen value and CT scanning were significantly related to the degree of mural invasion of the cancer. On the multivariate analysis, fibrinogen value was the most statistically significant variable (P < 0.001) with the highest F-ratio (F-ratio 5.86). Finally, in the present study, the tumour site was significantly related neither to the survival nor to the mural invasion of the tumour. Conclusion The various clinical, laboratory and patho-morphological parameters showed different prognostic value for colon carcinoma. In the future, preoperative prognostic markers will probably gain relevance in order to make a proper choice between surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Nevertheless, current data do not provide sufficient evidence for preoperative stratification of high and low risk patients. Further assessments in prospective large studies are warranted. PMID:18778464

Risk stratification and rapid geriatric screening in an emergency department - a quasi-randomised controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Foo, Chik Loon; Siu, Vivan Wing Yin; Ang, Hou; Phuah, Madeline Wei Ling; Ooi, Chee Kheong

2014-08-30

To determine if risk stratification followed by rapid geriatric screening in an emergency department (ED) reduced functional decline, ED reattendance and hospitalisation. This was a quasi-randomised controlled trial. Patients were randomised by the last digit of their national registration identity card (NRIC). Odd number controls received standard ED care; even number patients received geriatric screening, followed by intervention and/or onward referrals. Patients were followed up for 12 months. There were 500 and 280 patients in the control and intervention groups. The intervention group had higher Triage Risk Screening Tool (TRST) scores (34.3% vs 25.4% TRST ≥3, p = 0.01) and lower baseline Instrumental Activity of Daily Living (IADL) scores (22.84 vs 24.18, p fall risk (65.0%), vision (61.4%), and footwear (58.2%). 28.2% were referred to a geriatric clinic and 11.8% were admitted. 425 (85.0%) controls and 234 (83.6%) in the intervention group completed their follow-up. After adjusting for TRST and baseline IADL, the intervention group had significant preservation in function (Basic ADL -0.99 vs -0.24, p geriatric screening at the request of the ED doctor. A major limitation was that a large proportion of patients who were randomized to the intervention group either refused (18.8%) or left the ED before being approached (32.0%). These two groups were not followed up, and hence were excluded in our analysis. Risk stratification and focused geriatric screening in ED resulted in significant preservation of patients' function at 12 months. National Healthcare Group (NHG) Domain Specific Review Board (DSRB) C/09/023. Registered 5th March 2009.

Combining standardized uptake value of FDG-PET and apparent diffusion coefficient of DW-MRI improves risk stratification in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Preda, Lorenzo; Conte, Giorgio; Bonello, Luke; Giannitto, Caterina; Travaini, Laura L; Raimondi, Sara; Summers, Paul E; Mohssen, Ansarin; Alterio, Daniela; Cossu Rocca, Maria; Grana, Chiara; Ruju, Francesca; Bellomi, Massimo

2016-12-01

To assess the independent prognostic value of standardized uptake value (SUV) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), separately and combined, in order to evaluate if the combination of these two variables allows further prognostic stratification of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC). Pretreatment SUV and ADC were calculated in 57 patients with HNSCC. Mean follow-up was 21.3 months. Semiquantitative analysis of primary tumours was performed using SUV maxT/B , ADC mean , ADC min and ADC max . The prognostic value of SUV maxT/B , ADC mean , ADC min and ADC max in predicting disease-free survival (DFS) was evaluated with log-rank test and Cox regression models. Patients with SUV maxT/B ≥5.75 had an overall worse prognosis (p = 0.003). After adjusting for lymph node status and diameter, SUV maxT/B and ADC min were both significant predictors of DFS with hazard ratio (HR) = 10.37 (95 % CI 1.22-87.95) and 3.26 (95 % CI 1.20-8.85) for SUV maxT/B ≥5.75 and ADC min ≥0.58 × 10 -3 mm 2 /s, respectively. When the analysis was restricted to subjects with SUV maxT/B ≥5.75, high ADC min significantly predicted a worse prognosis, with adjusted HR = 3.11 (95 % CI 1.13-8.55). The combination of SUV maxT/B and ADC min improves the prognostic role of the two separate parameters; patients with high SUV maxT/B and high ADC min are associated with a poor prognosis. • High SUV maxT/B is a poor prognostic factor in HNSCC • High ADC min is a poor prognostic factor in HNSCC • In patients with high SUV maxT/B , high ADC min identified those with worse prognosis.

Sudden cardiac arrest in a young patient with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and zero canonical risk factors: the inherent limitations of risk stratification in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kohorst, John J; Bos, J Martijn; Hagler, Donald J; Ackerman, Michael J

2014-01-01

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is the most common heritable cardiovascular disease and a common cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in young adolescents and athletes. Clinical risk stratification for SCD is predicated on the presence of established risk factors; however, this assessment is far from perfect. Herein, we present a 16-year-old male who was resuscitated successfully from his sentinel event of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Prior to this event, he was asymptomatic and lacked all traditional SCD-predisposing risk factors for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modified risk stratification grouping using standard clinical and biopsy information for patients undergoing radical prostatectomy: Results from SEARCH.

Science.gov (United States)

Zumsteg, Zachary S; Chen, Zinan; Howard, Lauren E; Amling, Christopher L; Aronson, William J; Cooperberg, Matthew R; Kane, Christopher J; Terris, Martha K; Spratt, Daniel E; Sandler, Howard M; Freedland, Stephen J

2017-12-01

Prostate cancer is a heterogeneous disease, and risk stratification systems have been proposed to guide treatment decisions. However, significant heterogeneity remains for those with unfavorable-risk disease. This study included 3335 patients undergoing radical prostatectomy without adjuvant radiotherapy in the SEARCH database. High-risk patients were dichotomized into standard and very high-risk (VHR) groups based on primary Gleason pattern, percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPBC), number of NCCN high-risk factors, and stage T3b-T4 disease. Similarly, intermediate-risk prostate cancer was separated into favorable and unfavorable groups based on primary Gleason pattern, PPBC, and number of NCCN intermediate-risk factors. Median follow-up was 78 months. Patients with VHR prostate cancer had significantly worse PSA relapse-free survival (PSA-RFS, P < 0.001), distant metastasis (DM, P = 0.004), and prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM, P = 0.015) in comparison to standard high-risk (SHR) patients in multivariable analyses. By contrast, there was no significant difference in PSA-RFS, DM, or PCSM between SHR and unfavorable intermediate-risk (UIR) patients. Therefore, we propose a novel risk stratification system: Group 1 (low-risk), Group 2 (favorable intermediate-risk), Group 3 (UIR and SHR), and Group 4 (VHR). The c-index of this new grouping was 0.683 for PSA-RFS and 0.800 for metastases, compared to NCCN-risk groups which yield 0.666 for PSA-RFS and 0.764 for metastases. Patients classified as VHR have markedly increased rates of PSA relapse, DM, and PCSM in comparison to SHR patients, whereas UIR and SHR patients have similar prognosis. Novel therapeutic strategies are needed for patients with VHR, likely involving multimodality therapy. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Proposal of a clinical typing system and generation of a prognostic model in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma from Southern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Peng; Chen, Cui; Chen, Xin-Lin; Cheng, Yi-Kan; Zeng, Lei; Zeng, Zhi-Jian; Liu, Li-Zhi; Su, Yong; Gu, Mo-Fa

2014-01-01

To propose a novel clinical typing classification focusing on the distinct progression patterns of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), to supplement our knowledge of the clinical-biological behavior, to provide useful knowledge for treatment planning, and to contribute to basic research in NPC. 632 consecutive patients were retrospectively reviewed and analyzed according to the novel typing system. We considered that NPC can be divided into 5 types as follows: limited (L), ascending (A), descending (D) ascending- descending (mixed) (AD), and distant metastasis types (M). The distribution of these clinical types, their association with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) serology and prognostic value were explored. 55 (8.70%), 59 (9.34%), 177 (28.01%), 321 (50.79%) and 20 (3.16%) patients were classified as Type L, A, D, AD and M, respectively. EBV (VCA)-IgA titers, EBV early antigen (EA)-IgA serum titers, and capsid antigen lg(EBV DNA) were positively associated with the clinical typing (pTypes L, A, D, AD and M were 100, 100, 95.10, 88.20 and 59.30%, respectively (ptype, which were independent predictors of OS (multivariate Cox proportional model). The prognostic model stratified patients into 4 risk subgroups. The 3-year OS rates of the low, intermediate, high and extremely high risk groups were 99.5, 90.0, 85.5 and 53.2%, respectively (ptyping system and prognostic model can supplement TNM classification, and may help design novel treatment strategies, evaluate risk stratification and investigate the varied biological characteristics of NPC.

Blood group antigen A type 3 expression is a favorable prognostic factor in advanced NSCLC.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, L H; Kuemmel, A; Schliemann, C; Schulze, A; Humberg, J; Mohr, M; Görlich, D; Hartmann, W; Bröckling, S; Marra, A; Hillejan, L; Goletz, S; Karsten, U; Berdel, W E; Spieker, T; Wiewrodt, R

2016-02-01

Several blood group-related carbohydrate antigens are prognosis-relevant markers of tumor tissues. A type 3 (repetitive A) is a blood group antigen specific for A1 erythrocytes. Its potential expression in tumor tissues has so far not been examined. We have evaluated its expression in normal lung and in lung cancer using a novel antibody (A69-A/E8). For comparison an anti-A antibody specific to A types 1 and 2 was used, because its expression on lung cancer tissue has been previously reported to be of prognostic relevance. Resected tissue samples of 398 NSCLC patients were analyzed in immunohistochemistry using tissue microarrays. Expression of A type 3 was not observed in non-malignant lung tissues. A type 3 was expressed on tumor cells of around half of NSCLC patients of blood group A1 (ptype 1/2 antigen was observed (p=0.562), the expression of A type 3 by tumor cells indicated a highly significant favorable prognosis among advanced NSCLC patients (p=0.011) and in NSCLC patients with lymphatic spread (p=0.014). Univariate prognostic results were confirmed in a Cox proportional hazards model. In this study we present for the first time prognostic data for A type 3 antigen expression in lung cancer patients. Prospective studies should be performed to confirm the prognostic value of A type 3 expression for an improved risk stratification in NSCLC patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A clinical-molecular prognostic model to predict survival in patients with post polycythemia vera and post essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Passamonti, F; Giorgino, T; Mora, B; Guglielmelli, P; Rumi, E; Maffioli, M; Rambaldi, A; Caramella, M; Komrokji, R; Gotlib, J; Kiladjian, J J; Cervantes, F; Devos, T; Palandri, F; De Stefano, V; Ruggeri, M; Silver, R T; Benevolo, G; Albano, F; Caramazza, D; Merli, M; Pietra, D; Casalone, R; Rotunno, G; Barbui, T; Cazzola, M; Vannucchi, A M

2017-12-01

Polycythemia vera (PV) and essential thrombocythemia (ET) are myeloproliferative neoplasms with variable risk of evolution into post-PV and post-ET myelofibrosis, from now on referred to as secondary myelofibrosis (SMF). No specific tools have been defined for risk stratification in SMF. To develop a prognostic model for predicting survival, we studied 685 JAK2, CALR, and MPL annotated patients with SMF. Median survival of the whole cohort was 9.3 years (95% CI: 8-not reached-NR-). Through penalized Cox regressions we identified negative predictors of survival and according to beta risk coefficients we assigned 2 points to hemoglobin level <11 g/dl, to circulating blasts ⩾3%, and to CALR-unmutated genotype, 1 point to platelet count <150 × 10 9 /l and to constitutional symptoms, and 0.15 points to any year of age. Myelofibrosis Secondary to PV and ET-Prognostic Model (MYSEC-PM) allocated SMF patients into four risk categories with different survival (P<0.0001): low (median survival NR; 133 patients), intermediate-1 (9.3 years, 95% CI: 8.1-NR; 245 patients), intermediate-2 (4.4 years, 95% CI: 3.2-7.9; 126 patients), and high risk (2 years, 95% CI: 1.7-3.9; 75 patients). Finally, we found that the MYSEC-PM represents the most appropriate tool for SMF decision-making to be used in clinical and trial settings.

Customized oligonucleotide microarray gene expression-based classification of neuroblastoma patients outperforms current clinical risk stratification.

Science.gov (United States)

Oberthuer, André; Berthold, Frank; Warnat, Patrick; Hero, Barbara; Kahlert, Yvonne; Spitz, Rüdiger; Ernestus, Karen; König, Rainer; Haas, Stefan; Eils, Roland; Schwab, Manfred; Brors, Benedikt; Westermann, Frank; Fischer, Matthias

2006-11-01

To develop a gene expression-based classifier for neuroblastoma patients that reliably predicts courses of the disease. Two hundred fifty-one neuroblastoma specimens were analyzed using a customized oligonucleotide microarray comprising 10,163 probes for transcripts with differential expression in clinical subgroups of the disease. Subsequently, the prediction analysis for microarrays (PAM) was applied to a first set of patients with maximally divergent clinical courses (n = 77). The classification accuracy was estimated by a complete 10-times-repeated 10-fold cross validation, and a 144-gene predictor was constructed from this set. This classifier's predictive power was evaluated in an independent second set (n = 174) by comparing results of the gene expression-based classification with those of risk stratification systems of current trials from Germany, Japan, and the United States. The first set of patients was accurately predicted by PAM (cross-validated accuracy, 99%). Within the second set, the PAM classifier significantly separated cohorts with distinct courses (3-year event-free survival [EFS] 0.86 +/- 0.03 [favorable; n = 115] v 0.52 +/- 0.07 [unfavorable; n = 59] and 3-year overall survival 0.99 +/- 0.01 v 0.84 +/- 0.05; both P model, the PAM predictor classified patients of the second set more accurately than risk stratification of current trials from Germany, Japan, and the United States (P < .001; hazard ratio, 4.756 [95% CI, 2.544 to 8.893]). Integration of gene expression-based class prediction of neuroblastoma patients may improve risk estimation of current neuroblastoma trials.

Short- and Long-Term Prognostic Utility of the HEART Score in Patients Evaluated in the Emergency Department for Possible Acute Coronary Syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, Tarun; Nowak, Richard; Hudson, Michael; Frisoli, Tiberio; Jacobsen, Gordon; McCord, James

2016-06-01

The HEART score is a risk-stratification tool that was developed and validated for patients evaluated for possible acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in the emergency department (ED). We sought to determine the short-term and long-term prognostic utility of the HEART score. A retrospective single-center analysis of 947 patients evaluated for possible ACS in the ED in 1999 was conducted. Patients were followed for major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) at 30 days: death, acute myocardial infarction, or revascularization procedure. All-cause mortality was assessed at 5 years. The HEART score was compared with the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score. At 30 days, 14% (135/947) of patients had an MACE: 48 deaths (5%), 84 acute myocardial infarctions (9%), and 48 (5%) revascularization procedures. The MACE rate in patients with HEART score ≤3 was 0.6% (1/175) involving a revascularization procedure, 9.5% (53/557) in patients with HEART score between 4 and 6, and 38% (81/215) with HEART score ≥7. The C-statistic for the HEART score was 0.82 and 0.68 for the TIMI score for predicting 30-day MACE (P < 0.05). Patients with HEART score ≤3 had lower 5-year mortality rate compared with those with TIMI score of 0 (10.6% vs. 20.5%, P = 0.02). The HEART score is a valuable risk-stratification tool in predicting not only short-term MACE but also long-term mortality in patients evaluated for possible ACS in the ED. The HEART score had a superior prognostic value compared with the TIMI score.

Cold stratification, but not stratification in salinity, enhances seedling ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

use

2011-10-26

Oct 26, 2011 ... Cold stratification was reported to release seed dormancy and enhance plant tolerance to salt stress. ... Key words: Cold stratification, salt stress, seedling emergence, ... methods used to cope with salinity, seed pre-sowing.

Development and External Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram for Metastatic Uveal Melanoma

Science.gov (United States)

Valpione, Sara; Moser, Justin C.; Parrozzani, Raffaele; Bazzi, Marco; Mansfield, Aaron S.; Mocellin, Simone; Pigozzo, Jacopo; Midena, Edoardo; Markovic, Svetomir N.; Aliberti, Camillo; Campana, Luca G.; Chiarion-Sileni, Vanna

2015-01-01

Background Approximately 50% of patients with uveal melanoma (UM) will develop metastatic disease, usually involving the liver. The outcome of metastatic UM (mUM) is generally poor and no standard therapy has been established. Additionally, clinicians lack a validated prognostic tool to evaluate these patients. The aim of this work was to develop a reliable prognostic nomogram for clinicians. Patients and Methods Two cohorts of mUM patients, from Veneto Oncology Institute (IOV) (N=152) and Mayo Clinic (MC) (N=102), were analyzed to develop and externally validate, a prognostic nomogram. Results The median survival of mUM was 17.2 months in the IOV cohort and 19.7 in the MC cohort. Percentage of liver involvement (HR 1.6), elevated levels of serum LDH (HR 1.6), and a WHO performance status=1 (HR 1.5) or 2–3 (HR 4.6) were associated with worse prognosis. Longer disease-free interval from diagnosis of UM to that of mUM conferred a survival advantage (HR 0.9). The nomogram had a concordance probability of 0.75 (SE .006) in the development dataset (IOV), and 0.80 (SE .009) in the external validation (MC). Nomogram predictions were well calibrated. Conclusions The nomogram, which includes percentage of liver involvement, LDH levels, WHO performance status and disease free-interval accurately predicts the prognosis of mUM and could be useful for decision-making and risk stratification for clinical trials. PMID:25780931

Development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram for metastatic uveal melanoma.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sara Valpione

Full Text Available Approximately 50% of patients with uveal melanoma (UM will develop metastatic disease, usually involving the liver. The outcome of metastatic UM (mUM is generally poor and no standard therapy has been established. Additionally, clinicians lack a validated prognostic tool to evaluate these patients. The aim of this work was to develop a reliable prognostic nomogram for clinicians.Two cohorts of mUM patients, from Veneto Oncology Institute (IOV (N=152 and Mayo Clinic (MC (N=102, were analyzed to develop and externally validate, a prognostic nomogram.The median survival of mUM was 17.2 months in the IOV cohort and 19.7 in the MC cohort. Percentage of liver involvement (HR 1.6, elevated levels of serum LDH (HR 1.6, and a WHO performance status=1 (HR 1.5 or 2-3 (HR 4.6 were associated with worse prognosis. Longer disease-free interval from diagnosis of UM to that of mUM conferred a survival advantage (HR 0.9. The nomogram had a concordance probability of 0.75 (SE .006 in the development dataset (IOV, and 0.80 (SE .009 in the external validation (MC. Nomogram predictions were well calibrated.The nomogram, which includes percentage of liver involvement, LDH levels, WHO performance status and disease free-interval accurately predicts the prognosis of mUM and could be useful for decision-making and risk stratification for clinical trials.

Distinguishing prognostic and predictive biomarkers: An information theoretic approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Sechidis, Konstantinos; Papangelou, Konstantinos; Metcalfe, Paul D; Svensson, David; Weatherall, James; Brown, Gavin

2018-05-02

The identification of biomarkers to support decision-making is central to personalised medicine, in both clinical and research scenarios. The challenge can be seen in two halves: identifying predictive markers, which guide the development/use of tailored therapies; and identifying prognostic markers, which guide other aspects of care and clinical trial planning, i.e. prognostic markers can be considered as covariates for stratification. Mistakenly assuming a biomarker to be predictive, when it is in fact largely prognostic (and vice-versa) is highly undesirable, and can result in financial, ethical and personal consequences. We present a framework for data-driven ranking of biomarkers on their prognostic/predictive strength, using a novel information theoretic method. This approach provides a natural algebra to discuss and quantify the individual predictive and prognostic strength, in a self-consistent mathematical framework. Our contribution is a novel procedure, INFO+, which naturally distinguishes the prognostic vs predictive role of each biomarker and handles higher order interactions. In a comprehensive empirical evaluation INFO+ outperforms more complex methods, most notably when noise factors dominate, and biomarkers are likely to be falsely identified as predictive, when in fact they are just strongly prognostic. Furthermore, we show that our methods can be 1-3 orders of magnitude faster than competitors, making it useful for biomarker discovery in 'big data' scenarios. Finally, we apply our methods to identify predictive biomarkers on two real clinical trials, and introduce a new graphical representation that provides greater insight into the prognostic and predictive strength of each biomarker. R implementations of the suggested methods are available at https://github.com/sechidis. konstantinos.sechidis@manchester.ac.uk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Procalcitonin and albumin as prognostic biomarkers in elderly patients with a risk of bacterial infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Higashikawa, Toshihiro; Okuro, Masashi; Ishigami, Keiichirou; Mae, Kunihiro; Sangen, Ryusho; Mizuno, Takurou; Usuda, Daisuke; Saito, Atushi; Kasamaki, Yuji; Fukuda, Akihiro; Saito, Hitoshi; Morimoto, Shigeto; Kanda, Tsugiyasu

2018-01-01

Aim This study was performed to investigate serum procalcitonin (PCT) and albumin (Alb) as prognostic biomarkers in elderly patients at risk of bacterial infection. Methods Serum PCT was measured in 270 hospitalized patients (mean age, 77.4 years) with suspected bacterial infection. The PCT-negative (2.5 g/dL), no significant difference in survival was observed between the PCT-positive and -negative groups. However, within the Alb-negative group (≤2.5 g/dL), the survival rate was significantly lower in the PCT-positive than -negative group. PCT was strongly associated with CRP and Alb, and having both PCT positivity and Alb negativity was a prognostic factor for elderly people at risk of bacterial infection. Conclusions Combined measurement of PCT with Alb is expected to be a valuable tool to assess prognosis in elderly people at risk of bacterial infection.

Quantitative stratification of diffuse parenchymal lung diseases.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sushravya Raghunath

Full Text Available Diffuse parenchymal lung diseases (DPLDs are characterized by widespread pathological changes within the pulmonary tissue that impair the elasticity and gas exchange properties of the lungs. Clinical-radiological diagnosis of these diseases remains challenging and their clinical course is characterized by variable disease progression. These challenges have hindered the introduction of robust objective biomarkers for patient-specific prediction based on specific phenotypes in clinical practice for patients with DPLD. Therefore, strategies facilitating individualized clinical management, staging and identification of specific phenotypes linked to clinical disease outcomes or therapeutic responses are urgently needed. A classification schema consistently reflecting the radiological, clinical (lung function and clinical outcomes and pathological features of a disease represents a critical need in modern pulmonary medicine. Herein, we report a quantitative stratification paradigm to identify subsets of DPLD patients with characteristic radiologic patterns in an unsupervised manner and demonstrate significant correlation of these self-organized disease groups with clinically accepted surrogate endpoints. The proposed consistent and reproducible technique could potentially transform diagnostic staging, clinical management and prognostication of DPLD patients as well as facilitate patient selection for clinical trials beyond the ability of current radiological tools. In addition, the sequential quantitative stratification of the type and extent of parenchymal process may allow standardized and objective monitoring of disease, early assessment of treatment response and mortality prediction for DPLD patients.

Quantitative Stratification of Diffuse Parenchymal Lung Diseases

Science.gov (United States)

Raghunath, Sushravya; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A.; Maldonado, Fabien; Peikert, Tobias; Moua, Teng; Ryu, Jay H.; Bartholmai, Brian J.; Robb, Richard A.

2014-01-01

Diffuse parenchymal lung diseases (DPLDs) are characterized by widespread pathological changes within the pulmonary tissue that impair the elasticity and gas exchange properties of the lungs. Clinical-radiological diagnosis of these diseases remains challenging and their clinical course is characterized by variable disease progression. These challenges have hindered the introduction of robust objective biomarkers for patient-specific prediction based on specific phenotypes in clinical practice for patients with DPLD. Therefore, strategies facilitating individualized clinical management, staging and identification of specific phenotypes linked to clinical disease outcomes or therapeutic responses are urgently needed. A classification schema consistently reflecting the radiological, clinical (lung function and clinical outcomes) and pathological features of a disease represents a critical need in modern pulmonary medicine. Herein, we report a quantitative stratification paradigm to identify subsets of DPLD patients with characteristic radiologic patterns in an unsupervised manner and demonstrate significant correlation of these self-organized disease groups with clinically accepted surrogate endpoints. The proposed consistent and reproducible technique could potentially transform diagnostic staging, clinical management and prognostication of DPLD patients as well as facilitate patient selection for clinical trials beyond the ability of current radiological tools. In addition, the sequential quantitative stratification of the type and extent of parenchymal process may allow standardized and objective monitoring of disease, early assessment of treatment response and mortality prediction for DPLD patients. PMID:24676019

The need for additional genetic markers for MDS stratification: what does the future hold for prognostication?

Science.gov (United States)

Otrock, Zaher K.; Tiu, Ramon V.; Maciejewski, Jaroslaw P.; Sekeres, Mikkael A.

2013-01-01

Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) constitute a heterogeneous group of clonal hematopoietic disorders. Metaphase cytogenetics (MC) has been the gold standard for genetic testing in MDS, but it can detect clonal cytogenetic abnormalities in only 50% of cases. New karyotyping tests include fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), array-based comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH), and single nucleotide polymorphism arrays (SNP-A). These techniques have increased the detected genetic abnormalities in MDS, many of which confer prognostic significance to overall and leukemia-free survival. This has eventually increased our understanding of MDS genetics. With the help of new technologies, we anticipate that the existing prognostic scoring systems will incorporate mutational data into their parameters. This review discusses the progress in MDS diagnosis through the use of array-based technologies. We also discuss the recently investigated genetic mutation in MDS, and revisit the MDS classification and prognostic scoring systems. PMID:23373781

Stratification and prognostic relevance of Jass’s molecular classification of colorectal cancer

OpenAIRE

Inti eZlobec; Inti eZlobec; Michel P Bihl; Anja eFoerster; Alex eRufle; Luigi eTerracciano; Alessandro eLugli; Alessandro eLugli

2012-01-01

Background: The current proposed model of colorectal tumorigenesis is based primarily on CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), microsatellite instability (MSI), KRAS, BRAF, and methylation status of 0-6-Methylguanine DNA Methyltransferase (MGMT) and classifies tumors into 5 subgroups. The aim of this study is to validate this molecular classification and test its prognostic relevance. Methods: 302 patients were included in this study. Molecular analysis was performed for 5 CIMP-related pro...

The HAT Score-A Simple Risk Stratification Score for Coagulopathic Bleeding During Adult Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation.

Science.gov (United States)

Lonergan, Terence; Herr, Daniel; Kon, Zachary; Menaker, Jay; Rector, Raymond; Tanaka, Kenichi; Mazzeffi, Michael

2017-06-01

The study objective was to create an adult extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) coagulopathic bleeding risk score. Secondary analysis was performed on an existing retrospective cohort. Pre-ECMO variables were tested for association with coagulopathic bleeding, and those with the strongest association were included in a multivariable model. Using this model, a risk stratification score was created. The score's utility was validated by comparing bleeding and transfusion rates between score levels. Bleeding also was examined after stratifying by nadir platelet count and overanticoagulation. Predictive power of the score was compared against the risk score for major bleeding during anti-coagulation for atrial fibrillation (HAS-BLED). Tertiary care academic medical center. The study comprised patients who received venoarterial or venovenous ECMO over a 3-year period, excluding those with an identified source of surgical bleeding during exploration. None. Fifty-three (47.3%) of 112 patients experienced coagulopathic bleeding. A 3-variable score-hypertension, age greater than 65, and ECMO type (HAT)-had fair predictive value (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.66) and was superior to HAS-BLED (AUC = 0.64). As the HAT score increased from 0 to 3, bleeding rates also increased as follows: 30.8%, 48.7%, 63.0%, and 71.4%, respectively. Platelet and fresh frozen plasma transfusion tended to increase with the HAT score, but red blood cell transfusion did not. Nadir platelet count less than 50×10 3 /µL and overanticoagulation during ECMO increased the AUC for the model to 0.73, suggesting additive risk. The HAT score may allow for bleeding risk stratification in adult ECMO patients. Future studies in larger cohorts are necessary to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

INLET STRATIFICATION DEVICE

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2006-01-01

An inlet stratification device (5) for a circuit circulating a fluid through a tank (1 ) and for providing and maintaining stratification of the fluid in the tank (1 ). The stratification de- vice (5) is arranged vertically in the tank (1) and comprises an inlet pipe (6) being at least partially...... formed of a flexible porous material and having an inlet (19) and outlets formed of the pores of the porous material. The stratification device (5) further comprises at least one outer pipe (7) surrounding the inlet pipe (6) in spaced relationship thereto and being at least partially formed of a porous...

Coronary Artery Calcium Screening: Does it Perform Better than Other Cardiovascular Risk Stratification Tools?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irfan Zeb

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Coronary artery calcium (CAC has been advocated as one of the strongest cardiovascular risk prediction markers. It performs better across a wide range of Framingham risk categories (6%–10% and 10%–20% 10-year risk categories and also helps in reclassifying the risk of these subjects into either higher or lower risk categories based on CAC scores. It also performs better among population subgroups where Framingham risk score does not perform well, especially young subjects, women, family history of premature coronary artery disease and ethnic differences in coronary risk. The absence of CAC is also associated with excellent prognosis, with 10-year event rate of 1%. Studies have also compared with other commonly used markers of cardiovascular disease risk such as Carotid intima-media thickness and highly sensitive C-reactive protein. CAC also performs better compared with carotid intima-media thickness and highly sensitive C-reactive protein in prediction of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease events. CAC scans are associated with relatively low radiation exposure (0.9–1.1 mSv and provide information that can be used not only for risk stratification but also can be used to track the progression of atherosclerosis and the effects of statins.

Fasting blood glucose is a novel prognostic indicator for extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma, nasal type

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Q; Luo, X; Liang, Y; Rao, H; Fang, X; Jiang, W; Lin, T; Lin, T; Huang, H

2013-01-01

Background: Extranodal natural killer (NK)/T-cell lymphoma, nasal type (ENKTL) is an aggressive disease with poor prognosis, requiring risk stratification. However, the prognosis of ENKTL is not fully defined and needs supplementation. We hypothesised that fasting blood glucose (FBG) may be a new prognostic factor for ENKTL. Methods: We retrospectively analysed 130 patients newly diagnosed with ENKTL. Results: Both univariate analysis and multivariate analysis revealed that FBG >100 mg dl−1 was associated with a poor outcome. Patients with FBG >100 mg dl−1 at diagnosis had more adverse clinical features, achieved lower complete remission rates (P=0.003) and had worse overall survival (PKPI) scores with different survival outcomes (PKPI. PMID:23299534

Pulmonary embolism in old age: usefulness of risk stratification in clinical decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlo Bova

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Pulmonary embolism (PE is a common disease with a not negligible short-term risk of death, in particular in the elderly. An adequate evaluation of the prognosis in patients with PE may guide decision-making in terms of the intensity of the initial treatment during the acute phase. Patients with shock or persistent hypotension are at high risk of early mortality and may benefit from immediate reperfusion. Several tools are available to define the short-term prognosis of hemodynamically stable patients. The pulmonary embolism severity index (PESI score, and the simplified PESI score are particularly useful for identifying patients at low risk of early complications who might be safely treated at home. The identification of patients who are hemodynamically stable at diagnosis but are at a high risk of early complications is more challenging. Current guidelines recommend a multi-parametric prognostic algorithm based on the clinical status, biomarkers and imaging tests. However an aggressive treatment in hemodynamically stable patients is still controversial.

Pharmacokinetic Tumor Heterogeneity as a Prognostic Biomarker for Classifying Breast Cancer Recurrence Risk.

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Mahrooghy, Majid; Ashraf, Ahmed B; Daye, Dania; McDonald, Elizabeth S; Rosen, Mark; Mies, Carolyn; Feldman, Michael; Kontos, Despina

2015-06-01

Heterogeneity in cancer can affect response to therapy and patient prognosis. Histologic measures have classically been used to measure heterogeneity, although a reliable noninvasive measurement is needed both to establish baseline risk of recurrence and monitor response to treatment. Here, we propose using spatiotemporal wavelet kinetic features from dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging to quantify intratumor heterogeneity in breast cancer. Tumor pixels are first partitioned into homogeneous subregions using pharmacokinetic measures. Heterogeneity wavelet kinetic (HetWave) features are then extracted from these partitions to obtain spatiotemporal patterns of the wavelet coefficients and the contrast agent uptake. The HetWave features are evaluated in terms of their prognostic value using a logistic regression classifier with genetic algorithm wrapper-based feature selection to classify breast cancer recurrence risk as determined by a validated gene expression assay. Receiver operating characteristic analysis and area under the curve (AUC) are computed to assess classifier performance using leave-one-out cross validation. The HetWave features outperform other commonly used features (AUC = 0.88 HetWave versus 0.70 standard features). The combination of HetWave and standard features further increases classifier performance (AUCs 0.94). The rate of the spatial frequency pattern over the pharmacokinetic partitions can provide valuable prognostic information. HetWave could be a powerful feature extraction approach for characterizing tumor heterogeneity, providing valuable prognostic information.

Application of multivariate probabilistic (Bayesian) networks to substance use disorder risk stratification and cost estimation.

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Weinstein, Lawrence; Radano, Todd A; Jack, Timothy; Kalina, Philip; Eberhardt, John S

2009-09-16

This paper explores the use of machine learning and Bayesian classification models to develop broadly applicable risk stratification models to guide disease management of health plan enrollees with substance use disorder (SUD). While the high costs and morbidities associated with SUD are understood by payers, who manage it through utilization review, acute interventions, coverage and cost limitations, and disease management, the literature shows mixed results for these modalities in improving patient outcomes and controlling cost. Our objective is to evaluate the potential of data mining methods to identify novel risk factors for chronic disease and stratification of enrollee utilization, which can be used to develop new methods for targeting disease management services to maximize benefits to both enrollees and payers. For our evaluation, we used DecisionQ machine learning algorithms to build Bayesian network models of a representative sample of data licensed from Thomson-Reuters' MarketScan consisting of 185,322 enrollees with three full-year claim records. Data sets were prepared, and a stepwise learning process was used to train a series of Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). The BBNs were validated using a 10 percent holdout set. The networks were highly predictive, with the risk-stratification BBNs producing area under the curve (AUC) for SUD positive of 0.948 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.944-0.951) and 0.736 (95 percent CI, 0.721-0.752), respectively, and SUD negative of 0.951 (95 percent CI, 0.947-0.954) and 0.738 (95 percent CI, 0.727-0.750), respectively. The cost estimation models produced area under the curve ranging from 0.72 (95 percent CI, 0.708-0.731) to 0.961 (95 percent CI, 0.95-0.971). We were able to successfully model a large, heterogeneous population of commercial enrollees, applying state-of-the-art machine learning technology to develop complex and accurate multivariate models that support near-real-time scoring of novel payer

Incorporating Stroke and Bleeding Risk Stratification Tools into Atrial Fibrillation Management Making Sense of the Alphabet Soup.

Science.gov (United States)

Deering, Thomas F

2017-01-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia managed by many physicians in a variety of clinical settings. One of the most important clinical decisions related to effective AF management centers upon the need to perform accurate thromboembolic risk stratification followed by effective management decisions that align with established guidelines. This manuscript will review the present state of the art and provide guidance to physicians to enhance patient outcomes.

Low Tumor Infiltrating Mast Cell Density Confers Prognostic Benefit and Reflects Immunoactivation in Colorectal Cancer.

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Mao, Yihao; Feng, Qingyang; Zheng, Peng; Yang, Liangliang; Zhu, Dexiang; Chang, Wenju; Ji, Meiling; He, Guodong; Xu, Jianmin

2018-06-06

The role of mast cells (MCs) in colorectal cancer (CRC) progression was controversial. Thus, this study was designed to evaluate the prognostic value of MCs as well as their correlation with immune microenvironment. A retrospective cohort of CRC patients of stage I-IV was enrolled in this study. 854 consecutive patients were divided into training set (427 patients) and validation set (427 patients) randomly. The findings were further validated in a GEO cohort, GSE39582 (556 patients). The mast cell density (MCD) was measured by immunohistochemical staining of tryptase or by CIBERSORT algorithm. Low MCD predicted prolonged overall survival (OS) in training and validation set. Moreover, MCD was identified as an independent prognostic indicator in both sets. Better stratification for CRC prognosis can be achieved by building a MCD based nomogram. The prognostic role of MCD was further validated in GSE39582. In addition, MCD predicted improved survival in stage II and III CRC patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT). Multiple immune pathways were enriched in low MCD group while cytokines/chemokines promoting anti-tumor immunity were highly expressed in such group. Furthermore, MCD was negatively correlated with CD8+ T cells infiltration. In conclusion, MCD was identified as an independent prognostic factor, as well as a potential biomarker for ACT benefit in stage II and III CRC. Better stratification of CRC prognosis could be achieved by building a MCD based nomogram. Moreover, immunoactivation in low MCD tumors may contributed to improved prognosis. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 UICC.

The effect of prognostic data presentation format on perceived risk among surrogate decision makers of critically ill patients: a randomized comparative trial.

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Chapman, Andy R; Litton, Edward; Chamberlain, Jenny; Ho, Kwok M

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study is to determine whether varying the format used to present prognostic data alters the perception of risk among surrogate decision makers in the intensive care unit (ICU). This was a prospective randomized comparative trial conducted in a 23-bed adult tertiary ICU. Enrolled surrogate decision makers were randomized to 1 of 2 questionnaires, which presented hypothetical ICU scenarios, identical other than the format in which prognostic data were presented (eg, frequencies vs percentages). Participants were asked to rate the risk associated with each prognostic statement. We enrolled 141 surrogate decision makers. The perception of risk varied significantly dependent on the presentation format. For "quantitative data," risks were consistently perceived as higher, when presented as frequencies (eg, 1 in 50) compared with equivalent percentages (eg, 2%). Framing "qualitative data" in terms of chance of "death" rather than "survival" led to a statistically significant increase in perceived risks. Framing "quantitative" data in this way did not significantly affect risk perception. Data format had a significant effect on how surrogate decision makers interpreted risk. Qualitative statements are interpreted widely and affected by framing. Where possible, multiple quantitative formats should be used for presenting prognostic information. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combining standardized uptake value of FDG-PET and apparent diffusion coefficient of DW-MRI improves risk stratification in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

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Preda, Lorenzo; Summers, Paul E. [European Institute of Oncology, Department of Radiology, Milan (Italy); Conte, Giorgio; Bonello, Luke; Giannitto, Caterina; Ruju, Francesca [University of Milan, Specialisation School of Radiology, Milan (Italy); Travaini, Laura L.; Grana, Chiara [European Institute of Oncology, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Milan (Italy); Raimondi, Sara [European Institute of Oncology, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Milan (Italy); Mohssen, Ansarin [European Institute of Oncology, Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Milan (Italy); Alterio, Daniela [European Institute of Oncology, Department of Radiotherapy, Milan (Italy); Cossu Rocca, Maria [European Institute of Oncology, Department of Urogenital Cancer Medical Treatment, Milan (Italy); Bellomi, Massimo [European Institute of Oncology, Department of Radiology, Milan (Italy); University of Milan, Department of Oncology and Haematology-Oncology, Milan (Italy)

2016-12-15

To assess the independent prognostic value of standardized uptake value (SUV) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), separately and combined, in order to evaluate if the combination of these two variables allows further prognostic stratification of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC). Pretreatment SUV and ADC were calculated in 57 patients with HNSCC. Mean follow-up was 21.3 months. Semiquantitative analysis of primary tumours was performed using SUV{sub maxT/B}, ADC{sub mean}, ADC{sub min} and ADC{sub max}. The prognostic value of SUV{sub maxT/B}, ADC{sub mean}, ADC{sub min} and ADC{sub max} in predicting disease-free survival (DFS) was evaluated with log-rank test and Cox regression models. Patients with SUV{sub maxT/B} ≥5.75 had an overall worse prognosis (p = 0.003). After adjusting for lymph node status and diameter, SUV{sub maxT/B} and ADC{sub min} were both significant predictors of DFS with hazard ratio (HR) = 10.37 (95 % CI 1.22-87.95) and 3.26 (95 % CI 1.20-8.85) for SUV{sub maxT/B} ≥5.75 and ADC{sub min} ≥0.58 x 10{sup -3} mm{sup 2}/s, respectively. When the analysis was restricted to subjects with SUV{sub maxT/B} ≥5.75, high ADC{sub min} significantly predicted a worse prognosis, with adjusted HR = 3.11 (95 % CI 1.13-8.55). The combination of SUV{sub maxT/B} and ADC{sub min} improves the prognostic role of the two separate parameters; patients with high SUV{sub maxT/B} and high ADC{sub min} are associated with a poor prognosis. (orig.)

Hodgkin lymphoma: 2018 update on diagnosis, risk-stratification, and management.

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Ansell, Stephen M

2018-05-01

Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is an uncommon B-cell lymphoid malignancy affecting 8500 new patients annually and representing approximately 10.2% of all lymphomas in the United States. HL is composed of two distinct disease entities: classical HL and nodular lymphocyte predominant HL. Nodular sclerosis, mixed cellularity, lymphocyte depletion, and lymphocyte-rich HL are subgroups of classical HL. An accurate assessment of the stage of disease in patients with HL is critical for the selection of the appropriate therapy. Prognostic models that identify patients at low or high risk for recurrence, as well as the response to therapy as determined by positron emission tomography scan, are used to optimize therapy. Initial therapy for HL patients is based on the histology of the disease, the anatomical stage and the presence of poor prognostic features. Patients with early stage disease are typically treated with combined modality strategies utilizing abbreviated courses of combination chemotherapy followed by involved-field radiation therapy, while those with advanced stage disease receive a longer course of chemotherapy often without radiation therapy. Newer agents including brentuximab vedotin are now being incorporated into frontline therapy and these new combinations are becoming a standard of care. High-dose chemotherapy (HDCT) followed by an autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) is the standard of care for most patients who relapse following initial therapy. For patients who fail HDCT with ASCT, brentuximab vedotin, PD-1 blockade, nonmyeloablative allogeneic transplant or participation in a clinical trial should be considered. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Congenital and hereditary causes of sudden cardiac death in young adults: diagnosis, differential diagnosis, and risk stratification.

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Stojanovska, Jadranka; Garg, Anubhav; Patel, Smita; Melville, David M; Kazerooni, Ella A; Mueller, Gisela C

2013-01-01

Sudden cardiac death is defined as death from unexpected circulatory arrest-usually a result of cardiac arrhythmia-that occurs within 1 hour of the onset of symptoms. Proper and timely identification of individuals at risk for sudden cardiac death and the diagnosis of its predisposing conditions are vital. A careful history and physical examination, in addition to electrocardiography and cardiac imaging, are essential to identify conditions associated with sudden cardiac death. Among young adults (18-35 years), sudden cardiac death most commonly results from a previously undiagnosed congenital or hereditary condition, such as coronary artery anomalies and inherited cardiomyopathies (eg, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy [ARVC], dilated cardiomyopathy, and noncompaction cardiomyopathy). Overall, the most common causes of sudden cardiac death in young adults are, in descending order of frequency, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, coronary artery anomalies with an interarterial or intramural course, and ARVC. Often, sudden cardiac death is precipitated by ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation and may be prevented with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). Risk stratification to determine the need for an ICD is challenging and involves imaging, particularly echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. Coronary artery anomalies, a diverse group of congenital disorders with a variable manifestation, may be depicted at coronary computed tomographic angiography or MR angiography. A thorough understanding of clinical risk stratification, imaging features, and complementary diagnostic tools for the evaluation of cardiac disorders that may lead to sudden cardiac death is essential to effectively use imaging to guide diagnosis and therapy.

SUVmax of 18FDG PET/CT as a predictor of high-risk endometrial cancer patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Antonsen, Sofie Leisby; Loft, Annika; Fisker, Rune Vincents

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate SUVmax in the assessment of endometrial cancer preoperatively with particular focus on myometrial invasion (MI), cervical invasion (CI), FIGO stage, risk-stratification and lymph node metastases (LNM). METHODS: A total of 268 women with endometrial cancer or atypical...... endometrial hyperplasia underwent FDG PET/CT imaging before surgical treatment. SUVmax of the primary tumour was compared with histological prognostic factors. RESULTS: SUVmax was significantly higher in patients with high FIGO stages (p...

Prognostic Value and Reproducibility of Pretreatment CT Texture Features in Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

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Fried, David V. [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, Texas (United States); Tucker, Susan L. [Department of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Zhou, Shouhao [Division of Quantitative Sciences, Department of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Liao, Zhongxing [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Mawlawi, Osama [Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, Texas (United States); Ibbott, Geoffrey [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, Texas (United States); Court, Laurence E., E-mail: LECourt@mdanderson.org [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, Texas (United States)

2014-11-15

Purpose: To determine whether pretreatment CT texture features can improve patient risk stratification beyond conventional prognostic factors (CPFs) in stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: We retrospectively reviewed 91 cases with stage III NSCLC treated with definitive chemoradiation therapy. All patients underwent pretreatment diagnostic contrast enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT) followed by 4-dimensional CT (4D-CT) for treatment simulation. We used the average-CT and expiratory (T50-CT) images from the 4D-CT along with the CE-CT for texture extraction. Histogram, gradient, co-occurrence, gray tone difference, and filtration-based techniques were used for texture feature extraction. Penalized Cox regression implementing cross-validation was used for covariate selection and modeling. Models incorporating texture features from the 33 image types and CPFs were compared to those with models incorporating CPFs alone for overall survival (OS), local-regional control (LRC), and freedom from distant metastases (FFDM). Predictive Kaplan-Meier curves were generated using leave-one-out cross-validation. Patients were stratified based on whether their predicted outcome was above or below the median. Reproducibility of texture features was evaluated using test-retest scans from independent patients and quantified using concordance correlation coefficients (CCC). We compared models incorporating the reproducibility seen on test-retest scans to our original models and determined the classification reproducibility. Results: Models incorporating both texture features and CPFs demonstrated a significant improvement in risk stratification compared to models using CPFs alone for OS (P=.046), LRC (P=.01), and FFDM (P=.005). The average CCCs were 0.89, 0.91, and 0.67 for texture features extracted from the average-CT, T50-CT, and CE-CT, respectively. Incorporating reproducibility within our models yielded 80.4% (±3.7% SD), 78.3% (±4.0% SD), and 78

Prognostic Value and Reproducibility of Pretreatment CT Texture Features in Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fried, David V.; Tucker, Susan L.; Zhou, Shouhao; Liao, Zhongxing; Mawlawi, Osama; Ibbott, Geoffrey; Court, Laurence E.

2014-01-01

Purpose: To determine whether pretreatment CT texture features can improve patient risk stratification beyond conventional prognostic factors (CPFs) in stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: We retrospectively reviewed 91 cases with stage III NSCLC treated with definitive chemoradiation therapy. All patients underwent pretreatment diagnostic contrast enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT) followed by 4-dimensional CT (4D-CT) for treatment simulation. We used the average-CT and expiratory (T50-CT) images from the 4D-CT along with the CE-CT for texture extraction. Histogram, gradient, co-occurrence, gray tone difference, and filtration-based techniques were used for texture feature extraction. Penalized Cox regression implementing cross-validation was used for covariate selection and modeling. Models incorporating texture features from the 33 image types and CPFs were compared to those with models incorporating CPFs alone for overall survival (OS), local-regional control (LRC), and freedom from distant metastases (FFDM). Predictive Kaplan-Meier curves were generated using leave-one-out cross-validation. Patients were stratified based on whether their predicted outcome was above or below the median. Reproducibility of texture features was evaluated using test-retest scans from independent patients and quantified using concordance correlation coefficients (CCC). We compared models incorporating the reproducibility seen on test-retest scans to our original models and determined the classification reproducibility. Results: Models incorporating both texture features and CPFs demonstrated a significant improvement in risk stratification compared to models using CPFs alone for OS (P=.046), LRC (P=.01), and FFDM (P=.005). The average CCCs were 0.89, 0.91, and 0.67 for texture features extracted from the average-CT, T50-CT, and CE-CT, respectively. Incorporating reproducibility within our models yielded 80.4% (±3.7% SD), 78.3% (±4.0% SD), and 78

A new prognostic score for AIDS-related lymphomas in the rituximab-era

Science.gov (United States)

Barta, Stefan K.; Xue, Xiaonan; Wang, Dan; Lee, Jeannette Y.; Kaplan, Lawrence D.; Ribera, Josep-Maria; Oriol, Albert; Spina, Michele; Tirelli, Umberto; Boue, Francois; Wilson, Wyndham H.; Wyen, Christoph; Dunleavy, Kieron; Noy, Ariela; Sparano, Joseph A.

2014-01-01

While the International Prognostic Index is commonly used to predict outcomes in immunocompetent patients with aggressive B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphomas, HIV-infection is an important competing risk for death in patients with AIDS-related lymphomas. We investigated whether a newly created prognostic score (AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index) could better assess risk of death in patients with AIDS-related lymphomas. We randomly divided a dataset of 487 patients newly diagnosed with AIDS-related lymphomas and treated with rituximab-containing chemoimmunotherapy into a training (n=244) and validation (n=243) set. We examined the association of HIV-related and other known risk factors with overall survival in both sets independently. We defined a new score (AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index) by assigning weights to each significant predictor [age-adjusted International Prognostic Index, extranodal sites, HIV-score (composed of CD4 count, viral load, and prior history of AIDS)] with three risk categories similar to the age-adjusted International Prognostic Index (low, intermediate and high risk). We compared the prognostic value for overall survival between AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index and age-adjusted International Prognostic Index in the validation set and found that the AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index performed significantly better in predicting risk of death than the age-adjusted International Prognostic Index (P=0.004) and better discriminated risk of death between each risk category (P=0.015 vs. P=0.13). Twenty-eight percent of patients were defined as low risk by the ARL-IPI and had an estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) of 78% (52% intermediate risk, 5-year OS 60%; 20% high risk, 5-year OS 50%). PMID:25150257

Microalbuminuria could improve risk stratification in patients with TIA and minor stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

Elyas, Salim; Shore, Angela C; Kingwell, Hayley; Keenan, Samantha; Boxall, Leigh; Stewart, Jane; James, Martin A; Strain, William David

2016-09-01

Transient ischemic attacks (TIA) and minor strokes are important risk factors for recurrent strokes. Current stroke risk prediction scores such as ABCD2, although widely used, lack optimal sensitivity and specificity. Elevated urinary albumin excretion predicts cardiovascular disease, stroke, and mortality. We explored the role of microalbuminuria (using albumin creatinine ratio (ACR)) in predicting recurrence risk in patients with TIA and minor stroke. Urinary ACR was measured on a spot sample in 150 patients attending a daily stroke clinic with TIA or minor stroke. Patients were followed up at day 7, 30, and 90 to determine recurrent stroke, cardiovascular events, or death. Eligible patients had a carotid ultrasound Doppler investigation. High-risk patients were defined as those who had an event within 90 days or had >50% internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis. Fourteen (9.8%) recurrent events were reported by day 90 including two deaths. Fifteen patients had severe ICA stenosis. In total, 26 patients were identified as high risk. These patients had a higher frequency of previous stroke or hypercholesterolemia compared to low-risk patients (P = 0.04). ACR was higher in high-risk patients (3.4 [95% CI 2.2-5.2] vs. 1.7 [1.5-2.1] mg/mmol, P = 0.004), independent of age, sex, blood pressure, diabetes, and previous stroke. An ACR greater than 1.5 mg/mmol predicted high-risk patients (Cox proportional hazard ratio 3.5 (95% CI 1.3-9.5, P = 0.01). After TIA or minor stroke, a higher ACR predicted recurrent events and significant ICA stenosis. Incorporation of urinary ACR from a spot sample in the acute setting could improve risk stratification in patients with TIA and minor stroke.

Risk stratification for venous thromboembolism in patients with testicular germ cell tumors.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angelika Bezan

Full Text Available Patients with testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT have an increased risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE. We identified risk factors for VTE in this patient cohort and developed a clinical risk model.In this retrospective cohort study at the Medical University of Graz we included 657 consecutive TGCT patients across all clinical stages. A predictive model for VTE was developed and externally validated in 349 TGCT patients treated at the University Hospital Zurich.Venous thromboembolic events occurred in 34 (5.2% patients in the Graz cohort. In univariable competing risk analysis, higher clinical stage (cS and a retroperitoneal lymphadenopathy (RPLN were the strongest predictors of VTE (p<0.0001. As the presence of a RPLN with more than 5cm in greatest dimension without coexisting visceral metastases is classified as cS IIC, we constructed an empirical VTE risk model with the following four categories (12-month-cumulative incidence: cS IA-B 8/463 patients (1.7%, cS IS-IIB 5/86 patients (5.9%, cS IIC 3/21 patients (14.3% and cS IIIA-C 15/70 patients (21.4%. This risk model was externally validated in the Zurich cohort (12-month-cumulative incidence: cS IA-B (0.5%, cS IS-IIB (6.0%, cS IIC (11.1% and cS IIIA-C (19.1%. Our model had a significantly higher discriminatory performance than a previously published classifier (RPLN-VTE-risk-classifier which is based on the size of RPLN alone (AUC-ROC: 0.75 vs. 0.63, p = 0.007.According to our risk stratification, TGCT patients with cS IIC and cS III disease have a very high risk of VTE and may benefit from primary thromboprophylaxis for the duration of chemotherapy.

Pharmacogenetic Risk Stratification in Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor-Treated Patients with Congestive Heart Failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nelveg-Kristensen, Karl Emil; Busk Madsen, Majbritt; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Evidence for pharmacogenetic risk stratification of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) treatment is limited. Therefore, in a cohort of ACEI-treated patients with congestive heart failure (CHF), we investigated the predictive value of two pharmacogenetic scores...... SNPs of the angiotensin-converting enzyme gene (rs4343) and ABO blood group genes (rs495828 and rs8176746). METHODS: Danish patients with CHF enrolled in the previously reported Echocardiography and Heart Outcome Study were included. Subjects were genotyped and categorized according to pharmacogenetic.......05 [95% CI 0.79-1.40]), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We found no association between either of the analyzed pharmacogenetic scores and fatal outcomes in ACEI-treated patients with CHF....

A prognostic gene signature for metastasis-free survival of triple negative breast cancer patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Unjin; Frankenberger, Casey; Yun, Jieun; Bevilacqua, Elena; Caldas, Carlos; Chin, Suet-Feung; Rueda, Oscar M; Reinitz, John; Rosner, Marsha Rich

2013-01-01

Although triple negative breast cancers (TNBC) are the most aggressive subtype of breast cancer, they currently lack targeted therapies. Because this classification still includes a heterogeneous collection of tumors, new tools to classify TNBCs are urgently required in order to improve our prognostic capability for high risk patients and predict response to therapy. We previously defined a gene expression signature, RKIP Pathway Metastasis Signature (RPMS), based upon a metastasis-suppressive signaling pathway initiated by Raf Kinase Inhibitory Protein (RKIP). We have now generated a new BACH1 Pathway Metastasis gene signature (BPMS) that utilizes targets of the metastasis regulator BACH1. Specifically, we substituted experimentally validated target genes to generate a new BACH1 metagene, developed an approach to optimize patient tumor stratification, and reduced the number of signature genes to 30. The BPMS significantly and selectively stratified metastasis-free survival in basal-like and, in particular, TNBC patients. In addition, the BPMS further stratified patients identified as having a good or poor prognosis by other signatures including the Mammaprint® and Oncotype® clinical tests. The BPMS is thus complementary to existing signatures and is a prognostic tool for high risk ER-HER2- patients. We also demonstrate the potential clinical applicability of the BPMS as a single sample predictor. Together, these results reveal the potential of this pathway-based BPMS gene signature to identify high risk TNBC patients that can respond effectively to targeted therapy, and highlight BPMS genes as novel drug targets for therapeutic development.

A prognostic gene signature for metastasis-free survival of triple negative breast cancer patients.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Unjin Lee

Full Text Available Although triple negative breast cancers (TNBC are the most aggressive subtype of breast cancer, they currently lack targeted therapies. Because this classification still includes a heterogeneous collection of tumors, new tools to classify TNBCs are urgently required in order to improve our prognostic capability for high risk patients and predict response to therapy. We previously defined a gene expression signature, RKIP Pathway Metastasis Signature (RPMS, based upon a metastasis-suppressive signaling pathway initiated by Raf Kinase Inhibitory Protein (RKIP. We have now generated a new BACH1 Pathway Metastasis gene signature (BPMS that utilizes targets of the metastasis regulator BACH1. Specifically, we substituted experimentally validated target genes to generate a new BACH1 metagene, developed an approach to optimize patient tumor stratification, and reduced the number of signature genes to 30. The BPMS significantly and selectively stratified metastasis-free survival in basal-like and, in particular, TNBC patients. In addition, the BPMS further stratified patients identified as having a good or poor prognosis by other signatures including the Mammaprint® and Oncotype® clinical tests. The BPMS is thus complementary to existing signatures and is a prognostic tool for high risk ER-HER2- patients. We also demonstrate the potential clinical applicability of the BPMS as a single sample predictor. Together, these results reveal the potential of this pathway-based BPMS gene signature to identify high risk TNBC patients that can respond effectively to targeted therapy, and highlight BPMS genes as novel drug targets for therapeutic development.

The Strauss and Carpenter Prognostic Scale in subjects clinically at high risk of psychosis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nieman, D. H.; Velthorst, E.; Becker, H. E.; de Haan, L.; Dingemans, P. M.; Linszen, D. H.; Birchwood, M.; Patterson, P.; Salokangas, R. K. R.; Heinimaa, M.; Heinz, A.; Juckel, G.; von Reventlow, H. G.; Morrison, A.; Schultze-Lutter, F.; Klosterkötter, J.; Ruhrmann, S.; McGorry, Patrick D.; McGlashan, Thomas H.; Knapp, Martin; van de Fliert, Reinaud; Klaassen, Rianne; Picker, Heinz; Neumann, Meike; Brockhaus-Dumke, Anke; Pukrop, Ralf; Svirskis, Tanja; Huttunen, Jukka; Laine, Tiina; Ilonen, Tuula; Ristkari, Terja; Hietala, Jarmo; Skeate, Amanda; Gudlowski, Yehonala; Ozgürdal, Seza; French, Paul; Stevens, Helen

2013-01-01

To investigate the predictive value of the Strauss and Carpenter Prognostic Scale (SCPS) for transition to a first psychotic episode in subjects clinically at high risk (CHR) of psychosis. Two hundred and forty-four CHR subjects participating in the European Prediction of Psychosis Study were

DNA Methylation Adds Prognostic Value to Minimal Residual Disease Status in Pediatric T-Cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borssén, Magnus; Haider, Zahra; Landfors, Mattias

2016-01-01

. In modern protocols, therapy response is monitored by minimal residual disease (MRD) analysis and used for postinduction risk group stratification. DNA methylation profiling is a candidate for subtype discrimination at diagnosis and we investigated its role as a prognostic marker in pediatric T......: 29% vs. 6%, P = 0.01). Most importantly, CIMP classification at diagnosis allowed subgrouping of high-risk T-ALL patients (MRD ≥0.1% at day 29) into two groups with significant differences in outcome (CIR3y rates: CIMP negative 50% vs. CIMP positive 12%; P = 0.02). These groups did not differ...... regarding ETP phenotype, but the CIMP-negative group was younger (P = 0.02) and had higher white blood cell count at diagnosis (P = 0.004) compared with the CIMP-positive group. CONCLUSIONS: CIMP classification at diagnosis in combination with MRD during induction therapy is a strong candidate for further...

Clinical impact and risk stratification of balloon angioplasty for femoropopliteal disease in nitinol stenting era: Retrospective multicenter study using propensity score matching analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taketsugu Tsuchiya

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Objective: Nitinol stenting could bring the better outcome in endovascular therapy for femoropopliteal disease. However, it might be expected that recent marked advances in both device technology and operator technique had led to improved efficacy of balloon angioplasty even in this segment. The aims of this study were to evaluate the clinical impact of balloon angioplasty for femoropopliteal disease and make risk stratification clear by propensity score matching analysis. Methods: Based on the multicenter retrospective data, 2758 patients (balloon angioplasty: 729 patients and nitinol stenting: 2029 patients, those who underwent endovascular therapy for femoropopliteal disease, were analyzed. Results: The propensity score matching procedure extracted a total of 572 cases per group, and the primary patency rate of balloon angioplasty and nitinol stenting groups after matching was significantly the same (77.2% vs 82.7% at 1 year; 62.2% vs 64.3% at 3 years; 47.8% vs 54.3% at 5 years. In multivariate Cox hazard regression analysis, significant predictors for primary patency were diabetes mellitus, regular dialysis, cilostazol use, chronic total occlusion, and intra-vascular ultra-sonography use. The strategy of balloon angioplasty was not evaluated as a significant predictor for the primary patency. After risk stratification using five items (diabetes mellitus, regular dialysis, no use of intra-vascular ultra-sonography, chronic total occlusion, and no use of cilostazol: the DDICC score, the estimated primary patency rates of each group (low, DDICC score 0–2; moderate, DDICC score 3; high risk, DDICC score 4–5 were 88.6%, 78.3%, and 63.5% at 1 year; 75.2%, 60.7%, and 39.8% at 3 years; and 66.0%, 47.1%, and 26.3% at 5 years (p < 0.0001. The primary patency rate of balloon angioplasty and nitinol stenting groups was significantly the same in each risk stratification. Conclusion: This study suggests that balloon angioplasty does

Incremental prognostic value of coronary computed tomographic angiography high-risk plaque characteristics in newly symptomatic patients.

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Fujimoto, Shinichiro; Kondo, Takeshi; Takamura, Kazuhisa; Baber, Usman; Shinozaki, Tomohiro; Nishizaki, Yuji; Kawaguchi, Yuko; Matsumori, Rie; Hiki, Makoto; Miyauchi, Katsumi; Daida, Hiroyuki; Hecht, Harvey; Stone, Gregg W; Narula, Jagat

2016-06-01

The incremental prognostic value of the plaque features in coronary computed tomographic angiography (CTA) has not been well assessed. This study was designed to determine whether CTA high-risk plaques have prognostic value incremental to the Framingham risk score (FRS) and the severity of luminal obstruction. A total of 628 newly symptomatic patients without known coronary artery disease underwent CTA. They were followed for a median of 677 days during which there were 26 cardiac events, including cardiac death, acute myocardial infarction, and hospitalization for unstable angina. Incremental prognostic value of adding plaque characteristics to the number of diseased vessels and the FRS was evaluated using 3 Cox models and net reclassification indexes. The discrimination index was significantly increased by adding the number of diseased vessels to the FRS (change in c-statistic from 65.8% to 78.6%, p=0.028) but not significantly by further adding plaque characteristics (change in c-statistic from 78.6% to 80.0%, p=0.812). However, improved model-fitting by adding plaque characteristics into the linear combination with risk score and the number of diseased vessels (p=0.007 from likelihood ratio test) and the lowest value of Akaike's information criteria of that model indicated that plaque characteristics improved both predictive accuracy and discrimination perspective. More subjects reclassified by plaque characteristics were moved to directions consistent with their subsequent cardiac event status than in an inconsistent direction. Evaluation of CTA plaque characteristics may provide incremental prognostic value to the number of diseased vessels and the FRS. Copyright © 2015 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The value of exercise radionuclide ventriculography in risk stratification in patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iskandrian, A.S.; Hakki, A.H.; Kane, S.; Schenk, C.

1985-01-01

This study examined the value of rest and exercise (EX) radionuclide ventriculography (RNV) in risk stratification in 392 pts with suspected or known coronary artery disease who were being evaluated for anginal symptoms. There were 289 men and 203 women, aged 55 +- 12 years (mean +- SD). There were 20 cardiac events in the followup period of up to 4 years (19 +- 10 months): 14 pts died of cardiac causes and 6 had non-fatal acute myocardial infarctions. The pts with and without events did not differ in age, clinical presentation, risk factors, and rest and EX ECGs. However, pts with events had lower EX systolic blood pressure (p < 0.02); lower EX duration; (5.5 +- 2.5 vs 7.6 +- 3.7 minutes, p < 0.0l), lower resting left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (EF) (p = 0.001), and lower EX EF (35 +- 17% vs 56 +- 15%, p = 0.0001). The change in EF from rest to EX was not significantly different (-0.1 +- 6.1 vs 3 +- 9.9). Univariate survival analysis (Cox model) showed several descriptors related to prognosis: EX EF, rest EF, wall motion and EX duration. Multivariate analysis, however, identified the EX EF as the only significant predictor (X/sup 2/ = 19.9). None of the other variables added independent information to that provided by the EX EF. Actuarial lie table analysis showed that the risk increased as the EX EF decreased, when pts were grouped into those with EXEF ≥ 50%, 30-49%, and <30%., (p = 0.001, Mantel-Cox). Thus, the EX RNV is useful in risk stratification; the EX EF is the best descriptor that categorizes pts into different risk groups

The prognostic value of MRI in determining reinjury risk following acute hamstring injury: a systematic review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Heumen, Moniek; Tol, Johannes L.; de Vos, Robert-Jan; Moen, Maarten H.; Weir, Adam; Orchard, John; Reurink, Gustaaf

2017-01-01

A challenge for sports physicians is to estimate the risk of a hamstring re-injury, but the current evidence for MRI variables as a risk factor is unknown. To systematically review the literature on the prognostic value of MRI findings at index injury and/or return to play for acute hamstring

Validation of the prognostic value of lymph node ratio in patients with cutaneous melanoma: a population-based study of 8,177 cases.

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Mocellin, Simone; Pasquali, Sandro; Rossi, Carlo Riccardo; Nitti, Donato

2011-07-01

The proportion of positive among examined lymph nodes (lymph node ratio [LNR]) has been recently proposed as an useful and easy-to-calculate prognostic factor for patients with cutaneous melanoma. However, its independence from the standard prognostic system TNM has not been formally proven in a large series of patients. Patients with histologically proven cutaneous melanoma were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology End Results database. Disease-specific survival was the clinical outcome of interest. The prognostic ability of conventional factors and LNR was assessed by multivariable survival analysis using the Cox regression model. Eligible patients (n = 8,177) were diagnosed with melanoma between 1998 and 2006. Among lymph node-positive cases (n = 3,872), most LNR values ranged from 1% to 10% (n = 2,187). In the whole series (≥5 lymph nodes examined) LNR significantly contributed to the Cox model independently of the TNM effect on survival (hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-1.32; P < .0001). On subgroup analysis, the significant and independent prognostic value of LNR was confirmed both in patients with ≥10 lymph nodes examined (n = 4,381) and in those with TNM stage III disease (n = 3,658). In all cases, LNR increased the prognostic accuracy of the survival model. In this large series of patients, the LNR independently predicted disease-specific survival, improving the prognostic accuracy of the TNM system. Accordingly, the LNR should be taken into account for the stratification of patients' risk, both in clinical and research settings. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic factors in follicular lymphoma: new tools to personalize risk.

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Casulo, Carla

2016-12-02

Follicular lymphoma (FL) is the most common indolent lymphoma, and it has a long median overall survival (OS). However, the recent discovery of clinical and biological prognostic biomarkers in FL is shedding light on FL heterogeneity and the need for a precise and risk-stratified individual approach at diagnosis and relapse. Many FL patients who are asymptomatic with indolent disease can be vulnerable to the toxicity, emotional distress, and financial burden of overtreatment. Yet a subset of FL patients develop chemoresistance to standard chemoimmunotherapy, experience transformation to aggressive lymphoma and rapid progression, and represent the population most in need of novel therapies and curative approaches. Novel biomarkers that incorporate both clinical and genetic determinants of poor risk are being developed with the hope of identifying high-risk patients at diagnosis in order to offer biologically rational targeted therapies. © 2016 by The American Society of Hematology. All rights reserved.

Preoperative risk stratification using metabolic parameters of {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT in patients with endometrial cancer

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Kitajima, Kazuhiro [Kobe University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Kobe (Japan); Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Kobe (Japan); Suenaga, Yuko; Ueno, Yoshiko; Maeda, Tetsuo; Sofue, Keitarou; Sugimura, Kazuro [Kobe University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Kobe (Japan); Ebina, Yasuhiko; Yamada, Hideto [Kobe University School of Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Kobe (Japan); Okunaga, Takashi; Kubo, Kazuhiro [Kobe University Hospital, Department of Radiology Division, Kobe (Japan); Kanda, Tomonori [Teikyo University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Tokyo (Japan); Tamaki, Yukihisa [Shimane University School of Medicine, Department of Radiation Oncology, Shimane (Japan)

2015-07-15

To evaluate the usefulness of metabolic parameters obtained by {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT for preoperative stratification of high-risk and low-risk endometrial carcinomas. Preoperative {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT was performed in 56 women with endometrial cancer. Maximum standardized uptake values (SUVmax), metabolic tumour volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) of primary tumours were compared with clinicopathological features of surgical specimens. Diagnostic performance in terms of differentiation of low-risk disease (endometrioid histology, histological grade 1 or 2, invasion of less than half of the myometrium, and FIGO stage I) from high-risk disease was assessed. MTV and TLG were significantly higher in patients with higher histological grade (p = 0.0026 and p = 0.034), larger tumour size (p = 0.002 and p = 0.0017), lymphovascular space involvement (LVSI; p = 0.012 and p = 0.0051), myometrial invasion (p = 0.027 and p = 0.031), cervical stromal invasion (p = 0.023 and p = 0.014), ovarian metastasis (p = 0.00022 and p = 0.00034), lymph node metastasis (p < 0.0001 and p < 0.0001), and higher FIGO stage (p = 0.0011 and p = 0.00048). SUVmax was significantly higher in patients with larger tumour size (p = 0.0025), LVSI (p = 0.00023) and myometrial invasion (p < 0.0001). The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) for distinguishing high-risk from low-risk carcinoma were 0.625, 0.829 and 0.797 for SUVmax, MTV and TLG, respectively. AUCs for both MTV and TLG were significantly larger than that for SUVmax (p = 0.0049 and p = 0.021). The optimal TLG cut-off value of 70.2, determined by ROC analysis, was found to have 72.0 % sensitivity and 74.2 % specificity for risk stratification. MTV and TLG of primary endometrial cancer show better correlations with clinicopathological features and are more useful for differentiating high-risk from low-risk carcinoma than SUVmax. (orig.)

Risk Stratification of Acute Kidney Injury Using the Blood Urea Nitrogen/Creatinine Ratio in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

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Takaya, Yoichi; Yoshihara, Fumiki; Yokoyama, Hiroyuki; Kanzaki, Hideaki; Kitakaze, Masafumi; Goto, Yoichi; Anzai, Toshihisa; Yasuda, Satoshi; Ogawa, Hisao; Kawano, Yuhei

2015-01-01

Risk stratification of acute kidney injury (AKI) is important for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). The aim of this study was to determine whether clinical markers, such as the blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio (BUN/Cr) or BUN or creatinine values alone, stratify the risk of AKI for mortality. In all, 371 consecutive ADHF patients were enrolled in the study. AKI was defined as serum creatinine ≥0.3 mg/dl or a 1.5-fold increase in serum creatinine levels within 48 h. During ADHF therapy, AKI occurred in 99 patients; 55 patients died during the 12-month follow-up period. Grouping patients according to AKI and a median BUN/Cr at admission of 22.1 (non-AKI+low BUN/Cr, non-AKI+high BUN/Cr, AKI+low BUN/Cr, and AKI+high BUN/Cr groups) revealed higher mortality in the AKI+high BUN/Cr group (log-rank test, Phigh BUN/Cr and mortality, whereas the association with AKI+low BUN/Cr did not reach statistical significance. When patients were grouped according to AKI and median BUN or creatinine values at admission, AKI was associated with mortality, regardless of BUN or creatinine. The combination of AKI and elevated BUN/Cr, but not BUN or creatinine individually, is linked with an increased risk of mortality in ADHF patients, suggesting that the BUN/Cr is useful for risk stratification of AKI.

Clinical Risk Stratification Optimizes Value of Biomarkers to Predict New-Onset Heart Failure in a Community-Based Cohort

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brouwers, Frank P.; van Gilst, Wiek H.; Damman, Kevin; van den Berg, Maarten P.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Hillege, Hans L.; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J.; van der Harst, Pim; de Boer, Rudolf A.

Background-We aim to identify and quantify the value of biomarkers for incident new-onset heart failure (HF) in a community-based cohort and subgroups based on cardiovascular risk and evaluate the prognostic value of 13 biomarkers for HF with reduced and preserved ejection fraction. Methods and

Prognostic value of left atrial size and function in adults with tetralogy of Fallot.

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Baggen, Vivan J M; Schut, Anne-Rose W; Cuypers, Judith A A E; Witsenburg, Maarten; Boersma, Eric; van den Bosch, Annemien E; Roos-Hesselink, Jolien W

2017-06-01

Left atrial (LA) size predicts cardiovascular outcome in chronic heart failure. Its prognostic value in adults with repaired tetralogy of Fallot (ToF) is unknown. This study therefore investigated the association of LA size and function with cardiovascular events in adults with ToF. Clinically stable adults with ToF who visited the outpatient clinic between 2011 and 2013 underwent echocardiography and were prospectively followed for the occurrence of death, heart failure, hospitalizations, arrhythmia, thromboembolic events, and re-interventions. LA maximal, minimal and pre-A wave volume, area and length were measured on the apical four-chamber view. Total, passive and active emptying fractions were calculated. In total, 134 patients were included (median age 35 [IQR 29-45] years, 65% male, 91% NYHA I). Median follow-up was 40 [IQR 32-47] months. Patients with a dilated LA (≥34mL/m 2 , 43%) were at higher risk of cardiovascular events (n=33, adjusted HR 2.48 [1.09-5.62], P=0.030). Analysis of LA volumes as continuous variables yielded similar conclusions. In addition, LA length (adjusted HR 2.49 [1.51-4.09], P<0.001), total emptying fraction (adjusted HR 0.96 [0.93-0.99], P=0.008), and active emptying fraction (adjusted HR 0.92 [0.87-0.96], P=0.001) were significantly associated with cardiovascular events. Standardized HRs indicated that LA length was the strongest prognostic marker. In addition, none of the patients with a normally sized LA died or developed heart failure. LA size and function can provide relevant prognostic information in clinically stable adults with repaired ToF. Especially LA length may be a valuable additional tool in the risk stratification of these patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular Pathogenesis and Diagnostic, Prognostic and Predictive Molecular Markers in Sarcoma.

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Mariño-Enríquez, Adrián; Bovée, Judith V M G

2016-09-01

Sarcomas are infrequent mesenchymal neoplasms characterized by notable morphological and molecular heterogeneity. Molecular studies in sarcoma provide refinements to morphologic classification, and contribute diagnostic information (frequently), prognostic stratification (rarely) and predict therapeutic response (occasionally). Herein, we summarize the major molecular mechanisms underlying sarcoma pathogenesis and present clinically useful diagnostic, prognostic and predictive molecular markers for sarcoma. Five major molecular alterations are discussed, illustrated with representative sarcoma types, including 1. the presence of chimeric transcription factors, in vascular tumors; 2. abnormal kinase signaling, in gastrointestinal stromal tumor; 3. epigenetic deregulation, in chondrosarcoma, chondroblastoma, and other tumors; 4. deregulated cell survival and proliferation, due to focal copy number alterations, in dedifferentiated liposarcoma; 5. extreme genomic instability, in conventional osteosarcoma as a representative example of sarcomas with highly complex karyotype. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

External validation of leukocytosis and neutrophilia as a prognostic marker in anal carcinoma treated with definitive chemoradiation.

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Schernberg, Antoine; Huguet, Florence; Moureau-Zabotto, Laurence; Chargari, Cyrus; Rivin Del Campo, Eleonor; Schlienger, Michel; Escande, Alexandre; Touboul, Emmanuel; Deutsch, Eric

2017-07-01

To validate the prognostic value of leukocyte disorders in anal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) patients receiving definitive concurrent chemoradiation. Bi-institutional clinical records from consecutive patients treated between 2001 and 2015 with definitive chemoradiation for anal SCC were retrospectively reviewed. Prognostic value of pretreatment leukocyte disorders was examined, with focus on patterns of relapse and survival. Leukocytosis and neutrophilia were defined as leukocyte or neutrophil count exceeding 10G/L and 7G/L, respectively. We identified 133 patients, treated in two institutions. Eight% and 7% displayed baseline leukocytosis and neutrophilia, respectively. Estimated 3-year overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were 88% and 77%, respectively. In univariate analysis, both leukocytosis and neutrophilia were associated with worse OS, PFS (p<0.01), locoregional control (LRC) and Distant Metastasis Control (DMC) (p<0.05), also after stratification by each institution. In multivariate analysis, leukocytosis and neutrophilia remained as independent risk factors associated with poorer OS, PFS, LRC and DMC (p<0.05). This study validates leukocytosis and neutrophilia as independent prognostic factors in anal SCC patients treated with definitive chemoradiation. Although prospective confirmation is warranted, it is suggested that the leukocyte and neutrophil count parameters are clinically relevant biomarkers to be considered for further clinical investigations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Management of acute paracetamol (acetaminophen) toxicity: a standardised proforma improves risk assessment and overall risk stratification by emergency medicine doctors.

Science.gov (United States)

McQuade, David J; Aknuri, Srikanth; Dargan, Paul I; Wood, David M

2012-12-01

Paracetamol (acetaminophen) poisoning is the most common toxicological presentation in the UK. Doctors managing patients with paracetamol poisoning need to assess the risk of their patient developing hepatotoxicity before determining appropriate treatment. Patients deemed to be at 'high risk' of hepatotoxicity have lower treatment thresholds than those deemed to be at 'normal risk'. Errors in this process can lead to harmful or potentially fatal under or over treatment. To determine how well treating doctors assess risk factor status and whether a standardised proforma is useful in the risk stratification process. Retrospective 12-month case note review of all patients presenting with paracetamol poisoning to our large inner-city emergency department. Data were collected on the documentation of risk factors, the presence of a local hospital proforma and treatment outcomes. 249 presentations were analysed and only 59 (23.7%) had full documentation of all the risk factors required to make a complete risk assessment. 56 of the 59 (94.9%) had the local hospital proforma included in the notes; the remaining 3 (5.1%) had full documentation of risk factors despite the absence of a proforma. A local hospital proforma was more likely to be included in the emergency department notes in those with 'adequate documentation' (78 out of 120 (65%)) than for those with 'inadequate documentation' (16 out of 129 (12.4%)); X(2), pparacetamol poisoning.

Risk-adapted stratification and treatment of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schrappe, M.

2008-01-01

Systematic enrolment of children and adolescents with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) into clinical trials has allowed the establishment of prognostic parameters derived from initial diagnostic findings. More important, these trials have significantly contributed to the reduction of disease recurrence as much as to the reduction of acute and late side effects. Some problems that are related to the specificity of the parameters used for risk assessment were not overcome: high tumour load by white blood cell count (WBC), age and (rare) cytogenetic subtypes (e.g. t9;22) may characterise a significant proportion of children and adolescents with high-risk ALL. Most patients who will eventually relapse do not present with characteristic features at initial diagnosis. It appears feasible through careful response assessment to identify these patients at risk of relapse, who present initially without specific features. Earlier trials of the ALL-BFM (Berlin/Frankfurt/Muenster) study group and others have demonstrated that inadequate leukaemic blast reduction in the peripheral blood or bone marrow after the first few days of therapy is highly predictive of treatment failure. Using clone-specific polymerase chain reaction-based detection of minimal residual disease (MRD) as done in trial AIEOP-BFM ALL 2000 allowed a close surveillance of specific treatment elements when applied in MRD positive patients. This may facilitate innovative chemotherapy approaches and a more rational use of allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation. In addition, genetic signatures of treatment response or failure have been identified. (authors)

Global cardiovascular risk stratification among hypertensive patients treated in a Family Health Unit of Parnaíba, Piauí - doi: 10.5020/18061230.2012.p287

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elce de Seixas Nascimento

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Objective: To stratify the global cardiovascular risk among hypertensive patients attended in a Family Health Unit (FHU. Methods: A quantitative, cross-sectional and descriptive study with population of hypertensive patients undergoing treatment in a FHU, module 34, in Parnaíba, Piauí, Brazil, in the period from July to August 2011. The sample consisted of 45 volunteers, selected by free demand conglomerate, who filled a form with questions that support the analysis and Global Cardiovascular Risk stratification (GCR, according to the VI Brazilian Guidelines on Hypertension (VI BGH - 2010, The European Society of Cardiology (ESC and European Society of Hypertension (ESH - 2007. The subjects were then submitted to measurement of blood pressure (BP, waist circumference (WC and body mass index (BMI. Results: The most evident risk factor in the sample was overweight/obesity in 75.5% (n=34, followed by sedentary lifestyle in 73.3% (n=33 and hypercholesterolemia in 55.5% (n=25. The data collected resulted in a stratification in which 84.4% (n=38 presented high added risk and 15.5% (n=7 a very high added risk of presenting cardiovascular events in the next 10 years. Conclusion: The stratification in the population studied indicated high incidence of such factors, pointing to the need of interfering in this population segment, in order to promote changes in lifestyle that generate prevention and control of cardiovascular diseases.

Prognostic Value of Exercise-Stress Echocardiography in Asymptomatic Patients With Aortic Valve Stenosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Goublaire, Coppelia; Melissopoulou, Maria; Lobo, David; Kubota, Naozumi; Verdonk, Constance; Cimadevilla, Claire; Codogno, Isabelle; Brochet, Eric; Vahanian, Alec; Messika-Zeitoun, David

2017-07-19

This study sought to evaluate the prognostic value of mean pressure gradient (MPG) increase and peak systolic pulmonary artery pressure (SPAP) measured during exercise stress echocardiography in asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS). Exercise testing is recommended in asymptomatic AS patients, but the additional value of exercise-stress echocardiography, especially the prognostic value of MPG increase and peak SPAP, is still debated. We enrolled all consecutive patients with pure, isolated, asymptomatic AS and preserved ejection fraction ≥50% and normal SPAP (20 mm Hg and/or SPAP at peak exercise >60 mm Hg). These 112 patients were managed conservatively. During a mean follow-up of 14 ± 8 months, an AS-related event occurred in 30 patients, and 25 patients underwent surgery. Neither MPG increase >20 mm Hg nor peak SPAP >60 mm Hg was predictive of occurrence of AS-related events or aortic valve replacement (all p > 0.20). In contrast, baseline AS severity was an important prognostic factor (all p < 0.01). In this observational study including 148 patients with asymptomatic AS, we confirmed and extended the importance of exercise testing for unveiling functional limitation. More importantly, neither the increase in MPG nor in SPAP at peak exercise was predictive of outcome. Our results do not support the use of these parameters in risk-stratification and clinical management of asymptomatic AS patients. Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Usefulness of ST elevation score by using vector-projected virtual 187-channel ECG for risk stratification in patients with Brugada-type ECG pattern

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shoko Ishikawa

2012-08-01

Conclusion: The ST elevation score in VP-ECG objectively documented the degree of ST elevation in surface ECG in Brugada-type ECG patterns. The ST-elevation score might be useful for risk stratification in patients with asymptomatic Brugada syndrome.

Evaluation of the prognostic value of platelet to lymphocyte ratio in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

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Wang, Yuchen; Attar, Bashar M; Fuentes, Harry E; Jaiswal, Palashkumar; Tafur, Alfonso J

2017-12-01

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasingly common, potentially fatal cancer type globally. Platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) as a biomarker for systemic inflammation has recently been recognized as a valuable prognostic marker in multiple cancer types. The aim of the present study was to assess the prognostic value of PLR in HCC patients and determine the optimal cut-off value for risk stratification. We retrospectively analyzed patients with diagnosis of HCC (screened by ICD-9 code, confirmed with radiographic examination and/or biopsy) at a large public hospital during 15 years (Jan 2000 through July 2015). PLR, among other serology laboratory values were collected at diagnosis of HCC. Its association with overall survival was evaluated with Cox proportional hazard model. Among 270 patients with HCC, 57 (21.1%) patients died within an average follow-up of 11.9 months. PLR at diagnosis was significantly different between survivors and deceased (128.9 vs. 186.7; P=0.003). In multivariate analysis, aspartate transaminase (AST) (HR 2.022, P<0.001) and PLR (HR 1.768, P=0.004) independently predicted mortality. The optimal cut-off value for PLR was determined to be 220 by receiver-operating characteristics curve, and high PLR group had significantly higher mortality (HR 3.42, P<0.001). Our results indicated that elevated PLR at diagnosis above 220 predicted poor prognosis in HCC patients. PLR is a low-cost and convenient tool, which may serve as a useful prognostic marker for HCC.

The Hijdra scale has significant prognostic value for the functional outcome of Fisher grade 3 patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage.

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Bretz, Julia S; Von Dincklage, Falk; Woitzik, Johannes; Winkler, Maren K L; Major, Sebastian; Dreier, Jens P; Bohner, Georg; Scheel, Michael

2017-09-01

Despite its high prevalence among patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) and high risk of delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI), the Fisher grade 3 category remains a poorly studied subgroup. The aim of this cohort study has been to investigate the prognostic value of the Hijdra sum scoring system for the functional outcome in patients with Fisher grade 3 aSAH, in order to improve the risk stratification within this Fisher category. Initial CT scans of 72 prospectively enrolled patients with Fisher grade 3 aSAH were analyzed, and cisternal, ventricular, and total amount of blood were graded according to the Hijdra scale. Additionally, space-occupying subarachnoid blood clots were assessed. Outcome was evaluated after 6 months. Within the subgroup of Fisher grade 3, aSAH patients with an unfavorable outcome showed a significantly larger cisternal Hijdra sum score (HSS: 21.1 ± 5.2) than patients with a favorable outcome (HSS: 17.6 ± 5.9; p = 0.009). However, both the amount of ventricular blood (p = 0.165) and space-occupying blood clots (p = 0.206) appeared to have no prognostic relevance. After adjusting for the patient's age, gender, tobacco use, clinical status at admission, and presence of intracerebral hemorrhage, the cisternal and total HSS remained the only independent parameters included in multivariate logistic regression models to predict functional outcome (p Fisher 3 category. We suggest that the Hijdra scale is a practically useful prognostic instrument for the risk evaluation after aSAH and should be applied more often in the clinical setting.

Self-Reported Stroke Risk Stratification: Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke Study.

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Howard, George; McClure, Leslie A; Moy, Claudia S; Howard, Virginia J; Judd, Suzanne E; Yuan, Ya; Long, D Leann; Muntner, Paul; Safford, Monika M; Kleindorfer, Dawn O

2017-07-01

The standard for stroke risk stratification is the Framingham Stroke Risk Function (FSRF), an equation requiring an examination for blood pressure assessment, venipuncture for glucose assessment, and ECG to determine atrial fibrillation and heart disease. We assess a self-reported stroke risk function (SRSRF) to stratify stroke risk in comparison to the FSRF. Participants from the REGARDS study (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) were evaluated at baseline and followed for incident stroke. The FSRF was calculated using directly assessed stroke risk factors. The SRSRF was calculated from 13 self-reported questions to exclude those with prevalent stroke and assess stroke risk. Proportional hazards analysis was used to assess incident stroke risk using the FSRF and SRSRF. Over an average 8.2-year follow-up, 939 of 23 983 participants had a stroke. The FSRF and SRSRF produced highly correlated risk scores ( r Spearman =0.852; 95% confidence interval, 0.849-0.856); however, the SRSRF had higher discrimination of stroke risk than the FSRF (c SRSRF =0.7266; 95% confidence interval, 0.7076-0.7457; c FSRF =0.7075; 95% confidence interval, 0.6877-0.7273; P =0.0038). The 10-year stroke risk in the highest decile of predicted risk was 11.1% for the FSRF and 13.4% for the SRSRF. A simple self-reported questionnaire can be used to identify those at high risk for stroke better than the gold standard FSRF. This instrument can be used clinically to easily identify individuals at high risk for stroke and also scientifically to identify a subpopulation enriched for stroke risk. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Value of cyclin A immunohistochemistry for cancer risk stratification in Barrett esophagus surveillance: A multicenter case-control study.

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van Olphen, Sophie H; Ten Kate, Fiebo J C; Doukas, Michail; Kastelein, Florine; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Stoop, Hans A; Spaander, Manon C; Looijenga, Leendert H J; Bruno, Marco J; Biermann, Katharina

2016-11-01

The value of endoscopic Barrett esophagus (BE) surveillance based on histological diagnosis of low-grade dysplasia (LGD) remains debated given the lack of adequate risk stratification. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of cyclin A expression and to combine these results with our previously reported immunohistochemical p53, AMACR, and SOX2 data, to identify a panel of biomarkers predicting neoplastic progression in BE.We conducted a case-control study within a prospective cohort of 720 BE patients. BE patients who progressed to high-grade dysplasia (HGD, n = 37) or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC, n = 13), defined as neoplastic progression, were classified as cases and patients without neoplastic progression were classified as controls (n = 575). Cyclin A expression was determined by immunohistochemistry in all 625 patients; these results were combined with the histological diagnosis and our previous p53, AMACR, and SOX2 data in loglinear regression models. Differences in discriminatory ability were quantified as changes in area under the ROC curve (AUC) for predicting neoplastic progression.Cyclin A surface positivity significantly increased throughout the metaplasia-dysplasia-carcinoma sequences and was seen in 10% (107/1050) of biopsy series without dysplasia, 33% (109/335) in LGD, and 69% (34/50) in HGD/EAC. Positive cyclin A expression was associated with an increased risk of neoplastic progression (adjusted relative risk (RR) 2.4; 95% CI: 1.7-3.4). Increases in AUC were substantial for P53 (+0.05), smaller for SOX2 (+0.014), minor for cyclin A (+0.003), and none for AMARC (0.00).Cyclin A immunopositivity was associated with an increased progression risk in BE patients. However, compared to p53 and SOX2, the incremental value of cyclin A was limited. The use of biomarkers has the potential to significantly improve risk stratification in BE.

Invasive breast cancer in Argentine women: association between risk and prognostic factors with antigens of a peptidic and carbohydrate nature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Croce MV

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Sandra O Demichelis, Marina T Isla-Larrain, Luciano Cermignani, Cecilio G Alberdi, Amada Segal-Eiras, María Virginia CroceCentre of Basic and Applied Immunological Research, Faculty of Medical Sciences, National University of La Plata, La Plata, ArgentinaObjective: In breast cancer, several tumor markers have been identified. The marker most extensively associated with breast cancer is MUC1. The objective of the study was to analyze prognostic and risk factors in relation to tumor markers in order to clarify breast cancer biology. A total of 349 primary tumor samples and lymph nodes from breast cancer patients were studied. Risk and prognostic factors were considered. An immunohistochemical approach was applied and an extensive statistical analysis was performed, including frequency analysis and analysis of variance. Correlation among variables was performed with principal component analysis.Results: All the antigens showed an increased expression according to tumor size increment; moreover, sialyl Lewis x expression showed a significant increase in relation to disease stage, whereas Tn and TF presented a positive tendency. Vascular invasion was related to sialyl Lewis x expression and number of metastatic lymph nodes. Taking into account risk factors, when a patient had at least one child, Lewis antigens diminished their expression. In relation to breastfeeding, sialyl Lewis x expression diminished, although its apical expression increased.Conclusion: Associations between MUC1 and carbohydrate antigens and risk and prognostic factors show the complexity of the cellular biological behavior that these antigens modulate in breast cancer.Keywords: breast cancer, Argentine women, risk factors, prognostic factors, antigenic expression

What imaging techniques should be used in primary versus secondary prevention for further risk stratification?

Science.gov (United States)

Schiele, François; Navarese, Eliano Pio; Visoná, Adriana; Ray, Kausik

2017-04-01

An accurate assessment of the cardiovascular (CV) risk of an individual is key for guiding the appropriate treatment strategy for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Although conventional risk factors for CVD are well established, there can be substantial variation in the extent of atherosclerosis between patients. The use of a variety of imaging modalities can be beneficial in the primary prevention stage and in the classification of an individual's CV risk. Therefore, appropriate implementation of these imaging techniques for risk assessment purposes, in line with clinical guidelines, can influence the outcomes of CVD prevention. The expert working group collaborated to review current invasive and non-invasive imaging techniques available to healthcare practitioners and how they can be used in the measurement of preclinical vascular damage and CV risk assessment. After evaluation of the current guideline recommendations and clinical data available, the expert working group collaborated to produce recommendations regarding the use of imaging in the risk stratification in primary prevention, CV risk in peri-acute coronary syndrome and CV risk assessment in secondary prevention. Overall, a variety of both invasive and non-invasive imaging modalities were highlighted by the expert working group as having the potential to assist in the risk assessments of patients at risk of CVD. These imaging techniques can be utilised in both primary and secondary prevention strategies and have the potential to be important risk modifiers, improving the outcome of CV risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prognostic impact of nomogram based on whole tumour size, tumour disappearance ratio on CT and SUVmax on PET in lung adenocarcinoma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Song, So Hee; Lee, Ho Yun; Kim, Eun Young; Lee, Kyung Soo [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology and Center for Imaging Science, Samsung Medical Center, Gangnam-Gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ahn, Joong Hyun [Samsung Biomedical Research Institute, Biostatistics Team, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Geewon [Pusan National University Hospital, Pusan National University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology and Medical Research Institute, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Joon Young [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Departments of Nuclear Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Jun [Catholic University of Korea, Department of Pathology, Inchun St. Mary' s Hospital, College of Medicine, Inchun (Korea, Republic of); Han, Joungho [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Department of Pathology, Samsung Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kwon, O.J. [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Division of Respiratory and Critical Medicine of the Department of Internal Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Hong Kwan; Choi, Yong Soo; Kim, Jhingook; Shim, Young Mog [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2016-06-15

Lung adenocarcinoma frequently manifests as subsolid nodules, and the solid portion and ground-glass-opacity (GGO) portion on CT have different prognostic significance. Therefore, current T descriptor, defined as the whole tumour diameter without discrimination between solid and GGO, is insufficient. We aimed to determine the prognostic significance of solid tumour size and attempt to include prognostic factors such as tumour disappearance rate (TDR) on CT and SUVmax on PET/CT. Five hundred and ninety-five patients with completely resected lung adenocarcinoma were analyzed. We developed a nomogram using whole tumour size, TDR, and SUVmax. External validation was performed in another 102 patients. In patients with tumours measuring ≤2 cm and >2 to 3 cm, disease free survival (DFS) was significantly associated with solid tumour size (P < 0.001), but not with whole tumour size (P = 0.052). Developed nomogram was significantly superior to the conventional T stage (area under the curve of survival ROC; P = 0.013 by net reclassification improvement) in stratification of patient survival. In the external validation group, significant difference was noted in DFS according to proposed T stage (P = 0.009). Nomogram-based T descriptors provide better prediction of survival and assessment of individual risks than conventional T descriptors. (orig.)

Refining prognostic stratification of human papillomavirus-related oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma: different prognosis between T1 and T2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Su Min; Lee, Sang Wook; Park, Sun Min [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); and others

2017-09-15

To validate the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control (AJCC/UICC) TNM staging system for human papillomavirus (HPV)-related oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) and investigate whether a modified classification better reflects the prognosis. Medical records of patients diagnosed with non-metastatic HPV-related OPSCC between 2010 and 2016 at a single institution were retrospectively reviewed. HPV status was determined by immunohistochemical analysis of p16 and/or HPV DNA polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We reclassified TNM stage T0-1 and N0-1 as group A, T2-3 or N2 as B, and T4 or N3 as C. Survival analysis according to 8th AJCC/UICC TNM staging and the modified classification was performed. Of 383 OPSCC patients, 211 were positive for HPV DNA PCR or p16. After exclusion, 184 patients were included in this analysis. Median age was 56 years (range, 31 to 81 years). Most primary tumors were in the palatine tonsil (148 tumors, 80%). The eighth AJCC/UICC TNM classification could not differentiate between stage I and II (p = 0.470) or II and III (p = 0.209). Applying modified grouping, the 3-year overall survival rate of group A was significantly higher than that of group B and C (98% vs. 91%, p = 0.039 and 98% vs. 78%, p < 0.001, respectively). Differentiation between group B and C was marginally significant (p = 0.053). The 8th AJCC/UICC TNM staging system did not clearly distinguish the prognosis of stage II from that of other stages. Including the T2N0-1 group in stage II may improve prognostic stratification.

Maximum tumor diameter is not an independent prognostic factor in high-risk localized prostate cancer

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oort, van I.M.; Witjes, J.A.; Kok, D.E.G.; Kiemeney, L.A.; Hulsbergen-van de Kaa, C.A.

2008-01-01

Previous studies suggest that maximum tumor diameter (MTD) is a predictor of recurrence in prostate cancer (PC). This study investigates the prognostic value of MTD for biochemical recurrence (BCR) in patients with PC, after radical prostatectomy (RP), with emphasis on high-risk localized prostate

Risk stratification in cardiovascular disease primary prevention - scoring systems, novel markers, and imaging techniques.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Zannad, Faiez

2012-04-01

The aim of this paper is to review and discuss current methods of risk stratification for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, emerging biomarkers, and imaging techniques, and their relative merits and limitations. This report is based on discussions that took place among experts in the area during a special CardioVascular Clinical Trialists workshop organized by the European Society of Cardiology Working Group on Cardiovascular Pharmacology and Drug Therapy in September 2009. Classical risk factors such as blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels remain the cornerstone of risk estimation in primary prevention but their use as a guide to management is limited by several factors: (i) thresholds for drug treatment vary with the available evidence for cost-effectiveness and benefit-to-risk ratios; (ii) assessment may be imprecise; (iii) residual risk may remain, even with effective control of dyslipidemia and hypertension. Novel measures include C-reactive protein, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) , genetic markers, and markers of subclinical organ damage, for which there are varying levels of evidence. High-resolution ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging to assess carotid atherosclerotic lesions have potential but require further validation, standardization, and proof of clinical usefulness in the general population. In conclusion, classical risk scoring systems are available and inexpensive but have a number of limitations. Novel risk markers and imaging techniques may have a place in drug development and clinical trial design. However, their additional value above and beyond classical risk factors has yet to be determined for risk-guided therapy in CVD prevention.

Exercise thallium-201 scintigraphy in men with nondiagnostic exercise electrocardiograms. Prognostic implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iskandrian, A.S.; Hakki, A.H.; Kane-Marsch, S.

1986-01-01

We studied the prognostic value of exercise thallium-201 imaging in 196 men with suspected or known coronary artery disease who had nondiagnostic exercise electrocardiograms. The perfusion images in each of three projections were divided into three segments; each segment was assessed for perfusion defects (fixed or reversible). There were 12 cardiac events at a mean follow-up of 15 months (range, one to 66 months). Of those, five patients died of cardiac causes and seven had nonfatal acute myocardial infarctions (MIs). Only the number of perfusion defects significantly predicted cardiac events; clinical presentation, history of MI, presence of Q-wave MI, exercise duration, and exercise heart rate and double product did not predict cardiac events or add to information provided by the number of defects. Furthermore, actuarial life-table analysis showed that patients with three or more perfusion defects had significantly worse prognoses than patients with fewer than three defects. Exercise thallium-201 imaging helps in risk stratification of men with nondiagnostic exercise electrocardiograms

Tumour functional sphericity from PET images. Prognostic value in NSCLC and impact of delineation method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hatt, Mathieu; Laurent, Baptiste; Fayad, Hadi; Jaouen, Vincent; Visvikis, Dimitris [LaTIM, INSERM, UMR 1101, IBSAM, UBO, UBL, Brest (France); Cheze Le Rest, Catherine [LaTIM, INSERM, UMR 1101, IBSAM, UBO, UBL, Brest (France); CHU Miletrie, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Poitiers (France)

2018-04-15

Sphericity has been proposed as a parameter for characterizing PET tumour volumes, with complementary prognostic value with respect to SUV and volume in both head and neck cancer and lung cancer. The objective of the present study was to investigate its dependency on tumour delineation and the resulting impact on its prognostic value. Five segmentation methods were considered: two thresholds (40% and 50% of SUV{sub max}), ant colony optimization, fuzzy locally adaptive Bayesian (FLAB), and gradient-aided region-based active contour. The accuracy of each method in extracting sphericity was evaluated using a dataset of 176 simulated, phantom and clinical PET images of tumours with associated ground truth. The prognostic value of sphericity and its complementary value with respect to volume for each segmentation method was evaluated in a cohort of 87 patients with stage II/III lung cancer. Volume and associated sphericity values were dependent on the segmentation method. The correlation between segmentation accuracy and sphericity error was moderate (ρ from 0.24 to 0.57). The accuracy in measuring sphericity was not dependent on volume (ρ < 0.4). In the patients with lung cancer, sphericity had prognostic value, although lower than that of volume, except for that derived using FLAB for which when combined with volume showed a small improvement over volume alone (hazard ratio 2.67, compared with 2.5). Substantial differences in patient prognosis stratification were observed depending on the segmentation method used. Tumour functional sphericity was found to be dependent on the segmentation method, although the accuracy in retrieving the true sphericity was not dependent on tumour volume. In addition, even accurate segmentation can lead to an inaccurate sphericity value, and vice versa. Sphericity had similar or lower prognostic value than volume alone in the patients with lung cancer, except when determined using the FLAB method for which there was a small

Adenosine stress and exercise 99Tcm-MIBI myocardial perfusion imaging in the diagnosis and risk stratification of patients with unstable angina

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jia Peng; Guo Wanhua; Xu Shoulin; Feng Xuefeng

2008-01-01

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical value of adenosine stress or exercise 99 Tc m -methoxyisobutylisonitrile (MIBI) myocardial perfusion imaging in the diagnosis and risk stratification of patients with unstable angina. Methods: Eighty-seven hospitalized patients with unstable angina [54 men and 33 women, aged of (56.5±12.5) years] underwent adenosine stress or exercise myocardial perfusion imaging and coronary angiography. Patients were followed up. Results: Fifty-seven patients had abnormal myocardial perfusion imaging and significant coronary artery stenosis. Ten patients had abnormal myocardial perfusion imaging but normal coronary angiography. Eight patients had normal myocardial perfusion imaging but significant coronary artery stenosis. Twelve patients had normal myocardial perfusion imaging and normal coronary angiography. Patients with abnormal myocardial perfusion imaging had worse prognosis. There was relationship between cardiac events and the extent and severity of myocardial ischemia. Conclusion: Adenosine stress and exercise myocardial perfusion imaging is of important clinical value in the diagnosis and risk stratification of patients with unstable angina. (authors)

The prognostic value of derived neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio in oesophageal cancer treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Samantha; Hurt, Christopher; Grenader, Tal; Mukherjee, Somnath; Bridgewater, John; Crosby, Thomas

2017-10-01

The derived neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (dNLR) is a validated prognostic biomarker for cancer survival but has not been extensively studied in locally-advanced oesophageal cancer treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT). We aimed to identify the prognostic value of dNLR in patients recruited to the SCOPE1 trial. 258 patients were randomised to receive dCRT±cetuximab. Kaplan-Meier's curves and both univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were calculated for overall survival (OS), progression free survival (PFS), local PFS inside the radiation volume (LPFSi), local PFS outside the radiation volume (LPFSo), and distant PFS (DPFS). An elevated pre-treatment dNLR≥2 was significantly associated with decreased OS in univariable (HR 1.74 [95% CI 1.29-2.35], p<0.001) and multivariable analyses (HR 1.64 [1.17-2.29], p=0.004). Median OS was 36months (95% CI 27.8-42.4) if dNLR<2 and 18.4months (95% CI 14.1-24.9) if dNLR≥2. All measures of PFS were also significantly reduced with an elevated dNLR. dNLR was prognostic for OS in cases of squamous cell carcinoma with a non-significant trend for adenocarcinoma/undifferentiated tumours. An elevated pre-treatment dNLR may be an independent prognostic biomarker for OS and PFS in oesophageal cancer patients treated with definitive CRT. dNLR is a simple, inexpensive and readily available tool for risk-stratification and should be considered for use in future oesophageal cancer clinical trials. The SCOPE1 trial was an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial [number 47718479]. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tumour functional sphericity from PET images: prognostic value in NSCLC and impact of delineation method.

Science.gov (United States)

Hatt, Mathieu; Laurent, Baptiste; Fayad, Hadi; Jaouen, Vincent; Visvikis, Dimitris; Le Rest, Catherine Cheze

2018-04-01

Sphericity has been proposed as a parameter for characterizing PET tumour volumes, with complementary prognostic value with respect to SUV and volume in both head and neck cancer and lung cancer. The objective of the present study was to investigate its dependency on tumour delineation and the resulting impact on its prognostic value. Five segmentation methods were considered: two thresholds (40% and 50% of SUV max ), ant colony optimization, fuzzy locally adaptive Bayesian (FLAB), and gradient-aided region-based active contour. The accuracy of each method in extracting sphericity was evaluated using a dataset of 176 simulated, phantom and clinical PET images of tumours with associated ground truth. The prognostic value of sphericity and its complementary value with respect to volume for each segmentation method was evaluated in a cohort of 87 patients with stage II/III lung cancer. Volume and associated sphericity values were dependent on the segmentation method. The correlation between segmentation accuracy and sphericity error was moderate (|ρ| from 0.24 to 0.57). The accuracy in measuring sphericity was not dependent on volume (|ρ| value, although lower than that of volume, except for that derived using FLAB for which when combined with volume showed a small improvement over volume alone (hazard ratio 2.67, compared with 2.5). Substantial differences in patient prognosis stratification were observed depending on the segmentation method used. Tumour functional sphericity was found to be dependent on the segmentation method, although the accuracy in retrieving the true sphericity was not dependent on tumour volume. In addition, even accurate segmentation can lead to an inaccurate sphericity value, and vice versa. Sphericity had similar or lower prognostic value than volume alone in the patients with lung cancer, except when determined using the FLAB method for which there was a small improvement in stratification when the parameters were combined.

Long-term prognostic implications of myocardial perfusion imaging in octogenarians: an all-comer, cohort study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Katsikis, Athanasios [Onassis Cardiac Surgery Center, Nuclear Medicine Department, Athens (Greece); 401 General Military Hospital of Athens, Cardiology Department, Athens (Greece); Theodorakos, Athanasios; Manira, Vassiliki; Koutelou, Maria [Onassis Cardiac Surgery Center, Nuclear Medicine Department, Athens (Greece); Papaioannou, Spyridon [Athens Naval Hospital, Cardiology Department, Athens (Greece); Kolovou, Genovefa; Voudris, Vassilios [Onassis Cardiac Surgery Center, Cardiology Department, Athens (Greece)

2017-08-15

Evaluation of the long-term prognostic value of myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) in octogenarians. Six hundred and twenty-nine octogenarians [51% previous myocardial infarction (MI) or revascularization] who underwent single-isotope MPI (78% {sup 201}Tl, 22% {sup 99m}Tc-tetrofosmin) with exercise (38% Bruce, 2% leg ergometry) or pharmacologic (58% adenosine, 2% dobutamine) stress were studied. All patients had LVEF determined by echocardiography within 1 month from MPI. Myocardial perfusion scoring was performed on a 17-segment LV-model with a 5-point grading system and three summed stress score (SSS)-based risk categories were formed [high-(SSS > 12), low-(SSS < 4), medium]. Prospective follow-up was performed to document all-cause (ACD), cardiac death (CD), MI, and revascularization. Revascularization was used to censor follow-up in survival analysis regarding ACD, CD, and CD/MI. For analysis of the CD, MI, or late revascularization (LR) composite, only revascularizations within 3 months from MPI (early revascularizations) were used for censoring. After 9.3 years there were 187 ACDs, 86 CDs, 28 MIs, and 77 revascularizations, including 28 early revascularizations. Adjusting for LVEF and stress-modality type, SSS was identified as an independent predictor of ACD [HR 1.03 (1.01-1.05)], CD [HR 1.05 (1.03-1.08)], CD,MI [HR 1.05 (1.02-1.07)], and CD,MI or LR [HR 1.05 (1.03-1.07)] (p ≤ 0.001 in all cases). Increased lung uptake had independent prognostic value only for the CD, MI, or LR end-point [HR 3 (1.2-7.7), p = 0.02]. Survival modeling demonstrated that LVEF and SSS, but not non-perfusion scintigraphic data provided incremental prognostic value over pre-test available clinical and historical information for all end-points. Differences between Kaplan-Meier survival curves of SSS-based risk groups were significant for all end-points (p < 0.001 in all cases). In octogenarians, MPI provides effective long-term risk stratification, regardless of stress type used

Preventing tomorrow's sudden cardiac death today: part I: Current data on risk stratification for sudden cardiac death.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Khatib, Sana M; Sanders, Gillian D; Bigger, J Thomas; Buxton, Alfred E; Califf, Robert M; Carlson, Mark; Curtis, Anne; Curtis, Jeptha; Fain, Eric; Gersh, Bernard J; Gold, Michael R; Haghighi-Mood, Ali; Hammill, Stephen C; Healey, Jeff; Hlatky, Mark; Hohnloser, Stefan; Kim, Raymond J; Lee, Kerry; Mark, Daniel; Mianulli, Marcus; Mitchell, Brent; Prystowsky, Eric N; Smith, Joseph; Steinhaus, David; Zareba, Wojciech

2007-06-01

Accurate and timely prediction of sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a necessary prerequisite for effective prevention and therapy. Although the largest number of SCD events occurs in patients without overt heart disease, there are currently no tests that are of proven predictive value in this population. Efforts in risk stratification for SCD have focused primarily on predicting SCD in patients with known structural heart disease. Despite the ubiquity of tests that have been purported to predict SCD vulnerability in such patients, there is little consensus on which test, in addition to the left ventricular ejection fraction, should be used to determine which patients will benefit from an implantable cardioverter defibrillator. On July 20 and 21, 2006, a group of experts representing clinical cardiology, cardiac electrophysiology, biostatistics, economics, and health policy were joined by representatives of the US Food and Drug administration, Centers for Medicare Services, Agency for Health Research and Quality, the Heart Rhythm Society, and the device and pharmaceutical industry for a round table meeting to review current data on strategies of risk stratification for SCD, to explore methods to translate these strategies into practice and policy, and to identify areas that need to be addressed by future research studies. The meeting was organized by the Duke Center for the Prevention of SCD at the Duke Clinical Research Institute and was funded by industry participants. This article summarizes the presentations and discussions that occurred at that meeting.

Cardiac stress test as a risk-stratification tool for posttransplant cardiac outcomes in diabetic kidney transplant recipients.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Neeraj; Parikh, Samir; Bhatt, Udayan; Vonvisger, Jon; Nori, Uday; Hasan, Ayesha; Samavedi, Srinivas; Andreoni, Kenneth; Henry, Mitchell; Pelletier, Ronald; Rajab, Amer; Elkhammas, Elmahdi; Pesavento, Todd

2012-12-27

The utility of cardiac stress testing as a risk-stratification tool before kidney transplantation remains debatable owing to discordance with coronary angiography and outcome yields at different centers. We conducted a retrospective study of 273 diabetic kidney transplant recipients from 2006 to 2010. By protocol, all diabetic patients underwent pharmacological radionucleotide stress test or dobutamine stress echocardiography before transplant. We compared the 1-year cardiac outcomes between those with negative stress test results and those with positive stress test results. Patients with a positive stress test result (n=67) underwent coronary angiogram, and significant coronary artery disease (≥70% coronary stenosis) was found in 35 (52.2%) patients. Of the latter, 32 (91.4%) underwent cardiac revascularization (24 underwent cardiac stenting and 8 underwent coronary artery bypass grafting). The rest (n=35) were treated medically. Within 1 year after transplant, the group with positive stress test results experienced more cardiac events (34.3% vs. 3.9%, P<0.001) including acute myocardial infarction (22.4% vs. 3.4%, P<0.001) and ventricular arrhythmias (8.9% vs. 0.05%, P=0.001), higher all-cause mortality (19.4% vs. 4.8%, P<0.001), and cardiac mortality (17.9% vs. 0.9%, P<0.001) compared with the group with negative stress test results. In this diabetic population, stress testing showed positive and negative predictive values of 34.3% and 96.1%, respectively. Pharmacological cardiac stress testing provided excellent risk stratification in diabetic kidney transplant recipients.

D-dimer testing for safe exclusion and risk stratification in patients with acute pulmonary embolism in primary care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhou Yin

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Safe exclusion and risk stratification are currently recommended for the initial management of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (APE. The aim of this study was to assess the safe exclusion and risk stratification value of D-dimer (DD for APE when tested at the beginning of admission. Materials and Methods: All consecutive Chinese APE patients and controls were recruited from January 2010 to December 2012. All measurements of serum indexes were made in duplicate and blinded to the patients′ status. All the 40 patients with the first episode of APE were confirmed by multi-detector computed tomographic pulmonary angiography. The plasma prothrombin time (PT, activated partial thromboplastin time, thrombin time, fibrinogen, and DD levels were measured within 24 h of admission. We used the Mann-Whitney U-test to determine the differences between groups and drew receiver operator characteristic curve to evaluate the indexes′ value in the APE screening. Results: The PT and DD in the APE group were significantly higher than those in the disease control group (P 1820 μg/L as cut-off value, the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value was 82.5%, 75.2%, 56.9%, and 91.6%, respectively. Conclusion: The patients with APE showed significant higher DD levels compared with disease controls, suggesting a negative qualitative DD test result can safely and efficiently exclude APE in primary care.

Survey on Prognostics Techniques for Updating Initiating Event Frequency in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hyeonmin; Heo, Gyunyoung

2015-01-01

One of the applications using PSA is a risk monito. The risk monitoring is real-time analysis tool to decide real-time risk based on real state of components and systems. In order to utilize more effective, the methodologies that manipulate the data from Prognostics was suggested. Generally, Prognostic comprehensively includes not only prognostic but also monitoring and diagnostic. The prognostic method must need condition monitoring. In case of applying PHM to a PSA model, the latest condition of NPPs can be identified more clearly. For reducing the conservatism and uncertainties, we suggested the concept that updates the initiating event frequency in a PSA model by using Bayesian approach which is one of the prognostics techniques before. From previous research, the possibility that PSA is updated by using data more correctly was found. In reliability theory, the Bathtub curve divides three parts (infant failure, constant and random failure, wareout failure). In this paper, in order to investigate the applicability of prognostic methods in updating quantitative data in a PSA model, the OLM acceptance criteria from NUREG, the concept of how to using prognostic in PSA, and the enabling prognostic techniques are suggested. The prognostic has the motivation that improved the predictive capabilities using existing monitoring systems, data, and information will enable more accurate equipment risk assessment for improved decision-making

Survey on Prognostics Techniques for Updating Initiating Event Frequency in PSA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Hyeonmin; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

One of the applications using PSA is a risk monito. The risk monitoring is real-time analysis tool to decide real-time risk based on real state of components and systems. In order to utilize more effective, the methodologies that manipulate the data from Prognostics was suggested. Generally, Prognostic comprehensively includes not only prognostic but also monitoring and diagnostic. The prognostic method must need condition monitoring. In case of applying PHM to a PSA model, the latest condition of NPPs can be identified more clearly. For reducing the conservatism and uncertainties, we suggested the concept that updates the initiating event frequency in a PSA model by using Bayesian approach which is one of the prognostics techniques before. From previous research, the possibility that PSA is updated by using data more correctly was found. In reliability theory, the Bathtub curve divides three parts (infant failure, constant and random failure, wareout failure). In this paper, in order to investigate the applicability of prognostic methods in updating quantitative data in a PSA model, the OLM acceptance criteria from NUREG, the concept of how to using prognostic in PSA, and the enabling prognostic techniques are suggested. The prognostic has the motivation that improved the predictive capabilities using existing monitoring systems, data, and information will enable more accurate equipment risk assessment for improved decision-making.

BRAF mutation in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma – additional marker of risk stratification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dmitriy Yuriyevich Semyonov

2014-11-01

Full Text Available BackgroundPapillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC is heterogeneous group of tumor less than 1 cm in the diameter. The volume of surgical treatment stay unstable because unclear biological potential of PTMC.AimThe aim of our study was to assess the utility of BRAF gene mutation as preoperative additional marker of risk stratification.Materials and methodsWe include 44 patient who were operated in general surgery department Pavlov State Medical University from 2001 to 2013. In all 44 cases BRAF gene mutation was detected and compared with clinic-morphological features (multifocality, invasive growth, lymph node metastasis, recurrence retrospectivelyResultsIn our study the frequency of BRAF gene mutation was 68.2%. On multivariate regression analysis the presence of bilateral tumoural foci, lymph node metastasis and the presence of capsular invasion were significantly related to BRAF positive gene status.ConclusionsThus, appropriate volume for the BRAF positive PTMC is thyroidectomy with central compartment lymph node dissection.

External validation of prognostic models to predict risk of gestational diabetes mellitus in one Dutch cohort: prospective multicentre cohort study.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lamain-de Ruiter, M.; Kwee, A.; Naaktgeboren, C.A.; Groot, I. de; Evers, I.M.; Groenendaal, F.; Hering, Y.R.; Huisjes, A.J.M.; Kirpestein, C.; Monincx, W.M.; Siljee, J.E.; Zelfde, A. van't; Oirschot, C.M. van; Vankan-Buitelaar, S.A.; Vonk, M.A.A.W.; Wiegers, T.A.; Zwart, J.J.; Franx, A.; Moons, K.G.M.; Koster, M.P.H.

2016-01-01

Objective: To perform an external validation and direct comparison of published prognostic models for early prediction of the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus, including predictors applicable in the first trimester of pregnancy. Design: External validation of all published prognostic models in

Prognostic model based on nailfold capillaroscopy for identifying Raynaud's phenomenon patients at high risk for the development of a scleroderma spectrum disorder: PRINCE (prognostic index for nailfold capillaroscopic examination).

Science.gov (United States)

Ingegnoli, Francesca; Boracchi, Patrizia; Gualtierotti, Roberta; Lubatti, Chiara; Meani, Laura; Zahalkova, Lenka; Zeni, Silvana; Fantini, Flavio

2008-07-01

To construct a prognostic index based on nailfold capillaroscopic examinations that is capable of predicting the 5-year transition from isolated Raynaud's phenomenon (RP) to RP secondary to scleroderma spectrum disorders (SSDs). The study involved 104 consecutive adult patients with a clinical history of isolated RP, and the index was externally validated in another cohort of 100 patients with the same characteristics. Both groups were followed up for 1-8 years. Six variables were examined because of their potential prognostic relevance (branching, enlarged and giant loops, capillary disorganization, microhemorrhages, and the number of capillaries). The only factors that played a significant prognostic role were the presence of giant loops (hazard ratio [HR] 2.64, P = 0.008) and microhemorrhages (HR 2.33, P = 0.01), and the number of capillaries (analyzed as a continuous variable). The adjusted prognostic role of these factors was evaluated by means of multivariate regression analysis, and the results were used to construct an algorithm-based prognostic index. The model was internally and externally validated. Our prognostic capillaroscopic index identifies RP patients in whom the risk of developing SSDs is high. This model is a weighted combination of different capillaroscopy parameters that allows physicians to stratify RP patients easily, using a relatively simple diagram to deduce the prognosis. Our results suggest that this index could be used in clinical practice, and its further inclusion in prospective studies will undoubtedly help in exploring its potential in predicting treatment response.

The adjusted Global AntiphosPholipid Syndrome Score (aGAPSS) for risk stratification in young APS patients with acute myocardial infarction.

Science.gov (United States)

Radin, M; Schreiber, K; Costanzo, P; Cecchi, I; Roccatello, D; Baldovino, S; Bazzan, M; Cuadrado, M J; Sciascia, S

2017-08-01

Young adults with acute myocardial infarction are a critical group to examine for the purpose of risk factor stratification and modification. In this study we aimed to assess the clinical utility of the adjusted Global AntiphosPholipid Syndrome Score (aGAPSS) for the risk stratification of acute myocardial infarction in a cohort of young patients with antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). The analysis included 83 consecutive APS patients (≤50years old) who presented with arterial or venous thromboembolic events. Data on cardiovascular risk factors and antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) positivity were retrospectively collected. The aGAPSS was calculated by adding the points corresponding to the risk factors, based on a linear transformation derived from the ß-regression coefficient as follows: 3 for hyperlipidaemia, 1 for arterial hypertension, 5 for aCL IgG/IgM, 4 for anti-b2 glycoprotein I IgG/IgM and 4 for LA. Higher aGAPSS values were observed in patients with acute myocardial infarction when compared to the others [mean aGAPSS 11.9 (S.D. 4.15, range 4-18) Vs. mean aGAPSS 9.2 (S.D. 5.1, range 1-17); T test: psyndrome compared to patients with a history of peripheral or cerebrovascular arterial thrombotic events [mean aGAPSS 11.9 (S.D. 4.15, range 4-18) Vs. mean aGAPSS 6.7 (S.D. 5.7, range 1-17); T test: P<0.005]. The aGAPSS is based upon a quantitative score and could aid risk stratifying APS patients younger than 50years for the likelihood of developing coronary thrombotic events and may guide pharmacological treatment for high-risk patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of chromosome alterations, genetic mutations and clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) on the classification and risk stratification of MDS.

Science.gov (United States)

Ganguly, Bani Bandana; Banerjee, Debasis; Agarwal, Mohan B

2018-03-01

The advent of technological development has undoubtedly advanced biological and molecular inputs for better understanding the heterogeneous hematopoietic pre-malignant disorder of the stem cells known as myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Chromosomal rearrangements, including del(3q/5q/7q/11q/12p/20q), loss of 5/7/Y, trisomy 8/19, i(17q), etc. frequently detected in MDS with variable frequencies and combinations, are the integral components of the 5-tier risk-stratification and WHO-2016 classification. Observations on mutations in genes involved in RNA-splicing, DNA methylation, chromatin modification, transcription factor, signal transduction/kinases, RAS pathway, cohesin complex, DNA repair and other pathways have given insights in independent effects and biological interaction of co-occurrence on disease-phenotype and treatment outcome. However, recent concepts of clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) and idiopathic cytopenia of undetermined significance (ICUS) have urged a re-definition of mutational events in non-clonal cytopenia and non-MDS healthy elderly but with a higher risk of overt leukemia. Considering gene mutations, chromosomal alterations, CHIP, ICUS and their significance in classification and risk-scoring certainly presents a comprehensive picture of disease-phenotype towards better understanding of MDS-pathogenesis, its evolution to AML and its response to therapeutic agents. The present review summarizes chromosomal and gene mutations, co-existence of mutational complexity, and WHO-2016 classification and risk-stratifications of MDS to facilitate a better understanding of its pathogenesis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic factors in Chinese patients with prostate cancer receiving primary androgen deprivation therapy: validation of Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (J-CAPRA) score and impacts of pre-existing obesity and diabetes mellitus.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Meng-Bo; Yang, Tian; Hu, Ji-Meng; Zhu, Wen-Hui; Jiang, Hao-Wen; Ding, Qiang

2018-06-01

Our aim was to determine the prognostic factors in Chinese patients with prostate cancer receiving primary androgen deprivation therapy (PADT), validate the Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (J-CAPRA) score, and investigate the impacts of pre-existing obesity and diabetes mellitus (DM). The study enrolled Chinese patients diagnosed with prostatic adenocarcinoma and treated with bilateral orchiectomy as PADT at Huashan Hospital, Fudan University (Shanghai, China), from January 2003 to December 2015. The overall survival (OS) and prognostic value of J-CAPRA score, pre-existing obesity, DM, and various clinicopathological variables were analyzed. Of the 435 patients enrolled, 174 (40.0%) deaths occurred during follow-up; 3- and 5-year OS were 74.0 and 58.9%, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified that higher Gleason score and metastasis were both correlated with worse OS and that higher J-CAPRA score was correlated with worse OS [hazard ratio (HR) 1.110, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.035-1.190, P = 0.003). Different risk categories based on J-CAPRA score showed good stratification in OS (log-rank P = 0.015). In subgroup analysis, pre-existing obesity as a protective factor in younger patients (age ≤ 65, HR 0.271, 95% CI 0.075-0.980, P = 0.046) and pre-existing DM as a risk factor in older patients (> 75, HR 1.854, 95% CI 1.026-3.351, P = 0.041) for OS were recognized, and the prediction accuracy of J-CAPRA was elevated after incorporating pre-existing obesity and DM. The J-CAPRA score presented with good OS differentiation among Chinese patients under PADT. Younger patients (age ≤ 65) had better OS with pre-existing obesity, while older patients (age > 75) had worse OS with pre-existing DM.

Prognostic value of proliferation in pleomorphic soft tissue sarcomas

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seinen, Jojanneke M; Jönsson, Mats; Bendahl, Pär-Ola O

2012-01-01

= 1.6-12.1), Top2a (hazard ratio = 2.2, CI = 1.2-3.5) and high S-phase fraction (hazard ratio = 1.8, CI = 1.2-3.7) significantly correlated with risk for metastasis. When combined with currently used prognostic factors, Ki-67, S-phase fraction and Top2a fraction contributed to refined identification...... of prognostic risk groups. Proliferation, as assessed by expression of Ki-67 and Top2a and evaluation of S-phase fraction and applied to statistical decision-tree models, provides prognostic information in soft tissue sarcomas of the extremity and trunk wall. Though proliferation contributes independently...... to currently applied prognosticators, its role is particularly strong when few other factors are available, which suggests a role in preoperative decision-making related to identification of high-risk individuals who would benefit from neoadjuvant therapy....

Correction of population stratification in large multi-ethnic association studies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Serre

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The vast majority of genetic risk factors for complex diseases have, taken individually, a small effect on the end phenotype. Population-based association studies therefore need very large sample sizes to detect significant differences between affected and non-affected individuals. Including thousands of affected individuals in a study requires recruitment in numerous centers, possibly from different geographic regions. Unfortunately such a recruitment strategy is likely to complicate the study design and to generate concerns regarding population stratification.We analyzed 9,751 individuals representing three main ethnic groups - Europeans, Arabs and South Asians - that had been enrolled from 154 centers involving 52 countries for a global case/control study of acute myocardial infarction. All individuals were genotyped at 103 candidate genes using 1,536 SNPs selected with a tagging strategy that captures most of the genetic diversity in different populations. We show that relying solely on self-reported ethnicity is not sufficient to exclude population stratification and we present additional methods to identify and correct for stratification.Our results highlight the importance of carefully addressing population stratification and of carefully "cleaning" the sample prior to analyses to obtain stronger signals of association and to avoid spurious results.

Prognostic value of tripartite motif containing 29 expression in patients with gastric cancer following surgical resection.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chenghu; Zhou, Yi; Chen, Beibei; Yuan, Weiwei; Huang, Jinxi

2018-04-01

Tripartite motif containing 29 (TRIM29) dysregulation serves an important function in the progression of numerous types of cancer, but its function in the prognosis of patients with gastric cancer remains unknown. The present study assessed the prognostic value of TRIM29 in patients with gastric cancer following surgical resection. A total of 243 fresh gastric adenocarcinoma and adjacent normal tissues were continuously retrieved from patients who underwent curative surgery for gastric cancer at the Cancer Hospital of Henan Province (Zhengzhou, China) between January 2005 and December 2011. The reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction was performed to assess TRIM29 expression. The association between TRIM29 expression and clinicopathological features and prognosis was subsequently evaluated. The results of the present study revealed that the expression of TRIM29 was increased in the gastric cancer tissues compared with the normal adjacent tissues, and that upregulated expression of TRIM29 was associated with tumor cell differentiation, tumor stage, lymph node metastasis, and tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage. In the training and validation data, high TRIM29 expression was associated with poor overall survival in patients with gastric cancer. Furthermore, multivariate analysis identified that TRIM29 expression was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival, in addition to TNM stage and Lauren classification. Combining TRIM29 expression with the TNM staging system generated a novel predictive model that exhibited improved prognostic accuracy for overall survival in patients with gastric cancer. The present study revealed that TRIM29 was an independent adverse prognostic factor in patients with gastric cancer. Incorporating TRIM29 expression level into the TNM staging system may improve risk stratification and render prognosis more accurate in patients with gastric cancer.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Significance of DSM-5 Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome in Services for Individuals at Ultra High Risk for Psychosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Fusar-Poli, Paolo; De Micheli, Andrea; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Davies, Cathy; Ramella-Cravaro, Valentina; Oliver, Dominic; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Rocchetti, Matteo; Gavaghan, Lauren; Patel, Rashmi; McGuire, Philip

2018-02-15

The diagnostic and prognostic significance of the DSM-5-defined Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome (DSM-5-APS) in individuals undergoing an ultra high risk (UHR) clinical assessment for suspicion of psychosis risk is unknown. Prospective cohort study including all consecutive help-seeking individuals undergoing both a DSM-5-APS and a Comprehensive Assessment of At Risk Mental States (CAARMS 12/2006) assessment for psychosis risk at the Outreach and Support in South London (OASIS) UHR service (March 2013-April 2014). The diagnostic significance of DSM-5-APS was assessed with percent overall agreement, prevalence bias adjusted kappa, Bowker's test, Stuart-Maxwell test, residual analysis; the prognostic significance with Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier failure function, time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) and net benefits analysis. The impact of specific revisions of the DSM-5-APS was further tested. In 203 help-seeking individuals undergoing UHR assessment, the agreement between the DSM-5-APS and the CAARMS 12/2006 was only moderate (kappa 0.59). Among 142 nonpsychotic cases, those meeting DSM-5-APS criteria had a 5-fold probability (HR = 5.379) of developing psychosis compared to those not meeting DSM-5-APS criteria, with a 21-month cumulative risk of psychosis of 28.17% vs 6.49%, respectively. The DSM-5-APS prognostic accuracy was acceptable (AUC 0.76 at 24 months) and similar to the CAARMS 12/2006. The DSM-5-APS designation may be clinically useful to guide the provision of indicated interventions within a 7%-35% (2-year) range of psychosis risk. The removal of the criterion E or C of the DSM-5-APS may improve its prognostic performance and transdiagnostic value. The DSM-5-APS designation may be clinically useful in individuals accessing clinical services for psychosis prevention. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

25-Hydroxyvitamin D and TSH as Risk Factors or Prognostic Markers in Thyroid Carcinoma

Science.gov (United States)

Danilovic, Debora Lucia Seguro; Ferraz-de-Souza, Bruno; Fabri, Amanda Wictky; Santana, Nathalie Oliveira; Kulcsar, Marco Aurelio; Cernea, Claudio Roberto; Marui, Suemi; Hoff, Ana Oliveira

2016-01-01

Objective The increasing incidence of thyroid nodules demands identification of risk factors for malignant disease. Several studies suggested the association of higher TSH levels with cancer, but influence of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) is controversial. This study aimed to identify the relationship of thyroid cancer with higher TSH levels and hypovitaminosis D and to evaluate their influence on prognostic characteristics of papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTC). Methods We retrospectively evaluated 433 patients submitted to thyroidectomy for thyroid nodules. Patients were categorized according to quartiles of TSH and 25OHD levels. Clinicopathological features were analyzed. Results Subjects with thyroid carcinomas were more frequently male and younger compared to those with benign disease. Their median TSH levels were higher and adjusted odds-ratio (OR) for cancer in the highest-quartile of TSH (> 2.4 mUI/mL) was 2.36 (1.36–4.09). Although vitamin D deficiency/insufficiency was prevalent in our cohort (84%), no significant differences in 25OHD levels or quartile distribution were observed between benign and malignant cases. Among 187 patients with PTC, analyses of prognostic features revealed increased risk of lymph nodes metastases for subjects with highest-quartile TSH levels (OR = 3.7, p = 0.029). Decreased 25OHD levels were not overtly associated with poor prognosis in PTC. Conclusions In this cross-sectional cohort, higher TSH levels increased the risk of cancer in thyroid nodules and influenced its prognosis, particularly favoring lymph nodes metastases. On the other hand, no association was found between 25OHD levels and thyroid carcinoma risk or prognosis, suggesting that serum 25OHD determination may not contribute to risk assessment workup of thyroid nodules. PMID:27737011

Risk Stratification and Effects of Pharmacotherapy in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) based on data from Pilot AMI Registry

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Peleška, Jan; Grünfeldová, H.; Monhart, Z.; Faltus, Václav; Tomečková, Marie; Ryšavá, D.; Velimský, T.; Ballek, L.; Hubač, J.; Charalampidi, K.; Jánský, P.

2007-01-01

Roč. 30 (2007), s. 367-367 ISSN 1420-4096. [Central European Meeting on Hypertension and Cardiovascular Disease Prevention. 11.10.2007-13.10.2007, Kraków] R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M06014 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : pilot registry of acute myocardial infarction * risk stratification in acute myocardial infarction * effects of pharmacotherapy in acute myocardial infarction Subject RIV: FA - Cardiovascular Disease s incl. Cardiotharic Surgery

On Optimum Stratification

OpenAIRE

M. G. M. Khan; V. D. Prasad; D. K. Rao

2014-01-01

In this manuscript, we discuss the problem of determining the optimum stratification of a study (or main) variable based on the auxiliary variable that follows a uniform distribution. If the stratification of survey variable is made using the auxiliary variable it may lead to substantial gains in precision of the estimates. This problem is formulated as a Nonlinear Programming Problem (NLPP), which turn out to multistage decision problem and is solved using dynamic programming technique.

Cloning of the first human anti-JCPyV/VP1 neutralizing monoclonal antibody: epitope definition and implications in risk stratification of patients under natalizumab therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Diotti, Roberta Antonia; Mancini, Nicasio; Clementi, Nicola; Sautto, Giuseppe; Moreno, Guisella Janett; Criscuolo, Elena; Cappelletti, Francesca; Man, Petr; Forest, Eric; Remy, Louise; Giannecchini, Simone; Clementi, Massimo; Burioni, Roberto

2014-08-01

JC virus (JCPyV) has gained novel clinical importance as cause of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), a rare demyelinating disease recently associated to immunomodulatory drugs, such as natalizumab used in multiple sclerosis (MS) cases. Little is known about the mechanisms leading to PML, and this makes the need of PML risk stratification among natalizumab-treated patients very compelling. Clinical and laboratory-based risk-stratification markers have been proposed, one of these is represented by the JCPyV-seropositive status, which includes about 54% of MS patients. We recently proposed to investigate the possible protective role of neutralizing humoral immune response in preventing JCPyV reactivation. In this proof-of-concept study, by cloning the first human monoclonal antibody (GRE1) directed against a neutralizing epitope on JCPyV/VP1, we optimized a robust anti-JCPyV neutralization assay. This allowed us to evaluate the neutralizing activity in JCPyV-positive sera from MS patients, demonstrating the lack of correlation between the level of anti-JCPyV antibody and anti-JCPyV neutralizing activity. Relevant consequences may derive from future clinical studies induced by these findings; indeed the study of the serum anti-JCPyV neutralizing activity could allow not only a better risk stratification of the patients during natalizumab treatment, but also a better understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms leading to PML, highlighting the contribution of peripheral versus central nervous system JCPyV reactivation. Noteworthy, the availability of GRE1 could allow the design of novel immunoprophylactic strategies during the immunomodulatory treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparative analysis of the diagnostic and prognostic value of exercise ECG and thallium-201 scintigraphic markers of myocardial ischemia in asymptomatic and symptomatic patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gibson, R.S.

1989-01-01

A considerable amount of data now exists that indicates that exercise ECG--due to its suboptimal sensitivity and specificity--has limited diagnostic and prognostic value in asymptomatic subjects, patients with chest pain of unclear etiology or those with chronic stable angina pectoris, and in patients recovering from acute myocardial infarction. Because of this and the well-recognized advantages of thallium-201 scintigraphy, there appears to be a strong rationale for recommending exercise perfusion imaging, rather than exercise ECG alone, as the preferred method for detecting CAD and staging its severity. This recommendation seems justified given the fact that (1) thallium-201 scintigraphy is far more sensitive and specific in detecting myocardial ischemia than exercise testing; (2) unlike stress ECG, thallium-201 scintigraphy can localize ischemia to a specific area of areas subtended by a specific coronary artery; and (3) thallium-201 scintigraphy has been shown to be more reliable to risk stratification of individual patients than exercise testing alone. The more optimal prognostic efficiency of thallium-201 scintigraphy is due, in part, to the fact that the error rate in falsely classifying patients as low-risk is substantially and significantly smaller with thallium-201 scintigraphy than with stress ECG. 52 references

Prognostic Value of the Nutritional Risk Index in Heart Transplant Recipients.

Science.gov (United States)

Barge-Caballero, Eduardo; García-López, Fernando; Marzoa-Rivas, Raquel; Barge-Caballero, Gonzalo; Couto-Mallón, David; Paniagua-Martín, María J; Solla-Buceta, Miguel; Velasco-Sierra, Carlos; Pita-Gutiérrez, Francisco; Herrera-Noreña, José M; Cuenca-Castillo, José J; Vázquez-Rodríguez, José Manuel; Crespo-Leiro, María G

2017-08-01

To study the prognostic impact of preoperative nutritional status, as assessed through the nutritional risk index (NRI), on postoperative outcomes after heart transplantation (HT). We conducted a retrospective, single-center study of 574 patients who underwent HT from 1991 to 2014. Preoperative NRI was calculated as 1.519 × serum albumin (g/L) + 41.7 × (body weight [kg] / ideal body weight [kg]). The association between preoperative NRI and postoperative outcomes was analyzed by means of multivariable logistic regression and multivariable Cox regression. Mean NRI before HT was 100.9 ± 9.9. According to this parameter, the prevalence of severe nutritional risk (NRI risk (83.5 ≤ NRI risk (97.5 ≤ NRI risk of postoperative infection (adjusted OR, 0.97; 95%CI, 0.95-1.00; P = .027) and prolonged postoperative ventilator support (adjusted OR, 0.96; 95%CI, 0.94-0.98; P = .001). Patients at moderate or severe nutritional risk had significantly higher 1-year post-HT mortality (adjusted HR, 1.55; 95%CI, 1.22-1.97; P risk of postoperative complications and mortality after HT. Preoperative NRI determination may help to identify HT candidates who might benefit from nutritional intervention. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

BAYESIAN BICLUSTERING FOR PATIENT STRATIFICATION.

Science.gov (United States)

Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Ester, Martin

2016-01-01

The move from Empirical Medicine towards Personalized Medicine has attracted attention to Stratified Medicine (SM). Some methods are provided in the literature for patient stratification, which is the central task of SM, however, there are still significant open issues. First, it is still unclear if integrating different datatypes will help in detecting disease subtypes more accurately, and, if not, which datatype(s) are most useful for this task. Second, it is not clear how we can compare different methods of patient stratification. Third, as most of the proposed stratification methods are deterministic, there is a need for investigating the potential benefits of applying probabilistic methods. To address these issues, we introduce a novel integrative Bayesian biclustering method, called B2PS, for patient stratification and propose methods for evaluating the results. Our experimental results demonstrate the superiority of B2PS over a popular state-of-the-art method and the benefits of Bayesian approaches. Our results agree with the intuition that transcriptomic data forms a better basis for patient stratification than genomic data.

The prognostic ability of the STarT Back Tool was affected by episode duration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morsø, Lars; Kongsted, Alice; Hestbæk, Lise

2016-01-01

were not systematically affected by SBT risk subgroup (non-stratified care). Using generalised estimating equations, we investigated statistical interactions between SBT risk subgroups and potentially influential factors on the prognostic ability of the SBT subgroups, when Roland Morris Disability...... Questionnaire scores were the outcome. RESULTS: SBT risk subgroup, age, care setting, and episode duration were all independent prognostic factors. The only investigated factor that modified the prognostic ability of the SBT subgroups was episode duration. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that the prognostic...

The prognostic value of MRI in determining reinjury risk following acute hamstring injury: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

van Heumen, Moniek; Tol, Johannes L; de Vos, Robert-Jan; Moen, Maarten H; Weir, Adam; Orchard, John; Reurink, Gustaaf

2017-09-01

A challenge for sports physicians is to estimate the risk of a hamstring re-injury, but the current evidence for MRI variables as a risk factor is unknown. To systematically review the literature on the prognostic value of MRI findings at index injury and/or return to play for acute hamstring re-injuries. Databases of PubMed, Embase, MEDLINE, Scopus, CINAHL, Google Scholar, Web of Science, LILACS, SciELO, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, SPORTDiscus and Cochrane Library were searched until 20 June 2016. Studies evaluating MRI as a prognostic tool for determining the risk of re-injury for athletes with acute hamstring injuries were eligible for inclusion. Two authors independently screened the search results and assessed risk of bias using standardised criteria from a consensus statement. A best-evidence synthesis was used to identify the level of evidence. Post hoc analysis included correction for insufficient sample size. Of the 11 studies included, 7 had a low and 4 had a high risk of bias. No strong evidence for any MRI finding as a risk factor for hamstring re-injury was found. There was moderate evidence that intratendinous injuries were associated with increased re-injury risk. Post hoc analysis showed moderate evidence that injury to the biceps femoris was a moderate to strong risk factor for re-injury. There is currently no strong evidence for any MRI finding in predicting hamstring re-injury risk. Intratendinous injuries and biceps femoris injuries showed moderate evidence for association with a higher re-injury risk. Registration in the PROSPERO International prospective register of systematic reviews was performed prior to study initiation (registration number CRD42015024620). © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Risk and prognostic factors for non-specific musculoskeletal pain : A synthesis of evidence from systematic reviews classified into ICF dimensions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lakke, Sandra E.; Soer, Remko; Takken, Tim; Reneman, Michiel F.

2009-01-01

A wide variety of risk factors for the occurrence and prognostic factors for persistence of non-specific musculoskeletal pain (MSP) are mentioned in the literature. A systematic review of all these factors is not available. Thus a systematic review was conducted to evaluate MSP risk factors and

A clinical risk stratification tool for predicting treatment resistance in major depressive disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Perlis, Roy H

2013-07-01

Early identification of depressed individuals at high risk for treatment resistance could be helpful in selecting optimal setting and intensity of care. At present, validated tools to facilitate this risk stratification are rarely used in psychiatric practice. Data were drawn from the first two treatment levels of a multicenter antidepressant effectiveness study in major depressive disorder, the STAR*D (Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression) cohort. This cohort was divided into training, testing, and validation subsets. Only clinical or sociodemographic variables available by or readily amenable to self-report were considered. Multivariate models were developed to discriminate individuals reaching remission with a first or second pharmacological treatment trial from those not reaching remission despite two trials. A logistic regression model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve exceeding .71 in training, testing, and validation cohorts and maintained good calibration across cohorts. Performance of three alternative models with machine learning approaches--a naïve Bayes classifier and a support vector machine, and a random forest model--was less consistent. Similar performance was observed between more and less severe depression, men and women, and primary versus specialty care sites. A web-based calculator was developed that implements this tool and provides graphical estimates of risk. Risk for treatment resistance among outpatients with major depressive disorder can be estimated with a simple model incorporating baseline sociodemographic and clinical features. Future studies should examine the performance of this model in other clinical populations and its utility in treatment selection or clinical trial design. Copyright © 2013 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Thermal stratification in the pressurizer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baik, S.J.; Lee, K.W.; Ro, T.S.

2001-01-01

The thermal stratification in the pressurizer due to the insurge from the hot leg to the pressurizer has been studied. The insurge flow of the cold water into the pressurizer takes place during the heatup/cooldown and the normal or abnormal transients during power operation. The pressurizer vessel can undergo significant thermal fatigue usage caused by insurges and outsurges. Two-dimensional axisymmetric transient analysis for the thermal stratification in the pressurizer is performed using the computational fluid dynamics code, FLUENT, to get the velocity and temperature distribution. Parametric study has been carried out to investigate the effect of the inlet velocity and the temperature difference between the hot leg and the pressurizer on the thermal stratification. The results show that the insurge flow of cold water into the pressurizer does not mix well with hot water, and the cold water remains only in the lower portion of the pressurizer, which leads to the thermal stratification in the pressurizer. The thermal load on the pressurizer due to the thermal stratification or the cyclic thermal transient should be examined with respect to the mechanical integrity and this study can serve the design data for the stress analysis. (authors)

Evaluating biomarkers for prognostic enrichment of clinical trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Kerr, Kathleen F; Roth, Jeremy; Zhu, Kehao; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Meisner, Allison; Wilson, Francis Perry; Coca, Steven; Parikh, Chirag R

2017-12-01

A potential use of biomarkers is to assist in prognostic enrichment of clinical trials, where only patients at relatively higher risk for an outcome of interest are eligible for the trial. We investigated methods for evaluating biomarkers for prognostic enrichment. We identified five key considerations when considering a biomarker and a screening threshold for prognostic enrichment: (1) clinical trial sample size, (2) calendar time to enroll the trial, (3) total patient screening costs and the total per-patient trial costs, (4) generalizability of trial results, and (5) ethical evaluation of trial eligibility criteria. Items (1)-(3) are amenable to quantitative analysis. We developed the Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool for evaluating biomarkers for prognostic enrichment at varying levels of screening stringency. We demonstrate that both modestly prognostic and strongly prognostic biomarkers can improve trial metrics using Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool. Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool is available as a webtool at http://prognosticenrichment.com and as a package for the R statistical computing platform. In some clinical settings, even biomarkers with modest prognostic performance can be useful for prognostic enrichment. In addition to the quantitative analysis provided by Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool, investigators must consider the generalizability of trial results and evaluate the ethics of trial eligibility criteria.

Prognostic Value of Echocardiography in Hypertensive Versus Nonhypertensive Participants From the General Population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Modin, Daniel; Biering-Sørensen, Sofie Reumert; Mogelvang, Rasmus

2018-01-01

Hypertension may be the most significant cardiovascular risk factor. Few studies have assessed the prognostic value of echocardiography in hypertensive individuals. This study examines the incremental prognostic value of adding echocardiographic parameters to established risk factors in individuals...... of echocardiography in predicting cardiovascular outcomes in the general population is altered by hypertension. In hypertensive individuals, left ventricular mass index added incremental prognostic value in addition to established risk factors. In nonhypertensive individuals, global longitudinal strain added...

Estratificación de riesgo en pie diabético Risk stratification in diabetic foot

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Héctor González de la Torre

2010-12-01

factors is an essential previous step in nursing. The purpose of this study is to detect the presence of certain risk factors in diabetic foot in the diabetic population of Triana Healthcare Centre to be able to carry out a stratification of the risk. For this research, there was chosen an observational, descriptive and transversal study. The analyzed sample was constituted by 96 diabetic subjects belonging to the Healthcare Centre. For the data collection, we use different systems such as interviews, physical exams and the available records (clinical history of the patients. The information has been recorded in a questionnaire of the diabetic foot. The existence of risk factors was determined by analyzing the relationship between them allowing the risk stratification of the studied sample.

Histological pattern of Merkel cell carcinoma sentinel lymph node metastasis improves stratification of Stage III patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Ko, Jennifer S; Prieto, Victor G; Elson, Paul J; Vilain, Ricardo E; Pulitzer, Melissa P; Scolyer, Richard A; Reynolds, Jordan P; Piliang, Melissa P; Ernstoff, Marc S; Gastman, Brian R; Billings, Steven D

2016-02-01

Sentinel lymph node biopsy is used to stage Merkel cell carcinoma, but its prognostic value has been questioned. Furthermore, predictors of outcome in sentinel lymph node positive Merkel cell carcinoma patients are poorly defined. In breast carcinoma, isolated immunohistochemically positive tumor cells have no impact, but in melanoma they are considered significant. The significance of sentinel lymph node metastasis tumor burden (including isolated tumor cells) and pattern of involvement in Merkel cell carcinoma are unknown. In this study, 64 Merkel cell carcinomas involving sentinel lymph nodes and corresponding immunohistochemical stains were reviewed and clinicopathological predictors of outcome were sought. Five metastatic patterns were identified: (1) sheet-like (n=38, 59%); (2) non-solid parafollicular (n=4, 6%); (3) sinusoidal, (n=11, 17%); (4) perivascular hilar (n=1, 2%); and (5) rare scattered parenchymal cells (n=10, 16%). At the time of follow-up, 30/63 (48%) patients had died with 21 (33%) attributable to Merkel cell carcinoma. Patients with pattern 1 metastases had poorer overall survival compared with patients with patterns 2-5 metastases (P=0.03), with 22/30 (73%) deaths occurring in pattern 1 patients. Three (10%) deaths occurred in patients showing pattern 5, all of whom were immunosuppressed. Four (13%) deaths occurred in pattern 3 patients and 1 (3%) death occurred in a pattern 2 patient. In multivariable analysis, the number of positive sentinel lymph nodes (1 or 2 versus >2, PMerkel cell carcinoma, the pattern of sentinel lymph node involvement provides important prognostic information and utilizing this data with other clinicopathological features facilitates risk stratification of Merkel cell carcinoma patients who may have management implications.

Multilayer fabric stratification pipes for solar tanks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Elsa; Furbo, Simon; Fan, Jianhua

2007-01-01

The thermal performance of solar heating systems is strongly influenced by the thermal stratification in the heat storage. The higher the degree of thermal stratification is, the higher the thermal performance of the solar heating systems. Thermal stratification in water storages can for instance...

In-hospital outcome of acute myocardial infarction in correlation with 'thrombolysis in myocardial infarction' risk score

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masood, A.; Naqvi, M.A.; Jafar, S.S.

2009-01-01

Effective risk stratification is integral to management of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is a simple integer score based on 8 high-risk parameters that can be used at the bedside for risk stratification of patients at presentation with STEMI. To evaluate the prognostic significance of TIMI risk score in a local population group of acute STEMI. The study included 160 cases of STEMI eligible for thrombolysis. TIMI risk score was calculated for each case at the time of presentation and were then followed during their hospital stay for the occurrence of electrical and mechanical complications as well as mortality. The patients were divided into three risk groups, namely 'low risk', 'moderate-risk' and 'high-risk' based on their TIMI scores (0-4 low-risk, 5-8 moderate-risk, 9-14 high risk). The frequencies of complications and deaths were compared among the three risk groups. Post MI arrhythmias were noted in 2.2%, 16% and 50%; cardiogenic shock in 6.7%, 16% and 60%; pulmonary edema in 6.7%, 20% and 80%; mechanical complications of MI in 0%, 8% and 30%; death in 4.4%, 8%, and 60% of patients belonging to low-risk, moderate-risk and high-risk groups respectively. Frequency of complications and death correlated well with TIMI risk score (p=0.001). TIMI risk score correlates well with the frequency of electrical or mechanical complications and death after STEMI. (author)

Diagnostic performance of an acoustic-based system for coronary artery disease risk stratification.

Science.gov (United States)

Winther, Simon; Nissen, Louise; Schmidt, Samuel Emil; Westra, Jelmer Sybren; Rasmussen, Laust Dupont; Knudsen, Lars Lyhne; Madsen, Lene Helleskov; Kirk Johansen, Jane; Larsen, Bjarke Skogstad; Struijk, Johannes Jan; Frost, Lars; Holm, Niels Ramsing; Christiansen, Evald Høj; Botker, Hans Erik; Bøttcher, Morten

2017-11-09

Diagnosing coronary artery disease (CAD) continues to require substantial healthcare resources. Acoustic analysis of transcutaneous heart sounds of cardiac movement and intracoronary turbulence due to obstructive coronary disease could potentially change this. The aim of this study was thus to test the diagnostic accuracy of a new portable acoustic device for detection of CAD. We included 1675 patients consecutively with low to intermediate likelihood of CAD who had been referred for cardiac CT angiography. If significant obstruction was suspected in any coronary segment, patients were referred to invasive angiography and fractional flow reserve (FFR) assessment. Heart sound analysis was performed in all patients. A predefined acoustic CAD-score algorithm was evaluated; subsequently, we developed and validated an updated CAD-score algorithm that included both acoustic features and clinical risk factors. Low risk is indicated by a CAD-score value ≤20. Haemodynamically significant CAD assessed from FFR was present in 145 (10.0%) patients. In the entire cohort, the predefined CAD-score had a sensitivity of 63% and a specificity of 44%. In total, 50% had an updated CAD-score value ≤20. At this cut-off, sensitivity was 81% (95% CI 73% to 87%), specificity 53% (95% CI 50% to 56%), positive predictive value 16% (95% CI 13% to 18%) and negative predictive value 96% (95% CI 95% to 98%) for diagnosing haemodynamically significant CAD. Sound-based detection of CAD enables risk stratification superior to clinical risk scores. With a negative predictive value of 96%, this new acoustic rule-out system could potentially supplement clinical assessment to guide decisions on the need for further diagnostic investigation. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02264717; Results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Doppler Endoscopic Probe Monitoring of Blood Flow Improves Risk Stratification and Outcomes of Patients With Severe Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage.

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, Dennis M; Kovacs, Thomas O G; Ohning, Gordon V; Ghassemi, Kevin; Machicado, Gustavo A; Dulai, Gareth S; Sedarat, Alireza; Jutabha, Rome; Gornbein, Jeffrey

2017-05-01

For 4 decades, stigmata of recent hemorrhage in patients with nonvariceal lesions have been used for risk stratification and endoscopic hemostasis. The arterial blood flow that underlies the stigmata rarely is monitored, but can be used to determine risk for rebleeding. We performed a randomized controlled trial to determine whether Doppler endoscopic probe monitoring of blood flow improves risk stratification and outcomes in patients with severe nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage. In a single-blind study performed at 2 referral centers we assigned 148 patients with severe nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (125 with ulcers, 19 with Dieulafoy's lesions, and 4 with Mallory Weiss tears) to groups that underwent standard, visually guided endoscopic hemostasis (control, n = 76), or endoscopic hemostasis assisted by Doppler monitoring of blood flow under the stigmata (n = 72). The primary outcome was the rate of rebleeding after 30 days; secondary outcomes were complications, death, and need for transfusions, surgery, or angiography. There was a significant difference in the rates of lesion rebleeding within 30 days of endoscopic hemostasis in the control group (26.3%) vs the Doppler group (11.1%) (P = .0214). The odds ratio for rebleeding with Doppler monitoring was 0.35 (95% confidence interval, 0.143-0.8565) and the number needed to treat was 7. In a randomized controlled trial of patients with severe upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage from ulcers or other lesions, Doppler probe guided endoscopic hemostasis significantly reduced 30-day rates of rebleeding compared with standard, visually guided hemostasis. Guidelines for nonvariceal gastrointestinal bleeding should incorporate these results. ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT00732212 (CLIN-013-07F). Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic impact of incomplete surgical clearance of radioiodine sensitive local lymph node metastases diagnosed by post-operative {sup 124}I-NaI-PET/CT in patients with papillary thyroid cancer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sabet, Amir; Binse, Ina; Grafe, Hong; Goerges, Rainer; Poeppel, Thorsten D.; Bockisch, Andreas; Rosenbaum-Krumme, Sandra J. [University Duisburg-Essen, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Essen (Germany); Ezziddin, Samer [Saarland University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Homburg (Germany)

2016-10-15

Nodal involvement is an independent risk factor of recurrence in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). Neither the international guidelines nor the recently introduced ongoing risk adaptation concept consider the extent of initial surgical clearance of radioiodine sensitive lymph node metastases in their stratification systems. We investigated the prognostic relevance of incomplete initial surgical clearance in patients with purely lymphogeneous metastatic PTC (pN1 M0) despite successful radioiodine therapy. Accurate assessment of pre-ablative nodal status was attempted using PET/CT studies with both {sup 124}I-NaI and {sup 18}F-FDG along with high-resolution cervical ultrasound. Sixty-five patients with histologically diagnosed lymph node metastases (pN1 M0) were retrospectively analyzed. Patients with iodine-negative lymph node metastases diagnosed by {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT or distant metastases were excluded from the analysis. The association of disease recurrence with the pre-ablative nodal status, as well as other baseline characteristics, were examined applying nonparametric tests for independent samples and multiple regression analysis. Patients with persistent lymph node metastases in {sup 124}I-NaI PET/CT were further divided according to the additional presence or absence of FDG-uptake in {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT. Survival analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier curves and the Cox proportional hazards model for uni- and multivariate analyses to assess the influence of prognostic factors on progression free survival (PFS). Incomplete metastatic lymph node resection captured by {sup 124}I-NaI PET/CT (n = 33) was an independent risk factor for recurrence (61 % vs 25 %, p = 0.006) and shorter PFS (46 months vs not reached, HR 4.0 [95 %-CI, 1.7-9.2], p = 0.001). Ultrasound could detect lymph node metastases only in 19/33 patients (58 %). Among patients with positive nodal status, FDG-avidity of metastatic iodine positive lymph nodes worsened the outcome (16 vs 69

Talent Complementarity and Organizational Stratification

Science.gov (United States)

Abrahamson, Mark

1973-01-01

Stratification within organizations as produced by the distribution of functional importance among positions is investigated. According to Stinchcombe's hypothesis from the functional theory of stratification, the rewards given to various positions are expected to be less equal when talent is complementary rather than additive. Actual differences…

Risk stratification of cardiovascular events in hypertensive patients with asymptomatic or symptomatic lacunar infarcts by 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shiraishi, Makoto; Watanabe, Hirofumi; Sakurai, Kenzo; Kato, Bunta; Hasegawa, Yasuhiro

2012-01-01

Our goal was to investigate the utility of 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) for the risk stratification of cardiovascular events in hypertensive patients with asymptomatic or symptomatic lacunar infarcts. A total of 175 hypertensive patients with MRI evidence of asymptomatic or symptomatic lacunar infarcts (92 men, mean age of 69±11 years old) were studied. Patients with symptomatic infarctions were included whose events occurred more than 6 months after the onset. ABPM was performed in all patients in the outpatient clinic. Parameters obtained from ABPM were related to the composite outcome which consisted of all death and fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events by using the Cox proportional hazard model. Mean follow-up period was 4.8 years and the composite outcome was recorded in 38 patients. 34 of them (89%) had recurrence of lacunar infarcts. Significant association between sleep-time lowest systolic blood pressure and composite outcome was demonstrated by multivariate Cox hazard analyses (heart rate (HR) 1.025, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.011-1.039, p<0.001). The risk for composite outcome in patients with the highest tertile of sleep-time lowest systolic blood pressure (≥133 mmHg) was significantly elevated when compared to the lowest tertile (<132 mmHg, HR 3.93, 95% CI 1.57-9.86, p=0.004). Sleep-time lowest systolic blood pressure in ABPM may be a useful parameter for the risk stratification of future cardiovascular events in hypertensive patients with asymptomatic or symptomatic lacunar infarcts, especially for the recurrence of these events. (author)

Prognostic impact of germinal center-associated proteins and chromosomal breakpoints in poor-risk diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Imhoff, Gustaaf W.; Boerma, Evert-Jan G.; van der Holt, Bronno; Schuuring, Ed; Verdonck, Leo F.; Kluin-Nelemans, Hanneke C.; Kluin, Philip M.

2006-01-01

Purpose Outcome of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) with a germinal center B-cell (GCB) expression profile is superior to that of non-GCB DLBCL. This conclusion is mainly derived from patients with mixed international prognostic index (IPI) risk profiles treated with CHOP-like therapy

Application of FISH 7q in MDS patients without monosomy 7 or 7q deletion by conventional G-banding cytogenetics: does -7/7q- detection by FISH have prognostic value?

Science.gov (United States)

Ademà, Vera; Hernández, Jesús María; Abáigar, María; Lumbreras, Eva; Such, Esperanza; Calull, Anna; Dominguez, Esther; Arenillas, Leonor; Mallo, Mar; Cervera, José; Marugán, Isabel; Tormo, Mar; García, Francisca; González, Teresa; Luño, Elisa; Sanzo, Carmen; Martín, María Luisa; Fernández, Manuela; Costa, Dolors; Blázquez, Beatriz; Barreña, Beatriz; Marco, Fernando; Batlle, Ana; Buño, Ismael; Martínez-Laperche, Carolina; Noriega, Víctor; Collado, Rosa; Ivars, David; Carbonell, Félix; Vallcorba, Isabel; Melero, Josefa; Delgado, Elena; Vargas, María Teresa; Grau, Javier; Salido, Marta; Espinet, Blanca; Melero, Carme; Florensa, Lourdes; Pedro, Carmen; Solé, Francesc

2013-04-01

Chromosomal abnormalities are detected in 40-60% of patients with de novo myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). This study used the FISH technique in 773 patients with de novo MDS without evidence of monosomy 7 (-7) or 7q deletion (7q-) by conventional G-banding cytogenetics (CC) to analyze their prognostic impact by FISH alone. FISH detected -7/7q- in 5.2% of patients. Presence of -7/7q- was associated with shorter overall survival than absence of such aberrations. Our results suggest that FISH 7q could be beneficial in patients with intermediate WHO morphologic risk stratification and no evidence of -7/7q- by CC. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age-adjusted high-sensitivity troponin T cut-off value for risk stratification of pulmonary embolism.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaeberich, Anja; Seeber, Valerie; Jiménez, David; Kostrubiec, Maciej; Dellas, Claudia; Hasenfuß, Gerd; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Pruszczyk, Piotr; Konstantinides, Stavros; Lankeit, Mareike

2015-05-01

High-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) helps in identifying pulmonary embolism patients at low risk of an adverse outcome. In 682 normotensive pulmonary embolism patients we investigate whether an optimised hsTnT cut-off value and adjustment for age improve the identification of patients at elevated risk. Overall, 25 (3.7%) patients had an adverse 30-day outcome. The established hsTnT cut-off value of 14 pg·mL(-1) retained its high prognostic value (OR (95% CI) 16.64 (2.24-123.74); p=0.006) compared with the cut-off value of 33 pg·mL(-1) calculated by receiver operating characteristic analysis (7.14 (2.64-19.26); pvalue of 45 pg·mL(-1) but not the established cut-off value of 14 pg·mL(-1) predicted an adverse outcome. An age-adjusted hsTnT cut-off value (≥14 pg·mL(-1) for patients aged risk (12.4% adverse outcome). Risk assessment of normotensive pulmonary embolism patients was improved by the introduction of an age-adjusted hsTnT cut-off value. A three-step approach helped identify patients at higher risk of an adverse outcome who might benefit from advanced therapy. Copyright ©ERS 2015.

A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rapsomaniki, Eleni; White, Ian R; Wood, Angela M

2012-01-01

New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit......) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk...... reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple...

Power of resting echocardiographic measurements to classify pulmonary hypertension patients according to European society of cardiology exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs.

Science.gov (United States)

Rehman, Michaela B; Garcia, Rodrigue; Christiaens, Luc; Larrieu-Ardilouze, Elisa; Howard, Luke S; Nihoyannopoulos, Petros

2018-04-15

Right ventricular function is the major determinant of morbidity and mortality in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The ESC risk assessment strategy for PAH is based on clinical status, exercise testing, NTproBNP, imaging and haemodynamics but does not include right ventricular function. Our aims were to test the power of resting echocardiographic measurements to classify PAH patients according to ESC exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs and to determine if the classification power of echocardiographic parameters varied in chronic thrombo-embolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). We prospectively and consecutively recruited 46 PAH patients and 42 CTEPH patients referred for cardio-pulmonary exercise testing and comprehensive transthoracic echocardiography. Exercise testing parameters analyzed were peak oxygen consumption, percentage of predicted maximal oxygen consumption and the slope of ventilation against carbon dioxide production. Receiver operator characteristic curves were used to determine the optimal diagnostic cut-off values of echocardiographic parameters for classifying the patients in intermediate or high risk category according to exercise testing. Measurements of right ventricular systolic function were the best for classifying in PAH (area under the curve 0.815 to 0.935). Measurements of right ventricular pressure overload (0.810 to 0.909) were optimal for classifying according to exercise testing in CTEPH. Measurements of left ventricular function were of no use in either group. Measurements of right ventricular systolic function can classify according to exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs in PAH. However, this is not the case in CTEPH where pressure overload, rather than right ventricular function seems to be linked to exercise performance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prognostic value of atherosclerotic burden and coronary vascular function in patients with suspected coronary artery disease

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Assante, Roberta; Zampella, Emilia; Nappi, Carmela; Mainolfi, Ciro Gabriele; Cuocolo, Alberto [University Federico II, Department of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, Naples (Italy); Acampa, Wanda [University Federico II, Department of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, Naples (Italy); Institute of Biostructure and Bioimaging, National Council of Research, Naples (Italy); Arumugam, Parthiban; Tonge, Christine M. [Central Manchester University Teaching Hospitals, Nuclear Medicine Center, Manchester (United Kingdom); Gaudieri, Valeria; Panico, Mariarosaria; Magliulo, Mario [Institute of Biostructure and Bioimaging, National Council of Research, Naples (Italy); Petretta, Mario [University Federico II, Department of Translational Medical Sciences, Naples (Italy)

2017-12-15

To evaluate the prognostic value of coronary atherosclerotic burden, assessed by coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, and coronary vascular function, assessed by coronary flow reserve (CFR) in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). We studied 436 patients undergoing hybrid {sup 82}Rb positron emission tomography/computed tomography imaging. CAC score was measured according to the Agatston method, and patients were categorized into three groups (0, <400, and ≥400). CFR was calculated as the ratio of hyperemic to baseline myocardial blood flow, and it was considered reduced when <2. Follow-up was 94% complete during a mean period of 47±15 months. During follow-up, 17 events occurred (4% cumulative event rate). Event-free survival decreased with worsening of CAC score category (p < 0.001) and in patients with reduced CFR (p < 0.005). At multivariable analysis, CAC score ≥400 (p < 0.01) and CFR (p < 0.005) were independent predictors of events. Including CFR in the prognostic model, continuous net reclassification improvement was 0.51 (0.14 in patients with events and 0.37 in those without). At classification and regression tree analysis, the initial split was on CAC score. For patients with a CAC score < 400, no further split was performed, while patients with a CAC score ≥400 were further stratified by CFR values. Decision curve analyses indicate that the model including CFR resulted in a higher net benefit across a wide range of decision threshold probabilities. In patients with suspected CAD, CFR provides significant incremental risk stratification over established cardiac risk factors and CAC score for prediction of adverse cardiac events. (orig.)

Cardiovascular risk stratification in overweight or obese patients in primary prevention. Implications for use of statins.

Science.gov (United States)

Masson, Walter; Lobo, Martín; Huerín, Melina; Molinero, Graciela; Manente, Diego; Pángaro, Mario; Vitagliano, Laura; Zylbersztejn, Horacio

2015-02-01

Cardiovascular risk estimation in patients with overweight/obesity is not standardized. Our objectives were to stratify cardiovascular risk using different scores, to analyze use of statins, to report the prevalence of carotid atherosclerotic plaque (CAP), and to determine the optimal cut-off point (OCP) of scores that discriminate between subjects with or without CAP. Non-diabetic patients with overweight or obesity in primary prevention were enrolled. The Framingham score (FS), the European score (ES), and the score proposed by the new American guidelines (NS) were calculated, and statin indication was evaluated. Prevalence of CAP was determined by ultrasound examination. A ROC analysis was performed. A total of 474 patients (67% with overweight and 33% obese) were enrolled into the study. The FS classified the largest number of subjects as low risk. PAC prevalence was higher in obese as compared to overweight subjects (44.8% vs. 36.1%, P=.04). According to the FS, ES, and NS respectively, 26.7%, 39.1%, and 39.1% of overweight subjects and 28.6%, 39.0%, and 39.0% of obese subjects had an absolute indication for statins. All three scores were shown to acceptably discriminate between subjects with and without CAP (area under the curve>0.7). The OCPs evaluated did not agree with the risk category values. Risk stratification and use of statins varied in the overweight/obese population depending on the function used. Understanding of the relationship between scores and presence of CAP may optimize risk estimate. Copyright © 2014 SEEN. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

High Genomic Instability Predicts Survival in Metastatic High-Risk Neuroblastoma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sara Stigliani

2012-09-01

Full Text Available We aimed to identify novel molecular prognostic markers to better predict relapse risk estimate for children with high-risk (HR metastatic neuroblastoma (NB. We performed genome- and/or transcriptome-wide analyses of 129 stage 4 HR NBs. Children older than 1 year of age were categorized as “short survivors” (dead of disease within 5 years from diagnosis and “long survivors” (alive with an overall survival time ≥ 5 years. We reported that patients with less than three segmental copy number aberrations in their tumor represent a molecularly defined subgroup with a high survival probability within the current HR group of patients. The complex genomic pattern is a prognostic marker independent of NB-associated chromosomal aberrations, i.e., MYCN amplification, 1p and 11q losses, and 17q gain. Integrative analysis of genomic and expression signatures demonstrated that fatal outcome is mainly associated with loss of cell cycle control and deregulation of Rho guanosine triphosphates (GTPases functioning in neuritogenesis. Tumors with MYCN amplification show a lower chromosome instability compared to MYCN single-copy NBs (P = .0008, dominated by 17q gain and 1p loss. Moreover, our results suggest that the MYCN amplification mainly drives disruption of neuronal differentiation and reduction of cell adhesion process involved in tumor invasion and metastasis. Further validation studies are warranted to establish this as a risk stratification for patients.

A simple but highly effective approach to evaluate the prognostic performance of gene expression signatures.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maud H W Starmans

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Highly parallel analysis of gene expression has recently been used to identify gene sets or 'signatures' to improve patient diagnosis and risk stratification. Once a signature is generated, traditional statistical testing is used to evaluate its prognostic performance. However, due to the dimensionality of microarrays, this can lead to false interpretation of these signatures. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A method was developed to test batches of a user-specified number of randomly chosen signatures in patient microarray datasets. The percentage of random generated signatures yielding prognostic value was assessed using ROC analysis by calculating the area under the curve (AUC in six public available cancer patient microarray datasets. We found that a signature consisting of randomly selected genes has an average 10% chance of reaching significance when assessed in a single dataset, but can range from 1% to ∼40% depending on the dataset in question. Increasing the number of validation datasets markedly reduces this number. CONCLUSIONS: We have shown that the use of an arbitrary cut-off value for evaluation of signature significance is not suitable for this type of research, but should be defined for each dataset separately. Our method can be used to establish and evaluate signature performance of any derived gene signature in a dataset by comparing its performance to thousands of randomly generated signatures. It will be of most interest for cases where few data are available and testing in multiple datasets is limited.

Gastric cancer: texture analysis from multidetector computed tomography as a potential preoperative prognostic biomarker

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Giganti, Francesco; Salerno, Annalaura; Marra, Paolo; Esposito, Antonio; Del Maschio, Alessandro; De Cobelli, Francesco [Department of Radiology and Centre for Experimental Imaging San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan (Italy); San Raffaele Vita-Salute University, Milan (Italy); Antunes, Sofia [San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Centre for Experimental Imaging, Milan (Italy); Ambrosi, Alessandro [San Raffaele Vita-Salute University, Milan (Italy); Nicoletti, Roberto [Department of Radiology and Centre for Experimental Imaging San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan (Italy); Orsenigo, Elena [San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Department of Surgery, Milan (Italy); Chiari, Damiano; Staudacher, Carlo [San Raffaele Vita-Salute University, Milan (Italy); San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Department of Surgery, Milan (Italy); Albarello, Luca [San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Pathology Unit, Milan (Italy)

2017-05-15

To investigate the association between preoperative texture analysis from multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) and overall survival in patients with gastric cancer. Institutional review board approval and informed consent were obtained. Fifty-six patients with biopsy-proved gastric cancer were examined by MDCT and treated with surgery. Image features from texture analysis were quantified, with and without filters for fine to coarse textures. The association with survival time was assessed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox analysis. The following parameters were significantly associated with a negative prognosis, according to different thresholds: energy [no filter] - Logarithm of relative risk (Log RR): 3.25; p = 0.046; entropy [no filter] (Log RR: 5.96; p = 0.002); entropy [filter 1.5] (Log RR: 3.54; p = 0.027); maximum Hounsfield unit value [filter 1.5] (Log RR: 3.44; p = 0.027); skewness [filter 2] (Log RR: 5.83; p = 0.004); root mean square [filter 1] (Log RR: - 2.66; p = 0.024) and mean absolute deviation [filter 2] (Log RR: - 4.22; p = 0.007). Texture analysis could increase the performance of a multivariate prognostic model for risk stratification in gastric cancer. Further evaluations are warranted to clarify the clinical role of texture analysis from MDCT. (orig.)

PAS positivity of erythroid precursor cells is associated with a poor prognosis in newly diagnosed myelodysplastic syndrome patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Masuda, Kenta; Shiga, Shuichi; Kawabata, Hiroshi; Takaori-Kondo, Akifumi; Ichiyama, Satoshi; Kamikubo, Yasuhiko

2018-07-01

Myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) is a group of clonal stem cell disorders characterized by hematopoietic insufficiency. The accurate risk stratification of patients with MDS is essential for selection of appropriate therapies. We herein conducted a retrospective cohort study to examine the prognostic value of periodic acid-Schiff (PAS) reaction-positive erythroblasts in MDS patients. We examined the PAS positivity of the bone marrow erythroblasts of 144 patients newly diagnosed with MDS; 26 (18.1%) of them had PAS-positive erythroblasts, whereas 118 (81.9%) did not. The PAS-positive group showed significantly poorer karyotypes as defined in the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) and higher scores in age-adjusted IPSS-R (IPSS-RA) than the PAS-negative group. Overall survival (OS) and leukemia-free survival (LFS) were also significantly shorter in the PAS-positive group than in the PAS-negative group. Similar results were obtained when only high- and very high risk groups were analyzed using IPSS-RA. This retrospective study suggested that the PAS positivity of erythroblasts is an additional prognostic factor combined with other risk scores for OS and LFS in MDS, and our results may contribute to improved clinical decision-making and rapid risk stratification.

Novel Risk Stratification Assays for Acute Coronary Syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, Haitham M; Hazen, Stanley L

2017-08-01

Since identification of aspartate aminotransferase as the first cardiac biomarker in the 1950s, there have been a number of new markers used for myocardial damage detection over the decades. There have also been several generations of troponin assays, each with progressively increasing sensitivity for troponin detection. Accordingly, the "standard of care" for myocardial damage detection continues to change. The purpose of this paper is to review the clinical utility, biological mechanisms, and predictive value of these various biomarkers in contemporary clinical studies. As of this writing, a fifth "next" generation troponin assay has now been cleared by the US Food and Drug Administration for clinical use in the USA for subjects presenting with suspected acute coronary syndromes. Use of these high-sensitivity assays has allowed for earlier detection of myocardial damage as well as greater negative predictive value for infarction after only one or two serial measurements. Recent algorithms utilizing these assays have allowed for more rapid rule-out of myocardial infarction in emergency department settings. In this review, we discuss novel assays available for the risk assessment of subjects presenting with chest pain, including both the "next generation" cardiac troponin assays as well as other novel biomarkers. We review the biological mechanisms for these markers, and explore the positive and negative predictive value of the assays in clinical studies, where reported. We also discuss the potential use of these new markers within the context of future clinical care in the modern era of higher sensitivity troponin testing. Finally, we discuss advances in new platforms (e.g., mass spectrometry) that historically have not been considered for rapid in vitro diagnostic capabilities, but that are taking a larger role in clinical diagnostics, and whose prognostic value and power promise to usher in new markers with potential for future clinical utility in acute coronary

BRAIN NATRIURETIC PEPTIDE (BNP: BIOMARKER FOR RISK STRATIFICATION AND FUNCTIONAL RECOVERY PREDICTION IN ISCHEMIC STROKE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

STANESCU Ioana

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Functional outcome after cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events is traditionally predicted using demographic and clinical variables like age, gender, blood pressure, cholesterol levels, diabetes status, smoking habits or pre-existing morbidity. Identification of new variables will improve the risk stratification of specific categories of patients. Numerous blood-based biomarkers associated with increased cardiovascular risk have been identified; some of them even predict cardiovascular events. Investigators have tried to produce prediction models by incorporating traditional risk factors and biomarkers. (1. Widely-available, rapidly processed and less expensive biomarkers could be used in the future to guide management of complex cerebrovascular patients in order to maximize their recovery (2 Recently, studies have demonstrated that biomarkers can predict not only the risk for a specific clinical event, but also the risk of death of vascular cause and the functional outcome after cardiovascular or cerebrovascular events. Early prediction of fatal outcome after stroke may improve therapeutic strategies (such as the use of more aggressive treatments or inclusion of patients in clinical trials and guide decision-making processes in order to maximize patient’s chances for survival and recovery. (3 Long term functional outcome after stroke is one of the most difficult variables to predict. Elevated serum levels of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP are powerful predictor of outcomes in patients with cardiovascular disease (heart failure, atrial fibrillation. Potential role of BNP in predicting atrial fibrillation occurrence, cardio-embolic stroke and post-stroke mortality have been proved in many studies. However, data concerning the potential role of BNP in predicting short term and long term functional outcomes after stroke remain controversial.

Performance of critical care prognostic scoring systems in low and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

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Haniffa, Rashan; Isaam, Ilhaam; De Silva, A Pubudu; Dondorp, Arjen M; De Keizer, Nicolette F

2018-01-26

Prognostic models-used in critical care medicine for mortality predictions, for benchmarking and for illness stratification in clinical trials-have been validated predominantly in high-income countries. These results may not be reproducible in low or middle-income countries (LMICs), not only because of different case-mix characteristics but also because of missing predictor variables. The study objective was to systematically review literature on the use of critical care prognostic models in LMICs and assess their ability to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors at hospital discharge of those admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), their calibration, their accuracy, and the manner in which missing values were handled. The PubMed database was searched in March 2017 to identify research articles reporting the use and performance of prognostic models in the evaluation of mortality in ICUs in LMICs. Studies carried out in ICUs in high-income countries or paediatric ICUs and studies that evaluated disease-specific scoring systems, were limited to a specific disease or single prognostic factor, were published only as abstracts, editorials, letters and systematic and narrative reviews or were not in English were excluded. Of the 2233 studies retrieved, 473 were searched and 50 articles reporting 119 models were included. Five articles described the development and evaluation of new models, whereas 114 articles externally validated Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, the Simplified Acute Physiology Score and Mortality Probability Models or versions thereof. Missing values were only described in 34% of studies; exclusion and or imputation by normal values were used. Discrimination, calibration and accuracy were reported in 94.0%, 72.4% and 25% respectively. Good discrimination and calibration were reported in 88.9% and 58.3% respectively. However, only 10 evaluations that reported excellent discrimination also reported good calibration

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Risk Stratification of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD by the Primary Care Physician Using the NAFLD Fibrosis Score.

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Elliot B Tapper

Full Text Available The complications of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD are dependent on the presence of advanced fibrosis. Given the high prevalence of NAFLD in the US, the optimal evaluation of NAFLD likely involves triage by a primary care physician (PCP with advanced disease managed by gastroenterologists.We compared the cost-effectiveness of fibrosis risk-assessment strategies in a cohort of 10,000 simulated American patients with NAFLD performed in either PCP or referral clinics using a decision analytical microsimulation state-transition model. The strategies included use of vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE, the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS, combination testing with NFS and VCTE, and liver biopsy (usual care by a specialist only. NFS and VCTE performance was obtained from a prospective cohort of 164 patients with NAFLD. Outcomes included cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY and correct classification of fibrosis.Risk-stratification by the PCP using the NFS alone costs $5,985 per QALY while usual care costs $7,229/QALY. In the microsimulation, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000, the NFS alone in PCP clinic was the most cost-effective strategy in 94.2% of samples, followed by combination NFS/VCTE in the PCP clinic (5.6% and usual care in 0.2%. The NFS based strategies yield the best biopsy-correct classification ratios (3.5 while the NFS/VCTE and usual care strategies yield more correct-classifications of advanced fibrosis at the cost of 3 and 37 additional biopsies per classification.Risk-stratification of patients with NAFLD primary care clinic is a cost-effective strategy that should be formally explored in clinical practice.

Enumerating bone marrow blasts from nonerythroid cellularity improves outcome prediction in myelodysplastic syndromes and permits a better definition of the intermediate risk category of the Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R).

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Calvo, Xavier; Arenillas, Leonor; Luño, Elisa; Senent, Leonor; Arnan, Montserrat; Ramos, Fernando; Pedro, Carme; Tormo, Mar; Montoro, Julia; Díez-Campelo, María; Blanco, María Laura; Arrizabalaga, Beatriz; Xicoy, Blanca; Bonanad, Santiago; Jerez, Andrés; Nomdedeu, Meritxell; Ferrer, Ana; Sanz, Guillermo F; Florensa, Lourdes

2017-07-01

The Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) has been recognized as the score with the best outcome prediction capability in MDS, but this brought new concerns about the accurate prognostication of patients classified into the intermediate risk category. The correct enumeration of blasts is essential in prognostication of MDS. Recent data evidenced that considering blasts from nonerythroid cellularity (NECs) improves outcome prediction in the context of IPSS and WHO classification. We assessed the percentage of blasts from total nucleated cells (TNCs) and NECs in 3924 MDS patients from the GESMD, 498 of whom were MDS with erythroid predominance (MDS-E). We assessed if calculating IPSS-R by enumerating blasts from NECs improves prognostication of MDS. Twenty-four percent of patients classified into the intermediate category were reclassified into higher-risk categories and showed shorter overall survival (OS) and time to AML evolution than those who remained into the intermediate one. Likewise, a better distribution of patients was observed, since lower-risk patients showed longer survivals than previously whereas higher-risk ones maintained the outcome expected in this poor prognostic group (median OS < 20 months). Furthermore, our approach was particularly useful for detecting patients at risk of dying with AML. Regarding MDS-E, 51% patients classified into the intermediate category were reclassified into higher-risk ones and showed shorter OS and time to AML. In this subgroup of MDS, IPSS-R was capable of splitting our series in five groups with significant differences in OS only when blasts were assessed from NECs. In conclusion, our easy-applicable approach improves prognostic assessment of MDS patients. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Utility of Procalcitonin (PCT and Mid regional pro-Adrenomedullin (MR-proADM in risk stratification of critically ill febrile patients in Emergency Department (ED. A comparison with APACHE II score

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Travaglino Francesco

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of our study was to evaluate the prognostic value of MR-proADM and PCT levels in febrile patients in the ED in comparison with a disease severity index score, the APACHE II score. We also evaluated the ability of MR-proADM and PCT to predict hospitalization. Methods This was an observational, multicentric study. We enrolled 128 patients referred to the ED with high fever and a suspicion of severe infection such as sepsis, lower respiratory tract infections, urinary tract infections, gastrointestinal infections, soft tissue infections, central nervous system infections, or osteomyelitis. The APACHE II score was calculated for each patient. Results MR-proADM median values in controls were 0.5 nmol/l as compared with 0.85 nmol/l in patients (P P . MR-proADM and PCT levels were significantly increased in accordance with the Apache II quartiles (P  respectively. In the respiratory infections, urinary infections, and sepsis-septic shock groups we found a correlation between the Apache II and MR-proADM respectively and MR-proADM and PCT respectively. We evaluated the ability of MR-proADM and PCT to predict hospitalization in patients admitted to our emergency departments complaining of fever. MR-proADM alone had an AUC of 0.694, while PCT alone had an AUC of 0.763. The combined use of PCT and MR-proADM instead showed an AUC of 0.79. Conclusions The present study highlights the way in which MR-proADM and PCT may be helpful to the febrile patient’s care in the ED. Our data support the prognostic role of MR-proADM and PCT in that setting, as demonstrated by the correlation with the APACHE II score. The combined use of the two biomarkers can predict a subsequent hospitalization of febrile patients. The rational use of these two molecules could lead to several advantages, such as faster diagnosis, more accurate risk stratification, and optimization of the treatment, with consequent benefit to the patient and

Hypotension Risk Prediction via Sequential Contrast Patterns of ICU Blood Pressure.

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Ghosh, Shameek; Feng, Mengling; Nguyen, Hung; Li, Jinyan

2016-09-01

Acute hypotension is a significant risk factor for in-hospital mortality at intensive care units. Prolonged hypotension can cause tissue hypoperfusion, leading to cellular dysfunction and severe injuries to multiple organs. Prompt medical interventions are thus extremely important for dealing with acute hypotensive episodes (AHE). Population level prognostic scoring systems for risk stratification of patients are suboptimal in such scenarios. However, the design of an efficient risk prediction system can significantly help in the identification of critical care patients, who are at risk of developing an AHE within a future time span. Toward this objective, a pattern mining algorithm is employed to extract informative sequential contrast patterns from hemodynamic data, for the prediction of hypotensive episodes. The hypotensive and normotensive patient groups are extracted from the MIMIC-II critical care research database, following an appropriate clinical inclusion criteria. The proposed method consists of a data preprocessing step to convert the blood pressure time series into symbolic sequences, using a symbolic aggregate approximation algorithm. Then, distinguishing subsequences are identified using the sequential contrast mining algorithm. These subsequences are used to predict the occurrence of an AHE in a future time window separated by a user-defined gap interval. Results indicate that the method performs well in terms of the prediction performance as well as in the generation of sequential patterns of clinical significance. Hence, the novelty of sequential patterns is in their usefulness as potential physiological biomarkers for building optimal patient risk stratification systems and for further clinical investigation of interesting patterns in critical care patients.

[Risk factors for malignant evolution of gastrointestinal stromal tumors].

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Andrei, S; Andrei, Adriana; Tonea, A; Andronesi, D; Becheanu, G; Dumbravă, Mona; Pechianu, C; Herlea, V; Popescu, I

2007-01-01

Gastrointestinal stromal tumors are the most frequent non-epithelial digestive tumors, being classified in the group of primitive mesenchymal tumors of the digestive tract. These tumors have a non predictable evolution and where stratified regarding the risk for malignant behavior in 4 categories: very low risk, low risk, intermediate risk and high risk. We performed a retrospective non randomised study including the patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors treated in the Department of General Surgery and Liver Transplantation of Fundeni Clinical Institute in the period January 2002 - June 2007, to define the epidemiological, clinico-paraclinical, histological and especially evolutive features of the gastrointestinal stromal tumors from this group, with a special regard to the risk factors for their malignant behavior. The most important risk factors in gastrointestinal stromal tumors are the tumor size and the mitotic index, based on them being realised the classification of Fletcher in the 4 risk categories mentioned above. In our group all the local advanced or metastatic gastrointestinal stromal tumors, regardless of their location, were classified in the group of high risk for the malignant behavior. The gastric location and the epithelioid type were positive prognostic factors, and the complete resection of the tumor, an other important positive prognostic feature, was possible in about 80% of the cases, probably because the gastrointestinal stromal tumors in our study were diagnosed in less advanced evolutive situations, only about one third being metastatic and about 14% being locally advanced at the time of diagnose. The association with other neoplasias was in our cases insignificant, only 5% of the patients presenting concomitant malignant digestive tumors and 7.6% intraabdominal benign tumors. Gastrointestinal stromal tumors remain a challenge for the medical staff, regarding their diagnose and therapeutical management, the stratification of the

Risk estimation of distant metastasis in node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer patients using an RT-PCR based prognostic expression signature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tutt, Andrew; Shu, Henry; Springall, Robert; Cane, Paul; McCallie, Blair; Kam-Morgan, Lauren; Anderson, Steve; Buerger, Horst; Gray, Joe; Bennington, James; Esserman, Laura; Wang, Alice; Hastie, Trevor; Broder, Samuel; Sninsky, John; Brandt, Burkhard; Waldman, Fred; Rowland, Charles; Gillett, Cheryl; Lau, Kit; Chew, Karen; Dai, Hongyue; Kwok, Shirley; Ryder, Kenneth

2008-01-01

Given the large number of genes purported to be prognostic for breast cancer, it would be optimal if the genes identified are not confounded by the continuously changing systemic therapies. The aim of this study was to discover and validate a breast cancer prognostic expression signature for distant metastasis in untreated, early stage, lymph node-negative (N-) estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) patients with extensive follow-up times. 197 genes previously associated with metastasis and ER status were profiled from 142 untreated breast cancer subjects. A 'metastasis score' (MS) representing fourteen differentially expressed genes was developed and evaluated for its association with distant-metastasis-free survival (DMFS). Categorical risk classification was established from the continuous MS and further evaluated on an independent set of 279 untreated subjects. A third set of 45 subjects was tested to determine the prognostic performance of the MS in tamoxifen-treated women. A 14-gene signature was found to be significantly associated (p < 0.05) with distant metastasis in a training set and subsequently in an independent validation set. In the validation set, the hazard ratios (HR) of the high risk compared to low risk groups were 4.02 (95% CI 1.91–8.44) for the endpoint of DMFS and 1.97 (95% CI 1.28 to 3.04) for overall survival after adjustment for age, tumor size and grade. The low and high MS risk groups had 10-year estimates (95% CI) of 96% (90–99%) and 72% (64–78%) respectively, for DMFS and 91% (84–95%) and 68% (61–75%), respectively for overall survival. Performance characteristics of the signature in the two sets were similar. Ki-67 labeling index (LI) was predictive for recurrent disease in the training set, but lost significance after adjustment for the expression signature. In a study of tamoxifen-treated patients, the HR for DMFS in high compared to low risk groups was 3.61 (95% CI 0.86–15.14). The 14-gene signature is significantly

Coronary artery calcification and ECG pattern of left ventricular hypertrophy or strain identify different healthy individuals at risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Diederichsen, Søren Zöga; Gerke, Oke; Olsen, Michael Hecht

2013-01-01

PURPOSE:: To improve risk stratification for development of ischaemic heart disease, several markers have been proposed. Both the presence of coronary artery calcification (CAC) and ECG pattern of left ventricular hypertrophy/strain have been shown to provide independent prognostic information....... In this study, we investigated the association between established risk factors, ECG measurements and the presence of coronary artery calcification. METHOD:: A random sample of healthy men and women aged 50 or 60 years were invited to the screening study. Established risk factors were measured. A noncontrast...... computed tomographic (CT) scan was performed to assess the CAC score. ECG analysis included left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) using the Sokolow-Lyon criteria and the Cornell voltage × QRS duration product, and strain pattern based on ST segment depression and T-wave abnormalities. The association between...

A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models.

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Rapsomaniki, Eleni; White, Ian R; Wood, Angela M; Thompson, Simon G

2012-01-30

New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple-study setting. The method is illustrated in the context of cardiovascular disease risk prediction using an individual participant data meta-analysis. We estimate the number of cardiovascular-disease-free life years gained when statin treatment is allocated based on a risk prediction model with five established risk factors instead of a model with just age, gender and region. We explore methodological issues associated with the multistudy design and show that cost-effectiveness comparisons based on the proposed methodology are robust against a range of modelling assumptions, including adjusting for competing risks. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models‡

Science.gov (United States)

Rapsomaniki, Eleni; White, Ian R; Wood, Angela M; Thompson, Simon G

2012-01-01

New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple-study setting. The method is illustrated in the context of cardiovascular disease risk prediction using an individual participant data meta-analysis. We estimate the number of cardiovascular-disease-free life years gained when statin treatment is allocated based on a risk prediction model with five established risk factors instead of a model with just age, gender and region. We explore methodological issues associated with the multistudy design and show that cost-effectiveness comparisons based on the proposed methodology are robust against a range of modelling assumptions, including adjusting for competing risks. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:21905066

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma prognostic determination using pre-operative serum C-reactive protein levels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Zi-Ying; Liang, Zhen-Xing; Zhuang, Pei-Lin; Chen, Jie-Wei; Cao, Yun; Yan, Li-Xu; Yun, Jing-Ping; Xie, Dan; Cai, Mu-Yan

2016-01-01

Serum C-reactive protein (CRP), an acute inflammatory response biomarker, has been recognized as an indicator of malignant disease progression. However, the prognostic significance of CRP levels collected before tumor removal in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma requires further investigation. We sampled the CRP levels in 140 patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma who underwent hepatectomies with regional lymphadenectomies between 2006 and 2013. A retrospective analysis of the clinicopathological data was performed. We focused on the impact of serum CRP on the patients’ cancer-specific survival and recurrence-free survival rates. High levels of preoperative serum CRP were significantly associated with well-established clinicopathologic features, including gender, advanced tumor stage, and elevated carcinoembryonic antigen and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels (P < 0.05). Univariate analysis demonstrated a significant association between high levels of serum CRP and adverse cancer-specific survival (P = 0.001) and recurrence-free survival (P < 0.001). In patients with stage I/II intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, the serum CRP level was a prognostic indicator for cancer-specific survival. In patients with stage I/II or stage III/IV, the serum CRP level was a prognostic indicator for recurrence-free survival (P < 0.05). Additionally, multivariate analysis identified serum CRP level in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma as an independent prognostic factor (P < 0.05). We confirmed a significant association of elevated pre-operative CRP levels with poor clinical outcomes for the tested patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Our results indicate that the serum CRP level may represent a useful factor for patient stratification in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma management

Plaque Tissue Morphology-Based Stroke Risk Stratification Using Carotid Ultrasound: A Polling-Based PCA Learning Paradigm.

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Saba, Luca; Jain, Pankaj K; Suri, Harman S; Ikeda, Nobutaka; Araki, Tadashi; Singh, Bikesh K; Nicolaides, Andrew; Shafique, Shoaib; Gupta, Ajay; Laird, John R; Suri, Jasjit S

2017-06-01

Severe atherosclerosis disease in carotid arteries causes stenosis which in turn leads to stroke. Machine learning systems have been previously developed for plaque wall risk assessment using morphology-based characterization. The fundamental assumption in such systems is the extraction of the grayscale features of the plaque region. Even though these systems have the ability to perform risk stratification, they lack the ability to achieve higher performance due their inability to select and retain dominant features. This paper introduces a polling-based principal component analysis (PCA) strategy embedded in the machine learning framework to select and retain dominant features, resulting in superior performance. This leads to more stability and reliability. The automated system uses offline image data along with the ground truth labels to generate the parameters, which are then used to transform the online grayscale features to predict the risk of stroke. A set of sixteen grayscale plaque features is computed. Utilizing the cross-validation protocol (K = 10), and the PCA cutoff of 0.995, the machine learning system is able to achieve an accuracy of 98.55 and 98.83%corresponding to the carotidfar wall and near wall plaques, respectively. The corresponding reliability of the system was 94.56 and 95.63%, respectively. The automated system was validated against the manual risk assessment system and the precision of merit for same cross-validation settings and PCA cutoffs are 98.28 and 93.92%for the far and the near wall, respectively.PCA-embedded morphology-based plaque characterization shows a powerful strategy for risk assessment and can be adapted in clinical settings.

Selection of high risk groups among prognostically favorable patients with breast cancer.

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Andersen, J A; Fischermann, K; Hou-Jensen, K; Henriksen, E; Andersen, K W; Johansen, H; Brincker, H; Mouridsen, H T; Castberg, T; Rossing, N; Rørth, M

1981-01-01

In a prospective, nationwide, decentralized breast cancer project conducted by The Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group (DBCG) the recurrence rate within the first year after surgery was analysed in relation to tumor anaplasia. One thousand forty-eight patients met the requirements of eligibility, i.e. tumor size less than or equal to 5 cm with negative axillary nodes, and no skin or deep invasion. The recurrence rates in tumors with anaplasia Grades I, II, and III were 4, 9, and 14%, respectively (p = 0.001). Therefore, it seems possible, prospectively, among otherwise prognostically favorable patients, to select a group with high risk of recurrence which might benefit from adjuvant systemic therapy. PMID:7247527

[Prognostic factors of early breast cancer].

Science.gov (United States)

Almagro, Elena; González, Cynthia S; Espinosa, Enrique

2016-02-19

Decision about the administration of adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer depends on the evaluation of prognostic factors. Lymph node status, tumor size and grade of differentiation are classical variables in this regard, and can be complemented by hormonal receptor status and HER2 expression. These factors can be combined into prognostic indexes to better estimate the risk of relapse or death. Other factors are less important. Gene profiles have emerged in recent years to identify low-risk patients who can forgo adjuvant chemotherapy. A number of profiles are available and can be used in selected cases. In the future, gene profiling will be used to select patients for treatment with new targeted therapies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Optimizing risk stratification in heart failure and the selection of candidates for heart transplantation.

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Pereira-da-Silva, Tiago; M Soares, Rui; Papoila, Ana Luísa; Pinto, Iola; Feliciano, Joana; Almeida-Morais, Luís; Abreu, Ana; Cruz Ferreira, Rui

2018-02-01

Selecting patients for heart transplantation is challenging. We aimed to identify the most important risk predictors in heart failure and an approach to optimize the selection of candidates for heart transplantation. Ambulatory patients followed in our center with symptomatic heart failure and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40% prospectively underwent a comprehensive baseline assessment including clinical, laboratory, electrocardiographic, echocardiographic, and cardiopulmonary exercise testing parameters. All patients were followed for 60 months. The combined endpoint was cardiac death, urgent heart transplantation or need for mechanical circulatory support, up to 36 months. In the 263 enrolled patients (75% male, age 54±12 years), 54 events occurred. The independent predictors of adverse outcome were ventilatory efficiency (VE/VCO 2 ) slope (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.11-1.18), creatinine level (HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.14-4.36), and left ventricular ejection fraction (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.99). VE/VCO 2 slope was the most accurate risk predictor at any follow-up time analyzed (up to 60 months). The threshold of 39.0 yielded high specificity (97%), discriminated a worse or better prognosis than that reported for post-heart transplantation, and outperformed peak oxygen consumption thresholds of 10.0 or 12.0 ml/kg/min. For low-risk patients (VE/VCO 2 slope <39.0), sodium and creatinine levels and variations in end-tidal carbon dioxide partial pressure on exercise identified those with excellent prognosis. VE/VCO 2 slope was the most accurate parameter for risk stratification in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. Those with VE/VCO 2 slope ≥39.0 may benefit from heart transplantation. Copyright © 2018 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rapsomaniki, E.; White, I.R.; Wood, A.M.; Thompson, S.G.; Feskens, E.J.M.; Kromhout, D.

2012-01-01

New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit)

Prognostic variables in patients with cirrhosis and oesophageal varices without prior bleeding

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, S; Bendtsen, F; Christensen, E

1994-01-01

serum bilirubin (p 10 (p associated with a higher risk. In conclusion, the results support the prognostic value of metabolic variables as described earlier...... a significant relation with an increased risk of bleeding or death: high plasma volume (p 10 (p .... The prognostic significance of central circulation time stresses the importance of the hyperdynamic systemic circulation in assessing the increased risk of bleeding or death.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)...

Thermal Stratification in Vertical Mantle Tanks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Søren; Furbo, Simon

2001-01-01

It is well known that it is important to have a high degree of thermal stratification in the hot water storage tank to achieve a high thermal performance of SDHW systems. This study is concentrated on thermal stratification in vertical mantle tanks. Experiments based on typical operation conditions...... are carried out to investigate how the thermal stratification is affected by different placements of the mantle inlet. The heat transfer between the solar collector fluid in the mantle and the domestic water in the inner tank is analysed by CFD-simulations. Furthermore, the flow pattern in the vertical mantle...

A Comparative Review of Stratification Texts and Readers

Science.gov (United States)

Peoples, Clayton D.

2012-01-01

Social stratification is a core substantive area within sociology. There are a number of textbooks and readers available on the market that deal with this central topic. In this article, I conduct a comparative review of (a) four stratification textbooks and (b) four stratification readers. (Contains 2 tables.)

Systemic risk score evaluation in ischemic stroke patients (SCALA): a prospective cross sectional study in 85 German stroke units.

Science.gov (United States)

Weimar, Christian; Goertler, Michael; Röther, Joachim; Ringelstein, E Bernd; Darius, Harald; Nabavi, Darius Günther; Kim, In-Ha; Theobald, Karlheinz; Diener, Han-Christoph

2007-11-01

Stratification of patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic stroke (IS) by risk of recurrent stroke can contribute to optimized secondary prevention. We therefore aimed to assess cardiovascular risk factor profiles of consecutive patients hospitalized with TIA/IS to stratify the risk of recurrent stroke according to the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and of future cardiovascular events according to the ankle brachial index (ABI) as a marker of generalized atherosclerosis In this cross-sectional observational study, 85 neurological stroke units throughout Germany documented cardiovascular risk factor profiles of 10 consecutive TIA/IS patients on standardized questionnaires. Screening for PAD was done with Doppler ultrasonography to calculate the ABI. A total of 852 patients (57% men) with a mean age of 67+/-12.4 years were included of whom 82.9 % had IS. The median National Institutes of Health stroke sum score was 4 (TIA: 1). Arterial hypertension was reported in 71%, diabetes mellitus in 26%, clinical PAD in 10%, and an ABI or = 3 was observed in 58%, which in two previous retrospective analyses corresponded to a recurrent stroke risk of > or = 4%/year. The correlation between the ESRS and the ABI was low (r = 0.21). A high proportion of patients had asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease and a considerable risk of recurrent stroke according to the ABI and ESRS category. The prognostic accuracy as well as the potential benefit of various risk stratification scores in secondary stroke prevention require validation in a larger prospective study.

Stratification studies in components of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Randorf, J.A.

1997-01-01

The applicability of two stratification criteria during loss-of-coolant (LOCA) conditions was studied. The first criteria was developed for addressing cold water injection-induced stratification. The second criteria applied to downcomer/cold leg junction stratification. Both criteria provided predictions consistent with measured conditions during small break loss-of-coolant tests

Effect of sample stratification on dairy GWAS results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ma Li

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Artificial insemination and genetic selection are major factors contributing to population stratification in dairy cattle. In this study, we analyzed the effect of sample stratification and the effect of stratification correction on results of a dairy genome-wide association study (GWAS. Three methods for stratification correction were used: the efficient mixed-model association expedited (EMMAX method accounting for correlation among all individuals, a generalized least squares (GLS method based on half-sib intraclass correlation, and a principal component analysis (PCA approach. Results Historical pedigree data revealed that the 1,654 contemporary cows in the GWAS were all related when traced through approximately 10–15 generations of ancestors. Genome and phenotype stratifications had a striking overlap with the half-sib structure. A large elite half-sib family of cows contributed to the detection of favorable alleles that had low frequencies in the general population and high frequencies in the elite cows and contributed to the detection of X chromosome effects. All three methods for stratification correction reduced the number of significant effects. EMMAX method had the most severe reduction in the number of significant effects, and the PCA method using 20 principal components and GLS had similar significance levels. Removal of the elite cows from the analysis without using stratification correction removed many effects that were also removed by the three methods for stratification correction, indicating that stratification correction could have removed some true effects due to the elite cows. SNP effects with good consensus between different methods and effect size distributions from USDA’s Holstein genomic evaluation included the DGAT1-NIBP region of BTA14 for production traits, a SNP 45kb upstream from PIGY on BTA6 and two SNPs in NIBP on BTA14 for protein percentage. However, most of these consensus effects had

Prognostic significance of smoking in addition to established risk factors in patients with Dukes B and C colorectal cancer: a retrospective analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Diamantis, N; Xynos, I D; Amptulah, S; Karadima, M; Skopelitis, H; Tsavaris, N

2013-01-01

To investigate the prognostic significance of smoking in addition to established risk factors in patients with Dukes stage B and C colorectal cancer (CRC). 291 consecutive non-selected CRC patients were studied retrospectively. Twenty-three variables were examined using a regression statistical model to identify relevant prognostic factors related to disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). On multivariate analysis DFS was found to be negatively affected in patients with a smoking history of ≤10 pack-years vs. non-smokers (p<0.016). Additionally, performance status (PS)<90 (p<0.001), Dukes stage C (p<0.001) and elevated tumor markers (p<0.001) at the time of diagnosis were found to adversely affect DFS. Smoking also had a significant association with relapse. Patients with a smoking history of ≤10 pack-years had 2.45 (p<0.018) higher risk of recurrence compared to patients with no smoking history. OS was influenced by Karnofsky performance status (PS), Dukes stage, and elevated tumor markers. In particular patients with PS< 90 had a 4.69-fold higher risk of death (p<0.001) than patients with better PS. Stage C disease was associated with 2.27-fold higher risk of death (p<0.001) than stage B disease, and patients with elevated tumor markers at the time of diagnosis had 2.74-fold higher risk of death (p<0.014) when compared to those whose tumor markers were normal at presentation. Our study associates smoking and relapse incidence in non-clinical- trial CRC patients and reiterates the prognostic significance of PS, stage and tumor markers at the time of diagnosis.

The risk and prognostic impact of definite stent thrombosis or in-stent restenosis after coronary stent implantation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thayssen, Per; Jensen, Lisette Okkels; Lassen, Jens Flensted

2012-01-01

Aims: Data are limited on the prognostic impact of stent thrombosis and in-stent restenosis in patients treated with coronary stents. We examined the prognostic impact of stent thrombosis and in-stent restenosis in patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Methods and results......: All patients who underwent stent implantation from 2002 to 2005 were identified in the Western Denmark Heart Registry. The hazard ratio (HR) for death associated with stent thrombosis or in-stent restenosis was estimated with a Cox regression analysis with stent thrombosis or in-stent restenosis...... as time-dependent variables. A total of 12,277 patients were treated with stent implantation. Stent thrombosis was observed in 111 (0.9%) patients and in-stent restenosis in 503 (4.1%) patients within 12 months after the index PCI. Occurrence of stent thrombosis was associated with an increased risk...

Novel risk stratification with time course assessment of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takeshi Yagyu

Full Text Available Patients with acute heart failure (AHF show various clinical courses during hospitalization. We aimed to identify time course predictors of in-hospital mortality and to establish a sequentially assessable risk model.We enrolled 1,035 consecutive AHF patients into derivation (n = 597 and validation (n = 438 cohorts. For risk assessments at admission, we utilized Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure (GWTG-HF risk scores. We examined significant predictors of in-hospital mortality from 11 variables obtained during hospitalization and developed a risk stratification model using multiple logistic regression analysis. Across both cohorts, 86 patients (8.3% died during hospitalization. Using backward stepwise selection, we identified five time-course predictors: catecholamine administration, minimum platelet concentration, maximum blood urea nitrogen, total bilirubin, and C-reactive protein levels; and established a time course risk score that could sequentially assess a patient's risk status. The addition of a time course risk score improved the discriminative ability of the GWTG-HF risk score (c-statistics in derivation and validation cohorts: 0.776 to 0.888 [p = 0.002] and 0.806 to 0.902 [p<0.001], respectively. A calibration plot revealed a good relationship between observed and predicted in-hospital mortalities in both cohorts (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistics: 6.049 [p = 0.642] and 5.993 [p = 0.648], respectively. In each group of initial low-intermediate risk (GWTG-HF risk score <47 and initial high risk (GWTG-HF risk score ≥47, in-hospital mortality was about 6- to 9-fold higher in the high time course risk score group than in the low-intermediate time course risk score group (initial low-intermediate risk group: 20.3% versus 2.2% [p<0.001], initial high risk group: 57.6% versus 8.5% [p<0.001].A time course assessment related to in-hospital mortality during the hospitalization of AHF patients can clearly categorize a patient's on

Prognostic classification of MDS is improved by the inclusion of FISH panel testing with conventional cytogenetics.

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Kokate, Prajakta; Dalvi, Rupa; Koppaka, Neeraja; Mandava, Swarna

2017-10-01

Cytogenetics is a critical independent prognostic factor in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Conventional cytogenetics (CC) and Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) Panel Testing are extensively used for the prognostic stratification of MDS, although the FISH test is not yet a bona fide component of the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS). The present study compares the utility of CC and FISH to detect chromosomal anomalies and in prognostic categorization. GTG-Banding and FISH Panel Testing specifically for -5/-5q, -7/-7q, +8 and -20q was performed on whole blood or bone marrow samples from 136 patients with MDS. Chromosomal anomalies were found in 40 cases by CC, including three novel translocations. FISH identified at least one anomaly in 54/136 (39.7%) cases. More than one anomaly was found in 18/54 (33.3%) cases, therefore, overall FISH identified 75 anomalies of which 32 (42.6%) were undetected by CC. FISH provided additional information in cases with CC failure and in cases with a normal karyotype. Further, in ten cases with an abnormal karyotype, FISH could identify additional anomalies, increasing the number of abnormalities per patient. Although CC is the gold standard in the cytogenetic profiling of MDS, FISH has proven to be an asset in identifying additional abnormalities. The number of anomalies per patient can predict the prognosis in MDS and hence, FISH contributed towards prognostic re-categorization. The FISH Panel testing should be used as an adjunct to CC, irrespective of the adequacy of the number of metaphases in CC, as it improves the prognostic classification of MDS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Plasma levels of the MMP-9:TIMP-1 complex as prognostic biomarker in breast cancer: a retrospective study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorsen, Stine B; Møller, Susanne; Brünner, Nils; Schrohl, Anne-Sofie; Stenvang, Jan; Christensen, Sarah LT; Würtz, Sidse Ø; Lundberg, Martin; Nielsen, Birgitte S; Vinther, Lena; Knowles, Mick; Gee, Nick; Fredriksson, Simon

2013-01-01

Worldwide more than one million women are annually diagnosed with breast cancer. A considerable fraction of these women receive systemic adjuvant therapy; however, some are cured by primary surgery and radiotherapy alone. Prognostic biomarkers guide stratification of patients into different risk groups and hence improve management of breast cancer patients. Plasma levels of Matrix Metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) and its natural inhibitor Tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1 (TIMP-1) have previously been associated with poor patient outcome and resistance to certain forms of chemotherapy. To pursue additional prognostic information from MMP-9 and TIMP-1, the level of the MMP-9 and TIMP-1 complex (MMP-9:TIMP-1) was investigated in plasma from breast cancer patients. Detection of protein:protein complexes in plasma was performed using a commercially available ELISA kit and, for the first time, the highly sensitive in-solution proximity ligation assay (PLA). We screened plasma from 465 patients with primary breast cancer for prognostic value of the MMP-9:TIMP-1 complex. Both assays were validated and applied for quantification of MMP-9:TIMP-1 concentration. In this retrospective study, we analyzed the association between the concentration of the MMP-9:TIMP-1 complex and clinicopathological data and disease free survival (DFS) in univariate and multivariate survival analyses. Following successful validation both assays were applied for MMP-9:TIMP-1 measurements. Of the clinicopathological parameters, only menopausal status demonstrated significant association with the MMP-9:TIMP-1 complex; P = 0.03 and P = 0.028 for the ELISA and PLA measurements, respectively. We found no correlation between the MMP-9:TIMP-1 protein complex and DFS neither in univariate nor in multivariate survival analyses. Despite earlier reports linking MMP-9 and TIMP-1 with prognosis in breast cancer patients, we here demonstrate that plasma levels of the MMP-9:TIMP-1 protein complex hold no

A genetic fuzzy system for unstable angina risk assessment.

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Dong, Wei; Huang, Zhengxing; Ji, Lei; Duan, Huilong

2014-02-18

Unstable Angina (UA) is widely accepted as a critical phase of coronary heart disease with patients exhibiting widely varying risks. Early risk assessment of UA is at the center of the management program, which allows physicians to categorize patients according to the clinical characteristics and stratification of risk and different prognosis. Although many prognostic models have been widely used for UA risk assessment in clinical practice, a number of studies have highlighted possible shortcomings. One serious drawback is that existing models lack the ability to deal with the intrinsic uncertainty about the variables utilized. In order to help physicians refine knowledge for the stratification of UA risk with respect to vagueness in information, this paper develops an intelligent system combining genetic algorithm and fuzzy association rule mining. In detail, it models the input information's vagueness through fuzzy sets, and then applies a genetic fuzzy system on the acquired fuzzy sets to extract the fuzzy rule set for the problem of UA risk assessment. The proposed system is evaluated using a real data-set collected from the cardiology department of a Chinese hospital, which consists of 54 patient cases. 9 numerical patient features and 17 categorical patient features that appear in the data-set are selected in the experiments. The proposed system made the same decisions as the physician in 46 (out of a total of 54) tested cases (85.2%). By comparing the results that are obtained through the proposed system with those resulting from the physician's decision, it has been found that the developed model is highly reflective of reality. The proposed system could be used for educational purposes, and with further improvements, could assist and guide young physicians in their daily work.

Stratification devices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Elsa; Furbo, Simon

2008-01-01

Thermal stratification in the storage tank is extremely important in order to achieve high thermal performance of a solar heating system. High temperatures in the top of the storage tank and low temperatures in the bottom of the storage tank lead to the best operation conditions for any solar hea...

Safety profile and utility of treadmill exercise in patients with high-gradient hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sorensen, Lars Lindholm; Liang, Hsin-Yueh; Pinheiro, Aurelio

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Exercise echocardiography in the evaluation of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) provides valuable information for risk stratification, selection of optimal treatment, and prognostication. However, HCM patients with left ventricular outflow tract gradients ≥30mm Hg are often excluded ...

Independent prognostic value of eosinophil and mast cell infiltration in colorectal cancer tissue

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Hans Jørgen; Hansen, Ulla; Christensen, Ib Jarle

1999-01-01

-assisted microscope, which allowed semi-automated quantification of cells within a fixed area. Total white cells and individual counts of eosinophils, neutrophils, mast cells, lymphocytes, and plasma cells were evaluated in every tumour specimen. Stratification into four groups with similar numbers of events was used...... age ( p=0.0003), and tumour location in the rectum predicted poor survival, while high counts of eosinophils ( p=0.006) and mast cells ( p=0.02) predicted good survival. Tumour-associated eosinophilia and mastocytosis appear to be independent prognostic variables in colorectal cancer. Future studies...... should investigate the potential biological role of tumour tissue eosinophils and mast cells in the modulation of tumour growth....

Dynamo Tests for Stratification Below the Core-Mantle Boundary

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Olson, P.; Landeau, M.

2017-12-01

Evidence from seismology, mineral physics, and core dynamics points to a layer with an overall stable stratification in the Earth's outer core, possibly thermal in origin, extending below the core-mantle boundary (CMB) for several hundred kilometers. In contrast, energetic deep mantle convection with elevated heat flux implies locally unstable thermal stratification below the CMB in places, consistent with interpretations of non-dipole geomagnetic field behavior that favor upwelling flows below the CMB. Here, we model the structure of convection and magnetic fields in the core using numerical dynamos with laterally heterogeneous boundary heat flux in order to rationalize this conflicting evidence. Strongly heterogeneous boundary heat flux generates localized convection beneath the CMB that coexists with an overall stable stratification there. Partially stratified dynamos have distinctive time average magnetic field structures. Without stratification or with stratification confined to a thin layer, the octupole component is small and the CMB magnetic field structure includes polar intensity minima. With more extensive stratification, the octupole component is large and the magnetic field structure includes intense patches or high intensity lobes in the polar regions. Comparisons with the time-averaged geomagnetic field are generally favorable for partial stratification in a thin layer but unfavorable for stratification in a thick layer beneath the CMB.

Usefulness of semiquantitative analysis of dipyridamole-thallium-201 redistribution for improving risk stratification before vascular surgery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levinson, J.R.; Boucher, C.A.; Coley, C.M.; Guiney, T.E.; Strauss, H.W.; Eagle, K.A.

1990-01-01

Preoperative dipyridamole-thallium-201 scanning is sensitive in identifying patients prone to ischemic cardiac complications after vascular surgery, but most patients with redistribution do not have an event after surgery. Therefore, its positive predictive value is limited. To determine which patients with thallium redistribution are at highest risk, dipyridamole-thallium-201 images were interpreted semiquantitatively. Sixty-two consecutive patients with redistribution on preoperative dipyridamole-thallium-201 planar imaging studies were identified. Each thallium scan was then analyzed independently by 2 observers for the number of myocardial segments out of 15, the number of thallium views out of 3 and the number of coronary artery territories with redistribution. Seventeen patients (27%) had postoperative ischemic events, including unstable angina pectoris, ischemic pulmonary edema, myocardial infarction and cardiac death. Thallium predictors of ischemic operative complications included thallium redistribution greater than or equal to 4 myocardial segments (p = 0.03), greater than or equal to 2 of the 3 planar views (p = 0.005) and greater than or equal to 2 coronary territories (p = 0.007). No patient with redistribution in only 1 view had an ischemic event (0 of 15). Thus, determining the extent of redistribution by dipyridamole-thallium-201 scanning improves risk stratification before vascular surgery. Patients with greater numbers of myocardial segments and greater numbers of coronary territories showing thallium-201 redistribution are at higher risk for ischemic cardiac complications. In contrast, when the extent of thallium redistribution is limited, there is a lower risk despite the presence of redistribution

Validation of risk stratification schemes for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation: nationwide cohort study.

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Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Lip, Gregory Y H; Hansen, Morten Lock; Hansen, Peter Riis; Tolstrup, Janne Schurmann; Lindhardsen, Jesper; Selmer, Christian; Ahlehoff, Ole; Olsen, Anne-Marie Schjerning; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

2011-01-31

To evaluate the individual risk factors composing the CHADS(2) (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥ 75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke) score and the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc (CHA(2)DS(2)-Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category) score and to calculate the capability of the schemes to predict thromboembolism. Registry based cohort study. Nationwide data on patients admitted to hospital with atrial fibrillation. Population All patients with atrial fibrillation not treated with vitamin K antagonists in Denmark in the period 1997-2006. Stroke and thromboembolism. Of 121,280 patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation, 73,538 (60.6%) fulfilled the study inclusion criteria. In patients at "low risk" (score = 0), the rate of thromboembolism per 100 person years was 1.67 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 1.89) with CHADS(2) and 0.78 (0.58 to 1.04) with CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc at one year's follow-up. In patients at "intermediate risk" (score = 1), this rate was 4.75 (4.45 to 5.07) with CHADS(2) and 2.01 (1.70 to 2.36) with CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc. The rate of thromboembolism depended on the individual risk factors composing the scores, and both schemes underestimated the risk associated with previous thromboembolic events. When patients were categorised into low, intermediate, and high risk groups, C statistics at 10 years' follow-up were 0.812 (0.796 to 0.827) with CHADS(2) and 0.888 (0.875 to 0.900) with CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc. The risk associated with a specific risk stratification score depended on the risk factors composing the score. CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc performed better than CHADS(2) in predicting patients at high risk, and those categorised as low risk by CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc were truly at low risk for thromboembolism.

Diagnosis of myocardial infarction using the new universal definition: is it enough for risk stratification and guiding decision for revascularization?

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Calé, Rita; Ferreira, Jorge; Aguiar, Carlos; Santos, Nuno; Carmo, Pedro; Figueira, João; Raposo, Luis; Gonçalves, Pedro; Silva, José Aniceto

2010-12-01

Abstract Objectives: Evaluate the new ESC/ACCF/AHA/WHF universal definition of myocardial infarction (MI) in relation to its prognostic implications and the role for guiding decision for revascularization. It was also compared with the multivariable based GRACE Risk Score (GRS). Single centre registry of 389 consecutive patients admitted with non-ST-segment elevation (NSTE) ACS. We calculated the adjusted HR & 95%CI for death/MI at 30-days and one-year follow-up, between the presence or absence of MI using: (1) universal definition: > 99th URL for cTnI (> 0.06 ng/ml) or MBm (> 3.2 ng/ml); (2) MBm > 2 × URL (> 12.2 ng/ml); 3) old WHO: MBact > 2 × URL (> 32U/l). Logistic analysis was performed to test the interaction between tertiles of biomarkers or GRS and the effect of revascularization on the outcome. The universal definition increased the incidence of MI in 3.5-fold for cTnI, but was not an independent predictor of outcome. The GRS was the only independent predictor of prognosis at 30-days and one-year. The interaction with the prognostic impact of revascularization was only present for the GRS categorized by tertiles. In a contemporary unselected population with NSTE-ACS, the universal definition of MI alone was not adequate for risk assessment and revascularization decision making. These purposes were fully addressed with the GRS.

Patient Characteristics, Treatment Patterns and Prognostic Factors in Squamous Cell Bladder Cancer.

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Zahoor, Haris; Elson, Paul; Stephenson, Andrew; Haber, Georges-Pascal; Kaouk, Jihad; Fergany, Amr; Lee, Byron; Koshkin, Vadim; Ornstein, Moshe; Gilligan, Timothy; Garcia, Jorge A; Rini, Brian; Grivas, Petros

2018-04-01

Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is an uncommon histologic subtype of bladder cancer with limited data on treatment patterns, outcomes, and prognostic factors. "Real world" information might inform decision-making, prognostic estimates, and clinical trial designs. A retrospective review of patients with tissue-confirmed bladder SCC treated at Cleveland Clinic from 2007 to 2016 was performed. Data on patient characteristics, treatment patterns, and clinical follow-up were extracted. Univariate analysis was used to identify predictors of overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS) and time to recurrence. Of 58 identified patients, 42 had complete data available. Median age at diagnosis was 67 years (range, 37-90). Hematuria was the most common (71%) presenting symptom; 32 patients had pure SCC and 10 predominant/extensive squamous differentiation without major differences noted in clinicopathologic variables or outcomes among those 2 groups. Overall, 35 patients underwent cystectomy with 5 receiving neoadjuvant and 1 adjuvant chemotherapy, whereas 3 had chemotherapy for recurrent disease. Of patients with cystectomy, most had locally advanced disease (75% pT3/4, 35% pN+). Overall, 10 patients progressed and 14 died; median OS was not reached. The 2-year estimated OS, RFS, and cumulative incidence of recurrence were 61% ± 9%, 50% ± 9%, and 32% ± 9%, respectively. Hydronephrosis, older age (70 years or older), lymphovascular invasion, nodal metastases, and advanced T stage were associated with 1 or more poor outcomes. In patients with resectable bladder SCC, radical cystectomy remains the main treatment modality. The role of perioperative chemotherapy remains unclear. The identified prognostic factors might be helpful for prognostication, treatment discussion, and trial eligibility/stratification. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

External validation of the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter cohort study.

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Borzio, Mauro; Dionigi, Elena; Rossini, Angelo; Marignani, Massimo; Sacco, Rodolfo; De Sio, Ilario; Bertolini, Emanuela; Francica, Giampiero; Giacomin, Anna; Parisi, Giancarlo; Vicari, Susanna; Toldi, Anna; Salmi, Andrea; Boccia, Sergio; Mitra, Mario; Fornari, Fabio

2017-11-22

Several staging systems for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been developed. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system is considered the best in predicting survival, although limitations have emerged. Recently, the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) prognostic system, integrating ITA.LI.CA tumor staging (stages 0, A, B1-3, C) with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, and alpha-fetoprotein with a strong ability to predict survival, was proposed. The aim of our study was to provide an external validation of the ITA.LI.CA system in an independent real-life occidental cohort of HCCs. From September 2008 to April 2016, 1,508 patients with cirrhosis and incident HCC were consecutively enrolled in 27 Italian institutions. Clinical, tumor, and treatment-related variables were collected, and patients were stratified according to scores of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system, ITA.LI.CA prognostic system, Hong Kong Liver Cancer system, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program, Japanese Integrated System, and model to estimate survival in ambulatory patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. Harrell's C-index, Akaike information criterion, and likelihood-ratio test were used to compare the predictive ability of the different systems. A subgroup analysis for treatment category (curative versus palliative) was performed. Median follow-up was 44 months (interquartile range, 23-63 months), and median overall survival was 34 months (interquartile range, 13-82 months). Median age was 71 years, and patients were mainly male individuals and hepatitis C virus carriers. According to ITA.LI.CA tumor staging, 246 patients were in stage 0, 472 were in stage A, 657 were in stages B1/3, and 133 were in stage C. The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system showed the best discriminatory ability (C-index = 0.77) and monotonicity of gradients compared to other systems, and its superiority was also confirmed after stratification for treatment strategy

Monocarboxylate transporters 1-4 in NSCLC: MCT1 is an independent prognostic marker for survival.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marte Eilertsen

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs 1-4 are lactate transporters crucial for cancers cells adaption to upregulated glycolysis. Herein, we aimed to explore their prognostic impact on disease-specific survival (DSS in both cancer and tumor stromal cells in NSCLC. METHODS: Tissue micro arrays (TMAs were constructed, representing both cancer and stromal tumor tissue from 335 unselected patients diagnosed with stage I-IIIA NSCLC. Immunohistochemistry was used to evaluate the expression of MCT1-4. RESULTS: In univariate analyses; ↓ MCT1 (P = 0.021 and ↑ MCT4 (P = 0.027 expression in cancer cells, and ↑ MCT1 (P = 0.003, ↓ MCT2 (P = 0.006, ↓ MCT3 (P = 0.020 expression in stromal cells correlated significantly with a poor DSS. In multivariate analyses; ↓ MCT1 expression in cancer cells (HR: 1.9, CI 95%: 1.3-2.8, P = 0.001, ↓ MCT2 (HR: 2.4, CI 95%: 1.5-3.9, P<0.001, ↓ MCT3 (HR: 1.9, CI 95%: 1.1-3.5, P = 0.031 and ↑ MCT1 expression in stromal cells (HR: 1.7, CI 95%: 1.1-2.7, P = 0.016 were significant independent poor prognostic markers for DSS. CONCLUSIONS: We provide novel information of MCT1 as a candidate marker for prognostic stratification in NSCLC. Interestingly, MCT1 shows diverging, independent prognostic impact in the cancer cell and stromal cell compartments.

Unavailability of thymidine kinase does not preclude the use of German comprehensive prognostic index: results of an external validation analysis in early chronic lymphocytic leukemia and comparison with MD Anderson Cancer Center model.

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Molica, Stefano; Giannarelli, Diana; Mirabelli, Rosanna; Levato, Luciano; Russo, Antonio; Linardi, Maria; Gentile, Massimo; Morabito, Fortunato

2016-01-01

A comprehensive prognostic index that includes clinical (i.e., age, sex, ECOG performance status), serum (i.e., ß2-microglobulin, thymidine kinase [TK]), and molecular (i.e., IGVH mutational status, del 17p, del 11q) markers developed by the German CLL Study Group (GCLLSG) was externally validated in a prospective, community-based cohort consisting of 338 patients with early chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) using as endpoint the time to first treatment (TTFT). Because serum TK was not available, a slightly modified version of the model based on seven instead of eight prognostic variables was used. By German index, 62.9% of patients were scored as having low-risk CLL (score 0-2), whereas 37.1% had intermediate-risk CLL (score 3-5). This stratification translated into a significant difference in the TTFT [HR = 4.21; 95% C.I. (2.71-6.53); P reliability [HR = 2.73; 95% C.I. (1.79-4.17); P German score. The c-statistic of the MDACC model was 0.65 (range, 0.53-0.78) a level below that of the German index [0.71 (range, 0.60-0.82)] and below the accepted 0.7 threshold necessary to have value at the individual patient level. Results of this external comparative validation analysis strongly support the German score as the benchmark for comparison of any novel prognostic scheme aimed at evaluating the TTFT in patients with early CLL even when a modified version which does not include TK is utilized. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A novel prognostic six-CpG signature in glioblastomas.

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Yin, An-An; Lu, Nan; Etcheverry, Amandine; Aubry, Marc; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill; Zhang, Lu-Hua; Mosser, Jean; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Xiang; Liu, Yu-He; He, Ya-Long

2018-03-01

We aimed to identify a clinically useful biomarker using DNA methylation-based information to optimize individual treatment of patients with glioblastoma (GBM). A six-CpG panel was identified by incorporating genome-wide DNA methylation data and clinical information of three distinct discovery sets and was combined using a risk-score model. Different validation sets of GBMs and lower-grade gliomas and different statistical methods were implemented for prognostic evaluation. An integrative analysis of multidimensional TCGA data was performed to molecularly characterize different risk tumors. The six-CpG risk-score signature robustly predicted overall survival (OS) in all discovery and validation cohorts and in a treatment-independent manner. It also predicted progression-free survival (PFS) in available patients. The multimarker epigenetic signature was demonstrated as an independent prognosticator and had better performance than known molecular indicators such as glioma-CpG island methylator phenotype (G-CIMP) and proneural subtype. The defined risk subgroups were molecularly distinct; high-risk tumors were biologically more aggressive with concordant activation of proangiogenic signaling at multimolecular levels. Accordingly, we observed better OS benefits of bevacizumab-contained therapy to high-risk patients in independent sets, supporting its implication in guiding usage of antiangiogenic therapy. Finally, the six-CpG signature refined the risk classification based on G-CIMP and MGMT methylation status. The novel six-CpG signature is a robust and independent prognostic indicator for GBMs and is of promising value to improve personalized management. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome Without Diabetes or Cardiovascular Disease: Usefulness of Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score.

Science.gov (United States)

Masson, Walter; Epstein, Teo; Huerín, Melina; Lobo, Lorenzo Martín; Molinero, Graciela; Angel, Adriana; Masson, Gerardo; Millán, Diana; De Francesca, Salvador; Vitagliano, Laura; Cafferata, Alberto; Losada, Pablo

2017-09-01

The estimated cardiovascular risk determined by the different risk scores, could be heterogeneous in patients with metabolic syndrome without diabetes or vascular disease. This risk stratification could be improved by detecting subclinical carotid atheromatosis. To estimate the cardiovascular risk measured by different scores in patients with metabolic syndrome and analyze its association with the presence of carotid plaque. Non-diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome (Adult Treatment Panel III definition) without cardiovascular disease were enrolled. The Framingham score, the Reynolds score, the new score proposed by the 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator were calculated. Prevalence of carotid plaque was determined by ultrasound examination. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed. A total of 238 patients were enrolled. Most patients were stratified as "low risk" by Framingham score (64%) and Reynolds score (70.1%). Using the 2013 ACC/AHA score, 45.3% of the population had a risk ≥7.5%. A significant correlation was found between classic scores but the agreement (concordance) was moderate. The correlation between classical scores and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator was poor. Overall, the prevalence of carotid plaque was 28.2%. The continuous metabolic syndrome score used in our study showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque (area under the curve 0.752). In this population, the calculated cardiovascular risk was heterogenic. The prevalence of carotid plaque was high. The Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque.

External validation of prognostic models to predict risk of gestational diabetes mellitus in one Dutch cohort: prospective multicentre cohort study.

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Lamain-de Ruiter, Marije; Kwee, Anneke; Naaktgeboren, Christiana A; de Groot, Inge; Evers, Inge M; Groenendaal, Floris; Hering, Yolanda R; Huisjes, Anjoke J M; Kirpestein, Cornel; Monincx, Wilma M; Siljee, Jacqueline E; Van 't Zelfde, Annewil; van Oirschot, Charlotte M; Vankan-Buitelaar, Simone A; Vonk, Mariska A A W; Wiegers, Therese A; Zwart, Joost J; Franx, Arie; Moons, Karel G M; Koster, Maria P H

2016-08-30

 To perform an external validation and direct comparison of published prognostic models for early prediction of the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus, including predictors applicable in the first trimester of pregnancy.  External validation of all published prognostic models in large scale, prospective, multicentre cohort study.  31 independent midwifery practices and six hospitals in the Netherlands.  Women recruited in their first trimester (diabetes mellitus of any type were excluded.  Discrimination of the prognostic models was assessed by the C statistic, and calibration assessed by calibration plots.  3723 women were included for analysis, of whom 181 (4.9%) developed gestational diabetes mellitus in pregnancy. 12 prognostic models for the disorder could be validated in the cohort. C statistics ranged from 0.67 to 0.78. Calibration plots showed that eight of the 12 models were well calibrated. The four models with the highest C statistics included almost all of the following predictors: maternal age, maternal body mass index, history of gestational diabetes mellitus, ethnicity, and family history of diabetes. Prognostic models had a similar performance in a subgroup of nulliparous women only. Decision curve analysis showed that the use of these four models always had a positive net benefit.  In this external validation study, most of the published prognostic models for gestational diabetes mellitus show acceptable discrimination and calibration. The four models with the highest discriminative abilities in this study cohort, which also perform well in a subgroup of nulliparous women, are easy models to apply in clinical practice and therefore deserve further evaluation regarding their clinical impact. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Finding Risk Groups by Optimizing Artificial Neural Networks on the Area under the Survival Curve Using Genetic Algorithms.

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Kalderstam, Jonas; Edén, Patrik; Ohlsson, Mattias

2015-01-01

We investigate a new method to place patients into risk groups in censored survival data. Properties such as median survival time, and end survival rate, are implicitly improved by optimizing the area under the survival curve. Artificial neural networks (ANN) are trained to either maximize or minimize this area using a genetic algorithm, and combined into an ensemble to predict one of low, intermediate, or high risk groups. Estimated patient risk can influence treatment choices, and is important for study stratification. A common approach is to sort the patients according to a prognostic index and then group them along the quartile limits. The Cox proportional hazards model (Cox) is one example of this approach. Another method of doing risk grouping is recursive partitioning (Rpart), which constructs a decision tree where each branch point maximizes the statistical separation between the groups. ANN, Cox, and Rpart are compared on five publicly available data sets with varying properties. Cross-validation, as well as separate test sets, are used to validate the models. Results on the test sets show comparable performance, except for the smallest data set where Rpart's predicted risk groups turn out to be inverted, an example of crossing survival curves. Cross-validation shows that all three models exhibit crossing of some survival curves on this small data set but that the ANN model manages the best separation of groups in terms of median survival time before such crossings. The conclusion is that optimizing the area under the survival curve is a viable approach to identify risk groups. Training ANNs to optimize this area combines two key strengths from both prognostic indices and Rpart. First, a desired minimum group size can be specified, as for a prognostic index. Second, the ability to utilize non-linear effects among the covariates, which Rpart is also able to do.

Prognostic value of myocardial perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography for the prediction of future cardiac events in a Japanese population. A middle-term follow-up study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsumoto, Naoya; Sato, Yuichi; Suzuki, Yasuyuki

2007-01-01

The prognostic value of rest 201 Tl/stress 99m Tc-tetrofosmin myocardial perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) for the prediction of future hard cardiac events, including acute myocardial infarction (AMI), unstable angina (UAP) and cardiac death, and the implications for risk stratification has not yet been defined in a Japanese population. The 1,988 patients who underwent rest 201 Tl/stress 99m Tc-tetrofosmin SPECT were identified and followed up for the occurrence of AMI, UAP and cardiac death. The mean follow-up interval was 26.9±15.8 months. The 142 patients were revascularized within 60 days after SPECT and they were censored from the prognostic analysis. Summed stress score (SSS), summed rest score and summed difference score (SDS) were calculated using a 5-point scoring (Normal: 0, No uptake: 4) and a 20-segment model; 22 cases of myocardial infarction, 31 of UAP and 22 cardiac deaths occurred (1.2%, 1.7% and 1.2%, respectively). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that hypertension (Wald 6.37, p<0.05) and SDS (Wald 8.77, p<0.01) were independent predictors of AMI and UAP. Advanced age (Wald 16.0, p<0.001), SSS (Wald 10.9, p<0.01) and SDS (Wald 4.58, p<0.05) were independent predictors of cardiac death. Myocardial perfusion SPECT yields prognostic information toward the identification of acute coronary syndrome and cardiac death. (author)

Prognostic factors in Acanthamoeba keratitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaiserman, Igor; Bahar, Irit; McAllum, Penny; Srinivasan, Sathish; Elbaz, Uri; Slomovic, Allan R; Rootman, David S

2012-06-01

To assess the prognostic factors influencing visual prognosis and length of treatment after acanthamoeba keratitis (AK). Forty-two AK eyes of 41 patients treated between 1999 and 2006 were included. A diagnosis of AK was made on the basis of culture results with a corresponding clinical presentation. We calculated the prognostic effect of the various factors on final visual acuity and the length of treatment. Multivariate regression analysis was used to adjust for the simultaneous effects of the various prognostic factors. Mean follow-up was 19.7 ± 21.0 months. Sixty-four percent of cases had > 1 identified risk factor for AK, the most common risk factor being contact lens wear (92.9% of eyes). At presentation, median best spectacle corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was 20/200 (20/30 to Hand Motion [HM]) that improved after treatment to 20/50 (20/20 to Counting Fingers [CF]). Infection acquired by swimming or related to contact lenses had significantly better final BCVA (p = 0.03 and p = 0.007, respectively). Neuritis and pseudodendrites were also associated with better final BCVA (p = 0.04 and p = 0.05, respectively). Having had an epithelial defect on presentation and having been treated with topical steroid were associated with worse final best spectacle corrected visual acuity (BSCVA) (p = 0.0006 and p = 0.04). Multivariate regression analysis found a good initial visual acuity (p = 0.002), infections related to swimming (p = 0.01), the absence of an epithelial defect (p = 0.03), having been treated with chlorhexidine (p = 0.05), and not having receive steroids (p = 0.003) to significantly forecast a good final BCVA. We identified several prognostic factors that can help clinicians evaluate the expected visual damage of the AK infection and thus tailor treatment accordingly. Copyright © 2012 Canadian Ophthalmological Society. All rights reserved.

Long time durability tests of fabric inlet stratification pipes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Elsa; Furbo, Simon

2008-01-01

and that this destroys the capability of building up thermal stratification for the fabric inlet stratification pipe. The results also show that although dirt, algae etc. are deposited in the fabric pipes in the space heating tank, the capability of the fabric inlet stratifiers to build up thermal stratification...

A reconceptualization of age stratification in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, P; Lai, K H

1983-09-01

Using the concepts of age stratification theory--age effect, cohort effect, and subcohort differences--this paper provides a new perspective on age stratification in China. Currently, the literature suggests that the status of elderly people declined after the Communist Revolution and will further decline with modernization. We discuss the problems with this perspective and argue, instead, that the status of elderly adults did not decline for the majority of the aged during the Maoist years. Rather, the most important change in the age stratification system during the Maoist years was the change in the criterion of age stratification--from age differences to cohort and subcohort differences. Furthermore, the subcohort of elderly adults who suffered the most status decline during the Maoist years--the bourgeoisie--may actually enjoy an increase in status with the recent modernization impetus. Research suggestions from this new perspective are discussed.

Risk stratification by using non-invasive radionuclide imaging in patients with unstable angina spec tories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saghari, M.

2002-01-01

Unstable angina represents a heterogeneous spectrum of clinical entities between chronic stable angina and acute myocardial infraction. Acute ischemic syndromes (including unstable angina) result from abrupt reduction in coronary flow, frequently after atherosclerotic plaque disruption and with or without associated thrombosis or vasospasm. Nuclear cardiology studies and in particular, myocardial perfusion imaging are powerful noninvasive tools for detecting and assessing the severity of acute ischemic syndromes, including unstable angina pec tories. The information derived from a nuclear cardiology study can answer unresolved clinical question and aid in subsequent patient management, specifically jeopardized myocardium detected during spontaneously occurring acute chest pain or controlled stress testing are important determinant of: 1) The need for admission to an intensive care monitoring unit 2) The need for and urgency of coronary angiography 3) The appropriate use of percutaneous or surgical coronary revascularization procedures. Extensive information suggests the stress nuclear perfusion imaging is the best validated technique for predischarge risk stratification with unstable angina patients who have been medically stabilized. Early information suggests avoidance of unecessary coronary angiography or revascularization is the cost effective strategy

Validation of EORTC Prognostic Factors for Adults With Low-Grade Glioma: A Report Using Intergroup 86-72-51

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daniels, Thomas B.; Brown, Paul D.; Felten, Sara J.; Wu, Wenting; Buckner, Jan C.; Arusell, Robert M.; Curran, Walter J.; Abrams, Ross A.; Schiff, David; Shaw, Edward G.

2011-01-01

Purpose: A prognostic index for survival was constructed and validated from patient data from two European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) radiation trials for low-grade glioma (LGG). We sought to independently validate this prognostic index with a separate prospectively collected data set (Intergroup 86-72-51). Methods and Materials: Two hundred three patients were treated in a North Central Cancer Treatment Group-led trial that randomized patients with supratentorial LGG to 50.4 or 64.8 Gy. Risk factors from the EORTC prognostic index were analyzed for prognostic value: histology, tumor size, neurologic deficit, age, and tumor crossing the midline. The high-risk group was defined as patients with more than two risk factors. In addition, the Mini Mental Status Examination (MMSE) score, extent of surgical resection, and 1p19q status were also analyzed for prognostic value. Results: On univariate analysis, the following were statistically significant (p < 0.05) detrimental factors for both progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS): astrocytoma histology, tumor size, and less than total resection. A Mini Mental Status Examination score of more than 26 was a favorable prognostic factor. Multivariate analysis showed that tumor size and MMSE score were significant predictors of OS whereas tumor size, astrocytoma histology, and MMSE score were significant predictors of PFS. Analyzing by the EORTC risk groups, we found that the low-risk group had significantly better median OS (10.8 years vs. 3.9 years, p < 0.0001) and PFS (6.2 years vs. 1.9 years, p < 0.0001) than the high-risk group. The 1p19q status was available in 66 patients. Co-deletion of 1p19q was a favorable prognostic factor for OS vs. one or no deletion (median OS, 12.6 years vs. 7.2 years; p = 0.03). Conclusions: Although the low-risk group as defined by EORTC criteria had a superior PFS and OS to the high-risk group, this is primarily because of the influence of

Serum Golgi protein 73 is a prognostic rather than diagnostic marker in hepatocellular carcinoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Min; Chen, Zhan-Hong; Li, Xing; Li, Xiao-Yun; Wen, Jing-Yun; Lin, Qu; Ma, Xiao-Kun; Wei, Li; Chen, Jie; Ruan, Dan-Yun; Lin, Ze-Xiao; Wang, Tian-Tian; Wu, Dong-Hao; Wu, Xiang-Yuan

2017-11-01

Serum Golgi protein 73 (sGP73) is a candidate diagnostic biomarker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, current evidence of its diagnostic value is conflicting, primarily due to the small sample sizes of previous studies, and its prognostic role in HCC also remains unclear. In the present study, sGP73 levels in 462 patients with HCC, 186 patients with liver cirrhosis, and 83 healthy controls were evaluated using ELISA, and it was identified that the median sGP73 levels were significantly higher in the HCC (18.7 ng/ml) and liver cirrhosis (18.5 ng/ml) patients than in the healthy controls (0 ng/ml; both P<0.001); however, the levels did not significantly differ between the HCC and liver cirrhosis groups (P=0.632). sGP73 had an inferior sensitivity and specificity for HCC diagnosis (27.79 and 77.96%, respectively) compared with α-fetoprotein (57.36 and 90.96%, respectively; P<0.001). In the HCC group, a high level of sGP73 was associated with aggressive clinicopathological features and independently predicted poor overall survival (OS) time (P<0.001). Additionally, in patients with resectable HCC, a high level of sGP73 was associated with significantly decreased disease-free survival (P<0.001) and OS (P=0.039) times compared with a low level of sGP73. This study demonstrated that sGP73 is unsuitable as a diagnostic marker for the early detection of HCC; however, it is an independent negative prognostic marker, providing a novel risk stratification factor and a potential therapeutic molecular target for HCC.

E2F3a gene expression has prognostic significance in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Kai-Ling; Mei, Yan-Yan; Cui, Lei; Zhao, Xiao-Xi; Li, Wei-Jing; Gao, Chao; Liu, Shu-Guang; Jiao, Ying; Liu, Fei-Fei; Wu, Min-Yuan; Ding, Wei; Li, Zhi-Gang

2014-10-01

To study E2F3a expression and its clinical significance in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). We quantified E2F3a expression at diagnosis in 148 children with ALL by real-time PCR. In the test cohort (n = 48), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to find the best cut-off point to divide the patients into E2F3a low- and high-expression groups. The prognostic significance of E2F3a expression was investigated in the test cohort and confirmed in the validation cohort (n = 100). The correlations of E2F3a expression with the clinical features and treatment outcome of these patients were analyzed. ROC curve analysis indicated that the best cut-off point of E2F3a expression was 0.3780. In the test cohort, leukemia-free survival (LFS) and event-free survival (EFS) of the low-expression group were lower than those of the high-expression group (log rank: P = 0.026 for both). This finding was verified in the validation cohort. LFS, EFS, and overall survival were also lower in the low-expression group than in the high-expression group (log rank, P = 0.015, 0.008, and 0.002 respectively). E2F3a low expression was correlated with the existence of BCR-ABL fusion. An algorithm composed of E2F3a expression and minimal residual disease (MRD) could predict relapse or induction failure more precisely than current risk stratification. These results were still significant in the ALL patients without BCR-ABL fusion. Low expression of E2F3a was associated with inferior prognosis in childhood ALL. An algorithm composed of E2F3a expression and MRD could predict relapse or induction failure more precisely than that of the current risk stratification. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Value of routine admission laboratory tests to predict thirty-day mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sjauw, KD; Van der Horst, ICC; Nijsten, MWN; Nieuwland, W; Zijlstra, F

2006-01-01

Most risk-stratification instruments that have been developed to predict outcome after myocardial infarction do not make use of laboratory parameters, although several laboratory parameters have, been shown to be predictors of adverse outcome. To assess the prognostic value of routine admission

Carboxyhemoglobin and methemoglobin levels as prognostic markers in acute pulmonary embolism.

Science.gov (United States)

Kakavas, Sotirios; Papanikolaou, Aggeliki; Ballis, Evangelos; Tatsis, Nikolaos; Goga, Christina; Tatsis, Georgios

2015-04-01

Carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) and methemoglobin (MetHb) levels have been associated with a poor outcome in patients with various pathological conditions including cardiovascular diseases. Our aim was to retrospectively assess the prognostic value of arterial COHb and MetHb in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We conducted a retrospective study of 156 patients admitted in a pulmonary clinic due to acute PE. Measured variables during emergency department evaluation that were retrospectively analyzed included the ratio of the partial pressure of oxygen in arterial blood to the fraction of oxygen in inspired gas, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, risk stratification indices, and arterial blood gases. The association between arterial COHb and MetHb levels and disease severity or mortality was evaluated using bivariate tests and logistic regression analysis. Arterial COHb and MetHb levels correlated with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and pulmonary severity index scores. Furthermore, arterial COHb and MetHb levels were associated with troponin T and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels. In univariate logistic regression analysis, COHb and MetHb levels were both significantly associated with an increased risk of death. However, in multivariate analysis, only COHb remained significant as an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality. Our preliminary data suggest that arterial COHb and MetHb levels reflect the severity of acute PE, whereas COHb levels are independent predictors of in hospital death in patients in this clinical setting. These findings require further prospective validation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic value of fasting versus nonfasting low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels on long-term mortality: insight from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (NHANES-III).

Science.gov (United States)

Doran, Bethany; Guo, Yu; Xu, Jinfeng; Weintraub, Howard; Mora, Samia; Maron, David J; Bangalore, Sripal

2014-08-12

National and international guidelines recommend fasting lipid panel measurement for risk stratification of patients for prevention of cardiovascular events. However, the prognostic value of fasting versus nonfasting low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is uncertain. Patients enrolled in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (NHANES-III), a nationally representative cross-sectional survey performed from 1988 to 1994, were stratified on the basis of fasting status (≥8 or fasting and nonfasting cohorts with similar baseline characteristics. The risk of outcomes as a function of LDL-C and fasting status was assessed with the use of receiver operating characteristic curves and bootstrapping methods. The interaction between fasting status and LDL-C was assessed with Cox proportional hazards modeling. Primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcome was cardiovascular mortality. One-to-one matching based on propensity score yielded 4299 pairs of fasting and nonfasting individuals. For the primary outcome, fasting LDL-C yielded prognostic value similar to that for nonfasting LDL-C (C statistic=0.59 [95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.61] versus 0.58 [95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.60]; P=0.73), and LDL-C by fasting status interaction term in the Cox proportional hazards model was not significant (Pinteraction=0.11). Similar results were seen for the secondary outcome (fasting versus nonfasting C statistic=0.62 [95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.66] versus 0.62 [95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.66]; P=0.96; Pinteraction=0.34). Nonfasting LDL-C has prognostic value similar to that of fasting LDL-C. National and international agencies should consider reevaluating the recommendation that patients fast before obtaining a lipid panel. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Various manifestations of stratification phenomenon during intravenous cholangiography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tada, S; Nanjo, M; Kino, M; Sekiya, T; Harada, J; Kuroda, T; Anno, I [Jikei Univ., Tokyo (Japan). School of Medicine

1979-07-01

A classification has been made of various types of stratification phenomenon during intravenous cholangiography. The stage of gallbladder opacification in the recumbent position has been classified as (I) mottled, (II) dendritic, (III) ring-like, and (IV) homogeneous. 'Dendritic' type of stratification phenomenon has never been reported in the literature to our knowledge. At 20 min following infusion of contrast material homogeneous opacification of the gallbladder was noticed in only 14% of patients. The others fell into types I, II or III of stratification phenomenon. In contrast, 87% of the opacified gallbladders were homogeneous on the after fatty meal film. It is therefore mandatory for diagnosis that either a 24 h film or a fatty meal film be taken to avoid the stratification phenomenon.

Various manifestations of stratification phenomenon during intravenous cholangiography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tada, S.; Nanjo, M.; Kino, M.; Sekiya, T.; Harada, J.; Kuroda, T.; Anno, I.

1979-01-01

A classification has been made of various types of stratification phenomenon during intravenous cholangiography. The stage of gallbladder opacification in the recumbent position has been classified as (I) mottled, (II) dendritic, (III) ring-like, and (IV) homogeneous. 'Dendritic' type of stratification phenomenon has never been reported in the literature to our knowledge. At 20 min following infusion of contrast material homogeneous opacification of the gallbladder was noticed in only 14% of patients. The others fell into types I, II or III of stratification phenomenon. In contrast, 87% of the opacified gallbladders were homogeneous on the after fatty meal film. It is therefore mandatory for diagnosis that either a 24 h film or a fatty meal film be taken to avoid the stratification phenomenon. (author)

An ischemia-guided approach for risk stratification in patients with acute coronary syndromes.

Science.gov (United States)

Pepine, C J

2000-12-28

attention to early risk stratification is essential in the ischemia-guided approach. The Braunwald classification for unstable angina helps identify independent clinical predictors of a poor outcome; high risk is clearly associated with Braunwald class III and type C. Electrocardiographic and biochemical markers for myocardial necrosis (cardiac troponin T or I) are important tools for assessing the presence and degree of ischemia and associated risk for adverse outcome. Noninvasive evaluation of left ventricular ejection fraction is essential for identifying those at high risk due to impaired contractile function. When these conventional markers do not provide conclusive information, noninvasive stress testing is most helpful to further identify those at highest risk for revascularization.

Wdr66 is a novel marker for risk stratification and involved in epithelial-mesenchymal transition of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Qing; Ma, Chenming; Kemmner, Wolfgang

2013-01-01

We attempted to identify novel biomarkers and therapeutic targets for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma by gene expression profiling of frozen esophageal squamous carcinoma specimens and examined the functional relevance of a newly discovered marker gene, WDR66. Laser capture microdissection technique was applied to collect the cells from well-defined tumor areas in collaboration with an experienced pathologist. Whole human gene expression profiling of frozen esophageal squamous carcinoma specimens (n = 10) and normal esophageal squamous tissue (n = 18) was performed using microarray technology. A gene encoding WDR66, WD repeat-containing protein 66 was significantly highly expressed in esophageal squamous carcinoma specimens. Microarray results were validated by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) in a second and independent cohort (n = 71) consisting of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (n = 25), normal esophagus (n = 11), esophageal adenocarcinoma (n = 13), gastric adenocarcinoma (n = 15) and colorectal cancers (n = 7). In order to understand WDR66’s functional relevance siRNA-mediated knockdown was performed in a human esophageal squamous cell carcinoma cell line, KYSE520 and the effects of this treatment were then checked by another microarray analysis. High WDR66 expression was significantly associated with poor overall survival (P = 0.031) of patients suffering from esophageal squamous carcinomas. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that WDR66 expression remained an independent prognostic factor (P = 0.042). WDR66 knockdown by RNA interference resulted particularly in changes of the expression of membrane components. Expression of vimentin was down regulated in WDR66 knockdown cells while that of the tight junction protein occludin was markedly up regulated. Furthermore, siRNA-mediated knockdown of WDR66 resulted in suppression of cell growth and reduced cell motility. WDR66 might be a useful biomarker for risk

Modeling Multimodal Stratification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boeriis, Morten

2017-01-01

. The article outlines a theoretical experiment exploring how an alternative way of modeling stratification and instantiation may raise some interesting ideas on the concepts of realization dynamics, system-instance, and the different contexts of the semiotic text. This is elaborated in a discussion of how...

Prognostic factors in multiple myeloma: definition of risk groups in 410 previously untreated patients: a Grupo Argentino de Tratamiento de la Leucemia Aguda study.

Science.gov (United States)

Corrado, C; Santarelli, M T; Pavlovsky, S; Pizzolato, M

1989-12-01

Four hundred ten previously untreated multiple myeloma patients entered onto two consecutive Grupo Argentino de Tratamiento de la Leucemia Aguda (GATLA) protocols were analyzed to identify significant prognostic factors influencing survival. The univariate analysis selected the following variables: performance status, renal function, percentage of bone marrow plasma cells at diagnosis, hemoglobin, and age. A multivariate analysis showed that performance status, renal function, percentage of bone marrow plasma cells, hemoglobin, and age were the best predictive variables for survival. A score was assigned to each patient according to these variables, which led to their classification in three groups: good, intermediate, and poor risk, with a probability of survival of 26% and 10% at 96 months, and 5% at 56 months, and median survival of 60, 37, and 14 months, respectively (P = .0000). In our patient population, this model proved to be superior to the Durie-Salmon staging system in defining prognostic risk groups, and separating patients with significantly different risks within each Durie-Salmon stage.

Volumetry based biomarker speed of growth: Quantifying the change of total tumor volume in whole-body magnetic resonance imaging over time improves risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Wennmann, Markus; Kintzelé, Laurent; Piraud, Marie; Menze, Bjoern H; Hielscher, Thomas; Hofmanninger, Johannes; Wagner, Barbara; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Merz, Maximilian; Hillengass, Jens; Langs, Georg; Weber, Marc-André

2018-05-18

The purpose of this study was to improve risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients, introducing new 3D-volumetry based imaging biomarkers derived from whole-body MRI. Two-hundred twenty whole-body MRIs from 63 patients with smoldering multiple myeloma were retrospectively analyzed and all focal lesions >5mm were manually segmented for volume quantification. The imaging biomarkers total tumor volume, speed of growth (development of the total tumor volume over time), number of focal lesions, development of the number of focal lesions over time and the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group were compared, taking 2-year progression rate, sensitivity and false positive rate into account. Speed of growth, using a cutoff of 114mm 3 /month, was able to isolate a high-risk group with a 2-year progression rate of 82.5%. Additionally, it showed by far the highest sensitivity in this study and in comparison to other biomarkers in the literature, detecting 63.2% of patients who progress within 2 years. Furthermore, its false positive rate (8.7%) was much lower compared to the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group. Therefore, speed of growth is the preferable imaging biomarker for risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease heterogeneity: challenges for health risk assessment, stratification and management.

Science.gov (United States)

Roca, Josep; Vargas, Claudia; Cano, Isaac; Selivanov, Vitaly; Barreiro, Esther; Maier, Dieter; Falciani, Francesco; Wagner, Peter; Cascante, Marta; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Kalko, Susana; De Mas, Igor; Tegnér, Jesper; Escarrabill, Joan; Agustí, Alvar; Gomez-Cabrero, David

2014-11-28

Heterogeneity in clinical manifestations and disease progression in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) lead to consequences for patient health risk assessment, stratification and management. Implicit with the classical "spill over" hypothesis is that COPD heterogeneity is driven by the pulmonary events of the disease. Alternatively, we hypothesized that COPD heterogeneities result from the interplay of mechanisms governing three conceptually different phenomena: 1) pulmonary disease, 2) systemic effects of COPD and 3) co-morbidity clustering, each of them with their own dynamics. To explore the potential of a systems analysis of COPD heterogeneity focused on skeletal muscle dysfunction and on co-morbidity clustering aiming at generating predictive modeling with impact on patient management. To this end, strategies combining deterministic modeling and network medicine analyses of the Biobridge dataset were used to investigate the mechanisms of skeletal muscle dysfunction. An independent data driven analysis of co-morbidity clustering examining associated genes and pathways was performed using a large dataset (ICD9-CM data from Medicare, 13 million people). Finally, a targeted network analysis using the outcomes of the two approaches (skeletal muscle dysfunction and co-morbidity clustering) explored shared pathways between these phenomena. (1) Evidence of abnormal regulation of skeletal muscle bioenergetics and skeletal muscle remodeling showing a significant association with nitroso-redox disequilibrium was observed in COPD; (2) COPD patients presented higher risk for co-morbidity clustering than non-COPD patients increasing with ageing; and, (3) the on-going targeted network analyses suggests shared pathways between skeletal muscle dysfunction and co-morbidity clustering. The results indicate the high potential of a systems approach to address COPD heterogeneity. Significant knowledge gaps were identified that are relevant to shape strategies aiming at

Major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation: Attention to modifiable bleeding risk factors or use of a bleeding risk stratification score? A nationwide cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Tze-Fan; Lip, Gregory Y H; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chung, Fa-Po; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chen, Shih-Ann

2018-03-01

While modifiable bleeding risks should be addressed in all patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), use of a bleeding risk score enables clinicians to 'flag up' those at risk of bleeding for more regular patient contact reviews. We compared a risk assessment strategy for major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) based on modifiable bleeding risk factors (referred to as a 'MBR factors' score) against established bleeding risk stratification scores (HEMORR 2 HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, ORBIT). A nationwide cohort study of 40,450 AF patients who received warfarin for stroke prevention was performed. The clinical endpoints included ICH and major bleeding. Bleeding scores were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (areas under the ROC curves [AUCs], or c-index) and the net reclassification index (NRI). During a follow up of 4.60±3.62years, 1581 (3.91%) patients sustained ICH and 6889 (17.03%) patients sustained major bleeding events. All tested bleeding risk scores at baseline were higher in those sustaining major bleeds. When compared to no ICH, patients sustaining ICH had higher baseline HEMORR 2 HAGES (p=0.003), HAS-BLED (pbleeding scores, c-indexes were significantly higher compared to MBR factors (pbleeding. C-indexes for the MBR factors score was significantly lower compared to all other scores (De long test, all pbleeding risk scores for major bleeding (all pbleeding risk scores had modest predictive value for predicting major bleeding but the best predictive value and NRI was found for the HAS-BLED score. Simply depending on modifiable bleeding risk factors had suboptimal predictive value for the prediction of major bleeding in AF patients, when compared to the HAS-BLED score. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

VTE Risk assessment - a prognostic Model: BATER Cohort Study of young women.

Science.gov (United States)

Heinemann, Lothar Aj; Dominh, Thai; Assmann, Anita; Schramm, Wolfgang; Schürmann, Rolf; Hilpert, Jan; Spannagl, Michael

2005-04-18

BACKGROUND: Community-based cohort studies are not available that evaluated the predictive power of both clinical and genetic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). There is, however, clinical need to forecast the likelihood of future occurrence of VTE, at least qualitatively, to support decisions about intensity of diagnostic or preventive measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A 10-year observation period of the Bavarian Thromboembolic Risk (BATER) study, a cohort study of 4337 women (18-55 years), was used to develop a predictive model of VTE based on clinical and genetic variables at baseline (1993). The objective was to prepare a probabilistic scheme that discriminates women with virtually no VTE risk from those at higher levels of absolute VTE risk in the foreseeable future. A multivariate analysis determined which variables at baseline were the best predictors of a future VTE event, provided a ranking according to the predictive power, and permitted to design a simple graphic scheme to assess the individual VTE risk using five predictor variables. RESULTS: Thirty-four new confirmed VTEs occurred during the observation period of over 32,000 women-years (WYs). A model was developed mainly based on clinical information (personal history of previous VTE and family history of VTE, age, BMI) and one composite genetic risk markers (combining Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A Mutation). Four levels of increasing VTE risk were arbitrarily defined to map the prevalence in the study population: No/low risk of VTE (61.3%), moderate risk (21.1%), high risk (6.0%), very high risk of future VTE (0.9%). In 10.6% of the population the risk assessment was not possible due to lacking VTE cases. The average incidence rates for VTE in these four levels were: 4.1, 12.3, 47.2, and 170.5 per 104 WYs for no, moderate, high, and very high risk, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our prognostic tool - containing clinical information (and if available also genetic data) - seems to be

Glasgow Prognostic Score is a predictor of perioperative and long-term outcome in patients with only surgically treated esophageal cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Vashist, Yogesh K; Loos, Julian; Dedow, Josephine; Tachezy, Michael; Uzunoglu, Guentac; Kutup, Asad; Yekebas, Emre F; Izbicki, Jakob R

2011-04-01

Systemic inflammation (SI) plays a pivotal role in cancer. C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin as parameters of SI form the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS). The purpose of the study was to evaluate the potential prognostic role of GPS in a homogeneous population of esophageal cancer (EC) patients undergoing only resection. GPS was evaluated on the basis of admission blood sample taken before surgery. Patients with a CRP L and albumin > 35 g/L were allocated to GPS0 group. If only CRP was increased or albumin decreased patients were allocated to the GPS1 and patients in whom CRP was ≥10 mg/L and albumin level ≤35 g/L were classified as GPS2. GPS was correlated to clinicopathological parameters and clinical outcome. Increasing GPS significantly correlated with more aggressive tumor biology in terms of tumor size (P GPS was identified as an independent prognosticator of perioperative morbidity (odds ratio 1.9; P = 0.03). In addition, a gradual decrease in disease-free and overall survival was evident between the three GPS subgroups. Survival differences between the GPS groups remained apparent even after stratification of the study population to underlying tumor type and nodal status. GPS was identified as a strong prognosticator of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio 2.5; P GPS represents a strong prognosticator of perioperative morbidity and long-term outcome in resected EC patients without neoadjuvant or adjuvant treatment.

Course, risk factors, and prognostic factors in elderly primary care patients with mild depression: a two-year observational study.

Science.gov (United States)

Magnil, Maria; Janmarker, Lena; Gunnarsson, Ronny; Björkelund, Cecilia

2013-03-01

The aim of this study was to observe course, risk factors, and prognostic factors in a primary care cohort aged > 60 with mild to moderate depression during two-year follow-up. Observational study. Primary care. During an 11-month period all (n = 302) consecutive patients aged 60 and above attending a primary care centre in Gothenburg, Sweden were screened by a nurse for depressive symptoms with the Primary Care Evaluation of Mental Disorders, Patient Questionnaire (PRIME-MD PQ) and the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale, self-rated version (MADRS-S) and by a GP with a patient-centred consultation model. In the second step, the GPs diagnosed depression in screen-positives by use of the PRIME-MD Clinical Evaluation Guide (PRIME-MD CEG). All patients with mild to moderate depression were followed up for two years to assess course with several MADRS-S score assessments. Main outcome measures. Risk factors, prognostic factors, and symptoms at baseline and after two years were tested with logistic regression, using the DSM-IV and MADRS-S (cut-off > 13) respectively. Course patterns were observed and described. A total of 54 patients were diagnosed with depression. Follow-up revealed declining median MADRS-S scores and three course patterns: remitting, stable, and fluctuating. History of depression, significant life events, lacking leisure activities, and use of sedatives were risk factors for depression, all previously known. An important finding was that lacking leisure activities also increased the risk of depressive symptoms after two years (odds ratio 12, confidence interval 1.1-136). It is desirable to identify elderly individuals with less severe depression. Three course patterns were observed; this finding requires further study of the clinical characteristics related to the different patterns. Awareness of risk factors may facilitate identification of those at highest risk of poor prognosis.

Improving risk stratification among veterans diagnosed with prostate cancer: impact of the 17-gene prostate score assay.

Science.gov (United States)

Lynch, Julie A; Rothney, Megan P; Salup, Raoul R; Ercole, Cesar E; Mathur, Sharad C; Duchene, David A; Basler, Joseph W; Hernandez, Javier; Liss, Michael A; Porter, Michael P; Wright, Jonathan L; Risk, Michael C; Garzotto, Mark; Efimova, Olga; Barrett, Laurie; Berse, Brygida; Kemeter, Michael J; Febbo, Phillip G; Dash, Atreya

2018-01-01

Active surveillance (AS) has been widely implemented within Veterans Affairs' medical centers (VAMCs) as a standard of care for low-risk prostate cancer (PCa). Patient characteristics such as age, race, and Agent Orange (AO) exposure may influence advisability of AS in veterans. The 17-gene assay may improve risk stratification and management selection. To compare management strategies for PCa at 6 VAMCs before and after introduction of the Oncotype DX Genomic Prostate Score (GPS) assay. We reviewed records of patients diagnosed with PCa between 2013 and 2014 to identify management patterns in an untested cohort. From 2015 to 2016, these patients received GPS testing in a prospective study. Charts from 6 months post biopsy were reviewed for both cohorts to compare management received in the untested and tested cohorts. Men who just received their diagnosis and have National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) very low-, low-, and select cases of intermediate-risk PCa. Patient characteristics were generally similar in the untested and tested cohorts. AS utilization was 12% higher in the tested cohort compared with the untested cohort. In men younger than 60 years, utilization of AS in tested men was 33% higher than in untested men. AS in tested men was higher across all NCCN risk groups and races, particular in low-risk men (72% vs 90% for untested vs tested, respectively). Tested veterans exposed to AO received less AS than untested veterans. Tested nonexposed veterans received 19% more AS than untested veterans. Median GPS results did not significantly differ as a factor of race or AO exposure. Men who receive GPS testing are more likely to utilize AS within the year post diagnosis, regardless of age, race, and NCCN risk group. Median GPS was similar across racial groups and AO exposure groups, suggesting similar biology across these groups. The GPS assay may be a useful tool to refine risk assessment of PCa and increase rates of AS among clinically and